NRG Energy Inc (NRG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NRG Energy Inc. Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kevin Cole, Head of Investor Relations.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 NRG Energy Inc. 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者，投資者關係主管 Kevin Cole。

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length and is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations and Webcasts.

謝謝你，喬希。早上好，歡迎來到 NRG Energy 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天上午的電話會議時長 45 分鐘，將通過電話和網絡廣播進行現場直播，網絡廣播位於我們網站 www.nrg.com 的“投資者”部分的“演示文稿和網絡廣播”下。

Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements which are based upon assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law.

請注意，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為截至目前合理的假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們敦促大家審查今天演示文稿中的安全港以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中的風險因素。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。

In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Mauricio Gutierrez, NRG's President and CEO.

此外，我們將同時參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。有關我們的非 GAAP 財務措施以及與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬信息，請參閱今天的演示文稿。有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給 NRG 的總裁兼首席執行官 Mauricio Gutierrez。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in NRG. I'm joined this morning by Alberto Fornaro, Chief Financial Officer. And also on the call and available for questions, we have Elizabeth Killinger, Head of Home, Rob Gaudette, Head of Business and Market Ops; and Chris Moser, our Head of Competitive Markets and Policy.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早上好，感謝您對 NRG 的關注。今天早上，首席財務官 Alberto Fornaro 加入了我的行列。家庭主管 Elizabeth Killinger、業務和市場運營主管 Rob Gaudette 也在電話會議上回答問題；以及我們的競爭市場和政策主管 Chris Moser。

Starting on Slide 4 with our key messages for today's presentation. We have made significant progress in advancing our strategic priorities in 2022. And while our financial results were lower than expected, our business is well positioned in 2023.

從幻燈片 4 開始，介紹我們今天演示的關鍵信息。我們在推進 2022 年的戰略重點方面取得了重大進展。雖然我們的財務業績低於預期，但我們的業務在 2023 年處於有利地位。

Today, we are reaffirming our 2023 financial guidance ranges. The Vivint Smart Home acquisition is on track to close by the end of the first quarter. Today, we are providing further disclosures around revenue synergies to ensure you have additional tools to properly value the transaction.

今天，我們重申 2023 年的財務指導範圍。對 Vivint Smart Home 的收購有望在第一季度末完成。今天，我們將提供有關收入協同效應的進一步披露，以確保您有更多工具來正確評估交易。

Finally, the core of NRG is strong, supported by favorable fundamentals. The acquisition of Vivint enhances our ability to achieve our free cash flow before growth per share targets.

最後，在有利的基本面支持下，NRG 的核心實力強勁。收購 Vivint 增強了我們實現每股增長目標之前的自由現金流的能力。

Now turning to Slide 5 for the financial and operational results of 2022. Beginning with our scorecard for the year, we executed well across our strategic priorities. We delivered our second consecutive year of record safety performance. For me, it always starts and ends with the wellbeing of our people. I want to thank everyone at NRG for staying focused during a challenging year.

現在轉到幻燈片 5，了解 2022 年的財務和運營結果。從我們今年的記分卡開始，我們在戰略重點方面執行得很好。我們連續第二年實現了創紀錄的安全績效。對我來說，它始終以我們人民的福祉為起點和終點。我要感謝 NRG 的每個人在充滿挑戰的一年中保持專注。

Our retail group took deliberate actions to manage price volatility and delivered record customer retention and extended the average term of a new customer to 2 years. Also, our bad debt remained below historical levels despite higher inflation and tightening financial conditions. Our plant operations performance was below expectations, primarily impacted by the outage at W.A. Parish right before the summer.

我們的零售集團採取了慎重的行動來管理價格波動並實現了創紀錄的客戶保留率，並將新客戶的平均期限延長至 2 年。此外，儘管通脹上升和金融環境收緊，我們的壞賬仍低於歷史水平。我們的工廠運營績效低於預期，主要是受到夏季前夕 W.A. Parish 停電的影響。

We are taking additional steps to strengthen our supply and mitigate operational risk during specific conditions.

我們正在採取額外措施來加強我們的供應並降低特定條件下的運營風險。

The direct energy integration is nearing completion and on track to deliver our run rate synergy targets in 2023. We executed on our Test & Learn program during the year, which culminated in the announcement of the Vivint Smart Home acquisition. We also continue our portfolio optimization with 2 gigawatts of coal retirements and asset sales.

直接能源整合即將完成，並有望在 2023 年實現我們的運行率協同目標。我們在這一年中執行了測試與學習計劃，最終宣布收購 Vivint Smart Home。我們還通過 2 吉瓦的煤炭退役和資產出售繼續我們的投資組合優化。

Finally, on capital allocation, we executed $645 million of share repurchases out of the $1 billion program. We will execute the remaining amount when cash is available and when we have full visibility to achieve our targeted credit metrics.

最後，在資本配置方面，我們從 10 億美元的計劃中執行了 6.45 億美元的股票回購。我們將在現金可用時執行剩餘金額，並且我們可以完全了解以實現我們的目標信用指標。

We also increased our dividend by 8%. Since it was reestablished in 2020, we have raised our dividend more than 25% and returned almost $1 billion to shareholders this way. I view our dividend as an integral part of our return on capital policy.

我們還將股息提高了 8%。自 2020 年重建以來，我們已將股息提高了 25% 以上，並通過這種方式向股東返還了近 10 億美元。我認為我們的股息是我們資本回報政策的一個組成部分。

Moving to financial results. We delivered $435 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter bringing our 2022 full year result to $1.754 billion, below expectations. For the fourth quarter, we highlighted in our last earnings call that reaching the bottom end of the financial guidance included a little over $100 million of optimization opportunities. Specifically, making our natural gas units available to capture value during periods of high power prices.

轉到財務結果。我們在第四季度實現了 4.35 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，使我們 2022 年的全年業績達到 17.54 億美元，低於預期。對於第四季度，我們在上次財報電話會議中強調，達到財務指導的底端包括略高於 1 億美元的優化機會。具體來說，就是讓我們的天然氣裝置可以在高電價期間獲取價值。

This opportunity did not materialize. As mild weather during the quarter, the power price is much lower than expected. We were also impacted by Winter Storm Elliott in late December, primarily from PJM capacity performance payments, where we risk adjusted downward our bonus payments pending additional information from PJM. Alberto will provide more information on our financial results.

這個機會沒有實現。由於本季度天氣溫和，電價遠低於預期。 12 月下旬，我們還受到冬季風暴 Elliott 的影響，主要來自 PJM 產能績效支付，我們可能會下調獎金支付，等待 PJM 提供更多信息。 Alberto 將提供有關我們財務業績的更多信息。

Turning to Slide 6, on our 2023 outlook. We are reaffirming our 2023 financial guidance. We see improving fundamentals in our business, including more stable supply costs driven by lower natural gas prices, less supply chain issues for coal and chemicals, more favorable retail market conditions in the East and economic resilience in our customer base.

轉到幻燈片 6，了解我們的 2023 年展望。我們重申我們的 2023 年財務指南。我們看到我們業務的基本面有所改善，包括天然氣價格下降導致供應成本更加穩定、煤炭和化學品供應鏈問題減少、東部零售市場條件更加有利以及我們客戶群的經濟彈性。

In the East, we see opportunity for customer growth given rising rates from public utilities, enabling competitive retailers to demonstrate the value of our services to customers on an equal playing field.

在東方，我們看到了客戶增長的機會，因為公用事業費率不斷上升，使有競爭力的零售商能夠在平等的競爭環境中向客戶展示我們服務的價值。

In Texas, the Public Utility Commission proposed market design improvements that will result in more dispatchable generation and greater reliability of the electric grid. I want to commend the Texas Governor's office, legislature, PUCT and ERCOT for taking swift action to enhance grid resilience while ensuring the integrity of the competitive market.

在得克薩斯州，公用事業委員會提議改進市場設計，這將導致更多的可調度發電和更高的電網可靠性。我要讚揚得克薩斯州州長辦公室、立法機構、PUCT 和 ERCOT 採取迅速行動來增強電網彈性，同時確保競爭市場的完整性。

Also, retail competition will open in (inaudible), Texas in the fall, a city with more than 100,000 electric customers. We look forward to having the opportunity to earn and serve customers in that area later this year.

此外，零售競賽將於秋季在得克薩斯州（聽不清）舉行，該市擁有超過 100,000 名電力客戶。我們期待今年晚些時候有機會在該地區贏得和服務客戶。

In 2023, we will continue executing on our strategic priorities focusing on strengthening our core business while growing ideation products and services, as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide. We continue our focus on optimizing our portfolio to better serve our customers. To that effect, we are targeting $500 million in net cash proceeds from asset sales by the end of the year.

2023 年，我們將繼續執行我們的戰略重點，重點是加強我們的核心業務，同時增加創意產品和服務，如幻燈片右側所示。我們繼續專注於優化我們的產品組合，以更好地為我們的客戶服務。為此，我們的目標是到今年年底從資產出售中獲得 5 億美元的淨現金收益。

Having completed our Test & Learn phase in 2022, we are now focused on the next phase of our strategic road map, growing the business. This includes completing the direct energy integration and increasing the number of customers that purchase multiple products from us.

在 2022 年完成測試和學習階段後，我們現在專注於戰略路線圖的下一階段，即發展業務。這包括完成直接能源整合和增加從我們這裡購買多種產品的客戶數量。

Today, we have sold more than one product to 15% of our customers. We are making good progress on cross-selling and will provide additional disclosures as we integrate Vivint. To support this growth, we will continue to strengthen our power supply by expanding our capital-light PPA program for renewables to dispatchable generation at some of our existing sites.

今天，我們已經向 15% 的客戶銷售了不止一種產品。我們在交叉銷售方面取得了良好進展，並將在整合 Vivint 時提供額外的披露。為支持這一增長，我們將繼續加強我們的電力供應，將我們針對可再生能源的輕資本 PPA 計劃擴展到我們一些現有站點的可調度發電。

Finally, we are on track to close Vivint in the first quarter with all regulatory approvals received and no shareholder required. We expect to close financing soon and have begun day one integration efforts.

最後，我們有望在第一季度關閉 Vivint，並獲得所有監管批准且不需要股東。我們預計很快就會完成融資，並已開始第一天的整合工作。

I want to provide additional insights on how Vivint enhances our core energy platform and brings additional capabilities at scale on Slide 7. Vivint is a leader in Smart Home solutions with nearly 2 million highly engaged customers with an average life of 9 years. Their system brings together automation, security and residential solar under a single proprietary technology and data platform. This business is highly complementary to our core energy offering. We will use their smart home ecosystem to connect all our currently isolated products and services, including green power, batteries, EVs and other products into a seamless experience that is highly engaging and personalized.

我想在幻燈片 7 上提供更多關於 Vivint 如何增強我們的核心能源平台並大規模帶來額外功能的見解。Vivint 是智能家居解決方案的領導者，擁有近 200 萬高度參與的客戶，平均壽命為 9 年。他們的系統在一個專有技術和數據平台下將自動化、安全和住宅太陽能結合在一起。該業務與我們的核心能源產品高度互補。我們將利用他們的智能家居生態系統將我們目前孤立的所有產品和服務（包括綠色能源、電池、電動汽車和其他產品）連接起來，形成極具吸引力和個性化的無縫體驗。

This engagement will provide tremendous insights into pricing, customer experience, a new solutions that create greater brand loyalty and longer average customer lifetime. As we leverage the smart home ecosystem, we expect to optimize energy demand inside the home, providing valuable services to the wholesale markets.

這種參與將提供對定價、客戶體驗的深刻見解，以及創造更高品牌忠誠度和更長平均客戶生命週期的新解決方案。當我們利用智能家居生態系統時，我們希望優化家庭內部的能源需求，為批發市場提供有價值的服務。

In other words, NRG will be the bridge between the home and energy markets with a unique ability to optimize and monetize value between the two. Vivint will also complement our existing energy product offerings and sales channels by adding home automation, security and residential solar at scale including a proven acquisition engine with a solid track record of growth and nearly 2 million customers.

換句話說，NRG 將成為家庭和能源市場之間的橋樑，具有在兩者之間優化和貨幣化價值的獨特能力。 Vivint 還將通過大規模增加家庭自動化、安全和住宅太陽能來補充我們現有的能源產品供應和銷售渠道，包括具有良好增長記錄和近 200 萬客戶的成熟收購引擎。

On the right-hand side of the slide is the virtuous cycle that we have discussed in the past. By leveraging our existing platform, we can access meaningful cost synergies. This economic advantage, coupled with better insights and more personalization result in a better experience for our customers. All of this translates into a deeper understanding of how consumers interact with their homes, additional margin and better retention on our core products and then the cycle repeats as we grow, creating a more valuable business.

幻燈片的右側是我們過去討論過的良性循環。通過利用我們現有的平台，我們可以獲得有意義的成本協同效應。這種經濟優勢，加上更好的洞察力和更多的個性化，為我們的客戶帶來了更好的體驗。所有這一切都轉化為對消費者如何與他們的家互動的更深入理解，我們核心產品的額外利潤和更好的保留，然後隨著我們的成長循環重複，創造更有價值的業務。

Now I want to disclose the value of opportunities that this combination represents on Slide 8. We have identified 3 main areas of value, growing and optimizing our network of customers, leveraging the platform to achieve cost synergies and improving the value of our core energy customers.

現在我想在幻燈片 8 上披露這種組合所代表的機會價值。我們已經確定了 3 個主要價值領域，即發展和優化我們的客戶網絡，利用該平台實現成本協同效應並提高我們核心能源客戶的價值.

With respect to the growth opportunity, we are targeting $300 million of incremental free cash flow before growth by 2025. We are encouraged by the preliminary work we have done on both sets of customers and look forward to fully optimize once the transaction closes.

關於增長機會，我們的目標是在 2025 年增長之前增加 3 億美元的自由現金流。我們對兩組客戶所做的初步工作感到鼓舞，並期待在交易完成後全面優化。

As you can see on the left-hand side of the slide, there is some overlap in our core energy markets, but it's relatively small. This is important because Vivint already has teams ready to be deployed in our core energy markets and because the addressable market opportunity for new customers will be even greater.

正如您在幻燈片左側看到的那樣，我們的核心能源市場存在一些重疊，但相對較小。這很重要，因為 Vivint 已經有團隊準備部署到我們的核心能源市場，而且新客戶的可尋址市場機會將更大。

We expect to achieve this growth target in several ways as we target Tier 1 customers which we define as single-family homeowners with high credit scores within select urban areas. We will focus on 2 immediate and actionable opportunities. One, cross-selling existing products into our combined customer network of 7.5 million customers; two, selling bundle offers to new customers outside of our network representing 15 million potential households.

我們希望以多種方式實現這一增長目標，因為我們的目標是一級客戶，我們將這些客戶定義為在特定城市地區具有高信用評分的單戶住宅業主。我們將專注於 2 個即時且可行的機會。第一，將現有產品交叉銷售到我們由 750 萬客戶組成的綜合客戶網絡中；第二，向代表 1500 萬潛在家庭的我們網絡之外的新客戶銷售捆綁優惠。

In addition, we will grow Vivint organically in line with historical levels. These opportunities will be enhanced by optimizing our combined sales channels and best practices, leveraging the strength of both NRG and Vivint.

此外，我們將按照歷史水平有機地發展Vivint。這些機會將通過優化我們的組合銷售渠道和最佳實踐，利用 NRG 和 Vivint 的實力來增加。

The capital required to achieve this growth is expected to range $500 million to $600 million over the next 3 years.

在未來 3 年內，實現這一增長所需的資本預計將在 5 億至 6 億美元之間。

For gross synergies, we have identified $100 million to be achieved by 2025, primarily from combining 2 public companies. For these, we expect $160 million of onetime cost to achieve.

對於總協同效應，我們已確定到 2025 年將實現 1 億美元，主要來自合併 2 家上市公司。對於這些，我們預計一次性成本將達到 1.6 億美元。

Finally, on our existing core energy customers, cross-selling means we can have direct access to our customers in the East and the opportunity to expand margin and extend customer lifetime value. In total, we see a $400 million opportunity by '25 and a larger opportunity beyond given the size of the smart home addressable market.

最後，對於我們現有的核心能源客戶，交叉銷售意味著我們可以直接接觸我們在東方的客戶，並有機會擴大利潤率和延長客戶生命週期價值。總的來說，我們看到到 25 年將有 4 億美元的機會，而且考慮到智能家居可尋址市場的規模，還有更大的機會。

I am confident in our ability to deliver these targets as we have a strong history of integration and synergy achievement. Just to remind you, since 2016, we have achieved significant value on integration synergies, cost reductions and enhancement programs. This effort will be led by the same team as the transformation plan and direct energy integration. I look forward to providing you a more comprehensive update later this year during our Investor Day.

我對我們實現這些目標的能力充滿信心，因為我們在整合和協同成就方面有著悠久的歷史。提醒您，自 2016 年以來，我們在整合協同效應、成本降低和增強計劃方面取得了巨大價值。這項工作將由與轉型計劃和直接能源整合相同的團隊領導。我期待在今年晚些時候的投資者日為您提供更全面的更新。

Now turning to Slide 9. We want to give you an update on our pro forma outlook and how the Vivint transaction supports our growth targets. On the left-hand side of the slide is a free cash flow before growth pro forma walk from 2023 to 2025, including the expected growth contribution from Vivint that we just discussed on the previous slide.

現在轉到幻燈片 9。我們想向您介紹我們的備考展望以及 Vivint 交易如何支持我們的增長目標的最新情況。幻燈片左側是 2023 年至 2025 年增長預估前的自由現金流，包括我們剛剛在上一張幻燈片中討論的來自 Vivint 的預期增長貢獻。

This illustrates the earnings power of the company and will be further unpacked once the transaction is closed. On the right-hand side of the slide is the expected capital allocation through 2025. As you can see, the combined platform provides the financial flexibility to have a balanced approach between growth and return of capital while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

這說明了公司的盈利能力，並將在交易結束後進一步展開。幻燈片右側是到 2025 年的預期資本配置。如您所見，合併後的平台提供了財務靈活性，可以在增長和資本回報之間取得平衡，同時保持穩健的資產負債表。

The acquisition of Vivint and more specifically, the growth opportunity that it represents will better support our per share growth targets while materially high-grading our earnings quality and customer lifetime value. So with that, I will pass it over to Alberto for the financial review.

收購 Vivint，更具體地說，它所代表的增長機會將更好地支持我們的每股增長目標，同時顯著提高我們的盈利質量和客戶生命週期價值。因此，我將把它交給阿爾貝托進行財務審查。

Thank you, Mauricio. I will now turn to Slide 11 for a review of 2022 results. During our third quarter call, we stated that higher profitability in the fourth quarter would enable us to deliver an adjusted EBITDA at the bottom of our 2022 full year guidance range. To realize this, we mentioned that the higher profitability was partly related to insurance proceeds for Limestone Unit 1 and Parish Unit 8, additional synergies and other cost reductions and the remaining from the opportunity to generate additional gross margin from the planned utilization of our gas fleet.

謝謝你，毛里西奧。我現在將轉到幻燈片 11 回顧 2022 年的結果。在我們的第三季度電話會議中，我們表示第四季度更高的盈利能力將使我們能夠在 2022 年全年指導範圍的底部提供調整後的 EBITDA。為實現這一點，我們提到更高的盈利能力部分與石灰石 1 號機組和 Parish 8 號機組的保險收益、額外的協同效應和其他成本降低有關，其餘部分與我們的天然氣車隊的計劃利用產生額外毛利率的機會有關.

Our forecasting process is based on forward market curves and at the time, the forward curves included higher power prices for the fourth quarter which would make the planned utilization of the gas fleet economical. Unfortunately, prices in the fourth quarter fell significantly below short of expectation.

我們的預測過程基於遠期市場曲線，當時，遠期曲線包括第四季度更高的電價，這將使天然氣車隊的計劃利用變得經濟。不幸的是，第四季度的價格大幅低於預期。

On peak prices in Texas were 45% below expectation, resulting in lower profitability from our generation fleet. Near the end of December, Winter Storm Elliott brought sharp reduction in temperature for a short time, December 23, and 24. During the storm, flood surge was faster and significantly higher at the upper level of the expected range in both ERCOT and PJM for several hours. This drove spikes in power prices.

德克薩斯州的峰值價格比預期低 45%，導致我們的發電機組盈利能力下降。臨近 12 月底，冬季風暴埃利奧特 (Elliott) 在 12 月 23 日和 24 日的短時間內使氣溫急劇下降。在風暴期間，ERCOT 和 PJM 的洪水氾濫速度更快且明顯高於預期範圍的上限幾個小時。這導致電價飆升。

Our gas generation fleet in Texas, which was largely unutilized in the fourth quarter was called into action. Given the significant gap between actual and expected load, the fleet was unable to completely match the additional demand. As a result, we portrayed additional power in the market at higher prices.

我們在德克薩斯州的天然氣發電船隊在第四季度基本上未被使用，因此被召集起來。鑑於實際負載與預期負載之間的巨大差距，車隊無法完全滿足額外需求。因此，我們以更高的價格描繪了市場上的額外力量。

In the East, higher load led to a PJM reliability core for our units without any notice. Several of our larger units were reserved started the event and have longer startup times, which led to capacity performance, a negative impact given the lack of notice.

在東部，更高的負載導致我們的設備採用 PJM 可靠性核心，恕不另行通知。我們保留了幾個較大的單元開始活動並且啟動時間更長，這導致了容量性能，由於缺乏通知而產生了負面影響。

The lower-than-expected prices at the beginning of the quarter, coupled with the impact of the winter storm drove unfavorable variances to our EBITDA expectation. The fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $435 million was below our implied guidance by $196 million. We estimated that the lower prices experienced for most of Q4 reduced the expected contribution of our gas generation by approximately $115 million. We also estimated a Winter Storm Elliott caused approximately $80 million in negative impact. This was primarily result of the net impact of capacity performance in PJM as well as increased power purchases in ERCOT that were partially offset by an expected capacity performance bonds for the (inaudible) plant.

本季度初低於預期的價格，加上冬季風暴的影響，導致我們的 EBITDA 預期出現不利差異。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.35 億美元，比我們的暗示指引低 1.96 億美元。我們估計，第四季度大部分時間的低價格使我們天然氣發電的預期貢獻減少了約 1.15 億美元。我們還估計冬季風暴埃利奧特造成了大約 8000 萬美元的負面影響。這主要是由於 PJM 容量性能的淨影響以及 ERCOT 增加的電力購買量被（聽不清）工廠的預期容量性能債券部分抵消。

When we look at the full year adjusted EBITDA of $1.754 billion, fell short of the midpoint of guidance at the beginning of 2022 by $346 million. There were 2 main drivers that impacted this result. First, the extended outage at Parish Unit 8 with $220 million of lost margin that was partially offset by business interruption proceeds of $52 million; and second, the estimated $80 million impact of Winter Storm Elliott.

全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 17.54 億美元，比 2022 年初的指引中點低 3.46 億美元。有 2 個主要驅動因素影響了這一結果。首先，Parish Unit 8 的停電時間延長，造成 2.2 億美元的利潤損失，部分被 5200 萬美元的業務中斷收益所抵消；其次，冬季風暴埃利奧特估計造成 8000 萬美元的影響。

There was also an incremental $44 million of pension expenses resulting from reduced prices of financial assets in the second half of the year and some increased O&M expenses. Additional drivers include $15 million of reduced earnings for the divestiture of Watson and [$16] million of growth expenses.

由於下半年金融資產價格下降和一些運維費用增加，養老金支出增加了 4400 萬美元。其他驅動因素包括 1500 萬美元的剝離 Watson 收益減少和 [16] 百萬美元的增長費用。

In 2022, free cash flow before growth came in at $568 million, with the deficit to our third quarter guidance driven primarily by the shortfall in EBITDA and two working capital drivers. First, that the insurance proceeds for Parish and Limestone that were forecasted for 2022 were accrued in the fourth quarter but received in January 2023, resulting at the end of the year in a $100 million increase in receivables.

2022 年，增長前的自由現金流為 5.68 億美元，與我們第三季度指引的赤字主要是由 EBITDA 和兩個營運資本驅動因素的不足造成的。首先，預計 2022 年 Parish 和 Limestone 的保險收益在第四季度應計，但在 2023 年 1 月收到，導致年底應收賬款增加 1 億美元。

Second working capital is an additional negative impact due to falling of gas prices in the quarter which more rapidly impacted the account payables than the account received. Turning our attention to 2023, we are reaffirming our full year guidance for both adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth. Before we review the 2023 cash available for allocation, I would like to provide updates for Winter Storm Uri and direct energy synergies.

第二營運資金是一個額外的負面影響，因為本季度天然氣價格下跌對應付賬款的影響比對收到賬款的影響更快。將注意力轉向 2023 年，我們重申對調整後的 EBITDA 和增長前的自由現金流量的全年指導。在我們審查 2023 年可分配現金之前，我想提供冬季風暴 Uri 和直接能源協同效應的最新情況。

The 2021 net impact of Winter Storm Uri was $380 million. During 2022, we were able to increase Mitigants proceeds and reduced the total net cost to approximately $259 million. For future years, there will still be some cost recoveries associated with Uri, but within the amount to be immaterial, and we will no longer update to these figures.

2021 年冬季風暴 Uri 的淨影響為 3.8 億美元。 2022 年期間，我們能夠增加 Mitigants 的收益並將總淨成本降低至約 2.59 億美元。未來幾年，仍然會有一些與 Uri 相關的成本回收，但在不重要的數額內，我們將不再更新這些數字。

For direct energy synergies, we achieved a total of $84 million of additional synergies in 2022 with the related integration cost of $74 million bringing the total synergy achieved from the acquisition to $259 million. We are confident that we can achieve the remaining synergies, which are related to specific projects that will be completed in 2023. Therefore, we will no longer provide quarterly updates on our direct energy synergy process -- progress, but we will provide a final summary at CRA.

對於直接能源協同效應，我們在 2022 年實現了總計 8400 萬美元的額外協同效應，相關整合成本為 7400 萬美元，使收購實現的總協同效應達到 2.59 億美元。我們有信心實現剩餘的協同效應，這些協同效應與將於 2023 年完成的具體項目相關。因此，我們將不再提供直接能源協同過程的季度更新——進展，但我們將提供最終總結在加拿大稅務局。

Now turning to Slide 12 for a brief update on our 2023 capital allocation. Moving left to right, with blue shading indicating updates. Excess cash from 2022 is equal to $40 million at year-end, plus $209 million in proceeds from the sales of Astoria which totals $249 million in the bottom left.

現在轉到幻燈片 12，簡要了解我們 2023 年的資本配置。從左到右移動，藍色陰影表示更新。到年底，2022 年的多餘現金等於 4000 萬美元，加上出售 Astoria 的 2.09 億美元收益，左下角總計 2.49 億美元。

Next, for Vivint, we continue to utilize its 2022 pro forma full year figures provided in our December call. Full year free cash flow below growth of $1.730 billion includes energy stand-alone guidance of $1.620 billion plus pro forma $110 million for Vivint. This includes the expected impact from debt financing. In addition, we included a $300 million of cash available from Vivint.

接下來，對於 Vivint，我們繼續使用我們在 12 月的電話會議中提供的 2022 年備考全年數據。低於 17.3 億美元增長的全年自由現金流包括 16.2 億美元的能源獨立指導加上 Vivint 的 1.1 億美元備考。這包括債務融資的預期影響。此外，我們還包括來自 Vivint 的 3 億美元現金。

Next (inaudible), we are targeting $500 million of leverage neutral net inflow from asset sales. The next investments are higher by $29 million following early realization of previously included Winter Storm Uri Mitigants in 2022. Now moving to the far right bar, we expect a total of $434 million available for future allocation. This will fund the remaining share repurchase program upon full visibility of the achieving of our 2023 target credit metrics, which are detailed on the next slide.

接下來（聽不清），我們的目標是通過資產出售獲得 5 億美元的槓桿中性淨流入。在 2022 年提前實現之前包含的冬季風暴 Uri 緩解劑後，接下來的投資增加了 2900 萬美元。現在轉到最右邊的欄，我們預計未來總計有 4.34 億美元可用於分配。這將為剩餘的股票回購計劃提供資金，以充分了解我們 2023 年目標信用指標的實現情況，下一張幻燈片對此進行了詳細說明。

Now quickly turning to Slide 13. We remain committed to a strong balance sheet. This slide has not changed since our last update. We are focused on achieving 2023 target credit metrics and investment grade credit metrics by late 2025 to 2026 through both debt reduction and growth. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Mauricio.

現在快速轉到幻燈片 13。我們仍然致力於建立強大的資產負債表。自我們上次更新以來，這張幻燈片沒有改變。我們專注於通過債務減少和增長，在 2025 年末至 2026 年之前實現 2023 年目標信用指標和投資級信用指標。有了這個，我會把電話轉回 Mauricio。

Thank you, Alberto. On Slide 15, I want to briefly outline our 2023 priorities and expectations. First and foremost is delivering on our core energy business goals. We will continue to strengthen our integrated platform and further optimize our portfolio. Second, we are focused on closing the dividend acquisition, integrating the business and delivering on our synergy commitments. Finally, we will stay disciplined on our capital allocation plan as we execute on our strategic priorities.

謝謝你，阿爾貝托。在幻燈片 15 上，我想簡要概述我們 2023 年的優先事項和期望。首先也是最重要的是實現我們的核心能源業務目標。我們將繼續加強我們的綜合平台並進一步優化我們的產品組合。其次，我們專注於完成股息收購、整合業務並履行我們的協同承諾。最後，在執行我們的戰略重點時，我們將嚴格遵守我們的資本分配計劃。

I am excited about this next phase of our evolution and look forward to providing you a comprehensive update at our Investor Day later this year. So with that, I want to thank you for your time and interest in NRG. Josh, we're ready to open the line for questions.

我對我們下一階段的發展感到興奮，並期待在今年晚些時候的投資者日為您提供全面的更新。因此，我要感謝您抽出時間和對 NRG 的興趣。喬希，我們準備好開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Listen, I wanted to talk to you guys about the '25 outlook and just clarify this. As it pertains to the original conversation around, call it, $12.50 a share of [SPF], is this an implicit increase in expectations or roughly in the same ballpark? As I look at sort of what's implied on the numerator and denominator, seems like there could be a slight increase there. I just want to come back and clarify that as best you guys see it. And I have a quick follow-up.

聽著，我想和你們談談 25 世紀的前景，並澄清一下。由於它與最初的對話有關，稱之為每股 [SPF] 12.50 美元，這是預期的隱含增長還是大致相同？當我查看分子和分母隱含的某種內容時，似乎那裡可能會略有增加。我只是想回來澄清一下你們所看到的最好的情況。我有一個快速的跟進。

Yes. I mean let me see if I understand the question. The pro forma that we show here could source in line with the free cash flow before growth targets that we provided you at Investor Day of 15% to 20%. So as you mentioned, what Vivint does is complements our share buyback and capital allocation program with a very attractive growth engine that we articulated in the call today.

是的。我的意思是讓我看看我是否理解這個問題。我們在這裡展示的備考數據可能與我們在投資者日為您提供的 15% 至 20% 的增長目標之前的自由現金流一致。因此，正如您提到的，Vivint 所做的是通過我們在今天的電話會議中闡述的非常有吸引力的增長引擎來補充我們的股票回購和資本配置計劃。

Now, the Vivint transaction, I'm expecting that it's going to produce $400 million of free cash flow before growth, on top of the 2023 pro forma or guidance for NRG. So when I think about the 2025 pro forma, I will say that I'm very comfortable with the NRG pro forma now that we have communicated the contribution of Vivint, I will tell you that we have pretty good line of sight to deliver on that commitment of 15% to 20% growth.

現在，Vivint 交易，我預計在 NRG 的 2023 年備考或指導之上，它將在增長之前產生 4 億美元的自由現金流。所以當我想到 2025 年的預估時，我會說我對 NRG 預估非常滿意，因為我們已經傳達了 Vivint 的貢獻，我會告訴你我們有很好的視線來實現這一點承諾 15% 至 20% 的增長。

Excellent. And just clarifying this. I know you discussed in Analyst Day here, would you expect to roll that 25 forward at the time of the Analyst Day? Or could we get something sooner with the close and then considering that close -- just super quick, if I can, we've seen some litigation out there around SPAC and what is possible, if you will, in recent days. Can you clarify how that may be impacting the process itself at this point? Just if you don't mind for a moment?

出色的。只是澄清一下。我知道你在這裡的分析師日討論過，你是否希望在分析師日時將 25 向前滾動？或者我們能不能在收盤時更快地得到一些東西，然後考慮收盤——如果可以的話，我們已經看到了一些圍繞 SPAC 的訴訟，如果你願意的話，最近幾天有什麼可能。你能澄清一下這對流程本身有何影響嗎？只要你不介意片刻？

Yes. So I think what you should expect is at Investor Day, we'll provide you the 5-year plan that will go beyond 2025. I think that's the right time to articulate it, obviously, the close and in subsequent weeks after the close and most likely on the earnings call, we will provide additional clarity in 2023 with respect to Vivint, right? So with respect to the litigation that you're mentioning on the SPAC, we actually have looked at that, evaluated it, and we see very little risk in terms of closing the transaction. So keep in mind that this is not only for our industry, this is for all SPAC across all industry. And I see this more as just a clean of process than anything else. So the risk of impacting the closing of the transaction, I would say, is minimal.

是的。所以我認為你應該期待的是在投資者日，我們將為你提供 2025 年以後的 5 年計劃。我認為現在是闡明它的正確時間，顯然，在收盤後以及收盤後的幾週內很可能在財報電話會議上，我們將在 2023 年提供有關 Vivint 的更多信息，對嗎？因此，關於您在 SPAC 上提到的訴訟，我們實際上已經對其進行了研究和評估，我們認為在完成交易方面風險很小。所以請記住，這不僅適用於我們的行業，也適用於所有行業的所有 SPAC。而且我認為這更像是一個乾淨的過程而不是其他任何東西。因此，我想說，影響交易結束的風險很小。

Our next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So maybe first on the '23 guidance. I mean it seems like it's a pretty good setup for the year. I mean power prices have fallen, you should have an advantage with gaining market share on the retail side, especially in the East, given the collapse in power prices and natural gas prices. There's been an improvement in working capital, there is the cost to replace the power for the WA Parish outage should have come down, and yet you kept the guidance range. So what's the offset to these positive drivers?

所以也許首先是在 23 年的指南上。我的意思是，這似乎是今年的一個很好的設置。我的意思是電價已經下跌，考慮到電價和天然氣價格的暴跌，你應該在零售方面獲得市場份額方面的優勢，尤其是在東部。營運資金有所改善，西澳教區停電的電力更換成本本應下降，但您仍保持指導範圍。那麼這些積極驅動因素的抵消是什麼？

Yes. No, Angie, I mean I'm glad that you went down the list because when I think about 2023, I would say that it's more conservative than we have -- did in 2022. Not only from what we control. So if you think about the characteristics of our plans, the assumptions that we use in our forecast are more conservative. We have also -- remember now this is the second year that we have increased maintenance CapEx around our plans. So we expect greater reliability on them. And there is a lot of tailwinds on our guidance.

是的。不，安吉，我的意思是我很高興你能從名單上下來，因為當我想到 2023 年時，我會說它比我們在 2022 年所做的更加保守。不僅僅是我們控制的。因此，如果您考慮我們計劃的特點，我們在預測中使用的假設更為保守。我們還——請記住，這是我們第二年圍繞我們的計劃增加維護資本支出。因此，我們期望它們具有更高的可靠性。我們的指導有很多順風。

You already mentioned the dynamics in the East where prices for the default service utility providers are much higher, and I think we're going to have a great opportunity to gain market share. With the falling gas prices, that creates really good environment for us for managing our retail margin. So all of this is positive.

您已經提到了東方的動態，那裡默認服務實用程序提供商的價格要高得多，我認為我們將有很好的機會獲得市場份額。隨著天然氣價格的下跌，這為我們管理零售利潤率創造了非常好的環境。所以這一切都是積極的。

Now, let's just -- it's only February, right? So I want to make sure that we see at least a couple of months, and we have greater visibility on the rest of the year before we can provide you additional adjustments. But I think it's fair to say that I feel very confident that we can achieve our guidance and perhaps we are hearing on the conservative side with the number. But I think it is -- I think it's prudent given the type of volatility and extreme weather that we have seen in the past couple of years.

現在，讓我們——現在才二月，對吧？所以我想確保我們至少有幾個月的時間，並且在我們可以為您提供額外的調整之前，我們對今年剩餘時間有更大的了解。但我認為可以公平地說，我非常有信心我們能夠實現我們的指導，也許我們聽到的是保守的數字。但我認為這是 - 考慮到我們在過去幾年中看到的波動性和極端天氣類型，我認為這是謹慎的。

That's good, especially after this whole year. Okay. And then on the PJM capacity penalties. So it's my understanding that the disclosures that the generation companies were provided by PJM on Slide 8 only talked about penalties. So any sort of bonus capacity payments haven't been disclosed or calculated. So I know that, that's a '22 issue. But just talk to us about how you accounted for those offsets to the penalties on the capacity side.

這很好，尤其是在這一整年之後。好的。然後是 PJM 容量懲罰。所以我的理解是 PJM 在幻燈片 8 上提供的發電公司的披露只談到了處罰。因此，任何形式的獎金能力支付都沒有被披露或計算。所以我知道，那是 22 年的問題。但請與我們談談您如何計算容量方面的懲罰的這些抵消。

Sure. I'll let Alberto cover.

當然。我會讓阿爾貝托掩護。

Yes. No, I mean it is -- from the penalty side, it is relatively simple because we have considered based on our record, what is the potential penalties that taken those into account. On the bonus side, there is a lot of variables, including potential bankruptcy that can change the amount that will be distributed. And therefore, what we have done with the limited information available, we have estimated what is the best case scenario, the worst-case scenario and we have chosen a level we are comfortable. And therefore, we have, at the end of the day, risk adjusted the bonus for -- that we could get at the end of this process.

是的。不，我的意思是 - 從處罰方面來看，它相對簡單，因為我們已經根據我們的記錄考慮了將這些因素考慮在內的潛在處罰。在紅利方面，有很多變數，包括可能會改變分配金額的潛在破產。因此，我們利用有限的可用信息所做的工作，估計了最好的情況和最壞的情況，並選擇了一個我們認為合適的水平。因此，我們在一天結束時對獎金進行了風險調整——我們可以在這個過程結束時獲得。

We will know more in the next months, but we are comfortable with what we have done.

我們將在接下來的幾個月中了解更多，但我們對我們所做的感到滿意。

Yes. So I think it's fair to say that penalties -- we have taken all of that into consideration and bonuses, we need more information from PJM. So we have risk adjusted down for that.

是的。所以我認為可以公平地說處罰——我們已經考慮了所有這些和獎金，我們需要 PJM 提供更多信息。因此，我們為此下調了風險。

Okay. And then lastly, so when you announced the event, there was a plan to execute on share buybacks, a pretty meaningful 360 million. I mean, looking at the share count, you haven't done it. I understand that there is a plan for '23 to finish that $1 billion of the share buyback allocation. So just talk to me about the timing, why it hasn't happened yet, were you waiting for the proceeds from Astoria? Is it somewhat of a reflection of the weak free cash flow generation for '22? And again, just roughly about when we should expect those buybacks to happen.

好的。最後，當你宣布該活動時，有一項計劃執行股票回購，這是一個非常有意義的 3.6 億美元。我的意思是，看看分享數量，你還沒有做到。我知道 23 年有計劃完成 10 億美元的股票回購分配。所以就和我談談時間，為什麼還沒有發生，你是在等阿斯托里亞的收益嗎？這是否在某種程度上反映了 22 年自由現金流產生疲軟？再說一遍，我們應該大致預計這些回購會在什麼時候發生。

Yes. No, I mean that's correct. So my expectation is that it will happen this year and obviously being very consistent with our capital allocation principles. We want to focus first on achieving our credit metrics and then we will -- once we have the visibility in terms of achieving that and obviously, as we get cash proceeds in the door throughout the year, we will be executing on the share repurchases. So my commitment to everybody is that we will execute them, but we need to have first assurance is that we have -- that we meet our commitment on credit metrics and that we have the cash available. So that's how we're thinking about it.

是的。不，我的意思是那是正確的。所以我的預期是它會在今年發生，並且顯然與我們的資本配置原則非常一致。我們希望首先專注於實現我們的信用指標，然後我們將——一旦我們在實現這一目標方面有了可見性，顯然，隨著我們全年獲得現金收益，我們將執行股票回購。所以我對每個人的承諾是我們將執行它們，但我們需要首先保證我們有 - 我們履行了對信用指標的承諾並且我們有可用現金。這就是我們考慮的方式。

So it's not like the fact that you deferred the buyback -- it's in no way does that reduce the amount of financing that you will need to raise for the Vivint transaction.

所以這不像你推遲回購的事實——這絕不會減少你需要為 Vivint 交易籌集的融資額。

No.

不。

Our next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 David Arcaro。

I was wondering if you could elaborate on what assets might be considered for sale and what the potential timing might look like in terms of executing any processes related to that?

我想知道您是否可以詳細說明哪些資產可能被考慮出售，以及在執行與此相關的任何流程方面的潛在時間可能是什麼樣的？

Yes, David. So as you know, we actually have been optimizing our portfolio for a number of years. I think we have a pretty good track record on doing that. And the way I think about it is you have core assets and non-core assets, right? So core assets are whatever helps us best serve our customers. And if there is an asset that doesn't do that function, then it becomes a non-core asset, and we'll look at monetizing that.

是的，大衛。如您所知，我們實際上多年來一直在優化我們的產品組合。我認為我們在這方面有很好的記錄。我的想法是你有核心資產和非核心資產，對吧？因此，核心資產就是幫助我們最好地為客戶服務的一切。如果有一項資產不具備該功能，那麼它將成為非核心資產，我們將考慮將其貨幣化。

There is a second set of things that -- if there is an asset that is more valuable in somebody else's business, we will definitely take a look at that and evaluate all the options. So what I can tell you is, this is an ongoing process. We sold and monetized some assets last year. We're going to do that. What I wanted today was to provide you more specificity around the amount that we are targeting and that this will be executed throughout 2023. In terms of timing, obviously, these will require 2 people coming to an agreement and -- but we will be updating you as soon as we have available information.

還有第二組事情 - 如果有一項資產在其他人的業務中更有價值，我們肯定會看一看並評估所有選項。所以我可以告訴你的是，這是一個持續的過程。去年我們出售了一些資產並將其貨幣化。我們將這樣做。我今天想要的是更具體地說明我們的目標金額，這將在整個 2023 年執行。顯然，就時間而言，這將需要 2 個人達成協議，而且 - 但我們會更新一旦我們有可用的信息，請盡快聯繫您。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I was wondering if you could speak a bit to just fleet reliability and resilience here. Wondering -- just if you could talk to the strategy to improve the risk profile of the business during extreme heat and cold events. Are there further investments that you could make in your fleet to improve their resilience or more you could do to beef up the supply side of the equation?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想知道你是否可以在這裡談談車隊的可靠性和彈性。想知道 - 是否可以討論在極端高溫和寒冷事件期間改善業務風險狀況的戰略。您是否可以對您的車隊進行進一步投資以提高它們的彈性，或者您可以做更多的事情來加強等式的供應方面？

Yes, David. So when you think about the reliability and resiliency, I actually -- if you take a step back, and you think about our supply strategy to serve our retail loan, I think about it in 3 big buckets. The first one is the generation that we own, the second one is medium-term PPAs and then the third one is obviously, you complement that with market purchases.

是的，大衛。因此，當您考慮可靠性和彈性時，我實際上 - 如果您退後一步，考慮我們為零售貸款提供服務的供應策略，我會在 3 個大桶中考慮。第一個是我們擁有的一代，第二個是中期 PPA，然後第三個顯然是，你用市場購買來補充它。

Today, we are roughly 50% of the megawatts that we serve, we supply with our own generation, 50% with third-party either tools or purchases. So what we have done on the -- on our own generation is twofold. Number one, we have been a little bit more conservative when we run our forecast and what we use to hedge our node in terms of plan characteristics and that gives us a little bit more push on so we're self-insuring.

今天，我們大約有 50% 的兆瓦電力是我們自己提供的，50% 是通過第三方工具或採購提供的。因此，我們對我們這一代人所做的是雙重的。第一，當我們運行我們的預測時，我們會更加保守一些，我們用什麼來根據計劃特徵對沖我們的節點，這給了我們更多的推動力，所以我們是自我保險的。

The second thing is we have actually invested additional maintenance CapEx to increase the reliability on the units, specifically in areas where we have seen issues during scarcity conditions. So those 2 things really mitigate what I described as the operational risk on our units.

第二件事是我們實際上投入了額外的維護資本支出來提高設備的可靠性，特別是在我們在稀缺條件下看到問題的領域。所以這兩件事確實減輕了我所說的我們單位的運營風險。

The other tool, we actually trade these operational risk or counterparty risk, credit risk. So while it's perhaps more firmer in terms of the megawatts, it also -- we have to monitor the health of the entities that we're transacting with. So what I like about this approach is that we're diversifying our risk that is not all-generation, all-operational risk. So we actually diversify the risk. And this one was one of the big lessons during Winter Storm Uri. So I feel very comfortable the risk adjustment that we have made.

另一個工具，我們實際上交易這些操作風險或交易對手風險、信用風險。因此，雖然它在兆瓦方面可能更加堅定，但它也 - 我們必須監控我們正在與之交易的實體的健康狀況。所以我喜歡這種方法的原因是我們正在分散我們的風險，而不是全代、全運營風險。所以我們實際上分散了風險。這是冬季風暴 Uri 期間的重要課程之一。因此，我對我們所做的風險調整感到非常滿意。

And then lastly, in terms of hedging our loans, we are being a little bit more conservative. So we're leaning perhaps longer than we have done in the past and to make sure that we manage some of the scarcity periods where we see higher load. But obviously, you cannot derisk completely the business because it would be cost prohibitive. So we've been very, very intentional and very thoughtful about.

最後，在對沖我們的貸款方面，我們變得更加保守。因此，我們傾斜的時間可能比過去更長，並確保我們管理一些我們看到更高負載的稀缺時期。但顯然，您不能完全降低業務風險，因為這會導致成本過高。所以我們一直非常、非常有意和非常周到。

Our final question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

I appreciate the time. Just a question on the 2023 kind of base pre-Vivint, what are you assuming in there, I guess, obviously, you're expecting a big recovery from '22 and some of the issues, just but what are you assuming in there for outages, any lingering outages and then the related insurance money? And then also are you including any asset sale gains or losses in the guidance for '23? I think you've sold Astoria already at a decent price. Can you talk about that?

我很感激時間。只是關於 2023 年的基礎 pre-Vivint 的問題，你在那裡假設什麼，我想，很明顯，你期待從 22 年和一些問題中大幅復甦，但你在那裡假設什麼停電，任何揮之不去的停電，然後是相關的保險金？然後，您是否還在 23 年的指導中包括了任何資產出售收益或損失？我認為您已經以合理的價格出售了 Astoria。你能談談嗎？

Yes. So we already sold Astoria. And let me just give you my view on the 2023 guidance, which I started talking to about it, and then I'll pass it on to Alberto to tell you exactly what's in and out. But the way to think about the 2023, Steve is more conservative forecast that we have done in the past, both from operational productivities of the power plants, how we're managing our retail load but also because of the dynamics that existed in 2022 that don't exist today, like if you remember, we have the supply chain issues on coal and chemicals. That has abated for the most part.

是的。所以我們已經賣掉了 Astoria。讓我談談我對 2023 年指南的看法，我開始討論它，然後我會將其傳遞給阿爾貝托，告訴你確切的內容和內容。但是考慮 2023 年的方式，史蒂夫對我們過去所做的預測更為保守，既來自發電廠的運營生產力，我們如何管理我們的零售負荷，也因為 2022 年存在的動態今天不存在，就像你記得的那樣，我們有煤炭和化學品的供應鏈問題。這在很大程度上已經減弱。

We are falling to stable natural gas prices now that allows us to better manage our retail margins. We have an environment in the East where we feel very comfortable that we can gain market share on our retail business. So I think in general, I would say that 2023 is a lot more conservative. The guidance is right on top of what we provided to you back at the Investor Day when you adjust for asset sales which we provided you the bridge back then. So actually, in the Investor Day deck, you have the ins and outs, given the portfolio optimization that we have done. And we're literally on top of where we should have been so -- 2 things, one, I feel very confident that this is in line with what we provided you. And two, that is taking -- we're taking a little bit more of our conservative approach in terms of the number.

現在我們的天然氣價格正在下降，這使我們能夠更好地管理我們的零售利潤率。我們在東方的環境讓我們感到非常自在，我們可以在我們的零售業務中獲得市場份額。所以我認為總的來說，我會說 2023 年要保守得多。當您調整資產銷售時，我們在投資者日向您提供了指導，當時我們為您提供了橋樑。所以實際上，在投資者日平台上，考慮到我們已經完成的投資組合優化，你有來龍去脈。而且我們確實處於我們應該達到的水平之上 - 兩件事，第一，我非常有信心這與我們為您提供的一致。第二，這正在採取——我們在數量方面採取了更多的保守方法。

Obviously, we will update you throughout the year. But just keep in mind that we're just at the beginning of the year. But I don't know if there is anything else that we need to add...

顯然，我們會全年為您更新。但請記住，我們才剛剛開始。但是不知道還有沒有什麼需要補充的...

Parish, like outage cost insurance and asset sales. Could you identify what's in the guidance for those?

教區，喜歡停電成本保險和資產出售。你能確定這些指南中的內容嗎？

Yes. So in the guidance, obviously, we have the Parish that is not in the first half of the year because it's on average. What I will tell you in Parish and I think that's probably the largest risk. The progress that we have made is pretty significant. As a matter of fact, I think just last week, we've had the generator now on site and has been listed and put in the deck. So we're making really, really good progress on what I'm seeing today, I'm confident that we will come back on time.

是的。所以在指導中，很明顯，我們的教區不在上半年，因為它是平均水平。我將在教區告訴你的，我認為這可能是最大的風險。我們取得的進展非常顯著。事實上，我想就在上週，我們已經在現場安裝了發電機，並且已經列出並放在甲板上。所以我們在我今天看到的事情上取得了非常非常好的進展，我相信我們會按時回來。

Obviously, the commercial team is monitoring very closely that with the plan. If there is any delays or there is any acceleration that we either mitigate the risk in the market or that we take advantage if it comes in earlier. But in fact, that it's already embedded in guidance but -- Alberto.

顯然，商業團隊正在密切關注該計劃。如果有任何延遲或任何加速，我們要么降低市場風險，要么我們利用它來得更早。但事實上，它已經嵌入到指導中，但是-- Alberto。

Yes. And just to be a little bit more specific, Steve, regarding Parish Unit 8, we said that there is no impact in 2023. And the reason is because of the impact of the availability of the plant was matched by business insurance. We have received a little bit more than the business insurance in 2022. However, we are recalculating the margin. And net-net, it's still completely hedged by -- the loss margin is hedged by what we're going to receive as insurance, and therefore, no change compared to the prior scenario, which was in the third quarter when we provided the guidance.

是的。更具體一點，史蒂夫，關於教區第 8 單元，我們說 2023 年沒有影響。原因是因為工廠可用性的影響與商業保險相匹配。我們在 2022 年收到的比商業保險多一點。但是，我們正在重新計算保證金。而且淨淨額，它仍然完全被對沖 - 損失率被我們將作為保險收到的東西對沖，因此，與我們在第三季度提供指導時的先前情景相比沒有變化.

And then asset sales?

然後資產出售？

The asset sales, we have factored Astoria basically which happened in January. And we are -- for the moment, until there are news, obviously, we are not adjusting.

資產出售，我們基本上已經考慮了 1 月份發生的 Astoria。我們是——目前，在有消息之前，顯然，我們沒有進行調整。

But it's already -- Astoria has already been taken into consideration.

但它已經——Astoria 已經被考慮在內。

Astoria has been considered because it was a -- should have happened at the end of 2022. It happened just a few days after '23 and we took it into consideration in our guidance.

之所以考慮 Astoria，是因為它應該在 2022 年底發生。它發生在 23 年後幾天，我們在指導中考慮到了它。

Okay. And how much is that?

好的。那是多少？

It's fairly small at the full impact. Consider that we have a tool for the remaining short period. So it's very, very small.

完全影響時它相當小。考慮一下我們有剩餘短期的工具。所以它非常非常小。

Okay. Great. Appreciate it. So it's really the core business, yes.

好的。偉大的。欣賞它。所以這真的是核心業務，是的。

Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mauricio Gutierrez for any closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回 Mauricio Gutierrez 以聽取任何結束語。

Thank you. Thank you for your interest in NRG, and I look forward to updating you once we close the transaction on Vivint. Thank you.

謝謝。感謝您對 NRG 的關注，我期待在我們完成 Vivint 交易後為您更新。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程序到此結束。