沛齊 (PAYX) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Paychex, Inc. Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待，歡迎來到 Paychex 公司。發布2019財年第三季業績電話會議報告。（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Martin Mucci, President and Chief Executive Officer to begin.

現在我很高興把發言權交給總裁兼執行長馬丁·穆奇先生，讓他開始發言。

Great, thank you, Lori. Thank you for joining us for the discussion of the Paychex third quarter fiscal 2019 earnings release. Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer.

太好了，謝謝你，洛里。感謝您參加我們對 Paychex 2019 財年第三季財報發布的討論。今天和我一起出席的是我們的財務長埃弗雷恩·裡維拉。

This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the third quarter ended February 28, 2019. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations web page, and our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next few days. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately one month. On today's call, I will review business highlights for the third quarter, Efrain will review the third quarter financial results and discuss our guidance for fiscal 2019, and then we'll open it up for your questions.

今天早上，在市場開盤之前，我們發布了截至 2019 年 2 月 28 日的第三季財務業績。您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網頁查看我們的獲利報告，我們的 10-Q 表格將在未來幾天內提交給美國證券交易委員會。本次電話會議將透過網路進行直播，並將在我們的網站上存檔，供用戶觀看約一個月。在今天的電話會議上，我將回顧第三季度的業務亮點，Efrain 將回顧第三季度的財務業績並討論我們對 2019 財年的展望，然後我們將開放提問環節。

Financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 reflected solid progress against our objectives and growth across our major product lines. Our total revenue growth was 14% for the third quarter. Management solutions revenue grew 4% and PEO and insurance services revenues grew a strong 65%, of course, reflecting the inclusion of the Oasis Outsourcing Group acquisition.

2019 財年第三季的財務表現反映出我們在實現目標方面取得了穩健進展，並且我們的主要產品線均實現了成長。第三季總營收成長了14%。管理解決方案收入成長了 4%，而 PEO 和保險服務收入則強勁成長了 65%，這當然反映了 Oasis Outsourcing Group 收購的納入。

On December 20, 2018, we acquired Oasis, the largest privately held PEO in the U.S. and an industry leader in providing HR outsourcing services, for approximately $1.2 billion. We financed this acquisition with $800 million of new long-term debt along with cash on hand.

2018 年 12 月 20 日，我們以約 12 億美元的價格收購了 Oasis，Oasis 是美國最大的私人 PEO 公司，也是人力資源外包服務的產業領導者。我們利用8億美元的新增長期債務以及自有現金為此次收購提供了資金。

Oasis is a great fit for our PEO growth strategy, adding to our scale, expanding relationships with new insurance partners, creating up-sell opportunities into the existing Oasis customer base and augmenting our talent with an addition of an experienced leadership team. Integration of Oasis is in process with the combination of the Paychex and Oasis PEO leadership teams already complete.

Oasis 非常適合我們的 PEO 成長策略，它擴大了我們的規模，拓展了與新保險合作夥伴的關係，為現有的 Oasis 客戶群創造了追加銷售機會，並透過增加經驗豐富的領導團隊來增強我們的人才實力。Oasis 的整合正在進行中，Paychex 和 Oasis PEO 領導團隊的合併已經完成。

We're excited with the experience and talent that comprise this new team, and we're confident in their ability to continue to expand our leadership position in the HR outsourcing industry. In fact, Paychex and Oasis now will, combined, serve more than 1.4 million worksite employees through our various HR outsourcing services.

我們對這支新團隊的經驗和才能感到非常興奮，我們有信心他們能夠繼續擴大我們在人力資源外包產業的領導地位。事實上，Paychex 和 Oasis 合併後，將透過我們各種人力資源外包服務，為超過 140 萬名工作場所員工提供服務。

Execution and operations has been strong as reflected in our client satisfaction scores and client retention. We continue to be pleased with current retention results that are on track to the end of the fiscal year -- to end the fiscal year with retention in line with our historic all-time high. Our excellence in customer service was recently recognized as we earned a Stevie Award for customer service department of the year for the third straight year.

從客戶滿意度評分和客戶留存率來看，我們的執行和營運表現強勁。我們對目前的客戶留存率結果感到滿意，預計本財年結束時，客戶留存率將達到歷史最高水準。我們卓越的客戶服務最近得到了認可，我們連續第三年獲得史蒂夫獎年度最佳客戶服務部門獎。

One of the reasons for this recognition was our use of technology to evolve and improve the clients' and their employees' service experience. Our strength and focus on technology, including self-service options for our clients, allows us to proactively respond to the changing preferences of our clients' needs, and thank you to the thousands of Paychex service givers, who remain committed to responsiveness, reliability and serving as a trusted business partner to our clients.

獲得此項認可的原因之一是我們利用科技來發展和改善客戶及其員工的服務體驗。我們在技術方面的優勢和專注，包括為客戶提供自助服務選項，使我們能夠積極響應客戶不斷變化的需求，感謝成千上萬的 Paychex 服務人員，他們始終致力於快速響應、可靠服務，並成為客戶值得信賴的商業夥伴。

We made significant investments in our sales force this year, particularly, in our inside sales and mid-market sales teams and in lead or demand generation. We completed our selling season with improved performance led by our SurePayroll, HR Solutions, PEO and our inside payroll and insurance sales teams. Our internal sales teams continue to gain ground, reflecting improved sales execution and productivity.

今年我們對銷售團隊進行了大量投資，尤其是在內部銷售和中端市場銷售團隊以及線索或需求開發方面。在 SurePayroll、HR Solutions、PEO 以及內部薪資和保險銷售團隊的帶領下，我們的銷售季業績有所提升。我們的內部銷售團隊持續取得進展，反映出銷售執行力和生產力的提升。

Our Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch has recently showed that small business jobs growth remains pretty flat in this low unemployment economy, and hiring and retaining employees is a major challenge of businesses in this current environment. These factors, along with growth in wages, are evident certainly of a tight labor market.

我們 Paychex | IHS Markit 小型企業就業觀察報告最近顯示，在當前低失業率的經濟環境下，小型企業就業成長依然相當平穩，招募和留住員工是企業在當前環境下面臨的一項重大挑戰。這些因素，加上薪資成長，無疑顯示勞動市場緊張。

Paychex' position to help small and midsize businesses recruit, hire and retain talent, with a broad portfolio of service offerings that allows clients to provide an attractive compensation and benefits package, along with opportunities for growth and development of their employees. We continue to enhance Paychex Flex, making significant investments, designed to simplify the complexity of HR administration.

Paychex 的定位是幫助中小企業招募、僱用和留住人才，其廣泛的服務組合使客戶能夠提供有吸引力的薪酬和福利方案，以及員工的成長和發展機會。我們持續改善 Paychex Flex，投入巨資，旨在簡化人力資源管理的複雜性。

The latest enhancements bring more performance management, workflow approvals, real-time analytics and a configurable events calendar functionality to the platform. These features are all backed by self-service capabilities that empower employees and administrators to complete tasks from any location on any device. These significant technology product enhancements support our clients in recruiting, onboarding, training and developing their employees in a market where I mentioned that gets increasingly difficult to find and retain employees.

最新的增強功能為平台帶來了更多效能管理、工作流程審批、即時分析和可設定事件日曆功能。這些功能均由自助服務功能提供支持，使員工和管理員隨時隨地使用任何設備完成任務。這些重要的技術產品改進可以幫助我們的客戶在招募、入職、培訓和發展員工方面取得進步，而我之前提到過，在這個市場中，尋找和留住員工變得越來越困難。

In addition to our HR center offering, our broad product set allows our clients to provide competitive benefits, including retirement and insurance options. Finally, our clients are supported by a team of over 500 Paychex' HR specialists around the country, who serve their growing HR needs as states have increasingly made it more challenging to run and grow their businesses without this expertise.

除了我們的人力資源中心服務外，我們廣泛的產品組合使我們的客戶能夠提供具有競爭力的福利，包括退休和保險選擇。最後，我們擁有一支由 500 多名 Paychex 人力資源專家組成的團隊，遍布全國各地，為客戶提供支持，滿足他們不斷增長的人力資源需求。隨著各州對企業營運和發展提出了越來越高的要求，如果沒有這方面的專業知識，企業將面臨更大的挑戰。

We continue to enhance our technology for efficiency through the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning. The Flex Assistant, our AI chatbot, conducts conversations with our clients and their employees in response to a number of service inquiries. We have seen an increasing adoption of our chatbot because of the immediate response and quick and easy-to-understand solutions to customer inquiries as well as their employees' inquiries.

我們不斷利用人工智慧和機器學習來提陞技術效率。我們的 AI 聊天機器人 Flex Assistant 會與我們的客戶及其員工進行對話，以回應各種服務諮詢。由於我們的聊天機器人能夠立即回應客戶及其員工的諮詢，並提供快速且易於理解的解決方案，因此我們看到越來越多的人開始使用我們的聊天機器人。

This allows for efficiencies for us in internal processes by reallocating resources to more complex tasks. Our Paychex Flex Assistant can cover topics across the human capital management suite and guides users on how to self-serve if they prefer.

這樣一來，我們可以將資源重新分配到更複雜的任務上，從而提高內部流程的效率。我們的 Paychex Flex 助理可以涵蓋人力資本管理套件中的各種主題，並指導使用者如何自助服務（如果他們願意的話）。

The best AI chatbots' function through natural language processing to interpret users' language to understand and meet their needs. Combining NLP with machine learning enables a bot to quickly learn and adapt. And with the millions of monthly flex users, our chatbot is uniquely positioned to mature rapidly. Earlier this year, we launched client self-onboarding e-commerce functionality within our SurePayroll product. We are the first of public competitors -- public company competitors to utilize a true e-commerce technology.

最好的AI聊天機器人透過自然語言處理來解讀使用者的語言，從而理解並滿足他們的需求。將自然語言處理與機器學習結合，可以使機器人快速學習和適應。憑藉每月數百萬的 Flex 用戶，我們的聊天機器人擁有獨特的優勢，能夠快速成熟。今年早些時候，我們在 SurePayroll 產品中推出了客戶自助註冊電子商務功能。我們是第一家採用真正電子商務技術的上市公司競爭對手。

Paychex AccountantHQ, our latest technology and service offering designed exclusively for accountants, was recognized as a winner in the 2019 Big Innovation Awards, presented by the Business Intelligence Group. AccountantHQ provides a unique combination of technology and service, allowing accountants the full access to their authorized client data, extensive reporting capabilities, real-time data integration, key account contacts and an account and resource library, all backed by our industry-leading service model. AccountantHQ's dashboard and robust reporting capabilities allow for efficiencies but also data insights to help accountants deliver greater value as a trusted business partner.

Paychex AccountantHQ 是我們專為會計師設計的最新技術和服務產品，在由商業智慧集團頒發的 2019 年大型創新獎中榮獲殊榮。AccountantHQ 提供技術和服務的獨特組合，使會計師能夠完全存取其授權的客戶資料、強大的報告功能、即時資料整合、關鍵客戶聯絡人以及帳戶和資源庫，所有這些都由我們行業領先的服務模式提供支援。AccountantHQ 的儀錶板和強大的報告功能不僅可以提高效率，還可以提供數據洞察，幫助會計師作為值得信賴的業務合作夥伴創造更大的價值。

We are especially proud to have been recently recognized for the 11th time by Ethisphere Institute as one of the 2019 World's Most Ethical Companies. This honor recognizes fundamental -- a fundamental value of Paychex, which is to have the very highest ethical business practices for our clients, employees, shareholders and our communities. Thank you to all of our employees for the -- for consistently living this Paychex value and earning this recognition.

我們尤其感到自豪的是，我們最近第 11 次被 Ethisphere Institute 評為 2019 年全球最具商業道德企業之一。這項榮譽是對 Paychex 基本價值的認可，即對我們的客戶、員工、股東和社區秉持最高的商業道德標準。感謝我們所有員工一直以來實踐 Paychex 的價值觀，並因此獲得這份認可。

We were also named one of the top 125 training organizations by Training magazine for the 18th consecutive year, this year, climbing up 2 spots to #12. Paychex is dedicated to world-class employee learning and development and takes great pride in our training programs. Our training and development team empowers our employees to embrace a career-long approach to learning and development.

我們連續第 18 年被《培訓》雜誌評為頂尖 125 家培訓機構之一，今年更是上升了 2 位，排名第 12 位。Paychex致力於世界一流的員工學習和發展，並為我們的培訓計畫感到非常自豪。我們的培訓和發展團隊致力於讓員工秉持終身學習和發展的態度。

I'll conclude by emphasizing that our state-of-the-art technology, full suite of integrated HCM product offerings and personalized service is a powerful combination that positions us for sustainable growth within our markets. Our employees make this combination successful with their hard work and commitment to our clients each and every day.

最後，我要強調的是，我們先進的技術、全套整合式 HCM 產品以及個人化服務，是一個強大的組合，使我們能夠在市場中實現永續成長。我們的員工憑藉著每天的辛勤工作和對客戶的盡心盡責，使這一組合取得了成功。

I will now turn the call over to Efrain Rivera to review our financial results for the third quarter. Efrain?

現在我將把電話交給埃弗雷恩·裡維拉，讓他來回顧我們第三季度的財務表現。埃弗雷恩？

Thanks, Martin, and good morning. I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events.

謝謝你，馬丁，早安。我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議將包含有關未來事件的前瞻性陳述。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

involve risk. Please refer to our earnings release that provides disclosure on forward-looking statements and related risk factors.

存在風險。請參閱我們的獲利報告，其中揭露了前瞻性陳述及相關風險因素。

In addition, I'll periodically refer to some non-GAAP measures, such as adjusted operating income, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share. These measures include certain discrete tax items and onetime charges. Please refer to our press release and the investor presentation for a discussion of these measures and a reconciliation for the third quarter to their related GAAP measures.

此外，我也會定期參考一些非GAAP指標，例如調整後的營業收入、調整後的淨收入和調整後的稀釋每股盈餘。這些措施包括某些單獨的稅項和一次性費用。有關這些措施的討論以及第三季與其相關 GAAP 指標的調節表，請參閱我們的新聞稿和投資者簡報。

I will start by providing some of the key highlights for the quarter, then follow with some greater detail in certain areas. I'll touch briefly on year-to-date results and wrap with a review of our fiscal 2019 outlook and '20 framework. So look also at the investor presentation, we've got more detail there.

我將首先介紹本季的一些關鍵亮點，然後再就某些領域進行更詳細的闡述。我將簡要介紹今年迄今為止的業績，最後回顧一下我們 2019 財年的展望和 2020 年的框架。所以也請看看投資者演示文稿，那裡有更詳細的資訊。

Total revenue and total service revenue both grew 14% for the third quarter to $1.1 billion and $1 billion, respectively, our first $1 billion quarter and hopefully, the first of many to come.

第三季總營收和總服務營收均成長 14%，分別達到 11 億美元和 10 億美元，這是我們第一個季度營收突破 10 億美元，希望這只是未來眾多季營收突破 10 億美元的第一個季度。

The acquisition of Oasis in December 2018 accounted for approximately one half of the growth in service revenue. Expenses increased 13% for the third quarter to $641 million. The acquisition of Oasis contributed approximately 12% to this growth. Total expenses for the prior year 3 months ended February 28, 2018 included, as you'll recall, a onetime bonus paid to non-management employees and a onetime charge following the termination of certain licensing agreements.

2018 年 12 月對 Oasis 的收購約佔服務收入成長的一半。第三季支出成長13%，達到6.41億美元。收購 Oasis 為這一增長貢獻了約 12%。如您所知，截至 2018 年 2 月 28 日的前三個月的總支出包括向非管理階層員工支付的一次性獎金以及因終止某些許可協議而產生的一次性費用。

Total expenses, excluding Oasis and these onetime costs in their respective prior year period, increased approximately 9% compared to last year. This 9% growth was primarily driven by increased headcount due to investment in the sales force technology resources and operations to support the growth in the business. In addition, an increase in PEO insurance pass-through cost impacted the quarter.

不包括 Oasis 和去年同期發生的這些一次性費用，總支出比上一年增長了約 9%。9% 的成長主要得益於銷售團隊技術資源和營運方面的投資，從而增加了員工人數，以支持業務成長。此外，PEO保險轉嫁成本的增加也對本季造成了影響。

Operating income increased 16% to $429 million. Operating margin was 40.1% for the third quarter comparing to 39.4% for the same period last year. Adjusted operating income, which excludes the previously mentioned onetime charge in the prior year quarter, increased 7%. And I just keep referring you back to both the presentations we posted on the investor -- the investor presentation we posted on the website. It goes through an extensive detail, all of the callouts.

營業收入成長16%，達到4.29億美元。第三季營業利益率為 40.1%，而去年同期為 39.4%。經過調整後的營業收入（不包括去年同期的一次性費用）增加了 7%。我只想讓你們看看我們在投資者網站上發布的簡報——投資者簡報。它非常詳細地講解了所有細節，包括所有標註。

Our effective income tax rate was 23.7% for the third quarter compared to 1.1% for the same period last year. The enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act or tax reform in December 2017 resulted in a significant decline in the federal corporate statutory tax rate.

第三季我們的實際所得稅率為 23.7%，去年同期為 1.1%。2017 年 12 月頒布的《減稅與就業法案》（即稅改法案）導致聯邦企業法定稅率大幅下降。

In the third quarter last year, we recognized a net discrete tax benefit of $79 million from the revaluation of our net deferred tax liabilities at this lower rate or at the new lower rate. In addition, during the third quarter last year, we recognized the fiscal year-to-date catch-up for the lower-blended effective tax rate applicable for the fiscal year.

去年第三季度，我們確認了 7,900 萬美元的淨離散稅收收益，這是由於我們按較低稅率或新的較低稅率重新評估了我們的淨遞延所得稅負債。此外，在去年第三季度，我們確認了本財年迄今因適用較低綜合有效稅率而產生的追繳稅款。

These 2 items resulted in the low 1.1% effective rate for the prior year quarter. We anticipate that the effective tax rate before any discrete tax items will be approximately 24% for the full year of fiscal 2019. Again, I refer back to the investor presentation.

這兩個因素導致去年同期實際利率僅 1.1%。我們預計，2019 財年全年，在不計入任何單獨稅項的情況下，實際稅率約為 24%。我再次引用投資者報告。

Net income decreased 12% to 325% (sic) [$325 million] for the third quarter, primarily due to the significant tax impacts I just discussed, partially offset by the onetime charge following termination of certain licensing agreements also recognized in the last year's third quarter.

第三季淨收入下降 12% 至 325%（原文如此）[3.25 億美元]，主要原因是剛才我討論的重大稅收影響，部分被去年第三季度確認的因終止某些許可協議而產生的一次性費用所抵消。

Adjusted net income increased 3%. Adjusted net income is a non-GAAP measure that excludes the onetime charge related to termination of the licensing agreements, tax benefit, the revaluation of deferred tax liabilities and excess tax benefits related to employees' stock-based comp, which we call out. However, this measure still incorporates the impact of the year-to-date catch-up for the lower-blended federal corporate statutory rate recognized in the third quarter last year, which is moderating the growth for the current period.

調整後淨利成長3%。調整後的淨收入是一個非GAAP指標，它不包括與終止許可協議相關的一次性費用、稅收優惠、遞延所得稅負債的重估以及與員工股票期權激勵相關的超額稅收優惠，我們特此說明。然而，該措施仍包含了去年第三季確認的較低混合聯邦企業法定稅率的年初至今追趕效應，這正在緩和本期的成長。

Diluted earnings per share decreased 11% to $0.90 for the third quarter, but adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 3%. These growth trends reflect the same factors as discussed for net income. And again, I refer you back to the investor presentation, which details it.

第三季稀釋後每股盈餘下降 11% 至 0.90 美元，但調整後稀釋後每股盈餘成長 3%。這些成長趨勢反映了與淨收入方面討論的相同因素。我再次建議您參考投資者演示文稿，其中有詳細說明。

I will now provide some additional color in selected areas. Management solutions revenue, which includes payroll service revenue, together with our HCM products, included in many of our product bundles, increased 4% to $802 million for the third quarter. Lessor contributed less than 1% to the growth. The remaining increase was driven primarily by growth in client bases across our HCM services and growth in revenue per check, which improved as a result of price increases, net of discounts.

接下來，我將在選定區域中添加一些額外的顏色。管理解決方案收入（包括薪資服務收入）以及我們的 HCM 產品（包含在我們許多產品組合中）第三季成長 4%，達到 8.02 億美元。出租方對成長的貢獻不到1%。剩餘的成長主要得益於我們 HCM 服務客戶群的成長以及每筆交易收入的成長，而每筆交易收入的提高是由於價格上漲（扣除折扣後）所致。

PEO and insurance. It increased 65% to $246 million for the third quarter. Excluding Oasis, PEO and insurance service revenue would have increased 17% for the third quarter. This growth was primarily driven by the continued strong demand for our combined PEO services, which, along with WSE growth, the worksite employee growth and our existing client bases, resulted in solid growth and in client worksite employees served.

PEO和保險。第三季成長65%，達到2.46億美元。如果排除 Oasis 業務，第三季 PEO 和保險服務收入將成長 17%。這一成長主要得益於市場對我們綜合 PEO 服務的持續強勁需求，加上 WSE 的成長、工作場所員工的成長以及我們現有的客戶群，最終實現了穩健成長，並為客戶工作場所員工提供了更多服務。

Our insurance service revenue benefited from growth in the number of health and benefits applicants. The rate of growth for insurance services was moderated by softness in the workers' comp market. As state insurance funds declined, we expect this trend in workers' comp revenue to persist, and we expect it to persist in the next year, more to follow on that. It will have a modest impact.

我們的保險服務收入受益於健康和福利申請人數的成長。保險服務業的成長速度受到工傷賠償市場疲軟的抑制。隨著州保險基金的減少，我們預計工傷賠償收入的這種趨勢將會持續，並且預計明年還會持續，更多相關資訊將在後續報告中闡述。它只會產生輕微的影響。

Interest on funds held for clients. It increased 27% for the third quarter, $23 million, primarily as a result of higher average interest rates earned. Average balances for interest on funds held for clients were down for the third quarter, primarily driven by the impacts of lower client employees' tax withholdings resulting from tax reform and client base mix, partially offset by wage inflation.

為客戶持有的資金所產生的利息。第三季成長了 27%，達到 2,300 萬美元，主要原因是平均利息收入增加。第三季度，客戶資金利息平均餘額下降，主要原因是稅收改革和客戶群體結構變化導致客戶員工預扣稅款減少，但薪資上漲部分抵消了這一影響。

Investments and income. Our goal, as you know, is to protect principal and optimize liquidity. We continue to invest in high credit quality securities. The long-term portfolio currently has an average yield of 2.1% and an average duration of 3.1 years. Our combined portfolios have earned an average rate of return of 2% for the third quarter, up for -- from 1.5% last year.

投資和收入。如您所知，我們的目標是保護本金並優化流動性。我們將繼續投資於高信用等級的證券。長期投資組合目前的平均報酬率為 2.1%，平均久期為 3.1 年。我們綜合投資組合第三季的平均報酬率為 2%，高於去年同期的 1.5%。

Year-to-date results. Let me briefly summarize where we've been for this 9-month period. Management solutions revenue is up 4%, PEO and insurance revenue increased 40%, 23% without Oasis and 17% organic.

今年迄今的業績。讓我簡單總結一下過去九個月我們所取得的成就。管理解決方案收入成長 4%，PEO 和保險收入成長 40%，其中 23% 不包括 Oasis，17% 為有機成長。

Interest on funds held for clients increased 28%, driven by interest rate increases, partially offset by the impact of a 2% decline in average invested balances. Total revenue, this includes obviously, Oasis, up 10%. Operating margins were 37.8%, tempered by accelerated investments in the business and growth in PEO direct insurance costs. Net income increased 4%, and adjusted net income increased 12%. Diluted earnings per share increased 3%, but adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 12%.

受利率上升的推動，客戶資金利息增加了 28%，但平均投資餘額下降 2% 的影響部分抵消了這一增長。總收入（顯然包括 Oasis）增加了 10%。營業利益率為 37.8%，但受到業務投資加速和 PEO 直接保險成本成長的影響。淨利成長4%，調整後淨利成長12%。稀釋後每股收益成長 3%，但調整後稀釋後每股收益成長 12%。

Let's go through the highlights of our financial position. It remains strong with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of $886 million as of February 28, 2019.

讓我們一起來看看我們財務狀況的要點。截至 2019 年 2 月 28 日，該公司現金、受限現金和公司總投資額為 8.86 億美元，財務狀況仍然強勁。

We had a strong cash flow quarter, even though we utilized part of our cash to pay for the Oasis acquisition. Funds held for clients as of February 28, 2019 were $5.4 billion compared to $4.7 billion as of the -- as of May 31, 2018. Funds held for clients, as you know, vary widely in a day-to-day basis, averaging $4.4 billion for the third quarter and $3.9 billion for the 9 months.

儘管我們動用了部分現金來支付收購 Oasis 的費用，但我們本季的現金流依然強勁。截至 2019 年 2 月 28 日，為客戶持有的資金為 54 億美元，而截至 2018 年 5 月 31 日，金額為 47 億美元。如您所知，為客戶持有的資金每天都有很大的波動，第三季平均為 44 億美元，前 9 個月平均為 39 億美元。

Total available for sale investments, including corporate investments and funds held for clients reflected net unrealized losses of $10 million compared with $38 million as of May 31, 2018. Total stockholders' equity was $2.6 billion as of February 28, 2019, reflecting $604 million in dividends paid and $33 million of shares repurchased during the last -- I'm sorry, the first 9 months of fiscal 2019.

截至 2018 年 5 月 31 日，可供出售的投資總額（包括公司投資和為客戶持有的資金）反映出未實現淨虧損 1,000 萬美元，而 2018 年 5 月 31 日為 3,800 萬美元。截至 2019 年 2 月 28 日，股東權益總額為 26 億美元，其中包括在 2019 財年的前 9 個月支付的 6.04 億美元股息和回購的 3,300 萬美元股票。

Our return on equity for the past 12 months was a formidable 42%. Cash flows from operations were $1 billion for the 9 months, an increase of 3% from the same period last year. The increase was driven by higher net income and noncash adjustments, partially offset by working capital fluctuations, working capital fluctuations related to timing around collections and related tax payments for the combined PEO business, a decrease in accrued liability balances in connection with the termination of certain licensing agreements in fiscal 2018.

過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率高達 42%。前九個月的營運活動現金流量為 10 億美元，比去年同期成長 3%。成長主要由淨收入和非現金調整推動，部分被營運資本波動、與合併後的 PEO 業務收款和相關稅款支付時間相關的營運資本波動、以及 2018 財年終止某些許可協議導致的應計負債餘額減少所抵銷。

Now turning to 2019 guidance. I will discuss the guidance for full year fiscal 2019. I'd remind you that our outlook is based upon our current view of economic conditions. Continue with no significant changes, we maintained our guidance as provided last quarter, with -- including the overlay on Oasis, which I'll talk about in a second. I will reiterate these guidance ranges and provide some color where applicable.

現在來看2019年的指導意見。我將討論2019財年全年業績指引。我想提醒各位，我們的觀點是基於我們對當前經濟狀況的看法。我們繼續保持上個季度提供的業績指引，沒有做出任何重大改變，其中包括 Oasis 的額外影響，我稍後會談到這一點。我將重申這些指導範圍，並在適用情況下提供一些細節說明。

And then just finally to remind everyone, I'll give the guidance first excluding any anticipated impact from the Oasis acquisition, then follow it with the anticipated impact of Oasis on our results. And I would say this, the -- some of you have updated your models for the inclusion of Oasis, some have not, and so we thought that it made more sense and was better to be very clear to say, here's what our base guidance is and then the overlay of Oasis, so just remember that as I walk through this. So excluding Oasis, management solutions, expected to grow approximately 4%; PEO and insurance, anticipated to grow in the range of 18% to 20%; interest on funds held for clients, anticipated to grow 20% to 25%; total revenue, anticipated to grow in the range of 6% to 7%; operating income as a percent of total revenue, anticipated to be approximately 37%; interest income, net, anticipated to be in the range of $10 million to $15 million; the effective income tax rate for fiscal 2019, expected to be approximately 24%; net income and diluted earnings per share anticipated to grow approximately 4%; adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share, both expected to increase in the range of 11% to 12%. We give the guidance this way so there can be no confusion as the fact that we're tracking exactly to the plan that we set at the beginning of the year, and don't blend or confuse the info on Oasis.

最後提醒大家，我將先給予不考慮 Oasis 收購可能帶來的任何預期影響的業績指引，然後再給予 Oasis 收購可能對我們業績產生的預期影響。我想說的是，你們當中有些人已經更新了模型以包含 Oasis，有些人還沒有，所以我們認為更有意義，也更好，應該非常清楚地說明，這是我們的基本指導原則，然後是 Oasis 的疊加，所以請記住這一點，我會繼續講解。因此，除 Oasis 外，管理解決方案預計增長約 4%；PEO 和保險預計增長 18% 至 20%；為客戶持有的資金利息預計增長 20% 至 25%；總收入預計增長 6% 至 7%；營業收入佔總收入的百分比預計約為 37%；淨利息收入預計增長 6% 至 7%；營業收入佔總收入的百分比預計約為 37%；淨利息收入預計在 1000 萬美元之間預計在 100 萬美元之間的實際收入稅率約為 1000 萬美元預計在 100 萬美元之間的實際收入稅率預計在 1000 萬美元之間預計在 100 萬美元之間的實際收入稅率約為 1000 萬美元的實際收入稅率預計在 100 萬美元； 24%；淨收入和稀釋後每股收益預計增長約 4%；調整後淨收入和調整後稀釋後每股收益預計均增長 11% 至 12%。我們以這種方式提供指導，是為了避免任何誤解，因為我們正在嚴格按照年初制定的計劃進行，並且不會混淆 Oasis 上的信息。

So now let's talk about it when we include Oasis. It's anticipated, as we said previously, they have an incremental impact on total revenue in the range of $155 million to $175 million in fiscal 2019. As we've refined these numbers, we think that number is going to be on the lower end of that range, in the low 160s. Excluding onetime cost related to the acquisition, Oasis is anticipated to have minimal impact on earnings per share. Now when we include onetime acquisition and integration costs, we anticipate the impact on diluted earnings per share to be approximately $0.03 per share for fiscal 2019. And that's consistent with what we've said previously, a little more color on where we fall within that $155 million to $175 million, and that really has everything to do with the way we are looking at pass-through costs in that business.

那麼現在就讓我們來談談把 Oasis 也考慮進去的情況。正如我們之前所說，預計它們將在 2019 財年為總收入帶來 1.55 億美元至 1.75 億美元的增量影響。經過我們不斷完善這些數字，我們認為這個數字會處於該範圍的下限，大約在 160 左右。除與收購相關的一次性成本外，預計 Oasis 對每股盈餘的影響微乎其微。現在，當我們把一次性收購和整合成本考慮在內時，我們預計對 2019 財年稀釋後每股盈餘的影響約為 0.03 美元。這與我們之前所說的一致，更詳細地說明我們在 1.55 億美元到 1.75 億美元之間的位置，這實際上與我們如何看待該業務中的轉嫁成本息息相關。

I'll provide you with a little additional color for the last quarter of the year. Consistent with how we guided on last quarter's call, we anticipate that management solutions revenue growth in Q4 will be below the full year rate due to the anniversary, primarily, among other things, of the Lessor acquisition, we still think that management solutions will fall between 3% and 4%. Last quarter, we indicated that for Q3, we anticipated PEO and insurance services revenue increase in the range of 15% to 17% and for Q4 to be in the range of 10% to 13%. Growth in Q3 came in at the high end of the guidance range we provided last quarter, and we now expect growth for Q4 to be approximately 9%, so below that range.

在今年最後一個季度，我將為大家帶來一些額外的色彩。與上個季度電話會議中的指導一致，我們預計第四季度管理解決方案收入成長將低於全年成長率，這主要是由於收購 Lessor 週年紀念日等原因，我們仍然認為管理解決方案的成長率將下降 3% 至 4%。上個季度，我們曾表示，預計第三季 PEO 和保險服務收入將成長 15% 至 17%，第四季將成長 10% 至 13%。第三季的成長達到了我們上個季度給出的預期範圍的高端，我們現在預計第四季度的成長約為 9%，低於該範圍。

There's 2 reasons for that, there was some timing of revenue that shifted between quarters on the insurance side. And despite this, we anticipate achieving our full year guidance range. We'll talk a little bit more about what we're seeing as we talk about the '20 guidance, but there's also a little bit of softness on the workers comp portion of our insurance revenue that pulls that revenue down a bit.

原因有二：一是保險業務的收入在各季度之間有時間的差異。儘管如此，我們預計仍能實現全年業績預期目標。在談到 2020 年業績指引時，我們會再詳細談談我們所看到的情況，但我們保險收入中的工傷賠償部分也略顯疲軟，這在一定程度上拉低了總收入。

Now let me talk about the 2020, and I would just caveat everything I'm saying by saying that we haven't completed our planning process, but we thought, given the Oasis acquisition and the fact that you'll need to update models, we thought we'd give you some preview of what we're looking at for the year, including Oasis.

現在讓我談談 2020 年，我先聲明一下，我們還沒有完成規劃流程，但考慮到收購 Oasis 以及您需要更新車型，我們認為可以提前向您展示我們今年的計劃，包括 Oasis 的計劃。

We'll provide detailed guidance during our fiscal 2019 fourth quarter call as we always do. But let me give you some high-level commentary based on a preliminary look into next fiscal year.

我們將像往常一樣，在 2019 財年第四季電話會議上提供詳細的指導。但讓我根據對下一個財政年度的初步觀察，給大家做一些高層次的評論。

Management solutions revenue growth, we anticipate it to be comparable to the growth in 2019. PEO and insurance revenue, excluding Oasis, anticipated to reflect low double-digit growth, so that means about in the range of around 10%. Including Oasis, PEO and insurance services revenue growth will be in the range of 30% to 35% with growth higher in the first half of the year until the anniversary of the Oasis acquisition.

管理解決方案收入成長方面，我們預期與 2019 年的成長相當。預計 PEO 和保險收入（不包括 Oasis）將達到兩位數低成長，這意味著成長幅度約為 10%。包括 Oasis 在內的 PEO 和保險服務收入成長將在 30% 至 35% 之間，其中上半年成長更為顯著，直至 Oasis 收購週年紀念日。

Operating margins at this stage we think will be in the range of 37% to 38%. We'll see where we end this year, but that anticipates some improvement, some leverage on the base business. We anticipate Oasis will contribute revenue in the range of $355 million to $375 million next year, and it's going to be largely neutral to earnings per share.

我們認為現階段的營業利益率將在 37% 至 38% 之間。我們拭目以待今年的最終結果，但預計會有一些改善，基礎業務也會有所提升。我們預計 Oasis 明年將貢獻 3.55 億美元至 3.75 億美元的收入，並且對每股盈餘的影響基本上為中性。

With the significance of the interest expense and the amortization expense associated with the Oasis acquisition, we introduced a discussion of EBITDA margins. Please refer to the investor presentation on our IR web page for the calculation of EBITDA for the 9 months of -- first 9 months of fiscal 2019. We anticipate EBITDA for the full year fiscal 2019 will be approximately 41%, and we expect EBITDA as a percent of total revenue for fiscal 2020 to be consistent with fiscal 2019. And if you look at the way we calculate EBITDA, it's pretty simple and should be pretty easy to follow.

考慮到與 Oasis 收購相關的利息支出和攤銷支出的重要性，我們引入了 EBITDA 利潤率的討論。有關 2019 財年前 9 個月 EBITDA 的計算方法，請參閱我們投資者關係網頁上的投資者簡報。我們預計 2019 財年全年 EBITDA 將約為 41%，並預計 2020 財年 EBITDA 佔總營收的百分比將與 2019 財年保持一致。如果你看一下我們計算 EBITDA 的方法，你會發現它非常簡單，而且很容易理解。

I reiterate that these comments are very preliminary and subject to revision as we finalize our plans for next year. I will refer you to our investor slides on our website for more information. By the way, I just wanted to clarify one thing that 37% to 38%, it's clear on the web page, would exclude -- that operating margin I cited would exclude Oasis.

我再次重申，這些評論只是初步的，隨著我們最終確定明年的計劃，這些評論可能會有所修改。更多資訊請參閱我們網站上的投資者簡報。順便說一下，我想澄清一點，網頁上明確指出，37% 到 38% 的營業利潤率不包括 Oasis。

So look at the slide, it I think lays it out pretty clearly. So with that, I'll end my comments and turn it back to Marty.

請看這張投影片，我認為它解釋得很清楚。那麼，我的發言就到此為止，接下來把話題交還給馬蒂。

Okay, thank you, Efrain. And operator, now we'll open the call to questions, please.

好的，謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。接線員，現在我們開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

This is Damian on for Ramsey. I just -- hoping you guys can talk a little bit about your long-term growth expectations for the PEO and insurance revenue, obviously, you'd provided that preliminary framework for 2020, which I really appreciate at the low double digits. But I think we were thinking about that more in like a mid-teens type of a rate. Can you maybe dissect what's going on in there? And why the deceleration year-over-year?

這是達米安替補拉姆齊上場。我只是希望你們能談談對 PEO 和保險收入的長期成長預期，顯然，你們已經提供了 2020 年的初步框架，我非常讚賞你們設定的兩位數低成長率。但我認為我們當時考慮的利率大概在十幾個百分點點左右。能分析一下裡面到底發生了什麼事嗎？為什麼會出現年比增速放緩的情況？

So the answer to that is, I gave you PEO and insurance. So our PEO business, our base PEO business is growing in the teens, insurance pulls that growth rate down a little bit. I would just say that insurance revenue can vary from year-to-year. It could very well be by the back half of next year, growth in insurance revenue picks up again. So it oscillates. Our PEO growth, we expect it to be in the teens. So that's one thing. And then the second thing is, we'll have to see when we anniversary Oasis, what our growth rate coming out of that will be because the numbers are larger. So I think that's the answer to the question.

所以答案是，我給你提供了 PEO 和保險。所以我們的 PEO 業務，我們的基礎 PEO 業務，成長率達到兩位數，保險業務稍微拉低了成長率。我只想說，保險收入可能會逐年波動。保險收入很可能在明年下半年再次加速成長。所以它會振盪。我們預計 PEO 業務的成長將達到兩位數。這是其中一件事。其次，我們也要看看 Oasis 週年紀念日時，我們的成長率會是多少，因為屆時的數字會更大。所以我想這就是問題的答案了。

Okay. And on the operating margin then for 2020. It's nice to see some of the leverage in the model there. Maybe if you could talk about some places that you guys are looking to invest next year or maybe in Q4 here and then into next year. Like what are the places that you guys are going to invest in? And how that kind of plays into your operating margin expectations?

好的。那麼，2020 年的營業利益率又如何呢？很高興看到模型中運用了一些槓桿作用。或許你們可以談談你們明年，或者說第四季以及明年計劃投資的一些地方。你們打算投資哪些地方？那這會對您的營業利潤率預期產生什麼影響呢？

I would say that as we get into next year, we identified areas where we would invest this year as part of tax reform. And so there will be a continuation of those 3 broad buckets of investment. Not at the same level that we invested this year, certainly, on a net basis, meaning, we're getting some benefits from it, so you don't -- well, you won't see that -- the same level of net spend that you saw this year. But we will continue to invest in marketing and sales, I think a little bit less in sales. And on the marketing side, continue to invest in operational efficiencies and then continue to work on IP and product. So Martin, you can go.

我想說，展望明年，我們已經確定了今年將在哪些領域進行投資，作為稅收改革的一部分。因此，這三大投資領域將會持續下去。當然，淨投入肯定不會達到我們今年的投資水平，也就是說，我們從中獲得了一些收益，所以你不會看到——嗯，你不會看到——與今年相同的淨支出水平。但我們會繼續投資於行銷和銷售，我認為銷售方面的投入會略有減少。在行銷方面，繼續投資提高營運效率，然後繼續致力於智慧財產權和產品研發。馬丁，你可以走了。

Yes, one of the other things, as Efrain mentioned, those are the same things you'll see continuation of that and a little bit lower, but the product acceleration would be the other one that -- to the ones that Efrain mentioned. So lead generation, demand generation has been a big focus for us. A lot more leads coming in over the web. And I really think we're hitting our stride through some of the programs we put in place at the beginning of this fiscal year to drive more demand and then nurture those leads, because so many more are coming in that way and then handling them as well through internal sales. So we've really continued to invest there. Product acceleration, these were things that we were going to do. We accelerated, particularly, into this quarter, a lot of product around HR, what we call, our HR center and enhancing that with data analytics, Learning Management System to provide training for our employees and their clients and performance management among other things. So product acceleration, lead generation and operating efficiencies as well, using some of the work we've done and now chatbots and chat and other self-service capabilities that our clients were looking for.

是的，正如 Efrain 所提到的，其他一些事情，你會看到這些事情繼續發生，只是程度會略有降低，但產品加速是 Efrain 提到的另一件事。因此，線索開發和需求創造一直是我們的工作重點。透過網路獲得的銷售線索大幅增加。我真的認為，我們透過本財年初實施的一些旨在推動更多需求並培養這些潛在客戶的計劃，正在步入正軌，因為通過這種方式湧入了更多客戶，然後通過內部銷售來處理他們。所以我們一直在持續加大對該地區的投資。加速產品開發，這些都是我們計畫要做的事。尤其是在本季度，我們加快了與人力資源相關的產品開發，我們稱之為人力資源中心，並透過數據分析、學習管理系統等方式對其進行增強，為我們的員工及其客戶提供培訓，以及績效管理等。因此，我們利用之前所做的一些工作，以及客戶所尋求的聊天機器人、聊天和其他自助服務功能，實現了產品加速開發、潛在客戶開發和營運效率的提升。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的傑森庫柏伯格。

This is actually Amit Singh for Jason. You guys just went through your -- the key selling season. So what were the key takeaways from there? Anything that stood out as being different this year versus, let's say, past couple of years in terms of competition, pricing, et cetera?

這其實是阿米特辛格為傑森所作。你們剛剛經歷了銷售旺季。那麼，從中可以得出哪些主要結論呢？與過去幾年相比，今年在競爭、定價等方面有哪些顯著的差異？

Yes, I think the competitive environment is about the same. We didn't see a big change there. We feel -- year-to-date, we're really seeing the best-selling seasons selling, frankly, in par growth that we've had in a few years. So that was -- that continued. I think it was moderated a little bit in January -- in the December, January kind of timeframe, with -- between the government shutdown, the market kind of dropping and then rebounding and et cetera. So we saw a little moderation there, but really when you look at the selling season overall for a par growth, it's been -- we don't really give the number, but it's the best we've seen in 3 years, and certainly, year-to-date it's the same thing. So we're feeling great momentum, particularly, on the HR Solutions and PEO side of the business, insurances, health insurance and our inside sales piece as well.

是的，我認為競爭環境基本上相同。我們沒有看到那裡發生太大變化。我們感覺到——就今年迄今為止而言，我們確實看到了最暢銷的幾季的銷售情況，坦白說，其增長速度達到了近幾年來的最高水平。事情就是這樣——事情還在繼續。我認為在 1 月——大概在 12 月到 1 月這段時間——由於政府停擺、市場下跌然後反彈等等原因，情況有所緩和。所以我們看到這方面略有緩和，但實際上，如果你從整個銷售季的均價增長來看，情況是——我們沒有給出具體數字，但這是我們3年來看到的最好的，當然，今年到目前為止也是如此。因此，我們感受到了強勁的發展勢頭，尤其是在人力資源解決方案和 PEO 業務方面，以及保險、健康保險和內部銷售方面。

Okay. And then just expanding on that competitive dynamics into your PEO market, and especially, as we look at your fiscal '20 guidance versus '19, there has been some strong growth for a while there, but is it now getting noticeably more crowded?

好的。然後，我們進一步探討貴公司在 PEO 市場中的競爭動態，特別是當我們比較貴公司 2020 財年與 2019 財年的業績指引時，雖然貴公司 2020 財年的成長勢頭強勁，但現在市場是否明顯變得更加擁擠了呢？

Well, I -- actually I think, we're building even more strength with adding Oasis and now serving through the various, not just PEO, but our other HR outsourcing solutions of 1.4 million worksite employees. We've built a real strength, and we expect to capitalize on that with carrier relations, the insurance carrier relations expanding into other states and selling our products into the Oasis base as well. So as Efrain said, I think, if you look at the whole PEO and insurance segment, it's moderated a bit, but a lot of that coming from the insurance side of it and particularly, workers' comp, which, I think, cycles, working in a down-rate environment, which has actually picked up pretty quickly. And so once those state funds lower their insurance rates and the impact on the overall workers' comp rates have come down, that's really accelerated in the last couple of months. And that's going to put some moderation on the PEO and insurance line. But the PEO itself, we expect still to be very strong and particularly with the recent acquisition with Oasis, of course, and HROI as well. We feel very good about the leadership teams. They are the integration that's already underway.

實際上，我認為，透過收購 Oasis，我們進一步增強了實力，現在我們不僅透過 PEO，還透過其他人力資源外包解決方案為 140 萬名工作場所員工提供服務。我們已經建立了真正的實力，我們希望利用這種實力與保險公司建立關係，將保險公司關係擴展到其他州，並將我們的產品銷售給 Oasis 的客戶群。正如 Efrain 所說，我認為，如果你縱觀整個 PEO 和保險領域，它有所緩和，但這很大程度上來自保險方面，特別是工傷賠償，我認為工傷賠償是有周期性的，在利率下行的環境下工作，實際上已經迅速回升。因此，一旦這些州政府資金降低了保險費率，對整體工傷賠償費率的影響就下降了，這種情況在過去幾個月確實加速了。這將對 PEO 和保險業務起到一定的限制。但我們預期 PEO 本身仍將非常強大，尤其是在最近收購 Oasis 之後，當然還有 HROI。我們對領導團隊非常滿意。它們是已經在進行的整合。

Your next question comes from the line of James Schneider of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的詹姆斯·施耐德。

I was wondering if you could maybe go a little bit further on the selling season commentary you had a minute ago, Marty. Just given what you've seen from Oasis thus far, what's been the reaction from clients with respect to the addition of that to your product portfolio? And I guess, more broadly speaking, heading into fiscal '20, do you feel kind of incrementally better or worse about the growth in the kind of the core payroll franchise, revenue growth, heading into next year?

馬蒂，我想問你能否再詳細談談你剛才對銷售季的評論。就您目前對 Oasis 的了解，客戶對將 Oasis 添加到您的產品組合中有何反應？更廣泛地說，展望 2020 財年，您對核心薪資業務的收入成長前景，感覺是略有好轉還是惡化？

Yes, I think, starting with the PEO, I think we've gotten good positive feedback from clients. I think Oasis already had a strong feeling from their clients and the leadership, Mark Perlberg, who has been running Oasis and is leading our PEO as we combine it. We're selling -- we're really designing a great balance of selling into new clients and selling into the base as well. Of course, we have a top 20 insurance agency that now Oasis can use the strength of that. So where insurance is not a good fit on the PEO model, you can now add Oasis clients as -- in new sales, like we've done, can now go to the insurance agency to be able to get insurance. So we're adding some strength there. Of course, they had different carriers, relationship levels than we did, and so we're expanding into new states. So I think the reaction has been good. The opportunity is great. And I think the integration is going very well from that standpoint. On the core payroll side, I think that competition has continued to be about the same. It's competitive. The pricing though hasn't changed a lot. I think we still have some pricing power there. Would always like to see that growth a little stronger, but that's also the way we're leading our sales now. We're leading much more with HR overall. So we're selling more bundles, we're selling more into the PEO and HR outsourcing. And you're not getting quite as much of the demand for payroll only as -- and that's exactly how we expected it. So I think you're seeing price and level of competition the same there. It's okay. It's not as strong as we'd like, but I think it's moving exactly the way we thought toward more HR. Now on the SurePayroll side, for example, I mentioned that we just introduced an e-commerce option, we're seeing that, that is helping not only accept more leads but gain more clients that way. It's early in the process. But what you're finding is, if a client comes in and can complete the entire transaction on their own or get help from our internal sales teams if they need it and kind of complete the whole thing in an e-commerce platform, that's pretty strong in -- as far as capturing the client when they're looking, instead of getting a lead and then trying to reach the client, who may have decided to go to someone else because they couldn't talk to someone or complete the transaction. So I'm thinking we're seeing some positive growth there, and we're -- and they're doing, and we are seeing some strong growth on the low end because of that.

是的，我認為，從 PEO 開始，我們已經從客戶那裡得到了很好的正面回饋。我認為 Oasis 已經從他們的客戶和領導層（Mark Perlberg，他一直經營 Oasis，並且在我們合併過程中領導我們的 PEO）那裡獲得了強烈的感受。我們正在努力實現銷售的平衡——我們真正做到了既要開拓新客戶，又要維護現有客戶群。當然，我們擁有一家排名前 20 的保險代理公司，現在 Oasis 可以利用這家公司的優勢。因此，如果保險不適合 PEO 模式，您現在可以添加 Oasis 客戶——就像我們所做的那樣，在新銷售中，現在可以去保險代理機構購買保險。所以我們正在加強這方面的實力。當然，他們的運營商和關係層級與我們不同，所以我們正在向新的州擴張。所以我覺得反應不錯。這是一個絕佳的機會。我認為從這個角度來看，整合工作進展得非常順利。在核心薪資方面，我認為競爭格局基本上保持不變。競爭很激烈。不過價格變化不大。我認為我們仍然擁有一定的定價權。當然，我們希望看到成長勢頭更強勁一些，但這也是我們目前引領銷售的方式。我們在人力資源方面投入了更多精力。所以，我們賣出了更多捆綁套餐，我們向 PEO 和人力資源外包領域銷售了更多產品。而且，你並沒有像預期的那樣獲得大量的薪資服務——這正是我們所預料的。所以我覺得你們那裡的價格和競爭程度是一樣的。沒關係。雖然它沒有我們想像的那麼強勁，但我認為它的發展方向正是我們預想的，那就是更重視人力資源。例如，在 SurePayroll 這邊，我提到我們剛剛推出了電子商務選項，我們看到，這不僅有助於接受更多潛在客戶，而且還有助於透過這種方式獲得更多客戶。現在還處於早期階段。但你會發現，如果客戶能夠自行完成整個交易，或者在需要時獲得我們內部銷售團隊的幫助，並在電子商務平台上完成所有操作，那麼在客戶尋找產品或服務時，我們就能有效地抓住他們，而不是先獲得銷售線索，然後再試圖聯繫客戶，而客戶可能因為無法與人溝通或完成交易而決定選擇其他商家。所以我認為我們看到了一些積極的成長，而且他們也確實在這樣做，因此我們看到低端市場出現了一些強勁的成長。

That's helpful. And then maybe relative to the margin outlook you're providing for fiscal '20. It looks like on an apples-to-apples basis, you're calling for margin expansion of a little bit over 50 bps, if I'm not mistaken. So I guess, could you maybe just kind of clarify relative to the reinvestments you've been making, do you feel like you have all the investment you need on the product side at this point to the extent that you're going to get incremental leverage off of that investment from here on out? And then maybe, Efrain, you can just clarify what the expected operating margin drag from Oasis will be for fiscal '20, roughly speaking.

那很有幫助。然後，或許也要參考您提供的 2020 財年利潤率展望。如果我沒理解錯的話，在同等條件下，您要求的利潤率擴張幅度略高於 50 個基點。所以我想問的是，關於您一直在進行的再投資，您能否澄清一下，您目前在產品方面是否擁有所需的所有投資，以至於您從現在開始能夠從這些投資中獲得增量槓桿效應？然後，Efrain，或許你可以大致說明一下，Oasis 在 2020 財年預計會造成多少營業利潤率下滑。

Okay, so Jim, let me -- those are all interrelated. So you carefully parse what we said as usual. We said that this year's guidance, excluding Oasis, operating margins would be approximately 37%. And then the preliminary framework we're saying is between 37% to 38%. That would imply exactly what you would say. I would caveat one thing, Jim, that obviously, we could end up a little bit stronger than 37%, in which case the leverage will be a little bit less. But the premise to your question is valid. So what's happening is that, when we invested in year 1, you don't see the benefits or the results of that investment in the -- in year 1, you get into year 2, you're continuing to invest, and you start to now get benefits from investments made in year 1. That's why I carefully said, the net spend that we have relative to the investments we made after tax reform goes down, so you're seeing that in the margin. And the second thing before I turn it over to Marty, talk a little bit more about that, is to say that, when we think about what that spending has done and will do for us, it becomes a down payment for roadmap to the future where additional opportunities for leverage exist. Marty mentioned the investments we've made in things like that chatbots using AI NLP, machine learning, and not to be overlooked are things like the e-commerce developments we put into SurePayroll. And again, we are the first publicly traded company that has created that platform. So all of those now become things that we can leverage in the business to drive further efficiencies and in some cases, in -- also in additional sales. So we're getting benefits. It's opening up other pathways that we hadn't considered. And that will be a benefit to us in the future.

好的，吉姆，讓我來解釋一下——這些都是相互關聯的。所以你像往常一樣仔細分析我們說的話。我們曾表示，今年的業績預期（不包括 Oasis）營業利益率約為 37%。然後，我們所說的初步框架是 37% 到 38%。那意思就跟你想說的完全一樣。吉姆，我得補充一點，很顯然，我們最終的持股比例可能會略高於 37%，在這種情況下，槓桿作用就會略小一些。但你問題的前提是正確的。所以現在的情況是，當我們在第一年進行投資時，你不會在第一年就看到投資的收益或成果——到了第二年，你繼續投資，然後你才會開始從第一年的投資中獲益。這就是為什麼我特意強調，稅改後我們相對於投資的淨支出下降了，所以你會在邊際效益中看到這一點。在我把麥克風交給馬蒂之前，我想再多談談這方面，第二點是，當我們思考這筆支出已經並將繼續為我們帶來什麼時，它就成了未來發展路線圖的首付款，未來會有更多利用這些機會的機會。Marty提到了我們在諸如使用人工智慧、自然語言處理、機器學習的聊天機器人等領域進行的投資，還有不容忽視的，我們在SurePayroll中投入的電子商務開發。再次強調，我們是第一家創建該平台的上市公司。因此，所有這些現在都成為了我們可以在業務中利用的資源，以進一步提高效率，在某些情況下，還可以帶來額外的銷售額。所以我們得到了好處。它開闢了我們之前沒有考慮過的其他途徑。這將對我們未來有利。

Yes, I think -- so I think Efrain's pretty much covered. The investments we made kind of from the tax reform that we talked about, starting really last year, was that, that would do that from a product standpoint, we accelerated the product. In fact, a lot of that rolled out in the first 2 quarters and then in this quarter. From an HR center perspective, we're very happy with that, that we were able to accelerate that. And then on the efficiencies, a lot of it has also been done to create those operating efficiencies. And the chatbot, for example, someone who wants to chat or have a quick answer to a question, 40% -- 45%, now I think this last month, are already being answered only by the chatbot. So it doesn't have to go to a live person to handle through chat or live talk. And that is creating some nice efficiencies, and we're able to increase the productivity of our payroll specialist and across the board actually. So -- where actually the chatbot stuff and the work that's automated response is going much faster. And I said, given the millions of clients and employees -- client employees that we have using this, the machine learning is really creating things very quickly. Last month, we had -- 1.5 month ago, we had about 45 questions answered by the chatbot, different questions that it would expect. Now it's over 100 because of the machine learning piece of that. So...

是的，我想——所以我覺得埃弗雷恩的情況基本上已經解決了。我們從去年開始就一直在討論的稅收改革，透過投資實現了這一點，從產品角度來看，我們加快了產品的研發速度。事實上，許多措施都在前兩個季度以及本季陸續推出。從人力資源中心的角度來看，我們對此感到非常滿意，因為我們能夠加快這一進程。此外，在效率方面，也做了很多工作來提高營運效率。例如，聊天機器人可以幫助那些想要聊天或快速獲得問題答案的人，上個月有 40% 到 45% 的人只透過聊天機器人來回答問題。因此，無需透過聊天或線上通話等方式轉接給真人處理。這樣一來，效率就得到了顯著提高，我們能夠提高薪資專員的生產力，實際上，整個部門的生產力都得到了提升。所以——實際上，聊天機器人和自動回覆的工作進展得更快。我說，考慮到我們有數百萬客戶和員工（包括客戶員工）在使用這項技術，機器學習確實能夠非常快速地創造事物。上個月，也就是一個半月前，我們的聊天機器人回答了大約 45 個問題，這些問題與它預期會遇到的問題有所不同。現在這個數字已經超過 100 了，因為其中加入了機器學習功能。所以...

And if I can build on that, it's -- part of it's a productivity player, but another part is serving the client better. And so at the end of the day, when you combine that technology with our world-class service capability, you got a pretty powerful service differentiator. So we're pretty excited about where we're at.

如果我能夠以此為基礎，一部分是為了提高生產力，另一部分則是為了更好地服務客戶。因此，歸根結底，當你將這項技術與我們世界一流的服務能力結合時，你就擁有了非常強大的服務差異化優勢。所以我們對目前的狀況感到非常興奮。

Great. And can you just quickly clarify the drag from Oasis expansion in fiscal '20 roughly?

偉大的。能否簡單說明一下 Oasis 擴張在 2020 財年造成的拖累情況？

Yes, Jim, so if you look at the page where I put the -- or what we put on the IR presentation there, what -- you can do the calculations to get there. You'll see what the impact is. I would say this, the drag year-over-year is, from an EBITDA perspective is modest. And I would say, also from an operating margin perspective, when you go through the calculations, you can call me later on that to make sure you got it, it's not dramatic.

是的，吉姆，所以如果你看一下我放那一頁——或者說我們在投資者關係演示文稿上放的那一頁——你就可以進行計算得出結果了。你會看到其影響。我認為，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，年減幅度並不大。而且，從營業利潤率的角度來看，當你進行計算之後，你可以稍後打電話給我確認你是否理解，這並不算什麼大問題。

Your next question comes from the line of James Berkley of Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 James Berkley 的思路。

I guess, just to start, if you could just help us understand the $20 million range. Just what's keeping you from having a little more visibility, I guess, into the contribution from Oasis in the fourth quarter? And then some thoughts on cost and revenue synergies over time? And any signs you may be able to accelerate the upselling part of your payroll base, just given the acquisition of Oasis? And how much will you reinvest and whatnot into the sales force?

我想，首先，如果您能幫我們理解一下 2000 萬美元這個數字範圍就太好了。我想，究竟是什麼原因導致您無法更清楚地了解 Oasis 在第四季的貢獻呢？那麼，您對成本和收入方面的綜效有何看法？鑑於您收購了 Oasis，是否有任何跡象表明您能夠加快現有員工隊伍的追加銷售成長？那麼，你們會投入多少資金用於銷售團隊的再投資等等？

So if you look at it, you have line of sight to what to was in Q3. I've given you a number that's pretty clear. I think it can get to where we think we're going to land. So I'm reticent to keep changing guidance because it -- we're falling within the range. And I think at this point, I called out what I thought the contribution for the first -- for the back half of the year is going to be. If you look in the presentation, we've detailed what Oasis was for the quarter, about $70 million. I've detailed what it is for Q4. I think we've given a pretty clear road map in terms of what we think it will be for the balance of the year.

所以如果你仔細觀察，就能清楚看到第三季的情況。我已經給了你一個非常明確的數字。我認為它能到達我們預想的目的地。所以我不太願意不斷改變指導方針，因為我們目前的情況仍在範圍內。我認為，在這一點上，我已經指出了我認為今年上半年——也就是下半年——將會做出的貢獻。如果你查看演示文稿，我們會詳細介紹 Oasis 本季的業績，約 7000 萬美元。我已經詳細說明了第四季度的具體情況。我認為我們已經給出了一個相當清晰的路線圖，闡述了我們對今年剩餘時間的設想。

Perfect. Yes, I understood that you just didn't want to change it there. Just commenting on the cost and revenue synergies over time, if you don't mind?

完美的。是的，我明白你只是不想在那裡更改它。如果不介意的話，我想談談成本和收入方面隨時間推移產生的協同效應？

Yes. I think from a cost standpoint, I think, a lot of it we've actually already started. There was some synergies of duplication of people. Some of that's already been done. And I think we're pretty much far down on the road on that one. We also are looking at, obviously, from a cost standpoint, what can we do with the carriers to get better cost and plans is in place. And we'll be working those through. It's a little bit early on that one, but we're working through that right now. Organization is in place, and the product strategy is working through right now. I don't see a lot of needs of technology investment that needs to be done there right now. So that should be pretty solid. Sales team is pretty clear on who's got what already, that's in place. And I think, so the cost synergies will, again, be people but pretty much done; insurance carriers and rates there to lower our cost; efficiency and, frankly, handling; and I guess, I'd say, on the revenue side, selling more obviously and being able to capture some retirement products in there and more insurance. To the degree we couldn't underwrite them, we drive them to our insurance agency like we do for our PEO. That's something that Oasis did not have before either and now will be able to use. So we haven't laid out all the quantification, I think, in the guidance you see kind of overall where we think it's going to be. And frankly, the short-term impact is pretty moderate to the EPS. So we feel pretty good about the margins and everything there.

是的。我認為從成本角度來看，很多事情我們其實已經開始了。人員重複配置產生了一些協同效應。有些工作已經完成了。我認為我們在這方面已經取得了相當大的進展。顯然，我們也在從成本角度考慮，我們可以與營運商合作，以降低成本，相關計劃已經制定。我們會逐一解決這些問題。現在討論這個問題還為時過早，但我們正在努力解決。組織架構已經到位，產品策略目前正在實施中。我認為目前那裡並沒有什麼技術投資的需求。所以這應該相當可靠。銷售團隊對每個人的職責分配非常清楚，一切都已安排妥當。我認為，成本協同效應將再次體現在人員方面，但基本上已經完成；保險公司和費率方面，以降低我們的成本；效率，坦率地說，還有處理方面；我想，在收入方面，顯然是銷售更多產品，並能夠將一些退休產品和更多保險產品納入其中。如果我們不能承保這些風險，我們會像對待我們的 PEO 一樣，將它們送到我們的保險代理機構。這是 Oasis 之前所不具備的，現在他們可以使用了。所以，我認為，我們還沒有列出所有的量化數據，但在指導意見中，你只能看到我們認為它最終會達到的總體方向。坦白說，短期內對每股盈餘的影響相當溫和。所以我們對利潤率和其他方面都感覺相當不錯。

Okay. And then just more generally, real quick, I mean, I know your focus is obviously shifting towards PEO, and it's becoming increasingly important given the ACA and the 50-employee insurance mandate, et cetera. Just could you give any numbers or just an idea just on how much white space you see out there? And what percent of the addressable market is unpenetrated right now? And just kind of talk to your longer-term strategy in the space going forward, whether it's around M&A or organic growth, et cetera?

好的。然後更一般地說，我知道你們的關注點顯然正在轉向 PEO，而且鑑於 ACA 和 50 名員工的保險強制令等等，PEO 變得越來越重要。您能否提供一些數字或大致的概念，並說說您認為周圍有多少空白區域？目前潛在市場中尚未開發的市佔比是多少？請談談您未來在該領域的長期策略，無論是併購還是內生成長等等？

Well, yes, I think it's going to be both. I mean, primarily organic growth, but we'll continue to look for opportunities like Oasis and other PEOs. And it really it looks like more of a HR outsourcing opportunity because what's changed is, a few years ago, the average client size that needed HR, needed retirement and those things was, I would say, 25, 30 employees plus. That has come down pretty dramatically. As you've seen the states increased their regulations, Fed may have come down a bit, but the states have really increased the enforcement and the regulations that they have on things like immigration and whether your workers are legit or not, the retirement plans -- the need for retirement plans, all that has been pushed up and a lot of requirements, and the enforcement has picked up, where they're looking for revenue from fees and enforcements. So the need for HR has really grown. So I think, look, there's a lot of white space there. There's a lot of opportunity. And it's growing as well. And so you have to be someone, who through your technology and your service, can give that kind of complete set. So not only are you helping on a tough -- on a low unemployment market, the first thing you hear constantly in our surveys is I need help recruiting and retaining employees because it's so tough out there to get them. So you have to offer benefits of a large company, whether you're a small or mid. You have to offer benefits. You have to offer mobility options, so people can do things. 70% of our clients' employees expect that they should be able to do everything on their phone, they don't want to talk anyone in HR, they don't want to go online, they want every -- certainly, not on paper, they want to do everything mobile. And that's all the products that we've been introducing and linking together for a total HR experience. So that helps you bring in employees, and it helps you retain and develop your employees, so that they stay. And that's exactly what we're responding to. Like retirement, signing up retirement used to be a heavy paper-intensive process for your employees who want a retirement plan, you push it out there, it's all paper, it's tough to do. You now can have an employee set up their retirement in 4 clicks on a mobile app -- on our mobile app. So you're making the small- and midsized business more competitive and helping them continue to retain those employees as well.

嗯，是的，我認為兩者都是。我的意思是，主要還是依靠自身成長，但我們也會繼續尋找像 Oasis 和其他 PEO 這樣的機會。這看起來更像是人力資源外包的機會，因為幾年前，需要人力資源服務、需要退休規劃等服務的客戶平均規模是 25 到 30 名員工以上。這個數字已經大幅下降了。正如你所看到的，各州加強了監管，美聯儲可能有所放鬆，但各州確實加強了執法力度，並加強了對移民、工人是否合法、退休計劃（退休計劃的必要性）等方面的監管，所有這些都被提上日程，提出了許多要求，執法力度也加大了，他們希望通過收費和執法來增加收入。因此，對人力資源的需求確實增加了。所以我覺得，你看，那裡有很多留白。這裡有很多機會。而且它還在不斷發展壯大。所以你必須成為能夠透過你的技術和服務提供這種完整解決方案的人。所以，你不僅在幫助一個艱難的——在低失業率的市場中，你在我們的調查中不斷聽到的第一件事就是我需要幫助來招募和留住員工，因為現在招人太難了。所以，無論你是小公司還是中型公司，都必須提供大公司的福利。你必須提供福利。你必須提供出行選擇，這樣人們才能做事。70% 的客戶員工希望他們能夠用手機完成所有事情，他們不想和人力資源部的任何人交談，他們不想上網，他們希望所有事情——當然，不是用紙質文件，他們希望所有事情都能在行動裝置上完成。以上就是我們為了打造完整的人力資源體驗而推出和整合的所有產品。這樣既能幫助你招到員工，也能幫助你留住和培養員工，讓他們留下來。而這正是我們正在回應的。就像退休一樣，以前員工想要參加退休計劃，辦理退休手續是一個繁瑣且耗費大量紙質文件的過程，你把它推出去，全是紙質文件，做起來很困難。現在，您只需在我們的行動應用程式上點擊 4 次，即可讓員工設定退休計畫。這樣一來，你就提升了中小企業的競爭力，也幫助他們留住了員工。

The other thing, James, I'd say is, and maybe you'll publish some data on this, but if you look at the 20-and-above space and the amount of worksite employees, which is probably the best way to dimension the opportunity, you're in the multiple tens of million of worksite employees. If you take the top 4 PEOs, you barely get to 2 million worksite employees. Now there are more worksite employees serviced by smaller PEOs. But when you compare that to the amount of worksite employees that exist in 20 and above, which is we're in now, and may in the future be 10 and above, where the sweet spot of PEO goes, you have a significant amount of white space. And the penetration rate is in the low single -- is in the single digits, mid- to low single digits.

詹姆斯，我想說的另一點是，也許你會公佈一些相關數據，但如果你看看 20 歲以上人群以及工作場所員工的數量（這可能是衡量機會的最佳方式），你會發現工作場所員工人數高達數千萬。如果把排名前 4 的 PEO 公司都算上，也勉強達到 200 萬個工作場所員工。現在，越來越多的工地員工由規模較小的專業雇主組織 (PEO) 提供服務。但是，如果將這種情況與目前 20 人及以上規模的工作場所員工數量（我們現在就處於這個規模，未來可能會是 10 人及以上，而 PEO 的最佳目標群體正是這個規模）進行比較，就會發現存在著相當大的空白市場。滲透率處於個位數低位，或者說個位數中低位。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I just wanted to continue the discussion on the PEO space. Are you going to market differently with your Oasis product versus your legacy Paychex product?

我只是想繼續討論PEO（專業雇主組織）領域。你們打算用不同的方式推廣 Oasis 產品和你們原有的 Paychex 產品嗎？

I would say, in the short term, probably a little bit differently just because of the brand and so forth, and we're working through that now. But the packages -- what you would say is, Oasis has gone more into, obviously, brand-new clients that have not been on a PEO or any other service. With our base, we're working through the client base as well. So we have a team that sells into the client base, who has that need and can graduate, I guess, I'd say, to a PEO. And Oasis and some of the -- the rest of the team is selling brand-new clients to the PEO or HR concepts. So a little bit different there. We'll be fixing the brand as we work through what's the best way to approach that. But generally, they're both selling, "Hey, this is an HR support package that is there. Whether you take the insurance through us or whether we underwrite it through the agency, you have full retirement and payroll and HR administration packages." And so I would say, at a high level, it's certainly is being marketed the same way because that's the need of the client that we see out there.

短期內，情況可能會略有不同，這主要是因為品牌等因素，我們現在正在努力解決這個問題。但是就套餐而言——可以說，Oasis 顯然更專注於那些之前沒有使用過 PEO 或任何其他服務的新客戶。憑藉我們現有的基礎，我們也努力拓展客戶群。所以我們有一支團隊負責向有這種需求的客戶群銷售產品，我想，他們可以逐步過渡到 PEO（專業雇主組織）。Oasis 和團隊中的其他一些成員正在向 PEO 或人力資源概念推銷全新的客戶。所以那裡的情況有點不同。我們將一邊研究最佳的修復方案，一邊著手修復品牌。但總的來說，他們都在推銷，“嘿，這是一個現成的人力資源支持方案。”無論您是透過我們購買保險，還是透過代理商承保，您都將獲得完整的退休、薪資和人力資源管理服務。 ” 因此，我認為，從總體上看，它們的營銷方式肯定是一樣的，因為這是我們看到的客戶需求。

Okay. I know during the last recession, this was a relatively small piece of the business. I'm not even sure if Oasis was even around then. But can you give us your expectations of what you think might happen to this business, if God forbid, we go into any type of downturn in the U.S.?

好的。我知道在上一次經濟衰退期間，這只是公司業務中相對較小的一部分。我什至不確定當時綠洲樂團是否已經存在。但是，如果美國經濟不幸陷入任何形式的衰退，您認為貴公司可能會面臨怎樣的處境？

Well, I think, from an HR standpoint, sometimes in a recession, you need HR support more than ever. Certainly, on the small business side, that's only payroll. For example, you have small businesses, more of them go out of business, and few of them start up. So you always have some hits there. But I think by expanding and really becoming more -- much more of an HR company and having retirement offerings, insurance offerings and a much more complete package, that makes us much more resistant to a downturn in the economy. And that's the way we looked at it for the last few years as we've positioned the company to be much more of an HR outsourcing company than just payroll. That's because that is actually more in need in those difficult times. Now you need much more HR decisions to say, "Hey, what do I do with pay increases? What do I do with insurance offerings? How do I cut costs but keep my people?" That's when you need the personalized HR support that we give with over 500 HR generalists. At the same time, the technology, frankly, will make you more efficient as our clients are. Our clients are becoming much more efficient because of our mobile app that they use now, that they don't -- if a client employee now needs to change their address in the system, in the old days, they'd go to their HR person or their business owner, they'd have to call us, they would talk to us, they would change it. They don't do any of that now. Now they say to the employee, you can change it yourself. You can go on your mobile app and do everything basically. So all those things, the technology changes, the HR focus, the total package, that makes us really more resistant and stronger in a recession-type era.

嗯，我認為，從人力資源的角度來看，在經濟衰退時期，你比以往任何時候都更需要人力資源的支持。當然，對小企業來說，那隻是指薪資支出。例如，小型企業中，倒閉的較多，而新開的卻很少。所以你總是會有一些熱門歌曲。但我認為，透過擴張，真正成為更像人力資源公司的企業，提供退休金、保險和更全面的福利待遇，這將使我們更能抵禦經濟衰退的影響。過去幾年，我們一直這樣看待這個問題，並將公司定位為一家人力資源外包公司，而不僅僅是一家薪資管理公司。那是因為在那些困難時期，這方面的需求其實更大。現在，你需要做出更多的人力資源決策，例如“嘿，我該如何處理加薪問題？”我該如何處理保險產品？「如何削減成本又留住員工？」這時您就需要我們擁有500多位名人力資源通才提供的個人化人力資源支援了。同時，坦白說，這項技術將使您和我們的客戶一樣有效率。由於客戶現在使用我們的行動應用程序，他們的效率大大提高。以前，如果客戶員工需要更改系統中的地址，他們會去找人力資源部門或企業主，或打電話給我們，和我們溝通，然後由我們來更改。他們現在都不做這些事了。現在他們對員工說，你可以自己改。基本上所有事情都可以透過手機應用程式完成。因此，所有這些因素，包括技術變革、人力資源重點、整體方案，都使我們在經濟衰退時期更具抵抗力和實力。

So just to build on what Marty said, if you look at from a product standpoint, obviously, that's sticky. From a client size standpoint, you have more resilience because clients typically are larger in a PEO. So in our payroll, if you're payroll only, you tend to be smaller. PEO clients are in a higher-sized bucket, which gives them a little bit more ability to withstand a downturn in the economy.

所以，正如馬蒂所說，從產品角度來看，顯然，這很有黏性。從客戶規模的角度來看，PEO 的客戶通常規模較大，因此您擁有更大的適應力。所以，在我們的薪資體系中，如果你只負責薪資發放，你的規模往往會比較小。PEO客戶屬於規模較大的群體，這使他們更有能力抵禦經濟衰退的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

你的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Lisa Ellis。

My first question is related to the e-commerce capability describing for SurePayroll. Can you just talk a little bit more broadly, is there a big like digital marketing push accompanying this? So the concept being to get the small business owner over the weekend or whatever sort of Google searching and end up finding Paychex and SurePayroll and being able to onboard entirely independently. Is that sort of -- can you just give a little bit more color around like where this is headed? Yes.

我的第一個問題與 SurePayroll 的電子商務功能描述有關。您能否更廣泛地談談，是否有大規模的數位行銷推廣活動與之配對？所以，我們的想法是讓小型企業主利用周末或其他時間透過Google搜尋找到 Paychex 和 SurePayroll，然後完全獨立地完成註冊。是不是──你能再詳細說說這件事的走向嗎？是的。

Yes, it is. It's actually a continuation of -- what we saw was, with lead generation, we're doing a much stronger job with getting the leads in and getting -- typically, it's more of a form fill out, right? And then we get back to them, where the client contact is somehow through the lead and says, get back to me. Well, what -- the hardest thing to do is get back to a client today, get anyone to answer the phone. So what we found with e-commerce is not only is it responsive to a client the way they want to set themselves up, when they want to do it, weekend, nights or whatever, but also that you've captured that lead because now you don't have to get back and the client will start themselves. They'll compare, they'll see the price, they'll see the product, they decide to buy, they're in the mix. And even if they get halfway into it and need help, that's fine. We have someone ready at all times to be able to just go to someone either through a chat or a direct line and talk to them to help them through the process. But you've captured them now as opposed to trying to reach back to them. And that has been one of the strongest findings through the e-commerce is, lead generation is great, but closing that lead at the time that the prospect wants to close it is huge. So that's been the biggest benefit of this thing.

是的。實際上，這是先前情況的延續——我們看到，在潛在客戶開發方面，我們做得更好，能夠更有效地獲取潛在客戶——通常情況下，這更多的是透過填寫表格來實現的，對吧？然後我們再聯絡他們，客戶聯絡人是透過銷售線索聯絡我們的，然後說，請回覆我。嗯，最難的事莫過於今天回覆客戶，讓別人接電話。我們發現，電子商務不僅可以回應客戶的需求，讓他們按照自己的意願進行設置，無論是在週末、晚上還是其他任何時間，而且還能讓你抓住潛在客戶，因為現在你不需要再回頭跟進，客戶會自己開始。他們會進行比較，他們會看價格，他們會看產品，他們會決定購買，他們就參與其中了。即使他們做到一半需要幫助，那也沒關係。我們隨時都有人可以透過聊天或直接電話與客戶溝通，幫助他們完成整個流程。但你現在已經抓住了他們，而不是試圖重新聯繫他們。電子商務領域最有力的發現之一是，線索開發固然重要，但在潛在客戶想要成交的時候促成交易才是關鍵。所以這就是這件事最大的優點。

And I'd say that it's not in the future. We launched in Q2, and it's up and running.

而且我認為，這不會發生在未來。我們在第二季推出了服務，目前一切運作正常。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Okay. And then on a related note around the investments around technology that you've been talking about, when they evolve -- are you -- do you have initiatives underway that are leveraging your underlying database of employment-related data, I mean, so you can feed back things like benchmarks or give guidance and advice? Yes? Okay.

好的。另外，關於您一直在談論的技術投資，當它們發展演變時——您是否——您是否正在進行一些項目，利用您現有的就業相關數據數據庫，以便您可以反饋基準數據或提供指導和建議？是的？好的。

Yes. That's already -- they have already been released. So -- and given the size of our client base and employees of our clients, that can give great data. So we give data, for example, on turnover. And there is -- obviously, it's at a gross basis kind of pulled together. But it can do it by size as well, size of clients or size of your business or -- and so forth. So yes, we're giving data analytics. Something that's been very important to our clients, to get data analytics. And most small to midsize businesses could never get at that data or ever pay for that data in the market that we can give them very quickly using our very large client base.

是的。它們已經被釋放了。所以——考慮到我們的客戶群和客戶員工的規模，這可以提供大量數據。因此，我們會提供一些數據，例如營業額數據。而且很明顯，它大致上是拼湊起來的。但它也可以按規模來劃分，例如客戶規模、企業規模等等。是的，我們提供數據分析服務。對我們的客戶來說，數據分析一直非常重要。而且大多數中小企業永遠無法獲得這些數據，也無法在市場上付費購買這些數據，而我們可以利用我們龐大的客戶群，非常迅速地向他們提供這些數據。

Okay, great. And then just last one, Marty. Can you just summarize -- you always give really good color around the indicator -- macroeconomic indicators you see in your business that give you a sense for the overall health of the economy. Can you just run through those, meaning employment growth, wage growth, the new business formation, et cetera?

好的，太好了。最後一位是馬蒂。您能否總結一下——您總是能很好地描述指標——您在業務中看到的、能讓您了解整體經濟健康狀況的宏觀經濟指標。能簡單介紹一下這些方面嗎？例如就業成長、薪資成長、新企業成立等等？

Yes. I think what we've seen in the small business indexes is really focused on 50 employees and below. And what we've seen is, obviously, job growth has kind of flattened out here the last few months. Most of that is because there aren't the people out there to hire. So we've seen -- we're still seeing job growth, but the change in job growth is -- it has come -- it has really flattened out to last year, down a little to flat. And we're seeing it kind of across all sectors. You are seeing wage growth probably in the 2.5% to 2.7% range, which has been good. It's coming up. And of course, those earning the least are getting the biggest increase. So they're seeing -- those earning minimum wage, et cetera, because of the minimum wage increases across the country are seeing 3.5% to 4% wage increase, sometimes a little bit more, where salaried or the higher-wage earners are seeing 2% or below 2% is what we're seeing, and that's kind of averaging out. Across all sectors and jobs, manufacturing kind of has been up and down but is down a bit now. Construction is still probably one of the better ones. Other services overall is the strongest, which is discretionary services. There are more part-time jobs. So again, you're seeing a little bit more growth there and a little bit more wage increases there because of the minimum wage changes. Overall, it feels steady, not necessarily heading -- it doesn't feel like it's heading into a recession. It's just job growth has kind of flattened out because it's tough to find people. What we are seeing also is -- hearing from our clients anecdotally that there is more of those on the fringe that may be high school graduates instead of college that they're bringing in and training more. So again, for our products, that's -- it's helpful because they're looking for more training, bring people on that they may not have hired before but trying to train them because it's so difficult to find people. And we actually have heard, on the negative side, probably some businesses are saying, "Hey, I'm not taking some work because I can't find enough people to do it." More in the trade and that kind of thing. And regionally, it's in the south that's still the strongest. Energy has picked back up, so Houston, Tex and Dallas look better. And of course, the Florida-Georgia, generally, that area is better for construction in both residential and commercial.

是的。我認為我們在小型企業指數中看到的主要是員工人數在 50 人及以下的企業。很明顯，我們看到的是，過去幾個月來，這裡的就業成長已經趨於平緩。大部分原因是市場上沒有足夠的人手可供僱用。所以我們看到——我們仍然看到就業成長，但就業成長的變化是——它已經——它真的已經趨於平緩，比去年略有下降。而且這種情況幾乎出現在所有行業。薪資成長率可能在 2.5% 到 2.7% 之間，這還不錯。馬上就到了。當然，收入最低的人獲得的漲幅最大。因此，由於全國各地最低工資的提高，那些領取最低工資的人，等等，工資增長了 3.5% 到 4%，有時甚至更多；而領固定工資或高收入者，工資增長只有 2% 或低於 2%，這就是我們看到的情況，平均下來就是這樣。在所有行業和職業中，製造業一直起伏不定，但現在略有下滑。建築業可能仍然是比較好的行業之一。其他服務整體表現最強，其中可選服務特別突出。兼職工作機會多了。所以，由於最低工資標準的變化，你會看到那裡的成長略有增加，薪資漲幅也略有提高。整體而言，感覺很穩定，沒有明顯的趨勢——感覺不像是走向衰退。只是因為招募困難，就業成長已經趨於平緩。我們也從客戶那裡了解到，他們正在引進和培訓更多邊緣群體，這些人可能是高中畢業生而不是大學畢業生。所以，對於我們的產品來說，這很有幫助，因為他們正在尋求更多的培訓，招收以前可能沒有僱用過的人，並試圖培訓他們，因為找到合適的人太難了。我們也確實聽到了一些負面的消息，一些企業可能表示：「嘿，我不接某些活了，因為我找不到足夠的人來做。」 這種情況在貿易行業等等領域比較常見。從區域上看，南部地區仍然是最強大的。能源市場已經復甦，所以休士頓、德州和達拉斯的情況看起來好多了。當然，總的來說，佛羅裡達州和喬治亞州一帶更適合住宅和商業建築的建設。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim McHugh of William Blair & Company.

你的下一個問題來自 William Blair & Company 的 Tim McHugh。

I just want to follow up on the workers comp part of the insurance. How big is that versus kind of health insurance in terms of the importance for your insurance business? And can you elaborate a little bit more on the issue? Is it just a down pricing market? Or is there, there are more happening there, I guess?

我只是想跟進一下工傷賠償保險的相關事宜。與健康保險相比，這種保險對您的保險業務的重要性有多大？您能否就這個問題再詳細闡述？這只是價格下跌的市場嗎？或者，我猜那裡還有更多的事情正在發生？

So 2 parts, Tim, and I want to make sure that it's clear, when we say PEO and insurance and we call out softness in workers comp, we're calling out, specifically, the workers comp revenue in our insurance agency. We're not specifically referring to PEO workers comp, which is a separate conversation. That really is around the -- that's a separate discussion. So roughly half of our insurance business is workers comp premiums. And if you look at where we are this year and you look at PEO and insurance, insurance is about 30% of that number, a little bit less than that. It will go to 20% in terms of composition of that revenue. When you look at then insurance and disaggregate that part, about half workers comp, half health and benefits. Health and benefits is doing fine, upper single-digit growth and growing reasonably. And workers comp is where we've seen softness really starting a couple of quarters-or-so ago and accelerating. And the workers comp market goes through cycles. So if we had this discussion a couple of years ago, we would have said, "Hey, workers comp is doing great. Premiums are up, and we're getting our share." Now we're getting our share, but the market is soft. And when it turns, who knows? But it goes through cycles, and we're going through a bit of a softening cycle now.

所以，提姆，我想說兩點，我想確保這一點很清楚，當我們說 PEO 和保險，並指出工傷賠償方面的不足時，我們具體指的是我們保險代理機構的工傷賠償收入。我們這裡指的並非 PEO 員工賠償，那是另一個話題。那確實是另一個話題了。因此，我們保險業務中約有一半是工傷賠償保險費。如果你看看我們今年的情況，再看看 PEO 和保險，保險大約佔這個數字的 30%，甚至更少。就該收入組成而言，它將占到 20%。當你查看保險並細分這部分時，大約一半是工傷賠償，一半是健康和福利。健康福利方面表現良好，實現了接近兩位數的成長，成長勢頭穩健。工傷賠償方面的疲軟局面，大約從幾個季度前開始，愈演愈烈。工傷賠償市場會經歷週期性波動。所以，如果我們幾年前進行這樣的討論，我們會說：“嘿，工傷賠償制度做得很好。”保費上漲了，我們也拿到了應得的份額。現在我們拿到了應得的份額，但市場疲軟。誰知道什麼時候會發生轉變呢？但經濟情勢總是有週期的，我們現在正處於一個相對疲軟的週期。

Okay. Fair enough. And can I follow up on the comment on the selling season? I guess, it sounded like -- obviously, it's good overall result, but it sounded much more about selling the broader bundle of services than necessary -- necessarily client growth and, in particular, I guess, your legacy payroll businesses. Is that accurate, I guess? And can you elaborate on what you're seeing in terms of ability to grow the client base for that core kind of payroll suite of services?

好的。很公平。我可以就銷售旺季發表一下看法嗎？我想，聽起來像是——顯然，整體結果不錯，但聽起來更像是在推銷更廣泛的服務組合，而不是必要的——不一定是客戶成長，尤其是，我想，你們的傳統薪資業務。我想應該是這樣吧？能否詳細說明一下，在拓展這類核心薪資服務客戶群方面，您看到了哪些進展？

Tim, Marty can provide color commentary on the selling season. I would just caution that to infer that we weren't saying something about unit growth is not a correct assumption.

蒂姆，馬蒂可以為銷售季提供一些有趣的評論。我只想提醒大家，由此推論我們沒有在談論單位成長是不正確的假設。

Yes.

是的。

And obviously, we don't give the client base per se. But I would say, generally, we came into the year expecting that the client base would grow, and we haven't been disappointed. So that's what I'd say about unit growth, and Marty can talk a little bit about the selling season.

顯然，我們不會直接向客戶群提供資訊。但總的來說，我們年初就預期客戶群會成長，而事實也確實如此，我們沒有失望。以上就是我對銷售成長的看法，馬蒂可以談談銷售旺季的情況。

Yes. I think maybe what threw you off a little bit there, I mean, we had solid sales growth across-the-board in the first half of the year. In the third quarter, there was some moderation on the payroll side, but we still had -- probably are -- when you look overall, we had our best par growth in 3 years, I'd say, and certainly year-to-date and in that selling season overall. I think on the small business payroll side, I think it was impacted by some things that happened there, but I think we still had good -- we had still good sales, particularly on the inside sales piece. And we would expect to see the HR piece stronger because that's what we're pushing the most. Even on the payroll side, even small business payroll sales folks are leading with the complete package now. We just found that's what the clients were looking for. So I think it was a decent selling season, and it has continued where we've been through the year as good solid growth year-over-year in par.

是的。我想可能讓你有點困惑的是，我們上半年所有產品的銷售額都實現了穩健成長。第三季度，薪資支出方面有所放緩，但總體而言，我們仍然——可能現在仍然是——取得了三年來最好的每股收益增長，我認為，而且肯定是今年迄今為止以及整個銷售季以來最好的。我認為小型企業薪資方面受到了一些事情的影響，但我認為我們的銷售額仍然不錯，尤其是內部銷售方面。我們預期人力資源方面會更加加強，因為這是我們重點的領域。即使在薪資方面，就連小型企業的薪資銷售人員現在也開始提供全套服務了。我們發現這正是客戶想要的。所以我認為這是一個不錯的銷售季，而且今年以來，我們的業績也延續了良好的成長勢頭，與去年同期相比實現了穩健成長。

Okay. And just one follow-up to that, when you said the inside sales team, is that mostly SurePayroll and then sub-10 type of employee? Or what's the end market that's served by that's a part of the sales force?

好的。還有一個後續問題，您剛剛提到內部銷售團隊，那是不是大部分是 SurePayroll 的員工，其餘都是規模小於 10 人的員工？或者說，銷售團隊服務的最終市場是什麼？

Yes. What I mean by -- yes, I'm sorry. Our inside sales is not just SurePayroll. It's a pretty good-sized Europe sales team, which we've been increasing. And they handle, frankly, all products as well, but the way they sell everything inside. And they take a lot of the leads, particularly in the small end, and they take a lot of the leads that come over the web but, will sell all products over the phone.

是的。我的意思是——是的，我很抱歉。我們的內部銷售業務不僅限於 SurePayroll。我們擁有一支規模相當大的歐洲銷售團隊，而且我們還在不斷擴充團隊。坦白說，他們也經營所有產品，但他們銷售所有產品的方式卻很特別。他們獲取了許多銷售線索，尤其是在小額銷售方面，他們獲得了許多來自網路的銷售線索，但所有產品都是透過電話銷售的。

Your next question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Just a couple of quick ones. On the worksite employee front, is it fair to think that units are growing faster than the 17% given lower pass-throughs, and SUI declines and some of the other pressures. It seems like, every year, WSEs are growing at a good pace.

就簡單問幾個問題。就工作場所員工而言，考慮到較低的轉嫁成本、SUI 下降以及其他一些壓力，認為單位成長速度超過 17% 是否合理？似乎每年，WSE（倉儲、零售和證券交易所）都在以良好的速度成長。

WSEs are growing, I would say, in the range, Tien-Tsin. If we were in the quarter, it's comparable, I would say. It's a little bit actually below, but in that range.

我認為，WSE 在天津範圍內正在成長。如果放在季度末，我認為情況是可以比較的。實際上略低於這個數值，但仍在這個範圍內。

Okay. Now strong nonetheless then. Okay. Then secondly, just on SurePayroll, do you feel like you've narrowed the gap versus some of the, call it, the Silicon Valley guys on the distribution front? Forget about the product, I know you've talked a lot about product, but just on the distribution side, do you feel like you've narrowed the gap there?

好的。不過現在依然很強大。好的。其次，就 SurePayroll 而言，您是否覺得您在分銷方面已經縮小了與一些矽谷公司之間的差距？先不談產品，我知道你們談了很多關於產品的事情，但就分銷方面而言，你們覺得你們已經縮小了差距嗎？

Yes. I don't think -- yes, I mean, if -- I think the gap was wider on how much better we were than them. But -- so that hasn't narrowed at all. But yes, I think we compete very effectively with the kind of the West Coast that are out there. I think pricing-wise, we've come up with some new ways to price as well and to capture that client through things like e-commerce that we've been talking about. So yes, I think we're very competitive with them. And frankly, I've seen excellent productivity and sales out of those teams. They've done very well. And the e-commerce, I think as Efrain mentioned as well, is really taking off.

是的。我不認為——是的，我的意思是，如果——我認為我們比他們強得多，差距更大。但是——所以這個範圍根本沒有縮小。但是，是的，我認為我們與西海岸那些球隊的競爭非常有效。我認為在定價方面，我們也想出了一些新的定價方法，並透過我們一直在討論的電子商務等方式來吸引客戶。所以，是的，我認為我們和他們很有競爭力。坦白說，我看到這些團隊的生產力和銷售表現都非常出色。他們做得非常好。正如埃弗雷恩也提到的那樣，我認為電子商務正在蓬勃發展。

Tien-Tsin, mashing up your question with Tim's, increasingly, to understand the business, you have to do -- you have to go at it in a multichannel approach. You have to figure out what the right blend of feet on the street is, internal telesales and then web-based e-commerce sales. And I would say, the third piece of that trifecta was the e-commerce based sales. SurePayroll has given us that capability, and it looks like that opportunity may be additive to the other channels, not necessarily a substitute for the other channels. So we're looking at the results. We've got real-time data showing us, and increasingly in the future, to be successful selling not just payroll, but HR, too, you've got to have a capability in all 3 of those channels, both over the web, direct, without a sales person; field-based sales for the right kind of client; and internal telesales. And our competitors are also playing with that mix to try to figure out what makes sense. I think you need to have all 3 pieces of them. We have the pieces in place now. We're in the process of fine-tuning each of those 3 pieces.

Tien-Tsin，你把這個問題和 Tim 的問題混在一起，越來越像要了解業務，你必須——你必須採取多渠道的方法。你必須弄清楚如何將實地銷售、內部電話銷售和基於網路的電子商務銷售進行適當的組合。我認為，這三者中的第三個要素是基於電子商務的銷售。SurePayroll 為我們提供了這種能力，而這種機會似乎是對其他管道的補充，而不是對其他管道的替代方案。所以我們現在要看結果了。我們有即時數據表明，而且在未來會越來越明顯，要想成功銷售的不僅是工資單，還有人力資源服務，你必須具備所有這三個管道的能力：透過網路直接銷售（無需銷售人員）；針對合適客戶的現場銷售；以及內部電話銷售。我們的競爭對手也正在嘗試這種組合，試圖找出最適合的方案。我認為你需要這三件東西。現在一切就緒。我們正在對這三個部分進行微調。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon of Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

Lots of things that you're doing. I've got a ton of questions, but I'll limit it to a couple. Just with regards to just what you're doing on the e-com sales, what percentage of the SurePayroll sales are now coming through that channel?

你做了很多事。我有很多問題，但我只問幾個。就你們在電子商務銷售方面所做的工作而言，目前 SurePayroll 的銷售額中有多少百分比是透過該管道實現的？

Well, it's pretty small. We started in the last quarter -- well, in second quarter. And so it's still pretty small. It's -- but I think it's going to be growing pretty substantially. And as Efrain said, I think he made -- Efrain made a very good point there that it is, we think, in addition. So this is -- it's capturing that lead that's coming in when somebody's ready to buy right at that time and doesn't want a callback. And so I think, we're expecting that this will be in addition to kind of the other channels that we've had.

嗯，它很小。我們從上個季度開始——確切地說，是從第二季開始。所以它仍然很小。雖然現在還不多，但我認為它將會大幅成長。正如埃弗雷恩所說，我認為他——埃弗雷恩提出了一個非常好的觀點，那就是，我們認為，除此之外。所以，它的作用是──抓住那些在有人準備立即購買且不希望接到回電時產生的銷售線索。所以我認為，我們預計這將是我們已有的其他管道的補充。

And so I imagine you're going to end up extending it across-the-board in terms of offering this.

因此，我估計你們最終會全面推廣這項服務。

That would be very likely, yes. Yes.

是的，很有可能。是的。

Okay, great. And then with regards to just micro segmenting the payroll in the HCM market. Can you describe the different dynamics? When you're taking a look at the growth that you're seeing right now, we've traditionally talked about different sub-segments, whether it's truly small sub-6 employees versus 6 to 20 versus slightly higher and then getting into MMS. Where are you seeing the strongest growth?

好的，太好了。然後是關於在 HCM 市場中對薪資進行微觀細分的問題。你能描述一下不同的動態變化嗎？當你檢視目前所看到的成長時，我們歷來都會討論不同的細分市場，例如真正的小型企業（員工人數少於 6 人）、6 至 20 人的企業、員工人數稍多的企業，以及進入 MMS 領域的企業。您認為哪些領域成長最強？

So I would say, in part, because of these technology advances, Mark, we're seeing strong growth in the micro segment. I think we're seeing reasonable growth in the, and I'm going to call it, the 5 to 50 segment. And then midmarket, modest, I would say, at this point but largely and due to the fact that the level of competition there is very high. We'd add one thing though. If I now say, let's talk about client segment instead of by product and payroll but by client size, now what we see is that 20 and above is increasingly fragmenting into a MMS market and a PEO market. And on the PEO side, we're doing very, very well. So if you think about PEO's comprehensive outsourcing -- you were just with NSP, I saw your note. If you look at what's happening in that market, it's pretty clear that there is a trend in the market towards comprehensive outsourcing. And what we're seeing 20 and above is exactly the same thing. So we're -- in our system, we either are going to go with that client with potentially a MMS rep or in our midmarket rep or through a PEO, and in some cases, we incentivize them to cross-pollinate. And we're seeing a lot of success on the PEO side. So I think that's a bit of an overview. I think PEO increasingly needs to be overlaid with when you talk about midmarket because it's a solution that midmarket clients are interested in.

所以我認為，馬克，部分原因正是因為這些技術進步，我們看到了微型市場的強勁成長。我認為我們在 5 至 50 歲年齡層的人群中看到了合理的增長。然後是中端市場，我覺得目前來說規模不大，但這主要是因為那裡的競爭非常激烈。不過我們還要補充一點。如果我現在說，讓我們不按產品和薪資，而是按客戶規模來討論客戶細分，那麼我們現在看到的是，20 人及以上的客戶群正在日益分裂成 MMS 市場和 PEO 市場。在 PEO 方面，我們做得非常好。所以，如果你考慮PEO的全面外包——你剛才還在NSP，我看到了你的留言。如果你觀察這個市場正在發生的事情，就會很明顯地看出，市場正在朝著全面外包的方向發展。而我們看到的20歲以上的情況也完全一樣。所以，在我們的系統中，我們要么會透過 MMS 代表、中端市場代表或 PEO 與該客戶合作，在某些情況下，我們會激勵他們進行交叉合作。我們在 PEO 方面也取得了巨大的成功。所以，我想這算是一個大致的概述。我認為，在談到中端市場時，應該越來越多地將 PEO 與中端市場聯繫起來，因為這是中端市場客戶感興趣的解決方案。

Yes. That totally makes sense. I've been covering the PEO since the late 90s, so it's interesting to see the acceleration and the increased interest. When we factor in Oasis, just on the operating margin, because our callback is a little bit later and so I hope you'll indulge me on this. But we're scratching it out, and it looks to us like maybe the implication would be like around 30 -- so we're saying 37% or 38% ex Oasis, maybe 37-ish, and maybe that comes out to more like [35 to 37]. Is that with Oasis? Is that in the ballpark?

是的。完全說得通。我從90年代末就開始關注PEO，所以看到它的加速發展和日益增長的興趣，我覺得很有趣。當我們把 Oasis 考慮在內時，只考慮營運利潤率，因為我們的回檔時間稍晚一些，所以我希望您能體諒一下。但我們正在仔細計算，在我們看來，這個數字可能在 30 左右——所以我們說，除去 Oasis 樂隊，大概是 37% 或 38%，也許是 37% 左右，也許最終會是 35% 到 37% 之間。是和綠洲樂團一起嗎？這個數字差不多嗎？

Mark, you have a very sharp pencil. Your overall, you can look at it. I won't call it out specifically. But if you do the math, you're not incredibly far off, but I would caution one thing...

馬克，你的鉛筆很鋒利。你可以看看整體情況。我不會具體指出是哪一方。但如果你仔細計算一下，你會發現你的結果並沒有差太多，但我還是要提醒一點…

It's Greg and I.

是我和格雷格。

I'm sorry. I would say, increasingly, we think about the business also from an EBITDA margin perspective, too. So we've given you all the pieces there to calculate. We've also called out what we expect EBITDA margin to be next year. And there's not a lot of strange adjustments. It's pretty -- it will be very clear on the face of the cash flow statement and net income to get to a margin number, but that's what I'd say about that. And very, very preliminary.

對不起。我認為，我們越來越多地從 EBITDA 利潤率的角度來考慮業務。所以我們已經把所有需要計算的資訊都給你了。我們也預測了明年的 EBITDA 利潤率。而且也沒有太多奇怪的調整。很明顯——從現金流量表和淨收入中就能很清楚看出利潤率，這就是我對這方面的看法。而且非常非常初步。

And from a really longer-term perspective, there's 2 different dynamics that are occurring. One is you're early on in terms of the implementation of some of these efficiency measures as it relates to chatbots and everything that, that can end up doing from an efficiency and a service model perspective, which would obviously increase margins. On the flip side, we've got adding PEO, which just -- it's growing faster. So from a mix perspective, that's going to drive the margins down. How do we think about the balance of those 2 from a longer-term investor expectation perspective?

從更長遠的角度來看，目前存在著兩種不同的動態。一方面，你們在實施與聊天機器人相關的某些效率措施方面還處於早期階段，從效率和服務模式的角度來看，這些措施最終可以帶來顯著的效益，這顯然會提高利潤率。另一方面，我們增加了 PEO，它的成長速度更快。所以從產品組合的角度來看，這將拉低利潤率。從長期投資人預期角度來看，我們如何看待這兩者之間的平衡？

So Mark, I guess, I would say 2 things on that. One is assuming the current mix, when we get through the full year of Oasis, we would expect to come into 2021 improving EBITDA margins off the 20 base. So that would be our expectation. Caveating it, as I've been saying for 18 months, that if PEO growth accelerates even faster than we anticipate, which is still good teens growth, then that could impact that perspective. The other thing that could impact it is, I called out, management solutions. The management solutions growth in that area because it carries a higher margin, it would be an offset. But I think those are all the factors that as you plug in the model, you'd have to evaluate.

所以馬克，我想說兩點。假設目前的投資組合不變，那麼在 Oasis 完成全年營運後，我們預計 2021 年的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 20 年的基礎上有所提高。所以，這應該是我們的預期。需要說明的是，正如我過去 18 個月一直在說的那樣，如果 PEO 的成長速度比我們預期的還要快（儘管這仍然是青少年時期的良好成長），那麼這可能會影響這種觀點。我還指出，另一個可能產生影響的因素是管理解決方案。該領域的管理解決方案成長，因為其利潤率更高，這將起到抵消作用。但我認為，在將模型代入這些因素時，你需要評估所有這些因素。

Great. And then Marty, one last one. Just the client scores with regards to the clients that are being serviced through the chatbots. How is that trending relative to more traditional?

偉大的。最後，馬蒂，最後一個。僅針對透過聊天機器人接受服務的客戶進行客戶評分。這種趨勢與更傳統的趨勢相比如何？

Yes, very good. We look at it from a number of ways. We don't always get them to do enough client sat, but you get to that or they're getting it. We watch this very closely. I just had a meeting on this earlier this week. How much is -- how many of the questions are answered in the first question that they ask. How many are going to a service provider because they're not getting the answer. And that's being refined all the time. What we're seeing is that increase from 40% are being answered by the chatbot itself, now up to 45% in just a month. And I think if we look out 3 months or 6 months from now, I think that would be -- we're hoping that, that is quite a bit higher. And that will -- that's an indication to us that they're getting their answer. Now we also have other feedback channels. And so far, we're getting good feedback that the answer is being there. And again, you start with 30 questions, then it goes to 50. Now we're over 100 because of the machine learning part of that of refining the question and understanding the natural language of what's the client asking for, what are they really asking for and are we responding with the right answer. So it's pretty early, but at this early stage, to have 45% answered by the chatbot itself is very strong, we think. So we're getting good, positive feedback on that.

是的，非常好。我們從多個角度來看這個問題。我們並不總是能讓他們完成足夠的客戶滿意度調查，但要嘛你達到這個目標，要嘛他們就會明白。我們會密切關注此事。我本週稍早剛開過一個關於此事的會議。有多少問題——他們提出的第一個問題回答了多少個問題。有多少人因為得不到答案而求助於服務提供者？而且它還在不斷改進。我們看到，由聊天機器人直接回答的問題比例從 40% 增加到 45%，而這只是一個月的時間。我認為，如果我們展望未來 3 個月或 6 個月，我們希望這個數字能高得多。這表明他們正在得到答案。現在我們還有其他回饋管道。到目前為止，我們得到的回饋很好，答案就在那裡。同樣，一開始是 30 題，然後增加到 50 題。現在我們已經超過 100 個了，因為機器學習可以改善問題，理解客戶的自然語言需求，了解他們真正想要的是什麼，以及我們是否給出了正確的答案。現在還處於早期階段，但在這個早期階段，聊天機器人能夠回答 45% 的問題，我們認為這非常了不起。我們收到了很多正面的回饋。

Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯‧福塞特。

I wanted to ask a couple of follow-up questions. First, on Oasis, you made it pretty clear that you're tracking pretty close to what you'd thought. What should we look at as the potential, most likely sources of variance, either positively or negative, things that you should -- that you're tracking that we should be aware of that could cause some variance there? And then just a follow-up question quickly on the chatbot comments from the last question. It sounds like you're improving the response rate pretty nicely. What is -- what's your sense and what are your systems people telling you as kind of an ultimate ceiling for the chatbots at least within a reasonable time frame?

我想問幾個後續問題。首先，在 Oasis 這張專輯中，你已經很明確地表明，你的進度與你的預期非常接近。我們應該關注哪些潛在的、最有可能的差異來源（無論是正向的還是負向的），哪些因素是你應該關注的、我們應該注意的、可能導致差異的因素？然後，我想就上一個問題中聊天機器人的評論快速問一個後續問題。聽起來你們的回覆率提升效果相當不錯。你們覺得──或者說你們的系統人員告訴你們的──在合理的時間範圍內，聊天機器人的最終上限是多少？

Yes, let me -- I'll start with that one. I think it's around -- it's still really pretty early. You don't get a lot of great data on this. But I think if we could get 70% long term, if you could get 70% answered by the bot by itself, I think that's pretty strong based on today's standards. So having only been in it pretty early, heading towards 50%, we feel really good about it. And you do get an awful lot of data. Given our use of it, we're able to change it pretty quickly and enhance it based on the number of people that are using it. So I think it's heading toward a -- I think it would be good to head towards a 60%, 70% response because there's always nuances that people may want to talk to a live person. But that is changing pretty rapidly. This is really in response to the way the client doesn't, as you'd probably know, most younger clients, in particular, don't want to talk to somebody. They'd just soon chat or -- and have -- and if it's a chatbot that gives the answer. And by the way, this is going to expand pretty dramatically to taking you, not only answering your question but saying, "Do you want me to take you there?" So "Hey, where do I find my check stub?" It's here, today. Now it says, it's here, go here. Now -- next, it'll be, "Let me take you there by hitting this." And if the question is how do I do something, it will evolve to video, short streaming video that will show you in 30 seconds or less, this is how you do it or you can contact somebody. So that will all continue to evolve the way the client needs it. First question?

好的，讓我來——我就從那個開始吧。我覺得差不多了——現在還為時過早。這方面沒有太多有價值的數據。但我認為，如果我們能長期達到 70% 的準確率，如果機器人能夠獨立回答 70% 的問題，我認為以今天的標準來看，這已經相當不錯了。所以，儘管我們很早就參與其中，目前已接近 50%，我們對此感到非常滿意。而且你會獲得海量數據。鑑於我們對它的使用，我們能夠根據使用人數快速地對其進行更改和改進。所以我認為，最終的回應率應該達到 60% 到 70%，因為總是會有一些細微差別，例如人們可能想和真人交談。但這種情況正在迅速改變。這其實是為了回應客戶的這種需求，你可能也知道，尤其是大多數年輕客戶，他們不想和人交談。他們很快就會聊天，或者——而且已經——如果是聊天機器人，就會給出答案。順便說一句，這項服務將會大幅擴展，不僅會回答你的問題，還會問你：「你想讓我帶你去那裡嗎？」所以，「嘿，我的工資單在哪裡？」它就在這裡，就在今天。現在它說，就在這裡，去這裡。接下來，它會變成「點擊這裡，帶你到那裡」。如果問題是“我該如何操作”，它會演變成視頻，一種30秒或更短的短視頻，向你展示如何操作，或者你可以聯繫誰。所以這一切都會根據客戶的需求不斷發展而改變。第一個問題？

Yes. On Oasis, I think that we have a pretty good handle now on both revenue and expenses in the business. There are targets that we have set internally in terms of cost savings that we're measuring against the business. They're comprehensive in -- at least the framework that we gave you. So we'll be looking at that. And obviously, a success winning client is an important part of the equation as we head into next year.

是的。關於 Oasis，我認為我們現在對公司的收入和支出都有了相當不錯的控制。我們內部設定了一些成本節約目標，並正在根據業務狀況進行衡量。它們很全面——至少在我們給你的框架內是如此。所以我們會關注這一點。顯然，在邁向明年之際，贏得客戶的成功是成功的重要因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Neill of Autonomous Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Matt O'Neill。

A real quick housekeeping question on the preliminary outlook for fiscal 2020. What are your interest rate assumptions on the funds held?

關於2020財年的初步展望，我有一個簡短的例行問題。您對所持資金的利率預期是多少？

I'm sorry. Say that again?

對不起。再說一次？

Interest rate assumptions in 2020.

2020 年利率假設。

Oh, interest rate assumptions. Matt, we didn't include them, in part, because we need to see where the Fed is at this point. But we would assume that there really are not going to be rate increases there. So you'd see some modest increase on our client -- our interest on funds held for clients at this point. That's what we think is a more likely scenario. Hopefully, we don't end up in a scenario where it goes the other way. But we tend to doubt that, that's what's going to happen.

哦，利率假設。馬特，我們沒有把它們包括進來，部分原因是我們需要看看聯準會目前的立場是什麼。但我們認為那裡應該不會出現利率上漲。因此，您會看到我們客戶的收益略有增長——這是我們目前為客戶持有的資金的利息。我們認為這更有可能是實際情況。希望我們不會陷入相反的境地。但我們往往懷疑這是否真的會發生。

That's right. That makes a lot of sense. I know you've been asked a bit about some of the sort of Silicon Valley startup competitive dynamic already. And in previous calls, you've been asked more pointedly about Square, and I think just because they're a well-known name, it comes up a lot in discussions. Is that something that you're seeing more or hearing about more? Or is this still kind of a different market with respect to your kind of customer base and your targets and their true kind of micro merchant addressable market?

這是正確的。這很有道理。我知道之前已經有人問過你一些關於矽谷新創公司競爭格局的問題了。在之前的通話中，你曾被更直接地問及 Square，我想正是因為他們是一個家喻戶曉的名字，所以在討論中經常會被提及。你是不是常常看到或聽到這類事情？或者，就你的客戶群、目標客戶以及他們真正的微型商家目標市場而言，這仍然是一個不同的市場嗎？

Well, I think, Matt, some of the market is the same. But we haven't seen or heard much from that. They have -- like they announced getting into the payroll. It was more a payroll mobile app, but it was only for employers, for example, and I think it's still that way. There is not an employee e-mobile app. And that was -- and frankly, something like that. So it got a lot of press. I think that's as far as they went or at least the last that we've seen. And the employee piece is really the biggest piece of the mobile app, and we feel like we have a very competitive mobile app with a five-star kind of rating at this point. So we're feeling very good that, that's very competitive. And we have not seen any takeaways or any real feedback of people leaving to go to Square. I think it rounds out their product set from a credit card and processing standpoint, but we have not seen someone who's going to go there necessarily for payroll and a mobile payroll app that's only for the employer.

嗯，我覺得，馬特，部分市場是相同的。但我們對此並沒有看到或聽到太多消息。他們已經——就像他們宣布加入工資隊伍一樣。它更像是一款工資管理行動應用，但僅供雇主使用，例如，而且我認為現在仍然如此。目前還沒有員工專用的手機應用程式。事情就是這樣——坦白說，差不多就是這樣。所以這件事引起了媒體的廣泛關注。我想這就是他們所能達到的極限了，或者至少是我們看到的最後一次。員工功能是這款行動應用最重要的部分，我們感覺目前我們的行動應用非常有競爭力，達到了五星級水準。所以我們感覺非常好，競爭非常激烈。我們沒有看到任何關於人們離開去Square的跡像或實際回饋。我認為從信用卡和支付處理的角度來看，這完善了他們的產品組合，但我們還沒有看到有人會專門為了工資管理和僅供雇主使用的行動工資管理應用程式而選擇他們。

Got it. So they're probably hunting more within their own existing merchant client base as opposed to the greenfield opportunities out there more broadly where you're a lot more established.

知道了。所以他們可能更傾向於在自己現有的商家客戶群中尋找機會，而不是在更廣泛的領域尋找新的商機，因為在後者，他們已經擁有更成熟的市場地位。

Yes, I think so. And that plus, I think anyone who would look at that, even though you may have your processing through them, I think if anybody was really looking for an app that provided a full feature employer and employee access and gave the full features of retirement and payroll and HR administration, all on the app, I don't think there would be any comparison, so.

是的，我也這麼認為。而且，我認為任何看過這款應用程式的人，即使你的流程可能透過他們進行，我認為如果有人真的在尋找一款能夠提供雇主和僱員完整訪問權限，並提供退休、工資和人力資源管理等所有功能的應用程序，我認為沒有其他應用可以與之媲美。

Your next question comes from the line of Ashwin Shirvaikar of Citibank.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ashwin Shirvaikar。

Thank you for all the detail, including on 2020. I wanted to kind of get into your statement on introducing the discussion on EBITDA margin as well as saying that you're now thinking of the business more on the EBITDA basis. Is that a comment on future capital allocation, use of cash? Should we -- sort of maybe combining that with the comment on low PEO penetration, it implies more Oasis-type deals. How should I think of that?

感謝您提供的所有細節，包括 2020 年的情況。我想就您提出的關於引入 EBITDA 利潤率討論的聲明進行一些補充說明，也想說明您現在更多地是從 EBITDA 的角度來考慮業務。這是對未來資本配置和現金使用情況的評論嗎？我們是否應該——或許可以把這一點與 PEO 滲透率低的評論結合起來，這意味著會有更多 Oasis 類型的交易。我該怎麼看待這件事？

Yes. I don't -- I think, to some degree, as Efrain mentioned in his comments, that does make some sense to the fact that amortizations and so forth. We want to make sure that it's very clear where the margins really are because of the PEO business and sometimes the impact on operating margins versus EBITDA margins from an acquisition type of standpoint. So I think you're certainly right on that, and Efrain, I think, mentioned that. But as -- on a go forward basis, we're certainly looking very much on organic growth and combining the strength. Here, we bought the largest private PEO in the business, and we feel like that integration is going very well. And so will we continue -- part of Oasis' plans were to continue roll-ups of other PEOs to add more strength to their offerings, and we'll look at continuing to do that. Will it be the size of Oasis? Not really, because there's no one out there of that size. But I think that their strategy of rolling up, and was part of ours as well, will probably continue.

是的。我不這麼認為——我認為，在某種程度上，正如埃弗雷恩在他的評論中提到的那樣，這確實與攤銷等事實有關。我們希望確保利潤率的真正情況非常清楚，因為 PEO 業務有時會對營業利潤率與 EBITDA 利潤率產生影響，而從收購的角度來看，情況更是如此。所以我覺得你說的完全正確，而且我想埃弗雷恩也提到過這一點。但展望未來，我們當然會非常注重內生成長和優勢整合。我們收購了業內最大的私人 PEO 公司，我們覺得整合進展非常順利。因此，我們將繼續這樣做——Oasis 的部分計劃是繼續收購其他 PEO，以增強其產品和服務，我們將繼續這樣做。它會像綠洲酒店那麼大嗎？其實不然，因為世界上沒有體型那麼大的人。但我認為，他們採取的收縮戰線策略（也是我們策略的一部分）可能會持續下去。

Got it. And just switching gears a bit, as your existing client employees sort of go through the current tax filing process in the tax season, are you beginning to maybe see a change in withholding? Is there potentially maybe a surprise with their returns and so on? Or is it too early to tell? Any comment on future withholding patterns?

知道了。稍微換個話題，隨著您現有客戶的員工在報稅季進行當前的報稅流程，您是否開始注意到預扣稅款發生了一些變化？他們的回報等方面會不會有什麼意想不到的狀況？現在下結論還為時過早嗎？對於未來的扣款模式有何評論？

I think we haven't really seen it yet. I think it might be a little bit too early until the filing date of April, even though people file early. I think they are -- you do get anecdotal evidence that certainly people are looking at it and asking a lot of questions of their tax preparers, like how do I avoid this next time? And how do -- and so I -- probably, we would expect to see withholdings go up a little bit and, therefore, probably the cash balance is up a little bit. But it would -- it's a little bit early to see that just yet.

我覺得我們還沒真正看到它。我認為即使人們會提前提交申請，但距離四月份的報稅截止日期還有一段時間可能還是有點早。我認為確實如此——的確有一些軼事證據表明，人們正在關注此事，並向他們的稅務規劃人員提出很多問題，例如下次如何避免這種情況？所以，我們可能會預期預扣稅款會略有上升，因此，現金餘額可能會略有上升。但現在就斷言會如此還為時過早。

Got it. And last question is, it's been asked a couple of different ways, the digital option that you spoke about. And you mentioned that you might be seeing a demand for this in other parts of your tech stack. Can you talk about how you're thinking of the level of future tech investments as well as whether this mix will rethink your sort of your traditional sales force process?

知道了。最後一個問題，也是大家用幾種不同方式問過的，就是您提到的數位化選項。您提到，您技術棧的其他部分可能也存在這種需求。您能否談談您對未來技術投​​資水準的看法，以及這種組合是否會重新思考您傳統的銷售團隊流程？

Well, I think, you're talking more of the e-commerce. But I mean, overall, we're always looking, as Efrain said, like even the sales -- well, the sales process is definitely -- it has been changing. And I feel like we've been changing and, to some degree, a few years ago, catching up now. I feel like we're in pretty good shape with the lead and demand gen investment that we use from some of the tax reform money in the last year to 18 months. We really have found how to capture much more data on clients even searching for Paychex, how to get more of those leads. And also how to deal with leads that are not -- that need to be nurtured, as we would say. So they're not ready to buy yet, but you don't just lose those. You put them in a process, where they're nurtured, and I'm sure you're aware of this, with papers -- white papers on HR, and you build the credibility of PayChex. So when they are ready to buy, they're right there. So the increase in the way we've handled this from a digital process and a much more defined data analytics is much stronger than ever. We've been very good on the data analytics for using our client data that say when someone might have an issue or might be ready to leave us or something like that, but this lead generation has gotten a lot tighter. And then the next-generation -- the further generation of that is this e-commerce platform, it's sure right now, which we also found that the leads may be great, we may be able to get ahold of a lot more prospects, but it's hard -- but we may get a lot more prospects, but it's really hard to reach them. And so e-commerce allows them to come in, decide and select and start going down the process. And that is a much more powerful tool, probably than we even expected as far as capturing new leads. So we're constantly looking at this. The data collection and data analytics is becoming such a bigger part of the service model and the sales model. And I feel like we've got the right people on it and the right tools in place.

嗯，我覺得，你指的是電子商務。但我的意思是，總的來說，正如埃弗雷恩所說，我們一直在關注銷售——銷售過程肯定——一直在改變。我覺得我們一直在改變，並且在某種程度上，幾年前我們一直落後於時代，現在我們正在迎頭趕上。我覺得我們利用過去一年到一年半的時間裡從稅收改革中獲得的一些資金，在潛在客戶開發和需求生成方面投入了相當多的資金，目前情況相當不錯。我們確實找到了獲取更多關於搜尋 Paychex 的客戶資料的方法，以及如何獲得更多潛在客戶。以及如何處理那些尚未成型的潛在客戶——正如我們所說，需要精心培育的潛在客戶。所以他們還沒準備好購買，但你不能就此失去他們。你把他們放入一個流程中，讓他們得到培養，我相信你也意識到了這一點，透過文件——關於人力資源的白皮書，你建立了 PayChex 的信譽。所以當他們準備購買時，他們就在那裡。因此，我們處理此事的方式，從數位化流程和更明確的數據分析，到如今的改進力度，比以往任何時候都要大得多。我們一直很擅長利用客戶資料分析來判斷客戶何時可能遇到問題或準備離開我們等等，但這種潛在客戶開發方式變得更加嚴格了。然後是下一代——再下一代就是這個電子商務平台，目前我們確實發現，雖然潛在客戶數量可能很多，我們或許能夠接觸到更多潛在客戶，但很難——我們或許能獲得更多潛在客戶，但真的很難聯繫到他們。因此，電子商務讓他們能夠進來，做出決定，選擇商品，然後開始購物流程。而且，就獲取新客戶而言，它可能比我們預期的還要強大得多。所以我們會一直關注這個問題。資料收集和資料分析正日益成為服務模式和銷售模式中越來越重要的組成部分。我覺得我們已經找到了合適的人選，也配備了合適的工具。

And the other part of that question on the absolute level of tax spend?

那麼，關於稅收支出絕對水準的另一個問題呢？

I think, well, we're at a pretty good kind of percentage of revenue, and we kind of stick to that. I think we had, obviously, an enhancement to that last year, but we feel like we can get back to a pretty levelized -- level of tech spend, and we're doing pretty good with that. We've also found ways to be more productive in the tech side as well and what our spend is by how we're doing some of that.

我認為，嗯，我們的收入佔比相當不錯，我們也基本上保持在這個水準。我認為，去年我們在這方面顯然有所提升，但我們感覺我們可以將技術支出恢復到一個相當穩定的水平，而且我們在這方面做得相當不錯。我們也找到了提高技術方面效率的方法，並透過這些方法來控制我們的支出。

Your final question comes from the line of David Grossman of Stifel.

你的最後一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman 的理念。

Listen, I know we're closing in on 90 minutes here, so just 3 real quick ones. First, can we -- if you look at organic PEO growth in fiscal '19, can you help disaggregate the kind of WSE growth versus insurance and any other pricing dynamics that may be impacting growth?

聽著，我知道我們快要到90分鐘了，所以就簡單說3個問題吧。首先，如果我們看一下 2019 財年的有機 PEO 成長，您能否幫助我們區分 WSE 成長與保險成長以及任何其他可能影響成長的定價動態？

When you say impacting growth, what do you mean, David? I don't -- I'm not sure...

大衛，你說的「影響成長」是什麼意思？我不確定…

Well, I'm just trying to disaggregate, I think it was 17% of organic growth?

我只是想細化一下，我認為有機成長佔比是 17%？

Yes. So we've seen teens growth in revenue. I called out on the script where we are in terms of PEO and insurance growth. When you look at the PEO, again, growing in the teens. Worksite employees, growing in the teens. Some quarters, we've been a little bit above. Some quarters, a little bit below. But you're getting the contributions coming from the fact that you're getting good worksite employee growth, not necessarily because of pricing or add-ons from pass-through, so I'd say that. When you disaggregate a little bit of the change in the growth rate that I called out, it really is a function of the fact that the insurance portion of PEO and insurance is growing more slowly than the PEO. And then we've got this drag that really is more of a second half of the year -- second half of the year event that will be persistent to -- into next year, and it could change, markets change. But if you look at the underlying PEO, we expect it to grow in the teens, and we would expect worksite employee growth to grow comparable, that's excluding Oasis. Including Oasis, the growth rate comes down a little bit just simply because it's a larger business. You -- the law of large number starts to take place. And we expect to get a combination of both worksite employee growth and new client growth to drive that -- the growth that's embedded in the outlook that we gave.

是的。所以我們看到青少年市場的收入有所成長。我指出了我們在 PEO 和保險成長方面所處的現狀。當你再次觀察 PEO 時，你會發現它在青少年時期也在成長。工作場所員工，年齡在十幾歲。在某些方面，我們略勝一籌。有些地方，略低於這個水平。但你獲得的收益來自於工作場所員工的良好成長，而不是因為價格或轉嫁的附加費用，所以我會這麼說。當你稍微分解我提到的成長率變化時，你會發現這實際上是由於 PEO 中的保險部分和保險業務的成長速度比 PEO 整體成長速度慢所造成的。然後，我們又面臨這種拖累，這實際上更像是今年下半年的事件——這種下半年的事件將持續到明年，而且情況可能會改變，市場也會改變。但如果你看一下 PEO 的基礎業務，我們預計其成長率將達到兩位數，我們預計工作場所員工的成長也將與之相當，這還不包括 Oasis。如果將 Oasis 也算在內，成長率會略有下降，這僅僅是因為它是一家規模更大的公司。你——大數定律開始發揮作用了。我們預計，工作場所員工成長和新客戶成長的結合將推動這一成長——這是我們在預測中體現的成長。

All right. Great. And just following up in terms of the composition of the PEO, I mean, obviously, 2 significant acquisitions in the last 1.5 or 2 years. Can you give us just a sense of what the PEO looks like today, excluding the ASO? For example, I know you report a combined WSE number. Can you give us a sense for what PEO is, excluding ASO? And what your mix is between white and blue gray? And also, what your at-risk kind of percentage of insurance businesses?

好的。偉大的。至於 PEO 的組成，很明顯，在過去 1.5 到 2 年裡進行了 2 次重大收購。能否簡單介紹一下目前 PEO 的運作情況，不包括 ASO？例如，我知道你們會報告一個綜合的 WSE 數據。能否簡要介紹PEO（不包括ASO）是什麼？白色和藍灰色之間的混合比例是多少？另外，你們保險公司的風險佔比是多少？

Yes. Okay, good. Three compound -- that's a 1 -- that counts for 3, David, but okay, I'll answer it. So the first thing is, look, our client base is blue gray or gray blue, less white and more gray blue. And obviously, we want the composition of that base to moderate more gray over time than simply blue. So we'll look at that. That has a lot of implications as you know because you know the industry very well in terms of rates of healthcare attachment and workers comp rates. But we feel we're in a good place there. If you look at where we are from a worksite employee perspective, I haven't disclosed it. But if you look at number 1 and you know what that number is, and you know where -- what number 3 is, we're number 2, right in the middle of the 2. So that will give you a sense of where we are from a worksite employee standpoint. And so we think in that space that Oasis has -- and I would come back to something Marty said earlier, in that space that the combination of the Paychex's PEO and also, HROI and Oasis occupy, there is a lot of opportunity there. And right now, our at-risk insurance, in other words, those nonguaranteed cost insurance is primarily limited to the Florida market, and everything else that -- so the only thing that we are reporting as pass-through revenue is the minimum premium revenues largely, the minimum premium revenues that we're collecting in Florida, which is a percentage. It's not half of the percent of what we sell on health insurance. It's a pretty carefully controlled amount of risk that we're taking. So if you look at everyone else in the industry, we occupy a middle ground between the position that the largest competitor takes, which is all apparently guaranteed cost and others that are all at-risk. We carefully control the amount of that risk insurance that we have.

是的。好的。三個化合物——那就是 1——算 3 分，大衛，好吧，我會回答的。所以首先，你看，我們的客戶群以藍灰色或灰藍色為主，白色較少，灰藍色較多。顯然，我們希望隨著時間的推移，該基底的成分逐漸呈現出更多的灰色，而不僅僅是藍色。所以我們會研究這個問題。如您所知，這會產生很多影響，因為您非常了解醫療保健附加率和工傷賠償率等行業相關數據。但我們覺得我們在那裡處境不錯。如果從工作場所員工的角度來看，我還沒有透露具體情況。但是，如果你看一下數字 1，你知道這個數字是什麼，也知道數字 3 在哪裡，我們是數字 2，剛好在 2 的中間。這樣你就能從職場員工的角度了解我們所處的位置了。因此，我們認為 Oasis 所處的領域——我想回到 Marty 之前提到的一點——在 Paychex 的 PEO 以及 HROI 和 Oasis 共同佔據的領域，存在著很多機會。而目前，我們的風險保險，換句話說，那些非保證成本的保險，主要限於佛羅裡達州市場，其他所有——因此，我們報告的唯一轉嫁收入主要是最低保費收入，即我們在佛羅裡達州收取的最低保費收入，這是一個百分比。這還不到我們健康保險銷售額的一半。我們承擔的風險是經過嚴格控制的。所以，如果你看看業內其他所有人，我們會發現我們處於一種中間立場，介於最大的競爭對手所採取的「所有成本都得到保證」的立場和「所有成本都承擔風險」的立場之間。我們對風險保險的投保金額進行了嚴格控制。

Okay, got it. And then just finally in the spirit of abusing the time limit here, your workers comp comment, because of the blue gray composition, why isn't it that the workers comp dynamic in the insurance side of your business isn't impacting the PEO business as well? I would think more favorably, it being the (inaudible). So what's going on?

好的，明白了。最後，為了不耽誤時間，我想就您關於工傷賠償的評論說一句，由於藍灰色成分，為什麼您業務保險方面的工傷賠償動態沒有影響到 PEO 業務呢？我覺得應該更樂觀一些，因為它是（聽不清楚）。到底發生了什麼事？

In the PEO, because you've got a bundle, you can offset the pieces of the bundle that you're selling. So in a steady state, right? You would have some impact, but the reality is, you're balancing that between the amount of healthcare insurance you're selling and the amount of workers comp that's attaching and also the amount of admin fees you're charging. Our PEO is a little bit different probably than anyone else in the industry. When we underwrite a PEO customer, we do -- we make a determination, do we want you in our risk pool? Because if we don't want you in our risk pool, we're going to send you to our insurance agency, and you're going to get priced that way. So we've got a little bit more control on the PEO side. And to the extent that we don't like the risk, we basically offset the -- we offload the risk to specialized carriers that don't mind dealing with that level of risk. So the net-net net of what I just said is, it really doesn't have much of an impact on the PEO side.

在 PEO 模式下，由於你提供的是捆綁銷售服務，你可以抵消你銷售的捆綁產品的各個部分的成本。所以處於穩定狀態，對吧？你會產生一些影響，但現實情況是，你需要在你銷售的醫療保險金額、附帶的工傷賠償金額以及你收取的管理費金額之間取得平衡。我們的PEO（專業雇主組織）可能與業內其他任何一家都略有不同。當我們對 PEO 客戶進行核保時，我們會做出決定，我們是否希望您將我們的風險池？因為如果我們不想讓你加入我們的風險池，我們會把你送到我們的保險公司，你的保費也會按照保險公司的標準來計算。因此，我們在PEO方面有了更多的控制權。如果我們認為風險太大，我們基本上會抵消這種風險——我們將風險轉移給那些不介意處理這種風險的專業保險公司。所以綜上所述，我剛才所說的其實對 PEO 方面並沒有太大影響。

Thank you. I will now return the call to Martin Mucci for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我將回撥電話給馬丁·穆奇，讓他補充或作總結發言。

Great. Thank you. At this point, we will close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast of this conference call, it will be archived for about 30 days. Thank you for taking the time to participate in our third quarter press release conference call and for your interest in Paychex. Thank you very much.

偉大的。謝謝。至此，我們將結束通話。如果您有興趣重播本次電話會議的網路直播，它將存檔約 30 天。感謝您抽空參加我們第三季新聞發布電話會議，也感謝您對 Paychex 的關注。非常感謝。

Thank you for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。