帕卡 (PCAR) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and thank you for holding. Good morning and welcome to Paccar's third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

各位好，感謝各位耐心等候。早安，歡迎參加 Paccar 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 今天的電話會議將被錄音，如有任何人反對，請此刻中斷連線。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, Paccar's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹 Paccar 投資人關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。Hastings 先生，請開始。

Thank you, Joel, and good morning, everyone. My name is Ken Hastings, Paccar's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Baney, President; and Brice Poplawski, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Joel，各位早安。我叫 Ken Hastings，是 Paccar 的投資人關係總監。今天早上與我一同出席的還有：執行長 Preston Feight；總裁 Kevin Baney；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccard.com.

如同以往的電話會議，我們請在線上的媒體朋友以僅收聽模式參與。今天所呈現的部分資訊屬於前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能影響預期結果的風險與不確定性。如需更多資訊，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及 paccar.com 的投資人關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹 Preston Feight。

Thank you, Ken, and good morning, everyone. Kevin, Brice, Ken and I will update you on Paccar's excellent third quarter financial results and business highlights. I'd like to start by thanking our wonderful employees all around the world who did a fantastic job of providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry.

謝謝你，Ken，各位早安。Kevin、Brice、Ken 和我將向各位更新 Paccar 優異的第三季財務成果與業務重點。首先，我要感謝全球各地優秀的員工，他們出色地為客戶提供業界最高品質的卡車與運輸解決方案。

Paccar delivered excellent revenues of $7.94 billion and net income of $847.5 million in the third quarter. This is 19% revenue growth and 44% profit growth compared to the same period last year. Paccar Parts had record quarterly revenues of $1.78 billion and Paccar Financial Services $138 million in profit was an increase of 9.4% compared to the same period last year.

Paccar 第三季繳出優異表現，營收達 79.4 億美元，淨利為 8.475 億美元。與去年同期相比，營收成長 19%，獲利成長 44%。Paccar Parts 第三季零件營收創下單季新高，達 17.8 億美元；Paccar Financial Services 獲利為 1.38 億美元，較去年同期增加 9.4%。

We estimate this year's US and Canadian Class 8 markets to be in a range of 240,000 to 260,000 trucks and next year to grow and be in a range of 240,000 to 280,000. The US and Canadian truck market is being driven by economic growth, continued investments in infrastructure and the general freight market recovery.

我們估計今年美國與加拿大 Class 8 市場規模約在 24 萬至 26 萬輛之間，明年將成長至 24 萬至 28 萬輛的區間。美加卡車市場的動能來自經濟成長、基礎建設持續投資，以及整體貨運市場復甦。

In Europe, we project this year's above 16-tonne market to be in a range of 300,000 to 320,000 units and in a similar range for 2027. This represents continued truck replacement in a region with steady economic growth. We estimate this year's South American above 16-tonne truck market to be in the range of 100,000 to 105,000 vehicles and next year to be up slightly and in the range of 105,000 to 115,000 trucks.

在歐洲，我們預估今年 16 噸以上市場規模約在 30 萬至 32 萬輛之間，2027 年也將維持在相近區間。這反映在經濟穩健成長的地區，卡車汰換需求持續。我們估計今年南美 16 噸以上卡車市場約在 10 萬至 10.5 萬輛之間，明年將小幅上升至 10.5 萬至 11.5 萬輛。

Paccar's premium trucks are performing very well for customers throughout all of Latin America. Based on strong customer orders, Paccar increased deliveries to 40,100 trucks in the third quarter. Delivery volume will increase in the fourth quarter as suppliers become more able to ramp up their production to meet continued strong customer demand.

Paccar 的高階卡車在整個拉丁美洲都為客戶帶來非常出色的表現。在強勁客戶訂單帶動下，Paccar 第三季交車量提升至 40,100 輛。隨著供應商更能提升產能以滿足持續強勁的客戶需求，第四季交車量將進一步增加。

Fourth quarter deliveries are anticipated to increase and be in the range of 41,000 to 43,000. Paccar's third quarter trucks, part and other gross margins were a strong 14.5%. Fourth quarter gross margins should remain high and again be in the range of 14% to 15%. We look forward to a strong finish to this year and another very good year in 2027 as our customers benefit from Paccar's excellent trucks and new transportation solutions.

預期第四季交車量將增加，落在 41,000 至 43,000 輛的區間。Paccar 第三季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率強勁，達 14.5%。第四季毛利率應可維持高檔，預計仍在 14% 至 15% 的區間。我們期待今年強勁收尾，並在 2027 年再創佳績，讓客戶持續受惠於 Paccar 優異的卡車與全新運輸解決方案。

Kevin Baney will now provide an update on Paccar Parts, Financial Services and other business highlights.

接下來由 Kevin Baney 更新 Paccar Parts、金融服務及其他業務重點。

Thank you, Preston. Paccar Parts achieved record third quarter revenue of $1.78 billion. This record is a result of investments in parts distribution, growth of the TRP Allmakes brand, expanding transportation solutions and increasing dealer retail locations. We anticipate continued growth in the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，Preston。Paccar Parts 第三季營收創下紀錄，達 17.8 億美元。這項紀錄來自於我們在零件配送上的投資、TRP Allmakes 品牌成長、運輸解決方案擴展，以及經銷商零售據點增加。我們預期第四季將持續成長。

Paccar financial services pre-tax income was a robust $138 million with 9.4% year-over-year growth. These excellent results reflect stable finance margins and higher used truck pricing. Similar to Paccar Parts, Paccar Financial provides steady foundational profitability during all phases of the business cycle.

Paccar 金融服務稅前盈餘強勁，達 1.38 億美元，年增 9.4%。這些優異成果反映融資利差穩定以及二手卡車價格走高。與 Paccar Parts 類似，Paccar Financial 在景氣循環的各個階段都能提供穩健的基礎獲利能力。

Last week at the American Trucking Association's Truck Conference, Paccar proudly introduced its next-generation transportation solutions platform called Paccar Connect. This system provides a state-of-the-art technology platform in a beautifully integrated vehicle display.

上週在美國卡車運輸協會（American Trucking Association）的卡車大會上，Paccar 自豪地推出其下一代運輸解決方案平台，名為 Paccar Connect。該系統在美觀且高度整合的車載顯示介面中，提供最先進的技術平台。

Paccar Connect has the ability to bring together fleet telematics systems, Paccar truck data, customer-specific productivity applications, Apple CarPlay and electronic driver logs into a fully integrated system. This system will serve as a unifying platform that will enhance customer productivity and create new revenue streams for Paccar.

Paccar Connect 能將車隊車聯網（telematics）系統、Paccar 卡車數據、客戶專屬生產力應用程式、Apple CarPlay 與電子駕駛日誌整合為一套完整的整合式系統。此系統將作為統一平台，提升客戶生產力，並為 Paccar 創造新的營收來源。

This year's capital expenditures are projected to be between $650 million and $700 million and research and development expenses will be $440 million to $460 million. In 2027, we estimate the company will invest $650 million to $700 million in capital projects and $460 million to $500 million in research and development expenses.

今年資本支出預估介於 6.5 億至 7 億美元之間，研發費用將為 4.4 億至 4.6 億美元。在 2027 年，我們估計公司將在資本專案上投資 6.5 億至 7 億美元，研發費用為 4.6 億至 5 億美元。

Key technology and innovation investments include next-generation clean diesel, hybrid and battery electric powertrain, growing the parts business, enhancing manufacturing capabilities and expanding the connected vehicle offerings. Paccar's industry-leading trucks, best-in-class parts and financial services businesses and advanced technology strategy position the company for an excellent future.

關鍵技術與創新投資包括：下一代潔淨柴油、油電混合與純電動動力系統、擴大零件業務、強化製造能力，以及擴展車聯網（connected vehicle）產品與服務。Paccar 業界領先的卡車、同級最佳的零件與金融服務事業，以及先進技術策略，使公司具備極佳的未來發展定位。

We are pleased to answer your questions.

我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

現在開始問答環節。(接線員指示)

Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

Steve Volkmann，Jefferies。

Great. Thank you, guys. Good morning.

很好。謝謝各位。早安。

Good morning, Steve.

早安，Steve。

So a couple of quick ones here for me and I'll pass it on. One, I think you mentioned that you expected sort of supply chain to kind of catch up and I think your deliveries this quarter might have been slightly less than what you had projected. Are you seeing supply chain constraints that are limiting that or was that just kind of normal variability?

我這邊有幾個簡短問題，問完我就交給下一位。第一個，我想你們提到供應鏈應該會逐步追上需求，而我認為你們本季交車量可能略低於先前預估。你們是否看到供應鏈限制導致交車受限，還是只是正常的波動？

Yeah, Steve, that's a nice observation. Our deliveries in the third quarter, 40,100 were somewhat affected by supply constraints. And as we and others are building more trucks, I think the suppliers are trying to get up to speed on that. And so that's kind of what affected Q3 and what we think is improving in Q4 with the guide to 41,000 to 43,000 trucks. But we're working closely with our suppliers to make sure they get the parts to us and we can build trucks, makes it a lot easier to build the trucks when we got the parts.

是的，Steve，你觀察得很好。我們第三季交車 40,100 輛，確實在某種程度上受到供應限制影響。隨著我們和其他業者都在增加卡車產量，我認為供應商也在努力跟上節奏。因此這就是影響第三季的因素，而我們認為第四季會改善，並給出 41,000 到 43,000 輛的指引。不過我們正與供應商密切合作，確保他們能把零件供應給我們、讓我們能夠生產卡車；當我們拿到零件時，生產卡車就容易得多。

Okay, that makes sense. And then the second one, I'm curious how you're sort of thinking about or how you're even interacting with customers relative to '27 now, because I'm imagining -- but please correct me if I'm wrong, that it's actually hard to sort of price trucks for '27 when we don't know the NCPs yet.

好的，這樣就說得通了。然後第二點，我很好奇你們現在是如何看待、或甚至如何與客戶互動來談 2027 年的，因為我在想——但如果我錯了請糾正我——在我們還不知道 NCP 之前，其實很難去為 2027 年的卡車定價。

And so that probably makes it hard to take orders. Are you taking orders for '27? And if so, can you provide any color as to sort of what people are actually ordering relative to engine?

所以這大概也會讓接單變得困難。你們有在接 2027 年的訂單嗎？如果有，能否提供一些資訊，說明大家實際上下單時在引擎配置方面是怎麼選的？

Hey Steve, that's great. So we made the observation of it's easier to build trucks if you got parts and it's easier to price trucks if you know the cost. And I think that the government's doing a very nice job actually of looking at the 2027 emissions regulations and figure out how they should -- are able to set the NCP levels. As you noted, they're not finalized yet. And I think that does give some customers pause about what their price will be. So we've had excellent discussions with our customers, we've known them for many years.

嗨，Steve，這個問題很好。所以我們的觀察是：有零件就比較容易造車；知道成本就比較容易為卡車定價。而我認為政府其實在檢視 2027 年排放法規、並思考如何——以及能如何——設定 NCP 水準這件事上做得很好。如你所說，目前還沒有定案。我想這確實會讓一些客戶對最終價格有所顧慮。不過我們和客戶的討論非常順利，我們也和他們合作很多年了。

And ATA was a great opportunity to sit with a lot of them and talk about what their needs are for 2027. And I think they feel everyone we met with feels like they would like to keep buying the 200-milligram engines, so they have time to prove out the technology of the new engines, the lower NOx engines. And so I think they are starting to place their orders. We're seeing good inquiry and increasing order intake, but obviously that will likely increase as we have certainty around NCPs.

而 ATA 是一個很好的機會，讓我們能和很多客戶坐下來談，了解他們對 2027 年的需求。我想我們見到的每一位客戶都覺得，他們希望能繼續購買 200 毫克的引擎，這樣他們就有時間去驗證新引擎、也就是更低 NOx 引擎的技術。因此我認為他們已經開始下單了。我們看到詢問度不錯、接單量也在增加，但很明顯，一旦 NCP 更確定，這個趨勢很可能會更明顯。

Understood. Thank you so much.

了解。非常感謝。

Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.

Jerry Revich，富國銀行。

Yes, hi, good morning, good afternoon, everyone. I'm wondering if you could just talk about the lead indicators that you're tracking for the Parts business. What do you expect the outlook to be over the next couple of quarters normally? You folks have some visibility a couple of quarters out, given contract rates are moving higher. I wonder if you could just give an update on how you're thinking about the cadence?

是的，嗨，各位早安、午安。我想請你們談談你們在零件業務上追蹤的領先指標。通常你們對未來幾季的展望會是什麼？考量到合約運價正在走高，你們應該能提前看到未來幾季的一些能見度。想請你們更新一下，你們對節奏（cadence）的看法是如何？

Jerry, this is Kevin. As we look at the Parts business. Right now in a smaller Parts market, team has done a great job increasing volume growing share, share is one of those things that we measure and right now with customers have elevated operating costs, they've got higher diesel prices, they've got an increased number of unseated trucks.

Jerry，我是 Kevin。就零件業務來看，目前在較小的零件市場中，團隊在提升出貨量、擴大市占方面做得非常好；市占是我們衡量的指標之一。而現在客戶的營運成本偏高，他們面臨較高的柴油價格，且有更多未配置駕駛的卡車（unseated trucks）。

And so they're focused on really required maintenance at this point and so we spend a lot of time working with them. One of our key things we look at is our share of wallet with our customers and we've been able to grow share and increase while they're at elevated cost and as things return to more normal conditions for them, we anticipate to keep growing.

因此他們目前更專注在真正必要的維修保養上，所以我們花了很多時間與他們合作。我們關注的一個關鍵點是客戶在我們這裡的錢包份額（share of wallet），而我們已能在他們成本高企的情況下擴大份額並提升；當他們的狀況回到較正常的水準時，我們預期仍能持續成長。

And when do you think that will be based on what you're hearing, do you expect an acceleration exiting the fourth quarter or is it possible to get a sense, Kevin?

那依你聽到的情況，你覺得那會在什麼時候發生？你預期在第四季末會加速嗎？還是有可能給我們一些方向感，Kevin？

Yeah, we anticipate continued growth in the fourth quarter and we have been able to grow share and so that's a key metric for us. Really provide ease of doing business with our customers and so we continue to grow the revenue with them, gain share and anticipate that to continue.

是的，我們預期第四季會持續成長，而且我們也一直在擴大市占，所以這對我們來說是個關鍵指標。我們真正要做的是讓客戶更容易與我們做生意，因此我們持續提升與他們的營收、取得市占，並預期這會延續下去。

Super. And can I ask the margin outlook, 14% to 15% for the fourth quarter. What we're hearing is really good pricing for fourth quarter delivery slots and a sequential improvement from third quarter pricing. So does the margin outlook embed some of the uncertainty on the parts side versus improved profit per unit on the truck side? Or can we just unpack the push and the pull there, if you don't mind?

很好。我想再問一下毛利率展望，第四季是 14% 到 15%。我們聽到的是，第四季交付時段（delivery slots）的定價非常好，而且相較第三季定價還有季增改善。所以這個毛利率展望是否納入了零件端的一些不確定性，而不是卡車端單位獲利改善？或者如果方便的話，能否幫我們拆解一下其中的拉力與推力？

Yeah, sure. I think a simpler way to think about it is, when we're building trucks and we have to deliver or build them without all the parts, there's a cost adder in that. So it has some impact to price cost in the quarter as we think it might occur. Obviously, we're doing everything we can to minimize that. I think the parts team is, as Kevin said, doing a great job of getting the market share gains margin growth, so we feel positive about how they're doing.

好的，當然。我想比較簡單的理解方式是：當我們在造車時，如果必須在零件不齊的情況下交車或生產，這會帶來額外成本。因此，這會在我們預期可能發生的情況下，對當季的價格/成本造成一些影響。當然，我們正盡一切努力把這種影響降到最低。我認為零件團隊如 Kevin 所說，在取得市占提升與毛利成長方面做得非常好，所以我們對他們的表現感到正面。

And then I think as we look at our pricing power, it has been good with our customers. There is a strong demand for the 200-milligram engines, which we think carries into 2027 as well. So it feels pretty positive from that standpoint. It's really just about those efficiencies that we'd to deal with in the fourth quarter. And I think the other part of it is, it's always a function of there's a lag factor between pricing a truck and your backlog, and so that sits into the factors as well.

另外，從我們的定價能力來看，與客戶之間一直都不錯。市場對 200 毫克引擎的需求很強，我們認為這也會延續到 2027 年。所以從這個角度看起來相當正面。真正的重點在於第四季我們需要處理的那些效率問題。還有另一部分是，卡車定價與在手訂單（backlog）之間一向存在時間落差，這也會納入考量因素。

I appreciate the discussion. Thank you.

很感謝這些說明。謝謝。

Great. Good talking to you, Jerry.

很好。Jerry，很高興和你交流。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

Tami Zakaria，摩根大通。

Hey, good afternoon. Thank you so much. I'll ask one question today. So I heard you comment about some delays in how customers are trying to -- or there's delays in how they're trying to decide what to order next year. But as you are part of those discussions, are you getting a sense that customers are looking to buy the non-compliant engines and planning to pay a penalty on it? Or is there willingness to adopt a compliant platform, even if it comes at a higher cost? So any color on which you guys from customers are leaning toward at the moment?

嗨，午安。非常感謝。我今天問一個問題。我聽到你提到，客戶在決定明年要下什麼訂單方面有一些延遲——或是他們在做決策時出現延宕。但當你們參與這些討論時，你們是否感覺到客戶想要購買不合規的引擎，並打算為此支付罰金？或者他們是否願意採用合規的平台，即使成本更高？所以想請你們分享一些目前客戶傾向哪一邊的資訊。

I think one of the things I'd start with -- Tami -- is to say that. We have very good visibility right now. Obviously, the year is full and we're filling the first quarter, so that's a pretty positive position to begin with. I think the customers are beginning to order, but it's just the beginning of that when they would expect the fleets to be thinking about their capital allocations for next year. So that's kind of a part one of your commentary.

Tami，我想先從一點開始——就是說：我們目前的能見度非常好。很明顯，今年的產能已經滿了，我們也正在填補第一季，所以一開始我們就處在相當正面的狀態。我認為客戶正開始下單，但這只是剛開始，因為車隊通常會在這個時點開始思考明年的資本配置。所以這是你提到的第一部分。

And then I would share, and we've said this a lot, is like we have not met with a customer. So every customer we meet with is much more interested in proven stable technology that they've had time to vet in their operations. And so they're asking for us to deliver to them trucks with the 200-milligram and an NCP because that makes their operation smoother compared to introducing new technology from any manufacturer that they haven't had enough time with. And so that's kind of where the world sits right now.

另外我也想分享——而且我們已經多次提過——我們沒有遇過任何一位客戶是這樣的。我們見到的每一位客戶，都更在意已被驗證、穩定的技術，而且他們已經有時間在自身營運中進行評估。因此他們要求我們交付搭載 200 毫克引擎並配有 NCP 的卡車，因為相較於導入任何一家製造商、他們還沒有足夠時間驗證的新技術，這樣能讓他們的營運更順暢。所以目前整體情況大致就是如此。

Understood. Thank you.

了解。謝謝。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Thank you. I think Kevin mentioned half a dozen things that could affect parts margin, which was down a little bit year-over-year this quarter from mix to maybe people delaying some purchases to investments. I wonder if you could just break that down and is there any kind of price competition that's led to lower margin or is it other factors?

謝謝。我想 Kevin 提到了大概半打可能影響零件毛利率的因素；本季零件毛利率年比年略有下滑，可能是產品組合、也可能是有人延後部分採購以配合投資等。我想請你把這些因素拆解一下：是否有任何價格競爭導致毛利率下降，還是其他因素？

Rob, it's just primarily mixed right now due to the elevated operating costs that we see with the customers. We've got great trucks with a lot of proprietary content, the engine business, I mentioned the Connect. So really see as the customers operating conditions improve, we see a nice balance of that mix back between all mix and proprietary.

Rob，主要是目前的產品組合影響，因為我們看到客戶端的營運成本偏高。我們有很棒的卡車，包含大量自有專屬內容；還有引擎業務，我也提到 Connect。所以我們確實認為，隨著客戶營運狀況改善，產品組合在「整體組合」與「自有專屬」之間會回到更好的平衡。

And Rob, I'd add on what Kevin said and echoed in different ways. Think about the way the enforcement of CDLs went in 2026 and they pulled a lot of trucks out of service. So if the trucks pulled out of service and they're sitting against the wall, if you will, then that means that there's less miles driven on some of those newer trucks. So it's just postponing parts purchases. We think that will come back, obviously, and that's kind of what Kevin said with high fuel prices being the other factor.

Rob，我補充 Kevin 的說法，也用不同方式呼應一下。想想 2026 年對 CDL（商業駕照）的執法方式，確實讓很多卡車被迫停駛。所以如果卡車被停駛、就像你說的靠牆放著，那就代表一些較新的卡車行駛里程變少。因此只是延後了零件採購。我們認為這些需求會回來，當然，另外一個因素就是 Kevin 提到的高油價。

That's just kind of the way the market is running, and I'm so pleased with what the team's been able to do in terms of growing the parts business in a market which is kind of constrained. So they've done a really nice job in that factor.

這就是市場目前的運作方式；而我對團隊能在一個相對受限的市場中仍把零件業務做成長，感到非常滿意。他們在這方面做得非常好。

Alright. And if I may sneak in another one, you mentioned a couple of times the launch of Paccar Connect and potentially even new revenue streams that might come out of it. But what are the biggest kind of pain points, whatever you want to call it, that your customers feeling that might be solved by this and how does that evolve over time? I'll stop there.

好的。如果我可以再偷偷問一題，你們提到幾次 Paccar Connect 的推出，甚至可能帶來新的營收來源。但客戶目前感受到的最大痛點（不管你想怎麼稱呼）是什麼，這個方案能解決哪些問題？以及它會如何隨時間演進？我先問到這裡。

Yeah. Thanks, Rob. Great question. We're really excited about this. The product is really cool. I don't know if you had a chance to see it, but if you get in one of the new Peterbilt or Kenworth trucks with the integrated system, I mean, what you end up with in today's world is people install third-party telematic systems into their truck, which requires getting into the dash, cutting things, installing hardware, and this eliminates the need to do that.

好的，謝謝 Rob。問題很好。我們對此非常興奮。這個產品真的很酷。我不知道你是否有機會看過，但如果你坐進配備整合式系統的新款 Peterbilt 或 Kenworth 卡車，你會發現，在現今的世界裡，人們會在卡車上安裝第三方車聯網（telematics）系統，這需要拆進儀表台、剪線、安裝硬體，而這套系統可以免去這些需求。

So step one is it gives us Paccar an opportunity on a hardware side because now we're doing that work for the customer in a much more integrated factory direct manner. So they're all going to be excited about that. We hear that from them.

所以第一步，它在硬體端為我們 Paccar 帶來機會，因為現在我們以更整合、由原廠直接提供的方式替客戶完成這些工作。所以他們都會對此感到興奮。我們也從他們那裡聽到這樣的回饋。

And then you think they get the choice of the telematics system they want to put in as we're doing this as an open source system, kind of like you can akin it to an iOS on your phone. An operating system on your phone where you can add applications that can be bespoke to a customer, specific to a customer, or they can be Paccar applications, and those applications can be revenue accretive for Paccar. They're also really beneficial to our customers.

接著你會想到，客戶可以選擇他們想要導入的車聯網系統，因為我們把它做成開放式系統，有點像你手機上的 iOS。也就是手機上的作業系統，你可以加入應用程式；這些應用程式可以是為某個客戶量身打造、針對特定客戶的，也可以是 Paccar 的應用程式，而這些應用程式能為 Paccar 帶來增益性的營收。同時，它們對我們的客戶也非常有幫助。

You think about how it builds into the parts business in the future, as we understand what the truck is doing, it gives us the opportunity to do predictive maintenance on the truck or direct it towards our dealerships, so integrating our businesses with our customers in a way that's beneficial over their profitability and ours, feels like just an exciting time.

再想想它未來如何帶動零件業務：當我們了解卡車在做什麼時，就有機會對卡車做預測性維護，或把它導向我們的經銷商體系，讓我們的業務與客戶以一種對他們的獲利與我們的獲利都有利的方式整合起來；這確實是個令人振奮的時刻。

I'll just add to it allows us to stay connected longer with the customer through their operating cycle. And so ease of doing business around the parts business will really help.

我再補充一點：它讓我們能在客戶的營運週期中，與客戶維持更長時間的連結。因此，在零件業務方面「更容易做生意」將會非常有幫助。

Lewis Merrick, BNP Paribas.

Lewis Merrick，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

Yeah, good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question, just one from my side.

是的，各位早安。謝謝讓我提問，我這邊只有一個問題。

A quick one on tariffs. Are you able to confirm that we're still some one-off benefit from tariffs during the quarter? If so, how much should we expect there to be further one-off benefit coming in 4Q? And is 1Q then the point where we sort of get to a clean sort of point from a tariff perspective?

關於關稅的簡短問題。你們能否確認，本季我們仍有一些來自關稅的一次性利益？如果有的話，第四季還會有多少進一步的一次性利益？那第一季是否就是我們在關稅面能回到比較乾淨、比較可比的狀態的時間點？

Lewis, what we've seen is there have been the tariffs have gotten a little more stable, we've still seen tariff costs that we incur as we're importing, we said some benefits as well, but it's really not been material to the results of our performance and so it's just kind of in the mix.

Lewis，我們看到的是關稅已經稍微更穩定一些；我們在進口時仍會發生一些關稅成本，我們也提到有一些利益，但對我們的經營表現結果而言並不重大，所以大致上就是在整體組合裡。

So just to be clear, there wasn't any sort of one-off benefit in 3Q?

所以確認一下，第三季並沒有任何一次性的利益？

No, it's kind of like it just it's continuing as we sort through the tariff process and work with the suppliers and work with the government and try to get clarification on it.

沒有，就像是我們在梳理關稅流程、與供應商合作、與政府溝通並嘗試釐清相關規定的過程中，它就持續存在。

Yeah, this is, Brice. A comparable -- I think we mentioned in the second quarter as well during the call, comparable kind of activity.

是的，我是 Brice。類似的——我想我們在第二季的電話會議中也提過，屬於可比的那種活動。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

Hi, thank you for the time. You used to speak to gross margins as the third quarter guide and then further increases in the fourth quarter. Just so we're clear, the change in now the third to fourth quarter gross margins are more flattish as a base case. Is that more because the truck margins aren't going to grow sequentially the way you would have thought due to the supplier-related inefficiencies or is it also related to the parts margins being less than you thought? Then I just had a quick follow-up on truck margins more broadly.

嗨，謝謝撥冗。你們過去會談到第三季指引的毛利率，並且提到第四季會進一步提升。為了確認清楚，目前第三季到第四季的毛利率變動，在基本情境下更偏向持平。這主要是因為卡車毛利率不會像你原先想的那樣按季成長、原因在於供應商相關的低效率？還是也與零件毛利率低於你原先預期有關？然後我還有一個關於卡車毛利率更廣泛的追問。

Yeah, David, good to talk to you. I would say that your first comment is more accurate than your second comment, and that it's just the cost of production right now is having some impact. We are seeing great truck pricing, but it is just that uncertainty there.

是的，David，很高興跟你交流。我會說你的第一個說法比第二個更貼近實情；也就是目前的生產成本確實帶來一些影響。我們看到卡車定價非常好，但不確定性仍在。

That's why I wanted to back into the second question. So the profitability per truck was the highest since the fourth quarter '24, and you did it with 3,800 less trucks delivered, right? So it appears very impressive. You did have more US-Canada mix this quarter than back then. Price cost was negative back then. I'm not sure if you commented if price cost was still positive this quarter like last, so maybe you can confirm that.

這也是我想接著問第二個問題的原因。單車獲利是自 24 年第四季以來最高，而你們是在交付量少了 3,800 輛的情況下做到的，對吧？所以看起來非常亮眼。本季美國-加拿大的組合占比也比當時更高。當時的價格/成本（price cost）是負的。我不確定你們是否有評論本季的價格/成本是否仍像上一季一樣為正，所以也許你可以確認一下。

But I think we're all just trying to level set. All right, maybe the supplier issue doesn't extend it to '27, but what do I do with the fourth quarter margin as a launchpad thinking about '27? I know there's a lot in there with penalty revenues on the trucks in '27 and how that dampens the margin. But again, just trying to think through this margin performance and how to think about the fourth quarter launch for '27 thoughts. Thank you.

但我想我們都只是想把基準釐清。好吧，也許供應商問題不會延續到 27 年，但我該如何看待第四季的毛利率，作為思考 27 年的起跳點？我知道裡面有很多因素，例如 27 年卡車上的罰款收入（penalty revenues）以及它如何壓抑毛利率。但再次強調，只是想把這個毛利率表現想清楚，以及如何把第四季當作 27 年的起點來思考。謝謝。

David, like usual, you give these great questions. It's fun to talk with you. And you bring up a very important point -- is if you think back at just a year ago in September of 2025, net income was $590 million, and this quarter it's $847 million. So the teams have just done a fantastic job each quarter increasing total profitability. And they've done that through truck pricing and through disciplined operating performance like Paccar always does. And it sets us up really well for the future, puts us in a very strong position to look forward into things.

David，一如往常，你提出了很棒的問題。和你交流很愉快。而且你提到了一個非常重要的點——如果你回想僅僅一年前、也就是2025年9月，淨利是5.90億美元，而本季是8.47億美元。所以團隊在每一季提升整體獲利能力方面都做得非常出色。他們是透過卡車定價，以及像Paccar一貫採取的嚴謹營運表現來做到的。這讓我們為未來做好了很好的準備，使我們處於非常有利的位置去展望接下來的發展。

Obviously, the more stable the market is and the more clean the production costs are, the easier it gets for us. I think you asked or you mentioned, which I think was kind of an ask about price cost and price cost remain favorable in the quarter.

顯然，市場越穩定、生產成本越乾淨透明，對我們就越容易。我想你問到或提到的——我理解你是在問價差（price-cost）——本季價差仍然是有利的。

And it was mostly due on the price side, the favorable price realization we're getting on our truck price.

而這主要是來自價格端，也就是我們在卡車售價上取得的有利價格實現（price realization）。

I guess I asked the question without asking you for guidance for '27 truck margin. Would you look at this fourth quarter then. With, again, the drag of maybe pass-through revenues with not much margin on the penalty, but assuming less supplier issues, just how would you want us to think about '27 truck margins versus this third/fourth quarter kind of run rate?

我想我是在不直接要你給出2027年卡車毛利率指引的情況下問了這個問題。你會怎麼看第四季呢？在同樣可能受到一些轉嫁型收入（pass-through revenues）拖累、罰款部分幾乎沒有毛利的情況下，但假設供應商問題減少，你希望我們如何思考2027年卡車毛利率相對於第三／第四季這種運行水準（run rate）？

Yeah, great. That's a great way to think about it. If you think about 2027, we're calling the market up and we're doing that without having the certainty of what the cost structure will be in 2027, which means we're pretty bullish, we remain in our bullish position on 2027.

是的，很好。這是個很好的思考方式。如果你看2027年，我們對市場的判斷是上行的，而我們在做這個判斷時，並沒有對2027年的成本結構有完全的確定性，這也表示我們相當看多；我們對2027年的看多立場仍然不變。

We think that any of the uncertainty will show up in the first part of the year and then clarity will be through the second, third, fourth quarter. And then as we get toward the end of the year, we would expect it to even strengthen. So I think our general sense is the uncertainty will dissipate and the market will become stronger as the year passes.

我們認為任何不確定性會在上半年顯現，然後在第二、第三、第四季逐步明朗。而且當接近年底時，我們預期還會進一步走強。所以我們的整體感覺是：不確定性會逐漸消散，市場會隨著時間推進而變得更強。

Okay. I appreciate the time.

好的。感謝你撥冗。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

Bernstein的Chad Dillard。

So I want to go back to the parts business. Can you update us on what the outlook is for '26?

我想回到零件業務。你能更新一下對2026年的展望嗎？

And then I think you talked about seeing some outgrowth and I recall from the investor day, you talked about $3.5 billion parts opportunity. Just any color on just how fast you're outgrowing and where you're tracking versus that goal?

另外我想你提到看到一些超越市場的成長（outgrowth），我也記得在投資人日你們談到35億美元的零件機會。能否補充一些資訊：你們超越市場成長的速度有多快，以及相對於那個目標目前進度如何？

Yeah, Chad, this is Kevin. So outlook for '26, I mentioned the continued growth in the fourth quarter, and we'll finish within the range that we forecasted the 3% to 5% we'd given previously. Outlook for next year is continued growth. We see -- as we watch customers operating conditions, as Preston mentioned, we forecast the market increase, we've got the connected platform out there and we see the continued growth we mentioned in the Investor Day, the opportunity with the second owner, we mentioned the parts market down, some of the growth that we've seen with our record revenue has come from growth in the second market. And so we've grown with our fleet services program, and then we've also grown the percent of our TRP in all makes, and a portion of that comes from the second owner.

好的，Chad，我是Kevin。關於2026年的展望，我提到第四季會持續成長，而全年會落在我們先前給出的3%到5%的預測區間內。對明年的展望是持續成長。我們看到——隨著我們觀察客戶的營運狀況，如Preston所提到的，我們預測市場會增加；我們也已推出互聯平台（connected platform），並看到我們在投資人日提到的持續成長，包括第二任車主（second owner）的機會；我們提到零件市場下行，但我們創紀錄營收的一部分成長來自二級市場（second market）的成長。因此，我們透過車隊服務計畫（fleet services program）實現成長，同時也提升了我們TRP全品牌（all makes）的占比，而其中一部分來自第二任車主。

That's helpful. And then in your North America guidance for '27, it implies about a 4% increase at the midpoint. I was hoping you could break down how are you thinking about the vocational versus tractor market as we go into next year?

這很有幫助。另外，在你們對2027年北美的指引中，中位數大約意味著成長4%。我想請你拆解一下：展望明年時，你們如何看待工程／專用車（vocational）市場相對於牽引車（tractor）市場？

Kind of look at the markets and think that we have really run below replacement demand on the fleets. I think that they have had some relief from that because of the driver situation, but they recognize the high performance, great fuel economy, low operating costs and driver appeal of new trucks. So I think they're very interested in getting new trucks. And are starting down that pathway.

我們看市場時認為，車隊的需求其實長期低於汰換需求（replacement demand）。我想由於駕駛人力的情況，他們在這方面得到了一些緩解，但他們也認知到新卡車的高性能、優異油耗、低營運成本以及對駕駛的吸引力。所以我認為他們非常有興趣購買新卡車。而且正開始走上那條路。

And then I think that the general infrastructure investments that are happening in America are very good for the vocational market for the coming years. And since we're the leader in the vocational market with our 40% share there, we think that bodes well for us also because those are good trucks for us to sell.

另外，我認為美國正在進行的整體基礎建設投資，對未來幾年的工程／專用車市場非常有利。而且由於我們在工程／專用車市場以40%的市占率居於領先地位，我們認為這對我們也很有利，因為那是我們很適合銷售的車型。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

Citigroup的Kyle Menges。

I just wanted to follow-up on Chad's Parts question. And I think if I heard you correctly, you're still thinking that parts growth can be in the range of 3% to 5% for the full year. So I think that would imply parts growth of around high single-digits in the fourth quarter versus you've been tracking in the low singles through the first nine months of this year. So what did you confidence in that high single-digit growth in the fourth quarter.

我想延續Chad關於零件的問題追問一下。如果我沒聽錯的話，你們仍認為全年零件成長可以落在3%到5%的區間。那這似乎意味著第四季零件成長大約會是高個位數（high single-digits），而今年前九個月你們的趨勢大概是低個位數（low singles）。那是什麼讓你們對第四季高個位數成長有信心？

I'd say we have a great team of people that are working closely with our dealers and our customers and that the freight market is returning. And so those are the factors that push us into that confidence.

我會說，我們有一支很棒的團隊，正與經銷商和客戶密切合作，而且貨運市場正在回溫。這些因素讓我們有那樣的信心。

Kyle, and I'll add that we've seen a growth in our fleet services program. So that shows that we continue to gain new customers, the ease of doing business with our parts programs, we gain new customers and we continue to increase our share of wallet with our current customer base. So we are planning for ongoing growth.

Kyle，我再補充一下：我們看到車隊服務計畫（fleet services program）在成長。這顯示我們持續獲得新客戶；透過我們的零件方案，交易更便利，我們獲得新客戶，並且持續提高在現有客戶中的錢包份額（share of wallet）。因此我們正在規劃持續成長。

Got it. And then I also wanted to follow-up on some of the earlier Q&A related to 2027. I mean, it sounds like you're thinking second-half might be a little bit stronger than first half. I'm curious if you think than that first half of 2027 could be a little bit softer just from a delivery perspective than where you'll be at in the second-half of 2026? And then I guess you're expecting the second-half of '27 to be a bit stronger?

了解。另外我也想追問一些先前與2027年相關的問答。聽起來你們認為下半年可能會比上半年更強一些。我想知道你們是否認為，從交付（delivery）的角度來看，2027年上半年可能會比2026年下半年你們所處的水準稍微疲弱一些？然後你們是預期2027年下半年會更強嗎？

Well, Kyle, I don't know if you might be putting a little too many words in my mouth. I think that we have to see what the NCP levels are set at. I think that will be very significant to how the market reacts at the beginning of the year. We've seen good interest, but we've seen obviously the customers would like to know what the NCP level is going to be. We know they'd like to buy a truck that's durable, reliable and proven for themselves, but we need to see NCP levels and once those become finalized and if they're set at a level which is helpful to the truckers who are already dealing with high fuel prices, then that will be good for the market in the early part of the year.

嗯，Kyle，我不確定你是不是在我沒說的地方加了太多字。我認為我們必須看看NCP水準會被設定在什麼位置。我認為這將對年初市場如何反應非常關鍵。我們看到不錯的興趣，但顯然客戶會想知道NCP水準會是多少。我們知道他們想買的是對他們而言耐用、可靠、且經過驗證的卡車，但我們需要看到NCP水準；一旦這些水準定案，而且如果設定在一個對卡車司機有幫助的水準——他們已經在承受高油價——那麼這將有利於年初的市場。

And then obviously, as you get into the latter part of the year and customers get some time, we'll see what their reactions are. It gets a little bit tougher to predict the market in the second-half when it's nine months to a year from now.

然後很明顯地，當進入年底後段、客戶有一些時間之後，我們會看看他們的反應如何。要預測九個月到一年之後的下半年市場，會稍微更困難一些。

Thanks for the time.

感謝您撥冗。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

Jamie Cook，Truist Securities。

Hi. Thanks for allowing me to ask a question. I guess my first question, Preston, could you just speak to sort of your competitive positioning in the US with Section 232? How you're performing from a market share opportunity relative to your initial expectations, or do you think in how you're balancing sort of market share for price in this type of environment, can we get the Section 232 benefits dropping to the bottom line?

嗨。感謝讓我提問。我想我的第一個問題，Preston，您能否談談在美國、在第232條款（Section 232）之下，貴公司的競爭定位？就市占率機會而言，您的表現相較於最初預期如何？或者在這種環境下，您如何在「市占率」與「價格」之間取得平衡？我們是否能看到第232條款帶來的效益直接反映到最終獲利（bottom line）？

And then I guess my second question. Again, sorry to ask about next year, but I will anyway. Assuming the US market outperforms, Europe next year, just thinking from a geographic mix perspective, the impact on margins, would North America be accretive or is there just sort of more noise associated with NCPs and supplier constraints and stuff like that? Thank you.

接著我想問第二個問題。再次抱歉要問到明年，但我還是要問。假設明年美國市場表現優於歐洲，從地理組合的角度來看，對毛利率的影響會是什麼？北美會是增益（accretive）嗎？還是說因為NCP（非符合規範零件/不合格零件）與供應商限制等因素，會有比較多雜訊？謝謝。

Looking at your first question, I would say. Probably the easy thing to do is look at truck margin since December 2025 till now and say that it's gone from $240 million to $570 million, and I think that kind of answers the question of the positioning of what's happening and holding market share as a relatively flat position.

就您的第一個問題來看，我會說。也許最簡單的方式是看卡車部門的利潤，自2025年12月到現在，已從2.40億美元增加到5.70億美元；我認為這基本上就回答了目前的定位、正在發生的事情，以及在市占率相對持平的情況下仍能守住市占。

Jamie, and just the comment about Europe, we still forecast Europe to remain strong in that $300 million to $320 million. DOF's done a great job maintaining its position and seeing an increase in order activity in the back half of this year, and we've increased build commiserate with the increased orders. So good forecast in Europe for next year.

Jamie，另外關於歐洲的部分，我們仍預估歐洲將維持強勁，約在3.00億到3.20億美元的水準。DAF在維持其市場地位方面做得非常好，並且在今年下半年看到訂單活動增加；我們也已隨著訂單增加而相應提高產量。因此，對明年的歐洲展望良好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Jamie. Good talking to you.

謝謝你，Jamie。很高興和你交流。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

Steven Fisher，瑞銀（UBS）。

So you were able to maintain or hit your margin targets despite the lower deliveries in the quarter. So I guess I'm just curious what kind of helped that along? Was it just some general conservatism at the beginning? Were there any particular mix dynamics in there? I think you already said that the tariffs were not sort of a material benefit to it. So just curious, what drove that hitting the margins despite the lower deliveries?

所以即使本季交車量較低，你們仍能維持或達成毛利率目標。我想了解是哪些因素促成的？是因為一開始採取較保守的作法嗎？是否有任何特定的產品組合（mix）動態？我想你們已經提到關稅並不是實質性的助益。所以我想問，在交車量較低的情況下，究竟是什麼驅動你們仍能達成毛利率？

Steven, the simple answer, and it's really true, is amazing people. We have a great team of people around Paccar. And you've had the chance to be in our factories, you meet the people that work there, you watch what they do every day and how well they can perform in spite of complications. It's super impressive, and it happens at every part of the business, the Financial Services Business, the Parts Business. So those are the contributors more than anything else is to the performance in lieu of lower deliveries and they just keep doing a great job. And so that's probably the biggest thing.

Steven，最簡單的答案，而且確實如此，就是了不起的人才。我們在Paccar周圍有一支非常優秀的團隊。你也曾有機會到我們的工廠，你會見到在那裡工作的員工，看到他們每天做的事情，以及他們如何在面對各種複雜狀況下仍能有很好的表現。這非常令人印象深刻，而且在業務的每個環節都如此，包括金融服務業務、零件業務。因此，相較於其他因素，真正的貢獻者是在交車量較低的情況下仍能維持表現；他們就是持續把工作做得很好。所以這大概是最主要的原因。

Okay, thank you. Obviously, there's a lot of talk about supply chain challenges on the call. Just curious how broad those challenges are. Is that mostly within domestic markets? Is it related to imports? Is it just a few or is it more broad? Any help you can give on that?

好的，謝謝。顯然，電話會議上談了很多供應鏈挑戰。我想了解這些挑戰的範圍有多廣。主要是在國內市場嗎？還是與進口相關？是少數幾項，還是更廣泛的問題？能否提供一些說明？

Yeah, I think the easiest way to think about it at the macro level is, build rates have gone up significantly and they've gone up rather quickly and that just puts a tax on the system, we have great suppliers, they do a good job of working with us, it's just expecting them to go up this quickly in support of the total industry has been created some work for them and a few misses, and all you have to do is miss a single part on a truck and it becomes impactful.

是的，我認為從宏觀層面最容易理解的方式是：產量（build rates）已大幅提高，而且提升得相當快，這會對整個系統造成壓力。我們有很棒的供應商，他們也很努力與我們合作；只是要他們在支援整個產業的情況下這麼快速地拉升產能，確實會帶來一些工作量與少數的缺料情況。而你只要在一台卡車上少了一個零件，就會造成影響。

Almost all of them are performing really well, but all it takes is one or two missed parts to make it meaningful. And so our teams are working closely with them and we're making great progress, hence the guide for higher deliveries in Q4.

幾乎所有供應商的表現都非常好，但只要有一兩個零件缺料，就足以造成顯著影響。因此，我們的團隊正與他們密切合作，而且我們正在取得很大進展，這也是我們指引（guide）第四季交車量將提高的原因。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

Angel Castillo，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）。

Hi, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Preston, I wanted to ask a little bit of a bigger picture question around autonomous. So clearly, the trucker here is under quite a bit of pressure, ranging from drivers to high fuel prices. Just was curious if you could elaborate or at least comment in terms of what you're seeing in terms of customers' appetite for perhaps autonomous trucks, given your work with your partners.

嗨，午安，謝謝讓我提問。Preston，我想問一個更宏觀、關於自動駕駛的問題。很明顯，卡車運輸業者正承受相當大的壓力，從司機短缺到燃油價格高漲。我想請您進一步說明，或至少評論一下：考量你們與合作夥伴的合作進展，你們觀察到客戶對於自動駕駛卡車的接受度/意願如何？

And perhaps more specific to Paccar, as you're seeing the market evolve and all these pressure points on the trucker, any changes as to like your appetite or the pace at which you want to move in terms of some of these investments to develop autonomous solutions here that you might be able to deploy to both gain share, but more importantly, help your customer solve some of those issues?

另外更具體地針對Paccar：隨著市場演變、以及運輸業者面臨這些壓力點，你們在投資意願或投資節奏上是否有任何改變？也就是在開發自動駕駛解決方案方面，你們希望以多快的速度推進，以便能夠部署、提升市占；更重要的是，協助客戶解決其中一些問題？

Yeah, great. I love the way you ended the question, Angel, and thinking about helping our customers because that's kind of what we try to do every day. And if we have the opportunity to develop safe, reliable technology that helps our customers and that's and then we see autonomy being able to do that, then that's the path we're on.

是的，很好。Angel，我很喜歡你最後那段提問方式，從協助客戶的角度出發，因為這正是我們每天努力在做的事。如果我們有機會開發出安全、可靠、能幫助客戶的技術，而我們也看到自動化/自動駕駛能做到這一點，那這就是我們正在走的方向。

We're developing our own proprietary autonomous vehicle platform, which will make it easier for autonomous systems to be integrated into the truck in the factory. We think that's a significant advantage for the future going forward. Our pace of play on this is really about safety first. These are 40-ton vehicles. We want to make sure that they are completely capable, fully validated with production parts just like any new program we do, and that's determining the pace of our introductions.

我們正在開發自有的專有自動駕駛車輛平台，這將使自動駕駛系統更容易在工廠端整合到卡車上。我們認為這會是未來的一項重要優勢。我們在這方面的推進節奏，核心是「安全第一」。這些是40噸的車輛。我們要確保它們完全具備能力、並使用量產零件完成全面驗證，就像我們做任何新專案一樣；這也決定了我們導入（introductions）的速度。

We have good partners in Stack, Aurora and others as we work forward with our customers and how to deploy that. We obviously think the deployment will happen somewhat gradually in lanes, in weather climbs. And then it will roll out in a progressive way. And I think the other instructive thing to think at the macro level is, it's got to be a win for our customers. It's got to be a win for the developers. And it's got to be a win for Paccar. And so when all those parties are winning and we have a durable, reliable, safe system, then that's when it will begin to deploy at scale. So that feels pretty good.

我們與Stack、Aurora等夥伴合作良好，並與客戶一起推進如何部署。我們顯然認為部署會以相對漸進的方式進行，先在特定路線（lanes）、特定天候條件下。接著再以循序漸進的方式擴大推廣。另外，從宏觀層面來看還有一點很關鍵：這必須對客戶是雙贏。對開發者也必須是雙贏。對Paccar也必須是雙贏。當所有參與方都能受益，且我們擁有耐用、可靠、安全的系統時，才會開始大規模部署。所以我們對此感覺相當不錯。

I think the other thing that we look at in that is, macroscopically, it's very good for Paccar because trucks are still going to need maintenance and they're still going to be taken care of and it's going to involve our dealers and support systems for those trucks because now there won't be a driver at that point. So the Paccar Connect system and all of the information we have on trucks will integrate us more to the vehicle.

另外我們也看到，從宏觀角度而言，這對Paccar非常有利，因為卡車仍然需要維修保養、仍然需要被妥善照護；而這將涉及我們的經銷商與支援體系來服務這些卡車，因為到那時候可能就沒有駕駛員了。因此，Paccar Connect系統以及我們掌握的所有卡車資訊，將使我們與車輛的整合更緊密。

Very helpful. Thank you. And then we've had a lot of discussion around the P&L, but I was hoping to kind of pivot it to maybe the cash flow a little bit. Can you just talk about what your expectation is for cash flow from operations and free cash flow for -- or just cash flow from operations for the year?

非常有幫助。謝謝。接著，我們已經就損益表（P&L）討論了很多，但我希望能稍微轉到現金流的部分。你能談談你們對今年營運活動現金流與自由現金流的預期嗎——或者就今年的營運活動現金流也可以？

And to the extent that you kind of elaborate a little bit more on kind of the third quarter and year-to-date cash generation, is that kind of as expected? Are there any puts and takes there that may be surprised or that we should be mindful of as we think about cash flow generation for the remainder of the year or in the third quarter that may or may not have kind of potentially caused it to be a little bit light. Just any again more color that you can provide on cash flow generation this year. That would be helpful?

另外，如果你能再多談一點第三季以及年初至今的現金產生情況，那是否符合預期？其中是否有任何正負因素讓人意外，或是我們在思考今年剩餘期間的現金流產生、或第三季的現金流產生時需要留意的——可能或不可能導致它看起來稍微偏弱的因素？總之，任何你能提供的、關於今年現金流產生的更多細節。那會很有幫助？

Sure, Angel. This is Brice. I would just tell you, we feel pretty proud of the cash we generate. We generate cash through the nine months of $2.5 billion, which is greater than our net income, and a lot of companies can't say that. So it's very high-quality of earnings. So we're pretty proud about that result.

當然，Angel。我是Brice。我只能說，我們對自己產生的現金流感到相當自豪。我們在九個月期間產生了25億美元的現金，這比我們的淨利還高，很多公司做不到這點。所以這是非常高品質的獲利。因此我們對這個結果相當自豪。

And for the year, we would expect a similar kind of scenario where the income would be generated through the cash from operations, meaning net income is the biggest driver. And if you're commenting about last year's number, it had a one-off kind of a large effect because our wholesale dealer flooring inventory was down. So that was kind of a one-off, not a typical thing where dealer flooring changes that much in a given year.

至於全年，我們預期會是類似的情況，也就是營運活動現金流會反映出獲利的產生，換言之，淨利是最大的驅動因素。如果你是在提去年的數字，去年有一次性的較大影響，因為我們的批發經銷商地板融資（flooring）庫存下降。所以那算是一次性因素，不是典型情況；經銷商地板融資的變動在某一年不太會那麼大。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research的Scott Group。

Are you out there?

你在線上嗎？

Okay, Joel, I think we maybe can leave it there.

好的，Joel，我想我們也許可以先到這裡。

Sounds good. It looks like -- oh, it does look like Scott has tried to dial in one more time. Would you like me to put him onto the stage?

聽起來不錯。看起來——喔，看起來Scott又嘗試撥入一次。你希望我把他接上台嗎？

Sure. Yes, please.

當然。是的，麻煩。

Scott, Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research的Scott。

Hey, guys. Can you hear me now?

嘿，各位。你們現在聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we got you, Scott. Glad you got in.

是的，我們聽到了，Scott。很高興你接進來了。

All right, fantastic. Thank you. So it sounds like you guys were at ATA last week meeting with customers. Just wondering sort of the tenor of the conversations, truck rates going up a lot, driver market tight. Are you hearing about fleet growth? Is it just replacement? And sort of how you think that plays out and maybe what you think that means for the used market going forward as well?

好，太棒了。謝謝。所以聽起來你們上週在ATA與客戶會面。想請教一下談話的氛圍如何：卡車運價大幅上升、司機市場吃緊。你們有聽到車隊在擴張嗎？還是只是汰舊換新？以及你們認為這會如何發展，並且對未來二手市場可能意味著什麼？

I think we're sitting in a transition point where the fleets would like to be growing. They're still managing cash flow. They've seen costs be high with fuel, so fuel increases is a cash flow problem for them. They're managing driver costs, that's a cash flow impact to them. If they'd like to be growing their businesses, some of them are starting to see that ability, but it's really just beginning to be there.

我認為我們正處在一個轉折點：車隊希望能成長。他們仍在管理現金流。他們看到燃油成本居高不下，所以燃油上漲對他們而言是現金流問題。他們也在管理司機成本，這同樣會影響他們的現金流。如果他們想擴大業務，其中一些人開始看到具備這種能力，但目前真的才剛開始出現。

There's been some consolidation over the past few years, just taking some absorption of fleet size into the market that's now I think finishing. So it makes it feel like they'll begin to see increases in fleet size in the coming quarters.

過去幾年出現了一些整併，等於把部分車隊規模吸收進市場，我認為這個過程現在差不多要結束了。因此讓人感覺在接下來幾個季度，車隊規模將開始增加。

Okay, that's helpful. And just -- on this like idea of all this like very near term uncertainty, I don't know if you guys can give any color, like what percentage of 1Q is like sold out now? And it sounds like pricing's really good in Q4, does that logically take a step back in Q1 if we have less trucks sold at this point, just any sort of near-term thoughts there?

好的，這很有幫助。另外——關於這種非常短期的不確定性，我不知道你們能否提供一些資訊，例如第一季目前大概有多少比例已經售罄？而且聽起來第四季的定價非常好；如果目前賣出的卡車較少，第一季在邏輯上會不會回落一些？就任何短期想法都可以。

Yeah, great question. I think when we look at it, just having the year filled as we sit here and it's been filled for a little bit gives us confidence that there is demand that's strong out there. And now I think that as we're filling the Q1, it's pretty early. Like you think a lot of fleets come into ATA, we're talking about ATA. And they're just starting to decide what capital to allocate and how they're going to do that.

是的，問得很好。我認為從我們的角度來看，當我們坐在這裡時全年產能已經排滿，而且已經滿了一段時間，這讓我們對外部需求強勁更有信心。而現在我們在填補第一季的訂單時，還算很早。你想，很多車隊來參加ATA——我們一直在談ATA——他們才剛開始決定要配置多少資本，以及要如何配置。

So it's pretty early days for Q1 to have a real look yet. I think we'll get a better view of that in the coming four to eight weeks here and obviously getting certainty of NCPs and if they're at a low level to support our customers' wishes for the proven product, that will be advantageous to the fill of Q1.

所以要對第一季有真正清楚的掌握，現在還算早期。我想接下來四到八週我們會看得更清楚；當然，取得NCP的確定性也很重要，如果NCP維持在較低水準以支持客戶對成熟產品的需求，將有利於第一季的接單填補。

And then just like last thing real quick, when do you actually think you're going to get that certainty on NCP? Is that in the next four to eight weeks or could that get pushed out to next year even? I don't even know.

最後再很快問一下，你們實際上什麼時候會對NCP取得那個確定性？會是在接下來四到八週嗎？還是可能會延到明年？我也不太確定。

Yeah, I think four to eight weeks feels like a good number. Obviously, we don't make those rules, so we just receive them and we continue to have a great working relationship with the government trying to sort this out for the betterment of the industry, but the timing is unclear at this point.

是的，我覺得四到八週聽起來是個合理的時間。當然，我們不制定那些規則，我們只是接收規則；我們也持續與政府保持很好的合作關係，努力把這件事釐清，以促進產業的整體利益，但目前時間點仍不明朗。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝各位。

Yeah, have a great day.

好的，祝你今天愉快。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前佇列中沒有其他問題。公司方面還有任何補充說明嗎？

Thank you, Joel, and thanks everyone for joining the call.

謝謝你，Joel，也謝謝各位參與這通電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Paccar's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，Paccar的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。