美光科技 (MU) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Latif, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Micron's Fourth Quarter 2021 Financial Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    午安.我叫拉蒂夫,今天將擔任本次會議的主持人。現在,我謹代表美光科技,歡迎各位參加2021年第四季財務業績發布電話會議。 (操作說明)

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

    現在我很高興把發言權交給主持人,投資者關係副總裁法爾漢·艾哈邁德先生。會議可以開始了。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2021 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO; and Dave Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will be approximately 60 minutes in length. This call, including the audio and slides, is also being webcast from our Investor Relations website at investors.micron.com.

    謝謝,歡迎參加美光科技2021財年第四季財務電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有總裁兼執行長Sanjay Mehrotra先生和財務長Dave Zinsner先生。本次電話會議時長約60分鐘。本次會議的音訊和幻燈片將透過美光科技投資者關係網站investors.micron.com進行網路直播。

  • In addition, our website contains earnings press release and the prepared remarks filed a short while ago. Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures may be found on our website. As a reminder, a webcast replay will be available on our website later today. We encourage you to monitor our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending. You can follow us on Twitter @MicronTech.

    此外,我們的網站上也發布了獲利新聞稿和不久前提交的準備好的發言稿。除非另有說明,今天的財務業績討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。 GAAP與非GAAP財務指標的調整表可在我們的網站上找到。提醒您,網路直播回放將於今天稍晚在我們的網站上提供。我們鼓勵您在本季度持續關注micron.com網站,以獲取公司最新信息,包括我們將參加的各類金融會議的信息。您也可以在Twitter上關注我們:@MicronTech。

  • As a reminder, the matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today. We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q, for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results.

    再次提醒,我們今天討論的內容包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響,可能導致實際結果與今天所作陳述有重大差異。有關可能影響我們未來業績的風險,請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件,特別是我們最新的10-K表和10-Q表。

  • Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, level of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after today's date to conform these statements to actual results.

    儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的,但我們無法保證未來的績效、活動水準、表現或成就。我們沒有義務在今日之後更新任何前瞻性陳述,使其與實際結果相符。

  • I will now turn the call over to Sanjay.

    現在我將把電話轉給桑傑。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. We delivered outstanding results in fiscal Q4, achieving robust profitability and the second highest quarterly revenue in Micron's history. Strong execution drove healthy results across segments, including record quarterly revenue in NAND as well as in our embedded business.

    謝謝法爾漢。大家下午好。我們在第四財季取得了卓越的業績,實現了強勁的獲利能力,並創下了美光史上第二高的季度營收。強而有力的執行推動了各業務板塊的良好表現,包括NAND快閃記憶體和嵌入式業務的季度營收均創歷史新高。

  • Fiscal 2021 was a year of many records for Micron. We achieved our highest-ever mobile revenue driven by all-time high managed NAND revenue and MCP mix. Our embedded business had a tremendous record-breaking year, with auto and industrial businesses both at substantial new highs. And our crucial-branded consumer business and overall QLC mix in NAND all hit records in fiscal 2021.

    2021財年對美光來說是創下多項紀錄的一年。我們實現了有史以來最高的行動業務收入,這主要得益於管理型NAND快閃收入和MCP產品佔比均創歷史新高。我們的嵌入式業務也取得了巨大的突破性進展,汽車和工業業務都創下歷史新高。此外,我們關鍵品牌消費業務以及NAND快閃記憶體中QLC產品的整體佔比在2021財年也均創下了歷史新高。

  • Through the year, we successfully navigated multiple obstacles brought on by the pandemic and reached several key milestones. For the first time in Micron's history, we established technology leadership concurrently in both DRAM and NAND. Micron's 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND are the industry's most advanced nodes in high-volume production. And we further strengthened our product leadership by becoming first to introduce LP5X DRAM and uMCP5 managed NAND in mobile and the industry's first functional safety capable LP5 for automotive applications.

    在過去一年中,我們成功克服了疫情帶來的諸多挑戰,並取得了多項關鍵里程碑式的成就。美光史上首次在DRAM和NAND兩大領域同時確立了技術領先地位。美光的1-alpha DRAM和176層NAND是業界最先進的量產節點。此外,我們率先在行動領域推出LP5X DRAM和uMCP5管理型NAND,並率先在汽車應用領域推出業界首款具備功能安全能力的LP5產品,進一步鞏固了我們的產品領先地位。

  • The secular demand for memory and storage, combined with Micron's focused execution and our rock-solid balance sheet, position us well to deliver strong financial performance and create significant shareholder value in fiscal 2022 and beyond. Demonstrating our confidence in our business trajectory, we initiated a quarterly dividend that we aim to grow over time.

    市場對記憶體和儲存設備的長期需求,加上美光專注的執行力和穩健的資產負債表,使我們有能力在2022財年及以後實現強勁的財務業績,並為股東創造顯著價值。為了展現我們對業務發展前景的信心,我們啟動了季度分紅計劃,並計劃逐步提高分紅額度。

  • Memory is at the leading edge of semiconductor manufacturing, and Micron has leadership in both DRAM and NAND technology. This quarter, we reached mature yields in our ramp of 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND, 20% to 30% faster than prior nodes and delivered performance and feature improvements that will help unleash customer innovation. We believe we are several quarters ahead of the industry in deployment of these process technologies.

    記憶體處於半導體製造的前沿,而美光在DRAM和NAND技術領域均處於領先地位。本季度,我們的1-alpha DRAM和176層NAND產能爬坡已達到成熟良率,比之前的製程節點快20%至30%,並實現了效能和功能上的提升,這將有助於釋放客戶的創新潛力。我們相信,在這些工藝技術的部署方面,我們領先業界幾季。

  • Additionally, through deeper customer collaboration, we have further accelerated the time to market for value-added solutions built using these nodes. 1-alpha and 1z DRAM nodes combined now represent the majority of our DRAM bit production driven by strong growth of 1-alpha production. And by the end of the calendar year, 176-layer NAND will make up the majority of our NAND bit production.

    此外,透過與客戶更深入的合作,我們進一步加快了基於這些節點所建構的增值解決方案的上市速度。目前,1-alpha 和 1z DRAM 節點合計已占我們 DRAM 位產量的絕大部分,主要得益於 1-alpha 節點產量的強勁增長。到今年年底,176 層 NAND 快閃記憶體將占我們 NAND 位產量的絕大部分。

  • Looking beyond 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND, we are investing to sustain scaling in both technologies for the next decade. Adding momentum to our years of R&D in EUV, we recently took delivery of the industry's latest EUV system, NXE 3600, at our Boise headquarters where we operate one of the world's most advanced centers for semiconductor research and development. The delivery of this tool is an important milestone toward our previously disclosed plan of implementing EUV in high-volume manufacturing in the 2024 time frame. We expect that the integration of EUV with our existing multipatterning immersion lithography expertise will help us maintain DRAM technology leadership for many years to come.

    展望未來,除了1-alpha DRAM和176層NAND之外,我們還在持續投資,以確保未來十年這兩種技術的持續擴展。為了進一步推進我們在EUV技術方面的研發,我們近期在位於博伊西的總部接收了業界最新的EUV系統NXE 3600。博伊西總部是我們全球最先進的半導體研發中心之一。這台設備的交付是我們先前公佈的計劃中的一個重要里程碑,該計劃旨在2024年左右將EUV技術應用於大規模生產。我們預計,將EUV技術與我們現有的多重曝光浸沒式微影技術結合,將有助於我們在未來多年保持DRAM技術的領先地位。

  • In addition to being a technology leader and an innovation partner, we are uniquely positioned as a strategic supplier to our customers. Micron is the only U.S.-based memory company, and our strong global manufacturing network provides us with a diversified source of supply, which has become increasingly critical to ensure that we continue to deliver product reliably to our customers. The advantages of this unique position have been proven throughout the past 18 months as we have successfully navigated the challenges of COVID-19 across our global manufacturing network while maintaining continuity of supply to our customers.

    除了作為技術領導者和創新合作夥伴之外,我們還擁有獨特的策略供應商地位。美光是唯一一家總部位於美國的記憶體公司,我們強大的全球製造網路為我們提供了多元化的供應來源,這對於確保我們持續可靠地向客戶交付產品至關重要。在過去18個月中,我們成功應對了新冠疫情在全球製造網絡中帶來的挑戰,並保持了對客戶的持續供應,這充分證明了我們獨特地位的優勢。

  • Now let us review our end markets. The demand for memory and storage has evolved dramatically from the PC-centric era. Today, demand for memory and storage is driven from diversified end markets that extend from data center to the intelligent edge and to a growing diversity of user devices. As a result of growing memory and storage content per device, DRAM and NAND now account for an ever-increasing portion of the bill of materials for our customers. DRAM and NAND's TAM share of semiconductor industry has steadily grown over the last 2 decades from around 10% to approximately 30% today. The AI and 5G revolution is only in its infancy, and as these secular growth drivers gain further traction, we expect new data-intensive applications to continue to fuel significant increases in DRAM and NAND TAM.

    現在讓我們回顧一下我們的終端市場。記憶體和儲存的需求已經從以個人電腦為中心的時代發生了翻天覆地的變化。如今,記憶體和儲存的需求來自多元化的終端市場,涵蓋資料中心、智慧邊緣以及日益豐富的使用者設備。由於每個裝置的記憶體和儲存容量不斷增長,DRAM 和 NAND 在客戶物料清單中所佔的比例也越來越高。過去二十年來,DRAM 和 NAND 在半導體行業的潛在市場份額穩步增長,從約 10% 增長到如今的約 30%。人工智慧和 5G 革命尚處於起步階段,隨著這些長期成長驅動因素的進一步發展,我們預計新的數據密集應用將繼續推動 DRAM 和 NAND 潛在市場規模的顯著成長。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, data center revenue grew sequentially and year-over-year, fueled by secular drivers in cloud demand and the resurgence of enterprise IT investment linked to improving economic growth. Data center has become the largest market for memory and storage driven by the rapid growth in cloud. With our broadening portfolio of differentiated products across memory and storage, we are in a strong position to drive strong growth and profitability in this important segment.

    在第四財季,資料中心營收環比和年成長均實現成長,這主要得益於雲端運算需求的長期成長以及經濟成長帶動企業IT投資的復甦。雲端運算的快速發展已成為記憶體和儲存產品的最大市場。憑藉我們不斷拓展的記憶體和儲存差異化產品組合,我們有能力在這個重要領域實現強勁成長和獲利。

  • We have been engaged on DDR5 from initial specification development and are well placed to support customer transitions to DDR5-enabled platforms starting later this calendar year. We are also enhancing our NVMe SSD portfolio and will soon introduce PCIe Gen4 data center SSDs with Micron designed controllers and leveraging the full benefit of vertical integration. These SSDs will strengthen our market position over the course of the coming quarters and years in the fast-growing data center NVMe storage market.

    我們從DDR5規範的最初制定階段就參與其中,並已做好充分準備,支援客戶從今年稍後開始向DDR5平台過渡。同時,我們也不斷增強NVMe SSD產品組合,即將推出採用美光設計控制器的PCIe Gen4資料中心SSD,並充分利用垂直整合的優勢。這些SSD將在未來幾季和幾年內,鞏固我們在快速成長的資料中心NVMe儲存市場的市場地位。

  • Work- and learn-from-anywhere trends are driving the second consecutive year of double-digit PC unit sales growth in calendar 2021. In the fiscal fourth quarter, PC DRAM revenue was up significantly year-over-year. We are making strong progress transitioning our PC DRAM to our 1-alpha node, which represented a meaningful portion of our FQ4 PC bit shipments. Client QLC SSD bit mix hit a new record and made up the majority of our client SSD bit shipments in FQ4. Our QLC leadership enhances our bit supply capability and product profitability. We also have continued momentum ramping 176-layer NAND products for the PC market, and we qualified our 176-layer NAND-based Gen4 NVMe client SSDs with several PC OEMs during the quarter.

    隨時隨地辦公和學習的趨勢推動了2021年PC銷售連續第二年實現兩位數成長。在第四財季,PC DRAM營收較去年同期成長顯著。我們在PC DRAM向1-alpha節點過渡方面取得了強勁進展,部分產品佔第四財季PC位出貨量的相當大比例。客戶端QLC SSD的位出貨量創下新紀錄,佔第四財季客戶端SSD位出貨量的絕大部分。我們在QLC領域的領先地位提升了我們的位供應能力和產品獲利能力。此外,我們持續推動以PC市場為導向的176層NAND產品的量產,並在本季度完成了基於176層NAND的第四代NVMe客戶端SSD與多家PC OEM廠商的認證。

  • In graphics, revenue increased sequentially and year-over-year driven by a continuation of last quarter's strong next-generation game console and graphics card shipments. Micron holds an excellent position in the fast-growing graphics market with a broad product portfolio featuring our proprietary GDDR6X product line and deep partnerships with leading GPU suppliers.

    在圖形業務方面,得益於上季度強勁的新一代遊戲主機和顯示卡出貨量延續,營收季比和年成長均實現成長。美光憑藉著豐富的產品組合(包括我們自主研發的GDDR6X產品線)以及與領先GPU供應商的深度合作關係,在快速成長的圖形市場中佔據了領先地位。

  • FQ4 mobile revenue increased more than 25% year-over-year driven by continued unit sales and content growth. We expect overall smartphone unit sales to grow this year with sales of over 500 million 5G mobile phones forecasted. These content-rich 5G phones featured more than 50% higher DRAM and double the NAND content than 4G phones. We expect 5G and AI to drive new innovation in applications such as AI-optimized video capture and editing that will fuel DRAM and NAND content growth for years to come.

    第四季行動業務營收年增超過25%,主要得益於持續的銷售成長和內容成長。我們預計今年智慧型手機整體銷售將持續成長,其中5G手機銷售預計將超過5億支。這些內容豐富的5G手機的DRAM容量比4G手機高出50%以上,NAND快閃記憶體容量更是翻了一番。我們預期5G和人工智慧將推動AI優化影片拍攝和編輯等應用領域的創新,並在未來幾年持續推動DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體容量的成長。

  • Our 1-alpha LP4 16-gigabit design is now fully qualified and ramping at multiple OEMs, while our 176-layer NAND achieved its first UFS 3.1 qualifications at 2 OEMs. These wins demonstrate Micron's leadership in the mobile market and our continued strength in managed NAND products where MCP sales surpassed $1 billion for the third straight quarter.

    我們的 1-alpha LP4 16Gb 設計現已完成全面認證,並在多家 OEM 廠商實現量產;同時,我們的 176 層 NAND 快閃記憶體也首次獲得兩家 OEM 廠商的 UFS 3.1 認證。這些成功案例彰顯了美光在行動市場的領先地位,以及我們在託管 NAND 產品領域的持續強勁實力——MCP 銷售額已連續三個季度突破 10 億美元。

  • We are continuing to see strong demand in our edge markets, which includes automotive and industrial IoT. We expect the automotive and industrial markets to be the fastest-growing memory and storage markets over the next decade. As the #1 player in these markets, Micron is exceptionally well positioned to benefit from these secular growth trends. Our automotive business delivered a fourth consecutive record quarter driven by continued recovery in auto manufacturing and the growth of memory and storage content driven by in-vehicle infotainment and driver assistance applications.

    我們持續看到邊緣運算市場(包括汽車和工業物聯網)的強勁需求。我們預計,未來十年汽車和工業市場將成為成長最快的記憶體和儲存市場。作為這些市場的領導企業,美光擁有得天獨厚的優勢,能夠從這些長期成長趨勢中獲益。由於汽車製造業的持續復甦以及車載資訊娛樂和駕駛輔助應用推動的記憶體和儲存需求成長,我們的汽車業務連續第四個季度創下業績新高。

  • Industrial IoT revenues also set records in the fiscal fourth quarter, benefiting from the continued growth of applications such as point-of-sales devices, factory automation and surveillance. We expect industrial demand trends to accelerate further as 5G speeds the adoption of data-intensive applications powered by intelligent edge infrastructure. We are also seeing an acceleration in our consumer IoT business driven by rapid growth in devices such as VR headsets, smart exercise equipment and smart speakers.

    工業物聯網業務在第四財季也創下歷史新高,這得益於銷售點終端、工廠自動化和監控等應用領域的持續成長。我們預計,隨著5G加速智慧邊緣基礎設施驅動的數據密集型應用的普及,工業領域的需求趨勢將進一步加速。此外,受VR頭顯、智慧健身器材和智慧音箱等設備的快速成長所推動,我們的消費性物聯網業務也呈現加速發展態勢。

  • Turning to market outlook. Calendar 2021 is shaping up to be a strong year. We expect calendar 2021 industry DRAM bit demand growth to be in the low 20% range and industry NAND bit demand growth to be in the high 30% range.

    展望市場前景,2021年可望成為強勁的一年。我們預計2021年DRAM產業位需求成長率將在20%左右,NAND產業位需求成長率將在30%以上。

  • Overall, our preliminary view is that calendar 2022 industry bit demand growth will be consistent with long-term industry bit demand growth CAGRs in the mid to high teens for DRAM and approximately 30% for NAND. We anticipate underlying demand in calendar 2022 to be led by increasing data center server deployments, 5G mobile shipments and continued strength in automotive and industrial markets.

    總體而言,我們初步認為,2022 年行業位需求成長將與 DRAM 的長期位需求複合年增長率 (CAGR) 保持一致,預計 DRAM 的複合年增長率將達到 15% 至 20% 左右,NAND 的複合年增長率約為 30%。我們預計,2022 年的潛在需求將主要由資料中心伺服器部署量的成長、5G 行動裝置出貨量以及汽車和工業市場的持續強勁成長所驅動。

  • Additionally, non-memory supply shortages that are constraining customer bills across various end market segments and that are pushing out some demand should ease throughout 2022, supporting demand growth during the year. Given prudent industry CapEx and very lean supplier inventories, we expect healthy industry supply-demand balance and robust profitability for both DRAM and NAND in the year.

    此外,目前影響各終端市場客戶帳單並導致部分需求延遲的非記憶體供應短缺問題,預計將在2022年得到緩解,從而支撐全年的需求成長。鑑於產業資本支出謹慎,且供應商庫存極低,我們預計2022年DRAM和NAND的產業供需將維持健康平衡,獲利能力也將強勁。

  • In the near term, our FQ1 bit shipments will decline modestly in both DRAM and NAND from very strong levels in FQ4. Some PC customers are adjusting their memory and storage purchases due to shortages of non-memory components that are needed to complete PC builds. We expect this adjustment at our PC customers to be largely resolved in the coming months. We are also seeing constraints within our supply chain for certain IC components, which will somewhat limit our bit shipments in the near term.

    短期內,我們第一季DRAM和NAND的位級出貨量將較第四季強勁的水平略有下降。部分PC客戶由於組裝PC所需的非內存組件短缺,正在調整其內存和存儲設備的採購。我們預計PC客戶的這項調整將在未來幾個月內基本解決。此外,我們部分積體電路組件的供應鏈也面臨限制,這將在短期內對我們的位元級出貨量造成一定程度的限制。

  • Bit shipment growth will resume in the second half of the fiscal year, and we are planning to deliver record revenue with solid profitability in fiscal 2022. Our calendar year '22 bit shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will be in line with the industry. However, due to the strong shipments in fiscal year '21 and our below normal current inventory level, for fiscal year '22, our bit shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will somewhat lag the long-term CAGRs.

    位元出貨量成長將在本財年下半年恢復,我們計劃在2022財年實現創紀錄的營收和穩健的獲利能力。 2022財年DRAM和NAND的位出貨量成長將與產業平均值持平。然而,由於2021財年出貨量強勁,且目前庫存水準低於正常水平,2022財年DRAM和NAND的位出貨量成長將略低於長期複合年增長率。

  • In fiscal year '22, the continued ramp of 1-alpha and 176-layer NAND should provide us with good front-end cost reductions. Our efforts to increase supply chain resilience and provide business continuity to our customers will cause headwinds to our assembly and packaging costs, consistent with the trend in the overall industry. Overall, we expect annual cost per bit reductions to be competitive with the industry in fiscal year '22 and over the long term.

    在2022財年,1-alpha和176層NAND快閃記憶體的持續量產將為我們帶來顯著的前端成本降低。我們致力於提升供應鏈韌性,保障客戶的業務連續性,這將推高我們的組裝和封裝成本,與整個產業的趨勢一致。整體而言,我們預計在2022財年及長期內,每比特成本的年度降幅將與產業平均值保持競爭力。

  • Turning to capital expenditures. We expect fiscal year '22 CapEx in the range of $11 billion to $12 billion. The year-on-year increase in CapEx is driven by our continued 176-layer NAND transition, pilot line enablement for next-generation NAND and DRAM and continued infrastructure and prepayments to support the introduction of EUV. Fiscal year '22 DRAM equipment CapEx for manufacturing will decline from fiscal year '21 as we benefit from the capital efficiency of our mature 1-alpha node.

    接下來談談資本支出。我們預計2022財年的資本支出將在110億美元至120億美元之間。資本支出較去年成長主要得益於我們持續推進176層NAND快閃記憶體的過渡、下一代NAND和DRAM試生產線的啟用,以及為支援EUV光刻技術的引入而持續進行的基礎設施建設和預付款。由於我們受惠於成熟的1-alpha製程節點帶來的資本效率提升,2022財年DRAM製造設備的資本支出將較2021財年下降。

  • For fiscal year '22, our bit supply growth will be achieved through no transitions alone as we are a few years away from needing wafer start additions to keep up with the industry demand. We also expect to increase fiscal year '22 R&D investment by approximately 15% from fiscal year '21 to deliver bold product and technology innovations designed to fuel the data economy as well as to expand our portfolio to capitalize on opportunities such as high-bandwidth memory and CXL solutions.

    2022財年,我們的比特供應成長將無需任何轉型即可實現,因為我們距離需要新增晶圓產能以滿足產業需求還有數年時間。此外,我們預計2022財年的研發投入將比2021財年成長約15%,以推出大膽的產品和技術創新,旨在推動資料經濟的發展,並拓展我們的產品組合,從而掌握高頻寬記憶體和CXL解決方案等機會。

  • Our leadership portfolio, product quality, supply chain agility and deep customer relationships make us a preferred partner in many of our markets, and we are confident in our ability to continue to create long-term sustained profitability and returns built on that leadership.

    我們憑藉領先的產品組合、產品品質、供應鏈靈活性和深厚的客戶關係,成為許多市場的首選合作夥伴,我們有信心繼續憑藉這一領先地位創造長期可持續的盈利能力和回報。

  • I will now turn it over to Dave.

    現在我把麥克風交給戴夫。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Sanjay. Micron delivered excellent FQ4 results highlighted by our second highest quarterly revenues, strong growth in operating margins and our substantial positive free cash flow. Total FQ4 revenue was approximately $8.3 billion, up 11% quarter-over-quarter and up 37% year-over-year.

    謝謝,桑傑。美光科技第四財季業績表現出色,季度營收排名第二,營業利益率強勁成長,自由現金流充裕。第四財季總營收約83億美元,較上季成長11%,較去年同期成長37%。

  • As a reminder, FQ4 of last year was a 14-week quarter and impacts our year-over-year comparisons. FQ4 revenue growth was broad-based with solid demand and price increases in both DRAM and NAND. Our robust growth in FQ4 contributed to strong performance in FY '21 with revenue of $27.7 billion, which was up 29% from the prior fiscal year.

    需要提醒的是,去年第四財季為14週,因此會影響我們與去年同期的比較。第四財季營收成長全面,DRAM和NAND的需求強勁,價格也均有所上漲。第四財季的強勁成長為2021財年的出色業績做出了貢獻,該財年營收達到277億美元,較上一財年增長29%。

  • FQ4 DRAM revenue was $6.1 billion, representing 74% of total revenue. DRAM revenue increased 12% sequentially and was up 39% year-over-year. Bit shipments increased in the lower single-digit percentage sequentially, and ASPs increased in the high single-digit percent range quarter-over-quarter. For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $20 billion, representing 72% of total fiscal year revenue.

    第四財季DRAM營收為61億美元,佔總營收的74%。 DRAM營收季增12%,較去年同期成長39%。位元出貨量較上季成長10%,平均售價較上季成長接近10%。本財年,DRAM營收年增38%至200億美元,佔全年總營收的72%。

  • FQ4 NAND revenue was approximately $2 billion, an all-time high and representing 24% of the total revenue. NAND revenue increased 9% sequentially and was up 29% year-over-year. Bit shipments increased by low single-digit percentage sequentially, while ASPs increased in the mid-single-digit percent range quarter-over-quarter. For the fiscal year, we achieved a new company record for NAND revenue of $7 billion, an increase of 14% year-over-year. NAND revenue represented 25% of our total fiscal year revenue.

    第四財季NAND快閃記憶體營收約20億美元,創歷史新高,佔總營收的24%。 NAND快閃記憶體營收季增9%,年增29%。比特出貨量較上季成長個位數百分比,而平均售價則是較上季成長個位數百分比。本財年,NAND快閃記憶體營收達70億美元,創公司新紀錄,年增14%。 NAND快閃記憶體營收佔本財年總營收的25%。

  • Now turning to our FQ4 revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the Compute and Networking Business Unit was $3.8 billion, up 15% sequentially and up 26% year-over-year. Growth was led by the data center and graphics markets. Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit was $1.9 billion, down 5% sequentially and up 29% year-over-year. Mobile demand remained healthy in the quarter with continued momentum from the rollout of 5G. MBU revenue for fiscal '21 exceeded $7 billion and set a new record.

    現在來看看我們第四財季各業務部門的營收趨勢。計算與網路業務部門營收為38億美元,季增15%,年增26%。資料中心和圖形市場是推動成長的主要動力。行動業務部門營收為19億美元,季減5%,較去年同期成長29%。本季行動需求依然強勁,5G的持續推廣帶來了強勁的成長動能。 2021財年行動業務部門營收超過70億美元,創下歷史新高。

  • Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $1.2 billion, up 19% from the prior quarter and up 32% year-over-year. Data center SSDs had strong growth in the quarter driven by enterprise and cloud strength. QLC shipments set a new record in the fiscal year in terms of percentage of our NAND shipments.

    儲存業務部門營收達12億美元,較上一季成長19%,年增32%。資料中心固態硬碟(SSD)在本季實現強勁成長,主要得益於企業級和雲端業務的強勁表現。 QLC快閃記憶體的出貨量佔NAND快閃記憶體出貨量的比例創下本財年新高。

  • Finally, the Embedded Business Unit generated record revenue of $1.4 billion, which was up 23% sequentially and more than doubled year-over-year. We continue to experience strong demand across the automotive and industrial markets. For the fiscal year, EBU revenue easily exceeded $4 billion, setting a new revenue record.

    最後,嵌入式業務部門創造了14億美元的營收紀錄,季增23%,年增超過一倍。我們在汽車和工業市場持續感受到強勁的需求。本財年,嵌入式業務部門的營收輕鬆突破40億美元,創下新的營收紀錄。

  • The consolidated gross margin for FQ4 was 47.9%, up 500 basis points from the prior quarter. Pricing increases across DRAM and NAND as well as strong execution in our ongoing product portfolio transformation drove margin expansion in the quarter. Operating expenses in FQ4 were $891 million on the lower end of the range we provided in last quarter's earnings call. FQ4 operating income was $3.1 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 37%, up from 32% in FQ3 and up from 21% in the prior year.

    第四財季綜合毛利率為47.9%,較上一季成長500個基點。 DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體產品價格上漲以及我們持續推動的產品組合轉型取得顯著成效,推動了本季毛利率的提升。第四財季營運支出為8.91億美元,處於上一季財報電話會議中給出的預期範圍的下限。第四財季營業收入為31億美元,營業利益率為37%,高於第三財季的32%及去年同期的21%。

  • FQ4 EBITDA was $4.7 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 57.1% compared to 53.3% in the prior quarter and 47.4% in the prior year. For the fiscal year, total EBITDA was $14 billion, up from $9 billion in the prior fiscal year and represented 50.4% of revenues.

    第四財季EBITDA為47億美元,EBITDA利潤率為57.1%,高於上一季的53.3%和上年同期的47.4%。本財年EBITDA總額為140億美元,高於上一財年的90億美元,佔總營收的50.4%。

  • Non-GAAP earnings per share in FQ4 were $2.42, up from $1.88 in FQ3 and up from $1.08 in the year ago quarter. EPS included approximately $0.02 of gains from investments in our venture arm, Micron Ventures. For the fiscal year, total EPS was $6.06, up more than 100% from the $2.83 achieved in the prior fiscal year.

    第四財季非GAAP每股收益為2.42美元,高於第三財季的1.88美元及去年同期的1.08美元。每股盈餘包含約0.02美元來自我們創投部門Micron Ventures的投資收益。本財年總每股收益為6.06美元,較上一財年的2.83美元成長超過100%。

  • Turning to cash flows and capital spending. We generated $3.9 billion in cash from operations in FQ4, representing 47% of revenue. For the fiscal year, cash from operations totaled $12.5 billion, up from $8.3 billion in the prior fiscal year. Net capital spending was $2 billion during the quarter and $9.7 billion in fiscal '21. We generated positive free cash flow of $1.9 billion in FQ4 and over $2.8 billion for the fiscal year. The increased cash flow was driven by strong revenue growth, increased profitability and efficient working capital management.

    接下來談談現金流和資本支出。第四財季,我們透過經營活動產生了39億美元的現金流,佔總營收的47%。本財年,經營活動產生的現金流量總額為125億美元,高於上一財年的83億美元。本季淨資本支出為20億美元,2021財年淨資本支出為97億美元。第四財季,我們產生了19億美元的自由現金流,本財年自由現金流超過28億美元。現金流的成長主要得益於強勁的收入成長、獲利能力的提升以及高效的營運資本管理。

  • As Sanjay mentioned, we expect our fiscal '22 capital spending to be between $11 billion and $12 billion. Like fiscal '21, we expect our capital spending to be weighted more to the first half of the fiscal year, which will constrain free cash flow in FQ1 and FQ2. We do expect to generate healthy free cash flow in fiscal '22 but weighted toward the back half of the year. We also expect to close our Lehi fab sale within FQ1, and we will receive approximately $900 million in proceeds from the sale.

    正如Sanjay所提到的,我們預計2022財年的資本支出將在110億美元至120億美元之間。與2021財年類似,我們預計資本支出將更集中在上半年,這將限制第一季和第二季的自由現金流。我們預計2022財年將產生可觀的自由現金流,但主要集中在下半年。此外,我們預計將在第一季完成Lehi工廠的出售,並將從中獲得約9億美元的收益。

  • We completed share repurchases of $1.1 billion or approximately 13.9 million shares in FQ4. For the fiscal year, we repurchased $1.2 billion or approximately 15.6 million shares.

    我們在第四財季完成了11億美元(約1,390萬股)的股票回購。本財年,我們共回購了12億美元(約1,560萬股)的股票。

  • From fiscal '17 to fiscal '21, we generated over $20 billion of free cash flow. During this period, we used approximately $5 billion of that cash flow to retire debt and $7 billion towards buying back stock and eliminating the dilution from convertible debt, reducing our share count by 148 million shares. We also improved our total cash and investment position by $5.5 billion. We expect that we will continue to generate strong free cash flow in the future. And as we discussed on our capital return strategy call in early August, we are committed to returning more than 50% of cross-cycle free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of buybacks and a quarterly dividend that we expect we can grow over time.

    從2017財年至2021財年,我們創造了超過200億美元的自由現金流。在此期間,我們利用其中約50億美元用於償還債務,70億美元用於股票回購,從而消除可轉換債券帶來的股權稀釋,使我們的流通股數量減少了1.48億股。此外,我們的現金和投資總額也增加了55億美元。我們預計未來將持續產生強勁的自由現金流。正如我們在8月初的資本回報策略電話會議上所討論的,我們致力於透過股票回購和季度分紅(我們預計分紅金額會隨著時間推移而增長)的方式,將超過50%的跨週期自由現金流返還給股東。

  • The first dividend payment of $0.10 per share will be paid on October 18 to shareholders of record as of October 1. The initiation of a dividend is an important milestone that reflects the structural transformation Micron has undergone over the last several years, and it shows our confidence in the sustainability of our cash flow generation.

    首次派息為每股 0.10 美元,將於 10 月 18 日支付給 10 月 1 日登記在冊的股東。開始發放股利是一個重要的里程碑,反映了美光在過去幾年中經歷的結構性轉型,也顯示了我們對現金流可持續性的信心。

  • Our ending FQ4 inventory was $4.5 billion, and average days of the quarter were 94 days, below our normal range of 95 to 105 days. FQ4 finished goods dollar inventory ended at the lowest level since the Elpida acquisition in 2013. We ended the fiscal year with $10.5 billion of total cash and investments and $13 billion of total liquidity. Our FQ4 total debt was $6.8 billion.

    第四財季末庫存為45億美元,平均庫存週轉天數為94天,低於我們通常的95至105天範圍。第四財季成品庫存額為自2013年收購艾必達以來的最低水準。本財年末,我們持有現金及投資總額為105億美元,流動資金總額為130億美元。第四財季總債務為68億美元。

  • Now turning to our outlook. End demand across our major markets remains strong. As Sanjay mentioned, our bit shipments are expected to decline modestly in FQ1 as we normalize our inventory position and work with PC customers as they manage through their supply chain challenges. And on the gross margin side, our outlook is similar to how we viewed FQ4. While we will benefit from our node transitions on both DRAM and NAND, we will continue to see near-term headwinds from COVID-related expenses in assembly and packaging. As a result, we expect the gross margins in FQ1 to be largely a function of the mix.

    現在來看看我們的展望。我們主要市場的終端需求依然強勁。正如Sanjay所提到的,隨著庫存水準的正常化以及與PC客戶攜手應對供應鏈挑戰,預計第一財季我們的位級出貨量將略有下降。毛利率方面,我們的展望與第四財季類似。雖然DRAM和NAND的製程節點轉換將使我們受益,但與新冠疫情相關的組裝和封裝成本仍將帶來短期不利影響。因此,我們預計第一財季的毛利率將主要取決於產品組合。

  • With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for FQ1 is as follows. We expect revenue to be $7.65 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margins to be in the range of 47%, plus or minus 100 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $915 million, plus or minus $25 million. Excluding the impact of any potential new tax legislation, we expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 10% for FQ1. Based on a share count of approximately 1.14 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $2.10, plus or minus $0.10.

    考慮到以上所有因素,我們對第一財季的非GAAP績效指引如下:預計營收為76.5億美元,上下浮動2億美元;毛利率為47%,上下浮動100個基點;營運費用約9.15億美元,上下浮動2,500萬美元。不計任何潛在新稅法的影響,我們預期第一財季的非GAAP稅率約為10%。基於約11.4億股完全稀釋後的股份數量,我們預計每股收益為2.10美元,上下浮動0.10美元。

  • In closing, fiscal 2021 was a year of considerable growth and success for Micron. Looking at 4-year average metrics reveals the sustained cross-cycle performance of our business. Over the last 4 years, our gross margins have exceeded 40%, and our operating cash flow margins have been approximately 50%. Despite the challenges stemming from the ongoing pandemic, we have continued to generate significant positive free cash flow while making substantial investments to grow our business. Our technology, product and financial position provides strong momentum as we enter the new fiscal year.

    綜上所述,2021財年對美光來說是成長顯著且碩果累累的一年。回顧過去四年的平均指標,我們可以發現公司業務在各個經濟週期中都保持著持續穩定的良好表現。過去四年,我們的毛利率一直超過40%,經營現金流利潤率約為50%。儘管面臨持續的新冠疫情帶來的挑戰,我們依然保持了可觀的自由現金流,並持續進行大量投資以促進業務成長。憑藉著強大的技術、產品和財務實力,我們為新財年的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。

  • I'll now turn it back to Sanjay.

    現在我把麥克風交還給桑傑。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Dave. I would like to share a recent accomplishment that makes me especially proud of our company. Our strong Micron culture has played a significant role in driving our results aligned to our broader vision to transform how the world uses information to enrich life for all. Our company culture, community leadership and business performance are being recognized globally, earning multiple industry awards and recognitions this year. This month, we were ranked by Fortune as one of the top 20 best places to work in manufacturing and production, the only semiconductor company to earn this recognition.

    謝謝戴夫。我想和大家分享一項近期的成就,這項成就讓我為我們公司感到格外自豪。我們強大的美光企業文化在推動公司業績方面發揮了重要作用,這與我們「改變世界利用資訊的方式,從而豐富所有人的生活」的宏偉願景相契合。我們的企業文化、社區領導力和業務表現正獲得全球認可,今年榮獲多項行業獎項和榮譽。本月,我們被《財星》雜誌評為製造業和生產領域最佳雇主前20強之一,也是唯一獲此殊榮的半導體公司。

  • Fiscal '21 was an excellent year for Micron. As our fourth quarter results clearly demonstrate, we are delivering strong financial results. We are planning to deliver record revenues and solid profitability in fiscal year '22. Demand for memory and storage is solid across market segments. Industry trends like the broad integration of artificial intelligence into all computing, proliferation of the intelligent edge, continued data center growth and deployments of 5G networks create new and expanding opportunities for Micron. The importance of semiconductors to these markets is underscored by government initiatives to invest in domestic semiconductor production both here in the U.S. through the CHIPS Act and in other countries around the world.

    2021財年對美光來說是輝煌的一年。正如我們第四季的業績所清晰展現的那樣,我們取得了強勁的財務業績。我們計劃在2022財年實現創紀錄的營收和穩健的獲利能力。各細分市場對記憶體和儲存的需求依然強勁。人工智慧廣泛融入所有運算領域、智慧邊緣的普及、資料中心的持續成長以及5G網路的部署等行業趨勢,為美光創造了新的、不斷擴大的機會。政府透過《晶片和半導體生產促進計畫法案》(CHIPS Act)等舉措,以及在世界其他國家投資國內半導體生產的舉措,凸顯了半導體對這些市場的重要性。

  • We are focused on building our technology leadership to deliver bold new solutions that offer unique value to our customers. Our business is robust, and we are energized to seize the opportunities ahead of us at a truly exciting time in the semiconductor industry.

    我們致力於鞏固技術領先地位,為客戶提供具有獨特價值的創新解決方案。我們的業務穩健發展,在這個半導體產業蓬勃發展的令人興奮的時刻,我們充滿幹勁,準備把握眼前的機會。

  • We will now open for questions.

    現在開始接受提問。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Operator, can you please open the line for questions?

    接線員,請問可以接通提問線路嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We have your first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們收到了來自摩根大通的哈蘭·蘇爾的第一個問題。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • There are a lot of concerns on inventories in all of your end markets, especially PCs, just given the non-memory component shortages that are limiting notebook and desktop shipments in the second half of the year. Can you guys just qualitatively describe customer and channel inventories in PC, server and smartphone segments of your business? And also as you normalize your inventories through the first half of this fiscal year, do you guys anticipate normal level of inventories on your balance sheet as you enter the second half of the fiscal year?

    鑑於非記憶體組件短缺限制了下半年筆記型電腦和桌上型電腦的出貨量,貴公司所有終端市場的庫存都存在許多擔憂,尤其是PC市場。能否請貴公司定性描述PC、伺服器和智慧型手機業務的客戶及通路庫存狀況?此外,隨著貴公司在本財年上半年逐步恢復庫存,預計進入下半年時,資產負債表上的庫存水準將恢復正常嗎?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So I will have Dave comment on the second part of your question. And on your overall inventory question, I would say that by and large, inventory among our customers is in decent shape. Of course, we talked about the PC market where, due to semiconductor component shortages, our PC customers, some of them, are not able to fulfill all of their end demand. And therefore, they have made some adjustments in their purchases, impacting some of our demand in the near term into the PC market. And we think this is short-lived. And over the course of next few months, this will work itself out.

    我會請Dave來回答您問題的第二部分。關於您提到的整體庫存問題,我想說,總體而言,我們客戶的庫存狀況良好。當然,我們也討論過PC市場,由於半導體元件短缺,我們的一些PC客戶無法滿足全部終端需求。因此,他們調整了採購計劃,這在短期內影響了我們對PC市場的部分需求。我們認為這種情況只是暫時的,未來幾個月內應該會有所改善。

  • And on the smartphone side, of course, you know that new phone cycle -- new phone launches are coming up. And this tends to be a seasonally strong quarter for new smartphone shipments as well. And while some customers made -- because of geopolitical considerations or through the lessons learned during the pandemic or their own supply chain considerations or supply chain shortages, maybe having a strategy of carrying more inventory than some other customers, overall, the smartphone market continues to be driven by 5G transformation -- transition. Smartphones over the course of calendar year '22 with 5G increasing by 50% from the 2021 levels.

    當然,在智慧型手機方面,大家都知道新機上市週期即將到來。而且,這通常也是智慧型手機新機出貨量的季節性旺季。雖然有些客戶——可能是出於地緣政治因素、疫情期間的經驗教訓、自身供應鏈方面的考慮或供應鏈短缺,採取了比其他客戶更高的庫存策略,但總體而言,智慧型手機市場仍然受到5G轉型驅動。 2022年全年,5G智慧型手機的銷售量預計比2021年成長50%。

  • And on the data center side, of course, the investment cycle is strong on the data center side. And of course, the pandemic has driven a strong acceleration in digital transformation, and that's certainly extending into the cloud, cloud services, video streaming, e-commerce, all of these trends, along with new architectures, new processors that are being introduced that actually enable greater AI capability into the workloads and greater usage of -- greater attach of memory in the servers, all of these also are creating new demand. So overall, data center inventory levels also in decent shape.

    當然,資料中心方面的投資週期目前非常強勁。疫情加速了數位轉型,這股浪潮也延伸到了雲端運算、雲端服務、視訊串流、電子商務等領域。所有這些趨勢,以及新架構和新處理器的推出,都為工作負載帶來了更強大的人工智慧能力,並提高了伺服器記憶體的利用率,所有這些都創造了新的需求。因此,整體而言,資料中心的庫存水準也處於良好狀態。

  • So inventory in our markets today is in much better shape than it was back in the 2018 time frame. Again, some customers may have higher levels due to their strategic considerations, and they may choose to continue to do so in the longer term as well given the challenges faced by the supply chains during the pandemic as well as given geopolitical considerations. So this is what I would like to share with you on inventory. And Dave, you can add to the second part of the question.

    所以,目前我們市場的庫存狀況比2018年好得多。當然,有些客戶出於戰略考慮,庫存水準可能仍然較高,考慮到疫情期間供應鏈面臨的挑戰以及地緣政治因素,他們可能也會選擇長期維持較高的庫存水準。以上就是我想和大家分享的關於庫存的情況。戴夫,你可以補充問題的第二部分。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So just as a reminder, when we look at our optimal level of inventory, we'd like to see it be 100 plus in terms of days. We can operate slightly below that. We are definitely below the optimal level at 94 days. I'd say, of course, we never like to see it go as below 95 days. And so we think we will make a little bit of improvement next quarter on -- in terms of days. It will probably be up a few days, but I think it's going to kind of be still below that 100-day figure.

    是的。再次提醒一下,我們理想的庫存水準是100天以上。我們可以略低於這個水準運作。目前我們的庫存天數是94天,肯定低於理想水準。當然,我們絕不希望低於95天。所以我們認為下個季度庫存天數會略有改善,可能會增加幾天,但應該仍然低於100天。

  • As we look through the year, it's -- assuming we can make some progress on inventory, we think we can get it more into the what we would call the optimal stage, which is 100 to 105 days of inventory. It's probably going to exit the year somewhere in the 100 days of inventory.

    展望今年,假設我們能在庫存方面取得一些進展,我們認為可以將其控制在最佳水平,即100到105天的庫存量。年底庫存量可能會維持在100天左右。

  • As we already talked about, finished goods inventory is really where we're particularly leaning, and we do have to make some progress in that space to get ourselves into a better position. But overall, I'd say the back half of the year will probably be in the optimal range.

    正如我們之前討論過的,成品庫存是我們目前重點關注的領域,我們必須在這方面取得一些進展,才能讓自己處於更有利的地位。但總的來說,我認為下半年的庫存水準可能會處於最佳範圍。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • And you mentioned in your prepared remarks seeing constraints within your supply chain for certain IC components, which is going to limit some of your bit shipments also here in the near term. Can you just give us some examples of some of these IC components both in DRAM and in NAND? I assume, for example, you have some NAND controller constraints, but what about in DRAM?

    您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到,貴公司某些積體電路組件的供應鏈有限制,這將在短期內限制部分晶片的出貨量。您能否舉例說明DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體中哪些積體電路元件會受到限制?例如,我猜想貴公司在NAND快閃記憶體控制器方面存在一些限制,那麼DRAM方面的情況如何呢?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So Harlan, you're right to note that some of the controller shortages are there. With respect to SSD and particularly impacting the data center SSD, we also have certain shortages of analog ICs. And these kind of shortages are impacting our ability to ship to the full demand level that we are seeing from the customers.

    哈蘭,你說得對,控制器確實有短缺。就固態硬碟而言,特別是資料中心固態硬碟,我們也面臨類比積體電路短缺的問題。這些短缺影響了我們滿足客戶全部需求的能力。

  • And if you look at controllers, some of the analog ICs as well as, in general, overall supply chain is running tight. And we are -- we have done a great job by our supply chain team in addressing these needs in the past, and they continue to work on securing the supply for the future. And we would expect that over time, this will get better.

    如果你看一下控制器,你會發現一些類比積體電路以及整個供應鏈都面臨著供應緊張的問題。過去,我們的供應鏈團隊在滿足這些需求方面做得非常出色,他們也一直在努力確保未來的供應。我們預計隨著時間的推移,情況會有所改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I was hoping to drill into your gross margins, pretty impressive despite the top line guide. So I guess a couple of parts here. First, in terms of the cost down within the November quarter, I'm assuming more DRAM than NAND. Can you speak to that? Can you also speak to a mix shift in the quarter?

    我原本想深入了解你們的毛利率,儘管營收預期不高,但毛利率確實相當可觀。所以我想問幾個問題。首先,關於11月季度成本下降的問題,我猜DRAM的降幅大於NAND。您能解釋一下嗎?另外,您能否談談本季產品組合的變化?

  • And then for all of fiscal '22, how should we be thinking about the type of cost downs across both DRAM and NAND? Should we think 10-plus percent is sustainable year-on-year for DRAM and similar type number, if not higher, on NAND? Or how should we think about that?

    那麼,在整個2022財年,我們該如何看待DRAM和NAND的成本下降幅度呢?我們是否認為DRAM每年10%以上的降幅是可持續的,而NAND的降幅如果不能更高,也應該達到類似的水平?或者我們應該如何看待這個問題?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay. So let me start with the near-term outlook. I would say the cost declines for the November quarter are going to be pretty minimal. We obviously are getting a benefit from both our 1-alpha node and our 176-layer node in NAND, but we are running into some cost headwinds as it relates to the back end, mostly a function of the pandemic and the disruptions that's caused to the supply chain and so forth. And that's actually both a NAND and a DRAM comment, quite honestly. So no specific direction either way on DRAM and NAND.

    好的。那麼,我先來說說近期的展望。我認為11月季度的成本下降幅度會非常有限。我們顯然從NAND快閃記憶體的1-alpha節點和176層節點中獲益,但在後端方面,我們遇到了一些成本方面的阻力,這主要是由於疫情以及對供應鏈造成的衝擊等等。坦白說,這其實也適用於NAND快閃記憶體和DRAM。所以,DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體的未來發展方向目前還無法確定。

  • As it relates to mix, obviously, we have a range. It can go a couple of different ways, obviously. But there could be a little bit of a mix shift between DRAM and NAND that could impact where the gross margins end up. Also, by business unit, we could see some mix shifts within the business units, which could impact our margins as well and even down to the product level. So it's hard to call within a couple of hundred basis points. So that's why we gave this range.

    就產品組合而言,顯然我們有一個範圍。情況可能會有多種變化。 DRAM 和 NAND 之間的產品組合可能會略有調整,這可能會影響最終的毛利率。此外,以業務部門劃分,我們可能會看到業務部門內部的產品組合也發生一些變化,這也會影響我們的利潤率,甚至影響到產品層面。因此,很難精確預測幾百個基點的差異。這就是我們給出這個範圍的原因。

  • As I've mentioned in the prepared remarks, it's pretty similar to the range we gave. In fact, it's exactly the same as we gave in the prior quarter. So we're roughly seeing things pretty similarly to what we saw in the fourth fiscal quarter. And I agree with you, these are great gross margins. We're pretty happy with them. The operating margins that this generates is in mid- to high-30s. We're expecting something similar for the first fiscal quarter. So we're -- we think we're executing very well on the profitability side of the business.

    正如我在準備好的發言稿中提到的,這與我們之前給出的範圍非常接近。事實上,它與我們上一季給出的範圍完全相同。因此,我們看到的情況與第四財季大致相同。我同意你的看法,這些毛利率非常可觀,我們對此相當滿意。由此產生的營業利益率在30%中高段位。我們預計第一財季的情況也與之類似。因此,我們認為我們在業務盈利方面做得非常出色。

  • On fiscal '22, we do expect really good cost declines on the front end side for both DRAM and NAND, again, a function of 1-alpha in DRAM and 176-layer in NAND. When we look at kind of longer-term cost declines for DRAM, we see them as being mid- to high single-digit percent cost declines for the industry. We think from a front end perspective, for DRAM, we'll do better than that next year. On the NAND front, we see cost declines over time being more in the mid-teens. And we think the 176-layer next year will drive cost declines in that range next year as well.

    2022財年,我們預期DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體的前端成本都將大幅下降,這主要得益於DRAM的1-alpha晶片和NAND的176層快閃記憶體。展望DRAM的長期成本下降趨勢,我們預期整個產業的成本降幅將達到個位數百分比的中高點。我們認為,從前端成本的角度來看,DRAM明年的表現會更好。 NAND快閃記憶體方面,我們預期其成本降幅將達到十幾個百分點。我們認為,明年推出的176層快閃記憶體也將推動成本下降到這一水平。

  • Obviously, Q1, Q2 will likely have these cost headwinds as it relates to the pandemic and the supply challenges. So those things might impact us in the first couple of quarters. But hopefully, over time, that starts to go away, and we'll start to see the benefit also on the back end.

    顯然,受疫情和供應鏈挑戰的影響,第一季和第二季很可能面臨成本的阻力。因此,這些因素可能會在前幾個季度對我們造成影響。但希望隨著時間的推移,這些影響會逐漸消失,我們也能在後期看到收益。

  • We've made a lot of investment on the back end to improve our cost structure. And I think once we get behind -- get behind us -- or get this behind us, I should say, as it relates to the pandemic, we'll start to experience a lot of the cost benefits that we've put in place on the back end as well.

    我們在後端投入了大量資金來改善成本結構。我認為一旦我們擺脫了疫情的影響——或者應該說,一旦我們度過了疫情難關——我們就會開始享受到我們在後端實施的許多成本效益。

  • I'd also note that when we look at our cost structure today and as we're looking into next year, all the way through the year, we think the cost reductions that we're seeing are very competitive with the industry. And the cost headwinds we're seeing are very similar to the cost headwinds that others within the industry, not only in memory, but also across the entire semiconductor space, are seeing. So we think this sets us up for, as Sanjay mentioned, very good profitability for next year. And I think that pretty much covers it.

    我還想指出,當我們審視目前的成本結構,並展望明年全年時,我們認為目前的成本削減幅度在業界極具競爭力。而且,我們面臨的成本挑戰與業內其他企業(不僅是記憶體領域,而是整個半導體領域)面臨的成本挑戰非常相似。因此,正如Sanjay所提到的,我們認為這將為我們明年取得非常好的獲利能力奠定基礎。我想以上就是全部內容了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Shannon Cross of Cross Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

  • The first question I had is with regard to pricing. Can you talk about some of the pricing dynamics, especially with the pullback in demand from the PC vendors? Are you expecting to see any more aggressive moves from your competitors, although given your comments on gross margin, I'm guessing the answer may be no?

    我的第一個問題是關於定價的。您能否談談定價策略,尤其是在個人電腦廠商需求下滑的情況下?您是否預期競爭對手會採取更激進的措施?不過,考慮到您之前提到的毛利率,我猜答案可能是否定的?

  • And then my second question is just with regard to your PC OEM partners. How are you tracking confidence that they're going to actually see the demand come through in second half of the year? Because I get a lot of questions from people about double ordering, even just from their end customers. So I'm just wondering if you've changed any methodology in how you're tracking what your partners are seeing or how you're providing guidance as you look out.

    我的第二個問題是關於你們的PC OEM夥伴。你們如何追蹤他們對下半年需求實際成長的信心?因為我經常收到關於重複訂購的諮詢,甚至包括他們終端客戶的諮詢。所以我想知道,你們在追蹤合作夥伴的需求情況或提供指導方面,是否改變了任何方法?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So with respect to pricing, we do not provide comments on pricing, but you can look at our FQ4 results. And of course, we reported that both for DRAM and NAND in FQ4, pricing increased. And you are right to note that our gross margin guidance for FQ1 is strong, in fact, same as Dave earlier pointed out, as our FQ4 guidance was at the time of our June call.

    因此,關於定價,我們不予置評,但您可以參考我們第四財季的業績報告。當然,我們報告稱,第四財季DRAM和NAND的價格均有所上漲。您說得對,我們對第一財季的毛利率預期非常強勁,事實上,正如Dave之前指出的那樣,我們在6月份的電話會議上對第四財季的預期也是如此。

  • And as you look at not only just FQ1, for fiscal year '22, we are projecting a record year for the company with solid profitability for the full year as well. And just remember that pricing is always a function of the mix overall as well.

    而且,不僅要看第一季業績,我們預計2022財年公司將創下歷史新高,全年獲利能力也將保持穩健。請記住,定價始終是整體產品組合的函數。

  • And with respect to your questions around PC, again, as I mentioned, the PC customers have been impacted by their own semiconductor shortages and their supply chain constraints. Their end demand -- their end user demand is very strong. In fact, they have unfulfilled backlog generally among these customers, which is quite extensive. And you know that even in the PC industry, while prices have gone up, if the customers are able to maintain a strong backlog that speaks to the end strong demand.

    關於您提出的PC問題,正如我之前提到的,PC客戶受到了半導體短缺和供應鏈限制的影響。他們的終端用戶需求非常強勁。事實上,這些客戶普遍存在大量未完成的訂單積壓。您也知道,即使在PC產業,儘管價格上漲,但如果客戶能夠保持充足的訂單積壓,就表示最終需求依然強勁。

  • It really is all driven by work-from-home, learn-from-home, the demand acceleration that has taken place through the pandemic will continue to support healthy environment for PC in calendar year '22 as well. Of course, in 2020 and 2021, PC has gone through a double-digit unit growth in -- on a calendar year basis. We expect that to moderate in calendar year '22 to perhaps from flat to low single-digit year-over-year growth in terms of PC units sold. Yet, it will be a healthy market. And again, driven by the trends such as the economy is opening, business is opening, workers coming back, that drives a greater mix of enterprise PCs, commercial PCs.

    這一切確實都源自於居家辦公和居家學習的趨勢,疫情期間需求的加速成長也將持續為2022年個人電腦市場的健康發展奠定基礎。當然,2020年和2021年個人電腦的銷量實現了兩位數的同比增長。我們預計2022年這一增速將放緩,或許會從持平降至個位數低點。即便如此,市場仍會維持健康發展。此外,隨著經濟復甦、企業復工復產、員工重返工作崗位等趨勢的推動,企業級個人電腦和商用個人電腦的市場份額也將進一步擴大。

  • So while some of the consumer PC such as Chromebooks, maybe compared to last year, maybe less in demand today, but the commercial PC demand is getting stronger as well. So overall, PC continues to be a healthy market, and we work closely with our customers. And today, they are really constrained by their supply chain shortages. And that's what is adjusting their purchases.

    因此,雖然像Chromebook這樣的消費級PC,與去年相比,如今的需求可能有所下降,但商用PC的需求卻在不斷增長。所以整體而言,PC市場依然保持健康發展,我們也與客戶保持密切的合作。目前,他們確實受到了供應鏈短缺的限制,而這正是他們調整採購策略的原因。

  • And as I said before, we believe this is going to be short-lived. And we look forward to continuing to support our customers with our products. And as we highlighted, our new technologies, new products, 1-alpha transitions, PC customers are qualifying them fast, and we are focused on delivering those in calendar year '22 as well as fiscal year '22 time frame.

    正如我之前所說,我們相信這種情況只是暫時的。我們期待繼續透過我們的產品為客戶提供支援。正如我們所強調的,我們的新技術、新產品以及1-alpha版本的過渡,PC客戶正在快速驗證,我們將專注於在2022年以及2022財年交付這些產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I was hoping you could provide a little bit more context around your fiscal '22 CapEx guidance of $11 billion to $12 billion. If you can kind of speak to WFE within that number for fiscal '22 and then differentiate between DRAM and NAND, that would be super helpful. And then just remind us, what kind of bit supply growth are you expecting purely from transitions in both DRAM and NAND as you think about calendar '22?

    我希望您能就2022財年110億至120億美元的資本支出預期提供更多背景資訊。如果您能談談2022財年WFE(晶圓廠設備)的支出狀況,並區分DRAM和NAND,那就太好了。另外,能否提醒我們一下,您預計2022年DRAM和NAND的轉換將帶來怎樣的位元供應成長?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay. So maybe I'll go through the CapEx for you. So as Sanjay mentioned and as I've reiterated, we expect CapEx to be in the $11 billion to $12 billion range. We were roughly a little bit less than $10 billion, $9.7 billion in fiscal '21. If you look at it by the elements of CapEx, we are going to invest more in pilot enablement this year. Last year was a relatively low year for us in terms of pilot enablement. So that's going to be a reasonable step-up in our CapEx spending.

    好的。那我來跟您介紹一下資本支出狀況。正如桑傑所提到的,我也重申過,我們預計資本支出將在110億至120億美元之間。 2021財年,我們的資本支出略低於100億美元,約97億美元。從資本支出的組成來看,今年我們將加大對試點計畫的支持。去年我們在試點計畫支援方面的投入相對較低。因此,今年的資本支出將會增加。

  • We feel CapEx equipment in DRAM will be down year-over-year. We think we made a good investment in fiscal '21, and we don't need to invest as much in fiscal '22. So that will be down. NAND will actually step up pretty meaningfully in fiscal '22 versus '21. If you remember, we took CapEx way down in fiscal '20, boosted up a little bit in '21. Now we're up to kind of a full investment level in '22 to support 176-layer. And that was caused because of this transition from floating gate to replacement gate when we made kind of a pause in terms of our CapEx investment to get the first line out at relatively minimal levels.

    我們認為DRAM設備的資本支出將會較去年同期下降。我們認為2021財年的投資已經足夠,因此2022財年無需投入那麼多資金。所以這部分支出將會減少。 NAND閃存在2022財年的投資額將比2021財年大幅成長。如果您還記得,我們​​在2020財年大幅削減了資本支出,並在2021財年略有回升。現在,我們在2022財年的投資水準已基本恢復到支援176層快閃記憶體的水準。這主要是由於我們從浮柵技術向替換柵技術過渡期間,為了以相對較低的成本推出首條生產線,我們暫停了部分資本支出。

  • Back-end, we should be up a bit in back-end spend as we make -- continue to make investments on the back-end to put that cost structure into a better place, as I intimated before. We've been making investments to improve our cost structure there. Clean room will be down a little modestly. And of course, we have EUV spending that also will impact our CapEx in fiscal '22 as well.

    後端方面,正如我之前提到的,我們會繼續增加後端投資,以優化成本結構,因此後端支出應該會略有增加。我們一直在進行投資以改善這方面的成本結構。潔淨室的支出會略為下降。當然,EUV(極紫外光刻)的支出也會影響我們2022財年的資本支出。

  • I mean, one other thing, just to remind you. So we will be kind of like 60% of our CapEx kind of weighted to the first half, probably 40% to the second half. So this was similar to what we saw in fiscal '21, we're likely to see in fiscal '22, which is kind of our -- have been our typical pattern over the last couple of years.

    我的意思是,還有一件事要提醒您。我們大約60%的資本支出會集中在上半年,40%會集中在下半年。這和我們2021財年的情況類似,我們預期2022財年也會如此,這基本上是我們過去幾年的典型模式。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • And Dave, the transitions, you guys talked about calendar '22 a bit strong mid to high teens on the DRAM side and approximately 30% on the NAND side in line with the industry. What portion of that growth are you guys expecting purely from transitions to 1-alpha and 176?

    Dave,關於過渡,你們之前提到2022年DRAM方面預計增長強勁,達到15%到10%左右,NAND方面預計增長約30%,與行業預期一致。你們預期這其中有多少成長完全來自於向1-alpha和176的過渡?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sorry, I didn't mean to forget that again. Yes. So it's all from node transitions. We're not adding wafers. We don't see, for the foreseeable future, adding wafers in either DRAM or NAND. In the next few years, we might be adding wafers in DRAM, as Sanjay mentioned. But NAND, we think we can continue with node transitions to support the growth.

    抱歉,我不是故意又忘了這件事。是的。所以這一切都源自於過程節點的過渡。我們並沒有增加晶圓產量。在可預見的未來,我們預計不會在DRAM或NAND領域增加晶圓產量。正如Sanjay所提到的,未來幾年我們可能會在DRAM領域增加晶圓產量。但對於NAND,我們認為可以繼續透過製程節點的過渡來支持成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers of Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about some -- a little bit more about the end demand dynamics, particularly around the data center. I'm curious as we move forward, how are you thinking about the bit demand profile of the data center in the server market? And what are you seeing as far as kind of the progression of -- kind of the progression of memory to compute ratio as we move forward to next-generation CPUs? I'm just curious on how you're rolling toward the expectations over the next year and that growth profile from a bit perspective.

    我想問一些關於終端需求動態的問題,特別是資料中心方面。我很好奇,隨著我們不斷向前發展,您如何看待伺服器市場中資料中心的位元需求曲線?隨著我們邁向下一代CPU,您如何看待記憶體與運算比率的發展趨勢?我很想了解您如何看待未來一年的預期以及從比特角度來看的成長曲線。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Within the data center, both for DRAM and NAND, demand trends would be strong. In fact, data center today has become the largest market for DRAM and NAND and will continue to grow faster than the average of the industry both for NAND and DRAM in the foreseeable future as well. So it's really being driven by the trend of AI, driving greater need for memory in addressing data-intensive workloads.

    在資料中心領域,無論是DRAM還是NAND閃存,需求趨勢都將十分強勁。事實上,資料中心如今已成為DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體最大的市場,並且在可預見的未來,其成長速度仍將高於行業平均水平。這主要得益於人工智慧的發展趨勢,人工智慧推動了對記憶體的更大需求,以滿足資料密集型工作負載的需求。

  • The BOM is going from about -- the memory and storage part of the BOM in the servers in data centers is going from about 30% a few years ago to around 40% now and going to 50% in a few years' time frame as well. And new architectures, new processors are enabling more cores, and there are -- more cores means more memory attached per core, therefore, greater gigabytes per server for DRAM as well as for NAND.

    在資料中心伺服器物料清單 (BOM) 中,記憶體和儲存部分的佔比已從幾年前的約 30% 成長到目前的約 40%,並有望在幾年內達到 50%。此外,新的架構和處理器支援更多核心,這意味著每個核心可以連接更多內存,從而提升每台伺服器的 DRAM 和 NAND 儲存容量(以 GB 為單位)。

  • DDR5 is a transition that will be occurring over the course of next couple of years as well as new CPUs get launched into production, and DDR5 is a higher bandwidth solution. It, of course, enables more value, higher performance in the applications. So that adoption will be going on. And over the course of the years, of course, CXL and HBM, these ultra-bandwidth solutions, these will also be continuing to grow in the data center space.

    DDR5 是一種過渡方案,將在未來幾年內隨著新型 CPU 的投產而逐步實現。 DDR5 是一種更高頻寬的解決方案,它自然能夠為應用程式帶來更高的價值和效能。因此,DDR5 的普及應用將會持續進行。同時,CXL 和 HBM 等超高頻寬解決方案也將在未來幾年繼續在資料中心領域發展壯大。

  • So average content per server for both DRAM and SSD will also be growing over 20% on a CAGR basis in each of these applications. So strong opportunity ahead, and Micron is very well placed with respect to our own product portfolio in terms of SSDs displacing HDDs, in terms of us providing higher density memory modules for server and data center applications.

    因此,在這些應用領域,DRAM 和 SSD 的每台伺服器平均容量都將以超過 20% 的複合年增長率成長。這意味著巨大的發展機遇,而美光憑藉其產品組合,在 SSD 取代 HDD 以及為伺服器和資料中心應用提供更高密度記憶體模組方面,佔據了非常有利的地位。

  • So as cloud gets bigger, the data center market gets bigger for us, and we are very well positioned. And this is an area we are focused on and continue to focus on expanding our product portfolio, particularly on the side of the data center SSDs. So we look at this as a strong growth opportunity for the industry as well as for Micron.

    隨著雲端運算規模的擴大,資料中心市場對我們來說也越來越重要,我們已佔據非常有利的地位。這是我們重點關注的領域,我們將繼續致力於擴展產品組合,尤其是在資料中心固態硬碟方面。因此,我們認為這對整個產業以及美光來說都是一個強勁的成長機會。

  • The value that memory and storage solutions providing in the space is really critical for the services that our cloud customers are providing. And just keep in mind that enterprise as well, while it grows at a lower rate compared to the cloud, we are seeing a resurgence in enterprise applications as well, driving for overall healthy demand trends in data center in calendar year '22, fiscal year '22 as well as beyond.

    記憶體和儲存解決方案在該領域提供的價值對於我們雲端客戶提供的服務至關重要。同時,也請記住,儘管企業級應用程式的成長速度低於雲,但我們也看到企業級應用程式正在復甦,這將推動資料中心在2022日曆年、2022財年以及未來維持整體健康的需求趨勢。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes. And then as a quick follow-up, Dave, I'm just curious, as you start to, this last quarter, implement some share repurchases, how do you think about the liquidity on the balance sheet or managing the company from a cash-on-hand perspective versus continuing to lean more in on share repurchase? Just how much cash do you need operationally to comfortably run the company?

    是的。戴夫,我還有一個後續問題,我很好奇,隨著你們在最後一個季度開始實施一些股票回購,你們是如何看待資產負債表上的流動性,或者說,從現金儲備的角度來管理公司,與繼續加大股票回購力度相比,你們是如何考慮的?你們需要多少現金才能讓公司正常運作?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • So we roughly are holding about mid-30s as a percent of revenue in terms liquidity, but $2.5 billion of that liquidity is our unused revolver. So cash is obviously less than that. We obviously have more liquidity than we need, which, of course, is a good opportunity as it relates to the buyback.

    因此,就流動資金而言,我們目前持有的流動資金約佔收入的30%左右,但其中25億美元是我們未使用的循環信貸額度。所以,實際現金顯然少於這個金額。顯然,我們的流動資金超過了實際所需,這當然為股票回購提供了良機。

  • As I mentioned, we're also going to receive $900 million from the sale of our Lehi fab. That also can be utilized for returns to shareholders. And we're expecting healthy free cash flow in fiscal '22 as well. And so we'll be able to leverage that. We've committed to return at least 50% of it in the form of dividend and buyback, mostly buyback. And we could obviously go higher than that.

    正如我之前提到的,我們也將從出售位於萊希的工廠中獲得9億美元。這筆資金也可以用於股東回報。此外,我們預計2022財年也將擁有健康的自由現金流。因此,我們可以充分利用這筆資金。我們承諾將至少50%的資金以股利和股票回購的形式返還給股東,其中大部分將用於股票回購。當然,我們也可以做得更多。

  • Our authorized plan, we still have $6 billion left in our authorized plan for repurchases. And if we see the stock be weak, which, of course, is how we viewed it in the fourth quarter, we'll be aggressive about buying back stock.

    我們核准的股票回購計畫中還有60億美元的剩餘資金。如果股價表現疲軟(當然,我們在第四季就是這麼認為的),我們將積極回購股票。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wonder if you could address what transitions going on in both DRAM and NAND to 1-alpha and RG2. Are there any issues that, that creates from a mix standpoint in terms of it seems like there's quite a bit of demand for the older products? Where are you in terms of getting qualified in the newer products? Just how is that affecting you guys?

    我想請您談談DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體向1-alpha和RG2過渡的情況。從產品組合的角度來看,這是否會造成一些問題?因為目前市場對老產品的需求似乎仍然很大。你們在新產品認證方面進展如何?這對你們有什麼影響?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Actually, we are doing very well with respect to ramping up these new nodes in production right on our plan. In fact, in terms of yields, ahead of our plans, I highlighted that the yields in these 176-layer NAND as well as 1-alpha DRAM have ramped 20% to 30% faster than our prior 1z generation node and the prior FG node -- the last FG node. So -- and customer qualifications actually are going very well with these nodes as well. As I mentioned earlier that we are already shipping out 1-alpha in the PC space as well as broadening its shipments to other parts of the markets as well.

    事實上,我們在按計劃推進這些新節點的量產方面進展非常順利。就良率而言,我們甚至提前完成了目標。我之前提到過,這些176層NAND快閃記憶體和1-alpha DRAM的良率提升速度比我們之前的1z代節點和上一代FG節點(包括上一代FG節點)快了20%到30%。此外,這些節點的客戶認證情況也非常好。正如我之前提到的,我們已經開始向PC市場交付1-alpha產品,並且正在逐步擴大其在其他市場的出貨量。

  • In fact, customers are working closely with us in qualifying these products. 1-alpha and 176-layer NAND-based mobile product went from just introduction to 1 million unit shipments in a record time, fastest ramp in the history of the company.

    事實上,客戶正與我們緊密合作,共同完成這些產品的認證。基於 1-alpha 和 176 層 NAND 快閃記憶體的行動產品從上市到出貨量突破 100 萬台,創下了公司歷史上最快的成長速度。

  • So overall, these nodes in production as well as in terms of deployment in the marketplace are doing very well for us. And of course, this is all baked into our guidance that we have provided in terms of our revenue as well as our cost expectations.

    總體而言,這些節點在生產環境和市場部署方面都表現出色。當然,這些都已納入我們先前提供的收入和成本預期指引中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Congratulations on the solid execution. Sanjay, you're sort of characterizing the current environment as relatively short-lived. Are we supposed to read into that, that as we go into the February quarter, your business might normally kind of buck normal seasonal headwinds?

    恭喜你們出色地完成了任務。桑傑,你似乎把目前的環境描述為相對短暫的。我們是不是應該由此推斷,到了二月的季度,你們的業務可能會像往常一樣擺脫季節性不利因素的影響?

  • And I guess, importantly, upturn to date, this memory cycle has been very different than prior memory cycles. Typically, you have sort of 8 quarters of unabated ASP growth and margin expansion. We're kind of at least plateauing here 3 quarters into it. What's different about this cycle? And I guess what makes you confident this is just a pause and not something more nefarious?

    而且我認為,更重要的是,就目前的復甦情況來看,本輪記憶產品週期與以往的記憶產品週期截然不同。通常情況下,平均售價和利潤率會連續成長八個季度。而我們現在至少在三個季度後就趨於平穩了。這個週期有何不同?是什麼讓您確信這只是暫時的停滯,而不是有什麼更險惡的預兆?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So with respect to the comment on the short-lived, just to be clear, what I was mentioning was that with respect to PC part of the market where our customers -- some of our customers in the PC market have experienced semiconductor shortages impacting their decisions on purchases of memory, that's what I was mentioning short-lived because their end user demand on PCs is still very strong and a lot of unmet demand that actually stretches the demand over time and makes the demand longer -- stronger for longer. But my comment regarding short-lived and addressing it in the next few months was related to the PC part of the market.

    關於「短期」的說法,我想澄清一下,我指的是PC市場,我們的一些PC客戶——部分客戶——由於半導體短缺影響了他們的記憶體採購決策。我之所以說“短期”,是因為他們的終端用戶對PC的需求仍然非常強勁,而且存在大量未滿足的需求,這實際上延長了需求的持續時間,使需求更加強勁。但我關於「短期」以及未來幾個月內將如何應對的評論,指的是PC市場。

  • And outside of that, in other markets, as we discussed earlier, we see strong demand trends, strong end-user demand trends. And of course, the supply chain shortages that are being experienced in PC are also being experienced in other parts of our markets as well by our customers, but of course, different customers are handling them in overall a different fashion. But the underlying demand trends driven by AI and 5G from data center, to the intelligent edge, to the user devices, are strong. They are secular in nature. COVID further accelerated it. Semiconductor supply chain shortages are only stretching that demand out as because some of the demand gets pushed out.

    除此之外,正如我們之前討論的,在其他市場,我們看到了強勁的需求趨勢,尤其是終端用戶需求。當然,PC領域目前面臨的供應鏈短缺問題,我們的客戶在其他市場也同樣面臨,但不同的客戶應對方式自然有所不同。然而,由人工智慧和5G驅動的、從資料中心到智慧邊緣再到用戶設備的潛在需求趨勢仍然強勁,並且具有長期性。新冠疫情進一步加速了這一趨勢。半導體供應鏈短缺只是拉長了這種需求,因為部分需求被推遲了。

  • So as I said, making those demand, growth drivers actually stronger for longer as well. So you can call it pent-up demand, but that's what I'm referring to. So on the demand side, things are here, overall, strong. On the supply chain aspects, of course, this is something that you know that the lead time in the semiconductors is long, and this will take several quarters to continue to improve.

    正如我所說,這些需求和成長驅動因素實際上會持續更長時間,而且更加強勁。你可以稱之為被壓抑的需求,但這就是我所指的。所以,從需求方面來看,整體而言,情況非常強勁。當然,在供應鏈方面,眾所周知,半導體產業的交貨週期很長,這需要幾個季度的時間才能持續改善。

  • Part of the semiconductor supply chain have already seen improvements. Our expectation is that these will continue to improve as well over the course of the coming quarters. And also keep in mind that our industry -- the memory industry, over the course of last couple of years, has tapped into the inventory to ship beyond the supply growth. And this is a phenomenon that has occurred across the industry. Certainly, you have seen that how Micron has brought its inventory to the leanest level in many years, in fact, below our target inventory levels. So this is something that is common to all suppliers in the memory industry.

    半導體供應鏈的部分環節已經有所改善。我們預計,未來幾季這些環節將持續改善。同時,也需要注意的是,在過去幾年裡,我們所在的記憶體產業一直在動用庫存來滿足不斷增長的供應需求。這種情況在整個行業中普遍存在。當然,您也看到了,美光科技已將其庫存降至多年來的最低水平,實際上低於我們的目標庫存水平。因此,這在記憶體行業的所有供應商中都是普遍現象。

  • And as we look ahead, the supply growth will not only have to meet the customer requirements, but it will also have to replenish the inventory that has been taken to such low levels. Inventory has to be replenished in order to make sure that we are able to service our customers and meet their demand requirements, which from time to time change. So these are all factors as well, very lean levels of inventory by the suppliers as well as need to replenish that inventory will drive for a healthy demand supply balance in calendar year '22 time frame as well.

    展望未來,供應成長不僅要滿足客戶需求,還要補充目前已降至極低水準的庫存。庫存必須補充,才能確保我們能夠服務客戶並滿足他們不時變化的需求。因此,供應商庫存水準極低以及需要補充庫存等因素,都將推動2022年期間供需維持健康平衡。

  • So yes, some of this in terms of our own supply chain shortages and some that are being experienced by our customers, we expect to be addressed over the course of time. And some of these shortages on the semiconductor ecosystem may take through 2022 time frame -- by the end of '22, maybe some of them will be relieved. However, we expect them to continue to be improving through the course of time all the way through calendar year '22.

    是的,我們自身供應鏈的一些短缺問題,以及客戶遇到的一些問題,預計都會隨著時間的推移而解決。半導體生物系統中的一些短缺問題可能會持續到2022年——到2022年底,或許部分問題會得到緩解。不過,我們預期這些問題會在整個2022年持續改善。

  • But the demand dynamics of the underlying strong drivers and the supply dynamics that I discussed, including the prudent CapEx investments that have gone on in the industry and the lean supply, all of this will lead to healthy supply-demand environment in the industry. So it's really the combination of the demand drivers and the suppliers' -- supply capabilities and shipment capabilities. That combination, I think, really sets us up well as an industry for revenue growth and strong profitability in '22. And of course, we have projected, based on our expectations that we will have record revenue in fiscal year '22 and solid profitability as well.

    但我之前討論過的,包括業界審慎的資本支出投資和精益化供應在內的潛在強勁需求動態和供應動態,都將促成產業內健康的供需環境。因此,關鍵在於需求驅動因素與供應商的供應能力和運輸能力的結合。我認為,這種結合將使我們整個產業在2022年實現營收成長和強勁獲利。當然,根據我們的預期,我們也預測2022財年將創下營收新高,並維持穩健的獲利能力。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Sanjay, those inventory comments were very helpful. I'm just kind of curious as a quick follow-on. Your guidance for bits to be down in the November quarter. How much is that a conscious decision by you to hold bits off the market to help maybe push in pricing? And how much of that is just being driven by there's no demand for those bits, and that's why bits is down?

    Sanjay,你對庫存的評論很有幫助。我還有一個後續問題想問。你之前預測11月的季度比特幣庫存會下降。這其中有多少是你刻意控制庫存、減少比特幣供應以壓低價格的?又有多少是因為市場對這些比特幣的需求不足才導致庫存下降?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, again, I think keep in mind that our inventory is very lean. It is at the leanest level and below our target levels, and that is impacting some of our ability to meet the demand as well. And overall, our projection of bits with respect to FQ1 is really a function of our own supply chain capabilities in terms of our inventory is and what we can ship at this point to the customers, certainly impacted by some of the component shortages, non-memory component shortages that we are seeing in the marketplace as well and our assessment of overall demand. And the main thing there really is around the PC where the -- some of the demand is impacted.

    再次強調,我們的庫存非常低,處於最低水平,低於目標水平,這也影響了我們滿足部分需求的能力。總的來說,我們對第一季的預測主要取決於我們自身的供應鏈能力,包括庫存狀況以及目前能夠向客戶出貨的數量。當然,這也受到市場上一些非記憶體組件短缺以及我們對整體需求評估的影響。其中最主要的問題是個人電腦領域,部分需求受到了影響。

  • But overall, when you look at our guidance for FQ1, which takes into account any aspects of seasonality as well, but the guidance for FQ1, at its midpoint, is about 32%, 33% higher than the same quarter last year. So our inventory capability is also overall impacting some of the ability for our customers in terms of what we can share.

    但整體而言,考慮到季節性因素,我們對第一季的業績預期中位數比去年同期高出約32%至33%。因此,我們的庫存能力也在一定程度上影響了我們能夠為客戶提供的資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

    最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西‧阿庫裡。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Appreciate that. Dave, I guess I had a question on gross margin. I wanted to go back to a question asked earlier. It's down only 100 basis points on your guidance, on like an 8% down revenue quarter. And it sounds like bits are only down modestly in both DRAM and NAND. So it sounds like the delta is probably pricing I would think more on the DRAM side.

    謝謝。戴夫,我有個關於毛利率的問題。我想回到之前問過的一個問題。你的預期只下降了100個基點,而營收卻下降了大約8%。聽起來DRAM和NAND的比特數下降幅度都不大。所以,我認為價格差異可能主要體現在DRAM方面。

  • And then somebody asked you about costs, and you said, well, costs aren't coming down very much. So I guess I'm trying to figure out how gross margin is so good. Is this going back to some of the mix comments that you made last quarter? It seems like a more sustainable trend that maybe people are missing. So I'm wondering if you can kind of flip that for us.

    然後有人問成本問題,你說成本並沒有大幅下降。所以我想弄清楚為什麼毛利率這麼高。這是否與你上個季度提到的產品組合有關?這似乎是一個更永續的趨勢,但可能很多人都忽略了。所以我想請你從另一個角度解釋。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Sure, Tim. Yes. So cost declines are going to be relatively muted, remember that. There will be some mix changes that might impact gross margins to bring it down somewhere within the range that we gave. Obviously, the rest is a function of pricing, and you have to infer what you can out of pricing. Obviously, if mix is the predominant factor in driving gross margins, pricing and cost will not be major factors in driving gross margins. Maybe that's the best way to say it.

    是的,提姆。沒錯。所以成本下降幅度會比較溫和,記住這一點。產品組合可能會有一些調整,從而影響毛利率,使其下降到我們先前給出的範圍內。顯然,其餘部分取決於定價,你需要根據定價來推斷。顯然,如果產品組合是影響毛利率的主要因素,那麼定價和成本就不會是影響毛利率的主要因素。也許這樣說比較好。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Got it. Got it. Okay. And then I guess just last thing. So just on the cost curve. So you reached -- you said you reached production crossover on 176 and on 1-alpha and 1z. So how much -- like what's the lag effect in terms of when that really starts to bend the cost curve in a favorable direction given that you've hit production crossover on those things?

    明白了,明白了,好的。然後我想就最後一個問題。關於成本曲線,您說您在 176、1-alpha 和 1z 上都達到了生產臨界點。那麼,考慮到這些產品已經達到生產臨界點,成本曲線真正開始向有利方向傾斜的滯後效應有多大?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Well, to be clear, 1-alpha and 1z, we've hit crossover. 176, we hit at the end of the year. They're already, by the way, benefiting us from a cost perspective. It's hard to see it maybe as much just because we're getting a little bit impacted obviously on the back end, which is impacting the cost declines. But next year, we do anticipate that both of them will drive good cost reductions for us on the front end side. So they will be good nodes for us in terms of cost structure. And I think we'll see that from a front end perspective every quarter.

    是的。嗯,說清楚點,1-alpha 和 1z 已經達到交叉點。 176 則在年底達到。順便說一句,它們已經開始從成本角度為我們帶來好處了。可能不太容易看出,因為我們顯然在後端受到了一些影響,這影響了成本的下降。但我們預計明年它們都將在前端為我們帶來顯著的成本降低。因此,就成本結構而言,它們將成為我們的重要節點。我認為每個季度我們都能從前端成本中看到這一點。

  • Again, I think the first couple of quarters, it may not be as noticeable in our cost per bit calculations because of this more of a headwind on the back end side of the cost structure. But after we get behind that, I think you'll see -- you see that show up on the cost per bit basis as well.

    我認為,在前幾個季度,由於這主要是成本結構後端的阻力,因此在我們的每位元成本計算中可能不會那麼明顯。但當我們克服了這些阻力之後,我認為你會看到——你也會在每比特成本方面看到這一點。

  • The only other factor will obviously be mix as well. And we're going to drive like heck to get our mix to be more -- to be a richer mix of higher-value products and -- which is always our goal. And of course, with higher value products, you get higher costs but higher profitability, higher gross margins. So that's a good strategy, but that also kind of distorts the picture and will distort the picture over the course of the year as well.

    另一個顯而易見的因素是產品組合。我們將竭盡全力調整產品組合,使其更加豐富,增加高價值產品的比例——這始終是我們的目標。當然,高價值產品意味著更高的成本,但同時也意味著更高的獲利能力和更高的毛利率。這的確是一個不錯的策略,但同時也造成了一定的偏差,而且這種偏差會持續到年底。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。