NRG Energy Inc (NRG) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NRG Energy, Inc. First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Kevin Cole, Head of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 NRG Energy, Inc. 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人，財務和投資者關係主管凱文·科爾 (Kevin Cole)。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length and is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations & Webcasts.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 NRG Energy 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上的電話會議時長為 45 分鐘，將透過電話和網路廣播進行現場直播，網路廣播可以在我們網站 www.nrg.com 的投資者部分的演示和網路廣播下找到。

Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based upon assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law. In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

請注意，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們認為截至目前合理的假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們敦促大家回顧今天演示中的安全港以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。此外，我們將參考公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。

For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation.

有關我們的非公認會計原則財務指標以及與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節的信息，請參閱今天的演示文稿。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Larry Coben, NRG's Chair and Interim President and CEO.

現在，我將把電話轉給 NRG 主席兼臨時總裁兼執行長 Larry Coben 博士。

Thank you very much, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in NRG. I'm joined this morning also by Bruce Chung, our Chief Financial Officer. And we also have members of the management team on the call who are available to answer questions. Let's begin with the 3 key messages for today's presentation on Slide 4.

非常感謝你，凱文。大家早安，感謝您對 NRG 的興趣。今天早上我們的財務長 Bruce Chung 也加入了我的行列。我們還有管理團隊成員隨時待命，可以回答問題。讓我們從今天投影片 4 簡報的 3 個關鍵資訊開始。

First, our business performance exceeded expectations in the first quarter. I'm incredibly pleased with our strong start to the year and in reaffirming our 2024 financial guidance ranges. Second, electrification trends compounded by Gen AI data center growth forecast a signal of transformative rises in power demand. As a result, we expect competitive markets to realize outsized benefits driven by business-friendly environments, available resources and the ability to cite projects quickly.

一是第一季經營業績超出預期。我對今年的強勁開局以及重申 2024 年財務指導範圍感到非常滿意。其次，電氣化趨勢與人工智慧資料中心的成長相結合，預示著電力需求將出現變革性成長。因此，我們預計競爭市場將在商業友善的環境、可用資源和快速引用項目的能力的推動下實現巨大的效益。

Finally, NRG is well positioned to capitalize on tightened supply and demand in our core markets. Our technology-led consumer platform, our diversified generation portfolio, our leading business energy platform and a real estate site portfolio present a unique opportunity to create significant shareholder value. I'm going to give you visibility into this later in the presentation.

最後，NRG 處於有利地位，可以利用我們核心市場供需緊張的機會。我們以科技為主導的消費者平台、多元化的發電組合、領先的商業能源平台和房地產網站組合為創造顯著的股東價值提供了獨特的機會。我將在稍後的演示中讓您了解這一點。

Let's move to Slide 5 because I want to share again our value proposition, which may not be familiar to those of you who are new to NRG, and I understand there are several of you on this call. We serve nearly 8 million residential customers and operate the second largest C&I energy and natural gas retail business by volume in the United States.

讓我們轉到投影片 5，因為我想再次分享我們的價值主張，這對於剛接觸 NRG 的人來說可能不熟悉，而且我知道這次電話會議中有很多人參加。我們為近 800 萬住宅客戶提供服務，並經營美國第二大工商業能源和天然氣零售業務。

Our company sits at the intersection of energy and technology in the home and the grid. We generate significant excess cash well beyond our current business needs, resulting in the financial flexibility to grow earnings while returning significant capital to our shareholders and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

我們公司處於家庭和電網能源與技術的交叉點。我們產生的大量超額現金遠遠超出了我們當前的業務需求，從而具有增加收益的財務靈活性，同時向股東返還大量資本並保持強勁的資產負債表。

The strength of our business and financial outlook has us uniquely positioned to capitalize on what we believe to the beginning stages of an exceptional time for our industry. It's an exciting time for our company. We remain on track to achieve our 15% to 20% free cash flow before growth per share CAGR target, even as our rising stock price means buying shares at higher prices than projected a year ago.

我們的業務實力和財務前景使我們處於獨特的地位，可以充分利用我們所相信的行業特殊時期的開始階段。對我們公司來說，這是一個令人興奮的時刻。我們仍有望在每股複合年增長率目標之前實現 15% 至 20% 的自由現金流，儘管我們不斷上漲的股價意味著以高於一年前預期的價格購買股票。

Turning to Slide 6. In recent months, we've received numerous questions about the impacts of the forthcoming power demand growth super cycle on the industry and in NRG in particular. Today, I'd like to talk about what we are seeing. Bruce will then discuss the first quarter results later in the presentation.

轉向幻燈片 6。今天，我想談談我們所看到的。布魯斯將在稍後的演講中討論第一季的業績。

Starting with macro trends. We're seeing clear signs of a step change in the long-term fundamentals of power demand from multiple catalysts. This marks the departure from an extended period of stagnant power demand during which energy efficiency outpaced usage growth. For the first time in decades, and perhaps in my 40 years in this business, we are experiencing fundamental improvements driven by demand rather than commodity prices. We, along with every other forecasting expert I have read, are now expecting a step change in long-term power demand.

從宏觀趨勢入手。我們看到了多種催化劑的明顯跡象，顯示電力需求的長期基本面發生了階躍變化。這標誌著電力需求長期停滯的時期的結束，在此期間能源效率超過了使用成長。幾十年來，也許在我從事這個行業的 40 年裡，我們第一次經歷了由需求而不是商品價格驅動的根本性改善。我們和我讀過的所有其他預測專家一樣，現在預計長期電力需求將發生階梯變化。

This increase in demand is attributed to several factors, including electrification, manufacturing, onshoring, LNG, crypto, greater industrial loads and data center growth. Recent advancements in Gen AI are compounding and accelerating these factors, leading to the formation of the next power demand super cycle. At the same time, the U.S. power supply that is expected to accommodate this growth will increasingly depend on intermittent resources, which highlights a growing and unprecedented imbalance between dispatchable supply and demand.

需求的成長歸因於多種因素，包括電氣化、製造、在岸、液化天然氣、加密貨幣、更大的工業負載和資料中心的成長。人工智慧的最新進展正在加劇並加速這些因素，導致下一個電力需求超級週期的形成。同時，預計適應這種成長的美國電力供應將越來越依賴間歇性資源，凸顯了可調度供需之間日益嚴重且前所未有的不平衡。

To be clear, it takes only a fraction of what is being forecasted to not just into this super cycle. And this super cycle will require an all-of-the-above supply approach, including retaining existing generation assets, developing new generation, and approaching supply and demand differently through the adoption of technology by shifting large loads, residential VPP and other forms of demand and energy management. This is a transformative opportunity for our sector and for NRG.

需要明確的是，這只需要預測的一小部分就不會只是進入這個超級週期。這個超級週期將需要採取上述所有的供應方法，包括保留現有發電資產、開發新一代發電，以及透過採用技術、轉移大負載、住宅VPP和其他形式的需求，以不同的方式處理供需問題和能源管理。這對我們產業和 NRG 來說都是一個變革性的機會。

If you turn to Slide 7, you'll see why competitive markets such as those in which NRG operates are best positioned to realize outsized benefits of this large load growth. It's due to the competitive framework that offers speed-to-market, affordability and resource availability. We see Texas and portions of the Northeast as the most favorable markets.

如果您翻到投影片 7，您就會明白為什麼 NRG 所在的競爭市場最有能力實現這種負載大幅成長所帶來的巨大效益。這是由於競爭框架提供了上市速度、負擔能力和資源可用性。我們認為德州和東北部部分地區是最有利的市場。

Texas stands out as it is already a preferred destination for large loads including crypto, LNG and manufacturing onshoring, which all have experienced substantial growth in recent years and are exhibiting strong outlooks on the future. Texas benefits from its business-friendly practices, favorable regulatory environment, tax incentives and large land footprint, positioning it as a winner in the era of generative AI and other large load growth. Furthermore, coupled with our ability to cite projects years faster than in regulated markets and its proximity to main fiber channels, I expect Texas to continue to be a leader in load growth.

德州之所以脫穎而出，是因為它已經成為包括加密貨幣、液化天然氣和製造業在內的大宗貨物的首選目的地，這些貨物近年來都經歷了大幅增長，並且對未來表現出強勁的前景。德州受益於其商業友善做法、有利的監管環境、稅收優惠和廣闊的土地面積，使其成為生成式人工智慧和其他大負載成長時代的贏家。此外，再加上我們引用項目的速度比受監管市場快數年，而且靠近主要光纖通道，我預計德克薩斯州將繼續成為負載成長的領導者。

On Slide 8, I'd like to highlight 4 of the many key opportunities for value creation that exists across our platform. To leave no doubt, each of these opportunities represents upside to our June 2023 Investor Day growth plan, and it's not relying on potentially transitory subsidies or inflation reduction act funding.

在投影片 8 上，我想強調我們平台上存在的眾多創造價值的關鍵機會中的 4 個。毫無疑問，這些機會中的每一個都代表了我們 2023 年 6 月投資者日成長計畫的優勢，而且它不依賴潛在的臨時補貼或通膨削減法案資金。

First, we are the only company to have residential energy and smart technologies at scale with nearly 8 million customers. We're a trusted provider and have the unique capability to provide novel energy management through our smart home ecosystem, a capability that will be necessary and increase in value in a tightening market. Second, you may not be aware or fully cognizant of the opportunity that it represents, but we are the second largest business-to-business electricity and largest natural gas provider by volume in North America.

首先，我們是唯一一家擁有大規模住宅能源和智慧技術、擁有近 800 萬客戶的公司。我們是值得信賴的供應商，擁有透過智慧家庭生態系統提供新穎能源管理的獨特能力，這種能力在緊縮的市場中是必要的，價值會增加。其次，您可能沒有意識到或完全認識到它所代表的機會，但我們是北美第二大企業對企業電力和最大的天然氣供應商。

Beyond selling customers more of our products, we are a leader in premium services. We offer tailored energy management solutions that focus on optimizing and stabilizing energy costs. We're also able to commercially help our customers achieve their sustainability goals. These customers include many of America's largest industrial players and corporations as well as the hyperscalers.

除了向客戶銷售更多產品外，我們也是優質服務領域的領導者。我們提供量身訂製的能源管理解決方案，專注於優化和穩定能源成本。我們也能夠在商業上幫助我們的客戶實現他們的永續發展目標。這些客戶包括許多美國最大的工業參與者和企業以及超大規模企業。

Third, our Texas generation fleet mix is a diverse set of assets that enable us to deliver stable supply costs while maintaining insurance for volatility through higher cost units that are not economical in the current year. These uneconomic units are primarily higher heat rate natural gas assets and in recent low price times may have run for only a few peak hours per year.

第三，我們的德州發電機隊組合是一套多元化的資產，使我們能夠提供穩定的供應成本，同時透過今年不經濟的較高成本單位維持波動性保險。這些不經濟的機組主要是熱耗率較高的天然氣資產，在最近的低價時期，每年可能只運行幾個高峰時段。

We primarily use our generation fleet to supply our residential retail portfolio with customer fixed price contracts typically lasting a year or 2. As a result, our generation fleet is mostly open 18 to 24 months out. This creates a significant opportunity to swiftly capitalize on rising power prices and rising demand. As the value of our product increases and equally importantly, units that have historically operated only a few hours annually could now see increasing run times and, of course, profitability.

我們主要利用我們的發電機群為我們的住宅零售投資組合提供通常持續一年或兩年的客戶固定價格合約。這為迅速利用不斷上漲的電價和不斷增長的需求創造了重要機會。隨著我們產品價值的增加，同樣重要的是，過去每年僅運行幾個小時的設備現在可以看到運行時間的增加，當然還有盈利能力。

Lastly, our real estate portfolio has several potential development sites for colocation of large loads or power plants. We own 21 sites with 21,000 acres at retired and existing generation facilities that generally have existing or access to grid interconnection. They are in competitive markets and given the extreme focus on project speed, potentially provide another avenue of value creation. Let's try to unpack each of these a bit.

最後，我們的房地產投資組合有幾個潛在的開發地點，可用於大型負載或發電廠的託管。我們在退役和現有發電設施中擁有 21 個場地，佔地 21,000 英畝，這些設施通常具有現有或連接到電網互連的能力。它們處於競爭激烈的市場中，並且極度注重專案速度，有可能提供另一種價值創造途徑。讓我們試著逐一解開這些內容。

Turning to Slide 9. We operate 1 of the leading business-to-business power and natural gas platforms in North America. We serve nearly 100 terawatt hours of electricity and almost 1.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually.

轉向幻燈片 9。我們每年提供近 100 太瓦時的電力和近 1.8 兆立方英尺的天然氣。

As demand growth scales, we anticipate increasing electric and natural gas sales volumes. Through our business platform, we help large load customers accomplish their intended goals through tailored plans, including stabilizing their energy costs, delivering specific attributes for their sustainability commitments and optimizing their usage through services such as demand response. At heart, these customers are looking for a partner to help them navigate complicated energy markets while minimizing their risk.

隨著需求的成長，我們預計電力和天然氣銷售將會增加。透過我們的業務平台，我們幫助大負荷客戶透過客製化計畫實現其預期目標，包括穩定其能源成本、為其永續發展承諾提供特定屬性以及透過需求響應等服務優化其使用。從本質上講，這些客戶正在尋找合作夥伴來幫助他們駕馭複雜的能源市場，同時最大限度地降低風險。

We stand ready to provide the services they need as a large market participant with a best-in-class commercial operations platform and a track record of high-quality customer experiences. With respect to data centers. It is still the early days, but we are seeing signs that they are planning to ramp up capacity in the current years. As an anecdotal example, a data center customer approached us about increasing their capacity by 3x at an existing facility in the next 36 months. We are seeing and experiencing demand growth in real time.

我們隨時準備為他們提供作為大型市場參與者所需的服務，並擁有一流的商業營運平台和高品質的客戶體驗記錄。關於數據中心。現在還處於早期階段，但我們看到有跡象表明他們計劃在今年提高產能。舉一個有趣的例子，一位資料中心客戶向我們尋求協助，希望在未來 36 個月內將現有設施的容量提高 3 倍。我們即時看到並經歷需求成長。

Moving to Slide 10. Our Texas generation fleet is diverse in technology, age and merit order. We operate 8.5 gigawatts of generation capacity in Texas, supplemented by 1.6 gigawatts of long-term power purchase agreements. We also have 1.5 gigawatts of shovel-ready brownfield projects in development. This strategic diversification across technologies, fuel types and merit orders ensures near-term stability and positions us to capitalize on opportunities from medium- to long-term margin expansion driven by higher power prices.

轉到投影片 10。我們在德州營運 8.5 吉瓦的發電容量，並輔以 1.6 吉瓦的長期購電協議。我們還有 1.5 吉瓦的棕地計畫正在開發中。這種跨技術、燃料類型和績效訂單的策略多元化確保了短期穩定性，並使我們能夠利用電價上漲推動的中長期利潤擴張的機會。

On the right hand of the slide, we provide our Texas generation open growth margin sensitivity to changes in around-the-clock power price scenarios. This sensitivity provides insight into our generation portfolio's earnings power as economic generation increases in value and currently, uneconomic generation becomes not only economic but very profitable.

在投影片的右側，我們提供了德州發電開放成長利潤對全天候電價情境變化的敏感度。隨著經濟發電價值的增加，這種敏感性使我們能夠深入了解發電組合的獲利能力，目前，不經濟發電不僅變得經濟，而且非常有利可圖。

On Slide 11 -- provide a more detailed look at our Texas generation gross margin sensitivity. This analysis focuses on changes in power prices, assuming flat natural gas pricing and normal weather. On the left side of the slide, we have included Texas as around-the-clock and peak pricing forwards for July 2023 and April 2024, which represents the assumed pricing in our 2024 guidance and are compared to today's forward.

在投影片 11 上 - 更詳細地了解我們德州發電毛利率的敏感度。本分析重點在於電價變化，假設天然氣價格持平且天氣正常。在幻燈片左側，我們將德克薩斯州納入2023 年7 月和2024 年4 月的全天候和峰值定價遠期，這代表了我們2024 年指導中的假設定價，並與今天的遠期定價進行了比較。

As you can see, ERCOT forward pricing has moved up significantly. The only explanation for this is that the market is starting to reflect increased power demand from large load growth. Also noteworthy is that the curve is no longer backward dated, suggesting a view and a long-term view of sustained tightness in the Texas power market. Building upon last quarter's additional modeling disclosure. On the right side of the slide, we have provided the necessary components to directionally model the gross margin opportunities for our Texas fleet in a dynamic pricing environment.

正如您所看到的，ERCOT 遠期定價已大幅上漲。對此的唯一解釋是，市場開始反映出大負載成長所帶來的電力需求增加。另外值得注意的是，該曲線不再落後，這顯示了德州電力市場持續緊張的觀點和長期觀點。基於上季額外的模型揭露。在幻燈片的右側，我們提供了必要的組件，以便在動態定價環境中對我們德克薩斯州機隊的毛利率機會進行定向建模。

We begin with the 2024 Texas generation base gross margin and include expected hedge positions of nearly fully hedged in year 1, roughly half in year 2 and less than 25% in year 3 for economic generation, respectively. We have also included an open gross margin scenario, which assumes no hedges. You will observe that our price sensitivity doesn't follow a linear pattern. Units becoming economically viable at different price levels, resulting in disproportionately larger benefits from increases in power prices compared to decreases.

我們從2024 年德州發電基礎毛利率開始，包括經濟發電的第一年幾乎完全對沖的預期對沖頭寸、第二年大約一半的預期對沖頭寸和第三年不到25% 的預期對沖頭寸。我們還包括了一個開放的毛利率情景，該情景假設沒有對沖。您會發現我們的價格敏感度並不遵循線性模式。不同價格水準的機組在經濟上變得可行，與電價下降相比，電價上漲帶來的收益不成比例地更大。

With ERCOT forward pricing rising $10 in the outer years on an open gross margin basis, this complies more than $400 million of margin benefit compared to 2024. Assuming we are 25% hedged in the year that, that move occurs, it translates to approximately $350 million of upside compared to 2024, and this is simply the beginning. This sensitivity analysis demonstrates that our portfolio is well positioned to capture significant margin upside in a rising price environment and that the underlying fundamental value of our fleet has materially increased. Supported by our diversified supply strategy, we have the agility and flexibility to leverage these market dynamics and translate them into significant and durable shareholder value.

由於ERCOT 遠期定價在開放毛利率的基礎上在外部年份上漲10 美元，與2024 年相比，這符合超過4 億美元的利潤收益。的對沖，則相當於大約350 美元與 2024 年相比，有 100 萬的上漲空間，而這只是一個開始。這項敏感度分析表明，我們的投資組合處於有利位置，可以在價格上漲的環境中獲得顯著的利潤成長，並且我們機隊的基本價值已大幅增加。在我們多元化供應策略的支持下，我們能夠靈活、靈活地利用這些市場動態，並將其轉化為顯著且持久的股東價值。

On Slide 12, I want to close by providing details of our site portfolio. Driven by the need for more capacity in the highly valued attributes these sites possess, we are incredibly excited about their potential value. We have 21 sites with 21,000 acres of land within competitive markets that are prime locations for new large loads and power plant development, with colocation opportunities both behind and in front of the meter.

在投影片 12 上，我想透過提供我們網站組合的詳細資訊來結束。由於這些網站所擁有的高價值屬性需要更多容量，我們對它們的潛在價值感到非常興奮。我們在競爭激烈的市場中擁有 21 個場地，佔地 21,000 英畝，是新建大型負載和發電廠開發的黃金地段，在電錶前後都有託管機會。

These sites offer a mix of valuable and critical access to infrastructure, including transmission, interconnection, water, abundance of land and proximity to long-haul fiber networks. Of particular significance to data centers, these attributes offer expedited construction time lines measured in years of time savings.

這些站點提供了對基礎設施的寶貴且關鍵的訪問，包括傳輸、互連、水、豐富的土地以及鄰近的長途光纖網路。這些屬性對資料中心尤其重要，它們提供了以節省數年時間來衡量的加速建設時間線。

We have established a dedicated team focused on maximizing the value of our site portfolio. When the analysis is complete later in the year, you can expect to hear more information from us regarding the potential for these sites and what would be required to turn them into new capacity, data center locations or behind the meter projects.

我們建立了一個專門的團隊，致力於最大限度地提高我們網站組合的價值。當分析在今年稍後完成時，您可以期待從我們那裡聽到更多關於這些網站的潛力以及將它們轉變為新容量、資料中心位置或電錶項目背後所需的資訊。

With that, let me turn it over to Bruce for the first quarter review.

就這樣，讓我把第一季的回顧交給布魯斯。

Thank you, Larry. Turning to Slide 14. Our top decile safety and strong operating performance resulted in first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $849 million, exceeding the first quarter of 2023 by $203 million. This represents a 31% increase in our adjusted EBITDA from the prior year. $150 million of the year-over-year increase was the result of the inclusion of a full quarter's worth of Smart Home EBITDA.

謝謝你，拉里。轉向幻燈片 14。這意味著我們調整後的 EBITDA 比前一年增長了 31%。年增 1.5 億美元是由於納入了整個季度的智慧家庭 EBITDA。

The remaining increase was attributable to outperformance in our East and West segments, driven by lower realized supply costs, partially offset by a slight decline in our Texas region due to mild weather. Our consumer energy and smart home platforms increased customer counts year-over-year by 8% and 6%, respectively.

剩餘的增長歸因於我們的東部和西部部門的優異表現，這是由於已實現的供應成本較低，部分被德克薩斯州地區因天氣溫和而略有下降所抵消。我們的消費能源和智慧家庭平台的客戶數量比去年同期分別增加了 8% 和 6%。

Most notably, we added 35,000 customers from the newly opened Lubbock market in Texas, representing a healthy share of the available customer base. This is a testament to the hard work of our consumer energy team over the past 2 years to position NRG and its brands as the electricity provider of choice in Lubbock. Similar to 2023, our Smart Home platform continued to demonstrate strong execution. In addition to growing customer count 6% year-over-year, service margins increased 5% year-over-year, and monthly recurring revenue per subscriber grew 5% over the same period.

最值得注意的是，我們從德州新開設的拉伯克市場增加了 35,000 名客戶，佔可用客戶群的健康份額。這證明了我們的消費者能源團隊在過去兩年中為將 NRG 及其品牌定位為拉伯克的首選電力供應商所付出的辛勤努力。與 2023 年類似，我們的智慧家庭平台也持續展現出強大的執行力。除了客戶數量年增 6% 外，服務利潤率年增 5%，每個用戶的每月經常性收入同期成長 5%。

It is clear that customers recognize the value of our Smart Home services as evidenced by our growth in the face of various macro headwinds affecting the consumer discretionary sector. Our diversified supply strategy continued to deliver, ensuring that we sustain the level of margin expansion we saw in 2023 while also providing the necessary coverage against potential volatility in the winter months.

顯然，客戶認識到我們智慧家居服務的價值，我們在面對影響非必需消費品產業的各種宏觀逆風時的成長就證明了這一點。我們的多元化供應策略持續發揮作用，確保我們維持 2023 年的利潤率擴張水平，同時也為冬季的潛在波動提供必要的保障。

As we discussed in our last earnings call, our fleet performed well in the first quarter, demonstrating a 12% improvement in our in-the-money availability factor winter-over-winter. We have taken advantage of the mild winter in February and March to conduct our maintenance activities more proactively, and we feel confident about fleet performance heading into the critical summer months.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議中討論的那樣，我們的機隊在第一季表現良好，我們的實值可用率比冬季提高了 12%。我們利用二月和三月的暖冬，更積極地進行維護活動，我們對進入關鍵夏季月份的機隊性能充滿信心。

Next, I would like to highlight some of what we have focused on as an organization through the first quarter as well as what we continue to remain focused on through the balance of the year. During the quarter, we concluded the $950 million accelerated share repurchase program we launched in November of last year. Through that program, we repurchased nearly 19 million shares at an average price of $50.43 per share, or almost 10% of the shares outstanding, at the time that we launched the ASR.

接下來，我想強調我們作為一個組織在第一季重點關注的一些內容，以及我們在今年剩餘時間內繼續關注的內容。本季度，我們完成了去年 11 月啟動的 9.5 億美元加速股票回購計畫。透過該計劃，我們以每股 50.43 美元的平均價格回購了近 1,900 萬股股票，即我們推出 ASR 時已發行股票的近 10%。

We remain committed to our capital allocation plan, and we are reaffirming our 2024 return of capital amount of approximately $1.2 billion, comprised of our common dividends, which we increased earlier this year and a further $825 million in share repurchases. As Larry discussed, we continue to advance our 1.5 gigawatts of brownfield development in Texas. We will be filing our Notices of Intent for the 3 projects to the Texas Energy Fund in the coming days, and we anticipate filing formal loan applications in early June when they are due.

我們仍然致力於我們的資本分配計劃，並重申我們 2024 年的資本回報金額約為 12 億美元，其中包括我們今年早些時候增加的普通股股息以及另外 8.25 億美元的股票回購。正如 Larry 所討論的，我們將繼續推進德克薩斯州 1.5 吉瓦的棕地開發。我們將在未來幾天內向德州能源基金提交這 3 個項目的意向通知，預計在 6 月初到期時提交正式貸款申請。

Our brownfield development portfolio comprised of 2 peaking plants and 1 combined cycle project, with CODs ranging from 2026 to 2028 is shovel-ready, and represents some of the most real natural gas-fired development opportunities in the ERCOT market. We have been developing these projects since 2021 and we believe that the advancements we have made on the permitting and equipment procurement fronts should position these projects at the front of the queue for consideration by the PUCT for funding out of the loan program.

我們的棕地開發組合由 2 個調峰工廠和 1 個聯合循環項目組成，COD 範圍為 2026 年至 2028 年，已準備就緒，代表了 ERCOT 市場中一些最真實的天然氣開發機會。自 2021 年以來，我們一直在開發這些項目，我們相信，我們在許可和設備採購方面取得的進步應該使這些項目處於隊列的前面，供 PUCT 考慮從貸款計劃中獲得資金。

Next, we continue to remain on track to achieve our $550 million program of growth and efficiency initiatives across our business platforms. As I mentioned earlier, our consumer platforms continue to drive strong stand-alone growth, and we continue to see positive momentum in our ability to generate more margin per customer. A great example of this is the tremendous progress we've made in selling the Vivint protection plan. We started selling this plan shortly after closing the Vivint acquisition. And to date, we have about 15% penetration of the existing Smart Home customer base or over 300,000 active plans, with each plan generating approximately $9 of monthly revenue per customer.

接下來，我們將繼續致力於在我們的業務平台上實現 5.5 億美元的成長和效率計劃。正如我之前提到的，我們的消費者平台繼續推動強勁的獨立成長，並且我們繼續看到我們為每個客戶創造更多利潤的能力的積極勢頭。一個很好的例子就是我們在銷售 Vivint 保護計畫方面取得的巨大進展。我們在完成 Vivint 收購後不久就開始出售該計劃。迄今為止，我們現有智慧家庭客戶群的滲透率約為 15%，或有超過 30 萬個活躍計劃，每個計劃為每位客戶帶來約 9 美元的月收入。

Finally, we are reaffirming our 2024 guidance for both EBITDA and free cash flow before growth. We have tremendous momentum in both our consumer and business platforms and the measures we are taking in our diversified supply strategy should set us up well for the balance of the year.

最後，我們重申 2024 年 EBITDA 與成長前自由現金流的指引。我們的消費者和商業平台都擁有巨大的動力，我們在多元化供應策略中採取的措施將為我們今年的剩餘時間奠定良好的基礎。

Turning to Slide 15 for an updated view of our 2024 capital allocation. As you can see from the slide, there have been no substantial changes since our last earnings call in terms of the quantum of capital allocated to liability management and capital return. As you may recall, we had planned $500 million of debt reduction in our last earnings call as part of the 2024 capital allocation plan.

請參閱投影片 15，以了解我們 2024 年資本配置的最新觀點。正如您從幻燈片中看到的那樣，自上次財報電話會議以來，分配給負債管理和資本回報的資本數量並沒有發生重大變化。您可能還記得，作為 2024 年資本分配計劃的一部分，我們在上次財報電話會議上計劃削減 5 億美元的債務。

As you can see from the slide, that has changed slightly given our efforts in Q1 to address our outstanding convertible notes. Through April 30, we repurchased $343 million of the outstanding principal of the convertible notes, resulting in $257 million of additional premium paid to retiring noteholders. Given the cash allocated to settle the convertible note premium, that reduced our net debt reduction to $243 million planned for the year.

正如您從幻燈片中看到的那樣，考慮到我們在第一季為解決未償付的可轉換票據問題所做的努力，情況略有變化。截至 4 月 30 日，我們回購了 3.43 億美元的可轉換票據未償還本金，從而向退休票據持有人支付了 2.57 億美元的額外溢價。考慮到分配給可轉換票據溢價的現金，我們今年計劃的淨債務削減額減少至 2.43 億美元。

Our strong share price performance over the past year made the convertible notes one of the most expensive pieces of paper in our capital structure. Therefore, we believe that made the most economic sense to pursue a retirement of that instrument before it would get even more expensive as our share price continues to reflect our fair value.

過去一年我們強勁的股價表現使可轉換票據成為我們資本結構中最昂貴的票據之一。因此，我們認為，隨著我們的股價繼續反映我們的公允價值，在該工具變得更加昂貴之前，廢除該工具是最經濟的做法。

Moving a few columns over to the right, you will see that the share repurchase column is $865 million versus the $825 million we showed in our last earnings call. The reason for that is because we now include $40 million of cash allocated to settle tax matters related to our 2023 share repurchases and Employee Stock Compensation Plan. This would include the excise tax on share repurchases instituted as part of the passage of the inflation Reduction Act.

向右移動幾列，您會看到股票回購一欄為 8.65 億美元，而我們在上次財報電話會議中顯示的為 8.25 億美元。原因是我們現在分配了 4000 萬美元現金，用於解決與 2023 年股票回購和員工股票補償計劃相關的稅務問題。這將包括作為《通貨膨脹削減法案》通過的一部分而徵收的股票回購消費稅。

Previously, we had bucketed that allocated cash in other categories, but we decided to move those dollars into the share repurchases category in order to more accurately reflect what the cash is being used for. Finally, similar to our last earnings call, we continue to show $41 million of unallocated capital available for allocation in 2024, which we will evaluate the use of as we move along the year. With that, I will turn it back to you, Larry.

先前，我們曾將現金分配到其他類別，但我們決定將這些資金轉移到股票回購類別，以便更準確地反映現金的用途。最後，與我們上次的財報電話會議類似，我們繼續顯示 2024 年可供分配的未分配資本為 4,100 萬美元，我們將在這一年中評估這些資本的使用情況。這樣，我會把它轉回給你，拉里。

Thank you very much, Bruce. On Slide 17, I want to provide you a few closing thoughts on our 2024 priorities and expectations. We remain laser focused on execution and on delivering on our financial, operational and safety commitments. We are seeing a step change improvement in fundamentals across all of our platforms. We believe that this will put a spotlight on the scarcity of the critical products and services we sell and the durability of that platform. We are uniquely positioned to deliver significant shareholder value for years to come.

非常感謝你，布魯斯。在投影片 17 上，我想向您提供一些關於我們 2024 年優先事項和期望的總結想法。我們仍然專注於執行和兌現我們的財務、營運和安全承諾。我們看到我們所有平台的基本面都在逐步改善。我們相信，這將使人們專注於我們銷售的關鍵產品和服務的稀缺性以及該平台的耐用性。我們處於獨特的地位，可以在未來幾年為股東創造巨大的價值。

Again, we are the only company to combine residential, energy and smart technologies at scale, with nearly 8 million customers and the necessary capabilities to create sustainable value through both tightening and loosening power market conditions. We operate the second largest business-to-business electricity and largest natural gas platform in North America, positioning us as a leader in premium services and tailored energy management solutions.

同樣，我們是唯一一家大規模結合住宅、能源和智慧技術的公司，擁有近 800 萬客戶，並具備透過收緊和寬鬆的電力市場條件創造永續價值的必要能力。我們經營北美第二大企業對企業電力和最大的天然氣平台，使我們成為優質服務和客製化能源管理解決方案的領導者。

Our integrated supply strategy provides incredible capabilities to stabilize near-term earnings while capturing medium- to long-term margin expansion opportunities from higher power prices. And we own a large Latin portfolio with premium attributes for what is to come in the super cycle of power demand.

我們的綜合供應策略提供了令人難以置信的能力來穩定近期收益，同時從更高的電價中抓住中長期利潤擴張的機會。我們擁有龐大的拉丁投資組合，具有針對即將到來的電力需求超級週期的優質屬性。

In my 20 years at the company and over 40 years in power, I have never been more excited about the future of our sector at NRG. The step change in demand should lead also to a change in the depressed valuations for NRG and its peers. These depressed valuations have resulted in double-digit cash flow yields such as ours. This revaluation will be good for NRG and others in our space, and it's very exciting times. I look forward to updating you on our progress along the way.

在公司工作的 20 年和掌權的 40 多年裡，我對 NRG 部門的未來從未如此興奮。需求的逐步變化也應該會導致 NRG 及其同業低迷的估值發生變化。這些低迷的估值導致了像我們這樣的兩位數的現金流收益率。這次重估對 NRG 和我們領域的其他人來說都是好事，這是非常令人興奮的時刻。我期待向您通報我們一路走來的最新進展。

With that, I want to thank you for your time and interest in NRG. We're now ready to open the line for questions.

在此，我要感謝您對 NRG 的關注和關注。我們現在準備開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shahriar Pourreza。

Just Larry, on the curves themselves. There's, obviously, a lot of chatter in the industry right now about some large generators like nukes to go behind the meter. Is this something, I guess, that concerns you as you look at your length in the Eastern markets? So as you go out to the market to match load, are suppliers raising any kind of concerns there?

只有拉里，在曲線上。顯然，目前業界有很多關於一些大型發電機（如核武）在儀表後面的討論。我想，當您考慮您在東方市場的時間長度時，您是否擔心這一點？那麼，當您去市場匹配負載時，供應商是否會提出任何擔憂？

Shar, it's Rob. Like it doesn't raise any concerns for us as far as trying to purchase supply so that we can meet retail obligations. Even if they do go behind the meter, there's plenty of players in the East. It's a very liquid market.

莎爾，是羅布。就像我們試圖購買供應以便履行零售義務一樣，這不會引起我們的任何擔憂。即使他們確實落後了，東部也有很多球員。這是一個流動性非常強的市場。

Okay. Got it. Perfect. And then maybe just a little longer dated. But as you're kind of highlighting the Texas fleet heavily here, it seems warranted. How would you -- the recent sort of the EPA regs as they stand, impact your generation profile maybe over the next couple of years, right? Is it just additional CapEx? Could we see an acceleration of gas development work beyond the 1.5 gigs that, obviously, Bruce was highlighting of shovel-ready proposals. Just more color on how these items are kind of interacting.

好的。知道了。完美的。然後也許日期會長一點。但當你在這裡大力強調德州艦隊時，這似乎是有道理的。您認為最新的 EPA 法規可能會在未來幾年內如何影響您的發電情況，對嗎？這只是額外的資本支出嗎？我們能否看到天然氣開發工作的加速超越 1.5 場演出，顯然，布魯斯強調了準備就緒的建議。只是更多地說明這些項目如何相互作用。

Sure. So when you think about the regulations that were promulgated, the first thing I would say, Shar, is that they're all going to be litigated, right? AG, states, ISOs, consumers, everyone has a view and a reason to make sure that these rules get set in place in a way that works for the system and provides reliable and affordable power over time. As far as specifics around us, some of the rules will have to see how they pan out at the end.

當然。因此，當你想到已頒布的法規時，Shar，我首先要說的是，它們都會受到訴訟，對嗎？ AG、各州、ISO、消費者，每個人都有自己的觀點和理由，以確保這些規則以適合系統的方式製定，並隨著時間的推移提供可靠且負擔得起的電力。就我們周圍的具體情況而言，有些規則必須看看最終效果如何。

But what I would tell you is that our decisions to invest around the gas fleet or the 1.5 gig that Bruce talked about earlier, have nothing to do with these regs. It's all about the opportunity that we see in the markets, and we'll continue to drive that way. Does that make sense?

但我要告訴你的是，我們圍繞天然氣車隊或布魯斯之前談到的 1.5 演出的投資決定與這些法規無關。這一切都與我們在市場上看到的機會有關，我們將繼續朝著這個方向努力。那有意義嗎？

Yes. That was perfect. And then, Larry, it sounds like you're having a really good time on the job right now. So maybe you're not in a rush. But is there anything as far as any updates on the CEO search? Or are you having too much fun?

是的。那太完美了。然後，拉里，聽起來你現在工作得很開心。所以也許你並不著急。但執行長搜尋方面有什麼更新嗎？還是你玩得太開心了？

Well, Shar, I am having a lot of fun. But look, it's a great team, and it's a great company and it's -- look, it's a fantastic job. The committee continues to do its work. I think they're still on the time frame that I talked to you about, but there's no rush. I've told them that, to take their time and that I will continue in this position as long as necessary, until they find the right person that they're happy with to be the next CEO of NRG. But given all the opportunities that we have and everything that we've been talking about on this call, you're right, Shar, I am having fun. And I think you're supposed to have fun.

嗯，莎爾，我玩得很開心。但你看，這是一個很棒的團隊，這是一家偉大的公司，而且──你看，這是一份很棒的工作。該委員會繼續開展工作。我認為他們仍然在我和你談論的時間框架內，但並不著急。我告訴他們，請慢慢來，只要有必要，我將繼續擔任這個職位，直到他們找到他們滿意的合適人選來擔任 NRG 的下一任執行長。但考慮到我們擁有的所有機會以及我們在這次電話會議中討論的所有內容，你是對的，莎爾，我很開心。我想你應該要玩得很開心。

Perfect. Really big congrats to Elizabeth. She's been such a fantastic phase for NRG for some time.

完美的。真的非常祝賀伊麗莎白。一段時間以來，她一直是 NRG 的絕佳舞台。

The next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So first, for the last maybe 20 years, you were trying to convince us that you are power price-agnostic. Clearly, not any longer. That's number one. So how do we think about it, this new backdrop, how it impacts your retail business versus wholesale business? Is this additional margin going to be realized by selling this more expensive power to the retail arm? So that's number one. Number two is, so this is gross margin. Is there like an additional O&M layer, we should think about or on maintenance, both on the cost side and CapEx side? Just to get a sense of how big an impact you will have on the EBITDA of the sway in power prices.

首先，在過去大約 20 年裡，您一直試圖讓我們相信您對電價不可知論。顯然，不再是了。這是第一名。那麼我們如何看待這個新背景，它如何影響您的零售業務與批發業務？透過將這種更昂貴的電力出售給零售部門，可以實現額外的利潤嗎？所以這是第一。第二，這是毛利率。是否有額外的維運層，我們應該在成本方面和資本支出方面考慮或維護？只是為了了解電價的波動會對 EBITDA 產生多大的影響。

And let me have Rob talk a little bit about the CapEx and repair side. And then I'd ask Rasesh to talk a little bit about the margin side .

讓我讓 Rob 談談資本支出和維修方面的問題。然後我會請 Rasesh 談談利潤方面的問題。

Angie, when you think about taking the gross margin expansion that you see on the chart and then trying to translate that across over to EBITDA, I would point out -- so think about it in 2 pieces, right? So on the plants that are the generation that's currently running today, right, the stuff that we've built into our numbers and are running today. When you see a step change in power that has zero impact on OpEx for those megawatts because they're already running.

安吉，當您考慮圖表上看到的毛利率擴張，然後嘗試將其轉化為 EBITDA 時，我會指出 - 所以將其分為兩部分，對吧？因此，對於目前正在運行的這一代工廠來說，我們已經將其納入我們的數字中，並且今天正在運行。當您看到功率的階躍變化對這些兆瓦的營運支出影響為零時，因為它們已經在運行。

The place where you'll pick up additional OpEx and translate that down to EBITDA is on the stuff that's running more. So we talked to you guys historically about an increase in run times on some assets, given a change in price. It's those additional hours that actually cost you more. And the way that I would translate that down would probably be at the same kind of rate, which is Bruce, correct me if I'm wrong, 80%.

您將獲得額外的營運支出並將其轉化為 EBITDA 的地方是運行更多的東西。因此，我們過去曾與你們討論過，考慮到價格的變化，某些資產的運行時間會增加。實際上，正是這些額外的時間讓您付出了更多的代價。我將其向下翻譯的方式可能會是相同的比率，布魯斯，如果我錯了，請糾正我，80%。

Yes, we would probably see something like an 80% translation to EBITDA and then probably like a 75% translation of the free cash flow.

是的，我們可能會看到 EBITDA 轉化為 80%，然後自由現金流可能會轉化為 75%。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

And then, Angie, on the retail margins, I mean, I think we've proven our ability to maintain strong retail margins over time. Increasing power prices really affect our competitors as well, and they historically proven to be rational in pricing. And so when you look at quarterly move up of the curve like we're experiencing now, it gives us ample time to pass that through to consumers. And in fact, energy prices have gone up almost 75% caused from 2017 to 2023. We've actually been able to increase margin over that period. And so we feel confident in our ability to do that.

然後，安吉，關於零售利潤率，我的意思是，我認為我們已經證明了我們有能力隨著時間的推移保持強勁的零售利潤率。電價上漲確實也影響了我們的競爭對手，歷史證明他們的定價是合理的。因此，當你看到我們現在所經歷的季度曲線上升時，這給了我們足夠的時間將其傳遞給消費者。事實上，從 2017 年到 2023 年，能源價格上漲了近 75%。因此，我們對自己有能力做到這一點充滿信心。

Okay. And then one other question. So you're talking about the gas-fired new build. I mean I was just doing some -- running some simple math here. Given growing supply of renewable power, right, you probably can't necessarily count on very high capacity factors for these assets, which would suggest that power prices need to be multiples of what we are seeing in the forward curve, in order to justify construction of these new gas plants. So I'm just wondering how you see it. Even in Texas, those peakers and combined cycle gas plant that you're pitching. Even with subsidized loans, it's hard to imagine that these assets would be economic at a $60 around-the-clock or north price.

好的。然後還有一個問題。所以你說的是瓦斯新建建築。我的意思是我只是在這裡做了一些簡單的數學運算。鑑於再生能源供應不斷增長，對吧，你可能不一定能指望這些資產非常高的容量因素，這意味著電價需要是我們在遠期曲線中看到的數倍，才能證明建設的合理性這些新的天然氣工廠。所以我只是想知道你怎麼看它。即使在德克薩斯州，您正在推銷的那些調峰器和聯合循環天然氣工廠也是如此。即使有補貼貸款，也很難想像這些資產以 60 美元的晝夜價格或北方價格計算是否經濟。

Angie, it's Rob again. I would tell you that the assets are economic. The way to think about the beauty of peakers, or CCGTs, is that they can flex meaning they can move. And they can capture the value in the hours that matter. We've been trying to transfer our portfolio to something like that for a few years now. And so when you see prices move, right, so as you see the curves go up, particularly in ERCOT, it doesn't mean that every hour goes up by that same amount.

安吉，又是羅布。我告訴你，資產是經濟的。思考峰者（CCGT）之美的方式是，他們可以彎曲，這意味著他們可以移動。他們可以在重要的時間內捕捉價值。幾年來，我們一直在嘗試將我們的投資組合轉移到類似的領域。因此，當您看到價格變動時，對吧，當您看到曲線上升時，尤其是在 ERCOT 中，這並不意味著每小時都會上漲相同的量。

It's the very tight hours that go up those exponential amounts that you're talking about. Is that cleared up? So think about the afternoon in Texas in the summer. That is going to go up 5 or 6x versus morning of that same day may have gone up once. And peakers are the things that make money in that [work].

你所說的指數級增長是由於工作時間非常緊張。這事澄清了嗎？想想夏天德克薩斯州的下午。這將上漲 5 或 6 倍，而當天早上可能會上漲一次。而巔峰者就是那些在[工作]中賺錢的東西。

Yes. Angie, let me just add that every one of these projects, even on a sort of -- without thinking about lots of rising pricing, without thinking about (inaudible) instruments costs or things, pencils out to be -- they all pencil out to be over our stated hurdle rate. And everything I just mentioned and the things that Rob just mentioned or upside on top of that.

是的。安吉，讓我補充一下，這些項目中的每一個，即使是在某種意義上 - 沒有考慮大量上漲的價格，沒有考慮（聽不清）儀器成本或事情，鉛筆出來 - 他們都鉛筆出來超過我們規定的最低門檻率。還有我剛才提到的一切以及羅布剛剛提到的事情或除此之外的好處。

So but in light of that, I'm sorry, I'm asking (inaudible) line questions. But in light of that, the fact that the new build is materializing at these prices, wouldn't that suggest that there's a cap on the upside to power prices? Because that's usually what it suggests, right, that the new build materializes and that sort of deflates the tightness of power markets.

因此，鑑於此，我很抱歉，我正在問（聽不清楚）線路問題。但鑑於此，新建案正在以這些價格實現，這是否表示電價上漲有上限？因為這通常意味著新建設的實現，這在一定程度上緩解了電力市場的緊張狀況。

Angie, I think if you look at the tightness versus the 1.5 gigawatts, the tightness far exceeds it. And so yes, at some point, of course, if there's enough new build that might exclude the tightness. But if you look at the number of projects that are on the books, not just ours, but everybody's, the time it's going to take to complete those, I don't worry about that tightness being loosened in any significant way for the next several years.

安吉，我認為如果你看看與 1.5 吉瓦相比的緊密程度，緊密程度遠遠超過它。所以，是的，當然，在某個時候，如果有足夠的新建築可以排除緊張的情況。但是，如果你看看帳面上的項目數量，不僅僅是我們的項目，還有每個人的項目數量，以及完成這些項目所需的時間，我不擔心接下來的幾個項目的緊張程度會以任何顯著的方式放鬆。

The next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼。

So just, I guess, following on Angie's first question, I just want to try to reconcile kind of NRG in the old world of low prices for longer versus NRG now in this new world. I don't recall you talking about hedges rolling off and then suddenly being exposed to low power prices.

所以，我想，在安吉的第一個問題之後，我只是想嘗試調和舊世界中低價的 NRG 與現在這個新世界中的 NRG 的關係。我不記得您曾談論過對沖措施的取消，然後突然面臨低電價的影響。

There was the integrated model and the customers kind of side to kind of hedge the low prices. So just how do I -- why wouldn't I still not have to think about some kind of integrated model and maybe the retail margins coming down against the lower, against the higher power prices? Or just how do we reconcile the two?

有整合模型和客戶對沖低價的一方。那麼我該如何——為什麼我仍然不必考慮某種綜合模型，也許零售利潤會隨著電價的降低和電價的上漲而下降？或者我們如何協調兩者？

Steve, I think what it has to do with really is the step change in the market. I mean before we have prices moved and really commodity-driven, those were sort of transitory, and we were managing for the steadiness. I think what you're seeing here is a step change where the flexibility of the integrated model allows us to gear ourselves, in order to take advantage of the higher prices. So the model hasn't changed. It's one of the things -- the reason we never talked about it is we never saw a step change like this. But one of the benefits of the integrated model that we've been pursuing is that it allows us to gear to price increases like this.

史蒂夫，我認為這確實與市場的逐步變化有關。我的意思是，在價格發生變化並且真正由大宗商品驅動之前，這些都是暫時的，我們正在努力保持穩定。我認為您在這裡看到的是一個階躍變化，整合模型的靈活性使我們能夠調整自己，以便利用更高的價格。所以模型沒有改變。這是其中一件事——我們從未談論過它的原因是我們從未見過這樣的一步變化。但我們一直追求的整合模型的好處之一是，它使我們能夠適應這樣的價格上漲。

Got it. Okay. And then on the kind of sites opportunity and also on the new build generation. Could you give us maybe a little bit more color on how you're thinking about funding for those opportunities? And how much might come from NRG versus kind of third-party buying stakes or making the investment? Just maybe some kind of broader overlay how you're thinking about that.

知道了。好的。然後是關於網站機會的類型以及新一代的構建。您能否告訴我們您如何考慮為這些機會提供資金？與第三方購買股份或進行投資相比，NRG 能帶來多少收益？也許只是某種更廣泛的覆蓋你的想法。

Yes. So Steve, it's Bruce here. First, on the new builds. Obviously, from a funding perspective, we intend to access the Texas Energy Fund. So that's going to be 60% of the capital costs related to the new builds right there. The other 40% of equity, we feel confident that we can fund that from our own cash and cash flow, without impacting any of our capital allocation commitments, in terms of share repurchases and deleveraging.

是的。史蒂夫，布魯斯來了。首先，關於新建置。顯然，從資金角度來看，我們打算獲得德州能源基金。因此，這將佔與新建建築相關的資本成本的 60%。另外 40% 的股權，我們有信心可以從我們自己的現金和現金流中為其提供資金，而不會影響我們在股票回購和去槓桿化方面的任何資本配置承諾。

So from our perspective, we feel pretty well capitalized to be able to handle all of that by ourselves. Obviously, as we've always said, to the extent that these projects are getting built and there's a unique opportunity to potentially attract third-party capital at a very attractive proposition, then we would certainly give that some consideration.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們感覺自己資本充足，能夠獨自處理所有這些事情。顯然，正如我們一直所說的那樣，如果這些項目正在建設中，並且有一個獨特的機會以非常有吸引力的提議潛在地吸引第三方資本，那麼我們肯定會給予一些考慮。

But right now, as we sit here today, we feel good about our ability to fund those projects on our own. As far as the 21 sites, it's still early days. How it is that, that ultimately translates into what sort of opportunities that results in are still to be discovered. And so don't really have a perspective on any capital need in that regard as we sit here today.

但現在，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對自己為這些項目提供資金的能力感到滿意。就 21 個站點而言，現在還處於早期階段。它是如何最終轉化為什麼樣的機會仍有待發現。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，對這方面的任何資本需求並沒有真正的看法。

Okay. And just last quick one. Obviously, the higher stock price, you mentioned still reaffirming the 15% to 20% growth. So that, I assume means you're expecting a better numerator there in terms of free cash flow to support that? And what is driving that? Is that mainly the higher power prices?

好的。最後一個快點。顯然，您提到的股價較高，仍然重申了15%至20%的成長。所以，我認為這意味著您期望在自由現金流方面有一個更好的分子來支持這一點？是什麼推動了這股趨勢？主要是電價上漲嗎？

I always have my opportunity to give you a warmer answer (inaudible) Larry Coben but -- well, the first part of your answer, yes. Look, I mean I think we see, obviously, not only continued execution against our $550 million growth and cost program. But I think as you can see here, based on the sensitivities we provided you, there is going to be -- we do see upside as a result of the forward curve.

我總是有機會給你一個更溫暖的答案（聽不清楚）拉里科本但是 - 好吧，你答案的第一部分，是的。聽著，我的意思是，我認為我們顯然不僅看到繼續執行我們 5.5 億美元的成長和成本計劃。但我認為，正如您在這裡所看到的，根據我們為您提供的敏感性，我們確實看到了遠期曲線帶來的上行空間。

The next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Just maybe can you help us just frame very high level on the 21 sites that you discussed. How many -- if there's a way to think about how many potential gigawatts that you can add over time? And then also address how quickly you can add the gigawatts. Just the reason being that the demand, like you just said Larry, this is a step change in demand. I'm just thinking about how quick the response can lead to that.

也許您可以幫助我們在您討論的 21 個網站上建立非常高水準的框架。如果有辦法考慮隨著時間的推移可以增加多少潛在的千兆瓦？然後還要解決增加千兆瓦的速度。原因是需求，就像你剛才說的拉里，這是需求的階梯變化。我只是在考慮響應速度有多快才能實現這一點。

Yes. It's a great question, Durgesh, and it's one that we're working on and it's why we've set up this sort of new group to deal with data centers. I don't know the answer yet. I don't -- we're trying to figure that out. We see ginormous potential, but obviously, there's a ton of work to do in terms of -- to figure out exactly how quickly, what's best on this site? Is it better for a data center or a power plant? Is it better for colocation behind the meter, in front of the meter? So we're spending a lot of time working through those. And I think when we have more color on them, we'll certainly provide that to you all, but I'm not sure that will be in the next 2 or 3 months. It will probably be closer to the end of the year. As you know, the power plant development is an awful lot of work.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，Durgesh，這也是我們正在研究的問題，這也是我們成立此類新小組來處理資料中心的原因。我還不知道答案。我不知道——我們正在努力解決這個問題。我們看到了巨大的潛力，但顯然，還有大量的工作要做——要弄清楚這個網站到底有多快、什麼是最好的？資料中心和發電廠哪個比較好？並置在表後還是表前比較好？所以我們花了很多時間來解決這些問題。我認為當我們有更多的顏色時，我們肯定會為大家提供，但我不確定會在接下來的 2 或 3 個月內提供。大概會接近年底。如您所知，發電廠的開發是一項艱鉅的工作。

That makes sense. I appreciate that, Larry. And then maybe just -- I know this is going to be another tough question, but just can you share your calculus or how you're thinking about buybacks here, given how the stock has kind of gone up in valuation versus investing in these in these opportunities, which obviously, have a tremendous run rate. How do you think about that?

這就說得通了。我很感激，拉里。然後也許只是 - 我知道這將是另一個棘手的問題，但考慮到股票的估值與投資這些股票相比，您能否分享您的計算或您如何考慮回購？率。您對此有何看法？

Let me begin by repeating what Bruce said, which is we are reaffirming our capital allocation that we promised everybody. Obviously, when your stock is trading at a 25% free cash flow yield, it's an easy decision, but we still believe we have enough capital to both do our investing and return capital to our shareholders. And I don't see that changing in the short or medium term. So I think we're going to just continue to be disciplined in terms of returning capital and given -- especially given the rises that we've been talking about here will likely should actually have more capital to invest ourselves.

讓我先重複布魯斯所說的話，即我們正在重申我們向所有人承諾的資本配置。顯然，當您的股票以 25% 的自由現金流收益率交易時，這是一個簡單的決定，但我們仍然相信我們有足夠的資本來進行投資並將資本返還給股東。我認為這種情況在短期或中期不會改變。因此，我認為我們將繼續在資本返還方面遵守紀律，特別是考慮到我們在這裡討論的成長實際上可能應該有更多的資本來投資自己。

And it won't surprise you to hear that there's an awful lot of people who also now want to co-invest with us in a lot of these kind of projects. So I think the possibilities for doing accretive generation and related projects are there, regardless -- irrespective of our capital allocation principles.

如果您聽說現在有很多人也想與我們共同投資很多此類項目，您不會感到驚訝。因此，我認為，無論我們的資本分配原則如何，進行增值發電和相關項目的可能性都是存在的。

Next question comes from David Zimmerman at Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛·齊默爾曼。

Dave Arcaro here. Following up on one of the earlier questions. I was wondering, just on the ERCOT market and pricing in the market and the forward curves. Do you have a view from here on where ERCOT prices could go? Is there still room for upside? Do you think in terms of where the forward curve is currently pricing?

戴夫·阿卡羅在這裡。跟進之前的問題之一。我想知道 ERCOT 市場以及市場定價和遠期曲線。您對 ERCOT 價格的走向有何看法？還有上升空間嗎？您認為遠期曲線目前的定價位置如何？

David, it's Rob. Yes. The markets can definitely go up. If you look at the large loans that are coming to the state into the system, ERCOT is already beginning to monitor and take a look at it. It's a lot. And you're seeing that price in. There is more upside in the curves from here.

大衛，我是羅布。是的。市場肯定會上漲。如果你看看進入該州系統的大額貸款，ERCOT 已經開始監控並查看它。很多。你會看到這個價格。

Okay. Got it. And does that -- as you're kind of hedging into that, then, is that a view that you're embedding as you start to layer in hedges and firm up some of your out-year EBITDA forecast?

好的。知道了。那麼，當你對沖這一點時，你是否會在開始分層對沖並確定一些年外 EBITDA 預測時嵌入這種觀點？

So when we think about our out-year EBITDA, remember that a big part of our hedging program is through the retail book, right? So as we sell to our 8 million consumers, that ultimately takes a lot of that value and translates it over through the retail revenue rates. We're always looking way out the curve, David. If I thought that something was really high and out of whack, then I would say that we could take something off the table. But we like the position, we like the trend and we like where our portfolio is.

因此，當我們考慮我們的年度 EBITDA 時，請記住我們的對沖計劃的很大一部分是透過零售帳簿進行的，對嗎？因此，當我們向 800 萬消費者銷售產品時，最終會佔用大量價值，並將其轉化為零售收入。我們總是在尋找出路，大衛。如果我認為某些事情確實非常高且不正常，那麼我會說我們可以將某些事情從桌面上刪除。但我們喜歡這個職位，我們喜歡趨勢，我們喜歡我們的投資組合。

Got it. And could you touch on what the competitive dynamics are that you're seeing in the retail energy business right now, in terms of any pressure from new entrants or pricing pressure in the market that might push margin one way or the other right now?

知道了。您能否談談您目前在零售能源業務中看到的競爭動態，即來自新進業者的壓力或市場中的定價壓力可能會以某種方式推高利潤率？

It's been a very stable performance. As you saw, we had strong performance in terms of customer growth year-over-year. We saw similarly good performance and load growth and our margins. And so we feel very good. I think there are a couple of new entrants in the market, but as we look at our outflow reports, we don't really see any meaningful traction there.

這是一個非常穩定的表現。正如您所看到的，我們在客戶同比成長方面表現強勁。我們看到了同樣良好的效能、負載成長和利潤。所以我們感覺很好。我認為市場上有一些新進入者，但當我們查看流出報告時，我們並沒有真正看到任何有意義的吸引力。

The final question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi.

最後一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ryan Levine。

A follow-up on some of the capital -- just a follow up on some of the capital allocation framework. Is there a price where you would reconsider buybacks? Or are you not trying to take any view on the value of the energy security?

對一些資本的後續行動－只是對一些資本配置架構的後續行動。是否存在一個讓您重新考慮回購的價格？或者您不想對能源安全的價值發表任何看法？

Brian, there is no price that we would necessarily sit here and tell you is the absolute line at which we would stop buybacks. We're always going to be looking what is implied in the share price with respect to our free cash flow yield, and we'll make the termination from that standpoint. But as we sit here today, we see plenty of room to run for us to continue to be buying back shares.

布萊恩，我們沒有必要坐在這裡告訴你我們停止回購的絕對價格。我們始終會關注股價中與我們的自由現金流收益率相關的含義，並且我們將從這個角度做出終止。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們看到有足夠的空間繼續回購股票。

Okay. And then as you're looking at on investment opportunities related to power generation growth in your service territory. Are you are you focusing -- you mentioned a number of opportunities for new build and partnerships. Do you have a preference for partnerships? Or would you prefer to own the assets out right?

好的。然後，當您正在尋找與您的服務區域內發電成長相關的投資機會時。您是否在關注—您提到了許多新建和合作夥伴關係的機會。您對合作夥伴有偏好嗎？或者您更願意擁有這些資產嗎？

I think for us, it's just a maximization and optimization process. And so I don't think we have a preference, one way or another. It's related to cost of capital, operational flexibility. And at the end of the day, what falls best to our bottom line.

我想對我們來說，這只是一個最大化和優化的過程。因此，我認為我們沒有任何偏好。它與資本成本、營運靈活性有關。歸根究底，什麼最符合我們的底線。

Okay. And given the economic outlook that you suggested was attractive for these new builds, are there any customer commitments or duration of demand that you're looking for the data centers to commit to, to underwrite some of these new builds?

好的。考慮到您所建議的經濟前景對這些新建項目具有吸引力，您是否正在尋找資料中心來承擔任何客戶承諾或需求持續時間，以承保其中一些新建項目？

It's Rob. The answer to that is no. The new builds that we talked about are not set up for data centers or forward to meet that load. The conversations we are in early days with around colocation or use of our sites. Those will be a case-by-case basis as to whether or not it's a long-term deal or not, right, with a data center or other large load. But that's going to come as we evaluate each opportunity. But the things we've talked about thus far are for our book and our portfolio.

是羅布。答案是否定的。我們討論的新版本不是為資料中心設定的，也不是為了滿足該負載而設計的。我們早期圍繞著我們網站的託管或使用進行的對話。這些將根據具體情況來確定這是否是一項長期交易，對吧，對於資料中心或其他大負載。但當我們評估每個機會時，這就會發生。但到目前為止我們討論的都是我們的書和我們的作品集。

And just one last question in terms of retail margin on electricity. The movement in ERCOT forward prices, do you think that will have any impact on the margin that you'll ultimately be able to realize on that part of your business?

最後一個問題是關於電力零售利潤的。 ERCOT 遠期價格的變動，您認為這會對您最終能夠在這部分業務中實現的利潤產生任何影響嗎？

Well, we've proven the ability to maintain strong retail margins through various curves. And so we have a very sophisticated analytic engine that gives us insights into the price sensitivity of customers. And when you have sort of these orderly shifts in power prices, we're able to pass them on to consumers over time. So we feel good about our muscle there.

嗯，我們已經證明了透過各種曲線保持強勁零售利潤的能力。因此，我們擁有一個非常複雜的分析引擎，可以讓我們深入了解客戶的價格敏感度。當電價出現這種有序變化時，我們能夠隨著時間的推移將其傳遞給消費者。所以我們對那裡的肌肉感覺良好。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn it back to Larry Coben, Chairman and Interim President and CEO, for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想請董事長兼臨時總裁兼執行長拉里·科本 (Larry Coben) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you all very much for joining us. I think you can hear the palpable excitement that we all feel here at n NRG for the potential, and we look forward to continuing to deliver great results and executing on that upside in the days, months and years ahead. Thank you all.

非常感謝大家加入我們。我認為您可以聽到 NRG 所有人對潛力的明顯興奮，我們期待在未來的幾天、幾個月和幾年裡繼續取得出色的成果並執行這一優勢。謝謝你們。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束。