沛齊 (PAYX) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Lisa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Paychex Fourth Quarter and Year-end Results Conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫麗莎，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 Paychex 公司歡迎各位參加第四季及全年業績電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Martin Mucci, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給總裁兼執行長馬丁·穆奇先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and thank you for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Earnings Release. Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended May 31, 2020. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations web page, and our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC before the end of July. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 1 month.

謝謝，也感謝各位參加我們對 Paychex 2020 財年第四季及全年收益發布的討論。今天和我一起出席的是我們的財務長埃弗雷恩·裡維拉。今天早上，在市場開盤之前，我們發布了截至 2020 年 5 月 31 日的第四季和財政年度的財務表現。您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網頁查看我們的獲利報告，我們的 10-K 表格將於 7 月底前提交給美國證券交易委員會。本次電話會議將透過網路進行直播，並將在我們的網站上存檔，保留約1個月。

I will start today's call with an update on some of the key metrics in our response to COVID-19 and then review business highlights for the fourth quarter. Efrain will review our financial results for both the fourth quarter and full year and discuss our guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2021, and then we'll open it up for your questions or comments.

今天，我將首先報告我們應對新冠疫情的一些關鍵指標，然後回顧第四季的業務亮點。埃弗雷恩將回顧我們第四季度和全年的財務業績，並討論我們對即將到來的 2021 財年的展望，之後我們將開放提問或評論環節。

In May, we provided you with an update on our business as we were responding to the impacts of COVID-19. At that time, we talked about the positive trends we were seeing in our key metrics, but it was still early. Over the past month, we have continued to experience steady improvements across all of our key metrics we are tracking on a weekly basis. We are seeing a steady increase in paid employees and in the number of worksite employees for our HR outsourcing clients. We have also continued to see an increase in sales leads and sales productivity. One particular bright spot is client retention. Now more than ever, our clients are experiencing their value proposition of Paychex as we help them navigate through this very challenging time. I credit the dedication of our Paychex IT, development, product, marketing and service teams, who have worked tirelessly to ensure a seamless transition to remote working for us while providing the products and service to our -- to support our clients and their CPAs during a time of great concern for their businesses, in fact, many times their business survival.

五月份，我們向大家介紹了我們應對 COVID-19 疫情影響的業務最新情況。當時，我們討論了我們在關鍵指標方面看到的積極趨勢，但這還處於早期階段。過去一個月，我們每週追蹤的所有關鍵指標都持續穩定改善。我們看到，我們人力資源外包客戶的付費員工人數和工作場所員工人數都在穩定成長。我們也持續看到銷售線索和銷售效率的成長。其中一個亮點是客戶留存率。現在，我們的客戶比以往任何時候都更能感受到 Paychex 的價值主張，因為我們幫助他們度過了這段充滿挑戰的時期。我要感謝 Paychex 的 IT、開發、產品、行銷和服務團隊的奉獻精神，他們不懈努力，確保我們能夠順利過渡到遠距辦公，同時為我們的客戶及其註冊會計師提供產品和服務，以支持他們在業務面臨巨大挑戰（事實上，很多時候是業務生存都面臨挑戰）的時期。

When the Paycheck Protection Program was introduced, we were the first in our industry to release an online payroll report to help simplify the filing of the application for the loan. As a client of Paychex, we pre-populated the payroll information that you had ahead of time. We have processed this report over 0.5 million times for our clients and their CPAs to assist them. We also partnered with 3 fintech companies, Biz2Credit, Fundera and Lendio, to provide our clients with direct access to alternative lenders for the PPP loans if they did not want to go through their own banking partner. Over $100 million worth of loans have been processed through these partners by our clients.

當薪資保護計畫推出時，我們是業內第一家發佈線上薪資報告的公司，以幫助簡化貸款申請的提交流程。作為 Paychex 的客戶，我們預先填寫了您事先提供的薪資資訊。我們已經為客戶及其註冊會計師處理了超過 50 萬次此類報告，以協助他們完成相關工作。我們也與 3 家金融科技公司 Biz2Credit、Fundera 和 Lendio 合作，為不想透過自己銀行合作夥伴申請 PPP 貸款的客戶提供直接接觸其他貸款機構的管道。我們的客戶已透過這些合作夥伴辦理了超過 1 億美元的貸款。

On June 5, the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act was signed into law, relaxing the original requirements for the -- for businesses using -- use of the PPP loans while continuing to qualify for loan forgiveness. Shortly after, we launched the PPP loan forgiveness estimator. This tool, which I feel is the most comprehensive in our market, simplifies the complicated process for our clients and again, pre-populates the Paychex client data and provides a very simple way to add non-payroll data to satisfy the new forgiveness requirements.

6 月 5 日，《薪資保護計畫彈性法案》簽署成為法律，放寬了企業使用 PPP 貸款的原始要求，同時繼續符合貸款豁免資格。不久之後，我們推出了 PPP 貸款豁免估算器。我認為這款工具是我們市場上最全面的工具，它簡化了客戶的複雜流程，並且預先填充了 Paychex 客戶數據，提供了一種非常簡單的方法來添加非工資數據，以滿足新的貸款豁免要求。

Our service teams have provided excellent responsiveness to our clients, 7/24, even with much higher call volumes and call complexity, all while maintaining and even improving our client satisfaction and retention performance. In fact, client retention reached a new all-time high.

我們的服務團隊全天候 (7/24) 為客戶提供卓越的回應速度，即使在呼叫量和呼叫複雜度大幅增加的情況下，也能維持甚至提高客戶滿意度和客戶留存率。事實上，顧客留存率達到了歷史新高。

Throughout this uncertain time, we have seen strong performance in multiple areas of the business. SurePayroll has continued to grow as more prospects are looking for intuitive, do-it-yourself solutions. We have seen similar results in our Flex virtual sales efforts. We are also experiencing increased demand for our outsourced HR services, both PEO and ASO, due to the complex demands of the current environment. Our leading suite of customizable solutions allows us to help any business, large or small, simple or complex, do-it-yourself or fully outsourced, with today's challenges.

在這段充滿不確定性的時期，我們看到公司多個業務領域都取得了強勁的業績。隨著越來越多的潛在客戶尋求直覺的自助式解決方案，SurePayroll 的業務持續成長。我們在 Flex 虛擬銷售方面也看到了類似的結果。由於當前環境的複雜性，我們也感受到外包人力資源服務（包括 PEO 和 ASO）的需求不斷增長。我們領先的可客製化解決方案套件可以幫助任何企業，無論規模大小、簡單複雜、自主營運或完全外包，應對當今的挑戰。

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a challenge to our business. However, this challenge confirmed that the investments we have made in the recent past were the right investments. COVID-19 accelerated many workplace trends, and we have had the right solutions in place to help our clients adapt to their new, unexpected environment. Our 5-star rated mobile app provides clients and their employees with access to solutions from anywhere on any type of device. This, along with our broad set of human capital management solutions and our comprehensive self-service capabilities, have allowed our clients to effectively manage a remote workforce and maintain productivity.

新冠疫情為我們的業務帶來了挑戰。然而，這項挑戰證實了我們近期進行的投資是正確的投資。COVID-19 加速了許多職場趨勢，我們已經制定了合適的解決方案，幫助客戶適應這種新的、意想不到的環境。我們這款五星級行動應用程式讓客戶及其員工隨時隨地透過任何類型的裝置存取解決方案。憑藉這些優勢，以及我們廣泛的人力資本管理解決方案和全面的自助服務能力，我們的客戶能夠有效地管理遠端員工隊伍並保持生產力。

Maintaining employee engagement has been critical for our clients during this time, especially as communications are rarely face-to-face. Whether a client needs to capture and track employee issues and requests or simply check in with their people, Paychex makes it simple to stay connected and maintain a productive and engaged workforce. This can occur through our HR conversations tool, or HR Connect, a tool that recently -- we recently released that allows employees to submit their questions, requests and incidents directly to HR through an easy-to-use workflow.

在此期間，保持員工敬業度對我們的客戶至關重要，尤其是在很少進行面對面溝通的情況下。無論客戶是需要記錄和追蹤員工問題和請求，還是只是想與員工溝通，Paychex 都能讓保持聯繫、維持高效敬業的員工隊伍變得簡單。這可以透過我們的人力資源對話工具或 HR Connect 來實現，該工具是我們最近發布的，允許員工透過易於使用的工作流程直接向人力資源部門提交他們的問題、請求和事件。

We have also seen an increase in the use of Paychex Learning, an online learning platform which allows clients to retain employees by providing them with various training and professional development options, even while not in an office environment. Our comprehensive suite of payroll solutions offers flexible payment options to help address employees' needs or time-sensitive situations. We provide clients the ability to pay employees on demand for wages earned prior to payday and make real-time payments in minutes for time-sensitive or emergency situations.

我們也看到 Paychex Learning 的使用量增加，這是一個線上學習平台，即使員工不在辦公室環境中，客戶也可以透過提供各種培訓和職涯發展選擇來留住員工。我們全面的薪資解決方案提供彈性的支付方式，以協助滿足員工的需求或應對有時效性的情況。我們為客戶提供按需支付員工在發薪日之前已賺取工資的功能，並可在時間緊迫或緊急情況下進行幾分鐘內的即時支付。

We continually enhance our data analytics and live report functionality. Faced with a rapidly changing business environment and market uncertainty, providing clients with access to clear, accurate information is critical for them to make decisions about future -- about the future for their businesses. Recent updates to our analytics suite provide additional insights on labor costs and workers' compensation information, workplace illness and injury trends and other HR details such as employee record updates and performance feedback. Additional new enhancements are geared toward improved organizational collaboration and streamlining processes through digital solutions, such as allowing for electronic workflow in e-signatures on direct deposit and W-4 forms, simplifying the process of adding new workers. We offer many new self-service capabilities for our clients and employees that have streamlined the process for both the employees and the client.

我們不斷改進數據分析和即時報告功能。面對瞬息萬變的商業環境和市場的不確定性，為客戶提供清晰、準確的資訊至關重要，這關係到他們能否對未來——也就是他們企業的未來——做出決策。我們分析套件的最新更新提供了有關勞動力成本和工傷賠償資訊、工作場所疾病和傷害趨勢以及其他人力資源細節（例如員工記錄更新和績效反饋）的更多見解。其他新增功能旨在透過數位化解決方案改善組織協作和簡化流程，例如允許在直接存款和 W-4 表格上使用電子簽名進行電子工作流程，簡化新增員工的流程。我們為客戶和員工提供了許多新的自助服務功能，簡化了員工和客戶的流程。

We have been a valuable business partner to our clients through this time, providing them with information to navigate legislation, helping them access federal loans and managing a remote workforce. Our extensive number of webinars have exceeded all records of participation with over 100,000 clients and CPAs registering for multiple sessions. While our solutions were invaluable to clients in adapting to the new environment of a remote workforce, they are also key to helping businesses as they begin to reopen and get back to business. By using digital solutions, it helps clients integrate more contactless processes to reduce infection risk at their business.

在此期間，我們一直是客戶的重要商業夥伴，為他們提供了解法律法規的信息，幫助他們獲得聯邦貸款，並管理遠距辦公團隊。我們舉辦的網路研討會數量眾多，參與人數已超過以往所有記錄，超過 10 萬名客戶和註冊會計師註冊參加了多場研討會。我們的解決方案對於客戶適應遠距辦公的新環境非常有價值，同時對於幫助企業重新開業和恢復業務也至關重要。透過使用數位化解決方案，它可以幫助客戶整合更多非接觸式流程，從而降低企業中的感染風險。

In regards to our Paychex family, we have an ongoing commitment to our employees to ensure their safety. At this time, we still have over 95% of our workforce continuing to work remotely, and it has been going well. Given this success, we are accelerating some of our strategies to leverage a more distributed workforce. We are implementing plans to reduce our physical location footprint, among other expense savings initiatives. These plans have recently been announced to our employees, and we are moving forward with these initiatives.

對於我們 Paychex 大家庭的成員，我們始終致力於保障員工的安全。目前，我們仍有超過 95% 的員工繼續遠距辦公，進展順利。鑑於這一成功，我們正在加快實施一些策略，以充分利用更加分散的員工隊伍。我們正在實施一系列計劃，包括減少實體辦公室的佔地面積以及其他節省成本的措施。這些計劃已於近期向員工公佈，我們正在推動這些措施。

As we begin fiscal 2021, we see several reasons for optimism. Our employees remain engaged and have continued to go above and beyond, reacting in real time to continue to provide excellent service to our clients. Our record retention and high client satisfaction Net Promoter Scores and client testimonials highlight the value we provide our clients and their advisers as we help them navigate this challenging time. We continue to return capital to our shareholders, and our leading indicators continue to show signs of steady progress. While much uncertainty remains as businesses or states pause or delay reopening as a result of COVID-19, we are confident that the value of our offerings is more relevant to our clients than it has ever been, and we will continue to provide innovative products and services through online offerings or our well-trained and experienced service providers as we get through this together.

2021財年伊始，我們看到了幾個樂觀的理由。我們的員工始終保持積極敬業的態度，不斷超越自我，即時做出反應，持續為客戶提供優質服務。我們保持著極高的客戶留存率，客戶滿意度淨推薦值 (NPS) 和客戶評價都凸顯了我們為客戶及其顧問提供的價值，幫助他們度過這段充滿挑戰的時期。我們持續向股東返還資本，各項領先指標也持續顯示穩定發展的跡象。儘管由於 COVID-19 疫情的影響，企業或各州暫停或推遲重新開放仍存在諸多不確定性，但我們相信，我們產品和服務的價值比以往任何時候都更加貼近客戶，我們將繼續透過線上服務或我們訓練有素、經驗豐富的服務供應商提供創新產品和服務，與大家攜手共渡難關。

I will now turn the call over to Efrain Rivera to review our financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year. Efrain?

現在我將把電話交給埃弗雷恩·裡維拉，讓他回顧我們第四季和本財年的財務表現。埃弗雷恩？

Thank you, Marty, and good morning to everyone. I'll remind you that today's conference contains the customary forward-looking statements that refer to future events and such -- as such involve risks. Please refer to the earnings release for more disclosure on these statements and related factors. In addition, I'll periodically refer to some non-GAAP measures, such as EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share, et cetera. Please refer to the press release and investor presentation for a discussion of these measures and a reconciliation of the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2020 to the related GAAP measures.

謝謝你，馬蒂，大家早安。我在此提醒各位，今天的會議包含一些慣常的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及未來事件等等——因此存在風險。有關這些聲明及相關因素的更多披露信息，請參閱盈利報告。此外，我也會定期參考一些非GAAP指標，例如EBITDA、調整後淨收入、調整後稀釋每股盈餘等。有關這些措施的討論以及 2020 財年第四季和全年與相關 GAAP 指標的調整，請參閱新聞稿和投資者簡報。

Let me start by providing some of the key points for the quarter. Our fourth quarter results reflected the impact of conditions resulting from COVID-19. I'll provide a summary of our results and then discuss our full year fiscal 2020 results. For the fourth quarter, let's start there, total revenue, as you saw, decreased 7% to $915 million, largely due to volume declines impacting revenue across our HCM solutions. Total service revenue decreased 7% for the fourth quarter to $890 million. Within service revenue, Management Solutions revenue declined 6% to $662 million and PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue declined 11% to $228 million. Interest on funds held for clients increased 14% for the fourth quarter to $25 million. Higher realized gains more than offset lower average investment balances and lower average interest rates earned, and this was part of the portfolio repositioning we discussed on an earlier call. Average balances for interest on funds held for clients declined 8% during the fourth quarter, primarily due to the impact of lower checks per client resulting from COVID.

首先，我來介紹一下本季的一些要點。我們的第四季業績反映了新冠肺炎疫情帶來的影響。我將先提供一份業績概要，然後再討論我們2020財年全年業績。第四季度，我們先從這裡開始。正如您所看到的，總收入下降了 7%，至 9.15 億美元，這主要是由於銷售下降影響了我們 HCM 解決方案的收入。第四季總服務收入下降7%至8.9億美元。在服務收入方面，管理解決方案收入下降 6% 至 6.62 億美元，PEO 和保險解決方案收入下降 11% 至 2.28 億美元。第四季度，為客戶持有的資金利息增加了 14%，達到 2,500 萬美元。更高的實際收益足以彌補較低的平均投資餘額和較低的平均收益率，這是我們在先前的電話會議中討論的投資組合重新定位的一部分。第四季度，客戶資金利息平均餘額下降了 8%，主要原因是受新冠疫情影響，每位客戶的支票數量減少。

Expenses decreased 8% to $615 million. The decline was largely impacted by reductions in discretionary spending as a result of company-wide expense control. Op income decreased 5% to $300 million and reflected an operating margin of 32.7%. EBITDA decreased 5% to $351 million with an EBITDA margin of 38.4%. Other expense net for the fourth quarter includes interest on our long-term borrowings, partially offset by corporate investment income, which was impacted, as you all know, by lower interest rates.

支出減少了 8%，至 6.15 億美元。此次下滑主要是因為公司全面控製成本導致可自由支配支出減少所致。營業收入下降 5% 至 3 億美元，營業利益率為 32.7%。EBITDA 下降 5% 至 3.51 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 38.4%。第四季度的其他淨支出包括長期借款利息，部分被企業投資收益所抵消，而企業投資收益正如大家所知，受到了利率下降的影響。

Our effective income tax rate was 24.3% for the fourth quarter compared to 25.8% for the same period last year. Net income decreased 4% to $221 million and adjusted net income decreased 3% to $221 million for the fourth quarter. Diluted earnings per share decreased 5% to $0.61 for the fourth quarter and adjusted diluted earnings per share decreased 3% again, at $0.61.

第四季我們的實際所得稅率為 24.3%，而去年同期為 25.8%。第四季淨利下降 4% 至 2.21 億美元，調整後淨利下降 3% 至 2.21 億美元。第四季稀釋後每股收益下降 5% 至 0.61 美元，調整後稀釋後每股收益再次下降 3% 至 0.61 美元。

Let's talk about year-to-date results. Through the first 9 months, results were solid. Our full year growth, though, was tempered as a result of COVID in Q4, but the year still reflected solid progress. Total revenue increased 7% to $4 billion. Service revenue increased 7%, again, to $4 billion, with Management Solutions growth of 3% to $3 billion and PEO and Insurance Solutions growth of 22% to $991 million. Management Solutions benefited from higher revenue per client. PEO and Insurance Solutions benefited from higher revenue per client -- I'm sorry, from the full year of Oasis results, while Insurance Solutions remained challenged by lower workers' comp premiums. Interest on funds held for clients increased 8% to $87 million, driven by higher realized gains, partially offset by lower average investment balances and lower average interest rates. Op income increased 7% to $1.5 billion. Operating margin was at 36.1% comparable to the prior year. Net income and diluted earnings per share each increased 6% to $1.1 billion and $3.04 per share, respectively. Adjusted net income increased 5% to $1.1 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 6%, again, to $3 per share.

我們來談談今年迄今的業績。前9個月的業績表現穩健。不過，由於第四季新冠疫情的影響，我們的全年成長有所放緩，但全年仍取得了穩健的進展。總營收成長7%，達到40億美元。服務收入再次成長 7%，達到 40 億美元，其中管理解決方案成長 3%，達到 30 億美元，PEO 和保險解決方案成長 22%，達到 9.91 億美元。管理解決方案部門受益於每位客戶更高的收入。PEO 和保險解決方案受益於每位客戶更高的收入——抱歉，這是 Oasis 全年業績帶來的收入增長——而保險解決方案仍然面臨較低的工傷賠償保險費的挑戰。受已實現收益增加的推動，客戶資金利息增加 8% 至 8,700 萬美元，但部分被平均投資餘額和平均利率的下降所抵消。營業收入成長7%，達到15億美元。營業利益率為36.1%，與前一年持平。淨利潤和稀釋後每股收益分別成長 6% 至 11 億美元和每股 3.04 美元。經調整後的淨收入成長 5% 至 11 億美元，經調整後的稀釋每股盈餘再次成長 6% 至每股 3 美元。

Let's talk about investments and income. Our goal, as you know, is to protect principal and optimize liquidity. We continue to invest in high credit quality securities. Our long-term portfolio has an average yield of 2.1%; average duration is currently 2.9 years. So we're a little bit shorter on the curve. Our combined portfolios have earned an average rate of return of 1.5% and 1.8% for the fourth quarter and fiscal year, respectively. These are down from 2.1% and 1.9% for the respective periods last year. As you realize, the Fed has cut interest rates a number of times this year.

我們來談談投資和收入。如您所知，我們的目標是保護本金並優化流動性。我們將繼續投資於高信用等級的證券。我們的長期投資組合平均報酬率為 2.1%；平均久期目前為 2.9 年。所以我們在這個曲線上稍微短一點。我們的綜合投資組合在第四季和本財年分別獲得了平均1.5%和1.8%的回報率。這兩個數字分別低於去年同期的 2.1% 和 1.9%。正如你所了解的，聯準會今年已經多次降息。

Let's talk about our financial position, which we're particularly proud of. It remains strong with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of over $1 billion as of May 31, 2020, and it really is -- highlights the strength of the company that we achieved that result during a very challenging time in -- economic time for both us and our clients. Funds held for clients as of May 31 were $3.4 billion compared to $3.8 billion as of May 31, 2019. Funds held for clients varied widely on a day-to-day basis and averaged $3.8 billion for the fourth quarter and $3.9 billion for the fiscal year. Our total available for sale investments, including corporate investments and funds held for clients, reflected net unrealized gains of $100 million as of the end of May 31, 2020. This compares with $20 million as of May 31, 2019. The increase in net gain position obviously resulted from declines in interest rates.

讓我們來談談我們引以為傲的財務狀況。截至 2020 年 5 月 31 日，公司現金、受限現金和總企業投資超過 10 億美元，實力依然強勁。在對我們和我們的客戶而言都極具挑戰性的經濟時期，我們取得了這樣的成績，這充分體現了公司的實力。截至 5 月 31 日，為客戶持有的資金為 34 億美元，而截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日為 38 億美元。為客戶持有的資金每日波動很大，第四季平均為 38 億美元，本財年平均為 39 億美元。截至 2020 年 5 月 31 日，我們可供出售的投資總額（包括公司投資和為客戶持有的基金）反映了 1 億美元的未實現淨收益。截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日，這一數字為 2,000 萬美元。淨收益增加顯然是由於利率下降造成的。

Total stockholders' equity was $2.8 billion as of the end of May 31, 2020, reflecting $889 million in dividends paid and $172 million of shares repurchased during fiscal 2020. Our return on equity for the past 12 years remained strong at 41%. Cash flows from operations were also strong. We reached $1.4 billion for the fiscal year. That's an increase of 13% from the same period last year. The increase was driven by higher net income, amortization of intangible assets and fluctuations in net working capital. So we ended the quarter in a very, very strong operating position, cash and cash flow.

截至 2020 年 5 月 31 日，股東權益總額為 28 億美元，其中 2020 財年支付的股利為 8.89 億美元，回購的股票為 1.72 億美元。過去 12 年，我們的股本回報率一直保持在 41% 的強勁水平。經營活動產生的現金流也十分強勁。本財年我們實現了14億美元的營收。與去年同期相比成長了13%。成長主要受淨收入增加、無形資產攤銷和淨營運資本波動的影響。因此，本季末我們的營運狀況、現金和現金流都非常強勁。

Let's talk about 2021. The outlook that I'm about to present reflects our current thinking regarding the speed and timing of the economic recovery. I don't need to remind you of how volatile the situation is, and we'll talk about this in terms of, really, the first half and the second half of the year. We expect the impacts on the first half of the year will be significant, and then there will be improving sequential -- we will start improving sequentially, and recovery is going to occur in the second half of the year, primarily in the fourth quarter. This outlook also includes various expense control measures we have implemented, which I'll discuss shortly, including a onetime charge that we're going to take in the first half of the year. I'll come to that and discuss that more fully in a second.

我們來聊聊2021年吧。我即將提出的展望反映了我們目前對經濟復甦的速度和時機的看法。我無需提醒您當前局勢有多動盪，我們將分別從今年上半年和下半年的角度來討論這個問題。我們預計上半年將受到重大影響，然後情況將逐步改善——我們將開始逐步改善，復甦將在下半年發生，主要在第四季度。這項展望還包括我們實施的各種費用控制措施，我稍後會詳細介紹，其中包括我們將在今年上半年收取的一次性費用。我稍後會詳細討論這個問題。

Our outlook is as follows: Management Solutions revenue is anticipated to decline in the range of 1% to 4%. PEO and insurance services (sic) [Insurance Solutions] revenue is anticipated currently to decline in a range of 2% to 7%. Interest on funds held for clients is anticipated to be between $55 million and $65 million. Total revenue is anticipated to decline in the range of 2% to 5%. Adjusted operating income as a percentage of total revenue is anticipated to be between 34% and 35%, which excludes, as I mentioned earlier, the impact of onetime costs, which I will discuss in a moment. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year 2021 is expected to be between 39% and 40%. Other expense net is anticipated to be in the range of $30 million to $35 million. And the effective income tax rate for fiscal 2021 is expected to be in the range of 24.5% to 25%. Just remind you, too, that we don't include in any of these projections what we expect benefit from stock comp expense. We adjust that out. So that could change depending on what benefit we get during the year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to decline in the range of 6% to 10%.

我們的展望如下：管理解決方案收入預計將下降 1% 至 4%。PEO 和保險服務（原文如此）[保險解決方案] 的收入預計目前將下降 2% 至 7%。預計為客戶持有的資金利息將在 5,500 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元之間。預計總收入將下降 2% 至 5%。調整後的營業收入佔總收入的百分比預計在 34% 到 35% 之間，正如我之前提到的，這不包括一次性成本的影響，我稍後會討論這一點。預計 2021 年全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將在 39% 至 40% 之間。預計其他淨支出將在 3,000 萬美元至 3,500 萬美元之間。預計 2021 財年的實際所得稅率將在 24.5% 至 25% 之間。另外也要提醒您，我們所有的預測都沒有包含股票薪酬支出所帶來的預期報酬。我們會進行調整。所以這可能會根據我們一年中獲得的福利而改變。經調整後的稀釋每股盈餘預計將下降 6% 至 10%。

Now as Marty mentioned earlier, given what we've experienced over the last several months, we are accelerating a range of cost savings initiatives. These include head count optimization in addition to reduced discretionary spend. In addition, we're planning an acceleration of our long-term plan to reduce our geographic footprint, and this is the majority of the charge that I'm about to describe. We anticipate recognizing onetime costs in the neighborhood of $40 million, most of which will be incurred during the first quarter. Our guidance for adjusted operating margin, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted diluted EPS, which I'll remind you again are non-GAAP measures, excludes these onetime costs. Again, $40 million, we expect it to be primarily in the first quarter, and it is primarily directed at geographic optimization, a plan that we had in place and that we've decided to accelerate given current conditions.

正如馬蒂之前提到的，鑑於我們過去幾個月所經歷的情況，我們正在加快實施一系列成本節約計劃。這些措施包括優化人員配置以及減少可自由支配支出。此外，我們正在計劃加快推進長期計劃，以縮小我們的地理覆蓋範圍，而這正是我接下來要描述的重點。我們預計將確認約 4000 萬美元的一次性成本，其中大部分將在第一季發生。我們對調整後營業利潤率、調整後 EBITDA 利潤率和調整後攤薄每股收益的預期（我再次提醒各位，這些都是非 GAAP 指標）不包括這些一次性成本。再次強調，這筆 4000 萬美元的資金，我們預計主要將在第一季度到位，主要用於地域優化，這是我們之前製定的計劃，鑑於目前的形勢，我們決定加快實施。

Now I've given you full year; let me give you some color on the gating. One of the things that I would say is we will post on the website our presentation. You can take a look at it. It will provide some detail on this also. So hopefully, that will be clear once you've read it. But now let me just describe what we're anticipating.

現在我已經給了你們一整年的時間；讓我來給你們詳細介紹一下大門的情況。我想說的是，我們會把簡報發佈在網站上。你可以看看。它還會提供這方面的詳細資訊。希望你讀完之後就能明白了。現在讓我來描述一下我們所期待的情況。

We currently expect revenue to be the most impacted during the first quarter of fiscal '21 with each quarter improving sequentially. We view fiscal 2021 in terms of first half and second half of the year. So let me talk about the first half. We anticipate that in the first half, Management Solutions revenue will be down mid- to upper single digits and PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue will be down in the high single digits to low double digits. Adjusted operating margins, excluding the onetime costs that I just mentioned, are anticipated to be approximately 32%.

我們目前預計，2021財年第一季的營收將受到最大影響，之後每季都會逐步改善。我們將 2021 財年分為上半年和下半年進行評估。那麼，讓我來談談前半部。我們預計上半年管理解決方案收入將下降個位數中高段，PEO 和保險解決方案收入將下降個位數高段至兩位數低段。經調整後的營業利潤率（不包括我剛才提到的一次性成本）預計約為 32%。

Now specifically Q1, I would say this, the greatest impact is going to be felt in that quarter. And total revenue is anticipated to be down high single to low double-digit range in Q1 and operating margin is anticipated to be approximately 30%. So be sure to bake that into the model.

具體到第一季度，我想說，最大的影響將在該季度顯現。預計第一季總收入將下降個位數至兩位數，營業利潤率預計約 30%。所以一定要把這點考慮進模型裡。

In the back half of the year, we anticipate greater improvement with much of the recovery occurring in the fourth quarter. So we see it accelerating into the fourth quarter. And in the fourth quarter, it will look much more like a normal quarter pre-COVID. Management Solutions and PEO and Insurance Solutions revenues are expected to grow in the low single digits. And when I say low single digits, I mean low. So it -- the combination of Q3 and Q4, because Q3 is a big revenue quarter, and we still don't anticipate full recovery in Q3 with more of it occurring in Q4 combines to create low single-digit revenue growth. Adjusted operating margins are anticipated to be approximately 37%, reflecting both higher seasonal margins in the third quarter and the improvement that we expect to see in revenue. So I'm talking now about the second half of the year, where we typically see higher margins. Adjusted earnings per share, again, in the second half are expected to be flat to down low single digits.

我們預計下半年情況將有更大改善，大部分復甦將在第四季發生。因此，我們看到這種情況在第四季加速發展。而到了第四季度，情況將更接近新冠疫情前的正常季度。管理解決方案、PEO 和保險解決方案的收入預計將以較低的個位數成長。我說的個位數低，是指真的非常低。因此，由於第三季是營收大季度，而我們預計第三季不會完全復甦，第四季可能會出現更多復甦跡象，所以第三季和第四季的合併導致營收成長僅為個位數。經調整後的營業利潤率預計約為 37%，這不僅反映了第三季較高的季節性利潤率，也反映了我們預期收入的改善。我現在談的是下半年，通常下半年的利潤率會更高。預計下半年調整後每股盈餘將再次持平或下降個位數。

So let me refer you back to the investor slide, so you can think through all of that gating. And with that, I will turn it back over to Marty.

所以，我建議你回顧一下投資人幻燈片，以便你仔細考慮所有這些門檻。好了，現在我把麥克風交還給馬蒂。

Thank you, Efrain. And Lisa, we'll now open up for questions, please.

謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。麗莎，現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal 的線路。

This is Damian on for Ramsey. So good to see some of the improvement in trends here sequentially. I guess the big question here for me is on 2021, just how you'd characterize the conservatism in your guidance. In other words, are you assuming some sort of improvement in the key metrics throughout the year? Or to what extent is it sort of a bottoming out of trends and then you're growing over them? Just some color there, I think, would be really helpful.

這是達米安替補拉姆齊上場。很高興看到這裡的一些趨勢逐一改善。對我來說，這裡最大的問題是，關於 2021 年，您會如何描述您在指導方針中體現的保守主義。換句話說，您是否預期全年關鍵指標會有所改善？或者說，這在多大程度上是趨勢觸底反彈，然後你開始超越這些趨勢而發展？我覺得，如果那裡加點顏色，會很有幫助。

Yes. So that's a fair question. Q1, obviously, as I just mentioned, we see the most impact. But if I think about where we have been over the last 7 or 8 years, we've seen sequential improvement -- sorry, several years, several weeks, it's felt like years sometimes. We have sequential -- we've seen sequential improvement week by week. That rate of acceleration is what's a little bit tough to call. But certainly, the bottom is in Q1, and then we expect it to be better, and we expect that to continue through the remainder of the year. I would say relative to what we expected to see 3, 4 weeks ago as we started the year, we're doing better. So there's lots of -- there are a lot of signs that point that we're seeing a recovery occurring. Now how sustained and how quickly that will occur, we'll see as we go through the quarter. So that's the commentary. We certainly think in the back half of the year, you're going to see a substantial recovery.

是的。這確實是個好問題。顯然，正如我剛才提到的，Q1 的影響最大。但如果我回顧過去 7 或 8 年我們所處的位置，我們看到了持續的進步——抱歉，是幾年，幾週，有時感覺像幾年那麼長。我們看到了逐週的進步。這種加速度的具體數值很難準確描述。但可以肯定的是，第一季已經觸底，之後我們預計情況會好轉，並且預計這種好轉趨勢會持續到今年年底。與 3、4 週前年初我們預期的情況相比，我們現在的情況要好得多。所以有很多跡象表明，我們正在看到經濟復甦。至於這種趨勢能持續多久、發展速度如何，我們將在本季中拭目以待。以上就是評論內容。我們堅信，下半年經濟將會大幅復甦。

Yes. That makes sense. And maybe if I were to just zoom out here then, and maybe this is a question for Marty. But can you maybe just give some updated thoughts about the long-term composition of the company's business lines here? Obviously, this pandemic has changed a lot for a lot of people. But are you looking more seriously to move into adjacent areas or businesses? In 5 years, does the Paychex model look similar to how it is today? Or do you think it changes a little bit?

是的。這很有道理。也許如果我把視角拉遠一些，也許這個問題應該問馬蒂。您能否就公司業務線的長期構成提供一些最新的看法？顯然，這場疫情為許多人帶來了很大的改變。但您是否認真考慮過進駐鄰近地區或企業？五年後，Paychex 的商業模式會和今天相似嗎？還是你覺得會稍微有點改變？

Well, I think definitely, we're -- we've continued to move more toward being an HR company. And HR, I think many times, people still think of us as small business payroll. But as you can see, the way the revenues have grown, we've become more and more of an HR services company for small and midsized businesses. And I think that will continue. I think when you see -- we will evolve as -- and we have continued to evolve in the way that, that is needed. So HR used to be about kind of HR administration, then it broadened to become more about kind of pushing to the front end of recruiting and staffing of your firm. And now it will become, I think -- even it may become, at least in the short term, for how do you bring people back to a physical location. It certainly has become more about how do you handle remote. I think the investments we've made in online in our SaaS products and mobility in all of our designs has been very helpful because, as I mentioned, you'll still see us as, I think, as an HR company. But I guess what I'm saying is it becomes much more all encompassing, and that definition of HR gets broader and broader. And I think we've been able to capture on that, everything from staffing and recruiting to paperless administration, from start to finish, of course, retirement and insurances, health and workers' comp. And then you'll also see the analytics now playing a bigger role in HR as well in helping people make decisions. Businesses who can't afford that kind of stuff can come with us to get the data analytics to help them make decisions and so forth.

嗯，我認為我們肯定——我們已經繼續朝著成為人力資源公司的方向發展。而且，我認為很多時候，人們仍然把人力資源部門看成是小企業的工資部門。但正如你所看到的，隨著收入的成長，我們越來越成為一家為中小企業提供人力資源服務的公司。我認為這種情況還會持續下去。我認為，當你看到——我們會不斷發展——而且我們一直在以必要的方式不斷發展。所以，人力資源部門過去主要負責人力資源管理工作，後來逐漸擴展到推動公司招募和人員配置的前端工作。現在，我認為，甚至可能至少在短期內，會如何讓人們回到實體場所？現在，如何進行遠距辦公無疑變得更加重要了。我認為我們在 SaaS 產品線上領域和所有設計中的移動性方面的投資非常有幫助，因為正如我所提到的，你仍然會把我們視為人力資源公司。但我想說的是，它變得越來越包羅萬象，人力資源的定義也越來越廣泛。我認為我們已經能夠做到這一點，從人員配備和招聘到無紙化管理，從頭到尾，當然還有退休和保險、健康和工傷賠償。然後你也會看到，分析技術在人力資源領域也發揮越來越重要的作用，幫助人們做出決策。那些負擔不起這類服務的企業可以和我們一起進行數據分析，以幫助他們做出決策等等。

And I think an awful lot of it is -- it also has turned about training and development of employees. And now with our Learning Management System that we offer, that was perfect timing to be able to train new employees and develop employees from a remote location, which has been really a critical need for our clients. So I think in 5 years, Paychex should be known very much as an HR company that delivers HR support of -- includes everything from staffing, recruiting, payroll, to retirement, insurances, you name it, but it's constantly evolving what that is defined as. And I think our technology has positioned us extremely well, now and toward the future.

而且我認為很大程度是因為——這也改變了員工的培訓和發展方式。現在，憑藉我們提供的學習管理系統，我們能夠遠距培訓新員工和發展現有員工，這正是我們客戶真正迫切需要的。所以我認為，5年後，Paychex應該會成為一家廣為人知的HR公司，提供HR支援服務——包括人員配備、招聘、薪資、退休、保險等等，但其定義也在不斷發展變化。我認為我們的技術讓我們在現在和未來都處於非常有利的地位。

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Could you expand upon the performance of the key performance indicators in the fourth quarter? I think Marty, you talked on the business update call about a number of businesses being on hiatus, suspending their processing. I think as of May 19, checks per payroll were down double digits. What are you seeing in particular on this KPI? And then my follow-up really relates to new bookings trends in the fourth quarter and how the sales force is operating, still mostly remote, some in-person meetings and so forth.

能否詳細介紹一下第四季關鍵績效指標的表現？我想馬蒂，你在業務更新電話會議上談到許多企業暫停運營，停止業務處理。我認為截至 5 月 19 日，每筆薪資的支票發放數量下降了兩位數。您在這個KPI指標上具體看到了哪些面向？然後我的後續問題主要涉及第四季度的新預訂趨勢以及銷售團隊的運作方式，目前仍以遠距辦公為主，也有一些面對面的會議等等。

Sure. David, I'll start with -- on the key metrics. Yes, the -- basically, what we refer to as suspended businesses, so they had not gone out of business, but they had suspended processing, and that is down less than half of where we were at the peak. And continues to come down -- has continued to come down each -- really each week. So we're seeing businesses come back. Now I will say that they're not always coming back with full employment that they had before. So if they had 20 or 30 employees, they might have 15 or 20 now. And you can expect, obviously, that would happen as businesses are at 50% capacity, restaurants and places like that. But we are seeing -- we've seen more than half of the suspended businesses come back, which we think is very good, actually relatively quickly. And we're seeing the checks improve and the worksite employees improve as well in the PEO and ASO offerings. So that change in base basically has happened quite quickly as well. So they're bringing back employees faster than we had expected, and hopefully, that will continue. But the trend has certainly been continuous improvement.

當然。大衛，我先從關鍵指標說起。是的，基本上，我們所說的暫停營業的企業，並沒有倒閉，只是暫停了業務處理，而這比我們高峰時期的水平下降了不到一半。而且持續下降——實際上每週都在下降。所以我們看到企業正在復甦。現在我要說的是，他們並非總是能恢復到以前的全部就業水準。所以如果他們之前有 20 或 30 名員工，現在可能只有 15 或 20 名了。很顯然，當企業以 50% 的產能運作時，這種情況就會發生，例如餐廳等場所。但我們看到——我們看到超過一半的停業企業已經恢復營業，我們認為這非常好，而且速度相對較快。我們看到，在 PEO 和 ASO 服務中，審核流程有所改進，工作場所員工的品質也有所提升。所以，這種基地變化基本上也發生得相當快。所以他們讓員工回歸的速度比我們預期的還要快，希望這種情況能持續下去。但整體趨勢無疑是持續改進。

On the sales side, we are still remote for the most part. We are starting to visit clients if they want to be visited and the rep is comfortable visiting. We've taken all the necessary safety protocols. But we are finding that some clients want to meet in person, but frankly, most clients, the majority of our sales, are coming from a remote online and in discussion over the phone. And that is working very well. I'm actually amazed at the number of final sales we ended up with in the fourth quarter, given the remote workforce that we have. We also permanently shifted a number of our -- double-digit percentage of our SMB, our small business, sales reps to inside sales because it was going so well. Of course, we've been doing virtual telephonic sales for many years, but we're increasing that number because of the success of it. And the productivity of that and the tools that we had in place already for virtual have continued to work well. So sales productivity coming up, checks per client coming up and suspended clients who are suspended processing have been going down quite dramatically. Efrain, anything you want to add to that?

在銷售方面，我們目前仍主要採用遠距辦公模式。如果客戶願意且銷售代表也覺得方便，我們會開始拜訪客戶。我們已採取所有必要的安全措施。但我們發現有些客戶希望見面，但坦白說，大多數客戶，我們的大部分銷售額，都是透過遠端線上和電話討論獲得的。而且效果非常好。考慮到我們擁有遠距辦公團隊，我對第四季度最終的銷售額感到非常驚訝。我們也永久地將我們中小企業（SMB）銷售代表中的兩位數百分比轉移到了內部銷售職位，因為內部銷售業績非常好。當然，我們多年來一直在進行虛擬電話銷售，但由於這種方式取得了成功，我們正在增加這個數字。而且，這種方式的效率以及我們之前為虛擬辦公室準備的工具都繼續發揮著良好的作用。因此，銷售效率、每位客戶的支票數量以及暫停處理的暫停客戶數量都大幅下降。埃弗雷恩，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think in addition to all of those metrics, David, we track a number of other metrics, including everything from hours punched to time recorded to funds flow through the systems, and they're all showing a pretty significant recovery from the depths of where we were 4, 5 weeks ago.

我認為，除了上述所有指標之外，David，我們還追蹤了許多其他指標，包括打卡工時、記錄工時以及資金在系統中的流動情況等等，所有這些指標都顯示，我們已經從 4、5 週前的低谷中顯著恢復過來。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Wald with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的史蒂文·沃爾德。

Maybe just following up on David's sort of question around the KPIs moving forward towards what you're seeing now. And I believe, Marty, your comment about client retention being up, the highest it's ever been. First, could we get that specific number? I think the last we had seen a number there was 82% or just hovering above 82%. And separately, as we think about the revenue dynamics, given client retention is typically a bigger piece for sensitivity on the revenue front, but the revenue guide seems to have stayed roughly the same, the down 2% to 5% sounds like the low to mid-single-digit decline you gave in mid-May. Would it be fair to say that the bookings activity, although holding up relatively better than what you expected, has gotten slightly worse if the retention has gotten maybe better? Or were you already assuming that retention would have gone up?

也許只是想就 David 提出的問題做個後續探討，關於 KPI 如何朝著你現在看到的方向發展。我相信，馬蒂，你關於客戶留存率上升到歷史最高水準的說法。首先，我們能得到那個具體的數字嗎？我記得上次看到這個數字是 82% 或接近 82%。另外，當我們考慮收​​入動態時，考慮到客戶留存率通常是對收入更為敏感的因素，但收入預期似乎大致保持不變，下降 2% 到 5% 聽起來像是您在 5 月中旬給出的個位數低到中位數的降幅。如果用戶留存率可能有所提高，那麼可以說預訂活動雖然比預期好一些，但卻略有惡化嗎？還是你之前就已經預料到用戶留存率會上升？

No. I think we assumed that -- the retention is around 83%, so an all-time high for us. Now we're conservative. So when you look at that, and we still have the suspended clients, even though they're less than half of where they were at the peak, this is still rapidly changing. So we're trying to make sure we understand how many clients are suspended and how many may permanently go out of business. Our retention is the best it's been, but we'd like to give it another month to kind of see if those -- all those clients come back or how many are lost and that kind of thing. Bookings, no, I mean really, sales have continued to be pretty steady. So we haven't seen any degradation in that in sales. Look, they're not where they were pre-COVID yet, but they are definitely improving. And so I don't -- I think it's just all in those ranges. I wouldn't say anything. Sales has been improving. And losses and retention, I guess, I'd say, is definitely at an all-time high. But we're waiting to kind of make sure over the next 30 to 60 days that all those clients that we retained have really been retained and are not just in a suspended state that then go out of business.

不。我認為我們之前就預料到了——用戶留存率約為 83%，這是我們有史以來的最高水平。我們現在是保守派了。所以，當你觀察這些數據時，你會發現，儘管被暫停的客戶數量不到高峰的一半，但我們仍然有一些被暫停的客戶，這種情況仍在迅速變化。所以我們正在努力了解有多少客戶被暫停服務，又有多少客戶可能會永久倒閉。我們的客戶留存率達到了歷史最高水平，但我們想再觀察一個月，看看這些客戶是否會全部回歸，或者有多少客戶流失等等。預訂量，不，我是說真的，銷售量一直保持穩定。所以，我們沒有看到銷售額有任何下滑。你看，他們還沒恢復到新冠疫情前的水平，但他們肯定在進步。所以我覺得——我認為它們都在這些範圍內。我什麼也不會說。銷售情況有所改善。我想說，損失和留存率肯定都達到了歷史最高水準。但我們正在等待，以確保在接下來的 30 到 60 天內，所有我們保留的客戶都真正保留了下來，而不是處於暫停狀態，然後倒閉。

Our losses to competitors have been remarkably improved. So I don't think -- and also we found a time where people were not moving. So they're not moving to competitors to maybe pick up an extra discount or something like that at a time when they need our help, in particular, with the loans and the forgiveness calculators that we've gotten a lot of client testimonials on. So we've held more clients. We definitely have done better in not losing clients per price or to competition. And then I think the conservative nature, Steven, is just kind of watch and what happens here in the next 30 to 60 days.

我們在對陣競爭對手的比賽中損失顯著減少。所以我覺得——而且我們也發現有一段時間人們沒有流動。所以，在他們需要我們幫助的時候，他們不會為了獲得額外的折扣或其他好處而轉向競爭對手，尤其是在我們獲得了大量客戶好評的貸款和貸款減免計算器方面。所以我們接待了更多客戶。我們在避免因價格或競爭而流失客戶方面確實做得更好了。然後，我認為史蒂文的保守做法就是靜觀其變，看看接下來 30 到 60 天內會發生什麼事。

Okay. Great. It's a lot of commentary. I appreciate the comments there. But if I could just quickly follow up on how you guys are thinking about the underlying assumptions. Efrain, I really appreciate the granular look at fiscal '21, the first half, even the first quarter versus the second half. Could you talk to how you're thinking about the underlying employment rate? I mean I don't know if you're able to put a specific number on it, but maybe a range of where it will be? Sort of as we get to mid-year, maybe the end of the fiscal year? What you're thinking of the exit rate? And also how you're thinking about the disparity between employment in different regions and states driving that? Because clearly, we're seeing very different experiences across states with either -- I don't know whether you want to call it a second wave rising or a continuation of the first wave or some states are really moving towards reopening versus those that are now closing up. Just wondering how you guys are thinking about the underlying assumptions broadly.

好的。偉大的。評論很多。感謝大家的評論。但我能快速地跟進一下，了解一下你們是如何看待這些基本假設的。艾佛雷恩，我非常欣賞你對 2021 財年上半年，甚至是第一季與下半年的細緻分析。您能否談談您對潛在就業率的看法？我的意思是，我不知道你能不能給出一個具體的數字，但或許可以給一個範圍？大概到了年中，或者說財政年度末的時候？你對退出率有什麼看法？還有，您如何看待不同地區和州之間就業差距造成的這種現象？因為很明顯，我們看到各州的情況截然不同——我不知道該稱之為第二波疫情的興起還是第一波疫情的延續，或者有些州正在真正地走向重新開放，而有些州則正在關閉。想知道你們對這些基本假設的整體看法是什麼。

Yes. So yes, let me talk to that, Steven. So when you have a shock like this, the impact is felt -- obviously, you felt that in April and May, and that can -- we knew it would continue into June, July and August, which is our first quarter, and I suspect others will report similar impacts or at least in that same range. Our assumption is that as we get through the first quarter, we start to see improvement, but we are not assuming that we see improvement to pre-COVID levels in Q2. As a matter of fact, we don't see that occurring really until the tail end of Q3 in the forecast. By the time we get to Q4, I would say that we are now looking at an environment that's much closer to where we were, say, in Q3 of this year than where we will have been in the first 3 quarters of the year. And I would say that part of the reason for that is that we will understand what the recovery of our clients is, what's been happening with checks, what -- where bookings growth is anticipated to be. I think we've done a lot of simulation and modeling to get that reasonably correct. And so I would say this forecast assumes very modest gradual improvement through the first 3 quarters of the year. And then in the fourth quarter, obviously, you have an easier compare. So we expect to see results much better than certainly the first quarter. And we're going to monitor it. I think that to your point, we can tell by vertical who's impacted, we can tell by state. I would say the fact that New York and California are struggling a bit in terms of reopening doesn't help the outlook, but it's baked into our thinking. And also, we assume some recovery in certain states based on verticals that are in that state; for example, Florida and hospitality. We assume that that's going to take a while to recover, and that we'll start to see that as we head into next year because it makes sense to us that that's what will occur. But I would say in the first 3 quarters, we are cautious about how quickly that's going to occur.

是的。是的，史蒂文，讓我來談談這件事。所以，當遭遇這樣的衝擊時，其影響是顯而易見的——顯然，你在四月和五月就感受到了這一點，而且——我們知道這種情況會持續到六月、七月和八月，也就是我們的第一季度，我懷疑其他人也會報告類似的衝擊，或者至少是相同程度的衝擊。我們的假設是，隨著第一季的結束，我們將開始看到改善，但我們並不認為第二季會恢復到新冠疫情前的水平。事實上，我們預計這種情況要到第三季末才會真正發生。到第四季度，我認為我們所處的環境將更接近今年第三季的情況，而不是今年前三個季度的情況。我認為部分原因是，我們將了解客戶的復甦情況，支票發放情況如何，以及預計預訂成長點在哪裡。我認為我們已經做了大量的模擬和建模工作，才得出比較準確的結果。因此，我認為這項預測假設今年前三個季度情況將出現非常溫和的漸進式改善。顯然，到了第四季度，比較起來就容易多了。因此，我們預計業績肯定會比第一季好得多。我們會密切關注此事。我認為你的觀點是正確的，我們可以透過垂直方向來判斷誰受到了影響，也可以透過州來判斷。我認為，紐約和加州在重新開放方面遇到一些困難，這對前景不利，但這已經融入了我們的思考之中。此外，我們假設某些州的某些行業會根據該州的垂直行業出現一定程度的復甦；例如，佛羅裡達州的酒店業。我們認為這需要一段時間才能恢復，而且我們預計明年就會開始看到這種情況，因為我們認為這種情況的發生是合乎邏輯的。但我認為，在前三個季度，我們對這種情況發生的速度持謹慎態度。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

Maybe just to pick up on that discussion thread a little bit. I was curious maybe (inaudible) on some of those states that you mentioned that have gone through these partial reclosings, if you will, Florida, Texas, Arizona. Are you seeing any increase in clients that have had to go dormant for a second time because of reclosings?

或許只是想稍微接上一下那個討論話題。我有點好奇，也許（聽不清楚）你提到的那些經歷了部分重新關閉的州，像是佛羅裡達州、德州、亞利桑那州。您是否發現因房屋再次關閉而必須第二次進入休眠狀態的客戶數量增加？

Jason, let me take the front of that -- or the first part of it. I think we've seen some, but not too much yet at this point. It's been relatively recent, of course, in this month. So we haven't seen too much of that yet. And the funny thing is, some of the southern states still are performing the best when you look at our small business index, and when you break it down by region, the South, particularly with construction. Now leisure and hospitality gets hurt, and that will be hurt by some of these closings kind of coming back, some of the bars and some of the restaurants. But construction is still doing pretty well, and we have a number of clients in that construction business and that support kind of around construction. So home sales are up, new home sales are up double-digit still. And a lot of that is the South and then some of the commercial construction is still up in the South and particularly Florida. So I think that won't hurt us quite as much. Obviously, the leisure and hospitality will bounce around a bit. But we haven't seen -- like I -- we haven't seen at least at this point in our indicators when we look weekly any major drop in those states that have seen some higher recurrence, reoccurrence, I guess, or a continuation of occurrence and closures.

傑森，讓我來談談這件事——或者說，讓我談談這件事的第一部分。我認為我們已經看到了一些，但目前還不夠多。當然，這件事發生的時間相對較近，就在這個月。所以，我們目前還沒有看到太多這樣的情況。有趣的是，從我們的小型企業指數來看，一些南方州的表現仍然最好；而按地區細分來看，南方，特別是建築業，表現尤為突出。現在休閒和餐飲業受到了衝擊，一些酒吧和餐廳的重新開業也會對這些行業造成打擊。但建築業仍然發展良好，我們有很多客戶從事建築業，並為建築業提供支援。所以房屋銷售額上升了，新房銷售額仍維持兩位數的成長。其中許多都位於南方，而且一些商業建築仍然在南方，特別是佛羅裡達州。所以我覺得這不會對我們造成太大傷害。顯然，休閒和旅館業的格局會有些波動。但是，我們還沒有看到——就像我一樣——至少在我們每週查看指標時，還沒有看到那些復發率較高、或者說是再次復發、或者說疫情持續發生和封鎖的州出現任何重大下降。

Okay. That's helpful. And I wanted to just ask for a little bit more color on the comment about the client retention hitting the all-time high, the 83%. Is that for the fiscal Q4? Was that a full year fiscal '20 comment? And maybe as part of that, can you sort of break apart the moving pieces of retention? I know you mentioned [competitive] takeaways are down because there's not a lot of switching going on. So just wanted to understand in the churn that you are seeing, what the kind of mix of out of business versus (inaudible) versus third-party takeaways, what that's looking like right now? And what you're assuming for the retention number in '21?

好的。那很有幫助。我想請您更詳細地說明一下關於客戶留存率達到歷史最高水準 83% 的評論。這是指第四財季嗎？這是2020財年全年狀況的評價嗎？或許，作為其中的一部分，你能否將留存的各個組成部分拆解開來分析？我知道你提到過，由於用戶轉換不多，（競爭性）外賣量有所下降。所以我想了解一下，在你們看到的這種人員變動中，倒閉企業、（聽不清楚）和第三方收購等各種情況的組合目前是什麼樣的？您對 2021 年的員工留存率有何預期？

Yes. I think the hard part right now, as I mentioned, was that the suspended accounts. And so it is our best retention, and it has been because there were fewer takeaways, as we said, and less leaving for price. Out of business was up slightly, but overall, I think that was probably pretty consistent, maybe up slightly. The improvement, it would come from competitive takeaways or price and -- in that scheme of things. Right now, we'd expect that given the really high -- we also are hitting great Net Promoter Scores and client satisfaction. We have got great client testimonials. I really think clients have felt like between the payroll report that help them -- make it easy for them to file for the PPP loan and then the loan forgiveness estimator that is so comprehensive, we've gotten a lot of great feedback. And I do think that's helped drive the value to our clients even more kind of in a crisis when they really needed us, they found that we were there and very helpful to them and important. So I think that's helped. The only thing that I said is -- we played a little conservative is we'd like to see how the next month or 2 fall out for the other suspended accounts. Again, they've fallen more than in half of the peak, but we just want to get a sense of do we hold at that level of retention? Or were these some accounts that were suspended, but they're still in business, but they might not make it longer term? Right now, it all -- by now, I would have thought that many of those would have declared they're out of business. I don't think the -- there either could be an impact from the reclosings. If you're a bar or a restaurant and you were closed, then you opened back up at 50%, but now you've been closed again, does that have an impact or not? We're not sure yet. But right now, we're very positive based on all the facts that we're seeing.

是的。正如我之前提到的，我認為目前最困難的部分是帳戶被封鎖的問題。因此，這是我們最好的客戶留存率，正如我們所說，這是因為流失的客戶較少，而且因價格原因離開的客戶也較少。倒閉企業數量略有上升，但總體而言，我認為這個數字可能相當穩定，或許略有上升。改進將來自具有競爭力的產品或價格——從這個角度來看。目前，鑑於我們目前的高淨推薦值和客戶滿意度，我們預計會取得非常好的成績。我們獲得了客戶的一致好評。我真的覺得客戶都覺得，從幫助他們申請 PPP 貸款的薪資報告，到非常全面的貸款豁免估算器，我們收到了很多很好的回饋。而且我認為這確實有助於提升我們為客戶創造的價值。在危機時刻，當他們真正需要我們的時候，他們發現我們就在那裡，對他們非常有幫助，而且非常重要。所以我覺得這很有幫助。我唯一說的是——我們採取了稍微保守的做法，我們想看看接下來一兩個月其他被暫停帳戶的情況會如何發展。雖然用戶留存率已經下降了一半以上，但我們只是想了解用戶留存率是否能維持在目前的水平？或者這些帳戶雖然被暫停了，但仍在繼續營業，只是可能無法長期維持下去？現在，所有這些——照理說，到目前為止，我以為其中很多公司都會宣布倒閉。我不認為——重新關閉可能會產生任何影響。如果你是一家酒吧或餐廳，之前停業了一段時間，然後以 50% 的客容量重新開業，但現在又停業了，這會有影響嗎？我們還不確定。但就目前我們所看到的所有事實而言，我們非常樂觀。

Okay. And just to clarify, the 83% number was for Q4 or that was full year fiscal...

好的。需要澄清的是，83%這個數字是指第四季還是整個財年？

I'm sorry, full year, full year, I'm sorry, full year.

對不起，整整一年，整整一年，對不起，整整一年。

Okay. Where did you exit the year on that metric?

好的。根據這項指標，你今年的最終排名如何？

Well, 83%.

嗯，83%。

That's it, that's the year.

就這樣，這一年結束了。

That's the year, the end of the year.

一年就到此結束了。

As of the end of the year, okay.

到年底為止，可以。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

I wonder, I guess, what drove the decision -- the $40 million charge, I know you were kind of in the process of doing that. It sounds like a lot of it is occupancy. Is there any way to frame -- is it specific geographies? And is it just kind of the success that you saw having forced to do remotely? Did that kind of drove that decision? I guess just any additional thoughts around that? And then what the margin impact can be longer term from those actions?

我想知道，是什麼促成了這個決定——4000萬美元的指控，我知道你當時正在著手處理這件事。聽起來很大程度是入住率的問題。有沒有辦法限定一下──是指特定的地理位置嗎？只是因為被迫遠距辦公才取得了成功嗎？那件事是否在某種程度上促成了那個決定？我想大家還有什麼其他想法嗎？那麼，這些措施從長遠來看會對利潤率產生怎樣的影響呢？

Sure. I'll start with it. The -- we've been -- we had a plan in place that -- as you know, we had a number of offices across the country, that was our model. And what we were finding is, as we consolidated, as offices got smaller and we were consolidating to regional service centers, we could put better technology in place and so forth. And we had a number of people working from home already. And in fact, when we would close a kind of a remote office, we would let the experienced people, many of them, work from home from a service perspective because we had all the tools in place. When we saw the -- that 95% of our employees were working from home and that our client satisfaction even went up and our retention was even stronger, we look -- took a look at, is this a way to reduce cost a little bit faster. And we decided to accelerate closing a number of physical locations, allowing people to work from home even in those local areas and -- from a service perspective, and that we could save a tremendous amount of lease expense and rental expense on the physical location. So that's why we decided to accelerate it. That's already been announced to our employees, and we're already moving forward and taking those steps, and that was the majority of the $40 million. There was also -- as Efrain mentioned, there was also some reduction in force, but it was quite small, less than 2% of our employees. Still painful to do. But as we work through the closing of certain offices and so forth and some other reorganizations, we also took those actions as well.

當然。我先從它開始。我們一直以來都制定了一個計劃，正如您所知，我們在全國各地設有多個辦事處，這就是我們的模式。我們發現，隨著我們不斷整合，辦公室規模越來越小，我們逐漸整合為區域服務中心，這樣我們就可以部署更好的技術等等。而且我們當時已經有不少員工在家辦公了。事實上，當我們關閉遠距辦公室時，我們會讓許多經驗豐富的員工在家辦公，因為我們已經具備了所有必要的工具。當我們看到 95% 的員工都在家辦公，客戶滿意度甚至上升了，員工留存率也更高了，我們就開始考慮，這是否是一種更快地降低成本的方法。於是我們決定加快關閉一些實體辦公地點，讓即使在這些地區，人們也可以在家工作——從服務角度來看，我們可以節省大量的實體辦公地點租賃費用和租金。所以這就是我們決定加快進度的原因。我們已經向員工宣布了此事，並且已經在推進和採取這些措施，這筆款項佔了 4000 萬美元的大部分。正如埃弗雷恩所提到的那樣，公司也進行了一些裁員，但規模很小，不到我們員工總數的 2%。做起來仍然很痛苦。但是，隨著我們逐步關閉某些辦公室等等，以及進行其他一些重組，我們也採取了這些行動。

And on your second question, Kevin, if you take the $40 million, you tax effect the $40 million, you can figure out now what the EPS impact will be. We anticipate that, that will be -- that will come out of the cost structure going forward.

關於你的第二個問題，凱文，如果你把這 4000 萬美元算進去，考慮到這 4000 萬美元的稅收影響，你現在可以計算出每股收益會受到怎樣的影響。我們預計，這將會——這將從未來的成本結構中反映出來。

That's helpful. And then just one quick follow-up. The guidance, it assumes kind of no incremental federal stimulus. I guess just -- and obviously, there's been some concern that if some of the states don't get incremental funding, there could be some layoffs, things like that. Is that embedded in the guidance as well? Or would that be something that would be another thing that could potentially impact us?

那很有幫助。然後，還有一個簡短的後續問題。該指導意見假設不會有額外的聯邦刺激措施。我想只是——而且顯然，有人擔心，如果一些州沒有額外的資金，可能會出現裁員之類的情況。這一點也包含在指導方針中嗎？或者說，這會是另一件可能對我們產生潛在影響的事情嗎？

Yes. I don't think we're at that level right now, Kevin. I mean literally, I would say, if you were in our management meetings every week, we're looking at different scenarios in terms of both -- what ideas that are coming out of Congress, extension of PPP, what the impact of all of that is. But we're not at a granular level where we're saying, "Hey, if that happens, it's going to result in a bump of x percent." We're still early to do that.

是的。凱文，我覺得我們現在還沒達到那個水準。我的意思是，如果你每週都參加我們的管理會議，你會發現我們正在從兩個方面考慮不同的情況——國會提出的想法、延長 PPP 計劃，以及所有這些的影響。但我們還沒有達到能夠具體指出「如果發生這種情況，將會導致 x% 的成長」的程度。現在還為時過早。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

你的下一個問題源自安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾的那條線索。

I just hoping you could compare the resiliency of the PEO business to the payroll business in terms of the health of your end clients. Is there any major difference in the way the 2 client bases have reacted to the current environment? And how is that impacting your outlook for each business?

我只是希望您能從最終客戶的健康狀況方面，比較一下 PEO 業務和薪資服務業務的韌性。這兩個客戶群對當前環境的反應是否有重大差異？這對您各業務的前景有何影響？

Well, I think I'll start and ask Efrain if he wants to add something. I think we saw a drop in both, obviously, with furloughs and things like that. What you saw in the small business on the payroll side, businesses actually shut down or were closed. So you had no employees there. On the PEO side, usually a little bit larger client base -- a little bit larger average client. And they reduced their employees, their worksite employees. But both have come back pretty well, And the worksite employees, basically, what we refer to as change in base, so change of existing employees being paid within the worksite employees has bounced back, I think, a little bit better than we expected on the PEO side. There is a great demand for both PEO and ASO. I think this has helped clients who -- I would say, on the PEO and ASO side, more people have moved towards that HR outsourcing because this is just too difficult for them to handle if they have 25 to 35, 40 employees, which is kind of our average size on the PEO client. I think more have moved that way because of the need and the complexity of the regulations. And how do you bring people back? How do you furlough? When you bring them back, what -- how do you handle all of the changes that have been put in place and for insurances and so forth?

嗯，我想我先來問問埃弗雷恩有沒有什麼要補充的。我認為很明顯，由於員工休假等原因，這兩個數字都出現了下降。在小型企業薪資方面，我們看到的情況是，有些企業實際上已經倒閉或關門了。所以你們那裡沒有員工。在 PEO 方面，通常客戶群會更大一些——平均客戶數量也會更多。他們減少了員工人數，也就是減少了工地員工人數。但兩者都恢復得相當不錯。就工作場所員工而言，我們所說的基本變化，也就是現有員工薪酬的變化，我認為，在 PEO 方面，情況比我們預期的要好一些。PEO和ASO的需求量都很大。我認為這幫助了客戶——就 PEO 和 ASO 而言，更多的人轉向了人力資源外包，因為如果他們有 25 到 35、40 名員工（這差不多是我們 PEO 客戶的平均規模），那麼自己處理起來就太困難了。我認為更多人選擇這樣做是因為法規的必要性和複雜性。如何才能讓人們回來？如何安排員工休假？當你把它們帶回來的時候，你會如何處理所有已經實施的變更，以及保險等方面的問題？

And on the small business side, I think we've also seen that come back, but that one's been a little bit more about either being open or closed kind of thing, where the PEO has been kind of stayed open but reduced their employee set. Both are showing improvements, though, and a little bit better than we expected. So we certainly hope that, that continues.

在小型企業方面，我認為我們也看到了這種趨勢的回歸，但這更多的是一種要么營業要么關閉的狀態，而 PEO 公司則保持營業，但減少了員工人數。兩者都有所改善，而且比我們預期的要好一些。所以，我們當然希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

Yes. Andrew, what I would add is that the nature of our PEO business is a little different than the nature of our SMB business in terms of its geographic scope. And so our PEO has more concentration in the state of Florida, as we've discussed before. And as a consequence, if we just isolate that factor, we would have more exposure to hospitality in some of the industries that have been hard hit. When we looked at the data, it was pretty clear that they were -- there was almost a hair trigger reaction in terms of reducing employees. But to Marty's point, we started to see them come back. I would say we over-indexed a bit in some parts of the business on hospitality. So we probably have been hit a little harder than perhaps other people, other companies may be. But we're also now starting to see pretty rapid recovery in terms of worksite employees. I think the state of how your PEO reacts in this environment is going to really depend on where your concentration is. If you're in a concentration in a state or you have a heavy concentration in a state that's been shut down, you're going to end up with one result. If you have one where the -- where a lot of your work's at a place or in a state that remained relatively open, you have a different point. But just to reiterate what Marty said, so we didn't see clients necessarily stopping their processing, what we saw was clients reducing significantly their processing and now adding employees back.

是的。Andrew，我想補充的是，就地理範圍而言，我們的 PEO 業務性質與我們的 SMB 業務性質略有不同。因此，正如我們之前討論過的，我們的專業雇主組織 (PEO) 在佛羅裡達州的業務更為集中。因此，如果我們只關注這個因素，就會發現一些遭受重創的行業中，旅館業受到的影響會更大。當我們查看數據時，很明顯，他們在裁員方面幾乎是一觸即發。但正如馬蒂所說，我們開始看到他們回來了。我認為我們在酒店服務等某些業務領域的投入略微過高了。所以，我們受到的衝擊可能比其他人、其他公司還要大。但我們現在也開始看到工地員工的工作狀況正在快速恢復。我認為 PEO 在這種環境下的反應狀態，實際上取決於其濃度分佈。如果你在一個州處於高濃度狀態，或者在一個已經封鎖的州處於高度高濃度狀態，那麼你最終會得到一個結果。如果你的許多工作都在一個相對開放的地方或州進行，那麼情況就不同了。但正如馬蒂所說，我們並沒有看到客戶停止處理業務，而是看到客戶大幅減少了處理業務，現在又增加了員工。

Great. Great. That's very helpful. And then sticking with PEO, just wondering if there's any update to how you're viewing the M&A opportunity set there. I mean how much are you kind of considering the volatility or the variability in the economic backdrop and considering future deals? And are you at a point even now where you might be comfortable moving forward with something like that?

偉大的。偉大的。那很有幫助。繼續說PEO，我想知道您對那裡的併購機會有什麼最新的看法。我的意思是，您在多大程度上考慮了經濟背景的波動性或變化性，以及對未來交易的考慮？你現在是否已經到了可以接受並推進類似事情的地步？

Sure. Yes, we're still very interested. Obviously, we think the PEO business, it's a growing part of our business, and we do think that there's M&A opportunities out there. We're staying in touch. In the -- in this environment, it's a little bit difficult, obviously, one, from a remote working just the due diligence and so forth. But we're staying in touch with certain opportunities, and we're continuing to watch those. It does make it a little bit more difficult, not only the remote piece of diligence, but to understand where they've dropped employees or dropped clients, what's the take now? What's the valuation? And many of the possibilities of acquisitions are also a little bit nervous about selling at this point unless you're -- unless we're willing as a buyer or any buyer is willing to kind of overvalue expecting how it's going to bounce back. So it's a little bit of a tenuous time to buy, but we're staying very close to that market and very interested for the right opportunity.

當然。是的，我們仍然非常感興趣。顯然，我們認為 PEO 業務是我們業務中不斷成長的一部分，我們也認為有併購機會。我們一直保持聯繫。在這種環境下，顯然有點困難，一方面，遠距辦公很難進行盡職調查等等。但我們會與一些機會保持聯繫，並繼續關注這些機會。這確實讓事情變得更難了，不僅是遠端盡職調查，還要了解他們在哪裡裁員或流失客戶，以及他們現在的處境如何？估值是多少？而且，許多潛在的收購者目前也對出售持謹慎態度，除非──除非我們身為買家願意，或任何買家願意高估它的價值，期待它能迅速反彈。所以現在買進時機可能有點不穩定，但我們會密切關注這個市場，並尋找合適的時機。

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Just following up on the discussion, thinking about the suspended clients. What percentage of those fall in that bucket still or remain dormant? Is it 10% of the base, 20% of the base? I just don't have a good sense of that.

繼續討論一下，關於被暫停服務的客戶。其中有多少百分比仍屬於這一類，或仍處於休眠狀態？是基礎的10%還是20%？我對此不太有感覺。

Much smaller, Bryan, much smaller. I don't think we've given out the number. But one, it's dropped in half. Even at its peak, it wasn't anywhere near 10%. So it's -- yes, that's a good question, actually. So people don't feel like it's too large, it's not that large. We haven't given the number, but it's -- I wouldn't -- it's not even -- not even 10%. Well, it's probably -- frankly, when you put it all together, where we are now, it might be 1% to 2%. So we probably over-discussed that for the number that are out there.

小得多，布萊恩，小得多。我認為我們還沒有公佈這個號碼。但是，它已經下降了一半。即使在巔峰時期，也遠未達 10%。所以——是的，這確實是個好問題。所以人們不會覺得它太大，它其實沒那麼大。我們沒有給出具體數字，但——我不會——甚至不到——甚至不到 10%。嗯，坦白說，綜合所有因素來看，就我們目前的狀況而言，可能只有 1% 到 2%。所以，對於市面上存在的這類問題，我們可能討論得有點過頭了。

Wow, okay. So it's only 1% to 2% that look like they could close down or -- or fail, I guess, at this point.

哇，好的。所以目前看來，只有 1% 到 2% 的公司可能會倒閉或——或者說，可能會失敗。

Yes, that are still suspended and suspended as a result of COVID because we always have some suspended but -- that are seasonal and things like that. But we can break out the best we can what are really COVID related in that timing, it's definitely under 2%, probably in that 1% to 2% range.

是的，有些項目仍然暫停，有些項目因為新冠疫情而暫停，因為我們總是會有一些項目暫停，但那些是季節性的等等。但是，我們可以盡力找出這段時間內真正與新冠疫情相關的病例，肯定低於 2%，可能在 1% 到 2% 的範圍內。

And does that include businesses that you've already kind of realized that have failed or turned off?

這是否包括你已經意識到已經失敗或關閉的企業？

No.

不。

Meaning are there another percentage group already that are closed that are basically turned off?

也就是說，是否還有其他百分比群體已經關閉，基本上處於關閉狀態？

Well, that would be in our loss numbers. So we've already taken those as lost clients, and they're not in the retention numbers. The only thing that's in our client base right now, there is 1% to 2% that are suspended because of COVID, and we're still kind of waiting to see how those kind of end up, if that helps. Anything that went in loss already is out of the client base.

那將計入我們的損失數字。所以我們已經把這些人視為流失客戶，他們不計入客戶留存率統計中。目前我們的客戶群中只有 1% 到 2% 的客戶因為新冠疫情而暫停服務，我們仍在觀望這些客戶的最終情況，希望這能有所幫助。已經虧損的客戶都已從客戶群中移除。

Yes. And so that loss percentage, is that -- was that -- how does that compare to a normal recession? Just trying to get a sense of how big that percentage was.

是的。那麼，這個損失百分比，也就是──也就是──與正常的經濟衰退相比如何？我只是想了解這個百分比到底有多大。

Yes. Really, at this point -- the last recession -- this was so much deeper, but we didn't really -- at this point, we haven't lost, I would say, anything like the last recession. Now that went longer, and so you lost them over a period of time, probably 18 months. This one was -- we went much deeper. And I think we handled it very well from a payroll specialist and the relationships that we had. We kind of talked to them about being suspended. So where they may have said, "Hey, I'm going to go lost and if I need to -- if I'm going to start back up I'll call you again." We kept it from going loss, having to sell it again in competition, and it made it much easier for our clients and easier for us. So it's really been, frankly, a lot better than, I would say, the last recession 10 years ago, which, really, those losses were larger and came over a longer period of time.

是的。確實，就目前而言——上次經濟衰退——這次的程度要嚴重得多，但我們並沒有——就目前而言，我認為，我們沒有遭受像上次經濟衰退那樣的損失。現在這種情況持續了更長時間，所以你在一段時間內失去了它們，大概有 18 個月。這次，我們深入探討得更透徹。我認為，憑藉薪資專員的專業知識和我們建立的人際關係，我們處理得非常好。我們跟他們談了談停學的事。所以，他們原本可能會說：「嘿，我要失敗了，如果需要——如果我要重新開始，我會再聯繫你們。」但我們避免了虧損，避免了在競爭中再次出售，這讓我們的客戶和我們都輕鬆了很多。坦白說，這次的情況比 10 年前的上次經濟衰退要好得多，當時的損失更大，持續時間也更長。

Got it. Helpful. And then just last question I had, Efrain, just thinking about the 4Q guidance, you said it comes back to more looking like more normal growth. And I guess that's the jump-off period as we go into fiscal year '22. Just thinking about the puts and takes there. With the weaker numbers versus -- or the easier comp piece of that versus does business start to bounce back with new sales, that kind of thing, how do we think about that trajectory as we head into 4Q and then head into fiscal year '22?

知道了。很有幫助。埃弗雷恩，我最後一個問題，關於第四季度的業績指引，你說它看起來更像是正常的成長。我想這就是我們進入 2022 財年的起點。我只是在想那裡的買賣機會。與去年同期相比，今年同期數據疲軟——或者說，與去年同期相比，今年同期數據更容易比較——業務是否會隨著新銷售額的增加而開始反彈，諸如此類的事情，我們該如何看待進入第四季度以及進入 2022 財年的發展軌跡呢？

Well, I guess it looks like a more normalized quarter, Bryan, is what I'd -- the best I can say right now. And I would say that the second half, obviously, compared to a normal year, we have less visibility in the second half compared to where we would be otherwise. But I would say by the time we get around to Q4, there's a number of things that we think will be occurring that are going to create a situation where that quarter looks a lot more normalized than certainly the first 3 quarters. So at this point, I'll just hold talking any more specifically about Q4 until we start getting our sea legs under us in this year. But I think that we've got reasonably good -- a reasonably good basis for thinking that that's the way the quarter will look.

嗯，布萊恩，我猜這看起來更像是一個比較正常的季度，這是我現在能說的最好的話了。而且我認為，很明顯，與往年相比，下半年的情況要不明朗得多。但我認為，到了第四季度，我們將會看到一些事情發生，這些事情將使第四季度的情況看起來比前三個季度正常得多。所以目前，我暫時不會再更具體地談論第四季的情況，直到我們今年開始步入正軌為止。但我認為我們已經有了相當不錯的依據，可以認為本季的情況會是這樣。

No, that's helpful. And then as we get into fiscal year '22, it's just -- there's no reason why it shouldn't be more normalized as well as we jump off at that point?

不，這很有幫助。然後到了 2022 財年，就應該——沒有理由不讓它更加正常化，就像我們從那時開始跳出這個階段一樣？

Right. Yes. So we've been talking about non-processing clients, worksite employees being down, checks per payroll, all of that stuff is going to normalize out as we go through. And I think that the point I want to make -- reiterate that Marty has been making in this call is this: We have the right kind of model for the situation we are in. What I mean by that is, a tech services model in an uncertain environment is the kind of environment -- is the kind of business that you want to have. Now it's great that I say that, it really is irrelevant that I say it. What's more important is the feedback we're getting from clients. We have not -- never gotten as much positive reinforcement for the role we have played over the last several months. So we think not only do we recover, but we have, in the balance of the year, the ability to gain share in the market because we have the right model in an environment that's very uncertain for the kind of clients that we serve. So we are bullish as we go through the year that as we exit the year, we're going to be not only recovered compared to where we are now, but actually going to -- the strength of our model is going to show, and we could very well end up being in a better place than we were when we entered the COVID era.

正確的。是的。所以我們一直在討論客戶不處理業務、工作場所員工缺勤、工資發放支票等問題，所有這些都會隨著時間的推移而恢復正常。我想強調的一點——也是馬蒂在這通電話中一直強調的一點——是：我們擁有適合我們目前處境的正確模式。我的意思是，在不確定的環境下，技術服務模式正是你想要擁有的那種環境──那種商業模式。現在我說這話很好，但我說不說這話其實都無關緊要。更重要的是我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋。在過去的幾個月裡，我們所做的工作從未得到如此多的正面回饋。因此我們認為，我們不僅能夠復甦，而且在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們有能力在市場份額上取得進展，因為我們擁有正確的模式，而我們所服務的客戶群正處於一個非常不確定的環境中。因此，我們對今年的前景充滿信心，相信到年底，我們不僅會比現在的情況有所好轉，而且實際上還會——我們模型的優勢將會顯現出來，我們最終很可能會比進入新冠疫情時代時的情況更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Bryan Bergin 與 Cowen 的對話。

I wanted to ask on the outlook, how would you characterize the projected sequential improvement in Management Solutions as far as it being driven predominantly from the improving check volumes versus some of the increased penetration of retirement and some of the other services you referenced? And Efrain, the high teens check volume decline that you called out on the update call, did you say you did better than that here in 4Q? Curious how you see that playing out in '21.

我想問一下關於前景，您如何描述管理解決方案預計的連續改善，這種改善主要是由支票數量的增加驅動的，還是由退休金滲透率的提高以及您提到的其他一些服務驅動的？埃弗雷恩，你在上次電話會議上提到的支票量大幅下降（接近10%），你有沒有說過第四季的情況比這好？很好奇你認為2021年情況會如何發展。

We did, I would say, a little bit better, Bryan, in 4Q, and we're seeing improvement as we go through Q1. Still early, but that's where we expect. So to the point -- the question that you're asking, yes, we expect that we'll get through Q1. We'll understand what clients didn't make it and then the clients that remain have an opportunity to grow and to build and build up their workforce. And the combination of a better sales environment and better sales, combined with recovery from our clients, then drives better revenue as we go through the year.

布萊恩，我認為我們在第四季做得稍微好一些，而且隨著第一季的進行，我們看到了進步。現在下結論還為時過早，但這與我們預期相符。所以回到正題——你問的問題，是的，我們預計能夠順利度過第一季。我們會了解哪些客戶沒能成功，然後留下來的客戶就有機會發展壯大，壯大他們的員工隊伍。更好的銷售環境和更好的銷售業績，再加上客戶的恢復，就能推動我們全年收入的成長。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on pay offerings. So can you just comment on what you're seeing in the adoption of the real-time pay solution versus the Pay-on-Demand offering? And then just as we think about an acceleration of digital payment methods from traditional paper checks, is there a margin story to be had for you as -- potentially through less service or other means?

好的。那很有幫助。然後是薪資待遇。那麼，您能否談談您觀察到的即時支付解決方案與按需支付方案的採用情況？當我們考慮從傳統的紙本支票加速轉向數位支付方式時，您是否能從中獲得利潤空間——例如透過減少服務或其他方式？

Well, yes, I think so. I mean I think it's -- and we're seeing part of the expense reductions that you're seeing is some of that margin. We've become more productive as more clients have gone to online, and we provide a lot of self-service opportunities. So in the past, when you think about us, we would take the information, the employee would go to their HR person or their owner of the business to change their direct deposit or change their address and then go -- they would go to us. And now that's all self-service and so the employee is really able to do all of that themselves. That saves the client and us. And so you're seeing it much more from that standpoint.

嗯，是的，我也這麼認為。我的意思是，我認為──我們看到的部分費用削減，也就是你們看到的，就是部分利潤。隨著越來越多的客戶轉向線上服務，我們的生產效率也提高了，我們提供了許多自助服務機會。所以過去，當你想到我們的時候，我們會收集信息，員工會去找他們的人力資源人員或公司老闆來更改他們的直接存款或更改他們的地址，然後——他們會來找我們。現在這些都實現了自助服務，員工完全可以自己完成所有這些工作。這樣既節省了客戶的費用，也節省了我們的費用。所以你更多是從這個角度來看這個問題的。

On the Pay-on-Demand, yes, we're seeing -- it's still early, but we introduced that around December time frame. And I think COVID kind of slowed it down a bit, but we're definitely seeing more and more interest of it. The process, we have to have the clients sign up for it, and that's been a little bit more challenging in the last couple of months, but I think it's going to pick up the pace again. And there certainly is a lot of interest and there was interest during the last few months in restaurants that would bring someone back and even now they bring someone back to do 8-hour shift and not do 40 hours but work 8 hours here or 8 hours there, and instead of waiting a few weeks for their paycheck that they were able to use the Pay-on-Demand. So I think that has a lot of opportunity going forward.

關於按需付費，是的，我們看到——現在還處於早期階段，但我們大約在 12 月推出了這項服務。我認為新冠疫情在某種程度上減緩了這一趨勢，但我們確實看到人們對它的興趣越來越濃厚。這個過程需要客戶註冊，在過去的幾個月裡，這有點具有挑戰性，但我認為它會再次加快步伐。過去幾個月裡，許多餐廳都對重新僱用員工表現出了濃厚的興趣，即使現在，他們也仍然會僱用員工來上 8 小時的班，而不是 40 小時，而是每天工作 8 小時，這樣員工就不用等待幾週才能拿到工資，而是可以使用按需支付的方式。所以我認為這方面未來有很多發展機會。

Does it have a lot of margin opportunity? I think it has some there, but because it's more of a -- there is some self-service involved there and it's less maybe that we have to do. But fundamentally, it's going to be a retention piece, too. It's going to be something that -- it's a great product that we have that people want and the clients like and their employees like, and it will help them retain their employees and us retain the client. On real-time payments, yes, I mean we're still, I think, the only business in the industry that's offering it. We've seen a pretty good pickup for just starting it a few months ago. And clients really like it. It's able to get them money in really seconds, minutes, and it's gotten very favorable reviews from our clients, particularly if they have a last-minute change or a mistake that they wanted to correct, they can do that and get it done in minutes instead of waiting for a day to happen or some -- or an ACH or wire transaction.

它有很大的利潤空間嗎？我認為它確實包含一些自助服務，但因為它更側重於——它包含一些自助服務，而我們可能不必做太多事情。但從根本上講，這也將有助於留住客戶。這將是——我們擁有的一款很棒的產品，人們想要它，客戶喜歡它，他們的員工也喜歡它，它將幫助他們留住員工，也幫助我們留住客戶。關於即時支付，是的，我的意思是，我認為我們仍然是業內唯一提供這項服務的企業。雖然才開始幾個月，但我們已經看到了相當不錯的成長。客戶們都很喜歡。它能在幾秒鐘、幾分鐘內就把錢送到客戶手中，而且得到了客戶的一致好評，特別是如果他們有最後一刻的更改或想要糾正的錯誤，他們可以在幾分鐘內完成，而無需等待一天或更長時間——或者通過 ACH 或電匯交易。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

On your business update call, you talked a little bit about what was going on, on the workers' comp side. I think you had seen lower rates, but it was offset to some extent by lower health care expense because of fewer elective procedures. Can we just get an update on how that's been trending?

在你們的業務更新電話會議上，你們稍微談到了工傷賠償方面的情況。我認為您看到的是較低的發病率，但由於擇期手術減少，醫療保健支出也隨之降低，這在一定程度上抵消了發病率的下降。能否提供一下這方面的最新趨勢？

I think comparable, Jeff, not a lot of changes. We've seen a continuation of those trends into the beginning of the year.

傑夫，我覺得差不多，變化不大。我們看到這些趨勢延續到了年初。

Okay. And it doesn't matter in terms of geographically in certain states that are opening up faster are still pretty steady?

好的。從地理位置來看，某些開放速度較快的州疫情仍然相當穩定，這並不重要嗎？

Not thus far. So we have a lot of health care -- on the PEO side, health care exposure. In the state of Florida -- our results in the state of Florida have been good. So thus far, that's good. We'll update if we see anything different.

目前還沒有。因此，我們在醫療保健方面有很多——在 PEO 方面，醫療保健風險敞口很大。我們在佛羅裡達州的成績很好。所以目前來看，情況還不錯。如有任何變化，我們會及時更新。

Okay. Great. And just as a follow-up, forgive me if you mentioned this. Did you talk about the expected cost savings that you think you're going to be getting from some of the onetime costs that you talked about?

好的。偉大的。另外，如果您之前提到過這件事，請原諒我再補充一點。你有沒有談到你認為從你提到的某些一次性成本中可以節省多少成本？

We said it was embedded in the guidance. We said it was $40 million. We said if you tax effect the $40 million, you can figure out what the benefit will be and that will continue going forward.

我們說過，這已經寫入了指導方針中。我們說是4000萬美元。我們說過，如果對這 4000 萬美元進行稅收影響，你就可以算出會有什麼好處，而且這種情況還會持續下去。

Yes. I'm sorry, I was talking about the annualized cost savings from these moves.

是的。抱歉，我指的是這些措施帶來的年度成本節約。

Yes. So I think if you take the $40 million, and you tax effect it, you'll get the benefit that we expect going forward.

是的。所以我認為，如果你把這 4000 萬美元拿出來，考慮稅收影響，你就能獲得我們預期的未來收益。

Your next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

你的下一個問題來自 Lisa Ellis 與 MoffettNathanson 的對話。

First one is just a cadence clarification. If I understood the cadence right, it looks like 1Q revenues are expected to be a downtick from 4Q, so high single to low double digits, despite a lot of these operating metrics booking. Can you just clarify why that is? Is that because of new sales dipping because of the pandemic? Or what caused that?

第一個問題只是對節奏的澄清。如果我理解的節奏沒錯，儘管許多營運指標都已實現，但預計第一季的營收將比第四季有所下降，降幅在個位數高點到兩位數低點之間。你能解釋一下這是為什麼嗎？是因為疫情導致新銷量下滑嗎？還是什麼原因造成的？

Because, Lisa, remember, Q4 has 1 month of pre-COVID results in it and April and May were the COVID months. So Q1 has, you're right, a little bit better results, but unfortunately, it also has 1 less pre-COVID month than Q4 did.

麗莎，記住，第四季的數據包含了一個月新冠疫情前的結果，而四月和五月是新冠疫情肆虐的月份。所以，你說得對，第一季的結果確實稍微好一些，但不幸的是，它比第四季少了一個新冠疫情前的月份。

Yes. Okay. Fair enough. And then second one is just a follow-up question about the competitive dynamic, and Efrain, your comments about Paychex winning share as you're coming through this. Are you seeing -- I mean I know you compete still with a lot of legacy regional service bureaus and then also some SaaS players that don't have the service component to their model. Are you seeing a notable shift in the competitive dynamic in your space? Meaning are some of these competitors really struggling through the pandemic? Are you seeing increased win rates against some of them? I'm curious, just a little bit more color on that.

是的。好的。很公平。第二個問題是關於競爭動態的後續問題，Efrain，你對 Paychex 在此期間贏得市場份額有何評論？您是否意識到——我的意思是，我知道您仍然要與許多傳統的區域服務機構競爭，還要與一些在其商業模式中不包含服務部分的 SaaS 提供者競爭。您是否觀察到所在領域的競爭格局發生了顯著變化？也就是說，這些競爭對手中真的有些在疫情期間舉步維艱嗎？你發現對某些對手的勝率有提升嗎？我很好奇，能不能再詳細說說這件事？

Yes. I think, Lisa, we're seeing -- we're certainly seeing, on the retention side, fewer leaving to go to a competitor. And so that -- we see that as positive from a competitive environment. From a win rate on sales, I would say we definitely are seeing an increase in, for example, like SurePayroll on the low end on the micro end. And we're still trying to work through whether that's competitive wins, which we -- it looks like is some of it where we're winning a little bit more there on the micro end. And also that we're getting more clients that have been doing payroll themselves, coming out and saying, "Hey, I'm going to go to someone, an online processor." Because SurePayroll benefited a lot on their website and on their offering from what we did on the federal side with the payroll report that helped them get the loans, that also has the loan forgiveness and a lot of the webinars. So I think they felt a lot of strength in the SurePayroll and Flex opportunity. And so I think we're also winning some there. So I don't think overall, the competitive environment -- I don't think we've seen any major disruption there, I would say, at this point, although there has been -- we've seen and heard some furloughs and layoffs of some of the competitors. But I do think that we are winning because of the great tools that we've had for COVID that have supported clients and supported prospects who are looking maybe for the first time to outsource.

是的。麗莎，我認為，從員工留存率來看，跳槽到競爭對手的員工確實減少了。因此，我們認為這在競爭環境中是正面的。從銷售成功率來看，我們確實看到一些產品，例如低階微型企業使用的 SurePayroll，銷售量有所成長。我們仍在努力弄清楚這是否算得上競爭上的勝利，看起來我們在微觀層面上的確取得了一些勝利。此外，我們還發現，越來越多原本自行處理薪資的客戶開始表示：「嘿，我要找一家線上薪資處理公司了。」因為 SurePayroll 的網站和產品受益於我們在聯邦政府方面所做的工作，例如薪資報告，這些報告幫助他們獲得了貸款，包括貸款豁免和許多網路研討會。所以我認為他們看到了 SurePayroll 和 Flex 的巨大潛力。所以我覺得我們在這方面也取得了一些進展。所以我認為總體而言，競爭環境——我認為目前為止我們還沒有看到任何重大的混亂，儘管確實出現了一些——我們看到並聽說了一些競爭對手的臨時解僱和裁員。但我認為我們之所以能夠取得成功，是因為我們擁有應對新冠疫情的強大工具，這些工具為客戶和潛在客戶提供了支持，尤其是那些可能第一次考慮外包的潛在客戶。

Okay. And then last one for me, just non-COVID question. On the election, are there any things in the policy agendas of the candidates for the upcoming elections that you're watching for that might create either opportunities or challenges for you?

好的。最後一個問題，與新冠疫情無關。關於即將到來的選舉，您認為候選人的政策議程中有哪些方面可能會為您帶來機會或挑戰？

Well, I wouldn't really...

嗯，我其實不會…

(inaudible) policies -- yes, go ahead.

（聽不清楚）政策－好的，繼續。

Sure. Well, I think always -- if there is a change in the leadership, that change tends to go back to more regulations. Now more regulations in general help us because there's more of a reason to outsource either HR or payroll for that matter. So I don't -- we don't know of -- nothing I've seen yet would say exactly what that opportunity would be. But I would -- typically, based on history, there's going to be more complexity, more regulations and therefore, it's going to be more difficult for businesses. I also think -- obviously, we're watching corporate taxes. That's more from -- not so much from a product and service opportunity but just from a -- because being a highly profitable company, we're obviously looking to see what will be the -- any tax impact that Biden has already talked about and so forth. So -- but from a product standpoint, frankly, typically, in a Democratic administration, we would have more regulations, and therefore, it would be fairly positive from a product standpoint. And I would also think that there's going to be a number of new rules coming out of recovering from COVID, and that will also make it more complicated for businesses to exist and to handle their employees, which will drive more demand for our services. And again, as we've said a number of times, the way the investments we've made to be able to really respond to a remote workforce, which, no matter who gets in, I think is a permanent part of our future, we've made, luckily, the right investments here that have really helped clients and will continue to help clients be remote -- handle remote working, and that, I think, is going to pay off for us going forward.

當然。嗯，我認為總是這樣——如果領導層發生變動，這種變動往往會導致監管力道加大。現在，更多的監管措施總體上對我們有利，因為這讓我們更有理由將人力資源或薪資管理外包出去。所以，我不知道——我們不知道——我目前看到的一切都無法確切地說出那會是一個怎樣的機會。但我認為——通常情況下，根據歷史經驗，情況會更加複雜，監管也會更加嚴格，因此，企業經營會更加困難。我也認為——很顯然，我們正在關注企業稅收問題。這更多是來自——與其說是產品和服務機會，不如說是——因為作為一家高利潤公司，我們顯然在關注拜登已經談到的任何稅收影響等等。所以——但坦白說，從產品角度來看，通常情況下，在民主黨執政期間，我們會有更多的監管，因此，從產品角度來看，這將是相當積極的。而且我認為，隨著新冠疫情的消退，將會推出許多新的規則，這將使企業生存和管理員工變得更加複雜，從而推動對我們服務的需求增加。再次強調，正如我們多次所說，我們為了真正應對遠距辦公模式而進行的投資，無論誰加入，我認為都將是我們未來不可或缺的一部分。幸運的是，我們在這裡進行了正確的投資，這些投資確實幫助了客戶，並將繼續幫助客戶遠距辦公——處理遠距工作，我認為這將在未來為我們帶來回報。

Your next question comes from the line of Samad Samana with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Samad Samana 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Efrain, maybe one on the retention side. I know you guys -- the 83% is a -- if I remember correctly, a unit retention number. If we thought about it on a net dollar retention basis...

埃弗雷恩，或許是留任方面的一個。我知道你們──83% 是個──如果我沒記錯的話，是單位留存率。如果我們從淨留存金額的角度來看…

At 4%.

佔4%。

You say at 4%?

你說4%？

Yes, revenues.

是的，是收入。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

To Marty's point, we also hit a record in terms of -- certainly, since we -- since I've been here, in terms of the level of revenue we've retained. And just to put a bow on that, Samad, that was really pretty extraordinary work by our service providers. And when I say the strength of our model, I think there is a tendency sometimes to think of that as just added cost in the model. You can't get to those numbers without those people on the front lines doing the work they do every single day. So can you get more efficient? Obviously, we've taken steps to be more efficient, but not in terms of people. We've decided that the infrastructure can be a lot more efficient than it is, and we've made that choice and we decided that the right thing to do in an environment where we expect the business to recover in the back half of the year is not to slash employees. That's not what we decided to do. And we decided to get very efficient in terms of what we're doing. And I think that in this year, it really has paid off. Now having said all of that, I will add a note of caution that Marty said earlier, which is, we need to go through the first quarter of the year to see that -- of the people who remain in, let's call it, suspended status at this stage, how many of them will come back and continue to process. We're optimistic because if you would have polled us when we started the process, we would have thought the number was going to be very high, and it's turning out to be lower, meaning there's fewer of our clients that are going along. So sorry for the lengthy response to the question, but I do think it's important to highlight that those things work together. And there is a role for tech services here done efficiently, and I think that our margins and our experiences prove that out.

正如馬蒂所說，就收入水平而言，我們也創下了紀錄——當然，自從我來到這裡以來，就我們所保留的收入水平而言，我們創下了紀錄。最後再補充一點，薩馬德，我們的服務提供者的工作真的非常出色。當我談到我們模型的優勢時，我認為人們有時會傾向於將其視為模型中增加的成本。如果沒有那些在前線日復一日辛勤工作的人們，你不可能達到這些數字。那麼，你還能提高效率嗎？顯然，我們已經採取措施提高效率，但不是針對人力方面。我們認為基礎設施可以比現在更有效率，我們已經做出了這個選擇，我們認為，在預計業務將在下半年復甦的環境下，正確的做法是不裁員。我們最終沒有那樣做。於是我們決定在工作上提高效率。我認為今年，這種努力真的得到了回報。說了這麼多，我還要補充一點馬蒂之前提到的謹慎之處，那就是，我們需要觀察今年第一季的情況，看看目前仍處於暫停狀態的人員中，有多少人會回來繼續接受審查。我們之所以樂觀，是因為如果在我們開始這個過程時進行民意調查，我們會認為這個數字會非常高，但結果卻較低，這意味著參與的客戶數量較少。很抱歉回覆這麼長，但我認為有必要強調這些因素是相互關聯的。高效的技術服務在這裡可以發揮作用，我認為我們的利潤率和經驗證明了這一點。

Yes. And I think I just -- I'd like to play up on that point because we haven't really made it that much that Efrain just brought up one thing and take it a step further. The interesting thing with our model is we've gone to an awful lot of automated self-service and automated responses through chatbots. We can answer over 200 questions in an automated fashion now, and it's made our service people much more productive. What we saw in the last 2 months was like a year-end for us, which those in the payroll business means your volumes are up like 25% because you're in -- typically, people have bonuses. They have a lot of questions. That's what happened in the last couple of months, April and May in particular, where we had very much higher volumes and longer calls because people had questions. So when everything is going well, we have the tools in place for you to do it quick and efficient, any way you want it. When you cannot get the answer and do something on an automated fashion because you don't understand the regulations or how to do something or how to handle a unique situation like COVID, we had 7/24 service -- experienced service providers that were there to answer the questions. And we got a lot of positive feedback about that.

是的。我覺得我應該——我想強調這一點，因為我們還沒有真正深入探討過，埃弗雷恩只是提出了一件事，然後我們想更進一步。我們模型的有趣之處在於，我們已經實現了大量的自動化自助服務和透過聊天機器人實現的自動回應。現在我們可以自動回答 200 多個問題，這大大提高了我們服務人員的工作效率。過去兩個月的情況對我們來說就像是年末一樣，對於從事薪資業務的人來說，這意味著業務量增長了 25% 左右，因為——通常情況下，人們都會拿到獎金。他們有很多問題。過去幾個月，特別是四月和五月，情況就是如此，我們的通話量大幅增加，通話時間也更長，因為人們有很多問題。所以，當一切順利時，我們已經為您準備了各種工具，讓您能夠快速且有效率地完成您想要的任何操作。當您因為不了解相關規定、不了解如何操作或不了解新冠疫情等特殊情況而無法獲得答案並自動完成某些操作時，我們提供 7/24 服務——經驗豐富的服務提供者隨時為您解答疑問。我們收到了很多正面的回饋。

A lot of competitors today have gone -- a lot of automated or have gone out of the country to provide support that is not at the levels that we've been providing the last couple of months. So it's really a shout out to our service providers who, when you need them and be 7/24/365, they're there, and it really paid off for us.

如今許多競爭對手已經——很多都實現了自動化，或者把業務轉移到了國外，無法提供我們過去幾個月一直提供的服務水平。所以，我要特別感謝我們的服務供應商，他們隨時待命，一年365天、一天24小時都提供服務，這真的讓我們受益匪淺。

Got you. That's very helpful. And then maybe just on $100 million of loans that have been processed by the partners that you mentioned, is there -- is Paychex -- how are you monetizing that? Is there a referral fee that Paychex gets? Is there -- is it just a service you're providing for your customers? How should we think about the path to monetization for that?

抓到你了。那很有幫助。那麼，就您提到的合作夥伴已經處理的 1 億美元貸款而言，Paychex 是如何獲利的呢？Paychex會收取推薦費用嗎？這僅僅是你為客戶提供的一項服務嗎？我們該如何考慮實現獲利的途徑？

Yes. It's not large, but we get a referral fee based on a loan that is established. And it's, I'd say, a relatively small amount, given our revenue and so forth -- a very small amount, given our revenue and so forth. But it was more of a service to our clients because a number of small businesses don't necessarily have relationships with banks. And what we were hearing from our clients is that, "Hey, I don't really have a relationship with a bank, and I can't get to the front of the line." And so we partnered with those 3 fintech companies, and obviously, it was a need that was out there, and provided a support to them. So small monetary value, but significant client service, I think.

是的。雖然金額不大，但我們會根據成功獲得的貸款獲得推薦費。而且，考慮到我們的收入等等，我認為這筆金額相對較小——考慮到我們的收入等等，這筆金額非常小。但這更多的是為我們的客戶提供的服務，因為許多小型企業不一定與銀行有業務往來。我們從客戶那裡聽到的是：「嘿，我跟銀行沒有建立任何關係，所以我沒法優先辦理業務。」 因此，我們與這三家金融科技公司建立了合作關係，顯然，這是市場存在的需求，我們為他們提供了支持。所以，雖然金額不大，但我覺得對客戶服務意義重大。

Your next question comes from the line of Kartik Mehta with North Coast Research.

你的下一個問題來自北海岸研究公司的 Kartik Mehta。

Marty and Efrain, you talked about second half obviously being better than the first half. And as you look at the business and, Efrain, as you're modeling it, is that based on kind of what you're seeing in terms of bookings and kind of what you're seeing in your stats? Or is that more based on just the experience that you guys have in this business and your expectations for how the business will trend?

馬蒂和埃弗雷恩，你們都說過下半場明顯比上半場好。埃弗雷恩，當你審視這項業務並進行建模時，你的建模是基於你看到的預訂情況和統計數據嗎？或者，這更多是基於你們在這個行業的經驗以及你們對產業發展趨勢的期望？

I think it's a little bit of both, Kartik. So I think that, obviously, when we started this whole journey several months ago, we have had an idea of what a recovery looks like. Once you hit bottom, when we got to mid-May, we said, "Hey, we have hit bottom." And how we're looking at how this progresses, I would say it's behaved pretty similarly to once we understood the depth of the drop, how we expected it to continue. Now what we're looking at monitoring, as I said before, we have 8 to 9 weeks of steadily improving metrics. We now are looking for a continuation. I think there've been a number of quotes on -- or questions on the call, does the spread of the infection and some closures, is that having an impact on results? We don't see it yet, but of course, we're monitoring that very carefully. But if current trends continue, and again, they don't necessarily -- it's not necessarily because they will, we think that the way we've laid out the year makes a lot of sense. So that continued improvement both on bookings, which we expect over the next several quarters; record high level of retention are positive; an environment where the value of our services provider -- our technology and our services provided has some ability to win in the marketplace, all of those things we think are going to build to the outlook that we've got, and we're optimistic about the remainder of the year.

我覺得兩者兼而有之，卡爾蒂克。所以我覺得，很顯然，當我們幾個月前開始這段旅程時，我們已經對復甦是什麼樣子有了一定的了解。到了五月中旬，我們觸底反彈，當時我們就說：「嘿，我們已經觸底了。」至於接下來的發展，我認為它的表現與我們之前了解跌幅後預期的走勢非常相似。正如我之前所說，我們現在關注的是，各項指標已經連續 8 到 9 週穩定改善。我們現在正在尋找後續發展方向。我認為電話會議上有很多關於感染蔓延和一些場所關閉是否對結果產生影響的引述或問題？我們目前還沒有看到這種情況，但我們當然會非常密切地關注此事。但如果目前的趨勢持續下去（當然，這種趨勢不一定會持續下去——這並不是說這種趨勢一定會繼續下去），我們認為我們今年的計畫安排是很有道理的。因此，我們預計未來幾季預訂量將持續改善；客戶留存率也將創歷史新高，這些都是正面的因素；此外，我們服務提供者的價值——我們的技術和服務——在市場上具有一定的競爭力，所有這些因素都將有助於我們實現目前的預期，我們對今年剩餘時間充滿信心。

Efrain, one of the more controversial numbers out there right now is the unemployment rate. And as you look at that rate, do you try to compare it to your business? And is there a way to say where the employment rate has to be to hit the numbers you think you can in the second half?

埃弗雷恩，目前最具爭議的數字之一就是失業率。當你查看這個比率時，你會嘗試將其與你的業務進行比較嗎？那麼，有沒有辦法確定就業率必須達到什麼水準才能在下半年實現你預期的目標呢？

Well, I think we certainly expect that there's going to be improvement starting certainly in the fall. So I think we're in an environment where we're seeing the same levels of elevated unemployment. In mid fall, I think that we'll have another conversation about what the impact of that is on plan. It's too early to call that. But -- and even economists disagree as to where things really are. I would say we look at that, we're informed by that, Kartik. But really, we're informed by our own data. We can tell week by week, frankly, daily, if we want to, how much people are paying employees. We know what the trend has been. We know what the recovery from the depths of the shock to where we are right now, and those trends are positive. Now again, there's no guarantee that they'll continue, but we feel that -- or we believe, looking at the data, that it looks like we're on a solid trend.

嗯，我認為我們當然預期情況會從秋季開始有所改善。所以我認為我們目前所處的環境是，失業率居高不下。我認為，秋季中期，我們會再次討論這會對計劃產生什麼影響。現在下結論還為時過早。但是——甚至連經濟學家對於事情的真相也存在分歧。我會說我們會關注這一點，我們會從中吸取信息，卡爾蒂克。但實際上，我們是根據自己的數據來做判斷的。坦白說，如果我們願意，我們可以按週、甚至按天知道人們給員工多少工資。我們知道目前的趨勢是什麼。我們知道從衝擊的深淵到現在的復甦歷程，這些趨勢都是正面的。當然，也不能保證這種情況會持續下去，但我們感覺──或者說，從數據來看，我們相信──我們正處於一個穩固的趨勢之中。

Yes. I think Efrain makes a great point, it's one piece of data. But there's so much noise in that unemployment number, particularly because it's kind of state -- with a state-by-state way -- procedures and the way they pull those numbers together, it's pretty dicey. We have a great sense, I think, even our small business index can -- as we got into it, could see -- and I think ADPs as well, there's issues with those kind of the data and the way you look at it, as we saw last month with some of these numbers just because of the way that they're done. Nothing was really set up for a shock like this in the way we -- it dropped so quickly. And if -- like if you look at our index, it was pretty flat month-to-month, the small business index. And then if you looked at paid employees, though, and the way they were measured, they were actually up 4%, it would have been an improvement of 4%. So you try to look at a lot of data. But as Efrain said, we have a lot of very good data these days on what's changing and where it's changing and how quickly. So we tend to rely more on our own than something like that.

是的。我認為埃弗雷恩說得很有道理，這只是一條數據而已。但是失業率數據中有很多幹擾因素，特別是由於各州採用不同的程序，以及他們匯總這些數據的方式，所以結果相當不確定。我認為，我們有一個很好的感覺，即使是我們的小型企業指數——正如我們深入研究後所看到的——而且我認為 ADP 也是如此，這類數據以及你看待它的方式都存在問題，就像我們上個月看到的一些數字一樣，僅僅是因為它們的計算方式。我們當時完全沒有預料到會發生這樣的衝擊——它下降得太快了。如果你看一下我們的指數，你會發現小企業指數的月度走勢相當穩定。但是，如果你看一下有薪員工，以他們的衡量方式來看，他們的實際成長率是 4%，也就是提高了 4%。所以你要嘗試查看大量數據。但正如埃弗雷恩所說，如今我們有很多非常好的數據，可以了解正在發生什麼變化、在哪裡發生變化以及變化的速度有多快。所以我們往往更傾向於依靠自己，而不是依賴其他途徑。

And then just one last question, Marty. As you entered this environment, how are you managing investing in the business, yet maintaining a margin -- operating margins where you're satisfied with the results?

最後一個問題，馬蒂。進入這個行業後，您是如何管理業務投資，同時又能維持利潤率——也就是讓您滿意的營運利潤率的？

Well, Kartik, it's always a challenge. But I think even when you go back to tax reform and you look at what happened there, some companies took that right to the bottom line. We worked with the Board to reinvest a substantial part of that back into -- some into the employees, but also into the development. And those IT investments, as we look back now, really were the right things to do that positioned us very well for remote workers, more self-service, online, things like our products we've rolled out here with HR Connect that allow clients to talk to their employees virtually through the app and be able to do electronic signatures. So we're looking to continue that investment. We made some -- a small number of reductions here in force, but like I said, it was under 2%. And when you look at IT development, that has continued to grow really, overall, the development side of IT and. Where we've always had savings over the last, frankly, 10 years or 11 years, we've invested them in IT development to be a real tech-generated service company, and that has paid off well. So that will continue. Our capitalized -- our capital, our investments look to be the same as last year. We're not looking to cut IT investments in the product that we're making.

卡爾蒂克，這始終是個挑戰。但我認為，即使回顧稅制改革，看看當時發生的事情，有些公司也把稅制改革直接影響了公司的利潤。我們與董事會合作，將其中相當一部分資金重新投入——一部分投入到員工身上，一部分投入發展。現在回過頭來看，這些 IT 投資確實是正確的做法，讓我們能夠更好地適應遠距辦公、更多自助服務、線上辦公室等需求，例如我們推出的 HR Connect 產品，它允許客戶透過該應用程式與員工進行虛擬溝通，並進行電子簽名。因此，我們計劃繼續進行這項投資。我們進行了一些裁員——人數不多，但正如我所說，裁員幅度不到 2%。而從IT開發的角度來看，整體而言，IT的開發方面確實一直持續成長。坦白說，過去 10 年或 11 年裡，我們一直都有積蓄，我們把這些積蓄投資到 IT 開發中，成為一家真正的技術驅動型服務公司，而這已經獲得了豐厚的回報。所以這種情況還會持續下去。我們的資本—我們的資本、我們的投資看起來與去年相同。我們並不打算削減我們正在開發的產品的IT投資。

Your next question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

The bookings question, I know a lot of people have asked about it already, but can we just clarify how did bookings or new sales come in for fiscal '20 versus expectations? And then as we look to fiscal '21, how different is that going to be? Because it sounds like we shouldn't assume a lot of new business starts retention, which should be higher, less switching, so is there going to be more selling into existing? Just trying to understand big picture of what bookings might look like and how it'll differ from last year.

關於預訂量的問題，我知道很多人已經問過了，但我們能否澄清一下 2020 財年的預訂量或新銷售額與預期相比如何？那麼，展望 2021 財年，情況又會有多大不同呢？因為聽起來我們不應該假設很多新業務的留存率會很高（應該更高），客戶流失率會更低，那麼是否會有更多的業務向現有客戶銷售呢？我只是想了解一下預訂情況的整體情況，以及它與去年有何不同。

Yes. I think I'll start, and I think through 9 months, we -- I think Efrain may have mentioned this, we looked pretty good, and we were pretty solid in our growth across pretty much all business lines and -- through the 9 months. And then as March, middle of March and -- into March and in April and May, a lot of that was just -- dried up and we were down. Yet when we look back at the fourth quarter, I was amazed at the number of units that we had continued to sell. And the strength, frankly, was -- a lot of the strength was SurePayroll, which can be sold -- pretty much all of it's sold online or over the telephone. And they did very well and continued very well in the fourth quarter. I think that was the issue of -- where not only were they getting a lot of halo effect from the things that we were doing in the -- what was available online, but also more prospects moving to an outsourcer on a small and on a micro basis. The mid-market through the 9 months was very strong. Mid-market, the product, all the product changes we've introduced have done very well. They certainly hurt a little in the fourth quarter because more of that is face-to-face, but I think they've really kind of maneuvered and learned how to sell online and very quickly. And then we've given them a lot of support, and they've done well. In the first quarter, we kind of expect the improvements that we're leaving fourth quarter with to kind of continue in the first. So it's not going to be a banner first quarter because everyone is still remote. But we have learned a lot of tricks of selling remotely and how to do better scheduling, how to do better remote, how to meet with a client if they want to be met with. And that is all kind of picking up steam. So I think first quarter will be okay. And then we think it will continue to pick up from there. But through the first 9 months, we had solid bookings, and we're pretty excited about those, if that helps.

是的。我想我會先說，我認為在過去的 9 個月裡，我們——我想 Efrain 可能提到過這一點——我們的表現相當不錯，我們在幾乎所有業務領域的增長都相當穩健——在過去的 9 個月裡。然後到了三月，三月中旬，一直到四月和五月，很多事情都停滯了，我們的處境也變得艱難。然而，當我們回顧第四季時，我驚訝地發現我們仍然售出瞭如此多的單位產品。坦白說，我們的優勢很大程度上在於 SurePayroll，它可以銷售——幾乎全部都是透過網路或電話銷售的。他們表現出色，並在第四節繼續保持了良好的狀態。我認為問題在於——他們不僅從我們在網路上所做的事情中獲得了很大的光環效應，而且更多的潛在客戶也開始以小型和微型企業的形式轉向外包商。過去九個月中端市場表現非常強勁。中端市場方面，我們的產品以及我們推出的所有產品改進都取得了非常好的效果。他們在第四季度確實受到了一些影響，因為第四季度更多的是面對面的銷售，但我認為他們真的已經很好地調整了策略，學會瞭如何在線銷售，而且速度非常快。然後我們給了他們很多支持，他們也做得很好。我們預計，第四季的進步將在第一季繼續保持。所以第一季不會有什麼亮眼的成績，因為大家還是都在遠距辦公。但是我們已經學到了很多遠距銷售的技巧，以及如何更好地安排日程、如何更好地進行遠距工作、如何在客戶想要見面時與他們見面。而這一切似乎都在加速發展。所以我認為第一季應該沒問題。然後我們認為它會繼續從那裡開始回升。但前 9 個月，我們的預訂情況一直不錯，我們對此感到非常興奮，希望這能有所幫助。

It does. It does. So as we look forward and spin around to margins, just looking at the guidance, I appreciate the first half, second half dynamics. But it looks like, at least initially, we'll see margins -- your implied margin guidance suggests that pretty much all the decline of revenue is going to flow through here to EBITDA. I know you have the savings or the payback from the geo shrinkage here. But is there anything else that's impacting margin beyond just the decremental margins of revenue? Do you follow my question? I don't know if I asked it well.

確實如此。確實如此。所以，當我們展望未來，轉而關注利潤率時，僅從業績指引來看，我很欣賞上半年和下半年的發展動態。但看起來，至少在初期，我們會看到利潤率——你隱含的利潤率指引表明，幾乎所有的收入下降都將反映在 EBITDA 上。我知道你們已經從地域性市場萎縮中節省了開支或獲得了回報。除了營收下降導致的利潤率下降之外，還有哪些因素會影響利潤率？你明白我的問題嗎？我不知道我問得有沒有清楚。

Yes. Yes. Thanks, Tien-Tsin. So yes, it's primarily revenue driven. And the impacts on a specific quarter are very highly dependent on the amount of revenue in that quarter. And in Q1, you have more, as you mentioned, of a flow-through of the margin impact. And then revenue starts to build. As you go through that, you see less of it. And you also see some of the other cost savings initiatives take hold as we go through the year. So yes, you're getting -- that's primarily what you're getting. And again, I just go back to one thing that I mentioned, one of the things that we were very careful about is we didn't want to come out of the -- out of this shock in a weaker state because we thought we needed -- we were going to be in a position where there was going to be opportunity in the back half of the year, and we were going to rebound. So rather than cutting a significant amount of head count in the first half of the year, what we decided, as Marty said, is to optimize the amount of head count that we had. So you'll see benefits as we go through the year from the actions that we're taking. But in Q1, you have a significant hit to margins because of the flow-through of the revenue.

是的。是的。謝謝你，田進。是的，這主要是由營收驅動的。對特定季度的影響很大程度上取決於該季度的收入金額。正如您所提到的，第一季利潤率受到的影響會更加明顯。然後收入開始成長。隨著你經歷這個過程，你看到的就越來越少了。隨著年數的增加，您還會看到其他一些成本節約措施逐漸落實。所以，是的，你得到的——這主要是你得到的。我再次強調我剛才提到的一點，我們非常謹慎的一點是，我們不想在這次衝擊之後變得虛弱，因為我們認為我們需要——我們會處於一個有利的位置，在下半年有機會反彈。因此，正如馬蒂所說，我們決定在上半年盡可能減少員工人數，而不是大幅削減員工人數，而是優化我們現有的員工人數。因此，隨著時間的推移，您將會看到我們採取的行動所帶來的好處。但是，由於收入的傳遞，第一季利潤率會受到很大影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Mark Marcon 與 Baird 的對話。

Just wanted to follow on with regards to the bookings. Could you just -- obviously, April and May would have been down because of COVID. But by the time we got to June and as things started to stabilize, the bookings, how did they compare relative to a year ago? Like what -- were they trending at 90% of prior year or 80%? How would you characterize the level of improvement?

我只是想跟進預訂事宜。您能說一下嗎——很明顯，由於新冠疫情，四月和五月的銷售額會下降。但到了六月份，情況開始穩定下來，預訂量與去年同期相比如何？例如，它們的趨勢是達到前一年的 90% 還是 80%？您如何評價這種進步程度？

Well, I think what we would say -- and frankly, when you looked at the whole year, we were fairly flat with last year for the whole fiscal year. So I don't want to portray April and May as too negative. They obviously were down substantially. But when you put it all together, we were probably flattish for the year and down slightly for overall par sold. And if you look at June, you see a sequential improvement over April and May. It's just -- it's still down, of course, over June last year, when you've got all your sales folks out and you can't -- it's hard. The hardest thing is, frankly, reaching prospects and be able to get their attention and so forth. I do think that will come back as businesses stabilize and get back open and people kind of feel like there's more of a new normal, we'll have -- that will continue to pick up. But we're expecting the first quarter will be certainly down from first quarter of last year. You just don't have the same environment yet.

嗯，我想我們會說——坦白說，如果你縱觀全年，我們整個財政年度的業績與前一年基本持平。所以我不想把四月和五月描繪得過於負面。他們的損失顯然很大。但綜合來看，我們今年的業績可能基本上持平，而總銷售額略有下降。如果你看六月的數據，你會發現比四月和五月有所改善。當然，銷售額仍然低於去年六月的水平，當時所有的銷售人員都外出工作，無法…這很困難。坦白說，最難的是接觸潛在客戶，並引起他們的注意等等。我認為隨著企業穩定下來並重新開業，人們逐漸感受到一種新的常態，這種情況會好轉——而且會繼續好轉。但我們預計第一季肯定會比去年第一季有所下降。你只是還沒有擁有同樣的環境。

Got it. And then for the budgeting for this year, are you anticipating that the sales force will basically stay flat? Or would it be -- would that be part of the optimization as well and potentially be a little bit more compact?

知道了。那麼，對於今年的預算，您是否預期銷售團隊的規模將基本保持不變？或者——這是否也是優化的一部分，並有可能使其更加緊湊一些？

No. I think it's fairly flat overall numbers. It's just we've shifted a little bit more to inside selling and telephonic selling because it's been working well. And -- but overall, I would say the head count numbers are about the same across the board. Not a lot of growth, we didn't necessarily think that we needed to grow the sales force, but I would say it's roughly about the same number. We didn't really go down either.

不。我認為整體數字相當平穩。只是我們稍微增加了一些內部銷售和電話銷售，因為這種方式效果很好。但總的來說，我認為各部門的人員數量大致相同。成長並不明顯，我們不一定認為需要擴大銷售團隊，但我認為人數大致保持不變。我們其實也沒跌下去。

Yes. Mark, just a little color to the point that Marty's making. What we found was in making that shift, you actually could get better productivity. And so it did not equate to the fact that we couldn't drive a higher sales activity even though head count was relatively flat year-over-year because of the -- really a tremendous amount of work that we've done on the digital marketing side and also on our ability to sell, as Marty said, virtually. We really are just in a different ball game now than we were 2, 3 years ago. And so you can operate with less field-based salespeople and more virtual and drive higher levels of activity.

是的。馬克，給馬蒂的觀點加點色彩。我們發現，做出這種轉變後，其實可以提高生產效率。因此，儘管員工人數較去年同期相對持平，但我們仍然能夠推動更高的銷售活動，這並非因為我們在數位行銷方面做了大量工作，也並非因為我們在虛擬銷售能力方面做了大量工作（正如馬蒂所說）。我們現在所處的境地與兩三年前截然不同了。因此，您可以減少現場銷售人員的數量，增加虛擬銷售人員的數量，並推動更高水準的業務成長。

That's great color. And then, Marty, you made a comment early in the discussion about how a lot of people perceive you as a small business payroll company but you've actually migrated clients up in terms of size and service level. I'm wondering if you could dimensionalize that to a greater extent. Like if we think about where Paychex was a couple of years ago, where you are today and where you think Paychex is going to be a few years from now, just in terms of client size, number of services that the average client takes on, how would you dimensionalize that?

顏色真好看。然後，馬蒂，你在討論初期曾說過，很多人認為你是一家小型企業工資單公司，但實際上，你的客戶在規模和服務水平方面都已經提升了。我想知道您是否可以更詳細地描述這個問題。例如，如果我們回顧一下 Paychex 幾年前的發展狀況，再看看它現在的狀況，以及你認為 Paychex 幾年後的發展前景，僅從客戶規模、平均客戶使用的服務數量等方面來看，你會如何衡量它的發展？

Well, I think, Mark, if you look at sort of at a high level, the company -- the revenues have doubled in the last 10 years now. So we hit $4 billion. And that was our goal was to be over $4 billion. We're not going to exactly hold it unfortunately for a few months here, but we hit $4 billion, up from $2 billion 10 years ago, if you now look at the distribution of that revenue, you can see that it has moved -- when we were back kind of payroll and HRS before we shifted to Management Solutions and PEO, payroll had fallen below 50% for the first time, maybe a year or so ago, and if you look at it now, I think the PEO business is 25% PEO and insurance is 25% of the business. It's continually growing and the payroll side is shifting -- payroll and other things in Management Solutions and I think that, that just shows that historically, we've taken the company from what was predominantly small business payroll, and the mid-market is growing faster now and we had a couple of years where that wasn't growing as well. The last couple of years, that has really picked up speed, even with more competition. We've got more products, much more of a technology company and a lot more self-service.

嗯，馬克，我認為，如果你從宏觀層面來看，這家公司的收入在過去 10 年裡翻了一番。所以我們達到了40億美元。我們的目標是超過40億美元。很遺憾，我們無法在接下來的幾個月裡維持這個數字，但我們實現了 40 億美元的營收，比 10 年前的 20 億美元大幅成長。如果你現在看一下這些收入的分佈情況，你會發現它已經發生了變化——在我們轉向管理解決方案和 PEO 之前，我們主要從事工資和人力資源服務，工資業務佔比首次跌破 50%，大概是在一年前左右。而現在，我認為 PEO 業務佔 25%，保險業務佔 25%。它一直在持續增長，工資方面也在發生變化——工資和管理解決方案中的其他方面，我認為這表明，從歷史上看，我們已經將公司從主要面向小型企業的工資業務發展到如今中端市場增長更快的階段，而我們曾有幾年中端市場增長緩慢。近兩年來，即使競爭加劇，這種趨勢也發展得更快了。我們擁有更多產品，更像科技公司，提供更多自助服務。

And when you look at the size of the offerings from learning management to Pay-on-Demand to HR connection and the mobility mapping of 5 Star App, I think it's just -- the company is much more technology and mid-market -- small and mid-market company. We're not going to leave small, but mid-market is going to become a much faster-growing and the PEO and HR side has certainly been a much faster and growing business. So when I think of Paychex as the original question, in all our 5 years, sometimes our brand still, obviously, having been in business almost 50 years. The brand is still "oh, yes, they're a small business payroll company." Well, that's really not true. We're much more of a HR company and the PEO, ASO insurances that we offer is a fast-growing piece of the business. It's now, as I said, just in our financials, 25% of the revenue. And so I hope that helps. I mean that's kind of how I see it dimensioning. And HR, the definition of HR has changed quite dramatically and also will change dramatically now with COVID and what that means. And I think we're well positioned to support that changing definition and need for clients of a larger size. I don't think we're going to -- we're not going to leave the small business. That's still a great opportunity to continue to grow. But that 20 to 100 in particular has really picked up steam for what they need and the revenue per client is obviously picked up as well as they bought more products for their -- to be competitive with each other as clients in their markets.

當你看到從學習管理到按需付費到人力資源連接以及 5 Star App 的行動應用程式映射等產品規模時，我認為這家公司更像是一家面向中小市場的科技公司。我們不會放棄小市場，但中端市場將會發展得更快，而 PEO 和人力資源方面無疑已經是一個發展得更快、更快速的業務領域。所以，當我想到 Paychex 最初的問題時，在我們 5 年的時間裡，有時我們的品牌仍然，顯然，我們已經經營了近 50 年。這個品牌仍然給人一種「哦，是的，他們是一家小型企業薪資管理公司」的印象。但事實並非如此。我們更像是一家人力資源公司，我們提供的 PEO 和 ASO 保險業務是公司業務中快速成長的一部分。正如我剛才所說，目前僅從我們的財務數據來看，就佔收入的 25%。希望這能有所幫助。我的意思是，我大概就是這樣理解它的尺寸設計的。而人力資源，其定義已經發生了相當大的變化，而且隨著新冠疫情及其帶來的影響，也將發生巨大的變化。我認為我們已做好充分準備，以滿足客戶規模不斷擴大的需求，並適應這種不斷變化的定義。我認為我們不會——我們不會離開小企業。那仍然是一個繼續發展的絕佳機會。但尤其那 20 到 100 家客戶，他們的需求確實得到了極大的滿足，而且每位客戶的收入也明顯提高了，因為他們購買了更多產品，以便在各自的市場中與其他客戶競爭。

That's great. And then can I just ask one last small detail question? Just with regards to the first half guidance and particularly the first quarter guidance as it relates to the PEO side, for down high single-digit to low double digit. Part of that is just a function of the reduced salaries that the worksite employees are getting, correct?

那太棒了。最後，我可以問最後一個小細節問題嗎？就上半年業績指引，特別是第一季與 PEO 業務相關的業績指引而言，預計下降幅度將達到個位數高點至兩位數低點。部分原因在於工地員工的薪水降低了，對嗎？

That's correct. That's part of it. Yes. You got it, Mark. Yes. That's correct.

沒錯。這是其中的一部分。是的。明白了，馬克。是的。沒錯。

And so when we're thinking about it more from a unit perspective, it would be more muted than that?

所以，如果我們從單元的角度來看這個問題，它的效果就會比這更弱？

Yes, much more muted than that. You're right.

是的，比那安靜得多。你說得對。

Our final question comes from the line of Pete Christiansen with Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Pete Christiansen。

I have 2 connected questions. From your multi-location client employers, are you seeing any footprint shrinkage there? And then there was a vertical last week in the journal, I think I was speaking more to the enterprise side, that some furloughs are turning more into permanent headcount reductions. The basis of the 2 questions is really to ask, if you are seeing any early signs, secondary impacts from the weaker economy, are you starting to see that flow through some of your KPIs?

我有兩個相關的問題。從您擁有多個辦公地點的客戶雇主來看，您是否發現他們的辦公室出現萎縮的情況？然後，上週期刊上還有一篇專題文章，我覺得我當時更多是在談論企業方面，文章指出一些臨時解僱正在演變成永久性裁員。這兩個問題的基礎實際上是要問：你是否看到了經濟疲軟帶來的任何早期跡像或次要影響，你是否開始看到這種影響體現在你的一些關鍵績效指標中？

Yes. With the first one, I don't think -- like in multistate employers, we really have not seen that. I haven't seen anything that stands out so that they are reducing their footprint yet. That is not a majority of our clients, certainly, but we have not seen any trend yet. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if more are -- like we're doing, reducing our physical footprint and having more work from home and so forth, but that certainly wouldn't surprise me, but we haven't seen much of a trend there. And then the second question, Efrain, was -- can you repeat that second one? Sorry.

是的。對於第一種情況，我認為——就像跨州雇主一樣，我們還沒有真正看到這種情況。我還沒有看到任何明顯的跡象表明他們在減少碳足跡方面有所作為。當然，這並非我們客戶的大多數，但我們目前尚未看到任何趨勢。如果有更多公司也像我們一樣減少實體辦公場所的使用，多在家工作等等，我不會感到驚訝，但這肯定不會讓我感到意外，但我們還沒有看到這方面的趨勢。埃弗雷恩，第二個問題是──你能再說一次第二個問題嗎？對不起。

Sure. Yes. It was about furloughs to more promo...

當然。是的。內容涉及從臨時裁員到更多晉升…

Yes, sorry. Haven't really seen -- haven't seen that yet, although the checks are down. So as we've talked about, we're seeing an improvement in checks that -- we're seeing an improvement from the decrease in checks. So -- but the checks are still down. So yes, there's fewer checks. Have they -- are they furloughed employees or permanently out? I think it's a little bit too early to see that yet. Efrain, anything -- I don't...

是的，抱歉。還沒真正看到——雖然支票數量減少了，但我還沒看到。正如我們之前討論過的，我們看到支票數量減少，情況有所改善。所以——但是支票數量仍然不足。所以，是的，檢查次數減少了。他們是暫時停職的員工還是永久離職的員工？我覺得現在下結論還太早。埃弗雷恩，任何事——我都不…

No. I would say that what we saw early on was that small businesses and midsized businesses tend to make an -- take an action on employee initially and then hire back as opposed to keep them furloughed. I think in the enterprise space, you probably see more furlough action than we see in our client base. And the trends, as Marty was saying earlier, the trends we've been seeing are the opposite, which is we've seen people adding back at this point as opposed to reducing. So it's buried in that number. But that number is looking more positive.

不。我認為我們早期看到的是，小型企業和中型企業傾向於先對員工採取行動，然後再重新僱用他們，而不是讓他們繼續休假。我認為在企業領域，你可能會看到比我們客戶群中更多的臨時裁員措施。正如馬蒂之前所說，我們看到的趨勢恰恰相反，那就是人們在這個時候都在增加消費，而不是減少消費。所以它就藏在這個數字裡。但這個數字看起來更樂觀了。

That's helpful.

那很有幫助。

And there are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題了。

Okay. Thank you. At this point, we will close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast of this conference call, it will be archived for approximately 30 days. I do thank you on behalf of Efrain and I, thank you for your time to participate in our fourth quarter and year-end press release conference call and for your interest in Paychex. Have a great day, and please stay safe.

好的。謝謝。至此，我們將結束通話。如果您有興趣重播本次電話會議的網路直播，它將存檔約 30 天。我謹代表 Efrain 和我本人，感謝您抽出時間參加我們的第四季度和年終新聞發布電話會議，並感謝您對 Paychex 的關注。祝您今天過得愉快，請注意安全。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。