NRG Energy Inc (NRG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to NRG Energy's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

    再會。謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 NRG Energy 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, Kevin Cole, Head of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在將會議交給演講主持人、財務和投資者關係主管凱文·科爾 (Kevin Cole)。請繼續。

  • Kevin Cole - SVP, IR

    Kevin Cole - SVP, IR

  • Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length and is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com, under Presentations and Webcasts.

    謝謝。早安,歡迎參加 NRG Energy 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上的電話會議時長為 45 分鐘,將透過電話和網路廣播進行現場直播,網路廣播可以在我們網站 www.nrg.com 的投資者部分的演示和網路廣播下找到。

  • Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law.

    請注意,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是基於我們認為截至目前合理的假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們敦促大家回顧今天演示中的安全港以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素。除非法律要求,否則我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。

  • In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation.

    此外,我們將參考公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。有關我們的非公認會計原則財務指標以及與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節的信息,請參閱今天的演示文稿。

  • And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Larry Coben, NRG's Chair and CEO.

    現在,我將把電話轉給 NRG 董事長兼執行長 Larry Coben。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined today by Bruce Chung, our CFO; and Rashesh Patel, Head of NRG Consumer, who will share an exciting update on our virtual power plant initiative. Other members of our management team are also on the call and available to answer questions.

    謝謝你,凱文,大家早安。今天我們的財務長 Bruce Chung 也加入了我的行列。 NRG Consumer 主管 Rashesh Patel 將分享我們虛擬發電廠計劃的令人興奮的最新動態。我們管理團隊的其他成員也會接聽電話並回答問題。

  • Let's start with today's 3 key messages as shown on Slide 4. First, our strong performance this year led us to raise our 2024 financial guidance by $175 million in late September, the second consecutive year we have surpassed our original earnings target. Today, we're reaffirming this elevated outlook for 2024 and initiating strong guidance for 2025.

    讓我們從幻燈片4 所示的今天的3 個關鍵訊息開始。最初的獲利目標。今天,我們重申對 2024 年的展望,並啟動 2025 年的強力指引。

  • Second, we're excited to announce a strategic partnership with Renew Home and Google, supported by Google's AI platform to accelerate our virtual power plant effort. This partnership strengthens our ability to meet evolving customer needs and marks the beginning of our efforts to scale VPP.

    其次,我們很高興宣布與 Renew Home 和 Google 建立策略合作夥伴關係,並在 Google 人工智慧平台的支援下加速我們的虛擬發電廠工作。這種合作關係增強了我們滿足不斷變化的客戶需求的能力,並標誌著我們努力擴展 VPP 的開始。

  • Finally, we're enhancing our guidance framework by introducing adjusted EPS. We're also presenting a multiyear outlook supported by a new organic growth program and highlighting additional opportunities to exceed those targets and drive further shareholder value.

    最後,我們透過引入調整後的每股盈餘來增強我們的指導框架。我們還提出了由新的有機成長計劃支持的多年前景,並強調了超越這些目標並進一步推動股東價值的更多機會。

  • On Slide 5, let's review our 2024 performance and 2025 guidance. Our year-to-date results and increased guidance are driven by strong plant operations, effective supply risk management throughout the summer margin growth across all of our business segments and continued success in Smart Home. These results underscore the strength of our business model and position us exceptionally well for the future.

    在投影片 5 上,我們回顧 2024 年的表現和 2025 年的指引。我們今年迄今的業績和指引的增加是由強勁的工廠運營、整個夏季所有業務部門的有效供應風險管理和利潤增長以及智慧家庭的持續成功所推動的。這些結果凸顯了我們業務模式的優勢,並為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

  • I'd also like to note that in response to investor feedback, we are now including all amortization costs related to Vivint Smart Home and retail home energy in the depreciation and amortization line of the income statement. Bruce will provide more details and clear disclosures on this change, which is noncash and has no impact on our cash flow metrics or adjusted EPS. This update enhances transparency and simplifies financial reporting and modeling for our shareholders.

    我還想指出的是,為了回應投資者的回饋,我們現在將與 Vivint 智慧家庭和零售家庭能源相關的所有攤銷成本納入損益表的折舊和攤提項目中。布魯斯將提供有關這一變化的更多細節和明確披露,該變化是非現金的,對我們的現金流量指標或調整後的每股收益沒有影響。此更新提高了透明度並簡化了股東的財務報告和建模。

  • We're initiating 2025 guidance, now including adjusted EPS alongside our usual metrics of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth. For 2025, we expect adjusted EPS of $7.25, adjusted EBITDA of $3.85 billion and free cash flow before growth of $2.1 billion. This reflects a 14% increase in adjusted EPS from our raised 2024 guidance and a 28% increase from our initial 2024 guidance.

    我們正在啟動 2025 年指導,現在包括調整後每股收益以及調整後 EBITDA 和成長前自由現金流的常用指標。 2025 年,我們預計調整後每股盈餘為 7.25 美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 38.5 億美元,成長前自由現金流為 21 億美元。這反映了調整後每股收益較我們上調的 2024 年指引增長了 14%,較我們最初的 2024 年指引增長了 28%。

  • Our 2025 guidance incorporates the achievement of our key 2023 Investor Day commitments, reaching $550 million in run rate synergies, achieving investment-grade credit metrics and delivering 15% free cash flow before growth per share growth. This achievement is significant as our June 2023 projection of 15% to 20% free cash flow before growth per share growth was based on a 2025 share price of $46 or less than half today's trading price. Through operational improvement and excellence, accelerated growth and synergy achievement, we have stayed on and achieved this target.

    我們的 2025 年指導方針納入了 2023 年投資者日關鍵承諾的實現,運行率協同效應達到 5.5 億美元,實現投資級信用指標,並在每股增長之前提供 15% 的自由現金流。這項成就意義重大,因為我們對 2023 年 6 月每股成長前自由現金流的預測為 15% 至 20%,這是基於 2025 年股價 46 美元或不到今天交易價格的一半。透過營運改善和卓越、加速成長和實現協同效應,我們堅持並實現了這一目標。

  • Today, we are also announcing that we are increasing our share repurchase authorization by an additional $1 billion. In short, 2024 has been an outstanding year and 2025 will be even better. Market conditions are highly favorable our operations remain superb and our outlook has never been stronger. It's an exciting time to be part of NRG.

    今天,我們也宣布將股票回購授權增加 10 億美元。總之,2024年是優秀的一年,2025年會更好。市場條件非常有利,我們的營運依然出色,我們的前景也從未如此強勁。成為 NRG 的一員是一個令人興奮的時刻。

  • On Slide 6, with the introduction of adjusted EPS, we're presenting our multiyear growth outlook, targeting at least a 10% CAGR through 2029 based on our raised 2024 guidance. Starting from our original 2024 guidance, this raise would approach 13%, reflecting the extraordinary operations and opportunities in our business. To provide a clear view of our EPS drivers, we've divided this outlook into 2 categories, organic business earnings growth and capital allocation. The business earnings portion only incorporates the organic growth plans of our core businesses with no value added for such opportunities as the tightening of the Texas power market or data centers. I will return to these additional opportunities shortly.

    在投影片 6 中,隨著調整後每股盈餘的引入,我們展示了我們的多年成長前景,目標是根據我們上調的 2024 年指導,到 2029 年複合年增長率至少為 10%。從我們最初的 2024 年指導開始,這一漲幅將接近 13%,反映了我們業務中非凡的營運和機會。為了清楚了解我們的每股盈餘驅動因素,我們將這一前景分為兩類:有機業務獲利成長和資本配置。業務收益部分僅包含我們核心業務的有機成長計劃,沒有德州電力市場或資料中心收緊等機會帶來的附加價值。我很快就會回到這些額外的機會。

  • Our long-term outlook includes an annualized $750 million in adjusted EBITDA organic growth through 2029, largely driven by our consumer businesses. Key drivers include customer growth in Smart Home, initiatives to increase home energy wallet share and advancements in our virtual power plant. We're also strategically expanding our commercial and industrial energy services footprint.

    我們的長期前景包括到 2029 年,調整後 EBITDA 的年化有機成長將達到 7.5 億美元,這主要是由我們的消費業務推動的。主要驅動因素包括智慧家庭的客戶成長、增加家庭能源錢包份額的舉措以及我們虛擬發電廠的進步。我們也策略性地擴大我們的商業和工業能源服務足跡。

  • In terms of capital allocation, we plan to return $8.8 billion to shareholders with $7.1 billion dedicated to share repurchases. Looking at potential opportunities to significantly exceed this outlook, we have not factored in any rise in Texas power prices. which we've held at $47 through 2029, despite expected market tightening from growing demand. We have provided growth sensitivities for your additional visibility into our gearing and to allow our investors to reflect on and sensitize their expectations.

    在資本配置方面,我們計劃向股東返還88億美元,其中71億美元用於股票回購。在考慮大幅超越這一前景的潛在機會時,我們沒有考慮德克薩斯州電價的任何上漲。儘管需求成長預計市場將趨緊,但到 2029 年我們仍將其價格維持在 47 美元。我們提供了成長敏感性,以便您進一步了解我們的負債情況,並讓我們的投資者反思並提高他們的期望。

  • Our projections also include contributions from our 21 site development portfolio and 2 shovel-ready Texas brownfield projects that were not selected for the Texas Energy Fund. Each of these represents additional upside to our baseline growth expectations. I'll explore these elements in greater depth over the next 2 slides. Our long-term outlook emphasizes the strength of our platform and shows that we're well positioned to capture emerging opportunities in our sector.

    我們的預測還包括我們 21 個場地開發組合和 2 個未入選德克薩斯州能源基金的已準備就緒的德克薩斯州棕地項目的貢獻。每一項都比我們的基準成長預期有額外的上升空間。我將在接下來的兩張投影片中更深入地探討這些元素。我們的長期前景強調了我們平台的實力,並表明我們處於有利地位,可以抓住我們行業的新興機會。

  • Moving to Slide 7. Let's break down our $750 million growth plan, driven by disciplined investments in high-value initiatives. Our growth is expected in each of our primary businesses. Around 30% from home energy, 50% from Smart Home and 20% from commercial and industrial energy.

    轉向幻燈片 7。我們的每項主要業務都有望實現成長。約 30% 來自家庭能源,50% 來自智慧家居,20% 來自商業和工業能源。

  • In home energy, we're focused on leveraging our strong Texas market share to expand wallet with our customers. We have been testing a Home Essentials bundle that provides energy customers added value while increasing margin and retention, and the results have been very encouraging. This initiative also enhances our ability to scale our virtual power plant offering. We will provide details of these initiatives later on in's the presentation.

    在家庭能源方面,我們專注於利用我們強大的德州市場份額來擴大客戶的錢包。我們一直在測試家庭必需品捆綁包,該捆綁包為能源客戶提供附加價值,同時提高利潤和保留率,結果非常令人鼓舞。這項措施也增強了我們擴展虛擬發電廠產品的能力。我們將在稍後的演示中提供這些舉措的詳細資訊。

  • For Smart Home, growth is driven primarily by continued customer base expansion which we have a strong record of achieving historically. We will also attract a broader segment of customers through new and less expensive bundles.

    對於智慧家庭來說,成長主要是由持續的客戶群擴張所推動的,我們在歷史上取得了良好的記錄。我們還將透過新的、更便宜的捆綁包吸引更廣泛的客戶群。

  • In Commercial and Industrial Energy and NRG business, we're enhancing our platform by incorporating AI into both sales and customer care, which will increase speed, improve quality and reduce costs. We're also expanding in our existing markets by offering advanced products such as load management and reduced carbon options. Additionally, we're broadening our highly successful strategic client services for both electric and natural gas customers, resulting in incrementally higher unit margins.

    在商業和工業能源以及 NRG 業務中,我們正在透過將人工智慧納入銷售和客戶服務來增強我們的平台,這將提高速度、提高品質並降低成本。我們還透過提供負載管理和減少碳選項等先進產品來擴展現有市場。此外,我們正在擴大針對電力和天然氣客戶的非常成功的策略客戶服務,從而逐步提高單位利潤。

  • To meet our $750 million annualized EBITDA target, we plan to invest up to $1.6 billion over the next 5 years. That's the total investment, implying return on investments approaching 50%. We expect these initiatives to convert to free cash flow before growth at a rate of approximately 90%. These initiatives align with our 80/20 capital allocation framework, reinforcing our commitment to you of disciplined high-return growth. I'm very confident that we will meet and likely exceed these base targets. I look forward to keeping you updated on our progress.

    為了實現 7.5 億美元的年度 EBITDA 目標,我們計劃在未來 5 年內投資高達 16 億美元。這是總投資,這意味著投資回報率接近 50%。我們預計這些措施將以約 90% 的速度轉化為成長前的自由現金流。這些舉措與我們的 80/20 資本分配框架一致,強化了我們對您嚴格的高回報成長的承諾。我非常有信心我們將達到並可能超越這些基本目標。我期待著向您通報我們的最新進展。

  • Now let's look at some of our other opportunities on Slide 8. On the left, we show our 2025 Texas generation open gross margin sensitivity to various around-the-clock power price scenarios. This analysis assumes stable natural gas prices and normal weather conditions. For further details on multiple hedging scenarios, please refer to the appendix.

    現在讓我們看看幻燈片 8 上的一些其他機會。此分析假設天然氣價格穩定且天氣條件正常。有關多種對沖場景的更多詳細信息,請參閱附錄。

  • This highlights the substantial value potential of our Texas generation under different price scenarios. As markets tightened due to rising demand, previously uneconomic generation can become not only economic but highly profitable. The table also highlights the asymmetrical nature of our gearing to power price fluctuations.

    這凸顯了我們德州世代在不同價格情況下的巨大價值潛力。隨著需求成長導致市場緊縮,以前不經濟的發電不僅可以變得經濟,而且可以帶來高利潤。表中也強調了我們對電力價格波動的槓桿作用的不對稱性。

  • Texas remains the country's most attractive power market, driving major demand growth. For instance, the largest Houston transmission company recently reported an 8-gigawatt Q of data center demand, a 700% increase from pre-summer levels.

    德州仍然是該國最具吸引力的電力市場,推動了主要需求的成長。例如,休士頓最大的輸電公司最近報告稱,資料中心需求量為 8 吉瓦,比夏季前的水準成長了 700%。

  • By comparison, Northern Virginia, the largest U.S. data center market, has a total installed capacity of around half that. This demonstrates the kind of structural load growth in Texas that could drive significant value beyond our base case.

    相較之下,美國最大的資料中心市場北維吉尼亞州的總裝置容量只有其一半左右。這表明德州的結構荷載成長可能會帶來超出我們基本假設的巨大價值。

  • On the right, we feature our portfolio of 21 development sites at current or former power plants, all located in competitive markets. These sites offer desirable attributes and key infrastructure, making them ideal for projects that prioritize speed to market.

    右側展示了我們現有或前身發電廠的 21 個開發場地組合,全部位於競爭激烈的市場中。這些站點提供了理想的屬性和關鍵基礎設施,使其成為優先考慮上市速度的項目的理想選擇。

  • In Texas, we also continue to evaluate the best use for our 2 shovel-ready brownfield projects that total 1.1 gigawatts in capacity. Since they were not selected under the Texas Energy funds 1 asset per developer allocation, we have the flexibility to explore other value-enhancing options for these projects such as directing them to hyperscalers. Together, these opportunities represent 2 of the many high-quality tangible path to creating additional value well beyond our baseline expectations.

    在德州,我們也繼續評估 2 個總裝置容量為 1.1 吉瓦的已準備就緒的棕地專案的最佳用途。由於它們沒有在德克薩斯能源基金每個開發商分配 1 項資產的情況下被選中,因此我們可以靈活地為這些項目探索其他增值選項,例如將它們引導給超大規模企業。總之,這些機會代表了創造遠遠超出我們基準預期的額外價值的眾多高品質切實途徑中的兩個。

  • On Slide 9, we outline what this means for the substantial cash generation we anticipate in the coming years. Our capital allocation plan balances disciplined growth with substantial capital returns to drive sustained value well into the future.

    在幻燈片 9 中,我們概述了這對我們預計未來幾年產生的大量現金意味著什麼。我們的資本配置計劃在嚴格的成長與豐厚的資本回報之間取得平衡,以推動未來的持續價值。

  • Our growth initiatives exceed our hurdle rates, and we invest only where we see exceptional value. Importantly, these investments also exceed the implied return of repurchasing our own stock, which currently trades at a low teens free cash flow yield. That is an extraordinary value, in my view.

    我們的成長計劃超出了我們的最低門檻,我們只投資於我們認為具有特殊價值的領域。重要的是,這些投資也超過了回購我們自己的股票的隱含回報,目前該股票的自由現金流收益率較低。在我看來,這是一個非凡的價值。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Rajesh Patel, the Head of NRG Consumer, who will provide an exciting update on our virtual power plant initiatives.

    接下來,讓我將其交給 NRG Consumer 主管 Rajesh Patel,他將提供有關我們虛擬發電廠計劃的令人興奮的最新資訊。

  • Rasesh Patel - CCO

    Rasesh Patel - CCO

  • Thank you, Larry. Turning to Slide 10. I am thrilled to announce our strategic partnership with Renew Home and Google to develop a 1 gigawatt residential virtual power plant or VPP in Texas. This partnership brings together leaders across the energy and consumer technology industries to develop an innovative energy management solution for NRG and our customers.

    謝謝你,拉里。轉向幻燈片 10。這項合作關係匯集了能源和消費科技產業的領導者,為 NRG 和我們的客戶開發創新的能源管理解決方案。

  • Our intention is to combine NRG's consumer reach and supply management expertise with Renew Homes' residential demand response capabilities and Google's advanced AI technology. This will enable us to deploy smart thermostats and other devices that will allow our customers to optimize their energy use and save money while enhancing the stability and flexibility of our supply strategy and the Texas grid.

    我們的目的是將 NRG 的消費者影響力和供應管理專業知識與 Renew Homes 的住宅需求響應能力和 Google 的先進人工智慧技術相結合。這將使我們能夠部署智慧恆溫器和其他設備,使我們的客戶能夠優化其能源使用並節省資金,同時增強我們的供應策略和德州電網的穩定性和靈活性。

  • On Slide 11, you will find the key components of our partnership. We will develop a compelling personalized energy management platform that provides near real-time dispatch of capacity at a fraction of the cost of a generation plant.

    在投影片 11 中,您將找到我們合作夥伴關係的關鍵組成部分。我們將開發一個引人注目的個人化能源管理平台,以發電廠成本的一小部分提供近乎即時的容量調度。

  • Renew Home will provide the demand response capabilities and will fund a significant portion of customer acquisition costs, minimizing NRG's capital outlay. This collaboration also positions NRG as the partner for all new Google Nest DPP enrollments in Texas. NRG will manage the customer relationship, experience and dispatch of VPP events.

    Renew Home 將提供需求響應能力,並將為大部分客戶獲取成本提供資金,從而最大限度地減少 NRG 的資本支出。此次合作也使 NRG 成為德州所有新 Google Nest DPP 註冊的合作夥伴。 NRG 將管理 VPP 活動的客戶關係、體驗和調度。

  • As illustrated in the VPP capital efficiency metrics at the bottom left of the slide, this is an economically attractive approach to supplementing our generation portfolio. The upfront investment is roughly 1/10 of a new peaker plant while delivering an IRR greater than 50%, which is significantly higher than traditional alternatives. On the right-hand side of the page, you can see our plan to scale this program with the goal of reaching 650 megawatts of dispatchable capacity by 2030 and a gigawatt by 2035.

    正如幻燈片左下角的 VPP 資本效率指標所示,這是補充我們發電組合的一種經濟上有吸引力的方法。前期投資約為新建峰化裝置的 1/10,同時 IRR 高於 50%,明顯高於傳統替代方案。在頁面右側,您可以看到我們擴展該計劃的計劃,目標是到 2030 年達到 650 兆瓦的可調度容量,到 2035 年達到 1 吉瓦的可調度容量。

  • Now let's turn to Slide 12, where we outline our strategy for bringing the virtual power plant program to market with an exciting new offering. To accelerate our VPP efforts in Texas, we're introducing the Home Essentials bundle, which includes a Vivint smart thermostat, doorbell camera and professional installation, all provided at no cost to customers enrolled in a VPP plan as long, as they remain an NRG Energy customer.

    現在讓我們轉向投影片 12,其中我們概述了透過令人興奮的新產品將虛擬發電廠計畫推向市場的策略。為了加速我們在德克薩斯州的VPP 工作,我們推出了Home Essentials 捆綁包,其中包括Vivint 智能恆溫器、門鈴攝像頭和專業安裝,只要加入VPP 計劃的客戶只要仍然是NRG,所有這些都免費提供給他們能源客戶。

  • Should they choose to leave, they can continue to receive the smart home services for a monthly fee of $14.99, allowing customers to continue enjoying the benefits of smart home while protecting our investment in their experience. We have tested this new value proposition with select energy customers in Texas and the results have been very encouraging.

    如果他們選擇離開,他們可以繼續接受智慧家庭服務,每月費用為 14.99 美元,讓客戶繼續享受智慧家庭的好處,同時保護我們在他們的體驗上的投資。我們已經與德州的部分能源客戶測試了這個新的價值主張,結果非常令人鼓舞。

  • In our pilot, we're seeing strong adoption of this offer and a step change in customer engagement, with the average household using our Smart Home app more than 160 per month. Moreover, 20% of these customers have opted to purchase additional smart home products and services that generate incremental recurring revenue.

    在我們的試點中,我們看到這項服務得到了廣泛採用,客戶參與度也發生了巨大變化,平均每月使用我們智慧家庭應用程式的家庭超過 160 個。此外,其中 20% 的客戶選擇購買額外的智慧家庭產品和服務,產生增量經常性收入。

  • Over time, we see this bundle becoming a powerful entry point that will deliver enhanced value to customers, build scale for VPP and encourage customers to explore a broader suite of smart home services. We are leveraging our strong market share in Texas to expand our share of wallet with customers with Renew Home co-funding up to $150 of customer acquisition costs through our VPP partnership.

    隨著時間的推移,我們看到該捆綁包將成為一個強大的切入點,它將為客戶提供更高的價值,擴大 VPP 的規模,並鼓勵客戶探索更廣泛的智慧家庭服務套件。我們正在利用我們在德克薩斯州強大的市場份額來擴大我們在客戶中的份額,並透過我們的 VPP 合作夥伴關係與 Renew Home 共同資助高達 150 美元的客戶獲取成本。

  • This go-to-market strategy focuses on making smart energy solutions accessible, valuable and deeply engaging. We're meeting our customers where they are with solutions that empower them to take control of their home and energy experiences while strengthening their relationship with NRG. We will make home-based essentials broadly available in Texas, Spring 2025.

    這項進入市場策略的重點是使智慧能源解決方案變得易於使用、有價值且具有深度吸引力。我們正在與客戶見面,提供解決方案,使他們能夠掌控自己的家庭和能源體驗,同時加強他們與 NRG 的關係。我們將於 2025 年春季在德克薩斯州廣泛提供家庭必需品。

  • Moving to Slide 13, let's take a closer look at how our virtual power plant generates value and deliver strong economics through 2 distinct value streams, consumer and supply. On the consumer side, where we retain 100% of the economic benefits, we expect margin uplift in increased tenure for customers adopting the Homebase Essentials bundle as well as incremental recurring revenue from customers opting for additional Smart Home services.

    轉向幻燈片 13,讓我們仔細看看我們的虛擬發電廠如何透過兩個不同的價值流(消費者和供應)產生價值並提供強大的經濟效益。在消費者方面,我們保留了 100% 的經濟效益,我們預計採用 Homebase Essentials 捆綁包的客戶的使用期限會增加,利潤率會提高,並且選擇額外智慧家庭服務的客戶會增加經常性收入。

  • The home energy industry relative to other consumer services, has elevated customer churn, and we expect this initiative to improve customer retention due to the enhanced value, engagement and savings from this integrated offering.

    與其他消費服務相比,家庭能源產業的客戶流失率較高,我們預期此措施將提高客戶保留率,因為此整合產品提高了價值、參與度並節省了成本。

  • On the supply side, where we retain over half of the economic benefit, we've provided an illustrative breakdown that shows how VPP creates margin opportunity based on the number of events per summer and the implied in-the-money power price. Beyond Direct value, this asset also provides critical risk mitigation, allowing us to dispatch the BTP and to further stabilize our supply portfolio during periods of volatility.

    在供應方面,我們保留了一半以上的經濟效益,我們提供了一個說明性的細分,顯示 VPP 如何根據每年夏季的事件數量和隱含的價內電價創造利潤機會。除了直接價值之外,該資產還提供了關鍵的風險緩解功能,使我們能夠在波動期間調度 BTP 並進一步穩定我們的供應組合。

  • At scale for a 650-megawatt VPP, we anticipate approximately $110 million in annual recurring margin for NRG, $80 million from consumer value and $30 million from supply value. Looking ahead to a 1 gigawatt VPP, we project the total annual incremental margin to exceed $160 million making VPP a highly profitable and flexible asset that strengthens both our financial and operational resilience.

    對於 650 兆瓦 VPP 的規模,我們預計 NRG 的年度經常性利潤約為 1.1 億美元,其中 8,000 萬美元來自消費者價值,3,000 萬美元來自供應價值。展望 1 吉瓦 VPP,我們預計年度增量利潤總額將超過 1.6 億美元,使 VPP 成為高利潤且靈活的資產,增強我們的財務和營運彈性。

  • If Texas supply becomes more constrained in the coming years, as many expect, the value to NRG and our customers will only increase. I look forward to keeping you updated on our progress as we execute this plan.

    如果德州的供應在未來幾年變得更加緊張,正如許多人預期的那樣,NRG 和我們的客戶的價值只會增加。我期待在執行該計劃時向您通報我們的最新進展。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Bruce to provide the financial review.

    這樣,我將把它交給布魯斯來提供財務審查。

  • Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Rashesh. Before I discuss our third quarter results, I'd like to provide a few updates on our key financial performance and valuation metrics.

    謝謝你,拉什什。在討論我們第三季的業績之前,我想提供一些有關我們的關鍵財務表現和估值指標的最新資訊。

  • As you can see on the slide, we are introducing adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share as part of our reporting framework. These metrics offer additional context for NRG's profitability and growth, capturing both underlying business growth driven by investments into our platform as well as the impact of our robust capital allocation program.

    正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣,我們將引入調整後的淨利潤和調整後的每股收益作為我們報告框架的一部分。這些指標為 NRG 的獲利能力和成長提供了額外的背景,捕捉了我們平台投資驅動的基本業務成長以及我們強大的資本配置計畫的影響。

  • For 2024, we are on track to deliver $1.3 billion of adjusted net income, equivalent to $6.35 per share of adjusted EPS. The midpoint of our raised adjusted EPS guidance represents a 12% increase over the midpoint of our original guidance, reflecting the strong business performance.

    到 2024 年,我們預計將實現 13 億美元的調整後淨利潤,相當於調整後每股收益 6.35 美元。我們上調的調整後每股盈餘指引的中點比我們最初指引的中點增加了 12%,反映了強勁的業務表現。

  • We are pleased to provide these additional tools for investors to use in their evaluation of the investment merits of NRG. We believe these new metrics, coupled with our pre-existing metrics, such as free cash flow before growth per share will continue to shine a spotlight on NRG's attractive valuation. We will continue to provide adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth alongside these 2 new disclosures for the foreseeable future.

    我們很高興為投資者提供這些額外的工具,讓他們評估 NRG 的投資優點。我們相信,這些新指標,加上我們現有的指標(例如每股成長前的自由現金流)將繼續成為 NRG 有吸引力的估值的焦點。在可預見的未來,我們將繼續提供調整後的 EBITDA 和成長前的自由現金流以及這兩項新的揭露。

  • Going forward and including today's third quarter results, adjusted EBITDA has been updated to recast all amortization of capitalized customer acquisition costs, from SG&A and cost of operations into the depreciation and amortization line item.

    展望未來,包括今天的第三季業績,調整後的 EBITDA 已更新,以重新計算資本化客戶獲取成本的所有攤銷,從 SG&A 和營運成本到折舊和攤銷行項目。

  • This change addresses a point of common confusion that investors have given us direct feedback on. This is part of our ongoing commitment to provide better visibility into our businesses and simplify the modeling process. More details are available in our 10-Q as well as in the Reg G tables appended to this presentation and this morning's press release.

    這項變更解決了投資人向我們直接回饋的一個常見困惑點。這是我們持續致力於提供更好的業務可見度並簡化建模流程的一部分。更多詳細資訊請參閱我們的 10-Q 以及本簡報和今天上午的新聞稿所附的 Reg G 表。

  • As you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, this change results in an upward adjustment to the midpoint of our 2024 guidance by $130 million from $3.56 billion to $3.73 billion. We have accordingly recast adjusted EBITDA for historical periods to conform with this methodology and to allow for direct comparison of our results across reporting periods. This is simply a geography change of noncash items and therefore, has no impact on any of our reported free cash flow before growth or adjusted EPS metrics and outlook.

    正如您在幻燈片右側看到的那樣,這一變化導致我們 2024 年指導的中點上調 1.3 億美元,從 35.6 億美元調整到 37.3 億美元。我們相應地重新調整了歷史時期的調整後 EBITDA,以符合這種方法,並允許直接比較我們在各個報告期間的結果。這只是非現金項目的地理變化,因此對我們報告的成長前自由現金流或調整後每股盈餘指標和前景沒有影響。

  • Turning to Slide 16. NRG delivered another strong quarter of financial and operational performance, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.055 billion, an increase of $68 million over the third quarter of the prior year. Texas delivered $584 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, $32 million higher than Q3 of 2023. When adjusted for asset sales executed in 2023, our outperformance was approximately $80 million. This improvement reflects the strength and resilience of our integrated platform.

    轉向幻燈片 16。德州本季調整後 EBITDA 為 5.84 億美元,比 2023 年第三季高出 3,200 萬美元。這項改進反映了我們整合平台的實力和彈性。

  • Unlike last year, Texas was marked by a lack of power price volatility and generally lower pricing despite warm temperatures. Our integrated supply strategy and the ability to turn off units during periods of low pricing enabled us to maximize margins as we served our retail load. The ability to cycle our plants on and off as part of our overall supply strategy is what gives us confidence in delivering consistent financial results through a variety of market conditions.

    與去年不同的是,德州的電價波動較小,儘管氣溫溫暖,但電價普遍較低。我們的綜合供應策略以及在低價期間關閉設備的能力使我們能夠在服務零售負載時實現利潤最大化。作為我們整體供應策略的一部分,我們能夠循環啟動和關閉工廠,這讓我們有信心在各種市場條件下提供一致的財務表現。

  • Our East West and Services segments also demonstrated improved year-over-year outperformance. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $214 million, representing an $18 million increase from the prior year. This improvement was primarily driven by lower power and natural gas supply costs, resulting in margin expansion and an increase in average customer counts of 7%.

    我們的東西部和服務部門的表現也比去年同期有所改善。該季度調整後 EBITDA 為 2.14 億美元,比上年增加 1,800 萬美元。這項改善主要是由於電力和天然氣供應成本降低,導致利潤率擴大和平均客戶數量增加 7%。

  • Finally, our Smart Home segment delivered $257 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, an $18 million increase from the prior year. This was driven by mid-single-digit growth in our subscriber count and continued net service margin expansion of 6%, reflecting the embedded operating leverage of the business as the subscriber base continues to grow.

    最後,我們的智慧家庭部門本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.57 億美元,比前一年增加 1,800 萬美元。這是由我們的用戶數量實現中個位數增長以及 6% 的淨服務利潤率持續增長推動的,反映出隨著用戶群持續增長,該業務的嵌入式營運槓桿。

  • As you can see on the table, we have added disclosures for adjusted net income and adjusted EPS. For the third quarter, NRG produced $393 million of adjusted net income, equivalent to $1.90 of earnings per share. This represents a 21% increase over Q3 2023 results, primarily driven by higher gross margin and share repurchases.

    正如您在表格中看到的,我們增加了調整後淨利潤和調整後每股收益的揭露。第三季度,NRG 調整後淨利為 3.93 億美元,相當於每股收益 1.90 美元。這比 2023 年第三季的業績成長了 21%,這主要是由於毛利率提高和股票回購所致。

  • Free cash flow before growth for the quarter was $815 million, a $460 million increase over Q3 2023. This reflects higher gross margin, favorable working capital and lower CapEx given the completion of the Paris restoration work in 2023.

    本季成長前的自由現金流為8.15 億美元,比2023 年第三季增加4.6 億美元。 。

  • Lastly, we are reaffirming our revised 2024 financial guidance and have provided our guidance ranges across all the key reporting metrics, including adjusted net income and adjusted EPS.

    最後,我們重申修訂後的 2024 年財務指引,並提供了涵蓋所有關鍵報告指標的指引範圍,包括調整後淨利和調整後每股盈餘。

  • Turning to 2024 capital allocation on Slide 17. We continue to deliver on our capital allocation priorities. There are only a few minor changes to the capital allocation waterfall from our second quarter earnings call. On our last earnings call, we announced an agreement to sell our Airtron HVAC business. That transaction closed in late September. As a result, we are updating the net cash proceeds from the Airtron sale to approximately $425 million. We are also increasing free cash flow before growth by $100 million.

    轉向投影片 17 上的 2024 年資本配置。從我們第二季的財報電話會議來看,資本配置瀑布只有一些細微的變化。在我們上次的財報電話會議上,我們宣布了一項出售 Airtron HVAC 業務的協議。該交易於九月下旬完成。因此,我們將 Airtron 出售的淨現金收益更新為約 4.25 億美元。我們還將成長前的自由現金流增加了 1 億美元。

  • For liability management, preferred dividends, we've reduced our 2024 allocation to $420 million from $602 million. Our aggressive debt reduction over the past few years, coupled with improved financial performance will result in achieving our target credit metrics by the end of 2024, a full year earlier than originally intended. As a result, we have reduced the amount of liability management we had intended to pursue in 2024 and have reallocated that cash to our remaining unallocated CAFA.

    對於負債管理和優先股股息,我們將 2024 年的分配從 6.02 億美元減少到 4.2 億美元。我們在過去幾年中積極削減債務,加上財務表現的改善,將導致我們在 2024 年底前實現我們的目標信貸指標,比原計劃提前了一整年。因此,我們減少了原定在 2024 年追求的負債管理金額,並將該現金重新分配給剩餘的未分配 CAFA。

  • We have increased our share repurchase total from $825 million to $925 million, which reflects the increase in our 2024 FCFbG guidance. Through October 31, we completed $544 million of repurchases, and we expect to complete the remaining repurchases by year-end.

    我們將股票回購總額從 8.25 億美元增加到 9.25 億美元,這反映了我們 2024 年 FCFbG 指引的增加。截至 10 月 31 日,我們完成了 5.44 億美元的回購,我們預計在年底前完成剩餘的回購。

  • Inclusive of our year-to-date activity, we have executed over $3.8 billion in share repurchases at an average price of around $50 since 2019, representing nearly 30% of our shares outstanding.

    包括今年迄今的活動在內,自 2019 年以來,我們已執行了超過 38 億美元的股票回購,平均價格約為 50 美元,占我們已發行股票的近 30%。

  • In our other investments, we have allocated $122 million for other growth, including updated spend associated with our ERCOT new build project. Finally, we expect to end 2024 with approximately $605 million of unallocated capital, which we have rolled into 2025 for application towards continued share buyback programs.

    在我們的其他投資中,我們為其他成長分配了 1.22 億美元,包括與我們的 ERCOT 新建項目相關的更新支出。最後,我們預計到 2024 年底將有約 6.05 億美元的未分配資本,我們已將其轉入 2025 年用於持續的股票回購計畫。

  • Turning to the next slide. We are excited to introduce our financial guidance for 2025. We are guiding 2025 full year adjusted EBITDA to a range of $3.725 billion to $3.975 billion, representing a midpoint of $3.85 billion or an 8% increase from our original 2024 guidance midpoint.

    轉到下一張投影片。我們很高興介紹2025 年的財務指引。 我們預計2025 年全年調整後EBITDA 範圍為37.25 億美元至39.75 億美元,相當於38.5 億美元的中點,比我們最初的2024 年指引中點增加8% 。

  • As you can see from the chart at the bottom, this is driven by the completion of our previously announced growth and cost synergy programs, margin expansion from higher power prices and partly offset by the lost EBITDA from the sale of Airtron.

    正如您從底部圖表中看到的那樣,這是由我們之前宣布的增長和成本協同計劃的完成、電價上漲帶來的利潤率擴張以及因出售 Airtron 造成的 EBITDA 損失部分抵消而推動的。

  • We are also guiding 2025 full year free cash flow before growth to a range of $1.975 billion to $2.225 billion, representing a midpoint of $2.1 billion, also an 8% increase over the midpoint of our original 2024 guidance. In addition to adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth, we are initiating guidance for adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share. For full year 2025, we are initiating guidance on adjusted net income to a range of $1.33 billion to $1.53 billion, representing a midpoint of $1.43 billion, and a range of $6.75 to $7.75 for adjusted EPS, representing a midpoint of $7.25 per share.

    我們也將成長前的 2025 年全年自由現金流指引範圍為 19.75 億美元至 22.25 億美元,即 21 億美元的中位數,也比我們最初的 2024 年指導值中位數成長 8%。除了調整後的 EBITDA 和成長前的自由現金流之外,我們還啟動了調整後淨利潤和調整後每股收益的指導。對於 2025 年全年,我們開始將調整後淨利潤指引為 13.3 億美元至 15.3 億美元,中位數為 14.3 億美元,調整後每股收益為 6.75 美元至 7.75 美元,中位數為每股 7.25 美元。

  • Moving to the next slide. We are providing a 5-year road map with the major drivers of our adjusted EPS and free cash flow before growth investment outlook on a per share basis. As you can see on the slide, we are targeting long-term adjusted EPS and FCFbG per share growth of greater than 10%. These growth rates are pegged against our recently increased 2024 guidance. More modeling disclosures can be found in the appendix of today's presentation.

    轉到下一張投影片。我們提供了一份五年路線圖,其中包含調整後每股盈餘和自由現金流的主要驅動因素,而不考慮每股成長投資前景。正如您在幻燈片中看到的,我們的目標是長期調整後每股收益和 FCFbG 成長超過 10%。這些成長率與我們最近提高的 2024 年指引值掛鉤。更多建模資訊可以在今天演示的附錄中找到。

  • Our 5-year outlook is underpinned by visible organic growth, resulting in $750 million of incremental run rate adjusted EBITDA, and a robust capital return program of nearly $9 billion over the 2025 to 2029 period. I'd also highlight that this 5-year outlook assumes flat power pricing and does not include any of the additional upside opportunities Larry touched on earlier.

    我們的 5 年展望以可見的有機成長為基礎,即 2025 年至 2029 年期間,調整後的 EBITDA 增量將達到 7.5 億美元,資本回報計畫將達到近 90 億美元。我還要強調的是,這個 5 年展望假設電價持平,並且不包括拉里之前提到的任何額外的上行機會。

  • As you can see on the slide, our organic growth plan and share repurchases comprised nearly $4 of EPS growth and nearly $6.50 of FCFeG per share growth. Offsetting this growth is an increase in taxes as available tax credits expire in 2025 and as NRG continues to generate strong earnings that utilize its NOL balance. In addition to taxes, we are projecting the impact of higher interest costs on earnings and free cash flow growth as maturing low-cost debt is refinanced at higher rates.

    正如您在幻燈片中看到的,我們的有機成長計劃和股票回購包括近 4 美元的 EPS 成長和近 6.50 美元的 FCFeG 每股成長。由於可用稅收抵免將於 2025 年到期,並且 NRG 繼續利用其 NOL 餘額產生強勁的收入,因此稅收增加抵消了這一增長。除了稅收之外,我們還預計,隨著到期的低成本債務以更高的利率進行再融資,利息成本上升將對獲利和自由現金流成長產生影響。

  • Turning to 2025 capital allocation on the next slide and starting on the left side of the chart, we are showing approximately $2.7 billion of cash available for allocation, which includes the carryover amounts from 2024. As I have already noted, we will achieve our target credit metrics earlier than originally forecasted. And as such, our liability management program in 2025 will be comprised of selling the convertible note hedge and preferred stock dividends.

    轉向下一張投影片中的2025 年資本配置,從圖表左側開始,我們顯示可供配置的現金約為27 億美元,其中包括2024 年的結轉金額。我們的目標信用指標早於最初預測。因此,我們 2025 年的負債管理計畫將包括出售可轉換票據對沖和優先股股息。

  • As you can see, the primary focus of our 2025 capital allocation activity will continue to be share repurchases with $1.36 billion planned for 2025. Together with the planned 8% increase in the common dividend to $1.76 per share, our total return of capital is currently expected to be about 85% of CAFA after liability management and integration costs. Importantly, for those keeping a scorecard, we are on track to significantly exceed the original return of capital commitment shared as part of our 2023 Investor Day with more than $4.5 billion to be returned from 2023 through 2025.

    正如您所看到的,我們2025 年資本配置活動的主要重點將繼續是股票回購,計劃在2025 年回購13.6 億美元。我們的總資本回報率為扣除負債管理和整合成本後,預計約為 CAFA 的 85%。重要的是,對於那些保留記分卡的人來說,我們預計將大大超過作為 2023 年投資者日的一部分共享的原始資本承諾回報,從 2023 年到 2025 年將回報超過 45 億美元。

  • Given our outstanding performance relative to the 2023 Investor Day plan, our Board of Directors approved an increase in total authorization for repurchases from $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion. As of October 31, approximately $2 billion is remaining under the total authorization inclusive of this increase.

    鑑於我們相對於 2023 年投資者日計畫的出色表現,我們的董事會批准將回購授權總額從 27 億美元增加到 37 億美元。截至 10 月 31 日,包括本次增加在內的授權總額尚剩餘約 20 億美元。

  • In 2025, we have allocated $165 million to other investments, which includes continued progress on our ERCOT newbuild program and investment in near-term actionable initiatives related to our long-term organic growth plan. Finally, we are showing $235 million of unallocated capital, which we will allocate over the course of 2025.

    到 2025 年,我們已分配 1.65 億美元用於其他投資,其中包括 ERCOT 新建項目的持續進展以及對與我們長期有機增長計劃相關的近期可行舉措的投資。最後,我們展示了 2.35 億美元的未分配資本,我們將在 2025 年分配這些資本。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to you, Larry.

    這樣,我會把它轉回給你,拉里。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Bruce. Turning to Slide 22. We've provided you today a detailed view of our compelling 5-year financial outlook enhanced with additional disclosures for clear insights into our earnings and growth trajectory.

    謝謝你,布魯斯。轉向幻燈片 22。

  • Our plan is simple, transparent and backed by durable recurring cash flows and a strong balance sheet. We're confident in achieving our long-term targets of at least 10% growth in adjusted EPS and free cash flow before growth per share. with numerous opportunities to significantly exceed these goals.

    我們的計劃簡單、透明,並以持久的經常性現金流和強大的資產負債表為後盾。我們有信心實現調整後每股盈餘和每股成長前自由現金流至少成長 10% 的長期目標。有大量機會顯著超越這些目標。

  • In closing, on Slide 23, 2024 has been another year of strong execution where we have delivered financial operation and capital allocation results well ahead of guidance and expectations. I'm exceptionally proud of the work of our 18,000 employees across all of our organization who have driven these results.

    最後,根據投影片 23,2024 年又是執行力強勁的一年,我們的財務營運和資本配置結果遠遠超出了指引和預期。我對整個組織 18,000 名員工的工作感到非常自豪,是他們推動了這些成果。

  • I'm deeply committed to driving NRG forward to creating additional significant shareholder value. We are seeing a long-term step change improvement in fundamentals across our platform. You can expect a continued and remaining heightened focus on operational excellence, prudent growth and being good stewards of our investors' capital. I have never been more excited about the potential of NRG than I am today. Thank you for your time and continued interest.

    我堅定地致力於推動 NRG 不斷創造額外的重要股東價值。我們看到整個平台的基本面發生了長期的逐步變化。您可以期待我們將繼續高度關注卓越營運、審慎成長以及成為投資者資本的良好管理者。我從來沒有像今天這樣對 NRG 的潛力感到如此興奮。感謝您的寶貴時間和持續關注。

  • Operator, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

    接線員,我們現在可以開通提問線路了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Shar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.

    沙爾‧普爾雷扎,古根漢合夥人。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey guys. Good morning. Good morning, sir. How are you all?

    嘿夥計們。早安.早上好,先生。你們都好嗎?

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

  • All right. Quite an update, Larry, quite an update. Let me just start just I want to touch on the process around the sites. I mean, some of your peers this week mentioned portfolio approaches to hyperscaler deals. You have the ability to provide a degree of additionality with the gas units. Is it still your plan to sort of update the Street in January? And how are you seeing -- are you seeing more interest in 1 region versus the other? Thanks.

    好的。拉里,這是一次重大的更新,一個重大的更新。讓我先談談網站周圍的流程。我的意思是,本週您的一些同行提到了超大規模交易的投資組合方法。您有能力透過氣體裝置提供一定程度的額外性。您還計劃在一月更新《華爾街日報》嗎?您如何看待—您是否發現某個地區比其他地區更感興趣?謝謝。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And yes. No, sorry, sorry.

    是的。是的。不,對不起,對不起。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Worked to me before, by the way.

    順便說一句,以前為我工作過。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • It worked.

    它起作用了。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

  • I got to hide for the first time.

    我第一次必須躲起來。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sorry, we are going to provide an update, as we said, by the fourth quarter call. And we're seeing a lot of interest across our sites, both in PJM and in Texas, both in portfolio approaches and in individual approaches. Look, I think -- it's a very complex process, rapidly changing. People is -- we're still figuring out exactly what it is that we want.

    抱歉,正如我們所說,我們將在第四季度電話會議之前提供更新。我們在 PJM 和德克薩斯州的網站上看到了很多人對投資組合方法和個人方法感興趣。我認為,這是一個非常複雜的過程,而且變化很快。人們——我們仍在弄清楚我們到底想要什麼。

  • And I think by stepping back as we did and now diving back in, we're really in a position to optimize the value of what we have. So still super excited. We've done a lot of more site analysis, as you can see in the appendix here. And we look forward to updating you when that time comes.

    我認為,透過像我們所做的那樣後退一步,現在重新投入,我們確實能夠優化我們所擁有的價值。所以還是超興奮。正如您在此處的附錄中所看到的,我們已經進行了更多的網站分析。我們期待屆時為您提供最新消息。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Got it. And then as we get more disclosures, you plan on layering in the optionality into the numbers through time? Or how do we get an update?

    知道了。然後,隨著我們獲得更多披露,您計劃隨著時間的推移將可選性分層到數字中?或者我們如何獲得更新?

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean I think as we know what the numbers are, we will layer them in. Now remember how we talked about before, some of this may be things that we never ever disclosed because someone comes to us and they want an extra 1,000 megs of something, and then we decide we're going to build the plant and some hyperscalers may or may not want those 2 events tied together.

    我的意思是,我認為當我們知道這些數字是什麼時,我們會將它們分層。他們想要額外的1,000 兆一些事情,然後我們決定要建造工廠,一些超大規模企業可能希望也可能不希望將這兩個事件綁在一起。

  • So one of the ways that you may see that we're doing this is all of a sudden raising our estimates, raising our CAGR, all of those kind of things rather than one-off announcements could go either way, but that's where you'll see it.

    因此,你可能會看到我們這樣做的一種方式是突然提高我們的估計,提高我們的複合年增長率,所有這些事情而不是一次性的公告可能會發生任何一種情況,但這就是你的情況會看到的。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

  • All right. Perfect. And then just lastly, coming back to sort of the identified growth component of the plan. I appreciate, obviously, the breakdowns between the segments through '29. Some of these are obviously familiar to investors like the C&I margin, customer counts, but some aren't. Where do you see kind of the most room for variability within these 3 verticals? And then any color on cost to achieve?

    好的。完美的。最後,回到計劃中已確定的成長部分。顯然,我很欣賞 29 年各個細分市場之間的細分。其中一些指標顯然是投資者所熟悉的,例如 C&I 利潤率、客戶數量,但有些指標卻不熟悉。您認為這三個垂直領域中哪些地方變化空間最大?那麼要實現的成本有什麼不同嗎?

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Look, I think we've put out a plan that we're really excited to and feeling really good about signing up for -- and I think we see bias to the upside across all of these things. I mean if there's a world recession or something, are people going to move less than maybe purchase less energy or fewer smart home? Anything is possible, same in the industrial sector. But we feel really good share by what we've signed up here for.

    當然。聽著,我認為我們已經制定了一項計劃,我們對此感到非常興奮,並且對簽約感覺非常好——而且我認為我們看到了所有這些事情的好處。我的意思是,如果出現世界經濟衰退或其他什麼情況,人們的出行是否會減少,而購買的能源或智慧家庭的數量是否會減少?一切皆有可能,工業領域也是如此。但我們對我們在這裡註冊的內容感到非常滿意。

  • And to achieve this $750 million of annualized EBITDA over the next 5 years, we're going to invest $1.6 billion in total. So that's the cost to achieve.

    為了在未來 5 年內實現 7.5 億美元的年化 EBITDA,我們將總共投資 16 億美元。這就是實現目標的成本。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Perfect. I appreciate it. Congrats on the results, and it's good to see that Bruce was busy. -- appreciate it.

    完美的。我很感激。祝賀結果,很高興看到布魯斯很忙。 ——欣賞吧。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Once a year whether he needs to do or not, Shar.

    每年一次,無論他是否需要這樣做,莎爾。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Thank you, sir.

    謝謝您,先生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯,杰弗里斯。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

  • Hey, Larry team, good morning guys. Nice to chat. Just.

    嘿,拉里團隊,大家早安。很高興聊天。只是。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Following up a little bit on. Hey.

    稍微跟進一下。嘿。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

  • Larry, just following up a little bit on -- Good. Good. Good. Pleasure, guys. Nicely done. Maybe just following up a little bit on what Shar picked you on first here. Let me move the needle a little further on this in terms of just the update time line and more specifically, what that could look like as you think about what to set expectations around should we say, January or otherwise here, right?

    拉里,只是跟進一下——很好。好的。好的。很高興,夥計們。幹得好。也許只是跟進 Shar 首先在這裡挑選你的內容。讓我在更新時間軸方面進一步說明這一點,更具體地說,當您考慮如何設定期望時,我們應該說是一月還是其他時間,這可能會是什麼樣子,對吧?

  • Is it principally are your efforts geared principally towards this additionality in leveraging those 2 additional sites? Or are you still thinking, it seems earlier that you were principally focused on the Midwest portfolio, the site value there. We've seen a lot of excitement in the Midwest. Is that more where we should be thinking about it? Again, I know there's a 20-plus sites here. Tell me what permutation.

    您的努力主要是針對利用這兩個額外站點的額外性嗎?或者您是否還在想,您似乎早些時候主要關注中西部的投資組合,即那裡的網站價值。我們在中西部看到了很多令人興奮的事情。這是我們更應該思考的地方嗎?再說一次,我知道這裡有 20 多個網站。告訴我什麼排列。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think it's both. I mean I think what's happened is -- we were obviously still laser-focused on the 21 sites, and we remain so. But when the TEF decided that they were only going to give 1 loan per customer as they did, that we felt for us, that opened up the additionality potential for those 2 shovel-ready projects.

    我認為兩者都是。我的意思是,我認為發生的情況是——我們顯然仍然專注於 21 個地點,而且仍然如此。但是,當 TEF 決定他們只向每個客戶提供 1 筆貸款時,我們感受到了這一點,這為這 2 個準備就緒的項目開闢了額外潛力。

  • And so we kind of just put them into the mix post the TEF announcement, which was around the end of August, you'll recall. And there's, I think, a fair amount of interest because, as you know, and I think you've written about additionality is going to be critical going forward to the development of these kind of sites and to have shovel-ready additionality is rare.

    因此,我們只是在 TEF 公告發布後將它們納入其中,您可能還記得,那是在 8 月底左右。我認為,人們對此很感興趣,因為正如您所知,我認為您已經寫過關於額外性對於此類網站的開發至關重要,並且準備就緒的額外性非常罕見。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

  • Right. Yes, indeed. And actually, just to clarify that even with respect to TEF, would you expect TEF part 2 here to include those sites here? I mean, is sort of the idea to double dip, if you will, between TEF and additionality next year potentially, with the customers?

    正確的。是的,確實如此。實際上,只是想澄清一下,即使是關於 TEF,您是否希望 TEF 第 2 部分在這裡包含這些網站?我的意思是,如果您願意的話,是否有可能在明年的 TEF 和額外性之間與客戶實現雙倍成長?

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We haven't put out any guidance at all about TEF 2. We don't know if it's going to occur. So we're going to push forward right now as if there is no TEF 2 for those projects. But if that shows up, obviously, that's 1 option that we will consider. I don't know that you'll be able to double dip. We'll have to wait and see what the rules are, but we don't need to double dip to make those very attractive to somebody who's looking for additionality.

    我們還沒有發布任何有關 TEF 2 的指導。因此,我們現在將繼續推進,就好像這些項目沒有 TEF 2 一樣。但如果發生這種情況,顯然,這是我們會考慮的選擇。我不知道你能不能雙標。我們將不得不等待,看看規則是什麼,但我們不需要二次探底來使這些規則對尋求額外性的人非常有吸引力。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. Excellent. And VPP, out of that $1.6 billion, I think, how much has it cost you to do the VPP? I think you said $100 a kilowatt, so it's like $65 million for the 6 years [650].

    是的。好的。出色的。 VPP,我想,在這 16 億美元中,你們做 VPP 花了多少錢?我想你說的是每千瓦 100 美元,所以這 6 年相當於 6500 萬美元 [650]。

  • Rasesh Patel - CCO

    Rasesh Patel - CCO

  • Yes. One of the unique things about BPP is we don't have to wait to get the benefit as we acquire customers and put the assets to work. We actually start to realize the value. And so Think of it as we ramp up investment, and it stays below $50 million for us because we start to gain benefits from the deployed assets.

    是的。 BPP 的獨特之處之一是,我們無需等待即可在獲取客戶並將資產投入使用時獲得收益。我們實際上開始意識到它的價值。因此,當我們加強投資力度時,我們的投資額會保持在 5,000 萬美元以下,因為我們開始從部署的資產中獲益。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst

  • All right, excellent guys. Thank you so much. All the best.

    好吧,優秀的傢伙們。太感謝了。一切順利。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Then. Talk to you later.

    然後。我們回聊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Angie Sarsynski, Seaport.

    安吉·薩辛斯基,海港。

  • Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

    Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

  • It's kind of funny that does all these questions are focused on what else do you have even though the entire call was still good enough.

    有趣的是,所有這些問題都集中在你還有什麼,儘管整個通話仍然足夠好。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well said, Angie.

    說得好,安吉。

  • Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

    Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

  • The bars set really high. So my question is about the VPP virtual power plant. So we're seeing some cooling off in like battery investments in Texas, right? I mean there's this realization that existing batteries are starting to cannibalize on peak power prices and that eats into the pricing arbitrage that these batteries rely on. And so why shouldn't the same be true for the VPP?

    酒吧設置得非常高。所以我的問題是關於VPP虛擬電廠的。所以我們看到德州的電池投資有所降溫,對嗎?我的意思是,人們認識到現有電池正開始蠶食峰值電價,並侵蝕這些電池所依賴的定價套利。那麼為什麼 VPP 不應該如此呢?

  • And I understand that the biggest component of the profitability of this business is basically customer retention for the energy component is relatively small. But why shouldn't that be true that, in a sense, the curve gets sort of flatter and your ability to actually capture this additional energy benefit is lower?

    據我了解,該業務盈利能力的最大組成部分基本上是能源部分相對較小的客戶保留率。但是,從某種意義上說,曲線變得更加平坦,而您實際獲得這種額外能源效益的能力也降低了,為什麼不應該是這樣呢?

  • Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

    Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

  • Angie, it's Rob. And great observation. What I would tell you or remind you is because we serve consumer energy customers, we're always building our portfolio, and we're including that component that I called insurance, right, the options on the back end. What VPP does is it self provides that, right?

    安吉,這是羅布。和偉大的觀察力。我要告訴你或提醒你的是,因為我們為消費者能源客戶提供服務,我們一直在構建我們的產品組合,並且我們將我稱之為保險的組件包括在內,對吧,後端的選項。 VPP 的作用是它自己提供的,對嗎?

  • So as we think about the customer and as we think about how we ensure against an extreme event, the beauty of VPP is it is the perfect hedge for that kind of exposure. So when I look out the curve and as we're building the portfolio over time, what VPP does is it helps me manage the risks of a consumer energy business without having to go to a third party or dropping a lot of money to build massive peakers to meet that same obligation.

    因此,當我們考慮客戶並考慮如何防範極端事件時,VPP 的美妙之處在於它是針對此類風險的完美對沖。因此,當我觀察曲線並隨著時間的推移建立投資組合時,VPP 的作用是幫助我管理消費能源業務的風險,而無需去找第三方或投入大量資金來建立大規模的峰值者履行同樣的義務。

  • So I feel really good about the economics that we've got here. And as far as the long-term perspective, this is absolutely the best tool to manage the risk of a home-based energy book. Does that help?

    所以我對我們這裡的經濟狀況感到非常滿意。從長遠來看,這絕對是管理家庭能源書籍風險的最佳工具。這樣有幫助嗎?

  • Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

    Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

  • Okay. So basically, it's the most cost-effective way to hedge the gains spikes in super peaks, right? I mean, not that we've seen it. And that's my other question is that we -- I mean, we keep hearing those incredible announcements almost hard to even believe that they can be set with a straight face, right, 80 gig of load in Texas from Oncor.

    好的。所以基本上,這是對沖超級高峰時期收益飆升的最具成本效益的方式,對嗎?我的意思是,我們沒有看到它。我的另一個問題是,我們——我的意思是,我們不斷聽到那些令人難以置信的公告,幾乎很難相信它們可以在德克薩斯州 Oncor 的 80 GB 負載中嚴肅地設置。

  • I mean -- and yet, the curve is just not reacting at all. It's almost as if -- and again, could it be that this load is not going to impact '28 or even '29, and that's why we're not seeing any response? Or how can you actually reconcile the lack of response in forward power curves in Texas?

    我的意思是——然而,曲線根本沒有反應。這幾乎就像是——再說一遍,這個負載是否不會影響 28 年甚至 29 年,這就是為什麼我們沒有看到任何回應?或者如何真正解決德州前向功率曲線缺乏響應的問題?

  • Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

    Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

  • Yes. So I look at both of those things. And what I would tell you is that I am with you. I don't believe this curve reflects the load that we expect or the supply-demand picture that we would expect in the future. As far as how we think about it and whether or not it's going to show up, I believe that the load is coming. I don't know if it's 80 gigs and honestly, we don't need 80 gigs.

    是的。所以我關注這兩件事。我要告訴你的是,我和你在一起。我不認為這條曲線反映了我們預期的負載或我們預期的未來供需情況。至於我們如何看待它以及它是否會出現,我相信負載即將到來。我不知道是不是 80 場演出,老實說,我們不需要 80 場。

  • But part of the curve, remember, in the reaction inside of pricing is pretty shortsighted viewing or just looking a little bit end of history. This summer was a little less warm than last year. We didn't have any real price formation like we did last year and then everybody kind of lost sight of what could happen.

    但請記住,定價內部反應的部分曲線是相當短視的,或者只是看起來有點歷史的終結。今年夏天比去年稍微暖一點。我們沒有像去年那樣有任何實際的價格形成,然後每個人都忽略了可能發生的事情。

  • If you look into the future and you think about, okay, look, you just add a little bit of incremental load into the ERCOT market. You have a real opportunity given a renewables profile and call it just abnormal weather to really get price formation. And then everybody will be excited again and the curves will go to the moon and we'll be managing through it. It's -- you've seen this before. We've all seen it. I just don't think that these curves in '28, '29 and beyond reflect reality.

    如果你展望未來,你會想,好吧,看,你只需在 ERCOT 市場添加一點增量負載即可。考慮到再生能源的情況,你有一個真正的機會,並稱其為異常天氣,以真正形成價格。然後每個人都會再次興奮,曲線將到達月球,我們將成功度過它。這是——你以前見過這個。我們都見過。我只是不認為 28 年、29 年及以後的這些曲線反映了現實。

  • Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

    Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

  • Okay. And the last question. So maybe actually to both Bruce and Larry. So is there a free cash flow yield that below which you think that the share buyback just unwarranted and there is some other way of capital return or maybe M&A or some other strategy change?

    好的。最後一個問題。所以也許實際上對布魯斯和拉里來說都是如此。那麼,是否存在自由現金流收益率,低於該收益率,您認為股票回購是沒有根據的,並且存在其他資本回報方式,或者可能是併購或其他策略變化?

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Angie, there is one, but I don't think we're anywhere close to it. I mean, we're still in the double digits. So when we get to the mid-single digits, maybe we can have that kind of a look again depending on what the opportunities in the world looks like.

    安吉,有一個,但我認為我們離它還很遠。我的意思是,我們仍然處於兩位數。因此,當我們達到中個位數時,也許我們可以再次進行這種審視,這取決於世界上的機會是什麼樣的。

  • But right now, given the undervaluation of the stock, it's still a pretty high hurdle rate for us. But we all look forward to the day, and I'm sure you do too, that when the stock is trading so high that, that becomes a real question for us.

    但目前,鑑於該股被低估,對我們來說,它的門檻率仍然相當高。但我們都期待著這一天,我相信你也期待著這一天,當股票交易如此之高時,這對我們來說成為一個真正的問題。

  • Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

    Agnieszka Storozynski - Analyst

  • Yes, to infinity and beyond. Okay. Thank you to infinity.

    是的,到無窮遠甚至更遠。好的。感謝無限。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And beyond.

    甚至更遠。

  • Thank you, Angie.

    謝謝你,安吉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Sullivan, Wolfe Research.

    麥可‧沙利文,沃爾夫研究中心。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning.

    嘿,早安。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning. How are you?

    早安.你好嗎?

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Congrats on all the announcements here. Just -- I know -- so you gave this 10% plus and said it can vary year-to-year. But just to clarify, does that mean you can go below it, below 10% in some years? Or it's just going to be 10% or better in every year? And how much better can vary?

    祝賀這裡的所有公告。只是——我知道——所以你給了這 10% 以上,並說它每年都會有所不同。但澄清一下,這是否意味著你可以低於它,在某些年份低於 10%?還是每年都會有 10% 或更好?還能有多少更好的變化?

  • Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean, Mike, I think the reality is there are going to be -- there may be some years where it might go below. There might be some years where it's going to go above. But generally speaking, on a long-term basis. we see visibility around that plus 10% over the long term.

    是的。我的意思是,麥克,我認為現實情況是——可能在幾年內它可能會低於這個水平。可能有幾年它會超過這個水平。但總的來說,從長遠來看。我們認為從長遠來看,可見度會增加 10%。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Okay. And just specifically on that, so if we go to Slide 19 with the tax impact, does that all fall away in '26? So should we think of like '26 as being a lower year and then you kind of catch back up again in the out year?

    好的。特別是在這一點上,如果我們轉到幻燈片 19 來了解稅收影響,那麼這一切都會在 26 年消失嗎?那麼,我們是否應該將 26 年視為表現較低的一年,然後在接下來的一年中再次迎頭趕上?

  • Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. There is an incremental increase in the tax rate after '25 because of expiring tax credits. I think the way that we think about that growth is to the extent that there is a drag as a result of an incrementally higher tax rate, we probably see some business performance and business growth offsetting that drag.

    是的。由於稅收抵免到期,25 年後稅率逐漸增加。我認為,我們看待成長的方式是,由於稅率逐步提高而產生拖累,我們可能會看到一些業務績效和業務成長抵消了這種拖累。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Okay, okay. Great. And then, yes, the VPP announcement, good to see there. And maybe just -- is it fair to kind of bifurcate it as you broke out the $80 million component as being kind of more stable and then locked in?

    好吧,好吧。偉大的。然後,是的,VPP 公告,很高興看到那裡。也許只是——當你將 8000 萬美元的部分分解為更穩定然後鎖定時,將其分成兩部分是否公平?

  • And then that $30 million component, it looks like would have been a lot better in '23 if you get a summer like that. And then if we got this summer, maybe wouldn't have been around that level? Is that fair?

    然後那個 3000 萬美元的部分,如果你有一個這樣的夏天,看起來 23 年會好得多。如果我們今年夏天,也許就不會達到這個水準了?這樣公平嗎?

  • Rasesh Patel - CCO

    Rasesh Patel - CCO

  • Michael, this is Rasesh. Yes, that's a good way to think about it. The customer value is going to be stable and very sustainable. The supply value, which Rob can add a little more color on, that can be significantly higher in years of tiger market. And so I think that's the right way to think about it.

    邁克爾,這是拉塞什。是的,這是一個很好的思考方式。客戶價值將是穩定且非常永續的。羅布可以添加更多色彩的供應價值,在老虎市場的年份可能會明顯更高。所以我認為這是正確的思考方式。

  • Rob, would you add anything?

    羅布,你能補充點什麼嗎?

  • Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

    Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

  • Yes. So the thing I would have you think about from the supply perspective, remember that we're using this in lieu of some form of insurance right? So the values on the page represent what it would cost me, right? On the top part of the slide, this is what we would have -- this is what we save by not having to go and replace this with a heat rate call option or something like that, the representation down at the bottom where we talk about the different years.

    是的。所以我想讓你從供應的角度考慮一下,記住我們用它來代替某種形式的保險,對嗎?那麼頁面上的數值代表了我的成本,對吧?在幻燈片的頂部,這就是我們所擁有的東西——這就是我們節省的東西,因為我們不必用熱率看漲期權或類似的東西來替換它,在我們討論的底部的表示不同的年份。

  • So in '23, the value of that insurance would have been considerably more valuable than, say, this year where we didn't have any real price formation. But when you think about it long term with NRG and how we build it in the portfolio, I'm going to buy that insurance, regardless.

    因此,在 23 年,該保險的價值將比今年要高得多,因為今年我們沒有任何實際的價格形成。但當你考慮 NRG 的長期發展以及我們如何在投資組合中建立它時,無論如何,我都會購買該保險。

  • So I'm building the book 12 to 18 months out. We're putting in the insurance to protect our business. And so we're going to capture the values up at the top. And then the representation at the bottom is just the value that, that protected me from, right?

    所以我會在 12 到 18 個月後完成這本書。我們投保是為了保護我們的業務。因此,我們將捕獲頂部的值。然後底部的表示就是保護我免受傷害的值,對吧?

  • So I bought insurance in '23. It was really valuable. I bought insurance this year, and I didn't need it. That's the examples at the bottom. So the value that we see around VPP is consistent year -- every year, regardless of the circumstances because I'm going to buy that insurance to protect the portfolio anyway. Does that make sense?

    所以我在23年買了保險。這真的很有價值。我今年買了保險,不需要。這就是底部的例子。因此,無論情況如何,我們每年看到的 VPP 價值都是一致的,因為無論如何我都會購買保險來保護投資組合。這樣有道理嗎?

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • It does. That's really helpful. Okay. And then last one, just to round it out there, too. It's pretty sizable. Can you maybe just give us a sense of are there any competitors out there or other people looking to do this? Or how big does that VPP market get in Texas overall outside of what you were doing?

    確實如此。這真的很有幫助。好的。最後一個,也是為了完善它。這是相當大的。您能否讓我們了解是否有競爭對手或其他人想要這樣做?或者,除了您正在做的事情之外,德克薩斯州的 VPP 市場總體有多大?

  • Rasesh Patel - CCO

    Rasesh Patel - CCO

  • It's a great question. And one of the reasons I think NRG is so uniquely positioned is we have a skilled customer base, we have the supply management expertise. And now partnering with Renew Home and Google, we're partnered with the largest demand response platform in North America.

    這是一個很好的問題。我認為 NRG 如此獨特的原因之一是我們擁有熟練的客戶群,我們擁有供應管理專業知識。現在,我們與 Renew Home 和 Google 合作,並與北美最大的需求響應平台合作。

  • The partnership also gives us exclusivity to all new Nest thermostat enrollments into demand response in Texas. And to give you context around that, there are already 1 million Nest thermostats deployed in ERCOT, almost 300,000 of which are overlapped with the NRG customer base. And so this is a very unique opportunity for NRG.

    此次合作還使我們能夠在德克薩斯州的需求響應中獨家註冊所有新的 Nest 恆溫器。為了給您相關背景信息,ERCOT 中已經部署了 100 萬個 Nest 恆溫器,其中近 300,000 個與 NRG 客戶群重疊。因此,這對 NRG 來說是一個非常獨特的機會。

  • And two, everything that we've outlined today is showing you the thermostat opportunity, but we will be working with our partners to tie-in batteries, electric vehicles, other things onto the platform where we can leverage already deployed resources into this platform. And so, Michael, I think it would be very hard for anybody else to replicate this at scale.

    第二,我們今天概述的所有內容都向您展示了恆溫器的機會,但我們將與我們的合作夥伴合作,將電池、電動車和其他東西整合到平台上,我們可以利用已經部署到該平台中的資源。因此,邁克爾,我認為其他人很難大規模複製這一點。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Okay, awesome. Thank you so much.

    好吧,太棒了。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

    大衛‧阿卡羅,摩根士丹利。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks so much. Good morning. Hi David, how are you? Good, good. Hey, I was wondering if there's an organic growth kind of opportunity at the retail energy business that could be potential upside from here. How is that incorporated in there?

    嘿,非常感謝。早安.嗨大衛,你好嗎?好,好。嘿,我想知道零售能源業務是否存在有機成長的機會,從這裡可能有潛在的上升空間。它是如何融入其中的?

  • It seems like we're seeing pretty good residential growth in Texas over time, plus all of the C&I growth potential from new data center load. I didn't really see that maybe clearly called out as one of the components of the EBITDA growth opportunity. So wondering how you're thinking about that.

    隨著時間的推移,我們似乎看到德州的住宅成長相當不錯,加上新資料中心負載帶來的所有工商業成長潛力。我並沒有真正看到這可能被明確稱為 EBITDA 成長機會的組成部分之一。所以想知道你是怎麼想的。

  • Rasesh Patel - CCO

    Rasesh Patel - CCO

  • Yes. So it's a great question. The way I would really think about this is we have very strong market share on the residential energy side in Texas, right, nearly 40% share of the market. And so the larger opportunity we see is how do we leverage that household relationship to actually expand share of wallet with customers.

    是的。所以這是一個很好的問題。我真正思考這個問題的方式是,我們在德州的住宅能源方面擁有非常強大的市場份額,對吧,接近 40% 的市場份額。因此,我們看到的更大機會是如何利用家庭關係來實際擴大客戶的錢包份額。

  • And through the launch of home-based essentials, we're giving our existing skilled customer base a lot of incremental value. And in the trial that we've seen over the summer where we've provided customers this new bundle, 20% of them have already bought incremental Smart Home services from us, and that's very attractive.

    透過推出家庭必需品,我們為現有的熟練客戶群提供了大量增量價值。在今年夏天的試驗中,我們為客戶提供了這個新的捆綁包,其中 20% 的人已經從我們這裡購買了增量智慧家庭服務,這非常有吸引力。

  • So I would just characterize that as there will be opportunity, obviously, with modest household growth, but the larger opportunity for NRG is to expand the share of wallet, leveraging the near 40% market share we have in home energy.

    因此,我只想說,隨著家庭的適度增長,顯然會有機會,但 NRG 更大的機會是擴大錢包份額,利用我們在家庭能源領域擁有的近 40% 的市場份額。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Yes. Got you. Absolutely. Makes sense. And maybe on that data center side, is there growth coming to your service territory that would boost the commercial and industrial side of the business in terms of retail contract opportunities and retail growth?

    是的。明白你了。絕對地。有道理。也許在資料中心方面,您的服務領域是否會成長,從而在零售合約機會和零售成長方面促進商業和工業方面的業務?

  • Are you seeing data centers show up in that -- in the retail business coming to you with a multiyear energy contracting opportunities?

    您是否看到資料中心出現在零售業務中,為您帶來多年的能源合約機會?

  • Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

    Robert Gaudette - EVP of NRG Business

  • Short answer is yes. We are definitely seeing data centers coming with long-term contract requirements. And then the way to think about how it affects the rest of the C&I marketplace is that in a market where there's growing tightness and there's competition for those megawatts.

    簡短的回答是肯定的。我們肯定會看到資料中心有長期合約要求。然後,考慮它如何影響其他工商業市場的方法是,在一個日益緊張且對這些兆瓦的競爭的市場中。

  • I've said it before and we talked about it, there's a flight to quality that occurs amongst large industrials and commercial customers, where they want additional service, they want skilled operators on the other side of their contracts. And so we see an uplift into our opportunity set as we see this trend continue in ERCOT and, honestly, in PJM.

    我之前說過,我們也討論過,大型工業和商業客戶中存在著對品質的追求,他們需要額外的服務,他們希望合約的另一方有熟練的操作員。因此,我們看到我們的機會增加,因為我們看到這種趨勢在 ERCOT 以及說實話在 PJM 中持續存在。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay, great. Thanks so much. Yes, sir.

    知道了。好的,太好了。非常感謝。是的,先生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Larry Coben for any closing remarks.

    目前我在隊列中沒有顯示任何其他問題。現在,我將把電話轉回給拉里·科本先生,讓他發表結束語。

  • Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lawrence Coben - Chairman of the Board, Interim President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I want to thank you all for your interest in NRG. As you can tell from our releases, our slides in our presentation, we are all super excited about our business, and we look forward to keeping you up-to-date on it going forward. Have a great day and have a great weekend.

    我要感謝大家對 NRG 的興趣。正如您從我們的新聞稿、簡報中的幻燈片中可以看出的那樣,我們都對我們的業務感到非常興奮,並且我們期待為您提供最新的進展。祝您有美好的一天並度過愉快的週末。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program, and you may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束,您現在可以斷開連線。