美光科技 (MU) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Sherri, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Micron's Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    下午好。我的名字是雪莉,今天我將成為你的會議主持人。在這個時候,我想歡迎大家參加美光 2020 年第四季度財務發布電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

    現在我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人投資者關係副總裁 Farhan Ahmad。你可以開始你的會議了。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO; and Dave Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝大家,歡迎參加美光科技 2020 財年第四季度財務電話會議。今天與我通話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra;和首席財務官 Dave Zinsner。

  • Today's call will be approximately 60 minutes in length. This call, including the audio and slides, is also being webcast from our Investor Relations website at investors.micron.com. In addition, our website contains the earnings press release and the prepared remarks filed a short while ago.

    今天的通話時間約為 60 分鐘。此次電話會議(包括音頻和幻燈片)也將通過我們的投資者關係網站investors.micron.com 進行網絡直播。此外,我們的網站還包含收益新聞稿和不久前提交的準備好的評論。

  • Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures may be found on our website. As a reminder, a webcast replay will be available on our website later today. We encourage you to monitor our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending. You can follow us on Twitter, @MicronTech.

    除非另有說明,否則今天對財務結果的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上進行。可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。提醒一下,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供網絡直播重播。我們鼓勵您在整個季度監控我們的網站 micron.com,以獲取有關公司的最新信息,包括我們將參加的各種財務會議的信息。您可以在 Twitter 上關注我們,@MicronTech。

  • As a reminder, the matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today. We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q, for a discussion of risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectation reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statement after today's date to conform these statements to actual results.

    提醒一下,我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述存在重大差異。我們向您推薦我們向 SEC 提交的文件,特別是我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格,以討論可能影響我們未來結果的風險。儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的,但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。我們沒有義務在今天之後更新任何前瞻性陳述,以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. Micron delivered solid fiscal fourth quarter revenue and profitability driven by strength in DRAM shipments to cloud, PC and game console customers.

    謝謝你,法爾漢。大家下午好。在 DRAM 向雲、PC 和遊戲機客戶的出貨量強勁的推動下,美光在第四財季實現了穩健的收入和盈利能力。

  • As I reflect on the fiscal year 2020 accomplishments, I'm extremely proud of our Micron team whose dedication and tenacity enabled the new Micron to deliver customer value and healthy financial results throughout fiscal 2020.

    當我回顧 2020 財年的成就時,我為我們的美光團隊感到非常自豪,他們的奉獻精神和堅韌不拔的精神使新的美光能夠在整個 2020 財年實現客戶價值和健康的財務業績。

  • In DRAM, we introduced the industry's first 1z nanometer node. We were first to market with mobile LP5 products and shattered industry performance records with our graphics GDDR6X innovation.

    在 DRAM 方面,我們推出了業界首個 1z 納米節點。我們率先將移動 LP5 產品推向市場,並憑藉我們的圖形 GDDR6X 創新打破了行業性能記錄。

  • In NAND, we began shipping our first replacement gate-based products and drove significant increases in our QLC mix. In addition, in fiscal Q4, we already achieved our high-value solutions mix target. We are entering fiscal 2021 with momentum in our product portfolio and confidence in our technology road map and manufacturing capabilities.

    在 NAND 中,我們開始出貨我們的第一個基於門的替代產品,並推動我們的 QLC 組合顯著增加。此外,在第四財季,我們已經實現了高價值解決方案組合目標。進入 2021 財年,我們的產品組合勢頭強勁,對我們的技術路線圖和製造能力充滿信心。

  • This year, COVID-19 presented a real-life stress test of the New Micron's resilience. Thanks in large part to the commitment and innovation of our team members around the globe, we continued to operate our fabs at normal capacity and achieved record production from our assembly and test facilities in Xian, Taiwan and Singapore. Stringent industry-leading safety protocols have enabled us to gradually return to work on site. As of today, almost 3/4 of Micron team members are back on site, with our manufacturing operations running close to fully staffed levels.

    今年,COVID-19 對 New Micron 的彈性進行了真實的壓力測試。在很大程度上歸功於我們全球團隊成員的承諾和創新,我們繼續以正常產能運營我們的晶圓廠,並在西安、台灣和新加坡的組裝和測試設施實現了創紀錄的產量。嚴格的行業領先的安全協議使我們能夠逐步恢復到現場工作。截至今天,近 3/4 的美光團隊成員已返回現場,我們的製造業務接近滿員水平。

  • The New Micron is also making solid progress toward our goals to bring differentiated industry-leading products to our customers and to improve our product mix and cost structure so that we can grow our share of industry profits, all while maintaining stable bit share.

    新美光也在朝著我們的目標邁進,為我們的客戶帶來差異化的行業領先產品,並改善我們的產品組合和成本結構,以便我們能夠在保持穩定的比特份額的同時增加我們的行業利潤份額。

  • In DRAM, we are leading the industry in 1z nanometer production mix, and this node was a significant contributor to our fiscal fourth quarter sales. We are making good progress on our next-generation 1-alpha node, which remains on track for the introduction in fiscal 2021.

    在 DRAM 方面,我們在 1z 納米生產組合方面處於行業領先地位,該節點對我們第四財季的銷售額做出了重要貢獻。我們在下一代 1-alpha 節點上取得了良好進展,該節點仍有望在 2021 財年推出。

  • We are further strengthening our DRAM product portfolio. This quarter, we announced GDDR6X, the world's fastest discrete graphics memory solution and the first to power system bandwidth up to 1 terabyte per second. GDDR6X is a great example of close customer collaboration on differentiated technology that significantly improves the end user experience. Our innovative GDDR6X memory is featured in the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 and 3080 graphics cards that deliver an immersive real-life gaming experience.

    我們正在進一步加強我們的 DRAM 產品組合。本季度,我們發布了 GDDR6X,它是世界上最快的獨立顯卡內存解決方案,也是第一個將系統帶寬提高到每秒 1 TB 的解決方案。 GDDR6X 是在差異化技術上與客戶密切合作的一個很好的例子,顯著改善了最終用戶體驗。 NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 和 3080 顯卡採用了我們創新的 GDDR6X 內存,可提供身臨其境的真實遊戲體驗。

  • Our strength in graphics DRAM also positions us well for the data center market, where growth in GPU computing is being driven by AI workloads. We're also excited about our progress with high-bandwidth memory to serve the fast-growing AI market and remain on track to commence volume shipments by the end of this year.

    我們在圖形 DRAM 方面的優勢也使我們在數據中心市場上處於有利地位,其中 GPU 計算的增長受到 AI 工作負載的推動。我們也對我們在高帶寬內存方面的進展感到興奮,以服務於快速增長的人工智能市場,並有望在今年年底前開始批量出貨。

  • In NAND, we are on track for a replacement gate to make up a meaningful portion of our NAND output by the end of calendar 2020. Our 128-layer first-generation RG NAND technology entered volume production in fiscal Q3 2020. And in fiscal Q4, we began shipping RG-based consumer SSDs.

    在 NAND 方面,我們有望在 2020 年年底之前更換門,以占我們 NAND 產量的重要部分。我們的 128 層第一代 RG NAND 技術在 2020 財年第三季度進入量產階段。在第四財季,我們開始發售基於 RG 的消費級 SSD。

  • We are also making good progress on our second-generation RG node, which we expect to introduce into volume production during fiscal 2021. This industry-leading technology will be broadly deployed across our product portfolio and drive NAND cost reduction later in fiscal 2021 and into fiscal 2022.

    我們的第二代 RG 節點也取得了良好的進展,我們預計將在 2021 財年投入量產。這項行業領先的技術將廣泛部署在我們的產品組合中,並推動 NAND 成本在 2021 財年晚些時候降低並進入2022財年。

  • We're also driving product innovations and cost reductions through an increased mix of QLC NAND. Our QLC innovations offer PC customers a more cost-effective, high-capacity SSD solution and data center customers a highly effective HDD replacement option with a compelling value proposition. We are leading the industry with the broadest portfolio of QLC SSDs across client, consumer and data center and are seeing QLC adoption accelerate. Our mix of QLC SSD bits more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, surpassing our expectations.

    我們還通過增加 QLC NAND 的組合來推動產品創新和降低成本。我們的 QLC 創新為 PC 客戶提供了更具成本效益的大容量 SSD 解決方案,並為數據中心客戶提供了具有令人信服的價值主張的高效 HDD 更換選項。我們在客戶端、消費者和數據中心擁有最廣泛的 QLC SSD 產品組合,引領行業,並且看到 QLC 的採用正在加速。我們的 QLC SSD 位組合環比增加了一倍以上,超出了我們的預期。

  • Fiscal 2020 has been an extraordinary year for our high-value solutions, which now make up around 80% of our quarterly NAND bits, achieving the goal we had set for ourselves ahead of schedule. We are now intensifying our focus on profitability enhancement through further improvements to our product mix within our high-value solutions portfolio. Over the next several quarters, we will be introducing a slate of new SSD and mobile NAND products that leverage increased vertical integration using our internally developed controllers and our industry-leading second-generation replacement gate TLC and QLC technology.

    對於我們的高價值解決方案而言,2020 財年是不平凡的一年,這些解決方案現在占我們季度 NAND 位的 80% 左右,提前實現了我們為自己設定的目標。我們現在正在通過進一步改進我們高價值解決方案組合中的產品組合來加強對提高盈利能力的關注。在接下來的幾個季度中,我們將推出一系列新的 SSD 和移動 NAND 產品,這些產品利用我們內部開發的控制器和我們行業領先的第二代替代門 TLC 和 QLC 技術來提高垂直集成度。

  • Turning to end markets. Fiscal 2020 was a strong year for our SSD business. We expanded our NVMe portfolio and continued our SATA market leadership. Fiscal Q4 SSD revenue almost doubled year-over-year, led by data center SSD sales. Client SSD average capacities grew almost 30% quarter-over-quarter driven by QLC growth. Consumer SSD had another record quarter in volume shipped, with NVMe bits more than doubling quarter-over-quarter.

    轉向終端市場。 2020 財年是我們 SSD 業務強勁的一年。我們擴展了 NVMe 產品組合併繼續保持 SATA 市場領先地位。在數據中心 SSD 銷售的帶動下,第四財季 SSD 收入同比幾乎翻了一番。在 QLC 增長的推動下,客戶端 SSD 平均容量環比增長近 30%。消費級 SSD 的出貨量又創下季度新高,NVMe 位比上一季度增長了一倍多。

  • Turning to data center memory and networking. The data center market continues to be a growth engine for Micron. And this year, COVID-19 accelerated this growth, specifically in cloud. Leveraging our industry-leading 1z DRAM, Micron executed well to drive robust sequential growth in cloud DRAM bit shipments, which more than doubled year-over-year in fiscal Q4. Meanwhile, traditional on-premise enterprise demand was weaker in fiscal Q4 with lower IT investment from businesses due to the impact of the pandemic. Looking ahead, the data center market is expected to start its transition to DDR5 in the second half of fiscal 2021, and we have begun sampling DDR5 server modules to customers.

    轉向數據中心內存和網絡。數據中心市場繼續成為美光的增長引擎。而今年,COVID-19 加速了這一增長,尤其是在雲領域。利用我們行業領先的 1z DRAM,美光錶現出色,推動了雲 DRAM 位出貨量的強勁連續增長,在第四財季同比增長了一倍以上。同時,由於大流行的影響,第四財季傳統的本地企業需求疲軟,企業的 IT 投資減少。展望未來,預計數據中心市場將在 2021 財年下半年開始向 DDR5 過渡,我們已經開始向客戶提供 DDR5 服務器模塊樣品。

  • In networking, 5G deployments, particularly in Asia, drove healthy DRAM bit growth quarter-over-quarter. In mobile, Micron is well positioned to win in the 5G era as a supplier to all the major smartphone manufacturers with an outstanding portfolio of industry-leading low-power DRAM and managed NAND solutions. We have been diversifying and broadening our mobile business for some time and achieved a record number of design wins in fiscal Q4. We are also excited about our product momentum in mobile MCP solutions, which combine DRAM and NAND solutions into one efficient package.

    在網絡方面,5G 部署,特別是在亞洲,推動了健康的 DRAM 比特環比增長。在移動領域,作為所有主要智能手機製造商的供應商,美光憑藉行業領先的低功耗 DRAM 和託管 NAND 解決方案的出色產品組合,完全有能力在 5G 時代獲勝。一段時間以來,我們一直在多元化和擴大我們的移動業務,並在第四財季取得了創紀錄的設計勝利。我們也對我們在移動 MCP 解決方案中的產品勢頭感到興奮,該解決方案將 DRAM 和 NAND 解決方案結合到一個高效的封裝中。

  • The smartphone market has been impacted by the pandemic in a meaningful way in calendar 2020. But as we look ahead to calendar 2021, we expect a rebound in smartphone unit volumes, coupled with robust average capacity growth across both DRAM and NAND solutions. 5G handset volumes could grow to approximately 500 million units in 2021 from around 200 million units in calendar 2020, and these 5G products feature higher memory and storage content to enable enhanced consumer experiences.

    智能手機市場在 2020 年受到了大流行的重大影響。但展望 2021 年,我們預計智能手機銷量將反彈,同時 DRAM 和 NAND 解決方案的平均容量增長強勁。 5G 手機的銷量可能會從 2020 年的約 2 億部增長到 2021 年的約 5 億部,這些 5G 產品具有更高的內存和存儲內容,以增強消費者體驗。

  • In the PC market, the work-from-home trend drove strong demand for notebooks with pockets of nonmemory component shortages in the supply chain. Desktop PC sales are weak due to pandemic-driven changes to customer buying patterns.

    在個人電腦市場,在家工作的趨勢推動了對筆記本電腦的強勁需求,供應鏈中存在大量非內存組件短缺。由於大流行導致客戶購買模式發生變化,台式電腦銷售疲軟。

  • In graphics, GDDR6 shipments to support next-generation gaming consoles, in addition to the initial shipments of our breakthrough GDDR6X product, helped drive strong quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year bit growth. We expect this market to drive growth for us in fiscal 2021.

    在圖形方面,支持下一代遊戲機的 GDDR6 出貨量,以及我們突破性 GDDR6X 產品的初始出貨量,幫助推動了強勁的季度環比和同比位增長。我們預計這個市場將在 2021 財年為我們推動增長。

  • DRAM and NAND content growth continues to be a secular trend in the automotive market supported by advanced infotainment systems and increased automation in cars. COVID-19 has significantly impacted both auto production and demand in fiscal 2020, but we saw a strong recovery towards the end of fiscal Q4 and expect sequential growth in sales of our products into the automotive market in F Q1.

    在先進的信息娛樂系統和汽車自動化程度提高的支持下,DRAM 和 NAND 內容增長仍然是汽車市場的長期趨勢。 COVID-19 對 2020 財年的汽車生產和需求產生了重大影響,但我們在第四財季末看到強勁復甦,並預計第一季度我們的產品在汽車市場的銷售將連續增長。

  • Economic recovery from the sharp recession in calendar Q2 is underway, but the pace has been limited by the continuation of the pandemic. Smartphone, auto and consumer end markets have started to recover, and we see further demand improvements ahead. Cloud and laptop demand continues to be healthy, supported by the work-from-home and shop-from-home trends. Gaming demand is robust. However, our short-term outlook has weakened due to a combination of factors. First, the ongoing pandemic is taking a toll on certain segments of the economy. Consequently, enterprise demand has weakened due to lower IT spending and somewhat higher inventories at certain customers.

    經濟正在從日曆第二季度的急劇衰退中復蘇,但由於大流行的持續,步伐受到限制。智能手機、汽車和消費終端市場已經開始復蘇,我們看到未來需求將進一步改善。在在家工作和在家購物趨勢的支持下,雲和筆記本電腦的需求繼續保持健康。遊戲需求強勁。然而,由於多種因素的綜合作用,我們的短期前景已經減弱。首先,持續的大流行正在對經濟的某些領域造成影響。因此,由於 IT 支出減少和某些客戶的庫存有所增加,企業需求減弱。

  • In addition, due to the previously announced U.S. administration restrictions on Huawei, we halted shipments to Huawei on September 14. Huawei has been a large customer at approximately 10% of fiscal Q4 sales. Given that we only had 1-month notice before halting shipments, we had limited ability to shift supply to other customers. As a result, we expect a negative impact to fiscal Q1 sales and to a lesser extent, fiscal Q2 sales. Our well-established relationships with mobile customers worldwide will allow us to offset the impact of these restrictions by the end of fiscal Q2.

    此外,由於之前宣布的美國政府對華為的限制,我們於 9 月 14 日停止向華為發貨。華為一直是大客戶,約佔第四財季銷售額的 10%。鑑於我們在停止發貨前只有 1 個月的通知,因此我們將供應轉移給其他客戶的能力有限。因此,我們預計會對第一財季的銷售產生負面影響,在較小程度上對第二財季的銷售產生負面影響。我們與全球移動客戶建立的良好關係將使我們能夠在第二財季末抵消這些限制的影響。

  • Now turning to our industry outlook. We now estimate that calendar 2020 industry DRAM bit demand growth is likely to be in the mid-teens percent range, while NAND bit demand growth is likely to be in the mid-20s. Due to the shift of industry production capacity to a more efficient 16-gigabit die, we are seeing industry supply constraints for 8-gigabit-based DRAM products. We are optimistic that overall market demand will improve throughout calendar 2021 following the seasonal patterns of the first calendar quarter.

    現在轉向我們的行業前景。我們現在估計,2020 年日曆行業 DRAM 位需求增長可能在 10% 左右,而 NAND 位需求增長可能在 20 年代中期。由於行業產能向更高效的 16 Gb 芯片轉移,我們看到基於 8 Gb 的 DRAM 產品的行業供應受到限制。我們樂觀地認為,在第一季度的季節性模式之後,整個 2021 日曆年的整體市場需求將有所改善。

  • We are very excited by the combination of growth drivers coming into alignment for the industry for calendar 2021. These growth drivers include: economic recovery from the pandemic; new CPU architectures, which are enabling higher server content; cloud, AI and machine learning growth; robust mobile demand driven by 5G; and strength in gaming and automotive.

    我們對 2021 日曆年行業的增長驅動力組合感到非常興奮。這些增長驅動力包括:大流行中的經濟復甦;新的 CPU 架構,支持更高的服務器內容;雲、人工智能和機器學習的增長; 5G驅動的強勁移動需求;以及在遊戲和汽車領域的實力。

  • We expect calendar 2021 industry DRAM bit demand growth of approximately 20%. We further expect that disciplined industry CapEx will result in improving DRAM market conditions and industry profitability throughout calendar 2021.

    我們預計 2021 年日曆行業 DRAM 位需求增長約 20%。我們進一步預計,嚴格的行業資本支出將在 2021 年整個日曆期間改善 DRAM 市場狀況和行業盈利能力。

  • Calendar 2021 industry NAND bit demand growth is expected to be approximately 30%. Unless industry CapEx moderates from current levels or demand exceeds our expectations, we see a risk of challenging NAND industry profitability levels.

    2021 年日曆行業 NAND 位需求增長預計約為 30%。除非行業資本支出從當前水平放緩或需求超出我們的預期,否則我們認為 NAND 行業盈利水平面臨挑戰的風險。

  • Turning to Micron supply. We target our bit supply growth CAGR to be in line with industry bit demand growth CAGR for both DRAM and NAND. However, there can be year-to-year variability caused by node transition timing. For example, we expect our DRAM bit supply growth to be above industry demand in calendar 2020, but to moderate to less than industry demand in calendar 2021.

    轉向美光供應。我們的目標是我們的比特供應增長 CAGR 與 DRAM 和 NAND 的行業比特需求增長 CAGR 保持一致。但是,節點轉換時間可能會導致逐年變化。例如,我們預計 2020 年我們的 DRAM 位供應增長將高於行業需求,但在 2021 年將放緩至低於行業需求。

  • In NAND, we expect our bit supply growth in calendar 2020 to be well below the industry demand due to our ongoing RG transition. In calendar 2021, we expect our NAND bit supply growth to be somewhat below the industry demand, and we plan to use inventory to support a bit shipment growth that is in line with the industry demand.

    在 NAND 中,由於我們正在進行的 RG 過渡,我們預計 2020 年的比特供應增長將遠低於行業需求。在 2021 年,我們預計我們的 NAND 位供應增長將略低於行業需求,我們計劃使用庫存來支持符合行業需求的位出貨量增長。

  • For fiscal 2021, we expect DRAM cost reduction in the mid-single-digit percent range with somewhat higher levels of cost reduction on a like-for-like basis. Our higher mix of LP5 graphics and our early ramp of high-bandwidth memory will impact overall DRAM costs. We anticipate NAND cost reduction in the low to mid-teens percent range even after accounting for the cost impact of our mix shift as we continue our focus on optimizing our high-value solutions portfolio.

    對於 2021 財年,我們預計 DRAM 成本將降低在個位數百分比範圍內,並且在同類基礎上的成本降低水平會更高。我們更高的 LP5 圖形組合和我們早期的高帶寬內存將影響整體 DRAM 成本。隨著我們繼續專注於優化我們的高價值解決方案組合,我們預計 NAND 成本將降低到 10% 到 10% 左右,即使在考慮了我們的組合轉變的成本影響之後。

  • We are targeting fiscal 2021 CapEx to be approximately $9 billion to support our long-term goal of maintaining stable share of industry bit supply, which will be achieved through node transitions alone and without a net increase to wafer starts. This CapEx target is significantly lower than our pre-COVID expectations, and this reflects our continued commitment to exercise supply discipline while staying focused on deploying our leading-edge technology nodes, which deliver strong ROI. Within this CapEx envelope, fab building CapEx will remain elevated relative to historical levels. We are also continuing investments in back-end assembly and test capacity that do not impact bit growth but have strong ROI. Should demand expectations change, we remain flexible to adjust our bit supply growth to align with bit demand growth using CapEx and utilization as levers.

    我們的目標是 2021 財年的資本支出約為 90 億美元,以支持我們保持穩定的行業比特供應份額的長期目標,這將僅通過節點轉換來實現,而不會淨增加晶圓開工率。這一資本支出目標大大低於我們在 COVID 之前的預期,這反映了我們繼續致力於執行供應紀律,同時繼續專注於部署我們的領先技術節點,從而提供強大的投資回報率。在這個資本支出範圍內,晶圓廠建設資本支出將相對於歷史水平保持較高水平。我們還在繼續投資後端組裝和測試能力,這些能力不會影響比特增長但具有強大的投資回報率。如果需求預期發生變化,我們將靈活調整我們的鑽頭供應增長,以利用資本支出和利用率作為槓桿來與鑽頭需求增長保持一致。

  • Despite COVID-19's broad impact on our lives and the business environment, we believe it has accelerated demand growth in some parts of the markets we serve. This is certainly true in cloud deployments, where some trends that would have taken 2 to 4 years to develop have been accelerated into months and will likely persist into the future. As we look ahead, we remain extremely excited about the growth and health of our diverse end markets, which will benefit from powerful secular technology trends, including AI, 5G and IoT. These trends will enable the data economy and increase the importance of DRAM and NAND, supporting a long-term DRAM bit demand growth CAGR of mid- to high teens and a NAND bit demand growth CAGR of approximately 30%.

    儘管 COVID-19 對我們的生活和商業環境產生了廣泛影響,但我們相信它加速了我們所服務市場的某些部分的需求增長。這在雲部署中當然是正確的,其中一些需要 2 到 4 年才能發展的趨勢已經加速到數月,並且可能會持續到未來。展望未來,我們仍然對多元化終端市場的增長和健康感到非常興奮,這將受益於強大的長期技術趨勢,包括人工智能、5G 和物聯網。這些趨勢將推動數據經濟並增加 DRAM 和 NAND 的重要性,支持 DRAM 位元需求的長期復合年增長率為中高水平,以及 NAND 位元的複合年增長率約為 30%。

  • I'll now turn it over to Dave to provide our financial results and guidance.

    我現在將把它交給戴夫來提供我們的財務結果和指導。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Sanjay. We generated solid results in the fiscal fourth quarter, with revenue and earnings per share coming in above the midpoint of our guided range despite significant demand variability as customers continue to react to the impacts of COVID-19.

    謝謝,桑傑。儘管隨著客戶繼續對 COVID-19 的影響做出反應,但需求變化很大,但我們在第四財季取得了可觀的業績,收入和每股收益高於我們指導範圍的中點。

  • Total F Q4 revenue was approximately $6.1 billion, up 11% sequentially and 24% year-over-year. As a reminder, our F Q4 results reflect a 14-week quarter, and the extra week contributed to revenues, costs and expenses for the quarter. Sequential revenue growth was led by strong DRAM shipments. Revenue was back-end loaded based on timing of customer demand. For the fiscal year 2020, total revenue was $21.4 billion, down 8% from the prior fiscal year.

    F Q4 總收入約為 61 億美元,環比增長 11%,同比增長 24%。提醒一下,我們的第四季度業績反映了一個為期 14 週的季度,額外的一周為本季度的收入、成本和支出做出了貢獻。強勁的 DRAM 出貨量帶動了收入的連續增長。收入是根據客戶需求的時間進行後端加載的。 2020財年總收入為214億美元,比上一財年下降8%。

  • F Q4 DRAM revenue was $4.4 billion, representing 72% of total revenue. DRAM revenue increased 22% sequentially and 29% year-over-year. Bit shipments were up in the mid-20% range sequentially, and ASPs were down in the low single-digit percent range quarter-over-quarter. For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue was $14.5 billion, representing 68% of total revenue. DRAM revenue declined 14% from the prior fiscal year.

    F Q4 DRAM 收入為 44 億美元,佔總收入的 72%。 DRAM 收入環比增長 22%,同比增長 29%。位出貨量環比增長在 20% 的中間範圍內,而 ASP 環比下降在低個位數百分比範圍內。本財年,DRAM 收入為 145 億美元,佔總收入的 68%。 DRAM 收入比上一財年下降 14%。

  • F Q4 NAND revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, representing 25% of total revenue. NAND revenue declined 8% sequentially and was up 27% year-over-year. Bit shipments were approximately flat sequentially, and ASPs declined in the upper single-digit percent range quarter-over-quarter. For the fiscal year, NAND revenue was $6.1 billion, representing 29% of total revenue. NAND revenue increased 14% from the prior fiscal year.

    F Q4 NAND 收入約為 15 億美元,佔總收入的 25%。 NAND 收入環比下降 8%,同比增長 27%。位出貨量環比基本持平,平均售價環比下降在上個位數百分比範圍內。本財年,NAND 收入為 61 億美元,佔總收入的 29%。 NAND 收入比上一財年增長 14%。

  • Now turning to our revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the Compute and Networking Business Unit was approximately $3 billion, up approximately 36% sequentially and up 59% year-over-year. CNBU revenue was driven by continued strength in the cloud and client segments following the work-from-home infrastructure build-out as well as growth in demand from gaming consoles. For the fiscal year, CNBU revenue was $9.2 billion, down 8% from the prior fiscal year.

    現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入趨勢。計算和網絡業務部門的收入約為 30 億美元,環比增長約 36%,同比增長 59%。 CNBU 收入的推動因素是,隨著在家辦公基礎設施的建設以及遊戲機需求的增長,雲和客戶端領域的持續增長。本財年,CNBU 收入為 92 億美元,比上一財年下降 8%。

  • Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit was $1.5 billion, down 4% sequentially and up 4% year-over-year. For the fiscal year, MBU revenue was $5.7 billion, down 11% from fiscal 2019.

    移動業務部門的收入為 15 億美元,環比下降 4%,同比增長 4%。本財年,MBU 收入為 57 億美元,比 2019 財年下降 11%。

  • Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $913 million, down 10% from F Q3 and up 8% year-over-year. For the fiscal year, SBU revenue was $3.8 billion, down 2% from fiscal 2019.

    存儲業務部門的收入為 9.13 億美元,比第三季度下降 10%,同比增長 8%。本財年,SBU 收入為 38 億美元,比 2019 財年下降 2%。

  • Finally, revenue for the Embedded Business Unit was $654 million, down 3% sequentially and down 7% year-over-year. Demand continued to be below historical levels due to the impact from COVID-19. Exiting the quarter, we began to see a sharp recovery in auto and consumer market demand, while industrial markets remained lackluster. For the fiscal year, EBU revenue was $2.8 billion, down 12% from fiscal 2019.

    最後,嵌入式業務部門的收入為 6.54 億美元,環比下降 3%,同比下降 7%。由於 COVID-19 的影響,需求繼續低於歷史水平。本季度結束後,我們開始看到汽車和消費市場需求大幅回升,而工業市場依然低迷。本財年,EBU 收入為 28 億美元,比 2019 財年下降 12%。

  • The consolidated gross margin for F Q4 was 34.9%, up approximately 170 basis points from the prior quarter. Sequential gross margin improvement was driven by solid DRAM cost execution, which benefited from our 1z ramp. The impact of underutilization at our Lehigh fab was $135 million or approximately 220 basis points in F Q4. We expect underutilization to gradually decline through fiscal 2021 as we redeploy equipment and continue to rightsize our capacity.

    F Q4 的綜合毛利率為 34.9%,比上一季度增長約 170 個基點。連續的毛利率提高是由穩固的 DRAM 成本執行推動的,這得益於我們的 1z 斜坡。在第四季度,我們的 Lehigh 工廠利用率不足的影響為 1.35 億美元或約 220 個基點。隨著我們重新部署設備並繼續調整產能,我們預計到 2021 財年,利用率不足將逐漸下降。

  • Operating expenses were $809 million in F Q4. While we've taken action over the past several quarters to control our operating expenses, we expect operating expenses to increase over the course of fiscal 2021 as we make several investments in R&D to fund technology spending and to further grow and improve our product portfolio. F Q4 operating income was $1.3 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 21.5% compared to 18% in the prior quarter and 14% in the prior year.

    第四季度的運營費用為 8.09 億美元。雖然我們在過去幾個季度採取了行動來控制我們的運營費用,但我們預計運營費用將在 2021 財年增加,因為我們在研發方面進行了多項投資以資助技術支出並進一步發展和改進我們的產品組合。 F Q4 營業收入為 13 億美元,營業利潤率為 21.5%,上一季度為 18%,去年同期為 14%。

  • Net interest expense increased to $31 million compared to $24 million of net interest expense in the prior quarter. The increase was due to the lower yields on our cash investments, which reduced interest income. We expect net interest expense to increase modestly to approximately $35 million in F Q1.

    與上一季度的 2400 萬美元的淨利息支出相比,淨利息支出增加到 3100 萬美元。增加的原因是我們的現金投資收益率較低,從而減少了利息收入。我們預計第一季度的淨利息支出將適度增加至約 3500 萬美元。

  • Our F Q4 effective tax rate was 3.6%, which benefited from approximately $16 million of onetime items. Going forward into fiscal 2021, we expect our tax rate to be in the high single-digit range.

    我們的 F Q4 有效稅率為 3.6%,這得益於大約 1600 萬美元的一次性物品。展望 2021 財年,我們預計我們的稅率將處於高個位數範圍內。

  • Non-GAAP earnings per share in F Q4 were $1.08, up from $0.82 in F Q3 and $0.56 in the year-ago quarter. For the fiscal year, EPS was $2.83, down from $6.35 in fiscal 2019.

    第四季度非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.08 美元,高於第三季度的 0.82 美元和去年同期的 0.56 美元。本財年每股收益為 2.83 美元,低於 2019 財年的 6.35 美元。

  • Turning to cash flows and capital spending. We generated $2.3 billion in cash from operations in fiscal Q4, representing 38% of revenue. For the fiscal year, we generated $8.3 billion in cash from operations, down from $13.2 billion in the prior fiscal year. Net capital spending was approximately $2.2 billion during the quarter and approximately $7.9 billion for the fiscal 2020.

    轉向現金流和資本支出。我們在第四財季的運營中產生了 23 億美元的現金,佔收入的 38%。在本財年,我們從運營中產生了 83 億美元的現金,低於上一財年的 132 億美元。本季度的淨資本支出約為 22 億美元,2020 財年約為 79 億美元。

  • Our future CapEx plans have come down versus our pre-COVID expectations. We now expect fiscal 2021 CapEx of approximately $9 billion. This CapEx investment will support our 1-alpha DRAM and second-generation replacement gate NAND ramps. NAND and back-end equipment CapEx will increase year-on-year, while DRAM equipment CapEx will be roughly flat year-on-year. These investments will skew our CapEx spending towards the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year. As a result, we expect capital spending to outpace our operating cash flow in F Q1 and F Q2. We expect to return to healthy free cash flow levels in the second half of the fiscal year as we benefit from improved market conditions, declining costs and lower capital spending.

    我們未來的資本支出計劃與我們在 COVID 之前的預期相比有所下降。我們現在預計 2021 財年的資本支出約為 90 億美元。這項資本支出投資將支持我們的 1-alpha DRAM 和第二代替代門 NAND 斜坡。 NAND 和後端設備 CapEx 將同比增長,而 DRAM 設備 CapEx 將與去年基本持平。這些投資將使我們的資本支出支出偏向本財年的前兩個季度。因此,我們預計第一季度和第二季度的資本支出將超過我們的運營現金流。我們預計在本財年下半年將恢復健康的自由現金流水平,因為我們受益於市場狀況改善、成本下降和資本支出減少。

  • Free cash flow in the quarter was $111 million compared to $101 million in the prior quarter. This represents the 15th consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow. For the fiscal year, we generated $361 million of free cash flow.

    本季度的自由現金流為 1.11 億美元,而上一季度為 1.01 億美元。這是連續第 15 個季度實現正自由現金流。在本財年,我們產生了 3.61 億美元的自由現金流。

  • We repurchased approximately 824,000 shares for $41 million in F Q4 at an average price of $49.91. In the fiscal year 2020, we've returned $176 million of capital through repurchases, representing approximately 50% of our free cash flow. Combining the convert premiums and share repurchases, we have used approximately $380 million or 105% of fiscal 2020 free cash flow toward reducing our fully diluted share count.

    我們在第四季度以 4100 萬美元的價格回購了大約 824,000 股股票,平均價格為 49.91 美元。在 2020 財年,我們通過回購返還了 1.76 億美元的資本,約占我們自由現金流的 50%。結合轉換溢價和股票回購,我們已使用約 3.8 億美元或 2020 財年自由現金流的 105% 來減少我們完全稀釋的股票數量。

  • Ending F Q4 inventory was $5.6 billion or 135 days versus 131 days last quarter. This is above our 110-day target due in part to elevated NAND inventory as we continue to transition to replacement gate. We're also holding higher levels of raw material inventory during this period of supply uncertainty. We expect inventory levels to normalize over the course of the fiscal year. We ended the quarter with total cash of $9.3 billion and total liquidity of approximately $11.8 billion, flat quarter-over-quarter. F Q4 ending total debt was $6.6 billion.

    第四季度末庫存為 56 億美元或 135 天,而上一季度為 131 天。這高於我們 110 天的目標,部分原因是隨著我們繼續過渡到替換門,NAND 庫存增加。在這段供應不確定的時期,我們還持有較高水平的原材料庫存。我們預計庫存水平將在本財年正常化。我們在本季度末的總現金為 93 億美元,總流動資金約為 118 億美元,環比持平。 F Q4 期末總債務為 66 億美元。

  • Now turning to our outlook. As a reminder, our fiscal first quarter will be a usual 13-week quarter, down from the 14 weeks in fiscal fourth quarter. We have started to see recovery in the mobile, auto and consumer markets, but the pace of recovery has been moderated by the continued impact of the pandemic and shortages of certain nonmemory components in some end markets. Enterprise demand is weak, and some of our customers may be carrying higher inventory. We continue to be disciplined on pricing, walking away from certain deals that are below our profitability targets.

    現在轉向我們的前景。提醒一下,我們的第一財季將是一個通常為期 13 週的季度,低於第四財季的 14 週。我們已經開始看到移動、汽車和消費市場的複蘇,但由於大流行的持續影響以及某些終端市場某些非內存組件的短缺,復甦的步伐已經放緩。企業需求疲軟,部分客戶庫存可能較高。我們繼續嚴格定價,放棄某些低於我們盈利目標的交易。

  • Compared to our fiscal Q4 results normalized to adjust for the extra week, we expect DRAM shipments to be relatively flat and NAND shipments to grow somewhat in the first half of fiscal 2021 due to market conditions and the impact of the Huawei restrictions. We face headwinds in our gross margins in the first half of fiscal 2021 due to a mix shift towards NAND revenue, our pricing assumptions in the near term driven by market conditions and temporarily higher cost related to our ramp of the first-generation replacement gate node and yield learning on new DRAM products such as graphics. We expect improved financial performance in the second half of the fiscal 2021 as we benefit from improved market conditions and declining costs.

    與我們為延長一周而正常化的第四財季業績相比,由於市場狀況和華為限制的影響,我們預計 DRAM 出貨量將相對持平,而 NAND 出貨量將在 2021 財年上半年有所增長。我們在 2021 財年上半年的毛利率面臨逆風,原因是混合轉向 NAND 收入、我們在短期內受市場條件驅動的定價假設以及與我們第一代替代柵極節點的坡道相關的暫時較高的成本並對新的 DRAM 產品(例如圖形)進行學習。我們預計 2021 財年下半年的財務業績將有所改善,因為我們受益於市場狀況的改善和成本的下降。

  • With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for F Q1 is as follows: We expect revenue to be $5.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin to be in the range of 27.5%, plus or minus 100 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $825 million, plus or minus $25 million.

    考慮到所有這些因素,我們對 F Q1 的非公認會計準則指導如下:我們預計收入為 52 億美元,上下浮動 2 億美元;毛利率在 27.5% 上下浮動 100 個基點;運營費用約為 8.25 億美元,上下浮動 2500 萬美元。

  • Finally, based on a share count of approximately 1.15 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $0.47, plus or minus $0.07.

    最後,基於大約 11.5 億股完全稀釋後的股票,我們預計每股收益為 0.47 美元,上下浮動 0.07 美元。

  • In closing, Micron continues to execute well despite continued market uncertainty and geopolitical challenges. Against the backdrop of a severe global recession caused by COVID-19, Micron has delivered solid performance in fiscal 2020, with revenues 70% higher and operating margins 12 percentage points higher than fiscal 2016. As we assess our cross-cycle performance over the last 4 years, we have delivered average gross margins of 40%, EBITDA margins of 50% and return on invested capital of 20%. Our cross-cycle performance has benefited by the $9 billion in structural profitability improvements achieved from fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2019, and we intend to continue to improve our cost competitiveness in the coming years. Our strong technology, dramatically improved product portfolio and financial strength position us well to capitalize on the long-running demand trends driving the memory and storage industry.

    最後,儘管市場持續存在不確定性和地緣政治挑戰,美光繼續表現良好。在 COVID-19 導致全球嚴重衰退的背景下,美光在 2020 財年取得了穩健的業績,收入比 2016 財年高出 70%,營業利潤率高出 12 個百分點。當我們評估過去一年的跨週期業績時4 年,我們實現了 40% 的平均毛利率、50% 的 EBITDA 利潤率和 20% 的投資資本回報率。從 2016 財年到 2019 財年,我們的跨週期業績受益於 90 億美元的結構性盈利能力改善,我們打算在未來幾年繼續提高我們的成本競爭力。我們強大的技術、顯著改進的產品組合和財務實力使我們能夠很好地利用驅動內存和存儲行業的長期需求趨勢。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay for closing remarks.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay 做結束語。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Dave. The positive momentum in our financial performance in calendar year 2020 has been interrupted by the unprecedented combination of a global pandemic and U.S. restrictions on shipments to Huawei. As we look towards the second half of fiscal 2021, we expect that the underlying momentum in our product portfolio and secular industry drivers such as AI and 5G will drive materially better financial and business performance.

    謝謝你,戴夫。我們在 2020 日曆年財務業績的積極勢頭被全球大流行病和美國對華為發貨的前所未有的限制所打斷。展望 2021 財年下半年,我們預計我們產品組合的潛在動力以及人工智能和 5G 等世俗行業驅動因素將推動財務和業務表現大幅改善。

  • We are confident in the long-term growth trajectory of our industry. Memory and storage have become increasingly important across diverse end market applications, spanning from the data center to the edge and from business to consumer. Within this context, Micron is getting stronger, not only financially, as Dave indicated, but also competitively. Micron is transforming into a product leadership company that is trusted partner to our customers, both for differentiated solutions and for continuity of supply. We are confident that our upcoming node transitions, our strengthening product portfolio and deeper customer engagements will further enhance our competitive position.

    我們對行業的長期增長軌跡充滿信心。內存和存儲在從數據中心到邊緣以及從企業到消費者的各種終端市場應用中變得越來越重要。在這種情況下,美光正在變得越來越強大,正如戴夫所說,不僅在財務上,而且在競爭力上。美光正在轉變為一家產品領先的公司,在差異化解決方案和供應連續性方面都是客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴。我們相信,我們即將進行的節點轉換、我們不斷加強的產品組合和更深入的客戶參與將進一步增強我們的競爭地位。

  • Micron's transformation is taking place against a global backdrop of unprecedented environmental challenges. It is imperative that we are also environmentally responsible in our operations, and Micron is playing a leadership role in this area. Last month, we solidified our commitment to sustainability, announcing specific and measurable environmental sustainability goals for calendar 2022 and 2030. These commitments will be a milestone toward our aspirational goals of reducing absolute greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from our calendar 2018 baseline, transitioning to 100% renewable energy where available, conserving 100% of our water use and sending 0 waste to landfills. Reaching our goals will require investment. And as we have previously discussed, we plan to devote approximately 2% of annual capital expenditures to environmental sustainability initiatives, amounting to about $1 billion over the next 5 to 7 years.

    美光的轉型是在全球面臨前所未有的環境挑戰的背景下進行的。我們在運營中也必須對環境負責,而美光在這一領域發揮著領導作用。上個月,我們鞏固了對可持續發展的承諾,宣布了 2022 年和 2030 年具體且可衡量的環境可持續發展目標。這些承諾將成為實現我們將溫室氣體絕對排放量從 2018 年基準減少 40% 的理想目標的里程碑,過渡到100% 可再生能源(如果可用),節約 100% 的用水量並將 0 個廢物送到垃圾填埋場。實現我們的目標需要投資。正如我們之前所討論的,我們計劃將大約 2% 的年度資本支出用於環境可持續發展計劃,在未來 5 到 7 年內達到約 10 億美元。

  • We will now open for questions.

    我們現在開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Sanjay, in your prepared remarks, you noted your expectations for the DRAM market -- or the conditions there rather to improve in the second half of calendar '21. I guess I'm curious, in making that statement, what sort of assumptions you're making on the demand side as well as the supply side over the next couple of quarters. It appears as though you're seeing supply side cuts from not just yourselves but also from your peers. And if anything, the demand outlook in the server space remains fairly muted today. So do you expect server demand to remain weak and therefore, you're only expecting a recovery in the second half? Or what's sort of the key drivers in the timing of the recovery?

    Sanjay,在你準備好的評論中,你提到了你對 DRAM 市場的期望——或者說那裡的條件在 21 年下半年會有所改善。我想我很好奇,在做出這樣的聲明時,你在接下來的幾個季度中對需求方和供應方做了什麼樣的假設。似乎您不僅看到了來自您自己而且還來自您的同行的供應方面的削減。如果有的話,今天服務器領域的需求前景仍然相當低迷。那麼您是否預計服務器需求將保持疲軟,因此您只預計下半年會復蘇?或者說復甦時機的關鍵驅動因素是什麼?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So first of all, let me just point out, you said recovery in the second half of calendar year '20. What we said is in the second half of our fiscal year '20. And DRAM, of course, the long-term drivers of growth are secular in nature. Trend of AI and 5G, of course, will be a continuing driver of growth. In the near term, as you know, our -- from an industry point of view, enterprise servers have been weak, and that's impacting the demand outlook.

    所以首先,讓我指出,你說的是 20 年下半年的複蘇。我們所說的是在我們 20 財年的下半年。當然,DRAM 的長期增長動力本質上是長期的。當然,人工智能和 5G 的趨勢將成為持續增長的動力。如您所知,在短期內,從行業的角度來看,企業服務器一直很弱,這影響了需求前景。

  • And you also have to remember the context of the first half of the year. In the first half of calendar year 2020, as we had entered the year, we were definitely looking at strong demand trends building up through the year. The inventories, by and large, had normalized in the industry. And then we got hit by COVID, and that definitely impacted the demand outlook. It accelerated it in cloud for a while. It accelerated it in enterprise as well as financial and other sectors invested in enterprise server side. However, enterprise has generally been weak.

    而且你還必須記住上半年的背景。在 2020 年上半年,隨著我們進入這一年,我們肯定會看到全年強勁的需求趨勢。總體而言,該行業的庫存已正常化。然後我們受到了 COVID 的打擊,這無疑影響了需求前景。它在雲中加速了一段時間。加速在企業以及金融等領域投入企業服務器端。然而,企業普遍疲軟。

  • Cloud demand, given the work from home and e-commerce and streaming, all these kind of applications have driven a strong growth on the cloud side, and we expect cloud to continue to be healthy in the second half. Of course, the first half of the calendar year 2020 saw a surge in demand in cloud. In the second half, we expect it to be somewhat moderated compared to the first half levels. But cloud will continue to be in a healthy place in -- over the F Q1 and F Q2 time frame, and it is the long-term driver of growth as well.

    雲需求,鑑於來自家庭和電子商務和流媒體的工作,所有這些類型的應用程序都推動了雲方面的強勁增長,我們預計雲在下半年將繼續保持健康。當然,2020 年上半年雲需求激增。與上半年相比,我們預計下半年會有所緩和。但在第一季度和第二季度的時間框架內,雲將繼續處於健康的位置,它也是增長的長期驅動力。

  • 5G phones will be a strong driver of growth. And remember, in 2020 because of COVID, total smartphone unit sales got impacted and got lowered by something around 10% on a year-over-year basis. But in 2021, smartphone sales are expected to pick up. In fact, smartphone sales are already picking up in the marketplace right now. So not only is it a story of increasing smartphone sales as we go through calendar 2021 beyond the seasonally slower first quarter of the calendar, but it is also the story in 5G of higher content, both for memory and storage.

    5G手機將成為增長的強勁動力。請記住,在 2020 年,由於 COVID,智能手機總銷量受到了影響,並且同比下降了 10% 左右。但到 2021 年,智能手機銷量有望回升。事實上,智能手機的銷售現在已經在市場上回升。因此,隨著我們在 2021 年日曆的第一季度季節性放緩之後,這不僅是智能手機銷量增加的故事,而且也是 5G 更高內容的故事,包括內存和存儲。

  • So these are the demand drivers that are driving -- that are giving us optimistic outlook for DRAM demand in calendar year 2021 continuing to improve starting from the beginning of the year, particularly as we get past the seasonal calendar Q1 time frame.

    因此,這些是推動需求的驅動因素——它們使我們對 2021 日曆年 DRAM 需求的樂觀前景從年初開始繼續改善,特別是當我們超過季節性日曆 Q1 時間框架時。

  • And of course, as you pointed out, the CapEx in the DRAM industry has been disciplined. And that would position the industry -- when we look at the backdrop of demand expectation of approximately 20% in calendar year 2021, or 20% growth in DRAM, and look at the CapEx discipline that has existed in the industry, we. Think the environment -- overall, these dynamics bode well for a healthy environment in our second fiscal half of 2021 for DRAM. And of course, for ourselves, our second-generation DRAM, the -- our 1-alpha node, which will begin production in fiscal year 2021, will position us very well. And our underlying momentum of our product portfolio, both in NAND and DRAM, will position us well as we go through calendar year 2021.

    當然,正如您所指出的,DRAM 行業的資本支出是有規律的。這將為行業定位——當我們看到 2021 日曆年需求預期約為 20% 或 DRAM 增長 20% 的背景,以及行業中已經存在的資本支出規則時,我們。想想環境——總的來說,這些動態預示著我們 2021 年下半年 DRAM 的健康環境。當然,對於我們自己來說,我們的第二代 DRAM,即我們的 1-alpha 節點,將於 2021 財年開始生產,這將使我們處於非常有利的位置。我們在 NAND 和 DRAM 方面的產品組合的潛在發展勢頭將使我們在 2021 日曆年處於有利地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Sanjay, Dave, I wanted to talk a little bit kind of the margin profile for November and beyond. Dave, you mentioned that with the Huawei ban, you're going to see a mix shift towards NAND. If it was roughly kind of 70-20 in the August quarter, how do you think that trends into November and February? And does it get worse again in February or not? And I guess, just given that you guys are ahead of schedule on your move to higher-value NAND, how should we think about gross margin progression in NAND from here? I know that the mix has been hampered by the lack of cost down with replacement gate. But I'm just kind of curious as how we should think about gross margin progression going forward in NAND just given that you've already hit your mix of high-value targets.

    桑傑、戴夫,我想談談 11 月及以後的利潤率概況。戴夫,您提到隨著華為禁令,您將看到向 NAND 的混合轉變。如果在 8 月季度大約是 70-20,那麼您如何看待 11 月和 2 月的趨勢? 2 月份情況會再次惡化嗎?而且我想,鑑於你們提前轉向更高價值的 NAND,我們應該如何從這裡考慮 NAND 的毛利率增長?我知道由於更換門無法降低成本,這種混合受到了阻礙。但我只是有點好奇我們應該如何考慮 NAND 的毛利率進展,因為你已經達到了高價值目標的組合。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay. That was a 3-part question in one. Good job, John. So let's talk a little bit about the mix. Obviously, mix was pretty favorable in the fourth fiscal quarter. DRAM jumped up quite a bit from the previous quarter, up to low 70s as a percent of our total revenue. We'd expect that to come down modestly and NAND to come up modestly. I'm not sure it's going to be the most significant story around gross margin, but it certainly will be a headwind. Tough to call on the second quarter. We do expect continued growth in NAND and probably flattish in DRAM, so there's probably a little bit more incremental mix headwind there. But as Sanjay indicated, in the back half of the fiscal year, we're very bullish around a lot of the markets that DRAM supports, like cloud, like the mobile space for 5G. And so we do expect a healthy recovery in DRAM beyond that.

    好的。那是一個三部分的問題。幹得好,約翰。所以讓我們談談混合。顯然,第四財季的組合相當有利。 DRAM 較上一季度大幅上漲,占我們總收入的百分比高達 70 年代的低點。我們預計會適度下降,而 NAND 會適度上升。我不確定這是否會成為毛利率方面最重要的故事,但肯定會是逆風。很難在第二季度打電話。我們確實預計 NAND 將繼續增長,而 DRAM 可能會持平,因此那裡可能會有更多的增量混合逆風。但正如 Sanjay 指出的那樣,在本財年的後半段,我們非常看好 DRAM 支持的許多市場,比如雲,比如 5G 的移動空間。因此,我們確實預計 DRAM 將出現健康復蘇。

  • You mentioned the high-value solutions. That obviously has been helpful and accretive to our business so far. We are continuing to drive that. We -- in fact, actually, now the story is even beyond NAND. It goes into the DRAM space, for example, with graphics. I talked about that it would start out being a little bit of a headwind on our gross margin in the first fiscal quarter because of the early ramp of the product. But as that hits its stride, as we go through fiscal and calendar 2021, we would expect that to be very beneficial on the gross margin side.

    你提到了高價值的解決方案。到目前為止,這顯然對我們的業務有所幫助和增值。我們將繼續推動這一點。我們——事實上,實際上,現在的故事甚至超出了 NAND。例如,它通過圖形進入 DRAM 空間。我談到,由於產品的早期增長,它會在第一財季開始對我們的毛利率造成一點阻力。但是,隨著我們進入 2021 財年和日曆年,隨著它的發展,我們預計這對毛利率方面非常有利。

  • You mentioned also replacement gate. So as you know, replacement gate has kept our cost reductions on the NAND front relatively flat in fiscal '20. But the only real cost reduction we got in fiscal 2021 out of NAND was really the depreciation change. There's not a huge change in the fiscal first quarter around NAND as the first-generation replacement gate still is the major story there. But as Sanjay talked about, we will be ramping second-generation replacement gate next year, and so that should be a benefit. We do think that those cost reductions are quite positive and should be very helpful in driving what we said in the prepared remarks is low single -- low double-digit cost declines on NAND, and that's with mix being a factor in it. And so it's even better without that.

    您還提到了更換門。如您所知,在 20 財年,替換門使我們在 NAND 方面的成本降低相對持平。但我們在 2021 財年從 NAND 中獲得的唯一真正成本降低實際上是折舊變化。第一財季圍繞 NAND 並沒有太大變化,因為第一代替換門仍然是那裡的主要故事。但正如 Sanjay 所說,我們將在明年推出第二代替換門,所以這應該是一個好處。我們確實認為這些成本降低是非常積極的,應該非常有助於推動我們在準備好的評論中所說的低個位數 - NAND 的低兩位數成本下降,而混合是其中的一個因素。所以沒有它會更好。

  • And also, I would say, on the DRAM front, we are looking at our cost reductions next year and even with mix, should be pretty respectable. And that includes all that increased cost and higher-margin products that will be shipping next year, but also will include the -- graphics will also benefit the gross margins as well. Sorry, I think I said -- on NAND, I said low mid-teens cost, but it's actually low double-digit, I should say, cost reductions -- or low to mid-teen cost reductions, instead of low double-digit cost reduction.

    而且,我想說,在 DRAM 方面,我們正在考慮明年的成本降低,即使是混合,也應該是相當可觀的。這包括所有將在明年出貨的成本增加和利潤率更高的產品,但也將包括——圖形也將有利於毛利率。抱歉,我想我說過——在 NAND 上,我說的是低中位數的成本,但實際上是低兩位數,我應該說是降低成本——或者說是低到中位數的成本降低,而不是低兩位數降低成本。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Dave, maybe another way to ask the question is when you take pricing out of the equation, because I know that's the biggest driver, are the other drivers of sort of gross margin progression -- are the headwinds peaking in the November quarter? Or would you expect them to stick around into February and beyond?

    戴夫,也許另一種問這個問題的方式是,當您將定價排除在等式之外時,因為我知道這是最大的驅動因素,其他驅動因素是毛利率增長 - 逆風是否在 11 月季度達到頂峰?還是您希望他們能堅持到二月及以後?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • On the DRAM front, whether it extends into the second quarter, it's possible. But I think in the back half of the year, it's certainly going to be a good story on the gross margin front as we get more mature yields on those products. On the NAND front, I think -- really, I think the bigger driver is going to be this switch over to the second-generation replacement gate, and that's really where we'll start to see the cost improvement because we're at a pretty high level of high-value solutions on the NAND front.

    在 DRAM 方面,無論是否延續到第二季度,都是有可能的。但我認為,在今年下半年,隨著我們在這些產品上獲得更成熟的收益率,這在毛利率方面肯定會是一個好故事。在 NAND 方面,我認為——真的,我認為更大的驅動力將是切換到第二代替代門,這就是我們真正開始看到成本改善的地方,因為我們處於在 NAND 方面提供了相當高水平的高價值解決方案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 C.J. Muse 和 Evercore。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess, Dave, to follow on to John's question. If we could isolate just on the DRAM gross margin side of things, it looks like it's an implied gross margin for November around 31%. And just curious, that's below the fiscal '20 trough. And so within that, how much of that is conservatism around pricing? Is there a write-down of Huawei inventory? And I guess, what kind of snapback specifically to the mix around HBM and graphics should we see in terms of a gross margin snapback into the second half of fiscal '21?

    我想,戴夫,繼續回答約翰的問題。如果我們可以僅從 DRAM 毛利率方面進行隔離,那麼 11 月份的隱含毛利率似乎在 31% 左右。只是好奇,這低於 20 財年的低谷。因此,其中有多少是圍繞定價的保守主義?華為庫存有減記嗎?而且我想,就 21 財年下半年的毛利率回升而言,我們應該看到什麼樣的回升專門針對 HBM 和圖形的組合?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So the Huawei impacts that we had on the gross margin front were largely accounted for in the fourth fiscal quarter, although there is potential for more depending on how the rest of the bits get consumed.

    是的。因此,我們對毛利率的影響主要體現在第四財季,儘管根據其餘部分的消耗方式,可能會產生更多影響。

  • On the high-value products within DRAM, clearly, the first couple of quarters, the -- will be somewhat of a kind of headwind to the gross margins, but it's simply kind of a ramp timing challenge. And it just so happens that where we're seeing pricing be a little bit more negative, that just so happens to coincide with a couple of quarters where our costs are kind of running higher. But I don't really think -- I mean, this is somewhat of a near-term challenge that will correct itself over time, particularly as -- again, as those products get to more mature yields and we get the mix going in the right direction for us.

    顯然,在 DRAM 中的高價值產品上,前幾個季度,這對毛利率有點不利,但這只是一種坡道時機挑戰。碰巧的是,我們看到定價有點負面,恰好與我們的成本運行更高的幾個季度相吻合。但我真的不認為——我的意思是,這在某種程度上是一個短期挑戰,隨著時間的推移會自我糾正,尤其是——再次,隨著這些產品達到更成熟的產量,我們將混合對我們來說是正確的方向。

  • I would tell you just as it relates -- we obviously don't want to go into details around the difference in margins between DRAM and NAND specifically. I would just tell you that your estimate of DRAM is low relative to what it is in reality.

    我會直接告訴你——我們顯然不想詳細討論 DRAM 和 NAND 之間的利潤率差異。我只想告訴你,你對 DRAM 的估計相對於實際情況來說是低的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Blayne Curtis。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • I was just curious on Huawei. I just want to confirm, I think you said you're not shipping to them. There has been some stories about companies getting licenses on the server side. Just your perspective, one, you're totally not shipping. When you said 10%, I know you -- it sounded like there was maybe some catch-up before the 15th. Just kind of curious how elevated that was. And then any prospects on getting a license going forward?

    我只是對華為很好奇。我只是想確認一下,我想你說你不給他們發貨。有一些關於公司在服務器端獲得許可證的故事。只是你的觀點,一個,你完全沒有發貨。當你說 10% 時,我知道你——聽起來在 15 號之前可能會有一些追趕。只是有點好奇這有多高。然後有任何獲得許可證的前景嗎?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So in our fiscal fourth quarter, Huawei was slightly under 10% of our total revenue. And given that the order had come in from the commerce pretty late in the quarter, in terms of any upside from Huawei in our fiscal fourth quarter, it was really very, very small. Now with respect to F Q1, yes, we stopped shipments effective September 14. So what that means is that our revenue declined substantially with Huawei in fiscal Q1, and that clearly is a significant headwind to us. Huawei has been a large customer to us, not only in F Q4 of 2020, but as we have reported before, it has been our largest customer for a significant period of time in prior several quarters as well. So the impact of Huawei-related commerce department ruling is a significant impact to our revenue in F Q1. And obviously, it is baked into our F Q1 guidance here.

    因此,在我們第四財季,華為占我們總收入的比例略低於 10%。鑑於訂單是在本季度晚些時候從商業部門收到的,就我們第四財季華為的任何上漲而言,它真的非常非常小。現在就 F Q1 而言,是的,我們從 9 月 14 日起停止發貨。這意味著我們在第一財季與華為合作的收入大幅下降,這顯然對我們來說是一個重大不利因素。華為一直是我們的大客戶,不僅在 2020 年第四季度,而且正如我們之前報導的那樣,在前幾個季度的很長一段時間裡,它也是我們最大的客戶。因此,與華為相關的商務部裁決的影響對我們第一季度的收入產生了重大影響。顯然,它已納入我們的 F Q1 指南。

  • Specific to the licenses, we have applied for licenses. It's important to understand that our previous licenses did not give us the ability -- our previous licenses, at this point, do not give us the ability to ship to Huawei from our non-U.S. fabs. We need new licenses for that, which we have applied for, and we do not know if and when those licenses would be granted.

    具體到牌照,我們已經申請了牌照。重要的是要了解,我們之前的許可證並沒有賦予我們能力——在這一點上,我們之前的許可證並沒有讓我們能夠從我們的非美國晶圓廠向華為發貨。我們需要新的許可證,我們已經申請了,我們不知道是否以及何時會授予這些許可證。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • And then is there a way to think about in terms of, particularly in the mobile market, customers positioning to try to take share from Huawei? And if you've seen any uptick in the mobile market as a result of that?

    那麼有沒有辦法考慮,尤其是在移動市場,客戶定位以試圖從華為那裡搶份額?如果您因此看到移動市場的任何上漲?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So as we said in our prepared remarks that with respect to the lost opportunity with Huawei, it will take us a while to shift our production as well as address the demand from other customers within the mobile ecosystem. There is no question that the end market mobile demand will be what it is projected to be. And to the extent that Huawei is not able to fulfill that demand going forward, that demand will be supplied by other smartphone manufacturers. Micron is well engaged with the entire ecosystem of smartphone manufacturers. We have had strong relationships with those customers. We have been a strong supplier to them. Our portfolio of solutions has only strengthened over time, making us a valued partner to the rest of the mobile ecosystem as well. So as we shift from Huawei toward those other customers, it will take us some time. It will have impact in F Q1, as I noted earlier. It will have less impact in F Q2. But by end of F Q2 and beyond, we will be able to make up for any loss on the Huawei front with other smartphone manufacturers, assuming that we don't get a license to Huawei in this time frame.

    因此,正如我們在準備好的評論中所說,對於華為失去的機會,我們需要一段時間來轉移我們的生產以及滿足移動生態系統中其他客戶的需求。毫無疑問,終端市場的移動需求將是預期的那樣。如果華為未來無法滿足這一需求,那麼該需求將由其他智能手機製造商提供。美光與智能手機製造商的整個生態系統有著良好的合作關係。我們與這些客戶建立了牢固的關係。我們一直是他們的強大供應商。隨著時間的推移,我們的解決方案組合不斷加強,使我們成為移動生態系統其他部分的重要合作夥伴。因此,當我們從華為轉向其他客戶時,我們需要一些時間。正如我之前提到的,它將對 F Q1 產生影響。它將對 F Q2 的影響較小。但到第二季度末及以後,我們將能夠彌補與其他智能手機製造商在華為方面的任何損失,假設我們在這個時間框架內沒有獲得華為的許可。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • On your enterprise SSD business, it's been obviously a big contributor to the value-added mix shift. I believe your share has grown about 300 basis points since the beginning of this year. You guys are in a strong #3 global share position. Is the momentum coming from your SATA-based portfolio? Or is it more growth in share gains from your newer NVMe-based products? And on the November guide, are you seeing a slowdown in this segment given the weaker enterprise trends? And just longer term, as you look into next year, how is the team planning to maintain its share momentum in this segment?

    在您的企業 SSD 業務中,它顯然是增值組合轉變的重要貢獻者。我相信你的份額自今年年初以來已經增長了大約 300 個基點。你們處於強大的#3 全球份額位置。動力是否來自您基於 SATA 的產品組合?還是您的基於 NVMe 的新產品的份額收益增長更多?在 11 月指南中,鑑於企業趨勢疲軟,您是否看到該細分市場出現放緩?從長遠來看,當您展望明年時,該團隊計劃如何保持其在這一領域的份額勢頭?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So certainly, our SATA leadership has helped us in the enterprise data center market. And SATA still is a meaningful portion of the enterprise SSD market, even though it is shifting rapidly to NVMe. And yes, we have a growing presence in enterprise with our NVMe solutions and we have good products, although we are in early stages of growing our NVMe opportunity. And yes, for future quarters, as we go through fiscal 2021 and calendar 2021, we will continue to expand our portfolio of solutions with NVMe products targeted for a broader set of applications in the enterprise space.

    當然,我們的 SATA 領導地位幫助我們進入了企業數據中心市場。 SATA 仍然是企業級 SSD 市場的重要組成部分,儘管它正在迅速轉向 NVMe。是的,我們的 NVMe 解決方案在企業中的影響力越來越大,而且我們有很好的產品,儘管我們正處於增加 NVMe 機會的早期階段。是的,對於未來幾個季度,隨著我們進入 2021 財年和 2021 年日曆,我們將繼續使用 NVMe 產品擴展我們的解決方案組合,這些產品針對企業領域中更廣泛的應用程序集。

  • And as you noted, we have done well with our SSD solutions. Compared to years past, we have continued to expand our portfolio in not only enterprise, but also on the client PC side and consumer SSD side. In fact, our QLC is a good success story here, as we noted in our remarks, with the broadest portfolio in enterprise SSDs as well as client and consumer SSDs. So we will be bringing out exciting new products over the course of 2020 and 2021 time frame. And we certainly do plan to increase our presence in the SSD marketplace with a broader and richer portfolio of solutions.

    正如您所指出的,我們的 SSD 解決方案做得很好。與往年相比,我們不僅在企業領域,還在客戶端 PC 端和消費級 SSD 端繼續擴展我們的產品組合。事實上,正如我們在評論中指出的那樣,我們的 QLC 在這裡是一個很好的成功案例,在企業 SSD 以及客戶端和消費類 SSD 中擁有最廣泛的產品組合。因此,我們將在 2020 年和 2021 年期間推出令人興奮的新產品。我們確實計劃通過更廣泛和更豐富的解決方案組合來增加我們在 SSD 市場的影響力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I guess I wanted to ask on Huawei again. So obviously, it's public that the processor companies have gotten a license. So I certainly understand that you have to take this out of your guidance. But if they got a license, I guess, why wouldn't you, would be the first part of that question? And then the second question is, can you help us think about sort of handicapping -- if you did get a license, could we just add 10% back? Do you think it would go back to being roughly a 10% customer? I guess I'm asking all this because this has been going on for some time, and you seem to always have the view that the bits were fairly fungible. But now it sounds like it's going to take 6 months if you don't get a license. So I'm just wondering if you can sort of double-click on that for me.

    我想我想再問一下華為。很明顯,處理器公司已獲得許可證是公開的。因此,我當然理解您必須將其排除在您的指導之外。但是,如果他們獲得了許可證,我想,你為什麼不成為這個問題的第一部分?然後第二個問題是,你能幫我們考慮一下這種限制——如果你確實獲得了執照,我們可以加回 10% 嗎?你認為它會回到大約 10% 的客戶嗎?我想我問這一切是因為這已經持續了一段時間,而且你似乎總是認為這些比特是相當可替代的。但是現在聽起來如果你沒有獲得執照,這將需要 6 個月的時間。所以我只是想知道你是否可以為我雙擊它。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So first of all, we really cannot comment on other companies obtaining licenses. As we noted, that we have applied for licenses, but we cannot speculate if and when those licenses will be granted. And with respect to if licenses are granted, obviously, it will depend on what is Huawei's demand at that point. We will, of course, always supply to our customers and always make sure that we are meeting our commitments to our customers. Huawei, along with other customers, have been valued partners. So if we are given the opportunity with licenses to supply to Huawei, we will certainly be -- become a partner again given the strong partnership we have enjoyed in the past with them. But it will really depend on what is their demand profile at that point, what have been our commitments to other customers already in place, and we'll have to manage through all of that. But certainly, if licenses are granted, we will have a growing opportunity to engage again with Huawei.

    所以首先,我們真的不能評論其他公司獲得許可證。正如我們所指出的,我們已經申請了許可證,但我們無法推測是否以及何時會授予這些許可證。至於是否獲得許可,顯然,這將取決於華為當時的需求。當然,我們將始終為我們的客戶提供產品,並始終確保我們履行對客戶的承諾。華為和其他客戶一直是重要的合作夥伴。因此,如果我們有機會獲得向華為供貨的許可證,我們肯定會再次成為合作夥伴,因為我們過去與他們建立了牢固的合作夥伴關係。但這實際上取決於他們當時的需求狀況,我們對其他客戶的承諾已經到位,我們必須管理所有這些。但可以肯定的是,如果獲得許可,我們將有越來越多的機會再次與華為合作。

  • And that's -- remember, that's our goal. We always want to have a broad portfolio of products and a diversified set of customers. We have done well in this area over time. And as you can see that even though the largest customer in Huawei essentially in a very short period of time disappears for us in terms of revenue opportunity, we are able to address it given our portfolio and given our customer engagement with the rest of the customers. But it just takes supply chain -- the nature of the semiconductor supply chain is that it does take a while to shift that production. Even for other smartphone manufacturers in terms of filling any void created by Huawei, it does take them to adjust things in the supply chain as well. So we will, of course, continue to work with the broad ecosystem of smartphone suppliers to address the future demand for smartphone.

    那就是——記住,這是我們的目標。我們一直希望擁有廣泛的產品組合和多元化的客戶群。隨著時間的推移,我們在這方面做得很好。正如您所看到的,即使華為最大的客戶基本上在很短的時間內就收入機會而言對我們來說消失了,但鑑於我們的產品組合和客戶與其他客戶的互動,我們能夠解決這個問題.但它只需要供應鏈——半導體供應鏈的本質是轉移生產確實需要一段時間。即使對於其他智能手機製造商來說,在填補華為創造的任何空白方面,他們也需要在供應鏈中進行調整。因此,我們當然會繼續與廣泛的智能手機供應商生態系統合作,以滿足未來對智能手機的需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 RBC Capital 的 Mitch Steves。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • I have one where it's a little more on the technical side. So I think we've seen x86 and ARM come up more and more on the service side as the base point. So I'm just curious, if we do see a future where there's more ARM-based servers, does that change the overall demand for DRAM or memory in general? Or is there no real change if we move into an ARM-based environment?

    我有一個在技術方面更多一點的地方。所以我認為我們已經看到 x86 和 ARM 越來越多地出現在服務端作為基點。所以我很好奇,如果我們確實看到未來會有更多基於 ARM 的服務器,這會改變對 DRAM 或內存的總體需求嗎?或者,如果我們進入基於 ARM 的環境,是否沒有真正的變化?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • No. Regardless of the kind of compute architecture, whether it is x86-based or GPU-based or ARM-based, I mean, the need for memory and storage is there in all those architectures in all those applications. The need is being driven by trends like AI. AI relies on more and more data to derive greater intelligence and greater value for business and consumer experiences. So regardless of how the hardware platform is built, all applications require more memory and storage. And for example, in mobile, there is a great deployment of ARM processors today, and Micron is a strong supplier, and mobile is a large market for memory and storage applications. Basically, that just creates an opportunity for more choices for customers and just only diversifies our applications and our end market opportunity for memory and storage.

    不。無論哪種計算架構,無論是基於 x86、GPU 還是基於 ARM,我的意思是,所有這些應用程序的所有這些架構都需要內存和存儲。這種需求是由人工智能等趨勢驅動的。人工智能依靠越來越多的數據來為商業和消費者體驗獲得更大的智能和更大的價值。因此,無論硬件平台如何構建,所有應用程序都需要更多的內存和存儲空間。並且例如在移動領域,今天大量部署了 ARM 處理器,而美光是強大的供應商,而移動則是內存和存儲應用的巨大市場。基本上,這只會為客戶創造更多選擇的機會,只會使我們的應用程序和內存和存儲的終端市場機會多樣化。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just one small one. You guys mentioned that you're having trouble getting certain components. It was unclear to me whether that's data center or smartphone-related. Can you maybe just give us an idea of what's going on and what type of components you guys are unable to find to create some of these products?

    好的。然後只有一小塊。你們提到你在獲取某些組件時遇到了麻煩。我不清楚這是數據中心還是智能手機相關。您能否告訴我們正在發生的事情以及你們無法找到哪些類型的組件來創建這些產品?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • To be clear, we were not referring to components that we are not able to procure. I was referring in my prepared remarks that in the PC segment, particularly with the surge in demand in notebook, particularly Chromebooks, there have been -- in the PC supply chain, there have been certain component shortages that PC manufacturers have frankly talked about in their own earnings calls. So it's not any component shortages for Micron's supply chain. We were just referring to the end market component shortages in the PC supply chain. That has some impact on the demand when they're not able to procure all the components they need for their notebook and Chromebook builds.

    需要明確的是,我們指的不是我們無法採購的組件。我在準備好的評論中提到,在 PC 領域,特別是隨著筆記本電腦,特別是 Chromebook 的需求激增,在 PC 供應鏈中,PC 製造商坦率地談到了某些組件短缺。他們自己的收益電話。因此,美光的供應鏈並不存在任何組件短缺。我們只是指 PC 供應鏈中的終端市場組件短缺。當他們無法採購筆記本和 Chromebook 構建所需的所有組件時,這會對需求產生一些影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

  • Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • I had a question on the cost side. Dave, I just wanted to make sure I understood this. So when you started fiscal '20, on the DRAM side, you had talked about high single-digit cost down, but then I think in the middle of the year, you had said that it would be low single digit. So question is, what did the cost down end up being for the fiscal year? And then for fiscal '21, you're saying low single-digit again. Is that partly because of the Huawei impact in fiscal 1Q? Or is that the new normal? Or is there the impact of lower yields? I'm just trying to understand that.

    我有一個關於成本方面的問題。戴夫,我只是想確保我理解這一點。因此,當您在 20 財年開始時,在 DRAM 方面,您談到了高個位數的成本下降,但我認為在年中,您曾說過它將是低個位數。所以問題是,本財年的成本下降最終是什麼?然後對於 '21 財年,你又說低個位數。部分原因是華為對第一財季的影響嗎?還是這是新常態?還是有較低收益率的影響?我只是想明白這一點。

  • And then a follow-up, Sanjay. You seem to have raised the flag on NAND industry profitability for the full year. Could you -- and if I caught that correct, could you give a little bit more details around that comments you made in your prepared remarks?

    然後是後續行動,桑傑。您似乎已經提高了全年 NAND 行業盈利能力的標誌。您能否 - 如果我發現正確,您能否就您在準備好的評論中所做的評論提供更多細節?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay. So on the cost front, just to be clear, Ambrish, it was -- the cost declines in FY '20 were -- on DRAM were in the mid-single digits. And the expectation would be they would be somewhat in mid-single digits again in FY '21. On FY '20, there wasn't really much mix that impacted it. So that was legitimately what the cost was. There were a few things that we probably could have executed a little bit better on that drove a little bit of it. I'd also say we had a lot of COVID mitigation expenses running over time in different areas and tariffs went higher than we expected. So there were some things that kind of went against us as it relates to COVID, and that kind of muted our cost improvement for FY '20.

    好的。因此,在成本方面,為了清楚起見,Ambrish,20 財年的成本下降是 - 在 DRAM 上處於中個位數。並且期望他們在 21 財年再次達到中個位數。在 20 財年,並沒有太多影響它的組合。所以這就是合理的成本。有一些事情我們可能可以執行得更好一點,從而推動了它的發展。我還要說,隨著時間的推移,我們在不同地區有很多緩解 COVID 的費用,而且關稅比我們預期的要高。因此,在與 COVID 相關的情況下,有些事情對我們不利,這使我們在 20 財年的成本改善減弱了。

  • I would say on '21, this mid-single-digit cost decline includes the impacts of mix. So if you strip that out, we'd actually be quite a bit above the mid-single-digit figure and more in line with kind of the numbers we're trying to drive. So I think we're in very good shape on the cost side for FY '21. It just -- it starts out a little rough just because we got to ramp these newer products. But for the year, it should be really good. And once we really hit our stride on 1-alpha, we're really bullish about the cost reductions there. So that's probably not until the following year, but that will start to help further.

    我會在 21 年說,這種中個位數的成本下降包括混合的影響。所以如果你把它去掉,我們實際上會比中位數的數字高很多,而且更符合我們試圖推動的數字。所以我認為我們在 21 財年的成本方面處於非常好的狀態。只是 - 剛開始有點粗糙,因為我們必須推出這些新產品。但就今年而言,它應該是非常好的。一旦我們真正在 1-alpha 上大踏步前進,我們就會非常看好那裡的成本降低。所以這可能要到第二年,但這將開始進一步提供幫助。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So on the second part of your question related to NAND profitability. So as you know, NAND profitability in the industry today is low. I mean DRAM profitability is significantly better than NAND profitability. DRAM industry is certainly exercising good discipline with respect to CapEx, and that bodes well for -- as we said earlier, for the industry environment as we go through calendar year 2021.

    因此,關於與 NAND 盈利能力相關的問題的第二部分。如您所知,當今行業的 NAND 盈利能力很低。我的意思是 DRAM 的盈利能力明顯優於 NAND 的盈利能力。 DRAM 行業在資本支出方面當然表現良好,正如我們之前所說,這對於我們經歷 2021 日曆年的行業環境來說是個好兆頭。

  • On the NAND side, what we are highlighting is that given the low profitability levels, there is a risk to improving the profitability of the industry unless demand ends up being higher than our estimations of approximately 30% demand growth next year or with CapEx restraint, the supply side in the industry gets managed better. Of course, it is too early to comment holistically on 2020 industry supply growth. But with the current estimations that we have, we believe that discipline on the CapEx side is needed in the NAND industry to restore the healthier profitability levels of NAND.

    在 NAND 方面,我們強調的是,鑑於盈利水平較低,除非需求最終高於我們對明年需求增長約 30% 的估計或資本支出受到限制,否則該行業的盈利能力存在提高的風險,行業的供給側得到更好的管理。當然,現在全面評論 2020 年行業供應增長還為時過早。但根據我們目前的估計,我們認為 NAND 行業需要資本支出方面的紀律,以恢復 NAND 更健康的盈利水平。

  • Of course, on Micron's part, as we highlighted, our strategy always is to focus on growing our supply in line with demand. That means we plan to have supply growth CAGR to be in line with the industry demand growth CAGR, both for DRAM and NAND. And on NAND, this year, that means in calendar year 2020, our NAND supply growth will be significantly less than the industry demand given the RG transition.

    當然,就美光而言,正如我們強調的那樣,我們的戰略始終是專注於根據需求增加供應。這意味著我們計劃讓 DRAM 和 NAND 的供應增長 CAGR 與行業需求增長 CAGR 保持一致。在 NAND 上,這意味著在 2020 日曆年,我們的 NAND 供應增長將大大低於 RG 轉型的行業需求。

  • And next year also, we are continuing to exercise our CapEx discipline on NAND with our supply growth next year in calendar year 2021 somewhat less than the expectation of the industry demand. Of course, in terms of shipment capability in calendar year 2021, we'll be able to fulfill that in line with the industry demand using the inventory -- the higher levels of inventory that we have been carrying in NAND.

    明年,我們將繼續對 NAND 執行資本支出紀律,明年 2021 日曆年的供應增長略低於行業需求的預期。當然,就 2021 日曆年的出貨能力而言,我們將能夠使用庫存——我們一直在 NAND 中攜帶的更高水平的庫存——來滿足行業需求。

  • So we are certainly exercising discipline in managing our transition here from floating gate to replacement gate as well as addressing the NAND opportunities in a disciplined fashion. And all I was pointing out was that CapEx discipline is needed on the part of the NAND industry as well to the store -- stronger levels of profitability versus the current low levels that exist in the industry.

    因此,我們在管理我們從浮動柵極到替代柵極的過渡以及以有紀律的方式解決 NAND 機會方面當然是在執行紀律。我要指出的是,NAND 行業以及商店都需要資本支出紀律——與目前行業中存在的低水平相比,更高的盈利水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's question-and-answer session as well as today's conference call. You may now conclude and disconnect.

    女士們,先生們,感謝你們參加今天的問答環節以及今天的電話會議。您現在可以結束並斷開連接。