Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Norfolk Southern's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Luke Nichols, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Nichols, you may begin.

問候。歡迎來到 Norfolk Southern 的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興介紹投資者關係高級總監 Luke Nichols。謝謝你，尼科爾斯先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or future performance of Norfolk Southern Corporation, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results.

謝謝大家，早上好。請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將根據 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款作出某些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述與諾福克南方公司的未來事件或未來業績有關，受風險和不確定性，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full disclosure of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important. Our presentation slides are available at nscorp.com in the Investors section, along with a reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures.

請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告，以全面披露我們認為最重要的風險和不確定性。我們的演示幻燈片可在 nscorp.com 的“投資者”部分獲得，以及當今使用的任何非 GAAP 措施與可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬。

Turning to Slide 3. It's now my pleasure to introduce Norfolk Southern's President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan Shaw.

轉到幻燈片 3。現在我很高興介紹 Norfolk Southern 的總裁兼首席執行官 Alan Shaw。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our first quarter earnings call. I will begin with an update on East Palestine and our ongoing focus on safe operations. From the beginning, we have been guided by one principle. We are going to do whatever it takes to make it right for East Palestine and the surrounding areas. We're cleaning the site safely, thoroughly and with urgency. We're assisting families, supporting local businesses and non-profits and investing in long-term projects for the area's future prosperity.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的第一季度財報電話會議。我將首先介紹東巴勒斯坦的最新情況以及我們對安全運營的持續關注。從一開始，我們就遵循一個原則。我們將不惜一切代價使東巴勒斯坦和周邊地區的局勢恢復正常。我們正在安全、徹底和緊急地清理現場。我們正在幫助家庭，支持當地企業和非營利組織，並投資於該地區未來繁榮的長期項目。

I went to East Palestine in the immediate aftermath of the derailment and have returned almost every week to meet with members of the community and monitor our work.

脫軌事件發生後，我立即前往東巴勒斯坦，幾乎每週都會回來與社區成員會面並監督我們的工作。

I've been in churches, schools, meeting halls, businesses and living rooms, asking how Norfolk Southern can use our resources to help the community recover and thrive. I'm proud of our people and our progress. I'm also proud of the crew and the locomotive that night.

我去過教堂、學校、會議廳、企業和客廳，詢問 Norfolk Southern 如何利用我們的資源來幫助社區恢復和繁榮。我為我們的員工和我們的進步感到自豪。我也為那天晚上的機組人員和機車感到自豪。

According to the National Transportation Safety Board's preliminary report, they were operating the train properly and took the right actions after receiving the alarm, the wayside detectors worked, and there were no track defects. As the NTSB continues its work, we have already begun to take actions designed to further enhance safety such as installing additional safety sensors, accelerating the deployment of advanced early detection technologies and increasing safety training for first responders.

根據美國國家運輸安全委員會的初步報告，他們在接到警報後正確操作並採取了正確的行動，路邊探測器工作，沒有軌道缺陷。隨著 NTSB 繼續開展工作，我們已經開始採取旨在進一步提高安全性的行動，例如安裝額外的安全傳感器、加速部署先進的早期檢測技術以及增加對急救人員的安全培訓。

The firefighters and other emergency responders who ran to the scene that night in East Palestine have our deepest gratitude and respect. They are heroes. We also appreciate the leadership of local state and federal officials and agencies in response to these events, we share their goals of helping people affected by the derailment and finding evidence-based approaches to rail safety. We are a safe railroad.

對當晚在東巴勒斯坦趕到現場的消防員和其他緊急救援人員表示最深切的感謝和敬意。他們是英雄。我們也感謝地方州和聯邦官員和機構在應對這些事件中發揮的領導作用，我們與他們一樣，都希望幫助受脫軌影響的人們，並找到基於證據的鐵路安全方法。我們是一條安全的鐵路。

In 2022, Norfolk Southern had fewer derailments than any other year in the last 2 decades, and our rate of employee injuries was the lowest in a decade. We strive to do better. While events of the last few months have focused national attention on rail safety, the remits at Norfolk Southern in the first quarter declined from the same period last year, continuing a trend of improvement. We are going to learn from this accident to become an even safer company.

2022 年，Norfolk Southern 的出軌事故比過去 2 十年中的任何一年都少，我們的員工受傷率也是十年來最低的。我們努力做得更好。雖然過去幾個月發生的事件使全國關注鐵路安全，但諾福克南部鐵路公司第一季度的工作量較去年同期有所下降，繼續呈改善趨勢。我們將從這次事故中吸取教訓，成為一家更加安全的公司。

I have been personally engaged in Washington to support specific federal legislative provisions to enhance safety. As the initial learnings from East Palestine have made clear, meaningful enhancements will require the combined efforts of the entire industry, railcar owners, leasing companies, equipment manufacturers and the railroad companies.

我一直在華盛頓親自參與支持具體的聯邦立法規定，以加強安全。正如東巴勒斯坦的初步經驗表明，有意義的改進需要整個行業、鐵路車主、租賃公司、設備製造商和鐵路公司的共同努力。

Norfolk Southern intends to be a leader in that effort, and we embrace that role.

Norfolk Southern 打算成為這方面的領導者，我們接受這個角色。

Turning to Slide 4. At our Investor Day last December, we charted a new course for sustainable long-term value creation. We were the first railroad to launch a strategy that starts with safe, reliable and resilient service for our customers balanced with smart sustainable growth and productivity improvements.

轉到幻燈片 4。在去年 12 月的投資者日，我們為可持續的長期價值創造制定了新路線。我們是第一家推出戰略的鐵路公司，該戰略從為我們的客戶提供安全、可靠和有彈性的服務開始，並在明智的可持續增長和生產力提高之間取得平衡。

With everything we do we will focus on long-term priorities and value rather than just the short term. I am reaffirming my commitment to that vision and building the team to drive that strategy. This new direction is even more important today, and we have been working to execute our industry-leading strategy.

我們所做的一切都將專注於長期的優先事項和價值，而不僅僅是短期的。我重申我對這一願景的承諾，並組建團隊來推動該戰略。這個新方向在今天更為重要，我們一直在努力執行我們行業領先的戰略。

Our customer-centric operations-driven approach supports both service and safety and will enable us to grow with our customers sustainably for the long term. Our powerful network, desirable geographic footprint, best-in-class channel partners and strong relationships with our valued customers, uniquely position Norfolk Southern to deliver on our strategy. When we spoke in January service was the best in 2 years, customers were noticing and December volumes were at 52-week highs defined typical seasonality. Consistent with the long-term vision, after the East Palestine and Springfield derailments, we made 2 decisions. We knew would have a near-term impact on service, capacity and revenue.

我們以客戶為中心的運營驅動方法支持服務和安全，將使我們能夠與客戶長期可持續發展。我們強大的網絡、理想的地理足跡、一流的渠道合作夥伴以及與我們尊貴客戶的牢固關係，使 Norfolk Southern 處於實現我們戰略的獨特地位。當我們在 1 月份發表講話時，服務是 2 年來最好的，客戶注意到了，12 月份的銷量處於 52 周高位，定義了典型的季節性。與長期願景一致，在東巴勒斯坦和斯普林菲爾德出軌後，我們做出了 2 個決定。我們知道這會對服務、容量和收入產生近期影響。

First, we are pulling up the tracks at the derailment site in East Palestine and removing the impact of soil in response to feedback from the community and the EPA. Since March 3, we have had only 1 track at a time in service with trains running at restricted speed through this section of our busiest quarter. This mainline segment links Chicago to Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York, and there's a strength of our franchise.

首先，根據社區和 EPA 的反饋，我們正在東巴勒斯坦出軌地點拉起鐵軌並消除土壤的影響。自 3 月 3 日以來，我們一次只有 1 條軌道投入使用，列車在我們最繁忙的這個區域限速運行。這條幹線路段將芝加哥與東賓夕法尼亞、新澤西和紐約連接起來，我們的專營權很有實力。

We anticipate completing the remediation and having both tracks of service by early June.

我們預計在 6 月初之前完成修復並提供兩條服務軌道。

Second, out of an abundance of caution, in early March, we accelerated the analysis of train makeup rules as part of our broader efforts to improve safety, service and productivity, which we began implementing soon thereafter. As a result of these purposeful actions on our part, train capacity was limited initially. Paul will address this in greater detail.

其次，出於謹慎考慮，我們在 3 月初加快了對列車編組規則的分析，作為我們改善安全、服務和生產力的更廣泛努力的一部分，我們隨後很快開始實施。由於我們採取了這些有目的的行動，最初列車運力有限。保羅將更詳細地解決這個問題。

We are restoring capacity as we dial in this new set of processes. We do not anticipate any meaningful long-term impacts of service, capacity or cost structure. These were the right things to do. They are also the best decisions to enhance our ability to deliver on our long-term strategy of delivering resilient service. It will take some time to build resiliency and we're making progress.

當我們撥入這組新流程時，我們正在恢復容量。我們預計不會對服務、容量或成本結構產生任何有意義的長期影響。這些都是正確的做法。它們也是增強我們實現提供彈性服務的長期戰略能力的最佳決策。建立彈性需要一些時間，我們正在取得進展。

We continue to invest to ensure we have the right team and resources where they are needed to provide our customers with safe best-in-class service. As we shared when we announced our new strategy last December, we aren't focused on managing short-term OR with actions that will undermine our longer-term goals. We strive for more.

我們繼續投資以確保我們擁有合適的團隊和資源，為我們的客戶提供安全的一流服務。正如我們在去年 12 月宣布新戰略時所分享的那樣，我們並不專注於管理短期或採取會破壞我們長期目標的行動。我們爭取更多。

Our longer-term commitment to competitive margins will be balanced with other important financial measures such as growth in revenue, EPS and ROIC.

我們對有競爭力的利潤率的長期承諾將與其他重要的財務指標相平衡，例如收入、每股收益和 ROIC 的增長。

Putting that plan into action, we are making strategic investments in the near term that position us to deliver long-term value. One of those investments is to maintain the people and resources we need through economic downturns. This will allow us to respond more quickly and capture revenue growth when markets recover. Even more significant, resilient service enables our customers to confidently build rail into their supply chains and supports highway to rail conversions. We will use temporary downturns to invest in training, creating career opportunities for the craft railroaders who are the heart and soul of Norfolk Southern.

為將該計劃付諸行動，我們將在短期內進行戰略投資，使我們能夠實現長期價值。其中一項投資是在經濟衰退期間維持我們所需的人員和資源。這將使我們能夠更快地做出反應，並在市場復甦時實現收入增長。更重要的是，彈性服務使我們的客戶能夠自信地將鐵路建設到他們的供應鏈中，並支持公路到鐵路的轉換。我們將利用暫時的低迷時期投資於培訓，為諾福克南部的核心和靈魂的工藝鐵路工人創造職業機會。

I enjoy the time I spend in crew rooms and have made it my personal goal to listen to my craft colleagues about what they need. I won't stop working until our service and safety culture is the acknowledged model for the industry.

我很享受在船員室度過的時光，並將傾聽我的手藝同事們的需求作為我的個人目標。在我們的服務和安全文化成為業界公認的典範之前，我不會停止工作。

Our strategy is a better way forward for the industry. It's a better way to deliver value to shareholders, and it's the right thing to do for our employees, our customers and the communities we serve.

我們的戰略是行業更好的前進方向。這是為股東創造價值的更好方式，也是為我們的員工、客戶和我們所服務的社區所做的正確事情。

Before I turn it over to Mark, I'd like to take a moment and recognize our customers who have shown a tremendous amount of support throughout the challenges of the first quarter. I received countless calls, letters and e-mails from customers recognizing Norfolk Southern's positive response and dedication to making it right. It's made me proud to be part of the Norfolk Southern team and truly demonstrates the deep partnerships we have forged with our customers.

在我把它交給馬克之前，我想花點時間來表彰我們的客戶，他們在第一季度的挑戰中表現出了巨大的支持。我收到了無數來自客戶的電話、信件和電子郵件，他們對 Norfolk Southern 的積極響應和致力於做到正確的事情表示認可。成為 Norfolk Southern 團隊的一員讓我感到自豪，並真正展示了我們與客戶建立的深厚合作夥伴關係。

I'll now turn it over to Mark.

我現在把它交給馬克。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On Page 6, you will see our key financial results for the quarter. The top row represents the GAAP measures. On the second row are the current cost estimates and impacts related to the Eastern Ohio incident and response. On the third row, you see the adjusted results.

謝謝大家，早上好。在第 6 頁，您將看到我們本季度的主要財務業績。第一行代表 GAAP 措施。第二行是與東俄亥俄事件和響應相關的當前成本估算和影響。在第三行，您會看到調整後的結果。

The $387 million of expense that we recorded for the incident includes costs associated with the cleanup of the site, community support and restoration payments, legal and advisory expenses and a preliminary estimate of claims and settlements. It is important to note that no insurance or other recoveries are assumed in these estimates and that credits associated with these recoveries will be determined and recorded in future periods.

我們為該事件記錄的 3.87 億美元費用包括與場地清理、社區支持和恢復付款、法律和諮詢費用以及索賠和和解的初步估計相關的費用。重要的是要注意，這些估計中沒有假設任何保險或其他回收，並且與這些回收相關的信用將在未來期間確定和記錄。

Similarly, as we learn more, one can expect future estimates of cost will result in revisions to the accruals in subsequent quarters. The 2 rows at the bottom reflect the variances versus Q1 of 2022. GAAP earnings were down year-over-year due to the Eastern Ohio cost that were recorded.

同樣，隨著我們了解更多，可以預期未來的成本估計將導致隨後幾個季度的應計費用發生修正。底部的兩行反映了與 2022 年第一季度的差異。由於記錄了俄亥俄州東部的成本，GAAP 收益同比下降。

The adjusted variances at the bottom reflects 7% revenue growth that Ed will detail shortly, along with adjusted net income growth of 8% and adjusted EPS growth of 13%. Adjusted operating expense were up 11% in the quarter, and Slide 7 details the drivers, which I will walk through now.

底部的調整後差異反映了 Ed 稍後將詳細說明的 7% 的收入增長，以及 8% 的調整後淨收入增長和 13% 的調整後每股收益增長。本季度調整後的運營費用增長了 11%，幻燈片 7 詳細介紹了驅動因素，我現在將逐步介紹。

Adjusted operating expenses were up $204 million or 11%, with the majority of the increase being driven by inflation and incremental service-related costs. Inflationary pressures are visible in pretty much all P&L categories, most notably in comp and ben from last year's wage settlements. In comp and ben, we also saw an increase in headcount as we continue to build our T&E resources to help us become more reliable and resilient in support of our long-term strategy for growth.

調整後的運營支出增加了 2.04 億美元或 11%，其中大部分增長是由通貨膨脹和增量服務相關成本推動的。通脹壓力在幾乎所有損益類別中都可見，尤其是去年工資結算的薪酬和本。在 comp 和 ben，我們也看到了員工人數的增加，因為我們繼續建立我們的 T&E 資源，以幫助我們變得更加可靠和有彈性，以支持我們的長期增長戰略。

Purchase service growth is also impacted by inflation, but is also driven in part by technology investments, including projects aimed at improving productivity, operational executability and enhanced safety. The service disruptions triggered by the Eastern Ohio derailment, the associated shutdown of our main line in a critical corridor as well as the acceleration of our enhanced train makeup rules is having an incremental impact on costs, resulting in slower network speeds that inflates equipment rents while also driving a meaningful increase in material costs, in part because we strategically work to bring locomotives into service from our stored fleet to help accelerate our network.

採購服務的增長也受到通貨膨脹的影響，但也部分受到技術投資的推動，包括旨在提高生產力、運營可執行性和增強安全性的項目。俄亥俄州東部脫軌事件引發的服務中斷、我們在關鍵走廊的主要線路的相關關閉以及我們加強列車編組規則的加速對成本產生了增量影響，導致網絡速度變慢，從而增加了設備租金，同時還推動了材料成本的顯著增加，部分原因是我們從戰略上努力使機車從我們存儲的機隊中投入使用，以幫助加速我們的網絡。

Moving to depreciation, please recall that we gave guidance on depreciation headwind this year from a recently completed roadway depreciation study, and that contributed $8 million of headwind in the quarter, and that will continue as a headwind in subsequent quarters. We also drove fuel efficiency by another 1% improvement in the quarter versus last year.

關於折舊，請回想一下，我們根據最近完成的道路折舊研究給出了今年折舊逆風的指導，這在本季度貢獻了 800 萬美元的逆風，並將在隨後的幾個季度繼續作為逆風。我們還在本季度將燃油效率與去年同期相比又提高了 1%。

Moving to the P&L results below operating income on Slide 8 and I'll talk to the adjusted variances here in the right-hand columns. Operating income grew 1%. Other income was $56 million, aided by favorable returns on company-owned life insurance and that helped adjusted pretax income grow 7%. Net income grew 8% and EPS grew 13% in the quarter.

轉到幻燈片 8 營業收入下方的 P&L 結果，我將在右側列中討論調整後的差異。營業收入增長 1%。其他收入為 5600 萬美元，這得益於公司擁有的人壽保險的有利回報，這有助於調整後的稅前收入增長 7%。本季度淨收入增長 8%，每股收益增長 13%。

Turning to free cash flow and shareholder distributions on Slide 9. Cash from operations was $179 million higher, in part from changes in working capital, while free cash flow was $140 million higher than last year, and we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders with a strong dividend, supplemented by share repurchases.

轉向幻燈片 9 上的自由現金流和股東分配。運營現金增加 1.79 億美元，部分來自營運資金的變化，而自由現金流比去年增加 1.4 億美元，我們仍然致力於向股東返還資本強大的股息，輔之以股票回購。

Let me turn now to Paul for his review on operations.

現在請讓我談談保羅對運營的評論。

Thank you, Mark. I'll begin on Slide 11. On my first earnings call as Chief Operating Officer this January, I shared my intention to begin every update with safety. This reflects the priority we put on the topic. Everything we do starts with safety. At the time, my leadership team and I were in the middle of kickoff meetings with operations leaders across our network. Alan joined us for some of those meetings. Our marketing leadership team participated in others.

謝謝你，馬克。我將從幻燈片 11 開始。在今年 1 月我作為首席運營官的第一次財報電話會議上，我分享了我打算以安全的方式開始每次更新。這反映了我們對該主題的重視程度。我們所做的一切都從安全開始。當時，我和我的領導團隊正在與整個網絡的運營負責人舉行啟動會議。艾倫和我們一起參加了其中一些會議。我們的營銷領導團隊參與了其他活動。

We started every meeting with safety discussing that it is an enterprise priority. We are investing in our leadership this year with all of our ballast line supervisors in starting every conversation with safety. As leaders, we set the tone and tone influences culture.

我們在每次會議開始時都討論安全是企業的優先事項。今年，我們與所有壓載水管線主管一起投資於我們的領導力，以開始與安全的每一次對話。作為領導者，我們設定基調，基調影響文化。

We are also investing in the development of community responders, including a new regional training facility in Bellevue, Ohio. We are a safe railroad and constantly challenge ourselves to do even better.

我們還投資於社區響應人員的發展，包括在俄亥俄州貝爾維尤的一個新的區域培訓設施。我們是一條安全的鐵路，不斷挑戰自己做得更好。

We will continue to work with our employees and community partners on safety-related initiatives that further enhance our culture in these areas. I'll note specific steps we are taking to enhance safety after reviewing the NTSB's preliminary report on the East Palestine derailment, including adding 200 more hot bearing detectors onto our network expanding our network of acoustic bearing detectors and accelerating the deployment of digital train inspection portals, our most advanced safety technology, which we described in greater detail during our Investor Day.

我們將繼續與我們的員工和社區合作夥伴合作，開展與安全相關的舉措，進一步提升我們在這些領域的文化。在審查了 NTSB 關於東巴勒斯坦脫軌的初步報告後，我會指出我們正在採取的具體措施來加強安全，包括在我們的網絡中增加 200 個熱軸承檢測器，擴展我們的聲學軸承檢測器網絡，並加速數字列車檢查門戶的部署，我們最先進的安全技術，我們在投資者日期間對此進行了更詳細的描述。

On Slide 12, you will see our safety metrics. As Alan noted, in 2022, Norfolk Southern had the lowest rate of employee injuries in a decade with a 1.01 frequency ratio. We began 2023 with a 0.89 injury frequency ratio and continue to work so all of our colleagues go home to their families in the same condition they arrive. We are also making strides to reduce our FRA accident rate. We are showing one additional graph this quarter, reflecting the frequency of accidents that occur on mainline tracks.

在幻燈片 12 上，您將看到我們的安全指標。正如 Alan 指出的那樣，2022 年，Norfolk Southern 的員工受傷率是十年來最低的，頻率比為 1.01。我們以 0.89 的傷害頻率比率從 2023 年開始，並繼續努力，以便我們所有的同事都能以與他們到達時相同的條件回家。我們也在努力降低我們的法蘭克福機場事故率。我們在本季度展示了一張額外的圖表，反映了主線軌道上發生事故的頻率。

While we strive to reduce all accidents, mainline accidents tend to have greater impact to the communities that we serve. These have generally been flat with year-over-year improvement through Q1 compared to Q1 2022. Our investment in infrastructure is paying off, and we're confident our focus on equipment inspection technology will continue to drive our mainline accident rate lower.

雖然我們努力減少所有事故，但乾線事故往往會對我們服務的社區產生更大的影響。與 2022 年第一季度相比，第一季度總體上持平，同比有所改善。我們對基礎設施的投資正在取得回報，我們相信我們對設備檢查技術的關注將繼續降低我們的干線事故率。

Turning to Slide 13, I'll provide an update on our overall service. In the first quarter, we accelerated the analysis of train makeup rules as part of our broader efforts to improve safety, service and productivity. We began implementing enhancements soon thereafter, resulting in a significant short-term impact on velocity and the performance of our railroad. However, these changes were the right thing to do and have increased the reliability of our network and also allowed us to become even more productive. For example, we are now operating 50% more merchandise trains with distributed power than this same time last year. This was only possible thanks to our continuing commitment to locomotive modernization, another example of how we are investing in long-term value.

轉到幻燈片 13，我將提供有關我們整體服務的最新信息。在第一季度，我們加快了對列車編組規則的分析，作為我們提高安全、服務和生產力的更廣泛努力的一部分。此後不久，我們開始實施改進措施，對我們鐵路的速度和性能產生了重大的短期影響。但是，這些更改是正確的做法，它們提高了我們網絡的可靠性，還讓我們變得更加高效。例如，與去年同期相比，我們現在運營的分佈式能源商品列車數量增加了 50%。這要歸功於我們對機車現代化的持續承諾，這是我們如何投資長期價值的另一個例子。

As Alan explained, we also made the decision to pull up the 2 mainline tracks at the derailment site and remove all impacted soil. From March 3, until the remediation is complete, currently expected in early June, we are only operating one track at reduced speed through that section of our busy Premier Corridor. We have everything we need to recover from this temporary setback to our momentum. Remember that prior to the derailment, our service was the best it had been in 2 years. As we dial in our train makeup enhancements, we are already seeing improvements to our network in recent weeks.

正如 Alan 解釋的那樣，我們還決定拉起脫軌現場的 2 條主線軌道並清除所有受影響的土壤。從 3 月 3 日到修復完成（目前預計在 6 月初完成），我們僅在繁忙的 Premier Corridor 的那部分以較低的速度運行一條軌道。我們擁有從暫時的挫折中恢復過來所需的一切。請記住，在出軌之前，我們的服務是兩年來最好的。當我們撥入我們的火車化妝增強功能時，我們已經看到最近幾週我們的網絡有所改進。

We will continue to work through the backlog and do not expect any meaningful long-term impacts. We are eager to get back to the execution of our service-oriented strategy.

我們將繼續處理積壓的工作，預計不會產生任何有意義的長期影響。我們渴望重新開始執行面向服務的戰略。

Transitioning to Slide 14. As we invest in the people and resources we need to execute our strategy and become more resilient, we still have about 1/3 of our high-end locations below our minimum staffing target based on anticipated demand. We continue to hire at a strong pace and have a robust pipeline of trainees in place. We are employing incentives to attract candidates in targeted locations, and we are taking a series of steps to provide immediate support where it is needed. For example, we are leveraging our go teams and temporary transfers in critical areas as we continue to restore the network.

轉到幻燈片 14。由於我們投資於執行戰略所需的人員和資源並變得更具彈性，根據預期需求，我們仍有大約 1/3 的高端地點低於我們的最低人員配置目標。我們繼續以強勁的速度招聘，並擁有強大的受訓人員渠道。我們正在採取激勵措施在目標地點吸引候選人，我們正在採取一系列措施在需要的地方提供即時支持。例如，在我們繼續恢復網絡的過程中，我們正在關鍵地區利用我們的 go 團隊和臨時轉移。

Moving to Slide 15 for our productivity update. Starting with locomotives, we maintained progress in the quarter on keeping locomotive velocity well above last year's levels. The overall Train & Engine workforce productivity metric remains below last year due to the elevated pipeline of conductor trainees as well as maintaining capacity in support of service and future growth.

轉到幻燈片 15 了解我們的生產力更新。從機車開始，本季度我們在保持機車速度遠高於去年水平方面取得了進展。由於售票員培訓生數量增加以及支持服務和未來增長的能力保持不變，整體火車和發動機勞動力生產率指標仍低於去年。

As we have discussed, an essential aspect of our balanced strategy for service, productivity and growth is to provide resilient service through economic downturns and times of volume uncertainty. This represents a deliberate strategic investment to maintain capacity in support of service and future growth.

正如我們所討論的，我們的服務、生產力和增長平衡戰略的一個重要方面是在經濟衰退和數量不確定時期提供有彈性的服務。這是一項深思熟慮的戰略投資，旨在維持支持服務和未來增長的能力。

Lastly, our modernized locomotive fleet and fuel efficiency initiatives produced another quarter of record fuel productivity. This is another area where we will continue to invest to drive benefits for our shareholders, customers and the communities we serve.

最後，我們的現代化機車車隊和燃油效率計劃又創造了四分之一的創紀錄燃油生產率。這是我們將繼續投資的另一個領域，旨在為我們的股東、客戶和我們所服務的社區帶來利益。

I'll now turn it over to Ed Elkins.

我現在將其交給 Ed Elkins。

Thanks, Paul, and good morning to everyone on the call. I'm starting on Slide 17, where our results for the quarter speak to the benefits of our diverse portfolio in that we were able to de-leverage strong market conditions in our merchandise and coal markets to offset weaker conditions in our intermodal markets. This enabled year-over-year growth in revenue and revenue per unit in the first quarter.

謝謝，保羅，早上好，所有在電話中的人。我從幻燈片 17 開始，我們本季度的業績說明了我們多元化投資組合的好處，因為我們能夠利用商品和煤炭市場的強勁市場條件來抵消多式聯運市場的疲軟條件。這使得第一季度的收入和單位收入同比增長。

As you can see, overall volume was flat, but total revenue increased 7% to $3.1 billion due to higher fuel surcharges and positive mix, which more than offset lower volume in storage revenue in intermodal. Volume and revenue were strongest in January when our service product was the best it has been in 2 years, and the truck market was showing signs of rebalancing. Volume and revenue decelerated throughout the quarter as service disruptions impacted our ability to meet customer demand in key markets and the truck market continued to deteriorate.

如您所見，整體銷量持平，但總收入增長 7% 至 31 億美元，原因是燃油附加費增加和積極的組合，這足以抵消多式聯運倉儲收入的下降。 1 月份的銷量和收入最為強勁，當時我們的服務產品是 2 年來最好的，卡車市場顯示出再平衡的跡象。由於服務中斷影響了我們滿足主要市場客戶需求的能力，並且卡車市場繼續惡化，因此整個季度的銷量和收入都在下降。

Our performance in January demonstrates that a customer-centric operations-driven approach can yield significant value for our customers and our shareholders. Within merchandise, volume growth of 5% was led by strength in sand, automotive, grain and aggregates markets. These gains were partially offset by weakness in demand for plastics and for pulp board. Volume improvement was the largest driver of double-digit revenue growth in merchandise this quarter, followed by higher fuel prices and price gains.

我們在一月份的表現表明，以客戶為中心的運營驅動方法可以為我們的客戶和股東帶來巨大的價值。在商品方面，沙子、汽車、穀物和集料市場的強勁帶動了 5% 的銷量增長。這些收益部分被塑料和紙漿板需求疲軟所抵消。銷量改善是本季度商品收入實現兩位數增長的最大推動力，其次是燃料價格上漲和價格上漲。

Intermodal markets were notably weaker this quarter, particularly within our domestic lines of business where a weak freight environment and a weakening truck sector combined to drive a 4% volume decline year-over-year. International intermodal was a bright spot this quarter with volumes improving 9% year-over-year on higher demand for IPI services, even as overall imports fell, which helped to mitigate some of the domestic declines.

本季度多式聯運市場明顯疲軟，尤其是在我們的國內業務範圍內，疲軟的貨運環境和疲軟的卡車行業共同導致貨運量同比下降 4%。國際聯運是本季度的一個亮點，由於對 IPI 服務的需求增加，貨運量同比增長 9%，儘管整體進口下降，這有助於緩解部分國內下降。

Intermodal revenue benefited from higher fuel surcharges and price this quarter However, not enough to overcome the negative impacts of lower storage revenue and lower domestic volume, which drove a 5% decline in revenue versus the prior period.

多式聯運收入受益於本季度較高的燃油附加費和價格，但是，這不足以克服存儲收入下降和國內運輸量下降的負面影響，這導致收入較上一期間下降 5%。

Now I'd note that the combination of improving international IPI volumes and declining intermodal storage revenue is a strong indication that supply chain congestion is rapidly unwinding in the U.S.

現在我要指出的是，國際 IPI 數量的增加和多式聯運存儲收入下降的結合強烈表明，美國的供應鏈擁堵正在迅速緩解。

Coal shipments in the first quarter were up 5% year-over-year, led by export, which is currently experiencing continued high levels of demand as well as greater coal supply in our service territory to meet that demand. Volume growth was muted somewhat by year-over-year declines in utility coal due to depressed natural gas prices and mild winter weather.

在出口的帶動下，第一季度煤炭出貨量同比增長 5%，出口目前正經歷著持續的高需求以及我們服務區域的更多煤炭供應以滿足該需求。由於天然氣價格低迷和冬季天氣溫和，公用事業用煤同比下降，銷量增長有所放緩。

Coal revenue was up 13% in the first quarter, driven by higher volumes, fuel surcharge and price gains.

受產量增加、燃油附加費和價格上漲的推動，第一季度煤炭收入增長了 13%。

Now moving to Slide 18. As we look ahead to the remainder of 2023, we expect near-term headwinds to pressure volume and revenue throughout the second quarter. However, we are optimistic that our service product will be much improved in the back half of the year, positioning us to return to growth when market conditions permit.

現在轉到幻燈片 18。展望 2023 年剩餘時間，我們預計近期的逆風將對整個第二季度的銷量和收入造成壓力。然而，我們樂觀地認為我們的服務產品將在下半年得到很大改善，使我們能夠在市場條件允許的情況下恢復增長。

Additionally, we are walking on to the field today with the best marketing team in the business. And this team is working hard to identify new avenues to growth in the form of new markets to serve and new products to deliver. Even in a decelerating economy, we know that we can offer exceptional value to customers seeking to reduce their overall spend on transportation and reduce their carbon footprint. As we look at the rest of the year, Merchandise growth will be led by automotive shipments, supported by the forecasted 5% growth in U.S. light vehicle production for the remaining quarters of 2023. Also contributing to growth in automotive shipments is a backlog of shippable ground counts that we will work through as our service improves.

此外，我們今天正與業內最好的營銷團隊一起走向實地。這個團隊正在努力尋找新的增長途徑，以服務新市場和交付新產品的形式出現。即使在經濟減速的情況下，我們也知道我們可以為尋求減少交通總支出和減少碳足蹟的客戶提供卓越的價值。展望今年剩餘時間，商品增長將由汽車出貨量帶動，預計 2023 年剩餘季度美國輕型汽車產量將增長 5%。同樣推動汽車出貨量增長的是可交付訂單積壓隨著我們服務的改進，我們將努力解決的問題。

We also expect strong volume improvement in our metals market where improved equipment cycle times will enable us to serve unmet demand. Partially offsetting expected growth will be weakness in our chemicals markets where certain segments, like plastics, are experiencing weaker demand.

我們還預計我們金屬市場的銷量將大幅增加，設備週期時間的縮短將使我們能夠滿足未滿足的需求。部分抵消預期增長的將是我們化學品市場的疲軟，其中塑料等某些領域的需求疲軟。

Facility downtime and increased pipeline capacity will also drive year-over-year declines in shipments of crude oil and natural gas liquids. Within our intermodal markets, volume in 2023 will be largely dependent on economic conditions, particularly the health of the American consumer. Currently, we see headwinds from excess truck capacity replenished inventories and a challenging consumer economy, and these headwinds are likely to persist throughout the second quarter, negatively impacting volume, particularly in our domestic lines of business.

設施停機和管道容量增加也將導致原油和液化天然氣的出貨量同比下降。在我們的多式聯運市場中，2023 年的交易量將在很大程度上取決於經濟狀況，尤其是美國消費者的健康狀況。目前，我們看到卡車產能過剩補充庫存和充滿挑戰的消費經濟帶來的不利因素，這些不利因素可能會持續整個第二季度，對銷量產生負面影響，尤其是在我們的國內業務領域。

Looking at the back half of '23, clearly, the economic conditions remain uncertain. We see continued weakness in the housing market, which negatively impacts demand for furniture, home appliances, electronics, all those things that want to move in a container. That market has not rebalanced as we anticipated earlier this year, with spot and contract truck rates continuing to fall throughout the first quarter.

看看 23 年的後半段，顯然，經濟狀況仍然不確定。我們看到房地產市場持續疲軟，這對家具、家用電器、電子產品以及所有想要裝在集裝箱中的東西的需求產生了負面影響。該市場並未像我們今年早些時候預期的那樣重新平衡，現貨和合同卡車費率在整個第一季度持續下降。

So the timing of the rebalancing will have a large impact on our volume outlook. Additionally, our domestic partners outlook for the second half of '23 has dimmed somewhat. International intermodal shipments will be driven by demand for IPI, which is a function of import volumes, which is declining and supply chain fluidity, which is improving.

因此，重新平衡的時機將對我們的交易量前景產生重大影響。此外，我們的國內合作夥伴對 23 年下半年的前景有所暗淡。國際聯運運輸將由對 IPI 的需求驅動，IPI 是進口量下降和供應鏈流動性改善的函數。

Fluidity has returned to supply chains faster than we expected, which will be a tailwind to volumes, but will negatively impact intermodal storage revenue for the remainder of this year. Taken together, we are optimistic for our intermodal business to overcome these near-term challenges and to finish the year with momentum to realize the long-term potential of this market.

流動性恢復到供應鏈的速度比我們預期的要快，這將對銷量產生不利影響，但將對今年剩餘時間的多式聯運倉儲收入產生負面影響。總而言之，我們對我們的多式聯運業務克服這些近期挑戰並以實現這一市場的長期潛力的勢頭結束這一年持樂觀態度。

We have the best intermodal partners in the industry. And our team is working hard to ensure that we are positioned for success with them as the market turns.

我們擁有業內最好的多式聯運合作夥伴。我們的團隊正在努力確保我們能夠隨著市場的轉變與他們一起取得成功。

Lastly, volume in our coal business for the remainder of '23 will be up versus '22 with growth in export coal shipments more than offsetting expected declines in utility coal. Strength in export coal markets will be driven by new coal production coming online at NS-served mines and sustained international demand for U.S. sourced coal. However, the expected increase in volume will be more than offset by anticipated lower revenue per unit due to lower seaborne coal prices and reduced fuel surcharge revenue.

最後，我們的煤炭業務在 23 年剩餘時間裡的銷量將高於 22 年，出口煤炭出貨量的增長超過了公用事業煤炭的預期下降。受 NS 服務的煤礦上線的新煤炭生產以及對美國採購煤炭的持續國際需求將推動出口煤炭市場走強。然而，由於海運煤炭價格下降和燃油附加費收入減少，預期的銷量增長將被預期的單位收入減少所抵消。

The utility outlook is highly dependent upon weather and natural gas pricing, which is currently expected to average less than $3 per million BTU in '23, a more than 50% decrease from last year.

公用事業前景在很大程度上取決於天氣和天然氣定價，目前預計 23 年平均每百萬 BTU 不到 3 美元，比去年下降 50% 以上。

In addition, stockpiles are currently at increased levels, which further pressures demand for utility coal shipments. Overall, we have a cautious outlook for the remainder of '23. Improving service levels will be a tailwind, but persistent market headwinds and a stubbornly loose truck market will temper our ability to grow in the near term.

此外，庫存目前處於增加的水平，這進一步壓低了對公用事業煤炭運輸的需求。總體而言，我們對 23 年剩餘時間的前景持謹慎態度。提高服務水平將是順風，但持續的市場逆風和頑固的寬鬆卡車市場將削弱我們在短期內的增長能力。

Overall, growth in 2023 will be dependent on the macro environment. We continue to put our efforts on things that we can control to deliver on our customer-centric operations-driven strategy. We are making the investments required to deliver compelling logistics value for the long-term through a simple, reliable and efficient customer experience.

總體而言，2023 年的增長將取決於宏觀環境。我們繼續將精力放在我們可以控制的事情上，以實現我們以客戶為中心的運營驅動戰略。我們正在進行必要的投資，以通過簡單、可靠和高效的客戶體驗提供具有吸引力的長期物流價值。

Lastly, on Slide 19, I'd like to highlight a recent industrial development success that demonstrates the long-term value of locating along Norfolk Southern lines. Scout Motors, an independent U.S. company backed by Volkswagen Group is locating a new manufacturing plant in Blythewood, South Carolina and a site served by Norfolk Southern. In Phase 1, this new plant will produce more than 200,000 new electric vehicles and create over 4,000 permanent jobs. The $2 billion investment by Scout will revive an iconic brand that last produced vehicles in 1980, and we couldn't be happier that Scout selected a site served by Norfolk Southern. We look forward to serving their business by the end of 2026.

最後，在幻燈片 19 上，我想強調最近工業發展的成功，它證明了沿諾福克南部線定位的長期價值。 Scout Motors 是一家由大眾汽車集團支持的獨立美國公司，它正在南卡羅來納州的布萊斯伍德建立一家新的製造工廠，並在 Norfolk Southern 提供服務。在第一階段，這個新工廠將生產超過 200,000 輛新電動汽車，並創造超過 4,000 個永久性工作崗位。 Scout 的 20 億美元投資將重振 1980 年最後一次生產汽車的標誌性品牌，我們非常高興 Scout 選擇了 Norfolk Southern 提供服務的地點。我們期待在 2026 年底之前為他們的業務提供服務。

Before I close, I'd like to say thank you to our customers who have supported us through the challenges of this first quarter. We appreciate every opportunity that they give us to participate in their supply chains, and we look forward to successfully growing these partnerships. We are confident in our ability to realize long-term growth and we look forward to delivering results for our customers and for our shareholders.

在我結束之前，我想對在第一季度的挑戰中支持我們的客戶表示感謝。我們感謝他們給我們提供的每一個參與他們供應鏈的機會，我們期待著成功發展這些夥伴關係。我們對實現長期增長的能力充滿信心，我們期待為我們的客戶和股東帶來成果。

And with that, I'll turn it back over to Alan to bring us home.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給艾倫帶我們回家。

Thanks, Ed. This week marks the end of my first year as CEO. As I reflect on the year more broadly and especially the last few months, I appreciate that adversity reveals character. That's true for people, and it's true for organizations. I'm inspired by my colleagues at Norfolk Southern, who are rising to the challenge of doing the right thing.

謝謝，埃德。本週標誌著我擔任 CEO 的第一年結束。當我更廣泛地回顧這一年，尤其是過去幾個月時，我意識到逆境揭示了性格。對人如此，對組織也是如此。我受到 Norfolk Southern 的同事們的啟發，他們正在迎接做正確事情的挑戰。

We are anchored by our values and driven by our responsibility to safely deliver the goods and materials that move the U.S. economy.

我們以我們的價值觀為基礎，並以安全交付推動美國經濟發展的貨物和材料的責任為動力。

Moving forward, Norfolk Southern will be known for safe operations and for delivering service, productivity and growth through our pioneering new strategy. Our response in East Palestine will be a source of pride for years to come, and we will be a stronger company, setting the pace for our industry. Whether it's our commitment to the citizens of East Palestine, our employees, our customers are to all the communities in which we operate every day. When we do the next right thing, we deliver long-term value creation for our shareholders. We will now open the call to questions. Operator?

展望未來，Norfolk Southern 將以安全運營以及通過我們開創性的新戰略提供服務、生產力和增長而聞名。我們在東巴勒斯坦的反應將成為未來幾年的驕傲，我們將成為一家更強大的公司，為我們的行業設定步伐。無論是我們對東巴勒斯坦公民、我們的員工、我們的客戶還是對我們每天運營所在的所有社區的承諾。當我們做下一件正確的事時，我們就會為股東創造長期價值。我們現在將開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Great. Thanks for the rundown there. Just maybe Alan or Ed, you talked about rebounding service levels, yet volumes are down 8% quarter-to-date much worse than the flat in the first quarter. Maybe you could talk a little bit about the timing from when you get back to that normal seed through this quarter? And then you mentioned you're still about 1/3 of the target levels or below the target level of your T&E targets in some regions. Third seems awfully big, given the focus you've had on hiring people. Maybe talk about the sustained cost impact and the ability to get there.

偉大的。感謝那裡的破敗。也許艾倫或埃德，你談到了服務水平的反彈，但本季度迄今為止的銷量下降了 8%，比第一季度的持平情況要糟糕得多。也許您可以談談從本季度恢復到正常種子的時間安排？然後你提到你仍然是目標水平的 1/3 左右或低於某些地區 T&E 目標的目標水平。考慮到您一直專注於招聘人員，Third 似乎非常大。也許談談持續的成本影響和實現目標的能力。

Ken, thanks for the question. Yes, we're in the process of recovering service. And I want to make it really clear. We had a great service product to close last year and in January. And you saw the attendant impact on our volumes, right? It proves that our unique vision, our unique focus and our unique strategy works in this industry. And we remain committed to executing on that.

肯，謝謝你的提問。是的，我們正在恢復服務。我想說得很清楚。去年和 1 月，我們有一個很棒的服務產品要關閉。你看到了隨之而來的對我們銷量的影響，對吧？它證明了我們獨特的眼光、我們獨特的關注點和我們獨特的戰略在這個行業中行之有效。我們仍然致力於執行這一點。

In the aftermath of East Palestine, we had some tough decisions to make. And we made those decisions knowing full well that it would have a near-term impact on our service and our productivity and our growth, but they were the right decisions to make because they align with our core values, and they are long -- aligned with our long-term focus as a customer-centric operations-driven service organization. The same operating team and the same marketing team that delivered that exceptional service product late last year and the beginning of this year is in place now. And we're in much better shape with our resources. And so I don't think the climb out will be nearly as long. Certainly, we want to get the track back in place in East Palestine. And that, as Paul noted, will probably happen in the beginning of June. And so I think as we move into and through the third quarter, you're going to see us in a position to deliver that exceptional service product that customers have become accustomed to receiving from Norfolk Southern.

在東巴勒斯坦事件之後，我們需要做出一些艱難的決定。我們做出這些決定時非常清楚，這會對我們的服務、我們的生產力和我們的增長產生短期影響，但它們是做出正確的決定，因為它們符合我們的核心價值觀，而且它們是長期一致的我們長期專注於以客戶為中心的運營驅動型服務組織。去年年底和今年年初交付卓越服務產品的同一運營團隊和同一營銷團隊現已到位。而且我們的資源狀況要好得多。所以我認為爬出來的時間不會那麼長。當然，我們希望在東巴勒斯坦恢復原狀。正如保羅指出的那樣，這可能會在六月初發生。因此，我認為隨著我們進入第三季度並持續到第三季度，您將看到我們能夠提供客戶已經習慣從 Norfolk Southern 獲得的卓越服務產品。

Ed, do you want to talk about what you're hearing from customers on that?

Ed，你想談談你從客戶那裡聽到的關於這方面的信息嗎？

Sure. And I appreciate the question. really, it's a story of a couple of different markets. We've been very fortunate, frankly, that we've been able to preserve a large amount of fluidity in our intermodal network. We think that's really important as we move forward here as we work off this excess inventory because bid season is happening right now, and we will see our customers come through this with some very strong performance later on in the year. So we're banking on the come, so to speak, in terms of our customers' performance on the intermodal side.

當然。我很欣賞這個問題。實際上，這是一個關於幾個不同市場的故事。坦率地說，我們非常幸運，我們能夠在多式聯運網絡中保持大量的流動性。我們認為這非常重要，因為我們正在處理過剩庫存，因為現在是投標季節，我們將看到我們的客戶在今年晚些時候以非常強勁的表現度過難關。因此，可以說，就客戶在多式聯運方面的表現而言，我們寄希望於未來。

The consumer market is clearly still deteriorating. You've heard that elsewhere. You read it in the Wall Street Journal On the industrial side, there's still lots of demand out there for us to meet with additional capacity as we improve our service. We're bullish on that front.

消費市場顯然仍在惡化。你在別處聽說過。你在《華爾街日報》上讀到過 在工業方面，隨著我們改善服務，我們仍然有很多需求來滿足額外的產能。我們看好這方面。

Our next question is from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank. Okay. We will come back to him. Our next question will be from Chris Wetherbee with Citi Group.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。好的。我們會回到他身邊。我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

There's 2 comments that you made in the prepared remarks that I wanted to just maybe see if we can get a little bit more color on, Alan, you talked about, I think, over the long run, no long-term impacts from the derailment on service capacity or cost structure. So really wanted to sort of explore that cost structure dynamic and maybe how you're thinking about that?

你在準備好的發言中發表了 2 條評論，我想看看我們是否可以得到更多的顏色，艾倫，你談到了，我認為，從長遠來看，脫軌不會產生長期影響關於服務能力或成本結構。所以真的很想探索這種成本結構動態，也許你是如何考慮的？

And then Mark, you talked a little bit about the potential, I think, for future estimates of cost that could result in accruals. I think that's obviously a very important dynamic as we're thinking about the long-term impact of the derailment. So if we could just sort of think about the longer-term outlook and what it might mean from a cost perspective going forward, so we can get an idea of sort of what the run rate earnings power of this network is going forward, that would be very helpful.

然後馬克，我認為你談到了未來可能導致應計費用的成本估算的可能性。我認為這顯然是一個非常重要的動力，因為我們正在考慮脫軌的長期影響。因此，如果我們可以考慮一下長期前景以及從未來成本的角度來看這可能意味著什麼，那麼我們就可以了解該網絡未來的運行率盈利能力，那將很有幫助。

Yes. Chris, as I talked about cost structure and service going forward. It was in the context of our new train marshalling rules, which did initially have an impact because we -- frankly, we got really conservative on our train marshalling rules based on the environment and recent events. As we are dialing that in and analyzing each train symbol on each line segment, we're adding capacity back into the network. And as Paul noted, we're using this as an opportunity to significantly increase our use of distributed power, which will frankly ultimately enhance our productivity and our train length. So I feel very confident that we did the right thing at that time, and it's going to generate long-term benefit for NS and our customers and our shareholders, and that's kind of what our strategic vision is all about. Mark?

是的。克里斯，當我談到未來的成本結構和服務時。這是在我們新的火車編組規則的背景下，它最初確實產生了影響，因為我們 - 坦率地說，我們根據環境和最近發生的事件對我們的火車編組規則非常保守。當我們撥入並分析每個線段上的每個火車符號時，我們正在將容量重新添加到網絡中。正如保羅指出的那樣，我們正在以此為契機來顯著增加我們對分佈式能源的使用，坦率地說，這最終將提高我們的生產力和列車長度。所以我非常有信心我們當時做了正確的事情，這將為 NS 以及我們的客戶和股東帶來長期利益，這就是我們戰略願景的全部內容。標記？

Yes. So on East Palestine, Chris, as of the first quarter point in time, we made an estimate of the various elements of costs that we'd be facing and came up with that $387 million. The preponderance of that really is related to the environmental cleanup efforts and future environmental remediation activities. And also, it's important to note that because of the EPA involvement in all of this, there is likely to be oversight costs that we have to reimburse the government for as well. So that's all part of the estimate.

是的。因此，在東巴勒斯坦，克里斯，截至第一季度的時間點，我們對我們將面臨的各種成本要素進行了估算，並得出了 3.87 億美元。這主要與環境清理工作和未來的環境修復活動有關。而且，重要的是要注意，由於 EPA 參與了所有這一切，因此我們也可能需要償還政府的監督成本。所以這就是估計的一部分。

There are things that are -- we could not estimate and therefore, could not record in the quarter, stuff really related to legal, I'll give you just one example with the Ohio Attorney General and the 3 funds that are going to be established. There was no way to estimate that. So that would be an example of something in the future that would come.

有些事情 - 我們無法估計，因此無法在本季度記錄，真正與法律相關的事情，我會給你一個例子，俄亥俄州總檢察長和將要建立的 3 個基金.沒有辦法估計。所以這將是未來會發生的事情的一個例子。

So as we learn of new things and are able and realize that they're probable and they're estimable, we will record those. But at the same time, I remind you that there are no insurance recovery estimates that have been recorded at this point. In fact, of that $387 million, cash out the door has really been $55 million, okay? So most of this is accrual based on estimates.

因此，當我們了解新事物並且能夠並意識到它們是可能的並且是可估計的時，我們將記錄下來。但與此同時，我提醒您，目前還沒有記錄任何保險賠償估計數。事實上，在這 3.87 億美元中，流出的現金實際上是 5500 萬美元，好嗎？因此，其中大部分是基於估計的應計費用。

Insurance filings will really be done as we incur the costs from a cash perspective. So down the road, we'll be assembling our filings for the insurance companies and seeking reimbursement, and we will record those in due course as a credit. And so with regard to predictability or estimating those, it's impossible if we could estimate and we probably would have booked them already. So we'll just have to keep reporting these out as we go in the subsequent quarters.

保險申報將真正完成，因為我們從現金角度承擔成本。因此，在未來，我們將為保險公司整理文件並尋求報銷，我們將在適當的時候將這些記錄為信用。因此，關於可預測性或估計這些，如果我們可以估計是不可能的，我們可能已經預訂了。因此，我們只需要在接下來的幾個季度中繼續報告這些內容。

Yes. And I'll add, nor does our estimate include any potential recovery from other parties as well.

是的。我要補充的是，我們的估計也不包括來自其他方的任何潛在恢復。

Correct. Correct.

正確的。正確的。

Our next question is from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

Thanks. Mark, the materials costs were really high. Any color on where that goes from here? Just any thoughts on the operating ratio from here? And then separately, Ed, the merchandise yields actually fell a little bit from Q4 to Q1. I thought Q1 has a lot of repricing. I just would have thought merchandise yields would have been better. Any color there?

謝謝。馬克，材料成本真的很高。從這裡去哪裡有任何顏色嗎？從這裡對運營比率有什麼想法嗎？然後，Ed，商品收益率實際上從第四季度到第一季度略有下降。我認為 Q1 有很多重新定價。我只是認為商品收益率會更好。那裡有顏色嗎？

Yes. So on materials, Scott, the impact from what we had early in the year had a pretty profound sudden impact on the network. We needed to get locomotives to help dig us out, so we basically took locomotives out of stored status. Some of them required a lot of work to get them rejuvenated so they could help take us out. I think there will be some incremental material costs that will linger here in the second quarter and should ease in the back half of the year as we see our network fluidity improve. Ed?

是的。因此，在材料方面，斯科特，我們今年年初的影響對網絡產生了相當深遠的突然影響。我們需要得到機車來幫助把我們挖出來，所以我們基本上把機車從儲存狀態中取出來了。他們中的一些人需要做很多工作才能讓他們恢復活力，這樣他們才能幫助我們擺脫困境。我認為第二季度會有一些增量材料成本會持續存在，並且隨著我們看到網絡流動性的改善，應該會在今年下半年有所緩解。埃德？

Sure. Our core pricing remained very strong in the first quarter. As a matter of fact, we exceeded our expectations in several markets, including in coal and intermodal. I think what you're really seeing on the merchandise side is a mix issue. We noted that plastics was weak and some of our other chemicals. A lot of it goes into housing and everybody knows what's happening to the housing markets right now. it's a challenge, but that's a mix issue. Our core pricing story remains very much intact and in fact, I'm very bullish for it.

當然。我們的核心定價在第一季度仍然非常強勁。事實上，我們在多個市場超出了我們的預期，包括煤炭和多式聯運。我認為你在商品方面真正看到的是一個混合問題。我們注意到塑料和我們的其他一些化學品很脆弱。其中很多都進入了房地產市場，每個人都知道現在房地產市場正在發生什麼。這是一個挑戰，但這是一個混合問題。我們的核心定價故事仍然完好無損，事實上，我非常看好它。

Our next question is from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

Paul, can you talk to the train makeup changes that you guys discussed and how that had a near-term impact, but what's going to change in the future that allows you to get back to your productivity targets?

保羅，你能談談你們討論過的火車化妝變化以及它如何產生近期影響，但未來會發生什麼變化讓你回到你的生產力目標？

Brandon, I'm going to cover that because that's something that Paul and I discussed at length. As I noted, we had some tough decisions to make in the first quarter. And the trend makeup rules was -- decision was based on the ongoing environment of recent events. Paul and I had a discussion in early March, and we decided we were going to get really conservative on our train makeup rules until we had an opportunity to deeply and thoroughly analyze each train symbol over each line segment. That created some congestion on our network because it had an initial impact on reducing capacity on our network.

布蘭登，我將介紹這一點，因為這是我和保羅詳細討論的內容。正如我所指出的，我們在第一季度做出了一些艱難的決定。趨勢化妝規則是——決定是基於最近事件的持續環境。 Paul 和我在 3 月初進行了討論，我們決定在我們有機會深入徹底地分析每條線段上的每個火車符號之前，我們將在火車構成規則上變得非常保守。這對我們的網絡造成了一些擁塞，因為它對減少我們網絡的容量產生了初步影響。

Paul and his team are going through each train symbol, each line segment, doing the analysis, looking at the physics figuring out the right configuration of the train and the right configuration for the locomotives. And as we do that, we're adding capacity back in. As Paul noted, that includes expanded use of distributed power, which is going to support our productivity initiatives going forward. And ultimately, we are convinced that it's not going to have an impact on service. It's not going to have an impact on capacity and in many cases, it's probably going to improve productivity.

Paul 和他的團隊正在檢查每個火車符號、每個線段，進行分析，查看物理學來確定火車的正確配置和機車的正確配置。當我們這樣做的時候，我們正在增加容量。正如保羅指出的那樣，這包括擴大分佈式電源的使用，這將支持我們未來的生產力計劃。最終，我們確信它不會對服務產生影響。它不會對容量產生影響，而且在許多情況下，它可能會提高生產率。

Our next question is from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Alan, I wanted to ask about how the remediation efforts are going. I think the EPA update the few pages that they put out a few weeks ago was pretty positive in terms of the progress that you guys are making. And just related to that, what do you think the volume impact has been? Because you were at this kind of 130,000 to 140,000 weekly carloads. Obviously, that's dipped down, just helpful to think -- do you think there's a snapback in early June?

艾倫，我想問一下補救工作的進展情況。我認為 EPA 更新了他們幾週前發布的幾頁，就你們正在取得的進展而言，這是非常積極的。與此相關的是，您認為數量影響是什麼？因為你每周有 130,000 到 140,000 輛汽車。顯然，這有所下降，只是有助於思考——你認為 6 月初會出現反彈嗎？

And then Mark, I'm also trying to understand the impact fuel has on yield and operating income. It's been volatile to the downside, and I'm just thinking that maybe it turns into a headwind on OI dollars as you progress through the year. Any thoughts around that in terms of what the headwind or tailwind or neutrality is from fuel on operating income as we progress through the year?

然後馬克，我也在試圖了解燃料對產量和營業收入的影響。它的下行波動很大，我只是在想，隨著你今年的進步，它可能會成為 OI 美元的逆風。隨著我們這一年的進展，關於燃料對營業收入的影響是什麼逆風、順風或中性，有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, Amit, I'll handle the first part of your 3-part 1 question. Yes, when we -- when this happened, we said we're going to stay true to our core values, and we're going to do what's right. And that means we're going to do what's right for the long-term best interest of Norfolk Southern and East Palestine. And frankly, our response in East Palestine has reinforced my conviction that taking a long-term view, the best interest of your shareholders, your customers, your employees and the communities you serve, as a customer-centric operations-driven service organization is the right vision and the right strategy for Norfolk Southern.

是的，阿米特，我將處理您的 3 部分 1 問題的第一部分。是的，當我們 - 當這發生時，我們說我們將忠於我們的核心價值觀，我們將做正確的事。這意味著我們將為諾福克南部和東部巴勒斯坦的長期最佳利益做正確的事情。坦率地說，我們在東巴勒斯坦的回應加強了我的信念，即從長遠來看，作為一個以客戶為中心的運營驅動型服務組織，您的股東、客戶、員工和您所服務的社區的最大利益是Norfolk Southern 的正確願景和正確戰略。

And so I met with the head of the EPA, and I made my personal commitment that we were going to do more than less. And that's what you're seeing. We've got 300 people on the ground whether they are employees or contractors, 7 days a week, and I sincerely appreciate their sacrifices and their willingness to do this, and frankly, the sacrifices of their families as well. And they're intently focused on the environmental remediation. They're intently focused on community assistance and they're intently focused on helping the community thrive. And we've reached a major milestone about 1.5 weeks ago, where we finished the remediation under one track and have started on another track. And that was something that we did didn't necessarily need to be done because we had an environmentally acceptable solution in place, but that was something that we did based on feedback that I received from the citizens of the community and from the EPA.

所以我會見了 EPA 的負責人，我做出了個人承諾，我們將做更多而不是更少。這就是你所看到的。我們有 300 人在現場，無論他們是僱員還是承包商，每週工作 7 天，我真誠地感謝他們的犧牲和願意這樣做，坦率地說，還有他們家人的犧牲。他們專注於環境整治。他們專注於社區援助，專注於幫助社區繁榮發展。大約 1.5 週前，我們達到了一個重要的里程碑，我們在一個軌道下完成了修復，並開始了另一個軌道。我們做的事情不一定需要做，因為我們有一個環境可接受的解決方案，但這是我們根據我從社區公民和 EPA 收到的反饋所做的事情。

Ed, do you want to talk about what you're seeing in the markets and the volume impact of the slower network but also the macro trends?

Ed，你想談談你在市場上看到的情況以及網絡速度變慢對銷量的影響以及宏觀趨勢嗎？

Sure, absolutely. And it's kind of a -- I'll try to answer it in 2 parts. Let's go to the industrial side first. Clearly, as we accelerate our network, work off the backlog of inventory at our yards, we're going to be able to present our customers with more capacity. And we know that there are customers that are ready to load that additional capacity right now whether it's in the steel markets, whether it's in the scrap markets. It's certainly in the auto markets. And I would also mention our ag and our coal networks, which also are going to benefit from increased fluidity and sustained demand, we believe, going forward.

當然，絕對。這有點——我將嘗試分兩部分來回答。讓我們先來看看工業方面。顯然，隨著我們加速我們的網絡，處理我們船廠的積壓庫存，我們將能夠為我們的客戶提供更多的容量。我們知道，無論是在鋼鐵市場，還是在廢鋼市場，都有客戶準備好立即加載額外的產能。這當然是在汽車市場。我還要提到我們的 ag 和我們的煤炭網絡，我們相信，它們也將受益於流動性和持續需求的增加。

On the intermodal side, it's really a demand story. There's been what I would call a tremendous amount of demand destruction out there in the general economy, and we're seeing that manifest itself in our containerized volume opportunities. But look, we're not sitting on our hands here. We got, like I said, the best team in the industry working right now to figure out how to deliver more value for our customers in the form of additional lanes and additional products and services that we can successfully execute in the marketplace. And we'll be ready when the market rotates here.

在多式聯運方面，這確實是一個需求故事。在整體經濟中，我稱之為巨大的需求破壞，我們看到這在我們的容器化容量機會中得到體現。但是你看，我們並沒有袖手旁觀。就像我說的，我們擁有業內最好的團隊，現在正在努力弄清楚如何以我們可以在市場上成功執行的額外通道以及額外產品和服務的形式為我們的客戶提供更多價值。當市場在這裡輪換時，我們會做好準備。

And you and Paul are also resizing the intermodal network based on current demand.

你和 Paul 也在根據當前需求調整多式聯運網絡的規模。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Look, it's not a question of when the volume and the demand from the U.S. consumers are going to recover. It's when it happens, right? And so that's part of our strategy is to invest through the downturn so that we're there for the upside.

看，這不是美國消費者的數量和需求何時恢復的問題。就是它發生的時候，對吧？因此，我們戰略的一部分是在經濟低迷時期進行投資，這樣我們就可以上行。

Yes. And that's what makes it, frankly, so important that we've been able to insulate for the most part the intermodal network from many of the disruptions that we've seen here today. And that's very purposeful on our part because we want our customers to have confidence as they go to their customers and sell Norfolk Southern's value.

是的。坦率地說，這就是它如此重要的原因，以至於我們能夠在很大程度上將多式聯運網絡與我們今天在這裡看到的許多中斷隔離開來。這對我們來說是非常有目的的，因為我們希望我們的客戶在向客戶推銷 Norfolk Southern 的價值時充滿信心。

Mark, I think there was a...

馬克，我想有一個...

Yes. So just real quick on fuel. We did have a lag benefit. While fuel prices are coming down, we had a lag benefit on the surcharge that provided some tailwind to us in this quarter, but that is going to quickly diminish and turn into headwinds as we go through the back of the year if the fuel curves hold true.

是的。所以只是真正快速的燃料。我們確實有滯後收益。雖然燃油價格正在下降，但我們在本季度為我們提供了一些順風的附加費帶來了滯後收益，但如果燃油曲線保持不變，那麼隨著我們在今年年底的到來，這種優勢將迅速減弱並變成逆風真的。

Our next question is from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

I think you addressed this in some ways, but I'm just curious, the derailment and the impact on the various service metrics. Has it had an impact on the marketing side of the equation as you go out and try to sell business? And then sort of similarly, in terms of the operational stuff you guys were trying to do as you went into this year around TOP|SPG, et cetera, has had an impact on some of the initiatives away from the remediation efforts.

我認為您以某些方式解決了這個問題，但我只是好奇，出軌以及對各種服務指標的影響。當您出去嘗試銷售業務時，它是否對等式的營銷方面產生了影響？然後有點類似，就你們今年圍繞 TOP|SPG 等所做的操作而言，已經對補救工作之外的一些舉措產生了影響。

Speaking to our -- to the customer side of the business, there's -- we really have not had a more supportive group of constituents out there than our customers. They want us to get the network back up and running. They know that we're doing the right thing, not only for East Palestine but for them. And frankly, we are looking forward to delivering that additional capacity to them very quickly.

對我們的業務客戶方面來說，我們真的沒有比我們的客戶更有支持力的選民群體了。他們希望我們讓網絡恢復運行。他們知道我們在做正確的事，不僅是為了東巴勒斯坦，也是為了他們。坦率地說，我們期待很快為他們提供額外的容量。

Jordan, both Ed and I referenced this in our prepared remarks. We certainly appreciate the support and the outreach from our customers through this. And they're proud of our response. They see what we're doing. They know what we're made of. They know that we do what we say we're going to do, and they're seeing us follow through with that. And so we're going to come out of this stronger and better as a result. Paul, do you want to talk about the interaction between our operating plan and current service?

喬丹，埃德和我在我們準備好的評論中都提到了這一點。我們當然感謝客戶通過此提供的支持和外展服務。他們為我們的回應感到自豪。他們看到我們在做什麼。他們知道我們是由什麼構成的。他們知道我們會按照我們所說的去做，而且他們會看到我們堅持到底。因此，我們最終會變得更強大、更好。保羅，你想談談我們的運營計劃和當前服務之間的互動嗎？

Oh, absolutely. We're seeing improvements over the last few weeks. And I want to go back to the point that was made around TOP|SPG. TOP|SPG was implemented as a simpler, more executable plan that will provide us a quicker path to improving service, especially when we have major service interruptions. We've seen strong improvements in our intermodal franchise as of late, building on the momentum out of the TOP|SPG implementation last year that I referenced.

哦，當然。我們在過去幾週看到了改進。我想回到圍繞 TOP|SPG 提出的觀點。 TOP|SPG 是作為一個更簡單、更可執行的計劃實施的，它將為我們提供改善服務的更快途徑，尤其是當我們遇到重大服務中斷時。在我提到的去年 TOP|SPG 實施的勢頭基礎上，我們最近看到我們的多式聯運特許經營權有了很大的改善。

Again, right now, this is all about pent-up demand and inventory across the network in our merchandise space, we're going to continue to work after it.

同樣，現在，這完全是關於我們商品空間中整個網絡的被壓抑的需求和庫存，我們將繼續努力。

Our next question is from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Maybe to follow up with Ed first. You mentioned you had some stronger-than-expected results both in coal and intermodal ARPU. Wondering if you could give some thoughts on that as both of those clearly we have some pretty distinct factors and tailwinds that have been affected them more recently in terms of the export market and the storage fees.

也許先跟進 Ed。你提到你在煤炭和多式聯運 ARPU 方面取得了一些好於預期的結果。想知道您是否可以就此提出一些想法，因為這兩者顯然我們有一些非常不同的因素和順風最近在出口市場和倉儲費方面影響了它們。

And then, Alan, maybe you can just give us a sense of the timing for some of these other public hearings or maybe mile markers that we should be keeping in mind for the NTSB and their investigation, the public hearing of East Palestine, [takes the review], things that are pretty much unprecedented. But maybe it still be helpful to hear if there's any sort of time line we should keep on our calendars in terms of when the next updates for these investigations are expected or at least what we should consider the next sort of update when it comes to those things, not just the numbers that you're recording, but the more public-facing side of it.

然後，艾倫，也許你可以讓我們了解一些其他公開聽證會的時間，或者我們應該記住的里程碑，以便 NTSB 及其調查，東巴勒斯坦的公開聽證會，[需要審查]，這幾乎是前所未有的事情。但也許聽聽我們是否應該在我們的日曆上保留任何類型的時間表，關於這些調查的下一次更新預計何時，或者至少我們應該考慮下一次更新的時間，這可能仍然有幫助事情，不僅僅是你記錄的數字，還有它更面向公眾的一面。

I think that might be a record for nesting questions. All right, Brian. Let's talk about coal first. We're still seeing strength in pricing, but all the indices have come off the recent highs. And as you know, a lot of our performance is predicated off those forward curves. [Low-balled] at 250-ish and API is about [140], U.S. met coal forward curves still have the price above $200 throughout at least the third quarter. So we're feeling pretty good there. I think the real story is on the demand and supply side. We know that China is reopening to Australian coal that's going to revert some trade flows. (inaudible) is ending, which will mean stronger Australian supply will come back, but U.S. net production is increasing 5.4 metric tons. That's new mines and incremental production. And I think most of those tons are going to move export.

我認為這可能是嵌套問題的記錄。好吧，布賴恩。先說煤。我們仍然看到定價強勁，但所有指數均已脫離近期高位。如您所知，我們的很多表現都取決於這些遠期曲線。 [低估] 在 250 左右，API 約為 [140]，至少在第三季度，美國煤炭遠期曲線的價格仍高於 200 美元。所以我們在那裡感覺很好。我認為真正的故事是在需求和供應方面。我們知道中國正在對澳大利亞煤炭重新開放，這將恢復一些貿易流量。 （聽不清）即將結束，這意味著澳大利亞供應將恢復強勁，但美國淨產量增加 5.4 公噸。那就是新礦山和增量生產。我認為這些噸中的大部分將用於出口。

On the demand side, we're still seeing limited spot demand, but European production has increased about 14% month-over-month in February, and that's due to blast furnaces cranking back up again. And the met coal exports from the U.S. are forecast to increase about 7.5%. Now we can be bullish or we could be bearish about China. I prefer to be bullish. The Chinese manufacturing PMI index came in above 52%. That's the highest reading in 2 years. So I believe that there is some demand there. We know that there's healthy demand from the auto sector. So we feel good about coal going forward.

在需求方面，我們仍然看到現貨需求有限，但 2 月份歐洲產量環比增長約 14%，這是由於高爐再次開工。預計美國的冶煉煤出口量將增長約 7.5%。現在我們可以看漲也可以看跌中國。我更喜歡看漲。中國製造業PMI指數超過52%。這是兩年來的最高讀數。所以我相信那裡有一些需求。我們知道汽車行業有健康的需求。因此，我們對未來的煤炭前景感到滿意。

On the intermodal side, there's no doubt there's a headwind from the storage piece and as I noted in the prepared remarks, we're seeing those markets -- excuse me, those congestion charges unwind even faster than we expected. Even though we predicted a year ago that they were going to unwind faster, so as those normalize, that's good for volume, as I noted on the IPI side. And think about it this way, for our international volume to grow 9%, that was freight that was moving on the highway last year. And we talked a lot last year about how it was going to revert to the mean when markets normalize, and that's what we're seeing right now.

在多式聯運方面，毫無疑問存儲部分存在逆風，正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們看到了這些市場——對不起，這些擁堵費的取消速度比我們預期的還要快。儘管我們在一年前預測它們會更快地放鬆，因此隨著它們正常化，這對交易量有利，正如我在 IPI 方面所指出的那樣。這樣想，我們的國際貨運量增長了 9%，這是去年在高速公路上行駛的貨運量。去年我們談了很多關於當市場正常化時它將如何恢復到均值的問題，這就是我們現在所看到的。

Brian, with respect to hearings, the NTSB has announced it may conduct a field hearing this summer, as you noted. That date has not yet been finalized. We don't really have anything else scheduled at this point, but that doesn't mean others won't pop up. I met with the chair of the NTSB just last week and committed our full cooperation with their investigation. And you saw as soon as the NTSB released its preliminary results, we initiated a 6-point safety plan. And I'll also note that I've been in D.C. multiple occasions with our elected officials and with our regulators, offering my full-throated support for many of the provisions in the rail safety bills that are out there.

Brian，關於聽證會，NTSB 已宣布可能會在今年夏天舉行現場聽證會，正如你所指出的。該日期尚未最終確定。目前我們真的沒有任何其他安排，但這並不意味著其他人不會彈出。就在上週，我會見了 NTSB 主席，並承諾全力配合他們的調查。你看到 NTSB 發布初步結果後，我們立即啟動了 6 點安全計劃。我還會注意到，我曾多次與我們當選的官員和我們的監管機構一起在華盛頓特區，為現有的鐵路安全法案中的許多條款提供全力支持。

We are going to take and we have taken an industry-leading role in advancing these safety initiatives, and we embrace that role.

我們將要並且已經在推進這些安全舉措方面發揮了行業領先的作用，並且我們欣然接受這一角色。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. Okay. We will come back to him. And our next question will be from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。好的。我們會回到他身邊。我們的下一個問題將來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Congratulations on a challenging quarter. I've only got 1 question. Everyone is trying to figure out is this a recession? Is this not a recession? Are we heading into a recession? There's a lot of anomalies in your data because of the single track that you're running in a key part of your line and the effect that's having on traffic. But I'd love to hear your view in terms of what's the macro? Where do you believe we're headed? And then kind of how do we back out the effect of your remediation efforts on your own traffic volumes here?

祝賀一個充滿挑戰的季度。我只有 1 個問題。每個人都在試圖弄清楚這是經濟衰退嗎？這不是經濟衰退嗎？我們正在走向衰退嗎？由於您在線路的關鍵部分運行的單一軌道及其對交通的影響，您的數據中存在很多異常情況。但我很想听聽您對什麼是宏觀的看法？你認為我們要去哪裡？然後我們如何取消您的補救措施對您自己的流量的影響？

Ed, you're about as tight with our customers as can be. Why don't you talk about what you're hearing?

埃德，你對我們的客戶盡可能地親密。你為什麼不談談你聽到的？

Sure. I think the one word that describes it best is murkiness, and quite frankly, it doesn't matter whether you're on the consumer side of the coin or on the industrial side, there is a clear line of sight, I think, on the industrial markets for a quarter or 2 of demand. We see that clearly. We also see clearly that there is further deterioration in the truckload markets right now. The real question is the second half of the year. And you have heard from other calls and other entities that probably their outlook has changed somewhat, particularly on the consumer side. But we know that there's still pent-up demand in many of these industrial markets.

當然。我認為最能描述它的詞是模糊，坦率地說，無論你是站在硬幣的消費端還是工業端，都有一條清晰的視線，我認為，工業市場四分之一或 2 的需求。我們清楚地看到這一點。我們還清楚地看到，目前卡車市場進一步惡化。真正的問題是今年下半年。你從其他電話和其他實體那裡聽說，他們的前景可能有所改變，尤其是在消費者方面。但我們知道，許多這些工業市場仍然存在被壓抑的需求。

So I am with you in terms of there's a lot of cross currents out there and a tremendous amount of, again, murkiness, but I think the one thing I want to reassure you of is we are positioning ourselves to be ready when these markets do turn and they will turn.

所以我同意你的觀點，那裡有很多交叉電流和大量的，再次，陰暗，但我想我想向你保證的一件事是我們正在準備好在這些市場發生時做好準備轉身，他們就會轉身。

And we will come back to Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們將與瑞銀一起回到 Tom Wadewitz。

Mark, I wanted to ask you if you could help us think about operating ratio. You've got a lot of moving parts right now. It seems pretty clear when you look at second half maybe or beyond June, you could see some help from the network being more fluid. But how do we think about maybe seasonal pattern in OR relative to what's normal if you think about 2Q versus 1Q? Or if you assume stability in volume or some pickup in volume, how do you think about it in the second half, given that you've got storage charges revenue per car maybe in export? Just a lot of moving parts, but any thoughts on OR would be helpful.

馬克，我想問你是否可以幫助我們考慮運營比率。你現在有很多活動部件。當您查看下半年或 6 月以後時，您似乎很清楚，您可以看到網絡更加流暢的一些幫助。但是，如果您考慮 2Q 與 1Q，我們如何考慮 OR 相對於正常情況的季節性模式？或者，如果您假設銷量穩定或銷量有所回升，考慮到您可能在出口中獲得每輛車的倉儲費收入，您如何看待下半年的情況？只有很多活動部件，但對 OR 的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Tom. So Look, I think inflation is going to be a consistent pressure point for our operating ratio throughout the year. So if we think about that as probably a primary headwind. I'd say that's probably fairly consistent throughout the year. Service has kind of emerged in the first quarter as kind of a bigger headwind, and we were expecting that really to start unwinding here. And the reality is, it may continue to be a headwind for another quarter before that starts to flip and become a tailwind in the second half, assuming service does get back to where we know it should be kind of where we were in that January time frame. Let's not forget we really did have a very good January and the pain we're seeing here in the quarter is really a result of just February and March.

是的。謝謝你的問題，湯姆。所以看，我認為通貨膨脹將成為我們全年營業比率的持續壓力點。因此，如果我們認為這可能是一個主要的逆風。我想說這一年可能相當一致。服務在第一季度出現了一種更大的逆風，我們期待它真正開始在這裡放鬆。現實情況是，在下半年開始翻轉並成為順風之前，它可能會繼續成為另一個季度的逆風，假設服務確實回到了我們知道它應該是我們在 1 月份的位置框架。別忘了我們確實在 1 月份過得非常好，我們在本季度看到的痛苦實際上只是 2 月和 3 月的結果。

I do believe that we get some volume in the back half of the year, that will represent some tailwind and then I think the third component to bear in mind is fuel, as touched upon earlier, there's been a tailwind here in the first quarter. It might be a modest tailwind in the second quarter. And again, if the fuel curves hold constant, it will become more of a headwind in the back half.

我確實相信我們會在今年下半年獲得一些銷量，這將代表一些順風，然後我認為要記住的第三個組成部分是燃料，正如之前提到的那樣，第一季度這裡有順風。這可能是第二季度的適度順風。而且，如果燃料曲線保持不變，後半部分將變得更加逆風。

Our next question is from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So just a couple of follow-ups here. Just on the settlement itself, is the message from you that the accrual that you made in 1Q is like the high watermark for how much it's going to cost you and could potentially come down as you get the insurance claims? Or kind of do you think that as the settlements are kind of further legal action or something takes place over the next several years kind of that number could go up. Just trying to mention what [in terms of] number does over time. And also, I think you guys have been the kind of biggest proponents of using mixed freight trains of probably any of the U.S. [castle] or railroads. Do you think your ability to run that is going to be slightly diminished kind of post this acumen?

所以這裡只有幾個後續行動。就結算本身而言，您是否傳達了這樣的信息，即您在 1Q 中取得的應計收益就像高水位線一樣，說明您將花費多少，並且可能會隨著您獲得保險索賠而下降？或者你是否認為，由於和解是一種進一步的法律行動，或者在未來幾年內發生了一些事情，這個數字可能會上升。只是想提一下 [in terms of] number 隨著時間的推移會發生什麼。而且，我認為你們一直是使用美國 [城堡] 或鐵路的混合貨運列車的最大支持者。你認為你的跑步能力會在這種敏銳度之後略有下降嗎？

Ravi, I think Mark was pretty clear that there are some moving parts in our estimate. There are some things that we know that are going to hit that have not been estimated. That includes additional charges. It also includes the potential for insurance claims and also recoveries from other third parties. What we've given you now is what we're able to accrue.

Ravi，我認為 Mark 非常清楚我們的估算中有一些變動的部分。有些事情我們知道會發生，但尚未估計。這包括額外費用。它還包括保險索賠的可能性以及從其他第三方追回的款項。我們現在給你的是我們能夠積累的。

With respect to our mix freight, our new train marshalling rules, which have really enhanced the use of DP are going to allow us to leverage that and drive productivity into that network.

關於我們的混合貨運，我們新的火車編組規則確實增強了 DP 的使用，這將使我們能夠利用它並提高該網絡的生產力。

Our next question is from Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

How should we think about headcount sequentially sort of as we move throughout the year? And you mentioned your below minimum staffing levels in a good part of your network. And then I think before you mentioned this time around, even in the downturn, you're going to think about furloughs a lot differently than you have in the past. I would just like to get a little bit of color on that.

我們應該如何按順序考慮員工人數，就像我們全年變動一樣？您在網絡的很大一部分中提到了低於最低人員配備水平。然後我想在你這次提到之前，即使在經濟低迷時期，你對休假的看法也會與過去大不相同。我只想在上面加一點顏色。

Well, Jason, as we talked about, as we articulated our unique vision for the industry, we are going to invest throughout a downturn because we want to make sure we're there for the upturn. It's not a question of, if demand returns, it's only a question of when. And we're taking a long-term approach. That's the right thing to do for our shareholders and our customers and our employees and the communities we serve. You want to add a little bit more color on headcount, Mark?

好吧，傑森，正如我們所說的那樣，當我們闡明我們對該行業的獨特願景時，我們將在整個低迷時期進行投資，因為我們想確保我們在好轉的時候就在那裡。這不是需求是否恢復的問題，只是何時恢復的問題。我們正在採取長期方法。這對我們的股東、我們的客戶、我們的員工以及我們所服務的社區來說都是正確的做法。馬克，你想在人數上增加一點色彩嗎？

Well, yes, I think you see that we've got some trajectory in Paul's slide on our T&E count. We still have over 900 of conductor trainees. And as Paul mentioned, we've got a fair amount of our key locations that are still below our targeted levels. And we want to get to resilient levels in our locations here because we're feeling the pain of not being resilient. We made a promise to be resilient in our new strategy, and we're committed to get there. Unfortunately, we're not there yet, and that's part of why you're seeing us deal with the service challenge here again here in the second quarter.

嗯，是的，我想你看到我們在 Paul 的 T&E 計數幻燈片中有一些軌跡。我們還有 900 多名指揮實習生。正如保羅所提到的，我們有相當多的關鍵地點仍低於我們的目標水平。我們希望在我們這裡的位置達到彈性水平，因為我們感受到了沒有彈性的痛苦。我們承諾在我們的新戰略中保持彈性，我們致力於實現這一目標。不幸的是，我們還沒有，這就是為什麼你看到我們在第二季度再次在這裡應對服務挑戰的部分原因。

So there's more hiring to do. I think you'll start to see once we get to the levels we determine are appropriate at all of our locations we'll bring our trainee counts down probably by more than half of where they are today, and that will help us just handle normal attrition. But remember, the targeted numbers for headcount really is a dynamic number. And it does depend on the volume outlook and the demand outlook by area, by commodity type, by lane. So there's really a lot more sophisticated modeling than ever we put into trying to determine what our appropriate levels are. So I think you will continue to see it go up throughout the course of the year.

所以還有更多的招聘工作要做。我想你會開始看到，一旦我們達到我們確定適合我們所有地點的水平，我們將使我們的受訓人員人數減少可能比今天減少一半以上，這將有助於我們處理正常情況減員。但請記住，員工人數的目標數字確實是一個動態數字。它確實取決於按區域、按商品類型、按車道劃分的數量前景和需求前景。因此，我們投入了比以往任何時候都更複雜的建模來嘗試確定我們的適當級別。所以我認為你會在全年繼續看到它上升。

Our next question is from Justin Long with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Justin Long。

I wanted to circle back to intermodal. If I look at your domestic intermodal volumes, they've declined sequentially for 3 consecutive quarters. And obviously, there's weakness in demand that you've talked about, and that's well known. But what's your confidence that first quarter is the bottom in terms of domestic intermodal volumes? Or is there a potential we see sequential pressure continue into 2Q?

我想回到多式聯運。如果我看一下你們的國內多式聯運量，它們已經連續三個季度連續下降。顯然，您談到的需求疲軟，這是眾所周知的。但是，就國內多式聯運量而言，第一季度是底部，您有什麼信心？或者我們是否有可能看到連續壓力持續到第二季度？

I think it's really going to be predicated by what happens in the overall economy, particularly that consumer sector. We continue to get very strong reports from our customers regarding their ability to win bids going forward. So we're bullish on that part. I think you've heard in other places, though, that many times those bids, the volumes are not manifest themselves at the rate that they were advertised so to speak, because the demand is not there. We're keeping a very close eye on the inventory sales ratio, which is about normal now, there's still maybe a little bit of replenishment to do in certain sectors, but we're close to normal on that front. So we're watching very closely what's happening in the macro economy, I firmly believe that as the market rotates, we will be very well positioned to take advantage of that first [hint] of growth that comes out of the gate.

我認為這真的取決於整體經濟中發生的事情，尤其是消費領域。我們繼續從客戶那裡收到關於他們未來中標能力的非常有力的報告。所以我們看好那部分。不過，我想你在其他地方聽說過，這些出價很多次，可以說，數量並沒有按照廣告宣傳的速度出現，因為那裡沒有需求。我們正在密切關注庫存銷售率，該比率目前處於正常水平，某些行業可能仍需要進行一些補貨，但我們在這方面已接近正常水平。因此，我們正在密切關注宏觀經濟中正在發生的事情，我堅信，隨著市場的輪動，我們將處於有利地位，可以利用剛出現的增長的第一個[暗示]。

Yes, we're aligned with the best channel partners in the industry. And they're investing for growth right now through this soft patch. So we're going to grow with them. And Ed, you were able to take share from truck and the international market.

是的，我們與業內最好的渠道合作夥伴保持一致。他們現在正在通過這個軟補丁投資增長。所以我們要和他們一起成長。埃德，你能夠從卡車和國際市場上獲得份額。

No, that's exactly right. I would also say we're putting a lot of emphasis on the quality of our intermodal product at the terminal level. And we are also focused on first and final mile markets and how we can deliver additional value there. So we're very well positioned, we believe, to come out of this as the market rotates.

不，完全正確。我還要說的是，我們非常重視終端級別的多式聯運產品質量。我們還專注於第一英里和最後一英里市場，以及我們如何能夠在那裡提供額外的價值。因此，我們相信，隨著市場的輪動，我們已經做好了擺脫困境的準備。

Our next question is from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

This is James McGarragle, I'm on for Walter this morning. I wanted to ask a question though related to the new Scout Motors EV plant in South Carolina. Are you able to discuss any other opportunities like this that you have in the pipeline? And now looking a little longer term, what's the team's strategy to bring more of this type of business to the railroad. Is it utilizing excess real estate or selling and eventually improved service product? Or anything else you can speak to?

我是 James McGarragle，今天早上我要找 Walter。我想問一個與南卡羅來納州新的 Scout Motors EV 工廠有關的問題。您能否討論您正在籌備中的任何其他類似機會？現在從長遠來看，團隊將更多此類業務引入鐵路的戰略是什麼。是利用多餘的不動產，還是銷售最終改進的服務產品？或者還有什麼可以聊的嗎？

Sure. Absolutely. We have over 600 active projects in our pipeline. And while we can't talk about really any of those, many of them under NDA, what I can tell you is that we are really well positioned to serve the EV and battery ecosystems including support for additional battery manufacturing and as they search for plant sites for manufacturing. The recent Scout Motors assembly plant and proposed reopening of a lithium mine nearby, present some more unique opportunities for us.

當然。絕對地。我們有 600 多個活躍項目在籌備中。雖然我們不能真正談論其中的任何一個，但其中許多都在 NDA 之下，但我可以告訴你的是，我們確實有能力為電動汽車和電池生態系統提供服務，包括支持額外的電池製造以及他們尋找工廠製造場所。最近的 Scout Motors 裝配廠和提議重新開放附近的鋰礦，為我們提供了一些更獨特的機會。

There's 3 opportunities really for us to participate in the EV space. One is moving raw materials, one is moving components and one is moving the finished vehicles. We're actively working on all 3 of those segments.

我們真正有 3 個機會參與 EV 領域。一種是移動原材料，一種是移動組件，一種是移動成品車輛。我們正在積極致力於所有這三個部分。

Our next question is from David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛弗農。

So Mark, can you talk a little bit about the trajectory for cost per employees to kind of go throughout the year, the $140 million level, is that a good number to be modeling off of and then, Ed, if you wouldn't mind, maybe -- I want to take a run at asking you to mention how much the accessorial and surcharge revenue headwind could be inside of the intermodal ARPU. I just want to make sure we're not confusing the minus 1 in ARPU ex fuel with core price as opposed to accessorial. And if you could help us to mention that, that would be helpful.

所以馬克，你能談談全年人均成本的軌跡嗎，1.4 億美元的水平，是一個很好的建模數字，然後，埃德，如果你不介意的話，也許——我想試一試，請你提一下多式聯運 ARPU 中的附加費和附加費收入逆風有多少。我只是想確保我們不會混淆 ARPU ex fuel 的負 1 與核心價格而不是附加價格。如果你能幫助我們提及這一點，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. David, real quick, on the comp and ben per employee. First quarter it was pretty much like I had guided last quarter that $35,000 range. And I do expect it to kind of go sideways from here throughout the course of the year. We will have a step up in the third quarter just from the wage increase that happens for the agreement folks, another 4% here in the third quarter, but that should be mitigated by a wind-down and in some of these service-related costs. So I'd say it's going to be in that $35,000 and change territory throughout the year, per quarter.

是的。大衛，非常快，每個員工的薪酬和本。第一季度幾乎就像我上個季度指導的 35,000 美元的範圍。而且我確實希望它在整個一年中都會從這裡橫盤整理。我們將在第三季度從協議人員的工資增長中有所提高，第三季度在這裡再增長 4%，但這應該通過逐漸減少和其中一些與服務相關的成本來緩解.所以我想說它會在 35,000 美元，並且全年每個季度都會改變區域。

Yes. And on the (inaudible) side, we made it pretty clear I think we expect year-over-year declines in accessorial revenue. It's a really (inaudible) be a significant headwind to revenue or ARPU less fuel for the remainder of '23 and that's going to be offset by some positive impacts from price and volume, (inaudible) plan. And then beginning in '24, the revenue from accessorial charges is likely to be much more in line with what we've experienced pre-pandemic. First quarter, we took a significant step towards normalization, as I noted.

是的。在（聽不清）方面，我們非常明確地表示，我認為我們預計輔助收入將同比下降。在 23 年的剩餘時間裡，這確實（聽不清）對收入或 ARPU 減少燃料造成重大不利影響，這將被價格和數量（聽不清）計劃的一些積極影響所抵消。然後從 24 年開始，輔助費用的收入可能會更符合我們在大流行前所經歷的情況。正如我所指出的，第一季度，我們朝著正常化邁出了重要一步。

Our next question is from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Mark, on your Slide 7, when you lay out the OpEx components, I understand there's a lot of inflation associated with that. But is there any way to talk about some of the costs associated with just running the one line at a reduced speed from the beginning of March. What we should think about that cost component to be in the second quarter as you go through June? And do you think that those will really be ring-fenced then into the second quarter with kind of normalization starting in early 3Q?

馬克，在你的幻燈片 7 上，當你佈置 OpEx 組件時，我知道有很多與之相關的通貨膨脹。但是，有什麼方法可以談談從 3 月初開始以較低的速度運行一條線路的一些相關成本。當你經歷六月時，我們應該如何考慮第二季度的成本構成？您是否認為這些真的會在進入第二季度時真正被圍起來，並在第三季度初開始正常化？

Yes, Jon, I'd say the cost related to the service disruption we've had, they show up a little bit in the comp and ben with regard to recrews and overtime, they show up in the purchase services as well. Part of that is related to drayage costs that we have to incur, taxis and we've even had to enter into some short-term land leases just to relieve some congestion in the terminal.

是的，喬恩，我想說的是與我們所經歷的服務中斷相關的成本，它們在補償和本方面出現了一點點，涉及到人員和加班，它們也出現在採購服務中。其中一部分與我們必須承擔的拖運成本、出租車有關，我們甚至不得不簽訂一些短期土地租賃合同，以緩解航站樓的一些擁堵。

So that's kind of where you see that play out. And I think that will persist into the second quarter and diminish in the second half. And similarly, in materials is kind of where I'd say the bigger impact was, and that's related to the locomotive restorations that we've had to do here, just to try to provide some immediate relief to the yards and to our line of road to deal with this disruption. So that, again, will probably -- we'll probably still have some incremental cost of materials in that second quarter and start to diminish in the third and fourth quarter.

所以這就是你看到的地方。而且我認為這將持續到第二季度並在下半年減少。同樣，在材料方面，我認為影響更大的地方是，這與我們必須在這裡進行的機車修復有關，只是試圖為院子和我們的生產線提供一些直接的緩解應對這種破壞的道路。因此，再次可能 - 我們可能在第二季度仍有一些增量材料成本，並在第三和第四季度開始減少。

Our next question is from Ari Rosa with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

So Alan, you mentioned that the crew is operating properly and there were no track defects in the East Palestine incident. Just curious to hear what do you think could have been done differently to avoid that incident? And then with the 6-point plan that you guys have proposed, just wanted to get a sense for what you think the costs are associated with that and kind of what the steps are moving forward. Is that included in the $387 million? Or is that a separate cost?

那麼艾倫，你提到東巴事件中機組人員操作正常，沒有出現軌道故障。只是想听聽您認為可以採取哪些不同的措施來避免該事件？然後根據你們提出的 6 點計劃，只是想了解你們認為與此相關的成本是什麼，以及前進的步驟是什麼。這包括在 3.87 億美元中嗎？或者這是一個單獨的成本？

Yes. Obviously, as CEO, I think about that every day. What could we have done better? What could we have done differently? And I asked my team in the immediate aftermath to come up with some solutions. As soon as we got the preliminary results of the NTSB report, you saw the 6-point Safety Plan, which included adding $200 million hot box detectors across our network. And I'll note that the spacing of our hot box detectors was already amongst the lowest in the industry. But you know what, we can do better. We're augmenting that. And so we're adding about 25% more hot box detectors.

是的。顯然，作為首席執行官，我每天都在考慮這個問題。我們可以做得更好嗎？我們可以做些什麼不同的事情？我立即要求我的團隊提出一些解決方案。我們一收到 NTSB 報告的初步結果，您就看到了 6 點安全計劃，其中包括在我們的網絡中增加 2 億美元的熱箱探測器。我會注意到，我們的熱箱探測器的間距已經是業內最低的了。但你知道嗎，我們可以做得更好。我們正在擴大這一點。因此，我們增加了大約 25% 的熱盒探測器。

We're partnering with the Georgia Tech Research Institute on next-generation machine visioning, inspection portals. And the first one is going to go up outside of East Palestine. So there are a couple of things that we're doing there. They're all to enhance safety because we're going to continue to focus on doing better. That's our goal.

我們正在與佐治亞理工學院合作開發下一代機器視覺、檢查門戶。第一個將上升到東巴勒斯坦以外。所以我們正在做一些事情。它們都是為了提高安全性，因為我們將繼續專注於做得更好。這就是我們的目標。

And Ari, the cost related to that 6-point plan, it's really largely the capital associated with those incremental hot box detectors, which we said would be in that $50 million neighborhood over the next couple of years. So not a meaningful impact to our overall CapEx budget.

而 Ari，與那個 6 點計劃相關的成本，實際上主要是與那些增量熱箱探測器相關的資本，我們說這將在未來幾年內達到 5000 萬美元。因此對我們的整體資本支出預算沒有有意義的影響。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Alan Shaw for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將電話轉回給 Alan Shaw 先生以徵求意見。

Yes. Thank you for your interest in Norfolk Southern and your time this morning. Have a good morning.

是的。感謝您對諾福克南部的關注和今天早上的時間。祝你早上好。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。