諾基亞 (NOK) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello and welcome to the Nokia First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    您好,歡迎參加諾基亞 2020 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • Please also note today's event is being recorded.

    另請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Matt Shimao, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

    現在,我想把電話會議轉給投資人關係主管Matt Shimao先生。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Matt Shimao - Head of IR

    Matt Shimao - Head of IR

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Nokia's first quarter conference call. I'm Matt Shimao, Head of Nokia Investor Relations. Rajeev Suri, President and CEO of Nokia; and Kristian Pullola, CFO of Nokia are here with me via conference call today.

    謝謝。女士們、先生們,歡迎參加諾基亞第一季電話會議。我是諾基亞投資者關係主管馬特·世茂。 Rajeev Suri,諾基亞總裁兼執行長;諾基亞財務長克里斯蒂安·普拉拉 (Kristian Pullola) 今天透過電話會議與我會面。

  • During this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements regarding the future business and financial performance of Nokia and this industry. These statements are predictions that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results we currently expect. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external, such as general economic and industry conditions as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in more detail in the section titled, operating and financial review and prospects, risk factors of our 2019 annual report on Form 20-F, our financial report for Q1, published today on Form 6-K, where we have added a COVID-19 risk factor as well as our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Please note that our results release, the complete interim report with tables and the presentation on our website include non-IFRS results information, in addition to the reported results information. Our complete financial report with tables available on our website includes a detailed explanation of the content of the non-IFRS information and a reconciliation between the non-IFRS and the reported information.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將就諾基亞和該行業的未來業務和財務業績做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是涉及風險和不確定性的預測。因此,實際結果可能與我們目前預期的結果有重大差異。可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素,例如總體經濟和行業狀況,也可以是內部營運因素。我們在2019 年年度報告(表格20-F)和今天發布的表格6-K 上的第一季度財務報告的標題為“運營和財務回顧及前景、風險因素”的部分中更詳細地識別了此類風險,其中我們有添加了 COVID-19 風險因素以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。請注意,我們的業績發布、帶有表格的完整中期報告以及我們網站上的演示文稿,除了報告的業績資訊外,還包括非國際財務報告準則的業績資訊。我們的完整財務報告以及網站上提供的表格包括對非國際財務報告準則資訊內容的詳細解釋以及非國際財務報告準則與報告資訊之間的調節。

  • With that, Rajeev, over to you.

    好了,拉吉夫,交給你了。

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Matt, and thanks to all of you for joining. I hope that you're all keeping well and safe in these unprecedented times. As we all know, events related to the COVID-19 pandemic are moving quickly and the global economic outlook remains uncertain.

    謝謝馬特,也謝謝大家的加入。我希望你們在這個前所未有的時期保持健康和安全。眾所周知,與 COVID-19 大流行相關的事件正在迅速發展,全球經濟前景仍然存在不確定性。

  • I want to start by briefly making 4 high level points about Nokia's first quarter. First, we made steady progress in our Mobile Access business, as our transformation and product cost reduction efforts started to take hold. Second, our Q1 showed broad year-on-year profitability improvements, thanks to strong performance across our portfolio, including Enterprise and Software, supported by continued discipline on costs. Third, we remain highly focused on generating cash and took a number of actions in Q1 to improve our total cash position in what is a seasonally slower quarter. And fourth, we are adjusting the midpoints within our previously disclosed outlook ranges for full-year 2020 to reflect the increased risks and uncertainty presented by the ongoing COVID-19 situation.

    首先,我想簡要闡述有關諾基亞第一季的 4 個要點。一是行動接取業務穩步推進,轉型降本初顯成效。其次,由於我們的產品組合(包括企業和軟體)的強勁表現,以及持續嚴格的成本控制,我們第一季的獲利能力較去年同期大幅提高。第三,我們仍然高度關注創造現金,並在第一季採取了一系列行動,以在季節性放緩的季度改善我們的總現金狀況。第四,我們正在調整先前揭露的 2020 年全年展望範圍的中點,以反映持續的 COVID-19 情況帶來的風險和不確定性增加。

  • We expect the majority of this COVID-19 impact will be in Q2 and believe that our industry is fairly resilient to the crisis, although not immune. With that as an introduction, I will focus the rest of my remarks on 2 main areas: one, our Q1 highlights and the progress we are making in Mobile Access and other parts of our business; and two, the unusual situation with regard to COVID 19.

    我們預計 COVID-19 的影響大部分將出現在第二季度,並相信我們的行業對這場危機具有相當的彈性,儘管也不能倖免。作為介紹,我其餘的發言將集中在兩個主要領域:一是我們第一季的亮點以及我們在行動存取和其他業務方面取得的進展;第二,關於 COVID 19 的不尋常情況。

  • Now to the quarter. When I spoke to you when we announced our Q4 results, I said I expected to see progressive performance improvement over the course of 2020, and Q1 was largely consistent with this expectation. Non-IFRS Nokia level operating margin was up significantly from Q1 2019, rising 3.6 percentage points, while non-IFRS operating profit landed at EUR 116 million. An important driver behind that was the improvement in the Networks Business Group's gross margin, which increased year-on-year by 3.5 percentage points, largely driven by gross margin expansion in Mobile Access. In addition, the Nokia level operating margin was also improved by the profitability strength in Nokia Software and a decrease in Nokia level operating costs, including both SG&A and R&D costs. The decrease, particularly in networks R&D expenses was primarily due to progress related to Nokia's cost savings program, which was partially offset by additional critical 5G investments to accelerate our product road maps and cost competitiveness in Mobile Access.

    現在到季度。當我在宣布第四季業績時與大家交談時,我說我預計 2020 年業績將逐步改善,而第一季與這一預期基本一致。諾基亞非 IFRS 水平營業利潤率較 2019 年第一季大幅上升 3.6 個百分點,非 IFRS 營業利潤達到 1.16 億歐元。背後一個重要的推動因素是網路事業群毛利率的改善,較去年同期成長3.5個百分點,主要得益於行動接取毛利率的擴張。此外,諾基亞軟體的獲利能力以及諾基亞營運成本(包括銷售、行政管理和研發成本)的下降也提高了諾基亞營運利潤率。這一下降,特別是網路研發費用的下降,主要是由於諾基亞成本節約計劃的進展,但這一下降被為加快我們的產品路線圖和行動接入成本競爭力而進行的額外關鍵5G 投資部分抵消。

  • Nokia Enterprise again delivered double-digit year-on-year constant currency sales growth and Nokia Software demonstrated again, how to drive top line growth with a clear focus on operational discipline and excellent profitability.

    諾基亞企業再次實現了兩位數的年比固定貨幣銷售額成長,諾基亞軟體再次展示如何透過明確關注營運紀律和卓越的獲利能力來推動營收成長。

  • Importantly, we enhanced our total cash position in the quarter to EUR 6.3 billion, up sequentially by EUR 300 million, and Kristian will address in more detail, both our cash position and Nokia Technologies later on.

    重要的是,我們本季的總現金部位增加至 63 億歐元,比上一季增加了 3 億歐元,克里斯蒂安稍後將更詳細地討論我們的現金部位和諾基亞技術。

  • Now to the progress in Mobile Access, which is the combination of our product-focused Mobile Networks business group and our Global Services organization. In our Q4 2019 results, I spoke about how we continue to have a sharp focus on executing in our Mobile Access business and that we expected to make good progress in our turnaround this year.

    現在談談行動接取的進展,它是我們以產品為中心的行動網路業務部門和全球服務組織的結合。在我們 2019 年第四季的業績中,我談到了我們如何繼續專注於行動接取業務的執行,以及我們預計今年的扭虧為盈將取得良好進展。

  • I'm pleased to say that our first quarter performance continues to support this expectation, notwithstanding the adjustment of the midpoints of Nokia's full-year guidance today due to the risk and uncertainty presented by the current COVID-19 situation. Mobile Access saw improvements driven by product cost reductions, regional mix, strengthened operational performance in services and supported by continued competitive scale. Despite the majority of our R&D employees working from home, our road maps are on track. And in fact, some key software releases are proceeding ahead of schedule. As I said in Q4, our focus in mobile access is on 4 key areas: first, improving profitability through consistent product cost reductions; second, maintaining scale to be competitive; third, enhancing commercial management and deal discipline; and fourth, further strengthening operational performance and services.

    我很高興地說,儘管由於當前 COVID-19 情況帶來的風險和不確定性,諾基亞今天對全年指引的中點進行了調整,但我們第一季的業績繼續支持了這一預期。在產品成本降低、區域組合、服務營運績效增強以及持續競爭規模的支援下,行動接取取得了進步。儘管我們的大多數研發員工在家工作,但我們的路線圖仍在按計劃進行。事實上,一些關鍵軟體的發布正在提前進行。正如我在第四季所說,我們在行動接取方面的重點有4個關鍵領域:第一,透過持續降低產品成本來提高獲利能力;第二,保持規模,保持競爭力;三是加強商務管理和交易紀律。四是進一步強化經營績效與服務。

  • Let me touch on each of these in more detail. First, as of today, we are tracking in line against our original plan with 5G powered by ReefShark products, accounting for 17% of our 5G shipments in Q1. We still expect to end the year at more than 35% despite the prospect of further COVID-19 related economic impacts. As a reminder, we typically see approximately a 6-month delay between shipments and impact on financial performance. We saw some important product launches in Q1, including our Dynamic Spectrum Sharing or DSS solution. Our unique solution goes beyond 4G to 5G to include dynamic sharing between 2G, 3G and 4G, offering a smooth path to 5G deployments. Initial deliveries of Nokia's DSS solution for which there has already been significant interest from operators are starting now, with volume shipments expected by July.

    讓我更詳細地討論其中的每一個。首先,截至今天,我們正在按照最初的計劃追蹤由 ReefShark 產品支援的 5G,占我們第一季 5G 出貨量的 17%。儘管與 COVID-19 相關的經濟影響可能會進一步增加,但我們預計今年年底的成長率仍將超過 35%。提醒一下,我們通常會看到出貨之間大約有 6 個月的延遲,並對財務表現產生影響。我們在第一季發布了一些重要產品,包括我們的動態頻譜共享或 DSS 解決方案。我們獨特的解決方案超越 4G 到 5G,包括 2G、3G 和 4G 之間的動態共享,為 5G 部署提供順暢的路徑。營運商已經對諾基亞 DSS 解決方案產生了濃厚的興趣,其首批交付現已開始,預計將於 7​​ 月批量發貨。

  • The second KPI relates to maintaining scale and specifically, scale related to mobile radio products. In Q4, I stated that we expect Nokia to stabilize its 4G plus 5G market share at approximately 27% by the end of 2020, excluding China. Q1 results support this statement, and we believe we remain on track. We continue to have the scale necessary to remain competitive.

    第二個 KPI 涉及維持規模,特別是與行動無線電產品相關的規模。我在第四季表示,我們預計諾基亞到 2020 年底將其 4G+5G 市佔率穩定在 27% 左右(不包括中國)。第一季的結果支持了這一說法,我們相信我們仍處於正軌。我們繼續擁有保持競爭力所需的規模。

  • The third KPI is our 5G win rate. For Q1 2020, our 5G win rate, excluding China, continued to be over 100%, reflecting a strong performance across a number of regions, and is in the mid-90% range, including China, in line with our expectations.

    第三個KPI是我們的5G勝率。 2020 年第一季度,我們的 5G 勝率(不包括中國)持續超過 100%,反映出多個地區的強勁表現,而包括中國在內的 5G 勝率處於 90% 左右,符合我們的預期。

  • While the overall results did not change, we saw a reduced footprint at a customer in Asia Pacific, offset by gains with the customer in North America. Again, this was in line with our expectations. As of today, with our recent win with ReefShark, we have 70 5G deal wins and 21 live networks deployed. New customers in Q1 included Chunghwa Telecom in Taiwan, Orange Slovakia and Bell Canada. And pleasingly, we are quite optimistic that we will win a share of 5G core with China Unicom, although, we have not yet received official notification. Staying with China, we have consistently said, we would take a prudent approach to pursuing market share, given the profitability and cash challenges there. Given that, we have prioritized our 5G radio activities on features that are required globally and for markets with better economics and have avoided specific local requirements. We will remain a meaningful player in China. We have a large 4G installed base, ongoing attached independent services and continued opportunities in the broader 5G buildout with China's major operators in areas such as fixed, IP routing and optical. We also see potential with the large enterprise customers we are focusing on and have made particularly good progress, providing data center interconnect to the country's leading web scale companies. A return to 5G radio at some point in the future is also not out of the question. But keep in mind that our approach has to remain prudent.

    雖然整體結果沒有變化,但我們發現亞太地區客戶的足跡有所減少,但被北美客戶的成長所抵消。這再次符合我們的預期。截至今天,隨著我們最近贏得了 ReefShark,我們已經贏得了 70 筆 5G 交易並部署了 21 個即時網路。第一季的新客戶包括台灣中華電信、Orange 斯洛伐克和加拿大貝爾。令人高興的是,我們非常樂觀地認為我們將贏得中國聯通的5G核心份額,儘管我們尚未收到正式通知。我們一直表示,鑑於中國的獲利能力和現金挑戰,我們將採取謹慎的態度來爭取市場份額。有鑑於此,我們優先考慮全球和經濟狀況較好的市場所需的 5G 無線電活動,並避免了特定的本地要求。我們將繼續在中國發揮重要作用。我們擁有龐大的 4G 安裝基礎、持續的附加獨立服務以及與中國主要營運商在固定、IP 路由和光纖等領域進行更廣泛的 5G 建設的持續機會。我們也看到了我們所關注的大型企業客戶的潛力,並取得了特別好的進展,為國內領先的網路規模公司提供資料中心互連。未來某個時候回歸 5G 無線電也不是不可能的。但請記住,我們的方法必須保持謹慎。

  • Finally, let me now say a few words on services, which produced substantially expanded year-on-year profits in Q1. This was driven by structural improvements in deployment services, as we successfully drove digitalization and automation efforts. Services exited several more low-performing projects in Q1 and we continue to make progress in turning around other low-margin managed services deals. We expect a high level of network deployment services, as new 5G builds continue, although we do see some COVID-19 risk hampering some technology deployments due to challenges with getting on-site access.

    最後,我想談談服務業,第一季服務業利潤較去年同期大幅成長。這是由部署服務的結構改進所推動的,因為我們成功地推動了數位化和自動化工作。服務業在第一季度退出了多個表現不佳的項目,我們在扭轉其他低利潤託管服務交易方面繼續取得進展。隨著新 5G 建設的繼續,我們預計將提供高水準的網路部署服務,儘管我們確實看到由於現場存取方面的挑戰,一些 COVID-19 風險阻礙了某些技術部署。

  • So to conclude on Mobile Access. We are making the expected progress in our 4 key areas.

    關於行動訪問的結論。我們正在 4 個關鍵領域取得預期進展。

  • Now to our other business groups. As I alluded to earlier, our strategic focus areas of Nokia Enterprise and Nokia Software maintained strong momentum. Nokia Enterprise delivered year-on-year constant currency revenue growth of 19%. Enterprise added 30 new logos in the quarter, including Infrastructure Networks Inc., PGE Systemy of Poland and SGP of Paris. Despite the current economic environment, we believe that we have a resilient customer base in enterprise for mission-critical networks due to the verticals that we focus on.

    現在介紹一下我們的其他業務部門。正如我之前提到的,我們的諾基亞企業和諾基亞軟體策略重點領域保持強勁勢頭。諾基亞企業版以固定匯率計算的營收年增 19%。 Enterprise 在本季增加了 30 個新商標,包括基礎設施網路公司、波蘭的 PGE Systemy 和巴黎的 SGP。儘管當前的經濟環境如此,但我們相信,由於我們專注於垂直行業,我們在企業中擁有彈性的關鍵任務網絡客戶群。

  • In Nokia Software, I think it is also fair to say that the decision we took a few years ago to rewrite our applications on to Nokia's cloud-native Common Software Foundation to serve 5G and increasingly, digital customer needs is paying off when you look at both how Nokia Software is performing relative to our competitors in the telco software space and in today's environment that is making cloud-based digitalization an even more critical business necessary.

    在諾基亞軟體方面,我認為也可以公平地說,我們幾年前做出的決定,即在諾基亞的雲原生通用軟體基礎上重寫我們的應用程序,以服務5G 和日益增長的數位客戶需求,當您看到以下結果時,我們正在獲得回報:諾基亞軟體相對於我們的競爭對手在電信軟體領域的表現以及當今的環境使得基於雲端的數位化成為更加重要的業務必要性。

  • Nokia Software's year-on-year constant currency net sales grew 12% and profitability was up sharply across the board, with an operating margin increasing almost 13 percentage points year-on-year. I would caution that software's strong performance in Q2 2019 and the COVID-19 risks related to our business generally, give us a tough year-on-year comparison in the second quarter. Still, software's business execution has been solid and its trajectory is on a path where we want it to be.

    諾基亞軟體以固定匯率計算淨銷售額年增12%,獲利能力全面大幅上升,營業利益率較去年同期成長近13個百分點。我要提醒大家的是,軟體在 2019 年第二季的強勁表現以及與我們業務相關的 COVID-19 風險總體上使我們在第二季的同比比較變得艱難。儘管如此,軟體的業務執行一直很穩健,而且它的發展軌跡也正朝著我們希望的方向發展。

  • Now to IP and optical networks, or ION, which also continued its strong underlying execution and increased its product leadership credentials in the quarter.

    現在是 IP 和光纖網路 (ION),該網路在本季也繼續其強大的基礎執行力並提高了其產品領先地位。

  • ION's year-on-year constant currency sales declined due to Q1 2019 being a particularly strong quarter, which benefited from pent-up demand from -- for some of our newly introduced FB4 products. The Q1 sales decline also stemmed from some supply chain headwinds related to COVID-19 that prevented us from delivering to certain customers. Still, the business fundamentals showed continued strength with both IP Routing and Optical Networks holding a strong order book. IP Routing also continued to demonstrate its technology leadership position, with Nokia being named in the quarter as a top company, globally, in IP edge routing. We do see some potential to recover some of what we came up short on in Q1, as we currently see good routing demand in Q2 on the back of traffic growth. In Optical Networks, year-on-year constant currency sales dropped 2%, though that was due entirely to supply constraints stemming from COVID-19 and not related to demand. We expect these constraints to improve in Q2. Our Fixed Access business saw a strongly improved order intake year-on-year, led by North America and Europe. The higher gross margin in Fixed Access was primarily due to a more favorable product mix, with less digital home net sales in China as well as a higher gross margin in digital home, driven in part by improved product cost. Now to the regions, and I aim to be brief here. Given that I've already addressed China, let me start with North America, our biggest market by sales.

    由於 2019 年第一季是一個特別強勁的季度,ION 的以固定匯率計算的銷售額同比下降,這得益於我們新推出的一些 FB4 產品的被壓抑的需求。第一季銷售額下降也源自於與 COVID-19 相關的一些供應鏈阻力,導致我們無法向某些客戶交付產品。儘管如此,業務基本面仍顯示出持續強勁的勢頭,IP 路由和光網絡業務都擁有強勁的訂單。 IP 路由也繼續展示其技術領先地位,諾基亞在本季被評為 IP 邊緣路由領域的全球頂級公司。我們確實看到了恢復第一季的一些不足的潛力,因為我們目前看到在流量成長的支持下,第二季的路由需求良好。在光網路領域,以固定匯率計算的銷售額年減了 2%,但這完全是由於 COVID-19 造成的供應限制,與需求無關。我們預計這些限制將在第二季得到改善。我們的固定接入業務的訂單量較去年同期大幅增加,其中北美和歐洲領先。固定接取毛利率較高主要是因為較有利的產品組合,中國數位家庭淨銷售額減少,而數位家庭毛利率較高,部分原因是產品成本改善。現在談談各個地區,我想在這裡簡單介紹一下。鑑於我已經談到了中國,讓我從北美開始,這是我們銷售額最大的市場。

  • Despite merger-related uncertainty during most of Q1, top line in North America remained flat in constant currency, reflecting customer demands for strengthening network infrastructure due to people working from home. We see this from certain operators who have recently announced increases in capital expenditure and across different businesses from IP routing to Nokia Software.

    儘管第一季大部分時間存在與合併相關的不確定性,但以固定匯率計算,北美地區的營收仍持平,這反映出由於人們在家工作而導致客戶對加強網路基礎設施的需求。我們從最近宣布增加資本支出以及從 IP 路由到諾基亞軟體等不同業務的某些營運商身上看到了這一點。

  • Middle East and Africa had a strong quarter with top line growth of 8% year-on-year in constant currency, with particular strength in Saudi Arabia, where we have large 5G network rollouts ongoing with Mobily, STC and Zen. Then India, which we report within our Asia Pacific region, constant currency sales fell, stemming in part from the uncertainty following a Supreme Court ruling that was recently upheld, requiring telco operators to pay back-taxes, and we see pressure continuing in Q2. While uncertainty in this market remains high, you may have seen in the media that we announced this week, together with Bharti Airtel, a multiyear deal in India, the second largest telecoms market by subscribers. This deal will boost Bharti Airtel's network capacity, lay the foundations of 5G in India and includes Nokia's Single Radio Access Network, AirScale Radio Access and baseband services. In addition, Nokia Global Services will play a crucial role in the installation planning and deployment of the project.

    中東和非洲季度表現強勁,以固定匯率計算,營收年增 8%,其中沙烏地阿拉伯表現尤其強勁,我們正在當地透過 Mobily、STC 和 Zen 大規模部署 5G 網路。然後,我們在亞太地區報告的印度,恆定貨幣銷售額下降,部分原因是最近維持最高法院裁決的不確定性,該裁決要求電信業者補繳稅款,我們看到第二季的壓力持續存在。儘管這個市場的不確定性仍然很高,但您可能已經在媒體上看到了我們本周宣布與 Bharti Airtel 一起在印度(按用戶計算的第二大電信市場)達成的一項多年協議。這筆交易將提升 Bharti Airtel 的網路容量,為印度的 5G 奠定基礎,並包括諾基亞的單一無線電存取網路、AirScale 無線電存取和基頻服務。此外,諾基亞全球服務將在該專案的安裝規劃和部署中發揮至關重要的作用。

  • Excluding India, the Asia Pacific region saw strong growth with telco operators. Year-on-year sales in Europe declined 4% in constant currency with Q1 last year being a tough compare.

    除印度外,亞太地區的電信業者成長強勁。以固定匯率計算,歐洲銷售額年減 4%,與去年第一季相比,情況不容樂觀。

  • Now to what we see ahead in the COVID-19 impact due to which we deemed it prudent to adjust the midpoints within our previously disclosed outlook ranges. Let me start by saying that this crisis has made vividly clear the importance of connectivity to keep society functioning. It is literally a matter of life and death. We feel, we have a sense of duty to our customers and the communities they serve to keep vital communication networks running and accommodate the explosion in the demand all over the world.

    現在談談我們對 COVID-19 影響的未來展望,因此我們認為在先前披露的展望範圍內調整中點是謹慎的做法。首先我要說的是,這場危機生動地顯示了互聯互通對於維持社會運作的重要性。這確實是生死攸關的問題。我們認為,我們對客戶及其所服務的社區有責任感,以保持重要的通訊網路的運作並適應世界各地激增的需求。

  • I would like to thank all our people as well as customers and suppliers who are working so hard to keep everyone connected across the world. Naturally, Nokia's first focus in this is our employees. We are working around the clock to keep them safe, and we're doing everything we can to support them through this crisis. We have put in place strict protocols for Nokia facilities and have provided clear advice to our employees about how they can mitigate the risks of COVID-19 in situations where they have to go about critical work. I'm very proud of the role Nokia is playing in supporting our customers and their communities. The products and services that we provide have never been more critical in enabling the world to continue to function in an orderly way. We are providing the capacity and continuity for vital medical, social and financial systems that are experiencing extraordinary stress. Our global manufacturing footprint is designed to optimize our global supply chain and mitigate against risks such as local disruptive events, transportation capacity problems and political risks. Our supply network consists of 25 factories around the globe and 6 hubs for customer fulfillment. As a result, we are not dependent on one location or entity. Telecom infrastructure is an essential service in most jurisdictions. Most networks see 30% to 45% traffic volume growth over a year. But through our operator customer base, we saw similar and sometimes even larger overall increases in lockdown impacted regions in just a matter of weeks, sometimes even days, immediately after the beginning of lockdown.

    我要感謝我們所有的員工以及客戶和供應商,他們努力工作,讓世界各地的每個人保持聯繫。當然,諾基亞在這方面首先關注的是我們的員工。我們正在全天候工作以確保他們的安全,並竭盡全力支持他們度過這場危機。我們為諾基亞設施制定了嚴格的協議,並向我們的員工提供了明確的建議,告訴他們如何在必須從事關鍵工作的情況下減輕 COVID-19 的風險。我對諾基亞在支持我們的客戶及其社區方面所發揮的作用感到非常自豪。我們提供的產品和服務對於讓世界繼續有序運作至關重要。我們正在為正在經歷巨大壓力的重要醫療、社會和金融系統提供容量和連續性。我們的全球製造足跡旨在優化我們的全球供應鏈,並減輕當地破壞性事件、運輸能力問題和政治風險等風險。我們的供應網絡由全球 25 家工廠和 6 個客戶履行中心組成。因此,我們不依賴一個地點或實體。在大多數司法管轄區,電信基礎設施是一項基本服務。大多數網路的流量一年內成長 30% 到 45%。但透過我們的營運商客戶群,我們在封鎖開始後的短短幾週內,有時甚至幾天內,就看到受封鎖影響的地區出現了類似的、有時甚至更大的整體成長。

  • The most impactful effect on the network was made by bandwidth intensive applications, such as streaming and subscription video-on-demand, for example, Netflix and Disney+ and video conferencing applications, such as Zoom, Microsoft Teams and WebEx, with some telecommunications and video conferencing applications growing by 700% or 800% in a matter of days, as analyzed by our Nokia Deepfield team. The trends were similar across China, Asia Pacific, Europe and the Americas. As of last week, we are seeing a plateauing of the growth in some regions, which is likely due to a combination of peak video consumption reaching practical maximum levels and the lowering of video streaming quality by service providers. We are working with our customers to provide real-time and granular information about their networks and enabling them to meet the increases in demand and expand capacity where needed. We're all aware that lockdowns have shuttered factories in many parts of the world, including Asia, and this caused pockets of supply chain issues in Q1 that limited our ability to completely meet the needs of a small number of customers.

    對網路影響最大的是頻寬密集型應用程序,例如串流媒體和訂閱視訊點播,例如 Netflix 和 Disney+,以及視訊會議應用程序,例如 Zoom、Microsoft Teams 和 WebEx,以及一些電信和視訊應用程式。諾基亞Deepfield 團隊的分析,會議應用程式在幾天內成長了700% 或800%。中國、亞太地區、歐洲和美洲的趨勢相似。截至上週,我們看到一些地區的成長趨於穩定,這可能是由於視訊消費高峰達到實際最高水準以及服務提供者降低視訊串流品質的綜合影響。我們正在與客戶合作,提供有關其網路的即時詳細信息,使他們能夠滿足需求的增長並在需要時擴展容量。我們都知道,封鎖已經關閉了包括亞洲在內的世界許多地區的工廠,這導致第一季出現了一些供應鏈問題,限制了我們完全滿足少數客戶需求的能力。

  • In Q1, the impact was approximately EUR 200 million in net sales, and this was partly the result of supply issues associated with disruptions in China and other parts of Asia. We expect those net sales to be pushed to future periods rather than being lost.

    第一季度,淨銷售額受到的影響約為 2 億歐元,部分原因是中國和亞洲其他地區的供應中斷造成的。我們預計這些淨銷售額將被推至未來時期而不是消失。

  • Let me explain in more detail some of what we are seeing. Getting customer acceptances for new product deployments is being delayed in some cases due to physical factors, such as on-site access being currently blocked due to the lockdowns, and we do see this continuing further into Q2. Additionally, we are seeing sharp foreign exchange rate fluctuations in places like Latin America, driven by COVID-19. This is causing operator customers to reduce CapEx, to conserve cash in order to offset rising production costs. I've mentioned that offsetting some of those negative impacts is the fact that our primary addressable market with telecom operators as well as our chosen enterprise verticals is expected to be more resilient than the broader economy, given high network capacity demands and longer-term demand for superior networking capabilities and cloud computing capabilities. Going forward, we believe the risks and uncertainties related to COVID-19 may continue to have an impact. And that is why we adjusted the non-IFRS midpoints within our full-year 2020 guidance ranges for EPS and operating margin to EUR 0.23 and 9%, respectively. We believe that the majority of this COVID-19 impact to be in Q2. While not immune, we also believe that our industry is fairly resilient to the crisis, and I have just provided some examples of why we hold this belief. Before handing over to Kristian, I want to change gears and briefly discuss another important matter. I wanted to say a few words about our corporate sustainability performance. I've mentioned that connectivity has never been as important as now when people find themselves physically isolated from others during the lockdown. In what has quickly become the new normal, Nokia's role as a critical connectivity enabler has never been so important. This is a responsibility that we take seriously. Remote working, remote schooling, remote services and smart deliveries are just some examples that have been enabled by connectivity and digitalization solutions. As we move into the future, sustainability will play a large part in shaping our industry. And we believe that technology will further improve people's lives, and we will, therefore, be focusing on those areas we expect to have the biggest impact on sustainable development and our profitability. Those areas are climate, integrity and culture. We continue to develop and maintain solid processes and principles on other sustainability areas, ensuring compliance with all necessary standards and requirements. With that, over to you, Kristian.

    讓我更詳細地解釋我們所看到的一些內容。在某些情況下,由於物理因素(例如目前由於封鎖而導致現場訪問被阻止),新產品部署的客戶接受度會被延遲,我們確實看到這種情況會持續到第二季​​。此外,受新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 影響,我們也看到拉丁美洲等地的外匯匯率出現劇烈波動。這導致營運商客戶減少資本支出,節省現金,以抵消不斷上升的生產成本。我已經提到,考慮到高網路容量需求和長期需求,我們與電信業者以及我們選擇的企業垂直市場的主要目標市場預計將比更廣泛的經濟更具彈性,從而抵消了其中一些負面影響以獲得卓越的網路功能和雲端運算功能。展望未來,我們認為與 COVID-19 相關的風險和不確定性可能會繼續產生影響。這就是為什麼我們將 2020 年全年每股收益和營業利潤率指引範圍內的非國際財務報告準則中點分別調整為 0.23 歐元和 9%。我們認為,COVID-19 的影響大部分發生在第二季。雖然我們不能倖免,但我們也相信我們的產業對危機有相當的彈性,我剛剛提供了一些例子來說明我們為何持有這個信念。在交給克里斯蒂安之前,我想換個話題,簡單討論另一件重要的事情。我想談談我們企業的永續發展績效。我已經提到過,當人們發現自己在封鎖期間與他人物理隔離時,連結性從未像現在這樣重要。在迅速成為新常態的情況下,諾基亞作為關鍵連結推動者的角色從未如此重要。這是我們認真對待的責任。遠距工作、遠距教育、遠端服務和智慧交付只是連接和數位化解決方案實現的一些範例。當我們邁向未來時,永續發展將在塑造我們的產業中發揮重要作用。我們相信科技將進一步改善人們的生活,因此,我們將重點放在那些我們期望對永續發展和獲利能力產生最大影響的領域。這些領域是氣候、誠信和文化。我們繼續在其他永續發展領域制定和維護可靠的流程和原則,確保遵守所有必要的標準和要求。好了,就交給你了,克里斯蒂安。

  • Kristian Pullola - CFO

    Kristian Pullola - CFO

  • Thank you, Rajeev. Today, I would like to start by walking you through our current liquidity position and our cash performance in Q1. I will then continue with a brief summary of our financial results for both Nokia Technologies and Group Common and Other, then take you through a Group level results for the first quarter. And finally, I will quickly provide an update on our cost savings program and close with some remarks on our guidance.

    謝謝你,拉吉夫。今天,我想先向您介紹我們目前的流動性狀況和第一季的現金表現。然後,我將繼續簡要總結諾基亞技術公司和 Group Common 及其他公司的財務業績,然後帶您了解第一季的集團層級業績。最後,我將快速提供有關我們的成本節約計劃的最新信息,並以有關我們的指導的一些評論作為結束。

  • Okay. Let's start with our liquidity position and cash performance. We closed Q1 with a solid total cash position of EUR 6.3 billion, a sequential increase of approximately EUR 310 million. The primary driver for the increase was related to a drawdown of a EUR 500 million loan from the European Investment Bank in February, which will mature in 2025. The facility was signed in August 2018 and had a drawdown period of 80 months. In addition to our solid cash position, we also have a EUR 1.5 billion revolving credit facility available to us that remains undrawn. Looking at our debt, we have approximately EUR 5 billion outstanding, all of which is financial covenant free, with an average maturity of 6 years and a smooth repayment schedule. We do not have long-term debt repayments due in 2020 and the next maturity, which totals EUR 500 million, is due in March 2021.

    好的。讓我們從我們的流動性狀況和現金表現開始。第一季結束時,我們的現金部位總額為 63 億歐元,比上一季增加了約 3.1 億歐元。成長的主要動力與 2 月從歐洲投資銀行提取的 5 億歐元貸款有關,該貸款將於 2025 年到期。除了我們堅實的現金狀況外,我們還擁有 15 億歐元的循環信貸額度,但尚未提取。看看我們的債務,我們有大約 50 億歐元的未償債務,所有這些債務都沒有財務契約,平均期限為 6 年,還款計劃順利。我們沒有 2020 年到期的長期債務償還,下一次到期的債務總額為 5 億歐元,將於 2021 年 3 月到期。

  • Additionally, we continue to explore prudent opportunities to further strengthen our liquidity position in a proactive manner. I'm confident that the conservative management of our balance sheet has positioned us well from a liquidity standpoint to run the business and to continue to fund the R&D investments needed to position us as a leader in 5G and beyond. While our total cash increased in the quarter, Nokia's net cash decreased by approximately EUR 410 million to a quarter-end balance of approximately EUR 1.3 billion. This approximately EUR 700 million difference between the change in total and net cash was primarily driven by the EUR 500 million EIB loan, which I just mentioned, and approximately EUR 140 million related to the fair valuation of certain issued bonds, as a result of unusual interest rate fluctuations.

    此外,我們繼續積極探索審慎的機會,進一步加強我們的流動性狀況。我相信,從流動性的角度來看,我們對資產負債表的保守管理使我們能夠很好地運營業務,並繼續為我們成為 5G 及其他領域的領導者所需的研發投資提供資金。儘管本季我們的現金總額有所增加,但諾基亞的淨現金減少了約 4.1 億歐元,季末餘額約為 13 億歐元。總現金變動與淨現金變動之間約7 億歐元的差異主要是由我剛才提到的5 億歐元歐洲投資銀行貸款造成的,另外約1.4 億歐元與某些已發行債券的公允估值相關,這是由於異常情況造成的。

  • Free cash flow was approximately breakeven in Q1. This largely reflected solid adjusted net profit and a onetime benefit as a result of settling certain interest rate derivatives, both of which were offset by Capex, restructuring, outflows, cash taxes and net working capital. In Q1, net working capital, excluding restructuring cash outflows, resulted in an approximately EUR 50 million decrease in net cash in the quarter. Within net working capital, we saw offsetting drivers. Receivables declined approximately EUR 420 million, primarily due to a seasonal decrease. Inventories declined approximately EUR 100 million, mainly due to temporary supply challenges, as a result of COVID as well as improved inventory management. These benefits were offset by an approximately EUR 570 million decrease in liabilities, primarily related to a seasonal decrease in accounts payable and lower material purchases due to COVID-19 and the inventory optimization.

    第一季自由現金流大致達到損益兩平。這在很大程度上反映了穩定的調整後淨利潤以及結算某些利率衍生品帶來的一次性收益,這兩者都被資本支出、重組、流出、現金稅和淨營運資本所抵消。第一季度,淨營運資本(不包括重組現金流出)導致該季度淨現金減少約 5,000 萬歐元。在淨營運資本中,我們看到了抵銷驅動因素。應收帳款減少約 4.2 億歐元,主要是因為季節性下降。庫存減少約 1 億歐元,主要是由於新冠疫情造成的臨時供應挑戰以及庫存管理的改善。這些效益被約 5.7 億歐元的負債減少所抵消,這主要與應付帳款的季節性減少以及因 COVID-19 和庫存優化而導致的材料採購減少有關。

  • Overall, I'm pleased with the progress we are making with our free cash flow program. And while our Q1 performance benefited from the settling of certain interest rate derivatives, I feel our internal focus on these topics is really starting to bear fruit. Having said that, it is not yet time to declare victory, and we will continue to put focus here and improve further. Looking forward to Q2, it is important to highlight that our cash will be negatively impacted by bonuses paid under our annual employee incentive plans. Now turning to our financial results, starting with Nokia Technologies. Q1 net sales declined 7% in constant currency, largely reflecting lower onetime sales in the quarter and lower brand licensing net sales. These were partly offset by higher net sales related to new licensing agreements. Excluding onetime sales, Nokia Technologies' topline would have increased slightly year-on-year. As of Q1, our annualized licensing run rate continued to be approximately EUR 1.4 billion.

    總的來說,我對我們的自由現金流計劃所取得的進展感到滿意。雖然我們第一季的業績受益於某些利率衍生性商品的結算,但我認為我們內部對這些主題的關注確實開始取得成果。話雖如此,現在還不是宣布勝利的時候,我們會繼續把重點放在這裡,進一步改進。展望第二季度,重要的是要強調,我們的現金將受到年度員工激勵計畫下支付的獎金的負面影響。現在轉向我們的財務業績,首先是諾基亞技術公司。以固定匯率計算,第一季淨銷售額下降 7%,主要反映了該季度一次性銷售額的下降以及品牌授權淨銷售額的下降。這些被新許可協議相關的淨銷售額增加所部分抵銷。如果不包括一次性銷售額,諾基亞技術公司的營收將比去年同期略有成長。截至第一季度,我們的年化許可運行率繼續保持在約 14 億歐元。

  • From a profitability perspective, Q1 operating margin in Nokia Technologies improved 200 basis points year-on-year to 83.6%. This was primarily due to improved gross margin, as a result of the absence of onetime costs, which negatively affected the year ago quarter. This quarter, I would like to expand my commentary on Nokia Technologies as there are several highlights worth spending some time on. First, regarding our overall patent portfolio and the excellent joint work being done by Nokia Technologies and Nokia Bell Labs. We have been ranked #1 in several independent third-party studies for our 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G patents that have been declared essential for cellular standards. Second, an independent patent analytics company, IPlytics, ranked Nokia #2 in January 2020 for ownership of 5G standard essential patents declared as essential for 5G and granted at least in one country. As of now, Nokia has declared more than 3,000 patent families as essential for 5G. And we achieved this less than 6 months after declaring our previous milestone of 2,000 patent declarations.

    從獲利能力角度來看,諾基亞技術第一季營業利潤率年增200個基點至83.6%。這主要是由於一次性成本的消失導致毛利率提高,而一次性成本對去年同期產生了負面影響。本季度,我想擴大對諾基亞技術的評論,因為有幾個亮點值得花一些時間。首先,關於我們的整體專利組合以及諾基亞技術公司和諾基亞貝爾實驗室正在進行的出色聯合工作。我們的 2G、3G、4G 和 5G 專利已被宣佈為蜂窩標準的必需專利,在多項獨立第三方研究中排名第一。其次,獨立專利分析公司 IPlytics 在 2020 年 1 月將諾基亞列為 5G 標準必要專利的擁有量第二名,該專利被宣佈為 5G 必要專利,並至少在一個國家/地區獲得授權。截至目前,諾基亞已宣布超過 3000 個專利族為 5G 所必需。我們在宣布先前的 2,000 項專利聲明里程碑後不到 6 個月就實現了這一目標。

  • Next, looking at Group Common and Other, where net sales declined 8% year-on-year on a constant currency basis. We estimate that COVID-19 had an approximately EUR 50 million negative impact on Q1 net sales, primarily related to ASN. On a year-on-year basis, the net sales decline was driven primarily by Radio Frequency Systems or RFS, due to lower net sales in North America. This was partly offset by growth in Alcatel Submarine Networks or ASN, driven by new projects. ASN's order intake continued to reflect a strong demand environment and ASN ended the quarter with a record order book. During Q1, COVID-19 had an impact on its business as 2 production facilities were closed towards the end of the quarter. While this had some impact on ASN's Q1 results, it is expected to have a more significant impact on Q2.

    接下來看看 Group Common 和 Other,以固定匯率計算,淨銷售額年減 8%。我們估計,COVID-19 對第一季淨銷售額產生了約 5,000 萬歐元的負面影響,主要與 ASN.1 相關。與去年同期相比,淨銷售額下降主要是由射頻系統或 RFS 推動的,原因是北美淨銷售額下降。這在一定程度上被新項目推動的阿爾卡特海底網絡(ASN)的成長所抵消。 ASN 的訂單量持續反映出強勁的需求環境,本季末 ASN 的訂單量創歷史新高。在第一季度,COVID-19 對其業務產生了影響,因為 2 個生產設施在本季末關閉。雖然這對 ASN 第一季的業績產生了一些影響,但預計會對第二季產生更顯著的影響。

  • Having said that, we believe that the underlying business momentum for ASN will continue, as capacity requirements for subsea transport continue to grow. The operating loss for Group Common and Other worsened year-on-year, primarily reflecting net negative fluctuations in venture fund investments and to a lesser extent, lower gross profit. The negative outcome from venture fund investments reflect the fact that some of the companies that we have invested in, operate in industries and markets hit by COVID-19. Further net negative fluctuations in Q2 and beyond cannot be ruled out, if the impacted companies are unable to secure additional funding to work through the COVID-19 crisis. Then looking at Nokia Group level results. Q1 non-IFRS net sales were down 4% on a constant currency basis. When excluding Greater China, which is how we measure our performance against our primary addressable market, net sales would have been approximately flat.

    話雖如此,我們相信,隨著海底運輸運力需求的持續成長,ASN 的基本業務動能將持續下去。集團普通及其他業務的經營虧損年增率惡化,主要反映創投基金投資的淨負波動,以及較小程度的毛利潤下降。創投基金投資的負面結果反映了這樣一個事實:我們投資的一些公司所在的行業和市場受到了 COVID-19 的打擊。如果受影響的公司無法獲得額外資金來度過 COVID-19 危機,則不能排除第二季度及以後出現進一步的淨負波動。然後再看看諾基亞集團層面的業績。以固定匯率計算,第一季非 IFRS 淨銷售額下降 4%。如果排除大中華區(這是我們根據主要目標市場衡量業績的方式),淨銷售額將大致持平。

  • As Rajeev mentioned, COVID-19 had an approximately EUR 200 million negative impact on Q1 sales, which we expect to be a shift to future periods. Within that EUR 200 million, Networks represented approximately EUR 150 million and Group Common accounted for the other approximately EUR 50 million, as I just noted. This was primarily due to supply chain constraints, and we, by no means, think these net sales are lost, given the resilience of our customer base. The timing of when we can realize the net sales will depend on a number of factors, including the easing of supply chain challenges, our ability to deliver and our ability to get customer acceptances. The Group level non-IFRS gross profit and gross margin improved significantly year-on-year to 36.4%. This improvement reflects 2 items that I wanted to touch upon. First, higher gross margin in Networks and more specifically, Mobile Access, as the transformation continued to take hold, as evidenced by the good progress against our KPIs. The second driver was Nokia Software, which delivered strong net sales growth and operating margin expansion, as a result of great sales execution, the comprehensiveness of our portfolio and delivery efficiency. This improvement in Group non-IFRS gross margin, in addition to continued progress on our cost reduction program, led to a 2.4% non-IFRS operating margin compared to a negative 1.2% in the year-ago quarter.

    正如 Rajeev 所提到的,COVID-19 對第一季銷售額產生了約 2 億歐元的負面影響,我們預計這種影響將轉移到未來時期。正如我剛才指出的,在這 2 億歐元中,Networks 約佔 1.5 億歐元,Group Common 約佔 5,000 萬歐元。這主要是由於供應鏈的限制,考慮到我們客戶群的彈性,我們絕不認為這些淨銷售額會消失。我們實現淨銷售額的時間將取決於許多因素,包括供應鏈挑戰的緩解、我們的交付能力以及我們獲得客戶認可的能力。集團層級非國際財務報告準則毛利與毛利率較去年同期大幅提升至36.4%。這項改進反映了我想談及的兩點。首先,隨著轉型的持續深入,網絡,更具體地說,行動接取的毛利率更高,我們的關鍵績效指標取得的良好進展就證明了這一點。第二個推動力是諾基亞軟體,由於出色的銷售執行力、產品組合的全面性和交付效率,該公司實現了強勁的淨銷售額成長和營業利潤率擴張。集團非國際財務報告準則毛利率的改善,加上我們成本削減計畫的持續進展,導致非國際財務報告準則營業利潤率為 2.4%,而去年同期為負 1.2%。

  • Looking at financial income and expenses. The year-on-year improvement was driven primarily by improved FX results and lower interest expenses. These were partly offset by losses incurred on certain financial assets caused by market volatility. Our Q1 non-IFRS tax rate was 27% and remains generally in line with our full-year expectation of approximately 26%. Our non-IFRS diluted EPS was EUR 0.01 for Q1 2020 compared to negative EUR 0.02 in the year ago quarter.

    看看財務收入和支出。年比改善主要是由於外匯業績改善和利息支出下降。這些損失被市場波動造成的某些金融資產損失部分抵銷。我們第一季的非國際財務報告準則稅率為 27%,與我們約 26% 的全年預期基本一致。 2020 年第一季度,我們的非 IFRS 攤薄後每股收益為 0.01 歐元,而去年同期為負 0.02 歐元。

  • Next, a brief update on our cost savings program. We believe we are on track to realize the EUR 500 million target, of which EUR 300 million of cost savings is expected in 2020. It is worth noting that since the announcement of the plan in October 2018, net foreign exchange fluctuations has resulted in an increase of estimated full-year 2020 fixed cost of approximately EUR 130 million. This has created an additional headwind to achieve our planned savings. However, we remain confident that we will hit our targets. Our expectations for restructuring charges and cash outflows have not changed in the quarter.

    接下來,簡單介紹我們的成本節約計劃。我們相信我們預計將實現 5 億歐元的目標,其中預計 2020 年可節省 3 億歐元的成本。增加約1.3 億歐元。這為我們實現計劃節省帶來了額外的阻力。然而,我們仍然有信心實現我們的目標。我們對本季重組費用和現金流出的預期沒有變化。

  • Then finally, I would like to provide a bit more detail on our outlook for the full-year 2020, where we have today adjusted the midpoints for non-IFRS operating margin and non-IFRS diluted EPS. First, we now expect our primary addressable market, excluding China, to decline in 2020, as a result of COVID-19 headwinds, and we expect to perform approximately in line with this market. While we continue to expect seasonality in 2020 to be similar to 2019, we now expect Q2 to bear the majority of the COVID-19 impact.

    最後,我想更詳細地介紹我們對 2020 年全年的展望,今天我們調整了非 IFRS 營業利潤率和非 IFRS 稀釋每股收益的中點。首先,我們現在預計,由於 COVID-19 的不利因素,我們的主要目標市場(不包括中國)將在 2020 年下降,並且我們預計表現大致與該市場一致。雖然我們仍然預計 2020 年的季節性與 2019 年相似,但我們現在預計第二季將承受 COVID-19 的大部分影響。

  • Beyond Q2, we expect -- we continue to expect that the majority of operating profit and free cash flow to be generated in the fourth quarter similar to 2019. As I said last quarter, we intend to provide updates each quarter to our progress against our outlook ranges, and that we would adjust the midpoints accordingly, if necessary. Given the risks and uncertainties presented by COVID, we have adjusted for 2020, both our non-IFRS operating margin and diluted EPS expectations, within the previously provided ranges. We now expect non-IFRS operating to -- operating margin to be 9% plus/minus 1 percentage points and non-IFRS diluted EPS to be EUR 0.23 plus/minus EUR 0.05.

    在第二季度之後,我們繼續預計第四季度將產生與 2019 年類似的大部分營業利潤和自由現金流。範圍,如有必要,我們將相應調整中點。考慮到新冠疫情帶來的風險和不確定性,我們對 2020 年的非國際財務報告準則營業利潤率和稀釋後每股收益預期進行了調整,調整至之前提供的範圍內。我們現在預計非 IFRS 營運利潤率為 9% 加/減 1 個百分點,非 IFRS 稀釋每股收益為 0.23 歐元加/減 0.05 歐元。

  • We also acknowledge that there are potential risks and uncertainties related to COVID that we have not factored into our outlook. More specifically, it is difficult to assess the scope and duration of the crisis as well as the pace and shape of an economic recovery -- of how an economic recovery could look like. These implications on customer demand are hard to predict with certainty. Additionally, we see opportunities and risks in North America, following the completion of a merger. While we recognize that there are increased macroeconomic uncertainty, we have confidence, not only in our resilient customer base, which includes communication service providers as well as large enterprise customers, but also in our strong liquidity position.

    我們也承認,存在與新冠病毒相關的潛在風險和不確定性,但我們並未將這些風險和不確定性納入我們的展望中。更具體地說,很難評估危機的範圍和持續時間以及經濟復甦的速度和形式——經濟復甦的樣子。這些對客戶需求的影響很難準確預測。此外,合併完成後,我們在北美看到了機會和風險。雖然我們認識到宏觀經濟的不確定性有所增加,但我們不僅對我們富有彈性的客戶群(包括通訊服務提供者和大型企業客戶)充滿信心,而且對我們強大的流動性狀況充滿信心。

  • With that, I hand over to Matt for Q&A.

    就這樣,我將問題交給馬特進行問答。

  • Matt Shimao - Head of IR

    Matt Shimao - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Kristian. One quick thing, which is the operating margin guidance. We now expect our non-IFRS operating margin to be 9%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

    謝謝你,克里斯蒂安。一件事很快,那就是營業利益率指引。我們現在預期非 IFRS 營業利益率為 9%,上下浮動 1.5 個百分點。

  • (Operator Instructions) Jamie, please go ahead.

    (操作員指示)傑米,請繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • And our first question today comes from David Mulholland from UBS.

    今天我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的大衛穆赫蘭。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Director and Equity Research Analyst - Technology Hardware

    David Terence Mulholland - Director and Equity Research Analyst - Technology Hardware

  • I just wanted to come back on the point you've made around the supply chain. Obviously, you had some constraints impacting Q1, and you flagged there's still some risk going on into Q2. But where are we with the supply chain? I think from what Ericsson was saying the other day, it seems like from their side, they've managed it quite well that they're still able to mostly supply customers. So how much of an issue should we still expect going forward from that in terms of supply chain issues?

    我只是想回到你對供應鏈的觀點。顯然,您受到了一些影響第一季的限制,並且您指出第二季度仍然存在一些風險。但我們的供應鏈處於什麼位置?我認為從愛立信前幾天所說的來看,從他們的角度來看,他們管理得很好,仍然能夠主要為客戶提供服務。那麼,就供應鏈問題而言,我們還應該期待多大程度的問題呢?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thanks, David. We saw those issues limited to a very few number of customers. Supply chain issues were from, like I said, China and sort of parts of Asia, especially when it comes to Tier 2, Tier 3 component vendors. Going into Q2, we see some supply risk. But we also see risk related to really the physical site access part in countries that are locked down. So that engineers can't go and access those sites to do the installation and commissioning. Even if we are an essential service as a sector, logistically, it is more challenged on the ground due to lockdown. So those are the 2 risks we see. Perhaps the installation one is greater than the supply.

    謝謝,大衛。我們發現這些問題僅限於極少數客戶。正如我所說,供應鏈問題來自中國和亞洲部分地區,特別是涉及二級、三級零件供應商時。進入第二季度,我們看到一些供應風險。但我們也看到了與被封鎖國家的實體站點訪問部分相關的風險。使工程師無法前往這些現場進行安裝和調試。即使我們作為一個部門的重要服務,在後勤方面,由於封鎖,它在實地面臨的挑戰更大。這就是我們看到的兩個風險。也許安裝量大於供應量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

  • Sandeep Sudhir Deshpande - Research Analyst

    Sandeep Sudhir Deshpande - Research Analyst

  • In terms of the disruptions you're seeing in the supply chain. Do you have a understanding of how much you're going to see in the second quarter? Because you say that in your release -- in your press release this morning that it is going to be worse. Or you say that the worst impact will be seen in the second quarter. So does that mean that you're going to see more than EUR 200 million of impact in the second quarter? And then if these supply chain disruptions, which are causing these issues in the first and the second quarter, will we see those made up in the second half, as the lockdowns end?

    就您在供應鏈中看到的中斷而言。您知道第二季會看到多少嗎?因為你在今天早上的新聞稿中說情況會更糟。或者你說第二季影響最嚴重。那麼這是否意味著您將在第二季看到超過 2 億歐元的影響?那麼,如果這些供應鏈中斷在第一季和第二季導致了這些問題,那麼隨著封鎖的結束,我們會看到這些問題在下半年得到彌補嗎?

  • Kristian Pullola - CFO

    Kristian Pullola - CFO

  • So maybe I'll start here. So we do see overall for the year, that there will be a net impact from COVID. We have reflected that both in our guidance for the overall market, where we shifted the guidance from being flat to now being down. And we also adjusted for that by bringing down our -- the midpoint for both our operating margin as well as for EPS slightly. We do think that the majority of this impact compared to what we expected earlier, will come through in the second quarter. And then some of that, but still with the net impact that I talked about, will be offset in the second half.

    所以也許我會從這裡開始。因此,我們確實認為今年整體而言,新冠疫情將會產生淨影響。我們在整個市場的指導中都反映了這一點,我們將指導從持平轉變為現在的下降。我們也透過略微降低營業利潤率和每股盈餘的中點來對此進行調整。我們確實認為,與我們先前的預期相比,大部分影響將在第二季顯現。然後其中一些,但仍然具有我談到的淨影響,將在下半年被抵消。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅伯特桑德斯。

  • Robert Duncan Cobban Sanders - Director

    Robert Duncan Cobban Sanders - Director

  • My question is just about Dynamic Spectrum Sharing, given you've now launched that offering. I was just wondering, can you try and contrast the approach you're making to DSS versus that of companies like Ericsson? And what is the feedback you're getting on -- from key customers on the relative strengths and weaknesses of your approach?

    我的問題只是關於動態頻譜共享,因為您現在已經推出了該產品。我只是想知道,您能否嘗試將您採用的 DSS 方法與愛立信等公司的方法進行對比?您從主要客戶那裡得到的關於您方法的相對優勢和劣勢的回饋是什麼?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Rob. So first of all, DSS is an important feature. We will be on time in line with commercial devices. So around July, will be volume deliveries. That's the 4G, 5G DSS that many customers need, such as in North America and elsewhere. We also have this all the way from 2G, 3G, 4G DSS, including 5G, but also 2G, 3G, 4G DDS. And that is required in many emerging markets, right? It's required in Latin America. It's required in Middle East and Africa. It'll be required in a lot of parts of Asia Pacific. To do the same thing you see in 4G 5G, so to get the spectral efficiency in 2G or 4G DSS. And here, we feel we are unique, and we are getting a lot of interest from customers. So the 4G, 5G in developed countries, advanced markets, but 2G to 4G will be released in a lot of other places in the run up to 5G.

    謝謝,羅布。所以首先,DSS是一個重要的功能。我們將準時與商業設備保持一致。所以七月份左右,將會是批量交付。這就是許多客戶需要的 4G、5G DSS,例如北美和其他地方的客戶。我們也有從2G、3G、4G DSS,包括5G,還有2G、3G、4G DDS。這是許多新興市場所需要的,對嗎?這是拉丁美洲所必需的。中東和非洲需要它。亞太地區的許多地區都需要它。執行您在 4G 5G 中看到的相同操作,從而獲得 2G 或 4G DSS 中的頻譜效率。在這裡,我們感覺自己是獨一無二的,並且引起了客戶的極大興趣。所以4G、5G在已開發國家、先進市場,但2G到4G會在很多其他地方發布,直到5G。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Achal Sultania from Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Achal Sultania。

  • Achal Sultania - Director

    Achal Sultania - Director

  • Rajeev, I think, you mentioned a strong data traffic growth starting because of COVID and operators feeling the need to upgrade networks. It seems like you've had some benefit of that on gross margins along with the product cost decline. Now you also mentioned that data traffic is kind of plateauing in a lot of markets. So how should we think about the business mix going into Q2 and Q3? Do we actually see the benefit of what we saw in Q1 continue into the next couple of quarters? Or is it mainly going to be your focus on product cost decline, which gives you the benefit on gross margins?

    Rajeev,我想,您提到了由於新冠疫情和運營商感覺需要升級網路而導致數據流量的強勁增長。隨著產品成本的下降,您似乎在毛利率上獲得了一些好處。現在您也提到,許多市場的數據流量都處於穩定狀態。那麼我們該如何看待第二季和第三季的業務組合呢?我們真的看到第一季所看到的好處會持續到接下來的幾季嗎?或者您主要關注的是產品成本下降,這會為您帶來毛利率方面的好處?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Achal. So it's evidenced by the data traffic growth and let's call it, preparedness for the future. Even if it's plateauing, people have learnt a lesson and they want to prepare for the future. So we're seeing that in our order intake in Fixed Access, Fixed Networks. I talked about a significant increase in order intake there. We're seeing a good order book in IP and Optical, both in Q1 and going into this quarter. And then, overall traffic is also going up in mobile, even if the centers are changing, rather than business centers, it's more to the home. Yes, mobility is reducing and handheld is reducing, but the traffic is going up. So there's also that potential opportunity in capacity demand in 4G. And then, of course, there are some markets where Fixed Access isn't strong enough. And then you've got to see that connected through wireless. On the longer term, though, I see clear opportunities and fixed moving, copper to fiber and more robust IP and transport. There's no point of all this traffic explosion, if your IP and Optical network is not up to scratch. So it's sort of -- this is where our end-to-end portfolio really helps from a long-term perspective.

    謝謝,阿查爾。數據流量的成長證明了這一點,我們稱之為「為未來做好準備」。即使情況趨於穩定,人們也已經吸取了教訓,他們希望為未來做好準備。因此,我們在固定接入、固定網路的訂單中看到了這一點。我談到那裡的訂單量顯著增加。無論是第一季還是進入本季度,我們都看到 IP 和光學領域的訂單量不錯。然後,行動端的整體流量也在上升,即使中心正在發生變化,而不是商務中心,更多的是到家庭。是的,移動性正在減少,手持設備正在減少,但流量正在增加。因此,4G 容量需求也存在潛在機會。當然,還有一些市場的固定接取還不夠強大。然後你必須看到透過無線連接。但從長遠來看,我看到了明顯的機會和固定移動、銅纜到光纖以及更強大的 IP 和傳輸。如果您的 IP 和光纖網路無法達到要求,那麼所有這些流量爆炸就沒有意義。所以從長遠來看,這就是我們的端到端產品組合真正提供幫助的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Tal Liani from Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

  • Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

    Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

  • I have 2 questions. The first one is, would you consider changing the company structure, meaning selling assets? Given the continued decline in routing or what we're seeing with optical, what's the value of keeping the company still as a combined company of multiple assets? And the second question, if you can relate to China. We are seeing Ericsson reporting better numbers in China. And I want to understand the sustainability of the trends in China for you? How do you think it's going to play out over time?

    我有 2 個問題。第一個是,您是否會考慮改變公司結構,即出售資產?考慮到路由的持續下滑或我們在光學方面看到的情況,保持公司作為擁有多種資產的合併公司的價值是什麼?第二個問題,你是否能與中國產生共鳴。我們看到愛立信在中國報告了更好的表現。我想為您了解中國趨勢的可持續性?您認為隨著時間的推移,情況會如何發展?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thank you. Actually, routing and optical, routing is just a compare issue compared to last year. But otherwise, the fundamentals are very, very strong in routing in particular, we've got some supply headwinds as well that affected us in Q1, but very, very, very strong leadership there in terms of technology, strong order book, as I said, same in optical, and both these benefit -- both these businesses will benefit from increased traffic. So there is a compare issue, but I don't see a change in fundamentals for this business. This is -- routing, in particular, as an anchor business and helps us a lot, in terms of robust future. And of course, it's the way to penetrate enterprise as well as web scale companies where we have been successful. So when it comes to the broader question, will we sell assets and so on? No, our end-to-end strategy is intact at this point in time. And there's no change to that. Our Chairman also confirmed that on the 2nd of March, when we were together in the press conference. Obviously, it's possible, the new CEO needs to come in and review strategy, and that's very normal. I think, then your second question was around China.

    謝謝。其實路由和光纖、路由只是和去年相比的比較問題。但除此之外,基本面非常非常強勁,特別是在路由方面,我們在第一季也遇到了一些影響我們的供應逆風,但在技術方面非常非常非常強大的領導力,強大的訂單簿,正如我所言說,在光學領域也是如此,這兩種業務都將受益於流量的增加。因此存在一個比較問題,但我認為該業務的基本面沒有變化。這就是——路由,特別是作為一個支柱業務,對我們的未來的強勁發展有很大幫助。當然,這是我們成功滲透到企業和網路規模公司的方式。那麼當談到更廣泛的問題時,我們會出售資產等等嗎?不,我們的端到端策略目前完好無損。這一點沒有改變。我們的主席在3月2日我們一起參加記者會時也證實了這一點。顯然,這是有可能的,新任執行長需要進來並審查策略,這很正常。我想,你的第二個問題是關於中國的。

  • And from this year's point of view, we have baked in the impact from what we're seeing in our guidance. And also, not just 2020, but also the long term. And with the recent decisions in China, it will have some top line impact, but much more limited impact on operating profit. And then I just want to quickly put the situation in China in perspective. We have consistently said that we take a prudent approach to share in China, given the profitability and cash challenges in the country. Ultimately, strategy is about hard choices. We are making choices. And second, we also said that we will prioritize our 5G radio activities on globally required features, as opposed to those that would have been required for specific local requirements, which we've avoided. Then you can also see that non-Chinese players have received considerably less share in recent rounds. And that's notable, and that has continued to happen with every generation of technology.

    從今年的角度來看,我們已經吸收了我們在指導中看到的影響。而且,不只是2020年,還有長期。鑑於中國最近的決定,它將產生一些頂線影響,但對營業利潤的影響則更為有限。然後我只想快速正確地看待中國的情況。我們一直表示,考慮到中國的獲利能力和現金挑戰,我們將採取謹慎的態度在中國投資。歸根究底,戰略就是艱難的選擇。我們正在做出選擇。其次,我們也表示,我們將優先考慮全球所需功能的 5G 無線電活動,而不是我們已經避免的特定本地要求所需的功能。然後你還可以看到非中國玩家在最近幾輪中獲得的份額要少得多。這是值得注意的,而且這種情況在每一代技術中都會繼續發生。

  • And finally, I would say that we continue to expect to remain a meaningful player in China. We've had some victories, recently. We understand yesterday, according to China Unicom, that we won the core deal as well as the virtualized IMS. And then in Greater China, overall, in Taiwan, we're doing very well. We're winning big in Taiwan in terms of 5G, just won a recent sole supplier deal with radio and core in -- with Taiwan Star in Chunghwa, earlier. And then with web scales, we're winning a lot with all 3 web scales in terms of Data Center Interconnect, again back with the Optical question. So our strategy will be around continuing to supply to operators. And it will focus on fixed, IP routing, optical, also move to large enterprise customers, such as railways and state grid in China and other large enterprise customers. And then continue the progress with web scale companies. So a business mix change and a customer mix change. And I think, a return to 5G radio is also possible at some point in the future.

    最後,我想說,我們仍然希望在中國繼續發揮重要作用。最近我們取得了一些勝利。根據中國聯通消息,我們昨天了解到,我們贏得了核心交易以及虛擬化IMS。然後在大中華區,整體來說,在台灣,我們做得很好。我們在 5G 方面在台灣贏得了巨大勝利,最近剛剛與中華民國的台灣之星簽訂了無線電和核心獨家供應商協議。然後,在網路規模方面,我們在資料中心互連方面透過所有 3 個網路規模贏得了許多勝利,再次回到光學問題。因此,我們的策略將是繼續向營運商供應。而且它將專注於固網、IP路由、光纖,同時也將向大型企業客戶轉移,例如中國的鐵路和國家電網等大型企業客戶。然後繼續與網路規模公司取得進展。因此,業務組合發生變化,客戶組合也發生變化。我認為,在未來的某個時候回歸 5G 無線電也是可能的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Aleksander Peterc from Societe Generale.

    我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

  • Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst

    Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst

  • Can we come back a little bit on 5G powered by ReefShark? I'd just like to know, in your increase from 10% to 17% of 5G PBR products. If you could give us an insight on which part of the family of ReefShark chipsets have been contributing to this increase over the quarter? And which element for part of the ReefShark family you're working on that will come through in the remainder of the year to increase this share?

    我們可以回顧一下由 ReefShark 提供支援的 5G 嗎?我只是想知道你們的5G PBR產品從10%增加到17%。您能否向我們介紹 ReefShark 晶片組系列的哪些部分對本季的成長做出了貢獻?您正在為 ReefShark 系列開發哪些元素,將在今年剩餘時間內完成以增加這一份額?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Aleks. So with 10% at the end of Q4, we have started shipping the -- some of the radio SoCs, especially in Massive MIMO. And now we've expanded that to the range of 5G. The baseband SoC will come later in the year, putting us in a significantly stronger position in 2021. And it doesn't have to be linear necessarily. It can be nonlinear from 1Q to the other, but we are confident we can get to that 35% -- greater than 35% by the end of the year. So yes, good progress there.

    謝謝,亞歷克斯。因此,在第四季末達到 10% 的情況下,我們已經開始出貨一些無線電 SoC,尤其是大規模 MIMO 領域的產品。現在我們已將其擴展到 5G 範圍。基頻 SoC 將於今年稍後推出,這將使我們在 2021 年處於更有利的地位。從第一季到第二季可能是非線性的,但我們有信心達到 35%——到今年年底超過 35%。所以是的,那裡取得了良好的進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Dominik Olszewski from Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dominik Olszewski。

  • Dominik P. Olszewski - Research Analyst

    Dominik P. Olszewski - Research Analyst

  • Yes. Just one on my end, which is on the Software business. Could you dig a little bit deeper on detail in terms of what's been performing so well to drive the margins so high in this quarter at the least?

    是的。我這邊只有一個,是關於軟體業務的。您能否更深入地了解細節,看看是什麼表現得如此出色,至少在本季推動瞭如此高的利潤率?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Well, particularly good execution in the quarter, operational efficiency. But I think, if you step back and see what's happening in software because we are consistently putting in a good performance in this area of diversification. It is when we decided to rewrite our software on a cloud-native portfolio to rewrite on a common software foundation and make it cloud native, that just allowed us the ability to become more agile in that R&D piece, get better time to market, but also expand gross margins. And so that's the lever. The other one they've been driving, is services. Just -- we have a solid portfolio. We're ahead of the curve compared to others, cloud-native Common Software Foundation and just good execution in the quarter.

    那麼這個季度執行力特別好,營運效率。但我認為,如果你退後一步,看看軟體領域正在發生什麼,因為我們在這個多元化領域一直表現良好。當我們決定在雲端原生產品組合上重寫我們的軟體,在通用軟體基礎上重寫並使其成為雲端原生時,這才使我們能夠在研發方面變得更加敏捷,獲得更好的上市時間,但也擴大了毛利率。這就是槓桿。他們一直在推動的另一項是服務。只是-我們擁有可靠的產品組合。與其他公司相比,我們處於領先地位,雲端原生通用軟體基礎以及本季的良好執行力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next Question is from Richard Kramer from Arete Research.

    下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Richard Kramer。

  • Richard Alan Kramer - Senior Analyst

    Richard Alan Kramer - Senior Analyst

  • I'd like to ask you both about the topic of capital allocation. Rajeev, it feels like you crossed the Rubicon in China, where you chose not to allocate capital there to radio. And that kind of begs the question for yourself and Kristian, whether shareholders should be concerned with the EUR 640 million level 3 liabilities for the put option around NSB? And on the flip side, given that Nokia now has 2 sort of overlapping growth businesses between Enterprise and Software, what ways can you -- can we look forward to that you could allocate more capital to those areas since they're seeing rising margins and rising sales in the current climate?

    我想問一下你們關於資本配置的話題。拉吉夫,感覺就像你在中國越過了盧比孔河,你選擇不向廣播電台分配資金。這給你和克里斯蒂安帶來了一個問題,股東是否應該擔心 NSB 周圍看跌期權的 6.4 億歐元 3 級負債?另一方面,鑑於諾基亞現在在企業和軟體之間擁有兩種重疊的成長業務,您可以採取什麼方式——我們可以期待您可以向這些領域分配更多資本,因為他們看到利潤率不斷上升,且在當前環境下銷量會上升嗎?

  • Kristian Pullola - CFO

    Kristian Pullola - CFO

  • Yes, Richard, I think, as Rajeev described, we continue to see China as a key market, our business mix in China will change. We'll continue to work on the market, together with the existing partner that we have in the country.

    是的,理查德,我認為,正如拉吉夫所描述的那樣,我們仍然將中國視為一個關鍵市場,我們在中國的業務結構將會改變。我們將繼續與我們在該國現有的合作夥伴一起開拓市場。

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • And then on -- Richard, your question on Nokia Software and Enterprise, thanks for that. So it's not overlapping. These are 2 different diversification areas. But we are doing that. We are absolutely doing that. That's why you see the performance. In Q4 last year, enterprise grew 33%. Overall, strong double-digit growth last year, 18% for full year, 19% in Q1, Nokia Software now 13%. It might vary between quarters for Nokia Software, given the nature of that business. But hey, we are putting all of the attention there. We're absolutely focused on diversification. The money is available to them, and we will allocate capital to them. I'm a big believer in Software and Enterprise.

    然後 - 理查德,你關於諾基亞軟體和企業的問題,謝謝你。所以它不重疊。這是兩個不同的多元化領域。但我們正在這樣做。我們絕對正在這樣做。這就是為什麼你會看到表演。去年第四季度,企業成長了33%。總體而言,去年實現了兩位數的強勁成長,全年成長 18%,第一季成長 19%,諾基亞軟體目前成長 13%。鑑於諾基亞軟體業務的性質,每季的情況可能會有所不同。但是,嘿,我們把所有的注意力都集中在那裡。我們絕對專注於多元化。他們有錢,我們就會分配資金給他們。我非常相信軟體和企業。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Stefan Slowinski from Exane BNP Paribas.

    我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Stefan Slowinski。

  • Stefan Julien Henri Slowinski - Research Analyst

    Stefan Julien Henri Slowinski - Research Analyst

  • Yes, just for Kristian. After the Q4, you gave a pretty specific OpEx outlook talking about the OpEx in 2020 being EUR 50 million greater than 2019. I didn't see if you had reiterated that today or with the currency moves you mentioned, if you can give us an update on what that number is? And then, I guess, on the top line, you've talked about the addressable market being lower this year. Can you help quantify that, so we can think about how much lower we should be modeling on the top line?

    是的,只是為了克里斯蒂安。在第四季之後,您給出了非常具體的營運支出展望,談到2020 年的營運支出將比2019 年增加5000 萬歐元。 ,您能否給我們一個更新這個數字是多少?然後,我想,在最重要的方面,您談到了今年的潛在市場較低。您能否幫忙量化一下,以便我們可以考慮應該將營收模型降低多少?

  • Kristian Pullola - CFO

    Kristian Pullola - CFO

  • Yes, I think, on the OpEx question, nothing has really changed. We feel confident that we will be able to hit the EUR 500 million overall reductions, which will bring EUR 300 million of savings this year. Some of those savings will be offset then by hopefully, higher incentive accrual this year and thus, the same OpEx year-on-year logic holds as after Q4. When it comes to market and top line change, the way to think about that is that while we haven't quantified how much we believe that the market will decline this year, you should really kind of look at the changes that we made to the midpoint of our operating margin and EPS to be a good proxy of how much the top line would be down because there, that's actually the main driver why we are adjusting our outlook for margin and EPS.

    是的,我認為,在營運支出問題上,一切都沒有真正改變。我們有信心實現 5 億歐元的整體削減目標,這將為今年節省 3 億歐元。其中一些節省將有望被今年更高的應計激勵所抵消,因此,與第四季度之後的營運支出同比邏輯相同。當談到市場和營收變化時,思考這一點的方法是,雖然我們還沒有量化我們認為今年市場將下降多少,但你真的應該看看我們對我們的營業利潤率和每股收益的中點可以很好地代表營收將下降多少,因為這實際上是我們調整利潤率和每股盈餘前景的主要驅動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Sami Sarkamies from Nordea Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Nordea Markets 的 Sami Sarkamies。

  • Sami Sarkamies - Senior Analyst of TMT

    Sami Sarkamies - Senior Analyst of TMT

  • I have a question on your IPR licensing business, where royalties were flattish in Q1. Even though the smart home market was severely impacted by COVID-19. Last night, Qualcomm guided for about 30% lower license revenues in the June quarter, but you are not flagging any headwinds. Can you please explain why your business model seems more stable, given the situation?

    我有一個關於你們的智慧財產權授權業務的問題,第一季的特許權使用費持平。儘管智慧家庭市場受到了 COVID-19 的嚴重影響。昨晚,高通預計 6 月季度的授權收入將下降約 30%,但您並沒有指出任何不利因素。鑑於目前的情況,您能否解釋為什麼您的商業模式看起來更穩定?

  • Kristian Pullola - CFO

    Kristian Pullola - CFO

  • Yes. I think, the big reason for that is that a big portion of our agreements are actually fixed price and fixed cost, over time. And as a result of that, we haven't seen a lot of growth when the market was growing. Now we don't see any decline when the market is declining.

    是的。我認為,造成這種情況的一個重要原因是,隨著時間的推移,我們協議的很大一部分實際上是固定價格和固定成本。因此,當市場成長時,我們並沒有看到很大的成長。現在市場下跌的時候我們看不到任何下跌。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的西蒙·利奧波德。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to see if maybe you could drill down on the Fixed Access business. It was weaker than I would have imagined in this quarter. And I think we've all expected it would be a declining business in 2020 all along, but it does look a little bit worse. And I just want to see if we can think about some of the cross currents like usage for 5G backhaul as well as maybe some of the deficiencies that have been evident in consumer broadband in Europe. How you think about those opportunities and how we should think about the full year for Fixed Access?

    我想看看你們是否可以深入研究固定接入業務。本季的情況比我想像的要弱。我想我們一直都預計到 2020 年它的業務將會下滑,但它看起來確實有點糟糕。我只是想看看我們是否可以考慮一些交叉流,例如 5G 回程的使用,以及歐洲消費者寬頻中明顯的一些缺陷。您如何看待這些機會以及我們應該如何看待全年的固定接取?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Yes. Thanks, Simon. The business has benefited recently from strong order intake growth. But overall, this industry is going through a transition from copper to fiber, and that's just taking time because some of the operators don't yet see the full business case for fiber. So I think, the growth drivers here are going to be that transition potentially accelerating, especially with what everybody's learned through the pandemic, evidenced a little bit in our order intake at this point. But then fixed wireless access for those operators that do not have fixed, that is a good revenue opportunity. And there, we are seeing some momentum. So for us, the growth drivers are going to come down to fixed wireless access and the acceleration of fiber.

    是的。謝謝,西蒙。該業務最近受益於訂單量的強勁成長。但總體而言,該行業正在經歷從銅纜到光纖的過渡,這只是需要時間,因為一些營運商尚未看到光纖的完整業務案例。因此,我認為,這裡的成長動力將是這種轉變可能會加速,特別是每個人都從大流行中學到了一些東西,這在我們目前的訂單量中得到了一點證明。但對於那些沒有固定無線存取的營運商來說,這是一個很好的創收機會。在那裡,我們看到了一些動力。因此,對我們來說,成長動力將歸結為固定無線存取和光纖加速。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The last question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

    最後一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • Rajeev, I'd like to get an update from you on how Nokia stands in the open RAN and vRAN debate. I see you guys have been active with Rakuten in Japan. I saw an announcement with Bharti, where you will be one of the main 5G suppliers and along with Altiostar, supplying like an open vRAN solution as well. And at the same time, in the debate in the U.S. with the administration, you seem to be pushing back on the legislation that is trying to impose open RAN to operators. So it looks like you're fairly positively-minded on the topic. But at the same time, you -- you're not comfortable with open vRAN going too fast, maybe?

    Rajeev,我想了解諾基亞在開放 RAN 和 vRAN 爭論中的最新情況。我看到你們在日本的樂天很活躍。我看到了 Bharti 的公告,您將成為主要 5G 供應商之一,並與 Altiostar 一起提供開放式 vRAN 解決方案。同時,在美國與政府的辯論中,你們似乎在抵制試圖向運營商強加開放 RAN 的立法。看來您對這個話題持相當正面的態度。但同時,您可能對開放 vRAN 發展得太快感到不舒服?

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Pierre. We have always been of the view that the industry eventually will be open, and we need to play, rather than hide. And so we played the Rakuten one much to our success. We were able to launch with them on time, but also we were able to upsell a broad part of our end-to-end portfolio. And I'm a believer that vRAN/ORAN will happen. I think it will start with vRAN, gives us an edge over some of the smaller players because ultimately, vRAN/ORAN also need that silicon capability. And feature parity with the old, not just with the new. So we will have vRAN compliance and availability on time, when the largest operators need it and their business case is justified. And on the ORAN, I think, it is going to take still a number of years before it becomes meaningful for anybody. But I'm positive on that, but it will take time.

    謝謝,皮埃爾。我們一直認為,這個行業最終會開放,我們需要玩,而不是躲起來。因此,我們玩樂天遊戲取得了巨大的成功。我們能夠按時與他們一起推出產品,而且我們也能夠追加銷售我們端到端產品組合的大部分。我相信 vRAN/ORAN 將會出現。我認為這將從 vRAN 開始,這使我們比一些較小的參與者更具優勢,因為最終 vRAN/ORAN 也需要這種晶片能力。並且功能與舊的相同,而不僅僅是與新的相同。因此,當最大的運營商需要並且他們的業務案例合理時,我們將及時實現 vRAN 合規性和可用性。我認為 ORAN 還需要數年時間才能對任何人產生意義。但我對此持肯定態度,但這需要時間。

  • Matt Shimao - Head of IR

    Matt Shimao - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Pierre, and thank you all for your questions today. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Rajeev.

    謝謝皮埃爾,也謝謝大家今天提出的問題。我現在想把電話轉回拉吉夫。

  • Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

    Rajeev Suri - President & CEO

  • Thank you all for your questions, and I'll close with a couple of comments. First, despite the COVID-19 impacts I discussed, I remain confident that inside Nokia, we are taking the right steps to deliver progressive improvement in the 4 key areas of Mobile Access. While I'm pleased with our solid improvement in Q1, I want all of you to know, we appreciate that you are rightly measuring Mobile Access' progress over a multi-quarter perspective. This is how it should be, and that is what our employees are working to. Second, the technology strength we have will enable Nokia to better serve our customers in the current environment, whether it is our FP4 based routing or PSE-3 optical networking products, our Common Software Foundation and cloud computing capabilities or the private wireless networks we are building in our Enterprise business.

    感謝大家提出的問題,我將以一些評論作為結尾。首先,儘管我討論了 COVID-19 的影響,但我仍然相信,在諾基亞內部,我們正在採取正確的步驟來逐步改進行動訪問的 4 個關鍵領域。雖然我對我們在第一季的穩步進步感到滿意,但我希望你們所有人都知道,我們感謝你們從多個季度的角度正確衡量 Mobile Access 的進展。這就是應該的樣子,這就是我們的員工正在努力的方向。其次,我們擁有的技術實力將使諾基亞能夠在當前環境下更好地服務我們的客戶,無論是我們基於FP4的路由還是PSE-3光網路產品,我們的通用軟體基礎和雲端運算能力還是我們的私有無線網路。

  • The strength of our position in these businesses continues to serve Nokia well. Thank you all, and please stay safe and well. With that, I will hand the call back over Matt.

    我們在這些業務中的優勢地位繼續為諾基亞提供良好的服務。謝謝大家,請保持安全和健康。這樣,我會將電話轉交給馬特。

  • Matt Shimao - Head of IR

    Matt Shimao - Head of IR

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference call. I would like to remind you that during the conference call today, we have made a number of forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may, therefore, differ materially from the results currently expected. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external, such as general economic and industry conditions as well as internal operating factors. We have identified these in more detail in the section titled Operating and Financial Review and Prospects, risk factors, of our 2019 annual report on Form 20-F; our financial report for Q1 published today on Form 6 K, where we have added a COVID-19 risk Factor; as well as our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Thank you.

    女士們先生們,我們的電話會議到此結束。我想提醒大家的是,在今天的電話會議中,我們做了一些涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。因此,實際結果可能與目前預期的結果有重大差異。可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素,例如總體經濟和行業狀況,也可以是內部營運因素。我們在 2019 年年度報告 20-F 表格中標題為「營運和財務回顧及前景、風險因素」的部分中更詳細地確定了這些內容;我們今天在 6 K 表中發布了第一季的財務報告,其中我們添加了 COVID-19 風險因素;以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。