帕卡 (PCAR) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天的電話會議將被錄音，如有任何人反對，請於此時中斷連線。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹 PACCAR 投資人關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。Hastings 先生，請開始。

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Baney, President; and Brice Poplawski, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）我叫 Ken Hastings，是 PACCAR 的投資人關係總監。今天早上與我一同出席的有：執行長 Preston Feight；總裁 Kevin Baney；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。

Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

今天所呈現的部分資訊屬於前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能影響預期結果的風險與不確定性。如需更多資訊，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及 paccar.com 的投資人關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹 Preston Feight。

Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, PACCAR's outstanding employees did an excellent job of increasing production to provide our customers with highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. Their hard work, high performance and dedication is enabling PACCAR to continue increasing build rates in our factories around the world.

謝謝你，Ken。各位早安。在第二季，PACCAR 優秀的員工在提升產量方面表現出色，為客戶提供業界最高品質的卡車與運輸解決方案。他們的辛勤付出、高績效與投入，使 PACCAR 能夠持續在全球各地工廠提高生產節奏。

PACCAR's second-quarter revenues were $7.5 billion, and net income was $752 million, an increase of 24% from the first-quarter. These results were driven by strong truck division performance. PACCAR Parts performed well and achieved record quarterly revenues of $1.75 billion and quarterly pretax income of $417 million. PACCAR Financial also performed well, achieving pretax income of $124 million.

PACCAR 第二季營收為 75 億美元，淨利為 7.52 億美元，較第一季成長 24%。這些成果主要由卡車事業部的強勁表現所帶動。PACCAR Parts 表現良好，第二季零件營收創下單季新高達 17.5 億美元，單季稅前盈餘為 4.17 億美元。PACCAR Financial 亦表現穩健，稅前盈餘達 1.24 億美元。

Now looking at this year's US and Canadian heavy truck market. The US economy is growing and the truck market is strengthening as freight rates have increased and regulatory clarity has been provided. First half retail sales were 105,000 trucks, and we expect that the second half could be around 145,000, resulting in a full year market size of around 250,000 units.

接著來看今年美國與加拿大的重型卡車市場。美國經濟正在成長，隨著運價上升以及法規明確化，卡車市場也在轉強。上半年零售銷量為 105,000 輛，我們預期下半年可能約 145,000 輛，使全年市場規模約為 250,000 輛。

In Europe, the economy is growing modestly and the truck market is healthy. We project the 2026 European above 16-tonne market size to be around 310,000 trucks. DAF's premium trucks are providing customers with the latest technology and the best operating efficiency. This year's South American above 16-tonne market, where DAF trucks are desired by customers for their durability and advanced technology is expected to be in the range of 100,000 to 110,000 vehicles.

在歐洲，經濟溫和成長，卡車市場維持健康。我們預估 2026 年歐洲 16 噸以上市場規模約為 310,000 輛卡車。DAF 的高階卡車為客戶提供最新技術與最佳營運效率。今年南美 16 噸以上市場（DAF 卡車因耐用性與先進技術而深受客戶青睞）預期將落在 100,000 至 110,000 輛之間。

In the second quarter, PACCAR's truck deliveries increased from 33,000 to 38,700. third-quarter deliveries are estimated to grow and be around 42,000 as build rate increases are partially offset by the normal European summer shutdown period. PACCAR's Truck, Parts and Other second-quarter gross margins increased from 13.1% to 14.4% due to very good overall performance. third-quarter margins are forecast to be a strong 14.5% and then further increase in the fourth-quarter.

第二季 PACCAR 的卡車交付量由 33,000 輛增加至 38,700 輛。第三季交付量預估將隨著產能提升而成長至約 42,000 輛，但部分增幅會被歐洲夏季例行停工期所抵銷。PACCAR 的卡車、零件及其他業務第二季毛利率由 13.1% 提升至 14.4%，反映整體表現非常良好。第三季毛利率預測將維持強勁、約 14.5%，並在第四季進一步提升。

PACCAR's exceptional range of trucks, compelling parts business, industry-leading financial services and customer-focused product development strategy, position the company well for an excellent second half of 2026 and future.

PACCAR 卓越的卡車產品組合、具吸引力的零件業務、業界領先的金融服務，以及以客戶為中心的產品開發策略，使公司在 2026 年下半年及未來具備良好定位，可望有優異表現。

Kevin will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, Financial Services and other business highlights. Kevin?

接下來 Kevin 將就 PACCAR Parts、金融服務以及其他業務重點提供最新進展。Kevin？

Thank you, Preston. PACCAR Parts achieved record second-quarter revenues of $1.75 billion and good profits of $417 million. Gross margins increased to 29.8%. Increasing truck utilization is beginning to lead to more parts and service activity and we expect higher parts sales growth in the second half. Revenue from PACCAR Parts fleet services program grew 8% in the second-quarter, which is an indicator that customers are beginning to increase parts purchases.

謝謝你，Preston。PACCAR Parts 第二季營收創新高達 17.5 億美元，並取得 4.17 億美元的良好獲利。毛利率提升至 29.8%。卡車使用率提高正開始帶動更多零件與維修服務活動，我們預期下半年零件銷售成長將更高。PACCAR Parts 車隊服務方案的營收在第二季成長 8%，顯示客戶正開始增加零件採購。

For the full year, we estimate parts sales growth in the range of 3% to 5%. PACCAR Financial Services pretax income was a robust $124 million. Their high performance is a result of steady finance margins and strengthening used truck markets. Earlier this month, the EPA clarified a key NOx-related emissions regulation. The clarification extends the time line to introduce 35-milligram NOx engines.

就全年而言，我們估計零件銷售成長約在 3% 至 5% 的區間。PACCAR 金融服務稅前盈餘強勁，達 1.24 億美元。其高績效來自穩定的融資利差以及走強的二手卡車市場。本月稍早，EPA 釐清了一項與 NOx 相關的關鍵排放法規。該釐清將導入 35 毫克 NOx 引擎的時程予以延後。

Next year, customers will be able to buy the current generation of engines with an associated nonconformance fee. This will be beneficial for customers as it will ensure new technology is fully validated before being purchased by customers. It is also likely to have a positive impact on the size and strength of next year's truck market.

明年，客戶將可在支付相應的不符合規定費用（nonconformance fee）的情況下，購買現行世代的引擎。這將有利於客戶，因為可確保新技術在客戶購買前已充分驗證。這也很可能對明年卡車市場的規模與強度帶來正面影響。

This year, PACCAR is planning capital investments in the range of $700 million to $750 million and R&D expenditures in the range of $450 million to $480 million. PACCAR is investing in customer-focused technology and innovation projects, including advanced flexible manufacturing that enhances efficient local-for-local production, the development of next-generation clean diesel engines, industry-leading hybrid and electric powertrains and integrated vehicle -- connected vehicle services. We are looking forward to the success that our customers, dealers and PACCAR will experience in the coming quarters and years.

今年，PACCAR 規劃資本投資約 7 億至 7.5 億美元，研發支出約 4.5 億至 4.8 億美元。PACCAR 正投資於以客戶為中心的技術與創新專案，包括可提升「在地供應在地」高效率生產的先進彈性製造、下一代潔淨柴油引擎的開發、業界領先的混合動力與電動動力系統，以及整合式車輛—車聯網服務。我們期待在未來幾季與未來幾年，客戶、經銷商與 PACCAR 都能共同迎來成功。

We are now pleased to answer your questions.

現在我們很高興回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

（接線員指示）Steve Volkmann，Jefferies。

I'm wondering if we can dive in on the gross margin, I think this quarter came in a bit stronger than you had expected. What are the moving parts that would explain that?

我想更深入談談毛利率。我認為本季的表現比你們原先預期的略強。有哪些變動因素可以解釋這點？

Sure. There's a couple of things. Thanks for the question. Probably one of the things is volume of trucks was higher. And then most significantly, I think our local-for-local production is benefiting PACCAR. I also think that the team did a fantastic job in cost control, our price versus cost was favorable for us, even more than we thought it would be. So that was also a positive. Those are the biggest majorities of what influenced it. And as I said, local-for-local production provides some tariff benefits to us.

當然。有幾個因素。謝謝你的提問。其中之一可能是卡車銷量更高。而最重要的是，我認為我們的「在地供應在地」生產模式正在讓 PACCAR 受益。我也認為團隊在成本控管上做得非常出色，我們的售價相對成本的差距對我們更有利，甚至比我們原先預期的還要好。所以這也是正面因素。以上是影響毛利率的主要因素。而如我所說，「在地供應在地」生產也為我們帶來一些關稅方面的好處。

Okay. Great. And what are you seeing in the market relative to pricing because you have a little bit more, I guess, local-for-local than some of your competitors. Are you seeing overall pricing kind of coming up in the market, which gives you some opportunity?

好的。了解。那在市場定價方面你們看到什麼情況？因為相較一些競爭對手，你們的「在地供應在地」比例更高一些。你們是否看到整體市場定價正在上升，進而帶來一些機會？

Yes. I think what's happening in the general market is our customers are starting to experience better operating conditions for themselves. Spot rates are up 20%, contract rates are up 6.5%. So we're seeing favorability for how they're operating their businesses. I think the driver pool has become a little bit more constrained, which is helping them realize operating benefits. And I think we all share in that together. So we've seen some favorability in terms of how we're able to price trucks as we look forward.

是的。我認為整體市場正在發生的情況是，我們的客戶開始感受到自身營運環境改善。現貨運價上升 20%，合約運價上升 6.5%。因此我們看到他們在經營業務方面更有利。我認為司機人力供給變得稍微更吃緊，這也幫助他們實現營運上的效益。我想我們都能共同分享這些改善。因此，展望未來，我們在卡車定價能力方面也看到一些有利因素。

Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.

Jerry Revich，富國銀行。

I thought the profit per truck performance was especially strong in the quarter. I'm wondering was there any IEEPA refund benefitI or anything along those lines that contributed to the really strong cost improvement?

我覺得本季每輛卡車的獲利表現特別強勁。我想請問是否有任何 IEEPA 退稅利益或類似項目，促成了如此顯著的成本改善？

I think if you look at that performance, it was largely driven from a net price cost benefit. And the biggest part of that was really the team's operating effectiveness and good warranty performance by the team, efficiencies to the local-for-local, but we did have a net tariff benefit. We had some tariffs, we have to pay, of course, with the raw material stuff, and then we had some offset tariffs, but the net was -- the bigger part of it was really operating strength.

我想如果你看那個表現，主要是由淨售價與成本之間的利差改善所驅動。其中最大的一部分，確實來自團隊的營運效能與良好的保固表現、在地化（local-for-local）帶來的效率；不過我們也確實有淨關稅利益。當然，原物料相關我們有一些關稅需要支付，同時也有一些抵銷性的關稅，但淨額而言——更大的部分其實是營運面的強勁表現。

Is it possible just to quantify the refund that you saw in the quarter, just to put a finer point on the run rate profit per truck?

是否可以量化一下你們本季看到的退稅金額，好讓我們更精準地理解每輛卡車獲利的常態水準？

No, we didn't put that out, and we think that it will remain strong. So we think that the tariff position we had in the second-quarter will look similar to the third-quarter.

不，我們沒有對外公布那個數字，而且我們認為它會維持強勁。所以我們認為第二季的關稅部位在第三季看起來會相近。

That's really great to hear. And then what we have been hearing until the EPA's new ruling was that you folks for the fourth-quarter deliveries were pulling back discounts. And so the price realization was set to improve by over $5,000 in the fourth-quarter versus the third-quarter. Can you just update is that still happening considering the more phased approach to the EPA '27 rollout?

這真的很高興聽到。另外，在 EPA 新裁定出來之前，我們聽到的是你們對第四季交車正在收回折扣。因此，第四季相較第三季的價格實現（price realization）預計可改善超過 5,000 美元。考量到 EPA 2027 年（'27）導入改採更分階段的方式，能否更新一下：這件事還在發生嗎？

Well, I think the EPA has done a very nice job in paying attention to what the industry's needs are. I appreciate the work the administration has done in helping make sure we put fully validated products out into the marketplace. So it's been nice to work with the EPA and the customers and the administration to put a government business relationship in place that work is working well.

我認為 EPA 在關注產業需求方面做得非常好。我也很感謝政府在協助確保我們把完全驗證過的產品投放到市場上所做的工作。因此，能與 EPA、客戶以及政府合作，建立一個運作良好的政商合作關係，這點很不錯。

I think what they did is they took not all of the prebuy, but they kind of smooth it, and I think it creates a stronger position for 2027 to be a good market for the industry. And so I think that's kind of how we experiencing that. And if it's a good market for our customers, then it tends to be a good market for us as well.

我認為他們做的是：並非把所有的預購（prebuy）都保留，但有點把它平滑化；我覺得這讓 2027 年對產業而言會是更強的市場態勢。所以我想我們的感受大致是如此。而如果對我們的客戶而言是好市場，通常對我們也會是好市場。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

Tami Zakaria，摩根大通。

Good morning. Congrats on excellent results. Two questions. The first one is on gross margin guide for the third-quarter. It seems like you're expecting somewhat sequentially flattish gross margin despite deliveries being higher and North America probably being a higher mix given the shutdowns in Europe. So what underpins that margin guide? Why wouldn't margin be better sequentially? Is there any cost headwind you're expecting in the third-quarter that you didn't have in the second-quarter?

早安。恭喜你們有非常出色的成果。兩個問題。第一個是關於第三季的毛利率指引。看起來你們預期毛利率在季比上大致持平，儘管交車量更高，而且由於歐洲停工，北美的占比可能更高。那麼這個毛利率指引的依據是什麼？為什麼毛利率不會在季比上更好？第三季是否有任何你們預期的成本逆風，是第二季沒有的？

Great question, Tami. Thanks for asking. There's a couple of things that factor one you're fully aware of, right, which is that as truck increases, it has a ratio mix to parts, and that increase has an impact. So that's why it's around 14.5%. And there also happens to be in the third-quarter where probably the mix of our actual trucks we're building is shifting a little bit.

很好的問題，Tami。謝謝提問。有幾個因素，其中一個你非常清楚，對吧：當卡車量增加時，卡車相對於零件（parts）的比率/組合會改變，而這個增加會帶來影響。所以這就是為什麼大約在 14.5% 左右。另外第三季也剛好出現我們實際生產的卡車組合可能會有些微移動。

So maybe a little less occasional, a little bit more fleet trucks that we're building. So put those two things together, and we stay with a strong margin. But the nice thing is with the higher build, we see profit increasing in the quarter and continuing to strengthen through the year.

也許偶發性（occasional）客戶的占比少一點，而我們生產的車型中車隊（fleet）用車多一點。把這兩件事加在一起，我們仍維持強勁的毛利率。但好的一點是，隨著產量提高，我們看到本季獲利增加，並且在今年內持續走強。

Got it. That is helpful. And then my second question is on the NOx compliant engine. If I remember correctly, you expected that to be, call it, $8,000 to $10,000 more expensive than a noncompliant one. But with the NCPs that have been announced, it seems like the fine could be lower than the cost of a compliant engine. Just wanted to know if that -- if that's how you interpreted it? And if so, how could that impact your customer behavior next year when the EPA NOx regulation goes into effect?

了解，這很有幫助。那我的第二個問題是關於符合 NOx 規範的引擎。如果我沒記錯，你們原先預期它會比不符合規範的引擎貴大約 8,000 到 10,000 美元。但隨著已公布的 NCP（不符合規範處置/罰則）方案，看起來罰金可能低於一具符合規範引擎的成本。我想確認一下你們是否也是這樣解讀？如果是，當 EPA 的 NOx 法規明年生效時，這可能會如何影響你們客戶明年的行為？

Tami, thanks for the second question. Good question. I think a lot of information came out just as recently as July 9 on that when the EPA made the announcement. It's still preliminary. It's a notice of proposed rulemaking. So there's still a comment period that we're in. So things could even change from here. We'll have to see what that looks like. We probably won't get a final answer until much later in the year.

Tami，謝謝第二個問題。好問題。我想很多資訊是在 7 月 9 日 EPA 發布公告時才剛出來。目前仍屬初步。這是一份「擬議規則制定通知」（notice of proposed rulemaking）。所以我們仍在意見徵詢期內。因此接下來也可能還會有變化。我們得看看最後會是什麼樣子。我們可能要到今年稍晚才會得到最終答案。

But the way it's currently proposed is we would expect to see NCPs running at something like $6,000 to $7,000 range per truck. And as you noted, the cost of fully compliant 35-milligram engines would likely be higher than that. But I think a lot of it went into the discussion was the desire to make sure that the engines from all the manufacturers and engine companies were fully validated and the customers had enough time with them.

但以目前的提案來看，我們預期每輛卡車的 NCP 大概會落在 6,000 到 7,000 美元的區間。而如你所指出，完全符合 35 毫克標準的引擎成本很可能會高於此。不過我認為討論中很大一部分，是希望確保所有製造商與引擎公司的引擎都已充分驗證，並且讓客戶有足夠時間使用與熟悉。

So that was a big portion of what happened here. So I think the result of that is, as shared earlier, means that the end of the year will improve, and then I think it bodes well for a good 2027 operating condition for the customers and for us.

所以這是這次變動中很大的一部分。因此我認為其結果是，如先前分享的，年底的情況會改善；而且我認為這也有利於 2027 年對客戶與我們而言都能有良好的營運條件。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Preston, you just touched on this, I think maybe Kevin did earlier, but the EPA shift or proposed rule may benefit 2027 a bit. And my question is a bit of a soft one. But when you talk to customers now, are people prebuying? Or do they just need trucks? There's a couple of things that may be tightened up fleet dynamics. And so I'm curious about -- maybe it's a soft question, but like what people are buying for. And then in the '27, those comments are around continued prebuy or more just that people have confidence in the engine and are shying away from it?

Preston，你剛剛提到這點，我想 Kevin 先前也提過：EPA 的調整或擬議規則可能會讓 2027 年受益一些。我的問題有點偏軟性。但當你們現在和客戶交談時，大家是在預購（prebuy）嗎？還是他們只是需要卡車？有幾個因素可能讓車隊動態更趨緊縮。所以我很好奇——也許是個偏軟性問題——大家買車的主要目的/動機是什麼？另外對於 2027 年，那些評論是指預購會持續，還是更多是因為大家對引擎有信心，因此不再迴避它？

Yes, sure. Good question. Good to think through that a little bit. I think part of what's happening is they've been in a tough operating condition. Our customers, many of them have been in a tough operating condition for a few years now. That meant they've been careful with capital. They've probably kept trucks longer than they would have wanted to.

是的，當然。好問題。值得稍微想一想。我認為部分正在發生的情況是：他們一直處在艱難的營運環境。我們的客戶中，很多人在過去幾年都處於艱難的營運狀況。這意味著他們在資本支出上一直很謹慎。他們可能把卡車使用年限拉得比原本希望的更長。

And you can see that, especially as a pronounced first half of this year, where it really showed up in 105,000 trucks of retail. I think that now what's happening is they're trying to get back into their normal operating models. The trucks we're building today are the most fuel-efficient trucks we've ever built. So they're very helpful to the customers to operate them. The driver environment is the best it's ever been.

你可以看到這點，尤其在今年上半年特別明顯，零售量達到 105,000 輛時就很清楚。我認為現在正在發生的是，他們正試圖回到正常的營運模式。我們今天生產的卡車，是我們有史以來最省油的卡車。因此對客戶的營運非常有幫助。駕駛員環境也是有史以來最好的一次。

The engine is performing the best they've ever performed. So we have a great product lineup out there. And I think that since they have the operating capital to use, they'd like to be using those trucks. Since they're just starting to do that, it seems like it's going to ramp through the second half, like I said, probably 145,000 retail second half. And then I think we should expect a very healthy market in '27.

引擎的表現是他們有史以來最好的。因此我們在市場上有非常強的產品陣容。而且我認為，既然他們有可運用的營運資金，他們就會想要使用那些卡車。由於他們才剛開始這麼做，看起來會在下半年逐步拉升；如我所說，下半年零售量可能約145,000輛。然後我認為我們應該預期在'27年會有非常健康的市場。

Okay. And then just the EPA, does that advantage any of your competitors more through sort-up credits? Is that any headwind to market share or price in '27, I'll stop there.

好的。那再問一下EPA，這是否會透過某種「補足」抵換額度而讓你們某些競爭對手更有利？這在'27年是否會對市占或價格造成任何逆風？我先問到這裡。

Actually, I think that the -- maybe the situation is very leveling now and maybe to our advantage a little bit in that the NCPs are allowing everybody to make sure we get the right products out there validated so the customers get the experience with the products, they get the experience with our products and the quality of product we're able to introduce in a more gradual way versus it being step change.

其實我認為——目前的情況可能變得非常「拉平」，甚至對我們略有利一些，因為NCP讓每個人都能確保把正確的產品推出並完成驗證，讓客戶能夠體驗產品、體驗我們的產品，以及我們能以更循序漸進的方式導入的產品品質，而不是一次性的劇烈變動。

But the fine level, if you look at the shape of the curve for the fines for most manufacturers, I think maybe all manufacturers as it's currently written, the fine is going to be in that $6,000 to $7,000 range if they choose to offer today's products. And so that kind of levels it out also.

但就罰款水準而言，如果你看大多數製造商的罰款曲線形狀，我想也許所有製造商在目前條文下都是如此：如果他們選擇提供今天的產品，罰款將落在6,000到7,000美元的區間。因此這也在某種程度上把差異拉平了。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

Your comments about '27, can you take us through your thoughts right now when you're speaking to your suppliers about the cadence 4Q into 1Q? And then second question on the parts business. Can you help us get a little more comfort with the parts growth exiting '26? Obviously, the back half of the year has to step up a little bit. Just trying to think that through and not to give '27 parts guidance, but just how to think about that growth rate exiting '26 as we think about '27.

你對'27年的評論，能否帶我們了解一下你目前在與供應商溝通時，對4Q到1Q節奏的看法？第二個問題是關於零件業務。你能否幫助我們對'26年末零件成長更有信心一些？顯然下半年必須稍微加速。我只是想把這件事想清楚；不是要你提供'27年零件指引，而是我們在思考'27年時，該如何看待'26年末的零件成長率。

Thanks, David. I'll take the first one and Kevin can cover the parts one. We can add anything he wants to the first one, too. The quarterly cadence of the market is, as I kind of was just describing with Rob. I really see that the market is ramping up. We're certainly full through the third-quarter, mostly full for the year, probably like 90% full for the year, even as we're ramping up production at a rate that's as quick as is reasonable to do. So that's kind of limiting the market size a little bit right now.

謝謝，David。第一題我來回答，零件那題Kevin可以說明。第一題他也可以補充任何他想補充的。市場的季度節奏，如同我剛才跟Rob描述的那樣。我確實看到市場正在爬升。我們第三季的產能已經滿了；全年大致也快滿了，可能全年約90%滿載，即便我們正以合理可行的最快速度拉升產量。所以這在目前某種程度上限制了市場規模。

So we will sell out of build slots probably in the next month or two here. And as we're out of build slots, then I think there will be carryover into 2027. And then I think because of the way the EPA implemented this approach, it will allow people to have the product they want next year, which I think they'll be in a good operating condition. And so it will help the cadence of the year next year start strong and probably be strong through the year.

因此我們大概在接下來一兩個月內就會把可排產的產能時段賣完。而當我們沒有可排產時段後，我認為需求就會延續到2027年。另外我認為，由於EPA採用這種實施方式，將使人們明年能拿到他們想要的產品，而我認為他們的營運狀況會不錯。因此這會讓明年的節奏在年初就很強，並且可能全年都維持強勁。

And just to add to what Preston said, PACCAR was the first to announce build rate increases earlier in the year. And so a lot of strong communication with the supply base on the rate of increase throughout the year. So I feel pretty good about the support we're getting at the elevated build levels. And then on the parts side, David, the parts will grow at a faster rate in the second half based on the strength of the truck market.

再補充Preston所說的，PACCAR是今年較早宣布提高產量的第一家。因此我們與供應鏈就全年提升速度進行了大量且強而有力的溝通。所以對於在較高的產量水準下，我們獲得的支援我感覺相當不錯。至於零件方面，David，零件在下半年會因卡車市場走強而以更快的速度成長。

Capacity has come out, utilization has increased, freight rates have increased, we're seeing customers buying more parts now, a good indicator is that the larger customers are buying through our fleet services program. We've seen an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter. And then also Europe is running strong. And so as we see the stronger truck market second half of this year and into next year, we're confident with the parts growth.

產能已經出清、稼動率提高、運價上升，我們看到客戶現在購買更多零件；一個很好的指標是，大型客戶透過我們的車隊服務計畫採購增加。我們看到季度對季度成長8%。此外，歐洲也運行強勁。因此，隨著今年下半年到明年卡車市場更強，我們對零件成長有信心。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

Chad Dillard，Bernstein。

A question for you on EPA '27. So non-compliance is about $6,000 to $7,000. If you did comply with 35 milligrams, plus $10,000 assuming the EPA rules hold, how does that change your product strategy? So will you stick with the 200-milligram product and just pass that extra cost on the customers. Or are you sticking with going as planned with the 35-milligram product?

我想問你關於EPA '27。所以不合規的成本大約是6,000到7,000美元。如果你要符合35毫克的標準，再加上10,000美元（假設EPA規則維持不變），這會如何改變你們的產品策略？所以你們會維持200毫克的產品，然後把額外成本轉嫁給客戶嗎？還是會照原計畫推進35毫克的產品？

Great question. We are planning on selling the current product to our customers. That's the engagement we've had with many, many customers is that that's their preferred approach is to ease into this thing. So both for our excellent PACCAR engines and our partners' engines, Cummins. And the plan is to begin 2026 selling those engines and then getting our customers' experience with the 35-milligram engines as the year progresses.

問得很好。我們計畫向客戶銷售目前的產品。我們與非常多客戶的互動顯示，這是他們偏好的做法，也就是循序漸進地導入。因此，無論是我們優秀的PACCAR引擎，或是合作夥伴Cummins的引擎都是如此。計畫是在2026年初開始銷售這些引擎，並在年度推進過程中，讓客戶逐步累積對35毫克引擎的使用體驗。

But as you noted, if the numbers stay where they are and at 6,000 to 7,000, there's still an advantage for them in taking the current product. So that's kind of how we think the year shapes up, which is, I think, favorable for the industry. I think it's a great approach for the industry.

但如你所指出的，如果數字維持在目前水準、也就是6,000到7,000美元，那麼對他們而言選擇目前的產品仍然有利。所以我們對這一年走勢的看法大致如此；我認為這對產業是有利的。我認為這對產業而言是很好的做法。

Okay. Great. And second question is just coming back to tariffs and just to be clear, the IEEPA refund, was there anything in 2Q or through the rest of the year? And then secondly, assuming the rules stay where they are today, how do we think about the year-on-year comps as we're trying to think through the bridge to 2027 for tariffs?

好的。很好。第二個問題回到關稅，想確認一下：IEEPA退款在第二季或今年剩餘期間是否有任何影響？另外，假設規則維持今天的樣子，我們在思考通往2027年的關稅橋接時，該如何看待年對年的比較基期？

Yes. I think that the tariff situation has become a little bit more clear, Chad, in that the 232 is durable. There doesn't seem to be any real challenge to that. I think it is favorable for PACCAR in that our teams, as we shared previously, but I was -- I've been in all our factories just in the last month, and I just can't tell you how cool it is to see those great people building every model of truck in the factories in Ohio and in Texas in a way that's supportive to the approach of the administration of building local-for-local.

是的。我認為關稅情況已經更清楚一些了，Chad，因為232條款是具持久性的。看起來沒有任何真正的挑戰。我認為這對PACCAR是有利的；正如我們先前分享的——我在過去一個月剛走訪了我們所有工廠，我只能說，看到那些優秀的人在俄亥俄州與德州的工廠裡生產每一款卡車車型，而且以支持政府「在地供在地用（local-for-local）」的方式來做，真的非常令人讚嘆。

So a great job on that. That gives us a stable tariff operating environment, I think. So looking at that. And yes, there's a little bit of IEEPA benefit in two, but that will carry forward in three and the bigger effect of tariffs really ends up being the 232 as you look forward into next year.

這方面做得非常好。我認為這讓我們擁有一個穩定的關稅營運環境。所以從這個角度來看。而且是的，第二季有一點IEEPA的利益，但第三季也會延續；而展望明年時，關稅更大的影響其實會是232條款。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

Kyle Menges，Citigroup。

Great. I was hoping just if we could hone in on margins a little bit, maybe as we get into 2027, I mean you sound a little bit more confident in volumes and then easing into the new truck platform, I guess, in 2027, new engine platform. And I'm just curious how you're thinking about margin ramifications maybe as you start with selling 2026 engines in the first half of next year but then start to produce on the new engines and just how to think about margin impact as you do that.

很好。我想稍微聚焦一下毛利率，特別是展望到2027年；聽起來你們對銷量更有信心，並且在2027年逐步導入新的卡車平台，我想也包括2027年的新引擎平台。我只是好奇，你們如何看待毛利率的影響：例如明年上半年開始銷售2026年款引擎，但之後又開始生產新引擎時，該如何思考在這個過程中的毛利率衝擊？

Yes, I think that the NCPs that will be out there are fees that will be paid not to the manufacturer that will be paid to the government. So that's a straight pass-through for us. And that's how we would look at that. So it really shouldn't have any effect on margin. We're not going to try to make a profit on those penalties. That's just a pass-through.

是的，我認為將會出現的NCPs屬於費用，這些費用不是付給製造商，而是付給政府。所以對我們而言就是直接轉嫁。我們會用這樣的方式來看待。因此它其實不應該對毛利率有任何影響。我們不會試圖在這些罰款上獲利。那只是轉嫁而已。

But we think the strength of the market will be good for PACCAR in the 2027 should do great. And we think that, again, the allowance to sell the current model year products throughout next year, which is a distinct possibility, is what we'll do with an introduction of 2027, feels really good. It feels like it's the right approach and should be positive, Kyle.

但我們認為市場的強勁對PACCAR在2027年會很有利，表現應該會非常好。而且我們認為，再次強調，允許在明年全年持續銷售現行年式產品（這是很有可能的），同時導入2027年款，這正是我們會採取的作法，感覺非常好。這看起來是正確的做法，並且應該會帶來正面效果，Kyle。

Got it. And then also on parts, I mean it sounds like maybe some of the larger fleet customers contributing more to the parts demand this year. So just curious, as you see the over-the-road market come back and maybe a recovery become more broad based and seeing more demand pick up from small and midsized fleets, just how to think about parts margins maybe as that mix within the customer base shifts a little bit.

了解。另外在零件方面，聽起來今年可能是一些較大型的車隊客戶對零件需求的貢獻更大。所以我想問，當你們看到長途運輸市場回溫、復甦變得更廣泛，並且小型與中型車隊的需求也開始回升時，隨著客戶結構的組合稍微改變，該如何看待零件毛利率？

I mean, I would imagine maybe small, midsized fleets, they'd be buying more TRP parts, which I think come at a lower margin. So just how to think about that?

我的意思是，我想像小型、中型車隊可能會買更多TRP零件，而我認為那類產品的毛利率較低。所以該如何思考這件事？

Yes, Kyle. So the reference to the fleet services was a good indicator for the large fleets, but we're also seeing the increase in the small to midsize as well. And it's just a reflection of the utilization picking up across the industry. So that's good. We're also seeing an increase in our TRP part sales as well. So I think those are all strong indicators of improved part sales.

是的，Kyle。所以提到車隊服務（fleet services）確實是大型車隊的一個良好指標，但我們也同樣看到小型到中型車隊的需求在增加。這只是反映整個產業的車輛利用率正在提升。所以這是好事。我們也看到TRP零件銷售在增加。因此我認為這些都是零件銷售改善的強勁指標。

And then just on the margin side, we still have the newest truck platforms in the industry with strong proprietary content, the engine business as well. And so I think we had talked earlier call is about to focus on service-only required maintenance. And as the truck side improves, I think we'll just see all indications improve on the parts side as well.

至於毛利率方面，我們仍然擁有業界最新的卡車平台，且自有（專有）內容占比很高，另外也有引擎業務。我想我們在先前的電話會議也談過，重點會放在僅服務端所需的保養維護。隨著卡車端的表現改善，我認為我們也會看到零件端的各項指標同步改善。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

Jamie Cook，Truist Securities。

Congrats on a nice quarter. I guess my first question, the delivery surprised to the upside relative to your guide, but US and Canada was down, which I guess I was surprised by. I think you implied every region should be up. So what's driving that? And within the 42,000 deliveries in the third-quarter, what are you expecting for US and Canada?

恭喜本季表現不錯。我第一個問題是，交車量相對於你們的指引有上修驚喜，但美國與加拿大卻是下滑，這點我有點意外。我記得你們暗示各區域都應該會成長。所以是什麼在驅動這個差異？另外，在第三季42,000台交車中，你們對美國與加拿大的預期是多少？

And I guess pressing it sort of dovetails into the margins because the margins were very impressive with US and Canada down. I always thought that was one of your more profitable regions. So correct me if I'm wrong. And then I guess my second question, on the third-quarter margins, you mentioned mix, like a little more fleet, a little less vocational.

我再追問一下，這其實也和毛利率有關，因為在美國與加拿大下滑的情況下，毛利率仍然非常亮眼。我一直以為那是你們較高獲利的區域之一。如果我理解錯了請糾正我。然後我第二個問題是，關於第三季毛利率，你們提到產品組合，例如車隊占比稍高、工程/專用車（vocational）占比稍低。

Could you just help us understand what you're seeing across TL, LTL and vocational in terms of like the order book? And is fleet being higher just a function of demand improving there? Or is there something more negative happening on the vocational side? I know there's a lot in there.

你能否協助我們理解，你們在TL、LTL以及工程/專用車（vocational）這幾個領域的訂單狀況大概看到什麼？車隊占比提高只是因為那邊需求改善嗎？還是工程/專用車端出現了更負面的情況？我知道我問了很多。

Wow, Jamie, that was a lot. Let me try work from the back of it to the front. You're right, there is some mix shift, and it's not about really anything other than the fleets and the truckload carriers increasing their demand in the months we're in now and looking forward. So that's probably the biggest thing that's affecting the margin there.

哇，Jamie，這問題很多。我試著從後面往前回答。你說得對，確實有一些組合移動，但主要不是因為其他因素，而是車隊與整車運輸（truckload）承運商在我們目前所處的月份以及往後展望中，提高了需求。所以這大概是影響毛利率的最大因素。

And then from a build mix standpoint, you take it more generically, I would say that we did have a few hundred trucks that we didn't even deliver in the US. It's probably a difference in the US that we saw just from some supplier constraints that we're starting to experience as the market ramps up. And so we think those will come through in the quarter, and we do expect healthy demand improvement or not even demand, but delivery improvement in the US markets.

然後從生產組合的角度、更概括地說，我會說我們確實有幾百台卡車甚至沒有在美國交付。這可能就是我們在美國看到的差異，主要來自一些供應商限制；隨著市場升溫，我們開始遇到這些限制。因此我們認為這些會在本季內補上，而且我們確實預期美國市場的交付會有健康的改善——甚至不一定是需求，而是交付的改善。

And then we had good European performance. The team did a great job there in the quarter. And so I think you put the strong US performance, the increasing truck market in the US, the strong European performance. They were all factors in it. They all came together well, and we think that will continue. Yes, you bet. If I miss something there, feel free to jump in on that because there was a lot.

另外我們在歐洲的表現也很好。團隊在本季做得非常出色。所以我認為，把美國的強勁表現、美國卡車市場的回升，以及歐洲的強勁表現放在一起看，這些都是促成因素。它們配合得很好，我們認為這種態勢會持續。是的，沒錯。如果我漏掉了什麼，請隨時補充，因為問題確實很多。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

Steven Fisher，UBS。

Just on the US Canada retail outlook, it sounds like you're centering around 250,000 there. Just curious with half the year to go, just why not narrow the range at all? Are there still scenarios where you think you could reasonably say either the 230,000 or the 270,000 end?

關於美國/加拿大零售市場展望，聽起來你們的中心值大約是250,000台。只是好奇，現在一年已經過了一半，為什麼不把區間再縮窄一些？你們是否仍認為在某些情境下，合理地可能落在230,000或270,000的任一端？

I think that we left it that way, but it's really calling the midpoint of 250,000. I think the question still centers out around inventory and what happens with inventory in that because I think we have a great understanding of what build is going to be and now it's just what happens with inventory.

我想我們之所以維持那樣的區間，其實就是在呼應250,000這個中位數。我認為問題仍然圍繞在庫存，以及在這之中庫存會如何變化；因為我想我們對生產量會是多少已經有很好的掌握，現在只是看庫存會怎麼走。

Okay. Makes sense. And then I'm not sure if I missed it on the parts side relative to that new 3% to 5% range for the year. Q3, are we thinking that it will sort of be at the low end of that 3% to 5% or somewhere in between? Anything specific if I missed it on Q3 guide for parts?

好的。有道理。另外我不確定我是否漏聽了零件業務的部分：你們把全年區間更新為3%到5%。那第三季我們應該預期會落在3%到5%的低端，還是介於中間？如果我漏掉了，能否說明一下第三季零件的指引有沒有什麼特別之處？

We didn't provide Q3 guide, but what I'll add is that we did see sequential growth in the Q2 as we went through the quarter. And so that's why I just called it the 3% to 5% for the second half. I think we'll see growth continue throughout the back half of the year.

我們沒有提供第三季的指引，但我可以補充的是，我們在第二季隨著季度進行確實看到環比成長。因此我才會把下半年定在3%到5%。我認為我們會在今年後半段持續看到成長。

But I don't think we think it's at the low side of that range. I think we think it's more towards the high side of that range.

但我不認為我們覺得會落在那個區間的低端。我認為我們覺得更接近那個區間的高端。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

Angel Castillo，摩根士丹利。

Preston, I just wanted to go back to the discussion around the EPA '27. I think the 2027 dynamic for unit sales makes sense. But specifically to the ability to use credits to sell or to offset some of the NCPs, just curious, why wouldn't that, I guess, create the ability for some competitors to ultimately sell the current engine at no incremental penalty.

Preston，我想回到關於 EPA「27 年」的討論。我認為 2027 年在整車銷量上的動態是合理的。但具體到使用積分來出售或用來抵銷部分 NCP 的能力，我只是好奇，為什麼那不會（我想）讓某些競爭對手最終能在沒有額外懲罰的情況下銷售現有引擎。

And then maybe to the extent that there is any implications of that, I guess, what are the impacts on potential for passing through price next year on the new engine or just competitive dynamics on price?

然後，如果這確實有任何影響的話，我想問，對於明年新引擎的價格轉嫁能力，或是價格面的競爭動態，會有什麼影響？

Yes, Angel, I don't tend to want to talk about what other competitors are going to do from their strategies. I can just kind of see what the public qualifications are out there, and I know where people's engines are qualified. And so what we see is if the engines are qualified at today's level, then the penalties are going in that $6,000 to $7,000 range for kind of everybody. And of course, people --

是的，Angel，我通常不太想談其他競爭對手的策略會怎麼做。我只能大致看一下公開的合規/認證資訊，也知道各家引擎目前認證到什麼程度。因此我們看到的是，如果引擎是以今天的水準取得認證，那麼對幾乎所有人而言，罰金大概會落在 6,000 到 7,000 美元的區間。當然，人們--

Please hold, we are experiencing technical difficulties. Please stand by while we address the issue.

請稍候，我們正遇到技術問題。請稍等，我們正在處理此問題。

Jade, can you hear?

Jade，你聽得到嗎？

Yes. Thank you all for standing by. We will now resume the broadcast.

聽得到。感謝各位稍候。我們現在將恢復直播。

So Angel, if you're still there, I hope you could hear the answer. If not, let me know, and we'll come back through it.

所以 Angel，如果你還在線上，希望你有聽到剛才的回答。如果沒有，請告訴我，我們再把它重講一遍。

Jade, why don't we go to the next question, and Angel can get back in queue if he wants to do that again.

Jade，我們先進行下一個問題吧；如果 Angel 想再問一次，可以重新排隊。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we got you.

是的，我們聽得到。

Perfect. All right. Yes, I guess just maybe switching gears a little bit. I wanted to ask a separate one. A little bit bigger picture and more technology. I guess I noticed one of your partners, Aurora had launched a second-generation hardware and driverless freight routes with the different OEM partners. Just give us an update on how some of your partnerships with Aurora here are progressing, how you see that evolving over time? Just any kind of plans here to start kind of approving driverless operations or just what your strategic kind of approach here is going to be on some of those autonomous innovation.

太好了。好。是的，我想稍微換個方向。我想問另一個問題。比較偏宏觀、也更偏技術面。我注意到你們的一個合作夥伴 Aurora 推出了第二代硬體，並與不同的 OEM 夥伴一起推出無人駕駛貨運路線。請更新一下你們與 Aurora 的合作進展如何、你們如何看待它隨時間演進？以及是否有任何計畫開始批准無人駕駛營運，或你們在這些自動駕駛創新上的策略性做法會是什麼？

Yes. PACCAR is developing its autonomous vehicle platform. We're really happy with the progress we're making in that. We have good partners in Aurora, and Stack, and Kodiak and the others that we work with. So we feel good about the progress we are making on that. It's significant. We have no plans to take the driver out at this point in time.

是的。PACCAR 正在開發其自動駕駛車輛平台。我們對目前取得的進展非常滿意。我們有很好的合作夥伴，包括 Aurora、Stack、Kodiak，以及其他與我們合作的夥伴。因此我們對這方面的進展感到樂觀。這是很重大的。目前我們沒有計畫把駕駛員移除。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

So all we keep hearing from truckers is supply-driven cycle, rates are going up a lot, but demand sort of stable, drivers, fewer drivers. Does that change the way you think about what an up cycle could look like in terms of where orders and builds can go? Are you hearing about fleet growth? Or do you think that's less likely now in the sort of supply-driven tightening?

我們從卡車司機那邊一直聽到的是：這是一個供給驅動的循環，運價大幅上升，但需求大致穩定；司機更少、可用司機不足。這會改變你們對上行循環可能長什麼樣子的看法嗎？例如訂單與產量能到什麼程度？你們有聽到車隊規模擴張嗎？還是你們認為在這種供給驅動的緊縮下，車隊成長的可能性變小了？

Yes, great question. I think that if you just look at it in general, while freight tonnage index is increasing only modestly, it's at a high level. So it's not as if there's not a lot of freight being hauled out there. And I think with the GDP growth that the US is experiencing, that's positive because as we all know, over 70% of the freight is moved by trucks.

是的，這是個好問題。我認為如果從整體來看，雖然貨運噸位指數只是小幅上升，但它處在高位。所以並不是說外面沒有大量貨物在運輸。而且我認為美國目前的 GDP 成長是正面的，因為我們都知道，超過 70% 的貨運是由卡車運輸。

So as the economy grows, the truck grows. And I think that the reshoring and local-for-local efforts that are happening in the industrial base right now are good for trucks and especially good for PACCAR. So I think all of those things give us confidence in where the market should head towards in the coming year or two here.

所以經濟成長，卡車市場就成長。我也認為目前工業基礎正在發生的回流生產（reshoring）以及「在地供應在地」（local-for-local）的努力，對卡車是利多，對 PACCAR 尤其是利多。因此我認為所有這些因素，都讓我們對未來一到兩年市場的走向更有信心。

Okay. And then just lastly, I've got one very short term and then one longer term. Mechanically, if someone placed a -- that in their mind was a prebuy for delivery in '26, like are they able to now push that to '27? Are you seeing that? And then maybe just longer term, like thought like as we enter an up cycle, like where do you think ultimately gross margins can get to relative to where they've been in prior cycles?

好的。最後我有一個非常短期的問題，以及一個較長期的問題。在操作層面，如果有人下了一筆——他們心中認為是為了 26 年交車的預購（prebuy）——現在是否能把它延後到 27 年？你們有看到這種情況嗎？然後較長期來看，當我們進入上行循環時，你認為最終毛利率相較於過去循環的水準，可能會到什麼程度？

Yes. I think what we think is that the -- there was many people thought that there would be a huge prebuy at the end of the year. And I think that what we kind of expect now is with the smart positioning that the EPA did, it will be just a continued improved cycle through the balance of the year with a stronger 2027 and not much drop off. And that feels pretty positive to me.

是的。我認為我們的看法是——很多人原本以為年底會出現非常大的預購潮。而我們現在的預期是，隨著 EPA 做了更聰明的安排，接下來今年剩餘時間會是持續改善的循環，2027 年會更強，而且不會出現太大的下滑。這讓我覺得相當正面。

And as far as the margins longer term, I think we've done a good job of investing in the right products so that our team has produced the best trucks that can be built. And I think we're building them in the right locations. So that's also positive for margin. And we feel good about the company's short, mid- and long-term performance.

至於較長期的毛利率，我認為我們在投資正確產品方面做得很好，讓我們的團隊打造出能夠生產的最佳卡車。而且我認為我們也在正確的地點生產。因此這對毛利率也有正面幫助。我們對公司短期、中期與長期的表現都很有信心。

At this time, there are no further questions in the queue. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司方面是否有任何補充說明？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator, Jade.

我們要感謝各位參與本次電話會議，也謝謝接線員 Jade。

Thank you as well. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

也謝謝各位。各位女士、先生，PACCAR 的法說會到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。