Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Onto Innovation Second Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mike Sheaffer, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Onto Innovation 第二季度收益發布電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係部的邁克·希弗 (Mike Sheaffer)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Cynthia, and good afternoon, everyone. Onto Innovation issued its 2023 second quarter financial results this afternoon shortly after the market closed. If you did not received a copy of the release, please refer to the company's website where a copy of the release is posted. Joining us on the call today are Michael Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Slicer, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝辛西婭，大家下午好。今天下午收盤後不久，Onto Innovation 發布了 2023 年第二季度財務業績。如果您沒有收到該新聞稿的副本，請參閱發布該新聞稿副本的公司網站。今天加入我們電話會議的是首席執行官邁克爾·普利辛斯基 (Michael Plisinski)；和首席財務官 Mark Slicer。

I would like to remind you that statements made by management on this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Those statements are subject to a range of changes, risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially. For more information regarding the risk factors that may impact Onto Innovation's results, I would encourage you to review our earnings release and our SEC filings. Onto Innovation does not undertake the obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

我想提醒您，管理層在本次電話會議上發表的聲明將包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述可能會受到一系列變化、風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。有關可能影響 Onto Innovation 業績的風險因素的更多信息，我建議您查看我們的收益報告和 SEC 備案文件。 Onto Innovation 不承擔根據新信息或未來事件更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless we specify otherwise. As a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings release.

除非我們另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行。提醒一下，公認會計原則和非公認會計原則結果之間的詳細調節可以在今天的收益報告中找到。

I will now go ahead and turn the call over to our CEO, Mike Plisinski. Mike?

現在我將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官邁克·普利辛斯基 (Mike Plisinski)。麥克風？

Thank you, Mike. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. I'll begin with the shift in timing of shipments for 3 lithography tools, which impacted our second quarter results and third quarter guidance. All 3 tools refer a specific customer and scheduled to ship near the end of the second quarter. During the quarter, we accepted a customer request for specific enhancement package to be added to the tools and manufacturing. We estimated this could be installed and tested in the quarter, but ultimately, the full verification took longer than planned. The customers since approved this new functionality and the tools are included in our outlook for the third quarter.

謝謝你，邁克。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我將從 3 種光刻工具的發貨時間的變化開始，這影響了我們第二季度的業績和第三季度的指導。所有 3 個工具均針對特定客戶，併計劃在第二季度末附近發貨。在本季度，我們接受了客戶關於將特定增強包添加到工具和製造中的請求。我們估計這可以在本季度安裝和測試，但最終，全面驗證花費的時間比計劃的要長。此後客戶批准了這一新功能，這些工具已包含在我們對第三季度的展望中。

In aggregate, the second quarter revenue and third quarter outlook remains consistent with our prior guidance of just over $400 million for the sum of those 2 quarters. This reflects the weak demand from our advanced nodes customers, being offset by strong power semiconductor revenue and the more recent resurging demand for our Dragonfly inspection systems to support heterogeneous packaging and high-bandwidth memory customers. In fact, we expect this specific demand to drive more than $90 million in revenue over the next 3 quarters. I'll provide additional details about our outlook in a few minutes, but first, let's dig a little deeper into the second quarter.

總體而言，第二季度收入和第三季度前景與我們之前的指導一致，即這兩個季度的總收入略高於 4 億美元。這反映出我們先進節點客戶的需求疲軟，但被強勁的功率半導體收入和最近為支持異構封裝和高帶寬內存客戶而對 Dragonfly 檢測系統的需求復蘇所抵消。事實上，我們預計這一特定需求將在未來 3 個季度帶來超過 9000 萬美元的收入。我將在幾分鐘內提供有關我們前景的更多詳細信息，但首先，讓我們更深入地了解第二季度。

We'll start with our Specialty and Advanced Packaging customers where revenue from this customer grew by over 20% from the prior quarter. Revenue from our power device customers grew over 35% and included our product portfolio of inspection, metrology and software solutions. This was our largest market in the quarter, and in fact, revenue exceeded total power device revenue in all of 2021.

我們將從特種和先進封裝客戶開始，該客戶的收入比上一季度增長了 20% 以上。來自功率器件客戶的收入增長了 35% 以上，其中包括我們的檢測、計量和軟件解決方案產品組合。這是我們本季度最大的市場，事實上，2021 年全年收入超過了功率器件總收入。

Building on this demand, in the quarter, we announced the intent to expand our metrology portfolio with the release of Element material metrology and Atlas OCD metrology. Each specifically designed to address challenges in the compound semiconductor manufacturing. We've already secured orders for these tools and shipments will begin in the fourth quarter. With these additional products, we believe we are positioned to address an estimated 80% of process control steps in this high-growth market, which is estimated to require 10x the current volume of wafers by 2030.

基於這一需求，我們在本季度宣布打算通過發布 Element 材料計量和 Atlas OCD 計量來擴展我們的計量產品組合。每一個都是專門為解決化合物半導體製造中的挑戰而設計的。我們已經獲得了這些工具的訂單，並將於第四季度開始發貨。憑藉這些額外產品，我們相信我們能夠解決這個高增長市場中約 80% 的工藝控制步驟，預計到 2030 年，該市場所需的晶圓數量將是當前晶圓數量的 10 倍。

In Advanced Packaging, we delivered over 20 million of inspection systems to customers ramping heterogeneous packaging lines to support growing end market demand for high-performance compute. The flexibility of our Dragonfly systems, which integrates submicron 2D defect detection, 3D metrology and our unique Clearfind capability into a single system is proving to be a powerful tool for the heterogeneous packaging applications used in high-performance compute. For example, Clearfind technology is able to detect residue on die-to-die or die-to-substrate interconnects and ensures good die bonding, while our 3D metrology sensors provide critical stack hide information and coplanarity data for the package. This metrology is proving essential to controlling yields and is leading to higher attach rates.

在先進封裝領域，我們向客戶交付了超過 2000 萬個檢測系統，不斷增加異構封裝生產線，以滿足終端市場對高性能計算日益增長的需求。我們的 Dragonfly 系統將亞微米 2D 缺陷檢測、3D 計量和我們獨特的 Clearfind 功能集成到一個系統中，其靈活性被證明是高性能計算中異構封裝應用的強大工具。例如，Clearfind 技術能夠檢測芯片到芯片或芯片到基板互連上的殘留物，並確保良好的芯片接合，而我們的 3D 計量傳感器則提供關鍵的堆疊隱藏信息和封裝的共面性數據。事實證明，這種計量對於控制良率至關重要，並帶來更高的附加率。

In sharp contrast, revenue from our advanced nodes customers declined 43% in the quarter. However, even as capacity buys wane, R&D investments have continued and in the second quarter, we were pleased to see further proliferation of our Iris Films when it was successfully qualified by a top 3 DRAM -- by a top 3 DRAM manufacturer in the quarter. In addition, we delivered several OCD -- Atlas OCD systems to 2 customers for gate-all-around applications. We believe the declines in advanced nodes will reach a bottom in the third quarter with strong demand in specialty and advanced packaging continuing in the second half of the year.

與此形成鮮明對比的是，本季度來自我們先進節點客戶的收入下降了 43%。然而，即使產能購買減少，研發投資仍在繼續，在第二季度，我們很高興看到我們的Iris Films 進一步激增，因為它在本季度成功獲得了前三名DRAM 的認證——由前三名DRAM 製造商認證。此外，我們還向 2 家客戶交付了多個 OCD——Atlas OCD 系統，用於全環閘應用。我們認為，隨著下半年特種和先進封裝的強勁需求持續，先進節點的跌幅將在第三季度觸底。

Before moving to our outlook for the third quarter, Mark will now cover the financial results for the second quarter.

在展望第三季度之前，馬克現在將介紹第二季度的財務業績。

Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. As Mike highlighted, we closed the second quarter with revenue of $191 million, down 26% over the same period last year, and below the second quarter guidance range of $195 million to $203 million due to the shift in timing of the 3 JetStep systems Mike commented on. Despite the lower revenue, we did achieve an EPS of $0.79 for the second quarter within our EPS guidance range of $0.75 to $0.90. The revenue decline from the same period last year is primarily due to the decline in our advanced nodes business, which had revenue of $38 million and represents 20% of revenue.

謝謝邁克，大家下午好。正如 Mike 所強調的，我們第二季度的收入為 1.91 億美元，比去年同期下降 26%，由於 3 個 JetStep 系統的時間變化，低於第二季度 1.95 億美元至 2.03 億美元的指導範圍發表了評論。儘管收入較低，但我們第二季度的每股收益確實達到了 0.79 美元，在我們每股收益指導範圍 0.75 美元至 0.90 美元的範圍內。收入較去年同期下降主要是由於我們先進節點業務的下降，該業務的收入為 3800 萬美元，佔收入的 20%。

Specialty Devices and Advanced Packaging revenue of $112 million represents 59% of revenue and Software and Services had revenue of $41 million, which represents 21% of revenue. We achieved 53% gross margin for the second quarter, exceeding our guidance range of 50% to 52%, driven by the favorable mix, shipping fewer JetStep systems and seeing an initial favorability due to our supply chain optimization efforts.

特種器件和先進封裝收入為 1.12 億美元，佔收入的 59%，軟件和服務收入為 4100 萬美元，佔收入的 21%。我們第二季度的毛利率達到了53%，超出了我們50% 至52% 的指導範圍，這得益於有利的組合、運輸較少的JetStep 系統以及由於我們的供應鏈優化工作而獲得的初步好評。

Second quarter operating expenses were $59.9 million, within our guidance range of $58 million to $60 million. We are still executing to our cost reduction activities. However, we have continued to maintain a slightly higher level of investment in R&D initiatives, as Mike mentioned, aligning to R&D engagements and planar films and power semiconductor applications. Our operating income of $41 million was 21% of revenue for the second quarter compared to 29% from the prior year. Our net income in the second quarter was $39 million or $0.79 per share.

第二季度運營費用為 5,990 萬美元，在我們 5,800 萬至 6,000 萬美元的指導範圍內。我們仍在執行降低成本的活動。然而，正如邁克提到的，我們繼續在研發計劃上保持略高的投資水平，與研發活動以及平面薄膜和功率半導體應用保持一致。我們的營業收入為 4100 萬美元，佔第二季度收入的 21%，而去年同期為 29%。我們第二季度的淨利潤為 3900 萬美元，即每股 0.79 美元。

Now moving to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and short-term investments of $610 million, an increase of $62 million from the start of the year with operating cash flow of $31 million within the quarter, representing 17% of revenue for Q2. Inventory ended the quarter at $352 million, an increase of $14 million. We continue to actively manage down our inventory levels across the network. However, we had increases in lithography and services inventory within the quarter. We are projecting a decline in Q3 and are now targeting to be between $275 million and $300 million by the end of the year. Accounts receivable decreased $22 million to $188 million in the quarter, and our days sales outstanding decreased 6 days to 90 days. With our inventory reduction goals and focus on cash collections, we expect to return cash flow to consistent performance of over 20%. During the quarter, we did not execute any share repurchases. We have $32 million remaining under our existing $100 million authorization.

現在轉向資產負債表。截至第二季度末，我們的現金和短期投資為 6.1 億美元，較年初增加 6200 萬美元，本季度運營現金流為 3100 萬美元，佔第二季度收入的 17%。本季度末庫存為 3.52 億美元，增加了 1,400 萬美元。我們繼續積極管理整個網絡的庫存水平。然而，本季度我們的光刻和服務庫存有所增加。我們預計第三季度的收入將下降，目前的目標是到年底時收入將在 2.75 億美元至 3 億美元之間。本季度應收賬款減少 2200 萬美元，至 1.88 億美元，應收賬款天數減少 6 天至 90 天。憑藉我們的庫存減少目標和對現金回收的關注，我們預計現金流量將保持在 20% 以上的穩定表現。本季度，我們沒有執行任何股票回購。我們現有的 1 億美元授權還剩 3200 萬美元。

Now turning to our outlook for Q3. We currently expect revenue for the third quarter to be between $205 million and $225 million. We expect gross margins will be between 50% to 51%, primarily due to lower advanced nodes revenue, which typically carries higher margins above our corporate average as well as the shift of the JetStep systems built in Q2 now shipping in Q3. For operating expenses, we expect to be between $57 million to $59 million. For the full year '23, we expect our effective tax rate to be between 14% to 16%. We expect our diluted share count for Q3 to be approximately 49.4 million shares. Based upon these assumptions, we anticipate our non-GAAP earnings to be between $0.85 per share to $1.05 per share.

現在轉向我們對第三季度的展望。我們目前預計第三季度的收入在 2.05 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間。我們預計毛利率將在50% 至51% 之間，主要是由於先進節點收入較低（通常其利潤率高於我們公司的平均水平），以及第二季度構建的JetStep 系統現已在第三季度發貨。對於運營費用，我們預計在 5700 萬美元至 5900 萬美元之間。對於 23 年全年，我們預計有效稅率將在 14% 至 16% 之間。我們預計第三季度的稀釋後股份數量約為 4940 萬股。基於這些假設，我們預計非 GAAP 收益將在每股 0.85 美元至 1.05 美元之間。

We are making progress towards reducing our fixed cost structure by optimizing our supply chain and manufacturing sites, while maintaining our strategic priorities and several R&D programs, and ensuring our ability to deliver financial performance in line with our long-term operating model. The team has made significant progress to date, expanding our second shift to drive higher absorption of fixed costs, while improving cycle times and outsourcing several noncore subassemblies to global supply chain partners. We have set aggressive but achievable targets with our global partners, consolidating our supplier base by greater than 50% over the next 2 years while also simplifying our key components such as moving to a common automation system which will drive a 25% cost reduction and as part of our identified savings for '24 and '25 as highlighted during our recent Analyst Day.

我們正在通過優化供應鍊和製造基地，在降低固定成本結構方面取得進展，同時保持我們的戰略重點和多項研發計劃，並確保我們有能力根據我們的長期運營模式提供財務業績。迄今為止，該團隊已取得重大進展，擴大了第二輪班次，以推動更高的固定成本吸收，同時縮短了周期時間，並將多個非核心組件外包給全球供應鏈合作夥伴。我們與全球合作夥伴制定了積極但可實現的目標，在未來2 年內將我們的供應商基礎鞏固了50% 以上，同時還簡化了我們的關鍵組件，例如轉向通用自動化系統，這將推動成本降低25%，正如我們最近的分析師日所強調的那樣，這是我們確定的 24 和 25 年節省的一部分。

And with that, I will turn it back to Mike for additional insights into Q3 and the remainder of 2023. Mike?

接下來，我將把它轉回給邁克，以獲取有關第三季度和 2023 年剩餘時間的更多見解。邁克？

Thank you, Mark. As Mark mentioned, we expect the third quarter to be up [8%] to 18%, reflecting an increase in both process control and lithography revenue over the second quarter. The expected increase in process control revenue is mostly driven by capacity expansions and higher process control intensity to support heterogeneous integration of GPUs and high-bandwidth memory. Combining these 2 powerful technologies into a single package is enabling customers like NVIDIA to supply the specialized compute platforms to support the growing demand for large language model applications by hyperscalers and corporate enterprises. These assembly processes are more complex and with multiple die becoming a single package, the impact to yield of a single interconnect failure is much higher.

謝謝你，馬克。正如 Mark 提到的，我們預計第三季度將增長 [8%] 至 18%，反映出工藝控制和光刻收入較第二季度有所增長。過程控制收入的預期增長主要是由產能擴張和更高的過程控制強度推動的，以支持GPU和高帶寬內存的異構集成。將這兩項強大的技術組合到一個軟件包中，使 NVIDIA 等客戶能夠提供專門的計算平台，以滿足超大規模企業和企業對大型語言模型應用程序不斷增長的需求。這些組裝工藝更加複雜，並且隨著多個芯片變成單個封裝，單個互連故障對良率的影響要大得多。

The proven ability of our Dragonfly G3 system to reliably monitor for these failures is driving the projected increase in demand of over $90 million in revenue, which we mentioned earlier. We also project demand for our portfolio of products supporting power semiconductor customers to remain near current record levels. We still see headwinds in the advanced nodes, primarily from DRAM manufacturers, and we expect revenue to decline again in the third quarter, which we believe will mark a bottom for front-end memory overall.

我們的 Dragonfly G3 系統可靠地監控這些故障的能力已得到證實，這推動了我們之前提到的預計需求增長超過 9000 萬美元的收入。我們還預計，支持功率半導體客戶的產品組合的需求將保持在當前的創紀錄水平附近。我們仍然看到先進節點的阻力，主要來自 DRAM 製造商，我們預計第三季度收入將再次下降，我們認為這將標誌著前端內存整體觸底。

We're optimistic for a possible recovery in the second half next year as customers like Samsung are beginning to talk about the launch of new smartphones and PC promotions in the second half of 2023, being a catalyst for customer inventory reductions going into next year.

我們對明年下半年可能出現的複蘇持樂觀態度，因為三星等客戶開始談論 2023 年下半年推出新智能手機和 PC 促銷活動，這將成為明年客戶庫存減少的催化劑。

In summary, we see strong demand for our products to support power semiconductor device manufacturers and heterogeneous packaging on both wafer and panel substrates. In these markets, we believe our portfolio of connected solutions provides a differentiated value, further contributing to the adoption rate we're seeing.

總之，我們看到對我們的產品的強勁需求，以支持功率半導體器件製造商以及晶圓和麵板基板上的異構封裝。在這些市場中，我們相信我們的互聯解決方案組合提供了差異化的價值，進一步提高了我們所看到的採用率。

In the advanced nodes, though spending is down significantly this year, our customer collaborations are resulting in new tool of record positions for our Iris planar films metrology and integrated metrology while progressing the capability of Atlas OCD metrology to new applications and more challenging transistor geometries. We expect these new product position should lead to higher wallet share when investments resume in the advanced logic and memory markets. At the same time, we're implementing the structural improvements to operations and supply chains that should result in a stronger financial foundation as we close in 2023 and prepare for the new year.

在先進節點中，儘管今年的支出大幅下降，但我們的客戶合作正在為我們的Iris 平面薄膜計量和集成計量帶來創紀錄的新工具，同時將Atlas OCD 計量的能力提升到新的應用和更具挑戰性的晶體管幾何形狀。我們預計，當先進邏輯和存儲器市場的投資恢復時，這些新產品的定位將帶來更高的錢包份額。與此同時，我們正在對運營和供應鏈實施結構性改進，這將為我們在 2023 年結束並為新的一年做準備時帶來更強大的財務基礎。

I'll now turn the call over to Cynthia for questions from our covering analysts.

現在我將把電話轉給辛西婭，詢問我們的分析師的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Charles Shi with Needham.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Charles Shi 和 Needham 提出的第一個問題。

Mike and Mark, I really just want to start out with some of the commentary around heterogeneous integration and high-bandwidth memory. So on high-bandwidth memory, can you kind of provide us a little bit of further outlook beyond what you think the $90 million over the next 3 quarters? Do you think high-bandwidth memory, the wafer starts is going to grow in what kind of fashion, is it like more linear as some other management team seems to believe, or you think it's going to be a much higher growth? Any indication from our customers on high-bandwidth memory would be great.

Mike 和 Mark，我真的只想從一些有關異構集成和高帶寬內存的評論開始。那麼，在高帶寬內存方面，除了您認為的未來 3 個季度的 9000 萬美元之外，您能否為我們提供一些進一步的展望？您認為高帶寬內存、晶圓生產將以何種方式增長，是否像其他一些管理團隊認為的那樣更加線性，或者您認為這將是一個更高的增長？我們的客戶對高帶寬內存的任何指示都會很好。

But then the related question really is about -- very specifically about CoWoS. I know hydrogenous integration probably covered a lot of stuff, not just about CoWoS, but then specifically on CoWoS, how much opportunity you're seeing today? Can you quantify for us?

但相關問題實際上是關於——非常具體地是關於 CoWoS。我知道氫集成可能涵蓋了很多內容，不僅僅是關於 CoWoS，而且特別是在 CoWoS 上，您今天看到了多少機會？您能為我們量化一下嗎？

Sure. So I'll answer the last one first. Regarding CoWoS, when we talked about heterogeneous integration specifics for AI, I think it's pretty clear that, for instance, NVIDIA who's driving a lot of this is tied to TSMC and CoWoS. So that's a fairly significant driver for us and for that $90 million that we mentioned. As far as HBM and the growth overall, what we're seeing is a pretty rapid increase in demand right now. Part of it is capacity expansion, part of it is, I think, a little bit of process control intensity increase. Certainly, that's the case in the CoWoS area.

當然。那麼我先回答最後一個。關於 CoWoS，當我們談論人工智能的異構集成細節時，我認為很明顯，例如，推動這方面發展的 NVIDIA 與台積電和 CoWoS 息息相關。因此，這對我們以及我們提到的 9000 萬美元來說是一個相當重要的驅動力。就 HBM 和整體增長而言，我們目前看到需求增長相當迅速。一部分是產能擴張，一部分是我認為過程控制強度的一點點增加。當然，CoWoS 領域就是這種情況。

So it's hard to say how that rapid increase continues into 2024, we certainly expect additional orders in 2024, and we're already having some of those discussions beyond the first quarter. But is it going to continue on this rapid trajectory, this rapid growth trajectory? Or will it start to slow down? That's going to remain to be seen. And a lot will depend on how quickly I believe the enterprise customers adopt AI and these large language models for applications internally.

因此，很難說這種快速增長將如何持續到 2024 年，我們當然預計 2024 年會有更多訂單，而且我們已經在第一季度之後進行了一些討論。但它會繼續沿著這種快速的軌跡、這種快速的增長軌跡嗎？還是會開始放緩？這還有待觀察。這在很大程度上取決於我認為企業客戶在內部採用人工智能和這些大型語言模型用於應用程序的速度。

Can I ask a second question? Maybe advanced nodes. You said advanced nodes, you believe it's bottoming in Q3. Can you clarify a little bit more because advanced nodes, for you guys is not just about memory, but also advanced foundry/logic. Between these two, I think you said memory is bottoming in Q3, but what about advanced foundry/logic? Can you clarify if I heard something wrong?

我可以問第二個問題嗎？也許是高級節點。您說的是高級節點，您認為它在第三季度觸底。您能否再澄清一下，因為高級節點對你們來說不僅涉及內存，還涉及高級鑄造/邏輯。在這兩者之間，我認為您說過存儲器在第三季度觸底，但是先進的代工/邏輯呢？如果我聽錯了，你能澄清一下嗎？

Yes. I think where I was talking is, overall, we think the bottom is there primarily from DRAM. So DRAM has been the biggest drop. Advanced logic has been a little more stable, and we've seen that have less of a big impact on our advanced nodes trajectory. So we do think advanced nodes, do we know if logic is going to snap back right away? No, but we do see several new fabs being built. Everybody is aware of Samsung and Taylor and TSMC Arizona and opportunities at Intel as well. We continue to see and seed pilot lines and deliver systems as those fabs are being constructed and starting to take some initial systems. But we have also seen the construction delays announced by several of these manufacturers. So do we hope for some growth in second half next year? For sure. But we're already starting to see that plateauing on advanced logic as it is. So DRAM is the big change.

是的。我認為我所說的是，總的來說，我們認為底部主要來自 DRAM。因此 DRAM 的跌幅最大。高級邏輯更加穩定，我們已經看到這對我們的高級節點軌跡影響較小。所以我們確實考慮了先進的節點，我們知道邏輯是否會立即恢復嗎？不，但我們確實看到幾家新工廠正在建設中。每個人都知道三星、泰勒和台積電亞利桑那州以及英特爾的機會。隨著這些晶圓廠的建設並開始採用一些初始系統，我們將繼續觀察和培育試驗線並交付系統。但我們也看到其中幾家製造商宣布推遲建設。那麼我們是否希望明年下半年出現一些增長？一定。但我們已經開始看到高級邏輯的停滯狀態。所以 DRAM 是一個巨大的變化。

I see. Is the DRAM comment, is it more on the HBM related reaching that inflection point? Is that mainly the HBM being the driver? Or do you see the standard DRAM maybe the CapEx is also seeing some inflection point. I just wanted to ask a little bit more on that DRAM comment.

我懂了。 DRAM 評論是否更多地與 HBM 相關達到拐點？這主要是由 HBM 驅動嗎？或者您是否看到標準 DRAM，也許資本支出也看到了一些拐點。我只是想就 DRAM 的評論多問一點。

Yes. I think it's certainly the more common DRAM that's driving the drops we're seeing. And HBM is great, and it's great for our packaging business, and it's picking up some DDR 5, 4, but it's not enough to make up for PCs and smartphones that are down, right? So DRAM overall is impacting us because of the vast rest of the market outside of high-performance compute.

是的。我認為肯定是更常見的 DRAM 推動了我們所看到的下降。 HBM 很棒，對我們的封裝業務來說很棒，它正在拾取一些 DDR 5、4，但這還不足以彌補 PC 和智能手機的下滑，對嗎？因此，由於高性能計算之外的大部分市場，DRAM 總體上正在影響我們。

We'll take our next question from Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities.

我們將回答 B. Riley Securities 的 Craig Ellis 提出的下一個問題。

I just wanted to see if I could start with you, Mike, and look beyond the calendar third quarter. Because it seems like with the panel litho shipment timing issue that we will have at least 3 and maybe more tools. So I was hoping you could clarify how many tools we'll rev rec in the third quarter there. And then from there, can you just talk about the gives and takes for fourth quarter revenue, not looking for specific guidance, but just want to understand how the gives and takes play out as we exit the year?

我只是想看看我是否可以從你開始，邁克，超越日曆第三季度。因為似乎由於面板光刻發貨時間問題，我們將擁有至少 3 個甚至更多的工具。所以我希望你能澄清我們將在第三季度改進多少工具。然後從那裡開始，您能否只談論第四季度收入的給予和索取，而不是尋找具體的指導，而只是想了解當我們退出這一年時，給予和索取如何發揮作用？

Sure. So it's actually a continuation of what we're guiding in the third quarter. So we see power semiconductors for the fourth quarter remaining fairly strong. Demand there is strong. We're going to introduce the new tools. That will help a little bit, but that is more a driver for 2024 in the power semiconductor space. And then heterogeneous packaging, our support specifically for AI devices, i.e., NVIDIA, some of the CoWoS and HBM that were mentioned, that we can see continuing to strengthen straight through the year. So those are the positives. Obviously, the litho will remain sort of stable and continue once we catch up with the shift here with the 3 tools.

當然。因此，這實際上是我們第三季度指導方針的延續。因此，我們認為第四季度的功率半導體仍然相當強勁。那裡的需求很強勁。我們將介紹新工具。這會有所幫助，但這更多的是 2024 年功率半導體領域的驅動力。然後是異構封裝，我們專門針對 AI 設備（即 NVIDIA）、提到的一些 CoWoS 和 HBM 的支持，我們可以看到它們在今年持續加強。這些都是積極的一面。顯然，一旦我們用 3 種工具趕上這裡的轉變，光刻將保持穩定並繼續下去。

And then the advanced nodes, I mean, that's the tailwind. So as I look at Q4, it's a lot of the same stories, real strong in heterogeneous packaging, real strong in power, advanced nodes a bit of a tailwind.

然後是先進的節點，我的意思是，那是順風。所以當我看第四季度時，有很多相同的故事，異構封裝真正強大，功率真正強大，先進的節點有點順風。

And overall, we think that the -- overall, we expect to be similar levels of guidance for the fourth quarter. We'd expect it to be around the same.

總體而言，我們認為，總體而言，我們預計第四季度的指導水平將相似。我們預計它會大致相同。

Yes. Really helpful, Mike. And then Mark, I'll follow up with you. So the company had a program for optimization. And I think just more careful expense management and that was about $27.5 million at Analyst Day. There was a $25 million program that was announced. Can you just help us understand to what extent are benefits from those programs factored into the third quarter's guide? What does it mean for the exit level of gross margin this calendar year? So where can gross margin be in the fourth quarter? And then how much of the benefit of those 2 programs do we see hit in gross margin and OpEx next year?

是的。真的很有幫助，邁克。然後馬克，我會跟進你的情況。因此公司製定了優化計劃。我認為只需更加謹慎的費用管理，分析師日的費用約為 2750 萬美元。宣布了一項耗資 2500 萬美元的計劃。您能否幫助我們了解這些計劃在多大程度上納入了第三季度的指南？這對於本歷年的毛利率退出水平意味著什麼？那麼第四季度的毛利率能達到什麼水平呢？那麼明年我們會看到這兩個計劃的收益對毛利率和運營支出有多大影響？

Yes. No. I mean let me start with coming off the Analyst Day and the comment around the $25 million of optimization '24 and '25. I mean those -- that activity we're executing now. Obviously, we haven't seen the brunt of those savings are in -- expected to be in '24 and '25, we are, as I commented in my prepared remarks, seeing some of that now and some slight shifts of suppliers and things like that. So we're still focused on that. I think for Q3 and Q4, we still have a lot more work to do. Certainly, we have seen some savings in operating expenses as it relates to -- taking costs out and offsetting the kind of the annualization year-over-year. Certainly, in the back half, we're focused on that -- those continued reduction plans. The Q3 we do have certainly some of that continue to be baked in and where we are from a gross margin and OpEx standpoint.

是的。不，我的意思是讓我從分析師日結束後以及圍繞 24 和 25 年 2500 萬美元優化的評論開始。我的意思是那些——我們現在正在執行的活動。顯然，我們還沒有看到這些節省的首當其衝——預計在 24 和 25 年，正如我在準備好的發言中評論的那樣，我們現在看到了其中的一些，以及供應商和事物的一些細微變化像那樣。所以我們仍然專注於此。我認為對於第三季度和第四季度，我們還有很多工作要做。當然，我們已經看到運營費用有所節省，因為它與扣除成本並逐年抵消年化費用有關。當然，在下半年，我們的重點是那些持續的削減計劃。從毛利率和運營支出的角度來看，我們在第三季度的表現肯定會繼續改善。

I think as we look at the decline in advanced nodes, fortunately, we have programs in place right now. We're looking and executing even further reductions in Q3 and Q4 as we look towards that decline and making sure that we can continue to drive gross margin accretion, back up above where we -- the 53% to 54%. Our goal is from a full year perspective is still the target that 53% to 54% and aligned to the long-term operating model of getting back to 55% plus longer term. So that's our target.

我認為，當我們看到先進節點的下降時，幸運的是，我們現在已經制定了計劃。我們正在考慮並在第三季度和第四季度執行進一步的削減，因為我們期待這種下降，並確保我們能夠繼續推動毛利率增長，回到我們的水平——53%至54%。從全年的角度來看，我們的目標仍然是 53% 至 54% 的目標，並與恢復到 55% 以上的長期運營模式保持一致。這就是我們的目標。

So that would imply that you should be at least 54% in the fourth quarter to get to 53% to 54% for the full year mark?

那麼這是否意味著第四季度至少應達到 54%，才能在全年達到 53% 至 54%？

We're still -- I won't comment on that specifically, but I think from a -- from where we are, in trying to figure out what the business will be in Q4. I think our goal is obviously to continue to drive that 53% -- target 53% plus in Q4.

我們仍然——我不會具體評論這一點，但我認為從我們現在的情況來看，試圖弄清楚第四季度的業務將會是什麼。我認為我們的目標顯然是繼續推動 53% 的增長——第四季度的目標是 53% 以上。

We will take our next question from Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們將回答 Brian Chin 和 Stifel 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe to start with, Mike. I think you've really good strong visibility on the Packaging and Specialty side of the business. I mean visibility is clearly not great in terms of the advanced nodes. But would you characterize the level of not just DRAM but also memory investments, including nonvolatile memory. Does it feel like it's below sort of normalized kind of maintenance or even sub maintenance levels at this point? Does that give you some of the conviction in saying that Q3 looks like a bottom right now?

也許首先，邁克。我認為您對包裝和特種業務方面的知名度非常高。我的意思是，就高級節點而言，可見性顯然不是很好。但您能否描述一下 DRAM 以及內存投資（包括非易失性內存）的水平？此時是否感覺低於正常的維護甚至亞維護級別？這是否讓您確信第三季度現在看起來已經觸底？

Meaning it couldn't go lower. It is pretty low as I don't know if I've ever seen this much of a drop for this long of a period of time. So yes, I think that then you're starting to hear from our customers as well that they're beginning to see signs of price increase and inventories are coming down and that kind of thing. So yes, I think it's at or below maintenance levels. When it recovers? I don't know. But I'm not expecting a very quick snapback. We're not planning for that. That would be a nice surprise. But right now, it's -- that's why we're saying we don't expect Q3 to -- we expect Q3 to be the bottom.

意思就是不能再低了。它相當低，因為我不知道在這麼長的一段時間內我是否見過如此大幅度的下降。所以，是的，我認為您也開始從我們的客戶那裡聽到，他們開始看到價格上漲和庫存下降等跡象。所以是的，我認為它處於或低於維護水平。什麼時候恢復？我不知道。但我並不期待很快的反彈。我們沒有這樣的計劃。那將是一個很好的驚喜。但現在，這就是為什麼我們說我們預計第三季度不會觸底。

Okay. Fair enough. I know that the -- lithography has always been a bit bumpy and a bit lumpy for you guys. But it sounds like -- obviously, you take the 3 units, if you park them in 2Q, you're kind of revenuing up. And you've taken out of the third quarter guidance, you're kind of flat. But given that dynamic, and you maybe you shipped 6 tools in 3Q. Do you -- does that kind of flattish preliminary fourth quarter outlook? Is that really saying that the ex 500 lithography ships maybe back to normalized levels, maybe down a few units Q-on-Q and then you make that up with some of the growth that you're seeing in the other businesses?

好的。很公平。我知道平版印刷對你們來說一直有點崎嶇不平。但聽起來——顯然，你拿了 3 個單位，如果你把它們停在第二季度，你的收入就會增加。從第三季度的指引來看，你的業績表現持平。但鑑於這種動態，您可能在第三季度發貨了 6 個工具。您對第四季度的初步前景持平嗎？這真的是說 ex 500 光刻機的出貨量可能會回到正常水平，可能會比上一季度下降幾個單位，然後你會用其他業務的一些增長來彌補這一點？

Yes. We think the litho will be -- it depends a little bit on timing because we're trying to catch up on things. So there may be 1 or 2 tools that would move forward into the first quarter, but it would more or less normalize at that $20 million or so that we've always talked about. So $20 million, $25 million of revenue.

是的。我們認為光刻將會——這在一定程度上取決於時間，因為我們正在努力趕上進展。因此，可能有 1 或 2 個工具會進入第一季度，但或多或​​少會在我們一直談論的 2000 萬美元左右恢復正常。所以收入是 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元。

Got it. And then just framing up sort of the specialty business where -- that's a synergy you've talked about in terms of technology and customer synergies, and I think you expect to bear more fruit this up cycle than kind of what you're able to progress on last up cycle. So if you look at kind of calendar '22 and already you're having some pretty good run rates on the specialty side of the business. How much larger in 3 years could that specialty revenue for you guys be relative to the calendar '22 year when you guys were at $1 billion, and that was going to be a smaller amount of the revenue contribution to $1 billion. How much bigger could specialty be in 3 years, say?

知道了。然後只是構建某種專業業務，這就是您在技術和客戶協同效應方面談到的協同效應，我認為您期望在這個上升週期中結出比您能夠實現的更多的成果上一個上升週期的進展。因此，如果您查看 22 年的日曆，就會發現該業務的專業方面已經有了一些相當不錯的運行率。與 22 年 10 億美元相比，3 年後你們的專業收入會增加多少，而這對於 10 億美元的收入貢獻來說只是較小的一部分。比如說，三年後專業可以擴大多少？

Compared to current level, I mean it depends on spending from the customers, right? So the estimate out 3 years is always tough. But I can say that our adoption rate is only beginning. So we're just winning new customers. I think we added 5 new customers in the quarter. So those are just initial sales. They'll buy a couple of tools, then there's going to be repeat sales as they continue to grow. And every one of those customers is a potential to sell more of the portfolio. So we have opportunities to not only continue to add customers, but continue to grow our portfolio within the customers.

與目前的水平相比，我的意思是這取決於客戶的支出，對嗎？因此，對 3 年的估計總是很困難。但我可以說我們的採用率才剛剛開始。所以我們只是贏得了新客戶。我認為本季度我們增加了 5 個新客戶。所以這些只是初始銷售額。他們會購買一些工具，然後隨著他們的不斷增長，就會出現重複銷售。每一位客戶都有可能銷售更多的產品組合。因此，我們不僅有機會繼續增加客戶，而且有機會繼續擴大我們在客戶中的投資組合。

So if we're looking at where we ended up for this year, I wouldn't be surprised if we could double that revenue in 3 years. Given the growth dynamics in the industry and given our positions and the new products we're releasing and the value that we're delivering with these connected solutions, these integrated portfolios to solve unique problems.

因此，如果我們看看今年的最終結果，如果我們能夠在三年內將收入翻一番，我不會感到驚訝。考慮到行業的增長動態，考慮到我們的地位和我們正在發布的新產品，以及我們通過這些互聯解決方案、這些集成產品組合來解決獨特問題所提供的價值。

We will take our next question from David Duley with Steelhead Securities.

我們將回答 Steelhead Securities 的 David Duley 提出的下一個問題。

As far as high-bandwidth memory goes, could you just talk about how much more inspection and intensive it is versus just standard DDR5 product? And then as my second question, as far as your advanced nodes business goes for calendar 2023, how much would you expect the memory business to be down? And how much would you expect the foundry and logic to be down?

就高帶寬內存而言，您能否談談與標準 DDR5 產品相比，它的檢查量和密集度要高多少？作為我的第二個問題，就 2023 年你們的高級節點業務而言，您預計內存業務會下降多少？您預計鑄造廠和邏輯會下降多少？

Again, I'll start with the last one. For 2023, I'd expect I don't have the numbers directly in front of me, but I would expect memory to be down probably double what logic is down. So it doesn't help you too much. But I don't know if logic might be down 20%, memory might be down double that 40%.

同樣，我將從最後一個開始。對於 2023 年，我預計我面前不會有數字，但我預計內存下降可能是邏輯下降的兩倍。所以對你幫助不大。但我不知道邏輯是否會下降 20%，內存是否會下降 40% 的兩倍。

As for HBM and the attach rates, the process control intensity versus normal DRAM. It's a good question. I would -- the number of applications -- so I would say it's 2 to 3x more process control intensive, at least for our applications on our Dragonfly than normal DRAM and DRAM packaging. And that's because of the layers and the amount of metrology and inspection involved in preparing these die to be stacked and to be connected to other die in the stack. So there's a lot more metrology coinciding with our inspection in order to make those packages yield. And the metrology is on our inspection tool. So that drives the utilization of our inspection tool. It's all integrated, just not to add any confusion.

至於 HBM 和附著率、工藝控制強度與普通 DRAM 的比較。這是一個好問題。我想說的是——應用程序的數量——所以我想說它的過程控制強度是普通 DRAM 和 DRAM 封裝的 2 到 3 倍，至少對於我們 Dragonfly 上的應用程序來說是這樣。這是因為準備這些芯片進行堆疊以及連接到堆疊中的其他芯片時涉及層數以及計量和檢查量。因此，為了確保這些封裝的良率，我們的檢查需要進行更多的計量。計量是在我們的檢查工具上進行的。這推動了我們檢查工具的利用。所有這些都是集成的，只是為了不增加任何混亂。

Okay. And as far as high-bandwidth memory goes, it is -- and your outlook there, is that -- I'm assuming that's just with one lead DRAM manufacturer. I don't really think the other guys have a lot of product in the marketplace at this point. Is that the way to look at it? Or are you working with more than one guy in high-bandwidth memory?

好的。就高帶寬內存而言，您的前景是這樣的，我假設這只是一家領先 DRAM 製造商的情況。我真的不認為其他人目前在市場上有很多產品。是這樣看的嗎？或者您是否正在與多個高帶寬內存人員一起工作？

We're working with more than one. But one certainly dominates more than the other.

我們正在與不止一個合作。但其中一方肯定比另一方更占主導地位。

We will take our next question from Vedvati Shrotre with Jefferies.

我們將接受 Jefferies 的 Vedvati Shrotre 提出的下一個問題。

So I guess I wanted to ask about the packaging a little bit more. So you talked about the $90 million opportunity over 3 quarters. Is that more towards HBM versus like a CoWoS capacity? Can you characterize what -- kind of what the split is between like heterogeneous integration versus HBM?

所以我想我想多詢問一下包裝的問題。您談到了 3 個季度價值 9000 萬美元的機會。與 CoWoS 容量相比，這是否更傾向於 HBM？您能否描述一下異構集成與 HBM 之間的區別是什麼？

Yes. I would say 60-40. So a lot of it is on the logic side. So CoWoS, say, and then the rest on the HBM.

是的。我會說60-40。所以很多都是在邏輯方面。比如說 CoWoS，然後剩下的就放在 HBM 上了。

And then for my follow-up there, so you have TSMC talking about doubling their CoWoS capacity. Amkor is sort of tripling the 2.5D capacity. How should we think about -- like how does this translate to the revenue opportunity for you? Does it -- is it like a direct link of doubling capacity means doubling revenues for you? Or how does that equation work?

然後是我的後續行動，台積電正在談論將其 CoWoS 產能增加一倍。 Amkor 的 2.5D 容量增加了兩倍。我們應該如何思考——比如這如何轉化為您的收入機會？是不是——產能加倍的直接聯繫意味著收入加倍？或者說這個等式是如何運作的？

So far, it looks that -- yes, so far, it looks that way. There's a very high attach rate, what we're seeing. So right now that would be how I'd model it. If yields improve and they start to drive, let's say, a normalization and an optimization, they may reduce the process control. But if anything we're seeing an increase in process control as they're trying to add improved yield, then that's why I mentioned the increase in process control intensity. So we think maybe even -- since the beginning of the year till now, maybe 20% or more increase in process control intensity on the logic side. So heterogeneous packaging on the logic side [a lot].

到目前為止，看起來是這樣的——是的，到目前為止，看起來是這樣。我們看到，附著率非常高。所以現在這就是我建模的方式。如果產量提高並且他們開始推動標準化和優化，他們可能會減少過程控制。但如果我們看到過程控制有所增加，因為他們試圖提高產量，那麼這就是為什麼我提到過程控制強度的增加。所以我們認為，從今年年初到現在，邏輯方面的過程控制強度可能會增加 20% 或更多。因此邏輯方面的異構封裝[很多]。

And then kind of going -- so if I think about what your installed base was in 2021, 2022 for like a Dragonfly inspection tool, most of that was for kind of smartphone markets where they do split ship bumps, right? How is the fungibility of those tools? Like as the utilization is low or maybe smartphones, are they fungible as in can they be used from in and in for process to a CoWoS process? Is that a possibility? Or do you need a different set of tools or different concepts?

然後，如果我考慮一下你在 2021 年、2022 年安裝的 Dragonfly 檢查工具的安裝基礎，其中大部分是針對智能手機市場的，在那裡他們會分割船舶碰撞，對嗎？這些工具的可替代性如何？就像利用率低或者智能手機一樣，它們是否可以互換，因為它們可以在 CoWoS 流程中使用嗎？有這種可能嗎？或者您需要一套不同的工具或不同的概念？

Generally, they're in different lines. So it's the tools that have to be moved. And the tools are configured very differently for your traditional fan-out or just traditional bump. The amount of sensors and the capabilities like Clearfind, which is another option on our tool. Those are all required for the HBM and for the heterogeneous, the logic side. So it's not really fungible. We haven't seen anyone trying to move our product -- our existing tools into those lines. It's all new tools.

一般來說，他們是不同的線。所以必須移動的是工具。對於傳統扇出或傳統凸塊，這些工具的配置非常不同。傳感器的數量和 Clearfind 等功能，這是我們工具上的另一個選項。這些都是 HBM 和異構邏輯端所需要的。所以它並不是真正可替代的。我們還沒有看到有人試圖將我們的產品——我們現有的工具轉移到這些領域。都是新工具。

Okay. So does that mean our gross margin sort of end up higher when you're addressing like a CoWoS HBM application versus what it was historically?

好的。那麼，這是否意味著當您使用 CoWoS HBM 應用程序時，我們的毛利率最終會比歷史水平更高？

I believe so, but I'd have to -- we'd have to get back to you on that.

我相信是這樣，但我必須——我們必須就此回复你。

We will take our next question from Mark Miller with Benchmark.

我們將通過 Benchmark 回答 Mark Miller 的下一個問題。

The $90 million volume purchase order for process control, how do those -- how does that order ship in terms of the third and fourth quarter? Is it equally divided? Or is it going to be more back-end loaded?

用於流程控制的 9000 萬美元批量採購訂單，該訂單在第三和第四季度的發貨情況如何？是平分的嗎？或者它會加載更多的後端？

That's where we're working on. So we're projecting the $90 million. And when it's finalized with the customers, we'll be able to provide clarity on the rollout of that and the follow on, the size of the follow-on additional orders we expect. But I would expect Q3 to be a little lighter Q3 -- Q4 and Q1 to be maybe semi equal between that ramp.

這就是我們正在努力的地方。所以我們預計 9000 萬美元。當與客戶最終確定後，我們將能夠清楚地說明該計劃的推出以及我們預期的後續額外訂單的規模。但我預計 Q3 會比 Q3 輕一點，Q4 和 Q1 在該斜坡之間可能是半相等的。

You announced 18 power customers first-time orders. Any new power customers this quarter or the June quarter.

您公佈了18家電力客戶的首次訂單。本季度或六月季度的任何新電力客戶。

Yes. we had 5 new power customers this quarter.

是的。本季度我們新增了 5 個電力客戶。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Sheaffer for any additional or closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把會議轉回給希弗先生髮表補充或結束語。

Thanks, Cynthia. Just a quick reminder for everybody about 3 upcoming events. First, Onto management will be participating in the Needham SemiCap Virtual Conference on August 23. Second, we'll be participating in the Jefferies Semi conference in Chicago on August 29. And third, we will be at The Benchmark Conference in New York City on September 13.

謝謝，辛西婭。只是向大家快速提醒一下即將舉行的 3 場活動。首先，Onto 管理層將參加8 月23 日舉行的Needham SemiCap 虛擬會議。其次，我們將參加8 月29 日在芝加哥舉行的Jefferies Semi 會議。第三，我們將參加8 月29 日在紐約舉行的基準會議。 9 月 13 日。

Thanks again for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website about 7:30 Eastern Time this evening. We'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Onto Innovation. Cynthia, please conclude the call. Thank you.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。東部時間今晚 7:30 左右將在我們的網站上提供電話會議的重播。我們衷心感謝您對 Onto Innovation 的持續關注。辛西婭，請結束通話。謝謝。

Thank you, gentlemen. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。