奧的斯電梯 (OTIS) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Otis' third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being carried live on the Internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis' website at www.otis.com. I'll now turn it over to Rob Quartaro, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加奧的斯2025年第三季財報電話會議。本次通話正在線上直播，並錄音以供回放。示範資料可從奧的斯公司網站www.otis.com下載。現在我將把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁羅伯·誇塔羅。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Welcome to Otis' third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President; and Cristina Mendez, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring and significant nonrecurring items.

謝謝你，莎拉。歡迎參加奧的斯2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天和我一起通話的是董事長、執行長兼總裁朱迪·馬克斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜·門德斯。請注意，除非另有說明，公司將討論持續經營的業績，不包括重組和重大非經常性項目。

A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis' SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

這些措施的協調情況可在網路直播的附錄中找到。我們也提醒聽眾，本次演講包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述有風險和不確定性。奧的斯向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格季度報告，提供了可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

Now I'll turn it over to Judy.

現在我把麥克風交給茱蒂。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We hope that everyone listening is safe and well. Starting with Q3 highlights on slide 3. Otis delivered strong third quarter results and returned to growth as we executed well on our service-driven business model. Organic sales in the quarter were up 2%, driven by service, which grew 6%.

謝謝你，羅布。各位早安、下午好、晚上好。感謝您的參與。我們希望所有收聽節目的人都平安健康。從投影片 3 開始，重點介紹第三季的情況。奧的斯第三季業績強勁，恢復成長，這得益於我們成功執行了以服務為導向的商業模式。本季有機銷售額成長 2%，其中服務業成長 6%。

Notably, modernization organic sales grew 14%. Adjusted operating profit margin expanded by 20 basis points overall, driven by service margin expansion of 70 basis points. This strong performance, together with a lower share count, drove a 9% increase in adjusted earnings per share in the quarter.

值得注意的是，現代化有機銷售額成長了 14%。調整後的營業利潤率整體成長了 20 個基點，其中服務利潤率成長了 70 個基點。這一強勁的業績表現，加上流通股數量的減少，推動本季調整後每股收益成長了 9%。

Our maintenance portfolio continued to grow 4%, and we are on track to approach 2.5 million units in our service portfolio by year-end. Modernization order growth accelerated to 27% and backlog increased 22%. New equipment orders grew 4%, returning to growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2023, supported by moderating declines in China and good momentum across the other regions.

我們的維護業務組合持續成長 4%，我們預計在年底前將服務組合規模擴大到 250 萬台。現代化改造訂單增速加快至 27%，積壓訂單增加 22%。新設備訂單成長 4%，自 2023 年第四季以來首次恢復成長，這得益於中國市場下滑幅度收窄以及其他地區良好的成長動能。

Adjusted free cash flow increased sequentially as anticipated to $337 million, giving us good line of sight to deliver our adjusted free cash flow outlook of approximately $1.45 billion for the full year. We opportunistically completed approximately $250 million in share repurchases during the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to approximately $800 million, fulfilling our full year outlook.

經過調整後的自由現金流如預期般環比增長至 3.37 億美元，這讓我們有理由相信能夠實現全年經調整後的自由現金流預期，約為 14.5 億美元。我們在第三季抓住機會完成了約 2.5 億美元的股票回購，使今年迄今的回購總額達到約 8 億美元，實現了我們全年的預期目標。

We continue to innovate both in our product and go-to-market approaches. For example, we recently launched Otis [Arise] MOD packages in our EMEA region, which represents our largest modernization opportunity currently. Otis Arise MOD is a new suite of flexible phased modernization packages designed to help building owners upgrade their elevators in a way that creates less disruption for passengers, and provides customers with options for a phased project and predictable budget.

我們在產品和市場推廣方式上不斷創新。例如，我們最近在歐洲、中東和非洲地區推出了 Otis [Arise] MOD 軟體包，這是我們目前最大的現代化機會。奧的斯 Arise MOD 是一套全新的靈活分階段現代化改造方案，旨在幫助樓宇業主以對乘客造成最小幹擾的方式升級電梯，並為客戶提供分階段項目和可預測預算的選擇。

Otis Arise MOD reflects our commitment to customer-centric innovation and positions us to capture long-term modernization demand across the region. Also during the quarter, Otis was named a TIME magazine's list of the world's best companies for 2025, and again recognized by Forbes as one of the world's best employers. These recognitions reflect our commitment to our absolutes, our strong culture, global impact and commitment to excellence.

Otis Arise MOD 體現了我們對以客戶為中心的創新的承諾，並使我們能夠滿足整個地區的長期現代化需求。此外，在本季度，奧的斯也被《時代》雜誌評為 2025 年全球最佳公司之一，並再次被《富比士》評為全球最佳雇主之一。這些榮譽體現了我們對原則的承諾、我們強大的企業文化、全球影響力和對卓越的追求。

Turning to our orders performance on slide 4. Combined new equipment and modernization orders grew 9% in the quarter, with notable strength in Americas, EMEA and China. Our combined backlog increased 3% and excluding China, increased 11%. Our total backlog, including maintenance and repair, remains near historically high levels, which should support growth in the coming quarters.

接下來請看第 4 頁的訂單表現。本季新設備和現代化改造訂單合計成長 9%，其中美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲以及中國市場表現尤為強勁。我們的合併積壓訂單增加了 3%，如果排除中國，則增加了 11%。我們的總積壓訂單（包括維護和維修）仍接近歷史高位，這將支持未來幾季的成長。

New equipment orders increased 4% in the quarter. And excluding China, we saw a robust 7% growth, with EMEA up high teens, driven by Southern Europe and the Middle East, while Americas grew mid-single digits. The strength was partially offset by a low single-digit decline in Asia.

本季新設備訂單成長了4%。除中國外，我們看到強勁的 7% 成長，其中歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長接近 10%，主要得益於南歐和中東的成長，而美洲地區的成長為個位數中段。亞洲市場的個位數低幅部分抵消了整體的強勁勢頭。

We have seen improvement in China year-over-year comparisons and we expect China new equipment orders to be down mid-single digits for the second half of the year. At constant currency, our new equipment backlog declined 1% year-over-year, but excluding China, it grew 8%.

我們看到中國年比數據有所改善，預計今年下半年中國新設備訂單將出現個位數中段的下降。以固定匯率計算，我們的新設備積壓訂單年減 1%，但若不計中國市場，則成長了 8%。

We had our highest modernization order since [spin], up 27%, driven by strong 20%-plus orders growth in Americas and China, and high teens growth in EMEA. Our quarter end backlog grew 22%, positioning us well for the coming quarters.

自[分拆]以來，我們的現代化訂單數量達到了最高水平，增長了 27%，這主要得益於美洲和中國超過 20% 的強勁訂單增長，以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區兩位數以上的增長。本季末積壓訂單成長了 22%，為接下來的幾季奠定了良好的基礎。

We continue to believe we're in the early innings of a multiyear growth cycle in modernization driven by the aging of the 22 million unit installed base. All regions contributed to our service portfolio growth of 4% in the quarter. We saw low teens growth in China, mid-single-digit growth in Asia Pacific, and low single-digit growth in Americas and EMEA.

我們仍然認為，我們正處於一個多年現代化成長週期的初期，而這個成長週期是由2,200萬台已安裝設備的老舊所驅動的。本季度所有地區都為我們的服務組合成長 4% 做出了貢獻。我們看到中國實現了兩位數左右的成長，亞太地區實現了個位數中段的成長，美洲和歐洲、中東及非洲地區實現了個位數低段的成長。

Our global teams continue to execute well. And this quarter, we secured a number of strategic customer wins that underscore our ability to deliver differentiated solutions, deepen relationships and expand our footprint across key markets.

我們的全球團隊持續保持良好的執行力。本季度，我們成功贏得了一系列策略客戶，這凸顯了我們有能力提供差異化解決方案，深化客戶關係，並擴大我們在關鍵市場的影響力。

In the Americas, we secured a project at 100 McAllister in San Francisco, a landmark 1930 Gothic revival in our [deco] building that serves the University of California law school. Otis will install five Gen 3 elevators with Compass destination dispatching, delivering advanced vertical transportation while preserving the building's historic character. The project is being managed by Plant Construction, a long-standing Otis partner, and highlights our commitment to quality, innovation and heritage preservation.

在美洲，我們獲得了位於舊金山麥卡利斯特街 100 號的項目，這是一座 1930 年的標誌性哥德復興建築，位於我們為加州大學法學院服務的裝飾藝術風格建築內。奧的斯將安裝五部配備 Compass 目的地調度系統的第三代電梯，在提供先進垂直運輸的同時，保留建築物的歷史特色。該專案由奧的斯長期合作夥伴 Plant Construction 公司負責管理，彰顯了我們對品質、創新和遺產保護的承諾。

In China, Otis was awarded the largest bond-funded elevator renewal project in Shanghai with 106 units at the Sunshine Waterfront Residential Community. We're upgrading legacy Otis roped elevators to our Otis Arise MOD packages, preserving key components to optimize the bond budget, and adding AI-enabled safety cameras to prevent e-bike entry.

在中國，奧的斯獲得了上海陽光海濱住宅社區106套電梯的債券融資更新項目，這是上海最大的電梯更新項目。我們正在將傳統的奧的斯繩索式電梯升級為我們的奧的斯 Arise MOD 套件，保留關鍵部件以優化債券預算，並添加人工智慧安全攝影機以防止電動自行車進入。

Our customer has requested handover by year-end with a fast-paced schedule requiring 10 units replaced every 10 days. This project showcases our ability to deliver safe, and efficient solutions under tight time lines. In Dubai, we've secured a new project with Sobha Realty to equip Sobha SeaHaven, a premium residential development in Dubai Marina.

我們的客戶要求在年底前完成交接，進度非常快，需要每 10 天更換 10 個單位。此專案展現了我們在緊迫的時間限制內提供安全、高效解決方案的能力。在杜拜，我們與 Sobha Realty 達成了一項新合作，為位於杜拜碼頭的 Sobha SeaHaven 高端住宅開發項目提供配套設施。

Otis will supply 29 units, including 25 SkyRise elevators, and four Gen 2 machine roomless high-speed systems, as well as our EMS 2.0 Elevator Management System. This project further reinforces our presence in the high-end residential segment and marks an important step in building a strong relationship with Sobha Realty.

奧的斯將提供 29 台設備，包括 25 台 SkyRise 電梯、4 套第二代無機房高速電梯系統以及我們的 EMS 2.0 電梯管理系統。該項目進一步鞏固了我們在高端住宅領域的地位，並標誌著我們與 Sobha Realty 建立牢固關係的重要一步。

In South Korea, Otis was selected for the Landmark K project, the first urban architectural design innovation project designated by the sole metropolitan government. We'll provide a total of 54 units, including 25 SkyRise elevators, and Compass 360 destination management system to optimize passenger journeys. This project highlights our role in shaping next-generation urban mobility, and we're proud to support this innovative development in Seoul.

在韓國，奧的斯被選中參與 Landmark K 項目，這是由唯一的都會區政府指定的第一個城市建築設計創新項目。我們將提供總共 54 個單元，包括 25 部 SkyRise 電梯和 Compass 360 目的地管理系統，以優化乘客旅程。該計畫凸顯了我們在塑造下一代城市交通方面所發揮的作用，我們很榮幸能夠支持首爾的這項創新發展。

Finally, last week, I had the privilege of joining our customers at the celebratory ribbon cutting of the new JPMorgan Chase Global headquarters in New York at 270 Park Avenue. Otis installed 89 units, including 72 high-performance SkyRise elevators and 12 escalators, and introduced our Compass Infinity AI dispatching system, which continuously learns and optimizes passenger flow. We're proud to support JPMorgan Chase at this landmark site and beyond.

最後，上週我有幸與我們的客戶一起參加了位於紐約公園大道 270 號的摩根大通全球新總部的剪綵慶祝活動。奧的斯安裝了 89 台設備，其中包括 72 台高性能 SkyRise 電梯和 12 台自動扶梯，並引入了我們的 Compass Infinity AI 調度系統，該系統能夠不斷學習和優化客流。我們很榮幸能夠支持摩根大通在這個具有里程碑意義的地點及其他領域。

Turning to our third quarter results on slide 5. Otis delivered net sales of $3.7 billion with organic sales up 2%. Adjusted operating profit margin, excluding a $17 million foreign exchange tailwind, increased by $16 million driven by strength in the Service segment.

接下來請看投影片5，了解我們的第三季業績。奧的斯實現淨銷售額 37 億美元，有機銷售額成長 2%。經調整後的營業利潤率（不包括 1,700 萬美元的外匯利好因素）成長了 1,600 萬美元，主要得益於服務部門的強勁表現。

Adjusted operating margin expanded by 20 basis points to 17.1%. Adjusted EPS grew approximately 9%, or $0.09 in the quarter, driven by strong operational performance, favorable foreign exchange rates, a lower tax rate, and a lower share count. Adjusted free cash flow was $337 million in the quarter, and $766 million year-to-date.

經調整後的營業利益率成長20個基點至17.1%。調整後的每股盈餘在本季度增長約 9%，即 0.09 美元，這主要得益於強勁的營運業績、有利的匯率、較低的稅率以及較低的流通股數量。本季調整後自由現金流為 3.37 億美元，年初至今為 7.66 億美元。

With that, I'll turn it over to Cristina to walk through our results in more detail.

接下來，我將把發言權交給克里斯蒂娜，讓她更詳細地講解我們的結果。

Thank you, Judy. Starting with service on slide 6. Service organic sales grew 6% with growth in all lines of business. This acceleration represents the highest organic service sales growth this year, in line with expectations, and demonstrates the fundamentals of our service flywheel. Maintenance and repair organic sales grew 4%, with maintenance driven by 4% portfolio growth and 3% positive price, partially offset by mix and churn.

謝謝你，朱迪。從第6張投影片開始。服務業有機銷售額成長了 6%，所有業務線均成長。這一加速成長代表了今年最高的有機服務銷售成長，符合預期，並證明了我們服務飛輪的基本原理。維護和維修業務的有機銷售額增長了 4%，其中維護業務的增長得益於 4% 的產品組合增長和 3% 的價格上漲，但部分被產品組合變化和客戶流失所抵消。

Our repair business continued to accelerate to 7% growth year-over-year. After the first half of the year are marked by the transformation changes in our branches, as expected, repair activity is improving in the second half. And we expect repurchases to continue ramping up to 10% growth or above in the fourth quarter.

我們的維修業務持續加速成長，年增7%。今年上半年，我們各分公司經歷了轉型變化，正如預期的那樣，下半年維修活動有所改善。我們預計第四季股票回購將繼續加速成長，增幅達到 10% 或更高。

Modernization sales also saw significant acceleration in the quarter, with organic sales growth of 14% on the back of our robust growing backlog at the end of the second quarter. Furthermore, the outlook for modernization remains strong. And the 18 installed base should continue to support sustainable modernization growth in the coming years.

本季現代化銷售也顯著加速成長，得益於第二季末強勁成長的積壓訂單，有機銷售額成長了 14%。此外，現代化前景依然強勁。而現有的 18 台設備將繼續為未來幾年的可持續現代化成長提供支援。

Service operating profit of $621 million increased $49 million at constant currency with higher volume, favorable pricing and productivity more than offsetting higher labor costs and mix and churn. Operating profit margins expanded 70 basis points to 25.5% in the quarter, the highest margin expansion of the year. And marked another record quarter in service making since spin.

服務業營業利潤為 6.21 億美元，以固定匯率計算增長了 4,900 萬美元，這主要得益於銷售成長、價格優勢和生產效率提高，足以抵消勞動力成本上升以及產品組合和客戶流失率增加的影響。本季營業利益率成長70個基點至25.5%，為今年以來最高增幅。自旋轉以來，服務收入又創下了一個季度的新紀錄。

Turning now to new equipment on slide 7. New Equipment organic sales declined 5% in the quarter as the strength in Asia Pacific and EMEA were more than offset by declines in China and the Americas. EMEA sales grew 3%, driven by robust growth in the Middle East, while Europe was relatively flat.

現在就來看看投影片 7 中的新裝置。由於亞太地區和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的強勁成長被中國和美洲地區的下滑所抵消，本季新設備有機銷售額下降了 5%。EMEA 地區的銷售額成長了 3%，主要得益於中東地區的強勁成長，而歐洲地區的銷售額則相對持平。

Asia Pacific grew high single digits, driven by strong growth in India, Japan and Southeast Asia, partially offset by weakness in Korea. Americas declined 7% as we continue to work through last year's backlog. However, thanks to solid orders performance for five consecutive quarters, Americas growing backlog provides line of sight for the region to deliver positive new equipment sales growth in the near future.

亞太地區實現了接近兩位數的成長，主要得益於印度、日本和東南亞的強勁成長，但韓國的疲軟部分抵消了這一成長。由於我們仍在處理去年的積壓訂單，美洲地區的訂單量下降了 7%。然而，由於連續五個季度訂單表現穩健，美洲不斷增長的積壓訂單為該地區在不久的將來實現新設備銷售的積極增長提供了前景。

Excluding China, our [neo cuban] backlog grew 8%. And while China is still relatively weak, the sales decline versus the prior year is expected to moderate in the second half. China new equipment sales declined approximately 20% in the third quarter.

除中國外，我們的[新古巴]積壓訂單增加了 8%。儘管中國市場依然相對疲軟，但預計下半年銷售額較上年同期下滑的幅度將有所收窄。第三季中國新設備銷售額下降約20%。

New equipment operating profit of $59 million declined $24 million at constant currency, and operating profit margins declined 170 basis points to 4.7%. The operating profit decline was driven by lower volumes and favorable price tariff headwinds and mix. These were partially offset by productivity, including the benefits of restructuring actions.

新設備營運利潤為 5,900 萬美元，以固定匯率計算下降了 2,400 萬美元，營運利潤率下降了 170 個基點至 4.7%。營業利潤下降的原因是銷售下降、價格關稅不利因素以及產品組合變動。這些損失部分被生產力提高所抵消，其中包括重組措施帶來的好處。

The margin decline was more moderate than anticipated. Thanks to better-than-expected sales, especially in Americas, and ongoing efforts to reduce cost as part of our China transformation. Due to our progress, we now anticipate 2025 in-year savings of approximately $30 million from the China transformation as we have captured more than $20 million year-to-date. On an annual run rate basis, we continue to target approximately $40 million per year.

利潤率下降幅度比預期要緩和。由於銷售額超出預期，尤其是在美洲地區，以及作為我們中國轉型計劃的一部分而不斷努力降低成本。由於我們取得的進展，我們現在預計到 2025 年，透過中國轉型將節省約 3,000 萬美元，因為我們今年迄今已經節省了 2,000 多萬美元。以年度運行率計算，我們仍以每年約 4000 萬美元為目標。

Our average savings targets have not changed. We continue to expect 2025 in-year savings of $70 million, and to reach annual run rate savings of $200 million by the end of the year. Note, we have reduced our expected full year '25 restructuring and transformation costs to approximately $220 million.

我們的平均儲蓄目標並沒有改變。我們仍預計 2025 年當年可節省 7,000 萬美元，並在年底前實現年度運行率節省 2 億美元。請注意，我們已將預計 2025 年全年重組和轉型成本減少至約 2.2 億美元。

I will now turn it back to Judy to discuss our 2025 outlook.

現在我將把話題交還給朱迪，讓她來討論我們對 2025 年的展望。

Thanks, Cristina. Starting on slide 8 with the market outlook. Before discussing our updated 2025 outlook, I'd like to briefly discuss our global market expectations. We've continued to see improvements in the Americas. Therefore, we are upgrading our outlook to up low single digits.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。從第 8 頁開始，展望市場前景。在討論我們更新後的 2025 年展望之前，我想先簡單討論一下我們對全球市場的預期。我們在美洲地區持續看到進步。因此，我們將預期上調至個位數成長。

This upgrade is supported by continued growth in the US and Canada, particularly within the infrastructure and residential verticals. Notably, we've also seen encouraging developments in the data center segment this quarter, a vertical, we believe, holds strong potential for sustained growth given increasing demand for digital infrastructure.

此次升級得益於美國和加拿大市場的持續成長，尤其是在基礎設施和住宅領域。值得注意的是，本季資料中心領域也出現了令人鼓舞的發展，我們認為，鑑於對數位基礎設施的需求不斷增長，該垂直領域具有持續增長的巨大潛力。

Our outlook for EMEA in Asia remains unchanged with EMEA growing low single digits, and Asia declining high single digits. In EMEA, we continue to see greater than 20% growth in the Middle East supported by strong project activity and urban development.

我們對歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞洲的展望保持不變，歐洲、中東和非洲地區將實現個位數低成長，而亞洲將出現個位數高下降。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們繼續看到中東地區超過 20% 的成長，這得益於強勁的專案活動和城市發展。

Central and Southern Europe are on pace for mid-single-digit growth, partially offset by softer trends in Western Europe and the UK and Nordics. Within Asia, our outlook for China is unchanged, down low teens. Overall, we continue to expect a mid-single-digit decline globally.

中歐和南歐有望實現個位數中段的成長，但西歐、英國和北歐地區的成長放緩部分抵消了這一成長。在亞洲方面，我們對中國的展望保持不變，仍為十幾個百分點。總體而言，我們仍然預期全球經濟將出現中等個位數的下滑。

But while new equipment industry orders are expected to decline this year, we anticipate the industry installed base will continue to grow mid-single digits, with low single-digit growth in Americas and EMEA, and mid-single-digit growth in Asia. This growth reflects the 830,000 units that were installed two years ago that are now rolling off their warranty period.

儘管預計今年新設備行業的訂單將會下降，但我們預計該行業的裝機量將繼續保持中等個位數的增長，其中美洲和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的增長將達到低個位數，而亞洲地區的增長將達到中等個位數。這一增長反映了兩年前安裝的 83 萬台設備現在正陸續超出保固期。

Turning to our financial outlook. We continue to expect our Service segment to drive full year revenue and profit growth. We anticipate total net sales of $14.5 billion to $14.6 billion, with organic sales growth of approximately 1%. The third quarter marked our return to organic sales growth, driven by accelerating repair and modernization, as well as moderating declines in new equipment organic sales.

接下來談談我們的財務前景。我們仍然預期服務業務板塊將推動全年營收和利潤成長。我們預計總淨銷售額為 145 億美元至 146 億美元，有機銷售額將成長約 1%。第三季標誌著我們恢復了有機銷售成長，這得益於維修和現代化改造的加速，以及新設備有機銷售下滑幅度的放緩。

We expect these improving trends to continue in the fourth quarter. These trends should also flow through to the bottom line. Our adjusted operating profit outlook is $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion, up $75 million to $95 million at actual currency including the impact of incremental tariffs imposed in 2025. We've narrowed the range and increased the midpoint of our adjusted EPS outlook to $4.04 to $4.08, representing an increase of 5% to 7% compared to 2024.

我們預計這些改善趨勢將在第四季度繼續保持。這些趨勢最終也會反映在企業的獲利上。我們調整後的營業利潤預期為 24 億美元至 25 億美元，按實際匯率計算將增加 7,500 萬美元至 9,500 萬美元，其中包括 2025 年徵收的額外關稅的影響。我們縮小了調整後每股收益預期範圍，並將中點值提高至 4.04 美元至 4.08 美元，與 2024 年相比增長 5% 至 7%。

We anticipate adjusted free cash flow of approximately $1.45 billion for the year, in line with the midpoint of the previous guide. As I previously mentioned, in the third quarter, we completed our full year target of approximately $800 million in share repurchases.

我們預計全年調整後自由現金流約為 14.5 億美元，與先前預期的中點一致。正如我之前提到的，在第三季度，我們完成了全年約 8 億美元的股票回購目標。

I'll now pass it back to Cristina to review the 2025 outlook in more detail.

現在我將把這項工作交還給克里斯蒂娜，讓她更詳細地審查2025年的展望。

Thank you, Judy. Moving to our organic sales outlook on slide 9. We continue to expect organic sales growth of approximately 1% for the full year, driven by strength in our service business, partially offset by a decline in new equipment as we work through last year's backlog.

謝謝你，朱迪。接下來，我們將討論第 9 頁的有機銷售展望。我們仍預計全年有機銷售額將成長約 1%，這主要得益於我們服務業務的強勁表現，但部分被去年積壓訂單導致的新設備銷售下降所抵消。

Within new equipment, we have improved our Americas organic sales outlook to down mid-single digits, due to improving shipments in the second half of the year. We have seen five consecutive quarters of orders growth in the region, and we have a solid backlog entering the fourth quarter.

由於下半年出貨量有所改善，加上新設備的投入，我們已將美洲地區的有機銷售預期調整為下降個位數中段。該地區訂單已連續五個季度增長，進入第四季度時，我們的訂單儲備充足。

Asia is still expected to decline low teens with high single-digit growth in Asia Pacific, more than offset by a greater than 20% decline in China. As mentioned before, the China new equipment sales year-over-year decline is moderating sequentially in the back half of the year, thanks to an easy comparison.

預計亞洲經濟仍將出現兩位數以下的下滑，亞太地區將實現個位數以上的成長，但這將被中國超過 20% 的降幅所抵消。如前所述，由於上半年基數較小，中國新設備銷售額年減幅度在下半年環比放緩。

And taken together, we expect new equipment organic sales to decline approximately 7% for the full year. Within service, we have maintained our growth outlook across all segments. Maintenance and repair is expected to grow mid-single digits within range of our previous outlook.

綜合來看，我們預計全年新設備有機銷售額將下降約 7%。在服務業方面，我們維持了各細分市場的成長預期。預計維修保養費用將以中等個位數成長，與我們先前的預期基本一致。

The change to mid-single-digit growth is mainly rounding given maintenance and repair has grown 4% year-to-date, and we expect approximately 5% growth in the fourth quarter. We anticipate repair to continue ramping up with growth accelerating to 10% or above in the fourth quarter.

成長率從個位數中段轉為個位數主要是由於四捨五入造成的，因為維護和維修業務今年迄今成長了 4%，我們預計第四季將成長約 5%。我們預計維修業務將持續加速成長，第四季成長率將達到 10% 或更高。

We are pleased to see the repair backlog normalizing with shorter execution time, driving customer satisfaction. And we are well resourced to execute as we have continued to ramp up field mechanics similar to last year. In modernization, after a solid third quarter, we have good line of sight to deliver approximately 10% growth in 2025 on the back of our strong backlog.

我們很高興看到維修積壓情況逐漸正常化，執行時間縮短，從而提高了客戶滿意度。我們擁有充足的資源來執行任務，因為我們一直像去年一樣不斷加強現場運作機制。在現代化方面，經過穩健的第三季度，憑藉強勁的訂單儲備，我們有信心在 2025 年實現約 10% 的成長。

Turning to our financial outlook on slide 10. We now expect adjusted operating profit to grow $75 million to $95 million on an actual currency basis, including the impact of tariffs. On a constant currency basis and excluding the impact of tariffs, we expect adjusted operating profit to grow $65 million to $85 million.

接下來請看第 10 頁的財務展望。我們現在預計，以實際匯率計算，包括關稅的影響在內，調整後的營業利潤將增加 7,500 萬美元至 9,500 萬美元。以固定匯率計算，不計關稅影響，我們預計調整後的營業利潤將增加 6,500 萬美元至 8,500 萬美元。

We continue to anticipate a tariff impact of approximately $30 million for the full year, assuming current receipt profile and Section 232 tariff rates. As a reminder, the tariff impact is primarily in our key 2025 backlog as we have adjusted contract terms and pricing.

我們預計全年關稅影響約為 3,000 萬美元，假設目前的收款情況和第 232 條款關稅稅率不變​​。再次提醒，關稅的影響主要體現在我們 2025 年的關鍵積壓訂單中，因為我們已經調整了合約條款和定價。

Adjusted operating margin is expected to expand by approximately 30 basis points, in line with our previous expectations. Cash flow has sequentially improved in the third quarter, and we have good line of sight to deliver the guide of approximately $145 billion for the year, as we anticipate fourth quarter cash flow to be in line with last year.

經調整後的營業利潤率預計將成長約 30 個基點，與我們先前的預期一致。第三季現金流較上季改善，我們有信心實現全年約 1,450 億美元的業績指引，預計第四季現金流將與去年持平。

Looking at the big picture, 2025 is on the pace to be another challenging year in new equipment with sales declining over $350 million at constant currency, similar to '24. Despite of ongoing challenge in new equipment price and volumes, we are effectively managing costs to mitigate our decremental margins.

從宏觀角度來看，2025 年對於新設備市場來說又將是充滿挑戰的一年，以固定匯率計算，銷售額將下降超過 3.5 億美元，與 2024 年的情況類似。儘管新設備價格和銷售持續面臨挑戰，但我們正在有效地控製成本，以減少利潤率的下降。

At the same time, we expect to deliver another year of solid adjusted operating profit growth, thanks to the strength of our service flywheel, with 5% top line growth driven by volume and price, and ongoing margin expansion driven by density, productivity and our uplift program.

同時，由於我們服務飛輪的強勁動力，我們預計今年將實現穩健的調整後營業利潤增長，其中銷量和價格將推動營收增長 5%，而密度、生產力和我們的提升計劃將推動利潤率持續擴張。

Moving to 2025 EPS bridge on slide 11. We are narrowing the range and raising the midpoint of our outlook. With only two months to go, we now have good visibility for full year results. We expect full year adjusted EPS of $4.04 to $4.08. This is driven by a strong operational performance in our Service segment, partially offset by a decline in new equipment.

第 11 頁將介紹 2025 年 EPS 橋樑。我們正在縮小預期範圍，並提高預期中位數。距離全年業績公佈僅剩兩個月，我們現在對全年業績有了較為清晰的了解。我們預計全年調整後每股收益為 4.04 美元至 4.08 美元。這主要得益於服務部門強勁的營運業績，但部分被新設備需求下降所抵銷。

Favorable foreign exchange rates and a lower share count are expected to offset headwinds from tariffs and higher interest income -- interest expense. Taken together, this represents adjusted EPS growth of 5% to 7% for the year. While it is too early to provide formal 2026 guidance, we remain confident we can continue to deliver solid earnings growth in the coming years through the strength of our service-driven business model.

有利的匯率和較低的股份數量預計將抵消關稅和更高的利息收入-利息支出帶來的不利影響。綜合來看，這意味著全年調整後每股收益成長5%至7%。雖然現在提供 2026 年的正式業績指引還為時過早，但我們仍然有信心，憑藉我們以服務為導向的商業模式的優勢，在未來幾年繼續實現穩健的盈利增長。

The global installed base continues to expand supporting mid-single-digit growth in our service portfolio, which should continue to drive our maintenance and repair business. We are also in the early things of a multiyear growth cycle in modernization, due to the aging of the installed base. Combined with our productivity and cost savings initiatives, we have a strong foundation to continue delivering sustainable revenue and earnings growth.

全球裝機量持續成長，支撐著我們的服務組合實現個位數中段的成長，這將繼續推動我們的維護和維修業務發展。由於現有設備老化，我們也正處於多年現代化成長週期的初期階段。結合我們的生產力提升和成本節約舉措，我們擁有堅實的基礎，可以繼續實現可持續的收入和獲利成長。

With that, I will kindly ask Sarah to please open the line for questions. Thank you.

那麼，我謹請莎拉開通提問專線。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬‧奧迪亞，富國銀行。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Can you talk a little bit about the efforts that are underway on the maintenance side in terms of what you're doing on retention and recapture. And when we think about that growth that might be pacing kind of in the 3% range, on revenue, kind of what your visibility is with respect to the time line to see that stepping up as you achieve some of your targets around retention and recapture?

你好。早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。您能否談談在客戶維繫和客戶重新取得方面，你們正在進行哪些維護工作？當我們考慮到營收成長可能在 3% 左右時，您在實現一些關於客戶留存和重新吸引的目標的同時，對實現這一成長的時間線有何預期？

Yeah. Thanks, Joe. As we've shared all year, we were not pleased with where we ended 2024, and we made a conscious decision to invest. Invest in our service excellence, invest to make sure that we could retain our customers more. We'll share those outcomes at fourth quarter statistically.

是的。謝謝喬。正如我們今年一直強調的，我們對2024年的表現並不滿意，所以我們決定進行投資。投資提升服務質量，投資確保我們能更好地留住客戶。我們將在第四季度以統計數據的形式公佈這些結果。

But I will tell you, it's going to be a long journey. We should see some sequential improvement, but returning to the 94% retention rate will take sustained time to rebuild customers' trust, as well as to gain them back. Having said that, we continue to add about 100,000 units this year.

但我可以告訴你，這將會是一段漫長的旅程。我們應該會看到一些循序漸進的改善，但要恢復到 94% 的客戶留存率，需要持續的時間來重建客戶的信任，並重新贏得他們的信任。儘管如此，我們今年仍將新增約 10 萬台設備。

And as I shared in my opening remarks, we're going to approach 2.5 million units in our portfolio. That gives us the density, not just for maintenance and for productivity and maintenance, but it gives us additional repair opportunities, and we'll talk more about that, I'm sure, this morning.

正如我在開場白中提到的，我們的投資組合將接近 250 萬套房屋。這不僅有利於維護和提高生產效率，而且還有利於維修，這為我們提供了額外的維修機會，我相信我們今天早上會更多地討論這個問題。

So we had good line of sight. We understand our conversion rates. We'll share those as well. We're pleased with where those are heading directionally. And again, our focus is on customer satisfaction and driving retention rates up.

所以我們視線很好。我們了解我們的轉換率。我們也會分享這些資訊。我們對它們的發展方向感到滿意。再次強調，我們的重點是客戶滿意度和提高客戶留存率。

Recapture rates. We're pleased with as well, both Otis and non-Otis equipment, and we'll continue to drive towards portfolio growth. We'll share more at our Investor Day next spring, but we do believe that we should be growing at higher than a 4% portfolio. We're pleased we've done that now for over two years after being a traditional 1% growth, but there's more to happen in the maintenance portfolio. So stay tuned.

再捕獲率。我們對奧的斯設備和非奧的斯設備都感到滿意，並將繼續努力實現產品組合的成長。我們將在明年春季的投資者日上分享更多信息，但我們相信我們的投資組合增長率應該高於 4%。我們很高興在過去兩年多的時間裡，我們一直保持著傳統的 1% 的成長，但維護業務組合還有更多發展空間。敬請期待。

I appreciate those details. And then on Americas and new equipment, and what you're seeing and a little bit better outlook there. Just in terms of any more color on kind of how the last few months have kind of unfolded when you talk about infrastructure and resi as some of the verticals where you're seeing a little bit better activity.

我很欣賞這些細節。然後是美洲地區和新設備，以及你所看到的，那裡的前景稍微好轉了一些。就過去幾個月的發展而言，特別是基礎設施和住宅等一些垂直領域，我們看到了一些好轉的跡象，能否再補充一些細節？

Were these things that were in the pipeline, you just didn't think they were going to happen in the back half of the year? And any other color on what you attribute some of the demand kind of coming through here, too?

這些事情原本就在計畫之中，只是你沒想到它們會在下半年發生？還有其他因素也導致了這種需求嗎？

We're much more positive on Americas growth based on two factors. One, the demand we're seeing, and that's even that's only with one interest rate change, but the demand we're seeing. Residential, as I said, infrastructure are driving most of these improvements, but all geographies in the Americas showed growth this quarter. So we were very pleased with that.

基於以下兩個因素，我們對美洲的成長前景更加樂觀。第一，我們看到的需求，即使這只是利率變動一次的結果，但我們確實看到了需求。正如我所說，住宅基礎設施是推動這些改善的主要動力，但美洲所有地區本季都實現了成長。我們對此非常滿意。

The second thing we're seeing, Joe, is on the new equipment execution side that gets us equally excited about the future. We had shared with you last quarter that we had started seeing some challenges at job sites where there had been slowed down by other trades.

喬，我們看到的第二件事是新設備的執行方面，這同樣讓我們對未來感到興奮。上個季度我們曾向大家提到，由於其他工種的施工進度放緩，一些工地出現了一些問題。

As we came through this third quarter, we saw that basically being eliminated and back to a normal cycle of construction at new equipment sites. So with the backlog growing in new equipment in the Americas, and this was our fifth straight quarter of growth in especially in Americas, about 4%, that 4% is on top of 23% same quarter last year.

第三季以來，我們看到這種情況基本上已經解決，新設備安裝地點的建設週期恢復正常。因此，隨著美洲地區新設備的積壓訂單不斷增加，這已經是我們連續第五個季度實現成長，尤其是在美洲地區，成長了約 4%，而去年同期成長了 23%。

So [Joe] and our team are just really driving Joe Armes driving this growth on growth. And we have our great Gen 3 core product that's out there. We're addressing so many different segments now. And so we're really seeing that growth and then it's going to come through. It's five quarters now. We say there's about an 18-month lag especially in North America from the time we take an order until we see that revenue come through, which is why we're feeling good about Americas revenue in the next few quarters.

所以，喬和我們的團隊正在全力推動喬·阿姆斯實現持續成長。我們還有非常棒的第三代核心產品，它已經上市了。我們現在要關注的領域非常廣泛。所以我們現在確實看到了這種成長，而且這種成長終將實現。現在已經過去五個季度了。我們說，尤其是在北美，從接到訂單到看到收入到帳大約有 18 個月的延遲時間，這就是為什麼我們對未來幾季美洲的收入感到樂觀的原因。

Thank you. Appreciate it.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe，Wolfe Research。

Thanks. Good morning. So really nice momentum in repair activity. I think you said, Judy, 10% growth in repair in the fourth quarter. Just maybe just talk about sort of the visibility on that. And really what's driving this sort of this crunch towards growth in the back half of the year?

謝謝。早安.維修活動動能良好。朱迪，我想你說過，第四季維修業務成長了 10%。或許可以談談這方面的可見性問題。究竟是什麼因素推動了下半年快速成長的趨勢？

And then just maybe the implied maintenance growth would be probably sub 4% when we back up repair. I know that mix is a negative headwind to the kind of the core maintenance growth rate. So maybe just talk about where are you seeing the pressure points on mix and how that resolves, or kind of improves as we go into 2026?

那麼，當我們把維修工作放在次要位置時，隱含的維護成長率可能就會低於 4%。我知道這種組合對核心維護成長率來說是不利的。那麼，或許可以談談您認為混音中的壓力點在哪裡，以及隨著我們進入 2026 年，這些問題將如何解決或改善？

Sure, Nigel. I will -- let me take the repair and I'll hand over the maintenance to Cristina. If you look at our sequential repair improvement started out fairly anemic at 1% growth in the first quarter, went to 6% in the second quarter, we were 7% this quarter, and we have line of sight to at least 10% in the fourth quarter, which gives us the confidence for the outlook for maintenance and repair to be mid-single digit. Especially now through October, we're seeing orders pick up as well.

當然可以，奈傑爾。我會負責維修，保養工作交給克里斯蒂娜。如果你看一下我們的維修業務連續性改善情況，你會發現第一季成長相當疲弱，僅為 1%，第二季成長到 6%，本季達到 7%，而且我們有信心在第四季成長相當疲軟，這讓我們有信心，維護和維修業務的前景將達到中等個位數的成長。尤其從現在到十月份，訂單量也不斷增加。

So that gives us even more confidence in repair. But I was pleased to see us really with that revenue growth, two straight quarters, 6% and 7% and now 10%. We are going to turn that backlog much quicker. And Cristina mentioned that helps with customer satisfaction. No one wants to wait in the queue to get an elevator or an escalator repaired. So we have made sure we have our mechanics available, the parts available, and we put a concentrated effort to backlog conversion.

這讓我們對維修更有信心了。但我很高興地看到我們的營收確實實現了成長，連續兩個季度分別成長了 6% 和 7%，現在達到了 10%。我們將更快地處理積壓的工作。克里斯蒂娜提到，這有助於提高客戶滿意度。誰都不願意排隊等電梯或手扶梯維修。因此，我們確保了技工到位、零件充足，並專注於積壓訂單的轉換。

And that rolls through the modernization backlog conversion as well. You'll recall that was 5% second quarter. Now, again, for organic, it's 14% this quarter and our backlog is still growing. So we've got pretty good line of sight to the Service revenues and what's going to happen in the fourth quarter. And especially in repair, as you know, elevators are aging.

這也同樣適用於現代化積壓工作的轉換。你應該記得，第二季是 5%。現在，就有機銷售額而言，本季佔比為 14%，而且我們的積壓訂單仍在成長。因此，我們對服務收入以及第四季的發展趨勢有了相當清晰的了解。尤其是在維修方面，如您所知，電梯正在老化。

We've got 8 million plus over 20 years old. And when they don't become modernized, they do tend to break more frequently because of usage and age. And so we think the repair business is going to stay strong. I think it could moderate over time back to kind of more traditional mid to high single digit versus 10%, but we think it's going to remain strong.

我們有超過 800 萬 20 歲以上的人。而且，如果它們不進行現代化改造，就會因為使用和老化而更容易發生故障。因此我們認為維修業務將會保持強勁勢頭。我認為隨著時間的推移，成長速度可能會回落到更傳統的個位數中高段，而不是 10%，但我們認為成長速度仍將保持強勁。

Cristina, I'll turn maintenance to you.

克里斯蒂娜，維護工作就交給你了。

Yeah, Nigel, on maintenance, we have always said that we like seeing maintenance and repair together because depending on where you are in the world, the contractual setup is different. You have places where everything is included. Therefore, everything is in maintenance. Others where the maintenance fee is smaller, but then we have a lot of repair activity. So it's better to see them together.

是的，Nigel，關於維護，我們一直認為維護和修理應該放在一起，因為根據你在世界哪個地方，合約安排是不同的。有些地方什麼都包含在內。因此，所有設備都在維護中。有些地方維護費較低，但維修工作量卻很大。所以最好還是讓他們一起出現。

But talking about maintenance specifically. Our performance this year has been very stable. Year-to-date, we have grown maintenance 3%, and we expect this to continue going forward. The formula is as follows. We are growing portfolio of 4%. We have a 3% price, and that means that there is a headwind in mix and churn. And this is exactly the area we are focusing on at the moment.

但這裡具體指的是維護保養方面。我們今年的業績一直非常穩定。今年迄今為止，我們的維護費用成長了 3%，我們預計未來將繼續成長。公式如下。我們的投資組合成長了 4%。我們的價格是 3%，這意味著產品組合和客戶流失率方面存在不利因素。而這正是我們目前關注的領域。

Judy mentioned before, all the actions around customer retention improvement, investment in service excellence. This is going to be a mid-term journey, but we are positive about the initial results we are getting from those investments.

朱迪之前提到過，所有旨在提高客戶留存率、投資於卓越服務的措施。這將是一個中期過程，但我們對這些投資目前的初步成果感到樂觀。

And the other headwind will be the geographic mix of the growth, and we are also focusing on growing in high-value markets. And also focusing on a more sophisticated price algorithm. So with all of these components, we expect maintenance growth to improve going forward. But again, the best way to look into this is to bundle maintenance and repair.

另一個不利因素是成長的地域組成，我們也專注於在高價值市場實現成長。同時，我們也致力於開發更複雜的定價演算法。綜上所述，我們預期維護成本的成長將在未來有所改善。但再次強調，最好的方法是將維護和維修結合起來進行研究。

Okay. I think we'll follow up offline [on the deal]. Maybe just a quick one on 4Q new equipment margins. 3Q came in a bit better, obviously, not great margins, but it came in a bit better than we expected. I'm just wondering if the [furlough] maybe wasn't quite as impactful as expected. And then the question we're getting is normally 4Q margins would be much lower in new equipment than 3Q. That doesn't seem to be what you're signaling. So just maybe talk about that as well.

好的。我想我們會線下跟進。[關於這筆交易]。或許可以簡單談談第四季新設備利潤率。第三季的情況略有好轉，利潤率雖然不算很高，但比我們預期的要好一些。我只是在想，（臨時停工）的影響可能沒有預期的那麼大。然後我們得到的問題是，通常情況下，第四季新設備的利潤率會比第三季低得多。這似乎不是你想要表達的意思。所以或許也可以談談這個話題。

Let me talk to 3Q. So we had two things really help us on margins in 3Q. One, our team in China really accelerated. We entered this year -- as I step back, we entered this year knowing we needed to transform our China business. And our team took that on.

讓我和3Q談談。所以，第三季有兩個因素真正幫助我們提高了利潤率。第一，我們在中國的團隊發展速度確實加快了。今年年初——現在回過頭來看——我們就知道，我們需要對我們在中國的業務進行改革。我們的團隊承擔了這項任務。

We did our China transformation and we're now going to achieve $30 million in savings. We've already achieved $20 million now. We're going to achieve $30 million. That all gets reflected in that cost takeout line and new equipment. So by accelerating that, that helped. The other thing that helped was just more shipments than we had originally predicted out of our North America factory in Florence. So those are the two reasons that drove the margin expansion.

我們已經完成了中國市場轉型，現在將實現 3,000 萬美元的成本節約。我們現在已經籌集到了2000萬美元。我們將實現3000萬美元的目標。所有這些都會體現在成本削減和新設備方面。所以加快這個過程是有幫助的。另一個有幫助的因素是，我們位於佛羅倫薩的北美工廠的出貨量比我們最初預測的要多。所以，以上就是推動利潤率擴張的兩個原因。

Yeah. And on Q4, Nigel, so we expect margins to be around 4%. Q4 margins are seasonally lower than Q3. But we also need to bear in mind that because of the new equipment segment getting smaller, there is much more volatility on margins.

是的。第四季度，Nigel，我們預期利潤率在 4% 左右。第四季利潤率通常低於第三季。但我們也需要記住，由於新設備市場規模越來越小，利潤率的波動性也更大。

Having said that, because of the positive trends we see in the moderating decline in new equipment sales, together with the accelerated savings in China transformation, we are positive at our new equipment margins being around 4% in the quarter. That full year would be approximately 130 basis points down versus previous year.

儘管如此，由於我們看到新設備銷售下滑速度放緩，以及中國轉型過程中成本節約加速，因此我們對本季新設備利潤率在 4% 左右持樂觀態度。全年降幅將比前一年下降約 130 個基點。

Okay. Very helpful.

好的。很有幫助。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

Jeff Sprague，Vertical Research。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Can we just talk a little bit more about price? You noted price continues to be up on the Service side. I would suspect there's still a meaningful geographic difference China versus rest of the world, but can you give us a little more color on what you're kind of booking on new business today?

嘿，謝謝。各位早安。我們可以再稍微談談價格嗎？您提到服務方面的價格持續上漲。我懷疑中國與世界其他地區仍然存在顯著的地理差異，但您能否更詳細地介紹一下您目前在新業務方面的情況？

Yeah. In terms of Service pricing, like-for-like pricing increased 3 points in the quarter. Obviously, inflation has receded somewhat in most of the world. But in mature markets, where most of our service portfolio resides now, Jeff, EMEA was up low single digits. They had a tougher compare because of their ITC program in Spain. So they did have a tougher compare, but they're doing really well. And Americas was up mid-single digits and Asia Pacific up low single digits.

是的。就服務定價而言，本季同類產品定價上漲了 3 個百分點。顯然，世界大部分地區的通貨膨脹已經有所緩解。但傑夫表示，在成熟市場（我們目前大部分的服務組合都位於這些市場），歐洲、中東和非洲地區的增幅僅為個位數。由於他們在西班牙開展了ITC項目，所以他們的比較難度更高。所以他們的對比對象確實更強大，但他們的表現非常出色。美洲地區成長了中等個位數，亞太地區成長了低個位數。

In China, as you know, the margin drivers are less on price and more on density and everything else. Mix and churn for Service was flat. Now China Service, our team continued to grow our Service portfolio in the teens yet again.

在中國，如你所知，利潤率的驅動因素與其說是價格，不如說是密度和其他因素。混合和攪拌服務都很平淡。現在，中國服務團隊繼續擴大了我們的服務組合，再次達到了十幾項。

And our Service units, that was the 16th straight quarter of teens growth in our China portfolio. We believe we're going to end the year approaching 500,000 units of those 2.5 million units in China. So our Service revenue there was up slightly. And our China team, I would tell you to put it all in perspective -- Cristina said maintenance repair. I would say, add maintenance, repair and modernization in China.

我們的服務部門在中國的業務連續第 16 個季度實現了兩位數的成長。我們相信，到今年年底，我們在中國市場的銷售量將接近 50 萬台，而我們今年的總銷量將達到 250 萬台。因此，我們在該領域的服務收入略有成長。至於我們的中國團隊，我想告訴你們要全面看待這個問題──克里斯蒂娜說是維修保養。我認為，還要加上中國的維護、修理和現代化改造。

Our China modernization was up substantively. Our orders were up 150%-plus in China for modernization. When we look at those bond stimulus orders, we were ready earlier this year. We're going to convert a lot of those to sales. We have a tough compare in fourth quarter from last year on those.

我們的中國現代化進程取得了實質進展。我們在中國用於現代化改造的訂單成長了150%以上。當我們回顧這些債券刺激計劃時，會發現我們今年早些時候就已經準備好了。我們將把其中許多轉化為銷售額。第四季與去年同期相比，我們面臨很大的比較壓力。

So I wouldn't expect that similar number. But the China team has just really brought home this MOD stimulus to where we do believe we are leading the order value in China amongst all of our peers for the MOD residential bond program.

所以我並不預期會有類似的數字。但中國團隊確實成功地將國防部的刺激計劃落實到位，我們相信，在國防部住宅債券計劃中，我們在中國訂單金額方面領先所有同業。

Interesting. And then on the new equipment side, can you kind of do a similar kind of geographic rundown for us on price? And I think Cristina said, only pre 2025 backlog has not been repriced. I wouldn't imagine there's a whole lot of pre 2025 backlog left, but maybe I misunderstood the comment there.

有趣的。那麼，關於新設備方面，您能否也為我們做一份類似的地域性價格概覽？我記得克里斯蒂娜說過，只有 2025 年之前的積壓訂單還沒有重新定價。我估計 2025 年之前應該不會還有很多積壓的工作，但也許我誤解了那個評論。

Yeah, there's still some pre 2025 backlog left in the US. So I think when you're looking at, will there be some tariff impact in 2026 based on what we know today? Of reciprocal and 232 tariffs, there will be some. It should not be as much as we had this year, but there will be some. When we think about new equipment pricing, it's up low single digit outside of China.

是的，美國還有一些2025年之前的積壓訂單。所以我認為，根據我們今天所了解的情況，在展望2026年時，關稅是否會受到一些影響？互惠關稅和 232 關稅中會有一些。雖然不會像今年那麼多，但還是會有一些。當我們考慮新設備定價時，除中國以外，其價格漲幅僅為個位數。

And obviously, China, the pricing was down roughly 10% in the third quarter. And what we have done to really drive back to close to price cost neutral is use cost-out, productivity, tailwinds on commodities and our China transformation program. So all of those have contributed. I would tell you, strategically, we were prepared for this. And in new equipment market in China, Jeff, we are seeing sequential improvement.

顯然，在中國，第三季的價格下降了約 10%。我們為真正實現價格成本中立目標所做的，是利用成本削減、提高生產力、大宗商品價格上漲的利多因素以及我們的中國轉型計劃。所以所有這些因素都起到了作用。從策略角度來看，我們對此早有準備。傑夫，在中國的新設備市場，我們看到的是持續改善。

The second half, we think is going to be down 10%, versus down 15% for the first half. And our team outperformed that. Our third quarter [old] new equipment orders. And as you look at the second half, we really expect to be down mid-single digit versus second half last year. That's to me that the real turn in for us on stabilization.

我們認為下半年將下降 10%，而上半年將下降 15%。而我們的團隊表現得比這更好。我們第三季[舊]新設備訂單。展望下半年，我們預期與去年下半年相比，降幅將達到個位數中段。對我來說，這才是我們實現穩定的真正轉捩點。

Great. Thank you for that.

偉大的。謝謝。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning. Can you -- I guess you talked about retention. Is it still getting better sequentially? And do you still have a target for year-end to be -- for retention to be at least up year-over-year? Getting better?

嘿，早安。您好——我猜您剛才談到了客戶留存率。情況還在逐年好轉嗎？你們今年的最終目標是否仍然是——至少要實現比前一年更高的客戶留存率？好轉了嗎？

I think it's very slightly improved. When we lose a customer, they do a multiyear service contract with someone else. So that's why it's so impactful and why we're laser focused on it to make sure that we're completing -- having the right quality of service, completing everything on time, being responsive to our customers. But I wouldn't anticipate a step function improvement, Steve, when we report this after fourth quarter.

我覺得略有改進。當我們失去一個客戶時，他們會與其他公司簽訂多年服務合約。所以，這就是為什麼它如此重要，也是為什麼我們如此專注於此，以確保我們能夠完成——提供高品質的服務，按時完成所有工作，並對客戶做出及時回應。但史蒂夫，我預計在第四季結束後公佈業績時，不會出現突飛猛進的改善。

We've made the investment now, but it's going to be day-to-day, customer to customer, making sure that anyone who's going to renew, we're focused on them, and we're making the right investments now to keep them.

我們現在已經進行了投資，但接下來需要每天與客戶溝通，確保所有續約客戶都能得到我們的關注，並且我們正在進行正確的投資來留住他們。

Got it. And then just on the Services growth for the fourth quarter. It does look like if repair is going to accelerate. I don't know, like the comp is like on MODS, but if you're kind of stable on the maintenance side, that you should see an acceleration in revenue growth in the fourth quarter at services, right, from 6% to maybe close to 7%?

知道了。然後是第四季服務業的成長情況。看起來修復工作似乎會加快腳步。我不知道，就像 MODS 上的競爭情況一樣，但如果你在維護方面保持穩定，那麼你應該會看到服務收入在第四季度加速成長，對吧，從 6% 成長到接近 7%？

Yeah. Steve, for the fourth quarter, we expect services to be around 6%. And you rightly said repair is going to continue accelerating. We expect repair to be 10% or above which, by the way, is the growth we had last year in Q4. So this demonstrates that repair is back on track and kind of normalize.

是的。史蒂夫，我們預計第四季服務業成長率約為 6%。你說得對，維修工作將會繼續加速進行。我們預計維修率將達到 10% 或更高，順便說一句，這與我們去年第四季的成長率相同。這表示修復工作已經重回正軌，並逐漸恢復正常。

On the other side, MODS is going to be 10% versus 14% in Q3, reason for that is the calendarization of the bonds execution in China. Last year, bond projects that are the subsidized projects were very concentrated in Q4. China grew in Q4 more than 100% revenues there. This year is more level loaded between Q3 and Q4. So it's going to be 6% for the quarter.

另一方面，MODS 將從第三季的 14% 降至 10%，原因是中國債券發行的日曆化安排。去年，作為補貼項目的債券項目非常集中在第四季。中國市場第四季營收成長超過100%。今年第三季和第四季之間的工作量較為均衡。所以本季將是6%。

Got it. And then just one last nitpick. But if I do -- you said new equipment was going to be down 150 basis points. I guess, was that -- was that a fourth quarter comment or an annual comment?

知道了。最後，還有最後一點小瑕疵。但如果我這樣做——你說過新設備的價格會下降 150 個基點。我想問的是，那是第四季的報告還是年報？

No. An annual comment. What I said is that new equipment margin is going to be 130 basis points down versus prior year.

不。年度評論。我之前說過，新設備的利潤率將比前一年下降 130 個基點。

30 or 50?

30還是50？

130.

130.

Okay, great. Okay. Okay, that makes more sense. Okay. Got it. Okay. Just making sure I had the numbers right. Thank you so much.

好的，太好了。好的。好的，這樣就說得通了。好的。知道了。好的。我只是想確認一下數字是否正確。太感謝了。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

阿米特·梅赫羅特拉，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, operator, everybody. I just wanted to ask about Service margins and maybe structurally as we think beyond the fourth quarter? Obviously, it was nice to see the expansion of the third quarter. We're up 40 bps year-to-date. Is kind of that 50 basis point expansion algorithm still structurally right? I'm just thinking about, obviously, the net impact of higher MOD mix in revenue that seems to be accelerating in '26 given the order growth.

謝謝接線員，謝謝大家。我只是想問一下服務利潤率的情況，以及從結構上看，當我們考慮第四季度以後的情況時會是什麼情況？顯然，看到第三季實現擴張是件好事。今年迄今為止，我們上漲了 40 個基點。那種 50 個基點的擴展演算法在結構上仍然正確嗎？我只是在思考，很明顯，更高的MOD組合對收入的淨影響，鑑於訂單增長，這種情況似乎在2026年加速發展。

You're obviously making a lot of investments to -- that maybe Service debit to density, if I'm thinking about that correctly, to drive retention higher over time. I assume that's a little bit of a headwind. I'm just trying to understand, as we look beyond '25, like are those net headwinds to that margin expansion algorithm in service?

顯然，你們投入了大量資金——如果我理解正確的話，這可能意味著服務密度方面的投入，目的是隨著時間的推移提高用戶留存率。我估計這有點逆風。我只是想了解，展望 2025 年以後，那些因素是否會對利潤率擴張演算法的實施構成淨阻力？

Yeah. So we are very pleased with the margin expansion in service in Q3. Was 70 basis points, 25.5% margin, the highest margin rate in service we have had [since then]. The reason for this strength is essentially very good performance in volumes, both repair and modernization ramping up, volumes drive productivity, drives absorption. Also MODS ramping up in principle is a headwind in margin rate, but we also see mod margin rates improving sequentially.

是的。因此，我們對第三季服務業務利潤率的提升非常滿意。利潤率為70個基點，即25.5%，這是我們服務業有史以來最高的利潤率。[自此]。這種優勢的根本原因在於銷售表現非常出色，維修和現代化改造都在加速進行，銷量推動了生產力，進而推動了吸收。此外，MODS 的逐步增加原則上會對利潤率構成不利影響，但我們也看到 Mod 利潤率正在逐週改善。

We have good line of sight to reach 10% margin rate for MOD in the midterm. And we see this sequentially happening quarter after quarter. And last but not least, on repair, we also have the flow-through of a better price. So we see the rate of repair improving because of the price increase we executed in Q2. So with all of this, we expect full year margin for service around 25%, which is going to be 40 basis points up.

我們很有希望在中期實現 MOD 10% 的利潤率。而且我們看到這種情況每季都在依序發生。最後但同樣重要的是，在維修方面，我們也能享受到更優惠的價格。因此，由於我們在第二季實施了漲價，維修率有所提高。綜上所述，我們預計全年服務利潤率約為 25%，比上年同期成長 40 個基點。

And going forward, we are going to be laser-focused on growing service contribution in dollar basis. And we have very favorable tailwinds for that. So one is the volume growth, we have price and we have productivity, from a rate perspective, MODS will be slightly a headwind. And we are also going to calibrate investments in order to continue growing top line. But the focus is going to be service contribution growth in dollar basis.

展望未來，我們將全力以赴提高服務貢獻的美元金額。而我們在這方面擁有非常有利的順風。因此，一方面是銷售成長，另一方面是價格和生產力，從利率角度來看，MODS 將略微帶來不利影響。我們也將調整投資策略，以持續提升營收。但重點將是以美元計算的服務貢獻成長。

Yeah, Amit, it's Judy. I would also tell you every quarter since spin, so 22 quarters, this is our 23rd, we have increased services adjusted operating profit dollars. And as Cristina said, it's going to be those dollars versus sustained margin rates at the levels we've shown now going on six years. Those dollars will contribute in terms of profit dollars and they'll contribute in terms of cash as we grow the portfolio.

是的，阿米特，我是茱蒂。我還要告訴大家，自公司成立以來，每季（也就是 22 個季度，今年是第 23 個季度）我們的服務調整後營業利潤都有成長。正如克里斯蒂娜所說，關鍵在於這些美元能否與過去六年來我們所看到的持續高利潤率相抗衡。隨著我們投資組合的成長，這些資金將轉化為利潤和現金流。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And just a quick follow-up on China. You mentioned pricing was still weak in China, but some of the data that we look at kind of assumes, or shows that it's finding a floor. I don't want to get too cute with the data, but when you look at the month-to-month trends, it feels like it's finding a floor. Is that appropriate or accurate? If you can just comment on what's happening on the pricing side in China in real time?

知道了。好的。那很有幫助。謝謝。最後再簡單補充一下關於中國的情況。你提到中國的價格仍然疲軟，但我們看到的一些數據表明，價格正在觸底。我不想對數據做太多花招，但從每月的趨勢來看，感覺它似乎找到了一個底部。這樣說是否恰當準確？您能否就中國當前的定價狀況發表即時評論？

Yeah. Real time, we are seeing stabilization in the second half, and it's what we predicted in January. That we thought the first half would still see a fairly significant decline, but we're seeing that sequential improvement in China in the new equipment market. And so we are leading in the infrastructure segment. We're leading in the high-rise segment in China.

是的。即時數據顯示，下半年市場趨於穩定，這與我們一月份的預測一致。我們原本以為上半年仍會出現相當大的下滑，但我們看到中國新設備市場出現了持續改善的趨勢。因此，我們在基礎設施領域處於領先地位。我們在中國高層建築領域處於領先地位。

And we are making sure that the units that we bring into our portfolio are actually -- that we win in new equipment will be a higher conversion probability for us into the service portfolio. As we look at our China business as a whole, China, just like last quarter, represents 12% of our global revenue, and it's now similarly 21% of our new equipment revenue for the quarter.

我們正在確保我們引入產品組合的設備實際上是——我們在新設備上贏得的訂單，對於我們來說，轉化為服務產品組合的機率會更高。從整體來看，中國市場與我們上個季度一樣，占我們全球收入的 12%，並且在本季度新設備收入中也佔了 21%。

Our Service business now in China is 40% of our business in China. And so this 40% would equate to a few -- quite a few years ago, 15%. So we have had this focus on conversions, on new equipment driving our Service flywheel, and China has done a great job to now make us a 60-40 business, new equipment to Service in terms of revenue.

目前，我們在中國提供的服務業務占我們在中國業務的40%。因此，這 40% 相當於幾年前的 15%。因此，我們一直專注於轉型，專注於用新設備推動我們的服務發展，而中國在這方面做得非常出色，現在我們的業務收入佔比已經從新設備增長到服務增長，達到 60/40。

And that Service business in China is going to continue to grow between portfolio growth, which will drive maintenance, and repair and modernization growth, which in China, they tend to modernize at the 15-year point.

中國的服務業務將繼續成長，這得益於業務組合的成長，這將推動維護、維修和現代化改造的成長，而中國的現代化改造週期通常為 15 年。

We have all indications that this bond modernization stimulus will continue into 2026. And as part of the 15th five year planum, some of our interpretation of what's happening there is there's a focus on quality and digital versus involution. That we believe that the MOD bond will continue potentially after 2026 as well. It may look a little different in terms of how much stimulus the government contributes versus the consumer, but we are making sure that we are optimized in bond and in regular modernization in China.

種種跡象表明，這項債券現代化刺激措施將持續到2026年。作為第 15 個五年計劃的一部分，我們對那裡正在發生的事情的一些解讀是，重點是品質和數位化，而不是倒退。我們認為國防部債券在 2026 年後可能會繼續發行。政府和消費者在刺激經濟方面的投入比例可能略有不同，但我們正在確保在中國的債券發行和常規現代化過程中實現最佳效果。

Right. Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

正確的。好的。非常感謝。非常感謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. Judy, you mentioned it's going to take time to get the retention rate back to where it was. And I think you specifically said you have to rebuild some customer trust. I guess, can you just maybe talk a little bit about why that trust has deteriorated over the last 12, or maybe it's been longer than that? Any color there would be helpful.

謝謝。朱迪，你提到要讓客戶留存率恢復到之前的水平需要時間。而且我認為你特別提到過，你需要重建一些客戶的信任。我想，您能否稍微談談為什麼這種信任在過去 12 年，或更長時間逐漸惡化？任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yeah. Thanks, Chris. And it's -- listen, this is something that we own. This is mainly about operational execution versus these customers going somewhere else just for price. I want to be clear about that. And the good news is it's something we own and we can control and we can address.

是的。謝謝你，克里斯。聽著，這是我們擁有的東西。這主要關乎營運執行，而不是客戶僅僅因為價格而選擇其他供應商。我想明確這一點。好消息是，這是我們自己擁有、可以控制、可以解決的事情。

But we've gone through some changes in personnel. As you can imagine as we went through our uplift program. And some of those were customer facing, although most of those were back office. We know that we can become more accurate in everything from invoicing to that.

但我們的人員配置發生了一些變化。正如你所能想的，當我們進行提升計劃時。其中一些是面向客戶的，但大多數是後台辦公的。我們知道，從開票到其他所有方面，我們都可以做得更準確。

And we've now focused on having a GBS partner to help us do that. So we're taking actions. We're adding mechanics. Cristina said, we've added pretty comparable numbers of our field professionals this year. And I have to thank our field professionals for the work they do and how they represent our company every day. Because they are the heart and soul of this company.

我們現在專注於尋找全球業務服務 (GBS) 合作夥伴來幫助我們實現這一目標。所以我們正在採取行動。我們正在添加機制。克里斯蒂娜說：“今年我們增加了相當數量的現場專業人員。”我還要感謝我們的第一線專業人員，感謝他們所做的工作以及他們每天如何代表我們公司。因為他們是這家公司的核心和靈魂。

So we've added more where perhaps we had gotten to some ratios where we weren't able to deliver the outstanding service that we should and we commit to. So we're making sure we have better coverage. Some of that is an investment. We think that investment is worthwhile because of our Service flywheel, and we're going to continue to do that in all parts of the globe. But especially in our high-value lifetime value countries where we understand really the value of every service contract and every unit in our portfolio.

因此，我們增加了人手，以彌補先前某些比例上的不足，避免無法提供我們應該且承諾的卓越服務。所以我們要確保提供更好的覆蓋範圍。其中一部分是投資。我們認為這項投資是值得的，因為我們的服務具有良性循環效應，我們將繼續在全球各地進行這項投資。但尤其是在我們高價值終身價值的國家，我們真正了解每份服務合約和我們產品組合中每個單元的價值。

Thank you. I really appreciate that. If we -- I guess, to follow up, is a lower retention rate have an impact on the rate of margin expansion in the Service business? I would imagine that retention is very good incremental business.

謝謝。我非常感謝。如果—我想接著問—較低的客戶留存率是否會對服務業務的利潤率擴張速度產生影響？我認為客戶留存是一個非常好的增量業務。

And now if you guys need to go out in the world and win more new work from someone else, would that be -- maybe lower incremental margin because there's more costs associated with winning new business rather than retaining business you already have? Thank you.

如果你們需要走出去，從其他人那裡贏得更多的新業務，那麼——利潤率是否會降低，因為贏得新業務的成本比留住現有業務的成本更高？謝謝。

Chris, the best business for us is when we convert a new equipment customer into our portfolio to start. And then depending where you are in the world, maybe one to four years later or more, we want to retain them with another Service contract.

克里斯，對我們來說，最好的生意就是先把新設備客戶轉換成我們的客戶群。然後，根據您所在的地區，可能一到四年或更長時間後，我們希望透過另一份服務合約來留住他們。

Even though during that period, we've got inflationary adjustments, we've got price adjustments and we're servicing the customer. So you are absolutely accurate that, that's -- those are the customers we want to retain because of the contribution margin that they drive. When we lose them and replace them with what we call a recapture, and we share the recapture rates, we'll share those as well in fourth quarter.

即使在那段時間裡，我們進行了通貨膨脹調整，進行了價格調整，但我們仍然在為客戶提供服務。所以您說得完全正確，這些正是我們想要留住的客戶，因為他們能帶來可觀的利潤。當我們失去這些資源，並用我們稱為「重新獲取」的資源來取代它們時，如果我們分享重新獲取率，我們也會在第四季度分享這些數據。

They're strong, but obviously, to recapture from someone else, you have to take it away from them. We don't always just do that with price, though, which is your margin comment of why that would be lower. It is inherently lower, but we add functionality like Otis ONE. And we add other value differentiators and we bring them back also on a road to modernization, and a path there. So for us, the long-term value of that makes sense, but there is some margin headwinds by that loss of retention? Absolutely.

它們很強大，但顯然，要從別人手中奪回，你必須把它從他們手中奪走。不過，我們並不總是只在價格上這樣做，這就是你所說的利潤率較低的原因。它的固有成本較低，但我們增加了像 Otis ONE 這樣的功能。我們也會加入其他價值差異化因素，並將它們帶回現代化之路，以及通往現代化的道路。所以對我們來說，從長遠來看，這很有價值，但客戶留存率的下降會帶來一些利潤率的不利影響？絕對地。

Thank you, Judy. Really appreciate that.

謝謝你，朱迪。真的很感激。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of tie-ups from me since we've gotten through a lot of questions on the call. I guess maybe first, if we look at 4Q EPS, I think typically, you see like about a mid-single-digit decline. If I look back into your history, post spin you're embedding something more like 1% this quarter. So just can we understand what's maybe a little bit better this year than what you've seen in the past?

是的。謝謝。早安.由於我們在電話會議中已經討論了很多問題，我這裡只補充幾個要點。我想首先，如果我們看一下第四季度的每股收益，我認為通常情況下，你會看到大約中等個位數的下降。如果我回顧一下你的歷史記錄，在宣傳之後，你本季的嵌入率大概只有 1%。所以，我們能否了解一下，今年有哪些方面比往年略有改善？

Hi, Nicole, yeah, so on EPS growth, we are planning $0.11 of growth in Q4 versus $0.09 in Q3. This is essentially coming from operating profit. So operating profit performance will improve because of new equipment decline of sales moderating as we have seen in Q3. So it's continuing the trend we saw in Q3. And on the Service side is the acceleration of repair, plus also ongoing margin expansion.

嗨，妮可，是的，關於每股收益增長，我們計劃在第四季度增長 0.11 美元，而第三季度為 0.09 美元。這主要來自營業利潤。因此，由於新設備銷售下滑的趨勢有所放緩（正如我們在第三季度看到的那樣），營業利潤表現將會改善。所以，這延續了我們在第三季看到的趨勢。服務方面，維修速度加快，利潤率持續擴大。

Although Q4 is typically a lower margin rate quarter from a seasonality perspective, both on new equipment and service, and we are considering this seasonality. But we have very good line of sight to deliver this EPS growth because essentially, as I said before, is continuing the trend of what we have executed in Q3.

儘管從季節性角度來看，第四季度通常是新設備和服務利潤率較低的季度，我們也考慮了這種季節性因素。但我們很有希望實現每股盈餘成長，因為正如我之前所說，這本質上是延續了我們在第三季所採取的策略。

Thank you, Cristina. That's super helpful. And then on the buyback, you guys have basically completed your $800 million commitment for the year. Should we assume that you're done? Or is there room to maybe execute more buybacks if you see the opportunity in the fourth quarter?

謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。這非常有幫助。至於股票回購，你們基本上已經完成了今年 8 億美元的投資承諾。我們可以認為你已經完成了嗎？或者，如果您在第四季看到機會，是否有空間進行更多股票回購？

Yeah. In terms of capital allocation, Nicole, we are we are sticking with our app capital allocation model in general, which includes beyond dividends and buybacks also include some M&A activity. Our M&A activity through the third quarter is up more than most years. We've already invested a little over $100 million in M&A as we went through the third quarter. So we've been looking at all different cash usage.

是的。妮可，就資本配置而言，我們總體上堅持我們的應用程式資本配置模型，除了分紅和回購之外，還包括一些併購活動。第三季我們的併購活動比往年同期成長更多。在第三季度，我們已經在併購方面投入了略超過 1 億美元。所以我們一直在研究各種不同的現金使用情況。

Again, these bolt-on M&As really give us that addition -- they give us additional maintenance. They give us additional mechanics, they give us additional density, and they are very -- they are accretive, if not in year one by year two. So they make sense for us. And now that more have become available, we've been using cash deployment to do that. So to answer your question specifically, we are -- we believe we are through.

再次強調，這些附加的併購確實為我們帶來了額外的好處——它們為我們提供了額外的維護。它們為我們提供了額外的機制，它們為我們提供了額外的密度，而且它們非常——它們是累積性的，即使不是在第一年，到第二年也會如此。所以這對我們來說是合理的。現在有了更多可用的資金，我們一直在利用現金部署來實現這一目標。所以具體回答你的問題，我們——我們相信我們已經結束了。

We still have authority from our Board, obviously, in terms of the capacity to do more. But we were opportunistic. Unfortunately, our stock price dropped fairly significantly after 2Q earnings, and we were opportunistic then to buy more shares back.

顯然，就能力而言，我們仍然擁有董事會的授權，可以做更多的事情。但我們當時是投機取巧的。不幸的是，第二季財報發布後，我們的股價大幅下跌，所以我們抓住機會回購了更多股票。

Thank you, Judy. That was really helpful. I'll pass it on.

謝謝你，朱迪。這真的很有幫助。我會轉達的。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. Just wanted to start with the free cash flow because I guess you've this trend in Q3 and recent years where the adjusted operating margins rise year-on-year, but the free cash flow margin falls. So just wanted an update on -- do you think that can turn around anytime soon? And maybe clarify a couple of things on the free cash, specifically. One would be around how do we see the burden from cash restructuring, changing from here? And also wondered how the rise in modernization affects the free cash flow dynamics of the business, if at all?

您好，早安。我想先從自由現金流說起，因為我注意到第三季和近年來出現了一種趨勢，即調整後的營業利潤率逐年上升，但自由現金流利潤率卻下降。所以，我只是想了解一下最新情況——你認為這種情況近期內會有所改善嗎？或許還需要具體澄清一些關於免費現金的事情。其中一個問題是，我們如何看待現金重組所帶來的負擔，以及這種負擔從現在開始會發生怎樣的變化？此外，我還想知道現代化進程的加快會對企業的自由現金流動態產生怎樣的影響（如果有的話）？

Yeah. So Julian, on cash flow, Q3 was a sequential improvement versus Q2. We delivered $337 million. That was $100 million better than Q2. And in terms of conversion rate, it was around 81%. This is much below the conversion rate we have historically had, and we are convinced that our business model should be at 100% conversion rate.

是的。所以朱利安，就現金流而言，第三季比第二季有所改善。我們完成了3.37億美元的交付。這比第二季多了1億美元。轉換率約為 81%。這遠低於我們以往的轉換率，我們堅信我們的商業模式應該達到 100% 的轉換率。

The reason for this is the working capital build out related to the change of the business mix. So year-to-date, our new equipment sales have declined $300 million, versus Service growing $340 million. And as you know, new equipment has a more favorable working capital compared to Service. But all of this is just temporary, and we are confident that as new equipment stabilizes, and Service continues growing, we are going to come back to the regular levels of 100% conversion rate.

原因是業務組合變化導致的營運資金增加。今年迄今為止，我們的新設備銷售額下降了 3 億美元，而服務收入則增加了 3.4 億美元。如您所知，與服務相比，新設備的營運資金更為有利。但這一切都只是暫時的，我們相信隨著新設備的穩定運作和服務的持續成長，我們將恢復到 100% 的正常轉換率水準。

In fact, for Q4, we are planning cash flow to be around $700 million. That's the same amount of cash we generated in Q4 last year. And we have positive signals that gives us the confidence that we are going to deliver.

事實上，我們預計第四季的現金流約為 7 億美元。這與我們去年第四季產生的現金流金額相同。我們收到了正面的訊號，這讓我們有信心實現目標。

One is the fact that the orders in the equipment turned positive in Q3 were plus 4%. And as you well know, we have advances coming from these bookings. You also mentioned modernization, and you are totally right. Modernization working capital is pretty similar to new equipment, is at the end an installation project. And we also get advances from those projects.

一是設備訂單在第三季轉正，成長了 4%。如您所知，我們從這些預訂中獲得預付款。您還提到了現代化，您說得完全正確。現代化營運資金與新設備非常相似，歸根究底都是一個安裝項目。我們也能從這些項目中獲得預付款。

And last but not least, new equipment sales are moderating. And there is a component of the transition of our collections activity to a third party. We have recently outsourced this process to a third-party partner. We have seen a performance not at great levels so far, but we see improving going forward, and we are confident that with all of this conversion rate in the year is going to be above 90%. And by 2026, we should be back to 100%.

最後，新設備銷售正在放緩。此外，我們也將部分收款業務轉移給了第三方。我們最近已將這項流程外包給了第三方合作夥伴。到目前為止，我們的業績表現並不理想，但我們相信未來會越來越好，我們有信心，在所有這些努力下，今年的轉換率將超過 90%。到 2026 年，我們應該可以恢復到 100%。

That's great. Thanks, Cristina. And then just my quick follow-up would be on the maintenance portfolio in the service business. I think based on your comments, it looks like China will comprise maybe half, or almost half of your maintenance portfolio unit expansion in 2025. So just wondered if there was any update around the Service pricing and Service margin dynamics within China, please?

那太棒了。謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。然後，我只想快速跟進一下服務業務中的維護組合。根據你的評論，我認為到 2025 年，中國可能會占到你維護組合單元擴張的一半，或幾乎一半。請問中國境內的服務定價和服務利潤率方面是否有任何最新進展？

Yeah. I don't think you will see China approach half of the portfolio growth next year. But we'll get back to you on that over time. We're very pleased with the growth we've had. But again, with this focus on the growth now being able to convert to service, we're being a little more disciplined as we go, so I would say that.

是的。我認為明年中國市場的投資組合成長不會達到全球的一半。但我們會擇日回覆您。我們對取得的成長非常滿意。但是，鑑於我們現在專注於將成長轉化為服務，我們在前進的過程中也更加自律，所以我想說的是…

In terms of service pricing, again, with that discipline comes a little bit more focused on which tier cities we're going to serve. So we're not trying to cover the broader spectrum of countries. And if you look at where a lot of the property sequential improvement is, Tier 1 cities are doing the best and the further out you go to Tier 5 and beyond, they're not.

在服務定價方面，同樣，這種紀律也讓我們更加關注我們將服務哪些層級的城市。所以我們並不打算涵蓋所有國家。如果你觀察一下房產等級提升的順序，你會發現一線城市表現最好，而越往五線及以下城市發展，情況就越差。

So we do have agents and distributors who can cover that if they choose. But we are -- as part of the China transformation, we've merged our two Service brands to make us more efficient and productive so that our service contribution in China continues to improve.

所以，我們確實有代理商和經銷商可以承擔這部分工作，如果他們願意的話。但是，作為中國轉型的一部分，我們合併了兩個服務品牌，以提高效率和生產力，從而不斷提升我們在中國的服務貢獻。

That will happen through density, and it will happen through us with our two brands now being able to service, and have shared routes, or even improved coverage, we think we're going to see that improvement come through in '26 as well.

這將透過提高密度來實現，也將透過我們兩個品牌能夠提供服務、共享路線甚至改善覆蓋範圍來實現，我們認為在 2026 年也會看到這種改善。

That's great. Thank you.

那太棒了。謝謝。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn to Judy Marks for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我請茱蒂·馬克斯作總結發言。

Thank you, Sarah. As you've seen, our Service flywheel is performing. This performance momentum is across the Board in both segments and all regions. With the growing service portfolio approaching 2.5 million units and an accelerating modernization business, we're confident, we'll continue to deliver attractive and sustainable shareholder value for the remainder of this year and beyond. Thank you for joining us today. Stay safe and well.

謝謝你，莎拉。正如您所看到的，我們的服務飛輪正在發揮作用。這種業績成長勢頭在兩個細分市場和所有地區都是全面實現的。隨著服務組合不斷增長，接近 250 萬台設備，以及現代化業務的加速發展，我們有信心在今年剩餘時間和未來繼續為股東創造具有吸引力的、可持續的價值。感謝您今天加入我們。保持安全和健康。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。