NRG Energy Inc (NRG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NRG Energy, Inc. Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 NRG Energy, Inc. 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kevin Cole, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係主管凱文·科爾 (Kevin Cole)。請繼續。

Thank you, Katherine. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length and being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com, under Presentations and Webcast.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。早安，歡迎參加 NRG Energy 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上的電話會議將持續 45 分鐘，並透過電話和網路廣播進行現場直播，您可以在我們網站 www.nrg.com 的「投資者」部分的「簡報和網路廣播」下找到。

Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of its date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law.

請注意，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們認為截至目前合理的假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們敦促大家審查今天演示中的安全港以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的風險因素。除非法律要求，我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。

In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures, please see the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Please refer to today's presentation.

此外，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。有關我們的非 GAAP 財務指標的信息，請參閱最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標。請參閱今天的介紹。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Mauricio Gutierrez, NRG's President and CEO.

現在，我將把電話轉給 NRG 總裁兼執行長 Mauricio Gutierrez。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in NRG. I'm joined this morning by Alberto Fornaro, Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call and available for questions, we have Elizabeth Killinger, Head of Home; Rob Gaudette, Head of Business and Market Operations; and Chris Moser, Head of Competitive Markets and policy.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安，感謝大家對 NRG 的關注。今天早上與我一起參加的是財務長 Alberto Fornaro。同樣參加電話會議並回答問題的還有家庭主管 Elizabeth Killinger； Rob Gaudette，業務和市場營運主管；以及競爭市場和政策主管克里斯·莫澤 (Chris Moser)。

I'd like to start with the 3 key messages for today's presentation on Slide 4. We're narrowing our 2022 EBITDA guidance to the bottom end of the range, as we indicated on our last earnings call, and we are initiating 2023 financial guidance in line with our Investor Day plan. We continue to make good progress on our strategic priorities and have now completed the initial phase of our test and learn program. The insights that we have gained from this process will inform our next phase of growing from our core Energy business into adjacent essential home services.

我想從幻燈片 4 上今天演示的 3 個關鍵信息開始。我們在策略重點上繼續取得良好進展，目前已完成測試和學習計劃的初始​​階段。我們從這一過程中獲得的見解將為我們的下一階段發展提供參考，即從核心能源業務擴展到相鄰的基本家庭服務。

Finally, as I committed to you we are announcing our 2023 capital allocation plan, which includes an incremental $600 million share repurchase program, consistent with our long-term capital allocation principles. Our business performed well during the third quarter, which was characterized by extreme price volatility and record load in our key Texas market. I am very proud of our team which once again achieved another quarter of top decile safety performance despite these challenging market conditions.

最後，正如我向您承諾的那樣，我們宣布了 2023 年資本配置計劃，其中包括增量 6 億美元的股票回購計劃，這與我們的長期資本配置原則一致。我們的業務在第三季表現良好，該季度的特點是，我們的主要德州市場價格波動極大，負荷創下了歷史新高。我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，儘管市場條件嚴峻，但我們仍再次取得了本季最高安全績效。

As you can see on Slide 5, we delivered $452 million of adjusted EBITDA, entirety of the change compared to last year was previously identified with 60% coming from asset sales and transitory impacts and 40% from the unplanned outage at our WA Parish facility. With these results, we are narrowing our 2022 EBITDA guidance to the bottom end of the range. Alberto will provide additional details in his section.

正如您在幻燈片 5 上看到的，我們實現了 4.52 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，與去年相比，這一變化的全部原因已被確定為 60% 來自資產銷售和暫時性影響，40% 來自我們 WA Parish 工廠的計劃外停電。根據這些結果，我們將 2022 年 EBITDA 預期縮小至範圍底端。 Alberto 將在他的部分提供更多詳細資訊。

We also made good progress on all our key strategic priorities. We have now achieved our direct energy synergy target for 2022 and remain on track to achieve the full run rate of $300 million by next year. We continue to optimize our generation portfolio by retiring uneconomic fossil fuel plants, monetizing noncore assets and partnering for brownfield development.

我們在所有關鍵策略重點上也取得了良好進展。我們目前已實現了 2022 年的直接能源協同目標，並預計在明年實現 3 億美元的全額運行率。我們透過關閉不經濟的化石燃料電廠、將非核心資產貨幣化以及合作進行棕地開發來繼續優化我們的發電組合。

As part of this effort, we are selling the Astoria side for approximately $200 million in net cash proceeds.

作為這項努力的一部分，我們將以約 2 億美元的淨現金收益出售阿斯托利亞部分。

On our growth program, we continue to focus on cross-selling power and gas to our existing customer network. And with respect to our test and learn program, we have gained significant insights and are ready to start executing on our plan. I will discuss in greater detail later in the presentation. We also have made good progress on our $1 billion share repurchase program for 2022 with $603 million completed to date and $397 million yet to be completed.

在我們的成長計畫中，我們繼續專注於向現有客戶網路交叉銷售電力和天然氣。關於我們的測驗和學習計劃，我們已經獲得了重要的見解，並準備開始執行我們的計劃。我將在後面的演講中更詳細地討論。我們 2022 年 10 億美元股票回購計畫也取得了良好進展，迄今已完成 6.03 億美元，還有 3.97 億美元尚未完成。

Finally, today, we're introducing 2023 financial guidance of $2.27 billion to $2.47 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.52 billion to $1.72 billion of free cash flow before growth, in line with our Investor Day outlook.

最後，今天，我們推出 2023 年財務指引，即調整後 EBITDA 為 22.7 億美元至 24.7 億美元，成長前自由現金流為 15.2 億美元至 17.2 億美元，與我們的投資者日展望一致。

As I mentioned to you, weather conditions in Texas were extreme this past summer, with ERCOT surpassing the old peak demand record 39x driven by record heating the early part of the summer and a strong Texas economy.

正如我剛才提到的，今年夏天德克薩斯州的天氣條件非常極端，受初夏創紀錄的高溫和德克薩斯州強勁的經濟推動，ERCOT 的峰值需求超過了舊的峰值記錄 39 倍。

As you can see on the bottom left of the Slide 6, power price expectations, which are shown in the light blue bars, were as wide as I have ever seen them. This volatility was the result of record low coupled with uncertainty around production from nondispatchable renewable generation. Importantly, it took record sustained hit coupled with low renewable production to materialize into the high real-time power prices we experienced in May and July.

正如您在第 6 張投影片的左下角所看到的，電價預期（以淺藍色長條表示）是我所見過的最寬的。這種波動是由於不可調度的再生能源發電產量創歷史新低，再加上產量的不確定性所造成的。重要的是，創紀錄的持續打擊加上再生能源發電量低下，導致了我們在五月和七月經歷的高實時電價。

It is worth pointing out that even during these scarcity periods, we never triggered an emergency event, not even once. This is a testament that the Texas Grid is strong and working as intended with enough capacity to meet current and future demand. Turning to the right-hand side of the slide. We continue to see strong demand from our customers with no notable increase in bad debt levels.

值得指出的是，即使在這些稀缺時期，我們也從未觸發過緊急事件，一次也沒有。這證明德州電網實力雄厚，運作正常，擁有足夠的容量來滿足當前和未來的需求。轉向幻燈片的右側。我們持續看到客戶需求強勁，壞帳水準沒有明顯增加。

Retention has also remained strong, driven in part by our unmatched insights to pricing and customer preference, which enables us to navigate periods of high price and high volatility. We have also been successful in extending the average term of a new Texas customer contract to 2 years. This extension is good for both our customers and our shareholders given it as stability and predictability to customer bills and our earnings.

保留率也保持強勁，部分原因是我們對定價和客戶偏好無與倫比的洞察力，這使我們能夠度過高價和高波動的時期。我們也成功將德州新客戶合約的平均期限延長至 2 年。此次延期對我們的客戶和股東來說都是有利的，因為它可以提高客戶帳單和我們收益的穩定性和可預測性。

On the supply side, our generation portfolio performed well during the summer while the team managed the impact of the WA Paris unit 8 outage. We were able to expand our maintenance program ahead of the summer, which resulted in better operational performance. Looking ahead, and as I discussed in our last call, we will increase maintenance capital in our plants, given higher power prices.

在供應方面，我們的發電組合在夏季表現良好，同時團隊控制了西澳巴黎 8 號機組停電的影響。我們能夠在夏季來臨之前擴大我們的維護計劃，從而提高營運績效。展望未來，正如我在上次電話會議中所討論的那樣，鑑於電價上漲，我們將增加工廠的維護資本。

Now I'd like to spend some time talking about our ongoing efforts in moving closer to the customer. We introduced the diagram on Slide 7 during our Investor Day to capture our vision of the smart home. As you can see from the table on the right, we have made substantial progress in laying the foundation to execute on our vision to become the leading provider of essential services at home.

現在我想花點時間談談我們為更貼近客戶所做的持續努力。我們在投資者日期間介紹了幻燈片 7 上的圖表，以捕捉我們對智慧家庭的願景。從右側的表格中您可以看到，我們在實現成為國內領先基本服務提供者的願景方面奠定了堅實的基礎，並取得了實質進展。

During the year, we evaluated over a dozen adjacent offerings and engaged in multiple partnership pilots for EVs, on solar and other home services. By starting small, it allowed us to stay nimble while gathering critical market intelligence to inform how we approach these new customer offerings.

在這一年中，我們評估了十多個相鄰的產品，並在電動車、太陽能和其他家庭服務領域進行了多個合作試點。從小處著手，讓我們能夠保持靈活性，同時收集關鍵的市場情報，以了解我們如何對待這些新客戶產品。

The result of these programs help validate our assumptions and provides confidence in how to execute our customer-centric strategy.

這些專案的結果有助於驗證我們的假設，並為如何執行以客戶為中心的策略提供了信心。

Now let me put a finer point on our key findings on Slide 8. First, the Internet of Things is here and is enabling the smart home opportunity. People are connecting new devices every day with an average of 25 devices per home. This number has more than doubled since 2019 and continues to grow rapidly, resulting in multiple interfaces that don't necessarily interact with each other. Customers want simple, connected and customized experiences. It is clear that a single interface for the home is of increasing importance, and customer attitudes around these services are shifting from nice to have to need to have.

現在，讓我更詳細地闡述第 8 張投影片中我們的關鍵發現。人們每天都會連接新設備，平均每個家庭有 25 台設備。這一數字自 2019 年以來增加了一倍多，並且仍在快速增長，導致多個介面不一定相互互動。客戶想要簡單、連結和客製化的體驗。顯然，家庭的單一介面變得越來越重要，並且客戶對這些服務的態度正在從「好」轉變為「必須有」。

Next, electrification of the economy through smart technology and clean energy choices is real. We are seeing an increasing number of devices and appliances connected like HVAC, water heaters, battery, rooftop solar and other. In addition to having greater penetration of electric vehicles.

其次，透過智慧技術和清潔能源選擇實現經濟電氣化是現實。我們看到越來越多的設備和電器接入，如暖通空調、熱水器、電池、屋頂太陽能等。除了電動車普及率更高之外。

Finally, customers are demanding access to cleaner, affordable and more resilient solutions. This is in part driven by a desire to be a part of a more sustainable future, reinforced by a need for resiliency in the face of more extreme weather. And importantly, this has been accelerated by advancements in technology and policy.

最後，客戶要求獲得更乾淨、更實惠、更具彈性的解決方案。這在某種程度上是人們渴望成為更永續未來的一部分，而面對更極端的天氣，人們需要更強的復原力。重要的是，技術和政策的進步加速了這一進程。

With this integrated ecosystem at home, there is a significant value opportunity as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide. For NRG, we can offer adjacent products and services that leverages our existing energy operating platform, allowing us to access cost savings and provide superior customer experience. This advantage means broader insights into how customers interact with their homes, which translates into additional margin opportunities and increased brand loyalty.

正如您在幻燈片右側看到的那樣，有了這種整合的家庭生態系統，就有了巨大的價值機會。對於 NRG，我們可以提供利用我們現有能源營運平台的鄰近產品和服務，讓我們節省成本並提供卓越的客戶體驗。這項優勢意味著可以更廣泛地了解客戶如何與他們的家居互動，從而帶來額外的利潤機會和更高的品牌忠誠度。

Now turning to Slide 9. In 2023, we will increase efforts to grow our bundled expansion products and services through a mix of existing offerings, strategic partnerships and vertical integration. All of them aimed at making NRG the leading provider of essential services at home.

現在轉到投影片 9。2023 年，我們將透過現有產品、策略合作夥伴關係和垂直整合相結合的方式，加強發展我們的捆綁擴展產品和服務。所有這些都旨在使 NRG 成為國內基本服務的領先提供者。

We are also providing our capital allocation plan for 2023, which is in line with our long-term capital allocation principles. Our plan is to return 50% of our capital available for allocation to our shareholders with an incremental $600 million share repurchase program and an 8% increase in our annual dividend. For the remaining 50%, we're allocating $331 million to identify growth investments and reserving $620 million to be deployed throughout the year to the highest return opportunity between growth and share repurchases.

我們也提供了 2023 年的資本配置計劃，這符合我們的長期資本配置原則。我們的計劃是透過 6 億美元的股票回購計畫和 8% 的年度股利增加，將 50% 的可分配資本返還給股東。對於剩餘的 50%，我們分配 3.31 億美元用於確定成長投資，並保留 6.2 億美元用於全年部署，以實現成長與股票回購之間的最高回報機會。

So with that, I will pass it over to Alberto for the financial review.

因此，我將把財務審查交給 Alberto。

Thank you, Mauricio. I will now turn to Slide 11 for a review of the third quarter results. Energy delivered $452 million in adjusted EBITDA a $350 million decline versus prior year. Similar to our Q2 results, this year-over-year decline was the result of previously announced variances. As shown in the chart on the bottom left side of the slide, EUR 190 million of the decline was from asset sales and retirements, plus the transitory items included in our initial guidance.

謝謝你，毛里西奧。現在我將轉到投影片 11 回顧第三季的業績。能源業務調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 4.52 億美元，較前一年下降 3.5 億美元。與我們第二季的業績類似，這一同比下降是先前公佈的差異造成的。如幻燈片左下方的圖表所示，其中 1.9 億歐元的下降來自資產出售和退休，以及我們初步預期中包含的暫時性項目。

The remaining $125 million variance is almost entirely due to the replacement power costs related to the unplanned Parish Unit 8 outage and maintenance expenses in the same unit for which we expect reimbursement from the property insurance company in Q4 of this year.

剩餘的 1.25 億美元差異幾乎完全是由於與 Parish 8 號機組意外停電相關的更換電力成本，以及同一機組的維護費用，我們預計財產保險公司將在今年第四季度償還這筆費用。

Texas adjusted EBITDA declined $263 million compared to the third quarter of last year. July was the second hottest month of record dating back to 1895 which drove extreme price volatility and higher lows. This amplified the financial impact of the unplanned outage given the need to replace this power with a mix of higher cost internal generation and market purchases to satisfy the weather-driven increase in demand.

德州調整後的 EBITDA 與去年第三季相比下降了 2.63 億美元。 7月份是自1895年以來有記錄以來第二熱的月份，導致價格劇烈波動，最低價不斷上升。由於需要用成本更高的內部發電和市場採購相結合的方式來替代這些電力以滿足天氣導致的電力需求增長，這加劇了非計劃停電帶來的財務影響。

Q3 results in Texas were also impacted by higher operating costs in the form of increased maintenance expense. Approximately half of the increase was for work at WA Parish Unit 8 that will be reimbursed by insurance in Q4 and the remaining increase from our maintenance program that helped ensure strong reliability of the rest of the fleet through a volatile summer.

德州第三季的業績也受到維護費用增加等更高營運成本的影響。大約一半的成長是用於西澳教區第 8 號機組的維修工作，該費用將在第四季度通過保險報銷，剩餘的增長則來自我們的維護計劃，該計劃有助於確保其餘機組在動蕩的夏季保持強大的可靠性。

Turning to the East, West and other segment. The year-over-year decline of EUR 52 million was primarily driven by the reduction from previously announced asset sales and retirement and supply chain constraints. Now after taking those items into account, adjusted EBITDA increased by $111 million compared to Q3 of 2021 from increased revenue rate, natural gas optimization and operations at [Cote].

轉向東方、西方和其他部分。年減 5,200 萬歐元，主要由於先前宣布的資產出售和退役以及供應鏈限制導致的減少。現在，考慮到這些項目後，調整後的 EBITDA 與 2021 年第三季相比增加了 1.11 億美元，這得益於收入率的提高、天然氣優化以及 [Cote] 的運作。

Briefly referencing year-to-date results. Energy has delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.39 billion, a $671 million decline versus prior year. The drivers of our year-to-date results are similar to that of the quarter with permanent and transitory items, the unplanned outage of WA Parish Unit 8 and increased maintenance expenses driving the decline versus prior year.

簡單參考年初至今的結果。能源業務調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 13.9 億美元，較前一年下降 6.71 億美元。我們年初至今的業績驅動因素與本季類似，永久性和暫時性項目、西澳教區 8 號機組的計劃外停運以及維護費用的增加導致業績較上年同期下降。

The free cash flow before growth for both Q3 and year-to-date results have been impacted by reduced year-over-year EBITDA levels, as discussed earlier and the increase in net working capital. Working capital requirements increased progressively during the year due to higher gas and power prices and in Q3, due the combined effect of higher seasonal power receivables and natural gas inventories.

如同前面所討論的，第三季和年初至今業績的成長前自由現金流受到了同比 EBITDA 水準下降和淨營運資本增加的影響。由於天然氣和電力價格上漲，以及第三季季節性電力應收帳款和天然氣庫存增加的綜合影響，營運資金需求在年內逐步增加。

We have also seen a $32 million increase year-over-year in maintenance CapEx, driven entirely by spending to repay the limestone and the WA Parish Unit 8 facility. This increased spend will be recovered by year-end through property insurance proceeds.

我們也看到維護資本支出年增 3,200 萬美元，這完全是由償還石灰石和 WA Parish Unit 8 設施的支出所推動的。這筆增加的支出將在年底前透過財產保險收益收回。

Next, I want to update you on the achievement of Direct Energy synergies. We have achieved our full year target of $50 million during the quarter and continue to remain focused on achieving the full $300 million run rate next year.

接下來，我想向大家介紹直接能源綜效的進展。我們在本季已經實現了 5,000 萬美元的全年目標，並將繼續致力於明年實現 3 億美元的全年營運目標。

Now moving to the full year 2022 guidance. We are narrowing our adjusted EBITDA range to $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. In line with my previous comment of success in partially offsetting the $220 million negative impact from Parish Unit 8 and planned outage. At this time, we are at the bottom of the range.

現在轉向 2022 年全年指引。我們將調整後的 EBITDA 範圍縮小至 19.5 億美元至 20.5 億美元。與我之前的評論一致，我們成功部分抵消了 Parish 8 號機組和計劃停電造成的 2.2 億美元負面影響。目前，我們正處於範圍的底部。

Now given the implied strong Q4 results, let me provide additional details. We are expecting over a $200 million increase versus prior year, about $100 million coming from direct energy synergies, insurance proceeds for Limestone in Paris and other general cost reduction. The remaining coming from power and natural gas optimization opportunity leading us to make our natural gas full fleet, fully available in Q4.

現在，鑑於第四季度業績預期強勁，讓我提供更多細節。我們預計收入將比前一年增加 2 億美元以上，其中約 1 億美元來自直接能源協同效應、巴黎石灰石的保險收益以及其他一般成本削減。剩餘的資金來自電力和天然氣優化機會，這將使我們的天然氣車隊在第四季度全面投入使用。

Now turning to 2022 free cash flow before growth guidance. We are reducing our full year guidance range to $950 million to $1.050 billion with 1/3 of the reduction from the narrowing of the adjusted EBITDA guidance and 2/3 from the temporary increase in working capital from higher prices and inventories. And so as we head into the winter season, we made a conscious decision to increase our inventory levels for both natural gas and coal to provide contingency against the transportation challenges and the potential for extreme winter weather, driving a $50 million reduction in the free cash flow for the year.

現在來談談 2022 年成長指引前的自由現金流。我們將全年預期範圍下調至 9.5 億美元至 10.5 億美元，其中 1/3 的減幅來自調整後 EBITDA 預期的縮減，2/3 的減幅來自價格上漲和庫存增加導致的營運資本暫時增加。因此，隨著冬季的臨近，我們有意識地決定增加天然氣和煤炭的庫存水平，以應對運輸挑戰和極端冬季天氣的可能性，導致當年的自由現金流減少了 5000 萬美元。

We have captured the reversal of these higher inventory quantities in our guidance for 2023, which I will discuss later in the call. In addition to the higher inventory quantities, prices for natural gas and power have also increased since the last call, resulting in an additional value of our inventories and net receivables for approximately $140 million. which will be reversed with lower commodity prices. The combined $190 million impact of these factors result in reduced expectation for 2022 free cash flow before group.

我們在 2023 年的指引中捕捉到了這些較高庫存數量的逆轉，我將在稍後的電話會議上討論。除了庫存數量增加之外，自上次統計以來，天然氣和電力的價格也有所上漲，導致我們的庫存和淨應收帳款價值增加約 1.4 億美元。隨著大宗商品價格的下跌，這一趨勢將會逆轉。這些因素合計影響 1.9 億美元，導致 2022 年集團前自由現金流預期下降。

I will now turn to Slide 12 for an update on our planned 2022 capital allocation. Consistent with past practice, we have highlighted change from last quarter in blue. Starting from the left, we have updated the midpoint of our free cash flow before growth guidance by $290 million, $100 million from lower EBITDA guidance and $190 million from increases in working capital.

現在，我將轉到投影片 12，以了解我們 2022 年資本配置計畫的最新情況。與過去的做法一致，我們用藍色突出顯示了上一季的變化。從左邊開始，我們將成長指引前的自由現金流中點更新了 2.9 億美元，其中 1 億美元來自較低的 EBITDA 指引，1.9 億美元來自營運資本的增加。

As you know, cash generation is a key objective for energy. And our team has been focused on offsetting this negative impact. We were able to assess a significant portion of those reductions by capturing $212 million of net cash proceeds from the sale of Astoria allowing us to utilize and distribute capital consistent with our commitments.

眾所周知，創造現金是能源的關鍵目標。我們的團隊一直致力於抵消這種負面影響。我們透過出售 Astoria 獲得了 2.12 億美元的淨現金收益，從而能夠評估其中很大一部分減幅，這使我們能夠根據承諾利用和分配資本。

Next, we expect to capture an additional of $6 million from winter store remittance related to additional recovery. Next, we continue to make progress in executing our $1 billion share repurchase program. At the end of October, we have $397 million to be completed by around year-end.

接下來，我們預計將從與額外恢復相關的冬季商店匯款中獲得額外的 600 萬美元。接下來我們繼續推進10億美元股票回購計畫的執行。截至十月，我們有 3.97 億美元需要在年底前完成。

And finally, we have committed $100 million of operating CapEx spend related to our $2 billion growth plan, which when coupled with our investments, other investments leads to $286 million of capital available for allocation.

最後，我們承諾投入 1 億美元的營運資本支出，用於我們的 20 億美元成長計劃，加上我們的投資和其他投資，將產生 2.86 億美元的可供分配的資本。

Moving to 2023, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth guidance, we are pleased to announce that our expectation for 2023, in line with previous targets. We're introducing strong 2023 financial guidance of $2.27 billion to $2.47 billion for adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth of $1.52 billion to $1.72 billion. EBITDA guidance includes the full year impact of asset sales and other permanent [interims] that we captured in our guidance for 2022.

展望 2023 年，調整後的 EBITDA 和成長指引前的自由現金流，我們很高興地宣布，我們對 2023 年的預期與先前的目標一致。我們推出了強有力的 2023 年財務指導，調整後 EBITDA 為 22.7 億美元至 24.7 億美元，成長前自由現金流為 15.2 億美元至 17.2 億美元。 EBITDA 指引包括我們在 2022 年指引中所捕捉到的資產出售和其他永久性[中期]的全年影響。

Although we expect some continued impact from cold constraints, we are able to offset those and the other transitory items that impacted our 2022 guidance.

儘管我們預期寒冷天氣限制會持續產生一定影響，但我們能夠抵消這些影響以及其他影響我們 2022 年指引的暫時性因素。

I will now turn to Slide 14. For the introduction of our 2023 $1.9 billion capital allocation plan. As Mauricio mentioned, in his section, our capital allocation is directly in line with our long-standing principle and cadence of allocation.

現在我將轉到投影片 14。正如 Mauricio 在他的部分中提到的，我們的資本配置與我們長期以來的配置原則和節奏直接一致。

Today, we are starting the conversation by allocating 50% to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases and allocating a portion of the 50% opportunistic back to identified group, leaving 35% to be allocated throughout the year to the highest returning investments while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

今天，我們開始討論透過股息和股票回購將 50% 分配給股東，並將 50% 中的部分機會性資產重新分配給已確定的群體，剩下的 35% 則在全年分配給回報率最高的投資，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。

Now moving left to right, we start with the midpoint of our free cash flow before growth guidance range of $1.62 billion, plus $286 million of unallocated 2022 CAFA, capital available for allocation, totaling $1.9 million in capital for allocation. Next, we have allocated $220 million identified for our growth program and $111 million for other investments to fund additional investment to support the integration of Direct Energy, innovation projects and small book acquisition.

現在從左到右移動，我們從增長指導範圍之前的自由現金流中點 16.2 億美元開始，加上未分配的 2022 CAFA 2.86 億美元，可供分配的資本總計 190 萬美元。接下來，我們已撥款 2.2 億美元用於成長計劃，並撥款 1.11 億美元用於其他投資，以資助額外投資，支持 Direct Energy 的整合、創新項目和小書收購。

Next, on return on capital, we are allocating $347 million to dividends, consistent with our 7% to 9% annual dividend per share growth target and announcing a new share repurchase program of $600 million to be executed immediately following the full execution of our current $1 billion program. Finally, this leaves $628 million of 2023 capital available for allocation to be allocated throughout the year. We look forward to providing you with updates to our progress throughout 2023.

接下來，在資本回報方面，我們將分配 3.47 億美元用於股息，與我們 7% 至 9% 的年度每股股息增長目標一致，並宣布將在全面執行我們目前的 10 億美元計劃後立即執行一項 6 億美元的新股票回購計劃。最後，剩下 6.28 億美元的 2023 年資本可供全年分配。我們期待向您提供我們在 2023 年的進展更新。

Back to you, Mauricio.

回到你身邊，毛里西奧。

Thank you, Alberto. I want to provide some closing thoughts on Slide 16. We have made significant progress across all of our key priorities this year, including the direct energy integration, portfolio optimization and our test and learn program and returning capital to shareholders. I'm incredibly proud of the team's efforts and focus over the last 24 months on executing our strategy.

謝謝你，阿爾貝托。我想在第 16 張投影片上發表一些結束語。我為團隊過去 24 個月來為執行策略所付出的努力和專注感到無比自豪。

As we look into 2023 and beyond, we remain on track to achieve our long-term goals of high grading our earnings quality by expanding our customer lifetime value. and providing a compelling annual total return to our shareholders of 15% to 20% free cash flow before growth per share and 7% to 9% annual dividend growth. Our platform is well positioned to deliver strong and predictable results and create significant shareholder value as the leading essential home services provider. I look forward to updating you on our progress along the way.

展望 2023 年及以後，我們仍有望實現我們的長期目標，即透過擴大客戶終身價值來提高獲利品質。並為我們的股東提供令人信服的年度總回報，即每股成長前 15% 至 20% 的自由現金流和 7% 至 9% 的年度股息成長。作為領先的基本家庭服務提供者，我們的平台具有提供強勁且可預測的業績並創造重大股東價值的優勢。我期待著向您通報我們在這過程中所取得的進展。

So with that, I want to thank you for your time and interest in NRG. Katherine, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

因此，我要感謝您對 NRG 的時間和關注。凱瑟琳，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Mauricio and team, pleasure to speak here. I hope the parade made things okay this morning.

毛里西奧和他的團隊很高興在這裡發言。我希望今天早上的遊行能夠順利。

Well, it disrupted traffic a little bit, but there is nothing like a great celebration after that win.

好吧，這確實對交通造成了一點影響，但沒有什麼比勝利之後的隆重慶祝更令人高興的了。

Absolutely, absolutely. Well, hey, listen, I just wanted to start off strategically here. We've been at it for a little bit here in the transformation, power prices remained relatively higher. How do you think about the state of the generation portfolio overall, how are you thinking about and evolving your decision tree on that? Obviously, we saw a story here in the quarter. But even beyond that, how are you seeing things, whether that's tied to or driven by IRA or otherwise here in terms of optimizing your generation portfolio?

絕對，絕對。好吧，嘿，聽著，我只是想從戰略上開始。我們在轉型方面已經做了一段時間了，電價仍然相對較高。您如何看待整個發電組合的狀況，您是如何思考和改進您的決策樹的？顯然，我們在本季看到了一個故事。但除此之外，您如何看待此事，這是否與 IRA 相關或受其驅動，或者在優化您的發電組合方面是否以其他方式驅動？

Thank you, Julien. Well, so let me take a little bit of a step back because obviously, you need to look at the generation portfolio in light of our integrated retail platform, right? I mean we have said that the goal of the generation portfolio now is to help better supply and serve our customer needs.

謝謝你，朱利安。好吧，那麼讓我稍微退一步來說，因為顯然，你需要根據我們的綜合零售平台來審視發電組合，對嗎？我的意思是我們已經說過，現在發電組合的目標是幫助更好地供應和滿足客戶需求。

So when I think about our generation portfolio, I think about our overall supply strategy, and that is 1 where we have decided to diversify our supply, to have some internal generation, to have third-party PPAs and obviously, market purchases. All of those 3 things make our supply strategy.

因此，當我考慮我們的發電組合時，我會考慮我們的整體供應策略，那就是我們決定實現供應多樣化，包括進行一些內部發電、進行第三方 PPA，當然還有市場採購。這三件事構成了我們的供應策略。

Now with respect to the generation portfolio, as you mentioned, higher power prices have led us to basically self-insure to have greater reliability because the value of each megawatt is much higher today than it was just 10 months ago with higher power prices and higher gas prices. So that's why you're going to see an increase in our maintenance capital because we want to make sure that we have greater reliability on our fleet.

現在關於發電組合，正如您所提到的，更高的電價使我們基本上自我保證更高的可靠性，因為今天每兆瓦的價值比10個月前高得多，當時電價和天然氣價格都更高。這就是為什麼你會看到我們的維護資本增加，因為我們希望確保我們的車隊具有更高的可靠性。

Obviously, we're always optimizing our supply. And right now, the value that it provides for our integrated platform is very high. But if there is -- there's always an opportunity to optimize that generation portfolio depending on market conditions and the opportunities that we see in the market.

顯然，我們一直在優化我們的供應。而且現在它為我們的整合平台提供的價值非常高。但如果有的話——總是有機會根據市場條件和我們在市場上看到的機會來優化發電組合。

Got it. All right. Fair enough. I'll leave it there. Let me dive if I can to the other side of this equation, and that is just the guidance and sort of the cadence of the guidance. Great. Obviously, the implied fourth quarter is reasonably elevated. And certainly, that's despite some of the ongoing pressure points that we saw in the third quarter.

知道了。好的。很公平。我就把它留在那裡。如果可以的話，讓我深入探討這個等式的另一邊，那隻是指導以及指導的節奏。偉大的。顯然，隱含的第四季資料合理偏高。可以肯定的是，儘管我們在第三季看到了一些持續的壓力點。

Can you talk about what that implies to the cadence of results into '23 here? How do you think about the first half? How do you think about third quarter going forward, given the sort of evolution in your business model? Should third quarter into the future be perhaps a little bit more depressed relatively speaking. Can you just elaborate on what the implications are? Maybe that's an Alberto question here.

您能談談這對 23 年的結果節奏意味著什麼嗎？您覺得上半場怎麼樣？考慮到您商業模式的演變，您如何看待第三季的前景？未來第三季可能會相對來說更加低迷一些。您能詳細解釋一下其意義嗎？這也許就是 Alberto 的問題。

Yes. Well, I'll turn to Alberto but let me just give a little framework. I mean I think the big takeaway, I hope for everybody is that in 2023, we go back to the guidance or the outlook that we provided during our Investor Day. Our EBITDA guidance and our free cash flow guidance goes back in line with what we provided to you last year. We're turning the page. And we're just excited about the opportunities that we have to continue growing our business, our core energy business, but importantly, adjacent products and services. With respect to the seasonality of earnings, I think you should expect us going back to where we were perhaps in 2021. But Alberto, can you provide additional insights here?

是的。好吧，我將轉向 Alberto，但讓我先給出一個小框架。我的意思是，我希望大家最大的收穫是，在 2023 年，我們能夠回到我們在投資者日期間提供的指導或展望。我們的 EBITDA 指引和自由現金流指引與我們去年提供給您的指引一致。我們正在翻開新的一頁。我們對繼續發展業務、核心能源業務以及相關產品和服務的機會感到非常興奮。關於收益的季節性，我認為您應該預期我們會回到 2021 年的水平。

Yes. I think more than looking at first half versus the second half, I would say that probably you will see these 2 critical quarters have been the second and the third. And so you will see probably more balance and more in line, as Mauricio said, with the past. And potentially even the fourth quarter that this year is higher than normal. So I would say, again, probably get back to 2021 profile is what we should expect.

是的。我認為，與比較上半年和下半年相比，我認為兩個關鍵季度可能是第二季和第三季。因此，正如毛里西奧所說，您可能會看到更平衡、更符合過去的情況。甚至今年第四季的表現也可能高於正常水準。因此，我想說，我們應該再次期待恢復到 2021 年的水平。

Okay. Excellent. And that's inclusive of some of these coal dynamics annualizing here in the first half and some of the outage dynamics still net-net-net '21 kind of profile?

好的。出色的。這其中包括上半年煤炭產量年化情況的部分動態，以及 21 年產量停駛的部分動態嗎？

Yes. I mean if you think about some of these coal supply issues, we were very transparent last year when we introduced them. And the team has done a tremendous job in mitigating these core supply chain issues, particularly in Texas, I mean we continue to have some things in the East, and team is just working through that.

是的。我的意思是，如果你想想這些煤炭供應問題，我們去年提出這些問題時是非常透明的。團隊在緩解這些核心供應鏈問題方面做出了巨大貢獻，特別是在德克薩斯州，我的意思是我們在東部仍存在一些問題，團隊正在努力解決這些問題。

But as I mentioned to all of you when we introduced these are temporary. The coal supply chain was significantly stretched because of the very rapid increase in natural gas prices. And I also said with time both coal suppliers and railroad providers scale off again their operations, and that's what we're seeing in our -- with our key suppliers.

但正如我在介紹時向大家提到的，這些都是暫時的。由於天然氣價格快速上漲，煤炭供應鏈嚴重緊張。我還說過，隨著時間的推移，煤炭供應商和鐵路供應商都會再次縮減營運規模，這就是我們在我們的主要供應商身上看到的情況。

Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim.

下一個問題來自古根漢的 Shar Pourreza。

It's actually James for Shar. Congrats on update, and thanks for taking the question. So I guess just starting with the '23 capital allocation plan, what are the trigger points of the time line expectations for the balance of the uncommitted capital? Are you potentially looking at more growth as we get through the year? Or is this just simply a function of waiting to see how the business performs through the first half?

實際上是 James 取代 Shar。祝賀更新，感謝您提出這個問題。因此，我想，從 23 年資本配置計畫開始，未承諾資本餘額的時間軸預期觸發點是什麼？您是否有可能在今年實現更多的成長？或者這只是簡單地等待觀察上半年業務的表現？

Well, yes, so 2 things. The first 1 is, as I committed to all of you, this year, we're actually announcing both our earnings guidance as well as our capital allocation. If you remember in the past, we used to provide the capital allocation in the fourth quarter earnings call. So the first thing is we're now providing these to much earlier than in the past.

嗯，是的，有兩件事。首先，正如我向大家承諾的那樣，今年我們實際上既公佈了盈利預期，也公佈了資本配置。如果您還記得的話，我們過去常常在第四季財報電話會議上提供資本配置。因此，首先，我們現在比過去更早提供這些服務。

The second thing is always -- our capital allocation, we try to -- the cadence happens with the cadence on when we generate cash, and this is not going to be any different. But as I said on my prepared remarks, the additional excess cash that we have available for allocation will be allocated throughout the year based on the highest return opportunity that we have. 2023, we start executing on our plan. We're evaluating opportunities. But if these opportunities don't yield a highest return compared to a share buyback, then we will allocate that to share buybacks. Just that simple.

第二件事始終是──我們的資本配置，我們試著──節奏與我們產生現金的節奏一致，這次也不會有什麼不同。但正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們可供分配的額外剩餘現金將根據我們擁有的最高回報機會在全年進行分配。 2023年，我們開始執行我們的計劃。我們正在評估機會。但如果這些機會與股票回購相比沒有產生最高的回報，那麼我們將把它分配給股票回購。就這麼簡單。

Okay. And then I guess kind of a similar question on the growth CapEx. How should we think about the timing and shape of any EBITDA accretion as you ramp up that spend? Is it something that we get more color on in steps as we roll for the coming quarters or just any color there?

好的。然後我想問一下關於成長資本支出的類似問題。當您增加支出時，我們應該如何考慮 EBITDA 成長的時間和形式？在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們是否會逐步獲得更多的顏色，還是只是任何顏色？

Yes. Well, I mean, remember that as we execute on our plan, we always have 3 options, right? We either build them or grow organically, we partner or we buy them, we acquire something. So in the build or organic growth, there is always a lag between when you make the investment and when you receive some of those earnings.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，請記住，當我們執行計劃時，我們總是有 3 個選擇，對嗎？我們要么自己建造它們，要么有機發展；要么合作，要么購買它們，要么獲得一些東西。因此，在建造或有機成長過程中，您進行投資和獲得部分收益之間總是存在一個滯後。

And in the -- similar to the partner, and I would say the acquisition, that really accelerates earnings immediately, right? So we're right now evaluating options and our both our business model and our go to market. The one thing that I will say is, as I think about the growth, there are some areas that -- well, first of all, it's a very narrow scope and I provided that scope in the slide that I presented to you today.

而且，類似於合作夥伴，我想說收購確實可以立即加速獲利，對嗎？因此，我們現在正在評估選擇方案以及我們的商業模式和市場走向。我要說的一件事是，當我考慮成長時，有一些領域——首先，這是一個非常狹窄的範圍，我在今天向你們展示的幻燈片中提供了這個範圍。

The second thing is there are some areas where we know that we're not going to do it, that the business model is such that we will partner, for example, Home Solar. We're not going to go into the entire value chain of Home Solar. We are going to partner. We have a lot of lessons learned here, and I have been very clear about that. So the pace of which the earnings are going to come in, it is really going to be dictated by how do we execute our strategy and we go to market. So it will be provided to you in the coming quarters as we start executing.

第二件事是，我們知道在某些領域我們不會這樣做，這些商業模式是我們將與合作夥伴合作，例如家庭太陽能。我們不會深入家用太陽能的整個價值鏈。我們將要合作。我們在這裡學到了很多教訓，我對此非常清楚。因此，獲利成長的速度實際上取決於我們如何執行我們的策略以及如何進入市場。因此，當我們開始執行時，我們將在接下來的幾個季度內提供給您。

Our next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So first, on the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act. So I see that there's a $45 million increase in cash taxes in your '23 free cash flow guidance. So -- and I know that we're still waiting for the IRS to provide some more clarity on cash taxes. But can you talk in general how you see it over the next couple of years?

首先，關於 IRA，即《通貨膨脹削減法案》。因此，我看到您的 23 年自由現金流指引中的現金稅增加了 4500 萬美元。所以——我知道我們仍在等待美國國稅局對現金稅提供更多澄清。但您能大致談談您對未來幾年的看法嗎？

Angie, I'll pass it to Alberto.

安吉，我會把它傳給阿爾貝托。

Yes. First of all, Angie, let me say that the increase in the taxes -- the tax payment that you see for 2023 are really due to 2 factors. One, we are forecasting a higher net income for the year and therefore, higher federal and state taxes. And the other piece is we got a refund for the BE on the DT side in 2022, that will not happen in 2023. And therefore, they are more or less half and half that explained increase year-over-year.

是的。首先，安吉，我要說的是，稅收的增加——你看到的 2023 年的稅收實際上是由於兩個因素造成的。首先，我們預測今年的淨收入將會更高，因此聯邦稅和州稅也會更高。另一件事是，我們在 2022 年獲得了 DT 方面的 BE 退款，但這在 2023 年不會發生。

We have -- from the IRA, we have factored in our forecast the impact of the 1% taxes on share buybacks. However, there is no impact for the higher -- for the minimum tax because at this moment, we don't have any indication that the payment based on 2023 net income will be done in 2023. And so when we have more information regarding when this payment, if any, is due, then we will update you.

我們從 IRA 得知，我們已經將 1% 的稅收對股票回購的影響納入了我們的預測中。但是，這對較高稅率沒有影響——因為目前，我們沒有任何跡象表明基於 2023 年淨收入的付款將在 2023 年完成。

In general, I would say, as we have said in the past that it's very difficult to do forecasting based on the level of information that we have. But so far, all the indication is for relatively modest impact and also is a temporary impact that will recover after a few years. As soon as we get more details, we will be more precise.

總的來說，正如我們過去所說的那樣，基於我們掌握的資訊水平進行預測非常困難。但到目前為止，所有跡像都顯示影響相對較小，而且是暫時的，幾年後就會恢復。一旦我們獲得更多細節，我們將會更加精確。

Okay. And then separately, also related to the same legislation. So I'm assuming that you are seeing some pickup in renewable power growth, especially in Texas. And I'm just wondering if that means that you should soon announce some additional PPAs again, given that the availability of specialty solar assets should increase in Texas.

好的。然後分別地，也涉及同一立法。因此我假設你會看到再生能源成長有所回升，特別是在德州。我只是想知道，這是否意味著您應該很快就會再次宣布一些額外的 PPA，因為德克薩斯州的專業太陽能資產的可用性應該會增加。

Sure. I'll have Rob answer to that, Angie.

當然。我會讓羅布回答這個問題，安吉。

When you think about the IRA, you're spot on, right? It provides clarity to the renewable developers. We are in the market all the time, right? So it's not -- we've been kind of at this for a while. So there's a couple of factors in here that we think about. One is availability for them to get their panels on the ground and get them installed. It's the developers in the pipeline that they're kind of working through.

當您想到愛爾蘭共和軍 (IRA) 時，您就猜對了，對嗎？它為再生能源開發商提供了清晰的認識。我們一直都在市場上，對嗎？所以事實並非如此——我們已經這樣做了一段時間了。這裡我們考慮了幾個因素。一是他們可以將太陽能電池板運送到地面並進行安裝。他們正在與處於開發過程中的開發人員合作。

And then the IRA provides them some clarity around their financing. So what I would expect -- I haven't seen it yet, but I would expect that some of this clarity starts coming into more certainty around offers into us. And as opportunities show up, will lock those up as they make sense for our portfolio. But you're right, the IRA should push solar, wind and battery development across all markets in the U.S.

然後 IRA 會向他們提供有關融資方面的一些明確資訊。所以我所期望的是——我還沒有看到，但我希望在向我們提供報價時，這種清晰度會開始變得更加確定。當機會出現時，只要它們對我們的投資組合有意義，我們就會鎖定它們。但你說得對，IRA 應該推動美國所有市場的太陽能、風能和電池發展。

Yes. And particularly in Texas, when you look at the plan that ERCOT provides and what we're tracking, I mean, most of the new generation is really renewable energy. So this should help and accelerate. We have this capability pretty well. It's a well-oiled machine. We have been executing before there was a slowdown, and our expectation is going to pick up, and we have great visibility as to when that happens and also the economics around it.

是的。特別是在德克薩斯州，當你查看 ERCOT 提供的計劃和我們正在追蹤的情況時，你會發現大多數新一代能源實際上都是可再生能源。所以這應該會有所幫助並加速。我們具備相當強的這種能力。這是一台運作良好的機器。我們在經濟放緩之前就已經開始執行，我們預期經濟將會回升，而且我們對這種情況何時發生以及周圍的經濟狀況有很好的預見性。

Okay. And my last question is the maintenance expense, maintenance CapEx in 2023. So I understand that you are spending more money in light of the higher level of power prices. But is this a level that we should actually expect going forward? Is this just a one-off year with like some major maintenance, something that was either pulled forward or catch up from previous years?

好的。我的最後一個問題是維護費用，即 2023 年的維護資本支出。但這是我們未來真正該期待的水平嗎？今年只是一次性的重大維護年，是提前進行還是追趕前幾年的維護？

Well, I mean, I'll ask Alberto to address some of it. I mean, my take -- remember, 2023 has 2 big components, right? I mean the first one is the money that goes into the Unit 8 at WA Parish. And then the second one, obviously, is the increase in maintenance because we want ourself insured given that every megawatt is more valuable with higher power prices. I mean, that's something that the market is going to dictate.

嗯，我的意思是，我會請 Alberto 解決其中的一些問題。我的意思是，我的看法是——記住，2023 年有兩個重要組成部分，對吧？我的意思是，第一筆錢是投入西澳教區第 8 單元的錢。然後第二個顯然是維護費用的增加，因為我們希望自己得到保險，因為隨著電價的提高，每兆瓦的價值都更高。我的意思是，這是市場將要決定的事情。

What I will tell you is that I am incredibly proud of the team that is so near on (technical difficulty) our generation fleet during years where gas prices were very low, they tightened the belt. They adjusted the maintenance. It was the right decision because not every megawatt was as valuable as it is today. we very quickly pivoted to that. And as I mentioned, we put some capital at work before the summer that yielded really good results. And we're going to continue to do that. So Alberto, I don't know if there's anything else you want.

我要告訴你們的是，我為我們的團隊感到無比自豪，在天然氣價格非常低的年份，他們勒緊褲腰帶，解決了我們的發電難題（技術難題）。他們調整了維護。這是正確的決定，因為並非每一兆瓦都像今天一樣有價值。我們很快就轉向了這一點。正如我所提到的，我們在夏季之前投入了一些資金，並取得了非常好的結果。我們將繼續這樣做。那麼 Alberto，我不知道您是否還有什麼其他要求。

Yes. I just would like to point you to in the appendix, there is a page in which we highlight the impact on our maintenance CapEx coming in 2022 from Limestone and Parish and also for 2023. Long story short, when you eliminate the impact of these specific CapEx that we spend. You will see that there is around $40 million to $50 million increase in the maintenance CapEx, and this is really due to the fact as Mauricio was mentioning that given the current prices, we think that it is appropriate to increase the reliability of our fleet to basically catch all the opportunity that the current price environment is offering to us.

是的。我只是想指出附錄中有一頁，其中我們重點介紹了 2022 年 Limestone 和 Parish 對我們維護資本支出的影響以及 2023 年的影響。您會發現維護資本支出增加了約 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元，這實際上是因為正如 Mauricio 提到的那樣，考慮到當前價格，我們認為提高我們機隊的可靠性是合適的，這樣才能基本上抓住當前價格環境為我們提供的所有機會。

And our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邁克爾·拉皮德斯。

Congrats on a good quarter. I'm looking at Slide 14. And I just want to make sure I understand some of this and a little bit of this may be more nuanced. So the growth plan, the $220 million, can you -- what asset -- is that for 1 big asset? Or is it for lots of little things?

恭喜本季取得良好業績。我正在看幻燈片 14。那麼成長計劃，2.2 億美元，你能——什麼資產——那是 1 項大資產嗎？還是為了很多小事？

No. It is a -- I mean this is really to support our test and learn. So we have identified a number of opportunities, and the scope of those opportunities are actually on Slide 7, Michael. So when you look at whether it is solar, storage, electric vehicles, energy management, protection, security. I mean, the scope is really around essential services, and this is what we have been able to identify today. Obviously, we're working through the execution of our plan, and we will provide updates as we -- throughout the year.

不。因此，我們已經確定了許多機會，這些機會的範圍實際上就在第 7 張投影片上，Michael。因此，當你查看它是否是太陽能、儲能、電動車、能源管理、保護、安全。我的意思是，範圍確實圍繞著基本服務，而這就是我們今天所能確定的。顯然，我們正在努力執行我們的計劃，並將在全年提供最新資訊。

So let me just -- and this might be 1 for Alberto. So the $220 million in the growth plan and the $111 million and the other investments. Are these all -- like when I look through the 3 statements at this time next year, are they going to flow through CapEx or are they going to flow through cash from operating activities, meaning is it working capital? Or do some of these actually weigh on EBITDA until they start generating EBITDA? Like your guidance for EBITDA would be higher if you weren't -- if you weren't doing the spin.

所以讓我 — — 這可能是 Alberto 的 1。因此，成長計畫中的投資為 2.2 億美元，其他投資為 1.11 億美元。這些都是——就像當我明年這個時候查看這 3 條報表時，它們會流入資本支出還是會流入經營活動現金，這意味著它是營運資本嗎？或者其中一些實際上會對 EBITDA 造成壓力直到它們開始產生 EBITDA 嗎？就像如果您不進行旋轉，您對 EBITDA 的指導就會更高。

No. Regarding -- okay, regarding the other investment, these do not impact EBITDA, they are outside EBITDA. When you look at the growth plans there is a series of initiatives, and we will update you about what is going to EBITDA or not. But for the moment, it's still -- as Mauricio said, it's a series of different initiatives and depending on which one we will prioritize, it will have more CapEx impact or not.

不。當您查看成長計畫時，您會發現一系列舉措，我們將向您通報哪些舉措將計入 EBITDA。但就目前而言，正如毛里西奧所說，這仍然是一系列不同的舉措，並且取決於我們優先考慮哪一個，它是否會對資本支出產生更大的影響。

Meaning some of the -- all right, so the $111 million is all based -- about $111 million is all capitalized. And the $220 million, some of it is capitalized and some of it is flowing through G&A or O&M? And therefore, I'm just trying to make sure because -- like I'm trying to think about recurring versus nonrecurring impacts on EBITDA.

意思是其中一些 — — 好吧，1.11 億美元全部基於 — — 大約 1.11 億美元全部資本化。這 2.2 億美元，一部分是資本化的，一部分是透過 G&A 或 O&M 流動的嗎？因此，我只是想確保——就像我試圖思考對 EBITDA 的經常性影響和非經常性影響一樣。

That is a very good question. And what you said is correct. The $111 million, they are not impacting EBITDA, the $220 million. There are some initiatives that could have an impact on OpEx and others that have an impact on CapEx, and we will qualify that in the next quarter.

這是一個非常好的問題。你說的是正確的。 1.11 億美元不會影響 EBITDA，即 2.2 億美元。有些舉措可能會對營運支出產生影響，有些舉措可能會對資本支出產生影響，我們將在下個季度對此進行確認。

And just to put a finer point here, Michael. I mean the $220 million, and I want to highlight what could impact, right? But as we are in the process of executing and depending on how do we finalize the go-to-market will have an impact on whether it goes to CapEx and OpEx. So that's, as they say, TBD, to be determined, Michael. But we will provide that transparency as we start executing on the plan.

我只是想在這裡強調一點，麥可。我指的是 2.2 億美元，我想強調一下可能會產生什麼影響，對嗎？但由於我們正處於執行過程中，如何最終確定上市方式將對其是否轉向資本支出和營運支出產生影響。所以，正如他們所說，這是有待確定的，邁克爾。但我們在開始執行計劃時將提供這種透明度。

We have a question from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

我們收到了摩根士丹利的戴維·阿卡羅的一個問題。

Wondering if you could talk a little bit to customer growth trends that you're seeing and any churn in the business? Are you still seeing kind of a flight to safety in this backdrop and this high commodity price backdrop. Noticed that there was a slight decline in the total customer count versus the prior quarter. So I'm curious to any information there.

想知道您是否可以談談您所看到的客戶成長趨勢以及業務流失？在這種背景和大宗商品價格高企的背景下，您是否仍看到一種避險情緒？注意到與上一季相比，客戶總數略有下降。所以我對那裡的任何信息都很好奇。

Sure. Elizabeth?

當然。伊莉莎白？

Yes. Thanks for the question, David. We were really pleased with our performance, the team and the engine during a really volatile third quarter. We did perform, continue to perform in third quarter as we had year-to-date better than our budget. You may recall from prior discussions, we do generally see customer attrition from large M&A, which was DE, which was very large as well as from small book acquisitions, which we have done a handful of those year-to-date.

是的。謝謝你的提問，大衛。在動盪的第三季度，我們對我們的表現、團隊和引擎感到非常滿意。我們的表現確實不錯，第三季的表現也持續保持良好，年初至今的業績表現超出了我們的預算。您可能還記得先前的討論，我們通常會看到來自大型併購（DE）的客戶流失，規模非常大，以及小型圖書收購，今年迄今為止我們已經完成了其中的一些。

But the good news is we're performing better than expected on both DE and the customer books. From a sales engine perspective, we are -- we have a very strong engine overperformance in the quarter, occurred in both our face-to-face and our digital channels. And cross-serve also performed very well during the quarter, better than budget.

但好消息是我們在 DE 和客戶帳簿上的表現都比預期好。從銷售引擎的角度來看，本季我們的引擎表現非常強勁，無論是在面對面銷售管道還是在數位管道。且跨服務在本季也表現良好，優於預算。

And from a retention perspective, we also are seeing really strong performance given the backdrop of very high prices from both the cost increases associated with the power to fulfill for them as well as the higher usage during some of the weather that we experience. So really pleased with the attrition during the quarter and looking forward to continuing to deliver for you guys.

從保留的角度來看，我們也看到了非常強勁的表現，因為價格非常高，既包括與他們履行職責相關的成本增加，也包括我們遇到的某些天氣條件下使用率的增加。所以對於本季的員工流失情況我真的很高興，並期待繼續為你們提供服務。

Yes. And just -- I mean, the team does a fantastic job on balancing customer account and margin. And that's what we do every day. We have tremendous insights from our customers. And as Elizabeth said, both our retention numbers and our bad debt numbers are pretty well in line, very robust. And customer count is just a result of a very intentional strategy around balancing customer account and retail margins. So I'm very pleased with the team.

是的。而且——我的意思是，該團隊在平衡客戶帳戶和利潤方面做得非常出色。這正是我們每天所做的事情。我們從客戶那裡獲得了豐富的見解。正如伊莉莎白所說，我們的留存數字和壞帳數字都非常穩定，非常強勁。而客戶數量只是平衡客戶帳戶和零售利潤的刻意策略的結果。所以我對這個團隊非常滿意。

Got it. Great. That's helpful. And then I was wondering if -- maybe 2 quicker ones, but does the 2023 outlook include business interruption insurance proceeds coming in? Wondering how much of that might be in the guidance? And then maybe just a little more higher level, Mauricio, is there still more to do in terms of portfolio and real estate optimization with where the business currently stands? Is that something you'll be looking at into 2023 as well?

知道了。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我想知道 - 可能有 2 個更快的問題，但 2023 年的展望是否包括營業中斷保險收益？想知道其中有多少內容包含在指導中？然後也許再從更高層次講，毛里西奧，就目前的業務狀況而言，在投資組合和房地產優化方面是否還有更多工作要做？您是否也會在 2023 年考慮這個問題？

Sure, Alberto?

當然可以，阿爾貝托？

Yes. Regarding the business insurance proceeds, I can confirm what we said in the prior call and basically the negative impact of Parish 8 in the first half of 2023 will be absorbed by the insurance proceeds as we have factored in our forecast.

是的。關於商業保險收益，我可以確認我們在上次電話會議中所說的內容，基本上，正如我們在預測中考慮到的那樣，2023 年上半年第 8 教區的負面影響將被保險收益吸收。

And with respect to the portfolio optimization, again, I mean, this is something that we're looking on a continuous basis. We haven't stopped. I mean the Astoria sale in Watson is an example of what we're doing.

關於投資組合優化，我的意思是，這是我們正在持續關注的事情。我們還沒有停下來。我的意思是，沃森的阿斯托利亞銷售就是我們所做工作的一個例子。

A couple of quarters ago, I said that we are going to move into evaluating brownfield development, both in our Midwest fleet as well as in Texas. The team has been working on looking at these opportunities. And what I will tell you is also we're looking at potential partnering opportunities because we want to make sure that we -- the capital that we use is the right structure. I don't want to create friction in the system if we don't have to.

幾個季度前，我說我們將開始評估棕地開發，包括我們中西部車隊以及德克薩斯州的車隊。團隊一直在努力尋找這些機會。我要告訴你們的是，我們也在尋找潛在的合作機會，因為我們想確保我們使用的資本結構正確。如果沒有必要的話，我不想在系統中製造摩擦。

So both in terms of brownfield opportunities and in terms of partnering opportunities, we have been very busy, and I hope to give you a more fulsome update in the coming quarters.

因此，無論是在棕地機會方面還是在合作機會方面，我們都非常忙碌，我希望在接下來的幾個季度為您提供更全面的更新。

And our final question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的史蒂夫·弗萊什曼。

So just for the 2022 guidance, the -- I think your Texas segment is down $75 million maybe from the initial guide. How much of that is attributed to the Parish limestone outages net of any money you're getting back this year?

因此，僅就 2022 年指引而言，我認為您的德州分部可能比最初的指引下降了 7,500 萬美元。其中有多少是由於教區石灰石停產造成的，扣除今年您收回的資金後是多少？

Steve, I'll turn it to Alberto.

史蒂夫，我將把話題轉給阿爾貝托。

Yes. It's almost entirely the full amount that we highlighted in $220 million, Steve. So that's the main (inaudible). Okay?

是的。史蒂夫，這幾乎就是我們強調的全部金額 2.2 億美元。這就是主要的（聽不清楚）。好的？

Okay. And then the $175 million boost in East West other. Could you just explain what's driving that?

好的。然後是東西方其他領域的 1.75 億美元增幅。您能解釋一下造成這種情況的原因嗎？

Yes. Normally, Steve, we are very conservative when we plan our gas optimization activity this year, given the fact there has been a lot of volatility, the performance has been very good in that area. And also, obviously, we have benefited so from some higher margin from prices coming from our generation fleet in the East. But normally, you will see that if we do better in the East is driven by the gas.

是的。史蒂夫，通常情況下，我們在計劃今年的天然氣優化活動時非常保守，考慮到存在很大的波動性，該領域的表現非常好。而且顯然，我們從東部發電廠的價格更高的利潤中獲益。但通常情況下，你會看到，我們在東部做得更好是由於天然氣的推動。

Okay. And then just as we think about the '23 guidance, are you assuming that, that better optimization continues or that, that...

好的。然後，正如我們思考 23 條指導意見時一樣，您是否假設更好的優化會繼續下去，或者那...

Yes, we have more established.

是的，我們已經更加成熟。

Okay.

好的。

Yes. It's always -- I mean, we always use market as an indication to guide us in terms of the profitability of our portfolio, right? So if you look at the heat rates for 2023, we use market prices, market heat rates still inform our guidance.

是的。總是——我的意思是，我們總是以市場為指標來指導我們投資組合的獲利能力，對嗎？因此，如果您查看 2023 年的熱價，我們使用市場價格，市場熱價仍然為我們提供指導。

Okay. And then just the $400 million -- $397 million of buyback, you intend to complete that fully in the market by year-end, not when you're going to do an ASR or something or?

好的。然後僅僅是 4 億美元到 3.97 億美元的回購，您打算在年底前在市場上完全完成，而不是在您要做 ASR 或類似的事情時完成，還是？

I mean our intention is to complete towards the end of the year, and that's basically our plan right now.

我的意思是我們的目標是在年底前完成，這基本上就是我們目前的計劃。

Okay. And then on ERCOT market structure, I mean it's kind of gotten quiet, but I think there's a lot about to happen. So just to the degree that they put in some kind of dispatchable market, separate market. How are you thinking about how that impacts your portfolio and how you manage that through the retail side?

好的。然後關於 ERCOT 市場結構，我的意思是它有點變得安靜了，但我認為很多事情即將發生。因此，他們只是在某種程度上建立了某種可調度的市場，即獨立的市場。您認為這會對您的投資組合產生什麼影響，以及您如何透過零售方面來管理它？

Well, I mean, a couple of things. And I think you're absolutely right, Steve. It's going to get really busy, I think, middle of November, there is going to be a recommendation from ERCOT and the PUCT. We've been working with them alongside throughout this entire time. We provided our a number of initiatives. I know that they're evaluating. At the end of the day, I think that's also going to be informed by how the Texas Grid has operated. And as I said, I mean, we broke the load record 39x this summer. And not even once we went into EA1, emergency situation.

嗯，我的意思是，有幾件事。我認為你完全正確，史蒂夫。我認為，11 月中旬會變得非常繁忙，ERCOT 和 PUCT 將會提出建議。我們一直與他們合作。我們提出了多項措施。我知道他們正在評估。歸根結底，我認為這也將取決於德克薩斯州電網的運作。正如我所說的，今年夏天我們打破了 39 次負載記錄。我們甚至沒有進入過 EA1 緊急情況。

So I think the grid is, well, when I look at the pipeline, it's very robust with lots of new renewable generation. So enough to meet current demand and future demand. So I think that's going to inform some of it. At the end of the day, they end up with some sort of dispatchable product. we've been working really hard in terms of the brownfield opportunities on our own sites.

因此，我認為，當我查看管道時，電網非常強勁，擁有大量新的可再生能源。因此足以滿足當前的需求和未來的需求。所以我認為這將會提供一些資訊。最終，他們得到了某種可調度的產品。我們一直在努力尋找我們自己場地上的棕地開發機會。

And obviously, that will play really well for participants like us who have sites in good locations already connected to the grid. And I think that gives us a cost advantage that we intend to fully utilize and monetize.

顯然，這對我們這樣已經將網站連接到電網且位置良好的參與者來說，將大有裨益。我認為這為我們帶來了成本優勢，我們打算充分利用這一優勢並將其貨幣化。

And there is no further questions in the queue. I'd like to turn the call back to Mauricio Gutierrez, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我想請總裁兼執行長毛里西奧·古鐵雷斯 (Mauricio Gutierrez) 作最後發言。

Thank you, Katherine. Well, thank you all for your interest in NRG, and I look forward to continue updating you as we move to our next phase in the company. So thank you all for your attention.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。好吧，感謝大家對 NRG 的關注，我期待在公司進入下一階段時繼續向大家通報最新情況。感謝大家的關注。

And thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the call.

並感謝您參加今天的會議。通話到此結束。