NRG Energy Inc (NRG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NRG Energy Inc.'s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 NRG Energy Inc. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kevin Cole, Head of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、財務和投資者關係主管凱文·科爾 (Kevin Cole)。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length, and is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations and Webcast.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 NRG Energy 的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天早上的電話會議時長為 45 分鐘，將透過電話和網路廣播進行現場直播，網路廣播可以在我們網站 www.nrg.com 的投資者部分的演示和網路廣播下找到。

Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based upon assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the Safe Harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law. In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation.

請注意，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們認為截至目前合理的假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們敦促大家查看今天演示中的安全港以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。此外，我們將參考公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。有關我們的非公認會計原則財務指標以及與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節的信息，請參閱今天的演示文稿。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Larry Coben, NRG's Chair and Interim President and CEO.

現在，我將把電話轉給 NRG 主席兼臨時總裁兼執行長 Larry Coben。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in NRG. I'm Larry Coben, and I am the Chairman, Interim President and CEO. I'm joined this morning by Bruce Chung, our Chief Financial Officer. And we also have members of the management team on the call and available for questions.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安，感謝您對 NRG 的興趣。我是拉里‧科本 (Larry Coben)，我是董事長、臨時總裁兼執行長。今天早上我們的財務長 Bruce Chung 也加入了我的行列。我們還有管理團隊成員隨時待命並回答問題。

While I have been CEO for 3 months, I have been Chairman for 7 and on the board for 20 years. I have never been more excited about NRG as a company than I am today. Let's begin with the NRG value proposition on Slide 4. We are the trusted partner to almost 8 million residential customers earned every day through unique and differentiated offerings and simplify and improve our customers' lives. We have 5.9 million Energy and 2 million Smart Home customers and manage the second-largest C&I energy and natural gas retail portfolio in the country. We have taken the necessary steps to position NRG to win the energy transition. At the convergence of energy and technology in the home and grid with the evolution of smart devices and generative AI data centers. We generate significant excess cash well beyond our current business needs resulting in financial flexibility to return significant capital to our shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our business and financial outlook has never been stronger, and I've never been more excited about the future of the company than I am today.

我擔任執行長 3 個月，擔任董事長 7 個月，擔任董事會 20 年。我從來沒有像今天這樣對 NRG 這家公司感到如此興奮。讓我們從幻燈片 4 上的 NRG 價值主張開始。我們是近 800 萬住宅客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴，每天透過獨特和差異化的產品贏得客戶的信任，並簡化和改善客戶的生活。我們擁有 590 萬能源客戶和 200 萬智慧家庭客戶，並管理全國第二大工商業能源和天然氣零售組合。我們已採取必要措施，使 NRG 能夠贏得能源轉型。隨著智慧型設備和生成式人工智慧資料中心的發展，家庭和電網中能源和技術的融合。我們產生的大量超額現金遠遠超出了我們當前的業務需求，從而實現了財務靈活性，可以向股東返還大量資本，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。我們的業務和財務前景從未如此強勁，我也從未像今天這樣對公司的未來感到更興奮。

Turning to Slide 5. First, in 2023, we delivered record-free cash flow before growth and new record adjusted EBITDA. We exceeded our Investor Day outlook and our previously increased 2023 guidance ranges. This is the direct result of the strategic initiatives and actions we've taken in recent years to strengthen and stabilize our business. Our outlook continues to get better and better, and today, we are reaffirming our 2024 financial guidance ranges.

轉向投影片 5。首先，2023 年，我們實現了創紀錄的成長前現金流量和新紀錄的調整後 EBITDA。我們超越了投資者日展望和先前提高的 2023 年指引範圍。這是我們近年來為加強和穩定業務而採取的策略性舉措和行動的直接結果。我們的前景繼續變得越來越好，今天，我們重申 2024 年的財務指引範圍。

Next, we made significant progress advancing our long-term energy transition and electrification strategy. We have line of sight to achieving our current $550 million by 2025, and we are now turning our attention to the next phase of our growth.

接下來，我們在推動長期能源轉型和電氣化策略方面取得了重大進展。我們的目標是到 2025 年實現目前的 5.5 億美元目標，現在我們正在將注意力轉向下一階段的成長。

Lastly, we continue to execute our disciplined capital allocation strategy which bring about both a strong balance sheet and returning significant capital to you, our shareholders.

最後，我們繼續執行嚴格的資本配置策略，這不僅可以帶來強勁的資產負債表，還可以向您（我們的股東）返還大量資本。

Turning to Slide 6. We delivered $844 million of adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter, 82% higher than the prior year. This brings our full year results to $3.282 billion of adjusted EBITDA, 76% higher than last year, primarily driven by improved operational performance of our integrated energy platform and the addition of our Smart Home business.

轉向投影片 6。第四季我們實現了 8.44 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，比上年增長 82%。這使我們的全年業績調整後 EBITDA 達到 32.82 億美元，比去年增長 76%，這主要是由於我們綜合能源平台營運績效的改善以及智慧家庭業務的增加。

Our 2023 adjusted EBITDA was $152 million above our original guidance midpoint and at the high end of our adjusted guidance. While free cash flow before growth came in above the high end of our increased guidance range at $1.92 billion or $185 million above our original guidance midpoint. This resulted in $9.25 of free cash flow before growth per share in 2023, well ahead of the $8.50 per share target provided at our June Investor Day. Bruce will provide more detail shortly. But again, this performance is the direct result of our strategic initiatives and actions taken to strengthen and grow our business. And I note that these took place even with share purchases occurring at higher levels than projected on Investor Day.

我們 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 比我們最初的指導中點高出 1.52 億美元，處於調整後指引的高端。成長前的自由現金流高於我們上調指導範圍的上限，即 19.2 億美元，比我們最初指導中點高出 1.85 億美元。這使得 2023 年每股成長前的自由現金流為 9.25 美元，遠高於我們在 6 月投資者日設定的每股 8.50 美元的目標。布魯斯很快就會提供更多細節。但同樣，這項業績是我們為加強和發展業務而採取的策略性舉措和行動的直接結果。我注意到，即使股票購買的水平高於投資者日的預期，這些情況仍然發生。

Turning to our 2023 scorecard, we delivered across our strategic priorities. As you know, safety is our top priority, and I'm pleased to share that we achieved top decile safety performance through a year with many distractions, I'd like to thank all of our employees for their focus and dedication and hard work to making this happen as well as to making our financial results happen.

談到 2023 年記分卡，我們實現了策略重點。如您所知，安全是我們的首要任務，我很高興與大家分享，我們在一年多的干擾下取得了最高的十分位安全績效，我要感謝我們所有員工的專注、奉獻和辛勤工作實現這一目標以及實現我們的財務表現。

Next, we made progress in our continuous improvement goals for cost excellence. We completed the $300 million direct energy synergy program announced earlier in the year and we quickly turned our attention to identify and execute our previously announced next phase of cost initiatives, $250 million by the end of 2025.

接下來，我們在卓越成本的持續改善目標方面取得了進展。我們完成了今年稍早宣布的 3 億美元直接能源協同計劃，並迅速將注意力轉向確定和執行先前宣布的下一階段成本計劃，即到 2025 年底達到 2.5 億美元。

Turning to growth. Our success in achieving the $9.25 of free cash flow before growth per share versus our 850 target was primarily driven by faster execution of our growth plan. We are incredibly pleased with the results of our Smart Home acquisition and believe our current growth plan is just the beginning. We are only starting to scratch the surface.

轉向增長。我們成功實現了每股成長前 9.25 美元的自由現金流（相對於 850 美元的目標），這主要是由於我們更快地執行了成長計畫。我們對智慧家庭收購的結果感到非常滿意，並相信我們目前的成長計畫只是一個開始。我們才剛開始觸及表面。

Lastly, on capital allocation, we executed over $1.5 billion in debt paydown and returned another $1.5 billion to shareholders.

最後，在資本配置方面，我們償還了超過 15 億美元的債務，並向股東返還了另外 15 億美元。

Turning to Slide 7. We take a look at our 2024 outlook. Today, we are reaffirming our 2024 financial guidance ranges in our Investor Day 15% to 20% growth strategic road map. We are well positioned across each of our businesses to deliver on our commitments. In consumer energy, we expect the momentum gained in 2023 to continue into 2024, with volume, margins and earnings growing across residential and small commercial as well as commercial and industrial customer segments. This success will be driven by our diverse and efficient marketing and sales engines, our leading care and retention capabilities and our best-in-class innovative digital experience.

轉向幻燈片 7。讓我們來看看 2024 年的展望。今天，我們重申投資者日 15% 至 20% 成長策略路線圖中的 2024 年財務指引範圍。我們在每項業務中都處於有利地位，可以兌現我們的承諾。在消費能源方面，我們預計 2023 年獲得的動能將持續到 2024 年，住宅和小型商業以及商業和工業客戶群的銷售、利潤和收入都會成長。這項成功將由我們多元化、高效的行銷和銷售引擎、領先的維護和保留能力以及一流的創新數位體驗推動。

We are also seizing numerous opportunities as they arise or as we create them. An exciting example is Lubbock, Texas, a market of just over 100,000 customers that opened in early January with 65% of customers having already made their electricity provider choice. So far, we are exceeding expectations for our success in winning customers and look forward to bringing our innovative offerings and experiences to that market. We also continue to see momentum with community choice programs as a way for customers to experience the benefits of electricity competition in markets that don't have favorable political and regulatory sentiment that would allow customers to have the ability to freely choose their electricity providers.

我們也抓住大量出現或創造的機會。一個令人興奮的例子是德州拉伯克市，該市場於 1 月初開放，擁有超過 10 萬名客戶，其中 65% 的客戶已經選擇了電力供應商。到目前為止，我們在贏得客戶方面的成功超出了預期，並期待將我們的創新產品和體驗帶入該市場。我們也繼續看到社區選擇計畫的勢頭，作為客戶在市場中體驗電力競爭好處的一種方式，這些市場沒有有利的政治和監管情緒，無法讓客戶有能力自由選擇電力供應商。

Next, our diversified supply strategy manages our retail exposure in multiple scenarios to include events like the extreme summer of 2023 and Winter Storm Heather this past January, while at the same time, handling the mild weather that we have seen most of this winter.

接下來，我們的多元化供應策略在多種情況下管理我們的零售風險，包括2023 年的極端夏季和今年1 月的冬季風暴希瑟等事件，同時應對今年冬天大部分時間裡出現的溫和天氣。

Our targeted investments for reliability and flexibility across our fleet led to material improvements in the performance of our generation when we needed it, and we expect to realize continued improvements. We continue to evaluate various ways to enhance our supply strategy. We have 3 brownfield sites ready to go in Texas with dispatch flexibility, and we are considering additional storage options for the portfolio, primarily through longer-term structured transactions rather than outright ownership.

我們對整個機隊的可靠性和靈活性進行了有針對性的投資，從而在我們需要的時候顯著提高了我們這一代的性能，並且我們期望實現持續改進。我們繼續評估各種方法來增強我們的供應策略。我們在德克薩斯州有 3 個棕地場地可供使用，具有調度靈活性，並且我們正在考慮為投資組合提供額外的存儲選項，主要透過長期結構性交易而不是完全所有權。

And finally, the Smart Home business delivered a strong year, driving impressive top and bottom line growth. Recurring revenue and margin per customer increased through selling more products and services while simultaneously reducing net service cost per customer. We will continue to drive towards the horizontal expansion of our 8 million customers' wallets. Our customer retention is the best in the industry with an average customer life in the Smart Home business of 9 years driven by unmatched customer engagement and world-class product performance and reliability. We continue to focus on integrating Smart Home and Energy in achieving the initiatives we have previously communicated to you.

最後，智慧家庭業務表現強勁，推動了營收和利潤的令人印象深刻的成長。透過銷售更多產品和服務，每位客戶的經常性收入和利潤增加，同時降低每位客戶的淨服務成本。我們將繼續推動 800 萬個客戶錢包的橫向擴張。在無與倫比的客戶參與度和世界一流的產品性能和可靠性的推動下，我們的客戶保留率是業內最好的，智慧家庭業務的平均客戶壽命為 9 年。我們將繼續專注於整合智慧家庭和能源，以實現我們先前向您傳達的舉措。

Turning to Slide 8 for a closer look at growth and cost initiatives. In 2023, we advanced our energy transition electrification and continuous improvement strategy and delivered $138 million of incremental earnings, which was more times than twice our original $65 million target. We exceeded our goals for both growth and cost savings, resulting in more than $100 million of growth in our core businesses and sales channel optimization and more than $35 million in cost savings. This outperformance was primarily the result of realizing synergies faster than originally anticipated. And today, we are reaffirming the full planned target of $550 million of growth in cost initiatives by the end of 2025.

請參閱投影片 8，以詳細了解成長和成本計劃。 2023 年，我們推進了能源轉型電氣化和持續改進策略，實現了 1.38 億美元的增量收益，是我們最初 6,500 萬美元目標的兩倍多。我們超額完成了成長和成本節約目標，核心業務和銷售通路優化實現了超過 1 億美元的成長，成本節約超過 3,500 萬美元。這種出色的表現主要是因為比最初預期更快實現了協同效應。今天，我們重申 2025 年底成本計畫將成長 5.5 億美元的全面計畫目標。

Outside of this $550 million program, we have also identified additional attractive initiatives that are in early development leveraging the significant value creation opportunity from the convergence of energy and technology in the home and the grid. First is, for example, virtual power plant or VPP where we are uniquely positioned given our customer scale and reach, our data science proficiency and decades of commercial market -- commercial and market experience. Importantly, VPP will increase in value as the grid tightens, and our integrated energy business will allow us to monetize this value without requiring regulatory change.

除了這個 5.5 億美元的計劃之外，我們還確定了其他有吸引力的舉措，這些舉措正處於早期開發階段，利用家庭和電網中能源和技術融合帶來的重大價值創造機會。例如，首先是虛擬發電廠或 VPP，鑑於我們的客戶規模和覆蓋範圍、我們的數據科學熟練程度以及數十年的商業市場（商業和市場經驗），我們在該領域擁有獨特的定位。重要的是，隨著電網收緊，VPP 的價值將會增加，而我們的綜合能源業務將使我們能夠在不需要監管變化的情況下將這一價值貨幣化。

Second, on data centers and AI. Today, we are one of the largest competitive providers of power to the hyperscalers and other data center managers and we have been in direct conversations with several of these customers about using more load. We see this as a significant opportunity for NRG and for competitive markets more broadly.

第二，關於資料中心和人工智慧。如今，我們是向超大規模企業和其他資料中心管理者提供最具競爭力的電力供應商之一，我們一直在與其中一些客戶就使用更多負載進行直接對話。我們認為這對 NRG 以及更廣泛的競爭市場來說是一個重大機會。

Finally, we continue to evaluate strategic dispatchable new build with 1.5 gigawatts of brownfield projects in Texas ready to go. As you may know, in November, Texas voters approved the Texas Energy Fund, which provides support for new dispatchable generation. We expect the rules for that to be adopted early this year with applications beginning midyear. We anticipate providing an update on these projects over the coming months.

最後，我們繼續評估德州準備啟動的 1.5 吉瓦棕地計畫的策略可調度新建計畫。如您所知，11 月，德克薩斯州選民批准了德克薩斯州能源基金，該基金為新一代可調度發電提供支持。我們預計該規則將於今年年初通過，並於年中開始申請。我們預計在未來幾個月內提供這些項目的最新情況。

With that, I'd like to turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Bruce Chung, for a financial review.

有了這個，我想將其交給我們的財務長 Bruce Chung 進行財務審查。

Thank you, Larry. Moving to Slide 10. For 2023, NRG produced adjusted EBITDA of $3.282 billion, exceeding our original guidance and at the high end of our upward revised guidance range and free cash flow before growth of $1.925 billion, exceeding the high end of our upward revised guidance range. Our 2023 free cash flow before growth and adjusted EBITDA represents the highest and second highest, respectively, in NRG's history. This strong financial performance is a direct result of excellent execution across our businesses and made possible by the continued focus and effort from each of our employees in a year full of potential distractions.

謝謝你，拉里。轉到幻燈片10。2023 年，NRG 調整後EBITDA 為32.82 億美元，超出了我們最初的指導，處於我們上調指導範圍的高端，增長前的自由現金流為19.25 億美元，超過了我們上調指導範圍的高端範圍。我們 2023 年增長前自由現金流和調整後 EBITDA 分別是 NRG 歷史上最高和第二高的。如此強勁的財務表現是我們各業務部門出色執行力的直接結果，也是我們每位員工在充滿潛在幹擾的一年中持續專注和努力的結果。

Our 2023 adjusted EBITDA improved by $1.4 billion as compared to 2022, driven by strong performance in our Texas region, the addition of the Vivint Smart Home business, and execution of our growth and cost efficiency plans.

與 2022 年相比，我們 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 14 億美元，這得益於德克薩斯地區的強勁業績、Vivint 智慧家庭業務的增加以及我們的成長和成本效率計劃的執行。

Taking a closer look at the drivers within our segments and beginning with Texas, our full year adjusted EBITDA increased by $806 million over 2022. This was driven by higher revenue rates coupled with lower supply costs. Our diversified supply strategy worked as designed throughout a volatile year lowering our supply costs during the mild start to the year and providing stable pricing through the summer's extreme heat.

仔細研究我們細分市場內的驅動因素，從德克薩斯州開始，我們的全年調整後EBITDA 比2022 年增加了8.06 億美元。這是由更高的收入率和更低的供應成本推動的。我們的多元化供應策略在動蕩的一年中按照設計發揮作用，在開局溫和的情況下降低了我們的供應成本，並在夏季的酷熱期間提供了穩定的價格。

As we discussed throughout 2023, the margin expansion we saw across both our residential and C&I energy businesses, was produced through a combination of careful revenue rate management and providing our customers with differentiated products that address their needs for affordability, comfort and peace of mind. We believe this margin expansion will be durable over the foreseeable future, and this view is reflected in our 2024 guidance.

正如我們在2023 年所討論的那樣，我們的住宅和工商業能源業務的利潤增長是透過仔細的收入率管理和為客戶提供差異化產品來滿足他們對可負擔性、舒適性和安心的需求相結合的。我們相信，在可預見的未來，這種利潤率擴張將持續下去，這一觀點也反映在我們的 2024 年指導中。

In addition to improved margins, our residential energy business delivered strong customer retention of nearly 80% while maintaining average customer tenure of 6 years. This is a testament to the strength of our brands and customer experience.

除了提高利潤率外，我們的住宅能源業務還實現了近 80% 的強勁客戶保留率，同時維持了 6 年的平均客戶保有期。這證明了我們品牌的實力和客戶體驗。

Our East/West services segments were lower by $142 million versus the prior year. This was due to $60 million from asset retirements and sales with the remainder of the variance from the combination of lower average realized pricing at the Cottonwood facility as well as a challenging housing market and more conservative consumer discretionary spending impacting our HVAC and Goal Zero services businesses.

我們的東/西服務部門比前一年減少了 1.42 億美元。這是由於資產報廢和銷售產生了 6,000 萬美元，其餘差異是由於 Cottonwood 工廠的平均實現定價較低、房地產市場充滿挑戰以及消費者可自由支配支出更加保守，影響了我們的 HVAC 和零目標服務業務。

Finally, the addition of Smart Home contributed $753 million in adjusted EBITDA, finishing above the high end of our upward revised guidance for this segment. Throughout 2023, Smart Home delivered across all of its key metrics, most notably, Smart Home achieved 6% ending subscriber growth in an otherwise challenging macro environment. In addition to improving monthly recurring service margins of 9% through increasing average monthly revenue per subscriber, coupled with a continued focus on cost efficiency.

最後，智慧家庭的增加為調整後 EBITDA 貢獻了 7.53 億美元，高於我們對該細分市場上調指引的上限。 2023 年全年，智慧家庭實現了所有關鍵指標，最值得注意的是，智慧家庭在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中實現了 6% 的最終用戶成長。除了透過增加每位訂戶的平均每月收入以及持續關注成本效率，將每月經常性服務利潤率提高至 9%。

Turning to free cash flow before growth. NRG achieved $1.925 billion in 2023, setting a new record for the company. This represents an improvement of $1.4 billion over the prior year, primarily driven by our stronger EBITDA performance, along with improved working capital initiatives across our businesses.

在成長之前轉向自由現金流。 NRG 在 2023 年實現了 19.25 億美元的收入，創下了該公司的新紀錄。這比前一年增加了 14 億美元，這主要是由於我們更強勁的 EBITDA 業績以及我們各業務營運資本計劃的改善。

At our Investor Day in June, we communicated the 2023 target of $8.50 of free cash flow before growth per share. Our strong performance in 2023 resulted in $9.25 of free cash flow before growth per share, even after repurchasing shares at a 25% premium to what we had originally assumed in our Investor Day plan. Our platform is designed to generate significant cash flow. And based on that $9.25 per share and our current share price, that represents an implied free cash flow yield of 18%. Given this dislocation, repurchasing our shares remains one of the best investments we can make, and as such, we remain firmly committed to staying on the course with our capital allocation framework.

在 6 月的投資者日上，我們傳達了 2023 年每股成長前自由現金流 8.50 美元的目標。我們在 2023 年的強勁表現導致每股成長前的自由現金流為 9.25 美元，即使在以比我們最初在投資者日計劃中假設的溢價 25% 的價格回購股票之後也是如此。我們的平台旨在產生大量現金流。根據每股 9.25 美元和我們目前的股價，這意味著隱含的自由現金流收益率為 18%。鑑於這種混亂，回購股票仍然是我們可以進行的最佳投資之一，因此，我們仍然堅定地致力於堅持我們的資本配置框架。

Throughout 2023, we have demonstrated the strength and resiliency of our strategy and coupled with the compelling long-term macro tailwinds from the increasing electrification of the economy and convergence of energy with smart technologies, we are confident in the outlook for our share price.

在整個2023年，我們展現了我們策略的實力和彈性，再加上經濟日益電氣化以及能源與智慧技術融合所帶來的令人信服的長期宏觀推動力，我們對我們的股價前景充滿信心。

Turning to the next slide. I'd like to provide some additional context for 2023's financial results. On the left side of the page, we highlight the resiliency of our core Energy business. Our Texas fleet performed well through the second hottest summer in Texas history and most recently continued to perform through the volatility experienced during January's Winter Storm Heather. Over the last few years, we have strategically invested capital and improving the reliability of our facilities in anticipation of volatility across both summer and winter conditions, and we are seeing the impact of those investments through material improvements in our in the money availability factor.

轉到下一張投影片。我想為 2023 年的財務業績提供一些額外的背景資訊。在頁面左側，我們強調了核心能源業務的彈性。我們的德州機隊在德州歷史上第二個最熱的夏季表現良好，最近在一月份的冬季風暴希瑟經歷的波動中繼續表現良好。在過去的幾年裡，我們策略性地投資了資本，並提高了我們設施的可靠性，以應對夏季和冬季條件的波動，並且我們透過貨幣可用性因素的實質改善看到了這些投資的影響。

This is a performance measure illustrating the availability of our generation assets during periods when we need them the most. As you can see in the bar chart, we realized a 14% and 13% improvement in summer and winter, respectively, in this metric. Furthermore, we saw a nearly 20% improvement in this metric when comparing the fleet's performance during Winter Storm Heather versus Winter Storm Elliott. This level of improvement was and will be critical to ensuring we are able to serve our retail load cost effectively.

這是一項績效衡量指標，說明了我們在最需要發電資產的時期的可用性。正如您在長條圖中看到的那樣，我們發現該指標在夏季和冬季分別提高了 14% 和 13%。此外，在比較冬季風暴希瑟和冬季風暴艾利奧特期間機隊的表現時，我們發現該指標提高了近 20%。這種水準的改進對於確保我們能夠有效地以成本效益方式服務零售負載而言至關重要。

Moving to the right side of the page. Our Smart Home business surpassed the original expectations, primarily driven by expanded monthly recurring service margins. Notably, the margin expansion was a function of both higher average revenue per subscriber, coupled with lower cost to serve. We are also seeing higher take rates on Smart Home products and services at the point of sale, which is a testament to the effectiveness of our Smart Home sales channels and Smart Home customers recognizing the benefit of increasing the intelligence of their homes through additional seamlessly integrated devices.

移至頁面右側。我們的智慧家庭業務超出了最初的預期，主要是由於每月經常性服務利潤的擴大。值得注意的是，利潤率的成長是每位用戶平均收入增加和服務成本降低的結果。我們也看到智慧家庭產品和服務在銷售點的接受率更高，這證明了我們智慧家庭銷售管道的有效性，以及智慧家庭客戶認識到透過額外的無縫整合來提高家庭智慧的好處。設備。

Turning to Slide 12 for an updated view of our 2024 capital allocation. As you can see from the slide, not much has changed since our third quarter earnings call where we provided our initial view on 2024 capital allocation. We are still planning on $500 million of debt pay down in 2024 and expect to return nearly $1.2 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and common dividends. Coupled with the 2023 share repurchase program, we will have executed nearly 75% of the current $2.7 billion authorization by the end of 2024. We expect the 2023 accelerated share repurchase program to conclude by the end of Q1 this year, at which point, we will begin executing our 2024 repurchase plan on a more regular and programmatic basis throughout the year. As I mentioned earlier, at an implied yield of 18%, we see our shares as an excellent investment for shareholder capital, and as such, remain committed to the 80/20 principle we rolled out during Investor Day.

請參閱投影片 12，以了解我們 2024 年資本配置的最新觀點。正如您從幻燈片中看到的那樣，自第三季財報電話會議以來我們沒有太大變化，我們在電話會議上提供了對 2024 年資本配置的初步看法。我們仍計劃在 2024 年償還 5 億美元的債務，並預計以股票回購和普通股息的形式向股東返還近 12 億美元。加上 2023 年股票回購計劃，到 2024 年底，我們將執行目前 27 億美元授權的近 75%。我們預計 2023 年加速股票回購計劃將在今年第一季末結束，屆時，我們將在全年更定期和有計劃地開始執行我們的2024 年回購計劃。正如我之前提到的，隱含收益率為 18%，我們認為我們的股票是股東資本的絕佳投資，因此，我們將繼續致力於我們在投資者日推出的 80/20 原則。

In terms of incremental changes since our last earnings call and moving from left to right, 2024 excess cash increased $74 million because of the overperformance in 2023. Other investments increased $33 million, primarily from a calendar year shift in integration costs and capital deployed to small book acquisitions in our residential retail business.

從我們上次財報電話會議以來的增量變化來看，從左到右，由於2023 年的超額表現，2024 年的超額現金增加了7400 萬美元。其他投資增加了3300 萬美元，主要是由於整合成本和資本部署的日曆年轉變為小額投資我們住宅零售業務的圖書收購。

Finally, we have $41 million of unallocated capital available for allocation in 2024, which we will evaluate the use of as we move along the year.

最後，我們還有 4,100 萬美元的未分配資本可供 2024 年分配，我們將在這一年中評估這些資金的使用情況。

Before I hand it back to Larry, I'd like to point out that we included some new slides in the appendix of today's presentation, which provide more disclosure around our Energy business. We believe this disclosure will enable investors to model our energy business with a level of granularity they did not have before. These slides will be updated with each earnings call we have going forward. We hope you find them helpful, and our Investor Relations team is more than happy to answer any questions you may have regarding the new disclosures.

在將其交還給拉里之前，我想指出，我們在今天簡報的附錄中添加了一些新幻燈片，這些幻燈片提供了有關我們能源業務的更多資訊。我們相信，這項揭露將使投資者能夠以前所未有的粒度對我們的能源業務進行建模。這些投影片將隨著我們今後的每次財報電話會議而更新。我們希望它們對您有所幫助，我們的投資者關係團隊非常樂意回答您有關新披露的任何問題。

With that, I will turn it back to you, Larry.

這樣，我會把它轉回給你，拉里。

Thank you, Bruce. On Slide 14, I want to provide a few closing thoughts about 2024, our priorities and our expectations. We are laser-focused on delivering on our financial and operational commitments and adhering to our capital allocation principles. We will continue to integrate Smart Home with our Energy businesses and deliver on our growth and cost initiatives, all while advancing our energy transition and electrification strategy. I have never been more excited about the future of NRG.

謝謝你，布魯斯。在投影片 14 上，我想提供一些關於 2024 年、我們的優先事項和期望的結束語。我們專注於履行我們的財務和營運承諾，並遵守我們的資本分配原則。我們將繼續將智慧家庭與我們的能源業務結合，並實現我們的成長和成本計劃，同時推動我們的能源轉型和電氣化策略。我對 NRG 的未來從未如此興奮。

We are seeing signs of step-change improvement in fundamentals across our platform including the convergence of energy and technology in the home and grid through smart devices and generative AI. We believe this will put a spotlight on the scarcity of the critical products and services we sell and the durability of our platform. Said bluntly, I believe this step change will signify a change in the depressed valuations for NRG in our sector that have resulted in 20% plus cash flow yields. This will be good for NRG and the sector and it's very exciting times. I look forward to updating you on our progress along the way.

我們看到整個平台基本面出現逐步改善的跡象，包括透過智慧型設備和產生人工智慧實現家庭和電網中能源和技術的整合。我們相信，這將使人們專注於我們銷售的關鍵產品和服務的稀缺性以及我們平台的耐用性。坦白說，我相信這一步驟的變化將意味著我們行業 NRG 低迷的估值發生了變化，這種估值導致了 20% 以上的現金流收益率。這對 NRG 和整個行業來說都是好事，這是一個非常令人興奮的時刻。我期待向您通報我們一路走來的最新進展。

With that, thank you for your time and your interest in NRG. We're now ready to open the line for questions.

在此，感謝您抽出寶貴的時間以及對 NRG 的興趣。我們現在準備開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Look, I know you said it somewhat explicitly in the comments, but I wanted to come back to this. Obviously, with the shares materially higher here. How are you thinking about where you're positioned relative to the 15% to 20% FCF per share target through the forecast period? I just wanted to kind of tackle that. Obviously, doing very well against those targets here out of the gate in year 1. I just wanted to elaborate on that. And then secondly, I just wanted to come back to '24 here. Start of the year looks like probably robust load. How do you think about that positioning you and as you think about reflecting that within what you have out there on targets just in terms of the colder weather in Texas, specifically?

聽著，我知道你在評論中明確地說了這一點，但我想回到這一點。顯然，這裡的股價大幅上漲。您如何看待預測期內相對於每股 15% 至 20% FCF 目標的定位？我只是想解決這個問題。顯然，第一年就在這些目標上做得非常好。我只是想詳細說明這一點。其次，我只是想回到 24 年這裡。今年年初的負載看起來可能很強勁。你如何看待你的定位，以及當你考慮在你的目標中反映這一點時，特別是在德克薩斯州較冷的天氣方面？

Sure. Julien, it's Bruce here. So with respect to the 15% to 20%, we still are committed to achieving that 15% to 20% growth in free cash flow before growth per share. We believe that we're increasing both the free cash flow and the EBITDA, as you know, if you look at the '24 number, that's about $150 million above what we had already kind of indicated as part of the Investor Day plan. So we are seeing drivers both on the -- in the numerator. And then obviously, we remain committed to the capital allocation plan. And so we're going to also be driving the denominator. So we still remain committed to that 15% to 20%.

當然。朱利安，我是布魯斯。因此，就15%至20%而言，我們仍然致力於在每股成長之前實現自由現金流15%至20%的成長。我們相信，我們正在增加自由現金流和 EBITDA，如您所知，如果您查看 24 年的數字，這比我們已經在投資者日計劃中表示的金額高出約 1.5 億美元。所以我們在分子中看到了驅動因素。顯然，我們仍然致力於資本配置計劃。因此，我們也將推動分母。所以我們仍然致力於 15% 到 20%。

With respect to the other question, as we think about 2024, we're basically positioned in the same way as we were in 2023. And so that gives us a lot of comfort in terms of being able to handle what may be on -- what may be coming for us from a load perspective, Winter Storm Heather, we performed very well. The fleet performed very well, and so we're pretty confident about where we stand at this stage.

關於另一個問題，當我們考慮 2024 年時，我們的定位基本上與 2023 年相同。因此，這給我們帶來了很大的安慰，讓我們能夠處理可能發生的事情——從負載的角度來你看，我們可能會遇到什麼，冬季風暴希瑟，我們表現得非常好。機隊表現非常好，因此我們對現階段的情況非常有信心。

Wonderful. Excellent. And if I could just take a little bit on the comments from the -- you provided a second ago. You talked about longer-term storage contract opportunities. This would presumably be an offtake arrangement, which you're an offtaker to some sort of battery investment that someone else makes. If I'm hearing you right, I just want to make sure I understood how you were thinking about batteries and presumably ERCOT here.

精彩的。出色的。如果我可以接受您剛才提供的評論。您談到了長期儲存合約機會。這可能是一種承購安排，您是其他人進行的某種電池投資的承購者。如果我沒聽錯的話，我只是想確保我理解您對電池和 ERCOT 的看法。

Look, I think that -- yes, that is the answer, but we'll always come back and take a look at the capital that we do have to allocate, but there is an awful lot of people here in Texas who are willing to spend their money and providing storage for us, and that will probably be the optimal use of capital. But as you know, Julien, we always evaluate and reevaluate it as we put our supply strategy together to optimize our capital structure.

聽著，我認為 - 是的，這就是答案，但我們總是會回來看看我們必須分配的資本，但德克薩斯州有很多人願意花他們的錢並為我們提供存儲，這可能是資本的最佳利用。但朱利安，如您所知，當我們將供應策略放在一起以優化我們的資本結構時，我們總是評估並重新評估它。

Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的 Shar Pourreza。

I wanted to ask a bit of a high-level question, and it's obviously building off of Bruce's new disclosure comments and in light of the sort of maybe that step function change in valuation we saw with one of your peers yesterday. Have you given any consideration to maybe transitioning to EPS at some point in the future and providing, maybe, a bit of a longer-range look?

我想問一個高層次的問題，這顯然是建立在布魯斯新的披露評論的基礎上的，並且考慮到我們昨天在一位同行身上看到的估值的階躍函數變化。您是否考慮過在未來某個時候過渡到 EPS，並提供一些更長遠的視角？

Yes.

是的。

All right, we'll leave it at that one.

好吧，我們就留在那個吧。

The answer, sorry, is yes. Yes. Stay tuned.

抱歉，答案是肯定的。是的。敬請關注。

And then perhaps maybe just going back to the CEO search process. I mean, obviously, it's gotten a little bit more competitive recently with sort of on the power and utility head hunting side. Can you just give us some more color on where things stand today in terms of down-selecting. I'm curious if you're now a bit more focused on a power person or a retail consumer person.

然後也許只是回到執行長的搜尋過程。我的意思是，顯然，最近在電力和公用事業獵人頭方面的競爭變得更加激烈。您能否給我們更多關於目前在向下選擇方面的情況的說明。我很好奇你現在是否更關注權力人物或零售消費者。

Sure, Shar. I won't take it personally that you seem to be anxious to get rid of me, but no, look Shar, I don't think -- I think we're still looking for a person who spans the 2 types of things that we're doing, consumer and energy, as we said before. We have a terrific committee that's working exceptionally hard. And as I said to you, we had a huge list of candidates when we started, and they are whittling away at that. I think when we talked 3 months ago, I said 3 to 9 months, and I still would stand by that time frame.

當然，莎爾。我不會認為你似乎急於擺脫我，但不，聽著，莎爾，我不認為——我認為我們仍在尋找一個能夠跨越兩種類型的人正如我們之前所說，我們正在做的是消費者和能源。我們有一個出色的委員會，工作異常努力。正如我對你所說的，我們一開始就有一份龐大的候選人名單，但他們正在削減名單。我想當我們三個月前談話時，我說的是 3 到 9 個月，我仍然會堅持這個時間框架。

So I guess that would be 0 to 6 months from now, if I do the math correctly. And there's a tremendous number of people who are looking at NRG, are excited by the prospects, are excited by the ability to drive valuation given the incredible cash flow yield, given the incredible prospects that we have at the confluence of Energy and Smart Home. And so I'm excited by the people that we're seeing, and I think you will be, too.

所以我猜如果我計算正確的話，那將是從現在開始的 0 到 6 個月。有大量的人正在關注NRG，他們對前景感到興奮，對鑑於令人難以置信的現金流收益率、考慮到我們在能源和智能家居融合領域所擁有的令人難以置信的前景而推動估值的能力感到興奮。所以我對我們所見到的人感到興奮，我想你也會。

Our next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So just also a big picture question. So I mean if there's one thing that we've learned over the last couple of weeks is that investors increasingly value physical power plants, especially those that don't get a participation medal for just showing up. So I'm just wondering how does that fit in your strategy of being asset-light on the generation side in light of the tightening supply demand fundamentals and power. Again, I understand that there is demand response and other ways to probably fit in, in this new picture. But I'm just wondering, just simplistically speaking, how do you deal with that?

這也是一個大局問題。所以我的意思是，過去幾週我們學到的一件事是，投資者越來越重視實體發電廠，尤其是那些僅僅出現而沒有獲得參與獎牌的發電廠。因此，我只是想知道，鑑於供應需求基本面和電力收緊，這是否符合你們在發電方面輕資產的策略。再次，我明白在這個新的圖像中可能有需求響應和其他可能適合的方式。但我只是想知道，簡單地說，你如何處理這個問題？

Sure. Angie, I'm going to let Rob expand on that, but I've never -- I don't think we're asset-light, we're asset optimal and we'll always be asset optimal and that maybe semantics, but I think they're important semantics. We have 3 brownfield projects that are ready to go, and you'll get some updates on those pretty soon, but that's 1.5 gigawatts of dispatchable capacity, and we have some more potential in the pipeline.

當然。安吉，我會讓羅布進一步闡述這一點，但我從來沒有——我不認為我們是輕資產的，我們是資產最優的，我們將永遠是資產最優的，這也許是語義上的，但我認為它們是重要的語義。我們有 3 個棕地項目已準備就緒，您很快就會收到有關這些項目的一些最新信息，但可調度容量為 1.5 吉瓦，而且我們還有更多潛力正在醞釀之中。

Maybe, Rob, you want to expand on that, please?

也許，羅布，你想進一步闡述這一點，好嗎？

Sure. So Angie, look, we're excited by the growing demand for power. Like I think that it's real. We know it's real because we talk to a lot of the growth guys, so it's the hyperscalers and others that you've all heard about. We talk to them a lot. And it's exciting for NRG for a couple of reasons. One, we sit in competitive markets, which is where I believe most of this demand growth is going to be. We're going to see expanded margins on our existing fleet, right? So as the product goes up, we're going to see more earnings off of our generation, and we've spent and invested inside of those plants so that we can capture that.

當然。安吉，你看，我們對不斷增長的電力需求感到興奮。就像我認為這是真的一樣。我們知道這是真的，因為我們與許多成長人員交談過，所以你們都聽說過超大規模企業和其他企業。我們和他們聊了很多。對於 NRG 來說，這令人興奮有幾個原因。第一，我們處於競爭激烈的市場，我相信這將是大部分需求成長的地方。我們將看到現有機隊的利潤率擴大，對吧？因此，隨著產品的成長，我們將看到我們這一代獲得更多的收入，並且我們已經在這些工廠內部進行了支出和投資，以便我們能夠抓住這一點。

Like, Larry said, we've got the 3 projects that are ready to go. And the other thing to think about, Angie, is we've got 21 plant sites across the country. So if there -- if this growth continues and we see it, it makes economic sense, then there's an opportunity there. But ultimately, these guys are going to turn to partners like NRG. As the market tightens, they're going to look for people who've got the expertise that we have. So it's going to be good for the industry, but it's definitely going to be good for us.

拉里說，我們已經準備好了 3 個項目。安吉，另一個需要考慮的事情是我們在全國有 21 個工廠。因此，如果這種成長持續下去並且我們看到它，它具有經濟意義，那麼那裡就有機會。但最終，這些人將轉向 NRG 等合作夥伴。隨著市場緊縮，他們將尋找擁有我們所擁有的專業知識的人。所以這對這個行業來說是件好事，但對我們來說肯定也是件好事。

But does that mean that in a sense you're shifting a bit of the growth on the energy side towards C&I customers? Because I remember that historically, that was a very small portion of the business and not -- well, meaningfully lower margins than the rest of the business. So anyway, is there like a different earnings or margin profile for those tech companies versus the traditional C&I load that you used to serve?

但這是否意味著從某種意義上說，您正在將能源方面的部分成長轉向工商業客戶？因為我記得從歷史上看，這只是業務的一小部分，而且利潤率並不比其他業務低得多。那麼無論如何，這些科技公司的獲利或利潤狀況與您過去服務的傳統工商業負載相比是否有不同？

So generally, C&I margins themselves over the last few years have gone up. The difference on the margin -- from a hyperscaler versus a traditional C&I customer, there isn't -- we haven't seen a growth in margin on the hyperscalers. The way that you should probably think about it is if you're going to get a bunch of demand into the system, which we believe is real, that's going to create tightness for all customers. And so C&I customers across the board, not just data center customers, are going to be looking for expertise, which means they're going to turn to the bigger players who can help them manage the risk in a higher price, tighter commodity environment. Does that help?

因此，總的來說，過去幾年工商業利潤本身有所上升。超大規模企業與傳統工商業客戶之間的利潤率差異並不存在——我們還沒有看到超大規模企業的利潤率成長。您可能應該考慮的方式是，如果您要將大量需求帶入系統（我們認為這是真實的），這將為所有客戶造成緊張。因此，所有工商業客戶，而不僅僅是資料中心客戶，都將尋求專業知識，這意味著他們將轉向更大的參與者，這些參與者可以幫助他們在價格更高、商品供應緊張的環境中管理風險。這樣有幫助嗎？

Okay. Yes. And then changing topics and your IG aspiration. So I obviously see the metrics or the targeted metrics till the end of '24. Can you tell us if you've had any discussions with credit agencies how they see the business risks besides just hitting the numerical thresholds vis-a-vis the investment-grade ratings?

好的。是的。然後改變話題和你的 IG 願望。所以我顯然看到了 24 年底前的指標或目標指標。您能否告訴我們，您是否與信貸機構進行過任何討論，除了達到投資等級評級的數字門檻之外，他們如何看待業務風險？

Sure, Angie. So just to clarify, we are not chasing an investment-grade rating. As we've always said, we are making sure that we want to hit the metrics that we believe correspond with an investment-grade rating, but that's not to say that we're necessarily going to be chasing it because ultimately, that is up to the agencies. We talk to the agencies very regularly and they like the path on which we are heading from a credit perspective. It's important to note that when you think about our credit metrics, it's not just debt to EBITDA that the agency is focused on. They obviously also look at cash flow-driven metrics. And so we're kind of triangulating around all of that.

當然，安吉。因此，需要澄清的是，我們並不是追求投資等級。正如我們一直所說的，我們確保我們想要達到我們認為與投資級評級相對應的指標，但這並不是說我們一定會追逐它，因為最終，這是上升的給各機構。我們經常與這些機構交談，他們喜歡我們從信用角度走的路。值得注意的是，當您考慮我們的信用指標時，該機構關注的不僅僅是 EBITDA 債務。他們顯然也關注現金流驅動的指標。所以我們正在圍繞所有這些進行三角測量。

Ultimately, whether we get the rating or not, like I said, is not necessarily within our control. But what is within our control is being able to hit those metrics. I'd say, as we sit here today, given as you note where we're going to end up at the end of 2024, we think there's probably some flexibility in 2025, with respect to, what our original deleveraging plans were as part of the Investor Day plan, but more to come on that as we move along in the year.

最終，正如我所說，我們能否獲得評級並不一定在我們的控制範圍內。但我們能夠控制的是能夠達到這些指標。我想說的是，當我們今天坐在這裡時，考慮到您注意到 2024 年底我們將達到什麼結果，我們認為 2025 年可能會有一些靈活性，就我們最初的去槓桿化計劃而言投資者日計畫的一部分，但隨著我們今年的進展，還會有更多內容。

Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

I just wanted to kind of go over the cost improvements and the growth opportunity, the $550 million target that you have through -- by 2025. So obviously, this year, you've kind of hit the ground running, exceeded expectations. Maybe can you sort of help us break that apart, the $100 million in growth opportunities? How much of that is cross-selling versus how much of that is actual margin expansion within your existing services? And then as we think about cost improvements, there's a big step change from $37 million this year to about $100 million. Maybe just walk through the drivers of that?

我只是想回顧一下成本改進和成長機會，到 2025 年實現 5.5 億美元的目標。很明顯，今年，你們已經開始運行，超出了預期。也許你能幫助我們打破這個 1 億美元的成長機會嗎？其中有多少是交叉銷售，有多少是現有服務中實際的利潤擴張？然後，當我們考慮成本改進時，會發現從今年的 3700 萬美元到大約 1 億美元發生了很大的變化。也許只是簡單介紹一下其驅動因素？

Yes, you bet. So in terms of the growth synergies, we feel obviously very good about where we set 1 year into the plan through 2025. You can think about the mix as roughly 50% is actually driven by organic growth in the business units, we had obviously a strong year in the base business. And the other 50%, driven by a combination of cross-sell and think of it as a share of wallet-type initiatives that improved the revenue and margin profile per customer. And so we've had a strong start. We have a very high degree of confidence for the $300 million given we exceeded our initial guidance in year 1. And then as it relates to the cost side of things. The $100 million in cost synergies are really a function of elimination of 2 publicly traded companies, and we also exceeded our year 1 target for the cost side. And we have full line of sight to the $100 million by 2025. In fact, we will probably exceed our 2024 target towards that $100 million. And so as we sit here, we feel good on both ends, Durgesh.

是的，你敢打賭。因此，就成長協同效應而言，我們顯然對 2025 年計畫的 1 年設定非常滿意。您可以考慮一下這種組合，因為大約 50% 實際上是由業務部門的有機成長推動的，我們顯然有基礎業務強勁的一年。另外 50% 是由交叉銷售組合推動的，並將其視為錢包式舉措的一部分，這些舉措改善了每個客戶的收入和利潤狀況。我們已經有了一個好的開始。鑑於我們在第一年超出了最初的指導，我們對 3 億美元充滿信心。然後因為它與成本方面有關。 1 億美元的成本綜效實際上是消除了 2 家上市公司的結果，而且我們也超越了第一年的成本目標。我們的目標是到 2025 年達到 1 億美元。事實上，我們很可能會超過 2024 年達到 1 億美元的目標。因此，當我們坐在這裡時，我們在兩端都感覺良好，Durgesh。

Got it. And then maybe just a 1.5 gigawatt dispatchable generation opportunity. Can you maybe walk us through your thought process here? It sounds like you'll be making decisions in the second half of this year. How do you kind of gauge that versus buying back shares as I'm thinking about the long-term outlook, 2025 and beyond?

知道了。然後也許只有 1.5 吉瓦的可調度發電機會。您能否在這裡向我們介紹一下您的思考過程？聽起來你將在今年下半年做出決定。當我考慮 2025 年及以後的長期前景時，您如何衡量這與回購股票之間的關係？

Look, let me just say, it will not impact 1 iota our capital allocation strategy or the buyback of shares. I want to make that clear again and again and again, and you can put that down as a headline. So very, very clear on that. Strategically, it's really -- we have a supply strategy that Rob has laid out on several occasions and looking at how these plants fit into that supply strategy, both for our existing customers, but also for the customers who are coming online with things like data centers like generative AI and some of the other things we've been talking about that are growth and tightening opportunities.

你看，我只是說，這不會影響我們的資本配置策略或股票回購一丁點。我想一次又一次地澄清這一點，你可以把它當作標題。對此非常非常清楚。從策略上講，我們確實有 Rob 多次製定的供應策略，並研究這些工廠如何適應該供應策略，無論是為我們現有的客戶，還是為那些透過數據等方式上網的客戶。諸如生成人工智慧之類的中心以及我們一直在談論的其他一些事情，即成長和緊縮機會。

Rob, do you want to add anything?

羅布，你想補充什麼嗎？

So the only thing I would tell you is, recall, we've been working on these for a while. We continue to work today. So we continue to get closer to being able to make final commitments. In March, the rules for Texas come out. And then you can expect people to put their names in for the Texas Energy Fund probably June. I would expect that you guys will hear from us as to what we decide. But like Larry said, we're going to -- our capital allocation plan sticks and it all comes down to the financial opportunities that we see in either building the plants or doing something different. And right now, and as you guys have all seen, those plants have flexibility, which is good for how we manage our portfolio and ultimately good for what the grid needs in Texas.

所以我唯一要告訴你的是，回想一下，我們已經在這些方面努力了一段時間。今天我們繼續工作。因此，我們越來越接近能夠做出最終承諾。三月，德州的規則出台。然後你可以預期人們可能會在六月將自己的名字加入德州能源基金。我希望你們能聽到我們的決定。但正如拉里所說，我們將堅持我們的資本分配計劃，這一切都取決於我們在建造工廠或做不同事情時看到的財務機會。現在，正如大家所看到的，這些工廠具有靈活性，這有利於我們管理投資組合的方式，並最終有利於德州電網的需求。

Our next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛·阿卡羅。

Maybe on the Smart Home side of things. Again, strong KPIs in 2023. I was wondering if you could comment on how you're expecting a couple of those like subscriber growth and recurring revenue. How do you see those trending now heading into 2024?

也許是在智慧家庭方面。同樣，2023 年的關鍵績效指標 (KPI) 也很強勁。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您對訂閱者成長和經常性收入等指標的預期。您如何看待 2024 年的趨勢？

Yes. Thank you. We feel really good about how we exited the year-end '23. As you mentioned, with 6% subscriber growth, the 11% revenue growth, 17% adjusted EBITDA growth. And really, that's a function of a few things. First is the unit economics of the business are in great shape. If you look at the revenue per customer, the service cost reduction per customer of 21% that really drives an expansion of our service margin. And we expect that increased elevated margin to continue into 2024. As it relates to retention and brand loyalty, we are -- we had amongst our best years ever in terms of retaining our customers with a strong and durable customer relationships.

是的。謝謝。我們對 23 年年底的結束感覺非常好。正如您所提到的，訂閱用戶成長 6%，營收成長 11%，調整後 EBITDA 成長 17%。事實上，這是一些因素的作用。首先是企業的單位經濟效益狀況良好。如果你看看每位客戶的收入，你會發現每位客戶的服務成本降低了 21%，這確實推動了我們服務利潤的擴大。我們預計利潤率的成長將持續到 2024 年。由於這與保留率和品牌忠誠度有關，我們在透過強大而持久的客戶關係留住客戶方面經歷了有史以來最好的年份。

We expect that to continue as well. And then in terms of the subscriber growth, we expect to be in the mid-single digits from a subscriber growth perspective as well. So we feel good about how the business is set up in '24. If you zoom out, we operate in a large, growing and fragmented market. And our products and services have a very high degree of engagement and loyalty relative to peers. And so we think there is a lot of room ahead for us to continue to grow the business.

我們預計這種情況也將持續下去。然後就訂戶成長而言，從訂戶成長的角度來看，我們預計也將達到中個位數。因此，我們對 24 年業務的建立方式感到滿意。如果你縮小視野，你會發現我們在一個龐大的、不斷成長的、分散的市場中運作。相對於同行，我們的產品和服務具有非常高的參與度和忠誠度。因此，我們認為我們還有很大的空間可以繼續發展業務。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. Then I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate a bit more on the data center impact to the business. Am I understanding you correctly that as you see load growth from these data centers happen in ERCOT, for example, you could see, I guess, potentially higher pricing, more volatile pricing? And over time, that could lead to higher margins across the board, higher retail margins across customer classes for your business. Is that the right way to think about it?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想知道您是否可以詳細說明資料中心對業務的影響。我是否正確理解您的意思，例如，當您看到 ERCOT 中這些資料中心的負載成長時，您可能會看到，我猜，潛在的更高的定價，更不穩定的定價？隨著時間的推移，這可能會導致您的企業的整體利潤率、跨客戶類別的零售利潤率更高。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

It's Rob. Yes. So generative AI is going to load or created additional demand across the markets. The way to think about how that affects the businesses generally is let's start with that expands the margins on our existing generation portfolio and also makes that 1.5 gigawatts more interesting. And then when you think across the other parts of the business, C&I, you're going to see people turning towards bigger players like us, where we've seen it historically, when things get tighter, they run to quality providers, we're there. And then from a home perspective, a consumer perspective, we've had a retail platform that has historically, and will in the future, manage through different commodity cycles. And as prices move, our retail platform, because of the experience we have beyond just being a commodity provider, we do well in those markets, too.

是羅布。是的。因此，生成式人工智慧將在市場上載入或創造額外的需求。考慮這對企業產生的整體影響，我們首先要考慮的是擴大我們現有發電產品組合的利潤，同時也讓 1.5 吉瓦變得更有趣。然後，當你考慮業務的其他部分時，C&I，你會看到人們轉向像我們這樣的更大的參與者，我們在歷史上看到過，當事情變得更緊張時，他們會轉向優質的供應商，我們'在那裡。然後從家庭角度、消費者角度來看，我們擁有一個零售平台，在歷史上和未來都將管理不同的商品週期。隨著價格的變化，我們的零售平台，由於我們擁有不僅僅是商品供應商的經驗，我們在這些市場也做得很好。

Our next question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·沙利文和沃爾夫。

Appreciate the new disclosures on the Energy business, by the way. But I wanted to just go back to Texas and new build there. And just maybe if you could just frame the broader political dynamic there, where things stand just in light of the Lieutenant Governor making some comments, I think, asking for new bill, do you kind of continue to see these headlines noise around the ECRS. I know we're not in a legislative session this year, but just kind of where the politics stand on market structure and the like?

順便說一句，請欣賞有關能源業務的新披露。但我想回到德克薩斯州並在那裡新建。也許如果你能框架更廣泛的政治動態，根據副州長發表的一些評論，我想，要求新的法案，你會繼續看到圍繞 ECRS 的這些頭條新聞嗎？我知道今年我們不參加立法會議，但只是想了解政治在市場結構等方面的立場？

If I could understand Texas politics, I'd be in a different business probably, Michael, there's not a legislative session. I think it's fair to say that people are now looking to see whether everything that was passed in the last session is actually going to generate capacity in the state before people start breaking it up again and starting over. The PUC has a lot -- awful lot of work to do just to implement the many things that were passed in the legislature. And I think a combination of those measures plus the tightening market and the improving economics in the market and the expanding margins will probably generate the capacity that Texas will need to meet growth in the foreseeable future. At least that's our view of what's happening in politics. That doesn't mean that people from time to time won't try to use the energy business as a political football. But on balance, we actually see a fair amount of stability on the legislative front.

如果我能理解德克薩斯州的政治，我可能會從事不同的行業，邁克爾，沒有立法會議。我認為可以公平地說，人們現在正在關注上屆會議中通過的所有內容是否真的會在人們開始再次分解並重新開始之前在該州產生容量。為了落實立法機關通過的許多事項，公用事業委員會有大量的工作要做。我認為，這些措施加上市場緊縮、市場經濟狀況改善以及利潤率不斷擴大，可能會產生德州在可預見的未來滿足成長所需的能力。至少這是我們對政治中正在發生的事情的看法。這並不意味著人們不會時不時地嘗試利用能源產業作為政治足球。但總的來說，我們實際上看到立法方面相當穩定。

Okay. That's helpful. Appreciate that's a tough one. And just if you do move forward with these brownfield plants, how long would it take to complete?

好的。這很有幫助。欣賞這是一件艱難的事。如果您確實繼續推進這些棕地工廠，需要多長時間才能完成？

So the -- if you recall, the portfolio is 3 different projects, the peakers, we could get in, in 2 years and starting from whenever we broke ground and then a CCGT takes about 4. So you could expect if we were to go soon 2026 and 2028 would kind of be good years to think about from an additional capacity perspective.

所以——如果你還記得的話，投資組合是 3 個不同的項目，我們可以在 2 年內進入，從破土動工開始，然後 CCGT 需要大約 4 個項目。所以你可以預期，如果我們要去的話很快，2026 年和2028 年將是從額外容量角度考慮的好年份。

Okay. Great. And then just last one quick. You mentioned the new Lubbock market, any like rough sense of size of the opportunity set there? And is any of that baked into your plan? Or is that all upside?

好的。偉大的。然後快點做最後一個。您提到了新的拉伯克市場，有沒有類似的機會規模？這些是否已納入您的計劃中？或者這就是全部的好處嗎？

Yes. So this is Elizabeth. Thanks for the question. So we are really excited about the Lubbock opening. 2 things about it. One, 65% of consumers made a choice. And if you have a reference point like when the Texas market opened, 5% made a choice. So demonstrating that consumers actually care who they do business with in Energy. NRG participated in the presale process. That's where the 65% made the choice and those customers will come on flow in March, and that is baked into our 2024 and beyond growth plans. The only other thing I would say is so far, NRG is overperforming, we have about 39% share of customers in Texas on the home front, and we are overperforming relative to that. So again -- and Larry mentioned it, but about 100,000 customers in the marketplace that are making a choice. And so they'll start and be our and other retailer customers in March.

是的。這就是伊莉莎白。謝謝你的提問。因此，我們對拉伯克的開業感到非常興奮。關於它的 2 件事。第一，65%的消費者做出了選擇。如果你有一個參考點，例如德州市場開盤時，5% 的人會做出選擇。這表明消費者實際上關心他們在能源領域與誰做生意。 NRG 參與了預售過程。這就是 65% 的人做出選擇的地方，這些客戶將在 3 月湧入，這已納入我們 2024 年及以後的成長計畫中。我要說的唯一另一件事是，到目前為止，NRG 表現出色，我們在德克薩斯州的國內客戶份額約為 39%，相對於此，我們的表現出色。拉里也提到過，但市場上大約有 10 萬名客戶正在做出選擇。因此，他們將在三月開始成為我們和其他零售商的客戶。

Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ryan Levine。

Hoping to touch on retail energy gross margin outlook. It looks like your guidance is assuming about 100 basis points degradation there. How much is that weather normalized for '24? And is there any conservatism embedded in that forecast in light of your comments? Any color you could share around potential upside there, in particular, in Texas?

希望談談零售能源毛利率前景。看起來你的指導假設那裡有大約 100 個基點的降級。 24 年的天氣正常化程度是多少？根據您的評論，該預測是否包含保守主義成分？您可以分享一下關於該地區（尤其是德克薩斯州）潛在上漲空間的任何顏色嗎？

So, Ryan, it's Bruce. The 2024 number is certainly on a weather-normalized basis. But the '24 number does reflect a higher assumption on COGS for the retail business. And so there's just a bit of a timing lag between the realization of that COGS relative to when that gets pushed through in revenue rate. But Elizabeth, if you want to provide a little bit more color there?

所以，瑞安，是藍調。 2024 年的數字肯定是在天氣正常化的基礎上得出的。但 24 年的數字確實反映了對零售業務 COGS 的更高假設。因此，實現銷售成本與實現收入率之間存在一點時間滯後。但是伊莉莎白，你想在那裡提供更多的色彩嗎？

Yes. So we've demonstrated margin stability over the years in the home space. And that comes from -- and most of you were there, from some of the AI/Machine Learning revenue management tools and models we created back in the transformation program and since have continuously improved them. The other thing I would highlight is that over this, call it, the last decade, we've been able to deliver stable and growing margins in a variety of supply cost environment. So this one, Bruce mentioned, where costs have significantly increased over the last few years, and we've either grown or held margins through that time frame, aside from the weather normalization that you mentioned.

是的。因此，多年來我們在家居領域展示了利潤率的穩定性。這來自——你們中的大多數人都在場，來自我們在轉型計劃中創建的一些人工智慧/機器學習收入管理工具和模型，此後不斷改進它們。我要強調的另一件事是，在過去十年中，我們已經能夠在各種供應成本環境中提供穩定且不斷成長的利潤。布魯斯提到，在過去幾年中，成本顯著增加，除了您提到的天氣正常化之外，我們在這段時間內要么增加了利潤，要么保持了利潤。

How much cost escalation are you assuming for 2024 that's being offset by these other measures?

您預計到 2024 年，這些其他措施將抵銷多少成本上升？

Ryan, that's probably one that we'll have to just get back to you on to make sure that we get you the right numbers on that.

Ryan，這可能是我們必須回覆您的問題，以確保我們為您提供正確的數字。

Thank you. This concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I will now pass it back to Larry Coben for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。現在我將把它傳回拉里·科本以供結束語。

I want to thank all of you for joining us on the call today and for your interest in NRG. And I think you can see we are at the most exciting point, probably in NRG's history. I think you can hear in the voices of the management and in our actual results, what we have and are planning to achieve going forward. We look forward to speaking with you more in the days ahead. We'll be at the conferences in New York next week. In the meantime, please feel free to reach out to Kevin and Brendan with any further questions that you might have. Thank you all.

我要感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議以及對 NRG 的興趣。我想你可以看到我們正處於 NRG 歷史上最令人興奮的時刻。我想你可以從管理階層的聲音和我們的實際成果中聽到我們已經和計劃未來實現的目標。我們期待在未來的日子裡與您進行更多交談。下週我們將參加在紐約舉行的會議。同時，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 Kevin 和 Brendan。謝謝你們。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束。