百事 (PEP) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PepsiCo's fourth-quarter 2015 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加百事公司（PepsiCo）2015 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Jamie Caulfield, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Caulfield you may begin.

今天的電話會議將被錄音，並將存檔於 www.pepsico.com。現在我很榮幸介紹投資人關係資深副總裁 Jamie Caulfield 先生。Caulfield 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Joining me on the call today are Indra Nooyi, PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, and Hugh Johnston, PepsiCo's Vice Chairman and CFO. We'll lead off with prepared comments and then we'll turn to Q&A. And recognizing it's a busy earnings day we'll end the call at about 8:45.

謝謝。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有百事公司董事長兼執行長 Indra Nooyi，以及百事公司副董事長兼財務長 Hugh Johnston。我們將先進行事先準備的發言，接著進入問答。考量今天是繁忙的財報日，我們將在約 8:45 結束本次電話會議。

As we begin the call it's important to note the following. We will make forward-looking statements on this call. Any forward-looking statement inherently involves risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the current predictions and expectations. Information on such risks can be found in today's Earnings Release and our most recent Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，請注意以下事項。我們將在本次電話會議中發表前瞻性陳述。任何前瞻性陳述本質上都涉及風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果與目前的預測與預期存在重大差異。有關此類風險的資訊可見於今日的財報新聞稿，以及我們最近一期的 Form 10-K 與其後向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。

In addition, we will discuss results using non-GAAP measures. You can find GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations on our website in the investor section under the events and presentations tab. As we discuss today's results keep in mind that our fourth-quarter comprises the 16 weeks ended December 26 for our North American operations, and the months of September through December for most of our operations outside of North America.

此外，我們將使用非 GAAP 指標討論業績。您可在我們網站投資人專區的「活動與簡報」分頁中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調節表。在討論今日結果時，請記得我們的第四季對北美業務而言為截至 12 月 26 日的 16 週；而對北美以外的大多數業務而言，則涵蓋 9 月至 12 月。

And now it's my pleasure to introduce Indra Nooyi.

現在我很榮幸介紹 Indra Nooyi。

Thank you, Jamie. And good morning, everyone. If I sound funny this morning it's because I'm nursing a very bad cold.

謝謝你，Jamie。各位早安。如果我今天早上聽起來有點怪，是因為我正在忍受一場很嚴重的感冒。

I'm pleased to announce that PepsiCo delivered for shareholders a terrific year in 2015 with strong organic revenue growth and 10% core constant currency EPS growth. We simultaneously enhance our competitiveness and prospects for future growth, while meeting or exceeding each of the 2015 financial goals that we shared with you this time last year.

我很高興宣布，百事公司在 2015 年為股東交出了一個非常出色的年度成績，具備強勁的有機營收成長，以及 10% 的核心固定匯率每股盈餘（EPS）成長。我們同時提升競爭力與未來成長前景，並達成或超越我們在去年此時與各位分享的 2015 年各項財務目標。

From a strategic perspective, we held or gained market share across most of our key markets. We built the strength of our brands, evidenced by both our strong organic top-line growth and 40 basis point increase in A&M as a percent of sales. We continue to extend our innovation advantage, growing new platforms such as Mountain Dew Kickstart, Stacy's pita snacks, and Inner Smile dairy drinks in China, and simultaneously invested for the future by increasing our R&D spending.

從策略角度來看，我們在大多數關鍵市場維持或提升了市占率。我們強化了品牌實力，這可由強勁的有機營收成長，以及 A&M（廣告與行銷）占銷售額比重提升 40 個基點所證明。我們持續擴大創新優勢，推動如 Mountain Dew Kickstart、Stacy's 皮塔餅乾零食，以及中國的 Inner Smile 乳飲等新平台成長，同時透過提高研發支出為未來投資。

We continue to win in food service by adding Disney in China, Subway across several countries, and renewing Yum! in China, due primarily to our broad product portfolio and superior customer service. And we enhanced our offerings to our food service partners in 2015 through the establishment of exciting new platforms like Stubborn Soda, Mountain Dew Black Label and Hello Goodness Vending.

我們持續在餐飲服務通路取勝，新增了中國的迪士尼（Disney）、多個國家的 Subway，並在中國續約 Yum!這主要歸功於我們廣泛的產品組合與卓越的客戶服務。此外，2015 年我們透過建立令人振奮的新平台，如 Stubborn Soda、Mountain Dew Black Label 與 Hello Goodness 自動販賣機，強化了對餐飲服務合作夥伴的產品供應。

We added major new marketing properties with the NBA and the UEFA Champions League. And we expect to derive value from them through our rapidly expanding global marketing and design capabilities. And we delivered a record-setting year for productivity, as our outstanding operating teams leveraged our global supply chain center of excellence to execute best practices and new ideas with great precision across all of businesses.

我們新增了 NBA 與 UEFA 歐洲冠軍聯賽等重要的新行銷資產。我們預期將透過快速擴張的全球行銷與設計能力，從中創造價值。同時，我們也交出創紀錄的生產力表現；我們優秀的營運團隊運用全球供應鏈卓越中心，在所有業務中以高度精準執行最佳實務與新構想。

While delivering strong strategic results we delivered financially. We targeted mid single-digit organic revenue growth and delivered 5% growth. We targeted core operating margin expansion and delivered a 30 basis points improvement.

在交出強勁策略成果的同時，我們也在財務面交出成績。我們設定的目標是有機營收中個位數成長，實際達成 5% 成長。我們設定核心營業利益率擴張目標，並實現提升 30 個基點。

We delivered 10% core constant currency EPS growth against our initial target of 7%, and converted 120% of core net income to free cash flow excluding certain items through strong capital management. This strong cash generation enabled us to provide attractive cash returns to our shareholders, a total of $9 billion in 2015. And our core net return on invested capital stands at 19.6% at the end of 2015, up 430 basis points over the past three years.

我們在最初目標為 7% 的情況下，達成 10% 的核心固定匯率 EPS 成長，並透過強勁的資本管理，將核心淨利（排除特定項目）之 120% 轉化為自由現金流。強勁的現金創造能力使我們得以向股東提供具吸引力的現金回饋，2015 年合計達 90 億美元。截至 2015 年底，我們的核心投入資本報酬率（ROIC）為 19.6%，較過去三年提升 430 個基點。

I'm particularly pleased to note that we achieved these results in the face of a challenging macro external environment. Over my several decades in business I have never seen this combination of sustained headwinds across most economies, combined with high volatility across global financial markets. From our meetings and observations traveling around the world, I've noted slow economic growth or recession across all but the US and a few other countries as a combination of geopolitics and oil have created many challenging economic outcomes.

我特別高興指出，我們是在充滿挑戰的總體外部環境下達成這些成果。在我數十年的商業生涯中，我從未見過如此組合：多數經濟體面臨持續逆風，同時全球金融市場高度波動。從我們在全球各地出差的會議與觀察來看，除美國及少數其他國家外，多數地區皆呈現經濟成長緩慢或陷入衰退；地緣政治與油價因素共同造成許多具挑戰性的經濟結果。

The slower economic growth has resulted in lower demand for commodities, which has put extreme pressure on previously booming economies like Russia, Canada and Brazil, just to name a few. In order to address slowing demand, central banks have few tools to kick start their economy as these tools have largely been fully exploited over the past several years. In addition, increased government regulation, including increased taxation, labeling requirements, and limitations on social programs are placing further pressure on consumer demand.

較慢的經濟成長導致大宗商品需求下降，對先前蓬勃的經濟體如俄羅斯、加拿大與巴西等造成極大壓力，僅舉數例。為了因應需求放緩，各國央行可用來刺激經濟的工具不多，因為這些工具在過去幾年多已被大幅運用。此外，政府監管增加（包括提高稅負、標示要求，以及對社會計畫的限制）也進一步壓抑消費需求。

These macro issues have created three broad risks for the consumer and for CPG companies. First, the widespread economic malaise has created a strong US dollar, which has the effect of creating local inflation in international markets and threatens to derail the US economic recovery. Second, volatile financial markets may cause a pullback in corporate investment and consumer spending. And, finally, the continued weak economic performance is causing widespread political and social turmoil across the globe, which may create even greater economic harm.

這些總體議題為消費者與民生消費品（CPG）公司帶來三大廣泛風險。第一，普遍的經濟低迷推升美元走強，進而在國際市場造成當地通膨，並可能威脅美國經濟復甦。第二，金融市場的波動可能導致企業投資與消費支出縮手。最後，持續疲弱的經濟表現正在全球引發廣泛的政治與社會動盪，可能造成更大的經濟傷害。

In the face of these challenges, our geographic sectors managed very well during 2015, exploiting the more positive environments for superior results, while carefully navigating weak environments to balance tight cost management with judicious investment to surgically capture growth. In a relatively positive macro environment, our performance in North America was particularly strong with both Frito-Lay North America and North American beverages turning in very good operating and financial performances. Each posted 3% organic revenue growth and 7% core constant currency operating profit growth for the year.

面對這些挑戰，我們各地理事業部在 2015 年管理得非常出色：在較正向的環境中把握機會以取得更佳成果；在疲弱環境中則謹慎因應，在嚴格成本管理與審慎投資之間取得平衡，以精準捕捉成長。在相對正向的總體環境下，我們北美業務表現尤其強勁，Frito-Lay 北美與北美飲料皆交出非常良好的營運與財務表現。兩者全年皆達成 3% 的有機營收成長，以及 7% 的核心固定匯率營業利益成長。

Frito-Lay North America once again delivered consistent results, while continuing to transform its package architecture in potato chips and its go-to-market system through further expansion of the GES program. North American beverages had its best financial performance in recent memory, benefiting from the continuation of improved industry pricing dynamics, a broad product portfolio and continued positive innovation performance. Quaker Foods North America began a turnaround in 2015, delivering positive organic revenue results for the first time in several years, and gaining value share across the breakfast categories of hot and ready-to-eat cereal and Aunt Jemima syrup and mix.

Frito-Lay 北美再次交出穩健一致的成果，同時持續改造其洋芋片的包裝架構，並透過進一步擴大 GES 計畫，持續轉型其市場通路系統。北美飲料創下近年來最佳財務表現，受惠於產業定價動態持續改善、廣泛的產品組合，以及持續正向的創新表現。Quaker Foods 北美在 2015 年開始扭轉局面，數年來首次實現有機營收正成長，並在熱食與即食早餐穀物，以及 Aunt Jemima 糖漿與粉漿等早餐品類中提升價值市占。

I'm pleased to report that PepsiCo once again was the single largest contributor to US retail food and beverage growth for our customers. For the full year, we provided more growth in US retail sales than the next 15 largest food and beverage manufacturers combined. And it's this success that uniquely positions us as our customers' go-to partner to drive growth.

我很高興報告，百事公司再次成為客戶在美國零售食品與飲料成長中的單一最大貢獻者。就全年而言，我們為美國零售銷售帶來的成長，超過接下來 15 家最大食品與飲料製造商的總和。正是這樣的成功，使我們在推動成長方面，獨特地成為客戶首選的合作夥伴。

When we look beyond North America our international divisions clearly dealt with the lion's share of the macro challenges that I mentioned earlier. And yet, despite these challenges, we were able to grow organic revenue 8% and core constant currency operating profit 6% for the year by executing effective pricing strategies, launching exciting innovative products, localizing sourcing to address FX transaction headwinds, and driving productivity that provided investment funding that will propel future growth. So, overall a very good performance for the year and we believe we are well positioned as we enter 2016.

當我們把視野放到北美以外時，我們的國際事業部門顯然承擔了我先前提到之宏觀挑戰中的大部分壓力。然而，儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍透過執行有效的定價策略、推出令人振奮的創新產品、在地化採購以因應外匯交易逆風，以及推動生產力以提供投資資金、帶動未來成長，使全年有機營收成長8%，核心固定匯率營業利益成長6%。因此，整體而言今年表現非常出色，我們相信在邁入2016年之際，我們已具備良好定位。

Now, you may recall that we focused on one of our big performance driving initiatives on each of the last three earnings calls. On our prior calls we covered innovation supported by sensible brand management, then we talked about flawless execution, and last time we talked about self-sustaining productivity. Today I want to focus on the fourth of these initiatives, cash generation and prudent capital allocation.

各位或許記得，在過去三次財報電話會議中，我們每次都聚焦於一項重大的績效驅動倡議。在先前的會議中，我們談到以合理的品牌管理支持創新，接著談到零瑕疵執行，上一次則談到自我永續的生產力。今天我想聚焦於第四項倡議：現金創造與審慎的資本配置。

A substantial portion of our earnings converts to free cash flow and we generate a lot of cash. In fact, over the past three years we converted more than 100% of our core earnings to free cash flow, and we generated more than $24 billion in free cash flow excluding certain items, including $8 billion generated in 2015 alone. More broadly, we are highly disciplined in how we allocate this cash, with a particular focus on returning cash to shareholders.

我們相當大一部分的盈餘可轉化為自由現金流，因此我們能產生大量現金。事實上，過去三年我們將超過100%的核心盈餘轉換為自由現金流；在排除特定項目後，我們創造了超過240億美元的自由現金流，其中僅2015年就產生了80億美元。更廣泛而言，我們在如何配置這些現金方面高度自律，特別著重於將現金回饋給股東。

Our first capital allocation priority is to invest in the business, not only in the form of CapEx and working capital, but also within the P&L in A&M, R&D, and marketplace investment in routes and racks. In fact, since 2011 we've increased A&M as a percent of sales by 110 basis points, and R&D spending is up 40%.

我們資本配置的第一優先事項是投資於業務，不僅包括資本支出與營運資金，也包括損益表中的廣告與行銷（A&M）、研發（R&D），以及在通路與陳列架（routes and racks）上的市場投資。事實上，自2011年以來，我們的A&M占銷售額比重提高了110個基點，而研發支出增加了40%。

We have rigorous capital planning and review processes. Our CapEx investments have very attractive returns on investment. And we continually find ways to drive returns even higher by driving greater fixed asset utilization and by reducing the cost of adding capacity.

我們有嚴謹的資本規劃與審查流程。我們的資本支出投資具有非常具吸引力的投資報酬。我們也持續透過提高固定資產使用率，以及降低擴增產能的成本，來進一步提升報酬。

Over the past four years we have reduced CapEx as percentage of sales to 4.4% on a rolling four-quarter basis, which is an improvement of 60 basis points. On a revenue base of $63 billion, this equates to an annual cash savings of approximately $380 million.

過去四年，我們以滾動四季為基礎，將資本支出占銷售額比重降至4.4%，改善了60個基點。以630億美元的營收規模計算，這相當於每年約3.8億美元的現金節省。

Similarly, our efforts to improve our working capital have yielded positive results. Over the past three years, we have improved our working capital cash conversion cycle by more than 30 days, which contributed $2.5 billion to cash flow improvement. So both our CapEx and working capital productivity have been significant contributors to our very favorable free cash flow performance.

同樣地，我們改善營運資金的努力也帶來了正面成果。過去三年，我們將營運資金現金轉換週期改善了30多天，為現金流改善貢獻了25億美元。因此，我們在資本支出與營運資金的生產力，都是我們自由現金流表現極為亮眼的重要貢獻因素。

Our second priority is to pay dividends to our shareholders. We've raised our dividend for 44 consecutive years, effective with the June 2016 payment, and this is through both consistent earnings growth and by raising our payout ratio over time. With this morning's announced dividend increase, we expect to pay out approximately 60% of our core 2015 earnings, and our dividend yield at yesterday's closing stock price is an attractive 3%, and our 10-year compound annual growth in dividend per share is 10%. Continuity of dividends and growth in annual dividend per share are a point of great pride for PepsiCo, and we view them as a vitally important element to the total shareholder return equation.

我們的第二優先事項是向股東支付股利。截至2016年6月的股利發放，我們已連續44年提高股利，這是透過穩健的盈餘成長，以及隨時間提高配息率共同達成的。隨著今早宣布的股利調升，我們預期將配發約相當於2015年核心盈餘的60%；以昨日收盤股價計算，我們的股利殖利率具吸引力，約為3%，而每股股利在過去10年的年複合成長率為10%。股利的延續性與每股年度股利的成長，是百事公司引以為傲的一點；我們也將其視為總股東報酬方程式中至關重要的要素。

Our third priority is to strengthen our market positions and create value through responsible tuck-in acquisitions, generally less than $500 million a year in total which equates to a relatively small percentage of annual free cash flow. We've built a lot of capability in evaluating and integrating tuck-in acquisitions and we have very disciplined strategic and financial guidelines to ensure that they're value creating. Our acquisition evaluation is comprehensive and includes assessment of geographic considerations, category growth and attractiveness, scalability, competitive dynamics, people and business systems, integration, cultural fit and transaction complexity.

我們的第三優先事項是透過負責任的補強型併購（tuck-in acquisitions）來強化市場地位並創造價值；一般而言，全年總額低於5億美元，約占年度自由現金流的相對小比例。我們在評估與整合補強型併購方面建立了大量能力，並具備非常自律的策略與財務準則，以確保其能創造價值。我們的併購評估相當全面，包含對地理因素、品類成長與吸引力、可擴展性、競爭態勢、人員與業務系統、整合、文化契合度以及交易複雜度的評估。

And our fourth capital allocation priority is to return residual cash to our shareholders through share repurchases and we plan to do so within the confines of maintaining a capital structure that provides us ready access to the debt capital markets at attractive rates. Over the past 3 and 10 years, we've returned more than $13 billion and $35 billion, respectively, to shareholders in the form of share repurchases.

我們的第四項資本配置優先事項，是在維持能以具吸引力利率便捷進入債務資本市場之資本結構的前提下，透過庫藏股買回將剩餘現金回饋給股東。在過去3年與10年期間，我們分別以股票回購的形式向股東回饋了超過130億美元與350億美元。

Next, our focus on capital allocation discipline has yielded impressive results. We returned more than $65 billion to shareholders over the past 10 years in combined dividends and share repurchases.

接下來，我們對資本配置紀律的重視帶來了令人印象深刻的成果。過去10年，我們透過股利與股票回購合計向股東回饋了超過650億美元。

Before Hugh covers guidance in detail I'll just make a few broader points about the landscape going forward. We expect a continuation of the many macro challenges we face this year -- the strong US dollar, sluggish growth or recession in most developing and emerging markets, political and social unrest in a number of regions, and increased government regulation. As I mentioned, while the US economy is experiencing a recovery, it's delicate, and there is a risk that it will not sustain itself if the rest of the globe continues to experience such massive pressures.

在Hugh詳細說明財測指引之前，我先就未來的整體環境提出幾點更宏觀的看法。我們預期今年將延續我們所面臨的多項宏觀挑戰——強勢美元、多數開發中與新興市場的成長遲緩或衰退、若干地區的政治與社會動盪，以及政府監管的增加。如我所提到，雖然美國經濟正在復甦，但仍相當脆弱；若全球其他地區持續承受如此巨大的壓力，復甦可能無法自我維持，存在風險。

But even in the face of this rather challenging global landscape, I'm optimistic about PepsiCo's future. We have made a prudent appraisal of those factors outside of our control and we're controlling those factors we can control.

但即便面對這樣具挑戰性的全球局勢，我對百事公司的未來仍抱持樂觀。我們已對那些非我們所能控制的因素做出審慎評估，同時也在掌控我們能掌控的因素。

Our teams around the globe are executing well. Our innovation pipeline is full and promising. And the sustained investments we've made in strengthening marketing and developing cutting-edge capabilities will serve us well as we move through the year.

我們遍布全球的團隊執行表現良好。我們的創新產品管線充實且前景可期。而我們持續投入以強化行銷並發展尖端能力，將在我們推進今年各項工作時發揮助益。

We believe we have the plans in place for 2016 to continue to deliver strong financial results. And we have something that's equally important as the right plans. We have the right people. The fact that we've achieved so much in what has been a protracted and extremely challenging and volatile environment is a testament to the strength and experience of our management team.

我們相信已為2016年制定到位的計畫，以持續交出強勁的財務成果。而且我們也具備與正確計畫同等重要的要素。我們有對的人才。我們能在一個漫長、極具挑戰且波動劇烈的環境中達成如此多成果，證明了我們管理團隊的實力與經驗。

We benefit greatly from the senior management team distinguished by continuity, experience and skill. Our sector heads and CFO, Al, Tom, Laxman, Ramon, Sanjeev and Hugh have 140 years of combined PepsiCo experience across multiple categories, markets and functions.

我們從以延續性、經驗與能力見長的高階管理團隊中獲益良多。我們的事業部門主管與財務長（CFO）Al、Tom、Laxman、Ramon、Sanjeev以及Hugh，在多個品類、市場與職能領域合計擁有140年的百事公司經驗。

At the same time, we're developing and advancing PepsiCo's next generation of leadership. The appointments over just the past 24 months of Laxman and Ramon to their respective sector leadership roles, and the appointments of Brian Newman to run global operations and Eugene Willemsen to run our global category groups, are a few key examples of such next-generation leaders who have gained tremendous experience already and have much runway ahead of them at PepsiCo.

同時，我們也在培育並推進百事公司下一代的領導人才。僅在過去24個月內，任命Laxman與Ramon擔任各自事業部門的領導職務，以及任命Brian Newman負責全球營運、Eugene Willemsen負責全球品類事業群，都是幾個關鍵例子；這些下一代領導者已累積了豐富經驗，並在百事公司仍有很長的發展空間。

With these comments, let me turn the call over to Hugh. Hugh?

以上說明後，讓我把電話會議交給Hugh。Hugh？

Great. And good morning, everyone. Moving on to our outlook for 2016, as we set out in the release we expect organic revenue growth of approximately 4%, with the top line continuing to benefit from the investments we've made in our brands and innovation, as well as our revenue management capabilities, driving organic revenue growth and positive net price realization. And taking our core 2015 EPS of $4.57 and applying our guidance and current foreign exchange market consensus rates implies 2016 core EPS of approximately $4.66.

很好。各位早安。接著談我們對2016年的展望，如同我們在新聞稿中所述，我們預期有機營收成長約4%；營收端將持續受惠於我們在品牌與創新上的投資，以及我們的營收管理能力，推動有機營收成長並帶來正向的淨價格實現。以2015年核心每股盈餘（EPS）4.57美元為基礎，並套用我們的指引與目前外匯市場共識匯率，推算2016年核心EPS約為4.66美元。

Let me touch on the key considerations and assumptions embedded in our outlook. First, we will have a 53rd week in 2016, as we do every five or six years, which principally impacts our North American businesses given that our international businesses report on a monthly calendar. Our organic revenue growth outlook excludes the impact of this extra week. And our intention is to reinvest the benefit from the extra week in growth and productivity initiatives.

讓我談談我們展望中所包含的關鍵考量與假設。第一，2016 年我們將有第 53 週，這種情況每五到六年會出現一次，主要影響我們的北美業務，因為我們的國際業務是按月曆月份報告。我們的有機營收成長展望不包含這額外一週的影響。而我們的意圖是把這額外一週帶來的效益再投資於成長與生產力計畫。

Second, we will be lapping the deconsolidation of our Venezuela business which occurred at the end of Q3 in 2015. Venezuela contributed approximately $0.10 per share to core earnings in the first three quarters of 2015.

第二，我們將面臨 2015 年第三季末委內瑞拉業務去合併（deconsolidation）的比較基期效應。委內瑞拉在 2015 年前三季對核心每股盈餘（core earnings）貢獻約每股 0.10 美元。

And, third, foreign exchange translation will continue to be a headwind with most of our key international markets' currencies expected to decline versus the US dollar in 2016. Based on current foreign exchange market consensus rates, this is expected to be a 4 point drag on both net revenue and core EPS.

第三，外匯換算將持續成為逆風，預期 2016 年我們多數主要國際市場的貨幣將相對美元走貶。依目前外匯市場共識匯率，預期這將使淨營收與核心每股盈餘（core EPS）各受到 4 個百分點的拖累。

Additionally, to the positive, we expect to generate approximately $1 billion of productivity savings in 2016, which is in line with our overall objective of achieving $5 billion of productivity over the five years through 2019. We anticipate continued reduction in corporate expenses and we expect our share count to benefit from a targeted $3 billion in share repurchases.

另外，在正面因素方面，我們預期 2016 年可產生約 10 億美元的生產力節省，這與我們整體目標一致：在截至 2019 年的五年期間累計達成 50 億美元的生產力提升。我們預期公司費用將持續下降，且我們的流通股數將受惠於目標 30 億美元的庫藏股回購。

In terms of headwinds, we anticipate continued volatile macros, especially in the developing and emerging markets, and commodity inflation is deflationary in the low single digits excluding foreign exchange and low single-digit inflationary including the impact of transaction-related foreign exchange in many of the markets whose currencies have and are expected to continue to weaken against the US dollar. Also keep in mind that because of our forward buying approach, our commodity costs tend to lag what you see in the spot markets.

就逆風而言，我們預期總體環境仍將持續波動，尤其是在開發中與新興市場；此外，商品通膨（不含外匯）呈現低個位數的通縮，但若納入交易相關外匯影響，則在許多貨幣已經且預期將持續相對美元走弱的市場中，將呈現低個位數的通膨。也請記住，由於我們採取遠期採購策略，我們的商品成本通常會落後於您在現貨市場看到的變化。

As you model out the quarters, we ask you to consider the following. We deconsolidated our Venezuela operations at the end of Q3 in 2015 so our EPS comparisons will be impacted by lapping the elimination of earnings from Venezuela during the first three quarters of 2016. The AMENA division will face a difficult operating profit comparison during Q1 2016 as the business lapse a gain related to refranchising a portion of India bottling operations, and the benefit of the 53rd week will fall in the fourth quarter of the year while our reinvestment of the benefit of the 53rd week will be made throughout the year.

在您建立各季度模型時，我們請您考量以下事項。我們在 2015 年第三季末對委內瑞拉業務去合併，因此 2016 年前三季的每股盈餘比較將受到「不再計入委內瑞拉獲利」的基期效應影響。AMENA 事業部在 2016 年第一季將面臨較艱難的營業利益比較，因為該業務將不再有與印度部分裝瓶業務重新特許經營（refranchising）相關的處分利益；此外，第 53 週的效益將落在第四季，而我們對第 53 週效益的再投資將分散於全年進行。

We will maintain a high level of discipline toward capital allocation, with the vast majority of free cash flow after capital spending being returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. We expect to return $4 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and we expect to return an additional $3 billion in cash to shareholders through share repurchases.

我們將在資本配置上維持高度紀律，資本支出後的絕大部分自由現金流將以股利與回購的形式回饋股東。我們預期將透過股利向股東返還 40 億美元現金，並預期再透過股票回購向股東額外返還 30 億美元現金。

So, combined, we expect these actions will result in cash returns to shareholders of $7 billion in 2016. Capital allocation is a top priority for our management and our Board, and we trust these actions will again be seen by shareholders as tangible evidence of this commitment.

因此，合計而言，我們預期這些行動將使 2016 年對股東的現金回饋達 70 億美元。資本配置是管理團隊與董事會的首要重點，我們相信股東將再次把這些行動視為我們承諾的具體證明。

With that, we are ready to take the first question.

接下來，我們準備回答第一個問題。

Thanks, Hugh.

謝謝你，Hugh。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Our first question comes from the line of Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Dara Mohsenian。

Hey, good morning. First, can you give us your organic sales growth in emerging markets in Q4? And as we look out to 2016, Indra, it sounded like you were very cautious on the macro environment, so any impact in terms of macros on your business in emerging markets in Q4, if you could provide some more detail there. And, also, so far what you're seeing in Q1 given we're well into the quarter. And any thoughts just in general on the level of risk and your visibility on the 4% organic sales growth guidance. And then also on the macro side, can you just review trends in gas convenience in the US in both snacks and beverages and your thoughts on consumer spending in 2016?

嗨，早安。首先，你們能否提供第四季在新興市場的有機銷售成長？另外，展望 2016 年，Indra，聽起來你對總體環境非常謹慎；因此若第四季新興市場的總體因素對你們業務有任何影響，能否再多提供一些細節？以及，第一季目前你們看到的情況（因為我們已經進入本季一段時間）。也請談談整體而言風險程度，以及你們對 4% 有機銷售成長指引的能見度。最後在總體面方面，你能否回顧美國加油站便利通路在零食與飲料的趨勢，以及你對 2016 年消費支出的看法？

Dara, this is Hugh. To answer your question on developing and emerging markets, the growth rate would have been about 6% for the quarter.

Dara，我是 Hugh。回答你關於開發中與新興市場的問題，該季度的成長率約為 6%。

Dara, let me talk about the world and what we're seeing around the world. And it's not just emerging markets. As we travel around the world -- let me just take a quick walk around the world. As we look at Latin America, Brazil, Argentina, if you look at Colombia, between a combination of the economic issues in the country and the currency devaluation, it's causing tremendous strain on anybody who's operating in that country, leave alone American companies who have to report in US dollars because you have both a transaction and a translation problem to deal with. Transaction because a lot of the commodities we buy are denominated in dollars. So, we have to figure out how to price that through.

Dara，我來談談全球情況以及我們在各地看到的狀況。而且不只是新興市場。當我們走訪全球——我快速帶大家繞一圈。看拉丁美洲，巴西、阿根廷，再看哥倫比亞，在該國經濟問題與貨幣貶值的雙重影響下，對任何在當地營運的企業都造成巨大壓力，更不用說必須以美元報告的美國公司，因為你同時要面對交易與換算兩個層面的問題。交易層面是因為我們購買的許多大宗商品以美元計價。因此，我們必須想辦法把這些成本反映到定價中。

If you go over to Europe, the Western European market, I would say, did show some signs of recovery but not to the level that we would like to see it. Interestingly, our businesses in East Europe are doing well with respect to the local market but, again, the currency is really taking a bite out of the profit streams that come out of that market.

如果到歐洲，西歐市場我會說確實出現一些復甦跡象，但仍未達到我們希望看到的程度。有趣的是，我們在東歐的業務就當地市場而言表現良好，但同樣地，匯率正大幅侵蝕該市場所貢獻的獲利。

I was in the Middle East about three weeks ago. The teams there are very resilient but they have to cope every day with the issues in the Middle East, whether it's countries going through attacks or the refugee crisis. It is pretty severe what's going on there. Many routes have to get off the market at times.

我大約三週前在中東。那裡的團隊非常有韌性，但他們每天都必須應對中東的各種問題，不論是一些國家遭受攻擊，或是難民危機。那裡正在發生的情況相當嚴峻。許多配送路線有時不得不暫時退出市場。

Our teams are all local so they figure out a way to operate, but it is tough. I think we're one of the few companies that keeps an operation going because our routes can come on quickly when there's a lull in the activity there. So, I would say it's difficult to watch that region going through the problems it's going through.

我們的團隊都是當地人，因此他們會想辦法維持營運，但確實很艱難。我認為我們是少數仍能維持營運的公司之一，因為當那裡的活動出現短暫平息時，我們的配送路線可以很快恢復。所以我會說，看著那個地區經歷這些問題，令人感到沉重。

And as you move further east, India's holding up. The Pacific Rim is holding up nicely -- don't see too many issues. And China going into the Chinese New Year, last year I think the market was very sluggish but this year it started off moderately okay.

再往東走，印度仍然撐得住。環太平洋地區表現穩健——沒有看到太多問題。而中國在農曆新年前，去年我認為市場非常疲弱，但今年開局算是中度偏好。

And if you ask me about how the year has started off, look, one period or one month a year does not make. But the year has started off okay. And, again, I want to be very clear. What we can control we are doing very well -- execution, productivity, innovation and our on the shelf. We're doing a very good job and that's giving us some tail winds.

至於你問我今年開局如何，坦白說，一個期間或一個月並不能代表整年。但今年開局還不錯。而且我想非常清楚地說，我們能控制的部分，我們做得非常好——執行、生產力、創新，以及我們在貨架上的呈現。我們做得非常到位，這也為我們帶來一些順風。我們做得非常好，這也為我們帶來一些順風。

What we cannot control, which is the geopolitical issues, this incredible currency turmoil, we just have to accept it for the moment. So, I'd say the teams are executing very well in the marketplace and that's why we feel cautiously optimistic on the one hand, while feeling despondent about the macros on the other hand.

我們無法控制的部分，也就是地緣政治問題、這場驚人的匯率動盪，我們目前只能先接受。所以，我會說團隊在市場上的執行非常到位，這也是為什麼一方面我們保持審慎樂觀，另一方面又對總體環境感到沮喪。

As far as the convenience store is concerned, in the past we used to say when gas prices came down there used to be a perceptible increase in convenience store traffic. Yes, we did see an increase in convenience store traffic and convenience stores were up -- what? 6% Hugh?

就便利商店而言，過去我們常說當油價下跌時，便利商店的來客數會有明顯增加。是的，我們確實看到便利商店來客數增加，而便利商店業務成長——多少來著？Hugh，6%？

About 6%, yes.

大約6%，是的。

About 6%. But I think that game has played out. Now it's going to be how much innovation you put on the shelves and how you execute. And this is where, again, our DSD systems, our power of one, and the fact that we have the right products for the convenience stores is going to stand us in great stead.

大約6%。但我認為那個效應已經發揮完了。接下來將取決於你在貨架上投入多少創新，以及你如何執行。而這正是我們的 DSD 系統、我們的「power of one」，以及我們擁有適合便利商店的正確產品，將讓我們占盡優勢的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Ali Dibadj of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Ali Dibadj。

How are you? Hopefully you'll feel better soon. I wanted to get a better sense of your 2015 to 2016 EPS bridge. If you're still actually getting this $1 billion of cost savings, you're buying back this $3 billion similar level of stock purchase, that together would be 11% or 12% EPS growth. And ex Venezuela, ex currencies, you're only saying you're going to get something like 8%. And I'm having trouble figuring out what that gap is. I it makes me feel that all else equal -- so if you're not cutting costs, you're not doing anything -- the core business is actually shrinking, which clearly can't be with a 4% top-line growth number organically for next year. So, I'm just trying to figure out the bridge, if you can, more quantitatively between 2015 and 2016 than what you've already offered, particularly on the core piece, please.

你好嗎？希望你很快會好一些。我想更清楚了解你們 2015 到 2016 年 EPS 的橋接分析。如果你們仍然能取得這 10 億美元的成本節省，同時又以類似水準回購 30 億美元股票，兩者加總應該會帶來 11% 或 12% 的 EPS 成長。但扣除委內瑞拉、扣除匯率因素後，你們只說大概能有 8%。我很難理解這中間的差距是什麼。這讓我覺得在其他條件相同下——也就是如果你們不降成本、什麼都不做——核心業務其實是在萎縮；但以你們明年有機成長 4% 的營收成長數字來看，顯然不可能。所以我只是想請你們更量化地說明 2015 到 2016 的橋接，尤其是核心部分，能否比你們目前提供的更清楚一些？

Absolutely, Ali. Let me toss this to Hugh who will give you a complete answer on this.

當然可以，Ali。我把這題交給 Hugh，他會給你完整的回答。

Sure, happy to. Good morning, Ali. If you add up the numbers, you're right, revenue growth, as we've said, is to be about 4%. Productivity will be about $1 billion benefit. Commodities, of course, are inflationary, low single digits.

好的，很樂意。早安，Ali。如果把數字加總起來，你說得沒錯，營收成長如我們所說大約是 4%。生產力提升將帶來約 10 億美元的效益。大宗商品當然是通膨性的，低個位數上漲。

The other factors built into our numbers are, number one, we will see operating expense inflation. Recall, our bucket of OpEx is about $28 billion. A little over half of that is labor and labor will inflate somewhere around 4% for the year.

我們數字中納入的其他因素是：第一，我們會看到營運費用通膨。回想一下，我們的 OpEx 費用池大約是 280 億美元。其中略高於一半是人力成本，而人力成本全年大約會通膨 4% 左右。

In addition to that, you'll see continued investments in advertising and marketing, as you have over the last couple of years. And the reason we continue to invest in that is we continue to get good returns on it; hence, the 4% to 5% revenue growth you've seen over the last couple of years.

此外，你也會看到我們持續在廣告與行銷上加大投資，就像過去幾年一樣。我們之所以持續投資，是因為我們持續獲得良好回報；因此你才會看到過去幾年 4% 到 5% 的營收成長。

You will see higher investment in research and development, as well. Same answer on that. We're continuing to see good returns on that. And then, of course, with the revenue growth that we've seen over the last couple of years, we do need to invest in manufacturing lines, we need to invest in routes, we need to invest in racks to place the products on. When you add all of those factors up, and then add into that geographic mix, which is a slight drag, you wind up with a total of 8% on earnings per share growth.

你也會看到研發投資提高。原因同上。我們持續看到良好回報。然後，當然，隨著過去幾年我們看到的營收成長，我們確實需要投資製造產線、投資配送路線、投資用來陳列產品的貨架。把所有這些因素加總，再加上地理組合（會有些微拖累），最後你會得到每股盈餘成長合計約 8%。

Your next question comes from the line of John Faucher of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 John Faucher。

Good morning, Indra. I want to talk a little bit about the longer-term outlook for the pricing environment. It makes sense, given all the inflationary pressures that we're seeing in terms of pricing in emerging markets. The question really becomes can you sustain pricing in developed markets, particularly given -- I know your raw materials are up slightly but there are some deflationary raw materials. And there seems to be some concern about downward pressure on pricing maybe in the US. As we look at the 2015 results, low single-digit volume, a little bit more pricing, do you see that changing over time? And can you continue to get the pricing in developed markets that would allow you to sustain that, let's say, 3% to 4% pricing number going forward? Thanks.

早安，Indra。我想談談定價環境的長期展望。考量到我們在新興市場看到的各種定價通膨壓力，這是合理的。真正的問題是：你們能否在已開發市場維持定價，特別是考量到——我知道你們的原物料略有上漲，但也有一些原物料呈現通縮。而且似乎有人擔心美國的定價可能面臨下行壓力。回頭看 2015 年的結果，銷量是低個位數成長，定價略高一些；你覺得這會隨時間改變嗎？你們能否在已開發市場持續取得定價，讓你們未來能維持例如 3% 到 4% 的定價幅度？謝謝。

John, that's a great question because we talk about that and worry about that all the time. I think there are two or three things to think about. One is, in categories which are not growing robustly, like carbonated soft drinks, there you should manage pricing very carefully because there's no point trying to drop the pricing because it's not going to drive additional demand. So, in that particular category, through a combination of revenue management, through a combination of intelligent price pack architecture, you just figure out how to get some pricing from the marketplace. So, let's hold that on the side.

John，這是個很好的問題，因為我們一直在討論也一直在擔心。我想有兩三件事可以思考。第一，在一些成長不強勁的品類，例如碳酸飲料，你必須非常謹慎地管理定價，因為試圖降價沒有意義，並不會帶來額外需求。所以在那個品類中，透過營收管理、透過更聰明的價格—包裝架構（price pack architecture），你要想辦法從市場取得一些定價。這點先放在一旁。

Second, the area where we really look for pricing is through innovation, because if there's one place where the consumer likes the news and is willing to pay up for it's for innovation. And we've been really ramping up our innovation machine to be able to get price realization through innovation.

第二，我們真正尋求定價的地方在於創新，因為如果有一個地方消費者喜歡新鮮事、也願意為此多付一些錢，那就是創新。而我們一直在大幅強化我們的創新引擎，以便透過創新實現價格落地（price realization）。

The third is through channel mix. If you sell more single serve, if you sell through channels where the consumer's willing to pay a little bit more, that clearly is a help. And lastly, even if you don't get the pricing in some places, we've got to take our costs down.

第三是通路組合。如果你賣更多單次飲用（single serve），如果你透過消費者願意多付一點的通路銷售，這顯然會有幫助。最後，即使有些地方拿不到定價，我們也必須把成本降下來。

So we've been looking at how to reengineer our supply chain end to end, how to work with customers to rethink our supply chain. There's a lot of work going on in our Company in terms of re-thinking our end-to-end costs to align our supply chains with customers so we can mutually take out costs and then figure out a way to pass some of it to the consumer. That's really our strategy on pricing.

所以我們一直在研究如何端到端地重新設計我們的供應鏈，如何與客戶合作重新思考我們的供應鏈。公司內部有大量工作在重新思考端到端成本，讓我們的供應鏈與客戶對齊，這樣我們可以共同去除成本，然後再想辦法把其中一部分回饋給消費者。這就是我們的定價策略。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of UBS Investment.

下一個問題來自 UBS Investment 的 Steve Powers。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. On the marketing step-up, which you obviously increased a lot this year and in the fourth quarter especially, can you talk a little bit more about where that investment is focused? Is it broad-based? Is it more food versus beverages? Domestic versus international? Any skew would be helpful.

嗨。謝謝。早安。關於行銷投入的提升，你們今年顯然增加很多，尤其是第四季；你能否多談一些這些投資聚焦在哪裡？是全面性的嗎？是食品多於飲料嗎？是國內多於國際嗎？任何偏重方向都會有幫助。

And then, more broadly, I'm just wondering if there's anything you're seeing out there that gives you more confidence on the margins in that spending. Because I'm struck now by how many CPG companies have emphasized a return to A&P investment in the last few weeks. It's just interesting against the macro backdrop, as you pointed out, is not getting easier. So, the increase that you're making, is it PepsiCo specific against proactive opportunities? Is it against things that may be deceptively encouraging for the broader industry? Or is any of your increase simply driven by a need to keep pace and maintain share of voice versus peers that are also stepping up their investments? Any clarity there would be helpful.

然後，更廣泛地說，我只是想知道，你們在那項支出上，是否看到外部有任何跡象能讓你們對利潤率更有信心。因為我注意到，過去幾週有多少家民生消費品（CPG）公司都強調要回到A&P（廣告與促銷）投資。在你所指出的宏觀背景下，情勢並沒有變得更容易，這點就很有意思。所以，你們正在做的這項增加，是百事公司（PepsiCo）特定、針對主動把握機會的作為嗎？是因為一些對整體產業而言可能看似令人鼓舞、但其實具有迷惑性的因素嗎？或者，你們的增加是否有任何部分只是出於需要跟上腳步、在同業也加碼投資的情況下維持聲量占比？若能釐清這些會很有幫助。

Hugh, why don't you talk through where we're putting the money and then I'll talk about the rest.

Hugh，你先談談我們把錢投到哪裡，然後我再談其餘部分。

Sure, happy to. A couple comments on that, Steve. Number one, it is broad-based. I wouldn't say it's targeted to any particular business or any particular geography. As we cut across snacks and beverages numbers went up in both categories. As we cut across the geographies, all of our geographies saw an increase in advertising and marketing spend.

當然，很樂意。Steve，對此我有幾點評論。第一，這是全面性的。我不會說它是針對任何特定事業或任何特定地理區域。從零食與飲料來看，兩個品類的數字都有上升。從各地區來看，我們所有地區的廣告與行銷支出都有增加。

Number two, in terms of where is the money going, I would say that more of it is going to digital over time. The big constraint on moving more to digital is identifying high-quality properties to advertise on. So it's not just a matter of going for pop-up ads anymore. It's really more sophisticated digital advertising. And that is probably more than anything the rate limiting factor, is finding high-quality assets to invest in.

第二，就資金流向而言，我會說隨著時間推移，更多會投向數位。把更多預算轉向數位的最大限制，在於辨識可投放的高品質媒體資產（properties）。所以不再只是投放彈出式廣告那麼簡單。而是更精密的數位廣告。而這大概是最主要的瓶頸，也就是限制因素在於找到值得投資的高品質資產。

Third, as you've seen as recently as the Super Bowl this past weekend, we are investing in big properties because these big properties do enable breakthrough types of messaging. And I think we, over the last several years, as well as for a longer period of time, have been quite successful in investing in those big properties.

第三，正如你在上週末的超級盃所看到的，我們正在投資大型媒體資產，因為這些大型資產確實能帶來突破性的訊息傳遞。而我認為，過去幾年以及更長一段時間以來，我們在投資這些大型資產方面一直相當成功。

And then, fourth, from a returns perspective, obviously measuring advertising in a marketing return is a little bit trickier than measuring return on price reductions and things like that. That said, with the advent of big data, we actually are getting more sophisticated in terms of our ability to measure those returns. Without getting into all of the details of it, the things I'd point to on a macro level are we've been able to sustain 4% to 5% revenue growth in what's been a challenging environment.

第四，從報酬的角度來看，衡量廣告與行銷的投資報酬，顯然比衡量降價等措施的報酬要更棘手一些。但話說回來，隨著大數據的出現，我們在衡量這些報酬的能力上，確實變得更成熟、更精密。不深入所有細節，從宏觀層面我想指出的是：在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們仍能維持4%到5%的營收成長。

So, when you add all of it up, we'll continue to invest more in advertising and marketing as we see good payback on it. As a management team we are acutely focused on shareholder value creation as the meta metric for all that we do around here. And advertising and marketing is giving us good payback for the shareholders.

所以，綜合以上，我們會在看到良好回收的情況下，持續加大廣告與行銷投資。作為管理團隊，我們高度聚焦於股東價值創造，並將其作為我們在此所做一切的最高衡量指標。而廣告與行銷正為股東帶來良好的回報。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Schmitz of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的Bill Schmitz。

Hi, good morning. Could we just go back to North America a second and just talk about the impact on Frito and the pack down changes and the go-to-market changes. Can you just quantify what you guys think that did to sales over the last year and when it gets lapped? And then maybe the sustainability of growth at Gatorade, which has been phenomenal, and a lot of it's been driven by category growth. Is that broadly like the fitness, health and wellness trend in the US or do you think it's driven by something more dynamic?

嗨，早安。我們能否回到北美談一下，Frito那邊包裝縮小（pack down）變更與通路/上市路徑（go-to-market）調整的影響？你們能否量化一下，認為這在過去一年對銷售造成了多大影響，以及何時會進入可比基期（lapped）？另外，Gatorade的成長可持續性也想請教一下，表現非常亮眼，其中很大一部分是由品類成長帶動。這大致上是因為美國的健身、健康與養生趨勢嗎？還是你認為是由更具動能的因素所驅動？

I'll talk about Gatorade and then you can get your thoughts, Hugh, on what detail you can provide on Frito. I think Gatorade benefited in 2015 from three factors. One is it was a hot year, and t was hotter for a longer period of time. Gatorade does well when the temperature is above normal, especially for as long as it was during the year. So we shouldn't underestimate the impact of that.

我先談Gatorade，然後Hugh你再分享你對Frito能提供哪些細節的看法。我認為Gatorade在2015年受惠於三個因素。第一，那一年很熱，而且高溫持續的時間更長。當氣溫高於常態時，Gatorade表現會更好，尤其像那一年整年高溫持續那麼久。所以我們不應低估這個影響。

Second is the Gatorade innovation has been very good. Fierce and Frost alone contributed significantly to sales growth. And all the new stuff that Gatorade is doing with the smart bottle, with the pods that are tailored for the athlete, the Gatorade Prime and Recover, all of that is giving more legitimacy to the brand, and I think that is driving more of the Gatorade sales.

第二，Gatorade的創新做得非常好。僅Fierce和Frost就對銷售成長有顯著貢獻。此外，Gatorade在智慧水瓶、為運動員量身打造的膠囊（pods）、以及Gatorade Prime與Recover等新品上的所有作為，都讓品牌更具正當性與專業可信度，我認為這正在帶動更多Gatorade的銷售。

Third, I think on a competitive basis, relatively speaking, the fact that so many athletes are choosing Gatorade now is allowing Gatorade to far out-distance any emerging competitors in the space who try to attack Gatorade just on price. Gatorade has managed to hold its own, in fact extend its advantage.

第三，我認為從競爭面來看，相對而言，現在有這麼多運動員選擇Gatorade，使得Gatorade能大幅拉開與該領域新興競爭者的距離；那些競爭者試圖僅以價格來攻擊Gatorade。Gatorade不但守住了陣地，事實上還擴大了優勢。

So, combination of these three have served us well. Going into 2016, I think we'll keep the pedal to the metal on innovation, on execution, and hope that the weather holds up. That's the best we can do. So Frito?

因此，這三者的組合對我們很有幫助。展望2016年，我認為我們會在創新與執行上持續全力以赴，並希望天氣能維持有利。這就是我們能做到的最好程度。那Frito呢？

From a Frito perspective, Bill, I assume your question is around the potato chip promotional package moving from the XXL to the XL bag. That probably cost us, from a volume perspective, about 1 point. Recall that the reason for the strategy is, as we talked during last year, was to increase household penetration with smaller household sizes. The objective was to get a package that smaller households would find attractive as the primary promotional package. In that regard, the strategy has actually been quite successful and I think gotten our volume rebased in a good spot from the standpoint of how we're managing the Lay's business.

從Frito的角度來看，Bill，我猜你問的是洋芋片促銷包裝從XXL改為XL袋裝的調整。就銷量而言，這大概讓我們付出了約1個百分點的代價。請記得，這項策略的原因，正如我們去年談到的，是要在家庭規模變小的情況下提高家庭滲透率。目標是推出一個較小家庭會覺得有吸引力、可作為主要促銷包裝的規格。在這方面，該策略其實相當成功；就我們管理Lay's業務的角度來看，我認為它讓我們的銷量基礎（rebased）落在一個不錯的位置。

More broadly in terms of Frito-Lay performance, you saw 1%, 3%, 7% last year in terms of volume revenue and profit. If you look at Frito's performance over the last four or five years, it's been remarkably consistent. Volume's been around 2%, revenue's been around 4%, and profit's been around 6%, plus or minus 1 point, for quite a few years. I think you can continue, even as we invest and make changes in Frito, you can expect to see that type of performance going forward.

更廣泛地看Frito-Lay的表現，你去年看到的銷量、營收與利潤分別是1%、3%、7%。如果你看Frito過去四、五年的表現，其一致性非常驚人。多年來，銷量大約在2%、營收大約在4%、利潤大約在6%，上下浮動約1個百分點。我認為即便我們在Frito持續投資並做出改變，你仍可預期未來會看到那樣的表現。

Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的Judy Hong。

Good morning, everyone, how are you? I just wanted to go back to Frito-Lay and maybe just get your color on the broader smacking environment in the US. The confectionery category has been a little bit soft. Salty snacks is more stable.s But just in terms of the context of the US consumers perhaps being a bit better off, it seems like maybe the category could do a little bit better. So, any color just in terms of where the consumers are going across the broader macro snacking category would be helpful.

各位早安，你們好嗎？我想回到Frito-Lay，請你們分享一下對美國更廣泛零食環境的看法。糖果（confectionery）品類有點疲弱。鹹味零食相對更穩定。

I think the reason -- let me step back. The overall macro snacking category is probably growing somewhere in the 3% to 4%. And the reason Frito does as well as it does is because it takes occasions from all other macro snacking categories. Frito's able to go after crackers, able to go after sweet occasions through interesting products that comes from a salty heritage.

我想原因是——讓我先退一步說。整體宏觀零食類別大概以 3% 到 4% 的速度成長。而 Frito 之所以能表現得如此出色，是因為它從所有其他宏觀零食類別中搶占食用情境。Frito 能夠切入餅乾，也能透過源自鹹味傳統的有趣產品，切入甜食情境。

We have a frying platform, we have a baking platform, different sort of baking platforms. And we leverage those platforms to go after all of those occasions. I think that's what creates an advantaged model within Frito-Lay. We are not in a zero sum game within macro snacks where any growth that we get has to come at the expense of another category already participating.

我們有油炸平台，也有烘焙平台，還有不同類型的烘焙平台。我們運用這些平台去爭取所有那些食用情境。我認為這正是在 Frito-Lay 內部形成具優勢商業模式的原因。我們並非處在宏觀零食的零和遊戲中——我們取得的任何成長都不必以犧牲另一個已參與的類別為代價。

In the case of Frito, we are in one category and reach out of the core -- remember the old strategy of grow the core and add more? That's really what we're doing. We're looking at the demand of consumers and wondering how we can serve that demand with a Frito-Lay option.

以 Frito 為例，我們立足於一個類別，並向核心之外延伸——還記得以前的策略「做大核心、再加更多」嗎？那正是我們在做的事。我們觀察消費者的需求，並思考如何用一個 Frito-Lay 的選項來滿足那個需求。

And whether it's Cheetos, Fritos or it's the chocolate-covered Lay's that we offered or all the new products on slate for next year, I think we're just going after other macro snacking occasions. And that's why other companies are hurting and Frito-Lay is doing so well. And you combine that with our DSD system, our power of one advantage, we can really get tremendous advantage with customers.

不論是 Cheetos、Fritos，或是我們推出的巧克力包覆 Lay’s，或是明年規劃中的所有新產品，我認為我們就是在爭取其他宏觀零食的食用情境。這也是為什麼其他公司在受挫，而 Frito-Lay 表現得如此好。再加上我們的 DSD 系統、我們的「power of one」優勢，我們確實能在客戶端取得巨大的優勢。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Swartzberg with Stifel Nicolaus.

下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 Mark Swartzberg。

Thanks. Good morning, Indra, good morning, Hugh. Two questions on Latin America, if I could. One is, any detail you can give us on these, quote, strategic investments in the quarter, to what extent they're brand and forward facing and to what extent they were otherwise. And then, secondly, it's early days since you've integrated snacks and beverage in Latin America, but could you give us an update on how that's going, and whether 2016 is a year where we should expect benefits from that to be more significant -- just how that's going and what your outlook from that is.

謝謝。早安，Indra，早安，Hugh。如果可以的話，我有兩個關於拉丁美洲的問題。第一個是，本季所謂的「策略性投資」，你們能否提供一些細節？其中有多少是面向品牌與前端市場的投資，又有多少是其他類型的投資。第二個是，自從你們在拉丁美洲整合零食與飲料以來時間還不長，但能否更新一下進展如何？以及 2016 年我們是否應預期這些效益會更顯著——也就是目前進展如何，以及你們對此的展望。

Investments in Latin America.

拉丁美洲的投資。

Yes, sure, happy to start with that. Good morning, Mark. When you look at Latin America, you really have to take a step back. It's such broad and diverse geography, both in terms of cultures and in terms of economic outlook for the near term. Obviously Brazil has got a significant number of challenges facing into 2016, as it has over the last couple of years. At the other end of the spectrum, Mexico is, as an economy, performing quite well.

好的，當然，我很樂意先從這個開始。早安，Mark。當你看拉丁美洲時，確實需要先退一步。這是一個非常廣闊且多元的地理區域，不論在文化面或短期經濟前景上都是如此。顯然，巴西在邁入 2016 年時面臨相當多的挑戰，過去幾年也是如此。而在光譜的另一端，墨西哥的經濟表現相當不錯。

If you think about what we're trying to accomplish, as you move south into Latin America a lot of our focus has been around making our supply chain more efficient and making our management structures more efficient. And a umber of the investments that we made in the fourth quarter there were geared towards productivity-driving initiatives. On the other hand, in Mexico where the outlook is more positive, the investments we made during the course of 2015 were more growth oriented.

如果你想想我們試圖達成什麼，當你往拉丁美洲南移時，我們的許多重點都放在提升供應鏈效率，以及讓管理架構更有效率。我們在第四季所做的多項投資，都是為了推動生產力提升的計畫。另一方面，在前景較為正面的墨西哥，我們在 2015 年期間所做的投資則更偏向成長導向。

And as we think about our outlook going forward, we expect that mix of probably stronger performance out of Mexico, more margin-improving performance out of the balance of Latin America. That said, we're long term very positive on the geography. We think we've got great market positions and great people down there. And we think it's one of the most important regions of the world for us going forward.

而就我們對未來的展望而言，我們預期這樣的組合將呈現：墨西哥可能有較強的表現，而拉丁美洲其餘地區則會有更多以改善利潤率為主的表現。話雖如此，從長期來看，我們對這個地區非常正面。我們認為我們在當地擁有很好的市場地位，也有很棒的人才。我們也認為，這將是我們未來最重要的全球區域之一。

In terms of integrating snacks and beverages under one leader, look, if we didn't have economies in Latin America that are performing so poorly at this point, we'd start to see results sooner. But right now it's very hard to really point to when we will see results based on the fact that any progress we make is eaten up by macroeconomic challenges.

至於在同一位領導者之下整合零食與飲料，坦白說，如果拉丁美洲目前沒有這麼多表現不佳的經濟體，我們會更早看到成果。但就目前而言，由於我們取得的任何進展都會被總體經濟挑戰所抵消，因此很難明確指出我們何時會看到成果。

We look at underlying in-process metrics, if you want to call it that, as opposed to tail pipe metrics. And everything we're seeing says that we're making great progress in figuring out how to leverage a franchise bottler system with our snacks business to create advantage. And it's going well so far.

我們會看一些底層的進行中指標——如果你願意這麼稱呼——而不是末端結果指標。我們看到的一切都顯示，我們在釐清如何把特許裝瓶商系統與我們的零食業務結合、以創造優勢方面，正取得很大進展。到目前為止進展良好。

So, with that, let me just thank you all for your questions. In closing let me reiterate that we are pleased with our 2015 results. Looking ahead to 2016, we are confident that we have the right plans in place, we're executing well against those plans, and we've set appropriately aggressive targets for 2016.

那麼，最後讓我感謝各位的提問。結語我想再次強調，我們對 2015 年的成果感到滿意。展望 2016 年，我們有信心已制定正確的計畫，我們也正針對這些計畫執行得很好，並且為 2016 年設定了適度積極的目標。

We look forward to updating you on our progress as the year advances. Thank you for your time and questions this morning and, more importantly, for the confidence you've placed in us with your investment. Have a great day.

隨著年度推進，我們期待向各位更新我們的進展。感謝各位今天早上撥冗與提問，更重要的是，感謝各位以投資對我們所展現的信任。祝各位有美好的一天。

Thank you for participating in PepsiCo's fourth-quarter 2015 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參與百事公司 2015 年第四季財報電話會議。您現在可以掛線。