ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress during the first quarter 2025. Leading today's call will be our Group CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino.

大家下午好。我是安賽樂米塔爾投資者關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。感謝您參加本次電話會議，討論安賽樂米塔爾 2025 年第一季的業績和進展。主持今天電話會議的將是我們的集團財務長 Genuino Christino 先生。

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation, which was published this morning on our website However, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimers on Slide #19 of that presentation. As normal, Genuino will make some opening remarks before we move directly to the Q&A session. So the idea is that the call will last 40, 45 minutes. (Operator Instructions)

在我們開始之前，我想提一些日常事務。像往常一樣，我們不會瀏覽今天早上在我們網站上發布的結果演示文稿，但是，我想提請您注意該演示文稿第 19 張幻燈片上的免責聲明。像往常一樣，Genuino 會先發表一些開場白，然後我們直接進入問答環節。因此預計通話將持續 40 到 45 分鐘。（操作員指示）

Over to you, Genuino.

交給你了，Genuino。

Thanks, Daniel, and welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief. I want to focus this part on three key points. beginning with safety, which remains paramount for our company. We are now in the implementation phase of the recommendations of the safety audit we completed last year, and early progress has been encouraging.

謝謝，丹尼爾，歡迎大家，謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，我將簡短地發言。這部分我想重點談三個要點。首先是安全，這對我們公司來說仍然至關重要。我們目前正處於去年完成的安全審計建議的實施階段，早期進展令人鼓舞。

We anticipate that our journey to zero could take three years. The first year will be about setting the foundations for transformational change across the whole group. Years two and three will be about embedding these change and ensure consistency, discipline and results in every region. I can say with confidence that everyone across the company is working to become a fatality-free and zero serious injuries company as quickly as possible.

我們預計實現零排放可能需要三年時間。第一年將為整個集團的轉型變革奠定基礎。第二年和第三年將致力於嵌入這些變化並確保每個地區的一致性、紀律和成果。我可以自信地說，公司上下都在努力盡快成為一家零死亡事故、零重傷事故的公司。

Moving now to the financial performance, I want to highlight our strong operational performance and cash flows. Our operations are performing well, and they are performing consistently. The standout this quarter was our mining segment. Liberia achieved records for both production and shipments. And this is before the ramp-up of new capacity.

現在談談財務業績，我想強調我們強勁的營運業績和現金流。我們的營運表現良好，並且表現穩定。本季最突出的是我們的採礦部門。利比里亞的產量和出貨量均創下了紀錄。這還只是在新增產能增加之前。

In Europe, our mills are operating consistently across the cycle, and this is supporting good cost performance. In North America, having resolved the issues that impacted production less year in Mexico, this segment is now back to normalized operating levels.

在歐洲，我們的工廠在整個週期中持續運轉，這支持了良好的成本效益。在北美，由於解決了影響墨西哥產量下滑的問題，該部門目前已恢復正常的營運水準。

Our consistent operational performance has supported also resilient financial performance in a low cycle price environment. EBITDA per tonne of 116 in the quarter is double the level compared to previous cyclical lows. As we have alluded to multiple times in the recent years, ArcelorMittal is a transformed company. We have high-graded our asset portfolio by divesting higher-cost assets and acquired new assets that are well positioned to create value in all market environments. This has been well demonstrated over the recent quarters with structurally higher margins and greater earnings resilience.

我們穩定的營運績效也支持了低週期價格環境下穩健的財務表現。本季每噸 EBITDA 為 116 美元，是先前週期性低點的兩倍。正如我們近年來多次提到的，安賽樂米塔爾是一家轉型的公司。我們透過剝離高成本資產並收購能夠在所有市場環境中創造價值的新資產，對我們的資產組合進行了高評級。最近幾個季度，利潤率結構性提高和獲利彈性增強，充分證明了這一點。

Moving to cash flows. The first quarter always sees investments in working capital, and this year has been no different. But excluding the seasonal working capital investment and our discretionary growth CapEx, the underlying free cash flow for the quarter was around $700 million. This shows that even at the bottom of the cycle, we are generating good levels of cash flows. That gives us confidence to invest to support our strategic priorities as well as consistently return capital to shareholders.

轉向現金流。第一季總是會出現營運資本投資，今年也不例外。但不包括季節性營運資本投資和可自由支配的成長資本支出，本季的基本自由現金流約為 7 億美元。這表明，即使在周期的底部，我們仍能產生良好的現金流水準。這使我們有信心進行投資以支持我們的策略重點並持續向股東返還資本。

Lastly, I will touch on tariffs and the outlook. We are supportive of our efforts to address the excess capacity in the global steel industry and the unfair trade practices that result from it. As we said last quarter, we expect the impact of Section 232 tariffs on our North American business to be largely neutral. But on the positive side, we are seeing all the regions respond also. Europe has strengthened its safeguards.

最後，我將談談關稅和前景。我們支持我們為解決全球鋼鐵業產能過剩以及由此產生的不公平貿易行為所做的努力。正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計第 232 條關稅對我們北美業務的影響基本上是中性的。但從積極的一面來看，我們看到所有地區也都做出了回應。歐洲已加強其保障措施。

India has introduced new safeguards. Ultimately, ArcelorMittal is well positioned to benefit from the continued push to create a level playing field in terms of trade.

印度已推出新的保障措施。最終，安賽樂米塔爾將受益於持續推動建立公平的貿易競爭環境。

On the outlook, we said last quarter that the impact of Section 232 tariffs on our North American business should be broadly neutral. And including the benefits of higher prices to our Calvert joint venture, this remains our expectations. Encouragingly, spreads have recovered from unsustainably low levels, and this will be a strong support for results near term. As a result, Q2 EBITDA should be clearly better than the first quarter.

就前景而言，我們在上個季度表示，第 232 條關稅對我們北美業務的影響應該大致是中性的。並且包括我們卡爾弗特合資企業價格上漲帶來的好處，這仍然是我們的預期。令人鼓舞的是，利差已從不可持續的低水準回升，這將對近期業績提供強有力的支持。因此，第二季的 EBITDA 應該明顯優於第一季。

What is more uncertainty is the impact of tariffs we will have on demand. Customers clearly are asking themselves the same question. What I can say today is that our order book remains healthy, but this is a risk that we are monitoring very closely, and our business are prepared to adapt as necessary.

更不確定的是關稅對需求的影響。顧客顯然也在問自己同樣的問題。我今天可以說的是，我們的訂單仍然健康，但這是我們正在密切監控的風險，我們的業務已準備好根據需要進行調整。

So to conclude my opening remarks, ArcelorMittal is in a strong position, both operationally and financially. Despite the macro uncertainties, we will be maintaining our strategic course, delivering our strategic growth agenda while simultaneously returning capital to our shareholders. Our growth projects have good momentum. The investments we have made -- we have been making for the past three years will contribute to a structurally higher EBITDA, EUR1.2 billion of which is expected to be captured over the next few years. The Liberia expansion project is on track and on budget, the commissioning of the new state-of-the-art EIF at Calvert is underway, and the development of our unique exposure to India is progressing to schedule, with the Phase 1 expansion at Hazira on schedule.

因此，總結我的開場白，安賽樂米塔爾在營運和財務方面都處於強勢地位。儘管存在宏觀不確定性，我們仍將堅持我們的策略方針，實施我們的策略成長議程，同時向股東返還資本。我們的成長項目勢頭良好。我們過去三年來所做的投資將有助於實現結構性更高的 EBITDA，預計未來幾年將實現 12 億歐元的 EBITDA。利比里亞擴建項目進展順利，預算也在預算之內，卡爾弗特最先進的新型 EIF 的調試正在進行中，我們在印度的獨特業務拓展也正在按計劃進行，哈茲拉第一階段的擴建工程也按計劃進行。

Our clearly defined capital return policy is working well and will continue. We have initiated a new long-term share buyback program through 2030. Returning capital to shareholders at the bottom of the cycle, while continuing to invest in growth is clear evidence of the progress ArcelorMittal has made and demonstrates what -- that our company can deliver value through all aspects of the steel cycle.

我們明確的資本回報政策運作良好並將持續下去。我們已經啟動了一項新的長期股票回購計劃，有效期至 2030 年。在周期底部向股東返還資本，同時繼續投資於成長，這清楚地證明了安賽樂米塔爾所取得的進步，並證明了我們公司可以透過鋼鐵週期的各個方面創造價值。

With that, Daniel, I believe we can go to Q&A.

丹尼爾，我想我們可以進入問答環節了。

Great. Thank you, Genuino. We have a queue developing already, but just let me reiterate those instructions. (Operator Instructions) So we will take the first question from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

偉大的。謝謝你，Genuino。我們已經有一個隊列了，但請允許我重申這些指示。（操作員指示）我們將回答摩根士丹利的阿蘭提出的第一個問題。

A couple of questions. Firstly, Genuino on the Q2 '25, you said you expected EBITDA to be clearly higher Q on Q. Do you mind giving us the usual building blocks by division for the second quarter? And have you seen the full benefit of falling met coal prices? Or do lags suggest that we have to wait until Q3 before seeing the full benefit?

有幾個問題。首先，關於 Genuino 2025 年第二季的數據，您曾表示預計 EBITDA 將比去年同期明顯上升。您介意提供我們第二季各部門的常規構成要素嗎？您是否已經看到了煤炭價格下跌帶來的全部好處？或者滯後是否意味著我們必須等到第三季才能看到全部好處？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. So I believe that in Q2, as I said, what is really encouraging is what we saw during -- developing during the first quarter, right? So we saw trade actions in Europe, we saw spreads recovering nicely, I would say. And as we were saying, the level of spreads in Europe were extremely weak in the second half of last year, beginning of this year, recovering nicely during the quarter. So that will provide strong support to our results in quarter 2.

是的。所以我相信，正如我所說，在第二季度，真正令人鼓舞的是我們在第一季看到的發展情況，對嗎？因此，我想說，我們看到了歐洲的貿易行動，我們看到了利差的良好恢復。正如我們所說，去年下半年和今年年初，歐洲的利差水平非常弱，但在本季度得到了良好的恢復。這將為我們第二季的業績提供強有力的支持。

I will ask Daniel to walk you through the moving parts that we usually do. But that's going to be a strong support. And in terms of coal, I mean, as you know, because of the weighted average cost that we have, we are still working through the high cost that we had are still at the beginning of beginning of 2024, the first half of '24, we are still still some of that, that we are working through. So we'll continue to see some support, some core support, but I would say that is more modest. So Daniel, do you want to cover the moving parts?

我會讓丹尼爾向您介紹我們通常會做的活動部分。但這將會是一個強而有力的支持。就煤炭而言，我的意思是，如你所知，由於我們的加權平均成本，我們仍在努力解決 2024 年初、24 年上半年的高成本問題，我們仍在努力解決其中的一些問題。因此，我們將繼續看到一些支持，一些核心支持，但我想說的是，這種支持更為溫和。那麼丹尼爾，你想介紹一下活動部件嗎？

Yes. Sure, Genuino. I think to focus your attention on the key themes for the second quarter. But as Genuino said, we'll support the results in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. And so I think the key themes will be higher volumes.

是的。當然，Genuino。我認為應該把注意力集中在第二季的關鍵主題上。但正如 Genuino 所說，我們將支持第二季相對於第一季的業績。因此我認為關鍵主題是更高的銷售量。

And there, I'm specifically talking about a seasonal recovery in Brazil and also higher volumes in Ukraine. And then a positive price cost effect, and you'll really see that coming through in Europe given the dynamics that Genuino just talked about. So we've had some good momentum within Europe. We've had the new safeguards that's really helped to improve market sentiment and spreads have benefited from that sentiment. So we'll see a positive price cost effect in Europe, and you should also expect some improved results in the India and JV section.

我特別談到了巴西的季節性復甦以及烏克蘭的產量增加。然後是正面的價格成本效應，考慮到 Genuino 剛才談到的動態，你真的會看到這種效應在歐洲顯現出來。因此，我們在歐洲取得了一些良好的發展勢頭。我們採取了新的保障措施，這確實有助於改善市場情緒，利差也因這種情緒而受益。因此，我們將看到歐洲的正面價格成本效應，並且您還應該預期印度和合資企業部分的結果會有所改善。

My second question is on North America. Do you know if the new automotive component exemptions that have been recently announced from auto tariffs are applicable to steel. And on that question as well on the tariff absorption in the US, do you absorb the tariff costs at the group level? Or is it at the Calvert level?

我的第二個問題是關於北美的。您是否知道最近宣布的汽車關稅新汽車零件豁免是否適用於鋼鐵。關於這個問題以及美國的關稅吸收，你們是否在集團層級吸收關稅成本？還是卡爾弗特級的？

Yes, let me -- North America, as we said last quarter and I was covering my opening remarks. So we still believe that the impact of Section 232 tariffs will be neutral, right? And the way for you to see that we will be to combine the results that you're going to see in our North America segment, plus the results of Calvert that we disclosed -- that we disclose separately, right? Regarding the tariffs on auto parts, I mean our understanding is that there is no stacking. So that's our understanding.

是的，讓我——北美，正如我們上個季度所說的那樣，我正在做開場白。所以我們仍然相信第 232 條關稅的影響將是中性的，對嗎？而您要知道，我們將把北美分部的結果與我們單獨披露的 Calvert 的結果結合起來，對嗎？關於汽車零件的關稅，我的意思是我們的理解是不存在疊加的。這就是我們的理解。

There is still some clarification that needs to happen when it comes to derivative products. I think there is still some work that needs to be done there to clarify what is really covered by that, but that's how we are seeing right now.

對於衍生產品，仍有一些需要澄清的地方。我認為還需要做一些工作來澄清其真正涵蓋的內容，但這就是我們現在看到的。

So we'll move to the next question from Ephrem at Citigroup.

那我們來看看花旗集團的 Ephrem 提出的下一個問題。

So the question is on sort of the new greenfield steel plant in India, in the East Coast, in the Vishakhapatnam. The Indian press is quoting a time line of 2029 for Phase 1 and 2033 for Phase 2. I appreciate it's early days with land acquisition being started, et cetera, but would those timelines quoted be realistic in our view, given the challenges with in India? And related to that, anything special from the government, either in terms of facilitating against bottlenecks like land acquisition, and again, any special fiscal terms? And is the decision on the site kind of really driven by the fact that it's the end of the iron ore slurry pipeline?

所以問題是關於印度東海岸維沙卡帕特南的新建鋼鐵廠。印度媒體稱，第一階段的時間表是 2029 年，第二階段的時間表是 2033 年。我知道現在開始土地徵用等工作還為時過早，但考慮到印度面臨的挑戰，我們認為這些時間表是否切合實際？與此相關，政府是否採取了任何特殊措施，例如緩解土地徵用等瓶頸問題，或有什麼特殊的財政條款？而關於該地點的決定是否真的是因為這裡是鐵礦石漿管道的終點？

Or is there anything else there?

或者那裡還有別的東西嗎？

Yes. So this is, of course, a very exciting development for us for the company. It opens really a new avenue for growth in India. So we're excited about that. But of course, it's still early days.

是的。因此，這對我們公司來說當然是一個非常令人興奮的發展。它確實為印度的成長開闢了一條新的道路。所以我們對此感到很興奮。但當然，現在還為時過早。

So we've been working very closely with the government to have access to this piece of land. As you know, in India, this is extremely difficult. So it's a significant piece of land with access to the seafront. So it's really ideal. We have -- we are going to be also closer to the customers in that part of the country, access to iron ore.

因此，我們一直與政府密切合作，以獲得這塊土地的使用權。眾所周知，在印度，這是極其困難的。所以這是一塊可以通往海濱的重要土地。所以真的很理想。我們也將更貼近該地區的客戶，取得鐵礦石。

As you said, we have the our pipelines there, a slurry pipeline. So I think the setup is very good. So -- but -- and we -- where we are now at this stage is -- so we're going to be working now also to obtain the environmental licenses. And then, of course, after that follows the normal engineering work. And I'm sure we're going to have the opportunity to update you more as we progress.

正如你所說，我們在那裡有我們的管道，一條泥漿管道。所以我認為這個設定非常好。所以 — — 但是 — — 我們 — — 我們現在所處的階段是 — — 所以我們現在也要努力取得環境許可證。當然，之後就是正常的工程工作。我相信隨著工作的進展，我們將有機會向大家提供更多最新資訊。

I think it's early days. But I think what is very good and is the fact that we could obtain this plant.

我認為現在還為時過早。但我認為非常好的是，我們能夠獲得這種植物。

Sorry. If I can have a quick follow-up question. I mean, you've taken the impairment on Monlevade, expansion. And you announced that not just you have not stopped the plant, but you've kind of canceled the project, the expansion project. Can you give us some background as to why you've kind of canceled the project after being probably what, 20% through the project?

對不起。如果我可以快速問一個後續問題。我的意思是，你已經承擔了 Monlevade 擴張的損失。您宣布，您不僅沒有停止工廠的生產，而且還取消了該項目，即擴建項目。您能否向我們介紹一下背景，說明為什麼在專案進行到 20% 左右後就取消了該專案？

Yes. Well, I think what we are trying to do is really we believe that -- so that project was on hold for a number of years. And as we embarked again on the engineering work, we saw that the costs would be too high, would be prohibitive. And the teams are doing a good job exploring different optionalities -- options to continue to develop the business in Brazil, so which should be more cost effective. So that's why I think it was a combination of the high cost and the possibility that we have -- with the footprint that we have to come up with options that might be more cost efficient.

是的。嗯，我認為我們正在嘗試做的是我們真正相信這一點——所以該項目被擱置了好幾年。當我們再次著手工程工作時，我們發現成本太高，令人難以承受。團隊正在積極探索不同的選擇—繼續發展巴西業務的選擇，這樣應該更具成本效益。所以我認為這是高成本和我們擁有的可能性的結合——我們必須想出更具成本效益的選擇。

And just to confident that -- sorry. And just to remind everybody that, that was a decision taken last quarter. So that was a new event for this first quarter. It was a decision taken in Q4 and the impairment was taken in Q4.

並且只是確信——抱歉。只是想提醒大家，這是上季做出的決定。所以這是第一季的一個新事件。這是在第四季度做出的決定，減損也是在第四季產生的。

So we'll move to the next question from Tom at Barclays.

那我們來回答巴克萊銀行的湯姆提出的下一個問題。

Two for me as well, please. The first one just on North America. You -- I noticed you didn't talk too much about it around volumes or price cost. I know there's a lot of moving parts around tariffs. But when you say the impact of Section 232 is going to be largely neutral to you.

也給我兩份。第一個僅在北美。您——我注意到您沒有談論太多有關數量或價格成本的問題。我知道關稅方面有很多變動因素。但是當您說第 232 條的影響對您來說基本上是中性的。

Is that a guide -- or is that a comment towards earnings being quite stable in North America into Q2? Or are there other moving parts like Mexico domestic pricing, kind of the domestic pricing volumes, any sort of main comments around those would be interesting.

這是一個指導嗎？或者這是對北美第二季收益相當穩定的評論？或者是否存在其他變動因素，例如墨西哥國內定價、國內定價量，圍繞這些因素的任何主要評論都會很有趣。

Yes. So maybe I can touch on that, Daniel can complement. But I think what we are saying is that in terms of volumes, when we look at our order book, it remains quite healthy, right? And that is across all our customers in North America. So order books have -- so our expectation is to see our average price is what you see reported also to move slightly up, not as much as you would expect for few US company because, of course, we also have operations in Canada and met coal prices have not really gone to the same levels as what we can see today in the US, right?

是的。所以也許我可以談談這一點，丹尼爾可以補充一下。但我認為，就交易量而言，當我們查看訂單簿時，它仍然相當健康，對嗎？這適用於我們在北美的所有客戶。因此訂單簿有 - 所以我們期望看到我們的平均價格正如您所看到的報告那樣略有上漲，但不像您對一些美國公司的預期那樣上漲，因為當然，我們在加拿大也有業務，而且煤炭價格還沒有真正達到我們今天在美國看到的水平，對嗎？

So we have -- we are guiding for volumes in North America to be stable. Prices to be to be slightly up. But then you're going to see, of course, the impact of tariffs, right? So it's not so much in quarter 1, but then we will have the full impact of the tariffs in our results in quarter 2, but then again, you will see offset an offset at the level of Calvert. That's why we are guiding for you to really look at the business on a combined basis, look at NAFTA, but look also at Calvert.

因此，我們預計北美的銷量將保持穩定。價格將略微上漲。但當然，你會看到關稅的影響，對吧？因此，第一季的影響並不大，但關稅將在第二季的業績中全面顯現，但話又說回來，你會看到卡爾弗特層面的抵銷。這就是為什麼我們要指導您真正從綜合的角度來看待業務，看看北美自由貿易協定，也要看看卡爾弗特。

Okay. So I think that was very comprehensive, Genuino. So the only thing I would just reiterate is that the overall message here has not changed. So same message that we gave last quarter.

好的。所以我認為這非常全面，Genuino。所以我只想重申的是，這裡的整體訊息沒有改變。與我們上個季度傳達的訊息相同。

Understood. And then the other question, just on Europe. There was a potential 600 job cuts in France and 1,400 total in Europe. Can I just ask how this would potentially change your footprint? Is that all going to be finishing downstream?

明白了。另一個問題是關於歐洲的。法國可能裁員 600 人，歐洲可能裁員 1,400 人。我可以問一下這可能會如何改變你的足跡嗎？這一切都會在下游完成嗎？

And does that mean anything for your upstream footprint in Europe? Because I know you've had a furnace basically idle for quite a while now in France, you've been juggling a little bit with maintenance, but it's clearly not been running at full utilization. Do we expect a permanent idling? And are these -- are these cuts kind of linked or to European policy, right, around energy provision and effect of trade defenses that I think you mentioned in the press release? Yes, these job cuts at all linked to that?

這對您在歐洲的上游足跡有何意義？因為我知道，在法國，你們的熔爐基本上已經閒置了相當長一段時間，你們一直在忙著維護，但顯然它還沒有得到充分利用。我們是否預期會出現永久空轉？這些削減是否與歐洲政策有關，例如能源供應和貿易保護的影響，我記得您在新聞稿中提到？是的，這些裁員與此有關嗎？

Yes. Well, I would say that what we have seen this quarter is quite encouraging in terms of the new steel action plan. So all the points that have been addressed at least conceptually by the commission, it's all very, very positive, I would say. The message on CBAM, trade access to energy -- so -- and then of course, when you combine that with the actions that are already impacting us today, which is the strengthening of safeguards -- on some exporters, so good news, right? So now I think we are in the stage where we have to see the concrete actions linked to an execution of the steel action plan.

是的。嗯，我想說，就新鋼鐵行動計畫而言，我們本季看到的情況相當令人鼓舞。因此，我想說，委員會至少在概念上解決的所有問題都是非常非常積極的。關於 CBAM 的資訊、能源貿易准入——所以——當然，當你把它與今天已經對我們產生影響的行動結合起來時，那就是加強對一些出口國的保障措施，所以這是好消息，對吧？所以現在我認為我們正處於必須看到與執行鋼鐵行動計劃相關的具體行動的階段。

So we have no plans here to change. We are not looking at a change in our footprint in Europe. So it all remains. And I think the momentum in Europe, I would say, it's more positive than it was a couple of months ago.

所以我們沒有改變的計劃。我們不希望改變我們在歐洲的足跡。所以一切都保留了下來。我認為歐洲的發展勢頭比幾個月前更加積極。

So we'll move now to a question from Matt at Goldman Sachs.

現在我們來回答高盛的馬特提出的問題。

So just another one on Canada and Mexico and the auto heading into the US. You mentioned your order book is fine. But can you just confirm you've actually been able to move higher priced volumes into the US? And then just that fully captured the duty. And just on the Trump tariff relief for auto -- the auto industry, what are you hearing from your customers?

這只是關於加拿大、墨西哥和開往美國的汽車的另一個問題。您提到您的訂單簿很好。但您能否確認您確實能夠將高價產品運往美國？然後就完全掌握了職責。關於川普對汽車產業的關稅減免，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？

And I'll follow up with another question.

我接下來會問另一個問題。

Yes. I would just say, that outflows, they have not changed. They continue to be exactly the same. And each contract, it's -- they have their own clause and conditions. So what I would say to you is that we are, of course, honoring all these contracts.

是的。我只想說，資金流出並沒有改變。它們仍然保持完全相同。每份合約都有自己的條款和條件。所以我想告訴你的是，我們當然會履行所有這些合約。

So in some cases, we are the record. So we will pay the tariffs in some of the cases, our customers. So it really varies. But I think what is important is that given the quality of the asset we have in Canada, Mexico, US, so we are able to keep supplying the OEMs, and we are not seeing any change there, right? And as I said, the order book remains good, healthy.

所以在某些情況下，我們就是記錄。因此，在某些情況下，我們會向我們的客戶支付關稅。所以它確實存在差異。但我認為重要的是，鑑於我們在加拿大、墨西哥和美國的資產質量，我們能夠繼續向原始設備製造商供貨，而且我們沒有看到那裡發生任何變化，對嗎？正如我所說，訂單情況仍然良好、健康。

And it's probably early days, right? But we -- so what we are seeing right now, it's, I would say, stable.

現在可能還為時過早，對吧？但是我們——所以我們現在看到的是，我想說，是穩定的。

That's great. And then just on Mittal. Obviously, you've touched on that this is helping on spreads, but we're seeing some miners get into a bit of distress, would -- also Mittal be open to acquiring high-quality steelmaking coal production for future supply security?

那太棒了。接下來是米塔爾。顯然，您已經提到這有助於縮小價差，但我們看到一些礦業公司陷入了困境，米塔爾是否也願意收購高品質的煉鋼煤產量以確保未來的供應安全？

Matt, it's not something that, as you know, we don't really comment on M&A, and it's not something that is high on our agenda at this point.

馬特，正如你所知，我們並沒有真正對併購發表評論，這也不是我們目前的首要議題。

So we'll take the next question from Patrick at Bank of America.

那我們將回答美國銀行的派崔克提出的下一個問題。

Maybe the first question, I just -- can you just talk us through the sort of the change in the technical aspects of the share buyback? So I appreciate there's no change to the capital allocation policy, but the previous one was was 85 million shares over two years, and now it's authorization for 85 million shares, but there's 10 million shares tranche. Can you just talk us through kind of the thinking how and why it's changed effectively? That's the first question.

或許第一個問題是－您能否向我們介紹一下股票回購技術的變化？因此，我很欣賞資本配置政策沒有變化，但先前的政策是兩年內發行 8,500 萬股，現在授權發行 8,500 萬股，但有 1,000 萬股份額。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下它是如何以及為何有效改變的？這是第一個問題。

Do you want to talk about it, Daniel?

你想談談這個嗎，丹尼爾？

Yes, sure, Genuino. So I think, look, -- the fact is we've done 9 separate share buybacks since we started the buyback program in September of 2020. So the -- so it's clear that our policy is clear, and the application of our policy is also very clear. So we're extremely happy with what we've been able to achieve. We've been able to buy back 38% of the company at obviously attractive points of the cycle at a good average price level.

是的，當然，Genuino。所以我認為，事實上，自 2020 年 9 月啟動回購計畫以來，我們已經進行了 9 次單獨的股票回購。所以，很明顯我們的政策很明確，而且我們的政策應用也很明確。因此，我們對所取得的成就感到非常高興。我們已經能夠在周期中明顯具有吸引力的點位以良好的平均價格水平回購該公司 38% 的股份。

So like you said in your question, the policy is unchanged. We will continue to return a minimum 50% of post-dividend cash flow to shareholders through the buyback. But the idea is that -- we've now made this announcement. It's through 2030. We will execute the first tranche of 10 million shares, and then we'll start the next tranche of 10 million shares straight after that.

所以就像您在問題中所說的那樣，政策沒有改變。我們將繼續透過回購向股東返還至少 50% 的股利後現金流。但我們的想法是——我們現在已經宣布了這個消息。到 2030 年為止。我們將執行第一批 1000 萬股，然後立即開始下一批 1000 萬股。

So you can kind of forget about that side of things, and just look at the policy, look at your expectations for the business, the cash flow that we're going to generate, and that should then form your expectations for how many shares we're going to be buying back. Hopefully, that's clear.

因此，你可以忘記這方面的事情，只需看看政策，看看你對業務的期望，我們將產生的現金流，然後這些就應該形成你對我們將回購多少股票的預期。希望這是清楚的。

Yes. That is. And then the second question, I wanted to ask a little bit on the Liberia iron ore expansion. I mean I think last year, you shipped 3.5 million tonnes from -- and obviously, it's picking up to 10 million and then going to capacity of 20 million. I mean, does that really only add $450 million additional EBITDA.

是的。那是。第二個問題，我想問利比里亞鐵礦石擴張的問題。我的意思是，我認為去年你們的出貨量為 350 萬噸——顯然，現在的出貨量將上升到 1000 萬噸，然後達到 2000 萬噸的產能。我的意思是，這真的只增加了 4.5 億美元的 EBITDA 嗎？

I mean, if I look at the long-term margins of the mining division, it's sort of closer to 50% on EBITDA. And so sort of additional 16.5 million tonnes, it kind of implying at current prices only about a 25%, 26% margin. So yes, I mean, are you being conservative around pricing? Is it higher cost because of the concentrating or because of additional -- is there anything -- any reason why it should be lower margin than the balance of your mining division effectively?

我的意思是，如果我看一下採礦部門的長期利潤率，它的 EBITDA 利潤率接近 50%。因此，額外的 1650 萬噸，以當前價格計算，僅意味著約 25% 或 26% 的利潤率。是的，我的意思是，您在定價方面是否持保守態度？成本較高是因為集中還是因為其他原因——有什麼原因導致它的利潤率低於採礦部門的餘額？

Yes. So first of all, I think the project is going extremely well as we alluded to at the beginning, in our opening remarks. So we are actually about to really start the first line, which is also quite exciting. And we are talking about here very high-quality material, Patrick. So the $450 million that we have been quoting, that's really based on long-term prices, right?

是的。首先，我認為該專案進展非常順利，正如我們在開場白中提到的那樣。所以我們實際上即將真正開始第一條線路，這也是相當令人興奮的。我們這裡討論的是高品質的材料，派崔克。那麼，我們一直引用的 4.5 億美元實際上是基於長期價格的，對嗎？

And that's, as we know, lower than what we have been enjoying in recent quarters, so in this $100 range. So the profit is based on the long-term prices, which is much lower. So to the extent that, of course, prices remain where they are, then we should be able to print higher results from Liberia. But there is no reason to assume that the quality of the material will be inferior on the contrary. We believe that it's going to be a very high-quality product.

我們知道，這比最近幾季的水平要低，也就是在 100 美元的範圍內。因此利潤是基於長期價格的，而長期價格則低得多。因此，只要價格維持現狀，我們就應該能夠從利比里亞獲得更高的業績。但沒有理由認為材料的品質反而會變差。我們相信這將會是一款非常高品質的產品。

So we're very excited about that.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

Yes. It's quite transformational. So you get the the economies of scale, have a much bigger operation and that largely neutralizes the cost of concentration, and then we get a richer product, and we'll be able to capture a richer price for that material in the market. So just to confirm what Genuino was saying, the guidance that we've given for this project to EUR450 million at capacity, that's very conservative. It's based on conservative long-run pricing.

是的。這是相當具有變革意義的。因此，您可以獲得規模經濟，擁有更大的營運規模，這在很大程度上抵消了濃縮成本，然後我們獲得了更豐富的產品，並且能夠在市場上為該材料獲得更高的價格。因此，只是為了確認 Genuino 所說的話，我們為該專案提供的指導是 4.5 億歐元的產能，這是非常保守的。它是基於保守的長期定價。

But even based on that, you can see the very attractive economics of the project, and the good returns on the investment that we're making. But should prices hold anything like where they are today, then there would be quite significant upside to that $450 million number.

但即使基於此，您也可以看到該項目極具吸引力的經濟效益，以及我們所做的投資的良好回報。但如果價格維持在目前的水平，那麼 4.5 億美元這數字將具有相當大的上漲空間。

So we will move to the next question, which should be from Cole at Jefferies.

因此我們將進入下一個問題，該問題應該來自 Jefferies 的 Cole。

I just like some color on how you're seeing the European market developing here. I mean margins are looking a lot better into the second quarter. We've got a lot of safeguards. How do you -- how are you looking at your mill system to either increase volumes if your order books remain healthy? And secondly, how do you think some of the players that have idle capacity or have some challenges at the moment might react to the more favorable spreads into the second quarter?

我只是想了解您如何看待歐洲市場的發展。我的意思是第二季的利潤率看起來好多了。我們有很多保障措施。如果您的訂單保持健康，您如何看待您的工廠系統以增加產量？其次，您認為一些擁有閒置產能或目前面臨一些挑戰的參與者會如何應對第二季更有利的利差？

Yes. So what I would say is that -- I think in terms of demand in Europe, as we have been discussing, and you have our forecast for the year, which remains unchanged is -- and we have a forecast of about neutral to about 2% increase. I think what is really helping and supporting the demand right now is the change that we talked about in terms of trade. So we started to see some reduction of imports, which is extremely positive. We will not see the full impact of the new trade actions until quarter 3 because that's how there is a bit of a transition there.

是的。所以我想說的是——我認為就歐洲的需求而言，正如我們一直在討論的那樣，我們對今年的預測保持不變——我們預測的增長幅度在中性到 2% 左右。我認為現在真正幫助和支持需求的是我們在貿易方面談到的變化。因此，我們開始看到進口量減少，這是非常積極的。我們要到第三季才能看到新貿易行動的全部影響，因為那裡存在一點轉變。

So our expectation is that imports will continue to trend down, of course, to be seen, but that's our expectation, allowing then domestic players to regain some market share that was lost with surge exports from China and other countries. So that's very good. So we retain, of course, as part of our operations, the ability to regain market share. So we are not constrained there. And regarding capacity that is idle, I would just say that given the system in Europe, it's not so easy for people to bring back capacity because then they will incur very high CO2 costs as well.

因此，我們預計進口量將繼續呈下降趨勢，當然，這還有待觀察，但這是我們的預期，這將使國內企業重新獲得因中國和其他國家出口激增而失去的部分市場份額。這非常好。因此，作為我們營運的一部分，我們當然保留了重新獲得市場份額的能力。所以我們在那裡不受限制。至於閒置產能，我只想說，考慮到歐洲的體系，人們不太容易恢復產能，因為那樣的話他們也會承擔非常高的二氧化碳成本。

So that's just something to keep in the back of your mind. But of course, we cannot comment on what orders will do, but I would say that what we can see right now is quite positive.

所以這只是需要你牢記在心的事。當然，我們無法評論訂單會產生什麼影響，但我想說，我們現在看到的情況是相當積極的。

And then maybe just following on that last point around the the costs for CO2 to restart idle capacity? Have you heard anecdotically how competitors might be facing in kind of high-yield debt markets just considering they're a little bit more challenging relating to potentially starting up some of that capacity? Will it be more challenging for them to get the financing and start up some of the capacity in your view?

然後也許只是繼續討論最後一點，關於重啟閒置產能的二氧化碳成本？您是否聽說過競爭對手在高收益債務市場中可能面臨的情況，只是因為他們在啟動部分產能方面面臨更大的挑戰？您認為，獲得融資和啟動部分產能對他們來說是否會更具挑戰性？

Well, I'm not going to comment. We don't see that there is a lot of volatility in the markets, right? So the markets were kind of closed for high yield. But I think that's just temporary, of course. So I think that's a question I'm afraid you're going to need to ask the other companies.

好吧，我不想發表評論。我們沒有看到市場出現太大的波動，對嗎？因此，高收益市場在某種程度上處於關閉狀態。但我當然認為這只是暫時的。所以我認為恐怕你需要向其他公司詢問這個問題。

I understand. And then just following up on the comment around India and JV sequentially improving into the second quarter, the US market is clear, considering the price dynamics with Calvert. But would you mind just giving some color on the dynamics impacting the India JV with the the safeguard actions for India?

我明白。然後，根據有關印度和合資企業在第二季度連續改善的評論，考慮到卡爾弗特的價格動態，美國市場很明朗。但是，您能否簡單介紹一下印度的保障措施對印度合資企業的影響？

Well, India is -- I think the story there is really intact, right? We continue to see good growth. So apparent steel consumption forecast remains the same. So we still expect a growth of about 7% this year. So that's extremely good.

嗯，印度——我認為那裡的故事確實完整無缺，對吧？我們繼續看到良好的成長。因此表觀鋼材消費量預測維持不變。所以我們仍然預期今年的成長率在7%左右。這非常好。

And as we discussed, so we have the safeguards now in place from beginning of April, which is supporting prices. We have already seen prices recovering from low levels that we had in quarter 1. So that should support the results of our JV in India aligned to the second quarter. And as we have also pointed to you in our release, so Q1, we had some maintenance work, which is now completed. So we're going to be back to full operations that should support costs as well.

正如我們所討論的，我們從 4 月初開始就採取了保障措施，以支持價格。我們已經看到價格從第一季的低點回升。因此，這應該支持我們在印度的合資企業與第二季度保持一致的業績。正如我們在第一季的發布中指出的那樣，我們進行了一些維護工作，現在已經完成。因此，我們將恢復全面運營，這也應該能夠支持成本。

So we are looking for an improvement in terms of profitability in India in quarter 2. And more importantly, as we have been discussing, is the progress on the projects going well. on track, which is also quite encouraging. So that's the dynamics in India that we are seeing right now.

因此，我們期待印度第二季的獲利能力有所改善。更重要的是，正如我們一直在討論的，專案進展順利。步入正軌，這也相當令人鼓舞。這就是我們現在看到的印度的動態。

So we will move to the next question now, which we'll take from Boris at Kepler Cheuvreux.

現在我們將進入下一個問題，這個問題由 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Boris 提出。

The first one is on the free cash flow. So the press release that you remain positive for free cash flow with a stable CapEx envelope, the incremental contribution from the strategic projects and some working capital optimization. Can you bring some details on working cap, just to help us in the modeling part? And second question is on China. China has been under pressure for some time now.

第一個是關於自由現金流。因此，新聞稿中表示，您對自由現金流保持樂觀態度，擁有穩定的資本支出範圍、策略項目的增量貢獻以及一些營運資本優化。您能否提供一些有關工作帽的細節，以幫助我們進行建模部分？第二個問題是關於中國的。一段時間以來，中國一直承受著壓力。

What do you expect -- do you see do you have any good reasons to expect some What's your view on that market where we have heard about potential production cuts?

您有何期待－您認為您是否有充分的理由期待一些？對於我們聽說的潛在減產市場，您有何看法？

Yes. So Boris, in terms of the working capital, we are keeping our message of the previous quarter as well, no change there. I mean, of course, the investment that you see in quarter 1 is seasonal. I mean, it happens every year. And our expectation is that for full year, we should still see the moving parts, but we should still see some release, but it's always difficult to be precise because there are, of course, many movie parts.

是的。因此，鮑里斯，就營運資金而言，我們也保留了上一季的訊息，沒有任何變化。我的意思是，當然，您在第一季看到的投資是季節性的。我的意思是，這種事每年都會發生。我們的預期是，全年我們仍然應該能看到一些活動部分，但我們仍然應該看到一些發行，但總是很難準確，因為當然有很多電影部分。

And a lot will depend on what happens really in the last couple of months of the year. But because of actions like we will have a reliance on in France in the second quarter. We're building slabs for that. So we'll be working through that. And as we also discussed at the very beginning of the call, we see some high cost coming from the first half of 2024 because of the weighted average cost.

很多事情都取決於今年最後幾個月真正發生的情況。但由於採取了類似行動，我們將在第二季依賴法國。我們正在為此建造樓板。所以我們會努力解決這個問題。正如我們在電話會議一開始就討論的那樣，由於加權平均成本，我們預計 2024 年上半年會出現一些高成本。

So we still believe that all in all, we will be in a position to release working capital this year, which is, of course, supportive for free cash flow. We should not forget that Liberia, the expansion in the second half, primarily, right, even though the performance in quarter 1 was really outstanding. But it's second half event, will support results in the second half. So that's why we feel comfortable and confident that the group will be generating free cash this year.

因此，我們仍然相信，總的來說，我們今年將能夠釋放營運資金，這當然有利於自由現金流。我們不應忘記利比里亞，主要是下半年的擴張，儘管第一季的表現確實非常出色。但這是下半年的事情，會支撐下半年的成績。因此，我們感到安心和有信心，該集團今年將產生免費現金。

Perhaps I can take the question on China. So the -- clearly, the demand situation in China continues to be challenging, and we continue to see very weak spreads and elevated from China. So -- and there was a lot of talk of incremental stimulus in reaction to everything that's going on at the moment. And hopefully, that will come. Hopefully, that will be oriented towards more steel-intensive parts of the economy so that it can have the maximum impact on steel consumption.

或許我可以回答有關中國的問題。因此，顯然，中國的需求情勢仍然充滿挑戰，我們繼續看到來自中國的利差非常疲軟且上升。因此，針對當前發生的一切，人們都在談論增量刺激措施。希望這一天能夠到來。希望這將面向經濟中鋼鐵密集度更高的領域，以便對鋼鐵消費產生最大影響。

But that's all uncertain, and that's why we continue to -- our strong efforts and lobbying efforts within all of the countries that we are operating to make sure that our businesses and our industries are appropriately protected from those risks of excess capacity in China.

但這一切都是不確定的，這就是為什麼我們繼續在我們開展業務的所有國家做出強有力的努力和遊說努力，以確保我們的企業和行業得到適當的保護，免受中國產能過剩的風險。

As a follow-up on that. Do you expect -- what kind of further measures can we expect in Europe?

作為對此的後續行動。您預計歐洲還會採取哪些進一步的措施？

Well, I think, as we discussed, I think there is a lot of good news in Europe with the steel plant just announced. I think there is a lot that will be announce as we move forward. I think what's going to be very important for us is the new trade actions because as we know, the safeguard comes through end next year. So this is an important piece of the whole puzzle. So this is coming in summer.

嗯，我認為，正如我們所討論的，隨著剛剛宣布的鋼鐵廠建設，歐洲有很多好消息。我認為隨著我們不斷前進，將會有許多消息被宣布。我認為新的貿易行動對我們來說非常重要，因為我們知道保障措施將於明年年底生效。所以這是整個謎題中的一個重要部分。所以這是在夏天發生的。

CBAM, I think there is a law that will be worked out in Europe in the second part of the year. I think what is really encouraging is that now it's clear that there is a good understanding of the challenges that we face in Europe, that the industry is facing Europe, right? And that's always very critical. So once we always speaking the same language, we all understand the issues, then we can work together to resolve them. And so I think that's what is encouraging about everything that has been published.

CBAM，我認為今年下半年歐洲將會制定一項法律。我認為真正令人鼓舞的是，現在我們清楚地認識到我們在歐洲面臨的挑戰，以及該行業在歐洲面臨的挑戰，對嗎？這始終是非常關鍵的。因此，一旦我們始終說同一種語言，我們都理解問題，那麼我們就可以共同努力解決它們。所以我認為這就是所有已發表的論文令人鼓舞的地方。

And as I said, I think now we want to see the detailed plans and implementation.

正如我所說，我認為現在我們想看到詳細的計劃和實施情況。

So we'll move to the next question, which we will take from Bastian at Deutsche Bank.

那麼我們進入下一個問題，這個問題由德意志銀行的巴斯蒂安來回答。

I've got two questions left. The first one is just on the JV business and actually Calvert specifically, is on the start-up of the new from what I understand, I think you will start actual production shortly. Is there a broad volume target or production target you could maybe share with us for this year?

我還有兩個問題。第一個問題只是關於合資業務，實際上 Calvert 具體來說，是關於新業務的啟動，據我所知，我認為你們很快就會開始實際生產。能與我們分享今年的產量目標或生產目標嗎？

And then secondly, you spend a lot of time talking about the tariff impact on NAFTA, but I think there's another 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes of slab supply from Brazil into Calvert as well. I think you did around 0.5 million tonnes of shipments in the first quarter.

其次，您花了很多時間談論關稅對北美自由貿易協定的影響，但我認為巴西也向卡爾弗特供應了另外 150 萬至 200 萬噸的板坯。我認為你們第一季的出貨量約為 50 萬噸。

So will the cost for these -- for the tariffs on these will that be taking in Calvert or in the Brazilian segment? And also, have you been able to build any slab inventory ahead of the tariffs. So maybe you can help us on the current inventory runway there in Calvert. Those are some of my questions.

那麼這些產品的成本──這些產品的關稅將在卡爾弗特還是巴西部分徵收？此外，您是否能夠在關稅實施之前建立任何板材庫存？所以也許您可以幫助我們處理卡爾弗特目前的庫存。這些是我的一些問題。

So we are not giving -- you're right, so that we are now in the process of commissioning the AIF, which is also extremely important for our business in North America, particularly, now everything that we just talked about trade. So that's very timely. We're not giving a target for this in terms of production. What I would say is that we -- our expectation is that it should take us about 12 months to be at a full run rate. So I would expect that by the end of the year, we should be at a very high level of run rate already.

所以我們不會給予——你是對的，所以我們現在正在委託 AIF，這對我們在北美的業務也極其重要，特別是現在我們剛才談到的有關貿易的一切。這非常及時。我們沒有為此設定生產目標。我想說的是，我們預計大約需要 12 個月才能達到滿載運轉。因此我預計到今年年底，我們的運行率將達到非常高的水平。

And then, of course, in parallel, we start the certification, the homologation process with customers. So this is a process that we will be running in parallel. And regarding these slabs, you're right. So of course, we are importing slabs into the United States for Calvert. But I would point to two points.

然後，當然，同時，我們開始與客戶進行認證和認可流程。所以這是一個我們將並行運行的過程。關於這些石板，你是對的。因此，我們當然會為卡爾弗特進口板材到美國。但我想指出兩點。

So one is we have seen a declining slab prices. So Calvert will be of course, being the cost of the tariffs for the imported slabs. So you're going to see that as part of the Calvert performance, north in Brazil, Calvert. But despite that, given how quickly prices moved in the United States, it will more than offset that. It will help also to offset some of the costs that we talked about ruling in Canada.

一方面，我們看到了板材價格的下降。因此，卡爾弗特當然會承擔進口板材關稅的成本。所以你會看到這是卡爾弗特表演的一部分，在巴西北部，卡爾弗特。但儘管如此，考慮到美國價格變動的速度，其影響仍將超過這一水平。這也有助於抵消我們在加拿大裁決時談到的一些成本。

Understood. So basically, bottom line, no real impact on the Brazilian business itself from that -- from what you see?

明白了。所以從根本上來說，這對巴西企業本身沒有真正的影響——從您的角度來看呢？

No. That's right.

不。這是正確的。

Understood. Okay. And then maybe just coming back to the start-up, just checking in. I mean is the start-up of the EF itself? Is it going -- is that going according to plan and time line.

明白了。好的。然後也許只是回到新創公司，只是檢查一下。我的意思是 EF 本身的啟動嗎？一切是否按照計劃和時間表進行？

So I think you started to ramp it up late last year. So -- but I guess the 12 months you're referring to, I guess, is probably starting basically with the first melting process. Is that correct, i.e., like whenever you stop the melting is 12 months from then?

所以我認為你們從去年年底就開始加強了。所以——但我想您所指的 12 個月基本上可能是從第一次熔化過程開始的。這是正確的嗎？也就是說，無論何時停止融化，都是從那時算起的 12 個月？

Yes, I think that's a good reference, Bastian. So right now, we are going through testing all the equipment, right? And then you put it all together, you have the first which we are anticipating by the end of second quarter. And then from there, you start counting the ramp-up. That's how it works.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的參考，巴斯蒂安。所以現在我們正在測試所有設備，對嗎？然後你把所有這些放在一起，你就會有第一個，我們預計它會在第二季末出現。然後從那裡開始計算上升幅度。這就是它的工作原理。

So I think we're going to have time for just a few more questions, Genuino now. So the first of those we will take from Max at ODDO. Actually, I'm mistaken, sorry, looking at my screen. So it's actually -- sorry, Tristen at BNP Paribas Exane.

所以我想我們還有時間再問幾個問題，Genuino。因此，我們將從 ODDO 的 Max 那裡得到第一個答案。事實上，我錯了，抱歉，看著我的螢幕。所以實際上——抱歉，我是法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Tristen。

First, on the CapEx. You mentioned that NED investment would fit within your $4.5 billion, $5 billion CapEx envelope. But if you move forward with all your projects, DRI projects in Europe, in France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, it really feel it's difficult to see how it would fit and you would not go above $5 billion. So was just wondering how we should look at this $5 billion. Is that a hard target?

首先，關於資本支出。您提到 NED 的投資將適合您的 45 億美元、50 億美元的資本支出範圍。但是，如果你繼續推進歐洲、法國、西班牙、德國、比利時的所有項目、DRI 項目，你真的很難看出它是否合適，而且投資不會超過 50 億美元。所以我只是想知道我們應該如何看待這 50 億美元。這是一個很難實現的目標嗎？

Is it a bit like your 50% post-dividend free cash flow target? Is that the way to think about it?

這有點像您 50% 的股息後自由現金流目標嗎？是這樣思考的嗎？

Tristan, as you can imagine, I mean, these are very large projects, right? So -- and we're not going to do it all at the same time. So this will happen gradually. We should not forget that the transformation, right, to this new green steel, it's going to take the case, right? And so you should expect that this will -- once we can see that we have the right conditions, the right policies that we have been talking about, and we have been very vocal about it.

特里斯坦，你可以想像，這些都是非常大的項目，對吧？所以——我們不會同時做所有的事情。所以這將逐漸發生。我們不應該忘記，向這種新型綠色鋼材的轉變，是需要採取這種措施的，對吧？因此，你應該預料到，一旦我們能夠看到我們擁有適當的條件、適當的政策，正如我們一直在談論的，並且我們也一直非常直言不諱地談論這一點，這一切就會發生。

Once we have that in place, so then we're going to be in a position then to start investments, but that should happen gradually. And that's why we feel confident that we should be able to accommodate that within the existing envelopes that we have been using now for a couple of years.

一旦我們實現了這一點，我們就可以開始投資，但這應該逐步進行。這就是為什麼我們有信心能夠在我們已經使用了幾年的現有信封內解決這個問題。

All right. And could there be upside as well to subsidies? I think the action plan also refers to additional help. Is that something you can expect?

好的。補貼是否也會帶來好處呢？我認為行動計劃也提到了額外的幫助。這是你能期待的事嗎？

Well, I think that's going to be part of the dialogue with the government. I think as I said, the fact that understand that some of the issues that we are facing in Europe. So we are encouraged by that, and this will be part of the dialogue. But at this point in time, I really don't have any more news on that front to share with you.

嗯，我認為這將成為與政府對話的一部分。我認為正如我所說的，我們了解歐洲面臨的一些問題。因此我們對此感到鼓舞，這將成為對話的一部分。但目前，我真的沒有更多關於這方面的消息可以與大家分享。

Okay. That's clear. And a quick question, just also on Calvert. There is a new process ongoing regarding the acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel.

好的。這很清楚。還有一個簡單的問題，也是關於卡爾弗特的。新日鐵收購美國鋼鐵公司的最新進程正在進行中。

If the new US administration clears the deal on national security rounds, but does not see an antitrust issue, could Nippon see a walk back from the agreement of selling the 50% stake to you? And -- just trying to understand if this is kind of a black or white scenario or if there is some grey as well?

如果美國新政府在國家安全審查中批准該交易，但沒有發現反壟斷問題，那麼日本是否會放棄向您出售 50% 股份的協議？而且——只是想了解這是否是一種黑色或白色的情況，或者是否也存在一些灰色？

Tristan, I will not speculate on that. I think let's wait and see what finally happens with that deal. So let us see. I don't think we have much to add to that. You know the terms that have been agreed.

特里斯坦，我不會對此進行推測。我想讓我們拭目以待，看看這筆交易最終會如何發展。讓我們看看。我認為我們對此沒有什麼可補充的。您知道已經同意的條款。

So let's just wait and see what what is the final conclusion of the review by CFIUS. There is a new review ongoing. That's -- this is my understanding, reading the news. So we will wait to see what happens there.

所以，我們只能拭目以待，看看CFIUS的最終審查結論是什麼。新的審查正在進行中。這是——這是我讀到新聞後的理解。因此我們將拭目以待，看看那裡會發生什麼。

So we will have the next question will be from Max at ODDO.

下一個問題來自 ODDO 的 Max。

So my first question is on defense, this is a thing that has grown in importance for the investors in recent weeks, in recent months. And could you talk us through your own defense exposure. My understanding is that you sell some heavy plates in the steel. Is it the only segment where you're active? Or is there anything else we should be aware of?

因此，我的第一個問題是關於防禦的，這是最近幾週、最近幾個月對投資者來說變得越來越重要的事情。您能否向我們介紹一下您自己的辯護經歷？據我了解，你們銷售一些鋼材中的厚板。這是您唯一活躍的領域嗎？或者還有什麼我們該注意的嗎？

Do you want to talk about it, Daniel?

你想談談這個嗎，丹尼爾？

Yes, sure. So I think we have touched on this a little bit in a lot of recent meetings. So yes, industrial is the sort of focus point of our defense exposure, they do have leading market positions. I think when we think about defense, it isn't a big steel consumer. So when we -- when you compare the focus on defense versus the German infrastructure build, then clearly, the German infrastructure build will be much more impactful for steel demand over the medium to long term.

是的，當然。所以我認為我們在最近的許多會議中都談到了這一點。所以是的，工業是我們國防投資的重點，它們確實擁有領先的市場地位。我認為，當我們考慮國防時，它並不是一個鋼鐵消費大戶。因此，當我們——當你將國防重點與德國基礎建設進行比較時，顯然，德國基礎建設對中長期鋼鐵需求的影響將會更大。

However, I think the focus on defense is indicative of this sort of renewed focus at Europe at the commission level that we need to be able to defend ourselves. And in order to be able to defend ourselves, we need to have strong healthy steel industries to be able to supply that material. So I think for us, that would be the biggest takeaway that is just indicative of this broader move at Europe and at the commission level to think more strategically about domestic industries.

然而，我認為對防禦的關注顯示歐洲委員會層級重新關注我們需要能夠保衛自己。為了能夠保衛自己，我們需要擁有強大健康的鋼鐵工業來供應這種材料。因此，我認為對我們來說，這將是最大的收穫，顯示歐洲和委員會層面正在採取更廣泛的舉措，更策略性地思考國內產業。

Okay. Okay, clear. And second question is on -- so you've highlighted a number of positive changes in Europe over recent months. And yet you haven't reactivated your plans to decarbonize in Europe. So what would be really the major triggers for you to envisage to really reactivate these plans?

好的。好的，清楚了。第二個問題是——您強調了歐洲近幾個月來發生的許多積極變化。但你們還沒有重新啟動歐洲的脫碳計畫。那麼，您認為真正重新啟動這些計劃的主要觸發因素是什麼？

Would it be a much higher energy costs? Would it be confirmation that the safeguard system will be replaced by a new one that is at least as effective? Is it the introduction of the melting pot rule? What steps do you see as critical for you to resume these investments?

能源成本會更高嗎？這是否顯示現有的保障體系將被至少同樣有效的新體系所取代？是熔爐規則的出台嗎？您認為哪些步驟對於恢復這些投資至關重要？

I'm not saying -- maybe I'll take this one. I think it's kind of all of the above, right? So you touched on a number of very important points on the safeguards. Our hope is that the commission will go even a step further. As you know, domestic mills lost a lot of market share to import.

我不是說——也許我會選擇這個。我認為以上都是這樣的，對嗎？您談到了保障措施方面的一些非常重要的要點。我們希望委員會能更進一步。眾所周知，國內鋼廠因進口而失去了大量的市場份額。

And we would really welcome measures that would take us -- or take the market share of imports back to prior levels. So it's still a long way to go there. Then CBAM, of course, is quite important, right, and then access to energy, competitive energy as well. So I would, for now just lift this and as we know, is also quite effective. It's also something that we would welcome because then you can really make sure that you are avoiding conventions, and that's quite good.

我們非常歡迎能夠使我們的進口市場份額恢復到以前水準的措施。所以，我們還有很長的路要走。那麼，CBAM 當然非常重要，對吧，然後是取得能源，競爭能源。因此，我現在只想解除這個，而且正如我們所知，這也是相當有效的。這也是我們歡迎的事情，因為這樣你就可以真正確保自己避免了慣例，這是非常好的。

So I'll leave at that. Back to you, Daniel.

我就到此為止了。回到你身邊，丹尼爾。

Great. Thanks, Jamie. So we have time, I think, for one last question, which we're going to take from Andrew at UBS.

偉大的。謝謝，傑米。所以我想我們還有時間回答最後一個問題，這個問題由瑞銀的安德魯來回答。

It's actually a follow-up to the last question, makes sense. I mean, one thing that I was encouraged by the steel action plan. But one thing I'm less clear on is what can actually be done to address the biggest problem, which to me seems like it's the high energy cost issue in many of the countries around Europe. I mean, from your perspective, what can actually be achieved through the steel action plan from changes in regulation, could actually make a difference to to that because, ultimately, if you're going to make these investments in green steel, that's a key building block. So I mean, do you see any material change that could come from this, which is going to impact upon your ability to make those investments?

這其實是對上一個問題的後續回答，很有意義。我的意思是，鋼鐵行動計畫令我感到鼓舞。但有一件事我不太清楚，那就是實際上可以做些什麼來解決最大的問題，在我看來，最大的問題是歐洲許多國家的高能源成本問題。我的意思是，從您的角度來看，透過改變監管規定而製定的鋼鐵行動計劃實際上可以實現什麼，實際上可以對此產生影響，因為最終，如果您要對綠色鋼鐵進行這些投資，那麼這是一個關鍵的基石。所以我的意思是，您是否認為這會帶來任何實質的變化，從而影響您進行這些投資的能力？

Andrew, I think -- I'm not so sure that I follow 100% of your question and link you were trying to establish. But I think, as we just discussed, I think the -- with the steel action plan, we can address some of these fundamental issues such as the very high level of imports. And as we know, it's just not the level of import, it's just that it's extremely unfair, right, with the domestic mills because domestic mills upping for the higher CO2 costs, than nobody out, of course, we have also the situation in China with extremely low prices that it's very hard to rationalize, to defend, right? So it's really -- the competition is today for the European mills, clearly, it's extremely unfair. So to the extent that we can address that, that will really be extremely supportive drive, even if demand remains where it is, if we can just allow the domestic mills to recover some market share loss, it will be extremely positive.

安德魯，我想——我不太確定我是否 100% 理解了你的問題以及你試圖建立的聯繫。但我認為，正如我們剛才討論的那樣，透過鋼鐵行動計劃，我們可以解決一些根本問題，例如進口量非常高的問題。我們知道，這不僅僅是進口水平的問題，而是對國內工廠來說極其不公平，因為國內工廠為了應對更高的二氧化碳成本而提高價格，當然，我們也看到中國的情況，價格非常低，很難合理化，很難辯護，對吧？所以，對歐洲工廠來說，今天的競爭顯然極不公平。因此，只要我們能夠解決這個問題，那將是非常強大的支持，即使需求保持不變，如果我們能夠讓國內鋼廠恢復一些市場份額的損失，那將是非常積極的。

We should see that as an increase in steel consumption for the domestic mills. So that should be quite important. And then, of course, we have the energy discussion, which continues to be an issue. So our power prices across Europe continue to remain elevated. And if you want to go through this transition and we want to have more EIS, we would need to have better transmission lines, we will need to have access to more competitive prices.

我們應該將此視為國內鋼廠鋼鐵消費量的增加。所以這應該非常重要。當然，我們也進行了能源討論，這仍然是一個問題。因此整個歐洲的電價持續保持在高位。如果我們想要經歷這種轉變，並且想要擁有更多的 EIS，我們需要擁有更好的輸電線路，我們需要獲得更具競爭力的價格。

So -- and all of that is actually -- it's covered by the steel action plan that was announced. So -- but again, as we discussed, the key point will really be now the details and the implementation.

所以——實際上所有這些——都包含在已宣布的鋼鐵行動計劃中。所以——但正如我們所討論的，關鍵點現在實際上是細節和實施。

I guess just a follow-up to that. I mean, my question was more on what can the action plan actually deliver in terms of tangible reduction in energy costs because maybe some help on transmission might make a small change, but ultimately doesn't make enough of a change. And given your global footprint, there is a model of maybe doing the iron making outside Europe where power costs are just naturally lower, and importing in potentially make more sense? And how do you think about that?

我想這只是對此的一個後續行動。我的意思是，我的問題更多的是，該行動計劃在切實降低能源成本方面究竟能帶來什麼，因為也許傳輸方面的一些幫助可能會帶來一些小的變化，但最終並不能帶來足夠的變化。考慮到你們的全球影響力，有沒有一種模式是在歐洲以外進行煉鐵，那裡的電力成本自然較低，進口可能更有意義？您對此有何看法？

Yes. I think you're right. So what governments can do -- and this is also part of the plan is allowing as an example, contracts for defense, which should then address some of the structural issues, right? So contracts for defense, facilitating access to PPAs. So there are measures that governments in Europe can take today to provide the local mills competitive price, right?

是的。我認為你是對的。那麼政府可以做什麼——這也是計劃的一部分，例如允許簽訂國防合同，這應該可以解決一些結構性問題，對嗎？因此，簽訂國防合約可以促進電力購買協議 (PPA) 的實施。那麼歐洲各國政府今天可以採取措施為當地工廠提供有競爭力的價格，對嗎？

Your question is, do we do it in Europe? Do we do it outside of Europe? I think that is something to be seen, right? I think we have ready to first see -- really what comes out concretely from the plan. And then we're going to be in a position to decide.

你的問題是，我們在歐洲這樣做嗎？我們在歐洲以外的地方做這件事嗎？我認為這是值得一看的，對嗎？我認為我們已經準備好首先看看該計劃的具體結果。然後我們就可以做出決定了。

I think ArcelorMittal is well positioned because we have, of course, our footprint in different locations. Texas is a good example, right? So we have our DRI plant there. We have the possibility to expand. We have access there to gas.

我認為安賽樂米塔爾處於有利地位，因為我們在不同地區都有業務。德克薩斯州就是一個很好的例子，對吧？我們的 DRI 工廠就在那裡。我們還有擴張的可能性。我們在那裡可以使用天然氣。

So we'll have the option. So -- but at this point, I think it's early, so we just need to really understand concretely the change, and then we're going to be in a position to take a call on it.

所以我們有選擇。所以——但目前我認為還為時過早，所以我們只需要真正具體地了解變化，然後我們就可以對其進行判斷。

Thank you, Genuino. So that's our last question. So with that, I will hand back to you for closing remarks. Thank you.

謝謝你，Genuino。這是我們的最後一個問題。因此，我將把話題交還給各位，請大家做最後發言。謝謝。

Thank you, Daniel, and thank you, everyone. Before we close, I want to reiterate my messages from the beginning of the call. Firstly, I say with confidence that everyone across the company is working to become a fatality 3 and 0 serious injuries company as quickly as possible. Secondly, our operations are performing well consistently. Together with our high-graded portfolio, this is enabling our company to deliver resilient results and higher margins.

謝謝你，丹尼爾，也謝謝大家。在我們結束之前，我想重申我在通話開始時所表達的訊息。首先，我可以自信地說，公司上下都在努力盡快成為一家死亡人數為 3 人、重傷人數為 0 人的公司。其次，我們的營運持續表現良好。加上我們的高評級產品組合，這使我們公司能夠實現穩健的業績和更高的利潤率。

Underlying cash flow generation remains strong at all points of the cycle, demonstrating the material transformation of ArcelorMittal. Lastly, our business is well positioned both operationally and financially to navigate market uncertainties without changing strategic course. Our growth projects have good momentum and will provide unique upside to ArcelorMittal's EBITDA and cash flow. And our capital return policy that has enabled us to buy back 38% of the company over the last 4.5 years and increased dividends per share by 85% over the same period is unchanged.

在周期的各個階段，基礎現金流生成都保持強勁，體現了安賽樂米塔爾的實質轉型。最後，我們的業務在營運和財務上都處於有利地位，可以在不改變策略方針的情況下應對市場不確定性。我們的成長項目勢頭良好，將為安賽樂米塔爾的 EBITDA 和現金流帶來獨特的上升空間。我們的資本回報政策使我們在過去 4.5 年裡回購了公司 38% 的股份，並在同一時期將每股股息提高了 85%，這項政策至今沒有改變。

With that said, I will close today's call. If you need anything further, please do reach or to Daniel and Christine. I look forward to speaking with you soon. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you.

話雖如此，今天的電話會議就此結束。如果您還有其他需要，請聯絡 Daniel 和 Christine。我期待很快與您交談。保持安全並確保周圍人的安全。謝謝。