Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Norfolk Southern Corporation's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加諾福克南方公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Luke Nichols, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Nichols, you may now begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹投資者關係高級總監 Luke Nichols。謝謝你，尼科爾斯先生，你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or future performance of Norfolk Southern Corporation, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results.

謝謝大家，大家早安。請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款做出某些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及諾福克南方公司的未來事件或未來業績，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性，可能與實際結果有重大差異。

Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full disclosure of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important.

請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告，以全面揭露我們認為最重要的風險和不確定性。

Our presentation slides are available at norfolksouthern.com in the Investors section, along with our reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures.

我們的簡報投影片可在norfolksouthern.com 的投資者部分中找到，以及我們今天使用的任何非公認會計準則衡量標準與可比公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳。

Turning to Slide 3. It's now my distinct honor to introduce Norfolk Southern's President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan Shaw.

轉向幻燈片 3。現在我非常榮幸地介紹諾福克南方航空的總裁兼首席執行官艾倫·肖 (Alan Shaw)。

Good morning, and welcome to our discussion of third quarter earnings. Here with me are Mark George, our Chief Financial Officer; Paul Duncan, our Chief Operating Officer; and Ed Elkins, our Chief Marketing Officer.

早安，歡迎來到我們關於第三季財報的討論。和我在一起的是我們的財務長馬克喬治 (Mark George)； Paul Duncan，我們的營運長；以及我們的首席行銷長 Ed Elkins。

I want to begin by thanking my Norfolk Southern colleagues for working safely, serving our customers and driving our strategic plan forward. When we charted a new course in the industry, we understood unlocking the full potential of our powerful franchise would require an enhanced focus on resilience and operational excellence across every aspect of our business.

首先，我要感謝我的諾福克南方航空公司的同事安全工作、服務我們的客戶並推動我們的戰略計劃向前發展。當我們在行業中製定新的路線時，我們明白要釋放我們強大的特許經營權的全部潛力，需要更加關注我們業務各個方面的彈性和卓越運營。

Our transformation into a more customer-centric operations-driven service organization reveals opportunities to strengthen our franchise. We saw some of that in the third quarter with 2 technology outages. The first on August 28, was caused by a defect in the vendor software. The second on September 29, involved a firmware maintenance issue. These incidents were unrelated and were not cybersecurity issues.

我們向更加以客戶為中心、營運驅動的服務組織的轉型揭示了加強我們的特許經營權的機會。我們在第三季度看到了其中的一些情況，出現了兩次技術中斷。第一次發生在 8 月 28 日，是由供應商軟體的缺陷引起的。第二次發生在 9 月 29 日，涉及韌體維護問題。這些事件互不相關，也不是網路安全問題。

We are taking measures to prevent a reoccurrence and importantly, we are not stopping there. We have launched a top-to-bottom review of our technology infrastructure with the assistance of leading third-party experts. Operations driven means pursuing operational excellence in every aspect of our business and that includes IT.

我們正在採取措施防止再次發生，重要的是，我們不會就此止步。在領先的第三方專家的協助下，我們對我們的技術基礎設施進行了自上而下的審查。營運驅動意味著在我們業務的各個方面（包括 IT）追求卓越營運。

Demonstrating our progress in building resiliency, our strengthened operations leadership, enhanced operating plan and greater crew capacity, enabled us to manage the technology incidents with limited disruption to our customers and grow volume through the service recovery.

展示了我們在建立彈性方面取得的進展，我們加強了營運領導力，增強了營運計劃並提高了機組人員能力，使我們能夠在對客戶造成的干擾有限的情況下管理技術事件，並透過服務恢復來增加數量。

Throughout the third quarter, we continue to do exactly what we said we'd do, when we announced our strategy. We are making smart investments in safe, reliable and resilient service. Although the macroeconomic environment of abnormally low volumes is an unwelcome headwind, it has not changed our approach or diminished our confidence that our strategy is a better way forward. The market will recover, and we will be poised and leveraged to capture growth with strong incremental margins. Mark will provide detail on other cost drivers in the quarter, including fuel prices and higher labor costs as a result of last year's historic wage increase for our craft colleagues.

在整個第三季度，我們繼續嚴格按照我們宣布戰略時所說的去做。我們正在對安全、可靠和有彈性的服務進行明智的投資。儘管成交量異常低迷的宏觀經濟環境是一種不受歡迎的逆風，但它並沒有改變我們的方法，也沒有削弱我們對我們的策略是更好的前進方向的信心。市場將會復甦，我們將做好準備並利用槓桿以強勁的增量利潤來成長。馬克將提供本季度其他成本驅動因素的詳細信息，包括燃料價格和由於去年我們的工藝同事的歷史性工資增長而導致的更高的勞動力成本。

These costs combined with investments in our strategy and the backdrop of historically low volumes in the quarter contributed to significant pressure on our operating ratio, which deteriorated year-over-year and sequentially. We are clearly not satisfied with these results. We will recover from these short-term impacts to our operating ratio.

這些成本加上我們的策略投資以及本季銷售處於歷史低點的背景，對我們的營運比率造成了巨大壓力，營運比率逐年惡化。我們顯然對這些結果並不滿意。我們將從這些對我們的營運比率的短期影響中恢復過來。

As we articulated when we launched our strategy, continuous productivity improvement is a core element of our balanced approach. We are committed to achieving and maintaining industry competitive margins over the long term.

正如我們在啟動策略時所闡述的那樣，持續提高生產力是我們平衡方法的核心要素。我們致力於長期實現並維持產業競爭優勢。

Our focus on productivity is unrelenting. Under the strong leadership of Paul and his team in Operations, we have an increasingly stable network with a high degree of plan compliance allowing us to iterate the plan for service and productivity. And as Paul will describe, we are reducing our pipeline of conductor trainees through year-end to more normal levels, among other steps, balanced against the challenges of the quarter. There were several encouraging developments that demonstrate progress on our strategy and point to growth and profit improvement in the quarters ahead.

我們對生產力的關注始終如一。在 Paul 和他的營運團隊的強大領導下，我們擁有一個日益穩定的網絡，並且具有高度的計劃合規性，使我們能夠迭代服務和生產力計劃。正如保羅將描述的那樣，我們正在將年底之前的指揮實習生管道減少到更正常的水平，以及其他措施，以平衡本季度的挑戰。一些令人鼓舞的進展表明我們的策略取得了進展，並預示著未來幾季的成長和利潤改善。

Notably, service in the third quarter improved both year-over-year and sequentially, allowing us to onboard more business. Volume improved as well and appears to have turned a corner with each of the last 4 weeks, running above 136,000 carloads. That's a level we haven't seen consistently since the second quarter of 2022. In part, this was a function of customers awarding us new business. Our customers see the commitment we are making to deliver more consistent, reliable service, and our marketing team is creating innovative solutions to amplify the value of that service even in a weak freight environment. Ed will talk more about this later.

值得注意的是，第三季的服務較去年同期都有所改善，使我們能夠開展更多業務。運量也有所改善，並且似乎在過去 4 週中每一周都出現了好轉，運量超過 136,000 輛車。這是自 2022 年第二季以來我們從未見過的水平。部分原因是客戶授予我們新業務。我們的客戶看到了我們為提供更一致、更可靠的服務所做的承諾，而我們的行銷團隊正在創建創新的解決方案，以擴大該服務的價值，即使在貨運環境疲軟的情況下也是如此。埃德稍後會詳細討論這一點。

In addition to service and volume gains, we delivered improvements in safety as well. Our mainline train accident rate is down more than 40% year-over-year as we strengthen our safety culture and performance. In East Palestine and the surrounding communities, we continue to deliver on our commitments. Mark will provide an update on costs associated with our ongoing efforts to make things right. I visit regularly as we make significant progress cleaning the site and investing in the community's future.

除了服務和銷售成長之外，我們還提高了安全性。隨著我們加強安全文化和績效，我們的幹線列車事故率年減了 40% 以上。在東巴勒斯坦和周邊社區，我們繼續履行我們的承諾。馬克將提供與我們持續努力糾正錯誤相關的最新成本資訊。當我們在清理場地和投資社區的未來方面取得重大進展時，我會定期訪問。

I'll now turn it over to Mark.

我現在把它交給馬克。

Thank you, Alan, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 5 with an update on our accruals related to the Eastern Ohio derailment. We are pleased to report that we will be completing soil removal from the derailment site shortly, but expect that there will be ongoing testing efforts to ensure continued safety of the air, soil and water through April of 2024. And as such, we accrued $118 million in Q3 to account for this time line extension. Additionally, we recorded another $70 million for legal and other costs incurred in the quarter. Of note, we did file our initial claim for reimbursement with our insurers during the third quarter, and we'll continue to file claims as costs accumulate. We did receive notification of our first reimbursement under our policy of $25 million and accordingly recognized this as an offset to the cost incurred in the third quarter. The cash was actually received last week.

謝謝艾倫，大家早安。我將從幻燈片 5 開始，介紹與俄亥俄州東部脫軌事件相關的應計費用的最新情況。我們很高興地報告，我們很快就會完成脫軌現場的土壤清除工作，但預計將持續進行測試工作，以確保到 2024 年 4 月空氣、土壤和水的持續安全。因此，我們累積了 118 美元第三季的100 萬美元將佔本次時間線的延長。此外，我們還記錄了本季發生的另外 7,000 萬美元的法律和其他費用。值得注意的是，我們確實在第三季向保險公司提出了最初的報銷索賠，隨著成本的累積，我們將繼續提出索賠。我們確實收到了根據我們的 2500 萬美元保單進行首次報銷的通知，並相應地將其視為對第三季度產生的成本的抵消。現金其實是上週收到的。

While we are encouraged by the speed of this initial reimbursement, there are dozens of parties sharing exposure at 10 layers in the insurance tower. So we expect this cost recovery process to be protracted. Also, of the $966 million recorded as expense thus far, just more than half has been paid through September 30th. Of the remaining $450 million, I'd expect roughly half to be spent in the fourth quarter and the rest to be spent in 2024.

雖然我們對初始報銷的速度感到鼓舞，但保險塔內的 10 層有數十方共享風險。因此，我們預計這一成本回收過程將是漫長的。此外，在迄今記錄為費用的 9.66 億美元中，截至 9 月 30 日僅支付了一半以上。在剩餘的 4.5 億美元中，我預計大約一半將在第四季支出，其餘的將在 2024 年支出。

I will remind you that this situation remains fluid, and we will continue working through these issues for many quarters to come. We expect that there will be additional costs that have not yet been incurred related to future settlements, fines and penalties as well as legal fees, and we cannot predict the amount at this time.

我要提醒您的是，這種情況仍然不穩定，我們將在未來的許多季度繼續解決這些問題。我們預計將會產生與未來和解、罰款和處罰以及法律費用相關的尚未產生的額外費用，目前我們無法預測特定金額。

Moving to Slide 6, where we illustrate the impact of these third quarter costs on our results. Our GAAP results are in the first row, while on row 2 we isolate the accounting to our Q3 financials related to the incident and our response. At the bottom of the chart, you'll note the comparisons of the adjusted financial results to the prior year. I'll be talking about our adjusted results for the remainder of the discussion.

轉到投影片 6，我們在其中說明了第三季成本對我們業績的影響。我們的 GAAP 結果位於第一行，而在第二行，我們將與事件和我們的反應相關的第三季財務數據隔離開來。在圖表底部，您會注意到調整後的財務結果與前一年的比較。我將在餘下的討論中討論我們的調整結果。

Revenues were down 11%. Adjusted operating expense was down modestly. The adjusted operating ratio for Q3 was 69.1%, which notably includes 270 basis points of headwind from net fuel price impacts. On an adjusted basis, operating income was down 28%. Net income and EPS were down 37% and 35%, respectively. But recall last year, we enjoyed a benefit from a state income tax change of $136 million distorting the year-over-year comparison.

收入下降 11%。調整後的營運費用小幅下降。第三季調整後的營運率為 69.1%，其中主要包括淨燃油價格影響帶來的 270 個基點的逆風。調整後的營業收入下降了 28%。淨利和每股收益分別下降 37% 和 35%。但回想一下去年，我們受益於 1.36 億美元的州所得稅變化，這扭曲了同比比較。

Let's turn to Slide 7 for an overview of our operating revenues. And it's a quick look at the drivers of the revenue change from last year in advance of Ed getting into the market details. The biggest driver in the year-over-year revenue decline is the meaningful reduction in fuel surcharge revenue. Volumes were down 2%, which equates to a $74 million revenue decline, and we are highlighting here the reduction in intermodal storage revenue of $71 million, as we are now back to more normal levels and will continue to have tough compares through Q1 of 2024.

讓我們轉向投影片 7 來概述我們的營業收入。在艾德介紹市場細節之前，我們可以快速了解去年收入變化的驅動因素。收入年減的最大推動因素是燃油附加費收入的大幅減少。銷量下降了2%，相當於收入下降了7400 萬美元，我們在此強調多式聯運存儲收入減少了7100 萬美元，因為我們現在已恢復到更正常的水平，並將在2024 年第一季繼續進行艱難的比較。

Ed will talk later about the traction we have on pricing as well as mix dynamics in the quarter that collectively inform the positive $27 million of rate mix and other.

Ed 稍後將討論我們在定價方面的吸引力以及本季的混合動態，這些動態共同影響了 2700 萬美元的利率組合和其他積極因素。

On Slide 8, let's drill into the operating expenses. Adjusted operating expenses for the quarter were down $19 million or 1% on a year-over-year basis. Fuel expense was down $94 million or 25%, driven mainly by lower fuel prices. Comp and Ben was down $20 million or 3% year-over-year as higher pay rates and employee levels were offset by a favorable comparison with Q3 last year from the $85 million charge we took related to the retroactive wage accruals.

在幻燈片 8 上，讓我們深入了解營運費用。該季度調整後營運費用年減 1,900 萬美元，即 1%。燃料費用下降了 9,400 萬美元，即 25%，主要是由於燃料價格下降。 Comp 和 Ben 年減 2,000 萬美元，或 3%，因為較高的工資率和員工水準被我們與追溯工資應計相關的 8,500 萬美元費用與去年第三季的有利比較所抵消。

Depreciation expense was up in line with our earlier guidance. Purchased services was up due to higher costs associated with engineering activities on our network as well as technology spend. The increase in materials and other was up $42 million and driven primarily by an adverse comp on a favorable legal settlement last year as well as higher consumption of materials for locomotive repairs. Property sales were also lower this quarter.

折舊費用的增加符合我們先前的指導。由於與我們網路上的工程活動以及技術支出相關的成本增加，購買的服務增加。材料及其他費用增加了 4,200 萬美元，主要是由於去年有利的法律​​和解帶來的不利影響以及機車維修材料消耗的增加。本季房地產銷售也有所下降。

Moving to Slide 9. While we expect costs related to the past service issues to begin unwinding in the third quarter, additional service challenges in the quarter resulted in a delay with only moderate easing. We expect the unwind to accelerate here in the fourth quarter. Now offsetting these fourth quarter savings will be an increase in incremental costs related to building resiliency in a couple of key areas that will pay dividends in the years ahead.

轉向幻燈片 9。雖然我們預計與過去的服務問題相關的成本將在第三季度開始緩解，但該季度的額外服務挑戰導致了延遲，僅適度放鬆。我們預計第四季的放鬆將加速。現在抵銷第四季度節省的費用將是與在幾個關鍵領域建立彈性相關的增量成本的增加，這些成本將在未來幾年帶來紅利。

Firstly, there are investments in the continuation of our hiring in locomotives in order to support both future growth and faster recoveries. Second, are the investments in our craft workforce, including the quality of life enhancements like paid sick leave. These investments overall should allow for the accommodation of higher volumes that will help cover these costs, along with more productivity.

首先，我們對繼續僱用機車進行投資，以支持未來的成長和更快的復甦。其次，是對工藝勞動力的投資，包括提高生活質量，例如帶薪病假。總體而言，這些投資應該能夠容納更大的產量，這將有助於支付這些成本，同時提高生產力。

On Slide 10, let's talk to a couple of P&L items below operating income. Other income was up $42 million in the quarter, driven by favorable returns from our company-owned life insurance. The adjusted effective tax rate was 22.7%, in line with what we normally guide.

在投影片 10 上，我們來討論營業收入下方的幾個損益項目。由於我們公司擁有的人壽保險的良好回報，本季其他收入增加了 4,200 萬美元。調整後的有效稅率為22.7%，與我們通常指導的一致。

And turning to free cash flow and shareholder distributions on Slide 11, through the first 9 months, free cash flow was $1.1 billion lower than prior year, with half due to derailment-related expenditures and the remainder from a combination of lower core operating results and higher CapEx. Shareholder distributions over the same 9 months were $1.4 billion, thanks to our solid dividend and continued share repurchase activity.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的自由現金流和股東分配，前 9 個月，自由現金流比去年同期減少 11 億美元，其中一半是由於與脫軌相關的支出，其餘則是核心運營業績下降和更高的資本支出。由於我們穩定的股利和持續的股票回購活動，過去 9 個月的股東分配額為 14 億美元。

I will remind that the citizen vote in Cincinnati to approve the proposed $1.6 billion purchase of the CSR asset will take place in November. So we are reserving capital capacity for that potential transaction, which would close in mid-March of 2024.

我要提醒大家的是，辛辛那提將於 11 月舉行公民投票，批准以 16 億美元購買 CSR 資產的提議。因此，我們正在為該潛在交易保留資本能力，該交易將於 2024 年 3 月中旬完成。

I'll now hand off to Paul to provide an update on our Operations.

我現在將交給保羅提供有關我們運營的最新資訊。

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. At Norfolk Southern, everything starts with safety. So let's turn to Slide 13 for an update.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早安。在諾福克南方航空，一切從安全開始。讓我們轉向投影片 13 來了解最新情況。

In the quarter, we have made significant strides. Our injury rate is up slightly versus last year, but has improved 30% from where we were just 3 years ago. Our accident rate is trending down from where we have been in the past 2 years, and we also continue to maintain a significant reduction in our mainline accident rate through the many efforts and initiatives we have put forth, including the enhancements to our train makeup rules implemented earlier this year.

在本季度，我們取得了重大進展。我們的受傷率比去年略有上升，但比 3 年前下降了 30%。我們的事故率與過去兩年相比呈下降趨勢，而且我們還透過我們所採取的許多努力和舉措（包括增強列車構成規則）繼續保持幹線事故率的顯著降低今年早些時候實施。

While those enhancements required a significant period of operational adjustment earlier this year, they are now paying off in terms of our mainline accident rate improvement.

雖然這些增強措施需要在今年稍早進行長時間的營運調整，但它們現在在我們幹線事故率的改善方面得到了回報。

We also remain very focused on reducing exposures and improving outcomes in our yard and terminal operations. We have made further investments in our people, including enhancements to our training and PPE programs as well as leadership development. On all of these fronts, the results are encouraging, but we are not satisfied and will continue to drive towards our goal of being the industry leader in safety.

我們也非常注重減少風險並改善堆場和碼頭營運的成果。我們對員工進行了進一步投資，包括加強我們的培訓和個人防護裝備計劃以及領導力發展。在所有這些方面，結果令人鼓舞，但我們並不滿足，並將繼續朝著成為安全產業領導者的目標努力。

Turning to Slide 14 for an update on Service. This is another area where we have made sustained progress this last quarter. Train speeds have resumed the improving trajectory they were on before our challenging second quarter. We have also pushed to reduce dwell and improved schedule rigor in our terminals, which will now improve to its best level in 2 years. We're sustaining this progress in October while bringing weekly car loadings up to their highest level since Q2 2022, and while developing new service offerings that Ed will outline.

請參閱投影片 14 以了解服務更新。這是我們上季度持續進展的另一個領域。火車速度已恢復到充滿挑戰的第二季度之前的改善軌道。我們還努力減少航站樓的停留時間並提高時間表的嚴格性，現在將提高到兩年來的最佳水平。我們將在 10 月保持這一進展，同時將每週汽車裝載量提高到 2022 年第二季以來的最高水平，同時開發艾德將概述的新服務產品。

As part of our scheduled railroad model though, we will drive further progress. We have to continue to minimize car dwell, maximize velocity across the railroad, sustain safe, reliable and resilient service and drive productivity. On the next 2 slides, we will cover how we plan to accomplish this.

不過，作為我們預定鐵路模型的一部分，我們將推動進一步進展。我們必須繼續最大限度地減少汽車停留時間，最大限度地提高鐵路的速度，維持安全、可靠和有彈性的服務並提高生產力。在接下來的兩張投影片中，我們將介紹我們計劃如何實現這一目標。

Turning to Slide 15. Our locomotive velocity was flat year-over-year. Now that we are seeing improvements in train velocity and terminal dwell, this is an opportunity we are focused on driving further velocity and productivity in. As our terminal discipline initiatives take further hold and its network velocity takes the next step above 21 miles per hour, we expect to see this metric improve along with fuel efficiency as we bring additional tonnage onto the network. We now have a qualified T&E workforce that is sized appropriately in aggregate, although we are still investing to get them all in the right locations. We're on track to have our conductor training pipeline below 600 by year-end as indicated last quarter. As our initiatives take hold and as GTMs increase, this measure of productivity will improve from here.

轉向投影片 15。我們的機車速度與去年同期持平。現在我們看到列車速度和終點站停留時間有所改善，這是我們專注於進一步提高速度和生產力的機會。隨著我們的終點站紀律計劃進一步落實，其網路速度進一步提高到每小時21 英里以上，隨著我們將更多噸位引入網絡，我們預計該指標會隨著燃油效率的提高而提高。我們現在擁有一支合格的差旅與娛樂員工隊伍，整體規模適當，但我們仍在投資，將他們全部安置在合適的地點。如上季所示，到年底，我們的指揮訓練人數預計將低於 600 人。隨著我們的措施的實施以及 GTM 的增加，這種生產力衡量標準將從這裡開始改善。

Moving to Slide 16 to discuss how we are driving service improvement aligned with our scheduled railroad model and how it will translate into additional gains in resilience, productivity and ultimately, growth. First is disciplined terminal execution. This starts with strict adherence to the operating plan to ensure trains are arriving on plan to balance terminal flows in both our merchandise yards and intermodal facilities. We're minimizing dwell by switching cars within 6 hours of arrival. At our Intermodal facilities, it's ensuring we're driving precision execution to the trip plan of containers and leveraging our high-frequency Intermodal model. It involves maximizing connection performance, getting the right cars on the right train and departing our trains on time.

轉到投影片 16，討論我們如何推動與預定鐵路模式一致的服務改進，以及它將如何轉化為彈性、生產力和最終成長的額外收益。首先是嚴格的終端執行。首先要嚴格遵守營運計劃，以確保列車按計劃到達，以平衡我們的商品場和聯運設施的終點站流量。我們會在抵達後 6 小時內更換車輛，盡量減少停留時間。在我們的多式聯運設施中，它確保我們推動貨櫃行程計劃的精確執行，並利用我們的高頻多式聯運模型。它包括最大限度地提高連接性能、在正確的火車上安排正確的車廂以及準時發車。

The second bullet point. We are driving a culture of strict compliance to the operating plan, both at the train car and intermodal unit level and expect that this will drive further reductions in dwell and even greater consistency in our terminals. Next, we're investing in our people and modernizing our workforce to become more resilient and productive. For example, 250 conductors are receiving locomotives engineered training this year. This gives us resilience and flexibility to fill assignments whether the need is an engineer or a conductor while protecting future growth with an investment today. We are moving forward with the first phase of extra board consolidations, cross-training 260 employees at 7 key terminals across the network.

第二個要點。我們正在火車車廂和聯運單位層面推動嚴格遵守營運計劃的文化，並期望這將進一步減少停留時間，並提高我們航站樓的一致性。接下來，我們將投資於我們的員工並對我們的員工隊伍進行現代化改造，以提高其適應能力和生產力。例如，今年有 250 位車員正在接受機車工程訓練。這使我們能夠靈活地完成任務，無論需要工程師還是指揮，同時透過今天的投資來保護未來的成長。我們正在推進第一階段的額外董事會整合，對整個網路的 7 個關鍵終端的 260 名員工進行交叉培訓。

Let me explain what this is. As railroads and labor agreements evolved and merged over the decades, territorial boundaries remain to have prevented certain employees from working assignments that were within their geography. At many of these locations, we've worked collaboratively with labor to remove those boundaries, but have yet to get folks qualified to work all potential assignments. With our new focus on resilience, we're investing in our craft employees and getting them qualified to hold more assignments providing them with greater work opportunities and offering Norfolk Southern enhanced operational flexibility and efficiency.

讓我解釋一下這是什麼。幾十年來，隨著鐵路和勞工協議的發展和整合，領土邊界仍然阻止某些員工執行其地理位置內的工作任務。在許多這樣的地點，我們與勞工合作消除了這些界限，但尚未讓人們有資格完成所有潛在的任務。隨著我們對韌性的新關注，我們正在對我們的工藝員工進行投資，讓他們有資格承擔更多任務，為他們提供更多的工作機會，並為諾福克南方航空提供更高的運營靈活性和效率。

To complement these labor modernization efforts, we are implementing predictable work scheduling. A groundbreaking work life balance initiative negotiated with our craft colleagues, which will also streamline our back-office crew management functions and drive further productivity.

為了補充這些勞動力現代化努力，我們正在實施可預測的工作安排。與我們的製程同事協商了一項突破性的工作與生活平衡舉措，這也將簡化我們的後台工作人員管理職能並進一步提高生產力。

Lastly, we are kicking off a system-wide initiative that will drive productivity and enhance our first-mile last-mile service. This is a substantial initiative aligned with delivering reliable service, productivity and most importantly, driving additional growth to the network.

最後，我們正在啟動一項全系統計劃，該計劃將提高生產力並增強我們的第一英里和最後一英里服務。這是一項重大舉措，旨在提供可靠的服務、生產力，最重要的是，推動網路的進一步成長。

To close, running a safe, reliable and resilient scheduled railroad using these principles is going to improve service consistency, generate greater productivity and create capacity for growth.

最後，使用這些原則運行安全、可靠和有彈性的定期鐵路將提高服務一致性，產生更高的生產力並創造成長能力。

I'll now turn the call over to Ed.

我現在將把電話轉給艾德。

Thanks, Paul, and good morning to everybody on the call. Now before we get into the numbers, I want to call out the collaboration between our teams and Marketing and Operations as we improve service and innovate solutions to deliver value for our shareholders and for our customers. I'll talk about it more as we move along here, but I think it's important to recognize the steady progress that we're seeing deep in these organizations that's starting to pay off.

謝謝保羅，祝所有參加電話會議的人早安。現在，在我們討論數字之前，我想強調我們的團隊與行銷和營運部門之間的合作，因為我們改進了服務並創新了解決方案，為我們的股東和客戶創造了價值。當我們繼續前進時，我會更多地談論它，但我認為重要的是要認識到我們在這些組織深處看到的穩步進展，這些進展開始得到回報。

Let's start on Slide 18 and review our results for the third quarter. Norfolk Southern volumes and revenue was down 2% and 11%, respectively, year-over-year in the third quarter. Revenue declines outpaced volume due to lower fuel surcharge and intermodal storage revenue compared to the prior period. Within merchandise, weakness in several energy markets was the leading driver of a 3% decline in total volume. Crude oil shipments were challenged by unfavorable fuel price differentials that discourage crude by rail to East Coast refineries that we serve. Also, low natural gas prices negatively impacted shipments of sand and NGLs. Helping to offset those declines in energy markets with strength in automotive, where volume increased 7% year-over-year in the third quarter.

讓我們從投影片 18 開始回顧第三季的結果。諾福克南方航空第三季的銷售和收入分別較去年同期下降 2% 和 11%。由於燃油附加費和多式聯運倉儲收入較上一期下降，收入下降幅度超過了銷量下降幅度。在商品方面，幾個能源市場的疲軟是導致總成交量下降 3% 的主要原因。原油運輸受到不利的燃料價差的挑戰，這阻礙了原油透過鐵路運往我們服務的東海岸煉油廠。此外，較低的天然氣價格對沙子和液化天然氣的運輸產生了負面影響。汽車產業的強勁表現有助於抵銷能源市場的下滑，第三季汽車銷量較去年同期成長 7%。

Growth was driven by continued strength and demand for finished vehicles, as well as high shippable ground counts. Merchandise revenue was down 7% due to lower revenue from fuel surcharge and lower volume. However, revenue per unit, excluding fuel, set a new record as it improved 3%, showing sustained price and mix improvement. This quarter marks 33 out of the last 34 consecutive quarters where we've been able to achieve year-over-year growth in merchandise revenue per unit excluding fuel.

成長是由對整車的持續強勁和需求以及大量可運輸地面數量所推動的。由於燃油附加費收入減少和銷售減少，商品收入下降 7%。然而，每單位收入（不包括燃料）創下了新紀錄，成長了 3%，顯示出價格和產品組合的持續改善。本季是過去 34 個連續季度中我們能夠實現單位商品收入（不包括燃料）年成長的第 33 季。

Moving on to Intermodal. Volume was down slightly compared with last year as growth in international Intermodal largely offset declines in domestic. On the domestic side, persistently abundant truck capacity and weak freight demand challenge volume. While on the international side, volume improved as customers continued to return freight to IPI service. Intermodal revenue was down 22% as revenue per unit, excluding fuel, declined 15%. Lower Intermodal storage fees represented more than 2/3 of this decline followed by adverse mix effects from strong international volumes and the impact of persistent competitive pressure in a loose trucking environment. We're also seeing negative mix effects within the international business.

轉向聯運。由於國際多式聯運的成長很大程度上抵消了國內多式聯運的下降，貨運量較去年略有下降。國內方面，卡車運力持續充裕，貨運需求疲軟，對貨量構成挑戰。而在國際方面，隨著客戶繼續將貨物退回 IPI 服務，成交量有所改善。多式聯運收入下降 22%，每單位收入（不含燃料）下降 15%。聯運倉儲費下降佔這一下降的 2/3 以上，其次是強勁的國際貨運量帶來的不利混合效應以及寬鬆的貨運環境中持續的競爭壓力的影響。我們也看到國際業務中的負面混合效應。

First, shippers are returning to lower yielding short-haul lanes that shifted to the highway during the pandemic; and second, growth in lower-yielding empty shipments is also outpacing loaded shipments. Intermodal storage has returned to a normal level, and we expect to lap this headwind in the second quarter of next year.

首先，托運人正在返回收益較低的短途航線，這些航線在大流行期間轉向了高速公路；其次，低收益空船出貨量的成長也超過了滿載出貨量。多式聯運儲存已恢復到正常水平，我們預計明年第二季將克服這一阻力。

Lastly, within coal, volume dropped 9% year-over-year with weak conditions in our utility markets, which more than offset strength in our export markets. Utility coal volume was down roughly 26% from prior year levels driven by high stockpiles and low natural gas prices and prolonged customer and producer outages.

最後，在煤炭領域，由於公用事業市場疲軟，煤炭銷量較去年同期下降 9%，這遠遠抵消了出口市場的強勁勢頭。由於庫存高、天然氣價格低以及客戶和生產商停電時間延長，公用事業煤炭產量比去年水準下降了約 26%。

Export volume increased year-over-year driven by strong Asian demand. Coal revenue declined 8%, primarily due to lower volume. Revenue per unit excluding fuel set a new record and revenue per unit also increased as positive mix and stronger-than-expected seaborne coal pricing and modest liquidated damages more than offset a decline in fuel surcharge revenue.

在亞洲強勁需求的推動下，出口量較去年同期成長。煤炭收入下降 8%，主要是因為銷售量下降。不包括燃料的每單位收入創下新紀錄，由於積極的組合、強於預期的海運煤炭定價和適度的違約金，每單位收入也有所增加，足以抵消燃油附加費收入的下降。

Turning to Slide 19. For the fourth quarter, we expect to see slow volume recovery amid uncertain economic conditions. September presented us with some encouraging data that the contraction in manufacturing is slowing and onshoring to the U.S. is on the rise. However, we remain cautious in our optimism as uncertainty surrounding future Fed actions, strike outcomes and geopolitical tension is very pronounced.

轉向幻燈片 19。對於第四季度，我們預計在經濟狀況不確定的情況下銷售將緩慢復甦。 9月份為我們提供了一些令人鼓舞的數據，顯示製造業收縮正在放緩，美國本土生產正在增加。然而，由於聯準會未來行動、罷工結果和地緣政治緊張局勢的不確定性非常明顯，我們仍保持謹慎樂觀。

Although the macro environment is unclear, we are steadfast in our business development initiatives, and I'll talk about those in a few minutes. Our merchandise markets have upside potential in the automotive and metals markets. We expect growth in automotive as we continue to work through the backlog of shippable vehicles, improve our cycle times and grow our fleet size. We also still see unmet demand in our metals market, which we should realize as improving service should drive year-over-year growth. Offsetting anticipated growth in the fourth quarter will be sustained soft conditions in energy markets as the headwinds that pressured crude, NGL and sand volumes in the third quarter are expected to continue through the remainder of the year.

雖然宏觀環境不明朗，但我們的業務發展舉措是堅定的，我稍後會講。我們的商品市場在汽車和金屬市場具有上升潛力。隨著我們繼續解決可運輸車輛的積壓問題、縮短週期時間並擴大車隊規模，我們預計汽車業務將會成長。我們也看到金屬市場的需求未被滿足，我們應該意識到這一點，因為改善服務應該會推動年成長。能源市場持續疲軟的狀況將抵消第四季度的預期成長，因為第三季對原油、液化天然氣和沙子產量造成壓力的不利因素預計將持續到今年剩餘時間。

Automotive production is a key driver for many of our merchandise markets beyond automotive. So the duration and scope of the ongoing UAW Strike is a downside risk to our overall merchandise volumes. Our marketing and operations teams are collaborating to deliver incremental business wins across the portfolio of carload markets that we serve by identifying and solving business challenges for our customers at an accelerating pace. This innovation and collaboration will be a driver of future growth for NS.

汽車生產是汽車以外許多商品市場的關鍵驅動力。因此，正在進行的 UAW 罷工的持續時間和範圍對我們的整體商品量構成下行風險。我們的行銷和營運團隊正在合作，透過加快識別和解決客戶的業務挑戰，在我們所服務的整車市場組合中實現增量業務勝利。這種創新與合作將成為 NS 未來成長的驅動力。

Intermodal volume is expected to improve year-over-year in the fourth quarter from sustained service recovery and improving market conditions. We're encouraged by the momentum that we're seeing in our domestic market. Our customers are seeing improvements in bid compliance and demand, which has us trending positively in October. While we continue to see a relatively muted peak season which will temper overall volumes. International markets will benefit from strong East Coast import demand and favorable ocean rates driving demand for IPI. We expect the negative mix effects from the shift back to short-haul lanes to persist in the fourth quarter, and we continue to experiment and develop new services for our Intermodal customers, and I'll talk about that in just a minute.

由於服務持續復甦和市場狀況改善，預計第四季度多式聯運量將比去年同期改善。我們對國內市場的勢頭感到鼓舞。我們的客戶看到投標合規性和需求有所改善，這使我們在 10 月呈現出積極的趨勢。儘管我們繼續看到旺季相對淡靜，這將抑制整體銷售。國際市場將受益於強勁的東海岸進口需求和有利的海價推動 IPI 需求。我們預計返回短程航線的負面混合效應將在第四季度持續存在，我們將繼續為我們的多式聯運客戶試驗和開發新服務，我將立即討論這一點。

Coal volumes should be stable in the fourth quarter with upside potential in export markets as new production comes online. In addition, recent trends in seaborne coal prices suggest higher prices throughout the remainder of the year due to supply constraints out of Australia as well as continued strong demand out of China and India. Domestic coal shipments should improve sequentially in the fourth quarter on improved service and fewer outages, but headwinds from low natural gas prices will continue to be a limiting factor. And while uncertainty in the economy continues to persist, we're confident in our ability to collaborate with our customers to drive incremental volume and to continue providing value in a manner that drives growth in the future.

第四季煤炭產量應保持穩定，隨著新產量的投產，出口市場具有上升潛力。此外，海運煤炭價格的近期趨勢表明，由於澳洲的供應限制以及中國和印度的持續強勁需求，今年剩餘時間價格將會上漲。由於服務改善和停電減少，第四季國內煤炭運輸量應較上季改善，但天然氣價格低迷帶來的阻力將持續成為限制因素。儘管經濟的不確定性持續存在，但我們對與客戶合作推動增量並繼續以推動未來成長的方式提供價值的能力充滿信心。

Now before I turn it back to Alan, I would like to expand briefly on how we're providing value in ways that drive growth in an unfavorable market.

現在，在我把問題轉回給艾倫之前，我想簡要介紹一下我們如何在不利的市場中以推動成長的方式提供價值。

Slide 20 features key examples of new service offerings, we developed this quarter aimed at making Norfolk Southern the preferred option for freight transportation and driving modal conversion. It's important to recognize that collaboration and teamwork invested by both marketing and operations to bring these projects to life.

投影片 20 展示了我們本季開發的新服務產品的關鍵範例，旨在使諾福克南方航空成為貨運和駕駛模式轉換的首選。重要的是要認識到行銷和營運部門投入的協作和團隊精神才能使這些專案付諸實踐。

In October, we partnered with CN to expand intermodal service and connect customers in Atlanta and Kansas City with markets on the CN in Canada. We also partnered with Florida East Coast Railway to expand both domestic and international intermodal services in Florida. These new services are designed to give our customers flexibility expand the reach of the NS Intermodal Network into key growth markets and give more ways for our customers to reduce their supply chain greenhouse gas emissions.

10 月，我們與 CN 合作擴大多式聯運服務，將亞特蘭大和堪薩斯城的客戶與加拿大 CN 的市場連接起來。我們也與佛羅裡達東海岸鐵路合作，擴大佛羅裡達州的國內和國際聯運服務。這些新服務旨在為我們的客戶提供靈活性，將 NS 多式聯運網路的覆蓋範圍擴大到主要成長市場，並為我們的客戶提供更多方法來減少其供應鏈溫室氣體排放。

Early in September, we also announced an investment in DrayNow, a company focused on modernizing technology solutions for Intermodal. DrayNow is revolutionizing Intermodal's first and final mile journey through an app that provides customers with real-time shipment tracking and document capture of drayage shipments. Norfolk Southern is the operator of the most extensive Intermodal network in the Eastern U.S. And together with DrayNow, and our best-in-class customers, we will drive more transparency into a fragmented supply chain and increase the ability to best serve our intermodal customers.

9 月初，我們也宣布投資 DrayNow，這是一家專注於聯運技術解決方案現代化的公司。 DrayNow 正在透過應用程式徹底改變 Intermodal 的第一英里和最後一英里旅程，該應用程式為客戶提供即時貨運追蹤和拖運貨物的文件捕獲。 Norfolk Southern 是美國東部最廣泛的多式聯運網路的營運商。我們將與 DrayNow 以及我們一流的客戶一起，提高分散的供應鏈的透明度，並提高為多式聯運客戶提供最佳服務的能力。

And lastly, our persistent industrial development efforts paid off as both new and expanded industries turned on additional volume in the third quarter, including a new cement transload and ethanol terminal and a containerboard warehouse. As well as expanded rail operations at an established grain elevator. We like to make our customers for locating on our network and allowing NS to serve their market needs.

最後，我們堅持不懈的工業發展努力得到了回報，新的和擴展的工業在第三季度開始增加產量，包括一個新的水泥轉運和乙醇碼頭以及一個箱板倉庫。以及擴大現有穀物升降機的鐵路營運。我們希望讓我們的客戶能夠使用我們的網路並允許 NS 滿足他們的市場需求。

Together, these diverse projects will generate over 7,800 new carloads annually at full production. We're aggressively pursuing project-oriented growth to enhance the NS network in a fragile freight environment. We're not sitting back and waiting for carloads to come to us. But rather we are proactively making enhancements to our service portfolio to become a preferred service provider for our customers and drive sustainable and smart growth in the future.

這些不同的項目在滿載生產的情況下每年將生產超過 7,800 輛新車。我們正在積極追求以專案為導向的成長，以在脆弱的貨運環境中增強 NS 網路。我們不會坐等一車來找我們。相反，我們正在積極增強我們的服務組合，成為客戶的首選服務提供者，並推動未來的永續和智慧成長。

And concluding on Slide 21, let's look at our 2023 outlook. Based on lower Q3 revenue, which included significantly the lower fuel surcharge, we're now expecting 2023 revenue to be down closer to 4% year-over-year.

最後，讓我們來看看幻燈片 21 的 2023 年展望。基於第三季收入的下降，其中包括燃油附加費的大幅降低，我們現在預計 2023 年的營收將年減近 4%。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Alan to bring us home.

這樣，我會把它交還給艾倫，讓他帶我們回家。

Closing on Slide 22. Although this year has presented a number of challenges, we are emerging a stronger company due to our response and our decisive action to affect necessary improvements. I'm more confident than ever that our innovative strategy is a better way forward. We are already seeing the benefits from leadership changes, plan refinements and resource investments as we drive towards our strategy. We are achieving wins with our customer base, and we are incorporating operational discipline that drives consistency and enables productivity enhancements in the quarters ahead. I am extremely optimistic about our future.

投影片 22 結束。儘管今年出現了許多挑戰，但由於我們的反應和採取果斷行動來實現必要的改進，我們正在成為一家更強大的公司。我比以往任何時候都更有信心，我們的創新策略是更好的前進之路。在我們推動策略的過程中，我們已經看到了領導層變動、計劃完善和資源投資所帶來的好處。我們正在與客戶群取得勝利，我們正在整合營運紀律，以推動一致性並在未來幾季提高生產力。我對我們的未來非常樂觀。

We will now open the call to questions. Operator?

我們現在開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

I guess maybe I want to start on Slide 9. Mark, you laid out some of the temporary service costs and the incremental resiliency investments that you're making. I guess I want to make sure I understand how to think about that as we move into the fourth quarter and then also really more 2024. I guess are you able to absorb these costs and generate sequential OR improvement in the fourth quarter? And then as you look out to next year, how much of this cost kind of sticks around? How much of it actually will go away? And any thoughts around the cadence of that? So thanks for that.

我想也許我想從幻燈片 9 開始。馬克，您列出了一些臨時服務成本和您正在進行的增量彈性投資。我想我想確保我了解如何在我們進入第四季度以及 2024 年時考慮這一點。我想您是否能夠吸收這些成本並在第四季度產生連續或改進？然後，當您展望明年時，這種成本中有多少會持續存在？其中有多少實際上會消失？對此的節奏有什麼想法嗎？所以謝謝你。

Thanks, Chris. So if you start first on the service costs, we saw a slight reduction here in the third quarter. We were hoping for a little bit more, but obviously, we had some disruptions to the network that delayed that. We do expect the reduction to continue here in the fourth quarter. And eventually, this should unwind over the next couple of quarters as fluidity on the network improves as we qualify more of our T&E in the right critical locations as well, and we start to build some solid processes around delivering service as opposed to putting the band-aids on like we are today with overtime, et cetera. So those will start to unwind here in the next couple of quarters.

謝謝，克里斯。因此，如果您先從服務成本開始，我們會發現第三季略有下降。我們希望能多一點，但顯然，我們的網路出現了一些中斷，導致了這一點的延遲。我們確實預計第四季將繼續減少。最終，隨著網路流動性的改善，隨著我們在正確的關鍵位置進行更多的T&E 認證，這種情況應該會在接下來的幾個季度得到緩解，並且我們開始圍繞提供服務而不是設置頻寬來建立一些可靠的流程-就像我們今天一樣，加班等等。因此，這些問題將在接下來的幾季開始緩解。

The right-hand part of that slide, those are -- I think you need to think about those as structural cost increases. And those are really around developing and building resiliency, that's the whole point. A lot of this is related to the T&E ramp-up that we've seen as well as the investments in our locomotives. There are also costs related to the quality of life improvements that we've announced with our craft workforce.

這張投影片的右側部分是——我認為您需要隨著結構成本的增加而考慮這些內容。這些實際上是圍繞著發展和建立彈性，這就是重點。這很大程度上與我們所看到的運輸和娛樂的增加以及對機車的投資有關。我們也與工藝人員一起宣布了與生活品質改善相關的成本。

And I'd say that of these costs, 75% of those will probably reside in the comp and ben line. And then after that, you'll see costs sitting in purchase services and also in some materials. But in terms of cadence as we go into Q4, like I said, service costs will start to come down, but that will be offset by another increase there in the structural resiliency costs. And then I think at that point, we should probably be moderating going forward into '24, but we'll give you more '24 guidance when we reconvene in January.

我想說的是，在這些成本中，75% 可能會出現在補償和費用中。之後，您會看到採購服務和某些材料的成本。但就節奏而言，正如我所說，當我們進入第四季度時，服務成本將開始下降，但這將被結構性彈性成本的另一次增加所抵消。然後我認為，在這一點上，我們可能應該在 24 世紀之前進行緩和，但當我們 1 月重新召開會議時，我們會為您提供更多 24 世紀指導。

And Chris, one way to look at this is, our investments in resiliency are in investments in the elimination of the service recovery costs. And it's also an investment in top-tier growth and industry competitive margins. That's our vision for the future, and that's what we said we were going to do when we laid this out in December of last year.

克里斯，看待這個問題的一種方法是，我們對彈性的投資是對消除服務恢復成本的投資。這也是對頂級成長和產業競爭利潤的投資。這是我們對未來的願景，也是我們去年 12 月提出這個目標時所說的我們要做的事情。

Yes. Ultimately, these are going to get paid for by the elimination of those temporary service costs, but also by accommodating more volume than we typically would be able to as well as pricing and productivity. So it's exaggerated here because we're in a down cycle.

是的。最終，這些費用將透過消除臨時服務成本來支付，而且還可以透過容納比我們通常能夠容納的更多的數量以及定價和生產力來支付。所以這裡的說法被誇大了，因為我們正處於下行週期。

And does this give you the ability to improve OR in the fourth quarter still?

這是否能讓你在第四季提升 OR 的能力？

Yes, I think we're at a trough. I think we're at a trough right here.

是的，我認為我們正處於低谷。我認為我們現在正處於低谷。

Our next question is from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Thanks, Operator. Maybe first question, can you just give us the liquidated damages in coal and where we think coal yields can trend from the high 3Q levels? And Alan, just a bigger picture question. Every rail right now has a cyclical challenge. Everybody has a fuel headwind. You guys are still reporting margins that are 600, 700 basis points worse than your direct competitor and just generally the industry. I look at that as an opportunity because, obviously, with top SPG, you've fixed the network, you're improving the service. The volumes are coming. So there's obviously progress made there, but is there an opportunity to look deeper inside the cost structure of the organization to say, listen, we're dealing with all these headwinds just like all our competitors are, but we're still -- our cost structure is still seemingly very, very high and what's the opportunity there if you're looking at it and how you're going about addressing those differences?

謝謝，接線生。也許第一季度，您能否告訴我們煤炭的違約金以及我們認為煤炭產量從第三季高水準開始的趨勢？艾倫，只是一個更大的問題。目前每條鐵路都面臨週期性挑戰。每個人都面臨燃料逆風。你們報告的利潤率仍然比你們的直接競爭對手和整個產業低 600、700 個基點。我認為這是一個機會，因為顯然，有了頂級 SPG 俱樂部，你已經修復了網絡，你正在改善服務。卷即將到來。因此，顯然這方面取得了進展，但是是否有機會更深入地了解組織的成本結構，說，聽著，我們正在應對所有這些逆風，就像我們所有的競爭對手一樣，但我們仍然 - 我們的成本結構看起來仍然非常非常高，如果您正在考慮它，那麼機會是什麼？您將如何解決這些差異？

Amit, thank you for that question. Why don't I address the second part of your one question first, and then I'll turn it over to Ed to talk about coal yields.

阿米特，謝謝你提出這個問題。我為什麼不先解決你的一個問題的第二部分，然後我將其交給艾德談論煤炭產量。

Look we're committed to industry competitive margins. We said that from the get-go. We've also said that returns follow the investment. We're investing over the long term. We're not going to chase short-term OR targets. We illustrated very clearly, Mark had a chart, I believe, at Investor Day that showed during an economic trough, right, our margins would get a little worse as we invest it over the long term. But as you evaluate this through an economic cycle. This is the better way forward for Norfolk Southern to invest and in long-term growth, deliver top tier growth industry competitive margins and drive long-term shareholder value.

看，我們致力於提供具有行業競爭力的利潤。我們從一開始就這麼說。我們也說過，投資是有回報的。我們正在進行長期投資。我們不會追逐短期 OR 目標。我們非常清楚地說明了，我相信馬克在投資者日有一張圖表，顯示在經濟低谷期間，對吧，當我們進行長期投資時，我們的利潤率會變得更糟。但當你透過經濟週期來評估這一點時。這是諾福克南方航空投資和長期成長、提供頂級成長產業競爭性利潤並推動長期股東價值的更好途徑。

Look, we're not happy with our cost structure right now, as we drive operational discipline into our network as we refresh our operations team as we drive a high degree of plan compliance that allows us to continue to iterate the plan for productivity and service, and that's exactly what we're doing right now.

看，我們現在對我們的成本結構並不滿意，因為我們將營運紀律引入我們的網絡，我們更新了我們的營運團隊，我們推動了高度的計劃合規性，這使我們能夠繼續迭代生產力和服務計劃，而這正是我們現在正在做的事情。

Ed, do you want to talk about coal yields?

艾德，你想談談煤炭產量嗎？

Sure. I think you asked about LDs in the quarter. And I think I said in the prepared remarks, these are episodic. We don't expect them to continue. It's high single digits in terms of millions of dollars. And when we look out into the fourth quarter and again, restating what I said in the prepared remarks, we're forecasting prices to be sideways through the end of the quarter and of the year. And that's really predicated off the continuation of strong demand out of India and China for export.

當然。我認為您詢問了本季度的 LD。我想我在準備好的發言中說過，這些都是偶然的。我們不希望他們繼續下去。就數百萬美元而言，這是很高的個位數。當我們展望第四季並再次重申我在準備好的發言中所說的話時，我們預測價格將在本季末和今年橫盤整理。這其實是基於印度和中國對出口的持續強勁需求。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Ed, solid job on the new lanes, interesting stuff. Alan, I just want to follow-up on that question maybe a little bit more, right? So you have a lot of temporary costs and restructuring costs. Do you think you need to bring in PSR expertise to handle some of that network resiliency that seems to be the thing that PSR does, right? It allows the quick snapback at least for some of the peers that have implemented that process. And I'm a little confused on the resiliency investments. It sounded like when Mark went through some of them, is it paid sick leave? Or is there more on the resiliency expenditures? I just want to understand what's outside of agreements or costs that you've already implemented on the resiliency side.

艾德，新車道上的工作很紮實，有趣的東西。艾倫，我只是想進一步跟進這個問題，對吧？所以你有很多臨時成本和重組成本。您是否認為您需要引入 PSR 專業知識來處理 PSR 所做的某些網路彈性，對嗎？它至少允許一些已經實施該過程的同行快速恢復。我對彈性投資有點困惑。聽起來馬克經歷過的一些事情是帶薪病假嗎？還是有更多的彈性支出？我只是想了解您已經在彈性方面實施的協議或成本之外的內容。

Thank you, Ken. Look, I've been CEO for 1.5 years. We've been kinetic here. We've refreshed our Operations' leadership. We've implemented a new operating plan. We've launched a brand-new strategy something that's never been done in this industry. We've revamped the marketing organization. We brought in a number of outsiders and leadership roles outsiders to the rail industry, outsiders to Norfolk Southern. I believe we've got the right team going forward. We will continue to look for opportunities to improve our strategic talent base.

謝謝你，肯。看，我已經擔任執行長 1.5 年了。我們在這裡一直充滿活力。我們更新了營運部門的領導階層。我們實施了新的營運計劃。我們推出了一項全新的策略，這在這個行業是前所未有的。我們改進了行銷組織。我們引進了許多外部人員和領導職位，這些職位是鐵路行業的外部人員，諾福克南方鐵路公司的外部人員。我相信我們有正確的團隊前進。我們將繼續尋找機會改善我們的策略人才基礎。

With respect to the resiliency costs, some of that has to do with predictable work schedules. Some of that has to do with the historic wage increase that the rental industry and labor came to agreement on last year. Some of it has to do with hiring or investing in additional resources. And as a result of that, what you're seeing is third quarter service is better year-over-year and better sequentially.

就彈性成本而言，其中一些與可預測的工作時間表有關。其中部分原因與租賃業和勞工去年達成的歷史性工資成長有關。其中一些與招聘或投資額外資源有關。因此，您看到的是第三季的服務比去年同期更好，並且環比更好。

Our safety figures improved in the third quarter. And our volume growth right now, our volumes in the last 4 weeks are at levels that we haven't seen in the last, say, second quarter of last year. So we are making progress. We're doing exactly what we said we're going to do. This is a better way forward for Norfolk Southern to drive long-term shareholder value.

我們的安全數據在第三季有所改善。我們現在的銷售成長，過去 4 週的銷量達到了去年第二季我們從未見過的水平。所以我們正在取得進展。我們正在按照我們所說的去做。對諾福克南方航空來說，這是推動長期股東價值的更好途徑。

And Ken, just to put a fine point on the resiliency expense, about 1/3 of that cost in the third quarter is related to the quality of life benefits, which are essentially paid sick leave, that has a cost to it. And the rest is really around the head count additions for primarily T&E, but also some mechanical staff. And then the rest is locomotive investments as well to be able to accommodate and accelerate the network.

肯，只是為了強調彈性費用，第三季度大約 1/3 的成本與生活品質福利有關，這些福利本質上是帶薪病假，這是有成本的。其餘的實際上是主要是 T&E 的人員增加，還有一些機械人員。剩下的就是機車投資，以便能夠容納和加速網路。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自斯科特集團和沃爾夫研究公司。

Mark, I wasn't sure what you were trying to say on overall cost ex fuel in Q4 versus Q3. So if you have any color there?

馬克，我不確定您對第四季度與第三季度的除燃料外的總體成本有何看法。那麼那裡有顏色嗎？

And then, Alan, I just want to go back to that big picture question, right? You've been clear and consistent with your message. We're not going to chase short-term OR but long term, we want to have industry competitive margin. I guess my question is, what does 2024 look like in that short-term versus long-term view? Like are we committed to margin improvement next year? Are we committed to starting to narrow this margin gap next year because it is getting pretty wide right now. So I just want to know when do we start to see it get to industry competitive again.

然後，艾倫，我只想回到那個大局問題，對吧？您所傳達的訊息清晰且一致。我們不會追求短期或長期目標，我們希望擁有產業競爭優勢。我想我的問題是，從短期和長期角度來看，2024 年會是什麼樣子？例如我們明年是否致力於提高利潤率？我們是否致力於明年開始縮小這一利潤差距，因為現​​在它已經變得相當大了。所以我只是想知道我們什麼時候開始看到它再次具有行業競爭力。

Mark, do you want to address the first one?

馬克，你想解決第一個問題嗎？

Yes, sorry. Scott, look, I think the way you look at cost ex fuel, to answer your specific question, it should be largely sideways and then you sprinkle in the nice uptick we've seen in volumes. I think we're -- we've definitely probably troughed here in Q3, and we should see sequential margin improvement model out what you think that volume is going to be as we navigate through the quarter and we report our volumes. And you can pretty much assign traditional incremental margin rate to that. So I think we troughed here in Q3, and it should improve from there.

是的，抱歉。斯科特，聽著，我認為你看待燃料成本的方式，為了回答你的具體問題，它應該在很大程度上是橫向的，然後你再加入我們在數量上看到的良好上升。我認為我們在第三季度肯定可能已經觸底，我們應該看到連續利潤率改善模型，顯示出您認為的銷量在我們整個季度並報告銷量時的情況。您幾乎可以將傳統的增量保證金率分配給它。所以我認為我們在第三季陷入了低谷，應該會有所改善。

And Scott, with respect to industry competitive margins, we are committed to it. We're committed to it over the long term. And what we'll see is that as service continues to improve. We'll have greater opportunity to eliminate the service recovery cost. We'll have greater opportunity to drive productivity throughout our organization as we standardize our operating practices.

斯科特，就行業競爭利潤而言，我們致力於這一點。我們長期致力於此。我們將看到的是，隨著服務的不斷改善。我們將有更大的機會消除服務恢復成本。隨著我們標準化營運實踐，我們將有更多機會提高整個組織的生產力。

We have greater opportunity to generate more volume. We'll have greater opportunity to generate more price, reflecting the value of the product that we sell. And all of those things will contribute to improvements in our margins and industry competitive margins. And I think we're going to see improvement in that next year.

我們有更大的機會產生更多的銷售。我們將有更多的機會產生更多的價格，反映我們銷售的產品的價值。所有這些都將有助於提高我們的利潤率和行業競爭利潤率。我認為明年我們會看到這方面的改進。

Our next question is from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

So I think it seems fairly clear that it's not so much a cost story, but it's much more volume and a revenue story that you need to drive that margin improvement. And correct me if you think I'm wrong on that. But the question is really, what do you think is necessary to really get that revenue story improving? I think we look at the Intermodal revenue per car was pretty weak in the quarter. I know there's some mix. But how do you think about that intermodal revenue strengthening? Is that mix going to improve over a couple of quarters? Do we really need to see some tightening in the truckload market? I know you -- a lot of your business is truck competitive. So is that something that truck rates are key. Just maybe if you could offer some thoughts I guess, Intermodal on that debt revenue per car, but broader thoughts on '24, what should we be looking for to really potentially drive that revenue story stronger?

因此，我認為很明顯，這並不是一個成本故事，而是一個需要推動利潤率提高的更多銷售和收入故事。如果您認為我錯了，請糾正我。但問題是，您認為要真正改善收入狀況需要什麼？我認為我們看到本季每輛車的多式聯運收入相當疲軟。我知道有一些混合。但您如何看待多式聯運收入的增強？這種組合會在幾個季度內有所改善嗎？我們真的需要看到整車市場出現一些收緊嗎？我了解您—您的許多業務都與卡車競爭。因此，卡車費率是關鍵。也許你可以提供一些想法，我想，聯運對每輛車的債務收入，但對 24 世紀更廣泛的想法，我們應該尋找什麼來真正有可能推動收入故事變得更強？

Tom, to be clear, this is a balanced approach. It's not just about revenue growth. We will continue to drive productivity into our organization. I'm committed to that. Our improved service product is going to help us with productivity. Our improved service product is going to help us attract more volume. Our improved service product is going to help us price to the value of our products. So there is a lot of value in there as we continue to invest in network resiliency (inaudible). And why don't you talk about what you're seeing in the market itself?

湯姆，要明確的是，這是一種平衡的方法。這不僅僅是收入成長的問題。我們將繼續提高我們組織的生產力。我致力於此。我們改進的服務產品將幫助我們提高生產力。我們改進的服務產品將幫助我們吸引更多的銷售。我們改進的服務產品將幫助我們根據產品的價值進行定價。因此，隨著我們繼續投資於網路彈性（聽不清楚），其中存在很大的價值。為什麼不談談你在市場本身看到的情況呢？

Sure. And it's a really important question that I appreciate you asking and we want to sort of unpeel the onion here and make sure that everybody understands. First of all, let me say, year-to-date, we are positive in our core pricing in every single market we serve, okay?

當然。這是一個非常重要的問題，我感謝你提出這個問題，我們想在這裡剝洋蔥皮，確保每個人都能理解。首先，我要說的是，今年迄今為止，我們對我們服務的每個市場的核心定價都持積極態度，好嗎？

Now let's dig into Intermodal. The largest impact once we strip fuel out was a decline in our intermodal storage revenue. We knew that, that was going to happen. And as I think I said in the prepared remarks, that storage figure accounts for over 2/3 of the RPU decline that we saw in the quarter. And then we had a couple of other things that were very important for folks to understand. We had substantial negative mix in the quarter, and that comes in 2 forms.

現在讓我們深入了解多式聯運。一旦我們取消燃料，最大的影響是我們的多式聯運儲存收入下降。我們知道，這將會發生。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，儲存資料占我們本季看到的 RPU 下降的 2/3 以上。然後我們還有其他一些對於人們理解非常重要的事情。本季我們遇到了嚴重的負面影響，有兩種形式。

The first is international shipments grew while domestic shipments were very anemic given the amount of pressure that's out there in the truckload market. Our domestic shipments have a higher yield than international. So this was a substantial headwind. And we also saw a negative mix in 2 different ways within our international business.

首先是國際貨運量成長，而國內貨運量則非常疲軟，因為卡車市場面臨巨大壓力。我們的國內出貨量比國際出貨量高。所以這是一個巨大的阻力。我們也在國際業務中看到了兩種不同方式的負面組合。

First of all, we're seeing much higher growth in short-haul lanes and those are lanes that really shifted to the highway during the pandemic and then rolled -- are now rolling back to us, 85% of the growth in the third quarter in international came from those short-haul lanes. And those are intra-state lanes. So it's very important to understand that.

首先，我們看到短途車道的成長要快得多，這些車道在大流行期間真正轉移到高速公路，然後又回滾到我們這裡，佔第三季度增長的 85%國際航班來自那些短途航線。這些是州內車道。所以理解這一點非常重要。

Lastly, the amount of empties that we moved is frankly, much faster pace growth than the lows that we saw. That is another decremental pressure on RPUs. So a lot going on there. The truck market continues to be loose I think the cash freight index has been down for 21 straight months contract rates on the highway peaked in March of last year. There's a lot of downward pressure, but here's what I'm confident of. Number one, I'm confident that the market in general will rotate back to growth. It always does. The excess capacity that's on the highway will evacuate, it always does. And Norfolk Southern is going to be really well positioned exceptionally well positioned to take advantage of not only the volume increases, but also the opportunity to reprice.

最後，坦白說，我們移動的空箱數量的成長速度比我們看到的低點快得多。這是 RPU 面臨的另一個減輕壓力。那裡發生了很多事情。卡車市場繼續寬鬆 我認為現金貨運指數已連續 21 個月下降，高速公路合約費率在去年 3 月達到高峰。下行壓力很大，但我對此充滿信心。第一，我相信市場整體將恢復成長。總是如此。高速公路上的過剩產能將會被疏散，而且總是如此。諾福克南方航空將處於非常有利的位置，不僅可以利用銷售量的增加，還可以利用重新定價的機會。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Maybe a 2-parter for Ed. Can you just give us an update? I think last time you mentioned that the $650 million headwind in the back half of the year for coal and access oils or Intermodal storage fees. Is that sort of still tracking in line with expectations? And then secondly, to your point about core pricing, can you just give a little more color on where that is relative to inflation. I think we have seen a decent disconnect in terms of just the core pricing realization for Norfolk in -- for some of the industry in terms of how that trended versus inflation, which was higher than expected. So when do you expect to really sort of catch up with that? Is there something structural that's been keeping it lower than what we would have anticipated? Or is this more a matter of timing with contracts, repricing and service? How do you expect that rolling forward?

也許是艾德的兩人伴侶。您能給我們更新一下嗎？我想上次您提到今年下半年煤炭和石油或多式聯運倉儲費面臨 6.5 億美元的阻力。這種情況仍然符合預期嗎？其次，對於你關於核心定價的觀點，你能否就其相對於通膨的關係給出更多的說明。我認為，就諾福克的核心定價實現而言，我們已經看到了相當大的脫節——對於某些行業來說，就其趨勢與通膨而言，通膨率高於預期。那麼你預計什麼時候才能真正趕上呢？是否存在某種結構性因素導致其低於我們的預期？或者這更多的是合約、重新定價和服務的時間安排問題？您對未來有何期待？

Well, let me try to answer both of those. First one, I think you were asking about some of the known headwinds that we had coming in the second half and if they're intact. And I would say, yes. We've seen the storage revenue really normalize the pre-pandemic levels, and that's persisted and it's been very consistent throughout most of the year. We all know what fuel is doing.

好吧，讓我試著回答這兩個問題。首先，我認為您是在問我們下半年遇到的一些已知的不利因素，以及它們是否完好無損。我想說，是的。我們已經看到儲存收入確實使大流行前的水平正常化，並且這種情況持續存在，並且在一年中的大部分時間都非常穩定。我們都知道燃料的作用。

On that storage piece, we expect to lap that probably second quarter of next year. And so that's going to be a headwind until then. Coal pricing has surprised to the upside, and we'll see where it goes from here. So that's sort of the known pieces of this.

在儲存方面，我們預計可能會在明年第二季完成。因此，在那之前這將是一個阻力。煤炭價格意外上漲，我們將拭​​目以待。這就是其中已知的部分。

On the core pricing side, I think it's probably worth reviewing what our strategy is. And that's, number one, we're always compelled to deliver a competitive price in the marketplace that our customers can recognize value in. But we define that by long-term contract pricing not by what's going on in the spot markets. That recipe over time, has generated above rail inflation pricing for many, many quarters now. We're confident that it will in the future, okay? It's a very unusual truck market right now. We know that. But on our merchandise business, in particular, we recognized high -- or mid-single-digit pricing in this quarter. And again, we're positive for price year-to-date across the book.

在核心定價方面，我認為可能值得重新審視我們的策略。第一，我們總是被迫在市場上提供有競爭力的價格，讓我們的客戶能夠認識到其中的價值。但我們透過長期合約定價來定義這一點，而不是根據現貨市場的情況來定義。隨著時間的推移，這種方法已經在許多很多季度產生了高於鐵路通膨的定價。我們有信心將來會這樣，好嗎？現在這是一個非常不尋常的卡車市場。我們知道。但特別是在我們的商品業務方面，我們認識到本季的定價處於高或中個位數。再次，我們對今年迄今為止的全書價格持積極態度。

Our next question is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗和史蒂芬斯。

Thanks, and good morning. Last quarter, you talked about $175 million to $200 million of lost revenue from the operational disruptions associated with East Palestine. Any updated thoughts on the timing of when this revenue can be recovered? I'm curious if that's something that could be driving some of the improvement in volumes. And then on the 2 tech outages, any way you can quantify the impact you've seen from those thus far?

謝謝，早安。上個季度，您談到了與東巴勒斯坦相關的營運中斷造成的 1.75 億至 2 億美元的收入損失。關於何時可以收回這筆收入，有什麼最新的想法嗎？我很好奇這是否可以推動銷售的部分提升。那麼對於兩次技術中斷，您有什麼方法可以量化迄今為止所看到的影響？

Ed, why don't you talk about revenue outlook and the cadence?

艾德，你為什麼不談談收入前景和節奏？

Sure. As service improves, it is improving both sequentially and year-over-year. Our customers are very encouraged by that, and they're talents that -- that improvement in service is going to bring freight back to Norfolk Southern. We know our customers are very sophisticated supply chain managers and purchasers. And when we're not on plan, they have to make other plans to keep their factories running. Some of our customers are going to see that value faster.

當然。隨著服務的改善，它的環比和同比都在改善。我們的客戶對此感到非常鼓舞，他們是人才，服務的改進將使貨運回到諾福克南方航空。我們知道我們的客戶是非常成熟的供應鏈管理者和採購者。當我們沒有按計劃進行時，他們就必須制定其他計劃來維持工廠的運作。我們的一些客戶將會更快地看到這一價值。

And as we cycle equipment faster, they're immediately going to be able to load more revenue on the Norfolk Southern. I think in markets like metals, like automotive, even though there is a strike right now, I think of that in the construction market in the aggregates market. And some of the more flexible freight markets, we have to demonstrate persistent value in the form of reliable, sustainable service over a longer period of time. But we're making sure that our customers are well aware of our progress.

隨著我們更快地循環使用設備，他們將立即能夠為諾福克南方航空公司帶來更多收入。我認為在金屬、汽車等市場中，儘管現在有罷工，但我認為在建築市場和骨材市場也是如此。對於一些更靈活的貨運市場，我們必須在較長時間內以可靠、可持續的服務形式展示持久價值。但我們確保我們的客戶充分了解我們的進展。

With respect to the tech outages, really, the revenue impact was largely inconsequential. It was more of a service issue and a cost issue associated with the slower network and the recruits. Really, what it does for us is it reaffirms the importance in investing in the resiliency of our network so we can weather anything that comes at us.

事實上，就技術中斷而言，收入影響基本上是微不足道的。這更多的是一個服務問題以及與較慢的網路和新員工相關的成本問題。事實上，它對我們的作用是重申了投資網絡彈性的重要性，這樣我們就可以應對發生在我們身上的任何事情。

Our next question is from the line of Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jonathan Chappell。

Ed, Alan pointed out, you've had 4 weeks now of volumes that have been back to the 2Q '22 levels. But it seems like you still have a lot of red traffic lights or yellow traffic lights on the freight category that you laid out in your slides. How much can we see acceleration of some of those traffic lights turn in your favor? This run rate that you've had in the last 4 weeks seems to be kind of a catch-up and service related. But if you get a macro tailwind behind you, what can those levels go to with the service operating at the levels that they are -- that it is today?

艾德、艾倫指出，現在已經有 4 週的時間，銷售量已回到 22 年第二季的水平。但在幻燈片中列出的貨運類別中，您似乎仍然有很多紅色交通燈或黃色交通燈。我們可以看到其中一些交通號誌的加速程度對您有利嗎？您在過去 4 週內的運行率似乎是一種追趕和服務相關的。但是，如果您獲得宏觀順風，那麼以目前的水平運行的服務會達到什麼樣的水平？

We try to be very tight with this answer. Number one, we're really glad to see a peak season happen this year, and we're encouraged by that. Our service is allowing us to deliver that. This network is built for a lot more freight than we're handling right now. And as our customers recognize and are able to deliver that value to their customers, we're going to be able to handle a lot more freight. I'm confident in that.

我們盡量嚴格回答這個問題。第一，我們真的很高興看到今年出現旺季，我們對此感到鼓舞。我們的服務使我們能夠實現這一目標。這個網路的建立是為了處理比我們現在處理的更多的貨運。隨著我們的客戶認識到並能夠為他們的客戶提供這種價值，我們將能夠處理更多的貨運。我對此很有信心。

The fact is, and this is the last thing I'll say on it, economic uncertainty and geopolitical uncertainty are very high right now. And I think we see that in the headlines every single day. And it's just something that we have to keep in mind. That's probably why some of those lives are colored the way they are right now.

事實是，這是我要說的最後一件事，目前經濟不確定性和地緣政治不確定性非常高。我想我們每天都會在頭條新聞中看到這一點。這只是我們必須牢記的事情。這也許就是為什麼其中一些人的生活會呈現出現在的樣子。

Our next question is from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉森‧波利尼亞克 (Allison Poliniak)。

Just want to go back to Intermodal and the -- I would say the share recapture there. I know you talked about service, you talked about sort of that, time to sort of regain that confidence. Is it something you're starting to see now or hear now from your customers where we could see that start to accelerate in the next few months despite what's going on in the overall macro Intermodal market? Just any thoughts there on your opportunities set for that.

只是想回到多式聯運，我想說的是那裡的份額重新奪回。我知道你談到了服務，你談到了類似的事情，是時候重新恢復信心了。儘管整個宏觀多式聯運市場正在發生什麼，您現在是否開始看到或現在從您的客戶那裡聽到，我們可以看到這種情況在未來幾個月內開始加速？只是對您為此設置的機會的任何想法。

Well, you're right. We are seeing volume come back. And I can't say enough about the quality of the customers that we have in our portfolio. We're very lucky to have our customers. They are certainly best-in-class. They are out on the street every day converting freight from the highway to Norfolk Southern, and it's because we're able to offer value that they can demonstrate to those customers.

嗯，你是對的。我們看到成交量回升。對於我們投資組合中的客戶質量，我無法說太多。我們很幸運有我們的客戶。他們無疑是同類中最好的。他們每天都在街上將貨物從高速公路轉運到諾福克南方航空，這是因為我們能夠提供他們可以向這些客戶展示的價值。

So yes, I think that we have the opportunity here to deliver additional value to our shareholders in the form of more volume, more revenue, particularly from the intermodal market, we have a network that's really built for that.

所以，是的，我認為我們有機會以更多的銷售、更多的收入，特別是來自聯運市場的形式，為我們的股東帶來額外的價值，我們擁有一個真正為此而建立的網路。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Alan, I think in response to a question earlier, you talked about standardizing operating practices across the network as you look into next year. Maybe I'm mischaracterizing what you said. But I guess can you put that in context for us? I thought the op plan had been set, you guys had wearing the changes from the train makeup rules, but maybe there's more to come?

艾倫，我想在回答之前的問題時，您談到了明年展望時標準化整個網路的操作實踐。也許我誤解了你所說的話。但我想你能為我們介紹一下這一點嗎？我以為行動計劃已經確定，你們已經按照火車化妝規則進行了更改，但也許還會有更多的事情發生？

We -- that's been an ongoing effort by Paul and his team to standardize the operating practices within our terminals. Which allows us to drive further productivity and further capacity improvements and further service improvements. And that's just part of the PSR principles.

保羅和他的團隊一直在努力標準化我們航站樓內的操作實踐。這使我們能夠進一步提高生產力、進一步提高產能和進一步改善服務。這只是 PSR 原則的一部分。

Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格 (Jordan Alliger)。

Just a follow-up with velocity and dwell recovering so well of late. Is there a way to assess how much of that comes from the better operations, the changes you've made there versus adding the head count to get it closer to where you need to be? And do we think about head count sort of flatlining from here on out roughly?

只是速度和停留時間最近恢復得很好的後續行動。有沒有一種方法可以評估其中有多少來自更好的營運、您所做的改變，以及增加員工數量以使其更接近您需要的目標？我們是否認為從現在開始員工人數大致趨於穩定？

Jordan, we've always said that service is a function of leadership plan and resources. We've refreshed our leadership within operations. We've implemented a new plan, and we're driving a high degree of clients to the plant. And we're investing in resources, whether that's additional employees, cross-training conductors to become engineers or and invested in quality of life issues. Those are all generating results for us, and you can see that with the service metrics, you can see that with the volumetrics as well.

喬丹，我們總是說服務是領導計畫和資源的函數。我們更新了營運中的領導層。我們實施了一項新計劃，並正在吸引大量客戶來到工廠。我們正在投資資源，無論是增加員工、對指揮進行交叉培訓以成為工程師，還是投資於生活品質問題。這些都為我們產生了結果，您可以透過服務指標看到這一點，也可以透過容量指標看到這一點。

Mark, do you want to talk about the overall headcount?

馬克，你想談談總人數嗎？

Yes. I mean the head count certainly helps. I mean we've augmented in a lot of our critical locations, the staffing in order to improve our fluidity there. So that's a big driver. We've invested money in locomotives, so we have more locomotives available as well. And frankly, Paul, why don't you talk a little bit about the process changes that we're making in the terminals, which really are sticky and fundamental drivers for running a scheduled railroad.

是的。我的意思是人數絕對有幫助。我的意思是，我們在許多關鍵地點增加了人員配備，以提高那裡的流動性。所以這是一個很大的驅動力。我們在機車上投入了資金，因此我們也有更多可用的機車。坦白說，保羅，你為什麼不談談我們在航站樓所做的流程改變，這確實是運營定期鐵路的粘性和基本驅動因素。

Well, you're spot on. I mean we are seeing results from refreshing our Operating leadership, resourcing up and executing the plan in both volume, train speed and terminal dwell. And as Alan highlighted, match to our premise of running as a scheduled railroad. It's a focus on running the plan, right car, right train, right day enforcing a high degree of compliance to the plan. Again, that is a fundamental tenant of running a scheduled railroad. It's driving that accountability. We expect to see further consistency as the year progresses. I certainly expect to see dwell continue to improve. Train's peak continue to improve. And as we have seen these metrics, quarter or velocity improve, we're going to layer on productivity initiatives as we talked, and that's going to be a focus of us in 2024, running reliable service and layering on productivity.

嗯，你說得對。我的意思是，我們正在看到刷新我們的營運領導力、資源配置和執行計劃在數量、列車速度和終點站停留時間方面的成果。正如艾倫所強調的那樣，這符合我們作為定期鐵路運行的前提。它的重點是運行計劃，正確的汽車，正確的火車，正確的日期，強制執行計劃的高度遵守。同樣，這是營運定期鐵路的基本租戶。它正在推動這種問責制。隨著時間的推移，我們預計會看到進一步的一致性。我當然希望看到德優繼續進步。列車高峰持續改善。正如我們所看到的這些指標、季度或速度的提高，我們將按照我們所說的那樣對生產力計劃進行分層，這將成為我們 2024 年的重點，運行可靠的服務並對生產力進行分層。

Sure, you asked about where head count is going. Let me just put a fine point on that. I do think that our conductor training pipeline really starts to taper down here in the fourth quarter, and I'd expect that we'd probably end the year just under 600. We have enough qualified T&E here probably in the fourth quarter to start capturing meaningful growth that might be on the horizon. And it's really about balancing where those T&E are amongst our hiring locations. And we want to make sure that, we're not just adequately staffed, but we're at resilient levels in those critical locations.

當然，您問過人員數量的去向。讓我對此說一點。我確實認為我們的指揮培訓管道確實在第四季度開始逐漸減少，我預計今年結束時我們可能會略低於 600 人。我們可能在第四季度擁有足夠的合格 T&E 來開始捕獲有意義的增長可能即將到來。這實際上是為了平衡這些 T&E 在我們的招募地點中的位置。我們希望確保，我們不僅擁有足夠的人員，而且在這些關鍵地點也處於彈性水平。

But probably, I would say the other area of headcount, we're going to need some more supervisors now as you add a lot more T&E, so that's probably the remaining pickup you'll see in some of the resilience investments that we're making in the fourth quarter is really around the area of field supervision. But in terms of overall T&E, I think we're cresting here. And now we'll be able to handle more volume and start driving productivity to also take another step-up in volume absorption. So that's kind of the road map on T&E.

但我想說的是，在人員編制的另一個領域，隨著你增加更多的差旅費和娛樂費，我們現在將需要更多的主管，所以這可能是你在我們正在進行的一些彈性投資中看到的剩餘回升。第四季的製作實際上是圍繞著現場監督領域進行的。但就整體差旅費而言，我認為我們已經達到頂峰。現在，我們將能夠處理更多的容量並開始提高生產力，從而在容量吸收方面又邁出一步。這就是 T&E 的路線圖。

Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 TD Cowen。

Alan and team. Wanted to follow-up a little bit on the automotive side. You guys mentioned that there's a backlog of sort of finished vehicles that you can move. Can you give us a sense of sort of how many weeks do you think that backlog is for you guys, just in case the UAW Strike drags on longer than most people would want. And then you made a comment about near-shoring and how that look is looking really good for you potentially down the road. Do you have any numbers from your industrial development projects that you can compare in the prior years, that would be great.

艾倫和團隊。希望在汽車方面進行一些跟進。你們提到有積壓的成品車輛可以移動。您能否告訴我們您認為您們的積壓時間是多少週，以防 UAW 罷工持續的時間比大多數人希望的要長。然後你對近岸外包發表了評論，以及這種看起來對你未來可能非常有利的情況。您是否有任何工業發展項目的數據可以與前幾年進行比較，那就太好了。

And thanks for the question. This is Ed. On the automotive side, yes, there are -- there have been high shippable ground counts at a lot of places that we originate from. The strike duration is probably longer than I want to be right now, to be honest with you. And those shippable ground counts are going to dwindle over time, and we'll see where it goes. I really can't be more granular than that because of the nature of the strike, which tends to move from place to place.

謝謝你的提問。這是艾德。在汽車方面，是的，在我們的許多發源地，可運輸地面數量都很高。老實說，罷工持續時間可能比我現在想要的還要長。隨著時間的推移，可運送的地面數量將會減少，我們將看看它的去向。由於罷工的性質，我真的無法比這更具體了，罷工往往會從一個地方轉移到另一個地方。

On the industrial development side, there's over 600 projects in the pipeline right now. We've seen tremendous investment mostly in the Southeast and the Midwest, which is very beneficial for our network and for our customers. I highlighted a few of those during the prepared remarks and just to be more anecdotal about it. In September, we had 3 new lumber shippers that either originated or started receiving traffic just that month.

在產業發展方面，目前有600多個項目正在醞釀中。我們看到巨大的投資主要集中在東南部和中西部，這對我們的網路和客戶來說非常有利。我在準備好的發言中強調了其中的一些內容，只是為了提供更多軼事。 9 月份，我們迎來了 3 個新的木材托運商，他們要么在當月發起，要么開始接收流量。

And that's really highlighting, number one, the strength of that, what I would call, non-res or manufacturing construction economy, which is a big higher now than it was during the entire 2000s for the U.S. Most of that is focused east of the Mystic River, and most of that is focused again in the Midwest and the Southeast. So we think we're really well teed up really well positioned for what I think Alan has referred to as a manufacturing super cycle in the coming decade.

這確實突出了，第一，我所說的非資源或製造業建築經濟的實力，它現在比美國整個 2000 年代要高得多。其中大部分集中在東部地區。神秘河，其中大部分再次集中在中西部和東南部。因此，我們認為我們已經為艾倫所說的未來十年的製造業超級週期做好了充分準備。

Well, I certainly hope so. You mentioned 600 projects. How does that compare to say, pre-pandemic?

嗯，我當然希望如此。你提到了 600 個項目。這與大流行前相比如何？

Still elevated from pre-pandemic level. The EV supply chain is really a new frontier that's out there. And I think in one of our previous calls, I mentioned that, there been over $70 billion invested into that and about 30% of that is on our lines. Whether it's the Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, there are a lot of compelling reasons along with geopolitical instability and affordable and reliable energy to make the U.S. a very compelling place to be.

仍高於大流行前的水平。電動車供應鏈確實是一個新領域。我想在我們之前的一次電話會議中，我提到過，對此的投資超過 700 億美元，其中約 30% 是我們的資金。無論是《基礎設施法案》、《降低通貨膨脹法案》或《CHIPS 法案》，都有許多令人信服的理由，加上地緣政治的不穩定和負擔得起且可靠的能源，使美國成為一個非常引人注目的地方。

Our next question is from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Just to follow-up, the comments on the customer preference for short-haul moves and the empty move is pretty interesting. Do you have a sense that this is cyclical? Or could this be structural given evolutions of supply chains? And when the up cycle comes kind of are you confident that shippers will not choose to prefer faster, shorter haul truck moves over rail moves?

跟進一下，關於客戶對短途搬遷和空搬遷的偏好的評論非常有趣。你有沒有感覺到這是週期性的？或者考慮到供應鏈的演變，這可能是結構性的嗎？當上升週期到來時，您是否有信心托運人不會選擇更快、更短距離的卡車運輸而不是鐵路運輸？

Thanks for the question. On the international side, we saw those lanes suffer the most during the pandemic, where steamship lines were basically moving port to port and then allowing customers to pick it up there. That naturally is the part that has reverted back the most and I would say it's naturally reverted back most strongly because of the capability that we have in some of those markets like from Savannah into the Southeast, like from Charleston into the Southeast, like from Nordic into the Midwest and even from the port of New York into the Hinterland markets. We have a really good portfolio of Intermodal services. And I'll remind you that over 100 million Americans wake up every morning within 50 miles of one of our Intermodal terminals. That is a compelling strength that we think is going to allow us to succeed both on the international and the domestic side.

謝謝你的提問。在國際方面，我們看到這些航線在大流行期間受到的影響最大，輪船公司基本上是從一個港口到另一個港口，然後允許客戶在那裡提貨。這自然是恢復最多的部分，我想說，它自然恢復得最強烈，因為我們在其中一些市場上擁有能力，例如從薩凡納到東南部，從查爾斯頓到東南部，例如從北歐進入中西部，甚至從紐約港進入內陸市場。我們擁有非常好的多式聯運服務組合。我要提醒您的是，每天早晨都有超過 1 億美國人在距離我們的多式聯運航站樓 50 英里範圍內醒來。我們認為這是一種令人信服的力量，它將使我們能夠在國際和國內方面取得成功。

Yes. Look, this is a positive for us, right? This shows that we can add value into the market and even short-haul lanes where rail traditionally has not been competitive. We can do that because of our focus on productivity. We can do that because of our focus on the value of our service product. In the East, that's why we're very confident, right, that we've got a franchise that faces the fastest-growing segments of the U.S. economy.

是的。看，這對我們來說是積極的，對吧？這顯示我們可以為市場甚至是傳統上鐵路不具競爭力的短途線增加價值。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們注重生產力。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們專注於我們的服務產品的價值。在東方，這就是為什麼我們非常有信心，對吧，我們擁有面向美國經濟成長最快的領域的特許經營權。

The next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自巴斯科姆·梅傑斯和薩斯奎哈納隊。

Mark, thanks for all the detail you gave us on the Eastern Ohio spending in the plan forward. Can you talk about, without necessarily quantifying, but any -- the time line of any major charges or outflows that you have a little bit of visibility into that are still ahead of you? And is there a point where your ongoing spending tapers off, but the insurance and legal recoveries are still coming in, in your response to this incident shift from a cash flow burden to a cash flow tailwind.

馬克，感謝您向我們提供有關未來計劃中俄亥俄州東部支出的所有詳細資訊。您能談談（不一定要量化）任何重大指控或資金外流的時間線嗎？在某個時刻，您的持續支出逐漸減少，但保險和法律追償仍在繼續，您對這一事件的反應從現金流負擔轉變為現金流順風。

Okay, Bascome. Thank you very much for the question. We're certainly pleased that we're winding down the site remediation work, which obviously has been costly, as you've seen my chart and the impact there. But I do think we've got issues that we're going to be working through for several quarters to come. And it's really impossible right now, Bascome, to predict the amount or the timing and there could be a lot more developments that lead to additional costs and in particular, with regard to litigation matters, fines, penalties, legal fees, and these could end up being material.

好的，巴斯科姆。非常感謝你的提問。我們當然很高興我們正在逐步結束現場修復工作，這顯然成本高昂，正如您所看到的我的圖表及其影響。但我確實認為我們將在未來幾季內解決一些問題。巴斯科姆，現在確實不可能預測金額或時間，可能會有更多的事態發展導致額外的成本，特別是在訴訟事務、罰款、處罰、法律費用方面，這些可能會結束成為物質。

But at the same time, we do have insurance recoveries that have started. We actually got our first cash recovery, that $25 million I cited, that we recorded in the quarter, we actually got the cash last week for that. So that's good. But I don't think that you should expect to see significant meaningful cash recoveries from insurance in the near term. I think these things are really going to become protracted. But -- so it's hard to even match the time line of those inflows with what potential future outflows might be. I think with regard to insurance, in general, I think just bear in mind, it would be reasonable to expect significant premium increases going forward as a result of an incident of this size. So Hopefully, that's helpful, Bascome.

但同時，我們確實已經開始了保險賠償。我們實際上得到了第一筆現金回收，我提到的 2500 萬美元，我們在本季度記錄的，我們實際上上週得到了現金。所以這樣很好。但我認為您不應該期望在短期內從保險中看到大量有意義的現金回收。我認為這些事情真的會變得曠日持久。但是，因此甚至很難將這些資金流入的時間線與未來潛在的資金流出量相匹配。我認為就保險而言，總的來說，我認為請記住，由於如此規模的事件，預計未來保費將大幅增加是合理的。希望這對您有所幫助，巴斯科姆。

The next question is from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自本·諾蘭和史蒂菲爾。

I wanted to go back to some of the development that you're seeing from some of your customers? And specifically, it's sort of a little bit of a mixed signal. It sounds like there's a lot of people moving forward, but then the lights are not all green. And I guess I was curious if you've seen any -- as a function of higher interest rates or ambiguity in the market or whether any of those projects that are -- make up that $600 on your book here. Have any of those shifted to the right? Or is there any reason to think that maybe those aren't all full steam ahead?

我想回顧一下您從一些客戶那裡看到的一些發展？具體來說，它有點混合信號。聽起來好像有很多人在前進，但信號燈並不都是綠的。我想我很好奇你是否見過任何項目——由於利率升高或市場模糊性，或者是否有任何項目——構成了你書上的 600 美元。其中有沒有向右移動的？或者有什麼理由認為這些也許並沒有全速前進？

Well, let me start by reminding everybody, those lives are just for the fourth quarter, so to speak, near-term outlook, here's what we've seen. We've seen an acceleration in projects associated with manufacturing probably seeing some tail off or deceleration in projects associated with warehousing. And I think that's a direct function of some of the pressure that's coming from interest rates out there. But you think about whether it's aggregates, whether it's lumber, whether it's structural steel, there is a lot of pent-up demand out there to move product into these building sites. You think about any energy-intensive industry around the world, if you want to be in a place that is not only ecologically responsible, but has reliable, stable, predictable, affordable energy and great infrastructure to connect you to the rest of the world. The U.S. is compelling. The Eastern U.S. is very compelling with its customer base and the Southeast is exceptionally compelling to those.

好吧，首先讓我提醒大家，這些生活只是第四季的情況，可以這麼說，近期前景，這就是我們所看到的。我們看到與製造相關的項目有所加速，而與倉儲相關的項目可能會有所放緩或減速。我認為這是來自利率壓力的直接影響。但你想想，無論是骨材、木材或結構鋼，都有大量被壓抑的需求將產品轉移到這些建築工地。如果你想要一個不僅對生態負責，而且擁有可靠、穩定、可預測、負擔得起的能源和良好的基礎設施來將你與世界其他地方連接起來的地方，你可以考慮世界各地的任何能源密集型行業。美國是有說服力的。美國東部地區的客戶群非常引人注目，而東南部地區的客戶群尤其引人注目。

Our final question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們的最後一個問題來自大衛·弗農和伯恩斯坦。

So Mark, I wanted to go back to one of your earlier comments about sort of expecting average incrementals when volumes do turn. I'm just trying to figure out how I can get comfortable with that, thinking about costs being structurally higher and some of the mix headwinds that Ed is pointing to in terms of both the short-haul intermodal, bringing back more international empties into the network and seasoning some of these new Intermodal services. Is that average incrementals, is that sort of the day one when volume turns? Or should we be thinking about that more as the middle part of the cycle when they think about incremental margins?

馬克，我想回到您之前的評論之一，即當成交量確實發生變化時，預期平均增量。我只是想弄清楚如何適應這一點，考慮到結構性成本較高以及埃德在短途多式聯運方面指出的一些混合阻力，將更多的國際空運帶回美國網絡並完善一些新的多式聯運服務。這是平均增量嗎？這是成交量轉變的第一天嗎？或者，當他們考慮增量利潤時，我們是否應該更多地將其視為週期的中間部分？

Yes. Look, I think we've had a challenging mix environment here in the past couple of quarters that have been consuming a lot of the positive pricing -- core pricing that Ed and his team have been capturing. At some point, that mix headwind will reverse it usually does. But as we think sequentially going into Q4, we're going to have some of the structural headwinds for sure, but that should be offset by the temporary costs related to the service. So I think we're kind of neutral there.

是的。聽著，我認為過去幾季我們面臨著一個充滿挑戰的混合環境，它消耗了很多積極的定價——艾德和他的團隊一直在捕捉的核心定價。在某些時候，這種混合逆風會逆轉通常的情況。但正如我們所認為的，進入第四季度，我們肯定會遇到一些結構性阻力，但這應該被與服務相關的臨時成本所抵消。所以我認為我們對此持中立態度。

And then we're not going to have the same type of fuel headwinds that we had in the third quarter. In fact, I don't think -- I think it could be probably flat neutral, maybe slightly, slightly positive. So really, we're talking about volume dropping through. We have seen a nice uptick sequentially in volume, and that should drop through with those normal incrementals of call it, 60% or plus. So that's the way I think about Q4. And then longer term, things should play out that way. I mean, in any given quarter, obviously, mix is playing a role. And hopefully, it's not adverse going into 2024, the way it's been here in these past couple of few quarters.

然後我們就不會再遇到第三季那樣的燃料逆風。事實上，我不認為——我認為它可能是持平的中性，也許是輕微、輕微的積極。所以實際上，我們正​​在談論成交量下降。我們已經看到成交量連續大幅上升，但應該會隨著正常的增量（60% 或更高）而下降。這就是我對第四季的看法。從長遠來看，事情應該會這樣發展。我的意思是，在任何特定季度，混合顯然都在發揮作用。希望進入 2024 年不會像過去幾季那樣不利。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Alan Shaw for closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回艾倫·肖先生以徵求結束意見。

We certainly appreciate your participation and your questions this morning. Thanks for joining.

我們當然感謝您今天早上的參與和提問。感謝您的加入。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。