百事 (PEP) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PepsiCo's 2022 First Quarter Earnings Question-and-Answer Session. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com.

早安，歡迎參加百事公司（PepsiCo）2022 年第一季財報問答環節。（接線員指示）今天的電話會議將被錄音，並將存檔於 www.pepsico.com。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Ravi Pamnani, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Pamnani, you may begin.

現在我很榮幸介紹投資人關係資深副總裁 Ravi Pamnani 先生。Pamnani 先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, operator. I hope everyone has had a chance this morning to review our press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website.

謝謝，接線員。希望大家今天早上都已經有機會查閱我們的新聞稿與事先準備的發言稿，兩者皆可在我們的網站上取得。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. We may make forward-looking statements on today's call, including about our business plans and 2022 guidance. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, April 26, 2022, and we are under no obligation to update.

在開始之前，請留意我們的警示性聲明。我們可能在今天的電話會議中作出前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們的業務計畫與 2022 年指引。前瞻性陳述本質上涉及風險與不確定性，且僅反映我們截至今日（2022 年 4 月 26 日）的觀點，我們沒有義務更新。

When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to our first quarter 2022 earnings release and first quarter 2022 Form 10-Q available on pepsico.com for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and additional information regarding our results, including a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from forward-looking statements.

在討論我們的業績時，我們會提及非 GAAP 指標，其會自已揭露的結果中排除某些項目。請參閱 pepsico.com 上的 2022 年第一季財報新聞稿與 2022 年第一季 Form 10-Q，以取得非 GAAP 指標的定義與調節表，以及關於我們業績的其他資訊，包括可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異之因素的討論。

Joining me today are PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, Ramon Laguarta; and PepsiCo's Vice Chairman and CFO, Hugh Johnston. (Operator Instructions)

今天與我一同出席的有百事公司董事長兼執行長 Ramon Laguarta，以及百事公司副董事長兼財務長 Hugh Johnston。（接線員指示）

And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

接下來，我將把時間交給接線員進行第一個提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Bryan Spillane。

I wanted to ask about margins. And I guess on the last earnings call, I think the expectation was that margins would be intact. And I guess now with today's guidance, it implies maybe a step back in margins. So maybe, Hugh, could you talk a little bit about maybe how that's changed, where we stand now in terms of like net inflation as we exit the first quarter? And then what are some of the actions that you're taking, maybe besides pricing, to try to protect margins?

我想問一下關於利潤率的問題。我想在上一次財報電話會議上，市場的預期是利潤率會維持不變。但依照今天的指引來看，似乎暗示利潤率可能會有所回落。所以 Hugh，能否談談這之間有哪些變化、我們在第一季結束時的淨通膨狀況如何？另外，除了定價之外，你們還採取了哪些行動來嘗試保護利潤率？

Yes, Bryan. A couple of things. One, inflation has clearly gotten a bit more challenging for the year. No question about that. We had previously indicated it was low teens. It's several points higher than that now. Number two, and we've always talked about this in the past, when we have inflation, the first thing we do is look internally to try to find opportunities to drive productivity. And we've been pretty good at driving productivity, but we're really stepping it up even a bit further this year, whether it's identifying areas of waste or whether it's looking for -- to leverage digital in a faster and more effective way or whether it's looking to leverage shared services more and more. We're obviously doing all of those things.

好的，Bryan。有幾點。第一，通膨對今年而言顯然變得更具挑戰性，這點毫無疑問。我們先前表示通膨會在十幾個百分點的低段，但現在已經比那個水準高出好幾個百分點。第二，我們過去也一直談到，當出現通膨時，我們首先會向內部尋找機會以提升生產力。我們在推動生產力方面做得相當不錯，但今年我們會再進一步加碼，不論是找出浪費的環節，或是更快、更有效地運用數位化，或是更進一步槓桿共享服務。我們顯然都在做這些事。

After that, then we obviously look for revenue management opportunities, whether it's the way that we're merchandising product in-store or packaging mix or shallowing our promotions. And then obviously, price ultimately becomes a factor as well. So in terms of the overall impact, I mentioned that I thought margins would be pretty level on the last call. I think, by and large, that's going to be about the same as we go forward. So clearly, we'll decide what we need to do in the balance of the year in terms of further revenue management actions. Typically, we do that in Q4. But by and large, I think the margins will be relatively level year-over-year.

在那之後，我們當然會尋找收益管理（revenue management）的機會，不論是我們在店內如何陳列商品、包裝組合（packaging mix），或是降低促銷強度。接著，價格最終也會成為一個因素。就整體影響而言，我在上次電話會議提到我認為利潤率會大致持平。我認為往後大致也會是同樣的情況。因此，我們會在今年剩餘期間決定在進一步收益管理行動方面需要做什麼。通常我們會在第四季做這件事。但總體而言，我認為利潤率將會相對於去年大致持平。

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Dara Mohsenian。

So on that topic, maybe we can touch specifically a bit more on pricing. Obviously, very strong delivery in the quarter. Can you talk about consumer demand elasticity so far and what you're seeing? But more importantly, with the cost pressures we're seeing out there, can you talk about strategically how you think about pricing going forward? Is there room to take additional increases, if needed? And how you think about that in light of potential consumer sensitivity with inflation being at unprecedented type of levels?

延續這個主題，也許我們可以更具體談談定價。第一季表現顯然非常強勁。你們能否談談目前為止消費者需求的價格彈性，以及你們觀察到的情況？但更重要的是，面對目前的成本壓力，你們在策略上如何思考未來的定價？如果有需要，是否還有空間再進一步調漲？以及在通膨處於前所未見水準、消費者可能更敏感的情況下，你們如何看待這件事？

Dara, let me take a go, and then maybe Hugh can add some comments. Clearly, obviously, if you look at Q4 and Q1, the elasticities that we're having in the business are better than historical and better than what we had planned. So that's why we're raising our guidance for the year. This is valid both for developed markets and for developing markets. We were very concerned about developing markets that we're seeing -- if you see the numbers in LatAm, in Africa, Middle East and APAC, we're seeing good elasticities there as well, so positive.

Dara，我先回答，之後也許 Hugh 可以補充。很明顯地，如果你看第四季與第一季，我們業務的價格彈性表現優於歷史水準，也優於我們原先的規劃。因此我們才會上調全年指引。這在已開發市場與開發中市場都成立。我們原本非常擔心開發中市場，但如果你看拉丁美洲、非洲、中東與亞太的數據，我們在那裡也看到良好的價格彈性，因此是正面的。

However, we think the consumer is very early in this process of adjusting to the new inflationary environment. I think there's going to be more consumer new behaviors adapting to the new realities. There are going to be channel mixes changes. There's going to be probably packaging mixes changes and some of the decisions consumers will stop doing certain things that we're doing, going out more, maybe traveling and so on. So we think we're early in the process. I think our categories do normally quite well in inflationary. And what makes us feel confident is that the -- in the last few years, we've invested a lot in the brands. And we've invested a lot in some new capabilities around revenue management, also understanding better opportunities for waste reduction in the company. And we've improved a lot of our execution capabilities in the store with more information and better executional tools.

不過，我們認為消費者在適應新的通膨環境方面仍處於非常早期的階段。我認為消費者會出現更多新的行為來適應新的現實。通路組合會改變，包裝組合也可能改變；而且消費者會做出一些決定，停止做某些事情，例如更常外出、可能旅行等等。因此我們認為仍在早期階段。我們的品類通常在通膨環境下表現相當不錯。而讓我們有信心的是，在過去幾年，我們在品牌上投入很多；也在收益管理的新能力上投入很多，同時更好地理解公司內部減少浪費的機會。我們也透過更多資訊與更好的執行工具，大幅提升了門市端的執行能力。

So I think we feel that we're early in the process. At the same time, we feel rather confident that we can manage through this with a good balance between revenue management, holistic cost management. And our #1 objective is to keep the consumers with our brands. And obviously, if we can get new consumers to our brands, even better, during this process. So that's how we're approaching this in the short term.

所以我認為我們仍在早期階段。同時，我們也相當有信心能以收益管理與整體成本管理之間的良好平衡來度過這段期間。我們的第一要務是讓消費者持續選擇我們的品牌；當然，如果在這個過程中還能為我們的品牌帶來新消費者，那就更好。因此，短期內我們就是以這樣的方式來應對。

And then you were asking about long term. We -- these are the goals that we're setting for our teams. We have -- I've always said that we have very experienced leaders in the market. And this is clearly a battle that you fight market by market. And that gives us, again, I think, a better position to win versus other companies that are facing the same kind of inflation.

至於你問到的長期面向，我們為團隊設定的目標是——我一直說，我們在各市場都有非常有經驗的領導者。而這顯然是一場必須逐一市場去打的戰役。這也再次讓我們處於我認為相對更有利的位置，能夠比其他同樣面臨這類通膨的公司更有勝算。

Yes. The only thing I'd add to that, Dara, is if you look over time, our categories have always performed pretty well during inflationary times. And as a result of that, I think as a company, our performance has been pretty inflation-resistant as well as recession-resistant, which obviously makes us a pretty good defensive stock.

是的。Dara，我唯一想補充的是，從長期來看，我們的品類在通膨時期一向表現相當不錯。也因此，我認為就公司而言，我們的表現也相當具備抗通膨性與抗衰退性，這顯然使我們成為一檔相當不錯的防禦型股票。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊（Barclays）的 Lauren Lieberman。

Was curious if you could talk a little bit about impacts from Russia-Ukraine that are embedded in the outlook. Of course, saw the impairment charges on brands that you talked about before the conflict began and then also the charges on PP&E and so on. But I was curious about how Russia-Ukraine is impacting the revenue outlook and also the EPS outlook for the year in terms of operational elements.

我想了解你們能否談談在展望中已納入的俄烏（Russia-Ukraine）影響。當然，我們看到你們在衝突開始前就提到的品牌減損費用，以及對不動產、廠房及設備（PP&E）等的費用。但我想問的是，就營運層面而言，俄烏局勢如何影響今年的營收展望，以及今年的 EPS 展望？

Yes, Lauren. Russia, as I think we've shared in the past, is low single digits in terms of its overall size to us. Obviously, it's a bit of a drag in terms of our overall outlook. But elsewhere in the company, we're doing quite well. So I think we have a pretty conservative Russia outlook embedded in our guidance, which, I think, will put us in good stead for most of the outcomes that could occur as we go forward.

是的，Lauren。俄羅斯，如同我想我們過去分享過的，就其對我們整體規模而言，約為低個位數百分比。顯然，這在我們整體展望上會帶來一些拖累。但在公司其他地區，我們表現相當不錯。因此，我認為我們在指引中已納入相當保守的俄羅斯展望，而我認為，這將使我們在未來可能出現的大多數情境下都能處於有利位置。

Yes. And then with regards to Ukraine, obviously, we had to stop our operations there -- our manufacturing operations. We're still doing some sales. That's also impacting. It's also embedded in the -- in our guidance for the year where we reopened now our factory in Kyiv. Hopefully, we'll try to get back to operations in Ukraine as a safety situation allows us, but that's also embedded into our guidance.

是的。至於烏克蘭，顯然，我們不得不停止那裡的營運——我們的製造營運。我們仍在進行一些銷售，這也在造成影響。這也已納入——納入我們今年的指引之中；目前我們已重新開放基輔的工廠。希望在安全情勢允許的情況下，我們會努力恢復在烏克蘭的營運，但這也已反映在我們的指引中。

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Bonnie Herzog。

I just wanted to get a quick clarification on your top line guide based on your comments. So are you now expecting a greater impact from volume growth this year? As you mentioned, you're maybe feeling better about elasticities going forward. And then I'd be curious to hear specifically how your immediate consumption business is performing in key regions for both your beverage and snack business. I'm asking in light of rising fuel prices. For instance, curious to hear if you guys are seeing any signs of pressure in this channel despite broad reopening in so many markets. And then looking forward, what strategy do you have in place to mitigate some of these pressures if they continue to intensify?

我只是想根據你們的評論，對你們的營收（top line）指引做個快速釐清。所以你們現在是否預期今年的銷量成長會帶來更大的影響？如你們提到的，你們可能對未來的需求彈性（elasticities）感覺更好一些。接著我也想特別了解，你們的即時消費（immediate consumption）業務在關鍵地區的表現如何，包含飲料與零食業務。我之所以這麼問，是因為燃油價格上升。舉例來說，我想了解在許多市場廣泛重啟的情況下，你們是否在這個通路看到任何壓力跡象。再往前看，如果這些壓力持續加劇，你們有哪些策略來緩解？

Sure. So Bonnie, why don't I start? Number one, obviously, the revenue guidance is up. That's a combination of a bit more volume and a bit more price, so balanced between the 2 in terms of the change from prior. And previously, we had indicated we don't expect much volume growth. So I think, obviously, that takes us to we expect a little bit of volume growth as the year progresses.

當然。Bonnie，我先開始。第一，顯然，我們的營收指引上調了。這是銷量多一些加上價格多一些的組合，因此相較先前的變動，在這兩者之間是較為均衡的。先前我們曾表示不預期會有太多銷量成長。所以我認為，顯然這意味著，隨著年度推進，我們預期會有一些銷量成長。

In terms of immediate consumption channels, relatively small impact thus far. Obviously, we'll see how it plays out. Historically, it has impacted the beverage business a bit more than it's impacted the snack food business. I think that's because beverage incidence is just higher than snack food incidence. But so far, relatively muted impact on that, and the other channels are doing quite well. Take-home is still up big gross and foodservices growing at a nice healthy clip at this point.

就即時消費通路而言，到目前為止影響相對不大。當然，我們會觀察後續發展。歷史上，它對飲料業務的影響通常比對零食業務的影響更大。我認為這是因為飲料的消費發生率（incidence）就是高於零食。但到目前為止，影響相對溫和，而其他通路表現相當不錯。居家帶回（take-home）仍維持強勁成長，而餐飲服務（foodservices）目前也以良好且健康的速度成長。

Yes. If you think about immediate consumption, the away-from-home channel is growing very fast across the world. And also, in the U.S., it's recovering. So that is a positive to immediate consumption. There's a little bit of traffic decline in convenience stores but not meaningful at this point. And obviously, there, the strategy will be to gain space and gain share in that channel to compensate for whatever traffic dilution might be, also trying to be conscious of price points and entry points to the category in those channels. Internationally, we're not seeing mobility being impacted. And we're seeing immediate consumption very strong internationally as well. As I was saying earlier, we're seeing elasticity quite positive in emerging markets. So overall, I don't think that this is going to impact us in the coming period.

是的。如果你看即時消費，全球的外出消費（away-from-home）通路成長非常快。而在美國，也正在復甦。因此，這對即時消費是正面的。便利商店的來客數（traffic）有些微下滑，但目前並不顯著。顯然，在那裡的策略會是擴大陳列空間並提升該通路的市占，以彌補可能出現的來客稀釋，同時也會注意那些通路中的價格帶與品類入門價位（entry points）。在國際市場，我們沒有看到移動性（mobility）受到影響。我們也看到國際市場的即時消費同樣非常強勁。如我先前所說，我們看到新興市場的彈性表現相當正面。因此整體而言，我不認為這會在接下來一段期間對我們造成影響。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Andrea Teixeira。

I was just trying to check something in between the lines marketing, and I know you had SG&A was up last year, or actually, you're lapping $180 million in equity investment gain from the same period last 2 years. But just thinking, as you're mentioning, elasticities come in better. Obviously, that may change. But what are you embedding through the end of the year in terms of marketing from a dollar and rate perspective? And then for the places where you count on bottlers, was there any impact of stocking this quarter or ahead of price increases?

我只是想從行銷的字裡行間確認一些事情。我知道你們去年的 SG&A 是上升的，或者說，你們其實是在對比前兩年同一期間的 1.8 億美元權益投資收益（equity investment gain）。但我在想，既然你們提到彈性表現更好，當然這可能會改變，那麼你們在今年年底前，在行銷方面（以金額與比率角度）納入了什麼假設？另外，在你們依賴裝瓶商（bottlers）的地區，本季是否有因備貨（stocking）或在漲價前提前出貨而造成任何影響？

Yes, Andrea. [Aiming] and hoping we're up roughly in line with revenue for the year. So that's where that will likely land. Yes.

是的，Andrea。[目標]並希望我們全年大致與營收成長同步上升。所以大概會落在那個水準。是的。

Yes. And then your question, Andrea, on the bottlers, no, there is -- there hasn't been any loading of bottlers for price increase. We don't follow these practices, neither with our retail partners. So whatever you see as sales is basically sell-in and sellout that we've had for the business.

是的。至於你關於裝瓶商的問題，Andrea，沒有——並沒有因漲價而對裝瓶商進行任何提前灌貨（loading）。我們不採行這類做法，對零售合作夥伴也是如此。所以你看到的銷售基本上就是我們業務的進貨（sell-in）與售出（sellout）表現。

Our next question comes from Laurent Grandet with Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自 Guggenheim 的 Laurent Grandet。

Ramon and Hugh, question on PBNA margin. I mean been progressing about 100 basis points in the quarter, almost back to the level of pre-COVID for the first quarter despite higher inflation. Could you please help share the impact of the high-cost inflation for PBNA specifically in the quarter? And also, could you give us maybe more color as to where the gains are coming from maybe dissecting between Tropicana divestiture, product mix? And where do we go from here?

Ramon 和 Hugh，關於 PBNA 利潤率的問題。我的意思是，本季利潤率提升了大約 100 個基點，儘管通膨更高，但第一季幾乎回到 COVID 之前的水準。你們能否協助分享本季 PBNA 特別受到高成本通膨的影響有多大？另外，你們是否能提供更多細節，說明改善的來源，例如拆解一下 Tropicana 出售（divestiture）、產品組合（product mix）等因素？以及接下來會如何發展？

Yes. Thanks, Laurent. A couple of things, obviously, on that front. Number one, we continue to make progress in terms of cost management inside the business. And I've laid out for you all in the past sort of our pathway to mid-teens margins for the PBNA business. That thesis is still very much intact, and that's the plan we're executing against.

是的，謝謝你，Laurent。在這方面有幾點。第一，我們持續在業務內部的成本管理上取得進展。我過去也向各位說明過我們讓 PBNA 業務利潤率走向「十幾個百分點中段」（mid-teens）的路徑。這個論點仍然非常完整，而這就是我們正在執行的計畫。

Obviously, inflation has put a bit more pressure on that. But the combination of the additional cost management actions that we've taken as well as, obviously, shallowing our promotions, and price increases and revenue management have allowed us to continue on that journey.

顯然，通膨對此帶來了更多壓力。但我們所採取的額外成本管理行動，加上顯然我們降低促銷力度（shallowing our promotions）、漲價以及收益管理（revenue management），使我們得以持續走在這條旅程上。

We still very much expect to do exactly what we've said in the past, which is we'll progress along towards getting that business back to the margin levels that I mentioned earlier, something in the mid-teens over the course of the next several years. So I think we're making good progress, and it's going as we expected. Inflation, obviously, is higher than we expected, but we're taking actions to manage that.

我們仍然非常預期會完全照我們過去所說的去做，也就是在未來幾年逐步推進，讓該業務回到我先前提到的利潤率水準，也就是十幾個百分點中段。我認為我們進展良好，且進度符合我們的預期。通膨顯然高於我們的預期，但我們正在採取行動來管理它。

Yes. The key levers, Laurent, of that margin improvement stay intact, right? If you think about the portfolio, pivots that we're trying to do, those are really good work in progress. If you see the Gatorade performance, that's a high-margin business for us, clearly growing, again, at very fast pace. We're making good progress in energy. So that part of the transformation is good.

是的。Laurent，利潤率改善的關鍵槓桿仍然完好，對吧？如果你看我們正在推動的產品組合轉向（portfolio pivots），那些確實是進展中的良好工作。若你看 Gatorade 的表現，那對我們而言顯然是高利潤率業務，而且再次以非常快的速度成長。我們在能量飲料（energy）方面也取得良好進展。所以這部分的轉型是好的。

We're also making good progress on efficiency and operating excellence. So there's -- the critical levers of that transformation continue intact. Clearly, inflation is a factor. But as Hugh was saying, we're doubling down on productivity and trying to sharpen the pencil a bit more on revenue management as well.

我們在效率與營運卓越（operating excellence）方面也取得良好進展。因此——這項轉型的關鍵槓桿持續完好。通膨顯然是一個因素。但如 Hugh 所說，我們正在加倍投入生產力提升（productivity），並且也嘗試在收益管理上把筆再削得更尖一些（sharpen the pencil）。

Our next question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

I was hoping to dive into your European EBIT margins. While I recognize that 1Q is a seasonally low quarter, Hugh, I was wondering if you could offer any incremental color on the margin compression that you saw in that segment this quarter.

我希望深入了解你們歐洲的 EBIT 利潤率。雖然我理解第一季是季節性較低的季度，Hugh，但我想知道你是否能就本季該部門所看到的利潤率壓縮（margin compression）提供任何額外的說明。

Sure, happy to. A couple of things. Number one, and you hit on the key point. It's a very small quarter for Europe. It's a very short quarter, and it's seasonally low in terms of the revenue as well. In terms of some of the factors in there, obviously, Eastern Europe sort of plays something of a role in terms of that number.

當然，樂意說明。有幾點。第一點，而且你切中要害。歐洲這一季的季度規模非常小。這是一個非常短的季度，而且就營收而言也屬於季節性偏低。就其中一些因素來看，顯然東歐在這個數字上也多少扮演了一些角色。

Second one, we made a U.K. pension contribution, I think, of about $25 million. That's a relatively small number in the overall year. But in a 2-month quarter, it obviously has a disproportionate impact.

第二點，我們在英國做了一筆退休金提撥，我想大約是2,500萬美元。就全年整體來看這是相對小的數字。但在一個只有2個月的季度裡，它顯然會產生不成比例的影響。

And then in addition to that, the SodaStream business was a little bit soft. That was a bit of a factor. And recall, we report SodaStream through Europe because that's the biggest market for the SodaStream business.

此外，SodaStream 業務表現有點疲弱。這也是一個因素。並且請記得，我們是透過歐洲來報告 SodaStream，因為歐洲是 SodaStream 業務最大的市場。

Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

If I could dig into the guidance increase a little bit, better volume and price this quarter, of course. Are your expectations of volume price dynamic as we go through the rest of the year? Or is it you just kind of push just including the volume upside for this quarter as part of your full year?

如果我可以再深入問一下上調指引的部分，本季的銷量與價格當然都更好。那麼你們對於今年剩餘期間的「量價動態」預期如何？還是說，你們只是把本季銷量超預期的部分納入全年之中？

Kaumil, there was a lot of echo there. And if I understand, your question was around our volume pricing guidance. We've raised the guidance on top line because we've seen better elasticities in the first part of the year. We -- our assumptions for the balance of the year are a bit more conservative on elasticities because, as I said earlier, within the context for the consumer might change, might not change. We're going to obviously try to do our best with our commercial plans and our people on the ground, with execution and better insights to minimize elasticities. Obviously, that's our role here.

Kaumil，剛剛回音有點大。如果我理解正確，你的問題是關於我們對銷量與定價的指引。我們上調營收端（top line）指引，是因為今年前段我們看到更好的需求彈性。我們——對於今年剩餘期間的假設，在彈性方面會稍微保守一些，因為如我先前所說，消費者所處的環境可能會改變，也可能不會改變。我們當然會盡最大努力，透過我們的商業計畫與在地團隊的執行，以及更好的洞察，來把彈性影響降到最低。顯然，這就是我們在這裡的角色。

But our assumptions going forward are a little bit more conservative because we think that the consumer will be feeling the overall inflation in their disposable income, and that might have an impact on the elasticities of our categories as well, although we think that our categories are -- normally fare quite well in inflationary and recessionary moments. And that's why we feel optimistic about raising the guidance to 8% on top of a very high, fast growth 9.5% last year. So clearly, we're growing very fast as a company.

但我們對未來的假設會稍微保守一些，因為我們認為消費者會在可支配所得上感受到整體通膨，這也可能影響我們品類的需求彈性；不過我們也認為，我們的品類——通常在通膨與衰退時期表現都相當不錯。這也是為什麼我們有信心把指引上調到8%，而且是在去年9.5%這個非常高、非常快速成長的基礎之上。所以很明顯，我們公司成長非常快。

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Great. I had a question on pricing as well, but from a different angle, really from a retailer's perspective. So the context, of course, your portfolio is in very large, essential and high-velocity categories that drive foot traffic for retailers. But looking at results in the syndicated data, your price/mix is up anywhere from low double digits to mid-teens in your larger categories. I know that's not all frontline pricing. Some of it's mix, but nevertheless, certainly not inconsequential for the consumer to cope with.

很好。我也有一個關於定價的問題，但角度不同，主要是從零售商的觀點來看。背景是，你們的產品組合位於非常大型、必需且高周轉的品類，能為零售商帶來客流。但從通路彙總數據（syndicated data）的結果來看，你們在較大品類的價格/組合（price/mix）上升幅度從低雙位數到十幾個百分點不等。我知道這不全是第一線的漲價，有一部分是組合因素，但無論如何，對消費者而言要消化這些變化肯定不是無關緊要。

So my question is, have the pricing discussions started to become more difficult with retailers, particularly your large customers to a point where maybe we're closer to a tipping point where it's going to be more difficult to put the pricing through? Or is the pricing window still very much open in your view? So your thoughts there would be helpful.

所以我的問題是：與零售商的定價討論是否開始變得更困難，特別是對你們的大型客戶而言，是否已接近某個臨界點，使得把漲價落地會更困難？還是以你們的看法，定價的窗口仍然非常開放？你們的想法會很有幫助。

Yes. Listen, we're always make full commercial plan discussions with our customers, and we try to create value for both. And those joint business planning are the essence of our growth strategy. So we do that in full coordination with our partners, trying to make sure that we keep the consumer with us, we keep the shopper coming to the store, and it's a win-win proposition. So we'll do it. We've been doing it the same this year, of course, even with more intensity than in the past and more insights and more value discussions. And we plan to continue to do that as we go into the second half of the year and into the coming years.

是的。聽著，我們一向都會與客戶進行完整的商業計畫討論，並努力為雙方創造價值。而這些聯合商業規劃（joint business planning）正是我們成長策略的核心。因此我們會與合作夥伴充分協調來做這件事，確保消費者願意跟著我們、購物者持續到店，形成雙贏的命題。我們會這麼做。今年我們也一直以同樣方式在做，當然比過去更有強度，帶來更多洞察與更多價值層面的討論。我們也計畫在今年下半年以及未來幾年持續這麼做。

Obviously, we're all concerned about elasticities and consumer reaction. So it is to our both interest to take this into consideration as we build the commercial plan. There are some geographies in the world where these discussions are a bit more tactical. I would say some of the European markets, there is a bit more friction when it comes to pricing. And actually, some of our net revenue in Q1 reflects some of these conversations and difficult realities. I would say, in the majority of the markets, these are done in collaboration with our customers and a very good value-creation, win-win discussions.

顯然，我們都很關注需求彈性與消費者反應。因此在制定商業計畫時把這些納入考量，符合我們雙方的利益。全球有些地區，這些討論會更偏戰術性。我會說在一些歐洲市場，談到定價時摩擦會更大。事實上，我們第一季的部分淨營收也反映了其中一些對話與艱難的現實。我會說，在大多數市場，這些都是與客戶協作完成的，並且是非常良好的價值創造、雙贏式討論。

Our next question comes from Bob Ottenstein with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Bob Ottenstein。

Great. I was wondering if you could please remind us what your exposure is to China, what you're seeing there now and your long-term plans.

很好。我想請你們提醒一下，你們對中國的曝險有多大、目前在那裡看到什麼情況，以及你們的長期計畫。

Sure. Robert, it's Hugh. Low single digits on revenue and very low single digits on (inaudible) is the number. In terms of our plans, I think we continue to execute in the marketplace. We -- on the snack business, we have a bottler in China who we've had a very successful relationship with. And obviously, in what's a challenging environment, we'll continue to do what we can to continue to operate well. So -- but low single digits and very low singles on the number.

當然。Robert，我是 Hugh。營收占比是低個位數，（聽不清）占比也是非常低個位數，就是這個數字。至於我們的計畫，我想我們會持續在市場上執行。我們——在零食業務方面，我們在中國有一家裝瓶合作夥伴，彼此合作非常成功。顯然，在一個具挑戰的環境下，我們會持續盡我們所能，維持良好營運。所以——但就是營收低個位數、以及（另一項指標）非常低個位數。

Yes. I would say, obviously, we're seeing the impact of the lockdowns in Shanghai and some other cities impacting somehow the consumer behavior. In general, I would say the in-home consumption is going up. There's been some stocking of our food business in the last few weeks. A little bit of lower mobility in the away-from-home channel, which impacted mostly the beverage business. Overall, this is performing as planned. And obviously, we're doing business contingency planning to make sure that we're ready in case some of the lockdowns impact our operating plans. But in general, I would say, the team is responding very well. And so far, we haven't seen an impact in our business, which, as Hugh said, is relatively small compared to the full size of the company.

是的。我會說，顯然我們看到上海以及其他一些城市封控所帶來的影響，在某種程度上影響了消費者行為。整體而言，我會說居家消費正在上升。過去幾週，我們的食品業務出現一些囤貨行為。外出通路（away-from-home channel）的流動性略有下降，主要影響了飲料業務。整體來看，表現符合計畫。當然，我們也在做營運應變規劃（business contingency planning），以確保若部分封控影響我們的營運計畫，我們已做好準備。但整體而言，我會說團隊反應非常好。到目前為止，我們尚未看到對業務的影響；如 Hugh 所說，與公司整體規模相比，中國業務相對較小。

And just to build on Ramon's point, I should have mentioned as well, our guide doesn't include a level of conservatism and an expectation that performance will be somewhat challenged based on the situation there.

另外補充 Ramon 的觀點，我也應該提到，我們的指引並未納入一個保守程度，或預期基於當地情勢使表現會受到一定挑戰。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Steve Powers。

Ramon and Hugh, just a quick follow-up for me, actually, going back to Laurent's question on Russia-Ukraine. Hugh, you mentioned the contribution there at low single digits, which I think is a profit perspective. On revenue, I thought it was more like mid-single digits, I think, around 4.5% last year. So I guess in that context, just can you talk about how Russia-Ukraine factors into that 8% organic outlook because intuition would say that the business reductions there create a drag on organic growth that you're absorbing in that 8%? But then again, there's just likely so much nominal inflation in those markets. I'm not exactly sure how or whether Russia-Ukraine net out as a positive or a negative driver of organic growth as you calculated into what magnitude. So just some clarity there would be helpful.

Ramon 和 Hugh，我這邊有個很快的追問，回到 Laurent 關於俄烏的問題。Hugh，你提到那邊的貢獻是低個位數，我理解那是從獲利角度來看。就營收而言，我原本以為更像是中個位數，我記得去年大約是4.5%。所以在這個背景下，你們能否談談俄烏如何納入你們8%的有機成長展望？直覺上，那邊業務縮減會對有機成長造成拖累，而你們把這個拖累吸收在8%裡。但另一方面，那些市場名目通膨可能很高。我不太確定你們在計算時，俄烏淨額到底是有機成長的正向或負向驅動因素，以及其幅度有多大。若能提供一些釐清會很有幫助。

Sure, happy to. Your thoughts are right. Last year, Russia was about 4%. Obviously, with the current environment, we expect it to be less than that. That's my low single-digit comment. And yes, we -- it's incorporated into our guidance. We don't expect the business to deliver a lot of growth this year given all of the challenges and the decisions we've made. And it is, in fact, incorporated so that we capture that as a part of the 8%. So again, we're not getting into a ridiculous level of detail. Clearly, the business is going to be lower than it was in 2021 by a meaningful amount.

當然，很樂意。你的想法是對的。去年，俄羅斯大約是 4%。顯然，在目前的環境下，我們預期會低於這個水準。這就是我所說的低個位數。是的，我們——這已納入我們的指引之中。鑑於所有挑戰以及我們所做的決策，我們不預期今年這項業務會帶來很多成長。而且事實上，這已被納入，以便我們把它作為 8% 的一部分來反映。所以再次強調，我們不會進入不合理的細節層級。很明顯，這項業務將會比 2021 年顯著降低。

Our next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

This is Filippo Falorni on for Nick. A question on your beverage alcohol strategy. Maybe if you can comment on how the HARD MTN DEW launch is performing in the States, where you've launched a product. And then more longer term and bigger picture, like give us an update on kind of your expectations for the beverage alcohol category and any potential new launches or initiatives there?

我是 Filippo Falorni，代替 Nick 提問。關於你們的酒精飲料策略有個問題。也許你們可以評論一下 HARD MTN DEW 在美國的上市表現（你們已在那裡推出產品）。然後從更長期、更宏觀的角度，請更新一下你們對酒精飲料品類的預期，以及是否有任何潛在的新上市或相關計畫/倡議？

Yes. This is Ramon. Yes, listen, I think we're testing and learning at a fast speed, right, both Boston Beer Company is learning how to market and improve the products in their responsibility in the partnership. And we're also learning about how to distribute and sell low-alcohol beverages, which obviously have a lot of restrictions at the state and even municipality level. We're having to train our people in the right way and so on. So there's a lot of test and learning, very encouraging learnings actually as we see in the consumers.

是的。我是 Ramon。是的，聽著，我認為我們正在以很快的速度測試並學習，對吧？Boston Beer Company 也在學習如何在合作夥伴關係中負責其部分的行銷並改良產品。我們也在學習如何分銷與銷售低酒精飲料，而這類產品在州層級甚至市政層級都有很多限制。我們必須以正確方式訓練我們的人員等等。所以有很多測試與學習；實際上，從我們在消費者端看到的情況來看，這些學習非常令人鼓舞。

Obviously, Mountain Dew is a big brand, and it's generating a lot of excitement. There's a lot of initial trial. As always, in these circumstances, we have to wait and see repeats and see really where the business stabilizes. But I would say, good learnings for the organization. It's still very early in the process of building the infrastructure and the talent base and pretty good response from the consumer. Yes, we're going to continue to try to create new exciting products that will go through this platform in the future. And as we learn more about the consumer, together with our partners, we'll be able to, I think, innovate meaningfully in this category. But as I said, too early, too early yet to call it a huge success.

顯然，Mountain Dew 是一個大品牌，並且正在引發很大的興奮度。一開始有很多試用。像往常一樣，在這種情況下，我們必須等待並觀察回購情況，看看業務最終會穩定在什麼水準。但我會說，對組織而言是很好的學習。就建立基礎設施與人才庫而言，仍然非常早期，而消費者的反應相當不錯。是的，我們未來會持續嘗試創造新的、令人興奮的產品，並透過這個平台推出。隨著我們與合作夥伴一起更了解消費者，我認為我們將能在這個品類中進行有意義的創新。但如我所說，還太早，還太早就稱之為巨大成功。

Our next question comes from Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge Research 的 Brett Cooper。

I was just hoping you could update us on where you are on digitizing your relationship with customers and consumers, aspirations on both levels? And then I guess if I can nest underneath the consumer, if there's any challenges you guys have in going direct, given the independent bottling contracts?

我只是希望你們能更新一下：在將你們與客戶及消費者的關係數位化方面，目前進展到哪裡？在這兩個層面上的願景/目標是什麼？然後我想在消費者這一塊再追問一下：考量到獨立裝瓶商合約，你們在走向直面消費者（direct）時是否面臨任何挑戰？

Yes. It's a -- Brett, it's a journey that we started very quite some years ago, both on the consumer and the customer. I would say different levels of progress in different parts of the world. Probably, U.S. and Western Europe, more advanced when it comes to consumer interaction. The way we can kind of target our messaging in a much more granular way, and we make good progress how we're doing that, how we're making our media much more efficient by targeting better, so that's an important progress. The same with retailers, where obviously, we have platforms that are fully digitalized and allow our retailers to buy from us directly. And we're -- sufficiently smaller customers, fragmented trade around the world, that's a platform that we're benefiting both for better service and also some productivity, being able to target the retailer better.

是的。Brett，這是一段——我們在相當多年前就開始的旅程，涵蓋消費者與客戶兩端。我會說，世界不同地區的進展程度不同。就消費者互動而言，美國與西歐可能更為先進。我們能以更細緻的方式鎖定訊息傳遞，我們在如何做到這點、如何透過更好的鎖定來提升媒體效率方面取得了良好進展，這是一項重要進展。零售商端也是如此；很明顯，我們有完全數位化的平台，讓零售商可以直接向我們採購。而對於全球各地規模較小、較為分散的客戶/通路而言，這個平台讓我們受益：一方面提供更好的服務，另一方面也帶來一些生產力提升，並能更好地鎖定零售商。

So progress, good progress across. It's strategically a very important part of our journey, trying to both generate additional growth through personalization, through targeting the consumer. And that's a journey through innovation, through new digital tools, through better learning of our -- training of our people, our marketeers, our leaders in the marketplace. So it's a journey. I would say in emerging markets, we're a bit behind. But it's an investment that we're putting in place, part of our large investment in digitalization that we've been talking about for already a few years.

所以整體而言有進展，而且是良好的進展。從策略上看，這是我們旅程中非常重要的一部分：我們試圖透過個人化、透過鎖定消費者來帶動額外成長。這是一段旅程，包含創新、導入新的數位工具、以及更好的學習——也就是對我們人員、行銷人員、以及市場端領導者的培訓。所以這是一段旅程。我會說在新興市場我們稍微落後一些。但這是我們正在投入的投資，也是我們過去幾年一直在談的大型數位化投資的一部分。

Our last question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們最後一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Chris Carey。

So just 2 connected questions on cost and productivity, if I could. So you noted the prior outlook was for commodities to be low teens. I believe that's impacted COGS, and the company is now tracking higher by a couple of points. I guess that would imply things get worse from here. Can you just maybe help us with perspective on the ability you have in commodity expectations? I understand your locked specifically for the next few quarters. But spot exposure increases in Q4, and how you're thinking about incremental pricing in Q4?

如果可以的話，我有兩個彼此相關、關於成本與生產力的問題。你們提到先前的展望是大宗商品成本在低十幾個百分點。我相信這影響了銷貨成本（COGS），而公司目前的追蹤值高了幾個百分點。我想這意味著從現在開始情況會更糟。你們能否幫我們提供一些觀點：你們在大宗商品預期方面有多大的掌握度？我理解你們在接下來幾個季度有鎖定（hedge/鎖價）得比較明確。但第四季的現貨曝險會增加，你們如何思考第四季的額外定價（incremental pricing）？

And then just connected, Ramon, I think you noted a couple of times on the call that you're doubling down on productivity. Would you expect to be in a position to exceed the $1 billion in productivity savings target for the year? Or is this just more conceptual?

然後再接著問，Ramon，我想你在電話會議中提到幾次你們正在加碼生產力。你們是否預期今年有機會超過 10 億美元的生產力節省目標？還是這只是比較概念性的說法？

Yes, Chris. Yes, your math is right. We said low teens before, and it's -- it will be several points higher than that. In terms of what that means for Q4, when we typically see pricing in the business, we're still in the process of figuring out how much that will be. That's sort of our normal pricing window in the U.S., in particular. Obviously, other markets have different windows. So we'll see what that looks like when we get a little bit closer to the time.

是的，Chris。是的，你的計算是對的。我們之前說的是低十幾個百分點，而現在——會比那高出幾個百分點。至於這對第四季意味著什麼（我們通常會在第四季看到業務端的定價），我們仍在評估會是多少。這大致是我們在美國的正常定價窗口，尤其如此。當然，其他市場有不同的窗口。所以等我們更接近那個時間點時，我們會再看看會是什麼樣子。

In terms of your second question around productivity, yes, we've historically said $1 billion. And yes, we'll be several hundred million dollars higher than that this year based on the actions that we've needed to take to try to help manage a challenging inflationary environment but one that we have pretty well under control.

至於你第二個關於生產力的問題，是的，我們歷來說的是 10 億美元。是的，基於我們為了協助管理具挑戰性的通膨環境而必須採取的行動——但這個環境我們其實控制得相當好——今年我們將會比這個數字高出數億美元。

Okay. So thank you, everybody, for joining us today and for the confidence you've placed in us with your investments, and we hope that you all stay safe and healthy. Thank you very much for your time. Thanks.

好的。那麼謝謝各位今天加入我們，也謝謝各位以投資對我們所給予的信心；我們也希望大家都能平安健康。非常感謝各位的時間。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

各位女士、先生，今天的簡報到此結束。您現在可以中斷連線，祝您有美好的一天。