奧的斯電梯 (OTIS) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Otis' fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being carried live on the Internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis' website at www.otis.com.

    早上好,歡迎參加奧的斯2025年第四季財報電話會議。本次通話正在線上直播,並錄音以供回放。示範資料可從奧的斯公司網站 www.otis.com 下載。

  • I'll now turn it over to Rob Quartaro, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁羅伯·誇塔羅。請繼續。

  • Robert Quartaro - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Robert Quartaro - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Krista. Welcome to Otis' fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO, and President; and Cristina Mendez, Executive Vice President and CFO.

    謝謝你,克麗斯塔。歡迎參加奧的斯公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。今天和我一起通話的是董事長、執行長兼總裁朱迪·馬克斯,以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜·門德斯。

  • Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring and significant non-recurring items. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

    請注意,除非另有說明,公司將討論持續經營的業績,不包括重組和重大非經常性項目。這些措施的協調情況可在網路直播的附錄中找到。

  • We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis' SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    我們也提醒聽眾,本次演講包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述有風險和不確定性。奧的斯向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括我們的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格季度報告,提供了可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Judy.

    現在我把麥克風交給茱蒂。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Rob. Good morning, afternoon, and evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We hope that everyone listening is safe and well. 2025 marked our fifth full year as an independent public company, a milestone that reflects our resilience and leadership in shaping the future of urban mobility.

    謝謝你,羅布。各位早安、下午好、晚上好。感謝您的參與。我們希望所有收聽的聽眾都平安健康。 2025年是我們作為獨立上市公司的第五個完整年頭,這一里程碑體現了我們在塑造未來城市交通方面的韌性和領導地位。

  • At the heart of this success are our 72,000 colleagues worldwide whose dedication to our purpose has made this possible. Every day, we move 2.5 billion people safely and reliably and maintain approximately 2.5 million units across the globe, earning the trust of customers and passengers alike. That trust remains our highest priority.

    我們取得這一成功的核心在於我們遍布全球的 72,000 名同事,他們對我們目標的奉獻使這一切成為可能。我們每天安全可靠地運送 25 億人次,並在全球範圍內維護約 250 萬台設備,贏得了客戶和乘客的信賴。信任始終是我們的首要任務。

  • This year, we achieved multiple important milestones, ending the year with strong momentum heading into 2026. We secured record Modernization orders, building an unprecedented backlog and our New Equipment backlog grew.

    今年,我們取得了許多重要里程碑,以強勁的勢頭邁入 2026 年。我們獲得了創紀錄的現代化改造訂單,建立了前所未有的積壓訂單,而且我們的新設備積壓訂單也在增加。

  • We achieved record adjusted free cash flow of $817 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting our continued focus on working capital efficiencies and collections. We continue to grow the largest maintenance portfolio in the industry. We successfully executed the UpLift program and completed our China transformation initiatives, including buying out the minority shareholder of one of our joint ventures in China, Otis Electric, while driving operational excellence across our business.

    第四季度,我們實現了創紀錄的調整後自由現金流 8.17 億美元,這反映了我們對營運資本效率和收款的持續關注。我們持續拓展業界規模最大的維護業務組合。我們成功執行了 UpLift 計劃,並完成了我們的中國轉型計劃,包括收購了我們在中國合資企業之一奧的斯電氣的少數股東,同時推動了我們業務的卓越運營。

  • For the year, we generated $1.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow and returned approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, while investing approximately $100 million in targeted bolt-on acquisitions to strengthen our Service portfolio and expand our presence in key markets. With these results, our strong backlog and the largest maintenance portfolio in the industry, we are confident that our strategy will continue to deliver attractive results in 2026 and beyond.

    本年度,我們產生了 16 億美元的調整後自由現金流,並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 15 億美元,同時投資約 1 億美元用於有針對性的補充收購,以加強我們的服務組合併擴大我們在關鍵市場的業務。憑藉這些成果、我們強大的積壓訂單以及業內最大的維護組合,我們有信心,我們的策略將在 2026 年及以後繼續帶來可觀的成果。

  • Moving to slide 3. Otis closed the year with solid performance in the fourth quarter driven by our Service-driven business model. Organic sales grew 1% in the quarter with Service up 5%, including broad-based growth across all lines of business. Maintenance and Repair grew 4%, while Modernization increased 9%.

    切換到第3張投影片。奧的斯在第四季度取得了穩健的業績,為全年畫上了圓滿的句號,這得益於我們以服務為導向的商業模式。本季有機銷售額成長 1%,服務業務成長 5%,所有業務線均全面成長。維護和修理增長了 4%,而現代化增長了 9%。

  • Adjusted operating profit margin expanded 70 basis points, driven by a 100-basis-point improvement in Service margin. We delivered double-digit adjusted EPS growth in the quarter, up 11%, which was the highest level this year and our strongest performance in the last six quarters.

    經調整後的營業利潤率成長了 70 個基點,其中服務利潤率提高了 100 個基點。本季我們實現了兩位數的調整後每股收益成長,成長了 11%,這是今年以來的最高水平,也是過去六個季度以來的最佳表現。

  • At approximately 2.5 million units, the largest in the industry, our Maintenance portfolio grew 4% for the 14th consecutive quarter allowing us to grow and invest in our global Service network and demonstrating the heart of our flywheel strategy. Modernization was a standout in the quarter as orders increased 43% and we ended the quarter with a backlog up 30% at constant currency, the highest since spin and positioning us well for 2026.

    我們的維護業務組合規模約為 250 萬台,是業內最大的,連續第 14 個季度增長 4%,使我們能夠發展並投資於我們的全球服務網絡,並展現了我們飛輪戰略的核心。本季現代化改造表現突出,訂單成長了 43%,季度末積壓訂單以固定匯率計算成長了 30%,這是分拆以來的最高水平,也為我們 2026 年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

  • We are driving meaningful Modernization growth through our industrialized manufacturing and installation capabilities and our commercial strategy, including phased packages that limit disruption and provide budgeting options for our customers. The tremendous Modernization opportunity ahead remains evergreen as by the time all of the aged units are modernized, they will be ready to be refurbished again.

    我們透過工業化的製造和安裝能力以及商業策略(包括分階段的方案,以減少干擾並為客戶提供預算選擇),推動了有意義的現代化成長。巨大的現代化機會始終存在,因為當所有舊舊單元都完成現代化改造後,它們將準備好再次翻新。

  • Quarterly adjusted free cash flow reached $817 million, another record since spin, reflecting our continued focus on collections and working capital efficiency. And we continue to be an innovation leader. For example, in November, at the eighth China International Import Expo, Otis unveiled Gen3 comfort for residential Modernization, SkyRise Mod and Link Mod for scalable high-rise elevator and escalator Modernizations, and upgraded Smart Cab and new AI tools, including the Otis AI inspection robot and the Otis AI agent to enhance safety, diagnostics, and real-time collaboration. These solutions bring AI-driven safety, connected Service capabilities, and enhanced accessibility to customers and passengers supporting urban renewal and aging communities.

    季度調整後自由現金流達到 8.17 億美元,這是分拆以來的另一個紀錄,反映出我們對收款和營運資本效率的持續關注。我們將繼續保持創新領導者的地位。例如,在 11 月舉行的第八屆中國國際進口博覽會上,奧的斯推出了用於住宅現代化改造的 Gen3 comfort、用於可擴展高層電梯和自動扶梯現代化改造的 SkyRise Mod 和 Link Mod,以及升級的智能轎廂和新的 AI 工具,包括奧的斯 AI 協作、協作和奧的協作式、協作機器人和奧的安全性調查。這些解決方案為客戶和乘客帶來人工智慧驅動的安全保障、互聯服務能力和更便利的出行體驗,從而支持城市更新和老齡化社區的發展。

  • We also recently launched our Gen3 product family in EMEA. Gen3 builds on our Gen2 platform and comes standard with Otis ONE, our Internet of Things connectivity solution, enabling predictive maintenance, real-time health monitoring, and remote intervention, which improves uptime and Service quality. These products complement Otis Gen360 and comply with the latest and most stringent safety standards while providing customers with smooth, comfortable, and digitally connected rides and stylish cabins that can be customized to meet their unique needs.

    我們最近也在歐洲、中東和非洲地區推出了第三代產品系列。Gen3 是在我們 Gen2 平台的基礎上開發的,標配了 Otis ONE,即我們的物聯網連接解決方案,可實現預測性維護、即時健康監測和遠端幹預,從而提高正常運行時間和服務品質。這些產品與奧的斯 Gen360 相輔相成,符合最新、最嚴格的安全標準,同時為客戶提供平穩、舒適、數位連接的乘車體驗和時尚的座艙,這些座艙可以根據客戶的獨特需求進行客製化。

  • Our Otis ONE connected units continued to grow globally as we approached 1.1 million connected units, providing predictive maintenance, data-driven proactive Repairs, and valuable application of AI for productivity and customer value. The growing connectivity is also driving subscription revenue, which increased 35% in 2025.

    隨著我們互聯設備數量接近 110 萬台,我們的 Otis ONE 互聯設備在全球範圍內持續增長,提供預測性維護、數據驅動的主動維修以及人工智慧在提高生產力和客戶價值方面的寶貴應用。日益增長的互聯互通也推動了訂閱收入的成長,預計到 2025 年將成長 35%。

  • Turning to the full year. Otis delivered solid organic Service sales growth up 5% and expanded adjusted operating profit margin by 40 basis points. Since spin, we have improved margin by 30 basis points or more each year, underscoring our steady operational progress and the disciplined focus that enables consistent delivery.

    展望全年。奧的斯實現了穩健的有機服務銷售額成長,增幅達 5%,調整後的營業利潤率提高了 40 個基點。自重組以來,我們的利潤率每年提高 30 個基點或更多,這凸顯了我們穩定的營運進步和確保持續交付的嚴謹專注。

  • Adjusted EPS grew 6% and we generated approximately $1.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow for the year. This strong cash flow enabled us to return $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. With a positive New Equipment backlog at year-end and with Modernization backlog at an all-time high, this level of free cash flow conversion should be sustainable.

    調整後每股收益成長 6%,我們全年產生了約 16 億美元的調整後自由現金流。強勁的現金流使我們能夠透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 15 億美元。由於年底新設備訂單積壓量為正,且現代化改造訂單積壓量達到歷史最高水平,這種自由現金流轉換率應該是可持續的。

  • Turning to our orders performance on slide 4. Orders for combined New Equipment and Modernization increased 10% during the quarter, driven by solid performance in EMEA in the Americas. Our total backlog at constant currency grew 8% and when excluding China, the increase was 14%.

    接下來請看第 4 頁的訂單表現。本季新設備和現代化改造訂單總額成長了 10%,主要得益於 EMEA 和美洲地區的強勁表現。以固定匯率計算,我們的總積壓訂單增加了 8%;如果排除中國,則成長了 14%。

  • New Equipment orders at constant currency declined 2% in the quarter. We saw strength in EMEA up mid-single digits driven by growth in Western and Southern Europe and in the Americas, which also increased mid-single digits. This was offset by a high-teens decline in Asia Pacific due to a tough comparison.

    以固定匯率計算,本季新設備訂單下降了2%。我們看到 EMEA 地區實現了中等個位數的成長,這主要得益於西歐、南歐和美洲地區的成長,這兩個地區的成長也達到了中等個位數。亞太地區由於去年同期基數較高,導致該地區經濟出現十幾個百分點的下滑,抵銷了部分成長。

  • We continue to see improvement in China which declined mid-single digits in the quarter and in the second half, in line with our expectations. At constant currency, our New Equipment backlog increased 2% year-over-year, and excluding China, it grew 9%.

    我們持續看到中國經濟有所改善,該季度和下半年經濟均出現個位數中段下滑,符合我們的預期。以固定匯率計算,我們的新設備積壓訂單年增 2%,若不計中國市場,則較去年同期成長 9%。

  • Modernization closed the year exceptionally well, delivering the highest quarterly order since spin and surpassing the record we set in Q3 of this year. Orders grew 43% at constant currency, with over 100% growth in EMEA, over 20% growth in the Americas, and high-teens growth in Asia Pacific. We ended the quarter with a Modernization backlog of 30% reinforcing our view that we remain in the early stages of a multiyear Modernization cycle supported by the aging global installed base.

    現代化業務以優異的成績結束了這一年,實現了自分拆以來最高的季度訂單量,並超過了我們在今年第三季度創下的紀錄。以固定匯率計算,訂單成長了 43%,其中歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長超過 100%,美洲地區成長超過 20%,亞太地區成長接近 10%。本季末,我們的現代化改造積壓量為 30%,這進一步印證了我們的觀點,即我們仍處於多年現代化改造週期的早期階段,而老化的全球已安裝基礎為此提供了支持。

  • Our Service portfolio grew 4% in 2025, bringing it approximately to 2.5 million units and strengthening our leading position globally with low-teens growth in China, high single-digit growth in Asia Pacific, low single-digit growth in the Americas, and approximately flat performance in EMEA. Recaptures and cancellations remained roughly net neutral for the year, making conversion the primary driver portfolio growth, consistent with last year's.

    2025 年,我們的服務組合成長了 4%,達到約 250 萬台,鞏固了我們在全球的領先地位,其中中國市場實現了兩位數低增長,亞太地區實現了個位數高增長,美洲市場實現了個位數低增長,而歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業績基本持平。今年的追回和取消交易基本上保持淨中性,因此轉換成為投資組合成長的主要驅動力,與去年的情況一致。

  • We ended the year with a stable retention rate outside of China, enabled by our ongoing focus on investment in Service excellence. This represents an improving trend in our retention rate, excluding China as anticipated. As you know, the Chinese market exhibits structurally higher churn due to competitive dynamics and shorter contract duration.

    我們在中國以外的地區實現了穩定的客戶留存率,這得益於我們持續專注於投資卓越服務。正如預期的那樣,除中國以外,我們的客戶留存率呈現改善趨勢。如您所知,由於競爭格局和合約期限較短,中國市場的人員流動率結構性較高。

  • Our global teams executed well this quarter, securing strategic customer wins that reflect the strength of our solutions and the trust our customers place in Otis. As we install Service and modernize their elevators and escalators, we deepen relationships and build loyalty that supports long-term recurring revenue growth.

    本季度,我們的全球團隊表現出色,贏得了策略客戶,這體現了我們解決方案的實力以及客戶對奧的斯的信任。透過安裝服務和對電梯和自動扶梯進行現代化改造,我們加深了與客戶的關係,建立了忠誠度,從而支持了長期的經常性收入成長。

  • In the Americas, Otis secured a major New Equipment project in Dallas, to provide 39 elevators for a new pediatric hospital developed by Children's Health and the University of Texas Southwestern. The scope includes 26 SkyRise units and two Gen3 elevators with our Otis ONE Pro connected Service platform. This project reinforces Otis' role in delivering advanced vertical transportation for the critical healthcare infrastructure.

    在美洲,奧的斯在達拉斯獲得了一項重要的新設備項目,為兒童健康中心和德克薩斯大學西南醫學中心開發的新兒科醫院提供 39 部電梯。該項目包括 26 台 SkyRise 電梯和兩台 Gen3 電梯,並配備我們的 Otis ONE Pro 連接服務平台。該項目鞏固了奧的斯在為關鍵醫療基礎設施提供先進垂直運輸方面的作用。

  • In China, Otis was selected to supply more than 490 heavy-duty public escalators for Shanghai Metro Line 19. These escalators are equipped with sensors that enable real-time remote performance monitoring. The new line will span 29 miles and include 34 stations and we are proud to continue our long-standing relationship with the Shanghai Metro where Otis already supports approximately 2,700 elevators and escalators across 13 lines.

    在中國,奧的斯公司被選中為上海地鐵19號線提供490多部重型公共扶梯。這些自動扶梯配備了感測器,可以進行即時遠端性能監控。新線路全長 29 英里,設有 34 個車站。我們很榮幸能夠繼續與上海地鐵保持長期合作關係,奧的斯已為上海地鐵 13 條線路的約 2700 部電梯和自動扶梯提供支援。

  • In London, Otis won a comprehensive Service and Modernization contract program for 172 escalators across the London underground, bringing the total number of units we Service for transport for London to more than 300. Our teams will maintain, refurbish, or replace units, ensuring safety and reliability for equipment that operates up to 20 hours a day and supports 1.2 billion annual passenger journeys. Building on a legacy that began with the first Otis passenger escalator at Earls Court 1911, Otis continues to deliver trusted expertise and innovation for urban mobility in the capital of the United Kingdom.

    在倫敦,奧的斯贏得了倫敦地鐵 172 部自動扶梯的全面服務和現代化改造合同,使我們為倫敦交通部門提供服務的設備總數超過 300 台。我們的團隊將對設備進行維護、翻新或更換,以確保每天運行長達 20 小時、每年支援 12 億人次乘客出行的設備的安全性和可靠性。奧的斯公司自 1911 年在伯爵府建造第一部奧的斯乘客自動扶梯以來,一直秉承著這一傳統,不斷為英國首都的城市交通提供值得信賴的專業知識和創新。

  • In Kuala Lumpur, Otis has secured a landmark New Equipment project at our Mon Halcon KLCC delivering 26 SkyRise elevator systems featuring our Compass 360 destination management technology, Otis ONE IoT solution, and EV smart screens to enhance passenger experience. Working with Armani Group and project developer Vesselin, this collaboration brings advanced vertical mobility and innovative design to one of Malaysia's most prestigious developments.

    在吉隆坡,奧的斯已獲得一項具有里程碑意義的新設備項目,為吉隆坡城中城 (KLCC) 的 Mon Halcon 提供 26 套 SkyRise 電梯系統,這些系統採用我們的 Compass 360 目的地管理技術、Otis ONE 物聯網解決方案和 EV 智慧螢幕,以提升乘客體驗。此次合作由 Armani 集團和專案開發商 Vesselin 共同完成,將先進的垂直交通技術和創新設計帶入馬來西亞最負盛名的開發項目之一。

  • Turning to our fourth quarter results on slide 5. Otis delivered net sales of $3.8 billion with organic sales up 1%. Adjusted operating profit, excluding an $18 million foreign exchange tailwind increased by $29 million. Adjusted operating profit margin expanded by 70 basis points to 16.6%, driven by strength in Service margin, which increased 100 basis points in the quarter. Adjusted EPS grew approximately 11% or $0.10 in the quarter, driven by strong operational performance, favorable foreign exchange rates, and a lower share count.

    接下來請看投影片5,了解我們的第四季業績。奧的斯實現淨銷售額 38 億美元,有機銷售額成長 1%。經過調整後的營業利潤(不計1800萬美元的外匯利好)增加了2900萬美元。經調整後的營業利潤率成長了 70 個基點,達到 16.6%,主要得益於服務利潤率的強勁增長,該季度服務利潤率增長了 100 個基點。受強勁的營運業績、有利的匯率和較低的流通股數量的推動,本季調整後每股收益成長約 11% 或 0.10 美元。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Cristina to walk through our results in more detail.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給克里斯蒂娜,讓她更詳細地講解我們的結果。

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Judy. Starting with Service on slide 6. Service organic sales grew 5% in the quarter with growth across all lines of business as our Service flywheel continues to deliver solid top line results. Maintenance and Repair organic sales grew 4% with Maintenance driven by 4% portfolio growth and 3% positive price, partially offset by mix and churn.

    謝謝你,朱迪。從第 6 頁的「服務」開始。本季服務業務有機銷售額成長了 5%,所有業務線均實現成長,我們的服務飛輪效應持續帶來穩健的營收成長。維護和維修業務的有機銷售額成長了 4%,其中維護業務的成長主要得益於 4% 的產品組合成長和 3% 的價格上漲,但部分被產品組合和客戶流失所抵消。

  • Repair growth was solid, up mid-single digits, but slightly softer than our expectations heading into the quarter as we prioritized investments in Service excellence which should drive improved retention over time. These investments, together with our growing portfolio and continued high in our field mechanics should accelerate Maintenance and Repair top line growth in 2026 and beyond.

    維修業務成長穩健,實現了中等個位數的成長,但略低於我們本季初的預期,因為我們優先投資於卓越服務,這應該會隨著時間的推移提高客戶留存率。這些投資,加上我們不斷增長的投資組合以及我們現場技術人員持續的高水平,應該會加速 2026 年及以後的維護和維修收入成長。

  • Modernization organic sales grew 9% with notable strength in China where [set] more than doubled. And as Judy mentioned earlier, we are pleased with the progress in Modernization orders on our record backlog, up 30% at constant currency, which establishes a solid foundation for sustainable Modernization growth in 2026.

    現代化有機銷售額成長了 9%,其中中國市場表現特別強勁,[set] 的銷售額成長了一倍以上。正如朱迪之前提到的,我們對現代化訂單的進展感到滿意,我們創紀錄的積壓訂單增長了 30%(按固定匯率計算),這為 2026 年的可持續現代化增長奠定了堅實的基礎。

  • Note that our strong Modernization orders in the quarter include the large transport London projects that Judy mentioned earlier. We are just scratching the surface of the Modernization opportunity ahead. As units from past construction cycles continue to age, they should create a durable multi-year tailwind for Modernization.

    請注意,本季我們強勁的現代化訂單包括朱迪之前提到的倫敦大型交通項目。我們目前所看到的現代化機會只是冰山一角。隨著過去建設週期中的房屋逐漸老化,它們應該會為現代化建設創造持續多年的有利條件。

  • Service operating profit of $638 million increased $49 million at constant currency with higher volume, favorable pricing, productivity and gains on asset sales more than offsetting higher labor cost and mix and churn. Operating profit margins expanded 100 basis points to 25.5% in the quarter, the strongest margin expansion of the year, matching our record Service margins from last quarter. This performance reflects the continued strength and the discipline of our Service execution.

    服務業營業利潤為 6.38 億美元,以固定匯率計算增加了 4,900 萬美元,這主要得益於銷售成長、價格優勢、生產效率提高以及資產出售收益,這些因素足以抵消勞動力成本上升、產品組合變化和客戶流失等不利影響。本季營業利潤率成長 100 個基點至 25.5%,是今年以來利潤率增幅最大的一次,與上季創紀錄的服務利潤率持平。這一表現體現了我們部門執行工作的持續實力和嚴謹性。

  • Turning to New Equipment on slide 7. New Equipment organic sales declined 6% in the quarter as growth in EMEA and Asia Pacific more than offset by a decline in China and the Americas. EMEA sales grew 6%, driven by a strength in the Middle East and Southern Europe. Asia Pacific grew low single-digits, supported by solid growth in India and Japan, partially offset by weakness in Korea.

    請參閱第 7 張投影片,以了解新設備。本季新設備有機銷售額下降 6%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區的成長被中國和美洲地區的下降所抵消。EMEA 地區的銷售額成長了 6%,主要得益於中東和南歐市場的強勁表現。亞太地區經濟實現低個位數成長,主要得益於印度和日本的穩健成長,但部分被韓國的疲軟所抵消。

  • The Americas declined 5% and slightly below our expectations due to timing of project execution. However, with a strong order performance for six consecutive quarters, the region's growing backlog provides a clear line of sight for a return to positive New Equipment sales growth in 2026.

    由於專案執行時間的原因,美洲地區下滑了 5%,略低於我們的預期。然而,由於連續六個季度訂單表現強勁,該地區不斷增長的積壓訂單為 2026 年新設備銷售恢復正增長提供了清晰的前景。

  • Overall, our total New Equipment backlog increased 2% and after seven consecutive quarters of decline. And excluding China, New Equipment backlog grew 9%. And while China remains down on a year-over-year basis, we are encouraged by the improving order trend that Judy mentioned earlier.

    總體而言,我們的新設備積壓訂單總量增加了 2%,此前連續七個季度出現下滑。除中國以外,新設備積壓訂單增加了 9%。儘管中國市場同比仍出現下滑,但我們對朱迪之前提到的訂單改善趨勢感到鼓舞。

  • New Equipment operating profit of $47 million declined $15 million at constant currency and operating profit margins declined 110 basis points to 3.6%. As mentioned in previous quarters, the New Equipment margin rate is more sensitive to a small variations in operating profit given the smaller size of the business segment. The operating profit decline was driven by lower volumes and favorable price, tariff headwinds, and mix. These were partially offset by productivity, including the benefits of restructuring actions.

    新設備業務的營業利潤為 4,700 萬美元,以固定匯率計算下降了 1,500 萬美元,營業利潤率下降了 110 個基點至 3.6%。如前幾季所述,由於業務部門規模較小,新設備利潤率對營業利潤的微小波動更為敏感。營業利潤下降的原因是銷售下降、價格有利、關稅不利因素以及產品組合變化。這些損失部分被生產力提高所抵消,其中包括重組措施帶來的好處。

  • Moving to the full-year 2025 adjusted EPS bridge on slide 8. 2025 adjusted EPS increased $0.22 to $4.05, up 6% year-over-year, reflecting solid operational execution and the continued contribution from our Service business. Below the line, lower share count and non-controlling interest supported EPS growth, more than offsetting higher interest expense.

    接下來,我們將進入 2025 年全年調整後每股盈餘的過渡部分(見第 8 頁)。 2025 年調整後每股收益成長 0.22 美元至 4.05 美元,年增 6%,反映了穩健的營運執行以及我們服務業務的持續貢獻。在實際操作中,較低的股份數量和少數股東權益支撐了每股盈餘的成長,足以抵銷較高的利息支出。

  • Note that the operational bar on this chart now includes the impact of tariffs, which was previously combined with the impact of foreign exchange rates as SkyRise become part of the baseline for 2026. Additionally, we finished the year with our best fourth quarter cash flow since '16, supported by excellent collections and sustained working capital execution.

    請注意,此圖表中的營運柱現在包含了關稅的影響,而先前由於 SkyRise 成為 2026 年基準的一部分,關稅的影響與外匯匯率的影響合併在一起。此外,在良好的收款和持續的營運資本執行的支持下,我們實現了自 2016 年以來最好的第四季現金流。

  • Overall, we closed the year with solid operating performance, confirming the resilience of our strategic Service model with our record Modernization backlog, continued strength in Maintenance and Repair, and a growing New Equipment backlog, we are well positioned to deliver attractive growth again in 2026.

    總體而言,我們以穩健的營運業績結束了這一年,透過創紀錄的現代化改造積壓訂單、持續強勁的維護和維修業務以及不斷增長的新設備積壓訂單,證實了我們戰略服務模式的韌性,我們已做好充分準備,在 2026 年再次實現可觀的增長。

  • I will now turn it back to Judy to discuss our 2026 outlook.

    現在我將把話題交還給朱迪,讓她來討論我們對 2026 年的展望。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Cristina. Starting on slide 9 with the market outlook. We expect the global New Equipment market outlook to continue moving towards stabilization in 2026. Within the Americas, in 2025, the region grew low single-digits, with mid-single-digit growth in US and Canada, driven by demand in residential, healthcare, and data centers. We expect this positive trend to continue this year.

    謝謝你,克里斯蒂娜。從第9頁開始,展望市場前景。我們預計2026年全球新設備市場前景將持續趨於穩定。2025 年,美洲地區的經濟成長率為個位數低段,美國和加拿大的經濟成長率為個位數中段,這主要得益於住宅、醫療保健和資料中心的需求。我們預計這一積極趨勢將在今年繼續下去。

  • In EMEA, the market grew low single-digits in 2025 with notable strength in Spain, Germany, and the Middle East, partially offset by declines in Italy and France. We expect EMEA to continue to grow this year driven by broad-based growth in both Europe and the Middle East.

    2025 年,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的市場實現了低個位數成長,其中西班牙、德國和中東地區表現尤為強勁,但義大利和法國的下滑部分抵消了這一成長。我們預計,在歐洲和中東地區全面成長的推動下,歐洲、中東和非洲地區今年將持續成長。

  • Asia Pacific is anticipated to accelerate in 2026 after growing low single-digits in 2025. We anticipate this acceleration to be driven by steady growth in India and Southeast Asia, a slight improvement in Japan, and stabilization in Korea.

    預計亞太地區在 2025 年實現個位數低成長後,將於 2026 年加速成長。我們預計,印度和東南亞的穩定成長、日本的略微改善以及韓國的穩定將推動這一加速進程。

  • Within China, the pace of decline moderated in the second half of 2025 in line with our expectations, and we expect the trend to continue improving. In total, we expect Asia to decline in 2026.

    在中國,2025 年下半年的下降速度有所放緩,符合我們的預期,我們預期這一趨勢將持續改善。我們預計到 2026 年,亞洲整體經濟將會下滑。

  • Turning to Modernization. As of the end of 2025, there were almost 9 million units in the 23 million unit global installed base in the prime age for Modernization. This population includes units over 15 years old in China, and over 20 years old in the rest of the world.

    轉向現代化。截至 2025 年底,在全球 2,300 萬台已安裝設備中,有近 900 萬台設備處於現代化改造的黃金時期。該人口包括中國 15 歲以上的人口,以及世界其他地區 20 歲以上的人口。

  • These aging units drove a 13% increase in the Modernization market in 2025 in dollar terms, with synchronous growth globally. We expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future due to past construction cycles and continued aging of the installed base.

    這些老舊設備推動了現代化改造市場在 2025 年以美元計價成長 13%,全球市場也同步成長。由於過去的建設週期和已安裝設備的持續老化,我們預計這種趨勢在可預見的未來仍將持續。

  • Turning to our sales outlook on slide 10. Total organic sales are expected to increase low- to mid-single digits driven by accelerating growth in our Service segment as well as moderating declines in New Equipment sales, which are expected to be down low single-digits to flat.

    接下來請看第 10 頁的銷售展望。受服務業務成長加速以及新設備銷售下滑幅度收窄(預計下滑幅度為個位數低至持平)的推動,預計有機銷售總額將實現個位數低至中等水平的增長。

  • Within Service, we expect mid- to high-single-digit growth with acceleration in both Maintenance and Repair and Modernization, building on the strong ramp-up in the second half of 2025. Maintenance and Repair should benefit from this year's mid-single-digit portfolio growth, solid pricing, and strong field performance.

    在服務領域,我們預計維護和維修以及現代化改造將加速成長,實現中高個位數成長,並在 2025 年下半年強勁成長的基礎上繼續發展。維護和維修業務應受益於今年中等個位數的業務組合成長、穩健的定價和強勁的現場表現。

  • All of our regions are now running under the UpLift operating model with clear focus on Service excellence and customer centricity. In addition, in 2025, we continued to ramp up our resources, adding approximately 1,000 field professionals in anticipation of continued portfolio growth and strong demand for Repair work.

    我們所有地區現在都按照 UpLift 的營運模式運作,明確注重卓越服務和以客戶為中心。此外,在 2025 年,我們繼續增加資源投入,增加了約 1,000 名現場專業人員,以應對持續的業務成長和對維修工作的強勁需求。

  • The strong Repair demand is being driven by the same aging of the installed base that's supporting Modernization growth. Within Modernization, revenue growth should be driven by execution of our robust year-end backlog and continued aging of the installed base. Together, we expect a 1- to 2-point improvement in our Service organic growth rate over the 5% Service organic growth rate achieved in 2025.

    強勁的維修需求是由現有設備老化所驅動的,而設備老化也正是推動現代化發展的原因。在現代化方面,收入成長應由我們強勁的年末積壓訂單的執行以及已安裝基礎的持續老化來驅動。我們預計,到 2025 年,我們的服務有機成長率將比 5% 的服務有機成長率提高 1 到 2 個百分點。

  • New Equipment organic sales are expected to be down low single-digits to flat. We finished 2025 with a strong backlog that, excluding China, was up 9%. And in 2026, we should see growth in all regions, excluding China, with notable strength in Asia Pacific and with Americas returning to growth.

    預計新設備有機銷售額將出現個位數下滑或持平。2025 年底,我們的積壓訂單量強勁,除中國外,成長了 9%。到 2026 年,除中國以外,所有地區都應該實現成長,其中亞太地區成長尤為強勁,美洲也將恢復成長。

  • The backlog in China remained down significantly as of year-end, which will weigh on sales, particularly in the early part of the year. As a reminder, backlog conversion in China is typically around nine months. Therefore, a faster market recovery may positively impact our sales prospects due to the book and ship volumes.

    截至年底,中國市場的積壓訂單仍大幅下降,這將對銷售造成壓力,尤其是在今年年初。提醒一下,中國的積壓訂單轉換時間通常約為九個月。因此,市場更快復甦可能會對我們的銷售前景產生正面影響,因為這將帶動預訂量和出貨量的成長。

  • In addition, while New Equipment sales in China are expected to decline this year, we have seen a significant improvement in China New Equipment orders in the second half of 2025, an encouraging trend. On an actual currency basis, we expect total net sales of $15 billion to $15.3 billion. With this accelerated organic sales growth, we expect adjusted EPS to grow mid- to high single-digits for the full year.

    此外,雖然預計今年中國新設備銷售額將下降,但我們看到2025年下半年中國新設備訂單量顯著改善,這是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢。以實際貨幣計算,我們預計總淨銷售額為 150 億美元至 153 億美元。隨著有機銷售成長加速,我們預計全年調整後每股盈餘將實現中高個位數成長。

  • I'll now pass it back to Cristina to review the 2026 outlook in more detail.

    現在我將把這項工作交還給克里斯蒂娜,讓她更詳細地審查2026年的展望。

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Judy. Turning to our financial outlook on slide 11. We are expecting another year of solid profit growth, driven by the strength of our Service-driven strategy. At constant currency, adjusted operating profit is expected to grow $60 million to $100 million, accelerating profit growth on the back of a stronger top line.

    謝謝你,朱迪。接下來請看第 11 頁的財務展望。我們預計,在以服務為導向的策略優勢推動下,今年的利潤將持續穩健成長。以固定匯率計算,調整後的營業利潤預計將成長 6,000 萬美元至 1 億美元,在營收強勁成長的帶動下,獲利成長將加速。

  • As our New Equipment segment is stabilizing and Modernization continues a steady growth trajectory, we should be able to sustain this level. And given this dynamic, we expect adjusted free cash flow of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion this year.

    隨著新設備業務趨於穩定,現代化業務持續保持穩定成長,我們應該能夠維持這一水準。鑑於這種動態,我們預計今年的調整後自由現金流為 16 億美元至 17 億美元。

  • We will continue with our shareholder-oriented capital allocation strategy, targeting a dividend payout ratio of 40% and executing approximately $800 million share repurchases. Note, however, that we will remain flexible with other potential investments, including bolt-on acquisitions, which may impact our capital allocation in the year.

    我們將繼續執行以股東為導向的資本配置策略,目標是實現 40% 的股息支付率,並執行約 8 億美元的股票回購計畫。但請注意,我們將對其他潛在投資保持靈活性,包括補充收購,這可能會影響我們今年的資本配置。

  • Turning to slide 12. We have delivered strong profit growth every year since the spin, driven by sustained Service top line growth and consistent margin expansion, which increased 350 basis points over the period. As we look to 2026, we are confident our Service-driven strategy will continue to support this trend.

    翻到第12張投影片。自分拆以來,我們每年都實現了強勁的利潤增長,這得益於服務收入的持續增長和利潤率的持續擴張,在此期間利潤率增長了 350 個基點。展望 2026 年,我們相信以服務為導向的策略將繼續支持這一趨勢。

  • We remain committed to accelerating Service top line through volume and value growth in Maintenance and Repair while also capturing the tremendous Modernization opportunities ahead. We will continue to drive productivity through increasing density and digital capabilities while also capturing the year-over-year cost benefits from the transformation programs finalized in 2025.

    我們將繼續致力於透過維護和維修的數量和價值增長來加速服務收入成長,同時抓住未來巨大的現代化機會。我們將繼續透過提高密度和數位化能力來提高生產力,同時從 2025 年完成的轉型計畫中獲得逐年降低成本的效益。

  • These positive contributors will partially be offset by wage inflation, mix and churn. And in New Equipment, we expect the small headwinds from commodities, although relative to our annual spend in this category, this impact is expected to be modest. As we execute the New Equipment backlog, we expect lower margin to flow through the P&L.

    這些正面因素將被薪資上漲、產品組合變化和人員流動部分抵消。在新設備方面,我們預計大宗商品價格會略微上漲,但相對於我們在該類別中的年度支出而言,這種影響預計不會太大。隨著新設備積壓訂單的執行,我們預期利潤率會下降,並反映在損益表中。

  • In Service, we continue to invest in Service excellence as we have seen very good results in customer satisfaction, demonstrated by the stabilization of our retention rate in our most valuable markets. We are confident that these investments will support continued strength in the top line.

    在服務方面,我們繼續投資於卓越服務,因為我們在客戶滿意度方面取得了非常好的成果,這體現在我們最有價值的市場中客戶留存率的穩定。我們相信這些投資將有助於公司營收持續保持強勁成長動能。

  • Looking at the first quarter, we expect Service top line to ramp up sequentially with first quarter Service organic sales growth of approximately 6% on the back of a strong execution in Repair and Modernization. New Equipment top line is expected to be down in a similar range as the fourth quarter, so we anticipate it will improve as the year progresses on the back of the positive backlog at year-end. EPS in the quarter is expected to be around flat.

    展望第一季度,我們預計服務收入將環比增長,第一季服務有機銷售額增長約 6%,這主要得益於維修和現代化改造業務的強勁表現。新設備收入預計將與第四季類似下降,因此我們預計隨著年底積壓訂單的增加,這一數字將在今年內有所改善。預計本季每股收益將與上季持平。

  • Turning to slide 13. 2025 has been a year of transformation of our operating model. We have navigated external macro and geopolitical challenges while building a foundation of Service excellence and customer centricity. In 2026, we are poised and ready to accelerate our top line and deliver a strong operational performance.

    翻到第 13 頁。 2025 年是我們營運模式轉型的一年。我們克服了外部宏觀和地緣政治挑戰,同時建立了卓越服務和以客戶為中心的基礎。2026年,我們已做好充分準備,加速提升營收,並實現強勁的營運表現。

  • Organic sales growth is expected to improve from flat in 2025 to up 3% in 2026 at the midpoint of the guide. The improvement is driven by acceleration of both Maintenance and Repair and Modernization, coupled with a stabilizing New Equipment sales.

    根據該預測的中點,有機銷售成長預計將從 2025 年的持平改善至 2026 年成長 3%。這項改善得益於維護、維修和現代化進程的加快,以及新設備銷售的趨於穩定。

  • Constant currency adjusted operating profit growth at the midpoint of the guide is expected to increase over 70% compared to last year. This is an indicator of our improving operational performance due to an accelerating top line, stabilizing retention rate, smart pricing, and disciplined execution. Taken together, we expect mid- to high single-digit growth in adjusted EPS.

    以固定匯率調整後的營業利益成長率(請參閱此指引的中點)預計將比去年成長超過 70%。這表明,由於營收成長加速、客戶留存率趨於穩定、定價策略合理以及執行力強,我們的營運績效正在不斷提高。綜合來看,我們預期調整後每股盈餘將達到中高個位數成長。

  • While at the midpoint of the guide, this year's adjusted EPS growth is similar to last year's, our operational performance is accelerating as we capture the benefits of past investments and our cost savings initiatives, while leveraging the industry's largest maintenance portfolio: our digital capabilities and our best-in-class productivity.

    雖然截至本指南中期,今年的調整後每股收益成長與去年相似,但隨著我們獲得過去投資和成本節約舉措的收益,同時利用業內最大的維護組合(我們的數位化能力和一流的生產力),我們的營運業績正在加速成長。

  • We are excited about the opportunities in front of us, and we have the resources, talent, and strategy in place to capitalize on them in 2026. Longer term, we remain confident that our Service-driven strategy will continue to deliver sustainable shareholder value.

    我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮,我們已經具備了在 2026 年抓住這些機會所需的資源、人才和策略。從長遠來看,我們仍然相信,我們以服務為導向的策略將繼續為股東創造可持續的價值。

  • With that, I will ask kindly Krista to please open the line for questions. Thank you.

    接下來,我懇請克麗斯塔女士開立提問專線。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

    (操作說明)Amit Mehrotra,瑞銀集團。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • Judy, maybe you can talk about growth expectations for Maintenance and Repair within the Services segment for '26 and then how you expect Service profit to trend relative to the mid- to high single-digit revenue growth outlook in that segment? And then maybe related to that, anything you could talk about on the progress you're making on retention and churn as well? Thank you.

    朱迪,或許你可以談談 2026 年服務部門中維護和維修業務的成長預期,以及你預計該部門服務利潤相對於中高個位數收入增長前景的趨勢?另外,您能否談談在客戶留存和客戶流失方面的進展?謝謝。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Thanks, Amit. Let me talk to the growth expectations. I'll ask Cristina to talk to the profit expectations and then we'll circle back on retention and what we're seeing.

    當然。謝謝你,阿米特。讓我談談成長預期。我會請克里斯蒂娜談談獲利預期,然後我們再來討論客戶留存率以及我們目前看到的情況。

  • Listen, we ended the year, obviously, at a 5% Service top line growth, and we were targeting a little bit higher on Repair, although we did see our Repair trajectory stabilize and actually be much better in the second half than the first half.

    聽著,很顯然,我們今年的服務收入成長了 5%,而我們對維修業務的目標略高一些,儘管我們看到維修業務的發展軌跡趨於穩定,並且在下半年比上半年好得多。

  • As we go into this year, we are expecting our Repair rates to ramp up to be 10%-plus. So that will bring Maintenance and Repair up higher, and we're actually expecting at least 1 point gain in Maintenance as well. That take that with Modernization backlog conversion, and that's why we felt that we'd be 1 to 2 points higher. And we have line of sight to that with our backlog.

    今年以來,我們預計維修率將上升 10% 以上。這樣一來,維護和修理技能就會提升,我們實際上預期維護技能至少也會提升 1 點。再加上現代化積壓工作的轉換率,所以我們覺得我們的轉換率會高出 1 到 2 個百分點。而從我們積壓的工作來看,我們完全可以預見這一點。

  • Cristina?

    克里斯蒂娜?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. And Amit, on the profit and margin rate side, so this acceleration of top line should also flow through profit, and we expect an acceleration of Service contribution in the year. In '25, we contributed [PTY] versus previous year, $150 million at constant currency in 2022 -- 2026 is going to be $200 million. So very consistent with the acceleration of dollar profit strategy that we have been selling over time.

    是的。阿米特,就利潤和毛利率而言,營收的加速成長也應該會帶動利潤成長,我們預計今年服務業務的貢獻將會加速成長。2025 年,我們貢獻了 [PTY] 1.5 億美元(以固定匯率計算),2022 年為 1.5 億美元,2026 年將達到 2 億美元。這與我們一直以來所推行的美元獲利加速成長策略非常一致。

  • And look, when you look back, we have delivered a very strong performance in our Service business consistently in the last five years. We have grown Service margins by 40, 50, and 60 basis points every year. We are expecting margin expansion again in 2026.

    回顧過去,我們過去五年在服務業務方面一直保持著非常強勁的業績。我們每年的服務利潤率都成長了 40、50 和 60 個基點。我們預計2026年利潤率將再次擴張。

  • This is on the back of growth in volumes. We're also improving our price capabilities being much more adapted to customer demands, much more smart pricing. We also have the benefits of productivity and the UpLift run rate.

    這是在銷量成長的推動下實現的。我們也不斷提升定價能力,使其更貼合客戶需求,實現更智慧的定價。我們也享有生產力提升和 UpLift 運行速度的好處。

  • On the headwind perspective, we have the investments we are placing in the stabilization of the cancellation rate that Judy will talk to in a minute. But we are very positive about the results of these investments in 2025. So we will continue selectively investing in customer excellence. All in all, very strong Service performance expected for 2026.

    從不利因素的角度來看,我們正在進行投資以穩定取消率,朱迪稍後會談到這一點。但我們對這些投資在 2025 年的成果非常樂觀。因此,我們將繼續有選擇地投資於提升客戶體驗。總而言之,預計2026年服務業表現將非常強勁。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And listen, I couldn't be more pleased with our Service teams. And I think we are. I'm convinced we're making the right investments in Service quality and Service excellence. It matters to our customers, and it will as we've said all throughout 2025, make a difference in retention rate in '26, '27, and '28.

    是的。說實話,我對我們的服務團隊非常滿意。我認為我們是。我確信我們在服務品質和服務卓越性方面的投資是正確的。這對我們的客戶來說很重要,而且正如我們在 2025 年一直所說的那樣,它將對 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年的客戶留存率產生影響。

  • Our goal in '25 was to stabilize that retention rate after seeing a decline from '24 to '25. And ex China, we're pleased to say that we've done that. And now, we expect small growth to start yielding in '26. But what I would tell you is we're very focused on several key markets.

    我們在 2025 年的目標是穩定客戶留存率,因為 2024 年至 2025 年客戶留存率下降。除中國以外,我們很高興地說,我們已經做到了這一點。現在,我們預計小幅成長將在 2026 年開始產生效益。但我可以告訴你的是,我們非常關注幾個關鍵市場。

  • We want to ensure that we are retaining the right units in our portfolio. Having the largest portfolio is wonderful at 2.5 million units. But we want to make sure that every unit is not just accretive, but we continue to retain the key units that have the largest profit contribution.

    我們希望確保我們的投資組合中保留合適的資產。擁有 250 萬套的最大投資組合真是太棒了。但我們希望確保每個部門不僅能增加利潤,還能繼續保留那些利潤貢獻最大的關鍵部門。

  • In the past, we've grown in more of the emerging markets. So while the portfolio may not grow at the same rate in 2026 at that 4% that we're very proud of, it will grow in terms of the value it contributes. Where you'll be able to measure that, Amit, and everyone listening is in our Maintenance revenue. You'll be able to measure it in our Repair revenue, which is where it will show up, and then we'll share retention trends as we go through the year.

    過去,我們在新興市場取得了更大的發展。因此,雖然該投資組合在 2026 年可能不會像我們引以為傲的那樣以 4% 的速度成長,但它所創造的價值將會成長。阿米特,你可以衡量這一點,所有在聽的人都可以從我們的維護收入中看出。您可以在我們的維修收入中衡量它,它會顯示在那裡,然後我們將在一年中分享客戶留存趨勢。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • And just as a quick follow-up on the New Equipment margins. Maybe just a question on how much do you think this trajectory is structural versus cyclical? Obviously, the China market, which is your highest margin New Equipment market is tough. So maybe it's just cyclical.

    最後,我想快速補充一下關於新設備利潤率的問題。或許可以問一下,您認為這種發展軌跡有多少是結構性的,又有多少是週期性的?顯然,中國市場,也就是你們利潤最高的新設備市場,競爭非常激烈。所以也許這只是一個循環。

  • But obviously, there's a need to capture more Service revenues. So I'm just trying to understand the price competition there and whether you can bounce that trajectory back up if you get some macro tailwinds?

    但很顯然,我們需要獲得更多的服務收入。所以我想了解那裡的價格競爭情況,以及如果遇到一些宏觀利好因素,能否扭轉價格上漲的趨勢?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. No, look, Amit, on the New Equipment side, the New Equipment segment is a very small piece of our business. And it will become smaller as we continue executing our Service-based strategy. The margins are going to be a headwind in 2026 because of the ongoing decline of volumes, mainly coming from China. And as you know, China is our highest margin geography.

    是的。不,你看,阿米特,就新設備而言,新設備業務在我們業務中所佔比例非常小。隨著我們繼續執行以服務為導向的策略,它的規模將會越來越小。由於銷售量持續下滑(主要來自中國),2026 年利潤率將面臨不利影響。如你所知,中國是我們利潤率最高的地區。

  • We have the benefits from the China transformation restructuring an UpLift, but most of the benefits are in the baseline. The run rate from China transformation is $20 million smaller in the year-on-year basis than in 2025. Commodities are also a small headwind, very small in the broader scheme of things on annual spend in this category, but it is a matter of navigating through the backlog and stabilizing the New Equipment segment. In margin rate terms, we expect 2026 to land at the same rate of Q4 2025.

    我們從中國轉型重組和提升中受益,但大部分益處都體現在基層。中國轉型帶來的經濟效益以年計算將比 2025 年減少 2,000 萬美元。大宗商品也是一個小小的阻力,雖然在這個類別的年度支出中佔比很小,但關鍵在於如何解決積壓訂單並穩定新設備市場。就利率而言,我們預計 2026 年的利率將與 2025 年第四季的利率相同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

    喬‧奧迪亞,富國銀行。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • Can you add a little bit more color around the Service margin in the fourth quarter? And when you get 100 bps year-over-year growth, think about Mod as being the lowest margin within that portfolio, Repair being the highest, Repair was a little lighter than you expected.

    能否再詳細分析一下第四季的服務利潤率?當你獲得 100 個基點的同比增長時,要知道 Mod 是該投資組合中利潤率最低的,而 Repair 是利潤率最高的,所以 Repair 的利潤率比你預期的要低一些。

  • And so when you think about maybe some of the mix components within that, that wouldn't be helpful. And so what you're doing to drive the margin expansion in each one of those individual pieces and specifically what you were able to achieve in margins?

    所以,當你考慮其中的一些混合成分時,那可能就沒什麼幫助了。那麼,為了提高每個產品的利潤率,你們採取了哪些措施?具體來說,你們在利潤率方面取得了哪些成就?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me let Cristina go through some of the specifics, Joe, but let me start by saying when you think about it, we've -- as we've seen this impending opportunity in Modernization, we've known that that has the potential, obviously, to be dilutive to the Service segment.

    是的。喬,我請克里斯蒂娜來詳細介紹一下,但首先我想說的是,仔細想想,我們已經看到了現代化帶來的這個機會,我們也知道,這顯然有可能稀釋服務部門的利益。

  • The good news is with the Repair volumes growing, and they ended the year at 5%. They're still growing at a larger -- even though the rate's 5%, it's a larger bucket of core revenue to grow on than Mod. I will tell you, though, we strategically have focused on Modernization, seeing this large market that was going to continue to grow as we call it, almost evergreen.

    好消息是維修量有所增長,年底達到了 5%。即使成長率只有 5%,它們仍然以更大的速度成長——因為與 Mod 相比,它們的核心收入來源更大,成長空間也更大。不過我可以告訴你,我們從策略上一直專注於現代化,因為我們看到了這個巨大的市場,它將會像我們所說的那樣持續成長,幾乎是常青市場。

  • And so we industrialized our Modernization approach. We've integrated it into many of our New Equipment factories. We have a common supply chain, so we're getting scale benefits. We have dedicated and specialized installers, specialized sales reps. And now that the Modernization scale is starting to emerge, we're seeing the margins grow as well.

    於是,我們實現了現代化過程的工業化。我們已將其整合到我們許多新設備工廠中。我們擁有共同的供應鏈,因此能夠獲得規模效益。我們擁有專業的安裝人員和銷售代表。現在,隨著現代化規模開始顯現,我們看到利潤空間也在擴大。

  • So we're pleased to say, again, the Modernization margins are getting much closer to the 10% medium-term target we set. Originally, we had talked about first surpassing New Equipment margins. We've done that. Now we're at the point where it should be more than double New Equipment margins even if the New Equipment margins are typically around 5%. So we came very close to that as we ended the year, and I think with more scale you'll see more of that.

    因此,我們很高興地再次宣布,現代化利潤率正越來越接近我們設定的 10% 的中期目標。最初,我們討論的是先超越新設備利潤率。我們已經做到了。現在,即使新設備的利潤率通常在 5% 左右,新設備的利潤率也應該超過新設備的兩倍。所以,在年底的時候,我們離目標非常接近了,我認為隨著規模的擴大,你會看到更多這樣的結果。

  • Just one specific call out though on Modernization revenue growth. We did see it pretty much everywhere. But our China team, because of the Mod bond stimulus program had significant orders in the third quarter and their orders were up over 35% for the year, pretty flat in the fourth quarter because they happened earlier this year.

    不過,關於現代化收入成長,我還是想特別提一下。我們幾乎到處都能看到它。但由於貨幣政策刺激計劃,我們的中國團隊在第三季度獲得了大量訂單,全年訂單量增長超過 35%,而第四季度訂單量則基本持平,因為這些訂單是在今年早些時候下的。

  • But our Mod revenue in China, Sally and the team really turned the revenue very quickly. And that revenue grew 100% in the fourth quarter year-over-year and was up 75% full year. So Mod margins look strong in China, just like the New Equipment margins do, but let me let Cristina add some more comments.

    但是,Sally 和她的團隊真的很快就扭轉了我們在中國 Mod 的收入局面。第四季營收年增 100%,全年年增 75%。所以,在中國,Mod的利潤率看起來很強勁,就像新設備的利潤率一樣,但還是讓Cristina補充一些評論吧。

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Joe, so I can give you more color on the components below the 100 basis points margin expansion in Service. And let me start by saying we are very pleased with this strong performance and encouraged by the ability to continue growing Service margins in the future.

    是的。Joe,這樣我就可以更詳細地向你介紹服務業利潤率擴張 100 個基點以下的各個組成部分。首先,我想說我們對這強勁的業績非常滿意,並對未來繼續提高服務利潤率的能力感到鼓舞。

  • So as Judy pointed out, Repair accelerated and Repair has the highest margin within the Service segment. Modernization margins are ramping up. We increased 50 basis point Modernization margin quarter-over-quarter, Q4 versus Q3.

    正如朱迪所指出的那樣,維修業務發展迅速,而且維修業務在服務領域中利潤率最高。現代化帶來的效益正在迅速成長。第四季與第三季相比,我們的現代化改造利潤率提高了 50 個基點。

  • And there is a third component that is a one-time effect of the sale of assets of a few transaction of Service centers. This is related to our Service transformation strategy. We are changing our operating model as you know. And we are thinking on models that will benefit customer experience by reducing lead time in the delivery of spare parts.

    第三個組成部分是出售部分服務中心資產的一次性影響。這與我們的服務轉型策略有關。如您所知,我們正在改變營運模式。我們正在考慮如何透過縮短備件交付週期來改善客戶體驗。

  • So we have sold a few Service centers because we are outsourcing to a third party that can handle the process more efficiently, and this was $14 million in the quarter. If we exclude this effect, Service margins would have expanded 40 basis points, which is still a very solid expansion.

    因此,我們出售了一些服務中心,因為我們將業務外包給了能夠更有效率地處理流程的第三方,本季這部分收入為 1,400 萬美元。如果排除這一影響,服務利潤率將成長 40 個基點,這仍然是一個非常穩健的成長。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. And then there's -- is there a go-forward benefit from the transactional Service centers effects such that contribution in the quarter is a run rate contribution? Or was it more one-time in nature?

    知道了。謝謝。此外,交易服務中心的影響是否會帶來持續的收益,使得本季的貢獻成為持續的貢獻?或者它更像是一次性的事件?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • That was more one-time in nature, but the benefit will be retention rates because, again, it wasn't core for us to be managing some of our own spare parts. We have a third party now that that is their business; better central location for that for quicker and more efficient spare parts delivery so we can get the right part to our mechanic to repair the unit in a shorter cycle time.

    那件事本質上是一次性的,但好處是能提高員工留存率,因為管理我們自己的一些備件並不是我們的核心業務。我們現在委託第三方公司負責這項工作;他們擁有更好的中心位置,可以更快、更有效率地交付備件,這樣我們就可以更快地將合適的零件送到我們的機械師手中,從而在更短的周期內修理設備。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. And then could you just talk a little bit about the China stimulus program with a little bit of color on how that's grown? And so if we go back to when it started and the size of it? What the size of it was in '25? And how you're thinking about it in '26?

    知道了。好的。然後能否簡單談談中國的刺激計劃,並具體介紹一下該計劃的發展?那麼,如果我們回顧一下它最初的規模呢?1925年它的規模有多大?那麼,你對2026年有什麼想法呢?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. And it's still -- it's young and yet it's continuing to evolve. The whole focus was actually twofold from the Chinese government when this was started in about mid-2024. It was to make living more attractive for Chinese citizens, especially those that were getting older in some older residential buildings and also to drive consumption as part of the government's focus on driving consumption in a deflationary environment.

    當然。它仍然很年輕,而且還在不斷發展。中國政府在 2024 年年中左右啟動這項計畫時,其關注點實際上有兩個面向。其目的是為了讓中國公民的生活更具吸引力,特別是那些居住在一些老舊住宅樓裡的老年人,同時也是為了刺激消費,這是政府在通貨緊縮環境下刺激消費戰略的一部分。

  • In 2024, the size of the program was about 80,000 units that could be modernized, again, fully funded by the government, but needing to be supported by local governments where they would put forward the number of units they wanted to do. That ramped up to 120,000 in 2025.

    到 2024 年,該計劃的規模約為 80,000 套可進行現代化改造的房屋,同樣由政府全額資助,但需要地方政府的支持,地方政府將提出他們想要改造的房屋數量。到 2025 年,這一數字將增加到 12 萬。

  • And I think our team, from a share perspective, without giving any numbers, did an excellent job capturing the market due to our customer connections, our agents and distributors, and our relationships. And we did deliver all of our units in year, which is a key element of the program. And that's really what drove it.

    我認為,從市場份額的角度來看(不提供具體數字),我們的團隊憑藉與客戶的聯繫、代理商和分銷商的關係,在佔領市場方面做得非常出色。我們按時交付了所有單元,這是該計劃的關鍵要素。而這才是真正推動這件事發生的根本原因。

  • Again, full stimulus fully funded by the government. The government itself has said that program will continue in 2026 at least the level comparable to 2025. We've not seen if it's going to increase yet. We're obviously watching signals because right now, it was a one-value program where we would fit solutions to fit that CNY150,000.

    再次強調,刺激方案將完全由政府出資。政府方面表示,該計劃將在 2026 年繼續實施,至少將保持與 2025 年相當的水平。我們目前還無法確定它是否會繼續成長。我們顯然在關注訊號,因為目前這是一個單一價值的方案,我們會根據15萬元人民幣的預算來制定解決方案。

  • We believe that there's been rational assessment of -- well, if you have taller buildings that need more content and more equipment, maybe we should have different levels versus just one value. So we think it's going to continue to evolve, but we view it as positive in 2026. It should look at least like 2025, and our Otis team is prepared to capitalize on that.

    我們認為,經過理性評估——嗯,如果你有更高的建築物,需要更多的內容和設備,也許我們應該有不同的級別,而不是只有一個價值。所以我們認為它會繼續發展,但我們認為它在 2026 年的前景是積極的。至少到 2025 年應該會是什麼樣子,我們的奧的斯團隊已經準備好抓住這個機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Housden, RBC Capital Markets.

    Nick Housden,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Nick Housden - Analyst

    Nick Housden - Analyst

  • My first one is on Modernization. So the Mod backlog was up 30%, which is a very strong number. And you've discussed how you've been industrializing your Modernization business. So it would be good just to understand how you think about the annual growth potential in that business in the next couple of years? Because I don't think any of us are expecting 30% numbers but just thinking about how you pencil in the acceleration in that business?

    我的第一篇是關於現代化的。因此,Mod 積壓量增加了 30%,這是一個非常高的數字。您也討論過您是如何實現現代化業務的產業化。所以,我想了解一下您對該業務未來幾年的年度成長潛力有何看法?因為我認為我們誰都不會預期成長30%,但我們只是在思考如何將這種業務加速成長的趨勢納入預算?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Nick, thank you for asking. We've seen this market starting to grow, and now it's growing at some pretty healthy rates. I shared in my opening comments, we think the market segment grew 13% in 2025. And you could tell from the arrow that's going to continue to go up.

    是的,尼克,謝謝你的關心。我們已經看到這個市場開始成長,現在它的成長速度相當可觀。我在開場白中提到,我們認為該細分市場在 2025 年將成長 13%。從箭頭可以看出,它還會繼續上升。

  • It's not as well instrumented in terms of segment measures as the New Equipment market, where most of the providers share information to a neutral third party. So some of this -- most of this is actually based on our own estimates. But we are seeing demand increase.

    與新設備市場相比,該市場在細分指標方面沒有那麼完善,因為大多數供應商都會向中立的第三方分享資訊。所以,其中一部分——或者說大部分——實際上是基於我們自己的估計。但我們看到需求正在成長。

  • We originally started in this market primarily with full replacements. But in lots of discussions, remember, half of the installed base is residential, multifamily across the globe. In so many discussions with our customers, they were looking for alternative ways to phase this in over time.

    我們最初進入這個市場主要是做整機更換。但在許多討論中,請記住,全球一半的安裝基礎是住宅和多戶住宅。在與客戶的多次討論中,他們都在尋找分階段實施的替代方案。

  • So earlier in the year, we introduced our Arise package set in EMEA, which has the largest population of aged units because just due to the aging in Europe and the building construction cycles. And between the full replacements, the Mod bond stimulus in China, and again, these partial replacements that let people with our tools budget for this and do it over multiple years and have less disruption in office buildings and other places, we are seeing this market pick up significantly.

    所以今年早些時候,我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區推出了 Arise 套餐,該地區擁有最多的老舊房屋,這主要是由於歐洲人口老化和建築施工週期造成的。鑑於全面更換、中國的MOD債券刺激計劃,以及這些部分更換措施(這些措施讓人們能夠利用我們的工具進行預算,並在多年內完成,從而減少對辦公大樓和其他場所的干擾),我們看到這個市場正在顯著回暖。

  • If you look even this year on our orders, first quarter, we were up 12%; second quarter, 22%; third quarter, 27%; and 43% in the fourth quarter. I mentioned transport for London, that is a major several decade-long project between Maintenance and Modernization that we'll be doing for the London underground. So we have a combination of volume business and major projects business.

    即使看看我們今年的訂單狀況,第一季成長了 12%;第二季成長了 22%;第三季成長了 27%;第四季成長了 43%。我提到了倫敦交通,這是一個為期數十年的重大項目,涵蓋了倫敦地鐵的維護和現代化改造。所以我們既有小額業務,也有大型專案業務。

  • So I don't believe you'll see us convert that 30%, I know, for sure, in 2026 because there are multiyear major projects in there, too. But we see a steady growth rate in the market, and it is growing in every region and every country where we do business, which gets us excited.

    所以我不認為我們會在 2026 年實現那 30% 的目標,我敢肯定,因為其中也包含多年期的重大項目。但我們看到市場呈現穩定的成長態勢,而且在我們開展業務的每個地區和每個國家都在成長,這讓我們感到非常興奮。

  • Lastly, just in terms of the how, we did specialize our sales force for this. We created packages, so it's easier to show the value proposition for our customers. We provide capital planning tools so they can get ready financially. Then we have the operations side, ready, as I mentioned earlier, and then the installation side.

    最後,就具體方法而言,我們確實為此專門培訓了銷售團隊。我們創建了套餐,這樣更容易向客戶展示價值主張。我們提供資本規劃工具,幫助他們做好財務準備。然後是營運方面,正如我之前提到的,一切準備就緒,然後是安裝方面。

  • What we want to do is become very productive, have a lot of -- and I think we are getting through the learning curve with our installation crews. And then we believe this will then have the ultimate benefit of the conversion and the retention on Service.

    我們想要做的就是提高生產力,擁有很多東西——而且我認為我們的安裝團隊正在克服學習曲線。我們相信,這最終將帶來服務轉換率和用戶留存率的提升。

  • So for us, Modernization, it's another lubricant on the flywheel but it will drive its own significant revenue stream and margin and more importantly, profit contribution in the near term. And I think planning it in the teens, if not more, is an appropriate place to plan.

    因此,對我們來說,現代化就像是給飛輪上的另一個潤滑劑,但它將在短期內帶來可觀的收入和利潤,更重要的是,帶來​​可觀的利潤貢獻。我認為,如果不是更早的話,在十幾歲的時候開始規劃是一個合適的時機。

  • Nick Housden - Analyst

    Nick Housden - Analyst

  • That's great. Thanks. And then my second question is I was just wondering if we could maybe unpack the EPS outlook a little bit more. It looks like it's slightly below what the market was expecting in mid- to high single-digits.

    那太棒了。謝謝。我的第二個問題是,我想知道我們是否可以更詳細地分析一下每股盈餘展望。看起來比市場預期的個位數中高段略低。

  • I'm just wondering what it will take to get back to the 10%-plus ambitions that you've previously discussed at Investor Day? Mod growth this year should be good. You mentioned Repair, I think you said growing 10% this year. There's an FX tailwind as well. So seeing potentially only mid-single-digit EPS growth in that guidance has maybe looked a little conservative to me. So just curious to hear your thoughts there.

    我只是想知道,要實現您之前在投資者日上提到的10%以上的成長目標,需要做些什麼?今年模組市場的成長應該會不錯。你提到了維修業,我記得你說過今年成長10%。FX也有順風。因此,該指引中可能只有個位數的中段每股盈餘成長,在我看來可能有點保守了。所以很好奇想聽聽你的看法。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I will have Cristina -- listen, we chose to be conservative. I just want to be very transparent about that because we just want to make sure that what we commit, we deliver and anything we continue to do, which we'll be happy to talk about above and beyond that, we will deliver that to our shareholders as well. But we did choose to start conservative for the year.

    是的,我會帶克里斯蒂娜——聽著,我們選擇了保守路線。我只是想對此保持高度透明,因為我們只想確保我們承諾的事情都能兌現,而且我們將繼續做的任何事情(我們很樂意就此展開討論),我們也會將這些成果交付給我們的股東。但我們選擇在今年伊始採取保守策略。

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And from the components perspective, we -- the midpoint of the guide, Nick, is 6% EPS growth, that is around $0.23. And the operational component of that growth is much stronger in '26 than in 2025. We are increasing from $0.09 year-over-year growth in 2025 to $0.15 in 2026. And this is on the back of the acceleration of operating profit in Service. As I said before, Service operating profit is going to grow to $100 million at constant currency in the year.

    從構成要素來看,尼克,我們-指引的中點是每股盈餘成長6%,大約是0.23美元。而且,2026年營運方面的成長比2025年強勁許多。我們預計,2025 年的年增長率將達到 0.09 美元,2026 年將達到 0.15 美元。這是得益於服務業務營業利潤的加速成長。正如我之前所說,服務業務的營業利潤以固定匯率計算,今年將成長至 1 億美元。

  • On the other side, we have FX that is a little bit favorable. We are talking about $0.08 in 2026. And it can be even more favorable because we are assuming euro at EUR1.18. And yesterday, the spot was EUR1.20. So the stronger FX, the more EPS we will deliver.

    另一方面,外匯市場略微有利。我們說的是2026年的0.08美元。而且情況可能更有利,因為我們假設歐元兌美元匯率為1.18。而昨天,即期匯率為1.20。因此,匯率越強,我們的每股盈餘就越高。

  • Below the line, we expect this to be roughly flattish because we have the headwinds of the interest rate that is essentially the refinancing of the debt that comes mature and interest rates are now higher than five years ago. But we have the ongoing benefits from sure buyback, $800 million guided for the year and a little bit positive on the tax rate. We are expecting to finish the year at 24.5%.

    在基準線以下,我們預計情況將大致平穩,因為我們面臨利率方面的不利因素,這本質上是對到期債務進行再融資,而目前的利率高於五年前。但我們持續受惠於股票回購,預計全年回購額將達到 8 億美元,而且稅率方面也略有利好。我們預計今年年底的轉換率為 24.5%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

    克里斯‧史奈德,摩根士丹利。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about maybe the margin opportunity if we look beyond '26. The company has delivered a really impressive margin expansion over the last two, three years. without much help from the market. But a lot of that was driven by the restructuring programs, both the UpLift savings and the China transformation savings.

    我想問一下,如果我們把目光放遠到 2026 年以後,利潤空間會有多大的機會。過去兩三年,該公司在市場沒有提供太多幫助的情況下,實現了非常可觀的利潤率成長。但其中許多都是由重組計劃推動的,包括 UpLift 計劃節省的成本和中國轉型計劃節省的成本。

  • I think over the last -- '24 to '26, you guys have in the slides that it was, I think, $240 million. So I guess my question is, what is the ability here to expand margins as we look beyond these restructuring programs and just more on a core operational basis for the business?

    我認為在過去的——2024 年至 2026 年,你們在幻燈片中顯示,金額是 2.4 億美元。所以我想問的是,當我們不再著眼於這些重組計劃,而是更多地從業務的核心營運層面著眼時,我們有多大能力擴大利潤率?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Chris. So first, let me comment on the restructuring program because definitely, they have been a tailwind in margin but we have also navigated a significant deterioration of the New Equipment market worldwide, particularly in China.

    是的,克里斯。首先,我想談談重組計劃,因為毫無疑問,它對利潤率起到了推動作用,但我們也經歷了全球新設備市場,特別是中國新設備市場的顯著惡化。

  • So when you look at our top line, New Equipment has been a drag in growth of $400 million-ish in '24 -- in '25, and we are expecting to trend towards stabilization still around $100 million this year although it can be better, depending on China because China has their book and ship. So it's true that we have those tailwinds, but they have also helped us to navigate the situation regarding the equipment.

    因此,從我們的營收來看,新設備在 2024 年拖累了約 4 億美元的成長——在 2025 年,我們預計今年將趨於穩定,仍約為 1 億美元,儘管情況可能會好轉,這取決於中國的情況,因為中國有他們的訂單和發貨。所以,我們確實有這些順風,但它們也幫助我們應對了設備方面的問題。

  • On the other side, I want to emphasize the strength of our Service business. On Service, we continue delivering mining expansion beyond UpLift. And that's thanks to the increased productivity. We are proud to be best-in-class in the industry in our productivity.

    另一方面,我想強調我們服務業務的優勢。在服務方面,我們將繼續提供超越 UpLift 的採礦擴展服務。這都得益於生產力的提升。我們為在生產效率方面達到行業領先水平而感到自豪。

  • We are also connecting units with IoT, more than 1.1 million or 1.1 million units connected in 2025. And as we continue growing the portfolio, we will have more density and more productivity. In addition to that, pricing should also help to expand margin rates because pricing has a higher flow-through in profit, and we have a few pricing actions, again, very targeted to adapt our price to customer demand that will benefit in '26 and beyond.

    我們還將設備與物聯網連接起來,到 2025 年將連接超過 110 萬台設備。隨著我們不斷擴大投資組合,我們將擁有更高的密度和更高的生產力。除此之外,定價還有助於提高利潤率,因為定價對利潤的傳導作用更大,而且我們還有一些定價措施,這些措施都是有針對性的,旨在根據客戶需求調整價格,這將使我們在 2026 年及以後受益。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Chris, I would just sum it up to say, without top line growth, we've achieved this margin expansion and this profit contribution. Just think what we can do, not just think, our plan is to drive growth in our company.

    是的,克里斯,我只想總結一下:在沒有營收成長的情況下,我們實現了利潤率的提升和利潤貢獻。想想我們能做什麼,不只是想想,我們的計畫是推動公司發展。

  • You're going to see -- we did not have top line growth. We were flat this year. A lot of reasons, but it doesn't matter. We were flat. We are obviously showing we're going to have top line growth in terms of sales, and with that, that profit flow-through will be visible.

    你會發現-我們的營收並沒有成長。我們今年的業績平平。原因有很多,但這都不重要。我們當時很沮喪。很明顯,我們的銷售額將會成長,隨之而來的是利潤的提升。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • Thank you. I really appreciate that. If I could maybe follow up on the conversion of Modernization orders. So Mod revenue has obviously been very good, but orders and backlog have been even better for a while now. So I guess my question is, can you just maybe talk about that Mod conversion cycle? I would imagine it's faster than the New Equipment market? But any color there because it does feel like backlog and orders have been running ahead of revenue for some time now.

    謝謝。我非常感謝。如果我能跟進一下現代化訂單的轉換情況就好了。所以,Mod收入顯然非常好,但訂單和積壓訂單的情況在一段時間內甚至更好。所以我想問的是,您能談談Mod的轉換週期嗎?我想它應該比新設備市場更快吧?但這裡沒有任何色彩,因為感覺積壓訂單已經持續一段時間超過了收入。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • You're accurate, Chris. And we're just -- we continue to build up that backlog. In our guide this year, the Mod revenue will be in the teens, certainly, 10%-plus as the volumes accelerate. That works really -- what your assessment on, you think it's quicker than New Equipment. It is when we're doing a volume Mod a small Mod, certainly a partial Mod, but even a volume full Mod, we can do that relatively quickly.

    你說得對,克里斯。我們只是──我們繼續累積積壓的工作。根據我們今年的預測,Mod 的營收肯定會達到 10% 以上,隨著銷售量的加速成長,這一數字肯定會超過 10%。這確實有效——根據你的評估,你認為它比新設備更快。當我們進行音量調製時,無論是小幅度的調製,還是部分調製,甚至是完整的音量調製,我們都可以相對快速地完成。

  • But I would tell you that when we go to, not just major projects but even office buildings, commercial locations, hotels where there's a bank of elevators or multiple elevators or infrastructure where there's multiple, we only can really take one or two out of Service at a time. So even though we were not held up by a construction cycle or a general contract because we're the general contractor, it's about interruption in the building.

    但我可以告訴你,當我們去到不僅是大型項目,甚至是辦公大樓、商業場所、酒店等有成排電梯或多部電梯的基礎設施時,我們一次也只能讓一兩部電梯停止運作。所以,儘管我們沒有受到施工週期或總合約的阻礙(因為我們是總承包商),但這與建築施工中斷有關。

  • So some of these major projects actually take longer than a New Equipment job as do some of the ones where we have a common bank if you're in a hotel, you're only going to modernize one at a time so that you don't disrupt traffic flow or have a lot of general work going on. So it's a little different mix than New Equipment.

    所以,有些大型專案實際上比新設備專案耗時更長,有些專案也是如此。例如,如果你在飯店,我們有一個公共銀行,你一次只會對一個銀行進行現代化改造,這樣就不會擾亂交通流量或造成大量一般性工作。所以它和新設備的組合略有不同。

  • On the cash side, it looks good because it's -- we get the advanced payments, and we bill as we go. On the revenue side, it's -- we'll do POC accounting in terms of how we do the sales. But there is this blend. And in the -- we are pushing hard, all of our regional leaders know, all of our field leaders know, we're pushing hard to convert the volume as quick as possible so that we can get ready for more. And it should be in the teens in terms of '26 and beyond.

    從現金方面來看,情況不錯,因為我們是先收到預付款,然後根據實際情況開立帳單。在收入方面,我們將根據銷售情況進行概念驗證會計。但也有這種混合體。而且——我們正在全力以赴,我們所有的區域領導都知道,我們所有的現場領導都知道,我們正在全力以赴盡快提高銷量,以便我們能夠為更多訂單做好準備。而到 2026 年及以後,這個數字應該會在十幾位數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

    Jeff Sprague,Vertical Research Partners。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Judy, I was wondering if you could just dial us in a little bit more precisely on China just to level set the base and what is the actual expectation for 2026. You just spoke to it directionally, but maybe just how the market ended in units? What you're actually expecting for the 2026 decline? And is it a decline in the first half and then a stabilization in the back? Any color there would be helpful.

    朱迪,我想請你更精確地談談中國的情況,以便確定一個基準,並分析一下 2026 年的實際預期。你剛才只是大致談到了市場走向,但或許可以具體說說市場最終的成交量是多少?你對2026年的下滑預期是什麼?上半場是下滑,下半場是穩定嗎?任何顏色都會有所幫助。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, happy to, Jeff. So it's interesting. This time last year, we sat here and we said, and I said that the market would start its stabilization as we got to the second half, and that is indeed what we saw. The market in '25 was down 15% for the first half, 10% for the second half. We believe the market ended at about 370,000, if I round up just a little units for 2025.

    是的,我很樂意,傑夫。所以這很有意思。去年這個時候,我們坐在這裡說,我也說過,市場會在下半年開始穩定,而我們也確實看到了這一點。2025年上半年市場下跌15%,下半年下跌10%。我們認為,如果我稍微向上取整一下,2025 年的市場規模將達到 37 萬左右。

  • You know we've changed our strategy there, but let me finish on where we see the market this year. Our view is that as opposed to if you take between the 15% and 10%, let's say, 2025 was 13% down, we think this year will be about 8% down.

    你知道我們已經改變了那裡的策略,但最後我想談談我們對今年市場的看法。我們的觀點是,如果取 15% 到 10% 之間的數值,比方說,2025 年下降了 13%,我們認為今年將下降約 8%。

  • We think in the first quarter, maybe second quarter, we'll see that similar minus 10%, and we think we'll end the year closer in the market being down to minus 5%. So you can do the math in terms of it being down about 8% in terms of the segment.

    我們認為第一季度,或許第二季度,將會出現類似的-10%的跌幅,我們認為年底市場跌幅將接近-5%。所以你可以算出來,就該細分市場而言,它下降了大約 8%。

  • In terms of our strategy and what we've done, listen, I think the team has done a phenomenal job in the fourth straight year of decline. Our Service in the fourth quarter, we continue to grow our Service business, both Maintenance, Repair. You heard me talk about Mod earlier.

    就我們的策略和我們所做的事情而言,我認為團隊在連續第四年下滑的情況下做得非常出色。在第四季度,我們的服務業務持續成長,包括維護和維修。你之前聽我說過Mod。

  • Service now, as we exited in the fourth quarter, was 47% of our China sales, which was 42% in the third quarter. And you'll recall it's spin; it was in the mid-teens. So we have been going through this transformation of our China business to not be as dependent on China.

    截至第四季末,Service Now 業務占我們中國銷售額的 47%,而第三季這一比例為 42%。你還記得那次旋轉嗎?當時是十幾歲。因此,我們一直在對我們在中國的業務進行轉型,以減少對中國的依賴。

  • In terms of global revenue, China represents 11% for the year of our total Otis revenue. It was at 12% in the fourth quarter, and it's now 19% of our New Equipment revenue in the fourth quarter versus 21% in the third quarter. So the rest of the business is growing healthy.

    就全球收入而言,中國占我們奧的斯年度總收入的 11%。第四季佔新設備收入的 12%,而第四季佔 19%,第三季為 21%。所以,公司其他業務也發展良好。

  • Our China team has done an amazing job at being able to stabilize our business, and they've added connected units. They've continued on productivity. And we're really interested in hearing what's going to happen in the March meetings that are happening after the 15th five-year plan was announced at the fall Plenum.

    我們的中國團隊在穩定業務方面做得非常出色,他們也增加了連網單元。他們的生產力持續保持成長。我們非常想知道在秋季全體會議上宣布第 15 個五年計劃之後,3 月的會議將會發生什麼。

  • We believe that involution focus will help with competitive pricing, hopefully starting to stabilize that. The Mod bond will help us, and we believe there will be a continued focus on how do you get consumption started in the property markets. But that's the China picture for you, Jeff.

    我們相信,專注於內捲化將有助於提高價格競爭力,並有望開始穩定價格。貨幣債券將對我們有所幫助,我們相信,如何刺激房地產市場消費仍將是關注的焦點。但這就是中國的真實面貌,傑夫。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Yeah. No, that's great color. And then could you also just address where OE versus Service margins are way back when, right, we used to think of New Equipment margins actually higher than Service? I think there's some debate on whether or not that was actually the case.

    是的。不,這顏色真好看。那麼,您能否也談談過去 OE 與服務利潤率之間的關係呢?那時候,我們通常認為新設備的利潤率實際上高於服務利潤率。我認為對於事實是否如此仍存在一些爭議。

  • But you did note that China is still your highest margin region overall. So I just wonder if you could give us a little more perspective on that also?

    但您也提到,中國仍是您整體利潤率最高的地區。所以我想知道您是否也能就此給我們一些更詳細的見解?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Jeff, they've remained the highest margin -- the highest region in margin because we have restructured the organization to adapt the cost to the new volume environment. On the other side, Service margins are expanding over time because I think that they are growing very strongly in Modernization.

    是的,傑夫,他們的利潤率一直最高——是利潤率最高的地區,因為我們已經重組了組織結構,使成本適應了新的銷售環境。另一方面,服務利潤率隨著時間的推移而擴大,因為我認為它們在現代化進程中成長非常強勁。

  • Our Modernization margins are at the same level as New Equipment. So as Modernization goes up, in the case of China, that is going to be a tailwind in the margin rate. So -- but yeah, directionally in line with what we have said before, New Equipment, high; Service, lower but getting better.

    我們的現代化改造利潤率與新設備改造利潤率處於同一水平。因此,隨著現代化進程的推進,以中國為例,這將對利潤率起到推動作用。所以——但整體方向與我們之前所說的一致,新設備價格高;服務價格低但正在改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    Nigel Coe,Wolfe Research。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Cristina, maybe I can clarify with you. The 1Q guidance, is that flat with 1Q last year? Or is that 4Q?

    克里斯蒂娜,或許我可以跟你解釋一下。第一季業績指引是否與去年第一季持平?還是那是第四季?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • It's flat versus Q1 last year. And Nigel, let me give you some color about the different segments. So on the one side, sales is going to continue accelerating all the year along starting in Q1. We are expecting in Service 6% sales.

    與去年第一季相比持平。奈傑爾,讓我來幫你介紹各個不同的部分。一方面,從第一季開始,銷售額將全年持續加速成長。我們預計服務業銷售額將成長 6%。

  • You may remember that last year, we had a weaker Service top line growth, particularly in Repair. It was 1% in Q1 last year. It's expected to be around 10%. We also have an easier compare, but we continue accelerating, while Modernization will be in a steady growth on the back of the 30% backlog.

    您可能還記得,去年我們的服務收入成長較為疲軟,尤其是維修業務。去年第一季是1%。預計約10%。我們還有一個更容易比較的比較對象,但我們仍在加速發展,而現代化業務將在 30% 的積壓訂單的支撐下穩步成長。

  • From a profit standpoint, we expect profit at actual FX to be around flat with $20 million FX tailwinds. The reason for that is on the New Equipment side, we didn't have tariffs last year in Q1. They came into place into Q2. You have also seen weaker execution in US New Equipment in Q4. This has been delayed to Q1. So we have a compound effect of the compare plus tariffs moving into Q1.

    從獲利角度來看,我們預計以實際匯率計算的利潤將基本持平,並受益於 2000 萬美元的外匯利好。原因在於,就新設備而言,去年第一季我們沒有徵收關稅。它們在第二季到位。第四季美國新設備市場的表現也較為疲軟。這項計劃已推遲到第一季。因此,比較加價措施在第一季會產生複合效應。

  • On the Service side, although we continue growing the top line, and the acceleration of Repair is a tailwind in margin, we also have a tougher compare contribution because of investments. You may recall that last year, we started a Service excellence investment in Q2. So when you compare to Q1, we don't have that in the baseline. But overall, margin is going to be around 16% in Q1.

    在服務方面,雖然我們的營收持續成長,維修業務的加速發展也對利潤率起到了推動作用,但由於投資,我們的業績貢獻也面臨更大的挑戰。您可能還記得,去年第二季我們啟動了服務卓越投資項目。所以與第一季相比,我們在基準線中沒有這個數據。但總體而言,第一季的利潤率將在 16% 左右。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. That's what I was going to clarify that with you there.

    好的。那很有幫助。我正想跟你澄清這一點。

  • And then for the full year, you're indicating New Equipment margins down probably 100 basis points or so for the full year. I think your plan is pretty flat margins overall. So should we think about it as a better relation on corporate, Service margins up 20 basis points? Is that how you think about it?

    然後,就全年而言,您表示新設備利潤率可能會下降 100 個基點左右。我認為你的方案整體利潤率比較平穩。所以我們應該把它看成是企業關係改善、服務利潤率提高 20 個基點嗎?你是這樣想的嗎?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, you got it right in the sense that margins are going to be around flat. But looking into the segments, as I said before, Service is going to expand margins very strongly again in 2026. Total operating profit growth for Service is going to be $200 million.

    從某種意義上說,你的判斷是對的,利潤率基本上將保持不變。但從各個細分市場來看,正如我之前所說,服務業的利潤率將在 2026 年再次大幅成長。服務業務的總營業利潤成長將達到 2 億美元。

  • On the New Equipment side, this is indeed a headwind for us. And the reason for that is that the China transformation benefits were mainly captured in 2025. So the run rate is $40 million in total, only $10 million incremental run rate in 2026. At the same time, we continue executing the backlog with a more competitive price and volumes are regularly stabilizing, but they are planned to be revenue in New Equipment, low single-digit down to flat.

    在新設備方面,這確實對我們來說是一個不利因素。原因在於,中國轉型帶來的效益主要在 2025 年才能體現出來。因此,總運行率為 4000 萬美元,而 2026 年的增量運行率僅為 1000 萬美元。同時,我們繼續以更具競爭力的價格執行積壓訂單,銷量也逐漸趨於穩定,但預計新設備的收入將出現個位數低幅甚至持平。

  • From a corporate standpoint, we expect to be at the same level as Q4. So Q4 is a good run rate for you to take. And you need to consider the impact of inflation, and we have some small impact of transactional FX that is related to the hedging of our intercompany activity. It's a technical thing we can cover offline, but it's essentially leaving the run rate at Q4.

    從公司角度來看,我們預計與第四季持平。所以第四季是一個適合你的收益率。你還需要考慮通貨膨脹的影響,而且我們還有一些與公司間活動對沖相關的交易外匯影響較小。這是一個技術性問題,我們可以私下討論,但本質上來說,就是運行率保持在第四季度。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Okay. So just to clarify, Cristina, it sounds like New Equipment margins close to 3% for the full year?

    好的。所以,克里斯蒂娜,我再確認一下,聽起來全年新設備利潤率接近3%?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I would say slightly below 4%.

    是的。我認為略低於 4%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    朱利安米切爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • I just wanted to circle back to the Service business for a second there. And just trying to understand if we take the total company in Service, I think you had 92% retention end of 2024, where is that ending 2025?

    我剛才想再簡單談談服務業。我只是想了解一下,如果我們以整個公司在服務方面的情況來看,我認為你們在 2024 年底的客戶留存率為 92%,那麼到 2025 年底這個數字是多少呢?

  • And I think, Judy, you mentioned the 4% portfolio unit growth may be tough to sustain. I just wanted to understand why that's the case as you are investing a lot more in Service head count and so forth?

    朱迪,我認為你剛才提到過,4%的投資組合單位成長率可能難以維持。我只是想了解為什麼會出現這種情況,因為你們在服務人員等方面投入了更多資金?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Julian, the 4% is not tough to sustain if we choose to sustain it with more emerging markets and lower contributing units. What we're trying to do is focus on growth and growth in value as well. So the retention rate actually ex China, which we didn't share last year. But actually, is -- we say stable, I would say.

    是的,朱利安,如果我們選擇透過增加新興市場和降低貢獻單位的數量來維持4%的成長,那麼維持這個成長率並不難。我們正在努力實現的是既關注成長,也關注價值成長。所以,實際的客戶留存率不包括中國,這是我們去年沒有公佈的數據。但實際上,我認為它是穩定的。

  • I was pleased with what we were able to do through the year. We stopped it from eroding when you think about the Americas, Asia Pacific, and EMEA, and now we're at the point with these investments and with our customer focus where we think that will now actually become stronger. But not by 1 point in '26, but it should pick up a little bit. Obviously, China is a little different structural.

    我對我們一年來所取得的成就感到滿意。我們已經阻止了美洲、亞太和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的市場萎縮,現在,透過這些投資和以客戶為中心的策略,我們認為市場將會變得更加強大。但2026年不會只贏1分,不過應該會稍微好轉一些。顯然,中國的結構略有不同。

  • But please understand, I mean, we could continue to add units to the portfolio. This is a conscious decision we're making and it's not that 4% is going back to the 1% we had perennially, but it might be -- it might start with a 3%, but it's going to be a 3%-plus, but it's going to be units that actually drive more top line in terms of maintenance value, in terms of the Repair we'll get from it, and the eventual Mod.

    但請理解,我的意思是,我們可以繼續在投資組合中增加單元。這是我們經過深思熟慮後做出的決定,並不是說 4% 會回到我們一直以來的 1%,但也許會——也許會從 3% 開始,但最終會超過 3%,而且這些設備實際上會在維護價值、維修收益以及最終的改裝方面帶來更多收入。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thank you. And then I just wanted to put a finer point on the how we should think about the EPS phasing for the year. So I think it's up $0.23 for the year as a whole. That's all coming between the second and fourth quarters because Q1 is flat EPS year-on-year. Any help you could give us how to think about the phasing of that $0.23 increase in the remaining nine months, please?

    那很有幫助。謝謝。然後,我只想更詳細地說明我們應該如何考慮今年的 EPS 分期付款計劃。所以我認為它今年整體上漲了0.23美元。所有這些都將在第二季和第四季之間發生,因為第一季每股收益與去年同期持平。請問您能否幫助我們考慮如何在剩餘的九個月內分階段實施這0.23美元的成長?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And I'll just remind you, this year, it was $0.03 for the first half and then $0.09 for Q3 and $0.10 for Q4. So our intent is not to have to depend on the full second half again. there will be an increase regardless of the compares, but you should start seeing it much more in the second quarter than you did last year.

    是的。我再提醒一下,今年上半年是 0.03 美元,第三季是 0.09 美元,第四季是 0.10 美元。因此,我們的目標是不再完全依賴下半年的業績。無論同比數據如何,業績都會有所增長,但您應該會在第二季度看到比去年同期更顯著的增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

    Rob Wertheimer,Melius Research。

  • Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

    Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

  • Judy, you've touched on Service and Service excellence investments a couple of times. I wonder if you could, just in a general sense, talk about where you feel you are now versus where you want to be? Have you gotten there and you're starting to see results Is there more investment to come? And maybe there's a margin kind of a theme attached to that question.

    朱迪,你已經多次提到服務和卓越服務投資。我想請您大致談談您目前所處的位置與您想要達到的位置之間的差異?你已經達到目標並開始看到成效了嗎?未來還會有更多投資嗎?或許這個問題還蘊含著某種邊緣性的主題。

  • And then I wonder if there's any new technology or new tools they're developing throughout the year that might add to your ability to lead that segment?

    那麼我想知道,他們今年是否正在開發任何新技術或新工具,這些技術或工具可能會增強您領導該領域的能力?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. No, Rob, we anticipate continued productivity from our incredible down 45,000 field professionals. They represent us every day in front of customers, and they are, as I always say, the heart and soul of our company.

    是的。不,羅布,我們預計我們那 45,000 名出色的現場專業人員將繼續保持生產力。他們每天代表我們與客戶打交道,正如我常說的,他們是我們公司的心臟和靈魂。

  • We will be continuing to provide more tools and technology for them because the answer for us to continue growing, we cannot just instantly create new mechanics. They go through an apprenticeship. These are professionals. This is what they commit to.

    我們將繼續為他們提供更多工具和技術,因為要繼續發展,我們不能只依靠一夜之間創造新的機制。他們需要經過學徒期。他們都是專業人士。這是他們所承諾的。

  • So whether it's our robot that's doing inspections that we showed in China, other AI tools that let us handle parts identification more efficiently, even our -- obviously, the application of Otis ONE, I am so excited about where that's going in '26 to give us better predictive maintenance and to make our mechanics first-time fix rate even more efficient. So all of that should help us in terms of how we go about the year.

    所以,無論是我們在中國展示的用於進行檢查的機器人,還是其他能夠讓我們更有效率地處理零件識別的人工智慧工具,甚至是我們的——顯然,Otis ONE 的應用,我都非常興奮地看到它在 2026 年的發展方向,它將為我們提供更好的預測性維護,並使我們機械師的首次修復率更加高效。所以,所有這些都應該對我們今年的工作安排有所幫助。

  • The first part of your question, I'm sorry -- I answered --

    很抱歉,關於您問題的第一部分——我已經回答過了。--

  • Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

    Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

  • That was largely it. But have you reached max investment and now over the next two or three years, you start to lever it? Or how do you think about that?

    基本上就是這樣。但是,您是否已經達到最大投資金額,並計劃在接下來的兩三年內開始利用槓桿進行投資?你對此有何看法?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I think -- well, I can tell you the investment is still underway especially -- and it's planned for '26, which is a little bit part of the EPS bridge that Cristina took you through because having been in this business for 172 years, we understand the value of long-term customers, and we knew we needed to improve our Service delivery. So that investment is still underway.

    是的,我想——嗯,我可以告訴你,這項投資仍在進行中,特別是——計劃在 2026 年完成,這有點像 Cristina 帶你了解的 EPS 橋樑的一部分,因為我們從事這項業務已有 172 年,我們了解長期客戶的價值,我們也知道我們需要改進我們的服務交付。所以這項投資仍在進行中。

  • It's happening at -- and basically, what we're doing is we're applying more mechanics and more field professionals in locations where the performance has not been satisfactory even though we may not be billing them. But we're trying to improve that Service, retain that customer. It's an investment we think is extremely worthwhile and it's going to continue to play out this year, and we believe the returns will be seen for many years to come.

    這種情況正在發生——基本上,我們正​​在做的就是,即使我們可能沒有向表現不佳的地方收費,也要在這些地方投入更多的機械師和現場專業人員。但我們正在努力改善服務,留住客戶。我們認為這是一項非常值得的投資,而且這項投資的回報將在今年繼續顯現,我們相信未來很多年都會看到回報。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kyle Summers, Rothschild & Co.

    Kyle Summers,羅斯柴爾德公司

  • Kyle Summers - Analyst

    Kyle Summers - Analyst

  • I just want to start on the Repair side. Could you just go into a bit more detail as to how the investment into Service excellence led to the lower-than-expected Repairs? And then why shouldn't we see this reoccur in 2026?

    我只想先從維修方面著手。您能否詳細說明一下,為什麼卓越服務的投資反而導致了維修率低於預期?那麼,為什麼我們不應該在 2026 年再次看到這種情況發生呢?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Well, all I can tell you is the Repair backlog is growing, which, from a financial perspective and how you look at it, you look at it positive from a customer service perspective, you don't want to wait too long for repair.

    是的。我只能告訴你,維修積壓的情況正在增加,從財務角度來看,這是件好事;而從客戶服務角度來看,你肯定不希望維修等待時間過長。

  • So we need to increase the conversion rates on our Repair and you're going to see us be more proactive Repair in terms of sending out solutions for our customers before they ever experience the problem. But I'll let Cristina talk to the rates.

    因此,我們需要提高維修服務的轉換率,您會看到我們在維修方面更加積極主動,在客戶遇到問題之前就為他們提供解決方案。但我會讓克里斯蒂娜去談價格。

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Kyle. And I will add that, as Judy said, the Repair backlog is growing and the demand is there. It's a matter of how we distribute our field colleagues in order to execute all the activities in the quarter that are in the case of Service, Maintenance, Repair and Modernization.

    是的,凱爾。我還要補充一點,正如朱迪所說,維修積壓越來越多,而且需求也很大。這取決於我們如何分配現場同事,以便在服務、維護、維修和現代化等季度活動中執行所有工作。

  • So as we enter the quarter, we knew how many field colleagues we had because the onboarding process is longer than three months. But we also monitor regularly the quality indicators. And as we see the need to put more field colleagues on maintenance in order to better support customer and satisfaction, we calibrate during the quarter resources from the different activities.

    因此,進入本季時,我們知道我們有多少現場同事,因為入職流程超過三個月。但我們也會定期監測品質指標。隨著我們發現需要安排更多現場同事進行維護,以便更好地支援客戶並提高客戶滿意度,我們會在季度內調整不同活動的資源。

  • So it's not a backlog or demand issue. It's a matter of calibrated resources according to the best use of them.

    所以這不是積壓訂單或需求問題。這是根據資源的最佳用途進行合理分配的問題。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And I think we are getting better at that every day and every week at all of our operating territories.

    我認為,在我們所有的營運區域,我們每天、每週都在不斷進步。

  • Kyle Summers - Analyst

    Kyle Summers - Analyst

  • And then just on the retention rate. So obviously, good to see it stabilizing outside of China, but obviously, the total rate has still declined. Can you just provide a bit more color as to what exactly is going on in China and how you aim to stabilize the decline there?

    然後就看客戶留存率了。所以很顯然,很高興看到中國以外的地區疫情趨於穩定,但很顯然,整體感染率仍然下降了。您能否詳細說明中國目前的具體情況,以及您打算如何穩定那裡的經濟下滑趨勢?

  • And then just adding on to that, you mentioned slight improvement into 2026. Is that for the total group? Or is that still ex China?

    而且,您也提到到 2026 年情況會略有改善。這是針對整個團隊的嗎?還是那仍然屬於前中國?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So listen, we expect everyone to participate in continuous improvement in everything we do. So I wouldn't just call out ex group for improvement. There's room for everyone to improve.

    所以,聽著,我們希望每個人都能參與我們所做的每一件事的持續改進。所以我不會只是指出前團隊需要改進的地方。每個人都有進步的空間。

  • China is pretty simple. Every year, every contract is up for renewal, and there's no ability to have any auto renewal in the structure of how China does business for everyone, not unique to Otis. So it is every year continuous; you have to prove yourself. You get repriced. It's just it's a very different structural system.

    中國其實很簡單。每年,所有合約都需要續簽,而中國的商業運作模式決定了所有企業(包括奧的斯)都無法實現自動續約。所以每年都是如此;你必須證明自己。價格會重新調整。只是它的結構體系截然不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

    史蒂夫圖薩,摩根大通。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • I'm not sure if we have the numbers right on the conversion rate in China. It seemed like it was substantially lower than what you guys have been reporting in the past, just a math on that, if you could confirm that?

    我不確定我們掌握的中國匯率數據是否正確。看起來比你們之前報道的要低得多,請幫忙計算一下,能否確認一下?

  • And then I guess, just combining that with the attrition and delving a little bit deeper into Jeff's line of questioning, is there just something now, like structurally different with this China aftermarket that the price pressure is intensified from the OE into the Services now? And so that's just something you're -- like you said, you're walking from a value perspective? Is that just higher level, like is that the mosaic there?

    然後我想,結合損耗情況,再深入探討一下傑夫提出的問題,現在中國售後市場的結構是否有所不同,導致價格壓力從原廠設備轉移到了售後服務領域?所以,就像你說的,你是從價值觀的角度出發的嗎?那隻是更高層次的東西嗎?例如,那裡的馬賽克圖案是那樣的嗎?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me answer both. So the China, there's two things going on here, Steve. One is we are -- and we're in flight. So we've got orders in the backlog that we won competitively, that we won through our agents and distributors. And some of these are not in the Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities where we choose to focus because of the contribution.

    是的。讓我來回答這兩個問題。所以,關於中國,這裡有兩件事正在發生,史蒂夫。一是我們正在飛行。所以,我們積壓了一些訂單,這些訂單是我們透過競賽贏得的,也是我們透過代理商和經銷商贏得的。其中一些並不在我們因貢獻而選擇重點關注的一線和二線城市。

  • We get better density there. The contribution makes sense. So we've obviously delivered them. New Equipment margins are good. But we understand if that customer chooses to go with another service provider, and we allow that to happen.

    那裡的密度更高。這項貢獻是合理的。所以很明顯,我們已經交付了。新設備利潤率不錯。但我們理解如果客戶選擇其他服務提供者,我們也允許這種情況發生。

  • Separately on recaptures, we use that same filter. So it's not -- we don't want to recapture everything across the whole country. We want to recapture the units. So New Equipment, we want the units that will give us the lifetime service or certainly a better service stickiness. In Service recaptures, we're very targeted now. So I think you're seeing not structural but strategic Otis decisions that will -- it might impact the rate, but it will give us a healthier portfolio on China.

    對於重新捕獲的數據,我們使用相同的過濾器。所以並不是——我們不想在全國範圍內重新奪回所有東西。我們想重新奪回這些單位。所以,對於新設備,我們想要的是能夠提供終身服務或至少具有更好服務黏性的設備。在重新奪回服務方面,我們現在採取了非常有針對性的策略。所以我認為你看到的不是結構性的,而是奧的斯集團的策略性決策,這些決策可能會影響利率,但會讓我們在中國的投資組合更健康。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • Okay. And are we right about the conversion rate being like --?

    好的。我們關於轉換率的判斷是否正確?——?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • It is lower.

    更低。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • Okay. And that should remain in that level going forward?

    好的。那麼,這個水平未來應該保持不變嗎?

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I would expect a little improvement, but it will remain lower. Yeah.

    是的,我預計會略有改善,但仍然會偏低。是的。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • Okay. And then sorry, one last one, just on price cost. What is the thought on that this year? I know steel obviously has been a bit volatile. What are you guys looking for on a spread basis this year?

    好的。最後,抱歉,還有最後一個問題,只是關於價格成本。今年對此有何看法?我知道鋼鐵價格顯然有些波動。今年你們在價差方面有什麼目標?

  • Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Cristina Mendez - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • We would expect the same trend as we have seen in 2025, Steve. So rest of the world, excluding China, will have positive low single-digit price. China will remain challenged around 1, 2 points down sequentially quarter-over-quarter.

    史蒂夫,我們預計 2025 年的趨勢將與現在相同。因此,除中國以外的世界其他地區,物價將保持在較低的個位數水準。中國經濟仍將面臨挑戰,預計季將下降1到2個百分點。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I'm not as worried about commodities, Steve, with how we manage it locally and then how we lock it in. Obviously, we're watching steel, copper, but it's not a significant number for us in terms of a headwind this year.

    是的。史蒂夫,我並不太擔心大宗商品,只要我們在本地進行管理並鎖定價格就行了。顯然,我們正在關注鋼鐵和銅的價格,但就今年的不利因素而言,它們對我們來說並不構成重大影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn it back over to Judy for closing comments.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言權交還給朱迪,請她做總結陳詞。

  • Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Judith Marks - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Krista. 2025 marked another year demonstrating the strength and resiliency of our Service-driven strategy. This foundation in Service, together with a robust backlog for Modernization and New Equipment, gives us confidence in driving meaningful growth in 2026 and beyond. Thank you again for joining us today. Please stay safe and well.

    謝謝你,克麗斯塔。 2025年標誌著我們以服務為導向的策略又一次展現了其實力和韌性。憑藉在服務方面的基礎,以及現代化改造和新設備方面強大的積壓訂單,我們有信心在 2026 年及以後實現有意義的成長。再次感謝您今天蒞臨。請注意安全,保重身體。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接了。