沛齊 (PAYX) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Paychex Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Martin Mucci, President and Chief Executive Officer, to begin.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Paychex 2019 財年第四季及全年財報電話會議。（操作說明）現在，我很高興將發言權交給總裁兼執行長馬丁·穆奇，由他開始發言。

Great. Thank you, and thank you for joining us for a discussion of the Paychex Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Release.

偉大的。謝謝，也感謝各位參加我們對 Paychex 2019 財年第四季財報發布的討論。

Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended May 31, 2019. You can access our earnings release on the Investor Relations webpage. Our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC before the end of July, and this teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 1 month.

今天和我一起出席的是我們的財務長埃弗雷恩·裡維拉。今天早上，在市場開盤之前，我們發布了截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日的第四季和財政年度的財務表現。您可以在投資者關係網頁上查看我們的獲利報告。我們的 10-K 表格將於 7 月底前提交給美國證券交易委員會，本次電話會議將透過網路進行直播，並將在我們的網站上存檔並保留約 1 個月。

On today's call, I will review business highlights for the fourth quarter. Efrain will review our financial results for both the fourth quarter and full year and discuss our guidance for the upcoming fiscal 2020, and then we'll open it up for your questions.

在今天的電話會議上，我將回顧第四季的業務亮點。Efrain 將回顧我們第四季度和全年的財務業績，並討論我們對即將到來的 2020 財年的展望，然後我們將開放提問環節。

We closed fiscal 2019 with growth across our major product lines and solid progress toward our objectives. Our total revenue growth was 16% for the fourth quarter, which includes, of course, the incremental results from Oasis Outsourcing Group. Management solutions revenue grew 4%, while PEO and insurance services revenues grew 67%, or 10% excluding the impact of Oasis.

2019 財年結束時，我們的主要產品線均實現了成長，並在實現目標方面取得了穩步進展。第四季總營收成長了 16%，其中當然包括 Oasis Outsourcing Group 的增量業績。管理解決方案收入成長了 4%，而 PEO 和保險服務收入成長了 67%，如果排除 Oasis 的影響，則成長了 10%。

As we look back on fiscal '19, we had a solid service and retention performance, a number of innovative enhancements to our product offerings and mobile app, and we completed the largest acquisition in our history. The acquisition of Oasis added scale to our PEO business, and we ended the fiscal year serving 1.5 million worksite employees across all of our HR outsourcing services. In addition, we are beginning to realize the strategic benefits of the acquisition through the expansion of relationships with insurance partners and opportunities to upsell within the existing Oasis base. Our newly combined PEO leadership team continues to expand our leadership position in the HR outsourcing industry.

回顧 2019 財年，我們在服務和客戶留存方面取得了穩健的成績，對我們的產品和服務以及行動應用程式進行了許多創新改進，並且完成了公司歷史上規模最大的收購。收購 Oasis 擴大了我們的 PEO 業務規模，在本財政年度結束時，我們透過所有人力資源外包服務為 150 萬名工作場所員工提供服務。此外，我們開始意識到此次收購帶來的策略優勢，包括擴大與保險合作夥伴的關係，以及在現有 Oasis 客戶群中增加追加銷售的機會。我們新組建的 PEO 領導團隊將繼續擴大我們在人力資源外包產業的領導地位。

Fiscal 2019 reflected excellent execution in client service and operations as seen in our client retention and client satisfaction scores. Our client retention has continued to increase from the prior year, and we ended the fiscal year with payroll client retention on par with our historic best. We have made significant investments in our sales force this year, particularly in our inside sales and mid-market sales forces, and in demand generation. These incremental investments are having an impact as we have experienced increased sales momentum with these efforts.

2019 財年，我們在客戶服務和營運方面表現出色，客戶留存率和客戶滿意度得分均反映了這一點。我們的客戶留存率較前一年持續成長，本財年結束時，薪資客戶的留存率達到了歷史最佳水準。今年我們對銷售團隊進行了大量投資，尤其是在內部銷售和中端市場銷售團隊以及需求創造方面。這些逐步增加的投資正在產生影響，因為我們透過這些努力獲得了銷售成長勢頭。

In addition, we have continued to produce solid new sales growth from our SurePayroll, HR Solutions, retirement and PEO sales teams. The momentum in new sales coupled with improved client retention has resulted in overall growth in our payroll client base. As of May 31, 2019, we serve approximately 670,000 payroll clients. In addition, excluding worksite employees acquired as part of the Oasis acquisition, the number of worksite employee served by our HR outsourcing services reflected double-digit growth.

此外，我們的 SurePayroll、人力資源解決方案、退休金和 PEO 銷售團隊也持續實現了穩健的新銷售成長。新銷售額的成長動能以及顧客留存率的提高，使得我們的薪資服務客戶群整體成長。截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日，我們為約 67 萬家薪資客戶提供服務。此外，不包括作為 Oasis 收購一部分而獲得的現場員工，我們人力資源外包服務所服務的現場員工人數實現了兩位數的成長。

America's businesses are operating in challenging times. The unemployment rate is at its lowest in nearly 50 years while employers try to ramp up their hiring. As a result, there is a lack of talent to fill open jobs, and the regulatory environment is complicated and continuously changing. State jurisdictions are continuing to advance employment-related laws and regulations that impact the hiring and employment of workers. Also the way people work is changing, requiring employers to understand employees' workplace expectations, challenges and requirements. In this evolving landscape, businesses are looking for simple solutions that help them build their business, stay compliant, improve productivity and recruit, hire and retain talent.

美國企業正面臨嚴峻的經營挑戰。失業率處於近50年來的最低水平，雇主正努力加大招募力度。因此，市場上缺乏人才來填補空缺職位，而且監管環境複雜多變。各州司法管轄區正在不斷推動與就業相關的法律法規，這些法律法規會影響工人的招聘和僱用。此外，人們的工作方式也在發生變化，這就要求雇主了解員工對工作場所的期望、挑戰和要求。在這種不斷變化的環境中，企業正在尋找簡單的解決方案，以幫助他們發展業務、保持合規、提高生產力以及招募、僱用和留住人才。

Paychex is uniquely positioned to meet these needs through our breadth of service offerings, but more importantly, through the combination of our innovative technology and personalized service model. This sets us apart and allows us to be true partners and advocates for our clients. We renewed our commitment to reducing the complexity for our customers related to payroll, benefits and HR administration when we launched our new branding earlier this year. Our tagline, the power of simplicity, reinforces this commitment. We continually invest in our solutions to make payroll and HR administration simpler for our clients and their employees and provide solutions the way they are working today. 70% of the usage of our 5-star mobile app is done by our clients' employees. We are making it easier for the employees and more productive for our clients through an increased number of self-service options.

Paychex 憑藉其廣泛的服務產品，以及更重要的是，憑藉其創新技術和個人化服務模式的結合，在滿足這些需求方面具有獨特的優勢。這使我們脫穎而出，使我們能夠成為客戶真正的合作夥伴和擁護者。今年早些時候，我們推出了新的品牌形象，重申了我們致力於降低客戶在薪資、福利和人力資源管理方面的複雜性的承諾。我們的口號「簡約的力量」強化了這項承諾。我們持續投資於我們的解決方案，以簡化客戶及其員工的薪資和人力資源管理，並提供符合他們目前工作方式的解決方案。我們五星級行動應用程式 70% 的使用量來自我們客戶的員工。我們透過增加自助服務選項，讓員工的工作更輕鬆，也讓客戶的工作更有效率。

The enhancements we have made throughout this past year include the HR center with performance and learning management and enhanced HR data analytics, benefits management enhancements with a refreshed enrollment experience for health and benefits and retirement, and increased options through the use of chatbots and artificial intelligence. All of these enhancements are designed to provide simple solutions for our clients and their employees. This focus is -- on steadily investing in the innovation of our Paychex Flex human capital management technology played a significant part in our recognition by NelsonHall as a leader in payroll outsourcing for the North American small business market. This was our third year in a row receiving this designation.

在過去一年中，我們進行了多項改進，包括人力資源中心的績效和學習管理以及增強的人力資源數據分析；福利管理方面的改進，包括更新健康、福利和退休金的註冊體驗；以及透過使用聊天機器人和人工智慧來增加選擇。所有這些改進都是為了給我們的客戶及其員工簡單的解決方案。我們專注於持續投資於 Paychex Flex 人力資本管理技術的創新，這在 NelsonHall 認可我們為北美小型企業市場薪資外包領域的領導者方面發揮了重要作用。這已是我們連續第三年獲得此項殊榮。

Shifting to other solutions, we currently face a retirement crisis in the U.S. A recent report from the U.S. Federal Reserve found that 1/4 of Americans have no retirement savings. We recently launched enhancements to our 401(k) product design to help address this crisis by simplifying retirement plan enrollment and management. These enhancements included a new participant dashboard and added functionality in the adviser portal. The new participant dashboard makes the process of enrolling in a 401(k) simpler than ever and also provides a unique combination of tools and resources to empower participants in preparing for their retirement. Our mobile app allows a new participant to enroll in as few as 4 clicks, which has already resulted in increased participation rates. We also continue to return value to our shareholders. In May, we announced an increase in our quarterly dividend of $0.06 or 11% to $0.62 per share. During fiscal '19, we returned almost $900 million to our shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases.

轉向其他解決方案，我們目前正面臨美國的退休危機。美國聯邦儲備委員會最近的一份報告發現，四分之一的美國人沒有任何退休儲蓄。我們最近對 401(k) 產品設計進行了改進，以簡化退休計畫的註冊和管理，從而幫助應對這場危機。這些改進包括新增參與者儀表板和顧問入口網站新增功能。新的參與者儀錶板使加入 401(k) 計劃的過程比以往任何時候都更加簡單，並且提供了一系列獨特的工具和資源，以幫助參與者為退休做好準備。我們的行動應用程式只需點擊 4 次即可讓新參與者註冊，這已經提高了參與率。我們也會繼續為股東創造價值。5月份，我們宣布將季度股利提高0.06美元，增幅11%，至每股0.62美元。在 2019 財年，我們以股利和股票回購的方式向股東返還了近 9 億美元。

In summary, our fourth quarter caps another successful year for Paychex. Our state-of-the-art technology, full suite of HCM product offerings and world-class personalized service is a powerful combination that positions us for sustainable growth within our market ecosystem. Our organic business combined with our new acquisitions have positioned us well for fiscal 2020 and beyond. The sustained efforts of our employees and their commitment to our clients continue to drive the company forward.

總而言之，第四季為Paychex又一個成功的年份畫上了圓滿的句點。我們擁有最先進的技術、全套 HCM 產品以及世界一流的個人化服務，這種強大的組合使我們能夠在市場生態系統中實現永續成長。我們的有機成長加上新收購的業務，使我們為 2020 財年及以後的發展奠定了良好的基礎。員工們的不懈努力和對客戶的承諾不斷推動公司向前發展。

I will now turn the call over to Efrain Rivera to review our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Efrain?

現在我將把電話交給埃弗雷恩·裡維拉，讓他回顧我們第四季和本財年的財務表現。埃弗雷恩？

Thanks, Marty, and good morning. I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events, and as such, involve some risks. Please refer to our earnings release for the customary disclosures. In addition, I will periodically refer to some non-GAAP measures such as adjusted operating income, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share. These measurements exclude certain discrete tax items and one-time charges. Please refer to our press release and investor presentation for a discussion of these measures and a reconciliation for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2019 to their related GAAP measures.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早安。我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議將包含有關未來事件的前瞻性陳述，因此存在一些風險。有關慣例披露信息，請參閱我們的盈利報告。此外，我也會定期參考一些非GAAP指標，例如調整後的營業收入、調整後的淨收入和調整後的稀釋每股盈餘。這些計量結果不包括某些特定稅項和一次性費用。有關這些措施的討論以及 2019 財年第四季和全年與相關 GAAP 指標的調節表，請參閱我們的新聞稿和投資者簡報。

I'll start by providing some of the key highlights for the quarter and then follow up with some greater detail on certain areas. I'll touch briefly on full year results and wrap with a review of the fiscal 2020 outlook. Total revenue and service revenue both grew 16% for the fourth quarter to $980 million compared to 958 -- I'm sorry, and $958 million, respectively. Excluding Oasis, service revenue and total revenue both grew by 5%. Expenses increased 22% for the fourth quarter to $666 million, but if you exclude the Oasis acquisition, expense growth was 6%. The increase in total expenses, excluding Oasis, was primarily driven by increased head count due to incremental investments in the sales force, technology resources and operations to support the growth in business.

我將首先介紹本季的一些主要亮點，然後再就某些領域進行更詳細的闡述。我將簡要介紹全年業績，並最後回顧 2020 財年展望。第四季總營收和服務收入均成長 16%，達到 9.8 億美元，而上一季分別為 9.58 億美元。剔除 Oasis 業務後，服務收入和總收入均成長了 5%。第四季支出成長了 22%，達到 6.66 億美元，但如果排除 Oasis 收購，支出成長為 6%。除 Oasis 外，總支出增加的主要原因是銷售團隊、技術資源和營運方面的投資增加，從而支持業務成長，導致人員數量增加。

In addition, an increase in PEO insurance cost contributed approximately 1% to the growth in total expenses in the fourth quarter. Operating income increased 4% to $314 million. Operating margin was 32.1% for the fourth quarter compared to 35.7% for the same period last year. Margins were impacted by business mix by -- due to the growth in PEO business, accelerated investments in sales, technology and operations as well as some onetime acquisition, integration and amortization costs associated with the Oasis acquisition. Our effective income tax was 25.8% for the fourth quarter compared to 28.5% for the same period last year. Net income increased 6% to $230 million and adjusted net income increased 10% to $228 million for the fourth quarter. Diluted earnings per share increased 7% to $0.64 for the fourth quarter and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 9% to $0.63.

此外，PEO 保險成本的增加導致第四季總支出增加約 1%。營業收入成長4%，達到3.14億美元。第四季營業利益率為 32.1%，而去年同期為 35.7%。利潤率受到業務組合的影響，原因是 PEO 業務的成長、銷售、技術和營運方面的加速投資，以及與 Oasis 收購相關的一些一次性收購、整合和攤銷成本。第四季我們的實際所得稅率為 25.8%，去年同期為 28.5%。第四季淨利成長 6% 至 2.3 億美元，調整後淨利成長 10% 至 2.28 億美元。第四季稀釋後每股收益成長 7% 至 0.64 美元，調整後稀釋後每股收益成長 9% 至 0.63 美元。

I'll now provide some now additional color in selected areas. Management solutions revenue. As you know, this includes our payroll service revenue together with other HCM products included in many of our product bundles. It increased 4% to $695 million for the fourth quarter. The increase was primarily driven by growth in our client base across many of our services, along with growth in payroll revenue and -- payroll revenue per check, which increased or improved as a result of increases, net of discounts.

接下來，我將在選定區域中添加一些額外的顏色。管理解決方案收入。如您所知，這包括我們的薪資服務收入以及我們許多產品組合中包含的其他 HCM 產品收入。第四季成長4%，達到6.95億美元。此次成長主要得益於我們眾多服務的客戶群成長，以及薪資收入和每張薪資支票收入的成長，扣除折扣後，薪資收入和每張薪資支票的收入均有所增加或改善。

Within management solutions revenue, retirement services revenue also benefited from an increase in the number of plans served as well as an increase in revenue earned on the asset value of participants' 401(k) funds. PEO and insurances revenue. It increased 67%, as Marty mentioned, to $263 million for the fourth quarter. Excluding the acquisition of Oasis, PEO and insurance services revenue increased approximately 10% for the quarter. The increase was driven by growth in clients and client worksite employees across our combined PBS and HROI PEO businesses.

在管理解決方案收入方面，退休服務收入也受益於服務計畫數量的增加以及參與者 401(k) 基金資產價值所賺取收入的增加。PEO和保險收入。正如馬蒂所提到的那樣，第四季度增長了 67%，達到 2.63 億美元。若不計入對 Oasis 的收購，PEO 和保險服務收入在本季成長了約 10%。成長的驅動因素是公司旗下 PBS 和 HROI PEO 業務的客戶數量和客戶現場員工數量的成長。

Demand for our existing PEO services along with growth within our client base resulted in double-digit growth in the number of client worksite employees served. Insurance service revenue benefited from an increase in the number of health and benefit clients and applicants, partially offset by the impact of softness in the worker's comp market, as we discussed last quarter.

現有 PEO 服務的需求以及客戶群的成長，導致我們服務的客戶現場員工數量實現了兩位數的成長。保險服務收入受益於健康和福利客戶及申請人數的增加，但部分被工傷賠償市場疲軟的影響所抵消，正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣。

Interest on funds held for clients increased 25% for the fourth quarter to 20 -- from 25 to -- I'm sorry, 25% to $22 million primarily as a result of higher average interest rates earned. Average balances for interest on funds held for clients remained flat for the fourth quarter as the impact of lower client withholdings resulting from tax reform legislation and changes in client mix were partially offset by the impact of wage inflation. Interest expense -- net -- I'll note that we had a net nonoperating interest expense compared to net investment income in the prior year. This is a result of interest expense of the $800 million of debt financing that we utilized to fund a portion of the Oasis purchase price. The $800 million is made up of private placement debt securities with terms of 7 or 10 years with coupon rates of 4.07% to 4.25%, respectively.

第四季度，客戶資金利息增加了 25%，達到 2,200 萬美元，主要原因是平均利率上漲。第四季度，客戶資金利息平均餘額保持平穩，因為稅收改革立法和客戶結構變化導致客戶預扣稅額降低的影響被工資通膨的影響部分抵消。淨利息支出－需要注意的是，與前一年的淨投資收益相比，我們今年的非經營性淨利息支出有所增加。這是由於我們利用 8 億美元的債務融資來支付 Oasis 收購款的一部分而產生的利息支出所致。這 8 億美元由私募債務證券組成，期限分別為 7 年或 10 年，票面利率分別為 4.07% 至 4.25%。

Now let me touch on year-to-date results quickly. Management solutions revenue, again, up 4% to $2.9 billion. PEO and insurance services revenue increased 48% to $822 million, 19% excluding Oasis. Interest on funds held for clients up 27% to $81 million, driven by interest rate increases and partially offset by impact of decline in average invested balances. Total revenues increased 12% to $3.8 billion, 7% growth excluding Oasis. Operating margins were 36.3%, tempered by investments in the business, the acquisition of Oasis and growth in the existing PEO direct insurance cost. Net income increased 4% and adjusted net income increased 11%. Diluted EPS increased 4% and adjusted diluted EPS also increased 11%.

現在讓我快速談談今年迄今為止的業績。管理解決方案收入再次成長 4%，達到 29 億美元。PEO 和保險服務收入成長 48% 至 8.22 億美元，若不計 Oasis，則成長 19%。受利率上升的推動，客戶資金利息增加 27% 至 8,100 萬美元，但部分被平均投資餘額下降的影響所抵消。總營收成長 12% 至 38 億美元，若不計 Oasis，則成長 7%。營業利益率為 36.3%，受到業務投資、收購 Oasis 以及現有 PEO 直接保險成本成長的影響。淨利成長4%，調整後淨利成長11%。稀釋後每股收益成長了 4%，調整後稀釋後每股收益也成長了 11%。

Turning to our investment portfolio. As you know, our goal is to protect principal and optimize liquidity. We continue to investment in high credit-quality securities. Our long-term portfolio has an average yield of 2.1% and an average duration of 2.9 years. Our combined portfolios have earned an average rate of return of 2.1% and 1.9% for the fourth quarter and fiscal year, respectively. These are up from 1.7% and 1.5% for the respective periods last year.

接下來我們來看看我們的投資組合。如您所知，我們的目標是保護本金並優化流動性。我們將繼續投資於高信用等級的證券。我們的長期投資組合平均報酬率為 2.1%，平均期間為 2.9 年。我們的投資組合在第四季度和本財年分別獲得了平均 2.1% 和 1.9% 的回報率。這兩個數字分別高於去年同期的1.7%和1.5%。

Let's talk about our financial position. It remained strong, with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of almost $800 million as of May 31, 2019. Funds held for clients were -- as of May 31, 2019, were $3.8 billion compared to $4.7 billion as of May 31, 2018. As you know, funds held for clients vary widely on a day-to-day basis and averaged $4.1 billion for the fourth quarter and $4 billion for the fiscal year.

我們來談談我們的財務狀況。截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日，該公司仍保持強勁勢頭，現金、受限現金和公司總投資額接近 8 億美元。截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日，為客戶持有的資金為 38 億美元，而截至 2018 年 5 月 31 日為 47 億美元。如您所知，為客戶持有的資金每天都有很大的波動，第四季度平均為 41 億美元，本財年平均為 40 億美元。

Our total available-for-sale investments, including corporate investments and funds held for clients, reflected net unrealized gains of $20 million as of May 31, 2019, compared with net unrealized losses of $38 million as of May 31, 2018. The move to a net gain position was due to declines in longer-term yields. Total stockholders' equity was $2.6 billion as of the end of the year, reflecting $827 million in dividends paid and $57 million worth of shares repurchased during 2019. Our return on equity for the past 12 months was a very robust 42%. Cash flows from operations were $1.3 billion for the fiscal year, an increase of 1% from the same period last year. The increase was driven by higher net income and noncash adjustments, partially offset by fluctuations in working capital. Working capital fluctuations related to timing around collections and related tax payments for our combined PEO business along with higher accounts receivables related to growth in our payroll funding business for temporary staffing clients.

截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日，我們可供出售的投資總額（包括公司投資和為客戶持有的基金）反映出未實現淨收益 2,000 萬美元，而截至 2018 年 5 月 31 日，未實現淨虧損為 3,800 萬美元。轉為淨收益是由於長期收益率下降所致。截至年底，股東權益總額為 26 億美元，其中包括 2019 年支付的 8.27 億美元股息和回購的價值 5,700 萬美元的股票。過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率非常強​​勁，達到 42%。本財年經營活動產生的現金流量為 13 億美元，較上年同期成長 1%。淨收入增加和非現金調整推動了成長，但部分被營運資本波動所抵銷。營運資金波動與收款和相關稅款支付的時間有關，這與我們合併後的 PEO 業務有關；此外，由於我們為臨時人員配備客戶提供的工資融資業務增長，應收帳款也相應增加。

Now let's turn to the guidance. I'll remind you that our outlook is based upon current view of -- our current view of economic conditions continuing with no significant changes. Management solutions revenue anticipated to grow 4%. PEO and insurance revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 30% to 35%, reflecting a full year of Oasis. Interest on funds held for clients is anticipated to grow in a range of 4% to 8%. At this stage, we do not contemplate either any increases, obviously less likely, and no rate declines. We will watch and see what happens. Total revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 10% to 11%.

現在我們來看指導意見。我提醒各位，我們的展望是基於我們目前對經濟狀況的看法——即經濟狀況將持續不變，不會發生重大變化。管理解決方案收入預計將成長 4%。PEO 和保險收入預計將成長 30% 至 35%，反映出 Oasis 的全年業績。預計為客戶持有的資金利息將增加 4% 至 8%。現階段，我們既不考慮升息（顯然可能性較小），也不考慮降息。我們將拭目以待。預計總收入將成長 10% 至 11%。

Operating income as a percent of total revenue is anticipated to be approximately 36%, comparable with this year, reflecting the expected impact of higher PEO direct insurance cost. EBITDA margin for the fiscal year 2020 is expected to be approximately 41%, again comparable to where we are -- where we end this year. Net interest expense is anticipated to be in the range of $15 million to $18 million, reflecting a full year of interest on outstanding long-term debt, which I discussed previously. The effective income tax rate for fiscal 2020 is expected to be in the range of 24% to 24.5%. Net income and diluted earnings per share are both anticipated to grow approximately 8%, and adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share are both expected to increase in the range of 8% to 9%. And remember that we don't plan on necessarily the benefit of -- a tax benefit when we get -- start comp exercise, which is why we adjust it out.

預計營業收入佔總收入的百分比約為 36%，與今年相當，反映了 PEO 直接保險成本上升的預期影響。預計 2020 財年的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 41%，與我們目前的水平（即今年年底的水平）相當。預計淨利息支出將在 1500 萬美元至 1800 萬美元之間，這反映了我之前討論過的未償長期債務的一整年利息。預計 2020 財年的實際所得稅率將在 24% 至 24.5% 之間。預計淨利潤和稀釋後每股收益將增長約 8%，調整後淨利潤和調整後稀釋後每股收益預計將增長 8% 至 9%。請記住，我們不一定會計劃獲得——當我們開始進行補償性運動時——的稅收優惠，這就是為什麼我們要進行調整的原因。

I will provide further color on the gating. Management solutions revenue quarterly gating is anticipated to be consistent with the full year guidance, with the exception of the first quarter, which is anticipated to be in the range of 3% to 4%, largely due to a mix of days in the quarter. However, please note that growth rates for PEO and insurance revenues are anticipated to be significantly higher in the first half of the fiscal year until we reach the anniversary of the Oasis acquisition. So we anticipate growth in the range of 60% to 65% in the first half of fiscal 2020 and then growth of 11% to 14% in the second half. So let me just repeat that. We anticipate growth in the range of 60% to 65% in the first half of fiscal 2020 for PEO and insurance services, and then growth moderates to 11% to 14% in the second half as we anniversary the Oasis acquisition. Our net income gating is also impacted by the timing of the Oasis acquisition together with related amortization expense and integration cost. This causes lower net income growth in the first half of the fiscal year.

我將進一步詳細介紹閘門控制。管理解決方案收入的季度成長預計將與全年預期保持一致，但第一季除外，預計成長幅度在 3% 到 4% 之間，這主要是由於該季度各種日期的組合所致。不過請注意，預計在 Oasis 收購週年紀念日到來之前，本財年上半年 PEO 和保險收入的成長率將顯著更高。因此，我們預計 2020 財年上半年成長率將達到 60% 至 65%，下半年成長率將達到 11% 至 14%。那我再重複一次。我們預計 2020 財年上半年 PEO 和保險服務業務將成長 60% 至 65%，然後隨著 Oasis 收購週年紀念日的到來，下半年成長將放緩至 11% 至 14%。我們的淨收入也受到 Oasis 收購時間以及相關攤銷費用和整合成本的影響。這導致本財年上半年淨收入成長放緩。

In addition, incremental investments in sales, technology and operations are ramped over the year during fiscal 2019. We expect net income growth to be below the full year guidance range provided at approximately 3% for the first half of the fiscal year, and then we expect it to increase to a range of 11% to 13% in the second half of the year. So let me repeat that. We expect net income growth to be below the full year guidance range for the first half of the year, and we expect it to be approximately 3% for the first half of the fiscal year, and then we expect it to increase to a range of 11% to 13% for the second half of the year due to the factors described above. Then one final point on -- specific to Q1. For the first quarter of fiscal 2020, net income growth is anticipated to be in the range of 1% to 2%, with the most significant driver being that of investment spending funded by tax reform that was just starting to ramp up during the first quarter of fiscal 2019 and incremental expenses from Oasis.

此外，在 2019 財年期間，銷售、技術和營運方面的增量投資將逐步增加。我們預計本財年上半年淨利潤成長率將低於全年預期範圍，約為 3%，然後我們預計下半年將成長至 11% 至 13%。讓我再重複一次。我們預計今年上半年淨利潤成長將低於全年預期範圍，預計上半年約為 3%，然後由於上述因素，預計下半年將成長至 11% 至 13%。最後還有一點——專門針對問題1。預計 2020 財年第一季淨收入成長將在 1% 至 2% 之間，其中最主要的驅動因素是稅收改革帶來的投資支出（該支出在 2019 財年第一季剛開始加速成長）以及 Oasis 的新增支出。

So with that and with that color on the guidance, I will, one, refer you to our investor slides for more detail that have been posted on the web, and I will now turn the call back to Marty.

所以，基於以上資訊以及指導意見，首先，請各位參閱我們已發佈在網上的投資者幻燈片，了解更多詳情；現在，我將把電話轉回給馬蒂。

Thank you, Efrain. Operator, we'll now open up the call for any questions, please.

謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。接線員，現在開始接受提問，請大家踴躍提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

I wanted to ask again about just your operating margin guidance. You took it down a little bit. And of course, you called out higher PEO direct insurance cost. Can you, again, just sort of remind us of the drivers of those higher costs? And also are there any other secondary factors or headwinds? There was quite a bit of content in your remarks. Can you just kind of parse out for us exactly what's happening in terms of your expectations for guidance in this -- for margins in this coming year?

我想再問一下貴公司的營業利潤率預期。你把它降下來一點。當然，您也提到了PEO直接保險成本較高的問題。您能否再次提醒我們一下，造成成本上升的原因是什麼？此外，還有其他次要因素或不利因素嗎？你的發言內容相當豐富。您能否為我們詳細解釋一下您對未來一年利潤率的預期？

Ramsey, the first thing I'd say is that it wasn't a change from what we said before. We said that operating -- if you go back to Q3, we said it would be consistent with this year, which was 36%, that's what we called out this year. So I would say that with respect to your question on the margins, what we're seeing is that we -- by having more PEO revenue in the mix, it has a moderating impact on margins and it's offset by other efficiencies in the business, which is why even though our PEO revenues are up as a percentage of total revenues for the year, you see that the impact actually year-over-year is not significant. The other thing I would point you to is that in Q3, we said that our EBITDA margin would be comparable to our operating margin and that's exactly what we just stated. So I think it's consistent with what we've said before.

拉姆齊，我首先要說的是，這和我們之前說的話並沒有什麼不同。我們說過，營運——如果你回顧第三季度，我們說過它將與今年保持一致，即 36%，這就是我們今年預測的結果。所以，關於您提出的利潤率問題，我想說的是，隨著 PEO 收入的增加，利潤率受到抑制，但這種抑製作用被業務中的其他效率提升所抵消。這就是為什麼儘管我們的 PEO 收入佔全年總收入的比例有所上升，但您會看到，與去年相比，實際的影響並不顯著。我還要指出一點，我們在第三季說過，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將與我們的營業利潤率相當，而這正是我們剛才所說的。所以我認為這與我們之前所說的是一致的。

Fair enough. I wanted to ask you a broader kind of industry question about the PEO market in terms of further consolidation. Just in terms of the industry, do you expect this market to kind of continue to consolidate? You've got another couple of good-sized players out there, probably a lot of smaller regional players as well. How do you see the market landscape changing? And then just a quick final bolt-on is, what interest rate assumptions are you using for your float income growth guidance? And with that, I can hop back in the queue.

很公平。我想問您一個更廣泛的行業問題，關於 PEO 市場進一步整合的問題。就產業而言，您認為這個市場會繼續整合嗎？市場上還有幾家規模較大的公司，可能還有很多規模較小的地區性公司。您認為市場格局將如何改變？最後再補充一個問題，您在製定浮動收益成長預期時使用了哪些利率假設？這樣一來，我就可以重新排隊了。

Okay. Ramsey, I'll take the PEO one. I think you will see some further consolidation. I think as it becomes more competitive, you need to have the breadth of services and the relationships with the carriers to offer the best, both a combination of product and service, the best technology from a mobile standpoint as well for the enrollment of the benefits. And you've got to have the experience to handle some of the pretty rapidly changing requirements from the state side and from the carriers on what the new insurance plans are, what the new rules are. And the HR piece of it is becoming even more important many times than the benefits themselves.

好的。拉姆齊，我要PEO的那個。我認為你會看到進一步的整合。我認為隨著競爭日益激烈，你需要提供廣泛的服務，並與運營商建立良好的關係，才能提供最好的產品和服務組合，以及從移動角度來看最好的技術，以便更好地辦理各項福利。而且你必須有足夠的經驗來應對州政府和保險公司方面快速變化的要求，包括新的保險計劃和新的規則。而且，人力資源方面的因素甚至比福利本身更為重要。

So I think smaller players will find it -- continue -- will continue to find it difficult to provide and compete in this environment. And certainly with our acquisition of Oasis, there's been a -- even more interest, I think, in the consolidation and the growth in that market, which continues to grow very strong across the board. I think as I noted and Efrain mentioned I think as well, our growth in worksite employees was double digits even without the Oasis acquisition. So we're very proud of the sales and the service that we're providing in the PEO market. And I'll turn it back to Efrain on the interest rate assumption.

所以我認為規模較小的企業會發現——而且會繼續發現——在這種環境下提供服務和參與競爭會很困難。當然，隨著我們收購 Oasis，我認為人們對該市場的整合和成長產生了更大的興趣，該市場整體上繼續保持強勁成長。我認為正如我之前提到的，Efrain 也提到過，即使沒有收購 Oasis，我們的工作場所員工數量也實現了兩位數的成長。因此，我們對我們在 PEO 市場上的銷售和服務感到非常自豪。我會把利率假設的問題轉回給埃弗雷恩。

Yes. So Ramsey, in my comments, I mentioned in the fourth quarter our combined portfolios were 2.1%. You can see for the year, we were 1.9% for the full year. So I would expect that when you look at the full year impact, we're going to tick up slightly from where we are in fourth quarter. We'll have a little bit of benefit from balances that should be a bit higher than what we had this year, but it's modest. You can see in the guidance a 4% to 8% increase on interest on funds held for clients. We're being somewhat cautious on what we expect in terms of the portfolio.

是的。所以拉姆齊，我在評論中提到，第四季我們合併後的投資組合佔比為 2.1%。你可以看到，我們全年的收益率為 1.9%。因此，我預計從全年來看，我們會比第四季略有上升。我們將從略高於今年的餘額中獲得一些好處，但幅度不大。從指導方針中可以看到，為客戶持有的資金利息將增加 4% 至 8%。我們對投資組合的預期持較為謹慎的態度。

Your next question comes from the line of James Schneider of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的詹姆斯·施耐德。

I may have missed the exact client count growth that you just called out in your prepared remarks. Can you maybe talk about, within segments, small, micro -- small and mid-market, kind of where do you see growth (inaudible) for payroll?

我可能錯過了您在準備好的發言稿中提到的確切的客戶數量增長數據。您能否談談在小型、微型、中型市場等細分領域中，您認為薪資成長點在哪裡？ （聽不清楚）

So James, I think it's either on the -- I think it's on the -- in the press release and it's on our investor slides. So we ended the year at about 670,000 clients. Last year, we disclosed 650,000. We saw growth, our -- we saw a lot of growth in the SMB segment of the market.

所以詹姆斯，我認為要么在——我認為在——新聞稿裡，要么在我們的投資者幻燈片裡。因此，到年底時，我們的客戶數量約為 67 萬人。去年，我們披露了 65 萬條資訊。我們看到了成長，我們的－我們看到了中小企業市場領域的大幅成長。

Your next question comes from Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

I just wanted to start with a question on core payroll revenue growth, and thank you for the final quarter disclosure on that metric. I think it did slow a tick, a point down to 2% in Q4 and came in, I guess, 2% rounded for the full year. Was that effectively all pricing? And then would you expect to get a similar amount of pricing in fiscal '20?

我首先想問一個關於核心工資收入成長的問題，感謝您提供的上一季該指標的揭露資訊。我認為它確實有所放緩，第四季度下降了一個百分點至 2%，我猜全年四捨五入後也是 2%。這就是全部的定價了嗎？那麼，您預期 2020 財年的價格也會有類似的波動嗎？

Jason, I don't think it slowed. I think what you're seeing is that we anniversaried the acquisition of Lessor last year, so Q3 was a tick higher. And it is very difficult, I would caution, to compare Q3 to Q4 now because Q3 has certain kinds of revenue that only occur in that quarter. So I think we ended up -- we were pleased with where we ended up. We had client growth. We certainly saw some really robust results in parts of the market. Our internal sales were very good. SurePayroll was -- had a really strong year, and we are positioned really well from a digital marketing standpoint and from an internal sales standpoint. So we feel really good about where we're exiting the year. And obviously, we had client growth, which is the ultimate indicator of that.

傑森，我覺得它的速度並沒有減慢。我認為你看到的原因是，我們去年慶祝了收購 Lessor 的周年紀念日，所以第三季業績略有成長。我要提醒的是，現在很難將第三季與第四季進行比較，因為第三季有一些只在該季度才會產生的收入。所以我覺得我們最終的結果——我們對最終的結果很滿意。我們的客戶數量有所增長。我們確實在部分市場領域看到了非常強勁的業績。我們的內部銷售業績非常好。SurePayroll 過去一年表現非常強勁，從數位行銷和內部銷售的角度來看，我們都處於非常有利的地位。所以，我們對今年的最終成績感到非常滿意。很顯然，我們的客戶數量也成長了，這才是最終的指標。

And just anything on the pricing?

關於價格方面有什麼想問的嗎？

Look, pricing is a part of the equation. So we would expect certainly that we can continue to get pricing. We have never had an issue with that.

價格是影響因素之一。因此，我們當然可以預期能夠繼續獲得定價資訊。我們從未遇到過這方面的問題。

Yes. We've had -- especially, when you think about the client retention at historic highs, we think the pricing has stuck very well, and we've been able to sell the value of not only the technology and -- that we've been introducing in the mobile app and so forth, but the service as well. So I think still having the pricing in the same range we've been in the past, it should absolutely be doable, and we should be able to retain and hold that pricing as well.

是的。特別是考慮到客戶留存率達到了歷史新高，我們認為定價策略非常成功，我們不僅能夠推銷我們在行動應用程式等產品中引入的技術價值，還能推銷服務價值。所以我認為，如果價格仍然維持在過去的水平，那絕對是可行的，我們也應該能夠維持並維持這個價格。

Okay. Understood. And just wanted to make sure that I heard the comments properly around the float income forecast. I think you indicated you're not assuming any changes in Fed funds. I mean obviously the market's pricing in a high probability of that next month. So I just wanted to make sure that we've still got the rule of thumb right on that. If I recall, a 25 basis point change in Fed funds is roughly 1% or so of net income. Does that still hold?

好的。明白了。我只是想確認一下我是否正確理解了關於浮動收益預測的評論。我認為你已表明你不認為聯邦基金利率會有任何變化。我的意思是，很明顯，市場已經將下個月發生這種情況的可能性高估了。所以我只是想確認一下，我們在這方面的經驗法則是否仍然正確。如果我沒記錯的話，聯邦基金利率變動 25 個基點大約相當於淨收入的 1% 左右。這個說法現在還成立嗎？

25 bps, no that's not correct. So it's about -- a 25 bps drop would result between -- in an impact of about $3 million to $4 million, so I haven't done the -- maybe that equates to 1%. But I would caution a little bit about that because one of the things that we looked at when we looked at the guidance was we have ways to adjust the duration of the portfolio to deal with changes and modest changes or declines during the year. So I wouldn't necessarily take that to the bank because we do have some things we can do if we see some modest decreases during the year. And that's why we are conservative on the range we've provided.

25 bps？不對，這個數不對。所以，大約——下跌 25 個基點將導致——大約 300 萬至 400 萬美元的影響，所以我還沒有計算——也許這相當於 1%。但我對此要稍作提醒，因為我們在研究指導時考慮的一點是，我們有辦法調整投資組合的久期，以應對一年中的變化、小幅變化或下滑。所以我不會完全相信這個結果，因為如果我們在一年中看到一些小幅下降，我們還是有一些措施可以採取的措施。這就是為什麼我們在所提供的範圍方面比較保守的原因。

Okay. And then just last one, kind of on the macro front. I know you guys obviously have no client concentration. But just wanted to see if we can get an update on which parts of the economy these days you're most exposed to, construction, manufacturing, service industries, restaurants, whatever it may be. Just as people contemplate where the U.S. economy may be heading in the next 12 to 18 months, how we should be thinking about Paychex' exposures.

好的。最後還有一個，是關於宏觀的。我知道你們顯然沒有客戶集中度。我只是想了解一下，您目前主要關注哪些經濟領域，例如建築業、製造業、服務業、餐飲業等等。正當人們思考美國經濟在未來 12 至 18 個月內可能走向何方時，我們也該如何看待 Paychex 的風險敞口。

Yes. I think we're pretty well spread across all of the different sectors, and I don't think we're seeing any big change in any of those. We -- in our small business index that we put out for clients under 50, we're seeing kind of all sectors kind of hanging in there at the same -- manufacturing has been down, but it's about the same. And I would say that still the strongest from an index perspective is those other services, discretionary services and those type of things that we're pretty heavy in. So I would think that they're still doing pretty well and they're still -- they're not necessarily growing, but -- they're growing but they're growing at a slower rate than they have in the past, but they're still growing. And I think the thing would be to watch some of the minimum wage increases and has that done anything. We haven't seen a big impact from those at this point and instead, we're seeing sometimes more hours worked in general for those jobs. So I would say we're pretty spread out and we don't see any major concern at this point or we're not seeing any signs of necessarily a slowdown. Still growth, a little slower growth than in the past, but that was some of the recovery as well.

是的。我認為我們的業務已經相當全面地分佈在各個領域，而且我認為這些領域都不會出現任何重大變化。在我們為 50 歲以下客戶發布的小型企業指數中，我們看到所有行業都基本上保持穩定——製造業有所下降，但總體上保持不變。而且我認為，從指數的角度來看，表現最強勁的仍然是其他服務、非必需服務以及我們重點投資的那些領域。所以我認為他們目前的情況還不錯，而且他們仍在——雖然不一定是在增長，但是——他們確實在增長，只是增長速度比過去慢了些，但他們仍在增長。我認為應該觀察一下最低工資的成長情況，看看這些成長是否產生了任何影響。目前我們還沒有看到這些措施產生重大影響，相反，我們看到這些工作的工作時間總體上反而增加了。所以我覺得我們目前分佈比較分散，暫時沒有看到任何重大問題，也沒有看到任何放緩的跡象。經濟仍在成長，雖然成長比過去稍慢，但這同時也是復甦的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of James Berkley of Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 James Berkley 的思路。

Just wondering what you guys are seeing for bookings on the PEO side. Are you still trending low double-digit to low teens like you were last quarter? Any change in cadence there? And could you walk us through the worker's comp-related impacts to you going forward? Or just how you're thinking about that in the quarters ahead?

想了解一下各位在PEO方面看到的預訂情況。你們的成長率仍然像上個季度一樣，保持在兩位數到十幾的水平嗎？節奏有變化嗎？能否詳細介紹一下工傷賠償對您未來生活的影響？或者，您是如何考慮未來幾季的呢？

Yes. I would say on the PEO side, both existing client growth and worksite employees and the new sales have been very strong. As I mentioned, we're double-digit without the Oasis acquisition. And of course, with that, even stronger in the double-digit side. So we're showing very good strength in worksite employees. We now -- across PEO, ASO all of our products, we serve more worksite employees than anyone else, and we're showing great solid growth there.

是的。就 PEO 業務而言，現有客戶成長、工作場所員工成長以及新銷售額都非常強勁。正如我之前提到的，即使不考慮收購 Oasis，我們的利潤率也只有兩位數。當然，這樣一來，兩位數以上的數字就更加強勁了。因此，我們在工地員工方面展現了非常強勁的實力。現在，無論是在 PEO、ASO 還是我們所有的產品領域，我們服務的工地員工都比任何人都多，而且我們在該領域也展現出了強勁的成長勢頭。

As I mentioned, the need for HR and the benefits is so much -- so significant these days with the unemployment rate so low, particularly for small and midsized businesses, if they're going to attract and retain people, they really need the benefit of good benefit plans and good HR, which includes training and developing their people, data analytics, all the things that we're providing now, learning management systems that give them free training, modules that they can use or develop their own. So I think we're going to see continued good strong growth in the PEO side, in particular. And of course, our ASO side as well, if they don't necessarily want the PEO or don't qualify under underwriting, we take them through the insurance agency, of which we're the 20th largest in the country, and that gives us a great out that even many other PEO competitors do not have in their favor. Do you want to talk about worker's comp?

正如我之前提到的，如今失業率如此之低，人力資源和福利的重要性就更加凸顯，尤其是對於中小企業而言，如果他們想要吸引和留住人才，就真的需要良好的福利計劃和人力資源，包括員工培訓和發展、數據分析，以及我們現在提供的所有服務，例如提供免費培訓的學習管理系統，以及他們可以使用或開發自己的模組。所以我認為，尤其是在 PEO 領域，我們將繼續看到強勁的成長。當然，對於我們的ASO部門來說，如果他們不一定想要PEO或不符合承保條件，我們會讓他們通過保險代理機構，而我們是全國排名第20的保險代理機構，這給了我們一個很好的退出機制，甚至許多其他PEO競爭對手都沒有這種優勢。你想談談工傷賠償嗎？

Yes. So just to add some color on that, James. The -- 2 of the strongest quarters from a bookings perspective in the entire company were PEO, which was very strong, and then mid-market, which was very strong too. So we had 2 parts of business that had very, very strong growth from a bookings perspective. On the worker's comp side, it was, as we called it, a soft quarter. We think that's going to persist for at least 2 or 3 quarters. That's built into our guidance. Rates have softened pretty significantly. It tempers the growth of PEO. You can't see it as much because our PEO growth in the fourth quarter organically was in the upper teens. And so it's tempered a bit by the cyclical nature of the worker's comp market, which currently is soft, but we will see where we end up at the beginning of next year. So there's a couple of things that mask what is very, very strong performance on the PEO side, and we were very heartened also by a strong performance in mid-market HCM.

是的。詹姆斯，我再補充一點。從整個公司的預訂量來看，表現最強勁的兩個季度分別是 PEO（表現非常強勁）和中端市場（表現也非常強勁）。因此，從預訂量來看，我們有兩個業務部門實現了非常強勁的成長。就工傷賠償方面而言，正如我們所說，這是一個相對輕鬆的季度。我們認為這種情況至少會持續兩到三個季度。這已納入我們的指導方針中。利率已大幅下降。它抑制了 PEO 的成長。你可能不太能看出這一點，因為我們第四季度 PEO 的自然成長率達到了 10% 以上。因此，工傷賠償市場的周期性波動在一定程度上抑制了這一趨勢，目前市場疲軟，但我們將看看明年年初市場最終會如何發展。所以，有幾件事掩蓋了 PEO 方面非常非常強勁的業績，同時我們也對中階市場 HCM 的強勁表​​現感到非常鼓舞。

That's good to hear. Just two more quick things I wanted to touch on. Something that you guys mentioned, you talked SurePayroll briefly, just saying you had a great year there and you expect it to do well going forward, I think. Can you just expand on that a little bit? And then secondly, the duration comment you made. I think your portfolio is around, like, 3.1 years or so. Like, what can you bring that to? And how would that impact the $3 million to $4 million you referenced? How should -- or just a little more color on how we should think about that.

聽到這個消息真好。最後還有兩件事想簡單提一下。你們剛才提到了 SurePayroll，你們簡單地談到了它，說它去年發展得很好，而且預計它未來也會發展良好，我想是這樣的。能再詳細解釋一下嗎？其次，還有你提到的時長問題。我認為你的投資組合大概有 3.1 年左右的時間。那你能把它帶到哪裡去呢？那會對您提到的300萬至400萬美元產生什麼影響呢？應該如何——或者說，我們應該如何更詳細地思考這個問題。

Yes. I'll lead with the SurePayroll. Yes, they -- I think we have really mastered the handling of demand generation. We've put a lot of investment in that from both SurePayroll and Flex -- and Paychex Flex. And I think we've really done a great job as far as the investments in improving demand generation and nurturing, meaning including nurturing leads that were weaker leads in the past that we may have lost because we did -- they didn't -- weren't ready to buy yet. But we've got a quite complex nurturing process now, where we can reach out and continue to build the leads and get them when they're ready. SurePayroll, I think, has been not only priced effectively, but also through the demand generation, getting a lot more leads and been able to close them. And also allowing some self-service options.

是的。我先來說說SurePayroll。是的，他們——我認為我們已經真正掌握了需求生成的技巧。我們已經從 SurePayroll 和 Flex 以及 Paychex Flex 兩方面投入了大量資金。我認為我們在改善需求產生和培育方面的投資方面做得非常出色，這意味著要培育過去我們可能因為沒有（他們還沒準備好購買）而失去的那些較弱的潛在客戶。但我們現在有一個相當複雜的客戶培育流程，我們可以主動聯繫潛在客戶，不斷累積客戶資源，並在他們準備好時與他們達成交易。我認為，SurePayroll 不僅定價合理，而且透過需求創造，獲得了更多潛在客戶並成功促成了交易。同時也提供一些自助服務選項。

So allowing clients to kind of onboard themselves if they wish, which is a lot more self-service options that prospects want now. They can go in, they can start. If they need help, we'll jump in and help them. But that whole self-service part of it also another way of capturing a lead that was looking to get started right away. It may have been difficult to reach if we called them back. So the whole change -- the number of changes we've made in demand generation and handling telephonic sales, both here at Paychex and through SurePayroll, have been very strong, and we expect that growth to continue. I think the product, the service and the positioning of how we sell online and telephonically has become much stronger this year. Efrain, you want to take the duration...

這樣一來，客戶就可以根據自己的意願自行完成註冊，而這正是潛在客戶現在想要的更多自助選項。他們可以進去，他們可以開始了。如果他們需要幫助，我們會立即伸出援手。但這種自助服務模式也是獲取那些想要立即開始使用的潛在客戶的另一種方式。如果我們回撥電話，可能很難聯絡到他們。因此，我們在需求產生和電話銷售處理方面所做的改變，無論是在 Paychex 內部還是透過 SurePayroll，都非常強勁，我們預計這種成長勢頭將會持續下去。我認為今年我們的產品、服務以及線上和電話銷售定位都得到了極大的提升。埃弗雷恩，你想把時間控制在…

Yes. So -- yes, you're right, James. So the duration of the portfolio is in the low 3s. We could stretch that up to about 3.75 years of duration if we wanted to. We're obviously playing a number of those different variables across different scenarios. So that's why, I think in response to Jason's question -- actually maybe Ramsey and Jason's question, what we feel comfortable with is by setting the range where we are, we'll just see where the Fed ends up from a rate-cut perspective and then we can adjust the portfolio accordingly to not have a major impact.

是的。所以——是的，你說得對，詹姆斯。因此，該投資組合的久期在 3 秒左右。如果我們願意，我們可以將持續時間延長到大約 3.75 年。顯然，我們在不同的場景中會考慮許多不同的變數。所以，我認為，為了回​​答傑森的問題——實際上可能是拉姆齊和傑森的問題——我們覺得比較穩健的做法是，將投資範圍設定在我們目前的水平，然後看看美聯儲最終會採取什麼降息措施，之後我們可以相應地調整投資組合，以免產生重大影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane of Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Just a couple of clarifications. On that payroll client growth of 3%, was that in line with expectations? And how is that tracking historically? And should we just kind of model that same amount of growth going forward?

有幾點需要澄清。薪資客戶成長率為 3%，符合預期嗎？從歷史數據來看，情況如何？我們是否應該繼續保持這種成長速度？

Every year is a little bit different, Bryan. So I would say that -- what we say is that we expect payroll client growth to be in the 1% to 3% range. Last year, we didn't hit that target. This year, we're solidly within that. I would say that going forward, we expect to be within that range.

布萊恩，每年情況都略有不同。所以我想說的是——我們預計薪資客戶成長率將在 1% 到 3% 之間。去年，我們沒有達到這個目標。今年，我們完全符合這個目標。我認為，展望未來，我們預計會在這個範圍內。

Okay. Helpful. And then thinking about the PEO insurance revenue growth. I know in the back half, we're talking about 11% to 14% growth. I'm guessing the fourth quarter will be the strongest quarter though as some of the worker comp issues lap, and then what kind of growth rate should be a more normalized growth rate there once we get through the worker comp issue?

好的。很有幫助。然後思考 PEO 保險收入成長。我知道下半年，我們說的是11%到14%的成長。我估計第四季會是表現最好的一個季度，因為一些工傷賠償問題會逐漸解決。那麼，一旦我們解決了工傷賠償問題，那麼會是什麼樣的成長率才算比較正常呢？

I'm going to hold off talking about it specifically because there's -- by the time we get to Q4, there'll be lots of specific issues that are going to affect -- could affect that growth number, so I'll hold off. I think what we're comfortable with is saying where we are in the second half, we'll update as we go through the year.

我暫時不會具體談論這個問題，因為到第四季度，會有很多具體問題會影響到這個成長數字，所以我暫時不會談。我認為我們現在比較能接受的方案是，先說明我們下半年的進展情況，然後我們會根據今年的進展情況進行更新。

But the drag -- the primary -- primarily, the drag out there in kind of the second half is that worker's comp growth rate? Or just any other puts and takes. I know the business obviously outperformed, growing 18% -- I think it was -- 18% to 20% was the guide for fiscal year '19 originally and then now that's a little bit of a lower growth rate ex that. So just trying to make that delta change.

但最大的阻礙——最主要的阻礙——下半年最大的阻礙是工傷賠償成長率嗎？或其他任何形式的買賣交易。我知道公司業績明顯優於預期，成長了 18%——我記得是這樣——18% 到 20% 是 2019 財年的最初指導目標，但現在成長率略有下降。所以，我只是想做出這個微小的改變。

Yes. So I get where you're going. The -- I guess, Bryan, what I'd say is that we should have anniversaried a lot of the impacts by fourth quarter, but I have no idea of what the growth rate then -- the existing growth rate will be in -- at that point in -- market growth rate I should say, not ours. I know exactly what ours is. So I can't call that specifically. I think the fourth quarter will depend, in large measure, on how strong we exit the year next year with PEO, with Oasis in the fold. So I think it's going to depend on that, and also where we are with the worker's comp market. So there are still miles and miles to go before we get to Q4 of next year. But those will be the factors that will drive Q4 growth.

是的。我明白你的意思了。布萊恩，我想說的是，到第四季我們應該已經感受到很多影響了，但我不知道屆時的成長率——也就是市場成長率，而不是我們公司的成長率。我非常清楚我們家的狀況。所以我無法給出確切的答案。我認為第四季的業績很大程度上取決於明年 PEO 的發展勢頭，以及 Oasis 的加入。所以我認為這將取決於這一點，以及我們目前的工傷賠償市場狀況。所以距離明年第四季還有很長的路要走。但這些因素將推動第四季成長。

Okay. I got it. Just last question (inaudible) seems like that continues to move and improve. How much room is there still to go that you can improve client retention?

好的。我得到了它。最後一個問題（聽不清楚）似乎顯示情況仍在不斷好轉和改善。在提升顧客留存率方面，還有多少提升空間？

Bryan, you cut out just at the very beginning of that. Could you just say that again? I didn't hear it at all.

布萊恩，你剛開始就退出了。您能再說一次嗎？我完全沒聽到。

Yes. I just was asking about client retention. That seems like it's continued to improve and move in the right direction. Just trying to figure out how much more room is there for that to improve as you guys go forward here?

是的。我只是在問客戶留存率的問題。看起來情況一直在好轉，朝著正確的方向發展。我只是想弄清楚，隨著你們繼續前進，這方面還有多少提升空間？

Okay. Yes, I think we're very pleased with what we've done. We're at historic highs. So we'll always try to make that a little bit stronger. I think we're finding ways to service clients as they -- differently now, as they want to be serviced a little bit differently. It's not all, it's probably half of them that want that necessarily a telephonic payroll, dedicated payroll specialist. So many more are calling in, so many more are using the app, the chatbots and the -- that we're doing for self-service. So it's putting us in a place that we haven't been before that could drive a little bit more improvement. But given the number of losses in small business, which is still a large majority of the clients, I'd have to say, I like this -- I do see some improvement, but it probably has some top level it can get to when you just have a large number, half of them or more, a little bit more than that, are just out of business. So it'll depend a little bit on obviously the economy as well. But those leaving for service, price and those things, I think can still get a little bit more improvement out of it.

好的。是的，我認為我們對所取得的成就非常滿意。我們正處於歷史最高水準。所以我們會一直努力讓它變得更強一些。我認為我們正在找到為客戶服務的方式——現在他們希望得到的服務方式有所不同。並非全部，可能只有一半的人希望一定有電話薪資服務或專門的薪資專員。現在打電話的人更多了，使用應用程式、聊天機器人以及我們為自助服務所做的一切的人也更多了。所以，這讓我們處於一個前所未有的境地，這可能會推動我們取得更大的進步。但考慮到小企業損失的數量，而小企業仍然佔客戶的絕大多數，我不得不說，我喜歡這個——我確實看到了一些改善，但當大量企業（一半或更多，甚至更多）倒閉時，它可能就達到了一個上限。所以，這顯然也要某程度上取決於經濟狀況。但對於那些因為服務、價格等原因而離開的人來說，我認為它還可以得到一些改進。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

Just had a couple of modeling-related questions. I know you typically don't guide to free cash flow. Is there anything going on differently next year? Or should we just kind of assume this typical conversion rate from EBITDA?

我有一些關於建模的問題。我知道你通常不會指導自由現金流。明年會有什麼不同嗎？或者我們應該直接假設 EBITDA 的典型轉換率？

I think it's probably typical, Jeff. We also gave -- I think, in the investor slides, we give you an update on the D&A for next year versus this year, so you can calculate the incremental. And I know you're big on those 2 numbers so as -- and they're important. So they're in the slides there. But there should be no significant changes in terms of conversion.

我覺得這很正常，傑夫。我們還提供了——我認為，在投資者幻燈片中，我們更新了明年與今年的折舊和攤銷情況，以便您可以計算增量。我知道你很重視這兩個數字，而且它們很重要。所以它們都在幻燈片裡。但就轉換率而言，應該不會有重大變化。

All right. Great. You caught me on that, Efrain.

好的。偉大的。埃弗雷恩，你抓到我了。

No, you caught me. So...

不，你抓到我了。所以...

No worries. And then also just a minor one. You gave us some color on the cadence quarterly. I do appreciate that. Is there any specific impact from a margin perspective quarterly and also from a tax perspective quarterly?

不用擔心。還有一個很小的。你為我們介紹了季度節奏的一些細節。我很感激。從季度利潤率和季度稅收角度來看，是否有任何具體影響？

Well, I mean from a net perspective, there's some impact. You can -- when you work through the model of what I said, where the first half is 3% and I called out Q1, 1% to 2%, and then in the back half. So from a net perspective, obviously in the back half, what you're seeing is higher margins. But part of it is too that partly due to ASC 606, we have more -- we're more heavily back-half weighted than we used to be before. And so if you look at our expenses and you assume that there's not big changes quarter-over-quarter in our expenses, what you see is that the flow-through of the incremental revenue drives higher income in the back half of the year. That's what you're seeing.

嗯，我的意思是，從整體來看，還是有一些影響的。你可以——當你按照我所說的模型進行操作時，前半部分是 3%，我指出了第一季度，1% 到 2%，然後在後半部分。所以從整體來看，很明顯，在下半年，你會看到更高的利潤率。但部分原因也是由於 ASC 606 的規定，我們現在的後半部比以前更重要了。因此，如果你看一下我們的支出，並假設我們的支出在季度之間沒有太大變化，你會發現，增量收入的傳遞推動了下半年收入的增加。這就是你看到的。

Your next question comes from the line of Kartik Mehta of Northcoast Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Marty, I wanted to ask a little bit about the PEO business and Oasis. You talked about investment both in sales and technology. And I'm wondering, what kind of growth you are anticipating next year for the Oasis sales force? And just from a technology standpoint, is that just that you're going to have a more robust mobile offering? Or are there other investments that you're making in the business?

Marty，我想問一下關於 PEO 業務和 Oasis 的一些情況。您談到了在銷售和技術方面的投資。我想知道，您預期 Oasis 銷售團隊明年會有什麼樣的成長？從技術角度來看，是不是代表你們將推出更強大的行動產品？或者，你們還在公司進行其他投資嗎？

Yes. I think, Kartik, what you'll see, and we've already been doing some of this, is linking them to our product. So Oasis already now is linked to our time and attendance product, they're linked better to our -- interfacing with our 401(k) and our retirement services product. These are things that, that sales force has not had before. They also have the opportunity to use our insurance agency, which they didn't have before. So if they didn't -- as a PEO, if the underwriting didn't fit primarily, they couldn't necessarily take them for insurance -- for the insurance products. And now they can run those through our insurance agency.

是的。卡爾蒂克，我認為你會看到，而且我們已經在做一些這方面的工作了，那就是將它們與我們的產品聯繫起來。所以 Oasis 現在已經與我們的考勤產品連接起來，並且與我們的 401(k) 和退休服務產品連接得更好。這些都是銷售團隊以前從未擁有過的資源。他們現在也有機會使用我們公司的保險服務，這是他們以前沒有的。所以，如果他們不這樣做——作為一家 PEO，如果承保不合適，他們就不一定能為這些保險產品提供保險。現在他們可以透過我們的保險公司辦理這些業務了。

We're just kind of working through all of the sales teams, but we have all of the leadership team now in place for a number of months, for probably a quarter. And they're working through combining all of the sales processes and compensation plans and directions. And so they'll have more products to offer, they'll have insurance -- the insurance agencies to support them and they'll certainly have all of the tools with sales force and the level of technology that we use for our sales teams to track the leads and referrals, et cetera. So we're feeling that we're pretty solid coming into this fiscal year as we start this month, with Oasis and our PEO teams really -- and underwriting as well, all kind of combined and streamlined so that they're going to have a lot more to offer.

我們正在逐步組建所有銷售團隊，但領導團隊已經全部到位，未來幾個月，大概一個季度內都會如此。他們正在努力整合所有的銷售流程、薪資方案和方向。因此，他們將有更多產品可供選擇，他們將有保險——有保險機構為他們提供支持，當然也會擁有我們銷售團隊用來追蹤銷售線索和推薦等所需的所有工具和技術水平。因此，我們感覺到進入本財年時，我們的情況相當穩固。從本月開始，Oasis 和我們的 PEO 團隊，以及承保部門，都已整合並精簡，以便他們能夠提供更多服務。

And, Marty, I think you talked about maybe changing of how you're obtaining clients in the sense that -- I mean I don't know if you use this word or not, but inside sales. And has that -- I guess, how has, over the last 6 to 12 months, changed as to how you're obtaining clients versus just a sales force that knocks on doors versus somebody's that's inside?

瑪蒂，我想你之前提到要改變你獲取客戶的方式，例如——我不知道你是否用過這個詞，但就是內部銷售。那麼，在過去的 6 到 12 個月裡，你們獲取客戶的方式發生了哪些變化？是像以前那樣，銷售人員挨家挨戶敲門拜訪，還是像以前那樣，由專人上門拜訪？

Yes. The inside sales or telephonic sales here -- from a Paychex standpoint, has continued to increase their production. They're double-digit growth over last year. We're also introducing and trialing some self-service and really through SurePayroll, who has had that now for most of this year now. You're seeing that, one, the leads come in and they can either be addressed immediately by either the field or telephonically, depending kind of on the size and what they're looking for. If they're directly referred to by a CPA who is tied to our field sales rep, we'll get them right to the field sales rep immediately and they'll address it. If they'd rather just deal with something on the phone, do a demo over -- online and then close on the sale right there and have it implemented, we'll do that. And now we're moving -- you're going to see us moving toward a self-service option as well that SurePayroll has and it's been working very effectively.

是的。從 Paychex 的角度來看，這裡的內部銷售或電話銷售表現持續成長。與去年相比，實現了兩位數的成長。我們也在引入和試用一些自助服務，實際上是透過 SurePayroll，該公司今年大部分時間都在提供這項服務。你可以看到，第一，銷售線索進來後，可以根據銷售線索的規模和他們的需求，立即由現場人員或透過電話處理。如果是由與我公司現場銷售代表有聯繫的註冊會計師直接推薦的，我們會立即將他們轉交給現場銷售代表，由他們來處理。如果他們更願意透過電話處理事情，在線進行演示，然後當場完成交易並實施，我們也會這樣做。現在我們正在轉型——您將會看到我們也在向自助服務選項轉型，SurePayroll 就有這種選項，而且效果非常好。

One of the biggest issues with telephonic sales and leads, frankly, coming in is that once you have the lead where someone's been interested, they've filled out a form, you can't get back a hold of the prospect because nobody answers their phone anymore. So what we're doing is, we're -- by allowing self-service where the client can actually get started and set themselves up, if they have an issue, then we can talk to them. But they've already started -- almost completing the sale by starting to set up themselves, which they'd like to do immediately. So that is also really -- turned out very well for us, and we're seeing a lot of good leads there for sure. The field is still very important to us, particularly from a channel development. We still continue to be leader, I think, in the CPA referral market, in current client referrals. And that's done very strongly by the field and they'll continue to concentrate on that. But as more of the small -- the brand-new businesses start up and they come in through the web, the deal is how fast can you handle them, and they're certainly fine with handling that over the phone or setting it up themselves.

坦白說，電話銷售和潛在客戶獲取方面最大的問題之一是，一旦你獲得了潛在客戶，他們已經填寫了表格，你就無法再聯繫到該潛在客戶，因為沒有人再接電話了。所以我們現在所做的，就是允許客戶自助服務，讓他們能夠自己開始並進行設置，如果他們遇到問題，我們就可以和他們溝通。但他們已經開始了——幾乎已經完成了交易，他們開始著手準備，他們希望立即開始準備。所以這對我們來說也確實——結果非常好，而且我們肯定從中獲得了許多有價值的線索。該領域對我們來說仍然非常重要，尤其是在通路開發方面。我認為，在註冊會計師轉介市場和現有客戶轉介方面，我們仍然保持領先地位。而該領域在這方面做得非常出色，他們將繼續專注於此。但隨著越來越多的小型企業——尤其是新企業——透過網路開展業務，關鍵在於你能多快地處理它們，而它們當然很樂意透過電話處理或自己設定。

And then just one last question, Efrain. Obviously, the balance sheet, if other acquisition opportunity happen to come up, how -- what's the comfort level in terms of leverage for the company today?

埃弗雷恩，最後一個問題。顯然，如果出現其他收購機會，資產負債表會如何變化——公司目前的槓桿水平如何？

Well, Kartik, right now, as we end the year, we're at 0 net debt. So we certainly have the ability to get more leverage or be more levered if we want to. I don't think there is a specific number. We're going to be conservative about it, obviously. 1.5 turns of EBITDA, that starts to get a little bit higher in the range. If we go higher, it would really depend on whether we thought an acquisition was strategic or not. So I think it depends on the opportunity. Oasis, we used cash on hand. We borrowed $800 million. Oasis is going to be cash accretive. We have the capability of doing the right kind of targeted acquisitions to be more acquisitive, and it will depend on whether -- the size of the acquisition and how strategic the opportunity is.

卡爾蒂克，現在，在年底之際，我們的淨債務為零。所以，如果我們願意，我們當然有能力獲得更多槓桿或提高槓桿。我認為沒有具體的數字。顯然，我們會採取保守的做法。EBITDA 翻了 1.5 倍，這個數值開始在這個區間內稍微上升一些。如果價格更高，那就真的取決於我們是否認為某項收購具有戰略意義。所以我覺得這取決於機會。Oasis，我們用的是手邊的現金。我們借了8億美元。Oasis專案將會增加現金流。我們有能力進行正確的有針對性的收購，從而更積極地進行收購，但這取決於收購的規模和機會的策略意義。

Your next question comes from the line of David Grossman of Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman 的製作線。

Just wanted to go back to the growth of the PEO. But I guess I'm just having a little trouble following the math. So perhaps you could go back and reconcile the organic growth of the PEO in the fourth quarter, which I think you said was about 10%, with the high-teens growth for the year and then the guide of 11% to 14% in the back half of the year next year, which presumably is an organic number when we lap the comparison. I know worker's comp is a little bit of that. So if you could just maybe deconstruct that for us.

只是想再談談PEO的發展歷程。但我猜我只是在理解數學方面有點困難。所以，或許您可以回顧一下，將 PEO 第四季度的有機成長率（我認為您說過約為 10%）與全年接近 10% 的成長率以及明年下半年 11% 至 14% 的預期成長率進行對比，這大概是一個有機成長率，因為我們需要進行比較。我知道工傷賠償也包含這方面的成分。所以，如果您能為我們詳細解釋一下就太好了。

So now you started with a faulty premise. You said that PEO was 10%. PEO was not 10%, PEO and insurance was 10% in the quarter. PEO, as I mentioned before, if we isolate it, was upper teens, number one. Worksite growth -- worksite employee growth was, again, double digit. We didn't disclose an exact number, but you can see from the growth in worksite employees that Marty cited, we're up to 1.5 million of worksite employees serviced across our ASO and our PEO, that we had nice growth. So we had really good bookings growth organically on the PEO. The PEO at the end of the year organically was growing in the upper teens. And then in the back half of next year, we're calling out 11% to 14% once we anniversary Oasis. And what's going on there is that there is a drag from worker's comp that's impacting that number. So if there were no worker's comp, the number would be higher based on where we anticipate things will be as we get to the third and fourth quarter of next year. So hopefully that...

所以你的出發點是錯的。你說PEO是10%。本季 PEO 佔比不是 10%，PEO 和保險佔比是 10%。如我之前提到的，PEO，如果我們單獨來看，排名在十幾名，則排名第一。工作場所成長－工作場所員工成長率再次達到兩位數。我們沒有透露確切的數字，但從馬蒂提到的工作場所員工成長可以看出，我們透過 ASO 和 PEO 為 150 萬名工作場所員工提供服務，我們取得了不錯的成長。因此，我們在PEO平台上的預訂量實現了非常好的自然成長。年底 PEO 的自然成長率達到了十幾個百分點。然後，在明年下半年，當我們慶祝 Oasis 週年紀念日時，我們將宣布增長 11% 到 14%。而目前的情況是，工傷賠償金對這個數字產生了拖累。因此，如果沒有工傷賠償，根據我們對明年第三季和第四季情況的預期，這個數字將會更高。所以希望是如此…

Right. So I'm sorry. So you were high teens PEO growth in the fourth quarter and you were high teens for the year? Is that it?

正確的。我很抱歉。所以你們第四季的 PEO 成長率達到了 10% 以上，全年成長率也達到了 10% 以上？就這些嗎？

Yes. I think it's called out either in one of the slides or in -- I called it out in my comments, but our PEO growth for the year was 19%.

是的。我認為要么在其中一張幻燈片中提到了，要么在我的評論中提到了，我們 PEO 今年的增長率為 19%。

Got it. Sorry about that. Thank you for that clarification.

知道了。抱歉。謝謝你的解釋。

No. No, no. Yes, I think it's always important to remember that PEO and insurance has a -- has the Paychex Insurance Agency, and we're battling a bit of drag on the workers comp side that we will battle into next year. But we're obviously showing some pretty good underlying growth.

不。不，不。是的，我認為始終要記住，PEO 和保險之間存在著——例如 Paychex 保險代理公司，我們在工傷賠償方面遇到了一些阻礙，我們將把這種阻礙延續到明年。但我們顯然展現出相當不錯的潛在成長。

Right. Right. And then just there was a comment, I think, Marty, you made about the integration with the carriers as it relates to Oasis. So perhaps you can just give us a little bit more color on kind of where you are in that process. And how much incremental geographical reach you're getting as a result of that as you try to convert the payroll installed base?

正確的。正確的。然後，我想，Marty，你剛才提到了與 Oasis 相關的運營商整合問題。所以，能否再詳細介紹一下您目前在這個過程中所處的階段？在嘗試轉換現有薪資用戶群的過程中，您能因此獲得多少額外的地理覆蓋範圍？

Sure, David. There's really 2 pieces of that. Well, first of all, I'll say we're in -- I think we're in good shape. We're in middle of that now but have been already working through it and particularly in the last few months. So one, there is geographic growth because they were in some states and areas that we weren't. So they had relationships there and already had some clients that we could gain referrals from. From the carriers, they were a stronger -- they were stronger with one particular carrier that we have not been quite as strong with, that give us a little bit more leverage. When you put us together, now we have more strength and more clout with all the carriers that we're involved with.

當然可以，大衛。實際上，這其中包含兩個部分。首先，我想說我們──我認為我們處境不錯。我們現在正處於這個過程之中，但過去幾個月以來，我們一直在努力解決這個問題。首先，由於他們進入了我們尚未進入的一些州和地區，因此出現了地域性增長。所以他們在那裡有人脈，也已經有一些客戶，我們可以從他們那裡獲得推薦。從承運商的角度來看，他們實力更強——尤其是一家我們實力稍弱的承運商，這給了我們更大的談判籌碼。將我們團結起來，我們現在就擁有了更大的實力和影響力，能夠與我們合作的所有營運商建立更緊密的聯繫。

So we think we've got very good plans between the 2 of us going forward into fiscal '20 and those roll out kind of through the year. And so that gives us a better -- also when you have more clout, I guess, or more clients obviously we'll have better integration with those carriers as well. So I think we're set up well with the number of carriers, the plans and the integration with them. So it's going to give us an expansion into a little more -- a few more states that we're not in, but better than that, a little bit stronger carrier relations for the best benefit plans, which is one of the most important things to have as you go out and compete.

所以我們認為我們兩人之間已經制定了非常好的計劃，以推進到 2020 財年，這些計劃將在這一年中逐步推出。因此，這讓我們能夠更好地——而且，當你擁有更大的影響力，或擁有更多的客戶時，顯然我們也能更好地與這些運營商進行整合。所以我認為我們在運營商數量、套餐計劃以及與它們的整合方面都做得很好。所以這將使我們的業務拓展到更多的地方——一些我們尚未涉足的州，更重要的是，這將增強我們與保險公司的關係，從而提供最好的福利計劃，這對於我們走出去參與競爭來說至關重要。

Right. So as you look at kind of the geographic template with Oasis, do you think you've got pretty much solid coverage across the overlap with your installed base of payroll customers?

正確的。所以，當你審視 Oasis 的地理模板時，你認為它在與你的現有薪資客戶群重疊的區域內是否擁有相當可靠的覆蓋範圍？

Yes. We certainly do. Particularly, I wouldn't say it covers the whole map by any means, but it covers those states that particularly have an interest in PEO. And I don't mean just the Georgia, Florida, Texas, California kind of thing. It's going into more states as we expand it, but it definitely picked up. I think they were in 14 different states, so we definitely picked up more states and where there is more interest in PEO, so it expanded where we were from that standpoint. And again, as I mentioned earlier, we're already integrating them with some of our products that they didn't have to offer as well. So not only do you get clout with the carriers and the benefit plans that they can offer, but also now they can more easily sell time and attendance that's integrated, 401(k) that's integrated and they have our insurance agency to back them up from an -- if there is a client we don't want to underwrite.

是的。當然。尤其需要說明的是，我並不認為它涵蓋了整個地圖，但它涵蓋了對 PEO 特別感興趣的州。我指的不只是喬治亞州、佛羅裡達州、德州、加州那種地方。隨著業務拓展，它正在進入更多州，而且發展勢頭確實越來越好。我認為他們分佈在 14 個不同的州，所以我們肯定涵蓋了更多州，也涵蓋了對 PEO 更感興趣的地區，因此從這個角度來看，我們的業務範圍擴大了。而且，正如我之前提到的，我們已經將它們整合到我們的一些產品中，而這些產品是它們原本無法提供的。這樣一來，你不僅可以獲得保險公司及其提供的福利計劃的影響力，而且現在他們還可以更容易地銷售集成的考勤系統、集成的 401(k) 計劃，並且他們還有我們的保險代理機構的支持——如果遇到我們不想承保的客戶。

And, David, one other thing I would say, I want to make sure that it's not implicit in your -- in the assumption in your question. PEO is probably -- is unique among the products that we sell in that a significant amount of the sales come from outside the Paychex' client base. So if you take HROI and Oasis, you now have access to clients that are outside of the Paychex' traditional client base. So our expectations about growth in PEO are not solely based on the upsell of existing Paychex' clients, they're based on going out and getting new -- brand new to Paychex' clients in PEO, so it's a mixture of both. So when we talk geographic coverage, not just the base, it's also being in those geographies in a more concentrated way.

還有一件事，David，我想說的是，我想確保這一點不隱含在你的問題中的假設裡。PEO 可能是我們銷售的產品中獨一無二的，因為其相當一部分銷售額來自 Paychex 客戶群之外。因此，如果您選擇 HROI 和 Oasis，現在就可以接觸到 Paychex 傳統客戶群以外的客戶。因此，我們對 PEO 業務成長的預期並非僅基於現有 Paychex 客戶的追加銷售，而是基於走出去，獲得新的——對 Paychex 而言全新的 PEO 客戶，所以這是兩者的結合。所以當我們談到地理覆蓋範圍時，不僅是基地，還意味著以更集中的方式涵蓋這些地區。

Your next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

你的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Lisa Ellis。

Can you talk a little bit about the investment-focused areas for 2020? I mean you've had terrific success now with the digital marketing initiatives, sales initiatives, et cetera. You've got client base up, retention up. As you're looking out into 2020, what's the next wave of investment areas?

能談談2020年的投資重點領域嗎？我的意思是，你們在數位行銷、銷售等方面都取得了巨大的成功。你的客戶群擴大了，客戶留存率也提高了。展望2020年，您認為下一波投資熱點領域為何？

Yes. I think it continues to be in the innovation of the products and adding -- every -- about every 6 weeks, we're adding additional feature and functionality to the payroll products, and particularly the HR side of the business, whether it's learning management, whether it's a partnership with -- let me stick with the products for a second, then I want to go to partnership. But with the products like learning management, data analytics. I think you'll see also we're continuing to invest in the chatbot and artificial intelligence that we're using. We're seeing that to be a big help from the service perspective and also on the mobile app.

是的。我認為關鍵在於產品的創新，大約每 6 週，我們都會為薪資產品，特別是人力資源業務方面，添加額外的特性和功能，無論是學習管理，還是與其他機構的合作——讓我先談談產品，然後再談談合作。但有了學習管理、數據分析等產品。我想您還會看到，我們正在繼續投資我們正在使用的聊天機器人和人工智慧技術。我們發現，無論從服務角度或行動應用程式角度來看，這對使用者都有很大的幫助。

So we're continuing to make things simple for clients and their employees. 70% of our mobile app usage is employees of our clients. And what we're finding is things like when we make it easy to enroll in 401(k), where they can do it in 4 clicks now versus the paperwork and the passing of the paperwork to the client and to us and back and forth, that participant rate is already going up and -- those who are signing up for the 401(k). That leads to better client retention because they now pass all the compliance tests and they have their employees that are happy with the retirement plans and gives them better retention.

因此，我們將繼續努力簡化客戶及其員工的操作。我們行動應用的用戶中有 70% 是我們客戶的員工。我們發現，當我們簡化 401(k) 計劃的註冊流程，讓他們只需點擊 4 次即可完成註冊，而無需填寫紙質文件，也無需將文件傳遞給客戶和我們，來回傳遞，參與率就已經上升了——那些註冊 401(k) 計劃的人。這有助於提高客戶留存率，因為他們現在通過了所有合規性測試，而且他們的員工對退休計畫感到滿意，從而提高了員工留存率。

So the investment will be to continue to make things simple from the mobile app side, from the client employee side. Self-service is going to be -- just continues to be very important. Right from initially signing up, right through to setting up everything for yourself, there's a whole wave these days of clients and their employees wanting to do things themselves when they want to do it. So you've got to make everything simple. Luckily, our investments, very long ago, started to be -- our development was mobile-first, meaning everything is made, designed simple for the mobile app and then can expand for your desktop as you need it. So a big thing there.

因此，這項投資的目的是繼續簡化行動應用程式和客戶員工的操作。自助服務將會——而且會繼續——非常重要。從最初的註冊，到自行設定一切，如今客戶及其員工都希望在自己想做的時候自己動手，這股風潮席捲全球。所以你必須把一切都簡化。幸運的是，我們很久以前就開始進行投資——我們的開發是行動優先的，這意味著一切都是為行動應用程式而設計的，然後可以根據您的需求擴展到您的桌面。所以這可是件大事。

Partnerships will be, again, for -- we have the only large partnership that's been announced with Indeed. We are out there providing a connection directly to Flex, with basically the push of a tile or a button that will get you to Indeed and help you post a job, critically important right now in this low unemployment area. These are partnerships that we haven't necessarily done before, and we're being much more aggressive in trying to partner with what the needs of the client have been. So we're very pleased with the investments in artificial intelligence and chatbots. What that also I didn't even mention, has done for service. Now we're taking -- I mean 60% of the service requests coming in on a chatbot are handled by that -- or coming in online are being handled by that chatbot. That's freeing up our personnel for much more complicated questions and for more clients that they can handle, so it's really helping us from a service perspective as well.

再次強調，合作關係將用於——我們目前唯一宣布的大型合作夥伴關係是與 Indeed 的合作。我們正在提供直接連接到 Flex 的服務，只需輕按一個圖標或按鈕，即可跳到 Indeed 並幫助您發布職位，這在當前低失業率地區至關重要。這些都是我們以前從未嘗試過的合作模式，我們正在更積極主動地尋求與客戶合作，以滿足他們的需求。因此，我們對在人工智慧和聊天機器人領域的投資非常滿意。還有一點我甚至都沒提到，那就是它對服務的影響。現在，我們收到的服務請求中，有 60% 是透過聊天機器人處理的——或者說，在線上收到的服務請求中有 60% 是透過聊天機器人處理的。這樣一來，我們的員工就能騰出時間來處理更複雜的問題，服務更多的客戶，因此從服務角度來看，這對我們真的很有幫助。

Terrific. Efrain, I have a -- just my follow-up, a sort of back-to-basics question on the PEO and ASO business because you've mentioned a few times now, your insurance agency. Can you just remind us when and what types of clients you will take on the underlying actuarial risk? And then I guess I always thought that you reinsure that. So can you just clarify sort of in what situations are -- does a client end up entering the PEO versus end up using your insurance agency potentially? And like what differentiates those 2? And sort of how does it impact your economics?

了不起。Efrain，我有一個後續問題，一個關於 PEO 和 ASO 業務的基本問題，因為你已經多次提到你的保險代理商。能否提醒我們一下，您何時以及會接受哪些類型的客戶承擔基礎精算風險？然後，我一直以為你會再投保。所以，您能否具體說明一下，在哪些情況下，客戶最終會選擇 PEO 而不是最終使用您的保險代理機構？這兩者之間有什麼區別？那麼，這會對你的經濟狀況產生什麼樣的影響呢？

Yes. So just the 122nd flyover. On worker's comp, I'm going to say between 60% and 65% of all clients in PEO end up being underwritten by Paychex, and then we set reserves and have reinsurance above certain levels. Have been doing that for more than 2 decades without any issues. We look at that very, very closely. So then you say, well, what happens with the other 1/3? Well, there's certain clients that you don't want to underwrite worker's comp or we have the unique advantage of having an insurance agency right next door, so we will have -- we will place those clients with Paychex Insurance Agency. And one of the things that we found this year that was really a help was that by creating more of a tight linkage between the PEO and the insurance agency, it's now much more seamless to say to a client that otherwise we would not do worker's comp for, to simply refer them to the agency to see if they can get a policy placed. That's been a big plus and a big hit with our sales force, too.

是的。所以這只是第122次高架橋飛行。關於工傷賠償，我想說，PEO 所有客戶中 60% 到 65% 最終都由 Paychex 承保，然後我們設定準備金，並在超過一定水平時進行再保險。二十多年來一直如此，從未出現過任何問題。我們會非常仔細地研究這個問題。那麼，剩下的三分之一怎麼辦呢？嗯，有些客戶我們不想承保工傷賠償，或者我們有獨特的優勢，那就是隔壁就有一家保險代理公司，所以我們會——我們會把這些客戶交給 Paychex 保險代理公司。今年我們發現的一件非常有幫助的事情是，透過在 PEO 和保險代理機構之間建立更緊密的聯繫，現在可以更順暢地告訴客戶，如果原本我們不提供工傷賠償，我們可以直接將他們轉介給保險代理機構，看看他們是否可以獲得保單。這對我們的銷售團隊來說也是一大優勢，而且非常受歡迎。

On the health care side, it's primarily a state of Florida issue. There's a little bit of other risk we take and that's just a function of the concentration of clients that we have in Florida. We have an NPP plan. We do insurance with the Blues of Florida that gives access to a much broader network -- to a broader network of health care providers. And again, we look at the projected MLRs, our medical loss ratios, for the pool. We adjust reserves appropriately, and above a certain amount, we reinsure that risk. So that's basically what we're doing. More limited risk-taking on the health care side. We take some risk on worker's comp, reinsure it and then are very strict about who we let into the pool in either case, and refer other clients. By the way, I said worker's comp, in terms of insurance referrals, we also refer for health care to our agency. So we've got flexibility and this helps us kind of protect the quality of the pool in worker's comp and in health care.

在醫療保健方面，這主要是一個佛羅裡達州的問題。我們也承擔一些其他風險，這僅僅是因為我們在佛羅裡達州的客戶比較集中。我們有一項NPP計劃。我們透過佛羅裡達州藍十字藍盾保險公司投保，這使我們能夠接觸到更廣泛的醫療服務網絡。我們再次查看池子的預期醫療損失率 (MLR)。我們會適當調整準備金，超過一定金額後，我們會對該風險進行再保險。這就是我們基本上在做的事情。醫療保健方面的風險承擔更為有限。我們在工傷賠償方面承擔一定的風險，進行再保險，然後對加入保險池的人員非常嚴格，無論哪種情況，並推薦其他客戶。順便說一下，我剛才說的是工傷賠償，就保險轉介而言，我們也會將醫療保健方面的病人轉介到我們機構。因此，我們有了靈活性，這有助於我們保護工傷賠償和醫療保健領域的資金池品質。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh of Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

So I know you mentioned a couple of times on the retention that you're bumping up against historical levels. So as you think about the investments you've made, the kind of diversification into PEO, is it -- what's the probability we enter a new range on that? And I guess, Marty, can you remind us kind of where we are, where that number is today? And if it is in fact the case that we can kind of reset that range, what's a better way to think about that? And then just what's the sensitivity to 100 basis points in terms of revenue?

我知道你曾多次提到，在用戶留存率方面，你們已經接近歷史水準。所以，當你考慮你已經進行的投資，以及向 PEO 領域進行多元化投資時，我們進入新的投資區間的可能性有多大？那麼，馬蒂，你能提醒我們一下，我們現在的情況如何，這個數字現在是多少嗎？如果確實可以重置這個範圍，那麼還有什麼更好的思考方式呢？那麼，100個基點的變動對收入的敏感度究竟有多高？

Yes. I'll start with -- it's a little stronger than 82% on the client retention the way we look at it. I think it's a little bit better than that from a revenue perspective. We don't typically give that, but it's better than that. So our historic high has been right around that 82%. Now when you think about -- as I said, Kevin, earlier, when you think about losses for the small business side, it's pretty tough to get a lot better than that because small businesses just start up and go out of business, and obviously we've been able to handle that very effectively and profitably. But I think we'll look through the investments that I just talked about on Lisa's question.

是的。首先我要說的是──從我們的角度來看，客戶留存率比 82% 高一些。我認為從收入角度來看，情況比這略好。我們通常不會給那麼多，但這比那好多了。所以，我們的歷史最高紀錄一直都在 82% 左右。現在想想——就像我之前說的，凱文，想想小企業的損失，很難有比這更好的情況了，因為小企業總是開張又倒閉，顯然我們已經能夠非常有效且盈利地處理這種情況。但我認為我們會仔細研究我剛才在麗莎的問題中提到的那些投資。

When you think about the investments in chatbots and artificial intelligence and responding to clients even quicker, is there something there -- not to mention, we've done a lot of investment in data analytics and knowing models of which clients are most likely to leave us, and then we approach them kind of proactively through a retention team. I think all of those have -- that and the great service, which we are at historic highs for our Net Promoter Score as well, I think are all benefiting that, getting us to the best. So do I think we can do a little bit better than that? I think so. But I just think it is -- does have a top limit because of just the number of out-of-businesses that happen in the small business market.

當你想到我們在聊天機器人和人工智慧方面的投資，以及更快地回應客戶的需求，這其中是否蘊含著一些意義——更不用說，我們還在數據分析方面投入了大量資金，並建立了模型來預測哪些客戶最有可能離開我們，然後我們透過客戶留存團隊主動與他們接觸。我認為所有這些因素——包括我們優質的服務（我們的淨推薦值也達到了歷史新高）——都對此有所好處，使我們取得了最佳成績。所以，我認為我們還能做得更好嗎？我也這麼認為。但我認為，由於小企業市場倒閉的企業數量眾多，這個數字確實有上限。

Understood. And then just real quick. I know obviously, we've taken about 200 basis points of investment, put it back into the business, but you've shifted a lot of the capacity to the cloud. So just trying to get a sense, where are we in that cloud evolution, number one? And then just obviously, there's a certain amount of margin benefit from that as well. I guess twofold, when do some of those investments run off? And then what's the uplift on the margin as the capacity is done through the cloud as opposed to the traditional service?

明白了。然後就很快地結束。我知道，我們已經投入了大約 200 個基點的投資，並將其重新投入到業務中，但你們已經將許多容量轉移到了雲端。所以，我只是想了解一下，在雲端運算發展過程中，我們目前處於什麼階段？很顯然，這樣做也能帶來一定的利潤空間。我想有兩個原因，就是這些投資什麼時候會到期？那麼，與傳統服務相比，透過雲端實現容量提升後，邊際效益會有多大提升呢？

Yes. I think pretty much -- you could say everything is pretty much in the cloud now, the way the clients approach us and where our services are. I mean everything is software-as-a-service and everything is built, as I said, mobile-first. Everything is available that way. I think some of the additional investments that we've made and talked about will start to run off at the end of this year. We made an investment and a very deliberate investment to speed up some of the product development that we could see ourselves doing in the future. And so to take advantage of the tax savings to instead of just run it all to the bottom line in a onetime kind of fashion, hey, let's put some of this to accelerate the product development. We've been very happy with that. Obviously, it's driven the best client satisfaction and retention scores. It's improved our sales.

是的。我認為現在幾乎所有事情——可以說一切都在雲端，無論是客戶聯繫我們的方式，還是我們服務的所在地。我的意思是，一切都是軟體即服務，正如我所說，一切都是行動優先建構的。所有東西都可以透過這種方式獲得。我認為我們已經進行和討論過的一些額外投資將在今年年底開始陸續到期。我們進行了一筆投資，而且是經過深思熟慮的投資，目的是加快我們未來可能會進行的一些產品開發。因此，為了利用稅收優惠，而不是一次性地將所有資金用於利潤，不如將其中一部分用於加速產品開發。我們對此非常滿意。顯然，這帶來了最高的客戶滿意度和客戶留存率。它提高了我們的銷售額。

Overall, our par growth is the best it's been in 3 years from a sales perspective. So we're feeling like the right investments were put in place for sales -- for telephonic sales, for demand generation through marketing and through IT. But some of that through the IT will start to come off toward the back of the year. I don't think we've given what that will do necessarily to margins or probably will, but -- at this point, but it will roll off. Some of that will go back down to a little bit less investment -- normalized investment toward the end of this fiscal year.

從銷售角度來看，我們的整體成長率是近三年來最好的。因此，我們感覺已經為銷售投入了正確的資金——包括電話銷售、透過行銷和IT來創造需求。但其中一些IT方面的支出將在年底開始逐步減少。我認為我們還沒有考慮到這會對利潤率產生怎樣的影響，或者說可能會產生怎樣的影響，但是——就目前而言，這種影響會逐漸消失。其中一些投資將會減少一些——在本財年末恢復正常投資水準。

Yes. Hey, Kevin, one other thing I would say to answer that question qualitatively, as Marty said, the investments start to roll off as we exit this year, which is what we had said before. At that point, in the absence of any change in the mix of the business, you would expect operating margins now to start to float back up. The only caveat that I've said when I get asked on that question is, what is the growth of the PEO? Because the PEO has a moderating impact on margins. Now the offset to that would be faster revenue growth potentially. But I would say, as we go through the year, we'll have better sense of kind of what's the overall margin uplift. Underlying margin uplift, excluding PEO, is going to go up. PEO will have an impact overall, depending on mix.

是的。嘿，凱文，關於這個問題，我還有一點要補充，正如馬蒂所說，隨著我們今年年底的臨近，投資開始減少，這和我們之前說過的一樣。屆時，在業務組合沒有任何變化的情況下，預計營業利潤率將開始回升。當被問及這個問題時，我唯一補充的一點是，PEO 的成長情況如何？因為 PEO 對利潤率有調節作用。當然，這種不利影響可能會轉化為更快的收入成長。但我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們會對整體利潤率的提升幅度有更清楚的認識。不計 PEO 的影響，基礎利潤率提升將會上升。PEO 的整體影響取決於具體組合。

Got it. And, Efrain, if I could real quick, are you kind of where you are from a head count perspective? Or would there be some more optimization based on kind of how the capacity sits?

知道了。埃弗雷恩，如果可以的話，我想快速問一下，你們的人員配置情況如何？或者，是否可以根據產能現況進行進一步優化？

You mean just in general or are you specific to anything?

你是說一般情況，還是特別指某些特定方面？

I would say just -- either. However you want to answer that.

我覺得都可以。無論你想怎麼回答。

I mean I think, look, we're always -- we've got a history of being very profitable and making sure that we keep our cost low. I think we continue to always look for leverage. As Efrain said, the change in the margins have been mostly because of the PEO business. And the way that, that hits your financials drives a lot of revenue, but also has higher expenses and brings the kind of margin percent down. But I think we're always looking for ways to continue to leverage, and I think the investments we've made -- but again, back to when you think about artificial intelligence and chatbots and so forth, answering 60%, 70% of the questions, we certainly are looking to continue to drive some head count down where it's not needed. But we've also been very good at then reinvesting that head count where it is needed. So for years, we've taken head count out of operations where we got more efficient, and put it into technology where we knew the market was going. So I am not sure head count itself -- it'll all depend on where the growth is. And of course, we've grown head count really because of the growth in the business, not necessarily -- we haven't -- we've never really deleveraged from a head count perspective. In my at least 15 years, we've always driven head count down, but may have invested that somewhere else.

我的意思是，我認為，你看，我們一直——我們一直以來都非常盈利，並確保成本保持在較低水平。我認為我們會一直尋找可以利用的優勢。正如埃弗雷恩所說，利潤率的變化主要是由於 PEO 業務造成的。這種做法雖然能帶來大量收入，但也會導致更高的支出，進而降低利潤率。但我認為我們一直在尋找繼續利用現有資源的方法，而且我認為我們已經進行的投資——但是，再說一遍，當你想到人工智慧和聊天機器人等等，它們可以回答 60% 到 70% 的問題時，我們當然希望繼續減少一些不必要的人員數量。但我們也很擅長將這些人力重新投入最需要的地方。因此，多年來，我們不斷減少營運部門的人員數量，以提高營運效率，並將這些資源投入到我們知道市場發展方向的技術領域。所以我還不確定具體的人員數量——這完全取決於增長點在哪裡。當然，我們增加員工人數主要是因為業務成長，而不是——我們沒有——我們從來沒有真正從員工人數的角度去減少槓桿。在我任職的至少 15 年裡，我們一直在減少員工人數，但可能把省下的錢投資到了其他地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Just a quick question on retention. You had a lot of good questions there already, but just on Oasis specifically, do you have pretty good line of sight now on the retention there in the initial period? And I can't remember if you've said that there is an opportunity to maybe improve retention there once you apply the -- maybe the Paychex way there or not.

關於客戶留存率，我有個小問題。您之前已經提出了很多很好的問題，但就 Oasis 而言，您現在對初期階段的用戶留存率有比較清晰的了解嗎？我不記得你是否說過，一旦應用程式——或許是 Paychex 的方法，就有機會提高員工留存率。

Yes. No. We haven't really broken that out. I think we have a pretty good line of sight, that it's been pretty solid. We had no surprises whatsoever, which is always good on an acquisition. I think they've done a good job on the service side and selling to the right clients. We have not seen any fallout from insurance plan changes or anything else at this point. So I think the retention has been solid and there's always -- we're always looking for ways to improve it. But we certainly did not have any surprises and we're very satisfied with where they are in retention.

是的。不。我們還沒有真正把它單獨列出來。我認為我們已經有了相當清晰的認識，而且情況一直很穩定。收購過程中沒有任何意外發生，這對收購來說總是好事。我認為他們在服務方面做得很好，而且賣給了合適的客戶。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到保險計劃變更或其他任何事情造成任何不良後果。所以我認為用戶留存率一直很穩定，而且我們一直在尋找提高留存率的方法。但我們並沒有遇到任何意外，我們對他們的客戶留存率非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Samad Samana of Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

So Marty, based on your commentary, it looks like retention was up 100 basis points. It was 81% in last year's 10-K and you mentioned it's over 82% this fiscal year that just ended. So I'm curious, what did gross new customer adds grow in 2000 -- or in fiscal '19 versus fiscal '18? I'm just trying to parse how much of that 3.1% total customer growth was driven by the improvement in gross retention versus new customer adds.

所以馬蒂，根據你的評論，看來留存率提高了 100 個基點。去年的 10-K 報告中是 81%，您提到剛結束的本財年已經超過 82%。所以我很好奇，2000 年新增客戶總數增加了多少？或者 2019 財年與 2018 財年相比成長了多少？我只是想弄清楚這 3.1% 的客戶總成長中，有多少是由客戶留存率的提高所推動的，又有多少是由新客戶增加所推動的。

Yes. It's a mix of both. We don't break it out and we don't give that level of detail. But the -- certainly the overall growth of clients was a benefit of both good sales results and a little bit better retention. Just that improvement in retention alone on the payroll side would not have made that total difference there.

是的。兩者兼而有之。我們不會把它拆分出來，也不會提供那麼詳細的資訊。但客戶整體成長當然得益於良好的銷售業績和略微提高的客戶留存率。單單在薪資方面提高員工留任率並不能帶來如此徹底的改變。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon of Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

I was wondering, you mentioned that in the mid-market you ended up seeing good growth, and I'm wondering specifically, were there some new additions to the overall bundle that's driving that where -- what's the primary driver, do you think, of the improvement there? And I'll leave it there for now.

我想問的是，您提到在中端市場取得了良好的成長，我具體想知道，推動這一成長的是否是整體產品組合中新增了一些產品——您認為推動這一成長的主要因素是什麼？我暫時就說到這裡吧。

I think a couple of things. One, I think certainly the product adjustments that were -- the product enhancements that we've made, so adding data analytics, adding a new HR center, what we call HR center, gives you performance management support. Also the -- if I didn't mention it, the learning management. So everything that's needed this year from a recruiting, training, the personnel development that clients have been looking for, prospects are looking for, we have added and made it much stronger. And so I think from a product set, that's very good. From a sales perspective, I think the approach of going totally with HR and the HR needs has been very strong as well. So I think the approach of selling HR and approaching the client from their total HR needs has been strong and sales are up, probably the best growth we've seen again in 3 years in the mid-market, and we seem to be on a good path to start the new fiscal year as well.

我覺得有兩件事。首先，我認為我們所做的產品調整—產品改進，例如增加資料分析、增加一個新的人力資源中心（我們稱之為人力資源中心），可以為您提供績效管理支援。還有──如果我沒提到的話──學習管理。因此，今年客戶和潛在客戶所尋求的招募、培訓和人員發展等所有需求，我們都已增加並加強了。所以我覺得從產品組合來看，這非常好。從銷售角度來看，我認為完全迎合人力資源部門及其需求的做法也非常有效。所以我認為，從客戶的整體人力資源需求出發來銷售人力資源服務的方法非常有效，銷售額有所增長，這可能是我們近三年來在中端市場看到的最佳增長，而且我們似乎也走在一條良好的道路上，以迎接新財年的開始。

That's great. And then any changes in terms of the profile of those mid-market clients in terms of who you are winning them from? Or what sort of systems they had in place previously?

那太棒了。那麼，在中端市場客戶群方面，也就是你們從哪些方面贏得這些客戶方面，客戶組成是否有任何變化？還是他們之前採用的是什麼樣的系統？

No. I don't think so. I think from any of the competitors, I think we're doing pretty well, it's been pretty consistent. I think we're obviously winning a few more, I think, than we were, and I think that's again, the sales execution is stronger, the sales training is stronger and the product itself is stronger. So we're pretty pleased with the momentum we're seeing in the mid-market, and I wouldn't say it's from any one competitor. I think we're doing pretty well against all of them when you compare it historically.

不。我不這麼認為。我認為在所有競爭對手中，我們做得相當不錯，一直都很穩定。我認為我們現在贏得的訂單數量顯然比以前多，我認為這再次證明了銷售執行力更強、銷售培訓更到位以及產品本身更強大。因此，我們對目前在中端市場看到的成長勢頭感到非常滿意，而且我認為這並非來自任何單一的競爭對手。從歷史數據來看，我認為我們對陣他們所有球隊的表現都相當不錯。

Great. And then with regards to the improvements that you've made, it's been a very short period of time that you've already ramped up in terms of the chatbots and the ability to answer questions, and you're getting to 60% to 70% of them now. Where do you think that goes in a couple of years?

偉大的。至於你們所取得的改進，在很短的時間內，你們在聊天機器人和回答問題的能力方面已經取得了長足的進步，現在你們的完成率已經達到了 60% 到 70%。你覺得幾年後它會發展成什麼樣子？

I think -- I mean based on the improvements so far and what I read when you research this kind of -- around the country, I would think you could get up to 75%, maybe even 80%. And it's so easy -- well, I think it's easy, but our development team might not. But it's so -- you can be so responsive to the feedback of seeing if the question was answered or not, that you get so much better about refining the questions that they're -- being able to read the questions they were asking and respond to that. But I definitely think it could get up into the 75% range anyway, maybe even 80%.

我認為——我的意思是，根據目前為止的改進情況以及我在全國各地研究這類事情時讀到的內容——我認為可以達到 75%，甚至 80%。而且這很容易——嗯，我覺得很容易，但我們的開發團隊可能不這麼認為。但是，你可以非常迅速地回應回饋，看看問題是否得到了解答，這樣你就能更好地改進問題，能夠理解他們提出的問題並做出回應。但我認為它肯定能達到 75% 的水平，甚至可能達到 80%。

And you're directly tying the improvement in terms of the client retention and the client satisfaction scores to people who utilize the chatbot or are being serviced by it?

你是直接將客戶留存率和客戶滿意度評分的提升與使用聊天機器人或接受聊天機器人服務的人聯繫起來的嗎？

I wouldn't say it's that direct yet. I don't have it that specific, but I think it certainly is part of it, and we really ramped that up this year. And obviously, we've seen good satisfaction and we get good results. We always ask the client after they have received their answers, did this satisfy what you were looking for? And we're getting very good feedback on that and very good results. So it certainly I think it has helped in the client satisfaction, but I think primarily the satisfaction has been on the product, the ability of the product to serve the client, the ease of use of the product and the great service -- personalized service that we're providing.

我覺得現在還不能說關係這麼直接。我沒有那麼具體的說法，但我認為這肯定是其中的一部分，而我們今年確實加大了這方面的投入。顯然，我們已經獲得了良好的客戶滿意度，並且取得了良好的業績。我們總會在客戶收到答覆後詢問：這是否滿足了您的期望？我們收到了非常好的回饋，也取得了非常好的結果。所以，我認為這肯定有助於提高客戶滿意度，但我認為主要滿意度來自於產品本身，產品服務客戶的能力，產品的易用性以及我們提供的優質服務—個人化服務。

Great. And then with regards to self-implementation on the small end. I know it's really early days, but are you seeing any sort of -- maybe too early to tell, but is there any difference in terms of the client retention level that you see from clients that are willing self-implement?

偉大的。然後是關於小規模的自我實施方面。我知道現在下結論還為時過早，但是您是否看到任何東西——也許現在下結論還為時過早，但是您是否發現願意自行實施的客戶在客戶留存率方面有任何不同？

I think it's a little early to really have enough data there. But what you do see is, typically clients who set themselves up historically, even in a small sample, are more likely to be retained because they feel like it was their fault that there was a problem because they set themselves up and therefore, they own it a little bit more and they're a little more tolerant of giving us a chance to help fix the issue that they may have created.

我認為現在要獲得足夠的數據還為時過早。但我們發現，通常情況下，即使是小樣本，那些過去自己給自己製造問題的客戶也更有可能被我們留住，因為他們覺得是自己造成的問題，所以他們對此更有責任感，也更願意給我們機會來幫助他們解決他們可能造成的問題。

Got it. Great. And then just lastly, just worker's comp for next year and how we should think about insurance services? I'm not talking about this next fiscal year beyond the one that you've already guarded for, but for the second half when we go into the new calendar year, as you -- are you assuming that worker's comp rates are going to be down 15% to 25% in terms of your overall assumption? And then within PEO and insurance, what are you expecting the insurance part to be down?

知道了。偉大的。最後，關於明年的工傷賠償以及我們應該如何看待保險服務？我說的不是你已經準備好的下一個財政年度，而是進入新日曆年的下半年，你——你是否假設工傷賠償率會下降 15% 到 25%？那麼在 PEO 和保險領域，您預計保險部分會受到多大影響？

Okay. So that's a compound question. You've got 2 pieces to it. So let me just parse them. So with respect to worker's comp, the worker's comp I'm talking about is not a worker's comp that has anything to do with the PEO, so it's more -- take that out of your mind. This is purely...

好的。所以這是一個複合問題。它由兩個部分組成。讓我來解析一下。所以，關於工傷賠償，我所說的工傷賠償與 PEO 沒有任何關係，所以——請把這一點排除在外。這純粹是…

No. I've got that in my mind.

不。我心裡一直想著這件事。

Yes. So purely the worker's comp.

是的。所以純粹是工傷賠償。

Insurance.

保險。

Yes. Paychex' worker's comp. So I would say -- Mark, I don't know in the back half specifically how much we have it down, but certainly in the first half, where we decline pretty significantly versus first half of last year and then it starts to moderate -- the decline starts to moderate in the back half of the year because we start to experience the declines in worker's comp heavily in third and fourth quarter. So I think it moderates as we go through the year. I would not expect to be 15% to 20% down in fourth quarter again, that's way too much. But I would think we're getting closer to kind of flat or maybe even slightly above by the time we get to Q4, just because we're anniversarying some sharp declines in the back half of the year.

是的。Paychex 的工傷賠償。所以我想說——馬克，我不知道下半年具體下降了多少，但肯定的是，上半年與去年上半年相比下降幅度相當大，然後下降幅度開始緩和——下半年下降幅度開始緩和，因為我們在第三季度和第四季度開始大幅感受到工傷賠償金的下降。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，這種情況會逐漸緩和。我不認為第四季會再次出現 15% 到 20% 的下滑，那幅度太大了。但我認為，到第四季度，我們的經濟狀況可能會趨於平穩，甚至略有上升，因為下半年我們經歷了一些急劇下滑。

And then just for the insurance services revenue for the year?

那麼，僅就全年的保險服務收入而言呢？

So insurance in total, no, because health and benefits is growing nicely, actually had a good quarter revenue-wise for health and benefits. This is, again, health insurance that's [sold] to Paychex' clients. That's growing nicely at upper single digits, and we'd expect that to continue to grow nicely through the balance of the year.

所以，就整體保險而言，並沒有，因為健康和福利業務增長良好，實際上，健康和福利業務本季的收入表現良好。這再次說明，這是向 Paychex 的客戶銷售的健康保險。目前這一數字正以接近兩位數的成長速度穩定成長，我們預計今年剩餘時間這一增速將持續保持良好動能。

Your final question comes from the line of James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

你的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

It's Steven Wald on for James. Just maybe one quick one, following up on the margin discussion. I think you said, all else equal, past sort of 2020 results, with Oasis, expect the margin to sort of float up. I think on the last call, you had talk about expecting year-over-year EBITDA margin improvement in 2021. Can you speak to whether that's still your expectation? And also maybe sort of, if the okay times or good times, however you want to call it, continue, what the sort of upper limit is on the EBITDA or operating margin?

史蒂文·沃爾德替補詹姆斯上場。或許可以簡單問一個問題，跟進一下利潤率的討論。我認為你說過，在其他條件不變的情況下，考慮到 2020 年的業績，以及 Oasis 的業績，預計利潤率會有所上升。我認為在上次電話會議上，您談到預計 2021 年 EBITDA 利潤率將同比增長。您能否說明一下，這是否仍是您的預期？而且，如果經濟狀況良好（無論你怎麼稱呼它），那麼 EBITDA 或營業利潤率的上限是多少呢？

Yes. I can -- I'll answer the first and can't answer yet the second. I think we need to have a full year of Oasis under our belt and understand what the behavior of cost is in business. We understand what it will be in '21. We would expect EBITDA margin to float up in '21. There's many reasons for that, but I think that we should see some improvement on EBITDA margin. What is the ceiling of that? A little bit early to say at this point. We'll have a better sense when we go through the year.

是的。我可以回答第一個問題，但第二個問題暫時還無法回答。我認為我們需要對 Oasis 進行一整年的實踐，並了解成本在商業中的行為規律。我們了解2021年會是什麼樣子。我們預計 2021 年 EBITDA 利潤率將有所上升。造成這種情況的原因有很多，但我認為我們應該會看到 EBITDA 利潤率有所改善。它的上限是多少？現在下結論還為時過早。等一年過去了，我們就會更清楚了。

Thank you. I'll now return the call to Mr. Mucci for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在將回撥電話給穆奇先生，請他補充或作總結發言。

Thank you. And at this point, we'll close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast for the conference call, it will be archived for approximately 30 days. Thank you for taking the time to participate in our fourth quarter press release conference call and for your interest in Paychex. Have a great day.

謝謝。通話到此結束。如果您有興趣重播本次電話會議的網路直播，它將存檔約 30 天。感謝您抽空參加我們第四季的新聞發布電話會議，也感謝您對 Paychex 的關注。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. That does concludes the Paychex Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。Paychex 2019 財年第四季及全年財報電話到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。