沛齊 (PAYX) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Lisa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Paychex Third Quarter Earnings Conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Martin Mucci, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

早安.我是Lisa，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表Paychex公司歡迎各位參加第三季財報電話會議。 （接線生提示）現在，我將把電話轉交給總裁兼執行長Martin Mucci先生。請您發言，先生。

Thank you. And thank you for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Third Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings Release. Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning before the market opened, we released our financial results for the third quarter ended February 29, 2020. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations web page.

謝謝。感謝您參加我們關於Paychex 2020財年第三季財報發布的討論。今天與我一同出席的是我們的財務長Efrain Rivera。在今天上午市場開盤前，我們發布了截至2020年2月29日的第三季財務業績。您可以在我們的投資者關係網頁上查看這份財報。

Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next few days. And this teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 1 month.

我們的10-Q表格將在未來幾天內提交給美國證券交易委員會。本次電話會議正在透過網路直播，並將存檔於我們的網站上，保留約1個月。

I will start today's call with an overview of how we are responding to COVID-19 and then review business highlights for the third quarter. And Efrain will review our third quarter financial results and discuss our guidance for fiscal 2020, including our current thinking and the potential impacts of COVID-19 on our business. And then we'll open it up for your questions.

今天，我將首先概述我們應對新冠疫情的措施，然後回顧第三季的業務亮點。接下來，Efrain 將回顧我們第三季的財務業績，並討論我們對 2020 財年的展望，包括我們目前的想法以及新冠疫情對我們業務的潛在影響。之後，我們將開放提問環節。

First and foremost, I want to address the evolving situation we are currently facing with COVID-19. Our #1 priority is the safety and well-being of our employees and serving our clients and their employees. Our business continuity plan was implemented, and our teams are working around the clock to ensure that we take the necessary steps to ensure our employees' safety, while continuing to support our clients through this unprecedented time. Early on, we instituted travel restrictions and began to reduce the number of employees working in our offices. At this time, all employees unless designated as critical on-site person, that's less than 5%, are now working from home. And our service metrics and client response time has been excellent. In fact, our average answer performance yesterday was 7 seconds. Extremely proud of this team and the work they've done in a very fast period of time.

首先，我想談談我們目前面臨的新冠肺炎疫情情勢。我們首要的任務是保障員工的安全和福祉，並為我們的客戶及其員工提供服務。我們已啟動業務連續性計劃，團隊正在日以繼夜地工作，確保採取必要措施保障員工安全，同時繼續在這個前所未有的時期為客戶提供支援。疫情初期，我們實施了出行限制，並開始減少在辦公室工作的員工人數。目前，除被指定為關鍵現場人員（佔比不到5%）的員工外，所有員工都在家工作。我們的服務指標和客戶回應時間都非常出色。事實上，我們昨天的平均反應時間僅為7秒。我為團隊及其在如此短的時間內所取得的成就感到無比自豪。

I'm incredibly proud of how the whole leadership team and employees have responded to this situation. Because of their hard work and efforts, we've been able to complete all of these transitions without any service disruptions. We continue to help our clients navigate the significant amount of information and changing regulations from state and federal governments, including the Families First Coronavirus Response Act. Our compliance team also remains in contact with federal, state and local government authorities on a real-time basis to ensure we are aware of and offering support and ideas on any new regulations or support initiatives related to COVID-19 that could impact our clients.

我為整個領導團隊和員工應對此次疫情的方式感到無比自豪。正因為有了他們的努力和努力，我們才能順利完成所有過渡工作，且未造成任何服務中斷。我們將繼續幫助客戶應對來自州政府和聯邦政府的大量資訊和不斷變化的法規，包括《家庭優先應對新冠病毒法案》。我們的合規團隊也與聯邦、州和地方政府部門保持即時聯繫，以確保我們了解並就任何可能影響客戶的與新冠疫情相關的新法規或支援措施提供支援和建議。

So far, we've seen minimal changes in our key metrics. However, with the expanding shutdowns of businesses throughout the nation, we do expect that this will be a particularly challenging time for small and midsized businesses. This will have impact on our results, and Efrain will provide some color when he discusses our current outlook.

目前來看，我們的關鍵指標變化甚微。然而，隨著全國各地企業停業規模的擴大，我們預期中小企業將面臨特別嚴峻的挑戰。這將對我們的業績產生影響，Efrain 將在討論我們目前的展望時對此進行詳細闡述。

The federal government has taken a number of steps to stabilize these issues and is considering more relief actions as we speak. I'm sure you're all aware of the at least handshake agreement last night, and we're working through those detailed changes as we see how the vote and the presidential approval goes probably today. Small businesses in particular are in need of aid to be able to stay in business and pay their employees. The speed in which relief actions are put in place will impact the severity of the economic impacts resulting from this virus.

聯邦政府已採取多項措施穩定局勢，並且正在考慮更多紓困措施。我相信大家都知道昨晚達成的初步協議，我們正在根據投票結果和總統批准情況（可能在今天）敲定具體的修改方案。特別是小型企業，它們急需援助才能維持營運並支付員工薪水。救助措施的落實速度將直接影響疫情對經濟造成的衝擊程度。

Last weekend, we were part of a small group that sent a letter to Congress supporting the small business loan program to help businesses continue to pay their employees, and offered our assistance as a payroll processor to do that in the most effective and timely way. We continue to monitor leading indicators to gauge the changes in the small business environment.

上週末，我們與一個小組共同致函國會，支持小型企業貸款計劃，以幫助企業繼續支付員工薪水。我們也表示，作為一家薪資處理公司，我們願意以最有效、最及時的方式協助企業完成這項工作。我們將持續關注各項領先指標，以評估小型企業經營環境的變化。

We believe we are well prepared to navigate our way through these uncertain times. The significant investments we've made in our technology, and in particular our mobile app and our expanded product and features and our service model options, allow us to support our clients in any environment. And as you are well aware, we maintain a strong balance sheet and cash position. We will continue to focus on our business objectives and invest in our people and our clients. This is a rapidly evolving situation but we will keep you informed on the expected impacts as events continue to unfold.

我們相信，我們已做好充分準備，以應對當前充滿不確定性的時期。我們對技術，特別是行動應用程式、擴展的產品功能以及服務模式選擇的巨額投資，使我們能夠在任何環境下為客戶提供支援。如您所知，我們保持著穩健的資產負債表和現金流。我們將繼續專注於業務目標，並持續投資於員工和客戶。當前情勢瞬息萬變，我們將隨著事態發展及時向您通報預期影響。

Now I will update you on our business and financial results for the third quarter, which reflect good progress on our key initiatives.

現在我將向大家報告我們第三季的業務和財務業績，這些業績反映出我們在關鍵舉措方面取得了良好進展。

Total revenue growth was 7% for the quarter. Management Solutions revenue grew 6%, and PEO and Insurance Solutions revenues grew 10%.

本季總營收成長7%。管理解決方案收入成長6%，PEO和保險解決方案收入成長10%。

Through the third quarter, we have continued to see strong execution in operations with record high Net Promoter Scores and client retention. In addition, we have had strong results in our virtual sales divisions, digital marketing efforts and mid-market sales through the selling season.

第三季度，我們的營運執行力持續強勁，淨推薦值和客戶留存率均創歷史新高。此外，在整個銷售季，我們的虛擬銷售部門、數位行銷和中階市場銷售也取得了顯著業績。

As we've discussed on previous calls, this fiscal year, we had a slower start than anticipated on the integration of Oasis. We believe we have addressed these issues in sales. We are now fully staffed and have a new leadership team in place. For service, staffing levels are stabilized. And the focus can now -- continues to be on servicing our clients with less need to work on integration of the clients into the platform.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的，本財年Oasis整合的開局比預期要慢。我們相信，銷售方面的問題已經解決。目前，我們的人員配備齊全，新的領導團隊也已到位。服務方面，人員配置也已穩定。現在，我們可以將工作重心放在服務客戶上，而無需再花費大量精力在客戶平台整合上。

The business has strong fundamentals that will drive growth over the long term. And we remain very positive about the continued strong demand for HR and insurance support and PEO services, particularly in this difficult environment.

該業務基本面強勁，將推動其長期成長。我們仍然非常看好市場對人力資源和保險支援以及專業雇主組織（PEO）服務的持續強勁需求，尤其是在當前充滿挑戰的環境下。

As the largest 401(k) record keeper in the U.S., Paychex was prepared to respond to the SECURE Act, which was enacted in December of 2019. This legislation provides incentives for employers to offer retirement savings plans and provisions to improve savings for millions of Americans. With our strong expertise in retirement plans and our award-winning retirement services participant portal, we are well positioned to assist small and midsized businesses and their employees as they navigate this new legislation and plan for retirement.

作為美國最大的401(k)計畫記錄保管機構，Paychex已做好充分準備應對2019年12月頒布的《安全退休法案》（SECURE Act）。該法案旨在激勵雇主提供退休儲蓄計劃，並制定相關條款以改善數百萬美國人的儲蓄狀況。憑藉我們在退休計畫領域的深厚專業知識以及屢獲殊榮的退休服務參與者入口網站，我們能夠為中小企業及其員工提供強有力的支持，幫助他們了解並遵守這項新法案，並做好退休規劃。

We launched Pay-on-Demand in December, which improves the employee experience by offering them flexible access to wages they have already earned before payday, helping them manage their personal cash flow. This is a valuable tool for employers to help attract and retain talent. Other companies in the industry offer similar services on a smaller scale, but our solution is unique in that it provides our clients with flexible payment options, including direct deposit, pay card and digital payment into Amazon or PayPal accounts. We also believe that Pay-on-Demand will see increased usage in this current environment, with employers needing a more flexible workforce that will need much more flexible pay options and probably more immediate pay.

我們在去年12月推出了按需支付服務，讓員工可以在發薪日之前靈活提取已賺取的工資，從而改善他們的體驗，幫助他們更好地管理個人現金流。對雇主而言，這無疑是吸引和留住人才的寶貴工具。業內其他公司也提供類似服務，但規模較小。而我們的解決方案獨樹一幟，為客戶提供靈活的支付方式，包括直接存款、薪資卡以及亞馬遜或PayPal帳戶的電子支付。我們相信，在當前環境下，按需支付服務的使用率將會顯著提升。雇主需要一支更靈活的員工隊伍，而這支隊伍也需要更靈活的支付方式，並且可能需要更快捷的支付方式。

We were excited to launch the first of our wearable apps as well, which we demonstrated in October at HR Tech. Paychex Time for the Apple Watch was launched in January for Flex customers. This allows clients, employees the flexibility and convenience of punching in and out on their Apple Watch. We also launched Paychex Flex Help Center, which provides dozens of training resources and how-to tutorials for assistance using Flex technology from within the application itself. Help Center allows customers to access help materials that are relevant and easy to consume via their individual preferred learning method, whether that is video tutorial, step-by-step instructions or chat.

我們很高興地宣布推出首款穿戴式裝置應用，並於10月份在HR Tech大會上進行了演示。 Paychex Time for Apple Watch已於1月面向Flex用戶正式上線。這款應用程式讓顧客和員工能夠靈活且方便地使用Apple Watch進行上下班打卡。此外，我們也推出了Paychex Flex幫助中心，其中包含數十種訓練資源和操作教學課程，幫助使用者直接在應用程式內使用Flex技術。幫助中心允許用戶透過他們偏好的學習方式（例如視訊教學、逐步說明或線上聊天）存取相關且易於理解的幫助資料。

The latest product releases included significant enhancements to existing features, which continue to add value by making things simple for our clients and allowing users flexibility and choice. These enhancements include electronic signature capabilities in our document management tool, improved visibility into labor cost and employee data with live reports, and additional integrations with some of the top HR finance, time and attendance and benefit solutions in our Paychex integrations solution. While Flex, Paychex Flex, does provide a full suite of HR solutions, the open platform allows customers the flexibility they may need to integrate with other tools if they so choose or if they already have them and don't want to switch out of them.

最新產品版本對現有功能進行了重大改進，透過簡化客戶操作並賦予使用者靈活性和選擇權，持續提升產品價值。這些改進包括文件管理工具中的電子簽名功能、透過即時報告增強勞動力成本和員工資料的可視性，以及透過 Paychex 整合解決方案與一些頂級人力資源財務、考勤和福利解決方案的整合。雖然 Flex（Paychex Flex）提供了一套完整的人力資源解決方案，但其開放平台也為客戶提供了所需的靈活性，方便他們根據需要整合其他工具，或者在他們已經擁有這些工具且不想更換的情況下繼續使用。

Products like learning management services with online training, electronic signature capabilities of document management will support the needs of clients in this time of remote workforces. Our real-time payments offering was introduced -- will be introduced in April. We believe we are one of the first to offer this capability to customers. And this will allow employers to pay employees faster, which can help attract talent can also help quickly resolve any issues with payroll.

學習管理服務（包含線上培訓）、文件管理的電子簽名功能等產品將滿足客戶在遠距辦公時代的需求。我們的即時支付服務已於四月推出，我們相信我們是首批為客戶提供此功能的公司之一。這將使雇主能夠更快地支付員工薪資，有助於吸引人才，並快速解決任何薪資問題。

Our technology roadmap continues to focus on the area of emerging technologies such as wearables, real-time payments, product integration options, data analytics and AI, all of which will play an important role in helping clients in this current environment.

我們的技術路線圖繼續專注於穿戴式裝置、即時支付、產品整合選項、數據分析和人工智慧等新興技術領域，所有這些都將在當前環境下為客戶發揮重要作用。

We are proud that Paychex' commitment to technology innovation has been recognized by industry experts. Our Flex -- our Paychex Flex Assistant was selected as a Stevie Award winner for Best Use of Technology and Customer Service. Flex Assistant answers over 250 questions covering the breadth and depth of the Paychex payroll and HR suite. What differentiates our technology is that it seamlessly connects to a live specialist in real time if the user wants more assistance. And the entire bot transaction is visible to that specialist, so no repetition is needed. Both Paychex and SurePayroll also received Stevie Awards for our excellent customer service.

我們非常自豪Paychex在技術創新方面的投入獲得了行業專家的認可。我們的Flex助手－Paychex Flex Assistant榮獲Stevie獎「最佳技術應用與客戶服務獎」。 Flex Assistant可以回答超過250個問題，涵蓋Paychex薪資和人力資源套件的各個方面。我們技術的獨特之處在於，如果用戶需要更多幫助，它可以即時無縫連接到真人客服。而且，整個機器人互動過程對客服人員可見，無需重複操作。 Paychex和SurePayroll也憑藉著卓越的客戶服務榮獲了Stevie獎。

As a critical business partner for many of our clients, we pride ourselves on doing business with integrity. It is ingrained in our corporate culture and very evident in the last few weeks as we quickly implemented our business continuity plans for our clients and employees. I'm extremely proud that Paychex has once again been recognized by Ethisphere as one of the 2020 world's most ethical companies, the 12th time we received this recognition.

作為眾多客戶的重要業務夥伴，我們始終秉持誠信經營的原則。誠信已深深融入我們的企業文化，並在過去幾週內得到了充分體現，我們迅速為客戶和員工實施了業務連續性計劃。我非常自豪地宣布，Paychex 再次榮獲 Ethisphere 頒發的「2020 年全球最具商業道德企業」稱號，這已是我們第 12 次獲此殊榮。

And in summary as we navigate these unprecedented times, we continue to support our clients, our employees, our communities and our shareholders. We have invested heavily in making our technology solutions and service flexible and mobile. And we are more prepared than ever to handle this current environment.

總而言之，在應對這場前所未有的挑戰之際，我們將繼續支持我們的客戶、員工、社區和股東。我們已投入巨資，使我們的技術解決方案和服務更加靈活便捷。我們比以往任何時候都更有信心應對當前的環境。

I would like to thank our IT, sales, service, compliance, marketing and HR teams, who have worked diligently to ensure regular communication to our employees and our clients and that all employees have the equipment they need to work remotely and stay connected with each other and our clients. Also, thank you to our employees who have maintained diligence and flexibility during these transitions in the way we all work.

我要感謝我們的IT、銷售、服務、合規、行銷和人力資源團隊，他們兢兢業業地確保與員工和客戶的定期溝通，並確保所有員工都擁有遠端辦公所需的設備，以便彼此保持聯繫並與客戶保持聯繫。同時，我也要感謝所有員工，在工作方式轉變的過程中，他們始終保持著勤勉和靈活。

I will now turn the call over to Efrain Rivera to review our financial results for the third quarter. Efrain?

現在我將把電話交給埃弗雷恩·裡維拉，讓他來回顧我們第三季度的財務表現。埃弗雷恩？

Thanks, Marty. Good morning. I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events. Such involve risks. Please refer to the customary disclosures in our earnings release. In addition, I'll periodically refer to non-GAAP measures such as EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share. Again, refer to the press release.

謝謝，馬蒂。早安.我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議將包含一些關於未來事件的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及風險。請參閱我們盈利報告中的慣例揭露資訊。此外，我會不時提及一些非GAAP指標，例如EBITDA、調整後淨利和調整後稀釋每股盈餘。同樣，請參閱新聞稿。

Before I start, I hope that as we speak, you all are safe and in good health. That's the most important thing at times like this. If you have loved ones who are affected by the virus and its impacts, please accept our thoughts and prayers for you and for your family. Being human at this time is the most important thing we can do.

在開始之前，我衷心希望此刻大家都平安健康。在這樣的時刻，這才是最重要的。如果您有親人受到病毒及其影響，請接受我們對您和您家人的慰問和祈禱。在這個時候，我們能做的最重要的事情就是保持人性的光輝。

So now let's talk finance. I'll start by providing some of the key highlights for the quarter and then follow up with some greater detail in certain areas. I'll wrap with a review of fiscal 2020 outlook and some high-level commentary on fiscal 2021. Yes, some high-level commentary on fiscal 2021, stay tuned, based on preliminary looks into next fiscal year. Total revenue as you saw grew 7% for the third quarter to $1.1 billion. Oasis contributed about 1% to this growth.

現在我們來談談財務方面。首先，我將介紹本季的一些關鍵亮點，然後針對某些領域進行更詳細的闡述。最後，我會回顧2020財年的展望，並對2021財年做一些概括性的評論。是的，我會對2021財年做一些概括性的評論，敬請期待，這些評論是基於對下一財年的初步分析。正如您所看到的，第三季總收入成長了7%，達到11億美元。 Oasis貢獻了約1%的成長。

Expenses increased 5% to the third quarter to $673 million. Increases in compensation costs and PEO direct insurance costs contributed to total expense growth, partially driven by the acquisition of Oasis. Op income increased 10% to $470 million. Op margin was 41.1% for the third quarter compared to 40.1% for the third quarter of fiscal year '19.

第三季支出成長5%至6.73億美元。薪酬成本和PEO直接保險成本的增加導致總支出成長，部分原因是收購Oasis公司。營業收入成長10%至4.7億美元。第三季營業利益率為41.1%，而2019財年第三季為40.1%。

EBITDA increased 8% to $520 million. EBITDA margin was 45.6% compared to 45% for the same period last year. Very strong results. Other expense net for the quarter of $6 million includes interest expense related to long-term borrowings. Our effective income tax was 23.6% for the third quarter compared to 23.7% for the same period last year.

息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 成長 8% 至 5.2 億美元。 EBITDA 利潤率為 45.6%，與去年同期的 45% 基本持平。業績表現非常強勁。本季其他淨支出為 600 萬美元，其中包括與長期借款相關的利息支出。第三季實際所得稅率為 23.6%，與去年同期的 23.7% 基本持平。

Net income and adjusted net income for the third quarter both increased 9% to $355 million and $351 million respectively. Diluted earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share each increased 9% to 98% -- $0.98, sorry, per share and $0.97 per share respectively. We received approximately $0.01 of benefit from stock-based comp payments during the third quarter, which is included for GAAP but excluded in our adjusted diluted EPS.

第三季淨利和調整後淨利均成長9%，分別達到3.55億美元和3.51億美元。稀釋後每股盈餘和調整後每股盈餘均成長9%，分別為每股0.98美元和0.97美元。第三季我們收到了約0.01美元的股票選擇權激勵，該項收益已計入GAAP準則下的每股收益，但未計入調整後的稀釋後每股收益。

Let me provide some additional color in selected areas. Service revenue increased 7% for the third quarter to $1.1 billion. Within service revenue, Management Solutions revenue increased 6% to $850 million. PEO and Insurance Solutions increased 10% to $272 million. So you saw through the third quarter, continued strong performance on Management Solutions. This is primarily driven by increases in our client base across many of our services along with growth in revenue per client. Revenue per client improved as a result of higher price realization, increased penetrants of our suite of solutions particularly retirement services, time and attendance and HR outsourcing. PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue growth of 10% was driven by the growth in clients across our PEO businesses. Insurance Solutions revenue benefited from an increase in the number of health and benefit applicants, partially offset, as we've been saying all year, by the impact of softness in workers' compensation premiums.

讓我就某些方面再補充一些細節。第三季服務營收成長7%，達到11億美元。在服務收入中，管理解決方案收入成長6%，達到8.5億美元。 PEO（專業雇主組織）和保險解決方案收入成長10%，達到2.72億美元。如您所見，第三季管理解決方案業務持續強勁成長。這主要得益於我們眾多服務客戶群的成長以及每位客戶收入的成長。每位客戶收入的成長源自於更高的價格實現率，以及我們全套解決方案（尤其是退休服務、考勤和人力資源外包）滲透率的提高。 PEO和保險解決方案收入成長10%，主要得益於PEO業務客戶數量的成長。保險解決方案收入受益於健康和福利申請人數的增加，但正如我們全年所強調的，部分增長被工傷賠償保險費疲軟的影響所抵消。

Interest on funds held for clients decreased 7% for the third quarter primarily as a result of lower interest rates earned, partially offset by higher average interest -- investment balances, I should say, and realized gains. Funds held for clients average investment balances were impacted by wage inflation and increases within our client base offset by changes in client base mix and timing of collections and remittances. These results obviously do not include the impact of two March rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

第三季客戶資金利息下降7%，主要原因是實際收益利率降低，但部分被平均利息（更準確地說是投資餘額）和已實現收益的增加所抵銷。客戶資金平均投資餘額受到薪資上漲和客戶群成長的影響，但被客戶群結構的變化以及收款和匯款時間的變化所抵消。顯然，這些結果並未包含聯準會3月兩次降息的影響。

Turning to our investment portfolio. We continue to invest in high-quality credit securities. Long-term portfolios have an average yield of 2.1% and average duration of 3.1 years. Combined portfolios have earned an average rate of return of 1.8% for the third quarter, down from 2% last year.

接下來談談我們的投資組合。我們持續投資於優質信貸證券。長期投資組合的平均報酬率為2.1%，平均久期為3.1年。綜合投資組合第三季的平均報酬率為1.8%，低於去年同期的2%。

Now year-to-date. Total revenue increased 12% to $3.1 billion. Service revenue increased 12%, with Management Solutions reflecting growth of 6% to $2.3 billion and PEO and Insurance Solutions reflecting growth of 36% to $763 million. Oasis contributed approximately 28% to the growth. Interest on funds held for clients grew 6% to $62 million.

今年迄今為止，總收入成長12%，達到31億美元。服務收入成長12%，其中管理解決方案成長6%，達到23億美元；PEO和保險解決方案成長36%，達到7.63億美元。 Oasis貢獻了約28%的成長。客戶資金利息收入成長6%，達到6200萬美元。

Operating income increased 10% to $1.2 billion. Net income and diluted earnings per share each increased 9% to $877 million and $2.43 per share respectively. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 8% to $863 million and $2.39 per share respectively.

營業收入成長10%至12億美元。淨利和攤薄後每股收益均成長9%至8.77億美元和2.43美元。調整後淨利和調整後稀釋後每股收益均成長8%至8.63億美元和2.39美元。

Let me talk about our financial position, which I think is really, really important in a time like this. It remains obviously very, very strong with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of $930 million as of February 29, 2020.

我想談談我們的財務狀況，我認為在當前情況下，這一點至關重要。截至2020年2月29日，我們的現金、受限現金和公司總投資額達9.3億美元，財務狀況依然非常穩健。

Funds held for clients as of February 29, 2020 was $4.4 billion compared to $3.8 billion as of May 31. Funds held for clients as you know vary widely on a day-to-day basis and averaged $4.5 billion for the third quarter.

截至 2020 年 2 月 29 日，為客戶持有的資金為 44 億美元，而截至 5 月 31 日為 38 億美元。如您所知，為客戶持有的資金每天都有很大的波動，第三季的平均值為 45 億美元。

Total available for sale investments, including corporate investments and funds held for clients, reflected net unrealized gains of $84 million as of February 29, 2020, compared with $20 million as of May 31, 2019. And as interest rates oscillate, that number changes very, very significantly.

截至2020年2月29日，可供出售投資總額（包括公司投資及為客戶持有的基金）反映出未實現淨收益為8,400萬美元，而截至2019年5月31日為2,000萬美元。隨著利率波動，這個數字會發生非常非常大的變化。

Total stockholders' equity was $2.8 billion as of February 29, reflecting $667 million in dividends paid and $172 million of shares repurchased during the first 9 months. Our return on equity in the past 12 months was a very robust 42%.

截至2月29日，股東權益總額為28億美元，其中包括前9個月支付的股利6.67億美元及回購的股票1.72億美元。過去12個月，我們的股本回報率高達42%。

Cash flows from operations were $1.1 billion for the first 9 months, an increase of 3% over the same period last year. The increase was driven by higher net income offset by timing fluctuations in working capital.

前九個月的營運活動現金流量為11億美元，較去年同期成長3%。成長主要得益於淨利增加，但部分被營運資金的波動所抵銷。

Let me just summarize financial -- our financial position because it's very, as I said, important. We are very solid with -- our cash position is strong. We have $900 million in cash. We have an undrawn revolver. We have the highest cash generation of our peer group. We have the highest dividend. And we have confidence that we will weather the storm for both our clients, our employees and our shareholders.

讓我簡單總結一下我們的財務狀況，因為正如我所說，這非常重要。我們的現金儲備非常充足，高達9億美元。我們還有一筆尚未提取的循環信貸額度。我們的現金流在同業中位居榜首，股利也最高。我們有信心能夠渡過難關，為我們的客戶、員工和股東創造價值。

Now I turn to guidance for the current fiscal year ended May 31, 2020. First, I want to provide context. As you know, there are new events unfolding daily, and we're constantly incorporating this information. Our guidance reflects our assumptions as of today based on the information that we have regarding potential effects on the business. This guidance also reflects the impact of 150 basis points of interest rate cuts that have occurred in March.

現在我來談談截至2020年5月31日的本財年的業績指引。首先，我想先介紹一下背景。正如各位所知，每天都有新的事件發生，我們也不斷地將這些資訊納入考量。我們的業績指引反映了我們截至目前基於現有資訊所作出的假設，這些資訊涉及可能對業務產生的影響。此外，該指引也反映了3月150個基點的降息所帶來的影響。

Our guidance for the full year fiscal 2020, as you saw in the press release now, is that we anticipate Management Solutions to grow approximately 4%; PEO now about 24% for the full year. Interest on funds held for clients is anticipated now to decline in the range of 2% to 3%. And total revenue is now anticipated to grow in the range of 8% to 9%.

如您在新聞稿中所見，我們對2020財年全年業績的預期是：管理解決方案業務預計將成長約4%；專業雇主組織（PEO）業務預計將成長約24%。客戶資金利息預計將下降2%至3%。總收入預計將成長8%至9%。

Op income as a percent of total revenue is anticipated to be approximately 36%. EBITDA margin for the full year 2020 is expected to be approximately 41%. Other expense net is expected to be in the range of $22 million to $24 million. And the effective income tax rate is expected to be in the range of 23.5% to 24%.

預計營業利潤佔總收入的比例約為36%。 2020年全年EBITDA利潤率預計約41%。其他淨支出預計在2,200萬美元至2,400萬美元之間。實際所得稅率預計在23.5%至24%之間。

Net income and diluted earnings per share growth are now anticipated to increase approximately 7%. And adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to grow approximately 6%.

預計淨利潤和稀釋後每股收益將成長約7%。調整後淨利和調整後稀釋後每股收益預計將成長約6%。

For the fourth quarter as you can do it when you plug in your models, you can see that the guidance implies we are anticipating that total revenue will decrease modestly and operating margins will be approximately 32%. We monitor a variety of leading internal business indicators to drive this estimate. Let me just provide some thought on that, and then I'm going to talk about next year.

第四季度，正如您在模型中輸入資料後所看到的，我們的預測表明，總收入預計會小幅下降，營業利潤率約為32%。我們透過監測一系列領先的內部業務指標來得出這項預測。我先簡單談談我的看法，然後再談談明年的情況。

So we look at leading indicators. And as I'm sitting here, I have a 42-page document from our data analytics group that tells me a lot of stuff about what's going on in the business. Not everything, can't forecast all of the future but we see what's happening in real time. We through the middle of March were not seeing significant impacts. Marty mentioned earlier that we were monitoring key metrics. Didn't really see significant drops. And then towards the last -- the second half of March, we started to see the impacts on the business roll through.

所以我們關注領先指標。我現在手裡拿著一份來自數據分析團隊的42頁文件，裡面詳細列出了公司正在發生的許多事情。當然，我們無法預測未來所有的事情，但我們可以即時了解正在發生的事情。三月中旬之前，我們還沒有看到明顯的衝擊。馬蒂之前提到過，我們一直在監控關鍵指標，並沒有發現明顯的下降。但到了三月下旬，我們開始看到疫情對業務的影響逐漸顯現。

We've incorporated as much of that into the guidance in fourth quarter as we can. We think we have a reasonably good handle on what's going on. But you also temper that with experience of both what happened in 9/11 because that was an endogenous shock that was more short-lived, and then you also balance that against the '08-'09 recession. So all of those, all of those ideas are part of the information we're triangulating to get not only the fourth quarter but to the year that -- the next year, which I'll talk about in a second.

我們已盡可能地將這些因素納入第四季的業績指引中。我們認為我們對當前情勢的把握相當準確。但同時，我們也需要結合9/11事件的經驗來調整，因為那是一次持續時間較短的內生性衝擊，此外，我們還要考慮2008-2009年的經濟衰退。所有這些因素，我們都在綜合考量，以期不僅預測第四季的業績，還能預測明年的業績──我稍後會詳細討論這一點。

It is for many of you as you know. It says though we are on the LIE expressway on our way to the beaches. And you know there is -- the traffic is flowing smoothly but you know there's a stop ahead. What you don't know is, those of us who've been caught there, whether it's a 2-hour stop, a 3-hour stop or something longer. And so we know a stop is coming. We expect that impacts will be felt in April and May. For the remainder of this year, we've estimated them at -- as best we can. But circumstances can change, especially as more states decide to go on full lockdown.

你們中的許多人都知道，情況確實如此。雖然我們正行駛在長島高速公路（LIE）上，前往海灘。你們也知道——雖然交通順暢，但前方會遇到交通堵塞。你們不知道的是，我們這些被堵在路上的人，無論塞車兩小時、三小時或更久，都深有體會。所以我們知道塞車即將到來。我們預計四月和五月會受到影響。至於今年剩餘時間，我們只能盡力做出預估。但情況可能會發生變化，尤其是在更多州決定全面封鎖的情況下。

So with that analogy and with the caveats that I just -- I'm about to mention, let me talk about next year. We typically give at least a preview of where we expect next year to be, and we won't bail out and say it's too early to say anything. We know some things, and we'll give -- we'll tell you what we know. We will give guidance on -- in fiscal 2020 -- during our fiscal 2020 in the fourth quarter call in June. So our intent is to provide you with guidance that's more complete then.

所以，基於這個比喻，以及我即將提到的一些注意事項，讓我來談談明年。我們通常至少會提前透露我們對明年的預期，我們不會迴避說現在下結論還為時過早。我們掌握了一些訊息，我們會告訴大家我們掌握的情況。我們將在6月份的2020財年第四季財報電話會議上給予2020財年的業績指引。因此，我們的目標是屆時向大家提供更全面的指引。

But let me tell you about our thought process based on everything that we're monitoring. And again, we're early on in the process and subject to change. By the way, shout out to Accenture, they went first. They said what they could. And obviously, circumstances have changed. I am certain that when others report later, circumstances will have changed. They'll be in possession of better information. But this is what we have at this point, and we'll share it with you.

但我想根據我們監測到的所有信息，談談我們的思考過程。再次強調，我們目前還處於早期階段，情況可能會有所改變。順便提一下埃森哲，他們率先發布了報告，並盡其所能地闡述了他們的觀點。顯然，情況已經改變了。我相信，當其他機構稍後發布報告時，情況也會有所不同，他們會掌握更全面的資訊。但這就是我們目前掌握的訊息，我們會與大家分享。

So based on the leading indicators that we have, and then based on modeling on the impacts of the business and other business contractions, on a very preliminary basis, our thought process is that total revenue is going to be flattish to down low single digits for fiscal 2021. This scenario, remember, includes the impact of the most recent cuts to interest rates. And so that will impact total revenue growth next year. We're anticipating at this point that, that impact will be somewhere in the range of about 20 million off of where we end this year. That part, we have some understanding of. But obviously if the Fed decides to go negative, we'll have a conversation to that -- about that.

因此，根據我們掌握的領先指標，以及對業務和其他業務萎縮影響的建模分析，初步來看，我們認為2021財年的總收入將基本持平或略微下降至個位數。需要注意的是，這項預測包含了近期降息的影響。因此，降息將影響明年的總收入成長。我們目前預計，降息的影響將比今年底的收入減少約2,000萬美元。我們對這部分情況有一定的了解。但顯然，如果聯準會決定採取負利率政策，我們將就此進行討論。

Looking very preliminarily, we would anticipate that operating margins will be somewhere in the range of about 35%. We would obviously manage the business to that. And our tax rate before discrete items will remain consistent with fiscal year '20. I just can't emphasize enough that this is preliminary, subject to change. At this point, the scenario that we see unfolding is significant impact in Q1; followed by some, some improvement in Q2, moderate improvement through Q3, and then more of a recovery in Q4. That is consistent with the shock that we saw when we went through 9/11. We continue to update our information every day literally, and wanted to give you at least an understanding of how our thought process is going at this point.

初步來看，我們預計營業利潤率將在35%左右。我們顯然會依照這個目標進行業務管理。扣除特殊項目前的稅率將與2020財年保持一致。我必須強調，這只是初步預測，可能會有所變動。目前，我們預計第一季將受到顯著影響；第二季將有所改善；第三季將溫和改善；第四季將進一步復甦。這與我們經歷9/11事件時的衝擊情況類似。我們幾乎每天都在更新訊息，希望至少讓您了解我們目前的思路。

So with that, I will turn it back to Marty. One thing I would say is we want -- we -- I get a lot of questions at the end, "Why don't you guys just stop taking questions at a certain point?" We will not do that. We'll answer every single question you got. The only issue I would ask is that you keep them brief and focused. If someone had asked the question before, unless you need clarification on it, please, please don't repeat the question, so everyone can have a chance to talk before our voices give out.

那麼，接下來就交給馬蒂了。我想說的是，我們──我們──常常有人在最後問：「為什麼你們不中途停止回答問題呢？」我們不會那樣做。我們會回答你們提出的每一個問題。我唯一的要求是，請你們盡量言簡意賅，切中要點。如果之前有人問過同樣的問題，除非你需要進一步解釋，否則請不要重複提問，這樣才能保證每個人都有機會發言，直到我們嗓子啞了為止。

So with that, I'll turn it back to Marty.

那麼，接下來我就把麥克風交還給馬蒂了。

Great. Thank you. Lisa, if you could now open the call to questions.

太好了，謝謝。麗莎，現在可以開始接受提問了嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal 的線路。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

question and for taking a stab at guidance in a really difficult environment. We appreciate that. I wonder if you could go into a little bit more detail in terms of the expense levers and the different levers you have in your business to sort of manage, to protect the bottom line in adverse scenarios. What do you have that you can kind of -- dials that you have that you can crank to kind of get where you need to get to?

感謝您在如此艱難的環境下提出問題並嘗試提供指導，我們非常感激。我想請您更詳細地談談貴公司在成本控制方面有哪些手段，以及在不利情況下如何透過不同的措施來保障利潤。您有哪些可以靈活運用的「旋鈕」或「控製手段」來達成目標？

Yes. So like most service businesses, 65% of your costs are people costs and 35% are variable. We obviously will go right after as much variable costs as we can, and then we'll look at where there are other opportunities. I think that's the order in which we'll do it.

是的。和大多數服務型企業一樣，你們的成本中65%是人力成本，35%是變動成本。我們當然會先盡可能降低變動成本，然後再考慮其他方面的機會。我想這就是我們的工作順序。

Yes, I think with the changes when you look back to the financial crisis of '08 and '09, we were very quick to react there and yet keep full employment of the people that we had. Given some of the turnover that we have and so forth, I think we have a pretty flexible ability to keep a focus on the margins as we always have. As Efrain said, we've always led by far the industry in margins, and we certainly keep a close eye on that.

是的，回顧2008年和2009年的金融危機，我認為我們當時反應非常迅速，並且成功地維持了所有員工的就業。考慮到我們目前的人員流動情況等等，我認為我們仍然能夠靈活地像以往一樣專注於利潤率。正如埃弗雷恩所說，我們的利潤率一直遙遙領先於業界，我們當然也會密切關注這一點。

Okay. And my second one is on the PEO and insurance segment in the quarter, can you parse out what growth would have been there without the Oasis stub? And then just more broadly, in the insurance part of your business, can you talk about sort of risk management strategies in the context of the environment we're in? And I'll hop back in the queue after that.

好的。我的第二個問題是關於本季PEO和保險業務部門的，您能否分析一下，如果沒有Oasis的貢獻，這部分業務的成長會是多少？然後，更廣泛地說，就貴公司保險業務而言，您能否談談在當前環境下的風險管理策略？之後我會繼續排隊提問。

You want to start?

你想開始嗎？

Okay. So I'm going to ask you to repeat the second question to clarify what you're asking. But -- because I think the way you asked it, I can answer it in a variety of different ways. But if you look at PEO and insurance -- I'm sorry, the PEO business, we would have grown about 5 -- mid-single digits I'd say, in the PEO business in the third quarter.

好的。那我請你重複第二個問題，以便更清楚地了解你的問題。不過——因為我覺得你問的方式，我可以有很多不同的回答。但如果你看PEO和保險——抱歉，是PEO業務，我們第三季的PEO業務成長了大約5%——我估計是中等個位數。

The second question I didn't get. I didn't understand really.

第二個問題我沒聽懂。我真的沒明白。

It was just basically in terms of the insurance part of the business. Maybe I'll rephrase the question and just sort of ask it as how do you see that business sort of -- have you seen preliminary signs in that business of any type of deterioration in terms of leading indicators? And how do you go about managing risk in that side of the business throughout a downturn? Maybe I'd leave it to you to answer it as you would.

基本上就是關於保險業務方面的問題。或許我應該換個問法，問問您如何看待這項業務——您是否已經觀察到任何先行指標顯示該業務出現任何惡化跡象？在經濟低迷時期，您是如何管理這方面業務的風險的？或許我應該把這個問題留給您來回答。

Yes. Yes, let me just explain why I'm pausing. So PEO and insurance, I've mentioned this to many of you, is both the brokered insurance business, which is roughly call it 18% to 20% of revenues in that category, and the PEO business. So that causes sometimes confusion when people look at it. On the brokerage business, we bear no risk. So the short answer to your question, which I don't think is what you're asking, is that it really doesn't have much of an impact. The softness in the insurance I keep calling out is really the softness in the workers' comp insurance portion of the brokerage business, not in the PEO.

是的。好的，讓我解釋一下我為什麼停頓一下。我之前跟很多人提過，PEO（專業雇主組織）和保險業務既包括經紀保險業務（約佔該類別收入的18%到20%），也包括PEO業務。所以，人們有時會對此感到困惑。在經紀業務方面，我們不承擔任何風險。因此，對於你的問題（雖然我覺得這可能不是你真正想問的），我的簡短答案是：它實際上影響不大。我一直提到的保險業務疲軟，實際上指的是經紀業務中工傷保險部分的疲軟，而不是PEO業務的疲軟。

I think what you're asking is, if I understand the question, is how are we monitoring the at-risk portion of the insurance in the PEO. I think that's the issue. And the short answer is...

我想你問的，如果我理解正確的話，是我們如何監控PEO（專業雇主組織）保險中的風險部分。我認為這才是問題的關鍵。簡而言之…

That's correct. That's absolutely correct.

沒錯，完全正確。

Yes. Okay. So the short answer to that is that it's predominantly in the state of Florida. That's one. So number two, we look at medical loss ratios, and they have been running very favorable. And the third which requires a much -- more understanding of the way we operate the PEO, we don't anticipate that we will make insurance -- make a profit on the insurance portion of the at-risk, particularly health insurance. What that means is that we are very cautious and very conservative in the amount of reserves that we provide. So the short answer to your question is that we stress tested that population, which again is primarily in the state of Florida within -- by the way, just if you want to know, the average age of that population of worksite employees is about 38. What would happen if the medical loss ratio increased by 10%, which would be significant? We are still in good shape from a reserve standpoint.

是的，好的。簡而言之，主要集中在佛羅裡達州。這是第一點。第二點，我們關注醫療損失率，目前為止情況非常樂觀。第三點，這需要更深入地了解我們PEO的運作方式，我們預計不會從風險承擔者的保險部分（尤其是健康保險）中獲利。這意味著我們在準備金方面非常謹慎保守。所以，簡而言之，我們對這部分人群進行了壓力測試，這部分人群主要集中在佛羅裡達州——順便一提，如果您想知道的話，這部分工作場所員工的平均年齡約為38歲。如果醫療損失率增加10%會發生什麼事？這將會是一個很大的改變。從準備金的角度來看，我們目前的情況仍然良好。

So the short answer is we're constantly monitoring our medical loss ratios in that population. We are -- we adjust reserves as we think appropriate based on the experience we're having. And at this stage, we feel we're in pretty good shape. If you are relying on that portion of your portfolio to generate profit, you put yourself in a more complicated situation because your reserves may be lower than you need at this point in time. So that's my explanation.

簡而言之，我們一直在密切關注該族群的醫療損失率。我們會根據實際情況調整準備金。目前，我們認為情況相當不錯。如果您依賴投資組合中的這部分來獲利，那麼您的情況會更加複雜，因為此時您的準備金可能低於實際所需。以上就是我的解釋。

Yes. I think the only thing I'd add to that is any initial view on the PEO side is actually very active on the HR and insurance side. So -- and we've done, I think, a very good job on the diligence, the underwriting, and that's going to certainly continue. And so we haven't seen any uptick in claims, and Efrain said how well we manage that and are very tight on that to begin with. But we've actually seen a lot of interest on the HR side obviously with the complexity of the regulations that are coming out, both the PEO and ASO part of our business, our HR outsourcing. We're the only one with 600-plus HR specialists around the country that are handling these clients, and it is -- the interest has grown very quickly. So the initial piece is there's going to be a lot of need for the HR support not only at the beginning of this in case "I have to shut down temporarily, et cetera, but how do I handle the support payments? How do I handle small business loans? What do I do with payroll taxes?" All those things.

是的。我想補充一點，目前PEO（專業雇主組織）的初步觀察顯示，人力資源和保險領域的業務非常活躍。我們在盡職調查和承保方面做得非常出色，而且我們肯定會繼續保持這種勢頭。因此，我們沒有看到索賠數量激增，Efrain也提到我們在這方面管理得非常好，而且一開始就把控制力度做得非常嚴格。但顯然，隨著監管法規的複雜性日益增加，我們在人力資源領域也看到了很大的發展，這體現在我們PEO和ASO（應用服務組織）業務以及人力資源外包業務中。我們是全國唯一擁有600多位名人力資源專家為這些客戶提供服務的公司，而且這種需求成長非常迅速。所以，首先，不僅在初期需要大量的人力資源支持，以防“我不得不暫時停業等等”，而且還需要處理補助金？如何處理小企業貸款？如何處理薪資稅？等等等等。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

Thanks for taking a shot at 2021 obviously in a fluid. Efrain and Marty, just a couple of thoughts on kind of semantics. How -- because obviously it feels like just the shock is much more abrupt. Is there any way to think about if somebody gets furloughed versus laid off, how that impacts kind of the business model? That was my first one. And then just what type of kind of unemployment rates are you assuming in that 2021, if there's any thoughts around that?

感謝你們對2021年的展望，當然，2021年的情況顯然還不明朗。 Efrain和Marty，關於一些語意方面的問題，我有一些想法。因為很明顯，現在的衝擊似乎更突然。如果員工是暫時停職還是被解僱，會對企業的商業模式產生什麼樣的影響？這是我的第一個問題。另外，你們對2021年的失業率有什麼預期嗎？

Yes, let me start on the first one. I think it is really important. Right now, we're able -- with our new Flex technology, we're able to actually survey clients who are in our app. And we've had tremendous response just in the last 4 days asking them what's the impact to them. And we're seeing that the vast majority of small businesses and midsized businesses is the fact that, hey, about 50 -- over 50% have had minimal impact at this point, and then another 40% have basically furloughed. So our hope and our word tracks from our payroll specialists on the service side, our salespeople are, hey, if you can stay in business and keep -- somehow either furlough or keep paying your employees if you can, there's going to be support. It certainly looks like there's going to be help coming, whether it be the small business loan project. That's why we pushed also to offer our assistance. We have all that information. We know the direct deposit accounts in the bank. We could quickly continue to help our clients pay their employees 6 weeks, 8 weeks, whatever the government wants to do, and then just take that money from a government loan fund versus the client. And I think that's the quickest way to keep these businesses in business. So it is really important.

是的，讓我先說第一個問題。我認為這非常重要。現在，借助我們新的Flex技術，我們可以對使用我們應用程式的客戶進行調查。僅僅在過去的四天裡，我們就收到了大量的回饋，詢問他們受到的影響。我們發現，絕大多數中小企業受到的影響微乎其微，大約超過50%的企業目前受到的影響很小，而另外40%的企業基本上已經讓員工暫時停工。因此，我們希望，並且從我們服務部門的薪資專家和銷售人員那裡了解到，如果你們能夠繼續經營，並且盡可能地讓員工暫時停工或繼續支付工資，就會得到支持。看起來肯定會有援助措施出台，例如小型企業貸款專案。這就是為什麼我們也積極主動地提供幫助的原因。我們掌握了所有相關資訊。我們知道銀行的直接存款帳戶。我們可以迅速幫助客戶繼續支付員工薪資，6週、8週，或任何政府規定的期限，然後直接從政府貸款基金中領取這筆錢，而不是讓客戶自己承擔。我認為這是讓這些企業繼續運作的最快方法。所以這真的非常重要。

And I'm seeing right now, at least leading indicator, is that small businesses are trying to hold it together, maybe lay off or furlough a few people, but maintain their business model so that -- kind of depending on how long this is going to go. And if it doesn't go too long, they'll be able to bounce back.

我現在看到的，至少從初步跡象來看，是小企業正在努力維持運營，可能會裁員或讓一些員工暫時休假，但會盡量維持現有的商業模式，這樣——就取決於這種情況會持續多久。如果這種情況不會持續太久，他們就能重新振作。

Remember, just 2 weeks ago we had full employment and it was -- the biggest challenge for small businesses was finding people to fulfill the demand. I don't think that the demand in many places will actually change. And I think it'll bounce -- I think it'll bounce back fairly quickly. People are going to want to get out. They're going to get back to restaurants and use services. May do it a little bit differently in how they stand close to people, but I think they still want to get out and use services. And so these small businesses are trying to hold on to their employees, and that's going to make a big difference in how many clients are lost and how many checks we're cutting.

記住，就在兩週前我們還處於充分就業狀態，小企業面臨的最大挑戰是找到人來滿足需求。我認為很多地方的需求其實不會改變。而且我認為它會反彈——我認為它會很快反彈。人們會想要出門。他們會回到餐館，會使用各種服務。也許在與人保持距離方面會有一些變化，但我認為他們仍然想要出門，並使用各種服務。因此，這些小型企業正在努力留住員工，這將對客戶流失數量和我們最終能開出多少支票產生重大影響。

The second question, Kevin, so let me just say broadly, many of our clients if you look at our -- on the payroll side -- or I'm sorry, Management Solutions side, and you ask yourself when you look at our revenue, how much of it is based on a PEPM model, what percentage of revenue is PEPM versus subscription. In our case, and there's certain -- there's a general rule of thumb is about 1/3 is PEPM and 2/3 is subscription. We assume that in the next several months, the drop in pays per control will become -- will be severe -- will be pretty significant, I should say. I don't know severe. I know you're asking the question that everyone is, does unemployment finally go to 20% to 25%? I don't have a good crystal ball as -- and no one else does. But I can tell you that the way we've modeled it, we see some significant contraction coming in the upcoming months. We'll see how long it lasts. We've done the modeling and think we've got at least a reasonable handle on it. So I would say significant over the next several months.

凱文，第二個問題，我先概括地說，我們很多客戶——如果你看一下我們的薪資管理服務——或者抱歉，是管理解決方案服務——當你查看我們的收入時，你會問自己，其中有多少是基於人均月薪模式的，人均月薪收入佔總收入的百分比是多少，訂閱收入又佔多少百分比。就我們而言，通常來說，人均月薪收入佔總收入的三分之一，訂閱收入佔三分之二。我們預計，在接下來的幾個月裡，人均月薪的下降幅度將會非常大，應該說相當顯著。我不知道「非常大」到底是什麼意思。我知道你跟大家一樣都在問同一個問題：失業率最終會不會達到20%到25%？我沒有水晶球，其他人也沒有。但我可以告訴你，根據我們的模型預測，未來幾個月經濟將會顯著萎縮。至於這種情況會持續多久，我們拭目以待。我們已經完成了建模，並認為我們至少已經基本掌握了情況。所以我認為未來幾個月將會有顯著進展。

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Just want to ask about a bridge maybe going from the 6-or-so percent organic growth level that we're at today, down to the slightly negative growth in the fourth quarter and then for next year. Just thinking about what's in those assumptions, including bankruptcies and other things that drives it to those levels?

我想問一下，從目前6%左右的有機成長率，到第四季和明年略微負成長的過渡期，是否有某種過渡方案？我只是想了解這些假設的依據，包括破產和其他導致成長率下降的因素？

Yes. Our assumption is that there will be client losses in the base will -- that there will be, that would be lowered pays per control. And we've modeled it based on what we've seen in prior recessions, and then we got to figure out how -- my bad LIE analogy is just simply to figure out what's the duration of the traffic jam until that resolves. Then the question is with the sharp rebound -- how sharp the rebound is. And we think it ends up coming back towards the end of the year.

是的。我們假設基礎客戶群會流失－也就是說，客戶流失會導致每位客戶的收益降低。我們根據以往經濟衰退的經驗建立了模型，然後我們需要弄清楚——我不太恰當的比喻是，我們需要弄清楚交通堵塞會持續多久，直到問題解決。接下來的問題是關於強勁反彈——反彈的力道有多大。我們認為最終會在年底前恢復正常。

There's -- I can't -- Bryan, I can't give you a bridge that says it's 6% this, 3% that, because frankly the modeling is early on that. All I can say is that we've looked at the client base, stressed it, assumed certain impacts particularly for some of our payroll client base, compared that against what we saw in previous recessions and come up with our best estimate. But we do anticipate that there obviously is going to be an impact to the client base, and there's going to be an impact on pays per control.

布萊恩，我不能給你一個確切的數字，例如6%這個比例，3%那個比例，因為坦白說，目前的模型還處於早期階段。我只能說，我們已經分析了客戶群體，進行了壓力測試，並假設了一些影響，特別是對我們部分薪資客戶的影響，然後將這些影響與我們之前經歷的經濟衰退情況進行了比較，最終得出了我們目前最好的估計。但我們確實預計，客戶群和人均薪資水準都會受到影響。

And I would just caveat it with one thing which Marty said earlier. To the extent that the downturn is severe but more short duration, then our assumptions start to change. And to the extent that the downturn is both severe short term, and the government stimulus which they're working through now helps to keep some of those businesses in place, it also helps our projections. Don't have any way yet of being able to figure all of that out. We'll see in the upcoming days what it looks like. That could have, and I emphasize "could have" some impact, but it's too early to tell.

我還要補充一點，就像馬蒂之前提到的。如果經濟衰退嚴重但持續時間較短，那麼我們的假設就會改變。如果經濟衰退既嚴重又短暫，而且政府正在推行的刺激措施能夠幫助一些企業維持運營，那麼這也有助於我們做出預測。目前我們還無法完全確定所有情況。未來幾天我們會觀察情況。這可能會產生一些影響，我強調是“可能會”，但現在下結論還為時過早。

And then of course, Efrain already mentioned the interest rate changes is in that as well. That's a known, that's more of a known item.

當然，埃弗雷恩之前也提到利率變動也是其中的一部分。這是眾所皆知的，這方面大家都很清楚。

Yes, I was going to ask that as my follow-up is how did you account for the stimulus? They're doing a lot for SMBs to try to prop them up and keep them alive. So is that modeled in as well? Or do you just model in as if there would be no stimulus?

是的，我正想問這個問題，我的後續問題是：你們是如何考慮刺激因素的？他們為扶持中小企業做了很多工作，試圖幫助它們渡過難關。那麼，你們是否也把這些因素納入模型中了呢？還是你們只是假設沒有刺激因素就進行建模？

I think it was pretty high level, Bryan. We modeled some. I think we -- we're trying to be a little more conservative on who would go out of business and on the checks because of that. But it was pretty -- it's pretty high level. And you didn't know where the stimulus is going to be and how long it's going to take.

布萊恩，我覺得這已經算是比較宏觀的估計了。我們做了一些建模。我想我們——我們正在努力對哪些企業會倒閉以及因此發放的支票採取更保守的估計。但這確實只是比較宏觀的估計。而且你當時也不知道刺激計畫會在哪裡出台，也不知道需要多久才能實施。

I think the thing that's so important that we try to get across, I think the government's taken some great steps very quickly. This one could go faster. If you do use someone like the payroll processors, I think it could be very quick. Or if you have to go through a loan program, it could take weeks. Those [loan] weeks are very important to how this happens, I think, to keep people employed and being paid and businesses in session. So I'm very hopeful that they will do something faster and -- because of the way they've done it already and if that keeps these businesses running.

我認為我們努力傳達的關鍵一點是，政府已經迅速採取了一些非常重要的措施。這件事還可以做得更快。如果你使用像薪資處理公司這樣的機構，我認為速度會非常快。或者，如果你必須通過貸款項目，可能需要幾週。我認為這幾週對於維持就業、確保人們獲得報酬以及維持企業正常運作至關重要。所以我非常希望他們能加快速度——因為他們之前的做法已經證明了這一點，而且如果這些措施能夠幫助企業繼續運作的話。

Your next question comes from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Appreciate the preliminary 2021 outlook. Could you dimension for us your revenue exposure to some of the most affected industries like restaurants, just broadly foodservice, so we can think through 2021 in terms of the framework that you gave?

感謝您提供的2021年初步展望。能否請您詳細說明貴公司在一些受影響最大的行業（例如餐飲業，或者更廣泛地說，整個食品服務業）的收入敞口，以便我們能夠根據您提供的框架來思考2021年的發展？

Yes, let me start and then Efrain can jump in. I think it's definitely -- I'd say restaurants in general and those groups are probably around 5, 5% or 6% of our base. And so it's not as big as some might expect. So I think that's going to be helpful. And those are the industries that you're seeing obviously the most impact in some place like New York state and other states that shut down the restaurants completely.

好的，我先說，然後埃弗雷恩可以接著說。我認為肯定是──我指的是餐飲業，這類企業大概占我們客戶群的5%到6%。所以它並沒有一些人想像的那麼大。因此，我認為這會很有幫助。而且，在像紐約州和其他一些完全關閉餐廳的州，這些行業顯然受到的影響最大。

It also depends as Efrain has said a couple of times, how long does that happen. Do we try to start to open those back up in a few weeks with even a partial -- with a 50% rule or something else? How do you -- how long do you keep them in business? But I think it's around that number roughly on a client base.

正如埃弗雷恩多次提到的，這還取決於這種情況會持續多久。我們是否應該嘗試在幾週內逐步恢復營業，即使只是部分恢復——例如限制在50%以內或其他方式？如何才能讓他們維持營運？但我認為，就客戶群而言，大概就是這個數字。

Yes, David, so there's been a fair amount of talk about how this endogenous shock is affecting industries. Marty's right that the -- if you look at essentially hospitality and food services, that's about 6% of our client base. So obviously that's impacted pretty significantly both in -- on the payroll side and on the PEO side. But it's 6%. If you look at everything else, for example oil and gas is 1%. And everything else is distributed in a distribution that looks pretty similar to what the broad economy looks like. So we don't have significant exposures to one industry or the other on our payroll client base.

是的，David，關於這種內生衝擊如何影響各行各業，已經有很多討論了。 Marty說得對，如果你只看飯店和餐飲服務業，這大約占我們顧客群的6%。顯然，無論是在薪資管理方面還是在PEO（專業雇主組織）方面，這都受到了相當大的影響。但畢竟只有6%。如果你看看其他產業，例如石油和天然氣，只佔1%。其他產業的分佈與整體經濟的分佈非常相似。所以，我們的薪資管理客戶群並沒有對某個特定產業有顯著的風險敞口。

Yes. One of the real positives as Efrain mentioned about our model and our financial strength, is we don't have any direct, any large percentage in one industry, ZIP code or region. And so that allows us a lot more diversity across the base, the type of businesses and so forth.

是的。正如埃弗雷恩所提到的，我們模式和財務實力的一大優勢在於，我們沒有任何直接的、很大的投資比例集中在某個產業、郵遞區號區域或地區。因此，這使我們能夠在業務基礎、企業類型等方面實現更大的多元化。

Understood. Just a quick final question. You noted that the business really started to experience impacts in the second half of this month versus the first half. Can you share your -- what you saw in the second half in terms of quantifying the impact on KPIs?

明白了。最後一個問題。您提到，與上半月相比，本月下半月業務受到的影響更為顯著。您能否分享一下，您在下半月觀察到的關鍵績效指標（KPI）受到的影響是如何量化的？

Yes. So what we saw was we -- so I was looking at, we were looking at people running payroll, and we weren't seeing any impacts. And it looked like clients, to us, were either staying at current -- with their current processing routine. Or in some cases, they were accelerating their processing because they were in the process of either downsizing; or in some cases, closing.

是的。我們看到的情況是──我當時在觀察，我們觀察的是那些負責發放薪資的人，我們沒有發現任何影響。在我們看來，客戶要么維持了原有的處理流程，要么在某些情況下，他們加快了處理速度，因為他們正在裁員，或者在某些情況下，正在關閉公司。

But that didn't give us enough data, so we went back into the other data that we had on time and attendance systems. We triangulated time and attendance systems. We triangulated marketing leads, sales activity. And we saw significant drops starting as the rollout of state closures or state lockdowns accelerated. So that's where we saw the impact.

但這樣提供的數據還不夠，所以我們又重新分析了先前掌握的考勤系統數據。我們對考勤系統、行銷線索和銷售活動等數據進行了三角驗證。結果發現，隨著各州加速實施封鎖或停業措施，相關數據開始出現顯著下降。這就是我們發現影響的地方。

Now the good thing about that is that we can see what the impact is, and we can see the change in the demand environment. The question is how quickly we come up out of that. Obviously, New York is not going to come out of that quickly. The question is what other -- what happens with other states that have gone into that place.

好處在於我們可以看到其影響，也可以看到需求環境的改變。問題在於我們能多快擺脫這種困境。顯然，紐約不會很快擺脫困境。問題是，其他陷入這種境地的州會發生什麼事。

Yes, the interesting -- one of the interesting things is while we've seen leads drop off on the front end but there -- but then there's been other pieces that have picked up. So they're definitely down but they're not like shut down. They're down double digits but not as much as you might have even thought. So people are still looking for, and maybe because of this, looking for payroll support, HR support, insurance, those kind of things. So they're also finding that frankly this is the time that they better go with an outsourcer and that they would want to go with somebody who's national and has the support and service teams that we have that are disaggregated across the entire country and that can provide great answer, performance and support even with 15,000 people working from home. So I think there's some benefits to the strength of who we are and our experience level at this point in time.

是的，有趣的是——雖然我們看到前端銷售線索下降，但其他一些業務卻有所成長。所以，雖然業務量確實有所下降，但並沒有完全停滯。下降幅度雖然達到兩位數，但遠遠沒有你想像的那麼大。人們仍然在尋找，或許正是因為如此，他們需要薪資支援、人力資源支援、保險等等。他們也發現，坦白說，現在正是選擇外包服務商的最佳時機，他們更傾向於選擇像我們這樣擁有全國性支援和服務團隊的公司。我們的支援和服務團隊遍佈全國各地，即使在15,000名員工居家辦公的情況下，也能提供優質的解決方案、卓越的績效和全面的支援。因此，我認為，在目前這個階段，我們自身的實力和經驗水準都具有一定的優勢。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Wald with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的史蒂文·沃爾德。

I appreciate you trying to provide as much guidance as you can here. Just maybe following up on some of the conversation. You just mentioned about the down double digits on the lead but things aren't completely frozen. As we think about the developing competitive environment as we go through the trough and come out of this, how are you guys thinking about positioning that? Obviously, you made a lot of investments on the Oasis side to get that fully staffed up on the sales side. But when we think about things like waiving fees right now to offset pressure that clients may be receiving, or the fact that you may have some pricing competition from the very crowded market, how are you guys thinking about that over the next 12 months?

感謝您盡力提供指導。我想就之前的討論做一些補充。您剛才提到銷售線索數量出現了兩位數的下降，但情況並沒有完全停滯。考慮到我們正處於低谷期，競爭環境也在不斷變化，您打算如何應對？顯然，您在 Oasis 方面投入了大量資金，確保銷售團隊人員充足。但是，考慮到目前可能會出現一些問題，例如為了緩解客戶可能面臨的壓力而免除部分費用，或者由於市場競爭激烈，您可能會面臨價格方面的挑戰，您打算如何應對未來 12 個月的這些挑戰？

Yes. I think it's a lot more about are you positioned to help the clients through this difficult time. That's what they're looking for. Some clients are going to be looking for, "Hey, can you do something to help me in the short term on price?" But our prices frankly, as a cost to a small business or a midsized business, is not that big compared to the other things that they're concerned about. What we are finding is our strength in telesales, for example, is making a big difference. So we've been selling telephonically for some time, generating leads that are then picked up and handled telephonically with the conversation, the demo and the sale all being done over the phone. And even to some degree when you look at your payroll online all by the client in self-service mode, we've retrained and added training to the field sales force on handling those calls remotely. So being able to talk to clients that don't want to meet in person but to do that over the phone, to be able to demo the product and sell and complete the sale. And of course, with some of the features that we have with document management we've had for some time, everything can be done electronically, electronic signatures, moving the documents back and forth, and of course, electronically onboarding someone to start them up frankly in just a matter of a few hours.

是的。我認為更重要的是，你是否能夠幫助客戶度過這段艱難時期。這才是他們真正關心的。有些客戶會問：「嘿，你們短期內能不能在價格上幫我一把？」但坦白說，對於中小企業而言，我們的價格成本並不算高，相比他們關心的其他方面，價格優勢並不明顯。我們發現，例如，我們在電話銷售方面的優勢發揮了重要作用。我們已經透過電話銷售一段時間了，透過電話開發潛在客戶，然後跟進並完成溝通、產品演示和銷售。甚至在某種程度上，當客戶在線上自助查看薪資單時，我們也對銷售團隊進行了遠端電話溝通的再培訓。這樣，我們就能與不想見面但想透過電話溝通的客戶交流，示範產品，完成銷售。當然，憑藉我們已有的文件管理功能，所有操作都可以電子化完成，例如電子簽名、文件的來回傳輸，當然，還可以透過電子方式讓新員工上手，坦白說，只需幾個小時就能完成。

So I think what we're focusing on is all right, all of our marketing and so forth is how we can help you through this. Here's the service model we can give you. Here's the product and feature set that can help you. When you think of how strong our mobile app is, we're seeing increases in mobile app utilization. Because now clients are -- many clients' employees are remote, and they're able to use the mobile app. The investments that we've made are really paying off from that standpoint of mobile app learning management on -- they can give training to their employees online. Of course, direct deposit, Pay-on-Demand can help them if they're only part-time, or they're in short shifts and they need cash. So we're positioning this as more of the value that we're providing. And then if there's something that comes up specifically, we'll talk to the client. But it's not been as much about price as it is, "Hey, are you the full-service provider that can help me through this period of time versus someone else that I have that's not as experienced and not as strong financially?"

所以，我認為我們現在的重點是，我們所有的行銷等等，都是為了幫助您度過難關。這是我們能為您提供的服務模式，這是我們能幫助您的產品和功能。想想我們的行動應用有多強大，我們看到行動應用的使用率正在不斷提高。因為現在很多客戶的員工都在遠距辦公，他們可以使用行動應用。我們在這方面的投資確實在行動應用程式學習管理方面取得了回報——他們可以為員工提供線上培訓。當然，如果員工是兼職或輪班時間短，需要現金，那麼直接存款和按需支付功能也能幫助他們。所以我們把這些定位為我們所提供的更多價值。如果出現任何具體問題，我們會與客戶溝通。但問題不在於價格，而在於：“嘿，你是不是那種能幫助我度過這段時期的全方位服務提供商，而我之前合作的其他人經驗不足，經濟實力也不如你強？”

Got it. That's helpful. And then just maybe a quick sort of 2-parter. I know, Efrain, you mentioned the 42-page report you have sort of running through how to think about this. If we go back to the prior downturn, I believe retention rates dropped towards the mid- to high 70s. How are you thinking about that relative to the great financial crisis? But also someone had asked previously about the exposure to industries and how you're thinking about it versus prior downturns. But if we cross-section it and say, a restaurant in the Permian Basin that's more than just being exposed to oil and gas, how are you guys thinking about those?

明白了，這很有幫助。接下來我想快速問兩個問題。我知道，Efrain，你提到過你那份42頁的報告，裡面詳細闡述如何看待這個問題。如果我們回顧上一次經濟衰退，我記得當時的客戶留存率下降到了70%左右。你覺得這與這場金融危機相比如何？另外，之前有人問過關於產業風險敞口的問題，以及你如何看待它與先前經濟衰退相比的影響。如果我們把問題細分一下，比如說，一家位於二疊紀盆地的餐廳，它不僅僅受石油和天然氣行業的影響，你們是怎麼看待這類餐廳的呢？

Yes. So good question, Steven, and I would say we'll go into more detailed analysis of that type as we're going through the plan process. We're right in the middle of it right now, so we'll do more work in that way. And by the way, the analysis we have looks at exactly those kinds of things.

是的。問得好，史蒂文。我想說，我們會在計畫制定過程中對這類問題進行更詳細的分析。我們現在正處於計劃制定過程中，所以我們會在這方面投入更多精力。順便說一句，我們目前的分析正是著眼於這類問題。

But coming back to your question. When we -- in previous downturns, and now I'm going to go back to '08, '09, we started from a retention place that was lower than or -- yes, it was lower than where it is Now. If we would have continued on the same track we were on through the third quarter, we would've had record retention. I mean we were aiming towards a really, really significantly -- significant improvement in retention through the third quarter. And if you would have said to me when I started 9 years ago that we would hit that number, I would have been surprised because we were typically in the high 70s. So we start from a good place. So that's the first part. But you have to stress it based on the change that you saw in different environments, and we've taken our best estimate at what that will be.

回到你的問題。在之前的經濟低迷時期，例如2008年和2009年，我們的客戶留存率都低於現在的水平。如果我們能維持第三季的勢頭，我們的客戶留存率將會創下歷史新高。我的意思是，我們的目標是在第三季實現客戶留存率的顯著提升。如果9年前我剛入職時有人告訴我我們會達到這個數字，我會非常驚訝，因為我們當時的客戶留存率通常在70%以上。所以我們現在的起點很高。這是第一點。但你必須強調，這是基於不同環境下的變化而得出的結論，而我們已經盡最大努力做出了最佳預測。

So that's where we're at right now, looking at it versus the modeling of -- or the actual experience of previous recessions. I think we've got a good handle on dimensioning the range, and then we can overlay what will happen by industry. But to Marty's point, I think there's a -- there was a -- there is an assumption that we're very exposed to restaurants. We certainly have a certain amount of those in the base, but it's not all of the clients that we service by a long shot. Now I would say that that's for payroll, it's a little bit different for PEO.

所以，這就是我們目前的情況，我們正在將當前情況與以往經濟衰退的模型或實際經驗進行比較。我認為我們已經很好地掌握了影響範圍，然後可以根據行業來預測未來發展趨勢。但正如馬蒂所說，我認為存在一種假設，即我們非常依賴餐飲業。我們的確有一部分客戶來自餐飲業，但這遠非我們服務的全部客戶。我想說的是，這指的是薪資管理，而對於專業雇主組織（PEO）來說，情況則略有不同。

Yes. And Steven, I guess, I'd just add -- it is so determined on what Efrain said about the length of how long this goes. And then is the stimulus package going to help them through the first couple of months. And then does it go another 2 months, 3 months or so forth. With the financial crisis, it went longer, certainly I think 7 quarters or so. And so if there's something that can hold them on and they can still get business, even if it's takeout and they can furlough a few people but get support on their payroll, it could make a huge difference. So we've done some initial modeling but we really need to see kind of how the next couple of weeks even play out.

是的。史蒂文，我想補充一點——這很大程度上取決於埃弗雷恩所說的疫情持續時間。還有，刺激方案能否幫助他們度過最初的幾個月。之後，疫情還能撐兩三個月嗎？上次金融危機持續的時間更長，我記得大概有七個季度。所以，如果有辦法讓他們撐下去，讓他們還能繼續做生意，哪怕只是外賣，讓他們可以暫時解僱一些員工，但同時又能獲得工資補貼，那將會起到巨大的作用。我們已經做了一些初步的模型分析，但我們真的需要看看接下來幾週的情況會如何發展。

Your next question comes from the line of Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

你的下一個問題來自北海岸研究公司的 Kartik Mehta。

Efrain, thanks for at least trying to put together some kind of FY '21 guidance. And I'm wondering if you could just give some -- the assumptions you're making on pays per control or retention, some of the metrics that you usually talk about, to get an idea of what the backdrop is for your FY '21 guidance.

埃弗雷恩，感謝你至少嘗試整理出一些2021財年的業績指引。我想請你提供一些資訊——例如你對每控制權或留存率的薪酬所做的假設，以及你通常會提到的一些指標，以便我們了解你2021財年業績指引的背景。

Yes. Kartik, I can't get too specific about that at this point but I would say that generally I'll give you kind of a framework that we're modeling drops in pays per control consistent with some of the effects that we saw in the previous 2 contractions. So we're using that as a guide for what at least the next 3, 4 or so month look like. And as I said, I think we're going to have severe impacts, absent whatever the buffer that the stimulus provides through the -- certainly through the summer and to the early fall. So that's one.

是的。卡爾蒂克，我現在還不能透露太多細節，但我可以大致說一下，我們正在模擬每項措施的薪酬下降情況，這與前兩次經濟衰退中我們看到的一些影響相一致。所以我們以此為指導，預測至少未來三、四個月的狀況。正如我所說，我認為如果沒有刺激措施提供的緩衝——至少在夏季和初秋之前——我們將面臨嚴重的衝擊。這是第一點。

And then in terms of clients, we've used that data as a reference point for how we're trying to think about or create a framework for next year. I think many of you who have that data understand what I'm referring to when I say that. So we've incorporated that and obviously need to have a framework as we go into next year. So that's I would say at a general level, that's what we're using.

至於客戶方面，我們已經將這些數據作為參考，來思考或建構明年的工作架構。我想很多擁有這些數據的人都明白我的意思。所以我們已經將這些數據納入考量，顯然，在進入明年之際，我們需要一個框架。這就是我們目前所採用的整體方法。

And then, Efrain, at the beginning, you and Marty talked about the balance sheet. I think one of the benefits you have is you have an excellent balance sheet. And I'm wondering, your thoughts on share repurchase, would you -- do you feel comfortable enough that you would want to go back when it's appropriate in the market to buy back shares? Or are you at this point want to wait and see how things progress for the next couple of quarters, before you would want to go in the market and buy back shares?

埃弗雷恩，一開始你和馬蒂談到了資產負債表。我認為你們的優勢之一就是擁有非常優秀的資產負債表。我想問你對股票回購的看法，你是否覺得在市場行情合適的時候會回購股票？還是說你現在想先觀望未來幾季的市場走勢，再決定是否要回購股票？

Yes, Kartik, so one of the things that's challenging in an environment like this is in the absence of any other concerns, you would think that now is the time to start getting very constructive on share repurchase. Because we obviously think that the business will bounce back, and we're highly confident that that's going to occur. So that's the one side of the thought process.

是的，卡爾蒂克，在這種環境下，挑戰之一在於，如果沒有其他任何顧慮，你可能會認為現在正是開始積極推進股票回購的時候。因為我們顯然認為公司業務會反彈，而且我們對此非常有信心。這是我們思考的一個面向。

And I would say, by the way, this also -- my thoughts -- the thoughts I'm expressing also apply to the portfolio. But you have to -- and I've been through this before where we had an endogenous shock in my prior life. You have to worry about making sure that there are absolutely no questions about your liquidity, and I mean absolutely. We -- people depend on the dividend in this company. We protect that and don't want anyone to think that there is an issue there. And so shorter term until you have a very clear perspective on where you are, you protect liquidity in the short term, you ensure that capital markets are functioning the way they should, and then you make decisions. So there are those considerations that we play through. And I would say right now, right now, we are ensuring that there are no issues on that, not there would be given our cash flow generation.

順便說一句，我的想法也適用於投資組合。但是你必須──我以前也經歷過類似的情況，當時我們遭遇了內生性衝擊。你必須確保你的流動性絕對沒有問題，我是說絕對沒有。我們──人們依賴這家公司的股利。我們保護股息，不希望任何人認為這方面有問題。因此，在短期內，在你對自身處境有非常清晰的認知之前，你要保護短期流動性，確保資本市場正常運作，然後再做決策。這些都是我們需要考慮的因素。我想說的是，目前，鑑於我們的現金流狀況，我們正在確保這方面沒有任何問題。

But it also, Kartik, extends to things like extending the duration of the portfolio in order to get more yield. Right now, we are not assuming that we're going to do that. Because at this stage of the equation, we put a premium on liquidity, not that we have any issues with that. I just would just reiterate, we have undrawn revolver. We have almost a billion dollars' worth of cash, and so there's no issues there. But you've got to balance all of those pieces in terms of before you start thinking about getting constructive on share repurchase. There may be a time, we'll talk with the Board at the appropriate time and have that conversation probably. It's not now.

但卡爾蒂克，這也包括延長投資組合的久期以獲得更高收益。目前，我們並不打算這麼做。因為在現階段，我們更重視流動性，當然，我們在這方面沒有任何問題。我只想重申一下，我們有未提取的循環信貸額度。我們擁有近10億美元的現金，所以這方面沒有任何問題。但在考慮積極回購股票之前，必須權衡所有這些因素。或許將來某個時候，我們會與董事會討論這個問題。但現在還不是時候。

And then just one last question, Marty. Marty, when you look at the previous recessions, was there -- when we came out of it, did you see more small businesses wanting to go with an outsourced provider, either because of what happened or they're looking to save money? So in other words as we come out of this, could you see maybe an acceleration in sales because you have businesses that are not using outsourced services wanting to use the service?

最後一個問題，馬蒂。馬蒂，回顧之前的幾次經濟衰退，當我們走出衰退時，您是否看到更多的小型企業因為受到先前的影響或為了節省成本而選擇外包服務？換句話說，隨著我們走出這次衰退，您是否會看到銷售額加速成長，因為一些之前未使用外包服務的企業現在想要使用這項服務？

I don't think we saw -- I don't remember seeing that much of it, Kartik, at that point. But there's a couple of things that are very different in this shock that I think can help. One is the government stimulus packages and the regulation changes are very complex. And I think more businesses will say, "If I'm going to take advantage of that, I'm going to start my business or reignite my business and take advantage of some of the things that are out there. I cannot [follow] that. I need outside support." And so I think that's going to help more businesses say, "If I haven't outsourced before, or if I've outsourced to a small provider that can't provide that kind of guidance like we can, hey, I'm going to go with somebody."

卡爾蒂克，我不記得當時我們是否看到太多相關情況。但這次衝擊中確實有幾件事與以往大不相同，我認為這些方面會有所幫助。一是政府的刺激方案和監管政策的變化非常複雜。我認為會有更多企業表示：「如果我要利用這些政策來啟動或重啟業務，並利用現有的資源，我可能無法獨自完成。我需要外部支持。」 因此，我認為這將促使更多企業表示：「如果我以前沒有外包過業務，或者我外包給了無法提供像我們這樣專業指導的小供應商，那麼，嘿，我要找個更好的合作夥伴。」

Second, it's so different from a technology perspective as everyone knows. Back then, it was not all of the mobile apps. Imagine where we were 10 years ago, there was no mobile apps. Really, there was no remote working, very little remote working. All of the things that businesses now, and by the way, their employees are getting used to and those that you might employ or retain are getting used to, what can you do with a mobile app. Can you provide online training? Can you provide Pay-on-Demand? Can you provide your 401(k) balances and loans online? Can you do all these things online, connect with your employees? It's such a different environment. And I think this is going to change the workforce permanently to say, "Wow, I've seen these things that I can do remotely and through self-service. I want part of that. I don't want to necessarily do old school, somebody writing me a check or handing me a check even." I think all of these things are going to get people used to a whole new world, which are going to drive more people to the technology investments that we've made.

其次，從技術角度來看，情況截然不同，這一點大家都知道。以前可沒有這麼多行動應用。想想十年前，根本沒有行動應用。遠距辦公也幾乎不存在，或者說非常少見。現在，企業（順便說一句，他們的員工）以及那些你可能僱用或留住的員工都在逐漸習慣的各種工作方式，都可以透過行動應用來實現。你能提供線上培訓嗎？你能提供按需支付嗎？你能在線上查看員工的401(k)帳戶餘額和貸款資訊嗎？你能在線上完成所有這些事情，並與員工保持聯繫嗎？這完全是另一種環境。我認為這將永久地改變勞動市場，人們會說：「哇，我看到了這些可以遠端自助完成的事情。我也想參與其中。我不想再用老一套的方式了，例如別人給我開支票或遞給我支票。」我認為所有這些事情都會讓人們習慣一個全新的世界，這將促使更多的人投資於我們已經進行的技術。

So I think there's 2 very positive impacts here as we come out of this that could say more new business start-ups and existing businesses that reignite are going to be looking for someone like us.

所以我認為，當我們走出困境時，將會產生兩個非常積極的影響：更多的新企業成立，以及重新煥發活力的現有企業將會尋找像我們這樣的公司。

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Bryan Bergin 與 Cowen 的對話。

Thanks for the early guideposts here. And Efrain, I appreciate the LIE analogy. Thank you for that one.

感謝您之前提供的指導。還有，埃弗雷恩，我很欣賞您用“謊言”作比喻。謝謝您。

Hey, people, all I ask all of you is to remember when I was wrong that I at least tried. I led with my chin.

嘿，各位，我只求你們記住，即使我錯了，至少我也努力過了。我以堅定的信念面對一切。

There you go. I wanted to ask, just from a business mix standpoint, can you just give us some color on where you're expecting the most and the least pressure as we think about PEO and management solutions and then the various offerings within management solutions that are most and least insulated here?

好了。我想從業務組合的角度問一下，在考慮專業雇主組織 (PEO) 和管理解決方案時，您預期哪些方面壓力最大，哪些方面壓力最小？此外，在管理解決方案的各個產品中，哪些產品受到的影響最大，哪些產品受到的影響最小？

Yes. So one thing I think we should mention, I think it's been -- it's part of the, I guess, the backdrop and just take off from what Marty said, build on what he said. We're a very different business than we were in '08 and '09. At the end of this year, about half of our revenue or less than half of our revenue will be payroll. If you split our business, about 80% of our client base is under 20. But that 8 -- our revenue is split pretty evenly below 20 and above 20, 50-50. So that's a very different animal than we were in the '08, '09 time frame. And while we do apply that [book] process to how we're looking at the future, there are some differences. I think we could see, we could very well see, to Marty's point, increased demand for anything HR services-related.

是的。所以我覺得我們應該提一點，我認為這算是背景的一部分，也是基於馬蒂剛才說的，在他的基礎上展開討論。我們現在的業務和2008年、2009年相比已經截然不同了。到今年年底，我們大約一半甚至不到一半的收入將來自薪資服務。如果把我們的業務細分來看，大約80%的客戶群年齡在20歲以下。但是，我們收入在20歲以下和20歲以上客戶群之間的分配相當平均，各佔一半。所以這和2008年、2009年的情況完全不同。雖然我們確實會把之前的（帳目）流程應用到對未來的展望中，但還是有一些差異。我認為，正如馬蒂所說，我們很可能會看到，對任何與人力資源服務相關的需求都會增加。

And by the way, if I slice now the Rubik's cube -- you can't slice a Rubik's cube. But if I slice our revenue, about 50% of our revenue is derived from HR-related products. So you could very well see an increase in demand, to Marty's point, given the complexity of what Congress is about to unleash.

順便說一句，如果我現在切開魔術方塊——魔術方塊是切不開的。但如果我切開我們的收入，大約50%的收入來自人力資源相關產品。所以，正如馬蒂所說，考慮到國會即將出台的法案的複雜性，需求很可能會成長。

And let me tell you something. E-mails fly every single night here about what's in the bill, what's out, what the implications are. There's lots of good things in that bill for businesses but it requires interpretation.

我跟你說，每天晚上這裡都會收到很多關於法案內容、刪減內容以及相關影響的郵件。這項法案對企業有很多好處，但需要仔細解讀。

So I would say from an HR standpoint, you could see increased demand, which Marty has been talking about. And then on where we see more stress is on the smaller businesses who, if they don't get a lifeline over the next 6 to 8 weeks, are going to be severely impacted and stressed.

所以從人力資源的角度來看，需求可能會增加，就像馬蒂一直在提到的。而壓力更大的則是小型企業，如果它們在未來6到8週內得不到援助，將會受到嚴重影響，處境艱難。

So I would say in broad strokes, higher demand for HR and related services. That could include PEO, by the way, because we'd include that in, and more impact on smaller clients simply because of the depth and the severity of this correction.

所以總的來說，我認為對人力資源及相關服務的需求會更高。順便一提，這也可能包括專業雇主組織（PEO），因為我們會將其納入考量。此外，由於此調整的深度和嚴重性，小型客戶受到的影響更大。

Okay. And then just payroll tax holiday implications, we've gotten questions, so curious here. How should we think about the impact from a potential payroll tax holiday that might be in this final stimulus bill?

好的。接下來是關於工資稅假期政策的影響，我們收到了一些相關問題，所以很好奇。我們該如何看待最終刺激法案中可能包含的工資稅假期政策的影響？

Yes, I don't think if -- from a standpoint of interest on client funds that we withdraw and then pay those, pretty small. Of course, we won't earn much on it anyway because there's no interest. So I don't think it will be a very big impact at all.

是的，從客戶資金利息的角度來看，如果我們提取資金然後再支付利息，影響應該很小。當然，反正我們本來就賺不到多少錢，因為沒有利息。所以我認為這不會造成太大的影響。

Yes. So I thought you were talking about what the business impact, whether we think that alone would drive some significant improvement. I think you're going to have to go deeper than that to really make an impact for most clients. But Marty is right. If that's a question related to interest on funds held for clients, I think the Fed has kind of helped us there in a weird backhanded way. So it's not going to impact very much.

是的。所以我以為你是在討論業務影響，以及我們是否認為單憑這一點就能帶來顯著的改善。我認為要真正對大多數客戶產生影響，還需要更深入的分析。但馬蒂說得對。如果這個問題與客戶資金的利息有關，我認為聯準會在某種程度上以一種奇怪的方式幫了我們一把。所以它不會產生太大的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

你的下一個問題源自安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾的那條線索。

Just wanted to talk a little bit about kind of the administrative challenges tied to effecting fiscal stimulus. I'm just curious, given how close you are to that market, what thoughts you might have on the most effective way for the federal government to handle that initiative, what would seemingly be a very difficult task, given just the sheer number of small businesses in the U.S. And obviously it's important how fast it's handled. So I'm just interested in your thoughts on the challenges of effecting that change.

我想稍微談談實施財政刺激政策所面臨的一些行政挑戰。鑑於您對這個市場的了解如此深入，我很好奇您對聯邦政府如何最有效地推進這項計劃有何看法。考慮到美國小型企業的數量如此龐大，這似乎是一項非常艱鉅的任務。而且，政策的實施速度顯然也很重要。所以我很想聽聽您對如何應對這些挑戰的看法。

Yes. I think if you look back at like 2008 and '09, and of course not even close to the amount of stimulus that is being done now, things took -- I think the average time it took to get a check or money to small businesses was like 50 days. We went back and looked at it. So it was roughly a couple of months.

是的。我覺得回顧2008年和2009年，當然當時的刺激規模遠不及現在，當時的情況是──我記得小企業收到支票或資金的平均時間大概是50天。我們回顧了一下數據。所以大概要幾個月的時間。

That needs to be so much faster now because of in particular the shutdowns that have occurred in many states of small businesses. They need to pay the rent. They need to pay employer -- employees to keep them with them, which -- because you're going to come back, I think, to a pretty good employment. Two weeks ago, I said it's amazing. Their biggest issue was, "How do I find employees to fill my jobs? And now "I want to keep them." So I think speed is such an essence and -- of such an essence. And I do think that we could -- payroll processors could be such a help because we could immediately continue to pay that payroll that we paid last week or the week before, and then just look for those funds from a government program, the SBA, whoever.

現在速度必須更快，尤其是在許多州的小型企業停業的情況下。他們需要支付租金，需要支付員工薪水以留住他們，因為我認為他們最終會找到一份不錯的工作。兩週前，我說過這很不可思議。他們最大的問題是「如何找到員工來填補空缺？」而現在，「我想留住他們。」所以我認為速度至關重要。而且我認為，薪資處理機構可以發揮很大的作用，因為我們可以立即繼續支付上週或上上週支付的工資，然後從政府專案、小型企業管理局（SBA）或其他機構申請資金。

I mean however they do it is fine with me as long as they give that backstop, and it does look like they're going to do that to give that payroll. But if it's a long SBA loan process that takes paperwork, that -- et cetera, et cetera, that's not going to help as many. Many you've seen have already laid off employees across the country, whether they be hotels or whatever. And I think they got to move really quick.

我的意思是，只要他們能提供保障，無論他們採取什麼方式我都同意，而且看起來他們確實打算這麼做來支付員工薪水。但如果申請小型企業管理局（SBA）貸款需要冗長繁瑣的文書工作等等，那就幫不了多少人了。你已經看到全國各地很多企業都在裁員，不管是飯店還是其他產業。我認為他們必須迅速行動。

Administratively, one of the great things with our size and our experience is that we have over 200 compliance specialists. Our compliance people have been on the phone with the federal government, Congress, the Treasury, the IRS, the SBA, you name it, and are working with them not only to answer their questions about what could be done but also trying to help say, "This could be the fastest way to do something," and so forth. And so we're very supportive of the work that the government is doing, and we're very much in touch with them. And we think we could turn it around pretty quickly. We have a lot of resources, 1,500 people in IT, and we've been talking daily. And they understand that depending on what comes out, we're going to -- everything gets turned to that. Our first thing is to comply with these regulations and be sure our employees and our clients and their employees are taken care of.

從行政管理角度來看，憑藉我們公司的規模和經驗，我們的一大優勢是擁有超過200名合規專家。我們的合規人員與聯邦政府、國會、財政部、國稅局、小型企業管理局等各級機構保持著密切聯繫，不僅解答他們關於可以採取哪些措施的問題，還努力提供「這可能是最快的解決方案」等等。因此，我們非常支持政府的工作，並與他們保持密切的溝通。我們相信能夠迅速扭轉局面。我們擁有豐富的資源，IT部門有1500名員工，我們每天都在溝通。他們明白，一切都將圍繞著最終推出的政策。我們的首要任務是遵守這些法規，並確保我們的員工、客戶及其員工的權益得到保障。

Great. That's encouraging. And then as my follow-up, obviously there's a lot of moving pieces right now. But I just wanted to get your sense for the impacts of social distancing and working from home may have on your sales force's ability to sell new business, particularly within PEO where you have enough white space that maybe a material slowdown in new business starts is less of a headwind. I'm just curious if you'd expect the sales cycle to lengthen, to slow considerably, just on account of less face-to-face interaction, all else equal.

太好了，這令人鼓舞。接下來我想問的是，目前情況瞬息萬變，有很多因素在運作。我只是想了解一下，您認為保持社交距離和居家辦公可能會對銷售團隊拓展新業務的能力產生哪些影響，尤其是在PEO（專業雇主組織）領域，因為您的市場空白較大，新業務啟動速度的顯著放緩可能影響不大。我只是好奇，在其他條件不變的情況下，您是否認為僅僅因為面對面交流減少，銷售週期就會延長或大幅放緩。

Yes, it's kind of a mixed -- it's a mixed situation. While we said leads were down a little bit, there's still pretty strong lead flow coming in for payroll and HR. And because we've had so many years of virtual selling, we have a lot of experience in selling, which I mentioned earlier. We have now taken that training that have been used for virtual sales, which by the way is virtual sales is lower cost and pretty productive from a web lead perspective. And so we're now training the field sales force, "hey, here's a way if you have to do it remotely and someone doesn't want to meet. Here's how we demo the product. We can use the same tools." For the field sales force where they would have demoed something in person, "Here's how you can do some things online. And here -- and the good news is everything can be done electronically, so you don't have to be in front of a client to have them sign something necessarily." A lot of the document management can all be done electronically and kind of a DocuSign kind of features, and then all of that sent to remote onboarding specialists who can set up the client in a very short period of time.

是的，情況比較複雜。雖然我們之前提到銷售線索略有下降，但薪資和人力資源的銷售線索仍然相當充足。而且，由於我們擁有多年的線上銷售經驗，我們在銷售方面累積了豐富的經驗，這一點我之前也提到過。我們現在運用了先前用於線上銷售的培訓方法，順便說一句，線上銷售成本更低，而且從網路銷售線索的角度來看效率很高。因此，我們現在正在培訓一線銷售人員：「嘿，如果你們必須遠端操作，而客戶又不想見面，這裡有一種方法。這是我們演示產品的方式。我們可以使用相同的工具。」 對於以前需要面對面演示產品的一線銷售人員，我們會告訴他們：「這是在線操作的方法。好消息是，所有操作都可以透過文件都可以完成，所以你們不必以電子方式完成，的功能，然後所有這些都會發送給遠端入職專家，他們可以在很短的時間內為客戶完成設定。

So it certainly is going to -- it has some impact in clients not wanting to focus on it right now or meet in person. But I do think that we have a vast amount of experience and a very effective virtual sales team that will continue to grow, frankly. And the field sales force is finding ways to get in touch with their clients, get in front of their clients through e-mail, through chat, through calls. And they're very receptive to that and appreciative that we're here.

所以，這肯定會對客戶造成一定影響——他們現在可能不想把注意力放在這上面，也不想見面。但我認為我們擁有豐富的經驗和一支非常有效率的虛擬銷售團隊，坦白說，這支團隊還會繼續成長。我們的銷售團隊也想辦法透過電子郵件、聊天和電話等方式與客戶聯繫，與客戶面對面交流。客戶們對此非常接受，也很感激我們的存在。

It's amazing that many clients or prospects think that because you're home, they're not going to be able to reach you. That is not the case at all. We've never lost any contact with anybody. And as I said, our IT team has done a tremendous job in moving 15,000 people remote and then being able to handle it.

很多客戶或潛在客戶都認為，既然你在家辦公，他們就聯絡不上你了，這真是令人驚訝。事實並非如此。我們從未與任何人失去聯繫。正如我所說，我們的IT團隊出色地完成了15,000名員工遠距辦公的過渡工作，並且能夠妥善處理所有相關事宜。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

Efrain, really appreciated your remarks at the beginning, especially the segue from being human to talking about finance.

埃弗雷恩，非常感謝你開場時的發言，特別是你從談論人性過渡到談論金融的那段話。

Thank you, Jeff. Hope you're doing okay.

謝謝你，傑夫。希望你一切都好。

Yes, thank God. Just one quick question. You talked about how, I guess, your business or your customer-facing business is different now. I'm just wondering internally when we compare your business to the prior shocks or the prior recession, is there anything different? Or is there more of a variable costs structure than you had before? Any color would be great.

是的，謝天謝地。我還有一個小問題。您剛才提到，我想，您的業務，或者說您面向客戶的業務，現在和以前有所不同。我想問的是，從內部來看，如果將您的業務與先前的衝擊或經濟衰退時期進行比較，是否有什麼不同？或者說，您現在的成本結構是否比以前更可變？任何細節都歡迎。

Yes. And I'll let Marty talk about what substantively is different in terms of how we operate. But I think look, if you were in a service business, I said 65% are people and 35% variable, which is the [NAP] comparison, it's 65% people and 35% other. Not all of that is variable. I would say that we've moved the cost structure in such a way that more of that cost structure supports the other parts of the business. I would say that structure, you guys who are -- you guys but you who are analyzing it, know that's the way most the split of costs that most businesses have. It's distributed differently. And so the implication of that is that we don't have as many costs tied up in one part of the business that we had during the last downturn. And we've got a little bit more diversification across the cost base so that we support more business that is not purely payroll. Nothing wrong with supporting payroll, but as I said before, half of our business now is HR-related. So I'll let Marty...

是的。我會讓馬蒂來談談我們在運作方式上的實質差異。但我想說的是，如果你從事服務業，正如我之前所說，65%的成本是人力成本，35%是變動成本，這與[NAP]的比較結果一致，即65%是人力成本，35%是其他成本。並非所有變動成本都是可變的。我認為我們已經調整了成本結構，使更多成本能夠支援業務的其他部分。我想說的是，你們這些分析過的人都知道，大多數企業的成本組成都是這樣的。只是分配方式有所不同。這意味著，與上次經濟低迷時期相比，我們現在沒有那麼多成本集中在業務的某個特定部分。我們的成本基礎更加多元化，因此我們能夠支持更多並非純粹的工資業務。當然，支持工資業務本身沒有錯，但正如我之前所說，我們現在一半的業務都與人力資源相關。所以我會讓馬蒂…

Yes, and then I think just from an internal flexibility, we're on a unified, what we call unified communications system that we've installed over the last number of years. And so we can easily move calls all across the country even to -- which we have never tested before. Having all of these people work from home, it's an incredible technology difference than it was in the last shock. And you have a lot of flexibility to have teams in different areas and move teams around and so forth. So there's a lot of flexibility here as to how you control costs, how you look at the -- your employee base and give them support tools. And we've always been good obviously at controlling our costs and I think having a great focus on margin, and we'll continue to do that. And there's probably as much or more flexibility now than there ever was.

是的，而且我認為，從內部靈活性來看，我們使用的是一套統一通訊系統，這是我們過去幾年一直在部署的。因此，我們可以輕鬆地將通話轉移到全國各地，甚至包括我們以前從未測試過的地區。讓所有這些員工在家辦公，與上次疫情衝擊相比，技術方面發生了巨大的變化。您可以靈活地將團隊分佈在不同地區，並進行團隊調動等等。因此，在控製成本、管理員工以及為他們提供支援工具方面，我們擁有很大的靈活性。我們一直很擅長控製成本，並且非常注重利潤率，我們將繼續這樣做。現在的靈活性可能比以往任何時候都更高。

Your next question comes from the line of Samad Samana with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Samad Samana 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Efrain, maybe just one quick question for you. On -- I know you guys mentioned a couple of different anecdotal comments about what you've seen in maybe the second half of March. But if I could maybe triangulate a little more precisely on new booked business, what have you seen happen in terms of new bookings over the last couple of weeks? And then what new bookings type of assumptions are you making for fiscal '21? Thanks again for taking my questions, and hopefully everybody's families are safe and healthy.

埃弗雷恩，我可能要問你一個問題。我知道你們提到了一些關於三月下半月情況的零星評論。但如果能更具體地了解一下新預訂業務的情況，過去幾週你們觀察到的新預訂量如何？你們對2021財年的新預訂量做了哪些假設？再次感謝你回答我的問題，希望大家的家人平安健康。

Yes, Samad, so we wouldn't give you -- we wouldn't give precise info on bookings, and then we wouldn't typically give precise bookings on what we anticipate. But I think we all know that given lead flow, bookings are down. And given what we expect in the remainder of the quarter, we also expect them to be down. Do we expect it to be -- fall off a cliff? Absolutely not for many of the reasons that Marty said. If the stimulus gives a jolt, it may actually be helpful. There are things in that package that may cause the businesses that are there to book other services even if they're not booking base payroll. But this is a challenging environment for sure.

是的，薩馬德，所以我們不會提供——我們不會提供關於預訂量的精確信息，通常我們也不會給出我們預期的精確預訂量。但我想我們都知道，鑑於目前的銷售線索量，預訂量有所下降。而且考慮到我們對本季剩餘時間的預期，我們也預期預訂量會下降。我們預計預訂量會斷崖式下跌嗎？絕對不會，原因有很多，正如馬蒂所說。如果刺激計畫能起到提振作用，那其實可能會有所幫助。該計劃中的一些措施可能會促使那些即使沒有支付基本工資的企業預訂其他服務。但可以肯定的是，目前的環境充滿挑戰。

Maybe if I could ask just one from a competitive standpoint. It sounds like price was able to stick during the F 3Q. I'm curious if you seen a change in competitive behavior, either pricing more aggressively to capture as much business as possible before the gears start to slow down, or maybe just how are your competitors reacting from a pricing perspective in the current environment.

或許我可以問一個關於競爭方面的問題。聽起來第三季價格保持穩定。我很好奇您是否觀察到競爭對手的行為發生了變化，例如為了在市場放緩之前盡可能多地搶佔市場份額而採取了更激進的定價策略，或者您的競爭對手在當前環境下是如何應對價格問題的。

Yes. I'm not seeing -- there's some 3 months here and there, first 3 months of this service or that service, but not seeing too much, too aggressive yet. Does it get more aggressive? It may.

是的。我還沒看到──偶爾會有三個月左右的過渡期，像是這項服務或那項服務的前三個月，但目前為止還沒看到太多、太激進的措施。以後會更激進嗎？也許會。

On the other hand, I think when you look at it, again as I mentioned earlier, I think businesses are worried about a lot more than when you think about our average business that might pay a couple of thousand dollars a year, $2,400 a year, $2,500 a year, they're looking for -- whether they save $200 or $500 is not that critical to them, right? It's now it's, "Hey, can you give me the service? And can you give me the service that I need -- the service, excuse me, and the products that I need to survive in this environment?" So I'm sure we'll see a little bit more discounting here and there. But frankly it's a little bit misguided in the fact of what clients are looking for, in my opinion.

另一方面，我認為仔細想想，就像我之前提到的，企業現在關心的遠不止這些。想想那些每年可能只花幾千美元、兩千四百美元、兩千五百美元的普通企業，他們真正關心的——省下兩百美元還是五百美元對他們來說並不那麼重要，對吧？他們現在關心的是：「嘿，你能給我服務嗎？你能給我我需要的服務嗎？抱歉，我說的是，你能提供我在這種環境下生存下去所需的服務和服務產品嗎？」所以我相信我們會看到一些折扣。但坦白說，在我看來，這種做法有點偏離了客戶真正想要的是什麼。

Yes. To Marty's point, we -- it's easy to overlook it. But when you have response times measured in seconds, I'd ask you to ask all of our competitors what their response time are. May -- service may not seem like it's all that important in other environments. I can tell you based on the interactions we're having, and we could post all of the comments that we've gotten from clients about how responsive we've been on the website, it's going to become very, very critical. And one of the things that we're very proud of, and Marty said it earlier, is that we moved everyone to work from home, and our service times have been tremendous, and our response times to clients have been tremendous. And they are asking a lot of questions. And if the -- if you can't get to them and you can't service them, they're probably going to have some second thoughts about whether they continue with you.

是的。正如馬蒂所說，我們——這一點很容易被忽視。但當回應時間以秒為單位衡量時，我建議您問問我們所有的競爭對手，他們的回應時間是多少。或許在其他情況下，服務看起來就沒那麼重要。但我可以根據我們目前的互動情況告訴您，而且我們可以把客戶對我們網站響應速度的所有評價都發佈出來，這將會變得非常非常關鍵。我們非常自豪的一點，正如馬蒂之前提到的，就是我們讓所有員工居家辦公，我們的服務速度和客戶回應速度都非常出色。客戶提出了很多問題。如果您無法聯繫到他們，無法為他們提供服務，他們很可能會重新考慮是否繼續與您合作。

Your next question comes from the line of Pete Christiansen with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的皮特·克里斯蒂安森。

Thank you for the update and certainly for your poignant, poignant sentiments earlier. Good news, I think we're hearing that in the bailout so far, that the stimulus is providing $10 million, up to $10 million for individual businesses provided in the layoffs. So perhaps there's some upside to the outlook here, so fingers crossed. And appreciate your thoughts that the devils will be -- the devil will be in the details.

感謝您提供的最新消息，也感謝您之前那些令人動容的感言。好消息是，我們目前了解到的紓困方案中，刺激方案將為因裁員而遭受損失的單一企業提供最高 1,000 萬美元的援助。所以，前景或許會有所好轉，讓我們拭目以待。我也同意您所說的「魔鬼藏在細節裡」的觀點。

But I was just hoping if we can go back to that Rubik's cube very quickly, and if we can quantify your exposure between hourly workers versus salaried workers and perhaps what you've seen earlier. And then as a follow-up, looking back to the last downturn, it looks like the dividend rate was held steady for quite a bit, at risk of pulling the cart in front of the horse here. How should we think about that? Would we expect to see something similar at least over the near term?

但我只是希望我們能盡快回到之前討論的那個複雜問題，量化一下小時工和領固定薪水員工之間的風險敞口，以及您之前觀察到的情況。另外，回顧上次經濟衰退，股息率似乎維持了相當長一段時間，這可能本末倒置。我們該如何看待這種情況？至少在短期內，我們是否預期會看到類似的情況？

Yes, Pete, I don't have much for you on hourly versus salary. I'd have to get that breakdown and figure that out. So -- and -- don't have a precise answer on that.

是的，皮特，關於時薪和固定工資的區別，我不太清楚。我得先把具體數據整理出來才能算清楚。所以——而且——我在這方面沒有確切的答案。

With respect to the dividend, look, our earnings amply support the dividend we have. Whether we should increase it will depend in part on the discussion that we have with the Board and where we are when we present the plan. We try to peg it around 80% or so. Obviously in some situations, it might be a little bit higher. So we'll have to go through that conversation with the Board in terms of what level they want to set it at.

關於股息，我們目前的獲利足以支撐現有的股息水準。是否應該提高股息，部分取決於我們與董事會的討論，以及我們提交計劃時的財務狀況。我們盡量將股息維持在80%左右。當然，在某些情況下，股息可能會略高一些。因此，我們需要與董事會進行討論，確定他們希望將股利設定在什麼水準。

Your next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

你的下一個問題來自 Lisa Ellis 與 MoffettNathanson 的對話。

A couple of questions on workers' compensation actually. I know we are, I guess, presumably going from an abrupt period where workers' comp claims and premiums were very low, to probably the inverse of that. Can you just remind us, I know the premiums going up will actually be a tailwind to your insurance business, but in general how does that kind of dramatic shift impact you?

關於工傷賠償，我有幾個問題。我知道我們可能正經歷著從工傷賠償申請和保費都非常低的時期，到截然相反的時期。您能否提醒我們一下，我知道保費上漲實際上對貴公司的保險業務有利，但總體而言，這種劇烈的變化會對您產生什麼影響？

Yes, it would be a tailwind to the insurance business. It would also have a modest impact on our PEO business from a revenue standpoint. So both of those would be positives. On the other hand, where we are, where we have some at-risk exposure in -- on the workers' comp side in the PEO, we'd have to monitor that. So I think it's on balance more to the positive side of the ledger, and then you've just got to manage reserves appropriately.

是的，這對保險業務來說無疑是利好消息。從收入角度來看，它也會對我們的PEO業務產生一定影響。所以這兩方面都是利好。另一方面，就我們目前的情況而言，在PEO的工傷賠償方面存在一些風險敞口，我們需要密切關注。因此，我認為整體而言利大於弊，接下來只需妥善管理準備金即可。

Yes. And then on that point, just to follow up because I know we get questions about this, can you just remind us -- I was looking in the K. It looks like your reserve level on workers' comp is something like 170 million or so in total across like short term and long term?

是的。關於這一點，我想跟進一下，因為我知道我們經常會收到關於這方面的問題，您能提醒一下嗎——我查了一下K表。看起來你們的工傷賠償儲備金總額（包括短期和長期）大約是1.7億美元左右？

Yes, that's correct.

是的，沒錯。

And then how was that capped or reinsured again? Can you just remind us? Like how much actual risk exposure do you really have? Is that the way to think about it as kind of that number? Or how does that work exactly?

那麼，這部分風險是如何設定上限或進行再保險的呢？能再提醒一下嗎？例如，你們實際面臨的風險敞口到底有多大？是不是可以用某個數字來衡量呢？或是具體是怎麼運作的？

Yes, I'd have to look back at -- I think we say in the K what we have in terms of exposure. I think it's around a million. I want to say per case. A million dollar workers' comp case is a very, very unusual case in my experience. It's capped there. But beyond that, by the way, that's only part of the equation. What you have to look at is the development of claims, which we look at on a quarterly basis and add to reserves as they're needed. So we're -- our typical workers' comp adjustments are modest. And generally we end up in a positive reserve situation. So we should be able to manage well. There'll be no change in terms of the way we manage. We don't anticipate a significant impact at this point.

是的，我得回顧一下——我想我們在K表中提到了我們面臨的風險敞口。我記得大概是每起案件一百萬美元左右。就我的經驗而言，一百萬美元的工傷賠償案件非常非常罕見。賠償上限就是這個金額。但除此之外，順便說一句，這只是問題的一部分。你還得關注索賠的發展情況，我們會按季度進行評估，並根據需要增加準備金。所以，我們——我們通常的工傷賠償調整幅度不大。而且通常情況下，我們的準備金都是正的。因此，我們應該能夠很好地應對。我們的管理方式不會有任何改變。目前我們預計不會產生重大影響。

Got it. Okay. Okay. And then just a quick follow-up one on the attrition. I think you've said in the past that about 9 points of your attrition each year come from businesses going out of business, just in like a normal period. Is that about the right number? And then can you just dimension how much worse that got back in '09 or after 9/11?

明白了。好的。好的。然後還有一個關於人員流失的後續問題。我記得您之前說過，每年大約有9個百分點的人員流失是由於企業倒閉造成的，這在正常時期是正常的。這個數字差不多嗎？您能否具體說明一下，2009年或911事件之後，人員流失惡化了多少？

Yes. So what you're doing is taking about half of the 18% that we would average. I think it's close. It's somewhere between 8% and 9%. You can -- we'll see a spike. I can't call it yet, Lisa. But if we go back to '08, '09, it spiked up to about 23%, 24% but our base was about 20, 21. Most of that 3 to 4 was coming from...

是的。所以你現在做的，大概是平均18%的一半。我覺得差不多，應該在8%到9%之間。你可以看到——我們會看到一個高峰。麗莎，我現在還不能確定。但如果我們回顧2008年、2009年，當時高峰達到了23%、24%左右，而我們的基數在20%、21%左右。那3%到4%的成長主要來自…

Yes, out of business.

是的，已經倒閉了。

I'm sorry, Marty's -- Marty...

對不起，馬蒂——馬蒂…

No, it's exactly what Efrain said. It would -- it's most of that came from out of business and -- but Lisa, remember that one went longer. So this one is just kind of hard to measure because we think we're going to have -- depending on the stimulus, that could hold the front here for a couple of months if it really could help them quickly, and then how long does it go before they open back up or give up and go out of business. So it's going to be very interesting. It doesn't feel like it's going to be as bad as '08 and '09 because that went on for 7 quarters and businesses couldn't survive. These, hopefully they could furlough, they could come back. I don't -- I really -- obviously hard to predict a few weeks into this but I don't think it's going to be -- we wouldn't expect it would be that bad. It might be more -- it's going to be more of a shock in the first, probably maybe first quarter of next year but then bounce back pretty quickly, we would think at this point.

不，正如埃弗雷恩所說。大部分的損失都來自倒閉的企業——但麗莎，記住上次持續時間更長。所以這次的情況很難預測，因為我們認為——這取決於刺激措施，如果真的能迅速幫助他們，或許能暫時緩解目前的困境幾個月，然後他們又能堅持多久才能重新開業，或者放棄並倒閉。所以情況會非常有趣。感覺這次不會像2008年和2009年那麼糟糕，因為那兩次持續了七個季度，企業根本無法生存。希望這次他們能暫時解僱員工，然後重新開業。我——我真的——顯然，在疫情爆發幾週後很難預測，但我認為不會——我們預計情況不會那麼糟。可能會更嚴重——明年第一季可能會更令人震驚，但之後會很快反彈，我們目前認為是這樣。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Mark Marcon 與 Baird 的對話。

Marty and Efrain, best wishes to you and your families. With regards to the stimulus, what elements that you've heard discussed around the stimulus are you most excited about that could potentially have a positive impact?

馬蒂和埃弗雷恩，祝福您和您的家人一切順利。關於經濟刺激計劃，在您聽到的討論中，哪些方面最讓您感到興奮，並可能產生正面影響？

Well, definitely the small loan program, the small business loan program. Anything that as I've mentioned, that would keep paying employees of small businesses and keep them in place is really important depending on how long this goes. If it's shorter, then -- if it's shorter rather than longer, that could make a big difference as to whether a business goes out of business or not and they keep their employees employed.

當然，小額貸款項目和小型企業貸款項目至關重要。正如我之前提到的，任何能夠幫助小型企業維持員工薪資、保住員工職位的專案都非常重要，這取決於疫情持續時間的長短。如果疫情持續時間較短，那麼——如果疫情持續時間較短而不是較長——這可能會對企業能否倒閉、能否保住員工的飯碗產生重大影響。

I think also, the unemployment benefits is also another way that a small business might say, "Hey, I'm going to furlough you. I might pay you." There's been different rules discussed about paying half. There's certain rules that are out there about sharing a job where you could furlough, you could pay someone, you could keep 2 people. Instead of laying off, you got 2 people. Instead of laying off one and keeping one, you could have them job share and then make it up with unemployment. That could have some impact depending on whether they -- how they handle those regulations.

我認為，失業救濟金也是小企業委婉表達「嘿，我要暫時解僱你，但我可能會給你薪水」的一種方式。關於支付一半工資，已經討論過不同的規定。還有一些關於共享崗位的規定，允許企業暫時解僱員工，支付部分薪資，或保留兩名員工。這樣一來，與其裁員，不如保留兩名員工。與其裁掉一名員工保留另一名員工，不如讓他們共享職位，然後用失業救濟金來彌補損失。這可能會產生一些影響，具體取決於他們如何處理這些規定。

I think anything around supporting small business and employees with their wages is the most important to me. Hey, the direct checks can't hurt but I'm not sure what that's going to do as much as from a business standpoint as keeping businesses going. That's kind of how I think of it anyway at this stage based on what we've seen.

我認為，任何能幫助小型企業和員工維持生計的事情對我來說都至關重要。當然，直接發放支票肯定不會有什麼壞處，但我不太確定從商業角度來看，這在維持企業營運方面究竟能起到多大作用。至少就目前的情況來看，我是這麼想的。

What's your level of confidence that that's -- that those elements that you cited are going to go through based on all the interactions that you've had?

根據你們之間的所有互動，你對你提到的那些因素將會發生多大信心？

Pretty strong. Pretty strong. I think there has been very little disagreement on the small business loan program. There has been -- we still don't know how they're going to procedurally enact it. That is important but that's not clear yet. But I do think based on all the discussion, they're going to try to do it as quickly as possible with as little red tape as possible, and that will be very important. But I feel pretty good that those things are going to get enacted. They haven't been argued much at all. It's been more of the large business stimulus, giving money to the airlines, et cetera, that seems to have the bigger arguments.

相當有力。相當有力。我認為在小型企業貸款計劃方面幾乎沒有什麼爭議。目前存在一些問題——我們仍然不知道他們將如何正式實施該計劃。這一點很重要，但目前還不清楚。但我認為，根據所有討論來看，他們會盡可能快速地推進，並盡可能減少繁文縟節，這一點至關重要。我對這些措施最終能夠實施感到非常樂觀。這些措施幾乎沒有引起任何爭議。相較之下，對大型企業的刺激計劃，例如向航空公司等提供資金，似乎引發了更大的爭論。

What sort of a marketing program could you put in place in order to take advantage of that? Because that -- obviously your capabilities to deal with something like that would be far greater than any independent company's.

為了利用這一點，您可以製定什麼樣的行銷方案？因為很顯然，您處理這類事情的能力將遠遠超過任何獨立公司。

Yes, very much so. I've already positioned the marketing to even over a week ago about how we can help you. And we've had webinars that have been kind of blowing the doors off from the number of people and CPAs to join those webinars because they want to know about it. So I think we're well positioned from a marketing and training perspective for our clients and prospects to take advantage of those.

是的，確實如此。早在一週多前，我就已經著手進行市場推廣，宣傳我們如何為您提供協助。我們舉辦的網路研討會反應熱烈，參與人數眾多，註冊會計師們都想了解相關資訊。因此，我認為從行銷和培訓的角度來看，我們已經做好了充分的準備，可以幫助我們的客戶和潛在客戶充分利用這些資源。

Great. If I could shift gears just for the follow-up component. Can you just talk about the percentage of business that you have in New York and California and the states that have gone through the shutdowns and what you ended up seeing in those states during the last [Audio Gap] days?

好的。如果可以的話，我想換個話題，問一下後續問題。您能否談談您在紐約、加州以及其他經歷過停工的州的業務佔比，以及在過去幾天[Audio Gap]期間您在這些州觀察到的情況？

Yes. It's -- there's a number of businesses, not all of them are the small businesses. But I think -- I do think it's -- it might be up around the [four] -- well, New York and California alone, I don't have that data. For all of the states that are shut down, which includes New Jersey, Illinois and California, New York, of course, we kind of follow the population. So it's probably around [15%] or so that are in those. But again, they're not all small businesses that are necessarily impacted by the shutdowns and partial shutdowns that you're seeing.

是的。有很多企業受到影響，並非全是小型企業。但我認為——我確實認為——可能在[4]左右——嗯，僅紐約州和加利福尼亞州，我沒有具體數據。對於所有已經關閉的州，包括新澤西州、伊利諾伊州、加利福尼亞州和紐約州，當然，我們通常會根據人口數量來統計。所以，這些州的受影響企業可能佔[15%]左右。但再次強調，並非所有受到此次全面停業或部分停業影響的企業都是小型企業。

Okay. And what were you seeing in the states that are shut down in terms of like these -- the very recent trends?

好的。那麼，在那些已經封鎖的州，你觀察到最近的趨勢是什麼？

Very early but mostly we're seeing more of the -- I'd say, "I'm furloughing. I'm staying open." I'm doing like restaurants and that stuff. Again, restaurants being 5% or 6% but that's where you're seeing the most impact. They're saying, "Hey, I'm going to try to furlough people. I'm going to try to keep my employees, maybe only keep 3 of them out of 6, or 10 out of 20. But I'm staying open so far." And again, those people in Flex, in that survey that I mentioned early on, we've gotten a huge response on that. And it's still been 50% are minimal impact at this point. And another 40% are saying, "I've done some layoffs or furloughs but I'm continuing to run." That's all been very good news.

現在還處於早期階段，但我們看到的情況主要是——我會說，「我暫時解雇了一些員工，但我仍然繼續營業。」例如餐飲業之類的。餐飲業受影響的比例大概在5%到6%之間，但這是受影響最大的產業。他們說，「嘿，我打算暫時解僱一些員工。我打算盡量留住我的員工，也許6個員工裡只留3個，或者20個員工裡只留10個。但到目前為止，我仍然在營業。」還有，我在前面提到的那份關於Flex的調查問卷，我們收到了大量的回饋。目前仍有50%的人表示受到的影響很小。另有40%的人表示，「我進行了一些裁員或暫時解僱，但我仍然在繼續運作。」這些都是非常好的消息。

What we don't have a great handle on yet is any losses because you're going to see those more probably next week or end of this week if they're completely going out of business. But more of the feeling is, "Hey, I'm going to try to hang on here, see what the stimulus is, try to furlough my employees so I keep them and continue to do what I can with minimal staff."

我們目前還無法準確掌握損失情況，因為如果他們徹底倒閉，可能要到下週或本週末才會看到更多損失數據。但更多的人是：“嘿，我要努力堅持下去，看看政府會出台什麼刺激措施，盡量讓員工暫時休假，這樣就能留住他們，用最少的人手繼續做我能做的事情。”

Great. And then one last one.

太好了。最後一個。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

about what you're...

關於你正在做的事情…

Mark, you're breaking up there. Could you try that again?

馬克，你剛才那邊訊號不好。你能再試一次嗎？

Yes, just the portfolio composition with regards to the flow balance, what are you seeing there

是的，就資金流量平衡而言，您指的是投資組合的組成，您那邊的情況如何？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

of the...

的...

You mean securities in the oil industry, Mark? Or...

馬克，你指的是石油業的證券嗎？還是…

Securities in the oil industry, your muni portfolio.

石油業的證券，您的市政債券投資組合。

Yes. It's solid. We haven't had any issues, haven't had seen any impairments of any securities. Obviously, we invest in very highly liquid and highly safe securities. So -- And we had a few in the oil industry but we haven't had any impairments. But it's a very small part of the portfolio.

是的，很穩健。我們沒有遇到任何問題，也沒有看到任何證券出現減損。顯然，我們投資的是流動性極高且安全性極高的證券。所以——我們之前也投資了一些石油業，但沒有出現任何減損。不過，這部分投資在我們投資組合中所佔比例很小。

Your next question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Thanks so much for the hard work here. Just on the margin, just wanted to clarify. It looks like you're guiding to, I think, 35 versus the 36 this year.

非常感謝您的辛勤付出。我只是想確認一下，您今年的預測似乎是35而不是36。

Yes.

是的。

Is that just a function of the decremental margin of -- sorry, Efrain, go ahead.

那隻是遞減邊際的一個函數嗎？ ——抱歉，埃弗雷恩，請繼續。

Yes, Tien-Tsin. So yes, I just want to say preliminarily, we see it around 35. Yes, what's happening, Tien-Tsin, is right now my assumption is the portfolio is down around 20 million, maybe a bit higher. That portfolio drops straight to the bottom line without a lot of expense offsets that we assume that we're going to take actions to obviously offset expenses in other areas. But it's hard to -- it's hard in the short term at this point off of 6 weeks of data to say here's how we go after to replace some of that margin.

是的，田進。所以，我想先說明一下，初步來看，我們預計在35左右。是的，田進，目前的情況是，我估計投資組合的虧損在2,000萬美元左右，可能略高一些。如果沒有大量的費用抵消，投資組合的虧損將直接影響淨利。我們預計會採取措施來抵消其他領域的支出。但是，僅憑六週的數據，很難在短期內確定如何彌補部分利潤損失。

I would say we're pretty good at it. If you remember '08, '09, we took a tremendous hit on the drop in the portfolio, nowhere near as severe here, and found a way over time to make it up. But yes, that's one component of what creates the drop in margin.

我認為我們在這方面做得相當不錯。如果你還記得 08 年和 09 年，當時我們的投資組合暴跌，我們遭受了巨大的損失，雖然這次的損失遠沒有那麼嚴重，但我們最終找到了彌補損失的方法。不過，這確實是導致利潤率下降的因素之一。

Okay. That makes sense. So you're being conservative here. If things get a little bit worse, there's room to do more. But you're just seeing -- calling it as you see it and then you can move on. Got it.

好的，明白了。所以你現在採取的是保守策略。如果情況再惡化一些，還有進一步的因應空間。但你現在只是根據實際情況做出判斷，然後你就可以繼續下一步了。我明白了。

And then just really quickly, I know a lot of people asked good questions on the outsourcing, what happens on the recovery. How about on PEO? I'm curious if we could see a shift there, if people want to manage their medical side a little bit better. But also, I guess the risk that your carriers might up prices in anticipation of higher [costs] and then might price out others. I'm trying to better understand how you think about PEO here, given that you've put some more capital into that business in the last 3 years.

然後，我想快速地問一下，我知道很多人問了關於外包以及復甦方面的問題。那麼PEO（專業雇主組織）呢？我很好奇，如果人們希望更好地管理自己的醫療事務，我們是否會看到這方面的轉變。但同時，我也想到，保險公司可能會因為預期成本上漲而提高價格，導致其他一些保險公司被拒於門外。鑑於您在過去三年裡對PEO業務投入了更多資金，我想更深入了解您對PEO的看法。

Yes. Tien-Tsin, I mean it's a great question. So here's how at least some preliminary thinking on that. If you have a lot of costs rippling through your health care plans, you may not feel them at first. But eventually you're going to feel them, and then your clients are going to be impacted to one extent or another.

是的，田心，我的意思是，這是一個很好的問題。所以，我先簡單思考一下。如果你的醫療保健計劃中存在大量成本，你一開始可能不會感覺到。但最終你會感受到，然後你的客戶也會在不同程度上受到影響。

Through the course of this year and as we have managed the integration of Oasis, what we've seen is there's a tremendous opportunity to operate a PEO-ASO hybrid model where you have an ASO with the provision of benefits from our insurance agency. And in some ways and sometimes, it's better for you to go through our insurance agency on the PEO instead of being on some sort of PEO master plan. So I think you're going to have to figure out some -- be flexible and agile in terms of what you provide on the benefits side and what solutions you provide, either one-off through an insurance agency, a master plan or some other arrangements.

今年以來，隨著我們對 Oasis 的整合，我們發現 PEO-ASO 混合模式蘊藏著巨大的機會。在這種模式下，您可以利用 ASO 服務，同時透過我們的保險代理機構提供福利。在某些情況下，透過我們的保險代理機構以 PEO 的形式提供服務，比採用某種 PEO 總體規劃更為有利。因此，我認為您需要靈活調整福利方面的服務內容和解決方案，無論是透過保險代理機構提供一次性服務，還是採用總體規劃或其他安排。

So I think what we've seen is that ASO and PEO kind of converging. And in some cases, full PEO is the better model for some clients. In some cases, ASO is the better model for other clients. So you could see shifts between those categories depending on what happens in each of those markets as we go through the year.

所以我認為我們看到的是ASO和PEO正在逐漸融合。在某些情況下，完整的PEO模式對某些客戶來說是更好的選擇。而在其他情況下，ASO模式則更適合其他客戶。因此，隨著一年中各個市場的發展，你可能會看到這些類別之間發生轉變。

Yes, I think that's exactly right. Tien-Tsin, you brought up the right thing. We don't know what's going to happen to insurance rates. It depends on how many claims are filed and whether you have a lot of claims. There's a lot of costs that are going to be covered, like the testing and so forth. So it's kind of early to tell but it will be that balance.

是的，我覺得你說得完全正確。田心，你提得很對。我們現在還不知道保險費率會怎麼改變。這取決於有多少理賠申請，以及理賠案件的數量多少。有很多費用需要保險公司承擔，例如檢測費用等等。所以現在下結論還為時過早，但最終會找到一個平衡點。

But as Efrain said, I think then that can shift toward ASO model. But I think the PEO model will still be pretty strong. I think this is bringing awareness of insurance plans and employees. There's going to be this fight for employees again in finding them for your businesses. And I think insurance could be an even stronger selling point now as an employer who's trying to hire people, so that may bring even more clout to the PEO. It's going to be an interesting balance as we come out of this. We're well positioned obviously with both ASO and PEO to do that.

但正如埃弗雷恩所說，我認為這種情況可能會轉向ASO模式。但我認為PEO模式仍然會非常強勁。我認為這提高了人們對保險計劃和員工的認識。企業在招募員工方面將再次面臨激烈的競爭。我認為，對於試圖招募員工的雇主來說，保險現在可能成為一個更有力的賣點，這可能會進一步提升PEO的影響力。隨著疫情的結束，我們將面臨一個有趣的平衡。顯然，憑藉ASO和PEO，我們都處於有利地位，可以應對這種情況。

Yes, so you got them both. Yes. I trust you guys will be right on that. Thank you all for the candor. It's very comforting.

是的，你們兩個都拿到了。是的。我相信你們會處理得當。謝謝大家的坦誠，這讓我很欣慰。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

Glad you're doing healthy. I was just curious as it relates to revenue sensitivity to changes in certain key metrics like ADP has talked in the past. So 1% change in client retention has about 6x the revenue impact as a 1% change in bookings, just as an example. I mean should we assume kind of similar types of relationships hold for Paychex? Or any specifics you feel comfortable sharing just so we can think about the way forward.

很高興你身體健康。我只是好奇，像ADP之前提到的那樣，收入對某些關鍵指標變化的敏感度會如何變化。舉個例子，客戶留存率變動1%對營收的影響大約是預訂量變動1%的6倍。我的意思是，我們是否可以假設Paychex的情況也類似？或者，有什麼具體資訊可以分享嗎？這樣我們就可以一起思考未來的發展方向。

Yes. I would just say broadly a drop of -- a change in our loss rate of about 1%, it yields about $25 million of impact to -- 25 -- well, 2.5, I'm sorry 2.5 million. The checks or pays per control are really the most important. So it sounds like they're somewhat similar to what we are. So -- but we'll see as we work through our plan.

是的。我只想大致說，如果我們的損失率下降大約1%，就會產生大約2500萬美元的影響——哦，不對，是250萬美元。按控制措施支付款項才是最重要的。所以聽起來他們和我們有點類似。所以——但我們會隨著計劃的推進再做決定。

Okay. And then I just wanted to go back, Efrain, to I think answer to an earlier question. It sounded like you guys are assuming a similar amount of deterioration [x] per client and in client retention as you saw the past couple of recessions. So is the reason you're not assuming anything deeper than that just because of the change in mix since those last recessions, like the HR and the PEO mix? Or are there other factors?

好的。然後我想回到之前的問題，Efrain。聽起來你們假設每個客戶和客戶留存率的下降幅度[x]與過去幾次經濟衰退期間的情況類似。那麼，你們之所以沒有做出更深層的假設，只是因為自上次經濟衰退以來，人力資源和專業雇主組織（PEO）的組合發生了變化嗎？還是還有其他因素？

Yes, Jason, that's the impact. I mentioned earlier, just providing some color. If you look at our business, 50% of our revenues are with clients that are 20, and under 50% are clients 20 and over. That's a different mix than we had during the last recession. Of course, there are scenarios where it could get a lot worse than that depending on how long the downturn lasts. But at this point, that's our best guess on the modeling.

是的，傑森，這就是影響。我之前也提到過，只是想補充一些細節。如果你看一下我們的業務，你會發現我們50%的收入來自20歲的客戶，而20歲以上的客戶只佔不到50%。這和我們上次經濟衰退時的客戶組成截然不同。當然，如果經濟衰退持續更長時間，情況可能會比這更糟。但就目前而言，這是我們根據模型做出的最佳預測。

Yes, again on the timing, and obviously not knowing that timing. But you could have this larger drop in checks in the first half of the year, fiscal year, and then come back. And that's kind of how we're thinking that over that period of time. I think over the fiscal year, it might balance out with what past recessions have been. So it might be a little stronger in the early part. But I think if a bounce back -- and everybody has a different view. But if it's a bounce back in the second half, it could be a pretty strong bounce back in checks.

是的，關於時間點，我們當然無法確定。但今年上半年（也就是本財年）的支票發放量可能會大幅下降，然後又有所回升。我們大致上也是這樣看待這段時間的。我認為，從整個財年來看，情況可能會與以往的經濟衰退時期大致相當。所以，上半年的下降幅度可能會更大一些。但我認為，如果出現反彈——當然，每個人對此都有不同的看法——但如果下半年出現反彈，支票發放可能會出現相當強勁的反彈。

Right, right. So maybe a deeper trough but I hear what you're saying. And then just last one real quick, the relaxing or refunding certain fees to help customers stay afloat or defer price increases or anything along those lines?

對，對。所以也許低谷期會更深一些，但我明白你的意思。最後一個問題，可以考慮放寬或退還某些費用，以幫助客戶渡過難關，或延後漲價之類的？

Well, we're looking at it. Again, we haven't had that much of a push from that's what they're concerned about. And we want to -- we're focusing really on what they need at this point to survive and get through all of the stimulus packages and the downturn and so forth and the shutdowns. So that hasn't been that critical from a client perspective. Obviously, we're looking at a price increase, and I think it's going to be prudent to push that out a little bit, and we'll continue to watch that as we go month to month.

嗯，我們正在關注這個問題。再說一遍，他們並沒有特別關注這個問題，也沒有給我們太多壓力。我們真正想做的事——我們目前真正關注的是他們現在需要什麼才能生存下去，度過所有的刺激計劃、經濟衰退以及停工停產等難關。所以從客戶的角度來看，這並不是什麼關鍵問題。顯然，我們正在考慮提價，我認為謹慎起見，應該稍微推遲一下，我們會繼續逐月觀察情況。

Your final question comes from the line of David Grossman with Stifel.

你的最後一個問題來自大衛·格羅斯曼與史蒂費爾的合作系列。

I know it's pretty late here. Just one really quick question.

我知道現在很晚了，就問一個問題。

It's early for you, David.

大衛，對你來說時間還早。

That's one way to look at it, I guess. But just quickly on your commentary about your mix of PEPM versus subscription, I think you said 1/3 PEPM and 2/3 subscription. Can you just help us understand how you get at that?

我想，這算是一種看待問題的方式。不過，關於您之前提到的PEPM和訂閱資料的組合，您好像說過1/3 PEPM和2/3訂閱資料。您能解釋一下您是如何得出這個比例的嗎？

How to get -- how you get at that?

如何獲得－你如何才能得到它？

Yes, how you get those percentages like -- because it seems like a large percentage of mix is really driven by the number of employees. So just want to better understand that right now.

是的，這些百分比是怎麼算出來的？因為看起來很大一部分的產品組合其實是由員工人數決定。所以我現在想更好地理解這一點。

Yes, yes. I think it has to do with the composition of our client base, David. So -- and when you're smaller, you tend to have more on the subscription side of the equation. For example, we don't separately disclose SurePayroll but SurePayroll is purely subscription, so PEPM has no impact on it. And then it's an estimate on other clients, how much of what they're getting is based on PEPM revenue. And that's what it ends up being. When you're smaller, your proportion tends to be more subscription. Larger tends to be more on the PEPM side.

是的，是的。我認為這與我們的客戶群構成有關，David。規模較小時，訂閱收入往往佔比較高。例如，我們沒有單獨揭露 SurePayroll 的數據，但 SurePayroll 完全是訂閱模式，所以 PEPM 對其沒有影響。至於其他客戶，他們獲得的收益有多少是基於 PEPM 收入估算的。最終結果就是這樣。規模較小時，訂閱收入佔比往往較高；規模較大時，PEPM 收入佔比則往往較高。

So what -- just as an example, what are the services you're including in that subscription bucket?

那麼——舉個例子來說，你們的訂閱套餐包含哪些服務？

Just primarily -- it's primarily payroll. So -- but that's a big chunk of the Management Solutions revenue.

主要是——主要是薪資管理。所以——但這佔了管理解決方案收入的很大一部分。

And there are no further questions.

沒有其他問題了。

All right. Thank you. At this point, we will close the call. We do wish the best to all of yourselves and your families, and good health to all of you. Thank you for participating in this call. It will be archived for approximately 30 days. And again, we appreciate your participation and interest in Paychex. And stay safe, everyone. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。通話到此結束。祝各位及家人一切順利，身體健康。感謝各位參與本次通話。通話錄音將存檔約30天。再次感謝您的參與以及對Paychex的關注。祝大家平安健康。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。