諾基亞 (NOK) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Nokia Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

您好，歡迎參加諾基亞 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Matt Shimao, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管Matt Shimao 先生。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Nokia's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加諾基亞 2019 年第四季和全年電話會議。

I'm Matt Shimao, Head of Nokia Investor Relations.

我是諾基亞投資者關係主管馬特·世茂。

Rajeev Suri, President and CEO of Nokia; and Kristian Pullola, CFO of Nokia, are here in Espoo with me today.

Rajeev Suri，諾基亞總裁兼執行長；諾基亞財務長克里斯蒂安·普拉拉 (Kristian Pullola) 今天和我一起來到埃斯波。

During this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements regarding the future business and financial performance of Nokia and its industry.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就諾基亞及其產業的未來業務和財務表現做出前瞻性陳述。

These statements are predictions that involve risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述是涉及風險和不確定性的預測。

Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results we currently expect.

因此，實際結果可能與我們目前預期的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause such differences can be both external, such as general economic and industry conditions, as well as internal operating factors.

可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素，例如總體經濟和行業狀況，也可以是內部營運因素。

We have identified such risks in more detail on Pages 60 through 75 of our 2018 annual report on Form 20-F, our financial report for Q4 and full year 2019 issued today, as well as our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們在 2018 年年度報告 20-F 的第 60 至 75 頁、今天發布的第四季度和 2019 年全年財務報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中更詳細地識別了此類風險。

Please note that our results release, the complete interim report with tables and the presentation on our website include non-IFRS results information in addition to the reported results information.

請注意，我們的業績發布、帶有表格的完整中期報告以及我們網站上的簡報除報告的業績資訊外還包括非 IFRS 業績資訊。

Our complete financial report with tables available on our website includes a detailed explanation of the concept of the non-IFRS information and a reconciliation between the non-IFRS and the reported information.

我們的完整財務報告以及網站上提供的表格包括對非國際財務報告準則資訊概念的詳細解釋以及非國際財務報告準則與報告資訊之間的調節。

With that, Rajeev, over to you.

好了，拉吉夫，交給你了。

Thanks, Matt, and thanks to all of you for joining.

謝謝馬特，也謝謝大家的加入。

I would like to start my remarks today by talking about the 2 areas where we will have a particularly sharp focus this year: executing in Mobile Access and strengthening cash generation.

我想在今天的演講開始時談談我們今年將特別關注的兩個領域：執行行動接取和加強現金產生。

I will then come back to an overview of our fourth quarter and give you some more color on our results and what we see going forward.

然後我將回顧我們第四季度的情況，並為您提供更多關於我們的結果和我們對未來的展望的資訊。

Executing in Mobile Access and strengthening cash generation are the 2 most pressing issues that we face.

執行行動訪問和加強現金產生是我們面臨的兩個最緊迫的問題。

Since we announced our third quarter results, we have listened carefully to you, our investors, and many other stakeholders.

自從我們公佈第三季業績以來，我們認真聽取了您、我們的投資者和許多其他利害關係人的意見。

We are committed to improving our performance and based on the feedback we have received are taking steps to provide greater transparency on progress against the commitments that we have made.

我們致力於提高我們的績效，並根據收到的回饋採取措施，提高我們兌現承諾的進度透明度。

Before going into the details, however, let me make 2 additional upfront comments.

然而，在討論細節之前，讓我先提出兩點補充意見。

First, despite our strong fourth quarter results, we still have plenty of work to do, particularly in Mobile Access.

首先，儘管第四季度業績強勁，但我們仍有大量工作要做，特別是在行動訪問方面。

We expect to make meaningful progress over the course of the year.

我們期望在這一年中取得有意義的進展。

And as I said a few months ago, expect our turnaround to have firmly taken hold by the end of this year.

正如我幾個月前所說，預計我們的扭虧為盈將在今年年底牢牢紮根。

Second, while we are very focused on addressing the areas where we need to improve, we saw robust performance in many other parts of the company in both the fourth quarter and full year 2019.

其次，雖然我們非常專注於解決需要改進的領域，但我們在 2019 年第四季和全年都看到了公司許多其他部門的強勁表現。

On a full year basis, IP routing continued its strong momentum, gaining significant market share and improving profitability.

全年來看，IP路由繼續保持強勁勢頭，獲得了顯著的市場份額並提高了盈利能力。

Nokia Software delivered on its promise with an operating margin that was up sharply from 2018.

諾基亞軟體兌現了其承諾，營業利潤率較 2018 年大幅成長。

Nokia Enterprise also delivered exceedingly well, hitting its double-digit sales growth target and considerably outperforming the market.

諾基亞企業版的表現也非常出色，達到了兩位數的銷售成長目標，並且大大優於市場。

And Nokia Technologies increased its already excellent profitability.

諾基亞科技公司也提高了其本已出色的獲利能力。

While all of this is good, we are well aware of the fact [if Mobile] Access is not performing well, Nokia as a company will struggle to perform well.

儘管所有這些都很好，但我們很清楚，[如果移動] Access 表現不佳，諾基亞作為一家公司將很難表現良好。

So let me turn to that now.

現在讓我談談這個問題。

To start, let me just be clear about terminology.

首先，讓我先澄清一下術語。

When I talk about Mobile Access, I'm talking about the combination of our product-focused Mobile Networks business group and our Global Services organization.

當我談論行動存取時，我指的是我們以產品為中心的行動網路業務部門和全球服務組織的結合。

This is the right grouping to look at overall mobile performance, given the close linkage between the 2. In our earnings release, we report net sales for Mobile Access for precisely this reason.

鑑於兩者之間的密切聯繫，這是衡量整體行動效能的正確分組。

Within Mobile Access, our focus is on 4 key areas: first, improving profitability through consistent product cost reductions; second, maintaining scale to be competitive; third, enhancing commercial management and deal discipline; and fourth, further strengthening operational performance in services.

在Mobile Access領域，我們將重點放在4個關鍵領域：第一，透過持續降低產品成本來提高獲利能力；第二，保持規模，保持競爭力；三是加強商務管理和交易紀律。四是進一步強化服務經營績效。

Let me talk more about each of these topics, starting with improving profitability through consistent product cost reductions, which are essential to improving our Nokia-level gross margins over time.

讓我詳細談談這些主題，首先是透過持續降低產品成本來提高獲利能力，這對於隨著時間的推移提高我們諾基亞水準的毛利率至關重要。

We are highly competitive in 4G and are consistently rated as having the best-performing 4G networks in North America, Europe and other parts of the world by third parties such as RootMetrics, Tutela and others.

我們在4G方面具有很強的競爭力，並且一直被RootMetrics、Tutela等第三方評為在北美、歐洲和世界其他地區擁有最佳表現的4G網路。

But as we discussed last quarter, we are facing challenges with high radio product costs in the early stages of 5G.

但正如我們在上季度討論的那樣，我們在 5G 的早期階段面臨著無線電產品成本高昂的挑戰。

Our teams in Mobile Networks, procurement and others are working hard to optimize those costs by addressing every possible part of product bill of materials, including semiconductors, where a transition to system-on-chip is critical.

我們的行動網路、採購和其他團隊正在努力解決產品物料清單的每個可能部分（包括半導體）來優化這些成本，其中向系統單晶片的過渡至關重要。

We are making the right progress, but it will take time for those results to show in our financial performance.

我們正在取得正確的進展，但這些成果需要時間才能體現在我們的財務表現中。

There is typically about a 6-month lag when a new cost-optimized product is shipped and when it starts to impact the financials.

從成本優化的新產品出貨到開始影響財務狀況，通常會有大約 6 個月的延遲期。

Volumes need to increase and deployments need to take place.

需要增加數量並進行部署。

To address our 5G product cost issues and meet higher performance requirements, we have started rolling out Nokia's new system-on-chip, 5G Powered by ReefShark base station portfolio.

為了解決我們的 5G 產品成本問題並滿足更高的效能要求，我們已開始推出諾基亞新的系統單晶片 5G Powered by ReefShark 基地台產品組合。

These new products made up about 10% of our 5G product shipments in Q4 2019, and we expect that number to increase progressively over the course of the year, ending at more than 35%.

這些新產品約佔 2019 年第四季我們 5G 產品出貨量的 10%，我們預計這一數字將在年內逐步增加，最終達到 35% 以上。

For full year 2021, we would be in the range of 70%, and the transition would essentially be complete in 2022.

2021 年全年，我們將在 70% 的範圍內，過渡將在 2022 年基本完成。

To give you visibility to how we are performing, we will give quarterly updates this year on the percentage of 5G Powered by ReefShark base stations shipped and will flag any issues that we see, both positive and negative.

為了讓您了解我們的表現，我們將在今年每季更新由 ReefShark 支援的 5G 基地台的出貨百分比，並將標記我們發現的任何正面和負面問題。

As of today, we are tracking against our plan and have seen some of our SoC development proceeding slightly ahead of schedule.

截至今天，我們正在追蹤我們的計劃，並發現我們的一些 SoC 開發進度略微提前。

This is complex work, however, so there is always a risk of issues or delays.

然而，這是一項複雜的工作，因此總是存在出現問題或延誤的風險。

That said, we are now shipping our 5G Powered by ReefShark Massive MIMO product, which launched at the end of 2019.

也就是說，我們現在正在出貨由 ReefShark Massive MIMO 支援的 5G 產品，該產品於 2019 年底推出。

Volumes will ramp up over the first half of the year as new variants are added, and we expect to have a full lineup of 5G Powered by ReefShark Massive MIMO by the end of the second quarter.

隨著新變體的添加，今年上半年的銷量將有所增加，我們預計到第二季末將擁有由 ReefShark Massive MIMO 提供支援的完整 5G 產品線。

New 5G ReefShark based products will continue to come, and we saw the successful tape-out of 2 new chips in January.

基於 ReefShark 的新 5G 產品將持續推出，我們在 1 月看到了 2 款新晶片的成功流片。

As I'm sure many of you know, tape out is the final step of the design process before chips are sent to be manufactured into engineering samples for product integration and testing.

我相信你們很多人都知道，流片是設計過程的最後一步，然後將晶片送到製造成工程樣品以進行產品整合和測試。

We're also making good progress on the next releases of 5G software, with integration and verification showing improving quality and maturity compared to earlier releases.

我們在下一個版本的 5G 軟體方面也取得了良好進展，與早期版本相比，整合和驗證表明品質和成熟度有所提高。

These efforts are being boosted by both added R&D headcount and better productivity.

研發人員數量的增加和生產力的提高都推動了這些努力。

In short, we are tracking well, but there is still plenty of work to do.

簡而言之，我們進展順利，但仍有大量工作要做。

The second issue I want to discuss is maintaining scale and specifically scale related to mobile radio products.

我想討論的第二個問題是保持規模，特別是與行動無線電產品相關的規模。

We expect that when all the results are in, Nokia will have a 4G plus 5G market share in the range of 27% for 2019, excluding China.

我們預計，當所有結果公佈後，諾基亞 2019 年的 4G 加 5G 市佔率將在 27% 左右（不包括中國）。

While this means we lost some share in the year in this part of our overall primary addressable market, we expect to stabilize at approximately the same level, 27%, for 2020.

雖然這意味著我們今年在整體主要目標市場的這一部分失去了一些份額，但我們預計 2020 年將穩定在大致相同的水平，即 27%。

Normal footprint fluctuations, of course, are always possible, but we have and expect to continue to have the necessary scale to be competitive.

當然，正常的足跡波動總是有可能的，但我們已經並期望繼續擁有必要的規模來保持競爭力。

One reason we have that confidence is that our 5G win rate remains strong.

我們有信心的原因之一是我們的 5G 勝率仍然很高。

This metric factors in customer size and measures how we are doing in converting our end of 2018 4G footprint as well as adding new 5G footprint where we did not previously have a 4G install base.

該指標考慮了客戶規模，並衡量了我們在轉換 2018 年底的 4G 覆蓋範圍以及在我們之前沒有 4G 安裝基礎的情況下添加新的 5G 覆蓋範圍方面的表現。

At the end of the fourth quarter 2019, our 5G win rate was over 100%, excluding China and in the mid-90% range, including China.

截至2019年第四季末，我們的5G勝率超過100%（不包括中國），而包括中國在內則約90%。

Reflected in this overall performance, we have seen gains in Korea, Japan and the Middle East, offset by some losses, including in limited parts of Europe.

從整體表現來看，我們看到韓國、日本和中東的成長被一些損失所抵消，包括歐洲有限地區的損失。

In addition, we added 2 new communication service provider customers where we do not currently have a 4G footprint, one of those being the publicly announced deal with Vodafone Hutchinson Australia; the other is a European operator that is not public.

此外，我們還增加了 2 個新的通訊服務供應商客戶，其中我們目前沒有 4G 覆蓋範圍，其中之一就是公開宣布的與 Vodafone Hutchinson Australia 的交易；另一個是非公開的歐洲營運商。

In short, outside of China, our position remains strong with customers where we have an existing 4G base, and we've added some new 5G customers as well.

簡而言之，在中國以外，我們在擁有現有 4G 基礎的客戶中的地位仍然穩固，我們也增加了一些新的 5G 客戶。

As of today, we have 66 5G deal wins and 19 live networks deployed.

截至今天，我們已贏得 66 筆 5G 交易並部署了 19 個現網網路。

Pleasingly, we also added 2 new enterprise 5G customers, including Deutsche Bahn.

令人高興的是，我們還增加了 2 個新的企業 5G 客戶，其中包括德國鐵路公司 (Deutsche Bahn)。

So that you can track our progress going forward, we will give quarterly updates on our win rate as well as a qualitative view on customer developments that we are seeing.

為了讓您能夠追蹤我們未來的進展，我們將每季更新我們的獲勝率以及我們所看到的客戶發展的定性觀點。

While the win rate is a good way to look at longer-term developments, near-term outcomes will be impacted by things like purchase orders, network rollout time lines, deliveries and customer acceptances.

雖然獲勝率是看待長期發展的好方法，但短期結果將受到採購訂單、網路推出時間表、交付和客戶接受度等因素的影響。

As additional background, 3 comments.

作為額外的背景，3 則評論。

First, we are focused on 4G plus 5G share figures as that is the best way to assess the question of scale and purchasing power.

首先，我們關注 4G 加 5G 的份額數據，因為這是評估規模和購買力問題的最佳方式。

It is also increasingly difficult to disaggregate the 2 technologies as products like Massive MIMO can be used for either one.

分解這兩種技術也變得越來越困難，因為大規模 MIMO 等產品可以用於任何一種技術。

Second, we are looking at our 4G plus 5G share excluding China, given that pursuing share in China presents significant profitability challenges and the market has some unique dynamics.

其次，我們正在考慮不包括中國在內的 4G 和 5G 份額，因為在中國追求份額會帶來巨大的獲利挑戰，而且該市場具有一些獨特的動態。

As you know, we are a long-term player in China and have worked hard to meet requirements in the country, including support for the TD-SCDMA standard when no other western vendors stepped up.

如您所知，我們是中國的長期參與者，並一直努力滿足該國的要求，包括在沒有其他西方供應商介入的情況下支援 TD-SCDMA 標準。

We will continue to engage with our operator customers in China to support their 5G ambitions, but what we do with them needs to work for Nokia as well.

我們將繼續與中國的營運商客戶合作，支持他們的 5G 雄心，但我們與他們所做的事情也需要為諾基亞服務。

I want to be very clear that we are not backing away from China, but simply executing against a clear strategic goal to improve our overall business mix in the country.

我想明確表示，我們並不是要退出中國，而只是執行一個明確的戰略目標，以改善我們在中國的整體業務組合。

This means that we will be prudent in 5G while targeting more attractive opportunities with service providers in core, routing, transport, fixed access and our current 4G business as well as with enterprise and webscale customers.

這意味著我們將在5G方面保持謹慎態度，同時瞄準核心、路由、傳輸、固定存取和我們目前的4G業務以及企業和網路規模客戶方面的服務供應商更具吸引力的機會。

We still expect to be a sizable player in China well into the future.

我們仍然期望在未來成為中國的重要參與者。

And with the procurement rounds still to come, our final position in 5G will only be clear in time.

隨著採購輪調的到來，我們在 5G 領域的最終定位只會隨著時間的推移而明確。

Third, I want to emphasize that if you look at our performance in 2019 against our total primary addressable market, excluding China, we were in line with market growth.

第三，我想強調的是，如果你看看我們 2019 年的表現與我們的主要目標市場（不包括中國）的表現，我們與市場成長是一致的。

The losses in mobile radio that I just mentioned were largely offset by gains in IP routing, optical and mobile packet core.

我剛才提到的行動無線電的損失在很大程度上被IP路由、光纖和行動分組核心的收益所抵消。

The next focus area in Mobile Access is enhancing commercial management and deal discipline.

行動存取的下一個重點領域是加強商業管理和交易紀律。

Over the course of 2019, we have put in place strengthened commercial management processes designed to drive better performance in current contracts and improve outcomes in new ones.

2019 年，我們加強了商業管理流程，旨在推動現有合約取得更好的績效並改善新合約的成果。

Deal decisions now include a sharp focus on cash and return on capital employed metrics, improved contractual terms and formal upsell commitments as well as our standard revenue and margin requirements.

現在的交易決策包括高度關注現金和資本回報率指標、改進的合約條款和正式的追加銷售承諾以及我們的標準收入和利潤要求。

We've also reviewed projects and customers that do not perform to our standard and have identified levers to enable better future outcomes.

我們也審查了未達到我們標準的專案和客戶，並確定了實現更好未來成果的槓桿。

In some cases, there are projects where we will renegotiate terms.

在某些情況下，有些項目我們會重新協商條款。

And in fact, there are some where we are already doing so.

事實上，我們已經在一些地方這樣做了。

As expected, these new processes have already generated meaningful margin opportunities for Nokia in 2020, and we have included these into targets for sales teams and others.

正如預期的那樣，這些新流程已經為諾基亞在 2020 年創造了有意義的利潤機會，我們將這些納入銷售團隊和其他人員的目標中。

Finally, further strengthening operational improvements in services, where, as I've noted before, a turnaround is starting to take hold as we increase operational discipline and enhance our efforts to manage for margin and cash.

最後，進一步加強服務方面的營運改進，正如我之前指出的，隨著我們加強營運紀律並加強利潤和現金管理工作，情況正在開始出現好轉。

I'm pleased that we saw progress in our Global Services operating margin in full year 2019 compared to 2018, even if we are still below what we believe we can achieve.

我很高興看到 2019 年全年全球服務營運利潤率比 2018 年有所進步，儘管我們仍低於我們認為可以實現的目標。

I also expect progress to continue in 2020 given better execution, although we will have some headwinds given a roughly similar level of network deployment services in 2019 as new 5G builds proceed.

我還預計，由於執行效果更好，2020 年將繼續取得進展，儘管隨著新 5G 建設的進行，2019 年網路部署服務水準大致相似，但我們將面臨一些阻力。

Improvements in 2019, particularly in the second half, were driven by a number of things, including: turnaround of poorly performing projects; strict execution discipline and enforcement of standard delivery models, resulting in fast and first time right network deployments; investments in digitalization and automation driven productivity, which are starting to show results; the exit of 6 low-margin managed services deals; tighter control of inventories; and strengthened capabilities in new customers and higher-margin growth areas.

2019 年，特別是下半年的改善是由多種因素推動的，包括： 業績不佳項目的扭轉；嚴格的執行紀律和標準交付模型的執行，從而實現快速、一次性正確的網路部署；對數位化和自動化驅動生產力的投資已開始顯現成效；退出 6 項低利潤託管服務交易；更嚴格地控制庫存；並加強了新客戶和高利潤成長領域的能力。

All of this work should be reflected over time in our Networks gross margin as the drivers and actions I just discussed take hold.

隨著我剛才討論的驅動因素和行動的落實，所有這些工作都應該隨著時間的推移反映在我們的網路毛利率中。

So to conclude on Mobile Access, we will start to provide regular updates on: one, progress on improving 5G product cost through a transition to our 5G Powered by ReefShark portfolio; two, a qualitative assessment of progress against our goal to stabilize our 2020 4G plus 5G market share level, excluding China, at a similar level to 2019; and three, our 5G win rate, which is a good proxy for our longer-term 5G market share position.

因此，在行動接取方面，我們將開始提供以下方面的定期更新：一、透過過渡到由 ReefShark 提供支援的 5G 產品組合，在提高 5G 產品成本方面取得的進展；第二，對我們的目標進行定性評估，以將 2020 年 4G + 5G 市場份額穩定在與 2019 年類似的水平（不包括中國）；第三，我們的 5G 獲勝率，這是我們長期 5G 市場份額地位的良好代表。

Now let me turn to our second focus area of strengthening cash generation.

現在讓我談談加強現金產生的第二個重點領域。

We saw solid cash performance in the fourth quarter, with a EUR 1.4 billion increase in our net cash position, allowing us to end the year with a net cash balance of EUR 1.73 billion.

我們在第四季度看到了穩健的現金表現，淨現金部位增加了 14 億歐元，使我們在年底時的淨現金餘額達到 17.3 億歐元。

We expect 2020 to be free cash flow positive.

我們預計 2020 年自由現金流將為正值。

As we noted in our third quarter announcement, our Board said that it expects to resume dividend distributions after Nokia's net cash position rises to approximately EUR 2 billion.

正如我們在第三季公告中指出的那樣，我們的董事會表示，預計在諾基亞的淨現金頭寸升至約 20 億歐元後將恢復股息分配。

Given typical cash seasonality, we would not expect to reach that level in the first 3 quarters of this year.

鑑於典型的現金季節性，我們預計今年前三個季度不會達到這一水平。

Should we exceed the EUR 2 billion level after that point, the Board will assess the possibility of proposing a dividend distribution for financial year 2020.

如果此後我們超過 20 億歐元的水平，董事會將評估提議 2020 財年股息分配的可能性。

In his remarks today, Kristian will give a deeper perspective on the drivers of cash this year, where we faced some particular headwinds related to Nokia Technologies and restructuring.

在今天的演講中，克里斯蒂安將對今年的現金驅動因素給出更深入的看法，今年我們面臨著與諾基亞技術和重組相關的一些特殊阻力。

We have a structured program in place, including a centralized war room to drive a company-wide focus on free cash flow and release of working capital, project asset optimization, strengthened contractual terms with customers and suppliers, and reinforce controls across our supply chain and management of inventory.

我們制定了結構化計劃，包括一個集中作戰室，以推動全公司範圍內關注自由現金流和營運資金釋放、專案資產優化、加強與客戶和供應商的合約條款，並加強對整個供應鏈和供應鏈的控制。

With the work we did in 2019, we were able to reduce inventories in the fourth quarter to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2018.

透過我們2019年所做的工作，我們能夠將第四季的庫存減少到2018年第一季以來的最低水準。

Going forward, we have further increased the weight of cash targets in the incentives, not just for Nokia senior leaders, but for many on the front line with customers.

展望未來，我們進一步增加了現金目標在激勵措施中的比重，不僅針對諾基亞高階領導者，也針對許多第一線客戶。

We expect this change will ensure that we maintain our momentum in this critical area.

我們預計這一變化將確保我們在這一關鍵領域保持勢頭。

Kristian will also talk about how we will adjust our approach to earnings per share guidance.

克里斯蒂安也將討論我們將如何調整每股盈餘指導方法。

But now, let me turn to the fourth quarter, where we delivered strong results.

但現在，讓我談談第四季度，我們取得了強勁的業績。

While Nokia-level constant currency net sales were down, we slightly increased operating margin compared to the same period last year, generated strong free cash flow and increased our net cash balance to EUR 1.73 billion, as I said.

正如我所說，雖然諾基亞以固定匯率計算的淨銷售額有所下降，但與去年同期相比，我們的營業利潤率略有上升，產生了強勁的自由現金流，並將我們的淨現金餘額增加至17.3 億歐元。

Despite the generally good performance in the quarter, our Networks gross margin is where we face challenges, coming in at 34.2% for Q4 2019 versus 36.3% in Q4 2018.

儘管本季業績整體良好，但我們的網路毛利率面臨挑戰，2019 年第四季為 34.2%，而 2018 年第四季為 36.3%。

On a full year basis, Networks gross margin was 30.6% for 2019 compared to 34.7% in 2018.

從全年來看，2019 年網路毛利率為 30.6%，而 2018 年為 34.7%。

On a full year 2019 basis, Nokia-level net sales were up 1% in constant currency globally, and 5% excluding China; and our non-IFRS operating margin was down about 1 percentage point versus 2018.

2019 年全年，以固定匯率計算，諾基亞全球淨銷售額成長 1%，不包括中國成長 5%；我們的非 IFRS 營業利潤率比 2018 年下降了約 1 個百分點。

We remain on track with cost reduction initiatives relative to our commitment to reduce 2020 costs by EUR 500 million compared to 2018.

我們仍然致力於實施成本削減舉措，兌現我們的承諾，即 2020 年成本比 2018 年減少 5 億歐元。

In 2019, we achieved EUR 200 million of recurring cost savings as expected, even when you exclude the savings benefit from the release of employee incentives.

2019 年，我們按預期實現了 2 億歐元的經常性成本節省，即使您將員工激勵措施的節省收益排除在外。

We did this despite facing considerable currency exchange headwinds of EUR 125 million.

儘管面臨 1.25 億歐元的巨大貨幣兌換阻力，我們還是做到了這一點。

Given that I've already addressed Mobile Access, let me talk briefly about the Q4 performance in our other business groups, starting with IP/Optical Networks or ION.

鑑於我已經討論了行動接入，讓我簡要談談我們其他業務部門的第四季度業績，首先是 IP/光網絡或 ION。

Overall, our momentum in this business was very good, ION's best quarter ever in terms of both absolute profits and profitability and one of the best as far as sales go.

總體而言，我們在這項業務上的勢頭非常好，無論是絕對利潤還是盈利能力，都是 ION 有史以來最好的季度，也是銷售額最好的季度之一。

Our FB4 product leadership in IP routing, combined with the power of the global Nokia sales channel, helped deliver constant currency growth of 6% in the quarter and 12% for the full year, excluding the video business that we're exiting.

我們的 FB4 產品在 IP 路由方面的領先地位，加上全球諾基亞銷售管道的力量，幫助實現了本季 6% 和全年 12% 的穩定貨幣成長（不包括我們正在退出的視訊業務）。

At a time when the routing market is declining, we are clearly gaining share while also improving profitability.

在路由市場下滑之際，我們顯然在擴大份額，同時也提高了獲利能力。

Optical Networks had a good year and fourth quarter.

光網絡公司今年和第四季表現良好。

Constant currency Q4 sales rose 16% year-on-year and profitability increased meaningfully for the full year.

以固定匯率計算，第四季銷售額年增 16%，全年獲利能力大幅成長。

Even if there is plenty of work still to do, including continuously reducing product costs, we can now say with confidence that we are one of the scale players in optical.

儘管還有大量工作要做，包括不斷降低產品成本，但我們現在可以自信地說，我們是光學領域的規模參與者之一。

Pleasingly, our leading PSE-3 chipset is shipping in volume and has already being deployed in the first direct optical connection between the U.S.A.

令人高興的是，我們領先的 PSE-3 晶片組正在批量發貨，並已部署在美國與美國之間的第一個直接光纖連接中。

and Africa with Angola Cables.

和非洲安哥拉電纜。

Next, Nokia Software, where our underlying performance has also been strong.

接下來是諾基亞軟體，我們的基本表現也很強勁。

Profitability, as I said, was very good, with full year operating profit that was up sharply by 31% compared to 2018.

正如我所說，獲利能力非常好，全年營業利潤比 2018 年大幅成長 31%。

Software sales were down in the fourth quarter and slightly for the full year on a constant currency basis, but I want to make 2 points to put those results in context.

以固定匯率計算，第四季軟體銷售額有所下降，全年軟體銷售額略有下降，但我想提出兩點來說明這些結果。

First, we had a tough compare in the fourth quarter, given that the same period in 2018 was Nokia Software's strongest top line quarter on record.

首先，我們在第四季度進行了艱難的比較，因為 2018 年同期是諾基亞軟體公司有史以來最強勁的營收季度。

Second, on a full year basis, software grew in every region except China and India.

其次，從全年來看，除中國和印度外，所有地區的軟體都有成長。

As you know, we report India as part of the Asia Pacific region.

如您所知，我們將印度報告為亞太地區的一部分。

Overall, I remain confident that the trajectory is in the right direction for our software business.

總的來說，我仍然相信我們的軟體業務的發展軌跡是正確的。

Then Nokia Enterprise.

然後是諾基亞企業版。

I talked on previous calls about a goal of double-digit growth for full year 2019, and the team delivered that.

我在之前的電話會議中談到了 2019 年全年兩位數成長的目標，團隊實現了這一目標。

Constant currency, year-on-year net sales growth was 33% in Q4 and 18% for the full year versus 2018.

以固定匯率計算，第四季淨銷售額年增 33%，全年淨銷售額較 2018 年成長 18%。

Q4 and full year 2019 absolute profits and profitability both improved year-on-year.

2019年第四季和全年絕對利潤和獲利能力均較去年同期改善。

For 2020, we are aiming for double-digit sales growth again.

2020年，我們的目標是再次實現兩位數的銷售成長。

Importantly, for a business in growth mode, we added nearly 40 new customers in Q4, including Microsoft, to close with 122 new logos for the year.

重要的是，對於處於成長模式的業務，我們在第四季度增加了近 40 個新客戶，其中包括 Microsoft，全年新增 122 個新商標。

Excellent growth.

優異的成長性。

Two important things for you to consider when assessing our enterprise business.

在評估我們的企業業務時，您需要考慮兩件重要的事情。

First, we have moved quickly to grow the business from less than 5% of our total revenue to about 7% in 2019.

首先，我們迅速採取行動，將業務從佔總收入的不到 5% 增加到 2019 年的 7% 左右。

If we maintain our trajectory, I see no reason why we cannot get to 10% and even beyond.

如果我們保持目前的軌跡，我認為我們沒有理由不能達到 10% 甚至更高。

Second, while we have been very successful in leveraging our routing and optical portfolios in the enterprise, we're now seeing rapid uptake of our wireless capabilities.

其次，雖然我們在企業中利用我們的路由和光纖產品組合非常成功，但我們現在看到我們的無線功能被快速採用了。

We more than doubled the number of private wireless customers in 2019 to around 130 in total and see continued robust demand in the market.

2019 年，我們的私人無線客戶數量增加了一倍多，達到 130 家左右，市場需求持續強勁。

Next, Fixed Networks, which continues to face challenges in the market transition from copper to fiber, as I have noted before.

接下來是固定網絡，正如我之前指出的那樣，它在從銅纜到光纖的市場轉型中繼續面臨挑戰。

We saw some initial signs of progress in Q4, including a lower decline rate in constant currency year-on-year sales and strongly improved profitability compared to first 3 quarters of the year.

我們在第四季度看到了一些初步進展跡象，包括以固定匯率計算的同比銷售額下降幅度較小，以及與今年前三個季度相比，盈利能力大幅提高。

On a full year basis, however, the results from Fixed were disappointing.

然而，從全年來看，Fixed 的業績令人失望。

We continue to have a sharp focus on costs and have targeted selective expansion in new areas, particularly fixed wireless access, where the pipeline is robust.

我們繼續高度關注成本，並有針對性地在新領域進行選擇性擴張，特別是管道健全的固定無線接入。

Finally, even though Nokia Technologies sales were down in both Q4 and full year 2019, profitability remained robust with a 320 basis point increase in operating margin for the full year compared to 2018.

最後，儘管諾基亞科技公司的銷售額在 2019 年第四季和全年均有所下降，但獲利能力仍然強勁，全年營業利潤率較 2018 年增長了 320 個基點。

Excluding 2018 revenue from our divested digital health business, licensing revenues in 2019 were roughly stable.

除去 2018 年我們剝離的數位健康業務的收入，2019 年的授權收入大致穩定。

Our existing license agreements provide us with some near-term stability in this business.

我們現有的授權協議為我們的這項業務提供了一些近期的穩定性。

And as renewal deals come up, we will be adding our strong portfolio of 5G patents into the current licensing package of earlier generations of mobile technology.

隨著續約協議的達成，我們將把強大的 5G 專利組合添加到目前前幾代行動技術的授權包中。

We believe these new patents have meaningful value for us to tap in the future.

我們相信這些新專利對我們未來的開發有重要的價值。

With that, let me turn to giving a regional perspective and to first say that we expect that when all the results are in, we will have gained share in our primary addressable market in every region with the exception of China and Asia Pacific.

接下來，讓我從區域角度來看，首先我們預計，當所有結果出來後，我們將在中國和亞太地區之外的每個地區的主要目標市場中獲得份額。

Asia Pacific, while very strong in many countries, was impacted by India, more on that in just a moment, where we had a slight decline in share, but we will not be sure of how much until we see all of the operators report their 2019 CapEx.

亞太地區雖然在許多國家/地區都非常強大，但受到印度的影響，稍後我們的份額略有下降，但我們無法確定下降幅度，直到我們看到所有運營商都報告了他們的情況。支出。

On a constant currency, full year 2019 basis, we saw sales increase in Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America.

以固定匯率計算，2019 年全年，我們看到亞太地區、歐洲、拉丁美洲和北美的銷售額有所成長。

Sales were down for the same period in Middle East and Africa by 2%, but that was still a good performance in the context of challenging market dynamics.

中東和非洲的銷售額在同一時期下降了 2%，但在充滿挑戰的市場動態背景下，這仍然是一個不錯的表現。

It is also pleasing to see that we have now been chosen by early adopter operators in the leading 5G markets from Sprint and Verizon in the U.S. to SoftBank in Japan to Korea Telecom in South Korea, amongst others, in addition to being selected by Orange in France and O2 in the U.K.

我們也很高興地看到，除了在 2019 年被 Orange 選擇外，我們現在還被美國的 Sprint 和 Verizon、日本的軟銀、韓國的韓國電信等領先 5G 市場的早期採用者運營商選中。的O2

I have already talked in detail about China, and would now like to share some more color on North America and India.

我已經詳細介紹了中國，現在想再分享一些關於北美和印度的色彩。

With 5G deployments progressing in 2019, North America saw 1% constant currency sales growth for the full year, despite a 5% constant currency decline in the fourth quarter.

隨著 2019 年 5G 部署的進展，儘管第四季度貨幣銷售額持續下降 5%，但北美地區全年的貨幣銷售額持續成長 1%。

Uncertainty related to the announced operator merger where we have a large footprint has continued to present challenges.

與我們擁有大量業務的運營商宣布合併相關的不確定性繼續帶來挑戰。

And as I said last quarter, we cannot predict when this situation will be resolved.

正如我上個季度所說，我們無法預測這種情況何時會解決。

We ended the year having launched 5G networks in many U.S. markets and expect that progress to continue in 2020.

去年年底，我們在許多美國市場推出了 5G 網絡，並預計這一進展將在 2020 年繼續下去。

Next, India, which we report as part of the Asia Pacific region, and which is a country where we have a long history and robust share.

接下來是印度，我們將其視為亞太地區的一部分，我們在該國擁有悠久的歷史和強勁的份額。

As I'm sure you know, India's telecom sector is in the midst of some serious turbulence, a general market slowdown after multiple years of heavy 3G and 4G investments by operators was exacerbated when the Indian Supreme Court recently ruled that operators need to pay large accumulated financial liabilities dating back several years.

如您所知，印度電信業正處於嚴重動盪之中，營運商多年來大量投資3G 和4G 後市場普遍放緩，印度最高法院最近裁定營運商需要支付巨額費用，進一步加劇了市場的普遍放緩。

Like other companies in this market, Nokia is now trying to fully understand the full potential impact of these developments and their impact on customer demand and overall market risk.

與該市場上的其他公司一樣，諾基亞現在正試圖充分了解這些發展的全部潛在影響及其對客戶需求和整體市場風險的影響。

It is too early to say how this situation will play out, but it is certainly an area that we are watching closely.

現在說這種情況將如何發展還為時過早，但這肯定是我們正在密切關注的領域。

With that, let me turn the call over to Kristian.

現在，讓我把電話轉給克里斯蒂安。

Thank you, Rajeev.

謝謝你，拉吉夫。

I will take a different approach today than in previous quarters.

今天我將採取與前幾季不同的方法。

I will start with cash, as this is what we do internally nowadays in all our meetings, to remind the organization of the focus needed.

我將從現金開始，因為這是我們現在在所有會議中內部所做的事情，以提醒組織所需的重點。

I will then continue with a brief summary of our financial results for Nokia Technologies and Group Common and Other, then take a look at group-level results in Q4 and full year '19.

然後，我將繼續簡要總結諾基亞科技公司和 Group Common 及其他公司的財務業績，然後看看第四季和 19 年全年的集團業績。

And finally, I will quickly provide an update on our cost savings program and close with some remarks on our guidance.

最後，我將快速提供有關我們的成本節約計劃的最新信息，並以有關我們的指導的一些評論作為結束。

Okay.

好的。

Let's start with our cash performance in Q4.

讓我們從第四季的現金表現開始。

On a sequential basis, Nokia's net cash increased approximately EUR 1.4 billion to a quarter-end balance of approximately EUR 1.7 billion.

諾基亞的淨現金季增約 14 億歐元，季末餘額約 17 億歐元。

The higher-than-expected cash balance was partly driven by lower-than-expected restructuring cash outflows, where approximately EUR 100 million moved from '19 to '20.

現金餘額高於預期的部分原因是重組現金流出低於預期，其中約 1 億歐元從 19 年轉移至 20 年。

Free cash flow was positive EUR 1.4 billion in Q4, primarily driven by operating cash flow, which benefited from a solid adjusted net profit, net cash inflows from net working capital and a onetime benefit as a result of settling certain interest rate derivatives.

第四季自由現金流為正14 億歐元，主要受到營運現金流的推動，營運現金流受益於穩定的調整後淨利、淨營運資本帶來的淨現金流入以及結算某些利率衍生性商品帶來的一次性收益。

This onetime benefit totaled EUR 190 million, of which EUR 160 million positively impacted free cash flow and EUR 30 million positively impacted cash from financing activities.

這項一次性效益總計 1.9 億歐元，其中 1.6 億歐元對自由現金流產生了正面影響，3,000 萬歐元對融資活動現金產生了正面影響。

These inflows were partly offset by outflows related to CapEx, restructuring, cash taxes and a convertible loan to 1 of our partners.

這些流入被與資本支出、重組、現金稅和向我們的一位合作夥伴提供的可轉換貸款相關的流出部分抵消。

To give a bit deeper -- to dive a bit deeper into net working capital, excluding restructuring cash outflows, we generated EUR 320 million from net working capital, primarily driven by a EUR 680 million decrease in inventories as expected.

更深入一點——更深入地研究淨營運資本，不包括重組現金流出，我們從淨營運資本中產生了 3.2 億歐元，這主要是由於庫存按預期減少了 6.8 億歐元。

There were 2 key parts to achieving this.

實現這一目標有兩個關鍵部分。

First, our solid Q4 net sales enabled us to reduce our previously existing inventories in accordance with our plans.

首先，我們穩定的第四季度淨銷售額使我們能夠按照計劃減少先前的庫存。

Secondly, our efforts to optimize our incoming inventories has kicked in strongly.

其次，我們優化庫存的努力已顯著成效。

The team has quickly resumed disciplined execution, and we are pleased to see the improvement in our numbers.

團隊很快就恢復了嚴格的執行力，我們很高興看到我們的數字有所改善。

Offsetting this, receivables increased EUR 360 million, mostly driven by seasonality, partly offset by improved collections, including higher sales of receivables.

抵銷這一影響的是，應收帳款增加了 3.6 億歐元，主要是受到季節性因素的推動，部分是被收款情況的改善（包括應收帳款銷售額的增加）所抵消。

In Q4, we were also able to collect a portion of the overdue receivable from a state-owned operator, and we expect to collect the remainder in the upcoming quarters.

在第四季度，我們也能夠從一家國營營運商收回部分逾期應收帳款，我們預計將在未來幾季收回剩餘部分。

Liabilities were approximately flat, as we did not see typical seasonal increases in accounts payable.

負債大致持平，因為我們沒有看到應付帳款出現典型的季節性成長。

This was due to a combination of 2 things: first, already having high inventory levels earlier in the year; and second, our successful efforts in improving our inventory management.

這是由於兩件事共同造成的：首先，今年早些時候庫存水準已經很高；其次，我們在改善庫存管理方面所做的成功努力。

The strong free cash flow performance in Q4 led to a full year free cash flow that was somewhat negative, as expected.

正如預期的那樣，第四季度強勁的自由現金流表現導致全年自由現金流出現一定程度的負值。

While we are showing signs of progress, there is clearly still more work to be done here.

雖然我們顯示出進展的跡象，但顯然還有更多工作要做。

We have plans for this, and we are making needed changes and we'll track the execution very closely throughout 2020.

我們對此有計劃，我們正在做出必要的改變，我們將在 2020 年密切追蹤執行情況。

As I have explained in the past quarters, the whole Nokia organization has put extensive focus on free cash flow.

正如我在過去幾季所解釋的那樣，整個諾基亞組織都廣泛關注自由現金流。

One area I would like to provide a bit more clarity around is our cash conversion, meaning converting our non-IFRS profits into free cash flow.

我想更清楚說明的一個領域是我們的現金轉換，這意味著將我們的非國際財務報告準則利潤轉換為自由現金流。

We are focused on improving our cash conversion over time.

我們致力於隨著時間的推移提高現金轉換率。

We do, however, have 2 large headwinds in 2020.

然而，2020 年我們確實面臨兩大阻力。

First, our free cash flow continues to be negatively impacted by restructuring.

首先，我們的自由現金流持續受到重組的負面影響。

These outflows amounted to EUR 450 million in '19 and are expected to be EUR 550 million in '20.

19 年的資金流出額為 4.5 億歐元，預計 20 年將達到 5.5 億歐元。

Second, while Nokia Technologies business generates a strong operating profit, the annual free cash flow performance can differ significantly from our P&L performance, both up and down.

其次，雖然諾基亞技術業務產生了強勁的營業利潤，但年度自由現金流表現可能與我們的損益表表現有顯著差異，無論是上升或下降。

This has to do with the structure of some of the agreements, where we receive large prepayments in cash.

這與一些協議的結構有關，在這些協議中我們收到了大量現金預付款。

We put this on our balance sheet and recognize this as net sales over the lifetime of the agreement.

我們將其記入資產負債表，並將其確認為協議有效期內的淨銷售額。

Due to these factors, we expect a substantial gap between P&L performance and free cash flow performance in 2020.

由於這些因素，我們預期 2020 年損益表現與自由現金流表現之間存在較大差距。

Of course, over the life of each agreement, the free cash flow performance matches the P&L performance.

當然，在每份協議的有效期內，自由現金流表現與損益表現相符。

On the other hand, we expect 4 tailwinds for our cash conversion in 2020.

另一方面，我們預計 2020 年我們的現金轉換將面臨 4 個有利因素。

First, the fact that our CapEx is lower than our depreciation and amortization, mainly due to the adoption of IFRS 16.

首先，我們的資本支出低於折舊和攤銷，主要是因為採用了 IFRS 16。

Second, our pensions-related cash outflows are less than our P&L expenses as we can utilize our pension surpluses to offset cash requirements.

其次，我們與退休金相關的現金流出少於我們的損益支出，因為我們可以利用退休金盈餘來抵銷現金需求。

Third, financial interest, where our cash outflows are less than our non-IFRS P&L expenses, mainly due to some noncash expenses related to the interest component of certain customer contracts booked in financial interest.

第三，財務利息，我們的現金流出低於非國際財務報告準則損益費用，主要是由於與某些記入財務利息的某些客戶合約的利息部分相關的一些非現金費用。

And fourth, taxes, where our cash taxes are lower than our non-IFRS P&L taxes due to the utilization of deferred tax assets.

第四，稅收，由於利用了遞延稅資產，我們的現金稅低於非國際財務報告準則損益稅。

The 4 tailwinds are relatively small in size.

4個順風的尺寸相對較小。

And as a result, we face significant overall headwinds when it comes to converting our non-IFRS profits into free cash flow in 2020.

因此，在 2020 年將非 IFRS 利潤轉化為自由現金流時，我們面臨著巨大的整體阻力。

Therefore, our positive recurring free cash flow guidance in 2020 is driven by our assumptions of an improvement in net working capital performance as well as improved operational results.

因此，我們對 2020 年積極的經常性自由現金流指引是基於我們對淨營運資本績效改善以及營運績效改善的假設。

This will be partly offset by a larger expected difference in 2020 between profits and free cash flow in Nokia Technologies.

這將被諾基亞科技公司 2020 年利潤和自由現金流之間較大的預期差異所部分抵銷。

Over time, we expect the gap between our non-IFRS net profit and free cash flow to narrow, particularly as our restructuring cash flows decline.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們的非國際財務報告準則淨利潤與自由現金流之間的差距將會縮小，特別是在我們的重組現金流下降的情況下。

Of course, if we sign any new license agreements that include large cash prepayments, our free cash flow performance could be better than our non-IFRS net profit in 1 quarter or a year.

當然，如果我們簽署任何包含大筆現金預付款的新授權協議，我們的自由現金流表現可能會優於我們第一季或一年的非國際財務報告準則淨利。

And then the gap between our non-IFRS net profit and free cash flow could re-expand.

然後我們的非國際財務報告準則淨利潤和自由現金流之間的差距可能會重新擴大。

Two final points here.

最後還有兩點。

First, a purely accounting topic, and this relates to the implementation of IFRS 16, which involves leasing payments.

首先是一個純粹的會計主題，這涉及 IFRS 16 的實施，其中涉及租賃付款。

This was implemented at the start of '19, which means that our '18 and '19 cash flow statements are not fully comparable.

這是在 19 年初實施的，這意味著我們的 18 和 19 現金流量表不完全可比。

Approximately EUR 220 million of cash outflows that were shown in cash outflows from operating activities in '18 are now shown as cash outflows from financing activities.

18 年經營活動現金流出中顯示的約 2.2 億歐元現金流出現在顯示為融資活動現金流出。

This has a positive impact on our net cash from operating activities and a negative impact on our net cash from financing activities.

這對我們的經營活動淨現金產生正面影響，並對我們的融資活動淨現金產生負面影響。

Also, this had a positive impact on our recurring free cash flow calculation in '19, however, no impact on net cash.

此外，這對我們 19 年的經常性自由現金流計算產生了積極影響，但對淨現金沒有影響。

Second, FX moves can have a large impact on net cash.

其次，外匯波動可能對淨現金產生重大影響。

Then over to Nokia Technologies, where the team finished '19 with good results.

然後轉到諾基亞技術公司，該團隊在 19 年取得了良好的成績。

While Q4 net sales declined 11% year-on-year.

而第四季淨銷售額較去年同期下降11%。

This was primarily related to higher onetime sales in the year-ago quarter.

這主要與去年同期較高的一次性銷售額有關。

Excluding these, net sales would have declined slightly year-on-year.

排除這些因素，淨銷售額將較去年同期略有下降。

Our annualized licensing run rate continues to be EUR 1.4 billion.

我們的年化許可運行率仍為 14 億歐元。

From a profitability perspective, Q4 operating margin improved 310 basis points.

從獲利能力角度來看，第四季營業利潤率提高了 310 個基點。

This was primarily due to lower patent portfolio costs and lower licensing-related litigation costs.

這主要是由於專利組合成本降低以及許可相關訴訟成本降低。

Moving on to Group Common and Other.

繼續討論通用組和其他組。

Net sales declined 11% year-on-year on a constant currency basis, as declines in radio frequency systems or RFS were partly offset by growth in Alcatel Submarine Networks or ASN.

以固定匯率計算，淨銷售額年減 11%，原因是射頻系統或 RFS 的下降被阿爾卡特海底網路或 ASN 的成長部分抵銷。

In RFS, net sales were negatively impacted by temporary CapEx constraints in North America, related to ongoing merger activity as well as the absence of the large customer rollout which benefited the year-ago quarter.

在 RFS 中，淨銷售額受到北美臨時資本支出限制的負面影響，這與正在進行的合併活動以及缺乏去年同期受益的大型客戶推廣有關。

In ASN, growth was driven by the ramp-up of new projects, which are also expected to benefit 2020.

在 ASN，成長是由新項目的增加推動的，預計這些項目也將在 2020 年受益。

ASN closed the year with a very strong order book.

ASN 以非常強勁的訂單量結束了這一年。

The operating loss in Group Common and Other worsened year-on-year, reflecting the following 4 items: first, a negative fluctuation in other income and expenses due to lower gains from our venture fund investments, which benefited the year-ago quarter.

集團普通及其他業務的經營虧損年增率惡化，反映在以下四個方面：首先，由於我們的創投投資收益下降，其他收入和支出出現負波動，這對去年同期有利。

Second, our continued digitalization investments.

其次，我們持續的數位投資。

As I have explained in recent quarters, we are focused on driving automation and increasing productivity.

正如我在最近幾季所解釋的，我們專注於推動自動化和提高生產力。

This resulted in an overall increase in operating expenses of approximately EUR 80 million for the full year '19 compared to full year '18 shown in Group Common and Other, and we expect to continue to invest in digitalization at similar levels in 2020.

這導致 19 年全年的營運支出與「集團普通及其他」中顯示的 18 年全年相比總體增加了約 8000 萬歐元，我們預計 2020 年將繼續以類似水平投資於數位化。

Third, a higher operating loss in RFS, which were primarily driven by lower net sales and a lower gross margin due to unfavorable regional mix.

第三，RFS 的經營虧損較高，這主要是由於不利的區域組合導致淨銷售額下降和毛利率下降所致。

And fourth, the previous 3 items were partly offset by higher operating profit in ASN, primarily resulting from lower operating expenses.

第四，前三項被 ASN 較高的營業利潤部分抵消，主要是因為營業費用較低。

Then looking at Nokia group-level results.

然後再看看諾基亞集團層面的業績。

Net sales were flat in Q4 on a reported basis.

據報告，第四季淨銷售額持平。

That said, we grew 3% excluding the Greater China region, where an increase in competitive intensity, combined with our prudent approach towards deal-making had negative impact on both our Networks business as well as on Nokia Software.

也就是說，不包括大中華地區，我們的成長率為 3%，該地區競爭強度的增加，加上我們謹慎的交易方式，對我們的網路業務以及諾基亞軟體產生了負面影響。

Our non-IFRS operating profit increased slightly year-on-year as our continued cost-saving progress was partly offset by lower operating -- sorry, lower gross profit in Networks.

我們的非國際財務報告準則營業利潤同比略有增長，因為我們持續的成本節約進度被較低的營業利潤所部分抵消——抱歉，網絡毛利較低。

Financial income and expense was an expense of approximately EUR 340 million for the full year '19 and came in below our guidance assumption of EUR 400 million.

2019 年全年的財務收入和支出約為 3.4 億歐元，低於我們 4 億歐元的指導假設。

This was primarily due to lower interest expenses and improved FX results in Q4 '19.

這主要是由於 19 年第 4 季利息支出降低和外匯業績改善。

Taxes for full year '19 were slightly better compared to our expectations.

19 年全年的稅收略好於我們的預期。

Consequently, our results for the full year '19 were in line with the revised guidance range that we provided last quarter.

因此，我們 19 年全年的業績與我們上季度提供的修訂後的指導範圍一致。

Next, a quick update on our cost savings program.

接下來，快速更新我們的成本節約計劃。

2019 marked a year when we made considerable strong progress on our cost savings initiatives.

2019 年是我們在成本節約措施方面取得長足進步的一年。

Excluding the impact of lower incentive accruals, we successfully achieved approximately EUR 200 million recurring cost savings in 2019 as planned, all of which was attributable to operating expenses.

排除應計獎勵減少的影響，我們在 2019 年按計劃成功實現了約 2 億歐元的經常性成本節省，所有這些都歸因於營運費用。

As we complete our program in 2020, we expect to drive an additional EUR 300 million of cost savings.

當我們在 2020 年完成該計劃時，我們預計將額外節省 3 億歐元的成本。

We believe we have good visibility on achieving these savings.

我們相信我們在實現這些節省方面具有良好的可見性。

Just as I indicated, lower incentive accruals had a positive impact on our overall results.

正如我所指出的，較低的應計激勵對我們的整體業績產生了正面影響。

This was reflected in our group level operating expenses for the full year '19 that benefited by approximately EUR 200 million.

這反映在我們 2019 年全年集團層級的營運支出中，收益約為 2 億歐元。

Therefore, modeling group level operating expenses for 2020, assuming we pay out on target annual incentives, and assuming we achieve our expected cost savings targets, our non-IFRS operating expenses in 2020 would be approximately EUR 50 million higher than in 2019.

因此，對2020 年集團層面的營運費用進行建模，假設我們支付年度激勵目標，並實現預期的成本節約目標，那麼我們2020 年的非國際財務報告準則營運費用將比2019 年高出約5,000 萬歐元。

On restructuring cash outflows, as I mentioned earlier, we shifted approximately EUR 100 million from '19 to '20 and now expect cash outflows of approximately EUR 550 million in 2020.

在重組現金流出方面，正如我之前提到的，我們從 19 年到 20 年轉移了約 1 億歐元，現在預計 2020 年現金流出約 5.5 億歐元。

Regarding our network equipment swaps, we have now completed this program, with an end result of coming in EUR 50 million less than what we originally anticipated.

關於我們的網路設備更換，我們現在已經完成了該計劃，最終結果比我們最初的預期少了 5000 萬歐元。

Then turning to our guidance.

然後轉向我們的指導。

We have today reiterated our outlook for 2020, non-IFRS diluted EPS, operating margin and recurring free cash flow.

今天，我們重申了 2020 年、非國際財務報告準則攤薄每股收益、營業利潤率和經常性自由現金流的展望。

As Rajeev mentioned, I wanted to touch briefly on our EPS guidance for full year 2020.

正如 Rajeev 所提到的，我想簡單談談我們 2020 年全年每股收益指引。

Our current guidance is for EUR 0.25 plus/minus EUR 0.05.

我們目前的指導價為 0.25 歐元加/減 0.05 歐元。

We intend on providing updates each quarter on our progress against this range and will adjust the midpoint accordingly, if necessary.

我們打算每個季度提供有關該範圍進展的最新信息，並在必要時相應調整中點。

We have maintained our guidance this quarter.

我們維持本季的指引。

Please note that we expect 2020 to be back-end loaded, similar to what we experienced in '19, with the majority of operating profit and free cash flow to be generated in the fourth quarter.

請注意，我們預計 2020 年將是後端負載，類似於我們在 19 年經歷的情況，大部分營業利潤和自由現金流將在第四季度產生。

Finally, I wanted to note 2 additional risks that we had flagged in our commentary today.

最後，我想指出我們在今天的評論中標記的另外兩個風險。

First, regarding India, where customer demand could weaken and risk could increase further after the Supreme Court upheld a ruling that telecom companies must pay retroactive license and spectrum fees.

首先，關於印度，在最高法院維持電信公司必須支付追溯牌照和頻譜費的裁決後，該國客戶需求可能減弱，風險可能進一步增加。

This potential impact has not been factored into our outlook for full year 2020.

我們對 2020 年全年的展望並未考慮到此潛在影響。

The second risk is regarding the coronavirus and specifically on the potential for temporary disruption, particularly in our supply chain.

第二個風險與冠狀病毒有關，特別是暫時中斷的可能性，特別是在我們的供應鏈中。

While our global supply chain helps to mitigate some of the risk, it is a bit too early to tell if this will have a material impact on our business.

雖然我們的全球供應鏈有助於減輕一些風險，但現在判斷這是否會對我們的業務產生重大影響還為時過早。

Needless to say that we are monitoring the situation closely.

不用說，我們正在密切關注事態發展。

In summary, we intend to show progressive signs of improvements over the course of 2020.

總之，我們打算在 2020 年展現漸進的改進跡象。

We clearly have a lot of work ahead of us, and we will stay focused to ensure continued solid execution in accordance with our plans.

顯然，我們還有很多工作要做，我們將保持專注，確保按照我們的計劃繼續紮實。

With that, I hand over to Matt for Q&A.

就這樣，我將問題交給馬特進行問答。

Thank you, Kristian.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。

For the Q&A session, please limit yourself to 1 question only as a courtesy to everyone else in the queue.

對於問答環節，出於對隊列中其他人的禮貌，請將自己限制在 1 個問題以內。

Kerry, please go ahead.

凱裡，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale CIB.

（操作員說明） 第一個問題將由法國興業銀行 CIB 的 Aleksander Peterc 提出。

Can I come first on your new KPI here, the 35% target that you have for the 5G Powered by ReefShark.

我可以先談談你們的新 KPI，也就是你們為由 ReefShark 提供支援的 5G 設定的 35% 目標嗎？

Is this target constrained by the supply of SoC components, by the timing of supply?

該目標是否受到 SoC 組件供應、供應時間的限制？

Can this improve meaningfully in the course of 2020?

這種情況在 2020 年能得到有意義的改善嗎？

I mean is this a minimum or is there any downside risk to this target?

我的意思是，這是最低目標還是該目標有任何下行風險？

Thank you, Aleksander.

謝謝你，亞歷山大。

So the nature of the risk is very conventional rather than unique.

因此，風險的性質是非常傳統的，而不是獨特的。

We're now executing on a normal SoC development path, with multiple partners instead of only one, as we said last time.

我們現在正在執行正常的 SoC 開發路徑，與多個合作夥伴合作，而不是像我們上次所說的只有一個合作夥伴。

Yes, there are both internal risks and external risks that we need to track and manage.

是的，我們需要追蹤和管理內部風險和外部風險。

While I don't think the time line can necessarily be accelerated, we have improved our capability to track and manage the risks.

雖然我認為時間不一定會加快，但我們已經提高了追蹤和管理風險的能力。

We have increased our SoC R&D capacity by about 60% over the past year, and we continue to ramp up in 2020, so that we can ensure that we have the capability to track and manage both the internal and external risks.

過去一年我們的SoC研發能力增加了約60%，2020年我們將持續提升，以確保我們有能力追蹤和管理內部和外部風險。

And for 2020, we have 3 ReefShark SoCs under development.

到 2020 年，我們正在開發 3 個 ReefShark SoC。

As I said, 2 of these have been taped out already, which is an important milestone.

正如我所說，其中 2 個已經流片，這是一個重要的里程碑。

So while there remains work ahead, this inherently means that some of the overall risk is now in our rearview mirror.

因此，雖然仍有工作要做，但這本質上意味著一些總體風險現在已經在我們的後視鏡中了。

Thank you, Alex.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。

Kerry, we'll take our next question, please.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question will come from David Mulholland of UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的戴維·穆赫蘭提出。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit on the last question.

只是想對最後一個問題進行一些跟進。

Obviously, you've talked a little bit about working with other suppliers in terms of your ASIC strategy.

顯然，您已經談過一些關於與其他供應商合作的 ASIC 策略。

But can you just help us to understand how does your breakdown, particularly in the mobile business, this year between your own internal developed products manufactured at Foundry, with third-party providers?

但您能否協助我們了解今年在 Foundry 製造的內部開發產品與第三方供應商之間的細分情況（尤其是行動業務）如何？

And how do you still drive differentiation when you're using a third party?

當您使用第三方時，如何仍然推動差異化？

Are you giving your own IP going into those products as well?

你們是否也將自己的智慧財產權投入這些產品？

Or is it more of an off-the-shelf solution?

或者它更像是一個現成的解決方案？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

So our SoC strategy has all along been a bit like this.

所以我們的SoC策略一直都有點像這樣。

We specify a custom SoC with a partner.

我們與合作夥伴指定客製化 SoC。

We develop some IP blocks for it.

我們為其開發了一些IP塊。

Our SoC partner has developed some IP blocks.

我們的 SoC 合作夥伴開發了一些 IP 模組。

And then this SoC partner packages the custom SoC for us using our IP blocks, their IP blocks and third-party IP blocks, such as RM processors and the like, and takes the design to Foundry.

然後這個 SoC 合作夥伴使用我們的 IP 模組、他們的 IP 模組和第三方 IP 模組（例如 RM 處理器等）為我們封裝客製化 SoC，並將設計帶到 Foundry。

Now what has changed is that we no longer work with only 1 supplier, but with 2 other SoC partners making custom silicon for us in Mobile Networks.

現在發生的變化是，我們不再只與 1 家供應商合作，而是與另外 2 家 SoC 合作夥伴合作，為我們在行動網路領域製造客製化晶片。

And they all have some unique assets, be it in RF or baseband.

他們都擁有一些獨特的資產，無論是射頻還是基帶。

We've also ramped significantly our own R&D capacity for specification, design and validation of the chips, working with SoC partners.

我們也與 SoC 合作夥伴合作，顯著提高了晶片規格、設計和驗證方面的研發能力。

When we selected new partners, we also made sure that we select somebody who already has some knowledge and has done work with somebody else, so it gives us a running start.

當我們選擇新的合作夥伴時，我們也確保選擇已經具備一定知識並與其他人合作過的人，因此這為我們提供了一個良好的開端。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Kerry, we'll take our next question, please.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question is from Tal Liani of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

First question is just about the coronavirus.

第一個問題是關於冠狀病毒的。

What's the impact, if you see at all?

如果你看到的話，有什麼影響？

And more importantly, I want to speak about software and about semiconductors.

更重要的是，我想談談軟體和半導體。

Last quarter, you spoke about the need for ASIC versus FPGA.

上個季度，您談到了 ASIC 與 FPGA 的需求。

You noted it, the prepared remarks, you related to it.

你注意到了它，準備好的評論，你與之相關。

Would you mind to discuss where you are in the process?

您介意討論一下您在這個過程中的進展嗎？

And how does it help you to bring up gross margins?

它如何幫助您提高毛利率？

I think on the coronavirus, as I said, that we are monitoring the situation closely.

我認為，正如我所說，關於冠狀病毒，我們正在密切監視局勢。

It's too early to call if this will have a material impact or not, if we'll be able to mitigate the situation.

如果我們能夠緩解這種情況，現在判斷這是否會產生實質影響還為時過早。

On the other hand, our global supply chain helps us as a starting point here.

另一方面，我們的全球供應鏈幫助我們作為起點。

We'll update you as we move along here.

當我們繼續前進時，我們會向您通報最新情況。

And Tal, on the question regarding system on chip.

塔爾，關於片上系統的問題。

So we are transitioning from FPGA to system on chip.

所以我們正在從 FPGA 過渡到系統單晶片。

And this is a metric that we'll give you an update, and this is that we got to 10% of 5G Powered by ReefShark system-on-chip portfolio.

這是我們將向您提供更新的一個指標，即我們 10% 的 5G 由 ReefShark 系統單晶片產品組合提供支援。

We started ramping up volumes, and that will get to 35% by the end of this year or greater than 35%, and then 70% by the end of '21, and then this whole thing will be complete, about 100% in 2022.

我們開始增加產量，到今年年底將達到 35% 或超過 35%，然後到 21 年底達到 70%，然後整個事情將完成，到 2022 年大約 100% 。

Thank you, Tal.

謝謝你，塔爾。

Kerry, next question, please.

克里，請下一個問題。

The next question comes from Richard Kramer of Arete Research.

下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Richard Kramer。

Rajeev, potentially turning your back on the China RAN market is a very big move, given the volumes that historically have been coming out of that market.

Rajeev，鑑於歷史上該市場的交易量，放棄中國 RAN 市場可能是一個非常大的舉措。

So can you talk a little bit more about how you balance having your supply chain there and the R&D efforts?

那麼您能多談談您如何平衡供應鏈和研發工作嗎？

And specifically, what the fate of Nokia Shanghai Bell might be if you decide that the profit pool in RAN there isn't worth participating in?

具體來說，如果您認為上海諾基亞貝爾的 RAN 利潤池不值得參與，那麼它的命運會如何？

Richard, so we're not turning our back on China, I want to be very clear about that.

理查德，所以我們不會背棄中國，我想澄清這一點。

We are trying to change our strategy, change our business mix in China, right?

我們正在努力改變我們的策略，改變我們在中國的業務結構，對吧？

So we want to sell more to webscale players, to state-owned enterprises, and with the service providers, i.e., the operators, we want to change the business mix towards a higher proportion of core, routing, fixed access, naturally, be in the game in 4G as well as transport.

因此，我們希望向網路規模參與者、國有企業以及服務提供者（即營運商）出售更多產品，我們希望改變業務組合，以提高核心、路由、固定存取的比例，自然地， 4G 遊戲以及交通。

So increase the business mix with higher margin components.

因此，增加利潤率更高的業務組合。

On 5G, we expect that there will be significant profitability challenges.

在5G方面，我們預期獲利能力將面臨重大挑戰。

Again, we'll look at the case, it needs to make sense for us on a 3- to 4-year basis, and we don't know yet, because the procurement round is yet to come.

我們將再次審視這個案例，它需要在 3 到 4 年的基礎上對我們有意義，但我們還不知道，因為採購回合尚未到來。

But overall, I'd say that we'll still be a sizable player in China.

但總的來說，我想說我們在中國仍然是一個相當大的參與者。

We want to go with the strategy that allows us to increase the business mix in a way that margins are better as well as cash flow is stronger.

我們希望採用的策略能讓我們以更高的利潤率和更強的現金流來增加業務組合。

Thank you, Richard.

謝謝你，理查。

Kerry, next question, please.

克里，請下一個問題。

The next question comes from Alexander Duval of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷山大·杜瓦爾。

Yes, Alexander Duval speaking.

是的，我是亞歷山大·杜瓦爾。

You're guiding to your overall addressable market for the group not to grow in 2020 and then market share to stay stable, meaning implicitly that Nokia wouldn't grow.

您正在指導該集團的整體目標市場在 2020 年不會成長，然後市場份額保持穩定，這意味著諾基亞不會成長。

Given that in 2019, the wireless market actually grew at its fastest rate for some years, with Nokia growing 1%, and then now we're still in the early innings of 5G into 2020, and you're talking about a lower market growth rate and implicitly a lower growth rate for Nokia, does that mean that beyond 2021, there's no further growth the next couple of years for the company?

鑑於 2019 年，無線市場實際上以多年來最快的速度增長，諾基亞增長了 1%，而現在我們仍處於 2020 年 5G 的早期階段，而你談論的是較低的市場增長增長率以及諾基亞的隱含成長率較低，這是否意味著2021 年後，該公司在未來幾年不會進一步成長？

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

So well, number one, last year, excluding China, we grew at a much faster rate, closer to 5%.

那麼，第一，去年，不包括中國，我們的成長速度要快得多，接近 5%。

And then when it comes to this year, the main difference between our previous market outlook and our current market outlook is that we are now presenting these numbers excluding the China market.

然後說到今年，我們之前的市場展望和當前的市場展望之間的主要區別在於，我們現在提供的這些數字不包括中國市場。

Excluding China, our views on the market have not changed significantly over the past 3 months.

除中國外，過去三個月我們對市場的看法並沒有顯著改變。

I've already added some color on China.

我已經為中國添加了一些色彩。

Then when it comes to the market overall, with regard to Mobile Access, we expect that this year, there will be a number of operators that -- last year was about -- last couple of years was about lead countries, lead operators in lead countries.

然後，就整個市場而言，就行動存取而言，我們預計今年將有一些營運商——去年大約是——過去幾年是領先國家，領先營運商處於領先地位國家。

And now it's going to be about 80 to 100 operators starting to roll out 5G at some point this year.

現在，今年某個時候將有大約 80 到 100 家營運商開始推出 5G。

And next year, there'll be another 50, 60 operators rolling out 5G.

明年，將有另外 50、60 家業者推出 5G。

So I expect that 2021 should be the scale phase -- maturity phase of 5G rollouts.

因此，我預計 2021 年應該是 5G 推出的規模階段——成熟階段。

Thank you Alex.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。

Kerry, we'll take our next question, please.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question is from Sandeep Deshpande of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的桑迪普·德什潘德 (Sandeep Deshpande)。

My question is regarding Nokia Technologies.

我的問題是關於諾基亞技術的。

I mean over the last couple of years, I mean the business has gone up and down, but it hasn't been growing very much.

我的意思是，在過去的幾年裡，我的意思是業務有起有落，但成長幅度不大。

Are there more contracts to be got in terms of the smartphone vendors?

智慧型手機供應商是否還會獲得更多合約？

Or is that all essentially done, and now we are waiting for whenever the IoT market happens in Nokia Technologies?

或者說，這一切基本上都已經完成了，現在我們正在等待諾基亞科技公司的物聯網市場何時出現？

Or are there -- is there a near-term growth driver for Nokia Technologies?

或者諾基亞技術公司近期成長動力？

So I think it's fair to say that the majority of the smartphone volume is under license.

因此，我認為可以公平地說，大部分智慧型手機銷量都是經過許可的。

There are still opportunities in the smaller players that we are going after.

我們正在尋找的小型企業仍然有機會。

And from a smartphone point of view, the next thing will be then the renewals, which will then also include the 5G patents that we have.

從智慧型手機的角度來看，下一步就是更新，其中也包括我們擁有的 5G 專利。

And in general, kind of going through the discussion on how devices have become less intelligent, and the network more intelligent.

總的來說，我們正在討論設備如何變得不那麼智能，而網路卻變得更加智能。

And because of that, there is more value in the connectivity.

正因為如此，連結性才具有更多價值。

Then we are kind of going after the growth opportunities outside of smartphones, connected cars is one; other devices, the second.

然後，我們正在尋找智慧型手機以外的成長機會，而連網汽車就是其中之一；其他設備，第二。

And there, the team is making progress landing deals.

在那裡，團隊在達成交易方面取得了進展。

And some of that will take time, will involve longer discussions and some of those deals we are going after directly and some of that opportunity we are addressing through the established patent pools in the industry.

其中一些需要時間，需要更長的討論，其中一些交易是我們直接進行的，還有一些機會是我們透過業界現有的專利池來解決的。

Thank you, Sandeep.

謝謝你，桑迪普。

Kerry, we'll take our next question, please.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question comes from Achal Sultania of Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Achal Sultania。

Rajeev, I'm just trying to understand the -- your comments on China, again.

拉吉夫，我只是想再次理解您對中國的評論。

I guess China revenues are obviously down for you a lot.

我想你的中國收入顯然下降了很多。

You're saying that ex China, your TAM is flat and you grow in line.

你是說，在中國以外，你的 TAM 是平的，你是直線成長的。

So I'm just trying to understand if China has the potential to be down again in 2020 for you and can it have an impact on the growth assumptions for the Networks business, because it's still about 10% of Networks sales?

因此，我只是想了解中國是否有可能在 2020 年再次下滑，是否會對網路業務的成長假設產生影響，因為它仍佔網路銷售額的 10% 左右？

Thanks, Achal.

謝謝，阿查爾。

So it's hard to predict China at this point because of the procurement round.

因此，由於採購輪的原因，目前很難預測中國。

It's gotten delayed, so we don't know what the outcome of the procurement round of 5G is, the CP1.

現在已經延遲了，所以我們不知道5G採購輪CP1的結果是什麼。

But I would say that the strategy that I laid out obviously has -- it's a longer-term strategy, all of it's not going to play out.

但我想說的是，我所製定的戰略顯然是一個長期戰略，所有這些都不會奏效。

So hard to give a sizing of how China will evolve at this point in 2020.

很難預測 2020 年中國會如何發展。

Thank you, Achal.

謝謝你，阿查爾。

Kerry, we'll take our next question.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question is from Stefan Slowinski of Exane BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Stefan Slowinski。

Just a follow-up on the Technologies business.

只是技術業務的後續行動。

There was already a gap, I guess, between the non-IFRS profit and the cash generation over the past few years, and -- well, except for some of the one-offs.

我猜想，過去幾年的非國際財務報告準則利潤和現金產生之間已經存在差距，而且——好吧，除了一些一次性的。

And now you're saying that gap is going to increase in 2020.

現在你說 2020 年差距將會擴大。

I mean can you give us an idea of how much, what's the cash conversion going to be like for the Technologies business?

我的意思是，您能否告訴我們技術業務的現金轉換是多少？

And is that specific to 2020 in terms of timing of contracts?

就合約時間而言，這是針對 2020 年的嗎？

Should we expect that to kind of renormalize in 2021?

我們是否應該預期這種情況在 2021 年能夠重新正常化？

Yes.

是的。

So as I said in my prepared remarks, this is a business where we, from time to time related to some of the contracts, receive upfront payments or payments that are weighted towards the earlier years rather than paid equally over the life of the contract.

正如我在準備好的發言中所說，在這個業務中，我們不時收到與某些合約相關的預付款或按前幾年加權的付款，而不是在合約有效期內平均支付的付款。

And that is what is now having an impact on 2020.

這就是現在對 2020 年產生影響的事情。

So the conversion will go down relative to '19.

因此，相對於 19 年，轉換率將會下降。

And as I said, once we get to a phase where there will be renewals, then depending on how those new -- renewals pan out, there might be an uptick, or we might actually get then large upfront payments again.

正如我所說，一旦我們進入了續約的階段，那麼根據這些新續約的結果，可能會出現上升，或者我們實際上可能會再次獲得大筆預付款。

Let's see how those renewals go.

讓我們看看這些更新進展如何。

I will -- I'm not in a position to quantify this.

我會——我無法量化這一點。

We just want to give you the puts and takes in terms of what is going to drive cash flow development, '19 to '20.

我們只想為您提供 19 年至 20 年推動現金流發展的觀點。

And as I said, the drivers there are why do we go from a slightly negative to a positive, we'll have an improvement in profitability, we'll have an improvement in how we manage our net working capital, but then that will somewhat be offset by the headwind created by the fact that the cash conversion related to Nokia Technologies is slightly worse in 2020 over '19.

正如我所說，驅動因素是為什麼我們從輕微的負面影響轉向正面影響，我們的盈利能力將得到改善，我們的淨營運資本管理方式將得到改善，但這會在某種程度上與諾基亞技術相關的現金轉換在2020 年比19 年稍差，這一事實所產生的不利因素抵消了這一影響。

Thank you, Stefan.

謝謝你，斯特凡。

Kerry, we'll take our next question, please.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question is from Dominik Olszewski of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的多明尼克·奧爾謝夫斯基。

With regards to the useful KPI data you've given on the proportion of shipments on 5G ReefShark, maybe could you give us some idea of the sensitivity of how -- if that accelerates at a faster or slower pace than you expect?

關於您提供的關於 5G ReefShark 出貨量比例的有用 KPI 數據，也許您可以告訴我們一些敏感度——如果增長速度比您預期的更快或更慢？

So versus a, let's say, that 35%, how that impacts your group margin?

那麼，與 35% 相比，這對您的集團利潤有何影響？

First of all, I think it's fair to point out that when we talk about percentage here, it's a shipment-based metric.

首先，我認為可以公平地指出，當我們在這裡談論百分比時，它是一個基於發貨的指標。

And as a result of that, the financial implications of that will come with a lag of a couple of quarters.

因此，其財務影響將滯後幾季。

And of course, if we improve this, then we'll have the product cost improvements coming through earlier, and that's, of course, what the team is focused on.

當然，如果我們改進這一點，那麼我們將更早實現產品成本的改進，這當然是團隊的重點。

Thank you, Dominik.

謝謝你，多米尼克。

Kerry, next question, please.

克里，請下一個問題。

The next question is from Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

下一個問題是保羅·西爾弗斯坦和考恩提出的。

With respect to the margin improvement on Mobile Access, how much of the improvement, if any, is beyond the FPGA to SoC transition?

關於行動接取的利潤率改善，有多少改善（如果有）超出了 FPGA 到 SoC 的過渡範圍？

What are the other levers?

其他槓桿是什麼？

And what are the magnitude, if any?

如果有的話，其大小是多少？

Thanks, Paul.

謝謝，保羅。

So the other levels are Global Services improvement in execution, which has already happened to some degree in 2019, but more needs to continue: automation, digitalization, better contract management and so on.

因此，其他層面是全球服務執行方面的改進，這在 2019 年已經在一定程度上發生了，但還需要繼續：自動化、數位化、更好的合約管理等等。

There is the system-on-chip product cost that we talked about and then there is the better commercial deal discipline, centralized pricing war rooms, exiting some contracts or changing contract terms where there might be the (inaudible).

我們談到了系統單晶片產品成本，然後是更好的商業交易紀律、集中定價戰室、退出一些合約或更改可能存在的合約條款（聽不清楚）。

And they're all important?

它們都很重要嗎？

And they're all important.

它們都很重要。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Thank you, Paul.

謝謝你，保羅。

Kerry, we'll take our next question, please.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question is from Sébastien Sztabowicz with Kepler Cheuvreux.

下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Sébastien Sztabowicz。

Have you quantified the opportunity to swap away the equipment in the core networks in Europe?

您是否量化過更換歐洲核心網路設備的機會？

And also, do you see any opportunity on the RAN market with the 35% market share cap potentially on radio access network in Europe for [RF] vendor?

此外，您是否認為 RAN 市場上有任何機會，[RF] 供應商在歐洲無線接取網路上的市佔率上限可能達到 35%？

Sébastien, so this is a -- it's for policymakers to decide.

塞巴斯蒂安，所以這是由政策制定者決定的。

We watch the situation closely.

我們密切關注事態發展。

We're there for our customers when they need us.

當客戶需要我們時，我們隨時為他們服務。

We have been -- we have, as we said, in our conversion rate or the win rate of 5G, outside of China, it's about 100%.

正如我們所說，在中國以外的地區，我們的轉換率或 5G 的獲勝率約為 100%。

We also won a very nice deal in Vodafone Hutchison Australia, which is a sole supply deal.

我們還贏得了沃達豐和記澳洲公司的一項非常好的交易，這是一項獨家供應交易。

In terms of core, yes, there is the opportunity in Europe, but we'll just watch it, and we have to be thoughtful about swap costs and things like that in terms of how much share we want to take prudently.

就核心而言，是的，歐洲有機會，但我們只會觀察它，我們必須考慮互換成本以及類似的事情，即我們想要謹慎地佔據多少份額。

Thank you, Sébastien.

謝謝你，賽巴斯蒂安。

Kerry, we'll take our next question.

克里，我們將回答下一個問題。

The next question is from Simon Leopold of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的西蒙·利奧波德。

I wanted to see if maybe you could double-click on attaching the changes in the mobility business to overall gross margin, specifically, the effect of declining, presumably, profitable 4G business as you're making this transition to the system on chip in 5G, how do we think about how material the effect of that would be on overall gross margin through the year?

我想看看您是否可以雙擊將行動業務的變化與整體毛利率聯繫起來，特別是當您向 5G 晶片系統過渡時，可能盈利的 4G 業務下降的影響，我們如何看待這對全年整體毛利率的影響有多大？

Okay.

好的。

As we've said, the more system on chip deliveries we get, the better the cost position of the Nokia 5G product is, and that will then, all other things equal, flow through to an improvement in gross margin.

正如我們所說，我們交付的晶片系統越多，諾基亞 5G 產品的成本地位就越好，在其他條件相同的情況下，這將導致毛利率的提高。

With that, we will also be able to get, as we get to scale in 5G, to a situation where 5G gross margins in general are at a level that actually, the shift in mix from 4G to 5G will have less of an impact on the gross margin development going forward.

這樣，隨著 5G 規模的擴大，5G 毛利率總體處於這樣一個水平，實際上，從 4G 到 5G 的組合轉變對 5G 的影響較小。

So I'm not sure if I understand the question, but that's, of course, what we manage.

所以我不確定我是否理解這個問題，但這當然是我們所管理的。

And then, as Rajeev said, it's about how do we, with deal discipline, get further improvements, how do we get improvements through better operational performance in services.

然後，正如拉吉夫所說，這是關於我們如何透過交易紀律獲得進一步的改進，我們如何透過更好的服務營運績效來獲得改進。

And those things will also then drive gross margins going forward.

這些事情也將推動未來的毛利率。

And of course, that's -- Simon, a Mobile Access comment.

當然，那就是——Simon，一位 Mobile Access 評論者。

And so when you step back and say better mix in Enterprise and Nokia Software and IP routing, will also improve gross margins potentially.

因此，當您退後一步說，企業軟體和諾基亞軟體以及 IP 路由的更好組合也可能會提高毛利率。

Thank you, Simon.

謝謝你，西蒙。

Kerry, I think we have time for our final question of the day.

克里，我想我們有時間回答今天的最後一個問題。

The final question will come from Edward Snyder of Charter Equity.

最後一個問題將由 Charter Equity 的愛德華·斯奈德提出。

Rajeev, I'd like to revisit Richard Kramer's question, I think, and correct me if I'm wrong, but he wasn't asking you about leaving China, he was asking about leaving the RAN market in China, which is, I think, a very valid question, given you've already pointed out that 60% of the market for this business.

Rajeev，我想我想重新審視 Richard Kramer 的問題，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但他不是在問你是否離開中國，而是在問你是否離開中國的 RAN 市場，也就是說，我認為，這是一個非常有效的問題，因為您已經指出該業務佔據了60% 的市場。

I mean it's a little confusing on my end, because if you rotate to the United States, but if you look at the lay of the land, to the [main] carriers, T-Mobile and AT&T have backed off the discussions with millimeter wave.

我的意思是，這對我來說有點令人困惑，因為如果你轉向美國，但如果你看看這片土地的情況，對於[主要]運營商來說，T-Mobile 和AT&T 已經放棄了與毫米波的討論。

T-Mobile's going to put 5 -- [T-Mobile] already has put it on band 71, which doesn't require MIMO at all.

T-Mobile 將把 5 放在頻段上 - [T-Mobile] 已經將其放在頻段 71 上，該頻段根本不需要 MIMO。

And AT&T is talking about putting on FirstNet, which is an established network that may not use MIMO.

AT&T 正在討論部署 FirstNet，這是一個可能不使用 MIMO 的成熟網路。

So I'm just curious, if you do back out of just the RAN market, not China completely, where do you rotate to, to gain share, especially if the U.S. is -- isn't going to be deploying a lot of MIMOs?

所以我很好奇，如果你真的退出 RAN 市場，而不是完全退出中國，你會轉向哪裡來獲得份額，特別是如果美國不會部署大量 MIMO ？

Verizon hits their 31-city target, but very few cells in many of the cities, maybe a couple of streets and is struggling to get siting requirements there.

Verizon 實現了覆蓋 31 個城市的目標，但許多城市中的基地台很少，可能只有幾條街道，而且正在努力滿足那裡的選址要求。

So can you maybe give us a little bit more detail on how that works to keep your costs and your scaling in the RAN market competitive, if you're not addressing China's RAN market?

那麼，如果您不針對中國的 RAN 市場，您能否給我們更多詳細信息，說明如何保持您的成本和在 RAN 市場中的擴展競爭力？

Thanks, Edward.

謝謝，愛德華。

So just quick, in the U.S., there will be low-band build that's starting to be underway now.

所以很快，在美國，低頻段的建設將會開始進行。

There will be mid-band, that will still take maybe a couple of years, but the 3.7 to 4.2 CBRS, et cetera.

將會有中頻段，這可能仍然需要幾年的時間，但 3.7 到 4.2 CBRS 等等。

On the enterprise side, there will be private wireless build, think about utilities, large field area network.

在企業方面，將會有專用無線建設，考慮公用事業、大型現場區域網路。

So there are opportunities on the U.S. side.

所以美國方面是有機會的。

Then, of course, as I said, we expect some 80 to 100 operators starting to roll out 5G in the rest of the world.

當然，正如我所說，我們預計大約有 80 到 100 家營運商開始在世界其他地區推出 5G。

And that's this year, and then next year, we expect another 50 or 60.

今年就是這樣，明年我們預計還會有 50 或 60 個。

So it'll start to be a scale market in terms of 5G maturity.

因此，就 5G 成熟度而言，它將開始成為一個規模市場。

On China, again, we're not saying we're backing out of the RAN market.

再次強調，關於中國，我們並不是說我們要退出 RAN 市場。

We're still there in 4G.

我們仍然處於 4G 時代。

We'll be prudent in 5G.

我們在5G方面會持謹慎態度。

I do want to point out that even if we say it's 60% of the global volume, it is roughly half of that in terms of revenue market share, i.e., China RAN as a percentage of total market, and it's minuscule in terms of profit contribution over the next 3 years or so.

我想指出的是，即使我們說佔全球總量的60%，但從收入市場份額（即中國RAN佔總市場的比例）來看，大約只有一半，而從利潤角度來看，它是微乎其微的。

Thank you, Ed, and thank you all for your questions today.

謝謝你，艾德，也謝謝大家今天提出的問題。

I'd now like to turn the call back to Rajeev.

我現在想把電話轉回拉吉夫。

So thank you, Matt and Kristian, and thanks to all of you for your questions.

謝謝馬特和克里斯蒂安，也謝謝大家提出的問題。

I'd like to close with a couple of brief thoughts.

最後我想談幾點簡短的想法。

First, I want to say again that we have heard you, our investors and other stakeholders.

首先，我想再說一遍，我們聽取了你們、我們的投資者和其他利害關係人的意見。

We are taking steps to give you some better visibility to the work we have underway.

我們正在採取措施，讓您更了解我們正在進行的工作。

And as part of that effort, Nokia will hold a Capital Markets Day for investors in the second half of this year in order to give you a deeper perspective on our strategy and operational progress.

作為這項努力的一部分，諾基亞將在今年下半年為投資者舉辦資本市場日活動，以便讓您更深入了解我們的策略和營運進度。

Second, despite the challenges that we have faced in Mobile Access, other parts of our business continue to perform well in 2019.

其次，儘管我們在行動存取方面面臨挑戰，但我們的其他業務在 2019 年仍然表現良好。

We closed the year demonstrating sustained momentum with product leadership in areas like our FP4 based routing products and made good progress in our strategic areas of Enterprise and Software.

我們在基於 FP4 的路由產品等領域展示了產品領先地位的持續勢頭，並在企業和軟體策略領域取得了良好進展。

Finally, while I believe that 2020 will present its share of challenges, I remain confident that we are taking the right steps to deliver progressive improvement over the course of this year and to position us for a stronger 2021.

最後，雖然我相信 2020 年將面臨一些挑戰，但我仍然相信，我們正在採取正確的步驟，在今年實現逐步改進，並為我們迎接更強勁的 2021 年做好準備。

With that, I'll hand the call back over to Matt.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給馬特。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference call.

女士們先生們，我們的電話會議到此結束。

I would like to remind you that during the conference call today, we have made a number of forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.

我想提醒大家的是，在今天的電話會議中，我們做了一些涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results currently expected.

因此，實際結果可能與目前預期的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause such differences can be both external, such as general economic and industry conditions as well as internal operating factors.

可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素，例如總體經濟和行業狀況，也可以是內部營運因素。

We have identified these in more detail on Pages 60 through 75 of our 2018 annual report on Form 20-F, our financial report for Q4 and full year 2019 issued today as well as our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們在 2018 年年度報告 20-F 的第 60 至 75 頁、今天發布的第四季度和 2019 年全年財務報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中更詳細地確定了這些內容。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you all for attending today's presentation.

感謝大家參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。