美光科技 (MU) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Latif, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Micron's Fourth Quarter 2021 Financial Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    下午好。我叫 Latif,今天我將成為您的會議主持人。此時,我想歡迎大家參加美光 2021 年第四季度財務發布電話會議。 (操作說明)

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

    現在我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人,投資者關係副總裁 Farhan Ahmad。您可以開始您的會議。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2021 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO; and Dave Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will be approximately 60 minutes in length. This call, including the audio and slides, is also being webcast from our Investor Relations website at investors.micron.com.

    謝謝,歡迎參加美光科技 2021 財年第四季度財務電話會議。今天與我通電話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra;和首席財務官 Dave Zinsner。今天的電話會議時長約為 60 分鐘。本次電話會議(包括音頻和幻燈片)也在我們的投資者關係網站 Investors.micron.com 上進行網絡廣播。

  • In addition, our website contains earnings press release and the prepared remarks filed a short while ago. Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures may be found on our website. As a reminder, a webcast replay will be available on our website later today. We encourage you to monitor our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending. You can follow us on Twitter @MicronTech.

    此外,我們的網站還包含收益新聞稿和不久前提交的準備好的評論。除非另有說明,否則今天對財務結果的討論將以非 GAAP 財務為基礎。可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。提醒一下,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供網絡廣播重播。我們鼓勵您在整個季度中關注我們的網站 micron.com,以獲取有關公司的最新信息,包括我們將參加的各種金融會議的信息。您可以在 Twitter @MicronTech 上關注我們。

  • As a reminder, the matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today. We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q, for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results.

    提醒一下,我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述存在重大差異。我們向您推薦我們向 SEC 提交的文件,特別是我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格,以討論可能影響我們未來業績的風險。

  • Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, level of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after today's date to conform these statements to actual results.

    儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的,但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。我們沒有義務在今天日期之後更新任何前瞻性陳述,以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

  • I will now turn the call over to Sanjay.

    我現在將把電話轉給桑傑。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. We delivered outstanding results in fiscal Q4, achieving robust profitability and the second highest quarterly revenue in Micron's history. Strong execution drove healthy results across segments, including record quarterly revenue in NAND as well as in our embedded business.

    謝謝你,法爾漢。大家下午好。我們在第四財季取得了出色的業績,實現了強勁的盈利能力和美光歷史上第二高的季度收入。強勁的執行力推動了各細分市場的健康業績,包括 NAND 和我們嵌入式業務的季度收入創紀錄。

  • Fiscal 2021 was a year of many records for Micron. We achieved our highest-ever mobile revenue driven by all-time high managed NAND revenue and MCP mix. Our embedded business had a tremendous record-breaking year, with auto and industrial businesses both at substantial new highs. And our crucial-branded consumer business and overall QLC mix in NAND all hit records in fiscal 2021.

    2021 財年是美光創造多項記錄的一年。受管理 NAND 收入和 MCP 組合的推動,我們實現了有史以來最高的移動收入。我們的嵌入式業務取得了巨大的破紀錄的一年,汽車和工業業務均創下新高。我們的關鍵品牌消費者業務和 NAND 的整體 QLC 組合在 2021 財年都創下了記錄。

  • Through the year, we successfully navigated multiple obstacles brought on by the pandemic and reached several key milestones. For the first time in Micron's history, we established technology leadership concurrently in both DRAM and NAND. Micron's 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND are the industry's most advanced nodes in high-volume production. And we further strengthened our product leadership by becoming first to introduce LP5X DRAM and uMCP5 managed NAND in mobile and the industry's first functional safety capable LP5 for automotive applications.

    一年來,我們成功克服了疫情帶來的多重障礙,實現了多個關鍵里程碑。在美光的歷史上,我們第一次同時在 DRAM 和 NAND 領域建立了技術領先地位。美光的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 層 NAND 是業界大批量生產中最先進的節點。我們率先在移動設備中引入 LP5X DRAM 和 uMCP5 管理型 NAND,以及業界首款用於汽車應用的具有功能安全功能的 LP5,從而進一步加強了我們的產品領先地位。

  • The secular demand for memory and storage, combined with Micron's focused execution and our rock-solid balance sheet, position us well to deliver strong financial performance and create significant shareholder value in fiscal 2022 and beyond. Demonstrating our confidence in our business trajectory, we initiated a quarterly dividend that we aim to grow over time.

    對內存和存儲的長期需求,加上美光專注的執行和我們堅如磐石的資產負債表,使我們能夠在 2022 財年及以後提供強勁的財務業績並創造可觀的股東價值。為了展示我們對業務軌蹟的信心,我們啟動了旨在隨著時間增長的季度股息。

  • Memory is at the leading edge of semiconductor manufacturing, and Micron has leadership in both DRAM and NAND technology. This quarter, we reached mature yields in our ramp of 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND, 20% to 30% faster than prior nodes and delivered performance and feature improvements that will help unleash customer innovation. We believe we are several quarters ahead of the industry in deployment of these process technologies.

    存儲器處於半導體製造的前沿,而美光在 DRAM 和 NAND 技術方面均處於領先地位。本季度,我們的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 層 NAND 的產量達到了成熟的產量,比之前的節點快 20% 到 30%,並提供了有助於釋放客戶創新的性能和功能改進。我們相信我們在這些工藝技術的部署方面領先於行業幾個季度。

  • Additionally, through deeper customer collaboration, we have further accelerated the time to market for value-added solutions built using these nodes. 1-alpha and 1z DRAM nodes combined now represent the majority of our DRAM bit production driven by strong growth of 1-alpha production. And by the end of the calendar year, 176-layer NAND will make up the majority of our NAND bit production.

    此外,通過更深入的客戶協作,我們進一步加快了使用這些節點構建的增值解決方案的上市時間。 1-alpha 和 1z DRAM 節點組合現在代表了我們 DRAM 位生產的大部分,這是由 1-alpha 生產的強勁增長驅動的。到日曆年年底,176 層 NAND 將占我們 NAND 位生產的大部分。

  • Looking beyond 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND, we are investing to sustain scaling in both technologies for the next decade. Adding momentum to our years of R&D in EUV, we recently took delivery of the industry's latest EUV system, NXE 3600, at our Boise headquarters where we operate one of the world's most advanced centers for semiconductor research and development. The delivery of this tool is an important milestone toward our previously disclosed plan of implementing EUV in high-volume manufacturing in the 2024 time frame. We expect that the integration of EUV with our existing multipatterning immersion lithography expertise will help us maintain DRAM technology leadership for many years to come.

    除了 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 層 NAND,我們正在投資以在未來十年內維持這兩種技術的規模化。為我們多年來在 EUV 領域的研發增添動力,我們最近在博伊西總部交付了業界最新的 EUV 系統 NXE 3600,我們在那裡運營著世界上最先進的半導體研發中心之一。該工具的交付是我們之前披露的在 2024 年時間框架內在大批量製造中實施 EUV 的計劃的一個重要里程碑。我們預計 EUV 與我們現有的多圖案浸沒式光刻專業知識的集成將幫助我們在未來多年保持 DRAM 技術領先地位。

  • In addition to being a technology leader and an innovation partner, we are uniquely positioned as a strategic supplier to our customers. Micron is the only U.S.-based memory company, and our strong global manufacturing network provides us with a diversified source of supply, which has become increasingly critical to ensure that we continue to deliver product reliably to our customers. The advantages of this unique position have been proven throughout the past 18 months as we have successfully navigated the challenges of COVID-19 across our global manufacturing network while maintaining continuity of supply to our customers.

    除了作為技術領導者和創新合作夥伴之外,我們還是客戶的戰略供應商的獨特定位。美光是唯一一家總部位於美國的內存公司,我們強大的全球製造網絡為我們提供了多元化的供應來源,這對於確保我們繼續向客戶可靠地交付產品變得越來越重要。這一獨特地位的優勢在過去 18 個月中得到了證明,因為我們在全球製造網絡中成功應對了 COVID-19 的挑戰,同時保持了對客戶的供應連續性。

  • Now let us review our end markets. The demand for memory and storage has evolved dramatically from the PC-centric era. Today, demand for memory and storage is driven from diversified end markets that extend from data center to the intelligent edge and to a growing diversity of user devices. As a result of growing memory and storage content per device, DRAM and NAND now account for an ever-increasing portion of the bill of materials for our customers. DRAM and NAND's TAM share of semiconductor industry has steadily grown over the last 2 decades from around 10% to approximately 30% today. The AI and 5G revolution is only in its infancy, and as these secular growth drivers gain further traction, we expect new data-intensive applications to continue to fuel significant increases in DRAM and NAND TAM.

    現在讓我們回顧一下我們的終端市場。從以 PC 為中心的時代,對內存和存儲的需求發生了巨大的變化。如今,從數據中心到智能邊緣以及日益多樣化的用戶設備,多樣化的終端市場推動了對內存和存儲的需求。由於每個設備的內存和存儲內容不斷增加,DRAM 和 NAND 現在在我們客戶的材料清單中所佔的比例不斷增加。在過去的 20 年中,DRAM 和 NAND 在半導體行業的 TAM 份額從大約 10% 穩步增長到今天的大約 30%。 AI 和 5G 革命才處於起步階段,隨著這些長期增長動力獲得進一步推動,我們預計新的數據密集型應用程序將繼續推動 DRAM 和 NAND TAM 的顯著增長。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, data center revenue grew sequentially and year-over-year, fueled by secular drivers in cloud demand and the resurgence of enterprise IT investment linked to improving economic growth. Data center has become the largest market for memory and storage driven by the rapid growth in cloud. With our broadening portfolio of differentiated products across memory and storage, we are in a strong position to drive strong growth and profitability in this important segment.

    在第四財季,數據中心收入環比和同比增長,受雲需求的長期驅動以及與經濟增長改善相關的企業 IT 投資復甦的推動。在雲的快速增長的推動下,數據中心已成為內存和存儲的最大市場。隨著我們在內存和存儲領域的差異化產品組合不斷擴大,我們處於有利地位,可以推動這一重要領域的強勁增長和盈利能力。

  • We have been engaged on DDR5 from initial specification development and are well placed to support customer transitions to DDR5-enabled platforms starting later this calendar year. We are also enhancing our NVMe SSD portfolio and will soon introduce PCIe Gen4 data center SSDs with Micron designed controllers and leveraging the full benefit of vertical integration. These SSDs will strengthen our market position over the course of the coming quarters and years in the fast-growing data center NVMe storage market.

    我們從最初的規範開發開始就一直致力於 DDR5,並且能夠很好地支持客戶從今年晚些時候開始過渡到支持 DDR5 的平台。我們還在增強我們的 NVMe SSD 產品組合,並將很快推出帶有 Micron 設計的控制器並充分利用垂直集成優勢的 PCIe Gen4 數據中心 SSD。在未來幾個季度和幾年中,這些 SSD 將加強我們在快速增長的數據中心 NVMe 存儲市場中的市場地位。

  • Work- and learn-from-anywhere trends are driving the second consecutive year of double-digit PC unit sales growth in calendar 2021. In the fiscal fourth quarter, PC DRAM revenue was up significantly year-over-year. We are making strong progress transitioning our PC DRAM to our 1-alpha node, which represented a meaningful portion of our FQ4 PC bit shipments. Client QLC SSD bit mix hit a new record and made up the majority of our client SSD bit shipments in FQ4. Our QLC leadership enhances our bit supply capability and product profitability. We also have continued momentum ramping 176-layer NAND products for the PC market, and we qualified our 176-layer NAND-based Gen4 NVMe client SSDs with several PC OEMs during the quarter.

    在任何地方工作和學習的趨勢正在推動 2021 日曆連續第二年實現兩位數的 PC 單位銷售增長。在第四財季,PC DRAM 收入同比顯著增長。我們正在將我們的 PC DRAM 過渡到我們的 1-alpha 節點,這代表了我們 FQ4 PC 位出貨量的重要部分。客戶端 QLC SSD 位組合創下新紀錄,占我們第四季度客戶端 SSD 位出貨量的大部分。我們在 QLC 的領導地位提高了我們的鑽頭供應能力和產品盈利能力。我們還繼續推動面向 PC 市場的 176 層 NAND 產品,並且我們在本季度與幾家 PC OEM 驗證了我們的基於 176 層 NAND 的 Gen4 NVMe 客戶端 SSD。

  • In graphics, revenue increased sequentially and year-over-year driven by a continuation of last quarter's strong next-generation game console and graphics card shipments. Micron holds an excellent position in the fast-growing graphics market with a broad product portfolio featuring our proprietary GDDR6X product line and deep partnerships with leading GPU suppliers.

    在圖形方面,由於上一季度下一代遊戲機和顯卡出貨量強勁,收入連續和同比增長。美光擁有廣泛的產品組合,包括我們專有的 GDDR6X 產品線,以及與領先 GPU 供應商的深入合作,在快速增長的圖形市場中佔據卓越地位。

  • FQ4 mobile revenue increased more than 25% year-over-year driven by continued unit sales and content growth. We expect overall smartphone unit sales to grow this year with sales of over 500 million 5G mobile phones forecasted. These content-rich 5G phones featured more than 50% higher DRAM and double the NAND content than 4G phones. We expect 5G and AI to drive new innovation in applications such as AI-optimized video capture and editing that will fuel DRAM and NAND content growth for years to come.

    在持續的單位銷售額和內容增長的推動下,第四季度移動收入同比增長超過 25%。我們預計今年智能手機的整體銷量將增長,預計 5G 手機的銷量將超過 5 億部。這些內容豐富的 5G 手機具有比 4G 手機高 50% 以上的 DRAM 和兩倍的 NAND 內容。我們預計 5G 和 AI 將推動應用程序的新創新,例如 AI 優化的視頻捕獲和編輯,這將在未來幾年推動 DRAM 和 NAND 內容的增長。

  • Our 1-alpha LP4 16-gigabit design is now fully qualified and ramping at multiple OEMs, while our 176-layer NAND achieved its first UFS 3.1 qualifications at 2 OEMs. These wins demonstrate Micron's leadership in the mobile market and our continued strength in managed NAND products where MCP sales surpassed $1 billion for the third straight quarter.

    我們的 1-alpha LP4 16-gigabit 設計現已完全通過多個 OEM 的認證並逐步增加,而我們的 176 層 NAND 在 2 個 OEM 中獲得了首個 UFS 3.1 認證。這些勝利證明了美光在移動市場的領導地位以及我們在管理 NAND 產品方面的持續實力,其中 MCP 銷售額連續第三個季度超過 10 億美元。

  • We are continuing to see strong demand in our edge markets, which includes automotive and industrial IoT. We expect the automotive and industrial markets to be the fastest-growing memory and storage markets over the next decade. As the #1 player in these markets, Micron is exceptionally well positioned to benefit from these secular growth trends. Our automotive business delivered a fourth consecutive record quarter driven by continued recovery in auto manufacturing and the growth of memory and storage content driven by in-vehicle infotainment and driver assistance applications.

    我們繼續看到邊緣市場的強勁需求,包括汽車和工業物聯網。我們預計汽車和工業市場將成為未來十年增長最快的內存和存儲市場。作為這些市場中排名第一的參與者,美光非常有能力從這些長期增長趨勢中受益。我們的汽車業務連續第四個季度實現創紀錄的季度業績,這得益於汽車製造業的持續復甦以及車載信息娛樂和駕駛輔助應用程序推動的內存和存儲內容的增長。

  • Industrial IoT revenues also set records in the fiscal fourth quarter, benefiting from the continued growth of applications such as point-of-sales devices, factory automation and surveillance. We expect industrial demand trends to accelerate further as 5G speeds the adoption of data-intensive applications powered by intelligent edge infrastructure. We are also seeing an acceleration in our consumer IoT business driven by rapid growth in devices such as VR headsets, smart exercise equipment and smart speakers.

    受益於銷售點設備、工廠自動化和監控等應用的持續增長,工業物聯網收入在第四財季也創下紀錄。我們預計,隨著 5G 加快採用智能邊緣基礎設施支持的數據密集型應用程序,工業需求趨勢將進一步加速。在 VR 耳機、智能運動設備和智能揚聲器等設備的快速增長的推動下,我們的消費者物聯網業務也在加速增長。

  • Turning to market outlook. Calendar 2021 is shaping up to be a strong year. We expect calendar 2021 industry DRAM bit demand growth to be in the low 20% range and industry NAND bit demand growth to be in the high 30% range.

    轉向市場前景。 2021 年的日曆將成為強勁的一年。我們預計 2021 年行業 DRAM 位需求增長將在 20% 的低範圍內,而行業 NAND 位需求增長將在 30% 的高範圍內。

  • Overall, our preliminary view is that calendar 2022 industry bit demand growth will be consistent with long-term industry bit demand growth CAGRs in the mid to high teens for DRAM and approximately 30% for NAND. We anticipate underlying demand in calendar 2022 to be led by increasing data center server deployments, 5G mobile shipments and continued strength in automotive and industrial markets.

    總體而言,我們的初步觀點是,2022 日曆年行業位需求增長將與長期行業位需求增長保持一致,DRAM 的年復合增長率為 15%,NAND 約為 30%。我們預計 2022 年的潛在需求將受到數據中心服務器部署增加、5G 移動出貨量以及汽車和工業市場持續走強的推動。

  • Additionally, non-memory supply shortages that are constraining customer bills across various end market segments and that are pushing out some demand should ease throughout 2022, supporting demand growth during the year. Given prudent industry CapEx and very lean supplier inventories, we expect healthy industry supply-demand balance and robust profitability for both DRAM and NAND in the year.

    此外,限制各個終端細分市場客戶賬單並推動部分需求的非內存供應短缺應該會在整個 2022 年得到緩解,從而支持年內的需求增長。鑑於謹慎的行業資本支出和非常精簡的供應商庫存,我們預計今年 DRAM 和 NAND 的行業供需平衡健康且盈利能力強勁。

  • In the near term, our FQ1 bit shipments will decline modestly in both DRAM and NAND from very strong levels in FQ4. Some PC customers are adjusting their memory and storage purchases due to shortages of non-memory components that are needed to complete PC builds. We expect this adjustment at our PC customers to be largely resolved in the coming months. We are also seeing constraints within our supply chain for certain IC components, which will somewhat limit our bit shipments in the near term.

    在短期內,我們的 DRAM 和 NAND 的 FQ1 位出貨量將從 FQ4 的非常強勁的水平小幅下降。由於完成 PC 構建所需的非內存組件短缺,一些 PC 客戶正在調整他們的內存和存儲采購。我們預計 PC 客戶的這種調整將在未來幾個月內得到基本解決。我們還看到某些 IC 組件的供應鏈存在限制,這將在短期內限制我們的位出貨量。

  • Bit shipment growth will resume in the second half of the fiscal year, and we are planning to deliver record revenue with solid profitability in fiscal 2022. Our calendar year '22 bit shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will be in line with the industry. However, due to the strong shipments in fiscal year '21 and our below normal current inventory level, for fiscal year '22, our bit shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will somewhat lag the long-term CAGRs.

    位出貨量增長將在本財年下半年恢復,我們計劃在 2022 財年實現創紀錄的收入和穩健的盈利能力。我們日曆年 DRAM 和 NAND 的 22 位出貨量增長將與行業保持一致。然而,由於 21 財年的強勁出貨量以及我們目前低於正常的庫存水平,在 22 財年,我們的 DRAM 和 NAND 位出貨量增長將在一定程度上落後於長期復合年增長率。

  • In fiscal year '22, the continued ramp of 1-alpha and 176-layer NAND should provide us with good front-end cost reductions. Our efforts to increase supply chain resilience and provide business continuity to our customers will cause headwinds to our assembly and packaging costs, consistent with the trend in the overall industry. Overall, we expect annual cost per bit reductions to be competitive with the industry in fiscal year '22 and over the long term.

    在 22 財年,1-alpha 和 176 層 NAND 的持續增長應該會為我們提供良好的前端成本降低。我們努力提高供應鏈彈性並為客戶提供業務連續性,這將對我們的組裝和包裝成本造成不利影響,這與整個行業的趨勢一致。總體而言,我們預計在 22 財年及長期內,每年每比特成本的降低將與行業競爭。

  • Turning to capital expenditures. We expect fiscal year '22 CapEx in the range of $11 billion to $12 billion. The year-on-year increase in CapEx is driven by our continued 176-layer NAND transition, pilot line enablement for next-generation NAND and DRAM and continued infrastructure and prepayments to support the introduction of EUV. Fiscal year '22 DRAM equipment CapEx for manufacturing will decline from fiscal year '21 as we benefit from the capital efficiency of our mature 1-alpha node.

    轉向資本支出。我們預計 22 財年的資本支出在 110 億至 120 億美元之間。資本支出的同比增長是由於我們持續的 176 層 NAND 過渡、下一代 NAND 和 DRAM 的試生產線啟用以及持續的基礎設施和預付款以支持 EUV 的引入。 '22 財年用於製造的 DRAM 設備資本支出將從 '21 財年開始下降,因為我們受益於我們成熟的 1-alpha 節點的資本效率。

  • For fiscal year '22, our bit supply growth will be achieved through no transitions alone as we are a few years away from needing wafer start additions to keep up with the industry demand. We also expect to increase fiscal year '22 R&D investment by approximately 15% from fiscal year '21 to deliver bold product and technology innovations designed to fuel the data economy as well as to expand our portfolio to capitalize on opportunities such as high-bandwidth memory and CXL solutions.

    對於 22 財年,我們的位供應增長將通過不單獨的過渡實現,因為我們距離需要增加晶圓以跟上行業需求還有幾年的時間。我們還希望將 '22 財年的研發投資比 '21 財年增加約 15%,以提供旨在推動數據經濟的大膽產品和技術創新,並擴大我們的產品組合以利用高帶寬內存等機會和 CXL 解決方案。

  • Our leadership portfolio, product quality, supply chain agility and deep customer relationships make us a preferred partner in many of our markets, and we are confident in our ability to continue to create long-term sustained profitability and returns built on that leadership.

    我們的領導力組合、產品質量、供應鏈敏捷性和深厚的客戶關係使我們成為許多市場的首選合作夥伴,我們有信心在這種領導力的基礎上繼續創造長期持續的盈利能力和回報。

  • I will now turn it over to Dave.

    我現在把它交給戴夫。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Sanjay. Micron delivered excellent FQ4 results highlighted by our second highest quarterly revenues, strong growth in operating margins and our substantial positive free cash flow. Total FQ4 revenue was approximately $8.3 billion, up 11% quarter-over-quarter and up 37% year-over-year.

    謝謝,桑傑。美光第四季度業績出色,季度收入第二高,營業利潤率增長強勁,自由現金流為正數。第四季度總收入約為 83 億美元,環比增長 11%,同比增長 37%。

  • As a reminder, FQ4 of last year was a 14-week quarter and impacts our year-over-year comparisons. FQ4 revenue growth was broad-based with solid demand and price increases in both DRAM and NAND. Our robust growth in FQ4 contributed to strong performance in FY '21 with revenue of $27.7 billion, which was up 29% from the prior fiscal year.

    提醒一下,去年的 FQ4 是一個為期 14 週的季度,影響了我們的同比比較。由於 DRAM 和 NAND 需求強勁且價格上漲,第四季度收入增長基礎廣泛。我們在第四季度的強勁增長促成了 21 財年的強勁表現,收入為 277 億美元,比上一財年增長 29%。

  • FQ4 DRAM revenue was $6.1 billion, representing 74% of total revenue. DRAM revenue increased 12% sequentially and was up 39% year-over-year. Bit shipments increased in the lower single-digit percentage sequentially, and ASPs increased in the high single-digit percent range quarter-over-quarter. For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $20 billion, representing 72% of total fiscal year revenue.

    FQ4 DRAM 收入為 61 億美元,佔總收入的 74%。 DRAM 收入環比增長 12%,同比增長 39%。位出貨量環比以較低的個位數百分比增長,而 ASP 則以較高的個位數百分比環比增長。在本財年,DRAM 收入同比增長 38% 至 200 億美元,佔財年總收入的 72%。

  • FQ4 NAND revenue was approximately $2 billion, an all-time high and representing 24% of the total revenue. NAND revenue increased 9% sequentially and was up 29% year-over-year. Bit shipments increased by low single-digit percentage sequentially, while ASPs increased in the mid-single-digit percent range quarter-over-quarter. For the fiscal year, we achieved a new company record for NAND revenue of $7 billion, an increase of 14% year-over-year. NAND revenue represented 25% of our total fiscal year revenue.

    FQ4 NAND 收入約為 20 億美元,創歷史新高,佔總收入的 24%。 NAND 收入環比增長 9%,同比增長 29%。位出貨量環比增長低個位數百分比,而 ASP 環比增長在中等個位數百分比範圍內。在本財年,我們創造了 70 億美元的 NAND 收入新的公司記錄,同比增長 14%。 NAND 收入占我們財年總收入的 25%。

  • Now turning to our FQ4 revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the Compute and Networking Business Unit was $3.8 billion, up 15% sequentially and up 26% year-over-year. Growth was led by the data center and graphics markets. Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit was $1.9 billion, down 5% sequentially and up 29% year-over-year. Mobile demand remained healthy in the quarter with continued momentum from the rollout of 5G. MBU revenue for fiscal '21 exceeded $7 billion and set a new record.

    現在轉向按業務部門劃分的 FQ4 收入趨勢。計算和網絡業務部門的收入為 38 億美元,環比增長 15%,同比增長 26%。數據中心和圖形市場引領增長。移動業務部門的收入為 19 億美元,環比下降 5%,同比增長 29%。由於 5G 的推出,移動需求在本季度保持健康。 '21 財年的 MBU 收入超過 70 億美元並創下新紀錄。

  • Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $1.2 billion, up 19% from the prior quarter and up 32% year-over-year. Data center SSDs had strong growth in the quarter driven by enterprise and cloud strength. QLC shipments set a new record in the fiscal year in terms of percentage of our NAND shipments.

    存儲業務部門的收入為 12 億美元,比上一季度增長 19%,同比增長 32%。在企業和雲實力的推動下,數據中心 SSD 在本季度實現了強勁增長。 QLC 出貨量在我們的 NAND 出貨量百分比方面創下了本財年的新紀錄。

  • Finally, the Embedded Business Unit generated record revenue of $1.4 billion, which was up 23% sequentially and more than doubled year-over-year. We continue to experience strong demand across the automotive and industrial markets. For the fiscal year, EBU revenue easily exceeded $4 billion, setting a new revenue record.

    最後,嵌入式業務部門創造了創紀錄的 14 億美元收入,環比增長 23%,同比增長一倍多。我們繼續感受到汽車和工業市場的強勁需求。本財年,EBU 收入輕鬆超過 40 億美元,創下新的收入記錄。

  • The consolidated gross margin for FQ4 was 47.9%, up 500 basis points from the prior quarter. Pricing increases across DRAM and NAND as well as strong execution in our ongoing product portfolio transformation drove margin expansion in the quarter. Operating expenses in FQ4 were $891 million on the lower end of the range we provided in last quarter's earnings call. FQ4 operating income was $3.1 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 37%, up from 32% in FQ3 and up from 21% in the prior year.

    FQ4 的綜合毛利率為 47.9%,比上一季度增長 500 個基點。 DRAM 和 NAND 的定價上漲以及我們正在進行的產品組合轉型的強勁執行推動了本季度的利潤率擴張。第四季度的運營費用為 8.91 億美元,低於我們在上季度財報電話會議中提供的範圍的下限。 FQ4 營業收入為 31 億美元,營業利潤率為 37%,高於 FQ3 的 32% 和去年的 21%。

  • FQ4 EBITDA was $4.7 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 57.1% compared to 53.3% in the prior quarter and 47.4% in the prior year. For the fiscal year, total EBITDA was $14 billion, up from $9 billion in the prior fiscal year and represented 50.4% of revenues.

    FQ4 EBITDA 為 47 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率為 57.1%,而上一季度為 53.3%,上年為 47.4%。本財年的 EBITDA 總額為 140 億美元,高於上一財年的 90 億美元,佔收入的 50.4%。

  • Non-GAAP earnings per share in FQ4 were $2.42, up from $1.88 in FQ3 and up from $1.08 in the year ago quarter. EPS included approximately $0.02 of gains from investments in our venture arm, Micron Ventures. For the fiscal year, total EPS was $6.06, up more than 100% from the $2.83 achieved in the prior fiscal year.

    FQ4 的非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.42 美元,高於 FQ3 的 1.88 美元和去年同期的 1.08 美元。 EPS 包括對我們的風險投資部門 Micron Ventures 的投資收益約 0.02 美元。本財年,每股收益總額為 6.06 美元,較上一財年的 2.83 美元增長 100% 以上。

  • Turning to cash flows and capital spending. We generated $3.9 billion in cash from operations in FQ4, representing 47% of revenue. For the fiscal year, cash from operations totaled $12.5 billion, up from $8.3 billion in the prior fiscal year. Net capital spending was $2 billion during the quarter and $9.7 billion in fiscal '21. We generated positive free cash flow of $1.9 billion in FQ4 and over $2.8 billion for the fiscal year. The increased cash flow was driven by strong revenue growth, increased profitability and efficient working capital management.

    轉向現金流和資本支出。我們在第四季度的運營中產生了 39 億美元的現金,佔收入的 47%。本財年,運營現金總額為 125 億美元,高於上一財年的 83 億美元。本季度淨資本支出為 20 億美元,21 財年為 97 億美元。我們在第四季度產生了 19 億美元的正自由現金流,在本財年產生了超過 28 億美元的自由現金流。現金流量的增加是由強勁的收入增長、盈利能力的提高和高效的營運資金管理推動的。

  • As Sanjay mentioned, we expect our fiscal '22 capital spending to be between $11 billion and $12 billion. Like fiscal '21, we expect our capital spending to be weighted more to the first half of the fiscal year, which will constrain free cash flow in FQ1 and FQ2. We do expect to generate healthy free cash flow in fiscal '22 but weighted toward the back half of the year. We also expect to close our Lehi fab sale within FQ1, and we will receive approximately $900 million in proceeds from the sale.

    正如 Sanjay 所提到的,我們預計 22 財年的資本支出將在 110 億美元至 120 億美元之間。與 21 財年一樣,我們預計我們的資本支出將在本財年上半年獲得更多權重,這將限制 FQ1 和 FQ2 的自由現金流。我們確實希望在 22 財年產生健康的自由現金流,但在今年下半年加權。我們還希望在第一季度完成我們的 Lehi 晶圓廠銷售,我們將從銷售中獲得大約 9 億美元的收益。

  • We completed share repurchases of $1.1 billion or approximately 13.9 million shares in FQ4. For the fiscal year, we repurchased $1.2 billion or approximately 15.6 million shares.

    我們在第四季度完成了 11 億美元或約 1390 萬股的股票回購。在本財年,我們回購了 12 億美元或約 1560 萬股股票。

  • From fiscal '17 to fiscal '21, we generated over $20 billion of free cash flow. During this period, we used approximately $5 billion of that cash flow to retire debt and $7 billion towards buying back stock and eliminating the dilution from convertible debt, reducing our share count by 148 million shares. We also improved our total cash and investment position by $5.5 billion. We expect that we will continue to generate strong free cash flow in the future. And as we discussed on our capital return strategy call in early August, we are committed to returning more than 50% of cross-cycle free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of buybacks and a quarterly dividend that we expect we can grow over time.

    從 17 財年到 21 財年,我們產生了超過 200 億美元的自由現金流。在此期間,我們將大約 50 億美元的現金流用於償還債務,並用 70 億美元用於回購股票和消除可轉換債務的稀釋,從而使我們的股票數量減少了 1.48 億股。我們還將總現金和投資頭寸提高了 55 億美元。我們預計未來我們將繼續產生強勁的自由現金流。正如我們在 8 月初的資本回報戰略電話會議上所討論的那樣,我們致力於通過回購和季度股息相結合的方式,將超過 50% 的跨週期自由現金流返還給股東,我們預計隨著時間的推移,我們可以實現增長。

  • The first dividend payment of $0.10 per share will be paid on October 18 to shareholders of record as of October 1. The initiation of a dividend is an important milestone that reflects the structural transformation Micron has undergone over the last several years, and it shows our confidence in the sustainability of our cash flow generation.

    第一筆每股 0.10 美元的股息將於 10 月 18 日支付給截至 10 月 1 日在冊的股東。 派發股息是一個重要的里程碑,反映了美光在過去幾年中所經歷的結構轉型,它展示了我們的對我們產生現金流的可持續性充滿信心。

  • Our ending FQ4 inventory was $4.5 billion, and average days of the quarter were 94 days, below our normal range of 95 to 105 days. FQ4 finished goods dollar inventory ended at the lowest level since the Elpida acquisition in 2013. We ended the fiscal year with $10.5 billion of total cash and investments and $13 billion of total liquidity. Our FQ4 total debt was $6.8 billion.

    我們的第四季度末庫存為 45 億美元,本季度的平均天數為 94 天,低於我們 95 至 105 天的正常範圍。 FQ4 成品美元庫存收於自 2013 年收購爾必達以來的最低水平。我們以 105 億美元的現金和投資總額以及 130 億美元的總流動資金結束了財年。我們的第四季度總債務為 68 億美元。

  • Now turning to our outlook. End demand across our major markets remains strong. As Sanjay mentioned, our bit shipments are expected to decline modestly in FQ1 as we normalize our inventory position and work with PC customers as they manage through their supply chain challenges. And on the gross margin side, our outlook is similar to how we viewed FQ4. While we will benefit from our node transitions on both DRAM and NAND, we will continue to see near-term headwinds from COVID-related expenses in assembly and packaging. As a result, we expect the gross margins in FQ1 to be largely a function of the mix.

    現在轉向我們的前景。我們主要市場的終端需求依然強勁。正如 Sanjay 所提到的,隨著我們使庫存狀況正常化並與 PC 客戶合作應對供應鏈挑戰,我們的比特出貨量預計將在第一季度小幅下降。在毛利率方面,我們的前景與我們對 FQ4 的看法相似。雖然我們將從 DRAM 和 NAND 上的節點轉換中受益,但我們將繼續看到與 COVID 相關的組裝和封裝費用的短期逆風。因此,我們預計第一季度的毛利率在很大程度上取決於組合。

  • With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for FQ1 is as follows. We expect revenue to be $7.65 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margins to be in the range of 47%, plus or minus 100 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $915 million, plus or minus $25 million. Excluding the impact of any potential new tax legislation, we expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 10% for FQ1. Based on a share count of approximately 1.14 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $2.10, plus or minus $0.10.

    考慮到所有這些因素,我們對 FQ1 的非 GAAP 指導如下。我們預計收入為 76.5 億美元,上下浮動 2 億美元;毛利率在 47% 的範圍內,正負 100 個基點;運營費用約為 9.15 億美元,加上或減去 2500 萬美元。排除任何潛在新稅收立法的影響,我們預計 FQ1 的非 GAAP 稅率約為 10%。基於大約 11.4 億股完全攤薄的股份,我們預計每股收益為 2.10 美元,上下浮動 0.10 美元。

  • In closing, fiscal 2021 was a year of considerable growth and success for Micron. Looking at 4-year average metrics reveals the sustained cross-cycle performance of our business. Over the last 4 years, our gross margins have exceeded 40%, and our operating cash flow margins have been approximately 50%. Despite the challenges stemming from the ongoing pandemic, we have continued to generate significant positive free cash flow while making substantial investments to grow our business. Our technology, product and financial position provides strong momentum as we enter the new fiscal year.

    最後,2021 財年是美光取得可觀增長和成功的一年。查看 4 年平均指標揭示了我們業務的持續跨週期表現。過去 4 年,我們的毛利率已超過 40%,我們的經營現金流利潤率約為 50%。儘管持續的大流行帶來了挑戰,但我們繼續產生可觀的正自由現金流,同時進行大量投資以發展我們的業務。隨著我們進入新的財政年度,我們的技術、產品和財務狀況提供了強勁的動力。

  • I'll now turn it back to Sanjay.

    我現在把它轉回桑傑。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Dave. I would like to share a recent accomplishment that makes me especially proud of our company. Our strong Micron culture has played a significant role in driving our results aligned to our broader vision to transform how the world uses information to enrich life for all. Our company culture, community leadership and business performance are being recognized globally, earning multiple industry awards and recognitions this year. This month, we were ranked by Fortune as one of the top 20 best places to work in manufacturing and production, the only semiconductor company to earn this recognition.

    謝謝你,戴夫。我想分享最近的一項成就,讓我為我們的公司感到特別自豪。我們強大的美光文化在推動我們的成果與我們更廣泛的願景一致方面發揮了重要作用,即改變世界如何使用信息來豐富所有人的生活。我們的公司文化、社區領導力和業務績效在全球範圍內得到認可,今年獲得了多項行業獎項和認可。本月,我們被《財富》雜誌評為製造和生產領域前 20 名最佳工作場所之一,是唯一一家獲得此認可的半導體公司。

  • Fiscal '21 was an excellent year for Micron. As our fourth quarter results clearly demonstrate, we are delivering strong financial results. We are planning to deliver record revenues and solid profitability in fiscal year '22. Demand for memory and storage is solid across market segments. Industry trends like the broad integration of artificial intelligence into all computing, proliferation of the intelligent edge, continued data center growth and deployments of 5G networks create new and expanding opportunities for Micron. The importance of semiconductors to these markets is underscored by government initiatives to invest in domestic semiconductor production both here in the U.S. through the CHIPS Act and in other countries around the world.

    21 財年對美光來說是極好的一年。正如我們的第四季度業績清楚表明的那樣,我們正在提供強勁的財務業績。我們計劃在 22 財年實現創紀錄的收入和穩定的盈利能力。各個細分市場對內存和存儲的需求都很穩定。人工智能廣泛集成到所有計算中、智能邊緣的擴散、持續的數據中心增長和 5G 網絡部署等行業趨勢為美光創造了新的和不斷擴大的機會。政府通過 CHIPS 法案在美國和世界其他國家投資國內半導體生產的舉措強調了半導體對這些市場的重要性。

  • We are focused on building our technology leadership to deliver bold new solutions that offer unique value to our customers. Our business is robust, and we are energized to seize the opportunities ahead of us at a truly exciting time in the semiconductor industry.

    我們專注於建立我們的技術領先地位,以提供大膽的新解決方案,為我們的客戶提供獨特的價值。我們的業務穩健,我們有動力在半導體行業真正激動人心的時刻抓住擺在我們面前的機遇。

  • We will now open for questions.

    我們現在開始提問。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Operator, can you please open the line for questions?

    接線員,您能打開電話諮詢嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We have your first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們收到來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 的第一個問題。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • There are a lot of concerns on inventories in all of your end markets, especially PCs, just given the non-memory component shortages that are limiting notebook and desktop shipments in the second half of the year. Can you guys just qualitatively describe customer and channel inventories in PC, server and smartphone segments of your business? And also as you normalize your inventories through the first half of this fiscal year, do you guys anticipate normal level of inventories on your balance sheet as you enter the second half of the fiscal year?

    考慮到非內存組件短缺限制了下半年筆記本電腦和台式機的出貨量,您對所有終端市場的庫存存在很多擔憂,尤其是個人電腦。你們能否定性地描述您業務的 PC、服務器和智能手機細分市場中的客戶和渠道庫存?而且,隨著您在本財年上半年使庫存正常化,你們是否預計在進入財年下半年時資產負債表上的庫存水平將保持正常?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So I will have Dave comment on the second part of your question. And on your overall inventory question, I would say that by and large, inventory among our customers is in decent shape. Of course, we talked about the PC market where, due to semiconductor component shortages, our PC customers, some of them, are not able to fulfill all of their end demand. And therefore, they have made some adjustments in their purchases, impacting some of our demand in the near term into the PC market. And we think this is short-lived. And over the course of next few months, this will work itself out.

    所以我會讓戴夫對你問題的第二部分發表評論。關於您的整體庫存問題,我想說總的來說,我們客戶的庫存狀況良好。當然,我們談到了 PC 市場,由於半導體元件短缺,我們的 PC 客戶,其中一些,無法滿足他們所有的最終需求。因此,他們對採購進行了一些調整,影響了我們近期對 PC 市場的一些需求。我們認為這是短暫的。在接下來的幾個月裡,這將自己解決。

  • And on the smartphone side, of course, you know that new phone cycle -- new phone launches are coming up. And this tends to be a seasonally strong quarter for new smartphone shipments as well. And while some customers made -- because of geopolitical considerations or through the lessons learned during the pandemic or their own supply chain considerations or supply chain shortages, maybe having a strategy of carrying more inventory than some other customers, overall, the smartphone market continues to be driven by 5G transformation -- transition. Smartphones over the course of calendar year '22 with 5G increasing by 50% from the 2021 levels.

    當然,在智能手機方面,你知道新的手機週期——新手機即將推出。這往往也是新智能手機出貨量的季節性強勁季度。雖然一些客戶做出了——由於地緣政治考慮或通過大流行期間吸取的經驗教訓或他們自己的供應鏈考慮或供應鏈短缺,但可能有比其他一些客戶擁有更多庫存的策略,但總體而言,智能手機市場繼續以5G轉型為驅動——轉型。在 '22 日曆年中,5G 的智能手機比 2021 年的水平增加了 50%。

  • And on the data center side, of course, the investment cycle is strong on the data center side. And of course, the pandemic has driven a strong acceleration in digital transformation, and that's certainly extending into the cloud, cloud services, video streaming, e-commerce, all of these trends, along with new architectures, new processors that are being introduced that actually enable greater AI capability into the workloads and greater usage of -- greater attach of memory in the servers, all of these also are creating new demand. So overall, data center inventory levels also in decent shape.

    而在數據中心方面,當然,數據中心方面的投資週期很強。當然,大流行推動了數字化轉型的強勁加速,這肯定會擴展到雲、雲服務、視頻流、電子商務、所有這些趨勢,以及正在引入的新架構、新處理器實際上,可以在工作負載中啟用更大的 AI 功能,並更多地使用 - 服務器中更大的內存連接,所有這些也正在創造新的需求。所以總的來說,數據中心的庫存水平也不錯。

  • So inventory in our markets today is in much better shape than it was back in the 2018 time frame. Again, some customers may have higher levels due to their strategic considerations, and they may choose to continue to do so in the longer term as well given the challenges faced by the supply chains during the pandemic as well as given geopolitical considerations. So this is what I would like to share with you on inventory. And Dave, you can add to the second part of the question.

    因此,我們今天市場的庫存狀況比 2018 年時要好得多。同樣,一些客戶可能出於戰略考慮而擁有更高的水平,並且考慮到大流行期間供應鏈面臨的挑戰以及考慮到地緣政治考慮,他們可能會選擇在更長時間內繼續這樣做。所以這就是我想與您分享的庫存。戴夫,你可以補充問題的第二部分。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So just as a reminder, when we look at our optimal level of inventory, we'd like to see it be 100 plus in terms of days. We can operate slightly below that. We are definitely below the optimal level at 94 days. I'd say, of course, we never like to see it go as below 95 days. And so we think we will make a little bit of improvement next quarter on -- in terms of days. It will probably be up a few days, but I think it's going to kind of be still below that 100-day figure.

    是的。所以提醒一下,當我們查看我們的最佳庫存水平時,我們希望看到它在天數方面超過 100。我們可以在略低於此值的情況下進行操作。我們絕對低於 94 天的最佳水平。我想說,當然,我們從不希望看到它低於 95 天。因此,我們認為我們將在下個季度進行一些改進——以天數計算。它可能會上升幾天,但我認為它仍然會低於 100 天的數字。

  • As we look through the year, it's -- assuming we can make some progress on inventory, we think we can get it more into the what we would call the optimal stage, which is 100 to 105 days of inventory. It's probably going to exit the year somewhere in the 100 days of inventory.

    當我們回顧這一年時,假設我們可以在庫存方面取得一些進展,我們認為我們可以將其更多地進入我們所說的最佳階段,即 100 到 105 天的庫存。它可能會在 100 天的庫存中退出這一年。

  • As we already talked about, finished goods inventory is really where we're particularly leaning, and we do have to make some progress in that space to get ourselves into a better position. But overall, I'd say the back half of the year will probably be in the optimal range.

    正如我們已經討論過的,成品庫存確實是我們特別傾向於的地方,我們確實必須在該領域取得一些進展才能使自己處於更好的位置。但總的來說,我認為今年下半年可能會處於最佳範圍。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • And you mentioned in your prepared remarks seeing constraints within your supply chain for certain IC components, which is going to limit some of your bit shipments also here in the near term. Can you just give us some examples of some of these IC components both in DRAM and in NAND? I assume, for example, you have some NAND controller constraints, but what about in DRAM?

    您在準備好的評論中提到,您的某些 IC 組件在您的供應鏈中存在限制,這將在短期內限制您的一些比特出貨量。您能給我們舉一些 DRAM 和 NAND 中這些 IC 組件的例子嗎?例如,我假設您有一些 NAND 控制器限制,但在 DRAM 中呢?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So Harlan, you're right to note that some of the controller shortages are there. With respect to SSD and particularly impacting the data center SSD, we also have certain shortages of analog ICs. And these kind of shortages are impacting our ability to ship to the full demand level that we are seeing from the customers.

    所以哈蘭,你注意到一些控制器短缺是正確的。對於SSD,特別是對數據中心SSD的影響,我們也有一定的模擬IC短缺。而這些短缺正在影響我們按照客戶看到的全部需求水平發貨的能力。

  • And if you look at controllers, some of the analog ICs as well as, in general, overall supply chain is running tight. And we are -- we have done a great job by our supply chain team in addressing these needs in the past, and they continue to work on securing the supply for the future. And we would expect that over time, this will get better.

    如果你看看控制器,一些模擬 IC 以及總體供應鏈都在緊張運行。我們 - 我們的供應鏈團隊過去在滿足這些需求方面做得很好,他們將繼續努力確保未來的供應。我們希望隨著時間的推移,情況會變得更好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I was hoping to drill into your gross margins, pretty impressive despite the top line guide. So I guess a couple of parts here. First, in terms of the cost down within the November quarter, I'm assuming more DRAM than NAND. Can you speak to that? Can you also speak to a mix shift in the quarter?

    我希望深入了解您的毛利率,儘管有頂線指南,但還是令人印象深刻。所以我猜這裡有幾個部分。首先,就 11 月季度內的成本下降而言,我假設 DRAM 比 NAND 多。你能談談嗎?您還可以談談本季度的混合班次嗎?

  • And then for all of fiscal '22, how should we be thinking about the type of cost downs across both DRAM and NAND? Should we think 10-plus percent is sustainable year-on-year for DRAM and similar type number, if not higher, on NAND? Or how should we think about that?

    然後在整個 22 財年,我們應該如何考慮 DRAM 和 NAND 的成本下降類型?我們是否應該認為 DRAM 和類似數量的 NAND 同比增長 10% 以上是可持續的,如果不是更高的話?或者我們應該如何考慮?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay. So let me start with the near-term outlook. I would say the cost declines for the November quarter are going to be pretty minimal. We obviously are getting a benefit from both our 1-alpha node and our 176-layer node in NAND, but we are running into some cost headwinds as it relates to the back end, mostly a function of the pandemic and the disruptions that's caused to the supply chain and so forth. And that's actually both a NAND and a DRAM comment, quite honestly. So no specific direction either way on DRAM and NAND.

    好的。因此,讓我從近期前景開始。我想說 11 月季度的成本下降將非常小。顯然,我們從 NAND 中的 1-alpha 節點和 176 層節點中獲益,但我們遇到了一些與後端相關的成本逆風,主要是大流行和造成的中斷的功能供應鍊等等。老實說,這實際上既是 NAND 也是 DRAM 的評論。所以在 DRAM 和 NAND 上都沒有具體的方向。

  • As it relates to mix, obviously, we have a range. It can go a couple of different ways, obviously. But there could be a little bit of a mix shift between DRAM and NAND that could impact where the gross margins end up. Also, by business unit, we could see some mix shifts within the business units, which could impact our margins as well and even down to the product level. So it's hard to call within a couple of hundred basis points. So that's why we gave this range.

    因為它涉及混合,顯然,我們有一個範圍。顯然,它可以有幾種不同的方式。但 DRAM 和 NAND 之間可能會出現一些混合變化,這可能會影響毛利率的最終位置。此外,按業務部門,我們可以看到業務部門內的一些組合變化,這也可能影響我們的利潤率,甚至影響到產品級別。所以很難在幾百個基點內調用。所以這就是我們給出這個範圍的原因。

  • As I've mentioned in the prepared remarks, it's pretty similar to the range we gave. In fact, it's exactly the same as we gave in the prior quarter. So we're roughly seeing things pretty similarly to what we saw in the fourth fiscal quarter. And I agree with you, these are great gross margins. We're pretty happy with them. The operating margins that this generates is in mid- to high-30s. We're expecting something similar for the first fiscal quarter. So we're -- we think we're executing very well on the profitability side of the business.

    正如我在準備好的評論中提到的,它與我們給出的範圍非常相似。事實上,這與我們在上一季度給出的完全相同。因此,我們大致看到的情況與我們在第四財季看到的情況非常相似。我同意你的看法,這些都是很大的毛利率。我們對他們很滿意。這產生的營業利潤率為 30 多歲。我們預計第一財季會出現類似的情況。所以我們 - 我們認為我們在業務的盈利能力方面做得很好。

  • On fiscal '22, we do expect really good cost declines on the front end side for both DRAM and NAND, again, a function of 1-alpha in DRAM and 176-layer in NAND. When we look at kind of longer-term cost declines for DRAM, we see them as being mid- to high single-digit percent cost declines for the industry. We think from a front end perspective, for DRAM, we'll do better than that next year. On the NAND front, we see cost declines over time being more in the mid-teens. And we think the 176-layer next year will drive cost declines in that range next year as well.

    在 22 財年,我們確實預計 DRAM 和 NAND 的前端成本確實會下降,這也是 DRAM 中的 1-alpha 和 NAND 中的 176 層的函數。當我們研究 DRAM 的長期成本下降時,我們認為它們是該行業的中高個位數成本下降。我們從前端的角度認為,對於 DRAM,我們明年會做得更好。在 NAND 方面,我們看到成本隨著時間的推移下降更多在 15 歲左右。我們認為明年的 176 層也將推動明年該範圍內的成本下降。

  • Obviously, Q1, Q2 will likely have these cost headwinds as it relates to the pandemic and the supply challenges. So those things might impact us in the first couple of quarters. But hopefully, over time, that starts to go away, and we'll start to see the benefit also on the back end.

    顯然,第一、第二季度可能會遇到這些成本逆風,因為它與大流行和供應挑戰有關。所以這些事情可能會在前幾個季度影響我們。但希望隨著時間的推移,這種情況開始消失,我們也將開始看到後端的好處。

  • We've made a lot of investment on the back end to improve our cost structure. And I think once we get behind -- get behind us -- or get this behind us, I should say, as it relates to the pandemic, we'll start to experience a lot of the cost benefits that we've put in place on the back end as well.

    我們在後端進行了大量投資以改善我們的成本結構。我認為一旦我們落後 - 落後於我們 - 或者讓我們落後,我應該說,因為它與大流行有關,我們將開始體驗我們已經實施的許多成本收益在後端也是如此。

  • I'd also note that when we look at our cost structure today and as we're looking into next year, all the way through the year, we think the cost reductions that we're seeing are very competitive with the industry. And the cost headwinds we're seeing are very similar to the cost headwinds that others within the industry, not only in memory, but also across the entire semiconductor space, are seeing. So we think this sets us up for, as Sanjay mentioned, very good profitability for next year. And I think that pretty much covers it.

    我還要指出,當我們查看今天和明年的成本結構時,我們認為我們看到的成本降低在整個行業中非常具有競爭力。我們看到的成本逆風與業內其他人看到的成本逆風非常相似,不僅在內存方面,而且在整個半導體領域也如此。所以我們認為,正如桑傑所說,這為我們明年的盈利能力做好了準備。我認為這幾乎涵蓋了它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Shannon Cross of Cross Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

  • The first question I had is with regard to pricing. Can you talk about some of the pricing dynamics, especially with the pullback in demand from the PC vendors? Are you expecting to see any more aggressive moves from your competitors, although given your comments on gross margin, I'm guessing the answer may be no?

    我的第一個問題是關於定價的。您能否談談一些定價動態,尤其是在 PC 供應商需求回落的情況下?儘管考慮到您對毛利率的評論,我猜答案可能是否定的,但您是否希望看到競爭對手採取更激進的舉措?

  • And then my second question is just with regard to your PC OEM partners. How are you tracking confidence that they're going to actually see the demand come through in second half of the year? Because I get a lot of questions from people about double ordering, even just from their end customers. So I'm just wondering if you've changed any methodology in how you're tracking what your partners are seeing or how you're providing guidance as you look out.

    然後我的第二個問題是關於您的 PC OEM 合作夥伴。您如何追踪他們將在下半年實際看到需求實現的信心?因為我從人們那裡得到了很多關於雙重訂購的問題,甚至只是來自他們的最終客戶。所以我只是想知道您是否改變了任何方法來跟踪您的合作夥伴所看到的內容或您在觀察時如何提供指導。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So with respect to pricing, we do not provide comments on pricing, but you can look at our FQ4 results. And of course, we reported that both for DRAM and NAND in FQ4, pricing increased. And you are right to note that our gross margin guidance for FQ1 is strong, in fact, same as Dave earlier pointed out, as our FQ4 guidance was at the time of our June call.

    因此,關於定價,我們不提供有關定價的評論,但您可以查看我們的 FQ4 結果。當然,我們報告說,第四季度 DRAM 和 NAND 的價格都上漲了。並且您注意到我們對 FQ1 的毛利率指引是正確的,事實上,與 Dave 早些時候指出的一樣,因為我們的 FQ4 指引是在我們 6 月電話會議時進行的。

  • And as you look at not only just FQ1, for fiscal year '22, we are projecting a record year for the company with solid profitability for the full year as well. And just remember that pricing is always a function of the mix overall as well.

    當您不僅看到 FQ1 時,在 22 財年,我們預計該公司全年盈利能力也將創下歷史新高。請記住,定價也始終是整體組合的函數。

  • And with respect to your questions around PC, again, as I mentioned, the PC customers have been impacted by their own semiconductor shortages and their supply chain constraints. Their end demand -- their end user demand is very strong. In fact, they have unfulfilled backlog generally among these customers, which is quite extensive. And you know that even in the PC industry, while prices have gone up, if the customers are able to maintain a strong backlog that speaks to the end strong demand.

    關於你關於 PC 的問題,正如我所提到的,PC 客戶已經受到了他們自己的半導體短缺和供應鏈限制的影響。他們的最終需求——他們的最終用戶需求非常強勁。事實上,他們在這些客戶中普遍存在未完成的積壓,這是相當廣泛的。而且您知道,即使在 PC 行業,雖然價格已經上漲,但如果客戶能夠保持強勁的積壓,則最終需求旺盛。

  • It really is all driven by work-from-home, learn-from-home, the demand acceleration that has taken place through the pandemic will continue to support healthy environment for PC in calendar year '22 as well. Of course, in 2020 and 2021, PC has gone through a double-digit unit growth in -- on a calendar year basis. We expect that to moderate in calendar year '22 to perhaps from flat to low single-digit year-over-year growth in terms of PC units sold. Yet, it will be a healthy market. And again, driven by the trends such as the economy is opening, business is opening, workers coming back, that drives a greater mix of enterprise PCs, commercial PCs.

    這真的是由在家工作、在家學習驅動的,大流行帶來的需求加速也將在 22 日曆年繼續支持 PC 的健康環境。當然,在 2020 年和 2021 年,個人電腦在日曆年的基礎上實現了兩位數的單位增長。我們預計在 22 日曆年,PC 銷量的同比增長可能會從持平到低個位數增長。然而,這將是一個健康的市場。同樣,在經濟開放、業務開放、員工回歸等趨勢的推動下,企業 PC 和商用 PC 的組合更加廣泛。

  • So while some of the consumer PC such as Chromebooks, maybe compared to last year, maybe less in demand today, but the commercial PC demand is getting stronger as well. So overall, PC continues to be a healthy market, and we work closely with our customers. And today, they are really constrained by their supply chain shortages. And that's what is adjusting their purchases.

    因此,儘管 Chromebook 等一些消費類 PC 可能與去年相比,今天的需求可能有所減少,但商用 PC 的需求也越來越強勁。因此,總體而言,PC 仍然是一個健康的市場,我們與客戶密切合作。而今天,他們確實受到供應鏈短缺的限制。這就是調整他們的購買。

  • And as I said before, we believe this is going to be short-lived. And we look forward to continuing to support our customers with our products. And as we highlighted, our new technologies, new products, 1-alpha transitions, PC customers are qualifying them fast, and we are focused on delivering those in calendar year '22 as well as fiscal year '22 time frame.

    正如我之前所說,我們相信這將是短暫的。我們期待繼續用我們的產品支持我們的客戶。正如我們所強調的,我們的新技術、新產品、1-alpha 過渡、PC 客戶正在快速獲得資格,我們專注於在 22 日曆年和 22 財年時間框架內交付這些產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I was hoping you could provide a little bit more context around your fiscal '22 CapEx guidance of $11 billion to $12 billion. If you can kind of speak to WFE within that number for fiscal '22 and then differentiate between DRAM and NAND, that would be super helpful. And then just remind us, what kind of bit supply growth are you expecting purely from transitions in both DRAM and NAND as you think about calendar '22?

    我希望你能提供更多關於 110 億至 120 億美元的 22 財年資本支出指導的背景信息。如果您可以在 22 財年的那個數字內與 WFE 交談,然后區分 DRAM 和 NAND,那將非常有幫助。然後提醒我們,當您考慮 22 年日曆時,您完全期望從 DRAM 和 NAND 的過渡中獲得什麼樣的位供應增長?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay. So maybe I'll go through the CapEx for you. So as Sanjay mentioned and as I've reiterated, we expect CapEx to be in the $11 billion to $12 billion range. We were roughly a little bit less than $10 billion, $9.7 billion in fiscal '21. If you look at it by the elements of CapEx, we are going to invest more in pilot enablement this year. Last year was a relatively low year for us in terms of pilot enablement. So that's going to be a reasonable step-up in our CapEx spending.

    好的。所以也許我會為你完成資本支出。因此,正如 Sanjay 提到的和我重申的那樣,我們預計資本支出將在 110 億至 120 億美元之間。我們大約略低於 100 億美元,21 財年為 97 億美元。如果您從資本支出的要素來看,我們今年將在試點支持方面投入更多資金。就試點啟用而言,去年對我們來說是相對較低的一年。所以這將是我們資本支出的合理增加。

  • We feel CapEx equipment in DRAM will be down year-over-year. We think we made a good investment in fiscal '21, and we don't need to invest as much in fiscal '22. So that will be down. NAND will actually step up pretty meaningfully in fiscal '22 versus '21. If you remember, we took CapEx way down in fiscal '20, boosted up a little bit in '21. Now we're up to kind of a full investment level in '22 to support 176-layer. And that was caused because of this transition from floating gate to replacement gate when we made kind of a pause in terms of our CapEx investment to get the first line out at relatively minimal levels.

    我們認為 DRAM 中的資本支出設備將同比下降。我們認為我們在 21 財年進行了很好的投資,我們不需要在 22 財年投資那麼多。所以會下降。與 21 財年相比,NAND 將在 22 財年中顯著提升。如果您還記得,我們在 20 財年降低了資本支出,在 21 財年略有增加。現在我們達到了 22 年的全面投資水平,以支持 176 層。這是由於從浮動門到替代門的這種過渡,當我們在資本支出投資方面暫停以在相對最低的水平上推出第一條線路時。

  • Back-end, we should be up a bit in back-end spend as we make -- continue to make investments on the back-end to put that cost structure into a better place, as I intimated before. We've been making investments to improve our cost structure there. Clean room will be down a little modestly. And of course, we have EUV spending that also will impact our CapEx in fiscal '22 as well.

    後端,正如我之前所暗示的那樣,我們應該在後端支出上有所增加——繼續在後端進行投資,以將成本結構置於更好的位置。我們一直在進行投資以改善我們在那裡的成本結構。潔淨室會稍微下降一點。當然,我們的 EUV 支出也將影響我們在 22 財年的資本支出。

  • I mean, one other thing, just to remind you. So we will be kind of like 60% of our CapEx kind of weighted to the first half, probably 40% to the second half. So this was similar to what we saw in fiscal '21, we're likely to see in fiscal '22, which is kind of our -- have been our typical pattern over the last couple of years.

    我的意思是,另一件事,只是為了提醒你。所以我們將有點像我們的資本支出的 60% 加權到上半年,可能是 40% 到下半年。所以這類似於我們在 21 財年看到的情況,我們很可能會在 22 財年看到,這是我們過去幾年的典型模式。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • And Dave, the transitions, you guys talked about calendar '22 a bit strong mid to high teens on the DRAM side and approximately 30% on the NAND side in line with the industry. What portion of that growth are you guys expecting purely from transitions to 1-alpha and 176?

    戴夫,過渡,你們談到日曆 '22 在 DRAM 方面有點強勁,在 NAND 方面大約 30% 與行業一致。你們完全期望從過渡到 1-alpha 和 176 來實現增長的哪一部分?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sorry, I didn't mean to forget that again. Yes. So it's all from node transitions. We're not adding wafers. We don't see, for the foreseeable future, adding wafers in either DRAM or NAND. In the next few years, we might be adding wafers in DRAM, as Sanjay mentioned. But NAND, we think we can continue with node transitions to support the growth.

    抱歉,我不是有意再次忘記那件事的。是的。所以這一切都來自節點轉換。我們不會添加晶圓。在可預見的未來,我們看不到在 DRAM 或 NAND 中添加晶圓。在接下來的幾年裡,我們可能會在 DRAM 中添加晶圓,正如 Sanjay 提到的。但是 NAND,我們認為我們可以繼續進行節點轉換以支持增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers of Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about some -- a little bit more about the end demand dynamics, particularly around the data center. I'm curious as we move forward, how are you thinking about the bit demand profile of the data center in the server market? And what are you seeing as far as kind of the progression of -- kind of the progression of memory to compute ratio as we move forward to next-generation CPUs? I'm just curious on how you're rolling toward the expectations over the next year and that growth profile from a bit perspective.

    我想問一些關於最終需求動態的問題,特別是在數據中心周圍。我很好奇在我們前進的過程中,您如何看待服務器市場中數據中心的比特需求概況?在我們向下一代 CPU 邁進時,您對內存與計算比率的進展有什麼看法?我只是好奇你是如何從一個角度來看下一年的預期和增長情況的。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Within the data center, both for DRAM and NAND, demand trends would be strong. In fact, data center today has become the largest market for DRAM and NAND and will continue to grow faster than the average of the industry both for NAND and DRAM in the foreseeable future as well. So it's really being driven by the trend of AI, driving greater need for memory in addressing data-intensive workloads.

    在數據中心內,對於 DRAM 和 NAND,需求趨勢將非常強勁。事實上,今天的數據中心已成為 DRAM 和 NAND 的最大市場,並且在可預見的未來,NAND 和 DRAM 的增長速度也將繼續高於行業平均水平。因此,它確實受到 AI 趨勢的驅動,在處理數據密集型工作負載時推動了對內存的更大需求。

  • The BOM is going from about -- the memory and storage part of the BOM in the servers in data centers is going from about 30% a few years ago to around 40% now and going to 50% in a few years' time frame as well. And new architectures, new processors are enabling more cores, and there are -- more cores means more memory attached per core, therefore, greater gigabytes per server for DRAM as well as for NAND.

    BOM 正在從大約 - 數據中心服務器中 BOM 的內存和存儲部分從幾年前的大約 30% 上升到現在的大約 40%,並在幾年的時間範圍內上升到 50%好。新架構、新處理器支持更多內核,而且更多內核意味著每個內核連接的內存更多,因此,DRAM 和 NAND 的每台服務器的千兆字節也更大。

  • DDR5 is a transition that will be occurring over the course of next couple of years as well as new CPUs get launched into production, and DDR5 is a higher bandwidth solution. It, of course, enables more value, higher performance in the applications. So that adoption will be going on. And over the course of the years, of course, CXL and HBM, these ultra-bandwidth solutions, these will also be continuing to grow in the data center space.

    DDR5 是一種過渡,將在未來幾年以及新 CPU 投入生產的過程中發生,而 DDR5 是更高帶寬的解決方案。當然,它可以在應用程序中實現更多價值和更高性能。因此,採用將繼續進行。在這些年的過程中,當然,CXL 和 HBM,這些超帶寬解決方案,這些也將在數據中心領域繼續增長。

  • So average content per server for both DRAM and SSD will also be growing over 20% on a CAGR basis in each of these applications. So strong opportunity ahead, and Micron is very well placed with respect to our own product portfolio in terms of SSDs displacing HDDs, in terms of us providing higher density memory modules for server and data center applications.

    因此,在這些應用中的每一個中,DRAM 和 SSD 的每台服務器的平均內容也將以 CAGR 的形式增長超過 20%。未來的機會如此巨大,就我們為服務器和數據中心應用提供更高密度的內存模塊而言,美光在我們自己的產品組合方面處於非常有利的地位,在 SSD 取代 HDD 方面。

  • So as cloud gets bigger, the data center market gets bigger for us, and we are very well positioned. And this is an area we are focused on and continue to focus on expanding our product portfolio, particularly on the side of the data center SSDs. So we look at this as a strong growth opportunity for the industry as well as for Micron.

    因此,隨著雲變得越來越大,數據中心市場對我們來說也越來越大,我們處於有利地位。這是我們關注的領域,並將繼續專注於擴展我們的產品組合,尤其是在數據中心 SSD 方面。因此,我們將此視為該行業和美光的強勁增長機會。

  • The value that memory and storage solutions providing in the space is really critical for the services that our cloud customers are providing. And just keep in mind that enterprise as well, while it grows at a lower rate compared to the cloud, we are seeing a resurgence in enterprise applications as well, driving for overall healthy demand trends in data center in calendar year '22, fiscal year '22 as well as beyond.

    內存和存儲解決方案在空間中提供的價值對於我們的雲客戶提供的服務來說非常重要。請記住,企業也一樣,雖然與雲相比,它的增長速度較低,但我們也看到企業應用程序的複蘇,推動了 22 日曆年數據中心的整體健康需求趨勢,財政年度'22 以及以後。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes. And then as a quick follow-up, Dave, I'm just curious, as you start to, this last quarter, implement some share repurchases, how do you think about the liquidity on the balance sheet or managing the company from a cash-on-hand perspective versus continuing to lean more in on share repurchase? Just how much cash do you need operationally to comfortably run the company?

    是的。然後作為快速跟進,戴夫,我只是好奇,當你在上個季度開始實施一些股票回購時,你如何看待資產負債表上的流動性或從現金管理公司 -手頭觀點與繼續更多地傾向於股票回購?您在運營上需要多少現金才能舒適地經營公司?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • So we roughly are holding about mid-30s as a percent of revenue in terms liquidity, but $2.5 billion of that liquidity is our unused revolver. So cash is obviously less than that. We obviously have more liquidity than we need, which, of course, is a good opportunity as it relates to the buyback.

    因此,就流動性而言,我們大致持有大約 30 歲左右的收入,但其中 25 億美元是我們未使用的左輪手槍。所以現金顯然少於那個。我們顯然擁有比我們需要的更多的流動性,這當然是一個很好的機會,因為它與回購有關。

  • As I mentioned, we're also going to receive $900 million from the sale of our Lehi fab. That also can be utilized for returns to shareholders. And we're expecting healthy free cash flow in fiscal '22 as well. And so we'll be able to leverage that. We've committed to return at least 50% of it in the form of dividend and buyback, mostly buyback. And we could obviously go higher than that.

    正如我所提到的,我們還將通過出售我們的 Lehi 晶圓廠獲得 9 億美元。這也可以用於回報股東。我們也期待 22 財年的健康自由現金流。所以我們將能夠利用它。我們承諾以股息和回購的形式返還至少 50%,主要是回購。我們顯然可以走得更高。

  • Our authorized plan, we still have $6 billion left in our authorized plan for repurchases. And if we see the stock be weak, which, of course, is how we viewed it in the fourth quarter, we'll be aggressive about buying back stock.

    我們的授權計劃,我們的授權回購計劃還有60億美元。如果我們看到股票疲軟,當然,這就是我們在第四季度的看法,我們將積極回購股票。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wonder if you could address what transitions going on in both DRAM and NAND to 1-alpha and RG2. Are there any issues that, that creates from a mix standpoint in terms of it seems like there's quite a bit of demand for the older products? Where are you in terms of getting qualified in the newer products? Just how is that affecting you guys?

    我想知道您是否可以解決從 DRAM 和 NAND 到 1-alpha 和 RG2 的轉變。從混合的角度來看,是否存在任何問題,似乎對舊產品有相當多的需求?在獲得新產品資格方面,您在哪裡?這對你們有什麼影響?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Actually, we are doing very well with respect to ramping up these new nodes in production right on our plan. In fact, in terms of yields, ahead of our plans, I highlighted that the yields in these 176-layer NAND as well as 1-alpha DRAM have ramped 20% to 30% faster than our prior 1z generation node and the prior FG node -- the last FG node. So -- and customer qualifications actually are going very well with these nodes as well. As I mentioned earlier that we are already shipping out 1-alpha in the PC space as well as broadening its shipments to other parts of the markets as well.

    實際上,我們在按照我們的計劃在生產中增加這些新節點方面做得很好。事實上,在良率方面,在我們計劃之前,我強調這些 176 層 NAND 和 1-alpha DRAM 的良率比我們之前的 1z 代節點和之前的 FG 節點快 20% 到 30% -- 最後一個 FG 節點。因此,這些節點的客戶資格實際上也進展順利。正如我之前提到的,我們已經在 PC 領域推出 1-alpha,並將其出貨量擴大到市場的其他部分。

  • In fact, customers are working closely with us in qualifying these products. 1-alpha and 176-layer NAND-based mobile product went from just introduction to 1 million unit shipments in a record time, fastest ramp in the history of the company.

    事實上,客戶正在與我們密切合作以驗證這些產品。基於 1-alpha 和 176 層 NAND 的移動產品在創紀錄的時間內從剛剛推出到 100 萬件出貨量,這是公司歷史上最快的增長。

  • So overall, these nodes in production as well as in terms of deployment in the marketplace are doing very well for us. And of course, this is all baked into our guidance that we have provided in terms of our revenue as well as our cost expectations.

    所以總的來說,這些節點在生產中以及在市場中的部署方面對我們來說都非常好。當然,這一切都包含在我們提供的收入和成本預期方面的指導中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Congratulations on the solid execution. Sanjay, you're sort of characterizing the current environment as relatively short-lived. Are we supposed to read into that, that as we go into the February quarter, your business might normally kind of buck normal seasonal headwinds?

    祝賀你的執行力。桑傑,你把當前的環境描述為相對短暫的。我們是否應該讀到這一點,當我們進入 2 月季度時,您的業務通常可能會克服正常的季節性逆風?

  • And I guess, importantly, upturn to date, this memory cycle has been very different than prior memory cycles. Typically, you have sort of 8 quarters of unabated ASP growth and margin expansion. We're kind of at least plateauing here 3 quarters into it. What's different about this cycle? And I guess what makes you confident this is just a pause and not something more nefarious?

    而且我想,重要的是,到目前為止,這個記憶週期與之前的記憶週期大不相同。通常,您有 8 個季度的 ASP 增長和利潤率有增無減。我們至少在這里達到了 3 個季度的穩定水平。這個週期有什麼不同?我想是什麼讓你相信這只是一個暫停而不是更邪惡的事情?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So with respect to the comment on the short-lived, just to be clear, what I was mentioning was that with respect to PC part of the market where our customers -- some of our customers in the PC market have experienced semiconductor shortages impacting their decisions on purchases of memory, that's what I was mentioning short-lived because their end user demand on PCs is still very strong and a lot of unmet demand that actually stretches the demand over time and makes the demand longer -- stronger for longer. But my comment regarding short-lived and addressing it in the next few months was related to the PC part of the market.

    因此,關於短暫存在的評論,明確地說,我提到的是,關於我們客戶的 PC 市場部分——我們在 PC 市場的一些客戶經歷了半導體短缺,影響了他們的關於購買內存的決定,這就是我所說的短暫的,因為他們的最終用戶對 PC 的需求仍然非常強勁,而且許多未滿足的需求實際上會隨著時間的推移延長需求並使需求變得更長——更持久。但我關於短暫存在並在未來幾個月解決它的評論與市場的 PC 部分有關。

  • And outside of that, in other markets, as we discussed earlier, we see strong demand trends, strong end-user demand trends. And of course, the supply chain shortages that are being experienced in PC are also being experienced in other parts of our markets as well by our customers, but of course, different customers are handling them in overall a different fashion. But the underlying demand trends driven by AI and 5G from data center, to the intelligent edge, to the user devices, are strong. They are secular in nature. COVID further accelerated it. Semiconductor supply chain shortages are only stretching that demand out as because some of the demand gets pushed out.

    除此之外,在其他市場,正如我們之前所討論的,我們看到了強勁的需求趨勢和強勁的最終用戶需求趨勢。當然,PC 中正在經歷的供應鏈短缺也在我們市場的其他部分以及我們的客戶中經歷過,但是當然,不同的客戶以不同的方式處理它們。但人工智能和 5G 驅動的從數據中心到智能邊緣再到用戶設備的潛在需求趨勢非常強勁。它們本質上是世俗的。 COVID進一步加速了它。半導體供應鏈短缺只會因為部分需求被擠出而導致需求拉長。

  • So as I said, making those demand, growth drivers actually stronger for longer as well. So you can call it pent-up demand, but that's what I'm referring to. So on the demand side, things are here, overall, strong. On the supply chain aspects, of course, this is something that you know that the lead time in the semiconductors is long, and this will take several quarters to continue to improve.

    所以正如我所說,使這些需求,增長動力實際上也更持久。所以你可以稱之為被壓抑的需求,但這就是我所指的。因此,在需求方面,總體而言,情況良好。當然,在供應鏈方面,這是你知道的,半導體的交貨時間很長,這需要幾個季度才能繼續改進。

  • Part of the semiconductor supply chain have already seen improvements. Our expectation is that these will continue to improve as well over the course of the coming quarters. And also keep in mind that our industry -- the memory industry, over the course of last couple of years, has tapped into the inventory to ship beyond the supply growth. And this is a phenomenon that has occurred across the industry. Certainly, you have seen that how Micron has brought its inventory to the leanest level in many years, in fact, below our target inventory levels. So this is something that is common to all suppliers in the memory industry.

    部分半導體供應鏈已經有所改善。我們的預期是,在接下來的幾個季度中,這些情況也將繼續改善。還要記住,我們的行業——內存行業,在過去幾年的過程中,已經利用庫存來超越供應增長的出貨量。這是整個行業都發生的現象。當然,您已經看到美光如何將其庫存降至多年來的最低水平,事實上,低於我們的目標庫存水平。所以這是存儲器行業所有供應商的共同點。

  • And as we look ahead, the supply growth will not only have to meet the customer requirements, but it will also have to replenish the inventory that has been taken to such low levels. Inventory has to be replenished in order to make sure that we are able to service our customers and meet their demand requirements, which from time to time change. So these are all factors as well, very lean levels of inventory by the suppliers as well as need to replenish that inventory will drive for a healthy demand supply balance in calendar year '22 time frame as well.

    展望未來,供應增長不僅必須滿足客戶的需求,而且還必須補充已降至如此低水平的庫存。必須補充庫存,以確保我們能夠為客戶提供服務並滿足他們不時變化的需求。因此,這些也是所有因素,供應商的庫存水平非常低,並且需要補充庫存也將推動 22 日曆年的健康需求供應平衡。

  • So yes, some of this in terms of our own supply chain shortages and some that are being experienced by our customers, we expect to be addressed over the course of time. And some of these shortages on the semiconductor ecosystem may take through 2022 time frame -- by the end of '22, maybe some of them will be relieved. However, we expect them to continue to be improving through the course of time all the way through calendar year '22.

    所以是的,其中一些是我們自己的供應鏈短缺以及我們的客戶正在經歷的一些問題,我們希望隨著時間的推移得到解決。半導體生態系統中的一些短缺可能會持續到 2022 年——到 22 年底,其中一些可能會得到緩解。但是,我們預計它們將在整個 22 日曆年的整個過程中繼續改進。

  • But the demand dynamics of the underlying strong drivers and the supply dynamics that I discussed, including the prudent CapEx investments that have gone on in the industry and the lean supply, all of this will lead to healthy supply-demand environment in the industry. So it's really the combination of the demand drivers and the suppliers' -- supply capabilities and shipment capabilities. That combination, I think, really sets us up well as an industry for revenue growth and strong profitability in '22. And of course, we have projected, based on our expectations that we will have record revenue in fiscal year '22 and solid profitability as well.

    但是,潛在的強勁驅動因素的需求動態和我討論的供應動態,包括該行業進行的審慎資本支出投資和精益供應,所有這些都將導致該行業的供需環境健康。所以這實際上是需求驅動因素和供應商——供應能力和運輸能力的結合。我認為,這種組合確實使我們成為一個在 22 年實現收入增長和強勁盈利能力的行業。當然,根據我們的預期,我們預計我們將在 22 財年實現創紀錄的收入和穩健的盈利能力。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Sanjay, those inventory comments were very helpful. I'm just kind of curious as a quick follow-on. Your guidance for bits to be down in the November quarter. How much is that a conscious decision by you to hold bits off the market to help maybe push in pricing? And how much of that is just being driven by there's no demand for those bits, and that's why bits is down?

    Sanjay,這些庫存評論非常有幫助。作為快速跟進,我只是有點好奇。您對 11 月季度位下降的指導。你有意識地決定在市場上保留一些東西以幫助推動定價有多少?其中有多少是因為對這些位沒有需求,這就是位下降的原因?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, again, I think keep in mind that our inventory is very lean. It is at the leanest level and below our target levels, and that is impacting some of our ability to meet the demand as well. And overall, our projection of bits with respect to FQ1 is really a function of our own supply chain capabilities in terms of our inventory is and what we can ship at this point to the customers, certainly impacted by some of the component shortages, non-memory component shortages that we are seeing in the marketplace as well and our assessment of overall demand. And the main thing there really is around the PC where the -- some of the demand is impacted.

    好吧,我想請記住,我們的庫存非常稀少。它處於最精簡的水平並低於我們的目標水平,這也影響了我們滿足需求的一些能力。總的來說,我們對 FQ1 的位預測實際上是我們自己的供應鏈能力的函數,就我們的庫存而言,我們此時可以向客戶運送什麼,當然會受到一些組件短缺的影響,非我們在市場上也看到內存組件短缺以及我們對整體需求的評估。主要的事情是在 PC 周圍 - 一些需求受到影響。

  • But overall, when you look at our guidance for FQ1, which takes into account any aspects of seasonality as well, but the guidance for FQ1, at its midpoint, is about 32%, 33% higher than the same quarter last year. So our inventory capability is also overall impacting some of the ability for our customers in terms of what we can share.

    但總體而言,當您查看我們對 FQ1 的指導時,該指導也考慮了季節性的任何方面,但 FQ1 的指導在中點約為 32%,比去年同期高出 33%。因此,就我們可以共享的內容而言,我們的庫存能力也在總體上影響了我們客戶的一些能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

    我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Appreciate that. Dave, I guess I had a question on gross margin. I wanted to go back to a question asked earlier. It's down only 100 basis points on your guidance, on like an 8% down revenue quarter. And it sounds like bits are only down modestly in both DRAM and NAND. So it sounds like the delta is probably pricing I would think more on the DRAM side.

    感謝。戴夫,我想我對毛利率有疑問。我想回到之前提出的一個問題。在您的指導下,它僅下降了 100 個基點,就像收入下降 8% 的季度一樣。聽起來 DRAM 和 NAND 中的比特位僅略有下降。所以聽起來增量可能是定價我會更多地考慮 DRAM 方面。

  • And then somebody asked you about costs, and you said, well, costs aren't coming down very much. So I guess I'm trying to figure out how gross margin is so good. Is this going back to some of the mix comments that you made last quarter? It seems like a more sustainable trend that maybe people are missing. So I'm wondering if you can kind of flip that for us.

    然後有人問你關於成本的問題,你說,嗯,成本並沒有下降多少。所以我想我正試圖弄清楚毛利率如何如此之好。這是否可以追溯到您上個季度發表的一些混合評論?這似乎是一種更可持續的趨勢,人們可能會失踪。所以我想知道你是否可以為我們翻轉一下。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Sure, Tim. Yes. So cost declines are going to be relatively muted, remember that. There will be some mix changes that might impact gross margins to bring it down somewhere within the range that we gave. Obviously, the rest is a function of pricing, and you have to infer what you can out of pricing. Obviously, if mix is the predominant factor in driving gross margins, pricing and cost will not be major factors in driving gross margins. Maybe that's the best way to say it.

    是的。當然,蒂姆。是的。因此,成本下降將相對溫和,請記住這一點。將會有一些混合變化可能會影響毛利率,使其在我們給出的範圍內下降。顯然,其餘的都是定價的函數,你必須推斷出你能從定價中得到什麼。顯然,如果混合是推動毛利率的主要因素,定價和成本將不是推動毛利率的主要因素。也許這是最好的表達方式。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Got it. Got it. Okay. And then I guess just last thing. So just on the cost curve. So you reached -- you said you reached production crossover on 176 and on 1-alpha and 1z. So how much -- like what's the lag effect in terms of when that really starts to bend the cost curve in a favorable direction given that you've hit production crossover on those things?

    知道了。知道了。好的。然後我想這只是最後一件事。所以只是在成本曲線上。所以你達到了 - 你說你在 176 和 1-alpha 和 1z 上達到了生產交叉。那麼,考慮到您已經在這些事情上實現了生產交叉,那麼在何時真正開始使成本曲線向有利方向彎曲方面的滯後效應是多少?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Well, to be clear, 1-alpha and 1z, we've hit crossover. 176, we hit at the end of the year. They're already, by the way, benefiting us from a cost perspective. It's hard to see it maybe as much just because we're getting a little bit impacted obviously on the back end, which is impacting the cost declines. But next year, we do anticipate that both of them will drive good cost reductions for us on the front end side. So they will be good nodes for us in terms of cost structure. And I think we'll see that from a front end perspective every quarter.

    是的。好吧,要清楚,1-alpha 和 1z,我們已經實現了交叉。 176,我們打到了年底。順便說一下,從成本的角度來看,它們已經使我們受益。很難看到它可能僅僅因為我們在後端明顯受到了一點影響,這正在影響成本下降。但是明年,我們確實預計它們都將在前端方面為我們帶來良好的成本降低。因此,就成本結構而言,它們將是我們的好節點。我認為我們每個季度都會從前端的角度看到這一點。

  • Again, I think the first couple of quarters, it may not be as noticeable in our cost per bit calculations because of this more of a headwind on the back end side of the cost structure. But after we get behind that, I think you'll see -- you see that show up on the cost per bit basis as well.

    同樣,我認為前幾個季度,在我們的每比特成本計算中可能不會那麼明顯,因為成本結構後端的阻力更大。但是在我們支持之後,我想你會看到 - 你會看到每比特成本也顯示出來。

  • The only other factor will obviously be mix as well. And we're going to drive like heck to get our mix to be more -- to be a richer mix of higher-value products and -- which is always our goal. And of course, with higher value products, you get higher costs but higher profitability, higher gross margins. So that's a good strategy, but that also kind of distorts the picture and will distort the picture over the course of the year as well.

    唯一的其他因素顯然也是混合。我們將全力以赴,讓我們的產品組合更加豐富——成為更豐富的高價值產品組合——這始終是我們的目標。當然,對於更高價值的產品,您會獲得更高的成本,但更高的盈利能力和更高的毛利率。所以這是一個很好的策略,但這也會扭曲情況,並且也會在一年中扭曲情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。