Olin Corp (OLN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Olin Corporation's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.

早安，歡迎參加 Olin Corporation 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給 Olin 投資者關係總監 Steve Keenan。請繼續，史蒂夫。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We truly appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's first-quarter results. Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides and the question-and-answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note that these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。我們非常感謝您今天加入我們，共同回顧奧林第一季的業績。請記住，今天的討論以及相關幻燈片和隨後的問答環節將包括有關未來表現的估計或預期的陳述。請注意，這些都是前瞻性陳述，Olin 的實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。

Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's first quarter earnings press release.

我們最新的 10-K 表格中的「風險因素」部分以及昨天的第一季財報新聞稿中無限制地描述了可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的一些因素。

A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under press releases.

今天的會議記錄和幻燈片的副本將在我們網站的「過去事件」下的「投資者」部分提供。我們的收益新聞稿及相關財務數據及資訊可於新聞稿中查閱。

With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO; and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, and we look forward to taking your questions. In order to give everyone an opportunity, we will limit participants to one question with no follow-ups. I'll now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane.

今天早上和我一起的還有 Olin 總裁兼執行長 Ken Lane；以及 Olin 的財務長 Todd Slater。我們將從一些準備好的演講開始，並期待回答您的問題。為了給每個人一個機會，我們將限制參與者只提出一個問題，並且不提供後續問題。現在我會把電話轉給 Olin 總裁兼執行長 Ken Lane。

Thanks, Steve, and thank you to everyone joining our call today. Let's start with a few first quarter highlights on slide 3. Looking across the global macro environment, economic uncertainty continues to dominate the narrative.

謝謝，史蒂夫，也感謝今天參加我們電話會議的所有人。讓我們從幻燈片 3 上的一些第一季的亮點開始。縱觀全球宏觀環境，經濟不確定性持續佔據主導地位。

Against this backdrop, everyone here at Olin continues to focus on the path we laid out during our Investor Day while closely managing the factors within our control and advancing our value creation strategy. As a result, we're increasing our cost reduction target to $50 million to $70 million related to productivity and structural cost improvements for full year 2025.

在此背景下，奧林的每個人都繼續專注於我們在投資者日期間制定的道路，同時密切管理我們可控制的因素並推進我們的價值創造策略。因此，我們將 2025 年全年與生產力和結構成本改進相關的成本削減目標提高到 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。

During the first quarter, our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business exceeded expectations as several planned and unplanned industry outages reduced first quarter chlorine and caustic soda supply. In response, we delayed the planned first quarter outage at our chlor alkali facility in Freeport, Texas, to meet customer needs, and we were pleased to help many customers during the tight market conditions.

第一季度，我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基業務超出預期，因為幾次計劃內和計劃外的行業停產減少了第一季的氯和燒鹼供應。作為回應，我們推遲了位於德克薩斯州弗里波特的氯鹼工廠計劃的第一季停產，以滿足客戶的需求，我們很高興在緊張的市場條件下為許多客戶提供幫助。

This is in line with our value-first commercial approach. And as we've consistently said, Olin is ready to raise operating rates to meet demand at fair values. We view this as a positive proof point for our chlor alkali loaded spring that will be more apparent as we emerge from this extended trough environment.

這符合我們價值優先的商業方針。正如我們一直所說的那樣，奧林準備提高營運率以滿足公平價值的需求。我們認為這是我們氯鹼負荷春季的一個積極證明點，當我們擺脫這種延長的低谷環境時，這一點將更加明顯。

During the first quarter, we also saw stable ECU values continue with positive pricing trends into the second quarter. In our Winchester division, domestic and international military ammunition volume continues to grow, while commercial sales continue to be weak as retailers destock, coupled with lower consumer sales.

在第一季度，我們也看到 ECU 價值保持穩定，並且在第二季度繼續呈現積極的價格趨勢。在我們的溫徹斯特分部，國內和國際軍用彈藥銷售持續成長，而商業銷售則持續疲軟，因為零售商去庫存，加上消費者銷售下降。

Also during the first quarter, Olin took advantage of historically narrow spreads and successfully refinanced our nearest debt tranche through a bond issue and bank refinancing. This pushed our nearest debt tower out to 2029 and positions us very well to weather the uncertain environment we see today. As we manage through this challenging economic environment, we're taking important steps to advance our strategy and strengthen our business.

此外，在第一季度，奧林利用歷史上較窄的利差，透過發行債券和銀行再融資成功地為我們最近的債務部分進行了再融資。這將我們最近的債務高峰推遲到 2029 年，並使我們能夠很好地度過當今不確定的環境。在我們應對這一充滿挑戰的經濟環境時，我們正在採取重要措施來推進我們的策略並加強我們的業務。

Slide 4 reviews several of our recent actions. Our “Optimize and Grow the Core” strategy introduced during our December Investor Day outlines our path forward, and we took several steps to advance that strategy in the first quarter, continuing our commitment to a value-first commercial approach, accelerating structural cost reductions and maintaining our disciplined capital allocation framework, all while not losing focus on the high-value growth opportunity laid out in December.

投影片 4 回顧了我們最近的幾項行動。我們在 12 月投資者日推出的「優化和發展核心」策略概述了我們的前進道路，我們在第一季度採取了多項措施推進該策略，繼續致力於價值優先的商業方法，加速結構性成本削減並保持嚴格的資本配置框架，同時不忽視 12 月提出的高價值增長機會。

As an example, we made solid progress to implement our Winchester growth strategy. I'm pleased to report that Winchester has been awarded a three-year contract extension to continue operating the Lake City GOCO ammunition facility through 2030.

例如，我們在實施溫徹斯特成長策略方面取得了紮實的進展。我很高興地報告，溫徹斯特已獲得為期三年的續約合同，將繼續運營萊克城 GOCO 彈藥設施至 2030 年。

Additionally, we closed the acquisition of AMMO Inc.'s ammunition assets. We've also been focused on enhancing our organizational accountability. We've aligned each employee's incentives with our corporate goals and strengthened our equity plans to increase engagement and retention.

此外，我們完成了對 AMMO Inc. 彈藥資產的收購。我們也一直致力於增強組織責任感。我們將每位員工的激勵措施與公司目標結合，並加強了股權計劃，以提高員工參與度和留任率。

Also, we consolidated our Chemicals commercial talent to our Houston office to facilitate greater cross collaboration and teamwork. And finally, we established Clayton, Missouri as our Winchester headquarters.

此外，我們將化學品商業人才集中到休士頓辦事處，以促進更大的跨部門協作和團隊合作。最後，我們將密蘇裡州克萊頓設立為溫徹斯特總部。

Now let's turn to slide 5 to review our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls results. First quarter CAPV EBITDA was up slightly with increased chlorine and caustic volumes as we continue to focus on value and push for price gains on each side of the ECU.

現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 5 來回顧我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基的結果。由於我們繼續專注於價值並推動 ECU 兩側的價格上漲，第一季 CAPV EBITDA 隨著氯和苛性鹼產量的增加而略有上升。

We expect caustic to remain the stronger side of the ECU and see positive pricing trends going into the second quarter. As mentioned earlier, we delayed the start of our planned Freeport, Texas turnaround to opportunistically capture spot demand created by planned and unplanned industry outages. During the first quarter, we reengaged with several chlorine customers seeking interim supply.

我們預計苛性鈉將繼續成為歐洲貨幣單位 (ECU) 中較強的一方，並且在第二季將呈現正面的價格趨勢。如前所述，我們推遲了計劃中的德州自由港週轉的開始時間，以便抓住計劃內和計劃外行業停工造成的現貨需求。第一季度，我們與幾家尋求臨時供應的氯客戶重新接洽。

The turnaround delay is reflected in our updated expense data on slide 17. This delay will result in $33 million higher sequential turnaround expense. Despite this headwind, we still expect to deliver sequentially similar chlor alkali adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter.

週轉延遲反映在我們第 17 張投影片上的更新費用數據。此次延遲將導致連續週轉費用增加 3,300 萬美元。儘管面臨這種不利因素，我們仍預計第二季氯鹼調整後的 EBITDA 將與上一季基本持平。

As we continue to navigate this unusually long trough, Olin’s ECU values and volumes have proven remarkably resilient across the past six quarters as we implement our disciplined value first commercial approach. PVC was another highlight in the quarter as we delivered our first shipments of Olin PVC during March, marking a key milestone for our PVC business development.

隨著我們繼續度過這個異常漫長的低谷，在我們實施嚴謹的價值優先商業方法的過程中，Olin 的 ECU 價值和銷售在過去六個季度中表現出了顯著的彈性。PVC 是本季的另一個亮點，我們於 3 月交付了第一批 Olin PVC，這標誌著我們 PVC 業務發展的一個重要里程碑。

In addition to our entry into the PVC market, we're adding value to every ton of EDC we toll with KemOne. As we discussed at our December Investor Day, we're exploring potential long term PVC strategic opportunities, including long term commercial arrangements, available production technologies and the evaluation of joint venture partners.

除了進入 PVC 市場之外，我們還在為與 KemOne 合作的每一噸 EDC 增加價值。正如我們在 12 月投資者日所討論的那樣，我們正在探索潛在的長期 PVC 策略機會，包括長期商業安排、可用的生產技術和合資夥伴的評估。

With respect to current tariffs, we do not expect the direct impact on CAPV to be significant. Olin's export sales, mainly caustic soda and EDC are generally sold to low tariff countries. One potential positive effect may be to tighten US caustic supply as tariffs challenge the economics of Asian imports to the US West Coast and European imports to the US East Coast.

就目前關稅而言，我們預計對 CAPV 的直接影響不會很大。奧林的出口產品主要是燒鹼和EDC，一般銷往低關稅國家。由於關稅對亞洲產品進口至美國西海岸以及歐洲產品進口至美國東海岸的經濟構成挑戰，一個潛在的正面影響可能是收緊美國的苛性鹼供應。

Now let's turn to slide 6 for a brief look at our Epoxy results. First quarter Epoxy sales improved sequentially, reflecting an increase in both resin prices and volumes. However, the margin benefits of improved pricing were more than offset by higher costs.

現在讓我們翻到第 6 張投影片來簡單看一下我們的環氧樹脂結果。第一季環氧樹脂銷售額季增，反映出樹脂價格和銷量的雙雙成長。然而，定價改善帶來的利潤收益被成本上升所抵銷。

Last month, the US Commerce Department issued their final epoxy antidumping vision. Olin was encouraged that the antidumping duty percentages for selected countries were raised beyond the preliminary determination. However, we remain concerned that the Commerce Department lowered the duty percentages for certain countries, in particular, South Korea.

上個月，美國商務部發布了最終的環氧樹脂反傾​​銷判決。奧林對部分國家反傾銷稅稅率在初步裁定的基礎上有所提高感到鼓舞。然而，我們仍然擔心商務部降低某些國家（特別是韓國）的關稅稅率。

The European Union announced their provisional epoxy resin anti-dumping duties during the first quarter and expects to conclude the investigation by issuing definitive measures during the third quarter 2025. Today, South Korea, the largest importer of epoxy resins to the European Union, unfortunately, remains exempt.

歐盟於第一季宣布對環氧樹脂徵收臨時反傾銷稅，預計2025年第三季發布最終措施結束調查。如今，作為歐盟最大的環氧樹脂進口國，韓國卻不幸地仍然沒有享受到這項優惠。

Bulk epoxy resins subject to antidumping duties, represent less than 25% of our overall Epoxy division sales. Current anti-dumping duties provide minimal upside value. We will continue to advocate for fair trade practices here and in Europe, pursuing every available avenue.

受反傾銷稅約束的大宗環氧樹脂銷售額占我們環氧樹脂部門總銷售額的不到 25%。目前的反傾銷稅帶來的上行價值微乎其微。我們將繼續倡導我們這裡和歐洲的公平貿易行為，尋求一切可行的途徑。

Looking ahead, building and construction, automotive and consumer electronics demand remained weak in the US and Europe. We are seeing mild seasonal demand improvement, but nothing we would consider as demand recovery. Second quarter Epoxy results will include a planned Stade, Germany turnaround estimated to present a $10 million sequential headwind. As a result, Epoxy earnings are expected to remain negative.

展望未來，美國和歐洲的建築、汽車和消費性電子產品需求仍然疲軟。我們看到季節性需求正在溫和改善，但我們認為這不是需求復甦。第二季的 Epoxy 業績將包括計劃中的德國施塔德 (Stade) 扭虧為盈，預計將帶來 1000 萬美元的連續不利因素。因此，預計環氧樹脂的收益仍將為負。

Slide 7 provides an update on our Winchester business. Winchester domestic and international military sales continue to grow as anticipated. Military project spending accelerated through the first quarter and is expected to continue gaining momentum throughout 2025. Commercial ammunition demand continues to be weak. We're seeing mid-single-digit pullback across sporting goods, hunting and gun sales.

幻燈片 7 提供了我們溫徹斯特業務的最新情況。溫徹斯特國內和國際軍事銷售繼續如預期增長。軍事項目支出在第一季加速成長，預計在 2025 年將繼續保持成長動能。商業彈藥需求持續疲軟。我們看到運動用品、狩獵和槍枝銷售出現中等個位數的下滑。

However, commercial ammunition sales have declined more than the sporting goods category. Ammunition retailers are destocking in parallel with consumers. You may recall that ammunition retailers built very high inventories during the first half of last year and in advance of expected propellant shortages and the presidential election.

然而，商業彈藥的銷售額比運動用品類別的銷售額下降得更厲害。彈藥零售商正在與消費者同步減少庫存。您可能還記得，彈藥零售商在去年上半年以及預期的推進劑短缺和總統大選之前積累了非常高的庫存。

Lower out-the-door retail sales have made destocking a lengthier process, which will likely stretch into the second half of 2025. Winchester cost for metals are rising due to tariffs and tight supply. Propellants also continue to present a cost headwind.

戶外零售額的下降使得去庫存化成為一個更長的過程，這可能會持續到 2025 年下半年。由於關稅和供應緊張，溫徹斯特金屬成本正在上漲。推進劑也持續面臨成本方面的阻力。

Although Winchester buys most metals locally, we still realize tariff-related price inflation on the domestic price of steel, aluminum and copper. At the same time, tariffs may also provide a tailwind for Winchester as ammunition imports will now carry at least a 10% penalty. And in order to reduce US trade imbalances, country-level tariff negotiations are promoting the increase of defense-related US exports, including small-caliber ammunition.

儘管溫徹斯特在當地購買大部分金屬，但我們仍然意識到關稅導致的鋼鐵、鋁和銅的國內價格上漲。同時，關稅也可能為溫徹斯特帶來利好，因為彈藥進口現在將面臨至少 10% 的關稅懲罰。而為了減少美國的貿易不平衡，國家層級的關稅談判正在推動美國國防相關的出口增加，其中包括小口徑彈藥。

Now turning to slide 8. This past month, we were pleased to close on the acquisition of AMMO Inc.'s manufacturing assets. Winchester's timing for the purchase of this state-of-the-art ammunition production facility was ideal.

現在翻到幻燈片 8。上個月，我們很高興完成對 AMMO Inc. 製造資產的收購。溫徹斯特購買這家最先進的彈藥生產設施的時機非常理想。

We were able to acquire a modern plant with a skilled workforce at a highly attractive adjusted purchase price of $56 million. We've begun integrating this new plant to optimize production across our assets in order to begin realizing our target synergies and extending our scale benefits to this new production site.

我們以極具吸引力的 5,600 萬美元調整後購買價格收購了一座擁有熟練勞動力的現代化工廠。我們已經開始整合這個新工廠，以優化我們資產的生產，從而開始實現我們的目標協同效應，並將我們的規模優勢擴展到這個新的生產基地。

As detailed during our December Investor Day, Winchester is an iconic brand and an excellent platform for growth. In addition to being immediately accretive, the shell case expertise we acquired will support a new area of growth for Winchester.

正如我們 12 月投資者日所詳述的那樣，溫徹斯特是一個標誌性品牌和一個絕佳的成長平台。除了立即產生增值效應之外，我們獲得的彈殼專業知識還將支持溫徹斯特新的成長領域。

The value creation potential of our Winchester platform is significant, and this acquisition absolutely exceeds our investment hurdles at less than approximately 1.5 times adjusted EBITDA, including synergies. Let me now turn the call over to Todd Slater to walk us through some financial highlights.

我們的溫徹斯特平台的價值創造潛力巨大，此次收購絕對超出了我們的投資門檻，包括協同效應在內，其價值不到調整後 EBITDA 的約 1.5 倍。現在，讓我將電話轉給托德·斯萊特 (Todd Slater)，讓他向我們介紹一些財務亮點。

Thanks, Ken. I'll start with slide 9 for a review of our sequential quarterly adjusted EBITDA bridge. The adjusted EBITDA comparison from fourth quarter 2024 to first quarter 2025 as highlighted here by business. Our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business benefited from our decision to delay the Freeport maintenance turnaround until the second quarter, resulting in higher sales than expected and lower turnaround costs.

謝謝，肯。我將從第 9 張投影片開始回顧我們連續季度調整後的 EBITDA 橋。業務重點突出了 2024 年第四季度與 2025 年第一季的調整後 EBITDA 比較。我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基業務受益於我們將自由港維護週轉時間推遲到第二季度的決定，導致銷售額高於預期，週轉成本降低。

As we anticipated, our chlor alkali results were affected by lower ethylene dichloride (EDC) pricing. Our Epoxy business continued to benefit from modest epoxy resin price improvements and saw lower than normal seasonal volume increases, but this favorability was more than offset by higher raw material and operating costs.

正如我們預期的那樣，我們的氯鹼業績受到二氯乙烷（EDC）價格下跌的影響。我們的環氧樹脂業務繼續受益於環氧樹脂價格的適度上漲，並且季節性銷售增幅低於正常水平，但這種有利因素被原材料和營運成本的上漲所抵消。

Winchester results were negatively impacted by lower commercial ammunition demand. In addition, tariff actions have raised the domestic cost of commodity metals, further pressuring Winchester commercial margins. These higher costs have proven difficult to pass along in the weak demand environment.

溫徹斯特的業績受到商業彈藥需求下降的負面影響。此外，關稅行動提高了國內大宗金屬的成本，進一步對溫徹斯特的商業利潤造成壓力。事實證明，在需求疲軟的環境下，這些較高的成本很難轉嫁。

Now let's turn to slide 10 for a look at our cash flow and liquidity. The increasing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment reinforces the importance of Olin's investment-grade balance sheet and strong cash flow generation.

現在讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片來看看我們的現金流和流動性。宏觀經濟環境的不確定性日益增加，強化了奧林投資等級資產負債表和強勁現金流產生的重要性。

During the first quarter, we further enhanced our financial resiliency as our team executed a well-timed bond issuance and debt refinancing, which provided a leverage-neutral extension to 2033 of our nearest bond maturities as well as an extension of our senior credit agreement from 2027 to 2030.

在第一季度，我們進一步增強了財務彈性，因為我們的團隊及時發行了債券並進行了債務再融資，將我們最近的債券到期日延長至 2033 年，並將我們的高級信貸協議從 2027 年延長至 2030 年。

We now have no material required debt repayments until mid-year 2029. We have the tools, discipline and flexibility needed to deliver resilient operating cash flows across the cycle. As we expected, first quarter 2025 operating cash flow was negatively impacted by our normal seasonal working capital growth.

目前，直到 2029 年中期，我們都沒有需要償還的重大債務。我們擁有在整個週期中實現有彈性的經營現金流所需的工具、紀律和靈活性。正如我們預期的那樣，2025 年第一季的營運現金流受到正常季節性營運資本成長的負面影響。

By year-end, we expect to liquidate our seasonal build in working capital and, in fact, expect working capital to be a source of cash flow for 2025. Excluding the timing effects of cash tax payments, including the payment of approximately $80 million for the deferred foreign tax payments that we previously discussed.

到年底，我們預計將清算季節性累積的營運資本，事實上，我們預期營運資本將成為 2025 年現金流的來源。不包括現金稅款支付的時間效應，包括我們之前討論過的約 8000 萬美元的遞延外國稅款支付。

To further enhance our 2025 cash flow, we've reduced our capital spending estimate by approximately $25 million to the range of $200 million to $220 million. Through additional productivity initiatives, we've increased our year-over-year cost savings expectations to $50 million to $70 million, which is more than double our previous outlook.

為了進一步提高我們 2025 年的現金流，我們將資本支出預估減少了約 2,500 萬美元，降至 2 億至 2.2 億美元之間。透過額外的生產力舉措，我們將年比成本節約預期提高到 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元，這是我們先前預期的兩倍多。

Consistent with what we discussed last quarter, we expect our net debt to increase during the early quarters of 2025, due to the normal seasonality of working capital, the ammunition acquisition funding and cash tax payments, but by year-end 2025, we expect net debt to be flat with year-end 2024. We remain committed to the disciplined capital allocation approach we shared during our most recent Investor Day. Our capital allocation priorities are clear: First and foremost, we maintain our investment-grade balance sheet.

與我們上個季度討論的內容一致，由於營運資金、彈藥採購資金和現金稅款的正常季節性，我們預計我們的淨債務將在 2025 年初增加，但到 2025 年底，我們預計淨債務將與 2024 年底持平。我們仍然致力於在最近的投資者日期間分享的嚴謹的資本配置方法。我們的資本配置重點很明確：首先，我們維持投資等級資產負債表。

Second, we fund our sustaining capital spending to maintain the safe and reliable operation of our assets. Third, we're committed to maintaining our quarterly dividend. And then fourth, any available free cash flow is returned to our shareholders via highly accretive growth opportunities such as the recent ammunition acquisition or share buybacks.

其次，我們為持續的資本支出提供資金，以維持資產的安全可靠運作。第三，我們致力於維持季度股利。第四，任何可用的自由現金流都會透過高度增值的成長機會（例如最近的彈藥收購或股票回購）返還給我們的股東。

Our teams continue to focus on cash generation, maintaining cost discipline and exploring additional cost savings opportunities. Our strong financial foundation enables Olin to continue executing our value-first commercial approach, while adhering to our capital allocation priorities and a prudent capital structure with a strong balance sheet and cash flow. Now I'll hand the call back to you, Ken.

我們的團隊繼續專注於現金創造、保持成本紀律並探索額外的成本節約機會。我們強大的財務基礎使 Olin 能夠繼續執行我們的價值優先商業方針，同時堅持我們的資本配置優先事項和審慎的資本結構，擁有強大的資產負債表和現金流。現在我把電話交還給你，肯。

Thanks, Todd. Let's turn to slide 11 and our outlook for the second quarter. Our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business continues to perform well. We're holding true to our disciplined value first commercial approach and the proof of our success lies in our ability to preserve value even through this deep and long economic trough.

謝謝，托德。讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片，看看我們對第二季的展望。我們的氯鹼產品和乙烯基業務繼續表現良好。我們堅持嚴謹的價值第一商業方法，我們成功的證據在於即使在這個漫長而深重的經濟低谷中，我們仍然能夠保持價值。

Caustic soda prices are rising, and we're seeing seasonal recovery in demand for bleach and caustic soda. Our Epoxy business is slowly improving but still faces significant challenges. We are making good progress with our self-help efforts as we continue to focus on cost control and growth in our more profitable formulated solution product lines but the global capacity overhang will continue to be a headwind for the foreseeable future.

燒鹼價格正在上漲，我們看到漂白劑和燒鹼需求的季節性復甦。我們的環氧樹脂業務正在緩慢改善，但仍面臨重大挑戰。我們在自助努力方面取得了良好進展，我們繼續專注於成本控制和利潤更高的配方解決方案產品線的成長，但全球產能過剩在可預見的未來仍將是一個阻力。

The commercial ammunition market is also challenged at the moment, but this is not structural. Consumers are cautious and have pulled back at the same time that retailers are trimming inventories and tariffs are inflating metal costs. This combination will continue to weigh on Winchester earnings in the second quarter.

目前商業彈藥市場也面臨挑戰，但這不是結構性的。在零售商削減庫存、關稅推高金屬成本的同時，消費者也變得謹慎並減少了採購。這種組合將繼續對溫徹斯特第二季度的獲利造成壓力。

However, our military and law enforcement business outlook remains robust. Against the backdrop of heightened macro uncertainty, we expect our second quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in a broader range of $170 million to $210 million, including an approximate $40 million sequential chemicals turnaround expense headwind.

然而，我們的軍事和執法業務前景依然強勁。在宏觀不確定性加劇的背景下，我們預計 2025 年第二季調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1.7 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間，其中包括約 4,000 萬美元的連續化學品週轉費用逆風。

We expect the overall direct impact of tariffs to be net neutral to Olin earnings. We say this as we generally source and sell where we produce. We can't speculate on potential indirect or secondary tariff impacts, including effects on demand.

我們預期關稅的整體直接影響對奧林的收益不會造成太大影響。我們這樣說是因為我們通常在生產地採購並銷售。我們無法推測潛在的間接或次要關稅影響，包括對需求的影響。

Finally, as we discussed today, we continue to navigate this challenging environment by managing the factors that are within our control and by executing our long-term strategy. To that end, I'm delighted to share that yesterday, retired US Army General, Edward M. Daley, was officially elected to Olin's Board.

最後，正如我們今天所討論的，我們將透過管理我們能夠控制的因素和執行我們的長期策略來繼續應對這一充滿挑戰的環境。為此，我很高興地告訴大家，昨天，美國退休陸軍將軍愛德華·戴利正式被選為奧林董事會成員。

General Daley's last assignment was at the 20th Commanding General to US Army Material Command, where he oversaw 190,000 people across more than 150 countries. General Daley provided logistics and material readiness across the US Department of Defense and the joint forces. As part of Olin's Board, General Daley will provide invaluable input and guidance related to our company strategy.

戴利將軍的最後一個職位是擔任美國陸軍物資司令部第 20 任指揮官，負責管理 150 多個國家的 19 萬名人員。戴利將軍為美國國防部和聯合部隊提供後勤和物資準備。作為奧林董事會的成員，戴利將軍將為我們的公司策略提供寶貴的意見和指導。

Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

（操作員指示）花旗銀行的 Patrick Cunningham。

Hi, good morning, Ken and Todd. Could you provide an update to sort of volume and price outlook for chlorovinyls sequentially? It seems like you've got a clear signal on further price support in the first quarter. How would you characterize the pricing across the major derivatives, particularly EDC as it's been the weakest one?

嗨，早安，肯和托德。您能否連續提供有關氯乙烯產量和價格前景的最新資訊？看起來您已經收到了有關第一季進一步價格支撐的明確訊號。您如何看待主要衍生性商品的定價，尤其是 EDC，因為它的定價最為疲軟？

Good morning, Patrick. Thanks for joining us. Yeah, so we are continuing to see weakness, particularly around the EDC pricing, but we don't see it getting significantly worse than where it is now. Price levels have already reached a point where even Asian producers are underwater, and that's going to keep a floor under EDC pricing.

早上好，派崔克。感謝您的加入。是的，所以我們繼續看到疲軟，特別是在 EDC 定價方面，但我們認為它不會比現在更糟。價格水準已經達到甚至亞洲生產商都無法承受的程度，這將為 EDC 定價奠定基礎。

So like we said in the prepared comments, we see positive pricing trends going into Q2, particularly around caustic. And so with the seasonal improvement that we're expecting there, combined with improvements that we see seasonally with bleach, we feel really positive going into the second quarter around price developments for chlor alkali.

因此，就像我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們看到第二季度的定價趨勢是積極的，特別是在腐蝕性方面。因此，隨著我們預期的季節性改善，加上我們看到的漂白劑季節性改善，我們對第二季氯鹼價格趨勢感到非常樂觀。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc.

阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫，KeyBanc。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. You mentioned adding value for every ton of tolled PVC. So can we assume that you require I guess, PVC range is cash positive? And how are you planning to ramp up your KemOne tolling volumes for the remainder of this year?

謝謝。大家早安。您提到了每噸收費 PVC 的增值。那我們可以假設您需要，我猜，PVC 範圍是現金正數嗎？您計劃如何在今年剩餘時間內提高 KemOne 的收費業務量？

Good morning, Aleksey. Thanks for the question. Yes, we're going to be ramping up through the end of the year. There's obviously uncertainty just around the economic environment but we've had very positive reception in the market with our sales team for PVC volumes.

早安，阿列克謝。謝謝你的提問。是的，我們將在今年底前加大力度。顯然，經濟環境存在不確定性，但我們的 PVC 銷售團隊在市場上獲得了非常正面的迴響。

It is cash positive to us for the PVC sales that we're tolling through KemOne. And I think that just shows the strength of the advantage that we've got in our cost structure, that we're going to continue to leverage longer term. We see this being a very positive growth opportunity for us. And I'm extremely proud of the team and what they've been able to do in a very short amount of time.

我們透過 KemOne 進行 PVC 收費銷售，這為我們帶來了現金收益。我認為這恰恰表明了我們在成本結構方面的優勢，我們將長期繼續利用這一優勢。我們認為這對我們而言是一個非常積極的成長機會。我為這個團隊以及他們在很短的時間內所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

We've assembled a small team. They've managed to get into the market and realize some sales and start building a portfolio with customers, and it's great to see. So we're really excited about things that are happening today, and we're setting ourselves up for a really positive future here.

我們已經組了一個小團隊。他們成功進入市場，實現了一定的銷售，並開始與客戶建立投資組合，這令人欣喜。因此，我們對今天發生的事情感到非常興奮，並且我們正在為這裡的真正積極的未來做好準備。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed），Alembic Global。

Morning, Ken and Todd. Question, it seems in Q1, you guys talked about it in your prepared remarks that you took advantage of some industry outages. So just trying to get a sense of historically, you guys have talked about your operating rates being in the 60s on the CAPV side of things, the industry running at maybe in the 80s. Just trying to get a sense of where your operating rates were in Q1, particularly as you took advantage of those industry outages?

早上好，肯和托德。問題，似乎在第一季度，你們在準備好的發言中談到了利用一些行業中斷的機會。所以只是想從歷史上了解一下，你們談到 CAPV 方面的營運率在 60 年代左右，而整個產業的營運率可能在 80 年代左右。只是想了解您第一季的營運率是多少，特別是當您利用了那些行業停擺的時候？

Good morning, Hassan. Yeah, I mean what you said is correct. We did take advantage of some of the increased spot demand that we saw in the first quarter and deferred that turnaround during Q1, which, as a result, did elevate our operating rates during the quarter versus what we thought.

早上好，哈桑。是的，我的意思是說你說的是正確的。我們確實利用了第一季現貨需求的成長，並推遲了第一季的轉變，因此，與我們的預期相比，本季的營運率確實有所提高。

You may remember back in the earnings call for fourth quarter, we had indicated volumes would be softer in Q1, that turned out not to be the case because we were able to run a little bit harder and deliver products that our customers needed. Frankly some customers that we've not supplied in a while, which was nice to see.

您可能還記得，在第四季度的收益電話會議上，我們曾表示第一季的銷售量會較弱，但事實並非如此，因為我們能夠更加努力地運作並提供客戶所需的產品。坦白說，我們已經有一段時間沒有為一些客戶提供服務了，很高興看到這一點。

But again, that was spot demand. So we're going to be opportunistic with that and continue to be disciplined. But what we are seeing as a result is in Q2, our operating rates are back down, as you would expect, because the turnaround has moved into Q2.

但那又是現貨需求。因此，我們將抓住機會，繼續嚴守紀律。但我們在第二季度看到的結果是，我們的營運率回落了，正如您所預料的，因為轉機已經進入第二季。

So it just reflects exactly what we've been saying is continuing to be disciplined and operating at rates that reflect the value in the market that we want. And we continue to see strength on the caustic side of ECU and we're going to balance that with the demand around chlorine at the value that we like.

因此，它恰恰反映了我們一直在說的，即繼續嚴格遵守紀律，並以反映我們想要的市場價值的利率運作。我們繼續看到 ECU 在腐蝕性方面表現強勁，我們將以我們喜歡的價值來平衡氯的需求。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Ken, on the same topic, do you expect to retain any of the spot business you realized / won in Q1 going forward?

謝謝。早安.肯，關於同一主題，您是否希望在未來保留您在第一季實現/贏得的任何現貨業務？

Thanks for the question, David. So listen, I think just by definition, it's spot volume. So it is opportunistic. And what I expect is we're going to continue to see some volatility as others have turnarounds either planned or unplanned.

謝謝你的提問，大衛。所以聽著，我認為根據定義，它就是現貨交易量。所以這是機會主義的。我預計，我們將繼續看到一些波動，因為其他人已經出現了計劃內或計劃外的轉變。

You're going to see some opportunities for us to sell a little bit more volume here and there. But I would not say that, that is going to be consistent because we've not contracted that volume, and that's my intention.

您會看到我們有機會在這裡或那裡增加銷售量。但我不會這麼說，這將是一致的，因為我們沒有收縮那個數量，這就是我的意圖。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask just on Winchester, kind of two things. First, can you kind of give us a bridge year-over-year between what's the EBITDA decline from lost volumes versus higher costs? And then with your guidance for the next quarter, there's some moving pieces, do you think EBITDA is higher or lower sequentially?

嗨，早安。我只想問關於溫徹斯特的兩件事。首先，您能否為我們介紹一下，由於銷售損失和成本上升導致的 EBITDA 年比下降情況？然後根據您對下一季的指導，有一些變動，您認為 EBITDA 會比上季上升還是下降？

Yeah, good morning. So I like we said in the prepared remarks, we expect to see a little bit of an improvement in Winchester for the second quarter. Some of that is, frankly, related to the White Flyer business that we acquired at the end of 2023.

是的，早安。因此，就像我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們預計溫徹斯特在第二季度會有所改善。坦白說，其中一些與我們在 2023 年底收購的 White Flyer 業務有關。

This is typically a time when we see some seasonal improvement for White Flyer. But we will see some improvement as well in the commercial demand, although more modest than what you would have seen last year.

這通常是我們可以看到 White Flyer 出現季節性改善的時候。但我們也將看到商業需求有所改善，儘管比去年的改善幅度要小。

And military is going to continue to improve in the second quarter. So the biggest driver for the decline year-over-year is going to be the commercial demand, but the headwinds around metals and propellant costs is a meaningful part of the decline.

軍事實力將在第二季繼續改善。因此，導致同比下降的最大驅動因素將是商業需求，但金屬和推進劑成本的阻力也是造成下降的一個重要因素。

At a high level, you should think of the year-over-year first quarter decline roughly two-thirds is volume and price and one-third is cost, higher commodity metals costs and propellant.

從高層次來看，你應該認為第一季年減約三分之二是數量和價格，三分之一是成本、商品金屬成本和推進劑成本上升。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

Ken, I'd like to follow up on two things you said. You referred to the capacity overhang in epoxy and you have this turnaround in Stade coming up. But is that a business that just warrants more shuttered capacity for you to drive a recovery?

肯，我想跟進一下你所說的兩件事。您提到了環氧樹脂的產能過剩，而施塔德的產能即將出現改善。但這項業務是否只需要關閉更多產能就能推動經濟復甦？

And the other comment you made was you refer to Winchester is an iconic brand. Could you take an approach to pushing price by calling it a surcharge or something to lead to higher pricing in Winchester in ammunition at the commercial level?

您提到的另一條評論是，溫徹斯特是一個標誌性品牌。您是否可以採取附加費或其他方式來推高價格，從而提高溫徹斯特彈藥在商業層面上的價格？

Good morning, Steve. First, I'll take your question on Epoxy. In epoxy, there is a significant amount of overhang, particularly in Asia, that has been built over the last several years. And frankly, that's continuing even this year.

早安，史蒂夫。首先，我來回答您關於 Epoxy 的問題。在環氧樹脂領域，特別是在亞洲，存在大量的過剩產能，這些產能是過去幾年形成的。坦白說，這種情況今年仍在繼續。

We have already reduced a significant amount of capacity and the capacity that we have remaining, we think is the most competitive, at least in the Western World. So there's not really room for us to take more capacity out. And then recall what we said at Investor Day its the reason that we've got Epoxy in the portfolio is it generates very good value based on the integration.

我們已經削減了大量的產能，我們認為剩餘的產能是最具競爭力的，至少在西方世界是如此。因此，我們實際上沒有空間來增加更多的產能。然後回想一下我們在投資者日所說的內容，我們將 Epoxy 納入投資組合的原因是它基於整合產生了非常好的價值。

The other thing that I want to remind everybody about is when you think about Europe, we do have some tailwinds that are going to be coming. We'll start to see the impact in the first quarter from this -- the new cost structure that we're going to have in place in Europe with the new agreements that are going to begin at the end of the year, but we won't see the impact of that until the beginning of Q1.

我還想提醒大家的是，當你想到歐洲時，我們確實會遇到一些順風。我們將在第一季開始看到其影響——我們將在歐洲實施新的成本結構，新協議將於今年年底開始實施，但我們要到第一季初才能看到其影響。

So between the integration value and some of the changes that we've got in the commercial agreements in Europe, we will start to see some improvement in the Epoxy business. Most likely, it's going to be in the first quarter, but it should be a meaningful improvement.

因此，在整合價值和我們在歐洲商業協議中得到的一些變化之間，我們將開始看到環氧樹脂業務的一些改善。最有可能的是，這將在第一季實現，但這應該是一個有意義的改善。

Now going back to Winchester, frankly, like we have said, the biggest issue there is the fact that there's so much inventory that remains and continues to come down, but not as fast as we had hoped just because sales out the door at the retailers is slower.

現在回到溫徹斯特，坦白說，就像我們所說的那樣，最大的問題是剩餘的庫存太多，而且還在繼續下降，但下降速度沒有我們希望的那麼快，因為零售商的銷售速度較慢。

So frankly, doing any more on pricing, I think it's going to be very hard to do in this environment. We just haven't reached an inflection point yet that would allow that sort of thing to happen. It will come. We're still very bullish on Winchester in the midterm, but we just have to work through this inventory build that really was unprecedented combined with the higher cost that we're seeing. It's sort of the perfect storm and it will pass and Winchester is going to continue to be a great growth platform for us.

所以坦白說，我認為在這種環境下，對定價採取進一步的行動將會非常困難。我們只是還沒有達到允許這種事情發生的轉捩點。它會來的。我們仍然非常看好溫徹斯特在中期的表現，但我們必須解決這個前所未有的庫存累積問題，以及我們所看到的更高的成本。這就像一場完美的風暴，它將過去的，溫徹斯特將繼續成為我們偉大的成長平台。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great, thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. Obviously, a very volatile challenging environment out there. We've seen some downstream weakness. I'm just kind of curious, I know caustic has held up a little bit better.

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。希望你們一切都好。顯然，外面的環境非常動盪且充滿挑戰。我們已經看到了下游的一些疲軟。我只是有點好奇，我知道腐蝕性會好一點。

So as you look out into Q2 and maybe even the summer months with the water treatment season coming up, do you anticipate some caustic softness to emerge because operating rates will likely grow seasonally speaking.

因此，當您展望第二季度甚至夏季水處理季節即將到來時，您是否預計會出現一些腐蝕性疲軟，因為營運率可能會按季節增長。

And again, maybe there's some downstream demand that's also going to back up. So maybe you can just kind of reiterate your views on caustic and maybe even PVC as you look out -- I know you don't participate directly in PVC, but maybe in EDC. Thanks.

而且，下游需求可能也會回升。因此，也許您可以重申您對腐蝕性甚至 PVC 的看法——我知道您沒有直接參與 PVC，但可能參與了 EDC。謝謝。

Yeah, good morning, Arun. Thank you. Listen, we don't -- when we think about the amount of chlorine that you're going to produce for the bleach market, it's relatively small to the caustic market. So that's not going to put any pressure on caustic.

是的，早上好，阿倫。謝謝。聽著，我們不知道——當我們考慮到為漂白劑市場生產的氯的數量時，它相對於苛性鹼市場來說是較小的。所以這不會對腐蝕性造成任何壓力。

Caustic market is so much larger, and we are seeing some seasonal improvement, continue to see strength, frankly, in pulp and paper, alumina as well. So those markets are large, much larger than the bleach. So when you think about the balance of chlorine that you're producing for a bleach position or water treatment versus the size of the caustic market, it doesn't move the needle. It's just -- it's not going to put any kind of pressure there.

苛性鹼市場規模如此之大，我們看到了一些季節性的改善，坦白說，紙漿和造紙以及氧化鋁市場也繼續保持強勁勢頭。所以這些市場很大，比漂白水的市場大很多。因此，當您考慮為漂白劑或水處理而生產的氯與腐蝕劑市場的規模之間的平衡時，它不會產生任何影響。只是——它不會在那裡施加任何壓力。

But, like we have said in the prepared remarks, we continue to see strength in caustic. We expect that to continue into the second quarter. We're very close with our customers, as you can imagine, during a time like this, you've got to be talking to them even more.

但是，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們繼續看到腐蝕性的力量。我們預計這種情況將持續到第二季​​。我們與客戶的關係非常密切，你可以想像，在這樣的時期，你必須與他們有更多的溝通。

And frankly, we're not hearing a lot of negativity. We're hearing uncertainty, but we're not hearing customers really be negative about their outlook. If anything, what we're hearing is, hey, we expect things to be stable and we'll see if things improve, but we're not hearing much in the way of negativity and decline.

坦白說，我們並沒有聽到太多負面消息。我們聽到了不確定性，但我們沒有聽到客戶對他們的前景真正持消極態度。如果有的話，我們聽到的是，嘿，我們預計事情會穩定，我們會看看事情是否會改善，但我們沒有聽到太多消極和衰退的消息。

So I take some positive away from that because, again, as much uncertainty as there is out there. It could sound more negative than what we're hearing. So I'm cautiously optimistic.

因此，我從中得出了一些積極結論，因為，同樣，也存在著許多不確定性。這聽起來可能比我們聽到的更負面。所以我持謹慎樂觀的態度。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），Vertical Research Partners。

Yes, thank you and good morning. Ken, I’d like to come back to Winchester, and I appreciate your thoughts on what you would consider to be the structural or normalized profitability of that business. Part of the reason I ask is if we look back at history, pre-pandemic, maybe EBITDA trended on either side of $100 million.

是的，謝謝你，早安。肯，我想回到溫徹斯特，我很欣賞你對該業務的結構性或正常化盈利能力的看法。我問這個問題的部分原因是，如果我們回顧歷史，在疫情大流行之前，EBITDA 可能趨勢在 1 億美元的左右。

And then what happened was it quadrupled for a couple of years. And then we've regressed back down. So when you think about where we are in the first quarter, where do you think we are relative to normalized for Winchester given the various headwinds that you articulated and how might it change if at all, through the AMMO deal?

然後發生的事情是，它在幾年內翻了兩番。然後我們又退步了。因此，當您思考我們在第一季的狀況時，考慮到您所述的各種不利因素，您認為我們相對於溫徹斯特的正常水平處於什麼位置，以及透過 AMMO 交易，情況可能發生怎樣的變化？

Good morning Kevin. That's a great question and listen, yes, we are definitely -- it's not a cyclical business, but we're in a trough for Winchester today for sure. One of the things, if you just look at the past few years that has really significantly improved the earnings capacity for Winchester, it's a combination of we've got the new Lake City business that's going to continue to deliver, and we've announced on the earnings call that we've had a three year extension, so we're going to now be operating that facility through 2030.

早安，凱文。這是一個很好的問題，聽著，是的，我們肯定——這不是一個週期性的業務，但今天溫徹斯特肯定正處於低谷。如果你回顧過去幾年，你會發現溫徹斯特的盈利能力確實顯著提高，這得益於我們新的萊克城業務的持續發展，而且我們在收益電話會議上宣布，我們的合約已經延長了三年，所以我們將一直運營該工廠到 2030 年。

We've made the acquisition of the White Flyer business, which was highly accretive. That was a very good acquisition for us in terms of return on that. We do have the AMMO Inc. acquisition that we've just made, and we've talked about the $40 million of synergies that we're going to realize over the next few years and that will be accretive to us this year as well.

我們收購了 White Flyer 業務，這帶來了極高的增值。從回報角度來看，這對我們來說是個非常好的收購。我們剛剛收購了 AMMO Inc.，並且我們已經談到了未來幾年將實現的 4000 萬美元的協同效應，這也將在今年為我們帶來增值。

So when you think about the last 12 months and you look at the earnings level there, there's a lot of growth that's still to come. So we remain very bullish on the future of Winchester's earnings. And last year, the impact from inflation and the squeeze on the consumer, combined with the higher cost and the higher inventory at our retail customers has got to flow through the system.

因此，當您回顧過去 12 個月並觀察當時的獲利水準時，您會發現未來還有很大的成長空間。因此，我們仍然對溫徹斯特未來的獲利非常樂觀。去年，通貨膨脹和消費緊縮的影響，加上零售客戶成本的增加和庫存的增加，都對整個系統產生了影響。

And once we get through this time, and the consumer is able to afford more and they start consuming more, we're very optimistic that we're going to see a strengthening in the Winchester business in the next 12 to 18 months.

一旦我們度過這段時間，消費者能夠負擔更多產品並開始消費更多產品，我們非常樂觀地認為，我們將在未來 12 到 18 個月內看到溫徹斯特業務的增強。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Thank you. Good morning. Ken, I want to follow up on Epoxy. It seems like, unfortunately, the South Korean lobbyists are very effective at their job, so we're not going to get the sort of benefits on antidumping and you mentioned earlier that you have new agreements in place in Europe, but that should start kicking in, in the first quarter of '26. So are we looking at a lost year here in Epoxy? I mean, what needs to happen in order to get Epoxy back into the black in 2025?

謝謝。早安.肯，我想跟進一下 Epoxy。不幸的是，韓國的說客似乎工作非常有效，所以我們不會在反傾銷方面得到那種好處，你之前提到過，歐洲已經達成了新的協議，但這應該會在 2026 年第一季開始生效。那麼，我們是否正在經歷 Epoxy 的失落之年？我的意思是，為了使 Epoxy 在 2025 年恢復盈利，需要做些什麼呢？

Good morning, Frank. I would not call it a lost year, but I do think that you're going to see Epoxy continue to struggle in 2025. We've got some tailwinds related to some of the antidumping duties on some of the countries that we've seen.

早安，弗蘭克。我不會稱其為失去的一年，但我確實認為你會看到 Epoxy 在 2025 年繼續掙扎。我們看到一些國家對某些產品徵收反傾銷稅，這對我們有利。

We have seen some positive impact. Pricing has improved, we've seen some improvement in volume where we've had customers that were not buying from us that have come back to us. So we've seen those improvements already flow through in the P&L.

我們已經看到了一些正面的影響。價格已經改善，我們看到銷量有所提高，以前不向我們購買產品的客戶又回來了。因此，我們已經看到這些改進已經體現在損益表中。

We did have some cost headwinds in the first quarter related to some unplanned outages and just some other things that were not related to the market, but I do think that this year is going to continue to be a struggle for the Epoxy business.

第一季我們確實遇到了一些成本阻力，這些阻力與一些計劃外的停機以及一些與市場無關的其他因素有關，但我確實認為今年環氧樹脂業務將繼續面臨困境。

However, I think by the time we get to the end of the year to the beginning of next year, we will start to see a positive result coming out of Epoxy. But don't forget, the integration value there is still in the mid to high double-digit millions that it creates for us being integrated with our chlor alkali assets.

然而，我認為到今年年底到明年年初，我們將會開始看到 Epoxy 取得正面的成果。但別忘了，整合後我們的氯鹼資產所創造的整合價值仍有數百萬到數千萬的中高值。

So it still is very positive for us to have that in the portfolio, and we're going to continue to manage our product portfolio more towards higher value formulated solutions, and we're already seeing growth in that business for us this year as well. So a lot of good things that we're doing that are within our control, but it is a challenging environment for sure.

因此，將其納入產品組合對我們來說仍然是非常積極的，我們將繼續管理我們的產品組合，並且更專注於更高價值的配方解決方案，而且我們今年也已經看到該業務的成長。因此，我們所做的許多好事都在我們的掌控之中，但這肯定是一個充滿挑戰的環境。

Peter Osterland, Truist.

彼得·奧斯特蘭（Peter Osterland），Truist。

Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask one the increased cost cutting target for the year. Just in the context of the $250 million of cost savings you're targeting for 2028, do you view the increase you just announced for 2025 as a pull forward that's included in that target? Or are these incremental? And in which segment or segments are the extra savings this year concentrated?

嘿，早安。我想問今年增加的成本削減目標是多少。僅在您為 2028 年設定的 2.5 億美元成本節約目標的背景下，您是否認為剛剛宣布的 2025 年增長是包含在該目標中的一項提前措施？還是這些是增量的？今年的額外節省集中在哪些領域？

Good morning, Peter. Some of that is we are working to accelerate some of our structural costs for sure, some of our structural savings. But we're also working very hard. We've got robust processes in place to find productivity opportunities as well during the year.

早安，彼得。其中之一是我們正在努力加快一些結構性成本和一些結構性節約。但我們也非常努力。我們已製定了強有力的流程來在全年尋找生產力機會。

And so all of those things are, like I have said in the prepared comments, these are things that we can control. And the team is very focused across all of our sites, across all of our functions at finding ways to reduce costs and be more efficient. So, it's a combination of accelerating some of our structural cost savings that we've talked about as well as increasing the productivity savings that we can realize in 2025.

所以所有這些事情，就像我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，都是我們可以控制的事情。我們的團隊非常專注於我們所有站點、所有職能部門尋找降低成本和提高效率的方法。因此，它是加速我們所討論的一些結構性成本節約以及提高我們在 2025 年可以實現的生產力節約的結合。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Thank you. Can I ask you, you've lowered -- it says you've lowered your annual capital spending by $25 million. Is that just for 2025 or is that a change you've made that has perpetual benefit? And I guess within that question, I just would also like to ask on the PVC strategy, what if any capital-light opportunities do you see there?

謝謝。我可以問一下，您已經降低了——據說您已經將年度資本支出降低了 2500 萬美元。這只是為了 2025 年，還是說這是您做出的具有永久效益的改變？我想在回答這個問題的同時，我也想問一下 PVC 策略，您是否看到了任何輕資本機會？

Good morning, Vincent. Thanks for the question. Yeah, so the reduction that we are announcing for our capital spend this year doesn't change what we talked about at the Investor Day, which is you can think about an average level of spend for us between now and 2028 of around $250 million.

早上好，文森。謝謝你的提問。是的，因此，我們宣布今年的資本支出削減並不會改變我們在投資者日所討論的內容，即從現在到 2028 年我們的平均支出水準約為 2.5 億美元。

That's still going to be the case. So what we're doing is we're trying to optimize spend on assessing and investigating some of those growth opportunities that we talked about at the Investor Day. We're going to just be a little bit more prudent with the spend there.

情況仍將如此。因此，我們正在做的是嘗試優化支出，以評估和調查我們在投資者日上談到的一些成長機會。我們將對那裡的支出更加謹慎。

We're continuing to make progress on investigating, looking at some of those growth options that we talked about around our water treatment, the bleach space, the PVC space as well. We want to keep looking at those things. We don't want to take our eye off of the future. So we're just trying to tighten our belt a little bit here this year. We're going to spend what we need to spend to be able to operate safely and reliably.

我們正在繼續調查並取得進展，研究我們在水處理、漂白劑領域、PVC領域討論過的一些成長選擇。我們希望繼續關注這些事情。我們不想忽視未來。因此，我們今年只是想稍微勒緊褲腰帶而已。我們將花費我們需要的錢來確保安全可靠地運作。

Related to PVC specifically, we're going to look at all options. We will continue to explore potential commercial agreements similar to what we have today to continue to have exposure to the PVC market, but what you see us doing with our business development activities through our tolling arrangements, is we're building the capability to be able to do something directly in PVC either through a joint venture with a new PVC asset in the next, say, 5.5 to 6 years or something similar to that.

具體來說，與 PVC 相關，我們將研究所有選項。我們將繼續探索類似於我們今天所擁有的潛在商業協議，以繼續接觸 PVC 市場，但您看到我們透過我們的來料加工安排開展業務開發活動，我們正在建立能夠直接在 PVC 中做一些事情的能力，或者在未來 5.5 到 6 年內透過與新的 PVC 資產建立合資企業或類似方式。

So there's more that we've got to do to study that. We're already talking with potential partners. We're talking with also potential technology providers. So those are the things that we've got to do to be ready, and I'm really happy with the progress that we're making.

因此我們還需要做更多的研究來解決這個問題。我們已經在與潛在合作夥伴洽談。我們也正在與潛在的技術提供者進行洽談。所以這些就是我們必須做好準備的事情，我對我們所取得的進展感到非常高興。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Thank you. Is the difference on the purchase price for AMMO related to an earnout? Or what is it that lowered the price there?

謝謝。AMMO 購買價格的差異是否與獲利有關？或者是什麼原因導致那裡的價格降低？

Good morning. Good morning, John. No, it's not related to an earnout. Frankly, the team did a very good job working through some things as we approached closing on that to find areas of value for Olin. It's also lower working capital when we closed the deal. But again, we did a tremendous job finding value in that deal, and we're going to be able to realize a tremendous return on that investment.

早安.早安，約翰。不，這與盈利無關。坦白說，當我們接近完成這項工作並找到對 Olin 有價值的領域時，團隊在處理一些事情方面做得非常好。當我們完成交易時，營運資金也較低。但是，我們再次做了大量工作來尋找這筆交易的價值，並且我們將能夠從這項投資中獲得巨大的回報。

And candidly, the lower working capital is working capital we didn't want anyway.

坦白說，較低的營運資本是我們不想要的營運資本。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Thank you and good morning, Ken and Todd. If we could circle back to caustic. So you mentioned some positive trends in pulp and aluminum. Your guidance includes higher caustic prices for the first quarter. I think US spot caustic has been moving up as well.

謝謝你們，早安，肯和托德。如果我們可以回到腐蝕性話題。所以您提到了紙漿和鋁的一些積極趨勢。您的指導包括第一季更高的苛性鹼價格。我認為美國現貨燒鹼價格也在上漲。

I would say the one red flag is the recent drops in Southeast Asia caustic prices. I think they've fallen by about $35 a ton over the past three weeks or so. What's driving that delta between the US and Asia market and do the falling values in Asia represent a concern?

我想說的一個危險訊號是東南亞苛性鈉價格近期的下跌。我認為過去三週左右每噸價格下跌了約 35 美元。是什麼導致了美國和亞洲市場之間的差距？亞洲價值的下降是否令人擔憂？

Good morning, Matthew. Listen, we're watching that very closely as well. I don't see that as a concern for us. When we look even here domestically, we're already seeing those price increases firm. We mentioned in our prepared remarks that there's a potential upside just related to the tariffs on caustic imports to the East and West Coast, from Europe and Asia, respectively.

早上好，馬修。聽著，我們也在密切關注這一點。我不認為這是我們關心的問題。即使從國內來看，我們也已經看到價格穩定上漲。我們在準備好的評論中提到，僅對來自歐洲和亞洲的東海岸和西海岸的腐蝕性進口產品徵收關稅就存在潛在的好處。

And frankly, we are seeing that get passed through in the market. So we still feel very good about the outlook for caustic in the markets where we mainly participate, which is going to be in the Americas. We see continued strength in Latin America as well. So we're remaining to be very constructive on our outlook for caustic in the second quarter.

坦白說，我們看到這種現像在市場上蔓延。因此，我們對於我們主要參與的市場（即美洲市場）的苛性鈉前景仍然非常樂觀。我們也看到拉丁美洲持續的強勁成長。因此，我們對第二季腐蝕性前景仍然持非常樂觀的態度。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Hey guys, good morning. Nice quarter. You had mentioned that caustic is the stronger side of the ECU. How do you -- what's sort of the thought about taking advantage of that. Or are you still really focused on sort of managing to the weaker side being chlorine where, I think longer term, your earnings power really can take off?

大家好，早安。不錯的季度。您曾提到腐蝕性是 ECU 中較強的一面。您如何—您有什麼想法可以利用這一點？或者您是否仍然真正專注於管理較弱的氯氣，我認為從長遠來看，您的盈利能力確實可以提升？

Good morning and thanks, Mike. I mean, listen, we are taking advantage of that, but we're going to do it in a disciplined way. So part of that is our EDC position. EDC is our flywheel, and we're going to continue to participate in the EDC market because we are the lowest cost producer of EDC.

早安，謝謝你，麥克。我的意思是，聽著，我們正在利用這一點，但我們會以一種有紀律的方式來做。其中一部分就是我們的 EDC 地位。EDC 是我們的飛輪，我們將繼續參與 EDC 市場，因為我們是成本最低的 EDC 生產商。

There are a number of players in Asia that have already backed off their production. And what that does is it allows us to maintain a very good value approach around our caustic position in the markets where we like to participate. I just mentioned that's primarily in the Americas.

亞洲的許多企業已經停止了生產。這樣做可以讓我們在自己喜歡參與的市場中保持一個非常好的價值取向。我剛才提到這主要發生在美洲。

So we are actually optimizing that today. But we're not going to start pushing chlorine or chlorine derivatives into the market just to make caustic. That's not going to be the strategy. We're going to stay focused on the ECU values that we're realizing and as long as we see values there that are attractive to us, then that's how we're going to set our operating rates.

所以我們今天實際上正在對此進行優化。但我們不會僅僅為了製造腐蝕劑而將氯或氯衍生物推向市場。這不是一個策略。我們將繼續關注我們正在實現的 ECU 價值，只要我們看到對我們有吸引力的價值，我們就會以此來設定我們的營運率。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. I think Dow wants to sell various assets in Europe. Would you be interested in looking at any of those at the appropriate value? Do their plans perhaps make it more difficult for you in your European operations? Or do they not really touch you?

非常感謝。我認為陶氏想要出售在歐洲的各種資產。您是否有興趣以適當的價值查看其中任何一個？他們的計劃是否會為您在歐洲的業務帶來更多困難？或者他們實際上並沒有觸動你？

And then secondly, can you talk a little bit about the wind turbine market in epoxies? How important is that for you? And what are the current demand trends?

其次，您能否談談環氧樹脂風力渦輪機市場？這對你來說有多重要？目前的需求趨勢如何？

Good morning, Jeff. So listen, I think just in terms of the Dow assets or M&A in general, we're not going to comment on anything in particular. What I'll do is just go back to what we said at our Investor Day. And the areas that we're going to look to grow and invest in are predominantly going to be in the areas of water treatment. So you think about our bleach business, we've talked about the PVC business.

早安，傑夫。所以聽著，我認為就道瓊斯資產或一般併購而言，我們不會對任何具體的事情發表評論。我要做的就是回顧我們在投資者日上所說的話。我們要尋求發展和投資的領域主要是水處理領域。所以你想想我們的漂白水業務，我們已經討論過 PVC 業務。

And those are the areas that really we're going to focus on. The good thing that we see related to Europe for us is that we do have the new cost structure that's going to be coming through with the new agreement that we've got in place that's going to start to show up in Q1. That's really meaningful for our Epoxy business. So that's one touch point that we've got with Dow and that is going to be very positive for us.

這些正是我們真正要關注的領域。我們看到的與歐洲相關的好消息是，我們確實有了新的成本結構，而這個結構將隨著我們已達成的新協議而實現，並將在第一季開始顯現。這對我們的環氧樹脂業務來說確實意義重大。這是我們與陶氏的一個接觸點，這對我們來說非常有利。

With respect to the wind business, that's an important business for us. We're a leader in the wind business for Epoxy. We are seeing -- we're still seeing growth year-over-year. So we're going to see this year probably somewhere low double-digit growth versus prior year.

就風能業務而言，這對我們來說是一項重要的業務。我們是環氧樹脂風能業務領域的領導者。我們看到——我們仍然看到同比增長。因此，我們可能會看到今年的成長率與去年相比略有下降，為兩位數。

And it fits very well with what we said around our growing in the formulated solutions area. We're a leader there. We're going to see growth there this year, and that's part of what's going to help our earnings continue to improve as we go through 2025.

這與我們在配方解決方案領域的發展非常吻合。我們是那裡的領導者。我們今年將會看到成長，這也是幫助我們的獲利在 2025 年繼續改善的部分原因。

As there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for any closing remarks.

由於沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給肯·萊恩 (Ken Lane) 做最後發言。

Thank you, Betsy. I just want to say thank you to everybody for joining us today. We are really optimistic about the future of Olin. We've laid out a great strategy. Our team is focused on the things that we can control, and we're going to continue to do that without taking our eye off the future. So, we wish you all a very safe weekend and look forward to speaking to you at the end of the second quarter.

謝謝你，貝琪。我只想對今天參加我們會議的各位表示感謝。我們對奧林的未來非常樂觀。我們制定了偉大的戰略。我們的團隊專注於我們能夠控制的事情，我們將繼續這樣做，同時著眼於未來。因此，我們祝大家週末平安，並期待在第二季末與大家交談。

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。