Olin Corp (OLN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Olin Corporation's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Olin Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.

現在，我想將會議交給 Olin 投資者關係總監史蒂夫·基南 (Steve Keenan)。請繼續，史蒂夫。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's fourth quarter results.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，共同回顧奧林第四季的業績。

Before we begin, I'll remind you that this discussion, together with the associated slides and the question-and-answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note that these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's fourth quarter earnings press release.

在我們開始之前，我要提醒您，本次討論以及相關投影片和隨後的問答環節將包括有關未來表現的估計或預期的陳述。請注意，這些是前瞻性陳述，Olin 的結果可能與預測的結果有重大差異。我們最新的 10-K 表格中的「風險因素」部分以及昨天的第四季度收益新聞稿中無限制地描述了可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的一些因素。

A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under past events. Our earnings press release and other financial data, and information are available under press releases.

今天的記錄和幻燈片的副本將在我們網站的「過去事件」下的「投資者」部分中提供。我們的收益新聞稿和其他財務數據及資訊可在新聞稿中查閱。

With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO, and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with our prepared remarks, then we look forward to taking your questions. I'll note though that in order to give each analyst an opportunity, we will limit participants to one question with no follow-ups.

今天早上與我一起的還有奧林公司總裁兼首席執行官肯·萊恩 (Ken Lane) 和奧林公司首席財務官托德·斯萊特 (Todd Slater)。我們將首先發表準備好的發言，然後期待回答您的問題。不過，我要指出的是，為了給每位分析師一個機會，我們將限制參與者只提出一個問題，且不設後續問題。

I'll now turn the call over to Ken Lane and kick us off.

我現在將電話轉給 Ken Lane 並開始我們的演講。

Thanks, Steve, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝，史蒂夫，也謝謝大家今天的到來。

Starting with slide 3. I hope everyone was able to participate in our December Investor Day, whether in person or virtually. We laid out our value creation strategy that optimizes our core businesses by maintaining our focus on a value-first commercial approach and streamlining our assets to achieve greater than $250 million in cost reductions by 2028. We expect to achieve $20 million to $30 million of these savings in 2025. We also explained how we will grow our core by focusing on adjacent high-return options, all while being disciplined with our capital allocation framework. Olin has a great legacy, a leading set of businesses and assets and a bright future.

從投影片 3 開始。我希望每個人都能參加我們 12 月的投資者日，無論是親自參加還是以虛擬方式參加。我們制定了價值創造策略，透過保持對價值優先的商業方法的關注並精簡我們的資產來優化我們的核心業務，到 2028 年實現超過 2.5 億美元的成本削減。我們預計到 2025 年將節省 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元。我們也解釋瞭如何透過專注於相鄰的高回報選項來發展我們的核心，同時嚴格遵守我們的資本配置框架。奧林擁有偉大的傳統、領先的業務和資產以及光明的未來。

During our Investor Day, we guided the fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA at the low end of our range. However, as we closed the quarter, the downward pressure on our share price created an unexpected benefit to adjusted EBITDA and Hurricane Beryl costs came in lower than we expected. In Epoxy, seasonally lower demand, was a headwind during the fourth quarter. However, this was partially offset by continued price improvement. In Winchester, domestic and international military demand remained strong. However, near-term commercial headwinds persist as commercial retailers continue to trim inventories and consumer disposable income remains challenged.

在投資者日期間，我們預計第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 將處於預期範圍的低端。然而，當我們結束本季時，我們股價的下行壓力為調整後的 EBITDA 帶來了意外的好處，而颶風貝麗爾的成本低於我們的預期。對於環氧樹脂產業來說，由於季節性需求下降，第四季出現了不利因素。然而，這一增長被持續的價格上漲部分抵消。在溫徹斯特，國內和國際軍事需求依然強勁。然而，由於商業零售商繼續削減庫存且消費者可支配收入仍面臨挑戰，短期商業逆風依然存在。

Now, let's take a closer look at our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls results on slide 4. CAPV sales were up 9% sequentially on higher volume in the absence of Hurricane Beryl and improved pricing. Our CAPV results also benefited as final Hurricane Beryl spending came in approximately $8 million below expectation during the quarter. Although we are in the midst of a prolonged industry trough, Olin continues to realize higher value than experienced previously. We continue to be disciplined with our operating rates as we navigate this challenging environment.

現在，讓我們仔細看看幻燈片 4 上的氯鹼產品和乙烯基結果。由於沒有受到颶風貝麗爾的影響且價格上漲，CAPV 銷售額因銷量增加而環比增長 9%。由於本季度颶風貝裡爾的最終支出比預期低了約 800 萬美元，我們的 CAPV 業績也受益。儘管我們正處於長期的行業低谷，但奧林繼續實現比以前更高的價值。在應對這一充滿挑戰的環境中，我們將繼續嚴格控制營運率。

Global caustic soda remains tight as European variable costs rise, Asian demand shows improvement, and we are coming up on the turnaround season. Combined with seasonally lower merchant chlorine demand, we expect tightness to continue through the first quarter. At Investor Day, we announced our intention to enter the US PVC market via a tolling partnership. This has key strategic benefits, including upgrading a portion of our significant EDC capacity and unlocking incremental caustic soda volume.

由於歐洲變動成本上升、亞洲需求改善且轉折季節即將到來，全球燒鹼供應依然緊張。加上季節性商業氯需求下降，我們預計緊張局面將持續整個第一季。在投資者日，我們宣布了透過代加工合作夥伴關係進入美國 PVC 市場的意圖。這具有重要的戰略優勢，包括升級我們部分重要的 EDC 產能和釋放增量燒鹼產量。

Longer term, this will facilitate our strategic assessment of the PVC market and how we will deploy our industry-leading cost position to create higher value. We have received initial shipments and will realize first sales in the first quarter. Our Gulf Coast plants recently weathered winter storm Enzo with no material interruptions. However, many of our customers were not as fortunate which will present a slight headwind in the first quarter.

從長遠來看，這將有助於我們對 PVC 市場進行策略性評估，以及如何部署我們領先業界的成本地位來創造更高的價值。我們已經收到了首批貨物，並將在第一季實現首批銷售。我們的墨西哥灣沿岸工廠最近安然度過了冬季風暴恩佐，沒有出現重大中斷。然而，我們的許多客戶並沒有那麼幸運，這將為第一季帶來一點阻力。

Moving to slide 5. We'll take a look at our fourth quarter and full year Epoxy results. Olin's epoxy sales were roughly flat sequentially with improved resin pricing offset by seasonally weaker demand in both the US and Europe, seeing weaker demand from the building and construction, automotive and consumer electronics markets. Notably, during the third and fourth quarters, our team successfully completed the planned turnaround at our Stade, Germany facility. It was completed safely on time and on budget.

移至投影片 5。讓我們來看看第四季和全年的環氧樹脂業績。Olin 的環氧樹脂銷售與上一季基本持平，樹脂價格上漲被美國和歐洲季節性需求疲軟所抵消，建築、汽車和消費性電子市場的需求疲軟。值得注意的是，在第三季和第四季度，我們的團隊成功完成了德國施塔德工廠的計畫轉變。該項目按時、按預算安全完工。

Fourth quarter Epoxy adjusted EBITDA increased by more than 50% sequentially, largely in the absence of Hurricane Beryl impacts. During the first quarter, we expect improving demand as limited restocking begins and we see some seasonal improvement in our Formulated Solutions business. US hydrocarbon feedstock costs remain favorable versus rest of world. However, Asian epoxy producers facing higher feedstock and freight costs continue to increase the flow of unfairly subsidized epoxy resin into the US and Europe. We expect both a final US and provisional EU antidumping decision during the first half of the year.

第四季環氧樹脂調整後 EBITDA 環比增長超過 50％，這主要得益於沒有受到颶風 Beryl 的影響。在第一季度，隨著有限補貨的開始，我們預計需求將有所改善，並且我們的配方解決方案業務也出現了一些季節性改善。與世界其他地區相比，美國碳氫化合物原料成本仍保持優惠。然而，由於面臨原料和運費上漲的壓力，亞洲環氧樹脂生產商繼續向美國和歐洲輸出更多受到不公平補貼的環氧樹脂。我們預計美國和歐盟將在今年上半年做出最終的反傾銷裁決。

Slide 6 provides an update on our Winchester business. Fourth quarter Winchester sales were flat sequentially as the growth of lower margin domestic and international military demand and military project spending was offset by lower commercial ammunition sales. Commercial ammunition demand continues to be weak as retailers continue destocking.

幻燈片 6 提供了我們溫徹斯特業務的最新情況。第四季度溫徹斯特銷售額環比持平，因為利潤率較低的國內外軍事需求及軍事項目支出的成長被商業彈藥銷售額的下降所抵消。由於零售商持續去庫存，商業彈藥需求持續疲軟。

As a reminder, US ammunition retailers built significant inventories during the first half of 2024, ahead of looming propellant shortages and the US presidential election. Retailers continued reducing their inventories as consumer spending slowed, resulting in lower Winchester sales. We expect this trend to continue in the first half of 2025.

需要提醒的是，在迫在眉睫的推進劑短缺和美國總統大選之前，美國彈藥零售商在 2024 年上半年建立了大量庫存。由於消費者支出放緩，零售商繼續減少庫存，導致溫徹斯特的銷售下降。我們預計這一趨勢將在 2025 年上半年持續下去。

The weak near-term commercial demand has been partially offset by strong domestic and international military demand. Demand for White Flyer clay targets is robust and will soon benefit from the launch of our Eco flyer line, the next evolution of clay targets. After one year since closing, we're excited to see the continued exceedance of our expectations of this acquisition.

近期疲軟的商業需求已被強勁的國內和國際軍事需求部分抵消。White Flyer 黏土靶的需求十分旺盛，並將很快受益於我們推出的 Eco flyer 系列，這是黏土靶的新世代產品。經過一年的收購，我們很高興看到這項收購繼續超出我們的預期。

And now let's take a look at Winchester's announced acquisition of AMMO Inc.'s assets on slide 7. As we announced on January 21, Winchester entered into a definitive agreement with AMMO Inc., to acquire its small caliber ammunition manufacturing assets. This bolt-on acquisition should be immediately accretive to adjusted EBITDA, and which is directly in line with our acquisition strategy for Winchester that we discussed during our December Investor Day.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 7 上溫徹斯特宣布收購 AMMO Inc. 資產的情況。正如我們在 1 月 21 日宣布的那樣，溫徹斯特與 AMMO Inc. 達成了最終協議，收購其小口徑彈藥製造資產。此次附加收購應能立即增加調整後的 EBITDA，這也與我們在 12 月投資者日期間討論的溫徹斯特收購策略一致。

The acquisition includes a state-of-the-art production facility in Manitowoc, Wisconsin with a talented group of skilled employees, which will enable greater specialization and participation across high-margin specialty calibers. At the same time, Winchester's near full integration across the ammunition value chain will provide economy of scale and synergies across safety, manufacturing, and procurement. Our plants will immediately share best practices and rebalance our system to optimize the new assets.

此次收購包括位於威斯康辛州馬尼托沃克的一家最先進的生產設施，以及一群才華橫溢的技術熟練的員工，這將使高利潤專業口徑產品的專業化程度和參與度更高。同時，溫徹斯特幾乎全面融入彈藥價值鏈，將在安全、製造和採購方面產生規模經濟和協同效應。我們的工廠將立即分享最佳實踐並重新平衡我們的系統以優化新資產。

We anticipate a fully realized synergy benefit of $40 million within three years after closing. As a result, we expect to achieve a multiple of less than 2-times once the assets are fully integrated, which meets our criteria that any investment must offer better returns than buying back a share of Olin stock. We expect to close the transaction during the second quarter.

我們預計，交易完成後三年內將完全實現 4,000 萬美元的協同效益。因此，我們預計資產完全整合後本益比將低於 2 倍，這符合我們的標準，即任何投資都必須比回購一股 Olin 股票提供更好的回報。我們預計將在第二季完成交易。

Let me now turn the call over to Todd Slater to walk us through some financial highlights.

現在，讓我將電話轉給 Todd Slater，請他向我們介紹一些財務亮點。

Thanks, Ken. On slide 8, we've added a sequential quarterly adjusted EBITDA bridge. The comparison from third quarter to fourth quarter 2024 is highlighted by business. At a high level, we experienced an approximately $93 million overall sequential benefit from the lower Hurricane Beryl impact. Our chemical businesses experienced favorable pricing momentum but were offset by higher raw material costs and higher expenses, including penalties from unabsorbed fixed manufacturing costs related to our planned Freeport, Texas chlorinated organics plant maintenance turnaround.

謝謝，肯。在投影片 8 上，我們新增了按季度連續調整的 EBITDA 橋接器。業務重點突出了 2024 年第三季與第四季的比較。總體而言，由於颶風貝麗爾的影響較小，我們獲得了約 9,300 萬美元的整體連續收益。我們的化學業務經歷了有利的定價勢頭，但被原材料成本和費用的增加所抵消，包括與我們計劃的德克薩斯州自由港氯化有機工廠維護週轉相關的未吸收固定製造成本的罰款。

As expected, Winchester experienced lower commercial demand as retailers continued their inventory destocking efforts. At corporate, we benefited from lower stock-based compensation, primarily due to mark-to-market adjustments, partially offset by higher environmental remediation expenses and legal and legal-related costs.

正如預期的那樣，由於零售商繼續努力去庫存，溫徹斯特的商業需求下降。在公司方面，我們受益於較低的股票薪酬，這主要歸因於按市價調整，但部分被更高的環境補救費用以及法律及法律相關成本所抵消。

Now, let's turn to slide 9, quarterly and full year highlights. The continued challenging industry environment reinforces the importance of Olin's investment-grade balance sheet and our strong cash flow generation. We have minimal bond maturities in the next few years with opportunities to refinance our long-term debt such as the expansion and refinancing of our $500 million accounts receivable securitization facility completed during the fourth quarter from the previous $425 million facility.

現在，讓我們翻到第 9 張幻燈片，季度和全年亮點。持續充滿挑戰的產業環境進一步凸顯了 Olin 投資等級資產負債表和強勁現金流產生的重要性。未來幾年，我們的債券到期數量很少，並且有機會為我們的長期債務進行再融資，例如，我們在第四季度完成了 5 億美元應收帳款證券化融資的擴展和再融資，而之前的融資額為 4.25 億美元。

With this refinancing, we had approximately $63 million of off-balance sheet accounts receivable factoring, return to balance sheet debt as our factoring program was discontinued. Our strong financial foundation enables Olin to continue running our value-first commercial approach while maintaining our disciplined capital allocation priorities.

透過這次再融資，我們有大約 6300 萬美元的表外應收帳款保理，由於我們的保理計劃已停止，因此重新回到了資產負債表債務。我們強大的財務基礎使 Olin 能夠繼續運行我們的價值優先商業方針，同時保持我們嚴格的資本配置優先。

During 2024, Olin returned approximately 78% of operating cash flow to shareholders through quarterly dividends and share repurchases. As a result, we repurchased approximately 5% of our outstanding shares. Our net debt has increased by approximately $167 million from year-end 2023 while remaining approximately flat during the fourth quarter. After taking into consideration the impact of Hurricane Beryl, our year-end net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 2.7 times. We ended the year with $175.6 million of cash and approximately $1.2 billion of available liquidity.

2024年，奧林透過季度股利和股票回購向股東返還了約78%的經營現金流。因此，我們回購了約5％的流通股。我們的淨債務較 2023 年底增加了約 1.67 億美元，而在第四季則基本上保持持平。考慮到颶風貝麗爾的影響後，我們年底的淨負債與調整後的 EBITDA 比率約為 2.7 倍。截至年底，我們的現金餘額為 1.756 億美元，可用流動資金約為 12 億美元。

Let's take a moment and discuss our outlook for expected uses of cash generated in 2025 which is very consistent with our disciplined capital allocation approach we reviewed at our December Investor Day. First, cash taxes in 2025 should be higher than our normalized 25% to 30% rate. As our previously discussed international tax payment of approximately $80 million that's been deferred for the last two years, should be paid in the first half of 2025.

讓我們花點時間討論一下我們對 2025 年現金預期用途的展望，這與我們在 12 月投資者日審查的嚴謹的資本配置方法非常一致。首先，2025 年的現金稅應該高於我們標準化的 25% 至 30% 的稅率。正如我們之前討論過的，過去兩年推遲的約 8000 萬美元的國際稅款應在 2025 年上半年支付。

We expect our capital spending in 2025 to be in the range of $225 million to $250 million as we begin to spend capital toward our optimized the core asset strategy, which is designed to achieve greater than $250 million of structural cost reductions by 2028. We expect to continue our nearly 100-year history of uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments. We expect to fund our acquisition of the Ammunition Assets of AMMO Inc., from operating cash flows during 2025 which is consistent with our strategy to utilize excess cash flow to fund growth initiatives that offer a higher return than share repurchases. Any remaining excess cash flow after the preceeding capital allocation priorities would be available for share repurchases or incremental high-return growth initiatives.

我們預計 2025 年的資本支出將在 2.25 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間，因為我們開始將資本用於優化核心資產戰略，該戰略旨在到 2028 年實現超過 2.5 億美元的結構性成本削減。我們預計將延續近百年不間斷的季度股利支付歷史。我們預計將從 2025 年的營運現金流中為收購 AMMO Inc. 的彈藥資產提供資金，這符合我們利用過剩現金流為提供比股票回購更高回報的成長計畫提供資金的策略。前述資本配置優先事項之後的任何剩餘現金流都可以用於股票回購或增量高回報成長計畫。

We expect net debt to increase during the first part of 2025 due to a normal seasonality of working capital and the timing of cash requirements we just discussed. However, by year-end 2025, we are targeting net debt to be flat with year-end 2024 levels. Our teams continue to focus on cash generation, maintaining cost discipline and exploring additional cost savings opportunities. We remain committed to a prudent capital structure with a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings.

我們預計，由於營運資本的正常季節性以及我們剛剛討論過的現金需求的時間安排，淨債務將在 2025 年上半年增加。然而，到 2025 年底，我們的目標是淨債務與 2024 年底的水平持平。我們的團隊繼續專注於現金創造、保持成本紀律並探索額外的成本節約機會。我們仍致力於審慎的資本結構、強勁的資產負債表和投資等級信用評等。

Now, I'll hand the call back to you, Ken.

現在，我將把電話交還給你，肯。

Thanks, Todd. Let's turn to slide 10 and our outlook for the first quarter. In general, we don't see significant short-term improvement in the macro demand environment, and we will maintain our disciplined operating rates. As a result of our value first strategy, we expect our first quarter 2025 ECU values to be comparable with the fourth quarter. At the same time, and aligned with our optimizing the core strategy, we are staying focused on productivity, cost improvements and the variables within our control.

謝謝，托德。讓我們翻到第 10 頁，看看我們對第一季的展望。整體而言，我們認為宏觀需求環境短期內不會有明顯改善，我們將維持嚴格的開工率。由於我們的價值優先策略，我們預計 2025 年第一季的 ECU 價值將與第四季相當。同時，為了配合我們優化核心策略，我們將繼續專注於生產力、成本改善和我們控制範圍內的變數。

With near-term lower planned CAPV volumes and pricing headwinds in EDC, combined with continued customer destocking and lower consumer demand in the Winchester commercial business, we expect our first quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $150 million to $170 million. As we continue leading through this challenging market environment, we will stay focused on our value creation strategy and the capital allocation framework we laid out during our Investor Day in December. We are committed to maintaining our investment-grade balance sheet, ample liquidity, and superior cash flow generation. As all cycles do, this extended industrial trough will end, and we look forward to demonstrating our significant leverage into that recovery.

由於近期 EDC 計畫的 CAPV 產量下降和定價阻力，再加上客戶持續去庫存和溫徹斯特商業業務的消費者需求下降，我們預計 2025 年第一季調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1.5 億美元至 1.7 億美元之間。在我們繼續引領這一充滿挑戰的市場環境的同時，我們將繼續專注於我們的價值創造策略和我們在 12 月投資者日制定的資本配置框架。我們致力於維持投資等級的資產負債表、充足的流動性和卓越的現金流創造能力。正如所有周期一樣，這一延長的工業低谷將會結束，我們期待著展示我們在復甦中的重要影響力。

Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Ken, can you provide as much detail as possible about your volume outlook for Chlorovinyls in the first quarter. And also if you could comment whether you've lost any chlorine or other Chlor Alkali business in Q1 for the rest of the year on a contract basis where that step down in volume is more temporary and tactical, and we should expect volumes to rebound in coming quarters in '25.

Ken，您能否盡可能詳細地介紹一下第一季氯乙烯基產品的銷售前景？另外，如果您可以評論一下，您在今年第一季是否在合約基礎上損失了今年剩餘時間內的氯或其他氯鹼業務，這種銷量下降更多的是暫時的和策略性的，我們預計銷量將在 2025 年的未來幾個季度反彈。

Good morning Aleksey, appreciate joining us. So listen, on the volume side of things, Q4, we saw very good volume. Some of that was rebound volume, of course, from Hurricane Beryl. And then coming into the beginning of the year, obviously, we've got very low inventories as we were pulling inventory towards the end of the year, just working on working capital and as that rebound volume was very strong in Q4. What we see happening in the first quarter, and we do have a turnaround going on. So that's impacting volume because we don't have the inventory to offset some of that. We've also had some of our customers in the first quarter, while we weathered the winter storm Enzo very well with our assets, some of our customers did not. So that's going to have some impact on volumes. And then we're going to continue to be disciplined with our operating rates and meet the demand at the value that we like.

早安，阿列克謝，感謝加入我們。所以聽著，從銷售量來看，第四季度，我們看到了非常好的銷售量。當然，其中一部分是颶風貝麗爾 (Hurricane Beryl) 帶來的反彈量。然後進入年初，顯然，我們的庫存非常低，因為我們在年底拉動庫存，只利用營運資金，而且第四季度的反彈量非常強勁。我們看到第一季發生的情況確實正在好轉。所以這會影響銷量，因為我們沒有庫存來抵銷部分銷售。我們在第一季也有一些客戶，雖然我們憑藉著資產很好地抵禦了冬季風暴恩佐，但我們的一些客戶卻沒有。這會對於銷量產生一定的影響。然後，我們將繼續嚴格控制營運率，以我們期望的價值滿足需求。

So in the first quarter, we will see lower volumes, but most of that is related to things that are not, let's say, overall market in terms of demand, we do see good demand for caustic. We think caustic demand is going to continue to be strong, relatively strong relative to the rest of the portfolio. We see good demand in pulp and paper. In the export markets, we see good demand for alumina and aluminum still. So that's going to continue. And as long as we see continued weak demand on the vinyl side or the chlorine side of the chain, that's going to make caustic tighter. So we expect that to be supportive for pricing as well.

因此，在第一季度，我們將看到銷售量下降，但這主要與一些非整體市場需求的因素有關，我們確實看到對苛性鹼的需求良好。我們認為，腐蝕性需求將持續強勁，相對於投資組合中的其他部分而言相對強勁。我們看到紙漿和紙張的需求良好。在出口市場，我們仍然看到對氧化鋁和鋁的良好需求。這種情況將會持續下去。只要我們看到供應鏈中乙烯基或氯氣的需求持續疲軟，就會使苛性鹼供應更加緊張。因此我們預計這也會為定價提供支援。

But in general, there's a lot of uncertainty out there. We still expect to see strength in caustic, more weakness on the chlorine side of the ECU. But overall, like I said in my comments, ECU values should be relatively flat in the first quarter versus fourth quarter.

但整體來說，還存在著許多不確定性。我們仍預期 ECU 中腐蝕性方面將走強，而氯氣方面將走弱。但總體而言，正如我在評論中所說的那樣，第一季的 ECU 值應該與第四季度相對持平。

Mike Leithead, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的麥克萊特黑德。

Just two around guidance. First, on the fourth quarter, I think in mid-December, you said you'd be closer to 170 and then you ended up 20 million higher. So what happened in the last two weeks of the year. And then second, as we look through 2025, beyond the first quarter, I appreciate there's limited demand visibility. But are there Olin's specific earnings contributors we should think about as the year goes on to sort of build a bridge off of that 1Q?

只需兩個左右引導。首先，關於第四季度，我想在 12 月中旬，您說過銷售額會接近 1.7 億，但最終卻高出了 2000 萬。那麼今年最後兩週發生了什麼事。其次，展望 2025 年，第一季之後，我發現需求可見度有限。但是，隨著時間的推移，我們是否應該考慮奧林的具體獲利貢獻者，以便在第一季的基礎上建立橋樑？

Thank you, Mike. Good morning. Yes, so listen, things change pretty quickly there after the Investor Day. We didn't, of course, expect the benefit from the lower share price, which was not a good thing that was a $10 million tailwind for us. And then we did have a little bit of a surprise that Hurricane Beryl spend came in about $8 million less. So that makes up almost all of that $20 million. Otherwise, we would have been right in line with where we had expected.

謝謝你，麥克。早安.是的，聽著，投資人日之後情況變化得很快。當然，我們並沒有指望股價下跌能為我們帶來好處，這對我們來說不是什麼好事，但卻是 1,000 萬美元的順風。然後我們確實有點驚訝，颶風貝麗爾造成的損失減少了約 800 萬美元。所以這幾乎佔了 2000 萬美元的全部金額。否則，我們就剛好符合我們的預期了。

As I said before, I think that we don't want to fall in the trap that we have -- many people have in the industry over the past couple of years of giving some view that the second half of the year is going to be a lot better than the first half of the year. There's just still a lot of uncertainty and visibility is not very good. However, we do think that as we get into the back half of the year, we should see for Winchester, a lot of that destocking should be finished. Hopefully, we start to see the consumer come back and see a little more strength in consumer demand. But certainly, working down that inventory is taking a little bit longer than what our commercial customers had expected.

正如我之前所說，我認為我們不想陷入我們已經存在的陷阱——過去幾年，業內許多人都認為今年下半年將比上半年好得多。仍然存在很多不確定性，可見性也不太好。然而，我們確實認為，隨著進入下半年，我們應該看到溫徹斯特的大部分去庫存工作已經完成。希望我們能看到消費者的回暖，消費需求更強勁。但可以肯定的是，減少庫存所花的時間比我們的商業客戶預期的要長一些。

In Winchester, we're also going to see stronger military demand as we go through the year. Right now, the project at Lake City is running a little bit slower only because of the weather. As you know, it's been very cold that has slowed some of the progress around construction. That's going to pick up in the spring. So we should see Winchester improving in the back half of the year.

在溫徹斯特，隨著時間的推移，我們也將看到更強勁的軍事需求。目前，由於天氣原因，湖城的工程進展稍慢一些。如你所知，天氣非常寒冷，減緩了一些建築施工的進度。到春季這一情況將會回升。因此我們應該會看到溫徹斯特在今年下半年有所進步。

For the rest of the business, I think we're going to see a more normal seasonality. So as we get into Q2, in the warmer months, you're going to start to see the chlorine demand pick up as we see bleach demand increase, and that's going to be positive for Olin. That's more of a differential position for us. I think in Epoxy, you're going to continue to see some seasonal improvement with construction improving. Automotive still is fairly weak over in Europe. So hopefully, that is going to turn and start to improve.

對於其餘業務，我認為我們將看到更正常的季節性。因此，當我們進入第二季度時，在溫暖的月份裡，您將開始看到氯的需求增加，因為我們將看到漂白劑的需求增加，這對奧林來說是積極的。對我們來說，這是一個更加不同的地位。我認為，在環氧樹脂方面，隨著建築業的改善，您將繼續看到一些季節性的改善。歐洲的汽車產業仍然相當疲軟。所以希望這種情況會開始好轉。

Now, there is a little bit of a bogey out there around the antidumping duties. And we're not we're not going to build any of that into our forecast at the moment because we need to wait for those things to be finalized, but obviously, those could be a bit of a tailwind here for Epoxy.

目前，圍繞反傾銷稅存在一些令人擔憂的問題。目前我們不會把這些因素納入我們的預測中，因為我們需要等待這些因素最終確定，但顯然，這些因素可能會對 Epoxy 產生一點推動作用。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed），Alembic Global。

A quick question around supply. And I brought this up at the Analyst Day as well. I mean, look, one of the virtues, obviously, of the Chlor Alkali story historically had been the dearth of capacity additions. But it just seems that between certain TiO2 producers sort of announcing chlorine capacity additions, certain polyurethane producers out there sort of investing in infrastructure to potentially, sort of source chlorine from other vendors, there seems to be a creep in terms of supply. So could you sort of give us your near- and medium-term sort of outlook on maybe even numerically of what you think the supply picture looks like for Chlor Alkali?

關於供應的一個快速問題。我也在分析師日上提到了這一點。我的意思是，從歷史上看，氯鹼公司的優點之一顯然是產能增加的不足。但似乎由於某些 TiO2 生產商宣布增加氯氣產能，某些聚氨酯生產商正在投資基礎設施，可能從其他供應商購買氯氣，因此供應方面似乎出現了下滑。那麼您能否從數位角度提供我們近期和中期的氯鹼供應狀況展望？

Hi. Good morning, Hassan. So, look on supply/demand, we talked about this at the Investor Day. And our view is this, that you do see capacity coming out as well as being added in the future. And in fact, the capacity is coming out is coming out sooner than the capacity that's being added. So we don't think that that is anything more than a normal level of supply addition and capacity that's coming out with less competitive assets and less competitive regions. So we think net-net, it's going to be relatively balanced in the midterm. There's not anything there that we see that's concerning for our outlook and what we laid out at the Investor Day.

你好。早上好，哈桑。因此，看看供給/需求，我們在投資者日討論了這個問題。我們的觀點是，未來您確實會看到產能的增加和提升。事實上，產能釋放的速度比新增產能釋放的速度還要快。因此，我們認為這只不過是正常的供應增加和產能增加，導致資產和區域競爭力下降。因此，我們認為，從中期來看，整體情況將會相對平衡。我們沒有發現任何與我們的前景以及我們在投資者日所闡述的內容有關的事情。

But I will tell you, when we look at it, we do not see the economics to make an investment pencil where we are today, and we're very far away from that. There's a lot of risk in building these assets. So people are going to do what they want to do, but that doesn't mean that it's going to happen in the time that is stated and doesn't mean that it's going to happen at all necessarily. Let's see, but even if everything happens as it's been announced, we think net-net it's going to be fairly neutral on the supply side.

但我要告訴你，當我們審視這個問題時，我們看不到在今天的條件下進行投資的經濟可行性，而且我們距離這一目標還很遠。建立這些資產存在很大的風險。所以人們會做他們想做的事，但這並不意味著它會在規定的時間內發生，也不代表它一定會發生。讓我們看看，但即使一切都按照宣布的那樣發生，我們認為總體而言，供應方面還是相當中性的。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

So Ken, you've been CEO of Olin now for almost a year. When you look back on the year, and you compare your actions or your leadership direction to Scott Sutton, have there been any changes? Or do you see your tenure over the past year as a continuation of what Scott did?

肯，你擔任 Olin 執行長已經將近一年了。當您回顧這一年，並將您的行動或領導方向與斯科特·薩頓進行比較時，有什麼變化嗎？或者您認為您過去一年的任期是斯科特所做工作的延續？

Good morning, Jeff, thanks for the question. Listen, we laid out our vision for the company at the Investor Day. And as we look forward, what we see is that our leading position in both our CAPV business, the Epoxy business, and the Winchester business, we've got a lot of opportunity to do things that are well within our control to optimize that.

早安，傑夫，謝謝你的提問。聽著，我們在投資者日闡述了我們對公司的願景。展望未來，我們看到我們在 CAPV 業務、環氧樹脂業務和溫徹斯特業務中的領先地位，我們有很多機會去做我們能控制的事情來優化這一點。

We talked about reducing our cost by $250 million. And a lot of that is related to us cleaning up the asset footprint that we've got to remove some of the assets and optimize some of the sites that we've got to make them more efficient and to reduce our fixed and variable costs at those sites. Those are things that we're going to be able to control and deliver on, and I'm convinced that we will.

我們討論過減少 2.5 億美元的成本。其中許多與我們清理資產足跡有關，我們必須移除一些資產並優化一些站點，以提高其效率並降低這些站點的固定成本和可變成本。這些都是我們能夠控制和實現的事情，我相信我們能夠做到。

And then you look at the business model that we operate, we're going to continue to stay focused on being a leader in the industry. And what that means is that we're going to continue to be disciplined. We're going to continue to watch our operating rates and we're going to be focused on value. We don't see the need to get overly aggressive in terms of volume.

然後你看看我們營運的商業模式，我們將繼續專注於成為產業領導者。這意味著我們將繼續嚴守紀律。我們將繼續關注我們的營運率，並專注於價值。我們認為沒有必要在數量方面採取過於激進的做法。

I said it just a minute ago, we don't think that's where we are today. There are opportunities for reinvestment economics. We think that we're far away from that, but we believe that as long as we continue to be disciplined, we can hold value relatively flat versus where we were last year. And as the market comes back, we have the coiled spring. And we've got a lot of value ahead of us and as we see the trough -- as we come out of the trough, we're very well positioned to realize a tremendous amount of value as a company from that.

我剛才就說過，我們認為我們現在的情況還不至於如此。存在再投資經濟的機會。我們認為我們距離這個目標還很遠，但我們相信，只要我們繼續嚴守紀律，我們的價值就能保持與去年相比相對平穩的水平。隨著市場復甦，我們就有了螺旋彈簧。我們面前還有許多價值，當我們看到低谷時——當我們走出低谷時，我們完全有能力從中實現巨大的公司價值。

So we've got a bright future just around optimizing our core. And then you think about some of the options that we described around growing the core. So we're entering the PVC resin market here in the first quarter. That's a way for us to begin to test and learn more about that market. To be able to position the future of a very strong set of assets that we have to make Vinyls down at Freeport. And so that creates a great opportunity for us.

因此，我們只要優化核心，就會有一個光明的未來。然後，您會考慮我們描述的有關核心成長的一些選項。因此我們將在第一季進入 PVC 樹脂市場。這是我們開始測試並進一步了解該市場的一種方式。為了能夠定位一套非常強大的資產的未來，我們必須在自由港生產乙烯基。這為我們創造了一個絕佳的機會。

We talked about building on our bleach position, and we talked about building on our Winchester position and leveraging off of our chemical expertise into some very attractive markets that we think have got strong growth and strong returns for the long term. So that's our vision for the future is to stay focused on optimizing and growing, and I'm really excited about getting after that and continuing to deliver on that strategy.

我們討論瞭如何鞏固我們的漂白劑地位，如何鞏固我們的溫徹斯特地位，如何利用我們的化學專業知識進入一些非常有吸引力的市場，我們認為這些市場在長期內將實現強勁增長和豐厚回報。所以，我們對未來的願景是繼續專注於優化和發展，我非常高興能夠實現這個願景並繼續實施這項策略。

Bhavesh Lodaya, BMO Capital Markets.

Bhavesh Lodaya，BMO資本市場。

Good morning, Ken. Question on your Chlor Alkali strategy. So industry consultants are expecting higher operating rates sequentially in the first quarter. Now, expectations were that when the market improves when operating rates increase industry-wide, Olin gets a higher share of those volumes. It appears that you are not seeing that sort of a market or that sort of margins are actually restricting your participation because you expect lower volumes in the first quarter. So I guess the question is what needs to change for this trend to not continue as we go ahead into the year?

早安，肯。關於您的氯鹼策略的問題。因此行業顧問預計第一季的營運率將環比上升。現在，人們預期，當市場好轉、全行業營運率提高時，奧林將獲得更高的份額。看來您沒有看到這樣的市場，或者這樣的利潤率實際上限制了您的參與，因為您預計第一季的銷售會下降。所以我想問題是，我們需要做出哪些改變才能避免這種趨勢在進入新的一年時繼續下去？

Good morning, Bhavesh. Listen, I think in the short term, in the first quarter, if you go back to what I had said earlier, what we see in terms of the lower volumes in Q1 is more related to the bounce back that we saw in volumes in Q4, we don't see that repeating in Q1 and that bounce back was our bounce back from Hurricane Beryl. We also have got a turnaround occurring here in the first quarter. And we've got, like I said before, some of our customers were impacted from the winter freeze or winter storm Enzo.

早安，Bhavesh。聽著，我認為在短期內，在第一季度，如果回顧我之前所說的內容，我們看到第一季度的銷售量下降與我們在第四季度看到的銷售量反彈更相關，我們認為這種情況不會在第一季度重複，而且那次反彈是颶風貝麗爾之後的反彈。我們在第一季也出現了好轉。正如我之前所說，我們的一些客戶受到了冬季寒流或冬季風暴恩佐的影響。

So it's more related to transient things. I hate to use that word, but that's the way that we see it. We do continue to see strength in caustic in the caustic market, a little more challenging in the vinyls as construction returns, that's going to change. But right now, as you know, housing is still challenged. Hopefully, that's going to start to change in the coming months, but we don't have visibility of that just yet.

因此它與短暫的事物更相關。我不願意用這個詞，但我們就是這麼看待它的。我們確實繼續看到苛性鹼市場上苛性鹼的強勢，隨著建築業的復甦，乙烯基的挑戰性會更大一些，但這種情況將會改變。但正如你所知，目前住房問題仍面臨挑戰。希望這種情況能在未來幾個月內開始改變，但目前我們還無法預見。

But I don't see anything where we're differential in the marketplace but what we will do is continue to be disciplined that we're not going to push volume into weak markets just to get the volume. So we're going to stay focused on holding our position until we see the values that we like and then we'll start to operate harder. But right now, the focus is on being disciplined.

但我沒有看到我們在市場上有什麼差異，但我們將繼續嚴格自律，不會為了獲得銷售而將銷售推向疲軟的市場。因此，我們將繼續專注於保持我們的立場，直到我們看到我們喜歡的價值觀，然後我們才會開始更努力地運作。但現在的重點是紀律。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

花旗銀行的派崔克‧坎寧安 (Patrick Cunningham)。

Just on the recent AMMO acquisition, can you provide some more color on the $40 million in synergies that you expect to achieve through economies of scale and if there's anything from a commercial standpoint that takes into that number?

就最近的 AMMO 收購而言，您能否詳細介紹一下您預計透過規模經濟實現的 4,000 萬美元協同效應，以及從商業角度來看是否有任何因素可以考慮這一數字？

Yes, good morning Patrick. Listen, on those synergies, part of the synergies is SG&A, obviously, that's going to be a smaller part. The bigger part is going to be -- as we talked about at the Investor Day, Winchester is the largest small-caliber ammunition producers. So we're a very big buyer in the market for raw materials and different components for ammunition. That's going to be a big lever for us with these assets relative to the past. So that is going to be a very positive thing for us. Just right off the bat, those are things that are going to be able to be leveraged from day one.

是的，早上好，派崔克。聽著，就這些協同效應而言，協同效應的一部分是銷售、一般和行政費用，顯然，這將是較小的一部分。更重要的是——正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，溫徹斯特是最大的小口徑彈藥生產商。因此，我們是原料和彈藥各種零件市場的大買家。相對於過去而言，這對我們來說將是一個巨大的槓桿。所以這對我們來說是一件非常正面的事情。從一開始，這些都是能夠從第一天就被利用的東西。

The other part of this is more unique to Winchester and that we've got these already three sites that we have. And they're very large-scale sites that produce very large-scale volumes. And what we're going to get with this asset is the ability to produce niche high-margin caliber products that we currently have to make in these larger scale assets, which is less efficient. We have more changeovers. That's the sort of thing that we can move into this asset, we can make more of those calibers and we can make them more efficiently.

另一部分是溫徹斯特獨有的，我們已經擁有這三個站點。這些站點規模非常大，生產量也非常大。利用這項資產，我們將能夠生產利潤率較高的小眾產品，而目前我們必須在這些更大規模的資產中生產，因此效率較低。我們有更多的轉換。我們可以把這些東西轉移到這個資產中，我們可以生產更多這種口徑的武器，而且我們可以更有效率地生產它們。

So those three things are really going to drive that $40 million of synergies. So I have a very high level of confidence that we're going to get those and the procurement and the SG&A, we're going to get very quickly.

所以這三件事確實會推動 4,000 萬美元的綜效。因此，我非常有信心，我們很快就會獲得這些以及採購和銷售、一般及行政費用。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲費雪 (Duffy Fischer)。

Just a question around the potential change in trade flows from the tariffs and antidumping around Epoxy. What have you seen so far? Obviously, some of your customers are calling out higher epoxy prices already. But what do you think is going to happen if the ask that you guys have put forward happens, what do you think that will do to trade flows? And what do you think that will do from incremental pricing from here forward?

我只是想問一下關於環氧樹脂的關稅和反傾銷是否會導致貿易流量發生潛在的變化。到目前為止你看到了什麼？顯然，您的一些客戶已經在呼籲提高環氧樹脂的價格。但是，如果你們提出的要求實現，你們認為會發生什麼事？您認為從現在起這對增量定價有何影響？

Good morning, Duffy. Great question. Listen, it's a little bit different for Epoxy. Europe is a very large epoxy market. So once the duties go up there, that's going to be that's going to be a good thing for the European market and our position in Europe. It's not like some other markets that you may think about where there are other large sinks of volume.

早安，達菲。好問題。聽著，環氧樹脂有一點不同。歐洲是一個非常大的環氧樹脂市場。因此，一旦關稅上調，這對歐洲市場和我們在歐洲的地位來說將是一件好事。它不像您可能想到的其他一些市場，那裡有大量的交易量。

I do think that between Europe and the US once you put duties there, it is going to drive prices higher in the short term. And when you look at cost structure around Chinese producers, they were already dumping product and frankly, not making money. The situation is getting worse there. So if their costs continue to rise, you may actually just see the production slowdown or even shut down, not predicting anything is going to happen for sure. But certainly, the economics are not favorable for them to continue to operate where they are, and they've added a lot of capacity.

我確實認為，一旦歐洲和美國之間徵收關稅，短期內價格就會上漲。當你看看中國生產商的成本結構時，你會發現他們已經在傾銷產品，而且坦白說，沒有賺錢。那裡的情況正在惡化。因此，如果他們的成本繼續上升，你實際上可能只會看到生產放緩甚至停產，而無法預測會發生什麼。但可以肯定的是，經濟狀況不利於他們繼續在現有條件下運營，而且他們已經增加了許多產能。

So I don't know that it's as much about product just shifting around and flowing into different regions because of the largest consuming regions are really US and Europe, I think it's going to be more about rationalization over the midterm of capacity that's not competitive and you've already seen some of that in Asia. So you saw some capacity announced being shut down just in the past couple of weeks. So that's how the cycle works. The strong are going to survive and the weak aren't. I think it's going to be more of that story than it is going to be just things are going to move to different regions in Epoxy.

因此，我不知道這是否與產品的轉移和流入不同地區有關，因為最大的消費地區實際上是美國和歐洲，我認為這將更多地與中期產能的合理化有關，這些產能並不具有競爭力，你已經在亞洲看到了一些這種情況。因此，您會看到過去幾週宣布關閉一些產能。這就是循環的工作原理。強者可以生存，弱者則不能。我認為這將是這樣的故事，而不僅僅是事物將轉移到 Epoxy 的不同區域。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Most companies sort of have said that the outlook -- or the demand outlook for '25 doesn't look much better than '24. So if you think about -- if that does unfortunately unfold, how does your -- how do you improve EBITDA? And I know you don't give annual guidance, but how do you improve EBITDA this year, year-over-year? And when you think about the first quarter kind of low point, what sort of drives the improvement potentially sequentially into the later quarters?

大多數公司都表示，2025 年的前景或需求前景並不比2024 年好多少。所以如果你想想——如果不幸發生這種情況，你該如何提高 EBITDA？我知道您沒有提供年度指導，但您今年的 EBITDA 如何比去年同期進步？當您想到第一季的低潮時，什麼因素會推動後續季度的持續改善？

Mike, thanks for the question. Listen, we're going to focus, as you always have to do in the trough on what we can control. So we're going to focus on our costs, controlling our costs, making sure that our cash flow is strong. Financially, we are in very good shape as a company and a very deep and long trough that we've been in now for a while.

麥克，謝謝你的提問。聽著，我們要集中精力，就像你在低潮時總是要做的那樣，集中精力於我們能夠控制的事情。因此，我們將重點放在成本，控製成本，確保現金流強勁。從財務角度來看，我們公司的財務狀況非常好，只是我們現在處於一段很長且很深的低谷期。

So continuing to focus on the things that we can control, being disciplined around our operating rates, those are the things that are going to help us really hold the value that we see in our positions that we've got. But we do expect to see some improvement, as I had said earlier, as we go through the year, we do expect to see some improvement with the Winchester business. We're going to see some recovery as we get the seasonality with warmer temperatures coming and the bleach business is going to come back. We should see continued momentum with Epoxy pricing.

因此，繼續關注我們能夠控制的事情，嚴格控制我們的營運率，這些事情將幫助我們真正保持我們所擁有的部位的價值。但我們確實希望看到一些改善，正如我之前所說的，隨著這一年的發展，我們確實希望看到溫徹斯特業務有所改善。隨著氣溫回暖和季節性因素的到來，我們將看到一些復甦，漂白水業務也將復甦。我們應該會看到環氧樹脂價格持續上漲的勢頭。

Now, Epoxy is in a pretty deep hole so in terms of material improvements, I don't know that we're going to get there this year, but we certainly expect to see some improvement in Epoxy as we go through the year.

現在，環氧樹脂陷入了相當深的困境，因此在材料改進方面，我不知道我們今年是否會取得進展，但我們肯定希望在今年看到環氧樹脂有所改善。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

Yes. Just a little bit about your new tolling agreement to convert some EDC in the PVC, how would you compare the variable margins that you make on your current sales of EDC versus what you expect to get on this PVC post the tolling and shipping costs?

是的。請簡單介紹一下你們新的加工協議，也就是把部分 EDC 轉換成 PVC，你們如何比較目前 EDC 銷售的變動利潤與扣除加工和運輸成本後 PVC 的預期利潤？

And I'm curious, who are you going to be selling to? Are you developing new customers with the new commercial organization such as selling direct to pipe producers? Or are you selling to your existing, say, EDC customers who then would use their own commercial organization? Just curious on your outlook for this business.

我很好奇，您要賣給誰？您是否正在與新的商業組織一起開發新客戶，例如直接向管道生產商銷售？或者您是向現有的 EDC 客戶銷售產品，而這些客戶隨後會使用他們自己的商業組織？只是好奇您對這個業務的展望。

Good morning, Steve. Listen, this is a really important part of our strategy as we think longer term. This is not a short-term move for us. So the idea here is for us to get into selling PVC resin directly to customers and doing it ourselves. That's how we're going to learn who the customers are, learn more about creating higher value from our market position that we think we can build over time. And this is obviously when you look at the economics, over the mid- to long term, this is an upgrade for us of our EDC compared to selling EDC, so it is higher value for us.

早安，史蒂夫。聽著，從長遠考慮，這是我們策略中非常重要的一部分。對我們來說這不是一個短期舉措。因此，我們的想法是直接向客戶銷售 PVC 樹脂，並自行生產。這樣我們就能了解客戶是誰，並且更了解如何從我們認為可以隨著時間的推移而建立的市場地位中創造更高的價值。顯然，從中長期經濟角度來看，與銷售 EDC 相比，這對我們來說是 EDC 的升級，因此對我們來說價值更高。

As we go through developing the market, it's going to be smaller scale, so the economics are not going to be great. But relative to selling EDC, I can tell you it's not any worse. So this is going to be a benefit for us, not just in terms of moving volume. It's going to be benefiting us when we think about potentially 1 million tons of PVC resin that we could be looking at bringing into the market in the next few years. That really is why we're doing this.

隨著我們不斷開發市場，其規模將會越來越小，因此經濟效益不會很好。但相對於銷售 EDC，我可以告訴你，它並沒有什麼更糟的。所以這對我們來說是有益的，不僅僅是在移動量方面。如果我們考慮到未來幾年內我們可能會向市場投放 100 萬噸 PVC 樹脂，那麼這將為我們帶來好處。這確實是我們這樣做的原因。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

So I guess I wanted to get your thoughts, if I could, on maybe some preliminary thoughts on '25. So obviously, you're guiding to that 150 to 170 for Q1. If we look at '24 without Hurricane Beryl impacts here in the $1 billion or so range, assuming some synergies and growth in Winchester and maybe some recovery in the other segments. Should you be above that $1 billion range, maybe in the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion range for the full year? Or how should we think about what you see in the cards for '25 EBITDA?

所以，如果可以的話，我想聽聽你對『25』的一些初步想法。因此很明顯，您預期第一季的數字是 150 到 170。如果我們看一下24年，沒有颶風貝麗爾的影響，那麼這裡的損失在10億美元左右，假設溫徹斯特有一些協同效應和增長，其他部門可能有一些復甦。您是否應該高於 10 億美元的範圍，也許全年在 11 億到 12 億美元的範圍內？或者我們應該如何看待您對 25 年 EBITDA 的預測？

Yes, listen, so when we think about the first quarter and that guide that we've given, if you even just think about first quarter versus prior year, obviously, one of the big changes versus '24 is Winchester. So Winchester is significantly below where it was in the first quarter of last year.

是的，聽著，所以當我們考慮第一季和我們給出的指南時，如果你甚至只是想一下第一季度與去年同期相比，顯然，與 24 年相比的重大變化之一就是溫徹斯特。因此，溫徹斯特的銷售量明顯低於去年第一季的銷售量。

What I think is maybe being lost though is that we do see stable CAPV performance, which really is a very good thing to see. We see a firm business environment around CAPV, we saw that last year. Hurricane Beryl, yes, it was a headwind. But for CAPV, we see things continuing to be kind of where they were, and they will start to improve as we come out of the trough.

但我認為人們可能忽略的是，我們確實看到了穩定的 CAPV 性能，這確實是一件非常好的事情。我們看到 CAPV 周圍的商業環境十分穩健，這一點我們在去年就看到了。颶風貝麗爾，是的，它是一股逆風。但對於 CAPV 而言，我們看到情況將繼續保持原來的狀態，隨著我們走出低谷，情況將開始好轉。

We've talked about Epoxy. The biggest thing that's going to help us there is going to be rationalization of capacity and the growth coming back into the market. Of course, duties will help, but we're not going to -- we're not going to bank on duties being our savior here, but that is something that certainly will be a tailwind for us. But ultimately, I think you're going to see Winchester being the headwind in the first quarter and as I said before, we won't see that really recover until the back half of the year until the inventory that’s in the system gets worked out.

我們已經討論過環氧樹脂。對我們幫助最大的是產能合理化以及市場重回成長。當然，關稅會有所幫助，但是我們不會——我們不會指望關稅能成為我們的救星，但這對我們來說肯定會是一個順風。但最終，我認為你會看到溫徹斯特成為第一季的逆風，正如我之前所說，我們要到今年下半年才能看到真正的復甦，直到系統中的庫存得到解決。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Ken, just on natural gas, can you discuss your hedging strategies for this year? And how should we think about the impact from higher natural gas prices on your earnings for the year?

肯，僅就天然氣而言，您能討論一下今年的對沖策略嗎？我們該如何看待天然氣價格上漲對您今年的收入的影響？

Todd, do you want to take that one?

托德，你想拿那個嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Ken. Thanks for the question on natural gas. As you know, we do have a very disciplined approach on hedging our natural gas. We generally use a rolling four-quarter basis where we are heavily hedged a quarter out and the sliding scale the remaining quarters. As you think about Q1 versus Q4, directionally, we would think about our natural gas and power costs being relatively flattish sequentially in Q1 versus Q4 and probably not nearly as big a headwind as you might see at the spot market.

是的。謝謝，肯。感謝您提出天然氣的問題。如您所知，我們對天然氣對沖確實採取了非常嚴謹的方法。我們一般採用滾動的四個季度基礎，即對一個季度進行大量對沖，對剩餘的季度採用滑動比例計算。當您思考第一季與第四季時，從方向上看，我們會認為我們的天然氣和電力成本在第一季度與第四季度相比環比持平，並且可能不會像現貨市場那樣面臨太大的阻力。

Peter Osterland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Peter Osterland。

Within Winchester, is there an extensive pipeline of opportunities out there that you are considering or would consider for additional bolt-on M&A? At the current valuation, how do you weigh that option as a priority versus share repurchases?

在溫徹斯特，是否存在大量的機會供您正在考慮或願意考慮進行額外的附加併購？在目前的估值下，您如何權衡該選項與股票回購的優先性？

Good morning, Peter. Thank you for joining us, and welcome. Listen, we talked about this at the Investor Day. We are going to be focused on highly accretive, high-return bolt-on investments around Winchester. Obviously, we're not going to talk about anything specific at this point. But with the scale that we've got in the industry, there could be other options, but they will be small. We're not looking for something transformational at this point. But when you can do deals like the White Flyer deal that we did at the end of 2023, the deal that's proposed here for the AMMO Inc., assets and hopefully closing here in the second quarter.

早安，彼得。感謝您的加入，歡迎您。聽著，我們在投資者日談論過這個問題。我們將專注於溫徹斯特週邊的高價值、高回報的附加投資。顯然，我們現在還不想談論任何具體的事情。但以我們在產業中的規模，可能還有其他選擇，但這些選擇規模較小。我們目前還沒有尋求什麼改變。但是，當你能夠完​​成像我們在 2023 年底完成的 White Flyer 交易這樣的交易時，這裡針對 AMMO Inc. 資產提出的交易，希望能在第二季度完成。

As those things come up, if you can buy assets or businesses at a multiple like 2 times, obviously, we're going to look really hard at that. And we're going to watch that marketplace to see if other things come on. But at this point, I don't have any more specifics to share with you than that. We did talk a little bit though about the potential to backward integrate with Winchester into the Radford facility that would be bid here in the next couple of years. That's the only other thing that we've talked about publicly.

當這些事情出現時，如果你可以以兩倍的倍數購買資產或企業，顯然，我們會認真考慮這一點。我們將關注市場，觀察是否有其他事件發生。但目前，我還沒有更多具體資訊可以與大家分享。我們確實談論了一些將溫徹斯特向後整合到未來幾年將在這裡競標的拉德福德工廠的可能性。這是我們公開談論的唯一另一件事。

So we'll keep watching the space. And as we see things we will be disciplined and we're going to watch value relative to us buying back a share of Olin stock and looking at the share of Olin stock today, as you can tell, it's a very good value. So it's got to be a high hurdle.

因此我們會繼續關注此事。當我們看到事物時，我們會保持紀律，我們會專注於相對於我們回購奧林股票的價值，看看今天的奧林股票份額，正如你所看到的，它的價值非常好。因此這必定是一個很高的門檻。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），垂直研究。

Ken, I’d appreciate your updated thoughts on the dynamics in the Caustic soda export market coming out of the US Gulf Coast. I think you made a comment earlier on the call that you expect ECU values to trend flat sequentially into the first quarter. And I'm just wondering in that context, what you're thinking about directionally for spot export prices for Caustic soda? Do you think we're at bottom here? And do we need any sequential improvement over the next couple of months to achieve that flat level? Maybe you could just provide a little bit of context for us in that regard.

肯，我很想聽聽你對美國墨西哥灣沿岸燒鹼出口市場動態的最新看法。我記得您之前在電話會議上說過，您預計 ECU 值將在第一季持續持平。我只是想知道，在這種情況下，您對燒鹼現貨出口價格的方向有何看法？您認為我們現在處於最低谷嗎？我們是否需要在接下來的幾個月內持續改善才能達到這一平穩水平？也許您可以為我們提供一些這方面的背景資訊。

Good morning, Kevin, I appreciate the question. Listen, what I said earlier stands. We see firm demand. The other thing that we see is the Asian market thing is improving. So I do think that we've hit a bottom here in terms of the export pricing, which overall will lend to a floor for domestic pricing as well.

早安，凱文，我很感謝你的提問。聽著，我之前說的話仍然有效。我們看到強勁的需求。我們看到的另一件事是亞洲市場正在改善。因此，我確實認為，就出口價格而言，我們已經觸底，這總體上也將為國內價格奠定基礎。

So as we see the headwinds in the EDC market, we do see people having to cut back because they're not making any money on EDC at the price level that you see in the market today, that's going to add to the tightness in the caustic market. So that just gives me that confidence that we're going to see firmness in the ECU values out there, including in the export market.

因此，當我們看到 EDC 市場遇到阻力時，我們確實看到人們不得不削減開支，因為按照目前市場上的價格水平，他們無法從 EDC 上賺到任何錢，這將加劇鹼性市場的緊張局勢。所以這讓我有信心，我們將看到 ECU 價值在包括出口市場在內的市場上保持穩定。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Sometimes in the past, Olin has idled EDC because the margin was too low. And I don't think you're allowed to resell the ethylene. Will the new PVC strategy require you to keep EDC running even if margins on the rest of the merchant EDC market are unacceptable?

過去，Olin 有時會因為利潤太低而停產 EDC。我認為你不被允許轉售乙烯。新的 PVC 策略是否要求您保持 EDC 持續運行，即使其他商家 EDC 市場的利潤率不可接受？

Good morning, John. Listen, we're not going to treat EDC any differently than anything else. We're going to be optimizing the operating rate based on the value that we see or the demand that we see at the value that we want in the marketplace. So I don't see us being the industry leader in terms of cost positions. I don't see us being in a position where we would be idling the capacity. Obviously, we're not running at full rates, but we will operate it at the rate that we think creates the highest value for Olin.

早安，約翰。聽著，我們對待 EDC 不會與其他任何東西有任何不同。我們將根據我們看到的價值或我們看到的市場需求來優化營運率。因此，我並不認為我們在成本方面處於行業領先地位。我認為我們不處於閒置產能的情況。顯然，我們並沒有以全速運轉，但我們會以我們認為能為 Olin 創造最高價值的速度運轉。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

米奇 (Frank Mitsch)，鋤研究機構。

Todd, I was wondering if you could talk about the plans to tackle the $110 million that's due in June and when in the $80 million deferred international tax payment, so we're coming up on close to $200 million. What is your plan to attack? Will it be refinancing involved, et cetera?

托德，我想知道您是否可以談談解決 6 月份到期的 1.1 億美元款項的計劃，以及何時支付 8000 萬美元的延期國際稅款​​，所以我們將面臨近 2 億美元的款項。你的攻擊計畫是什麼？是否涉及再融資等等？

And then just a clarification, Ken. You indicated that the ECU value is expected to be flat in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter. So is that -- should we read that the PCI index is going to be essentially flat 1Q to 4Q?

然後只是澄清一下，肯。您表示，預計第一季的 ECU 價值將與第四季持平。那麼，我們是否應該認為 PCI 指數從第一季到第四季基本持平？

Okay. I'll start. Hi Frank. Yes, the cash taxes and the $80 million international tax payment that we've deferred for the last couple of years, we really are going to make it. It will be made in the first half of -- excuse me, 2025. And regarding the roughly $100 million of debt that comes due, we would expect just to pay that with our revolver, and it will be neutral from a debt perspective on our balance sheet.

好的。我先開始。你好，弗蘭克。是的，過去幾年我們推遲繳納的現金稅和 8000 萬美元的國際稅，我們確實會繳納的。它將在 2025 年上半年製造。至於到期的約 1 億美元債務，我們預計將使用循環信貸來償還，從債務角度來看，這對我們的資產負債表來說是中性的。

And Frank, with respect to your second question, the PCI, remember, is an amalgamation of a lot of things. It's not just the ECU. It includes derivatives as well. So you can't say that if ECU values are flat that the PCI is going to be flat.

法蘭克，關於你的第二個問題，請記住，PCI 是許多事物的融合。這不僅僅是 ECU。它還包括衍生品。因此，您不能說，如果 ECU 值是平的，那麼 PCI 也會是平的。

Frank, as we commented, we do see headwinds of pricing of EDC. So that would be a little bit of a negative on the PCI.

弗蘭克，正如我們所評論的，我們確實看到了 EDC 定價的阻力。所以這對 PCI 來說會有點負面影響。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Is there any update regarding your thinking on potential growth projects? I think at the Investor Day, you talked about some opportunities with the bleach plant in California, the Radford AMMO bid and the expansion of the Quebec CAPV plant. As you stand today, could you rank those projects? And what's most attractive and what would be least attractive?

您對潛在成長項目的想法有什麼更新嗎？我認為在投資者日上，您談到了加州漂白劑工廠、拉德福德 AMMO 競標以及魁北克 CAPV 工廠擴建的一些機會。就您目前的情況來看，您能對這些項目進行排序嗎？什麼最有吸引力，什麼又最沒吸引力？

Good morning, Matthew. Well, listen, I would say that, obviously, the Radford opportunity is one that's going to come in a couple of years, doesn't really require any capital site. So I'd say that that is a priority for us. We see that as a very good move for Olin, for Winchester and that is one that would be a priority for us.

早上好，馬修。好吧，聽著，我想說，顯然，拉德福德的機會將在幾年內到來，並不需要任何資本場地。所以我想說這是我們的首要任務。我們認為這對奧林和溫徹斯特來說是一個非常好的舉措，這也是我們的首要任務。

I think between the other two, it's going to come down really to economics and timing. So we are studying both of those very hard at the moment. But we will, given the current environment that we're in, we're going to stay true to what we talked around our capital allocation priorities, and we will have to phase those projects accordingly. But they're both attractive projects, and we want to keep them on the books and we'll make a decision at the right time based on our cash flow availability and when it meets the hurdle that we laid out in December at the Investor Day, if we can achieve those two things, which is meeting the commitments around capital allocation, and meeting the return criteria that we've laid out, and we'll move forward. But we're not in a position here today to really give you any clear view on those two projects in terms of priority. They both are attractive.

我認為，在這兩者之間，實際上還是取決於經濟和時機。所以我們目前正在努力研究這兩項內容。但考慮到我們目前所處的環境，我們將堅持我們在資本配置優先事項方面所討論的內容，並且我們將必須分階段實施這些項目。但它們都是很有吸引力的項目，我們希望將它們保留在賬簿上，我們會根據我們的現金流可用性，在適當的時間做出決定，當它達到我們在 12 月投資者日制定的障礙時，如果我們能夠實現這兩個目標，即滿足資本配置方面的承諾，並滿足我們制定的回報標準，我們就會繼續前進。但今天我們無法在這裡就這兩個項目的優先順序向您提供任何清晰的看法。他們都很有魅力。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

It's Chris Perrella on for Josh. As I think about the Winchester business over the course of the year, I know sequentially weaker in the first quarter here, you have higher input costs on propellant and the metal. When do you think you outpace those costs with price increases? And does the second half for Winchester, does that look like the first half of 2024? Or does it have to build up over a longer time frame?

克里斯佩雷拉 (Chris Perrella) 代替喬許 (Josh) 上場。當我回顧溫徹斯​​特全年的業務時，我知道第一季的業務環比疲軟，推進劑和金屬的投入成本更高。您認為什麼時候會漲價才能超過這些成本呢？溫徹斯特的下半年會像 2024 年上半年嗎？或是必須經過更長的時間才能形成？

Good morning, Chris. Obviously, we've talked a lot in the last year about the cost of propellant and metals and different materials going into ammunition as being a headwind and we've been working to move that through in pricing in the market. Obviously, that's difficult to do when our customers have built a tremendous amount of inventory, and they're working that off. So that's going to take a little bit more time to be able to work down and pass through into the marketplace.

早上好，克里斯。顯然，去年我們已經多次討論過推進劑、金屬和彈藥中不同材料的成本問題，認為這是一個阻力，我們一直在努力在市場定價中解決這個問題。顯然，當我們的客戶已經累積了大量庫存並正在努力消化這些庫存時，這一點很難做到。因此，這還需要一點時間才能發揮作用並進入市場。

So like I said before, I expect to see Winchester's performance improve in the back half of the year. So that's going to be a combination of improved demand and not just from our commercial customers buying more to refill their inventory, but we're hoping to see improved consumer demand out the door at our commercial customers.

所以就像我之前說的，我預計溫徹斯特的表現會在今年下半年有所改善。因此，這將是需求改善的結合，不僅僅是我們的商業客戶購買更多產品來補充庫存，而且我們希望看到商業客戶的消費需求改善。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Ken, I actually have a follow-up to your last point, which is do you have any data on retail sales versus your sell into retail? I'm just trying to see if you have a really good sense of what -- obviously, your customers are destocking, but if your customer customers has been destocking? And are there any bends in those trends that are giving you the confidence about the back half of the year?

肯，我實際上想跟進你的最後一點，即你是否有關於零售額與零售銷售量的數據？我只是想看看您是否真的清楚——顯然，您的客戶正在去庫存，但如果您的客戶客戶一直在去庫存呢？這些趨勢中是否存在一些轉折，讓您對今年下半年充滿信心？

Yes. Good morning, Vincent, thank you. And yes, listen, we do collect different data and it's from a number of different sources where we look at things that are reported, whether it's gun registrations, gun sales, and those sorts of things. But the point-of-sale data that we look at gives us an idea.

是的。早安，文森特，謝謝你。是的，聽著，我們確實收集不同的數據，這些數據來自不同的來源，我們查看報告的內容，無論是槍支登記、槍支銷售還是諸如此類的事情。但我們觀察到的銷售點數據給了我們一個想法。

But obviously, we are very close with our customers. And so we get some nice intelligence from them in terms of what their sales are looking like and we're able to estimate inventories. And so we factor all of that into our outlook, and that's why we see the challenging environment here around the inventory continuing into the first half of the year, not just the first quarter.

但顯然，我們與客戶的關係非常密切。因此，我們從他們那裡獲得了一些關於他們的銷售情況的好情報，並且我們能夠估算庫存。因此，我們將所有這些都考慮在我們的展望中，這就是為什麼我們看到庫存方面的嚴峻環境將持續到今年上半年，而不僅僅是第一季。

As there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for any closing remarks.

由於沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給肯·萊恩 (Ken Lane) 來做結束語。

Thank you, Michael. And listen, we appreciate all of you joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Olin, and we look forward to discussing our first quarter earnings with you here in a few months. We wish you all a great weekend. Stay safe and be healthy.

謝謝你，麥可。聽著，我們感謝你們所有人今天的加入我們。感謝您對 Olin 的關注，我們期待幾個月後與您討論我們的第一季財報。祝大家週末愉快。保持安全並健康。

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。