奧的斯電梯 (OTIS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Otis' second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being carried live on the Internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis' website at www.otis.com.

早安，歡迎參加奧的斯 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。此次通話正在網路上直播並錄音以供重播。示範資料可從 Otis 網站 www.otis.com 下載。

I'll now turn the call over to Rob Quartaro, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Rob Quartaro。

Thank you, Tina. Welcome to Otis' second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President; and Cristina Mendez, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，蒂娜。歡迎參加奧的斯 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事長、執行長兼總裁朱迪·馬克斯 (Judy Marks) 和執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜·門德斯 (Cristina Mendez)。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding restructuring and significant non-recurring items. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

請注意，除非另有說明，本公司將討論不包括重組和重大非經常性項目的持續經營績效。這些措施的對帳可以在網路廣播的附錄中找到。我們也提醒聽眾，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述具有風險和不確定性。

Otis' SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

奧的斯向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（包括我們的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表季度報告）詳細說明了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素。

Now I'll turn it over to Judy.

現在我將把話題交給茱蒂。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We hope everyone listening is safe and well.

謝謝你，羅布。大家早安、下午好、晚上好。感謝您加入我們。我們希望每個聽眾都平安健康。

Starting with Q2 highlights on slide 3. Otis delivered solid second quarter and first half results as the Service segment continued to drive strong performance with both a year over year and a sequential operating profit margin improvement. Organic service sales in the second quarter were up 4%, with growth across all business lines and in all regions. Our maintenance portfolio grew 4% again in the quarter, adding to our industry-leading 2.4 million unit portfolio under service.

從幻燈片 3 上的 Q2 亮點開始。奧的斯第二季和上半年業績穩健，服務部門持續保持強勁表現，營業利潤率較去年同期和季比均有所提高。第二季有機服務銷售額成長 4%，所有業務線和所有地區均成長。我們的維護組合在本季再次成長了 4%，使我們的服務組合達到了業界領先的 240 萬台。

Modernization momentum continued as we accelerated orders to 22% and ended the quarter with a backlog up 16% at constant currency. New equipment orders decreased by 1% due to continued economic challenges in China, while orders in the rest of the world increased 11% versus the prior year. We continue to make progress with UpLift and we remain on track to achieve $200 million in run rate savings by year-end.

隨著我們加快訂單量至 22%，並在本季末以固定匯率計算的積壓訂單量成長 16%，現代化動能持續維持。由於中國持續的經濟挑戰，新設備訂單下降了 1%，而世界其他地區的訂單較上年增長了 11%。我們繼續在 UpLift 方面取得進展，並預計在年底前實現 2 億美元的運行率節省。

Additionally, in response to continued weakness in China, we're executing additional actions to reduce costs as part of our China transformation. We now anticipate run rate savings of approximately $40 million by year-end. Our 2025 in-year savings targets remain at $70 million and $20 million for UpLift in China transformation, respectively. Together, these initiatives are enabling us to deliver greater customer centricity and to invest in growth.

此外，為了應對中國市場持續疲軟，我們正在採取額外措施降低成本，這是我們中國市場轉型的一部分。我們目前預計到年底可節省約 4,000 萬美元。我們 2025 年的年度節省目標仍為 7,000 萬美元，用於 UpLift 中國轉型，2,000 萬美元。這些措施共同使我們能夠提供更以客戶為中心的服務並投資於成長。

In addition, we also now expect the impact of 2025 tariffs to be roughly half of our expectations in April to a range of $25 million to $35 million, reflecting more favorable reciprocal tariff rates and our mitigation efforts. We completed approximately $300 million in share repurchases in the second quarter, taking year-to-date repurchases to approximately $550 million.

此外，我們現在也預計，2025 年關稅的影響將大約是我們 4 月預期的一半，達到 2,500 萬至 3,500 萬美元之間，這反映了更優惠的互惠關稅稅率和我們的緩解措施。我們在第二季完成了約 3 億美元的股票回購，使年初至今的回購總額達到約 5.5 億美元。

During the quarter, we closed on our previously announced acquisition of eight urban elevator locations in the US. This deal further expands our maintenance portfolio and enhances our ability to serve customers. Adjusted EPS was $1.97 in the first half of the year, growing 2% versus the same period last year due to solid margin expansion and continued tax planning efforts.

本季度，我們完成了先前宣布的美國八個城市電梯站點的收購。這筆交易進一步擴大了我們的維護組合併增強了我們服務客戶的能力。上半年調整後每股收益為 1.97 美元，由於利潤率穩步擴大和持續的稅務規劃努力，較去年同期成長 2%。

In June, we published our Connect and Thrive report that outlines our progress and commitments to 4 key areas: health and safety, governance and accountability, environment and impact and people and communities. These areas are closely aligned with our strategic vision and the Otis Absolutes of safety, ethics and quality that we live by every day.

6 月，我們發布了《互聯互通，蓬勃發展》報告，概述了我們在四個關鍵領域取得的進展和承諾：健康與安全、治理與問責、環境與影響以及人民與社區。這些領域與我們的策略願景以及我們每天所遵循的 Otis 絕對安全、道德和品質原則緊密結合。

During the quarter, we were honored to be recognized with several sustainability awards. USA TODAY, in collaboration with Statista included Otis among America's climate leaders and Forbes recognized Otis among 200 US companies included on the net zero leaders list for reduction of carbon emissions.

本季度，我們很榮幸獲得多項永續發展獎項。《今日美國》與 Statista 合作，將奧的斯列為美國氣候領袖之一，《富比士》將奧的斯列為減少碳排放的淨零領導者名單中的 200 家美國公司之一。

Newsweek also recognized Otis among companies from 26 different countries for our environmental sustainability performance. And most recently, Time Magazine named Otis among the world's most sustainable companies for the second consecutive year.

《新聞週刊》也表彰了奧的斯在環境永續發展方面所取得的成就，並將其與來自 26 個不同國家的公司進行比較。最近，《時代》雜誌連續第二年將奧的斯評為全球最具永續發展能力的公司之一。

Turning to our orders performance on slide 4. Combined new equipment and modernization orders grew 4% in the quarter, driven by continued strength in modernization. Excluding China, orders grew 14% with notable strength in the Americas and Asia Pacific. Our combined backlog remained relatively flat year over year. However, excluding China, it increased 10%.

轉到投影片 4 上的訂單表現。受現代化持續強勁推動，本季新設備和現代化訂單合計成長 4%。除中國外，訂單成長了 14%，美洲和亞太地區的成長尤為強勁。我們的合併積壓訂單較去年同期保持相對穩定。然而，不包括中國，成長了 10%。

Our total backlog, including maintenance and repair is at historically high levels, positioning us well for future quarters. New equipment orders declined 1% in the quarter. However, excluding China, we saw a robust 11% growth.

我們的總積壓訂單（包括維護和維修）處於歷史最高水平，為我們未來幾季的業績做好了準備。本季新設備訂單下降了 1%。然而，除中國外，我們的成長強勁，達到 11%。

For the fourth straight quarter, the Americas orders were up in the low teens. Asia Pacific also delivered strong results with order growth exceeding 20% for the third consecutive quarter, led by Southeast Asia and India. This strength was offset by continued softness in China where orders declined by more than 20%. Note, however, that our China new equipment orders were sequentially stable in the first half of 2025 and we anticipate year-over-year growth in the coming quarters.

美洲地區的訂單量連續第四個季度出現小幅成長。亞太地區也取得了強勁業績，訂單量連續第三個季度成長超過 20%，其中東南亞和印度的增幅最大。但中國市場的持續疲軟抵消了這一優勢，中國訂單下降了 20% 以上。但請注意，我們的中國新設備訂單在 2025 年上半年保持穩定，並且我們預計未來幾季將實現同比成長。

In EMEA, new equipment orders declined low single digits as strength in the Middle East was offset by weaker demand in Europe. At constant currency, our new equipment backlog declined 3% year over year, but excluding China, it grew 8%.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於中東地區的強勁需求被歐洲需求的疲軟所抵消，新設備訂單下降了個位數。以固定匯率計算，我們的新設備積壓訂單年減了 3%，但不包括中國，則成長了 8%。

Modernization acceleration continued as orders grew 22% leading to our quarter-end backlog up 16% at constant currency, with Americas, China, and Asia Pacific, each growing orders more than 20%. The modernization opportunity is compelling, driven by the aging of the 22 million unit installed base. We continue to expect these aging units to drive a multiyear growth cycle across our regions.

現代化進程持續加速，訂單成長 22%，導致我們季度末積壓訂單以固定匯率計算成長 16%，其中美洲、中國和亞太地區的訂單成長均超過 20%。由於 2,200 萬台已安裝設備的老化，現代化機會十分引人注目。我們繼續預期這些老化的單位將推動我們所在地區的多年成長週期。

Our service portfolio grew 4% in the quarter with contributions from all regions. China's strong growth trajectory continued as the region grew its portfolio low teens. Asia Pacific grew mid-single digit and EMEA and Americas grew low-single digits. As our global teams continue to deliver, we're proud to share second quarter customer highlights that reflect our success in winning strategic projects through innovation, execution, and trusted collaborations.

本季我們的服務組合成長了 4%，所有地區都做出了貢獻。中國強勁的成長軌跡仍在持續，該地區的投資組合成長率維持在10%左右。亞太地區實現了中等個位數成長，而歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及美洲地區實現了低個位數成長。隨著我們的全球團隊繼續提供服務，我們很自豪地分享第二季的客戶亮點，這些亮點反映了我們透過創新、執行和值得信賴的合作贏得策略專案的成功。

In the Americas, Otis will modernize 21 elevators at the One America Tower in Indianapolis, expanding our long-term relationship with this customer. Otis provided the original elevators for the buildings in the 1980s, modernized them in 2009, and is the current maintenance provider. Otis will upgrade controls, doors, signals, and cab finishes on the elevators.

在美洲，奧的斯將對印第安納波利斯一號美國大廈的 21 部電梯進行現代化改造，擴大我們與該客戶的長期合作關係。奧的斯公司於 20 世紀 80 年代為這些建築提供了原始電梯，並於 2009 年對其進行了現代化改造，目前是其維護提供者。奧的斯將升級電梯的控制裝置、門、信號裝置和轎廂裝飾。

In Dubai, we continue to strengthen and grow our relationship with DAMAC properties, one of the leading luxury real estate developers. Our latest agreement to supply and install 20 SkyRise elevators at DAMAC Bay 2 in Dubai Harbor brings our total orders with DAMAC to 88 elevators. This includes 72 SkyRise and 16 Gen2 systems across six high-rise projects in the city. These orders reflect the trust DAMAC places in our technology and service and they underscore our growing footprint in the Middle East.

在杜拜，我們繼續加強和發展與領先的豪華房地產開發商之一達馬克房地產的關係。我們最新達成的協議是為迪拜港的 DAMAC Bay 2 供應和安裝 20 部 SkyRise 電梯，這使我們與 DAMAC 的訂單總數達到 88 部電梯。其中包括該市六個高層項目的 72 個 SkyRise 系統和 16 個 Gen2 系統。這些訂單反映了達馬克對我們的技術和服務的信任，也凸顯了我們在中東地區日益增長的影響力。

In China, Otis recently entered into a contract for more than 400 escalators and connected elevators to support metro and infrastructure expansion projects in Hangzhou, Changchun, and Tianjin. These orders reflect our ongoing role in supporting urban mobility across key cities.

在中國，奧的斯近期簽訂了400多台自動扶梯和聯網電梯的合同，以支持杭州、長春和天津的地鐵和基礎設施擴建項目。這些訂單反映了我們在支持主要城市的城市交通方面持續發揮的作用。

And in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Otis has been selected to install and maintain SkyRise and Gen3 elevator systems at the Cross, a 39-story premium mixed-use development in the city central business district. These units will be supported by our Compass 360 and EMS Panorama 2.0 management system, delivering a modern integrated solution for enhanced passenger experience.

在越南胡志明市，奧的斯被選中為該市中央商務區 39 層高級混合用途開發項目 Cross 安裝和維護 SkyRise 和 Gen3 電梯系統。這些裝置將由我們的 Compass 360 和 EMS Panorama 2.0 管理系統提供支持，提供現代化的整合解決方案，增強乘客體驗。

Turning to our second-quarter results on slide 5. Otis delivered net sales of $3.6 billion, flat on a year-over-year basis with organic sales down 2%. Adjusted operating project -- profit margin was flat versus the prior year at 17%. Excluding a $13 million foreign exchange tailwind, adjusted operating profit decreased 2% with growth in service offset by a decline in new equipment.

我們來看看投影片 5 的第二季業績。奧的斯淨銷售額為 36 億美元，與去年同期持平，有機銷售額下降 2%。調整後的經營項目－利潤率與前一年持平，為17%。不計入 1,300 萬美元的外匯順風因素，調整後的營業利潤下降了 2%，服務成長被新設備下降所抵銷。

Adjusted EPS declined 1% or $0.01 in the quarter, driven by a tough year-over-year comparison from an operational and tax standpoint. As I previously mentioned, EPS grew 2% in the first half of the year. Adjusted free cash flow was $243 million in the quarter and $429 million year to date.

本季調整後每股收益下降 1% 或 0.01 美元，原因是從營運和稅收角度來看，與去年同期相比，調整後每股收益下降了 1%。正如我之前提到的，今年上半年每股盈餘成長了 2%。本季調整後的自由現金流為 2.43 億美元，年初至今調整後的自由現金流為 4.29 億美元。

With that, I'll turn it over to Cristina to walk through our results in more detail.

接下來，我將把話題交給克里斯蒂娜，讓她更詳細地介紹我們的成果。

Thank you, Judy. Starting with service on slide 6. Service organic sales grew 4%, with growth in all lines of business. Maintenance and repair organic sales grew 4%, driven by growth in our portfolio and positive price of 3% in maintenance, partially offset by mix and churn. Our repair business accelerated in the second quarter as anticipated, growing 6% organically year-over-year compared to 1% in the first quarter.

謝謝你，朱迪。從投影片 6 上的服務開始。服務有機銷售額成長 4%，所有業務線均成長。維護和維修有機銷售額成長 4%，這得益於我們產品組合的成長和維護 3% 的正價格，但部分被產品組合和客戶流失所抵消。我們的維修業務在第二季度如預期般加速發展，與第一季的 1% 相比，有機成長了 6%。

We are pleased with our progress and with our backlog up 8% at quarter end, we are well positioned heading into the second half. Modernization organic sales grew 5% with notable growth in China, which increased over 20%. While modernization organic sales growth was muted, this was primarily driven by timing of several large projects, which can vary from quarter to quarter.

我們對我們的進展感到滿意，我們的積壓訂單在季度末增加了 8%，我們為進入下半年做好了準備。現代化有機銷售額成長了 5%，其中中國市場成長顯著，增幅超過 20%。雖然現代化有機銷售成長放緩，但這主要是由於幾個大型專案的時機所致，而這些專案的時機每個季度都可能有所不同。

Our modernization backlog remains strong, up 16% at constant currency at quarter end, and we expect approximately 10% growth in modernization sales for the full year. Service operating profit of $578 million, increased $26 million at constant currency with higher volume, favorable pricing and productivity, including the benefits from UpLift, more than offsetting higher labor costs and mix and churn.

我們的現代化積壓訂單依然強勁，按季末固定匯率計算成長了 16%，我們預計全年現代化銷售額將成長約 10%。服務營運利潤為 5.78 億美元，以固定匯率計算增加了 2,600 萬美元，這得益於更高的銷售、更優惠的價格和更高的生產力（包括 UpLift 帶來的好處），足以抵消更高的勞動力成本和產品組合及客戶流失。

Operating profit margins expanded 20 basis points to 24.9% in the quarter, making another record quarter in service margins since the spin.

本季營業利益率擴大 20 個基點至 24.9%，創下分拆以來服務利潤率的另一個新高。

Turning to new equipment on slide 7. New equipment organic sales declined 11% in the quarter as the strength in EMEA was more than offset by declines in China, Americas, and Asia Pacific. EMEA sales grew 7%, primarily due to strength in the Middle East, which grew greater than 20% while Europe was up low single digits.

前往投影片 7 上的新裝置。本季新設備有機銷售額下降 11%，因為歐洲、中東和非洲地區的強勁表現被中國、美洲和亞太地區的下滑所抵消。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額成長了 7%，這主要得益於中東地區的強勁成長，該地區的銷售額成長了 20% 以上，而歐洲的銷售額僅成長了個位數。

Asia Pacific declined low single digits, with notable strength in Hong Kong and Taiwan, offset by weakness in Korea. Additionally, growth was negatively impacted by timing of project execution in India. However, the backlog in India remains strong.

亞太地區呈現低個位數下滑，其中香港和台灣表現強勁，但韓國表現疲軟。此外，印度計畫實施時間也對成長產生了負面影響。然而，印度的積壓訂單仍然很多。

Americas declined high single digits as we work through last year backlog, but in addition, backlog execution has been slower due to market concerns around global trade policy. China remained weak, declining greater than 20% as soft market conditions, a strict credit control on segments, and a declining backlog continued to impact our results.

由於我們處理去年的積壓訂單，美洲的訂單量下降了高個位數，此外，由於市場對全球貿易政策的擔憂，積壓訂單的執行速度也較慢。中國市場依然疲軟，下滑超過 20%，原因是市場環境疲軟、對各部門的嚴格信貸控制以及積壓訂單減少繼續影響我們的業績。

New equipment operating profit of $68 million declined $41 million at constant currency, driven by lower volumes and unfavorable price and mix. Operating profit margins declined 240 basis points to 5.3%, driven by the headwinds of lower volume and regional mix that were partially offset by productivity including the benefits from UpLift and our China transformation.

新設備營業利潤為 6,800 萬美元，以固定匯率計算下降了 4,100 萬美元，原因是銷量下降以及價格和產品組合不利。營業利潤率下降 240 個基點至 5.3%，這主要是由於銷量下降和區域結構變化帶來的不利因素，但被生產力提高（包括 UpLift 和中國轉型帶來的好處）所部分抵消。

I will now turn it back to Judy to discuss our 2025 outlook.

現在我將把話題轉回給朱迪，討論我們 2025 年的展望。

Starting on slide 8 with the market outlook. Before discussing our updated 2025 outlook, I'd like to briefly discuss our global market expectations, which are largely unchanged. We continue to expect a low single-digit decline in the Americas. However, we are beginning to see trends improving sequentially. Our market outlook for EMEA is unchanged with low single-digit growth.

從第 8 張投影片開始介紹市場前景。在討論我們最新的 2025 年展望之前，我想簡要討論一下我們的全球市場預期，這些預期基本上沒有變化。我們仍然預計美洲的降幅將保持在個位數以下。然而，我們開始看到趨勢正在逐步改善。我們對 EMEA 市場的展望保持不變，仍將維持低個位數成長。

Asia is now anticipated to decline high single digits. This is driven by mid-single-digit growth in Asia Pacific, offset by a low teens decline in China. Our outlook for China is now slightly lower than our beginning-of-year expectation due to continued softness in the market.

目前預計亞洲的經濟成長將出現高個位數的下滑。這是由亞太地區中位數個位數成長所推動的，但被中國低十幾個百分點的下降所抵銷。由於市場持續疲軟，我們對中國的展望目前略低於年初的預期。

While year-over-year comparisons are easier in the second half, we now believe the market will be down approximately 10% for the remainder of the year. Taken together, we expect the global new equipment market to decline mid-single digits in 2025.

雖然下半年的同比數據更容易比較，但我們現在認為今年剩餘時間市場將下跌約 10%。綜合來看，我們預期 2025 年全球新設備市場將出現中等個位數的下滑。

On the service side, we continue to expect the global installed base to grow mid-single digits, driven by low single-digit growth in Americas and EMEA and mid-single-digit growth in Asia. This growing installed base should further support growth in our maintenance portfolio and expand our service flywheel.

在服務方面，我們繼續預計全球安裝基數將實現中等個位數成長，這得益於美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的低個位數成長以及亞洲的中等個位數成長。不斷增長的安裝基礎應進一步支援我們維護組合的成長並擴大我們的服務飛輪。

Turning to our financial outlook for 2025. We now expect net sales of $14.5 billion to $14.6 billion, a slight decline from our previous outlook, driven primarily by a lower outlook for new equipment sales. This is largely driven by the new equipment market environment in China and the US. In China, market conditions have remained soft as liquidity challenges are causing a slowdown in execution of our backlog.

談談我們對 2025 年的財務展望。我們現在預計淨銷售額為 145 億美元至 146 億美元，較先前的預測略有下降，主要原因是新設備銷售前景下降。這在很大程度上受到中國和美國新設備市場環境的推動。在中國，由於流動性挑戰導致我們積壓訂單的執行速度放緩，市場狀況依然疲軟。

In the US, continued uncertainty over global trade policies are causing project delays. That said, we have driven low teens or greater order growth in the Americas for four consecutive quarters, and our backlog remains strong there, up 5% at the end of the quarter. This backlog positions us well as we head into 2026. And as you know, our resilient service business is relatively insulated from tariffs. This resilient business is our core earnings driver representing approximately 90% of our total operating profit.

在美國，全球貿易政策的持續不確定性導致專案延誤。話雖如此，我們已連續四個季度推動美洲地區的訂單量保持低十幾個百分點或更高水平的增長，而且我們的積壓訂單量依然強勁，在本季度末增長了 5%。當我們邁入 2026 年時，這些積壓訂單為我們做好了準備。如您所知，我們的彈性服務業務相對不受關稅影響。這項具有韌性的業務是我們的核心獲利驅動力，約占我們總營業利潤的 90%。

Looking ahead, we expect our service organic sales growth to continue to ramp up through the remainder of the year. Our outlook for adjusted operating profit is unchanged at $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion, up $55 million to $105 million on an actual currency basis including the impact of incremental US tariffs imposed in 2025. This is in line with our prior outlook as reduced reciprocal tariff rates for China and favorable foreign exchange rates offset lower expectations for our new equipment profit this year.

展望未來，我們預計我們的服務有機銷售額成長將在今年剩餘時間內繼續上升。我們對調整後營業利潤的預期保持不變，為 24 億美元至 25 億美元，如果計入 2025 年美國加徵關稅的影響，則按實際貨幣計算將增加 5500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元。這與我們先前的預測一致，因為中國降低的互惠關稅稅率和有利的外匯匯率抵消了我們今年新設備利潤的較低預期。

Service profitability should remain strong from growth in all three areas of the business: maintenance, repair, and modernization. Our outlook for adjusted EPS is unchanged at $4.00 to $4.10 per share, representing an increase of 4% to 7% compared to 2024. We expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for the year, which we expect to largely return to our shareholders through our dividend and $800 million of share repurchases.

服務獲利能力應能保持強勁，這得益於業務所有三個領域的成長：維護、維修和現代化。我們對調整後每股收益的預期保持不變，為每股 4.00 美元至 4.10 美元，與 2024 年相比增長 4% 至 7%。我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流將在 14 億美元至 15 億美元之間，我們預計這筆資金將主要透過股利和 8 億美元的股票回購返還給股東。

Note, we are well on track to meet our share repurchase target having bought back approximately $550 million year-to-date through June.

請注意，我們預計將實現股票回購目標，截至今年 6 月，我們已回購約 5.5 億美元。

I'll now pass it back to Cristina to review the 2025 outlook in more detail.

我現在將其交還給克里斯蒂娜，讓她更詳細地回顧一下 2025 年的展望。

Thank you, Judy. Moving to our organic sales outlook on slide 9. We now expect organic sales growth of approximately 1% for the year. This is driven by continued strength in service with organic growth of approximately 5%, partially offset by a decline in new equipment of approximately 7%. Within new equipment, we have lowered our outlook for Americas to down high single digits and Asia to down low teens due to the macroeconomic concerns Judy previously noted.

謝謝你，朱迪。轉到幻燈片 9 上的自然銷售前景。我們現在預計今年的有機銷售額成長率約為 1%。這是由服務業務持續強勁成長所推動的，服務業務有機成長約 5%，但新設備數量下降約 7% 則部分抵消了這一成長。在新設備方面，由於朱迪之前提到的宏觀經濟擔憂，我們已將美洲的預期下調至高個位數，將亞洲的預期下調至低十幾位。

Within Asia, we expect a strong growth in Asia Pacific, offset by a greater than 20% decline in China. We continue to expect EMEA to grow mid-single digits for the year. Within service, we continue to expect growth in all segments through the remainder of the year.

在亞洲，我們預計亞太地區將出現強勁成長，但中國地區將出現超過 20% 的下降。我們仍然預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區今年的成長率將達到中等個位數。在服務領域，我們預計今年剩餘時間內所有部門都將成長。

Maintenance and repair is expected to grow approximately 5%, driven by portfolio growth and pricing, partially offset by mix and churn. We saw solid acceleration in our repair revenue in the second quarter, and we expect continued acceleration through the second half. In modernization, we are anticipating approximately 10% organic growth as we execute our strong backlog.

維護和維修預計將成長約 5%，這主要受到產品組合成長和定價的推動，但部分被產品組合和客戶流失所抵消。我們的維修收入在第二季度穩定成長，預計下半年將持續成長。在現代化方面，隨著我們執行大量積壓工作，我們預計有機成長約為 10%。

Turning to slide 10 to provide an update on tariffs. While circumstances remain fluid, our anticipated tariff exposure has meaningfully declined from expectations in April. This is driven by more favorable reciprocal tariff rates as well as our successful mitigation strategies.

翻到第 10 張投影片來提供有關關稅的最新資訊。儘管情況仍不明朗，但我們預期的關稅風險較 4 月的預期已大幅下降。這是由更優惠的互惠關稅稅率以及我們成功的緩解策略所推動的。

Given these changes, we now expect an approximately $25 million to $35 million negative impact to our 2025 earnings net of our mitigation efforts. Note that this impact is primarily expected in the second half as the year-to-date impact has been minimal.

鑑於這些變化，我們目前預計，扣除我們的緩解措施後，我們的 2025 年收益將受到約 2500 萬至 3500 萬美元的負面影響。請注意，這種影響主要預計在下半年出現，因為今年迄今為止的影響很小。

As a reminder, our tariff exposure is primarily in our backlog as we have adjusted contract terms and pricing for the current environment. Therefore, after execution of the backlog, the impact of the new tariffs on our results should be offset by pricing and contract language.

提醒一下，我們的關稅風險主要在於積壓訂單，因為我們已根據當前環境調整了合約條款和定價。因此，在執行積壓訂單後，新關稅對我們業績的影響應該被定價和合約語言所抵消。

Turning to our financial outlook on slide 11. We currently expect adjusted operating profit to grow $55 million to $105 million, on an actual currency basis, including the impacts of tariffs. This growth is driven by the strength of our Service segment as well as cost savings from UpLift and our China transformation.

轉向第 11 張投影片上的財務展望。我們目前預計，以實際貨幣計算，包括關稅的影響，調整後的營業利潤將增加 5,500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元。這一成長得益於我們服務部門的強勁表現以及 UpLift 和中國轉型帶來的成本節約。

Adjusted operating margin is expected to expand 30 basis points driven by expanding service margins and mix, offset by declining new equipment margins from tariffs as well as the flow-through of last year's backlog and regional mix.

預計調整後的營業利潤率將擴大 30 個基點，這主要得益於服務利潤率和產品組合的擴大，但被關稅導致的新設備利潤率下降以及去年積壓訂單和區域組合的影響所抵消。

Adjusted free cash flow is now expected to be between $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for the year. The decline from our previous forecast is primarily driven by our reduced outlook for new equipment sales as well as the impact of the mix. As new equipment sales are more favorable to working capital, we continue to anticipate approximately $800 million of share repurchases for the year.

目前預計全年調整後的自由現金流將在 14 億美元至 15 億美元之間。與我們先前的預測相比，銷售下降主要是因為我們對新設備銷售前景的預期下降，以及產品組合的影響。由於新設備銷售對營運資金更有利，我們繼續預期今年的股票回購額約為 8 億美元。

Moving to the 2025 EPS bridge on slide 12. Our adjusted EPS outlook for the year remains $4.00 to $4.10 per share. This represents 4% to 7% growth compared to the prior year driven by strong operational growth from our Service segment. The new equipment segment remains a headwind due to soft economic conditions in China and the impact of global trade policy in the US.

前往投影片 12 上的 2025 EPS 橋接器。我們對今年調整後的每股盈餘預期仍為 4.00 美元至 4.10 美元。與前一年相比，這一成長幅度為 4% 至 7%，這得益於我們服務部門強勁的營運成長。由於中國經濟疲軟以及美國全球貿易政策的影響，新設備領域仍面臨阻力。

Favorable foreign exchange rates and a lower share count are expected to offset the impact of tariffs and a higher interest expense. And while conditions remain challenging for our new equipment business in the near term, our US backlog is growing, and China orders are expected to stabilize in the coming quarters. And furthermore, the resiliency of our service business continues to drive earnings on the back of mid-single-digit top line growth and continued margin expansion.

有利的外匯匯率和較低的股票數量預計將抵消關稅和更高的利息支出的影響。儘管短期內我們的新設備業務仍然面臨挑戰，但我們在美國的積壓訂單正在增加，預計中國訂單將在未來幾季趨於穩定。此外，在中等個位數營收成長和利潤率持續擴大的推動下，我們服務業務的彈性持續推動獲利成長。

We are also continuing to execute our UpLift and China transformation initiatives, which will allow us to better serve our customers while driving $240 million of run rate cost savings by year-end. We have good line of sight to deliver our targeted savings and as UpLift is approaching the end of the program in the second half of the year. We are making good progress with our China transformation, and as I previously mentioned, we are raising our cost savings target to $40 million due to additional restructuring actions underway.

我們也將繼續實施 UpLift 和中國轉型計劃，這將使我們能夠更好地服務客戶，同時在年底實現 2.4 億美元的營運成本節約。我們有很好的前景來實現我們的目標節約，而 UpLift 計劃即將在今年下半年結束。我們在中國市場的轉型進展順利，正如我之前提到的，由於正在進行的額外重組行動，我們將成本節約目標提高到 4000 萬美元。

Looking at the third quarter, we expect new equipment organic sales growth roughly in line with our full year guidance with sequentially lower margins in the quarter. This margin pressure is due to lower volumes but will be more acute in the third quarter. This is due to the execution of cost mitigating actions such as the temporary furlough of some of our production facilities.

展望第三季度，我們預期新設備有機銷售額成長與我們的全年預期大致一致，但本季利潤率將較上季下降。利潤壓力是由於銷量下降造成的，但在第三季將更加嚴重。這是由於我們採取了降低成本的措施，例如暫時關閉部分生產設施。

Service organic sales are expected to ramp to around 5%, and we anticipate solid year-over-year margin expansion with positive contribution from UpLift as we execute the last wave of the program. Taken together, we expect the third quarter adjusted EPS growth of around 5%, followed by a strong fourth quarter to deliver 6% full year growth at the midpoint of our guide.

服務有機銷售額預計將增長至 5% 左右，隨著我們執行該計劃的最後一波，我們預計利潤率將同比穩步增長，而 UpLift 也將帶來積極貢獻。綜合來看，我們預計第三季調整後每股盈餘成長率約為 5%，第四季將表現強勁，全年成長率將達到 6%，達到我們預期的中位數。

With that, I will kindly ask Tina to please open the line for questions. Thank you.

好了，我懇請蒂娜開通熱線來回答大家的提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Sprague, Virtual Research (sic - Vertical Research)

（操作員指令）Jeff Sprague，虛擬研究（原文如此——垂直研究）

Judy, I wonder if you could just maybe unpack service growth a little bit more for us in the spirit of my question is, I think we've got two quarters in a row here now where service revenue growth organically is equal to portfolio growth where historically revenues outperformed portfolio growth.

朱迪，我想知道您是否可以為我們更詳細地解釋一下服務增長情況，我的問題是，我認為我們現在已經連續兩個季度出現服務收入有機增長等於投資組合增長的情況，而歷史上收入增長超過了投資組合增長。

So you mentioned churn and mix. I guess I'm particularly interested in churn and this kind of economic period of uncertainty, are you seeing leakage and retention or really what's going on underneath the surface there?

所以你提到了攪拌和混合。我想我特別感興趣的是客戶流失和這種經濟不確定時期，您是否看到了洩漏和保留，或者表面之下到底發生了什麼？

Yeah. Thanks, Jeff. Good morning. Apologies about your name. So listen, the service is continuing to perform. We're going to be -- maintenance and organic sales were up 4%. It was driven by 4% growth in the portfolio. We did have positive service pricing, like-for-like pricing increased 3 points in the quarter. That's a little lower than we had in previous years, but inflation is not as high in certain parts of the world.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。早安.抱歉，關於你的名字。所以聽著，服務正在繼續執行。我們將—維護和有機銷售額將成長 4%。這是由投資組合 4% 的成長所推動的。我們確實有積極的服務定價，本季同類定價上漲了 3 個百分點。這比前幾年略低，但世界某些地區的通貨膨脹率卻不那麼高。

In the developed mature markets, the service pricing performance was really excellent EMEA was up low single. Our Americas team drove mid-single-digit pricing. So really pleased with that. The main changes, the two elements I'd call your attention to this quarter versus last quarter, repair sales snapped back. They were 1% in first quarter.

在已開發成熟市場中，服務定價表現確實非常出色，而 EMEA 則處於低點。我們的美洲團隊推動了中位數個位數的定價。我對此非常高興。與上一季相比，本季我想提請大家注意的主要變化有兩個，維修銷售額迅速回升。第一季這一比例為1%。

This quarter, they're 6% and we anticipate incrementally that to increase in the third quarter and even more in the fourth quarter. Our repair backlog is up 8%. So we've got good backlog to work on as we look through the remainder of the year.

本季的增幅為 6%，我們預計第三季的增幅將逐步增加，第四季的增幅將更大。我們的維修積壓量增加了8%。因此，展望今年剩餘時間，我們還有很多積壓的工作要做。

Mod revenue was down to 5%, and that was a combination of a lot of major projects that we had won. You saw our mod orders are up 22%, really phenomenal performance, three of our four regions up 20%. And the US-Canada team, our North America team mod orders were up over 50% this quarter. So they have continued to drive significant growth.

Mod 收入下降到了 5%，這是我們贏得的許多重大項目造成的。您會看到我們的 mod 訂單增加了 22%，這真是驚人的表現，我們四個地區中有三個地區增加了 20%。而美國-加拿大團隊，我們的北美團隊的 mod 訂單本季成長了 50% 以上。因此他們繼續推動著顯著的成長。

Now we've got to convert it. It's a fair expectation, and we have the expectation that, that will grow to 10% over the next two quarters for mod revenue because our backlog is at 16%. So it was a combination of major projects and some other items, but it's not a resourcing issue with us. So that's why we took the guide, the outlook down to 5% for year-end.

現在我們必須轉換它。這是一個合理的預期，我們預計，未來兩個季度，mod 收入將成長至 10%，因為我們的積壓訂單量為 16%。所以它是重大專案和一些其他專案的組合，但對我們來說這不是資源問題。這就是為什麼我們將年底的預期下調至 5%。

We're at 4% through the first half you're going to see an incremental step-up as we go through third quarter, and then you'll see even more in fourth quarter. I've got full confidence in the service flywheel. We're seeing it everywhere. We're seeing the portfolio growth sustain itself at 4% now for almost -- for multiple years.

上半年的成長率為 4%，進入第三季後，你會看到成長率逐步上升，而第四季則會看到更高的成長率。我對服務飛輪充滿信心。我們隨處可見它。我們看到投資組合成長率幾乎已經維持在 4% 左右了。

And I think you're going to see that -- I know you're going to see that come through in the next two quarters. The operating profit shows that service impact. As Cristina mentioned, we had a record since spin, 24.9% operating margin in service, and that will continue to drive our growth in operating profit as we go through. And we've had operating profit now in service. This is the 21st straight quarter. So you're going to continue to see that.

我認為你們會看到這一點——我知道你們會在接下來的兩個季度看到這一點。營業利潤體現了服務的影響。正如克里斯蒂娜所提到的，自分拆以來，我們的營業利潤率創下了 24.9% 的紀錄，這將繼續推動我們的營業利潤成長。現在我們已經透過服務實現了營業利潤。這是連續第 21 季。所以你將會繼續看到這一點。

But we know what the growth story on top line, we own that, and you will see that as we go through the second half of the year.

但我們知道營收的成長故事，我們擁有它，當我們度過下半年時，您就會看到這一點。

Thanks for that. But just to be clear then, I mean, if units are up 4% and service prices up 3%, the fact that organic revenues are only up 4% is a function of new equipment mix, project-related stuff you're talking about? Or is it retention?

謝謝。但需要明確的是，如果單位數量上漲 4%，服務價格上漲 3%，那麼有機收入僅上漲 4% 是否與新設備組合有關，您說的是與項目相關的東西？還是保留？

No. Retention actually was slightly better in the second quarter than the first quarter, but it's a mix and churn effect because as the portfolio grows, the mix is it's growing more in the less mature markets, which have lower contribution, especially in China, where we're growing in the teens. So it's really a mix and churn effect there. And then as you know, even with the units that when we lose them and we don't retain them and replace them with a recapture, that does come at a lower margin and a lower price.

不。實際上，第二季度的留存率略好於第一季度，但這是一種混合和客戶流失效應，因為隨著投資組合的增長，在不太成熟的市場中，混合的增長更快，而這些市場的貢獻較低，尤其是在中國，我們的增長率只有十幾歲。因此這確實是一種混合和流失效應。然後，正如你所知，即使我們失去了這些單位，我們也不會保留它們，而是重新奪回它們來代替它們，這確實會帶來較低的利潤和較低的價格。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Got my name right. That's encouraging.

我的名字沒錯。這令人鼓舞。

Just on the retention, Judy. I know you said it improved slightly Q over Q and maybe -- you could maybe just put a final point and quantify that. But I'm just curious really on -- it sounds to me like you're pointing to new equipment orders inflecting in the Americas. Just given the continued drag on multifamily, it's surprising to see that. I'm curious what you are seeing the pockets of growth in the Americas.

只是關於保留，朱迪。我知道您說過 Q 比 Q 略有改善，也許——您可以提出一個最終觀點並量化這一點。但我真的很好奇——在我看來，您指的是美洲的新設備訂單。考慮到多戶型住宅持續受到拖累，出現這種情況確實令人驚訝。我很好奇您如何看待美洲的成長點。

And then maybe just touch on China as well. I think you said you expect year-over-year growth in the coming quarters. So just curious if that's just easier comps or are we seeing some benefit from the stimulus assets in China?

然後也許還會談及中國。我想您說過您預計未來幾季將實現同比增長。所以我只是好奇這只是更容易的比較，還是我們看到了中國刺激資產的一些好處？

Yeah. So Nigel, we will provide all the retention data once a year. So you'll -- that part, I won't elaborate on. In terms of the US, as I said, fourth strong quarter with teens growth. North America was up 15% in new equipment orders.

是的。所以 Nigel，我們每年會提供一次所有保留資料。所以你會——那部分，我不會詳細說明。就美國而言，正如我所說，第四季度青少年人數增長強勁。北美新設備訂單成長了15%。

This quarter, we saw some contraction in Latin America, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, but North America is so much more of our business, as you know, in the Americas, really strong performance in infrastructure. We saw resi was flat this quarter.

本季度，我們看到拉丁美洲、巴西、墨西哥、智利的業務有所萎縮，但北美對我們的業務影響更大，正如你所知，美洲的基礎建設表現非常強勁。我們看到本季的房地產市場持平。

So when we talk about multifamily, our orders were flat year over year. So I view that actually as positive versus the kind of pullback we had seen in multifamily over the past few quarters. And then commercial was down.

因此，當我們談論多戶住宅時，我們的訂單與去年同期持平。因此，我認為這實際上是積極的，相對於過去幾季我們在多戶型住宅中看到的回調。然後商業就下滑了。

And so again, it was a strong infrastructure job, a lot of major projects and a lot of volume business, too. And I couldn't be really more pleased with our performance in North America, really strong four quarters in a row after almost six quarters where we had orders contraction, which is the backlog we're living through in new equipment in North America. So that's strong.

所以，這又是一項強大的基礎設施工作，有很多重大項目和大量業務。我對我們在北美的表現感到非常滿意，在經歷了近六個季度的訂單萎縮（也就是我們在北美新設備方面積壓的訂單）之後，我們連續四個季度表現強勁。所以這很強大。

In China, listen, the new equipment market, it does remain weak, down 15% first and second quarter, and we see it improving to 10% in the second half. The comps will help but there was not a single vertical in the second quarter that grew nor a single tier city that grew in the second quarter.

在中國，新設備市場確實仍然疲軟，第一季和第二季下降了 15%，我們預計下半年將回升至 10%。可比較數據會有所幫助，但第二季沒有垂直產業成長，也沒有一線城市成長。

Tier 1 did better than the others, but none of them grew. So the best verticals in China for the second quarter for us were infrastructure and industrial buildings, which are becoming more stable, but both commercial and office were down double digit, and resi was down high teens to double digit. So that market is still stressed. But again, now it's about sequential, and looking at how we can perform quarter over quarter.

第一層的表現優於其他層，但沒有一個層級實現成長。因此，對我們來說，中國第二季度表現最好的垂直行業是基礎設施和工業建築，這兩個行業正在變得更加穩定，但商業和辦公大樓都出現了兩位數的下降，而住宅則出現了高兩位數的下降。因此該市場仍面臨壓力。但現在我們要再次強調，我們必須按順序執行，並專注於我們如何逐季度地取得成效。

We focused in new equipment in China really on value, really two things: value, in terms of -- because it's very competitive and the prices are very, very, very low. So we focus on value and then we focus on our ability to retain in our service portfolio. and where there was other opportunities for margin or for volume where we weren't going to get any margin or get the service attachment rate, we walked away from those.

我們在中國的新設備真正關注的是價值，實際上有兩點：價值，因為它非常具有競爭力，而且價格非常非常低。因此，我們專注於價值，然後我們專注於保留我們的服務組合的能力。當有其他利潤或銷售機會而我們無法獲得任何利潤或獲得服務附加率時，我們放棄了這些機會。

So I think our team is being very disciplined to be in a much better place in terms of our backlog, and you look at our new equipment backlog for the company. So our new equipment orders decreased 1%. But if you take out China, the other three regions were up 11%.

因此，我認為我們的團隊非常自律，在積壓訂單方面處於更好的狀態，您可以看看我們公司的新設備積壓訂單。因此我們的新設備訂單減少了1%。但若除去中國，其他三個地區的漲幅則達 11%。

If you look at our backlog for new equipment, even though it declined 3%, if you take China out, we're up 8%. So I'm actually very encouraged for rest of world ex China. China stabilizes and rest of world is growing now almost our backlog is up high single digit at 8%.

如果你看我們的新設備積壓訂單，儘管下降了 3%，但如果不考慮中國，我們的新設備積壓訂單則增加了 8%。因此，我實際上對中國以外的世界其他地區感到非常鼓舞。中國趨於穩定，世界其他地區也正在成長，我們的積壓訂單量幾乎達到了 8% 的高個位數。

Okay. That's great. That's great color. And then a quick follow-on is, I think, for Cristina. So it seems like your 3Q and this point is like $1 per share of earnings. I think the midpoint implies a step-up in earnings from 3Q to 4Q, that'd be quite unusual. So just wondering how we should be phasing we think about the second half and thinking about that step-up in earnings in the fourth quarter.

好的。那太棒了。顏色真棒。接下來我想快速跟進一下克里斯蒂娜。因此看起來您的第三季和這一點相當於每股收益 1 美元。我認為中點意味著從第三季到第四季的收益會增加，這將是相當不尋常的。所以我只是想知道我們應該如何分階段考慮下半年以及考慮第四季收益的成長。

Nigel, thank you very much for the question. So let me give you some color on Q3 outlook but also the calendarization between Q3 and Q4.

奈傑爾，非常感謝你的提問。因此，讓我向您介紹一下第三季的前景以及第三季和第四季之間的日曆。

So starting with Q3 on the new equipment side, we expect revenues to be in line with the midpoint of the guide around minus 7%, with margin sequentially down, margin will be around 3% for new equipment in the quarter. The reason being is because we are anticipating the volumes drop in the second half, and we are executing cost mitigating actions. Among others, we will implement lowing some production facilities. That will mean that the volume so fall will be more acute in Q3, and we'll come back to regular level in Q4.

因此，從第三季的新設備方面開始，我們預計收入將與指南的中點一致，約為-7％，利潤率將連續下降，本季新設備的利潤率將在 3％ 左右。原因是我們預計下半年銷售量會下降，因此我們正在採取降低成本的措施。其中包括降低一些生產設施。這意味著第三季的銷售下降幅度將更加劇烈，而第四季銷售將恢復到正常水平。

On the service side, however, as Judy said, we are accelerating execution, both on repair and modernization. They are going to be around 8% growth in the quarter. And we have very good line of sight to execute repair because our ending backlog in Q2 was around 8%. So it's the execution of the backlog. And margin is going to go up sequentially too. We also have an easier compared to Q3 last year.

然而，在服務方面，正如朱迪所說，我們正在加速執行，包括維修和現代化。本季的成長率預計在 8% 左右。而且我們有很好的視線來執行修復，因為我們第二季的期末積壓量約為 8%。所以這是積壓工作的執行。利潤率也將隨之上升。與去年第三季相比，我們也更加輕鬆。

So total operating profit will be around 2% up and EPS will be around 5% up. That means that for the calendarization of EPS growth in the year will be $0.03 first half, $0.05 Q3, and around $0.14 Q4. So it is kind of a backloaded profile.

因此總營業利潤將成長約 2%，每股收益將成長約 5%。這意味著，今年上半年 EPS 成長率將為 0.03 美元，第三季為 0.05 美元，第四季約 0.14 美元。所以它是一種後載設定檔。

And the growth in Q4 is based upon three areas. One is on the new equipment side, we expect a better stabilization in China in terms of segments coming from better liquidity conditions in the market, but we also have an easier compare in China versus Q4 last year.

第四季的成長基於三個領域。一方面，在新設備方面，我們預期中國市場在各個細分市場將更加穩定，因為市場流動性條件會更好，但與去年第四季相比，我們對中國市場的比較也更加容易。

So new equipment contribution in Q4 will be back to normal levels around $70 million in the quarter. And on the service side, we expect an additional acceleration of repair and mod will be around low mid-teens in the quarter that implies for repair a ramp-up in orders but also ramp up in execution. And we do have the resources. You may recall that last year, we hired around 2,000 mechanics. Those mechanics are productive now.

因此，第四季度新設備貢獻將恢復到正常水平，約為 7000 萬美元。在服務方面，我們預計本季維修和改裝的額外加速將達到十幾歲左右，這意味著維修訂單將增加，執行量也將增加。我們確實擁有資源。您可能還記得，去年我們僱用了大約 2,000 名機械師。這些機制現在很有成效。

And we are also, this year, selectively hiring in those countries where we see further growth potential of the backlog. And on the mod side, it will be around 15%. This is based upon the acceleration of mod in China on what we call the bond projects. These are the governmental subsidies.

今年，我們也將在那些我們認為積壓訂單有進一步成長潛力的國家選擇性地招募員工。而在模組方面，這一比例將在 15% 左右。這是基於中國加快我們所說的債券項目改革。這些是政府補貼。

And you may recall that last year, we had a similar acceleration because the subsidies come to an end at the end of the year, so they need to be used. And this year, we are planning to do the same with a bigger scale because the program this year is bigger, it's around 100,000 units, versus 40,000 units last year.

您可能還記得，去年我們也經歷了類似的加速，因為補貼在年底就結束了，所以需要使用它們。今年，我們計劃以更大的規模進行同樣的工作，因為今年的專案規模更大，約為 100,000 台，而去年為 40,000 台。

So the acceleration in Q4 is based upon new equipment, repair, and mod.

因此，第四季的加速是基於新設備、維修和改造。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Maybe we could just start with the China transformation savings. You guys are very clear about what you're adding. But I guess, what does that mean for carryover savings into 2026? Is there anything that we should be thinking about next year?

也許我們可以從中國轉型儲蓄開始。你們非常清楚自己添加的內容。但我想，這對 2026 年的結轉儲蓄意味著什麼？明年我們有什麼事情需要考慮嗎？

Yeah. So the China transformation savings at the beginning of the year, we guided $20 million in, $30 million run rate. We are executing according to the plan. We have $5 million in the first half of the year and the remaining $50 million will come in the second half. But because of the more acute decline of volumes, we are taking additional cost reduction actions. That's why we have increased the run rate from $30 million to $40 million. So this is going to be an incremental savings for 2026.

是的。因此，我們年初在中國的轉型節省預計為 2000 萬美元，運行率為 3000 萬美元。我們正在按照計劃執行。我們上半年有 500 萬美元，剩下的 5,000 萬美元將在下半年到帳。但由於銷售下降幅度更大，我們正在採取額外的成本削減措施。這就是我們將運行率從 3000 萬美元提高到 4000 萬美元的原因。因此，這將是 2026 年的增量儲蓄。

And when you step back and you look at our overall picture of new equipment in the year, new equipment sales are going to decline around $400 million versus $450 million last year. This is a very similar decline. In terms of contribution, last year, the decline was $44 million, this year, excluding tariffs, it is an extraordinary effect, we are going to decline $60 million.

如果你回顧我們今年新設備的整體情況，你會發現新設備銷售額將下降約 4 億美元，而去年為 4.5 億美元。這是一個非常相似的下降趨勢。從貢獻來看，去年下降了4400萬美元，今年，除去關稅，這是一個非常大的影響，我們將下降6000萬美元。

This is an incremental decline of $15 million, but we are facing new headwinds. One is the price because price in the backlog in China became negative last year as we deteriorated prices and market deteriorated prices, this is a headwind of around $100 million BPY this year. And the second one is commodities that last year was $20 million positive. This year is flat. But we are only deteriorating incremental $15 million.

這是一個 1500 萬美元的增量下降，但我們正面臨新的阻力。一是價格，因為隨著我們價格和市場價格的下跌，去年中國積壓訂單的價格變為負值，這對今年的損失約為 1 億美元。第二個是商品，去年的利潤為 2000 萬美元。今年持平。但我們只損失了 1500 萬美元。

So this shows you all the cost actions we are taking in new equipment at our UpLift program but also the transformation of China and the usual productivity, material productivity actions. So there is a lot of cost mitigation in the new equipment side.

因此，這向您展示了我們在 UpLift 計劃中對新設備採取的所有成本行動，以及中國的轉型和通常的生產力、材料生產力行動。因此，新設備方面的成本降低了許多。

Yeah. Nicole, let me put this in kind of the business perspective versus just the financials. We made a major organizational transformation change in China as we started the year. We went from basically two separate almost wholly operating companies with very different brands to being more laser-focused on new equipment and modernization together in China for good rationale and service.

是的。妮可，讓我從商業角度而不是財務角度來談這個問題。今年伊始，我們在中國進行了重大的組織變革。我們從基本上兩個擁有不同品牌的獨立且幾乎完全運營的公司轉變為在中國更加專注於新設備和現代化建設，以提供良好的理念和服務。

So we now offer both those brands in service, and we offer both those brands in new equipment and modernization. But now we have the ability to optimize, to have our agents and distributors and our direct sales folks make us more customer centric.

因此，我們現在為這兩個品牌提供服務，並為這兩個品牌提供新設備和現代化設備。但現在我們有能力進行最佳化，讓我們的代理商、經銷商和直銷人員更加以客戶為中心。

So we're going through this transition. And at the same time, obviously, market conditions are a headwind in new equipment, especially service is growing nicely. Modernization is growing very nicely in China, over 20% mod growth in China, over mid-teens portfolio growth in service.

所以我們正在經歷這個轉變。同時，顯然，市場狀況對新設備不利，尤其是服務成長良好。中國的現代化進程非常順利，現代化成長率超過 20%，服務業投資組合成長率超過 15%。

So we are preparing, while we're taking this cost out, we're preparing for and implementing our new China approach to market, which will position us not just for the fourth quarter of this year to get to that stabilization point, but for '26 and beyond to go to market in a different way than we have in the past 20 years.

因此，我們正在做準備，在消除這些成本的同時，我們也在準備和實施我們新的中國市場策略，這將使我們不僅在今年第四季達到穩定點，而且在26年及以後能夠以不同於過去20年的方式進入市場。

Okay. That was a very comprehensive answer. I appreciate that. And then just maybe a quick follow-up. The discussion around 3Q versus 4Q cadence is really helpful. Just one follow-up to that. What about the cadence of free cash flow? Does that look more akin to normal seasonality? Or will it look similar to the earnings profile?

好的。這是一個非常全面的答案。我很感激。然後可能只是快速的跟進。圍繞 3Q 與 4Q 節奏的討論確實很有幫助。對此僅做一次跟進。自由現金流的節奏如何？這看起來更像正常的季節性嗎？或者它看起來與盈利狀況相似嗎？

Yeah. So cash flow in the second half of the year is going to be at the level of the second half in 2024. So we have a good line of sight to deliver as we delivered last year. Cash flow is weaker than what we expected, but it's primarily driven by the business mix. So we have seen new equipment deteriorating further and service remaining strong.

是的。因此，今年下半年的現金流將達到 2024 年下半年的水平。因此，我們對於實現去年的交付目標有著良好的預期。現金流弱於我們的預期，但這主要是由業務組合所驅動的。因此，我們看到新設備進一步惡化，而服務卻依然強勁。

And as you know, new equipment is favorable in working capital because of the advance payments, but also because of billing according to milestones. And for example, in the case of China, we don't ship unless we collect.

而且如您所知，新設備對於營運資金有利，因為有預付款，而且還根據里程碑計費。例如，就中國而言，除非我們收集，否則我們不會發貨。

On the other side, in service, we bill after rendering the survey. So this is a headwind in working capital, but it's a temporary one as we stabilize new equipment. And for the second half of the year, we have good line of sight to deliver the cash flow.

另一方面，在服務方面，我們在完成調查後才開立帳單。因此，這對營運資金來說是一個阻力，但隨著我們穩定新設備，這只是暫時的。對於下半年，我們有良好的預期來實現現金流。

There is another component related to our UpLift transformation. We are transforming our processes while outsourcing our collections areas to a third party. The transition is progressing very smoothly. We are collecting with no disruption in the business. And we are positive that as we end up the transition towards the end of the year, the support of our new partner is going to help us accelerate and optimize collections even further.

還有另一個與我們的 UpLift 轉型相關的組件。我們正在轉變流程，同時將我們的收集領域外包給第三方。過渡進展非常順利。我們的收款工作沒有中斷。我們相信，隨著我們在年底完成過渡，新合作夥伴的支持將幫助我們進一步加快和優化收藏。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you guys just talk about how you're set up into like just mechanically what the backlog would suggest for next year in China? And I'm sorry, did you say that the orders there are looking to improve sequentially now? I didn't quite catch that in the beginning on any.

你們能否簡單談談你們是如何制定計劃的，例如，對於明年在中國的積壓訂單，你們有何建議？抱歉，您說的是那裡的訂單現在正在逐步改善嗎？我一開始並沒有完全理解這一點。

Yeah. The orders will improve sequentially in China. The backlog for -- is actually -- let me just take you through the whole world in terms of backlog and how they're doing. If you look at -- let's start in the Americas, Steve, our backlog as we ended last year was minus 4%, which is obviously where we saw some of the challenges in the revenue this year on new equipment in -- especially in North America, we're ending this quarter up 5% there.

是的。中國的訂單情況將逐步改善。積壓的——實際上是——讓我帶你了解全世界的積壓情況以及他們的表現如何。如果你看一下——讓我們從美洲開始，史蒂夫，截至去年年底，我們的積壓訂單為負 4%，這顯然是我們今年在新設備收入方面面臨的一些挑戰——特別是在北美，我們本季在那裡實現了 5% 的增長。

So that plus the orders we anticipate through the rest of the year position us really well going into '26. Asia Pacific, really strong backlog, double digit. So we're really pleased there. And EMEA will be fine as we enter, especially based on the Middle East in Spain and some other locations.

因此，加上我們預計今年剩餘時間的訂單，我們將在 2026 年取得非常好的成績。亞太地區的積壓訂單量確實非常強勁，達到兩位數。所以我們真的很高興。隨著我們進入歐洲、中東和非洲地區，情況會很好，特別是基於西班牙和中東其他一些地區。

So it leaves us with China backlog, and that's why we've been talking a lot ex China today, China was about 12% of our revenue -- global revenue this year, 10% -- or this quarter, 10% last quarter. So it's still now that smaller contribution.

因此，我們在中國留下了積壓訂單，這就是為什麼我們今天一直在談論中國以外的業務，中國約占我們今年全球收入的 12%，即本季度的 10%，上個季度的 10%。所以現在貢獻仍然較小。

So we're watching it closely. We're rightsizing our cost to the best of our ability. But even with the mod backlog will be up, the service backlog will be up going into into next year at China. But the new equipment backlog will be down.

因此我們正在密切關注。我們正在盡最大努力調整成本。但即使改裝積壓訂單會增加，到明年中國服務積壓訂單也會增加。但新設備積壓量將會下降。

Okay. So I mean that just sounds like on a -- like from a profile perspective, is China enough of a drag next year to completely offset what's happening in the other regions?

好的。所以我的意思是，從概況的角度來看，中國明年的拖累是否足以完全抵銷其他地區的情況？

We're not going to guide for next year yet, Steve, but the other regions are really growing strongly.

史蒂夫，我們還沒有為明年做出預測，但其他地區確實發展強勁。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Just wanted to clarify, demand in North America, I mean, you just referenced backlogs being strong. I think earlier in the call, you kind of talked about some project delays. You mentioned recovery in multifamily. So I wonder if you could just square that circle?

只是想澄清一下，北美的需求，我的意思是，你剛才提到積壓訂單很強勁。我認為在早些時候的通話中，您談到了一些項目延遲的問題。您提到了多戶家庭的恢復。所以我想知道你是否能解決這個問題？

Sure. Well, and you may have seen the June ABI data that came out this morning, which was down a little from May, but inquiries being up, Dodge Momentum is up in June. And so what we're seeing for the segment, we stayed at down low single.

當然。好吧，您可能已經看到了今天早上發布的 6 月份 ABI 數據，該數據比 5 月份略有下降，但由於問詢量增加，6 月份道奇動力有所上升。因此，就我們目前所見，我們仍處於低位。

But I would tell you, as we kind of came through the end of the second quarter, we are starting to see some nice positive opportunities when we look at proposal activity and pending awards as well in terms of North America. The uncertainty we talked about was for the current backlog, we're executing at job sites.

但我想告訴你，當我們進入第二季末時，當我們審視北美的提案活動和待決獎時，我們開始看到一些很好的積極機會。我們談論的不確定性是針對當前積壓的工作，我們正在工作現場執行。

So our backlog, as I said, was down as we came in this year, minus 4% in North America on new equipment. We've been shipping from our Florence, South Carolina facility. We've been ready to install. But some of the job sites have slowed down a little. And I can't -- it's not our labor or -- but there are some general unease with the tariffs and what's been going on, on the more macro project level.

因此，正如我所說，我們的積壓訂單在今年有所下降，北美新設備的積壓訂單減少了 4%。我們一直從南卡羅來納州佛羅倫薩的工廠發貨。我們已經做好安裝準備。但一些招聘網站的進展略有放緩。我不能——這不是我們的勞動力——但在更宏觀的項目層面上，人們對關稅和正在發生的事情普遍感到不安。

We're not seeing that slowdown in our orders by any means with four consecutive orders in the teens in North America, up 15% in new equipment orders really this quarter.

我們的訂單量並未出現任何放緩，北美地區連續四個季度的訂單量都達到了十幾歲，本季度新設備訂單量實際上增長了 15%。

So everything we're seeing locally, which is we'll look at the data. But what we're hearing, again, is as the tariffs are getting more defined and settled, there's more excitement. We all are waiting for interest rates and whatever will happen from the Fed to happen, obviously, in the second half of this year, there are a lot of jobs where the math works with that next small interest rate decline. So we bid them. We're waiting to hear.

因此，我們在本地看到的一切，也就是我們將查看的數據。但我們再次聽到的是，隨著關稅變得更加明確和穩定，人們的興奮情緒也越來越強烈。我們都在等待利率以及聯準會將採取的任何行動，顯然，在今年下半年，有許多工作將隨著下一次小幅利率下降而受到影響。所以我們向他們出價。我們正在等待消息。

Our team is prepared, not just to win them, but to perform. And I think we've seen just really strong performance there.

我們的團隊已經做好準備，不僅要贏得比賽，而且要表現出色。我認為我們已經看到了那裡非常強勁的表現。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe I just wanted to start with a broader question on free cash flow. Because I guess based on the updated dollar guide for this year, you've sort of got the same free cash flow. It looks like for in dollars for four years running now despite over that period, sort of mid-single-digit sales growth, mid-single-digit plus net income dollar growth.

也許我只是想從一個關於自由現金流的更廣泛的問題開始。因為我猜根據今年更新的美元指南，你會得到相同的自由現金流。儘管在此期間，銷售額和淨收入均實現了中等個位數成長，但看起來已經連續四年以美元計算成長。

So just trying to understand not so much in Q2, but what's going on more broadly on free cash flow margins or conversion? Is something changing in industry dynamics around payment terms or something competitively anything you'd call out there?

因此，只是想了解第二季度的情況，但更廣泛地說，自由現金流利潤率或轉換情況如何？您認為付款條件或競爭方面的產業動態是否發生了變化？

No. Thank you for the question, Julian. And it's what I said before to Nicole. So it's a matter of the business mix that is changing. We -- and the working capital of new equipment is more favorable than in service.

不。謝謝你的提問，朱利安。這也是我之前對妮可說的話。所以這是一個業務組合改變的問題。我們－而且新設備的營運資金比現有設備的營運資金更優惠。

And in the last years, new equipment has been declining because of the situation in China. In 2025, the situation is a little bit more acute because on top of China, we have the decline of US in cells, driven by the ending backlog last year that was negative plus what Judy mentioned, the job sites are slightly delayed because of the uncertainty about tariffs. But this is just a temporary effect.

近年來，由於中國國內情勢的影響，新設備數量一直在下降。2025 年的情況會更加嚴峻，因為除了中國之外，美國的電池產量也在下降，這是由於去年的積壓訂單為負數，再加上朱迪提到的關稅不確定性，工作地點也略有延遲。但這只是暫時的效果。

So service is growing strongly. Service collects what we collect later. It's a matter of time. So by when we stabilize new equipment, and we have line of sight because the US backlog is growing. It's growing 5% in Q2. So US will stabilize and China will bottom out. And we also mentioned that orders in China are expected to stabilize towards the end of the year.

因此服務業正在強勁成長。服務收集我們稍後收集的內容。這只是時間問題。因此，當我們穩定新設備時，我們就能看到前景，因為美國的積壓訂單正在增加。第二季成長了 5%。因此美國將會穩定，中國將會觸底。我們也提到，預計中國訂單將在年底前趨於穩定。

And on the other side, we will collect this service. So we -- our business fundamentals remains unchanged. Our business model generates cash flow conversion of 100% plus because of our low capital intensity because of our lower R&D is just a matter of the temporary shift of the mix until we stabilize the equipment.

另一方面，我們將收集這項服務。因此，我們的業務基本面保持不變。我們的商業模式產生了 100% 以上的現金流轉換，因為我們的資本密集度較低，因為我們的研發成本較低，這只是在我們穩定設備之前暫時改變組合的問題。

Yes. Julian, there's no structural change in payment terms across the industry, everything remains strong. And I just want to give a shout out to our colleagues who do such a great job in execution and then collect that cash that allows us to be able to share that cash with our shareholders. And you saw we're committed to the $800 million in share repurchase and to our dividend. And I think we've been -- we're really good stewards of giving that capital back to our shareholders.

是的。朱利安，整個產業的支付條件沒有發生結構性變化，一切都保持強勁。我只想向我們的同事致敬，他們在執行方面做得非常出色，然後收集了現金，使我們能夠與股東分享這些現金。你們也看到了，我們承諾回購 8 億美元的股票並發放股利。我認為我們一直都是將資本回饋給股東的優秀管理者。

That's helpful. And then just a shorter-term question on the operating margin dynamics. Just to understand, so in the first half of the year, the operating margin is up a 20 bps or so and including the Q3 guide, not much. And then you've got this step up for the whole year guided of including tariffs sort of 30 bps or so. So that margin step-up is happening, I suppose, despite a bigger tariff headwind later in the year.

這很有幫助。然後是關於營業利潤率動態的一個短期問題。只是要了解，所以在上半年，營業利潤率上升了 20 個基點左右，包括第三季指南，增幅並不大。然後你就得到了全年指導價，其中包括 30 個基點左右的關稅。因此，我認為，儘管今年稍後關稅阻力會更大，但利潤率仍會上升。

Maybe just help us understand sort of what's the puts and takes there around sort of the degree of tariff margin headwind in the back half of Q4? And what all those countervailing factors are to offset that?

也許只是幫助我們了解第四季後半段關稅利潤逆風程度的優缺點？那麼，可以抵銷這項影響的因素有哪些呢？

Yes. Julian, you are right. So the tariff impact is going to be in the second half of the year. We are guiding the midpoint of $30 million. Year-to-date, we have had $5 million, $6 million in the P&L.

是的。朱利安，你說得對。因此關稅的影響將會在下半年顯現。我們預計中點為 3000 萬美元。年初至今，我們的損益表有 500 萬美元、600 萬美元。

So this is going to be a headwind that we have quantified in around 10 basis points, 20 basis points of my in. But on the other side, the business mix improves in the second half of the year because we are accelerating very strongly repair and modernization. Again, on the back of a strong quarter end backlog growth, and as you know, service margins are higher. So this is going to be a tailwind. But in addition, we are finalizing the execution of our UpLift program.

因此，這將是一個不利因素，我們已經將其量化為大約 10 個基點、20 個基點。但另一方面，由於我們正在大力加快修復和現代化進程，下半年業務組合有所改善。再次，在季度末積壓訂單強勁增長的推動下，正如您所知，服務利潤率更高。所以這將是一個順風。但除此之外，我們正在最終完成 UpLift 計畫的執行。

And we have very good line of sight because most of the actions are -- now to be executed, they are progressing on plan. And also China, as I mentioned before, the $20 million in year savings we have captured $5 million in the first half. So the remaining comes in the second half. So essentially, it's a combination of business mix, productivity and the flow-through of the UpLift and China transformation savings.

我們的視線非常好，因為大多數行動現在都已執行，並且正在按計劃進行。還有中國，正如我之前提到的，我們全年節省了 2000 萬美元，上半年就節省了 500 萬美元。所以剩下的事情將在下半場進行。因此，從本質上講，它是業務組合、生產力以及 UpLift 和中國轉型節省的流通的結合。

Yes. Let me just reinforce our confidence in the service business in the second half of the year. We have the backlog. We have the resources, as Cristina said, and now we execute. And you will see that make the difference and drive the guide and that will take care of the tariff impact, and it will get us again back to the outlook that now we've reconfirmed twice.

是的。我只想強調一下我們對下半年服務業務的信心。我們還有積壓工作。正如克里斯蒂娜所說，我們擁有資源，現在我們要執行。您將會看到，這會產生影響並推動指南，這將解決關稅的影響，並將使我們再次回到我們已經兩次確認的前景。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to follow up on the prior commentary around margins into the back half. So I guess, is service mix getting more favorable into the back half versus Q2? Because it seems like much of the uplift in growth from the 4% back to I guess, something like 6% is driven by mod, which I thought would have been more dilutive to service margins. Any color on that?

我想跟進關於後半部分利潤率的先前評論。所以我猜，與第二季相比，下半年的服務組合是否會變得更有利？因為看起來成長率從 4% 回升到 6% 左右，很大一部分是由 mod 驅動的，我認為這會進一步稀釋服務利潤率。有顏色嗎？

Yes. I mean the simple answer and the candid answer is it's actually more driven by repair step-up, which, again, we have 8% backlog going into the third quarter. There will be additional repair orders added, the demand we're seeing there is strong everywhere in the world, all four regions, EMEA, Asia Pac, China and the Americas. And that mod will pick up too. But the relative contribution both in sales and in profits, will come from repair.

是的。我的意思是，簡單而坦率的答案是，這實際上更多地受到維修升級的推動，同樣，我們在第三季度有 8% 的積壓訂單。還會有額外的維修訂單，我們看到世界各地、歐洲、中東和非洲、亞太地區、中國和美洲四個地區的需求都很強勁。且該模式也會被接受。但銷售額和利潤的相對貢獻將來自維修。

Appreciate that. And then maybe just on the Americas. Obviously, orders have been pretty good, not converting at the rate expected. I guess, what do you think the market needs to see to start converting those orders? Is it visibility around tariffs? Is it interest rates? Any thoughts on that?

非常感謝。然後也許只針對美洲。顯然，訂單情況相當不錯，但轉換率並未達到預期。我想，您認為市場需要看到什麼才能開始轉換這些訂單？關稅是否可見？是利率嗎？對此有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. No, it's a great question, Chris. We do convert well. The challenge -- the Americas, especially North America, is our longest lead time from when we book an order to when we get to a job site. There's a combination of reasons from permitting to just general construction challenges in the US. So we've been running through 18 months ago of backlog, and now we've got four straight quarters of orders improvement, which you'll see in '26 really start stepping up the revenue for North America.

是的。不，這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。我們的轉換率確實很高。挑戰——美洲，特別是北美，是我們從下訂單到到達工作現場最長的交貨時間。原因有很多，從許可到美國一般的建築挑戰。因此，我們在 18 個月前就開始處理積壓訂單，現在我們的訂單已經連續四個季度有所改善，您將在 26 年看到北美的收入真正開始增加。

So it's -- that part is not an issue. What we're just seeing is a bit of uncertainty right now on current job sites from the backlog that we're literally not just delivering but installing, and it's just as each job takes another week or two longer than anticipated, we're not seeing that impact on the margin side, on the labor side because we can move our crews around, but we are seeing it on when we realize the revenue.

所以——那部分不是問題。我們現在看到的是，當前施工現場存在一些不確定性，因為積壓的訂單不僅僅是交付，還有安裝，而且每項工作都比預期多花一到兩週的時間，我們沒有看到利潤方面和勞動力方面的影響，因為我們可以調動我們的工作人員，但我們在實現收入時會看到它。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Can you just expand a little on where the furloughs are occurring, how long you expect those to be in place at this point?

您能否稍微詳細說明一下休假發生在哪裡，以及您預計休假將持續多久？

Yes. So they're temporary. Let me be clear. I mean, measured in weeks, and you're mainly seeing them where we're seeing our new equipment challenges in terms of revenue, North America and China.

是的。所以它們是暫時的。讓我說清楚。我的意思是，以周為單位來衡量，你主要會看到我們在收入方面面臨的新設備挑戰，即北美和中國。

Got it. Makes sense. And then just in terms of order expectations as we get into the back half of the year because first half of the year pretty stable with total orders down 1% organically. We do get comps that move around quite a bit.

知道了。有道理。就訂單預期而言，我們進入下半年，因為上半年相當穩定，總訂單有機下降了 1%。我們確實得到了一些變動很大的補償。

And so just any color on how you're thinking about order activity in the back half of the year, if you could revisit, I think you gave a little bit on China that in particular, but then also Americas and EMEA, how you're looking at order trends there?

因此，如果您可以重新回顧一下，您如何看待下半年的訂單活動，我想您特別提到了中國，但同時您也提到了美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，您如何看待那裡的訂單趨勢？

Yes. Let me start with modernization and then I'll turn kind of new equipment over to Cristina and we'll pair up on this one as partners. Listen, the modernization order strength will continue, and you will see that continue globally.

是的。讓我先從現代化開始，然後我會將新設備移交給克里斯蒂娜，我們將作為合作夥伴一起完成這項工作。聽著，現代化秩序的力量將會持續下去，你會看到這種情況在全球範圍內持續下去。

And I think you'll actually see more strength coming out of EMEA relative to how they performed in the first half. They had a challenging second quarter, but it was due to a tough compare to a major modernization on second quarter last year. So we expect to be talking about EMEA mod orders becoming far more positive but the other three are on good trajectories to continue at this rate.

我認為，與上半年相比，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現實際上會更加強勁。他們經歷了充滿挑戰的第二季度，但這是因為與去年第二季度的重大現代化相比，情況更加艱難。因此，我們預計 EMEA 地區的改裝訂單將變得更加積極，但其他三個地區的訂單也將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭。

We've always believed that mod orders because of the market demand we're seeing, China will be up far more than 20% because you'll see this -- we call it this bond mod, this government stimulus mod at 100,000 units available that they have to spend the money by year-end, you'll see that pick up well beyond 20% that we saw last quarter.

我們一直相信，由於我們看到的市場需求，中國的訂單量將增長超過 20%，因為你會看到這一點——我們稱之為債券模式，這是政府刺激計劃，現有 100,000 個單位，他們必須在年底前花掉這筆錢，你會看到這一增幅遠遠超過我們上個季度看到的 20%。

And as I said, Americas had a phenomenal quarter with 50% plus in North America. We don't expect them to sustain that rate, but I do expect them to be in the teens plus for mod. And APAC has strong mod growth as well. They were 20%-plus, and they should be at least teens plus.

正如我所說，美洲地區本季表現非常出色，北美地區的銷售額成長了 50% 以上。我們並不期望他們能夠維持這樣的速度，但我確實希望他們能夠達到十幾歲以上的水平。亞太地區的模式成長同樣強勁。他們佔了 20% 以上，至少應該有十幾歲以上。

Cristina, I'll let you talk to new equipment.

克里斯蒂娜，我讓你談談新設備。

Yes. So on the new equipment side, we have talked about China. China has been sequentially stable in the first half of the year. We expect a ramp-up in the second half BPY back to flat to even slightly positive in orders. The reason for that is, of course, the easier compare, but also the fact that we have been working on the transformation initiatives of new equipment in the first half of the year. In consolidating the two brands, consolidating agents and distributors. So we are now in very good shape to start getting the results in terms of orders.

是的。因此，在新設備方面，我們談到了中國。上半年中國經濟維持季比穩定。我們預計下半年 BPY 訂單量將回升至持平甚至略微正成長。原因當然是為了比較容易，但也因為我們上半年一直在做新設備的改造措施。在鞏固兩個品牌的同時，鞏固代理商和經銷商。因此，我們現在處於非常有利的狀態，可以開始在訂單方面取得成果。

On the Americas side, Americas has had a super strong performance since the second half of last year, has been growing mid-teens of above. For the second half of this year, we expect the growth to slow down a little bit, but it's just a matter of the compare because they started growing very strongly last year. So we expect them to be sequentially stable, but the growth with a slowdown.

美洲方面，自去年下半年以來，美洲地區表現非常強勁，一直維持著十幾歲以上的成長率。對於今年下半年，我們預計成長速度會略有放緩，但這只是一個比較的問題，因為去年他們的成長就開始非常強勁。因此，我們預計它們將保持連續穩定，但成長將放緩。

And then on EMEA, EMEA is expected to be kind of low mid-single-digit for the year. The reason for that is we have a very strong growth in Middle East. There are certain markets in Europe that are more muted. I'm talking about Central Europe, Western Europe or the north of Europe. But we are also taking selective investments in those markets where we see possibility to grow to a segment, but always with the prospect of converting into service afterwards.

然後是歐洲、中東和非洲地區，預計今年歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額將達到中低個位數。原因是我們在中東地區實現了非常強勁的成長。歐洲某些市場表現較低迷。我指的是中歐、西歐或歐洲北部。但我們也會對那些我們認為有可能發展成為某個細分市場的市場進行選擇性投資，但始終希望之後能夠轉化為服務。

I will now turn the call back to Judy for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給朱迪，請她做最後發言。

Thank you, Tina. While we face near-term challenges in our new equipment business, we remain confident in our long-term outlook. The global installed base continues to expand, while the population of aged units presents an attractive and growing opportunity for modernization.

謝謝你，蒂娜。雖然我們的新設備業務面臨短期挑戰，但我們對長期前景仍然充滿信心。全球安裝基數持續擴大，而老舊機組的數量為現代化提供了有吸引力且不斷增長的機會。

Together, these strong fundamentals should continue to drive our service flywheel. As we look ahead, we're confident our service-driven business will continue to deliver attractive long-term shareholder returns.

總之，這些強勁的基本面將繼續推動我們的服務飛輪。展望未來，我們相信，我們的服務驅動型業務將繼續為股東帶來有吸引力的長期回報。

Thank you for joining us. Thanks to our Otis' colleagues and thank you to our investors.

感謝您加入我們。感謝我們奧的斯的同事，感謝我們的投資者。

Thank you again for joining us today. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。