沛齊 (PAYX) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Paychex First Quarter Fiscal Year End 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Martin Mucci, President and Chief Executive Officer of Paychex. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Paychex 2020 財年第一季及年度財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在，我將把電話轉交給 Paychex 的總裁兼執行長 Martin Mucci。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, and thank you for joining us for the discussion of the Paychex first quarter of fiscal 2020 earnings release.

謝謝，早安，感謝各位參加我們對 Paychex 2020 財年第一季財報發布的討論。

Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, of our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the first quarter ended August 31, 2019. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations webpage, and our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next few days.

今天和我一起的是我們的財務長埃弗雷恩·裡維拉。今天早上，在市場開盤之前，我們發布了截至 2019 年 8 月 31 日的第一季財務表現。您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網頁查看我們的獲利報告，我們的 10-Q 表格將在未來幾天內提交給美國證券交易委員會。

This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet, will be archived and available for -- on our website for approximately 1 month. On today's call, I will review business highlights for the first quarter. Efrain will review first quarter financial results and discuss our guidance for fiscal 2020, and then we'll open it up for your questions.

本次電話會議將透過網路進行直播，並將在我們的網站上存檔，供公眾觀看約 1 個月。在今天的電話會議上，我將回顧第一季的業務亮點。Efrain 將回顧第一季的財務業績，並討論我們對 2020 財年的展望，之後我們將開放提問環節。

We are pleased with the solid start of fiscal year 2020. Our financial results reflect good progress in operations and sales. Total revenue growth was 15% for the first quarter, including the incremental results from Oasis Outsourcing Group, which we acquired back in December of '18. Management solutions revenue grew 5% while PEO and insurance services revenues grew 56%.

我們對2020財年的良好開局感到滿意。我們的財務表現反映了營運和銷售方面的良好進展。第一季總營收成長了 15%，其中包括我們於 2018 年 12 月收購的 Oasis Outsourcing Group 的增量業績。管理解決方案收入成長了 5%，而 PEO 和保險服務收入成長了 56%。

And not only are we off to a solid financial start, but our client retention and satisfaction continue to be at record high levels and sales continues to perform well as we start this fiscal year. We are excited to introduce several new technology announcements and solutions at HR Tech, which is happening this week in Las Vegas. And as a long-standing leader in this human capital management space, we have insight into the needs of our clients and their employees and see trends in our markets. These new solutions address key developments in payments, wearable devices, integrations and data and analytics. Our new wearable solutions allow Paychex Flex time users to track time worked on their smartwatch. Employees can clock in and out with a simple tap of the watch. It also makes the time and attendance tracking easier for the increasingly remote workforces with enhanced geofencing capabilities, which remind employees to punch out as they leave their work locations. This the first of many potential use cases utilizing wearable solutions that we will be making available to Flex users.

不僅財務開局穩健，客戶留存率和滿意度也持續保持在歷史高位，銷售業績在本財年開始之際也持續保持良好勢頭。我們很高興能在本週於拉斯維加斯舉行的 HR Tech 大會上推出幾項新技術和解決方案。作為人力資本管理領域的長期領導者，我們深入了解客戶及其員工的需求，並能看到市場趨勢。這些新解決方案針對支付、穿戴式裝置、整合以及數據和分析方面的關鍵發展進行了改進。我們全新的穿戴式解決方案讓 Paychex Flex 時間用戶可以透過智慧手錶追蹤工作時間。員工只需輕點手錶即可打卡上下班。它還透過增強地理圍欄功能，使日益遠距辦公的員工更容易進行考勤跟踪，該功能會在員工離開工作地點時提醒他們打卡下班。這是我們將向 Flex 用戶提供的眾多可穿戴解決方案潛在應用案例中的第一個。

We're also excited to be introducing pay-on-demand and real-time payments by the end of calendar year 2019. Paychex clients can allow employees to access a portion of their earned pay before the scheduled check date. With many Americans living paycheck to paycheck, this advancement in technology allows financial flexibility when needed. Following this enhancement, then in early 2020, we'll be offering the option to help earned deposited in an employees bank account and real time. Real-time payment is an extension of our market isolating innovative technology. We will be one of the first providers to offer real-time payments or employee direct deposits, continuing our position as a tech leader in this space.

我們也很高興能在 2019 年底前推出按需支付和即時支付服務。Paychex客戶可以允許員工在預定的工資發放日期之前提取部分已賺取的工資。許多美國人都是月光族，這項技術進步讓他們在需要時擁有財務靈活性。此次改進之後，我們將在 2020 年初提供將員工賺取的薪資即時存入其銀行帳戶的選項。即時支付是我們市場隔離創新技術的延伸。我們將成為首批提供即時支付或員工直接存款服務的供應商之一，繼續保持我們在該領域的技術領先地位。

While Paychex offers the full breadth of services across the HCM spectrum integrated into our Flex platform, we understand that clients may prefer to keep some solutions they use in place. Our Paychex product integrations is a private marketplace that takes the company's integration partner strategy a step further, continuing to simplify the process for customers looking to connect Paychex Flex with some of the most popular HR, accounting, point-of-sale and productivity applications on the market today. Clients can determine how and when an integration deploys with the ability for it to happen real time, regularly schedule or based on an action within their Flex platform. Our robust and continually evolving set of APIs allows clients the flexibility to choose how they receive their services through one integrated provider or by using various HR solutions.

雖然 Paychex 提供涵蓋整個 HCM 領域的全方位服務，並已整合到我們的 Flex 平台中，但我們也理解客戶可能更願意保留他們正在使用的一些解決方案。我們的 Paychex 產品整合是一個私人市場，它將公司的整合合作夥伴策略進一步推進，繼續簡化希望將 Paychex Flex 與當今市場上一些最受歡迎的人力資源、會計、銷售點和生產力應用程式連接的客戶的流程。客戶可以決定整合部署的方式和時間，使其能夠即時部署、定期部署或根據其 Flex 平台中的操作進行部署。我們強大且不斷發展的 API 套件使客戶能夠靈活地選擇如何透過一個整合提供者或使用各種人力資源解決方案來接收服務。

Data and analytics are areas of increasing focus. Paychex has a rich and reliable repository of data gathered from interactions with clients. We are pleased to introduce the Paychex Flex intelligence engine, one aspect of this feature is the Paychex Flex Assistant, which we've discussed before. This is our customer service chatbot introduced last year, which continues to evolve and be enhanced. Our users in-app interactions with Flex Assistant allows them to elect a preference for their learning via written how to documents, tutorial-style video, vignette short videos or a guided interactive tour. Coming in December, the chatbot will offer these options during every customer interaction, providing the ultimate in learning flexibility. At anytime, a live Paychex agent is just a click away to provide personalized service experience based on the context collected through the bot. 7/24/365, Paychex is the only company to offer the personalized service option in our space 7/24/365 days a year.

數據和分析是日益受到關注的領域。Paychex擁有豐富可靠的資料儲存庫，這些資料均來自與客戶的互動。我們很高興向大家介紹 Paychex Flex 智慧引擎，該功能的一個面向是 Paychex Flex 助手，我們之前已經討論過。這是我們去年推出的客戶服務聊天機器人，它將不斷發展和改進。我們的使用者可以透過應用程式內與 Flex Assistant 的互動，選擇他們偏好的學習方式，例如書面操作文件、教程式影片、短影片或引導式互動導覽。12 月上線後，聊天機器人將在每次客戶互動中提供這些選項，從而提供極致的學習彈性。無論何時，只需點擊一下滑鼠，即可聯絡 Paychex 客服人員，根據機器人收集的資訊提供個人化的服務體驗。Paychex 是業界唯一一家全年 7/24/365 提供個人化服務選項的公司。

Through machine learning, our chatbot continually expands its knowledge base and provides a more robust data set to leverage and formulate answers to frequently asked questions. During the past quarter, we approached 0.25 million sessions interacting with the Flex Assistant. The bot is able to address approximately 200 commonly asked questions and that number is growing. In addition to these exciting introduction during HR Tech, during the quarter, we also provided set of enhancements to our solutions designed to help common -- solve common HR and payroll challenges, including Paychex solo, bundled offering designed to meet the specific needs of sole proprietors, which includes a payroll incorporation services and a solo retirement plan. A new customizable new grid entry view for payroll, electronic app form (inaudible) I-9 and E-Verify processes that is integrated with our paperless onboarding. HR conversations. This is a tool in our performance management module that enables collaboration between employees, managers and HR staff. And document management, a centralized and secured digital file repository for company forums, policies, references and employee documents and certifications.

透過機器學習，我們的聊天機器人不斷擴展其知識庫，並提供更強大的資料集，以便利用這些資料集來回答常見問題。上個季度，我們與 Flex Assistant 的互動會話次數接近 25 萬次。該機器人能夠回答大約 200 個常見問題，而且這個數字還在不斷增長。除了在 HR Tech 期間推出的這些令人興奮的新產品外，本季我們還提供了一系列解決方案的增強功能，旨在幫助解決常見的人力資源和薪資挑戰，包括 Paychex solo，這是一個旨在滿足個體經營者特定需求的捆綁式產品，其中包括薪資公司服務和個人退休計劃。為薪資單、電子申請表（聽不清楚）、I-9 和 E-Verify 流程提供了一個全新的可自訂網格輸入視圖，並與我們的無紙化入職流程整合。人力資源對話。這是我們績效管理模組中的一個工具，它能夠促進員工、經理和人力資源人員之間的協作。以及文件管理，一個集中且安全的數位文件儲存庫，用於存放公司論壇、政策、參考資料、員工文件和證書。

We are singularly focused on continued innovation to meet not only our customers, but also their employees' evolving needs, simplify HR complexities and offer solutions to help them thrive and grow. Also we're offering cyber -- cyber attacks are a growing threat to businesses of all sizes. We are now making cybersecurity liability protection available to our clients through our Paychex Insurance Agency and Access Insurance Company, a leading cybersecurity insurance carrier. This solution helps businesses -- business owners by mitigate and the potential impact of financial impact of data breaches, hackers and ransomware and online banking fraud. It is uniquely critical for business with fewer a 1,000 employees since 60% fail within 6 months of a cyber attack due to a lack of resources to offset the breach.

我們始終專注於持續創新，不僅是為了滿足客戶的需求，也是為了滿足他們員工不斷變化的需求，簡化人力資源的複雜性，並提供解決方案來幫助他們蓬勃發展。此外，我們也提供網路安全服務——網路攻擊對各種規模的企業都構成了日益嚴重的威脅。我們現在透過我們的 Paychex 保險代理公司和領先的網路安全保險公司 Access 保險公司，向我們的客戶提供網路安全責任保障。該解決方案透過減輕資料外洩、駭客攻擊、勒索軟體和網路銀行詐欺可能造成的財務影響，幫助企業—企業主。對於員工人數少於 1000 人的企業來說，這一點尤其重要，因為 60% 的企業會在遭受網路攻擊後的 6 個月內倒閉，原因是缺乏資源來彌補損失。

Shifting to our PEO business, the acquisition of Oasis were the largest acquisition in our history and doubled the number of worksite employees we serve in our PEO. We are making steady progress on our integration plans, and we are now focused on completing the integration of our sales and service teams. Through all of these efforts, we remain focused on what is most important, serving our clients and their employees and growing our PEO. We launched new branding for our HR Outsourcing solutions, including our Paychex PEO and ASO solutions. This new product brand Paychex One conveys the power of a comprehensive, flexible total HR Solutions that can scale and meet the needs of any business at every stage of their development.

轉向我們的 PEO 業務，收購 Oasis 是我們歷史上最大的收購，使我們 PEO 服務的現場員工數量翻了一番。我們的整合計劃正在穩步推進，目前我們正專注於完成銷售和服務團隊的整合。在所有這些努力中，我們始終專注於最重要的事情，那就是服務我們的客戶及其員工，並發展我們的 PEO 業務。我們為人力資源外包解決方案推出了新的品牌形象，包括我們的 Paychex PEO 和 ASO 解決方案。這個全新的產品品牌 Paychex One 展現了全面、靈活的人力資源解決方案的強大功能，能夠擴展並滿足任何企業在發展各個階段的需求。

We're also very proud that for the ninth consecutive year now, Paychex is earned the distinction of being the retirement industries leader, #1 in the total number of defined contribution plans. This ranking was announced as part of the annual 401(k) record-keeping survey published by (inaudible) Magazine. We provide solutions to remove the complexity of saving for retirement and this is an integral part of the package for our clients to use as part of the recruitment for new talent as well as retaining talent.

我們也非常自豪地宣布，Paychex 已連續第九年榮獲退休行業領導者的稱號，在固定繳款計劃總數方面排名第一。該排名是《（聽不清楚）雜誌》發布的年度 401(k) 記錄保存調查的一部分。我們提供解決方案，以消除退休儲蓄的複雜性，這是我們為客戶提供的服務包中不可或缺的一部分，可用於招募新人才和留住人才。

Recent enhancements to our mobile app, naked enrollment in the retirement plan possible with only 4 clicks. This is already led to an increase in participant enrollment, which will lead as well to improved client retention. We also ranked #3 on Sellers Selling Power 50 Best Companies to Sell For list in 2019. This is the seventh conductive year we've appeared on the list, and our ranking reflects our commitment to providing our sales team every opportunity to succeed.

我們行動應用程式最近進行了改進，只需點擊 4 次即可輕鬆註冊退休計畫。這已經導致參與者註冊人數增加，這也將有助於提高客戶留存率。2019 年，我們也在 Sellers Selling Power 評選的 50 家最佳銷售公司榜單中排名第 3。這已經是我們連續第七年出現在榜單上了，我們的排名反映了我們致力於為銷售團隊提供一切成功機會的承諾。

We continue to return exceptional value to our shareholders. And in May, we announced an increase in our quarterly dividend of $0.06 or 11% to $0.62 per share. Our dividend yield remains approximately 3%, a leader in this market. And during the first quarter, we repurchased 2 million shares of common stock.

我們持續為股東創造卓越價值。5 月份，我們宣布將季度股息提高 0.06 美元，增幅 11%，至每股 0.62 美元。我們的股息殖利率維持在3%左右，在市場中處於領先地位。第一季度，我們回購了 200 萬股普通股。

In summary, we continue to focus on the growth of our business, providing great value and convenience to our clients. Our state-of-the-art technology allows our service to our clients and their employees the way they want, when they want, where they want. We are focused on providing technology enabled service to improve business efficiency and meet our clients needs. Our full suite of HCM product offerings and world-class service is a powerful combination that positions us for sustainable growth. The continued efforts of our employees and their commitment to our clients is making a difference.

總而言之，我們將繼續專注於業務成長，為客戶提供巨大的價值和便利性。我們採用最先進的技術，能夠以客戶及其員工想要的方式，在他們想要的時間和地點為他們提供服務。我們致力於提供技術賦能的服務，以提高業務效率並滿足客戶需求。我們全面的 HCM 產品組合和世界級的服務，是實現永續成長的強大保障。員工們的持續努力和對客戶的承諾正在產生正面的影響。

I'll now turn the call over to Efrain Rivera and Efrain is going to be our financial results for the first quarter. Efrain?

現在我將把電話交給埃弗雷恩·裡維拉，埃弗雷恩將為我們介紹第一季的財務表現。埃弗雷恩？

Thanks, Marty, good morning. I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events, and as such, involve risks. Please refer to the customary disclosures.

謝謝馬蒂，早安。我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議將包含有關未來事件的前瞻性陳述，因此存在風險。請參閱慣例揭露事項。

In addition, I will periodically refer to non-GAAP measures such EBITDA, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted operatings-- diluted earnings per share. Please refer to our press release and investor presentation for a discussion of these measures and a reconciliation for the first quarter to their related GAAP measures.

此外，我也會定期參考非GAAP指標，例如EBITDA、調整後淨利和調整後稀釋營業利潤——攤薄每股收益。有關這些措施的討論以及第一季與其相關 GAAP 指標的調節表，請參閱我們的新聞稿和投資者簡報。

I'll start by providing some of the key highlights for the quarter and then follow-up with some greater detail in certain areas. I'll wrap with a review of of our fiscal 2020 outlook.

我將首先介紹本季的一些關鍵亮點，然後再就某些領域進行更詳細的闡述。最後，我將回顧我們2020財年的展望。

As you saw, total revenue and total service revenue both grew 15% for the first quarter. Our growth, excluding Oasis, was between 5% and 6%. Expenses increased 18% for the first quarter to $643 million. Increase in compensation-related cost PEO direct insurance cost and amortization of intangible assets contributed to total expense growth for the first quarter primarily driven by the acquisition of Oasis.

正如你所看到的，第一季總收入和總服務收入均成長了 15%。不包括 Oasis 在內的我們的成長率在 5% 到 6% 之間。第一季支出成長18%，達到6.43億美元。第一季總支出成長的主要原因是收購 Oasis，而薪資相關成本、PEO 直接保險成本和無形資產攤提的增加也推高了總支出。

Operating income increased 9% to $349 million. Operating margin was 35.2% for the first quarter. EBITDA increased 13%, and EBITDA margin was approximately 41% for the first quarter. Margins were moderated by business mix due to growth in the PEO business and accelerated investments in sales, technology and operations. Other expense, net for the first quarter of $5 million, includes interest expense of $8 million related to our long-term borrowings. As a reminder, we used $800 million of private placement bonds to fund a portion of the Oasis purchase price.

營業收入成長9%，達到3.49億美元。第一季營業利益率為35.2%。第一季 EBITDA 成長 13%，EBITDA 利潤率約 41%。由於 PEO 業務的成長以及對銷售、技術和營運的投資加速，業務組合對利潤率起到了一定的抑製作用。第一季其他支出淨額為 500 萬美元，其中包括與長期借款相關的 800 萬美元利息支出。再次提醒大家，我們曾使用 8 億美元的私募債券為 Oasis 的部分收購價款提供資金。

The effective income tax rate was 23.3% for the first quarter compared to 24.5% for the same period last year. Net income increased 8% to $264 million, and adjusted net income increased 6% to $258 million for the first quarter. Diluted EPS increased 9% to $0.73 for the first quarter, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 6% to $0.71. We received approximately $0.02 of benefit from stock benefit -- stock-based compensation payments during the first quarter, which we exclude in our adjusted diluted EPS.

第一季實際所得稅率為23.3%，而去年同期為24.5%。第一季淨利潤成長 8% 至 2.64 億美元，調整後淨利成長 6% 至 2.58 億美元。第一季稀釋後每股收益成長 9% 至 0.73 美元，調整後稀釋後每股收益成長 6% 至 0.71 美元。第一季度，我們收到了約 0.02 美元的股票收益——股票選擇權補償金，這筆款項已從我們調整後的稀釋每股收益中剔除。

I'll now provide some additional color in selected areas. Management solutions revenue increased 5% to $724 million for the first quarter. The increase was primarily driven by increases in our client bases across many of our services and growth in revenue per client, which improved as a result of price increases, net of discounts. Retirement services revenue also benefited from an increase in asset fee revenue earned on the asset value participant from funds. We had a strong quarter in management solutions if you recall the data I gave you for Q1. PEO and insurance services revenue increased 56% to $247 million for the first quarter. In addition to the acquisition of Oasis, the increase was driven by growth in clients and client worksite employees across our combined existing PEO business. Insurance service revenue was moderated by softness in the -- in workers' comp premiums. This was partially offset by an increase in the number of health and benefit clients and applicants. Interest on funds held for clients increased 20% for the first quarter to $21 million primarily as a result of higher average interest rates earned. Average balances for interest on funds held for clients increased 1% for the first quarter compared to the same period last year.

接下來，我將在選定區域中添加一些額外的顏色。第一季管理解決方案營收成長5%，達到7.24億美元。此次成長主要得益於我們眾多服務的客戶群擴大以及每位客戶收入的成長，而價格上漲（扣除折扣後）則改善了每位客戶的收入。退休服務收入也受益於基金資產價值參與者所獲得的資產費用收入的增加。如果你還記得我之前給你的第一季數據，就會知道我們在管理解決方案方面取得了強勁的業績。第一季度，PEO 和保險服務收入成長 56%，達到 2.47 億美元。除了收購 Oasis 之外，成長的驅動力還來自於我們合併後的現有 PEO 業務中客戶和客戶現場員工的成長。保險服務收入受到工傷賠償保險費疲軟的影響。醫療福利客戶和申請人數的增加部分抵消了這一影響。由於平均利率上升，第一季為客戶持有的資金利息增加了 20%，達到 2,100 萬美元。與去年同期相比，第一季客戶資金利息平均餘額增加了 1%。

Investments and income. We continue to invest primarily but in high-credit quality securities. Our long-term portfolio has an average yield of 2.1% currently and an average duration of 3.1 years. Our combined portfolios have earned an average rate of return of 2% for the first quarter, up from 1.8% from last year.

投資和收入。我們將繼續投資，但主要投資對象為高信用等級的證券。我們長期投資組合目前的平均報酬率為 2.1%，平均久期為 3.1 年。我們綜合投資組合第一季的平均報酬率為 2%，高於去年同期的 1.8%。

Now let me walk you through the highlights of our financial position. It remains strong, with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of approximately $700 million as of August 31, 2019. Funds held for clients were $3.8 billion, consistent the balance as of the end of last fiscal year May 31. I'll remind you that funds and client vary widely on a day-to-day basis and averaged $3.7 billion for the first quarter. Total available-for-sale investments, including corporate investments and funds held for clients, reflected net unrealized gains of $53 million as of August 31 compared with $20 million as of May 31, 2019. Stockholders equity was $2.5 billion as of August 31, reflecting $222 million in dividends paid and $172 million worth of shares repurchased during the quarter. Our return on equity for the past 12 months was a robust 42%.

現在讓我帶您了解我們財務狀況的要點。截至 2019 年 8 月 31 日，該公司現金、受限現金和公司總投資額約為 7 億美元，財務狀況仍然穩健。為客戶持有的資金為 38 億美元，與上個財政年度結束時（5 月 31 日）的餘額一致。我提醒各位，基金和客戶的規模每天都有很大的波動，第一季的平均規模為 37 億美元。截至 8 月 31 日，可供出售的投資總額（包括公司投資和為客戶持有的基金）反映出未實現淨收益為 5,300 萬美元，而截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日為 2,000 萬美元。截至 8 月 31 日，股東權益為 25 億美元，其中包括支付的股息 2.22 億美元和本季回購的價值 1.72 億美元的股票。過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率達到了強勁的 42%。

Cash flows from operations were $295 million for the first quarter, an increase of 8% from the same period last year. The increase was driven by higher net income and noncash adjustments, offset by changes in operating assets and liabilities. The increase in noncash adjustments was primarily due to higher amortization expense, largely driven by intangible assets acquired through the acquisition of Oasis.

第一季經營活動產生的現金流量為 2.95 億美元，比去年同期成長 8%。淨收入增加和非現金調整推動了成長，但經營性資產和負債的變化抵消了部分成長。非現金調整增加主要是因為攤銷費用增加，而攤銷費用增加主要是因為收購 Oasis 所獲得的無形資產所致。

Now let me talk about balance -- guidance for the balance of the year. I'll remind you that our outlook is based upon current view of economic conditions and trends and business trends continuing with no significant changes, though we have reflected the impact of the 2 interest rate cuts that have already occurred this fiscal year. So we are not, at this point, including additional guidance on further rate cuts we're uncertain about what will happen in the balance of the year.

現在讓我談談平衡——今年剩餘時間的指導。我在此提醒各位，我們的展望是基於對當前經濟狀況和趨勢以及商業趨勢的看法，預計這些趨勢將繼續保持，不會發生重大變化，儘管我們已經反映了本財年已經發生的兩次降息的影響。因此，目前我們不提供關於進一步降息的額外指導，因為我們不確定今年剩餘時間會發生什麼。

I'll provide our current outlook and then add color in a couple areas. We provided updates to the guidance as you saw. On the strength of a strong quarter in Q1, we now think management solutions revenue is anticipated to grow 5%, above the range of previous guidance of approximately 4%. We thought that first quarter would be a sequentially little weaker. We actually got out of the gate a little bit stronger. PEO and insurances revenue is now anticipated to grow approximately 30%, at the lower end of the previously provided range of 30% to 35%. More to come on that, but we started a little slower than we had originally contemplated.

我將先介紹我們目前的展望，然後再就幾個方面進行補充說明。正如您所看到的，我們對指南進行了更新。由於第一季強勁的業績，我們現在認為管理解決方案營收預計將成長 5%，高於先前約 4% 的預期範圍。我們原本預期第一季業績會比上一季略弱。實際上，我們開局稍微強勢一些。目前預計 PEO 和保險收入將成長約 30%，處於先前預測的 30% 至 35% 範圍的下限。關於這一點，後續還會有更多進展，但我們的起步速度比最初預想的要慢一些。

Other expense net, which was previously referred to as net interest expense, is anticipated to be in the range of $18 million to $20 million, a modest change from previously reported guidance of $15 million to $18 million (inaudible) due to interest rate changes. And if you remember what that is, it's a combination of interest income and interest expense. So the decrease in interest rate changes affects what we will earn on the corporate portfolio. Net income and diluted earnings per share, both now anticipated growth 9%, above the range of our prior guidance of approximately 8%. And adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share are both expected to increase approximately 9%, above the range of our previous guidance of growth in the range of 8% to 9%. Other guidance remains unchanged.

其他淨支出（以前稱為淨利息支出）預計在 1800 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間，與之前公佈的 1500 萬美元至 1800 萬美元的預期相比略有變化（聽不清），這是由於利率變化所致。如果你還記得利息收入和利息支出是什麼的話，它就是利息收入和利息支出的總和。因此，利率下降會影響我們從公司投資組合中獲得的收益。淨利潤和稀釋後每股收益目前預計成長 9%，高於我們先前約 8% 的預期範圍。調整後淨收入和調整後稀釋每股收益預計均將成長約 9%，高於我們先前 8% 至 9% 的成長預期。其他指導原則保持不變。

Interest on funds held for clients anticipated to grow in the range of 4% to 8%. That's what we said at the beginning of the year and that's what we're sticking with. We assume that there was a good probability that there would be a second rate cut, it happened and that was contemplated in the guidance. Total revenue is anticipated to grow in the same range of 10% to 11%. Operating income as a percent of total revenue is anticipated to be approximately 36%, although inching ever so slightly up. EBITDA margin for the full year fiscal 2020 is expected to be approximately 41%. And the effective income tax rate for fiscal 2020 is expected to be in the range of 24% to 24.5%., although we anticipate that now will be toward the high end. As I indicated, PEO and insurance revenues are now anticipated to grow approximately 30%. We anticipate that growth for the second quarter will be in the range of 56% to 60%, and growth in the second half of the fiscal year will be within the range previously provided of 11% to 14%, but at the lower end of that range.

預計為客戶持有的資金利息將增加 4% 至 8%。這是我們年初就說過的話，我們也會堅持這個立場。我們假設第二次降息的可能性很大，而第二次降息也確實發生了，這點在指導意見中也有所體現。預計總收入將成長 10% 至 11%。預計營業收入佔總收入的百分比約為 36%，儘管略有上升。預計 2020 財年全年 EBITDA 利潤率約為 41%。預計 2020 財年的實際所得稅率將在 24% 至 24.5% 之間，儘管我們預計目前來看會更接近上限。正如我之前提到的，預計 PEO 和保險收入將成長約 30%。我們預計第二季成長率將在 56% 至 60% 之間，而下半年的成長率將在先前預測的 11% 至 14% 的範圍內，但會處於該範圍的下限。

PEO and insurance revenues growth was partially impacted by a change in classification of an immaterial Oasis revenue stream out of PEO and insurance services into management solutions after we last provided guidance. So make sure when you look at the presentation we've posted that you got the right beginning number. It's not a big difference, but make sure you're working off that numbers as you look at updating your models.

PEO 和保險收入成長部分受到 Oasis 一項不重要的收入流從 PEO 和保險服務重新歸類到管理解決方案的影響，這是我們在上次提供業績指引之後做出的決定。所以，在查看我們發布的簡報時，請務必確認起始編號正確。雖然差異不大，但在更新模型時，請務必參考這些數據。

Management solutions. In addition, we've experienced lower workers' compensation insurance rates that moderated our insurance services grew. It was a little softer than we had anticipated in Q1. We anticipate the trend eases as we go through the year, but started a little bit slowly there. And we are also anticipating modestly lower at-risk insurance attachment in our PEO business based on current trends. And that number for us, if it's not at-risk insurance, we don't recognize it as revenue. So our business can do very well without having significant at-risk insurance attachment. We are looking at the trends, thinking it will be a little bit lower than we had originally projected.

管理解決方案。此外，我們還經歷了工傷賠償保險費率的下降，這抑制了我們保險服務的成長。第一季的情況比我們預期的稍微好一點。我們預計這一趨勢會隨著時間的推移而放緩，但年初時增速稍慢。根據目前的趨勢，我們也預期 PEO 業務中的風險保險附加費將略有下降。對我們來說，如果不是風險保險，我們就不會將這個數字確認為收入。因此，即使沒有大量的風險保險，我們的業務也能發展得很好。我們正在觀察目前的趨勢，認為實際數字會比我們最初的預測略低一些。

Now in contrast, management solutions guidance was increased [to] approximately 5% growth from our previous guidance of approximately 4% growth due to favorable trends we've seen during the first quarter. In addition, management solutions has increased partially due to the change of classification of the immaterial Oasis revenue stream and had a negligible effect in first quarter and will have a negligible effect for the remainder of the year. For the second quarter, we expect growth at approximately 5% and then between 4% and 5% in the back half of the fiscal year.

相較之下，由於我們在第一季看到了有利的趨勢，管理解決方案的成長預期從先前約 4% 的成長預期上調至約 5%。此外，管理解決方案的成長部分是由於非實質 Oasis 收入流的分類變更，在第一季度的影響微乎其微，並且在今年剩餘時間內的影響也將微乎其微。我們預計第二季成長率約為 5%，然後在本財年下半年成長率在 4% 到 5% 之間。

Operating margins, which, for the full year, are anticipated to be approximately 36%, vary quarterly, as you probably captured in your models. For Q2, we expect margins to be in the range of 33% to 34%, and for the second half of the year, we expect to see them at approximately 38%. So in the second half, we're anticipating, at this point, approximately 38% margins. I got asked a lot after the guidance that we expect to see higher margins in the back half of the year, and the answer is yes. Now I refer you to our investor slides on our website for more information.

全年營業利潤率預計約為 36%，但會按季度波動，正如您可能在模型中看到的那樣。我們預計第二季利潤率將在 33% 至 34% 之間，下半年利潤率預計將達到 38% 左右。因此，我們目前預計下半年的利潤率約為 38%。在發布業績指引後，很多人問我我們預期下半年利潤率會更高，答案是肯定的。現在請您造訪我們的網站查看投資者演示文稿，以了解更多資訊。

And with all of that, I will turn it back to Marty.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交還給馬蒂了。

Thank you, Efrain. Maria, we'll now open up the call to questions, please.

謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。瑪麗亞，現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

I wanted to ask you kind of a general question about your pricing strategy. Marty, you walked through a lot of really interesting kind of product innovation that's happening. When you are able to raise prices, is it always in conjunction with a new enhancement or in addition to value? Are you still able to just raise prices on a renewal just you to the underlying kind of stickiness and competitive (inaudible) product? I'm just trying to understand whether pricing is kind of tied to innovation or is this something you kind of leverage or to the underlying kind of competitive know you have?

我想問您一個關於定價策略的比較籠統的問題。馬蒂，你介紹了很多非常有趣的產品創新。當您能夠提高價格時，是否總是伴隨著新的功能增強或增加價值？你是否仍然能夠僅僅透過提高續約價格來增強客戶黏著度和競爭性（聽不清楚）產品？我只是想了解定價是否與創新掛鉤，或者這是否與你所擁有的潛在競爭優勢有關？

Yes. I think it's still both. I think we're seeing, not only for the innovation and bundling more things together, but also the normal price increase that we've given guidance on pretty consistently. It's held up pretty well. So we are at kind of normal annual price increases, and we've seen that do pretty well. I think that's part of what you're seeing management solutions is holding is better than we originally projected is because of that. So we have the pricing power both ways, I feel, at this point.

是的。我認為兩者兼而有之。我認為我們看到的不僅是創新和將更多產品捆綁在一起，還有我們一直以來給出的正常價格上漲預期。它保存得相當完好。所以，我們目前處於正常的年度價格上漲水平，而且我們看到這種做法效果相當不錯。我認為，管理解決方案之所以比我們最初預期的要好，部分原因就在於此。所以我覺得，目前我們在定價方面擁有絕對的話語權。

Okay. And then on the PEO and insurance segment in the quarter, the deceleration there, there a few percent take their that you mentioned -- both of you mentioned. The softness -- if the implied sort of dissolution in the quarter in PEO and insurance just really solely or more due to the softness on the insurance side, can you just sort of speak to the underlying growth rate of appeal sort of ex Oasis in the quarter and kind of disaggregate the insurance from the PEO performance for us?

好的。然後，關於本季 PEO 和保險業務板塊，增速放緩了，正如你們兩位提到的，增速下降了幾個百分點。如果本季 PEO 和保險業務的疲軟僅僅是或更多地由於保險業務的疲軟造成的，那麼您能否談談本季度除 Oasis 之外的潛在吸引力增長率，並為我們分析一下保險業務與 PEO 業務的業績差異？

Yes. Thanks, Ramsey. So I would say, just to be clear, the PEO business has been growing solid double digits. So it can do very well. In the quarter, the -- we knew that workers' comp was coming up against a tough compare because much of the softness in workers' comp occurred in the back half of last fiscal and so it was a little bit more pronounced that we anticipated. That's part one. And then part 2 is, in the PEO, the attachment of at-risk insurance impacts the revenue, it has no impact -- has very little impact, I should say, on margin. So we saw little bit less at-risk insurance attachment in the quarter. I would just mention that, that varies widely from quarter-to-quarter. So you can find a big client that has a lot of work -- I'm sorry, that has a lot of health care attachment, revenues go up and it really doesn't change in your margin, but it doesn't do much for the bottom line. So we saw a little bit of softness on both of those.

是的。謝謝你，拉姆齊。所以我想明確地說，PEO 業務一直保持著兩位數的穩健成長。所以它能做得很好。本季度，我們知道工傷賠償金面臨嚴峻的比較，因為工傷賠償金的疲軟主要發生在上個財年的下半年，因此實際情況比我們預期的要嚴重一些。這是第一部分。第二部分是，在 PEO 中，附加風險保險對收入的影響，對利潤率的影響很小，應該說沒有影響。因此，本季我們看到風險保險附加額略有下降。我只想提一下，這種情況每季變化很大。所以，你可以找到一個有很多業務的大客戶——抱歉，這個客戶有很多醫療保健方面的業務，收入會增加，但你的利潤率並不會因此改變，對最終利潤的影響也不大。所以我們看到這兩款產品都稍微柔和一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh of Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Nice job on the management solutions. Can you give us a sense of how much of that was better retention as opposed to just any thoughts around kind of drove that upside?

管理方案做得很好。您能否告訴我們，這種成長有多少是因為用戶留存率的提高，又有多少是因為其他因素（例如一些想法）所推動的？

Yes. I think I'll let Efrain speak on that too. The client retention continues to be at our highest level. So we're feeling very good where we ended last year with a record high, and we continued right through the first quarter. So feel very good about the client retention piece of it. And then there were a few other changes that Efrain would want to speak to.

是的。我想我也讓埃弗雷恩談談這個問題。客戶留存率持續保持在最高水準。所以，我們感覺非常好，因為去年年底我們創下了歷史新高，而且我們在第一季也延續了這股勢頭。所以，我對客戶留存率方面非常滿意。此外，埃弗雷恩還想談談其他一些變化。

Yes. So Kevin, the -- we saw, as Marty mentioned, strong retention in the quarter. We had strong rate meaning combination of discounts and price increases sticking. Those were good. We had increases in the client base. We had a lot of good things happen in the quarter that make us incrementally more bullish. I'd say 2 other things that are important relative to the results in the quarter. The first is that, we saw very good performance coming out of our mid-market segment on the sales side. (inaudible) also helped it was really not a significant contributor, but it made us incrementally more bullish going into the back half of the year. And the other thing I would say is that we saw strong performance coming out of our PEO business from a sales standpoint that also -- even though the revenue was a little softer, we feel pretty good about where we're at. By the way, just a final point on that, worksite employees -- before I get the question, worksite employees -- worksite employee growth was strong in the quarter.

是的。所以凱文，正如馬蒂提到的那樣，我們看到本季客戶留存率很高。我們採取了強勢策略，這意味著折扣和價格上漲的組合策略將持續有效。那些都不錯。我們的客戶群有所成長。本季發生了很多好事，讓我們對前景更加樂觀。我認為還有兩件事與本季的業績密切相關。首先，我們在中端市場銷售方面取得了非常好的業績。（聽不清楚）也起到了一定的作用，雖然它實際上並不是一個重要的貢獻因素，但它讓我們對下半年的前景更加樂觀。另外，我想說的是，從銷售角度來看，我們的 PEO 業務表現強勁，儘管收入略有下降，但我們對目前的狀況感到相當滿意。順便提一下，關於工作場所員工——在我被問到之前，工作場所員工——本季工作場所員工增長強勁。

Great. And just because -- obviously, you're seeing overall payroll slow, it looks like you're business fundamentally is accelerated. Marty, is that kind of the benefit from the investments in the last couple of years or as you're kind of repositioning the company? Or just any thoughts on that?

偉大的。顯然，儘管整體薪資成長放緩，但看起來您的業務從根本上來說卻在加速成長。馬蒂，這是過去幾年投資帶來的收益，還是你對公司進行重新定位的結果？或者大家對此有什麼想法？

Well, yes. I think we definitely have been repositioning the company from a couple of standpoints. One his, from a tech perspective, the company is much more -- Paychex is much more our technology company now providing service as well than it has been in the past. And all the investments are really paying off like the things that I listed out. This is a -- and it's impacting not only the clients and their retention and their value and satisfaction, but also the employees of the clients. So our business and the products that we're introducing very much focus on the employees, and it's kind of perfect timing for a market that's difficult to hire and retain employees for small and midsized businesses. So the fact that we have a 401(k), for example, that you can sign up for -- participants can sign up for in 4 clicks in a mobile app, it's a 5-star rated app, it makes it easy to sign up. That participation is up double digits because. That drives better retention of 401(k). That also drives a retention of the employees and it's better for the clients. The other positioning of the company is certainly more to HR. The sales process today is very much about an HR overall need than it is for payroll by itself. And we've been positioning the company that way whether it's through PEO or frankly, through the power of kind of over 3,000 salespeople. We use the power of those 3,000 salespeople to not necessarily the old way, sell payroll then call them back for other services, but basically, look at their needs upfront and sell the value of HR and the full product suite that Paychex can offer up front. So definitely the company has been -- we've been repositioning the technology side of it and the HR side of it. And that has made a big difference as payroll has become more or less a more of a commodity type of thing and the need of the client has been much more about HR retirement, the HR generalist. We have 600 HR generalist now of the year serving the worksite employees that we serve in PEO our ASO. It's a huge need now given the changes in regulations and complexity.

是的。我認為我們確實從幾個方面對公司進行了重新定位。從技術角度來看，Paychex 如今已不僅僅是一家技術公司，它現在也比過去更好地提供服務。所有的投資都確實帶來了回報，就像我列出的那些一樣。這是一個問題——它不僅影響客戶及其保留率、價值和滿意度，而且還影響客戶的員工。因此，我們的業務和我們推出的產品都非常注重員工，對於中小企業來說，這是一個招募和留住員工非常困難的市場，而現在正是推出這些產品的好時機。例如，我們有 401(k) 計劃，您可以註冊——參與者只需在行動應用程式上點擊 4 次即可註冊，這是一個 5 星級應用程序，註冊非常方便。參與人數增加兩位數的原因是：這有助於提高 401(k) 計劃的保留率。這也有助於留住員工，對顧客也有好處。公司的另一項定位無疑更側重於人力資源。如今的銷售流程更與人力資源的整體需求相關，而不僅僅是與薪資本身相關。我們一直按照這個方向定位公司，無論是透過 PEO，還是坦白說，透過 3000 多名銷售人員的力量。我們利用這 3000 名銷售人員的力量，不一定是採用老方法，先賣工資單，然後再打電話給他們推銷其他服務，而是直接了解他們的需求，並直接推銷人力資源的價值以及 Paychex 可以提供的全套產品。所以公司確實一直在進行調整——我們一直在重新定位公司的技術面和人力資源方面。這造成了很大的變化，因為薪資發放或多或少變成了一種商品，而客戶的需求更多是關於人力資源退休和人力資源通才。我們現在有 600 名人力資源專員，為我們 PEO 或 ASO 的工作場所員工提供服務。鑑於法規的變化和複雜性，現在這方面的需求非常迫切。

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut of Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

This is Rayna Kumar on for David Tougut. You called out another strong sales bookings quarter. Could you maybe discuss in which products and segments of the market you saw the best growth?

這裡是雷娜·庫瑪爾，替大衛·圖古特為您報道。你預測又一個銷售訂單強勁的季度即將到來。能否請您談談您認為哪些產品和細分市場成長最為顯著？

Well, we don't bring it down too much that we get past selling season in the next quarter or so we have a better sense of the year. But definitely, as Efrain mentioned, the mid-market sales in particular we so very strong growth. And this has been more of a challenge over the last couple of years for us once we got investments in technology and product out there. We also have very solid leadership team in that mid-market, and we've performed extremely well and that fourth quarter. So I would say, certainly, the PEO, the retirement business, et cetera, but when you look, the mid-market stands out, certainly, from the start of the year. And actually, as we ended last year as well, but this first quarter was really strong in the mid-market. And that's a real positive was because we had -- certainly, over the last couple of years, hadn't been quite as strong as we thought we needed to be, and we're very pleased with where we started out.

嗯，我們不會把預期降低太多，等到銷售旺季過去後，在接下來的一個季度左右，我們對全年的業績會有更好的把握。但正如埃弗雷恩所提到的那樣，中端市場的銷售額確實實現了非常強勁的成長。過去幾年，隨著我們在技術和產品方面的投資不斷湧現，這對我們來說變得越來越具有挑戰性。我們在中端市場也擁有一支非常強大的領導團隊，而且我們在第四季表現非常出色。所以，我肯定會說，PEO（專業雇主組織）、退休業務等等，但當你觀察時，你會發現中端市場表現突出，尤其是在年初的時候。事實上，去年年底的情況也是如此，但今年第一季中階市場表現非常強勁。這是一個正面的信號，因為在過去的幾年裡，我們的表現確實沒有達到我們預期的水平，但我們對目前的成績非常滿意。

Great. That's very helpful. And then you called out a number of real-time payment products. Can you maybe discuss the time line for rollout and the revenue model associated with these products?

偉大的。那很有幫助。然後你列舉了一些即時支付產品。您能否談談這些產品的推出時間表和相關的獲利模式？

Well, sure. The end of this calendar year, we'll have the kind of pay-on-demand. So to make sure I'm clear on this, so the pay-on-demand obviously offers employees of clients the ability to take some wages out earlier than waiting for their 2-week period, et cetera. Real-time payments, we see coming in early 2020. We think we'll be one of the first, if not the first, to offer real-time payments. This is really more of accelerate -- we offer same-day HCH today if you have a late-last minute change in your payroll, if you need to make some changes, if you need to do something at the last minute and be sure the funds are there. And there is some charges for that and we expect it will be some charges for real-time payments, which takes back to the next level of making it immediately available. Real-time ACH has -- or ACH same-day has some limitations from a timing perspective depending on banks so forth. And real-time payments will really kind of wipeout most of those limitations, and you'll be able to get funds in your employees accounts basically in real time.

當然可以。到今年年底，我們將迎來按需付費模式。為了確保我理解正確，按需支付顯然允許客戶的員工提前領取部分工資，而無需等待兩週的結算週期等等。即時支付預計將於 2020 年初推出。我們認為，即使不是第一家，我們也會是首批提供即時支付服務的公司之一。這實際上更像是加速——如果您在最後一刻需要對工資單進行一些更改，或者需要在最後一刻做某事並確保資金到位，我們今天即可提供當日 HCH 服務。而且這會產生一些費用，我們預計即時支付也會產生一些費用，這又回到了讓服務立即可用的下一個階段。即時 ACH 或當日 ACH 在時間方面存在一些限制，取決於銀行等因素。即時支付將真正消除大部分此類限制，您基本上可以將資金即時存入員工帳戶。

Our next question comes from Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的吉姆·施耐德。

I wanted to maybe follow-up on the improvement you called out both in management solutions and also the mid-market. Is that more of a function of the enhancements you've made with Paychex Flex? Any color you can put around that? And also maybe just talk about how much of that's being improved by the sales force enhancements and channel strategy? Any think in terms of color you could provide around that will be great.

我想就您提到的管理解決方案和中端市場的改進進行一些後續跟進。這更多是由於您對 Paychex Flex 所做的改進所造成的嗎？可以用什麼顏色來搭配它？或許還可以談談銷售團隊的改進和通路策略在多大程度上改善了這些面向？如果您能提供一些關於色彩方面的建議，那就太好了。

Yes. Sure. I think it's a little bit of both. I think certainly the product is -- the enhancements to Flex have been significant, not only from the payroll side, but the integration side and all -- some of the products and features that we discussed today. Even like the payroll grid, offering many more options and making it just easier for them to go from a payroll standpoint. But the integration of the HR and I think the sales team and sales -- so their effectiveness and the sales approach is being much more about HR first instead of leading with payroll coming in and offering the full suite of products that we offer. And then also, as I mentioned today in the comments, offering others to have -- we have a full set of APIs to other providers of on-demand services and HR products and accounting products and that is getting broader, and I think we see that as well. We certainly offer a one solution set. That's the great thing about Paychex. We can have them all fully integrated into Flex if you want it. But if you're on an HR on an accounting system that you want to make sure you keep an interface into Flex, you can do that as well. So I think it's that approach. I also think the employee approach, Jim, that we -- I mentioned earlier, really doing things with the mobile app is making self-service mode available to their employees, not only their checks, their W-2s, signing up -- signing off on time, in attendance, changing schedules, setting up your 401(k), all of that is adding a lot of value to the mid-market in particular, and we're seeing that payoff for us. So we're very pleased with the first quarter start.

是的。當然。我認為兩者兼而有之。我認為該產品確實有所改進——Flex 的改進非常顯著，不僅體現在薪資方面，還體現在整合方面等等——我們今天討論的一些產品和功能。就像工資表一樣，它提供了更多選擇，從工資的角度來看，也讓他們更容易操作。但我認為，人力資源部門與銷售團隊和銷售部門的整合——因此，他們的效率和銷售方法更多是以人力資源為先，而不是以薪資部門為先，並提供我們提供的全套產品。此外，正如我今天在評論中提到的，我們也向其他人提供——我們擁有一整套 API，可以與其他按需服務、人力資源產品和會計產品提供者對接，而且這種趨勢還在不斷擴大，我認為我們也看到了這一點。我們當然提供一套完整的解決方案。這就是Paychex的優勢。如果您需要，我們可以將它們全部完全整合到 Flex 中。但是，如果您在會計系統中擔任人力資源職務，並且想要確保與 Flex 保持接口，您也可以這樣做。所以我認為就是這種方法。吉姆，我也認為我們採用的員工方法——我之前提到過，我們真正利用行動應用程式開展工作，為員工提供自助服務模式，不僅可以查看支票、W-2 表格、註冊——準時簽到、考勤、更改日程安排、設置 401(k) 計劃等等，所有這些都為中端市場帶來了巨大的價值，我們也看到了這種做法帶來的回報。所以我們對第一季的開局非常滿意。

Great. And then maybe as a follow-up. On the PEO, the reduced guidance, you called out several of these -- (inaudible) factors on the insurance side. But I want to make sure that I'm clear. In terms of what you're seeing in the core PEO business, is there any slowdown there, either in terms of market demand or from a competitive positioning standpoint? And maybe just talk about how the Oasis expected growth is going relative to what you thought it was going to be?

偉大的。然後或許可以作為後續報道。關於 PEO 和減少的指導，您提到了保險方面的幾個因素——（聽不清楚）因素。但我希望確保我的意思表達清楚。就您目前在核心 PEO 業務方面所看到的，無論是市場需求還是競爭地位方面，是否有任何放緩跡象？或許可以聊聊 Oasis 的預期成長與你預期相比如何？

Yes. So Jim, 2 parts of that. So the short answer is no. But let me explain why because it's important to understand (inaudible). So when some question started to rise, I got -- started to get calls relative to what are you seeing with respect to worksite employee growth within existing clients. I did a deeper dive to understand what was going on, and we are seeing solid worksite employee growth within existing clients. So that was an issue that came up and was commented on. So we're not seeing any of that. That's one. Second, if I look at worksite employee growth, worksite employee growth, again, has been solid in the quarter. So we're not seeing anything there. On the Oasis side, in order for us to get fully optimized for Oasis, we are in the process of ramping sales efforts there, and I think that process is ongoing. So it's -- there -- I agree that somewhat idiosyncratic, the reasons for the slight modification in the guidance, but it has no -- it really is not indicative of any changes, both in demand patterns and in -- or the underlying market. If I called out the growth rate on sales and PEO, I will just say this, it's multiples of revenue growth. So that's one reason why we feel pretty comfortable about where we're at.

是的。吉姆，這是其中的兩個部分。所以簡而言之，答案是否定的。但讓我解釋一下原因，因為理解這一點很重要（聽不清楚）。所以當一些問題開始出現時，我開始接到一些電話，詢問我在現有客戶的工作場所員工成長方面看到了什麼。我進行了深入調查，以了解發生了什麼，我們發現現有客戶的工作場所員工人數穩定成長。所以，這是一個被提出並且被討論的問題。所以我們沒有看到任何這種情況。這是其中之一。其次，如果我看一下工作場所員工成長情況，那麼本季工作場所員工成長情況依然穩健。所以，我們什麼也沒看到。在 Oasis 方面，為了讓 Oasis 得到全面優化，我們正在加大銷售力度，我認為這個過程仍在進行中。所以——我同意——這有點特殊，這是對指導方針進行輕微修改的原因，但這——這真的不表明需求模式或基礎市場有任何變化。如果我要指出銷售額和 PEO 的成長率，我只想說，它是收入成長的數倍。所以，這也是我們對現狀感到相當滿意的原因之一。

And the trends in the Oasis you're seeing?

你觀察到的綠洲地區的趨勢是什麼？

Yes. I was just talking primarily on the sales side. The integration is going well, and we're in the process of pulling it into the Paychex family book.

是的。我主要談的是銷售方面的內容。整合進展順利，我們正在將其納入 Paychex 集團旗下。

Yes. We're at this point of finalizing all combination of the sales teams and service teams. But we feel like the integration is going well, and we're feeling very good about it. We're also -- of course, with Paychex or some of that integration, we have the insurance agency, the 21st largest in the country. So when underwriting, if it doesn't fit the PEO, we have that option to take them through the insurance agency. That some of the changes that Efrain mentioned as well, we're getting more through that insurance agency and that's going well as well. So you don't have to turn down a client, something that many times Oasis had to turn down in the past possibly over underwriting. We can now move them to the agency and offer them insurance through the agency itself. So we feel good about the start here and integration is certainly on track.

是的。我們現在正處於最終確定銷售團隊和服務團隊所有組合的階段。但我們覺得整合進展順利，對此我們感到非常滿意。當然，透過與 Paychex 的整合，我們也擁有了全國排名第 21 的保險代理商。因此，在承保時，如果 PEO 不符合要求，我們可以選擇透過保險代理機構進行承保。埃弗雷恩提到的一些變化，我們也正在透過那家保險公司獲得更多，而且進展順利。這樣一來，你就不必拒絕客戶了，而 Oasis 過去常常因為承保問題而不得不拒絕客戶。現在我們可以將他們轉移到代理機構，並透過代理機構為他們提供保險。所以我們對目前的開局感到滿意，整合工作也肯定是照計畫進行。

Our next question comes from James Berkley of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 James Berkley。

Not to beat a dead horse on the PEO side, but I guess just trying to be like more direct. You guys are still trending -- a couple of quarters ago, you said bookings in PEO space were low double digits? Are you guys still in that range? And all the worksite apply, I think, it was double digits last quarter. Can you confirm if it's still double digits this quarter?

我不想再對 PEO 這邊進行無止盡的批評，但我只是想表達得更直接一些。你們的業績依然強勁——幾個季度前，你們還說PEO領域的預訂量只有兩位數呢？你們還在那個範圍內嗎？而且所有工地申請，我想，上個季度都是兩位數。你能確認本季是否仍是兩位數嗎？

I think I said that, James. It was strong.

我想我說過這話，詹姆斯。它很強勁。

Okay. And then I guess, Efrain, just -- we talked a few days ago, I guess, about that new HRA rule. It could be helpful just for investors to hear your thoughts on the impact there it's coming into play in January 2020?

好的。然後，我想，埃弗雷恩，我們幾天前談到了新的 HRA 規則。如果投資人能聽到您對這項政策在2020年1月生效的影響的看法，或許會很有幫助？

Yes. So this is a new legislation that makes it easier for employers to use HRAs an alternative for funding health care plans. And the questions that have come up from investors are around the impact on the PEO side of the ledger, will this impact any of those. And we've looked at it. Of course, until it's in place and people are actually having the opportunity to take advantage of HRAs in a different way, it's -- you can't say 100%, but we feel pretty comfortable that, that should not have a significant impact on PEO growth.

是的。這是一項新的立法，旨在讓雇主更容易使用 HRA 作為醫療保健計劃的替代資金來源。投資人提出的問題是，這會對 PEO 方面的帳目產生什麼影響，會不會對這些方面產生影響。我們已經研究過了。當然，在它真正落實到位，人們真正有機會以不同的方式利用 HRA 之前，你不能說 100%，但我們相當有信心，這應該不會對 PEO 的成長產生重大影響。

Yes. We've had -- we've offered HRA's for some time. I don't think -- even with a legislation that gives some support in credits, I think -- it doesn't seem like employees are going to run from traditional insurance plans to do the funding. We've offered those, as I said, for some time and seen -- not have seen a great uptake. I think there's some businesses that do that, but I don't think there will be any major shift that we would expect that's going to happen from traditional insurance plans over to the HRAs.

是的。我們已經提供 HRA 一段時間了。我不認為——即使有立法提供一些稅收抵免支持——員工會放棄傳統的保險計劃來支付這筆費用。正如我所說，我們已經提供這些服務一段時間了，但我們並沒有看到很大的反響。我認為有些企業會這樣做，但我認為不會出現我們預期中從傳統保險計劃轉變為健康報銷帳戶 (HRA) 的重大趨勢。

Our next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Lisa Ellis。

I guess I'll ask the inevitable macroeconomic question. Marty, can you give some color on what you're seeing on sort of the second-order dynamics around the macro environment. I know you have a very unique look into things like obviously employment grew, but also like small business survival rates, the attach rates, the value-added services like benefits, et cetera. Can you give us a little color there?

我想我還是會問那個不可避免的宏觀經濟問題。馬蒂，你能否詳細說說你​​觀察到的宏觀環境二階動態變化？我知道你對就業成長等議題有著非常獨特的見解，但對小型企業存活率、附加率、福利等加值服務等議題也是如此。你能為我們添一點細節嗎？

Yes. I think we reported our small business index yesterday and actually, we had an uptick from September to August. 1 month doesn't make a year or trend. But job growth actually ticked up a bit. These were businesses under 50 employees. And we saw some growth, not only -- improvement in the job growth, it's still down about 1% less job growth from last year, but this was the first time we've seen an uptick in a couple of years where it moved up month to month. We also saw wages in hours worked up. So wages looking -- pushed up from about 2.6% wage increase to 2.8% and hours worked went up. So I think small businesses are still feeling, overall, a little shaky on the economy and what's going to happen. But generally, they're getting good product demand for their services. And they're -- still their biggest challenge is hiring enough people to fulfill the demand. So we also data business sentiment report and everything was positive, everything had gone up from the previous report probably 6 to 9 months ago that felt that it would be easier for them to -- a little bit easier for them to hire, a little easier for them to get capital. So I think while the economy itself makes them a little cautious, I think that they're feeling like right now they're getting good product demand and their biggest challenge is hiring. So you saw the hours go up because they're working who they have more to fulfill the demand and the wages are going up as they're trying to raise wages to get to a -- to pick up the employee. So overall, pretty positive actually with our latest report that just came out yesterday.

是的。我認為我們昨天公佈了小型企業指數，實際上，與 8 月相比，9 月的指數有所上升。一個月的時間並不能代表一年的趨勢。但就業成長實際上略有上升。這些企業員工人數均不足50人。我們看到了一些成長，不僅就業成長有所改善，雖然仍然比去年下降了約 1%，但這是我們近年來第一次看到就業成長逐月上升。我們也看到了以工時計算的工資。所以薪資方面——薪資漲幅從大約 2.6% 提高到 2.8%，工作時間也增加了。所以我覺得，整體而言，小企業仍然對經濟狀況和未來走向感到有些不安。但總的來說，他們的服務產品需求良好。他們目前面臨的最大挑戰仍然是招募足夠的人手來滿足需求。所以我們也收集了商業情緒報告，結果顯示一切都是正面的，所有數據都比 6 到 9 個月前的報告有所上升，這表明企業更容易——更容易招聘，更容易獲得資金。所以我覺得，雖然經濟狀況本身讓他們有些謹慎，但他們覺得目前產品需求良好，他們面臨的最大挑戰是招募。所以你會看到工時增加了，因為他們為了滿足需求而讓更多的人工作，工資也上漲了，因為他們試圖提高工資以吸引員工。總的來說，我們昨天發布的最新報告相當正面。

The other thing, Lisa, and as Marty mentioned it yesterday, is SMBs are typically a little less impacted by slowdowns in global trade. So in that segment of the economy, obviously, larger multinationals and enterprise-level companies are starting to feel the pinch. You're not feeling as much of that lower down the employee count. So it's not impossible to have results like this in one segment of the economy where you see more concern and pessimism in other part of the economies.

麗莎，還有一點，就像馬蒂昨天提到的那樣，中小企業通常受全球貿易放緩的影響較小。因此，很明顯，在這一經濟領域，大型跨國公司和企業級公司開始感受到壓力。員工人數較少時，這種感覺就沒那麼明顯了。因此，在經濟的某個領域出現這樣的結果並非不可能，因為在其他經濟領域，人們會感到更多的擔憂和悲觀。

Yes. We've talked about tariffs and trade issues. And we found in surveying clients that about 3/4 of that small businesses are not impacted. Generally, they're regional businesses, they're the lawyer's office, the doctor's office, the restaurants, et cetera, the contractors. They're not impacted. The 25% -- the 1/4 that are and a little bit of a time changing their supply chain and so they don't have the leverage of larger companies. But 1/4 of them really don't feel like they would be impacted by trade issues or tariff issues.

是的。我們已經討論過關稅和貿易問題。我們在對客戶進行調查後發現，大約四分之三的小型企業並未受到影響。一般來說，它們是區域性企業，例如律師事務所、醫生診所、餐廳等等，還有承包商。他們不受影響。25%——也就是那四分之一——正在經歷供應鏈變革的人們，他們沒有大公司的議價能力。但其中 1/4 的人並不認為自己會受到貿易問題或關稅問題的影響。

All right. And maybe as my follow-up, and this one's probably for Efrain, give your perspective or your best perspective on how you anticipate the PEO business performing if and when we see a macro slowdown? I mean I know that there is an argument that PEO should actually pick up because the cost in economic value proposition is so strong for small businesses, but then on the other hand, it's also got a perks component to it. Just what's your view on that?

好的。或許我可以接著問你一個問題，這個問題可能要問 Efrain，請你談談你對 PEO 業務在宏觀經濟放緩時的表現有何看法或最佳見解？我知道有人認為 PEO 實際上應該被接受，因為對於小型企業來說，其成本效益非常高，但另一方面，它也包含一些福利。你對此有何看法？

Yes. So I think the first thing to understand that question is what's the average size, at least, in our base for PEOs, and typically, a PEO in our world is in the 25 to 30 employee range. So you're comfortably out of the 20-and-under zone where you would tend to see more of an impact from a macro slowdown. And what I mean by that specifically is, 20 and above, you start to see a lot less impact from business failures in the event of a downturn. You see that increasing as you go down the employee count. So now you're in an area of the economy where the employer -- employers where you tend to see less of an impact from macroeconomic slowdown. And then the question is, in that kind of environment, do you have a greater demand for HR Services or do you have a low demand for HR Services? And when you think about it, the balance really kind of lies on a greater demand for managing your workforce in the event of a downturn. So I wouldn't go so far as to say it would not be impacted. I think there be some impact, but it'll certainly be less impacted than a typical small business would be.

是的。所以我認為要理解這個問題，首先要了解 PEO 的平均規模是多少，至少在我們所知的 PEO 中，通常情況下，我們所知的 PEO 的員工人數在 25 到 30 人之間。所以你的經濟狀況已經遠遠脫離了20%及以下的區間，在這個區間內，宏觀經濟放緩往往會對你產生更大的影響。我的意思是，當企業倒閉數量達到 20 家以上時，經濟衰退帶來的影響就會大大減少。你會發現，隨著員工人數的減少，這種情況會越來越嚴重。所以現在你所處的經濟領域，雇主——也就是那些受宏觀經濟放緩影響較小的群體——往往受到的影響較小。那麼問題來了，在這種環境下，您對人力資源服務的需求是更高還是更低？仔細想想，平衡的關鍵在於，在經濟低迷時期，管理員工的需求會更大。所以我不會斷言它不會受到影響。我認為會有一些影響，但肯定比一般的小企業受到的影響要小。

And less impacted we are than we used to be. If you went back in the last recession, and we were primarily a payroll company, I think we feel that really half of our revenue coming from nonpayroll services and moving to more than half coming from nonpayroll, that also changes kind of the impact to us as a company in a recessionary period.

我們受到的影響比以前小了許多。如果回顧上一次經濟衰退時期，我們當時主要是一家薪資服務公司，我認為，我們感覺，我們一半的收入來自非薪資服務，而現在超過一半的收入來自非薪資服務，這也改變了經濟衰退時期對我們公司的影響。

And one final point which Marty raises, which is important. When we went into the recession last time, which was is the '08 timeframe, we were heavily dependent on float income. Almost 30% -- somewhere between 25% and 30% of our net income was by float. We're in a completely different company no. And I've heard people make the argument and hey, look, I like a good argument like anyone else does, but I do think the data suggests that we are different.

馬蒂提出的最後一點也很重要。上次經濟衰退的時候，也就是 2008 年，我們嚴重依賴浮動收益收入。我們淨收入的近 30%——大約在 25% 到 30% 之間——來自浮存金。我們不在同一家公司。我聽過有人提出這種論點，嘿，聽著，我和其他人一樣喜歡好的論點，但我確實認為數據顯示我們有所不同。

Our next question comes from Bryan Kane of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩凱恩。

Just looking to get a couple of clarifications. What was the revenue growth contribution of Oasis in the quarter, trying to get into an organic growth number in the PEO insurance in the first quarter?

想請教幾個問題。Oasis 在本季對營收成長的貢獻是多少？該公司力求在第一季實現 PEO 保險業務的內生成長。

So Bryan, I called it out as a little less than 10, our organic growth was between 5 and 6.

所以布萊恩，我估計略低於 10，我們的自然成長率在 5 到 6 之間。

Inside of PEO and insurance?

PEO和保險業內部運作？

No, total revenue. We didn't split it out like that. I just cautioned that if you want to know growth rate for PEO was in the quarter, PEO not PEO and insurance, it was solid double-digit.

不，是總收入。我們沒有那樣拆分。我只是想提醒一下，如果你想知道 PEO 的季度成長率，注意是 PEO 本身的成長率，而不是 PEO 和保險的成長率，那麼它的成長率達到了兩位數。

Yes. I'm just trying to get -- there was about $15 million GAAP, I think, in street numbers in PEO and insurance versus the actuals. It sounds like...

是的。我只是想弄清楚——我認為，PEO 和保險業的市場數據與實際數據之間大約有 1500 萬美元的 GAAP 差額。聽起來像…

Yes. Yes. Yes. So part of that, Bryan -- I called out, part of it is that at the end of fourth quarter, we made a small classification change in staffing revenue, which some people picked up and some people did not. I would just caution you, you can come back to me off-line and I'll walk you through the numbers, but the starting point was a little bit different. We made that change, not everyone picked it up. So I think it's part of it. I think that's generating part of the change there. And so part of that moved into management (inaudible). That probably accounts for a good chunk of the difference.

是的。是的。是的。布萊恩，我指出，部分原因是，在第四季度末，我們對人員配備收入進行了小的分類變更，有些人注意到了這一點，有些人則沒有註意到。我得提醒你一下，你可以私下找我，我會一步步幫你計算，但起點可能有點不同。我們做出了改變，但並非所有人都接受了。所以我認為這是其中的一部分。我認為這在一定程度上促成了那裡的變化。因此，其中一部分人轉入了管理層（聽不清楚）。這或許可以解釋很大一部分差異。

Okay. Helpful. And then just on the guidance in PEO and insurance to be towards the lower end of 11% to 14%. Is that the workers' comp will drag a little longer than you expected? Just trying to make sure that I understand the change.

好的。很有幫助。然後，PEO 和保險業的指導意見是，佔比應在 11% 到 14% 的較低水準。工傷賠償的審批時間會比你預期的長嗎？我只是想確保我理解這項變化。

Yes. A workers' comp started a bit more slowly than we had anticipated and Q1, and I called out at-risk health care and insurance attachment rates based on what we saw in the first quarter. We're working through all of that with now 3 pieces of the PEO, and we think that, that number is going to be a little bit lower. But I would just caution one thing about that, that really doesn't have that much of an impact on margins. And then the second thing is, I could come back next quarter and say, hey, the attachment rate actually ended up being a little bit higher. It's a little bit tough to nail it with precision, but we'll keep updating it.

是的。第一季工傷賠償的進展比我們預期的要慢一些，我根據第一季的情況指出了高風險醫療保健和保險附加率。我們正在與 PEO 的 3 個部門一起解決所有這些問題，我們認為，這個數字會稍微降低一些。但我需要提醒一點，這其實對利潤率的影響並不大。其次，我下個季度可能會回來告訴大家，嘿，實際的附加率實際上略高一些。要做到精準有點難，但我們會不斷更新。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas of William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的安德魯尼古拉斯家族。

Just to stick with Oasis briefly. I think, based on my math, Oasis did maybe $85 million or so in the quarter, which I think was maybe $5 million or $6 million below last quarter. Just wondering if there's anything to highlight on the step down, if there's any seasonal factors to consider? And if that was in line with your expectations as of last earnings call?

簡單來說，還是聊聊綠洲樂團吧。根據我的計算，我認為 Oasis 本季可能實現了 8,500 萬美元左右的收入，這比上一季少了 500 萬到 600 萬美元。想問一下，在降級過程中有沒有什麼需要特別注意的地方，有沒有什麼季節性因素需要考慮？如果這與您上次財報電話會議後的預期一致的話？

Yes. I don't do on the spot math. I would say that our -- Oasis was pretty much in line with our expectations. So I'd have to go through that with you to make sure that you're using the right set of numbers.

是的。我不會現場計算。我覺得我們的綠洲酒店基本上符合我們的預期。所以我需要和你一起檢查一下，確保你使用的數字是正確的。

Okay. Fair enough. And then with respect to the PEO market, just curious if you've seen any changes in the competitive landscape recently? I think more specifically, I'm curious about when you're going head-to-head with another PEO, which I recognized isn't as frequent, but when you are, what are the determining factors in winning or losing business? And relatively, how important is pricing in those conversations and if you've seen any changes in the pricing dynamics as well?

好的。很公平。關於PEO市場，您最近是否觀察到競爭格局有任何變化？更具體地說，我很好奇當你與其他 PEO 正面競爭時（我知道這種情況並不常見），決定業務成敗的關鍵因素是什麼？相對而言，價格在這些討論中有多重要？您是否也觀察到價格動態發生了任何變化？

Yes. Really haven't seen any changes in the competitive market for PEO. And in fact, I think with Oasis in giving us some new markets, we're in some new markets, it really comes down a lot of times from a competitive standpoint. So you're not seeing so many -- you're really not single competitors, think of the same competitors. And we're a little bit larger, obviously, now at this point, being the second largest. And I think it's really the insurance plans, which we feel really good about having the insurance plans. And of course, the service that you provide with the HR specialist. And I think we've been able to demonstrate that we've been in this business for a long time, both PEO and ASO. And by the way we can offer either one of them. That's part of the new branding of Paychex One is the brand of our HR Outsourcing. So you can go PEO, you can go ASO with us. We've been in this business for 20 years. We have 600 HR specialists out there, and we have great insurance plans and we continue to have -- expect to have those. And that's really when it comes down to is, what's the service model, what's the insurance plan that you offered, what's your history and the ability to offer that service. The competitive nature hasn't changed much, I think we're very well positioned to win in this market.

是的。PEO（專業雇主組織）市場的競爭格局並沒有任何變化。事實上，我認為 Oasis 為我們帶來了新的市場，我們進入了一些新的市場，從競爭的角度來看，很多時候這真的會降低我們的競爭力。所以你看到的競爭對手並不多——你們其實不是單一的競爭對手，想想那些相同的競爭對手。很顯然，我們現在規模更大一些，是第二大公司。我覺得真正讓我們感到安心的是保險計劃，我們對擁有這些保險計劃感到非常滿意。當然，還有您透過人力資源專員提供的服務。我認為我們已經能夠證明，我們在 PEO 和 ASO 這兩個行業都深耕多年。順便說一句，我們可以提供其中任何一種。這是 Paychex One 新品牌形象的一部分，Paychex One 是我們人力資源外包服務的品牌。所以你可以選擇 PEO，也可以選擇 ASO。我們從事這個行業已經20年了。我們有 600 名人力資源專家，我們有很好的保險計劃，我們將繼續保持這些計劃——預計未來也將繼續保持。歸根究底，關鍵在於：你的服務模式是什麼？你提供的保險計劃是什麼？你的過往業績如何？你是否有能力提供這項服務？競爭格局並沒有太大變化，我認為我們在這個市場中處於非常有利的地位，能夠贏得勝利。

Hey, one other point to your earlier question and you can call me back off-line. I would caution with saying that, that revenue was sequential in PEO. Certain quarters, there's cyclicity in quarters. And typically in the back half of the year, you have higher revenue than the first half of the year. So it's not (inaudible) compared to look at it quarter by quarter because it bounces around.

嘿，關於你之前的問題，還有一點要補充，你可以稍後再回電給我。我不同意這樣說，PEO 的收入是連續成長的。某些季度，季度之間存在週期性波動。通常情況下，下半年的收入會高於上半年。所以，與逐季度觀察相比，它並不（聽不清楚），因為它波動很大。

Our next question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Just a couple of questions on the HR. On the management solutions side, that was clearly better, you laid out a lot of reason. But versus your 3% 4%, what was the difference there? I know the reclass maybe contributed a little bit. But can you comment on payroll HCM pricing, maybe link it for us?

關於人力資源方面，我還有幾個問題。在管理解決方案方面，顯然做得更好，你列舉了許多理由。但與你們的 3% 和 4% 相比，差異在哪裡呢？我知道重新分類可能起了一定的作用。您能否介紹一下薪資管理HCM的定價情況，或許可以提供一下相關連結？

Yes. We still would have had 5% in the absence of a reclass, so I just want to make sure that that's clear. And the other thing I want to make clear is that I did call down in Q1 due to a composition of days issue in the quarter. That did hit as. So we had just stronger performance through a combination of both, as we discussed earlier, pricing client growth, stronger mid-market performance on the sales side. The combination of all of those just ended up being stronger than we had anticipated, which was a good turn for us.

是的。即使沒有重新分類，我們仍然會有 5% 的比例，所以我只是想確保這一點很清楚。另外，我想澄清一點，我之所以將第一季業績下調，是因為該季度業績構成存在問題。那確實很打擊人。因此，正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們透過兩者的結合取得了更強勁的業績，包括定價客戶成長和銷售方面更強勁的中端市場業績。所有這些因素結合起來，最終產生的效果比我們預想的還要好，這對我們來說是個好消息。

It is. It's great. And just on the quarterly EPS. Efrain, I think last quarter, you mentioned that the first half net income would run low single-digit growth. This came in ahead. Can you maybe help us recast second quarter versus second half, if you don't mind?

這是。這很棒。僅就季度每股收益而言。埃弗雷恩，我想上個季度你提到過，上半年的淨利潤將實現個位數低增長。它排在前面。如果您不介意的話，能否幫我們重新定義一下第二季和下半場的差異？

Yes. Well, I guess what I'd say, Tien-Tsin, is I gave fairly good guidance on what we expected revenue was going to be in the quarter and what we thought margins were going to be. So I would say implicit in what we were saying was that -- I give you a decent number for Q2, that we expect Q2, Q3 and Q4, we called out operating margins being at approximately 38% for the back half of the year. So it's going to be better. And at this point, there's an element of conservatism to what we're guiding. We're still in an uncertain interest rate environment. So we want to preserve a little bit of flexibility if the Fed decides to continue to cut without altering the guidance. So back half from an EPS standpoint is going to be stronger than the first half, even though we got off to a pretty good start in the first half of the year. (inaudible).

是的。嗯，我想說的是，田進，我對本季的預期收入和利潤率給出了相當準確的指導。所以，我認為我們所說的言下之意是——我給你一個不錯的第二季度數字，我們預計第二季、第三季和第四季度，我們指出下半年的營業利潤率約為 38%。所以情況會好轉的。而目前，我們所引導的方向帶有保守主義的成分。我們仍然處於利率環境不確定的時期。因此，如果聯準會決定在不改變指引的情況下繼續降息，我們希望保留一些彈性。因此，從每股盈餘的角度來看，下半年將會比上半年表現更好，儘管我們上半年的開局相當不錯。（聽不清楚）

Yes. No. For sure. I know the tax and interest paid them I played some smaller roles too there. So last one, I think you mentioned Efrain, 38% second half margin, is there any danger in us using that as a baseline for fiscal '21?

是的。不。一定。我知道他們繳的稅和利息，我也在其中扮演了一些小角色。最後一個問題，我想你提到了 Efrain，下半年利潤率為 38%，我們用這個數字作為 2021 財年的基準是否有風險？

Yes. There's a big danger, Tien-Tsin. Let me explain why. So when we did -- when we adopted revenue recognition, what it had the effect of with moving a revenue stream into Q3 that had previously been spread across a number of quarters. When you do that, what ends up happening is that you cyclically -- cyclically, wrong word, you create a situation where Q3 is always going to be your highest margin quarter. And the reason is very simple. You simply have more revenue with no greater associated cost. All of that drops to the bottom line and you typically seeing -- although, I called out 38% for the quarter, it's not going to be uniform -- 38% for the back half, it's not going to be 38% in Q3 and Q4. Q3 will be higher than Q4 and so that's the danger. If you just take that as the run rate for margins going forward, you're kind of not taking into account that Q4 -- I'm sorry, Q3 is going to be a higher-margin quarter now going forward. Having said all of that, we do think that -- all things being equal, we think that expenses will trend down in the back half of the year, and we'll have some opportunity to improve margin from where we are as we go into 2021. Hard to believe, but hopefully that's helpful.

是的。天心，危險很大。讓我解釋一下原因。所以，當我們採用收入確認制度時，結果是將原本分散在多個季度的收入流轉移到了第三季。當你這樣做時，最終的結果就是你會週期性地——週期性地，用詞不當——造成這樣一種局面：第三季總是你的利潤率最高的季度。原因很簡單。您無需增加任何相關成本即可獲得更多收入。所有這些都會反映在最終結果上，你通常會看到——雖然我提到本季是 38%，但這不會是一致的——下半年是 38%，第三季和第四季不會是 38%。第三季業績將高於第四季，這就是隱患所在。如果你只是把這當作未來利潤率的運行率，你就沒有考慮到第四季——抱歉，應該是第三季——的利潤率將會更高。綜上所述，我們認為——在其他條件相同的情況下——下半年支出將呈下降趨勢，隨著我們進入 2021 年，我們將有機會提高利潤率。雖然難以置信，但希望這能有所幫助。

It is. No just looking for (inaudible). You guys, obviously, going to get a little bit of benefit from some of your investments.

這是。不，只是在尋找（聽不清楚）。很顯然，你們會從一些投資中獲得一些利益。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Wald of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的史蒂文·沃爾德。

Just maybe just following up on the margin question. If there were a couple of things are wanting you can call out to hold you back whether is perpetual reinvestment or just faster-than-expected mix shift, what would keep you from something like notable margin improvements starting in 2021? And how we should think about that conceptually? As you talked about like moving towards less of a payroll model, more of a model tech model, how should be think about the margin conceptually in that lane?

或許只是想就利潤率問題做個後續跟進。如果有一些因素阻礙你前進，例如持續的再投資或比預期更快的產品組合轉變，那麼是什麼會阻止你從 2021 年開始獲得顯著的利潤率提升呢？那麼，我們該如何從概念上理解這一點呢？正如您所說，我們正在逐漸減少工資模式，並更多地採用技術模式，那麼在這個領域，我們應該如何從概念上考慮利潤率？

Yes. I guess I'd like to defer the -- a better or more complete answer to the second half of the year because trends will become more evident. But if I were to point to one thing, we've had relatively high spending. And what's been kind of unusual about our performance is that we haven't taken any charges. We have made changes on the fly. We've delivered double-digit EPS growth, and we've done that all within the context of the kind of programs that we run. So we understand that as we exit the year, some of that spending will decrease. We know that. We're working on that actively. And the question is, how much? We'll have better sense of that as we go through the second half of the year. The investments have paid off. I think the result we're seeing reflect that. And I think that all of the technology advances and improvements that Marty was mentioning are really the fruit of that accelerated investment. But you don't continue to invest at that accelerated pace, you pull some of it back down. So we anticipate as we go into '21 that that's what you would see.

是的。我想把更好或更完整的答案推遲到下半年，因為屆時趨勢會更加明顯。但如果要指出一點的話，那就是我們的支出相對較高。而我們這場比賽表現比較特別的地方在於，我們沒有被控球。我們臨時做出了一些改變。我們實現了兩位數的每股收益成長，而且這一切都是在我們所進行的這類專案的背景下實現的。因此我們了解到，隨著年底臨近，部分支出將會減少。我們知道這一點。我們正在積極推進這項工作。問題是，到底要多少錢？隨著下半年的到來，我們會對此有更清楚的認知。這些投資已經獲得了回報。我認為我們看到的結果反映了這一點。我認為馬蒂提到的所有技術進步和改進，實際上都是加速投資的成果。但你不能繼續以如此快的速度投資，你應該把一部分投資拉回來。因此，我們預計進入 2021 年後，你會看到這種情況。

Got it. And then maybe just one quick follow-up. I think earlier in your comments, you talked about the shift from being thought of our traditional payroll-driven model toward the tech offering and all of the product that you guys have been calling out and does that make sense. I guess just as we think about from a macro perspective and what we've sort of seen in your data, ATPs, broader macro data, are you guys prepared of the mind that we shouldn't think of Paychex as being heavily levered to shift in employment?

知道了。然後或許只需要一個簡短的後續問題。我認為在你之前的評論中，你談到了從傳統的工資驅動模式向技術產品和你們一直在提到的所有產品的轉變，這說得通嗎？我想，正如我們從宏觀角度思考以及從你們的數據、ATP、更廣泛的宏觀數據中看到的那樣，你們是否已經意識到，我們不應該認為 Paychex 會過度依賴就業市場的變化？

Well, I think certainly not as levered. It's going to have some impact, but I think as Efrain mentioned earlier on a question, probably more specifically on the PEO, payroll was -- especially if it's small business, payroll was very much tied, obviously, to new business startups and losses in businesses going out of business because of a tough economy. When you're 50% or more -- more of an HR time and attendance retirement, et cetera, services, non-payroll and not so focused on just the smallest clients, it's going to have a different impact. Because in a recessionary period or a downturn of employment, you're going to have a bigger need for HR. How do I retain who I have? How do I maybe layoff people? How do I make changes in cost, structures? These are all from our clients perspective. There's a huge need for HR support and other products and technology like self-service. When you think about 10 years ago, we didn't have a mobile app that had much of it on a self-service from an employee basis. And we can save -- we're now saving clients a lot of money and better -- giving them better productivity by saying, hey, if you want to change -- if your employees want to change their address or change their deductions, et cetera, they can do it all on their phone by themselves now. They don't need to call -- go through you and call us, et cetera. For the dynamics of the company on the clients and what they need is for is changed pretty dramatically. And I think that -- certainly, that was our position -- positioning that we started moving toward many years ago to say, hey, you can't just be a small business payroll company, you've got to be an HR and a complete outsourcer to small and midsized businesses, and that certainly is going to have much less of an impact if there's a recessionary time.

嗯，我認為肯定沒有那麼大的槓桿作用。這肯定會產生一些影響，但我認為正如 Efrain 之前在某個問題中提到的那樣，可能更具體地說是關於 PEO（專業雇主組織），工資——尤其是對於小企業來說，工資顯然與新企業的創辦以及由於經濟不景氣而倒閉的企業的損失密切相關。當你的業務佔比達到 50% 或更高時——更多的是人力資源考勤、退休金等服務、非工資性業務，並且不太專注於最小的客戶，那麼就會產生不同的影響。因為在經濟衰退時期或就業低迷時期，你會對人力資源有更大的需求。我該如何留住身邊的人？我該如何裁員？如何更改成本和結構？以上內容均來自客戶的角度。人力資源支援以及其他產品和技術（如自助服務）有著巨大的需求。回想10年前，我們還沒有一款行動應用程式能夠讓員工自助完成很多操作。而且我們還能節省——我們現在正在為客戶節省很多錢，而且更好——通過以下方式提高他們的生產力：嘿，如果你想更改——如果你的員工想更改他們的地址或更改他們的扣款等等，他們現在都可以在自己的手機上完成所有這些操作。他們不需要打電話——透過你打電話給我們，等等。公司對客戶及其需求的關注度發生了相當大的變化。而且我認為——當然，這正是我們的立場——我們多年前就開始朝著這個方向發展，那就是：嘿，你不能只是一家小型企業薪資公司，你必須成為一家人力資源公司，成為中小企業的全面外包商，如果經濟衰退時期發生，這肯定會產生較小的影響。

One of the other thing I would add to Marty, this sort of concretely in terms of what we've seen over the last 3 years, certainly, since the end of fiscal '16. If you look at the financials at the end of fiscal '16, about 60% of our revenue came from payroll, 40% of it was but we would've called HRS. If you look at where we are of the forecast, obviously depends on what model you using, but payroll [balance] in the mid-40s with everything else being 55%. That trend is something that's deliberate, not something that is happening to us. As Marty said, that is the positioning that he and the management team have adopted, and the numbers bear it out. And I do think that we have evolved very clearly to a tech-enabled services company that is much more HR focused than it was 3 years ago.

我還要補充一點，關於馬蒂，具體來說，就我們過去 3 年，特別是自 2016 財年結束以來所看到的情況而言，情況尤其如此。如果你看一下 2016 財年末的財務報表，我們大約 60% 的收入來自工資，其中 40% 是，但我們會稱之為 HRS。如果你看我們目前的預測情況，顯然取決於你使用的模型，但工資[餘額]在 40% 左右，其他所有方面都在 55% 左右。這種趨勢是人為造成的，而不是我們被動接受的。正如馬蒂所說，這是他和管理團隊所採取的策略，而數據也證實了這一點。而且我認為，我們已經非常明顯地發展成為一家以技術為驅動的服務公司，並且比三年前更加重視人力資源。

Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Bergin of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

I wanted to follow-up on real-time and on-demand pay, the offerings roll out that you have. Can you comment on you maybe partnering with those? I'm curious if it's strictly for account deposit or is there a call offering as well. I just want to understand the mechanics of that offering and how it rolls into your model?

我想跟進一下你們推出的即時和按需支付服務。您能否談談與這些公司合作的可能性？我很好奇這是否僅限於帳戶存款，還是也包括看漲期權。我只是想了解這項服務的具體運作機制，以及它如何融入你們的商業模式？

Yes. Bryan, I think we'll announce that probably a little bit later as we get into the last quarter -- calendar quarter of this year or the -- for the pay-on-demand. And because -- I guess, I just want to be sure we are altogether on it before I announce it publicly who the partner is. There certainly is a partner there that we're doing it with. And then on real-time payment, it's the same thing. One of the major banks, and I would wait until we get closer into the first part of the year just to make sure that everything is -- from a competitive standpoint, I want don't want to give out too much too early. But we have partners in both, very solid relationships, everything is, we feel, is in place. I just would like to announce something as we roll it out. One will be in the next October and then a couple of months and then One will be early 2020 real-time payments.

是的。布萊恩，我想我們可能會在稍後，也就是今年最後一個季度（日曆季度）的時候宣佈按需付費的計劃。而且——我想，我只是想在公開宣布合夥人是誰之前，確保我們所有人都達成共識。當然，我們確實有一個合作夥伴在和我們一起做這件事。即時支付也是如此。一家大型銀行，我會等到今年上半年臨近的時候再做決定，以確保一切就緒——從競爭的角度來看，我不想過早地透露太多信息。但我們在這兩個國家都有合作夥伴，關係非常穩固，我們感覺一切都已就緒。我只想在推出過程中宣布一些事情。其中一項將在明年十月推出，然後幾個月後推出，另一項將在 2020 年初推出即時支付。

Okay. That's fair. And then just a follow-up on the insurance services business. Is the pressure from the worker's comp rate there, just the outlook as that abates, just a moderation as you go through the second half comps?

好的。這很合理。然後，再跟進一下保險服務業務的狀況。工傷賠償率的壓力是仍然存在，只是隨著工傷賠償率的下降，前景會有所緩和，下半年的賠償金也會有所減少嗎？

Yes. So it's a little bit lighter in the quarter than we had planned, and so I was a little bit more cautious as we went through the year. Our expectation is that in the back half of the year, it starts to abate a bit. And then by (inaudible) '21 -- fiscal '21, (inaudible) I don't know why I keep saying that, but fiscal '21, it should be [passed].

是的。所以本季比我們計劃的要輕鬆一些，因此我在這一年中也更加謹慎了。我們預計下半年情況會有所緩解。然後到（聽不清楚）'21——21 財年，（聽不清楚）我不知道為什麼我一直這麼說，但是 21 財年，它應該[通過]。

The attachment rate is pretty solid, it's a continuation of the rates that this is -- that it cycles in and out and we're just in that cycle where there's lower workers' comp rates. And sales are okay, in fact, the attachment of the from last year on clients, but the rates are just lower and that's driving that revenue down, and you got to kind wait for it to cycle back around.

附加費率相當穩定，這是費率週期性波動的結果——我們目前正處於工傷賠償費率較低的周期中。事實上，銷售額還可以，去年的客戶仍然保持著之前的水平，但是價格較低，這導致收入下降，你只能等待價格回升。

Our next question comes from the line of Samad Samana of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

I just wanted to ask a question about the new Paychex, so the new Paychex solo offering. And I'm curious how we should think about it in terms the size of the opportunity and what may be to go-to-market model is? Is it more a direct sales organization? Or is it going to be a similar to maybe some of your competitors to have more when inbound type of model for their smallest customers? I'm just curious.

我只是想問一個關於新的 Paychex 的問題，也就是新的 Paychex Solo 服務。我很好奇我們應該如何看待這個機會的規模，以及可能的市場推廣模式是什麼？它更偏向直銷模式嗎？或者，你們會像一些競爭對手一樣，為最小的客戶群提供更多入站行銷模式？我只是好奇而已。

Yes. I think it going to be a little bit of both. They certainly cat be referred and sold by the field sales force. We're also going after it to the web's and the leads and then the direct sales telephonic sales force will be out selling it. We think it's a big market from a sole proprietor standpoint when you -- we found that, that there is a need for that retirement product and of course, the incorporation services. And then if you find that sole proprietor that needs payroll and we can incorporate payroll, a simple retirement product and incorporation. We think we've got a nice market there. It's pretty new. It seems to be off to a good start, but I think we're -- we want to see it for a couple of quarters. But it's got a nice opportunity from that micro -- the sole proprietor provider really marketplace is an offering. But it can be sold from a web lead, from telephonic sales or from the field as well. So we think we've got it covered across field sales forces and we think we've got a nice tight clean product that will have some opportunity there for us.

是的。我認為兩者兼而有之。它們當然可以由一線銷售人員推薦和銷售。我們也會透過網路尋找潛在客戶，然後由直銷電話銷售團隊進行銷售。我們認為從自僱者的角度來看，這是一個很大的市場——我們發現，市場需要這種退休產品，當然也需要公司註冊服務。然後，如果您找到需要薪資的個體經營者，我們可以提供薪資服務、簡單的退休產品和公司註冊服務。我們認為我們在那裡擁有一個不錯的市場。它相當新。看起來開局不錯，但我想我們——我們想再觀察幾個季度。但這其中蘊藏著一個很好的機會——自僱供應商市場其實是一種供給。但它也可以透過網路線索、電話銷售或現場銷售進行銷售。所以我們認為我們已經涵蓋了所有現場銷售團隊，我們認為我們有一個不錯的、乾淨的產品，這將為我們帶來一些機會。

Great. And then maybe a question similarly on the other end of spectrum. The company has invested significantly in it's technology and a lot of the commentary today has been focused on that. I'm curious how you guys think about potentially starting to move upstream or targeting larger customers after -- based on the technology investments that you've made and maybe what the company's view on that is?

偉大的。然後，或許還可以提出一個與此類似的、處於光譜另一端的問題。該公司在技術方面投入巨資，今天很多評論都集中在這一點上。我很好奇，基於你們已經進行的技術投資，以及公司對此的看法，你們是如何考慮未來向上游市場拓展或瞄準更大客戶的？

Yes. I think our view is really that -- still that under 1,000. I mean, we'll some clients over 1,000 employees. We focus -- there's a big market -- when you think about those mid-market, there's 20 or 30 employees to 1,000 is a very big market that we think we're very well positioned for, where certainly, we have been from a service perspective, personal service perspective, but also from now from a technology perspective and the breadth of services. And the need for those HR Services have come down in size so much over the last 3 to 4 years, and I think we've been very well positioned for that. So really not looking to get into that 1,000 plus generally, unless there's a specific need that we can filter. But we think that the best value, best margin and best approach for us is to stay very focused on the kind of 1 to 1,000 and specifically, how we handle under 20 and how we handle 20, 30 to 1,000 is what's really taking off from a technology, API and breadth of offerings that they provide. That's where the best margin is, that's what I think we're very well positioned from our experience and product set to be successful on.

是的。我認為我們的觀點仍然是——仍然低於 1,000。我的意思是，我們有些客戶擁有超過 1000 名員工。我們專注於——這是一個很大的市場——當你想到那些中型市場時，員工人數在 20 或 30 到 1000 人之間的企業是一個非常大的市場，我們認為我們在這個市場中佔據了非常有利的地位，當然，從服務角度來看，從個人服務角度來看，我們一直如此，但從現在來看，從技術角度和服務範圍也是如此。在過去三、四年裡，對這些人力資源服務的需求規模已經大幅下降，我認為我們已經為此做好了非常充分的準備。所以，一般來說，我們並不打算進入1000人以上的範圍，除非有我們可以篩選的特定需求。但我們認為，對我們來說，最好的價值、最好的利潤和最好的方法是，繼續專注於 1 到 1000 這樣的規模，特別是我們如何處理 20 歲以下的客戶，以及我們如何處理 20、30 到 1000 這樣的規模的客戶，這才是真正能夠從他們提供的技術、API 和廣泛的產品中獲得成功的關鍵。那才是利潤最高的地方，我認為憑藉我們的經驗和產品組合，我們在這方面很有優勢，能夠取得成功。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

Just wondering, with regards to Oasis, just how much of that end up contributing to the expenses for this quarter? And how should we think about that fathering in and being rationalized as this year and forwards really into next year?

我想問一下，關於 Oasis 項目，其中有多少最終計入了本季的支出？我們該如何看待父親角色的融入和合理化，並將其延伸到今年甚至明年？

Yes. Mark, a lot of what we called out in the press release is driven by Oasis, in particular the amortization expense and operating expense associated with Oasis. There's a lot of combination going on there, but a combination of the expenses. The expense growth ex Oasis would be somewhere in the 4% to 5% range.

是的。馬克，我們在新聞稿中提到的許多問題都是由 Oasis 驅動的，特別是與 Oasis 相關的攤銷費用和營運費用。那裡有很多組合因素，但主要是各種費用的組合。剔除 Oasis 的支出成長後，預計支出成長率將在 4% 到 5% 之間。

That's very helpful. And then with regards to either what you're seeing from a competitive perspective given -- and then viewing that vis-à-vis all of the technology improvements that you've put together, What are you seeing in the 5 to 20 employee market? How should we think about that? And I'm particularly interested in terms of the new initiatives that you have in terms of being online sales, online implementation. That was something you talked about during the last quarter. What are some of the early results there?

那很有幫助。那麼，從競爭的角度來看，考慮到你所取得的所有技術進步，你對 5 到 20 名員工的市場有何看法？我們該如何看待這個問題？我尤其對您在線上銷售、線上實施方面的新措施感興趣。那是你上個季度談到的事情。初步結果有哪些？

Yes. They were pretty solid, Mark. Particularly, I'd say, 5 to 10, we've focused very much on virtual sales or telephonic sales and -- in driving those leads. We were doing the 1 to 4 leads internally with telephonic sales because of the speed from lead to close. And we had a lot of success as we built the teams up for that last year. We moved the 5 to 9 leads with the majority of those inside the web leads to the inside sales team for the same reason. We're off to a good start, both on lead demand generation, the way we nurture those leads and get them to inside sales and then our handling those leads. That also frees up the field sales forces to get more of the larger customers in that, let's say, under 20. That will free that small business rep team to do that. So we're seeing a good start of the year on that. Competitively, not seeing any big changes there. We're seeing kind of the same players. I know there is one that's talking about that they've been going on market. I haven't really -- we haven't really seen an impact of that, in fact, much at all. I think again, the investment that we made in the technology, the reputation we have for service to that under 20 is really -- bodes very well for us. So I think it's -- we haven't seen a big change in the competitive environment, and we're actually get off to a pretty good start we feel.

是的。馬克，他們相當可靠。特別是，我認為，在 5 到 10 年的時間裡，我們非常注重虛擬銷售或電話銷售，以及推動這些銷售線索。我們之前都是透過電話銷售內部跟進 1 到 4 個潛在客戶，因為這樣從潛在客戶到成交速度更快。去年我們組建團隊的過程中取得了巨大的成功。出於同樣的原因，我們將 5 到 9 個銷售線索（其中大部分是網路銷售線索）移交給了內部銷售團隊。我們在潛在客戶開發、培養這些潛在客戶並將其轉交給內部銷售以及處理這些潛在客戶方面都取得了良好的開端。這樣一來，銷售人員就可以騰出手來爭取更多的大客戶，比如說，20歲以下的客戶。這樣就能讓小型企業代表團隊騰出時間來做這件事了。所以今年開局不錯。從競爭角度來看，似乎不會有任何重大變化。我們看到的幾乎都是同樣的球員。我知道有一家公司正在談論他們即將上市的事情。事實上，我們並沒有真正看到這方面的影響。我認為，我們對科技的投入，以及我們為 20 歲以下族群提供的服務聲譽，對我們來說確實是一個非常好的預兆。所以我覺得——我們還沒有看到競爭環境發生很大的變化，而且我們感覺我們實際上開局相當不錯。

And then with regards to interest rates. Obviously, the Fed's done some things, but rates are actually going as different what they're basically targeting. We take a look at like your incremental effective yield in terms of what you're placing now relative to what the effective yield on the overall portfolio, how does that compare (inaudible) right now?

然後是關於利率的問題。顯然，聯準會採取了一些措施，但利率的實際走勢與他們最初的目標並不一致。我們會看看你現在投資的增量有效收益率，以及你目前投資的收益與整體投資組合的有效收益率相比如何，目前的情況如何（聽不清楚）？

I think you're probably, Mark, somewhere in the -- boy, you asked a great question, which requires layers of explanation, so I will try to summarize it. Unlike other people, 45% to 50% of our portfolio is invested in short-term. So you get an intermediate decline on the short-term-part of the portfolio by whatever the Fed does. So if you're in the 1.5% range, that's what you're getting on the short-term portfolio. And then if you drop, you lose the 25 bps that -- if you have a decline of 25 bps, then you're going to lose immediately 25 bps, I mean, immediately, but 30 days or so. So on the short-term portion of the portfolio that's what happens. On the long-term, it's a little bit trickier because their you're really kind of turning that portfolio over, about 20% of that portfolio turns over. And I think that we called out in the script, it's a little bit above effective yield now, a little bit above 2%. Current investment rates will depend on the -- frankly, on the shape of the yield curve, which in some ways, is anyone's guess. But I would say, now you're 25 to 50 bps lower when you started the year. Now I just read an article yesterday, I'm sure you read the same articles I do, about kind of what the Fed is anticipating doing or not doing, so I caution taking that to the bank. But that's an indicator of where we are. And then the final thing, which is the third part, is we do have opportunities if we see where the yield curve -- the shape of the yield curve to extend duration. Right now, we said duration was about 3.1, we have flexibility to go longer if we want to. So all of those are the puts and takes.

馬克，我想你可能在某個地方——孩子，你問了一個好問題，這個問題需要多層次的解釋，所以我試著總結一下。與其他人不同，我們投資組合中有 45% 到 50% 的資金投資於短期投資。因此，無論聯準會採取什麼行動，都會導致投資組合的短期部分出現中期下降。所以，如果你的投資報酬率在 1.5% 左右，那麼這就是你短期投資組合的報酬率。然後，如果你下跌，你就會損失 25 個基點——如果你下跌 25 個基點，那麼你就會立即損失 25 個基點，我的意思是立即損失，但也要 30 天左右。所以，在投資組合的短期部分，就會發生這種情況。從長遠來看，情況就有點棘手了，因為你實際上是在不斷地輪換投資組合，大約有 20% 的投資組合會輪換。正如我們在劇本中提到的，現在的有效收益率略高於 2%，略高於 2%。目前的投資率將取決於——坦白說，取決於殖利率曲線的形狀，而這在某種程度上是無法預測的。但我想說，現在比年初低了 25 到 50 個基點。我昨天剛讀了一篇文章，我相信你也讀過和我一樣的文章，內容是關於聯準會預計會採取或不會採取的行動，所以我建議不要把文章裡的內容當真。但這顯示了我們所處的位置。最後一點，也就是第三部分，如果我們觀察殖利率曲線的形狀，我們確實有機會延長期限。目前我們預計持續時間約為 3.1 天，如果需要，我們可以靈活延長。所以，以上就是所有的買進和賣出操作。

I was specifically thinking about that 20% that's rolling over that would be incrementally invested relative to the...

我特別指的是那20%的滾動投資，它將相對於…進行逐步投資。

Yes. That's what I said, so you're probably in the 25 to 50 bps lower.

是的。我就是這麼說的，所以你的預期可能會低 25 到 50 個基點。

Relative to the effective yield that we're currently getting?

相對於我們目前所獲得的實質收益率？

Yes. Right. I'm sorry, yes.

是的。正確的。對不起，是的。

Okay. Great. And then with regards to some of these new initiatives that you're rolling out that I'll be demoing today at HR Tech. What sort of contribution do you think they're going to end up having as you start making the plans for '21? And how does that impact the size of the sales force?

好的。偉大的。然後，關於你們即將推出的一些新舉措，我今天將在人力資源科技大會上進行示範。當你開始製定 2021 年的計畫時，你認為他們最終會做出什麼樣的貢獻？那會對銷售團隊的規模產生什麼影響呢？

Yes. I think from a -- I'm glad you're out there. The group is excited to demo everything at HR Tech. I think it's always with us -- with the number of clients we have, it's a small impact to start as we ramp up penetration rates and attachment rates. But I think it does bode well for '21 to get things in now and see how we're growing. From a sales force perspective, I think there could be continued growth there, but I think we're also looking for continued productivity with the sales force. We have a very talented sales leadership team and sales force that is always looking to sell more products. And the way we are approaching, as I mentioned earlier, is the power of those 3000-plus reps selling kind of all of our products, not just the old traditional way where we would sell payroll first and come back. And we're finding much more success, whether it's the small market of the mid-market, kind of again looking for the value that client is looking for overall, the need that they have in selling that completely. So we may have some continued increases in reps as we see opportunity. And there will be also some increase (inaudible) outside, probably from a telephonic sales and field sales perspective.

是的。我想說——我很高興你在那裡。團隊非常興奮地準備在 HR Tech 上展示所有產品。我認為它一直伴隨著我們——以我們目前擁有的客戶數量來看，隨著我們提高滲透率和附加率，它最初的影響很小。但我認為這對 2021 年來說是個好兆頭，現在就開始著手準備，看看我們是如何發展的。從銷售團隊的角度來看，我認為銷售團隊還有持續成長的空間，但我們也希望銷售團隊能維持持續的生產力。我們擁有一支非常有才華的銷售領導團隊和銷售隊伍，他們始終致力於銷售更多產品。正如我之前提到的，我們採取的方式是依靠這 3000 多名銷售代表的力量來銷售我們所有的產品，而不僅僅是像過去那樣先銷售工資單，然後再回過頭來銷售其他產品。我們發現，無論是小市場還是中端市場，我們都取得了更大的成功，這再次表明，我們需要尋找客戶整體上所尋求的價值，以及他們完全銷售產品的需求。因此，如果發現機會，我們可能會繼續增加訓練次數。外部也會有一些成長（聽不清楚），可能是從電話銷售和現場銷售的角度來看。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的傑森庫柏伯格。

Just wanted to follow-up on the commentary around the mid-market sales. You certainly sounded bullish there. Sounds like you think that trend is sustainable. So I just wanted to get your perspective, from kind of a share gain standpoint, if you think that this is something that's going to be continuing for a while. Because it feels like historically, this market is maybe valuable to highlight some more competitive intensity and now it sounds like you're clearly making some strides to overcome that.

我想就中端市場銷售情況的評論做一些補充說明。你剛才的語氣聽起來確實很看好市場。聽起來你認為這種趨勢是可持續的。所以我想從市佔率成長的角度來看，聽聽你的看法，你是否認為這種情況會持續一段時間。因為從歷史角度來看，這個市場或許能凸顯出更激烈的競爭，而現在看來，你們顯然正在努力克服這一點。

Yes. I think a couple of things. One, I think from a share perspective, the market is continuing to grow. So the good news is there is, while I think we certainly are doing well from a competitive close rate when we're in there, the market itself is growing. So the need for HR has continued to come down inside. So that clients that we are looking for different solutions at 100, 200 [or] 300 employees are now looking at those 50 employees or 40 or 30 employees, so meaning full time and attendance. You just see the overtime rule just came out and changed and put more folks on overtime. Clients will be looking for more time and attendance solutions. And when you can now add the technology of wearables and geofencing to say, here, if they're working remotely, they're working from home or other location, the can track all that and they can do it on their watch, all those things make you very viable to even a smaller client then goes to think they can afford that kind of thing. And a smaller client needs it. So the market itself is growing from and HR and a full-service perspective. And then I think the competitive environment really hasn't changed much. I don't -- there hasn't been new competitors. Different competitors have their strengths and weaknesses. And I think right now, between the technology and the service model we have, I think it's very strong. And we do feel very good about the first quarter and I think what we feel like the momentum is that are really for rest of the year and beyond.

是的。我覺得有兩件事。第一，我認為從市場佔有率的角度來看，市場仍在持續成長。所以好消息是，雖然我認為我們在這個市場中透過具有競爭力的成交率取得了不錯的成績，但市場本身也在成長。因此，公司內部對人力資源的需求持續下降。因此，我們之前為 100、200 或 300 名員工尋找不同解決方案的客戶，現在正在考慮 50 名、40 名或 30 名員工，這意味著全職員工和出席率。你看，加班規則剛剛出台並進行了修改，導致更多的人需要加班。客戶將尋求更多考勤解決方案。現在，如果能加入可穿戴設備和地理圍欄技術，比如說，如果他們遠端辦公，在家辦公或在其他地點辦公，他們就可以追蹤所有這些信息，而且他們可以在手錶上完成這些操作，所有這些功能都使即使是規模較小的客戶也能負擔得起這類服務。而規模較小的客戶也需要它。因此，市場本身正從人力資源和全方位服務的角度發展壯大。而且我認為競爭環境其實並沒有太大變化。我不這麼認為——沒有出現新的競爭對手。不同的競爭對手各有優勢和劣勢。我認為就目前而言，憑藉我們擁有的技術和服務模式，我們的實力非常強大。我們對第一季的業績感到非常滿意，而且我認為這種勢頭將持續到今年剩餘時間甚至更遠的未來。

And Efrain, I think it may have been 2 quarters ago, you had suggested Oasis could do $335 million to $375 million revenue in fiscal '20, if I've got that right? Is that still the right range? And then any thoughts on where within that range might be most likely now that you're about 1/3 of the way through the year?

埃弗雷恩，我記得大概是兩個季度前，你曾預測 Oasis 在 2020 財年的收入可能達到 3.35 億美元至 3.75 億美元，如果我沒記錯的話？這個範圍仍然合適嗎？那麼，現在一年已經過去三分之一了，你覺得最有可能的結果會是在這個範圍內的哪個位置呢？

Yes. I don't recall that specific one, but I think we're in that range, Jason. The one thing I would caution is that's total -- there's a few revenue streams in there that are reported not just on the PEO side. But part of the classification change we made at the end of the year was one of those revenue streams, and we had been reporting part of the ASO revenue that Oasis provided. It's not a huge amount, but it's part of that total.

是的。我不記得具體是哪一位了，但我認為我們是在那個範圍內，傑森。我唯一要提醒的是，這是總額——其中包含一些收入來源，這些收入來源並非僅由 PEO 方報告。但我們在年底進行的分類變更的一部分涉及這些收入來源之一，而我們之前一直在報告 Oasis 提供的部分 ASO 收入。雖然數額不大，但它也是總額的一部分。

Okay. And then just one last one than the quick one. Buyback pretty materially this quarter, just wondering what's left on the authorization there? And any implications always the interpret that in the context of what might be out in your M&A pipeline?

好的。最後再來一個，比剛才那個快一點的還好。本季回購規模相當大，想知道授權額度還剩多少？那麼，任何相關的影響都應該結合你併購計畫中可能出現的項目來解讀嗎？

About that's a good one, Jason. That was good. I was tracking it. Yes. No, look shares of cracked up to him that was a good one I would say. Ask the question of the day. Make sure that it cracked up a bit and just because it was clever, I'm sure it cracked up a bit and we're committed to keeping our shift on flat. So we thought it made sense to be a little bit more aggressive. Actually has an implication whatsoever on M&A. We've got still a lot of powder and we've got a lot of opportunities that we're looking at and then finally, I think we're -- we've got about $250 million or so left on the authorization. But to the extent that we needed to get more, we can of course of that conversation with the Board.

傑森，你說得對。那很好。我一直在關注這件事。是的。不，看看他那副樣子，真是笑死我了，我覺得這挺不錯的。提出今日問題。確保它有點滑稽，而且僅僅因為它很巧妙，我相信它確實有點滑稽，我們致力於保持平穩的輪班。所以我們認為採取更積極主動的策略是合理的。實際上對併購沒有任何影響。我們還有很多資金，也有很多機會正在考慮，最後，我認為我們——我們還有大約 2.5 億美元的授權資金。但如果我們需要更多資金，我們當然可以與董事會進行討論。

Our last question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh of Crédit Suisse.

最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

Great. Back to that we can come up Marty, you kind of more tax-enabled HCM kind of the incremental disruption from switching full suite versus payroll. Does that reset the opportunity on the attrition side longer-term? And is there any way to think about what a longer-term target would be with the kind of new revenue contributions?

偉大的。回到這一點，我們可以得出結論，Marty，你有點像是更注重稅務的HCM，從切換到全套解決方案到薪資管理，這種轉變帶來的衝擊是漸進式的。這是否會從長遠角度重新創造減少人員流失的機會？那麼，有沒有辦法考慮一下，在獲得這類新的收入來源的情況下，長期目標應該是什麼呢？

Yes. Good question. I think it does, to some degree, although you still got to think about the mix of the client. So with our mix still definitely toward the low end and of in the growth of that under 20 market, that won't change her to dramatically. But it's a very gives us a much better retention tool when you think about also the mobile app and they're tied to employees. The service or that were selling more and more to the direct employees and how they are using that mobile app really gives us kind of fall fresh start on retention. Back to the degree that a large majority of our clients are still under 20 and that basis still susceptible to startups and turnover in that kind of thing. So can we get retention better overall? I certainly -- we're always looking to break records on it, I don't think it will be huge though given the makeup of the client base.

是的。問得好。我覺得在某種程度上確實如此，儘管你仍然需要考慮客戶群的組成。因此，儘管我們的產品組合仍然明顯偏向低端市場，而 20 歲以下市場也在成長，但這並不會為她帶來太大的改變。但考慮到行動應用程式與員工的關聯性，它為我們提供了一個更好的客戶留存工具。這項服務或我們向直接員工銷售的產品和服務，以及他們使用行動應用程式的方式，確實為我們在員工留存方面帶來了一種全新的開始。回到我們絕大多數客戶仍然不到 20 歲這個事實，這個群體仍然容易受到新創公司和人員更迭的影響。那我們能否提高整體用戶留存率呢？當然——我們一直在努力打破這方面的記錄，但考慮到客戶群的組成，我認為不會有太大的突破。

And Kevin, 1 something on Marty said. So the report client retention, your question really goes to revenue retention and revenue retention has been running in the mid-80s and so I think that adds more of these products of something, you have an opportunity even if a client retention is not materially different to have a bit better revenue retention. And so subtly, we would hope to see more of that.

還有凱文，馬蒂說了些什麼。所以，關於客戶留存率的報告，你的問題實際上指向收入留存率，而收入留存率一直維持在 80 年代中期，所以我認為這增加了更多這類產品，即使客戶留存率沒有實質性變化，你也有機會獲得更好的收入留存率。因此，我們希望看到更多這樣的微妙之處。

That probably gets larger revenue retention versus light? Is that a fair way to think about,, versus history?

與輕型照明相比，輕型照明可能帶來更高的收入留存率？這種思考方式與歷史相比是否公平？

That's correct, yes.

沒錯，是的。

And that was our final question.

這就是我們的最後一個問題。

We think that said, right? At this point we close the call, if you're interested in replaying the webcast at this conference call will be archived for approximately 30 days. Thank you for taking the time to participate in our first quarter press release conference call and for your interest in Paychex. Have a great day.

我們認為這樣說沒錯吧？本次電話會議到此結束。如果您有興趣重播本次電話會議的網路直播，會議錄影將存檔約 30 天。感謝您抽空參加我們第一季的新聞發布電話會議，也感謝您對 Paychex 的關注。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。