Olin Corp (OLN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Olin Corporation's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加奧林公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.

現在我將把會議交給奧林公司投資者關係總監史蒂夫·基南。請繼續，史蒂夫。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's third quarter 2025 results.

謝謝接線生。各位早安。感謝您今天與我們一起回顧奧林公司 2025 年第三季的業績。

Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides as well as the question-and-answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note, these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected.

請注意，今天的討論，以及相關的幻燈片和隨後的問答環節，將包含有關未來業績的估計或預期的陳述。請注意，這些都是前瞻性陳述，奧林公司的實際表現可能與預測績效有重大差異。

Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's third quarter earnings press release. A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under Press Releases.

可能導致實際結果與我們的預測存在差異的一些因素，已在最新的 10-K 表格的「風險因素」部分以及昨天的第三季收益新聞稿中進行了詳細描述，但未作任何限制。今天的會議記錄和投影片副本將在我們網站的「投資者」版塊的「過往活動」欄位中提供。我們的獲利新聞稿及相關財務資料及資訊可在「新聞稿」欄位下查閱。

With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO; and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, then we'll look forward to taking your questions. In order to give everyone an opportunity, we will limit participants to one question with no follow-ups.

今天早上和我在一起的是奧林公司總裁兼執行長肯·萊恩，以及奧林公司首席財務長托德·斯萊特。我們先作一些準備好的發言，然後期待回答大家的問題。為了給每個人機會，我們將限制每位參與者只能提一個問題，不設後續問題。

I'll now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane.

現在我將把電話交給奧林公司總裁兼執行長肯·萊恩。

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. Let's start with slide 3 and our third quarter highlights. During the third quarter, we delivered robust results, reflecting strong performance in our Chlor Alkali products and Vinyls business, partially offset by ongoing weakness in our Epoxy and Winchester commercial ammunition businesses. We remain disciplined in our value-first commercial approach and operated our assets safely, reliably and efficiently.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，也謝謝今天所有到場的各位。讓我們從第 3 張幻燈片和第三季的亮點開始。第三季度，我們取得了穩健的業績，這主要得益於氯鹼產品和乙烯基業務的強勁表現，但部分被環氧樹脂和溫徹斯特商用彈藥業務的持續疲軟所抵消。我們始終堅持以價值為先的商業理念，安全、可靠、有效率地經營我們的資產。

Team Olin is more committed than ever to executing our value-first commercial strategy, maximizing cash generation and delivering on our capital allocation priorities while preserving our strong leverage to a demand recovery. During the third quarter, we continued to generate positive operating cash flow, and with a focused effort by Team Olin, achieved a significant milestone by securing our eligibility for Section 45V clean hydrogen production tax credits, which Todd will discuss shortly.

奧林團隊比以往任何時候都更加致力於執行我們以價值為先的商業策略，最大限度地創造現金流，並實現我們的資本配置優先事項，同時保持我們對需求復甦的強大槓桿作用。第三季度，我們繼續產生正的經營現金流，並且在奧林團隊的集中努力下，我們取得了一項重要的里程碑，獲得了第 45V 節清潔氫氣生產稅收抵免的資格，托德稍後將對此進行討論。

Now, let's turn to slide 4 and review our Chlor Alkali products and Vinyls results. Third quarter ECU values remained stable as did global caustic soda demand. The main end markets for caustic soda have held up well. Some weakness in pulp and paper has been largely offset by good demand in other markets such as alumina and water treatment. As expected, caustic soda remains the stronger side of the ECU.

現在，讓我們翻到第 4 張幻燈片，回顧一下我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基產品的結果。第三季歐洲貨幣單位（ECU）價值維持穩定，全球燒鹼需求也維持穩定。燒鹼的主要終端市場表現良好。紙漿和造紙行業的疲軟很大程度上被氧化鋁和水處理等其他市場的良好需求所抵消。正如預期的那樣，苛性鈉仍然是ECU中更強的成分。

Adding to the good results for CAPV was improved operating performance and lower costs. We are beginning to realize the benefits of our Optimize the Core strategy. During the quarter, we announced the dissolution of our Blue Water Alliance joint venture with Mitsui at year-end. Mitsui has been a long-term partner for Olin, and that will continue to be the case.

CAPV 取得良好業績的同時，營運績效也得到提升，成本降低。我們開始意識到「優化核心」策略帶來的好處。本季度，我們宣布將於年底解散與三井物資成立的藍水聯盟合資企業。三井一直是奧林公司的長期合作夥伴，未來也將繼續如此。

However, we believe the complexity of a joint venture is not needed for us to strategically manage our participation in the EDC market. Aligned with our value-first commercial strategy, we will reduce our spot EDC exposure and focus on longer-term structural relationships, offering higher returns across the cycle.

然而，我們認為，我們無需透過合資企業的複雜性就能策略性地管理我們參與 EDC 市場的行動。秉承價值優先的商業策略，我們將減少現貨出口發展商曝險，專注於長期結構性關係，從而在整個週期中獲得更高的回報。

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we expect seasonally lower demand, and our Chlor Alkali team is focused on preserving ECU values. In support of that, we are taking aggressive steps to adjust our operating rates, which will also help us deliver on our target to reduce working capital.

展望第四季度，我們預計季節性需求會下降，我們的氯鹼團隊正致力於維持 ECU 值。為了實現這一目標，我們正在採取積極措施調整營運速度，這也將有助於我們實現減少營運資本的目標。

Now, let's turn to slide 5 for a look at our Epoxy results. Global Epoxy resin demand remains weak, and we continue to face significant headwinds in both Europe and the US regions, facing subsidized imported resin from Asian producers. US demand has been more resilient than Europe. And with the removal of Epoxy resins from Annex 2 tariff exemptions, we are seeing traction with US price increases.

現在，讓我們翻到第 5 張投影片，看看我們的環氧樹脂結果。全球環氧樹脂需求仍然疲軟，我們在歐洲和美國地區持續面臨巨大的不利因素，面臨來自亞洲生產商的補貼進口樹脂。美國的需求比歐洲更有韌性。隨著環氧樹脂從附件二關稅豁免中移除，我們看到美國的價格上漲趨勢日益明顯。

In spite of these market dynamics, Olin's third quarter formulated solutions volume improved sequentially. Fourth quarter planned maintenance presents a $14 million sequential headwind to Epoxy earnings. As we execute this turnaround safely and efficiently, the Epoxy team will focus on cash management as they reduce year-end inventories.

儘管存在這些市場動態，奧林第三季的配方溶液銷量較上季有所成長。第四季計畫維護將為環氧樹脂業務的收益帶來 1,400 萬美元的季比不利影響。在安全且有效率地執行此轉型過程中，環氧樹脂團隊將專注於現金管理，以減少年末庫存。

Olin's new Stade, Germany supply agreement will provide improved economics for our European production, similar to the benefits from our integrated operations at Freeport. Starting in January 2026, the new agreement is expected to provide an annual adjusted EBITDA benefit of approximately $40 million. With rationalization of capacity in Europe, we are seeing opportunities to grow our participation, and we'll do so at a value that is attractive.

Olin 與德國施塔德簽訂的新供應協議將為我們在歐洲的生產帶來更好的經濟效益，類似於我們在弗里波特的一體化營運所帶來的好處。從 2026 年 1 月起，新協議預計每年可帶來約 4,000 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 收益。隨著歐洲產能的合理化，我們看到了擴大參與的機會，而且我們將以有吸引力的價格參與其中。

Next, we move to slide 6 for an update on our Winchester business. As we discussed last quarter, our commercial ammunition business has been hit by a perfect storm: Rising costs, elevated channel inventories, lower out-the-door retail sales and falling market prices. We estimate that high retail inventories have decreased Winchester commercial sales by approximately 5% to 10% so far this year. In the face of weak consumer sales, retail inventories have been slow to correct.

接下來，我們來看看第 6 張投影片，了解我們溫徹斯特業務的最新進展。正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們的商業彈藥業務受到了完美風暴的衝擊：成本上升、渠道庫存增加、零售出貨量下降以及市場價格下跌。我們估計，今年迄今為止，高零售庫存已使溫徹斯特的商業銷售額下降了約 5% 至 10%。面對疲軟的消費銷售，零售庫存調整緩慢。

As a result of this market environment, commercial margins have dropped dramatically, with half being attributable to lower volume, while the other half is a combination of lower pricing and higher costs. We are seeing some positive pricing trends developing for the fourth quarter. Given the recent run-up in metals and manufacturing costs, commercial margins will not be restored until demand recovers and inventory levels have been rightsized.

在這種市場環境下，商業利潤率大幅下降，其中一半是由於銷售下降，另一半是由於價格下降和成本上升共同造成的。我們看到第四季度出現了一些正面的定價趨勢。鑑於近期金屬和製造成本的上漲，只有當需求恢復、庫存水準調整到合理規模時，商業利潤率才能恢復。

In contrast to weak commercial demand, Winchester's military business continues to show strength. Domestic military and international military demand continues to grow as NATO countries expand their defense budgets. Our Next Generation Squad Weapon ammunition facility project at Lake City is well underway, and we are on course to complete construction in late 2027. In parallel, we are developing and delivering components and equipment to support the Army's Accelerated Fielding plan. Recognizing that the commercial market is not improving as quickly as we had hoped, we are adjusting our operating model to make to order versus make to inventory. As a result, we will see a reduction in Winchester working capital that will be sustained until we see demand improve. As part of this change, we will extend our typical holiday plant shutdowns to further reduce supply and reduce inventory. This will shift Winchester closer to a just-in-time manufacturing model.

與疲軟的商業需求形成鮮明對比的是，溫徹斯特的軍工業務繼續保持強勁勢頭。隨著北約國家增加國防預算，國內軍事和國際軍事需求持續成長。我們在萊克城的下一代班組武器彈藥設施項目進展順利，預計將於 2027 年底完成建設。同時，我們正在開發和交付零件和設備，以支援陸軍的加速部署計畫。鑑於商業市場的發展速度不如我們預期，我們正在調整營運模式，從按庫存生產轉變為按訂單生產。因此，溫徹斯特的營運資金將會減少，這種情況將持續到需求改善為止。作為此次調整的一部分，我們將延長假日期間的工廠停工時間，以進一步減少供應和庫存。這將使溫徹斯特公司更接近即時生產模式。

I'll now turn the call over to Todd Slater for a look at our financial highlights.

現在我將把電話交給托德·斯萊特，讓他來介紹我們的財務亮點。

Thanks, Ken. Let's review our sequential quarterly adjusted EBITDA bridge. Third quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA included a $32 million pretax benefit primarily related to the clean hydrogen production tax credit under Section 45V as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Excluding the Section 45V tax credit, our third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $190 million, which was an 8% sequential improvement.

謝謝你，肯。讓我們回顧一下我們按季度調整後的 EBITDA 數據。2025 年第三季調整後的 EBITDA 包括 3,200 萬美元的稅前收益，主要與 2022 年通貨膨脹削減法案第 45V 節規定的清潔氫生產稅收抵免有關。不計入第 45V 節稅收抵免，我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.9 億美元，季增 8%。

Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls results improved, driven by lower operating costs and higher ethylene dichloride volumes while preserving ECU values as we navigate through this prolonged trough. Our Epoxy business continued to grow its formulated solutions volume as persistent headwinds from subsidized Asian imports impacted both the United States and European markets. As expected, Epoxy's third quarter results included higher operating costs from unabsorbed fixed manufacturing expenses incurred from planned inventory reductions.

氯鹼產品和乙烯基產品的表現有所改善，這得益於營運成本降低和二氯乙烷產量增加，同時在我們度過這段長期低谷期時保持了 ECU 值。儘管來自亞洲進口補貼的持續不利因素影響了美國和歐洲市場，但我們的環氧樹脂業務配方解決方案的銷售仍在持續成長。正如預期的那樣，Epoxy 第三季的業績包括因計劃中的庫存減少而產生的未吸收的固定製造費用導致的營運成本增加。

Winchester's third quarter segment results reflected the continued weakness of commercial ammunition volumes and margins, which more than offset improved military and military project earnings. The typical third quarter seasonal growth in commercial demand was muted.

溫徹斯特第三季業務部門業績反映出商業彈藥銷售和利潤率持續疲軟，這完全抵消了軍用和軍事項目收益的改善。商業需求通常第三季的季節性成長較為平緩。

Now, turning back to the 45V tax credit. We recognize this benefit as a result of our team's dedicated efforts over the last three years. During the third quarter, we received notification from the Department of Energy regarding our provisional carbon dioxide emissions rate, marking a significant milestone for tax credit recognition. The Section 45V tax credit pertains to qualified clean hydrogen produced and either sold or used at certain of our chlor alkali plants. Looking forward, we expect an annual benefit in adjusted EBITDA of $15 million to $20 million for the years 2026 through 2028, with lower amounts through 2032.

現在，讓我們回到 45V 稅收抵免問題。我們認為，這項成果是我們團隊過去三年辛勤努力的成果。第三季度，我們收到了能源部關於我們暫定二氧化碳排放率的通知，這標誌著我們在獲得稅收抵免方面取得了重大進展。第 45V 節稅收抵免適用於我們某些氯鹼廠生產、銷售或使用的合格清潔氫氣。展望未來，我們預計 2026 年至 2028 年每年調整後 EBITDA 將帶來 1,500 萬美元至 2,000 萬美元的收益，到 2032 年收益將有所下降。

Next, let's move to slide 8 for a review of our liquidity. During the third quarter, we fell short of our cash flow and working capital targets, resulting in an increase in net debt for the period. This was primarily due to unforeseen payment delays from the US government related to Lake City military business. These payments were subsequently received in October. For 2025, we continue to expect working capital to be a source of at least $100 million of cash, excluding the timing of tax payments. Consistent with what we previously discussed, by year-end 2025, we expect net debt to be flat with year-end 2024.

接下來，讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片，回顧一下我們的流動性狀況。第三季度，我們的現金流和營運資金目標未能實現，導致該期間淨債務增加。這主要是由於美國政府與萊克城軍事業務相關的款項出現意料之外的延遲支付所致。這些款項已於10月收到。2025 年，我們仍然預計營運資金將至少為 1 億美元現金，不包括稅金支付的時間。正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們預計到 2025 年底，淨債務將與 2024 年底持平。

Finally, we remain committed to our disciplined capital allocation approach, and our priorities are clear. First and foremost, we retain our investment-grade balance sheet. Second, we fund sustaining capital spending to maintain the safe and reliable operation of our assets. And third, we are committed to maintaining our quarterly dividend. And then fourth, any available free cash flow is returned to shareholders through either highly accretive growth opportunities or share buybacks.

最後，我們依然堅持嚴謹的資本配置方法，我們的優先事項也很明確。首先，我們保持了投資等級的資產負債表。其次，我們為維持資產安全可靠運作所需的持續性資本支出提供資金。第三，我們承諾維持季度分紅。第四，任何可用的自由現金流都將透過高增值成長機會或股票回購的方式返還給股東。

Our teams continue to focus on cash generation, maintaining cost discipline and supporting our Beyond250 cost savings initiative. Our strong financial foundation enables Olin to continue executing our value-first commercial approach while adhering to our capital allocation priorities and prudent capital structure with a strong balance sheet and cash flow.

我們的團隊將繼續專注於現金流創造、維持成本控制並支持我們的 Beyond250 成本節約計畫。我們強大的財務基礎使奧林能夠繼續執行我們以價值為先的商業策略，同時堅持我們的資本配置優先事項和審慎的資本結構，並擁有強勁的資產負債表和現金流。

Ken, I'll now hand the call back to you.

肯，現在我把電話交還給你。

Thanks, Todd. Let's finish up with slide 9 and our outlook for the fourth quarter. In our CAPV business, through actions we're taking, we expect to see stable ECU values in the face of seasonally weaker demand. Our Epoxy business remains challenged, but we'll begin to see improvement as we enter the new year and benefits accrue from our new Stade supply agreement, some pricing improvements in the US market and volume gains in Europe following capacity rationalizations.

謝謝你，托德。讓我們以第 9 張幻燈片和我們對第四季的展望作為結尾。在我們的 CAPV 業務中，透過我們正在採取的措施，我們預計即使面臨季節性疲軟的需求，ECU 價值也能保持穩定。我們的環氧樹脂業務仍然面臨挑戰，但隨著新年的到來，我們將開始看到改善，新的 Stade 供應協議、美國市場的一些價格改善以及歐洲產能合理化後的銷售成長都將帶來收益。

In Winchester, we have a very strong legacy and an industry-leading brand that has supported the US and allied militaries for more than 150 years. We will see resilience in this business and are taking actions to accelerate that in the fourth quarter by adjusting our operating model, driving price increases and finding new opportunities in our international military business.

在溫徹斯特，我們擁有非常強大的歷史遺產和領先業界的品牌，150 多年來一直支持美國及其盟國的軍隊。我們將看到這項業務的韌性，並正在採取措施，透過調整我們的營運模式、推動價格上漲以及在我們的國際軍事業務中尋找新的機會，在第四季度加速這一趨勢。

The current trough has been a test of our commercial model and our commitment to operating discipline. We've stayed the course and developed ways to further help ourselves through improvements in our cost structure that are beginning to show benefits. We will provide a more detailed progress report during our fourth quarter earnings call in early 2026.

目前的低谷期是對我們的商業模式和我們對營運紀律的承諾的考驗。我們堅持不懈，並透過改進成本結構來進一步幫助自己，這些改進措施已開始顯現成效。我們將在 2026 年初的第四季財報電話會議上提供更詳細的進度報告。

But as we shared during our Investor Day, our Beyond250 initiative is built upon three pillars: First, the structural rightsizing and cleanup of our production assets. Recent rationalizations have left behind inefficiencies or remnant costs. This will be implemented in close coordination with our planned outages in the coming years. Second, we must streamline our operations and maintenance practices to work more efficiently and reduce our dependency on contractors. Third, we will redouble our efforts to be the industry leader in operating efficiency.

但正如我們在投資者日上分享的那樣，我們的 Beyond250 計劃建立在三大支柱之上：首先，對我們的生產資產進行結構性調整和清理。近期的一些合理化措施遺留了效率低或殘餘成本。這將與我們未來幾年的計劃性停機檢修密切協調實施。其次，我們必須簡化營運和維護流程，以提高工作效率並減少對承包商的依賴。第三，我們將加倍努力，力爭成為營運效率的產業領導者。

These Beyond250 pillars are embedded in every employee's incentive so that we create a culture of ownership and performance-driven accountability that is aligned to our values, including being the safest and most reliable operator in the industry. Finally, during the fourth quarter, we will realize a $40 million EBITDA penalty to reduce inventories and support our value-first commercial strategy. Including this, we expect our fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $110 million to $130 million.

Beyond250 的這些支柱融入每位員工的激勵機制中，從而創造出主人翁精神和績效驅動的責任文化，這與我們的價值觀相一致，包括成為業內最安全、最可靠的運營商。最後，在第四季度，我們將因減少庫存和支持我們以價值為先的商業策略而產生 4000 萬美元的 EBITDA 罰款。包括此項在內，我們預計 2025 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.1 億美元至 1.3 億美元之間。

Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

操作員，我們現在可以開始接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

（操作說明）Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global。

A question around -- I know it's early days to start thinking about 2026, but I mean, if I sit there and take a look at what your guidance implies for 2025, excluding sort of the inventory penalty, you get to around $734 million to $754 million in EBITDA, and that's obviously ex the inventory penalty.

關於 2026 年的問題——我知道現在考慮 2026 年還為時過早，但我的意思是，如果我仔細看看你們對 2025 年的指導意見，不包括庫存罰款，EBITDA 大約在 7.34 億美元到 7.54 億美元之間，這顯然不包括庫存罰款。

So I'm just trying to figure out via self help, via stuff that's in your control, how much of an increment could we see in 2026? Obviously, you guys have the Dow contract in place. There won't be the turnaround in the Epoxy business. And obviously, you guys have the whole cost-cutting side of things as well.

所以，我只是想透過自助的方式，透過你能控制的事情，來弄清楚到 2026 年我們能看到多大的成長？顯然，你們已經簽訂了道瓊斯指數的合約。環氧樹脂產業不會出現好轉。顯然，你們也需要考慮削減成本的問題。

As we look at what we're doing going into the fourth quarter, we've talked a lot about things that we have to do to help ourselves just because we're not seeing the market environment improve really in any of our businesses so far. So the focus on Beyond250 and the cost reductions that we're going to realize there is something that the entire organization is really driving to make sure that we can deliver that. So we've talked about a $70 million to $90 million run rate coming out of this year into next year, and that does include the Dow agreement at Stade, the new agreement that we've got that -- we're going to be seeing that in the P&L in the first quarter. It actually took effect on October 1, but with all of that, we do see some upside to the $70 million to $90 million in 2026, so we're going to be giving you a little bit more color around that in the fourth quarter earnings call at the beginning of the year next year. So stay tuned for that, and we'll give you a little bit more details, but at the end of the day, we've really got to buckle down here and do what we can do to help ourselves.

展望第四季度，我們討論了很多為了幫助自己而必須做的事情，因為到目前為止，我們還沒有看到我們任何業務的市場環境真正有所改善。因此，整個組織都在努力推進 Beyond250 項目，並實現成本削減，以確保我們能夠實現這一目標。所以我們討論過今年到明年 7000 萬到 9000 萬美元的營運率，這其中就包括與 Stade 達成的 Dow 協議，以及我們達成的新協議——我們將在第一季的損益表中看到這一點。實際上，該政策已於 10 月 1 日生效，但考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計到 2026 年，該政策的預期收益將達到 7000 萬美元至 9000 萬美元，因此我們將在明年年初的第四季度財報電話會議上為您詳細介紹這一點。所以請繼續關注，我們會提供更多細節，但歸根結底，我們真的必須腳踏實地，盡我們所能幫助自己。

Todd, do you want to add anything to that?

托德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Hassan, as we look into 2027, you mentioned turnarounds. I'll remind everyone on the call that we do have our one in every three-year major turnaround on our VCM, vinyl chloride monomer unit, that will happen generally in the first half of next year. So that's probably a headwind relative to what we've seen this year.

哈桑，當我們展望 2027 年時，你提到了扭虧為盈。我提醒各位參加電話會議的朋友們，我們每三年會對氯乙烯單體裝置進行一次重大檢修，這通常會在明年上半年進行。所以，相對於我們今年所看到的情況而言，這可能是個不利因素。

Josh Spector at UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I apologize if I missed this earlier, but I just wanted to ask on the 45V credit. I mean, the $32 million in the quarter, how much of that is catch-up for earlier in the year? And really, the question is, what's the ongoing benefit we should be modeling in for Olin into next year or further out?

如果我之前錯過了這條訊息，我深表歉意，但我只是想問一下關於 45V 信用額度的問題。我的意思是，本季的 3200 萬美元，其中有多少是彌補年初的損失？實際上，問題是，我們應該為奧林在明年或更長遠的未來帶來哪些持續的益處？

Hey, Josh. It's Todd. Thanks for the question. Yes, it is ultimately a catch-up. The $32 million, we were finally able to realize that because of getting our final CO2 emissions information from the Department of Energy. We've been working on this candidly for the last three years. As we go forward, we would look at 2026 through 2028, we think you'll see adjusted EBITDA benefit in the $15 million to $20 million range, each of those years.

嘿，喬許。是托德。謝謝你的提問。是的，歸根結底，這是一場追趕。我們最終能夠意識到這筆 3,200 萬美元的費用，是因為我們獲得了能源部最終的二氧化碳排放資訊。坦誠地說，我們過去三年一直在努力研究這個問題。展望未來，我們預計 2026 年至 2028 年，每年的調整後 EBITDA 收益將在 1,500 萬美元至 2,000 萬美元之間。

Matt DeYoe, Bank of America.

馬特·德約，美國銀行。

This is Salvator Tiano filling in for Matt. Can you talk a little bit about the working capital situation in Q3? I think there was a very big increase in some of the working capital buckets. Why this happened then, given that -- is it safe to assume that Q3 operating rates, especially in Chlor Alkali, were better than you expected in the initial guidance? And ultimately, what does this mean for your Q4 operating rates versus your -- how you've been running in the past few years?

這是薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，他代替馬特出場。能否簡要談談第三季的營運資金狀況？我認為某些營運資金類別出現了非常大的成長。那麼，有鑑於此，為什麼會出現這種情況？能否合理假設第三季的營運率，特別是氯鹼業務的營運率，比您在最初預期中的好？最終，這對您第四季度的營運率以及您過去幾年的營運情況意味著什麼？

So listen, let's talk a little bit more detail about this inventory reduction. We're going to take a $40 million penalty in EBITDA in the fourth quarter. What that's going to do is going to free up about $150 million in cash, and that benefit that we're going to see in cash is something that really was built up over the full year. So we've seen increases in working capital in all the businesses. Some of it was back at the beginning of the year when we were expecting demand to be stronger, particularly when you think about Winchester, and we just didn't see the inventory is coming down as fast and now we're going to have to take some aggressive action to reduce that.

那麼，我們來詳細談談這次的庫存削減情況。我們將在第四季度承擔 4000 萬美元的 EBITDA 罰款。這樣做將釋放大約 1.5 億美元的現金，而我們將看到的這筆現金收益實際上是一整年累積起來的。因此，我們看到所有企業的營運資金都有所增加。年初的時候，我們預計需求會更強勁，尤其是溫徹斯特步槍的需求，但我們並沒有看到庫存下降得那麼快，現在我們不得不採取一些積極的措施來減少庫存。

In Chemicals, it's a combination of timing around turnarounds and needing to build some inventory during the third quarter in order to be ready for turnarounds in the fourth quarter. So you're going to see that come back out in the fourth quarter. But frankly, some of it is just us continuing to show discipline and supporting our commercial first or our value-first commercial strategy and being sure that we continue to be disciplined with that.

在化學行業，這涉及到檢修時間安排以及需要在第三季度建立一些庫存，以便為第四季度的檢修做好準備。所以你會看到這種情況在第四節再次出現。但坦白說，其中一些只是我們繼續展現自律，支持我們以商業為先或以價值為先的商業策略，並確保我們繼續堅持這項策略。

So Todd, I don't know if there's anything you want to add related to that?

托德，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only comment I would remind everyone, and thanks for the question, Sal, was that we did have a penalty on working capital at the end of September related to delayed payments from the US government for our Lake City military business. Ultimately, those have been received here in October, but that was candidly the biggest driver by far on why working capital moved up in the third quarter compared to the second.

我唯一想提醒大家的是，感謝 Sal 的提問，我們在 9 月底確實因為美國政府延遲支付我們在萊克城軍事業務的款項而受到了營運資金方面的處罰。最終，這些款項已於 10 月到賬，但坦白說，這才是第三季營運資金較第二季成長的最大驅動因素。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

I'd like to flesh out this $40 million negative impact due to inventories in the fourth quarter. It looks like it's a combination of Chlor Alkali and Winchester. So wondering if you could size it to -- is this more of an Olin issue, or do you feel like the industry overall is holding much too much inventory, so we should expect lower operating rates from the industry overall, and how confident are you that the $40 million is the right number? And then as we start [1Q to '26], you can go back to operating as you normally would?

我想詳細分析一下第四季庫存造成的 4,000 萬美元負面影響。看起來像是氯鹼和溫徹斯特的混合物。所以我想知道您能否將其規模化——這更多是奧林公司的問題，還是您認為整個行業都持有過多的庫存，因此我們應該預期整個行業的運營率會下降？您對 4000 萬美元這個數字有多大信心？然後，從[2026年第一季]開始，你們就可以恢復正常運作了嗎？

So listen, just to add a little bit more color maybe to that EBITDA penalty that we're facing. Like I said, a lot of the working capital build was related to Winchester. And so that's a totally different animal than when you talk about the chemicals value chains and whether the industry there has got too much inventory in the chain.

所以聽著，為了更詳細地說明我們面臨的 EBITDA 處罰，我再補充一點。正如我所說，許多營運資金的累積都與溫徹斯特有關。所以，這與討論化學品價值鏈以及該行業是否存在庫存過多的情況完全不同。

So let me talk about Winchester first. We've been talking about high inventories in the retail chain since this time last year. Those levels of inventory came down at the beginning of the year, but they have not continued to fall. They've sort of leveled off at a relatively high level, and if you couple that with the fact that there was sort of a wave of imports that came in prior to the tariffs of ammunition, that also added to that issue. So Winchester is a bit unique. There is a lot of inventory in the chain there that needs to come out, and what we're going to do is we're not going to continue to use our balance sheet to carry that inventory if that inventory is somewhere else in the chain. That's just what we have to do to be disciplined and support our balance sheet.

那麼，我先來說說溫徹斯特。從去年這個時候起，我們就一直在討論零售連鎖店庫存過高的問題。年初時庫存水準有所下降，但之後並未繼續下降。它們的數量已經穩定在一個相對較高的水平，再加上在對彈藥徵收關稅之前出現了一波進口浪潮，這也加劇了這個問題。所以溫徹斯特有點特殊。供應鏈中有很多庫存需要清理出去，我們打算不再使用我們的資產負債表來持有這些庫存，如果這些庫存位於供應鏈的其他地方。為了保持自律並改善資產負債表，我們必須這樣做。

Now, for Chemicals, it's really hard to have visibility. What I would say right now is I'm not concerned about too much inventory in the chain in the chemicals value chain. That's not something that we've seen, but what I would say is there's always a risk when you get into the fourth quarter because that's seasonally, the weakest quarter. There's always a chance that people do start to pull inventory even if they have low inventories. They can take the inventories really very low, very quickly, and so we want to be prepared for anything here. We want to make sure that we rightsize our inventory levels, really reduce them to the minimum level. At the same time, we are going to reduce operating rates and show the discipline around being able to move the volume at the value that we like. And that strategy is not changing.

現在，對於化學產業來說，要獲得良好的市場曝光度真的很難。我現在想說的是，我並不擔心化學價值鏈中存在過多的庫存。我們還沒有看到這種情況，但我想說的是，進入第四季度總是存在風險，因為從季節性角度來看，第四季是淡季。即使庫存很低，也總有可能有人會開始撤回庫存。他們可以很快地把庫存降到非常低的水平，所以我們要做好應對任何情況的準備。我們希望確保庫存水準合理，真正將其降低到最低水準。同時，我們將降低營運效率，並展現出在以我們想要的價格銷售產品方面的自律精神。這一策略不會改變。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc。

You mentioned opportunities to sign EDC supply agreements. Do you have anything in place today, or is your entire EDC volume on a spot basis? And also, are there any agreements that are fairly close to getting over the finish line soon in this area?

您提到了簽署EDC供應協議的機會。你們今天有任何安排嗎？還是說你們所有的EDC交易都是現貨交易？此外，該領域是否有任何協議即將達成？

So listen, obviously, we are working on more structural term agreements, term contracts for EDC. If you look at the EDC values today, one of the biggest variances we've got versus prior year is the EDC price that we see in the market today. Now, fortunately, we're the cost leader in producing EDC, so we're able to weather that better than others, but when we think about this across the cycle, it does make more sense for us to have more contracted positions than what we have today.

所以，很明顯，我們正在為EDC制定更多結構性的長期協議和長期合約。如果你看一下今天的EDC價值，與去年相比，我們最大的差異之一就是今天市場上的EDC價格。現在，幸運的是，我們在EDC生產方面成本領先，所以我們能夠比其他人更好地應對這種情況，但當我們從整個週期來考慮這個問題時，對我們來說，擁有比現在更多的合約職位確實更有意義。

We do have contracted business today. A lot of that runs through our joint venture with BWA. We announced that we're going to be unwinding that between now and the end of the year. Mitsui has been a great partner but the complexity of running that business through a joint venture versus the value that we were realizing and the option for us to control that channel to market exclusively to ourselves, the trade-offs just were not in our favor. So that was really what drove our decision to unwind that joint venture so that we can go out and make these structural deals.

我們今天確實有已簽訂合約的業務。其中許多內容都貫穿我們與BWA的合資企業。我們宣布，我們將從現在到年底逐步取消這項計劃。三井一直是很好的合作夥伴，但是透過合資企業經營這項業務的複雜性，與我們實現的價值以及我們控制該管道並完全自主銷售的選擇相比，權衡利弊對我們不利。所以，這才是促使我們決定解散合資企業，以便我們能夠出去達成這些結構性交易的真正原因。

We'll still be working with Mitsui as a counterparty. That's not going to change, but we are looking at bigger opportunities to be able to place volume, and we should be able to have more to be able to say about that in the coming weeks, but yes, we are shifting the portfolio, but we will still have an exposure to the spot market. It's not going to go to zero, but it will be less than what we've had in the past.

我們仍將與三井作為交易對手方進行合作。這一點不會改變，但我們正在尋找更大的機會來增加交易量，未來幾週我們應該能夠就此發表更多評論。是的，我們正在調整投資組合，但我們仍然會涉足現貨市場。它不會降到零，但會比我們過去經歷的水平要低。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗銀行。

Could you give us an update on the Radford propellants contract bidding process? And also, maybe an update on your hedging in metals and what you're expecting there?

能否向我們介紹一下拉德福德推進劑合約的招標進度？另外，能否更新一下您在金屬對沖方面的策略以及您的預期？

Yeah, I'll give you a quick update there. Like anything with the government, it's a slow process, and with the government being shut down, it's basically not a running process right now. It's a little bit frustrating when you're dealing with the government here, especially when they are not paying us sometimes, but we're going to continue to look at that as an opportunity. All it is, is a working capital investment for us. It doesn't require any real capital to speak of. They've issued a preliminary RFP. They've received comments from industry, and now, they're going back and they're revising that. So there'll be another draft RFP that's coming out in the not-too-distant future. Let's see what happens with the government shutdown, and then there'll be another iteration, so I don't expect there's going to be anything decided regarding this until late next year at the earliest, which means there probably won't be any transition to a new operator, assuming that's the choice that they make, until sometime in 2027, and I can't predict when that's going to be, but it certainly is an opportunity that we're still very interested in.

好的，我稍後會給你簡要報告一下情況。和政府辦事一樣，這是一個緩慢的過程，而且由於政府停擺，現在基本上已經停止了。與政府打交道確實有點令人沮喪，尤其是有時他們不給我們付款，但我們會繼續把這看作是一個機會。對我們來說，這只是一筆營運資金投資。它幾乎不需要任何實際資金投入。他們已經發布了初步的招標書。他們收到了業界的意見，現在，他們正在重新審視並修改相關內容。因此，不久的將來還會發布另一份招標書草案。讓我們看看政府停擺會如何發展，之後還會出現另一輪討論，所以我預計最早也要到明年年底才會就此事做出任何決定，這意味著，假設他們最終選擇更換運營商，那麼可能要到 2027 年才會進行過渡，我無法預測具體時間，但這無疑是一個我們仍然非常感興趣的機會。

As I said in my prepared comments, Winchester has been a strong supporter of the US and NATO allied militaries over many years. We believe that with our chemical-based core businesses, along with the advantages that we have with our Winchester brand, we're the best person to be able to operate that, but we're going to do it for a value that makes sense for Olin and Olin's shareholders.

正如我在事先準備好的演講稿中所說，多年來，溫徹斯特一直是美國和北約盟軍的堅定支持者。我們相信，憑藉我們以化學品為基礎的核心業務，以及我們擁有的溫徹斯特品牌優勢，我們是經營這家公司的最佳人選，但我們將以對奧林及其股東都合理的價值來運作。

Now, I'll let Todd talk about the metals hedging.

現在，我讓托德來談談金屬避險。

As everyone, I believe, on the call knows, we are a hedger, and we would expect metal costs to be a headwind in 2026 relative to 2025. We do operate at least a rolling four-quarter hedging program, and I happened to look this morning at copper and it was, I don't know, [$5.10]? So as you know, those prices eventually seed into our systems slowly, but do, and copper has been up, so as we think about raw material costs, raw material costs will be a headwind, have been a headwind, and we expect that headwind to continue.

我相信，所有參加電話會議的人都知道，我們採取避險策略，我們預期 2026 年金屬成本將比 2025 年構成不利因素。我們至少實施了一個滾動式四季度套期保值計劃，我今天早上碰巧看了看銅價，結果嘛，我也不知道該怎麼說。[5.10 美元]？如您所知，這些價格最終會緩慢地反映到我們的系統中，但確實如此。銅價一直在上漲，因此，當我們考慮原材料成本時，原材料成本將是一個不利因素，一直以來都是一個不利因素，我們預計這種不利因素將繼續存在。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗集團。

Maybe just on Epoxy. Obviously, still continues to be challenged by some price competitive Asian imports. Maybe you're getting a little protection here that gives you a platform for price, but how should we think about earnings levels into next year? You have some nice savings actions at Stade. You have maybe some incremental volume opportunities with competitors leaving the space in Europe. So just how are you thinking about the framework for next year on Epoxy?

或許只適用於環氧樹脂。顯然，它仍然面臨著來自一些價格具有競爭力的亞洲進口產品的挑戰。也許這裡能提供一些保護，為你提供價格支撐，但我們該如何看待明年的獲利水準呢？Stade有一些不錯的省錢活動。隨著競爭對手退出歐洲市場，你們或許會有一些銷售成長的機會。那麼，您對明年環氧樹脂框架的規劃是怎麼樣的呢？

I hate to get too far out over my skis here, but I'm probably more optimistic on Epoxy than I have been in the last 1.5 years, but that's not because the market is improving. It's really because of the actions that we've taken at Olin over the last few years to be able to rightsize our cost base, rightsize our capacities. We do have a very good integrated business that has allowed us to survive when others can't, and so that's what happens in the trough. You start to see people that are not as competitive, close capacity, until demand begins to recover, and we're positioned very well as that happens, but in the meantime, with all the cost reductions that we're going to realize, both in Europe and frankly, in the US, along with a little bit of a tailwind around tariffs, I do expect that going into next year, we're going to see a pretty significant improvement from a very low level for Epoxy, but I think that's a business where, yeah, I'm going to be very eager to see that improvement next year, which should be quite positive versus this year, and as a percentage, will probably be better than any other business we've got.

我不想在這裡妄下斷言，但我對環氧樹脂的前景可能比過去一年半以來都要樂觀，但這並不是因為市場正在好轉。這實際上是因為我們在過去幾年裡在奧林採取了一系列措施，以合理調整我們的成本基礎和產能。我們擁有非常完善的一體化業務，這使我們能夠在別人無法生存的時候生存下來，這就是低谷時期發生的事情。你會看到一些競爭力下降的企業開始關閉產能，直到需求開始復甦。而我們在這方面已經做好了充分的準備。同時，隨著我們在歐洲和美國（坦白說）即將實現的成本削減，以及關稅方面的一些利好因素，我預計明年環氧樹脂業務將從目前的低水平顯著改善。我認為，我非常期待明年環氧樹脂業務的改善，與今年相比應該會有相當大的提升，而且從百分比來看，可能會比我們其他任何業務都好。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Ken, on slide 14, your ECU profit index was down in Q3 versus Q2, but your Chlor Alkali EBITDA was actually up in Q3 versus Q2, even after the onetime benefit. So why was that?

Ken，在第 14 張幻燈片中，你的 ECU 利潤指數在第三季度比第二季度有所下降，但即使扣除一次性收益，你的氯鹼 EBITDA 在第三季度實際上也比第二季度有所上升。那究竟是為什麼呢？

So listen, that index, obviously, has got a lot of moving parts to it. A big issue with that is mix, and we've seen that in other quarters, and what I'll tell you is it's all just related to mix in the portfolio. So you've seen it sort of going up and down quarter-to-quarter, but it is not something that I expect to see any further deterioration. Like I said, we expect ECU values to continue to be stable into Q4. Nothing that I see is changing that, but depending on which customers are operating plants or taking volume, that number is going to move around, but it is not something right now that is indicating any trend, one way or the other. Stability is the way that I would be thinking about that.

所以，聽著，很明顯，這個指數包含很多變動因素。其中一個大問題是投資組合的組成，我們在其他季度也看到了這一點，我要告訴你們的是，這一切都與投資組合的組成有關。所以你已經看到它每個季度都有波動，但我預計它不會進一步惡化。正如我所說，我們預計 ECU 值在第四季將繼續保持穩定。我目前沒有看到任何改變這種情況的因素，但根據哪些客戶在營運工廠或採購量不同，這個數字會有波動，但目前來看，它並沒有顯示出任何趨勢。我會用「穩定」這個詞來形容這件事。

Pete Osterland, Truist Securities.

皮特‧奧斯特蘭 (Pete Osterland)，Truist 證券公司。

Within Winchester, could you talk a bit more about your plans to shift production towards the international defense markets? Is this intended to be a permanent change in strategy, just given the stronger growth opportunities that you're seeing within defense? And where do you see the revenue mix between commercial and defense going for this business over the medium term?

在溫徹斯特公司內部，您能否再詳細談談將生產轉向國際國防市場的計畫？鑑於您在國防領域看到了更強勁的成長機會，這是否意味著戰略的永久性改變？您認為從中長期來看，該業務的商業和國防收入比例將如何改變？

Pete, thank you for the question. Yeah, if you go back to our Investor Day, we were very intentional talking about growing our defense business, and we have seen very positive developments in that market, especially around the NATO countries increasing the amount of spending that they're going to be or the investments that they're going to make in the coming years for their own defense. There's an opportunity for us to participate in that.

皮特，謝謝你的提問。是的，如果你回顧一下我們的投資者日，我們當時非常重視發展我們的國防業務，而且我們已經看到該市場出現了非常積極的發展，尤其是在北約國家增加未來幾年在國防方面的支出或投資方面。我們有機會參與其中。

Now, there's two things. There's a short term where we're getting a lot of inbound and the backlog for international military is growing quite substantially, and we are actively working with our partners to be able to secure that demand in the orders for the coming year. So we're going to continue to see robust growth in the short term, but we're also thinking more strategically about how do we participate in this in the longer term, and there are ways that we can do that, whether it's through partnerships or long-term supply deals, we're going to be looking at that. We do see that as a strategic opportunity for us.

現在，有兩件事。短期內，我們收到了許多訂單，國際軍方的積壓訂單也大幅成長，我們正在積極與合作夥伴合作，以確保來年的訂單能夠滿足這些需求。因此，短期內我們將繼續看到強勁的成長，但我們也正在更具策略性地思考如何長期參與其中，我們可以透過多種方式來實現這一點，無論是透過合作夥伴關係還是長期供應協議，我們都會對此進行研究。我們認為這對我們來說是一個戰略機會。

We also talked about earlier in this year that the fact that military was going to become a larger part of our portfolio in terms of revenue. That's also driven largely by the project that we've got running at Lake City. So there's a lot of project revenue that's showing up there that's skewing -- it's skewing the sales number for Winchester towards military. It's got a relatively low margin because it's a project-based fee that we're basically earning for executing that project.

今年稍早我們也討論過，軍工業務將在我們收入組合中佔據更大的份額。這很大程度上也是由我們在萊克城所進行的計畫所推動的。因此，有許多項目收入出現在了那裡，這導致溫徹斯特的銷售額向軍方傾斜。它的利潤率相對較低，因為這是按項目收取的費用，我們基本上是透過執行該項目來賺取的。

Now, having said that, I do think that it's going to be a while before we see commercial demand come back. I think we're just continuing to see that consumers and consumer spending is still challenged around discretionary items, such as ammunition, but we will see this growth in international military, so that's going to keep our military portfolio stronger in the portfolio than what we maybe had thought a year ago. Good news is, international military margins are attractive, so we're really excited about that.

不過話雖如此，我認為商業需求的恢復還需要一段時間。我認為我們將繼續看到，消費者和消費支出在非必需品（如彈藥）方面仍然面臨挑戰，但我們將看到國際軍事領域的成長，這將使我們的軍事投資組合比一年前我們可能預想的更加強大。好消息是，國際軍事利潤空間很大，所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

As you think about revenue, you're probably sitting today, 62% military, and the remainder commercial, that is higher than it has been over the last several years. Candidly, I would expect that to tick up a little bit as we move forward with this shift toward more military sales, both internationally as well as project.

當你考慮收入時，你可能會發現，目前軍方收入佔 62%，其餘為商業收入，這個比例比過去幾年都要高。坦白說，隨著我們繼續向更多軍事銷售轉型，無論是在國際上還是在國內，我預計這種情況會略有上升。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

When you think about what needs to happen for a recovery in Chemicals, are you seeing anything that might give you some confidence that there could be a recovery in '26? And then I know you don't talk about operating rates anymore, but how much volume is in the system that could recover? And maybe help us understand the earnings power of that volume now versus the past?

當你思考化工產業復甦需要哪些條件時，你是否看到任何跡象讓你相信該產業會在 2026 年復甦？我知道你們現在不再談論營運率了，但是系統中還有多少容量可以恢復呢？或許還能幫助我們了解當前與過去相比，該交易量帶來的獲利能力變化？

So listen, the fact of the matter is that, like I had said earlier, we are going to continue to adjust our operating rates to meet the demand that we see and manage our working capital in the chemical space accordingly. We are not going to carry inventory in this environment other than for things like turnarounds. So all that I'll tell you is that our operating rates are differentially lower than the rest of the industry, and that shouldn't surprise anybody. That's our operating model, and we're going to continue to execute on that.

所以，聽著，事實是，就像我之前說的那樣，我們將繼續調整營運速度以滿足我們看到的需求，並相應地管理我們在化學領域的營運資金。在這種環境下，除了周轉等特殊情況外，我們不會持有庫存。所以我只能告訴你們，我們的營運率明顯低於業內其他公司，這應該不會讓任何人感到驚訝。這就是我們的營運模式，我們將繼續執行這項模式。

So in terms of what is it going to take to see a recovery, you can focus in first on North America, and you can look at housing. Obviously, housing is a big driver for chemicals, especially a lot of the chemistry that chlorine goes into. And once we see housing starts to really recover, it's anybody's guess when that may occur. I hope it's next year, but right now, I just don't see any signs that really there's a big turnaround in the housing market on the horizon.

所以，要了解經濟復甦需要什麼，首先可以關注北美，然後可以看看住房狀況。顯然，住房是化學物質的重要驅動因素，尤其是許多需要使用氯的化學物質。至於房屋開工量何時真正復甦，誰也無法預料。我希望明年就能看到轉機，但就目前而言，我看不出房地產市場即將有任何重大改善的跡象。

That's sort of North America. I think that's what's going to drive the market here in North America, but when you think beyond our shores and you go to Europe or into Asia, you've got to see both of those markets begin to grow as well, and we haven't seen any signs yet of consumption really taking off particularly in China, the largest market to be able to absorb a lot of this new capacity that they've been bringing on. So they are a big exporter now of PVC, which makes them a bigger exporter of things like caustic, and all of that is going to need to find a home with demand growth, so we need to see the global economy growing as well to be able to help absorb a lot of that additional supply that's coming on in China.

那有點像北美。我認為這將是推動北美市場發展的因素，但當你把目光投向歐洲或亞洲以外的地方時，你會發現這兩個市場也開始成長，而我們還沒有看到任何消費真正騰飛的跡象，尤其是在中國——這個能夠吸收大量新增產能的最大市場。所以他們現在是聚氯乙烯（PVC）的主要出口國，這使得他們也成為燒鹼等產品的更大出口國，而所有這些產品都需要隨著需求的增長而找到銷路，因此我們需要看到全球經濟也增長，以便能夠幫助吸收中國即將增加的大量供應。

I know we've talked about a lot about anti involution and all of those things. Those are great theories, and they're great policies that I hope we see the Chinese government begin to execute on, but so far, it's been not as much directed to chemicals as we had hoped that it would be. Maybe that changes in the new year, but right now, we need to see higher demand in Asia and some more rationalization there as well.

我知道我們已經討論了很多關於反內捲化以及所有那些事情。這些都是很好的理論，也是很好的政策，我希望看到中國政府開始執行，但到目前為止，這些政策還沒有像我們希望的那樣更多地針對化學品。也許新年後情況會有所改變，但就目前而言，我們需要看到亞洲的需求增加，以及那裡的市場更加合理化。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Ken, I was wondering if you could provide an update on your thoughts about the US caustic soda market? On slide 9, it appears as though you're baking in some price improvement for caustic in the fourth quarter. Maybe you could speak to how much of that is seasonal uplift as chlorine operating rates or demand presumably comes down seasonally versus -- any cyclical or structural uplift that you may see unfolding in caustic?

Ken，我想請你談談你對美國燒鹼市場的看法？從第 9 張投影片來看，你似乎已經將第四季腐蝕性物質價格的改善預期納入考量。或許您可以談談其中有多少是季節性增長（因為氯氣運行率或需求量通常會隨季節下降），又有多少是您在腐蝕性物質領域可能看到的任何週期性或結構性增長？

Yeah, so we are expecting to see higher values for caustic in the fourth quarter. As I said in the prepared remarks, the caustic market is relatively stable, so we have seen some softening around pulp and paper, but we continue to see a robust market around alumina, and if you look at the aluminum market, prices for aluminum still are holding up quite well, which indicates healthy demand, and that's a very positive thing for caustic.

是的，所以我們預計第四季度腐蝕性物質的價格會更高。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，燒鹼市場相對穩定，因此我們看到紙漿和造紙市場出現了一些疲軟，但氧化鋁市場仍然強勁，而且如果你看看鋁市場，鋁價仍然保持良好，這表明需求健康，這對燒鹼來說是一個非常積極的信號。

So the demand side, I would say, stability is the key word. On the supply side, yes, you're going to see less supply in the fourth quarter. Some of that is going to be related to some of the things, some of the actions that we're taking with our portfolio. Some of it is also related to other industry outages that normally happen in the fourth quarter, that's going to be the case here as well. So between lower demand for chlorine derivatives, which is naturally going to pull down operating rates, and the normal sort of seasonal turnarounds that occur in the fourth quarter, that's going to restrict supply, and that should give support for caustic values in the fourth quarter.

所以，就需求方面而言，我認為穩定性是關鍵。從供應方面來看，是的，第四季供應量將會減少。其中一些與我們正在對投資組合採取的一些措施有關。其中一些也與第四季度通常發生的其他行業停工有關，這次的情況也是如此。因此，由於對氯衍生物的需求下降（這自然會拉低開工率），加上第四季度正常的季節性檢修，這將限制供應，這應該會在第四季度支撐燒鹼價格。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

You talked about a large turnaround in VCM. I think this year, your forecasted turnaround costs are $125 million. Is maybe something like $175 million next year, up $50 million, a reasonable first draft?

你提到了VCM的巨大轉變。我認為今年你們預計的檢修費用是 1.25 億美元。明年預算大概是 1.75 億美元，比去年增加 5,000 萬美元，這個初步方案是否合理？

So listen, turnarounds this year was pretty heavy. We are going to be updating our modeling data for 2026 at our fourth quarter earnings call here coming up at the beginning of the year, but that is a very large turnaround for us. It happens every three years, like Todd had mentioned, but there are other puts and takes as well. We're currently finalizing our schedule for turnarounds in 2026. So I don't have a final number to give you today. Some of that is still moving around, and once we do, like I said, we will get you a new outlook for 2026 at the beginning of the year.

所以聽著，今年的轉虧為盈幅度相當大。我們將在年初舉行的第四季財報電話會議上更新 2026 年的模型數據，但這對我們來說是一個非常大的轉變。就像托德提到的那樣，這種情況每三年發生一次，但除此之外還有其他的買賣交易。我們目前正在敲定 2026 年的檢修計畫。所以我今天無法提供最終數字。有些事情還在調整中，一旦調整完成，就像我說的，我們會在年初為大家帶來 2026 年的新展望。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Wondering if you could just talk a little bit -- Todd, I know you went through your capital allocation priorities, but if we look at trailing 12-month leverage at the end of the year based on the fourth quarter EBITDA guidance, it pushes you close to 4, so does that change anything in terms of what you're going to be able to do? Are you going to continue to repurchase stock or are you going to hold off a little bit and see how 2026 develops? How should we be thinking about that in terms of your desire to maintain your investment-grade credit rating?

托德，我想請你簡單談談——我知道你已經考慮過你的資本配置優先事項，但如果我們根據第四季度 EBITDA 指引來看一下年底的過去 12 個月槓桿率，這將使你的槓桿率接近 4，那麼這會對你未來的行動產生任何影響嗎？您打算繼續回購股票，還是打算暫時按兵不動，看看2026年的發展？從您希望維持投資等級信用評級的角度來看，我們應該如何看待這個問題？

Yeah. Thanks for the question. We would expect, as we've said, to have a significant cash flow in the fourth quarter and be able to reduce debt back to even where we started the year. So net debt flat year-over-year. We have clearly curtailed the level of share repurchases this year compared to what we have done over the last several years. I think you saw us buy $10 million the last couple of quarters. So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't continue at a modest pace, but we are going to clearly prioritize that cash flow that we generated in the fourth quarter toward our reduction of debt from where we sit today.

是的。謝謝你的提問。正如我們之前所說，我們預計第四季將有大量現金流，並能夠將債務減少到年初的水平。因此，淨債務與上年持平。與過去幾年相比，我們今年的股票回購規模已經明顯縮減。我想你們都看到了，我們在過去幾個季度裡斥資 1000 萬美元進行了採購。因此，如果我們不能繼續保持溫和的成長速度，我不會感到驚訝，但我們將明確地把第四季度產生的現金流優先用於減少我們目前的債務。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC。

You guys are roughly at a $700 million annualized EBITDA run rate here, and then we've seen kind of flattish chlor alkali index numbers. So what do you think it's going to take you to get to maybe $1 billion? Is that maybe roughly $50 million in Epoxy and Winchester uplift and then maybe $200 million or so in chlor alkali, and how does that -- maybe you can help us bridge that gap? That would be great.

你們目前的年化 EBITDA 運作率約為 7 億美元，而且我們看到氯鹼指數也比較穩定。那你認為你需要做些什麼才能達到10億美元的目標？這大概意味著環氧樹脂和溫徹斯特樹脂的提升需要大約 5000 萬美元，而氯鹼的提升需要大約 2 億美元，那麼——也許您能幫助我們彌合這個差距？那太好了。

Listen, if you just think about where we are year-to-date, the biggest delta versus prior year was, or is, Winchester. So Chlor Alkali has held up quite well, and that's a really positive thing for us as a company. It's one of our -- it is, as Todd says, the engine that drives the bus, and so I'm very happy to see that. So yes, you're going to see -- over time, you're going to see values improve off of trough levels, and with our operating rate leverage that we have, that's where you've got the biggest leverage right now in the portfolio overall. There will be a recovery in Winchester at some point. We've got to get through some of these cost headwinds, and we've got to get to a point where we see stronger consumer spending for discretionary items improve.

聽著，如果你看看我們今年到目前為止的情況，與去年相比變化最大的就是溫徹斯特。所以氯鹼的表現相當不錯，這對我們公司來說是一件非常正面的事情。這是我們——正如托德所說，它是驅動巴士的引擎，所以我很高興看到這一點。所以，是的，隨著時間的推移，你會看到價值從低谷水平有所改善，而且憑藉我們目前的營運槓桿，這正是你目前在整個投資組合中獲得最大槓桿的地方。溫徹斯特終究會復甦的。我們必須克服這些成本方面的不利因素，並且必須看到消費者在非必需品上的支出有所改善。

I'm not sure that we're going to see that in the short term, but the good news is we are, and the Winchester team is very focused on adjusting their operating model to the new environment that they're in. We did not think we would be here a year ago. We thought we were going to see demand recovering in 2025, and we just have not seen that. We've seen it go the other way, and so we'll adjust that model, and I expect that we'll start to see some recovery there, but again, I go back to what I said earlier on Epoxy. I'm probably more optimistic on Epoxy than any other business right now. Not because, again, we're seeing lots of positive signals in demand in the market. That is still challenging, but with rationalization of capacity that's happening in the industry, some of the challenges that you see with higher glycerin costs in Asia, which is putting a floor under pricing, you get the tariff headwinds, you get the self-help that we've been implementing over the last several years, we start to see some really positive momentum into next year for the Epoxy business. So that's kind of how I think about where you're going to see the improvements going into 2026, and from there, I think things are going to move higher, but it just depends on what the rate of change is going to be, largely dependent on what's the global economy doing as well.

我不確定短期內我們是否能看到這種情況，但好消息是我們正在看到，溫徹斯特團隊正非常專注於調整他們的營運模式以適應他們所處的新環境。一年前，我們根本沒想到會走到今天這一步。我們原以為需求會在 2025 年復甦，但我們並沒有看到這種情況。我們已經看到情況朝著相反的方向發展，所以我們會調整這個模型，我預計我們會開始看到一些復甦，但是，我還是要回到我之前關於環氧樹脂的說法。到目前為止，我對環氧樹脂行業的樂觀程度可能超過了對其他任何行業的樂觀程度。並非因為我們再次看到市場需求方面有許多正面訊號。這仍然充滿挑戰，但隨著行業內產能的合理化，以及亞洲甘油成本上漲帶來的一些挑戰（這限制了價格），關稅方面的阻力，再加上我們過去幾年一直在實施的自助措施，我們開始看到環氧樹脂業務在明年迎來一些非常積極的發展勢頭。所以，這就是我對 2026 年發展趨勢的看法，我認為從那以後，情況會越來越好，但這取決於變化的速度，而變化的速度很大程度上也取決於全球經濟的狀況。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

In light of the slower production outlook for Winchester, how are things going on the AMMO acquisition? And do you still expect to realize -- I think it was previous guidance was about $5 million EBITDA in the back half of the year from AMMO. Is that still realistic?

有鑑於溫徹斯特的生產前景較為緩慢，AMMO的收購進度如何？您是否仍預期實現——我認為先前的預期是 AMMO 在下半年實現約 500 萬美元的 EBITDA？這現在還現實嗎？

Listen, we still feel very positive. When we look at the business case around that acquisition and what we had talked about before, the synergies with the capability to build shell cases at that facility has proven to be as good, if not even a little bit better than what we thought, so the synergies that we talked about, yes, very confident in delivering them not just for this year, but that $40 million level in three years' time, we feel very positive about that.

聽著，我們仍然感到非常樂觀。當我們審視此次收購的商業案例以及我們之前討論過的內容時，該工廠製造外殼的能力所帶來的協同效應已被證明與我們預想的一樣好，甚至更好一些。因此，我們談到的協同效應，是的，我們非常有信心不僅在今年實現，而且在三年內達到 4000 萬美元的水平，我們對此感到非常樂觀。

The asset is in great shape. The employees have really been great. Coming into Winchester, I think they're excited to be part of the Winchester brand, and that has been a very positive acquisition for us. So we feel really good about it.

該資產狀況良好。員工們真的非常棒。我認為他們加入溫徹斯特後，會很高興成為溫徹斯特品牌的一部分，這對我們來說是一次非常積極的收購。所以我們對此感到非常滿意。

Roger Spitz, Bank of America.

羅傑‧斯皮茨，美國銀行。

Todd, how should we expect to see the clean hydrogen benefit in EBITDA? Will you start putting into EBITDA, maybe 25% each quarter? Or will you periodically be showing us a bigger [once in a] year number in the EBITDA?

Todd，我們該如何預期清潔氫能對 EBITDA 產生效益？你們會開始將資金投入 EBITDA 嗎？例如每季投入 25%？或者你們會定期（一年一次）向我們展示更高的 EBITDA 數據嗎？

You should start now that we have received the real -- the key determining factor, which was our emissions information from the Department of Energy. You should start to see the 45V tax credit just be included as part of our normal earnings as a reduction to cost of goods sold every quarter, so it won't be called out like it is today. This was really the catch-up for this year because we finally got the emissions data, so as you think about next year and the next three years of a $15 million to $20 million benefit, that will just run through as a reduction to cost of goods sold on a quarterly basis.

既然我們已經收到了真正的——關鍵的決定性因素，也就是我們從能源部獲得的排放訊息，現在就應該開始了。您應該會看到 45V 稅收抵免作為我們正常收入的一部分，每季從銷售成本中扣除，因此不會像現在這樣單獨列出。今年我們終於拿到了排放數據，所以這實際上是對今年的一次補上。考慮到明年以及未來三年1500萬至2000萬美元的收益，這筆收益將以季度銷售成本減少的形式體現出來。

Thank you. As there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing comments.

謝謝。由於沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我把會議交還給肯·萊恩，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Rocco. And listen, thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We appreciate your interest in Olin, and we look forward to speaking with you at the beginning of the year next year. We wish you all a very safe and prosperous week. Thank you.

謝謝你，羅科。最後，謝謝大家今天早上收看我們的節目。我們感謝您對奧林公司的關注，並期待明年年初與您洽談。祝大家有個平安順利的一週。謝謝。

Thank you. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。感謝各位蒞臨今天的報告會。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。