Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Norfolk Southern Corporation Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Norfolk Southern Corporation 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。

It's now my pleasure to introduce Luke Nichols, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Nichols. You may now begin.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係高級總監 Luke Nichols。謝謝你，尼科爾斯先生。你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早上好。

Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results. Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full disclosure of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important.

請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告，以全面披露我們認為最重要的風險和不確定性。

Our presentation slides are available at nscorp.com in the Investors section, along with our reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures. A full transcript and download will be posted after the call.

我們的演示幻燈片可在 nscorp.com 的“投資者”部分獲得，以及我們將當今使用的任何非 GAAP 措施與可比的 GAAP 措施進行核對。完整的成績單和下載將在電話會議後發布。

Turning to Slide 3, it's now my pleasure to introduce Norfolk Southern's President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan Shaw.

轉到幻燈片 3，現在我很高興介紹 Norfolk Southern 的總裁兼首席執行官 Alan Shaw。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Norfolk Southern's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I'm joined today by Cindy Sanborn, Chief Operating Officer; Ed Elkins, Chief Marketing Officer; and Mark George, Chief Financial Officer.

大家，早安。歡迎來到 Norfolk Southern 的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天，首席運營官 Cindy Sanborn 加入了我的行列；埃德·埃爾金斯，首席營銷官；以及首席財務官 Mark George。

The Norfolk Southern team delivered strong financial results in the third quarter, achieving quarterly records for revenue, net income and earnings per share. We also demonstrated our focus on productivity and efficiency with significant OR improvement, as Mark will describe in a moment. Thank you to all the men and women of Norfolk Southern for their remarkable work this quarter and throughout the year, proudly serving our customers and improving the quality of our product.

Norfolk Southern 團隊在第三季度取得了強勁的財務業績，收入、淨收入和每股收益均創下季度記錄。正如馬克稍後將描述的那樣，我們還通過顯著的 OR 改進展示了我們對生產力和效率的關注。感謝 Norfolk Southern 的所有男男女女在本季度和全年所做的出色工作，自豪地為我們的客戶服務並提高我們的產品質量。

We are qualifying conductors at a robust pace, executing and refining our TOP|SPG operating plan and further strengthening our leadership team and operations. The impact is evident across our network. We see improved operating metrics, such as higher train speeds and shorter dwells. We see improved customer-facing service metrics. We hear improve feedback from customers who are talking to us about adding business. Volume is the lagging indicator, and we are confident our broad and continuing service improvement will drive growth opportunities in the months ahead. Today, the NS team is providing better service, creating network capacity for growth and demonstrating the customer-centric operations-driven approach. That is the foundation of our success.

我們正在以強勁的步伐對售票員進行資格認證，執行和完善我們的 TOP|SPG 運營計劃，並進一步加強我們的領導團隊和運營。這種影響在我們的網絡中是顯而易見的。我們看到了改進的運營指標，例如更高的列車速度和更短的停留時間。我們看到改進的面向客戶的服務指標。我們聽到與我們談論增加業務的客戶的改進反饋。數量是滯後指標，我們相信我們廣泛而持續的服務改進將在未來幾個月推動增長機會。如今，NS 團隊正在提供更好的服務，為增長創造網絡容量，並展示以客戶為中心的運營驅動方法。這是我們成功的基礎。

During the quarter, we reached tentative agreements with the unions that represent our craft colleagues. This was a critical first step. The tentative agreements recognize the significant contributions of our people and keep them among the highest paid craft workers in any industry. In my continuing field visits with frontline railroaders and local supervisors, I've been able to express my appreciation for the vital work they do for Norfolk Southern, our customers and the U.S. economy. Working on the railroad has always been a great opportunity to build a fulfilling career, and we want to keep it that way.

在本季度，我們與代表我們工藝同事的工會達成了初步協議。這是關鍵的第一步。暫定協議承認我們員工的重大貢獻，並使他們成為任何行業中收入最高的手工藝工人。在我對一線鐵路工人和當地主管的持續實地訪問中，我能夠對他們為諾福克南方公司、我們的客戶和美國經濟所做的重要工作表示感謝。在鐵路上工作一直是建立充實職業的絕佳機會，我們希望保持這種狀態。

In the final days of the cooling off period is the possibility of service disruption [loan]. We took a transparent no-surprises approach to communicating with our customers, which help them make informed decisions about how to keep their goods and materials moving. This is an excellent illustration of what it means to be customer-centric. Even though it created a modest headwind on volume, as Ed will describe, we received positive feedback from many of our customers. We'll take that same no surprises approach every time, because it's how we will deepen customer trust and enhance long-term value creation and growth.

在冷靜期的最後幾天是服務中斷的可能性[貸款]。我們採取透明、無意外的方式與客戶溝通，這有助於他們就如何保持貨物和材料的流動做出明智的決定。這很好地說明了以客戶為中心的含義。正如 Ed 將描述的那樣，儘管它對銷量造成了一定的阻力，但我們收到了許多客戶的積極反饋。我們每次都會採取同樣的毫不意外的方法，因為這是我們加深客戶信任並促進長期價值創造和增長的方式。

Now, I'll turn the discussion to Cindy for additional detail on our strong operating progress during the quarter. Cindy?

現在，我將把討論轉給 Cindy，以了解有關本季度強勁運營進展的更多詳細信息。辛迪？

Good morning. Turning to Slide 5, our resolve to improve service levels is paying off. During the quarter, we executed a smooth rollout of the latest evolution of our PSR-based operating plan, TOP|SPG, and ended the quarter with network velocity more than 20% improved from where it was entering the quarter. As a result, the service recovery glide path we charted earlier this year for the STB is trending well ahead of schedule. We have more improvements to make with progress being fueled by staffing initiatives, TOP|SPG and disciplined field execution. We are gaining momentum and will continue to drive to enhance our customer service and create capacity.

早上好。轉到幻燈片 5，我們提高服務水平的決心正在奏效。在本季度，我們順利推出了基於 PSR 的運營計劃 TOP|SPG 的最新發展，並在本季度結束時網絡速度比進入本季度時提高了 20% 以上。因此，我們今年早些時候為 STB 繪製的服務恢復下滑路徑的趨勢遠遠提前於計劃。隨著人員配置計劃、TOP|SPG 和紀律嚴明的現場執行的推動，我們還有更多的改進要做。我們正在獲得動力，並將繼續推動加強我們的客戶服務和創造能力。

Slide 6 highlights where we are with staffing levels of our transportation workforce. Our pipeline of trainees remains robust, and we have reached the waypoint target of approximately 7,300 qualified T&E staff a month ahead of schedule. This was accomplished through our innovative approach to recruiting and reinforces the advantage we have to recruit a high-quality craft workforce that takes pride in moving the economy forward. As you heard from Alan, we are pleased to have reached tentative agreements in the quarter to keep that workforce among the highest paid in the nation.

幻燈片 6 突出顯示了我們的運輸勞動力人員配置水平。我們的受訓人員渠道依然強勁，我們提前一個月達到了約 7,300 名合格 T&E 員工的目標。這是通過我們創新的招聘方法實現的，並加強了我們必須招聘以推動經濟向前發展為榮的高素質手工藝勞動力的優勢。正如您從 Alan 那裡聽到的那樣，我們很高興在本季度達成了初步協議，以使該員工隊伍保持在全國薪酬最高的行列。

Slide 7 continues the discussion on service improvements we are making. Last quarter, we shared with you the decision to adjust a couple of our existing major terminals from flat switching to humping. Those shifts went smoothly and are paying dividends today.

幻燈片 7 繼續討論我們正在進行的服務改進。上個季度，我們與您分享了將我們現有的幾個主要終端從平坦切換調整為駝峰的決定。這些轉變進展順利，今天正在帶來回報。

We are leveraging a similar number of crew starts as we had entering this year inside our yards and terminals and are now moving cars more fluidly through those facilities. As a result, the railcar fleet is moving faster through our terminals. We're operating at high levels of productivity and creating capacity within our switching resources to drive further growth and productivity. As I said last quarter, we will remain flexible to most optimally manage assets, control costs, serve our customers and do so safely.

我們正在利用與我們今年進入我們的院子和航站樓相似數量的船員開始，現在正在通過這些設施更流暢地移動汽車。因此，鐵路車隊在我們的航站樓內移動得更快。我們正在以高水平的生產力運營，並在我們的交換資源中創造容量，以推動進一步的增長和生產力。正如我上個季度所說，我們將保持靈活性，以最佳方式管理資產、控製成本、為我們的客戶提供服務並安全地進行。

Moving to Slide 8. GTMs were flat year-over-year, coupled with crew starts that were up 1%, produced flat train length and weight. We are very focused on the implementation of TOP|SPG in the quarter and are now poised for growth on our train network.

轉到幻燈片 8。GTM 同比持平，加上機組人員開工率上升 1%，產生的列車長度和重量持平。我們非常關注本季度 TOP|SPG 的實施，現在正準備在我們的火車網絡上實現增長。

Active Locomotives were up for the fourth consecutive quarter in support of service recovery. And I am pleased to say that as we regain fluidity over the last couple of months, Active Locomotives are trending down on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. The skill of our mechanical workforce, coupled with our DC to AC modernization strategy, allowed us to deploy search fleet capacities to support service recovery at historic levels of reliability. As I've discussed, we're continuing the modernization program in support of reliability and capacity in the future.

在用機車連續第四個季度上升，以支持服務恢復。我很高興地說，隨著我們在過去幾個月恢復流動性，有源機車在連續和同比的基礎上都呈下降趨勢。我們機械勞動力的技能，加上我們的 DC 到 AC 現代化戰略，使我們能夠部署搜索艦隊能力，以支持歷史可靠性水平的服務恢復。正如我所討論的，我們正在繼續現代化計劃以支持未來的可靠性和容量。

Lastly, this marked our fourth consecutive quarter of fuel efficiency gains, again, due in part to our fleet investments along with shutdown compliance initiatives, augmented with enhanced communications technology and many more efforts.

最後，這標誌著我們連續第四個季度實現燃油效率的提高，部分原因是我們的車隊投資以及關閉合規計劃，以及增強的通信技術和更多努力。

Slide 9 hits on a pillar of our digital strategy, Empower the Workforce, which crosses our entire operations group. Through Empower the Workforce, we provide mobile, self-service capabilities to our field forces and enable them to better manage their work with modern mobile applications. They are no longer tied to fixed base reporting and can input and retrieve information when they need it in modern, user-friendly mobile applications. We have a mobility group of technology specialists that are responsible for providing consistent, consumer-grade mobile applications to our transportation, engineering and mechanical forces. Whether it's an application for reporting railcar pickups and set-offs, obtaining track authority or recording bridge inspections, we are providing information where and when our employees need it in order to better manage their workday.

幻燈片 9 擊中了我們數字戰略的支柱，賦予員工權力，它跨越了我們的整個運營團隊。通過 Empower the Workforce，我們為現場工作人員提供移動自助服務功能，使他們能夠使用現代移動應用程序更好地管理工作。他們不再依賴於固定的基礎報告，可以在需要時在現代、用戶友好的移動應用程序中輸入和檢索信息。我們擁有一支由技術專家組成的移動團隊，負責為我們的交通、工程和機械部隊提供一致的消費級移動應用程序。無論是報告軌道車上車和下車、獲得軌道授權還是記錄橋樑檢查的應用程序，我們都會在員工需要的時間和地點提供信息，以便更好地管理他們的工作日。

To wrap up, Slide 10 is a snapshot of our progress on operating safely. We've been aggressively hiring and have a strong focus on equipping our workforce with the training and tools to perform safely and efficiently. I want to thank our entire workforce for their focus on the job at hand throughout the very dynamic third quarter. I am pleased with our progress, but we'll never be satisfied until we reach zero accidents and injuries.

總而言之，幻燈片 10 簡要介紹了我們在安全運營方面取得的進展。我們一直在積極招聘，並非常注重為我們的員工配備培訓和工具，以安全高效地開展工作。我要感謝我們的全體員工在充滿活力的第三季度專注於手頭的工作。我對我們的進步感到滿意，但在我們實現零事故和零傷害之前，我們永遠不會感到滿意。

Thank you, and I will now turn the call over to Ed.

謝謝，我現在將電話轉給埃德。

Thank you, Cindy, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，辛迪，大家早上好。

All right. Turning to Slide 12, let's review our results for the third quarter where we achieved record quarterly results in several categories. Total revenue improved 17% year-over-year to $3.3 billion as fuel surcharge and favorable price conditions more than offset a 2% decline in volume. Most notably, revenue per unit, excluding fuel, increased significantly and established a new record in both our merchandise sector and for Norfolk Southern overall. These results reflect a strong price environment and the deliberate efforts of our commercial teams to pursue these opportunities.

好的。轉到幻燈片 12，讓我們回顧一下第三季度的業績，我們在幾個類別中取得了創紀錄的季度業績。由於燃油附加費和有利的價格條件抵消了 2% 的銷量下降，總收入同比增長 17% 至 33 億美元。最值得注意的是，不包括燃料在內的每單位收入顯著增加，並在我們的商品部門和 Norfolk Southern 整體創造了新紀錄。這些結果反映了強大的價格環境以及我們的商業團隊為尋求這些機會所做的刻意努力。

Before I comment on our individual business groups, I would like to address the impact of our collaborative mitigation efforts in response to a potential labor disruption this quarter. Coming out of August, we were encouraged by the upward trajectory of our volumes. As we move through September and concerns of a labor disruption grew stronger, we acted to guard against the potentially negative impacts on our customers and the communities that we serve in keeping with our no-surprises approach to customer engagement. We spoke with our customers early on about our plans to limit the risk of stranded, hazardous materials and security-sensitive freight like Intermodal by restricting service for these products.

在我對我們的各個業務部門發表評論之前，我想談談我們為應對本季度潛在的勞動力中斷而採取的協作緩解措施的影響。從 8 月開始，我們對銷量的上升軌跡感到鼓舞。隨著我們進入 9 月，對勞動力中斷的擔憂越來越強烈，我們採取行動防止對我們的客戶和我們服務的社區產生潛在的負面影響，以保持我們對客戶參與的無意外方法。我們很早就與客戶討論了我們的計劃，即通過限制對這些產品的服務來限制滯留、危險材料和安全敏感貨物（如聯運）的風險。

We estimate that this approach accounted for roughly 40% to 50% of the volume decline in the quarter or $20 million to $25 million in lost revenue, mostly in our Intermodal markets. Our goal as a customer-centric organization is to gain credibility as a transparent and trusted service provider so that our customers integrate NS further into their supply chain needs. We can only achieve that goal with proactive communication and planning that minimizes disruption. Our customers told us that they appreciated our industry-leading communication, and we're confident that our approach will deliver long-term value for Norfolk Southern, for our shareholders and for our customers. We are pleased that a labor disruption was avoided, and we remain committed to providing quality service that our customers can rely on for their supply chain needs.

我們估計，這種方法約佔本季度銷量下降的 40% 至 50% 或 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的收入損失，主要發生在我們的多式聯運市場。作為一個以客戶為中心的組織，我們的目標是獲得作為透明和值得信賴的服務提供商的信譽，以便我們的客戶將 NS 進一步集成到他們的供應鏈需求中。我們只能通過積極主動的溝通和規劃來實現這一目標，從而最大限度地減少干擾。我們的客戶告訴我們，他們讚賞我們行業領先的溝通方式，我們相信我們的方法將為 Norfolk Southern、我們的股東和我們的客戶帶來長期價值。我們很高興避免了勞動力中斷，我們仍然致力於提供客戶可以依賴的優質服務來滿足他們的供應鏈需求。

Now continuing to our business group's performance in the third quarter. Merchandise volume was down 2% year-over-year, driven by declines in our steel and ethanol markets that were partially offset by higher demand for sand and aggregates. With respect to steel, service challenges related to equipment availability negatively impacted our ability to meet demand. Ethanol shipments were also down as consumption of gasoline declined in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis.

現在繼續我們的業務部門在第三季度的表現。商品銷量同比下降 2%，原因是我們的鋼鐵和乙醇市場下滑，但部分被沙子和骨料需求增加所抵消。在鋼鐵方面，與設備可用性相關的服務挑戰對我們滿足需求的能力產生了負面影響。由於第三季度汽油消費量同比下降，乙醇出貨量也有所下降。

On the positive side, shipments of sand increased more than 43% year-over-year on higher demand related to the strong market for natural gas production. Aggregates were also up due to higher levels of construction activity. Merchandise revenue improved 13% year-over-year to a quarterly record of $1.9 billion on higher revenue from fuel surcharges and from price gains.

從積極的方面來看，由於天然氣生產市場強勁相關的需求增加，沙子的出貨量同比增長超過 43%。由於更高水平的建築活動，骨料也有所增加。由於燃油附加費和價格上漲帶來的收入增加，商品收入同比增長 13% 至 19 億美元的季度記錄。

Moving on to Intermodal, revenue improved 16% for the quarter despite a 5% decline in volume. Revenue per unit reached a record level this quarter, driven by higher revenue from fuel surcharge and price. Intermodal shipments continue to be pressured by supply chain congestion and equipment shortages. This temporary shift was felt most strongly in our domestic business, where volume was down 4% year-over-year. International Intermodal volume declines were driven primarily by car supply and private chassis shortages, both reducing customer demand for inland point Intermodal and limiting our ability to satisfy that demand.

轉向多式聯運，儘管銷量下降了 5%，但該季度的收入增長了 16%。在燃油附加費和價格收入增加的推動下，本季度單位收入達到創紀錄水平。多式聯運繼續受到供應鏈擁堵和設備短缺的壓力。這種暫時的轉變在我們的國內業務中感受最為強烈，其銷量同比下降了 4%。國際多式聯運量下降的主要原因是汽車供應和私人底盤短缺，這既減少了客戶對內陸點多式聯運的需求，也限制了我們滿足該需求的能力。

Lastly, coal market conditions were again favorable for us this quarter, enabling us to deliver 43% growth in revenue for the franchise from volume growth, price improvement and fuel surcharge revenue. Volume growth was led by shipments of utility coal that were up on higher demand spurred by high natural gas prices. Export coal volume was also up due to some carryover from the second quarter and generally improved coal supply. Coal volume growth was partially offset by year-over-year declines in coke shipments due to facility closures.

最後，本季度煤炭市場狀況再次對我們有利，使我們能夠通過銷量增長、價格改善和燃油附加費收入實現 43% 的特許經營收入增長。由於高天然氣價格刺激了更高的需求，公用事業煤的出貨量帶動了銷量增長。由於第二季度的一些結轉和煤炭供應普遍改善，出口煤炭量也有所增加。由於設施關閉，焦炭出貨量同比下降部分抵消了煤炭銷量增長。

Overall, our performance for the quarter reflects continued progress on our strategic plan to drive value for our customers and shareholders while simultaneously working to address pressures related to volume.

總體而言，我們本季度的業績反映了我們在為客戶和股東創造價值的同時努力解決與銷量相關的壓力的戰略計劃的持續進展。

Moving to our outlook for the remainder of the year on Slide 13. Our service is trending in the right direction, and we expect that to be a tailwind to volumes in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we're optimistic that consumer spending and manufacturing activity will support volumes for the remainder of the year. Those expectations are somewhat muted in light of looming recession risks and tightening financial conditions that are pressuring economic activity, especially in interest rate-sensitive markets like housing.

在幻燈片 13 上轉向我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。我們的服務正朝著正確的方向發展，我們預計這將成為第四季度銷量的順風。此外，我們樂觀地認為消費者支出和製造業活動將支持今年剩餘時間的銷量。鑑於迫在眉睫的衰退風險和收緊的金融環境給經濟活動帶來壓力，這些預期在一定程度上有所減弱，尤其是在房地產等對利率敏感的市場。

Volume in our merchandise segment will benefit from growing activity in automotive markets, with U.S. light vehicle production currently expected to increase in the fourth quarter of '22 compared to 2021. Also contributing to growth will be new opportunities to move corn and other grains. Much of the Southeast corn crop is down significantly versus last year. This is likely to increase demand for Midwest-originated corn by rail. Since emerging from the pandemic low, manufacturing activity has been increasing at a steady rate. But we're beginning to see that growth level off with forecasts calling for growth to moderate to 3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

我們的商品部門的銷量將受益於汽車市場活動的增長，目前預計 22 年第四季度美國輕型汽車產量將比 2021 年增加。玉米和其他穀物的運輸新機會也將促進增長。與去年相比，東南部大部分玉米產量大幅下降。這可能會增加鐵路對中西部玉米的需求。自從大流行低潮中復蘇以來，製造業活動一直在穩步增長。但我們開始看到增長趨於平穩，預計第四季度的同比增長率將放緩至 3%。

As the Fed tightens interest rates, mortgage rates have increased to levels that are cooling the housing market. This reduced demand affects several of our merchandise as well as Intermodal markets. Overall, we expect merchandise volumes to be relatively flat in the fourth quarter with some upside potential as service continues to recover.

隨著美聯儲收緊利率，抵押貸款利率已上升至令房地產市場降溫的水平。這種需求減少影響了我們的一些商品以及多式聯運市場。總體而言，我們預計第四季度的商品交易量將相對持平，但隨著服務繼續復甦，仍有一定的上升潛力。

Within Intermodal, our expectation is for volume to be down slightly year-over-year with opportunities from easing terminal congestion and equipment supply being offset by expectations for weaker demand and a softening truck market.

在多式聯運中，我們預計貨運量將同比略有下降，緩解終端擁堵和設備供應的機會被需求疲軟和卡車市場疲軟的預期所抵消。

On the domestic side, national Intermodal volume trends are showing signs of slowing, suggesting weaker peak season demand. However, consumer spending, which has historically been a big driver of this market, is currently forecasted to hold steady through the end of the year, providing underlying support for our domestic Intermodal volumes. We continue to see volume opportunity for domestic Intermodal as our service recovers, and we expect customers to shift loads from the highway to rail as we intently focus on improving domestic Intermodal service.

在國內方面，全國多式聯運貨運量趨勢出現放緩跡象，表明旺季需求疲軟。然而，消費者支出歷來是該市場的主要驅動力，目前預計將在年底前保持穩定，為我們的國內多式聯運量提供潛在支持。隨著我們的服務恢復，我們繼續看到國內多式聯運的大量機會，我們希望客戶將負載從高速公路轉移到鐵路，因為我們專注於改善國內多式聯運服務。

International Intermodal will continue to struggle with congestion and equipment supply, and we expect Intermodal storage charges to remain elevated so long as those issues continue. When supply chain congestion does ease, we expect to deliver additional international volume for customers as Inland Point Intermodal, or IPI, becomes more attractive.

國際多式聯運將繼續與擁堵和設備供應作鬥爭，我們預計只要這些問題繼續存在，多式聯運倉儲費就會保持高位。當供應鏈擁堵確實緩解時，我們預計會為客戶提供更多的國際貨運量，因為 Inland Point Intermodal (IPI) 變得更具吸引力。

And finally, our expectations for coal are that volumes will continue to improve year-over-year in the fourth quarter driven by strength in the markets for both utility and export coal. EIA's latest forecast is for natural gas prices to remain elevated through the end of the year. This will increase demand for coal as a competitive alternative. Seaborne coal prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels through the end of the year, indicating continued demand for U.S. coals abroad. We also anticipate increased coal supply in the fourth quarter, primarily for export, which will create opportunities for coal volume growth.

最後，我們對煤炭的預期是，在公用事業和出口煤炭市場強勁的推動下，第四季度的銷量將繼續同比增長。 EIA 的最新預測是天然氣價格將在年底前保持高位。這將增加對煤炭作為競爭性替代品的需求。到今年年底，海運煤炭價格預計將保持在相對較高的水平，表明海外對美國煤炭的需求持續增長。我們還預計第四季度煤炭供應增加，主要用於出口，這將為煤炭銷量增長創造機會。

To summarize, we have a number of uncertain market signals in front of us right now, but our focus remains on impacting the things that we can control to deliver quality service to our customers and increase value for our shareholders. Overall, we have a fantastic portfolio of customers. And as always, I want to take this opportunity to thank them for their business and for their ongoing partnership.

總而言之，我們現在面前有許多不確定的市場信號，但我們的重點仍然是影響我們可以控制的事情，以便為我們的客戶提供優質服務並為我們的股東增加價值。總體而言，我們擁有出色的客戶組合。和往常一樣，我想藉此機會感謝他們的業務和持續的合作夥伴關係。

I will now turn it over to Mark for an update on our financial results.

我現在將其轉交給馬克，了解我們財務業績的最新情況。

Thank you, and good morning.

謝謝，早上好。

Starting on Slide 15, Ed walked you through the drivers of our 17% growth in revenues. You'll see operating expense of $355 million or 21%, and that includes a $117 million true-up to our compensation accruals based on the terms of the tentative labor agreements. This resulted in the operating ratio increasing year-over-year to 62% for the quarter. Operating income grew $136 million or 12% despite that headwind. EPS was up 34% or $1.04, thanks to strong earnings growth coupled with share shrink, but also from an adjustment to income tax expense related to Pennsylvania's rate reduction that was enacted in the quarter. You will recall we did signal this in our second quarter earnings release.

從幻燈片 15 開始，Ed 帶您了解了我們 17% 的收入增長的驅動因素。您將看到 3.55 億美元或 21% 的運營費用，其中包括根據暫定勞動協議條款對我們的應計薪酬進行的 1.17 億美元調整。這導致本季度的營業比率同比增長至 62%。儘管存在不利因素，營業收入仍增長了 1.36 億美元或 12%。每股收益增長 34% 或 1.04 美元，這要歸功於強勁的盈利增長和股價下跌，以及與本季度實施的賓夕法尼亞州降息相關的所得稅費用調整。你會記得我們在第二季度的收益發布中確實發出了這一信號。

Let's take a moment on Slide 16 to drill specifically into the labor cost adjustments that we reported. As I mentioned, we increased our wage accruals by $117 million in Q3, with $88 million of that amount related to past periods and $29 million related specifically to Q3 2022. The columns represent the period in which the adjustments relate. These amounts, including the impact of the bonus payments, represents more than 2x what we had been assuming. We anticipate another $23 million of incremental expense in Q4, bringing the total amount for the year to $140 million, which represents as much as 110 basis points of headwind to the full year OR from what we had been expecting. It is also worth noting that there is an additional $50 million of incremental label cost that will be capitalized into property additions this year.

讓我們花點時間在幻燈片 16 上專門研究一下我們報告的勞動力成本調整。正如我提到的，我們在第三季度將應計工資增加了 1.17 億美元，其中 8800 萬美元與過去時期相關，2900 萬美元專門與 2022 年第三季度相關。這些列代表調整相關的時期。這些金額，包括獎金支付的影響，是我們之前假設的 2 倍多。我們預計第四季度將再增加 2300 萬美元的支出，使全年的支出總額達到 1.4 億美元，這與我們預期的全年相比有 110 個基點的逆風。還值得注意的是，今年還有 5000 萬美元的增量標籤成本將被資本化用於新增物業。

Now let's take a moment on Slide 17 to reconcile the drivers of OR and EPS since there are some movers in the quarter. The impact of the $88 million out-of-period wage accruals in Q3 was meaningful, representing a 270 basis point headwind to the OR and $0.28 on EPS. We did have a favorable legal settlement in the quarter that provided a $0.05 of help to EPS and 40 basis points of help on the OR. The favorable state tax rate change caused a $136 million reduction to our deferred tax liability, which equates to $0.58 of EPS lift. That leaves a core improvement in EPS of $0.69 and improvement in the operating ratio of 50 basis points, which, I'll point out, includes the absorption of 90 basis points of headwind from the $29 million in-period incremental labor cost adjustments that I spoke to on the prior slide.

現在讓我們花點時間在幻燈片 17 上協調 OR 和 EPS 的驅動因素，因為本季度有一些推動因素。第三季度 8800 萬美元的期外應計工資的影響是有意義的，對 OR 造成 270 個基點的不利影響，對 EPS 造成 0.28 美元的不利影響。我們在本季度確實獲得了有利的法律和解，為 EPS 提供了 0.05 美元的幫助，為 OR 提供了 40 個基點的幫助。有利的州稅率變化使我們的遞延所得稅負債減少了 1.36 億美元，相當於 EPS 提升 0.58 美元。這使得 EPS 的核心改進為 0.69 美元，運營比率提高了 50 個基點，我要指出的是，這包括從我提出的 2900 萬美元的期間增量勞動力成本調整中吸收了 90 個基點的逆風在上一張幻燈片中談到。

Moving now to Slide 18 and the changes in operating expenses of $355 million, which represents a 21% increase year-over-year. Fuel was the primary driver, up $175 million or 84% due almost entirely to price. But as Cindy noted, we did enjoy benefits associated with a 3% fuel efficiency improvement. Compensation and benefits, it is up 21% due to the elevated labor costs associated with the tentative agreements.

現在轉到幻燈片 18，營業費用的變化為 3.55 億美元，同比增長 21%。燃料是主要驅動因素，幾乎完全是由於價格上漲 1.75 億美元或 84%。但正如 Cindy 指出的那樣，我們確實享受到了與提高 3% 的燃油效率相關的好處。由於與臨時協議相關的勞動力成本上升，薪酬和福利增長了 21%。

Moving on, you'll see purchase services and rents collectively up $52 million. Inflation and slower network speed continue to drive up these 2 cost categories. Materials, claims and other expenses were down 4% or $7 million year-over-year, helped in part from the $15 million favorable legal settlement in the other category.

繼續前進，您會看到購買服務和租金合計增加了 5200 萬美元。通貨膨脹和較慢的網絡速度繼續推高這兩個成本類別。材料、索賠和其他費用同比下降 4% 或 700 萬美元，部分原因是其他類別的 1500 萬美元有利法律和解。

Turning now to Slide 19 for the P&L below operating income. Other income was an expense of $2 million in the quarter, $16 million unfavorable compared to last year driven by losses on the company-owned life insurance investments due to negative equity and fixed income market returns in the quarter. While pretax income was up 11% in the quarter, net income was up 27% due to the 12.4% effective tax rate in the quarter, thanks to the benefit recorded from the state tax rate change. EPS was up 34%, greater than net income growth supported by our capital allocation strategy that includes share repurchases.

現在轉到幻燈片 19，了解低於營業收入的損益表。本季度其他收入為 200 萬美元的費用，與去年同期相比減少 1600 萬美元，原因是本季度負資產和固定收益市場回報導致公司擁有的人壽保險投資出現虧損。雖然本季度稅前收入增長了 11%，但由於本季度有效稅率為 12.4%，淨收入增長了 27%，這要歸功於州稅率變化帶來的好處。每股收益增長 34%，高於我們包括股票回購在內的資本配置策略支持的淨收入增長。

Shifting to Slide 20. Cash from operations through 9 months is up $111 million while property additions were higher by $257 million. As we discussed last quarter, I expect capital expenditures to be at the high end of the $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion guidance range, with materials inflation and now incremental wage inflation creating meaningful headwinds. Free cash flow conversion stands at 86%. Shareholder distributions have been strong this year with a 15% increase to our dividends plus continuing solid share repurchase activity.

轉到幻燈片 20。9 個月的運營現金增加了 1.11 億美元，而增加的財產增加了 2.57 億美元。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我預計資本支出將處於 18 億美元至 19 億美元指導範圍的高端，材料通脹和現在的增量工資通脹會造成重大阻力。自由現金流轉換率為 86%。今年的股東分配一直很強勁，我們的股息增加了 15%，加上持續穩健的股票回購活動。

And with that, I'll hand back over to Alan.

然後，我將交還給 Alan。

Thank you, Mark. Noting the considerable changes that occurred in the third quarter, I'd like to update you on our outlook for the balance of 2022.

謝謝你，馬克。注意到第三季度發生的重大變化，我想向您更新我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的展望。

As you'll see on Slide 21, based on the strong Q3 revenue performance, we now see full year revenue growth of 13% plus year-over-year. Ongoing strength in RPU driven by fuel surcharges and strong price gains are helping us overcome lagging volumes which, as Ed laid out, we expect to be flattish overall in Q4.

正如您在幻燈片 21 中看到的那樣，基於第三季度強勁的收入表現，我們現在看到全年收入同比增長 13% 以上。在燃油附加費和強勁的價格上漲的推動下，RPU 的持續走強正在幫助我們克服銷量滯後的問題，正如 Ed 所說，我們預計第四季度整體銷量持平。

Turning to the operating ratio. We are tracking to our previous guidance, excluding the impact from the tentative labor agreements. Mark laid out $140 million of incremental impact for the year, which is roughly 110 basis points of OR headwind. As such, we now expect the all-in OR for the full year to be roughly 62% based on our current assessment of the market.

轉向運營比率。我們正在追踪我們之前的指引，排除了臨時勞工協議的影響。馬克為這一年制定了 1.4 億美元的增量影響，這大約是 OR 逆風的 110 個基點。因此，根據我們目前對市場的評估，我們現在預計全年的整體 OR 約為 62%。

Since I became CEO in May, you have heard me speak to the strengths of our team and culture, our powerful network and the macroeconomic trends supporting highway-to-rail conversion. I have shared some thoughts on our customer-centric operations-driven approach and spoken to the bright future ahead for Norfolk Southern. I continue to be encouraged by my engagements with all of our team members and their commitment to serving our customers. As we approach our December 6 Investor Day, we are eager to share a more detailed view of our long-term strategy for value creation.

自從我在 5 月成為 CEO 以來，您已經聽到我談到了我們團隊和文化的優勢、我們強大的網絡以及支持高速公路向鐵路轉換的宏觀經濟趨勢。我分享了一些關於我們以客戶為中心的運營驅動方法的想法，並談到了 Norfolk Southern 的光明未來。我與所有團隊成員的互動以及他們對服務客戶的承諾繼續鼓舞著我。隨著 12 月 6 日投資者日的臨近，我們渴望分享對我們價值創造長期戰略的更詳細看法。

We will now open the call to questions. Operator?

我們現在將開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will be coming from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Justin Long 和 Stephens 的台詞。

Just to start on the 2022 guidance. If I look at what you're guiding for revenue and your commentary on volumes, it implies that yields will be down at a decent amount sequentially in the fourth quarter. So I was wondering if you could provide more color on that, specifically around coal RPU.

只是為了開始 2022 年的指導。如果我看一下你對收入的指導和你對銷量的評論，這意味著第四季度收益率將連續下降相當可觀的數量。所以我想知道你是否可以提供更多顏色，特別是圍繞煤炭 RPU。

And then maybe secondly, there have been a lot of inefficiencies in the network this year. Is there a way you can put a number on what that cost has been in 2022 as we think about service recovering and that potential future tailwind?

然後也許其次，今年網絡中存在很多低效率問題。當我們考慮服務恢復和未來潛在的順風時，有沒有一種方法可以計算出 2022 年的成本？

Yes, certainly, we see some potential headwinds in some of our markets moving into the fourth quarter, specifically energy, as you called out. And I'll let Ed talk about the projected impact on the top line.

是的，當然，我們看到一些潛在的逆風進入第四季度，特別是能源，正如你所說的那樣。我會讓埃德談談對頂線的預計影響。

Sure. We've seen how seaborne coal prices have fallen, but they have done a new floor and they remain at relatively high levels. On the utility side, we expect there's still a lot of demand out there for that. You factor in what's going on in Europe, and we feel pretty good on the utility side on the steam coal side.

當然。我們已經看到海運煤炭價格是如何下跌的，但是他們已經做了一個新的底價，並且仍然處於相對較高的水平。在公用事業方面，我們預計仍然會有很多需求。你考慮到歐洲正在發生的事情，我們在動力煤方面的公用事業方面感覺非常好。

The met coal side is a different story. There's a lot of cross currents and headwinds, particularly from China that we see. Steel production in China remains muted, and the housing situation there, which consumes a tremendous amount of steel in that market, remains off kilter, so to speak. So we are more guarded about the met coal side of the business. Does that answer your question?

冶金方面是另一回事。有很多逆流和逆風，特別是我們看到的來自中國。中國的鋼鐵生產仍然低迷，可以說，在該市場消耗大量鋼鐵的住房情況仍然不穩定。因此，我們對業務的冶煉煤方面更加謹慎。這是否回答你的問題？

Well, and also, Ed, talk about your outlook for fuel surcharge revenue.

好吧，還有，Ed，談談你對燃油附加費收入的展望。

Yes. Fuel surcharge, when we look at the forward curves and we know we have a 2-month lag, we are expecting that there is a headwind. That's when we come into play in the fourth quarter.

是的。燃油附加費，當我們查看遠期曲線時，我們知道我們有 2 個月的滯後，我們預計會有逆風。那是我們在第四節發揮作用的時候。

Okay. So it sounds like it's more action of fuel and coal RPU versus any slowdown in core price.

好的。因此，這聽起來更像是燃料和煤炭 RPU 的作用與核心價格的任何放緩。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Yes, we -- you've heard us talk about this before. We price to the value of our service in the market, and we're very diligent about that. We are confident with our commercial teams that we're identifying places we're adding value. We had -- we'll see RPU less fuel records in merchandise and overall this quarter, and we've had almost 6 years of revenue improvement or RPU improvement in Intermodal and almost 7 years on our merchandise side. That's through a lot of up and down cycles, freight recessions and freight boom times, and we've consistently been able to deliver. So we're very focused on that side of the business.

是的，我們——你以前聽過我們談論過這個。我們根據我們的服務在市場上的價值定價，並且我們對此非常勤奮。我們對我們的商業團隊充滿信心，我們正在確定我們正在增加價值的地方。我們有——我們將看到商品和本季度整體的 RPU 減少燃料記錄，我們在多式聯運方面有近 6 年的收入改善或 RPU 改善，在我們的商品方面有近 7 年的改善。這是經歷了很多起起伏伏的周期、貨運衰退和貨運繁榮時期，我們一直能夠交付。所以我們非常專注於業務的這一方面。

And as we price to the value of our product, the value of our product is improving.

當我們根據產品的價值定價時，我們產品的價值正在提高。

Yes.

是的。

Got it. And maybe, Mark, on the network inefficiency cost question?

知道了。馬克，關於網絡效率低下的成本問題？

Yes. Clearly, we're suffering incremental service costs related to where we are in our service product today. Honestly, it's at least $40 million a quarter, and those things are -- they show up in comp and ben, it shows up in purchase services. And as things improve going into 2023, we'll start to see relief in the P&L there.

是的。顯然，我們正在承受與我們今天在服務產品中所處位置相關的增量服務成本。老實說，每個季度至少有 4000 萬美元，而且這些東西——它們出現在 comp 和 ben 中，它出現在採購服務中。隨著進入 2023 年情況有所改善，我們將開始看到那裡的損益有所緩解。

Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

So you've talked about volumes and hopefully seeing some improvement there, but I'm just sort of curious when do we see these service metrics more fully translate to volume capability based on demand? And why has there been such a lag?

所以你已經談到了容量並希望在那裡看到一些改進，但我只是有點好奇我們什麼時候可以看到這些服務指標更充分地轉化為基於需求的容量？為什麼會有這樣的滯後？

Jordan, as we noted, volume is a lag to service. We had seen a lot of improvement in our volume sequentially heading up to the potential work stoppage in mid-September. We're starting to see some improvements now. Ed?

正如我們所指出的，約旦的數量滯後於服務。在 9 月中旬可能停工之前，我們已經看到我們的銷量有很大的改善。我們現在開始看到一些改進。埃德？

Yes. And I'll repeat what I said earlier, we felt like we had a lot of momentum going into that strike or the potential for a strike. And we've talked previously about the IPI issue at our railroad, and that continues to impact volumes in the third quarter as our international customer portfolio made decisions to do more port-to-port services, specifically on short-haul lanes that are typically sensitive to spot truck prices.

是的。我會重複我之前說過的話，我們覺得我們有很大的動力進入罷工或罷工的可能性。我們之前已經討論過我們鐵路的 IPI 問題，並且隨著我們的國際客戶組合決定提供更多的港口到港口服務，特別是在通常是對現貨卡車價格敏感。

If you look, our revenue per tonne models in Intermodal declined 1% on a 5% volume decline, and that really confirms to us that the headwinds are highest in these very short haul lanes. We see some factors that have driven these IPI decisions like ocean freight rates. They're really reverting to a more normal course. We have a very broad base of international customers. And when you look back pre-pandemic, the IPI business, the Inland Port International, played a significant role in our customer supply chain. And as inland congestion eases, those supply chains are going to return to normal, and we think our customers -- well, we know our customers are telling us that they expect to increase their use of IPI as that happens.

如果你看一下，我們在多式聯運中每噸模型的收入下降了 1%，銷量下降了 5%，這確實向我們證實了這些非常短的運輸路線的阻力最大。我們看到了一些推動這些 IPI 決策的因素，例如海運費率。他們真的回到了更正常的過程。我們擁有非常廣泛的國際客戶群。當你回顧大流行前，IPI 業務，內陸港口國際，在我們的客戶供應鏈中發揮了重要作用。隨著內陸交通擁堵的緩解，這些供應鏈將恢復正常，我們認為我們的客戶——好吧，我們知道我們的客戶告訴我們，他們希望在這種情況下增加對 IPI 的使用。

We talk to our customers every day, and we are very encouraged by the feedback we're getting. We have customers coming to us that are recognizing the change in our service product for the better and are looking to put additional volume on the railroad. As one example, I would cite the ag markets where we've been able to really participate in some of the spot markets that previously we weren't able to because we have new capacity because of the improvements in our service product. That's just an example.

我們每天都與客戶交談，收到的反饋讓我們深受鼓舞。我們有客戶來找我們，他們認識到我們的服務產品發生了更好的變化，並希望在鐵路上增加運量。作為一個例子，我想舉一個我們能夠真正參與到以前無法參與的現貨市場的農業市場，因為我們的服務產品有了改進，我們有了新的產能。那隻是一個例子。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Wetherbee。

I guess we are seeing some warning signals in terms of economic factors, and I guess I just wanted to make sure I understood sort of how you guys are going to manage the network as you sort of potentially deal with those maybe in the first half of next year, maybe over the course of next year. You've got the service improvement underway. It looks like hiring is kind of where you need it to be. I guess how flexible can the network be through potential volume volatility as we kind of progress over the course of the next several quarters?

我想我們在經濟因素方面看到了一些警告信號，我想我只是想確保我了解你們將如何管理網絡，因為你們可能會在上半年處理這些問題明年，也許在明年的過程中。您已經在進行服務改進。看起來招聘是您需要的地方。我想隨著我們在接下來的幾個季度中取得進展，網絡通過潛在的交易量波動會有多靈活？

Chris, we are intently focused on continuing our service recovery. It is the value of our product. And as Ed noted, we price to the value of the product. And as our product value improves, we continue to see more volume and revenue opportunities for us.

克里斯，我們專注於繼續我們的服務恢復。這是我們產品的價值。正如埃德所說，我們根據產品的價值定價。隨著我們產品價值的提高，我們繼續看到更多的銷量和收入機會。

We're encouraged by the number of conductor trainees in our pipeline. Right now, it's about 950, which is, I think, pretty close to our high in 2022. And we are continuing to hire for some specific locations. As we've talked about, we have about 95 different true hiring locations. We're going to reassess our legacy assumptions on staffing, and we're not going to make any unilateral commitments on what we're going to do going forward. I will commit that we will be data-driven in our approach, and we're going to make decisions based on the long-term value creation, balancing service, cost control and growth.

我們對管道中的指揮培訓生人數感到鼓舞。現在，它大約是 950，我認為這非常接近我們 2022 年的高點。我們正在繼續為某些特定地點招聘。正如我們所說，我們有大約 95 個不同的真實招聘地點。我們將重新評估我們對人員配置的遺留假設，我們不會對我們將要做什麼做出任何單方面承諾。我承諾我們將以數據為導向，我們將根據長期價值創造、平衡服務、成本控制和增長來做出決策。

Cindy, you're thinking about some specific opportunities to add more flexibility.

辛迪，你正在考慮一些增加靈活性的具體機會。

Yes. So in the short term, we obviously -- we do have some training opportunities to replenish our locomotive engineer ranks that we set back to conductors and allow us to step them up when we need to because it takes longer to train an engineer than it does a conductor. We'll also be enhancing our Go Team membership, the folks we're going to have in our Go Team group. It won't be a huge number of people, but that will also be a resiliency tactic that we'll take.

是的。因此，在短期內，我們顯然 - 我們確實有一些培訓機會來補充我們的機車工程師隊伍，我們將這些機會重新設置為指揮，並允許我們在需要時加強他們，因為培訓工程師比培訓工程師需要更長的時間一個導體。我們還將加強我們的 Go Team 成員，我們將在我們的 Go Team 組中擁有這些人。人數不會很多，但這也是我們將採取的彈性策略。

And in the effort to improve our conductor availability through the downturns that we've had -- or through the challenges that we've had, we've [territorily] qualified in a single segment because that's where they would stand to work. And now we need to qualify them on other segments, radiating out of that same supply point.

為了通過我們所經歷的低迷時期或我們所遇到的挑戰來提高我們的導體可用性，我們已經 [領土] 在一個細分市場中取得了資格，因為那是他們可以工作的地方。現在我們需要在其他細分市場上對它們進行資格認證，從同一個供應點輻射出去。

So there's a number of actions that we'll take here to make sure we're fortified and ready to go into any upturn. Going through a downturn, we'll manage through these opportunities. And then as we come into an upturn, they'll be available to us.

因此，我們將在這裡採取一些行動，以確保我們得到強化並準備好迎接任何好轉。經歷低迷時期，我們將把握住這些機會。然後當我們進入好轉期時，它們將可供我們使用。

Okay. That's helpful. And I guess, I think there's been some concern for the industry broadly that if we were to see maybe a more sudden drop-off in volume that the industry would be less sort of able to react as quickly as possible, sort of resulting potentially in worse decremental margins than we've seen in previous downturns. I think that sort of has something to do with furloughing employees, maybe a bit more aggressively in previous times. Any thoughts on whether you think that is a valid concern as we go into next year? Or are there enough levers that you have to pull to be able to offset that?

好的。這很有幫助。而且我想，我認為整個行業都有一些擔憂，如果我們看到銷量可能更突然下降，那麼該行業將無法盡快做出反應，這可能會導致比我們在之前的經濟衰退中看到的更糟糕的遞減利潤率。我認為這與讓員工休假有關，以前可能更激進一些。在我們進入明年時，您是否認為這是一個合理的擔憂？有什麼想法嗎？或者你是否有足夠的槓桿來抵消它？

Well, I think we -- as you noted, I mean, the labor market is different than in the past, and our recruiting efforts are a little bit different than in the past. We know how long it takes to train and hire an employee, and we talk about having 95 different hiring groups that we have to manage that through. So I will say that we have to make sure we manage through downturns in such a way that we're in a good place to handle the upturns. That's how we're going to manage -- that's how we're going to grow long term. So we have levers such as attrition that can help us if we need it, but we also know that we have to be fortified in having a good hiring pipeline or a line of sight to that hiring pipeline so that we can manage the upturn. We don't just want to manage one side.

好吧，我認為我們 - 正如你所指出的，我的意思是，勞動力市場與過去不同，我們的招聘工作與過去略有不同。我們知道培訓和僱用一名員工需要多長時間，並且我們談到有 95 個不同的招聘小組，我們必須通過這些小組來管理。因此，我要說的是，我們必須確保以一種能夠很好地應對經濟好轉的方式來度過經濟低迷時期。這就是我們的管理方式——這就是我們長期發展的方式。因此，我們擁有減員等槓桿，可以在需要時為我們提供幫助，但我們也知道，我們必須加強擁有良好的招聘渠道或對該招聘渠道的視線，以便我們能夠應對好轉。我們不只是想管理一側。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

Mark, you talked about at least $40 million a quarter of sort of network inefficiencies. I'm wondering how much of storage revenue, though, are we seeing per quarter? And what's a more normal number? So as service gets better, that $40 million of cost goes away, but maybe how much of this storage revenue goes? I'm just trying to understand the puts and takes.

馬克，你談到了每季度至少 4000 萬美元的網絡效率低下問題。不過，我想知道每個季度我們能看到多少存儲收入？什麼是更正常的數字？因此，隨著服務變得更好，這 4000 萬美元的成本就會消失，但也許這些存儲收入會減少多少？我只是想了解 puts 和 takes。

Yes. Scott, clearly, there is some storage revenue that helps mitigate that, the accessorial revenues that we talked to. And certainly, as service recovers, we'll start to see those accessorial revenues come down.

是的。斯科特，很明顯，有一些存儲收入有助於減輕我們談到的輔助收入。當然，隨著服務的恢復，我們將開始看到這些附加收入下降。

Ed, I don't know if you want to talk about the pacing in which you see that...

埃德，我不知道你是否想談談你看到的節奏......

Yes. No, earlier this year, we thought that the supply chains would unlock faster, and we would start to see that storage number come off as customers got more fluid into warehousing on the street. Frankly, that hadn't happened. If you look at many of our hinterland markets, particularly deeper into the Midwest, we continue to see the same issues that we saw earlier. So the storage number continues to remain elevated, and we expect right now that it's going to continue to be elevated in the fourth quarter. I think next year, we're hopeful that supply chains will unlock, and there'll be more opportunities move volume instead of storage.

是的。不，今年早些時候，我們認為供應鏈會解鎖得更快，我們會開始看到存儲數量隨著客戶越來越多地進入街上的倉儲而下降。坦率地說，這並沒有發生。如果你看看我們的許多腹地市場，尤其是深入到中西部，我們會繼續看到我們之前看到的相同問題。因此存儲數量繼續保持高位，我們現在預計它將在第四季度繼續上升。我認為明年，我們希望供應鏈能夠解鎖，並且會有更多機會移動容量而不是存儲。

And it's also true that while storage revenue is elevated, the year-over-year comps are slowing down.

的確，雖然存儲收入有所增加，但同比收入正在放緩。

Absolutely. We've lapped it, yes.

絕對地。我們已經完成了，是的。

So when you think about the puts and takes for next year, I think it -- probably another good year of pricing, service improvement, some uncertainty with volume wage inflation. Do you think the pieces are there to start getting margins higher again next year?

因此，當你考慮明年的賣出和賣出時，我認為這可能是定價、服務改善以及數量工資通脹的一些不確定性的又一個好年頭。您認為明年這些產品的利潤率會再次提高嗎？

Well, we're actually putting together the budget for '23 now, and there's a lot of big assumptions that have to be made. So we'll be back to you with '23 guidance. Certainly, that's our goal at this point in time. We've got to get inflation under control. We've got to try to get some offsets on the top line from that. How much volume we can get is going to be a big lever as well. So we'll come back to you with the '23 numbers.

好吧，我們現在實際上正在匯總 23 年的預算，並且必須做出很多重大假設。因此，我們將向您提供 23 年的指導。當然，這是我們目前的目標。我們必須控制通貨膨脹。我們必須嘗試從中獲得一些抵消。我們可以獲得多少數量也將成為一個重要的槓桿。因此，我們將返回給您 23 個數字。

Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 Cowen。

I wanted to look a little bit about Intermodal's growth rate and sort of how much do you think it's been impacted by, A, your service levels and, B, some of the labor issues that we saw last quarter. So in other words, what's a good economic base to look at '23 off of '22?

我想了解一下 Intermodal 的增長率，以及您認為它受到的影響有多大，A，您的服務水平，B，我們上個季度看到的一些勞工問題。所以換句話說，從 22 年到 23 年的良好經濟基礎是什麼？

Intermodal is clearly a growth driver for us going forward. Ed, why don't you talk about how we're going to continue to leverage that unique franchise strength?

多式聯運顯然是我們前進的增長動力。艾德，你為什麼不談談我們將如何繼續利用這種獨特的特許經營實力？

Yes. We think we have the most powerful franchise in North America when it comes to Intermodal. We're located square in the heart of the U.S. consumer markets as well as manufacturing with access -- great access to all the East Coast ports and all the Western railroads.

是的。在多式聯運方面，我們認為我們擁有北美最強大的特許經營權。我們位於美國消費市場和製造業的中心地帶，交通便利——方便前往所有東海岸港口和所有西部鐵路。

We talk to our customers every day. They are investing for growth. Our channel partners are priming themselves to grow with Norfolk Southern as our service improves. And as our service improves, we're creating additional opportunities for them to satisfy supply chain issues that are still manifesting themselves out there. We know that there's a lot of cross current and a lot of, what I would call, mixed signals out there in the macroeconomic environment. We're encouraged by what's going on in manufacturing, which had a great report in September. Future orders appear to be somewhat of a drag.

我們每天都與客戶交談。他們正在為增長而投資。隨著我們服務的改進，我們的渠道合作夥伴正準備與 Norfolk Southern 一起成長。隨著我們服務的改進，我們正在為他們創造更多機會來解決仍然存在的供應鏈問題。我們知道在宏觀經濟環境中存在很多交叉電流和很多我稱之為混合信號。我們對製造業的發展感到鼓舞，製造業在 9 月份發布了一份出色的報告。未來的訂單似乎有點拖累。

It's undeniable that with interest rates going up and inflation staying stubbornly high, there is some demand destruction out there. But we're confident that for our customers and for our channel partners, Intermodal is still going to be a great way for them to save money going forward in a very inflationary environment as they take freight off the highway and put it on the railroad.

不可否認的是，隨著利率上升和通貨膨脹居高不下，需求受到了一些破壞。但我們相信，對於我們的客戶和我們的渠道合作夥伴而言，多式聯運仍然是他們在通貨膨脹非常大的環境中節省資金的好方法，因為他們將貨物從高速公路上運到鐵路上。

Jason, we're looking forward to sharing more of our long-term vision for value creation at our Investor Day in 6 weeks. And clearly, Intermodal is a key component of that.

Jason，我們期待在 6 週後的投資者日上分享更多關於價值創造的長期願景。顯然，多式聯運是其中的關鍵組成部分。

I look forward to hearing that down there. I was just trying to get sort of -- if you guys can even put a ballpark figure on sort of how many growth points, service, labor issues and lack of equipment might have cost you this year on a 3-quarter basis so far?

我期待在那裡聽到。我只是想知道——如果你們能給出一個大概的數字，說明今年到目前為止，有多少增長點、服務、勞動力問題和設備缺乏可能讓你們付出了代價？

Well, I think you nailed them all. And then I think you should also add in this IPI issue where the short-haul business from the ports is being trucked. Despite that and despite the fact that our Intermodal volumes were down by 1% in the quarter, as Ed noted, our revenue ton miles in Intermodal were up 5%.

嗯，我想你把它們都釘牢了。然後我認為你還應該添加這個 IPI 問題，其中港口的短途業務正在被卡車運輸。儘管如此，儘管我們的多式聯運運輸量在本季度下降了 1%，正如 Ed 指出的那樣，我們在多式聯運方面的收入噸英里增長了 5%。

Got you. So you think that if we didn't have all these issues, you guys have positive volumes at least this year.

明白了所以你認為如果我們沒有所有這些問題，你們至少今年會有積極的銷量。

There's absolutely no doubt.

毫無疑問。

Okay. Really quick, if I can get one more in. The (inaudible) tax benefit in the quarter, is there going to be an ongoing benefit that will impact your future tax rate?

好的。真的很快，如果我能再得到一個。本季度的（聽不清）稅收優惠，是否會持續影響您未來的稅率？

Pretty modest at the total level in any given quarter. It's kind of within that range that we guide. I don't think it's going to adjust the range, the effective tax rate that we guide.

在任何給定季度的總水平上都相當適中。它在我們指導的範圍內。我不認為它會調整範圍，即我們指導的有效稅率。

Our next question is from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Tom Wadewitz。

Yes. So I'll give you the 2 questions upfront. So the first one would just be on pricing. Mark, you talked about the big assumptions in the budget for 2023 that you need top line to offset some of the inflation. I wonder maybe for Ed, if you can just give some commentary on how sensitive you think prices in your book to a weaker truckload market and falling truckload contract rates. Can you accelerate pricing against that backdrop? Or is weaker truck something we should really be mindful of?

是的。所以我會提前給你兩個問題。所以第一個只是關於定價。馬克，你談到了 2023 年預算中的重大假設，即你需要收入來抵消部分通貨膨脹。我想知道也許對於 Ed，你是否可以就你認為書中的價格對疲軟的卡車市場和下降的卡車合同費率有多敏感發表一些評論。你能在這種背景下加快定價嗎？或者我們真的應該注意較弱的卡車嗎？

And then the second one is just on volume. I think we've had this assessment that improving service that you're delivering more capacity would translate to stronger volume. It sounds like that's maybe not the case just because the markets are getting a bit weaker. So I don't know if that's right or if you still think there are segments that are going to see stronger volumes as you continue to improve the service.

然後第二個只是音量。我認為我們已經做出這樣的評估，即改善您提供更多容量的服務將轉化為更大的數量。聽起來情況可能並非如此，因為市場變得有點疲軟。所以我不知道這是否正確，或者您是否仍然認為隨著您繼續改進服務，某些細分市場的銷量會增加。

Sure. On the revenue side, on the price side, like I said, we've been talking to our customers every single day about where price is going. We've got a great track record of being able to deliver price as we increase the value that we're delivering to our customers, and they can transfer that on. Our service is improving in -- and I will tell you that our customers are confident that as our service improves, they can put additional volume against the railroad.

當然。在收入方面，在價格方面，就像我說的，我們每天都在與客戶討論價格的走向。隨著我們增加向客戶交付的價值，我們在交付價格方面擁有良好的記錄，他們可以將其轉移。我們的服務正在改進——我會告訴你，我們的客戶有信心，隨著我們服務的改進，他們可以增加鐵路運輸量。

And look, that helps save money for our customers in the long term. We price to the value of the market. We know that there's a lot of noise around the spot market, which goes up and goes down. We stay focused on the long-term trajectory of contract rates, and our customers understand that.

從長遠來看，這有助於為我們的客戶節省資金。我們根據市場價值定價。我們知道現貨市場周圍有很多噪音，有漲有跌。我們始終關注合同費率的長期軌跡，我們的客戶也明白這一點。

On the -- can you repeat your volume question again?

關於——你能再重複一遍你的音量問題嗎？

What -- okay. I guess just to finish that thought, but do you think we ought to be careful about the truck market getting weaker or you say, no, that's not a big impact on our pricing in '23?

什麼——好的。我想只是為了結束這個想法，但你認為我們應該小心卡車市場變弱，或者你說，不，這對我們在 23 年的定價沒有太大影響？

Our RTMs went up 5%.

我們的 RTM 上漲了 5%。

Yes. I think the macro economy is going to tell us where we're all going in terms of economic trajectory. We have been able to price and continue to be successful in pricing because of the value that we're delivering to those customers. I think a recession, if there is one coming, or a downturn, that's going to dictate how much volume we can put against the railroad and how much is available to put against the railroad. But we're confident that we're going to be able to do that.

是的。我認為宏觀經濟將告訴我們我們在經濟軌跡方面的發展方向。由於我們為這些客戶提供的價值，我們已經能夠定價並繼續在定價方面取得成功。我認為經濟衰退，如果有經濟衰退或經濟衰退，將決定我們可以對鐵路投入多少以及可以對鐵路投入多少。但我們有信心我們能夠做到這一點。

On the volume side, I will tell you that we have a strong portfolio of customers that are, like I said, they're -- we stick to the script here, they're investing to grow. We see that happening, and I think as the IPI situation reverts to normal in terms of conditions that allow that, our customers are going to find value in that market as well.

在數量方面，我會告訴你，我們擁有強大的客戶組合，就像我說的，他們是——我們堅持這裡的腳本，他們正在投資以實現增長。我們看到這種情況正在發生，而且我認為隨著 IPI 情況在允許的情況下恢復正常，我們的客戶也會在該市場中找到價值。

Okay, yes. And what about Industrial? Like if service improves, do you expect metals and forest products and chemicals volumes to improve in response to that?

好的，是的。那麼工業呢？比如，如果服務有所改善，您是否預計金屬、林產品和化學品的銷量會隨之改善？

Yes. And in fact, we're seeing, on the bulk side of our network, additional throughput capacity that we're putting up against customers right now in the spot markets. That's indicative of the opportunities that are out there. I think I noted in the third quarter, we had cycle times on equipment that still inhibited our ability to serve everyone that wanted to be served. And so as our fluid improves, we're going to be able to put additional capacity against them, too.

是的。事實上，我們看到，在我們網絡的散裝側，我們現在正在現貨市場上針對客戶提供額外的吞吐量。這表明存在機會。我想我在第三季度注意到，我們的設備週期時間仍然限制了我們為每個想要服務的人提供服務的能力。因此，隨著我們流體的改善，我們也將能夠增加額外的容量來對抗它們。

Our customers are telling us that there's additional volume out there that they want to put on the railroad. If you look at most of the manufacturing sectors, there's still a lot of unfilled orders out there that they're working through. Even in a -- what I would call a declining demand environment, there's still a lot of back orders. So we're confident about our ability to continue to grow volumes and service improvement.

我們的客戶告訴我們，他們想在鐵路上增加額外的容量。如果你看看大多數製造業，他們仍然有很多未完成的訂單正在處理中。即使在我稱之為需求下降的環境中，仍然有很多未交貨訂單。因此，我們對繼續增加數量和改進服務的能力充滿信心。

(Operator Instructions) The next question will be coming from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Mark, I just wanted to deconstruct the -- so the guidance of 62% OR, I think includes the $88 million prior period labor adjustments and then $15 million of legal settlements. So I'm just trying to figure out, it looks like it's really like 61.5% if you kind of strip out to maybe extraordinary, if you could just talk about that. And then the implied fourth quarter is something like, I think, like 63% OR or something like that to get to that 61.5%. I mean, you have to go back to like the fourth quarter of '19 to get something that low or high. And yield is up over 20% since then. Revenue is up over 10% since then. So I'm just trying to reconcile, first, if my numbers are correct. And then two, why would there be such a deterioration despite even some of the headwinds based on kind of the improvement you've seen in the business from a yield and service perspective.

馬克，我只是想解構——所以 62% OR 的指導，我認為包括 8800 萬美元的前期勞動調整和 1500 萬美元的法律和解。所以我只是想弄清楚，如果你能脫穎而出，看起來真的很像 61.5%，也許是非凡的，如果你能談談的話。然後隱含的第四季度大約是 63% 或類似的東西，以達到 61.5%。我的意思是，你必須回到 19 年第四季度才能得到那麼低或高的東西。從那時起，收益率上升了 20% 以上。自那時以來，收入增長了 10% 以上。所以我只是想先核對一下，如果我的數字是正確的。然後兩個，為什麼會出現這樣的惡化，儘管從收益和服務的角度來看，基於您在業務中看到的某種改進，甚至存在一些不利因素。

Thanks, Amit. So yes, the guidance that we gave of the 62% for the full year includes the retroactive wage adjustment as well as the ongoing wage adjustments. So basically, the $140 million, it is the all-in including the items that we called out this quarter. So it's -- that's kind of where it comes to. I'm not getting to your 63% number implied for Q4. So if you do the all-in, I think it's largely in line with -- in Q4, it should be largely in line with the full year number.

謝謝，阿米特。所以是的，我們給出的全年 62% 的指導包括追溯工資調整以及正在進行的工資調整。所以基本上，1.4 億美元，它是包括我們本季度調用的項目在內的全部。所以它 - 這就是它所涉及的地方。我沒有得到第四季度隱含的 63% 的數字。因此，如果你全部投入，我認為它在很大程度上符合 - 在第四季度，它應該在很大程度上符合全年數字。

Okay. Maybe I'll take that offline. But I'm just trying to think like if you strip out the $88 million, you're really looking at -- obviously, that's not an ongoing -- that's prior period. So maybe...

好的。也許我會把它脫機。但我只是想想想，如果你去掉 8800 萬美元，你真的在看——顯然，這不是持續的——那是前期。所以也許...

Correct. Correct.

正確的。正確的。

So maybe 61.5% is kind of the right way to think about the jumping off point as you move into '23. Is that a fair way to think about it?

因此，當您進入 23 世紀時，也許 61.5% 是考慮起點的正確方法。這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？

Yes. We were -- when you ignore the $88 million and you look at our restated Q3, and then you can look at Q4 inclusive of the $23 million that we told you about, it's obviously -- it's a much lower number than the 62%.

是的。我們是——當你忽略 8800 萬美元，看看我們重述的第三季度，然後你可以看看第四季度，包括我們告訴你的 2300 萬美元，很明顯——這個數字比 62% 低得多。

The next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Bascome Majors 與 Susquehanna 的對話。

As we look out into next year with the visibility into the union labor wage increases, can you talk a little bit about either broader rail inflation or something in a cost per employee kind of context that we can think about modeling, just -- without getting all the way to preliminary guiding next year? Just what sort of cost inflation on the labor front or overall are you expecting versus history?

當我們展望明年工會勞動工資增長的可見性時，你能否談談更廣泛的鐵路通脹或我們可以考慮建模的每名員工成本的某種背景，只是 - 沒有得到明年一路初步指導？與歷史相比，您預計在勞動力方面或整體上會出現什麼樣的成本通脹？

Bascome, this is Mark. So the -- if you look at our comp per employee in the third quarter and you take out the retro wage adjustments, it's -- you'll get to about $34,250 for the quarter. And I would probably guide you all to think that same number would apply in Q4 because that is kind of the new number. It's baking in this 7% higher wage that took effect in July. So that would kind of go sideways there in Q4.

巴斯科姆，這是馬克。所以——如果你看看我們第三季度的每名員工薪酬，並剔除追溯工資調整——你將在本季度獲得約 34,250 美元。而且我可能會引導大家認為相同的數字將適用於第四季度，因為這是一種新數字。 7 月份生效的 7% 的工資上漲正在醞釀之中。所以這會在第四季度橫盤整理。

And then as you think about 2023, what we typically see in the first quarter is a resetting of the payroll taxes, and so that will knock it up a couple of points in conjunction with assumptions for higher bonus payout as well. So you'd probably see a point or 2 increase in that number going into the first half of next year. And then, of course, when you get to the back half of next year, you have another wage jump that comes from the contractual agreement numbers that you would have seen published. So that will probably go up another few points in the back half.

然後當你想到 2023 年時，我們通常在第一季度看到的是工資稅的重置，因此這將與更高獎金支出的假設一起將其提高幾個百分點。因此，到明年上半年，您可能會看到該數字增加 1 個或 2 個百分點。然後，當然，當你到達明年下半年時，你會看到另一次工資上漲，這來自你會看到公佈的合同協議數字。所以這可能會在後半段再上升幾分。

So that's probably the way I would look at it. It probably wants to go up more than a few points, but we will have some service cost relief as service improves and some of those costs that we are incurring related to overtime drayage -- not drayage, sorry, overtime and training costs, et cetera, start to subside. So I would model it out that way. A point or 2 elevation here from that level in the first half and then another, call it, a few points in the second half.

所以這可能就是我看待它的方式。它可能想要提高不止幾個點，但隨著服務的改善，我們會減少一些服務成本，而我們產生的一些成本與加班拖運有關——不是拖運，抱歉，加班和培訓成本，等等，開始消退。所以我會那樣做模型。上半場比那個水平高出一分或兩分，然後在下半場又比這個水平高出一分或兩分。

The next question is from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Ben Nolan 與 Stifel 的對話。

So as I'm looking at the 4Q sort of service improvements that look like they're having an effect with train speed and dwell and so forth and then matching that up with the increase in headcount that you have, just curious if you can frame in how much of the service improvements, you can say, put at the feet of being more fully staffed or appropriately staffed or whatever versus just sort of the -- well, any other factors that might be helping there.

因此，當我看到第 4 季度的服務改進時，它們似乎對火車速度和停留時間等產生了影響，然後將其與您擁有的員工人數的增加相匹配，只是好奇您是否可以構建您可以說，服務改進的多少取決於人員配備是否充足或人員配備是否適當或其他什麼，而不是——好吧，任何其他可能有幫助的因素。

Thanks for the question, Ben. I think hiring is a critical part of our service improvement efforts. We established a target that we shared with the STB of about, call it, 7,550 qualified T&Es by mid-2023. And we are ahead of that target as we head into November. And when we think of that number, just so we're really clear, and that top line number, we have to recognize there's 95 hiring locations underneath it. So while that number is important that we also have to have folks in the right critical locations.

謝謝你的問題，本。我認為招聘是我們服務改進工作的關鍵部分。我們制定了一個與 STB 共享的目標，即到 2023 年年中大約有 7,550 個合格的 T&E。隨著我們進入 11 月，我們已經領先於該目標。當我們想到這個數字時，我們真的很清楚，那個最重要的數字，我們必須認識到它下面有 95 個招聘地點。因此，儘管這個數字很重要，但我們還必須在正確的關鍵位置安排人員。

I would say another lever that we pulled and we've talked about it in prior quarters is our TOP|SPG operating plan initiative that is in place. It's really helped us, I think, to have a more executable plan. And it's boiled down into a comprehensive review of connection standards, our distributed power playbook, and help us to recalibrate train meet. So as we get closer and closer on time, that fluidity continues to -- allow us to be more fluid, I guess, is the best way to put it. So I would say those 2 things are the biggest levers that we've had.

我想說的是，我們採取的另一個槓桿是我們已經實施的 TOP|SPG 運營計劃倡議，我們在前幾個季度已經討論過了。我認為，制定更具可執行性的計劃確實幫助了我們。它歸結為對連接標準、我們的分佈式電源劇本的全面審查，並幫助我們重新校準火車會議。因此，隨著我們越來越接近時間，這種流動性將繼續——讓我們變得更加流動，我想，這是最好的表達方式。所以我想說這兩件事是我們擁有的最大槓桿。

Then recall that we implemented the first phase of TOP|SPG at the very end of the second quarter. And then in the third quarter, our train speeds increased by 20%. And as Cindy noted, it applies the principles of PSR, and it's really focused on balance, simplicity and executability.

然後回想一下，我們在第二季度末實施了 TOP|SPG 的第一階段。然後在第三季度，我們的列車速度提高了 20%。正如 Cindy 指出的那樣，它應用了 PSR 的原則，並且真正專注於平衡、簡單性和可執行性。

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Cindy, sticking with some of the service questions and updates to issues from the recent past hasn't been much talk about chassis recently. Is that because the availability there has cleared up meaningfully? And how does that impact as you think about the excess equipment or the spare capacity on the network once you are appropriately resourced and the economic backdrop you're looking at for next year?

辛迪，堅持一些服務問題和最近的問題更新最近沒有太多關於底盤的話題。那是因為那裡的可用性已經有意義地清除了嗎？一旦您獲得適當的資源以及您正在尋找明年的經濟背景，當您考慮網絡上的過剩設備或備用容量時，這會產生怎樣的影響？

Ed, some of the chassis issues in the past have been our own. Some have been our customers. Could you cover that, please?

Ed，過去的一些底盤問題是我們自己的。有些是我們的客戶。你能覆蓋那個嗎？

Sure. And we've been successful in getting a portion of our order online of our chassis, and we're seeing that help in terms of fluidity. I will tell you on the international side, there still remains a lot of shortages out there mostly because I believe those units are deployed on the street or at a warehouse. And it continues to be an issue on the international side of the business, particularly in these hinterland markets, as we talked about earlier. We deployed a number of countermeasures which includes some temporary storage facilities that we've been able to open to help accommodate our customers. But we will continue to look for additional fluidity going forward, particularly on the private chassis side.

當然。我們已經成功地獲得了我們底盤的部分在線訂單，並且我們看到了這在流動性方面的幫助。我會告訴你，在國際方面，那裡仍然存在很多短缺，主要是因為我相信這些單位部署在街上或倉庫裡。正如我們之前談到的那樣，它仍然是國際業務的一個問題，特別是在這些腹地市場。我們部署了一些對策，其中包括一些我們已經能夠開放的臨時存儲設施，以幫助容納我們的客戶。但我們將繼續尋找未來的額外流動性，特別是在私人底盤方面。

So Ed, just to be clear. I mean is there any improvement or any line of sight towards improvement because it was in kind of major focus, let's call it, 9 months ago and maybe not so much anymore? But it sounds like it's still having a really big impact, especially on your international Intermodal.

所以埃德，只是為了清楚。我的意思是，是否有任何改進或任何改進的視線，因為它是主要焦點，讓我們稱之為，9 個月前，也許不再那麼多了？但聽起來它仍然有很大的影響，尤其是對你們的國際聯運。

On the international Intermodal side, it is having an impact, and that's not a chassis or an asset that we control per se. For our chassis on our equipment, we've seen some relief both in terms of the fluidity side, but mostly because we've been able to add some chassis.

在國際多式聯運方面，它正在產生影響，這不是我們本身控制的底盤或資產。對於我們設備上的底盤，我們在流動性方面看到了一些緩解，但主要是因為我們已經能夠添加一些底盤。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brandon Oglenski 與巴克萊銀行的合作。

Look, I don't mean to be near term or quarterly focused here, but can we come back to the implied 4Q sequential on the operating ratio? Because, Mark, if I back out the $88 million of prior year accruals and maybe even the legal settlement, it still looks like you're guiding OR up maybe 400 to 500 basis points sequentially, which I think would be one of the worst outcomes if we go back in time for your company. So what are we missing on the cost side? Or is this really a deceleration on the revenue front that we should be thinking?

看，我並不是要關注近期或季度，但我們能否回到隱含的第四季度營業比率？因為，馬克，如果我取消前一年的 8800 萬美元應計費用，甚至可能是法律和解，看起來你仍然在指導或連續上漲 400 到 500 個基點，我認為這將是最糟糕的結果之一如果我們回到貴公司的時間。那麼我們在成本方面缺少什麼？或者這真的是我們應該考慮的收入方面的減速嗎？

Yes. Look, I think the story here, it's mainly a top line story. We see the expenses largely in line with the third quarter when you exclude the labor adjustments that were historic -- I'm sorry, that were retroactively made as well as the favorable legal item that we called out. So really, what we're talking about is more of a top line story. So Ed talked a little bit about the RPU assumptions that we made on energy pricing. Hopefully, that's conservative and that comes back, but it's really less about cost and more about just a little bit of deceleration.

是的。看，我認為這裡的故事主要是頭條新聞。當你排除具有歷史意義的勞動力調整時，我們看到的費用與第三季度基本一致——對不起，這些調整是追溯的，以及我們提出的有利法律項目。所以說真的，我們談論的更多是頭條新聞。因此，Ed 談到了我們對能源定價所做的 RPU 假設。希望這是保守的並且會回來，但這實際上與成本無關，而與減速有關。

Well, I want to clear up a point. There's nothing that we're looking at that suggests a 400 to 500 basis point decline or worsening of our OR in the fourth quarter. We don't see that math.

好吧，我想澄清一點。我們沒有看到任何跡象表明我們的 OR 在第四季度下降或惡化 400 至 500 個基點。我們看不到那個數學。

And our core pricing story remains absolutely intact.

我們的核心定價故事絕對完好無損。

Our next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Walter Spracklin 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

Just a quick housekeeping question on the tax rate. You mentioned that it's not changed. Are we in the 23.5%, 24% range. Is that right?

只是一個關於稅率的快速內務管理問題。你提到它沒有改變。我們在 23.5%、24% 的範圍內嗎？那正確嗎？

Yes. That's -- for the time being, that's where the implied guidance is on the overall tax rate. That includes, obviously, the federal rate, which is at 21%, but it also includes a multitude of states, not just Pennsylvania where we operate. That brings it up a little bit higher. And yes, Pennsylvania's rate goes down a little bit, but we still got all the other state tax where we pay.

是的。就目前而言，這是對整體稅率的隱含指導。顯然，這包括 21% 的聯邦稅率，但它還包括許多州，而不僅僅是我們開展業務的賓夕法尼亞州。這使它更高了一點。是的，賓夕法尼亞州的稅率下降了一點，但我們仍然在我們支付的地方繳納了所有其他州的稅。

Got it. Perfect. Okay. And then my second question here is on carryover impacts, whether it's headwinds or tailwinds that would impact OR going into 2023. And one of your peers mentioned they started out with a target for the beginning of the year. Obviously, you weren't able to achieve it due to the headwinds, but indicated that it's off the table for next year due to some of the carryovers. I don't know if Cindy is the best one to ask this, but is there -- is there headwinds to what you would have expected your OR to be, say, the beginning of the year that won't allow you to kind of achieve some of the benefits akin to what other industry peers are seeing? Or is that kind of specific to them? Do you believe that you can see a material improvement in your OR because those headwinds don't exist going into 2023?

知道了。完美的。好的。然後我的第二個問題是關於結轉影響，無論是逆風還是順風都會影響或進入 2023 年。你的一位同行提到他們開始時設定了今年年初的目標。顯然，由於逆風，您無法實現它，但表示由於一些遺留問題，明年無法實現它。我不知道 Cindy 是否是提出這個問題的最佳人選，但是是否存在 - 是否存在您所期望的 OR 的逆風，例如，今年年初不允許您獲得一些類似於其他行業同行所看到的好處？或者是那種特定於他們的？您是否相信您可以看到您的 OR 有實質性的改善，因為這些逆風在 2023 年不存在？

As I noted before, we're going to be more than happy to share our vision for long-term value creation at our Investor Day in about 6 weeks.

正如我之前指出的那樣，我們將非常樂意在大約 6 週後的投資者日分享我們對長期價值創造的願景。

Our next question is coming from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

So Alan, as you just highlight earlier, I thought that was a really important point on the furloughing and decrementals. I think that's probably one of the most talked about discussions on the future of the railroads, it's going to be what happens, can the rails be as variable as they had been. But I just want to visit on -- did I catch you right? Did you say that labor costs were 2x your target? It seems to be a very big step relative to the other rail gaps. And is there any reason for that?

所以艾倫，正如你剛才強調的那樣，我認為這是關於休假和遞減的一個非常重要的觀點。我認為這可能是關於鐵路未來的最受關注的討論之一，將會發生什麼，鐵路能否像以前一樣多變。但我只是想繼續——我沒聽錯嗎？你是說勞動力成本是你的目標的 2 倍嗎？相對於其他鐵路差距，這似乎是一個非常大的進步。有什麼理由嗎？

And then I guess on the -- my follow-up on the TOP|SPG, what's the issue now? As you ramp employees, is it equipment chassis? Is it getting the humps back to speed? What else needs to be done going forward here to finish improving the service?

然後我猜想——我對 TOP|SPG 的後續行動，現在出了什麼問題？當你增加員工時，它是設備底盤嗎？它會讓駝峰恢復速度嗎？在此之前還需要做些什麼來完成改進服務？

Yes. Ken, I'll start on the labor costs. I mean, the PEB recommendations were obviously higher than we expected. We laid out very transparently for you the details of how those increases were allocated, including those retro adjustments, and we advised throughout all that we were accruing in line with historical increases and -- which is what we had on the table with labor prior to the PEB. So the adjustment is really just the math. Go ahead.

是的。肯，我將從人工成本開始。我的意思是，PEB 的建議明顯高於我們的預期。我們非常透明地為您列出了這些增長是如何分配的細節，包括那些追溯調整，並且我們始終建議我們根據歷史增長進行累積，並且 - 這是我們在之前與勞動力一起討論的內容PEB。所以調整實際上只是數學。前進。

Let me talk about the service. We improved our train speed by 20% in the third quarter, and our service metrics are better than what we had projected to the Service Transportation Board earlier this year. Our service metrics and our service product is at a level, as Ed described, that's allowing us to participate in some lucrative spot opportunities that we didn't anticipate. We could participate in a couple of months ago. We made a lot of improvement. What we're allowed to do now because of the health of our network is narrow our focus a little bit more on some specific areas in which we need to continue to improve our service price. That's our focus. It's job priority #1 on Norfolk Southern.

先說服務吧。我們在第三季度將列車速度提高了 20%，我們的服務指標比我們今年早些時候向服務運輸委員會預測的要好。正如 Ed 所描述的，我們的服務指標和我們的服務產品處於一個水平，這使我們能夠參與一些我們沒有預料到的有利可圖的現貨機會。我們可以在幾個月前參加。我們做了很多改進。由於我們網絡的健康狀況，我們現在可以做的是將我們的注意力集中在一些我們需要繼續提高服務價格的特定領域。這是我們的重點。這是 Norfolk Southern 的工作優先事項 #1。

And I would add on the SPG piece, Ken, that it's a consideration, refinement, simplification, all of those types of things. Again, it's a very PSR-oriented to making sure we get asset turns as we need to and be able to create fluidity that not only helps us from a cost perspective, but it's exactly what our customers need. So there's continuing work going on there as well.

我想在 SPG 文章中補充一點，Ken，這是一種考慮、改進、簡化，所有這些類型的事情。同樣，它非常注重 PSR，以確保我們根據需要獲得資產周轉，並能夠創造不僅從成本角度幫助我們的流動性，而且這正是我們客戶所需要的。所以那裡也有持續的工作。

Can I just ask a clarification? Mark, did you mention the headwind on the lost fuel surcharge for the fourth quarter was there? Or was it just we're going to have a headwind? I don't know if you'd put in on that.

我可以要求澄清一下嗎？馬克，你有沒有提到第四季度燃油附加費損失的不利因素？或者只是我們要遇到逆風？我不知道你是否願意參與其中。

Actually, Ken, thanks for the opportunity to clear that up a little bit. That was another thing that's driving the fourth quarter operating ratio in the implied math, too, is fuel surcharge. The net fuel surcharge was actually a benefit here in the third quarter. And based on where fuel prices are going, it spins to become a headwind again just like it was in the first half.

實際上，Ken，感謝有機會澄清一下。在隱含的數學中，推動第四季度運營比率的另一件事是燃油附加費。淨燃油附加費在第三季度實際上是一個好處。根據燃油價格的走勢，它會像上半年一樣再次成為逆風。

I appreciate that. Did you put a level or a number, or just that's going to be...

我很感激。你輸入的是水平還是數字，或者只是……

I did not. I did not. It's going to be -- well, we have to see where the prices are going. We've just seen a dramatic spike just in the past 1.5 weeks, which initially we weren't expecting to see, and we thought that maybe we would not have the headwinds that we're facing. But right now, it's -- fuel has moved up. And because of the lag effect, we'll end up having an OR headwind here in the fourth quarter. It won't catch up until the first quarter.

我沒有。我沒有。它將是——好吧，我們必須看看價格的走向。我們剛剛在過去的 1.5 週內看到了一個戲劇性的飆升，這最初是我們沒有預料到的，我們認為也許我們不會遇到我們面臨的逆風。但現在，它 - 燃料已經上漲。而且由於滯後效應，我們最終將在第四季度在這裡遇到 OR 逆風。它要到第一季度才能趕上。

So again, in periods of a rising fuel, because of the lag, we end up with OR headwinds. When fuel stabilizes and starts to go down, you tend to get fuel tailwinds. So in Q3, we ended up having a reprieve on that and we got some OR help from the fuel surcharge program, but it looks like it's going to spin again to a headwind here in the fourth quarter. Just like we had in the first half.

同樣，在燃料上升的時期，由於滯後，我們最終會遇到 OR 逆風。當燃料穩定並開始下降時，您往往會遇到燃料逆風。所以在第三季度，我們最終得到了緩刑，我們從燃油附加費計劃中獲得了一些或幫助，但看起來它會在第四季度再次逆風旋轉。就像我們上半場一樣。

Our next question is from the line of Ari Rosa with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

So I wanted to start with just a philosophical question. Just maybe you could address how you're thinking about balancing desires for volume growth versus OR improvement. I know for a long time, I think the argument for NS has been, well, we grow -- we're going to outgrow the industry, and therefore, maybe our ORs will lag peers a little bit. Maybe you could just update us how you're thinking about the tension between those two?

所以我想從一個哲學問題開始。也許您可以解決您如何考慮平衡銷量增長與 OR 改進的需求。我知道很長一段時間以來，我認為 NS 的爭論一直是，好吧，我們在成長——我們將超越這個行業，因此，也許我們的 OR 會落後於同行一點點。也許你可以告訴我們你是如何看待這兩者之間的緊張關係的？

And here we are in an environment where you're obviously adding resources in terms of headcount and other things, but you're looking for volume growth to be essentially flat in the fourth quarter. So maybe you could talk about that and the opportunity to maybe get volume over time to kind of meet those higher resource levels.

在這裡，我們所處的環境顯然是在增加員工人數和其他方面的資源，但您希望第四季度的銷量增長基本持平。所以也許你可以談談這個以及隨著時間的推移可能獲得數量以滿足那些更高的資源水平的機會。

Yes. Ari, we firmly believe that service and margin improvement support each other. And frankly, you saw that in the third quarter. The service improved. Our margin improved versus the second quarter.

是的。 Ari，我們堅信服務和利潤率的提高是相互支持的。坦率地說，你在第三季度看到了這一點。服務有所改善。與第二季度相比，我們的利潤率有所提高。

With respect to fourth quarter volumes, just note that normal seasonality would suggest generally about a 5% decline in volume in the fourth quarter relative to the third. So as our service continues to improve, we believe we're going to outperform normal seasonality on our volumes. And longer term, our commitment is to industry competitive margins with above market growth.

關於第四季度的銷量，請注意正常的季節性通常表明第四季度的銷量相對於第三季度下降了 5% 左右。因此，隨著我們的服務不斷改進，我們相信我們的銷量將超過正常的季節性。從長遠來看，我們的承諾是通過高於市場增長的行業競爭利潤率。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just really quickly, Alan, you mentioned that you're getting increased inquiries from customers based on kind of some of these service improvements. I was hoping you could just add some color around where those inquiries are coming in, what's the nature of those inquiries. Again, it's a little difficult to reconcile with the notion of volume growth maybe being a little bit flat or at least as implied by the guide. Just maybe give us some color around the nature of those conversations with customers.

好的。這很有幫助。然後很快，艾倫，你提到基於其中一些服務改進，你收到了越來越多的客戶諮詢。我希望您可以在這些查詢的來源周圍添加一些顏色，這些查詢的性質是什麼。同樣，與銷量增長的概念可能有點持平或至少如指南所暗示的那樣協調起來有點困難。也許可以給我們一些關於與客戶對話的性質的顏色。

Ed, you're talking to our customers every day, as am I, but you're certainly much closer to this.

埃德，你每天都在與我們的客戶交談，我也是，但你肯定更接近這一點。

Yes. Overall sentiment from our customers is that things have improved, and we're continuing to move in the right direction. We're hearing that every day from a range with customers.

是的。我們客戶的總體情緒是情況有所改善，我們將繼續朝著正確的方向前進。我們每天都從客戶那裡聽到這樣的消息。

One thing that we're certain about is as we increase train speed and reduce the amount of dwell, we're going to have more capacity to deliver value to our customers, and we're hearing that from them. I'll use the ag markets as an example on the bulk side where we are seeing customers come to us and come to us with spot opportunities that we probably wouldn't have been able to execute on in prior periods, but we're able to now. And so we're diligently looking at these opportunities, and it really means looking at opportunities where we can be successful and add value. There are several of those on the bulk side, and we'll continue to look for them.

我們可以肯定的一件事是，隨著我們提高列車速度並減少停留時間，我們將有更多的能力為我們的客戶提供價值，我們也從他們那裡聽到了這一點。我將以 ag 市場為例，在散裝方面，我們看到客戶來找我們，並帶著現貨機會來找我們，我們可能無法在之前的時期執行這些機會，但我們能夠到現在。因此，我們正在努力尋找這些機會，這實際上意味著尋找我們可以成功並增加價值的機會。散裝方面有幾個，我們將繼續尋找它們。

Our next question is from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

I was just looking for a bit of clarification on the $88 million retroactive labor accrual and the extent to which it reflects base wage increases versus the proposed bonuses. And to the extent that it's more weighted to bonuses versus the base wage increase, should we then assume that, that means the company was correctly anticipating base wage inflation and, therefore, should have been passing that on as contracts roll? Or how should we think about that accrual?

我只是想了解一下 8800 萬美元的追溯性勞動力應計收入，以及它在多大程度上反映了基本工資增長與擬議獎金的對比。並且在一定程度上，獎金比基本工資增長更重要，那麼我們是否應該假設，這意味著公司正確地預測了基本工資通脹，因此，應該在合同滾動時傳遞它？或者我們應該如何考慮應計費用？

Yes. We didn't provide the split of impact between the bonus and the base wage, Cherilyn, but we can -- let me look at providing that to you offline. But I do think that we are -- the overall impact that we've got from the $88 million that relates to 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022 now becomes something that we have to absorb over time and mitigate with not just pricing, but with productivity and efficiency in the go forward. And that's our goal on how we offset that.

是的。 Cherilyn，我們沒有提供獎金和基本工資之間的影響分配，但我們可以——讓我看看如何離線提供給你。但我確實認為我們是——我們從與 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年上半年相關的 8800 萬美元中獲得的總體影響現在變成了我們必須隨著時間的推移吸收並減輕的影響，而不僅僅是定價，但隨著生產力和效率的提高。這就是我們如何抵消這一點的目標。

The next question is from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Congratulations. A lot of my questions have been answered, so let me just go with one modeling detail question. Debt was relatively flat. Interest expense, up $7 million. Obviously, interest rates arising. Can you give us a sense of your interest rate sensitivity? And let's say, the Fed does an additional 150 basis points here and then slows down. What would be a good way to think about run rate interest expense as we enter 2023?

恭喜。我的很多問題都得到了解答，所以讓我先回答一個建模細節問題。債務相對持平。利息支出增加 700 萬美元。顯然，利率產生了。你能告訴我們你對利率的敏感度嗎？假設美聯儲在這裡額外加息 150 個基點，然後放慢速度。當我們進入 2023 年時，考慮運行利率費用的好方法是什麼？

Well, Jeff, I mean, it will -- look, the weighted average interest rate in our overall debt portfolio today is below current rates. So with every new debt issuance that we have, it will be at higher rates than the average. It will start -- so as old maturities roll off, new ones come on. It's going to -- interest will start to go up a little bit. We're not so worried, frankly, because we do have a portfolio of debt that exceeds $14 billion or so. So I don't think it's going to be a meaningful drag on us going forward. And we haven't really seen the interest rates at levels yet that caused me much concern.

好吧，傑夫，我的意思是，看起來，我們今天整體債務組合的加權平均利率低於當前利率。因此，我們每發行一次新債，利率都會高於平均水平。它將開始——所以隨著舊到期日的結束，新的到期日就會出現。它會——興趣會開始上升一點。坦率地說，我們並不那麼擔心，因為我們的債務組合確實超過 140 億美元左右。所以我認為這不會對我們前進產生重大拖累。我們還沒有真正看到利率達到讓我非常擔心的水平。

Okay. So more a function of new issuance replacing old issuance as opposed to any interest rate sensitivity on future increases.

好的。因此，更多的是新發行取代舊發行的功能，而不是對未來增長的任何利率敏感性。

Correct.

正確的。

We thank you for joining our call, and we look forward to continuing these discussions at our December 6 Investor Day.

感謝您加入我們的電話會議，我們期待在 12 月 6 日的投資者日繼續這些討論。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。