奧的斯電梯 (OTIS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Otis third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions.) I'll now tirn thecall is over to Michael Rednor, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加奧的斯 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示。）我現在將電話轉接給投資者關係高級副總裁邁克爾·雷德諾（Michael Rednor）。請繼續。

Thank you, Christa, welcome to Otis third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President; and Cristina Mendez, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please note, except where otherwise noted the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring and significant non-recurring items.

謝謝 Christa，歡迎參加奧的斯 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的有董事長、執行長兼總裁朱迪‧馬克斯 (Judy Marks)；執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜·門德斯 (Cristina Mendez)。請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括重組和重大非經常性項目。

A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis's SEC filings, including our Form10-K, and quarterly reports on Form10-Q provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Judy.

這些措施的協調可以在網路廣播的附錄中找到。我們也提醒聽眾，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。奧的斯向 SEC 提交的文件（包括 Form10-K）和 Form10-Q 季度報告提供了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。現在我想把電話轉給朱迪​​。

Thank you, Mike, and Good Morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Thank you, for joining us. I hope all are safe and well. Starting with Q3 highlights on slide 3, Otis return to top line growth in the third quarter as we continue to demonstrate the strength of our service driven business model with solid third quarter results.

謝謝麥克，大家早安，下午好，晚上好。謝謝您加入我們。我希望所有人都安全、一切順利。從幻燈片 3 中的第三季亮點開始，奧的斯在第三季度恢復了營收成長，我們繼續以穩健的第三季業績展示我們服務驅動的業務模式的實力。

In service, we delivered high single-digit growth in Q3, bringing year to date service organic sales to 6.4%, with all lines of business contributing. We achieved maintenance portfolio growth of 4.2%, and our modernization backlog increased 12% at constant currency.

在服務方面，我們在第三季度實現了高個位數成長，使年初至今的服務有機銷售額達到 6.4%，所有業務線都做出了貢獻。以固定匯率計算，我們的維修組合成長了 4.2%，現代化積壓訂單成長了 12%。

Through the first nine months of 2024 we have expanded overall adjusted operating profit margin by 60 basis points and achieved adjusted EPS growth of 8.2%. In Q3, we generated $381 million in adjusted free cash flow and completed $200 million in share repurchases.

2024 年前 9 個月，我們將整體調整後營業利益率擴大了 60 個基點，調整後每股盈餘成長了 8.2%。第三季度，我們產生了 3.81 億美元的調整後自由現金流，並完成了 2 億美元的股票回購。

Year to date, we've generated approximately $900 million in adjusted free cash flow, and returned $800 million through share repurchases, as we execute on our disciplined capital allocation strategy. Otis had several exciting accomplishments recently.

今年迄今為止，我們在執行嚴格的資本配置策略時，已產生約 9 億美元的調整後自由現金流，並透過股票回購返還 8 億美元。奧蒂斯最近取得了幾項令人興奮的成就。

For example, our manufacturing hub in Korea obtained ISO 5,001 certification notice, now has 11 manufacturing sites certified through the global standard for establishing implementing, maintaining, and improving energy management.

例如，我們在韓國的製造中心獲得了 ISO 5,001 認證通知，現在有 11 個製造基地通過了建立實施、維護和改進能源管理的全球標準認證。

In addition, we announced the expansion of our Bengaluru manufacturing facility. This will increase our capacity and capabilities to help meet the growing residential, commercial and infrastructure demand for elevators and escalators in India, while also expanding our localized manufacturing strategy in the country.

此外，我們也宣布擴建班加羅爾製造工廠。這將提高我們的產能和能力，有助於滿足印度住宅、商業和基礎設施對電梯和自動扶梯不斷增長的需求，同時也擴大我們在該國的在地化製造策略。

And whereas earlier this month, we're proud of named one of the World's Best Employers by Forbes Magazine for the third year in a row, reflecting our commitment to our colleagues, well-being.

本月早些時候，我們很自豪連續第三年被《富比士》雜誌評為全球最佳雇主之一，這反映了我們對同事福祉的承諾。

Moving to our orders performance new equipment orders were down 3% in the third quarter, a sequential improvement versus the first two quarters this year, despite continued challenging market conditions, excluding China, orders increased approximately 10%. Orders returned to growth in the Americas, growing more than 20%, with excellent performance in North America, while APAC delivered high single-digit growth, driven by continued strength in Japan and Southeast Asia.

轉向我們的訂單表現，第三季新設備訂單下降了 3%，與今年前兩個季度相比有所改善，儘管市場條件持續充滿挑戰（不包括中國），但訂單增長了約 10%。美洲訂單恢復成長，成長超過20%，其中北美表現出色，而在日本和東南亞持續強勁的推動下，亞太地區實現了高個位數成長。

Orders declined by high single digits in EMEA due to continued weakness in Western and Northern Europe brings orders to 8% year to date after a strong first half. A greater than 20% decline in China was the result of continued economic softness in a region.

由於西歐和北歐的持續疲軟，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的訂單出現高個位數下降，繼上半年的強勁訂單之後，今年迄今的訂單下降至 8%。中國的跌幅超過 20%，是該地區經濟持續疲軟的結果。

Our new equipment backlog at constant currency was down 3% versus the prior year, although similar to last quarter, the new equipment backlog excluding China, was up low single digits. This quarter mark two consecutive years of delivering 4% or greater maintenance portfolio growth in each quarter.

以固定匯率計算，我們的新設備積壓訂單比去年下降了 3%，儘管與上個季度類似，但不包括中國在內的新設備積壓訂單增長了低個位數。本季標誌著維護產品組合連續兩年每季實現 4% 或更高的成長。

And last within service modernization, orders increased 3% as we faced a challenging compare from the prior year in major project bookings, and we expect to see a bounce back to solid Mod orders growth in the fourth quarter with Mod orders year to date of approximately 10%. Our modernization backlog increases least 12% at constant currency versus the prior year, as our colleagues across the globe continue to deliver.

最後，在服務現代化方面，訂單增長了3%，因為我們在主要項目預訂方面面臨著與前一年相比的挑戰，我們預計第四季度Mod 訂單將反彈至穩定增長，今年迄今為止的Mod 訂單約為10%。以固定匯率計算，我們的現代化積壓工作與前一年相比增加了至少 12%，因為我們全球各地的同事都在繼續交付成果。

We have several customer highlights to share from the third quarter in Melbourne, Australia. Otis will modernize 30 elevators at 101 Collins Street in the central business district. Our Sky rise in Gen3 modernization specific products we feature, along with our signature reach and drive any Otis ONE IoT platform, Otis installed buildings original elevators in 1989 and has maintained them for past 35 years.

我們有幾個來自澳洲墨爾本第三季的客戶亮點可以分享。奧的斯將對中央商務區柯林斯街 101 號的 30 部電梯進行現代化改造。我們以第三代現代化特定產品Skyrise 為特色，加上我們標誌性的覆蓋範圍和驅動任何奧的斯ONE 物聯網平台，奧的斯於1989 年安裝了建築物的原始電梯，並在過去35 年裡一直對其進行維護。

In the United States were proud to support the expansion of the St. Luke's University Health Anderson campus hospital in Bethlehem Township, Pennsylvania. Otis will install nine elevators, including five Gen3 peak and one Gen3 edge unit for a new five floor addition, the St. Luke's organization has been a valued customer for more than 10 years.

在美國，我們很自豪能夠支持賓州伯利恆鎮聖路加大學健康安德森校區醫院的擴建。奧的斯將為新的五層樓安裝九部電梯，其中包括五部 Gen3 高峰電梯和一部 Gen3 邊緣電梯，聖路加組織十多年來一直是我們的重要客戶。

In the Nordics, our local teams have worked closely with customers to add more than 400 units to the portfolio. In Denmark, we've recaptured 275 units with Zomaya, a leading construction and housing business. And in Sweden, we've recaptured 132 units at Vallingby shopping center. The customer making a welcome returned to Otis after 10 years.

在北歐，我們的當地團隊與客戶密切合作，為產品組合增加了 400 多個單位。在丹麥，我們與領先的建築和住房企業 Zomaya 重新奪回了 275 套公寓。在瑞典，我們在 Vallingby 購物中心重新購買了 132 個單位。10年後，這位顧客再次來到奧的斯表示歡迎。

Reflecting the continued strength of the infrastructure vertical, Otis was selected to provide more than 340 escalators and Gen3 elevators for the Tianjin Metro in China as part of the metros new Line 8 and Binhai one line. This brings the total number of Otis units in the cities expanding Metro network to more than 2000. Tianjin Metro has been using Otis equipment for almost threee decades.

作為地鐵新 8 號線和濱海一號線的一部分，奧的斯被選中為中國天津地鐵提供 340 多部自動扶梯和 Gen3 電梯，這反映了基礎設施垂直領域的持續實力。這使得奧的斯在地鐵網路擴展的城市中的車輛總數達到 2000 多個。天津地鐵使用奧的斯設備已近三十年。

Turning to Q3 results, Otis delivered net sales of $3.5 billion with organic sales up approximately 1%, adjusted operating profit excluding a $4 million foreign exchange headwind, was up $8 million, driven by the service segment.

談到第三季業績，奧的斯實現淨銷售額35 億美元，有機銷售額成長約1%，在服務部門的推動下，調整後的營業利潤（排除400 萬美元的外匯不利因素）成長了800 萬美元。

Third-quarter adjusted EPS grew approximately 1% or $0.01 in the quarter against a tough compare of approximately 19% EPS growth in the third quarter the prior year. Operational performance was partially offset by foreign exchange headwinds. This brings year-to-date adjusted EPS growth to 8.2%.

第三季調整後每股收益成長約 1% 或 0.01 美元，而去年第三季每股收益成長約 19%。經營業績被外匯不利因素部分抵銷。這使得年初至今調整後每股盈餘成長至 8.2%。

With that, I'll turn it over to Christina to walk through our results in more detail.

接下來，我將把它交給克里斯蒂娜，讓她更詳細地介紹我們的結果。

Thank you, Judy. Starting with Q3 segments as performance on slide 6, total organic sales growth of 1.2% in the quarter was driven by service, which was up 7.7%. New Equipment organic sales were down 8.2%, driven by a greater than 20% decline in China, as market conditions remain weak.

謝謝你，朱迪。從幻燈片 6 中的第三季業績開始，該季度總有機銷售額增長 1.2%，這主要是由服務推動的，服務增長了 7.7%。由於市場狀況仍疲軟，新設備有機銷售額下降 8.2%，原因是中國市場下降超過 20%。

Excluding China, new equipment sales increased low single digits. The decline in China was partially offset by low single digit growth in APAC, driven by strength in Japan on the one as well as low-single digit growth in the America's.

不包括中國，新設備銷售額成長低個位數。中國的下滑被亞太地區的低個位數成長所部分抵消，而亞太地區的成長是由日本的強勢以及美國的低個位數成長所推動的。

EMEA was roughly flat as a strength in Southern Europe was upset by Western and Central Europe. New equipment pricing was up low single digits in all regions outside of China. Similar to last quarter, China continues to be under severe price pressure with continued declines of approximately 10% year over year, although pricing was relatively flat sequentially.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現大致持平，因為南歐的實力被西歐和中歐擊敗。中國以外所有地區的新設備價格均出現低個位數成長。與上季類似，中國繼續面臨嚴峻的價格壓力，儘管價格相對持平，但年比持續下降約 10%。

Services were $2.2 billion with organic sales growth of 7.7%, as we delivered on our expected acceleration from the mid-single digit growth in the first two quarters of the year. We grew in all regions and in all lines of business.

服務業銷售額達 22 億美元，有機銷售額成長 7.7%，我們實現了今年前兩季中個位數成長的預期加速。我們在所有地區和所有業務領域都取得了成長。

Maintenance and repair increased over 6% in the quarter, supported by continued strong portfolio growth. Maintenance pricing up around 4 points, excluding the impact of mix on churn and then ramp up will be better volumes.

在持續強勁的投資組合成長的支持下，本季維護和維修成長超過 6%。維護價格上漲約 4 個點，排除混合對客戶流失的影響，然後增加銷售量將會更好。

Modernization organic sales accelerated in the quarter, up about 14%, bringing year-to-date organic sales to approximately 10%, with excellence growth in Asia Pacific, which was up 20%, including contributions widely across geographies.

本季現代化有機銷售額加速成長約 14%，使年初至今的有機銷售額達到約 10%，其中亞太地區實現卓越成長，成長 20%，其中包括跨地區的廣泛貢獻。

Thirdly to Q3 segment operating profit performance on slide 7. New Equipment operating profit of $84 million was down $20 million at constant currency, as tailwinds from pricing continues to flow from the backlog for the activity including the benefits of uplift, a lower commodity costs were more than offset by the impacts of lower volume and regional and product mix headwinds.

第三是幻燈片 7 上的第三季營業利潤表現。新設備營業利潤為8,400 萬美元，以固定匯率計算，下降了2,000 萬美元，原因是定價的推動力繼續從活動積壓中產生，其中包括商品成本上升的好處，但銷量下降和區域銷量下降的影響遠遠抵消了這一影響。

Operating profit margins came in at 6.4%. We have to date, new equipment sales are down over $250 million and operating profit has declined by $20 million at constant currency versus the prior year. In China, new equipment has the new revenue has been for approximately $400 million that would imply a profit headwind of about $100 million, which we have largely mitigated through solid productivity and the benefit of commodity on pricing tailwinds.

營業利益率為 6.4%。迄今為止，與前一年相比，以固定匯率計算，新設備銷售額下降了 2.5 億美元以上，營業利潤下降了 2,000 萬美元。在中國，新設備的新收入約為 4 億美元，這意味著約 1 億美元的利潤逆風，我們透過穩定的生產力和大宗商品對定價順風的好處在很大程度上緩解了這種逆風。

Service operating profit of $555 million, increase $40 million at constant currency. As drop-through on higher volume, favorable pricing and productivity including benefits from at least more than offset unwanted wage inflation. As a result, operating profit margins remained strong at 24.8%, even while facing a difficult prior-year compare where margins expanded 90 basis points in the third quarter of 2023.

服務營業利潤為 5.55 億美元，以固定匯率計算增加 4,000 萬美元。隨著銷售增加、有利的定價和生產力的下降，包括至少抵消了不必要的薪資上漲的好處。因此，儘管與前一年相比面臨困難（2023 年第三季利潤率擴大了 90 個基點），但營業利潤率仍保持在 24.8% 的強勁水平。

Year to date, operating profit margins have expanded 60 basis points to 24.6% with the benefit of our various uplift initiatives, we drove year to date adjusted SG&A was lower by $18 million, while improving as a percentage of sales by 10 basis points year over year.

年初至今，得益於我們的各種提升舉措，營業利潤率已擴大60 個基點至24.6%，我們推動年初至今調整後的SG&A 降低了1800 萬美元，同時佔銷售額的百分比同比提高了10 個基點年。

On a slight organic sales growth these cost initiatives are helping to mitigate labor inflation headwinds, supported by a sustained strong performance in the service segment we achieved total operating profit margins of 16.9% in the quarter.

在有機銷售略有成長的情況下，這些成本措施有助於緩解勞動力通膨的不利因素，在服務部門持續強勁表現的支持下，我們在本季度實現了 16.9% 的總營業利潤率。

Adjusted EPS grew 1% or $0.01 in the third quarter with our operational performance on a lower share count contributing positively. Moving to cash, we generated three $381 million of adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter, and we saw sequential improvement in cash from operations we see in the quarter.

第三季調整後每股收益成長 1% 或 0.01 美元，我們的營運表現在股份數量減少的情況下做出了積極貢獻。轉向現金，我們在第三季度產生了 3.81 億美元的調整後自由現金流，並且我們看到本季營運現金的連續改善。

We continue to work to drive cash flow into year end despite the various macroeconomic challenges that we are facing across our business, most notably in China, due to the lower new equipment orders. Overall, year to date, we grew organic sales 1.2% with mid-single-digit or greater growth in all regions outside of China.

儘管由於新設備訂單減少，我們的業務面臨各種宏觀經濟挑戰，尤其是在中國，但我們仍將繼續努力推動現金流進入年底。總體而言，今年迄今為止，我們的有機銷售額成長了 1.2%，在中國以外的所有地區均實現了中個位數或更高的成長。

With service as the driver, we have delivered 60 basis points of margin expansion, 8.2% adjusted EPS growth while returning $800 million to shareholders through share buybacks. We move into the final quarter of the year with continued focus on operational excellence across the business while working to offset the macro headwinds we are facing.

以服務為驅動力，我們實現了 60 個基點的利潤率擴張、8.2% 的調整後每股收益成長，同時透過股票回購向股東返還 8 億美元。進入今年最後一個季度，我們將繼續專注於整個業務的卓越運營，同時努力抵消我們面臨的宏觀阻力。

Let me now turn it back to Judy to discuss our 2024 outlook.

現在讓我回到 Judy 來討論我們 2024 年的展望。

Now on slide 8. Before discussing our updated 2024 financial outlook, let me first update you on our industry outlook, including giving some color on how we anticipate 2025 markets to shape up. On the positive side, we now expect the Americas to be roughly flat, up from the prior outlook as customer demand signals are showing signs of improvement.

現在在投影片 8 上。在討論我們更新的 2024 年財務展望之前，讓我先向您介紹我們的產業前景，包括對我們預計 2025 年市場將如何形成進行一些說明。從積極的方面來看，由於客戶需求訊號顯示出改善的跡象，我們現在預計美洲地區的銷售將大致持平，高於先前的預期。

We expect China to down approximately 15%, and this takes our Asia outlook down to a roughly 10% decline. There is no change to our new equipment outlook in EMEA or APAC. Overall, we expect global new equipment units to be down high single digits for 2024.

我們預計中國將下降約 15%，這使我們對亞洲的展望下降約 10%。我們在歐洲、中東和非洲或亞太地區的新設備前景沒有改變。總體而言，我們預計 2024 年全球新設備數量將出現高個位數下降。

Offsetting the pressure on new equipment markets the service market remains resilient, and we expect the global installed base to grow mid-single digits this year, as units that were booked a few years ago are coming off warranty and converted into the service space.

抵消了新設備市場的壓力，服務市場仍然保持彈性，我們預計今年全球安裝基數將實現中個位數成長，因為幾年前預訂的設備即將過保固期並轉換為服務空間。

Looking towards 2025, we expect the global new equipment market to improve, despite the new equipment softness in China. We anticipate the combined Americas, EMEA and APAC new equipment markets should be up low single digits in units.

展望2025年，儘管中國新設備疲軟，但我們預期全球新設備市場將會改善。我們預期美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區新設備市場的總銷售量應會出現較低的個位數成長。

China remains a question mark, but at this point, we currently anticipate a decline somewhere in the range of 5% to 10% in units, clearly dependent on the impact of government stimulus measures, overall across all regions we currently anticipate a sequential improvement in new equipment market growth rates next year versus this year's rates.

中國仍然是一個問號，但目前我們預計單位數量下降將在 5% 至 10% 之間，這顯然取決於政府刺激措施的影響，總體而言，我們目前預計所有地區的經濟成長將連續改善明年新設備市場成長率與今年的成長率。

On the service side, the installed base should continue to grow at around mid-single digits a clear demonstration of the resiliency of the industry. We anticipate the modernization market will continue to grow strongly in all four regions.

在服務方面，安裝量應繼續以中個位數左右增長，這清楚地表明了該行業的彈性。我們預計所有四個地區的現代化市場將繼續強勁成長。

Turning to our financial outlook for 2024, we now expect sales of approximately $14.2 billion with organic sales growth of approximately 1.5%. Service remains strong across all lines of business for both growth and profit, and Christina will give more color on this in a moment.

談到 2024 年的財務展望，我們目前預計銷售額約為 142 億美元，有機銷售額成長約 1.5%。所有業務線的服務在成長和利潤方面都保持強勁，克里斯蒂娜稍後將對此進行更多闡述。

Our sales outlook is at the low end of our prior expectations, with the change driven specifically by China new equipment. Adjusted operating profit is now expected to be up approximately $105 million at actual currency and up about $140million at constant currency with the change for prior outlook, similarly driven by China new equipment.

我們的銷售前景處於先前預期的低端，這項變​​更主要是由中國新設備推動的。由於先前展望的變化，調整後的營業利潤目前預計按實際貨幣計算將增加約 1.05 億美元，按固定匯率計算將增加約 1.4 億美元，這同樣受到中國新設備的推動。

We anticipate adjusted EPS to come in around $3, an $0.85, up approximately 9%, driven by strong operational performance and the benefit from a lower share count and continuous improvement in the reduction of our tax rate. We expected adjusted free cash flow to come within a range of $1.4billion to $1.5 billion and plan to return the cash we generate this tier to shareholders through dividends and $1 billion in share repurchases.

我們預計調整後每股收益將達到 3 美元左右，即 0.85 美元，增長約 9%，這得益於強勁的營運業績以及股份數量減少和稅率降低的持續改進所帶來的好處。我們預計調整後的自由現金流將在 14 億美元至 15 億美元之間，並計劃透過股息和 10 億美元的股票回購將我們在這一層產生的現金返還給股東。

We continue to make steady progress with our uplift program, which is helping to drive a more efficient organization and deliver more value to customers while mitigating some challenges we face for the past few quarters throughout the globe.

我們的提升計畫持續取得穩定進展，有助於提高組織效率，為客戶提供更多價值，同時緩解我們過去幾季在全球面臨的一些挑戰。

Overall, our service driven business model and overall company strategy remain on track, and we will continue to deliver value to shareholders, including the 9% EPS growth we anticipate this year.

總體而言，我們的服務驅動型業務模式和整體公司策略仍處於正軌，我們將繼續為股東創造價值，包括我們預計今年 9% 的每股盈餘成長。

Now let me hand it to Christina to discuss our outlook in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給克里斯蒂娜，更詳細地討論我們的觀點。

Thank you, Judy. Taking a more detailed look at our outlook and starting with sales on a slide 9. Total on organic sales are expected to be up approximately 1.5%, driven by solid performance in our share of the segment. We expect new equipment organics has to be down mid to high single digits, driven by a decline in China due to the challenging market conditions that Judy mentioned earlier.

謝謝你，朱迪。更詳細地了解我們的前景，從幻燈片 9 中的銷售情況開始。由於我們在該領域所佔份額的穩健表現，有機銷售額預計將增長約 1.5%。我們預計，由於朱迪之前提到的充滿挑戰的市場條件，中國市場的下滑推動了新設備的有機率必須下降到中高個位數。

Total Asia is expected to be down high teams in 2024 with a strong high single digit growth in Asia Pacific, more than offset by severe declines in China. Our outlook for the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific are unchanged from the prior guidance. Overall, the new equipment segment has performed weaker than we expected this year, driven by the market situation in China.

預計 2024 年，亞洲道達爾將大幅削減高團隊規模，亞太地區將實現強勁的個位數高成長，但被中國的嚴重下滑所抵消。我們對美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的展望與先前的指導一致。整體而言，受中國市場情勢的推動，今年新設備領域的表現弱於我們的預期。

However, the rest of the world has performed better than we projected at the start of the year and we anticipate the combined growth of Americas, EMEA and APAC, the mid single digit up for 2024. Our service segment continues to perform quite well and has been largely in line with our expectations as we have gone through the year.

然而，世界其他地區的表現比我們年初的預期要好，我們預計美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的綜合成長將在 2024 年實現中個位數成長。我們的服務部門繼續表現良好，並且基本上符合我們這一年的預期。

In line with our prior guidance, we anticipate service organic sales to grow a bit more than 6.5%. This includes maintenance and repair growth of approximately 6% and modernization growth of at least 9% at or above the high end of our prior range. We anticipate continued modernization sales momentum in the fourth quarter due to the timing of project execution from the backlog.

根據我們先前的指引，我們預期服務有機銷售額將成長 6.5% 以上。這包括約 6% 的維護和維修成長以及至少 9% 的現代化成長，達到或高於我們先前範圍的高端。由於積壓項目的執行時間安排，我們預計第四季度現代化銷售動能將持續。

We expect these to be the third year in a row of service organic sales growth of 6% or better, offsetting the severe headwinds we have faced in the equipment over the past years and demonstrating the power and resiliency of our business model.

我們預計，這將是服務有機銷售連續第三年增長 6% 或更高，抵消過去幾年我們在設備方面面臨的嚴重阻力，並展示我們業務模式的力量和彈性。

Turning to slide 10, at constant currency operating profit is expected to grow approximately $140 million. In service, performance this year has been excellent year to date, and we expect operating profit margin plus and approximately 75 basis points for the full year driven by volume productivity aided by uplift and continued solid pricing.

轉向投影片 10，以固定匯率計算，營業利潤預計將成長約 1.4 億美元。在服務方面，今年迄今的業績表現非常出色，我們預計全年營業利潤率將增加約 75 個基點，這得益於銷量提高和持續穩定的定價的推動。

For new equipment, operating profit margins have now expected to contract 50 basis points versus the prior year. Tailwinds from productivity, including benefits from uplift, commodities and pricing from the backlog out of being more than offset by volume and mix headwinds emanating from lower China new equipment sales, as a result of continued market weakness.

對於新設備，目前預計營業利潤率將比上年收縮 50 個基點。來自生產力的推動，包括來自積壓的提升、大宗商品和定價的好處，但由於市場持續疲軟，中國新設備銷售下降帶來的銷售和混合阻力足以抵消這一影響。

So the updated outlook assumes a similar Q4 organic growth rate in new equipment through what we saw in the third quarter. And on constant foreign currency basis, we would anticipate a similar dollar decline in new equipment profit of around $20million to $25 million with a slightly larger headwind at actual currency. We expect overall adjusted operating profit margin expansion of 70 basis points driven by service performance.

因此，更新後的展望假設新設備的第四季有機成長率與我們在第三季看到的相似。在固定匯率基礎上，我們預期新設備利潤也會出現類似的美元下降，約 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元，而實際貨幣的阻力稍大。我們預計，在服務績效的推動下，整體調整後營業利益率將擴大 70 個基點。

The update to our outlook is exclusively driven by the change in new agreements as driven by China volumes. And we are mitigating these headwinds through service volumes for productivity and pricing.

我們對前景的更新完全是由中國銷售推動的新協議的變化所推動的。我們正在透過提高生產力和定價的服務量來緩解這些不利因素。

Turning to cash flow, we expect to achieve adjusted free cash flow in the range of $1.4billion to $1.5 billion. The lower operating profit outlook, coupled with fewer down payments from China new equipment or that volumes are impacting our expected cash flow for the year. We continue to focus on what we can control to improve working capital and we expect strong free cash flow ramp up in Q4 similar to last year.

談到現金流，我們預計調整後的自由現金流將在 14 億美元至 15 億美元之間。較低的營業利潤前景，加上中國新設備的首付減少或銷量減少，正在影響我們今年的預期現金流。我們繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情來改善營運資金，我們預計第四季度的自由現金流將與去年類似，強勁成長。

Moving to the 2024 EPS bridge on slide 11, we expect to deliver adjusted EPS of approximately $3 and $0.85. This is $0.31 of EPS growth versus the prior year or approximately 9%, largely driven by operational performance. At constant currency we expect approximately $0.36 of operating profit growth outside of China, while we anticipate China to be a headwind of about $0.10 to $0.15 for the year.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的 2024 年每股收益橋樑，我們預計調整後每股收益約為 3 美元和 0.85 美元。與前一年相比，每股收益成長了 0.31 美元，約 9%，這主要是由營運績效推動的。以固定匯率計算，我們預計中國以外地區的營業利潤成長約為 0.36 美元，而我們預計中國今年的阻力約為 0.10 至 0.15 美元。

Reductions in the effective tax rate, and a lower share count are anticipated to offset headwinds from higher interest expense and foreign change. Minority interest expense naturally move slower due to the weaker China performance.

有效稅率的降低和股票數量的減少預計將抵消利息支出增加和匯率變化帶來的不利影響。由於中國表現疲軟，少數股東利息支出自然放緩。

Now will give you some additional commentary on two areas, first China and second, how we see 2025 shaping up at this point. On China, although we have largely been able to mitigate the significant China impact on adjusted EPS year to date, in our EPS bridge was included a small range of China outcomes to give some additional color due to the continued uncertainty in the markets.

現在我們將就兩個領域進行一些補充評論，第一是中國，第二是我們如何看待 2025 年的發展。在中國方面，儘管我們基本上能夠減輕今年迄今為止中國對調整後每股收益的重大影響，但我們的每股收益橋中包含了一小部分中國結果，以因市場持續的不確定性而提供一些額外的色彩。

As we exited Q3 the new equipment backlog in China is down mid teens and the book-and-ship business remains under pressure. While Mark, has been said on the policy front in terms of possible as stimulus in the region, and we remain optimistic for a policy follow through, as we see it here today, unless the region begins to accelerate into year end, we could see it being up once of $0.05 additional headwind to EPS.

隨著第三季的結束，中國的新設備積壓已下降到十幾歲左右，預訂和運輸業務仍面臨壓力。雖然馬克在政策方面表示該地區可能採取刺激措施，但我們對政策的後續實施仍然持樂觀態度，正如我們今天在這裡看到的那樣，除非該地區開始加速進入年底，否則我們可能會看到每股收益增加0.05 美元的阻力。

Lower China volumes and mix impacts naturally puts pressure on the exit run rate margin for the equipment into 2025. Now let me talk a bit about 2025, starting with service. We expect the service business to continue performing well next year with mid-single digit or better top-line growth and continued margin expansion.

中國銷售下降和混合影響自然會對 2025 年設備的退出運行率帶來壓力。現在讓我談談 2025 年，從服務開始。我們預計服務業務明年將繼續表現良好，實現中個位數或更好的收入成長以及持續的利潤率擴張。

While we expect to achieve approximately 75 basis points of margin expansion this year, we said at our Investor Day in February, the service business over the medium term would achieve 50 basis points or slightly more of margin expansion annually.

雖然我們預計今年的利潤率將實現約 75 個基點的擴張，但我們在 2 月的投資者日表示，中期服務業務將實現每年 50 個基點或略多的利潤率擴張。

So as about the two years combined, we would expect to be somewhere between 100 and 125 basis points of margin expansion within the service segment. For new equipment as in the past few years, excluding China, we feel good about the rest of the world combined growing low single digits or better in 2025.

因此，就兩年而言，我們預計服務領域的利潤率將擴大 100 至 125 個基點。對於過去幾年的新設備（不包括中國），我們對 2025 年世界其他地區的綜合成長較低個位數或更好的情況感到滿意。

While there's still a few months ago, which will determine exactly the orders in Q4 and our ending backlog heading into 2025, if we assume that the backlog and this year down low single digits, that would be a fairly good starting guidepost for new equipment top line in 2025.

雖然還有幾個月的時間，這將準確地確定第四季度的訂單以及我們進入2025 年的最終積壓訂單，但如果我們假設今年的積壓訂單數量下降到低個位數，那麼這將是新設備的一個相當好的起點2025年上線。

As Judy mentioned earlier, China remains uncertain for the new equipment segment for both sales and profit. As without policy change and a stimulus action, we would expect our second-half margin rate in new equipment rate to persist throughout 2025.

正如朱迪之前提到的，中國新設備領域的銷售和利潤仍存在不確定性。如果沒有政策變更和刺激行動，我們預計下半年新設備利潤率將持續到 2025 年。

The monthly rate with the new agreement is being impacted by the meaningful shift in regional mix, with more than 75% of the new equipment revenue now being driven by sales outside of China, we will continue to work to offset the headwinds that this process through productivity while continuing to drive the uplift program and rightsizing our cost for aligned with the current market conditions.

新協議的月費率受到區域結構重大轉變的影響，目前超過 75% 的新設備收入是由中國以外的銷售推動的，我們將繼續努力抵消這一過程中遇到的阻力生產力，同時繼續推動提升規劃並調整我們的成本以適應當前的市場狀況。

In closing, our results from the first nine months demonstrate our ability to deliver on our service-driven business model. We continue to focus on what we can control, including growing our portfolio, executing on our expanding modernization backlog and continuing to drive productivity throughout the organization, including uplift initiatives.

最後，我們前九個月的業績證明了我們實現服務驅動型業務模式的能力。我們繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情，包括擴大我們的產品組合、執行不斷擴大的現代化積壓工作以及繼續提高整個組織的生產力，包括提升計劃。

We continue to drive results through the remaining of the year to set us up well to perform in 2025. With that, Krista, please open the line for questions. Thank you.

我們將在今年剩餘的時間裡繼續取得成果，為 2025 年的表現做好準備。那麼，克里斯塔，請打開提問線。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning, and hello as well. Thanks for the details on FY25, Cristina. So it seems that China fundamentals are starting to really deteriorate.

謝謝。早上好，也你好。感謝克里斯蒂娜提供有關 2025 財年的詳細資訊。因此，中國的基​​本面似乎開始真正惡化。

And I'm just wondering if the message has been you pricing pressure will offset by deflation repo cost, if the OE pressure we're seeing right now, whether that's really a function of lower China margins will just the mix of China. And I'm just wondering if the pricing is getting rational and whether there's a change in strategy yield over the next year, one or two years within China?

我只是想知道，消息是否是定價壓力將被通貨緊縮回購成本所抵消，如果我們現在看到的原廠壓力，這是否真的是中國利潤率較低的結果，將只是中國的混合因素。我只是想知道定價是否變得合理，以及中國境內明年、一年或兩年的策略收益率是否會改變？

Yeah. Thanks, Nigel, and good morning. Listen the new equipment market in China remains weak, it was down 15% this quarter, similar to second quarter and we think that's how the year is actually going to finish. And we are constantly trading off volume, price, and liquidity to make sure that our China business remains strong as we go into 2025, we now believe that China segment for 2024 will be at about 415,000 units.

是的。謝謝，奈傑爾，早安。聽著，中國的新設備市場仍然疲軟，本季下降了 15%，與第二季類似，我們認為今年實際上將如此結束。我們不斷權衡銷售、價格和流動性，以確保我們的中國業務在進入 2025 年時保持強勁，我們現在認為 2024 年中國業務的銷量將約為 415,000 輛。

As we've looked and as we've shared our new equipment revenue is down fairly significantly double digit. Our service revenue is flattish to up slightly on our portfolio units are still up high teens. So the pivot and the strategy we've been making to services working about a third of our revenue now in China is service.

正如我們所看到的以及我們所分享的，我們的新設備收入大幅下降了兩位數。我們的服務收入持平或略有上升，因為我們的投資組合單位仍處於高位。因此，我們目前在中國制定的服務重點和策略是服務，占我們收入的三分之一。

And as you heard Cristina say, were down $400 million in revenue year to date in China, we are going to put in our guide, we're going to be down by $0.5 billion of revenue in China this year and still have organic top line growth for the company.

正如克里斯蒂娜所說，今年迄今為止我們在中國的收入減少了 4 億美元，我們將在我們的指南中指出，今年我們在中國的收入將減少 5 億美元，但仍然有有機收入為公司的成長。

Now when we look structurally at China, our new equipment total contribution is really only down a couple of points. So we are still seeing the deflationary environment were optimizing commodities to the best of our ability and really trying for and focused on delivering come down a few points, even though pricing remains competitive, it has always been competitive in China on new equipment.

現在，當我們從結構上看中國時，我們的新設備總貢獻實際上只下降了幾個百分點。因此，我們仍然看到通貨緊縮環境正在盡我們最大的能力優化商品，並真正努力並專注於交付下降幾個點，儘管價格仍然具有競爭力，但在中國的新設備上始終具有競爭力。

We are not seeing irrational pricing we're seeing sustained competitive pricing and 415,000 unit market to me is still ahead healthy market in terms of segments size for us to secure the business we want. The Mod market is growing and is picking up nicely. And you'll see us some drive Mod margin expansion as we grow scale. There are Mod orders year to date in China are positive.

我們沒有看到不合理的定價，我們看到的是持續的競爭性定價，而且就細分市場規模而言，415,000 套的市場對我來說仍然領先於健康市場，有助於我們獲得我們想要的業務。Mod 市場正在成長並且正在良好地回升。隨著我們規模的擴大，您會看到我們在一定程度上推動了 Mod 利潤率的擴張。今年迄今為止，中國的 Mod 訂單數量是正面的。

October was very positive, but for the quarter it was not at the level we wanted and there was a little bit of resistance as people were waiting to understand more about the equipment renewal incentives that had been announced early in the quarter with not a lot of specificity.

十月非常積極，但就本季度而言，它沒有達到我們想要的水平，並且存在一些阻力，因為人們正在等待了解有關本季度初宣布的設備更新激勵措施的更多信息，但沒有太多特異性。

We're seeing that pickup that was prior to the bigger stimulus that was announced later in the quarter. Our service units are up yet again high teens service revenue was up 1%. So our business in China is reshaping. It's, if you think, down $0.5billion, $500 million.

我們看到這種回升是在本季稍後宣布的更大刺激措施之前出現的。我們的服務單位再次成長，青少年服務收入成長了 1%。所以我們在中國的業務正在重塑。如果你想的話，那就是減少了 5 億美元、5 億美元。

That's the lowest revenue we've had in China since we've reported in 2017, which was in our Form-10. We did a look back three years.

這是自 2017 年 Form-10 報告以來我們在中國的最低收入。我們回顧了三年。

And yet at the contribution, even that our China team has made it is not at that level of drop. So we're watching mix carefully. Obviously, the other three regions are adding significantly to the mix and the margin and the top line on new equipment and service business, including in China, is doing very well.

但就貢獻而言，即使是我們中國團隊的貢獻，也沒有達到那麼下降的程度。所以我們正在仔細觀察混合。顯然，其他三個地區的組合和利潤率以及新設備和服務業務的收入（包括中國）都表現出色。

Okay. That's great, Judy. That's great color. Thanks very much. Just a quick one on service with the flat sales margins some years, obviously have kept firm service outlook unchanged was up your plan for the quarter. And maybe just to obviously, there's a lot of mix would have been asked. So just maybe just a bit more color on terms of the operating leverage within services and whether the labor inflation is actually getting a bit worse for in terms of impacting the margins perhaps?

好的。太好了，朱迪。那顏色真棒。非常感謝。只是快速介紹一下服務，幾年來銷售利潤率持平，顯然保持堅定的服務前景不變是您本季度的計劃。也許很明顯，人們會提出很多混合的要求。因此，也許只是在服務業的營運槓桿方面多一點色彩，以及勞動力通膨是否實際上在影響利潤方面變得更糟？

Hi, Nigel. This is Christina. So on service margins they are coming broadly in line with expectations. And in fact, when you see sequentially, they are going off up 24.7% in Q2, 24.8% in Q4. And this is thanks to the flow through of Woodward volumes, and that there was a good ramp up of service as in the quarter coming mainly from the timing of repair and modernization.

嗨，奈傑爾。這是克里斯蒂娜。因此，就服務利潤率而言，它們與預期基本一致。事實上，當你按順序查看時，它們在第二季度增長了 24.7%，在第四季度增長了 24.8%。這要歸功於伍德沃德的流量，以及本季服務的良好成長，主要來自維修和現代化的時機。

And we also have a very good performance in price. Price was up in the quarter, approximately four point, excluding the impact of mix and churn. And we also have productivity and Uplift measure, and all of these is compensating wage inflation that is broadly in line with expectation. So I would say very steady state performance in service, in line with expectations, and these can be an opportunity for Q4 as we see modernization is ramping up very nicely.

而且我們在價格上也有非常好的表現。排除混合和客戶流失的影響，本季價格上漲約四個百分點。我們還有生產力和提升措施，所有這些都在補償與預期大致相符的薪資通膨。因此，我想說，服務的表現非常穩定，符合預期，這可能是第四季度的機會，因為我們看到現代化正在快速推進。

Yes, Nigel, the other thing, if you recall, last quarter, we anticipated repair picking up in the second half of the year and Mod conversion kicking up in the second half of the year. Both of those contributing nicely repair was up 10% was really led by the Americas.

是的，奈傑爾，另一件事，如果你還記得的話，上個季度，我們預計維修將在今年下半年開始，模組轉換將在下半年開始。兩個地區的修復工作均增加了 10%，其中美洲地區的增幅最大。

And Mod, if you look at it really how we've performed on this on the item on the delivery side of Mod, we were over 13% in terms of sales, that's going to continue here with our backlog up 12%. We keep anticipating repair to come to normalize. So like a point above maintenance, but it looks like we'll wrap this year and fourth quarter again with strong repair similar to third quarter.

Mod，如果你仔細看看我們在 Mod 交付方面的表現，我們的銷售額超過 13%，我們的積壓訂單將繼續增長 12%。我們一直期待修復工作能夠正常化。就像維護之上的一點，但看起來我們將再次以類似於第三季的強勁修復來結束今年和第四季。

Okay. Thanks Judy.

好的。謝謝朱迪。

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeffrey Sprague，垂直研究夥伴。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and hope everyone is well. Hey, Judy, can you also just drill a little bit in a Mod China and I guess the specific angle on my question is, if we think about Mod globally or certainly rest the world, right? We're thinking historically a little bit below new equipment, the trajectory of both new equipment, as you realign the business for the playbook to exist in the same way, shape or form in China?

謝謝。大家早安，希望大家一切都好。嘿，朱迪，你能不能也稍微鑽研一下中國的 Mod，我想我的問題的具體角度是，如果我們在全球範圍內考慮 Mod，或者肯定是世界其他地方，對嗎？當您重新調整業務以使劇本以相同的方式、形狀或形式在中國存在時，我們會從歷史角度思考新設備、兩種新設備的軌跡？

Yeah, it does, Jeff and good morning. So Mod margins in China look attractive like new equipment margins during the China relative to the rest of the world. So and we're seeing that play out this year as well. It's early days for Mod in China obviously, a younger portfolio for the portfolio that will accelerate and grow more rapidly when you think about CAGER versus anywhere else in the world.

是的，確實如此，傑夫，早安。因此，與世界其他地區相比，中國的模組利潤看起來很有吸引力，就像中國的新設備利潤一樣。所以我們今年也看到了這種情況的發生。顯然，Mod 在中國還處於早期階段，與世界其他任何地方相比，當你考慮 CAGER 時，該產品組合將加速成長並更快發展。

So we're in a unique position to do Mod and industrialize Mod with our kits on from the start, there's not a lot of old units to modernize and Mod. So most of these are our Gen2 units, which means we're going to get the benefits of scale commodities.

因此，我們處於一個獨特的位置，可以從一開始就使用我們的套件進行 Mod 和工業化 Mod，沒有很多舊單位需要現代化和 Mod。因此，其中大部分是我們的第二代設備，這意味著我們將獲得規模商品的好處。

We are already handling Gen3 Mod on our Gen3 line in our factories in China, very optimistic about Mod in China in terms of available segment in terms of demand, In terms of rapid growth. And again, what we've seen early orders in October and Mod is very promising.

我們已經在中國工廠的 Gen3 生產線上處理 Gen3 Mod，我們對中國的 Mod 在可用細分市場、需求和快速成長方面非常樂觀。再說一遍，我們在 10 月看到的早期訂單和 Mod 都非常有希望。

This equipment renewal program that I spoke about, just to give you a little context, was announced, I think, in then July time, it was for everything from appliances to cars, but elevators and escalators were included, which we thought was very important.

我所說的這個設備更新計劃，只是為了給大家提供一些背景信息，已經宣布了，我認為，在當時的七月份，它涉及從電器到汽車的所有東西，但包括電梯和自動扶梯，我們認為這非常重要。

The challenges, obviously, with all these getting the rules out locally and that has taken a little time. And the reason why our Mod orders weren't as strong as they needed to be in the third quarter, you're going to see Mod bounced back nicely. We've already seen it in October In China, more significant Mod orders as we came into this quarter globally are Mod orders were up for seven or eight quarters, double digit.

顯然，挑戰在於，所有這些都需要在當地制定規則，這需要一些時間。為什麼我們的 Mod 訂單在第三季度沒有達到所需的強勁水平，你會看到 Mod 很好地反彈。我們已經在 10 月看到了這一點，在中國，進入本季度時，全球範圍內更重要的 Mod 訂單是 Mod 訂單連續七、八個季度增長了兩位數。

You will see a return to double digit in the fourth quarter and then the rest of the world, we saw some timing issues in Mod in the third quarter in terms of some major projects, there's a move to the fourth quarter, but we expect those to come in. And we did have a slight compare with a couple of projects in the Middle East from Q3 last year that were pretty significant Mod projects.

你會看到第四季度恢復兩位數，然後是世界其他地區，我們在第三季度的 Mod 中看到了一些重大項目的一些時間問題，有一個轉移到第四季度，但我們預計這些進來。我們確實與去年第三季中東的幾個非常重要的 Mod 專案進行了輕微比較。

So we'll be back to double digit in the fourth quarter, which means the back backlog remains strong going into next year. And I think what you've now seen as we've proven the conversion, the Mod margin for the third quarter in a row globally was better than the new equipment margin.

因此，我們將在第四季度回到兩位數，這意味著明年的積壓仍然強勁。我認為您現在所看到的，我們已經證明了轉換，全球連續第三季的模組利潤率優於新設備利潤率。

So the strategy we couldn't place last year to industrialize Mod we're seeing that take hold and we're seeing Mod margins now greater than new equipment, and we do have line of sight to the 10% Mod margins we anticipate in the medium term.

因此，我們去年無法實施的 Mod 工業化策略，我們現在看到了，Mod 的利潤率現在比新設備還要高，而且我們確實看到了我們預期的 10% Mod 利潤率。

And then just really big picture on China it as we stuck their growth going from, call 650,000 units to 415,000 of which characterizes are still healthy, I just wonder like big picture though, is the right number. The second biggest market in the world is like India 75,000, right. So if China is overbuilt than the population is shrinking because of that number just to actually grow lower were a number of additional years.

然後，關於中國的真正大局，當我們將其增長從 650,000 輛增加到 415,000 輛時，其中的特徵仍然是健康的，我只是想知道大局是正確的數字。世界第二大市場是印度，有 75,000 人，對吧。因此，如果中國建設過度，那麼人口就會減少，因為這個數字實際上會在未來幾年內減少。

I think there's a potential for it to grind lower, as you say, Jeff, but it's going to grind lower at a lower rate. You've taken a third of the volume out from 650 to 415 and next year when we are looking at again, without stimulus impact down 5% to 10%. What that means is we're are actually going to see sequential growth improvement in new equipment in '25 at Otis over '24 because of the China, not decay are decreasing as much as it did this year.

我認為它有可能會降低，正如你所說，傑夫，但它會以較低的速度降低。你已經把三分之一的數量從 650 減少到 415，明年當我們再次考慮時，沒有刺激影響，下降 5% 到 10%。這意味著我們實際上將看到奧的斯 25 年的新設備比 24 年的連續成長有所改善，因為中國，而不是衰退像今年那樣減少。

So when we look at the comparison sit here this time next year, we actually and we'll give you the guide clearly in late January with all the specifics. But we actually see sequential top line growth improvement in '25. We're going to see it in service and we're going to see it in new equipment.

因此，當我們明年這個時候在這裡進行比較時，我們實際上會在一月底為您提供包含所有具體細節的清晰指南。但我們實際上看到 25 年營收連續成長。我們將看到它投入使用，我們將在新設備中看到它。

Great. Thank you. Appreciate it.

偉大的。謝謝。欣賞它。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. May I just had one clarification on the fourth quarter operating profit dynamics. So I think you've guided the full year up about 1$40 million at constant currency that's on a slide 11 and 10. And then I think the nine months was up $96 million on slide 20. So you have this $40 million plus increase year on year in Q4.

嗨，早安。我想對第四季營業利潤動態做一個澄清。因此，我認為按照幻燈片 11 和 10 上的固定貨幣計算，您指導全年增長約 1 4000 萬美元。然後我認為幻燈片 20 上的 9 個月增加了 9600 萬美元。因此，第四季度同比增長了 4000 萬美元。

But I think new equipment down [20], [30] in Q4. So it's of a bigger uplift in service. It looks like just maybe help us understand what's driving that. And it looks like the general seasonality in the Q4 guide is a bit stronger than your normal seasonality on profits.

但我認為第四季新設備會下降 [20]、[30]。所以這是服務方面的一個更大的提升。看起來也許可以幫助我們理解是什麼推動了這一點。看起來第四季度指南中的總體季節性比正常的利潤季節性要強一些。

Hi, Julian. This is Christina. And it's a very good analysis. So as you have said yesterday that we have grown operating profit at constant currency of about $96 million, which means margin expansion of$ 60 million.

嗨，朱利安。這是克里斯蒂娜。這是一個非常好的分析。正如您昨天所說，以固定匯率計算，我們的營業利潤成長了約 9,600 萬美元，這意味著利潤率擴大了 6,000 萬美元。

And when you look into Q4, we expect service to continue performing very strong line to continue growing on the back of growth, the ramp-up of free bet on modernization and a good flow through off an operating profit. We say additional margin expansion. Margin is expected in service to be above 25% in Q4.

當你回顧第四季度時，我們預計服務將繼續表現非常強勁，在成長、現代化免費投入的增加以及營運利潤的良好流動的支持下繼續增長。我們說額外的利潤擴張。預計第四季服務利潤率將超過 25%。

But it is not driven by seasonality, just driven by the performance of execution ramping up the top line and continually working on productivity. On the other side, on new equipment, we expect Q4 to be more or less of same level on the topline decline as in Q3 approximately minus 8%.

但這不是由季節性驅動的，而是由提高收入和不斷提高生產力的執行績效所驅動的。另一方面，在新設備方面，我們預計第四季的營收下降幅度將與第三季大致相同，約為-8%。

And that means a flow through into operating profit with operating profit margin below 5% because we have then volume on the mix effect. And additionally, we see price and commodities gradually fading out in Q4. Overall, we compensate the decline in the equipment with a very strong performance in service in order to deliver, as you rightly said, approximately $40 million, $50 million operating profit growth in the quarter.

這意味著流入營業利潤的營業利益率低於 5%，因為我們有混合效應的交易量。此外，我們看到價格和大宗商品在第四季逐漸淡出。總體而言，我們透過非常強勁的服務表現來彌補設備的下降，以便如您所說，在本季度實現約 4000 萬美元、5000 萬美元的營業利潤增長。

Yeah, that 25% rates is very achievable based on everything we're seeing, Julian.

是的，根據我們所看到的一切，25% 的利率是非常可實現的，朱利安。

Thanks very much for that detail. And then maybe for the 2025 equipment margin outlook, Judy, you talked about the new equipment margin when you're thinking about next year and realize it's early, but a good place holder might be margins next year in new equipment similar to this second half.

非常感謝這個細節。然後，也許對於2025 年設備利潤率展望，朱迪，當您考慮明年並意識到現在還為時過早時，您談到了新設備利潤率，但一個好的佔位符可能是明年新設備的利潤率，類似下半年。

So I think it's the third quarter you're running at the third and fourth quarter. You're running a mid-single digits. So yeah, 6% Q3 and it sounds like 5% or less in Q4 for new equipment.

所以我認為這是第三季度，你在第三季和第四季運行。你正在運行一個中位數個位數。所以，是的，第三季新設備的成長率為 6%，第四季聽起來像是 5% 或更少。

So [five-ish] percent margin in 2025 new equipment as it looks today. Just help us understand what's that assuming maybe for pricing and you planning or starting to enact further cost-out measures. There's the uplift program working through in its second year. Anything happening on there to try to get those off or new equipment margins.

因此，從今天的情況來看，2025 年新設備的利潤率約為 5%。請幫助我們了解定價的假設以及您計劃或開始製定進一步的成本削減措施。提升計劃已進入第二年。為了減少這些或新設備的利潤而發生的任何事情。

Yeah. Without guiding, I think you're very accurate in terms of what you're seeing for '25 new equipment margins, again driven by the impact of mix as China contribution is less, and the rest of the world is now, as Cristina said, over 75% of the revenue from new equipment. Just so you get a sense, China is going to finish this year all in a little over 13% of our revenue.

是的。在沒有指導的情況下，我認為您對「25 新設備利潤率」的預測是非常準確的，正如克里斯蒂娜所說，這又是受到混合影響的推動，因為中國的貢獻較小，而世界其他地區現在的貢獻較小，超過75%的收入來自新設備。你可以感覺到，今年中國市場將占我們收入的 13% 多一點。

So it's really changed the dynamic, but our uplift is on track. Last quarter, you saw we updated the outlook and the run rate, and that is holding well, and that will continue to deliver in 2025. And we've planned on that. Before I turn this over to Christina on maybe a little more color on why don't I just give you how to sales in the top line look for 2025.

所以這確實改變了動態，但我們的提升正在步入正軌。上個季度，您看到我們更新了前景和運行率，這一點保持良好，並將在 2025 年繼續實現。我們已經計劃好了。在我把這個問題交給克里斯蒂娜之前，我可能會再解釋為什麼我不直接告訴你如何在 2025 年實現營收成長。

So in new equipment, again, excluding China or new equipment backlog's up low single digits right now or new equipment backlogs down three total. And we'll see where the fourth quarter ends up in terms of orders on new equipment and top line, we'd expect low single digit growth next year for everywhere outside of China.

因此，在新設備方面，不包括中國或新設備積壓目前僅增加了低個位數，或新設備積壓總數下降了三位。我們將看到第四季度新設備訂單和營收的最終結果，我們預計明年中國以外的所有地區都將出現低個位數成長。

And China, we would expect, along the lines that we saw this year. But will we have to wait and see we haven't preprogrammed any stimulus, we're all waiting to see what happens in next week at the end of the week with the National People's Congress and we are prepared for the stimulus, whether it comes in new equipment or Mod, we have the capacity, we have capabilities both on our factory and in our field.

我們預計中國也會與今年看到的情況一樣。但我們是否必須等等看，我們還沒有預先制定任何刺激計劃，我們都在等著看下周全國人民代表大會本週末會發生什麼，我們已經為刺激計劃做好了準備，無論它是否到來新設備或改裝方面，我們有能力，我們在工廠和現場都有能力。

So new equipment all in the growth we think will be down low to mid-single digits. Some plus or minus where the backlog comes in at the end of the year on service top line, really really strong service portfolio growth. And if I could just take a minute, we talked about this 4.2% a lot, and we've had eight straight quarters or two years of that.

因此，我們認為新設備的成長將降至低至中個位數。年底服務頂線積壓的一些正負，確實非常強勁的服務組合成長。如果我能花一點時間，我們經常討論這個 4.2%，而且我們已經連續八個季度或兩年這樣了。

What I think it's important for everyone to understand is with the largest service portfolio in the globe at 2.3 million unit, it's growing at almost 2.4 million by year end. We're adding 25,000 units every quarter to our service portfolio.

我認為每個人都必須了解的是，全球最大的服務組合達到 230 萬台，到年底它的數量將增加近 240 萬台。我們每季都會在我們的服務組合中增加 25,000 台。

And as we shared at Investor Day, our average service customer has four units. So we're adding 25,000 customers, which is why do we have such faced in our service driven business model that drives maintenance, that drives repair, and it drives additional density for us that gives us productivity, all of which support again this high margin service business.

正如我們在投資者日分享的那樣，我們的服務客戶平均擁有四個單位。因此，我們增加了25,000 個客戶，這就是為什麼我們在服務驅動的業務模型中面臨這樣的問題，該模型推動維護、推動維修，並為我們帶來額外的密度，從而提高我們的生產力，所有這些都再次支持如此高的利潤率服務業務。

And with our retention rate at almost 94% is also then drives that continuous relationship for 15, 20,30 years that gives us the modernization business. So service next year as we look at maintenance and repair is going to be driven by that strong portfolio growth and very solid repair volumes.

我們的保留率接近 94%，這也推動了 15、20、30 年的持續關係，為我們帶來了現代化業務。因此，當我們考慮維護和維修時，明年的服務將受到強勁的產品組合成長和非常穩定的維修量的推動。

We've been getting price on service this year, as Cristina said, like for like pricing increased four points watching inflation, but we will get price next year. Will it be at the same level, depends where we are in the world with inflation, but we will get price on the maintenance side and the portfolio growth it will be a tailwind in '25.

正如克里斯蒂娜所說，今年我們已經獲得了服務價格，就像價格上漲了四個點一樣，因為通貨膨脹，但我們明年才會獲得價格。它是否會處於同一水平，取決於我們在世界上哪個地方有通貨膨脹，但我們將在維護方面獲得價格，並且投資組合增長將成為 25 年的順風車。

Repair volume, very strong. As I said, north of 10% growth, we still see solid repair backlog going into next year. Expect that to normalize what you've heard me say that every year. So but we do expect that to normalize and Mod, as we exit that right now, the third quarter backlog's up 12%, and were looking at 9%, high single digit plus.

修復量，非常強。正如我所說，除了 10% 的成長之外，我們仍然看到明年會有大量的維修積壓。希望這能讓你每年聽到我說的話正常化。所以，但我們確實預計這種情況會正常化並進行調整，因為我們現在就退出了，第三季積壓訂單增加了 12%，我們預計會成長 9%，高個位數以上。

That's what you should expect next year too, if not better, because the Mod backlogs growing. So I just wanted to give you some color on the portfolio itself and on the top line, which is why as we look out in '25 and even '26 beyond as we look at the medium term, this near term, new equipment in China doesn't get me concerned because we're still growing mid teen plus, if not high teen portfolio in China.

這也是你明年應該期待的，甚至更好，因為 Mod 的積壓正在增加。所以我只是想給大家介紹一下投資組合本身和營收情況，這就是為什麼當我們展望 25 年甚至 26 年之後的中期、近期中國的新設備時我並不擔心，因為我們在中國的青少年投資組合即使不是高中生，也仍在成長。

And the rest of the world is growing our portfolio low single digit. So we don't see that they're being a knock-on effect a few years out because we have time to work that we have time to do recaptures, and we are focused on improving our retention rates. Our conversion rates are doing much better in China and the like.

世界其他地區正在以低個位數的速度成長我們的投資組合。因此，我們沒有看到它們會在幾年後產生連鎖反應，因為我們有時間工作，我們有時間重新捕獲，並且我們專注於提高保留率。我們在中國等地區的轉換率要好得多。

Let me turn it over to Christina for you on any other comments on profit.

讓我將有關利潤的任何其他評論轉交給克里斯蒂娜。

Yeah. Thank you, Judy. And we commented yet on the profit side until had a very good analyses. So as you lead with copying them, the top line effect next year, low-single digit up. So that is sequentially is slightly better because of less decline or lower declining the equipment.

是的。謝謝你，朱迪。在進行非常好的分析之前，我們也對利潤方面進行了評論。因此，當你領先複製它們時，明年的營收將出現低個位數的成長。因此，由於設備下降較少或下降較低，因此順序稍好。

But now on the margin side, service will continue with margin expansion you'll recall that we set back in February in our Investor Day that service was going to well 50 basis point of of annual margin expansion. This year, we have over driven we are 75 basis point.

但現在在利潤方面，服務將繼續擴大利潤率，您會記得我們在 2 月份的投資者日設定了服務年度利潤率擴張的 50 個基點。今年，我們已經超額推動了 75 個基點。

When you put together '24 and '25, we expect margin expansion of around 100, 125 points in service. On the other side, the equipment, as you rightly said, we have the effect of volume, some makes it additionally, as I mentioned before as next year, that commodities and price tailwinds that we have benefited this year are going to gradually fade out.

當你把「24」和「25」放在一起時，我們預計利潤率將擴大約 100、125 個服務點。另一方面，設備，正如你所說，我們有數量的影響，有些還額外產生，正如我之前提到的明年，我們今年受益的大宗商品和價格順風將逐漸消失。

So all of these together would mean that the second half of the year margin rate is going to persist in 2025, and it would mean approximately 50 to 100 basis points of margin decline. But when you put everything together, we have a stronger service segment, a weaker new equipment. But overall operating profit is expected to grow mid-single digits next year.

因此，所有這些加在一起意味著下半年的利潤率將持續到 2025 年，這意味著利潤率將下降約 50 到 100 個基點。但當你把所有東西放在一起時，我們有一個更強大的服務部門，一個更弱的新設備。但明年整體營業利潤預計將成長中個位數。

That's Great. Thank you

那太棒了。謝謝

Joseph O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

約瑟夫‧奧戴，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you elaborate a little bit more on Americas and Europe and the growth that you're seeing in the backlog and price versus volume? And I think just as we consider multi-family pressure and office pressure, but the growth that you're seeing and an outlook for growth into next year? Trying to understand market versus a share gain and other factors at play?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。您能否詳細說明一下美洲和歐洲以及您在積壓訂單和價格與數量方面看到的增長？我認為，正如我們考慮多家庭壓力和辦公室壓力一樣，但您所看到的成長以及明年的成長前景如何？試圖了解市場與股票收益以及其他起作用的因素？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. Listen in the Americas, I'm really the first quarter. We're seeing really early projects moving forward again, with green shoots. We all know the indicators, ABI, and Dodge, I won't repeat them for you.

是的。謝謝，喬。在美洲聽，我真的是第一季。我們看到非常早期的項目再次向前推進，並出現了萌芽。指標、ABI、閃避我們都知道，我就不給大家重複了。

And I know we like to think some are leading, some are lagging. I think that you're going to see this all settle out over the next 12 to 18 months. We are definitely seeing improvement in the new equipment market segment in Q3 you saw orders were up 23%,we knew, we needed that.

我知道我們喜歡認為有些人領先，有些人落後。我認為在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，您將看到這一切都得到解決。我們確實看到第三季新設備市場的改善，訂單成長了 23%，我們知道，我們需要這樣。

We'd come back in the second half, and we delivered an actually in North America we increased our pricing. It was the best we did anywhere in third quarter it was low single digit, but it was the best anywhere in the quarter, in the world.

我們下半年回來了，實際上我們在北美提高了定價。這是我們在第三季做得最好的，雖然只有個位數，但它是本季世界上最好的。

Americas for the year, year to date were down 9.5% in orders. But if you eliminate that large infringe structure job we want in Canada in first quarter of '23. We have shown nice sequential growth quarter after quarter, and we're really seeing more new equipment market stability. And again, we get this from our sales teams as they're talking to customers. The sentiment has gotten a lot better after the Fed change the rates.

美洲地區今年迄今的訂單量下降了 9.5%。但是，如果你在 23 年第一季消除我們希望在加拿大進行的大型侵權結構工作。我們每個季度都表現出良好的連續成長，並且我們確實看到了更多新設備市場的穩定性。同樣，我們在銷售團隊與客戶交談時也得到了這一點。聯準會調整利率後，市場情緒明顯改善。

We've got a really strong backlog in the Americas, a good 18 months plus line of sight to perform, even though our backlog's down because our sales have been up significantly. Our new equipment sales in the Americas came in 6% for the quarter. It was harder than the prior low single digit -- mid-single digit for the full year we expect the fourth quarter to be mid-single digit as well.

我們在美洲的積壓訂單量非常大，儘管我們的積壓訂單量有所下降，但由於我們的銷售額大幅上升，我們的訂單量仍處於 18 個月以上。本季我們在美洲的新設備銷售額成長了 6%。這比之前的低個位數要困難——全年的中個位數，我們預計第四季也將是中個位數。

Service sales in the America portfolio was up low single digit repairs were great in the third quarter, about 10% through their year to date and we anticipate that continuing into the fourth quarter. Mod orders for the Americas were up mid-single digit, both in the quarter and year to date, we expect that to continue.

美國產品組合的服務銷售額成長幅度較低，第三季的維修情況非常好，今年迄今成長了約 10%，我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季。本季和今年迄今為止，美洲的改裝訂單均成長了中個位數，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

And Mod sales were up low teens for the quarter and year to date there were up high single digit. So we believe the Americas market, the market itself has stabilized and our performance is doing much better.

本季 Mod 銷售額成長了兩位數，而今年迄今則成長了個位數。所以我們相信美洲市場，市場本身已經穩定下來，我們的業績也做得更好。

And when we look at this is a little different commentary than you've heard last quarter. When we look at the different verticals this quarter, we still have had the best verticals were infrastructure and industrial buildings, but all of the verticals were up this quarter in North America, which as there is a real inflection point.

當我們看到這一點時，我們的評論與您上季度聽到的有些不同。當我們查看本季的不同垂直產業時，我們仍然擁有最好的垂直產業是基礎設施和工業建築，但本季北美的所有垂直產業均有所上升，這是一個真正的轉折點。

If I go to EMEA, what we're seeing in the market itself it's challenging, but we're performing very well. Middle East is doing very well, South Europe is strong, North Europe's a little weaker. Spain and Africa are doing very well. And even Central Europe for us this quarter did very well despite the market uncertainty and environment in Germany, we're seeing pressure in France, but our backlog in EMEA is solid.

如果我去歐洲、中東和非洲，我們會發現市場本身充滿挑戰，但我們的表現非常好。中東表現很好，南歐較強，北歐稍弱一些。西班牙和非洲表現非常好。儘管德國市場存在不確定性和環境，但即使是中歐，本季我們也表現得很好，我們在法國看到了壓力，但我們在歐洲、中東和非洲的積壓情況很穩定。

New equipment year-to-date is up 8%. So even though the quarter was down in orders, strong first half by EMEA the team is performing very well. Our 12-month rolling EMEA orders was up 7.8%, and I really believe we're outperforming the market there.

今年迄今的新設備成長了 8%。因此，儘管本季訂單有所下降，但歐洲、中東和非洲地區上半年表現強勁，但該團隊的表現非常出色。我們 12 個月的 EMEA 滾動訂單成長了 7.8%，我真的相信我們的表現優於那裡的市場。

Our backlog is up over last year in EMEA, and our Gen3, 60 product is rolling out fairly well. So a little different commentary this quarter inflection we're seeing in the Americas, and we're outperforming in EMEA in a challenging environment.

我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的積壓訂單比去年有所增加，而且我們的 Gen3, 60 產品的推出情況相當順利。因此，本季我們在美洲看到了一些不同的評論，而我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區在充滿挑戰的環境中表現出色。

That's really helpful commentary, and obviously, mixed trends that we've seen some leading indicators. So appreciate it. And then just wanted to ask on cost structure as it relates to China and you're thinking about market sizing moving forward, obviously, some of the build out that you did there to serve that market. But as you think about it today and the potential for volumes in this range for a while, how do you think about costs? Are those things we could hear more about as we go into next year.

這是非常有用的評論，顯然，我們已經看到了一些領先指標的混合趨勢。所以很欣賞它。然後只是想詢問與中國相關的成本結構，您正在考慮未來的市場規模，顯然，您在那裡所做的一些建設是為了服務該市場。但當您今天考慮這一問題以及一段時間內該範圍內的銷售潛力時，您如何看待成本？當我們進入明年時，我們會聽到更多關於這些事情。

You will definitely hear more about costs coming out in China and this is for two reasons. one, we would do this based on the market. But second, with our uplift program, we're changing the way we work to be more customer centric to have common processes everywhere to have the ability to actually continue to drive significant growth.

您肯定會聽到更多有關中國成本的信息，這有兩個原因。第一，我們會根據市場來做這件事。但其次，透過我們的提升計劃，我們正在改變我們的工作方式，更加以客戶為中心，在各地擁有共同的流程，從而有能力真正繼續推動顯著成長。

But in China, we're looking at everything from our operational footprint, we have moved our modernization into our new equipment factories. So any facilities that used to do modernization don't do that anymore. And we're obviously looking at our workforce I have to give Sally and the team incredible credit for operating under some pretty tough economic times right now.

但在中國，我們正在從我們的營運足跡著眼於一切，我們已經將現代化轉移到了我們的新設備工廠。因此，任何曾經進行現代化改造的設施都不再這樣做了。顯然，我們正在關注我們的員工隊伍，我必須對莎莉和團隊在當前經濟困難時期的運作給予難以置信的讚揚。

As I said, I think in my first answer, we're trying to balance rational volume with pricing and with our customers abilities to pay, that's what's really driving our cash guide coming down. We're not going to take business just for the sake of volume to fill factories or to keep the field gainfully employed.

正如我所說，我認為在我的第一個答案中，我們正在努力平衡合理的數量與定價以及客戶的支付能力，這才是真正推動我們的現金指南下降的原因。我們不會僅僅為了滿足工廠的數量或保持該領域的有酬就業而接受業務。

Were taking what we believe is smart business that will put us in a strong position to continue to grow our service business in China and get ready for that nascent Mod business to really take off. When I think about Mod in new equipment, where that crossover is going to happen yet.

我們正在進行我們認為明智的業務，這將使我們處於有利地位，繼續發展我們在中國的服務業務，並為新興的 Mod 業務真正起飛做好準備。當我想到新設備中的 Mod 時，交叉將會發生。

But when you think about what we need the price of a unit Mod, about the same price of a unit in new equipment everywhere in the globe, including China, where our Mod margins are highest. And so as that picks up right now, we have 415,000 units in the new equipment segment this year in China.

但是，當您考慮我們需要的單位 Mod 的價格時，全球各地新設備的單位價格大致相同，包括中國，我們的 Mod 利潤率最高。因此，隨著現在的成長，今年我們在中國的新設備領域擁有 415,000 台設備。

As that Mod market picks up. We will hit 415,000 units some time this decade, just as the Mod segment, when that's going to be, but we're actually going to have a larger market to serve in China and around the world than we have today.

隨著 Mod 市場的回升。這個十年的某個時候，我們的銷量將達到 415,000 台，就像 Mod 細分市場那樣，但我們實際上將在中國和世界各地擁有比現在更大的市場。

That's very interesting. Thank you.

這很有趣。謝謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

Thank you, and I appreciate all the color on China potential range of outcomes next year. But Judy, I would be interested in your perspective on the stimulus actions we've seen in tighter so for, anything more that you're offering that could come here in the coming weeks or months? It ultimately just what it means for China construction. Thank you.

謝謝，我很欣賞中國明年可能取得的成果範圍的所有色彩。但是朱迪，我對你對我們所看到的更嚴格的刺激行動的看法感興趣，因此，你在未來幾週或幾個月內可能會提供更多的建議嗎？這最終對中國建設意味著什麼。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Chris. Listen, we are encouraged by what's been announced to date. The key is going to be the implementation methods. The regulations, we're in a regulated environment and how the local governments use the potential liquidity, debt relief, all of that. The announcements that were made or positive give to us. It's now the how we believe the first indication of this. And we talk -- we have talked to the party secretaries because we're focused on economic development.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。聽著，我們對迄今為止所宣布的內容感到鼓舞。關鍵是實施方法。法規，我們處於受監管的環境中，以及地方政府如何利用潛在的流動性、債務減免等等。已發布或積極的公告給了我們。現在這是我們如何相信這一點的第一個跡象。我們與黨委書記進行了交談，因為我們專注於經濟發展。

We want to grow in China, and we will grow in China. Despite this $0.5billion of revenue. You will watch our service and our MOD business continued to grow, and we'll stabilize this new equipment business. Our early look is with the stimulus with the aging population, we think this is going to actually accelerate modernization more.

我們希望在中國發展，我們也會在中國發展。儘管有 5 億美元的收入。您將看到我們的服務和我們的 MOD 業務持續成長，我們將穩定這個新設備業務。我們早期的看法是人口老化的刺激，我們認為這實際上會進一步加速現代化。

It's going to allow with the 5,100 projects to get finished, which will give us more confidence in liquidity with some of our customers as well in our key accounts. But the first time we're going to know more, Chris, is there's a special meeting of the National People's Congress senior members next week within a readout next Friday, November 08.

這將使 5,100 個項目得以完成，這將使我們對一些客戶以及我們的主要客戶的流動性更有信心。但克里斯，我們第一次要了解的更多資訊是，下週全國人民代表大會高級成員將在 11 月 8 日下週五舉行特別會議。

So we'll see what happens there. I will be on the ground in China in November, I think, it's important to be able to talk to our customers to be able to talk to our colleagues and thank them for the dedication under this stressful time. And they are delivering when you think about the decline we've had in the top line and yet our focus on continuing to deliver for our customers and grow our service business.

所以我們會看看那裡會發生什麼。我將於 11 月前往中國，我認為能夠與我們的客戶交談，與我們的同事交談並感謝他們在這個壓力很大的時期所做的奉獻是很重要的。當你想到我們的收入下降，但我們專注於繼續為客戶提供服務並發展我們的服務業務時，他們正在兌現承諾。

So I think we'll all know more. We do not anticipate that impacting fourth quarter financials even if rules come out, if it does, I'll be happy to share that with you in our fourth quarter earnings, we see this more as a potential for '25. But in all the color, Christina and I have given you today because we're not going to guide for '25 yet. We have not in anticipated any positive impact of the stimulus on China.

所以我想我們都會知道更多。即使規則出台，我們預計也不會影響第四季度的財務狀況，如果確實如此，我很樂意在我們的第四季度收益中與您分享這一點，我們認為這更多的是 25 年的潛力。但克里斯蒂娜和我今天為你們帶來了所有的顏色，因為我們還不會為 25 歲的人提供指南。我們預計刺激計劃不會對中國產生任何正面影響。

So when we say down 5 to 10 next year for China, new equipment at the segment level, therefore for the units available in the market, that does not anticipate any stimulus, same with the modernization market and it's $10 million units available for service we added mid to our service growth this quarter was high teens.

因此，當我們說明年中國的細分市場新設備數量下降5 到10 時，因此對於市場上可用的設備而言，預計不會有任何刺激，與現代化市場相同，我們有1000 萬美元的設備可供維修。

So now in China were up to 425,000 units in our surface portfolio. That's still 4% share, we have plenty more we can recapture plenty more to convert. So we are hopeful, but we need to understand the implementation rules. And most importantly, our customers and the local governments need to do that.

目前，我們在中國的地面產品組合已達 425,000 台。這仍然是 4% 的份額，我們還有更多的份額可以重新奪回更多的份額來轉換。所以我們充滿希望，但我們需要了解實施規則。最重要的是，我們的客戶和地方政府需要這樣做。

Appreciate that. If I could just follow up on the Americas. You talked about customer better demand signals from customers, If we looked at the orders that America is obviously very sharp rate of change Q3 up 20% first half down 20. Are you starting to see the better customer demand in Q3 or is that of Q3 order number really just a function of comps in that improvement is really maybe your Q4 the '25 driver? Thank you.

很欣賞這一點。如果我能跟進美洲就好了。您談到了來自客戶的更好的需求訊號，如果我們看一下美國的訂單，顯然第三季的變化率非常急劇，上升了 20%，上半年下降了 20。您是否開始在第三季度看到更好的客戶需求，或者第三季度的訂單號碼實際上只是比較的函數，因為這種改進可能真的是您的第四季度 '25 的驅動力？謝謝。

There were certainly some counts. But I want to be clear about that. But we are seeing between proposal activity and we had a lot and you know, Chris, we get a down payment when we sign up in order everywhere in the world, but especially in the Americas, and it's not something that is really negotiable or that we get back in the project gets canceled. So our customers have that conviction that their projects going to go.

當然有一些計數。但我想澄清這一點。但我們在提案活動中看到，我們有很多，你知道，克里斯，當我們在世界各地按順序註冊時，我們會得到一筆首付，特別是在美洲，這不是真正可以協商的事情，或者是我們回到專案被取消的情況。因此，我們的客戶堅信他們的專案將會順利進行。

And we had a lot that we're just really close, but waiting -- I think waiting to hear what the Fed was doing, waiting to see what the economy was doing. But as for all the segments, we're talking commercial office, residential infrastructure and industrial to have turned positive in the market in the third quarter. It's more than counts.

我們已經非常接近了，但仍在等待——我認為等待聽到聯準會在做什麼，等待看看經濟在做什麼。但就所有細分市場而言，商業辦公室、住宅基礎設施和工業在第三季的市場表現都出現了積極的變化。這不僅僅是計數。

Our team is performing, and you can expect that positive performance regardless of comps, fourth quarter and into next year.

我們的團隊表現出色，無論第四季度和明年的業績如何，您都可以期待這種積極的表現。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan Chase.

派崔克鮑曼，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning, Judy, Cristina. Thanks for letting me squeeze in here. Just had on one, maybe two, but first one on free cash flow, the $1.4billion to $1.5 billion this year. Can you talk about what working capital drag embedded in that and parse that out in terms of drivers on maybe size, the China down payment drag you called out or anything else unusual depressing this year that should flip around next year to give you better growth.

嗨，早上好，朱迪，克里斯蒂娜。謝謝你讓我擠到這裡來。剛剛有一個，也許有兩個，但第一個是關於自由現金流的，今年是 14 億至 15 億美元。您能否談談其中蘊含的營運資金拖累，並從可能的規模、中國首付拖累或今年其他任何不尋常的令人沮喪的因素來解析，這些因素應該會在明年扭轉，從而給您帶來更好的成長。

Because I'd assume, and you could correct me if I'm wrong, but free cash flow growth next year should be better than a mid-single digit. Do you expect on operating profits. Just wanted to check on the dynamics there.

因為我假設，如果我錯了，你可以糾正我，但明年的自由現金流成長應該比中個位數更好。您期望營業利潤嗎？只是想看看那裡的動態。

Hi Pat, this is Cristina, and so yeah, you're right. The production of the guide to $1.4billion to $1.5 billion is related to the down payments on the new equipment order situation in China. But overall, when you see our cash flow performance year to date, we have generated an adjusted net income of $1.1billion to $1.2 billion on $900 million year to date cash flow. That means that you had to date, we have built up approximately $250 million working capital and there are two reasons for that.

嗨帕特，我是克里斯蒂娜，所以是的，你是對的。該指南14億至15億美元的製作與中國新設備訂單情況的首付有關。但總體而言，當你看到我們今年迄今為止的現金流表現時，我們已經在 9 億美元的年初至今現金流中產生了 11 億至 12 億美元的調整後淨利潤。這意味著到目前為止，我們已經建立了約 2.5 億美元的營運資金，其中有兩個原因。

One is the business mix on the one side, new equipment declining, especially because of China, and we don't get it on payments. But on the other side, we are growing in service and the collection timing service is later because we collect when we execute the job.

一方面是業務組合，新設備下降，特別是因為中國，而我們沒有透過付款獲得它。但另一方面，我們的服務正在成長，收集定時服務則較晚，因為我們在執行作業時收集。

For example, on repair, we also have some payables impact because of the ramp-up of modernization because of payments to suppliers when we execute the projects. But we expect these business makes to stabilize now in Q4 will start collecting that will ramp up of top line in Q3 now in Q4.

例如，在維修方面，由於我們在執行專案時向供應商付款，現代化進程加快，因此我們也會產生一些應付帳款影響。但我們預計這些業務將在第四季穩定下來，並將開始收集，這將在第三季增加收入。

And overall, the $200 million working capital is going to be unwound. So the expectation in the guide is to deliver in Q4 approximately $550 million cash flow, that is more or less the same level of cash flow we delivered last year in Q3.

總體而言，2 億美元的營運資金將被釋放。因此，指南中的預期是在第四季度交付約 5.5 億美元的現金流，這與我們去年第三季交付的現金流水準大致相同。

And then to your question into 2025, yes, you are right, we should expect that as we have stabilized the business mix, cash flow to pickup at a faster pace than operating profit growth.

然後，對於您在 2025 年提出的問題，是的，您是對的，我們應該預期，隨著業務結構的穩定，現金流的成長速度將快於營業利潤的成長速度。

And Patrick, from a capital allocation perspective, we renewed $1 billion of share buybacks and $600 million roughly of dividend versus this [$1.4 billion to $1.5 billion]. We have the ability to do that because team's done a great job bringing our cash balance down probably since first time significantly since spin from a $1 billion to almost $800 million. So we are working every element of this to be able to share obviously, share this cash back with our shareholders

派崔克，從資本配置的角度來看，我們更新了 10 億美元的股票回購和約 6 億美元的股利。[14億至15億美元]。我們有能力做到這一點，因為我們的團隊做得很好，使我們的現金餘額從 10 億美元減少到近 8 億美元，這可能是我們第一次大幅下降。因此，我們正在努力做到這一點的每一個要素，以便能夠明顯地與我們的股東分享現金回饋

Makes sense. And so conversion next year should be back above 100% of adjusted earnings?

有道理。那麼明年的轉換率應該會恢復到調整後的 100% 以上嗎？

At least 100%. We will guide you in January.

至少100%。我們將在一月份為您提供指導。

Makes sense. And then last one, just on service margins on if you could talk about just the factors around why that margin expansion for next year, which would flow to something less than 50 basis points relative to the 75 you're guiding for this year. Just any color on the factors that were better than expected this year that will reverse, next year to make it closer than 50 over the three-year period?

有道理。最後一個，關於服務利潤率，您是否可以談談為什麼明年利潤率擴張的因素，相對於您今年指導的 75 個基點，這將低於 50 個基點。今年好於預期的因素是否會在明年逆轉，使其在三年期間接近 50？

Yeah. At the end, we are not guiding now is we're just providing some color of the trends on the 50 basis points is what we committed by being the Investors Day and this is going to come on. Of course, on top of that, we continue working on the same actions we have implemented this year in terms of price productivity and uplift, and we will target to overdrive, but they've for the time being it is what we can mention.

是的。最後，我們現在不提供指導，只是提供 50 個基點趨勢的一些顏色，這是我們在投資者日所承諾的，這將會發生。當然，最重要的是，我們將繼續採取今年在價格生產力和提升方面實施的相同行動，我們的目標是超速行駛，但目前我們可以提到這一點。

Understood. And modernization business, those margins are expected to continue expanding as part of that guide for next year?

明白了。至於現代化業務，作為明年指南的一部分，這些利潤預計將繼續擴大？

Yeah, you'll see that in January, yes.

是的，你會在一月份看到這一點，是的。

Okay. Thanks so much for the color. Best of luck.

好的。非常感謝你的顏色。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's question and answer session. And I would now like to turn the call over to Judy Marks for closing remarks.

女士們先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉給朱迪​​·馬克斯（Judy Marks）做總結發言。

Thank you, Krista. Our solid results in the first nine months of the year demonstrate the resiliency of our service driven business model. We remain focused on mitigating macro headwinds and further driving shareholder value in order to deliver a strong final quarter and beyond.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。我們今年前九個月的穩健業績證明了我們服務驅動的業務模式的彈性。我們仍然專注於減輕宏觀阻力並進一步提高股東價值，以實現最後一個季度及以後的強勁表現。

Our growth and modernization, maintenance and repair and the overall service portfolio validates that our flywheel continues to fuel profitable growth. As I close the call, I'd like to take the opportunity to thank Mike for his many contributions to Otis and wish him success in his new role. Stay safe and well everyone. Thank you for joining.

我們的成長和現代化、維護和維修以及整體服務組合證明我們的飛輪繼續推動獲利成長。在結束通話時，我想藉此機會感謝麥克為奧的斯做出的許多貢獻，並祝他在新職位上取得成功。大家注意安全、身體健康。感謝您的加入。

Ladies and gentlemen, which does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。