百事 (PEP) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PepsiCo's third-quarter 2015 earnings conference call.

各位早安，歡迎參加百事公司（PepsiCo）2015 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.PepsiCo.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Jamie Caulfield, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Caulfied, you may begin.

今天的電話會議將被錄音，並會存檔於 www.PepsiCo.com。現在我很榮幸介紹投資人關係資深副總裁 Jamie Caulfield 先生。Caulfied 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Joining me on the call today are Indra Nooyi, PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, and Hugh Johnston, PepsiCo's CFO. We'll lead off with prepared comments and then turned to Q&A.

謝謝。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有百事公司董事長暨執行長 Indra Nooyi，以及百事公司財務長 Hugh Johnston。我們將先進行事先準備的發言，接著進入問答。

As we begin the call it's important to note the following. We will make forward-looking statements on this call. Any forward-looking statement inherently involves risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the current predictions and expectations.

在我們開始之前，請務必注意以下事項。我們在本次電話會議中將做出前瞻性陳述。任何前瞻性陳述本質上都涉及風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果與目前的預測與預期出現重大差異。

Information on such risks can be found in today's earnings release and our most recent Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings.

有關此類風險的資訊，可參閱今日的財報新聞稿，以及我們最新的 Form 10-K 與其後向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。

In addition, we will discuss results using non-GAAP measures. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations on our website under the investors section under the events and presentations tab.

此外，我們將使用非 GAAP 指標討論業績。您可在我們網站的投資人專區中，於「活動與簡報」分頁下找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調節表。

As a reminder, beginning this quarter PepsiCo reported its realigned segments. We provided retrospectively revised summary segment results reflecting the Company's new organization structure in early August.

提醒各位，自本季起百事公司已按重新調整後的事業部門進行揭露。我們已於 8 月初提供回溯修訂的部門摘要結果，以反映公司新的組織架構。

As we covered in this morning's release, we have changed the accounting for our Venezuela operations and consequently will no longer consolidate their operating results beginning in the fourth quarter. Further details on this can be found in today's earnings release and the soon-to-be released third-quarter Form 10-Q filing.

如同我們在今早的新聞稿中所述，我們已變更委內瑞拉業務的會計處理，因此自第四季起將不再合併其營運結果。更多細節可參閱今日的財報新聞稿，以及即將發布的第三季 Form 10-Q 申報文件。

And now it is my pleasure to introduce Indra Nooyi.

現在我很榮幸介紹 Indra Nooyi。

Thank you, Jamie, and good morning everyone. Despite a continued choppy global macro environment, we're happy to report another great quarter at PepsiCo.

謝謝你，Jamie，各位早安。儘管全球總體環境仍持續波動，我們很高興向各位報告百事公司再度交出一個非常出色的季度表現。

In the third quarter organic revenue grew 7.4% with global snacks up 10% and global beverages up 5%. Core gross margin improved by 120 basis points. Core constant currency operating profit increased 12% and core constant currency EPS increased 14%.

第三季有機營收成長 7.4%，其中全球零食成長 10%，全球飲料成長 5%。核心毛利率提升 120 個基點。核心固定匯率營業利益成長 12%，核心固定匯率每股盈餘（EPS）成長 14%。

Based on our year-to-date performance and our outlook for the balance of the year, we're increasing our full-year 2015 core constant currency EPS growth outlook to 9%. Also we now plan to return approximately $9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks with share buybacks at the high end of the range we had guided to. Hugh will go into additional details of our guidance later.

基於我們年初至今的表現，以及對今年剩餘期間的展望，我們將 2015 年全年核心固定匯率 EPS 成長展望上調至 9%。此外，我們目前計畫透過股利與庫藏股回購向股東返還約 90 億美元，其中股票回購將位於我們先前指引區間的高端。Hugh 稍後將進一步說明我們的指引細節。

So let me now comment briefly on our results. We again had very strong results in North America. This comprises over 60% of our net revenue and approximately two-thirds of our core division operating profit year to date.

接下來我簡要評論我們的業績。我們在北美再次取得非常強勁的成果。北美占我們淨營收的 60% 以上，且年初至今約占核心事業部營業利益的三分之二。

North America Beverages had a terrific quarter in which we grew our organic volume by 3%, organic revenue by 5% and core constant currency operating profit by 10%. During the quarter we held value share in liquid refreshment beverages and gained value share across important subcategories including ready to drink tea and water.

北美飲料本季表現極佳：有機銷量成長 3%，有機營收成長 5%，核心固定匯率營業利益成長 10%。本季我們在液態即飲飲品（liquid refreshment beverages）的價值市占率維持穩定，並在多個重要子品類（包括即飲茶與瓶裝水）提升價值市占率。

Frito-Lay North America delivered another quarter of solid results with organic revenue growth of 2% and core constant currency operating profit growth of 7%. Core operating margins increased by 155 basis points, reflecting execution of price pack architecture management and ongoing productivity initiatives across the value chain.

百事旗下北美菲多利（Frito-Lay North America）再度交出穩健的一季：有機營收成長 2%，核心固定匯率營業利益成長 7%。核心營業利益率提升 155 個基點，反映我們在價格與包裝架構管理的執行，以及價值鏈各環節持續推動的生產力計畫。

In Quaker Foods North America, organic revenue increased 2% and core constant currency operating profit increased 1.5%. And operating profit performance is noteworthy given the fact that they are lapping a divestiture gain in the prior year. Quaker has gained value share in both hot and ready to eat cereal both in the quarter and year to date.

在北美桂格食品（Quaker Foods North America），有機營收成長 2%，核心固定匯率營業利益成長 1.5%。考量到其去年同期包含一筆處分利益、形成較高比較基期，本季營業利益表現尤其值得注意。桂格在熱食穀物與即食穀物兩個品類上，無論本季或年初至今皆提升了價值市占率。

And we are proud to report that, during the third quarter, PepsiCo was the largest contributor to US retail sales growth among all food and beverage manufacturers with over $400 million of retail sales growth in all major channels. This was double the next largest contributor to growth.

我們也很自豪地報告，在第三季，百事公司是所有食品與飲料製造商中，對美國零售銷售成長貢獻最大的公司；在所有主要通路的零售銷售成長超過 4 億美元。這一數字是第二大成長貢獻者的兩倍。

Notably, North American beverages was a key driver of US retail sales growth within PepsiCo and the largest contributor to US retail sales growth on a standalone basis. On a year-to-date basis PepsiCo has contributed over $1.1 billion of retail sales growth in all major channels, which again was the largest contributor to US retail sales growth among all food and beverage manufacturers. And this was nearly 2.5 times the next largest contributor to growth.

值得注意的是，北美飲料是百事公司內部推動美國零售銷售成長的關鍵動能，且以單一事業體來看，也是美國零售銷售成長的最大貢獻者。以年初至今計，百事公司在所有主要通路貢獻了超過 11 億美元的零售銷售成長，再次成為所有食品與飲料製造商中對美國零售銷售成長貢獻最大的公司。而這幾乎是第二大成長貢獻者的 2.5 倍。

Now turning to our international markets and our developing and emerging markets. Although we continue to face volatile and challenging macros in a number of these markets, we are managing what we can control to stay competitive in this marketplace. And we continue to see good growth in a number of these markets.

接著談到我們的國際市場，以及開發中與新興市場。儘管我們在其中若干市場仍面臨波動且具挑戰性的總體環境，我們正管理並掌控可控事項，以在市場中保持競爭力。同時，我們在其中多個市場仍持續看到良好的成長。

For example, our business in Turkey achieved double-digit organic revenue growth. Mexico achieved high single-digit organic revenue growth and Egypt achieved mid-single-digit organic revenue growth.

例如，我們在土耳其的業務達成有機營收雙位數成長。墨西哥達成有機營收高個位數成長，埃及達成有機營收中個位數成長。

Now as we mentioned last quarter, on each of our earnings calls we will provide an update on our big initiatives to drive our operating and financial performance, brand building, innovation, execution, productivity and cash returned to shareholders. On our Q2 earnings call we talked about innovation. Today we will focus on productivity, which is critical to succeed in today's challenging environment.

如同我們上季提到的，在每次財報電話會議中，我們都會就推動營運與財務表現的重大計畫提供最新進展，包括品牌建設、創新、執行力、生產力，以及回饋股東的現金。在第二季財報電話會議中，我們談到創新。今天我們將聚焦於生產力，這是在當前充滿挑戰的環境中取得成功的關鍵。

With volatile macros globally, an increasingly competitive landscape with digital technologies disrupting many aspects of our business, productivity has never been more important. As all of you know well, productivity enables current financial performance and provides investment funding to sustain growth into the future.

在全球總體環境波動之下，競爭態勢日益激烈，且數位科技正顛覆我們業務的許多面向，生產力的重要性前所未有。各位都很清楚，生產力既能支撐當期財務表現，也能提供投資資金以維持未來的成長。

When we think of productivity we think both in terms of efficiency, which is getting the same result using fewer resources, and effectiveness, which is getting a greater result using the same resources. Our productivity initiatives to date have been largely focused on efficiency and we've had pretty good results. We delivered $3 billion in productivity between 2012 and 2014 and we're on track to deliver the first year of our current five-year $5 billion program that we started in 2015.

談到生產力時，我們同時從效率與效能兩方面思考：效率是用更少資源達到相同成果；效能是用相同資源取得更大成果。迄今我們的生產力計畫主要聚焦於效率，且取得相當不錯的成果。2012 至 2014 年間我們實現了 30 億美元的生產力提升；而我們在 2015 年啟動的現行五年 50 億美元計畫，也正按進度達成第一年的目標。

And this productivity has been supported in large part by investments we made in technology, starting with our implementation of SAP in the early 2000s. And this allowed us to establish a common operating language and to standardize operating metrics across the globe.

而這些生產力提升，在很大程度上得益於我們對科技的投資，起點可追溯至 2000 年代初期導入 SAP。這使我們得以建立共同的營運語言，並在全球範圍內將營運指標標準化。

We also adopted an operating model that has reduced [plans] and layers in the organization and has promoted the sharing of best practices around the world. We also established truly global functions in operations, procurement, IT, HR and Finance, as well as very lean category horizontals that are driving greater capability building, harmonization and efficiency in new product development and global brand management.

我們也採用一套營運模式，降低組織中的[計畫]與層級，並促進全球最佳實務的分享。我們亦在營運、採購、資訊科技（IT）、人力資源（HR）與財務等領域建立真正的全球性職能，同時設置非常精實的品類橫向團隊，以推動新產品開發與全球品牌管理在能力建構、協同一致與效率方面的提升。

Together, our technology investments and operating model are allowing us to leverage our global scale to a much greater extent. With these foundational elements in place we have made progress in multiple areas.

綜合而言，我們的技術投資與營運模式正使我們能在更大程度上運用全球規模優勢。在這些基礎要素到位後，我們已在多個領域取得進展。

First, increased automation. We have installed packaging automation across approximately a third of our snacks plants worldwide, enabling us to reduce packaging label costs in these facilities by at least 50%.

第一，提高自動化程度。我們已在全球約三分之一的零食工廠導入包裝自動化，使這些設施的包裝標籤成本至少降低50%。

In Frito-Lay North America for example, approximately 65% of all production utilizes fully automated packaging. In Mexico, we updated the majority of our packaging tubes with high-speed equipment over the last few years, enabling us to increase throughput by approximately 40%.

例如在北美Frito-Lay，約65%的全部產量採用全自動包裝。在墨西哥，過去幾年我們以高速設備更新了大多數包裝筒，使產能吞吐量提升約40%。

Across the Middle East, we installed automated palletizing and warehousing technologies in many key markets, resulting in improvement in labor productivity since 2013.

在中東地區，我們在多個關鍵市場導入自動化碼垛與倉儲技術，自2013年以來帶動勞動生產力提升。

Second, we are restructuring our go-to-market systems. Since the success of our Perry, Georgia, pilot in 2009, we have expanded our geographic enterprise solutions or GES as we call them at Frito-Lay North America to a total of 11 projects, which are now at various stages of deployment across locations in both the US and Canada. The consolidation of this plant and distribution networks will result in scale that enables economic implementation of automated order picking, the reduction of distribution centers and a highly efficient direct-to-store delivery system directly from our plant.

第二，我們正在重整我們的市場進入（go-to-market）系統。自2009年我們在喬治亞州佩里（Perry, Georgia）的試點成功以來，我們已將我們在北美Frito-Lay稱為「地理企業解決方案」（GES）的計畫擴展至共11個專案，目前正於美國與加拿大各地點的不同部署階段推進。整合該工廠與配送網路將形成規模效益，使自動化拣貨得以具經濟性地導入、減少配送中心數量，並建立由工廠直接出貨至門市的高效率直送（direct-to-store）配送系統。

This model is also being applied to the North American beverages business where we are combining large format and small format routes on the same trucks with plans to eliminate geographic overlap, resulting in 15% fewer routes.

此模式也正應用於北美飲料業務：我們將大包裝與小包裝路線合併在同一輛卡車上，並計畫消除地理重疊，因而使路線數量減少15%。

Third, we're optimizing our global manufacturing footprint. Since 2010, we have reduced the number of company-owned beverage plants in North America by 23%. At the same time, we've increased our capacity utilization by 20%.

第三，我們正在優化全球製造版圖。自2010年以來，我們已將北美自有飲料工廠數量減少23%。同時，我們的產能利用率提高了20%。

In Europe in the past three years, we closed six plants across our beverage and dairy businesses, decreasing our footprint by 7% and generating more than $20 million of annual savings and further increasing our capacity utilization.

在歐洲，過去三年我們在飲料與乳製品業務共關閉六座工廠，使版圖縮減7%，並帶來每年超過2,000萬美元的節省，同時進一步提升產能利用率。

Finally, in shared services. We are increasingly leveraging shared service centers and selectively outsourcing financial transaction processing, accounting, reporting and other back-office tasks.

最後，共享服務方面。我們日益善用共享服務中心，並選擇性地將財務交易處理、會計、報告及其他後勤（back-office）工作外包。

To date, the program has been executed in 18 countries, reducing costs while improving analytical capabilities in service levels and streamlining IT infrastructure.

截至目前，該計畫已在18個國家執行，在降低成本的同時，提升服務水準的分析能力並精簡IT基礎架構。

Our efficiency journey is in no way done. In addition to these major supply chain productivity initiatives, we are also embarked on our version of zero-based budgeting, something we call Smart Spending. We studied ZBB in great detail and we realize that implementing it as currently designed ran the risk of starving resources to drive top-line growth initiatives.

我們的效率之旅絕非已完成。除這些主要的供應鏈生產力計畫外，我們也正推動我們版本的零基預算（ZBB），我們稱之為「Smart Spending」。我們對ZBB進行了非常深入的研究，並意識到若按其目前設計方式導入，可能會有使推動營收成長（top-line growth）計畫的資源不足的風險。

Our version of ZBB, or Smart Spending as we call it, focuses on rightsizing our operating expenses now that we're beginning to see benefits from our technology investments and global coordination, while ringfencing top-line driving resources to focus more on deriving additional effectiveness from them. And this is the balanced approach, one that focuses both on a relentless drive for efficiency but preserves investments that drive top-line growth.

我們的ZBB版本——亦即我們所稱的Smart Spending——著重於在我們開始看到技術投資與全球協同帶來效益之際，將營運費用調整至適當規模（rightsizing），同時為推動營收成長的資源設置保護範圍（ringfencing），以更聚焦於從這些資源中取得更高的效能。這是一種平衡的做法：既持續不懈地追求效率，也保留能推動營收成長的投資。

Which brings me to our focus on increasing effectiveness of our spend. We have expanded our view of productivity to ensure greater effectiveness across every element of spending.

這也引出我們對提升支出效能的重點。我們已擴大對生產力的視角，以確保在每一項支出要素上都能取得更高的效能。

Just to give you a few examples, we are sharpening our capabilities and revenue management to drive greater effectiveness of promotion and other trade spending. We are building the required tools and training to realize a greater return on our advertising and marketing investments. And we are developing new product platforms that can scale across multiple countries rapidly and all of this is being enabled and accelerated by our lean global category structures.

舉幾個例子，我們正強化能力與收益管理，以提升促銷及其他通路費用（trade spending）的效能。我們正在建立所需工具與訓練，以提高廣告與行銷投資的報酬。我們也在開發可快速擴展至多個國家的新產品平台，而這一切都由我們精實的全球品類架構所促成並加速。

We believe our approach is working and driving meaningful tangible results. Over the past three years, ending in 2014, we have realized an average of $1 billion of annual productivity savings. Net revenue per employee is up 10%, operating profit per employee is up 9%.

我們相信我們的方法正在奏效，並帶來具意義且可衡量的成果。在截至2014年的過去三年中，我們平均每年實現10億美元的生產力節省。每位員工的淨營收提升10%，每位員工的營業利益提升9%。

This quarter marks our 13th consecutive quarter of gross margin expansion. And from year-end 2011, CapEx as a percent of net revenue went down from 4.9% to 4.1% on a rolling four-quarter basis.

本季是我們毛利率連續第13季擴張。且自2011年底起，以滾動四季計算，資本支出（CapEx）占淨營收比重由4.9%降至4.1%。

Importantly, these achievements have contributed to strong free cash flow productivity and core net ROIC improvement. Since the beginning of 2013, to the third quarter of 2015, we have generated cumulative core free cash flow, excluding certain items, of more than $22 billion which represents 115% of core net income over the same time period.

重要的是，這些成果促成了強勁的自由現金流生產力與核心淨投入資本報酬率（core net ROIC）的改善。自2013年初至2015年第三季，我們在排除特定項目後累計產生超過220億美元的核心自由現金流，約為同期間核心淨利的115%。

And core net ROIC has increased by 380 basis points to 19.1% at the end of the third-quarter 2015 compared to 15.3% at year-end 2012. Ultimately we believe our approach creates a virtuous cycle with productivity fueling the reinvestment and transformation necessary for sustainable top- and bottom-line growth and shareholder value creation.

此外，2015年第三季末核心淨ROIC較2012年底的15.3%提高380個基點至19.1%。最終，我們相信此方法能形成良性循環：以生產力帶動再投資與轉型，進而支持可持續的營收與獲利成長，並創造股東價值。

With this let me turn the call over to Hugh Johnston. Hugh?

接下來，我把電話會議交給Hugh Johnston。Hugh？

Thank you, Indra, and good morning everyone. First, let's discuss guidance.

謝謝你，Indra，各位早安。首先，我們來談談財測指引。

As Indra mentioned, based on the strength of our year-to-date performance and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we've increased our full-year core constant currency EPS growth target to 9% from 8% previously, which includes the expected fourth-quarter impact of the Venezuela accounting change.

如Indra所提，基於我們年初至今的強勁表現以及對今年剩餘期間的展望，我們將全年核心、固定匯率（constant currency）EPS成長目標由先前的8%上調至9%，其中包含預期第四季委內瑞拉會計變更的影響。

Additional details regarding the change in accounting for Venezuela can be found in our third-quarter earnings release and in the soon-to-be-released 10-Q.

關於委內瑞拉會計處理變更的更多細節，可見於我們第三季財報新聞稿以及即將發布的10-Q。

Our other targets remain unchanged. For the full-year 2015, we continue to expect mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, core operating margin expansion as organic top-line growth and productivity should offset negative geographic mix and commodity inflation, which incorporates the impact of transaction-related foreign exchange headwinds. And, approximately $1 billion in productivity savings.

我們其他目標維持不變。就2015全年而言，我們仍預期有中個位數的有機營收成長、核心營業利益率擴張；有機營收成長與生產力提升應可抵銷不利的地理組合與大宗商品通膨，其中亦納入與交易相關的外匯逆風影響。以及約10億美元的生產力節省。

Below the division operating line, we continue to expect corporate cost to be lower, a core tax rate of approximately 25% and a reduced share count. We now expect foreign exchange translation to negatively impact net revenue and core earnings per share growth by approximately 10 and 11 percentage points respectively, based on current market consensus rates.

在事業部營業利益線以下，我們仍預期公司成本較低、核心稅率約25%，以及流通股數下降。依目前市場共識匯率，我們現在預期外匯換算將分別對淨營收與核心每股盈餘成長造成約10個與11個百分點的負面影響。

Taking our 2014 core EPS of $4.63 and applying our guidance and current market consensus of foreign exchange impact implies 2015 core EPS of approximately $4.54.

以2014年核心EPS 4.63美元為基礎，套用我們的指引與目前市場共識的外匯影響，推估2015年核心EPS約為4.54美元。

As you model out the fourth quarter, I'd ask you to consider the following. First, we expect foreign exchange translation to have an approximate 8 point unfavorable impact on fourth-quarter net revenue growth and an approximate 8 point unfavorable impact on fourth-quarter core EPS growth, based on current market consensus rates. Venezuelan operations contributed $0.03 to core EPS in the prior-year quarter.

在你們建立第四季模型時，我想請各位考量以下事項。第一，依目前市場共識匯率，我們預期外匯換算將對第四季淨營收成長造成約8個百分點的不利影響，並對第四季核心EPS成長造成約8個百分點的不利影響。委內瑞拉業務在去年同期季度對核心EPS貢獻0.03美元。

Second, the North American Beverages business will face a difficult core constant currency operating profit growth comparison. Below the division operating profit line, net interest expense is expected to increase in the fourth quarter versus last year driven by higher interest rates and higher debt balances.

第二，北美飲料業務在核心固定匯率營業利益成長方面，將面臨艱難的比較基期。在部門營業利益線以下，受較高利率與較高負債餘額所驅動，預期第四季的淨利息費用將較去年增加。

From a cash flow perspective, we continue to expect full-year free cash flow excluding certain items of more than $7 billion. We expect our capital allocation discipline to continue to drive core ROIC improvement. This is building on the steady progress we've made in ROIC with core net ROIC up 380 basis points from 2012 to 19.1% through the third quarter of 2015 on a rolling four-quarter basis.

從現金流的角度來看，我們仍預期全年扣除特定項目後的自由現金流將超過70億美元。我們預期資本配置紀律將持續推動核心ROIC改善。這是建立在我們ROIC穩健進展的基礎上；以滾動四季計算，截至2015年第三季，核心淨ROIC自2012年以來已提升380個基點至19.1%。

We expect shareholder cash returns to be very strong. We now expect to return approximately $9 billion to shareholders in 2015, approximately $4 billion in dividends and $5 billion in share repurchases. Our current share repurchase outlook is at the high-end of the range we provided last quarter.

我們預期股東現金回饋將非常強勁。我們目前預期2015年將向股東返還約90億美元，其中約40億美元為股利、50億美元為股票回購。我們目前的股票回購展望位於上季所提供區間的高端。

Our annualized dividend is now $2.81, an approximate 60% payout ratio based on 2014 core EPS. This represents the 43rd consecutive year of annual dividend increases and our annualized dividends per share have grown at a 10% compound annual rate over the past 10 years.

我們目前年化股利為2.81美元，依2014年核心每股盈餘計算，約為60%的配息率。這是連續第43年年度股利增加，且過去10年我們的每股年化股利以10%的複合年成長率成長。

So, to summarize, our core constant currency earnings per share outlook for 2015 has improved from our last call. And free cash flow, disciplined capital allocation and returning cash to our shareholders remain top priorities for the Company.

因此，總結來說，我們對2015年核心固定匯率每股盈餘的展望較上次電話會議有所改善。而自由現金流、嚴謹的資本配置，以及向股東返還現金，仍是公司的首要重點。

With that, operator, we will take the first question.

接下來，接線員，我們將開始第一個提問。

(Operator Instructions) John Faucher, JPMorgan.

(接線員指示) John Faucher，摩根大通。

Good morning. You talked about some of the markets that are doing well and I think where the street is really concerned here is in terms of some of the markets where Russia, Brazil where we think there's potentially a little more macro impact.

早安。你談到一些表現良好的市場，而我認為市場（華爾街）真正擔心的是，像俄羅斯、巴西等市場，可能會受到更多總體經濟影響。

And given the fact you guys are about four weeks into the quarter can you talk about whether or not you've seen some of these macro shifts have an impact on the consumer and how should we think about those markets going forward? And then a quick question for Hugh which is if we look at this it seems as though if Venezuela is about 3% this year on the run rate basis of earnings you're covering about 50 basis points in Q4, so should we think about the balance coming out through the first three quarters of next year? Thanks.

鑑於你們本季已經進行約四週，能否談談你們是否看到這些總體經濟變化對消費者造成影響？我們應該如何看待這些市場未來的走勢？另外給Hugh一個快問：如果我們看這裡，似乎委內瑞拉今年以獲利的運行率基礎約占3%，而你們在第四季涵蓋了約50個基點，那麼我們是否應該預期其餘部分會在明年前三季反映出來？謝謝。

John, you know global macros are volatile as I mentioned in my prepared comments. And, whenever there is volatility in the marketplace the consumer behavior does reflect some of this volatility.

John，如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，全球總體經濟波動很大。而只要市場出現波動，消費者行為確實會反映出部分波動。

The good news is that we're not luxury items or high ticket items. We are basic food and beverage items. So, we see a slowdown but not significant.

好消息是，我們不是奢侈品或高單價商品。我們是基本的食品與飲料品項。因此，我們會看到放緩，但不會很顯著。

Having said that I think the most important thing is we have a portfolio that we can play between developed and developing and emerging markets. And, somehow we balance the portfolio to deliver the results. But the macro volatility is here to stay.

話雖如此，我認為最重要的是，我們擁有一個可在已開發市場與開發中及新興市場之間靈活運用的產品組合。我們會以某種方式平衡這個組合以交出成果。但總體經濟的波動將會持續存在。

Okay and then John to answer your question regarding Venezuela, as you mentioned it's worth $0.03 that we're lapping right now going into the fourth quarter. And we are covering that as a part of our 9% guidance. 2016 we will get to guidance in February, we won't discuss that on this call.

好的，另外John，針對你關於委內瑞拉的問題，如你所提到的，我們目前在進入第四季時所面臨的比較基期約為0.03美元。而我們已將其納入9%指引的一部分來涵蓋。至於2016年，我們會在2月提供指引，本次電話會議不會討論。

What I will share with investors is in 2015 Venezuela is worth about $0.10. So that's what we'll be lapping as we get into 2016. But rather than get into one-off guidance in 2016 we'll provide comprehensive guidance on the February call.

我可以與投資人分享的是，2015年委內瑞拉約相當於0.10美元。因此，進入2016年時，我們將會面臨這部分的比較基期。但與其在2016年提供零星指引，我們會在2月的電話會議上提供完整指引。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

Dara Mohsenian，摩根士丹利。

So first just a detailed question for Hugh. Do you guys have an extra week in 2016 and if you do how much will that add to EPS? And then the real question I was hoping for an update on the potato chip revenue management program at FLNA.

首先給Hugh一個細節問題。你們2016年是否會多一週？如果是，將為每股盈餘增加多少？接著我真正想問的是，關於FLNA的洋芋片收益管理計畫，能否提供最新進展？

How is it trending so far versus expectations, how's it being received by consumers and your retail partners, and going forward from here should we expect volume growth to improve sequentially or will it really take another couple of quarters before we cycle the program to see sustained volume improvement? Thanks.

到目前為止相較於預期的趨勢如何？消費者與你們的零售合作夥伴的接受度如何？以及往後來看，我們是否應該預期銷量成長會逐季改善，還是需要再過幾季、等計畫進入比較基期後，才會看到持續性的銷量改善？謝謝。

Yes, so on the 53rd week the answer is yes. We do have a 53rd week every fifth or six year depending on how the days fall and 2016 will be a 53-week year.

是的，關於第53週，答案是是。我們每隔五或六年會有一次第53週，取決於日曆天數如何落點，而2016年將是53週的一年。

As I mentioned on John's question as well in terms of guidance and impact on that we will get to that on the February call. It's not time to handle that right now.

如同我在回答John的問題時也提到的，關於指引以及其影響，我們會在2月的電話會議上說明。現在還不是處理這個的時候。

And on the PC revenue management we're beginning to see all of the work we did on that revenue management program beginning to take root. It clearly helped the profitability because it's really price pack architecture to manage the SKUs on the shelf which were really getting much too complex.

至於PC（洋芋片）收益管理方面，我們開始看到先前在該收益管理計畫上所做的所有工作逐漸扎根。它確實有助於獲利能力，因為其核心是透過價格與包裝架構來管理貨架上的SKU，而這些SKU先前確實變得過於複雜。

And we're beginning to see the positive impact of all of the work we did over the last three quarters. Volume growth is beginning to come back and clearly profitability has been helped by the whole revenue management program.

我們開始看到過去三季所做所有工作的正面影響。銷量成長正開始回升，而整體收益管理計畫也明顯提升了獲利能力。

In addition to that one of the goals of the program was to increase the number of households that are buying Lay's by virtue of recognizing the smaller household in the United States and in fact that impact is happening. So we feel good about the strategy as well as the revenue management implications.

此外，該計畫的目標之一，是因應美國較小家庭戶的趨勢，藉此增加購買Lay's的家庭戶數，而事實上這個效果正在發生。因此，我們對這項策略以及其收益管理面的影響都感到樂觀。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

Bryan Spillane，美國銀行。

Good morning everyone. Just I guess two questions related to comments on productivity.

各位早安。我想有兩個與生產力評論相關的問題。

I think first if I look at currency or constant currency operating profit growth it's about $700 million of profit this year. So could you just give us some context in terms of how much of that profit growth has come from productivity dropping, how much of is just a natural leverage in the business and maybe some context in terms of rate of reinvestment this year.

我想首先，如果我看以固定匯率計的營業利益成長，今年大約是7億美元的獲利。所以你們能否提供一些背景：這些獲利成長有多少來自生產力提升，有多少只是業務的自然槓桿效應？另外也請提供今年再投資比率的一些背景。

Yes, Bryan, as always this is a challenging question to answer because in a Company with PepsiCo's complexity, both geographically and from a channel product perspective, isolating one of the variables is a little bit tricky. What I would say is this, the combination of the higher productivity, in addition to that the benefits that we are relatively getting on commodities, and then comparing that to the natural rate of inflation for PepsiCo's portfolio of 4%, and comparing that to the level of fixed cost leverage we get through the P&L; 60 basis points for the quarter we think is a good number for the year.

是的，Bryan，一如往常，這是一個很難回答的問題，因為像百事公司這樣複雜的企業，無論在地理分布或通路與產品面向上，要單獨拆解某一個變數都有點棘手。我會這麼說：更高的生產力，再加上我們在大宗商品上相對獲得的效益，然後把這些與百事產品組合約4%的自然通膨率相比，再與我們透過損益表取得的固定成本槓桿程度相比；我們認為本季60個基點、作為全年水準，是一個不錯的數字。

We've been delivering good leverage and the balancing act of how much are we reinvesting back in R&D and reinvesting back in A&M, again it's a bit difficult to isolate the variables. Suffice it to say we are investing meaningful amounts in R&D and A&M in order to drive the top-line growth that you're seeing.

我們一直在提供良好的槓桿效益，而在研發（R&D）再投資與在A&M再投資之間要如何拿捏平衡，坦白說要把各個變數單獨拆開來看有點困難。總之，我們正在對研發與A&M投入相當可觀的金額，以推動你所看到的營收成長。

And we have tools and technologies as we get more digital tools that are disrupting many parts of our business.

而且隨著我們取得更多數位工具，我們也擁有各種工具與技術，正在顛覆我們業務的許多環節。

Caroline Levy, CLSA.

Caroline Levy，CLSA。

Thanks so much. Good morning. I wonder if you could just take us through the US beverage environment in a little bit more detail, talking about how carbonated soft drinks are doing particularly diet versus specifics on you mentioned how strong tea is and how that shift in categories affect margins going forward?

非常感謝。早安。我想請您更詳細地帶我們了解一下美國飲料市場環境：談談碳酸軟性飲料的表現，特別是健怡（diet）相較於其他品項；另外您提到茶類很強勁，想請教品類結構的轉移未來將如何影響毛利率？

First of all good morning Caroline. You know the US beverage environment is pretty good actually. There's good portfolio management happening in the industry and I'd say that the CSD market continues to be under pressure from a volume perspective.

首先，早安Caroline。你知道，其實美國飲料市場環境相當不錯。產業正在進行良好的產品組合管理；我會說碳酸軟性飲料（CSD）市場在銷量面仍持續承壓。

From a value perspective because of good revenue management and good pricing in the industry the value numbers are way better than the volume numbers. But clearly the big story here is non-carbs and the non-carbs are really what's driving all of the growth in the whole industry.

但從價值面來看，由於產業有良好的營收管理與定價，價值端的數據遠比銷量端好。不過很明顯，這裡最大的故事是非碳酸（non-carbs），而非碳酸才是真正驅動整個產業成長的動力。

And again in non-carbs profitability varies. It ranges all the way from bottled water to other products that have higher profitability.

而且在非碳酸品類中，獲利能力也不一樣。從瓶裝水一路到其他獲利更高的產品都有。

So I think the challenge at every point in the North American Beverage business is really twofold if you want to think about it. How do you play the game across the portfolio between CSDs and non-carbs, and within CSDs how do you alternate between a Mountain Dew versus a Pepsi versus a Kickstart. So that's one balancing game that we have to go through.

所以我認為北美飲料業務在任何時點的挑戰，若要這樣想，其實是雙重的。第一，你要如何在產品組合中，在碳酸軟性飲料與非碳酸之間布局；而在碳酸軟性飲料內部，又要如何在Mountain Dew、Pepsi、Kickstart之間做取捨與切換。這是我們必須面對的一個平衡課題。

But the second part is also channel wise. How much emphasis do you place on single-serve and driving single-serve sales, which have got a different profit profile than large pack or multi-serve products.

但第二個部分也與通路有關。你要在多大程度上強調單瓶/單份（single-serve）並推動其銷售？因為它的獲利結構與大包裝或多人分享（multi-serve）產品不同。

So the challenge in this industry is it's a very complex, very big industry. It's how do you play this whole game intelligently.

因此這個產業的挑戰在於：它是一個非常複雜、規模非常大的產業。關鍵是你要如何聰明地玩好這整盤棋。

Now I will tell you one thing, the fact that we own the bulk of our bottling system and the fact that most of our bottlers are very aligned with us, very good set of bottling partners, actually allows us to be a lot more nimble and effect in the market the right pricing strategies, revenue management strategies and get the right innovation to the marketplace.

我再補充一點：我們擁有大部分的裝瓶系統，而且多數裝瓶商與我們高度一致、是一組非常好的裝瓶合作夥伴，這其實讓我們能更靈活地在市場上推動正確的定價策略、營收管理策略，並把正確的創新帶到市場。

Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

Judy Hong，高盛。

Thank you, good morning everyone. So Indra you talked about the focus on increasing the promotional spending effectiveness as part of the productivity initiatives. I was hoping to get a little bit more color just in terms of where do you think PepsiCo is in the context of what the industry is doing.

謝謝，各位早安。Indra，你提到在生產力提升計畫中，重點之一是提高促銷支出的效益。我希望能再多了解一些：就產業整體在做的事情來看，你認為百事公司目前處於什麼位置？

We've been hearing this trade spend effectiveness programs for a while, so how is it different this time? Is it more evolutionary versus revolutionary? And then some of the categories that you think are right for this to continue within your portfolio.

我們聽到「通路/貿易費用（trade spend）效益提升」這類計畫已經有一段時間了，那這次有何不同？是比較偏向漸進式（evolutionary）而非革命式（revolutionary）嗎？另外，你認為在你們的產品組合中，哪些品類適合持續推進這件事？

And then Hugh just on a follow-up on Venezuela. So it seems like Venezuela probably added about 1 to 2 points to revenue growth. So just can you clarify or quantify the revenue impact? And then in the fourth quarter as you deconsolidate Venezuela, how much of the organic revenue growth is that risk in terms of taking that out of your P&L?

另外Hugh，我想追問委內瑞拉。看起來委內瑞拉大概為營收成長貢獻了約1到2個百分點。你能否釐清或量化其對營收的影響？以及在第四季你們將委內瑞拉去合併（deconsolidate）後，若把它從損益表（P&L）中拿掉，對有機營收成長的風險大概是多少？

Again I don't want to get into too much detail because now you're asking us to get into what really drives PepsiCo. But I'll just roughly tell you that you have to look at trade spending management and revenue management together.

我不想講得太細，因為你現在是在問我們百事公司真正的驅動因素。但我可以大致說明：你必須把通路/貿易費用管理（trade spending management）與營收管理（revenue management）放在一起看。

Because in a way the two of them are how we manage the shelf. And as the digital tools get better and better and more tools are available to get more visibility into consumer interaction with different packages, the way we do revenue management improves.

因為某種程度上，這兩者就是我們如何管理貨架的方式。而隨著數位工具越來越好、可用工具越來越多，能更清楚看見消費者與不同包裝之間的互動，我們做營收管理的方式也會提升。

If you look at Frito-Lay's recent program on Project Drive, that was a trade spending and revenue management program because, in a way, the way we manage the packaging to improve the profitability for the retailers in addition to improving the whole spending effectiveness. So I think the pace at which we move in this area is a function of the tools available for us to have more visibility into consumer buying decisions and how we do shelf assortment.

如果你看Frito-Lay近期的Project Drive計畫，那就是一個通路/貿易費用與營收管理的計畫；因為某種程度上，我們透過包裝管理來提升零售商的獲利能力，同時也提升整體支出效益。所以我認為，我們在這個領域推進的速度，取決於我們可用的工具是否能讓我們更清楚看見消費者購買決策，以及我們如何做貨架品項組合（shelf assortment）。

It's a journey. We're investing more and more in tools, training, capabilities and making sure everybody gets trained in these tools, developing market tools, emerging market tools, developed market tools, what we do with modern trade, what we do with traditional trade.

這是一段旅程。我們正投入越來越多在工具、訓練與能力建置上，並確保每個人都接受這些工具的訓練：包含新興市場工具、成熟市場工具；我們在現代通路（modern trade）怎麼做、在傳統通路（traditional trade）怎麼做。

We're all about the training. It's a journey, Judy, and it's going to take a few years before we're fully done.

我們非常重視訓練。Judy，這是一段旅程，還需要幾年時間我們才會完全到位。

But as these tools roll out, we start to see the benefits roll into the P&L. And that's what you saw in Frito-Lay, the Project Drive was a great example of it.

但隨著這些工具逐步上線，我們開始看到效益反映到損益表（P&L）中。你在Frito-Lay看到的就是如此，Project Drive就是一個很好的例子。

And even in North American Beverage profitability in a way is a function of how to intelligently managing both the product portfolio and trade spending. So with that let me turn to Hugh to talk about your second question, Venezuela.

甚至在北美飲料業務，獲利能力某種程度上也取決於如何聰明地管理產品組合與通路/貿易費用。那麼我把第二個問題—委內瑞拉—交給Hugh來回答。

Yes, Judy, in terms of year-to-date Venezuela is worth about 2 points in our numbers. And in terms of going forward into the fourth quarter when we talk about organic revenue growth we are treating the deconsolidation as a structural change. So we will basically talk organic ex-Venezuela.

好的，Judy，就今年截至目前而言，委內瑞拉大約為我們的數字貢獻了2個百分點。至於第四季往後，當我們談有機營收成長時，我們會把去合併視為結構性變動（structural change）。因此我們基本上會以「排除委內瑞拉（ex-Venezuela）」來談有機成長。

Vivien Azer, Cowen and Company.

Vivien Azer，Cowen and Company。

Hi, good morning. My question has to do with your European segment and specifically your beverage volumes.

嗨，早安。我的問題與你們的歐洲事業部有關，特別是你們的飲料銷量。

I recognize that you're lapping a slightly easier compare. But it does look like your volumes inflected nicely so I was hoping you could offer some color on the drivers of that. Thank you.

我知道你們面對的比較基期稍微容易一些。但看起來你們的銷量回升得很不錯，所以我想請你們補充一下背後的驅動因素。謝謝。

You know we have a largely zero calorie portfolio in Europe and parts of the country, parts of the region did well. And there were parts where places like Russia we focused more on value than we did on volume. Because in those markets you've got extraordinary inflation and you've got to make sure you price through to get the value up.

你知道，我們在歐洲的產品組合很大一部分是零卡路里；而在一些國家、一些地區表現不錯。另外也有一些地方，例如俄羅斯，我們更著重價值而不是銷量。因為在那些市場通膨非常驚人，你必須確保透過提價把價值做上去。

In France, Germany, Turkey we had very good beverage strength and in countries like Russia because of inflation the market was tough. But overall again I come back to this notion of the portfolio management.

在法國、德國、土耳其，我們的飲料業務表現非常強勁；而在像俄羅斯這樣因通膨影響的國家，市場則相當艱難。但整體而言，我再次回到「投資組合管理」這個概念。

In today's volatile environment the biggest capabilities we as a Company have to develop and we have is how we manage the portfolio intelligently to deliver a set of numbers for the Company overall. And again managing the Company for value share within a volume corridor. And that's what we've been doing globally at this point.

在當今波動的環境中，我們作為一家公司必須培養、也確實具備的最大能力，就是如何以智慧方式管理產品組合，以交出公司整體的一組數字。同時在一定的銷量區間內，以價值份額來管理公司。而這正是我們目前在全球所做的事情。

Ali Dibadj, Bernstein.

Ali Dibadj，Bernstein。

Hi, so I have two basic questions for you. One is when you look at the organic sales numbers there seems to be two things that are a little unexpected or weird. One is obviously that 33% Latin America pricing number and the second is the strong 3% volumes in NAB.

嗨，我有兩個基本問題想請教。第一個是，當你看有機銷售的數字時，似乎有兩點有些出乎意料或有點奇怪。一個顯然是拉丁美洲33%的定價（價格）數字，第二個是NAB強勁的3%銷量成長。

So on the former can you just give us a little bit more detail about where that comes from? Was that really all Venezuela, how much was Argentina and when you deconsolidate Venezuela what does that pricing specifically number look like if Venezuela isn't in there?

就前者而言，你能否再多提供一些細節，說明這個數字是從哪裡來的？那真的是全部來自委內瑞拉嗎，阿根廷占了多少？而當你把委內瑞拉去合併（deconsolidate）之後，如果不包含委內瑞拉，這個定價（價格）數字具體會是什麼樣子？

On the NAB good volume numbers it sounds like a lot of that was stills. Can you give us a breakdown on volume growth between stills and CSDs? So that's question one.

至於NAB不錯的銷量數字，聽起來其中很大一部分來自非碳酸（stills）。你能否提供一下銷量成長在非碳酸（stills）與碳酸飲料（CSDs）之間的拆分？這是第一個問題。

The second question --

第二個問題——

Let's get the question one answered. Go ahead.

先把第一個問題回答完。請繼續。

Ali, two things on that. Ex-Venezuela Latin America was up 9%. And number two, regarding your question on breakdown on volumes, the 3% of overall volume growth CSDs were down 1.9, non-carbs or stills as you call them were up almost 10%, and then within CSDs regulars were down 1% and diets were down 6.5%.

Ali，關於這點有兩個重點。扣除委內瑞拉後，拉丁美洲成長了9%。第二，關於你問的銷量拆分，整體銷量成長3%中，碳酸飲料（CSDs）下滑1.9%，你所稱的非碳酸或靜態飲料（non-carbs or stills）上升接近10%；而在CSDs內部，含糖（regular）下滑1%，低糖/無糖（diet）下滑6.5%。

Okay, so super helpful on that one. In terms of the second question I'd love to hear how you guys are thinking about the potential implications of ABI SAB to the PepsiCo business.

好的，這點非常有幫助。至於第二個問題，我很想聽聽你們如何看待ABI收購SAB對百事公司業務可能帶來的影響。

So PepsiCo obviously including the Brazil bottling what might happen there, how you guys are thinking about that in terms of your joint purchasing with ABI? This is no longer kind of rumor, speculation, so you guys have clearly done as you usually do good analytics, good math on thinking through the implications here for you guys.

百事公司顯然也包括巴西的裝瓶業務，那邊可能會發生什麼？你們如何思考這件事，尤其是你們與ABI的聯合採購方面？這已不再只是傳聞或猜測，所以你們顯然已像往常一樣做了很好的分析、很好的測算，來推演這對你們的影響。

Great question but we don't comment or speculate on these matters as they relate to specific bottlers, customers or suppliers.

問題很好，但對於涉及特定裝瓶商、客戶或供應商的事項，我們不予評論或推測。

Bill Schmitz, Deutsche Bank.

Bill Schmitz，德意志銀行。

Hi, good morning. A couple of questions on the US just to drill a little deeper on some previous questions.

嗨，早安。有幾個關於美國的問題，想針對先前的一些問題再深入一點。

Do you still think the US bottling assets are strategic long-term assets? And how far are you from having them fully optimized?

你們仍然認為美國的裝瓶資產是長期的策略性資產嗎？距離把它們完全優化，你們還差多遠？

Bill as I mentioned earlier on my comments regarding North American Beverages, today more than ever with the portfolio shifting to non-carbs, innovation is becoming more fragmented, and the lifecycle of innovation is being shorter and the trade becoming more and more complex, having control of the manufacturing and distribution system becomes critical. And when we have independent bottlers having them aligned is even more critical.

Bill，如我先前在談到北美飲料（NAB）時提到的，如今比以往任何時候都更是如此：隨著產品組合轉向非碳酸，創新變得更加分散，創新的生命週期也更短，通路（trade）也越來越複雜，因此掌控製造與配送系統變得至關重要。而當我們有獨立裝瓶商時，讓他們保持一致（aligned）就更為關鍵。

And I'll tell you based on our recent North American bottling meeting Al Carey and the team did a brilliant job and the system is more aligned than I've ever seen before. So I think these bottling assets are strategic and as I said earlier this is a journey.

我可以告訴你，根據我們最近一次北美裝瓶會議，Al Carey和團隊做得非常出色，整個系統的協同一致程度是我見過最高的。所以我認為這些裝瓶資產是策略性的，而且如我先前所說，這是一段旅程。

As the marketplace evolves, we have to keep evolving and optimizing our bottling assets. We've done a lot with manufacturing assets. As we mentioned we've taken out 23% of the capacity, utilization is up, we're looking at consolidating large format and small format routes and reducing the number of routes by 15%.

隨著市場環境演變，我們也必須持續演進並優化我們的裝瓶資產。我們在製造資產方面已做了很多。如我們提到的，我們已移除23%的產能，產能利用率提高；我們也在考慮整併大包裝與小包裝的配送路線，並將路線數量減少15%。

As the equivalent of GES or GeoBox as our beverage guys call it get implemented, we too will start thinking about different ways to leverage the distribution system. So it's a journey and it's a very, very good team and they're doing the right things to focus on revenue management, trade spending effectiveness, marketing, innovation, playing the portfolio, intelligent pricing. So I think we're in a good place in North American Beverages.

隨著相當於GES或我們飲料團隊所稱的GeoBox的方案逐步落地，我們也會開始思考以不同方式來槓桿化配送系統。所以這是一段旅程；團隊非常、非常優秀，他們正在做正確的事情，聚焦於收益管理、通路費用（trade spending）效益、行銷、創新、運用產品組合、智慧定價。因此我認為北美飲料目前處於良好狀態。

Kevin Grundy, Jefferies.

Kevin Grundy，Jefferies。

Good morning. Indra, so my question to come back to North America beverages, specifically carbonated soft drinks. So profit growth in NAB has been outstanding this year.

早安。Indra，我的問題回到北美飲料，特別是碳酸軟性飲料（CSDs）。今年NAB的利潤成長非常亮眼。

From a marketshare perspective, Indra you've often spoken in the past about managing that market share within a corridor. And as I look at the Nielsen data it looks like you guys have been losing share within CSDs not just on a four week, 12 week but over the past year.

從市占率角度，Indra，你過去常談到在一個區間內管理市占率。但我看尼爾森（Nielsen）數據，你們在CSDs的市占似乎不只是在4週、12週期間下滑，而是在過去一年也在流失。

And I'm just curious, number one if you're comfortable with the share position now or if at some point more investment is needed here whether that's innovation, whether this is trade spend, etc. So any comments there with respect to your carbonated soft drink trends here would be helpful. Thank you.

我想了解的是，第一，你是否對目前的市占位置感到安心？或是在某個時間點需要更多投資，不論是創新、通路費用（trade spend）等。因此，若能就你們碳酸軟性飲料的趨勢提供一些評論，會很有幫助。謝謝。

We're happy with where we are right now and the portfolio is working, Kevin. That's the most important thing. When the marketplace starts shifting more towards non-carbs, we've got to make sure that we step up our investment in non-carbs, our innovation in non-carbs, which is really what we've been doing.

我們對目前的位置感到滿意，而且產品組合正在發揮作用，Kevin。這是最重要的。當市場開始更多轉向非碳酸時，我們必須確保加大在非碳酸上的投資、非碳酸的創新，而這正是我們一直在做的。

And in the case of CSDs, there's been a small share loss but if you look across the portfolio Mountain Dew is doing exceedingly well. We're doing very well in small format.

至於CSDs，確實有小幅市占流失，但如果你看整個產品組合，Mountain Dew表現極為出色。我們在小包裝方面也做得很好。

And we are as I said earlier to the question I think that Judy or somebody asked, we have really been working the portfolio to make sure that channel management, price pack management, trade management, innovation management and overall portfolio management work to deliver overall LRB share increase and that's really what we're focused on. I think focusing just on CSDs is actually a thing of the past and I would strongly suggest everybody looks at total LRB because that's the right way to look at the market going forward.

而且如我先前回答我想是Judy或其他人提問時所說，我們確實一直在運用產品組合，確保通路管理、價格/包裝（price pack）管理、通路管理（trade management）、創新管理以及整體產品組合管理能夠協同運作，以帶動整體LRB市占提升，這才是我們的重點。我認為只聚焦在CSDs其實已是過去式；我強烈建議大家看整體LRB，因為這才是未來看待市場的正確方式。

Bill Marshall, Barclays.

Bill Marshall，Barclays。

Good morning. Thank you. Your last comment notwithstanding I do you have a question on carbonated soft drinks.

早安。謝謝。儘管你剛才最後的評論如此，我仍有一個關於碳酸軟性飲料的問題。

Just from a qualitative perspective obviously you've made the switch to aspartame free on diet Pepsi. So I'm just curious what the consumer reaction has been to the move?

就定性角度而言，很明顯你們已將健怡百事可樂改為不含阿斯巴甜。所以我只是好奇，消費者對這項變動的反應如何？

And then broadening that out into other sweetener technology and you've used Stevia in some cases, just where we should look at how this is developing and how the consumer is reacting to these new products? Thank you.

另外，把範圍擴大到其他甜味劑技術，你們在某些情況下使用了甜菊糖（Stevia），我們應該從哪些面向觀察這項發展，以及消費者對這些新產品的反應如何？謝謝。

You know, Bill, it's too early to tell you exactly how the consumer is reacting because our belief is that you've got to wait a few cycles to see what the purchase repeat adoption cycle is. So at the end of Q4, when we go into next year, we might be able to give you some more information, but at this point it's really too early to talk about how aspartame-free is performing in the marketplace.

你知道的，Bill，現在要精確告訴你消費者反應如何還太早，因為我們認為必須等幾個週期，看看重複購買／採用的循環表現。所以到第四季末、進入明年時，我們或許能提供更多資訊，但就目前而言，談論無阿斯巴甜產品在市場上的表現確實還太早。

In terms of new sweeteners, all the information is out there in the marketplace. We've been talking about it. I don't see a zero calorie naturally sweetened CSD on the horizon in the next few years.

至於新甜味劑，所有資訊在市場上都已經公開。我們也一直在談。我不認為未來幾年內會出現一款零卡、天然甜味的碳酸飲料（CSD）。

But if you want to talk about lower calorie naturally sweetened beverages; I think a combination of sweeteners, tools, techniques, we have probably the best portfolio of development tools to enable that to happen. It may not always be in CSDs but it will be part of it in non-carbs, part in CSDs and you will start seeing these innovations roll out as we speak. We've rolled out a couple of products this year in Manzanita Sol and Mug for some of these tools. You'll start seeing more of that as next year rolls by.

但如果你想談的是較低熱量、天然甜味的飲料；我認為透過甜味劑的組合、工具與技術，我們可能擁有最完整的開發工具組合來促成這件事。它不一定總是在碳酸飲料（CSD）上實現，但會有一部分在非碳酸飲料上、一部分在碳酸飲料上；而你也會從現在開始看到這些創新陸續推出。今年我們已在 Manzanita Sol 和 Mug 推出了幾項運用這些工具的產品。明年推進的過程中，你會看到更多。

Steve Powers, UBS.

UBS 的 Steve Powers。

Thanks. Good morning. So Frito-Lay volumes were a bit better than I think some investors feared they might be just based on some of the scanner data trends. So is there any light you can shine on that related to maybe sell-in versus sell-out timing or strength in outside the track channels, for example foodservice, that's my first question.

謝謝。早安。Frito-Lay 的銷量表現比一些投資人擔心的要好一些，這主要是基於部分掃描數據（scanner data）的趨勢。所以你能否就此提供一些說明，例如可能與出貨（sell-in）相對於終端銷售（sell-out）的時間差有關，或是非追蹤通路（outside the track channels）例如餐飲服務（foodservice）表現較強？這是我的第一個問題。

Then Indra, longer-term, picking up on your commentary surrounding productivity as you look forward over the next four years of your current program, how do you see that balance between efficiency and effectiveness contributing for the next $4 billion? Is it split, is it skewed one way or another?

接著，Indra，從長期來看，延續你對生產力（productivity）的評論，展望你們目前計畫未來四年的推進，你如何看待效率（efficiency）與效能（effectiveness）之間的平衡，對下一個 40 億美元的貢獻？是各半，還是偏向其中一方？

And then within the efficiency bucket do the drivers remain supply chain restructuring and Smart Spending or are there other initiatives on the horizon that we should be thinking about? Thanks.

另外，在效率這一塊，驅動因素是否仍以供應鏈重整與 Smart Spending 為主，或是還有其他我們應該關注的計畫正在醞釀？謝謝。

In fact I'm going to take the productivity question, I'm going to have Hugh talk about the Frito-Lay volume issue. I think on productivity going forward the next four years, again year by year it varies.

其實我會來回答生產力的問題，Frito-Lay 銷量的議題我請 Hugh 來談。我想談到未來四年的生產力，仍然是每一年都會有所不同。

As with all of these programs, you can measure the efficiency programs more directly on productivity. And the effectiveness you see it more on the top line and you see it in pricing. Because how you get the pricing is a function of how we implement all of the effectiveness programs.

就像所有這類計畫一樣，效率型計畫在生產力上的衡量會更直接。而效能則更多反映在營收端（top line），也會反映在定價上。因為能否取得定價成果，取決於我們如何落實所有效能型計畫。

So it's much harder to isolate the effectiveness part of productivity. But I will tell you the way we measure it is in top-line growth and the kind of pricing we get. So that's where it should manifest itself.

因此，要把生產力中的效能部分單獨拆解出來會困難得多。但我可以告訴你，我們衡量它的方式是看營收成長，以及我們能取得的定價水準。所以它應該會在那裡呈現出來。

And our algorithm is talking about mid-single-digit revenue growth. And given today's extremely turbulent environment, I think effectiveness-oriented productivity programs is what's going to allow us to deliver that mid-single-digit growth.

而我們的演算法（algorithm）所指向的是中個位數的營收成長。在當前極度動盪的環境下，我認為以效能為導向的生產力計畫，將是讓我們能交付這個中個位數成長的關鍵。

Let's talk about Frito-Lay volume. So, Hugh if you want to take that one.

我們來談談 Frito-Lay 的銷量。Hugh，如果你願意的話，請你回答這題。

Yes, Steve, happy to. Absolutely, we did see volumes at Frito-Lay a little bit stronger than I think what analysts were generally expecting and what they were interpolating based off of the scan data.

好的，Steve，很樂意。確實，我們看到 Frito-Lay 的銷量比分析師普遍預期、以及他們根據掃描數據推算的結果要強一些。

I think the reason for that is convenient stores were particularly strong in Frito-Lay. We saw volume growth in C stores for the quarter of 4.5% and that channel tends to be tracked a little bit less closely. It's about 20% of Frito's business, so I think that probably accounts for the data difference.

我認為原因在於便利商店通路（C stores）對 Frito-Lay 特別強勁。本季我們在便利商店通路的銷量成長為 4.5%，而這個通路通常追蹤得沒那麼密切。它約占 Frito 業務的 20%，所以我想這大概解釋了數據上的差異。

More broadly, I think the important point here is Project Drive, which has obviously suppressed volumes to some degree is going on very successfully. As Indra mentioned earlier from a revenue management perspective it's yielding the results we expected.

更廣泛來看，我認為這裡的重要重點是 Project Drive。這項計畫顯然在某種程度上壓抑了銷量，但推行得非常成功。如 Indra 先前提到，從營收管理（revenue management）的角度，它正在產出我們預期的成果。

And in addition to that and strategically more importantly, the household penetration on Lay's is going up. And frankly that was the goal of Project Drive and it is working quite successfully.

此外，從策略面來看更重要的是，Lay's 的家庭滲透率（household penetration）正在上升。坦白說，這正是 Project Drive 的目標，而且運作得相當成功。

Obviously we've got a couple more quarters of overlaps to work through in terms of volume impacts. But we feel very, very good about Project Drive right now.

當然，就銷量影響而言，我們還有幾個季度的重疊期需要消化。但我們目前對 Project Drive 的表現感到非常、非常滿意。

So with that thank you all for your questions. In closing let me reiterate that we are pleased with our year-to-date results. We are confident that our plans are working and that we will deliver on our financial targets for 2015.

那麼，感謝各位的提問。最後我想再次強調，我們對今年迄今的表現感到滿意。我們有信心我們的計畫正在奏效，並且我們將達成 2015 年的財務目標。

I want to thank you all for your time and questions this morning and more importantly for the confidence you've placed in us. Have a great day.

感謝各位今天早上撥冗與提問，更重要的是，感謝各位對我們的信任。祝各位有美好的一天。

Thank you. That does conclude PepsiCo's third-quarter 2015 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。百事公司 2015 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。