百事 (PEP) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PepsiCo's first-quarter 2016 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加百事公司（PepsiCo）2016 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Jamie Caulfield, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Caulfield, you may begin.

今天的電話會議將被錄音，並將存檔於 www.pepsico.com。現在我很榮幸介紹投資人關係資深副總裁 Jamie Caulfield 先生。Caulfield 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. With me today are Indra Nooyi, PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, and Hugh Johnston, PepsiCo's CFO.

謝謝，接線員。今天與我一同出席的有百事公司董事長暨執行長 Indra Nooyi，以及百事公司財務長 Hugh Johnston。

We'll lead off today's call with a review of our first-quarter 2016 performance and full-year outlook and then we will move on to Q&A. We've kept our comments brief this morning and intend to conclude the call by 8:45.

我們將先回顧 2016 年第一季的表現與全年展望，接著進入問答。今天早上的發言我們會保持精簡，並預計在 8:45 前結束會議。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements regarding 2016 guidance based on currently available information.

在開始之前，請留意我們的警示性聲明。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括根據目前可得資訊所作之 2016 年指引相關陳述。

Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those predicted in such forward-looking statements. Statements made on this conference call should be considered together with cautionary statements and other information contained in today's earnings release and in our most recent periodic reports filed with the SEC.

前瞻性陳述本質上涉及風險與不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與該等前瞻性陳述所預測者出現重大差異。本次電話會議中的陳述，應與今日財報新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交之定期報告中所載的警示性聲明與其他資訊一併考量。

Unless otherwise indicated, all references to EPS and operating profit growth are on a core constant currency basis. All references to free cash flow exclude certain items.

除非另有說明，所有對 EPS 與營業利益成長的提及，均以核心、固定匯率基礎計算。所有對自由現金流的提及均排除特定項目。

In addition, references to organic revenue results in this call exclude the impact of acquisitions and divestitures, structural changes and foreign exchange translation. To find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures that we use when discussing PepsiCo's financial results you should refer to the glossary and other attachments to this morning's earnings release and to the investors section of PepsiCo's website under the events and presentations tab.

此外，本次電話會議中提及的有機營收結果，排除併購與處分、結構性變動以及外匯換算之影響。如欲查閱我們在討論百事公司財務結果時所使用之非 GAAP 指標的揭露與調節表，請參考今日早上財報新聞稿所附的詞彙表與其他附件，以及百事公司網站投資人專區中「活動與簡報」分頁下的相關內容。

As we discuss today's results please keep in mind that our first quarter comprises the 12 weeks ended March 19, our North American operations, and it is a short quarter for our international businesses reflecting the two months of January and February for most of our operations outside of North America. Also please take note that we have reclassified certain functional support costs from SG&A to cost of sales, prior-period amounts have also been reclassified and the details are footnoted on pages A1 of the Q1 earnings release. These changes do not impact PepsiCo's overall revenue, operating profit, net income or earnings per share.

在我們討論今日結果時，請記得我們的第一季包含截至 3 月 19 日止的 12 週（適用於北美業務），而對國際業務而言則為較短的一季，反映北美以外多數營運僅涵蓋 1 月與 2 月兩個月。另請留意，我們已將部分職能支援成本自 SG&A 重新分類至銷貨成本，前期金額亦已重新分類，相關細節於第一季財報新聞稿 A1 頁以註腳說明。這些變更不影響百事公司的整體營收、營業利益、淨利或每股盈餘。

Now it's my pleasure to introduce Indra Nooyi.

現在我很榮幸介紹 Indra Nooyi。

Thank you, Jamie. I'm pleased to report that 2016 is off to a good start with very strong operating results in the first quarter. Global snacks organic volume increased by 1.5% and global beverage organic volume increased 3%, the highest rate of quarterly beverage volume growth in three years.

謝謝你，Jamie。我很高興報告，2016 年開局良好，第一季營運成果非常強勁。全球零食有機銷量成長 1.5%，全球飲料有機銷量成長 3%，為三年來單季飲料銷量成長的最高水準。

We delivered 3.5% organic revenue growth led by high single-digit growth in Latin America and AMENA and 4% growth of Frito-Lay North America. Our five largest segments, Frito-Lay North America, North American Beverages, Latin America, ESSA and AMENA each had both positive organic volume growth and positive net pricing.

我們實現 3.5% 的有機營收成長，主要由拉丁美洲與 AMENA 的高個位數成長，以及菲多利北美（Frito-Lay North America）4% 的成長所帶動。我們最大的五個事業部門——菲多利北美、北美飲料、拉丁美洲、ESSA 與 AMENA——各自皆呈現有機銷量正成長與淨定價為正。

Core gross margins expanded by 130 basis points and core operating margins expanded by 165 basis points driven by the positive net pricing and continued execution of our productivity agenda including the implementation of our Smart Spending program. Core constant currency operating profit grew 12% and core constant currency EPS grew 11%.

核心毛利率擴張 130 個基點，核心營業利益率擴張 165 個基點，主要受惠於淨定價為正，以及我們持續推動生產力議程（包括導入 Smart Spending 計畫）的執行成果。核心固定匯率營業利益成長 12%，核心固定匯率 EPS 成長 11%。

It is noteworthy that we delivered these results in a volatile and uncertain macroeconomic environment. Most of the developed world outside the United States is grappling with slow growth. GDP growth in developing and emerging markets is also challenged with many D&E markets experiencing significant political unrest and high unemployment.

值得注意的是，我們是在波動且不確定的總體經濟環境中交出這些成果。除美國之外，多數已開發國家正面臨成長緩慢的困境。開發中與新興市場的 GDP 成長同樣承壓，許多開發中與新興（D&E）市場正經歷顯著的政治動盪與高失業率。

Key energy producing countries are dealing with significant budgetary gaps and high levels of local inflation in many of these markets are eroding disposable income and dampening consumer spending. It's a difficult environment indeed.

主要能源生產國正面臨顯著的預算缺口，而這些市場中許多地區的高本地通膨正在侵蝕可支配所得並抑制消費支出。這確實是一個艱困的環境。

Despite these macro challenges, we performed well. Our developing and emerging markets businesses grew organic revenue 7% with double-digit growth in China, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey.

儘管面臨這些總體挑戰，我們仍表現良好。我們在開發中與新興市場的業務有機營收成長 7%，其中中國、沙烏地阿拉伯、埃及與土耳其皆達到兩位數成長。

In the developed markets we grew organic revenue by 2% led by performance in the United States where we grew revenue 2.5%. In fact, in the first quarter PepsiCo was once again the largest contributor to food and beverage retail growth in the United States accounting for more growth than the next 17 largest manufacturers combined.

在已開發市場，我們的有機營收成長 2%，主要由美國的表現帶動，美國營收成長 2.5%。事實上，在第一季百事公司再次成為美國食品與飲料零售成長的最大貢獻者，其貢獻的成長量超過接下來 17 家最大製造商的總和。

We have performed well because our approach to operating in this environment is and has been to execute well against what we can control and to retool our business models and operating system to cope with what we believe could be sustained volatility and uncertainty. And this is really what we're doing.

我們之所以能有良好表現，是因為我們在此環境中的營運方式一直是、也將持續是：把可控的事情做到位，並重新調整我們的商業模式與營運系統，以因應我們認為可能持續存在的波動與不確定性。而這正是我們正在做的事。

First, we have accelerated our innovation agenda utilizing our proprietary demand spaces framework. This has led to our new products being more incremental and has contributed significantly to our overall organic revenue growth. We have increased the efficiency and effectiveness of new product launches by leveraging our global scale.

第一，我們運用自有的「需求空間」（demand spaces）架構，加速推進創新議程。這使得我們的新產品更具增量貢獻，並對整體有機營收成長做出顯著貢獻。我們也藉由全球規模優勢，提高新產品上市的效率與成效。

We are more quickly and effectively lifting and adapting successful product launches from one market to another, driving more rapid expansion of our largest brands as well as our future billion-dollar brands. For example, in the first quarter outside of North America Lipton ready-to-drink tea grew 10%, Mountain Dew grew volume 9%, Gatorade grew 9%, Naked Juice grew 60%, Sunbites grew 42% and Cheetos grew 9%.

我們能更快速且更有效地將某一市場成功的產品上市經驗移植並調整到其他市場，推動我們最大品牌以及未來十億美元品牌更快速擴張。例如，第一季在北美以外市場，立頓即飲茶（Lipton ready-to-drink tea）成長 10%，激浪（Mountain Dew）銷量成長 9%，佳得樂（Gatorade）成長 9%，Naked Juice 成長 60%，Sunbites 成長 42%，奇多（Cheetos）成長 9%。

We have continued to generate strong net price realization, even in a sluggish consumer environment, through enhanced revenue management capabilities and data analytics. We have introduced new price pack combinations tailored to much more targeted shopper and consumer occasions.

我們也透過強化的營收管理能力與數據分析，即使在消費疲弱的環境下，仍持續創造強勁的淨價格實現。我們推出新的價格與包裝組合，更貼近且更精準地對應特定的購物者與消費者情境。

For example, in North America over the past five years we have shifted approximately 6% of our carbonated soft drink volume/mix from traditional 2 liter and 12 ounce multipack packages to higher-margin, more profitable single-serve and alternative multicelled packages. These efforts have been driving higher net price realization for us and our retail partners.

例如，在北美，過去五年我們已將約 6% 的碳酸軟性飲料銷量／組合，從傳統的 2 公升與 12 盎司多入裝包裝，轉移至毛利更高、獲利性更佳的單次飲用（single-serve）與替代性多格（alternative multicelled）包裝。這些努力正為我們及我們的零售合作夥伴帶來更高的淨價格實現。

We have also been future proofing our product portfolio, reshaping it to capitalize on consumers' increasing interest in health and wellness. Just to give you an idea, we track two sets of numbers. First, what we view as everyday nutrition which includes products that provide positive nutrients like grains, fruit and vegetables and protein, plus those products that are naturally nutritious like water and unsweetened tea. These products account for almost 25% of our portfolio by revenue.

我們也在為產品組合建立面向未來的韌性，重新塑造產品組合，以掌握消費者對健康與福祉日益提升的興趣。為了讓各位有概念，我們追蹤兩組數據。第一，我們稱之為「日常營養」（everyday nutrition），包含提供正向營養素的產品，例如穀物、水果與蔬菜、蛋白質，以及天然具營養性的產品，例如水與無糖茶。這些產品以營收計約占我們產品組合的近 25%。

Second, what we view as guilt-free products. These include the everyday nutrition products plus diet beverages and other beverages that are below 70 calories per 12 ounces and snacks with low levels of sodium and saturated fat.

第二，我們稱之為「無負擔」（guilt-free）產品。這包括日常營養產品，加上無糖（diet）飲料及其他每 12 盎司低於 70 卡路里的飲料，以及鈉與飽和脂肪含量較低的零食。

Guilt-free products account for approximately 45% of our portfolio by revenue. The growth of our everyday nutrition products which accounts for a quarter of our global net revenue is outpacing the growth of the balance of the portfolio. And we've had a significant amount of activity underway to transform our portfolio.

無負擔產品以營收計約占我們產品組合的 45%。我們的日常營養產品（約占全球淨營收的四分之一）的成長速度，正超越產品組合其餘部分的成長。而且我們已展開大量工作，以轉型我們的產品組合。

Just to give you a few examples, we've broadened our beverage portfolio to lessen our reliance on colas and today we have the leading noncarbonated beverage portfolio in the United States. In fact, globally just 12% of our revenues comes from trademark Pepsi and less than 25% comes from carbonated soft drinks on a global basis.

僅舉幾個例子，我們已擴大飲料產品組合，以降低對可樂品類的依賴；而如今我們在美國擁有領先的非碳酸飲料產品組合。事實上，在全球範圍內，我們的營收只有 12% 來自百事（Pepsi）商標產品，而按全球口徑計算，來自碳酸軟性飲料的營收占比不到 25%。

We have invested in R&D to create advantaged sweetness solutions and lower calorie products and we are aggressively moving our portfolio to package and product combinations with fewer calories. Mountain Dew Kickstart, with just 40 calories per 8 ounces, is a great example of our execution in this area. Now in its third year, Kickstart generated more than $300 million in estimated retail sales in 2015 and posted a 34% volume growth in the first quarter of 2016.

我們已投資研發，以打造具優勢的甜味解決方案與更低熱量的產品，並正積極推動我們的產品組合轉向熱量更低的包裝與產品組合。Mountain Dew Kickstart 每 8 盎司僅 40 卡路里，就是我們在此領域執行力的絕佳例子。Kickstart 目前進入第三年，2015 年估計零售銷售額超過 3 億美元，且在 2016 年第一季實現 34% 的銷量成長。

We've also been shifting more of our beverage A&M to lower calorie products in order to accelerate growth in strategically advantaged subcategories. And we've increased the nutritional profile of our snacks and foods through the introduction of products like Smartfood Delights which grew volume over 75% in the first quarter; reduced fat Doritos, the top-selling Frito-Lay snack brand in schools, which grew volume 30% in the first quarter; and gluten-free Quaker Oats just to name a few. Net-net we feel pretty good about our portfolio transformation efforts.

我們也將更多飲料類的廣告與行銷（A&M）資源轉向低熱量產品，以加速在具策略優勢的次品類中的成長。同時，我們也透過推出多項產品來提升零食與食品的營養概況，例如：Smartfood Delights（第一季銷量成長超過 75%）；減脂 Doritos（學校通路中最暢銷的 Frito-Lay 零食品牌，第一季銷量成長 30%）；以及無麩質的桂格燕麥等，僅舉數例。總體而言，我們對產品組合轉型的努力成果感到相當滿意。

Next, we are building and investing in new capabilities to win in high-growth channels. To capitalize on increased out-of-home food and beverage consumption we have consolidated our food service resources into one team, enabling us to creatively leverage the breadth of our product portfolio with our customers and consumers.

接下來，我們正在建立並投資新的能力，以在高成長通路中勝出。為把握外食情境下食品與飲料消費增加的趨勢，我們已將餐飲服務（food service）資源整合為一個團隊，使我們能與客戶與消費者更具創意地運用我們廣泛的產品組合。

In the United States foodservice now represents approximately 14% of our total revenue and the first quarter outpaced the growth of the balance of other channels combined. This year we will be increasing the out-of-home availability of our everyday nutrition products, both snacks and beverages, through the targeted placement of approximately 20,000 Hello Goodness vending machines across North America.

在美國，餐飲服務目前約占我們總營收的 14%，且第一季的成長速度超過其他所有通路合計。今年，我們將透過在北美有針對性地投放約 20,000 台 Hello Goodness 自動販賣機，提高我們日常營養產品（零食與飲料）的外出場景可得性。

Our advertising and marketing has also become more impactful. First, we have stepped up our level of investment from 5.2% of sales in 2011 to 6.3% of sales in 2015. In the first quarter of 2016 our A&M expense increased by a further 65 basis points as a percentage of sales versus the prior-year quarter.

我們的廣告與行銷也變得更具影響力。首先，我們已將投資水準由 2011 年占銷售額的 5.2% 提升至 2015 年占銷售額的 6.3%。2016 年第一季，我們的 A&M 費用占銷售額比重較去年同期進一步增加 65 個基點。

At the same time, we have increased the effectiveness of our A&M investment by shifting more dollars into consumer facing, working A&M and by more effectively integrating social and digital media in our marketing campaigns. We have also accelerated our productivity programs, contributing to consistent core margin expansion and providing investment funding for growth initiatives. Since 2012, we have generated approximately $1 billion of annual productivity savings and we are on pace to do so again this year.

同時，我們也透過將更多資金轉向面向消費者、可直接帶動銷售的 A&M，並在行銷活動中更有效整合社群與數位媒體，來提升 A&M 投資的效益。我們也加速推進生產力計畫，促成核心利潤率的持續擴張，並為成長型投資計畫提供資金。自 2012 年以來，我們每年約創造 10 億美元的生產力節省，而今年也正朝著同樣目標邁進。

In addition, we have fully implemented our zero-based Smart Spending program across the enterprise. We are already seeing significant expense reductions in the areas targeted and our organization is fully mobilized to identify opportunities to drive even greater levels of productivity.

此外，我們已在全公司全面導入零基礎的 Smart Spending（智慧支出）計畫。我們已在所鎖定的領域看到顯著的費用降低，而組織也已全面動員，尋找機會以推動更高水準的生產力提升。

And then we stepped up our marketplace execution by working in creative new ways with our retail partners like unique joint execution of sports and entertainment properties, development of new and innovative merchandising and fountain equipment, execution of coordinated consumer promotions and leveraging the combined power of the PepsiCo product portfolio. So for example, with 7-Eleven, Doritos and Super Bowl all turning 50 this year in the first quarter we teamed up to offer consumers NFL experiences and prizes, including a trip to Super Bowl L. When consumers purchased a golden combo of any size, Doritos, Pepsi, Slurpee or grilled item, they could scan their 7-Eleven app to receive a code to unlock prices from teamupforgold.com.

接著，我們也透過與零售夥伴以創新的方式合作來強化市場執行力，例如：對運動與娛樂資產進行獨特的聯合執行、開發全新且創新的陳列與飲料機台設備、執行協同的消費者促銷活動，以及發揮百事公司（PepsiCo）產品組合的綜合力量。例如，今年 7-Eleven、Doritos 與超級盃（Super Bowl）都迎來 50 週年；在第一季我們攜手合作，向消費者提供 NFL 體驗與獎項，包括前往第 50 屆超級盃（Super Bowl L）的旅程。消費者購買任一尺寸的「黃金組合」（包含 Doritos、Pepsi、Slurpee 或烤製品項）後，可掃描其 7-Eleven App 以取得代碼，並至 teamupforgold.com 解鎖獎項。

At Albertsons we executed a joint promotion across PepsiCo's entire product portfolio in the All for Super Bowl sweepstakes. It was a massive blitz of in-store displays, in-circular advertising and online promotion.

在 Albertsons，我們針對「All for Super Bowl」抽獎活動，跨百事公司全產品組合執行聯合促銷。這是一場大規模的宣傳攻勢，包含店內陳列、型錄（circular）廣告以及線上推廣。

When consumers purchase two or more participating products in one transaction they qualified to enter to win $50,000, one of 50 NFLshop.com gift cards every week during the promotion period. These examples are by no means the exception to the rule. They are just a couple of demonstrations of how we are working creatively and collaboratively to deliver value to the consumer and be an indispensable growth partner for our retailers.

消費者在單筆交易中購買兩件或以上的指定產品，即可獲得參加抽獎資格，有機會贏得 50,000 美元獎金，以及在促銷期間每週抽出 50 張 NFLshop.com 禮品卡。這些例子絕非特例。它們只是我們如何以創意且協作的方式，為消費者創造價值，並成為零售商不可或缺的成長夥伴的幾個展示。

The actions we have taken and the investments we have made to strengthen our capabilities, our innovation, revenue management, portfolio transformation, customer service initiatives in particular, is what helped us deliver impressive operating results in the first quarter. We continue to achieve healthy net revenue realizations and new products continue to be an important contributor to our sales growth.

我們為強化能力、創新、收益管理、產品組合轉型，尤其是客戶服務相關計畫所採取的行動與投入的投資，正是幫助我們在第一季交出亮眼營運成果的關鍵。我們持續實現健康的淨營收實現（net revenue realizations），而新產品也持續成為銷售成長的重要貢獻來源。

Next in the context of an interesting macro backdrop we feel good about the state of our business and we're off to a good start in 2016. We believe we have the right plans in place. We have great people.

接下來，在頗具挑戰的總體環境背景下，我們對業務狀況感到樂觀，並在 2016 年取得良好開局。我們相信已具備正確的計畫。我們擁有優秀的人才。

We are executing well, we are investing in capabilities that will propel our future growth. We will continue to leverage our considerable advantages, our scale, geographic presence, product portfolio and Power of One synergy to succeed in this environment. And we are well positioned to achieve our 2016 financial targets.

我們執行到位，並正投資於將推動未來成長的能力。我們將持續運用我們顯著的優勢——規模、地理布局、產品組合以及「Power of One」協同效應——在此環境中取得成功。我們也已做好充分準備，以達成 2016 年的財務目標。

Many of our investors have commented to me that they value PepsiCo because of our sustained, reliable performance. As the stewards of this remarkable 50-plus year old enterprise, we are managing and investing in the business to extend the duration of performance while achieving returns above our cost of capital. And we are committed to ensuring that our best years are ahead of us.

許多投資人曾對我表示，他們重視百事公司，是因為我們長期、可靠的表現。作為這家擁有 50 多年歷史的卓越企業的管理者，我們正透過經營與投資來延長績效表現的持續性，同時實現高於資本成本的報酬。我們也致力於確保我們最好的歲月仍在前方。

With that, let me turn the call over to Hugh Johnston.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 Hugh Johnston。

Thank you, Indra, and good morning everyone. As Indra mentioned, we are pleased with the financial results for the first quarter and having a good start to the year with one quarter behind us gives us added confidence in achieving the financial targets we shared with you in February. And so as you saw in this morning's release we reaffirmed those targets.

謝謝你，Indra，各位早安。如 Indra 所提到的，我們對第一季的財務結果感到滿意；在年度開始後已完成一季並取得良好開局，讓我們對達成 2 月與各位分享的財務目標更具信心。因此，如各位今早在新聞稿中所見，我們重申了這些目標。

Specifically, we expect approximately 4% organic revenue growth excluding the impact of the 53rd week. And we expect 8% core constant currency EPS growth excluding the impact of deconsolidating our Venezuela operations and 6% when including the Venezuela impact. Notwithstanding our strong Q1 results, the macro outlook remains highly volatile and uncertain and for this reason we are maintaining a cautious stance on the external factors that influence our business.

具體而言，在排除第 53 週影響後，我們預期有機營收成長約 4%。在排除對委內瑞拉業務去合併（deconsolidating）影響後，我們預期核心、固定匯率下的每股盈餘（EPS）成長 8%；若納入委內瑞拉影響，則為 6%。儘管第一季表現強勁，總體前景仍高度波動且不確定；因此，我們對影響業務的外部因素仍維持審慎立場。

So balancing a positive view of our execution against a more negative view of the macros, we arrive at the conclusion to keep our revenue and earnings guidance unchanged. We expect foreign exchange translation to negatively impact both revenue and EPS by approximately 4 percentage points which is also unchanged from the full-year estimate we provided to you last quarter.

因此，在對我們執行力的正面觀點與對總體環境較負面的看法之間取得平衡後，我們的結論是維持營收與獲利指引不變。我們預期外匯換算將使營收與 EPS 均受到約 4 個百分點的負面影響；此預估亦與我們上季提供的全年估計一致。

As a reminder, we base our foreign exchange translation forecast on consensus rates. I know a number of you use spot rates which currently leads you to a less significant impact. Clearly as the year progresses this gap will resolve itself but we are holding to our outlook at a negative impact of 4% for the year for both revenue and EPS.

提醒各位，我們的外匯換算預測是以市場共識匯率為基礎。我知道各位之中有不少人使用即期匯率，而以目前即期匯率計算，影響看起來較不顯著。顯然，隨著年度推進，這個差距將會逐步收斂；但我們仍維持對全年營收與 EPS 均為負面影響 4% 的展望。

As a result, we continue to expect 2016 core EPS of $4.66. Our outlooks on the other metrics we provide remain unchanged and are set out in this morning's release.

因此，我們仍預期2016年核心每股盈餘（EPS）為4.66美元。我們對其他所提供指標的展望維持不變，並已載於今早發布的新聞稿中。

For the analysts on the call, as you update your models I'd ask that you consider the following factors. We have a more difficult core constant currency operating profit growth comparisons in the upcoming quarters at both Frito-Lay North America and North America Averages. We anticipate a slower rate of gross margin expansion versus Q1 as we expect raw material inflation which includes the impact of transaction related foreign exchange for the balance of the year compared to modest deflation in Q1.

給參與電話會議的分析師們，當你們更新模型時，我想請你們考量以下因素。在接下來幾個季度，菲多利北美（Frito-Lay North America）與北美飲料（North America Beverages）在核心、固定匯率口徑的營業利益成長比較基期將更為艱難。我們預期毛利率擴張速度將較第一季放緩，因為我們預期原物料通膨（包含交易相關外匯影響）在今年剩餘期間將出現，相較之下第一季為溫和通縮。

We will continue to invest in our business to drive sustainable long-term growth including a planned increase in advertising and marketing expense as a percentage of sales for the full year. While we expect lower corporate expenses for the full year, primarily driven by pension costs there will be quarterly volatility in this line item due to timing and you should not expect to see the rate of decline that we had in Q1 for the full year.

我們將持續投資於業務，以推動可持續的長期成長，包括全年廣告與行銷費用占銷售額比重的計畫性提高。雖然我們預期全年公司費用將較低（主要由退休金成本所帶動），但由於時點因素，該項目在各季度將出現波動，因此你們不應預期全年都能看到如第一季那樣的降幅速度。

The reinvestment of the 53rd week benefit will occur over the balance of the year and finally we will be lapping Venezuela earnings of approximately $0.03 per share in Q2 and $0.06 per share in Q3. Taken together, we expect balance-of-year EPS growth to be disproportionately weighted toward the fourth quarter.

第53週帶來的效益再投資將在今年剩餘期間進行；最後，我們在第二季將面臨委內瑞拉獲利約每股0.03美元的比較基期，在第三季則約每股0.06美元。綜合而言，我們預期今年剩餘期間的EPS成長將不成比例地偏向第四季。

With that, operator, we will take the first question.

那麼，接線員，我們將開始第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

（接線員指示）Dara Mohsenian，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. So obviously a tough macroenvironment as Hugh mentioned, Indra, and org sales in the quarter was slightly below your full-year guidance. So I was just hoping for an update on your level of visibility, you can hit 4% organic sales growth for the year particularly as pricing moderates internationally with less FX pressure and you lap over some of the pricing changes in potato chips and NA Beverages theoretically moderates a bit.

嗨，早安。如Hugh所提到的，Indra，宏觀環境顯然相當艱難，而本季有機銷售略低於你們的全年指引。因此我想請你們更新一下可見度：你們是否仍能達成全年4%的有機銷售成長？特別是在國際市場定價隨著外匯壓力減輕而趨緩，且你們在洋芋片與北美飲料的部分定價調整進入比較基期後，理論上也會稍微趨緩。

And then also if you could just comment specifically on the North American carbonated soft drink pricing environment? The 1% NAB result is below what we saw last year, so has anything changed from a competitive standpoint? Thanks.

另外，也請你們具體評論一下北美碳酸軟性飲料（CSD）的定價環境？北美飲料（NAB）1%的結果低於我們去年看到的水準，所以競爭面是否有任何變化？謝謝。

In terms of visibility for balance of the year, again we can talk about what we control. Our innovation pipeline is looking good.

就今年剩餘期間的可見度而言，我們再次談談我們能掌控的部分。我們的創新產品管線看起來不錯。

Remember the first quarter is not really the season for international because it's only two months. And so we are really entering the season now. And based on the innovation pipeline, based on the execution capability of our businesses and knowing what we've sold into customers around the world, both on retail and food service, at this point we feel optimistic about our revenue guidance for the year.

請記得，第一季其實不算是國際市場的旺季，因為只有兩個月。所以我們現在才真正進入旺季。基於創新產品管線、基於我們各業務的執行能力，以及我們已向全球客戶（零售與餐飲服務）銷售的情況，目前我們對全年營收指引感到樂觀。

Again, this is based on everything that we can control and based on our assessment of the tough macroeconomic environment as we see it today. So I'd say as the year progresses we will know more but we feel reasonably optimistic about our 4% earnings guidance for the year -- revenue, sorry, revenue, pardon me.

同樣地，這是基於我們能掌控的一切，以及基於我們對當前所見艱難宏觀經濟環境的評估。因此我會說，隨著年度推進我們會知道更多，但我們對全年4%的獲利指引感到相當樂觀——營收，抱歉，是營收，請原諒我。

Let me that now turn to the North American pricing. Again when we look at 1% pricing here it's really rounded down. It was closer to 1.5%.

接著我來談談北美的定價。同樣地，當我們看到這裡1%的定價時，其實是四捨五入向下。更接近1.5%。

And again we are just now entering the season. So based on what we've seen in the marketplace we actually see quite a lot of discipline in pricing. And our hope is that given the dynamics of the CSD category in particular that there will be continued discipline based mostly on revenue management and careful mix management.

而且我們現在才剛進入旺季。因此，根據我們在市場上看到的情況，實際上我們看到定價相當有紀律。我們希望，鑑於特別是碳酸軟性飲料（CSD）品類的動態，能夠持續維持這種紀律，主要仰賴收益管理以及審慎的組合管理。

And that's really what we're focused on. And our goal is to make sure the we don't do anything crazy on pricing because pricing actions don't really drive volume growth. So we're just making sure that we focus on mix management and revenue management to keep getting the positive price realization going through the year.

這正是我們的重點。我們的目標是確保在定價上不做任何過激的事，因為定價行動並不真正帶動銷量成長。因此我們只是確保聚焦於組合管理與收益管理，讓正向的價格實現能在全年持續。

Dara, to be also specific on CSD pricing, IRI showed 2.5% CSD pricing for the quarter. LRB was about 1.8% which is consistent with what we've been seeing. So I think we continue to view the pricing environment as quite rational.

Dara，若更具體談CSD定價，IRI顯示本季CSD定價為2.5%。LRB約為1.8%，這與我們一直看到的情況一致。所以我認為我們仍將定價環境視為相當理性。

John Faucher, JPMorgan.

John Faucher，摩根大通。

Thank you, good morning. It was interesting, I realize the corporate expense was a little more favorable which you mentioned in the call. But you guys, we saw a little bit less of an investment in SG&A this quarter versus what we've been seeing let's say over the past year and a half and really since the rebase back in 2012.

謝謝，早安。這很有意思，我知道你們在電話會議中提到公司費用稍微更有利。但我們看到你們本季在銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）上的投資，較過去一年半、甚至自2012年重新基準（rebase）以來所見略少一些。

So can you talk a little bit about where you think your investment levels are versus where you need to be and the balance between sort of reinvestment and margin expansion as we look out over the next couple of years? Thanks.

所以你們能否談談，你們認為目前的投資水準相較於所需水準如何，以及在未來幾年展望下，再投資與利潤率擴張之間的平衡？謝謝。

Hey, John, this is Hugh. I'm not sure exactly how you're measuring less investment in SG&A. So it's probably worth a conversation offline on that.

嗨，John，我是Hugh。我不太確定你是如何衡量SG&A投資較少的。所以這可能值得我們會後再聊。

What I can say is number one, A&M was up 65 basis points year over year. So we continue to see strong push into A&M.

我能說的是，第一，廣告與行銷（A&M）年增65個基點。因此我們持續看到對A&M的強力投入。

Number two, we do continue to invest in capabilities that enable globalization of best practices. And that's having a profoundly positive effect on both the innovation as well as the productivity of the Company.

第二，我們確實持續投資於能促進最佳實務全球化的能力建設。這對公司的創新以及生產力都帶來極其正面的影響。

What I suspect you may be seeing is the impacts of Smart Spending which is off to a very successful start as of late last year and into this year. Certain of the big buckets that we're focused on in Smart Spending, whether it be travel or facilities, are actually down by meaningful percentages.

我猜測你可能看到的是「智慧支出」（Smart Spending）的影響；該計畫自去年稍晚啟動以來、並延續到今年，開局非常成功。我們在智慧支出中聚焦的一些大項目，不論是差旅或設施，實際上都以顯著的百分比下降。

So I think what you may be seeing is the net of that reflects a less margin invested in SG&A than you perhaps have seen in previous quarters. But I don't want you to think that we're not investing in the brands and we're not investing in capabilities to drive performance. We absolutely are.

所以我認為你可能看到的是：這些因素相抵後，反映在SG&A中投入的利潤率比重，較你在前幾季看到的要少。但我不希望你認為我們沒有投資品牌，也沒有投資能驅動績效的能力。我們絕對有。

We're committed to increasing A&M. We're investing in R&D, investing in e-commerce. The capabilities on supply chain so that we can start thinking about the future, data analytics, we've got increased investment in every bucket right now.

我們承諾提高A&M。我們投資研發（R&D）、投資電子商務。供應鏈能力方面，讓我們能開始思考未來；資料分析方面，我們目前在每一個項目上都增加了投資。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

Bryan Spillane，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning everyone. So just a question about I guess the mix in organic sales growth between volume and price mix and really just in North America and more sort of a question going forward. Right now you know we're seeing more of a contribution through revenue management I guess of price mix and you've supported that with product with advertising.

嗨，各位早安。我想問一個問題，關於有機銷售成長中「銷量」與「價格/組合」之間的組成，主要聚焦在北美，並且更偏向未來的問題。目前我們看到更多的貢獻來自收益管理所帶動的價格/組合，而你們也透過產品與廣告來支持。

Just how sustainable do you think that is going forward over the next couple of years? And I guess my question is just at some point will we need to begin to see maybe more volume growth in order to sustain that kind of organic sales growth or are we comfortable that we can continue to kind of have mix be a big component of the organic growth? Thanks.

你們認為這在未來幾年有多可持續？我想問的是：在某個時間點，為了維持那樣的有機銷售成長，我們是否需要開始看到更多的銷量成長？還是我們可以接受並相信組合仍能持續成為有機成長的重要組成？謝謝。

You know, Bryan, I don't think there's a clear answer to that. This is like an accordion. We go back and forth.

你知道，Bryan，我不認為這件事有一個明確的答案。這就像手風琴一樣。我們來回拉鋸。

A couple years you get volume growth and then a couple of years you get more revenue growth because you have more opportunity to do mix management. When we premiumize the portfolio, for example, we get more revenue than we do volume because you get very good price realization on premium products. And right now with the launch of lots of premium beverages and launch of premium products coming out of Frito-Lay we're getting good price realization on that score.

有幾年你會看到銷量成長，接著又有幾年你會看到營收成長更快，因為你有更多機會做組合管理。例如，當我們把產品組合高端化時，營收成長會大於銷量成長，因為高端產品能實現非常好的價格落地。而目前隨著大量高端飲料的推出，以及Frito-Lay推出高端產品，我們在這方面也取得了良好的價格落地。

And clearly when you do revenue management, even shifting to smaller packages, mini cans you don't get much volume lift but you get revenue lift. And I think, as I look into the future I think you're going to see some volume growth, you're going to see effective mix management both from a revenue management perspective and the product portfolio itself giving us robust revenue growth.

而且很明顯，當你做營收管理時，即使只是轉向較小包裝、迷你罐，銷量提升不大，但營收會提升。我認為，展望未來，你會看到一些銷量成長；同時，無論從營收管理的角度，或是產品組合本身，我們都會看到有效的組合管理，進而帶來強勁的營收成長。

A couple of years from now let's come back and revisit it but right now that's the strategy going forward. And then we are very judicious in where we add capacity to make sure that we look at the realities of the volume growth in the marketplace.

幾年後我們再回來重新檢視，但就目前而言，這就是未來的策略。此外，我們在增加產能的地點上非常審慎，以確保我們會考量市場上銷量成長的現實情況。

Bill Marshall, Barclays.

Bill Marshall，Barclays。

Good morning, thank you very much. I was just curious, you've alluded to the tough macro backdrop on a couple of occasions here. Two markets in particular that jump out, Brazil and Russia.

早安，非常感謝。我只是好奇，你在這裡已經幾次提到嚴峻的總體經濟背景。有兩個市場特別顯眼：巴西和俄羅斯。

You've got fairly sizable businesses in both of those markets. I was just curious if you can give us a sense of what you're seeing on the ground and how your business has been operating maybe compared to the more broader challenges that we've seen from a macro perspective? Thank you.

你們在這兩個市場都有相當規模的業務。我想請教你能否分享一下你們在當地看到的情況，以及你們的業務運作相較於我們從總體面看到的更廣泛挑戰，表現如何？謝謝。

Brazil is a tough, tough, tough market. It's a fundamentally a good market. The population, the demographics are pretty good.

巴西是一個非常、非常、非常艱難的市場。但它從根本上來說是一個好市場。人口與人口結構都相當不錯。

And when the country performs well things are good. But recently in the last I'd say 12 to 18 months there's been a lot of self-induced problems in Brazil. And then the slowdown in China clearly has had an impact on Brazil because Brazil was a commodity supplier to the robust growth in China.

當這個國家表現良好時，一切都很好。但最近我想說在過去12到18個月，巴西出現了很多自我造成的問題。此外，中國放緩顯然也對巴西造成影響，因為巴西曾是中國強勁成長的商品供應國。

So it's going to take some time for Brazil to get through its issues, its own political problems and then of course the global commodity price slump right now. So we are cautious in our approach to Brazil, focused more on value products and where we can get some premium pricing in we try to get it in. But Brazil has been -- I think globally Brazil is one of the toughest economic situations today.

因此，巴西要走出自身議題需要一些時間，包括其政治問題，當然還有目前全球大宗商品價格下滑。所以我們對巴西採取審慎策略，更聚焦於價值型產品；而在能取得一些高端定價的地方，我們也會努力爭取。但巴西一直是——我認為在全球範圍內，巴西是當今最艱難的經濟情勢之一。

In the case of Russia, our core business is doing quite well because it's one of those markets where we have a spectacular portfolio, very balanced between all day parts, between Good For You products, Fun For You, Better For You, it's a wonderful balance of products we have in Russia. And the Russian consumer's a good consumer and we have a scale business covering all of Russia.

至於俄羅斯，我們的核心業務表現相當好，因為那是一個我們擁有極佳產品組合的市場，在各個時段（all day parts）之間非常均衡，涵蓋Good For You產品、Fun For You、Better For You，在俄羅斯我們的產品組合平衡得非常好。而俄羅斯消費者是很好的消費者，我們也擁有覆蓋全俄羅斯的規模化業務。

I think two issues are impacting Russia. One is the ruble and where it stands because when you have dollar-denominated costs coming into Russia clearly it squeezes the middle of the P&L and you can't price enough to cover all of it because the Russian consumer, which brings me to the second point, Russian consumer wages are not going up as much as the cost of living bucket suggests it should go up. So there's a bit of a squeeze going on.

我認為有兩個議題正在影響俄羅斯。第一是盧布及其匯率水準，因為當以美元計價的成本進入俄羅斯時，顯然會擠壓損益表（P&L）的中段，而你無法透過提價完全彌補；這也帶到第二點：俄羅斯消費者的薪資成長，並沒有像生活成本籃子所暗示的那樣上升。所以目前存在一定程度的擠壓。

But all things considered, our team in Russia is mostly Russian doing a very, very good job navigating through these issues in Russia. And I must say, but for these global macro conditions, especially the strength of the dollar squeezing the cost structure, we have a good business in Russia. And the team is doing a good job running it right now.

但綜合來看，我們在俄羅斯的團隊多數是俄羅斯人，正在非常、非常出色地應對這些問題。我必須說，若不是這些全球總體環境，特別是美元走強擠壓成本結構，我們在俄羅斯的業務其實很好。而團隊目前也把業務經營得很好。

Caroline Levy, CLSA.

Caroline Levy，CLSA。

Good morning, Indra and Hugh. Question on the charge you took in China, if you could just elaborate what's going on with Tingyi-Asahi Beverages and what you think for the outlook, I mean so what drove the charge, what's the environment like in China and what do you think the outlook is for your business there?

早安，Indra和Hugh。關於你們在中國提列的減損費用（charge），能否再多說明一下Tingyi-Asahi Beverages發生了什麼，以及你對前景的看法？也就是說，這筆減損是由什麼驅動的、中國的環境如何、以及你認為你們在那裡的業務前景如何？

Let me start off by saying, Caroline, that Tingyi is still the leader in the beverage market in China, still has the most phenomenal infrastructure, widely covers China with all manufacturing technologies, cold fill, hot fill, aseptic, water lines, you name it, they are an amazing scale player and they remain a valuable partner to PepsiCo. I think Tingyi has been impacted by a couple, three issues. They are a public company, you've seen all their disclosures and announcements, I'm not going to share with you anything that you don't know.

Caroline，我先說明：Tingyi仍然是中國飲料市場的領導者，仍擁有極其出色的基礎設施，以各種製造技術廣泛覆蓋中國——冷灌、熱灌、無菌、瓶裝水產線等等，你想得到的都有；他們是令人驚嘆的規模型玩家，並且仍是百事公司（PepsiCo）非常有價值的合作夥伴。我認為Tingyi受到兩三個因素影響。他們是上市公司，你也看過他們所有揭露與公告，我不會跟你分享任何你不知道的內容。

But basically the slowdown in the Chinese market for beverages overall driven by the macros and some of the operational issues that Tingyi has had to cope with because of the changes they were making to make their system more efficient has taken a short-term hit in performance. I think the readthrough has been that we, too, took a bit of a marginal hit in beverages in our performance as we've talked about openly in our earnings calls.

但基本上，受總體因素影響，中國整體飲料市場放緩；再加上Tingyi為了提升系統效率而進行變革時，必須應對的一些營運問題，導致其短期績效受到衝擊。外界的解讀是，我們在飲料業務的表現也受到一些邊際影響，正如我們在財報電話會議中公開談到的。

But having said that, within China we have a very good business in foods and nutrition and our beverage business sequentially it is beginning to do better. So we remain cautiously optimistic.

但即便如此，在中國我們的食品與營養業務表現非常好，而我們的飲料業務按期（sequentially）也開始改善。因此我們仍保持審慎樂觀。

As far as our partnership with Tingyi is concerned, look, our ownership was based on a price that we recorded when we purchased the transaction. Since that time the overall Chinese market has come down a lot. And secondly, because of Tingyi's own performance their stock has come down quite a bit, and so we felt it was prudent to mark down the value of our investment.

至於我們與Tingyi的合作關係，你看，我們的持股是以當初完成交易時所記錄的價格為基礎。自那之後，中國整體市場下跌了很多。第二，由於Tingyi自身的表現，他們的股價也下跌不少，因此我們認為審慎起見，有必要下調我們投資的價值。

Having said that, we remain very committed to the Tingyi partnership. And once they get through their issues which they have to get through we can help them, but they are a public company, we'll be back to a partnership that continues to sing.

話雖如此，我們仍然非常致力於與Tingyi的合作。等他們度過必須度過的問題後——我們可以協助他們，但他們是上市公司——我們將回到一個持續表現出色的合作關係。

Bill Schmitz, Deutsche Bank.

Bill Schmitz，Deutsche Bank。

Hi, good morning. Is it safe to assume that the pricing in emerging markets is going to lap in the back of the year? And I was just curious for you and the industry kind of what happens when those laps take place? And then maybe if you could just sort of disaggregate the mix benefit versus the price benefit.

嗨，早安。是否可以合理假設，新興市場的定價在今年下半年會進入「同比基期效應」（lap）？我也想請教，對你們以及整個產業而言，當這些lap發生時通常會怎麼演變？另外，如果可以的話，能否把組合（mix）帶來的效益與價格（price）帶來的效益稍微拆分說明？

Yes, Bill, this is Hugh. I think it's safe to assume that we'll continue to get good solid pricing in those markets. I understand what you're pointing out is as dollar-based commodities become less inflationary in local terms will we continue to get the same level of commodity driven pricing remains to be seen.

是的，Bill，我是Hugh。我認為可以合理假設，我們在那些市場仍會持續取得良好且穩健的定價。我理解你指出的是：當以美元計價的大宗商品以當地貨幣衡量的通膨壓力下降時，我們是否仍能維持同等程度、由商品成本驅動的定價，這還有待觀察。

Part of our pricing is obviously driven by commodities, part of it is driven by what else is happening in the local economy. To the degree that pricing is less, I do expect that we will see some volume bounceback. Because in those markets when you have emerging consumers that are entering the categories, obviously as we take less price we tend to increase adoption more rapidly.

我們的定價有一部分顯然是由大宗商品驅動，另一部分則取決於當地經濟中其他正在發生的事情。在定價壓力降低的程度上，我確實預期我們會看到一些銷量反彈。因為在那些市場，當新興消費者進入這些品類時，顯然當我們少漲價時，往往會更快提升採用率（adoption）。

So I think we probably will see a bit more volume and a bit less price in developing and emerging markets in the back half of the year but that remains to be seen. The outlook as we've talked about earlier is not just not overly positive, it's also quite uncertain.

所以我認為，今年下半年在已開發與新興市場，我們可能會看到銷量略有增加、價格略有下降，但仍有待觀察。如同我們先前談到的，展望不僅不算特別正面，也相當不確定。

Regarding mix versus rate, I assume that's a North America beverage question because that's a tough one to answer globally. About two-thirds of the pricing benefit that we saw in the first quarter was rate and about a third was mix.

關於組合（mix）與價格（rate），我猜這是北美飲料的問題，因為要在全球層面回答確實很難。我們在第一季看到的定價效益中，大約三分之二來自價格（rate），約三分之一來自組合（mix）。

So we continue to see good balance. In fact, if anything we probably got a little bit more rate than we have been getting in the previous quarters.

因此我們持續看到良好的平衡。事實上，如果要說的話，我們拿到的價格（rate）可能比前幾季略多一些。

Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

Judy Hong，高盛。

Thank you, good morning. So I guess on margins, if I look at the Q1 performance and then the outlook for the balance of the year, it seems like Q1 certainly benefited from very strong margin performance and then maybe the balance of the year you are really looking for very little margin expansion.

謝謝，早安。我想就毛利率而言，如果我看第一季的表現以及今年剩餘期間的展望，感覺第一季確實受惠於非常強勁的毛利率表現，而今年其餘時間你們可能只是在尋求非常有限的毛利率擴張。

So Hugh, I know you went through some of the drivers but if you could elaborate a little bit more just in terms of the Q1 beat? And particularly I think Frito had very strong margins and then how sort of that phasing works out for the balance of the year?

所以 Hugh，我知道你提到了一些驅動因素，但你能否再多說一點，特別是第一季優於預期（beat）的部分？尤其我認為 Frito 的毛利率非常強勁，那麼這種節奏（phasing）在今年其餘時間會如何展開？

Yes, Judy, happy to try to add a bit more on that. As I mentioned during the prepared remarks portion of the script, commodities were a little bit deflationary in Q1 because of the overlaps, particularly overlaps around energy prices, commodities will return to a bit inflationary in the balance of the year. So obviously that's a drag on margins.

好的，Judy，我很樂意就此再補充一些。如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的，第一季大宗商品價格因為比較基期重疊而略呈通縮，尤其是能源價格的重疊；在今年其餘時間，大宗商品將回到略為通膨的狀態。因此這顯然會對毛利率造成壓力。

Number two, there were certainly some timing of expenses, particularly as related to corporate expenses as I mentioned, that gave us a big tailwind. Corporate expenses overall will be down in 2016 but they won't be down at the same rate that you saw in Q1.

第二，確實有一些費用時點的因素，特別是我提到的公司費用相關，為我們帶來了很大的順風。2016 年整體公司費用會下降，但不會像第一季那樣以同樣的幅度下降。

So for the balance of the year it will spread itself out a bit more evenly. The net of all of that is I would expect less margin improvement in Q2 and Q3 and then you'll see stronger margin improvement again in Q4.

因此在今年其餘時間，這些影響會更平均地攤開。綜合以上，我預期第二季與第三季的毛利率改善會較少，而到了第四季你會再次看到較強的毛利率改善。

Steve Powers, UBS.

Steve Powers，瑞銀。

Good morning. Thanks.

早安。謝謝。

I guess two if I could. Hugh, you mentioned the worsening macro assumptions in your outlook versus a few months ago. Could you just talk maybe about where those incremental concerns are most focused?

我想問兩個問題。Hugh，你提到相較於幾個月前，你們在展望中採用了更悲觀的總體假設。你能否談談這些新增的疑慮主要集中在哪些地方？

And then Indra, picking up on your comments on new product innovations, could you update us on how much of your revenue is driven by new product innovation, whether that differs materially across divisions? And I guess also if there's a measure you look at to assess the longevity of new product contributions, in other words differentiating between sort of short-term flavor extensions and more lasting successes like Kickstart has come to represent? Thanks.

另外 Indra，延續你對新產品創新的評論，你能否更新一下你們有多少營收是由新產品創新所驅動？不同事業部之間是否有顯著差異？另外我想問，你們是否有一個衡量指標用來評估新產品貢獻的持久性，也就是區分短期的口味延伸與像 Kickstart 這樣更長期的成功？謝謝。

Go ahead, Hugh.

Hugh 你先說。

Yes, so I think the two places where we're probably incrementally less optimistic, number one is South America, not Mexico. Mexico I think we're quite positive on but the balance of South America obviously is a challenge.

好的，我認為我們在兩個地方可能相對更不樂觀。第一是南美洲（不含墨西哥）。我認為我們對墨西哥相當正面，但南美洲其他地區顯然是一項挑戰。

And then number two is Eastern Europe. Eastern Europe is obviously continuing to be challenged from a GDP perspective and that flows through to disposable income and therefore to consumer spending on our products. The balance I think were probably roughly in line with where we've been.

第二是東歐。從 GDP 的角度來看，東歐顯然仍持續面臨挑戰，這會影響可支配所得，進而影響消費者在我們產品上的支出。其餘部分我認為大致與我們先前的看法差不多。

And in terms of new products, Steve, typically what we look for is 9% of our revenue growth to come from new products and innovation. That's really what we targeted for ourselves this year and we're running close to that number again.

至於新產品方面，Steve，我們通常希望營收成長中有 9% 來自新產品與創新。這是我們今年為自己設定的目標，而目前的進度也接近這個數字。

One quarter in innovation for the year does not make. So what I'm going to give you is what we expect the year to come in at. And last year we came very close to that 9% number and typically what we look for within that is sort of a 75% line extensions, what we call refresh innovation.

一年當中的一個季度並不能代表全年創新表現。所以我接下來提供的是我們對全年結果的預期。去年我們非常接近 9% 這個數字；而在這之中，我們通常希望約 75% 來自產品線延伸，也就是我們所稱的「更新型創新」（refresh innovation）。

News drives growth in this category, then 25% we'd like it to be sort of reframe and breakthrough which is new platforms or substantial new packaging that can take the business to a whole new level. And again across the world this number varies but roughly speaking, that's what we shoot for.

在這個品類中，「新品」能帶動成長；另外 25% 我們希望是「重新定義」與「突破」型創新，也就是新平台或重大的新包裝，能把業務帶到全新的層級。同樣地，這個比例在全球各地會有所不同，但大致上這就是我們努力的方向。

And the thing to be careful is about Kickstart was a new platform but after a couple of years it becomes part of the base of the Company and then we have to rely on flavor extensions to continue to drive it. And so something that reframe or break through the first year after a couple, three years starts to go back into the base and starts getting counted in refresh.

而關於 Kickstart 需要注意的是，它一開始是新平台，但過了幾年後就會成為公司基本盤的一部分，之後我們就必須依靠口味延伸來持續推動它。因此，第一年屬於重新定義或突破的項目，過了兩三年後會回到基本盤，並開始被歸類到更新型（refresh）之中。

So really how we count innovation is really stuff that's been launched and is in the market for at least two years. And we look at the performance of that business on a rolling basis. So right now we're running at about 9% and it's 75/25 refresh versus reframe and breakthrough.

所以我們計算創新的方式，基本上是看那些已上市、且在市場上至少兩年的產品。我們以滾動方式檢視該業務的表現。因此目前我們大約是 9%，且更新型（refresh）對比重新定義與突破（reframe and breakthrough）的比例是 75/25。

Ali Dibadj, Bernstein.

Ali Dibadj，Bernstein。

Hey guys, so three quick things if I may. One is if you could just tell us about the impact of the deconsolidation of Venezuela on your organic top-line growth and maybe even on your margins if any? So as you were pulling it out what was the impact on the organics?

各位好，我想快速問三點。第一，能否談談將委內瑞拉去合併（deconsolidation）對你們有機營收成長（organic top-line growth）的影響，若有的話也包括對毛利率的影響？也就是在把它剔除時，對有機成長的影響是什麼？

Two is if you could give us some more, particularly for investors who remain concerned about price irrationality coming back in the U.S., clearly it's just a little bit of Nielsen data one quarter of what you said rounded down. But can you give us more to those investors about why you think it needs to continue to being price rational in the North American market? I field those questions all day, so I'd love to hear it from you.

第二，能否再多提供一些資訊，特別是對於仍擔心美國市場價格非理性（price irrationality）會再度出現的投資人？顯然目前只是尼爾森（Nielsen）數據的一點點訊號，而且只有一個季度、你們的說法也偏保守。但你們能否對這些投資人多說一些，為什麼你們認為北美市場必須持續維持理性的定價？我整天都在被問這些問題，所以很希望聽聽你們的看法。

And then third is just as Tingyi is a jumping off point if you can characterize the problems there that you described earlier, how much of it was kind of macro stock market broad issues versus kind of the PepsiCo Tingyi partnership, that 3P, third-party type partnership, and if that means anything differently in the way you guys view the way you want to distribute on a global basis with third parties? And I think specifically, for example, about Brazil, beverages woes historically and ABI/SAB obviously coming together but just broadly as well. Thank you for those.

第三，以 Tingyi 作為切入點，你能否描述你先前提到的那邊的問題？其中有多少是總體面、股市等廣泛因素造成的，又有多少是百事與 Tingyi 的合作夥伴關係，也就是 3P（第三方）合作模式本身的因素？這是否會影響你們對全球以第三方進行分銷的看法？我也特別想到例如巴西，飲料業務歷來的困境，以及 ABI/SAB 顯然正在整合，但也包括更廣泛的情況。謝謝。

Hugh, do you want to talk about impact on Venezuela?

Hugh，你要談談委內瑞拉的影響嗎？

Yes, happy to. Ali, revenue on Venezuela was a point, not meaningful on margins.

好的，樂意。Ali，委內瑞拉對營收的影響大約是一個百分點；對毛利率沒有顯著影響。

Let me talk about pricing. Ali, I can only talk about what we are going to do. Our belief is that it's very important that you really execute price rationally in the market because when you drop the price too much it doesn't drive that much consumption growth, volume growth.

我來談談定價。Ali，我只能談我們將會怎麼做。我們相信，在市場中以理性的方式執行定價非常重要，因為當你把價格降得太多時，並不會帶來那麼多的消費成長、銷量成長。

I think we're at a point in the market in many of our categories where you can grow the business through premiumization, real innovation but just playing a price game does not drive volume growth and actually destroys value. So that's our strategy. And that's the playbook that we're going to execute.

我認為在我們許多品類的市場上，我們已經來到一個階段：你可以透過高端化、真正的創新來帶動業務成長，但如果只是玩價格戰，並不會推動銷量成長，反而會摧毀價值。所以這就是我們的策略。這也是我們將要執行的作戰手冊。

Let me turn to Tingyi, I think I gave you a pretty complete answer when Caroline asked the question but let me just add to it. You've seen the Tingyi results, you've heard their call, you've heard all of the news that comes out of Tingyi, so I'm not going to talk about a public company that announces results on its own. I will just tell you that from my perspective or our perspective clearly the macroeconomics has played a role.

我來談談頂益（Tingyi）。我想在 Caroline 提問時我已經給了你相當完整的回答，但我再補充幾點。你已經看到頂益的業績、聽過他們的電話會議，也聽到所有關於頂益的新聞，所以我不會去談一家自行公布業績的上市公司。我只想說，就我或我們的角度來看，宏觀經濟顯然扮演了一定角色。

I think Tingyi itself is trying to retool itself to become more efficient. And whenever you are going to do a transformation retooling there is going to be disruption in the business. And finally, you know the PepsiCo Tingyi partnership started off very well and I think it will come right back to where it was intended to be.

我認為頂益本身也正試圖重新調整，以提升效率。而每當你要進行轉型與重新調整時，業務一定會出現擾動。最後你知道，百事公司與頂益的合作夥伴關係一開始非常順利，我認為它會回到原本預期的狀態。

The transition where we consolidate distribution systems, where we sort out products between PepsiCo-oriented distribution system or premium products-oriented distribution system versus a value-oriented product distribution system, that transition is taking a little bit longer and it's a little bit more painful. And I wish it could happen faster but you know, that's the reality of what we're living with because a slowdown in the macros has not helped either.

在過渡期中，我們整併配送系統，並釐清產品應由以百事公司為導向的配送系統或以高端產品為導向的配送系統來配送，還是由以價值型產品為導向的配送系統來配送；這個轉換花的時間稍微久一些，也更痛苦一些。我希望它能更快發生，但你知道，這就是我們正在面對的現實，因為宏觀環境放緩也沒有幫上忙。

So from a Tingyi perspective as I said we remain optimistic. And we just need to power through this and provide the help in terms of capabilities and knowledge transfer to them so they can get through this difficult period.

所以就頂益而言，如我所說，我們仍然保持樂觀。我們只需要撐過這段時間，並在能力與知識移轉方面提供協助，讓他們能度過這個艱難時期。

And I don't think Tingyi has indicated any problems on a global basis. I'll tell you something, we have hundreds of partners globally in the beverage business. At any point, some percentage of those partners go through issues.

而且我不認為頂益曾指出在全球層面有任何問題。我告訴你一件事：我們在飲料業務上全球有數百個合作夥伴。在任何時點，其中一定比例的合作夥伴都會遇到一些狀況。

That's the same for any company in this beverage business. And the strength of the franchise company is how do you help that bottling entity recover from its issues given that we operate [co-bos] and we have a reservoir of capabilities. That's really what we're doing, taking people from our established co-bos, sending them into these bottler businesses to help them improve their performance. So I don't see any major red flags here, Ali.

這對這個飲料產業中的任何公司都一樣。而特許經營公司的強項在於：在我們營運[co-bos]、並擁有一個能力儲備庫的前提下，如何協助該裝瓶實體從問題中恢復。這正是我們在做的事：從我們成熟的 co-bos 調派人員，派到這些裝瓶商業務中，協助他們改善績效。所以我看不出這裡有任何重大紅旗，Ali。

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

Robert Ottenstein，Evercore ISI。

Great, thank you very much. Good morning. A couple of questions.

很好，非常感謝。早安。有幾個問題。

You noted in most of the segments that you were starting to face now some operating cost inflation. Is that primarily wage inflation? Can you give us any more details on that, please?

你提到在多數事業部門，你們現在開始面臨一些營運成本通膨。那主要是薪資通膨嗎？能否請你提供更多細節？

Yes, the biggest factor in that is wage inflation. Recall when we've talked about in the past we have about $28 billion in operating expense. Roughly half of that is labor and outside the U.S. labor is obviously inflationary, it's just based on local inflation rates.

是的，其中最大的因素是薪資通膨。回想我們過去談過，我們大約有280億美元的營運費用。其中約一半是勞動成本，而在美國以外，勞動成本顯然具有通膨性，基本上取決於當地通膨率。

Kevin Grundy, Jefferies.

Kevin Grundy，Jefferies。

Good morning. Question for Hugh on North American profitability and margins there and your line of sight for improvement.

早安。想請 Hugh 談談北美的獲利能力與利潤率，以及你對改善的可見度。

So this is kind of a broader question, Hugh, but I was hoping you could briefly touch on what's the margin ambition in Frito? Can that be a 35% operating margin business over time? Quaker it would seem like there's a significant opportunity there now without the Mueller JV weighing on it.

這算是比較廣泛的問題，Hugh，但我希望你能簡要談談 Frito 的利潤率目標。長期來看，它能成為營業利益率35%的業務嗎？至於桂格（Quaker），看起來在不再受 Mueller 合資企業拖累之後，現在有相當大的機會。

Can that return to a 30% operating margin business? And that would seem like that could happen over a much quicker period of time without that weighing it down?

它能回到營業利益率30%的業務嗎？而且在沒有那個拖累之後，似乎可以在更短時間內達成？

And if you could briefly touch on NAB as well, which is a bit more difficult given the vertical integration there with bottler ownership. So any commentary there, and I'm sorry that's a bit broad-based, would be helpful. Thank you.

另外也請你簡要談談 NAB，因為那邊有裝瓶商持股所帶來的垂直整合，會比較困難一些。所以若能提供任何評論——抱歉問題有點廣——都會很有幫助。謝謝。

Yes, happy to do that. As you all know we don't give division-specific margin guidance. It just gets into a level of granularity and detail that's probably more confusing than helpful.

好的，很樂意。各位都知道，我們不提供分部別的利潤率指引。那會進入過於細碎的層級與細節，可能更令人困惑而非有幫助。

That said, I would broadly say all of our North American businesses have the potential to continue to see improved margins. How are they going to do that?

話雖如此，我大致上會說，我們所有北美業務都有潛力持續看到利潤率改善。他們要怎麼做到？

Number one, it will be through our broad-based supply chain productivity programs. We continue to take cost out. Particularly moving from the plant to the store, we're getting more and more efficient at operating that distribution network.

第一，將透過我們廣泛推動的供應鏈生產力計畫。我們持續降低成本。特別是在從工廠到門店這一段，我們在營運該配送網路方面變得越來越有效率。

Number two, Smart Spending continues to present an opportunity to enhance margins. And again that occurs across all of our businesses.

第二，Smart Spending 持續帶來提升利潤率的機會。同樣地，這發生在我們所有業務之中。

And number three, as Indra pointed out earlier, we continue to see a lot of opportunities to premiumize our products. With those premium products come good price points. And once the products are in the marketplace and the A&M has normalized on those new products, you can expect to see those earned premium margins over time.

第三，如 Indra 先前指出的，我們持續看到許多產品高端化的機會。這些高端產品帶來良好的定價點。而一旦產品進入市場，且在這些新產品上的 A&M（廣告與行銷）回到常態後，你可以預期隨時間推進，這些高端產品所賺取的溢價利潤率會逐步體現。

So again I don't want to get into specific division level margin guidance. But I do believe that all of our North American businesses will continue to see margin improvement over time.

所以再次強調，我不想進入特定分部層級的利潤率指引。但我確實相信，我們所有北美業務都將隨時間推進持續看到利潤率改善。

So with that, thank you all for your questions. And in closing let me just say we're off to a good start. We are confident that we have the right plans in place and we will continue to execute to the best of our abilities.

那麼，感謝各位的提問。最後我想說，我們開局良好。我們有信心已制定正確的計畫，並將持續盡我們所能去執行。

We look forward to updating you on our progress as the year advances. Have a great day. Thank you.

隨著年度推進，我們期待向各位更新我們的進展。祝各位有美好的一天。謝謝。

Thank you. That does conclude PepsiCo's first-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。百事公司2016年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。