Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Norfolk Southern Corporation Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Luke Nichols, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Nichols, you may now begin.

您好，歡迎來到諾福克南方公司 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興介紹投資者關係高級總監 Luke Nichols。謝謝你，尼科爾斯先生，你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results. Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports, filed with the SEC, for a full discussion of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告，以全面討論我們認為最重要的風險和不確定性。

Our presentation slides are available at nscorp.com in the Investors section along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures used today to comparable GAAP measures. A full transcript and download will be posted after the call.

我們的演示幻燈片可在 nscorp.com 的“投資者”部分獲得，以及今天使用的非 GAAP 指標與可比 GAAP 指標的對賬。完整的成績單和下載將在通話後發布。

Turning to Slide 3. It's now my pleasure to introduce Norfolk Southern's President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan Shaw.

轉到幻燈片 3。現在我很高興介紹 Norfolk Southern 的總裁兼首席執行官 Alan Shaw。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Norfolk Southern's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I am joined today by Cindy Sanborn, Chief Operating Officer; Ed Elkins, Chief Marketing Officer; and Mark George, Chief Financial Officer.

大家，早安。歡迎來到諾福克南方公司 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天，首席運營官 Cindy Sanborn 也加入了我的行列； Ed Elkins，首席營銷官；和首席財務官馬克·喬治。

In the second quarter, we stabilized service levels, expanded our pipeline of conductor trainees and launched the next evolution of our operating plan, TOP|SPG with our signature no surprises approach. Service is not yet where we want it to be, but I am encouraged by our progress and inspired by the commitment and shared vision of our talented team. I am privileged to spend a lot of time in the field with our hard-working craft employees and operations supervisors. I see firsthand and sincerely appreciate their daily dedication to serving our customers.

在第二季度，我們穩定了服務水平，擴大了我們的指揮培訓生管道，並推出了我們的運營計劃的下一個演變，TOP|SPG 採用我們標誌性的無意外方法。服務還不是我們想要的，但我對我們的進步感到鼓舞，並受到我們才華橫溢的團隊的承諾和共同願景的啟發。我很榮幸能在現場與我們勤奮的工藝員工和運營主管共度大量時間。我親眼目睹並真誠地感謝他們每天為客戶服務的奉獻精神。

We are eager to reach an agreement that keeps our people among the highest paid craft workers of any industry and recognizes their essential service to our customers, our company and the U.S. economy.

我們渴望達成一項協議，使我們的員工成為任何行業中收入最高的手工藝工人，並認可他們為我們的客戶、我們的公司和美國經濟提供的基本服務。

Moving to Slide 4. Thanks to the combined efforts of our team. We delivered solid financial performance in the second quarter with record revenue and earnings per share. Revenue increased 16% as a 20% increase in revenue per unit more than offset a 3% volume decline.

轉到幻燈片 4。感謝我們團隊的共同努力。我們在第二季度實現了穩健的財務業績，收入和每股收益創歷史新高。收入增長 16%，因為每單位收入增長 20%，抵消了 3% 的銷量下降。

Expenses grew by 21% year-over-year due primarily to higher fuel prices. Operating ratio was up 260 basis points versus last year's quarterly record. Comparisons were adversely impacted by the absence of a large property sale we called out last year as well as fuel price headwinds. Despite these headwinds, EPS improved by 5% and to $3.45 per share, a second quarter record.

主要由於燃料價格上漲，費用同比增長 21%。與去年的季度記錄相比，營業比率上升了 260 個基點。由於我們去年沒有進行大規模房地產銷售以及燃料價格逆風，這些比較受到了不利影響。儘管存在這些不利因素，但每股收益增長了 5%，達到每股 3.45 美元，創下第二季度的紀錄。

The steps we are taking today to restore service and implement our new TOP|SPG operating plan are making Norfolk Southern a more customer-centric operations-driven organization that will deliver long-term value for our customers and shareholders. Our TOP|SPG operating plan is part of the equation for improving service. We named this iteration, SPG because it creates a platform for consistent service, continuous productivity improvement and smart growth for our customers, Norfolk Southern and our shareholders. There is no doubt we have an enviable value proposition to compete in today's logistics marketplace and where markets are headed.

我們今天為恢復服務和實施新的 TOP|SPG 運營計劃而採取的措施正在使 Norfolk Southern 成為一個更加以客戶為中心的運營驅動型組織，將為我們的客戶和股東創造長期價值。我們的 TOP|SPG 運營計劃是改善服務的一部分。我們將此迭代命名為 SPG，因為它為我們的客戶、Norfolk Southern 和我們的股東創建了一個平台，可實現一致的服務、持續的生產力提高和智能增長。毫無疑問，我們擁有令人羨慕的價值主張，可以在當今的物流市場和市場發展方向上競爭。

At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, I'll share a few insights on how we will unlock that value.

在我們準備好的評論結束時，我將分享一些關於我們將如何釋放該價值的見解。

I'll now turn the discussion to Cindy for an update on operations and a detailed look at how our company is aligned around restoring service and creating a safe, efficient and reliable product that meets our customers' needs and supports their growth. Cindy?

我現在將討論轉向 Cindy，以獲取有關運營的最新信息，並詳細了解我們公司如何圍繞恢復服務和創造安全、高效和可靠的產品來滿足我們客戶的需求並支持他們的發展。辛迪？

Thank you, Alan, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 6. In the second quarter, our team continued to face a challenging operational environment as we work to stabilize service levels, drive productivity gains and increase our T&E workforce. Crew starts were down 3% in the quarter and volumes also down 3% and flat gross ton miles.

謝謝你，艾倫，大家早上好。轉到幻燈片 6。在第二季度，我們的團隊繼續面臨充滿挑戰的運營環境，因為我們努力穩定服務水平、提高生產力並增加我們的 T&E 勞動力。本季度船員開工率下降了 3%，貨運量也下降了 3%，總噸英里數持平。

Similar to what I discussed last quarter, we continue to make gains in crew productivity. However, we would have preferred to run additional crew starts that were limited by staffing challenges. As we promote more of the conductor trainees currently in our pipeline, we will see additional highly productive crew starts that will support more volume and further increases to the record train size we have produced this year.

與我上個季度討論的類似，我們繼續提高船員的生產力。但是，我們更願意進行額外的機組人員啟動，但受人員配備挑戰的限制。隨著我們提拔更多目前在我們的管道中的列車員，我們將看到更多高產的船員開始，這將支持更多的數量，並進一步增加我們今年生產的創紀錄的列車規模。

Despite the ongoing decision to keep a portion of our surge locomotive fleet active to promote service recovery, we produced another all-time record for fuel efficiency, driven by our multipronged strategy to reduce consumption. This strategy includes the DC to AC conversion program, data-driven solutions to idle reduction and small but powerful investments in friction modification technology, just to name a few components. We expect to drive even better results as we execute on that strategy and enhance the fluidity of our network.

儘管我們一直在決定保持我們的部分調壓機車機隊保持活躍以促進服務恢復，但在我們減少消耗的多管齊下戰略的推動下，我們創造了另一個燃料效率的歷史記錄。該策略包括 DC 到 AC 轉換程序、用於減少怠速的數據驅動解決方案以及對摩擦修改技術的小而強大的投資，僅舉幾例。我們希望在執行該戰略並增強我們網絡的流動性時取得更好的結果。

Moving on to Slide 7. Train speed and terminal dwell remained challenged in the quarter, but we are really encouraged by the improvements we're seeing here in July. We are pulling every lever to restore service levels and delivering for our customers as our top priority. We have a long way to go, and our workforce is dedicated to getting the job done. I'm going to speak over the next few slides about the plan for accomplishing this.

繼續幻燈片 7。列車速度和終點站停留在本季度仍然面臨挑戰，但我們對 7 月份在這裡看到的改進感到非常鼓舞。我們正在竭盡全力恢復服務水平並為我們的客戶提供服務作為我們的首要任務。我們還有很長的路要走，我們的員工致力於完成工作。在接下來的幾張幻燈片中，我將討論實現這一目標的計劃。

Turning to Slide 8, which is an update on our T&E staffing progress. We're maintaining a very strong pipeline of conductor trainees. And even more encouraging, as you can see that in July, we're really making progress on getting those employees qualified more than offsetting ongoing attrition. And the impact on our network is being felt.

轉到幻燈片 8，這是我們 T&E 人員配備進度的更新。我們正在維持一個非常強大的指揮實習生管道。更令人鼓舞的是，正如您在 7 月份看到的那樣，我們確實在讓這些員工獲得資格方面取得了進展，而不是抵消了持續的人員流失。並且正在感受到對我們網絡的影響。

We are continuing to start classes weekly and expect this momentum to continue. I will note that the labor market is still very challenging, particularly in certain locations. We're taking advantage of every option to get folks where we need them, including go teams, transfers, sign-on and attendance bonuses, retirement deferral and referral incentives and more.

我們將繼續每週開課，並希望這種勢頭繼續下去。我會注意到勞動力市場仍然非常具有挑戰性，特別是在某些地方。我們正在利用各種選項將人們帶到我們需要他們的地方，包括去團隊、轉會、簽到和出勤獎金、退休延期和推薦獎勵等等。

We're also examining how we can adjust our operation to best align resources with demand. An example of this is that our 2 of our major terminals, Macon and Bellevue, recall that both of these former hump yards were converted to flat switching in 2020. Switching demand has increased in both locations since that time, and we have begun the process of resuming conventional hump operations at both facilities to provide the capacity we need to most expeditiously and efficiently serve our customers with negligible upstart our ongoing costs.

我們還在研究如何調整我們的運營以最好地使資源與需求保持一致。這方面的一個例子是，我們的兩個主要碼頭 Macon 和 Bellevue 回憶說，這兩個以前的駝峰場都在 2020 年被轉換為平轉。從那時起，這兩個地點的轉換需求都有所增加，我們已經開始了這個過程在這兩個設施中恢復傳統的駝峰操作，以提供我們需要的能力，以最迅速和最有效的方式為我們的客戶服務，而我們的持續成本可以忽略不計。

Having the ability to return to humping operations as demand dictates is an example of resiliency we now have in our network and a lever we can pull to improve service. We are excited about the talented individuals joining us to help move the economy, and we are confident we will continue to make progress on our staffing priorities.

有能力根據需求恢復駝峰式運營，這是我們現在在我們的網絡中擁有的彈性的一個例子，也是我們可以用來改善服務的槓桿。我們很高興有才華橫溢的人加入我們以幫助推動經濟發展，我們相信我們將繼續在我們的人員配置優先事項上取得進展。

On Slide 9, I am very happy with the progress we've made on our safety initiatives and translating that to fewer injuries and train accidents. Especially with large numbers of new employees starting out in the field, this reinforces that all of our employees, tenured and new alike are laser-focused on running a safe operation, providing a critical foundation for the future.

在幻燈片 9 上，我對我們在安全舉措方面取得的進展感到非常高興，並將其轉化為更少的傷害和火車事故。尤其是隨著大量新員工在該領域開始工作，這強化了我們所有的員工，無論是終身員工還是新員工，都非常關注安全運營，為未來奠定了重要基礎。

Now moving to Slide 10. I'll talk about the progress we've made with rolling out the latest evolution of our operating plan, TOP|SPG. As a reminder, TOP is in an acronym building on the legacy of Thoroughbred Operating Plans. And as Alan noted earlier, SPG signifies the equal prominence of the 3 pillars: service, productivity and growth.

現在轉到幻燈片 10。我將談談我們在推出運營計劃的最新演變 TOP|SPG 方面取得的進展。提醒一下，TOP 是在 Thoroughbred 運營計劃遺產的基礎上建立的首字母縮略詞。正如 Alan 之前指出的，SPG 意味著三大支柱的同等重要性：服務、生產力和增長。

Late in the second quarter, we launched the plan, which was focused on creating more balance and executability within our network. We looked at how our business rate flows and train composition have changed over the last few years and then couple that with a deep dive on how each of our terminals and routes can best handle the business. We took a fresh approach to balancing the number of crews and locomotives flowing across our core routes.

在第二季度末，我們啟動了該計劃，重點是在我們的網絡中創造更多的平衡和可執行性。我們研究了過去幾年我們的業務費率流動和列車構成如何變化，然後深入研究我們的每個航站樓和路線如何最好地處理業務。我們採取了一種全新的方法來平衡流經我們核心路線的機組人員和機車的數量。

I've spoken before about the benefits of distributed power locomotives on longer trains, and as we're creating longer trains, when we rebuilt the plan for when and where we apply distributed power. We looked at prior and prospective train consolidations and weighed what it would take to continue launching and landing longer trains both from a time and resource perspective and made holistic decisions about what is best for service, productivity and growth.

我之前談過分佈式電力機車在更長的列車上的好處，當我們正在製造更長的列車時，當我們重新制定計劃時，我們何時何地應用分佈式電力。我們查看了之前和未來的列車整合，並從時間和資源的角度權衡了繼續發射和降落更長的列車需要什麼，並就什麼最有利於服務、生產力和增長做出了整體決策。

As we go forward, we will increase the service frequency in several of our core intermodal markets while simplifying the role of each terminal, particularly where we have more than 1 terminal in each market. This will allow us to drive even more value from our intermodal franchise and will promote executability and growth. Our bulk strategy has a long-term focus.

隨著我們的前進，我們將增加幾個核心多式聯運市場的服務頻率，同時簡化每個碼頭的角色，特別是在我們在每個市場擁有超過 1 個碼頭的情況下。這將使我們能夠從我們的多式聯運特許經營中獲得更多價值，並將促進可執行性和增長。我們的批量戰略有一個長期的重點。

In recent years, we've made solid progress on train consolidations and to a lesser degree, blending with other traffic types. Now we're putting added emphasis on identifying how we can take the remaining unit train network and add an incremental 10, 20 or 30 cars to each train.

近年來，我們在列車整合方面取得了紮實的進展，並在較小程度上與其他交通類型相融合。現在我們更加重視確定如何利用剩餘的單元列車網絡並為每列列車增加 10、20 或 30 節車廂。

Moving to Slide 11 to discuss a couple of metrics that indicate the early progress we're seeing. First, our arrival train performance has seen substantial improvements here in July. With TOP|SPG we adjusted 90% of our train schedules to meet the service and executability standards I described on the previous slide, and this improvement is very encouraging. As I showed on the network update, our velocity has been improving in July, and this train performance trend reinforces that velocity is translating into trains hitting their slots at an increasing rate.

轉到幻燈片 11，討論一些表明我們看到的早期進展的指標。首先，我們的到達列車性能在 7 月份有了顯著改善。通過 TOP|SPG，我們調整了 90% 的列車時刻表，以滿足我在上一張幻燈片中描述的服務和可執行性標準，這種改進非常令人鼓舞。正如我在網絡更新中所展示的那樣，我們的速度在 7 月份一直在提高，這種列車性能趨勢強化了速度正在轉化為列車以越來越高的速度到達它們的位置。

One of the several reasons for this is the strong increase in the number of distributed powertrains we run each day. Team built a solid plan and is now executing it, and this is a component that will directly impact each aspect of SPG as DP trains run smoother, creating service resiliency. They are also more fuel-efficient and shorter trains driving productivity, and they give us a capacity dividend driving growth.

造成這種情況的幾個原因之一是我們每天運行的分佈式動力系統數量的大幅增加。團隊制定了一個可靠的計劃，現在正在執行它，這是一個直接影響 SPG 各個方面的組件，因為 DP 列車運行更順暢，創造了服務彈性。它們的燃油效率更高，列車更短，從而提高了生產力，並為我們提供了推動增長的運力紅利。

We have a long way to go to fully restoring service. These are just a few examples of where we are and further improvements will continue to be driven by 3 primary functions: staffing initiatives paying off; the success of top SPG; and a solid execution by our field workforce.

要完全恢復服務，我們還有很長的路要走。這些只是我們所處位置的幾個例子，進一步的改進將繼續由 3 個主要功能推動：人員配備計劃得到回報；頂級SPG的成功；以及我們現場工作人員的紮實執行力。

Thank you, and I will now turn it over to Ed.

謝謝，我現在把它交給 Ed。

Thanks, Cindy, and good morning, everybody. Let's go to Slide 13. Our results for the quarter reflect strong revenue growth amidst still recovering volume from network challenges. We achieved record revenue for the quarter of $3.3 billion. That's up 16% year-over-year on higher revenue from fuel surcharge and price improvement.

謝謝，Cindy，大家早上好。讓我們看一下幻燈片 13。我們本季度的業績反映了強勁的收入增長，而網絡挑戰的銷量仍在恢復。我們在本季度實現了創紀錄的 33 億美元收入。由於燃油附加費和價格改善帶來的收入增加，同比增長 16%。

Revenue per unit was also a record and revenue per unit, excluding fuel, saw a double-digit increase from the same period last year. This revenue growth more than offset a 3% decline in overall volume, resulting from service disruptions. Within merchandise, overall volume was down slightly as declines in steel and construction-related shipments from strained network fluidity were partially offset by gains in sand, driven by increased drilling activity in response to rising demand for natural gas, also helping to offset those declines with notable growth in our grain shipments due to rising export demand. Merchandise revenue and revenue per unit were records for the quarter on higher revenue from fuel surcharge and price gains.

單位收入也是創紀錄的，不包括燃料在內的單位收入比去年同期增長了兩位數。這一收入增長抵消了因服務中斷導致的總銷量下降 3% 的影響。在商品方面，整體銷量略有下降，原因是鋼鐵和建築相關出貨量因網絡流動性緊張而下降，部分被沙子的增長所抵消，這是由於天然氣需求增加而增加的鑽井活動推動的，這也有助於抵消這些下降由於出口需求增加，我們的糧食出貨量顯著增長。由於燃油附加費和價格上漲帶來的收入增加，該季度的商品收入和單位收入創下了記錄。

Now turning to intermodal. Revenue, revenue per unit and revenue per unit excluding fuel were all up double digits in the second quarter with higher fuel surcharge price gains and higher revenue from storage fees more than offsetting the impact of those volume declines. International intermodal shipments were markedly down year-over-year, driven largely by a shift in our customer base away from inland point intermodal or IPI, in response to ongoing supply chain challenges. Declines in international intermodal were partially offset by modest improvement in domestic shipments year-over-year due to sustained consumer demand.

現在轉向多式聯運。第二季度的收入、單位收入和不包括燃料的單位收入均增長了兩位數，燃料附加費價格上漲和倉儲費收入增加抵消了這些銷量下降的影響。國際多式聯運出貨量同比顯著下降，主要是由於我們的客戶群從內陸點多式聯運或 IPI 轉移，以應對持續的供應鏈挑戰。由於消費者需求持續，國內貨運量同比略有改善，部分抵消了國際多式聯運的下降。

Revenue growth was strongest in our coal business unit this quarter with total revenue, revenue per unit and revenue per unit excluding fuel, all increasing well north of 30% year-over-year in the second quarter. This growth was propelled by price gains, particularly in our export coal markets. Coal volume in the second quarter was negatively impacted by limited supply and facility closures.

本季度我們的煤炭業務部門的收入增長最為強勁，總收入、單位收入和不包括燃料的單位收入在第二季度均同比增長 30% 以上。這種增長是由價格上漲推動的，特別是在我們的出口煤炭市場。第二季度的煤炭量受到供應有限和設施關閉的負面影響。

Overall, our performance for the quarter reflects an improving revenue portfolio that will serve as a platform for long-term sustainable revenue growth into the future.

總體而言，我們本季度的業績反映了收入組合的改善，這將成為未來長期可持續收入增長的平台。

Moving to our outlook on Slide 14. We're cautiously optimistic that the demand environment will remain strong through the end of 2022, providing opportunities for us to expand our volume and revenue base as fluidity is restored to the network. Despite recession risks amid record inflation and aggressive monetary policy, most economists are still forecasting GDP growth above 1% for both the third and the fourth quarter of 2022.

轉向我們對幻燈片 14 的展望。我們謹慎樂觀地認為，到 2022 年底，需求環境將保持強勁，隨著網絡的流動性恢復，我們有機會擴大我們的數量和收入基礎。儘管在創紀錄的通脹和激進的貨幣政策中存在經濟衰退風險，但大多數經濟學家仍預測 2022 年第三和第四季度的 GDP 增長率均高於 1%。

In addition, we are beginning to see gas prices moderate nationally and unemployment remains very low, both of which bode well for consumption, which drives many of our markets. Specific to our merchandise segment, we expect volume strength in the second half to be led by our automotive markets where U.S. light vehicle production is currently forecasted to be up 18% over the production levels experienced in the last 6 months of 2021.

此外，我們開始看到全國范圍內的天然氣價格放緩，失業率仍然很低，這兩者都預示著消費，這推動了我們的許多市場。具體到我們的商品部門，我們預計下半年的銷量增長將由我們的汽車市場引領，目前預計美國輕型汽車產量將比 2021 年最後 6 個月的產量水平增長 18%。

Looking at commodity prices, we see mixed signals for many of our markets, but overall prices remain elevated from those pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing activity has been a tailwind throughout 2022. However, the outlook is less certain for the remainder of the year.

從商品價格來看，我們看到許多市場的信號好壞參半，但總體價格仍高於大流行前的水平。整個 2022 年，製造業活動一直是順風順水。但是，今年剩餘時間的前景不太確定。

Lastly, we anticipate overall year-over-year improvements in most of our merchandise markets as our service levels recover. Within intermodal, we expect sequential volume improvement in both our domestic and international lines of business in the second half of 2022 as demand remains strong and service improvements will allow for greater throughput on our network. Backlog demand for container movements will provide opportunities for growth in our domestic franchise.

最後，隨著服務水平的恢復，我們預計大部分商品市場的整體同比都會有所改善。在多式聯運方面，我們預計 2022 年下半年我們的國內和國際業務線的運量將連續增長，因為需求依然強勁，服務改進將使我們的網絡吞吐量更大。集裝箱運輸的積壓需求將為我們的國內特許經營權提供增長機會。

In addition, new opportunities for domestic volume growth exists in the truck and logistics market, and we're laser-focused on driving highway to rail conversions to expand our market share. With respect to our international lines of business, increasing import activity is providing growth opportunities, although lower IPI is a limiting factor. We're also keeping a close eye on truck pricing as rates have fallen, albeit from historically very high levels.

此外，卡車和物流市場存在新的國內銷量增長機會，我們專注於推動公路到鐵路的轉換以擴大我們的市場份額。就我們的國際業務而言，增加進口活動正在提供增長機會，儘管較低的 IPI 是一個限制因素。我們也在密切關注卡車定價，因為費率已經下降，儘管從歷史上非常高的水平開始。

Finally, our outlook for coal is positive for the second half of the year with growth in our utility and export markets driven by energy demand. Recent declines in export met coal prices suggest we're not likely to realize the same upside potential in RPU that we achieved in the second quarter. Market conditions support year-over-year volume growth in these markets with upside potential driven by coal supply and network fluidity.

最後，隨著能源需求推動公用事業和出口市場的增長，我們對煤炭的下半年前景看好。最近出口與煤炭價格的下降表明我們不太可能實現與第二季度相同的 RPU 上漲潛力。市場狀況支持這些市場的銷量同比增長，在煤炭供應和網絡流動性的推動下具有上行潛力。

While we recognize that uncertainty persists in the macroeconomic environment, we continue to see opportunities for volume growth in the markets that we serve. As part of our execution of our TOP|SPG operating plan, we are committed to capturing these opportunities, expanding our business by delivering the quality service that our customers need to thrive.

雖然我們認識到宏觀經濟環境中仍然存在不確定性，但我們繼續看到我們所服務的市場的銷量增長機會。作為我們執行 TOP|SPG 運營計劃的一部分，我們致力於抓住這些機會，通過提供客戶茁壯成長所需的優質服務來擴展我們的業務。

I'll now turn it over to Mark for an update on our financial results.

我現在將把它交給馬克，以了解我們財務業績的最新情況。

Thank you, Ed. As Alan noted, our EPS grew $0.17 or 5% in the quarter, while the operating ratio contracted 260 basis points. On Slide 16, we reconcile some of the drivers for both of those changes. Recall the $55 million discrete property sale in Q2 of 2021 that impacted our OR by 200 basis points. Also in Q2 last year, there was a state tax law change that impacted EPS by $0.09 and had a 220 basis point favorable impact on last year's Q2 effective tax rate.

謝謝你，埃德。正如艾倫指出的那樣，我們的每股收益在本季度增長了 0.17 美元或 5%，而營業比率則收縮了 260 個基點。在幻燈片 16 上，我們協調了這兩項更改的一些驅動因素。回想一下 2021 年第二季度 5500 萬美元的離散房地產銷售，這對我們的 OR 影響了 200 個基點。同樣在去年第二季度，州稅法的變化對每股收益產生了 0.09 美元的影響，並對去年第二季度的有效稅率產生了 220 個基點的有利影響。

This year, we have some outsized impacts and claims related to accrual adjustments, but also an accrual related to a legal case. All totaling $16 million, and that creates a 50 basis point headwind on our operating ratio and a $0.05 drag on EPS. That leaves a modest 10 basis point increase in core OR that was heavily impacted by 140 basis points of headwind from fuel.

今年，我們有一些與應計調整相關的巨大影響和索賠，但也有與法律案件相關的應計。總計 1600 萬美元，這對我們的運營比率造成了 50 個基點的逆風，並對每股收益造成了 0.05 美元的拖累。這使得核心 OR 適度增加了 10 個基點，這受到燃料逆風 140 個基點的嚴重影響。

Shifting to the overall reported highlights on Slide 17. As Ed discussed, revenues grew 16% despite the 3% volume decline, thanks to strong RPU again this quarter. Operating expenses were up 21%, driven in large part by fuel, operating income was up 9%, but net income was flat due to tax rate compares and nonoperating headwinds from company-owned life insurance investments. Despite the flat net income, EPS was up 5% from the lower share count.

轉向幻燈片 17 上報告的整體亮點。正如 Ed 所討論的，儘管銷量下降了 3%，但收入增長了 16%，這要歸功於本季度再次強勁的 RPU。運營費用增長 21%，主要受燃料驅動，運營收入增長 9%，但由於稅率比較和公司擁有的人壽保險投資的非運營逆風，淨收入持平。儘管淨收入持平，但每股收益比較低的股票數量增長了 5%。

Drilling into the operating expense components on Slide 18, nearly 2/3 of the increase in operating expense is from higher fuel costs. Increase of material and other of $75 million is affected by the $55 million property gain we called out last year and the $16 million of items that I spoke about earlier. Purchased services and rents are impacted by both inflation and our current service situation. The slower network speed is a critical driver impacting the higher equipment rents, while purchased services captures higher rates for our third-party lift contractors as well as our IT contractors.

深入研究幻燈片 18 上的運營費用部分，運營費用增加的近 2/3 來自更高的燃料成本。材料和其他 7500 萬美元的增加受到我們去年提出的 5500 萬美元財產收益和我之前談到的 1600 萬美元項目的影響。購買的服務和租金受到通貨膨脹和我們當前服務狀況的影響。較慢的網絡速度是影響更高設備租金的關鍵驅動因素，而購買的服務為我們的第三方電梯承包商以及我們的 IT 承包商帶來了更高的費率。

Compensation and benefits is a tailwind with lower incentive accruals, offsetting the cost of trainees as well as general wage inflation. As you can imagine, the current labor negotiations are likely to play out here in the second half and may result in incremental headwinds to comp and benefits that we are unable to estimate at this time.

薪酬和福利是應計獎勵較低的順風，抵消了受訓人員的成本以及總體工資上漲。您可以想像，目前的勞資談判很可能會在下半年在這裡展開，並可能導致我們目前無法估計的薪酬和收益增加逆風。

Shifting to the P&L below operating income on Slide 19. Other income is actually an expense in the quarter of $14 million, driven by losses on our company-owned life insurance investments.

在幻燈片 19 上轉向低於營業收入的損益表。其他收入實際上是本季度 1400 萬美元的支出，這是由於我們公司擁有的人壽保險投資的損失。

I know this line item is difficult to estimate and model. So let me provide some clarity to help you, at least directionally. This account is a collection of nonoperating income and expense items that typically nets to about $15 million of income per quarter. On top of this, we have returns on our company-owned life insurance investments. A portion of this asset, roughly $525 million is invested in a traditional blend of equities and fixed income, and we mark to market each quarter.

我知道這個項目很難估計和建模。因此，讓我提供一些明確的說明來幫助您，至少是在方向上。該帳戶是非營業收入和費用項目的集合，通常每季度淨收入約為 1500 萬美元。最重要的是，我們擁有公司擁有的人壽保險投資的回報。該資產的一部分（大約 5.25 億美元）投資於傳統的股票和固定收益組合，我們每個季度都按市場定價。

These are noncash gains or losses. And it's important to note that neither the gains nor losses from these investments are subject to income tax. As such, the effective tax rate in this quarter was a bit higher than usual at 24.7%. While net income was exactly flat, earnings per share increased 5% due to the accumulation of our share repurchases in the past year.

這些是非現金收益或損失。重要的是要注意，這些投資的收益或損失都不需要繳納所得稅。因此，本季度的有效稅率為 24.7%，略高於往常。雖然淨收入完全持平，但由於我們過去一年股票回購的積累，每股收益增長了 5%。

Going back to income tax for a moment, I would also like to highlight that Pennsylvania enacted legislation in July to reduce their state tax rate. And the accounting for that change will have a roughly $135 million onetime noncash favorable adjustment to income tax expense in the third quarter.

暫時回到所得稅，我還想強調賓夕法尼亞州在 7 月頒布了降低州稅率的立法。考慮到這一變化，第三季度所得稅費用的一次性非現金優惠調整約為 1.35 億美元。

Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 20. We've generated nearly $1.2 billion in free cash flow through 6 months with property additions trending higher than last year, with strong progress being made on both our rail replacement program, and our DC to AC locomotive conversion program, where, as Cindy touched upon, we gain operational benefits as well as improved fuel efficiency. Incremental inflation is also having an impact on property additions. So I would expect CapEx to be at the high end of our $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion guidance range. Shareholder distributions are up and you'll observe here the 19% higher dividend payments through 6 months on top of continued strong share repurchase activity.

現在轉向幻燈片 20 上的自由現金流。在過去的 6 個月中，我們產生了近 12 億美元的自由現金流，房地產增加的趨勢高於去年，我們的鐵路更換計劃和我們的 DC 到 AC 都取得了顯著進展機車改裝計劃，正如 Cindy 所說，我們在該計劃中獲得了運營優勢並提高了燃油效率。增量通貨膨脹也對房地產增加產生影響。因此，我預計資本支出將處於我們 18 億美元至 19 億美元指導範圍的高端。股東分配增加了，您將在這裡看到，在持續強勁的股票回購活動的基礎上，6 個月的股息支付增加了 19%。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Alan.

有了這個，我會把它還給艾倫。

Thank you, Mark. I'll conclude with an update on our outlook for the year and brief thoughts on our strategy for long-term value creation. You'll see on Slide 21, our confidence in the revenue outlook has improved the 12% plus year-over-year growth. Underpinning the improved revenue outlook, a strong first half performance, continued strength in fuel surcharge revenues and better sequential volumes associated with service improvement in the back half of 2022.

謝謝你，馬克。最後，我將介紹我們今年的展望，並簡要介紹我們的長期價值創造戰略。您將在幻燈片 21 上看到，我們對收入前景的信心提高了 12% 以上的同比增長。支撐收入前景改善、上半年業績強勁、燃油附加費收入持續強勁以及與 2022 年下半年服務改進相關的連續銷量增加。

Our first half operating ratio was the result of a delayed service recovery and elevated fuel prices. These headwinds will translate into a deterioration in full year operating ratio. Although we expect the back half OR to improve from the first half as our service recovery ramps, allowing us to absorb more volume and reduce costs associated with our service challenges. As Mark mentioned, we do not know if there will be any incremental costs recorded in 2022 associated with a resolution in our labor negotiations.

我們上半年的運營率是服務恢復延遲和燃油價格上漲的結果。這些不利因素將轉化為全年運營比率的惡化。儘管我們預計隨著服務恢復的增加，後半部分的 OR 會比上半年有所改善，這使我們能夠吸收更多的業務量並降低與服務挑戰相關的成本。正如馬克所提到的，我們不知道 2022 年是否會記錄與我們的勞資談判決議相關的任何增量成本。

Turning to Slide 22. Although our focus today is on restoring service in the short term, our vision extends much further. As I complete my first 100 days as CEO, I'd like to share some insights on our future. The work we are doing now to improve service is only the beginning.

轉到幻燈片 22。雖然我們今天的重點是在短期內恢復服務，但我們的願景會更進一步。在我完成作為 CEO 的前 100 天之後，我想分享一些關於我們未來的見解。我們現在為改善服務所做的工作僅僅是個開始。

We're going to build long-term resiliency into our network, creating sustainable value for our customers. Norfolk Southern has a franchise that is built for growth, being customer-centric and operations-driven, propels Norfolk Southern to a service organization that will compete and win on operational excellence, leveraging the strengths of our powerful network to achieve above-market growth. Our value proposition starts with the investments we've made over decades to build a robust network that faces the fastest-growing segments of the U.S. economy.

我們將在我們的網絡中建立長期的彈性，為我們的客戶創造可持續的價值。 Norfolk Southern 擁有專為增長而建立的特許經營權，以客戶為中心和運營驅動，推動 Norfolk Southern 成為一個服務組織，將在卓越運營方面競爭並取勝，利用我們強大網絡的優勢實現高於市場的增長。我們的價值主張始於我們數十年來為建立一個面向美國經濟增長最快部分的強大網絡所做的投資。

Our markets extend globally through our strong working relationships with ports all along the East Coast, The Great Lakes and the Gulf of Mexico. We have cultivated more than 250 short line partnerships, the most of any Class 1 railroad, extending the reach of our network even further and creating even more options for our customers. We have long-standing relationships with a desirable portfolio of valued customers, reflecting a diversity as broad as the U.S. economy.

我們的市場通過我們與東海岸、五大湖和墨西哥灣沿岸港口的牢固合作關係擴展到全球。我們已經建立了 250 多個短線合作夥伴關係，是所有 1 類鐵路中最多的，進一步擴展了我們網絡的覆蓋範圍，並為我們的客戶創造了更多選擇。我們與理想的尊貴客戶組合建立了長期合作關係，反映了與美國經濟一樣廣泛的多樣性。

Our automotive, metals, agriculture and consumer products markets are enduring strengths, and our unparalleled intermodal franchise will be an increasing driver of long-term growth. Our best-in-class channel partners and industry-leading industrial development team position us well to capitalize on the growth of e-commerce and the acceleration of onshore as we move Norfolk Southern forward. Leveraging the sustainability advantage of our service product will give us another compelling selling point as more shippers prioritize Scope 3 emissions reduction in the years ahead.

我們的汽車、金屬、農業和消費品市場具有持久的優勢，我們無與倫比的多式聯運專營權將成為長期增長的日益增長的驅動力。我們一流的渠道合作夥伴和行業領先的工業發展團隊使我們能夠很好地利用電子商務的增長和在陸上的加速推動諾福克南方前進。隨著越來越多的托運人在未來幾年優先考慮範圍三減排，利用我們服務產品的可持續性優勢將為我們提供另一個引人注目的賣點。

We'll keep driving forward with industry-leading technologies, enhancing our productivity and efficiency and creating a best-in-class consumer-oriented experience that makes it easier for customers to do business with Norfolk Southern. Consistent, convenient, cost-effective service will enable shippers to build their supply chains around the inherent advantages of our network. We will deliver the simplicity of truck with the efficiency of rail.

我們將繼續以行業領先的技術向前發展，提高我們的生產力和效率，並創造一流的以消費者為導向的體驗，讓客戶更容易與 Norfolk Southern 開展業務。一致、方便、具有成本效益的服務將使托運人能夠圍繞我們網絡的固有優勢建立他們的供應鏈。我們將以鐵路的效率提供卡車的簡單性。

This is how we will achieve our vision of a customer-centric, operations-driven organization and compete successfully in the $800 billion plus truck and logistics market.

這就是我們將如何實現以客戶為中心、以運營為驅動的組織的願景，並在超過 8000 億美元的卡車和物流市場上成功競爭。

When I talk to my colleagues throughout Norfolk Southern, from our headquarters to our rail yards, I am energized. Our people are passionate about serving our customers and proud of the essential role we play in moving the American economy. Our team is the reason we will be successful.

當我與整個諾福克南方的同事交談時，從我們的總部到我們的鐵路站場，我都充滿活力。我們的員工熱衷於為客戶服務，並為我們在推動美國經濟中發揮的重要作用感到自豪。我們的團隊是我們成功的原因。

We are building a winning culture with innovation as a core competency where people confidently bring forward their best ideas, continuously develop their skills and feel valued for their contributions. We look forward to sharing more about our strategy for long-term shareholder value creation in the months ahead.

我們正在建立一種以創新為核心競爭力的製勝文化，人們自信地提出他們最好的想法，不斷發展他們的技能，並因為他們的貢獻而感到被重視。我們期待在未來幾個月分享更多關於我們為長期股東創造價值的戰略。

We will now open the call to questions. Operator?

我們現在將打開問題電話。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will be coming from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Sort of in thinking about your look ahead to sort of the second half and the sequential improvement. Can you maybe discuss in your mind what the most critical factor is to getting that service up and in turn, volumes, is it adding more heads? Is it the new TOP|SPG plan, simply easier comps? Maybe just give some color around the critical factors as you would rank them.

有點像是在考慮你對下半場和後續改進的展望。您能否在腦海中討論一下獲得該服務最關鍵的因素是什麼，反過來，數量，它是否增加了更多的人頭？是新的 TOP|SPG 計劃，更簡單的比賽嗎？也許只是給關鍵因素一些顏色，就像你對它們進行排名一樣。

Jordan. The critical factors are already in play. We've ramped up our headcount, and we continue to have a very robust pipeline of conductor trainees. We've got close to 900 as of this morning. And we've implemented a new operating plan, which is already providing some benefit for us and our customers in terms of improved fluidity and service to our customers.

約旦。關鍵因素已經在起作用。我們增加了員工人數，並且我們繼續擁有非常強大的指揮培訓生管道。截至今天早上，我們已經接近 900 人。我們已經實施了一項新的運營計劃，該計劃已經為我們和我們的客戶在改善流動性和為客戶提供服務方面帶來了一些好處。

And so as we continue to add headcount, implement our plan, we are very confident about the ability to improve service, which will allow us to accept more volume and enhance our productivity, driving OR gains.

因此，隨著我們繼續增加員工人數，實施我們的計劃，我們對改善服務的能力非常有信心，這將使我們能夠接受更多的數量並提高我們的生產力，從而推動 OR 收益。

The next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Maybe just a follow-up on the service. We've seen the improvements in first/final mile [tripline] compliance, but they're coming off of really low levels. Is that improvement, that rate of change? Is that enough to really see substantial volume recovery or do you think you need to hit a certain level to start to bring volume back sustainably onto the network?

也許只是對服務的跟進。我們已經看到第一/最後一英里 [三線] 合規性的改進，但它們的水平非常低。是那種改善，那種變化率嗎？這是否足以真正看到大量的容量恢復，或者您是否認為您需要達到一定水平才能開始將容量可持續地帶回網絡？

And then just a quick clarification. For Mark, can you talk about gain on sale in the quarter? It looks like it was about $31 million. I wondered to see if that was right and what your expectations are for the rest of the year?

然後只是一個快速的澄清。對於馬克，你能談談本季度的銷售收益嗎？看起來大約是3100萬美元。我想知道這是否正確，您對今年剩餘時間的期望是什麼？

Cindy, would you talk about what you're seeing with service, please?

辛迪，請您談談您對服務的看法？

Yes. So it's a great question, Brian. And specifically to our measure around first mile/last mile. It's a very rigorous measure and we put that in place very specifically to make sure that we were understanding what the customer is feeling. And we've had it in place for a while now, probably 2 years and we look back to see where service was we had a really good level in 2019. And so that's what we're aiming towards.

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題，布賴恩。特別是我們測量的第一英里/最後一英里。這是一項非常嚴格的措施，我們非常具體地實施了這一措施，以確保我們了解客戶的感受。而且我們已經實施了一段時間，可能是 2 年，我們回顧一下，我們在 2019 年的服務水平非常好。這就是我們的目標。

And while the number on the page is percentage-wise, challenging. It's a measure that we hold ourselves to real high accountability with. And I think Ed can talk a little bit about how the customer feels and how they see the measure?

雖然頁面上的數字是按百分比計算的，但具有挑戰性。這是我們要求自己承擔真正高度責任的一項措施。我認為 Ed 可以談談客戶的感受以及他們如何看待該措施？

Sure. And thank you, Cindy. The first thing I would say is our customers helped us develop our metrics and our targets here. Our customers want to do more business with us and they're starting to see some early green shoots here in terms of service improvement, and we fully expect that to continue throughout the year.

當然。謝謝你，辛迪。我要說的第一件事是我們的客戶幫助我們在這裡制定指標和目標。我們的客戶希望與我們開展更多業務，他們開始在服務改進方面看到一些早期的萌芽，我們完全希望這種情況會持續到全年。

And Brian, can I just clarify for you the gains. We got about -- with last year, you may recall, we had $67 million of gains. We kind of called out $55 million as a more anomalous figure. And this year, right now, in Q2, we had $28 million of gains.

還有布賴恩，我可以為你澄清一下收益嗎？我們大約 - 去年，您可能還記得，我們獲得了 6700 萬美元的收益。我們有點說 5500 萬美元是一個更反常的數字。今年，現在，在第二季度，我們獲得了 2800 萬美元的收益。

Brian, I'll add in addition to first mile/last mile, we're also delivering improvements in train speed and terminal dwell as well.

布賴恩，除了第一英里/最後一英里之外，我還要補充一點，我們還在提高火車速度和終點站停留時間。

And Mark, for the rest of the year, what should we pencil in for a normalized level of gain if you have one?

馬克，在今年剩下的時間裡，如果你有一個正常化的收益水平，我們應該寫什麼？

Yes, I'm not going to really give you much more than the normal usual quarterly cadence. It can be a little bit volatile and real estate gains, obviously, can move around, even if we expect them to happen this year, they can certainly slide. So if you look so far year-to-date, we're running at about in the low $30 million range. There might be a similar amount in the back half, but probably less than that because things are moving around a little bit on us.

是的，我不會真的給你比正常的季度節奏更多的東西。它可能會有點波動，房地產收益顯然可以左右移動，即使我們預計它們會在今年發生，它們肯定會下滑。因此，如果您從年初至今看，我們的運行價格大約在 3000 萬美元左右。後半部分可能會有類似的數量，但可能會更少，因為事情在我們身上發生了一些變化。

The next question is from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Chris Wetherbee。

I wanted to talk a little bit about the operating ratio outlook and understand if there's a volume assumption underlying that, can you give us a sense of sort of what you need there in terms of operating leverage to be able to hit the numbers?

我想談談運營比率的前景，並了解是否存在基於數量的假設，您能否讓我們了解您在運營槓桿方面需要什麼才能達到這些數字？

And then I guess Mark has given us some clarity on sort of OpEx going forward quarter-by-quarter, should we assume somewhere in the $1.9 billion is the right number sort of ex-fuel going forward still or any help around that for the back half in terms of the operating ratio and volumes would be great.

然後我猜馬克已經讓我們對逐個季度的運營支出有了一些清晰的認識，我們是否應該假設 19 億美元中的某個地方仍然是正確的前燃料數量，或者對後面的任何幫助一半的營業比率和數量將是巨大的。

Chris, with respect to our outlook for volume, we have said we'll be flat for the year. We're down 4% year-to-date. So that suggests some sequential improvement as we move into the second half of the year, and that's going to be supported by our improving service product. Mark, do you want to comment on OpEx?

克里斯，關於我們的銷量前景，我們已經說過我們今年將持平。今年迄今，我們下跌了 4%。因此，這表明隨著我們進入下半年，會有一些連續的改進，這將得到我們改進的服務產品的支持。馬克，你想對運營支出發表評論嗎？

Yes, Chris, you're exactly right in your thinking. If you look at our Q2 OpEx numbers and take away fuel because fuel is going to be what fuel is going to be as that moves. But you look at OpEx ex-fuel in the second quarter and even maybe excluding the items that I called out, the $16 million that was somewhat anomalous, we would project that, that amount would be representative of what to expect in the last 2 quarters on average.

是的，克里斯，你的想法完全正確。如果您查看我們的第二季度運營支出數據並帶走燃料，因為燃料將成為燃料將成為的燃料。但是你看看第二季度的 OpEx ex-fuel 甚至可能不包括我提到的項目，1600 萬美元有點反常，我們預計，這個數字將代表過去兩個季度的預期一般。

So there could be some moves within any particular account or line item in the P&L. But in aggregate, that's kind of the area that we're expecting. And if we have unexpected events, we'll call them out to you like we typically do in our quarterly calls.

因此，在損益表中的任何特定賬戶或行項目中都可能存在一些變動。但總的來說，這是我們所期待的領域。如果我們有意外事件，我們會像我們通常在季度電話會議中那樣向您發出通知。

And then with respect to the cadence of OR improvement, Mark also highlighted in his comments, the 140 basis point headwind that fuel had in the first half of the year. We do not expect that to be the case in the second half of the year.

然後關於 OR 改進的節奏，Mark 在他的評論中還強調了燃料在今年上半年遇到的 140 個基點的逆風。我們預計下半年不會出現這種情況。

We expect it to moderate as we go through the balance of the year.

我們預計它會在我們度過今年的餘額時放緩。

Next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 Cowen 的台詞。

I wanted to talk a little bit about the coal RPU. I think you guys mentioned you're expecting it to step down here. I just wanted to get a little more meat on the bone. Is that just a sequential step down? Or do you think it could step down on a year-over-year basis as well?

我想談談煤炭 RPU。我想你們提到你們希望它在這裡下台。我只是想在骨頭上多吃一點肉。這只是一個連續的步驟嗎？還是您認為它也可能逐年下降？

Ed, would you please address that?

Ed，你能解決這個問題嗎？

Sure. We stay very close to our customers. And of course, we're looking at these commodity prices every day. And the export prices have changed quite a bit. The fact is they're still historically high and there's still a lot of energy in the market, so to speak, but the coal densities have dropped off as a result of the rise in coal inventories ahead of sanctions on Russia, but they remain near 3-year highs.

當然。我們與客戶保持密切聯繫。當然，我們每天都在關注這些商品價格。出口價格也發生了很大變化。事實上，它們仍處於歷史高位，市場上仍有大量能源，可以這麼說，但由於俄羅斯制裁前煤炭庫存增加，煤炭密度下降，但仍接近3年新高。

So when you think about production limitations, you think about constrained supply chains and really looks like steady demand, it should continue to support higher prices as a floor for both thermal and met coals. We expect to see contract and spot pricing outpace where we thought we were at the beginning of the year, but we don't expect to be in those same inflated atmosphere that we saw toward the end of Q1. So when I think about it, I do see sequential declines in the yield, that's about as far as I want to go.

因此，當您考慮生產限制時，您會考慮受限的供應鏈並且看起來確實需求穩定，它應該繼續支持更高的價格，作為動力煤和金屬煤的底價。我們預計合約和現貨價格將超過我們在年初的預期，但我們預計不會像第一季度末那樣處於同樣的膨脹氣氛中。因此，當我考慮到這一點時，我確實看到收益率連續下降，這大約是我想去的地方。

Okay. So it sounds like notable sequential declines, but at least for now, probably still above prior year?

好的。所以這聽起來像是明顯的連續下降，但至少現在，可能仍高於去年？

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的觀點。

I guess a couple of things. How much more headcount do you realistically expect to add in the second half maybe, Cindy, any thoughts on restarting some of these hump yards and if that's -- if there's more of them to do if that's permanent?

我猜有幾件事。辛迪，您實際上希望在下半年增加多少員工，關於重新啟動其中一些駝峰場的任何想法，如果這是 - 如果這是永久性的，是否還有更多的工作要做？

And then Ed, I just want to follow up, your point about -- was that coal RPU is going to be down sequentially or is that overall RPU that you think will be down sequentially from 2Q to 3Q?

然後 Ed，我只想跟進，你的觀點是煤炭 RPU 會連續下降，還是你認為整體 RPU 會從 2Q 到 3Q 連續下降？

Yes, Scott, I'll tackle the headcount question and just say that I expect that we'll be probably about 1,000 heads higher at the end of the year compared to the end of last year and the preponderance of that is going to be in T&E first with trainees, higher training accounts, but then also qualified T&E employees as well. And you can see our targets that we gave to the STB our target of [7,330], I think, by November. -- and that continues to ramp up on the qualified ranks as we get into next year. I think we've got a target out there of over 7,500 by the time we get to May.

是的，斯科特，我會解決員工人數的問題，我希望與去年年底相比，到今年年底我們可能會增加約 1,000 人，而且其中的優勢將出現在T&E 首先是受訓人員，更高的培訓帳戶，但也包括合格的 T&E 員工。你可以看到我們給 STB 的目標是 [7,330]，我認為，到 11 月。 - 隨著我們進入明年，這將繼續增加合格的隊伍。我認為到 5 月我們的目標是超過 7,500。

Let me hand it off to Cindy. Do you want to talk about service?

讓我把它交給辛迪。你想談談服務嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Scott, because I want to make sure I put that in my prepared remarks. So I could talk a little bit more about it. We reactivated these humps to give ourselves some additional capacity that we need in the 2 areas served by Macon and Bellevue.

是的。謝謝你的問題，斯科特，因為我想確保我把它放在我準備好的評論中。所以我可以多談一點。我們重新激活了這些駝峰，為自己提供了一些額外的容量，我們需要在梅肯和貝爾維尤服務的 2 個區域。

The way switching demand has evolved since 2020, there's enough critical mass to justify returning them to service as hump yards. And because we idle them, which was our plan always in 2020, and we didn't eliminate their capabilities. We do not expect any upfront or ongoing cost of any substantial nature.

自 2020 年以來，轉換需求的演變方式，有足夠的臨界質量證明將它們作為駝峰碼返回服務是合理的。因為我們讓他們閒置，這是我們在 2020 年的計劃，我們並沒有消除他們的能力。我們預計不會有任何實質性的前期或持續成本。

So we think that returning to hump yards, humping cars even for either short or long term as an example of resiliency, and it's important that we have that. And I do think -- and when you think about it, the productivity gains that we generated when we idle them the first time we're going to be able to hold on to most of those. That was a lot of the thinking that went into -- that was part of the thinking that went into returning them to service.

所以我們認為回到駝峰場，即使是短期或長期的駝峰汽車作為彈性的一個例子，我們擁有這一點很重要。而且我確實認為 - 當你考慮它時，我們第一次閒置它們時產生的生產力提升，我們將能夠保持其中的大部分。這是很多想法 - 這是讓他們恢復服務的想法的一部分。

And I do think we'll always evaluate. And there'll be times where we may see that we'll idle them again. So it's meant to help us do our #1 goal here, which is to return our service levels.

我確實認為我們會一直評估。有時我們可能會看到我們會再次閒置它們。因此，它旨在幫助我們實現我們的第一目標，即恢復我們的服務水平。

Yes. Let me talk about coal for a second. Yes, we're going to see a sequential decline in the coal RPU, that's going to be an inevitable drag on the overall RPU for the for the rest of the year. But we continue to see strong price opportunities in our other markets, including merchandise intermodal auto.

是的。讓我談談煤炭。是的，我們將看到煤炭 RPU 連續下降，這將不可避免地拖累今年剩餘時間的整體 RPU。但我們繼續在其他市場看到強勁的價格機會，包括商品多式聯運汽車。

The next question is from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Ben Nolan 和 Stifel。

So you guys mentioned storage fees on the intermodal side. I'm curious if you could maybe put a little context around that and then how you see that playing out in the back half of the year?

所以你們提到了多式聯運方面的倉儲費。我很好奇你是否可以在這方面提供一些背景信息，然後你如何看待今年下半年的情況？

Sure. I'll take that. We had anticipated that supply chains would be improving as the year has progressed. And while we saw some improvement earlier in the year, we've seen more of the constraints really become more acute lately. So we are anticipating that supply chains will improve throughout the rest of the year. And as they do, and fluidity improves, then we'll see those storage charges decline.

當然。我會接受的。我們曾預計，隨著時間的推移，供應鏈會有所改善。雖然我們在今年早些時候看到了一些改善，但我們看到更多的限制最近變得更加嚴重。因此，我們預計供應鏈將在今年剩餘時間內得到改善。隨著他們這樣做，流動性提高，那麼我們將看到這些存儲費用下降。

Okay. Any context as to how we should think about what that means in terms of order of magnitude at all?

好的。關於我們應該如何考慮這在數量級方面意味著什麼的任何背景？

I think we'll see -- presuming and this is forecast in the future for things that don't control like supply chains. But if you see improvement, you'll see similar change in the rate of storage.

我想我們會看到 - 假設並且這是未來對供應鍊等無法控制的事情的預測。但是，如果您看到改進，您會看到存儲速率的類似變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Justin Long 和 Stephens 的對話。

Maybe to start with one for Mark. Just thinking about the full year OR guidance, it's 100 to 200 basis points worse than what you anticipated coming into the year. How much of that is fuel versus everything else?

也許從馬克開始。僅考慮全年的 OR 指導，它比您今年的預期差 100 到 200 個基點。與其他一切相比，其中有多少是燃料？

And then, Cindy, I was wondering if you could talk about what you're seeing with attrition rates right now versus normalized levels, especially attrition rates for new employees that you've hired in the last year?

然後，Cindy，我想知道您是否可以談談您現在看到的流失率與正常水平的對比，尤其是您去年僱用的新員工的流失率？

Justin, thanks. This is Mark. Certainly, a portion of it is fuel for sure. But I think the real issue here is just the volume has not come the way we expected it to come. When we were talking about middle of the quarter there about still having a path to our prior guidance, it was really going to require that we saw an upward inflection on volumes take hold pretty quickly and lead to some sustainable ramp that obviously did not happen as we concluded Q2, and we're now projecting more of a gradual ramp in volumes as we're seeing service start to improve here.

賈斯汀，謝謝。這是馬克。當然，其中一部分肯定是燃料。但我認為這裡真正的問題是數量並沒有像我們預期的那樣來。當我們在本季度中期談論仍然有一條通往我們之前指導的道路時，這確實需要我們看到交易量的向上拐點很快就會站穩腳跟，並導致一些顯然沒有發生的可持續增長我們結束了第二季度，我們現在預計銷量會逐漸增加，因為我們看到這裡的服務開始改善。

And then, yes, fuel you heard it, it's 140 basis points of headwind now in the second quarter. It's bigger than we had expected. We do think it moderates as we go through the back half of the year. We're not -- we can't control that. We're not sure. We do take into account the fuel curves when we look at our projections for fuel. But certainly, fuel is an element of that change as well.

然後，是的，加油，你聽說了，現在第二季度有 140 個基點的逆風。它比我們預期的要大。我們確實認為，隨著下半年的到來，它會有所緩和。我們不是——我們無法控制它。我們不確定。當我們查看燃料預測時，我們確實考慮了燃料曲線。但可以肯定的是，燃料也是這種變化的一個因素。

And Justin, as far as attrition rates, globally, we were seeing about the same as we've seen all year both from a tenured employee perspective and a new employee perspective or a conductor trainee perspective, there are clearly markets in locations where it's more challenging than others, and that's also consistent with where we've been all year. I will say that we just recently announced that we are increasing our conductor training rates, and we think that will have a very positive impact for us both in retention as well as attraction. So we're feeling good.

賈斯汀，就員工流失率而言，在全球範圍內，無論是從終身員工的角度還是新員工的角度或指揮實習生的角度來看，我們都看到了與全年所見大致相同的情況，顯然在一些地方有更多的市場比其他人更具挑戰性，這也與我們全年的情況一致。我想說的是，我們最近剛剛宣布提高指揮培訓率，我們認為這將對我們的保留和吸引力產生非常積極的影響。所以我們感覺很好。

The next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自於 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Cindy, there's been this acute focus on labor, and it seems like you guys are doing a good job of ramping up pretty quickly, especially in July, and you're starting to see it in your service metrics. Norfolk specifically has had a little bit more issue with chassis over the last 12 months as well, and you guys kind of laid that out in the presentation. If we take the labor component out of it, what's the equipment situation like? And what's your latent capacity that if you're appropriately resourced from a T&E perspective, you can actually meet this demand, we'll see more of an inflection in volumes?

辛迪，人們一直非常關注勞動力，看起來你們在快速提升方面做得很好，尤其是在 7 月份，而且你們開始在服務指標中看到這一點。在過去的 12 個月裡，諾福克在底盤方面也遇到了更多問題，你們在演示文稿中已經說明了這一點。如果我們去掉勞動力部分，設備情況如何？如果從 T&E 的角度來看，如果你有適當的資源，你實際上可以滿足這一需求，那麼你的潛在能力是多少，我們會看到更多的數量變化？

So let me just add equipment wise. We do -- we are -- I'll talk about locomotives and I'll turn it over to Ed to talk a little bit about chassis. You didn't mention locomotives, but it is important to make sure you note that in my prepared remarks, I did indicate that we're keeping our surge fleet fully activated throughout this whole process here as we recover service, and we're bringing on our DC to AC conversions, which is also allowing us some capacity from an equipment basis on locomotives.

所以讓我明智地添加設備。我們確實——我們是——我會談談機車，我會把它交給 Ed 來談談底盤。你沒有提到機車，但重要的是要確保你注意到，在我準備好的評論中，我確實表示，隨著我們恢復服務，我們將在整個過程中保持我們的增援艦隊完全啟動，並且我們正在帶來在我們的直流到交流轉換上，這也使我們能夠從機車的設備基礎上獲得一些容量。

From a chassis perspective, let me turn it over to Ed for some detail.

從機箱的角度來看，讓我把它交給 Ed 了解一些細節。

Sure. Thank you, Cindy. We have a couple of hundred in hand with more arriving each week, and we expect a significant tranche of improvement to land during the fourth quarter this year. So I think we're in pretty good shape when it comes to our chassis. We see the normal, what I would call normal course of business sporadic disruptions associated with chassis for both other domestic partners as well as (inaudible).

當然。謝謝你，辛迪。我們手頭有幾百個，每週還會有更多人到貨，我們預計今年第四季度土地將有顯著改善。所以我認為我們在底盤方面的狀況非常好。我們看到了正常的，我稱之為正常的業務過程，與其他國內合作夥伴以及（聽不清）底盤相關的零星中斷。

But again, I would consider that normal course of business. Outside the gate, we are seeing supply chains impacted by the congestions of first mile/last mile on the street, elevated Street wells as well as volume fluctuations associated with different ports, a lot of drayage capacity issues and, of course, available warehouse space. And if you read the papers the way I do, you see a lot of ships waiting offshore at a number of ports, which has really not shrunk very much.

但同樣，我會考慮正常的業務過程。在大門外，我們看到供應鏈受到街道上第一英里/最後一英里的擁堵、高架街道井以及與不同港口相關的容量波動、大量貨運能力問題，當然還有可用的倉庫空間的影響.如果你像我一樣閱讀報紙，你會看到許多港口在海上等待著許多船隻，這些港口實際上並沒有縮小多少。

Next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Maybe, Cindy, I just want to dig into the hump returning a little bit here. Just why bring them back, isn't it more efficient to be flat, I guess, just from us being on the other side of the table years and years, it seems like all we heard was the first thing under precision scheduled railroading to do was to eliminate the humps to save on touching and time.

也許，Cindy，我只是想深入研究一下回到這裡的駝峰。只是為什麼要把它們帶回來，我想，平躺不是更有效嗎，就因為我們多年來一直處於桌子的另一邊，似乎我們聽到的只是在精確計劃鐵路下要做的第一件事是消除駝峰以節省觸摸和時間。

And then, I guess, Alan, with that, would you consider bringing on any PSR expertise just as CN just did with Ed Harris on a consulting basis. Obviously, there's a couple of, I guess, PSR experts out there that are available. Is that something you would consider?

然後，我想，Alan 會考慮引入任何 PSR 專業知識，就像 CN 剛剛在諮詢基礎上對 Ed Harris 所做的那樣。顯然，我猜有幾個 PSR 專家可用。這是你會考慮的嗎？

So Ken, let me start with the hump. So we really did take a really deep dive into this. And when you think about not only sort of traffic changes that have occurred since 2020, that had a big impact on it. But the other piece is the idea of switching cars beyond the hump yards and bypassing them reflect which to reduce demand so that you can flap switching them. Challenge has really been having the people to do that switching where we are moving them to serving our customers. So the value is really in being able to have a location that you can get to switching done. It may be short term and maybe longer term, we'll just see how it evolves, but that's the thinking behind it.

所以肯，讓我從駝峰開始。因此，我們確實對此進行了深入研究。當你考慮到自 2020 年以來發生的各種交通變化時，這對其產生了重大影響。但另一部分是在駝峰碼之外切換汽車並繞過它們的想法，這反映了減少需求的想法，以便您可以隨意切換它們。挑戰確實是讓人們在我們將他們轉移到為客戶服務的地方進行轉換。因此，真正的價值在於能夠擁有一個可以完成切換的位置。它可能是短期的，也可能是長期的，我們只會看看它是如何演變的，但這就是它背後的想法。

And again, I do want to emphasize that we really consider the cost associated with it to make sure that we had a really good trade-off here. And we're really going to be able to hold on a number of the gains that we have.

再一次，我想強調的是，我們確實考慮了與之相關的成本，以確保我們在這裡有一個非常好的權衡。而且我們真的將能夠保持我們所擁有的一些收益。

We're confident it's not going to add cost, more of the case, the humps is making sure that you're not running cars out of route just to have them hump. And so we saw that discipline when we closed these 2 hump yards during the pandemic and the volume outlook has changed. We've maintained our focus on a very efficient, balanced operating plan.

我們相信它不會增加成本，更重要的是，駝峰確保您不會讓汽車偏離路線，只是為了讓它們駝峰。因此，當我們在大流行期間關閉這兩個駝峰場時，我們看到了這種紀律，並且數量前景發生了變化。我們一直專注於非常高效、平衡的運營計劃。

We just installed a new operating plan and opening the humps just makes those switching operations more efficient. And we've got a great team. As you take just a look around the table of the folks on this call, we're fortunate to have 2 folks who join us from outside of Norfolk Southern who contributed greatly to our success.

我們剛剛安裝了一個新的操作計劃，打開駝峰只會讓這些切換操作更有效率。我們有一個很棒的團隊。當您環顧本次電話會議的成員時，我們很幸運有 2 位來自 Norfolk Southern 以外的人加入我們，他們為我們的成功做出了巨大貢獻。

The next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

Great. Yes. I wanted to ask a little bit more on TOP|SPG and the schedule changes. I think, Cindy, you said something like 90% of the trains you reviewed and -- how should we think about the schedule changes that were made? And then also maybe if you consider that relative to the changes made a couple of years ago when you originally implemented TOP?

偉大的。是的。我想問更多關於 TOP|SPG 和日程安排的問題。我想，Cindy，你說的大約 90% 的火車都是你檢查過的，而且——我們應該如何看待所做的時刻表更改？如果您考慮到幾年前您最初實施 TOP 時所做的更改，那麼您是否也可以考慮這一點？

I think of those changes as being fewer train starts, longer trains. How should we think about the train schedule changes made with TOP|SPG? Is it also fewer train starts or where it sounds like in intermodal might even be more train starts and some different approach. I just wondered if you could offer more perspective on what you're doing with that in terms of train starts and other changes?

我認為這些變化是更少的火車開始，更長的火車。我們應該如何看待 TOP|SPG 對列車時刻表的更改？是否也有更少的火車開始或聽起來像多式聯運的地方甚至可能是更多的火車開始和一些不同的方法。我只是想知道您是否可以就火車啟動和其他變化方面的工作提供更多觀點？

Sure. Thanks for the question. So just to go to a high level here, our main 3 objectives on TOP|SPG were to balance the network, improve executability and increase train size. And part of the changes in the schedules were really to help us balance the network, balance the flows across the network, both cars and locomotives and make sure that we have realistic schedules that allowed trains to arrive and depart terminals. So we didn't have them bunched in or bunched out of a particular terminal.

當然。謝謝你的問題。因此，為了達到更高的水平，我們在 TOP|SPG 上的主要 3 個目標是平衡網絡、提高可執行性和增加列車規模。時刻表的部分變化實際上是為了幫助我們平衡網絡，平衡整個網絡的流量，包括汽車和機車，並確保我們有現實的時刻表，允許火車到達和離開航站樓。所以我們沒有讓他們聚集在或聚集在一個特定的終端。

We also, as I noted in my prepared remarks, have increased our distributed power utilization and accounting for that as trains were departing and/or working in individual terminals is a lot of the work that we've done. And the 90% of the schedules doesn't mean that we've changed them dramatically, but we've adjusted them so that we can make sure that when we operate our plan, that we don't have conflicts that prevent us from being able to execute consistently. So that's really what we were trying to achieve there.

正如我在準備好的評論中所指出的那樣，我們還提高了分佈式能源利用率，並且在火車出發和/或在各個航站樓工作時，我們已經完成了很多工作。 90% 的時間表並不意味著我們已經大幅改變了它們，但我們已經對其進行了調整，以便我們可以確保當我們執行我們的計劃時，我們不會有衝突阻止我們成為能夠始終如一地執行。所以這確實是我們試圖在那裡實現的目標。

It has substantially reduced the number of train meets on our network, which makes our operations more fluid and more executable by our team. And consistent with our no surprises approach, we involved our customers. Ed, do you want to give some perspective on the customer involvement?

它大大減少了我們網絡上的火車會議數量，這使我們的運營更加流暢，我們的團隊也更加可執行。與我們毫不意外的做法一致，我們讓客戶參與其中。 Ed，您想就客戶參與度發表一些看法嗎？

Sure. Absolutely. The first thing our customers want. And by the way, let me just say, we are so lucky to have a great coalition of partners that we do business with every day, and they really want us to have an executable train schedule. They want to have a predictable service product. And so they have been highly collaborative with us as we've gone through the TOP|SPG process. To look at the changes that were necessary to improve the executability of our product.

當然。絕對地。我們的客戶想要的第一件事。順便說一句，我們很幸運能夠擁有一個我們每天都與之開展業務的優秀合作夥伴聯盟，他們真的希望我們有一個可執行的火車時刻表。他們希望擁有可預測的服務產品。因此，在我們完成 TOP|SPG 流程時，他們一直與我們高度合作。查看為提高我們產品的可執行性所必需的更改。

And I can't say enough about the collaboration that we've had with them. And I think we're starting to see some early results. And I think that they would say the same thing. So we're encouraged by those results, but I am most particularly encouraged by the level of the collaboration that we've enjoyed with our partners.

關於我們與他們的合作，我不能說太多。我認為我們開始看到一些早期的結果。我認為他們會說同樣的話。因此，我們對這些結果感到鼓舞，但最讓我感到鼓舞的是我們與合作夥伴的合作水平。

So just, I guess, to be clear, should we think of this as a reduction in train starts or an increase or kind of net, not a big impact, but just more rebalancing?

所以，我想，要清楚一點，我們應該把這看作是減少火車啟動還是增加或某種淨值，不是很大的影響，而只是更多的再平衡？

I think as we continue to roll it out, I mean we -- I noted that we started in the second half or actually it was in late second quarter. We still have some work to do to roll it out in the intermodal space. And what you'll -- what I would say relative to crew starts is we're going to improve service frequency in some of our core markets, and we're not going to be adding crew starts. And we may have a small reduction in that lane or in those lanes. But it's -- we're still in the process of putting it on the railroad.

我認為隨著我們繼續推出它，我的意思是我們 - 我注意到我們從下半年開始，或者實際上是在第二季度末。我們還有一些工作要做，才能在多式聯運領域推出。你會 - 我會說相對於機組人員的啟動，我們將提高我們一些核心市場的服務頻率，並且我們不會增加機組人員的啟動。我們可能會在那個車道或那些車道上小幅減少。但它 - 我們仍在將它放在鐵路上。

Tom, what it does is it really improves the executability of our operating plan, which means we're going to be more consistent, more reliable, more on schedule. Those are the principles of PSR. That will reduce the friction costs associated with slowness in our network.

湯姆，它確實提高了我們運營計劃的可執行性，這意味著我們將更加一致、更可靠、更準時。這些是 PSR 的原則。這將減少與我們網絡緩慢相關的摩擦成本。

The next question is from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Mark, I just wanted to understand the cadence of the OR in the back half because volume out of the gate here in the third quarter is pretty weak. I think it's down like 3% or something like that. Typically, we do see maybe flattish to slightly worse OR 3Q versus 2Q. I don't know if -- I mean is the full year guide, the revised full year guide really contemplating kind of a big inflection in the fourth quarter? Or does the third quarter look a lot like the fourth quarter? If you can talk about that.

馬克，我只是想了解 OR 在後半段的節奏，因為第三節這裡的輸出量非常弱。我認為它下降了 3% 或類似的東西。通常情況下，我們確實看到 3Q 與 2Q 可能持平或稍差。我不知道——我的意思是全年指南，修訂後的全年指南是否真的考慮到第四季度的重大轉折？還是第三季度看起來很像第四季度？如果你能談談。

And then just for the industry, maybe this one is for Cindy and Alan. The industry has been talking about better service and more labor for a long time over the last several months. And we've been kind of disappointed not just with Norfolk, but I think the industry as a whole, I think it would just be helpful to understand when do you guys actually think timing-wise? We see a more pronounced inflection. We've seen some green shoots, as you mentioned, or maybe a stabilization. I mean, are we talking about September, October? When do you think you're at the point equipment and labor wise where we actually see some tangible inflection in the service metrics?

然後就行業而言，也許這個是給 Cindy 和 Alan 的。在過去的幾個月裡，該行業一直在談論更好的服務和更多的勞動力。我們不僅對諾福克感到失望，而且我認為整個行業，我認為了解你們什麼時候真正考慮時機會很有幫助？我們看到了更明顯的拐點。正如你所提到的，我們已經看到了一些綠芽，或者可能是穩定了。我的意思是，我們是在談論九月，十月嗎？您認為您什麼時候在設備和勞動力方面處於我們實際看到服務指標出現明顯變化的地步？

Yes. I'll cover the service metrics first. We outlined our plan for the Surface Transportation Board. It will be beginning of next year before we're at our targeted headcount that's going to create a big lift. We've already seen improvements in our service product with the implementation of TOP|SPG and with the onboarding of new conductors. And I think that will continue to improve as the year progresses. It won't be linear, but we should see some lift as we move out of vacation season as well in terms of the availability of our crews.

是的。我將首先介紹服務指標。我們概述了地面交通委員會的計劃。在我們達到目標人數之前，這將是明年年初，這將創造一個巨大的提升。隨著 TOP|SPG 的實施和新指揮的加入，我們已經看到我們的服務產品有所改進。我認為隨著時間的推移，這將繼續改善。它不會是線性的，但隨著我們離開假期以及我們工作人員的可用性，我們應該會看到一些提升。

And Amit, so that leads to pretty much the volume profile as well. We'll probably see more of a ramp into fourth quarter with more volume that should help the operating ratio. But of course, there are seasonal headwinds that typically take effect in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter that might neutralize some of that when we look at the OR progression.

還有阿米特，所以這也導致了音量分佈。我們可能會在第四季度看到更多的增長，更多的交易量應該有助於運營比率。但是，當然，當我們查看 OR 進展時，通常在第四季度與第三季度相比，通常會出現季節性逆風，這可能會抵消其中的一些不利因素。

So we're not going to give the quarterly guidance, but it does seem to be probably a little bit more of an upward -- I'm sorry, a little bit more of a gradual improvement in the OR as we go through the balance of the year as volumes come on mainly in the fourth quarter. The volume growth, I should say, comes on mainly in the fourth quarter.

所以我們不會給出季度指導，但它似乎確實可能有點向上 - 對不起，隨著我們完成平衡，OR 會逐漸改善一點由於銷量主要出現在第四季度。我應該說，銷量增長主要出現在第四季度。

So does that -- so does that mean we take a step back before we accelerate into the fourth quarter? I'm just trying to understand, is it a slope upwards in the back half versus where you are in the second quarter? Or is it a step back? Is it a little bit of a J curve?

那麼這是否意味著我們在加速進入第四季度之前退後一步？我只是想了解，與你在第二節的位置相比，後半部分是否向上傾斜？還是退一步？是不是有點J曲線？

Well, I think we're going to -- I would fully expect that we'll see sequential improvement from the second to the third quarter. I'm just -- I'm not going to tell you yet whether we'll also see sequential improvement from the third quarter or to the fourth quarter or if there'll be somewhat on par with one another.

好吧，我認為我們會 - 我完全期望我們會看到從第二季度到第三季度的連續改善。我只是 - 我不會告訴你我們是否還會看到從第三季度或到第四季度的連續改善，或者是否會彼此相提並論。

The next question comes from the line of Ari Rosa with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

So I wanted to ask just kind of a broader philosophical question. I think we've been dancing around it with a couple of questions that have been asked. But you're talking about obviously adding headcount, bringing equipment back onto the network, reintroducing some of these hump yards. Is there a point where service improvement maybe is at odds with OR improvement? And at what point do you think we can kind of see a resumption in OR improvement? And as we think about 2023 what kind of incremental margins might we be looking at as that service gets back to where you want it to be?

所以我想問一個更廣泛的哲學問題。我想我們一直在圍繞它跳舞，提出了幾個問題。但是您顯然是在談論增加員工人數，將設備帶回網絡，重新引入其中一些駝峰場。是否存在服務改進可能與 OR 改進不一致的地方？您認為我們在什麼時候可以看到 OR 改善的恢復？當我們考慮到 2023 年時，隨著該服務回到您想要的位置，我們可能會看到什麼樣的增量利潤？

We fully believe that service and margin improvement are complementary. They support each other and our trajectory for service improvements and the attendant improvement in OR belies that fact, we're going to take a balanced approach. We've got balanced objectives of service, productivity and growth and our new operating plan, that provides some sort of insight as to how we're thinking about this thing. Our priority is to improve service as service and fluidity improve, you're going to see significant volume uptick and productivity gains, which will collectively drive margin improvement.

我們完全相信服務和利潤率的提高是相輔相成的。他們相互支持，我們的服務改進軌跡和伴隨的 OR 改進掩蓋了這樣一個事實，我們將採取平衡的方法。我們制定了服務、生產力和增長的平衡目標以及我們的新運營計劃，這為我們如何看待這件事提供了某種洞察力。我們的首要任務是隨著服務和流動性的改善而改善服務，您將看到數量顯著增加和生產力提高，這將共同推動利潤率的提高。

And Ari, I also remind you, in a difficult service environment like we're dealing with, there's a fair amount of incremental costs that we're absorbing to have to cope with it, whether it's incremental overtime, whether it's recrews, whether it's train costs, you name it, training, travel, taxi, there's a fair amount of cost right now that we're absorbing in our P&L to deal with the current service challenges. So that starts to lessen as service improves, and I think you need to keep that in mind.

阿里，我還提醒你，在我們正在處理的困難服務環境中，我們需要吸收相當多的增量成本來應對它，無論是增量加班，還是新兵，還是火車成本，你說的，培訓，旅行，出租車，現在我們在損益表中吸收了相當多的成本來應對當前的服務挑戰。因此，隨著服務的改進，這種情況開始減少，我認為您需要牢記這一點。

Yes. And even in my prepared remarks, I talked about the fact that both train length and train weight are up even in difficult circumstances here. So think we'll hold on to that. And I'm very positive on being able to run a very efficient network that serves our customers extremely well.

是的。甚至在我準備好的講話中，我也談到了火車長度和火車重量都增加的事實，即使在困難的情況下也是如此。所以認為我們會堅持下去。我非常看好能夠運行一個非常高效的網絡，為我們的客戶提供非常好的服務。

The next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

Cindy this might send a little naive, but I know we always focus on conductor trainees. My understanding, though, is that for engineering or to be an engineer that training is a little bit more intensive or maybe longer duration. So can you talk about your qualified engineer ranks? And is that potentially a next bottleneck or again, is that just a naive question?

Cindy 這可能有點幼稚，但我知道我們總是專注於指揮實習生。不過，我的理解是，對於工程或成為一名工程師來說，培訓會更加密集或持續時間更長。那麼你能談談你的合格工程師等級嗎？這可能是下一個瓶頸還是再次出現，這只是一個幼稚的問題嗎？

It's a great question. We are -- as you noted, conductors take promotion to engineers. That is our pipeline for locomotive engineers. Over the years, our investments, part of the resiliency investments we've made is to qualify more people to be locomotive engineers as conductors step them up to qualify and then step them back down to active working conductors. So we keep a buffer that is -- that we've used through this time where we can step up engineers and then backfill with conductor trainees.

這是一個很好的問題。我們是——正如你所指出的，指揮員會晉升為工程師。這就是我們為機車工程師準備的管道。多年來，我們的投資（我們所做的彈性投資的一部分）是讓更多的人有資格成為機車工程師，因為指揮員讓他們獲得資格，然後讓他們重新成為活躍的工作指揮員。因此，我們保留了一個緩衝區——我們在這段時間裡一直在使用它，我們可以提升工程師，然後用指揮實習生回填。

And I would say that we're already starting the process, training some locomotive engineers will be next month. We will keep an eye on that and maintain that buffer that's going to be part of -- as we stabilize service levels and get our conductor ranks where they need to be, that will be one of the big areas that we focus on in 2023.

我想說我們已經開始了這個過程，培訓一些機車工程師將在下個月進行。我們將密切關注這一點，並保持將成為其中一部分的緩衝區——隨著我們穩定服務水平並讓我們的指揮隊伍達到他們需要的水平，這將是我們在 2023 年關注的主要領域之一。

The next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Cindy, can you help us understand how your customers right now are thinking about truck to rail conversion. Obviously, your service is improving, you're pretty in place TOP|SPG and that helps, but at the same time the truck market is loosening. And I think for now at least, shippers want like super tight fast supply chains with high turnover. So what's driving that incremental conversion and is TOP|SPG enough to do that?

Cindy，您能否幫助我們了解您的客戶現在如何考慮卡車到鐵路的轉換。顯然，您的服務正在改善，您的位置非常好 TOP|SPG 這有幫助，但與此同時，卡車市場正在鬆動。而且我認為至少現在，托運人想要超緊的快速供應鍊和高周轉率。那麼是什麼推動了這種增量轉換，TOP|SPG 是否足以做到這一點？

Mark, why don't you talk about what you're hearing from our customers with respect to opportunities?

馬克，你為什麼不談談你從我們的客戶那裡聽到的關於機會的事情？

Absolutely. We're talking to our partners every day. And frankly, the truck prices are loosening, but our customers remind us every single day that those are from historically very high levels. And the contract rates have stabilized.

絕對地。我們每天都在與我們的合作夥伴交談。坦率地說，卡車價格正在放鬆，但我們的客戶每天都在提醒我們，這些價格來自歷史上非常高的水平。合同費率已經穩定。

There are a number of things that our customers want, but one of them is they want to do more business with us. Our customers have freight that they would like to put on the railroad and as our network throughput capacity improves through network velocity, they're going to do that. They have -- we have line of sight on freight that want to move on the railroad right now, whether it's in our industrial markets, our consumer markets or energy markets.

我們的客戶想要做很多事情，但其中之一就是他們想與我們開展更多業務。我們的客戶有他們想放在鐵路上的貨物，隨著我們的網絡吞吐量通過網絡速度提高，他們將這樣做。他們有——我們對現在想要在鐵路上運輸的貨物有一定的了解，無論是在我們的工業市場、消費市場還是能源市場。

And we're confident that as the network velocity improves, our customers are going to find additional value in the product that we're able to deliver to them, and that will manifest itself in additional volumes later this year.

我們相信，隨著網絡速度的提高，我們的客戶將在我們能夠交付給他們的產品中找到額外的價值，這將在今年晚些時候以額外的數量體現出來。

Got it. So given the incremental value provision of rails, you guys are confident that you can push yields higher even if the truck market -- truck pricing comes down?

知道了。因此，鑑於軌道的增量價值供應，你們有信心即使卡車市場 - 卡車價格下降，也可以提高產量？

Yes. We stay very, very close to that. We're always looking at what truck prices are doing. Again, contract prices have stabilized at very high levels. We're always looking at the gap between what we believe the value that we're offering versus what a truck offers. And we looked at a number of lanes specifically where we offer intermodal service as an example, and we're comfortable that our door-to-door pricing is very competitive against over-the-road trucking.

是的。我們非常非常接近這一點。我們一直在關注卡車價格的走勢。合同價格再次穩定在非常高的水平。我們一直在關注我們認為我們提供的價值與卡車提供的價值之間的差距。我們以提供多式聯運服務的一些車道為例，我們很滿意我們的門到門定價與公路貨運相比非常有競爭力。

And let me remind everyone, including myself, there are multiple advantages to using rail versus the highway, including sustainability. We've seen a lot of our customers make commitments publicly about what it's going to take for them to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

讓我提醒每個人，包括我自己，與高速公路相比，使用鐵路有多種優勢，包括可持續性。我們已經看到我們的許多客戶公開承諾他們將採取哪些措施來減少溫室氣體排放。

And when we think about the consumer packaged goods business, approximately 80% of the greenhouse gas comes from transportation. The efficiency advantage that we deliver for our customers over a long period of time is going to help them achieve those goals.

當我們考慮消費品業務時，大約 80% 的溫室氣體來自運輸。我們長期為客戶提供的效率優勢將幫助他們實現這些目標。

Let me -- I'll add we had -- in our intermodal franchise has delivered 22 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth in RPU ex fuel. That's during a freight recession and during the pandemic. And so there's great value with the product that we deliver. And our focus now is on enhancing the value of that product.

讓我 - 我要補充一下 - 在我們的多式聯運專營權中，RPU（不含燃料）連續 22 個季度實現了同比增長。那是在貨運衰退期間和大流行期間。因此，我們提供的產品具有很高的價值。我們現在的重點是提高該產品的價值。

The next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors 行。

Mark and Alan, as you both alluded to in your prepared remarks, there's some uncertainty as to what the actual wage increases from 2024 are ultimately going to be. Can you talk about how you have managed that uncertainty with your accruals so far? And if the actual wage is come in different than those expectations, when do you true that up retroactively and communicate it to us on a go-forward basis?

馬克和艾倫，正如你們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，從 2024 年開始的實際工資增長最終會是多少存在一些不確定性。您能談談到目前為止您是如何通過應計項目管理這種不確定性的嗎？如果實際工資與這些預期不同，您何時會追溯確認並在前進的基礎上與我們溝通？

Bascome, thanks a lot for the question. This is Mark. Look, we've agreed with PEB that we weren't going to discuss publicly what our relative positions are. But I will tell you, we have accrued a level of back wages that reflects our efforts to keep our craft workers amongst the highest paid in any industry. And obviously, if there's a settlement that is at a different level, whether that happens through the PEB or subsequent to the PEB, we will have to make an adjustment, and we will make that very, very clear in terms of disclosure to you all what the impact will be.

Bascome，非常感謝這個問題。這是馬克。聽著，我們已經與 PEB 達成一致，我們不會公開討論我們的相對立場。但我會告訴你，我們已經累積了一定水平的拖欠工資，這反映了我們努力使我們的手工藝工人保持在所有行業中最高工資的行列。顯然，如果有一個不同級別的和解，無論是通過 PEB 還是在 PEB 之後發生，我們都必須做出調整，我們會在向大家披露的方面非常非常清楚地說明這一點會有什麼影響。

So again, whatever that increment is, we'll let you know. But right now, we are accruing something based upon what our expectations were.

再說一次，無論增量是多少，我們都會讓你知道。但是現在，我們正在根據我們的期望積累一些東西。

And just to clarify, you mentioned the PEB a couple of times in your timing. Is it the PEB report that would be that triggering your mind or something subsequent like a tentative agreement with the coalition or something in that vein?

為了澄清起見，您在時間安排中多次提到了 PEB。是 PEB 的報告會觸發你的想法，還是隨後的一些事情，比如與聯盟達成的臨時協議或類似的事情？

Yes. We have to work with the accountants to understand what the trigger event will be. So I'm not really at liberty to pinpoint that right now on this call.

是的。我們必須與會計師合作以了解觸發事件將是什麼。所以我現在不能在這次電話會議上確定這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Just a question about the hiring process. And I know there's been a bunch of this quarter. One of the complaints we had heard from some other rails is that they were seeing a problem retaining employees post training. Now you had mentioned the wage increase and some of the carrots that you had put out there. But I guess 2 questions. Why has this become so problematic? Is it just that it's kind of a Gen Z, the employee wants different things, and we've got to change the job kind of item? Is it more of a pay item?

只是一個關於招聘過程的問題。我知道這個季度有很多。我們從其他一些公司那裡聽到的抱怨之一是，他們發現在培訓後留住員工存在問題。現在你提到了工資增長和你放在那裡的一些胡蘿蔔。但我猜有2個問題。為什麼這變得如此成問題？僅僅是因為它是 Z 世代，員工想要不同的東西，而我們必須改變工作類型嗎？它更像是一個付費項目嗎？

And then secondly, let's say the economy slows a lot faster than we all think, just theoretically, and I know your volume forecast doesn't imply that. Do we still stay to the 1,000 employees by the end of the year?

其次，假設經濟放緩的速度比我們所有人想像的要快得多，只是理論上，我知道你的銷量預測並不意味著這一點。到年底，我們是否仍保留 1,000 名員工？

Great. Well, let me start with the training retention piece. One of the challenges for our trainees when they mark up as a seniority-based system, they will tend to get the work that others do not necessarily -- they do not want. Those will be the jobs that they can hold.

偉大的。好吧，讓我從培訓保留部分開始。當我們的學員標記為基於資歷的系統時，他們面臨的挑戰之一是，他們往往會得到其他人不一定 - 他們不想要的工作。這些將是他們可以擔任的工作。

So as they step into that role, some find that, that's not really what they're looking for. We -- our training process allows us to convey that information, but sometimes it doesn't become real until you come up and you mark up. I will say in terms of what could be a solution at the national table is conductor redeployment that will allow us to have a more structured work environment for more conductors than we do today.

所以當他們進入那個角色時，有些人會發現，這並不是他們真正想要的。我們——我們的培訓過程允許我們傳達這些信息，但有時它不會變成真實的，直到你出現並標記。我要說的是，在全國范圍內可能的解決方案是指揮人員的重新部署，這將使我們能夠為比今天更多的指揮人員提供更有條理的工作環境。

So that is part of what we feel like is a good solution, and we feel like it will fit the needs and demands of our workforce in the future, which is why we've got it on the table for negotiation.

所以這是我們認為是一個很好的解決方案的一部分，我們認為它會滿足我們未來員工的需求，這就是為什麼我們將它放在談判桌上的原因。

Jeff, it's really more of a lifestyle challenge in a very unique market where everybody is looking for talent. So you have to compete against everybody simultaneously. So labor has their choice of what they want to do. And in many cases, despite the very rich and attractive pay structure that the railroads offer, sometimes, they'd rather work in a more predictable schedule in warehousing or in home construction, where they can be nearby where they live and not stay in hotels and also just not be on call or work their shift. So we're just in a very unique environment right now where the entire labor market have their options to choose from.

傑夫，在一個每個人都在尋找人才的非常獨特的市場中，這實際上更像是一種生活方式的挑戰。所以你必須同時與所有人競爭。因此，勞動力可以選擇他們想做的事情。而且在許多情況下，儘管鐵路提供了非常豐富和有吸引力的薪酬結構，但有時，他們寧願在倉庫或房屋建築中以更可預測的時間表工作，在那裡他們可以在他們居住的地方附近而不是住在酒店而且也只是不隨叫隨到或輪班工作。所以我們現在只是處於一個非常獨特的環境中，整個勞動力市場都有他們的選擇。

And as Cindy noted, some of those work rules changes that we're proposing would directly address some of those issues that Mark articulated.

正如 Cindy 所指出的，我們提議的一些工作規則變更將直接解決 Mark 所闡述的一些問題。

Okay. And second half of the question, I know the trainees are already in process. So were we pretty committed to that 1,000-plus employees by year-end with the STB plan or what if the world changes?

好的。問題的後半部分，我知道學員已經在進行中。那麼，我們是否非常致力於通過 STB 計劃在年底之前為這 1,000 多名員工提供服務，或者如果世界發生變化怎麼辦？

We are committed to high levels of service throughout all economic cycles because we believe that services resiliency enhances the ability to be opportunistic during the near-term recovery and generates confidence by our customers and building supply chains around us for the long term. As Ed noted, there are a lot of inherent advantages to our network. There's a lot of reasons that customers want to do business with us over the long term.

我們致力於在所有經濟周期中提供高水平的服務，因為我們相信服務彈性增強了在近期復蘇期間投機取巧的能力，並為我們的客戶帶來信心，並在我們周圍建立長期供應鏈。正如 Ed 指出的，我們的網絡有很多固有的優勢。客戶希望與我們長期開展業務的原因有很多。

Our final question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們的最後一個問題來自 David Vernon 和 Bernstein 的觀點。

I've got 2 longer-term questions for you on TOP|SPG. If we're adding 1,000 heads to workforce. Can you talk about maybe, Cindy, what level of volume growth you could absorb with that headcount once it gets productive? I'm trying to understand whether the embedded labor productivity level in this new version of the operating plan is higher or lower than maybe what we've seen in the early days of PSR.

我有 2 個關於 TOP|SPG 的長期問題要問你。如果我們要增加 1,000 名員工。辛迪，您能否談談，一旦它變得富有成效，您可以通過該員工人數吸收多大程度的銷量增長？我試圖了解這個新版本的運營計劃中嵌入的勞動生產率水平是高於還是低於我們在 PSR 早期看到的水平。

And then, Alan, maybe longer term on the service side, does this get us to that low to mid-80s in first and last mile sort of service levels as you outlined for the STB? Or is there upside to that? I'm just trying to get a sense for kind of how you think about is low to mid-80s enough to drive modal conversion longer term?

然後，艾倫，也許是服務方面的長期工作，這是否能讓我們達到你為 STB 概述的第一英里和最後一英里服務水平的低到 80 年代中期？還是有好處？我只是想了解一下您認為從 80 年代中期到 80 年代中期是否足以推動長期模式轉換？

David, I'll start. I mean so from TOP|SPG, I mean, I would think it's going to be a very productive operating plan. And obviously, it's not going to be static. We're going to adjust as volume adjusts and as business adjusts across our network. It's about balanced executability and train size, as I described.

大衛，我要開始了。我的意思是，從 TOP|SPG 來看，我的意思是，我認為這將是一個非常有成效的運營計劃。顯然，它不會是靜態的。隨著業務量的調整和整個網絡的業務調整，我們將進行調整。正如我所描述的，這是關於平衡的可執行性和訓練規模。

One of the areas that I mentioned in my prepared remarks in the bulk network, we have seen a lot of improvement in train size from the standpoint of combinations of trains, but we will be able to add additional cars to trains as well in our standard sets in our grain network. So I see this as an enabler from a productivity standpoint and allow us to bring on volume with a consistent operation that we will offer.

我在散裝網絡中準備好的評論中提到的領域之一，從火車組合的角度來看，我們已經看到火車尺寸有很多改進，但我們也可以在我們的標準中向火車添加額外的車廂設置在我們的穀物網絡中。因此，從生產力的角度來看，我認為這是一個推動因素，並允許我們通過我們將提供的一致操作來增加產量。

Go ahead.

前進。

Let me just add to the fact that the number of people we're adding, it requires a lot more energy and people to get the network sped up to where it needs to be. And then also that the number of people we're adding. And once we're up to speed, gives us the capacity -- additional head count capacity to handle even greater volume. So I think that's the other point is the capacity dividend that a faster network provides will allow us to take on more volume.

讓我補充一點，我們正在增加的人數，需要更多的精力和更多的人才能讓網絡加速到需要的地方。然後還有我們要添加的人數。一旦我們跟上速度，就可以為我們提供容量——額外的人數容量來處理更大的容量。所以我認為另一點是更快的網絡提供的容量紅利將使我們能夠承擔更多的容量。

And a stable, reliable, predictable service product over a long period of time is exactly what our customers need to build their businesses around ours, and we can offer tremendous value and unlock value for them and for their customers by delivering that kind of service. And that's what we're committed to over the long term whether in a high level of service that our customers need that allows them to deliver growth and value for their customers.

長期穩定、可靠、可預測的服務產品正是我們的客戶圍繞我們建立業務所需要的，我們可以通過提供這種服務為他們和他們的客戶提供巨大的價值並釋放價值。這就是我們長期致力於的，無論是在我們的客戶需要的高水平服務中，使他們能夠為客戶帶來增長和價值。

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Alan Shaw for closing comments.

謝謝你。問答環節到此結束。我現在將電話轉回給 Alan Shaw 先生，以徵求結束意見。

We thank you for joining us today.

我們感謝您今天加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，並度過美好的一天。