Olin Corp (OLN) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Olin Corporation's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加奧林公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.

請注意，本次活動正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給奧林公司投資者關係總監史蒂夫·基南。請繼續，史蒂夫。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's fourth-quarter 2025 results. Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides as well as the question-and-answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected.

謝謝接線生。各位早安。感謝您今天與我們一起回顧奧林公司 2025 年第四季的業績。請注意，今天的討論，以及相關的幻燈片和隨後的問答環節，將包含有關未來業績的估計或預期的陳述。請注意，這些都是前瞻性陳述，奧林公司的實際表現可能與預測績效有重大差異。

Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's fourth-quarter earnings press release.

可能導致實際結果與我們的預測存在差異的一些因素，已在最新的 10-K 表格的「風險因素」部分以及昨天的第四季度收益新聞稿中進行了詳細描述，但未作任何限制。

A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under past events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under press releases.

今天的會議記錄和幻燈片副本將在我們網站的「投資者」版塊的「過往活動」中提供。我們的獲利新聞稿及相關財務資料及資訊可於新聞稿欄位下查閱。

With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO; and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, and then we'll look forward to taking your questions. In order to give everyone an opportunity, we will limit participants to one question with no follow-ups.

今天早上和我在一起的是奧林公司總裁兼執行長肯·萊恩，以及奧林公司首席財務長托德·斯萊特。我們先作一些準備好的發言，然後期待回答大家的問題。為了給每個人機會，我們將限制每位參與者只能提一個問題，不設後續問題。

I'll now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane.

現在我將把電話交給奧林公司總裁兼執行長肯·萊恩。

Thanks, Steve, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. Let's start with slide 3 and review our fourth-quarter highlights. As we previously announced, our fourth quarter came in significantly below our expectations. In December, we experienced operational issues related to an extended turnaround of our Freeport, Texas coordinated organics assets and third-party raw material supply constraints, both of which impacted our chlor alkali assets. At the same time, we also experienced a sharp decline in chlorine pipeline demand in an already seasonally weaker quarter.

謝謝史蒂夫，也謝謝今天所有到場的各位。讓我們從第 3 張投影片開始，回顧一下第四季的亮點。正如我們之前宣布的那樣，我們第四季度的業績遠低於預期。12 月，我們遇到了與德克薩斯州弗里波特協調有機資產的長期檢修和第三方原材料供應限制相關的營運問題，這兩件事都影響了我們的氯鹼資產。同時，在原本就屬於季節性淡季的季度，氯氣管道需求也出現了急劇下降。

During the quarter, we were able to preserve our ECU values by staying disciplined with our value-first commercial approach, and we also announced the long-term EDC supply agreement with Braskem, which provides a higher value to both parties by integrating the low-cost producer of EDC with the leader in PVC in Brazil. In addition, we've expanded our infrastructure footprint in Brazil, which enables us to grow our caustic sales there in 2026.

本季度，我們透過堅持以價值為先的商業策略，保持了我們的 ECU 值。此外，我們也宣布與 Braskem 達成長期 EDC 供應協議，將低成本 EDC 生產商與巴西 PVC 領導者整合，為雙方帶來更高的價值。此外，我們擴大了在巴西的基礎設施規模，這將使我們能夠在 2026 年實現巴西燒鹼銷售的成長。

In our Epoxy business, we were able to contract for significant growth in our European business, which we'll begin to benefit from in the first quarter of 2026. This is a result of our commercial team's successful strategy to position Olin as the last integrated supplier of Epoxy in Europe, providing reliable, secure supply to local customers in the face of continued headwinds from subsidized Asian producers.

在我們的環氧樹脂業務方面，我們已與歐洲業務簽訂了大幅增長的合同，我們將在 2026 年第一季開始從中受益。這是由於我們的商業團隊成功地將奧林定位為歐洲最後一家環氧樹脂一體化供應商，在亞洲生產商持續獲得補貼的情況下，為當地客戶提供可靠、安全的供應。

In our Winchester business, we took aggressive action to accelerate inventory reductions across our system and began efforts to right-size our cost structure in response to lower commercial ammunition demand. Cash generation is a high priority for Olin, especially in the trough environment that we're in. I'm very proud of how our team has responded and through actions that we took, we were able to generate $321 million of operating cash flow and hold net debt flat versus year-end 2024.

在溫徹斯特業務中，我們採取了積極的措施，加快了整個系統的庫存削減，並開始努力調整成本結構，以應對商業彈藥需求的下降。現金流的產生是奧林公司的首要任務，尤其是在我們目前所處的低迷環境下。我為我們團隊的應對方式感到非常自豪，透過我們採取的行動，我們實現了 3.21 億美元的營運現金流，並將淨債務與 2024 年底相比保持持平。

Let's turn to slide 4 for a closer look at our chlor alkali products and vinyls results. Macro conditions remain challenging. Merchant chlorine demand remains under pressure through this extended trough as subsidized Asian chlorine derivatives flood export markets. Since 2019, China exports of titanium dioxide, urethanes, epoxies, crop protection chemicals, and PVC have grown 300% to 600% placing significant pressure on US chlorine derivative customers.

讓我們翻到第 4 張幻燈片，仔細看看我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基產品的效果。宏觀經濟情勢依然充滿挑戰。儘管市場長期處於低迷狀態，但由於亞洲補貼的氯衍生物湧入出口市場，商業氯需求仍面臨壓力。自 2019 年以來，中國二氧化鈦、聚氨酯、環氧樹脂、農作物保護化學品和 PVC 的出口增加了 300% 至 600%，給美國氯衍生物客戶帶來了巨大的壓力。

As you would expect in a trough environment, we are already seeing chlor alkali capacity rationalization in Europe, Latin America, and the US, which should accelerate operating rates as demand recovers. Olin has done a great job of preserving our ECU values and remains committed to our value-first approach, and we are well positioned when markets recover from the trough.

正如你所預料的那樣，在低迷時期，我們已經看到歐洲、拉丁美洲和美國的氯鹼產能正在進行合理化調整，隨著需求的復甦，這將加快產能開工率。Olin 在維護我們的 ECU 價值觀方面做得非常出色，並且始終堅持價值至上的原則，因此當市場從低谷復甦時，我們已經做好了充分的準備。

As we look ahead to the first quarter, we'll continue to face headwinds related to power and raw materials. As a result of Winter Storm Fern, we proactively shut down several of our Gulf Coast assets, which will increase our first quarter costs. In addition, we'll see higher turnaround costs as we begin our VCM turnaround at our Freeport, Texas site. This is the single largest turnaround that Olin executes and occurs every three years.

展望第一季度，我們將繼續面臨與電力和原材料相關的不利因素。由於冬季風暴弗恩的影響，我們主動關閉了我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的幾處資產，這將增加我們第一季的成本。此外，由於我們在德克薩斯州弗里波特工廠開始進行 VCM 檢修，我們將面臨更高的檢修成本。這是奧林公司執行的最大規模的轉型，每三年進行一次。

Global caustic soda demand remains healthy, led by alumina, water treatment, and pulp and paper. Olin ended 2025 with very low inventories, and we're seeing good momentum on our caustic soda price increase. As seasonal demand returns this spring, already low inventories and planned industry turnarounds are expected to further tighten caustic supply.

全球燒鹼需求依然旺盛，主要需求來自氧化鋁、水處理以及紙漿和造紙業。奧林公司2025年底庫存非常低，我們看到燒鹼價格上漲勢頭良好。隨著春季季節性需求的回歸，本已較低的庫存和計劃中的行業檢修預計將進一步收緊腐蝕性物質的供應。

Our full year 2026 chlor alkali outlook remains challenging. We expect global vinyls pricing will remain under pressure. Rising US natural gas, power and feedstock costs will present a headwind in contrast to falling global oil prices serving to erode the US cost advantage.

我們對2026年全年氯鹼市場前景的展望仍充滿挑戰。我們預計全球黑膠唱片價格將持續承壓。與全球油價下跌形成鮮明對比的是，美國天然氣、電力和原料成本的上漲將對美國的成本優勢構成不利影響，進而削弱美國的成本優勢。

In the near term, Olin faces stranded costs of approximately $70 million, resulting from Dow's recent closure of their Freeport propylene oxide plant. This cost burden will be offset by our Beyond 250 structural cost reductions, which I'll discuss shortly.

短期內，由於陶氏化學最近關閉了位於弗里波特的環氧丙烷工廠，奧林公司將面臨約 7,000 萬美元的擱淺成本。我們將透過「超越 250」計畫的結構性成本削減來抵銷這一成本負擔，我稍後會詳細討論。

Now let's turn to slide 5 for a look at our Epoxy results. Our fourth-quarter Epoxy results sequentially increased due to improved product mix, allylic, and aromatics margins, partially offset by higher turnaround and seasonally lower demand.

現在讓我們翻到第 5 張投影片，看看我們的環氧樹脂效果。由於產品組合、烯丙基和芳烴利潤率的改善，我們第四季度的環氧樹脂業績環比增長，但部分被更高的周轉率和季節性較低的需求所抵消。

As we look ahead to the first quarter, we do expect our Epoxy business to return to profitability, although at a low level. This will be realized through actions we have taken by growing our participation in the European market, realizing lower costs at our Stade, Germany site and lower turnaround costs. As we look out further, structural changes in our cost position, recent European Epoxy chain plant closures, and continued growth in our formulated solutions portfolio will support a return to profitability for 2026 as well.

展望第一季度，我們預計環氧樹脂業務將恢復獲利，儘管獲利水準可能較低。我們將透過以下行動來實現這一目標：擴大我們在歐洲市場的份額，降低我們在德國施塔德工廠的成本和周轉成本。展望未來，成本結構的變化、近期歐洲環氧樹脂產業鏈工廠的關閉以及配方解決方案組合的持續成長，都將支持我們在 2026 年恢復獲利。

Over the past three years, Olin's Epoxy business has remained focused on cost reductions. In that time, we've reduced our global Epoxy cash costs by about 19%. Our most recent action was this month's closure of our Guarujá, Brazil Epoxy plants. This shutdown is expected to deliver $10 million of annual structural savings.

過去三年，奧林公司的環氧樹脂業務一直專注於降低成本。在此期間，我們的全球環氧樹脂現金成本降低了約 19%。我們最近的舉措是本月關閉了位於巴西瓜魯雅的環氧樹脂工廠。此次停工預計每年可節省1000萬美元的結構性成本。

Also, in 2025, we continue to deliver on our Formulated Solutions sales growth. These solutions enable AI chips to better manage heat and conductivity that allow lightweight wind blades to exceed 500 feet in length and that serve as adhesives in some of the most challenging environments and applications. We will continue to benefit from that growth in 2026.

此外，在 2025 年，我們繼續實現配方解決方案銷售成長的目標。這些解決方案使人工智慧晶片能夠更好地管理熱量和導熱性，從而使輕型風力葉片的長度超過 500 英尺，並在一些最具挑戰性的環境和應用中用作黏合劑。2026年我們將繼續受益於此成長。

Now please turn to slide 6 for an update on our Winchester business. During the fourth quarter, Winchester took aggressive action to adjust its operating model to reflect lower commercial ammunition demand and significantly reduced inventory. As expected, we realized higher military and military project sales, which was offset by these lower commercial sales and higher metals and operating costs. Winchester's first-quarter priority will be the implementation of our commercial ammunition price increase. Our new pricing is expected to offset the majority of 2025 cost escalation. As we begin 2026, commercial shipments will continue to be made to order and subject to our increased pricing.

現在請翻到第 6 張投影片，了解我們溫徹斯特業務的最新進展。第四季度，溫徹斯特採取積極措施調整其營運模式，以應對較低的商業彈藥需求並大幅減少庫存。正如預期的那樣，我們的軍工產品和軍工項目銷售額有所增長，但這被較低的商業銷售額以及較高的金屬和運營成本所抵消。溫徹斯特公司第一季的首要任務是實施商業彈藥價格上漲計畫。我們新的定價策略預計將抵銷 2025 年大部分的成本上漲。2026 年開始，商業出貨將繼續按訂單進行，並適用我們提高後的價格。

As we look back at 2025, we've seen a significant decline in demand for commercial ammunition, back to pre-COVID levels. In response, our Winchester team has taken the necessary actions to align our production capacity with today's reduced demand. We've eliminated shifts, reduced headcount, and restricted overtime across all Winchester plants.

展望 2025 年，我們發現商業彈藥的需求大幅下降，回到了新冠疫情前的水平。為此，我們的溫徹斯特團隊已採取必要措施，調整產能以適應當前需求的下降。我們已經取消了溫徹斯特所有工廠的輪班制度，減少了員工人數，並限制了加班時間。

At the same time, ammunition imports have slowed dramatically in the face of US tariffs as high as 50%. Last year, imported ammunition satisfied approximately 12% of US demand. In the most recent September import data, imports from Brazil, which typically is the largest importer, have disappeared completely.

同時，由於美國徵收高達 50% 的關稅，彈藥進口大幅放緩。去年，進口彈藥約占美國需求的12%。在最新的9月進口數據顯示，來自巴西（通常是最大的進口國）的進口完全消失了。

Domestic and international military sales continue to grow as NATO countries expand their defense budgets and the US increases its own defense spending. Our Next-Generation Squad Weapon project remains on schedule and will be the most modern and sophisticated small-caliber ammunition plant in the world.

隨著北約國家擴大國防預算以及美國增加國防開支，國內外軍售持續成長。我們的下一代班組武器項目仍在按計劃進行，並將建成世界上最現代化、最先進的小口徑彈藥工廠。

Winchester's 2026 outlook still faces significant cost headwinds from higher copper, brass and propellent costs. Winchester 2026 tailwinds include expected sales growth across domestic military, international military, and military projects. Commercial volumes and pricing are also expected to improve during 2026. Retail sales have begun to show year-over-year improvement, albeit over a low baseline, and retailer inventories have come down significantly.

溫徹斯特公司 2026 年的業績展望仍面臨銅、黃銅和推進劑成本上漲帶來的重大成本阻力。2026 年溫徹斯特的利多因素包括國內軍事、國際軍事和軍事項目的預期銷售成長。預計2026年商業銷售和價格也將有所改善。儘管基數較低，但零售銷售額已開始出現年比改善，零售商庫存也大幅下降。

Let's turn to slide 7 for a high-level view of our Beyond250 structural cost savings program. Olin's Beyond250 structural cost reduction program focuses on the identification and removal of inefficiencies. During our 2024 Investor Day, each Olin business made a cost-savings commitment, and we are focused on delivering these savings as quickly and efficiently as possible, while maintaining safe and reliable performance of our assets.

讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片，來了解我們的 Beyond250 結構性成本節約計畫的概況。奧林公司的 Beyond250 結構性成本削減計畫著重於識別和消除低效環節。在 2024 年投資者日上，奧林集團旗下每個業務部門都做出了節約成本的承諾，我們致力於以最快、最有效的方式實現這些節約，同時保持資產的安全可靠運作。

In 2025, we delivered $44 million in structural cost savings, and we expect to add an incremental $100 million to $120 million of annual Beyond250 savings during 2026, spread across our three businesses. As I discussed last year, we've enlisted outside expertise to help review our organization and processes against industry best practices. We've begun to improve efficiency at our largest site in Freeport, Texas. By streamlining our work processes, we've already been able to achieve a meaningful reduction in staffing.

2025 年，我們實現了 4,400 萬美元的結構性成本節約，預計 2026 年，我們將透過 Beyond250 計劃，在三大業務領域每年額外節省 1 億至 1.2 億美元。正如我去年所討論的，我們已聘請外部專家，根據行業最佳實踐來審查我們的組織和流程。我們已開始提高位於德克薩斯州弗里波特的最大工廠的效率。透過簡化工作流程，我們已經實現了人員的大幅減少。

Through this exercise, we've identified many key performance metrics and gaps to close. For example, our contractor "Time on Tools", was well below industry best practice and our overall reliance on contractors was excessive. With our new organization, work processes, and performance tracking, we have clear line of sight to deliver these additional cost savings in 2026. Our Freeport plant is the pilot for this improvement program, which we're now rolling out across our other global sites.

透過這項練習，我們已經確定了許多關鍵績效指標和需要彌補的差距。例如，我們的承包商「工具使用時間」遠低於行業最佳實踐，我們對承包商的整體依賴程度過高。憑藉我們新的組織架構、工作流程和績效追蹤機制，我們有明確的計畫在 2026 年實現這些額外的成本節約。我們的弗里波特工廠是這項改善計畫的試點工廠，我們現在正在全球其他工廠推廣這項計畫。

At the same time, Winchester has been right-sizing their staffing and operations to reflect lower levels of commercial ammunition demand. Both of these efforts combined have resulted in a reduction of more than 300 employee and contractor positions during the second half of 2025. We expect to realize a similar level in 2026, as we implement the same efficiency measures at our other sites.

與此同時，溫徹斯特公司一直在調整其人員和營運規模，以應對商業彈藥需求的下降。這兩項措施加在一起，使得2025年下半年員工和承包商職位減少了300多個。我們預計到 2026 年將達到類似的水平，因為我們將在其他工廠實施相同的效率提升措施。

In the first quarter of 2026, we'll begin to see the benefits of our new supply agreement at our Stade, Germany site. We expect to realize $40 million to $50 million of savings related to that in our Epoxy business through the year. As mentioned earlier, Dow's closure of its Freeport propylene oxide plant has created a $70 million stranded cost headwind for Olin. By optimizing our power supply, we've already managed to offset approximately $20 million of that stranded cost.

2026 年第一季度，我們將開始看到我們在德國施塔德工廠的新供應協議帶來的好處。我們預計今年環氧樹脂業務將因此節省 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。如前所述，陶氏化學關閉其位於弗里波特的環氧丙烷工廠，給了奧林公司 7000 萬美元的擱淺成本不利影響。透過優化電力供應，我們已經成功抵消了大約 2000 萬美元的擱淺成本。

Earlier this month, we announced the closure of our Epoxy production plant in Brazil. We'll be able to more cost effectively serve our customers there with supply from either Freeport or Stade, both of which are vertically integrated with better cost structures. As a result of this action, we expect to realize a $10 million annual benefit.

本月初，我們宣布關閉位於巴西的環氧樹脂生產廠。透過 Freeport 或 Stade 的供貨，我們將能夠以更具成本效益的方式為當地客戶提供服務，這兩家公司都實現了垂直整合，成本結構更優。這項措施預計每年可帶來 1,000 萬美元的收益。

With the progress we made in 2025 and visibility of savings in 2026, we're confident we can exceed the $250 million savings commitment we've made during our 2024 Investor Day.

憑藉我們在 2025 年取得的進展以及 2026 年節省的可見性，我們有信心能夠超過我們在 2024 年投資者日上做出的 2.5 億美元的節省承諾。

Now I'll turn the call over to Todd for a look at our financial highlights.

現在我將把電話交給托德，讓他來介紹我們的財務亮點。

Thanks, Ken. Let's review our cash flow, liquidity, and financial foundation. Despite the challenges we encountered that impacted our adjusted EBITDA during the fourth quarter and throughout 2025, I'm pleased to report that we successfully achieved our 2025 cash flow and working capital objectives. In the fourth quarter, we generated approximately $321 million in operating cash flow, which enabled us to keep our year-end net debt at a level comparable to where it stood at the end of 2024. Throughout 2025, our team's proactive working capital reductions contributed $248 million in cash, excluding the timing of tax payments.

謝謝你，肯。讓我們來回顧一下我們的現金流、流動性和財務基礎。儘管我們在第四季度和整個 2025 年都遇到了影響調整後 EBITDA 的挑戰，但我很高興地報告，我們成功實現了 2025 年的現金流和營運資本目標。在第四季度，我們產生了約 3.21 億美元的營運現金流，這使我們能夠將年末淨債務保持在與 2024 年底相當的水平。2025 年全年，我們的團隊積極主動地減少了營運資金，貢獻了 2.48 億美元的現金，還不包括稅金支付的時間。

As we closed out the year, our available liquidity stood at $1 billion. Preserving and enhancing liquidity continues to be a top priority for us, particularly as we navigate this extended period of lower demand in our businesses. We continually review all sources and uses of cash with the goal of cost effectively maintaining adequate liquidity to support our business.

截至年底，我們的可用流動資金為 10 億美元。保持和增強流動性仍然是我們的首要任務，尤其是在我們業務需求長期低迷的情況下。我們不斷審查所有現金來源和用途，目標是以經濟有效的方式維持充足的流動性，以支持我們的業務。

Our debt profile remains managed. Early last year, our team executed a well-timed bond issuance and debt refinancing, which provided a leverage-neutral extension to 2033 of our nearest bond maturities, as well as an extension of our senior bank credit agreement from 2027 to 2030. Importantly, we have no bonds maturing until mid-year 2029. Our debt structure consists of manageable tranches with staggered maturities in the years ahead. We remain firmly committed to managing our balance sheet in a way that maximizes our financial flexibility in the future.

我們的債務狀況依然可控。去年年初，我們的團隊適時地發行了債券並進行了債務再融資，這使得我們最近的債券到期日得以在槓桿率不變的情況下延長至 2033 年，同時還將我們的高級銀行信貸協議從 2027 年延長至 2030 年。重要的是，我們沒有任何債券將在 2029 年年中之前到期。我們的債務結構由多個可控的債務批次組成，未來幾年債務到期日錯誤。我們將繼續堅定地致力於以最大限度提高未來財務靈活性的方式來管理我們的資產負債表。

Now let me take a moment to discuss our outlook for expected sources and uses of cash in 2026:

現在請容許我花一點時間討論我們對2026年預期現金來源和用途的展望：

First, regarding cash taxes, we anticipate receiving refunds from prior years related to the clean hydrogen production tax credits under Section 45V as a part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Factoring in these refunds, we expect 2026 to essentially be a cash-free tax year, plus or minus $20 million.

首先，關於現金稅，我們預計將收到根據 2022 年通貨膨脹削減法案第 45V 條規定，與清潔氫生產稅收抵免相關的往年退款。考慮到這些退稅，我們預計 2026 年基本上將是一個無現金納稅年度，上下浮動 2000 萬美元。

We are proactively managing our capital spending, targeting approximately $200 million with a focus on funding sustaining capital expenditures that ensure safe and reliable operation of our assets.

我們正在積極管理資本支出，目標是約 2 億美元，重點是為維持性資本支出提供資金，以確保我們的資產安全可靠地運作。

We expect to continue our nearly century-long history of uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments.

我們將繼續保持近一個世紀以來不間斷的季度分紅傳統。

As we further strengthen our financial resilience, any remaining excess cash flow after the preceding capital allocation priorities, will be used to reduce our outstanding debt.

隨著我們財務韌性的進一步增強，在滿足上述資本配置優先事項後，任何剩餘的超額現金流將用於減少我們的未償債務。

As a reminder, due to our normal seasonality of working capital, we expect net debt to increase during the first part of 2026. We remain focused on minimizing our typical seasonal inventory build.

再次提醒，由於營運資金的正常季節性波動，我們預計淨債務將在 2026 年上半年增加。我們將繼續致力於最大限度地減少典型的季節性庫存積壓。

Our teams remain dedicated to generating cash, maintaining strict cost discipline, and supporting our Beyond250 cost savings. We are committed to maintaining a prudent capital structure with a strong balance sheet and robust cash flows.

我們的團隊將繼續致力於創造現金流、維持嚴格的成本控制，並支持我們 Beyond250 的成本節約計畫。我們致力於維持審慎的資本結構，擁有穩健的資產負債表和強勁的現金流。

Ken, I'll hand the call back to you.

肯，我把電話轉回給你。

Thanks, Todd. Let's finish up with slide 9 and our outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect to deliver first quarter earnings lower than fourth quarter 2025. The main drivers behind that are continued seasonally weaker demand and higher costs in our CAPV business, as we previously discussed. We're seeing positive momentum with caustic pricing and expect to see more benefit from that as we move through the year.

謝謝你，托德。讓我們以第 9 張幻燈片和我們對第四季的展望作為結尾。我們預計第一季獲利將低於2025年第四季。造成這種情況的主要原因是季節性需求持續疲軟以及 CAPV 業務成本上升，正如我們之前討論的那樣。我們看到腐蝕性物質價格呈現積極勢頭，預計隨著時間的推移，我們將從中獲得更多益處。

Epoxy results will be sequentially higher, driven by higher volumes and lower costs in Europe from the new Stade contract taking effect, partially offset by a less favorable product mix.

環氧樹脂的業績將逐週成長，這主要得益於歐洲新 Stade 合約生效後銷量增加和成本降低，但部分被不太有利的產品組合所抵消。

Winchester results are expected to modestly improve from the fourth quarter, with higher commercial ammunition volume and pricing to offset rising copper and brass costs, as well as lower operating costs from our new operating model.

預計溫徹斯特的業績將從第四季度開始略有改善，商業彈藥銷售和價格的上漲將抵消銅和黃銅成本的上漲，同時我們新的營運模式也將降低營運成本。

While we're not satisfied with our results, everyone at Olin is focused on executing our value-first commercial approach, delivering our Beyond250 cost reductions and controlling what we can control to drive better business outcomes going forward.

雖然我們對結果並不滿意，但 Olin 的每個人都專注於執行我們以價值為先的商業策略，實現 Beyond250 的成本削減目標，並控制我們能夠控制的因素，以推動未來取得更好的業務成果。

Our team is committed to maintaining leading positions across our businesses, and I'm confident that we are well positioned for the future.

我們的團隊致力於在各個業務領域保持領先地位，我相信我們已經為未來做好了充分準備。

Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc.

（操作員說明）Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc。

You described a sharp decline in chlorine pipeline demand in Q4 as one of the biggest headwinds and I'm curious if it remains a large headwind in the first quarter? And if so, when do you expect that chlorine demand to recover? Obviously, consultants are describing a more competitive merchant chlorine market. Is this part of the story here? Or is this something idiosyncratic to your customers and you still have those customers and how you're seeing market share or not?

您曾將第四季度氯氣管道需求的急劇下降描述為最大的不利因素之一，我想知道這是否仍然是第一季的一大不利因素？如果情況屬實，您預期氯氣需求何時會恢復？顯然，諮詢顧問們描述的是一個競爭更加激烈的商業氯氣市場。這是故事的一部分嗎？或者這只是您客戶的特殊情況，您仍然擁有這些客戶，並且您如何看待市場份額？

Thank you for your question. So yes, listen, we saw the decline that we were referring to for the chlorine pipeline demand. That really happened in December, late in December. As you can imagine, it's pretty easy to reduce that offtake when you're on a pipeline. So we saw that happen -- we think it was primarily related to destocking. We were already seeing the seasonally lower demand. It just right at the end of the year, it went down even further.

謝謝你的提問。是的，聽著，我們看到了我們之前提到的氯氣管道需求下降的情況。那件事確實發生在12月，確切地說是12月下旬。你可以想像，當你身處一條輸油管時，減少石油消耗量是很容易的。所以我們看到這種情況發生了——我們認為這主要與去庫存有關。我們已經看到了季節性需求下降的跡象。就在年底的時候，它進一步下跌了。

Now that was a contributor to the lower earnings, but also the costs were a larger contributor to the earnings decline that we had talked about for the quarter. We're going to still see seasonally low demand in the first quarter of 2026. I don't expect to see what we saw at the end of December happen again in the first quarter, but we're not going to see a large bounce back in demand until we get into the warmer weather months and you start to see a recovery and water treatment demand and that sort of thing. That won't happen before second quarter.

這確實導致了收益下降，但正如我們之前討論過的，成本也是導致本季收益下降的更大原因。預計2026年第一季需求仍將處於季節性低迷狀態。我不認為12月底的情況會在第一季再次發生，但只有等到天氣變暖，需求開始復甦，水處理需求等出現回升時，我們才會看到需求的大幅反彈。那件事在第二季之前不會發生。

So -- we're still going to be very aggressive on maintaining our costs and making sure that we're being disciplined around our operating rates because that's what we can control, and -- the other thing that I want to mention is just related to caustic. There's no issue with demand on caustic. What we see happening on caustic is we don't have the volume to sell. The market is tighter than what people think, and we actually are going to see a little bit lower volumes in the first quarter on caustic. That's an availability issue, it's not a demand issue.

所以——我們仍然會非常積極地控製成本，並確保我們的營運率受到嚴格控制，因為這是我們能夠控制的，而且——我想提的另一件事與腐蝕性物質有關。腐蝕性物質的需求沒有問題。我們看到，在腐蝕性物質方面，我們沒有足夠的銷售量。市場供應比人們想像的要緊張，我們實際上會看到第一季燒鹼的銷售量略有下降。這是供應問題，不是需求問題。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Ken, one of your competitors has announced some capacity closures in North America. Can you discuss how you think the impact of those closures will be felt and how beneficial it could be to Olin in 2026?

肯，你的一個競爭對手宣布將在北美關閉部分產能。您能否談談您認為這些工廠關閉會產生哪些影響，以及這對奧林學院在 2026 年可能帶來的益處？

Good morning, Dave. Thanks for joining us. So listen, like I had said in the prepared comments, we have been seeing rationalization of capacity occurring over the last 12 to 18 months in pretty much all regions of the world. So it's not surprising when you're at the trough that you're seeing less cost competitive assets being shut down, and our view has been that operating rates will improve supply/demand balances will improve quicker than what you may be seeing in a lot of the publications because of that.

早上好，戴夫。謝謝您的參與。所以，就像我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，我們看到世界幾乎所有地區都出現了產能合理化的情況。因此，在經濟低谷時期，成本競爭力較弱的資產被關閉也就不足為奇了。我們的觀點是，由於這個原因，營運率將會提高，供需平衡將會比你在許多出版物中看到的情況更快地改善。

That's what happens in every trough, and this is just another example of that. So again, while we're in a situation of this longer trough has been exasperated by the additional capacity that's been added in Asia, you are starting to see those rationalizations occur, demand has not come back, and when demand does recover, and it will one day, I know sitting here today it may feel like it won't, but we're ready when it does.

低谷時期總是如此，這只是另一個例子。所以，雖然我們目前的情況是，由於亞洲新增產能加劇了這種長期低迷的狀態，但你開始看到這些合理化措施正在發生，需求還沒有恢復，而當需求恢復的時候——我知道它終有一天會恢復——我知道今天坐在這裡你可能感覺不到，但我們已經做好了準備。

We're doing the right things to prepare our assets. We made a step change in our performance in 2025 in terms of safety, and that goes hand-in-hand with reliability. Those are very big focuses of our organization, and so what we've got to do is be really good at having the most cost-competitive assets, the most reliable and the safest assets to be able to supply the markets that we serve.

我們正在採取正確的措施來準備我們的資產。2025 年，我們在安全性方面實現了效能的飛躍式提升，而這與可靠性密不可分。這些是我們組織非常重視的方面，因此我們必須努力擁有最具成本競爭力、最可靠、最安全的資產，以便能夠為我們服務的市場提供產品。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research。

Ken, can you comment on how military demand trended at Winchester in 2025, how much of that might have been up versus the pressure that you discussed on the commercial side? And looking ahead, I think you made a comment that maybe commercial demand is starting to trend positively on a year-over-year basis. So what is your outlook in that regard for 2026, please?

Ken，能否談談溫徹斯特公司在 2025 年的軍事需求趨勢？與你之前討論的商業方面壓力相比，軍用需求可能增加了多少？展望未來，我認為您曾說過，商業需求或許開始呈現同比上升的正面趨勢。那麼，您對2026年這方面有何展望？

Good morning, Kevin. Yes. So listen, what we saw in 2025 was significant growth in revenue related to military, both domestic and international. Now a lot of that gets skewed by the project revenue that you see related to the Next Generation Squad Weapon facility at Lake City. That project is going very well. I do expect -- we're even sitting here today, we're a little bit ahead of schedule, and so we feel really good about that project being on track to continue to realize growth related to that even in 2026.

早安，凱文。是的。所以聽著，我們在 2025 年看到的是與軍事相關的收入大幅成長，包括國內和國際收入。現在，許多數據都會受到與萊克城下一代小隊武器設施相關的項目收入的影響。那個專案進展非常順利。我預計——即使我們今天坐在這裡，我們的進度也比計劃略微超前，所以我們對該項目能夠按計劃進行感到非常滿意，即使到 2026 年，我們也能繼續實現相關的增長。

If you just think about the ammunition sales, yes, we did see growth even in the ammunition sales. The highest growth would have been in the international military space. that's growing off of a small base. So as a percentage of our total military sales, it is a smaller percent of military than the domestic military, but we expect to see that continue to grow in 2026. All of that gets diluted by that project revenue though that you see coming through related to the Lake City project.

如果只考慮彈藥銷售，是的，我們確實看到彈藥銷售也出現了增長。成長最快的領域本應是國際軍事領域，但該領域的成長基數較小。因此，就我們軍事銷售總額而言，它佔軍事支出的比例小於國內軍事支出的比例，但我們預計到 2026 年這一比例將繼續增長。不過，所有這些都會被與萊克城計畫相關的專案收入稀釋掉。

We are seeing the, I guess, the fruits of some of the actions that we have taken in the second half of last year by being more disciplined and what we're producing and shifting our model to more of a make to order. If we don't see the orders, we're not making the rounds.

我想，我們正在看到去年下半年我們採取的一些行動的成果，這些行動包括更加自律，以及我們生產的產品和將我們的模式轉向更多按需生產。如果看不到訂單，我們就不會進行巡視。

We've got to have visibility to that demand and so that has helped us pull our inventories down. We've seen in the value chains at the retailers, their inventories have come down,and now we've got to start the process to be able to rebuild our margins. We've got to start passing through a lot of these cost increases that we saw in 2025 that are continuing into 2026. Brass and copper are real headwinds for us, and so that has got to get absorbed in the market, and so we're being -- again, we're being very disciplined about implementation of these price increases and where we're not seeing that, then we're not going to be making the rounds. So we're going to continue with that.

我們必須了解市場需求，這有助於我們降低庫存。我們已經看到零售商的價值鏈中的庫存下降了，現在我們必須開始重建利潤率的過程。我們必須開始逐步消化2025年出現的許多成本成長，這些成長將持續到2026年。黃銅和銅對我們來說是真正的阻力，所以這些阻力必須在市場上被消化掉，因此我們正在——再次強調，我們正在非常嚴格地執行這些價格上漲，如果我們看不到這種情況，我們就不會進行提價。所以我們會繼續這樣做。

The green shoot that I'll comment on, though, is that we are seeing -- since the end of December, and it has been continuing, we are seeing weekly improvements in out-the-door sales at retailers, and so that is a very positive sign. I think that you are starting to see things get more balanced in that market, and Winchester being the leading brand, we're going to be very disciplined because we're going to leverage that brand value. We're the leading brand in the industry, and we've got to make sure that we get the margins that reflect that.

不過，我想提一下一個積極的跡象，那就是自 12 月底以來，零售商的出店銷售額每週都在改善，而且這種改善勢頭一直在持續，這是一個非常積極的信號。我認為你開始看到這個市場變得更加平衡，而溫徹斯特作為領先品牌，我們將非常自律，因為我們將利用這個品牌價值。我們是行業領先品牌，我們必須確保獲得與此相符的利潤。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

Just in terms -- last year, you started the PVC tolling arrangement. Now you have the Braskem EDC, any updated thinking on additional downstream participation in chlorovinyls, whether it be expanded tolling arrangements or perhaps investing in your own PVC assets?

就條款而言－去年，你們開始實施PVC收費安排。現在你們有了 Braskem EDC，對於進一步參與氯乙烯下游業務，無論是擴大加工安排還是投資自己的 PVC 資產，你們有什麼新的考慮嗎？

Good morning, Patrick. Listen, vinyls obviously, is a very important market for us. As you know, we've talked a lot about that. We continue to participate in the PVC market at a low level of volume, but it is giving us the ability to see and learn a lot of things around the customers, around the product portfolio, and really educate ourselves on that decision. We haven't taken anything off of the table in terms of our options that we are considering and that we're looking at.

早上好，派崔克。聽著，黑膠唱片顯然是我們非常重要的市場。如你所知，我們已經多次討論過這個問題。我們繼續以較低的銷售量參與 PVC 市場，但這讓我們能夠看到和了解很多關於客戶、產品組合的事情，並真正為該決定進行學習。在我們考慮和研究的所有選項中，我們還沒有排除任何可能性。

We continue to make very good progress on looking at potential expansion into PVC, which would include joint ventures, some sort of a joint investment or partnership. We're looking at technology providers and potential locations to be able to execute that. That all is underway and that all is in flight, but we're not taking any option off the table, including continuing the relationship that we have today with our fence-line customer at Freeport, Texas. So all of that is still in play.

我們在探索進入 PVC 領域的潛在擴張方面繼續取得非常好的進展，其中包括合資企業、某種形式的聯合投資或合作關係。我們正在尋找技術供應商和潛在的實施地點。這一切都在進行中，都在籌備中，但我們不會排除任何可能性，包括繼續維持我們目前與德克薩斯州弗里波特圍欄客戶的關係。所以這一切仍然有可能發生。

Long term, we are very optimistic around what we see in the PVC market. Yes, today, there's been too much capacity added. The demand has not come back, particularly in China, but that is going to get corrected over time, and so we're talking about a 2030, 2031 sort of timing for doing anything here. That's an eternity right now, okay?

從長遠來看，我們對PVC市場的前景非常樂觀。是的，今天新增產能太多了。需求還沒有恢復，尤其是在中國，但隨著時間的推移，這種情況會得到糾正，所以我們說的是，在 2030 年、2031 年左右，在這裡做任何事情的時間點。現在感覺過了好久好久啊！

That -- a lot of things are going to change and look different by the time we get there. So we're still looking at those things. We haven't made any final decisions. We've got time to be able to do that. As we make progress, we will keep you all informed, but today, there's not anything more definitive than we could say about that.

到那時，很多事情都會發生變化，看起來也會不一樣了。所以我們仍在關注這些問題。我們尚未做出最終決定。我們有時間做到這一點。隨著專案的進展，我們會及時向大家通報，但今天，我們對此還不能給出更確切的答案。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global Advisors。

Just wanted to dig a bit deeper into the Q1 guidance you guys have given. Maybe you guys could sort of talk it through in terms of a sequential bridge. What I'm just trying to understand is that back in the day, you guys would talk about $1 per million Btu swing in nat gas prices being around $45 million to $55 million worth of an annualized EBITDA swing, and this is obviously before you guys shut down some capacity and the like. So I would love to hear where that figure sits, and if Q1 had relatively normal nat gas prices, what your guidance would have looked like, and what your guidance would have looked like in the absence of maybe some of the weather-related capacity shutdowns you guys have done and if I could also add-on what that guidance would have looked like in a relatively normal sort of copper pricing environment?

我想更深入地了解你們給出的第一季業績指引。或許你們可以試著用順序橋的方式來討論。我只是想弄清楚的是，以前你們會說天然氣價格每百萬英熱單位波動 1 美元，就會造成年化 EBITDA 波動約 4500 萬至 5500 萬美元，而且這顯然是在你們關閉一些產能等等之前的情況。所以我很想知道這個數字是多少，如果第一季天然氣價格相對正常，你們的業績指引會是什麼樣的？如果沒有你們因為天氣原因而停產，你們的業績指引又會是什麼樣的呢？另外，如果銅價環境相對正常，你們的業績指引又會是什麼樣的呢？

Good morning, Hassan. Thank you for joining us. Listen, I know that some of that is what we've done in the past, but I will just tell you that I think when you start giving out those kinds of metrics, there tends to be too much, people lean on those too much and they start trying to reconcile things with other data that they don't have. It ended up creating more questions and confusion than it's worth.

早上好，哈桑。感謝您的參與。聽著，我知道我們過去也做過一些類似的事情，但我只想說，我認為當你開始公佈這類指標時，往往會出現過多的情況，人們會過度依賴這些指標，並開始試圖用他們沒有的其他數據來調和這些指標。結果，它反而引發了更多的問題和混亂，得不償失。

So let me give you a little bit of a bridge on a year over year basis because that's probably a cleaner way to think about this than sequentially, just because what we had in Q4 is not necessarily the same thing that we see in Q1, but if you think about it year over year, one of the biggest headwinds that we've got in our chlor alkali business is a significant increase in turnaround spend year over year. That's $40-ish million year over year. First quarter of '24 -- '25 versus first quarter of '26.

那麼，讓我從同比的角度來簡單梳理一下，因為這可能比按季度來思考這個問題更清晰，因為我們在第四季度遇到的情況不一定與第一季度的情況相同，但如果你從同比的角度來看，我們在氯鹼業務中面臨的最大不利因素之一是檢修支出同比大幅增加。那相當於比前一年增加了約4000萬美元。2024-2025 年第一季與 2026 年第一季比較。

The other thing is we are seeing significantly higher costs for power and natural gas. -- you can go look at that, and you can see what the numbers are, but both are going to be higher this year. Including now the impact of this Winter Storm Fern, we did proactively shut down some assets, but at the same time, we were still running some assets. So the power that we were consuming was at a higher price, but there are also costs associated with not running assets during that time, when we were shutting those assets down. Now just to give you an idea, we're still completing the restart of those assets.

另一方面，我們看到電力和天然氣的成本顯著上漲。 ——你可以去查一下，看看具體數字，但今年這兩項價格都會更高。考慮到冬季風暴「蕨類」的影響，我們主動關閉了一些資產，但與此同時，我們仍在運行一些資產。因此，我們消耗的電力價格更高，但當我們關閉這些資產時，也會產生與不運行這些資產相關的成本。為了讓你們有個概念，我們仍在完成這些資產的重啟工作。

So not everything is back online, but we should be, by the weekend is my expectation. The other thing related to that Winter Storm Fern is our Oxford, Mississippi facility with Winchester it's still down. You've probably seen some of the news coverage around Mississippi, they were sort of the direct hit of that ice storm. Employees are still not able to get to work, in some cases. We're not seeing many people being able to get in to that facility. So that's going to continue probably into next week, realistically.

所以目前還沒有所有服務都恢復正常，但我預計到週末應該就能恢復了。與冬季風暴「蕨類」相關的另一件事是，我們位於密西西比州牛津市的溫徹斯特工廠仍然關閉。你可能已經看過一些關於密西西比州的新聞報道，他們可以說是那場冰暴的直接受害者。在某些情況下，員工仍然無法上班。我們看到很少人能夠進入那個設施。所以，這種情況很可能會持續到下週。

So those headwinds, obviously, we did not have year over year. Epoxy is going to be an improvement. Winchester is down, net-net, those are probably about a wash, if you think about the first quarter of '25 versus '26. So that's how I would kind of steer you on that without trying to give you numbers that you're going to screw yourself in the ground around because there are just going to be other variables that you're not going to be able to figure out. So hopefully, that helps.

所以很顯然，我們今年沒有遇到這些不利因素。環氧樹脂將會是一種改良。溫徹斯特整體下滑，但總的來說，如果把 2025 年第一季和 2026 年第一季比較一下，結果可能差不多。所以，我會這樣引導你，而不會給你一些會讓你陷入困境的數字，因為總是會有你無法弄清楚的其他變數。希望這能有所幫助。

Frank Mitch, Fermium Research.

Frank Mitch，Fermium Research。

I may have missed this in the past, but I wanted to ask about this $70 million stranded costs for the PO-related closure. Dow announced this back in May of 2023, and so I -- obviously, you've known about it for a long time and could plan for it, et cetera, that $70 million sounds like a very large number. Can you help explain that to us, to me in particular?

我之前可能錯過了這件事，但我想問一下與郵局關閉相關的 7000 萬美元擱淺成本。陶氏化學早在 2023 年 5 月就宣布了這一消息，所以——顯然，你們早就知道這件事，也可以為此做計劃等等，7000 萬美元聽起來是一個非常大的數字。您能幫我們解釋一下嗎？特別是幫我解釋一下？

Listen, yes, we have known about this for a long time, and we've been planning it and we talked about this at our Investor Day, we knew that this was coming, but you don't take the costs out until you shut the assets, and so those assets are being closed and wound down as we speak.

聽著，是的，我們早就知道這件事，我們也一直在計劃這件事，我們在投資者日上也討論過這件事，我們知道這件事遲早會發生，但是只有在關閉資產後才能扣除成本，所以這些資產正在關閉和清算中。

So as we go through the year, we're going to have to find ways to be able to offset that, and that's -- that was the basis for us creating Beyond250 is that we've got to find ways to be able to take those costs out. The way that we were talking about this, I think previously as well is that asset and the sales from that asset didn't generate any margin for us. It was sort of a net 0 effect for us in terms of the P&L, but that doesn't mean that there would not be stranded costs with that.

所以，在接下來的這一年裡，我們必須找到方法來抵消這些成本，而這正是我們創建 Beyond250 的基礎，那就是我們必須找到方法來消除這些成本。我認為我們之前也是這樣討論的，那就是這項資產以及這項資產的銷售額並沒有為我們帶來任何利潤。從損益表上看，這對我們來說幾乎沒有任何影響，但這並不意味著不會產生擱淺成本。

We were aware of that. We've got to get after that. That is a very clear focus for us to be able to do that as we wind those assets down, but that is going to be something that happens over time. It doesn't happen like flipping a switch.

我們對此心知肚明。我們必須著手解決這個問題。這是我們逐步淘汰這些資產時的一個非常明確的重點，但這需要時間慢慢來。這並非像撥動開關那麼簡單。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I just wanted to ask, if you look at fourth quarter and first quarter in chlor-alkali and you just look at the things which are related with extended downtime, third-party outages, and your own inventory actions, what was the impact in fourth quarter, and what's your baked-in impact in first quarter?

我只是想問一下，如果您查看氯鹼行業的第四季度和第一季度，只查看與長時間停機、第三方停產以及您自己的庫存操作相關的事項，那麼第四季度的影響是什麼？第一季的既定影響又是什麼？

Josh. Well, like I said, there are a lot of things. There are a lot of variables that are going into that, including unplanned outages in our system, and so when we look at that, the biggest impact from that is simply the fact that we ended the year with very low -- and I mean like wet tank bottoms on caustic inventories, and so that is serving now to present a little bit of a volume issue for us in the first quarter related to being able to meet the demand that we see, and that's why we're so confident in the momentum that we see around caustic pricing, but you're really -- it's really difficult to give you any more details than that.

喬許。嗯，就像我說的，有很多事情。這其中有很多變數，包括我們系統中的計劃外停機，所以當我們審視這個問題時，最大的影響就是我們年底的燒鹼庫存非常低——我是指像濕罐底部那樣低的庫存，因此這導致我們在第一季度在滿足需求方面存在一些供應問題，這也是為什麼我們對燒鹼價格的上漲勢頭如此有信心的原因，但你真的很難提供更多細節細節。

I think there's a lot of misconception out there about the marketplace and what we see in terms of supply and demand, things are tighter than what people believe, and I think that's one of the things that we are going to continue to realize as we go through the first quarter and into the second quarter, we're going to start to see that movement in pricing that reflects the situation in the market.

我認為目前市場對供需狀況有許多誤解，實際情況比人們想像的要緊張得多。我認為隨著第一季進入第二季度，我們會越來越意識到這一點，價格走勢也會開始反映市場狀況。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

馬修‧德約，美國銀行。

I feel like the prior kind of commentary for 2026 epoxies, we were expecting something around $80 million in cost savings, of which over half was supposed to come from just the Dow contract lapse at Stade.

我覺得之前對 2026 年環氧樹脂的評論是，我們預計可以節省大約 8000 萬美元的成本，其中一半以上應該來自 Stade 的 Dow 合約到期。

Clearly, you're talking about modest profitability -- this wouldn't be the first case, productivity is lost through the cycle, but I'm just trying to clarify if that's what's happening here or if we should expect those savings to be more ratable in '27, I'll let you expand from there.

顯然，你指的是適度的盈利能力——這並非首例，生產力會隨著週期而下降，但我只是想弄清楚這裡是否也是如此，或者我們是否應該預期這些節省在 2027 年會更加可觀，我讓你繼續展開討論。

Listen, so what we had said back at Investor Day, that $80 million, remember that was our cost-out target for 2028. So that -- you're going to realize a very big chunk of that $40 million to $50 million is going to be realized in 2026. So you are going to see Epoxy last year, $50 million-ish EBITDA negative.

聽著，我們在投資者日上說過，8000萬美元，記住，那是我們2028年的成本削減目標。所以——你會意識到，這 4000 萬到 5000 萬美元中的很大一部分將在 2026 年實現。所以你會看到環氧樹脂公司去年的 EBITDA 約為負 5000 萬美元。

We're going to be positive this year. I mean I do expect that that's going to be the result in 2026. So you're going to see a meaningful improvement in our earnings. Most of that are things that we're doing to help ourselves in cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Just to be clear, we're not seeing any significant improvement in the Epoxy market.

今年我們將保持樂觀。我的意思是，我預計2026年就會出現這樣的結果。所以你們將會看到我們的獲利能力顯著提高。我們採取這些措施主要是為了降低成本和提高效率。需要說明的是，我們目前沒有看到環氧樹脂市場有任何顯著改善。

Demand is still subdued. Margins are still weak. That environment has not changed. So all of this improvement that you're seeing is a result of what we've done. And so it's not getting lost anywhere. You're going to see that positive impact coming through in 2026.

需求依然低迷。利潤率依然疲弱。環境並未改變。所以，你們現在看到的這些進步都是我們努力的成果。所以它不會丟失。2026年，你就會感受到這種正面的影響。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

Just curious when you think about improving EBITDA sequentially throughout the year, what do you think needs to happen? Obviously, demand would be great, but you have a lot of cost savings. Can you maybe just give us a feel of what could happen heading into 2Q, 3Q, that could really maybe improve the EBITDA level from where we're at now?

我很好奇，當您考慮全年逐週提高 EBITDA 時，您認為需要採取哪些措施？顯然，需求會很大，但你也能節省很多成本。您能否大致介紹一下，在第二季度和第三季度，哪些因素可能會真正改善我們目前的 EBITDA 水準？

Well, listen, like I have said, we are going to be really focused on everything that we can do to ensure that we're becoming a more efficient company, reducing our costs in the face of a very difficult market that we're in today.

聽著，就像我之前說的，我們將全力以赴，盡一切可能確保我們成為一家更有效率的公司，在當今非常艱難的市場環境下降低成本。

I am more bullish on what we expect to see around caustic pricing. The cost reductions, you're going to start to see that come through here in the first quarter, particularly around the Epoxy business. We've talked a lot about that, and then, frankly, we've got to execute on this turnaround in Freeport. It's starting here in the first quarter, at the end of the quarter, and it's going to go into the second quarter. So that headwind is going to stay there in Q2 related to the VCM turnaround.

我對腐蝕性物質價格的預期走勢更為樂觀。成本削減措施將在第一季開始顯現，尤其是在環氧樹脂業務方面。我們已經討論了很多，坦白說，我們現在必須執行弗里波特港的扭虧為盈計畫。它從第一季末開始，一直持續到第二季​​。因此，與 VCM 業務轉型相關的這種不利因素將在第二季持續存在。

So we have to execute that very well, and the team has done a great job preparing for that, planning for that. I've reviewed where they are in terms of being prepared, and we've got to make that a reality now. So execution, running the assets reliably and safely and executing this turnaround, those are the things that we can control, and that's what we're going to be really focused on to deliver those cost reductions, and then as we see demand recover in Q2 and pricing improve in Q2, that's going to give us some momentum, but we're not going to quantify that at this point.

所以我們必須把這件事執行得非常好，團隊在這方面做了很多準備和規劃工作。我已經評估了他們在準備方面的現狀，現在我們必須將評估結果變成現實。因此，執行力、可靠且安全地運行資產以及執行此次轉型，這些都是我們可以控制的事情，也是我們將真正關注的重點，以實現成本降低。然後，隨著第二季需求的復甦和價格的改善，這將為我們帶來一些動力，但我們目前不會對此進行量化。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

Could we circle back to this mention of higher energy costs. I think it was on slide 9. We normally think of Olin as fairly hedged on a quarter-over-quarter basis. So is this just a function of rolling to a new year? Or has anything changed on your overall hedging strategy?

我們能否再回到先前提到的能源成本上漲問題上來談談？我想應該是在第9張投影片。我們通常認為 Olin 的季度環比表現相當不錯。所以這只是迎接新年的必然結果嗎？或者說，您的整體對沖策略是否有任何變化？

Todd, do you want to take that one?

托德，你想接那個任務嗎？

Yeah. No, great. Thanks for the question. Yeah, you're right. We are -- we continue to be a hedger. One quarter out, we're very heavily hedged generally on a rolling four-quarter basis, and so without the spike in natural gas that you saw associated with the winter storm and cold weather here in January, we would have expected, based on our hedges that natural gas and our power costs would have been higher. Candidly, that will be exacerbated by the unhedged component here in January associated with that spike in gas price that we saw.

是的。不，太好了。謝謝你的提問。是的，你說得對。我們是－我們將繼續採取對沖策略。距離季度末還有一段時間，我們通常以滾動四季度為基礎進行大量對沖，因此，如果沒有一月份冬季風暴和寒冷天氣帶來的天然氣價格飆升，根據我們的對沖策略，我們預計天然氣和電力成本會更高。坦白說，1 月汽油價格飆升帶來的未對沖部分將會加劇這種情況。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Can you quantify either the volume or the EBITDA benefits of the Braskem EDC arrangements for 2026? And for Todd, for 2026 for the full year, do you have any cash flow or free cash flow or working capital objectives?

你能量化 Braskem EDC 安排在 2026 年帶來的銷售或 EBITDA 收益嗎？托德，對於2026年全年，你有什麼現金流、自由現金流或營運資本目標嗎？

Jeff, thanks for the question. So listen, we won't get specific on the Braskem arrangement. Again, that is one where it's a great partnership that we've created there. Like I said, we brought together us, Olin as the low-cost producer of EDC, together with the PVC leader in Brazil, and this is going to create value for both of us.

傑夫，謝謝你的提問。所以聽著，我們不會具體討論 Braskem 的安排。再一次，我們在那裡建立了非常好的合作關係。正如我所說，我們把 Olin（低成本的 EDC 生產商）和巴西的 PVC 領導者聚集在一起，這將為我們雙方創造價值。

So it's going to allow us to get a higher value for our EDC versus selling it on the spot market and the export spot market, and it's going to allow them to have a better cost position to be able to compete with their PVC in Brazil. The other component of this, though, is around caustic. So we do have a larger footprint now on infrastructure, with caustic infrastructure in Brazil. So we've also inherited a lot of that infrastructure in terms of tanks and ports and access to be able to move caustic into the region,and so that's going to help us probably even more so than the EDC side of this. EDC prices have come down so much through the year. If you just think about -- if you go back to the first quarter of last year and that bridge that we were building earlier, vinyls pricing has come down significantly from the first quarter of 2025, and so as prices recover, that's going to be more of a tailwind, but we're not projecting any significant improvement in vinyls pricing in the near term.

這樣一來，我們的 EDC 就能獲得比在現貨市場和出口現貨市場銷售更高的價值，而且也能讓他們擁有更好的成本優勢，從而在巴西與 PVC 展開競爭。但另一個組成部分與腐蝕性有關。所以我們現在在基礎設施方面擁有更大的影響力，尤其是在巴西的腐蝕性基礎設施方面。因此，我們在儲槽、港口以及將腐蝕性物質運入該地區的通道等方面也繼承了許多基礎設施，所以這可能比 EDC 方面對我們的幫助更大。今年以來，EDC（日常攜帶裝備）的價格已經大幅下降。如果你回想一下——如果你回顧去年第一季以及我們之前搭建的橋樑，黑膠唱片的價格已經比 2025 年第一季度大幅下降，因此隨著價格回升，這將成為一個更大的順風，但我們預計短期內黑膠唱片的價格不會有任何顯著改善。

So I would say, let's not get over our skis on that at this point. It's probably more of a caustic story, and we'll see a meaningful increase in in our caustic sales into Latin America in 2026. We're not going to quantify what that looks like, but that's going to be a growth market for us.

所以我覺得，我們現在還不要在這件事上反應過度。這可能更像是一個腐蝕性的故事，我們將在 2026 年看到我們在拉丁美洲的腐蝕性產品銷售出現顯著增長。我們不會量化它的具體情況，但對我們來說，這將是一個成長的市場。

Yes, and Jeff, talking about cash flow and working capital. As we look to 2026 compared to 2025, we will see a real tailwind associated with cash taxes. I'd say roughly in 2025, we spent $167 million in cash taxes, and so we would expect 2026, I said to be a relatively cash-free tax year, plus or minus $20 million. So that's a nice tailwind as we move into 2026. However, we did reduce working capital, excluding taxes by $248 million.

是的，還有傑夫，他談到了現金流和營運資金。展望 2026 年與 2025 年相比，我們將看到現金稅收帶來的真正利多。我估計 2025 年我們大約繳納了 1.67 億美元的現金稅，因此我們預計 2026 年將是一個相對無現金納稅的年份，上下浮動 2000 萬美元。所以，這對我們邁入2026年來說是一個不錯的順風。但是，我們確實減少了營運資金（不包括稅金），減少了 2.48 億美元。

We would expect that you will see some normal seasonal build in working capital in the first half of 2026, but we will be very disciplined, as you've heard, around inventory and our seasonal inventory build, and we will be very focused on continuing to maintain that working capital discipline that you saw in 2025, and so that is going to be something that we think we can maintain the levels of inventory that we have achieved in 2025 and 2026, if not improve upon that.

我們預計 2026 年上半年營運資金會出現一些正常的季節性增長，但正如您所聽到的，我們將對庫存和季節性庫存增長保持非常嚴格的控制，並將非常專注於繼續保持您在 2025 年看到的營運資金控制水平，因此我們認為我們可以保持 2025 年和 2026 年的庫存水平，甚至可能在此基礎上提高。

Peter Osterland, Truist Securities.

彼得‧奧斯特蘭（Peter Osterland），Truist 證券公司。

I just wanted to follow up on the Winchester discussion. Just given the plans you've laid out on pricing and cost actions and acquisition synergies. How much visibility do you have for margin improvement in the business during 2026? I mean I guess if you assume commercial demand and raw material prices don't meaningfully improve. Can you drive segment margins higher for full year '26 just through self-help?

我只是想跟進一下關於溫徹斯特的討論。鑑於您已製定的定價和成本控制措施以及收購協同效應計劃。您認為公司在 2026 年的利潤率提升前景如何？我的意思是，如果你假設商業需求和原物料價格沒有實質改善的話。您能否僅透過自助手段提高 2026 年全年各業務板塊的利潤率？

Peter. Thank you for the questions. So there's a couple of ways I want to answer that question. One is we have taken cost out of Winchester. So if you go back to the fourth quarter, we did take out shifts. We have reduced staffing levels to be able to reflect that lower demand that we had talked about. Demand has gone back to kind of the pre-COVID levels.

彼得。謝謝大家的提問。所以，我想從兩個方面來回答這個問題。其一是我們已經降低了溫徹斯特的成本。所以如果你回到第四季度，我們確實減少了輪班。我們減少了員工人數，以應對我們之前討論過的較低的需求。需求已基本恢復到新冠疫情前的水準。

So there's a big decline in that in the earnings of Winchester that is related to volume. The margin side of it is certainly related to a big part of that are cost increases. Yeah, there were some concessions around pricing as retailers had high inventories, and there was promotional pricing that was done to move that inventory. So we've got to recover both of those things.

因此，溫徹斯特的收益出現了大幅下降，這與銷量有關。利潤率方面肯定與成本上漲有很大關係。是的，由於零售商庫存量高，價格方面做出了一些讓步，並且採取了促銷定價措施來清理庫存。所以我們必須找找這兩樣東西。

The price increases that we have put out there in the first quarter for Winchester really just get us to recover those increased costs that we've seen. So unfortunately, I don't right now see that there's going to be a lot of improvement in the margin for Winchester, this is really going to be more about getting the costs passed through to hold the margins where they're at, which is not at a satisfactory level. So we -- sorry.

我們在第一季對溫徹斯特產品進行的價格上漲，實際上只是為了彌補我們所看到的成本增加。所以很遺憾，目前我看不出溫徹斯特的利潤率會有多大改善，這實際上更多的是如何將成本轉嫁出去，以維持目前的利潤率水平，而目前的利潤率並不令人滿意。所以——抱歉。

Candidly, we need more pricing to offset if copper stays at, I don't know, $6.10 this morning, there needs to be more, right.

坦白說，我們需要更多的價格來抵消銅價上漲的影響，例如今天早上銅價維持在 6.10 美元左右，那就需要更多的價格來抵消，對吧。

There's got to be more coming, just to hold margins where they are. So even with that, kind of green shoot that we're seeing around some improvement in commercial demand, we have got to stay focused on getting prices up to get margins recovered. They're still significantly below where we expect them to be, and -- our commercial teams are extremely focused on doing that.

肯定還會有更多措施出台，才能維持目前的利潤率。所以即使我們看到商業需求出現了一些改善的跡象，我們仍然需要專注於提高價格，以恢復利潤率。它們的數值仍然遠低於我們的預期，而且──我們的商業團隊正全力以赴地朝著這個目標努力。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC。

I hope you guys are well. I guess understanding that visibility is somewhat limited. Just wanted to understand kind of the earnings trajectory from here. So obviously, Q4 and Q1 were impacted by some one-time impacts. You guys have rolled out the more aggressive cost management actions, but you're still seeing some significant headwinds there that you just discussed in Winchester and Epoxy is still kind of a negative EBITDA territory.

希望你們一切都好。我想，理解這一點在某種程度上是有限的。我只是想了解接下來的獲利走勢。顯然，第四季和第一季都受到了某些一次性因素的影響。你們已經推出了更積極的成本管理措施，但你們仍然看到一些重大的阻力，就像你們剛才在溫徹斯特討論的那樣，環氧樹脂的 EBITDA 仍然為負。

So if I look at Q1, it looks like that's going to be in the $60 million range or so, and then, obviously, you'll have seasonal uplift in Q2 and Q3, but then Q4 will also be back down. So I struggle to kind of get above maybe $450 or so on the year. Am I kind of being a little bit too punitive there? Or what kind of one-time costs would you call out to kind of maybe increase from that base? Any kind of comments would be helpful.

所以，如果我看一下第一季度，看起來大概會在 6000 萬美元左右，然後，很明顯，第二季度和第三季度會有季節性增長，但第四季度也會回落。所以我一年下來很難超過 450 美元左右。我這樣懲罰是不是有點太嚴厲了？或者，您認為需要增加哪些一次性成本才能在此基礎上提高？任何意見都將不勝感激。

Arun, Thank you for your question. So listen, I think there are obviously a lot of puts and takes. This is a very heavy year for us in terms of turnaround. This is probably the peak year that we've ever seen. We had a high year last year. We've had a higher year this year, and then we'll see some relief in 2027. So turnarounds are a real headwind, are a real headwind for us in 2026, but as we go through the year, yes, you will see the seasonal improvement in Q2, Q3, especially around water treatment as those markets come back. That is going to happen. We are going to see momentum around caustic pricing. We don't expect to see any improvement in vinyls.

Arun，謝謝你的提問。所以聽著，我認為這裡面顯然有很多進退兩難的情況。今年對我們來說是轉型非常艱難的一年。這可能是我們見過的巔峰之年。去年我們取得了不錯的成績。今年情況較嚴峻，預計 2027 年情況會有所緩和。因此，業務轉型在 2026 年對我們來說是一個真正的阻力，但隨著時間的推移，是的，您將在第二季和第三季看到季節性改善，尤其是在水處理領域，因為這些市場正在復蘇。這一定會發生。我們將看到腐蝕性物質價格出現上漲動能。我們預計黑膠唱片不會有任何改善。

I mean I've already said that. I think that's just -- that's one where we've got to stay focused on being disciplined, but I do want to go back to the cost comments and the question. We are not rolling out anything new or more aggressive on our cost reductions. What we are talking about in terms of our cost reductions, we were talking about at our Investor Day in 2024.

我的意思是，我已經說過這​​話了。我認為，在這方面，我們必須保持自律，但我確實想回到成本的評論和問題上。我們不會推出任何新的或更激進的成本削減措施。我們所說的降低成本的問題，我們在 2024 年的投資者日上已經討論過了。

We are delivering on what we had talked about back then, and what we see now is we actually have visibility. We believe by 2028, we can exceed that $250 million of savings that we had talked about. So this isn't something new.

我們正在兌現當時所談論的事情，現在我們看到的是，我們確實取得了進展。我們相信到 2028 年，我們可以實現之前所說的 2.5 億美元的節省目標。所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。

This is something that our organization is completely committed to. We have changed our performance metrics in terms of how we're rewarding our executives, our site leaders. So now our sites each have part of their part of their STIP, their short-term incentive is driven off of their specific performance around safety, reliability, cost performance and yields. We are driving that discipline through the organization, and that accountability, and that ownership, and what I'd love to see is the organization is responding to that and delivering that.

這是我們組織全力以赴的事業。我們改變了對高階主管和站點負責人的獎勵方式，並以此作為績效考核指標。所以現在我們每個站點都有其自身的短期激勵計劃 (STIP) 的一部分，其短期激勵取決於其在安全性、可靠性、成本效益和產量方面的具體表現。我們正在整個組織中推行這種紀律、責任感和主人翁意識，我希望看到的是組織能夠對此做出回應並實現這些目標。

That's not something that's new. That's something that we've been talking about for the last year, and what you're seeing is the fruits of that are going to be borne out here in 2026.

這並非什麼新鮮事。這是我們過去一年一直在討論的事情，而你們現在看到的，正是這些努力將在 2026 年結出碩果。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

My questions have been answered, so I'll pass it along.

我的問題已經得到解答，所以我會把答案轉達出去。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗銀行。

Thank you. So slide 16 shows that caustic soda prices declined sequentially in the December quarter. So I assume you ended the quarter lower you began, and I think slide 15 says the price increases don't really start until the second quarter. So the March quarter caustic price will be down sequentially. I just wanted to confirm that because you were talking earlier about rock bottom inventories and tightness in the market, but it kind of doesn't seem to be consistent.

謝謝。因此，第 16 張幻燈片顯示，12 月季度燒鹼價格較上季下降。所以我假設你本季末的價格低於季度初的價格，而且我認為第 15 張投影片上說價格上漲要到第二季才真正開始。因此，3月當季的燒鹼價格將會較上季下降。我只是想確認一下，因為你之前提到庫存極低，市場供應緊張，但這似乎並不一致。

So listen, yes, we've got -- some of that is mix in terms of what you're seeing. We are seeing caustic pricing moving higher in the quarter, and that's in our system, and that's all that I can really comment on.

所以聽著，是的，我們有一些——就你看到的內容而言，其中一些是混合的。我們看到本季腐蝕性物質的價格上漲，這是我們系統內的情況，我只能就此發表評論。

There is a lag that we see that you've got monthly pricing, you've got quarterly pricing and some pricing that's on a lag, and so you're going to start to see that really pick up in the second quarter compared to what you saw in the fourth quarter.

我們發現存在一定的滯後性，例如按月定價、按季度定價以及一些定價存在滯後性，因此與第四季度相比，您將在第二季度看到這種情況真正有所改善。

It was only down 3%?

只下跌了3%？

Sorry, John, what was that?

約翰，不好意思，你說什麼？

The ECU PCI encompasses both price and power cost, right? So that's already in that 3% decline in the ECU PCI. So -- the difference between the 3% decline in the ECU PCI and the 60% decline in EBITDA was all volume and the Dow stranded costs?

ECU PCI 的價格和功耗都包含在內，對嗎？所以，ECU PCI 已經下降了 3%。所以——ECU PCI 下降 3% 與 EBITDA 下降 60% 之間的差額全部是成交量和道瓊斯指數擱淺成本造成的？

No, that's more reflective of mix that you see in that PCI. So I mean that's -- frankly, that's noise more than anything.

不，這更能反映出你在 PCI 中看到的混合情況。所以我的意思是──坦白說，那與其說是什麼東西，不如說是噪音。

So the ECU PCI doesn't encompass mix effect. It's a constant mix.

所以ECU PCI不包含混合效應。這是一個持續不斷的混合物。

John, I think -- this is Todd. No, I think Ken said mix -- it is all chlorine derivatives, not just the ECU comment. It is all chlorine derivatives, including all the epoxy chlorine derivatives as well as all the chlor alkali chlorine derivatives and as well as caustic soda. So it is all encompassing, and so you can see changes in mix, and as you heard, as in our commentary, we did have some more favorable mix in our Epoxy business.

約翰，我想──這是托德。不，我想 Ken 說的是混合——它指的是所有氯衍生物，而不僅僅是 ECU 評論中提到的那些。它包含所有氯衍生物，包括所有環氧氯衍生物、所有氯鹼氯衍生物以及苛性鈉。所以它是包羅萬象的，因此你可以看到混合物的變化，正如你所聽到的，正如我們在評論中所說，我們在環氧樹脂業務中確實有一些更有利的混合物。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing statements.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將會議交還給肯·萊恩，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Bailey, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Olin, and we look forward to speaking to you at our first-quarter 2026 earnings call. Thank you very much.

謝謝貝利，也謝謝各位今天能來參加我們的節目。我們感謝您對奧林公司的關注，並期待在 2026 年第一季財報電話會議上與您交流。非常感謝。

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。