百事 (PEP) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PepsiCo's 2021 Fourth Quarter Earnings Question and Answer Session. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com.

早安，歡迎參加百事公司（PepsiCo）2021 年第四季財報問答環節。（接線員指示）今天的電話會議將被錄音，並將存檔於 www.pepsico.com。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Ravi Pamnani, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Pamnani, you may begin.

現在我很榮幸介紹投資人關係資深副總裁 Ravi Pamnani 先生。Pamnani 先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone has had a chance this morning to review our press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website.

謝謝接線員，各位早安。希望大家今天早上都已經有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿與事先準備的講稿，兩者皆可在我們的網站上取得。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. We may make forward-looking statements on today's call, including about our business plans, 2022 guidance, and long-term financial targets and the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, February 10, 2022, and we are under no obligation to update.

在開始之前，請留意我們的警示性聲明。我們可能在今天的電話會議中作出前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們的業務計畫、2022 年指引、長期財務目標，以及 COVID-19 疫情對我們業務可能造成的影響。前瞻性陳述本質上涉及風險與不確定性，且僅反映我們截至今日（2022 年 2 月 10 日）的觀點，我們沒有義務更新。

When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to our fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings release and 2021 Form 10-K available on pepsico.com for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and additional information regarding our results, including a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from forward-looking statements.

在討論我們的業績時，我們會引用非 GAAP 指標，該等指標會自已報告結果中排除某些項目。請參閱 pepsico.com 上的 2021 年第四季與全年財報新聞稿，以及 2021 年 Form 10-K，以取得非 GAAP 指標的定義與調節表，以及關於我們業績的其他資訊，包括可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異之因素的討論。

Joining me today are PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, Ramon Laguarta; and PepsiCo's Vice Chairman and CFO, Hugh Johnston. (Operator Instructions)

今天與我一同出席的有百事公司董事長兼執行長 Ramon Laguarta，以及百事公司副董事長兼財務長 Hugh Johnston。（接線員指示）

And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

那麼，接下來我把時間交給接線員進行第一個提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Dara Mohsenian。

So I wanted to focus on the 2022 top line guidance. Obviously, very strong Q4 results. But look, you're guiding towards the higher end of the long-term range in terms of 6% organic sales growth in 2022 despite a really tough comparison if we look at 2021. So I just wanted to understand the key drivers for 2022 top line, particularly price mix versus volume. And any thoughts on demand elasticity?

我想聚焦在 2022 年營收端（top line）指引。顯然第四季表現非常強勁。但你們在 2022 年仍指引有機銷售成長 6%，位於長期區間的高端，且若看 2021 年，基期比較其實很艱難。我想了解 2022 年營收端的主要驅動因素，特別是價格/組合（price mix）相對於銷量（volume）。以及對需求價格彈性（demand elasticity）有何看法？

And then also just from a broader long-term perspective as you look out beyond 2022, are you more confident your strategies are sustainably paying off? Could top line growth be more at the higher end of that mid-single-digit long-term top line range? How do you think about the long term beyond 2022, given what's expected to be pretty robust growth despite the tough comp?

另外，從更廣泛的長期角度來看，當你們展望 2022 年之後，是否更有信心你們的策略正在以可持續的方式奏效？營收成長是否可能更偏向長期中個位數成長區間的高端？在預期即使基期艱難仍會有相當強勁成長的情況下，你們如何看待 2022 年之後的長期表現？

Yes. Dara, let me start and maybe Hugh can add. We see our categories very healthy moving into '22 and long term, both our convenient foods and beverages. So that makes us feel very comfortable. The investments that we have made over the last 3 years in brands, in more capable go-to-market systems, in more insights, better execution, that's clearly paying off in the form of share of market gains in -- across multiple developing markets, snacks and beverages.

是的，Dara，我先回答，Hugh 也可以補充。我們看到我們的品類在進入 2022 年以及長期都非常健康，無論是便利食品還是飲料。因此我們感到非常放心。過去 3 年我們在品牌、更有能力的市場進入（go-to-market）系統、更深入的洞察、更好的執行等方面所做的投資，顯然正在帶來回報，表現在我們於多個開發中市場的零食與飲料業務上取得市占提升。

So we feel good about our ability to continue to grow ahead of our categories in '22 and beyond. And obviously, we are big players in those categories. So we carry the responsibility to make this category stay healthy and stay growing faster than food overall. So that's how we see our long term.

因此，我們對於在 2022 年及之後持續跑贏品類成長的能力感到樂觀。而且顯然，我們在這些品類中是大型參與者，因此也肩負責任，讓這些品類保持健康，並維持其成長速度快於整體食品。這就是我們對長期的看法。

And yes, we -- obviously, if you think about next year, yes, we're at the top end of our long-term guidance. This year, obviously, we -- I mean, last year, we obviously crossed that long-term guidance. So you see compounded, yes, we're at the high end of our 4% to 6%. And obviously, we -- that's the objective of the whole organization, to stay within the -- that guidance and beat it in good years.

是的。而且我們——顯然，如果你看明年，是的，我們位於長期指引的高端。今年——顯然我們——我是說去年，我們顯然超越了那個長期指引。所以從複合角度來看，是的，我們位於 4% 到 6% 區間的高端。而且顯然，整個組織的目標就是維持在該指引範圍內，並在好的年度超越它。

Yes. And the only thing I'll add there in terms of some of the financial pieces that you saw in Q4, we had about 5 points of volume and about 7 points of price/mix. Obviously, we're -- as our hedges roll off and we move into a new round of commodities, we're going to price in a way that allows us, at least for the full year, to try to keep our margins pretty well intact, which means that, that 7 pricing will probably be around there. Maybe even a little bit stronger for the year.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，關於你在第四季看到的一些財務面向，我們大約有 5 個點來自銷量，約 7 個點來自價格/組合。顯然，隨著我們的避險部位到期、並進入新一輪大宗商品成本環境，我們將以一種定價方式來操作，至少在全年層面，力求讓我們的利潤率大致維持完整，這意味著那個 7 的定價幅度大概會在相近水準，甚至全年可能還會更強一些。

We'll see how it plays out and react to what happens with the facts in the marketplace. But it's going to be a pretty healthy pricing year to accommodate the cost increases.

我們會看實際情況如何發展，並根據市場上的事實做出反應。但為了吸收成本上升，這將會是相當健康的一年定價。

And if I can follow up or -- what are you assuming in terms of demand elasticity? And what's been the experience so far you've seen in terms of consumer demand elasticity to pricing? It seemed like there clearly wasn't a lot in Q4, but what are you assuming for 2022?

如果我可以追問——你們對需求價格彈性的假設是什麼？到目前為止，你們在消費者對漲價的需求彈性方面看到的經驗如何？看起來第四季顯然彈性不大，但你們對 2022 年的假設是什麼？

Yes. So I mean, for '22, Dara, you're right. Obviously, there wasn't a lot in Q4, but that's a relatively short period of time. Right now, we've built multiple scenarios around elasticity. And we have plans to react to any of them. So frankly, we'll -- we're going to have to be very agile this year in the way that we plan. But you know that our history on guidance is, we tend to have multiple ways to get there, and we'll react to what the marketplace gives us.

是的。Dara，就 2022 年而言，你說得對，第四季顯然彈性不大，但那是一段相對短的期間。現在我們已針對彈性建立了多種情境，並且對每一種情境都準備了應對計畫。所以坦白說，今年我們在規劃方式上必須非常敏捷。但你也知道，我們在指引方面一向的做法是：通常有多種路徑可以達成目標，我們會對市場給我們的情況做出反應。

I think, Dara, if you think about all the investments we've made in the last few years, both in the brand's strength or some of our net revenue capabilities, even our execution capabilities, the granularity that we can execute in the stores, that's clearly giving us a lot of, I would say, tools to play the marketplace and to manage the price increases in better ways than we used to do it in the past. So we're also contemplating that as a factor as we're building our '22 scenarios.

Dara，我認為如果你回顧過去幾年我們所做的所有投資，無論是在品牌力、部分淨營收能力（net revenue capabilities），甚至是執行能力、以及我們在門店端能夠以更細緻粒度執行的能力，這些都明顯為我們提供了很多工具，讓我們能在市場上靈活操作，並以比過去更好的方式管理漲價。因此，在建立 2022 年情境時，我們也把這點納入考量。

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Bonnie Herzog。

All right. Actually had a question on your A&M spend in the quarter. I guess, on a dollar basis, it seemed to have almost doubled in the quarter versus Q3 and then came in at maybe a record as a percentage of sales at almost 8% in the quarter versus your typical call it, I don't know, 6.5%. So I just was hoping you guys could give us a little more color on where you stepped up the spending in the quarter, and then how much do you think that did contribute to your robust top line growth in Q4.

好的。我其實想問你們本季的 A&M 支出。我想以金額來看，本季相較第三季似乎幾乎翻倍；而且以銷售百分比來看，本季接近 8%，可能創下紀錄，相較你們一般大概 6.5% 左右。所以我希望你們能多提供一些細節，說明本季在哪些方面加大了支出，以及你們認為這對第四季強勁的營收端成長貢獻有多大。

And then thinking about it, typically, there is a lag with spending. So I'm also wondering if this is partly what you expect to drive your top line guidance at the high end of your long-term growth [algo].

另外再想一下，通常支出會有滯後效應。所以我也想知道，這是否部分是你們預期能推動營收端指引位於長期成長[algo]高端的原因？

Yes. Bonnie, it's Hugh. A couple of things on that. One, A&M for the year was up 11%. For the quarter, it was up 15%. But remember, when you're dealing with the quarter, that's not necessarily what's in the marketplace. That's sort of the A&M curve, and we book A&M on the revenue curve.

是的，Bonnie，我是 Hugh。這裡有幾點。第一，全年 A&M 成長 11%；就單季而言，成長 15%。但請記得，當你看單季時，那不一定代表市場端實際發生的情況。那比較像是 A&M 的曲線，而我們是依照營收曲線來入帳 A&M。

In terms of spend, it was -- spend was up in the quarter for sure. I don't know that it was disproportionately up relative to the rest of the year. And in terms of go-forward, I expect our A&M, as it generally has, will probably be in or around the same level of growth as the sales growth number is.

就支出而言，本季支出確實增加。我不確定相對於全年其他季度是否有不成比例地增加。至於未來展望，我預期我們的 A&M 一如以往，大致會與銷售成長數字維持相同或相近的成長幅度。

Obviously, we feel terrific about the advertising we're doing. We think it's having the right impact. But we clearly were the beneficiaries of, in North America, some reduction. And we think that's also played well. We generally are spending at a competitive level, and we're trying to compete on quality of the A&M, not necessarily the quantity of the A&M.

顯然，我們對正在進行的廣告投放感到非常滿意。我們認為它正在產生正確的影響。但我們在北美也明顯受益於某些程度的減少，我們認為這同樣帶來了良好效果。整體而言，我們的支出水準通常維持在具競爭力的水平，我們努力在 A&M 的品質上競爭，而不一定是在 A&M 的數量上競爭。

Yes. Bonnie, one of the things we're -- I think we're getting better at is measuring our return on investment on our marketing. And we're -- the more data we have, and obviously, we're becoming a better data company, we're able to put better numbers to those investments and have the marketing teams and the commercial teams overall choosing different levers that give us the best return overall. And that's playing very well.

是的。Bonnie，我們——我想我們正在變得更擅長的一件事，是衡量我們行銷投資的投資報酬率。我們——資料越多，而且顯然我們正成為一家更擅長數據的公司，我們就越能為這些投資量化出更好的數字，並讓行銷團隊以及整體商務團隊選擇不同的槓桿，以帶來整體最佳回報。而這一點運作得非常好。

It's obviously one of the reasons why we're gaining market share across many categories. It's -- strategically, we want to continue with this kind of investments, being very rational in the way we invest in A&M, but understanding that a company like ours, the core competence is building brands. And that's what give us, in situations like we're having this year where we have to price, we have consumers following us in spite of higher prices. So I think strategically, it's a very important element in our overall growth strategy.

這顯然也是我們在許多品類中持續提升市占率的原因之一。從策略上來看，我們希望持續進行這類投資，以非常理性的方式投入A&M（廣告與行銷），但同時也要理解，像我們這樣的公司，核心能力就是打造品牌。而這也正是為什麼在像今年這樣我們必須調價的情況下，即使價格更高，消費者仍然會跟隨我們。所以我認為，從策略角度來看，這是我們整體成長策略中非常重要的一個要素。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

下一個問題來自Barclays的Lauren Lieberman。

Great. I wanted to just talk about PBNA volumes because accelerated sequentially and on a 2-year basis and now putting up growth on growth. And I was just curious how you might kind of bucket the drivers of that. And I'm going to guess, part of it, you're going to say, oh, it's a little bit of everything. But zeros have been in the market, I think, arguably all year. And I thought maybe there's something to be said for the reorganization of the markets and that may be starting to click in, in a different way. So just curious on any perspective on the accelerating trends in PBNA. That would be great.

很好。我想談談PBNA的銷量，因為它不僅在序列上加速，按兩年基礎來看也在加速，現在呈現「成長再成長」。我想知道你們會如何把驅動因素做一些歸類。我猜其中一部分你們會說，哦，可能各方面都有一些影響。但我認為，零糖產品（zeros）幾乎整年都在市場上。並且我在想，也許市場重組這件事值得一提，可能正以不同的方式開始發揮效果。所以想請教你們對PBNA加速趨勢的任何看法。那就太好了。

Yes. Lauren, the -- I would say, if you take a bigger picture, I think there is an elevated in-home consumption that has stayed like that. I think home as a hub is a clear trend, and we're seeing -- we're capturing pretty good consumption at home. And obviously, during the quarter, there's been more mobility across the multiple markets in the U.S., obviously. But -- globally, I would say. And then some of the away from home business has accelerated as well. So what you see there is a combination of all these channels, I think, playing at a very high level.

是的。Lauren——我會說，如果拉到更大的視角來看，我認為居家消費的提升已經維持在較高水準。我認為「家作為樞紐」是一個明確趨勢，而我們看到——我們在家中消費的捕捉表現相當不錯。當然，在本季度，美國多個市場的流動性更高了，這是顯而易見的。但——我會說在全球也是如此。同時，部分外出（away from home）業務也加速了。所以你看到的是這些通路的組合，我認為都在非常高的水準上運作。

Then if you go into our own business, I would say it's a combination of branding, better execution. And the truth is that in Q4, we've seen an improvement sequentially of our supply chain. And some of our large brands, and I would name Gatorade, for example, clearly has improved substantially in its running rates and fill rates in the last part of the quarter. So that's reflected as well in a better, overall performance for the business.

接著如果看我們自身的業務，我會說這是品牌力、更好的執行力的組合。事實上，在第四季，我們看到供應鏈狀況相較前一季有所改善。我們的一些大型品牌——例如我會點名Gatorade——在本季度後段，其運轉率與到貨/補貨率（fill rates）明顯大幅改善。因此這也反映在業務整體表現的提升上。

But we're very pleased in general with the way the North America business is performing in beverages and snacks as well. And both the margin expansion, the top line, the fact that it grew with the market a bit faster than the market in a very challenging year with a lot of supply chain complexities and bottlenecks for several reasons.

但總體而言，我們對北美業務在飲料以及零食方面的表現都非常滿意。無論是利潤率擴張、營收表現，還是在供應鏈複雜、瓶頸眾多且極具挑戰的一年裡，成長速度略快於市場的事實。

So we're very pleased. We're feeling comfortable as well for '22. It's very strong commercial programs, very strong brand programs. And as you were saying, probably a better execution machine, for many reasons, data and intelligence, but also more empowered organization that makes more local decisions, and that's obviously reflected in the performance of the business.

所以我們非常滿意。對於2022年我們也感到安心。我們有非常強的商業方案、非常強的品牌方案。正如你所說，可能也是一個更好的執行機器——原因很多，包括數據與洞察，但也包括更被賦權的組織，能做出更多在地決策，而這顯然反映在業務表現上。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自JPMorgan的Andrea Teixeira。

I have a question on sports drinks and then a clarification on the pricing. First, on Gatorade. It was a brand that obviously was pressured in 2021 from supply chain challenges and competition. And as you go into '22, can you talk about the supply dynamics there and inventory for the brand?

我有一個關於運動飲料的問題，然後還有一個關於定價的澄清。首先談Gatorade。這個品牌在2021年顯然受到供應鏈挑戰與競爭的壓力。展望2022年，你們能否談談該品牌的供應動態以及庫存狀況？

And then on the pricing, I think embedded in your guidance, I understand that it's assuming only the pricing that is already in the market. And therefore, I wanted to see if we can bridge from Hugh's comments and seeing the visibility of the gross margin curve potentially recovered by the end of the year and potentially being up year-over-year for the full year.

然後關於定價，我理解你們的指引中隱含的假設，是只包含目前已在市場上的定價。因此我想看看，能否把Hugh的評論串起來，並理解毛利率曲線是否有可能在年底前恢復，且全年可能實現年增。

Yes, Andrea. I'll -- let me talk to you about the Gatorade and then Hugh can talk more about the enterprise. We're very optimistic with this sports drink category. But we think of it broadly than just hydration, we think about overall nutrition. And the way Gatorade is playing in that space along with some other brands like Propel, Muscle Milk, EVOLVE and some other some other assets that we have in that space. It is growing very fast. We see continued consumer adoption of this category. Consumers are exercising more, and we think that's a very positive trend for the segment.

是的，Andrea。我——我先跟你談Gatorade，然後Hugh可以再多談一些整體面。我們對這個運動飲料品類非常樂觀。但我們對它的看法不僅僅是補水（hydration），而是更廣義的整體營養。Gatorade在這個領域的表現，以及我們在該領域的其他品牌，例如Propel、Muscle Milk、EVOLVE，以及我們在這個領域的其他一些資產，都成長得非常快。我們看到消費者對這個品類持續採用。消費者運動得更多，我們認為這對該細分市場是非常正面的趨勢。

When it comes to Gatorade, the brand equity is stronger than ever. And the innovation that we've done this year, and you will see more next year, be it Zero, be it Gatorade Light, be it some of the more science related with the Sweat Patch and how we can be much more customized for the consumer based on their hydration profile. So there's a lot of positive value that, I think, we can create in higher parts of the category with Gatorade and some of the other brands. So we feel good about the demand momentum.

談到Gatorade，品牌資產（brand equity）比以往任何時候都更強。今年我們所做的創新，以及你明年會看到更多的創新——不論是Zero、不論是Gatorade Light，或是一些更偏科學相關的創新，例如Sweat Patch，以及我們如何能根據消費者的補水特徵（hydration profile）提供更高度客製化的方案。所以我認為，我們能在品類中更高價值的區段，透過Gatorade以及其他一些品牌創造很多正向價值。因此我們對需求動能感到樂觀。

On the supply, obviously, we have reacted to the situation. And we've expanded capacity, both ourselves and some of our co-packers. And we're ready for what we think will be another year of successful growth for Gatorade and continue to build the brand in spaces that will be hard to match by a competitor. So that's how we are approaching Gatorade and the full category next year.

在供應方面，顯然我們已對情勢做出反應。我們擴充了產能，包括我們自己以及部分代工夥伴（co-packers）。我們已為我們認為將是Gatorade再度成功成長的一年做好準備，並持續在一些競爭對手難以匹敵的領域打造品牌。這就是我們明年對Gatorade以及整個品類的做法。

Yes. And I'll expand on the -- your question on the other side. Yes, our assumptions on the guidance are based on the pricing that we have in the marketplace right now. And that pricing is based on the visibility that we have into both the productivity and the cost structure and commodities, which we have pretty good visibility into. On the commodities about 8, 9 months of the year, as you would expect, based on some of the things I've communicated in the past. Q4 is a bit -- still a bit open, but there are obviously pricing windows as we get into the fourth quarter as well. So as those facts become more known, we'll make decisions on that front.

是的。我也補充一下——你在另一面提出的問題。是的，我們對指引的假設是基於我們目前在市場上的定價。而這些定價是基於我們對生產力（productivity）、成本結構以及大宗商品（commodities）的可視性，而我們對這些有相當不錯的掌握。就大宗商品而言，如你所預期，基於我過去溝通過的一些事項，我們對一年中約8到9個月有相當好的可視性。第四季仍然——還有一些不確定，但當我們進入第四季時也會有明顯的定價窗口。因此，隨著這些事實變得更清楚，我們會在那方面做出決策。

Regarding your question on margins, obviously, we don't give guidance on margins. But I think given the combination of what we know about costs and what we know about pricing, we ought to be able to get through the year pretty well intact on margins, acknowledging the fact that earlier in the year, the cost pressure is a little bit higher than it is later in the year.

至於你關於利潤率的問題，顯然我們不提供利潤率指引。但我認為，綜合我們對成本的掌握以及對定價的掌握，我們應該能在利潤率方面相當完整地度過這一年，同時也要承認，年初的成本壓力會比年末更高一些。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Bryan Spillane。

Just 2 -- maybe just 2 follow-ups. One is just, Hugh, your answer in response to Andrea's question. When you're saying margins, are you talking about EBIT margins or gross margins?

兩個——也許兩個追問。第一個是，Hugh，你在回應Andrea問題時的答案。你說的利潤率，是指EBIT利潤率還是毛利率？

Both actually.

其實兩者都是。

Okay. Okay. And then my question is about just the share repurchases coming back in this year. Hugh, can you talk a little bit about where we stand now in terms of cash return to shareholders? I think part of the motivation to maybe pull back on repurchases at the beginning of '21 was -- your CapEx is going to be elevated for a while. And I know you're watching the leverage -- the credit rating. So is this just a -- now you're -- there's more comfort with being able to return more cash to shareholders? Or is it a change in CapEx outlook? Just trying to understand if we can -- how you're thinking about that.

好的。好的。然後我的問題是關於今年恢復股票回購。Hugh，你能否談談我們目前在回饋股東現金（cash return to shareholders）方面的狀況？我想在2021年初可能縮減回購的部分動機是——你們的資本支出（CapEx）將在一段時間內維持較高水準。而且我知道你們也在關注槓桿——以及信用評等。所以這只是——現在你們對能夠回饋更多現金給股東更有信心了？還是資本支出展望有所改變？我只是想理解——你們是如何思考這件事的。

Yes. I mean we -- obviously, we made the decision not just based on what we see this year, but what we see over the next couple of years. Number one, we really had a pretty good year on cash generation last year, which gave us a little bit of extra room. In addition to that, obviously, we had the Tropicana transaction, which brought us some room as well. And we just really closed that over the course of the last week or so.

是的。我的意思是，我們——顯然，我們做出這個決定不僅是基於我們今年所看到的情況，也基於我們在未來幾年所看到的情況。第一，我們去年在現金創造方面確實有相當不錯的一年，這讓我們多了一點額外的空間。除此之外，顯然，我們也完成了 Tropicana 的交易，這也為我們帶來了一些空間。而且我們就在過去一週左右的時間內把那筆交易真正完成了交割。

So the combination of those 2 factors led us to the decision. As I mentioned last year, CapEx will be elevated for another year or 2. But frankly, I think that's well within the sort of overall envelope that we're working on, and we got comfortable with going back to share repurchase. And obviously, it's one of the levers we use to help drive company performance and shareholder returns.

因此，這兩個因素的組合促使我們做出這個決定。正如我去年提到的，資本支出（CapEx）在接下來一到兩年仍會維持在較高水準。但坦白說，我認為這完全在我們所運作的整體範圍之內，因此我們對於恢復股票回購感到放心。顯然，這也是我們用來協助推動公司表現與股東報酬的槓桿之一。

Our next question comes from Laurent Grandet with Guggenheim.

下一個問題來自 Guggenheim 的 Laurent Grandet。

Well, I do -- I'd like to focus this morning on the energy platform. So it has been about 2 years since the acquisition of Rockstar that unlocked the energy platform, an advantage PepsiCo has over your competitor, that is limited because of its contract with Monster. So could you please update us on where you are seeing your -- where you're heading? Because the beginning has been a bit more challenged than expected, with the difficulty with Bang management, Mtn Dew Rise name change and Rockstar taking a bit more time to [settle right]. So that is a high growth, high profitability segment of the business, it doesn't impact on PP&M and the rest of the business. So could you please update us on what you are seeing and where you're heading?

嗯，我——我想把今天早上的重點放在能量飲料平台上。自從收購 Rockstar、解鎖能量平台以來，已經大約兩年了；這是百事公司相較於競爭對手的一項優勢，因為對手受限於與 Monster 的合約。所以你能否更新一下你們目前看到的——你們要往哪裡走？因為一開始的進展比預期更具挑戰性，包括 Bang 的管理問題、Mtn Dew Rise 的更名，以及 Rockstar 需要更多時間來[穩定下來]。而這是一個高成長、高獲利的業務區隔，對 PP&M 和其他業務並沒有影響。所以你能否更新一下你們目前看到的情況以及未來方向？

Thank you, Laurent. Good to talk to you. Listen, we're executing the playbook, as we told you, we've been quite consistent on the last few calls. And we're quite pleased with what we're seeing.

謝謝你，Laurent。很高興和你交流。聽著，我們正在執行我們告訴過你們的作戰手冊；在過去幾次電話會議中，我們的說法一直相當一致。而且我們對目前看到的情況相當滿意。

Obviously, Rockstar, we always said it was the most complex transformation. We repositioned the brand, we changed packaging. We're seeing growth in Rockstar, both in the areas where it's more developed, areas of the country that's more developed and new areas, obviously, where the distribution system is making a difference. We're seeing especially very good performance in new innovation segments like no sugar and some more Hispanic-focused innovation. So we're hopeful on Rockstar, and we're seeing the metrics that we set for ourselves are becoming reality.

顯然，Rockstar 我們一直說它是最複雜的轉型。我們重新定位了品牌，也更換了包裝。我們看到 Rockstar 的成長，無論是在原本較成熟的區域、國內較成熟的地區，或是在新的地區——顯然，配送系統正在發揮作用。我們特別看到在新創新區隔（例如無糖）以及一些更聚焦西語裔的創新上表現非常好。因此我們對 Rockstar 抱持希望，也看到我們為自己設定的指標正在成為現實。

Then on Mountain Dew Energy, we had this legal situation, which we move very quickly. Super agile, actually. The teams did a great job turning that in 6 weeks. And it's in the market, and it's gone back to the platform exactly where it was. So clearly, there is a consumer that likes the product. And it's -- we're ready to now invest, obviously, this year, in building that platform under the Mountain Dew Energy branding. And that's a pretty good position even though we had that legal situation.

接著在 Mountain Dew Energy 方面，我們遇到這個法律情況，但我們處理得非常快。其實非常敏捷。團隊在 6 週內就把它扭轉過來，產品也已經在市場上，並且回到平台原本的位置。所以很明顯，有消費者喜歡這個產品。而且——我們也準備好在今年投入資源，在 Mountain Dew Energy 的品牌之下打造這個平台。即便曾有那個法律情況，這仍是一個相當不錯的位置。

With Bang, which was the other part of the strategy, we -- after that initial hiccup, I think we're -- actually, we're doing a pretty good job as a distributor of the brand, and the brand is more points of sale than it used to be. And we continue to focus on driving that performance during the length of the contract.

至於 Bang——這是策略的另一部分——在最初的小插曲之後，我認為我們——其實作為該品牌的經銷商，我們做得相當不錯，而且該品牌的銷售據點比以前更多。我們也會在合約期間持續專注於推動其表現。

And then -- but the other one that we're very pleased is the Starbucks relationship. That is -- that JV relationship is better than ever, I would say. And both Doubleshot, Tripleshot is growing at very high levels. And I don't know if you're aware, we just launched Baya Energy which is a full natural energy brand, new brand to the system. It's the first time we launched it both in retail and in Starbucks outlets. Great product, good levels of caffeine coming from natural source. We're very optimistic on that platform. It's very incremental if you see the full portfolio of brands that we have on energy. So Baya will be a positive addition incremental.

然後——但另一個讓我們非常滿意的是與 Starbucks 的合作關係。我會說，那個合資（JV）關係比以往任何時候都更好。而且 Doubleshot、Tripleshot 都以非常高的幅度成長。我不知道你是否知道，我們剛推出 Baya Energy，這是一個完全天然的能量品牌，是系統中的新品牌。這是我們第一次同時在零售通路與 Starbucks 門市推出。產品很棒，咖啡因含量水準良好，且來自天然來源。我們對這個平台非常樂觀。若你看我們在能量飲料上的完整品牌組合，這是非常增量的。因此 Baya 將會是一個正向的增量補充。

So I think the machine is firing in a lot of cylinders. It is -- as always, it is an area of focus. You need to test and learn and adjust and tweak your execution. I'm pleased with what I'm seeing.

所以我認為這台機器在很多方面都火力全開。它——一如既往——是一個重點領域。你需要測試與學習，並調整、微調你的執行。我對我所看到的感到滿意。

The other element that we don't talk so much about Rockstar is that this year, it's going to be in 17 international markets. It was in 10 markets. We expanded in '21 to -- I think it was 22, 23 markets. Now next year -- this year '22, we'll be in 70 markets. So clearly, another part of the growth story of Rockstar as we acquired the business. So we'll keep updating you in our regular calls, but we're positive on how the full energy strategy is working.

另外一個我們較少談到的 Rockstar 面向是：今年它將進入 17 個國際市場。之前是在 10 個市場。我們在 21 年擴張到——我想是 22、23 個市場。現在明年——今年 22 年——我們將進入 70 個市場。所以很明顯，這也是我們收購該業務後，Rockstar 成長故事的另一部分。我們會在例行電話會議中持續向你更新，但我們對整體能量策略的運作方式持正面看法。

Your next question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

I wanted to follow up, please, on Dara's question on price elasticities. Hugh, I appreciated your comment that you guys are looking at multiple scenarios and clearly do have a lot of levers at your disposal. But I was hoping you could dive a little bit more, please, on Pepsi Beverages North America. And specifically, how you think about cross-category elasticities across your U.S. beverage business. And as a quick follow-up to that, to the extent that consumers' ability to absorb pricing were to diminish at all, like are there certain categories you'd be watching more closely as a leading indicator of that?

我想延續 Dara 關於價格彈性的問題。Hugh，我很感謝你提到你們正在看多種情境，而且顯然手上有很多可運用的槓桿。但我希望你能更深入談談北美百事飲料（Pepsi Beverages North America）。具體來說，你如何看待你們美國飲料業務中跨品類的彈性？另外快速追問一下，如果消費者吸收漲價的能力有任何下降，你們會更密切關注哪些品類，把它們當作領先指標？

Yes. Happy to go there a bit. And as I said, elasticities to me are basically a portfolio of risks that we try to manage rather than kind of zeroing in a single number, right? And a portfolio as complex as this, it's hard to have that conversation.

是的。我很樂意多談一點。正如我所說，對我而言，彈性基本上是一個我們試圖管理的風險組合，而不是把焦點鎖定在單一數字上，對吧？像這樣複雜的組合，要進行那種對話其實很難。

What I would tell you, Vivien, that we've seen over the last couple of years is, in the North America beverage business, category elasticities are relatively low. I think the reason for that is, particularly in the multi-bag, multi-serve area, prices are pretty remarkably low, right? Whether you're looking at 2 liters or 12 packs. And if you compare those prices to elsewhere in the world, the prices in this market are actually quite low. It's a tremendous value for consumers.

Vivien，我可以告訴你的是，過去幾年我們在北美飲料業務看到的是：品類彈性相對較低。我認為原因在於，特別是在多包裝、多份量（multi-bag, multi-serve）領域，價格其實低得相當驚人，對吧？不論你看的是 2 公升裝或 12 入裝。如果你把這些價格與世界其他地方相比，這個市場的價格其實相當低。對消費者而言是非常高的價值。

So as we sort of move into a world of higher inflation, I do expect that the category prices probably will go up. And at least to date, we haven't seen much in the way of elasticity. As you might imagine, I can't point to any one. I think we sort of watch elasticities on everything, both the value packages and the premium packages. And the good news is our system is agile enough to react to it. But right now, the elasticities are in line with our expectations. And frankly, that's what gives us confidence in the guide for the year.

因此，當我們逐步進入一個通膨更高的世界時，我確實預期品類價格可能會上升。而至少到目前為止，我們沒有看到太多彈性的跡象。你可以想像，我無法指出任何單一項。我認為我們基本上會觀察所有產品的彈性，包括超值包裝與高端包裝。好消息是，我們的系統足夠敏捷，可以做出反應。但目前彈性符合我們的預期。坦白說，這也是讓我們對今年指引有信心的原因。

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Great. First, just a clarification on Laurent's line of questioning around energy. Ramon, can you just comment -- you mentioned firing on all cylinders and you're pleased with energy. Would you rule out M&A? So if you could just comment on that, that would be helpful. My broader strategic question is really on the business venture with Boston Beer regarding HARD MTN DEW. Can you just update us on how that partnership has progressed? And importantly, as you spend more time studying the alcohol space, can you provide some updated thoughts on broader ambitions to play, not only as it pertains to new product innovation, but also the potential to distribute non-PepsiCo alcohol products through your distribution?

很好。首先，針對 Laurent 關於能量飲料的提問，我想先釐清一下。Ramon，你能否評論——你提到火力全開，而且你對能量飲料很滿意。你會排除併購（M&A）的可能性嗎？如果你能就此評論一下，會很有幫助。我更廣泛的策略問題其實是關於與 Boston Beer 的業務合作案，也就是 HARD MTN DEW。你能否更新一下這個合作夥伴關係的進展？更重要的是，隨著你們花更多時間研究酒精飲品領域，你能否提供一些更新的看法，談談更廣泛的參與企圖心——不僅是新產品創新方面，也包括透過你們的配送體系分銷非百事公司酒精產品的潛在可能性？

Yes, Kevin. Listen, on M&A, I think we have sufficient brands, right, to play in that space. So I -- we're not thinking about any M&A in the energy space at this point.

是的，Kevin。聽著，關於併購（M&A），我認為我們在那個領域已經有足夠的品牌可以參與。所以我——我們目前並沒有在能源領域考慮任何併購。

Now with regards to alcohol, great question. And I think it's a very interesting development for the LRB category and for the alcohol category. So clearly, consumers are choosing to converge in a way. And so we see that space as strategically, very incremental. It's sizable and it's profitable. So obviously, we'd like to participate in a consistent and structural way for us.

至於酒精飲品，問得很好。我認為這對 LRB 類別以及酒精類別而言都是非常有意思的發展。很明顯，消費者在某種程度上正選擇走向融合。因此我們認為那個領域在策略上是非常具增量的：規模可觀且具獲利性。所以顯然，我們希望以一致且結構性的方式參與其中，並使其成為我們的一部分。

Obviously, we will play from the brand point of view on innovation, licensing our brands to beer manufacturers that can help us with the manufacturing. We don't have the technologies to make some of these products, but we're creating strong partnerships. You mentioned one. And I think we have brands that can extend into those spaces. So that will be one way how we do it.

顯然，從品牌角度來看，我們會透過創新來參與，並將我們的品牌授權給能協助我們製造的啤酒製造商。我們沒有製作其中一些產品的技術，但我們正在建立強而有力的合作夥伴關係。你提到其中一個。我認為我們的品牌可以延伸到那些領域。所以那會是我們採取的其中一種方式。

On the other hand, I think there is a very interesting play for us to leverage some of our distribution assets to provide capital distribution and consistent execution across the country. And we're working on that solution. We have obviously some market tests undergoing. And we'll continue to roll out those -- that potential distribution opportunity.

另一方面，我認為對我們而言，還有一個非常有意思的打法：運用我們部分的通路資產，提供資本化的鋪貨（distribution）以及在全國範圍內一致的執行。我們正在推進那個方案。顯然我們也在進行一些市場測試，並會持續推動那些——那個潛在的通路機會。

I think it could be an advantage for us if we do it well, and that's what we're planning to do. So we see us participating from the consumer point of view and also from the infrastructure and execution and granularity of execution point of view as well. Those 2 areas could create value for PepsiCo long term.

我認為如果我們把它做好，這可能會成為我們的優勢，而這正是我們的計畫。因此我們看到自己不僅從消費者角度參與，也會從基礎設施、執行力以及更細緻的落地執行角度參與。這兩個領域長期而言都可能為百事公司（PepsiCo）創造價值。

Our next question comes from Rob Ottenstein with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Rob Ottenstein。

We focused mostly on the U.S. today. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how you're viewing your global footprint. In the past, for instance, the company has made acquisitions to expand the offerings in Russia and South Africa. Any thoughts along those lines in other geographies? Any things that is going on, on the international side that we should be aware of in terms of strategic direction or changes of how you're looking at the business?

我們今天主要聚焦在美國。我想請你談談你們如何看待全球版圖。過去例如公司曾透過收購來擴展在俄羅斯與南非的產品供給。在其他地區是否也有類似的想法？在國際業務方面，是否有任何我們應該注意的策略方向，或你們看待業務方式的改變？

And then just a quick follow-up. On the hedging and the commodities, it would be -- I think it would be helpful if, to the extent you can, kind of talk about some of the key commodities and what percentage of your cost structure they represent.

然後再快速追問一下。關於避險與大宗商品——如果可以的話，我想會很有幫助：請談談一些關鍵大宗商品，以及它們各自占你們成本結構的百分比。

Great. Robert, I'll talk about international a bit and then Hugh can talk about the commodities. And you know we're quite limited on what we'd say about our detailed P&L. The -- on international, I've always said and continue to say that this is the -- by the largest growth opportunity we have in PepsiCo. I think we're -- we have a strong market positions in snacks and pretty good in beverages in many markets. Some others, a bit more challenging positions, but we're working to strengthen those.

很好。Robert，我先談一下國際業務，接著 Hugh 可以談大宗商品。你也知道，我們在談到損益表（P&L）細節時能說的相當有限。——就國際而言，我一直說、也會繼續說，這是百事公司最大的成長機會。我認為我們在許多市場的零食業務擁有強勢的市場地位，飲料在很多市場也相當不錯；在其他一些市場，位置會更具挑戰，但我們正努力強化。

I think we have the portfolio of brands and we have the portfolio of assets and the teams in place to continue to work on that opportunity. Last year, we grew double-digit internationally pretty much across the board, from Asia, to Middle East, Africa, Europe was very close to double-digit full year, if I recall. And then Latin America did double-digits. So pretty good performance. And if I look at the top 15 markets for the company, we are gaining share in most of those markets, which is, to me, the key indicator of progress in the system. Obviously, as we scale up those markets, profitability gets much better. And that's the model we're trying to play.

我認為我們擁有品牌組合、資產組合，以及到位的團隊，能持續把握這個機會。去年我們在國際市場幾乎全面達到雙位數成長，從亞洲到中東、非洲；如果我沒記錯，歐洲全年也非常接近雙位數；拉丁美洲則是雙位數。因此表現相當不錯。而如果我看公司前 15 大市場，我們在其中多數市場都在提升市占，對我而言，這是系統進展的關鍵指標。當然，隨著這些市場規模擴大，獲利能力會顯著改善，而這就是我們想要運作的模式。

For next year, we see good signs. Obviously, the geopolitics in some parts of the world are complex. We hope that, that will not materialize in anything that will impact our system. And we see inflation going up everywhere. We have the brands. And we have, again, the capabilities to price as what we're doing in majority of the market. We feel good about the elasticities, as we discussed earlier, both developing markets and emerging.

對明年而言，我們看到不錯的跡象。當然，世界某些地區的地緣政治相當複雜。我們希望這些情勢不會演變成影響我們系統的事件。我們也看到通膨在各地上升。我們有品牌，也再次具備定價能力——正如我們在多數市場所做的。我們對需求彈性（elasticities）的表現感到樂觀，正如先前討論的，無論是開發中市場或新興市場。

I'm a bit more cautious on emerging markets. I want to see a few more months to understand how the consumer is kind of absorbing all these high costs in multiple parts of their budget, household budgets. But we're feeling good about how consumers are staying loyal to our brands in spite of some of our pricing decisions. So yes, that should cover international. And maybe the -- yes.

對新興市場我會稍微更謹慎一些。我想再觀察幾個月，以了解消費者如何吸收其預算、家庭預算中多個面向的高成本。但儘管我們做出一些定價決策，我們仍對消費者持續忠誠於我們品牌的情況感到樂觀。所以，是的，國際部分大概就這些。然後也許——是的。

Yes. So in terms of commodities, just a couple of facts. Number one, the overall commodity basket is about $16 billion, $17 billion. It's a super broad basket. There's not a single commodity that even accounts for 10% of the overall spend, so a fairly diverse basket. But that said, clearly, commodities are inflationary pretty well across the board. And that's what we're dealing with, so...

是的。就大宗商品而言，提供幾個事實。第一，整體大宗商品籃子約為 160 億到 170 億美元。這是一個非常廣泛的籃子。沒有任何單一商品占整體支出的 10%，因此是相當多元的組合。但即便如此，很明顯，大宗商品幾乎全面呈現通膨壓力。這就是我們正在面對的情況，所以……

Our last question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

我們最後一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Chris Carey。

Just on that last line of questioning there on commodities. Did you expect pricing to offset commodities just in the context of your comments on full year margins? And then on North America, there was a comment in the prepared remarks just around expectations for PBNA margins to expand next year. I think the margin drivers of this business have obviously evolved with product mix and pricing and I wonder if you could just comment on how you see the drivers of that business go forward in the context of some evolution of the business.

延續剛才那條關於大宗商品的提問。就你們對全年毛利率的評論脈絡而言，你們是否預期定價能抵消大宗商品成本？另外，關於北美，在事先準備的講稿中提到明年 PBNA 利潤率預期將擴張。我認為這項業務的利潤率驅動因素，隨著產品組合與定價已明顯演變；我想請你評論一下，展望未來，在業務持續演進的背景下，你們如何看待該業務的驅動因素。

Sure. In terms of commodities and the way we approach it from a pricing perspective, obviously, we always try to do what we can in terms of productivity to manage an inflationary environment. But obviously, when inflation is this high, we need to take some pricing. In general, in developed markets, we do price through the commodity increases. In developing and emerging, we have the variable to consider of affordability and consumer reaction to it.

當然。就大宗商品以及我們從定價角度的應對方式而言，顯然我們一向會盡可能透過生產力提升來管理通膨環境。但當通膨如此之高時，我們就需要採取一定的定價。一般而言，在已開發市場，我們會透過定價把大宗商品上漲轉嫁出去。在開發中與新興市場，我們還需要考量可負擔性，以及消費者對此的反應這個變數。

And our history has been, we'll initially price through 2/3 to 3/4 and then go back and get the rest of it later. That said, overall, as I mentioned earlier in the call, I think the combination of our productivity and our pricing should put us in a position where we ought to be able to keep margins pretty well intact for the year. So that's kind of where I think we land on that.

我們過去的做法是：一開始先轉嫁 2/3 到 3/4，之後再回頭把剩下的補上。即便如此，整體而言，正如我在電話會議稍早提到的，我認為我們的生產力提升與定價的組合，應能讓我們在今年大致維持利潤率的完整性。所以這大概就是我們對此的結論。

In terms of PBNA, we do expect margins to continue to improve as we've talked about in the past. Drivers are generally the same ones that we've talked about. It's a combination of some pricing, some product mix as the energy category is more successful for us, some level of productivity as we get returns on the investments we've made in capacity and digitalization and the like. And we continue to use global business services as a mechanism to drive G&A productivity as well.

至於 PBNA，我們確實預期利潤率會如同過去所談的那樣持續改善。驅動因素大致與我們先前討論的一樣：部分來自定價，部分來自產品組合——隨著能量飲料品類對我們更成功；也有一定程度來自生產力提升，因為我們開始從先前在產能、數位化等方面的投資中取得回報。我們也持續透過全球商業服務（global business services）作為機制，推動一般與行政費用（G&A）的生產力提升。

So it's a broad bucket of actions that over the course of several years, we'll get PBNA margins closer and closer to the company average.

因此，這是一個涵蓋多項行動的廣泛組合；在數年的過程中，我們會讓 PBNA 的利潤率愈來愈接近公司平均水準。

Great. I think this is the last question. So I just would like to say thank you for everyone that joined us today and for the confidence you've placed in PepsiCo and in all of us with your investment. And we hope that you guys stay safe and healthy. So thank you very much.

很好。我想這是最後一個問題。所以我想對今天加入我們的各位說聲謝謝，也感謝你們以投資對百事公司以及我們所有人所展現的信心。我們也希望各位都能平安健康。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day. Speakers, please stand by.

各位女士、先生，今天的簡報到此結束。您現在可以斷線，祝您有美好的一天。講者請稍候待命。