美光科技 (MU) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Latif, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Micron's Second Quarter 2021 Financial Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

    下午好。我叫 Latif,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。在這個時候,我想歡迎大家參加美光 2021 年第二季度財務發布電話會議。 (操作員說明)。現在我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人投資者關係副總裁 Farhan Ahmad。你可以開始你的會議了。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technologies Fiscal Second Quarter 2021 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO; and Dave Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will be approximately 60 minutes in length. This call, including the audio and slides, is also being webcast from our Investor Relations website at investors.micron.com. In addition, our website contains the earnings press release and the prepared remarks filed a short while ago.

    謝謝,歡迎參加美光科技 2021 財年第二季度財務電話會議。今天與我通話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra;和首席財務官 Dave Zinsner。今天的通話時間約為 60 分鐘。此次電話會議(包括音頻和幻燈片)也將通過我們的投資者關係網站investors.micron.com 進行網絡直播。此外,我們的網站還包含收益新聞稿和不久前提交的準備好的評論。

  • Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website. As a reminder, a webcast replay will be available on our website later today. We encourage you to monitor our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending. You can follow us on Twitter, @MicronTech.

    除非另有說明,否則今天對財務結果的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上進行。可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。提醒一下,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供網絡直播重播。我們鼓勵您在整個季度監控我們的網站 micron.com,以獲取有關公司的最新信息,包括我們將參加的各種財務會議的信息。您可以在 Twitter 上關注我們,@MicronTech。

  • As a reminder, the matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today. We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q for a discussion of risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after today's date to conform these statements to actual results.

    提醒一下,我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述存在重大差異。我們向您推薦我們向 SEC 提交的文件,特別是我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格,以討論可能影響我們未來結果的風險。儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的,但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。我們沒有義務在今天之後更新任何前瞻性陳述以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Farhan. Micron delivered strong F Q2 results above our original projections, driven by solid execution and higher-than-expected demand across multiple end markets. The DRAM market is in severe shortage and the NAND market is showing signs of stabilization in the near term. The execution from the Micron team and these (inaudible) conditions enabled us to set revenue records for mobile MCPs and automotive products and to reach normal levels of inventory ahead of schedule.

    謝謝你,法爾漢。受穩健執行和多個終端市場高於預期的需求推動,美光第二季度業績強勁,高於我們最初的預測。 DRAM市場嚴重缺貨,NAND市場近期呈現企穩跡象。美光團隊的執行和這些(聽不清)條件使我們能夠為移動 MCP 和汽車產品創造收入記錄,並提前達到正常的庫存水平。

  • Following last quarter's introduction of 176 layer NAND into volume production, in F Q2, we began volume production on our 1-alpha DRAM node, solidifying our technology leadership in both DRAM and NAND. We are in an excellent position to capitalize on the strong demand for memory and storage, driven by artificial intelligence and 5G across the data center, the intelligent edge and user devices.

    繼上個季度將 176 層 NAND 引入量產之後,在第二季度,我們開始在 1-alpha DRAM 節點上量產,鞏固了我們在 DRAM 和 NAND 方面的技術領先地位。在人工智能和 5G 跨越數據中心、智能邊緣和用戶設備的推動下,我們處於有利位置,可以利用對內存和存儲的強勁需求。

  • I'll start with an update on our operations. The Micron team is doing everything we can to meet customer demand despite the challenges of the pandemic, NAND memory component shortages in the electronics industry and disruptions that occurred in our Taiwan fabs in December. We are confident that our COVID-19 safety protocols will allow us to continue at full production levels and we are encouraged to see vaccines become increasingly available around the world.

    我將從更新我們的操作開始。儘管面臨大流行、電子行業 NAND 內存組件短缺以及 12 月台灣晶圓廠發生中斷等挑戰,美光團隊仍在竭盡全力滿足客戶需求。我們相信,我們的 COVID-19 安全協議將使我們能夠繼續全面生產,我們很高興看到疫苗在世界範圍內變得越來越容易獲得。

  • Micron has been able to mitigate the impact of broad electronics industry shortages to our production output through our proactive supply chain and inventory management strategies. Investments made over the last several years in facilities infrastructure allowed us to minimize lost output caused by the power outage and earthquake at our Taiwan operations in December. Recently, due to the drought in Central Taiwan, there has been a reduction in the water supply for one of our DRAM fab sites. To mitigate the water shortage, we are accelerating our water conservation efforts and have secured alternative sources of water. At this time, we do not see an impact to DRAM production output. However, this is a developing situation that we are monitoring closely for the next several months.

    美光通過我們積極的供應鍊和庫存管理戰略,能夠減輕廣泛的電子行業短缺對我們的產量的影響。過去幾年對設施基礎設施的投資使我們能夠最大程度地減少 12 月台灣業務因停電和地震造成的產量損失。最近,由於台灣中部的干旱,我們的 DRAM 工廠之一的供水減少了。為了緩解水資源短缺問題,我們正在加快節水工作,並確保了替代水源。目前,我們沒有看到對 DRAM 產量的影響。然而,這是一個發展中的情況,我們將在接下來的幾個月中密切關注。

  • Now turning to technology and products. We continue to make solid progress on our key goals. First, to deliver industry-leading technology and improve our cost structure; second, to bring differentiated products to market and improve our product mix; and third, to grow our share of industry profits while maintaining stable bit share. I'm proud to report that Micron was one of the top 20 U.S. patent registrants in 2020. This achievement attests to the brilliant innovation of our teams and is proof of the tenacious focus we have placed on technology and product leadership over the past several years.

    現在轉向技術和產品。我們繼續在我們的主要目標上取得紮實的進展。一是提供行業領先的技術,改善成本結構;第二,將差異化產品推向市場,完善產品結構;第三,在保持穩定的比特份額的同時增加我們的行業利潤份額。我很自豪地報告,美光是 2020 年美國前 20 名專利註冊人之一。這一成就證明了我們團隊的卓越創新,也證明了我們在過去幾年中對技術和產品領先地位的頑強關注.

  • Our industry-leading 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes are in volume production and are ramping on plan. We expect these nodes to be our workhorse for fiscal year '22, fueling our bit growth and contributing to our long-term cost-reduction goals. Across both DRAM and NAND, we target our long-term cost reductions that are in line with the industry.

    我們行業領先的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 層 NAND 節點已投入量產並按計劃進行。我們預計這些節點將成為我們 22 財年的主力軍,推動我們的比特增長並為我們的長期降低成本目標做出貢獻。在 DRAM 和 NAND 中,我們的目標是實現與行業一致的長期成本降低。

  • In products, Micron is on track to support customers as they begin to introduce DDR5 in the fiscal second half of 2021. We are also driving an increased mix of QLC NAND, which helps to make SSDs more cost-effective and accelerates the replacement of HDDs with SSDS. QLC SSD adoption continues to grow, and we achieved a record high QLC bit mix in F Q2.

    在產品方面,隨著客戶在 2021 財年下半年開始推出 DDR5,美光有望為客戶提供支持。我們還在推動增加 QLC NAND 的組合,這有助於提高 SSD 的成本效益並加速 HDD 的更換與 SSDS。 QLC SSD 採用率繼續增長,我們在 F Q2 中實現了創紀錄的 QLC 位組合。

  • Earlier this month, Micron took a decisive step to exit 3D XPoint development and manufacturing. As mentioned on our recent 3D XPoint update call, Micron is prioritizing investment toward other memory solutions that use the Compute Express Link, or CXL, and we're excited about addressing this market opportunity with differentiated products. Most of the R&D teams previously working on 3D XPoint have already been transitioned to other programs, including accelerating introduction of CXL-enabled memory products. This change will allow Micron to better address future needs of our data center customers and also drive higher ROI and shareholder value.

    本月早些時候,美光邁出了決定性的一步,退出了 3D XPoint 的開發和製造。正如我們在最近的 3D XPoint 更新電話中所提到的,美光正在優先投資使用 Compute Express Link 或 CXL 的其他內存解決方案,我們很高興能夠通過差異化產品抓住這一市場機會。大多數以前從事 3D XPoint 的研發團隊已經轉移到其他項目,包括加速推出支持 CXL 的內存產品。這一變化將使美光能夠更好地滿足我們數據中心客戶的未來需求,並推動更高的投資回報率和股東價值。

  • We are running an open process to identify the best acquirer for the Lehigh fab, which provides an excellent location for advanced foundry, logic and analog semiconductor manufacturing and expect to finalize the sale within calendar 2021. We anticipate that the overwhelming majority of the highly skilled Lehigh manufacturing team will find strong career opportunities with the buyer.

    我們正在運行一個開放的流程來確定 Lehigh 工廠的最佳收購方,該工廠為先進的代工、邏輯和模擬半導體製造提供了絕佳的位置,並預計將在 2021 年日曆內完成出售。我們預計絕大多數高技能的Lehigh 製造團隊將與買家一起找到強大的職業機會。

  • Turning to end markets. In data center, AI and data-centric workloads will drive long-term growth with memory and storage becoming an increasing portion of server BOM costs. Micron is positioned for success in this market with a broad portfolio of high-quality and power-efficient products. Enterprise demand, which had been anemic for the last few quarters, is starting to improve as IT budgets increase in anticipation of economic recovery. Enterprise DRAM bit shipments grew sharply quarter-over-quarter, but were still down year-over-year. Cloud DRAM bit shipments also grew quarter-over-quarter and we anticipate robust demand from U.S. hyperscale customers, especially as we enter the second half of calendar 2021.

    轉向終端市場。在數據中心,人工智能和以數據為中心的工作負載將推動長期增長,內存和存儲將成為服務器 BOM 成本中越來越大的一部分。美光憑藉廣泛的高品質和高能效產品組合在這個市場上取得成功。過去幾個季度一直疲軟的企業需求開始改善,因為 IT 預算因預期經濟復甦而增加。企業 DRAM 位出貨量環比大幅增長,但同比仍下降。雲 DRAM 位出貨量也環比增長,我們預計美國超大規模客戶的需求將強勁,尤其是在我們進入 2021 年下半年時。

  • In data center SSDS, revenue declined sequentially as customers in certain segments reduced their higher-than-average inventory levels. We are continuing to expand our data center NVMe SSD portfolio with internally developed controllers and have new product introductions planned in the coming quarters.

    在數據中心 SSDS 中,由於某些細分市場的客戶降低了高於平均水平的庫存水平,收入環比下降。我們將繼續使用內部開發的控制器擴展我們的數據中心 NVMe SSD 產品組合,併計劃在未來幾個季度推出新產品。

  • In PC, we continue to benefit from the remote work and learning trends that drove healthy notebook and Chromebook demand in fiscal Q2. Micron delivered record PC DRAM bit shipments despite pockets of NAND memory component shortages experienced in the PC OEM supply chain. We also began sampling 1-alpha based DDR4 products.

    在 PC 方面,我們繼續受益於第二季度推動健康筆記本和 Chromebook 需求的遠程工作和學習趨勢。儘管 PC OEM 供應鏈中出現 NAND 內存組件短缺的情況,美光仍交付了創紀錄的 PC DRAM 位出貨量。我們還開始採樣基於 1-alpha 的 DDR4 產品。

  • In client SSDs, we are on track to begin customer qualification of our next-generation client SSDs using 176-layer NAND in the fiscal second half of 2021. By the end of calendar 2021, we expect to cover multiple segments of the market, including consumer, value OEM and premium OEM with our 176-layer-based client portfolio. In graphics, revenue declined quarter-over-quarter from an exceptional fiscal first quarter, which benefited from the launch of new gaming consoles. Nevertheless, fiscal second quarter revenue grew significantly year-over-year. Micron has an excellent position in this market with a broad product portfolio and deep customer partnerships.

    在客戶端 SSD 方面,我們有望在 2021 財年下半年開始對使用 176 層 NAND 的下一代客戶端 SSD 進行客戶認證。到 2021 年年底,我們預計將覆蓋市場的多個領域,包括消費者、價值 OEM 和高級 OEM,以及我們基於 176 層的客戶組合。在圖形方面,由於新遊戲機的推出,第一財季表現出色,收入環比下降。儘管如此,第二財季收入同比顯著增長。美光憑藉廣泛的產品組合和深厚的客戶合作夥伴關係,在這個市場上擁有卓越的地位。

  • In mobile, revenue grew 21% sequentially, driven by strong execution, coupled with better than seasonal demand due to continuing recovery in smartphone volumes. We achieved record MCP revenue and nearly tripled our LP5 revenue sequentially. We have also begun sampling the industry's first 1-alpha LP DRAM and 176-layer NAND with mobile customers. Smartphone unit sales in China have been robust and 5G momentum is continuing.

    在移動領域,收入環比增長 21%,這得益於強勁的執行力,加上智能手機銷量持續復甦導致需求好於季節性。我們實現了創紀錄的 MCP 收入,並且我們的 LP5 收入環比增長了近兩倍。我們還開始為移動客戶提供業界首款 1-alpha LP DRAM 和 176 層 NAND 樣品。中國智能手機銷量強勁,5G 勢頭持續。

  • In auto, we delivered a second consecutive record revenue quarter as auto manufacturing recovers around the globe and as memory and storage content per vehicle continues to grow. We have more demand than we can supply, and we are working diligently with our customers to address their memory and storage needs. We are also advancing our product portfolio targeted for automotive applications. In F Q2, we completed qualification of our auto grade LP5 and began sampling the industry's first automotive LP5 that is hardware-evaluated to meet the most stringent automotive safety integrity level, FLD.

    在汽車領域,隨著全球汽車製造業的複蘇以及每輛車的內存和存儲內容持續增長,我們連續第二個季度實現了創紀錄的收入。我們的需求超出了我們的供應能力,我們正在努力與客戶合作,以滿足他們的內存和存儲需求。我們還在推進針對汽車應用的產品組合。在 F Q2 中,我們完成了汽車級 LP5 的認證,並開始對業界首款經過硬件評估以滿足最嚴格的汽車安全完整性等級 FLD 的汽車 LP5 進行採樣。

  • Turning to the market outlook. Calendar 2021 is shaping up to be a solid year and our overall outlook across DRAM and NAND has improved since our last earnings call, with broad strength across nearly all end markets. The pandemic has driven changes in our economy that we believe will not only benefit us this year, but also serve to accelerate the digital transformation of the economy and drive new opportunities for Micron. Recovery from the pandemic and pent-up demand are expected to drive strong demand growth in markets such as enterprise, cloud, desktop PCS, mobile, auto and industrial.

    轉向後市。 2021 年將成為穩健的一年,自上次財報電話會議以來,我們對 DRAM 和 NAND 的整體前景有所改善,幾乎所有終端市場都表現強勁。大流行推動了我們經濟的變化,我們相信這不僅將使我們今年受益,而且有助於加速經濟的數字化轉型,並為美光帶來新的機遇。預計從大流行和被壓抑的需求中復蘇將推動企業、雲、台式 PC、移動、汽車和工業等市場的強勁需求增長。

  • Data center demand is expected to be strong in calendar 2021, particularly in the second half of the calendar year due to a combination of factors. First, enterprise demand has started to come back as the economy recovers and is expected to further strengthen through the calendar year. Second, our opportunity at cloud service providers will continue to strengthen through calendar '21, driven by robust demand for their solutions and offerings, as well as secular growth in the AI and data-centric workloads. And finally, the introduction of new CPUs will support more memory channels and higher density modules, contributing to increases in server memory content across both cloud and enterprise.

    由於多種因素,預計 2021 年數據中心需求將強勁,尤其是在下半年。首先,隨著經濟復甦,企業需求開始回升,預計整個日曆年將進一步增強。其次,由於對其解決方案和產品的強勁需求,以及人工智能和以數據為中心的工作負載的長期增長,我們在雲服務提供商的機會將在 21 年繼續加強。最後,新 CPU 的引入將支持更多的內存通道和更高密度的模塊,從而有助於增加跨雲和企業的服務器內存內容。

  • Forecast for calendar 2021 PC unit sales have increased from 3 months ago and are expected to approach an average of 1 million units per day. There is robust demand in notebook PCs, especially Chromebooks. We also expect the desktop market to improve as workers gradually return to the office this year. Mobile unit sales are expected to show robust growth this year and we also expect to benefit from higher content in 5G phones, which are forecast to double in calendar 2021 to more than 500 million units. Auto unit sales are expected to grow significantly from last year, while secular memory and storage content growth trends remain strong as EVs proliferate. The strong demand across various end markets, combined with disruptions at certain logic and foundry semiconductor producers, has resulted in a shortage of these non-memory ICs for our customers and we believe memory demand would have been even greater without these shortages.

    對 2021 日曆年 PC 銷量的預測較 3 個月前有所增加,預計將接近平均每天 100 萬台。筆記本電腦需求強勁,尤其是 Chromebook。我們還預計,隨著今年員工逐漸重返辦公室,台式機市場將有所改善。預計今年移動設備銷量將呈現強勁增長,我們還預計將受益於 5G 手機中更高的內容,預計 5G 手機將在 2021 年翻一番,達到超過 5 億部。預計汽車銷量將比去年大幅增長,而隨著電動汽車的普及,內存和存儲內容的長期增長趨勢仍然強勁。各個終端市場的強勁需求,加上某些邏輯和代工半導體生產商的中斷,導致我們的客戶出現這些非內存 IC 的短缺,我們相信如果沒有這些短缺,內存需求會更大。

  • In DRAM, due to the stronger demand, we now expect calendar 2021 bit growth at 20%, above our prior forecast of high teens. This growth builds on calendar 2020 bit growth, which was in the lower 20s percent range. As a result of disciplined CapEx investments since the start of the pandemic, we expect industry DRAM supply to be below demand. As a result of the strong demand and limited supply, the DRAM market is currently facing a severe undersupply, which is causing DRAM prices to increase rapidly. We see the DRAM market tightening further through the year.

    在 DRAM 方面,由於需求強勁,我們現在預計 2021 日曆年位增長率為 20%,高於我們之前的預測。這種增長建立在 2020 年日曆位增長的基礎上,該增長處於較低的 20% 範圍內。由於自大流行開始以來嚴格的資本支出投資,我們預計行業 DRAM 供應將低於需求。由於需求旺盛,供應有限,DRAM市場目前面臨嚴重的供不應求,導致DRAM價格快速上漲。我們看到 DRAM 市場在今年進一步收緊。

  • In NAND, we now expect calendar 2021 bit growth to be in the low to mid-30% range, above our prior expectation of 30%. While we are seeing stabilization in near-term pricing, the elevated levels of industry CapEx are a cause for concern, and more CapEx cuts are needed to allow for healthy NAND industry profitability. Long term, we expect a DRAM bit demand growth CAGR of mid-to-high teens and a NAND bit demand growth CAGR of approximately 30%.

    在 NAND 中,我們現在預計 2021 日曆年的位增長將在 30% 的中低位範圍內,高於我們之前預期的 30%。雖然我們看到近期定價趨於穩定,但行業資本支出水平的升高令人擔憂,需要進一步削減資本支出以實現健康的 NAND 行業盈利能力。長期來看,我們預計 DRAM 位元需求復合年增長率為中高水平,NAND 位元需求復合年增長率約為 30%。

  • Turning to Micron supply. We target our long-term bit supply growth CAGR to be in line with the industry bit demand growth CAGR for both DRAM and NAND. However, there can be year-to-year variability caused by node transition timing. In both DRAM and NAND, we expect our calendar 2021 bit supply growth to be below the industry demand growth and we have used our inventory to add to our bit shipment growth this year. We are targeting fiscal 2021 CapEx to be approximately $9 billion to support our long-term goal of maintaining a stable share of industry bit supply.

    轉向美光供應。我們的目標是使我們的長期比特供應增長 CAGR 與 DRAM 和 NAND 的行業比特需求增長 CAGR 保持一致。但是,節點轉換時間可能會導致逐年變化。在 DRAM 和 NAND 中,我們預計 2021 年日曆的位供應增長將低於行業需求增長,我們已利用庫存增加了今年的位出貨量增長。我們的目標是 2021 財年資本支出約為 90 億美元,以支持我們保持穩定的行業鑽頭供應份額的長期目標。

  • I will now turn it over to Dave.

    我現在將把它交給戴夫。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Sanjay. Micron delivered very strong fiscal second quarter results with solid revenue growth, margin expansion and positive free cash flow. Market conditions improved throughout the quarter, and DRAM and NAND volumes as well as DRAM pricing were above our original expectations. Before discussing the details of our fiscal second quarter results, I want to discuss the financial impact of our decision to cease 3D XPoint development and manufacturing.

    謝謝,桑傑。美光憑藉穩健的收入增長、利潤率擴張和正的自由現金流實現了非常強勁的第二財季業績。整個季度市場狀況有所改善,DRAM 和 NAND 數量以及 DRAM 價格高於我們最初的預期。在討論我們第二財季業績的細節之前,我想討論一下我們決定停止 3D XPoint 開發和製造的財務影響。

  • As a result of this decision, we wrote off $49 million of 3D XPoint inventory in our F Q2 GAAP financial results. This inventory exceeded our needs to fill customer commitments. We remain committed to fulfilling our customer commitments to manufacture 3D XPoint wafers and currently expect modest revenues consistent with recent history until the end of calendar 2021. Our Lehigh fab was recategorized at the end of F Q2 as held-for-sale on our balance sheet. And beginning in F Q3, depreciation expense for the building and related equipment will stop. As a result, F Q3 gross margins will benefit from approximately $75 million of lower depreciation expense. The remaining costs will continue until the closing of the sale of our 3D XPoint fab in Lehigh, Utah.

    由於這一決定,我們在 F Q2 GAAP 財務業績中註銷了 4900 萬美元的 3D XPoint 庫存。該庫存超出了我們履行客戶承諾的需求。我們仍然致力於履行我們的客戶承諾,製造 3D XPoint 晶圓,目前預計到 2021 年年底之前的收入將與近期歷史一致。我們的 Lehigh 工廠在第二季度末被重新歸類為資產負債表上的待售.並且從第三季度開始,建築物和相關設備的折舊費用將停止。因此,F Q3 的毛利率將受益於約 7500 萬美元的折舊費用降低。剩餘成本將持續到我們在猶他州利哈伊的 3D XPoint 工廠的銷售結束。

  • As we discussed on our 3D XPoint update call, Micron will continue to maintain our current R&D investment level and redeploy the 3D XPoint R&D teams to work on technologies and products that align with our vision for memory and storage. We have already made progress on this front since our update call.

    正如我們在 3D XPoint 更新電話會議上所討論的那樣,美光將繼續保持我們目前的研發投資水平,並重新部署 3D XPoint 研發團隊,以開發符合我們的內存和存儲願景的技術和產品。自我們更新電話以來,我們已經在這方面取得了進展。

  • Now moving on to our results for the fiscal second quarter. Total F Q2 revenue was approximately $6.24 billion, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and up 30% year-over-year. We saw solid growth in most of our end markets, notably in the data center, mobile, PC, auto and industrial markets. F Q2 DRAM revenue was $4.4 billion, representing 71% of total revenue. DRAM revenue increased 10% sequentially and was up 44% year-over-year. Bit shipments grew in the high single-digit percentage range sequentially and ASPs were up slightly quarter-over-quarter. F Q2 NAND revenue was approximately $1.7 billion, representing 26% of total revenue. NAND revenue increased 5% sequentially and was up 9% year-over-year. Bit shipments increased in the high single-digit percentage range sequentially, while ASPs declined in the low single-digit percentage range quarter-over-quarter, showing an improvement in trajectory in the NAND pricing environment.

    現在繼續我們第二財季的業績。 F Q2 總收入約為 62.4 億美元,環比增長 8%,同比增長 30%。我們的大部分終端市場都實現了穩健增長,尤其是數據中心、移動、個人電腦、汽車和工業市場。 F Q2 DRAM 收入為 44 億美元,佔總收入的 71%。 DRAM 收入環比增長 10%,同比增長 44%。位出貨量環比增長在高個位數百分比範圍內,平均售價環比略有上升。 F Q2 NAND 收入約為 17 億美元,佔總收入的 26%。 NAND 收入環比增長 5%,同比增長 9%。位出貨量在高個位數百分比範圍內環比增長,而平均售價在低個位數百分比範圍內環比下降,表明 NAND 定價環境的軌蹟有所改善。

  • Now turning to our revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the Compute and Networking Business Unit was approximately $2.6 billion, up approximately 4% sequentially and up 34% year-over-year. Revenue growth was broad-based and driven by a combination of volume and pricing across data center, networking and client. Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit was $1.8 billion, up 21% sequentially and up 44% year-over-year. Mobile demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market continues to recover from the impact of the pandemic. Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $850 million, down approximately 7% from the prior quarter and down 2% year-over-year. Both SSD revenue and component revenue declined sequentially. We expect our storage revenue to increase as we introduce our 176-layer client SSDs into volume production. And finally, the Embedded Business Unit generated record revenue of $935 million, which was up 16% sequentially and 34% year-over-year, driven by strong industrial demand and record auto revenue as demand recovered from pandemic-related shutdowns.

    現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入趨勢。計算和網絡業務部門的收入約為 26 億美元,環比增長約 4%,同比增長 34%。收入增長基礎廣泛,並受到數據中心、網絡和客戶端的數量和定價共同推動。移動業務部門的收入為 18 億美元,環比增長 21%,同比增長 44%。隨著 5G 勢頭的增強以及移動市場繼續從大流行的影響中復蘇,移動需求依然強勁。存儲業務部門的收入為 8.5 億美元,比上一季度下降約 7%,同比下降 2%。 SSD收入和組件收入均環比下降。隨著我們將 176 層客戶端 SSD 投入批量生產,我們預計我們的存儲收入將會增加。最後,嵌入式業務部門創造了創紀錄的 9.35 億美元收入,環比增長 16%,同比增長 34%,這得益於強勁的工業需求和創紀錄的汽車收入,因為需求從與大流行相關的停工中恢復。

  • The consolidated gross margin for F Q2 was 32.9%, up 200 basis points from the prior quarter. DRAM price increases and cost declines drove the margin expansion in F Q2. For fiscal 2021, due to product mix changes, we now expect that our DRAM cost reductions will be somewhat higher than our prior expectations of mid-single digits, while our NAND cost reductions will be somewhat lower than our prior expectations of low to mid-teens.

    F Q2 的綜合毛利率為 32.9%,比上一季度上升 200 個基點。 DRAM 價格上漲和成本下降推動 F Q2 利潤率擴張。對於 2021 財年,由於產品組合的變化,我們現在預計我們的 DRAM 成本降低將略高於我們之前預期的中個位數,而我們的 NAND 成本降低將略低於我們之前預期的中低位青少年。

  • Operating expenses were $797 million in F Q2. Operating expenses were slightly lower than our expectation as prequal expenses were less than we had anticipated. We continue to expect operating expenses to increase in the second half of the fiscal year as we incur increased prequalification and labor expenses. As always, we remain committed to tightly managing expenses.

    第二季度的運營費用為 7.97 億美元。營業費用略低於我們的預期,因為預審費用低於我們的預期。由於資格預審和人工費用增加,我們繼續預計本財年下半年的運營費用將增加。與往常一樣,我們仍然致力於嚴格管理費用。

  • F Q2 operating income was $1.3 billion resulting in an operating margin of 20% compared to 17% in the prior quarter and 11% in the prior year's quarter. F Q2 EBITDA was $2.8 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 45% compared to 43% in the prior quarter and 40% in the prior year. Net interest expense improved to $24 million, and we expect it to be approximately $25 million in F Q3. Our F Q2 effective tax rate was 10.1%. We expect our tax rate to be in the high single digits for fiscal 2021.

    F Q2 營業收入為 13 億美元,營業利潤率為 20%,而上一季度為 17%,上一季度為 11%。 F Q2 EBITDA 為 28 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率為 45%,上一季度為 43%,上一年為 40%。淨利息支出提高到 2400 萬美元,我們預計第三季度約為 2500 萬美元。我們的 F Q2 有效稅率為 10.1%。我們預計我們的稅率將在 2021 財年達到高個位數。

  • Non-GAAP earnings per share in F Q2 were $0.98, up from $0.78 in F Q1 and up from $0.45 in the year ago quarter. EPS included $0.01 of nonoperating income related to gains from investments in our venture arm, Micron Ventures.

    第二季度非公認會計準則每股收益為 0.98 美元,高於第一季度的 0.78 美元,高於去年同期的 0.45 美元。每股收益包括 0.01 美元與我們的風險投資部門美光風險投資公司的投資收益相關的營業外收入。

  • Turning to cash flows and capital spending. We generated approximately $3.1 billion in cash from operations in F Q2, representing 49% of revenue. Net capital spending was approximately $2.9 billion during the quarter. Through the first 6 months of the fiscal year, we have deployed approximately $5.7 billion or slightly less than 2/3 of our expected annual capital spending. As we look ahead to the second half of the fiscal year, we expect capital spending to decline from the first half and continue to target approximately $9 billion in total for FY '21.

    轉向現金流和資本支出。我們在第二季度的運營中產生了大約 31 億美元的現金,佔收入的 49%。本季度的淨資本支出約為 29 億美元。在本財年的前 6 個月,我們已經部署了大約 57 億美元,略低於我們預期年度資本支出的 2/3。當我們展望本財年下半年時,我們預計資本支出將從上半年下降,並繼續將 21 財年的總額目標定為約 90 億美元。

  • As a result of our strong cash flow from operations of $3.1 billion, we generated positive free cash flow of $174 million despite the relatively high level of capital spending in the quarter. The increased cash flow was driven by strong revenue growth and efficient working capital management. We expect free cash flow to continue to improve in the second half of the fiscal year, driven by continued revenue growth, higher margins and lower capital spending. While we do not have share repurchases in F Q2, we will begin repurchasing shares in the third quarter and remain committed to returning at least 50% of annual free cash flow to shareholders in FY '21.

    由於我們來自運營的強勁現金流 31 億美元,儘管本季度的資本支出水平相對較高,我們仍產生了 1.74 億美元的正自由現金流。強勁的收入增長和高效的營運資金管理推動了現金流的增加。在收入持續增長、利潤率提高和資本支出減少的推動下,我們預計本財年下半年的自由現金流將繼續改善。雖然我們在第二季度沒有股票回購,但我們將在第三季度開始回購股票,並繼續致力於在 21 財年向股東返還至少 50% 的年度自由現金流。

  • Ending F Q2 inventory was $4.7 billion or 99 days, which reflects the inventory reporting changes we announced on last quarter's earnings call. We ended the quarter with total cash of $8.6 billion and total liquidity of approximately $11.1 billion. F Q2 ending total debt was $6.6 billion.

    第二季度末庫存為 47 億美元或 99 天,這反映了我們在上一季度財報電話會議上宣布的庫存報告變化。截至本季度末,我們的總現金為 86 億美元,總流動資金約為 111 億美元。 F Q2 期末總債務為 66 億美元。

  • Now turning to our outlook. DRAM prices have started to strengthen, and we expect the market to remain undersupplied this calendar year. In addition, NAND conditions are stabilizing. These improving market conditions, combined with our significantly stronger competitive position, set us up to generate stellar financial results in the second half of the fiscal and calendar year. While demand is strong across both the DRAM and NAND markets, our supply is now constrained as our inventories are very lean, particularly in DRAM. This restricts our ability to serve potential upside to demand.

    現在轉向我們的前景。 DRAM 價格已開始走強,我們預計本日曆年市場仍將供不應求。此外,NAND 狀況正在趨於穩定。這些不斷改善的市場條件,加上我們顯著增強的競爭地位,使我們能夠在本財年和日曆年的下半年產生出色的財務業績。雖然 DRAM 和 NAND 市場的需求都很強勁,但我們的供應現在受到限制,因為我們的庫存非常少,尤其是 DRAM。這限制了我們為需求提供潛在上行空間的能力。

  • On the cost side, we're facing additional headwinds due to foreign exchange rates and drought mitigation impacting our Taiwan operations. And as a result, our F Q3 DRAM costs could be sequentially up. We're also assuming that there is no impact to our production output due to the Taiwan drought.

    在成本方面,由於匯率和乾旱緩解影響了我們在台灣的業務,我們面臨著額外的不利因素。因此,我們的 F Q3 DRAM 成本可能會依次上升。我們還假設台灣乾旱對我們的產量沒有影響。

  • With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for F Q3 is as follows: we expect revenue to be $7.1 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin to be in the range of 41.5%, plus or minus 100 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $875 million, plus or minus $25 million. Finally, based on a share count of approximately 1.16 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $1.62, plus or minus $0.07.

    考慮到所有這些因素,我們對 F Q3 的非 GAAP 指導如下:我們預計收入為 71 億美元,上下浮動 2 億美元;毛利率在 41.5% 上下浮動 100 個基點;運營費用約為 8.75 億美元,上下浮動 2500 萬美元。最後,基於大約 11.6 億股完全稀釋後的股票,我們預計每股收益為 1.62 美元,上下浮動 0.07 美元。

  • In closing, as we reflect on our financial performance for FY '20, which was a trough year for Micron in this cycle and compare it to the prior trough in FY '16, I'm amazed by how far we have come. From FY '16 to FY '20, we substantially improved our EBITDA margin and our revenue grew by more than 70%. During this time, we delivered average gross margins of 40%, EBITDA margins of 50% and return on invested capital of 20%. We believe Micron's strong performance will continue across cycle and outperform the broader semiconductor industry.

    最後,當我們回顧 20 財年的財務業績時,這是美光在本週期中的低谷一年,並將其與 16 財年的前低谷進行比較,我對我們取得的成就感到驚訝。從 16 財年到 20 財年,我們大幅提高了 EBITDA 利潤率,我們的收入增長了 70% 以上。在此期間,我們實現了 40% 的平均毛利率、50% 的 EBITDA 利潤率和 20% 的投資資本回報率。我們相信美光的強勁表現將在整個週期中持續並超越更廣泛的半導體行業。

  • I'll now turn it back to Sanjay.

    我現在把它轉回給桑傑。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Dave. None of our achievements are possible without the great work of our world-class Micron team. We seek to recognize and reward team member performance and to do so fairly. Last week, we announced that we achieved comprehensive global pay equity in total employee compensation across base pay, bonuses and stock rewards for women and all underrepresented groups at Micron. Pay equity is a key pillar of our diversity, equality and inclusion strategy and core to creating an environment that attracts and retains the best talent. We continue to strengthen Micron's inclusive values-driven culture, which is an integral part of our broader transformation.

    謝謝你,戴夫。如果沒有我們世界級的美光團隊的出色工作,我們的任何成就都是不可能的。我們尋求認可和獎勵團隊成員的表現並公平地這樣做。上週,我們宣布,我們在員工薪酬總額中實現了全面的全球薪酬公平,涵蓋女性和美光所有代表性不足的群體的基本工資、獎金和股票獎勵。薪酬公平是我們多元化、平等和包容戰略的關鍵支柱,也是創造吸引和留住最優秀人才的環境的核心。我們繼續加強美光的包容性價值觀驅動文化,這是我們更廣泛轉型的一個組成部分。

  • We have come a long way since micron's founding as a start-up in Boise, Idaho, more than 40 years ago. And today, we are a global technology and product leader. As the United States' only remaining memory and storage manufacturer, we welcome the U.S. government's commitments to enhance America's long-term technology leadership and competitiveness in semiconductor manufacturing. This emphasis on our industry, which is reflected by governments globally, is the recognition of the critical role we play in today's digital economy.

    自 40 多年前美光作為一家初創公司在愛達荷州博伊西成立以來,我們已經走過了漫長的道路。今天,我們是全球技術和產品的領導者。作為美國僅存的內存和存儲製造商,我們歡迎美國政府承諾提高美國在半導體製造領域的長期技術領先地位和競爭力。全球政府都反映了對我們行業的重視,這是對我們在當今數字經濟中發揮的關鍵作用的認可。

  • Memory and storage represent approximately 30% of semiconductor industry revenue today, up from 10% in the early 2000s, and DRAM and NAND are growing in importance as a critical enabler of the most advanced technologies, driving economic growth and well-being. Micron's innovation over the decades has created a strong foundation, and we look forward to delivering value for all our stakeholders as the data economy accelerates.

    內存和存儲目前約佔半導體行業收入的 30%,高於 2000 年代初期的 10%,DRAM 和 NAND 作為最先進技術的關鍵推動者,推動經濟增長和福祉的重要性日益增加。美光數十年來的創新奠定了堅實的基礎,隨著數據經濟的加速發展,我們期待為所有利益相關者創造價值。

  • Thank you for joining and for your support of Micron. We will now move to Q&A.

    感謝您的加入和對美光的支持。我們現在將轉到問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Yes. Sanjay, I guess I was hoping you could compare and contrast what you're seeing this cycle versus previous cycles on the DRAM side. You're talking severe shortages yet we're really not seeing anyone upticking on CapEx. And if you ordered a tool today, you wouldn't get it until Q1 next year at the earliest. So I guess how are you thinking about things as well as what kind of changes are you seeing in terms of customer behavior? And how might that affect your business going forward?

    是的。桑傑,我想我希望你能比較和對比你在這個週期看到的與之前在 DRAM 方面看到的周期。你說的是嚴重短缺,但我們真的沒有看到任何人對資本支出有所增加。而且,如果您今天訂購了一個工具,那麼您最早要到明年第一季度才能拿到它。所以我猜你是如何看待事情的,以及你在客戶行為方面看到了什麼樣的變化?這將如何影響您的業務發展?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, C.J. And in terms of how we see the demand environment today versus what you referred to a few years ago, no question that at that time, the demand was driven with the increases in cloud, primarily. And today, the demand drivers are much more diverse. We are seeing shortages across all end markets, the demand is strong across all end markets. When you look at cloud, while cloud may have gone through some digestion over the course of last couple of quarters, when we look ahead, cloud demand is expected to be healthy, given the refresh with the new CPUs that are driving greater content in the servers. Similarly, mobile with 5G is driving much greater content, a first 5G phone, and on a year-over-year basis, the number of smartphones being sold are expected to increase on a double-digit basis as well. So strong driver of growth on mobile phones as well.

    謝謝你,C.J. 就我們今天的需求環境與你幾年前提到的情況而言,毫無疑問,當時的需求主要是隨著雲計算的增加而推動的。而今天,需求驅動因素更加多樣化。我們看到所有終端市場都出現短缺,所有終端市場的需求都很強勁。當您查看雲時,雖然雲可能在過去幾個季度中經歷了一些消化,但當我們展望未來時,預計雲需求將保持健康,因為新 CPU 的更新推動了更多內容服務器。同樣,帶有 5G 的移動設備正在推動更多的內容,這是第一款 5G 手機,並且預計銷售的智能手機數量也將以兩位數的速度增長。手機增長的強勁動力也是如此。

  • Automotive experience, of course, big decline last year, but on a year-over-year basis, mid double-digit range growth in automotive number of units sold. So automotive is also driving greater content increase as well as unit increases. So overall, the industry is experiencing strong demand virtually across all end-market segments. The CapEx has been disciplined, particularly in DRAM over the course of last couple of years and the environment is one of severe undersupply. So we are very excited about the opportunities ahead, and we absolutely believe that Micron, in this environment, in terms of demand and supply considerations and our own execution from a technology point of view, having industries leading edge, 1-alpha node industry's first as well as having industry's first 176-layer node, we are well positioned to drive our growth ahead and really well positioned to deliver stellar financial results over the course of next several quarters.

    汽車體驗,當然,去年大幅下降,但與去年同期相比,汽車銷量實現中位數兩位數增長。因此,汽車也在推動更大的內容增加和單位增加。因此,總體而言,該行業幾乎在所有終端市場領域都經歷著強勁的需求。資本支出一直受到約束,特別是在過去幾年中的 DRAM 領域,環境是嚴重供不應求的情況之一。所以我們對未來的機會感到非常興奮,我們絕對相信美光在這種環境下,無論從供需考慮以及我們自己從技術角度的執行,都具有行業領先優勢,1-alpha節點行業首創除了擁有業界第一個 176 層節點外,我們還可以很好地推動我們的增長,並在接下來的幾個季度中提供出色的財務業績。

  • And in terms of our customers, a question that you asked as well, I mean, customers across the board are seeing that memory in DRAM is in short supply. And that does affect some of the lead times that we expect from those customers. And by and large, those customers are supportive of those lead time considerations. And in this environment of extremely tight supply, the flexibility that is available for customers to switch between products is also becoming more limited. And this then does require customers to have longer lead times as well.

    就我們的客戶而言,您也提出了一個問題,我的意思是,所有客戶都看到 DRAM 中的內存供不應求。這確實會影響我們對這些客戶的預期交付時間。總的來說,這些客戶支持這些交貨時間考慮。而在這種供應極其緊張的環境下,客戶在產品之間切換的靈活性也變得越來越有限。這確實需要客戶有更長的交貨時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·皮策。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Yes. Congratulations on the strong results. Sanjay, just sticking on the CapEx side, you're characterizing the DRAM market as severe shortage, the NAND market is stabilizing, which is sort of an uptick of how you've been characterizing the market over the last couple of quarters. You're undergrowing industry bids, and you've got sort of an industry-leading cost position, especially in DRAM, with 1-alpha. And yet when I look at your full year CapEx versus what you've spent fiscal year-to-date, you're going to be down over 40% in the second half of the year. Why not get a little bit more aggressive on CapEx? What would you need to see? And at these levels, can you maintain your goal of being in line with industry bit share at these CapEx levels?

    是的。祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。 Sanjay,只是堅持資本支出方面,你將 DRAM 市場描述為嚴重短缺,NAND 市場正在穩定,這在某種程度上是你在過去幾個季度中對市場的描述。您的行業出價增長不足,並且您擁有行業領先的成本地位,尤其是在具有 1-alpha 的 DRAM 方面。然而,當我查看您的全年資本支出與本財年迄今為止的支出時,您將在今年下半年下降 40% 以上。為什麼不在資本支出上更激進一點呢?你需要看什麼?在這些水平上,您能否保持與這些資本支出水平的行業比特份額保持一致的目標?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So I think it is important to understand that we do remain disciplined with respect to CapEx. We want to make sure we manage it prudently. Our goal is that over longer-term in terms of supply growth CAGR to be aligned with industry demand growth CAGR. And we have made prudent decisions over the course of last few years in terms of CapEx investment. If you look at our fiscal year '21 CapEx of approximately $9 billion, this is really almost the highest CapEx that the company has spent in its history. And we are putting that into positioning us well for the future in terms of, of course, creating more clean room expansion, but also investing in leading edge technologies, which is what, as we look ahead, will drive our supply growth with our 1-alpha node in DRAM as well as with our 176-layer NAND node.

    因此,我認為重要的是要了解我們在資本支出方面確實保持自律。我們要確保謹慎地管理它。我們的目標是在供應增長 CAGR 方面長期與行業需求增長 CAGR 保持一致。在過去幾年中,我們在資本支出投資方面做出了謹慎的決定。如果您查看我們 21 財年大約 90 億美元的資本支出,這實際上幾乎是該公司歷史上花費的最高資本支出。我們正在為我們的未來做好定位,當然,創造更多的潔淨室擴張,但也投資於領先的技術,正如我們展望未來,這將推動我們的供應增長與我們的 1 DRAM 中的 -alpha 節點以及我們的 176 層 NAND 節點。

  • So even last year, while the industry was going through a trough period, Micron actually took the steps to invest for building for the future strength of the company. So all in all, we believe that our bit share in the industry would stay stable. And overall, it is a good environment for us to operate in, where our demand growth and our supply growth are on a CAGR basis aligned. Yes, from quarter-to-quarter, there can be variations. But most important thing is that long-term supply growth CAGR is managed in a disciplined fashion. And this is what is Micron's focus. And we believe we are well positioned. As I said before, well positioned to deliver stellar results over the course of the next several quarters.

    因此,即使在去年,當行業處於低谷期時,美光實際上也採取了投資措施,為公司未來的實力進行建設。所以總而言之,我們相信我們在行業中的比特份額將保持穩定。總體而言,這對我們來說是一個良好的運營環境,我們的需求增長和供應增長在復合年增長率的基礎上保持一致。是的,從一個季度到另一個季度,可能會有變化。但最重要的是,長期供應增長的複合年增長率受到嚴格管理。這就是美光的重點。我們相信我們處於有利地位。正如我之前所說,我們有能力在接下來的幾個季度中取得出色的成績。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I guess I also had a question on Capex. Dave, given what you're guiding in the back half of the year to, you're going to basically be exiting the year like annualizing roughly $6 billion in CapEx, something like that. So it requires a pretty big ramp just to get to that like 30% capital intensity number for next year that you've been kind of talking about. So is that still the right number to think about, that you can get to like low 30s capital intensity for fiscal '22? Because there's just not a lot of slots that you can get right now, even if you decide that you want to spend more money, those tool shipment slots aren't even really free until start of next year, so.

    我想我也有關於資本支出的問題。戴夫,鑑於你在今年下半年的指導,你將基本上退出今年,比如每年大約 60 億美元的資本支出,類似的東西。所以它需要一個相當大的坡度才能達到你一直在談論的明年 30% 的資本密集度數字。那麼,在 22 財年,您可以達到 30 年代的低資本密集度,這仍然是值得考慮的數字嗎?因為您現在可以獲得的插槽並不多,即使您決定要花更多的錢,這些工具運送插槽直到明年年初才真正免費,所以。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Right. Yes. I mean, keep in mind that CapEx can be a little lumpy. There are times where we need to make the investments ahead of our node transitions, and those sometimes can get more consolidated into a couple of quarters. And I think that's essentially what you're seeing in fiscal '21. We're not ready to talk to numbers about fiscal '22 yet. We haven't got -- finished fiscal '21, and we need to do that before we kind of formulate the plan. But I would tell you, over the long term, we feel very comfortable with our target CapEx spend of low 30s or 30% to 35% of our revenue in terms of CapEx. As Sanjay talked about, we take a very long-term view of CapEx and align that CapEx investment to make sure that supply and demand are in balance for us, and we'll continue to do -- to approach it that way.

    正確的。是的。我的意思是,請記住,資本支出可能有點不穩定。有時我們需要在節點轉換之前進行投資,而這些有時可以在幾個季度中得到更多的整合。我認為這基本上就是你在 21 財年看到的情況。我們還沒有準備好談論關於 22 財年的數字。我們還沒有 - 完成 21 財年,我們需要在製定計劃之前做到這一點。但我會告訴你,從長遠來看,我們對 30 多歲或 30% 至 35% 的資本支出目標資本支出感到非常滿意。正如桑傑所說,我們對資本支出持非常長期的看法,並調整資本支出投資,以確保我們的供需平衡,我們將繼續這樣做——以這種方式接近它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • If I look at the sort of quarter-on-quarter bit growth for DRAM that you've given the last 4 quarters, I get to 40%-plus type bit growth in February versus supply that you're sort of talking about, less than 20%, I think. So obviously, there's some deceleration implied there that you unwound inventory a little bit in February. I know you talked about that a little bit after the pronouncement, but maybe just give us a little bit of color on how you got to that bit growth and how that affects the next couple of quarters?

    如果我看一下你在過去 4 個季度給出的 DRAM 的季度環比位增長,我會在 2 月份得到 40% 以上的類型位增長與你所說的供應相比,更少超過20%,我想。所以很明顯,有一些減速暗示你在 2 月份稍微解除了庫存。我知道你在宣布之後談到了一點,但也許只是給我們一點顏色,說明你是如何實現這一點增長的,以及這對接下來的幾個季度有何影響?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So of course, if you look at last year, we had said that our supply growth was somewhat greater last year compared to the industry supply growth and the industry demand growth as well. So that positioned us well in terms of using up our inventory this year. And our supply growth this year is expected to be less than the industry demand growth. Industry demand growth, we have just raised our estimations to approximately 20% in calendar year '21, so our supply growth to be somewhat less than the industry. And of course, we have used in DRAM our inventory to supply -- to meet the growing customer requirements.

    所以當然,如果你看去年,我們曾經說過,與行業供應增長和行業需求增長相比,我們去年的供應增長要大一些。因此,這使我們在今年用完庫存方面處於有利地位。而我們今年的供應增長預計將低於行業需求增長。行業需求增長,我們剛剛將 21 日曆年的估計提高到約 20%,因此我們的供應增長將略低於行業。當然,我們在 DRAM 中使用了我們的庫存來供應——以滿足不斷增長的客戶需求。

  • As we look ahead, it will be -- our supply growth will be driven by our 1-alpha technology in DRAM. We will be ramping it over the course of next few quarters. It will be the workhorse of technology for us in terms of bit growth in fiscal '22 as well. And of course, as we bring out our products in this technology node, we have to get them qualified with our customers, and that's what we are focused on in terms of getting the ramp-up of this technology, 1-alpha technology, getting products qualified in time for it to position us to drive our supply bit growth to meet the ultimate customer demand growth requirements during the rest of the calendar year.

    展望未來,我們的供應增長將由我們在 DRAM 中的 1-alpha 技術推動。我們將在接下來的幾個季度中加大力度。就 22 財年的比特增長而言,它也將成為我們技術的主力軍。當然,當我們在這個技術節點上推出我們的產品時,我們必須讓它們在我們的客戶中獲得認可,這就是我們在提升這項技術、1-alpha 技術、獲得產品及時合格,使我們能夠推動我們的供應量增長,以滿足日曆年剩餘時間的最終客戶需求增長要求。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Okay. That makes sense. But am I right in thinking that there's an implied kind of decline in kind of sequential bits as you moved a lot of inventory in February, you don't have that inventory to move in May?

    好的。這就說得通了。但我是否正確地認為,隨著您在 2 月份轉移了大量庫存,您在 5 月份沒有要轉移的庫存,這種連續位隱含的下降是正確的?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So again, our inventory in DRAM is really very lean at this point. And going forward, the growth will come from our 1-alpha node. And I think what's again important is that there can be fluctuations from quarter-to-quarter. But long term, it is really about having a stable market share driven by technology transitions, which is our focus and which we have delivered successfully. Whether you look at our 1Z node in DRAM, that was the first 1Z node in the industry, now 1-alpha node is the first 1-alpha node in the industry as well. So technology transitions is what we are focused in terms of driving our long-term demand -- supply bit growth CAGR to be in line with the demand growth CAGR. And from quarter-to-quarter, depending upon the timing of the technology transitions, there can be fluctuations. Second half in terms of our year-over-year growth will be lower than the first half, yes.

    再說一次,我們在 DRAM 中的庫存在這一點上真的非常少。展望未來,增長將來自我們的 1-alpha 節點。而且我認為同樣重要的是,每個季度可能會出現波動。但從長遠來看,這實際上是在技術轉型的推動下擁有穩定的市場份額,這是我們的重點,並且我們已經成功交付。不管你看我們DRAM中的1Z節點,那是業界第一個1Z節點,現在1-alpha節點也是業界第一個1-alpha節點。因此,技術轉型是我們在推動長期需求方面的重點——供應位增長 CAGR 與需求增長 CAGR 保持一致。每個季度,根據技術轉換的時間,可能會出現波動。就我們的同比增長而言,下半年將低於上半年,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Chris Danely of Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • Just a bit of a longer-term question. So Sanjay/Dave, if things continue to be strong for, hopefully, several quarters like you guys are talking about, your cash pile's going to grow fairly substantially. So theoretically speaking, if we're sitting here a year, 1.5 years out, what are you thinking about as far as the usage of that cash going forward? And could we see a dividend potentially in the future?

    只是一個長期的問題。所以桑傑/戴夫,如果情況繼續強勁,希望像你們所說的幾個季度,你的現金儲備將會相當大地增長。所以從理論上講,如果我們坐在這裡一年,1.5 年後,你對未來現金的使用有什麼看法?我們能在未來看到潛在的紅利嗎?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Well, so our current, obviously, approach towards returning cash to shareholders is through the buyback. We mentioned in the second fiscal quarter, we didn't buy back stock, nor did we buy back stock in the first quarter. And that was really a function of the fact that cash flow was negative, and we were protecting our cash -- our net cash position. But as you say -- suggest and as we talked about, we do expect to have good cash flow in the back half of the fiscal year. And we do expect this business to generate free cash flow over time. So I think primarily, you can look to us to buy back stock. We're going to return at least 50% of our free cash flow in the form of buybacks. And we have, in the past, returned more than that. So potentially, we could do that in the future. There's a few things on the balance sheet as it relates to converts and debt that might use some of that cash as well. As far as the dividend, we haven't talked with the Board about that. Certainly a possibility, but I think we need to get through this year and discuss with the Board to see if that makes sense.

    是的。那麼,顯然,我們目前向股東返還現金的方法是通過回購。我們在第二財季提到,我們沒有回購股票,也沒有在第一季度回購股票。這實際上是現金流為負的事實,我們正在保護我們的現金——我們的淨現金頭寸。但正如你所說 - 建議和我們談到的那樣,我們確實希望在本財年的後半段擁有良好的現金流。我們確實希望這項業務隨著時間的推移產生自由現金流。所以我認為主要是,你可以指望我們回購股票。我們將以回購的形式返還至少 50% 的自由現金流。過去,我們的回報不止於此。因此,我們有可能在未來做到這一點。資產負債表上有一些與轉換和可能使用部分現金的債務有關的東西。至於股息,我們還沒有與董事會討論過。當然有可能,但我認為我們需要熬過今年並與董事會討論,看看這是否有意義。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Great. Dave, you're guiding gross margins up about 900 basis points sequentially for the May quarter. You talked about the exit from 3D XPoint driving lower depreciation. I think it was $75 million. You also talked about DRAM costs potentially being up due to FX and the drought in Taiwan. But outside of those 2 items, how are you thinking about costs in your NAND business, given the transition to second-gen replacement gate? And what are your thoughts on pricing for both DRAM and NAND? I think for DRAM, most of us are expecting 10%, 15% funded pricing increases on the NAND side, perhaps up low single digits. But how are you guys thinking about pricing? And how are you thinking about sustainability of pricing into the second half?

    偉大的。戴夫,你正在指導 5 月季度的毛利率環比增長約 900 個基點。您談到退出 3D XPoint 會降低折舊率。我認為是 7500 萬美元。您還談到了由於外彙和台灣的干旱,DRAM 成本可能會上漲。但除了這兩項之外,考慮到向第二代替代門的過渡,您如何考慮 NAND 業務的成本?您對 DRAM 和 NAND 的定價有何看法?我認為對於 DRAM,我們大多數人預計 NAND 方面的資金價格將上漲 10% 到 15%,可能會達到個位數的低位。但是你們是如何考慮定價的呢?您如何看待下半年定價的可持續性?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay. Thanks. So as you point out, we do get the $75 million tailwind in the third fiscal quarter due to the stoppage of the depreciation expense in Lehigh, that certainly will be beneficial and will help. The following quarter, it actually may be a little bit better than that. And so that will be a tailwind again for the fourth fiscal quarter. We talked about DRAM costs. We are affected by a few things. I mentioned the drought mitigation that is causing a little bit of a headwind on our costs on DRAM. We are -- because of the significant tightness in our supply chain, we are seeing some increased spending as it relates to the back end. So that's certainly a factor as well.

    好的。謝謝。因此,正如您所指出的,由於 Lehigh 的折舊費用停止,我們確實在第三財季獲得了 7500 萬美元的順風,這肯定是有益的並且會有所幫助。下個季度,它實際上可能會比這好一點。因此,這將再次成為第四財季的順風車。我們談到了 DRAM 成本。我們受到一些事情的影響。我提到了乾旱緩解措施,這對我們的 DRAM 成本造成了一點阻力。我們 - 由於我們的供應鏈非常緊張,我們看到與後端相關的支出有所增加。所以這當然也是一個因素。

  • And also, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, FX has been a bit of a headwind for us. In particular, it's Taiwan dollar, which has, had about a 5% appreciation this year. So those things are driving a little bit of a cost increase. I would say that's probably kind of a 1 or 2 quarter type effect. We're pretty excited about the 1-alpha node. It does have a great cost structure. It will be a workhorse node for us in fiscal '22. And so we would expect that to certainly help on the cost side on DRAM. On the NAND front, we are expecting costs to improve next quarter, aligned with our kind of annual cost-reduction assumptions, which suggests it will be in the low double digits year-over-year. So that will certainly be a little bit of a benefit on the gross margins as well.

    而且,正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,外匯對我們來說有點逆風。特別是台幣,今年升值了約5%。所以這些事情正在推動成本的一點點增加。我會說這可能是一種 1 或 2 季度類型的效果。我們對 1-alpha 節點感到非常興奮。它確實有一個很好的成本結構。在 22 財年,它將成為我們的主力節點。因此,我們希望這肯定有助於 DRAM 的成本方面。在 NAND 方面,我們預計下個季度的成本會有所改善,這與我們的年度成本降低假設一致,這表明它將同比處於兩位數的低位。因此,這肯定也會對毛利率有所幫助。

  • The rest of the gross margin guidance is obviously a function of assumptions around pricing and mix. And we avoid specifics around that. Suffice it to say that we feel very good about the pricing environment in DRAM, given the very tight supply situation we're in, in DRAM. And we're cautiously optimistic on the NAND front, given the stabilization we've seen more recently. But outside of that, I prefer not to comment more on the pricing side.

    其餘的毛利率指引顯然是圍繞定價和組合的假設的函數。我們避免了這方面的細節。可以說我們對 DRAM 的定價環境感覺非常好,因為我們在 DRAM 中處於非常緊張的供應情況。鑑於我們最近看到的穩定,我們對 NAND 方面持謹慎樂觀的態度。但除此之外,我不想在定價方面發表更多評論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Great job on the quarterly execution. Just given the DRAM tightness and what appears to be tightness in literally all of your end markets, is the team reallocating your production mix, let's say, from mobile towards more higher growth, higher-margin segments of the market like enterprise and cloud and gaming as you move towards the second half of the year? Especially on your view of strong cloud demand in the second half, improving enterprise trends, improving gaming trends in the second half of the year. Is there any reallocation on the product mix in terms of wafers that you guys are starting today?

    在季度執行方面做得很好。僅僅考慮到 DRAM 的緊張以及幾乎所有終端市場的緊張,團隊是否會重新分配你的生產組合,比如說,從移動到更高增長、更高利潤的市場部分,如企業、雲和遊戲當你走向下半年?特別是您對下半年強勁的雲需求的看法,改善企業趨勢,改善下半年的遊戲趨勢。你們今天開始的晶圓產品組合是否有任何重新分配?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So remember, the lead time, the cycle time of wafers in the fab tends to be in the 2- to 3-month range. And the wafers that you start today, by the time they are shipping to the customers, that time ends up being, including the time for assembly and test, ends up being 3 to 4 months later. So in this environment of really tightness across all end market segments, planning our wafer starts and dedicating them toward various end markets is really critically important. So this is the kind of activity that our team is always engaged in, in terms of working closely with customers. In understanding their demand mix, so not just total bit demand, but the bit mix of that demand between various product types because it's extremely important that we start our wafers in line with the expectation of our customers' demand a few months down the road, given again the cycle time considerations. So we are always managing this mix. But again, would point out that we are seeing supply shortages for us across all end market segments and across all nodes of DRAM as well.

    所以請記住,晶圓廠中晶圓的交貨時間和周期時間往往在 2 到 3 個月的範圍內。而你今天開始的晶圓,當它們運送給客戶時,包括組裝和測試時間在內的時間最終會在 3 到 4 個月後結束。因此,在所有終端細分市場都非常緊張的環境中,規劃我們的晶圓啟動並將它們專用於各種終端市場非常重要。因此,在與客戶密切合作方面,這是我們團隊一直從事的活動。在了解他們的需求組合時,不僅是總比特需求,還包括各種產品類型之間需求的比特組合,因為我們在未來幾個月按照客戶需求的預期開始生產晶圓非常重要,再次考慮週期時間。所以我們一直在管理這種組合。但再次指出,我們在所有終端細分市場以及 DRAM 的所有節點都看到了供應短缺。

  • And in this environment, we -- this is why, as I mentioned earlier, the lead time with customers is important, and it is an environment where flexibility, in terms of -- for customers to switch between one product type to another product type is more limited now. When we had more inventory in DRAM before, that was easier to manage.

    在這種環境下,我們——這就是為什麼,正如我之前提到的,與客戶的交貨時間很重要,而且這是一個靈活的環境,就客戶而言,可以在一種產品類型和另一種產品類型之間切換現在更有限了。當我們之前在 DRAM 中有更多庫存時,這更容易管理。

  • Now that the inventory is running at these lean levels, managing our supply mix, keeping it aligned with the customer mix, this is an ongoing activity here at Micron. And our team has done, I think, a great job, our supply chain team, our business units and our sales teams have done a great job working with our customers, understanding the market requirements and managing our business well.

    現在庫存以這些精益水平運行,管理我們的供應組合,使其與客戶組合保持一致,這是美光正在進行的一項活動。我認為我們的團隊做得很好,我們的供應鏈團隊、我們的業務部門和我們的銷售團隊在與客戶合作、了解市場需求和管理我們的業務方面做得很好。

  • And you see the result in terms of how well we have been able to bring inventory both in DRAM as well as in NAND. And of course, we are continuing to push for SSDs and multichip packages toward our higher density solutions as well because, again, all those considerations are important in this environment of tight supply and the tightness in terms of supply only increasing as we go through the year. So this is getting a lot of focus, Harlan.

    您會看到我們能夠在 DRAM 和 NAND 中帶來庫存的程度。當然,我們也在繼續推動 SSD 和多芯片封裝向我們的更高密度解決方案發展,因為在這種供應緊張的環境中,所有這些考慮因素都很重要,而且隨著我們經歷年。所以這引起了很多關注,哈倫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers of Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes. Also, congratulations on the strong execution. I wanted to ask you a little bit about the longer-term secular growth drivers in the server DRAM market. How do you see kind of content growth on a per server basis progressing? And I know you've talked about CXL. What's the thoughts on what CXL means to that equation and when that starts to matter?

    是的。另外,祝賀強大的執行力。我想問你一些關於服務器 DRAM 市場長期長期增長的驅動因素。您如何看待每台服務器的內容增長情況?我知道你已經談到了 CXL。對於 CXL 對這個等式意味著什麼以及什麼時候開始變得重要,你有什麼想法?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So in terms of server content, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, with the new compute platform architectures and the processors that are being introduced, they're all leading towards more cores, more channels and greater usage of higher density modules. And of course, the end market applications, when you look at those workloads are becoming more and more data-intensive, more AI-driven and ultimately driving for greater need for data and greater attach rate and greater content on a per server basis. So enterprise and cloud combined, really all -- when you look at CAGR in terms of demand growth, expect it to be a stronger CAGR in terms of big demand growth versus the average of the market. So this is definitely one of high-growth areas.

    因此,就服務器內容而言,正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,隨著新的計算平台架構和正在引入的處理器,它們都將導致更多的內核、更多的通道和更高密度模塊的更多使用。當然,終端市場應用程序,當您查看這些工作負載時,這些工作負載正變得越來越數據密集型、越來越受 AI 驅動,並最終推動對每台服務器的數據、更高附加率和更多內容的更大需求。因此,企業和雲實際上結合在一起——當你從需求增長的角度來看 CAGR 時,預計它在需求增長方面與市場平均水平相比將是一個更強的 CAGR。所以這絕對是高增長的領域之一。

  • And the average content growth continues to be very strong and at a strong clip in terms of gigabytes per CPU, when you look at it for DRAM, that is more like in -- on a CAGR basis, more like 20% average capacity growing on a per server basis, going from something like 200 gigabyte per CPU to growing to 300 gigabyte per CPU over the course of next 2 to 3 years. So DRAM has strong growth. And of course, same for SSD as well in terms of cost of ownership benefits that SSDs provide as well.

    並且平均內容增長繼續非常強勁,並且在每個 CPU 的千兆字節方面處於強勁的水平,當您查看 DRAM 時,這更像是 - 在 CAGR 的基礎上,更像是 20% 的平均容量增長以每台服務器為基礎,在接下來的 2 到 3 年內從每 CPU 200 GB 增長到每 CPU 300 GB。所以DRAM有強勁的增長。當然,就 SSD 提供的擁有成本優勢而言,SSD 也是如此。

  • And CXL is a new and emerging trend and this will create greater opportunity for differentiated solutions. And as we mentioned earlier, that these are opportunities that we believe we'll be very well positioned to capture with our emerging technology solutions that we are working on, which we believe will provide higher ROI as well as high-performance solutions for our customers. So CXL is again a development where Micron will be well positioned to really address the memory hierarchy needs of our customers as they evolve over the course of next few years.

    CXL 是一種新興趨勢,這將為差異化解決方案創造更大的機會。正如我們之前提到的,我們相信這些機會將通過我們正在開發的新興技術解決方案很好地抓住,我們相信這將為我們的客戶提供更高的投資回報率和高性能的解決方案.因此,隨著客戶在未來幾年的發展,CXL 再次成為美光能夠真正滿足客戶的內存層次需求的發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. Just a couple of follow-ups for me. I'm going to go back to inventory. Obviously, your commentary about the supply and demand environment suggests that prices are on the rise. But perhaps you want to lean your inventory or you want to continue to reduce because that inventory is now really fungible for new application that you're going to be shipping to in the second half. Is that the right way to think about this?

    是的。對我來說只是幾個後續行動。我要回去庫存了。顯然,您對供需環境的評論表明價格正在上漲。但也許您想精簡庫存,或者您想繼續減少庫存,因為該庫存現在真的可以替代您將在下半年發貨的新應用程序。這是思考這個問題的正確方法嗎?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • As it relates to our inventory, it's pretty lean at this point. I mean, all the inventory that you're seeing is either WIP or raw materials. There's a bit of finished goods, but it's just the amount of finish goods we need to stage to meet customer demand. So that -- I think we're not in a position to lean it out anymore. We are quite lean at this point.

    由於它與我們的庫存有關,因此在這一點上非常精簡。我的意思是,你看到的所有庫存要么是在製品,要么是原材料。有一點成品,但這只是我們需要分階段滿足客戶需求的成品數量。所以——我認為我們不能再把它傾斜了。在這一點上,我們很瘦。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. So there is no fungibility question. And then just moving on to NAND. And Sanjay, I see the same demand dynamics that are making you very bullish on DRAM, also apply to NAND. As a matter of fact, CXL could be a material catalyst for NAND. What is it with your underlying assumption that is still keeping your long-term NAND bit growth to 30%? There's a ton of data created, and some of these architectural changes could actually be good for storage, especially SSD. And I'm just curious why you're not as upbeat as end market data point would suggest?

    知道了。所以不存在可替代性問題。然後只是轉移到 NAND。 Sanjay,我看到讓你非常看好 DRAM 的同樣需求動態,也適用於 NAND。事實上,CXL 可以成為 NAND 的材料催化劑。你的基本假設是什麼讓你的長期 NAND 位增長保持在 30%?創建了大量數據,其中一些架構更改實際上可能有利於存儲,尤其是 SSD。我只是好奇為什麼你不像終端市場數據點所暗示的那樣樂觀?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So the long-term CAGR for DRAM, we have said, is approximately 30%. And of course, this is something that we constantly evaluate with -- working with our customers. And we do analyze this. And as and when needed, we update these. But at this point, our estimation for long-term DRAM CAGR is approximately 30%. I would like to point out that overall, when you look at the price elasticity trends in DRAM and certainly, when you look at post-pandemic growth and, as I mentioned earlier, the cost of ownership benefit for DRAM for NAND in the data center market and, of course, 5G driving greater content growth with respect to feature-rich -- increasingly feature-rich smartphones as well. So the demand trends for NAND are robust. And I think the important thing to really monitor is the supply to be managed in alignment with the demand expectations. And this is where, as we have said before, that industry CapEx can be managed better in terms of supply growth aligned with longer-term demand considerations.

    因此,我們已經說過,DRAM 的長期復合年增長率約為 30%。當然,這是我們不斷評估的東西——與我們的客戶合作。我們確實對此進行了分析。並且在需要時,我們會更新這些。但在這一點上,我們對長期 DRAM CAGR 的估計約為 30%。我想指出,總體而言,當您查看 DRAM 的價格彈性趨勢時,當然,當您查看大流行後的增長時,以及正如我之前提到的,數據中心 NAND 的 DRAM 的擁有成本優勢市場,當然,5G 在功能豐富的智能手機方面推動了更大的內容增長——功能越來越豐富的智能手機也是如此。因此,NAND 的需求趨勢強勁。我認為真正要監控的重要事情是要根據需求預期來管理供應。正如我們之前所說,這就是行業資本支出可以在與長期需求考慮相一致的供應增長方面得到更好管理的地方。

  • And I may have misspoken here. I may have said that approximately 30% in terms of the CAGR for demand growth, I may have said DRAM in that context. Of course, I was speaking about NAND. So I just want to correct myself that the 30% demand growth CAGR that I referred to is for NAND. Of course, as we have said, for DRAM, the long-term demand growth CAGR we see in high teens, mid-to-high teens.

    我可能在這裡說錯了。我可能會說,就需求增長的複合年增長率而言,大約 30%,我可能會在這種情況下說 DRAM。當然,我說的是NAND。所以我只想糾正自己,我提到的 30% 的需求增長 CAGR 是針對 NAND。當然,正如我們所說,對於 DRAM,我們在青少年中看到的長期需求增長 CAGR 是在青少年中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Tom O'Malley of Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Tom O'Malley。

  • Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

    Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

  • This one's more related to Dave. You talked about DRAM costs in the May quarter, potentially being up because of a couple of factors, but you also took the full year guide for costs, and so that they could be a bit better. Is that a comment on August costs accelerating and being a bit better there? Or can you just walk me through the dynamics of how you're seeing costs up in May and then the full year a little bit better in terms of overall costs?

    這與戴夫有關。您談到了 5 月季度的 DRAM 成本,可能由於幾個因素而上漲,但您也採用了全年的成本指南,因此它們可能會好一些。這是對 8 月份成本加速增長的評論嗎?或者你能告訴我你是如何看到 5 月份成本上升的動態,然後就整體成本而言,全年會好一些?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure. First of all, good question, Tom. So really, we saw much better cost in the second fiscal quarter for DRAM, and that really was the trigger to get the overall full year cost to be higher. Now that was more a function of mix than anything. But that is what drove kind of the upside on the cost side. Yes. Do I say higher? Yes. Sorry, I meant lower. Yes, costs to be lower. The -- I meant the higher number, that's what I meant. The May quarter -- or the August quarter then is -- we're not yet ready to provide some expectation. But I think the likelihood is that it wouldn't be -- it certainly shouldn't be a step-up in terms of sequential cost and likely will be slightly down.

    當然。首先,好問題,湯姆。所以真的,我們在第二財季看到 DRAM 的成本要好得多,這確實是促使全年整體成本更高的觸發因素。現在這更像是混合的功能。但這就是推動成本上漲的原因。是的。我說更高嗎?是的。對不起,我的意思是更低。是的,成本要低一些。 - 我的意思是更高的數字,這就是我的意思。五月季度——或者八月季度——我們還沒有準備好提供一些期望。但我認為它可能不會——就連續成本而言,它當然不應該是一個台階,並且可能會略微下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ambrish Srivastava of BMO.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

  • Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst

    Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst

  • Sanjay, I had a question on the shortages. And then how are you reacting to -- and you talked a little bit about the difficulty in planning and allocating wafers. So some of the semi companies, we're hearing companies -- not hearing, they've talked about changing the order cancellation policy from 45 days to 90, and some companies talking about absolutely no cancellations allowed. So how are -- are your long-term -- are your arrangements changing with some of the key customers as a result of this, so that it enables Micron to plan better? Can you just help us provide your perspective on how Micron is dealing with that?

    桑傑,我有一個關於短缺的問題。然後你是如何反應的——你談到了規劃和分配晶圓的困難。所以一些半導體公司,我們聽到的是公司——沒有聽到,他們談到將訂單取消政策從 45 天更改為 90 天,一些公司談論絕對不允許取消。那麼,您與一些主要客戶的安排是否因此而改變,從而使美光能夠更好地計劃?您能否幫助我們提供您對美光如何處理該問題的看法?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Certainly working very closely with our customers and customers across all our end markets. As I mentioned earlier, certainly lead times with our customers in terms of supply commitments are increasing. The flexibility, I think our customers, by and large, understand that the flexibility in terms of mixing of their bit demand is getting more limited as well, given that not only our supply is in very tight situation but overall, the industry -- the semiconductor industry, with respect to materials and capacity is also in a tight position. And our supply chain team has done an excellent job over the course of last year, in terms of really procuring materials and capacity early on so that even though we are running tight, we are able to meet our customer requirements. But yes, with less flexibility than before. And as Dave mentioned earlier, that some of this procurement of capacity does put some cost pressure in terms of our second half outlook as well. And so then, of course, for F Q3, that's baked into our guidance.

    當然,我們與所有終端市場的客戶和客戶密切合作。正如我之前提到的,在供應承諾方面,我們與客戶的交貨時間肯定在增加。靈活性,我認為我們的客戶,總的來說,理解他們的鑽頭需求混合方面的靈活性也越來越有限,因為不僅我們的供應處於非常緊張的情況,而且整個行業 -半導體行業,在材料和產能方面也處於緊張狀態。而且我們的供應鏈團隊在去年的過程中做得非常出色,在早期真正採購材料和產能方面,即使我們運行緊張,我們也能夠滿足客戶的要求。但是,是的,靈活性比以前低了。正如戴夫之前提到的,部分產能採購確實給我們的下半年前景帶來了一些成本壓力。因此,當然,對於 F Q3,這已納入我們的指導。

  • So our customers understand that this is an environment where we need to work closely with them. And then overall, our teams are doing a very good job in managing this in this environment of tight supply. And we see this close collaboration that is going to be needed as we go through this year and as we go into 2022 as well, because really, we are confident in 2022 demand as well. As the world recovers from this pandemic, technology -- the economies across the globe are expected to be in a strong growth spurt mode. And of course, technology demand will increase and destinations that are happening here in the U.S. first, rest of the globe coming in during the later part of the year. So the growth will be in '21 as well as '22, and we feel good about our outlook in terms of demand drivers even in '22 time frame. So this, working closely with customers to help manage the mix of their products and their supply requirements is going to be an important consideration, not just for next quarter or 2, I believe, well in 2022 time frame as well.

    所以我們的客戶明白這是一個我們需要與他們密切合作的環境。總體而言,我們的團隊在這種供應緊張的環境中管理得非常好。我們看到今年以及進入 2022 年將需要這種密切合作,因為實際上,我們對 2022 年的需求也充滿信心。隨著世界從這場大流行中復蘇,技術——全球經濟預計將處於強勁的增長模式。當然,技術需求將會增加,首先在美國發生的目的地將在今年下半年進入全球其他地區。因此,增長將在 21 年和 22 年出現,即使在 22 年的時間框架內,我們對需求驅動因素的前景也感到滿意。因此,與客戶密切合作以幫助管理他們的產品組合和他們的供應需求將是一個重要的考慮因素,而不僅僅是下一季度或第二季度,我相信在 2022 年的時間框架內也是如此。

  • And this is a great position for us to be in, in terms of particularly when you look at how we remain focused on our technology and product leadership execution. First, with 1-alpha node in DRAM as well as first with 176-layer NAND. And remaining focused on bringing those technology nodes into production and customer qualifications over the course of next several quarters.

    這對我們來說是一個很好的位置,特別是當你看到我們如何繼續專注於我們的技術和產品領導力執行時。首先,在 DRAM 中使用 1-alpha 節點,以及首先使用 176 層 NAND。並繼續專注於在接下來的幾個季度中將這些技術節點投入生產和客戶資格認證。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議結束了。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。