奧的斯電梯 (OTIS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Otis's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded (technical difficulty) -- is being carried live on the internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis's website at www.otis.com.

早安，歡迎參加奧的斯 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。此通話正在錄音（技術故障）－正在網路上直播並錄音以供重播。示範資料可從 Otis 網站 www.otis.com 下載。

I'll now turn it over to Rob Quartaro, Vice President of Investor relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Rob Quartaro。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Welcome to Otis' fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President; and Christina Mendez, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding restructuring and significant non-recurring items. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

謝謝你，莎拉。歡迎參加奧的斯 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、執行長兼總裁朱迪‧馬克斯 (Judy Marks)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜·門德斯（Christina Mendez）。請注意，除非另有說明，本公司將討論不包括重組和重大非經常性項目的持續經營績效。這些措施的協調可以在網路廣播的附錄中找到。

We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis's SEC filings including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q provide details on important factors that could ease -- could cause actual results to differ materially.

我們也提醒聽眾，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。奧的斯向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（包括我們的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表季度報告）詳細說明了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Judy.

現在我想把電話轉給朱迪​​。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We hope that everyone listening is safe and well. We finished 2024 with solid results both for the fourth quarter and full year, and we enter 2025 with momentum and confidence in our service driven business model.

謝謝你，羅布。大家早安、下午好、晚上好。感謝您加入我們。我們希望每個聽眾都平安健康。我們在 2024 年第四季和全年都取得了穩健的業績，我們將帶著對服務驅動型業務模式的強勁動力和信心邁入 2025 年。

We achieved these results through the dedication of our colleagues around the globe. So I want to express my gratitude for their hard work, execution of our strategy, commitment to our customers and demonstration of our Otis absolutes.

我們取得這些成果得益於全球同事的奉獻。因此，我要對他們的辛勤工作、我們策略的執行、對客戶的承諾以及對奧的斯絕對品質的展示表示感謝。

Starting on slide 3. We achieved organic sales growth of 1.9% in the quarter driven by continued strong performance in service which grew 7.8% with great performance in both maintenance and repair and modernization.

從投影片 3 開始。本季我們實現了 1.9% 的有機銷售額成長，這得益於服務業務持續強勁成長，成長了 7.8%，維護、維修和現代化方面均有出色表現。

We grew our maintenance portfolio by more than 4% for the third consecutive year, and our portfolio now stands at approximately 2.4 million units leading our industry and validating the impact and contribution of our service flywheel.

我們的維護組合連續第三年增長超過 4％，目前我們的維護組合已達到約 240 萬台，領先於行業並驗證了我們的服務飛輪的影響和貢獻。

Modernization was a highlight in 2024, we ended the year with our backlog of 13% at constant currency while modernization orders grew 18% in the quarter which sets us up well for the year ahead. We generated $682 million of adjusted free cash flow in the quarter, which is our highest quarterly result since spin. Cash generation was driven by excellent collections and a reduction in our networking capital.

現代化是 2024 年的一大亮點，以固定匯率計算，我們在年底的積壓訂單量為 13%，而現代化訂單在本季度增長了 18%，這為我們來年奠定了良好的基礎。我們在本季產生了 6.82 億美元的調整後自由現金流，這是我們分拆以來的最高季度業績。現金產生的動力來自於優異的收款績效和網路資本的減少。

Additionally, we continued the strong execution of our customer centric uplift program, enabling us to now increase the expected annual run rate savings to $200 million by the second half of 2025.

此外，我們繼續強力執行以客戶為中心的提升計劃，這使得我們到 2025 年下半年能夠將預期年度運行率節省額提高到 2 億美元。

In addition, earlier this month, we announced a transformation of our China business to better position ourselves for growth in service and modernization in the current and evolving China market environment. We are well underway in transitioning our revenue and profit streams in China from our new equipment to our service and MOD flywheel.

此外，本月初，我們宣布了中國業務轉型，以便在當前不斷變化的中國市場環境中更好地實現服務成長和現代化。我們正順利地將我們在中國的收入和利潤來源從新設備轉向我們的服務和 MOD 飛輪。

We also made meaningful progress on ESG initiatives that are aligned with our business strategy. In the fourth quarter, we received a gold rating for the third year in a row from EcoVadis. Many of our customers around the world take ESG strongly into consideration as they make procurement decisions, and this recognition demonstrates that we continue to pursue and execute on sustainable strategies that drive value for our stakeholders.

我們也在符合業務策略的 ESG 措施方面取得了重大進展。第四季度，我們連續第三年獲得EcoVadis的金牌評級。我們遍佈全球的許多客戶在製定採購決策時都會專注於 ESG 因素，這項認可表明我們將繼續追求和執行永續策略，為我們的利害關係人創造價值。

In 2024 we delivered organic sales growth for the fourth consecutive year since spin and 50 basis points of overall adjusted operating profit margin expansion. We have expanded company margin by 30 basis points or more every year since spin.

2024 年，我們自分拆以來連續第四年實現有機銷售額成長，整體調整後營業利潤率擴大 50 個基點。自分拆以來，我們每年都將公司利潤率提高 30 個基點或更多。

Despite the new equipment macro headwinds our industry faced in 2024, we maintained our new equipment share at 20%. We grew adjusted EPS 8.2%, and finished the year strong with approximately $1.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2024 allowing us to return $1.6 billion of cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

儘管我們的產業在 2024 年面臨新設備宏觀阻力，但我們仍將新設備份額維持在 20%。我們的調整後每股收益成長了 8.2%，並以 2024 年約 16 億美元的調整後自由現金流強勁收官，使我們能夠透過股息和股票回購向股東返還 16 億美元現金。

We believe our shareholder driven management strategy is sustainable. Turning to our orders performance on slide 4. New equipment orders declined 4% in the quarter due to continued challenging market conditions primarily in China, excluding China, new equipment orders increased approximately 11%.

我們相信，我們的股東驅動的管理策略是可持續的。轉向投影片 4 上的訂單表現。由於市場環境持續嚴峻，尤其是中國市場，本季新設備訂單下降 4%，除中國外，新設備訂單成長約 11%。

The Americas delivered a strong second half of the year growing orders high-teens in the last six months including mid-teens growth in Q4 with strong performance in Latin America. Asia Pacific delivered greater than 20% growth with solid results across the region.

美洲地區在下半年表現強勁，過去六個月訂單量維持高成長，其中第四季訂單量成長達到中成長，拉丁美洲表現強勁。亞太地區實現了超過 20% 的成長率，整個地區都取得了穩健的業績。

Orders declined by high single digits in EMEA in the quarter including weakness in Western Europe but finished the full year up 3.7%. In China orders declined more than 20% in the quarter due to continued soft demand.

本季度，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的訂單量下降了個位數，其中包括西歐地區的疲軟，但全年訂單量增加了 3.7%。由於需求持續疲軟，中國本季訂單下降了 20% 以上。

Our new equipment backlog at constant currency was down 4% versus the prior year, although excluding China, it was up low single digits. Modernization orders bounce back in Q4 as expected with, as I noted 18% growth. Growth was widespread including China up greater than 20%. We ended the year with modernization backlog up 13% versus the prior year at constant currency.

以固定匯率計算，我們的新設備積壓訂單比去年下降了 4％，但不包括中國，則增加了個位數。正如我所料，現代化訂單在第四季度反彈，成長了 18%。成長現象普遍存在，中國市場成長超過 20%。以固定匯率計算，我們今年的現代化積壓訂單比去年增加了 13%。

New equipment and modernization orders combined grew in the quarter with backlog down one point as we continue to drive a shift in mix from new equipment to modernization in China and other mature markets where there's a higher concentration of aged units in need of modernization and refurbishment.

本季度，新設備和現代化訂單合計增長，積壓訂單下降了一個點，因為我們繼續推動中國和其他成熟市場從新設備向現代化設備的轉變，這些市場中需要現代化和翻新的老舊設備集中度較高。

Our service portfolio grew 4.2% and now stands as noted at approximately 2.4 million units, strengthen our number one position globally. All regions contributed positively, with mid-teens growth in China, mid-single digit growth in Asia Pacific and low single digit growth in both the Americas and EMEA globally. Our recaptures and cancellations were approximately net neutral for the third consecutive year, leaving net churn at zero and driving growth through conversions.

我們的服務組合成長了4.2%，目前已達到約240萬台，鞏固了我們在全球第一的地位。所有地區都做出了積極貢獻，其中中國地區實現了中等個位數增長，亞太地區實現了中等個位數增長，美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區均實現了低個位數增長。我們的重新捕獲和取消連續第三年大致保持淨中性，淨流失率為零並透過轉換推動成長。

As of year-end 2024 we have approximately 1 million connected units globally. We continue to innovate to adapt to changing market demands and to better serve our customers while driving growth and profitability across our business. For example, we continued to roll out our digitally connected elevator platforms, launching gen three across Asia Pacific where smart cities are being increasingly developed in major urban areas.

截至 2024 年底，我們在全球擁有約 100 萬個連網裝置。我們不斷創新，以適應不斷變化的市場需求，更好地服務我們的客戶，同時推動整個業務的成長和獲利能力。例如，我們繼續推出數位互聯電梯平台，在亞太地區推出第三代電梯平台，而智慧城市正在主要城市地區日益發展。

In addition, we launched the enhanced public escalator globally, a flagship infrastructure product that provides new features that are critical to our customers' needs.

此外，我們在全球推出了增強型公共自動扶梯，這是一款旗艦基礎設施產品，提供對客戶需求至關重要的新功能。

We also rolled out new global modernization packages to help our customers proactively plan to upgrade their units to the latest safety standards and to provide a more comfortable experience for their passengers. With 8 million of the 22 million global installed unit aging and ready to be upgraded, this is a significant opportunity for our modernization business which is a growth lever for our service portfolio.

我們還推出了新的全球現代化套件，幫助我們的客戶主動規劃將其設備升級到最新的安全標準，並為乘客提供更舒適的體驗。全球已安裝的2200萬台機組中，已有800萬台機組老化並需要升級，這對我們的現代化業務來說是一個重要機遇，也是我們服務組合的成長槓桿。

Overall, R&D and strategic investments remained relatively stable at about 1.4% of sales for the year, reflecting our ability to invest and innovate efficiently. We continue to win many exciting projects based on our innovation, ability to deliver and the trust our customers have in us. For example, in Mexico Otis will install 142 units at the Mexican Social Security Institute Facilities.

整體而言，研發和策略投資保持相對穩定，約佔全年銷售額的 1.4%，反映了我們高效的投資和創新能力。憑藉我們的創新、交付能力和客戶對我們的信任，我們不斷贏得許多令人興奮的項目。例如，在墨西哥，奧的斯將在墨西哥社會安全局設施安裝 142 台設備。

Our elevators will help support the agency's mission by providing safe and reliable vertical transportation at 41 public clinics and hospitals across the country and upon completion will be added to our maintenance portfolio. Joining the nearly 600 existing IMSS elevators already serviced by Otis. In Hyderabad, India, Otis will install 21 units in the twilight towers, a set of luxury high rise residential apartments.

我們的電梯將為全國 41 家公立診所和醫院提供安全可靠的垂直運輸，幫助支持該機構的使命，竣工後將添加到我們的維護組合中。加入奧的斯已提供服務的近 600 台現有 IMSS 電梯。在印度海得拉巴，奧的斯將在一組豪華高層住宅公寓「暮光之城」中安裝 21 台機組。

These towers which stand up to 60 floors tall will be Otis India's first use of the Otis compass 360 destination Management System in a residential project. In China, Otis will modernize more than 120 units across two infrastructure projects at the Xi'an Airport in northwest China, we will upgrade 22 moving walkways and 58 elevators. And in Wuhan, we will modernize 46 escalators across 8 stations on the city's metro line 2.

這些塔樓高達 60 層，是奧的斯印度公司首次在住宅項目中使用奧的斯指南針 360 目的地管理系統。在中國，奧的斯將對位於中國西北部的西安機場的兩個基礎設施項目中的 120 多台設備進行現代化升級，包括升級 22 條自動人行道和 58 部電梯。在武漢，我們將對該市地鐵 2 號線 8 個車站的 46 部自動扶梯進行現代化升級。

Finally in the UK Otis will install 17 elevators and one platform lift at the Ellison Institute of Technology's Oxford Interdisciplinary Research and Development Campus that will incorporate more than 30,000 square meters of research laboratory space, and oncology, and preventive care, clinic, and educational and gathering spaces.

最後，在英國，奧的斯將在艾里森理工學院牛津跨學科研究與開發園區安裝17 部電梯和1 部平台升降機，該園區將包含超過30,000 平方米的研究實驗室空間、腫瘤學和預防保健、診所、教育和聚集空間。

Turning to our fourth quarter results on slide 5. Otis delivered net sales of $3.7 billion with organic sales of 1.9%. Adjusted operating profit excluding a $5 million foreign exchange headwind was up $22 million driven by the service segment.

查看投影片 5 的第四季業績。奧的斯淨銷售額為 37 億美元，有機銷售額為 1.9%。受服務部門推動，扣除 500 萬美元外匯不利因素後，調整後營業利潤上漲 2,200 萬美元。

Adjusted EPS grew approximately 7% or $0.06 in the quarter with strong operational performance and the benefit of a lower share count.

由於營運業績強勁且股份數量減少，本季調整後每股收益成長約 7% 或 0.06 美元。

With that, I'll turn it over to Christina to walk through our 2024 results in more detail.

接下來，我將把話題交給克里斯蒂娜，讓她更詳細地介紹我們 2024 年的表現。

Thank you, Judy. Starting with segment sales performance on slide 6. Total organic sales growth in the quarter was driven by service, which was up 7.8%. New Equipment organic sales were down 6.8% with Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific growing mid-single digits on the back of a strong backlog execution. Within China, the backlog heading into the quarter was down mid-teens.

謝謝你，朱迪。從投影片 6 上的分部銷售業績開始。本季總有機銷售額的成長主要得益於服務業務，增幅達 7.8%。新設備有機銷售額下降 6.8%，其中美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區由於積壓訂單執行強勁而實現中等個位數成長。在中國，本季的積壓訂單量下降了百分之十幾。

This, together with a strict credit control in shipments led to China new equipment sales declining greater than 20%. This decline was partially offset by growth in each of the other regions with notable strength in India, Spain and Latin America. Service organic sales were up 7.8%, which is our best-performing quarter of the year with mid-single digit or greater growth in all regions and all lines of business.

再加上嚴格的出貨信貸控制，導致中國新設備銷售量下降超過 20%。其他地區的成長部分抵消了這一下降，其中印度、西班牙和拉丁美洲的增幅尤為顯著。服務有機銷售額成長 7.8%，這是我們今年表現最好的一個季度，所有地區和所有業務線均實現了中等個位數或更高的成長。

Maintenance and repair sales were up 5.6% with maintenance benefiting from our continued efforts in driving portfolio growth, together with disciplined pricing strategy. Pricing was up 4 points, excluding the impact of mix and churn.

維護和維修銷售成長 5.6%，其中維護業務受益於我們持續努力推動產品組合成長，並結合嚴格的定價策略。除去混合和客戶流失的影響，定價上漲了 4 點。

Repair volumes continued growing approximately 10%, and modernization sales further accelerated to 18% growth in the quarter with growth across all regions, including more than 20% growth in Asia Pacific, each quarter this year.

維修量持續成長約 10%，現代化銷售額本季進一步加速至 18% 的成長，所有地區均實現成長，其中亞太地區今年每季的成長率都超過 20%。

Turning to segment operating profit performance on slide 7. New equipment operating profit of $64 million was down $24 million at constant currency, driven by the headwinds of lower volume and regional and product mix, that were partially offset by productivity, including the benefits from uplift and lower commodity costs.

轉向第 7 頁的分部營業利潤表現。新設備營業利潤為6,400 萬美元，以固定匯率計算下降了2,400 萬美元，原因在於銷量下降、區域和產品組合下降等不利因素，但生產力提高（包括商品成本提升和降低帶來的好處）部分抵消了這些影響。

Operating profit margins came in largely as expected at 4.7%. For the full year, new equipment operating profit was down $44 million at constant currency, and operating margin finished at 6.1%, 50 basis points lower versus the prior year, with the softness in China being partially mitigated through productivity, pricing and commodity tailwinds.

營業利益率基本符合預期，為4.7%。全年來看，以固定匯率計算，新設備營業利潤下降4,400 萬美元，營業利潤率最終為6.1%，較上年下降50 個基點，而中國市場的疲軟因素因生產率、定價和大宗商品的順風而得到部分緩解。

Service operating profit of $569 million increased $54 million at constant currency with higher volume, favorable pricing and productivity, including the benefits from uplift more than offsetting annual wage inflation.

服務營運利潤為 5.69 億美元，以固定匯率計算增加了 5,400 萬美元，得益於銷量增加、價格優惠和生產力提高，其中包括提升帶來的好處，這些好處超過了抵消年度工資通膨的影響。

Operating profit margins expanded 50 basis points to 24.5% in the quarter and 60 basis points to 24.6% in the full year. Service operating profit in 2024 accounted for 93% of our overall operating profit compared to 89% last year.

本季營業利益率擴大 50 個基點至 24.5%，全年擴大 60 個基點至 24.6%。2024 年服務營運利潤占我們整體營運利潤的 93%，而去年比例為 89%。

Moving to the full-year 2024 adjusted EPS bridge on slide 8. Adjusted EPS in the year grew $0.29 or 8.2%, including $0.22 operational growth at constant currency, (inaudible) by our continued solid service performance.

轉到第 8 張投影片上的 2024 年全年調整後每股收益橋。由於我們持續穩健的服務表現，本年度調整後每股收益成長 0.29 美元，即 8.2%，其中以固定匯率計算的營業成長 0.22 美元（聽不清楚）。

Below the line, our adjusted effective tax rate declined by more than 1 point in 2024 to 24.8%, driven by continued focus on optimizing the effective tax rate, reduced tax rates and NCI, together with a lower share count more than offset headwinds from increased interest expense.

整體而言，我們的調整後有效稅率在2024 年下降了1 個百分點以上，至24.8%，這得益於我們繼續專注於優化有效稅率、降低稅率和NCI，再加上較低的股份數量，這些都足以抵銷公司利潤增加帶來的不利影響。

Additionally, we finished the year with our highest quarterly cash flow (inaudible) delivering the expected improvement in working capital in Q4, mainly driven by excellent collections. Overall, solid performance throughout 2024 with a strong finish to the year.

此外，我們以最高的季度現金流（聽不清楚）結束了這一年度，並在第四季度實現了營運資本的預期改善，這主要得益於出色的收款業績。總體而言，2024 年全年表現穩健，並以強勁勢頭結束。

We continue to deliver value to shareholders on the back of sustained execution of our service strategy. Despite challenging new equipment market conditions in China, we have delivered high single-digit EPS growth as anticipated, proving the resilience of our service-driven business model.

我們持續執行服務策略，不斷為股東創造價值。儘管中國新設備市場環境充滿挑戰，我們仍如預期實現了高個位數的每股盈餘成長，證明了我們服務驅動業務模式的韌性。

I will now turn it back to Judy to discuss our 2025 outlook.

現在我將話題轉回給朱迪，討論我們 2025 年的展望。

Thanks Christina. Starting on slide 9 with the market outlook. For new equipment in the Americas, the market was up mid-single digits in 2024 with mid-single digit growth in Latin America and low single digit growth in North America.

謝謝克里斯蒂娜。從第 9 頁開始介紹市場前景。對於美洲的新設備，2024 年市場將實現中等個位數成長，其中拉丁美洲將實現中等個位數成長，北美將實現低個位數成長。

We expect that the market improvement that started in the second half of 2024, will continue and anticipate that in 2025 the America's market overall will be up low single digits. In EMEA, the market was down mid-single digits in 2024 primarily driven by Western and Central Europe.

我們預計，2024 年下半年開始的市場改善將持續下去，並預計 2025 年美國市場整體將實現個位數成長。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，市場在 2024 年出現中等個位數下滑，主因是西歐和中歐。

Although we anticipate that these two markets will not recover in 2025, the decline is expected to moderate compared to 2024. In total, the overall EMEA market is expected to increase low single digits. In Asia, the market was down about 10% in 2024 with solid growth in Asia Pacific up low single digits partially offsetting the continued decline in China, which we estimate was down approximately 15%.

儘管我們預計這兩個市場在 2025 年不會復甦，但預計與 2024 年相比，跌幅將會有所緩和。總體而言，預計整個 EMEA 市場將實現低個位數成長。在亞洲，2024 年市場下滑了約 10%，亞太地區實現了低個位數的穩健成長，部分抵消了中國持續下滑的影響（我們估計中國市場下滑了約 15%）。

We've seen an approximately 35% reduction since the height of the China new equipment market in 2021. Although the situation remains fluid, we expect the China market to decline approximately 10% in 2025. We believe the China market will stabilize late in 2025 resetting to this new level.

自 2021 年中國新設備市場高峰以來，我們看到了約 35% 的下降。儘管情況仍不明朗，但我們預計中國市場在 2025 年將下降約 10%。我們相信中國市場將在 2025 年末穩定下來並重新回到這個新水平。

Asia Pacific is expected to be up mid-single digits with India and Southeast Asia driving the growth while Korea is expected to be down again and Japan is expected to be flat. Overall in 2025, we expect the global new equipment market will be down mid-single digits in units with the growth in the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA more than offset by the decline in China.

預計亞太地區將出現中等個位數成長，其中印度和東南亞將推動成長，而韓國預計將再次下降，日本預計將持平。總體而言，我們預計 2025 年全球新設備市場單位數量將下降中位數個位數，其中美洲、亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的成長將被中國的下滑所抵消。

This represents a sequential improvement in new equipment market trends in 2025 compared to 2024. In service, the global install base continues to grow mid-single digits reaching approximately 22 million units at the end of 2024.

這意味著 2025 年新設備市場趨勢與 2024 年相比將持續改善。在服務方面，全球安裝基數持續以中位數個位數成長，到 2024 年底將達到約 2,200 萬台。

As we turn to 2025 we anticipate continued mid-single digit growth driven by growth in all regions. Taken together, we expect the global install base to reach approximately 23 million units at year end. Turning to our financial outlook for 2025. We expect net sales of $14.1 billion to $14.4 billion growing 2% to 4% organically and down 1% to up 1% in actual currency.

展望 2025 年，我們預計在所有地區的推動下，該產業將繼續保持中等個位數成長。整體而言，我們預計年底全球安裝基數將達到約 2,300 萬台。談談我們對 2025 年的財務展望。我們預計淨銷售額將達到 141 億美元至 144 億美元，有機成長 2% 至 4%，以實際匯率計算下降 1% 至成長 1%。

Adjusted operating profit is expected to be between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion, up $55 million to $105 million in actual currency or $120 million to $150 million excluding foreign exchange headwinds. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $4 to $4.10 up 4% to 7% or more than 20% versus the prior year at the midpoint of the guide.

調整後的營業利潤預計在 24 億美元至 25 億美元之間，若以實際匯率計算則上漲 5,500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元，若剔除外匯不利因素則上漲 1.2 億美元至 1.5 億美元。我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 4 美元至 4.10 美元之間，較上年同期的指導中位數成長 4% 至 7% 或 20% 以上。

Finally, we expect adjusted free cash flow of approximately $1.6 billion. We will continue to execute on our disciplined capital allocation strategy and expect to repurchase approximately $800 million in shares in 2025, grow our dividend payout and pursue approximately $100 million of bolt on M&A.

最後，我們預計調整後的自由現金流約為 16 億美元。我們將繼續執行嚴謹的資本配置策略，預計在 2025 年回購約 8 億美元的股票，增加股息，並進行約 1 億美元的附加併購。

Turning to slide 10. As we've discussed over the last several years, the market in China has shifted dramatically after over 20 years as a high growth market, it's now resetting as a strong but mature market.

翻到第 10 張投影片。正如我們在過去幾年所討論的那樣，中國市場在經歷了二十多年的高成長之後發生了巨大的轉變，現在正重塑為一個強大而成熟的市場。

We foresaw this and have been working to evolve our business model shifting from an emphasis on new equipment sales to deriving value from the lifetime of a customer. With our margin of creative emphasis on maintenance, repair and modernization sales.

我們預見了這一點，並一直致力於改進我們的商業模式，從注重新設備銷售轉向從客戶生命週期中獲取價值。我們以創造性的重點關注維護、維修和現代化銷售。

The construction boom in China delivered an installed base that is approximately 40% of total units installed globally today. That's a very large and important market. Each unit requires regular maintenance, repair and overtime modernization. The many units built over the past 15 to 25 years are entering the prime age for modernization. The modernization opportunity is large and growing.

中國的建築熱潮帶來的安裝基數約佔當今全球總安裝量的 40%。這是一個非常龐大且重要的市場。每個單位都需要定期維護、修理和加班現代化。過去15至25年間建造的許多部隊正進入現代化的黃金時期。現代化機會巨大且不斷增長。

China now presents a tremendous opportunity to drive modernization orders, expand our maintenance portfolio and deliver significant growth in our service driven business model. We are transforming our China operations in both service and new equipment to deliver on our China service flywheel strategy.

中國現在為推動現代化訂單、擴大我們的維護組合以及實現服務驅動型業務模式的顯著增長提供了巨大的機會。我們正在改變中國業務的服務和新設備，以實現我們的中國服務飛輪策略。

We are investing in our service business to profitably grow our portfolio through conversions and recaptures through our efforts, we are targeting low-teens annual performance growth portfolio growth with a focus on quality and margin expansion.

我們正在投資我們的服務業務，透過努力轉換和重新奪回，實現投資組合的盈利性增長，我們的目標是實現低十幾歲的年度業績增長，重點是質量和利潤率的擴大。

Our service revenue is now approximately one-third of our total China revenue. To win an increasing share of modernization, we're engaging our new equipment agent and distributor network to accelerate growth.

我們的服務收入目前約占我們中國總收入的三分之一。為了贏得越來越多的現代化份額，我們正在利用新的設備代理商和經銷商網路來加速成長。

We see a multi-year opportunity and we're targeting greater than 20% annual modernization order growth. Within new equipment sales, we're adapting for the more mature, more mature market environment as well after growing at a mid-teens, CAGR for more than 20 years, the new equipment market peaked at approximately 650,000 units in 2021.

我們看到了多年的機遇，我們的目標是每年現代化訂單成長20%以上。在新設備銷售方面，我們正在適應更成熟、更成熟的市場環境，在以中等水平的複合年增長率增長了 20 多年之後，新設備市場在 2021 年達到峰值，約為 650,000 台。

Since then, industry, new equipment units have declined approximately 35% to 420,000 units in 2024. We believe it will stabilize in late 25 between 350,000 and 400,000 units. We currently operate through two brands in China which have largely operated independently.

此後，業界新設備數量下降了約 35%，到 2024 年降至 42 萬台。我們認為25年底銷售量將穩定在35萬至40萬台之間。我們目前在中國透過兩個基本上獨立經營的品牌開展業務。

The structure has served us well historically and enabled us to grow our new equipment business over 700% from 2000 to 2021. To deliver our flywheel strategy, we are consolidating our operations from manufacturing to sales in addition to rationalizing and simplifying our product portfolio.

這種結構在歷史上對我們起到了很好的作用，使我們的新設備業務在 2000 年至 2021 年間增長了 700% 以上。為了實現我們的飛輪策略，除了合理化和簡化我們的產品組合之外，我們還在整合從製造到銷售的業務。

This will drive additional efficiencies separate from uplift of approximately $20 million in cost savings in 2025 and exiting the year with a $30 million annual run rate. Taken together all these initiatives which have been underway for a while position Otis to grow revenue and margin China which will continue to be a large and important service market.

這將推動額外的效率，除了在 2025 年節省約 2000 萬美元的成本並在年底實現 3000 萬美元的年運行率之外。綜合考慮這些已持續實施一段時間的舉措，奧的斯將能夠增加中國市場的收入和利潤，而中國市場仍將是一個龐大而重要的服務市場。

Turning to slide 11, we've had tremendous success with our uplift program and have unlocked approximately $70 million of savings in 2024. We now expect to deliver a run rate savings of $200 million by the second half of 2025.

轉到第 11 張投影片，我們的提升計畫取得了巨大成功，並在 2024 年實現了約 7,000 萬美元的節省。我們目前預計到 2025 年下半年將實現 2 億美元的營運成本節省。

Taken together with our China Transformation, we are targeting in your savings of approximately $90 million in 2025, and exiting the year with a target run rate savings of $230 million.

結合我們的中國轉型，我們的目標是在 2025 年為您節省約 9,000 萬美元，並在年底實現 2.3 億美元的目標運行率節省。

With that, let me hand it back to Cristina to outline the 2025 segment outlook in more detail.

說完這些，讓我把話題交還給克里斯蒂娜，讓她更詳細地概述 2025 年的細分市場前景。

Thank you, Judy. Taking a more detailed look at our outlook and starting with sales on slide 12. Total organic sales are expected to be up 2% to 4%, driven by continued strong performance in our service segment. We expect new equipment organic sales to be down 1% to 4%, driven by a decline in China due to continued soft demand, although this represents a sequential improvement versus 2025. Total Asia is expected to be down low to mid-single digits with a strong growth in Asia Pacific, helping to partially offset the decline in China.

謝謝你，朱迪。更詳細地了解我們的前景，從第 12 張投影片上的銷售開始。受服務部門持續強勁表現的推動，預計總有機銷售額將成長 2% 至 4%。我們預計，由於中國市場需求持續疲軟導致新設備有機銷售額下降 1% 至 4%，但與 2025 年相比有所改善。預計整個亞洲地區的銷售額將下降低至中等個位數，但亞太地區的強勁成長將有助於部分抵消中國市場的下滑。

We foresee the Americas to be down low single digits as we work through a lower backlog, impacted by market pressures in the first half of last year.

受去年上半年市場壓力的影響，由於積壓訂單減少，我們預期美洲地區的訂單量將出現個位數下降。

EMEA is anticipated to be up low to mid-single digits. We anticipate continued strong performance in service with overall organic sales up 6% to 7%, in line with our growth in 2024. This includes maintenance and repair that are expected to grow mid-single digits on the back of sustained portfolio growth over 4% and modernization up high single digits, as we continue to execute on our strong backlog from year end.

預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區 (EMEA) 的銷售額將出現低至中等個位數的成長。我們預計服務業務將繼續表現強勁，整體有機銷售額將成長 6% 至 7%，與我們 2024 年的成長保持一致。這包括維護和維修，預計在投資組合持續增長 4% 以上和現代化增長高個位數的背景下，維護和維修將實現中等個位數增長，因為我們將繼續執行年底以來的強勁積壓訂單。

Turning to slide 13. We have delivered profit growth every year since spin, expanding operating profit margin by 220 basis points on the back of consistently strong performance in service. We remain focused on growing our industry-leading maintenance portfolio, executing on our strong modernization backlog and increasing productivity, including benefits of uplift and the China transformation. With our proven service strategy, we will continue setting the industry benchmark in terms of profitability.

翻到第 13 張投影片。自分拆以來，我們每年都會獲利成長，在服務業務持續強勁表現的帶動下，營業利潤率擴大了 220 個基點。我們將繼續專注於擴大我們行業領先的維護組合、執行我們強大的現代化積壓任務並提高生產力，包括提升和中國轉型帶來的好處。憑藉我們行之有效的服務策略，我們將繼續在獲利能力方面樹立行業標竿。

In 2025, we expect to expand margins in line with 2024, a sustained and solid performance in service is anticipated to offset headwinds in the new equipment business, including pricing, volume and mix. Commodities were tailwinds in 2024, however, we estimate the impact to be approximately flat in 2025.

2025 年，我們預期利潤率將與 2024 年持平，持續穩健的服務表現有望抵銷新設備業務（包括定價、數量和組合）的不利因素。2024 年大宗商品呈現順風態勢，但我們估計 2025 年其影響將基本持平。

Meanwhile, productivity, including the benefits from uplift and our China transformation is expected to be a positive contributor. All in all, we foresee operating margin expanding 60 basis points in 2025, delivering $120 million to $150 million growth at constant currency.

同時，生產力，包括提升和中國轉型帶來的好處，預計將發揮積極的推動作用。整體而言，我們預計 2025 年營業利潤率將擴大 60 個基點，以固定匯率計算成長 1.2 億至 1.5 億美元。

Moving to the 2025 EPS rates on slide 14. Our guidance for adjusted EPS is $4 to $4.10, with a strong operational performance, driving approximately $0.20 of growth, and along with the benefits from a lower share count will mitigate around $0.10 on foreign exchange and $0.04 in interest headwinds.

轉到投影片 14 上的 2025 年每股收益率。我們對調整後每股盈餘的預期為4 至4.10 美元，強勁的營運業績將推動約0.20 美元的成長，再加上較低股數帶來的好處，將緩解約0.10 美元的外匯影響和0.04 美元的利率阻力。

Note that our guidance is based on current spot for an exchange rates. Excluding this impact, the midpoint of our guide would represent a high single-digit adjusted EPS growth year over year, in line with our midterm guidance.

請注意，我們的指導是基於目前的現貨匯率。除去此影響，我們預期的中點將代表調整後每股盈餘年增一個高個位數，與我們的中期預期一致。

We expect EPS in the first and second quarters to be relatively flat with a stronger growth in the second half of the year, driven by execution of our modernization backlog, realization of cost savings from our uplift and China transformation initiatives and improving trends in China and Americas in equipment. Maintenance and repair are expected to be level loaded through the year, reflecting the strength and resiliency of our service business.

我們預計第一季和第二季的每股盈餘將相對持平，下半年將實現更強勁的成長，這得益於我們現代化積壓工作的執行、提升和中國轉型計劃帶來的成本節約以及中國和美洲的設備。預計全年維護和維修將保持水平，這反映了我們服務業務的實力和彈性。

Turning to slide 15. Our outlook for 2025 reflects another year of consistent performance and strategic execution led by our resilient service business, and our uplift and China transformation programs. We project another year of strong profit growth with the midpoint of our adjusted operating profit guidance up 6% at constant currency, driven by approximately 60 basis points of margin expansion.

翻到第 15 張投影片。我們對 2025 年的展望反映了我們在彈性服務業務以及提升和中國轉型計劃的帶動下又一年的穩定表現和戰略執行。我們預計，今年的利潤將再創佳績，以固定匯率計算，調整後的營業利潤預期中位數將上漲 6%，這主要得益於利潤率提高約 60 個基點。

Our adjusted free cash flow forecast is approximately $1.6 billion, which will support $800 million of sales repurchases and a 40% of dividend payout. We remain committed to serving our customers delivering growth through our service-driven business model and generating long-term shareholder value.

我們調整後的自由現金流預測約為 16 億美元，將支持 8 億美元的銷售回購和 40% 的股利支付。我們始終致力於服務客戶，透過服務驅動的業務模式實現成長並創造長期股東價值。

With that, I will ask Sarah to please open the line for questions. Thank you.

接下來，我請莎拉開通問答專線。謝謝。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員指令）

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you expand on the China kind of cost initiatives? If we think about that is roughly a $2 billion revenue pool in China, maybe two-thirds of it, that's more equipment oriented.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。能否詳細說明中國的成本措施？如果我們想想，中國的收入池大約是 20 億美元，其中大概三分之二更多的是設備導向。

It would seem like that the targeted savings are around 2% of that new equipment revenue and just trying to get a little bit of context around the opportunity here and with the upward sort of revisions that we've seen in uplift, trying to think about, that $30 million and where it could go over time.

看起來目標節省是新設備收入的 2% 左右，只是想了解這裡的機會，以及我們在提升方面看到的向上修正，試著思考一下，這3,000 萬美元以及隨著時間的推移它將如何去利用。

Yeah, let me start, Joe. Thanks for asking the question. Listen, I think we have and Sally and the team have really focused on really resetting our business. We have seen structural change in China and we are structurally changing Otis to pivot and to continue our journey to move to becoming more of a service oriented business and it's become more of a mature market.

是的，讓我開始吧，喬。感謝您提問。聽著，我想我們和莎莉以及團隊已經真正專注於重塑我們的業務。我們已經看到了中國的結構性變化，我們正在從結構上改變奧的斯，使其轉型並繼續我們的旅程，使其成為一個更以服務為導向的企業，它已經成為一個更成熟的市場。

So we've made this change, we announced it the first week of January and we're working through it. And our best estimate right now is what you see in terms of run rate as we exit the year. We're looking at every opportunity possible.

因此我們做出了這一改變，並在一月的第一周宣布了這一改變，我們正在努力實現它。我們目前最好的估計就是我們在年底時看到的運行率。我們正在尋找每一個可能的機會。

But we also want to ensure since China is 40% of the install base, we ended 2024 with our portfolio again up mid-teens for the thirteen straight quarter, but we ended our portfolio with 435,000 units, which is more than twice what we started at spin. So we've been on this journey, but that's still if you assume that -- that's for China, that's still 4% to 5% market share.

但我們也想確保，由於中國佔安裝基數的40%，到2024 年結束時，我們的投資組合連續第十三個季度再次保持中高位增長，但我們的投資組合結束時的單位數量為435,000 台，是我們開始時的兩倍多旋轉。所以我們一直在走這條路，但如果你假設——對於中國來說，這仍然是 4% 到 5% 的市佔率。

So we want to make sure that we're investing and we keep our mechanics and we keep all of the key skills we need to succeed in service and now in the growing MOD business. Our MOD orders as you saw, we were pretty strong for fourth quarter, we're really proud of them.

因此，我們要確保我們正在投資，留住我們的機械師，並保留在服務和現在不斷發展的國防部業務中取得成功所需的所有關鍵技能。正如您所看到的，我們的 MOD 訂單在第四季度表現相當強勁，我們對此感到非常自豪。

China MOD orders doubled in the quarter and that we think is a combination of focus and also a combination of this -- the stimulus that was introduced for repur -- refurbishment where we estimate that we secured about 8% to 9% market share on that refurbishment first tranche. So again, for us, it's about tuning the organization stripping out excess overlapping costs and now creating a very market driven service and MOD business.

本季度，中國 MOD 訂單翻了一番，我們認為這是重點關注和刺激措施相結合的結果。因此，對我們來說，這再次關係到調整組織，剝離多餘的重疊成本，並創造一個高度以市場為導向的服務和 MOD 業務。

Yes. And Judy, I can complement with the financials. So the $30 million run rate are expected to be primarily in the new equipment side. So new equipment in China in 2025 from a revenue standpoint, it's going to moderate because we expect a stabilization of the market towards the end of the year, but the margins are going to be under pressure because we see the lower backlog flowing through plus additionally, the pricing from the backlog also flowing through, you may remember that in '24, pricing in China was down 10%.

是的。朱迪，我可以用財務方面的內容來補充。因此，預計 3,000 萬美元的運行率將主要用於新設備方面。因此，從收入的角度來看，2025 年中國新設備的成長將會放緩，因為我們預計市場將在年底前趨於穩定，但利潤率將面臨壓力，因為我們看到積壓訂單減少，此外，積壓訂單的定價也隨之而來，您可能還記得，在24 年，中國的定價下降了10%。

So with this transformation program, we are going to rightsize the organization, specifically in new equipment in order to adapt to the new market size. We are targeting $20 million in year savings that will be approximately low to mid-teens reduction of indirect cost and 30% reduction in real estate.

因此，透過這個轉型計劃，我們將調整組織規模，特別是在新設備方面，以適應新的市場規模。我們的目標是每年節省 2,000 萬美元，其中間接成本將減少約 15% 至 20%，房地產成本將減少 30%。

Now the program is not only about rightsizing the equipment. It's also about investing into service, because here are the opportunities and or most. So Services as of 2024, one-third of the revenues of China. We have a small market share in service, and we want to grow and we are going to grow. And this is on the back of consolidating the teams, the two brands will be under the same umbrella.

現在該計劃不僅涉及設備適當規模。這也與投資服務有關，因為這裡有機會，或最多。因此，截至 2024 年，服務業將佔中國收入的三分之一。我們在服務業中所佔的市場份額很小，但我們想要成長，而且我們也會成長。在團隊整合之後，兩個品牌將歸屬於同一品牌旗下。

This would allow us to increase coveraging service. Second is consolidating also portfolio and rationalizing and being able to differentiate value and to address different customer needs and last but not least, consolidating the agent and distribution networks that this would also help to accelerate modernization growth, as Judy has said, more than 20% targeted on an annual basis.

這將使我們能夠擴大覆蓋服務。第二是整合投資組合，合理化，能夠區分價值，滿足不同客戶的需求。超過20%每年都設定目標。

That's all helpful detail. And then just as it relates to the fourth quarter and the service margin there and sequentially down from the third quarter looks like it may have come in a little shy of internal expectations and so any color on that service margin and then, how you think about that moving forward.

這些都是有用的細節。然後，就像它與第四季度和服務利潤率有關一樣，與第三季度相比，它似乎可能略低於內部預期，因此服務利潤率有什麼影響？ 然後，您如何看待繼續前進。

Yeah, let, let me start. Joe, what probably isn't obvious to end everyone is, is we've made a focused investment in our service flywheel. We talk about it a lot but the linchpin of that is having qualified mechanics and field professionals available throughout the globe.

是的，讓我開始吧。喬，可能大家不太清楚的是，我們對服務飛輪進行了重點投資。我們對此進行過多次討論，但關鍵是要在全球範圍內擁有合格的機械師和現場專業人員。

In 2024, we added 2000 field mechanics and field professionals which is a skilled craft to our prior 42,000 population. So we increased 5% our direct field workforce because this is the life safety business. Many of them come in as apprentices, they partner with experienced mechanics and the learning curve takes time and we may have probably underestimated the productivity of bringing on those 2000 to drive service, especially in the fourth quarter.

2024 年，我們將在先前的 42,000 名員工基礎上增加 2,000 名現場機械師和現場專業人員（這是一種熟練的技術）。因此，我們將直接現場工作人員增加了 5％，因為這是生命安全業務。他們中的許多人都是以學徒的身份加入的，他們與經驗豐富的機械師合作，學習過程需要時間，我們可能低估了讓這 2000 名員工參與駕駛服務的生產力，尤其是在第四季度。

But we had the cost of them. But for me, it's an absolutely critical investment in our future. So that we don't have a labor fall, we've got trained mechanics and we can grow both service and modernization. So again, we're up to 44,000 field professionals who every day are delivering for us, but a lot are have just joined us and it's a worthwhile investment.

但我們已經付出了代價。但對我來說，這是對我們未來絕對重要的投資。為了不出現勞動力下降的情況，我們擁有訓練有素的機械師，並且能夠同時發展服務和現代化。再說一遍，我們有 44,000 名現場專業人員每天為我們提供服務，但很多人都剛加入我們，這是一項值得的投資。

And on the sequential comparison, Joe. So you are right, it's a decline, but this is a seasonal effect that you may see, and when you look back, it was even sharper in 2023. It's because of vacation and absorption. But compared to '23, our margin rating service grew 50 basis points in '24 versus 20 basis points in 2023.

關於連續比較，喬。所以你是對的，這是一種下降，但這是你可能會看到的季節性影響，當你回顧時，你會發現 2023 年的下降更為明顯。這是因為假期和吸收。但與23年相比，我們的保證金評級服務在24年增長了50個基點，而2023年增長了20個基點。

And this is despite of the acceleration we have had in mode, modernization has grown 18% in sales in Q4, much more than in the past and because of the good performance on the field and efficiencies, including uplift, we are able to grow faster in terms of margin rating service compared to 2023.

儘管我們在模式上取得了進展，但第四季度的銷售額增長了 18%，比過去高得多，而且由於現場的良好表現和效率，包括提升，我們能夠更快地增長與2023年相比，保證金評級服務方面。

Got it. Thanks very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Hi, thank you. Judy, you mentioned the edition in the field professionals and I'm a little bit curious if you have any thoughts on your decision process there. So what -- maybe what is your productivity trend on your existing base -- field professionals, does that sort of anticipate as we can see in the MODs I guess that you think you might grow above whatever that productivity, labor productivity rate would be, maybe you have an aging workforce to deal with until there's some replacement there just thinking about your decision process as you expand that workforce?

你好，謝謝。朱迪，你提到了該領域專業人士的版本，我有點好奇你對那裡的決策過程有什麼想法。那麼，也許您在現有基礎上的生產力趨勢是什麼？處理勞動力老化問題，直到找到替代者，在擴大勞動力時，你只是在思考你的決策過程嗎？

Yeah. No, thanks, Rob. I think we're seeing challenges across the construction market in general for workforce and for us, because this is such a skilled craft. We made the conscious decision to invest and that investment has occurred in many markets across the globe. So we want to be prepared. We know we're going to continue to grow our service portfolio, we've got modernization revenue in the outlook for '25 growing high, single, obviously, with the backlog, we'll try to do even better there and you can see that just picking up year over year.

是的。不，謝謝，羅布。我認為我們看到整個建築市場對於勞動力和我們自己都面臨挑戰，因為這是一門非常熟練的技術。我們有意識地做出了投資決定，而這項投資已在全球許多市場進行。所以我們要做好準備。我們知道我們將繼續擴大我們的服務組合，我們在 25 年的現代化收入前景中將保持高增長，顯然，隨著積壓訂單的增加，我們將努力做得更好，你可以看到這一數字逐年上升。

So for us, we want -- we wanted to get these apprentices in and even some of the skilled journeymen who come from other companies, so that we can first fulfill the immediate maintenance and repair requirements we have, our repair business is still up about 10% for the -- for another year. So, we have to, we no one wants there, their elevator or escalators down. We need that field workforce.

因此，對我們來說，我們希望——我們希望招募這些學徒，甚至一些來自其他公司的熟練工人，這樣我們就可以首先滿足我們當前的維護和維修需求，我們的維修業務仍然在增長10% 用於——再用一年。所以，我們必須這樣做，我們沒有人希望他們的電梯或自動扶梯故障。我們需要這樣的現場工作人員。

So for us, it's a worthwhile investment. Again, I think it did have an impact on margins in fourth on service margins in fourth quarter. But to me, that's a short term issue versus the long term capability to deliver. Again, we do have an aging workforce just like most industrials do. And we're up to 72,000 colleagues now 44,000 in our field, which if you do the math, it means we've obviously reduced the indirect head count, almost 1,000.

所以對我們來說，這是一項值得的投資。再次，我認為這確實對第四季度的服務利潤率產生了影響。但對我來說，這是一個短期問題，與長期交付能力無關。再一次，就像大多數工業企業一樣，我們的勞動力也正在老化。現在我們的同事人數已增至 72,000 人，其中專業員工人數為 44,000 人，如果你算一下，就會發現這意味著我們顯然減少了間接員工人數，幾乎減少了 1,000 人。

So I think we're heading in the right direction for next year, but more importantly for Otis's future because we need to be able to fulfill the needs of our customers in the markets we serve and in those markets, we need that workforce.

因此，我認為我們明年的方向是正確的，但對於奧的斯的未來來說更重要的是，因為我們需要能夠滿足我們服務的市場中客戶的需求，而在這些市場中，我們需要勞動力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

[Amit Verma], UBS.

[Amit Verma]，瑞銀。

Judy, I think the kind of new equipment market is the highest rent market for the company on the new equipment side, the market could get you there, but if you pivot maybe more proactively towards service. Can you just talk about the impact of new equipment margins structurally, I know you're taking out costs and to maybe offset some of that mix impact.

朱迪，我認為新設備市場是公司在新設備方面的最高租金市場，這個市場可以帶你到達那裡，但如果你轉向也許更積極地轉向服務。您能否從結構上談談新設備利潤率的影響，我知道您正在降低成本，也許是為了抵消部分組合影響。

But structurally, where do you expect the mix of that business to go as you kind of pivot more proactively service, and maybe just related to that, the China market has obviously been this moving target. Can you just give us a sense of what's behind or maybe what's giving you confidence that in 2025 in terms of that 350,000 to 400,000 market?

但是從結構上來說，當您更積極地轉向服務時，您預計該業務的組合會走向何方？您能否向我們介紹背後的情況，或者是什麼讓您對 2025 年 35 萬到 40 萬輛的市場充滿信心？

Yeah. No, thanks. I mean, so listen on China, as we wrapped the year ended up being 13% of total Otis revenue, which is where we kind of see -- we saw it going third and fourth quarter and that's all in. So total China revenue versus total Otis revenues is 13%. Traditionally, as I said, with the incredible CAGR we had in China, new equipment, it did become a very high volume business with high profitability.

是的。不，謝謝。我的意思是，聽聽中國的情況，我們在年底時發現，中國市場佔奧的斯總收入的13%，這是我們看到的——我們看到它在第三季度和第四季度達到峰值，這就是全部收入。因此，中國區總收入與奧的斯總收入比率為 13%。傳統上，正如我所說，憑藉我們在中國驚人的複合年增長率和新設備，它確實成為了一項產量非常大、盈利能力很強的業務。

It has become more challenging over the past three years as prices have become more competitive. But in a deflationary environment, our team has done an amazing job to get cost out, to get material productivity and to get installation productivity. What we want to do is take that same focus and that's why we're modularizing or making modernization packages.

由於價格競爭愈發激烈，過去三年來，挑戰也愈發嚴峻。但在通貨緊縮的環境下，我們的團隊在降低成本、提高材料生產率和提高安裝生產力方面做出了卓越的成績。我們想要做的是集中同樣的注意力，這就是我們進行模組化或製作現代化包的原因。

China gives us a unique opportunity in terms of both service and MOD to improve our profitability in China. First, as we grow our service portfolio, especially through recaptures, we build density in a very large country again, 435,000 units as we end the year, up again, mid-teens for the year, but we have -- we need the ability to continue to build density because as you see with Otis and as you saw on chart 13, it's that density that drives our service operating profit margin that has increased every year since actually, it's increased every 19 straight quarters since spin. So that's what we need to take to China.

中國為我們在服務和國防部方面提供了獨特的機會來提高我們在中國的獲利能力。首先，隨著我們擴大服務組合，特別是透過重新奪回，我們再次在一個非常大的國家建立密度，到年底時，我們擁有435,000 個單位，今年再次上升，達到15% 左右，但我們有——我們需要能力繼續提高密度，因為正如您在奧的斯和圖13 中看到的那樣，正是這種密度推動了我們的服務營業利潤率自分拆以來每年都在增加，實際上，自分拆以來，服務營業利潤率每19 個季度都會增加一次。所以這就是我們需要帶到中國的東西。

And we do that through a little different lens. As we came out of spin, we focused on growing our service portfolio, 1% wasn't acceptable. We're now at four plus, we have higher aspirations, but we have so much data available right now that we understand the value of each unit, we understand the quality contribution of each unit.

我們透過稍微不同的視角來做到這一點。當我們走出困境時，我們專注於擴大我們的服務組合，1% 是不可接受的。我們現在有四個以上，我們有更高的抱負，但是我們現在有如此多的數據，以至於我們了解每個單位的價值，我們了解每個單位的質量貢獻。

And so in China, explicitly, as we focus on conversions and specifically on recaptures, we're doing it as we've done other in other mature markets, placing it in a city or in a route where we can get that density and we don't have the same cost.

因此，在中國，我們專注於轉化，特別是重新捕獲，我們的做法就像我們在其他成熟市場所做的那樣，把它放在一個城市或一個路線上，在那裡我們可以獲得這樣的密度，我們成本不同。

That's going to help us make China service margins, which traditionally have been our lowest because of lack of density improve to at some point approximate mature markets. The modernization opportunity will come at scale and we've moved MOD margins -- this is the for the full year MOD margins globally exceeded new equipment margins, and we're going to continue as we said to get to at least double digit margins for modernization over the medium term.

這將有助於我們提高中國服務利潤率，由於密度不足，中國服務利潤率歷來最低，最終接近成熟市場。現代化機會將大規模出現，我們已經提高了MOD 利潤率——這是全年MOD 利潤率在全球範圍內超過新設備利潤率，我們將繼續像我們所說的那樣，至少實現兩位數的利潤率中期實現現代化。

Okay. That's very helpful and just one follow up for Cristina if I could. so. I think the expectation is MOD growth to be up high single digit organic. This year, I think orders were up, low double digits last year, they were up, high-teens in the fourth quarter.

好的。這非常有幫助，如果可以的話，我只想對克里斯蒂娜進行一次跟進。所以。我認為 MOD 的有機成長率預計達到高個位數。我認為，今年的訂單量有所增加，去年為兩位數的低位，而第四季度的訂單量則增加了十幾位。

Can you just talk about maybe the disconnect there and are is globally is MOD growth mix, I guess mix positive for service margins. Is it neutral? Can you just talk about the mix impact from that help growth?

您能否談談其中存在的脫節以及全球範圍內的 MOD 成長組合，我猜這種組合對服務利潤率是有利的。它是中性的嗎？您能談談這種幫助成長的混合影響嗎？

So on the guide, Amit, you are right. So I would say there is a little bit of conservatism in the guide that is based on we want to see the resources ramping up. And as we have mentioned, we -- in Q4, there was a good ramp-up but we need to continue in order to be able to execute on the very strong backlog. So this is an opportunity for the guide. We are guiding high single-digit versus 13% exiting backlog, and we can do more getting the resources.

因此，關於這個指南，阿米特，你是對的。因此，我想說，該指南中帶有一點保守主義，這是基於我們希望看到資源增加。正如我們所提到的，在第四季度，我們有了良好的成長，但我們需要繼續下去，以便能夠完成非常強勁的積壓訂單。所以這對導遊來說是一個機會。我們預計退出積壓訂單量將達到高個位數，而現有積壓訂單量為 13%，並且我們可以做更多的事情來獲取資源。

On the mix. So within service modernization has lower margin compared to the repair and maintenance, although modernization margins are increasing based on the standardization of supply chain and efficiencies on the field because of the standardization.

混合中。因此，與維修和保養相比，服務現代化的利潤率較低，儘管由於標準化，供應鏈的標準化和現場效率的提高，現代化的利潤率正在增加。

And you may recall that at the beginning of the year, modernization margins overpass new equipment, we continue that trend, and they continue being above and growing. So gradually, the margins will get better, but it's going to be a headwind in terms of margin rate in service. But overall, very positive dollars in terms of contribution.

您可能還記得，在年初，現代化利潤率超過了新設備利潤率，我們延續了這一趨勢，並且繼續保持領先和成長。因此，利潤率會逐漸好轉，但對於服務利潤率而言，這將是一個阻力。但總體而言，從貢獻來看，這是非常正面的。

Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝。非常感謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just want to follow up on that MOD question, obviously, improving MOD margins has been a big initiative. So, where do we expect more margins to be in '25 versus '24? And I know that they were running low, single digit.

謝謝。大家早安。我只是想跟進國防部的問題，顯然，提高國防部利潤率是一項重大舉措。那麼，我們預計25年的利潤率會比24年的高出多少呢？我知道他們的錢已經不多了，只有個位數。

I think they're on the track towards mid singles plus. And then just maybe talk about the cost savings that you've got coming through both the -- on both of the programs you've disclosed, the total impact in 2025. But just curious, where those lands between equipment services and perhaps corporate? Thanks.

我認為他們正走在中級單打以上的道路上。然後也許可以談談您透過揭露的兩個項目所節省的成本，以及 2025 年的整體影響。但只是好奇，設備服務和企業服務在哪裡？謝謝。

Yeah. So on MOD margins, as we said, we now four quarters in a row full year, we surpassed new equipment margins, Nigel, which so obviously higher than the new equipment annual margin for '24. So a little above mid-single heading towards high, which has been our objective and again, heading towards double digit and our teams responded well, again, all part of our strategy to not just drive MOD revenue but then have that MOD feedback into the portfolio. Cristina?

是的。因此，就 MOD 利潤率而言，正如我們所說，我們已經連續四個季度超過了新設備利潤率，Nigel，這顯然高於 24 年新設備的年度利潤率。因此，略高於中位數，朝著高位發展，這是我們的目標，再次朝著兩位數發展，我們的團隊反應良好，同樣，這都是我們策略的一部分，不僅要推動MOD 收入，還要讓MOD 回饋到資料夾。克里斯蒂娜？

Yeah. On the savings, so in 2025, we are expecting to generate $20 million in China coming from the transformation program. This is going to be all in the equipment and will help to compensate the headwinds that we see in the price from the backlog. And uplift will be -- we have raised the total program target, it's going to be $200 million now. We exited 2024 with $120 million run rate, and we expect around $70 million in [GR] savings in 2025.

是的。就節約而言，到 2025 年，我們預計透過轉型計畫在中國創造 2,000 萬美元的收入。這一切都將與設備有關，並將有助於彌補我們在積壓訂單中看到的價格阻力。並且提升幅度將是——我們已經提高了總體計劃目標，現在將達到 2 億美元。到 2024 年，我們的運行率為 1.2 億美元，預計 2025 年 [GR] 節省將達到 7,000 萬美元左右。

Approximately 65% of that will be in service, 35% remaining in the equipment with a very small piece in corporate. And when you look at our service growth in the guide is approximately $180 million with (inaudible) and out of that, you deduct $40 million coming from the uplift savings, you can see that there is still a very positive growth coming from operational performance.

其中約 65% 將投入使用，35% 留在設備中，只有極小部分留在公司。當您查看指南中的服務成長時，發現約為 1.8 億美元（聽不清楚），從中扣除來自提升節省的 4000 萬美元，您會發現營運績效仍然呈現非常積極的成長。

Okay, thanks Cristina. Maybe just as well if you just kind of talk about the $250 million of restructuring that I think is sort of the total bucket that's on page 26. Just want understand that's a big number. Just want to understand that, but maybe could you just maybe just expand on the service guides, the [24 5] exit rate in 4Q.

好的，謝謝克里斯蒂娜。也許你只是談論 2.5 億美元的重組，我認為這是第 26 頁的全部金額。只是想了解這是一個很大的數字。只是想了解這一點，但也許你能否擴展一下服務指南，即第四季度的 [24 5] 退出率。

We normally have richer margins in the second half of the year. Just wondering how we think about service margin, expansion in the first half of the year just because I think the comps are quite tough there.

通常來說，下半年我們的利潤會比較豐厚。我只是想知道我們如何看待服務利潤率和上半年的擴張，因為我認為那裡的競爭相當激烈。

Yeah. So with restructuring, we are guiding approximately $250 million. It's (inaudible) because we are finalizing the uplift program. So we will achieve the $200 million run rate by the end of 2025. Year-to-date, end of '24, we have spent approximately $140 million restructuring.

是的。因此，透過重組，我們預計資金規模約為 2.5 億美元。這是（聽不清楚）因為我們正在最終確定提升計劃。因此，到 2025 年底，我們將實現 2 億美元的營運率。截至目前，截止 24 年底，我們已花費約 1.4 億美元進行重組。

So the remaining up to the $300 million cost to achieve in the program are to be spent in 2025. And in addition to that, you have $40 million restructuring from the China transformation. So it's going to be a very intense year in terms of restructuring in order to end up the year in a very good position from our cost base with all of the costs we are going to move out.

因此，該計劃剩餘的 3 億美元成本將於 2025 年花完。除此之外，您還因中國轉型而進行了 4,000 萬美元的重組。因此，從重組的角度來看，今年將是十分緊張的一年，目的是使我們在今年結束時，在成本基礎上處於非常有利的地位，並實現我們將要轉移的所有成本。

And we think Nigel this aligns nicely. I've called this the year of transformation for Otis in '25. We've been in uplift. We've done the process definition. We've done the organization design we've implemented and announced and now we're making it happen across the globe in 2025 we're moving to our global business services activity as well.

我們認為 Nigel 的觀點非常吻合。我把 2025 年稱為奧的斯的轉型之年。我們一直處於提升狀態。我們已經完成了流程定義。我們已經完成了組織設計，並已實施和宣布，現在我們正在將其在 2025 年在全球範圍內實施，我們也將轉向全球商業服務活動。

So there's cost to be had, but we're going to go through this transformation and simultaneously deliver with excellence operationally, as you see, with the margin expansion driven off our service business, and following our strategy where we think that puts us is in a really stronger position for '26, when this is all run rate behind, we have the run rate benefit, but more importantly, we're focused on our customers and we've seen it's been a nice bounce back in North America actually, all of the Americas in terms of orders in our EMEA business, couldn't be more pleased.

因此，我們需要付出成本，但我們將進行轉型，同時在營運方面提供卓越的服務，正如你所看到的，我們的服務業務將帶來利潤的擴大，並遵循我們的策略，我們認為這將讓我們處於26 年，當這一切都被運行率所掩蓋時，我們將處於更強大的地位，我們有運行率優勢，但更重要的是，我們專注於我們的客戶，我們已經看到它在北美實際上出現了良好的反彈，就我們 EMEA 業務的訂單而言，整個美洲地區都感到非常高興。

We are outperforming the market even in Northern Europe, but we are outperforming the market, not just in orders but in our revenue and across the board, and our Asia Pacific business just had a fantastic 2024 in every metric possible.

我們的表現甚至優於北歐市場，但我們的表現優於市場，不僅在訂單方面，而且在收入和各個方面，我們的亞太業務在 2024 年的所有指標中都取得了出色的成績。

So as the markets come nicely as we kind of get to second half of '25 and '26, Otis is positioned, we've got the cost structure we want, we've got the customer centricity we want, we have the workforce we want, which is why we made that investment, we have the strategy to execute, and I really think it's setting up nicely for later '25 and '26.

因此，隨著市場進入 25 年和 26 年下半年，奧的斯定位正確，我們擁有我們想要的成本結構，我們擁有我們想要的客戶中心性，我們擁有我們想要的勞動力這是我們進行投資的原因，我們有執行的策略，我真的認為這為2025 年和2026 年後期做好了良好的準備。

Great. Thanks, Judy.

偉大的。謝謝，朱迪。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. Maybe first, just wanted to follow up. I think Cristina, you talked about flattish sort of EPS in the first half, and then a stronger second half. So just wanted to follow up on that. Is the driver there in the first half, kind of organic sales, flat to up slightly just because of the new equipment declines, and then operating margins up very slightly just because you have that new equipment margin decline being pretty steep. And then I guess FX is a bigger first half headwind than second half kind of maybe just flesh out that a little bit, please?

嗨，早安。也許首先，只是想跟進一下。我認為克里斯蒂娜談到了上半年每股收益持平，而下半年每股收益會更強勁。我只是想跟進一下這一點。上半年的驅動因素是有機銷售額持平或略有上升，僅僅是因為新設備的下降，而營業利潤率則略有上升，僅僅是因為新設備利潤率的下降相當嚴重。然後我想 FX 上半年的逆風會比下半年更大，也許可以稍微充實一下，好嗎？

Yeah. So yeah, it's broadly as you have described. So Service is going to be very level-loaded. Service will continue growing on the top line mid-single digit on the back of the portfolio growth plus modernization execution, and the margin expansion is also going to come gradually. On the other side, new equipment first half of the year is going to be challenged.

是的。是的，大致就像您所描述的那樣。因此服務將會非常水平化。在產品組合成長和現代化實施的推動下，服務業務將繼續以中等個位數成長，利潤率也將逐步提高。另一方面，上半年新設備將面臨挑戰。

You'll recall that it's not only the existing portfolio, we also have a tougher compare because, for example, Americas started increasing orders in the second half of the year. So it's going to be a period until we execute this lower backlog, and we also reflect the impact from price.

您會記得，這不僅是現有的產品組合，我們還有更嚴格的比較，因為例如，美洲在下半年開始增加訂單。因此，我們需要一段時間才能完成較低的積壓訂單，我們也會反映價格的影響。

And in the second half of the year, we expect the flow through of all of these transformation initiatives into margins. That's why EPS is broadly flat in the first half and a strong increase in the second half. And FX is also going to impact because of a tougher compare in the first half of the year.

我們預計，今年下半年所有這些轉型措施都將轉化為利潤。這就是為什麼 EPS 在上半年基本上持平，而下半年強勁成長的原因。由於上半年的貿易情勢更為嚴峻，外匯也將產生影響。

And as we shared the FX spot rates, it was the best we know to start the year. We shared that with you. We put that on the chart, we will update you every quarter and if non US currencies get stronger, you'll see that flow through in the appendix, you'll see that 30% of our 2024 revenue is in US dollars and 70% in other currencies.

正如我們分享的外匯現貨匯率一樣，這是我們所知的今年年初的最佳匯率。我們與您分享了這一點。我們把它放在圖表上，我們會每季更新一次，如果非美國貨幣走強，你會在附錄中看到這一情況，你會看到我們2024 年收入的30% 是以美元計算的，70 %其他貨幣。

That's great. Thank you. And then just my follow up is on the new equipment sort of backlog outlook. So I think new equipment backlog at constant currency was down mid-single digits in Q4 with sort of full year. New equipment orders down high single digits for the year.

那太棒了。謝謝。然後我的後續問題是有關新設備積壓前景的問題。因此，我認為以固定匯率計算的新設備積壓量在第四季度和全年都下降了中等個位數。今年新設備訂單下降了個位數。

As we look to this year ahead, based on your comments around China stabilizing later in the year and orders recovery in the Americas and EMEA, should we expect that new equipment, backlog or RPO to be, up exiting 2025, is that kind of the core assumption informing the various cost savings programs and so forth that you've laid out today?

展望今年，根據您關於中國今年晚些時候將穩定下來以及美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區訂單復甦的評論，我們是否應該預期到 2025 年新設備、積壓訂單或 RPO 會達到什麼水平，您今天提出的各種成本節約計劃等等的核心假設是什麼？

J Julian, our new equipment backlog is down 4%. The Americas backlog is down mid-single. They had a tremendous revenue year in '24. So they drove a lot of deliveries, a lot of shipments and a lot of installations out of our Florence factory. And there are orders coming in second half of '24.

J Julian，我們的新設備積壓量下降了 4%。美洲積壓訂單量下降至中期。1924 年是他們的收入豐厚的一年。因此，他們從我們的佛羅倫薩工廠運送了大量貨物、裝運和安裝。24年下半年還會有訂單。

Americas is our longest lead time for conversion to revenue there. EMEA backlog is solid and actually up nicely, almost double digit. And APE is up low teens. So we have this blend going on in backlog with China obviously being down that we will be working through. And again, we're encouraged by the new equipment market segments being up in three of our four markets. Unfortunately, they're not the book and ship markets as much and so we'll go from there.

美洲是我們收入轉換週期最長的地區。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的積壓訂單很穩定，而且實際上成長良好，幾乎達到了兩位數。APE 處於較低水準。因此，我們的混合訂單積壓，而中國訂單明顯處於低迷狀態，我們將努力解決這個問題。我們再次受到鼓舞，因為我們四個市場中有三個市場的新設備細分市場出現成長。不幸的是，他們並不是圖書和船舶市場，所以我們將從那裡開始。

Got it. But the sort of China stabilization later in the year --

知道了。但今年稍後中國經濟的穩定--

Let me, just wait, let Julian, let me just correct myself. EMEA is up, let's say, mid or a bit backlog.

讓我等一下，讓朱利安，讓我糾正自己。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的積壓訂單量處於中等或略有增加。

Got it. Thank you. I just wanted to follow up very quickly, Judy on the China stabilization later in the year. That's based on sort of any assumptions around. When you look at sort of conversation with property developers or expected stimulus moves and any sort of fleshing out of that China kind of stable assumption for the out years?

知道了。謝謝。朱迪，我只是想快速跟進一下今年晚些時候中國局勢的穩定。這是基於周圍的任何假設。當您觀察與房地產開發商的對話或預期的刺激措施，以及對未來幾年中國經濟穩定的假設時，您會怎麼想？

Yeah. So no new stimulus is assumed in that, but it is coming from discussions with a lot of state-owned enterprises, a lot of local party officials because this is now transitioned to a local ownership challenge and a local economic challenge for the local government.

是的。因此，其中並沒有假設新的刺激措施，但它來自與許多國有企業、許多地方黨政官員的討論，因為這現在已轉變為對地方政府所有權和地方經濟的挑戰。

So in all of those discussions that we're having there is this feeling that from the stimulus activities we saw in '24, which were multiple, but haven't really yet changed sentiment with the buyers. We'll see what happens now with the Chinese New Year this week and the Lunar holiday that's happening as we speak in terms of real estate, which tends to happen this time of year.

因此，在我們進行的所有討論中，我們都感覺到，從我們在 24 年看到的刺激活動來看，這些活動雖然多種多樣，但並沒有真正改變買家的情緒。我們將觀察本週中國新年和農曆假期將發生什麼情況，就房地產而言，這通常發生在每年的這個時候。

There is a general feeling we are getting that gives us more confidence to believe that is when we will hit that stable foundation point that I said between 350,000 and 400,000 new equipment units going forward.

我們普遍的感覺是，我們更有信心相信，我們將達到我所說的穩定的基礎點，未來新設備數量將達到 35 萬至 40 萬台。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫‧斯普拉格 (Jeff Sprague)，垂直研究公司。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Judy, I just want to drill a little bit more into China service, which obviously important part of the call here today. Could you just address China conversion, I see you shared the 51% with us in the slides.

謝謝。大家早安。朱迪，我只是想更深入地談談中國服務，這顯然是今天電話會議的重要部分。您能否談談中國轉型，我看到您在幻燈片中與我們分享了 51%。

We got global at 66. I think that kind of means ex China you run 90% is sort of conversion. Maybe just kind of speak to the dynamics behind the conversion rate in China. What you're working on or what you shared with us today, might improve that conversion rate?

我們在 66 歲時就走向了全球化。我認為這意味著在中國以外，90% 的業務都屬於轉換。也許只是談談中國轉換率背後的動態。您正在進行的工作或今天與我們分享的內容可能會提高轉換率嗎？

Yeah, Jeff. The conversion rate ex China is approximately where you said it was. So the rest of the world, on average is close to 90%. We have some markets where we're getting close to 100% and others that are just a little under 90%. So I would say average, that's the right metric for you to use. China conversions, I think we've done a lot to make the conversions happen more efficiently, more effectively and where we want them to in terms of location and density.

是的，傑夫。中國以外的兌換率大約和您所說的一樣。世界其他地區的平均值接近 90%。在某些市場，我們的覆蓋率接近 100%，而在其他市場，我們的覆蓋率略低於 90%。所以我會說平均值是適合您使用的正確衡量標準。對於中國轉換，我認為我們已經做了很多工作，使轉換更有效率、更有效，並且按照我們想要的位置和密度進行。

We do that because more than half of our China portfolio is connected. We are shipping all of our units with Otis one on them and that creates this stickiness for conversions. So, we've got the technology there. We've got the relationships there. But now that we've -- we're still a dual brand as Cristina mentioned.

我們這樣做是因為我們在中國的投資組合中有一半以上是互聯互通的。我們運送的所有設備都配有 Otis 設備，這為轉換創造了這種黏性。我們已經擁有這項技術。我們在那裡建立了關係。但是現在我們——正如克里斯蒂娜所提到的，我們仍然是一個雙品牌。

We still have two brands, but we don't have two independent businesses operating. So our service workforce as they come take over during the warranty period, they'll get to know Otis, and they'll get to know we'll have greater coverage because we won't be one brand of coverage versus another independent brand of coverage. That's going to give us what we think is increased stickiness for post warranty for that conversion as just one example.

我們仍然有兩個品牌，但是我們並沒有兩個獨立的業務運作。因此，當我們的服務人員在保固期內接手時，他們會了解奧的斯，他們會知道我們將提供更大的覆蓋範圍，因為我們不會成為一個品牌的覆蓋範圍，而另一個獨立的品牌覆蓋範圍。我們認為這將會增加轉換後保固的黏性，這只是一個例子。

And then maybe similar just on retention. Maybe this is a function of the softer China. But I think it's drifted down a little bit. I had like 94% in '22 and 93.5% in '23 and I think we're 92.5% here now. Just kind of what's going on that is that China, is there some something else kind of pressuring the attention rate a little bit?

那麼在保留方面可能也是類似的。這或許是中國態度趨軟的表現。但我認為它已經有所下降了。我在 22 年達到了 94%，在 23 年達到了 93.5%，我認為現在我們已經達到了 92.5%。那麼，中國現在的情況是怎樣的呢？

Yes. It's interesting because we focus -- we certainly focus on retention rate. And you've heard me say before, we have the leading retention rate across our industry, but we want to continue to improve that. As I mentioned in one of my other answers, though, we're using data more effectively and more efficiently to understand what every unit contributes in our service portfolio. So now it's not all about rates, it's not all about 4.2% portfolio growth, it's about having the most profitable growing portfolio we can.

是的。這很有趣，因為我們關注——我們當然關注保留率。你之前也聽我說過，我們的員工留任率在整個產業中處於領先地位，但我們希望繼續提高這個水準。不過，正如我在另一個回答中提到的那樣，我們正在更有效、更有效率地使用數據來了解每個部門在我們的服務組合中所做的貢獻。所以現在，問題不在於利率，也不在於 4.2% 的投資組合成長率，而是在於我們能否擁有最具獲利能力的成長型投資組合。

So using that, I would tell you, going from 93.5% or so to [92.4%] some of that is involuntary. Obviously, we have customers who are not thrilled at times with our performance or for other reasons, decide to change. But some of that's not voluntary. And so we are working through our portfolio.

因此，根據這個數字，我會告訴你，從 93.5% 左右到 [92.4%]，其中一些是非自願的。顯然，有些客戶有時對我們的表現不滿意，或因其他原因決定更換。但其中有些並不是自願的。所以我們正在努力完善我們的投資組合。

And what Cristina and I have tried to make sure the team does is even if that retention rate is going down, we're getting higher quality in the portfolio, higher profit dollars and we're also making sure that we're net neutral on our net churn, so that the conversions then become the portfolio growth.

我和克里斯蒂娜一直努力確保團隊做到即使留存率下降，我們的投資組合品質也會提高，利潤也會更高，我們也會確保我們對我們的淨流失，以便轉換成為投資組合的成長。

So if you noticed in the backup, we are neutral on net churn, even though the retention rate went down. So we're going to have a higher quality contributing portfolio, and then I do believe you'll see the retention rate go up again.

因此，如果您注意到備份，我們對淨流失率持中立態度，即使保留率下降了。因此，我們將擁有更高品質的貢獻組合，然後我相信你會看到保留率再次上升。

Great. Thanks for that color. And then just one other quick one just on China. What are you thinking for new equipment price in 2025, if you gave us just the volume outlook?

偉大的。謝謝你這個顏色。最後我再簡單問一下關於中國的問題。如果您只提供我們數量預測，您認為 2025 年新設備的價格是多少？

Yeah. We expect the price with cost being roughly neutral. So that would mean maybe a few points of prime decline, but we will compensate with regular cost out.

是的。我們預計價格與成本大致為中性。所以這可能意味著主要成本會下降幾個點，但我們會透過常規成本來補償。

Yeah. And we're already seeing -- we've got about 40% of our commodities locked globally. But in China, with the deflationary and steel, we're locking in, as much as we can still coming up with other engineering and material productivity, our teams are working around the clock to get the cost side down as they have every year.

是的。我們已經看到——我們大約 40% 的商品在全球範圍內被鎖定。但在中國，由於通貨緊縮，鋼鐵，我們仍在盡可能地提高其他工程和材料的生產力，我們的團隊正在日以繼夜地工作，以像每年一樣降低成本。

Great. Thank you for all those details.

偉大的。感謝您提供這些詳細資訊。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Hi, Steve.

你好，史蒂夫。

Most of the questions have been asked but just on the new equipment orders. I think you said it was a was there like a 15% difference between the total and the total ex China? Is that the right? It goes from negative four to positive 11. I think you said ex China?

大部分問題都已經問過了，但只是關於新設備訂單。我記得您說過總量和中國出口總量之間是否有 15% 的差異？那是正確的嗎？從負4度上升到正11度。我認為您說的是中國以外？

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, I don't know what percentage of orders China was in 4Q of last year. I know your revenue base is 25%. But I mean that implies if you just use the 25% that China orders are down like, I don't know, 50%-plus, it like -- it's a pretty big hit, right, adjustment for China. It might (multiple speakers) --

所以我的意思是，我不知道去年第四季中國訂單佔比是多少。我知道你的收入基數是 25%。但我的意思是，這意味著如果你只使用 25% 的數據，那麼中國訂單就會下降，我不知道，50% 以上，這對中國來說是一個相當大的打擊，對吧，調整。有可能（多位發言者）——

I wouldn't go that. I think you're a little too high, but you're not far off.

我不會這麼做。我認為你的目標有點太高了，但也不算太高。

So I guess, so how do we reconcile that with like a 10% of view of next year down 10%. I don't know would like the annual ultimately the kind of the annual was. But like is your backlog still -- do you have enough backlog to be like super confident in that 10% today?

所以我想，那麼我們該如何將這種情況與明年下降 10% 的 10% 觀點相協調呢？我不知道這份年鑑最終會是什麼樣子的。但您的積壓訂單是否仍然——您是否有足夠的積壓訂單讓您對今天的那 10% 充滿信心？

Or are you kind of getting towards the end of the year, a little bit more hand to mouth because these are some -- obviously, it's not a huge part of your business anymore profit-wise, but some pretty significant declines, obviously?

或者，接近年底，你們的獲利情況會不會有點勉強糊口，因為從利潤角度來看，這顯然不再是你們業務的很大一部分了，但顯然出現了一些相當大的下滑？

Yeah. So our traditional China business was about two-thirds backlog coming into a year and a third book and ship. So that's your term hand and mouth. My term book and ship.

是的。因此，我們傳統的中國業務大約有三分之二是一年內積壓的訂單，三分之一是預訂和出貨。這就是你的術語“手和嘴”。我的學期書和船。

(laughter) that's okay, we're talking similar language here. So, and that's not -- we did not see that materialized in the third or especially the fourth quarter. So, we're going to keep watching it. We believe the year ended '24 for the segment -- new equipment segment in China 420,000 units, and we believe it's going to be down another 10. And that's why I think it's going to end between 350,000 and 400,000 and stabilize there.

（笑聲）沒關係，我們在這裡談論的是類似的語言。所以，這並不是——我們沒有看到這種情況在第三季或特別是第四季實現。因此，我們將繼續關注。我們認為，截至 24 年，中國新設備銷售量為 42 萬台，並且預計今年還會下降 10%。這就是為什麼我認為最終數量將在35萬至40萬之間並穩定下來。

Okay. But, I guess I'm just wondering, how like doesn't seem like that's like you've got a ton of visibility on that given how we're kind of entering the year (multiple speakers) average visibility.

好的。但是，我想我只是想知道，考慮到我們即將進入今年（多位發言者）的平均可見度，這似乎並不是那麼明顯。

Yeah, I'd say that much similar visibility to last year. Although we started, we thought it was going to -- it came in worse, the fourth quarter. Actually, the segment came in down 20. So the year came in down 15 because it did not -- none of the stimulus really helped new equipment per se.

是的，我想說的是，今年的可見度與去年非常相似。儘管我們一開始就認為情況會——但第四節的情況更糟。事實上，該細分市場下降了 20%。所以今年的銷售額下降了 15%，因為沒有任何刺激措施真正對新設備本身有幫助。

But I, I'd say we have similar visibility going into this year and we've already seen the January results because our teams off right now for the Chinese New year. So I think we've got pretty good line of sight.

但我想說，我們今年也有類似的前景，而且我們已經看到了一月份的業績，因為我們的團隊現在正休假迎接農曆新年。所以我認為我們的視線已經相當好了。

Okay. Great. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。非常感謝。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thanks. I'll try to combine my questions here in an effort of time. I wanted to ask about the Americas business. So last quarter, we saw a sharp positive rate of change on the year-on-year order growth for Americas. But it seems like it's mostly a function of comps. So I guess my questions are, one, are America's orders going higher in absolute terms?

謝謝。我將盡量節省時間，在這裡整理我的問題。我想詢問有關美洲業務的情況。因此，上個季度，我們看到美洲地區訂單年增率大幅上升。但它似乎主要是 comps 的功能。所以我想我的問題是，第一，美國的訂單絕對量是否會增加？

Or is this still primarily a function of comps? And I understand I guess, and then why do you guys believe the Americas market will be up low singles next year, but your new equipment business in the Americas will be down those singles? I know orders convert slowly to revenue. In the Americas, but I didn't know if you guys are different from the broader industry in that regard. Thank you.

或者這仍然主要是 comps 的功能？我想我明白了，那麼為什麼你們認為明年美洲市場的銷量會較低，但你們在美洲的新設備業務銷量會下降呢？我知道訂單轉化為收入的速度很慢。在美洲，但我不知道你們在這方面是否與更廣泛的行業不同。謝謝。

Yeah, I don't think, let me answer your second one. I don't think we're different from the broader industry, for four quarters before, for the second half of '23 and first half of '24, America's orders were down significantly and understandably with what was happening in the economy, interest rates going up and developers just not making those decisions.

是的，我不這麼認為，讓我來回答你的第二個問題。我認為我們與整個產業沒有什麼不同，在之前的四個季度裡，也就是 2023 年下半年和 2024 年上半年，美國的訂單大幅下降，這可以理解，因為當時經濟、利率都在下降。開發商只是沒有做出這些決定。

We started seeing some of those green shoots happen late in the second quarter, which led to a positive third quarter and then the fourth quarter, we were up 14% in new equipment orders, and I believe that was more than I more than a compare --

我們在第二季末開始看到一些復甦跡象，這導致了第三季和第四季的積極表現，我們的新設備訂單增加了 14%，我相信這比我去年同期的業績要好。--

It was, I can comment on that. So sequentially, we have been growing new equipment orders in absolute dollars every quarter in 2024 including Q4. So there was also a good ramp up Q4 compared to Q3.

是的，我可以對此發表評論。因此，以絕對美元計算，2024 年（包括第四季）每季的新設備訂單都在增加。因此，與第三季相比，第四季也出現了良好的成長。

But we are, I'll tell you, Chris, we are seeing -- and again, this is, whether you could look at ABI and be very pessimistic, ABI to us tends to lag even up to 18 months as an indicator for us, the dodge construction index looks positive and it is positive.

但是，克里斯，我要告訴你，我們看到——再說一次，無論你是否可以對 ABI 持非常悲觀的態度，ABI 對我們來說往往滯後甚至長達 18 個月，作為我們的指標，道奇建築指數看起來是正數，而且是正數。

The construction activity is picking up, the proposal activity is strong, our ability to convert has been very strong. We've got line of sight for 18 months now in our America's backlog. The reason even though the segments up and our backlog is down or our '25 looks down low, single digit is because we had such a strong revenue year, working through backlog and our Americas team deserves a ton of credit in '24. We'll refill that, but it is the -- with permitting with all the other challenges, America's jobs, even the volume jobs just take longer from order to full revenue recognition.

建築活動正在升溫，提案活動強勁，我們的轉換能力非常強。我們已經關注了美國 18 個月的積壓工作。儘管各分部業務上升，而積壓訂單下降，或者說25 年的訂單量看起來很低，甚至只有個位數，原因在於我們今年的收入非常強勁，我們努力處理積壓訂單，因此我們的美洲團隊在24 年獲得了大量讚譽。我們會重新填補這個空缺，但是——考慮到所有其他挑戰，美國的就業，即使是大量就業，從訂單到完全確認收入也需要更長的時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nick Housden, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行的尼克‧豪斯登 (Nick Housden)。

Yeah, hi everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I'll just ask one. If we think about the 4.2% growth in the installed base, is it possible to break this down into new equipment conversions, retention, recapture and then also MOD conversion because I mean, my sense is that, in the past two, three years, MOD conversions are probably becoming, the biggest feeder of the portfolio as that business gets bigger and new equipment is declining. So I'm just curious if you can, maybe quantify that, please?

是的，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。我只問一個。如果我們考慮安裝基數 4.2% 的成長，是否可以將其分解為新設備轉換、保留、重新捕獲以及 MOD 轉換，因為我的意思是，我的感覺是，在過去的兩三年裡，隨著業務規模不斷擴大，新設備需求不斷下降，MOD 改裝很可能成為投資組合中最大的支柱。所以我只是好奇，您是否可以量化這一點，可以嗎？

Yeah, next so on MOD conversions, there's two types of MODs, there's an on portfolio MOD and there's an off portfolio MOD. And on portfolio modernization or refurbishment is one where we already have it in our service portfolio.

是的，接下來是 MOD 轉換，有兩種類型的 MOD，一種是投資組合內的 MOD，另一種是投資組合外的 MOD。在產品組合現代化或翻新方面，我們已經將其納入了我們的服務組合中。

And so we get the modernization, we tend to get it in a less competitive environment because we've been cultivating, working with the customer, helping them financially plan for this with their capital planners and we get those. So those are almost net neutral, when you think about the fact that they're already on our portfolio.

因此，我們實現了現代化，我們傾向於在競爭不那麼激烈的環境中實現它，因為我們一直在培養、與客戶合作，幫助他們與資本規劃人員一起進行財務規劃，然後我們實現了這些。所以當你想到它們已經在我們的投資組合中時，它們幾乎是淨中性的。

So I just want to make sure you understand, but off portfolio MODs that we can bring back something that's not in our maintenance today, do the modernization and then convert it, that becomes an incremental portfolio upside. So kind of one is almost retention and the other is truly a new portfolio ad.

所以我只是想確保你理解，但是透過投資組合 MOD，我們可以帶回一些今天不在我們維護範圍內的東西，進行現代化改造然後進行轉換，這將成為增量投資組合的優勢。因此，一種幾乎是保留，另一種是真正的新組合廣告。

So I know and I'm really -- I'm excited about the MOD market, I hope you know that we purposely added a strategic imperative. We focused the company on it across the board from sales to moving this into our manufacturing plants.

所以我知道，我真的——我對 MOD 市場感到非常興奮，我希望你知道，我們特意增加了一個戰略要務。我們全公司都致力於此，從銷售到將其轉移到我們的製造工廠。

We're trying to get the supply chain, we are driving these packages on the supply chain activity and savings and we will grow significantly in MOD. But a portion of that will be MOD from our own portfolio. So that's kind of protect versus new growth.

我們正在努力獲得供應鏈，我們正在推動這些方案對供應鏈活動和節約的影響，我們將在國防部實現顯著成長。但其中一部分將來自我們自己的投資組合中的 MOD。這是一種針對新增長的保護措施。

So I just as you think about that, I just want to add that dimension because I'm not sure we've discussed that before. Right now, we have not broken out yet where MOD comes into the 4.2. But I would tell you off portfolio MOD would be a very small portion to date of that 4.2.

所以，正如你所想的那樣，我只是想添加這個維度，因為我不確定我們之前是否討論過這個問題。現在，我們尚未知道 MOD 在 4.2 的位置。但我要告訴你，到目前為止，投資組合 MOD 只佔 4.2 的一小部分。

Very small. So this is all still service conversion, recapture retention with a very small MOD, that MOD off portfolio is going to grow significantly over time and we'll try and provide at least color on how that's growing as we go forward.

非常小。因此，這仍然是服務轉換，使用非常小的 MOD 重新獲得保留，該 MOD 組合將隨著時間的推移而顯著增長，我們將嘗試至少提供有關其在未來如何增長的顏色。

That's really helpful. Thanks very much.

這真的很有幫助。非常感謝。

Miguel Borrega, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的米格爾‧博雷加 (Miguel Borrega)。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I just have one last question. And wanted your views around the modernization market in China and whether this market become increasingly competitive over the years to come? In other words, why wouldn't we see the same kind of price pressure in MODs as we've seen in new equipment? Thank you very much.

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我還有最後一個問題。您想了解您對中國現代化市場的看法以及未來幾年這個市場的競爭是否會愈發激烈嗎？換句話說，為什麼我們在 MOD 中看不到與新設備相同的價格壓力？非常感謝。

Yeah, thanks Miguel. I think it actually ties nicely into my last conversation, which is if you have the customer relationship and you can be on your own portfolio, you have a higher probability of a potential sole source award for modernization because you're crafting it. When it's off portfolio, just like anywhere in the world it'll be competitive.

是的，謝謝米格爾。我認為這實際上與我上次的談話很好地契合，也就是說，如果你擁有客戶關係並且可以擁有自己的投資組合，那麼你就有更高的機率獲得潛在的單一現代化來源獎，因為你正在製定它。當它不在投資組合中時，就像世界上任何地方一樣，它會具有競爭力。

I think the biggest difference in China to date is we don't see that the multitude of independent service providers, they have such a large service portfolio. I mean, 40% of the install base, it's still growing, [400 -- 500,000] units a year are converting out of new equipment at the segment level into service in China.

我認為迄今為止中國最大的不同是，我們還沒有看到許多獨立服務提供者擁有如此龐大的服務組合。我的意思是，40%的安裝基數仍在成長，每年有[400 - 500,000]台設備在中國從新設備轉換為服務。

There's ample service work for ISPs in China. So we don't see them really trying to penetrate the modernization market at any level. Modernization takes construction skills, it takes different skills than just repairing and maintaining elevators because you have to pull a unit out. There's no general contractor. You do it all as the modernization provider.

中國的互聯網服務供應商有充足的服務工作。因此，我們並沒有看到他們真正嘗試在任何層面上打入現代化市場。現代化需要施工技能，它需要的技能不同於只修理和維護電梯，因為你必須把一個裝置拉出來。沒有總承包商。作為現代化提供者，您可以完成所有工作。

So while we see some large ISPs in some parts of the mature markets doing that, it's not a large number. And in China, it's a very small number. So will it get competitive with the larger OEMs potentially? Will it be a large market to serve? Yes.

因此，雖然我們看到一些成熟市場的大型 ISP 正在這樣做，但數量並不多。而在中國，這個數字非常小。那麼它是否有可能與大型 OEM 競爭？這個市場會很大嗎？是的。

Should we get good pricing on our own portfolio? Yes, which is why another reason why we want to grow our China service portfolio as rapidly as possible and have been focused and have a strategy to do that. But we've already moved modernization packages into our new equipment factories in China. And just as we're procuring parts for new equipment for a Gen3 or a Gen360, we're doing the same for a Gen3 MOD. It's the same equipment.

我們應該為自己的投資組合獲得良好的定價嗎？是的，這也是我們希望盡快擴大我們在中國服務組合的原因，並且一直集中精力並制定策略來實現這一點。但我們已經將現代化套件轉移到中國的新設備工廠。就像我們為 Gen3 或 Gen360 購買新設備零件一樣，我們也為 Gen3 MOD 進行相同的採購。這是相同的設備。

It's the same machine. It's -- so we're getting those we're getting that supply quantity of scale. We're getting everything. And now in China because it will be so large, we are going to have really MOD installation teams that will be going from installation to installation, so that installation efficiency will be very cost effective as well. So everything that worked at scale in new equipment on the cost side in China will be what we leverage for Mod.

這是同一台機器。是的 — — 所以，我們得到了這些，我們得到了一定規模的供應數量。我們得到了一切。現在在中國，因為規模非常大，我們將擁有真正的 MOD 安裝團隊，負責從一個安裝點到另一個安裝點，這樣安裝效率也將非常具有成本效益。因此，中國在成本方面大規模生產新設備的一切成果都將成為我們為 Mod 所利用的資源。

Super helpful. Thank you very much.

超有幫助。非常感謝。

(multiple speakers) sorry, this concludes the Q&A session. I will now turn to Judy Marks for closing remarks.

（多位發言者）抱歉，問答環節到此結束。現在請朱迪·馬克斯致結束語。

Well, thank you, Sarah. Listen, 2024 was a year of service strength and strategic resiliency for Otis. We enter 2025 with confidence in our long term strategy and certain of our ability to provide value for our customers, colleagues and shareholders. I hope everyone stays safe and well, thank you for joining us today.

好吧，謝謝你，莎拉。聽著，2024 年對奧的斯來說是服務實力和策略彈性的一年。進入 2025 年，我們對自己的長期策略充滿信心，並堅信我們有能力為客戶、同事和股東提供價值。我希望每個人都平安健康，感謝您今天的加入我們。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。