NRG Energy Inc (NRG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NRG Energy, Inc. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Kevin Cole, Head of Treasury and Investor Relations to read the safe harbor and introduce the call.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 NRG Energy, Inc. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人、財務和投資者關係主管凱文·科爾 (Kevin Cole)，他將宣讀安全港並介紹此次電話會議。

Great. Thank you, Darian. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length and is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations and Webcast.

偉大的。謝謝你，達里安。早安，歡迎參加 NRG Energy 的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上的電話會議時長為 45 分鐘，將透過電話和網路廣播進行現場直播，網路廣播可以在我們網站 www.nrg.com 的投資者部分的演示和網路廣播下找到。

Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law. In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

請注意，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們認為截至目前合理的假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們敦促大家回顧今天演示中的安全港以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。此外，我們將參考公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。

For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Mauricio Gutierrez, NRG's President and CEO.

有關我們的非公認會計原則財務指標以及與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節的信息，請參閱今天的演示文稿。現在，我將把電話轉給 NRG 總裁兼執行長 Mauricio Gutierrez。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in NRG. I'm joined this morning by Bruce Chung, Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call and available for questions, we have members of the management team.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安，感謝您對 NRG 的興趣。今天上午，財務長布魯斯·鐘 (Bruce Chung) 也加入了我的行列。我們的管理團隊成員也可以接聽電話並回答問題。

Before we go into the quarterly review, I'd like to start with an overview of our value proposition. Over the last 6 years, we have taken the necessary steps to position NRG at the center of the energy transition, a consumer energy business that benefits from the increasing electrification of our economy while generating significant excess cash well beyond its business needs, a complementary smart home business that increases the lifetime value of our customers and enables greater optimization of our customers' energy demand and the financial flexibility to return significant capital to our shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

在我們進行季度審查之前，我想先概述我們的價值主張。在過去6 年裡，我們採取了必要措施，將NRG 定位在能源轉型的中心，這是一家消費能源企業，受益於我們經濟的日益電氣化，同時產生遠遠超出其業務需求的大量超額現金，這是一個補充性的智慧能源業務。家庭業務增加了客戶的終身價值，並能夠更好地優化客戶的能源需求和財務靈活性，以向股東返還大量資本，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。

As you can see, we delivered compelling value today. And importantly, we have positioned our business to deliver value well into the future. So with that, I'd like to turn to the 3 key messages of our earnings presentation on Slide 5. First, we are raising our 2023 financial guidance, driven by strong financial and operational results both in the third quarter and year-to-date. Second, we are initiating 2024 financial guidance above the plan we shared with you at our June Investor Day. And finally, with line of sight to achieving our 2025 growth road map, we are accelerating our focus on behind-the-meter load management opportunities for homes and businesses.

正如您所看到的，我們今天交付了引人注目的價值。重要的是，我們的業務定位是為未來創造價值。因此，我想談談幻燈片 5 中收益簡報的 3 個關鍵訊息。首先，在第三季和去年同期強勁的財務和營運績效的推動下，我們提高了 2023 年的財務指引。日期。其次，我們將在 6 月投資者日與您分享的計畫之上啟動 2024 年財務指引。最後，著眼於實現 2025 年成長路線圖，我們正在加速關注家庭和企業的用戶側負載管理機會。

Starting with our third quarter results on Slide 6. We delivered top decile safety performance and $973 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 103% improvement from the same period last year, driven primarily by strong operational performance across the business and the addition of Vivint. This brings our year-to-date results to $2.438 billion of adjusted EBITDA, a 74% increase above the prior year. On our last earnings call, we indicated that we were trending towards the top end of the guidance range.

從幻燈片6 上的第三季業績開始。我們實現了最高的十分位安全績效和9.73 億美元的調整後EBITDA，比去年同期增長了103%，這主要得益於整個業務強勁的營運績效以及Vivint 的加入。這使得我們今年迄今的調整後 EBITDA 達到 24.38 億美元，比上年增長 74%。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們表示我們正趨向指導範圍的上限。

With strong third quarter performance and our current outlook for the balance of the year, we are increasing and narrowing our 2023 financial guidance ranges, which includes the close of STP and an increase in the company's annual incentive plan given the expected outperformance for the year. During the quarter, we continued to make good progress on our strategic priorities. Vivint integration is well underway and with early success on our growth initiatives, we are raising again our 2023 target from $60 million to $75 million. This is a 150% increase from our original $30 million target set in May.

憑藉強勁的第三季業績和我們目前對今年剩餘時間的展望，我們正在提高和縮小 2023 年的財務指導範圍，其中包括結束 STP 以及鑑於今年的預期表現優異而增加公司的年度激勵計劃。本季度，我們在策略重點方面持續取得良好進展。 Vivint 整合正在順利進行，隨著我們的成長計畫取得初步成功，我們再次將 2023 年目標從 6,000 萬美元提高到 7,500 萬美元。這比我們 5 月設定的最初 3000 萬美元目標增加了 150%。

Also, during the quarter, we continued executing on our portfolio optimization efforts with the retirement of the Joliet power station and the sale of Gregory and our interest in STP. Turning to capital allocation. We are raising our 2023 share repurchase target by 15% to $1.15 billion. We have completed $200 million of share repurchases year-to-date. And with the close of STP, expect to execute the remaining $950 million under an accelerated share repurchase program. Next, we have executed $800 million of debt reduction as part of our liability management program. Bruce will provide more details in his section. Finally, we're initiating 2024 financial guidance ahead of our June Investor Day plan.

此外，在本季度，我們繼續執行我們的投資組合優化工作，包括喬利埃特發電廠的退休、格雷戈里的出售以及我們在 STP 中的權益。轉向資本配置。我們將 2023 年股票回購目標提高 15%，達到 11.5 億美元。年初至今，我們已完成價值 2 億美元的股票回購。隨著 STP 結束，預計將根據加速股票回購計畫執行剩餘的 9.5 億美元。接下來，作為負債管理計畫的一部分，我們執行了 8 億美元的債務削減。 Bruce 將在他的部分中提供更多詳細資訊。最後，我們將在 6 月投資者日計畫之前啟動 2024 年財務指引。

This earnings expansion is durable and represents high-quality growth and overall strengthening of our business. On capital allocation, we allocated $500 million to debt reduction and the remaining excess cash allocated 80% of return on capital and 20% to growth.

這種獲利成長是持久的，代表著我們業務的高品質成長和整體強化。在資本配置方面，我們分配5億美元削減債務，剩餘的多餘現金分配80%的資本回報率和20%的成長。

Now turning to Slide 7 for an update on our integrated energy business. We experienced the hottest summer on record in our core Texas market, breaking the previous peak demand record 10x. While the power grid was stressed given record demand, it performed quite well with only a few periods of scarcity pricing when renewable output was low. Importantly, the efforts we undertook in our summer readiness and spring outage program resulted in a significant increase in our plant reliability.

現在轉向幻燈片 7，了解我們綜合能源業務的最新情況。我們在德州核心市場經歷了有史以來最熱的夏季，打破了先前的高峰需求記錄 10 倍。儘管電網因創紀錄的需求而承受壓力，但其表現相當不錯，僅在再生能源發電量較低時出現了幾次稀缺定價。重要的是，我們在夏季準備和春季停電計劃中所做的努力顯著提高了工廠的可靠性。

In the bottom left-hand chart is our in-the-money availability, indicating the availability of our units during periods when they are profitable, which is a relevant metric for our business and shows a significant improvement. Retail saw strong performance through the quarter with in-line customer growth and better-than-expected retention. We continue to improve our digital experience with customers engaging more, increasing monthly average app usage by 20%.

左下方的圖表是我們的價內可用性，表示我們的單位在獲利期間的可用性，這是我們業務的相關指標，並顯示出顯著的改善。零售業本季表現強勁，客戶成長穩定，保留率優於預期。我們繼續改善我們的數位體驗，讓客戶參與更多，每月平均應用程式使用量增加 20%。

Moving to retail supply. The steps we have taken to enhance our diversified supply strategy, we're successful in providing predictable supply costs under different loads and price scenarios. Beyond investing in our plants, we adjusted our hedge ratios to lean long in key summer and winter months. Finally, we are beginning our efforts in residential demand response and have increased participation by 10% this year.

轉向零售供應。我們為加強多元化供應策略所採取的措施，成功地在不同負載和價格情況下提供了可預測的供應成本。除了投資工廠外，我們還調整了對沖比率，在關鍵的夏季和冬季月份傾向於做多。最後，我們開始致力於住宅需求響應，今年的參與度增加了 10%。

We also managed a large C&I demand response business with 2.5 gigawatts of capacity under management. I will provide more color on the behind-the-meter opportunity later in the presentation. Our Smart Home business also performed well with strong customer growth and margin expansion, as you can see on Slide 8. We continue to advance our technology platform with the launch of new innovative products, improving our customer experience that is consistently recognized as best in the industry by consumer publications.

我們也管理大型工商業需求響應業務，管理容量為 2.5 吉瓦。我將在稍後的演示中提供更多有關幕後機會的資訊。正如您在幻燈片8 中看到的那樣，我們的智慧家庭業務也表現良好，客戶成長強勁，利潤率擴大。我們透過推出新的創新產品繼續推進我們的技術平台，改善我們一直被公認為產業最佳的客戶體驗。消費者出版物的行業。

On the right-hand side of the slide, you will see the key performance indicators that we introduced in our last earnings call. We continue to see exceptional performance in Smart Home with 7% subscriber growth, 9% revenue growth and 9% service margin improvement versus the same period last year, consistent with the improvements we reported in our second quarter results. Acquisition costs are higher due to the impact of more products being sold and higher interest rates, but we're more than offset by higher revenue on new subscribers.

在投影片的右側，您將看到我們在上次財報電話會議中介紹的關鍵績效指標。我們持續看到智慧家庭領域的優異表現，與去年同期相比，用戶成長了7%，營收成長了9%，服務利潤率提高了9%，這與我們在第二季業績中報告的改善一致。由於銷售更多產品和更高利率的影響，購買成本更高，但新訂戶收入的增加足以抵消我們的影響。

Our customers are engaging more with our platform and are staying for a longer period of time. We are very encouraged by the performance we're seeing across the business and the opportunities that are arising inside the home. Now I want to provide an update on the opportunity for demand management we see behind the meter or Virtual Power Plants on Slide 9. We have been managing energy optimization programs for commercial and industrial customers for years. And now we are seeing a growing opportunity in the residential space. New distributed technologies and a growing penetration of connected smart devices in the home have materially changed the industry, providing greater control to the consumer.

我們的客戶更多地參與我們的平台，並且停留的時間更長。我們對整個業務的表現以及家庭內部出現的機會感到非常鼓舞。現在，我想提供有關我們在幻燈片 9 上看到的電錶或虛擬發電廠後面的需求管理機會的最新資訊。多年來，我們一直在為商業和工業客戶管理能源優化計劃。現在我們在住宅領域看到了越來越多的機會。新的分散式技術和家庭中聯網智慧型裝置的日益普及已經極大地改變了該行業，為消費者提供了更大的控制權。

Grid reliability has also played a role in accelerating adoption as flexible demand represents instantaneous peak in capacity when the grid is at peak load or in scarcity conditions. We see 2 primary pathways for us to create value in this market. First, through optimizing our existing customer peak demand in ERCOT and PJM where we can benefit from both energy and capacity value as well as reduce market risk. Second, through VPP services for Smart Home and utility customers, both in regulated and competitive markets. We are uniquely positioned to win this space. We have the scale with 7.6 million customers, decades of commercial and market expertise and an integrated energy business that allows NRG to monetize the value without having to go to the wholesale market or requiring regulatory change. We also have vast data and insights from running the third largest commercial and industrial demand response program in the country.

電網可靠性也在加速採用方面發揮了作用，因為當電網處於尖峰負載或稀缺條件時，靈活的需求代表容量的瞬時尖峰。我們認為在這個市場上創造價值有兩個主要途徑。首先，透過優化 ERCOT 和 PJM 中現有客戶的尖峰需求，我們可以從能源和容量價值中受益，並降低市場風險。其次，透過為智慧家庭和公用事業客戶提供 VPP 服務，無論是在受監管的市場還是競爭市場中。我們擁有獨特的優勢來贏得這一領域。我們擁有 760 萬客戶的規模、數十年的商業和市場專業知識以及綜合能源業務，使 NRG 無需進入批發市場或要求監管變革即可將價值貨幣化。我們還透過運行全國第三大商業和工業需求響應計劃獲得了大量數據和見解。

While our focus in the near term continues to be optimizing our core and integrating Vivint, over the medium and long term, we see a significant value opportunity from these programs. This value is not included in our June Investor Day plan, and I look forward to providing you updates on our progress in the future.

雖然我們近期的重點仍然是優化我們的核心並整合 Vivint，但從中長期來看，我們從這些計劃中看到了巨大的價值機會。該值未包含在我們的六月投資者日計劃中，我期待向您提供有關我們未來進展的最新資訊。

Moving to Slide 10 for an update on our integration efforts. We are making good progress across our initiatives and are reaffirming the full plan targets totaling $550 million of recurring free cash flow before growth by the end of 2025.

請前往投影片 10，以了解我們整合工作的最新情況。我們的各項措施取得了良好進展，並重申了到 2025 年底實現成長前經常性自由現金流總額達 5.5 億美元的完整計畫目標。

Our growth and cross-sell efforts have yielded strong results, allowing us to increase our 2023 growth target to $75 million. On the right-hand side of the slide, you will see the increasing number of customers buying 2 or more products. I want to highlight that this is not exclusively cross-sell between Energy and Smart Home, but includes other consumer products sold across NRG that generate recurring revenues. We have been hard at work executing pilots and collecting critical insights as we prepare to scale Energy and Smart Home cross-selling in 2024 and beyond. In the appendix of today's presentation, you will find our latest growth and cost plan scorecard, so you can track our progress.

我們的成長和交叉銷售努力取得了強勁成果，使我們能夠將 2023 年的成長目標提高到 7,500 萬美元。在投影片的右側，您將看到購買 2 種或更多產品的客戶數量不斷增加。我想強調的是，這不僅是能源和智慧家庭之間的交叉銷售，還包括 NRG 銷售的其他產生經常性收入的消費品。我們一直在努力執行試點並收集重要見解，準備在 2024 年及以後擴大能源和智慧家庭交叉銷售的規模。在今天簡報的附錄中，您將找到我們最新的成長和成本計畫記分卡，以便您可以追蹤我們的進度。

So with that, I will pass it over to Bruce for the financial review.

因此，我會將其交給布魯斯進行財務審查。

Thank you, Mauricio. Turning to Slide 12. NRG's third quarter and year-to-date financial performance significantly exceeded the same period last year. NRG produced adjusted EBITDA of $973 million in the quarter, which is $493 million higher than the third quarter of 2022. As you can see in the chart at the bottom of the page, even when normalizing 2022 results for transitory items and the WA Parish outage, 2023 adjusted EBITDA still exceeded the prior year by $350 million. Compared to a normalized 2022, third quarter 2023 performance was driven by $125 million of improved operations and margin expansion in our core energy business and $225 million of Vivint EBITDA, which was not included in our 2022 results.

謝謝你，毛里西奧。轉向投影片 12。NRG 第三季和年初至今的財務表現顯著超過去年同期。 NRG 本季調整後 EBITDA 為 9.73 億美元，比 2022 年第三季高出 4.93 億美元。正如您在頁面底部的圖表中看到的，即使將 2022 年臨時項目和西澳教區停電的結果標準化， 2023年調整後的EBITDA仍比前一年多3.5億美元。與正常化的2022 年相比，2023 年第三季的業績是由我們核心能源業務的1.25 億美元營運改善和利潤率擴張以及2.25 億美元的Vivint EBITDA 推動的，而這並未包含在我們2022年的業績中。

Similar to the first 2 quarters of the year, our core energy business continued to benefit from expanded margins, near record retention and increased customer count. Our diversified supply strategy and solid plant performance continued to provide predictable supply costs through volatile load and price conditions in Texas. Looking at our segments and starting of Texas, adjusted EBITDA increased by $356 million versus the prior year on the back of higher gross margin of $378 million. Continued unit margin expansion from lower supply costs coupled with improved plant performance were the primary drivers for the increase in gross margin.

與今年前兩個季度類似，我們的核心能源業務繼續受益於利潤率的擴大、接近創紀錄的保留率和客戶數量的增加。我們的多元化供應策略和穩定的工廠表現繼續在德克薩斯州波動的負荷和價格條件下提供可預測的供應成本。從我們的細分市場和德州開始來看，調整後的 EBITDA 比前一年增加了 3.56 億美元，毛利率提高到了 3.78 億美元。供應成本下降帶來的單位利潤率持續成長以及工廠績效的改善是毛利率成長的主要驅動力。

This increase in gross margin was partially offset by increased OpEx from higher selling and marketing and home energy where we increased 50,000 customers year-over-year. In the East West segment, adjusted EBITDA declined $88 million versus last year, driven primarily by lower spark spreads in Cottonwood, discontinuation of equity earnings treatment for Ivanpah and an increase in accruals as part of the company's annual incentive plan, reflecting the expected financial outperformance for the year.

毛利率的成長被銷售和行銷以及家庭能源增加帶來的營運支出增加部分抵消，其中我們比去年同期增加了 50,000 名客戶。在東西部業務中，調整後的EBITDA 比去年下降了8800 萬美元，主要是由於Cottonwood 的火花利差下降、Ivanpah 的股權收益處理終止以及作為公司年度激勵計劃的一部分的應計費用增加，反映了預期的財務表現今年。

In Q3, Vivint continued to deliver strong financial results, contributing $225 million in adjusted EBITDA. Revenue grew 9% year-over-year, driven by subscriber growth of 7%, favorable retention and higher recurring monthly revenue per subscriber, which, combined with reductions in monthly service cost per customer, drove a 15% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to 3Q 2022. NRG's free cash flow before growth was $355 million for the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $983 million. This represents a significant improvement over 2022 totals driven by growth in adjusted EBITDA.

第三季度，Vivint 繼續取得強勁的財務業績，調整後 EBITDA 貢獻 2.25 億美元。營收年增9%，主要得益於用戶成長7%、良好的留任率以及每位用戶每月經常性收入的增加，再加上每位客戶每月服務成本的降低，推動調整後EBITDA 與去年同期相比成長了15% 2022 年第三季。NRG 該季度成長前的自由現金流為 3.55 億美元，使我們年初至今的總額達到 9.83 億美元。在調整後 EBITDA 成長的推動下，這比 2022 年總量有了顯著改善。

As a result of our year-to-date financial performance, we are raising and narrowing our full year 2023 guidance ranges. $3.15 billion to $3.3 billion for adjusted EBITDA and $1.725 billion to $1.875 billion of free cash flow before growth. The midpoint of our new guidance represents a $95 million increase in adjusted EBITDA and a $60 million increase in free cash flow before growth to the midpoint of our original guidance ranges.

鑑於我們今年迄今的財務表現，我們正在提高和縮小 2023 年全年指引範圍。調整後 EBITDA 為 31.5 億美元至 33 億美元，成長前自由現金流為 17.25 億美元至 18.75 億美元。我們新指導範圍的中點代表調整後 ​​EBITDA 增加 9500 萬美元，自由現金流增加 6000 萬美元，然後才增長到我們原來指導範圍的中點。

Turning to Slide 13 for an update on our 2023 capital allocation. We have updated our 2023 excess cash to reflect the final net proceeds of divesting our interest in STP, the net proceeds from the sale of Gregory and the increase to our free cash flow midpoint for the year. The remaining numbers on this slide are largely consistent with the update we gave on the second quarter earnings call with a few notable exceptions. Moving from left to right, we have updated the capital we will spend on Vivint integration from $145 million to $50 million. This does not reflect lower cost associated with the integration but rather a shifting of those dollars to 2024 and 2025.

請參閱投影片 13，以了解 2023 年資本配置的最新情況。我們更新了 2023 年的超額現金，以反映剝離 STP 權益的最終淨收益、出售 Gregory 的淨收益以及今年自由現金流中點的增長。這張投影片上的其餘數字與我們在第二季財報電話會議上提供的更新基本一致，但有一些值得注意的例外。從左到右，我們將用於 Vivint 整合的資本從 1.45 億美元更新為 5,000 萬美元。這並不反映與整合相關的成本降低，而是將這些資金轉移到 2024 年和 2025 年。

Much of the move is driven by systems integration decisions, which shifted the time line for those costs to be incurred. Continuing on, as you can see in the debt reduction column, we have made significant progress toward our target of $1.4 billion in debt reduction with $800 million achieved through October 31 of this year. With the closing of the STP transaction, we will complete the remaining $600 million of debt reduction by the end of 2023 through a targeted liability management program.

大部分的舉措是由系統整合決策所推動的，這改變了這些成本發生時間軸。接下來，正如您在債務削減欄中看到的那樣，我們在實現 14 億美元債務削減的目標方面取得了重大進展，截至今年 10 月 31 日已實現 8 億美元。隨著 STP 交易的完成，我們將透過有針對性的負債管理計劃，在 2023 年底前完成剩餘的 6 億美元債務削減。

Finally, moving to the share repurchases column. You will see that we have completed $200 million of share repurchases thus far in 2023. This includes the $50 million we completed at the time of the second quarter earnings call and the $150 million we recently completed on October 31. With the closing of the STP transaction, we intend to launch a $950 million accelerated share repurchase program imminently. Between the $200 million already completed on the $950 million accelerated share repurchase program, our total share repurchases for the year will be $1.15 billion, which is $150 million more than what we had communicated at Investor Day and 2Q earnings.

最後，轉向股票回購欄。您將看到，2023 年迄今為止，我們已經完成了2 億美元的股票回購。這包括我們在第二季財報電話會議時完成的5,000 萬美元，以及我們最近在10 月31 日完成的1.5億美元。隨著STP 的結束交易完成後，我們打算立即啟動 9.5 億美元的加速股票回購計畫。在已完成的9.5 億美元加速股票回購計畫中的2 億美元中，我們今年的股票回購總額將達到11.5 億美元，比我們在投資者日和第二季財報中傳達的金額多出1.5億美元。

Moving to Slide 14. We are excited to introduce our guidance for 2024. We are guiding 2024 full year adjusted EBITDA with a range of $3.3 billion to $3.55 billion, representing a midpoint of $3.425 billion. We are also guiding 2024 free cash flow before growth with a range of $1.825 billion to $2.075 billion, representing a midpoint of $1.95 billion. As you can see on the chart at the bottom of the page, there are several drivers of year-over-year guidance. Incremental dividend EBITDA, reflecting a full year's worth of ownership is effectively offset by the lost EBITDA from the STP and Gregory asset sales.

轉向投影片 14。我們很高興介紹 2024 年的指引。我們指引 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 範圍為 33 億美元至 35.5 億美元，中間值為 34.25 億美元。我們也預期 2024 年成長前的自由現金流範圍為 18.25 億美元至 20.75 億美元，中間值為 19.5 億美元。正如您在頁面底部的圖表中看到的，逐年指導有幾個驅動因素。反映全年所有權價值的增量股息 EBITDA 被 STP 和 Gregory 資產出售損失的 EBITDA 有效抵銷。

Our growth plan and cost synergies contribute $240 million of incremental EBITDA, but is partially offset by an increase in the Vivint EBITDA harmonization adjustment. The final driver reflects a continuation of the improved operations and margin expansion impacting our 2023 results and contributes $160 million to our 2024 midpoint.

我們的成長計畫和成本綜效貢獻了 2.4 億美元的 EBITDA 增量，但部分被 Vivint EBITDA 協調調整的增加所抵銷。最終的驅動因素反映了營運改善和利潤擴張的持續影響我們 2023 年的業績，並為我們 2024 年的中點貢獻了 1.6 億美元。

As you can see, with the impact of improved operations and margin expansion, our 2024 guidance midpoint exceeds the pro forma we provided in our Investor Day plan. On Slide 15, we are providing our 2024 capital allocation plan. As you can see, our capital allocation plan adheres to the 80/20 principle of return of capital versus growth while ensuring we continue to meet our debt reduction commitments. Our plan currently calls for debt reduction of $500 million in 2024. As we've always said, we are committed to a strong balance sheet, and this debt reduction ensures that we remain on the path to achieving our target credit metrics by the end of 2025.

正如您所看到的，隨著營運改善和利潤率擴張的影響，我們的 2024 年指導中點超過了我們在投資者日計劃中提供的預估值。在投影片 15 上，我們提供了 2024 年資本配置計畫。正如您所看到的，我們的資本配置計劃遵循資本回報與成長 80/20 的原則，同時確保我們繼續履行我們的債務削減承諾。我們目前的計劃要求到2024 年減少5 億美元的債務。正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們致力於建立強大的資產負債表，而這種債務減少確保我們繼續走在2024 年底實現目標信用指標的在道路上。2025 年。

Our return of capital plan is comprised of $825 million of share repurchases and $330 million of common dividends. The common dividends reflect an 8% increase in the common dividend per share from $1.51 to $1.63. Between capital returned in 2023 and the expected capital return in 2024, we will have executed over 70% of our current share repurchase authorization and returned $2.65 billion to shareholders.

我們的資本回報計劃包括 8.25 億美元的股票回購和 3.3 億美元的普通股股息。普通股股息反映出每股普通股股息從 1.51 美元增加到 1.63 美元，增加了 8%。在 2023 年資本返還和 2024 年預期資本回報之間，我們將執行超過 70% 的當前股票回購授權，並向股東返還 26.5 億美元。

In summary, our third quarter and year-to-date results show robust financial performance across the company. And with our increased 2023 guidance, we are poised to close out the year in a strong position and enter 2024 on a similarly high note. We remain committed to executing the Investor Day plan we shared back in June, and our focus on maintaining a high level of operational performance will not waver as we head into the end of the year.

總之，我們第三季和年初至今的業績顯示了整個公司強勁的財務表現。隨著我們提高 2023 年指引，我們準備以強勁的勢頭結束這一年，並以同樣的高調進入 2024 年。我們仍然致力於執行我們在 6 月分享的投資者日計劃，並且在進入年底時我們對保持高水準營運績效的關注不會動搖。

With that, I'll turn it back to you, Mauricio.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給你，毛里西奧。

Thank you, Bruce. I want to provide a few closing thoughts on today's presentation on Slide 17. As you can see, we have made significant progress across all of our key priorities and are also ahead of the 5-year plan we provided to you during our Investor Day. I want to take a moment to thank all my colleagues at NRG for keeping focus on execution and for their hard work in achieving these results. We have the right strategy and the right team to deliver exceptional value today and well into the future.

謝謝你，布魯斯。我想就今天投影片17 的簡報提供一些結束語。正如您所看到的，我們在所有關鍵優先事項上都取得了重大進展，並且也領先於我們在投資者日期間向您提供的5 年計劃。我想花點時間感謝 NRG 的所有同事，感謝他們一直專注於執行，並為實現這些成果付出了辛勤的努力。我們擁有正確的策略和合適的團隊，可以在今天和未來提供卓越的價值。

So with that, I want to thank you for your time and interest in NRG. Darian, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

在此，我要感謝您對 NRG 的關注和關注。達里安，我們現在準備好提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自古根漢的 Shahriar Pourreza。

Bruce, can we just unpack the $160 million in improved ops and margins that you calling out in the '24 EBITDA guidance walk a little more. How much of that is margin expansion? And how sticky is that overall as we look to refine our models for '25 and beyond

Bruce，我們能否將您在 24 年 EBITDA 指導方針中提到的 1.6 億美元的營運和利潤改善內容再詳細解釋一下。其中有多少是利潤擴張？當我們希望為 25 年及以後完善我們的模型時，整體來說黏性有多大

Sure. Bruce?

當然。布魯斯？

Sure. So I would say that really, when you think about the $160 million, it's pretty much margin expansion across the entirety of the complex. So if we think about our home energy business, we're really seeing margin expansion there is really on 2 fronts. One is on revenue management, and on the cost of supply. So when you think about the durability of that, the revenue management side of it is really a function of the efforts we have done over the past several years around data-driven analysis to really make sure that we're targeting proper revenue rates for customers. And then on the cost of supply, that's really representing the benefits of our diversified supply strategy and just general better plant performance relative to history.

當然。所以我想說的是，當你想到 1.6 億美元時，這幾乎是整個綜合體的利潤擴張。因此，如果我們考慮一下我們的家庭能源業務，我們確實會在兩個方面看到利潤率的擴張。一是收入管理和供應成本。因此，當您考慮其持久性時，它的收入管理方面實際上是我們在過去幾年中圍繞數據驅動分析所做的努力的一個功能，以真正確保我們為客戶提供適當的收入率。然後就供應成本而言，這確實代表了我們多元化供應策略的好處以及相對於歷史而言整體更好的工廠績效。

On the C&I side, we are seeing margin expansion there, which we would also believe is durable. As we know, there has been volatility in the market, and customers are locking in higher revenue rates reflecting that volatility. And obviously, those contracts tend to be longer tenure. And so that should also provide durability. And then lastly, on the Smart Home side, as you saw with KPIs, we are seeing margin expansion both on the revenue front and higher revenue per subscriber as well as lower cost to serve as we continue to optimize that piece of the business. And again, given the long duration nature of those customers, we would expect that to also continue to be durable. So all in all, higher expansion on the margin side with durability.

在工商業方面，我們看到利潤率擴張，我們也認為這種成長是持久的。眾所周知，市場一直存在波動，客戶鎖定了反映這種波動的更高的收入率。顯然，這些合約的期限往往較長。因此這也應該提供耐用性。最後，在智慧家庭方面，正如您在 KPI 中看到的那樣，隨著我們繼續優化該業務，我們看到收入方面的利潤率不斷擴大，每個用戶收入增加，服務成本降低。同樣，考慮到這些客戶的長期性，我們預計這種情況也將持續持久。總而言之，利潤率方面的擴張更高，並且具有耐久性。

So Shar, I mean, this is really just a reflection of the improvements we have done in the business, and I see them as durable, sustainable for the foreseeable year.

所以，Shar，我的意思是，這實際上只是我們在業務中所做的改進的反映，我認為它們在可預見的一年裡是持久的、可持續的。

Perfect. And Mauricio, the '24 free cash flow conversion rate looks like it's in the mid to high 50s. I know you've indicated at the Analyst Day, your target is to step up through the plan, it's the mid to high 60s. Can you just walk us through how you see that stepping up and what kind of shape that may take, i.e., linear as we also continue to update our models?

完美的。 Mauricio，24 年的自由現金流轉換率看起來在 50 多歲左右。我知道您在分析師日表示，您的目標是逐步完成計劃，現在是 60 多歲。您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待這種升級以及可能採取什麼樣的形狀，即線性，因為我們也在繼續更新我們的模型？

Sure. Bruce, do you want to...

當然。布魯斯，你想...

Yes. I would say, sure, I think we continue to remain focused on that conversion rate. I don't think it will be linear because if you -- most of that conversion improvement is going to come from increasing the conversion at Vivint, right? And so if you remember, we provided some information that showed a free cash flow growth profile at Vivint going from $140 million to $445 million by the end of 2025. So that's a pretty steep increase in the cash flow at Vivint, which is really going to help to drive that conversion higher on a go-forward basis.

是的。我想說，當然，我認為我們將繼續關注轉換率。我不認為這會是線性的，因為如果你——大部分轉換率改進將來自於增加 Vivint 的轉換率，對吧？如果你還記得的話，我們提供的一些資訊顯示，到2025 年底，Vivint 的自由現金流增長情況將從1.4 億美元增至4.45 億美元。因此，Vivint 的現金流增長相當驚人，這確實在持續增長。幫助在未來的基礎上提高轉換率。

Got it. Perfect. And then lastly, Mauricio, just on a -- just a strategy question, I guess. Can you just update us on how you're kind of approaching the prospects for new builds in ERCOT. I know there's obviously a lot of existing assets in the market right now. We've seen Colin, we've seen Textgen. Would you have any interest in secondhand plants?

知道了。完美的。最後，毛里西奧，我想，只是一個策略問題。您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待 ERCOT 中新版本的前景？我知道現在市場上顯然有很多現有資產。我們見過 Colin，也見過 Textgen。您對二手植物有興趣嗎？

Sure. Well, as you know, Shar, we actually improved our diversified supply strategy. Some of it will be through own generation. Some will be through rent and to complement with market purchases. So the team is constantly looking at the economics between buying from the market, renting or buying assets from other and creating options internally to develop those facilities, either as brownfield development. So we're looking at all of it. We are evaluating the economics. At the end of the day, we are balancing operational risk, market risk, counterparty risk, that criteria permeates the evaluation that we're doing on all of these options.

當然。嗯，正如你所知，Shar，我們實際上改進了我們的多元化供應策略。其中一些將透過我們這一代實現。有些將透過租金並補充市場購買。因此，團隊不斷研究從市場購買、租賃或購買其他資產以及在內部創建開發這些設施（無論是棕地開發）之間的經濟性。所以我們正在研究這一切。我們正在評估經濟學。歸根結底，我們正在平衡操作風險、市場風險、交易對手風險，該標準滲透到我們對所有這些選項所做的評估中。

We are still awaiting to see changes in market design and other improvements to incentivize dispatchable generation. That also is going to shape the decisions that we're going to make. So as you can tell, this is not just a linear and a myopic view on assets to be -- to be bought in the market and development. We really also need to see what incentives are available given the changes in the regulatory construct in ERCOT. So I have said before that towards, I would say, the end of the year, we're going to have more visibility on those changes in ERCOT that is going to inform the next steps we're going to take.

我們仍在等待市場設計的變化和其他改進，以激勵可調度發電。這也將影響我們將要做出的決定。如您所知，這不僅僅是對在市場和開發中購買的資產的線性和短視的看法。鑑於 ERCOT 監管結構的變化，我們確實還需要看看有哪些激勵措施可用。所以我之前說過，到今年年底，我們將對 ERCOT 的這些變化有更多的了解，這將為我們接下來要採取的步驟提供資訊。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Look, just checking in first on the buyback here, just a technicality. Can we talk a little bit -- you have a big portion remaining for what you call code 2023. You want to talk about your ability to get that done? And then also how that might proves to be additive to kind of 2024 here, especially given the higher numbers that your guidance versus initial plan?

看，先檢查這裡的回購，只是技術問題。我們可以談談嗎？您還有很大一部分剩餘時間用於所謂的「代碼 2023」。您想談談您完成該任務的能力嗎？然後，這可能會如何證明對 2024 年的情況有所幫助，特別是考慮到您的指導數字與最初的計劃相比更高？

Sure, Julien. Yes. As we mentioned, we're going to do the ASR imminently, and that means as soon as possible. And what I will characterize the execution of that ASR, we're going to do it as fast and as efficient as we can. So I think that's the spirit and the intent launching this ASR as soon as possible.

當然，朱利安。是的。正如我們所提到的，我們將立即進行 ASR，這意味著盡快。我將描述 ASR 執行的特點，我們將盡可能快速、有效率地執行。所以我認為這就是盡快啟動此 ASR 的精神和意圖。

Julien, I would just add that as you know, when you do an ASR, we obviously realize the vast majority of the shares having been bought in pretty much on an immediate basis, but it takes time for the banks to be able to go and purchase those shares properly. And so my guess is, we would probably anticipate that the program will be completed inside of the first quarter of next year. But to us, that's actually a pretty good situation because then that provides the ability to then roll into a regular way share repurchase program related to our 2024 capital allocation plan to really continue to maintain the momentum on the repurchase front.

Julien，我想補充一點，正如你所知，當你進行 ASR 時，我們顯然意識到絕大多數股票幾乎是立即購買的，但銀行需要時間才能去和正確購買這些股票。所以我的猜測是，我們可能會預計該計劃將在明年第一季內完成。但對我們來說，這實際上是一個非常好的情況，因為這樣就可以進入與我們 2024 年資本配置計劃相關的常規股票回購計劃，以真正繼續保持回購方面的勢頭。

Got it. I appreciate that. Maybe just pivoting a little bit back here. I mean, obviously, very nicely done on '24, nicely done on the comments on keeping it sticky. And then Mauricio, next piece of this is, you've talked up this virtual Power Plant distributed opportunity on the call today in prior remarks, how do you see that feeding into a, what you're talking about in '24? I presume that's not really necessarily reflected in size. But at the same time, you talk up an opportunity there. I presume that there's a certain degree of customer election and choice in that. But how do you see that scaling here? When does that really meaningfully impacting -- and how meaningful are we talking here? I mean, I've heard some of your comments earlier, if you could elaborate.

知道了。我很感激。也許只是稍微回到這裡。我的意思是，顯然，24 年做得非常好，關於保持黏性的評論也做得很好。然後，毛里西奧，下一個問題是，您在今天的電話會議上在之前的演講中談到了這個虛擬發電廠分散式機會，您如何看待這對您在 24 年所談論的內容的影響？我認為這並不一定反映在尺寸上。但同時，你談論了那裡的機會。我認為其中存在一定程度的客戶選擇和選擇。但你如何看待這裡的縮放呢？這何時會真正產生有意義的影響——我們在這裡談論的意義有多大？我的意思是，我之前聽過你的一些評論，如果你能詳細說明一下的話。

Yes. So well, the first thing that I will say is that this opportunity is not included in the investor -- in the plan that we provided at Investor Day. The second thing I will say is just given the focus and the availability of technologies today, we are accelerating the scale-up of this opportunity. I initially thought that this was going to be a 5-plus year opportunity. What we are experiencing is that this is going to be able to be implemented and scaled up faster than that. I would say it's probably a 3-plus year.

是的。那麼，我要說的第一件事是，這個機會並不包含在投資者中——我們在投資者日提供的計劃中。我要說的第二件事是，考慮到當今技術的焦點和可用性，我們正在加速擴大這個機會。我原本以為這會是一個五年多的機會。我們正在經歷的是，這將能夠比這更快地實施和擴大規模。我想說這可能是三年多的時間。

And I provided some initial numbers that I think are very realistic on what we can accomplish. So if you look at a 1 gigawatt VR position in Texas this past summer, it represented close to $200 million of gross margin. And 1 gigawatt for our portfolio is basically less than 10% of the the peak load that we currently serve. So it's very achievable. And that gives you just some indication that you're not talking here about a small opportunity. You're talking here about a very large opportunity. The other thing that I will say is that this product that we're talking about is really leveraging the devices that we use to protect homes plus the distributed technologies available today, to help consumers optimize demand.

我提供了一些初步數字，我認為這些數字對於我們能夠實現的目標非常現實。因此，如果你看看去年夏天德克薩斯州 1 吉瓦的 VR 設備，它代表著接近 2 億美元的毛利率。我們的產品組合的 1 吉瓦基本上不到我們目前服務的尖峰負載的 10%。所以這是非常可以實現的。這只是給你一些暗示，表明你在這裡談論的並不是一個小機會。你在這裡談論的是一個非常大的機會。我要說的另一件事是，我們正在談論的這款產品實際上是利用我們用來保護家庭的設備以及當今可用的分散式技術來幫助消費者優化需求。

Don't think of this as a conservation effort -- opt-in conservation effort. This is about optimizing and about convenience for our customers. So it is a very different product from the traditional VR. That's why we're calling it more as an optimization of the energy demand behind the meter as opposed to a traditional demand response. That's why we're so excited because this is something that consumers want. And this is something that NRG is uniquely positioned not only to provide to consumers, but to be able to monetize that value in the wholesale market. There is no other entity with the scale of NRG that can do that today. That's why we are an early mover on this.

不要認為這是一項保育工作－選擇加入保育工作。這是為了優化和為我們的客戶提供便利。所以它是一個與傳統VR非常不同的產品。這就是為什麼我們更多地將其稱為電錶後面能源需求的最佳化，而不是傳統的需求響應。這就是為什麼我們如此興奮，因為這是消費者想要的東西。 NRG 擁有獨特的優勢，不僅能夠向消費者提供這項服務，而且能夠在批發市場上將這種價值貨幣化。如今，沒有任何其他實體能夠達到 NRG 的規模。這就是為什麼我們是這方面的先行者。

Awesome. Excellent. Just a quick clarification from the last question from Shar. When he asked you about acquisitions or divestments, I presume that what we saw with Gregory here is perhaps an indication of the margin of continued divestment on the margin of your portfolio as you move over time, right? We should set the expectation that more of these kinds of transactions are in the wings. Again, I get that Gregory was a very specific back pattern here (inaudible).

驚人的。出色的。只是對 Shar 的最後一個問題進行快速澄清。當他問你有關收購或撤資的問題時，我認為我們在格雷戈里身上看到的情況可能表明，隨著時間的推移，你的投資組合的邊際將持續撤資，對嗎？我們應該預期更多此類交易即將發生。再次，我知道格雷戈里在這裡是一個非常具體的背部模式（聽不清楚）。

I think we're, for the most part, done on the optimization front. I mean remember, the optimization of our portfolio is driven by what we need to serve our load in the best possible way. STP, I already talked at great length, it's block power, it is not necessarily -- it is not flexible. It doesn't move. We can replace that in the market. Gregory was also very specific. This is basically a plant that was built to provide steam to a host.

我認為我們在優化方面已經完成了大部分工作。我的意思是記住，我們的投資組合的最佳化是由我們需要以最佳方式服務我們的負載所驅動的。 STP，我已經講得很長了，它是塊力量，它不一定——它不靈活。它不動。我們可以在市場上替換它。格雷戈里也非常具體。這基本上是一個為主機提供蒸氣的工廠。

So it really didn't do the -- provided the attributes or the characteristics that we wanted from a flexible asset. I think after Gregory and STP, I would say our optimization efforts are largely done.

所以它確實沒有提供我們想要從靈活資產中獲得的屬性或特徵。我認為在 Gregory 和 STP 之後，我想說我們的優化工作已經基本完成。

Our next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski from Seaport.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So first, on Vivint. So one, I was just wondering if you heard any feedback from your activist investor about how holding on to Vivint is working out for you and the stock. So that's one. And number two is, so you mentioned a number of positive updates on Vivint, One of the main ones at least that stuck up with me is the basically lower attrition. So is it fair to say that the higher interest rates and thus lower migration is actually what's benefiting your platform. Again, not something I would ever think to link higher interest rates as a benefit for a business like yours, but it feels that way.

首先，關於Vivint。因此，我只是想知道您是否從您的積極投資者那裡聽到了關於持有 Vivint 對您和股票有何影響的反饋。這就是其中之一。第二點是，你提到了 Vivint 上的一些積極更新，至少讓我印象深刻的主要更新之一是基本上較低的流失率。因此，可以公平地說，較高的利率和較低的遷移實際上對您的平台有利。再說一遍，我從來沒有想過要將更高的利率與像你們這樣的企業的好處聯繫起來，但感覺就是這樣。

Yes, Angie. So let me take the first one, and then I'm going to ask Rasesh to answer your second question. The focus of the management team and the company is to execute on our consumer strategy. And I think what you're seeing in the last 2 quarters is that we are basically delivering on the commitments that we provided to all of you at Investor Day. That's our focus.

是的，安吉。那麼，讓我回答第一個問題，然後我將請拉塞什回答你的第二個問題。管理團隊和公司的重點是執行我們的消費者策略。我認為您在過去兩個季度中看到的是，我們基本上兌現了我們在投資者日向大家提供的承諾。這是我們的重點。

I have been on the road, talking to investors to help them better understand the strategy to help them better understand, the value proposition that this consumer strategy represents. And not just to the activist but to all shareholders, and that has been our focus. That's what we can do as a company, as a management team, and I am very pleased with the results that we're delivering. And I think shareholders, in general, are appreciating the value of our consumer strategy. But I will say that also market participants as a whole, whether it's ISOs or whether it is the regulators, they're starting to see the benefit and the opportunities that demand represents to better manage the entire power grid given the greater electrification that we're going to see in the years to come. So I think that's finally happening. But Rasesh, the second question can you address it?

我一直在路上與投資者交談，幫助他們更好地理解該策略，幫助他們更好地理解該消費者策略所代表的價值主張。不僅對維權人士，也對所有股東，這一直是我們關注的焦點。這就是我們作為一家公司、作為一個管理團隊可以做的事情，我對我們所交付的結果感到非常滿意。我認為股東總體上正在欣賞我們消費者策略的價值。但我想說的是，作為一個整體的市場參與者，無論是ISO 還是監管機構，他們都開始看到需求所帶來的好處和機會，以便更好地管理整個電網，因為我們的電氣化程度更高。未來幾年我們將會看到。所以我認為這終於發生了。但是 Rasesh，第二個問題你能解決嗎？

You bet. I think the results reflect the strong value proposition that we provide to consumers. If you think about a 7% subscriber growth. We are also seeing an increase in the number of products, each subscriber is actually taking and so 5% growth in recurring revenue. Simultaneously, the cost to serve customers is down 19% on a unit basis year-over-year. And as you mentioned, one of the most powerful aspects of the value proposition is the near -- this is a record low attrition rate for us in this economy to have a 9-year customer life.

你打賭。我認為結果反映了我們為消費者提供的強大價值主張。如果你考慮一下 7% 的訂閱者成長。我們也看到每個訂戶實際購買的產品數量增加，因此經常性收入增加了 5%。同時，單位客戶服務成本較去年同期下降了 19%。正如您所提到的，價值主張最強大的方面之一是近期——在這個經濟體中，我們擁有 9 年的客戶壽命，這是創紀錄的低流失率。

When you bring these things together, combined with the fact that the average consumer is engaging with our product 33% more than they were this time last year, it's a really robust flywheel that results in just improving customer lifetime value. And so we feel really good about the business, and we think there's a long runway ahead for growth.

當你將這些因素結合在一起時，再加上普通消費者對我們產品的參與度比去年同期增加了 33%，這是一個非常強大的飛輪，可以提高客戶終身價值。因此，我們對這項業務感覺非常好，我們認為成長還有很長的路要走。

Okay. Just 1 follow-up on Vivint. So Rasesh, you remember, as you said yourself, you're bringing forward this [DR] driven growth on the Vivint side. I thought that the reason why we had expected the growth to materialize on the '25 and beyond was because you actually needed some software upgrades, some sort of investments to facilitate that growth. So have you pulled those forward, hence, the growth is materializing earlier?

好的。 Vivint 僅有 1 個後續行動。 Rasesh，你記得，正如你自己所說，你正在 Vivint 方面推動這種 [DR] 驅動的成長。我認為我們之所以預計成長會在 25 年及以後實現，是因為您實際上需要一些軟體升級、某種投資來促進成長。那麼，您是否將這些向前推進，從而使成長更早實現？

Yes. So I will say -- and we literally just finished a pilot where we are connecting our smart home technology to our commercial operations. So let me take a little bit of a step back. We already have our residential demand response program on our traditional energy business, and that is connected to the backbone of our commercial operations to make sure that we optimize the system. What we've been doing the last couple of weeks is to connect now the smart home technology platform to our commercial operations backbone.

是的。所以我想說——我們實際上剛剛完成了一個試點，將我們的智慧家庭技術與我們的商業營運連接起來。那麼讓我退後一步。我們已經在傳統能源業務上製定了住宅需求響應計劃，該計劃與我們商業運營的支柱相連，以確保我們優化系統。過去幾週我們一直在做的是將智慧家庭技術平台連接到我們的商業營運骨幹網路。

That was very successful. That's why I said that we are accelerating those efforts and instead of being a 5-plus-year opportunity, I see that as a 3-plus-year opportunity. The improvements and the investment that we need to do on the technology backbone is included in that 20% of growth. We're not going to increase that. What I'm saying is that there is the need by the consumer and quite candidly, by the power grid to accelerate these efforts. So really, really good progress there, Angie.

那是非常成功的。這就是為什麼我說我們正在加速這些努力，我認為這不是一個五年多的機會，而是一個三年多的機會。我們需要在技術骨幹上所做的改進和投資都包含在這20%的成長中。我們不會增加這個數量。我想說的是，消費者和電網都需要加快這些努力。安吉，進展非常非常好。

Okay. And then the last question, and again, I understand the explanation behind the divestiture of STP. And I see that the EBITDA contribution from Gregory was very small. But you're getting shorter and shorter power in Texas. And again, I know that not for a given summer because you hedge, but we just survived this summer, I mean better than survived. But anyway, I mean, all of these conservation alerts from ERCOT are causing anxiety among us and your investors, I'm sure. So just strategically speaking, getting rid of more power plants in Texas, how do we manage this risk of matching the retail load with self-generation in Texas?

好的。最後一個問題，我再次理解剝離 STP 背後的解釋。我發現格雷戈里的 EBITDA 貢獻非常小。但德州的供電時間越來越短。再說一遍，我知道這不是在某個特定的夏天，因為你對沖了，但我們剛剛度過了這個夏天，我的意思是比倖存下來更好。但無論如何，我確信，ERCOT 發出的所有這些保護警報正在引起我們和您的投資者的焦慮。因此，從戰略上講，擺脫德克薩斯州更多的發電廠，我們如何管理將德克薩斯州的零售負載與自發電相匹配的風險？

Yes. So Angie, let me just say 2 things. Number one, we are -- when we serve our customers, we're not short. We're actually leaning long. We don't have to own every megawatt or produce every megawatt that we sell to our customers. That will be the first thing. The second thing is, and perhaps to your point about ERCOT, when I think about the market, my view is that the marginal unit, which means the most cost-efficient unit today is renewable energy. It's going to be wind and solar, intermittent generation. That's 0 variable cost generation.

是的。安吉，讓我說兩件事。第一，當我們為客戶提供服務時，我們並不短缺。我們實際上是在長期傾斜。我們不必擁有出售給客戶的每一兆瓦特或生產每一兆瓦特。這是第一件事。第二件事是，也許就您對 ERCOT 的觀點而言，當我考慮市場時，我的觀點是邊際單位，這意味著當今最具成本效益的單位是可再生能源。它將是風能和太陽能，間歇性發電。這是零變動成本的產生。

What that means is that for the most part of ours in the market is going to clear at a very low price except for those periods where perhaps renewable is not performing as normal because the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. So you're going to see very few periods of scarcity conditions. But for the most part, the rest of the intervals, the rest of the hours are going to be very low priced. So that's why demand response and the optimizing demand management is also important because that basically gives you instantaneous peaking capacity exactly for the duration that you want, which is very short durations.

這意味著，市場上大部分的產品將以非常低的價格出清，除非再生能源表現不佳，因為沒有風，沒有陽光。因此，您將很少會看到稀缺狀況。但在大多數情況下，剩餘的時間間隔、剩餘的時間的價格將會非常低。這就是為什麼需求回應和最佳化需求管理也很重要，因為這基本上為您提供了您想要的持續時間（非常短的持續時間）內的瞬時峰值容量。

I think we have -- the improvement that we have made on our supply strategy is very consistent with what we expect the market to behave in the future, and the opportunity around demand management is, again, completely consistent with that expectation in terms of price formation and market behavior. So I believe we have positioned the company very, very well for the foreseeable future. And I will just say one more thing. We literally experienced the hottest summer on record in Texas, and the grid handled it very well. The only time when we saw a scarcity pricing was really at periods where we had low renewable output. And even there, ERCOT was managing the grid very conservatively. So I will say that for those of you who really wanted to test the ERCOT market and the improved supply strategy that we have at NRG, this was the test, and we passed with high flying colors, I think.

我認為我們在供應策略上所做的改進與我們對未來市場表現的預期非常一致，而圍繞需求管理的機會再次與價格方面的預期完全一致形成和市場行為。因此，我相信在可預見的未來，我們對公司的定位非常非常好。我還要再說一件事。我們確實經歷了德克薩斯州有史以來最熱的夏天，電網處理得很好。我們唯一一次看到稀缺定價實際上是在再生能源產量較低的時期。即使在那裡，ERCOT 也非常保守地管理電網。所以我想說，對於那些真正想測試 ERCOT 市場和 NRG 改進的供應策略的人來說，這就是測試，我認為我們出色地通過了。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from [Mr. Michael Sullivan] of Wolfe.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自[先生]。麥可·沙利文]沃爾夫。

Just wanted to follow on 1 of the questions from earlier in terms of the growth target realization, looking like that's coming in a little bit sooner than expected. Does that indicate any potential upside to the 2025 number of $300 million run rate?

只是想跟進早期關於成長目標實現的問題之一，看起來這個問題比預期要早一點。這是否表明 2025 年 3 億美元的運行率有任何潛在的上升空間？

I think right now, we're comfortable accelerating the 2023 target, just given the success on our growth and cross-sell. I think it's early to start thinking about moving the $300 million by 2025. What I will say is that, that road map does not include the VPP or demand side management potential. And that's something that we're going to be talking to all of you, quantifying it and how big can it be and when can we start realizing it. So that's more to come there.

我認為，鑑於我們在成長和交叉銷售方面取得的成功，我們現在很樂意加速實現 2023 年的目標。我認為現在開始考慮到 2025 年轉移 3 億美元還為時過早。我要說的是，該路線圖不包括 VPP 或需求面管理潛力。這就是我們將要與大家討論的事情，對其進行量化，它可以有多大，我們什麼時候可以開始實現它。所以還有更多的事情要做。

Okay. Great. And then just specifically on the ERCOT portfolio. Next week's vote on the loan bill. Does that drive any decision-making in terms of optimization of the fleet or newbuild or anything like that?

好的。偉大的。然後專門針對 ERCOT 產品組合。下週將對貸款法案進行投票。這是否會推動在優化船隊或新建船舶或類似方面做出任何決策？

Yes. I mean it is one more data point that we're going to take into consideration. I think the first step for the loan program, it is the vote. And then the second step is the rules around how the loan program is going to work. Obviously, all market participants are looking at it, and we will -- again, it will be one more data point for us to inform our supply strategy, but it is only one more data point.

是的。我的意思是，這是我們要考慮的另一個數據點。我認為貸款計劃的第一步是投票。第二步是關於貸款計劃如何運作的規則。顯然，所有市場參與者都在關注這一點，我們將再次強調，這將是我們為供應策略提供資訊的另一個數據點，但這只是另一個數據點。

Our final question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞安·萊文 (Ryan Levine) 與花旗集團的對話。

Hoping to start off something more on the strategic side. At the Analyst Day, you indicated an aversion to larger, strategic acquisitions. Given that the free cash flow picture is becoming more favorable and maybe pricing for assets is going down, how committed are you to that vision? And you think you highlight some potential VPP and power plant opportunities. Is there any scope around what type of incremental capital that could enable?

希望在策略方面開始更多的事情。在分析師日，您表示厭惡規模更大的策略性收購。鑑於自由現金流狀況變得更加有利，而且資產定價可能正在下降，您對這一願景的承諾程度如何？您認為您強調了一些潛在的 VPP 和發電廠機會。是否存在可以實現哪種類型的增量資本的範圍？

Well, the first thing I will say is, and as I mentioned on the Investor Day, we don't see any more acquisitions. Second, we are completely committed to this capital allocation framework of 80% of return, 20% to growth; and third, the 20% each inclusive of the opportunity that we see on VPP. So we will continue on tacking what that opportunity is and the investment, but it will be contained within the 20% during the planning period that we provided to you.

好吧，我要說的第一件事是，正如我在投資者日提到的那樣，我們沒有看到更多的收購。第二，我們完全致力於這個80%回報、20%成長的資本配置架構；第三，各 20% 包含我們在 VPP 上看到的機會。因此，我們將繼續關注這個機會和投資，但在我們提供給您的規劃期內，它將控制在 20% 以內。

Okay. I appreciate the clarification. And then 1 more on the modeling side. In terms of the Vivint subscriber acquisition costs coming up and that subscriber acquisition costs coming up. What's driving that? And what are you seeing from a trend standpoint in terms of customer acquisitions.

好的。我很感謝您的澄清。然後是建模方面的 1 個。就 Vivint 即將到來的訂戶獲取成本而言，以及即將到來的訂戶獲取成本。是什麼推動了這一點？從客戶獲取趨勢的角度來看，您看到了什麼？

Rasesh?

拉塞什？

Yes. It's really a function of 2 things. One is the increase in interest rates year-over-year and 2 is a function of the consumer buying more products when they take our service. And on the second point, we feel very good about both the payback period as well as the IRR. You see the boost in recurring revenue per subscriber that's disclosed in the KPIs. I want to remind you that that's across the entire 2.1 million subscriber base. If you were to only look at the new customer acquisition cohort, the revenue increase -- the service revenue increase is even more substantive than that. And so we feel very good about the payback of that incremental investment in the consumer as they take more products from us.

是的。它實際上是兩件事的函數。一是利率逐年增加，二是消費者在接受我們的服務時購買更多產品的函數。關於第二點，我們對投資回收期和內部報酬率都感覺非常好。您會看到 KPI 中揭露的每訂閱者經常性收入的成長。我想提醒您的是，這涉及整個 210 萬訂閱者群。如果你只看新客戶獲取群體，收入的成長－服務收入的成長甚至比這更實質。因此，隨著消費者從我們這裡購買更多產品，我們對消費者增量投資的回報感到非常滿意。

Is the customer composition or the customer mix evolving or any comments you're able to make around the characteristics of your new subscriber set?

客戶組成或客戶組合是否不斷變化，或者您能否針對新訂戶群的特徵發表任何評論？

No. Other than the new customers are sort of taking more product as we continue to expand our product portfolio, there's no change in the mix. We have a very, very high-quality subscriber base type credit scores, and so it is a very resilient business from that standpoint.

不會。隨著我們繼續擴大產品組合，除了新客戶會購買更多產品外，產品組合沒有任何變化。我們擁有非常非常高品質的使用者基礎類型信用評分，因此從這個角度來看，這是一項非常有彈性的業務。

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Mauricio Gutierrez for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想請毛里西奧·古鐵雷斯 (Mauricio Gutierrez) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Darian. Well, I'd like to thank all of you for your interest in the company and your support and look forward to providing you updates in the future. Thank you.

謝謝你，達里安。好吧，我要感謝大家對公司的興趣和支持，並期待將來為您提供最新資訊。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束。