Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Norfolk Southern Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce Luke Nichols, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加諾福克南方公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向大家介紹投資者關係高級總監 Luke Nichols。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or future performance of Norfolk Southern Corporation, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款含義內的某些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及諾福克南方公司的未來事件或未來業績，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full discussion of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important. Our presentation slides are available at nscorp.com in the Investors section, along with a reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures.

請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告，以全面討論我們認為最重要的風險和不確定性。我們的演示幻燈片可在 nscorp.com 的“投資者”部分獲取，以及當今使用的任何非 GAAP 衡量標準與可比 GAAP 衡量標準的調節表。

Turning to Slide 3. It's now my pleasure to introduce Norfolk Southern's President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan Shaw.

轉向幻燈片 3。現在我很高興介紹諾福克南方航空的總裁兼首席執行官艾倫·肖 (Alan Shaw)。

Good morning, and welcome to our discussion of second quarter earnings. Here with me today are Mark George, our Chief Financial Officer; Paul Duncan, our Chief Operating Officer; and Ed Elkins, our Chief Marketing Officer. I would like to begin by thanking all of my colleagues at Norfolk Southern for their tremendous work this quarter. As you will hear this morning, we are delivering on our commitment to recover service quickly. We are delivering on our commitment to make a safe railroad even safer.

早上好，歡迎來到我們關於第二季度收益的討論。今天和我在一起的是我們的首席財務官馬克·喬治 (Mark George)； Paul Duncan，我們的首席運營官；以及我們的首席營銷官艾德·埃爾金斯 (Ed Elkins)。首先，我要感謝諾福克南方航空的所有同事本季度所做的巨大工作。正如您今天早上聽到的那樣，我們正在兌現快速恢復服務的承諾。我們正在履行我們的承諾，讓安全的鐵路變得更加安全。

We are delivering on our commitment to address quality of life issues for our hardworking craft railroaders, and we continue to deliver on our commitment to make things right for the people of East Palestine and the surrounding communities. We have a vision for a better way forward for Norfolk Southern. Last December, we outlined a groundbreaking strategy that balances service, productivity and growth. It is designed to create long-term value for our customers, employees, shareholders and the communities we serve.

我們正在兌現我們的承諾，解決辛勤工作的鐵路工人的生活質量問題，我們將繼續兌現我們的承諾，為東巴勒斯坦人民和周邊社區的人民創造美好的生活。我們對諾福克南方航空有一個更好的前進方向的願景。去年 12 月，我們制定了一項平衡服務、生產力和增長的突破性戰略。它旨在為我們的客戶、員工、股東和我們服務的社區創造長期價值。

Our commitment to that strategy was tested on February 3 with the derailment in East Palestine. Adversity reveals character and tests resolve. I'm proud of the way our team rose to the challenge. Our response in East Palestine has been fully aligned with our better way forward, making decisions in the best long-term interest of the community and surrounding areas has achieved significant progress. Our financial results were challenged this quarter as we noted in May that they would be. They reflect the decisive actions we have taken to advance our strategy and keep our promises in East Palestine. With every step forward, we are doing exactly what we said we would do when we announced our strategy last December.

2 月 3 日，東巴勒斯坦脫軌事件考驗了我們對該戰略的承諾。逆境考驗人的品格，考驗毅力。我為我們團隊應對挑戰的方式感到自豪。我們在東巴勒斯坦的應對措施與我們更好的前進道路完全一致，做出符合社區和周邊地區最佳長期利益的決策，並取得了重大進展。正如我們在五月份指出的那樣，本季度我們的財務業績受到了挑戰。它們反映了我們為推進我們的戰略並兌現我們在東巴勒斯坦的承諾而採取的果斷行動。每向前邁出一步，我們都在按照去年 12 月宣布戰略時所說的那樣去做。

We are investing in the long-term success of our company. With our strategy as our road map, we made significant progress in the second quarter, building the foundation for long-term value creation. This morning, I'll share a few notable examples of our progress. I'll start with service. In the first quarter, we expressed confidence that our service challenges were a temporary disruption due to deliberate management actions in response to the derailment and that our recovery plan which show results quickly.

我們正在投資於公司的長期成功。以我們的戰略為路線圖，我們在第二季度取得了重大進展，為長期價值創造奠定了基礎。今天早上，我將分享我們取得的一些值得注意的例子。我將從服務開始。在第一季度，我們表示相信，我們的服務挑戰是暫時的中斷，這是由於針對脫軌而採取的故意管理行動造成的，而且我們的恢復計劃很快就顯示出結果。

We delivered. As Paul will describe shortly, service is now at levels comparable to our best performance in 2019. When we announced our strategy last year, I indicated that we will continue to make disciplined investments in our business through economic cycles. As Mark will describe, we are doing exactly what we said we would do. We continue to expand the ranks of our frontline craft railroaders, and we are investing in locomotives, intermodal infrastructure, new sidings, technology and other assets that will drive service, productivity and growth.

我們交付了。正如保羅將很快描述的那樣，現在的服務水平與我們 2019 年的最佳業績相當。當我們去年宣布我們的戰略時，我表示我們將繼續在整個經濟周期中對我們的業務進行嚴格的投資。正如馬克將描述的那樣，我們正在按照我們所說的去做。我們繼續擴大一線工藝鐵路公司的隊伍，並投資於機車、聯運基礎設施、新鐵路、技術和其他資產，以推動服務、生產力和增長。

We are looking beyond this cycle to be ready to serve our customers and support their growth during the recovery and into the future. Another important way we moved our strategy forward in the second quarter was through our continuing progress engaging more effectively with our frontline railroaders. This is one of my top priorities as CEO, and it is a reason I spent so much time in the field. I've learned from every conversation with my craft colleagues. After the conclusion of our national labor negotiations last year, I promised to work with union leadership at the local level to address quality of life issues.

我們正在超越這個週期，準備好為我們的客戶提供服務，並支持他們在復蘇期間和未來的增長。我們在第二季度推進戰略的另一個重要方式是通過我們的持續進步，更有效地與一線鐵路人員進行接觸。這是我作為首席執行官的首要任務之一，也是我在該領域投入大量時間的原因。我從與我的工藝同事的每一次談話中學到了很多東西。去年全國勞工談判結束後，我承諾與地方工會領導層合作解決生活質量問題。

We kept that commitment, and I'm especially proud Norfolk Southern was the first Class 1 railroad to provide paid sick leave for all of our craft employees. We are building on that momentum. It was an extraordinary moment to co-author an open letter with the leaders of 12 railroad unions committing to collaborate on safety. And then a few days later, to share a stage with many of those same leaders in an all-employee town hall meeting to talk about safety and our strategy.

我們信守了這一承諾，我感到特別自豪的是，諾福克南方鐵路是第一家為所有工藝員工提供帶薪病假的一級鐵路。我們正在這一勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。與 12 個鐵路工會的領導人共同撰寫一封公開信，承諾在安全方面進行合作，這是一個非同尋常的時刻。幾天后，在全員工市政廳會議上與許多同樣的領導者同台討論安全和我們的戰略。

Our people are excited to be part of a vision that focuses on growth. Our actions this quarter to advance our strategy extend well beyond operations. They run throughout our company. In marketing, we reorganized the team to align with our strategy, positioning us to maintain the deep customer relationships that characterize Norfolk Southern while simultaneously pursuing growth in high-value markets that make sense for our network. As part of that change, we made the innovative move this quarter to create the industry's first Vice President of first mile/last mile, building an entrepreneurial spirit and growth mindset into our organizational structure, continuous productivity improvement through cost management and smart revenue growth is a core element of our strategy.

我們的員工很高興能夠成為專注於增長的願景的一部分。本季度我們為推進戰略而採取的行動遠遠超出了運營範圍。它們貫穿於我們公司的各個角落。在營銷方面，我們重組了團隊，以符合我們的戰略，使我們能夠維持諾福克南方航空特有的深厚客戶關係，同時追求對我們的網絡有意義的高價值市場的增長。作為這一變革的一部分，我們在本季度採取了創新舉措，創建了行業第一位負責第一英里/最後一英里的副總裁，將創業精神和成長心態融入我們的組織結構中，通過成本管理和智能收入增長持續提高生產力。我們戰略的核心要素。

In the second quarter, we created a new performance excellence team within operations, charged with building additional rigor and discipline into our processes. This work is foundational to our strategy. Standardizing our processes supports a high degree of planned compliance, which in turn gives us greater flexibility to innovate and test, targeted improvements that enhance consistent and reliable service and provide productivity opportunities, thus unlocking growth potential.

在第二季度，我們在運營中創建了一個新的卓越績效團隊，負責在我們的流程中建立額外的嚴格性和紀律性。這項工作是我們戰略的基礎。標準化我們的流程支持高度的計劃合規性，這反過來又為我們提供了更大的靈活性來創新和測試，有針對性的改進，增強一致和可靠的服務並提供生產力機會，從而釋放增長潛力。

Additionally, we continue to make progress this quarter, strengthening our safety culture, implementing best practices and accelerating technology improvements. We look beyond the rail industry for a partner that would challenge and inspire us. We chose Atkins Nuclear Solutions, which brings experience from the Nuclear Navy, the gold standard of operational excellence and industrial safety. Then we reached out to the leaders of the national unions representing our frontline craft railroaders, and ask them to work with us to enhance rail safety.

此外，我們本季度繼續取得進展，加強我們的安全文化，實施最佳實踐並加速技術改進。我們在鐵路行業之外尋找能夠挑戰並激勵我們的合作夥伴。我們選擇了阿特金斯核解決方案，它帶來了核海軍的經驗、卓越運營和工業安全的黃金標準。然後，我們聯繫了代表我們一線鐵路工人的全國工會領導人，請他們與我們合作，以加強鐵路安全。

Our work is producing results. As Paul will describe in more detail, our safety metrics demonstrate significant improvement. As a result of these initiatives and more, Norfolk Southern today is a railroad poised for long-term value creation. We are implementing our innovative strategic plan and [co-aligned] to serve our customers and capture growth when demand inevitably returns.

我們的工作正在產生成果。正如保羅將更詳細地描述的那樣，我們的安全指標顯示出顯著的改進。由於這些舉措及其他舉措，諾福克南方鐵路如今已成為一條能夠創造長期價值的鐵路。我們正在實施我們的創新戰略計劃，並[共同協調]為我們的客戶提供服務，並在需求不可避免地回歸時實現增長。

And now I'll turn it over to Mark for a detailed look at our second quarter results.

現在我將把它交給馬克，詳細了解我們第二季度的業績。

Thank you, Alan, and good morning to everyone. Before we get into the operating results for the quarter, Slide 6 illustrates the financial impact from the Eastern Ohio derailment. There was another $416 million of costs recorded in Q2, primarily driven by environmental cleanup activities.

謝謝你，艾倫，祝大家早上好。在我們了解本季度的運營業績之前，幻燈片 6 說明了俄亥俄州東部脫軌事件的財務影響。第二季度還記錄了 4.16 億美元的成本，主要是由環境清理活動造成的。

Our estimates reflect the significant progress we've made remediating the site and the continued efforts we expect to undertake related to further restoration efforts. While our estimates reflect our expectation that activity at the site will meaningfully moderate in the fourth quarter, any changes in the nature, extent and duration of the remaining cleanup activities and government oversight activities may impact our current estimate. Additionally, developments with respect to the healthcare fund, which we are creating for affected residents as well as the potential fines, penalties or settlements and ongoing legal expenses will all likely impact our costs in future quarters.

我們的估計反映了我們在修復該地點所取得的重大進展，以及我們期望為進一步修復工作而繼續做出的努力。雖然我們的估計反映了我們的預期，即該地點的活動將在第四季度顯著放緩，但剩余清理活動和政府監督活動的性質、範圍和持續時間的任何變化都可能會影響我們當前的估計。此外，我們為受影響居民設立的醫療保健基金的發展以及潛在的罰款、處罰或和解以及持續的法律費用都可能會影響我們未來幾個季度的成本。

Of the $803 million recorded so far this year, only $287 million of the cash has been paid through June 30. We currently expect about half of our accrued balance to be paid over the remainder of the year with the rest in 2024 or later. Our 2023 results do not reflect potential recoveries from third parties or under our insurance coverage. Importantly, you will see in the quarter that we have started the process of pursuing recovery from third parties, a process we will continue to explore where appropriate in connection with our other lawsuits.

今年迄今為止記錄的 8.03 億美元中，只有 2.87 億美元的現金已在 6 月 30 日之前支付。我們目前預計應計餘額的一半左右將在今年剩餘時間內支付，其餘的將在 2024 年或以後支付。我們 2023 年的業績並不反映第三方或我們保險範圍內的潛在賠償。重要的是，您將在本季度看到我們已經開始向第三方追償的流程，我們將在適當的情況下繼續探索與我們的其他訴訟相關的流程。

As for our insurance coverage, we expect to begin filing insurance claims here in the third quarter. This will be the first of many claims that will be made over the coming quarters. To remind everyone, we can only make claims upon payments being made not based on accruals. As you can imagine, insurance reimbursements and third-party recoveries will take time to materialize.

至於我們的保險範圍，我們預計將在第三季度開始在這裡提出保險索賠。這將是未來幾個季度提出的眾多索賠中的第一個。提醒大家，我們只能在付款時提出索賠，而不是基於應計費用。正如您可以想像的那樣，保險報銷和第三方追償將需要一段時間才能實現。

Turning to Slide 7. Here, we illustrate the accounting impacts of the incident and response on our key metrics for Q2. At the bottom, you see the adjusted results excluding those impacts. Revenues were down 8% to last year, while adjusted operating expense was flattish. It's important to understand that the incident meaningfully harmed revenues in the quarter because of the resulting service disruption, but that impact is not adjusted from our GAAP figures and mitigating those service impacts cost us money to fix and those costs are also not accounted for in the $416 million operating expense adjustment.

轉向幻燈片 7。在這裡，我們說明了該事件和響應對我們第二季度關鍵指標的會計影響。在底部，您可以看到排除這些影響的調整後的結果。收入比去年下降 8%，而調整後的運營費用則持平。重要的是要了解，由於由此造成的服務中斷，該事件嚴重損害了本季度的收入，但這種影響並未根據我們的 GAAP 數據進行調整，並且減輕這些服務影響需要我們花錢來修復，而且這些成本也沒有計入4.16 億美元的運營費用調整。

Consequently, the adjusted operating ratio was 66.7%. Had we been able to move a couple of hundred million more of revenue with our Q2 cost structure, our margins would have been much stronger. On an adjusted basis, operating income was down 22%, net Income was down 18%, and EPS was down 14%.

因此，調整後的開工率為66.7%。如果我們能夠通過第二季度的成本結構增加幾億美元的收入，我們的利潤率將會更高。調整後的營業收入下降 22%，淨利潤下降 18%，每股收益下降 14%。

Moving to Slide 8. Adjusted operating expenses for the quarter were up slightly on a year-over-year basis. Compensation and benefits were up $79 million or 13% in the quarter due to wage inflation and ongoing hiring to primarily shore up the remaining challenged locations on our network and in support of our strategic plan to build long-term network resiliency.

轉到幻燈片 8。該季度調整後的運營費用同比略有上升。由於工資上漲和持續招聘，本季度的薪酬和福利增加了 7900 萬美元，即 13%，主要是為了支撐我們網絡上剩餘​​的面臨挑戰的地點，並支持我們建立長期網絡彈性的戰略計劃。

Materials and other expenses in the quarter were up $33 million or 19% driven primarily by a continuation of the locomotive related work we discussed during the first quarter call, bringing part of the stored fleet back into service to successfully accelerate the network, which you will hear more about from Paul.

本季度的材料和其他費用增加了 3300 萬美元，即 19%，這主要是由於我們在第一季度電話會議中討論的機車相關工作的繼續進行，使部分存儲的車隊重新投入使用，以成功加速網絡，您將從保羅那裡聽聽更多的事情。

Additionally, in other, the quarter was impacted by lower gains on the sale of property. Purchased services and rents were up $25 million or 5% this quarter as the challenge network created more headwinds to the category in addition to our continued investments in technology. Depreciation was up $17 million in the quarter, in line with our guidance.

此外，在其他方面，該季度還受到房地產銷售收益下降的影響。本季度購買的服務和租金增加了 2500 萬美元，即 5%，因為除了我們對技術的持續投資之外，挑戰網絡給該類別帶來了更多阻力。本季度折舊增加 1700 萬美元，與我們的指導一致。

Mitigating these increases were fuel expenses which were down $145 million or 36% in the quarter.

燃料費用減少了這些增長，本季度減少了 1.45 億美元，即 36%。

Turning to Slide 9. Let's look at the adjusted P&L results below the line. Partially mitigating the $279 million reduction in adjusted operating income was a $71 million increase in other income, driven by favorable investment returns and compares from company-owned life insurance. Net income and EPS were down 18% and 14%, respectively, in the quarter.

轉到幻燈片 9。讓我們看看線下方調整後的盈虧結果。由於良好的投資回報和公司自有人壽保險的比較，其他收入增加了 7100 萬美元，部分緩解了調整後營業收入 2.79 億美元的減少。本季度淨利潤和每股收益分別下降 18% 和 14%。

Moving to free cash flow and shareholder returns on Slide 10. Through the first 6 months, free cash flow was lower by $276 million due to combined pressure from the derailment-related expenditures as well as investments in roadway and equipment. Shareholder distributions during the first half were $918 million, thanks to our solid dividend and share repurchase activity. I'll now turn it over to Paul for a discussion on our operations.

轉到幻燈片 10 上的自由現金流和股東回報。前 6 個月，由於脫軌相關支出以及道路和設備投資的綜合壓力，自由現金流減少了 2.76 億美元。得益於我們穩健的股息和股票回購活動，上半年股東分配額為 9.18 億美元。現在我將把它交給保羅討論我們的運作。

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Let's jump right into our safety update on Slide 12. Everything starts with safety. We continue to make progress this year enhancing safety. Our injury frequency ratio is trending down 12% year-to-date versus last year. Our accident rates for the first half of the year is also down from prior years and our mainline train accident rate is trending improved 40% year-to-date versus last year.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早上好。讓我們直接進入幻燈片 12 上的安全更新。一切都從安全開始。今年我們在加強安全方面繼續取得進展。今年迄今為止，我們的受傷頻率比去年下降了 12%。我們今年上半年的事故率也比往年有所下降，今年迄今為止，我們的干線列車事故率比去年下降了 40%。

I want to take a moment to thank our leaders and our craft colleagues for collectively enhancing safety and driving these outcomes for our team, the communities we serve and our customers. We'll transition to our progress in safely delivering a reliable and resilient service product on Slide 13. You will recall during our last earnings call that we expected service to improve in summer and we have delivered on that promise. We've successfully restored our double-track mainline through East Palestine in a safe and environmentally appropriate way and we wasted no time resetting network performance levels our customers expect in this quarter between the Midwest and the Northeast.

我想花點時間感謝我們的領導者和工藝同事共同提高安全性並為我們的團隊、我們服務的社區和客戶推動這些成果。我們將在幻燈片 13 上過渡到我們在安全交付可靠且有彈性的服務產品方面取得的進展。您會記得在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們預計服務將在夏季得到改善，並且我們已經兌現了這一承諾。我們以安全且環保的方式成功恢復了穿越東巴勒斯坦的雙軌幹線，並且我們不遺餘力地重置了客戶本季度期望的中西部和東北部之間的網絡性能水平。

We have significantly improved train velocity, dwell and service across our network to 2-year best resulting from these improvements. With service improved, our focus now is driving further reliability, productivity and resiliency in our network aligned with our strategic vision outlined in December.

通過這些改進，我們顯著提高了整個網絡的列車速度、停留時間和服務，達到了兩年來的最佳水平。隨著服務的改善，我們現在的重點是進一步提高網絡的可靠性、生產力和彈性，以符合我們 12 月概述的戰略願景。

Touching on Slide 14. Now, what we told you would be an important measure of our service recovery reduction in cars online. Following the first quarter service interruptions, we had an inventory buildup. We set in place a plan to work down to build up as quickly as possible while also restoring our mainline and overall network conditions. We successfully executed on that plan and railcars are now cycling throughout our network faster than they have since before 2022, achieving greater railcar fleet productivity.

談到幻燈片 14。現在，我們告訴您的是我們減少在線汽車服務恢復的一項重要措施。第一季度服務中斷後，我們的庫存增加了。我們制定了一項計劃，盡快進行建設，同時恢復我們的主線和整體網絡狀況。我們成功執行了該計劃，現在軌道車在我們網絡中的運行速度比 2022 年之前更快，從而實現了更高的軌道車車隊生產力。

Turning to Slide 15 for an update on our hiring progress. Our efforts to rightsize our [T&E] base have continued the first half of this year. We are now at a point at which the training pipeline has crested and will begin to taper down over the back half of the year. We are committed to maintaining an appropriately-sized workforce to drive reliability and long-term resilience as part of our strategy.

請參閱幻燈片 15，了解我們招聘進展的最新信息。今年上半年，我們仍在繼續努力調整 [T&E] 基地規模。現在，我們的培訓渠道已經達到頂峰，並將在今年下半年開始逐漸減少。作為我們戰略的一部分，我們致力於維持適當規模的員工隊伍，以提高可靠性和長期彈性。

Our productivity metrics are shown on Slide 16. Our short-term service challenges described earlier contributed to productivity impacts as we work to restore service and velocity. Mark mentioned earlier that we return to serve as a portion of our locomotive fleet to expedite our service recovery. With service and locomotive velocity much improved as we enter summer, we have now rightsized our road fleet and are now achieving velocity near 200 miles per day with our locomotives.

我們的生產力指標如幻燈片 16 所示。在我們努力恢復服務和速度時，前面描述的短期服務挑戰對生產力產生了影響。馬克之前提到，我們將返回作為機車車隊的一部分，以加快我們的服務恢復。隨著進入夏季，服務和機車速度大大提高，我們現在已經調整了公路車隊的規模，現在我們的機車速度已接近每天 200 英里。

As part of our strategy to become not only reliable, but more resilient we have allocated a portion of our road locomotive fleet to surge capacity to be hot and ready to run at key locations of our network when needed. We continue to have a solid outlook for our locomotive fleet. Our DC to AC program is ongoing, which will provide us with a capacity dividend not only in terms of AC traction but also improvements in fuel efficiency.

作為我們不僅變得可靠而且更具彈性的戰略的一部分，我們已經分配了部分公路機車車隊來增加容量，以便在需要時在我們網絡的關鍵位置處於熱狀態並準備運行。我們對機車車隊的前景繼續看好。我們的直流轉交流計劃正在進行中，這不僅將為我們帶來交流牽引方面的容量紅利，而且還能提高燃油效率。

Transitioning to the workforce. T&E productivity was challenged due to the effort we put in place to accelerate the network, coupled with the contraction in volumes. Moving forward, we expect to improve T&E productivity through a variety of initiatives improving velocity, absorbing volume on existing trains and normalizing our CT pipeline.

過渡到勞動力市場。由於我們為加速網絡而付出的努力以及數量的萎縮，差旅和娛樂的生產力受到了挑戰。展望未來，我們希望通過各種舉措來提高 T&E 生產力，包括提高速度、吸收現有列車的運量以及規範我們的 CT 管道。

Lastly, on fuel, we took a step back for the first time in seven quarters. This was largely due to lower velocity and fewer GTMs on the network as we are restoring service. We are very confident that our initiatives that have been paying regular dividends will continue driving us towards further fuel efficiency as we continue to see the benefits of an improving network.

最後，在燃料方面，我們七個季度以來首次後退了一步。這主要是由於我們正在恢復服務時網絡上的速度較低且 GTM 較少。我們非常有信心，隨著我們不斷看到網絡改善帶來的好處，我們定期帶來紅利的舉措將繼續推動我們進一步提高燃油效率。

Moving forward on Slide 17. Our focus will be on safely and productively delivering reliable and resilient service. Every conversation will start with safety as we continue to enhance it through the initiatives that we discussed. With service improved, our goal now is to continue to build further reliability and resiliency in the network but to do so productively. Velocity and service improvements will provide us further opportunities to leverage and spin our assets while pushing to drive further process standardization into our scheduled network to drive productivity.

繼續幻燈片 17。我們的重點將是安全、高效地提供可靠、有彈性的服務。每一次對話都將從安全開始，我們將通過我們討論的舉措繼續加強安全。隨著服務的改進，我們現在的目標是繼續提高網絡的可靠性和彈性，但要高效地做到這一點。速度和服務的改進將為我們提供更多機會來利用和旋轉我們的資產，同時推動我們的預定網絡進一步實現流程標準化，以提高生產力。

This is the primary focus of our new performance excellence team, which was created this year. We will also continue to leverage the capital investments we have made to increase productivity, including recent siding projects between Chicago and Cincinnati that will allow us to increase train length and capacity in this quarter. Thank you, and I will now hand it off to Ed Elkins.

這是我們今年成立的新績效卓越團隊的主要關注點。我們還將繼續利用我們為提高生產力而進行的資本投資，包括最近芝加哥和辛辛那提之間的支線項目，這將使我們能夠在本季度增加列車長度和運力。謝謝，我現在將其交給埃德·埃爾金斯。

Thanks, Paul, and good morning to everybody on the call. Beginning on Slide 19, I'll review our commercial results for the quarter. Now as we expected, the second quarter came with challenges related to ongoing soft freight demand, lower commodity prices and still recovering service levels. In total, we generated just under $3 billion in revenue for the quarter, down 8% from the second quarter of last year and that's driven by a 6% drop in volume and lower revenue from fuel and accessorials.

謝謝保羅，祝所有參加電話會議的人早上好。從幻燈片 19 開始，我將回顧本季度的商業業績。正如我們預期的那樣，第二季度面臨著與持續疲軟的貨運需求、較低的大宗商品價格以及仍在恢復的服務水平相關的挑戰。總的來說，我們本季度的收入略低於 30 億美元，比去年第二季度下降 8%，這是由於銷量下降 6% 以及燃料和配件收入下降所致。

ARPU was also down year-over-year. However, revenue per unit less fuel improved 1% reflecting gains in price and favorable mix, and that's driven by tempered demand for intermodal and utility coal. I'd like to note here that underneath this favorable overall mix narrative, there was significant negative mix within markets that tempered overall revenue per unit performance, which I'll note below. Now merchandise results were varied as favorable conditions in the markets for automotive and agriculture products were offset by headwinds in chemicals markets. And that's a good example of the challenging RPU mix within markets that I just mentioned.

ARPU 也同比下降。然而，每單位減去燃料的收入增長了 1%，反映出價格上漲和有利的組合，這是由多式聯運和公用事業煤炭需求減弱所推動的。我想在此指出，在這種有利的整體組合敘述之下，市場內存在顯著的負面組合，從而影響了單位業績的整體收入，我將在下面指出。現在，由於汽車和農產品市場的有利條件被化學品市場的逆風所抵消，商品結果各不相同。這是我剛才提到的市場中具有挑戰性的 RPU 組合的一個很好的例子。

Automotive volumes were driven by robust finished vehicle production and agriculture shipments were strong due to new lane offerings and a weak local crop in the Southeast. Offsetting this growth was weakness in several of our chemical commodities as well as challenges to meet customer demand in key markets such as metals, aggregates and finished vehicles.

汽車銷量受到強勁的整車生產的推動，而農業出貨量則由於新車道的供應和東南部當地作物疲軟而強勁。我們的幾種化學商品的疲軟以及滿足金屬、骨料和成品汽車等關鍵市場客戶需求的挑戰抵消了這一增長。

Taken together, total merchandise volume and revenue for the second quarter came in 1% below prior year levels. Revenue per unit was flat year-over-year, but RPU less fuel grew 2%, which makes 32 out of the last 33 quarters that we've achieved growth in this metric. And I think that is a clear signal that our diverse portfolio and strong pricing discipline are delivering results.

總的來說，第二季度的商品總量和收入比去年同期下降了 1%。每單位收入同比持平，但扣除燃油後的 RPU 增長了 2%，這使得過去 33 個季度中有 32 個季度我們在該指標上實現了增長。我認為這是一個明確的信號，表明我們多元化的產品組合和嚴格的定價紀律正在取得成果。

Turning to Intermodal. Continued market headwinds were felt the strongest in our domestic lines of business where volumes declined 14% year-over-year as weak freight demand, high inventories and excess truck capacity weighed on performance. Conversely, in a continuation of the first quarter trend, international volumes increased 1% year-over-year and 5.8% sequentially over last quarter.

轉向聯運。我們的國內業務所感受到的持續市場逆風最為強烈，貨運量同比下降 14%，原因是貨運需求疲軟、庫存高企和卡車運力過剩影響了業績。相反，國際銷量延續第一季度的趨勢，同比增長 1%，比上季度環比增長 5.8%。

As we guided to before, our customers have continued to shift highway freight back into IPI services and storage charges have declined as supply chain fluidity and container dwell have returned to pre-pandemic normalcy. As you would expect with this performance, Intermodal is another segment where ARPU mix with end markets was challenging for us. Both RPU and RPU less fuel were down significantly due to lower revenue from fuel surcharge and storage charges.

正如我們之前所指導的，我們的客戶繼續將公路貨運轉回 IPI 服務，並且隨著供應鏈流動性和集裝箱停留時間恢復到大流行前的正常狀態，倉儲費用也有所下降。正如您所期望的那樣，多式聯運是 ARPU 與終端市場混合對我們構成挑戰的另一個細分市場。由於燃油附加費和倉儲費收入下降，RPU 和不含 RPU 的燃油均大幅下降。

Lastly, coal volume was flat year-over-year, but coal revenue fell 4% as RPU declined. Utility volumes were down 17% year-over-year due to historically low natural gas prices and elevated stockpiles. These declines were offset by gains in export shipments as a result of increased production and robust overseas demand. Although export volumes increased, the mix between export steam and export metallurgical coal shifted unfavorably and comparatively lower seaborne coal prices yielded lower revenue per unit.

最後，煤炭產量同比持平，但煤炭收入因 RPU 下降而下降 4%。由於天然氣價格處於歷史低位且庫存增加，公用事業發電量同比下降 17%。這些下降被產量增加和海外需求強勁導致的出口出貨量增長所抵消。儘管出口量有所增加，但出口蒸汽和出口冶金煤之間的結構發生了不利變化，相對較低的海運煤炭價格導致單位收入較低。

Again, a key segment where ARPU mix within markets was a headwind. With that, let's turn to Slide 20 and review our outlook for the remainder of 2023. Overall, we're confident that our service product positions us to realize growth when market conditions improve. And as the year progresses, we are focused on pursuing the opportunities in markets that have the highest potential for growth for Norfolk Southern. We expect to increase our share in these markets as an improving service product and a sharply focused organization allows us to realize more of the ongoing demand for our services.

同樣，ARPU 在市場中混合的一個關鍵部分是一個逆風。接下來，讓我們轉向幻燈片 20，回顧我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望。總體而言，我們相信，我們的服務產品使我們能夠在市場狀況改善時實現增長。隨著時間的推移，我們將專注於在諾福克南方航空最具增長潛力的市場中尋找機會。我們希望通過不斷改進的服務產品來增加我們在這些市場的份額，而一個高度集中的組織使我們能夠滿足更多對我們服務的持續需求。

Beginning with merchandise markets, conditions vary by individual market, and we see strong levels of nonresidential construction as reshoring and infrastructure projects increase which will drive strength in metals and construction volume. Pent-up demand for U.S. light vehicles will continue to support metals and automotive volumes. However, we expect continued weakness in our chemicals markets in the second half.

從商品市場開始，各個市場的情況各不相同，隨著回流和基礎設施項目的增加，我們看到非住宅建築的強勁水平，這將推動金屬和建築量的走強。對美國輕型汽車的壓抑需求將繼續支撐金屬和汽車銷量。然而，我們預計下半年化學品市場將繼續疲軟。

Turning to Intermodal. We expect international volumes to continue its growth trend with an expected rebound in import volumes and the continued share growth of IPI. Storage charges will continue to be a revenue and RPU headwind compared to last year. On the domestic side, overall growth will be dependent on the U.S. consumer, retail inventory levels and the truck market.

轉向聯運。我們預計國際貿易量將繼續其增長趨勢，進口量預計將反彈，IPI 份額將持續增長。與去年相比，存儲費用將繼續成為收入和 RPU 的阻力。在國內方面，整體增長將取決於美國消費者、零售庫存水平和卡車市場。

We worked really hard with our best-in-class channel partners to sustain our service levels throughout the quarter during the crucial climax of bid season, and we're hearing from our key partners that our strategy is helping them increase their share of bid wins. We look forward to leveraging our capacity to realize this growth as market conditions improve.

我們與一流的渠道合作夥伴一起努力工作，以在投標季節的關鍵高潮期間維持整個季度的服務水平，我們從主要合作夥伴那裡得知，我們的戰略正在幫助他們提高中標份額。隨著市場狀況的改善，我們期待利用我們的能力實現這一增長。

And finally, within our coal markets, we expect overall volume growth as continued strength in export markets more than offset weakness in utility coal. Coal production levels at NS-served mines will drive growth in export shipments, although we do expect lower seaborne coal prices to negatively impact RPU. The utility outlook is largely dependent on the weather, on existing stockpiles and natural gas prices. The net result is we expect total coal RPU to sequentially decline by a low double-digit percentage.

最後，在我們的煤炭市場中，我們預計整體銷量將增長，因為出口市場的持續走強足以抵消公用煤炭的疲軟。儘管我們確實預計海運煤炭價格下降會對 RPU 產生負面影響，但 NS 服務礦山的煤炭生產水平將推動出口出貨量的增長。公用事業前景在很大程度上取決於天氣、現有庫存和天然氣價格。最終結果是我們預計煤炭 RPU 總量將連續下降兩位數百分比。

Despite uncertainty across the economy, our focus on service, productivity and growth remains at the core of our strategy, and we're confident in our ability to grow our franchise and deliver value for our customers. On that note, I'd like to draw your attention to Slide 21, which highlights the strength of Norfolk Southern's network and our ability to drive growth both now and in the future.

儘管整個經濟存在不確定性，但我們對服務、生產力和增長的關注仍然是我們戰略的核心，我們對發展我們的特許經營權並為客戶創造價值的能力充滿信心。關於這一點，我想提請您注意幻燈片 21，該幻燈片強調了諾福克南方航空網絡的實力以及我們推動現在和未來增長的能力。

The ecosystem for electric vehicles has been steadily developing in recent years as demonstrated by last quarter's announcement of the new Scout Motors plant on Norfolk Southern. We are focused on all facets of this emerging EV supply chain, including the EV battery and battery components.

近年來，電動汽車生態系統一直在穩步發展，上季度宣佈在諾福克南部建立新的 Scout Motors 工廠就證明了這一點。我們專注於這一新興電動汽車供應鏈的各個方面，包括電動汽車電池和電池組件。

Over the last 18 months, more than $70 billion in new investment has been announced for building out EV battery manufacturing plants across North America. Our commercial team has worked to help locate nearly 1/3 of that investment on our network, including most recently in the second quarter, a new $3 billion General Motors and Samsung battery manufacturing plant in Indiana, on a Norfolk Southern main line. Norfolk Southern's network is well positioned for future industrial development.

在過去 18 個月中，已經宣布了超過 700 億美元的新投資，用於在北美建設電動汽車電池製造工廠。我們的商業團隊努力幫助在我們的網絡上找到近 1/3 的投資，包括最近在第二季度在印第安納州諾福克南部幹線上新建的價值 30 億美元的通用汽車和三星電池製造廠。諾福克南方航空的網絡為未來的工業發展做好了準備。

We reached 60% of the U.S. population and cover 50% of our manufacturing base. We look forward to amplifying that strength through continued industrial development wins. Year-to-date, our industrial development team has reported $2.6 billion in industry investment that's been completed along Norfolk Southern lines, bringing 3,200 new jobs to the local communities that we serve. We continue to invest in site readiness for our highest potential industrial sites, and we're confident our diverse portfolio of shovel-ready sites combined with the strength of our network, we'll continue to land new opportunities across our network.

我們覆蓋了美國 60% 的人口並覆蓋了 50% 的製造基地。我們期待通過持續的工業發展勝利來增強這一實力。今年迄今為止，我們的工業發展團隊報告稱，諾福克南方鐵路沿線已完成 26 億美元的工業投資，為我們服務的當地社區帶來了 3,200 個新就業崗位。我們繼續投資於最具潛力的工業場地的場地準備工作，我們相信，我們多樣化的準備就緒場地組合與我們網絡的實力相結合，我們將繼續在我們的網絡中獲得新的機會。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Alan to bring us home.

這樣，我會把它交還給艾倫，讓他帶我們回家。

Thanks, Ed. Let's turn to Slide 22. As we have reached midpoint of 2023, I want to provide you with an update to our outlook. Although we entered the year expecting to achieve revenues comparable to 2022, the first half revenue shortfalls require us to modify our full year outlook. We now anticipate revenue to be down at least 3% in 2023 implying some modest volume improvements in the back half. We're also expecting modestly higher capital expenditures for the year as we accelerate investments in safety, service, productivity and growth.

謝謝，艾德。讓我們轉向幻燈片 22。2023 年已經過半，我想向您提供我們的最新展望。儘管我們今年預計將實現與 2022 年相當的收入，但上半年收入的不足要求我們修改全年展望。我們現在預計 2023 年收入將至少下降 3%，這意味著下半年銷量將有所改善。隨著我們加快安全、服務、生產力和增長方面的投資，我們預計今年的資本支出將小幅上升。

Finally, I want to close our prepared remarks by reconfirming the commitment of the entire Norfolk Southern team to delivering long-term shareholder value through top-tier revenue and earnings growth at industry competitive margins with balanced capital deployment. I'm confident that our strategy will help us achieve our full potential, and I'm encouraged by our progress and investments. We will now open the call to questions. Operator?

最後，我想通過重申整個諾福克南方團隊的承諾來結束我們準備好的發言，即通過具有行業競爭力的利潤率的頂級收入和盈利增長以及平衡的資本部署來實現長期股東價值。我相信我們的戰略將幫助我們充分發揮潛力，我對我們的進步和投資感到鼓舞。我們現在開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基（Brandon Oglenski）。

Alan, I guess, can you give us an update on lessons learned here as you've reworked your train makeup, I think, through the second quarter? And how has that impacted your operational planning going forward? And does that create incremental capacity for you guys if markets recover, which I think Mark was alluding to earlier.

艾倫，我想，你能給我們介紹一下你在第二季度重新設計火車結構時所學到的最新經驗教訓嗎？這對您未來的運營計劃有何影響？如果市場復甦，這是否會為你們創造增量產能，我認為馬克之前已經提到過。

Brandon, we remade our train makeup and starting in March. And we guided to the fact that we would expect service to improve as we moved out of the second quarter and into the third quarter coupled with the fact that we're going to get the second track back in East Palestine that's absolutely what we delivered. Our service is on the trajectory that we had guided to. And what we're seeing as a result over the last couple of weeks is real strength in our volume sequentially and also relative to the rest of the industry.

布蘭登，我們從三月份開始重新設計了火車妝容。我們意識到，隨著我們從第二季度進入第三季度，我們預計服務會得到改善，而且我們將在東巴勒斯坦恢復第二條賽道，這絕對是我們所交付的。我們的服務正沿著我們所引導的軌道進行。過去幾週我們看到的結果是我們的銷量連續增長以及相對於行業其他公司而言的真正實力。

With respect to our updated operating plan and train makeup rules, it gives us an opportunity to create more capacity as we've increased the utilization of distributed power which helps our cost structure, helps our service product and helps our capacity for growth.

就我們更新的運營計劃和列車組成規則而言，它為我們提供了創造更多產能的機會，因為我們增加了分佈式能源的利用率，這有助於我們的成本結構，有助於我們的服務產品並有助於我們的產能增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Just before I get to the question, two clarifications, Mark. You said 1% ARPU gain ex fuel on mix and price. So if mix was positive, are you saying pricing is less than 1%? Or are you saying intra-category mix hides the pricing gain? And then second, you mentioned the real estate gain. Did you mention what it was in the quarter? And then my question is on carload growth. Alan, you mentioned accelerating growth in the second half of the year. Peers are talking about RTMs or industrial production being down slightly. I just want to understand how you're targeting that acceleration in the second half, maybe detail that a little more.

在我開始回答這個問題之前，我需要澄清兩點，馬克。你說 1% 的 ARPU 因組合和價格而增加（不含燃油）。那麼，如果混合是積極的，你是說定價低於 1% 嗎？或者您是說類別內的混合隱藏了定價收益？其次，您提到了房地產收益。您有沒有提到本季度的情況？然後我的問題是關於車輛裝載量的增長。艾倫，您提到下半年加速增長。同行們正在談論 RTM 或工業生產略有下降。我只是想了解你們如何瞄準下半年的加速，也許更詳細一些。

Yes, Ken, we were talking about intra-category price there. And then with regard to the real estate gains in the quarter, I think we said it was $19 million absolute in the quarter itself. Go ahead.

是的，肯，我們正在談論那裡的類別內價格。然後，關於本季度的房地產收益，我認為我們說過本季度的絕對收益為 1900 萬美元。前進。

Yes. Ken. And with respect to volumes moving forward, clearly, our volumes were pressured in the second quarter and in the last 2 months of the first quarter because of the service degradation. That's why it was really important for us to hit the service targets and the service recovery trajectory that we had committed to publicly and with our customers. We've done that. And as a result, our equipment is turning faster and customers are talking to us about incorporating Norfolk Southern into their long-term supply chain solutions. Ed, do you want to give a little bit more color on that?

是的。肯.就未來的銷量而言，顯然，由於服務質量下降，我們的銷量在第二季度和第一季度的最後兩個月受到了壓力。這就是為什麼實現我們向客戶公開承諾的服務目標和服務恢復軌跡對我們來說非常重要。我們已經做到了。因此，我們的設備運轉速度更快，客戶正在與我們討論將諾福克南方航空納入他們的長期供應鏈解決方案。 Ed，你想對此多加一些色彩嗎？

Yes. When we look at our volumes compared to the other Class 1s over the course of 2023, our volumes outperformed the industry average for 9 of the first 10 weeks of the year and we were feeling good. And then as you know, the network slowed and congestion build up, our performance suffered. But as we started to speed up, our relative performance also has started to recover.

是的。當我們將 2023 年期間我們的銷量與其他 1 類產品進行比較時，我們的銷量在今年前 10 周中有 9 週的表現優於行業平均水平，我們感覺良好。然後如您所知，網絡速度變慢並且擁塞加劇，我們的性能受到影響。但隨著我們開始加速，我們的相對錶現也開始恢復。

And over the last 11 weeks, I think this is important. We've outperformed the industry average for 9 of those weeks. And the outperformance that we've been experiencing is accelerating placing us in the top 2 of the Class I railroads for 4 of the 5 last weeks. And I will tell you, I spoke about it in the prepared remarks, there are a few bright spots out there where we're focused on delivering growth for our customers through better service. That includes in the automotive industry where we see clear line of sight on continued demand.

在過去 11 周里，我認為這很重要。其中 9 週我們的表現優於行業平均水平。我們所經歷的優異表現正在加速使我們在過去 5 周中有 4 週躋身 I 類鐵路的前 2 名。我會告訴你，我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點，有一些亮點，我們專注於通過更好的服務為客戶帶來增長。這包括在汽車行業，我們對持續需求有著清晰的認識。

And then you think about infrastructure spending that's going on all around the country, but particularly in our footprint as well as residential construction that's really tied to new home construction because people with low interest rates are just staying in those houses. So folks who need a home are going out and building a new one, we see some clear bright spots there.

然後你會想到全國各地正在進行的基礎設施支出，尤其是我們的足跡以及與新房建設真正相關的住宅建設，因為低利率的人只是住在這些房子裡。因此，需要住房的人們正在出去建造新房子，我們在那裡看到了一些明顯的亮點。

And the real key is, we're focused on those markets. We're present in those markets with our sales teams and our operating teams. And as the network continues to speed up, we're going to deliver more value for those customers.

真正的關鍵是，我們專注於這些市場。我們在這些市場上設有銷售團隊和運營團隊。隨著網絡不斷加速，我們將為這些客戶提供更多價值。

Our next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Just wondering what inning we are here in terms of the sequential drawdown in intermodal yields. I assume you've got some new pricing that's being implemented on July 1. You've got more runoff of the storage fees. What's the right way to think about intermodal yields from here? And then Mark, there's a lot of like puts and takes on profit cadence from here. On one side, there's a lot of service issues and inefficiencies related to that in the second quarter, but then you've got the coal yield dropping off, maybe a little bit more yield pressure on fuel that impacts operating income.

只是想知道，就多式聯運收益率的連續下降而言，我們現在處於什麼階段。我假設你們有一些將於 7 月 1 日實施的新定價。你們有更多的倉儲費徑流。從這裡考慮多式聯運收益的正確方法是什麼？然後，馬克，這裡有很多類似看跌期權和看跌期權的盈利節奏。一方面，第二季度存在很多與此相關的服務問題和效率低下，但隨後煤炭產量下降，燃料產量壓力可能會更大，從而影響營業收入。

I mean do we grow operating income off of the second quarter in the back half? If you can just kind of give us some of the puts and takes there.

我的意思是，我們下半年的營業收入會比第二季度有所增長嗎？如果您能給我們一些看跌期權和看跌期權的話。

Ed, you want to take the first question?

艾德，你想回答第一個問題嗎？

Yes. Yes. If you want to -- let's talk about RPU first, particularly within intermodal. Core pricing remains positive for Intermodal. And more importantly, I think I highlighted it during the prepared remarks, the mix within Intermodal has been pretty dynamic. And because of our success in those international markets and delivering value through more IPI business, that mix is negative for overall ARPU within intermodal.

是的。是的。如果您願意，我們先談談 RPU，特別是在聯運領域。多式聯運的核心定價仍然樂觀。更重要的是，我想我在準備好的發言中強調了這一點，多式聯運內部的組合非常活躍。由於我們在這些國際市場上取得了成功，並通過更多 IPI 業務創造了價值，這種組合對聯運內的整體 ARPU 產生負面影響。

Sure. Again, when we think about supply chain congestion, I think it's pretty much gone. I'd say supply chains are really about as fluid now as they were prior to the pandemic. And in fact, there may be a little bit more capacity. We monitor warehouse activity pretty closely and the supply chains index -- or excuse me, the Logistics Managers Index, which we pay attention to noted that warehouse capacity has increased at the fastest rate since the start of the pandemic. It's a challenge, and we've seen those storage charges roll off and essentially turn to Really a pre-pandemic normal.

當然。再說一次，當我們考慮供應鏈擁堵時，我認為它幾乎已經消失了。我想說，現在的供應鏈實際上和大流行之前一樣流動。事實上，容量可能還多一點。我們非常密切地監控倉庫活動和供應鏈指數——或者對不起，我們關注的物流經理指數指出，倉庫容量以自大流行開始以來最快的速度增長。這是一個挑戰，我們已經看到這些存儲費用下降並基本上變成了大流行前的常態。

You've also seen us take share from truck in the international market.

您也看到我們在國際市場上搶占了卡車的份額。

Yes, that is what I was referring to with increased IPI shipments. The international markets are looking for ways to add value for their customers and the service we're providing in IPI is a clear way for them to do that.

是的，這就是我所說的 IPI 出貨量增加。國際市場正在尋找為其客戶增加價值的方法，而我們在 IPI 中提供的服務是他們實現這一目標的明確方法。

Amit, let me go through a little bit of the first half, second half dynamic because there are some changes here for sure. We do expect some modestly higher volumes from the better service product we have here in the back half. So that's definitely going into the tailwind category. We will start to see a partial wind down of the service costs here in the second half as well. And fuel expense is going to be less of a headwind than it was in the first half.

阿米特，讓我簡單介紹一下上半場和下半場的動態，因為這里肯定有一些變化。我們確實預計下半年我們擁有的更好的服務產品會帶來一定的銷量增長。所以這肯定屬於順風類別。下半年我們也將開始看到這裡的服務成本有所下降。與上半年相比，燃料費用的阻力將減少。

But we got some sizable headwinds here in the back half, principally on the RPU side. The fuel surcharge really starts to diminish here and the lag benefit disappears on us. So this fuel will be a real negative in the back half, certainly to margins. And as Ed mentioned, intermodal storage is basically back at pre-pandemic levels now, which means we're going to continue to have quarter-over-quarter headwinds until we lap this probably in the second quarter of next year.

但我們在後半段遇到了一些相當大的阻力，主要是在 RPU 方面。燃油附加費在這裡真正開始減少，滯後效益對我們來說消失了。因此，這種燃料將在下半年產生真正的負面影響，肯定會對利潤率產生負面影響。正如埃德所提到的，多式聯運存儲現在基本上回到了大流行前的水平，這意味著我們將繼續面臨季度環比的逆風，直到我們可能在明年第二季度實現這一目標。

And then, of course, if the futures hold, we're going to have international seaborne coal pricing headwind as well in the RPU side. So that's pretty much the headwind and tailwind equation. So if the volumes come in, like we think, a little bit of back half tailwind, we should get some OR improvement from here and the more the better because we got a lot of capacity on the railroad right now.

當然，如果期貨維持不變，我們將在 RPU 方面面臨國際海運煤炭定價的阻力。這就是逆風和順風方程。因此，如果像我們想像的那樣，運量進來，有一點後半順風，我們應該從這裡得到一些或改進，而且越多越好，因為我們現在鐵路上有很多運力。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自斯科特集團和沃爾夫研究公司。

So Mark, you're saying hopefully, some OR (inaudible), you're saying, hopefully, some OR improvement from Q2 into the back half of the year.

馬克，您希望從第二季度到今年下半年有所改善。

Yes. Volumes, we expect to really provide us a little bit of tailwind here. And I think it's all going to depend on how much volume we're able to bring on to the railroad.

是的。我們希望銷量能夠真正為我們提供一點推動力。我認為這完全取決於我們能夠為鐵路帶來多少運量。

Look, we were really clear in May that OR would be really pressured in the second quarter because we're going to have 3 months of service disruption and then as we've delivered on our commitment to improve service throughout the quarter and moving into third quarter. That creates more opportunity for volume and it creates a better cost structure for us. We will still have those headwinds that Mark called out, particularly with respect to fuel surcharge and comps on...

看，我們在 5 月份就非常清楚，OR 在第二季度會面臨很大的壓力，因為我們將有 3 個月的服務中斷，然後我們兌現了在整個季度改善服務的承諾，並進入了第三季度四分之一。這為我們創造了更多的銷量機會，並創造了更好的成本結構。我們仍然會遇到馬克指出的那些阻力，特別是在燃油附加費和補償方面……

On coal pricing.

關於煤炭定價。

On coal pricing but the underlying product and our ability to onboard volume at strong incrementals is improving.

在煤炭定價方面，但基礎產品以及我們以強勁增量增加銷量的能力正在改善。

And so ultimately, I guess, if you've given us a little bit of color on OR and some color on coal RPU. But how should we think about overall RPU when I factor in the fuel headwind, some of the maybe continued storage headwind? Like what's -- how much do you think is overall RPU going to be down in Q3? Just that I think it would be helpful.

所以最終，我想，如果你給我們一些關於 OR 的顏色和一些關於煤炭 RPU 的顏色。但是，當我考慮到燃料逆風以及一些可能持續的存儲逆風時，我們應該如何考慮整體 RPU？您認為第三季度整體 RPU 會下降多少？只是我認為這會有所幫助。

This is Ed. When we look at the second half of the year, on the RPU front, reduced storage and fuel surcharge revenues are going to persist. We've talked about that. I talked about that in our prepared remarks. Collectively, those current projections for us for fuel storage and coal pricing is roughly $650 million.

這是艾德。當我們展望今年下半年時，在 RPU 方面，存儲和燃油附加費收入的減少將持續存在。我們已經討論過了。我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。總的來說，我們目前對燃料儲存和煤炭定價的預測約為 6.5 億美元。

Year-over-year revenue contraction.

收入同比收縮。

That's right.

這是正確的。

So that's the headwind we're swimming against.

這就是我們面臨的逆風。

$650 million in what period?

6.5億美元是在什麼時期？

Second half versus second half.

下半場對下半場。

Okay. That's revenue.

好的。這就是收入。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

So maybe a little bit on head, I guess I'm curious, how do we think about -- you talked about the pipeline of trainees rolling kind of moderating in the back half of the year? So how do we think about actual employee levels in the back half of the year, maybe 3Q, 4Q? And then, Mark, in the past, you talked a little bit about OpEx and maybe putting the profit aside, I know obviously, there's RPU headwinds on the revenue piece. Is OpEx kind of flattish from where you were in the second quarter? Or is there an ability to actually improve on that given the network kind of reopening and getting some of that productivity back into the model?

所以也許有點頭疼，我想我很好奇，我們如何思考——你談到了今年下半年實習生的管道滾動有點緩和？那麼我們如何看待下半年（可能是第三季度、第四季度）的實際員工水平？然後，馬克，過去，您談到了運營支出，也許把利潤放在一邊，我顯然知道，收入部分存在 RPU 阻力。運營支出與第二季度相比是否持平？或者，考慮到網絡的重新開放，是否有能力真正改進這一點，並將部分生產力重新納入模型中？

Why don't you address the question on conductor trainees and craft colleagues.

你為什麼不解決關於指揮實習生和工藝同事的問題呢？

Yes. Thanks, Alan. So as you saw on the -- hiring chart on the stats, we continue to make progress on staffing. And really, at this point, we plan to reduce the CT pipeline to around 600 or less as we continue to focus on attrition and filling in some of those remaining locations. But at this point, with what we've been able to do from a hiring standpoint, we have further leveraged and gained velocity across the network and facilitate having those folks that are at healthy locations, sent to some of those hotspots. And again, that is a contributor to the velocity improvements and the service improvements that we've seen here over the past several weeks that we expect to continue through the latter half of the year.

是的。謝謝，艾倫。正如您在統計招聘圖表上看到的那樣，我們在人員配置方面繼續取得進展。事實上，在這一點上，我們計劃將 CT 管道減少到大約 600 個或更少，同時我們繼續關註消耗和填補一些剩餘位置。但目前，從招聘的角度來看，我們已經進一步利用並提高了整個網絡的速度，並促進將那些處於健康位置的人員發送到其中一些熱點。再說一次，這對我們過去幾週看到的速度提高和服務改進做出了貢獻，我們預計這些改進將持續到今年下半年。

And Paul, your guidance on a pipeline of around 600 is more pointed towards the end of the year.

Paul，您對 600 條左右管道的指導更指向今年年底。

Correct.

正確的。

And Chris, with regard to OpEx, I think we've obviously seen a step-up in our cost structure as we've been dealing with a lot of the service issues and trying to start to build some resiliency going forward. I think what you'll see now is immanation of those service-related costs as we go through the back half of the year. However, don't forget, we've got that 4% wage increase that took effect July 1. So those kind of start to wash each other out.

克里斯，關於運營支出，我認為我們的成本結構明顯有所上升，因為我們一直在處理許多服務問題，並試圖開始建立一些未來的彈性。我認為您現在將看到的是，隨著今年下半年的到來，這些與服務相關的成本將會顯現出來。然而，不要忘記，我們已經於 7 月 1 日生效了 4% 的工資增長。所以這些開始相互抵消。

And with regard to some of the other P&L line items, in aggregate, probably flattish sequentially. We see those kind of holdings. So that's why the leverage is there now to take on to take on volume. We believe we've got the capacity to handle a lot of volume without much incremental cost and really gets down to facing these RPU headwinds that are going to provide pretty sizable headwind for us on the margin side, $650 million as we just touched on.

至於其他一些損益項目，總的來說，可能會連續持平。我們看到了這類資產。這就是為什麼現在要利用槓桿來擴大成交量。我們相信，我們有能力在不增加太多成本的情況下處理大量交易量，並且真正面對這些 RPU 逆風，這將為我們在利潤方面帶來相當大的逆風，正如我們剛才提到的 6.5 億美元。

Okay. And average heads are up a little bit in the back half of the year, I think is what I heard.

好的。我想這就是我所聽到的，下半年的平均人數有所上升。

I'm sorry, can you repeat that?

抱歉，您能再說一遍嗎？

Average head count is going to be up a little bit sequentially in the back half of the year.

今年下半年，平均人數將略有增加。

Yes, correct.

是，對的。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Mark, I thought Slide 7 was super helpful. And then also, you noted that there's volume, revenue and cost impacts that you wouldn't kind of strip out as being onetime in nature. Is there any way to quantify those two, let's call them, non-adjusted impacts to the second quarter results? And as we think about a return to normalization, is that kind of a slow grind as the line comes back on and builds the full capacity where you can be kind of on an apples-to-apples basis at the start of the fourth quarter? Or do you think that it's going to take all the way until 2024 to say kind of base revenue and base costs from the entire network.

馬克，我認為幻燈片 7 非常有幫助。然後，您還指出，存在數量、收入和成本影響，您不會將其視為一次性的。有什麼方法可以量化這兩項（我們稱之為）對第二季度業績的未經調整的影響嗎？當我們考慮恢復正常化時，隨著生產線恢復並建立滿負荷生產，在第四季度初就可以達到同等水平，這是否是一種緩慢的磨礪？或者您是否認為要一直到 2024 年才能確定整個網絡的基本收入和基本成本。

Yes. So the way we look at it, and we've done some analysis here with Ed and his team, we think we left about $175 million to $200 million of revenue behind because of the service disruptions and the shutdown of the line there in East Palestine. So that's kind of on the revenue side. And on the cost side, we were dealing with growing a lot of costs and trying to accelerate the network, and we've done that successfully.

是的。因此，我們與 Ed 和他的團隊一起進行了一些分析，我們認為，由於東巴勒斯坦的服務中斷和線路關閉，我們留下了約 1.75 億至 2 億美元的收入。這就是收入方面的情況。在成本方面，我們正在應對不斷增加的成本並試圖加速網絡，我們已經成功地做到了這一點。

So now we're going to probably use the next 6 months to really work those costs off and get back to more productive levels of service. So I think you'll see that those costs will wind down here in the third quarter. And I think by the fourth quarter, most of those costs will be removed from our system. So we talk about probably $40 million to $45 million here in the second quarter of kind of poor service related costs, and that will start to unwind here.

因此，現在我們可能會用接下來的 6 個月來真正降低這些成本，並恢復到更有生產力的服務水平。因此，我認為您會看到這些成本將在第三季度逐漸減少。我認為到第四季度，大部分成本將從我們的系統中消除。因此，我們在第二季度談論的可能是 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元的與不良服務相關的成本，而這些成本將在這裡開始緩解。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的布萊恩·奧森貝克 (Brian Ossenbeck)。

Maybe just go back to the average comp per employee. And Mark, you were talking about the 4% increase for the craft employees. Can you just give us a sense of what that looks like on an all-in basis because you've got over time, you've got mix, you got trainees in there. What does it look like in the back half of this year and how does that carry forward into next year?

也許回到每個員工的平均薪酬。馬克，你剛才談到了工藝員工 4% 的加薪。你能否讓我們了解一下整體情況，因為你已經有了時間，你已經有了混合，你也有了實習生。今年下半年情況如何？明年會如何？

And then beyond that point, can you just talk more broadly about the cost for paid sick leave, what role changes and how we should think about those, including any potential offsets and when you might see them?

除此之外，您能否更廣泛地討論帶薪病假的費用、角色的變化以及我們應該如何考慮這些變化，包括任何潛在的抵消以及您何時可能會看到它們？

Thanks, Brian. So I think I guided earlier in the year to about 35,000 and change each quarter, anticipating that we were going to have this 4% step-up in rates in the third quarter, but that would be neutralized by the wind-down of service-related costs. So that guidance pretty much holds. I would -- if I were you all, I'd be modeling around 35 and change average comp per employee each quarter. Sorry, the second part of that one question was what?

謝謝，布萊恩。因此，我想我在今年早些時候指導了大約 35,000 人，並且每個季度都會改變，預計我們將在第三季度將費率提高 4%，但這將被服務的縮減所抵消。相關費用。所以這個指導意見幾乎成立。如果我是你們所有人，我會在 35 左右進行建模，並每個季度更改每位員工的平均薪酬。抱歉，該問題的第二部分是什麼？

The work rule changes...

工作規則發生變化...

Yes. Sorry. Clearly, these things aren't free. So there's definitely a little bit of a headwind that we're swimming against with a lot of these work rule changes. I'm not going to put a fine number on it other than to say that, obviously, we're going to have to pay for that with some productivity initiatives in the future. And that's what Paul and his team are looking at now. But clearly, some short-term headwinds from a lot of what you've seen published.

是的。對不起。顯然，這些東西不是免費的。因此，我們在工作規則的許多變化中肯定會遇到一些阻力。我不會給出一個具體的數字，只是說，顯然，我們將來必須通過一些生產力舉措來為此付出代價。這就是保羅和他的團隊現在正在研究的。但顯然，您所看到的許多已發表的內容都帶來了一些短期阻力。

Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自喬丹·阿利格 (Jordan Alliger) 與高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的關係。

Sort of curious maybe from a sensitivity perspective, you've done a really good job getting the network back into shape in the second quarter. And you talked about maybe hopefully improving OR with some volume sequentially versus the second quarter OR. But I'm actually curious, is there -- given the headwinds you've talked about and maybe even looking into next year, is there a level of volume growth that needs to come into the network to show year-over-year OR improvement?

有點好奇，也許從敏感性的角度來看，你們在第二季度使網絡恢復正常方面做得非常好。您談到，與第二季度的 OR 相比，也許有望提高 OR 的銷量。但我實際上很好奇，考慮到您所討論的不利因素，甚至可能展望明年，網絡中是否需要一定程度的銷量增長才能顯示同比或改進？

Well, I'll jump in and just say that you go back to our financial framework, our goal, the one we launched back in December, kind of -- we're aiming for mid-single-digit revenue growth on average in most years. And that would imply a few points at least of volume and a couple of points of pricing. So we think that, that is the right equation for us where we can then leverage it and drive productivity so that we have [off] income growth that's greater than the revenue growth. So that's pretty much the model. And I would expect in '24 that to play out.

好吧，我要插嘴說一下，你回到我們的財務框架，我們的目標，我們在 12 月份推出的目標，我們的目標是在大多數國家實現平均個位數的收入增長年。這意味著至少有幾個點的銷量和幾個點的定價。因此，我們認為，這對我們來說是正確的方程式，我們可以利用它並提高生產力，從而使我們的收入增長大於收入增長。這就是模型。我預計這將在 24 年實現。

Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自拉維·尚克 (Ravi Shanker) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

Now that you've had a little more time to digest the aftermath of the accident, do you have a better sense of when we might know the final kind of financial impact here? Kind of is that a 3Q event? Is a 2024 event? Is it going to take several years? How does that play out?

現在您已經有了更多時間來消化事故的後果，您是否更清楚我們何時可以知道最終的財務影響？這是第三季度的活動嗎？是 2024 年的活動嗎？是不是要花好幾年的時間？結果如何？

Mark, why don't you address that, please?

馬克，你為什麼不解決這個問題呢？

Sure. I mean, this is going to take a little bit more time. The way to look at this, Ravi, is as we've entered Q2, we've got a lot more visibility now than we did in Q1. And our current estimates assume that the cleanup activity continues into October and then kind of moderates meaningfully during the fourth quarter.

當然。我的意思是，這將需要更多時間。拉維，看待這個問題的方法是，當我們進入第二季度時，我們現在的知名度比第一季度要高得多。我們目前的估計假設清理活動將持續到 10 月份，然後在第四季度顯著放緩。

Future periods are going to be impacted by ongoing legal costs and may be impacted by other items as well such as fines and penalties, which are currently unknown. And frankly, we can't estimate. So what I would encourage is that maybe you look at the 10-Q disclosures later today related to the matter, we kind of go into a fair amount of detail of the types of things that could continue to impact us in the future. And we'll continue to monitor this and keep you all apprised as things change.

未來的時期將受到持續的法律費用的影響，並可能受到其他項目的影響，例如罰款和處罰，目前尚不清楚。坦率地說，我們無法估計。所以我鼓勵的是，也許你看看今天晚些時候與此事相關的 10-Q 披露，我們對未來可能繼續影響我們的事情類型進行了相當多的細節。我們將繼續監控此事，並隨時向大家通報情況的變化。

But right now, the largest part of what we're accruing for has really been the environmental cleanup costs. And the visibility now is we think as we get into October, things really start to wind down, and that's the basis of these estimates. Now I'll take a moment and just say, we've started the process, like I said in my prepared remarks of seeking recovery from third parties, and we are going to start here in the third quarter, making claims against our insurance -- making claims against our insurance policies. So that's going to take some time to play out. And we're probably talking quarters, not months.

但目前，我們所承擔的最大部分實際上是環境清理成本。現在我們認為，隨著進入十月，情況確實開始放緩，這就是這些估計的基礎。現在我要花點時間說，我們已經開始了這個過程，就像我在準備向第三方尋求賠償的發言中所說的那樣，我們將在第三季度開始，對我們的保險提出索賠 - - 根據我們的保險單提出索賠。所以這需要一些時間才能發揮出來。我們可能談論的是季度，而不是幾個月。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗 (Justin Long) 與斯蒂芬斯公司 (Stephens Inc.) 的電話。

We had another Class 1 rail yesterday come out and announced that they're pausing buyback activity for the second half. So I wanted to get your thoughts around buybacks as we move into the next couple of quarters? And any update on the timing of the Cincinnati Southern acquisition closing and how that deal will be funded?

昨天我們又發布了另一條 1 級鐵路，並宣布他們將暫停下半年的回購活動。所以我想了解您在進入接下來的幾個季度時對回購的想法？關於辛辛那提南方收購完成的時間以及該交易將如何融資的最新消息？

Yes, thanks. We continue doing some share repurchasing in the second quarter similar levels to what we had done in the first. And again, we get back to what our model is and nothing changes. The first thing we do with our returns is reinvest back in the business to drive safety, resiliency, growth productivity. And this year, that is going to be $2.2 billion of CapEx spend.

對了謝謝。我們在第二季度繼續進行一些股票回購，其水平與第一季度的水平相似。再次，我們回到我們的模型，沒有任何改變。我們對回報所做的第一件事就是對業務進行再投資，以提高安全性、彈性和生產力增長。今年，資本支出將達到 22 億美元。

After that, we pay a dividend in that 35% to 40% payout ratio range. Sometimes it goes outside of that a little bit, but we'll grow back into it. And then with the remaining excess cash, we've been very mindful of our leverage, we return that cash to shareholders through the repurchase of shares. This year is a little unique in that we have signaled we're going to do that CSR purchase. The timing of that is also becoming clearer. That is likely toward the end of Q1 of next year of closing should the citizens vote affirmatively in Cincinnati to go forward. So we will be mindful of that because part of that purchase will be coming from internally generated cash flow. That doesn't mean we're stopping share repurchase, but it will definitely be at much lower levels than we've seen in the prior couple of years where we were doing $3 billion a year or more.

之後，我們按照 35% 至 40% 的派息率範圍支付股息。有時它會超出一點，但我們會重新回到它。然後，利用剩餘的多餘現金，我們非常注意我們的槓桿作用，我們通過回購股票將現金返還給股東。今年有點獨特，因為我們已表示將進行企業社會責任採購。其時機也變得越來越清晰。如果辛辛那提公民投票贊成繼續推進，那麼這項工作很可能會在明年第一季度結束時完成。因此，我們會注意到這一點，因為部分購買將來自內部產生的現金流。這並不意味著我們要停止股票回購，但肯定會比我們前幾年每年回購 30 億美元或更多的水平低得多。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的傑夫·考夫曼（Jeff Kauffman）。

A lot of my questions has been answered, but let me ask this one because you threw it out earlier. You talked a little bit about bringing in first mile/last mile head. Now not the right time, we're focused on rehabbing the network and fixing what needs to be fixed. But could you talk a little bit about longer term why this makes a difference and why you're one of the few rails that's actually stepped in that direction?

我的很多問題已經得到解答，但讓我問這個，因為你之前把它扔掉了。您談到了引入第一英里/最後一英里的頭。現在還不是時候，我們的重點是修復網絡並修復需要修復的問題。但您能否從長遠角度談談為什麼這會產生影響，以及為什麼您是少數幾家真正朝著這個方向邁進的公司之一？

Ed, why don't you address that?

艾德，你為什麼不解決這個問題呢？

Sure, I'd be glad to. We know from talking to our customers, and we've done this over a long period of time and spent a lot of time with our customers. First and last mile is a critical component of the customer experience. And we know that there are a few key vectors of value that we're going to be -- that we have to focus on delivering. Service quality is one of those. And first and last mile is a portion of service quality. It's also customer experience, it's also commercial sophistication. In all three of those categories, first and last mile plays a significant and substantial role. And it's not just in the merchandise business. It's also in our TBT or bulk transfer facilities. It's also with our (inaudible) direct product, it's also with Triple Crown. So we view it as a key component of our future success.

當然，我很樂意這樣做。我們從與客戶的交談中了解到，我們已經這樣做了很長一段時間，並花了很多時間與客戶在一起。第一英里和最後一英里是客戶體驗的關鍵組成部分。我們知道，我們將要實現一些關鍵的價值載體——我們必須專注於交付這些價值載體。服務質量就是其中之一。第一英里和最後一英里是服務質量的一部分。這也是客戶體驗，也是商業成熟度。在所有這三個類別中，第一英里和最後一英里都起著重要且重要的作用。這不僅僅是在商品業務中。它也存在於我們的 TBT 或批量傳輸設施中。這也與我們的（聽不清）直接產品有關，也與三冠王有關。因此，我們將其視為我們未來成功的關鍵組成部分。

And it's all part of our long-term strategy to drive service, productivity and growth.

這都是我們推動服務、生產力和增長的長期戰略的一部分。

We've got to do different things if we want to grow. Yes. So this is a great example.

如果我們想成長，就必須做不同的事情。是的。這是一個很好的例子。

Yes. And we're willing to take a lead role in the industry on that.

是的。我們願意在這方面發揮行業帶頭作用。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

So I wanted to ask you, I think you talked a little bit about maybe what you need on the volume side to -- or revenue side to improve OR. But I guess I'm thinking if you look, I don't know, into '24 or just let's say, beyond the next quarter or two, it does seem like you identified a pretty big revenue headwind in the second half. And I don't know that those revenues would come back in terms of storage or coal RPU and fuel surcharge, obviously, can be up or down.

所以我想問你，我認為你談到了你可能需要在數量方面或收入方面來改善 OR。但我想我在想，如果你看看，我不知道，進入 24 年，或者只是說，在接下來的一兩個季度之後，你似乎確實發現了下半年的收入逆風。我不知道這些收入是否會以存儲或煤炭 RPU 和燃油附加費的形式回來，顯然，可能會上升或下降。

But I'm just -- and on the cost side, it doesn't seem like you're going to cut headcount. So is it just all about volume? And should we be optimistic about moving out of the mid-60s? Or is there an operating ratio? Or is there a challenge where you're kind of stuck in the mid-60s for a period of time on the operating ratio. It just seems hard to see what's going to move in a big way out of the mid-60s OR other than volume really being a lot better.

但我只是——在成本方面，你似乎不會裁員。那麼這只是數量的問題嗎？我們應該對走出 60 年代中期持樂觀態度嗎？或者說有運營比例嗎？或者是否存在一個挑戰，即您的運營率在一段時間內陷入了 60 年代中期的困境。似乎很難看出 20 世紀 60 年代中期會有什麼大的變化，或者除了銷量確實要好得多之外。

The single biggest lever we've got right now is to absorb volume growth into our current cost structure. So that is really going to provide a bit of peel out from where we are today. And then I think at the same time, Paul and his team, in particular, are working hard on productivity initiatives because we've dug service out of the hole we were in. Maybe not in the most productive way. We've been growing a lot of costs and resources to accelerate the network.

我們目前擁有的最大槓桿是將銷量增長吸收到我們當前的成本結構中。因此，這確實會給我們今天的處境帶來一些幫助。然後我認為與此同時，保羅和他的團隊正在努力提高生產力計劃，因為我們已經將服務從我們所處的困境中挖掘出來。也許不是以最有效的方式。我們一直在增加大量成本和資源來加速網絡。

So now there's a lot of opportunity to take the costs out and start driving productivity again. And that's what Paul and his team are heavily focused on. We're not going to give an OR projection here or the pace at which we're going to improve. But there are a lot of levers. And you touched on most of them. RPU being a big piece. We'll see what happens here with coal pricing in the future. That's been a driver. The same thing with fuel. That's going to be -- it's been very supportive fuel to our OR in the first half, and it's going to be equally negative now here in the back half.

因此，現在有很多機會可以降低成本並再次開始提高生產力。這就是保羅和他的團隊非常關注的事情。我們不會在這裡給出 OR 預測或我們要改進的速度。但有很多槓桿。你觸及了其中的大部分。 RPU 是一個大部件。我們將看看未來煤炭定價會發生什麼。那是一名司機。燃油也是如此。這將是——它在上半場對我們的 OR 起到了非常積極的推動作用，而現在在後半場它同樣會產生負面影響。

So that dynamic could change going forward. So we're not in a position to project where the OR goes in the next 12 or 18 months. But I will tell you, we are coiled up with the investments we've made to start driving improvements by taking on volume. We are readying employees to take on volume.

因此，這種動態未來可能會發生變化。因此，我們無法預測 OR 在未來 12 或 18 個月內的走向。但我會告訴你，我們已經進行了投資，開始通過增加銷量來推動改進。我們正在讓員工做好接受批量生產的準備。

It just seems like the revenue headwinds are a lot bigger than the $45 million a quarter cost inefficiencies?

收入逆風似乎比每季度 4500 萬美元的成本效率低下要大得多？

Yes. I mean we laid them out. There are some revenue RPU type of headwinds, but we do think that there is volume out there for the taking. And as long as we don't go into an economic downturn, which is we're feeling a little bit better about lately, we think there's some share recapture opportunity that's out there and other areas where we can take the volume on. But yes, we're going to have short-term headwinds.

是的。我的意思是我們把它們擺好了。收入方面存在一些 RPU 類型的阻力，但我們確實認為還有大量的收入可供獲取。只要我們不陷入經濟低迷（最近我們感覺好一些），我們認為就存在一些重新奪回份額的機會，以及我們可以擴大交易量的其他領域。但是，是的，我們將面臨短期阻力。

And look, as the service product has stabilized, it gives us the opportunity to continue to iterate our plan and drive productivity and efficiencies into the base plan as well. So it's not just the elimination of the service recovery cost. We're going to make the base plan better. And that's exactly what we're doing now, and that's the structure that Paul has built into his organization.

看，隨著服務產品的穩定，它使我們有機會繼續迭代我們的計劃，並將生產力和效率提高到基本計劃中。因此，這不僅僅是消除服務恢復成本。我們將完善基本計劃。這正是我們現在正在做的事情，這就是保羅在他的組織中建立的結構。

Our next question comes from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自艾莉森·波利尼亞克 (Allison Poliniak) 與富國銀行 (Wells Fargo) 的對話。

Just going back to that $2.6 billion that you highlight on industrial development, is there a way to better understand how that converts to a potential volume opportunity for you. And I would say similarly with the EV battery plants per plan, is there a kind of an algorithm to think through in terms of the volume opportunity as they come online?

回到您強調的工業發展 26 億美元，有沒有辦法更好地了解它如何轉化為您的潛在銷量機會。我想說的是，與每個計劃的電動汽車電池工廠類似，是否有一種算法可以在它們上線時考慮數量機會？

I appreciate the question. I'm not sure, I think, in terms of algorithms for that stuff. The value of the product that we're delivering varies by the size of the project. And it could be months to manifest volume, it could be years depending on the size of the project. We're encouraged by the EV battery facilities that have located along our lines. But let me be also clear, we're encouraged by EV battery production or facilities that are not on our lines because being the largest producer we serve more auto plants than any other railroad. We're going to benefit from that off-line production as well.

我很欣賞這個問題。我認為，我不確定這些東西的算法。我們提供的產品的價值因項目的規模而異。可能需要幾個月的時間才能體現出數量，也可能需要幾年的時間，具體取決於項目的規模。我們對沿線的電動汽車電池設施感到鼓舞。但我還要明確的是，我們對不在我們線路上的電動汽車電池生產或設施感到鼓舞，因為作為最大的生產商，我們為比任何其他鐵路更多的汽車工廠提供服務。我們也將從離線生產中受益。

So I don't -- I think when we think through it, it is a multi-year manifestation of volume over time.

所以我不認為——我認為當我們仔細思考時，它是隨著時間的推移數量的多年表現。

Yes. I think the salient point is the macro trends in the economy play to the strengths of our unique franchise. That's why we have a lot of confidence moving forward.

是的。我認為重點是經濟的宏觀趨勢發揮了我們獨特特許經營權的優勢。這就是為什麼我們對前進充滿信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

Two quick things here. One, how should we think about sort of other income below the line. You guys did a great job of laying out sort of what you think about revenue, what you think about OR. But there's a big swing year-over-year in other income. So just curious about second half. And Alan, any thoughts on potential regulation and maybe the recent steps by the FRA to do a public comment period on train size and weights.

這裡有兩件事。第一，我們應該如何考慮線下的其他收入。你們很好地闡述了你們對收入、OR 的看法。但其他收入同比大幅波動。所以只是對下半場感到好奇。艾倫，關於潛在監管的任何想法，以及法蘭克福機場最近採取的關於火車尺寸和重量的公眾意見徵詢期的措施。

Jason, other income, remember, a big driver of other income is the company owned -- the returns on company-owned life insurance investments. And here in the first half, we had some pretty good compares because last year, in Q1, Q2, we had losses on those company-owned life insurance policies. So now we've swung to returns again, which is historically long term, been the more normal.

傑森，其他收入，請記住，其他收入的一大推動力是公司擁有的——公司擁有的人壽保險投資的回報。在上半年，我們進行了一些相當不錯的比較，因為去年第一季度、第二季度，我們在這些公司擁有的人壽保險保單上遭受了損失。所以現在我們再次轉向回報，從歷史上來看，這是比較正常的。

And so the $64 million or so in Q2, which is year-over-year compare on company-owned life insurance will probably not be as big in the back half. So I'd get back to more back half numbers like you've seen historically in that $20 million to $30 million a quarter range.

因此，與公司自有人壽保險相比，第二季度約 6400 萬美元的收入在下半年可能不會那麼大。因此，我會回到更多的後半數字，就像您在歷史上看到的那樣，每季度 2000 萬美元到 3000 萬美元的範圍內。

And Jason, with respect to your question about regulation, I've been fully engaged with our elected officials and our regulators, really advancing and offering full throat and endorsement for a lot of the provisions that are in the various bills that are moving through the house or moving through the Senate. A lot of them make perfect sense to us or just they're common sensical. I don't see anything out there right now that is going to be too onerous on the rail industry cost structure, which includes railroads or our customers.

傑森，關於你關於監管的問題，我一直在與我們的民選官員和監管機構充分接觸，真正推進並為正在通過的各種法案中的許多條款提供充分的支持和支持。眾議院或通過參議院。其中很多對我們來說非常有意義，或者只是具有普遍意義。我現在沒有看到任何對鐵路行業成本結構（包括鐵路或我們的客戶）來說過於繁重的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna International Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bascome Majors 與 Susquehanna International Group 的合作。

Mark, you gave us a lot of color on the timing of recoveries versus spend and some of the issues with East Palestine. I think it would be helpful if you could kind of frame what you're feeling for free cash flow this year? And just ballpark, any amount that might be a shift into 2024? Or if that's how we should look at it given that claims and recoveries will be ongoing and could take years?

馬克，您就恢復與支出的時間安排以及東巴勒斯坦的一些問題向我們提供了很多信息。我認為如果您能描述一下您對今年自由現金流的感受，將會有所幫助？大概來說，到 2024 年可能會有多少金額？或者，考慮到索賠和追償將持續進行，並且可能需要數年時間，我們是否應該這樣看待它？

Yes, Bascome. It's really because of the timing with EP and the uncertainties around, I had mentioned that the accrued balance that sits there today, $287 million of cash has gone out. We've got over $800 million that we had accrued for. So the remaining $500-or-so million, half of that is going to come out in the back half of this year, the other half probably next year, some may slip into 2025 even. Beyond that, we have no visibility to the timing on recoveries. It's unlikely that we'll see any recoveries actually here in 2023.

是的，巴斯科姆。這實際上是因為 EP 的時機和周圍的不確定性，我曾提到今天的應計餘額，2.87 億美元的現金已經花掉了。我們已經積累了超過 8 億美元的資金。因此，剩下的 500 億美元左右，其中一半將在今年下半年發放，另一半可能在明年發放，有些甚至可能會推遲到 2025 年。除此之外，我們無法得知恢復的時間。到 2023 年，我們不太可能看到實際復甦。

It's a matter of when in 2024, they start to come in. And we'll get back to, again, the insurance process where you can't really ask for insurance coverage on costs you've incurred until you actually incur the expense, meaning the cash goes out. So we're only just now starting to make those claims. So it is going to take several quarters probably before you go through the process and get the free cash flow benefit on the proceeds.

這是 2024 年何時開始介入的問題。我們將再次回到保險流程，在您實際發生費用之前，您無法真正要求為您所發生的費用提供保險，意味著現金花出去了。所以我們現在才剛剛開始提出這些主張。因此，可能需要幾個季度的時間才能完成整個流程並獲得收益的自由現金流收益。

Do you have any thoughts without really tying you to the timing of when those recoveries may or may not happen. What free cash flow could look like for the business this year?

您是否有任何想法，但沒有真正將您與這些恢復可能或可能不會發生的時間聯繫起來。今年該公司的自由現金流會是什麼樣子？

I don't want to get into that level of guidance right here.

我不想在這裡進入這種程度的指導。

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自本·諾蘭和斯蒂菲爾的台詞。

Yes. We've heard a little bit about the possibility of seeing some intermodal shifting back to the West Coast from the East Coast given the hopefully, normalization of labor over there. Curious if you guys have seen any initial signs of that at all or if you see that as a potential risk or not?

是的。我們聽說有可能看到一些多式聯運從東海岸轉移回西海岸，因為那裡的勞動力有望正常化。好奇你們是否已經看到了任何初步跡象，或者您是否認為這是潛在的風險？

I would say we haven't seen any real signs of it yet, but let's be clear. We have a network that's built for volume growth from the West as well as from the East, and we can benefit from freight that comes in either case.

我想說我們還沒有看到任何真正的跡象，但讓我們澄清一下。我們擁有一個專為西方和東方的貨運量增長而建立的網絡，我們可以從這兩種情況下的貨運中受益。

Our final question today comes from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自大衛·弗農和伯恩斯坦的對話。

So is there a way to quantify the share loss in 2Q that has happened from the East Palestine derailment? I'm just trying to get a sense for some -- how much volume might have moved away related to the weaker macro? And then, Mark, is there a way to think about as you look forward to all the things that are potentially out there, obviously, we've accrued for a lot of things. We're going to get some recoveries. If we think about the net, the good guys versus the bad guys. Is there a way to think about whether the liability from this thing is going to net grow or maybe stay constant or maybe shrink a little bit when you think about all the puts and takes on a multiyear view?

那麼有沒有辦法量化東巴勒斯坦脫軌造成的二季度股價損失呢？我只是想了解一些——有多少交易量可能因宏觀疲軟而消失？然後，馬克，當你期待所有可能發生的事情時，有沒有一種方法可以思考，顯然，我們已經積累了很多東西。我們將會得到一些康復。如果我們考慮網絡，好人與壞人。當你從多年的角度考慮所有的看跌期權和看跌期權時，有沒有辦法思考這件事的負債是否會淨增長，或者可能保持不變，或者可能會稍微縮小？

This is Ed. I'll start. There's no doubt, we went through a tough stretch there with service that for some of our customers to find alternatives to keep their supply chains running. Those alternatives probably included additional inventory, truck substitution as well as other railroads. And I think Mark actually mentioned $175 million to $200 million in the quarter that we -- we wish we had back. I think that's a fair number. We work pretty closely on that.

這是艾德。我開始吧。毫無疑問，我們在服務方面經歷了一段艱難的時期，為我們的一些客戶找到了保持供應鏈運行的替代方案。這些替代方案可能包括增加庫存、卡車替代以及其他鐵路。我認為馬克實際上提到了我們希望能收回的季度 1.75 億至 2 億美元。我認為這是一個公平的數字。我們在這方面密切合作。

But we also know that our customers recognize the long-term benefit that we deliver. And I told you earlier that I'm already encouraged about the recent trajectory of our volumes. We're able to save our customers money, and they are looking forward for us doing that. We focused on two things during the quarter as we got service back. Number one, get it back as quickly as possible. And number two, make sure we stayed really close to our customers, so they knew that they could unwind those alternatives and come back to us. We think we're seeing that.

但我們也知道，我們的客戶認可我們提供的長期利益。我之前告訴過你們，我已經對我們最近的銷量軌跡感到鼓舞。我們能夠為客戶省錢，他們也期待我們這樣做。當我們恢復服務時，我們在本季度重點關注了兩件事。第一，盡快把它拿回來。第二，確保我們與客戶保持密切聯繫，這樣他們就知道可以放棄這些替代方案並回到我們身邊。我們認為我們正在看到這一點。

Look, that's a central point to our long-term strategy and consistent service as consequences. And that we're going to make service -- competitive service, excellent service and enduring competitive strength for NS.

看，這是我們長期戰略和一致服務的核心點。我們將為 NS 提供有競爭力的服務、卓越的服務和持久的競爭實力。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Shaw for any final comment.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把最後的意見轉回給肖先生。

Thank you for joining us this morning, and we look forward to further conversations at start of the third quarter.

感謝您今天早上加入我們，我們期待在第三季度開始時進行進一步的對話。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。