百事 (PEP) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PepsiCo's 2022 First Quarter Earnings Question-and-Answer Session. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com.

早上好，歡迎來到百事公司 2022 年第一季度收益問答環節。 （操作員說明）今天的電話正在錄音，並將存檔在 www.pepsico.com。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Ravi Pamnani, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Pamnani, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係高級副總裁 Ravi Pamnani 先生。 Pamnani 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. I hope everyone has had a chance this morning to review our press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website.

謝謝你，接線員。我希望每個人今天早上都有機會查看我們的新聞稿和準備好的評論，這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. We may make forward-looking statements on today's call, including about our business plans and 2022 guidance. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, April 26, 2022, and we are under no obligation to update.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們的警告聲明。我們可能會在今天的電話會議上發表前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們的業務計劃和 2022 年指導。前瞻性陳述固有地涉及風險和不確定性，僅反映我們截至今天（2022 年 4 月 26 日）的觀點，我們沒有義務更新。

When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to our first quarter 2022 earnings release and first quarter 2022 Form 10-Q available on pepsico.com for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and additional information regarding our results, including a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from forward-looking statements.

在討論我們的結果時，我們指的是非 GAAP 措施，這些措施將某些項目排除在報告的結果之外。請參閱我們在 pepsico.com 上提供的 2022 年第一季度收益發布和 2022 年第一季度 10-Q 表格，了解非公認會計原則措施的定義和調節以及有關我們結果的其他信息，包括對可能導致實際結果顯著影響的因素的討論不同於前瞻性陳述。

Joining me today are PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, Ramon Laguarta; and PepsiCo's Vice Chairman and CFO, Hugh Johnston. (Operator Instructions)

今天加入我的是百事可樂的董事長兼首席執行官 Ramon Laguarta；和百事可樂的副主席兼首席財務官休約翰斯頓。 （操作員說明）

And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

有了這個，我將把它交給接線員來回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I wanted to ask about margins. And I guess on the last earnings call, I think the expectation was that margins would be intact. And I guess now with today's guidance, it implies maybe a step back in margins. So maybe, Hugh, could you talk a little bit about maybe how that's changed, where we stand now in terms of like net inflation as we exit the first quarter? And then what are some of the actions that you're taking, maybe besides pricing, to try to protect margins?

我想問一下利潤率。而且我猜在上次財報電話會議上，我認為預期是利潤率將保持不變。而且我想現在有了今天的指導，這意味著利潤可能會退一步。所以也許，休，你能談談這可能是如何改變的，在我們退出第一季度時，我們現在的淨通脹水平如何？那麼，除了定價之外，您還採取了哪些措施來保護利潤？

Yes, Bryan. A couple of things. One, inflation has clearly gotten a bit more challenging for the year. No question about that. We had previously indicated it was low teens. It's several points higher than that now. Number two, and we've always talked about this in the past, when we have inflation, the first thing we do is look internally to try to find opportunities to drive productivity. And we've been pretty good at driving productivity, but we're really stepping it up even a bit further this year, whether it's identifying areas of waste or whether it's looking for -- to leverage digital in a faster and more effective way or whether it's looking to leverage shared services more and more. We're obviously doing all of those things.

是的，布萊恩。有幾件事。第一，今年的通脹顯然變得更具挑戰性。對此毫無疑問。我們之前曾表示它是低齡青少年。比現在高了好幾分。第二，我們過去一直在談論這個問題，當我們遇到通貨膨脹時，我們要做的第一件事就是從內部尋找機會來提高生產力。我們在提高生產力方面做得非常好，但今年我們真的更進一步，無論是識別浪費區域還是尋找——以更快、更有效的方式利用數字技術，或者它是否希望越來越多地利用共享服務。我們顯然正在做所有這些事情。

After that, then we obviously look for revenue management opportunities, whether it's the way that we're merchandising product in-store or packaging mix or shallowing our promotions. And then obviously, price ultimately becomes a factor as well. So in terms of the overall impact, I mentioned that I thought margins would be pretty level on the last call. I think, by and large, that's going to be about the same as we go forward. So clearly, we'll decide what we need to do in the balance of the year in terms of further revenue management actions. Typically, we do that in Q4. But by and large, I think the margins will be relatively level year-over-year.

在那之後，我們顯然會尋找收入管理機會，無論是我們在店內推銷產品或包裝組合的方式，還是淡化我們的促銷活動。然後很明顯，價格最終也成為一個因素。因此，就整體影響而言，我提到我認為上次通話時的利潤率會相當水平。我認為，總的來說，這將與我們前進的方向大致相同。很明顯，我們將根據進一步的收入管理行動來決定我們需要在今年餘下的時間裡做什麼。通常，我們會在第四季度這樣做。但總的來說，我認為利潤率將與去年同期相比相對持平。

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So on that topic, maybe we can touch specifically a bit more on pricing. Obviously, very strong delivery in the quarter. Can you talk about consumer demand elasticity so far and what you're seeing? But more importantly, with the cost pressures we're seeing out there, can you talk about strategically how you think about pricing going forward? Is there room to take additional increases, if needed? And how you think about that in light of potential consumer sensitivity with inflation being at unprecedented type of levels?

所以關於這個話題，也許我們可以具體談談定價。顯然，本季度的交付非常強勁。你能談談到目前為止的消費者需求彈性以及你所看到的嗎？但更重要的是，鑑於我們看到的成本壓力，您能否從戰略上談談您對未來定價的看法？如果需要，是否有額外增加的空間？鑑於潛在的消費者敏感性以及通脹處於前所未有的水平，您如何看待這一點？

Dara, let me take a go, and then maybe Hugh can add some comments. Clearly, obviously, if you look at Q4 and Q1, the elasticities that we're having in the business are better than historical and better than what we had planned. So that's why we're raising our guidance for the year. This is valid both for developed markets and for developing markets. We were very concerned about developing markets that we're seeing -- if you see the numbers in LatAm, in Africa, Middle East and APAC, we're seeing good elasticities there as well, so positive.

達拉，讓我試一試，然後也許休可以添加一些評論。顯然，如果您查看第四季度和第一季度，我們在業務中擁有的彈性比歷史要好，也比我們計劃的要好。這就是為什麼我們要提高今年的指導。這對發達市場和發展中市場都有效。我們非常關注我們所看到的發展中市場——如果你看到拉丁美洲、非洲、中東和亞太地區的數字，我們也看到那裡的彈性很好，非常積極。

However, we think the consumer is very early in this process of adjusting to the new inflationary environment. I think there's going to be more consumer new behaviors adapting to the new realities. There are going to be channel mixes changes. There's going to be probably packaging mixes changes and some of the decisions consumers will stop doing certain things that we're doing, going out more, maybe traveling and so on. So we think we're early in the process. I think our categories do normally quite well in inflationary. And what makes us feel confident is that the -- in the last few years, we've invested a lot in the brands. And we've invested a lot in some new capabilities around revenue management, also understanding better opportunities for waste reduction in the company. And we've improved a lot of our execution capabilities in the store with more information and better executional tools.

然而，我們認為消費者在適應新的通脹環境的過程中還處於早期階段。我認為將會有更多的消費者新行為適應新的現實。將會有渠道組合的變化。包裝組合可能會發生變化，一些消費者將停止做我們正在做的某些事情，多出去走走，也許是旅行等等。所以我們認為我們處於這個過程的早期。我認為我們的類別通常在通貨膨脹方面做得很好。讓我們感到自信的是——在過去的幾年裡，我們在品牌上投入了大量資金。我們在收入管理方面的一些新功能上投入了大量資金，同時也了解了公司減少浪費的更好機會。我們已經通過更多信息和更好的執行工具提高了我們在商店中的許多執行能力。

So I think we feel that we're early in the process. At the same time, we feel rather confident that we can manage through this with a good balance between revenue management, holistic cost management. And our #1 objective is to keep the consumers with our brands. And obviously, if we can get new consumers to our brands, even better, during this process. So that's how we're approaching this in the short term.

所以我認為我們覺得我們處於這個過程的早期。同時，我們相當有信心，我們可以在收入管理和整體成本管理之間取得良好平衡。我們的第一目標是讓消費者繼續使用我們的品牌。顯然，如果我們能在這個過程中為我們的品牌吸引新的消費者，那就更好了。這就是我們在短期內處理這個問題的方式。

And then you were asking about long term. We -- these are the goals that we're setting for our teams. We have -- I've always said that we have very experienced leaders in the market. And this is clearly a battle that you fight market by market. And that gives us, again, I think, a better position to win versus other companies that are facing the same kind of inflation.

然後你問的是長期的。我們——這些是我們為團隊設定的目標。我們有——我一直說我們在市場上有非常有經驗的領導者。這顯然是一場逐個市場的戰鬥。我認為，與其他面臨同樣通貨膨脹的公司相比，這再次讓我們處於更有利的位置。

Yes. The only thing I'd add to that, Dara, is if you look over time, our categories have always performed pretty well during inflationary times. And as a result of that, I think as a company, our performance has been pretty inflation-resistant as well as recession-resistant, which obviously makes us a pretty good defensive stock.

是的。達拉，我唯一要補充的是，如果你隨著時間的推移，我們的類別在通貨膨脹時期一直表現良好。因此，我認為作為一家公司，我們的表現一直很好地抗通脹和抗衰退，這顯然使我們成為一支相當不錯的防禦性股票。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

Was curious if you could talk a little bit about impacts from Russia-Ukraine that are embedded in the outlook. Of course, saw the impairment charges on brands that you talked about before the conflict began and then also the charges on PP&E and so on. But I was curious about how Russia-Ukraine is impacting the revenue outlook and also the EPS outlook for the year in terms of operational elements.

很好奇您能否談談前景中嵌入的俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭的影響。當然，看到你在衝突開始之前談到的品牌減值費用，然後還有 PP&E 費用等等。但我很好奇俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭如何影響收入前景以及運營要素方面的年度每股收益前景。

Yes, Lauren. Russia, as I think we've shared in the past, is low single digits in terms of its overall size to us. Obviously, it's a bit of a drag in terms of our overall outlook. But elsewhere in the company, we're doing quite well. So I think we have a pretty conservative Russia outlook embedded in our guidance, which, I think, will put us in good stead for most of the outcomes that could occur as we go forward.

是的，勞倫。正如我認為我們過去所分享的那樣，俄羅斯的整體規模對我們來說是低個位數。顯然，就我們的整體前景而言，這有點拖累。但在公司的其他地方，我們做得很好。因此，我認為我們的指導中嵌入了相當保守的俄羅斯前景，我認為這將使我們在前進過程中可能出現的大多數結果處於有利地位。

Yes. And then with regards to Ukraine, obviously, we had to stop our operations there -- our manufacturing operations. We're still doing some sales. That's also impacting. It's also embedded in the -- in our guidance for the year where we reopened now our factory in Kyiv. Hopefully, we'll try to get back to operations in Ukraine as a safety situation allows us, but that's also embedded into our guidance.

是的。然後關於烏克蘭，很明顯，我們不得不停止我們在那裡的業務——我們的製造業務。我們還在做一些銷售。這也有影響。它也包含在我們在基輔重新開放工廠的那一年的指導中。希望我們會嘗試在安全情況允許的情況下恢復在烏克蘭的運營，但這也包含在我們的指導中。

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Bonnie Herzog。

I just wanted to get a quick clarification on your top line guide based on your comments. So are you now expecting a greater impact from volume growth this year? As you mentioned, you're maybe feeling better about elasticities going forward. And then I'd be curious to hear specifically how your immediate consumption business is performing in key regions for both your beverage and snack business. I'm asking in light of rising fuel prices. For instance, curious to hear if you guys are seeing any signs of pressure in this channel despite broad reopening in so many markets. And then looking forward, what strategy do you have in place to mitigate some of these pressures if they continue to intensify?

我只是想根據您的評論快速澄清您的頂級指南。那麼，您現在是否預計今年銷量增長會產生更大的影響？正如您所提到的，您可能對未來的彈性感覺更好。然後我很想知道您的直接消費業務在您的飲料和零食業務的關鍵地區的表現如何。鑑於燃油價格上漲，我問。例如，想知道你們是否在這個渠道看到任何壓力跡象，儘管在這麼多市場廣泛重新開放。然後展望未來，如果這些壓力繼續加劇，您有什麼策略來減輕其中一些壓力？

Sure. So Bonnie, why don't I start? Number one, obviously, the revenue guidance is up. That's a combination of a bit more volume and a bit more price, so balanced between the 2 in terms of the change from prior. And previously, we had indicated we don't expect much volume growth. So I think, obviously, that takes us to we expect a little bit of volume growth as the year progresses.

當然。那麼邦妮，我為什麼不開始呢？第一，顯然，收入指引上升了。這是更多的數量和更多的價格的組合，因此就與之前的變化而言，兩者之間是平衡的。之前，我們曾表示我們預計銷量不會有太大增長。因此，我認為，顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們預計銷量會有所增長。

In terms of immediate consumption channels, relatively small impact thus far. Obviously, we'll see how it plays out. Historically, it has impacted the beverage business a bit more than it's impacted the snack food business. I think that's because beverage incidence is just higher than snack food incidence. But so far, relatively muted impact on that, and the other channels are doing quite well. Take-home is still up big gross and foodservices growing at a nice healthy clip at this point.

在直接消費渠道方面，迄今為止影響相對較小。顯然，我們將看到它是如何發揮作用的。從歷史上看，它對飲料業務的影響要大於對休閒食品業務的影響。我認為這是因為飲料的發生率剛好高於休閒食品的發生率。但到目前為止，這方面的影響相對較小，其他渠道的表現也相當不錯。在這一點上，帶回家的總收入仍然很高，餐飲服務也在以一個不錯的健康水平增長。

Yes. If you think about immediate consumption, the away-from-home channel is growing very fast across the world. And also, in the U.S., it's recovering. So that is a positive to immediate consumption. There's a little bit of traffic decline in convenience stores but not meaningful at this point. And obviously, there, the strategy will be to gain space and gain share in that channel to compensate for whatever traffic dilution might be, also trying to be conscious of price points and entry points to the category in those channels. Internationally, we're not seeing mobility being impacted. And we're seeing immediate consumption very strong internationally as well. As I was saying earlier, we're seeing elasticity quite positive in emerging markets. So overall, I don't think that this is going to impact us in the coming period.

是的。如果您考慮即時消費，那麼遠離家庭的渠道在全球範圍內增長得非常快。而且，在美國，它正在復蘇。因此，這對立即消費是有利的。便利店的客流量有所下降，但目前沒有意義。顯然，該策略將是在該渠道中獲得空間並獲得份額，以補償可能出現的流量稀釋，同時還要注意這些渠道中該類別的價格點和切入點。在國際上，我們沒有看到流動性受到影響。我們看到國際上的即時消費也非常強勁。正如我之前所說，我們看到新興市場的彈性非常積極。所以總的來說，我認為這不會在未來一段時間內影響我們。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

I was just trying to check something in between the lines marketing, and I know you had SG&A was up last year, or actually, you're lapping $180 million in equity investment gain from the same period last 2 years. But just thinking, as you're mentioning, elasticities come in better. Obviously, that may change. But what are you embedding through the end of the year in terms of marketing from a dollar and rate perspective? And then for the places where you count on bottlers, was there any impact of stocking this quarter or ahead of price increases?

我只是想檢查一下行銷之間的一些事情，我知道你去年的 SG&A 上升了，或者實際上，你在過去兩年的同一時期獲得了 1.8 億美元的股權投資收益。但是，正如您所提到的，只是想一想，彈性會更好。顯然，這可能會改變。但是，從美元和利率的角度來看，您在今年年底之前在營銷方面嵌入了什麼？然後對於那些依賴裝瓶商的地方，本季度或在價格上漲之前庫存是否有任何影響？

Yes, Andrea. [Aiming] and hoping we're up roughly in line with revenue for the year. So that's where that will likely land. Yes.

是的，安德里亞。 [瞄準]並希望我們今年的收入大致與收入保持一致。所以這就是它可能會落地的地方。是的。

Yes. And then your question, Andrea, on the bottlers, no, there is -- there hasn't been any loading of bottlers for price increase. We don't follow these practices, neither with our retail partners. So whatever you see as sales is basically sell-in and sellout that we've had for the business.

是的。然後你的問題，安德里亞，關於裝瓶商，不，有 - 沒有任何裝瓶商增加價格。我們不遵循這些做法，我們的零售合作夥伴也不遵循。因此，無論您看到什麼銷售，基本上都是我們為業務所做的銷售和銷售。

Our next question comes from Laurent Grandet with Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆的 Laurent Grandet。

Ramon and Hugh, question on PBNA margin. I mean been progressing about 100 basis points in the quarter, almost back to the level of pre-COVID for the first quarter despite higher inflation. Could you please help share the impact of the high-cost inflation for PBNA specifically in the quarter? And also, could you give us maybe more color as to where the gains are coming from maybe dissecting between Tropicana divestiture, product mix? And where do we go from here?

Ramon 和 Hugh，關於 PBNA 保證金的問題。我的意思是，儘管通貨膨脹率較高，但本季度已上漲約 100 個基點，幾乎回到了第一季度 COVID 之前的水平。您能否幫助分享一下高成本通脹對 PBNA 的影響，特別是在本季度？而且，你能否給我們更多的色彩，讓我們了解收益來自哪裡，或者剖析 Tropicana 資產剝離、產品組合？我們從這裡去哪裡？

Yes. Thanks, Laurent. A couple of things, obviously, on that front. Number one, we continue to make progress in terms of cost management inside the business. And I've laid out for you all in the past sort of our pathway to mid-teens margins for the PBNA business. That thesis is still very much intact, and that's the plan we're executing against.

是的。謝謝，勞倫特。顯然，在這方面有幾件事。第一，我們在業務內部的成本管理方面繼續取得進展。在過去，我已經為大家列出了我們為 PBNA 業務實現十幾歲利潤的途徑。那篇論文仍然完好無損，這就是我們正在執行的計劃。

Obviously, inflation has put a bit more pressure on that. But the combination of the additional cost management actions that we've taken as well as, obviously, shallowing our promotions, and price increases and revenue management have allowed us to continue on that journey.

顯然，通貨膨脹對此施加了更大的壓力。但是，我們已經採取了額外的成本管理措施，顯然，我們的促銷活動淡化，價格上漲和收入管理使我們能夠繼續這一旅程。

We still very much expect to do exactly what we've said in the past, which is we'll progress along towards getting that business back to the margin levels that I mentioned earlier, something in the mid-teens over the course of the next several years. So I think we're making good progress, and it's going as we expected. Inflation, obviously, is higher than we expected, but we're taking actions to manage that.

我們仍然非常希望完全按照我們過去所說的去做，即我們將朝著讓該業務恢復到我之前提到的利潤率水平前進，在接下來的過程中達到十幾歲的水平幾年。所以我認為我們正在取得良好的進展，並且正如我們預期的那樣。顯然，通貨膨脹率高於我們的預期，但我們正在採取行動來控制它。

Yes. The key levers, Laurent, of that margin improvement stay intact, right? If you think about the portfolio, pivots that we're trying to do, those are really good work in progress. If you see the Gatorade performance, that's a high-margin business for us, clearly growing, again, at very fast pace. We're making good progress in energy. So that part of the transformation is good.

是的。洛朗，利潤率提高的關鍵槓桿保持不變，對嗎？如果你考慮一下我們正在嘗試做的投資組合和支點，這些都是正在進行中的非常好的工作。如果你看到佳得樂的表現，那對我們來說是一項高利潤的業務，而且顯然增長速度非常快。我們在能源方面取得了良好進展。所以轉型的那部分是好的。

We're also making good progress on efficiency and operating excellence. So there's -- the critical levers of that transformation continue intact. Clearly, inflation is a factor. But as Hugh was saying, we're doubling down on productivity and trying to sharpen the pencil a bit more on revenue management as well.

我們還在效率和卓越運營方面取得了良好進展。因此，這種轉變的關鍵槓桿仍然完好無損。顯然，通貨膨脹是一個因素。但正如 Hugh 所說，我們正在加倍提高生產力，並試圖在收入管理方面更加努力。

Our next question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vivien Azer 和 Cowen。

I was hoping to dive into your European EBIT margins. While I recognize that 1Q is a seasonally low quarter, Hugh, I was wondering if you could offer any incremental color on the margin compression that you saw in that segment this quarter.

我希望深入了解您的歐洲 EBIT 利潤率。雖然我承認第一季度是一個季節性低季度，休，但我想知道您是否可以為您在本季度該細分市場中看到的保證金壓縮提供任何增量顏色。

Sure, happy to. A couple of things. Number one, and you hit on the key point. It's a very small quarter for Europe. It's a very short quarter, and it's seasonally low in terms of the revenue as well. In terms of some of the factors in there, obviously, Eastern Europe sort of plays something of a role in terms of that number.

當然，很高興。有幾件事。第一，你抓住了關鍵點。對於歐洲來說，這是一個非常小的季度。這是一個非常短的季度，而且在收入方面也是季節性的低點。就其中的一些因素而言，顯然，東歐在這個數字方面起到了一定的作用。

Second one, we made a U.K. pension contribution, I think, of about $25 million. That's a relatively small number in the overall year. But in a 2-month quarter, it obviously has a disproportionate impact.

第二個，我們為英國的養老金繳款，我認為，大約 2500 萬美元。這在全年中是一個相對較小的數字。但在 2 個月的季度中，它顯然產生了不成比例的影響。

And then in addition to that, the SodaStream business was a little bit soft. That was a bit of a factor. And recall, we report SodaStream through Europe because that's the biggest market for the SodaStream business.

除此之外，SodaStream 業務有點疲軟。那是一個因素。回想一下，我們通過歐洲報告 SodaStream，因為這是 SodaStream 業務的最大市場。

Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

If I could dig into the guidance increase a little bit, better volume and price this quarter, of course. Are your expectations of volume price dynamic as we go through the rest of the year? Or is it you just kind of push just including the volume upside for this quarter as part of your full year?

當然，如果我能深入了解指導意見的增加，本季度的銷量和價格會更好。在今年餘下的時間裡，您對批量價格的預期是否會發生變化？還是您只是在將本季度的銷量上升作為全年的一部分進行推動？

Kaumil, there was a lot of echo there. And if I understand, your question was around our volume pricing guidance. We've raised the guidance on top line because we've seen better elasticities in the first part of the year. We -- our assumptions for the balance of the year are a bit more conservative on elasticities because, as I said earlier, within the context for the consumer might change, might not change. We're going to obviously try to do our best with our commercial plans and our people on the ground, with execution and better insights to minimize elasticities. Obviously, that's our role here.

Kaumil，那裡有很多迴聲。如果我理解，您的問題是關於我們的批量定價指南。我們提高了頂線的指導，因為我們在今年上半年看到了更好的彈性。我們 - 我們對今年餘額的假設在彈性方面更加保守，因為正如我之前所說，在消費者的背景下可能會改變，可能不會改變。顯然，我們將盡最大努力利用我們的商業計劃和我們的實地人員，通過執行和更好的洞察力來最大限度地減少彈性。顯然，這就是我們在這裡的角色。

But our assumptions going forward are a little bit more conservative because we think that the consumer will be feeling the overall inflation in their disposable income, and that might have an impact on the elasticities of our categories as well, although we think that our categories are -- normally fare quite well in inflationary and recessionary moments. And that's why we feel optimistic about raising the guidance to 8% on top of a very high, fast growth 9.5% last year. So clearly, we're growing very fast as a company.

但我們未來的假設會稍微保守一些，因為我們認為消費者將感受到其可支配收入的整體通脹，這也可能對我們類別的彈性產生影響，儘管我們認為我們的類別是- 通常在通貨膨脹和衰退時期表現得很好。這就是為什麼我們對在去年非常高、快速的增長 9.5% 的基礎上將指導值提高到 8% 感到樂觀的原因。很明顯，作為一家公司，我們的發展速度非常快。

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Great. I had a question on pricing as well, but from a different angle, really from a retailer's perspective. So the context, of course, your portfolio is in very large, essential and high-velocity categories that drive foot traffic for retailers. But looking at results in the syndicated data, your price/mix is up anywhere from low double digits to mid-teens in your larger categories. I know that's not all frontline pricing. Some of it's mix, but nevertheless, certainly not inconsequential for the consumer to cope with.

偉大的。我也有關於定價的問題，但從不同的角度，真正從零售商的角度來看。因此，當然，您的投資組合屬於非常大的、必不可少的和高速的類別，這些類別會為零售商帶來客流量。但是查看聯合數據中的結果，您的價格/組合在較大類別中從低兩位數上升到十幾歲左右。我知道這並不是所有的一線定價。其中一些是混合的，但無論如何，對於消費者來說，應對這些肯定不是無關緊要的。

So my question is, have the pricing discussions started to become more difficult with retailers, particularly your large customers to a point where maybe we're closer to a tipping point where it's going to be more difficult to put the pricing through? Or is the pricing window still very much open in your view? So your thoughts there would be helpful.

所以我的問題是，與零售商進行定價討論是否開始變得更加困難，尤其是您的大客戶，以至於我們可能更接近一個臨界點，定價將變得更加困難？還是您認為定價窗口仍然非常開放？所以你的想法會有幫助。

Yes. Listen, we're always make full commercial plan discussions with our customers, and we try to create value for both. And those joint business planning are the essence of our growth strategy. So we do that in full coordination with our partners, trying to make sure that we keep the consumer with us, we keep the shopper coming to the store, and it's a win-win proposition. So we'll do it. We've been doing it the same this year, of course, even with more intensity than in the past and more insights and more value discussions. And we plan to continue to do that as we go into the second half of the year and into the coming years.

是的。聽著，我們總是與客戶進行全面的商業計劃討論，我們努力為雙方創造價值。而這些聯合業務規劃是我們增長戰略的精髓。因此，我們在與合作夥伴充分協調的情況下做到這一點，努力確保讓消費者留在我們身邊，讓購物者光顧商店，這是一個雙贏的主張。所以我們會做的。當然，今年我們一直在做同樣的事情，甚至比過去更加激烈，更多的見解和更多的價值討論。我們計劃在下半年和未來幾年繼續這樣做。

Obviously, we're all concerned about elasticities and consumer reaction. So it is to our both interest to take this into consideration as we build the commercial plan. There are some geographies in the world where these discussions are a bit more tactical. I would say some of the European markets, there is a bit more friction when it comes to pricing. And actually, some of our net revenue in Q1 reflects some of these conversations and difficult realities. I would say, in the majority of the markets, these are done in collaboration with our customers and a very good value-creation, win-win discussions.

顯然，我們都關心彈性和消費者反應。因此，在我們制定商業計劃時考慮到這一點符合我們雙方的利益。世界上有些地區的這些討論更具戰術性。我想說一些歐洲市場在定價方面存在更多摩擦。實際上，我們第一季度的一些淨收入反映了其中一些對話和困難的現實。我想說，在大多數市場中，這些都是與我們的客戶合作完成的，並且是非常好的價值創造、雙贏的討論。

Our next question comes from Bob Ottenstein with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Bob Ottenstein。

Great. I was wondering if you could please remind us what your exposure is to China, what you're seeing there now and your long-term plans.

偉大的。我想知道您能否提醒我們您對中國的了解、您現在在那裡看到的情況以及您的長期計劃。

Sure. Robert, it's Hugh. Low single digits on revenue and very low single digits on (inaudible) is the number. In terms of our plans, I think we continue to execute in the marketplace. We -- on the snack business, we have a bottler in China who we've had a very successful relationship with. And obviously, in what's a challenging environment, we'll continue to do what we can to continue to operate well. So -- but low single digits and very low singles on the number.

當然。羅伯特，是休。收入的低個位數和非常低的個位數（聽不清）是這個數字。就我們的計劃而言，我認為我們將繼續在市場上執行。我們——在零食業務方面，我們在中國有一家裝瓶商，我們與之建立了非常成功的關係。顯然，在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們將繼續盡我們所能繼續良好運營。所以 - 但數字上的個位數很低，單數很低。

Yes. I would say, obviously, we're seeing the impact of the lockdowns in Shanghai and some other cities impacting somehow the consumer behavior. In general, I would say the in-home consumption is going up. There's been some stocking of our food business in the last few weeks. A little bit of lower mobility in the away-from-home channel, which impacted mostly the beverage business. Overall, this is performing as planned. And obviously, we're doing business contingency planning to make sure that we're ready in case some of the lockdowns impact our operating plans. But in general, I would say, the team is responding very well. And so far, we haven't seen an impact in our business, which, as Hugh said, is relatively small compared to the full size of the company.

是的。我想說，很明顯，我們看到了上海和其他一些城市的封鎖對消費者行為的影響。總的來說，我會說家庭消費正在上升。在過去的幾周里，我們的食品業務有一些庫存。離家渠道的流動性有所降低，這主要影響了飲料業務。總的來說，這是按計劃進行的。顯然，我們正在製定業務應急計劃，以確保我們做好準備，以防某些封鎖影響我們的運營計劃。但總的來說，我會說，團隊的反應非常好。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到我們的業務受到影響，正如休所說，與公司的整體規模相比，這相對較小。

And just to build on Ramon's point, I should have mentioned as well, our guide doesn't include a level of conservatism and an expectation that performance will be somewhat challenged based on the situation there.

並且只是為了建立拉蒙的觀點，我也應該提到，我們的指南不包括一定程度的保守主義，也不期望根據那裡的情況，表現會受到一些挑戰。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Ramon and Hugh, just a quick follow-up for me, actually, going back to Laurent's question on Russia-Ukraine. Hugh, you mentioned the contribution there at low single digits, which I think is a profit perspective. On revenue, I thought it was more like mid-single digits, I think, around 4.5% last year. So I guess in that context, just can you talk about how Russia-Ukraine factors into that 8% organic outlook because intuition would say that the business reductions there create a drag on organic growth that you're absorbing in that 8%? But then again, there's just likely so much nominal inflation in those markets. I'm not exactly sure how or whether Russia-Ukraine net out as a positive or a negative driver of organic growth as you calculated into what magnitude. So just some clarity there would be helpful.

Ramon 和 Hugh，實際上是對我的快速跟進，回到 Laurent 關於俄羅斯-烏克蘭的問題。休，你提到了低個位數的貢獻，我認為這是一個利潤的觀點。在收入方面，我認為它更像是中個位數，我認為去年約為 4.5%。所以我想在這種情況下，你能談談俄羅斯和烏克蘭是如何影響這 8% 的有機前景的嗎，因為直覺會說那裡的業務減少會拖累你在這 8% 中吸收的有機增長？但話又說回來，這些市場的名義通脹率可能很高。我不完全確定俄羅斯-烏克蘭如何或是否淨作為有機增長的積極或消極驅動因素，正如你計算的那樣。所以只是一些清晰會有幫助。

Sure, happy to. Your thoughts are right. Last year, Russia was about 4%. Obviously, with the current environment, we expect it to be less than that. That's my low single-digit comment. And yes, we -- it's incorporated into our guidance. We don't expect the business to deliver a lot of growth this year given all of the challenges and the decisions we've made. And it is, in fact, incorporated so that we capture that as a part of the 8%. So again, we're not getting into a ridiculous level of detail. Clearly, the business is going to be lower than it was in 2021 by a meaningful amount.

當然，很高興。你的想法是對的。去年，俄羅斯約為 4%。顯然，在目前的環境下，我們預計它會比這更少。這是我的低個位數評論。是的，我們 - 它已納入我們的指導。考慮到所有挑戰和我們做出的決定，我們預計今年業務不會實現大幅增長。事實上，它已被合併，以便我們將其作為 8% 的一部分。再說一次，我們沒有進入荒謬的細節水平。顯然，該業務將比 2021 年低很多。

Our next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

This is Filippo Falorni on for Nick. A question on your beverage alcohol strategy. Maybe if you can comment on how the HARD MTN DEW launch is performing in the States, where you've launched a product. And then more longer term and bigger picture, like give us an update on kind of your expectations for the beverage alcohol category and any potential new launches or initiatives there?

這是尼克的菲利波法洛尼。關於您的飲料酒精策略的問題。也許您可以評論一下 HARD MTN DEW 在美國的表現如何，您已經推出了產品。然後是更長期和更大的圖景，比如向我們介紹您對酒精飲料類別的最新期望以及任何潛在的新推出或舉措？

Yes. This is Ramon. Yes, listen, I think we're testing and learning at a fast speed, right, both Boston Beer Company is learning how to market and improve the products in their responsibility in the partnership. And we're also learning about how to distribute and sell low-alcohol beverages, which obviously have a lot of restrictions at the state and even municipality level. We're having to train our people in the right way and so on. So there's a lot of test and learning, very encouraging learnings actually as we see in the consumers.

是的。這是拉蒙。是的，聽著，我認為我們正在快速進行測試和學習，對，波士頓啤酒公司都在學習如何在合作夥伴關係中負責營銷和改進產品。我們也在學習如何分銷和銷售低酒精飲料，這顯然在州甚至市一級有很多限制。我們必須以正確的方式培訓我們的員工等等。因此，正如我們在消費者中看到的那樣，實際上有很多測試和學習，非常令人鼓舞的學習。

Obviously, Mountain Dew is a big brand, and it's generating a lot of excitement. There's a lot of initial trial. As always, in these circumstances, we have to wait and see repeats and see really where the business stabilizes. But I would say, good learnings for the organization. It's still very early in the process of building the infrastructure and the talent base and pretty good response from the consumer. Yes, we're going to continue to try to create new exciting products that will go through this platform in the future. And as we learn more about the consumer, together with our partners, we'll be able to, I think, innovate meaningfully in this category. But as I said, too early, too early yet to call it a huge success.

顯然，Mountain Dew 是一個大品牌，它引起了很多人的關注。有很多初步試驗。與往常一樣，在這種情況下，我們必須觀望重複，看看業務穩定在哪裡。但我想說，這對組織來說是很好的學習。基礎設施和人才基礎的建設還處於初期階段，消費者的反應也不錯。是的，我們將繼續嘗試創造新的令人興奮的產品，這些產品將在未來通過這個平台。隨著我們與合作夥伴一起更多地了解消費者，我認為我們將能夠在這一類別中進行有意義的創新。但正如我所說，還為時過早，尚未稱其為巨大成功。

Our next question comes from Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research.

我們的下一個問題來自消費者邊緣研究的 Brett Cooper。

I was just hoping you could update us on where you are on digitizing your relationship with customers and consumers, aspirations on both levels? And then I guess if I can nest underneath the consumer, if there's any challenges you guys have in going direct, given the independent bottling contracts?

我只是希望你能告訴我們你在數字化與客戶和消費者的關係方面的進展情況，以及兩個層面的願望？然後我想我是否可以在消費者下面築巢，如果你們在直銷方面有任何挑戰，考慮到獨立裝瓶合同？

Yes. It's a -- Brett, it's a journey that we started very quite some years ago, both on the consumer and the customer. I would say different levels of progress in different parts of the world. Probably, U.S. and Western Europe, more advanced when it comes to consumer interaction. The way we can kind of target our messaging in a much more granular way, and we make good progress how we're doing that, how we're making our media much more efficient by targeting better, so that's an important progress. The same with retailers, where obviously, we have platforms that are fully digitalized and allow our retailers to buy from us directly. And we're -- sufficiently smaller customers, fragmented trade around the world, that's a platform that we're benefiting both for better service and also some productivity, being able to target the retailer better.

是的。這是一個——布雷特，這是我們在幾年前開始的一段旅程，包括消費者和客戶。我想說的是世界不同地區的不同程度的進步。在消費者互動方面，美國和西歐可能更先進。我們可以以一種更細化的方式來定位我們的消息傳遞，我們在如何做到這一點方面取得了良好的進展，我們如何通過更好地定位來提高我們的媒體效率，所以這是一個重要的進展。零售商也是如此，顯然，我們擁有完全數字化的平台，允許我們的零售商直接從我們這裡購買。而且我們是——足夠小的客戶，在世界各地進行分散的貿易，這是一個平台，我們可以從更好的服務和一些生產力中受益，能夠更好地瞄準零售商。

So progress, good progress across. It's strategically a very important part of our journey, trying to both generate additional growth through personalization, through targeting the consumer. And that's a journey through innovation, through new digital tools, through better learning of our -- training of our people, our marketeers, our leaders in the marketplace. So it's a journey. I would say in emerging markets, we're a bit behind. But it's an investment that we're putting in place, part of our large investment in digitalization that we've been talking about for already a few years.

如此進步，跨越良好的進步。從戰略上講，這是我們旅程中非常重要的一部分，試圖通過個性化和針對消費者來產生額外的增長。這是一個通過創新，通過新的數字工具，通過更好地學習我們的旅程——培訓我們的員工、我們的營銷人員、我們的市場領導者。所以這是一個旅程。我想說，在新興市場，我們有點落後。但這是我們正在實施的一項投資，是我們幾年來一直在談論的對數字化的大規模投資的一部分。

Our last question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

So just 2 connected questions on cost and productivity, if I could. So you noted the prior outlook was for commodities to be low teens. I believe that's impacted COGS, and the company is now tracking higher by a couple of points. I guess that would imply things get worse from here. Can you just maybe help us with perspective on the ability you have in commodity expectations? I understand your locked specifically for the next few quarters. But spot exposure increases in Q4, and how you're thinking about incremental pricing in Q4?

因此，如果可以的話，只有兩個關於成本和生產力的相關問題。所以你注意到之前的前景是大宗商品價格低至十幾歲。我相信這對 COGS 產生了影響，該公司現在的跟踪價格上漲了幾個點。我想這意味著事情會從這裡變得更糟。您能否幫助我們了解您在商品預期方面的能力？我了解您在接下來的幾個季度中專門被鎖定。但是第四季度的現貨曝光增加了，您如何看待第四季度的增量定價？

And then just connected, Ramon, I think you noted a couple of times on the call that you're doubling down on productivity. Would you expect to be in a position to exceed the $1 billion in productivity savings target for the year? Or is this just more conceptual?

然後剛剛接通，拉蒙，我想你在電話會議上註意到你正在加倍提高生產力。您是否期望能夠超過今年 10 億美元的生產力節約目標？或者這只是更具概念性？

Yes, Chris. Yes, your math is right. We said low teens before, and it's -- it will be several points higher than that. In terms of what that means for Q4, when we typically see pricing in the business, we're still in the process of figuring out how much that will be. That's sort of our normal pricing window in the U.S., in particular. Obviously, other markets have different windows. So we'll see what that looks like when we get a little bit closer to the time.

是的，克里斯。是的，你的數學是對的。我們之前說過低青少年，而且它會比這高幾個點。就這對第四季度的意義而言，當我們通常看到業務定價時，我們仍在弄清楚這將是多少。這是我們在美國的正常定價窗口，尤其是。顯然，其他市場有不同的窗口。因此，當我們更接近時間時，我們會看到它的樣子。

In terms of your second question around productivity, yes, we've historically said $1 billion. And yes, we'll be several hundred million dollars higher than that this year based on the actions that we've needed to take to try to help manage a challenging inflationary environment but one that we have pretty well under control.

關於你關於生產力的第二個問題，是的，我們歷來說過 10 億美元。是的，根據我們為幫助管理具有挑戰性的通脹環境而需要採取的行動，我們將比今年高出數億美元，但我們已經很好地控制了這一環境。

Okay. So thank you, everybody, for joining us today and for the confidence you've placed in us with your investments, and we hope that you all stay safe and healthy. Thank you very much for your time. Thanks.

好的。因此，感謝大家今天加入我們，感謝你們對我們的投資對我們的信任，我們希望你們都保持安全和健康。非常感謝您的寶貴時間。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接，度過美好的一天。