帕卡 (PCAR) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

    早安,歡迎參加 PACCAR 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)今天的電話會議將被錄音,如有任何人反對,請於此時中斷連線。現在我想介紹 PACCAR 投資人關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。Hastings 先生,請開始。

  • Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and welcome, everyone. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Baney, President; and Brice Poplawski, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings at the Investor Relations page of PACCAR.

    早安,歡迎各位。我是 Ken Hastings,PACCAR 投資人關係總監。今天早上與我一同出席的有:執行長 Preston Feight;總裁 Kevin Baney;以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。與以往的電話會議相同,我們請線上的媒體朋友以僅收聽模式參與。今天所呈現的部分資訊屬於前瞻性陳述,並涉及可能影響預期結果的風險與不確定性。更多資訊請參閱 PACCAR 投資人關係頁面上的 SEC 申報文件。

  • I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

    現在我想介紹 Preston Feight。

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, PACCAR's outstanding employees did an excellent job providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. I really appreciate their hard work, their high performance, and dedication as we increase build rates in our factories all around the world.

    謝謝你,Ken。各位早安。第一季,PACCAR 優秀的員工在為客戶提供業界最高品質的卡車與運輸解決方案方面表現出色。我非常感謝他們的辛勤付出、高效表現與投入,因為我們正在全球各地的工廠提高產量。

  • PACCAR achieved revenues of $6.8 billion and net income of $605 million in the first quarter. These results were generated by strong PACCAR parts and financial services results as well as solid growth in the truck businesses. PACCAR Parts achieved quarterly revenues of $1.7 billion and quarterly pretax income of $402 million. PACCAR Financial had a strong quarter, achieving pretax income of $116 million.

    PACCAR 第一季營收達 68 億美元,淨利為 6.05 億美元。這些成果來自 PACCAR 零件與金融服務的強勁表現,以及卡車業務的穩健成長。PACCAR Parts 單季營收達 17 億美元,單季稅前獲利為 4.02 億美元。PACCAR Financial 也有強勁的一季,稅前獲利達 1.16 億美元。

  • Looking at this year's US and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230,000 to 270,000 units. The market is strengthening as driver and fleet capacity becomes limited and customers begin to realize higher freight rates. This is somewhat moderated by fuel and other operating cost volatility.

    就今年美國與加拿大卡車市場而言,我們估計規模約在 23 萬至 27 萬輛之間。隨著駕駛與車隊運能變得有限、客戶開始看到更高的運價,市場正在走強。不過,燃料與其他營運成本的波動在一定程度上抑制了這股趨勢。

  • In the first quarter, Kenworth launched a new C580 heavy-duty vocational truck. This large multi-axle model was introduced at the CONEXPO trade show and is a unique super heavy-duty truck used in severe service applications around the world. We project the 2026 European above 16-tonne market size to be in a range of 280,000 to 320,000. DAF's premium aerodynamic trucks provide customers with the latest technology, and best operating efficiency.

    第一季,Kenworth 推出全新的 C580 重型工程用卡車。這款大型多軸車型在 CONEXPO 展會上亮相,是一款獨特的超重型卡車,適用於全球各地的嚴苛工況。我們預估 2026 年歐洲 16 噸以上市場規模約在 28 萬至 32 萬輛之間。DAF 的高端空氣力學卡車為客戶提供最新技術與最佳營運效率。

  • As mentioned on the January earnings call, DAF XF and XD Electric vehicles won the International Truck of the Year 2026 honor. In the first quarter, DAF extended its EV leadership by introducing new flagship XG and XG+ electric vehicles. In addition, the XF Electric earned another award the 2026 Eco-Friendly Truck of the Year in Spain. This year's South American above 16-tonne truck market, where DAF trucks are desired by customers for their durability and advanced technology is expected to be in a range of 100,000 to 110,000 vehicles.

    如同在 1 月的財報電話會議中提到的,DAF XF 與 XD 電動車榮獲 2026 年「國際年度卡車」大獎。第一季,DAF 透過推出全新旗艦 XG 與 XG+ 電動車,進一步擴大其電動車領先地位。此外,XF Electric 也在西班牙再度獲獎,拿下 2026 年「年度環保卡車」。今年南美 16 噸以上卡車市場(客戶因其耐用性與先進技術而青睞 DAF 卡車)預期約在 10 萬至 11 萬輛之間。

  • In the first quarter, PACCAR delivered 33,100 trucks. And in the second quarter, will deliver an estimated 37,000 to 38,000 vehicles. PACCAR's Truck, Parts and Other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance. Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase. We anticipate continued performance improvements in the second half of the year as our customers benefit from our local-for-local manufacturing strategy, experienced better operating conditions and purchased trucks in front of the coming 2027 emissions change.

    第一季,PACCAR 交付 33,100 輛卡車。第二季預計將交付約 37,000 至 38,000 輛。由於卡車部門表現改善,PACCAR 的卡車、零件及其他業務毛利率在第一季由 12% 提升至 13.1%。隨著全球產量增加,第二季毛利率預估將擴大至約 13.5%。我們預期下半年將持續改善表現,因為客戶將受益於我們在地供應在地製造(local-for-local)的製造策略、營運環境改善,並在即將到來的 2027 年排放法規變更前提前購車。

  • PACCAR's exceptional range of trucks, compelling parts business, industry-leading financial services and advanced technology strategy position the company well for an excellent future. Kevin will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, Financial Services and other business highlights. Kevin?

    PACCAR 卓越的卡車產品組合、具吸引力的零件業務、業界領先的金融服務,以及先進技術策略,使公司具備迎向卓越未來的良好定位。接下來 Kevin 將就 PACCAR Parts、金融服務及其他業務重點提供最新進展。Kevin?

  • Kevin Baney - President

    Kevin Baney - President

  • Thanks, Preston. PACCAR Parts achieved first quarter revenues of $1.7 billion and profits of $402 million. Gross margins were 29.6%. We expect parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year. PACCAR Parts has 21 parts distribution centers worldwide and has plans to expand its global distribution network in TRP stores.

    謝謝你,Preston。PACCAR Parts 第一季營收達 17 億美元,獲利為 4.02 億美元。毛利率為 29.6%。我們預期第二季零件銷售將成長約 3%,全年則約在 3% 至 6% 的區間。PACCAR Parts 在全球擁有 21 座零件配送中心,並計畫透過 TRP 門市擴大全球配送網路。

  • As mentioned at our recent Analyst Day, we continue to see great opportunities for broad-based parts growth and look forward to realizing that opportunity in partnership with our outstanding dealer network. PACCAR Financial Services pretax income was a robust $116 million. The continued strong performance is a result of solid asset growth, improving margins and the used truck market that is beginning to strengthen.

    如同我們近期分析師日所提到的,我們持續看到零件業務廣泛成長的絕佳機會,並期待與我們優秀的經銷商網路合作,實現這項機會。PACCAR Financial Services 稅前獲利強勁,達 1.16 億美元。持續的強勁表現來自穩健的資產成長、利差改善,以及二手卡車市場開始轉強。

  • This year, we're planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million. As we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include advanced flexible manufacturing technologies, next-generation powertrains PACCAR's autonomous vehicle platform and integrated connected vehicle services. We are excited for the growth PACCAR will experience in the coming quarters and years. We are now pleased to answer your questions.

    今年我們規劃資本投資約在 7.25 億至 7.75 億美元之間,研發費用約在 4.5 億至 5 億美元之間,因為我們將持續投資於關鍵技術與創新專案。這些專案包括先進的彈性製造技術、下一代動力系統、PACCAR 的自動駕駛車輛平台,以及整合式車聯網服務。我們對 PACCAR 在未來幾季與未來幾年的成長感到振奮。現在我們很高興回答各位的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

    (接線員指示)美國銀行 Michael Feniger。

  • Michael Feniger - Analyst

    Michael Feniger - Analyst

  • Just on the parts guidance. Maybe you guys can just unpack what did you see in the quarter? It feels like a slower start I'd love if we could just start there of what you're seeing in the parts side, how we're looking so far for -- through Q2 and how we should think about that in the back half with orders starting to pick up and be better than expected.

    關於零件的指引,或許你們可以再拆解一下本季看到了什麼?感覺像是開局比較慢。我想先從這裡開始:你們在零件端看到的狀況是什麼?到目前為止——一路到第二季——看起來如何?以及下半年該怎麼看待,因為訂單似乎開始回升、表現也比預期更好。

  • Kevin Baney - President

    Kevin Baney - President

  • Yes, Michael, this is Kevin. I'll start with the parts side. So with fleet consolidations and the higher fuel prices that's impacted, let's say, operating cost volatility. That's resulted in the parts market remaining soft. And so as we see as customers start to get healthy, we'll talk a little bit more about the truck market side, but as customers start to get healthy, we'll see the parts market get healthier with that as well. And so just for the full year guidance for the 3% to 6%, we see that accelerating through the rest of the year.

    好的,Michael,我是 Kevin。我先從零件端開始談。由於車隊整併以及燃油價格上升,這影響了——可以說——營運成本的波動性。這使得零件市場仍然偏疲弱。隨著我們看到客戶開始恢復健康——我們稍後也會多談一些卡車市場端——但當客戶開始恢復健康時,零件市場也會隨之轉為更健康。因此,就全年 3% 到 6% 的指引而言,我們認為成長會在今年剩餘時間加速。

  • Michael Feniger - Analyst

    Michael Feniger - Analyst

  • And just on the -- my last question, just on the gross margin, $13.5 the pickup versus 31% in Q1. Just should we still think that gross margin sequentially walk up through the year as build rates recover? Is there a pricing expectation that, that could also get better as well given your comments that the US markets continue to strengthen. Just kind of curious how we should think about as you build through the year and what number we might be exiting the year as we're starting to see some strength in freight rates, even excluding fuel right now?

    另外我最後一個問題,關於毛利率:第二季 13.5%,相較第一季的 31% 有所回升。隨著產量(build rates)恢復,我們是否仍應該預期毛利率會在全年逐季上升?在定價方面,是否也有可能改善,尤其你們提到美國市場持續走強。想請教我們應該如何看待你們全年生產爬坡的過程,以及在目前看到運價走強(即使先不考慮燃油)之下,年底可能會以什麼水準作結?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Michael, thanks for the question. This is Preston, it's good to tell you I think you talked about a few things in there that we're seeing is we do see the increasing volumes. I'm really pleased with how the factories have been able to, again, create local for local manufacturing capability in America.

    Michael,謝謝你的問題。我是 Preston。很高興跟你說,我想你提到的幾個面向,確實也是我們正在看到的:我們確實看到出貨量在增加。我對工廠能夠再次在美國建立在地供應在地製造(local for local)的製造能力感到非常滿意。

  • We see the volumes increasing, as we said, the 37,000 and 38,000 in the second quarter. That's on the basis of build rates that we've already put in place. So teams have done a really good job of that. And we see some of that margin growth coming from that volume, partially offset a little bit by the price of energy, steel, aluminum, the raw material pricing in there. So there is that not quite sure customers have seen the full effect of tariffs yet. But we feel really good about the cadence throughout the year as the market and our customers get healthy, and we see accelerating sequentially. Maria, let's go to the next question.

    我們看到出貨量增加,如我們所說,第二季為 37,000 到 38,000 輛。這是基於我們已經到位的產能提升(build rates)。因此團隊在這方面做得非常好。我們也看到部分毛利率成長來自這些量的提升,但也被能源、鋼材、鋁材等原物料價格部分抵銷。因此在原物料定價上確實有這個因素。另外也不太確定客戶是否已經完全感受到關稅的全部影響。但我們對全年節奏感到非常樂觀,隨著市場與客戶狀況改善,我們看到逐季加速。Maria,我們進入下一題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.

    Jerry Revich,富國銀行。

  • Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

    Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

  • I'm wondering if you just talk about the really strong profit per truck that you folks delivered in the quarter, so it would lower Parts contribution, you folks still exceeded the guidance range. So it looks like your profit per truck was up to about 5,300 to 2,900 last quarter. Can we just unpack that, how much of that was better cost execution versus mix and any other moving pieces as we think about the profile heading into the rest of the year?

    我想請你們談談本季你們交出的每輛卡車獲利非常強勁;即使零件(Parts)貢獻較低,你們仍然超出指引區間。所以看起來你們每輛卡車的獲利大約從上一季的2,900提高到約5,300。能否請你們拆解一下:其中有多少來自更好的成本執行、產品組合(mix),以及其他變動因素?也請談談我們在展望今年剩餘時間的獲利輪廓時,應如何看待這些因素。

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Jerry, thanks for the comments. I appreciate them. They're nice well stated. We did have price cost advantage in the quarter sequentially.

    是的。Jerry,謝謝你的評論,我很感謝。你講得很好。本季我們在價格/成本方面相較前一季確實有優勢。

  • So we saw ourselves up over percent in price cost, which is good. I think the teams are doing a really good job of focusing on the market we're in. So being price careful to see if we can make sure that we get our percentage of the market. In fact, we saw that in terms of our percentage of market build.

    所以我們看到價格/成本提升超過一個百分點,這很好。我認為團隊在聚焦我們所處的市場方面做得非常好。因此在定價上很謹慎,看看能否確保我們拿到應有的市占率。事實上,我們也在市占率提升上看到了這點。

  • So in the first quarter, we built 31.8% of the market, which is very favorable. -- in a good position to be in. And so we're balancing that growth with price/cost favorability.

    所以在第一季,我們生產了市場的31.8%,這非常有利——是一個很好的位置。因此我們在平衡成長的同時,也維持價格/成本的有利性。

  • Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

    Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

  • Super. And then as we look at the backlog, how much more favorable is price cost based on what's in backlog versus what we saw in the first quarter?

    很好。那再看積壓訂單(backlog),以積壓訂單的內容相較第一季所看到的情況,價格/成本有利性還會更好多少?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, we think we'll have favorability as we look forward into the second quarter. Obviously, we're looking at our volumes going up appreciably. We're really full through the second quarter, and we have good visibility into the third and the fourth quarter.

    我們認為展望第二季仍會有有利性。很明顯地,我們看到出貨量將顯著上升。我們第二季的產能幾乎滿載,而且對第三季與第四季也有很好的能見度。

  • Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

    Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Super. And just one last one, just to calibrate expectations around orders over the balance of the year. We're hearing that there's just limited number of build slots available that might hamper orders over the next couple of quarters versus underlying demand? Is that the case for uses, what proportion of your build slots are already spoken for the next three quarters?

    好的,很好。最後一個問題,想校準一下對今年剩餘時間訂單的預期。我們聽到接下來幾季可用的生產名額(build slots)數量有限,可能會讓訂單成長受限、與基本需求不相符。你們這邊也是這樣嗎?你們未來三個季度的生產名額大概有多少比例已經被預訂了?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Like I said, as we have -- we're full in Q2 were a majority full in Q3, Q4. I'm not sure I recognize the commentary about people not having slot that sounds more like a marketing scheme.

    是的。就像我說的,我們第二季是滿的,第三季大多也滿了,第四季也是。我不太認同有人沒有名額的說法,那聽起來更像是一種行銷話術。

  • Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

    Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst

  • Fair enough.

    了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

    Tami Zakaria,摩根大通。

  • Tami Zakaria - Analyst

    Tami Zakaria - Analyst

  • My first question is just on the Section 232 metal tariffs that went into effect in early April, does that change your view on what would be the tariff impact, especially for aftermarket parts versus the last time you spoke? Or is it basically doesn't -- does it not change the tariff headwind that you expected?

    我的第一個問題是關於4月初生效的232條款金屬關稅(Section 232 metal tariffs)。這是否改變你們對關稅影響的看法,特別是對售後零件(aftermarket parts)相較於你們上次談到時?還是基本上——它並沒有改變你們原先預期的關稅逆風?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Tami, it's good to hear from you. It doesn't really have a lot of impact for us because of the truck-specific 232 has specific offsets and it applies mostly to those materials. So there's some moderate impact but not significant.

    Tami,很高興聽到你的聲音。這對我們其實影響不大,因為卡車特定的232條款有特定的抵減(offsets),而且主要適用於那些材料。所以會有一些中度影響,但不顯著。

  • Tami Zakaria - Analyst

    Tami Zakaria - Analyst

  • Understood. That's helpful. And -- just following up on what Jerry was asking. Maybe I wanted to ask it in a different way. So based on third-party data, orders have been very strong year-to-date.

    了解,這很有幫助。然後——接續Jerry剛才問的問題,我想用不同方式問。根據第三方數據,今年以來訂單一直非常強勁。

  • You kept your US/Canada outlook unchanged. Does this outlook include the year-to-date strength in orders, meaning do you expect orders to moderate as we go through the year? And as we get close to the NOx time line? Or is your view shaped by supply chain rather than demand?

    你們維持美國/加拿大展望不變。這個展望是否已包含年初至今訂單的強勁表現,也就是說你們預期訂單在今年進行中會趨於降溫,並且在接近NOx時程時?還是你們的看法更多是由供應鏈而非需求所形塑?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think our view is shaped by the fact that the first quarter really didn't have a high cadence to it. So if the first quarter ran at something around or just a little under 200,000 units, and in order for it to come to the midpoint at 250,000, there’s going to have to be a rapid acceleration. And we have a great supply base, but they also need to be able to spin up their operations. So the rate of increase quarter-over-quarter as we probably informs the total market size.

    我認為我們的看法主要是因為第一季的節奏其實不快。所以如果第一季的年化速度大約在20萬輛左右或略低於20萬輛,而要達到25萬輛的中位數,就必須快速加速。我們有很好的供應基礎,但供應商也需要能把營運拉升起來。因此,季度對季度的增速,可能也會影響我們對整體市場規模的判斷。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Wertheimer, Melius.

    Rob Wertheimer,Melius。

  • Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

    Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

  • Is there any visible impact of the war in the Middle East on confidence or demand or orders in Europe?

    中東戰爭對歐洲的信心、需求或訂單,有沒有任何可見的影響?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • What we've seen is -- I think it's a really good word to use confidence in demand Rob. And I would say that confidence -- yes, I think people are paying attention to and trying to discern what it might mean in the general economy, of course. I would say from a demand standpoint, we've seen less impact. We've seen continued good order intake throughout the last couple of months. So less of a show there.

    Rob,我覺得你用「信心」來形容需求是個很好的詞。我會說在信心方面——是的,我認為大家確實在關注並試圖判斷這對整體經濟可能意味著什麼,當然。但就需求面而言,我們看到的影響較小。過去幾個月我們的接單仍然維持良好,所以在那方面的影響不大。

  • Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

    Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

  • Perfect. And if I can just ask, I mean, I think we chatted about this once, but the rise of electric trucks in China has been very sharp. And maybe for geopolitical reasons. Could you talk about your own experience? And do you see strong demand from comers? Is there a crossover on total cost of ownership yet on some age classes, models, whatever? And how do you see that shape at rest.

    很好。如果我可以再問一下,我想我們之前聊過一次,但中國電動卡車的成長非常迅速,也許也有地緣政治因素。你能談談你們自身的經驗嗎?你們是否看到來自新進者的強勁需求?在某些車齡級距、車型等方面,總持有成本(total cost of ownership)是否已經出現交叉點?你又如何看待後續的走勢?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Kevin, why don't you share some thoughts?

    Kevin,你要不要分享一些看法?

  • Kevin Baney - President

    Kevin Baney - President

  • Yes. So Rob, you mentioned Europe. And so the geopolitical has had an impact on the fuel prices and the cost of diesel is a bigger percent of the operating cost for customers in Europe. So there's been a lot more discussion about battery electric trucks in Europe. And as we said, DAF just won International Truck of the Year with the DAF XF and XD Electric.

    好的。Rob,你提到歐洲。地緣政治確實影響了燃料價格,而柴油成本在歐洲客戶的營運成本中占比更高。因此,歐洲對電池電動卡車的討論多了很多。正如我們所說,DAF以DAF XF與XD Electric剛獲得「年度國際卡車」大獎。

  • They just expanded their product range. So in a really good position to address the growing customer demand about battery electric trucks in Europe, and we're well positioned against the competition. We've had a lot of competitors over time, and I think we're really well positioned with a great product line.

    他們也剛擴展了產品範圍。因此我們在滿足歐洲客戶對電池電動卡車日益成長的需求方面處於非常有利的位置,而且相對競爭對手我們也具備優勢。長期以來競爭者很多,但我認為憑藉很強的產品線,我們的定位非常好。

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I would say, Kevin, I had a chance to drive that XD truck of the year -- it's amazing. It's just a really wonderful truck to be in. So it's going to be great for our customers, and it just launched in the recent months. If you look at the US, it might inform a little bit differently, I think without subsidies than doing widespread adoption is probably less likely. There can be markets where it makes sense.

    我也想說,Kevin,我有機會試駕那台獲獎的XD——真的很驚艷,坐在車內的感受非常棒。所以這會對我們的客戶很有吸引力,而且它是在最近幾個月才剛上市。如果看美國市場,可能會有些不同的啟示;我認為在沒有補貼的情況下,要大規模普及採用的可能性較低,但仍會有一些市場情境是合理的。

  • Certainly, in urban environments, there could be places where EVs make sense, and we look forward to -- we just launched a couple of new medium-duty models for -- can worth and Peterbilt. So we have those regional delivery EVs, which is where the market makes the most sense in America.

    當然,在都會環境中,某些地方電動車(EV)是有道理的。我們也期待——我們剛為Kenworth與Peterbilt推出幾款新的中型車(medium-duty)車型。因此我們有這些區域配送用的電動車,而這正是美國最合理的市場切入點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Raso, Evercore ISI.

    David Raso,Evercore ISI。

  • David Raso - Analyst

    David Raso - Analyst

  • The question relates to trying to understand your operating leverage in the truck business, particularly. It looks like you came back to the gross margin for truck must have been around 6.9%, something like that in the first quarter. So sequentially, the truck revenues went up $11 million, but your gross profit went up $73 million. And I'm just making sure we understand was there anything in the first quarter about reversal of old tariffs that you could take the benefit with Ibagon? I know we already had Truck 232 already in, but just making sure that's a clean -- that kind of strength in gross profit growth on only $11 million of revenue.

    我的問題是想了解你們卡車業務的營運槓桿,特別是。看起來第一季卡車的毛利率大概在6.9%左右。按季來看,卡車營收只增加了1,100萬美元,但毛利卻增加了7,300萬美元。我想確認一下:第一季是否有任何與舊關稅回轉(reversal of old tariffs)相關的因素,讓你們可以透過Ibagon取得好處?我知道卡車232條款之前就已經在了,但只是想確認——在營收只增加1,100萬美元的情況下,毛利成長這麼強是否是「乾淨」的。

  • I mean, I appreciate US, Canada as a percent of the shipments was a lot bigger this quarter than last quarter, so maybe that's part of it. But can you walk us through that gross margin improvement in truck on really no revenue increase?

    我的意思是,我理解本季美國、加拿大占出貨的比例比上一季大很多,所以也許這是原因之一。但你能否帶我們走一遍:在幾乎沒有營收增加的情況下,卡車毛利率為何能改善?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. David, you always do such a good job with your numbers and you continue to do that as you kind of get it right is that we had somewhere above 7% for our truck margin -- and that came largely because the teams did a really good job, so in these best-in-class products and then the leverage we got off of the volume helped us as well. So the price cost advantages contributed to that. Bryce, anything you'd add to that?

    是的。David,你的數字一向算得很好,你也確實抓得很準:我們卡車毛利率在7%以上——這主要是因為團隊做得非常好,憑藉這些同級最佳(best-in-class)的產品,再加上出貨量帶來的槓桿也幫助了我們。因此價格/成本優勢也對此有所貢獻。Bryce,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Brice Poplawski - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Brice Poplawski - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. We also had, I'll call it, favorable product mix, selling more of the Kenworth and Peterbilt brand. At the year-end, they're more lower because of the holiday shutdown season and then, of course, off at the end of the year, usually has a few units that they're getting done on their fleets that they hold an inventory. So a little bit of a favorable mix effect and where we're selling the trucks as well helped us.

    是的。我們也有(我姑且這麼說)有利的產品組合,Kenworth 與 Peterbilt 品牌的銷售占比更高。到了年底,因為假期停工季,產量通常會比較低;而且年底時,通常會有一些車輛在車隊端接近完工,他們會先保留在庫存裡。所以有一點有利的組合效應,再加上我們卡車的銷售地區/通路配置也對我們有幫助。

  • Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • And we didn't record any increase for EPA related to EPA.

    而且我們沒有因為 EPA(環保署)相關因素而認列任何增加。

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So summary of all that, David, to you is a very clean quarter, nothing to put or take out of it.

    所以把這些總結起來,David,對你來說這是一個非常乾淨的季度,沒有什麼需要加回或扣除的項目。

  • David Raso - Analyst

    David Raso - Analyst

  • That then begs the question for the next quarter where your truck revenue could be up, call it, $600 million. Rough numbers, you would think then the gross margin impact could be a little more significant than going up only 40 bps at the company level. And I apologize, I think maybe earlier you mentioned parts gross margins for 2Q. I don't think you called out anything particularly negative, but maybe I didn't hear it correctly.

    那接著就引出下一季的問題:你們的卡車營收可能會增加,大概說是 6 億美元。粗略來看,你會以為毛利率的影響應該會更顯著,而不只是公司層級僅上升 40 個基點。我先道歉,我記得你稍早可能提到第二季零件毛利率;我不覺得你特別點出任何明顯負面,但也許是我沒聽清楚。

  • So again, I'm just trying to understand that impressive performance 4Q to 1Q, but then to seems a lot more muted despite this is the quarter you get a bigger revenue move?

    所以我再重申一次:我想理解第四季到第一季這麼亮眼的表現,但接下來看起來卻溫和很多,儘管這一季才是營收變動更大的季度?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Well, let's see what the quarter is. We kind of gave you the 13.5% is our midpoint guidance for our margin look. -- we do see the volume being a good thing. I did mention earlier in the call that our build percentage has increased in the market in North America.

    是的。嗯,我們先看看這一季會如何。我們給的毛利率指引中點是 13.5%。——我們確實認為量的提升是好事。我在電話會議前面也提到,我們在北美市場的組裝占比已經提高。

  • So we're a 31.8% of a build percentage. And I also see that pricing remains competitive as our customers are just beginning to experience an acceleration in their end markets. So there's a competitive price point out there in the market that's contributing also. And so those are kind of the key factors that informed the second quarter.

    所以我們的組裝占比是 31.8%。我也看到定價仍然具競爭性,因為我們的客戶才剛開始在其終端市場感受到加速復甦。因此市場上存在具競爭力的價格水準,也在影響其中。這些就是形成第二季展望的關鍵因素。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes. David, one other comment probably worth making we guided 3% growth in parts. Obviously, the truck volume will be much greater than 3% going up by 7,000 trucks, 60,000 trucks. So you have a negative, if you want to call it, price mix effect, it also dampens the total margin percent.

    是的。David,還有一點可能值得補充:我們指引零件成長 3%。很明顯地,卡車出貨量會遠高於 3%,因為會增加 7,000 輛、到 60,000 輛的水準。所以你會有一個(如果你要這麼稱呼)不利的價格/組合效應,這也會壓抑整體毛利率百分比。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

    Chad Dillard,Bernstein。

  • Chad Dillard - Analyst

    Chad Dillard - Analyst

  • As you think about the prebuy likely to hit later this year, what are your plans for the number of shifts or build flow maybe compared to like where you are today or on a year-on-year basis? I guess like what I'm trying to get at is like how quickly could you ramp that up? -- versus where you are today, if you got a little bit more visibility into the durability of demand?

    當你們思考今年稍晚可能出現的預購潮(prebuy)時,你們對班次數或生產節奏(build flow)的規劃是什麼?相較於目前或同比來看會如何?我想問的是:如果你們對需求的持續性有更高能見度,你們能多快把產能拉上來——相較於現在?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We have great operations teams. I think they've demonstrated that not just in the past year, but over the decades. -- and they continue to be able to move up quickly. So I think it's more about what the supply base and order board and how quick they have visibility to it. So it's about a hiring cadence across the industry that will probably inform how quick it can go up.

    我們有很棒的營運團隊。我認為他們不只在過去一年,而是在過去幾十年都證明了這一點。——而且他們仍然能夠很快提升產能。所以我覺得更關鍵的是供應基礎與訂單看板,以及他們能多快取得能見度。因此,這會回到整個產業的招募節奏,這大概會決定產能能多快拉升。

  • but I feel very confident in our team's ability to add the people and the capacity we need to support the market in any market size.

    但我對我們團隊增補人力與產能、以支援市場(不論市場規模大小)的能力非常有信心。

  • Chad Dillard - Analyst

    Chad Dillard - Analyst

  • Got it. And can you talk about how industry price and behavior has changed versus the start of the year? Are some of the nondomestic producers starting to price for tariffs?

    了解。那你能談談產業定價與行為相較於年初有什麼變化嗎?一些非本土(nondomestic)的製造商是否開始把關稅因素反映到定價上?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I think you'd have to ask them the question of how they're thinking about their pricing scheme. They're better informed on that than we are. We do see a competitive market out there right now. We do see the fact that our customers, as I said, are just starting to see improvement raw material pricing is high. So there is still those things that are putting into it.

    嗯,我想你得去問他們,他們如何思考自己的定價策略;他們在這方面比我們更清楚。我們確實看到目前市場競爭激烈。我也看到,正如我說的,我們的客戶才剛開始看到改善,而原物料價格仍然偏高。所以這些因素仍在影響其中。

  • But I think we're at the beginning of what feels like an acceleration considering that the first quarter build was just a -- just under 200,000 and last year was low. So if you think about the average market being 267,000 units, there's going to be some replacement demand and there's going to be some strengthening financial performance, and those are both going to be good for us in the near and midterm for the business.

    但我認為我們正處在一個看起來像是加速的起點,因為第一季的產量大概——略低於 200,000 輛,而去年基期偏低。所以如果你把平均市場視為 267,000 輛,就會有一些汰換需求,也會有財務表現轉強;這兩者在短中期都會對我們的業務有利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Backman, Jefferies.

    Steve Backman,Jefferies。

  • We are not able to hear you, I wonder if you're on mute.

    我們聽不到你的聲音,你是不是開了靜音?

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Yes, I was. I'm just figuring out this asking a few decades of, sorry about that. So I'll start again. You guys are get at managing supply chain is probably the best at that, and we have a big ramp, I guess, in the second half this year. And we're starting to hear some early signs that there might be some constraints in things like memory chips and sometimes some people are even worried about aluminum supply.

    是的,我剛剛是。抱歉,我在摸索這個提問系統好幾十年了(笑),不好意思。我重新開始。你們在供應鏈管理上大概是最強的,而我們今年下半年看起來會有一個很大的拉升。我們也開始聽到一些早期跡象,像是記憶體晶片可能會有一些限制,有些人甚至擔心鋁的供應。

  • I'm just curious if there's anything on your radar that you're watching that could actually constrain us in this kind of second half build that we're all expecting?

    我想了解的是:你們雷達上有沒有在關注什麼,可能真的會限制我們大家所預期的這種下半年增產?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Great question, Steve. Thanks for jumping back in and taking the time with it. I think that the thing that informs right now in supply chain is really how much energy-related exposure people have to supply of materials and what that might do to their cost as one factor. And in the second, as I said previously, is the higher cadence of people and getting them trained up to speed in a sustainable manner for our suppliers to be ready for the ramp up and build.

    是的,Steve,問得很好。謝謝你再加入並花時間處理這個。我認為目前供應鏈的關鍵,第一個因素其實是大家在材料供應上有多少與能源相關的曝險,以及這可能對成本造成什麼影響。第二個,如我先前所說,是人力提升的節奏——如何以可持續的方式招募並訓練到位,讓供應商能為拉升與增產做好準備。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. So nothing specific yet standing out. And then maybe can you just comment, Preston, about the mix that you're seeing relative to vocational versus over the road, I guess, maybe in terms of how the second half is going to ramp up?

    了解。好,所以目前還沒有什麼特別突出的具體項目。那另外,Preston,你能否評論一下你們看到的組合:工程用車(vocational)相對於長途幹線(over the road)的情況?尤其是關於下半年將如何拉升?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's been pretty uniform. We've seen over the road companies getting their recovery now with spot rates up double digit. -- maybe even up to 20%. We've seen contract rates improving. So that's helping our truckload carriers.

    目前相當平均。我們看到長途運輸公司正在復甦,現貨運價(spot rates)上升到雙位數——甚至可能到 20%。我們也看到合約運價改善,這對我們的整車貨運承運商(truckload carriers)有幫助。

  • The vocational market continues to be solid as well as the LTL. So we're seeing work coming in from kind of all sides as people want to make sure that they have their fleet in the right spot for the year and next year.

    工程用車市場也持續穩健,LTL(零擔)也是如此。所以我們看到需求從各個面向進來,因為大家都想確保今年與明年的車隊配置在正確的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

    Kyle Menges,Citigroup。

  • Kyle Menges - Analyst

    Kyle Menges - Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back to some of the comments you made on gross margin, and it sounds like you're expecting improvement maybe quarter-over-quarter as we move throughout the rest of the year. And just I understand volume is a big piece of that, but -- how are you thinking about pricing momentum? And what are you seeing as we get to the second quarter and into the second half? And how do you -- how are you thinking about price/cost as well for the rest of the year?

    我想回到你剛才對毛利率的一些評論。聽起來你們預期隨著今年後續季度推進,毛利率可能會逐季改善。我理解量是很大的一部分,但——你們如何看待定價動能?在進入第二季與下半年時,你們看到了什麼?另外,對今年剩餘時間的價格/成本(price/cost)你們又是怎麼思考的?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Well, I think the year is a long way is what we typically think about for this discussion is really the next quarter. And I would say that we expect to have a price cost favorability in the quarter. I think how that gets informed is again based upon what the market asked for and how raw material pricing finishes up for us.

    是的。我們通常會認為一年還很長,所以這類討論我們主要聚焦在下一季。我會說,我們預期該季度會有價格相對成本的有利因素(price/cost favorability)。而這如何形成,仍取決於市場需求以及原物料價格最後對我們的走勢。

  • So we'll watch carefully how that raw material pricing moves through the year. Obviously, there's some volatility in the market in general, and that will have a consequence. But we do expect to see favorability throughout the year.

    所以我們會密切觀察原物料價格在今年的變化。顯然整體市場存在一些波動,這會帶來影響。但我們確實預期全年都會看到有利因素。

  • Kyle Menges - Analyst

    Kyle Menges - Analyst

  • Helpful. And then we are getting pretty close now to the new EPA mandate. Just curious how the new engine is performing out in the market and if you guys think that it will be ready in time.

    很有幫助。接著,我們現在離新的 EPA 規範已經很近了。想請教新引擎在市場上的表現如何?以及你們是否認為能及時準備就緒?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Kyle, thanks for that question. I think Paccar's team does a great job of having the right engines for our customers and -- so we are really pleased with the engine development programs that are ongoing right now, both for us and we're watching how it's going with our -- with Cummins. Obviously, it was a great partner for us. We look forward to seeing how the implementation rolls through for everyone. -- but I feel great confidence in our teams and what we'll deliver.

    是的,Kyle,謝謝你的問題。我認為 Paccar 的團隊在為客戶提供合適的引擎方面做得非常好——因此我們對目前正在進行的引擎開發計畫非常滿意,無論是我們自身的,也包括我們在關注與 Cummins 的進展。顯然 Cummins 一直是我們很棒的合作夥伴。我們也期待看到這項導入如何在所有人那邊推進。——但我對我們團隊以及我們將交付的成果非常有信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

    Jamie Cook,Truist Securities。

  • Jamie Cook - Analyst

    Jamie Cook - Analyst

  • A nice quarter. I guess my first question, Preston, if you could talk to, as we think through the second half of the year and I guess, throughout the cycle, what the setup for PACCAR is in terms of incremental margins. I mean, last cycle, you delivered above-average incremental margins with a lot of the new product launches that came into the market.

    這是一個不錯的季度。我想我的第一個問題,Preston,若你能談談,當我們思考今年下半年以及整個景氣循環時,PACCAR 在增量利潤率(incremental margins)方面的布局如何。我的意思是,上個循環你們在許多新產品上市後,交出了高於平均的增量利潤率。

  • This cycle, we have the Section 232 benefit. Market share opportunity. I'm just wondering how you'll balance the 2. Should we think of the normalized incremental margins of like 15% to 20% or above that?

    這個循環,我們有《232條款》(Section 232)的效益,以及市占率的機會。我只是想知道你們會如何在兩者之間取得平衡。我們是否應該把常態化的增量利潤率想成大約 15% 到 20%,還是會高於這個水準?

  • And then I guess my second question, can you just talk to sort of channel inventory where PACCAR sitting versus its peers and whether it's peers have made any progress on destocking some of the inflated inventory in the channel?

    然後我想我的第二個問題是,你能否談談通路庫存(channel inventory),PACCAR 目前相較同業的位置,以及同業是否在去化通路中偏高的庫存方面已有任何進展?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let's start with your inventory question, Jamie. I think if you look at our inventory, we feel like it's in very good shape. That's kind of around just under 3 months, 2.8 months, and that compares to 2.2 months back in December. So we've been able to get at least a little bit of inventory back into the market, which feels healthy.

    Jamie,我們先從你的庫存問題開始。我認為如果你看我們的庫存,我們覺得狀況非常好。大約略低於 3 個月,2.8 個月;而去年 12 月時是 2.2 個月。所以我們已經能把至少一點庫存補回市場,這樣的狀態感覺是健康的。

  • I think the industry overall has a higher percentage of inventory I think over four months. So that's kind of the lay of the land from an inventory standpoint. PACCAR feel like we're in really good shape there. Dealers have been able to get a few trucks on the lot and get ready to go. Obviously, inventory for us is affected by our 0% vocational share. So people getting bodies put on trucks as an influencing factor there.

    我認為整體產業的庫存比例更高,我想超過四個月。所以從庫存角度來看,大致就是這樣的現況。PACCAR 覺得我們在這方面的狀態真的很好。經銷商已能在場內備一些卡車並做好出貨準備。當然,對我們而言,庫存也會受到我們 0% 職業用車(vocational)占比的影響,因此客戶為卡車加裝車身(body)是其中一個影響因素。

  • And then if you just think back to the -- your first question was on margin and how we see that developing, we see margin being favorable, and we see that our build percentage at 31.8% in the first quarter is good for our performance and good for our customers really get trucks for us being full in the second quarter means that we feel good about the position we're in.

    再回到你的第一個問題,也就是關於利潤率以及我們如何看待其發展,我們認為利潤率會是有利的;我們第一季的生產占比(build percentage)為 31.8%,這對我們的表現有利,對客戶也有利,因為能拿到卡車。第二季我們滿載生產,代表我們對目前所處的位置感到樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Fisher, UBS.

    Steven Fisher,UBS。

  • Steven Fisher - Analyst

    Steven Fisher - Analyst

  • I just wanted to clarify your answer on the parts acceleration that you expect in the second half. And you mentioned about clients is starting to get healthier. But I think you also mentioned about fuel having an impact in Q1. So I was hoping you could just give us a little more color on what you're expecting that's going to drive the acceleration do you still need to see freight rates continue to rise? Do you need to see fuel costs falling? Is it just more about getting more trucks on the road? Do you need freight shipments to be picking up? Just curious kind of what will drive that acceleration?

    我想釐清一下你對下半年零件業務加速的回答。你提到客戶狀況開始變得更健康。但我想你也提到燃油在第一季有影響。所以我希望你能再多給一些細節,說明你預期將推動加速的因素是什麼:你是否仍需要看到運價持續上升?是否需要燃油成本下降?還是更偏向於有更多卡車上路?是否需要貨運出貨量回升?我只是好奇,究竟是什麼會推動那個加速。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes. You said a lot there, but it's a little bit of all of that, right? As we see the increase of the truck orders. So as more trucks are on the road, and we see our customers' business improve, we see that on the parts side. I mentioned earlier the increased fuel and the operating cost volatility because customers still focus on required maintenance.

    是的。你提了很多點,但其實就是這些因素的綜合,對吧?當我們看到卡車訂單增加,也就是更多卡車在路上跑,且我們看到客戶的業務改善時,我們在零件端也會看到反映。我先前提到燃油上升與營運成本波動增加,因為客戶仍會聚焦在必要的保養維修。

  • And so they have delayed their optional parts purchases. So we see both the volume as well as the mix improving, and that leads to the acceleration through the year. So we see as the truck market improves, we see the parts market follow that.

    因此他們延後了非必要(可選)的零件採購。所以我們看到量與組合(mix)都在改善,這會帶動全年加速。我們認為卡車市場改善時,零件市場也會隨之跟上。

  • Steven Fisher - Analyst

    Steven Fisher - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And then I guess, to what extent have you had any discussions with your customers about the first part of 2027 planning and really just trying to make sure I understand how you're characterizing the expected pickup in the second half of this year, whether it's really a kind of a prebuy or just a buy. I know it's maybe a little bit early to talk about 2027, but I guess a prebuy implies a pull forward. So I guess it seems like it could be a relevant part of the discussion right now. Just curious how you would frame that.

    好的,這很有幫助。然後我想問,你們與客戶就 2027 年初的規劃進行了哪些討論?我主要是想確認你們如何描述今年下半年預期的回升:它究竟比較像是「預先採購(prebuy)」還是單純的「採購(buy)」。我知道現在談 2027 可能還有點早,但我想預先採購意味著需求提前拉動,所以看起來可能是目前討論中相關的一部分。想請教你會如何界定這件事。

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I like the way you framed it, Steve. I think that prebuy versus buy I think there's a little bit of both going on, honestly. I think that there's some buy going on because of the demand that the customers are getting healthy and once they're fleet aged to come back to where they want it. So that's a bit of the buy side. And I think on the prebuy side, obviously, there's a cost impact to a 35-milligram engine, and I think they're sensitive to that.

    Steve,我喜歡你這樣的表述。我認為預先採購與採購,其實兩者都有一些在發生。坦白說,我覺得確實是兩者並存。我認為有一部分是因為需求:客戶的狀況變得更健康,且他們希望把車隊車齡拉回到理想水準,所以這是採購的一面。而在預先採購方面,顯然 35 毫克(35-milligram)引擎會帶來成本影響,我想他們對此很敏感。

  • And so I think there's some of the people that are looking at putting orders in front of it. So both of those are influencing the year looking into 2027, I think we'll see how the year ileostomies the full year retail looks like and build looks like, and that will probably give some information about what '27 will look like?

    因此我認為有些人會考慮在那之前先下單。所以這兩者都在影響今年、並延伸到 2027 年的展望。我想我們會看看今年全年零售(retail)與產量(build)最終會是什麼樣子,這大概會提供一些關於 2027 年可能樣貌的資訊。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes. Just to add is the combo of the buy versus prebuys, the second half of the year is pretty well balanced in terms of the fill between the third and fourth quarter. If it was more weighted to a prebuy, would see that demand towards the higher in the end of the year, but we see a really nice balance in both fourth quarter.

    是的。補充一下,採購與預先採購的組合,使得下半年在第三季與第四季之間的填補(fill)相當均衡。如果更偏向預先採購,我們會看到需求更集中在年底,但我們看到第四季也呈現很好的平衡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

    Angel Castillo,Morgan Stanley。

  • Angel Castillo - Equity Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe I've missed this, but I wanted to go back to the EPA dynamic. I guess, as the EPA actually formalized the low NOx emissions rule that are communicated I guess, back at the end of last year. And does that have any bearing on the ability of the industry to ultimately launch and move forward with these engines that meet the kind of latest low NOx standard?

    也許我漏聽了,但我想回到 EPA 的動態。我想問,EPA 是否已正式定案(formalized)低 NOx 排放規則,也就是我想在去年底所傳達的那項?而這是否會影響產業最終推出並推進符合最新低 NOx 標準的引擎的能力?

  • And likewise, I guess any implications on the customer's ability to I guess, to move forward with any orders or potential pre-buy. Just curious if that's -- where we're at on that. And if we don't have any formalized kind of releases there, I guess, if you have any insights as to when we might be able to get that?

    同樣地,我想問這對客戶推進任何訂單或潛在預先採購的能力是否有任何影響。只是好奇目前進展到哪裡。如果目前還沒有任何正式定案的發布,我想請教你是否有任何洞見,關於我們可能何時能看到相關定案。

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think the formalized release that they've made, Angel, is that it will be a 35-milligram standard come 2027, that's the law. And that's the there's not any kind of modification expected to that in terms of it being a 35-milligram standard for new engines in 2027 and the parameters around that, I think, are things that they will have to contemplate or are contemplating based on customer and market feedback.

    Angel,我認為他們已正式發布的內容是:到 2027 年將採用 35 毫克標準(35-milligram standard),這是法律。而就 2027 年新引擎必須符合 35 毫克標準這件事,以及其相關框架,我不預期會有任何修改。至於其周邊參數,我認為他們將必須、或正在基於客戶與市場回饋加以考量。

  • Angel Castillo - Equity Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then I wanted to go back to maybe the margin discussion. Could you, I guess, just give us the shipments number that your deliveries guidance you provided for 2Q, could you give that by region, specifically, how much you expect US and Canada versus Europe? And then if we could kind of revisit the 13.5% gross profit margins, I get you mentioned, I think, a little bit more uplift from trucks maybe is a little bit of a mixed drag on the overall and why you don't see that kind of incremental step change in 2Q versus 1Q.

    了解。然後我想回到利潤率的討論。你能否提供你們對第二季交付指引中的出貨量(shipments)數字,並按地區拆分,特別是美國與加拿大相較於歐洲各是多少?另外,如果我們再回頭看 13.5% 的毛利率(gross profit margins),我知道你提到卡車可能帶來更多提升,但在整體上有一些組合拖累(mix drag),以及為什麼你們看不到第二季相較第一季出現那種增量式的階梯變化(step change)。

  • But I guess I wasn't entirely clear to me if there's any other drags beyond that that keep it from being more of a material step change quarter-over-quarter just given the so.

    但我不太確定,除了那些之外,是否還有其他拖累因素,使得季對季無法出現更明顯的階梯式改善,尤其是在這樣的情況下。

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Just take the question in saying that we expect in Q2 volumes are up around the world, pretty much in every market. So we've had build rate increases everywhere. And so that's what's driving the total increase in volume. And I think we've kind of spent quite a bit of time already describing that 13.5% being volume-based improvement as well as slight price cost with still pressure on pricing in the market as tariffs maybe haven't been fully rolled through. Also, PACCAR performing really well in terms of getting share of buildup.

    是的。就這個問題來說,我們預期第二季全球各地的量都會上升,幾乎每個市場都是如此。因此我們在各地都提高了生產速率(build rate)。這就是推動總量增加的原因。我想我們也已花了不少時間說明,13.5% 主要來自量的改善,以及些微的價格/成本(price-cost)改善;同時市場定價仍有壓力,因為關稅可能尚未完全反映到價格中。此外,PACCAR 在取得增產(buildup)份額方面表現非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lewis Merrick, PNB Paribas.

    Lewis Merrick,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。

  • Lewis Merrick - Analyst

    Lewis Merrick - Analyst

  • We've heard about customers potentially pushing back their delivery dates for trucks. I'm just wondering, are you seeing any evidence of this occurring?

    我們聽說客戶可能會把卡車的交車日期往後延。我想請問,你們是否看到任何這種情況正在發生的跡象?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I don't recognize that in our backlog. We have not seen any of that.

    沒有,我們的在手訂單(backlog)裡沒有看到這種情況。我們沒有看到任何這樣的情形。

  • Lewis Merrick - Analyst

    Lewis Merrick - Analyst

  • Okay. To clear. And just quickly on the tariff topic. Could we get your latest understanding on when we could expect the previous was 3.75% SLP credit to be applied.

    好的。釐清一下。另外很快問一下關稅議題。可否請你們更新一下最新的理解:先前提到的 3.75% SLP 信用額度預計何時可以適用?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, it's fairly well defined for the truck side of the 232 and so now it's about when we can apply for them and get them back, and we would expect that to be in the not distant future.

    嗯,針對卡車端的 232 條款其實定義相當清楚,所以現在的問題在於我們何時能提出申請並把款項拿回來;我們預期這會在不久的將來發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Group,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • So on that prebuy versus buy sort of discussion from earlier, do you have a sense on the buy part of it? How much of that is sort of growth fleet plans, fleet growth plans or just sort of pent-up replacement? And to the extent that there's just more replacement, do you think as we start replacing more after aging the fleet, does that naturally pressure some of the parts growth?

    回到先前談到的「預購(prebuy)對比購買(buy)」的討論,你對「buy」那一部分有沒有一些感覺?其中有多少是車隊成長計畫、車隊擴張計畫,或只是累積已久的汰換需求?另外,如果主要只是更多汰換,那當我們在車隊老化後開始進行更多汰換時,是否會自然對零件業務的成長造成一些壓力?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think that what's going on is that you kind of said the words in the buy side of it, there's this -- it's been a tough little for some of our customers. And now they have the opportunity, hopefully, where they'll be -- we'll see better financial performance, which is enabling them to allocate capital to trucks. -- keeping their fleet at a reasonable age is good for them, and it's also good for them from an operating cost standpoint when they're buying the Kenworth, Peterbilt or DAF trucks, they're getting a highly efficient truck into the fleet.

    我認為目前發生的情況是,你在「buy」那一端其實已經說到重點了:對我們一些客戶來說,這段時間一直不太好過。現在他們有機會——希望如此——看到更好的財務表現,這讓他們能把資本配置到卡車上。把車隊維持在合理的車齡對他們有利;而且從營運成本角度來看也有利,因為當他們購買 Kenworth、Peterbilt 或 DAF 卡車時,是把高效率的卡車納入車隊。

  • So they're taking out something that has lower fuel economy from past and now is the best fuel economy possible for them. So it's a good operating performance benefit. But it's kind of a tie of their financial performance and then the truck replacement cycle that they're trying to keep up with.

    因此他們把過去油耗較差的車換掉,改成對他們而言油耗表現最好的車。這在營運績效上是很好的效益。但這其實是他們的財務表現,與他們想要跟上的卡車汰換週期之間的一種連動。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just lastly, orders have doubled year-to-date versus what they were doing a year ago. And you're still talking about a competitive pricing environment. Why do you think we're not seeing a bigger or faster improvement in pricing?

    了解。最後再問一下:今年以來的訂單量相較去年同期已經翻倍,但你們仍在談競爭激烈的定價環境。你認為為什麼我們沒有看到更大或更快的價格改善?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I think that the orders are sometimes around multiyear things and there's some projections on orders. And I think orders isn't the cleanest thing to measure. I think it's probably a more clean measure to look at what's happening in the industry through build. And if you look at Bill, that gives you a clean indicator of where things are.

    我想訂單有時候涉及多年期的事項,訂單本身也包含一些預估。我認為用訂單來衡量並不是最乾淨的方式。更乾淨的衡量方式可能是看產業端的實際生產(build)狀況;如果你看 build,那會給你一個清楚的指標,顯示情況走到哪裡。

  • So the cleanest way to look at is build and retail. If you build it your retail at orders don't necessarily for everyone come through the same way with build in Q1. We feel good about the position. And we do still think that there are some orders left in the second half to be had.

    所以最乾淨的看法是看 build 和零售(retail)。如果你生產、你就零售;而訂單不一定對每家公司都會以同樣方式在第一季反映到 build。我們對自身的定位感到樂觀。我們也仍然認為下半年還有一些訂單可以爭取。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

    Steve Volkmann,Jefferies。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • I figured it out this time. Just a quick follow-up. I wanted to hit that off. So just a quick follow-up. I know you guys give sort of average prices in the 10-Q. I'm just curious if you might have those available for truck and parts, if not, I'll wait for the Q.

    我這次終於搞清楚了。簡單追問一下。我想先把那個點帶過。就快速追問:我知道你們在 10-Q 裡會提供一些平均價格。我想問你們是否手邊有卡車和零件的平均價格資料?如果沒有,我就等到季報。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • For the first quarter compared to the first quarter last year, you'll see price up 2%. And you'll see our cost, unfortunately, is up higher than that. So that made our margins down in Truck segment -- and then price on the parts side was up 6% --

    以第一季相較去年第一季來看,你會看到價格上漲 2%。而不幸的是,我們的成本上升幅度高於此。因此卡車事業部的毛利率下滑——另外零件端的價格上漲 6%——

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • But I think if you look at sequentially, you'd see price was roughly flat. Cost was down sequentially for truck, more than 1% and sequentially for parts, price was up a couple percent and cost was only up 1%.

    但我想如果你看季對季,你會看到價格大致持平。卡車端成本季對季下降,超過 1%;零件端則是價格上升約幾個百分點,而成本只上升 1%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Thein, Raymond James.

    Tim Thein,Raymond James。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • I'll just start the first question is just on the customer mix. within the backlog and how that may or may not be influencing the truck margins. And so I'm just thinking, Preston on the on-highway side, at least in North America, you've always skewed more towards the small and midsized fleets, perhaps not as much today as you once did years ago. But presumably that some of the WIP the fluctuations we've seen in diesel costs can sometimes hit those smaller carriers a bit harder.

    我先從第一個問題開始,關於在手訂單中的客戶組合,以及這是否可能正在影響卡車毛利率。我在想,Preston,就公路(on-highway)業務而言,至少在北美,你們一向比較偏向小型與中型車隊,或許不像多年前那麼明顯,但仍是如此。可是我們看到柴油成本的波動,有時會對那些較小的承運商造成更大的衝擊。

  • So I'm just curious if that's not the only factor, but essentially the punch line is, is there a mix view within how you're filling the backlog between some of those large mega fleets versus your historical kind of bread-and-butter small fleet.

    所以我想問的是,這不一定是唯一因素,但重點是:在你們填補在手訂單時,客戶組合上是否出現一些變化——例如大型超大型車隊(mega fleets)相對於你們歷來的主力客群(小型車隊)?

  • R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    R. Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Tim, I think that it's an interesting concept gives me a little thought, but I don't really think that it's significant in terms of that. I think we've kind of got a broad mix of customers that are buying trucks right now. I agree with your thought that the fuel surcharges are maybe more cash impactful to the smaller customers, while they, in fact, everyone to be more sensitive to it. but I don't think it's really informing what's going on. I think it's just that we're seeing the beginning of a market recovery.

    Tim,我覺得這是個有趣的觀點,讓我稍微思考一下,但我不認為這在影響上是顯著的。我認為目前買卡車的客戶組合相當廣泛。我同意你的想法:燃油附加費(fuel surcharges)對較小客戶的現金流影響可能更大;雖然事實上大家都會更敏感。但我不認為這真的在主導目前的情況。我認為我們只是看到市場復甦的開始。

  • We're seeing things starting to improve for most all of our customers. They're starting to get better rates. They're starting to buy more trucks. And so I think it positions PACCAR well for the next coming period of time, right, for the next quarter and beyond for the year and beyond for a strengthening market and strengthening performance.

    我們看到大多數客戶的狀況開始改善。他們開始拿到更好的運價。他們開始買更多卡車。因此我認為這讓 PACCAR 在接下來一段時間——對,下一季以及今年後續、甚至更往後——在市場走強、表現走強的環境下,處於很好的位置。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe another one relevant for this deep in the queue. But it relates to the lease and rental customers. Sometimes, we think about them being they can be a bit of like a canary in the coal mine when truckload markets inflect. You start to see a pull on lease and rental fleets.

    好的。再問一個,可能跟我排得很後面有關,但這題與租賃與租車客戶有關。有時我們會把他們視為卡車運輸市場轉折時的「煤礦裡的金絲雀」:當市場開始轉向時,你會先看到租賃與租車車隊被拉動。

  • I'm just looking at the pathway fleet I guess similar to what you would see in some of the big publicly traded lease rental guys has been declining quite a bit over the past few years.

    我在看你們的 Paccar Lease 車隊(我想類似於一些大型上市租賃租車公司的車隊)在過去幾年下降得相當多。

  • I'm just curious if you're starting to maybe see any change in terms of utilization or aspirations to maybe reverse that and start expanding the Paccar Lease fleet? Just anyway, just kind of what, if any, clues you're picking up from that cohort of your customer base?

    我想請問你們是否開始看到任何變化,例如使用率(utilization)提升,或是有意願扭轉趨勢、開始擴大 Paccar Lease 車隊?總之,你們從這一群客戶(你們客戶基礎中的這個族群)那邊,有沒有觀察到任何線索?

  • Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • We're seeing a little bit of increase in the utilization, but also another indicator would be the used truck market. and we're seeing price utilization and volume demand starting to strengthen as well. So I think between the beginnings of the increase on both of those factors is just another indication that we're starting to see the market starting to see the market improve.

    我們看到使用率有些微上升;另外一個指標是二手卡車市場。我們也看到價格、使用率以及需求量開始轉強。因此我認為,這兩個因素都開始上升,這是另一個跡象,顯示我們開始看到市場正在改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

    目前佇列中沒有其他問題。公司方面是否有任何補充說明?

  • Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Kenneth Hastings - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, Maria.

    我們想感謝各位參與本次電話會議,也謝謝你,Maria。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    各位女士先生,PACCAR 的法說會到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。