Olin Corp (OLN) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Olin Corporation's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Olin Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.

現在，我想將會議交給 Olin 投資者關係總監 Steve Keenan。請繼續，史蒂夫。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We truly appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's second-quarter results. Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides and the question-and-answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。我們非常感謝您今天加入我們，共同回顧奧林的第二季業績。請記住，今天的討論以及相關幻燈片和隨後的問答環節將包括有關未來表現的估計或預期的陳述。

Please note that these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's second-quarter earnings press release.

請注意，這些都是前瞻性陳述，Olin 的實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。我們最新的 10-K 表格中的「風險因素」部分以及昨天的第二季財報新聞稿中無限制地描述了可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的一些因素。

A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under Press Releases.

今天的會議記錄和幻燈片的副本將在我們網站的「過去事件」下的「投資者」部分提供。我們的收益新聞稿及相關財務數據及資訊可於新聞稿中查閱。

With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO; and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, then we'll look forward to taking your questions. In order to give everyone an opportunity, we will limit participants to one question with no follow-ups.

今天早上和我一起的還有 Olin 總裁兼執行長 Ken Lane 和 Olin 財務長 Todd Slater。我們將首先發表一些準備好的發言，然後期待回答您的問題。為了給每個人一個機會，我們將限制參與者只提出一個問題，並且不提供後續問題。

I'll now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane. Ken?

現在我會把電話轉給 Olin 總裁兼執行長 Ken Lane。肯？

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. I'll start with slide 3 and our second-quarter highlights.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，也感謝今天與我們一起的所有人。我將從幻燈片 3 和我們的第二季亮點開始。

Second-quarter 2025 provided another proof point for our value-first commercial approach, as we continue to preserve value across our integrated ECU products, despite this being the seventh quarter in a row of trough demand conditions.

2025 年第二季為我們的價值優先商業方法提供了另一個證明點，儘管這是連續第七個季度需求處於低谷，但我們仍繼續保持整合 ECU 產品的價值。

In the face of this lengthy downturn, North American chlorine index values remained stable and higher than any prior trough. Epoxy resins faced ongoing strong import competition, partially offset by our growing Formulated Solutions business.

面對這段長期低迷時期，北美氯指數值維持穩定，且高於以往任何低谷。環氧樹脂面臨著持續激烈的進口競爭，但我們不斷成長的配方解決方案業務部分抵消了競爭。

The second-quarter outlook we provided anticipated our Chemicals businesses will deliver flat sequential results, overcoming a $32 million sequential headwind from planned turnarounds. However, unplanned operating events limited our results to the lower end of our second-quarter outlook.

我們在第二季的展望中預計，我們的化學品業務將實現與上一季持平的業績，克服因計劃扭虧為盈而造成的 3,200 萬美元的上一季逆風。然而，計劃外的營運事件將我們的業績限制在第二季預期的低端。

Winchester continued to see strength in the defense business, while headwinds from customer destocking, lower commercial pricing, and higher raw material costs, negatively impacted our commercial business results in line with what we had expected.

溫徹斯特的國防業務持續保持強勁勢頭，而客戶去庫存、商業價格下跌和原材料成本上漲等不利因素對我們的商業業務業績產生了負面影響，這與我們的預期一致。

Despite the chemical operational headwinds, our teams executed well, generating operating cash flow of more than $212 million, easily funding Winchester's second-quarter acquisition of our new Manitowoc, Wisconsin, ammunition facility, paying down $39 million of debt and buying back $10 million of Olin shares.

儘管面臨化學運營方面的阻力，我們的團隊仍然表現良好，產生了超過 2.12 億美元的運營現金流，輕鬆為溫徹斯特第二季度收購位於威斯康星州馬尼托沃克的新彈藥工廠提供了資金，償還了 3900 萬美元的債務併回購了價值 1000 萬美元的奧林股票。

Now let's turn to slide 4 and review our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls results. Caustic soda remains the strong side of the ECU. Global demand for caustic soda into alumina remains robust, with continued expansion of Latin American pulp and paper capacity more than offsetting reductions to US capacity. Domestic caustic soda demand remained stable as seasonal water treatment, mining, and agricultural demand strengthens.

現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 4，回顧一下我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基的結果。燒鹼仍是歐洲貨幣基金組織的強勢品種。全球對燒鹼生產氧化鋁的需求依然強勁，拉丁美洲紙漿和造紙產能的持續擴張足以抵銷美國產能的減少。由於季節性水處理、採礦和農業需求增強，國內燒鹼需求保持穩定。

We expected second-quarter EDC values to present a small headwind, but the price decline was much steeper than expected. Olin's cost-advantaged North American ethylene and EDC positions provide some insulation during these trough conditions, allowing us to continue operating profitably on an integrated basis.

我們預期第二季的 EDC 價值將出現小幅逆風，但價格下跌幅度遠超預期。Olin 在北美乙烯和 EDC 市場中具有成本優勢，這在低谷時期提供了一定的保護，使我們能夠繼續以綜合方式獲利營運。

As I mentioned earlier, during the quarter, we experienced several unplanned operating events that caused earnings to be at the low end of our expectations. One of our core values is to operate our facilities safely and reliably. And we are taking actions to significantly improve in both areas, as you'll hear about shortly.

正如我之前提到的，在本季度，我們經歷了幾次計劃外的營運事件，導致收益處於預期的低端。我們的核心價值之一是安全可靠地運作我們的設施。我們正在採取行動，顯著改善這兩個領域，您很快就會聽到。

We continue to view tariff impacts as generally neutral to our Chlor Alkali business. This balance may shift if we see an increase in retaliatory tariffs especially across South America, a key destination for our caustic soda and EDC exports.

我們仍然認為關稅對我們的氯鹼業務的影響總體上是中性的。如果我們看到報復性關稅增加，尤其是在南美洲（我們的燒鹼和EDC出口的主要目的地），這種平衡可能會改變。

Our PVC tolling initiative continues to develop as we successfully broaden our product and customer portfolio. We're committed to finding the highest value, most capital-efficient long-term option for our PVC market participation, leveraging our fully integrated VCM asset.

隨著我們成功擴大產品和客戶組合，我們的 PVC 加工計畫也不斷發展。我們致力於利用我們完全整合的 VCM 資產，為我們的 PVC 市場參與尋找最高價值、資本效率最高的長期選擇。

Now let's turn to slide 5 for a brief look at our Epoxy results. Our Formulated Solutions business sequentially grew both in volume and margin. Lower resin material costs in the second quarter were partially offset by sequentially higher operating costs. Epoxy faces second-quarter adjusted EBITDA headwind of approximately $7 million for the Stade maintenance turnaround.

現在讓我們翻到投影片 5，簡單看一下環氧樹脂的結果。我們的配方解決方案業務的銷售和利潤均持續成長。第二季樹脂材料成本的下降被連續上升的營運成本部分抵銷。由於 Stade 的維護週轉，Epoxy 在第二季度面臨約 700 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 逆風。

Building and construction, automotive, and consumer electronics remain weak in both the US and Europe. In spite of that, Olin's second-quarter epoxy resin volume improved year over year, as customers shifted more of their requirements back to Olin, focusing on the reliability and security of supply that we offer as the last remaining fully integrated epoxy producer in North America and Europe.

美國和歐洲的建築業、汽車業和消費性電子產品仍然疲軟。儘管如此，Olin 第二季的環氧樹脂銷售量年增，因為客戶將更多的需求轉移回 Olin，專注於我們作為北美和歐洲最後一家完全一體化環氧樹脂生產商所提供的供應的可靠性和安全性。

As a reminder, an important next milestone in our Epoxy self-help strategy will be the initiation of the Stade, Germany, key supplier contract, delivering more than half of our $80 million 2028 of Epoxy structural cost reduction target starting on January 1, 2026.

提醒一下，我們環氧樹脂自助戰略的下一個重要里程碑將是啟動德國施塔德的關鍵供應商合同，從 2026 年 1 月 1 日起，實現我們 2028 年 8000 萬美元環氧樹脂結構成本削減目標的一半以上。

Slide 6 provides an update on our Winchester business. Winchester's defense business continues to grow based upon strong domestic military ammunition demand, international military ammunition shipments, and our Lake City government-funded Next Generation Squad Weapon project. However, our commercial ammunition business remains challenged.

幻燈片 6 提供了我們溫徹斯特業務的最新情況。溫徹斯特的國防業務持續成長，得益於強勁的國內軍用彈藥需求、國際軍用彈藥運輸以及我們萊克城政府資助的下一代班組武器項目。然而，我們的商業彈藥業務仍面臨挑戰。

Costs have increased, retail channel inventories remain high, and consumer demand is being impacted by weak discretionary spending. All of these factors contribute to a highly competitive environment, resulting in lower commercial pricing and margin weakness. None of these challenges are structural. But the confluence of the three create an unprecedented perfect storm of our commercial ammunition business.

成本增加，零售通路庫存仍然很高，消費者需求受到可自由支配支出疲軟的影響。所有這些因素都導致了高度競爭的環境，從而導致商業定價降低和利潤率疲軟。這些挑戰都不是結構性的。但三者的匯合為我們的商業彈藥業務帶來了一場前所未有的完美風暴。

Turning to our recent Manitowoc, Wisconsin, ammunition plant acquisition, we expect this acquisition to generate $5 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA during the second half of 2025; and after our first three months of ownership, have strengthened our confidence in delivering $40 million of EBITDA by year three.

談到我們最近對威斯康辛州馬尼托沃克彈藥廠的收購，我們預計此次收購將在 2025 年下半年產生 500 萬美元的增量調整後 EBITDA；並且在我們擁有該工廠的前三個月之後，我們更加有信心在第三年實現 4000 萬美元的 EBITDA。

Let's turn to slide 7 for a deeper look into our Beyond250 cost savings project. As I mentioned earlier, the foremost value for Olin is our commitment to safe and reliable operations, cornerstone of our strategy to create long-term value. Overall, we anticipate our efforts will result in 2025 year-end run rate cost savings of $70 million to $90 million.

讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片，深入了解我們的 Beyond250 成本節約項目。正如我之前提到的，奧林最重要的價值是我們對安全可靠營運的承諾，這是我們創造長期價值策略的基石。總體而言，我們預計我們的努力將使 2025 年底的運行成本節省 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元。

As part of our Optimize the Core strategic pillar, Beyond250 includes rightsizing our CAPV and Epoxy manufacturing facilities, accelerating a performance-driven culture, and leveraging continuous improvement and operational excellence initiatives. Through all of this, we will identify and implement best practices throughout our operations in both Chemicals and Winchester.

作為我們優化核心策略支柱的一部分，Beyond250 包括調整我們的 CAPV 和環氧樹脂製造設施的規模、加速績效驅動的文化，以及利用持續改進和卓越營運計畫。透過這一切，我們將在化學品和溫徹斯特的整個營運過程中確定並實施最佳實踐。

To accelerate our objectives, we've enlisted industry-leading specialists with the necessary talent and expertise. Our Freeport, Texas, site is piloting this transformation, taking the lead for our Chemicals businesses. This effort was launched during the second quarter.

為了加速實現我們的目標，我們聘請了具有必要才能和專業知識的行業領先專家。我們位於德州自由港的工廠正在試行這項轉型，為我們的化學品業務發揮領導作用。此項工作於第二季啟動。

Beyond250 will strip away various remnant costs left behind by our earlier asset closures. We anticipate this effort to be a significant driver of value. As a result, our manufacturing footprint will be more flexible, fit for purpose, and standardized across all Olin sites, yielding lower costs and increased reliability.

Beyond250 將消除我們早期資產關閉所留下的各種剩餘成本。我們預計這項努力將成為價值的重要推動力。因此，我們的製造足跡將更加靈活、更適合用途，並在所有 Olin 工廠實現標準化，從而降低成本並提高可靠性。

Our teams are already gaining momentum as we began to streamline our maintenance practices, reduce our contractor reliance, and ultimately, achieve a performance-driven culture. Also contributing to the cost savings, Winchester has implemented a parallel efficiency program and is on track to deliver on their commitments made during our Investor Day.

隨著我們開始簡化維護實踐、減少對承包商的依賴並最終實現績效驅動的文化，我們的團隊已經獲得了發展動力。溫徹斯特還實施了一項平行的效率計劃，並有望兌現其在投資者日期間所做的承諾，從而節省了成本。

I'll now turn the call over to Todd Slater to walk us through some financial highlights.

現在我將把電話轉給托德·斯萊特 (Todd Slater)，讓他向我們介紹一些財務亮點。

Thanks, Ken. I'll start with slide 8 for a review of our sequential quarterly adjusted EBITDA bridge. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA declined by 5% compared to the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to a headwind of $32 million of planned maintenance turnaround costs in our Chemicals businesses.

謝謝，肯。我將從第 8 張投影片開始回顧我們連續季度調整後的 EBITDA 橋。第二季調整後的 EBITDA 與 2025 年第一季相比下降了 5%，主要原因是我們的化學品業務計劃維護週轉成本高達 3,200 萬美元。

Seasonal demand improvement in our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business, as well as higher volumes and margins in Formulated Solutions within our Epoxy business, partially offset these increased turnaround costs.

我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基業務的季節性需求改善，以及環氧樹脂業務中配方解決方案的產量和利潤率的提高，部分抵消了這些增加的周轉成本。

The Winchester second-quarter segment results were comparable with those in the first quarter. Higher domestic and international military sales, along with greater revenue from military projects, were mostly offset by lower commercial ammunition pricing and higher commodity metal costs resulting from tariffs and threats of tariffs.

溫徹斯特第二季的分部業績與第一季的業績相當。國內和國際軍事銷售額的成長以及軍事項目收入的增加，大部分被關稅和關稅威脅導致的商業彈藥價格下降和商品金屬成本上升所抵消。

Now let's turn to slide 9 for a look at our cash flow and liquidity. With the continued challenging market conditions and uncertainty related to tariffs, we remain focused on maximizing cash generation, supported by our strong financial foundation.

現在讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片來看看我們的現金流和流動性。面對持續的市場挑戰和與關稅相關的不確定性，我們仍然專注於在強大的財務基礎的支持下最大限度地創造現金。

During the second quarter, we generated $212 million in operating cash flow. We were able to fund from cash flow the $56 million Winchester acquisition of the ammunition manufacturing assets in Manitowoc, Wisconsin. Additionally, in the quarter, we reduced debt by $39 million and continued share repurchases totaling $10 million.

第二季度，我們產生了 2.12 億美元的營運現金流。我們能夠利用現金流為溫徹斯特公司斥資 5,600 萬美元收購威斯康辛州馬尼托沃克的彈藥製造資產提供資金。此外，本季我們減少了 3,900 萬美元的債務，並繼續回購總額達 1,000 萬美元的股票。

During the second quarter, our teams accelerated their efforts on generating cash from reducing working capital. As a result, we generated $182 million from working capital, excluding tax payment timing. Through June 30, working capital, excluding the timing effects of tax payments, was a source of approximately $12 million in cash.

在第二季度，我們的團隊加快了透過減少營運資金來產生現金的努力。結果，我們從營運資金中產生了 1.82 億美元（不包括納稅時間）。截至 6 月 30 日，營運資金（不含納稅的時間效應）約為 1,200 萬美元的現金來源。

For 2025, we expect working capital to be a source of at least $100 million of cash, excluding the timing effects of tax payments. Consistent with what we had discussed last quarter, by year-end 2025, we expect net debt to be flat with year-end 2024.

到 2025 年，我們預計營運資金將成為至少 1 億美元現金來源（不包括納稅的時間效應）。與我們上個季度討論的內容一致，到 2025 年底，我們預計淨債務將與 2024 年底持平。

We remain committed to our disciplined capital allocation approach, and our priorities are clear: first and foremost, maintain our investment-grade balance sheet; second, fund our sustaining capital spending to maintain the safe and reliable operation of our assets; third, we are committed to maintaining our quarterly dividend; and then fourth, any available free cash flow was returned to our shareholders via either highly accretive growth opportunities, such as the second-quarter ammunition acquisition, or share buybacks.

我們將繼續堅持嚴謹的資本配置方法，我們的優先事項也很明確：首先，維持投資等級資產負債表；其次，為持續的資本支出提供資金，以維護資產的安全可靠運作；第三，我們致力於維持季度股息；第四，任何可用的自由現金流都將透過高增值成長機會（例如第二季的彈藥收購）或股票回購給股東。

Our teams continue to focus on cash generation, maintaining cost discipline and supporting our Beyond250 cost savings initiative. Our strong financial foundation enables Olin to continue executing our value-first commercial approach while adhering to our capital allocation priorities and a prudent capital structure with a strong balance sheet and cash flow.

我們的團隊繼續專注於現金創造、保持成本紀律並支持我們的 Beyond250 成本節約計劃。我們強大的財務基礎使 Olin 能夠繼續執行我們的價值優先商業方針，同時堅持我們的資本配置優先事項和審慎的資本結構，擁有強大的資產負債表和現金流。

Now I'll hand the call back to you, Ken.

現在我把電話交還給你，肯。

Thanks, Todd. Let's turn to slide 10 and our outlook for the third quarter. In the third quarter, we expect to see seasonal demand strength across Olin's businesses.

謝謝，托德。讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片，看看我們對第三季的展望。在第三季度，我們預計奧林各業務的季節性需求將強勁。

Our expectations for third-quarter Chemical earnings include seasonally stronger demand for caustic soda and bleach, EDC pricing that stabilizes around where we exited the second quarter, continued Formulated Solutions volume growth, and a benefit from lower turnaround expenses.

我們對第三季化學品收益的預期包括：燒鹼和漂白水的季節性需求增強、EDC 價格在第二季結束時穩定下來、配方解決方案銷售持續成長、以及週轉費用降低的好處。

Winchester sales are expected to be seasonally stronger in the third quarter, although the typical seasonal peak will be below normal levels. Earnings are expected to improve slightly in the third quarter despite significantly higher commodity and metals costs. To mitigate these higher costs, Winchester will be issuing a third-quarter commercial price increase.

溫徹斯特的銷售量預計將在第三季呈現季節性強勁成長，儘管典型的季節性高峰將低於正常水平。儘管大宗商品和金屬成本大幅上漲，但預計第三季獲利將略有改善。為了緩解這些更高的成本，溫徹斯特將在第三季提高商業價格。

Given the ongoing macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty, we expect Olin's third-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $170 million to $210 million. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

鑑於持續的宏觀經濟和關稅不確定性，我們預計 Olin 2025 年第三季的調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.7 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間。接線員，我們現在可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）David Begleiter，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Ken, I know you announced a caustic soda price increase back in June of $30 per ton. How is that price increase progressing?

謝謝。早安.肯，我知道你們在六月宣布將燒鹼價格上漲 30 美元/噸。價格上漲進度如何？

Good morning, Dave. Thank you for joining us. We appreciate that. Listen, we continue to see strength in our system around caustic in terms of supply and demand. Like we talked about at the first-quarter earnings call, the tightness in the market is really driven more by supply and stable demand. So the developments that we see in the demand are continuing to be consistent across quarters.

早上好，戴夫。感謝您加入我們。我們對此表示感謝。聽著，我們繼續看到我們的系統中腐蝕劑的供應和需求強勁。正如我們在第一季財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，市場緊張實際上更多是由供應和穩定的需求所驅動。因此，我們看到的需求發展在各個季度都保持一致。

There is some noise in the system right now, particularly around the tariff situation that, hopefully, we get some clarity around here in the next few days, but I think that's causing a little bit of backup in the system because what we're seeing is less material being exported to Latin America just because of the threat of the tariffs that are there, and I think that's causing some headwind in the caustic market in the short term, and we expect that to get worked through. That's why we highlighted the uncertainty in our prepared remarks. It's just to make sure we flag that. But once we get past the uncertainty, we still see continued strong demand -- relatively strong demand in the trough for caustic. So the expectation is that we're going to see some stability there.

目前系統中存在一些噪音，特別是圍繞關稅情況，希望我們能在接下來的幾天內得到一些澄清，但我認為這會給系統帶來一些備份，因為我們看到出口到拉丁美洲的材料減少，僅僅是因為那裡存在關稅的威脅，我認為這會在短期內給腐蝕性市場帶來一些阻力，我們預計這個問題會得到解決。這就是我們在準備好的發言中強調不確定性的原因。這只是為了確保我們標記出這一點。但一旦我們克服了不確定性，我們仍然會看到持續強勁的需求——在低谷時期對苛性鹼的需求相對強勁。因此我們期望那裡會出現一些穩定。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

花旗銀行的派崔克‧坎寧安 (Patrick Cunningham)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. On EDC pricing, it's down more than 50% year-to-date, took a significant step down 2Q versus 1Q, and pretty close to record lows for this time in the season.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。就 EDC 價格而言，今年迄今已下跌超過 50%，第二季與第一季相比大幅下跌，並且非常接近本季的歷史最低價。

I think last call, you seemed to indicate a floor in EDC pricing that didn't play out. I mean, have you seen any signs of potential -- any potential support here, whether it's rationalization of assets in Asia at these prices, or what gives you confidence that we have a floor here?

我認為最後一次，你似乎指出了 EDC 定價的底線，但並未實現。我的意思是，您是否看到任何潛在的跡象——任何潛在的支持，無論是在這些價格下亞洲資產的合理化，還是什麼讓您有信心我們在這裡有一個底部？

Good morning, Patrick. Yeah, great question. We did see prices dip lower than we expected during the second quarter. A lot of that -- if you go back to where we were when we were talking about this after the first quarter or during the first-quarter earnings call, the oil price has come down.

早上好，派崔克。是的，很好的問題。我們確實看到第二季的價格跌幅低於我們的預期。其中很多——如果你回顧我們在第一季後或第一季財報電話會議中談論這個問題時的情況，你會發現油價已經下跌了。

So we've seen some softness in the oil price, and that gave a little bit of a lifeline to some of the higher-cost Asian producers and allowed them to continue to participate in the market even at lower price levels than what we thought. So I do think that we're at a floor now, relatively speaking.

因此，我們看到油價有所走軟，這給一些成本較高的亞洲生產商提供了一點生命線，使他們能夠繼續參與市場，即使在價格水平低於我們的預期時也是如此。因此我確實認為，相對而言，我們現在處於底部。

We've seen, again, some stability here in the oil price. So as long as we see that, with our advantaged position that we have going back to the shale ethane advantage that we've got here in North America, we're the lowest-cost producer. So we're going to be able to continue to operate.

我們再次看到油價穩定。因此，只要我們看到這一點，憑藉我們在北美擁有的頁岩乙烷優勢，我們就是成本最低的生產商。因此我們將能夠繼續運作。

We are seeing some curtailments already in Asia because they've reached their limits. And that's encouraging that we're starting to see that. But we're really not going to see a recovery in the EDC market until we see a recovery in demand, and until you see housing come back and investments in real estate, frankly, around the world to start to absorb some of that capacity, we're going to continue to see challenges in the EDC market. So that's why we have said for the third quarter, we would expect to see EDC pricing staying in the similar level to where it was at the end of the quarter for the third quarter.

我們看到亞洲已經出現了一些減產現象，因為它們已經達到了極限。我們開始看到這一點令人鼓舞。但是，除非我們看到需求復甦，否則我們不會看到 EDC 市場真正復甦，除非我們看到住房回升，坦白說，世界各地的房地產投資開始吸收部分產能，否則我們將繼續看到 EDC 市場面臨挑戰。所以這就是為什麼我們說對於第三季度，我們預計 EDC 價格將保持與第三季末相似的水平。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲費雪。

Yeah, good morning. A couple of questions around Winchester, particularly on the commercial side. So roughly, what is price down? And is that price down to you, the supplier, or is that price down all the way through the retailer to the consumer?

是的，早安。關於溫徹斯特的幾個問題，特別是商業方面的問題。那麼，大致來說，價格下降意味著什麼？這個價格是由供應商決定的嗎？還是由零售商一直到消費者都決定的？

And then on the cost side, you mentioned metal, but are propellants still a year-over-year headwind on the cost side?

然後在成本方面，您提到了金屬，但推進劑在成本方面是否仍然是同比阻力？

Hi, Duffy. Thanks for joining us. Appreciate your question. To answer that, when we look at the commercial business for Winchester, especially year over year, and you look at the decline, about half of that is really driven by volume.

你好，達菲。感謝您的加入。感謝您的提問。為了回答這個問題，當我們觀察溫徹斯特的商業業務，特別是年比業務時，你會發現其下滑趨勢大約有一半是由銷售驅動的。

And then what's left is split pretty evenly between higher costs and lower pricing. And that's our pricing to our customers. So, as you know, our customers continue to destock. That destocking is taking longer than what we thought at the beginning of the year. Again, that's related to just weaker consumer demand, out-the-door sales at our customers, but to put a more specific answer on your question around propellants, yes, that continues to be a headwind versus prior year. That and metals are really the two things that are driving the higher costs, and that 25% or so of the lower margin that we're realizing today as part of the commercial business.

然後剩下的部分在較高成本和較低定價之間平均分配。這就是我們給客戶的定價。因此，如您所知，我們的客戶繼續減少庫存。去庫存化所花的時間比我們年初預想的要長。再次強調，這與消費者需求減弱、客戶的門外銷售有關，但為了更具體地回答您關於推進劑的問題，是的，與去年相比，這仍然是一個阻力。這和金屬實際上是導致成本上升的兩個因素，也是我們今天在商業業務中實現的 25% 左右的低利潤率的原因。

But like I said, we have got to start to get some price back. Margins have dropped to a level now that, frankly, are just -- they're just not acceptable. And we've got to start pushing price and get some recovery here.

但就像我說的，我們必須開始恢復一些價格。坦白說，利潤率現在已經下降到無法接受的水平。我們必須開始提高價格並實現一些復甦。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Yeah. Hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your cost savings program you talked about. So that $70 million to $90 million, how much do you achieve in fourth quarter versus goes into 2026?

是的。嗨，早安。我想知道您是否可以再多談談您談到的成本節約計劃。那麼，7,000 萬美元到 9,000 萬美元，您在第四季實現了多少收益，到 2026 年能實現多少收益？

And then assuming a lot of this is related with Freeport, how does the Dow and the Diamond Infrastructure Solutions kind of set up change your ability to get costs? Is that better or a worse situation for Olin? Thanks.

然後假設其中許多都與自由港有關，陶氏和鑽石基礎設施解決方案的設置如何改變您獲取成本的能力？對奧林來說，情況是變好了還是變壞了？謝謝。

Thank you, Josh. So I'm going to start, and then I'm going to hand it over to Todd and let him answer that as well. The cost reductions that we're looking at are not all at Freeport. There's -- the majority of it is at Freeport.

謝謝你，喬希。所以我要開始了，然後我會把它交給托德，讓他也回答這個問題。我們所關注的成本削減並不全在於自由港。其中大部分位於自由港。

But we are doing some other things at other sites like our McIntosh site, where we're rightsizing some of the infrastructure because, there, we took half of the capacity out, and we're rightsizing some of the infrastructure that supports what's left to make sure that we're not carrying higher-cost assets than we need to for the production that we've got at that site.

但是，我們在麥金托什等其他工廠也做了一些其他的事情，我們正在調整部分基礎設施的規模，因為我們已經削減了一半的產能，我們正在調整部分支持剩餘產能的基礎設施的規模，以確保我們不會攜帶成本高於該工廠生產所需的資產。

Generally, when we look at what we're doing as a company, we've got some very good operations, but I would say that we've gone a little bit too far when you think about using outside contractors, which is a great thing to do when you're trying to streamline and maybe bring in some expertise that outside contractors may have, and you do get a short-term kind of benefit in your cost structure, but if you do too much of that over time, you do start to find dis-synergies with that approach, and so now we've got to go back a little bit more to where we're controlling things and we're able to then get some costs out that have crept in because of some of the inefficiencies that have come as a result of that, but I'm going to let Todd talk a little bit more about the cost savings there.

一般來說，當我們審視我們作為一家公司所做的事情時，我們會發現我們的運營非常好，但我想說，我們在考慮使用外部承包商時做得太過火了，當你試圖簡化流程並引入外部承包商可能擁有的一些專業知識時，這是一件很好的事情，你確實會在成本結構中獲得短期利益，但如果你隨著時間的推移做得太多，你就會開始發現這種方法的不協同效應，所以現在我們必須回到我們控制事物的地方，然後我們就可以消除由於由此導致的一些低效率而產生的一些成本，但我會讓托德再多談一下這方面的成本節約。

Yeah. As we had talked in our last call, we would expect for the full year of 2025 that we will realize cost savings of between $50 million and $70 million from the structural cost and productivity initiatives that we have ongoing during the year.

是的。正如我們在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，我們預計到 2025 年全年，我們將透過今年正在進行的結構性成本和生產力舉措節省 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的成本。

As we exit the year, we do expect this Beyond250 initiative to improve that realization late in the year, and let us move into next year with a better tailwind. Also, don't forget, as we enter into 2026, we do have structural cost reductions coming in our Epoxy business that will lower our cost structure, in particular, in our Stade, Germany, facility, and we have commented on that before that it will be over half of our expected cost reductions for Epoxy, and we -- that number was over half of the $80 million of cost saved for Epoxy.

在即將結束這一年之際，我們確實希望 Beyond250 計畫能夠在年底改善這一現狀，讓我們在更好的順風條件下進入明年。另外，請不要忘記，隨著我們進入 2026 年，我們的環氧樹脂業務確實會進行結構性成本削減，這將降低我們的成本結構，特別是在我們位於德國施塔德的工廠，我們之前曾評論過，這將超過我們預期的環氧樹脂成本削減的一半，而且我們 - 這個數字超過了為環氧樹脂節省的 8000 萬美元成本的一半。

Thanks for your question, Josh.

謝謝你的提問，喬希。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to ask you about just general feel for Winchester. Is there a risk that things could actually get worse from here in the second half or in the next 12 months?

謝謝。大家早安。只是想問問您對溫徹斯特的整體感覺。下半年或未來 12 個月內情況是否有可能進一步惡化？

And on the cost side in Winchester, are your costs continue to ramp in the second half because of metals and because of sort of inventory cycle, that's just a part of the Winchester outlook?

在溫徹斯特的成本方面，由於金屬和庫存週期的原因，你們的成本在下半年是否會繼續上升，這只是溫徹斯特前景的一部分？

Yeah. Thank you for your question, Aleksey. Listen, it really is hard to see things getting worse. We're seeing margin levels that we've never seen before.

是的。謝謝你的提問，阿列克謝。聽著，看到事情變得更糟確實令人難過。我們看到了前所未有的利潤水平。

I had said on the prepared remarks that this is a perfect storm, and that's not an overstatement. We're not trying to be dramatic with that. We're really seeing things that we've not seen before, all happening at the same time in terms of destocking, higher cost, consumer spending being lower.

我在準備好的發言中說過，這是一場完美風暴，這並不誇張。我們並不是想製造戲劇性的效果。我們確實看到了以前從未見過的事情，所有這些都同時發生，包括去庫存、成本上升、消費者支出下降。

Those things are not going to last forever. This is not structural. I don't see things getting worse with Winchester, but of course, there are always things that could happen. We didn't anticipate the situation around tariffs on copper pricing, and those are things that we just can't anticipate and are completely out of our control. And we're going to do everything we can to offset those, but I just don't really see that being a real case here.

這些事情不會永遠持續下去。這不是結構性的。我不認為溫徹斯特的情況會變得更糟，但當然，總是有可能發生一些事情。我們沒有預料到銅定價關稅的情況，這些都是我們無法預料且完全不受我們控制的事情。我們將竭盡全力來抵消這些影響，但我真的不認為這是一個真實的案例。

I think, as we said, you're going to see a little bit of an improvement in the third quarter. We've got to get some pricing back through the chain. That's just something we've got to get because we've seen so many costs pressures. Some of that's going to have to start to go through in pricing. And so we're going to push very hard on that.

我認為，正如我們所說，你會在第三季看到一些改善。我們必須透過連鎖店重新獲得一些定價。這是我們必須要做的，因為我們已經看到太多的成本壓力了。其中一些必須開始透過定價來實現。因此，我們將竭盡全力推動這一進程。

Todd, do you want to add anything to that?

托德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Aleksey, as you know, we do hedge some of our raw materials, in particular copper. So copper has moved up during the second quarter and here early in the third quarter with the threats of tariffs. Originally, the threat was 25%, and now it's a 50% threat of tariff on copper, and as a result, you've seen copper, relatively speaking, was around $4 a ton, and now it's well over $5.5. Those costs will seed into our system as we start here into the back half of the year and on into next year, but we are a hedger, so you'll see that move in a little slower than if we were just a general spot buyer. That's why when we talk about needing to raise price in -- here in the third quarter, that is necessary to offset this higher -- if copper stays up, this higher commodity cost structure that's coming for Winchester.

是的。阿列克謝，如你所知，我們確實對一些原材料進行了對沖，特別是銅。因此，由於關稅威脅，銅價在第二季和第三季初上漲。最初的威脅是25%，現在則是50%的銅關稅威脅。結果，你會看到，銅價相對而言，從每噸4美元左右，到現在已經遠遠超過5.5美元。這些成本將從今年下半年開始，甚至明年，逐漸滲透到我們的系統。但我們是避險者，所以你會發現，這些成本的流入速度會比我們作為一般現貨買家時略慢一些。這就是為什麼當我們談論需要在第三季提高價格時，有必要抵消這種上漲的影響——如果銅價持續上漲，溫徹斯特將面臨更高的商品成本結構。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed），Alembic Global。

Morning, Ken and Todd. Guys, I am just trying to bridge the Q3 guidance range of $170 million to $210 million in EBITDA you guys have given with the $176 million you reported in Q2. I mean, as I sort of read through the guidance commentary, in CAPV, you guys won't have the unplanned events. In Epoxy, you'll have lower maintenance costs. It seems Winchester, things will be seasonally better in Q3. And I understand maybe costs play a certain role there, but along even product lines, you guys are talking about higher sort of bleach volumes and caustic volumes and at the very least, pricing to be stable. So as I sort of connect all of these dots, I mean, from the sounds of it, it seems the number for Q3 could be at the higher end of that guidance range, particularly keeping in mind the $176 million you guys reported in Q2.

早上好，肯和托德。夥計們，我只是想將你們給出的第三季度 EBITDA 指導範圍 1.7 億美元至 2.1 億美元與你們在第二季度報告的 1.76 億美元進行對比。我的意思是，當我閱讀指導評論時，在 CAPV 中，你們不會遇到意外事件。使用環氧樹脂，您的維護成本會更低。溫徹斯特看來，第三季的情況將會有所改善。我明白成本可能在其中發揮了一定的作用，但即使在產品線上，你們也在談論更高種類的漂白水和苛性鹼的用量，至少價格要穩定。因此，當我將所有這些點連接起來時，我的意思是，從聽起來，第三季度的數字可能處於指導範圍的高端，特別是考慮到你們在第二季度報告的 1.76 億美元。

So what am I missing over here?

那麼我在這裡遺漏了什麼？

Hi, Hassan. Thanks for joining. Listen, we -- obviously, we want to be at the high end of the range. There's no doubt about it, but I'll tell you, just like we talked about on the first-quarter earnings call, we put a broader range out there, so you look at $170 million to $210 million, the reason why it's so broad is because of the amount of uncertainty that we see, and hopefully, we start to get some more stability here in the back half of the year. So yes, there are some things that are going to improve. We're going to see sequentially some lower turnaround costs. Obviously, the plan is for us to be able to operate our assets more reliably.

你好，哈桑。感謝您的加入。聽著，我們——顯然，我們希望處於高端。毫無疑問，但我要告訴你，就像我們在第一季財報電話會議上談到的那樣，我們給出了一個更廣泛的範圍，所以你看 1.7 億美元到 2.1 億美元，之所以範圍如此之廣，是因為我們看到了很大的不確定性，希望我們在今年下半年能開始獲得更多的穩定性。是的，有些事情將會改善。我們將會看到週轉成本逐漸降低。顯然，該計劃是為了讓我們能夠更可靠地運作我們的資產。

That's something -- we're not planning to return to that, but there will continue to be some headwinds. So the higher raw material costs that we talked about around Winchester, that is going to happen, and frankly, we've got to see some of the price improvement. Now let's see what happens with that, but the other thing is the EDC pricing. As we went through the quarter, in the second quarter, it really dropped quite a bit, and what we're now projecting in the third quarter is that we're going to be stable at that lower level, and we're the biggest exporter of EDC from the US market. That's a pretty painful part of the equation here.

那就是——我們不打算回到那種情況，但仍會繼續面臨一些阻力。因此，我們談到的溫徹斯特原物料成本上漲的情況將會發生，坦白說，我們必須看到價格有所改善。現在讓我們看看會發生什麼，但另一件事是 EDC 定價。在我們度過這個季度時，在第二季度，它確實下降了不少，我們現在預測第三季度我們將穩定在較低水平，我們是美國市場最大的 EDC 出口國。這是等式中相當痛苦的一部分。

So when we look at all of that on balance, we think that the first quarter -- sorry, the third quarter can look pretty similar to the second quarter in terms of results, but obviously, we're going to be working really hard to be at the high end of that range. We're going to continue to be very focused on generating as much cash flow as we can.

因此，當我們綜合考慮所有這些因素時，我們認為第一季——抱歉，第三季的業績可能與第二季非常相似，但顯然，我們將非常努力地達到該範圍的高端。我們將繼續致力於創造盡可能多的現金流。

That is something that I can promise you the organization knows. We're not getting a lot of help from the market, so we've got to help ourselves in terms of our costs and our cash generation. Those are things that we're going to continue to prioritize.

我可以向你們保證，組織知道這一點。我們沒有從市場獲得太多幫助，所以我們必須在成本和現金創造方面自救。這些都是我們將繼續優先考慮的事情。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

美國銀行的馬修‧德約 (Matthew DeYoe)。

Hi, everyone. I guess, stay with me here a little bit because this is going to be a little bit -- a long one, but if I look at your ECI chart, I think the index score is 186 in 2Q of '25. And if I look at the average for 2021, it was 200. But back then, you did $2.1 billion of EBITDA in [CAPV] and Epoxy. And in 2022, you did a similar $2.1 billion, but that score was 274, and I'm looking at 2025 EBITDA, and I don't know, maybe it comes in a little over $100 million better than 2020, maybe a little bit more than that, but you're 70 to 80 points higher than this 2020 index score. So like what do I make of all this? Is this really the best way to be telling a story of value creation, and like, where is the negative operating leverage coming in here into this index and your profits that maybe wasn't there two years ago?

大家好。我想，請您稍等片刻，因為這個主題會有點長，但如果我看一下您的 ECI 圖表，我認為 2025 年第二季的指數得分是 186。如果我看一下 2021 年的平均值，它是 200。但當時，你們在 [CAPV] 和 Epoxy 的 EBITDA 為 21 億美元。而在 2022 年，您的營收也達到了類似的 21 億美元，但得分是 274 分，而我正在研究 2025 年的 EBITDA，我不知道，也許比 2020 年高出 1 億美元多一點，也許再多一點，但比 2020 年的指數得分高出 1 億美元多一點，也許再多一點，但比 2020 年的指數得分高出 1 億美元多一點，也許再多一點，但比 2020 年的指數得分高出 80 分。那我該如何看待這一切呢？這真的是講述價值創造故事的最佳方式嗎？而且，這個指數中的負經營槓桿和兩年前可能不存在的利潤是從哪裡來的？

Hi, Matt. Thanks for the question. Listen, I think if you look at what we're trying to portray here with this index is to give people some confidence in our commercial model, where we're focusing on value, and what you see being delivered with our portfolio is stability in the ECU values, and we talked about that at the Investor Day that that is going to be our focus, especially here at the trough level. So there's definitely a volume element to this. We are at trough demand levels, and if you look just at the stability in that line since the -- really the third quarter -- fourth quarter of 2023, that average is going to still be below the average of 2021 if you just take the numbers.

你好，馬特。謝謝你的提問。聽著，我認為如果你看一下我們試圖透過這個指數在這裡描繪的內容，那就是讓人們對我們的商業模式有一些信心，我們專注於價值，而你看到的我們的投資組合所帶來的是 ECU 價值的穩定性，我們在投資者日談到了這一點，這將是我們的重點，特別是在低谷水平。因此這其中肯定有一個數量因素。我們正處於需求低谷，如果你只看自 2023 年第三季至第四季以來該線的穩定性，那麼如果你只看數字，該平均值仍將低於 2021 年的平均值。

So you saw quite a steep ramp-up there at the back end of 2021. I hope we see that at the back end of 2025. Unfortunately, I think in the market that we're in, that's very unlikely that we're going to see something like that.

因此，您將看到 2021 年末出現相當急劇的增長。我希望我們能在 2025 年底看到這一點。不幸的是，我認為在我們所處的市場中，我們不太可能看到這樣的事情。

So we're focused on being disciplined. We're focused on being able to maintain stability with our portfolio and generate as much value as we can at the trough conditions that we're in. That's how we see things playing out for the remainder of the year.

因此，我們注重紀律。我們專注於保持投資組合的穩定，並在當前的低谷時期創造盡可能多的價值。這就是我們對今年剩餘時間狀況的看法。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Thank you, and good morning. You mentioned lower EDC prices in your Q3 guide. Could you talk about where Olin's utilization rates are for EDC these days, and I think at one point, every $0.01 per pound in EDC was worth about $20 million in EBITDA for Olin. I think that number is probably lower today. Do you think that sensitivity of maybe $10 million to $15 million EBITDA for every $0.01 EDC is appropriate? Thanks.

謝謝，早安。您在第三季指南中提到了較低的 EDC 價格。您能否談談 Olin 目前對 EDC 的利用率是多少，我認為在某一時刻，EDC 每磅 0.01 美元就為 Olin 帶來了約 2000 萬美元的 EBITDA。我認為今天這個數字可能更低。您認為每 0.01 美元 EDC 的敏感度大概為 1000 萬美元到 1500 萬美元 EBITDA 合適嗎？謝謝。

Hi, Matthew. Thanks for the question. Look, we continue to see the headwinds in the EDC market just in terms of supply and demand. There's not a lot of relief that we see in the short term there, but going back to what I said earlier, in terms of the cost structure, we're the most advantaged, so we're going to continue to operate our assets at a point that we can create the most value from the position that we have.

你好，馬修。謝謝你的提問。看起來，我們繼續看到 EDC 市場在供需方面面臨阻力。短期內我們看不到太多緩解，但回到我之前所說的，就成本結構而言，我們是最有優勢的，所以我們將繼續經營我們的資產，以便從現有地位創造最大價值。

In the second quarter, utilization rates were down a little bit. We had some turnaround activity. So that impacted the second-quarter utilization rates, but we're going to continue to operate where we think we can generate the highest value of the asset that we've got, so utilization rates in Q3, you would expect them to come up just because we don't have the turnaround, but it's not something where we're going to be focusing on utilization rate. We're going to be focusing on value.

第二季度，利用率略有下降。我們進行了一些扭轉局面的活動。所以這影響了第二季度的利用率，但我們將繼續在我們認為可以創造最高資產價值的地方運營，因此，第三季度的利用率會上升，因為我們沒有扭虧為盈，但這不是我們關注利用率的地方。我們將關注價值。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Thank you, and good morning. So much of the uncertainty appears to be around tariffs and potential retaliatory actions by Brazil, so I'm just curious if you could talk through order of magnitude, how important is Brazil for Olin's caustic soda export sales?

謝謝，早安。許多不確定性似乎都與關稅和巴西可能採取的報復行動有關，所以我很好奇您是否可以談談數量級，巴西對奧林的燒鹼出口銷售有多重要？

And obviously, caustic is a pretty fungible product. So assuming that Brazil comes back with heavy retaliatory tariffs on caustic, how would you -- can you talk to the various scenarios of how the trade flows would move and how long it would take to normalize? Because, again, it is a pretty fungible product. Thank you.

顯然，腐蝕劑是一種可替代的產品。那麼，假設巴西對腐蝕劑徵收嚴厲的報復性關稅，您能否談談貿易流動將如何變化以及需要多長時間才能恢復正常化的各種情況？因為，再說一次，它是一種相當可替代的產品。謝謝。

Yeah. Thank you, Frank. You're exactly right; it is. It's a global market. It's an important one for us. You can -- you've seen the data. North America is a big exporter of caustic to South America, and as I have mentioned before, I do think that some of the noise that we're seeing just around caustic availability on the Gulf Coast and pricing, some of that is related to people not knowing where to move their product because they don't want to take the risk. They're going to put something on the water and then have a 50% tariff, right? That would be the worst-case scenario.

是的。謝謝你，弗蘭克。你說得完全正確；確實如此。這是一個全球市場。這對我們來說很重要。您可以—您已經看到了數據。北美是向南美出口苛性鹼的大型地區，正如我之前提到的，我確實認為，我們看到的有關墨西哥灣沿岸苛性鹼供應和定價的一些噪音，其中一些與人們不知道將他們的產品運往何處有關，因為他們不想承擔風險。他們要在水上投放一些東西，然後徵收 50% 的關稅，對嗎？那將是最壞的情況。

It won't take that long to kind of rewire where things are being shipped around. So I would say there's probably a month or two months of noise that if there were to be some big retaliatory tariff put in place, it's going to take a month or two months to get things worked back out, where you start to see products flow into Latin America maybe from Europe or from Asia. And then you're going to see product going into those regions out of North America.

重新佈線運輸貨物並不需要花太長時間。所以我想說，可能會有一兩個月的時間，人們都在說，如果要實施某種大規模的報復性關稅，那麼需要一兩個月的時間才能讓事情恢復正常，到時候你就會開始看到產品從歐洲或亞洲流入拉丁美洲。然後你會看到產品從北美進入這些地區。

Things will get reestablished and settle in a new trade flow. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. It's been a little bit encouraging to me that we've not heard a whole lot coming out of Brazil since the initial announcement about tariffs, around retaliatory tariffs. So I hope that this is going to get resolved and we can put this behind us, but it's too early to say.

一切將會在新的貿易流中重建並穩定下來。但願這樣的事情不會發生。令我感到有些鼓舞的是，自從巴西首次宣布徵收關稅和報復性關稅以來，我們並沒有聽到太多消息。所以我希望這個問題能夠解決，我們可以把它拋在腦後，但現在說還太早。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），Vertical Research Partners。

Yes. Thank you, and good morning. Ken, just to follow up on the prior question, what impact, if any, do you think the tariff-related and trade flow-related uncertainties will have on Olin's Chlor Alkali operating rates in the third quarter, and related to that, maybe you could also weave in a comment on the operational challenges that you experienced. I'm not sure what exactly the impact of that was in the quarter, for example, and whether or not it's confined to the second quarter, or there might be any spillover into the third quarter? Thank you very much.

是的。謝謝，早安。肯，只是想跟進一下之前的問題，您認為與關稅和貿易流相關的不確定性會對奧林第三季度的氯鹼開工率產生什麼影響（如果有的話），與此相關，也許您還可以就您所經歷的運營挑戰發表評論。例如，我不確定這對本季度的具體影響是什麼，以及它是否僅限於第二季度，或者是否會蔓延到第三季度？非常感謝。

Thank you, Kevin. So listen, just in terms of tariffs, like we had discussed in the prepared comments, right now, we think that it's net neutral for CAPV. The real headwind would come in the case where there are significant retaliatory tariffs put on by Brazil.

謝謝你，凱文。所以聽著，就關稅而言，就像我們在準備好的評論中討論的那樣，現在，我們認為它對 CAPV 來說是淨中性的。真正的阻力將出現在巴西徵收巨額報復性關稅的情況下。

Now again, we don't have visibility to that. August 1 is right around the corner, so we'll know something relatively soon, but even then, things can change pretty rapidly, as we've seen, so it's really more about that in terms of CAPV and the impact around tariffs than anything else.

現在我們再次看不到這一點。8 月 1 日即將到來，因此我們很快就會知道一些消息，但即便如此，正如我們所見，情況也可能會發生迅速變化，因此，就 CAPV 和關稅影響而言，這實際上比其他任何事情都更重要。

I think once we get past that, if we can get some certainty there, then I think things are going to kind of get in a state of equilibrium, and we're going to get back to a new normal, whatever that might look like, but that's the real threat around tariffs that I see.

我認為，一旦我們度過了這個難關，如果我們能夠獲得一些確定性，那麼我認為事情就會進入一種平衡狀態，我們就會回到一種新的常態，無論它看起來是什麼樣子，但這是我所看到的關稅帶來的真正威脅。

Now in terms of the operating issues that we had down at Freeport, we did have the chlorine leak there. It was very unfortunate. That is behind us now. We have restarted all of the assets. We did take some downtime in the second quarter, but everything is running, and we've got everything corrected.

現在就我們在自由港遇到的營運問題而言，那裡確實發生了氯氣洩漏。這非常不幸。現在那已經是過去式了。我們已經重新啟動了所有資產。我們在第二季確實經歷了一些停工期，但一切仍在運行，而且我們已經糾正了所有問題。

We do have an investigation that's ongoing. Once that's finalized, of course, there'll be more that comes out about that, but we are still in the middle of the formal investigation, and we'll share more once we have that, but fortunately, we didn't have any injuries as a result of that.

我們確實正在進行調查。當然，一旦最終確定，就會有更多相關消息公佈，但我們仍處於正式調查之中，一旦有消息我們會分享更多信息，但幸運的是，我們沒有因此受到任何傷害。

We've been very focused on making sure that we've got corrective actions in place to make sure that it doesn't happen again, and that includes engaging with the community and making sure that everyone is safe working at our sites and living around our sites.

我們一直非常注重確保採取糾正措施，以確保此類事件不再發生，其中包括與社區合作，確保在我們的場所工作和在場所周圍生活的每個人都能安全。

Bhavesh Lodaya, BMO Capital Markets.

Bhavesh Lodaya，BMO 資本市場。

Good morning. Maybe one more on the tariff landscape. Things are obviously moving quite quickly there. Have you seen signs of the customers raising their inventories ahead of any potential negative announcements and if that turns into a headwind if tariffs are actually eventually resolved? Or if not, then maybe just a reminder on where customer inventories stand across our CAPV business today?

早安.也許還有一個關於關稅情勢的問題。那裡的事情顯然進展得相當快。您是否看到有跡象表明客戶在任何潛在的負面公告發布之前增加庫存，如果關稅最終得到解決，這是否會變成不利因素？或者如果不是，那麼也許只是提醒一下我們目前 CAPV 業務的客戶庫存狀況？

Yeah. Bhavesh, you broke up there for a second. I think your question was around customer inventory levels and CAPV. This goes back to even, gosh, probably late '23, early 2024, where we were seeing in the chain, people were destocking.

是的。Bhavesh，你剛才崩潰了。我認為您的問題是關於客戶庫存水準和 CAPV。天哪，這甚至可以追溯到 2023 年底或 2024 年初，那時我們看到整個供應鏈中人們都在減少庫存。

We have not seen people really begin to restock or take positions in terms of inventory other than maybe a little bit of seasonality since then. And I don't think that you're going to see any kind of a restocking happen in the CAPV chains until you start to see recovery in the markets and some price improvement so people are doing what they should do. They're focusing on their balance sheet, and they're focusing on making sure that they create cash and generate cash in this environment, and we haven't seen any change in that behavior among our customers in the CAPV business.

自那時以來，除了一點季節性因素外，我們還沒有看到人們真正開始補充庫存或採取庫存措施。我認為，除非市場開始復甦、價格有所改善，否則 CAPV 連鎖店不會出現任何形式的補貨現象，人們才會做他們應該做的事情。他們專注於自己的資產負債表，專注於確保在這種環境下創造現金並產生現金，而我們尚未看到 CAPV 業務客戶的這種行為發生任何變化。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Hey, good morning, guys. For Winchester, where do you think EBITDA margins or just EBITDA on an annualized basis can get back to, given where are we at now?

嘿，大家早安。對於溫徹斯特，考慮到我們現在的狀況，您認為 EBITDA 利潤率或年度 EBITDA 可以恢復到多少？

And then just a quick follow-up on Chlor Alkali. If the housing market remains sluggish, which some have said could happen into the second half and maybe in the first half, what do you think the industry needs to do to maybe shore up profitability from here, and would you consider doing anything major in kind of improving the profitability there?

然後對氯鹼進行快速跟進。如果房地產市場持續低迷，有人說這種情況可能會持續到下半年甚至上半年，您認為房地產行業需要採取哪些措施來鞏固目前的獲利能力？您是否考慮採取一些重大措施來提高房地產行業的獲利能力？

Hi, Mike. Thank you for your question. Listen, yeah, we certainly believe that Winchester margins are going to recover. This is the perfect storm in terms of costs being higher, consumer spending being lower. All of those things are going to work through the system.

你好，麥克。感謝您的提問。聽著，是的，我們確實相信溫徹斯特的利潤率將會恢復。從成本上升、消費者支出下降的角度來看，這是一場完美風暴。所有這些事情都將透過系統來實現。

Whether it takes six months or a year, I don't know. It's going to take more time, though, that the destocking, as we had commented earlier, is definitely going to go through 2025. We still see inventory levels that are elevated. They have come down, but still elevated, and then when we look at what we see in the chemical market, I do see some signs of encouragement and, frankly, some things that you would normally see at the bottom of a cycle, which is you start to see rationalization of assets, and you look at even what China is talking about doing. The China involution is something that I am optimistic is going to have some impact. It will take time. This is not the first time China has talked about rationalizing either government-controlled, state-owned entities that are older, higher costs, more polluting. They've talked about this for years, but I do think that you're getting to a tipping point where the amount of capacity and the squeeze on margins -- because whether you look at Epoxy, whether you look at Chlor Alkali, PVC, a lot of these businesses, they are losing money. They're losing cash. They're not just on a P&L basis negative; they're cash negative, and they can only carry that for so long.

我不知道這是否需要六個月或一年。不過，這還需要更多時間，正如我們之前所說，去庫存肯定會持續到 2025 年。我們仍然看到庫存水準居高不下。它們有所下降，但仍然處於高位，然後，當我們看看化工市場的情況時，我確實看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象，坦率地說，你通常會在周期的底部看到一些事情，那就是你開始看到資產合理化，你甚至看看中國正在談論的事情。我樂觀地認為，中國的內捲化將會產生一定的影響。這需要時間。這並不是中國第一次談論對那些老舊、成本較高、污染較嚴重的政府控制的國有實體進行合理化改革。他們多年來一直在談論這個問題，但我確實認為，你已經到達了一個臨界點，產能和利潤率受到擠壓——因為無論你看環氧樹脂、氯鹼、聚氯乙烯，這些企業很多都在虧損。他們正在虧損現金。他們的損益表不只是為負數，他們的現金也是為負數，而且他們只能承受這種狀態一段時間。

So there is going to be rationalization in the market. It's going to take time; it always does, but I am encouraged by some of the signs that we see and the strength that we have as a company, the financial foundation that we've got, the strength of our balance sheet -- you saw what we were able to do with our cash generation in the second quarter. Those are the things that are going to carry us through to where we start to come out of this trough, and I am very optimistic about the future, and I feel very good about the position that Olin is in, where we're at today, and how our team has been able to manage the performance around cash generation and the focus on value. It has really been great to see.

因此市場將會合理化。這需要時間；總是需要時間的，但是我們看到的一些跡像以及我們作為一家公司所擁有的實力、我們擁有的財務基礎、我們資產負債表的實力令我感到鼓舞——您看到了我們在第二季度利用現金創造所取得的成就。這些都是將帶領我們走出低谷的因素，我對未來非常樂觀，我對奧林所處的地位、我們今天所處的位置以及我們的團隊如何能夠圍繞現金創造和價值關注來管理績效感到非常滿意。看到這些真的很棒。

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的約翰羅伯茲。

Thank you. Could you scope for us at all what the September quarter headwind might be if we had a 50% tariff on US caustic soda into Brazil? You talked about a couple of months of turmoil.

謝謝。如果對美國輸往巴西的燒鹼徵收 50% 的關稅，您能否為我們預測一下，9 月季度的不利因素可能是什麼？您談到了幾個月的動盪。

Hi, John. Thank you for the question. Listen, it is difficult to put a number on that because we don't really have an idea what the retaliatory tariff would be, if there is any at all. So when I think about it, there's a direct impact and then there's an indirect impact, and probably, the short-term indirect impacts are going to be worse than anything else because it's going to take you a month or two for all the trade flows to get rewired here because you can imagine, we're certainly not going to be paying a 50% tariff going into Brazil, if that were the case, so we're going to be moving products into different regions, and we've got -- it takes a little bit of time to do that. That will create noise just around spot pricing that you'll probably see on the Gulf Coast. I think we're already starting to see some of that today. So we really need to get this behind us to get more stability and to get things established to whatever region we're going to be exporting product to, but I want to go back to the other point that I made earlier. Demand is still stable. We are not seeing any deterioration in demand globally around caustic. I'm not saying that it's gangbuster, but we are seeing robust demand, and it's just a matter now of being able for the market to react to these tariffs and let that get digested by supply chains.

你好，約翰。謝謝你的提問。聽著，很難給一個數字，因為我們真的不知道報復性關稅會是多少，如果有的話。所以當我考慮這個問題時，就會發現有直接影響，也有間接影響，而且可能短期間接影響比其他任何事情都更糟糕，因為所有的貿易流需要一兩個月的時間才能重新連接起來，因為你可以想像，如果真是這樣，我們肯定不會為進入巴西的產品支付 50% 的關稅，所以我們會將產品轉移到不同的地區，這需要一點時間。這可能會對墨西哥灣沿岸的現貨定價產生影響。我想我們今天已經開始看到一些這樣的情況了。因此，我們確實需要解決這個問題，以獲得更大的穩定性，並在我們要向其出口產品的任何地區建立起體系，但我想回到我之前提出的另一點。需求依然穩定。我們沒有看到全球範圍內對苛性鹼的需求有任何惡化。我並不是說這是轟動性的，但我們確實看到了強勁的需求，現在的問題是市場能否對這些關稅做出反應，並讓供應鏈消化掉這些關稅。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. I think the Brazilian tariff on caustic these days is about 7%. In general, do you pay that, or do you sell caustic to a trader who pays that?

非常感謝。我認為目前巴西對苛性鹼的關稅約為7％。一般來說，您會支付這筆錢嗎，或者您會將苛性鹼賣給支付這筆錢的商人嗎？

And exclusive of retaliatory tariffs, hasn't the Brazil Chemical Association wanted to or has petitioned the government to increase tariffs to 18% because their domestic industry is losing share, and what do you think the normal timeframe for an adjudication of that issue is?

除了報復性關稅之外，巴西化學協會是否曾希望或已經請求政府將關稅提高到 18%，因為其國內產業正在失去份額，您認為裁決該問題的正常時間框架是什麼時候？

And then for Todd, you said that the working capital benefit would be about $100 million, but there would be an $80 million offset from a tax payment. Your deferred taxes for the first half of the year are a little bit more than $50 million.

然後對於托德，您說營運資本收益約為 1 億美元，但將從稅收中抵消 8000 萬美元。您今年上半年的遞延稅款略高於 5000 萬美元。

Does that mean that the deferred tax burden is $80 million in total? Or is it a higher number and this $80 million hasn't been paid yet? Can you balance the deferred tax number with the working capital number?

這是否意味著遞延稅負總計為 8,000 萬美元？或者這個數字更高，而這 8000 萬美元尚未支付？您能平衡遞延稅項數字和營運資本數字嗎？

Good morning, Jeff. Thank you for joining us. Listen, I think the key difference here around the tariffs that you just mentioned is retaliatory tariffs specifically against the United States are different than a general tariff for all imports.

早安，傑夫。感謝您加入我們。聽著，我認為您剛才提到的關稅的主要區別在於，專門針對美國的報復性關稅不同於針對所有進口產品的一般關稅。

When there's a general tariff for all imports, what we've seen, at least in commodity chemicals, is you will see the domestic price rise to reflect that tariff because everybody faces the same tariff. We are seeing that even in the Mexican market today with the tariff that they have, so a general tariff for everyone doesn't concern me as a US producer like a retaliatory tariff potentially of 50%. Now we don't know where that's going to be, but if there's a 50% tariff just against the US, that is a different animal entirely than a general tariff, which everybody is going to have to absorb and pass on to the market, which is typically what we see happening.

當所有進口商品都徵收通用關稅時，至少在大宗化學品方面，我們看到國內價格上漲以反映該關稅，因為每個人都面臨相同的關稅。我們看到，即使在今天的墨西哥市場，他們也徵收關稅，因此，作為美國生產商，我並不擔心針對所有人徵收的普遍關稅，例如可能高達 50% 的報復性關稅。現在我們不知道具體情況會怎樣，但如果僅對美國徵收 50% 的關稅，那就與一般關稅完全不同了，一般關稅是每個人都必須吸收並轉嫁給市場，而這正是我們通常看到的情況。

So, Todd, do you want to take the question around the working capital tax?

那麼，托德，你想回答有關營運資本稅的問題嗎？

Sure. No, thanks for the question, Jeff. Overall, on cash taxes for '20 -- for cash taxes for 2025, we expect the full year, we expect to pay around $175 million. Through the end of the second quarter, we've paid $144 million, so in the back half of the year, we would obviously think we're going to spend another $30 million in cash taxes in the last part of the year. I think that probably gets at your ultimate deferred tax question. When we look at our overall tax position, that's what we think.

當然。不，謝謝你的提問，傑夫。總體而言，對於 2020 年的現金稅——2025 年的現金稅，我們預計全年將支付約 1.75 億美元。截至第二季末，我們已經支付了 1.44 億美元，因此在下半年，我們顯然認為我們將在年底再花費 3000 萬美元的現金稅。我認為這可能涉及您最終的遞延稅問題。當我們審視我們的整體稅務狀況時，我們就是這樣想的。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Just a question again on Winchester and the pricing, I just want to make sure I understand the cadence of what's happened. It seems like in the second quarter, there was some competitive pricing activity, and maybe you could help us understand whether those were list price declines or whether they were buy one get one or whatever the structure of that was, but going to 3Q because of inflation, you're looking to raise prices, and I'm wondering whether the competitors have matched those price increases, or maybe that's not clear yet one way or the other, but if they don't, are you baking into the forecast of potential volume erosion if you're sort of widening price gaps into a negative-volume market?

謝謝，大家早安。再次詢問溫徹斯特和定價的問題，我只是想確保我了解發生的事情的節奏。似乎在第二季度，存在一些競爭性定價活動，也許您可以幫助我們了解這些是標價下降還是買一送一，或者無論其結構如何，但由於通貨膨脹，到第三季度，您正在尋求提高價格，我想知道競爭對手是否也匹配了這些價格上漲，或者也許目前還不清楚，但如果他們沒有這樣做，如果您將價格差距擴大到負銷量市場，您是否會預測結果？

Hi, Vincent. Thanks for joining us. Listen, we've seen -- since the end of the year last year, what we've seen is a combination of price -- just general price erosion, rebates that have been granted. That's predominantly what we have seen in the marketplace.

你好，文森特。感謝您的加入。聽著，我們已經看到——自去年年底以來，我們看到的是價格的綜合變化——只是普遍的價格下降，還有折扣的發放。這主要是我們在市場上看到的。

Now I don't want to get into commenting on what retailers are doing because there's a pretty broad portfolio of products that you can't draw -- you can't paint everything with the same brush. But there are some promotions that you see flowing through even into retail. Just in general, we have seen that, and we see that at the same time that costs are exploding. That has to change for us as Winchester. I'm not going to comment on what others are doing. They can do what they want to do, but we've got to find a way to improve our margins in the face of really historic cost increases and destocking implications here, so that is something that we're looking to do in the third quarter. Like I had said in the prepared remarks, we expect to see some improvement in Winchester. Some of that is going to be seasonal. Some of that will be a little bit of margin, but I hope we can get even more, to be honest with you,

現在我不想評論零售商在做什麼，因為產品組合非常廣泛，你無法一概而論——你無法用同一把刷子將所有東西都畫出來。但你會看到有些促銷活動甚至延伸到了零售業。總的來說，我們已經看到了這一點，同時我們也看到成本正在激增。作為溫徹斯特，我們必須改變這種狀況。我不會評論其他人在做什麼。他們可以做他們想做的事，但面對歷史性的成本增加和去庫存的影響，我們必須找到一種方法來提高我們的利潤率，所以這是我們希望在第三季度做的事情。正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們期待看到溫徹斯特有所改善。其中一些將是季節性的。其中有些會有一些餘地，但我希望我們能得到更多，老實說，

but right now, it's a tough market, and our teams are going to be focused on getting the best that they can in terms of value. We're going to have the same value approach and mindset that we have with Winchester that we've got in Chemicals. It's not just for Chemicals that we're thinking about that, but we've got to get more in terms of margin out of that business.

但目前市場競爭激烈，我們的團隊將專注於在價值上取得最大成果。我們將對溫徹斯特和化學物質採取同樣的價值觀和思維方式。我們考慮的不僅僅是化學品業務，我們必須從該業務中獲得更多的利潤。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I hope you guys are well. So a little bit of a two-part question. So first off, you guys had mentioned that the value-over-the-volume strategy is still kind of your preferred operating strategy. Just wanted to confirm that's still the case?

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。我希望你們都好。所以這個問題分成兩個部分。首先，你們提到價值高於數量策略仍然是你們首選的營運策略。只是想確認情況仍然如此嗎？

We've heard some, I guess, thoughts that maybe you guys are running a little bit fuller, and maybe just give us your thoughts there, and then just on the guide, assuming that you do hit the midpoint of your Q3 guide 190, usually, your Q4 is lower, so we should assume a little bit of a drop-off there maybe in Q4, correct me if I'm wrong, and then -- but that kind of puts you in the low 700s for the year. Is that kind of the run rate that you'll be exiting the year at? Is there any unusual items that we should add back when we think about '26? I'm sure there are on the barrel and other side, so if you could just help with your operating strategy and then maybe some of the unusual items that would help you bridge into a higher '26, that would be great. Thanks.

我想，我們聽到了一些想法，也許你們的業績會更加強勁，您可以告訴我們您的想法，然後根據指南，假設您確實達到了第三季度指南 190 的中點，通常情況下，第四季度的業績會更低，所以我們應該假設第四季度的業績可能會有所下降，如果我錯了，請糾正我，然後 - 但這可以讓您今年的業績達到 700 多點。這就是您今年底的運行率嗎？當我們考慮 26 時，是否有一些不尋常的項目是我們應該添加回去的？我確信桶的另一邊也有，所以如果你能幫助你制定操作策略，然後也許一些不尋常的物品可以幫助你進入更高的'26，那就太好了。謝謝。

Absolutely. Thank you, Arun. The focus on value is not changing, and our volume will be adjusted based on how we think we can get the most value from the assets that we have in the market that we're participating in, so there are going to be times where we're going to want to run our assets harder in certain product lines, and there are going to be times where we're going to pull back. That's the nature of our model. We're going to continue to do that as a leader in the industry, and nothing has changed in that respect.

絕對地。謝謝你，阿倫。對價值的關注不會改變，我們的交易量將根據我們如何從我們參與的市場中的資產中獲得最大價值進行調整，因此有時我們會在某些產品線上更加努力地運營我們的資產，有時我們也會撤退。這就是我們模型的本質。作為行業領導者，我們將繼續這樣做，在這方面沒有任何改變。

I think people have to remember, some of our markets are very local, very regional, some of them are global, and we will strategically and commercially play in those markets in the way that we think gives us the greatest advantage in terms of being able to extract the most value and generate the highest amount of cash for our shareholders. That is our focus, full stop.

我認為人們必須記住，我們的一些市場非常本地化、非常區域化，而有些市場則是全球性的，我們將以我們認為最有優勢的方式在這些市場上進行策略性和商業性運作，以便為我們的股東獲取最大價值和產生最多現金。這就是我們的重點，句點。

Now in terms of Q4, when we look out, yes, normally, Q4 is the weakest quarter for us in the year. We've got some other things that you saw in the slides that we sent out as part of the earnings call. We do have -- in the second half of the year, we've got higher turnaround costs as well. Especially for Q4 in Epoxy, you'll see that there's a pretty significant turnaround that we've got then, so Q4, we expect the pattern to be the same. Q3 is going to be similar to Q2 this year, as we put out in our guidance, and then Q4, we expect to see a weaker quarter, not any different than what we've seen in the past, so as I said and as Todd had mentioned, we're going to focus on pulling as much working capital down and generating cash in that timeframe, and I expect we will be able to do that because when we have turnarounds, we're able to pull inventory, and that's what we're going to be doing between now and the end of the year to generate that cash.

現在就第四季而言，當我們觀察時，是的，通常情況下，第四季是我們一年中最疲軟的一個季度。我們在收益電話會議上發出的幻燈片中也提到了其他一些內容。我們確實有——在下半年，我們的周轉成本也更高了。特別是在環氧樹脂的第四季度，你會看到我們已經取得了相當顯著的轉變，因此，我們預計第四季度的模式將是相同的。正如我們在指引中所述，今年第三季度將與第二季度類似，而第四季度，我們預計會是一個較為疲軟的季度，與過去的情況沒有什麼不同，所以正如我和托德提到的那樣，我們將專注於在這段時間內盡可能多地減少營運資本並產生現金，我預計我們能夠做到這一點，因為當我們出現轉機時，我們能夠從年底出現庫存，這就是我們現在產生轉機時，我們能夠從年底出現庫存，這就是我們能夠產生庫存，這就是我們現在可以產生的事情。

Pete Osterland, Truist Securities.

皮特‧奧斯特蘭 (Pete Osterland)，Truist 證券公司。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to ask one on the competitive dynamics in Epoxy, particularly in Europe. You have a competitor that recently announced they're shutting down some capacity in the region, and then antidumping duties in the EU were finalized earlier this week, so all else equal, how do you see competitive activity there impacting Olin? I mean, do you expect that these developments could meaningfully impact volumes or profitability for that business going forward?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答這些問題。我想問環氧樹脂的競爭動態，特別是在歐洲。您的競爭對手最近宣布將關閉該地區的部分產能，而歐盟的反傾銷稅也於本週早些時候最終確定，因此在其他條件相同的情況下，您認為那裡的競爭活動會對奧林產生什麼影響？我的意思是，您是否預期這些發展會對該業務未來的銷售或獲利能力產生重大影響？

Good morning, Pete. Listen, it's -- let me start by saying I was very discouraged by what we saw by the European Commission related to antidumping duties, particularly for South Korea. I watch what's happening in Europe, and I see them coming out and talking about this Chemicals Action Plan, and they've got lots of great things that they're talking about. It's too little, too late, I believe. They're moving very slowly.

早安，皮特。聽著，首先我要說的是，我對歐盟委員會關於反傾銷稅的舉措感到非常沮喪，特別是針對韓國。我關注著歐洲發生的事情，看到他們站出來談論化學品行動計劃，他們談論了很多很棒的事情。我認為，這太少，也太晚了。他們移動得非常緩慢。

They had an opportunity to protect a vital industry for a lot of what they want to do in terms of onshoring manufacturing. They're talking about developing their defense industry. Well, you need epoxy for all of that, and they chose not to put antidumping duties on one of the worst offenders for dumping in Europe, so that was very disappointing for me.

他們有機會保護一個至關重要的行業，以實現他們在製造業回流方面想要做的很多事情。他們正在討論發展國防工業。好吧，所有這些都需要環氧樹脂，但他們選擇不對歐洲傾銷最嚴重的國家之一徵收反傾銷稅，這讓我非常失望。

Now having said that, we are the last integrated supplier of epoxy resin in Europe, and that is something that we will need to take advantage of, and going back to what I said just a minute ago, around value over volume and what's our commercial strategy, we watch what's happening in the market, and when we see things happening in the market, we're going to adjust our model to get the highest value based on what we see.

話雖如此，我們是歐洲最後一家環氧樹脂綜合供應商，這是我們需要利用的優勢，回到我剛才所說的，圍繞價值重於數量以及我們的商業戰略，我們觀察市場動態，當我們看到市場動態時，我們將根據所見調整我們的模型以獲得最高價值。

We're the last integrated player. We see the local customers, who need critical supply and reliability of supply coming to us, so we're going to be focused on getting the volume that we should as the last integrated player, and that is going to help us generate more value as we go into the new year and start to realize this new agreement that we have for the supply situation at Stade.

我們是最後一個整合的玩家。我們看到需要關鍵供應和可靠供應的本地客戶正在向我們尋求幫助，因此，作為最後的綜合參與者，我們將專注於獲得應有的供應量，這將幫助我們在進入新的一年並開始實現我們在 Stade 供應情況方面的新協議時創造更多價值。

So all of that is going to be built into our commercial strategy, and we're going to have to respond accordingly and go get the share of the market that we believe we're entitled to under the conditions that we currently see, which are not great, but at the end of the day, we've got to be competitive.

所以所有這些都將融入我們的商業策略中，我們必須做出相應的反應，在目前不太好的情況下，爭取我們認為我們有權獲得的市場份額，但最終，我們必須具有競爭力。

Roger Spitz, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅傑‧斯皮茨。

Thank you very much. Can you please update us on your plan to test the US PVC market with VCM you tolled to PVC through Kem One? Thank you.

非常感謝。您能否向我們介紹一下您透過 Kem One 將 VCM 轉為 PVC 來測試美國 PVC 市場的計劃？謝謝。

Good morning, Roger. Thanks for the question. Yeah. So listen, I still continue to be very impressed with what our team has done from the beginning of the year until now, so we've got a handful of customers. We've got a handful of products that we're actively marketing today. We've got another of long list, frankly, of customers that we're also qualifying with, so I'm very encouraged with what I see. PVC is a weak market. We're not doing this because of the short-term market that we see. We're doing this because, really, this is getting us in front of customers, and understanding the landscape and learning more about the dynamics around PVC, and where we're going to go in the longer term, so we've got time. We've got until the end of 2030. My expectation is there's going to be a lot of things happen in the next 18 to 24 months before we've got to make any final decision on what we're going to do, but our goal is to make sure that we find the most capital-efficient way to continue to participate in the Vinyls market with our fully integrated VCM asset, create the highest value for our shareholders, and allocate the least amount of capital to be able to do that. That really is what we're trying to accomplish here, and so we're looking at all kinds of things. We're looking at commercial agreements. We're looking at potential joint ventures and partnerships, and all of those things are on the table, but it's still very early, but commercially, what I see our team doing, I've been very impressed with.

早安，羅傑。謝謝你的提問。是的。所以聽著，我仍然對我們團隊從今年年初到現在所做的事情印象深刻，所以我們已經擁有了少數客戶。我們目前有少量正在積極行銷的產品。坦白說，我們還有另一份長長的客戶名單，這些客戶也符合我們的資格，所以我對所看到的情況感到非常鼓舞。PVC市場疲軟。我們這樣做並不是因為我們看到的是短期市場。我們這樣做的原因是，這確實能讓我們走在客戶前面，了解市場情勢，並進一步了解 PVC 的動態，以及我們的長期發展方向，這樣我們就有時間了。我們的時間到 2030 年底。我預計，在我們最終決定做什麼之前，未來 18 到 24 個月內會發生很多事情，但我們的目標是確保找到最具資本效率的方式，繼續利用我們完全整合的 VCM 資產參與黑膠唱片市場，為我們的股東創造最高的價值，並分配最少的資本來實現這一目標。這確實是我們想要實現的目標，所以我們正在研究各種各樣的事情。我們正在研究商業協議。我們正在尋找潛在的合資企業和合作夥伴關係，所有這些事情都已擺在桌面上，但現在還為時過早，但從商業角度來看，我看到我們團隊所做的事情，給我留下了深刻的印象。

As there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing comments.

由於沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給肯·萊恩 (Ken Lane) 來做最後總結。

Well, good morning again to everyone. I just want to say thank you for joining us. We appreciate your interest in Olin, and we certainly look forward to the next call.

好的，再次向大家問好。我只想說謝謝你加入我們。感謝您對 Olin 的關注，我們非常期待下次通話。

We wish you all a great week. Be safe.

祝大家有個愉快的一周。注意安全。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。