NRG Energy Inc (NRG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NRG Energy, Inc. Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 NRG Energy, Inc. 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kevin Cole, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，投資者關係主管凱文科爾。請繼續。

Thank you, Katherine. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length and being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com, under Presentations and Webcast.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。早上好，歡迎參加 NRG Energy 的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天上午的電話會議時長為 45 分鐘，將通過電話和網絡直播進行現場直播，該電話可以位於我們網站 www.nrg.com 的“投資者”部分的“演示文稿和網絡直播”下。

Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of its date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law.

請注意，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為截至其日期是合理的假設。實際結果可能大不相同。我們敦促大家在今天的演示文稿中審查安全港以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中的風險因素。我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。

In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures, please see the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Please refer to today's presentation.

此外，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。有關我們的非 GAAP 財務指標的信息，請參閱最直接可比的 GAAP 指標。請參考今天的介紹。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Mauricio Gutierrez, NRG's President and CEO.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給 NRG 總裁兼首席執行官 Mauricio Gutierrez。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in NRG. I'm joined this morning by Alberto Fornaro, Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call and available for questions, we have Elizabeth Killinger, Head of Home; Rob Gaudette, Head of Business and Market Operations; and Chris Moser, Head of Competitive Markets and policy.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早上好，感謝您對 NRG 的關注。今天早上，首席財務官 Alberto Fornaro 加入了我的行列。我們還有 Elizabeth Killinger，家庭主管，正在電話中回答問題； Rob Gaudette，業務和市場運營主管；競爭市場和政策主管 Chris Moser。

I'd like to start with the 3 key messages for today's presentation on Slide 4. We're narrowing our 2022 EBITDA guidance to the bottom end of the range, as we indicated on our last earnings call, and we are initiating 2023 financial guidance in line with our Investor Day plan. We continue to make good progress on our strategic priorities and have now completed the initial phase of our test and learn program. The insights that we have gained from this process will inform our next phase of growing from our core Energy business into adjacent essential home services.

我想從今天幻燈片 4 演示的 3 個關鍵信息開始。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上指出的那樣，我們正在將 2022 年 EBITDA 指導範圍縮小到該範圍的底部，並且我們正在啟動 2023 年財務指導符合我們的投資者日計劃。我們在戰略重點方面繼續取得良好進展，現已完成測試和學習計劃的初始階段。我們從這個過程中獲得的見解將為我們從核心能源業務發展到相鄰的基本家庭服務的下一階段提供信息。

Finally, as I committed to you we are announcing our 2023 capital allocation plan, which includes an incremental $600 million share repurchase program, consistent with our long-term capital allocation principles. Our business performed well during the third quarter, which was characterized by extreme price volatility and record load in our key Texas market. I am very proud of our team which once again achieved another quarter of top decile safety performance despite these challenging market conditions.

最後，正如我向您承諾的那樣，我們宣布了我們的 2023 年資本分配計劃，其中包括一項增量 6 億美元的股票回購計劃，符合我們的長期資本分配原則。我們的業務在第三季度表現良好，其特點是極端價格波動和我們主要德克薩斯市場的創紀錄負載。我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，但我們的團隊再次取得了最高十分位安全績效的四分之一。

As you can see on Slide 5, we delivered $452 million of adjusted EBITDA, entirety of the change compared to last year was previously identified with 60% coming from asset sales and transitory impacts and 40% from the unplanned outage at our WA Parish facility. With these results, we are narrowing our 2022 EBITDA guidance to the bottom end of the range. Alberto will provide additional details in his section.

正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣，我們交付了 4.52 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，與去年相比的全部變化之前確定，其中 60% 來自資產銷售和暫時性影響，40% 來自我們西澳教區設施的計劃外停電。有了這些結果，我們將 2022 年 EBITDA 指導範圍縮小到該範圍的底端。 Alberto 將在他的部分提供更多詳細信息。

We also made good progress on all our key strategic priorities. We have now achieved our direct energy synergy target for 2022 and remain on track to achieve the full run rate of $300 million by next year. We continue to optimize our generation portfolio by retiring uneconomic fossil fuel plants, monetizing noncore assets and partnering for brownfield development.

我們在所有關鍵戰略重點方面也取得了良好進展。我們現在已經實現了 2022 年的直接能源協同目標，並有望在明年實現 3 億美元的全面運行率。我們通過淘汰不經濟的化石燃料工廠、將非核心資產貨幣化以及與棕地開發合作來繼續優化我們的發電組合。

As part of this effort, we are selling the Astoria side for approximately $200 million in net cash proceeds.

作為這項努力的一部分，我們將以大約 2 億美元的淨現金收益出售 Astoria 方面。

On our growth program, we continue to focus on cross-selling power and gas to our existing customer network. And with respect to our test and learn program, we have gained significant insights and are ready to start executing on our plan. I will discuss in greater detail later in the presentation. We also have made good progress on our $1 billion share repurchase program for 2022 with $603 million completed to date and $397 million yet to be completed.

在我們的增長計劃中，我們繼續專注於向現有客戶網絡交叉銷售電力和天然氣。關於我們的測試和學習計劃，我們已經獲得了重要的見解，並準備開始執行我們的計劃。稍後我將在演示文稿中更詳細地討論。我們在 2022 年 10 億美元的股票回購計劃方面也取得了良好進展，迄今已完成 6.03 億美元，尚未完成 3.97 億美元。

Finally, today, we're introducing 2023 financial guidance of $2.27 billion to $2.47 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.52 billion to $1.72 billion of free cash flow before growth, in line with our Investor Day outlook.

最後，今天，我們推出 2023 年財務指導，調整後 EBITDA 為 22.7 億美元至 24.7 億美元，增長前自由現金流為 15.2 億美元至 17.2 億美元，與我們的投資者日展望一致。

As I mentioned to you, weather conditions in Texas were extreme this past summer, with ERCOT surpassing the old peak demand record 39x driven by record heating the early part of the summer and a strong Texas economy.

正如我向您提到的那樣，去年夏天德克薩斯州的天氣條件極端惡劣，在夏初創紀錄的供暖和強勁的德克薩斯州經濟的推動下，ERCOT 超過了舊的峰值需求記錄 39 倍。

As you can see on the bottom left of the Slide 6, power price expectations, which are shown in the light blue bars, were as wide as I have ever seen them. This volatility was the result of record low coupled with uncertainty around production from nondispatchable renewable generation. Importantly, it took record sustained hit coupled with low renewable production to materialize into the high real-time power prices we experienced in May and July.

正如您在幻燈片 6 的左下角看到的那樣，淺藍色條中顯示的電價預期與我所見過的一樣寬。這種波動是創紀錄的低點以及不可調度的可再生能源生產不確定性的結果。重要的是，我們在 5 月和 7 月經歷的高實時電價經歷了創紀錄的持續打擊以及低可再生能源產量。

It is worth pointing out that even during these scarcity periods, we never triggered an emergency event, not even once. This is a testament that the Texas Grid is strong and working as intended with enough capacity to meet current and future demand. Turning to the right-hand side of the slide. We continue to see strong demand from our customers with no notable increase in bad debt levels.

值得指出的是，即使在這些稀缺時期，我們也從未觸發過緊急事件，甚至一次也沒有。這證明德州電網很強大，並且按預期工作，有足夠的容量來滿足當前和未來的需求。轉向幻燈片的右側。我們繼續看到客戶的強勁需求，而壞賬水平沒有顯著增加。

Retention has also remained strong, driven in part by our unmatched insights to pricing and customer preference, which enables us to navigate periods of high price and high volatility. We have also been successful in extending the average term of a new Texas customer contract to 2 years. This extension is good for both our customers and our shareholders given it as stability and predictability to customer bills and our earnings.

保留率也保持強勁，部分原因是我們對定價和客戶偏好的無與倫比的洞察力，這使我們能夠駕馭高價格和高波動時期。我們還成功地將新德克薩斯客戶合同的平均期限延長至 2 年。此擴展對我們的客戶和我們的股東都有好處，因為它對客戶賬單和我們的收益具有穩定性和可預測性。

On the supply side, our generation portfolio performed well during the summer while the team managed the impact of the WA Paris unit 8 outage. We were able to expand our maintenance program ahead of the summer, which resulted in better operational performance. Looking ahead, and as I discussed in our last call, we will increase maintenance capital in our plants, given higher power prices.

在供應方面，我們的發電組合在夏季表現良好，而團隊管理了西澳巴黎 8 號機組停電的影響。我們能夠在夏季之前擴展我們的維護計劃，從而提高運營績效。展望未來，正如我在上次電話會議中所討論的那樣，鑑於電價上漲，我們將增加工廠的維護資本。

Now I'd like to spend some time talking about our ongoing efforts in moving closer to the customer. We introduced the diagram on Slide 7 during our Investor Day to capture our vision of the smart home. As you can see from the table on the right, we have made substantial progress in laying the foundation to execute on our vision to become the leading provider of essential services at home.

現在我想花點時間談談我們為更貼近客戶所做的持續努力。我們在投資者日期間介紹了幻燈片 7 中的圖表，以捕捉我們對智能家居的願景。正如您從右側的表格中看到的那樣，我們在為實現成為國內領先的基本服務提供商的願景奠定基礎方面取得了實質性進展。

During the year, we evaluated over a dozen adjacent offerings and engaged in multiple partnership pilots for EVs, on solar and other home services. By starting small, it allowed us to stay nimble while gathering critical market intelligence to inform how we approach these new customer offerings.

在這一年中，我們評估了十幾個相鄰的產品，並就電動汽車、太陽能和其他家庭服務開展了多項合作試點。從小處著手，它使我們能夠在收集關鍵市場情報以告知我們如何處理這些新客戶產品時保持敏捷。

The result of these programs help validate our assumptions and provides confidence in how to execute our customer-centric strategy.

這些計劃的結果有助於驗證我們的假設，並為如何執行我們以客戶為中心的戰略提供信心。

Now let me put a finer point on our key findings on Slide 8. First, the Internet of Things is here and is enabling the smart home opportunity. People are connecting new devices every day with an average of 25 devices per home. This number has more than doubled since 2019 and continues to grow rapidly, resulting in multiple interfaces that don't necessarily interact with each other. Customers want simple, connected and customized experiences. It is clear that a single interface for the home is of increasing importance, and customer attitudes around these services are shifting from nice to have to need to have.

現在讓我對幻燈片 8 上的主要發現進行更詳細的說明。首先，物聯網已經到來，並且正在為智能家居提供機會。人們每天都在連接新設備，平均每個家庭有 25 台設備。自 2019 年以來，這一數字翻了一番多，並繼續快速增長，導致多個界面不一定相互交互。客戶想要簡單、互聯和定制的體驗。很明顯，家庭的單一界面越來越重要，客戶對這些服務的態度正在從良好轉變為必須擁有。

Next, electrification of the economy through smart technology and clean energy choices is real. We are seeing an increasing number of devices and appliances connected like HVAC, water heaters, battery, rooftop solar and other. In addition to having greater penetration of electric vehicles.

接下來，通過智能技術和清潔能源選擇實現經濟電氣化是真實的。我們看到越來越多的設備和電器連接起來，如 HVAC、熱水器、電池、屋頂太陽能等。除了擁有更大的電動汽車滲透率。

Finally, customers are demanding access to cleaner, affordable and more resilient solutions. This is in part driven by a desire to be a part of a more sustainable future, reinforced by a need for resiliency in the face of more extreme weather. And importantly, this has been accelerated by advancements in technology and policy.

最後，客戶要求獲得更清潔、負擔得起且更具彈性的解決方案。部分原因是希望成為更可持續的未來的一部分，同時面對更極端的天氣時需要恢復能力。重要的是，技術和政策的進步加速了這一進程。

With this integrated ecosystem at home, there is a significant value opportunity as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide. For NRG, we can offer adjacent products and services that leverages our existing energy operating platform, allowing us to access cost savings and provide superior customer experience. This advantage means broader insights into how customers interact with their homes, which translates into additional margin opportunities and increased brand loyalty.

正如您在幻燈片右側看到的那樣，有了這個在家中集成的生態系統，就有了巨大的價值機會。對於 NRG，我們可以利用我們現有的能源運營平台提供相鄰的產品和服務，使我們能夠節省成本並提供卓越的客戶體驗。這一優勢意味著更廣泛地了解客戶如何與他們的家互動，從而轉化為額外的利潤機會和提高品牌忠誠度。

Now turning to Slide 9. In 2023, we will increase efforts to grow our bundled expansion products and services through a mix of existing offerings, strategic partnerships and vertical integration. All of them aimed at making NRG the leading provider of essential services at home.

現在轉到幻燈片 9。2023 年，我們將加大力度，通過現有產品、戰略合作夥伴關係和垂直整合的組合來發展我們的捆綁式擴展產品和服務。所有這些都旨在使 NRG 成為家庭基本服務的領先提供商。

We are also providing our capital allocation plan for 2023, which is in line with our long-term capital allocation principles. Our plan is to return 50% of our capital available for allocation to our shareholders with an incremental $600 million share repurchase program and an 8% increase in our annual dividend. For the remaining 50%, we're allocating $331 million to identify growth investments and reserving $620 million to be deployed throughout the year to the highest return opportunity between growth and share repurchases.

我們還提供了 2023 年的資本配置計劃，這符合我們的長期資本配置原則。我們的計劃是通過增加 6 億美元的股票回購計劃和 8% 的年度股息增加，將 50% 的可分配資本返還給我們的股東。對於剩餘的 50%，我們將分配 3.31 億美元用於確定增長投資，並預留 6.2 億美元用於全年部署，以實現增長和股票回購之間的最高回報機會。

So with that, I will pass it over to Alberto for the financial review.

因此，我將把它交給阿爾貝托進行財務審查。

Thank you, Mauricio. I will now turn to Slide 11 for a review of the third quarter results. Energy delivered $452 million in adjusted EBITDA a $350 million decline versus prior year. Similar to our Q2 results, this year-over-year decline was the result of previously announced variances. As shown in the chart on the bottom left side of the slide, EUR 190 million of the decline was from asset sales and retirements, plus the transitory items included in our initial guidance.

謝謝你，毛里西奧。我現在將轉到幻燈片 11 來回顧第三季度的業績。能源公司的調整後 EBITDA 為 4.52 億美元，比上年減少 3.5 億美元。與我們的第二季度業績類似，今年同比下降是先前宣布的差異的結果。如幻燈片左下角的圖表所示，1.9 億歐元的下降來自資產出售和報廢，以及我們初步指導中包含的臨時項目。

The remaining $125 million variance is almost entirely due to the replacement power costs related to the unplanned Parish Unit 8 outage and maintenance expenses in the same unit for which we expect reimbursement from the property insurance company in Q4 of this year.

剩餘的 1.25 億美元差異幾乎完全是由於與教區 8 號機組計劃外停電和維護費用相關的更換電力成本，我們預計財產保險公司將在今年第四季度報銷。

Texas adjusted EBITDA declined $263 million compared to the third quarter of last year. July was the second hottest month of record dating back to 1895 which drove extreme price volatility and higher lows. This amplified the financial impact of the unplanned outage given the need to replace this power with a mix of higher cost internal generation and market purchases to satisfy the weather-driven increase in demand.

德克薩斯州調整後的 EBITDA 與去年第三季度相比下降了 2.63 億美元。 7 月是可追溯到 1895 年的有記錄以來第二個最熱的月份，這推動了極端價格波動和更高的低點。這放大了計劃外停電的財務影響，因為需要用成本更高的內部發電和市場購買來取代這種電力，以滿足天氣驅動的需求增長。

Q3 results in Texas were also impacted by higher operating costs in the form of increased maintenance expense. Approximately half of the increase was for work at WA Parish Unit 8 that will be reimbursed by insurance in Q4 and the remaining increase from our maintenance program that helped ensure strong reliability of the rest of the fleet through a volatile summer.

德克薩斯州第三季度的業績也受到維護費用增加形式的運營成本增加的影響。大約一半的增長用於西澳教區第 8 單元的工作，該單元將在第四季度通過保險報銷，其餘的增長來自我們的維護計劃，這有助於確保車隊其他成員在動蕩的夏季期間保持強大的可靠性。

Turning to the East, West and other segment. The year-over-year decline of EUR 52 million was primarily driven by the reduction from previously announced asset sales and retirement and supply chain constraints. Now after taking those items into account, adjusted EBITDA increased by $111 million compared to Q3 of 2021 from increased revenue rate, natural gas optimization and operations at [Cote].

轉向東、西等段。同比下降 5200 萬歐元主要是由於先前宣布的資產出售和退役以及供應鏈限制的減少。現在考慮到這些項目後，與 2021 年第三季度相比，調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 1.11 億美元，原因是收入率的提高、天然氣優化和 [Cote] 的運營。

Briefly referencing year-to-date results. Energy has delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.39 billion, a $671 million decline versus prior year. The drivers of our year-to-date results are similar to that of the quarter with permanent and transitory items, the unplanned outage of WA Parish Unit 8 and increased maintenance expenses driving the decline versus prior year.

簡要參考年初至今的結果。能源公司的調整後 EBITDA 為 13.9 億美元，比上年減少 6.71 億美元。我們年初至今業績的驅動因素與本季度類似，包括永久性和臨時性項目、西澳教區 8 號機組的計劃外停電以及維護費用的增加導致同比下降。

The free cash flow before growth for both Q3 and year-to-date results have been impacted by reduced year-over-year EBITDA levels, as discussed earlier and the increase in net working capital. Working capital requirements increased progressively during the year due to higher gas and power prices and in Q3, due the combined effect of higher seasonal power receivables and natural gas inventories.

如前所述，第三季度和年初至今業績增長前的自由現金流受到 EBITDA 同比下降和淨營運資本增加的影響。由於天然氣和電力價格上漲，以及由於季節性電力應收賬款和天然氣庫存增加的綜合影響，第三季度的營運資金需求逐漸增加。

We have also seen a $32 million increase year-over-year in maintenance CapEx, driven entirely by spending to repay the limestone and the WA Parish Unit 8 facility. This increased spend will be recovered by year-end through property insurance proceeds.

我們還看到維護資本支出同比增長 3200 萬美元，這完全是由於償還石灰石和 WA Parish Unit 8 設施的支出。增加的支出將在年底前通過財產保險收益收回。

Next, I want to update you on the achievement of Direct Energy synergies. We have achieved our full year target of $50 million during the quarter and continue to remain focused on achieving the full $300 million run rate next year.

接下來，我想向您介紹 Direct Energy 協同效應的成就。我們在本季度實現了 5000 萬美元的全年目標，並將繼續專注於明年實現 3 億美元的全部運行率。

Now moving to the full year 2022 guidance. We are narrowing our adjusted EBITDA range to $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. In line with my previous comment of success in partially offsetting the $220 million negative impact from Parish Unit 8 and planned outage. At this time, we are at the bottom of the range.

現在轉到 2022 年全年指導。我們正在將調整後的 EBITDA 範圍縮小至 19.5 億美元至 20.5 億美元。與我之前關於成功部分抵消教區 8 號機組和計劃停電造成的 2.2 億美元負面影響的評論一致。此時，我們處於範圍的底部。

Now given the implied strong Q4 results, let me provide additional details. We are expecting over a $200 million increase versus prior year, about $100 million coming from direct energy synergies, insurance proceeds for Limestone in Paris and other general cost reduction. The remaining coming from power and natural gas optimization opportunity leading us to make our natural gas full fleet, fully available in Q4.

現在鑑於隱含的強勁第四季度業績，讓我提供更多細節。我們預計與去年相比增加超過 2 億美元，其中約 1 億美元來自直接能源協同效應、巴黎石灰石的保險收益和其他一般成本降低。剩下的來自電力和天然氣優化機會，使我們的天然氣滿載，在第四季度完全可用。

Now turning to 2022 free cash flow before growth guidance. We are reducing our full year guidance range to $950 million to $1.050 billion with 1/3 of the reduction from the narrowing of the adjusted EBITDA guidance and 2/3 from the temporary increase in working capital from higher prices and inventories. And so as we head into the winter season, we made a conscious decision to increase our inventory levels for both natural gas and coal to provide contingency against the transportation challenges and the potential for extreme winter weather, driving a $50 million reduction in the free cash flow for the year.

現在轉向增長指導之前的 2022 年自由現金流。我們將全年指導範圍降低至 9.5 億美元至 10.50 億美元，其中 1/3 來自調整後 EBITDA 指導範圍的縮小，2/3 來自更高價格和庫存導致的營運資金暫時增加。因此，當我們進入冬季時，我們有意識地決定增加天然氣和煤炭的庫存水平，以應對運輸挑戰和極端冬季天氣的可能性，從而減少了 5000 萬美元的自由現金流一年。

We have captured the reversal of these higher inventory quantities in our guidance for 2023, which I will discuss later in the call. In addition to the higher inventory quantities, prices for natural gas and power have also increased since the last call, resulting in an additional value of our inventories and net receivables for approximately $140 million. which will be reversed with lower commodity prices. The combined $190 million impact of these factors result in reduced expectation for 2022 free cash flow before group.

我們在 2023 年的指導中捕捉到了這些較高庫存數量的逆轉，我將在電話會議的後面討論。除了更高的庫存數量外，自上次電話會議以來，天然氣和電力的價格也有所上漲，導致我們的庫存和應收賬款淨額增加了約 1.4 億美元。這將隨著商品價格下跌而逆轉。這些因素的綜合影響為 1.9 億美元，導致對 2022 年集團前自由現金流的預期降低。

I will now turn to Slide 12 for an update on our planned 2022 capital allocation. Consistent with past practice, we have highlighted change from last quarter in blue. Starting from the left, we have updated the midpoint of our free cash flow before growth guidance by $290 million, $100 million from lower EBITDA guidance and $190 million from increases in working capital.

我現在將轉向幻燈片 12，了解我們計劃的 2022 年資本分配的最新情況。與過去的做法一致，我們用藍色突出顯示了上個季度的變化。從左邊開始，我們將增長指導前的自由現金流的中點更新了 2.9 億美元，較低的 EBITDA 指導更新了 1 億美元，營運資本增加了 1.9 億美元。

As you know, cash generation is a key objective for energy. And our team has been focused on offsetting this negative impact. We were able to assess a significant portion of those reductions by capturing $212 million of net cash proceeds from the sale of Astoria allowing us to utilize and distribute capital consistent with our commitments.

如您所知，產生現金是能源的一個關鍵目標。我們的團隊一直致力於抵消這種負面影響。我們能夠通過從出售 Astoria 中獲得 2.12 億美元的淨現金收益來評估這些削減的很大一部分，從而使我們能夠根據我們的承諾使用和分配資本。

Next, we expect to capture an additional of $6 million from winter store remittance related to additional recovery. Next, we continue to make progress in executing our $1 billion share repurchase program. At the end of October, we have $397 million to be completed by around year-end.

接下來，我們預計從與額外恢復相關的冬季商店匯款中額外獲得 600 萬美元。接下來，我們在執行 10 億美元的股票回購計劃方面繼續取得進展。到 10 月底，我們有 3.97 億美元要在年底左右完成。

And finally, we have committed $100 million of operating CapEx spend related to our $2 billion growth plan, which when coupled with our investments, other investments leads to $286 million of capital available for allocation.

最後，我們已承諾 1 億美元的運營資本支出支出與我們 20 億美元的增長計劃相關，再加上我們的投資，其他投資將導致 2.86 億美元的資本可供分配。

Moving to 2023, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth guidance, we are pleased to announce that our expectation for 2023, in line with previous targets. We're introducing strong 2023 financial guidance of $2.27 billion to $2.47 billion for adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth of $1.52 billion to $1.72 billion. EBITDA guidance includes the full year impact of asset sales and other permanent [interims] that we captured in our guidance for 2022.

到 2023 年，調整後的 EBITDA 和增長指導之前的自由現金流，我們很高興地宣布，我們對 2023 年的預期與之前的目標一致。我們正在為調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流引入 22.7 億美元至 24.7 億美元的強勁財務指導，然後增長 15.2 億美元至 17.2 億美元。 EBITDA 指導包括我們在 2022 年指導中捕捉到的資產銷售和其他永久性 [過渡期] 的全年影響。

Although we expect some continued impact from cold constraints, we are able to offset those and the other transitory items that impacted our 2022 guidance.

儘管我們預計寒冷限制會繼續產生一些影響，但我們能夠抵消影響我們 2022 年指導方針的那些和其他暫時性項目。

I will now turn to Slide 14. For the introduction of our 2023 $1.9 billion capital allocation plan. As Mauricio mentioned, in his section, our capital allocation is directly in line with our long-standing principle and cadence of allocation.

我現在將轉向幻燈片 14。介紹我們 2023 年 19 億美元的資本分配計劃。正如毛里西奧（Mauricio）在他的部分中提到的，我們的資本配置直接符合我們長期以來的分配原則和節奏。

Today, we are starting the conversation by allocating 50% to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases and allocating a portion of the 50% opportunistic back to identified group, leaving 35% to be allocated throughout the year to the highest returning investments while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

今天，我們開始對話，通過股息和股票回購將 50% 分配給股東，並將 50% 機會主義投資的一部分分配給已確定的集團，全年將 35% 分配給回報率最高的投資，同時保持強大的資產負債表。

Now moving left to right, we start with the midpoint of our free cash flow before growth guidance range of $1.62 billion, plus $286 million of unallocated 2022 CAFA, capital available for allocation, totaling $1.9 million in capital for allocation. Next, we have allocated $220 million identified for our growth program and $111 million for other investments to fund additional investment to support the integration of Direct Energy, innovation projects and small book acquisition.

現在從左到右，我們從自由現金流的中點開始，在增長指導範圍 16.2 億美元之前，加上 2.86 億美元的未分配 2022 年 CAFA 可分配資本，總計 190 萬美元的分配資本。接下來，我們已為我們的增長計劃撥款 2.2 億美元，並為其他投資撥款 1.11 億美元，以資助額外投資，以支持 Direct Energy、創新項目和小型圖書收購的整合。

Next, on return on capital, we are allocating $347 million to dividends, consistent with our 7% to 9% annual dividend per share growth target and announcing a new share repurchase program of $600 million to be executed immediately following the full execution of our current $1 billion program. Finally, this leaves $628 million of 2023 capital available for allocation to be allocated throughout the year. We look forward to providing you with updates to our progress throughout 2023.

接下來，在資本回報率方面，我們將分配 3.47 億美元用於股息，與我們 7% 至 9% 的年度每股股息增長目標一致，並宣布一項新的 6 億美元股票回購計劃將在我們目前的全面執行後立即執行10億美元的計劃。最後，這使得 2023 年有 6.28 億美元的資本可用於全年分配。我們期待在整個 2023 年向您提供我們的最新進展。

Back to you, Mauricio.

回到你身邊，毛里西奧。

Thank you, Alberto. I want to provide some closing thoughts on Slide 16. We have made significant progress across all of our key priorities this year, including the direct energy integration, portfolio optimization and our test and learn program and returning capital to shareholders. I'm incredibly proud of the team's efforts and focus over the last 24 months on executing our strategy.

謝謝你，阿爾貝托。我想就幻燈片 16 提供一些結束的想法。今年，我們在所有關鍵優先事項上都取得了重大進展，包括直接能源整合、投資組合優化以及我們的測試和學習計劃以及向股東返還資本。我為團隊在過去 24 個月中的努力和專注於執行我們的戰略而感到無比自豪。

As we look into 2023 and beyond, we remain on track to achieve our long-term goals of high grading our earnings quality by expanding our customer lifetime value. and providing a compelling annual total return to our shareholders of 15% to 20% free cash flow before growth per share and 7% to 9% annual dividend growth. Our platform is well positioned to deliver strong and predictable results and create significant shareholder value as the leading essential home services provider. I look forward to updating you on our progress along the way.

展望 2023 年及以後，我們仍有望通過擴大客戶生命週期價值來實現對盈利質量進行高評級的長期目標。並為我們的股東提供令人信服的年度總回報，即每股增長前 15% 至 20% 的自由現金流和 7% 至 9% 的年度股息增長。作為領先的基本家庭服務提供商，我們的平台處於有利地位，可以提供強大且可預測的結果，並為股東創造重要價值。我期待著向您通報我們在此過程中取得的進展。

So with that, I want to thank you for your time and interest in NRG. Katherine, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

因此，我要感謝您對 NRG 的時間和興趣。凱瑟琳，我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Mauricio and team, pleasure to speak here. I hope the parade made things okay this morning.

Mauricio 和他的團隊，很高興在這裡發言。我希望今天早上的遊行一切順利。

Well, it disrupted traffic a little bit, but there is nothing like a great celebration after that win.

好吧，它稍微擾亂了交通，但是在那場胜利之後沒有什麼能比得上一場盛大的慶祝活動了。

Absolutely, absolutely. Well, hey, listen, I just wanted to start off strategically here. We've been at it for a little bit here in the transformation, power prices remained relatively higher. How do you think about the state of the generation portfolio overall, how are you thinking about and evolving your decision tree on that? Obviously, we saw a story here in the quarter. But even beyond that, how are you seeing things, whether that's tied to or driven by IRA or otherwise here in terms of optimizing your generation portfolio?

絕對，絕對。好吧，嘿，聽著，我只是想從這裡戰略性地開始。在轉型過程中，我們已經進行了一段時間，電價仍然相對較高。您如何看待整體一代投資組合的狀態，您如何考慮和發展您的決策樹？顯然，我們在本季度看到了一個故事。但除此之外，您如何看待事情，無論是與 IRA 相關或由 IRA 驅動，還是在優化您的發電投資組合方面的其他方面？

Thank you, Julien. Well, so let me take a little bit of a step back because obviously, you need to look at the generation portfolio in light of our integrated retail platform, right? I mean we have said that the goal of the generation portfolio now is to help better supply and serve our customer needs.

謝謝你，朱利安。好吧，讓我退後一步，因為很明顯，您需要根據我們的綜合零售平台來查看一代產品組合，對嗎？我的意思是我們已經說過，現在發電組合的目標是幫助更好地供應和滿足我們的客戶需求。

So when I think about our generation portfolio, I think about our overall supply strategy, and that is 1 where we have decided to diversify our supply, to have some internal generation, to have third-party PPAs and obviously, market purchases. All of those 3 things make our supply strategy.

因此，當我考慮我們的發電組合時，我會考慮我們的整體供應戰略，這就是我們決定使供應多樣化、擁有一些內部發電、擁有第三方 PPA 以及顯然是市場採購的地方。所有這三件事構成了我們的供應戰略。

Now with respect to the generation portfolio, as you mentioned, higher power prices have led us to basically self-insure to have greater reliability because the value of each megawatt is much higher today than it was just 10 months ago with higher power prices and higher gas prices. So that's why you're going to see an increase in our maintenance capital because we want to make sure that we have greater reliability on our fleet.

現在就發電組合而言，正如您所提到的，更高的電價導致我們基本上自我保險以具有更高的可靠性，因為今天每兆瓦的價值比 10 個月前高得多，而且電價和更高天然氣價格。這就是為什麼您會看到我們的維護資本增加的原因，因為我們希望確保我們的機隊具有更高的可靠性。

Obviously, we're always optimizing our supply. And right now, the value that it provides for our integrated platform is very high. But if there is -- there's always an opportunity to optimize that generation portfolio depending on market conditions and the opportunities that we see in the market.

顯然，我們一直在優化我們的供應。而現在，它為我們的集成平台提供的價值是非常高的。但如果有的話 - 總是有機會根據市場條件和我們在市場上看到的機會來優化該發電組合。

Got it. All right. Fair enough. I'll leave it there. Let me dive if I can to the other side of this equation, and that is just the guidance and sort of the cadence of the guidance. Great. Obviously, the implied fourth quarter is reasonably elevated. And certainly, that's despite some of the ongoing pressure points that we saw in the third quarter.

知道了。好的。很公平。我會把它留在那裡。如果可以的話，讓我跳到這個等式的另一邊，這只是指導和指導的節奏。偉大的。顯然，隱含的第四季度是相當高的。當然，儘管我們在第三季度看到了一些持續的壓力點。

Can you talk about what that implies to the cadence of results into '23 here? How do you think about the first half? How do you think about third quarter going forward, given the sort of evolution in your business model? Should third quarter into the future be perhaps a little bit more depressed relatively speaking. Can you just elaborate on what the implications are? Maybe that's an Alberto question here.

你能談談這對 23 年結果的節奏意味著什麼嗎？你怎麼看上半年？鑑於您的商業模式的演變，您如何看待第三季度的發展？相對而言，未來的第三季度是否應該會更加沮喪。你能詳細說明一下有什麼影響嗎？也許這是阿爾貝託的問題。

Yes. Well, I'll turn to Alberto but let me just give a little framework. I mean I think the big takeaway, I hope for everybody is that in 2023, we go back to the guidance or the outlook that we provided during our Investor Day. Our EBITDA guidance and our free cash flow guidance goes back in line with what we provided to you last year. We're turning the page. And we're just excited about the opportunities that we have to continue growing our business, our core energy business, but importantly, adjacent products and services. With respect to the seasonality of earnings, I think you should expect us going back to where we were perhaps in 2021. But Alberto, can you provide additional insights here?

是的。好吧，我將求助於 Alberto，但讓我給出一個小框架。我的意思是，我認為對每個人來說最大的收穫是，在 2023 年，我們回到我們在投資者日提供的指導或展望。我們的 EBITDA 指導和自由現金流指導與我們去年提供給您的指導一致。我們正在翻頁。我們只是對我們必須繼續發展我們的業務、我們的核心能源業務，但重要的是相鄰產品和服務的機會感到興奮。關於收益的季節性，我認為你應該期待我們回到 2021 年的水平。但是 Alberto，你能在這裡提供更多的見解嗎？

Yes. I think more than looking at first half versus the second half, I would say that probably you will see these 2 critical quarters have been the second and the third. And so you will see probably more balance and more in line, as Mauricio said, with the past. And potentially even the fourth quarter that this year is higher than normal. So I would say, again, probably get back to 2021 profile is what we should expect.

是的。我認為不僅僅是看上半場和下半場，我想說的是，你可能會看到這兩個關鍵季度是第二個和第三個。因此，正如毛里西奧所說，您可能會看到與過去更加平衡和更加一致。甚至今年第四季度也可能高於正常水平。所以我想說，可能回到 2021 年的配置文件是我們應該期待的。

Okay. Excellent. And that's inclusive of some of these coal dynamics annualizing here in the first half and some of the outage dynamics still net-net-net '21 kind of profile?

好的。出色的。這包括上半年年度化的一些煤炭動態以及一些停電動態仍然是 net-net-net '21 的類型？

Yes. I mean if you think about some of these coal supply issues, we were very transparent last year when we introduced them. And the team has done a tremendous job in mitigating these core supply chain issues, particularly in Texas, I mean we continue to have some things in the East, and team is just working through that.

是的。我的意思是，如果您考慮其中一些煤炭供應問題，去年我們在介紹這些問題時非常透明。團隊在緩解這些核心供應鏈問題方面做了大量工作，特別是在德克薩斯州，我的意思是我們在東部繼續有一些東西，團隊正在努力解決這個問題。

But as I mentioned to all of you when we introduced these are temporary. The coal supply chain was significantly stretched because of the very rapid increase in natural gas prices. And I also said with time both coal suppliers and railroad providers scale off again their operations, and that's what we're seeing in our -- with our key suppliers.

但正如我在介紹時向大家提到的那樣，這些都是暫時的。由於天然氣價格的快速上漲，煤炭供應鏈顯著延長。我還說過，隨著時間的推移，煤炭供應商和鐵路供應商都會再次縮減業務規模，這就是我們在我們的主要供應商中看到的情況。

Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆的 Shar Pourreza。

It's actually James for Shar. Congrats on update, and thanks for taking the question. So I guess just starting with the '23 capital allocation plan, what are the trigger points of the time line expectations for the balance of the uncommitted capital? Are you potentially looking at more growth as we get through the year? Or is this just simply a function of waiting to see how the business performs through the first half?

這實際上是夏爾的詹姆斯。恭喜更新，感謝您提出問題。所以我猜剛從'23資本配置計劃開始，未承諾資本餘額的時間線預期觸發點是什麼？隨著我們度過這一年，您是否有可能看到更多的增長？或者這只是一個等待看上半年業務表現的功能？

Well, yes, so 2 things. The first 1 is, as I committed to all of you, this year, we're actually announcing both our earnings guidance as well as our capital allocation. If you remember in the past, we used to provide the capital allocation in the fourth quarter earnings call. So the first thing is we're now providing these to much earlier than in the past.

嗯，是的，所以有兩件事。第一個是，正如我向你們所有人承諾的那樣，今年，我們實際上宣布了我們的收益指導以及我們的資本分配。如果您還記得過去，我們曾經在第四季度財報電話會議中提供資本配置。所以第一件事是我們現在比過去更早地提供這些。

The second thing is always -- our capital allocation, we try to -- the cadence happens with the cadence on when we generate cash, and this is not going to be any different. But as I said on my prepared remarks, the additional excess cash that we have available for allocation will be allocated throughout the year based on the highest return opportunity that we have. 2023, we start executing on our plan. We're evaluating opportunities. But if these opportunities don't yield a highest return compared to a share buyback, then we will allocate that to share buybacks. Just that simple.

第二件事總是——我們的資本分配，我們試圖——隨著我們產生現金的節奏發生，這不會有任何不同。但正如我在準備好的講話中所說，我們可用於分配的額外超額現金將根據我們擁有的最高回報機會在全年進行分配。 2023年，我們開始執行我們的計劃。我們正在評估機會。但是，如果這些機會與股票回購相比沒有產生最高的回報，那麼我們會將其分配給股票回購。就這麼簡單。

Okay. And then I guess kind of a similar question on the growth CapEx. How should we think about the timing and shape of any EBITDA accretion as you ramp up that spend? Is it something that we get more color on in steps as we roll for the coming quarters or just any color there?

好的。然後我猜想關於增長資本支出的類似問題。當您增加支出時，我們應該如何考慮任何 EBITDA 增長的時間和形式？當我們為接下來的幾個季度滾動時，我們會逐步獲得更多顏色還是那裡的任何顏色？

Yes. Well, I mean, remember that as we execute on our plan, we always have 3 options, right? We either build them or grow organically, we partner or we buy them, we acquire something. So in the build or organic growth, there is always a lag between when you make the investment and when you receive some of those earnings.

是的。好吧，我的意思是，請記住，當我們執行我們的計劃時，我們總是有 3 個選項，對吧？我們要么建造它們，要么有機地成長，我們合作或購買它們，我們獲得一些東西。因此，在構建或有機增長中，在您進行投資和獲得部分收益之間總是存在延遲。

And in the -- similar to the partner, and I would say the acquisition, that really accelerates earnings immediately, right? So we're right now evaluating options and our both our business model and our go to market. The one thing that I will say is, as I think about the growth, there are some areas that -- well, first of all, it's a very narrow scope and I provided that scope in the slide that I presented to you today.

在 - 類似於合作夥伴，我會說收購，這真的會立即加速盈利，對吧？因此，我們現在正在評估選項以及我們的商業模式和進入市場。我要說的一件事是，當我考慮增長時，有些領域--首先，這是一個非常狹窄的範圍，我在今天展示給你們的幻燈片中提供了這個範圍。

The second thing is there are some areas where we know that we're not going to do it, that the business model is such that we will partner, for example, Home Solar. We're not going to go into the entire value chain of Home Solar. We are going to partner. We have a lot of lessons learned here, and I have been very clear about that. So the pace of which the earnings are going to come in, it is really going to be dictated by how do we execute our strategy and we go to market. So it will be provided to you in the coming quarters as we start executing.

第二件事是在某些領域我們知道我們不會這樣做，商業模式是我們將合作的，例如 Home Solar。我們不會進入 Home Solar 的整個價值鏈。我們要合作。我們在這裡吸取了很多教訓，我對此非常清楚。因此，收益進入的速度實際上將取決於我們如何執行我們的戰略以及我們如何進入市場。因此，在我們開始執行時，它將在未來幾個季度提供給您。

Our next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So first, on the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act. So I see that there's a $45 million increase in cash taxes in your '23 free cash flow guidance. So -- and I know that we're still waiting for the IRS to provide some more clarity on cash taxes. But can you talk in general how you see it over the next couple of years?

首先，關於愛爾蘭共和軍，即《通脹降低法案》。所以我看到你的 23 年自由現金流指南中的現金稅增加了 4500 萬美元。所以 - 我知道我們仍在等待美國國稅局提供更明確的現金稅。但是你能概括地說一下你對未來幾年的看法嗎？

Angie, I'll pass it to Alberto.

安吉，我會把它交給阿爾貝托。

Yes. First of all, Angie, let me say that the increase in the taxes -- the tax payment that you see for 2023 are really due to 2 factors. One, we are forecasting a higher net income for the year and therefore, higher federal and state taxes. And the other piece is we got a refund for the BE on the DT side in 2022, that will not happen in 2023. And therefore, they are more or less half and half that explained increase year-over-year.

是的。首先，安吉，讓我說稅收的增加——你看到的 2023 年的納稅額實際上是由兩個因素造成的。一，我們預計今年的淨收入會更高，因此聯邦和州的稅收也會更高。另一部分是我們在 2022 年獲得了 DT 方面的 BE 退款，這在 2023 年不會發生。因此，它們或多或少是解釋同比增長的一半。

We have -- from the IRA, we have factored in our forecast the impact of the 1% taxes on share buybacks. However, there is no impact for the higher -- for the minimum tax because at this moment, we don't have any indication that the payment based on 2023 net income will be done in 2023. And so when we have more information regarding when this payment, if any, is due, then we will update you.

我們已經 - 從愛爾蘭共和軍，我們在我們的預測中考慮了 1% 稅對股票回購的影響。但是，對於較高的最低稅沒有影響，因為目前，我們沒有任何跡象表明基於 2023 年淨收入的支付將在 2023 年完成。所以當我們有更多關於何時支付的信息時這筆款項（如果有的話）是到期的，那麼我們會通知您。

In general, I would say, as we have said in the past that it's very difficult to do forecasting based on the level of information that we have. But so far, all the indication is for relatively modest impact and also is a temporary impact that will recover after a few years. As soon as we get more details, we will be more precise.

總的來說，我想說，正如我們過去所說，根據我們擁有的信息水平進行預測是非常困難的。但到目前為止，所有跡像都表明影響相對溫和，而且是暫時的影響，幾年後會恢復。一旦我們得到更多細節，我們將更加精確。

Okay. And then separately, also related to the same legislation. So I'm assuming that you are seeing some pickup in renewable power growth, especially in Texas. And I'm just wondering if that means that you should soon announce some additional PPAs again, given that the availability of specialty solar assets should increase in Texas.

好的。再分開，也涉及到同樣的立法。因此，我假設您看到可再生能源增長有所回升，尤其是在德克薩斯州。我只是想知道這是否意味著您應該很快再次宣布一些額外的 PPA，因為德克薩斯州的特種太陽能資產的可用性應該會增加。

Sure. I'll have Rob answer to that, Angie.

當然。我會讓 Rob 回答這個問題，安吉。

When you think about the IRA, you're spot on, right? It provides clarity to the renewable developers. We are in the market all the time, right? So it's not -- we've been kind of at this for a while. So there's a couple of factors in here that we think about. One is availability for them to get their panels on the ground and get them installed. It's the developers in the pipeline that they're kind of working through.

當你想到愛爾蘭共和軍時，你就對了，對吧？它為可再生能源開發商提供了清晰的信息。我們一直都在市場上，對吧？所以它不是 - 我們已經有一段時間了。因此，我們考慮了幾個因素。一個是他們可以將他們的面板放在地上並安裝它們。這是他們正在努力解決的管道中的開發人員。

And then the IRA provides them some clarity around their financing. So what I would expect -- I haven't seen it yet, but I would expect that some of this clarity starts coming into more certainty around offers into us. And as opportunities show up, will lock those up as they make sense for our portfolio. But you're right, the IRA should push solar, wind and battery development across all markets in the U.S.

然後愛爾蘭共和軍為他們提供了一些關於融資的明確性。所以我所期望的 - 我還沒有看到它，但我希望這種清晰度中的一些開始變得更加確定，圍繞向我們提供的報價。隨著機會的出現，將鎖定它們，因為它們對我們的投資組合有意義。但你是對的，IRA 應該在美國所有市場推動太陽能、風能和電池的發展。

Yes. And particularly in Texas, when you look at the plan that ERCOT provides and what we're tracking, I mean, most of the new generation is really renewable energy. So this should help and accelerate. We have this capability pretty well. It's a well-oiled machine. We have been executing before there was a slowdown, and our expectation is going to pick up, and we have great visibility as to when that happens and also the economics around it.

是的。尤其是在德克薩斯州，當您查看 ERCOT 提供的計劃以及我們正在跟踪的內容時，我的意思是，大多數新一代都是可再生能源。因此，這應該會有所幫助並加速。我們非常有這個能力。這是一台潤滑良好的機器。在經濟放緩之前，我們一直在執行，我們的預期將會回升，而且我們對這種情況發生的時間以及周圍的經濟狀況有很好的了解。

Okay. And my last question is the maintenance expense, maintenance CapEx in 2023. So I understand that you are spending more money in light of the higher level of power prices. But is this a level that we should actually expect going forward? Is this just a one-off year with like some major maintenance, something that was either pulled forward or catch up from previous years?

好的。我的最後一個問題是維護費用，即 2023 年的維護資本支出。所以我知道，鑑於電價水平較高，您正在花費更多的錢。但這是我們真正應該期待的水平嗎？這只是一年的一次重大維護，或者是前幾年的進步還是趕上了前幾年的事情？

Well, I mean, I'll ask Alberto to address some of it. I mean, my take -- remember, 2023 has 2 big components, right? I mean the first one is the money that goes into the Unit 8 at WA Parish. And then the second one, obviously, is the increase in maintenance because we want ourself insured given that every megawatt is more valuable with higher power prices. I mean, that's something that the market is going to dictate.

好吧，我的意思是，我會請阿爾貝托解決其中的一些問題。我的意思是，我的看法——請記住，2023 年有兩個重要組成部分，對吧？我的意思是第一個是進入西澳教區第 8 單元的錢。然後第二個，顯然是維護的增加，因為我們希望自己投保，因為每兆瓦在更高的電價下更有價值。我的意思是，這是市場將決定的事情。

What I will tell you is that I am incredibly proud of the team that is so near on (technical difficulty) our generation fleet during years where gas prices were very low, they tightened the belt. They adjusted the maintenance. It was the right decision because not every megawatt was as valuable as it is today. we very quickly pivoted to that. And as I mentioned, we put some capital at work before the summer that yielded really good results. And we're going to continue to do that. So Alberto, I don't know if there's anything else you want.

我要告訴你的是，我為在天然氣價格非常低的年份如此接近（技術難度）我們發電船隊的團隊感到無比自豪，他們勒緊了腰帶。他們調整了維護。這是一個正確的決定，因為並不是每一兆瓦都像今天這樣有價值。我們很快就轉向了這一點。正如我所提到的，我們在夏天之前投入了一些資金，取得了非常好的結果。我們將繼續這樣做。所以阿爾貝托，我不知道你還有什麼想要的。

Yes. I just would like to point you to in the appendix, there is a page in which we highlight the impact on our maintenance CapEx coming in 2022 from Limestone and Parish and also for 2023. Long story short, when you eliminate the impact of these specific CapEx that we spend. You will see that there is around $40 million to $50 million increase in the maintenance CapEx, and this is really due to the fact as Mauricio was mentioning that given the current prices, we think that it is appropriate to increase the reliability of our fleet to basically catch all the opportunity that the current price environment is offering to us.

是的。我只想在附錄中指出，有一個頁面我們強調了石灰石和教區對 2022 年以及 2023 年維護資本支出的影響。長話短說，當您消除這些特定的影響時我們花費的資本支出。您會看到維護資本支出增加了大約 4000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元，這實際上是因為 Mauricio 提到的事實是，鑑於目前的價格，我們認為增加我們機隊的可靠性是合適的基本上抓住了當前價格環境為我們提供的所有機會。

And our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Michael Lapides。

Congrats on a good quarter. I'm looking at Slide 14. And I just want to make sure I understand some of this and a little bit of this may be more nuanced. So the growth plan, the $220 million, can you -- what asset -- is that for 1 big asset? Or is it for lots of little things?

祝賀一個好季度。我正在看幻燈片 14。我只是想確保我了解其中的一些內容，其中的一些內容可能會更加細緻入微。所以增長計劃，2.2 億美元，你能 - 什麼資產 - 是 1 大資產嗎？還是為了很多小事？

No. It is a -- I mean this is really to support our test and learn. So we have identified a number of opportunities, and the scope of those opportunities are actually on Slide 7, Michael. So when you look at whether it is solar, storage, electric vehicles, energy management, protection, security. I mean, the scope is really around essential services, and this is what we have been able to identify today. Obviously, we're working through the execution of our plan, and we will provide updates as we -- throughout the year.

不，這是一個——我的意思是這真的是為了支持我們的測試和學習。所以我們已經確定了一些機會，這些機會的範圍實際上在幻燈片 7 上，邁克爾。所以當你看它是否是太陽能、儲能、電動汽車、能源管理、保護、安全時。我的意思是，範圍實際上是圍繞基本服務，這就是我們今天能夠確定的。顯然，我們正在執行我們的計劃，我們將在全年提供更新。

So let me just -- and this might be 1 for Alberto. So the $220 million in the growth plan and the $111 million and the other investments. Are these all -- like when I look through the 3 statements at this time next year, are they going to flow through CapEx or are they going to flow through cash from operating activities, meaning is it working capital? Or do some of these actually weigh on EBITDA until they start generating EBITDA? Like your guidance for EBITDA would be higher if you weren't -- if you weren't doing the spin.

所以讓我 - 這可能是阿爾貝託的 1。因此，增長計劃中的 2.2 億美元以及 1.11 億美元和其他投資。這些都是 - 就像我在明年這個時候查看 3 份報表時一樣，它們將通過資本支出流動還是將通過運營活動產生的現金流動，這意味著它是營運資本嗎？或者在它們開始產生 EBITDA 之前，其中一些是否會影響 EBITDA？就像您對 EBITDA 的指導會更高，如果您不這樣做 - 如果您不進行旋轉。

No. Regarding -- okay, regarding the other investment, these do not impact EBITDA, they are outside EBITDA. When you look at the growth plans there is a series of initiatives, and we will update you about what is going to EBITDA or not. But for the moment, it's still -- as Mauricio said, it's a series of different initiatives and depending on which one we will prioritize, it will have more CapEx impact or not.

不。關於——好吧，關於其他投資，這些不影響 EBITDA，它們在 EBITDA 之外。當您查看增長計劃時，會有一系列舉措，我們將向您更新 EBITDA 的變化情況。但就目前而言，它仍然是——正如毛里西奧所說，這是一系列不同的舉措，取決於我們將優先考慮的舉措，它是否會對資本支出產生更大的影響。

Meaning some of the -- all right, so the $111 million is all based -- about $111 million is all capitalized. And the $220 million, some of it is capitalized and some of it is flowing through G&A or O&M? And therefore, I'm just trying to make sure because -- like I'm trying to think about recurring versus nonrecurring impacts on EBITDA.

這意味著其中一些——好吧，所以 1.11 億美元是全部基於——大約 1.11 億美元全部資本化。而這 2.2 億美元，其中一部分是資本化的，一部分是通過 G&A 或 O&M 流動的？因此，我只是想確保因為 - 就像我試圖考慮對 EBITDA 的經常性與非經常性影響一樣。

That is a very good question. And what you said is correct. The $111 million, they are not impacting EBITDA, the $220 million. There are some initiatives that could have an impact on OpEx and others that have an impact on CapEx, and we will qualify that in the next quarter.

這是一個很好的問題。而且你說的是對的。 1.11 億美元不會影響 EBITDA，即 2.2 億美元。有一些舉措可能會對運營支出產生影響，而其他舉措可能會對資本支出產生影響，我們將在下個季度對其進行評估。

And just to put a finer point here, Michael. I mean the $220 million, and I want to highlight what could impact, right? But as we are in the process of executing and depending on how do we finalize the go-to-market will have an impact on whether it goes to CapEx and OpEx. So that's, as they say, TBD, to be determined, Michael. But we will provide that transparency as we start executing on the plan.

邁克爾，在這裡提出一個更好的觀點。我的意思是 2.2 億美元，我想強調一下會產生什麼影響，對吧？但是，由於我們正在執行過程中，並且取決於我們如何最終確定上市，這將對它是否進入資本支出和運營支出產生影響。所以，正如他們所說，待定，邁克爾。但是，當我們開始執行計劃時，我們將提供這種透明度。

We have a question from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

我們有一個來自摩根士丹利的 David Arcaro 的問題。

Wondering if you could talk a little bit to customer growth trends that you're seeing and any churn in the business? Are you still seeing kind of a flight to safety in this backdrop and this high commodity price backdrop. Noticed that there was a slight decline in the total customer count versus the prior quarter. So I'm curious to any information there.

想知道您是否可以談談您所看到的客戶增長趨勢以及業務中的任何流失？在這種背景和高商品價格的背景下，您是否仍然看到一種逃往安全的方式。注意到總客戶數量與上一季度相比略有下降。所以我很好奇那裡的任何信息。

Sure. Elizabeth?

當然。伊麗莎白？

Yes. Thanks for the question, David. We were really pleased with our performance, the team and the engine during a really volatile third quarter. We did perform, continue to perform in third quarter as we had year-to-date better than our budget. You may recall from prior discussions, we do generally see customer attrition from large M&A, which was DE, which was very large as well as from small book acquisitions, which we have done a handful of those year-to-date.

是的。謝謝你的問題，大衛。在非常動蕩的第三季度，我們對我們的表現、團隊和引擎感到非常滿意。我們確實表現良好，並在第三季度繼續表現，因為我們年初至今的表現好於我們的預算。您可能還記得之前的討論，我們確實看到客戶流失來自大型併購，即 DE，這是非常大的，以及來自小型圖書收購，我們今年迄今已經完成了一些。

But the good news is we're performing better than expected on both DE and the customer books. From a sales engine perspective, we are -- we have a very strong engine overperformance in the quarter, occurred in both our face-to-face and our digital channels. And cross-serve also performed very well during the quarter, better than budget.

但好消息是我們在 DE 和客戶賬簿上的表現都好於預期。從銷售引擎的角度來看，我們在本季度的引擎表現非常強勁，這發生在我們的面對面和數字渠道中。交叉服務在本季度的表現也非常好，超過了預算。

And from a retention perspective, we also are seeing really strong performance given the backdrop of very high prices from both the cost increases associated with the power to fulfill for them as well as the higher usage during some of the weather that we experience. So really pleased with the attrition during the quarter and looking forward to continuing to deliver for you guys.

從留存率的角度來看，在價格非常高的背景下，我們也看到了非常強勁的表現，這既是因為與為他們提供服務的能力相關的成本增加，也是在我們經歷的某些天氣中使用率更高。對本季度的減員感到非常滿意，並期待繼續為你們提供服務。

Yes. And just -- I mean, the team does a fantastic job on balancing customer account and margin. And that's what we do every day. We have tremendous insights from our customers. And as Elizabeth said, both our retention numbers and our bad debt numbers are pretty well in line, very robust. And customer count is just a result of a very intentional strategy around balancing customer account and retail margins. So I'm very pleased with the team.

是的。只是 - 我的意思是，團隊在平衡客戶賬戶和保證金方面做得非常出色。這就是我們每天所做的。我們從客戶那裡獲得了深刻的見解。正如伊麗莎白所說，我們的保留數字和壞賬數字都非常吻合，非常穩健。客戶數量只是圍繞平衡客戶賬戶和零售利潤的非常有意策略的結果。所以我對團隊非常滿意。

Got it. Great. That's helpful. And then I was wondering if -- maybe 2 quicker ones, but does the 2023 outlook include business interruption insurance proceeds coming in? Wondering how much of that might be in the guidance? And then maybe just a little more higher level, Mauricio, is there still more to do in terms of portfolio and real estate optimization with where the business currently stands? Is that something you'll be looking at into 2023 as well?

知道了。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我想知道是否 - 可能是 2 個更快的，但 2023 年的前景是否包括業務中斷保險收益？想知道指導中可能包含多少內容？然後可能只是更高一點，毛里西奧，在投資組合和房地產優化方面還有更多工作要做嗎？到 2023 年，您也會關注這一點嗎？

Sure, Alberto?

當然，阿爾貝托？

Yes. Regarding the business insurance proceeds, I can confirm what we said in the prior call and basically the negative impact of Parish 8 in the first half of 2023 will be absorbed by the insurance proceeds as we have factored in our forecast.

是的。關於商業保險收益，我可以確認我們在之前的電話會議中所說的話，基本上，2023 年上半年第 8 區的負面影響將被保險收益所吸收，正如我們在預測中所考慮的那樣。

And with respect to the portfolio optimization, again, I mean, this is something that we're looking on a continuous basis. We haven't stopped. I mean the Astoria sale in Watson is an example of what we're doing.

關於投資組合優化，我的意思是，這是我們一直在尋找的東西。我們沒有停下來。我的意思是，在 Watson 的 Astoria 銷售就是我們正在做的一個例子。

A couple of quarters ago, I said that we are going to move into evaluating brownfield development, both in our Midwest fleet as well as in Texas. The team has been working on looking at these opportunities. And what I will tell you is also we're looking at potential partnering opportunities because we want to make sure that we -- the capital that we use is the right structure. I don't want to create friction in the system if we don't have to.

幾個季度前，我說過我們將開始評估棕地開發，包括我們的中西部機隊和德克薩斯州。該團隊一直在努力尋找這些機會。我要告訴你的是，我們也在尋找潛在的合作機會，因為我們想確保我們 - 我們使用的資本是正確的結構。如果我們不需要，我不想在系統中製造摩擦。

So both in terms of brownfield opportunities and in terms of partnering opportunities, we have been very busy, and I hope to give you a more fulsome update in the coming quarters.

因此，無論是在棕地機會還是在合作機會方面，我們都非常忙，我希望在接下來的幾個季度裡給你一個更充實的更新。

And our final question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

So just for the 2022 guidance, the -- I think your Texas segment is down $75 million maybe from the initial guide. How much of that is attributed to the Parish limestone outages net of any money you're getting back this year?

因此，僅就 2022 年的指南而言，我認為您的德克薩斯州部分可能比最初的指南減少了 7500 萬美元。其中有多少是由於教區石灰石停電造成的，而您今年收回的任何款項？

Steve, I'll turn it to Alberto.

史蒂夫，我會把它交給阿爾貝托。

Yes. It's almost entirely the full amount that we highlighted in $220 million, Steve. So that's the main (inaudible). Okay?

是的。史蒂夫，這幾乎完全是我們在 2.2 億美元中強調的全部金額。這就是主要的（聽不清）。好的？

Okay. And then the $175 million boost in East West other. Could you just explain what's driving that?

好的。然後是東西方其他方面的 1.75 億美元提振。你能解釋一下是什麼原因造成的嗎？

Yes. Normally, Steve, we are very conservative when we plan our gas optimization activity this year, given the fact there has been a lot of volatility, the performance has been very good in that area. And also, obviously, we have benefited so from some higher margin from prices coming from our generation fleet in the East. But normally, you will see that if we do better in the East is driven by the gas.

是的。通常情況下，史蒂夫，我們在計劃今年的氣體優化活動時非常保守，考慮到波動很大的事實，該領域的表現非常好。而且，很明顯，我們從東部發電機隊的價格中獲得了更高的利潤率。但通常情況下，你會看到，如果我們在東部做得更好是由氣驅動的。

Okay. And then just as we think about the '23 guidance, are you assuming that, that better optimization continues or that, that...

好的。然後就像我們考慮 '23 指南一樣，您是假設繼續進行更好的優化還是假設...

Yes, we have more established.

是的，我們已經更成熟了。

Okay.

好的。

Yes. It's always -- I mean, we always use market as an indication to guide us in terms of the profitability of our portfolio, right? So if you look at the heat rates for 2023, we use market prices, market heat rates still inform our guidance.

是的。它總是——我的意思是，我們總是使用市場作為指導我們投資組合盈利能力的指標，對吧？因此，如果您查看 2023 年的熱電價，我們使用市場價格，市場熱電價仍會影響我們的指導。

Okay. And then just the $400 million -- $397 million of buyback, you intend to complete that fully in the market by year-end, not when you're going to do an ASR or something or?

好的。然後只是 4 億美元——3.97 億美元的回購，你打算在年底前在市場上完全完成，而不是在你打算做 ASR 或其他什麼的時候？

I mean our intention is to complete towards the end of the year, and that's basically our plan right now.

我的意思是我們的目標是在年底前完成，這基本上是我們現在的計劃。

Okay. And then on ERCOT market structure, I mean it's kind of gotten quiet, but I think there's a lot about to happen. So just to the degree that they put in some kind of dispatchable market, separate market. How are you thinking about how that impacts your portfolio and how you manage that through the retail side?

好的。然後關於 ERCOT 市場結構，我的意思是它有點安靜，但我認為有很多事情要發生。因此，就在某種程度上，他們將某種可調度的市場、獨立的市場放入其中。您如何看待這將如何影響您的投資組合以及您如何通過零售方面進行管理？

Well, I mean, a couple of things. And I think you're absolutely right, Steve. It's going to get really busy, I think, middle of November, there is going to be a recommendation from ERCOT and the PUCT. We've been working with them alongside throughout this entire time. We provided our a number of initiatives. I know that they're evaluating. At the end of the day, I think that's also going to be informed by how the Texas Grid has operated. And as I said, I mean, we broke the load record 39x this summer. And not even once we went into EA1, emergency situation.

嗯，我的意思是，有幾件事。我認為你是絕對正確的，史蒂夫。我想，11 月中旬會變得非常忙碌，ERCOT 和 PUCT 將會提出建議。在整個過程中，我們一直在與他們一起工作。我們提供了一些倡議。我知道他們正在評估。歸根結底，我認為德州電網的運作方式也會影響這一點。正如我所說，我的意思是，我們今年夏天打破了 39 倍的負載記錄。甚至在我們進入緊急情況 EA1 時也沒有。

So I think the grid is, well, when I look at the pipeline, it's very robust with lots of new renewable generation. So enough to meet current demand and future demand. So I think that's going to inform some of it. At the end of the day, they end up with some sort of dispatchable product. we've been working really hard in terms of the brownfield opportunities on our own sites.

所以我認為電網是，好吧，當我查看管道時，它非常強大，有很多新的可再生能源發電。所以足以滿足當前的需求和未來的需求。所以我認為這會通知一些。歸根結底，他們最終得到了某種可發貨的產品。在我們自己的網站上的棕地機會方面，我們一直在努力工作。

And obviously, that will play really well for participants like us who have sites in good locations already connected to the grid. And I think that gives us a cost advantage that we intend to fully utilize and monetize.

顯然，對於像我們這樣的參與者來說，這將非常有效，因為他們的站點位於已經連接到電網的好位置。我認為這給了我們一個成本優勢，我們打算充分利用和貨幣化。

And there is no further questions in the queue. I'd like to turn the call back to Mauricio Gutierrez, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回總裁兼首席執行官毛里西奧·古鐵雷斯 (Mauricio Gutierrez) 的閉幕詞。

Thank you, Katherine. Well, thank you all for your interest in NRG, and I look forward to continue updating you as we move to our next phase in the company. So thank you all for your attention.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。好吧，感謝大家對 NRG 的興趣，我期待在我們進入公司下一階段時繼續更新您的信息。所以謝謝大家的關注。

And thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the call.

並感謝您參加今天的會議。這結束了通話。