使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Nokia's second quarter 2026 results call. I'm David Mulholland, Head of Nokia Investor Relations. And today with me is Justin Hotard, our President and CEO; along with Marco Wiren, our CFO.
各位女士、先生,早安。歡迎參加諾基亞 2026 年第二季業績電話會議。我是 David Mulholland,諾基亞投資人關係主管。今天與我一同出席的有我們的總裁暨執行長 Justin Hotard,以及我們的財務長 Marco Wiren。
Before we get started, a quick disclaimer. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding our future business and financial performance, and these statements are predictions that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could, therefore, differ materially from the results we currently expect. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 20-F, which is available on our Investor Relations website.
在開始之前,先做一段簡短的免責聲明。在本次電話會議中,我們將就未來業務與財務表現發表前瞻性陳述;這些陳述屬於預測,並涉及風險與不確定性。因此,實際結果可能與我們目前預期的結果有重大差異。可能造成差異的因素既可能來自外部,也可能來自內部營運因素。我們已在年度報告 Form 20-F 的「風險因素」章節中識別相關風險,該報告可於我們的投資人關係網站取得。
Within today's presentation, references to growth rates will be on a constant currency basis, and other financial items will be based on our comparable reporting. Please note that our Q2 report and a presentation that accompanies this call are published on our website. The report includes both reported and comparable financial results and reconciliation between the two. In terms of the agenda for today, Justin will go through the strategic highlights of the quarter and then Marco will go through our financial performance. We'll then move to Q&A.
在今天的簡報中,提及的成長率將以固定匯率基礎(constant currency)呈現,其他財務項目將以我們的可比口徑(comparable reporting)為基礎。請注意,我們的第二季報告以及配合本次電話會議的簡報已發布於我們的網站。該報告同時包含依報導口徑(reported)與可比口徑(comparable)的財務結果,以及兩者之間的調節。就今日議程而言,Justin 將先說明本季的策略重點,接著 Marco 將說明我們的財務表現。之後我們將進入問答環節。
With that, let me hand over to Justin.
接下來,我把時間交給 Justin。
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Thanks, David, and hello, everyone. Our second quarter showed continued progress against the strategy we set at our Capital Markets Day. Our team is focused on maximizing our opportunity in the AI super cycle, and that focus is translating into early results. I'm pleased with the progress that team Nokia has made in the first half of 2026.
謝謝你,David,各位大家好。我們第二季在資本市場日所制定的策略上持續取得進展。我們的團隊專注於在 AI 超級循環中最大化我們的機會,而這份專注正轉化為初步成果。我對諾基亞團隊在 2026 年上半年所取得的進展感到滿意。
In Q2, net sales grew 9%. We expanded our gross margin by 70 basis points to 46% and our operating margin by 70 basis points to 9%. Network Infrastructure delivered strong growth led by Optical and IP Networks with sales from AI and Cloud customers more than doubling year-on-year. Mobile Infrastructure sales also grew, and the business delivered stable profitability, largely driven by product mix. Marco will take you through the details of our financial performance in his update in a moment.
第二季,淨銷售成長 9%。我們的毛利率提升 70 個基點至 46%,營業利益率提升 70 個基點至 9%。網路基礎設施業務在光網路與 IP 網路帶動下實現強勁成長,來自 AI 與雲端客戶的銷售額年增逾一倍。行動基礎設施的銷售亦有所成長,且該業務維持穩定獲利能力,主要由產品組合所驅動。Marco 稍後將在他的更新中帶各位了解我們財務表現的細節。
I want to take a step back and look at how our first half performance demonstrates progress against the strategy we set out in -- last November. As a reminder, these are the five priorities we shared at our Capital Markets Day, and I'm pleased by the progress we've already made across each of these areas. Let me touch on a few highlights from Q2.
我想先退一步,看看我們上半年的表現如何展現我們對於去年 11 月所提出策略的推進。提醒各位,這是我們在資本市場日分享的五項優先事項,我很高興我們在每個領域都已取得進展。我先談幾個第二季的重點。
AI and Cloud was the strongest growth driver in the quarter. Net sales more than doubled year-on-year to EUR446 million and order intake grew to EUR2.8 billion. While we're very pleased with the order growth, it's important to put that number into a bit of context. Q2 benefited from several significant long-term orders as our customers look to secure supply in a constrained environment. To provide some reference, approximately half the order volume received in Q2 is expected to convert to revenue in the next 12 months.
AI 與雲端是本季最強的成長驅動力。淨銷售年增逾一倍至 4.46 億歐元,訂單承攬(order intake)成長至 28 億歐元。雖然我們對訂單成長非常滿意,但也必須把這個數字放在脈絡中理解。第二季受惠於數筆重要的長期訂單,因客戶在供應受限的環境下希望確保供貨。作為參考,第二季收到的訂單量約有一半預期將在未來 12 個月內轉為營收。
As I've said before, order patterns in this market can be lumpy and we should not expect this level of intake every quarter. As importantly, the strength was broad-based across Optical Networks and IP Networks and included some of the design wins we mentioned last quarter. This was driven by growing demand for data center interconnect and scale across fabrics from our customer base. The demand primarily shows up in our AI and Cloud segment, but we're also seeing emerging signs of growth in telecom customers as they invest to support the increased data traffic driven by the AR super cycle.
如我先前所說,這個市場的訂單型態可能呈現不均勻(lumpy),我們不應期待每一季都有如此水準的訂單承攬。同樣重要的是,這股強勁動能在光網路與 IP 網路兩大領域皆相當廣泛,並包含我們上季提到的一些設計導入(design wins)。這主要由客戶對資料中心互連(data center interconnect)以及跨 fabric 擴展的需求成長所帶動。需求主要反映在我們的 AI 與雲端部門,但我們也看到電信客戶出現初步成長跡象,因其投資以支援由 AR 超級循環帶動的資料流量增加。
During this quarter, we also secured our first multi-rail ILA design win with a major customer. This is one of the new optical networking products we launched at OFC this past March.
本季期間,我們也與一家主要客戶取得首個多軌(multi-rail)ILA 的設計導入(design win)。這是我們在今年 3 月 OFC 推出的新光網路產品之一。
Last week, we launched the industry's first commercial AI-RAN platform, marking a fundamental shift from a hardware-defined radio network to software-defined platforms. This fundamentally changes the economics of radio networks. Our AI-RAN platform gives our telco customers a path to improved network performance through software and AI innovation rather than relying on hardware upgrades as they have traditionally. The platform would deliver more than 100% spectral efficiency gains by 2028, doubling the capacity operators can get from their existing spectrum.
上週,我們推出業界首個商用 AI-RAN 平台,標誌著無線電網路從硬體定義轉向軟體定義平台的根本性轉變。這將從根本上改變無線電網路的經濟性。我們的 AI-RAN 平台為電信客戶提供一條路徑,透過軟體與 AI 創新來提升網路效能,而非如傳統上依賴硬體升級。該平台到 2028 年可帶來超過 100% 的頻譜效率提升,使營運商可從既有頻譜中獲得的容量倍增。
The performance benefits are tangible in 5G networks, and our AI-RAN platform provides a software upgrade path to 6G to ensure continuity without additional hardware investment. The platform is also open, programmable and O-RAN compliant. This gives operators greater flexibility as they evolve their networks. They can choose the hardware path that works best for them, adding AI acceleration into their existing Nokia AirScale infrastructure, deploying new AI-RAN hardware, or moving to cloud native AI-RAN. Ultimately, this is about delivering more performance, better returns, and faster delivery of new service for our customers.
在 5G 網路中,效能提升的效益是具體可見的;而我們的 AI-RAN 平台也提供通往 6G 的軟體升級路徑,確保延續性且無需額外硬體投資。該平台同時具備開放性、可程式化,並符合 O-RAN 規範。這讓營運商在演進其網路時擁有更大的彈性。他們可以選擇最適合自身的硬體路徑:在既有的 Nokia AirScale 基礎設施中加入 AI 加速、部署新的 AI-RAN 硬體,或轉向雲原生(cloud native)的 AI-RAN。歸根結底,這是為了為客戶帶來更高效能、更佳報酬,以及更快速推出新服務。
We're on track to enter pilot deployments at the end of this year and expect to be commercially available in 2027, as we've said previously. Co-innovation is a powerful differentiator for Nokia. When we combine our technology leadership with the expertise and scale of our customers and partners, we accelerate innovation, bring solutions to market faster, and solve increasingly complex challenges together. We're already demonstrating early results from this approach, and I will highlight four examples from Q2.
如我們先前所述,我們正按計畫在今年底進入試點部署(pilot deployments),並預期於 2027 年商用上市。共同創新(co-innovation)是諾基亞強而有力的差異化優勢。當我們把技術領先與客戶及合作夥伴的專業與規模結合,就能加速創新、更快將解決方案推向市場,並共同解決日益複雜的挑戰。我們已在此方法上展現初步成果,接下來我將重點說明第二季的四個例子。
First, we expanded our partnership with Google Cloud, bringing Gemini-powered AI agents into our autonomous networks portfolio. Second, with Vodafone Albania, we demonstrated AI-powered network slicing using agents to dynamically optimize network resources. Third, we expanded our relationship with Indosat or Hutchinson in Indonesia, supporting network monetization and the rollout of 5G, while providing a seamless upgrade path to AI-RAN. And fourth, we entered trials with a US hyperscaler for a new out-of-band management solution that goes inside the data center, leveraging the passive optical technology that we deliver in our Fixed Networks business.
第一,我們擴大與 Google Cloud 的合作,將由 Gemini 驅動的 AI 代理(AI agents)導入我們的自主網路(autonomous networks)產品組合。第二,我們與 Vodafone Albania 展示了由 AI 驅動的網路切片(network slicing),透過代理動態最佳化網路資源。第三,我們擴大與印尼 Indosat 或 Hutchinson 的合作,支援網路變現與 5G 部署,同時提供無縫升級至 AI-RAN 的路徑。第四,我們與一家美國超大規模雲端業者(hyperscaler)展開新型帶外(out-of-band)管理解決方案的試驗,該方案部署於資料中心內,並運用我們在固定網路(Fixed Networks)業務所提供的被動式光學技術。
We're also making progress to focus Nokia where we can differentiate and create long-term value. This means we are investing where we see long-term demand, and we believe Nokia can be a unique winner and at the same time, reducing exposure to areas where we are less differentiated.
我們也在推進聚焦諾基亞於我們能夠差異化並創造長期價值的領域。這意味著我們將投資於我們看見長期需求的地方;我們相信諾基亞能成為獨特的贏家;同時也會降低在差異化程度較低領域的曝險。
In November, we shared that our fixed wireless access customer premise equipment portfolio is not core to the future of our strategy. The sale we announced this past quarter to Inseego is an example of our disciplined approach to capital allocation and allows us to concentrate resources on higher priority opportunities. The sale is on track to close by the end of the year.
我們在 11 月曾分享,我們的固定無線接取(fixed wireless access)用戶端設備(customer premise equipment)產品組合並非未來策略的核心。我們在上一季宣布出售給 Inseego 的交易,正是我們嚴謹資本配置方法的例證,並使我們能將資源集中於更高優先順序的機會。該交易正按計畫於今年底前完成交割。
Talking about higher priority opportunities, one area of focused investment is scaling the capacity needed to support our optical growth ambitions, particularly around indium phosphide semiconductor manufacturing. In San Jose, our new indium phosphide fab is now processing test waivers as we move closer to product qualification. It remains on track for volume production by the end of the year.
談到更高優先順序的機會,其中一個重點投資領域是擴充支援我們光學成長企圖所需的產能,特別是在磷化銦半導體製造方面。在聖荷西,我們新的磷化銦晶圓廠正隨著我們更接近產品認證而處理測試豁免。該廠仍按計畫在年底前達成量產。
In June, we announced a new commitment we are making to scale our Pennsylvania facility, increasing our advanced test and packaging capacity for optical systems in that facility by 10 times.
6月,我們宣布一項新的承諾:擴大我們在賓夕法尼亞州的設施,將該設施用於光學系統的先進測試與封裝產能提升10倍。
In addition, today, we announced the acquisition of a manufacturing site from NXP in Arizona, where we plan to increase our indium phosphide fab capacity. This gives us additional capacity to support our own demand and greater optionality, recognizing the supply constraints in the market today. Altogether, these investments continue to strengthen and secure US-based optical manufacturing capacity for the long term.
此外,今天我們宣布自亞利桑那州的恩智浦(NXP)收購一處製造基地,我們計畫在該處提升磷化銦晶圓廠產能。鑑於當前市場的供應限制,這將為我們提供額外產能以支援自身需求,並帶來更大的選擇彈性。總體而言,這些投資將持續強化並確保美國本土的光學製造產能,著眼長期。
While Marco will update you on our restructuring progress, I wanted to touch on one key area where we are making progress in driving incremental productivity. We believe that to be a relevant technology provider in the AI super cycle, we need to be a leading adopter of AI internally.
Marco 會向各位更新我們的重組進展,但我想先談一個我們在推動增量生產力方面取得進展的關鍵領域。我們相信,要在 AI 超級循環中成為具相關性的技術供應商,我們必須在內部成為 AI 的領先採用者。
Last year, we established a team to deploy AI test beds across multiple functions within Nokia. One area where we're seeing early traction is software development, where we now have nearly 100% adoption across our developer base. This is already yielding significant productivity returns, supporting our efficiency targets and accelerating road map deliverables.
去年,我們成立了一個團隊,在 Nokia 內部多個職能部門部署 AI 測試平台。我們看到早期成效的一個領域是軟體開發,目前在我們的開發者群體中採用率已接近 100%。這已帶來顯著的生產力回報,支援我們的效率目標並加速路線圖交付。
We will continue to scale this initiative across every function of the organization as our test beds yield tangible results. We see this as essential not only to unlock sustainable returns, but also to be a better partner in support of our customers as we help them unlock the full potential of the AI super cycle.
隨著測試平台產出具體成果,我們將持續把這項倡議擴展到組織的每一個職能。我們認為這不僅對釋放可持續回報至關重要,也能讓我們在協助客戶釋放 AI 超級循環全部潛力時,成為更好的合作夥伴。
So in closing, I want to recognize and thank team Nokia for a strong first half of the year. We are focused on our key priorities and have begun to fundamentally change how we work. I'm pleased to see our efforts are already reflected in our results. We're entering the second half with good momentum and remain on track to deliver somewhat above the midpoint of our operating profit guidance.
最後,我要肯定並感謝 Nokia 團隊在上半年交出強勁表現。我們聚焦於關鍵優先事項,並已開始從根本上改變我們的工作方式。我很高興看到我們的努力已反映在成果之中。我們帶著良好動能進入下半年,並仍按計畫實現略高於營業利益指引中點的表現。
And now I will turn the call over to Marco to dive into our financial performance.
接下來我把電話會議交給 Marco,請他深入說明我們的財務表現。
Marco Wiren - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Marco Wiren - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Thank you, Justin, and hello from my side as well. Before looking at the quarterly performance, let me start with reporting changes we announced this morning. As we have agreed to sell our fixed wireless access business to Inseego, we now consider the sale of enterprise campus edge highly probable. As a result, both businesses are classified as discontinued operations. We have published recast historical numbers for 2025 and quarter one, 2026, to support comparability.
謝謝你,Justin,我這邊也向各位問好。在檢視季度表現之前,我先從我們今天早上宣布的報導變更談起。由於我們已同意將固定無線接取(FWA)業務出售給 Inseego,我們現在認為企業園區邊緣(enterprise campus edge)的出售高度可能。因此,這兩項業務均被歸類為終止營運。為了支援可比性,我們已發布 2025 年及 2026 年第一季的重編歷史數字。
In quarter two 2026, this reporting change reduced comparable net sales by EUR66 million and increased the comparable operating profit by EUR13 million. It also led to minor adjustments in cost allocations between Network Infrastructure and Mobile Infrastructure with an impact of approximately EUR1 million to EUR2 million per quarter.
在 2026 年第二季,這項報導變更使可比淨銷售額減少 6,600 萬歐元,並使可比營業利益增加 1,300 萬歐元。同時也導致網路基礎設施與行動基礎設施之間的成本分攤出現些微調整,每季影響約 100 萬至 200 萬歐元。
Turning to performance. Net sales grew 9% in the quarter, supported mainly by Network Infrastructure. Gross profit was EUR2.2 billion, and gross margin increased 70 basis points to 46%. The margin expansion was driven by Network Infrastructure and particularly Optical Networks, where we continue to benefit from both strong demand and the integration of Infinera.
接著談表現。本季淨銷售額成長 9%,主要由網路基礎設施帶動。毛利為 22 億歐元,毛利率上升 70 個基點至 46%。毛利率擴張由網路基礎設施所驅動,尤其是光網路;我們持續受惠於強勁需求以及 Infinera 的整合。
Operating profit was EUR434 million, and operating margin increased 70 basis points to 9%. The quarter benefited from some software revenue recognition coming in in quarter two instead of quarter three. We also incurred higher stock-based compensation expense which represented 150 basis points headwind to our operating margin in quarter two year-on-year, and this was driven by Nokia's share price increase, an increase in the program and the issuance happening earlier in this year.
營業利益為 4.34 億歐元,營業利益率上升 70 個基點至 9%。本季受惠於部分軟體收入認列從第三季提前至第二季。我們也產生較高的股票基礎薪酬費用,與去年同期相比,對第二季營業利益率造成 150 個基點的不利影響;這主要由 Nokia 股價上升、計畫規模增加,以及今年較早進行的發放所驅動。
Financial income and expenses benefited from a positive venture fund revaluation during the quarter, which supported both net profit and EPS, earnings per share. Free cash flow was negative EUR732 million. And as you know, quarter two is typically the weakest quarter for cash generation as employee cash incentives are paid in quarter two. We also saw some increase in working capital during the quarter. We ended quarter two with a net cash position of EUR2.8 billion, maintaining a strong balance sheet and significant financial flexibility.
本季財務收入與費用受惠於創投基金正向重估,進而支撐淨利與 EPS(每股盈餘)。自由現金流為負 7.32 億歐元。如各位所知,第二季通常是現金創造最弱的一季,因為員工現金獎勵在第二季支付。本季我們也看到營運資金有所增加。第二季末我們的淨現金部位為 28 億歐元,維持強健的資產負債表與顯著的財務彈性。
Let me now turn to Network Infrastructure. Net sales grew 12% in the quarter, reflecting continued strength across the business. Optical Networks grew 20%, and growth was supported by continued demand from AI and Cloud customers, but we also saw healthy demand from telecom customers investing in transport infrastructure.
接下來談網路基礎設施。本季淨銷售額成長 12%,反映業務各面向持續強勁。光網路成長 20%,成長動能來自 AI 與雲端客戶的持續需求,同時我們也看到電信客戶在傳輸基礎設施投資方面的健康需求。
IP Networks grew 16%. The strong order momentum that began in the second half of 2025 is now translating into revenue growth. Fixed Networks declined 2%. The areas where we are prioritizing investment performed well. Optical line terminal sales grew 18%, while O&T sales declined 16% as we continue to focus on higher-value parts of the portfolio.
IP 網路成長 16%。自 2025 年下半年開始的強勁訂單動能,現正轉化為營收成長。固定網路下滑 2%。我們優先投資的領域表現良好。光纖線路終端(OLT)銷售成長 18%,而 O&T 銷售下滑 16%,因我們持續聚焦於產品組合中更高價值的部分。
Gross margin increased 240 basis points to 42.7%. This improvement was driven by three factors. First, we benefited from a higher scale as revenue increased; second, we continued to realize synergies from the Infinera acquisition; and third, we saw more favorable mix within Fixed Networks. The gross margin improvement was partially offset by growth investments we are making across Optical Networks and IP Networks as we position ourselves to capture the long-term opportunity in AI infrastructure. And finally, operating margin increased 170 basis points to 8.1%.
毛利率上升 240 個基點至 42.7%。此改善由三項因素驅動。第一,隨著營收增加,我們受惠於規模提升;第二,我們持續實現 Infinera 併購帶來的綜效;第三,我們在固定網路內部看到更有利的產品組合。毛利率改善部分被我們在光網路與 IP 網路的成長投資所抵銷,因我們正定位以掌握 AI 基礎設施的長期機會。最後,營業利益率上升 170 個基點至 8.1%。
And turning to Mobile Infrastructure. Net sales grew 7% in the quarter, Core Software grew 1%, Radio Networks 7% and Technology Standards increased 15%. And Technology Standards benefited from signing a few new agreements during the quarter and included some catch-up revenue recognition. Looking at the full year, we continue to expect Technology Standards to deliver a similar level of sales and profitability as in 2025.
再來看行動基礎設施。本季淨銷售額成長 7%,其中核心軟體成長 1%、無線電網路成長 7%,技術標準成長 15%。技術標準受惠於本季簽署數項新協議,並包含部分追溯性收入認列。就全年而言,我們仍預期技術標準將交出與 2025 年相近的銷售與獲利水準。
Gross margin was 49.3%, which was somewhat better than we expected entering the quarter. And the main driver was a higher contribution from software sales as some revenue were expected in quarter three ended up benefiting quarter two gross margin. Looking ahead, because of the earlier software revenue phasing, we currently expect Mobile Infrastructure gross margin in quarter three to be closer to 44% to 46%, reflecting a lower software contribution before improving again in quarter four, in line with normal seasonality. And operating profit was stable year-on-year.
毛利率為 49.3%,略優於我們在進入本季時的預期。主要驅動因素是軟體銷售貢獻較高,因原本預期在第三季認列的部分收入,最終對第二季毛利率帶來助益。展望未來,由於軟體收入提前入帳的時點影響,我們目前預期第三季行動基礎設施毛利率將更接近 44% 至 46%,反映軟體貢獻較低,之後在第四季將依正常季節性再度改善。營業利益與去年同期持平。
Looking at sales by customer segment. AI and Cloud was again the fastest-growing segment, with net sales increasing 105% year-on-year. Growth was broad-based across both Optical and IP Networks. Telecom sales increased 4%, while technology licensing grew 15%. And we remain optimistic about the long-term AI and Cloud opportunity and continue to see strong customer demand. At the same time, our expectations for the telecom market remain mostly unchanged.
按客戶區隔來看銷售。AI 與雲端再次是成長最快的區隔,淨銷售額年增 105%。成長動能同時來自光網路與 IP 網路,且基礎廣泛。電信銷售成長 4%,而技術授權成長 15%。我們對 AI 與雲端的長期機會仍保持樂觀,並持續看到強勁的客戶需求。同時,我們對電信市場的預期大致維持不變。
Turning to restructuring and integration costs. First, we are on track to complete our 2023-2026 restructuring program this year and achieved EUR1.2 billion in gross cost savings. The second area is the integration of our Chinese operations into Nokia's global operating model after taking full ownership at the end of 2025.
接著談重組與整合成本。首先,我們正按計畫在今年完成 2023-2026 年重組計畫,並已實現 12 億歐元的毛成本節省。第二個領域是在 2025 年底取得完全持股後,將我們在中國的營運整合至諾基亞的全球營運模式。
As we discussed previously, we continue to adjust our operating structure to reflect market conditions and improve competitiveness. As a reminder, this program was expected to achieve EUR200 million in cost synergies with onetime charges of between EUR350 million and EUR400 million over two- to three-year period. We now expect to recognize approximately EUR350 million of the planned onetime charges by the end of 2026 as we accelerated the integration to complete it within two years.
如同我們先前討論的,我們持續調整營運架構以反映市場狀況並提升競爭力。提醒一下,該計畫原預期可實現 2 億歐元的成本綜效,並在兩到三年期間產生一次性費用 3.5 億至 4 億歐元。由於我們加速整合以在兩年內完成,我們現在預期在 2026 年底前認列約 3.5 億歐元的既定一次性費用。
And the third area is a set of new efficiency progress, mainly impacting Europe. These programs are expected to lead to restructuring charges of EUR200 million in 2026. These actions are focused on simplifying the organization, improving productivity, and ensuring resources are aligned with our strategic priorities. Overall, we expect restructuring charges of approximately EUR800 million in 2026.
第三個領域是一系列新的效率推進措施,主要影響歐洲。這些計畫預期將在 2026 年導致 2 億歐元的重組費用。這些行動聚焦於簡化組織、提升生產力,並確保資源與我們的策略優先事項一致。整體而言,我們預期 2026 年的重組費用約為 8 億歐元。
Then let's go to cash. With respect to cash flow, the quarter followed the normal seasonality we typically see in quarter two. The largest impact was the payment of annual employee incentives related to 2025 performance. We also saw some working capital buildup during the quarter, reflecting the continued growth of the business. Despite these seasonal factors, our overall cash generation profile remains unchanged.
接著談現金。就現金流而言,本季呈現我們通常在第二季看到的正常季節性。影響最大的是支付與 2025 年績效相關的年度員工獎勵金。我們也看到本季營運資金有所增加,反映業務持續成長。儘管有這些季節性因素,我們整體的現金創造輪廓仍維持不變。
Considering some of the increased restructuring costs and as we make some investments in working capital to prepare for growth, we now expect to track towards the low end of our free cash flow conversion assumption of 55% to 75%.
考量部分增加的重組成本,以及我們為了成長準備而在營運資金上進行一些投資,我們現在預期將朝向自由現金流轉換率假設 55% 至 75% 的區間下緣。
And finally, turning to our outlook. There is no operational change to our comparable operating profit guidance. The only adjustment is the technical change resulting from the move of fixed-line access and enterprise campus edge into discontinued operations. And we continue to track somewhat above the midpoint of our operating profit range.
最後,談談我們的展望。我們的可比營業利益指引在營運面沒有變動。唯一的調整是技術性變更,源於將固定線路接取與企業園區邊緣業務移入停業部門。我們仍持續略高於營業利益區間的中點水準。
Looking at quarter three, specifically, we currently assume a sequential increase in net sales of between 3% and 7%. For operating profit, we currently expect a result broadly similar to quarter two due to the phasing of software sales in Mobile Infrastructure between quarter two and quarter three, followed by a meaningful improvement in quarter four. And this is a combination of the normal seasonality we see in our telco business and the contribution from year-on-year growth in AI and Cloud sales.
就第三季而言,我們目前假設淨銷售額將較前一季增加 3% 至 7%。在營業利益方面,由於行動基礎設施(Mobile Infrastructure)軟體銷售在第二季與第三季之間的時點分配,我們目前預期結果大致與第二季相近,之後在第四季將有顯著改善。這是我們電信業務正常季節性,以及 AI 與雲端銷售年增所帶來貢獻的綜合結果。
Aside from the discontinued operations adjustment, our outlook assumptions remain largely unchanged. The demand environment remains supportive, and we allocate capital where we see the strongest opportunities for long-term growth while maintaining discipline on profitability and cash generation.
除停業部門的調整外,我們的展望假設大致維持不變。需求環境仍具支撐力,我們會將資本配置在我們看到最強的長期成長機會之處,同時維持對獲利能力與現金創造的紀律。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Justin and Marco. (Event Instructions) Operator, could you please give the instructions?
謝謝你,Justin 和 Marco。(活動指示) 接線員,請提供指示好嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) I will now hand the call back to David Mulholland, Head of Investor Relations for the Q&A.
(接線員指示) 我現在把電話交回給投資人關係主管 David Mulholland 進行問答。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Terence Tsui, Morgan Stanley.
Terence Tsui,摩根士丹利。
Terence Tsui - Analyst
Terence Tsui - Analyst
I had a question around capacity and particularly around the four new DSPs planned by the end of 2027. So this is actually a big ramp-up compared to the previous run rate. Can you give us some milestones to lookout for and reassurance that this could be achieved?
我有一個關於產能的問題,特別是到 2027 年底規劃推出的四款新 DSP。相較於先前的運行速度,這其實是一次很大的拉升。你們能否提供一些值得關注的里程碑,並讓我們放心這是可以達成的?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Sure, Terence. I mean, I think, first of all, we talked about these going into customer trial in '27 and then become commercially available towards the end of '27. I think the thing I would just emphasize and remind you of on this is that Nokia and Infinera previously were each building two DSPs individually. So collectively, a total of four DSPs. One of the decisions we made, and I've talked about this a bit as we saw the growth opportunity emerging in optical was to maintain the DSP team as is versus reducing them.
當然可以,Terence。我的意思是,首先,我們談過這些會在 2027 年進入客戶試用,並在 2027 年底左右開始商用供應。我想我在這裡要強調並提醒的是,諾基亞與 Infinera 先前各自都在獨立開發兩款 DSP。因此合計一共是四款 DSP。我們做出的其中一項決策——我也稍微談過——是在看到光學領域的成長機會浮現時,選擇維持 DSP 團隊規模不變,而不是縮減。
And the reason we did that was we felt quite strongly in spending time with our customers that we could actually deliver more differentiated products to them with four unique DSPs versus the traditional two that we had been delivering in each company independently. And that laid out and supported the road map that we launched at OFC in March, and I touched on that a bit in last quarter's call.
我們之所以這麼做,是因為在與客戶深入交流後,我們相當堅信:相較於傳統的兩款 DSP,若能提供四款各具特色的 DSP,我們其實能交付更具差異化的產品給客戶。這也奠定並支撐了我們在 3 月 OFC 發表的產品路線圖,我在上一季的電話會議中也稍微提到過。
So the view here is that we think this gives us better market coverage aligned to where the market is evolving, specifically given the amount of investment we're seeing across the different layers of optical fabric from the scale across fabric to what we see in data center interconnect to metro network to long-haul transport. So across all of that, we've got -- we think we have a much better portfolio in 2027 to address each of the unique evolving solutions than we would have had if we had only kept two versions.
因此我們的看法是,鑑於我們看到市場在光學網狀(optical fabric)不同層級的投資規模——從 scale-across fabric、資料中心互連(data center interconnect)、都會網路(metro network)到長途傳輸(long-haul transport)——我們認為這能讓我們的市場覆蓋更貼近市場演進方向。綜合而言,我們在 2027 年將擁有更好的產品組合,能因應各種獨特且持續演進的解決方案;若只保留兩個版本,將不如現在的配置。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Do you have a follow-up, Terence?
Terence,你有追問嗎?
Terence Tsui - Analyst
Terence Tsui - Analyst
A real quick follow-up on the comments around the order book potentially being lumpy. Do you still expect like an upward to try over the longer term from these levels, albeit it would come along the way?
針對你提到訂單簿可能會有波動,我有個很快的追問。你們是否仍預期從目前水準來看,長期趨勢會向上,只是過程中會有起伏?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. Look, I think two things about this quarter's order book. I mean, obviously, if you do the book-to-bill on this, it's a significant jump up. So I think for me, that's a data point around a little bit of lumpiness, but the other is the elongation of the orders, which we we've been talking about expecting and we're seeing here. So I think we have to look at it in both those dimensions.
是的。我認為本季訂單簿有兩點值得注意。很明顯地,如果你用接單出貨比(book-to-bill)來看,這是一個顯著的跳升。所以對我而言,這是一個顯示有些波動性的數據點;但另一點是訂單交期拉長——我們一直在談這是我們預期會發生的,而我們也在這裡看到了。因此我認為我們必須從這兩個面向一起看。
And the way I think about orders is I think about orders in a period of time, right? Because it's easy to give you a headline number and then say, well, the next question is, is that over quarter period, a 4-quarter period, an 8-quarter, 12-quarter, et cetera? And so for me, that's really where we're focused, is not necessarily on are we getting big order pops consistently, but rather are we seeing the order momentum grow as we look at it over a time period. And right now, what we're seeing is continued growth and continued demand in the market.
而我看待訂單的方式,是把訂單放在一段期間內來看,對吧?因為很容易給你一個頭條數字,接著下一個問題就是:那是以一季、四季、八季、十二季等等的期間來衡量?所以對我而言,我們真正聚焦的是:不一定是我們是否持續拿到很大的單季訂單跳升,而是當我們以一段時間來看時,訂單動能是否在成長。而目前我們看到的是市場持續成長、需求持續存在。
And as I said in my comments is still largely driven by AI and Cloud, particularly around scale across and data center interconnect. And then we're starting to see some emerging growth. We saw some of it in sales this year in our telco customer base. And we believe that's also tied to AI demand.
而且如我在評論中所說,這仍主要由 AI 與雲端所驅動,特別是在 scale-across 與資料中心互連方面。接著我們也開始看到一些新興成長。今年我們在電信客戶基礎的銷售中已看到部分跡象。我們相信這也與 AI 需求相關。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Simon Leopold, Raymond James.
Simon Leopold,Raymond James。
Simon Leopold - Analyst
Simon Leopold - Analyst
I wanted to see if you could rank order and characterize supply chain risk. And I'm thinking about issues like memory printed circuit boards and even indium phosphide wafers. Maybe a particular focus on that latter one, the wafers, given the factory expansion, whether or not you can get the material? And then I've got a quick follow-up after.
我想請你們能否按重要性排序並描述供應鏈風險。我想到的議題包括記憶體、印刷電路板,甚至磷化銦(indium phosphide)晶圓。也許可以特別聚焦在後者晶圓,考量到工廠擴產,你們是否能取得足夠材料?另外我還有一個簡短的追問。
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Sure. Look, I think the most -- if I think about the supply chain risks or the time that we're spending in this, first of all, as you rightly point out, it's broad-based, right? So I think we talk a lot about memory. And memory is significant, just given the amount of demand that is in the market. I think this has been talked about quite a bit across multiple companies and multiple parts of this ecosystem.
當然。你看,我認為最——如果我思考供應鏈風險或我們在這件事上花的時間,首先,正如你正確指出的,這是廣泛性的,對吧?所以我想我們談了很多關於記憶體。而記憶體很關鍵,主要是因為市場上的需求量很大。我認為這點在多家公司以及這個生態系的多個環節都已經被談論得相當多了。
So there's clearly constraints there. And then obviously, the pricing -- the significant change in pricing driven by that shortage which, again, has been talked about very broadly across the tech ecosystem. So that's probably the one that we see as most significant.
所以那裡顯然存在供給限制。然後很明顯,價格——由於短缺所驅動的顯著價格變動,而這同樣也已在整個科技生態系中被非常廣泛地討論。所以那大概是我們認為最顯著的一項。
Now we talked about this last quarter. I think I don't need to repeat what I said last quarter, but maybe briefly. Our focus is on securing supply, simplifying our designs, looking at where we can reduce scope wherever possible on our designs. And of course, then passing that on to customers. And I think if you look at what we said last quarter, there were some companies with us last quarter. It seems like more companies have joined us in some of the more recent earnings call now making that same comment.
我們在上一季談過這個。我想我不需要重複我上一季說過的話,但簡要說一下。我們的重點是確保供應、簡化我們的設計,並檢視在設計上哪裡能在可能的情況下縮減範圍。當然,接著把這些影響轉嫁給客戶。而且我想如果你看我們上一季說的,上一季有一些公司跟我們一起提到這點。看起來現在在最近幾次財報電話會議中,有更多公司加入我們,開始發表同樣的評論。
The key thing for me here is also really talking to our customers. Not the AI and Cloud customers, they understand this well, but really making sure our telco, our mission-critical customers understand that we have elongated lead times, which means better visibility, better planning, and something that we need to team with them on. So particularly important in that regard. And then as you touched on, there's a broad base across the board.
對我來說,這裡的關鍵也在於與我們的客戶溝通。不是 AI 與雲端客戶——他們很了解這點——而是要確保我們的電信客戶、我們的關鍵任務型客戶理解:我們的交期已經拉長,這意味著需要更好的可視性、更好的規劃,以及我們需要與他們協作的事情。所以在這方面特別重要。然後如你提到的,這是全面性的、各方面都受到影響。
On the indium phosphide question you asked, Simon, the comment I'll make is this new fab is really looking at -- is looking at coming online probably earliest in '29. And if you think about our capacity, we've got significant jump up with San Jose coming, call it, '27 as it ramps volume, right, manufacturing later this year or volume manufacturing later this year. So '27, it ramps, then we kind of line up for a '29 ramp in incremental capacity. As you know, that's kind of the time lines that you have to take with these investments.
關於你問的磷化銦(indium phosphide)問題,Simon,我要說的是:這座新晶圓廠真正著眼於——大概最早會在 2029 年上線。如果你看我們的產能,隨著聖荷西(San Jose)廠的加入,我們會有顯著的跳升,大概在 2027 年,隨著產量爬坡——也就是今年稍晚開始製造,或今年稍晚開始量產。所以 2027 年爬坡,接著我們大致會銜接到 2029 年新增產能的爬坡。如你所知,這類投資的時間線大概就是必須這樣看。
And I think as we're looking at it, we're looking out at different solutions to get indium phosphide capacity at that time. That's obviously an industry issue, though, it's something that all of us in the industry need to enable, and it's something that I think collectively, we need to solve even across the ecosystem.
而且我想在我們評估時,我們也在尋找不同的解決方案,以便在那個時間點取得磷化銦產能。但那顯然是整個產業的議題,是我們產業裡所有人都需要促成的事情;我也認為我們需要集體地、甚至跨整個生態系一起把它解決。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Simon, do you have a follow-up?
Simon,你有追問嗎?
Simon Leopold - Analyst
Simon Leopold - Analyst
Yeah. I wanted to see if maybe you could offer us your view on the scale across market and your ambitions -- Nokia's ambitions for this particular application, considering Optical and IP routing?
有。我想看看你是否能分享你對「跨市場擴展」(scale across)的規模觀點,以及你們的企圖——也就是 Nokia 在這個特定應用上的企圖,考量到光傳輸(Optical)與 IP 路由?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think, first of all, Simon, I think there's a lot of I'm going to be a little technical, but scale across is technically was talking about data centers within a given campus area that were strung together as an AI factory. And one of the things I talked about last -- on the last call was the demand we're seeing in data center interconnect. So my point in saying that is some of what we're seeing is just increased data center interconnect.
是。是,當然。我的意思是,首先,Simon,我會稍微技術性一點:所謂「跨市場擴展」(scale across)在技術上談的是同一個園區範圍內、彼此串接的資料中心,把它們連成一座 AI 工廠。而我在上一次——上一通電話會議中談到的一件事,是我們在資料中心互連(data center interconnect)看到的需求。所以我這樣說的重點是:我們看到的一部分其實就是資料中心互連的增加。
Now you can call it scale across or some folks may want to label it one way or another. To me, they're very different. They're complementary and very important applications. Because one is back-end connectivity, which is providing connectivity to expand the back end for scale out, which is the scale of cost fabric. The other is data center interconnect providing higher bandwidth between data centers over a long haul on the front end. Both of those have a routing element.
你可以稱它為「跨市場擴展」,或有些人可能想用不同方式來標示它。對我而言,它們是非常不同的。它們彼此互補,而且都是非常重要的應用。因為其中一個是後端連接性,用來提供連接以擴展後端、支援 scale out,也就是所謂的 scale of cost fabric。另一個是資料中心互連,在前端透過長距離連線在資料中心之間提供更高頻寬。這兩者都包含路由的要素。
Obviously, the data center interconnect has a very significant demand growth in routing. And if you look at our opportunity and why we're talking about growth and in both IP and optical, it's because we're seeing growth in both of those elements. So they are complementary they are reinforcing.
很明顯,資料中心互連在路由方面有非常顯著的需求成長。如果你看我們的機會,以及為什麼我們在 IP 與光傳輸兩方面都在談成長,是因為我們在這兩個要素上都看到成長。所以它們是互補的、彼此強化的。
The other thing I'll say is, it's not limited to that. We are seeing some traction in back -- in some of the back-end switching. It's on a limited basis, obviously, without getting into all the market dynamics there. But all of this is encouraging in terms of our focus in this area and the traction we're starting to make.
我還要補充的是,這不僅限於那個領域。我們也在後——在一些後端交換(switching)方面看到一些進展。當然是在有限的範圍內,且不深入談所有市場動態。但就我們在這個領域的聚焦,以及我們開始取得的進展而言,這些都令人鼓舞。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Sami Sarkamies, Danske Bank.
Sami Sarkamies,丹斯克銀行(Danske Bank)。
Sami Sarkamies - Analyst
Sami Sarkamies - Analyst
My question would be on your supply capability in Optical Networks. Are you fully constrained? Or have you been able to build any inventory during the first half of the year?
我的問題是關於你們在光網路(Optical Networks)的供應能力。你們是否完全受限?或者你們在上半年是否有能力建立任何庫存?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I would say, Sami, it's a good question. There are always pockets think of legacy products and those areas where we probably have some supply. But in general, I would think of us as being constrained, right? When we talk about lead times elongating it's because we're seeing constraints and particularly on the leading edge products.
是。我會說,Sami,這是個好問題。總會有一些區塊——想像一下舊世代產品(legacy products)以及那些領域——我們可能有一些供應。但整體而言,我會把我們視為受限的,對吧?當我們談到交期拉長,是因為我們看到供應限制,尤其是在最先進的產品上。
And by the way, I don't think we're unique in that. I think that's -- if you look at our ecosystem, again, I think you see the constraints and you see that across the component suppliers or some of our peers, et cetera. So obviously, we're working aggressively on that and maximizing the supply. But as I've said as well, if you look at our forecast, what we've included in our forecast is the demand that we have line of sight to shipping and we recognize even that has some risk because that assumes continuity of supply, no disruptions. Everything goes perfectly.
順帶一提,我不認為這是我們獨有的情況。我想——如果你看我們的生態系,再次地,你會看到這些限制,而且你會在元件供應商或我們的一些同業等各處都看到。所以很明顯,我們正積極地處理並把供應最大化。但如我也說過,如果你看我們的預測,我們納入預測的是我們有把握能出貨的那部分需求;而我們也承認,即便如此仍有一些風險,因為那假設供應能持續、不會中斷。一切都進行得完美無缺。
So when we're thinking about this, we're thinking about it from a constraint perspective, aligned to what we have line of sight to in supply. But absolutely, if there was more supply, I think we'd probably generate more revenue.
所以當我們思考這件事時,我們是從「受限」的角度來思考,並與我們在供應端可見、可掌握的範圍對齊。但絕對地,如果供應更多,我想我們可能會創造更多營收。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Did you have a follow-up, Sami?
Sami,你有追問嗎?
Sami Sarkamies - Analyst
Sami Sarkamies - Analyst
Yeah. Regarding radio networks, just curious, do you think you are currently gaining share? You had a 5% organic growth in the first half of the year I think that's a bit more than your main European rival is having or is it just like timing?
有。關於無線網路(radio networks),我只是好奇,你覺得你們目前是否正在提升市占?你們上半年有 5% 的有機成長,我想這比你們主要的歐洲競爭對手的表現還要好一些——還是這只是時點因素?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. My view on this, Sami, is it's timing. We talked about -- actually, Marco talked about the timing around the software revenue recognition we had in Q2, which is tied to our radio software platforms. So I would call this timing.
是。我對此的看法,Sami,是時點因素。我們談到——其實 Marco 談到我們在第二季的軟體營收認列時點,而那與我們的無線軟體平台相關。所以我會把這稱為時點因素。
I also think looking at market share on a quarterly basis in this industry is super challenging to get any kind of good signal. I think you have to look at it certainly on an annual basis.
我也認為,在這個產業以季度為基礎來看市占率,要取得任何有用的訊號都非常困難。我認為你必須至少以年度為基礎來觀察。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Alex Duval, Goldman Sachs.
Alex Duval,高盛。
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Alexander Duval - Analyst
You talked about further progress in AI-RAN. I wondered if you could talk a bit about the time line this benefiting Nokia in terms of revenue and competitive position, and what your discussions with telco are suggesting in that area?
你提到在 AI-RAN 方面有進一步進展。我想請你談談這對諾基亞在營收與競爭地位上帶來效益的時間表,以及你們與電信業者的討論在這個領域透露了哪些訊息?
And secondly, back to the AI side, I wondered if you could give an update on switching and the progress you make there? Could you help us understand the latest thoughts on switching design-ins and when we should expect orders and revenue momentum, given the progress you're delivering?
第二個問題回到 AI 這一側,我想請你更新一下交換器(switching)以及你們在那裡的進展?鑑於你們正在交付的進展,你能否協助我們理解最新對交換器導入設計(design-in)的看法,以及我們應該何時期待訂單與營收動能?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Let me answer the second one first. In terms of the switching design wins, we talked about this a little bit last quarter. We said we expect -- we expected orders this year. We saw a lot of those orders come in Q2. Obviously, as you know, in the design win process, you start small, you get traction, and then you build on top of that as you validate and execute for performance.
我先回答第二個問題。就交換器的設計導入勝出(design win)而言,我們上季已稍微談過。我們說過我們預期今年會有訂單。我們在第二季看到其中很多訂單進來。當然,如你所知,在 design win 的流程中,你一開始規模較小,取得進展,然後在你驗證並就效能執行到位後,再在此基礎上擴大。
So we're continuing to drive that across a number of customers. Obviously, we're pleased with the progress we had in Q2. And then can you just repeat your first question?
所以我們正持續在多家客戶中推動這件事。顯然,我們對第二季的進展感到滿意。那你可以再重複一下你的第一個問題嗎?
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Yeah, absolutely, Justin. It was just -- you had mentioned further progress on AI-RAN. I'm just curious how you think about the customer feedback and the timelines for that impacting your revenues?
好的,當然可以,Justin。就是——你提到 AI-RAN 有進一步進展。我只是好奇你如何看待客戶回饋,以及這對你們營收產生影響的時間表?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I mean, look, I think basically, Alex, everything is consistent with what we've said. Pilots at the end of '26 commercially available in '27. Obviously, we'd anticipate more significant volume going into '28, and that continues to be our expectation in terms of AI-RAN.
是的。我的意思是,Alex,基本上,一切都與我們先前所說的一致。在 2026 年底進行試點,並於 2027 年商用上市。顯然,我們預期在 2028 年會有更顯著的量能,這仍然是我們對 AI-RAN 的預期。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Ulrich Rathe, Bernstein.
Ulrich Rathe,Bernstein。
Ulrich Rathe - Equity Analyst
Ulrich Rathe - Equity Analyst
So I wanted to come back to the very strong AI-Cloud order intake, put it into perspective already with regards to the longer the elongation of the order book, as you call it. I was wondering, in supply-constrained markets, we often do see double ordering, which does create a full signal for suppliers such as Nokia. How do you see this risk? Are there any specific reasons why this would be an unlikely factor for Nokia?
我想回到非常強勁的 AI-Cloud 訂單流入,並把它放在你所稱的訂單簿拉長(elongation of the order book)的脈絡下來看。我想問的是,在供應受限的市場中,我們常常會看到重複下單(double ordering),這會為像諾基亞這樣的供應商造成錯誤訊號。你怎麼看待這個風險?是否有任何特定原因,使得這不太可能成為諾基亞的因素?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. Look, I think, first of all, if you think about the customers -- the level of sophistication and the customers that are placing these orders, we get to step back and ask what the incentive is for double ordering. I've absolutely seen this much like you in supply-constrained markets that I've worked in, in the past, and it's particularly prevalent in markets where you're focused on enterprise customers where you've got channels because the customers tend to diversify and look for allocation.
是的。你看,我認為首先,如果你想到客戶——下這些訂單的客戶的成熟度與水準,我們可以退一步問:重複下單的誘因是什麼。我過去在供應受限的市場工作時,確實也像你一樣看過這種情況,而且在你聚焦企業客戶、又有通路的市場中特別常見,因為客戶往往會分散採購、尋求配額分配。
But in this environment, the thing that I would flag is for one of these customers to come in and say, I'm going to double order with you when ultimately, that goes back to supply of leading-edge silicon manufacturing capacity on optical components that they're -- they can actively inspect and we transparently share the progress. The question for them would be what does it do in terms of incentives.
但在這個環境下,我想提醒的是:若其中一位客戶進來說「我要跟你重複下單」,而最終這又回到光學元件所需的先進矽製造產能供給——他們可以主動檢視,而我們也透明分享進度——那對他們而言,問題會是這在誘因上到底能帶來什麼。
The other thing I would say is we're -- obviously, as we're making commitments on a longer-term basis, we're expecting those commitments from customers as well.
另外我想說的是,當我們——顯然——在較長期的基礎上做出承諾時,我們也期待客戶同樣給出這些承諾。
Ulrich Rathe - Equity Analyst
Ulrich Rathe - Equity Analyst
That's helpful. If I may follow up with one clarification. What would you call a normal length for an order book? Is that essentially 100% of the orders within the next 12 months? Because you highlighted sort of the difference with half of the revenues, is 12 months for 100%, quote-unquote, normal here or not?
這很有幫助。如果可以的話,我想追問一點釐清。你會把訂單簿的正常長度稱為多少?是否基本上是 100% 的訂單都在未來 12 個月內?因為你強調了大約一半營收的差異,所以這裡所謂「正常」是指 12 個月涵蓋 100% 嗎,還是不是?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. Ulrich, that's a good question. So I think typically, we have seen orders within 12 months in our customer base. Now again, there's two factors to this. Obviously, one is the growing demand is the fact that AI and Cloud is a new segment for us, right?
是的。Ulrich,這是個好問題。我認為一般而言,我們在客戶群中看到的訂單通常是在 12 個月內。不過再說一次,這裡有兩個因素。顯然其一是需求成長,以及 AI 與 Cloud 對我們而言是一個新區隔,對吧?
So I would say we've had less exposure to this, obviously, seasonally less exposure to this in the past. And then the second thing is obviously the supply constraint. So I think both of those are factors. But if you think about our traditional business with telco customer -- heavily concentrated with telco customers and then obviously some in mission-critical those orders, we may get -- win a contract award, but we would not -- we would see orders typically within 12 months, and that's really the shift.
所以我會說,我們過去對這一塊的曝險較少,顯然在季節性上過去也較少曝險。第二個因素顯然是供應受限。所以我認為這兩者都是因素。但如果你看我們傳統業務——以電信客戶為主,高度集中在電信客戶,另外在關鍵任務(mission-critical)也有一些——那些訂單,我們可能會——贏得一個合約授予,但我們通常會在 12 個月內看到訂單,而這就是轉變所在。
And that's why when I talk about the -- our telco customer base, one of the conversations we're having with those customers is getting more visibility going forward because they're also used to giving us fairly short term within 12 months visibility, and we need to be planning even further.
這也是為什麼當我談到——我們的電信客戶基礎時,我們與這些客戶正在進行的其中一個對話,是希望未來能取得更高的可視性,因為他們也習慣只給我們相當短期、在 12 個月內的可視性,而我們需要做更長期的規劃。
And so this is something that we're -- with all of our sales teams having this conversation to make sure that we're getting better visibility, not because it implies a commitment, but because the risks given the supply constraints in the industry are. We don't want to miss any of their deliveries while we continue to support them given their importance to us as well as customers.
因此,這是我們——與所有銷售團隊都在進行的對話,以確保我們取得更好的可視性;不是因為這代表一項承諾,而是因為在產業供應受限的情況下風險確實存在。我們不希望在持續支持他們交付的同時,錯過任何他們的交貨,因為他們對我們很重要,也是我們的重要客戶。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Jakob Bluestone, BNP Paribas.
Jakob Bluestone,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Jakob Bluestone - Analyst
Jakob Bluestone - Analyst
You're obviously ramping up in terms of AI and Cloud revenues. I guess we're not yet seeing it in terms of margins. And I guess my question is just when -- and I appreciate that's obviously, as these businesses scale, margins will go up. And particularly on the IP side, you're just sort of starting to scale now. But just be interested how long do you think it actually takes before these revenues become materially accretive?
你們顯然正在拉升 AI 與 Cloud 的營收。我想我們在毛利率上還沒有看到反映。我的問題是:何時——我理解這顯然是隨著這些業務規模擴大,利潤率會上升。尤其在 IP 這一側,你們現在才剛開始放量。但我想了解的是,你認為需要多久,這些營收才會對獲利產生實質性的增益(materially accretive)?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I think two things, Jacob. So one is gross margi,n and then the other is operating leverage, right? And as we talked about in Capital Markets Day, we're doing a lot of work at the front end of the three-year period to really set the company up to become more efficient, more nimble, more scalable and get the operating leverage as we drive growth in the business. So that's a key focus.
是的。我認為有兩件事,Jacob。一個是毛利率,另一個是營運槓桿,對吧?正如我們在資本市場日所談到的,我們在三年期的前段做了大量工作,真正讓公司變得更有效率、更敏捷、更可擴展,並在推動業務成長時取得營運槓桿。所以這是關鍵重點。
And we talked about that by nature, that would be a little bit back-end loaded. Now like I said, I'm very pleased with the progress we're making. And obviously, with the demand accelerating higher than what we said at Capital Markets Day, we've got optimism on progress there that will continue to improve.
而我們也談到,從本質上來說,這會比較偏向後段才顯現。不過如我所說,我對我們正在取得的進展非常滿意。而且顯然,隨著需求加速高於我們在資本市場日所說的水準,我們對那方面的進展抱持樂觀,並預期會持續改善。
On the other side, on the gross margin side, this is an area where I think we're dealing with just a lot of complexity in the mix. And this is a little bit of supply chain. This is also us -- we talked about the focus we're making in FN on exiting low-margin business. So some of those things are just playing through in the business, and you're not quite seeing a drop to the bottom line yet.
另一方面,在毛利率這一端,我認為我們正面對的是組合中相當多的複雜性。這其中有一部分是供應鏈因素。這也包括我們——我們談到在 FN 方面正聚焦於退出低毛利業務。因此,這些因素正在業務中逐步反映出來,但你還沒有真正看到它直接落到最終損益上。
But obviously, we're very clear on what we're anticipating. And based on the assumptions we shared at Capital Markets Day, and the progress that we're making ahead of those in terms of revenue growth.
但顯然,我們對於我們所預期的情況非常清楚。而且基於我們在資本市場日所分享的假設,以及我們在營收成長方面所取得、且領先於那些假設的進展。
Jakob Bluestone - Analyst
Jakob Bluestone - Analyst
Very clear. And if I can just ask a quick follow-up. Just -- I mean, you mentioned you've got several customers coming in on the IP side, I think you said. And I'd just be interested in understanding just sort of the level of concentration of that customer mix. I mean, would you say you're well represented across the different hyperscaler customers or would you say still a relatively narrow segment?
非常清楚。如果我可以再追問一個簡短的問題。就是——我的意思是,你提到在 IP 端有好幾個客戶正在導入,我想你是這麼說的。我想了解的是,這個客戶組合的集中度大概到什麼程度。也就是說,你會認為你們在不同的超大規模雲端客戶(hyperscaler)之間都有相當好的覆蓋,還是說目前仍然相對集中在較窄的一段?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I think we've talked about this a little bit before. It's fairly concentrated today. But that's the way you build the business, right? And so I think we've got very good partnerships and relationships across many of the AI and Cloud players, the hyperscalers. The focus right now is obviously on making sure where we do have demand that we're delivering it and we're continuing to innovate for those customers and then over time, obviously, expanding that footprint.
是的。我想我們之前也稍微談過這點。目前確實相當集中。但這就是建立業務的方式,對吧?因此我認為,我們與許多 AI 與雲端玩家、也就是超大規模業者,都建立了非常好的合作夥伴關係與合作關係。眼下的重點顯然是確保在我們確實有需求的地方能夠交付,並持續為這些客戶創新,然後隨著時間推進,當然也會擴大這個版圖。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Oliver Wong, Bank of America.
Oliver Wong,美國銀行(Bank of America)。
Oliver Wong - Analyst
Oliver Wong - Analyst
My first question is in terms of the EUR2.8 billion AI orders in the quarter, I understand that a significant portion pertains to some of your significant design wins in data center switches from last quarter. So I think it will be helpful if you could maybe try to quantify or guide us a little bit on kind of how much of the order or the total AI orders this quarter that kind of comprised just so that we can have a better sense of underlying optical related demand in the quarter.
我的第一個問題是關於本季 28 億歐元的 AI 訂單。我理解其中相當大一部分與你們上季在資料中心交換器方面的一些重大設計導入(design wins)有關。因此,如果你們能夠嘗試量化一下,或在指引上提供一些方向,說明本季訂單中、或本季 AI 訂單總額中,有多少是由那部分所構成,這樣我們就能更好地掌握本季光學相關需求的基本面。
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I mean, I think I would say it was -- it was driven by Optical and IP weighted towards optical, and that's probably not a surprise, given the momentum we're seeing right now in that market.
是的。我的意思是,我想我會說——它是由光學與 IP 所帶動,但權重偏向光學;考量到我們目前在那個市場看到的動能,這大概也不令人意外。
Oliver Wong - Analyst
Oliver Wong - Analyst
Got it. And a quick follow-up. In terms of within optical, you mentioned you discussed briefly about sort of skilled cross versus regular DCI. I was just wondering what the composition of demand is right now between the two?
了解。再追問一個。在光學之內,你提到你們簡短談到所謂 scale-out 與一般的 DCI(資料中心互連)。我想請問目前兩者之間的需求組成大概是怎樣?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I don't think we're breaking that out right now. I just would highlight that I think there's a significant amount of demand in DCI as well as scale across. And I think that gets -- I think the two kind of get either pushed together or maybe the DCI piece gets underappreciated. But that's certainly where, for us, we're seeing traction on both.
是的。我想我們目前不會把那個拆分揭露。我只想強調,我認為在 DCI 以及 scale-out 兩方面都有相當可觀的需求。而且我覺得這兩者有時會被放在一起看,或者 DCI 的那一塊可能被低估。但對我們而言,我們確實在兩邊都看到進展與牽引力。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Richard Kramer, Arete.
Richard Kramer,Arete。
Richard Kramer - Analyst
Richard Kramer - Analyst
Hey, Justin. My first question for you is on the AI-RAN transition, your customer installed base runs on Nokia proprietary silicon. Do you see the industry long term shifting away from that proprietary silicon-based set of solutions? And what are the implications for what is a EUR3 billion run rate of mobile R&D? And what will Networks margins for that transition?
嗨,Justin。我第一個問題是關於 AI-RAN 的轉型。你們客戶的既有裝機基礎是運行在 Nokia 的專有矽晶片上。你是否看到產業長期會從這種以專有矽晶片為基礎的解決方案組合轉移出去?這對於目前約 30 億歐元年化水準的行動通訊研發(R&D)意味著什麼?而且在這個轉型過程中,網路事業(Networks)的利潤率會如何?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Hey, Richard. So a couple of things on this. First of all, I've talked about this pretty openly. I think we're at a point where the industry has to transition. I think we look at what we see on AI-RAN and the spectral efficiency, by the way, we'll have special efficiency on our existing hardware. We'll have some improvements in software.
嗨,Richard。這裡有幾點。首先,我已經相當公開地談過這件事。我認為我們正處在產業必須轉型的時點。我們看 AI-RAN 所帶來的頻譜效率;順帶一提,我們在既有硬體上也會有頻譜效率的提升。我們在軟體上也會有一些改進。
But there'll be an order of magnitude below what we're talking about on AI-RAN. But the second thing here is that when you look at leading-edge silicon, you do the math on the cost of leading-edge silicon. And then, by the way, the supply constraints on leading-edge silicon, in my mind, this is a very clear industry shift that has to happen on the baseband, and that is a shift to general purpose silicon.
但那會比我們在 AI-RAN 所談的提升幅度低一個數量級。但第二點是,當你看最先進製程的矽晶片時,你去算一算最先進矽晶片的成本。再加上最先進矽晶片的供應限制,在我看來,這是一個非常明確、產業在基頻(baseband)端必須發生的轉變,也就是轉向通用型矽晶片。
And of course, we're partnered with NVIDIA in launching the AI-RAN solution. There are other players out there with general purpose-based solutions that are delivering virtualized RAN stacks. So I don't think we're alone in this move.
當然,我們與 NVIDIA 合作推出 AI-RAN 解決方案。市場上也有其他採用通用型方案的玩家,正在交付虛擬化 RAN 堆疊。所以我不認為只有我們在做這個轉變。
Fundamentally, as we think about the R&D in this space, this is the other thing I've touched on. When you look at this industry, there's two fundamental challenges and certainly from 4G and 5G. One of them is that the cost of capital, the return on invested capital in -- at an operator level in aggregate hasn't delivered, right, in terms of the investment, certainly looking at 5G, but also 4G.
從根本上來看,當我們思考這個領域的研發時,這也是我提過的另一點。你看這個產業,尤其從 4G 與 5G 以來,有兩個根本性的挑戰。其中之一是資本成本、以及整體營運商層級的投資資本報酬率(ROIC),就投資回報而言並沒有交出成果,對吧?特別是看 5G,但 4G 也是如此。
If you look at it from a supplier perspective, a technology provider like us, it also hasn't been acceptable on our side. And so I think we also have to look at how we shift investment and generate a better return on invested capital. Getting out of purpose silicon on the baseband is a step in that direction. And that's why we said that's the long-term direction.
如果從供應商角度來看,像我們這樣的技術提供者,在我們這一端也同樣不令人滿意。因此我認為我們也必須思考如何調整投資,並創造更好的投資資本報酬率。在基頻端退出專用矽晶片,是朝這個方向邁出的一步。這也是我們說那是長期方向的原因。
I think it's incredibly compelling when you can also say to customer. By the way, look at the better efficiency you can get on your hardware, which means you're going to get a better return on that hardware investment.
我認為,當你也能對客戶說:順帶一提,看看你在硬體上能獲得更好的效率,這意味著你在硬體投資上將得到更好的回報——這是非常有吸引力的。
And then the last thing we're saying is, by the way, when we deliver the hardware, that's not the best performance you're going to get. We'll continue to provide performance enhancements. As an industry, we've always added features, but the fact that we're now adding performance capabilities in our software stack, we think is a huge advantage.
然後我們最後要說的是:順帶一提,當我們交付硬體時,那並不是你能得到的最佳效能。我們會持續提供效能增強。作為一個產業,我們一直都在增加功能,但現在我們是在軟體堆疊中加入效能能力,我們認為這是一個巨大的優勢。
And the final point I'll make is, as we've talked about in the software stack, this is a single software stack. So we've got capabilities to optimize it for different hardware, including our legacy stack and of course, the NVIDIA GPUs that are now making -- they're now coming into our portfolio on the AI-RAN platform, but it's a single software stack. So we're getting a tremendous amount of leverage out of that stack. So this is right on that path.
我最後要補充的一點是,正如我們談到的軟體堆疊,這是一個單一的軟體堆疊。因此我們有能力針對不同硬體進行最佳化,包括我們的既有堆疊,當然也包括現在正——正在進入我們產品組合、用於 AI-RAN 平台的 NVIDIA GPU,但它是一個單一的軟體堆疊。因此我們從那個堆疊中獲得了非常大的槓桿效益。所以這正是在那條路徑上。
Richard Kramer - Analyst
Richard Kramer - Analyst
Okay. And then a quick follow-up for Marco, if I may. Your comments about being above the midpoint of your full year profit guidance, but having flattish profits in third quarter suggests you're going to more than double profits in Q4. Can you talk through the drivers of that, be it software revenue recognition, licensing, product deliveries, cost reductions, especially given the cash outflows for restructuring CapEx, working capital, et cetera, that we're seeing now and can expect in second half?
好的。那我再對 Marco 追問一個簡短問題,如果可以的話。你提到全年獲利指引將高於中位數,但第三季獲利大致持平,這暗示你們第四季的獲利將超過倍增。你能否說明其驅動因素,例如軟體營收認列、授權、產品交付、成本降低等,特別是考量到我們現在看到、且預期下半年仍會出現的重整相關資本支出(CapEx)、營運資金等現金流出?
Marco Wiren - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Marco Wiren - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. Thank you. I would say that if you look the normal seasonality that the industry has, specifically on a telecom customer base side, is usually very Q4 delivery heavy. And that's why we've seen in the past years as well that, that part of the industry usually generates the biggest profits and sales as well in quarter four. And now in addition, then we see also increase in AI and Cloud customer base that is also impacting the seasonality of our operations and also profit generation.
是的。謝謝。我會說,如果你看產業正常的季節性,特別是在電信客戶基礎這一端,通常第四季的交付會特別集中。這也是為什麼我們在過去幾年也看到,產業的這一部分通常在第四季創造最大的利潤與銷售。此外,我們也看到 AI 與雲端客戶基礎的增加,這也正在影響我們營運的季節性以及獲利的形成。
What comes to restructuring that we -- the program that we announced in '23 -- end of '23, that we will end in end of this year. And we expect that we will get those EUR1.2 billion accumulated gross cost savings, just like we said as well and (inaudible) that we expect to actually accelerate the synergy program that I mentioned earlier, when it comes to the China company that we took over 100%. And then also, we had some additional voluntary based cost savings restructuring also in Europe, and those we will take this year as well.
至於重組方面——我們在 2023 年(2023 年底)宣布的那個計畫——我們將在今年年底結束。我們預期將可取得累計毛成本節省 12 億歐元,正如我們先前所說的,而且(聽不清)我們也預期會加速我先前提到的協同計畫,特別是針對我們已 100% 併購的中國公司。另外,我們在歐洲也有一些基於自願方案的額外成本節省重組,這些也會在今年入帳。
But altogether, if you look at our cash position, we have a very strong position. Now we had EUR2.8 billion net cash end of quarter two. We had some inventory and working capital increase in quarter two to secure also deliveries going forward. And then, of course, accounts receivables follow normal sales pattern as well. But we believe also by the end of the year, we have very good financial position and cash position. So I don't see any issues there.
但總體來看,如果你看我們的現金部位,我們的狀況非常強勁。第二季末我們有 28 億歐元的淨現金。第二季我們的庫存與營運資金有所增加,以確保後續的交付。當然,應收帳款也會遵循正常的銷售模式。但我們也相信到今年年底,我們將維持非常好的財務狀況與現金部位。所以我不認為那裡會有任何問題。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.
Sandeep Deshpande,摩根大通。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
I want to understand from your order book in AI and Cloud in the quarter (inaudible).
我想了解你們在本季 AI 與雲端的訂單簿情況(聽不清)。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
We can barely -- we're really struggling to hear you, Sandeep.
我們幾乎——我們真的很難聽清楚你說話,Sandeep。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Do you hear me? Can you hear me better now?
你聽得到我嗎?現在聽得更清楚嗎?
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
That's a little better.
現在好一點了。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Yeah. So (inaudible) strong in AI and Cloud in the quarter. How much -- I mean, last quarter, you had said that the EUR1 billion of orders, what an ongoing order intake, even though you will have lumpiness in your orders, how much of this EUR2.8 billion is an ongoing order in equity you characterized? And then secondly, regarding AI and Cloud, how should we be looking at a run rate on revenue in this business between Optical and IP route?
好的。所以(聽不清)本季 AI 與雲端表現很強。有多少——我的意思是,上季你們提到 10 億歐元的訂單屬於持續性的接單,即使訂單會有波動;那這 28 億歐元之中,有多少是你們所描述的那種持續性訂單?第二個問題,關於 AI 與雲端,我們應該如何看待這項業務在光傳輸(Optical)與 IP 路由(IP route)之間的營收跑速(run rate)?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Sure. So on the first one, I think we've broken it out for you that what we saw in next 12 months and forward. And I'm not going to break it out any further in terms of -- or try to estimate that for you. But it gives -- that should give you a good view on what's in the coming four quarters and what's beyond that.
當然。第一點,我想我們已經為你拆分過:我們看到未來 12 個月以及更往後的部分。我不會再進一步拆分——或試著替你估算更多細項。但那應該能讓你清楚看到接下來四個季度會發生什麼,以及更之後的情況。
And then in terms of the mix, I think I touched on this. I mean, optical is growing a little bit faster this quarter than IP. But of course, it's starting from a healthier -- just a stronger position. IP were just as we said, we're just starting to ramp in design wins and deliver those. We talked about that last quarter. So I'm pleased with the momentum. And I think if you look at it from the other side, which is 100% year-over-year growth, I think we're set up for a very good continued growth forecast from the AI and Cloud segment.
至於組合(mix),我想我也提到過。我的意思是,本季光傳輸的成長比 IP 稍快一些。但當然,它是從更健康——也就是更強的基礎起步。至於 IP,正如我們所說,我們才剛開始在設計導入(design wins)上加速,並開始交付。我們上季談過這點。所以我對這個動能感到滿意。而且我認為如果你從另一個角度看,也就是年增 100% 的成長,我們在 AI 與雲端部門的持續成長展望上,已經具備非常好的條件。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Sebastien Sztabowicz, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Sebastien Sztabowicz,Kepler Cheuvreux。
Sebastien Sztabowicz - Analyst
Sebastien Sztabowicz - Analyst
On Iran coming back, have you seen a specific commercial traction over the past few months? I view being added any new customers trailing your solution. And you are targeting twice more spectral efficiency by 2028. What about the total cost of ownership of the solution?
關於 Iran 回歸,你們在過去幾個月是否看到具體的商業進展?我看是否有新增任何客戶在試用你們的解決方案。你們目標在 2028 年前將頻譜效率提升到兩倍。那這個解決方案的總持有成本(TCO)如何?
And next to the baseband, do you plan to partner with NVIDIA on GPU for radios? Or it will be mostly focused on the baseband?
另外,除了基頻(baseband)之外,你們是否計畫在無線電(radios)的 GPU 上與 NVIDIA 合作?還是主要會聚焦在基頻?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Okay. So three questions. Let me hit them. First of all, I'll start actually with the last one. So the announcement that we made last week was around AI-RAN for baseband and the NVIDIA GPU solution going into our AirScale platform, a future stand-alone platform, and also having a Cloud RAN coming off-the-shelf server solution. So that's the current announcement.
好的。三個問題。我來逐一回答。首先我其實先從最後一個開始。我們上週的公告是關於用於基頻的 AI-RAN,以及 NVIDIA 的 GPU 解決方案導入我們的 AirScale 平台、未來的獨立(stand-alone)平台,並且也包含以現成伺服器(off-the-shelf server)解決方案來實現雲端 RAN。這就是目前公告的內容。
In terms of the spectral efficiency in TCO, as you probably know, that's a -- that TCO ends up being a very customer-specific discussion. But at the macro level, hardware deployment with 100% spectral efficiency improvement. I think the math there speaks for itself in terms of the value creation potential for the operator.
至於頻譜效率與 TCO,如你所知,TCO 最終會是一個非常因客戶而異的討論。但在宏觀層面,如果硬體部署能帶來 100% 的頻譜效率提升,我認為就營運商的價值創造潛力而言,這個算術本身就很清楚。
And the other key thing is that the software -- this is a software model. So the benefit for the operator is not just TCO, but it's also a CapEx to OpEx transition in terms of ongoing benefit without having to have hardware upgrades. So I think there's a tremendous amount of value when you look at it from a life cycle standpoint.
另一個關鍵點是軟體——這是一種軟體模式。因此對營運商的好處不只是 TCO,還包括在不需要硬體升級的情況下,將資本支出(CapEx)轉為營運支出(OpEx),並獲得持續性的效益。所以我認為從生命週期的角度來看,價值非常可觀。
And then in terms of the pilot deployments, we've got -- we've announced 10 public customers on track for later this year. There's many conversations going on about this. We expect to start the deployment of the pilots later this year. Obviously, we expect that will continue into '27. And obviously, as we make progress and we continue to share the progress publicly as we can on the progress we're making, the capabilities we're delivering.
至於試點部署(pilot deployments),我們已經——我們已宣布有 10 家公開客戶,目標在今年稍晚如期推進。目前也有很多相關對話正在進行。我們預期今年稍晚開始部署這些試點。顯然,我們預期這會持續到 2027 年。而且顯然,隨著我們取得進展,我們也會在可行的範圍內持續對外分享我們的進度、以及我們交付的能力。
But it's more than just spectral efficiency. It's also a platform that's extensible, and we talked about this a little bit. It's a bit technical, but you can add -- you can actually put your own applications and services in at the radio layer. And this allows some new capabilities, which we think are going to be pretty attractive to a number of operators, things like sensing and other applications.
但這不只是頻譜效率。它同時也是一個可擴展的平台,我們也稍微談到過。這有點技術性,但你可以加入——你其實可以在無線電層(radio layer)放入你自己的應用與服務。這會帶來一些新的能力,我們認為對不少營運商會相當有吸引力,例如感測(sensing)以及其他應用。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Rob Sanders, Deutsche Bank.
Rob Sanders,德意志銀行。
Robert Sanders - Analyst
Robert Sanders - Analyst
First question would just be about the indium phosphide fab ramp. Do you have line of sight to hitting best-in-class 6-inch yields next year? Clearly, Coherent is already doing pretty well. Lumentum seems a bit behind. So where do you stand on that?
第一個問題是關於磷化銦(indium phosphide)晶圓廠的產能爬坡。你們是否有把握在明年達到同級最佳(best-in-class)的 6 吋良率?很明顯 Coherent 已經做得相當不錯。Lumentum 看起來稍微落後一些。所以你們目前處於什麼位置?
And the second question would just be around AI-RAN. If you look at the top three US operators, how many do you think internally have already gone past the go/no-go decision on whether to deploy AI-RAN?
第二個問題是關於 AI-RAN。如果你看美國前三大電信營運商,你認為其中有多少家在內部已經超過是否部署 AI-RAN 的 go/no-go 決策點?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Okay. Got it. Rob, thanks. So I think, obviously, we have one operator today in the US (inaudible) I'll come back to indium phosphide. So in AI-RAN, we have one operator in the US that's got our RAN deployed at scale. That's T-Mobile. They announced that they're going to be our lead partner on the pilot. So obviously, we're working closely with them. I would assume that that would lead us to conclude that they're probably not past the go/no-go deployment path.
好的。了解。Rob,謝謝。所以我想,很明顯地,我們今天在美國有一家營運商(聽不清),我稍後會再回到磷化銦。所以在 AI-RAN 方面,我們在美國有一家營運商已經大規模部署了我們的 RAN。那就是 T-Mobile。他們宣布將成為我們試點專案的主要合作夥伴。所以很明顯地,我們正與他們密切合作。我會假設,這會讓我們得出結論:他們大概還沒有走到「是否部署(go/no-go)」路徑之後的階段。
On the others, I think it's a discussion that obviously we'll leave for them to assess. But my view here is that the GPU performance is compelling, and it's particularly compelling in a business case where spectral efficiency matters, which is going to be more dense operations. But that's obviously -- they've got road maps and strategies is probably better to ask them than ask me.
至於其他的,我認為這顯然是一個我們會留給他們自行評估的討論。但我在這裡的看法是,GPU 的效能很有吸引力,而且在頻譜效率很重要的商業案例中特別有吸引力,而那將會是更高密度的營運場景。但這顯然——他們有自己的路線圖與策略,可能問他們比問我更合適。
And then on the indium phosphide ramp, what I would say is we've got yield targets that we focused on both yield and volume targets we focused on through 2027 on the fab. My view is while we're -- you rightly said, while the ecosystem is maturing, and it's not just the two you mentioned, but also the Chinese manufacturers in this space. I also believe this is a place where we're going to go through a significant amount of maturity and learning as we scale -- and scale yield, and that's what I'm focused on with the team versus a specific target or a competitor reach. I think there's actually -- I think this is more about us learning and scaling and making sure we can deliver on our volume plans and obviously, our cost point.
然後關於磷化銦的爬坡,我想說的是,我們在晶圓廠端一直聚焦到 2027 年的良率目標,以及良率與產量目標。我的看法是,正如你說得對,當生態系正在成熟時,而且不只是你提到的那兩家,還包括這個領域的中國製造商。我也相信,隨著我們擴大規模——以及提升良率、擴大良率規模——我們會經歷相當程度的成熟與學習,而這正是我與團隊聚焦的重點,而不是某個特定目標或追趕競爭對手。我認為這其實——我認為這更多是關於我們的學習與擴張,並確保我們能夠交付我們的產量計畫,當然也包括我們的成本水準。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Artem Beletski, SEB.
Artem Beletski,SEB。
Artem Beletski - Equity Analyst
Artem Beletski - Equity Analyst
Relating to NI, could you maybe comment what type of order intake development you actually see outside of AI and Cloud, so namely telcos and mission-critical. So how we should think about the revenue growth trajectory on this front looking at this year and also next year?
關於 NI,你們是否可以評論一下,在 AI 與雲端之外,你們實際看到的訂單接單發展是什麼樣子——也就是電信業者與任務關鍵(mission-critical)領域。因此,從今年以及明年來看,我們應該如何思考這一塊的營收成長軌跡?
Marco Wiren - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Marco Wiren - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. Thank you, Artem. Just like we mentioned earlier as well that we had a good order intake development and sales development in also non-cloud customer base. So telcos, we're investing more. And this is also driving because of their need to invest in their network to secure that they can deliver the demand that is coming from AI and Cloud and AI in general development.
是的。謝謝你,Artem。就像我們先前也提到的,我們在非雲端客戶基礎上也有不錯的接單發展與銷售發展。所以在電信業者方面,我們正在加大投資。這也在推動,因為他們需要投資其網路,以確保他們能夠滿足來自 AI 與雲端,以及整體 AI 發展所帶來的需求。
And most likely, this will happen broadly -- more broadly going forward as well because we believe that AI demand will continue -- the underlying demand will continue for a longer period of time. And without very good secure networks, it is very difficult to provide those improvements that AI is actually providing. I don't know if you have something you want to add.
而且很可能,未來這也會更廣泛地發生——更廣泛地推進——因為我們相信 AI 需求將會持續——其底層需求將在更長一段時間內持續。如果沒有非常良好且安全可靠的網路,就很難提供 AI 實際帶來的那些改善。我不知道你是否還有想補充的。
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I would say -- the only thing I would say, Artem, is if you looked at NI specifically, the only headwind which we talked about last quarter is obviously on the customer premise equipment side of Fixed Networks where we're getting much more disciplined on margin, that creates a bit of a headwind when you look at NI as a whole. Underneath that is the momentum that Marco talked about in IP and optical, and also, healthy -- obviously, a healthy growth in optical line terminals as well, which is the network side of the Fixed Networks business.
是的。我會說——Artem,我唯一想補充的是,如果你特別看 NI,我們上季談到的唯一逆風,顯然是在固定網路(Fixed Networks)的客戶端設備(customer premise equipment)那一側;我們在毛利率上變得更有紀律,當你從 NI 整體來看,這會帶來一些逆風。在此之下,是 Marco 提到的 IP 與光學的動能,以及——顯然——光纖線路終端(optical line terminals)也有健康的成長,而那是固定網路業務的網路側。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Felix Henriksson, Nordea.
Felix Henriksson,Nordea。
Felix Henriksson - Analyst
Felix Henriksson - Analyst
So in the report, you say that the IP Networks product mix had an adverse impact on the NI gross margin. Was there something specific to the quarter? Or does this sort of imply that the margin profile in data gene switching products at this scale is sort of dilutive to your gross margins?
所以在報告中,你們提到 IP Networks 的產品組合對 NI 的毛利率造成不利影響。這是該季度有什麼特定因素嗎?還是這某種程度上意味著,在這樣的規模下,資料中心交換(data gene switching)產品的毛利率輪廓會對你們的整體毛利率造成稀釋?
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Justin Hotard - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Leadership Team
Yeah. I think this is largely tied to what we said at the CMD. We'd see some gross margin headwinds as we ramp products in this space, and this is what we're seeing. What I'm focused on is it's -- the business is fundamentally accretive to gross profit and ultimately to our operating margins. And then as we talked about earlier in one of the -- answering one of the questions, making sure we're streamlining the company and driving efficiencies so that we unlock operating leverage. And that's our focus.
是的。我認為這在很大程度上與我們在 CMD 上所說的內容相關。當我們在這個領域拉升產品時,會看到一些毛利率逆風,而這正是我們目前看到的。我所關注的是——這項業務在根本上會增加毛利貢獻(accretive to gross profit),並最終提升我們的營業利潤率。然後如同我們先前在回答其中一個問題時談到的,確保我們精簡公司並推動效率提升,以釋放營運槓桿。這就是我們的重點。
I mean, obviously, we've got to show that, but when I think about where Marco and I are focused, we're very focused on that side right now. And I think you'll see the margin as we mature in the space continue to improve.
我的意思是,顯然我們必須證明這一點,但當我想到 Marco 和我目前聚焦的方向時,我們現在非常專注在這一面。而且我認為,隨著我們在這個領域逐步成熟,你會看到毛利率持續改善。
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
David Mulholland - Head of Investor Relations
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. I would like to remind you that during the call today, we have made a number of forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may, therefore, differ materially from the results currently expected. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 20-F, which is available on our Investor Relations website.
各位女士、先生,今天的電話會議到此結束。我想提醒各位,我們在今天的會議中做出了一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及風險與不確定性。因此,實際結果可能與目前預期的結果存在重大差異。可能造成此類差異的因素,既可能是外部因素,也可能是內部營運因素。我們已在年度報告 Form 20-F 的「風險因素」章節中識別了此類風險;該報告可在我們的投資人關係網站上取得。
Thank you for joining us today.
感謝各位今天參與。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you, everyone, for joining. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。