ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress in 2024. Present on the call today, we have our CEO, Aditya Mittal; and our CFO, Genuino Christino.

大家下午好。我是安賽樂米塔爾投資者關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。感謝您參加本次電話會議，討論安賽樂米塔爾 2024 年的業績和進展。參加今天電話會議的有我們的執行長阿迪亞·米塔爾 (Aditya Mittal)；以及我們的財務長 Genuino Christino。

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation, which we published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 23 of that presentation. Following some opening remarks from Aditya and Genuino, we will move directly to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions).

在我們開始之前，我想提一些常規事項。像往常一樣，我們不會回顧今天早上在我們網站上發布的結果報告。不過，我確實想提請您注意該簡報第 23 張投影片上的免責聲明。在 Aditya 和 Genuino 致開幕詞之後，我們將直接進入問答環節。（操作員指令）。

And with that, I will hand over the call to Aditya.

說完這些，我將把電話交給阿迪亞。

Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. Before I ask Genuino to comment on our financial performance, I want to spend a moment reviewing the progress we have made against our priorities.

謝謝，丹尼爾。歡迎大家，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。在我請 Genuino 對我們的財務表現發表評論之前，我想花一點時間回顧一下我們在優先事項方面所取得的進展。

First, I want to talk about safety. Across the company, our people are galvanized to improve our safety performance and achieve our goal of being fatality and injury free. 2024 saw that the completion of the dss+ group-wide safety audit and the recommendations, which focus on our risk management processes and establishing a consistent safety-first culture across all group operations.

首先我想談談安全問題。整個公司上下齊心協力，提升安全績效，實現零死亡、零傷害的目標。 2024 年，dss+ 集團範圍的安全審計及建議完成，重點關注我們的風險管理流程並在整個集團運營中建立一致的安全第一文化。

I'm determined that we improved our safety performance this year and believe the detailed unit-specific road map developed from the audit will support our efforts to do so.

我決心今年提高我們的安全績效，並相信審計制定的具體單位的詳​​細路線圖將支持我們的努力。

Reflecting on our strategic progress in 2024, we have achieved a great deal. We have faced challenges. As we all know, the cycle has not been in our favor. Yet despite those headwinds, we have delivered resilient results. $2 billion of investable cash flow generation in this environment speaks to the progress we have made as a company. This has allowed us to invest countercyclically and reward our shareholders at the same time. Everyone at ArcelorMittal should take pride in this.

回顧2024年的策略進程，我們取得了巨大的成就。我們面臨挑戰。眾所周知，這個週期對我們不利。然而，儘管面臨這些阻力，我們仍然取得了強勁的業績。在這種環境下產生的20億美元可投資現金流證明了我們公司所取得的進步。這使我們能夠逆週期投資並同時回報股東。安賽樂米塔爾的每個人都應該為此感到自豪。

Growth is an increasingly important theme for ArcelorMittal. This year, we will start to see the benefits of the organic investments we have been making over the last few years. the expected structural EBITDA impact from our portfolio of high return strategic projects now stand at $1.9 billion. $400 million of this is due to be captured in 2025 with a further $600 million due in 2026.

對安賽樂米塔爾來說，成長是一個越來越重要的主題。今年，我們將開始看到過去幾年進行的有機投資所帶來的收益。我們的高回報策略項目組合預期產生的結構性 EBITDA 影響目前為 19 億美元。其中 4 億美元將於 2025 年到賬，另外 6 億美元將於 2026 年到賬。

Our recently completed projects, the Vega cold mill complex in Brazil, the new hot strip mill in Mexico and the 1 gigawatt renewable project in India are performing well. The fact that these projects are delivering new incremental EBITDA we expected should instill confidence that our strategic CapEx will add significant structural earnings and cash flow benefits.

我們最近完成的項目，巴西的Vega冷軋綜合廠、墨西哥的新熱軋廠和印度的1千兆瓦再生能源項目都表現良好。這些項目正在產生我們預期的新的增量 EBITDA，這一事實應該讓我們相信，我們的策略資本支出將增加顯著的結構性收益和現金流收益。

Similarly, the assets that we have acquired in recent periods, including Pecem in Brazil, Texas HBI facility and the stake in Vallourec are all performing well, adding further structural earnings and cash flow growth. This growth supports higher shareholder returns.

同樣，我們近期收購的資產，包括巴西的Pecem、德州的HBI設施和Vallourec的股份都表現良好，進一步增加了結構性收益和現金流成長。這種成長支持了更高的股東回報。

Over the past four years, our dividend has grown at a compound rate of 16%, reflecting our confidence in the outlook of our company. On top of our dividends, we have returned significant cash through our buybacks, allowing us to reduce our share count by 37% over the last 4 years, a rate unmatched by any of our peers.

過去四年來，我們的股息以16%的複合率成長，這反映了我們對公司前景的信心。除了股息之外，我們還透過回購返還了大量現金，使得我們在過去 4 年中將股票數量減少了 37%，這一速度是同業無法比擬的。

Our policy and capital return intentions are clear. On the theme of Decarb, I want to highlight that ArcelorMittal's absolute carbon emissions today are approximately half the level of 2018. Much of this has been the result of our portfolio optimization and the steps that we have taken to shape our business around our most competitive assets.

我們的政策和資本回報意圖都很明確。在「脫碳」主題下，我想強調的是，安賽樂米塔爾目前的絕對碳排放量大約是 2018 年水準的一半。這在很大程度上是我們投資組合優化的結果，以及我們圍繞最具競爭力的資產塑造業務所採取的措施。

As we move forward, we are determined to follow a transition pathway that is economic and ensures that we remain competitive. When it makes sense, we are making investments. The ES in Gijon and the revamp of our two ES in Sestao are both good examples. These economic projects support our growing offering of low-carbon solutions to our customers under our XCarb brand. It is critical that we see Europe make swift progress in providing a quality environment that appropriately incentivizes the further investments required to accelerate decarbonization in Europe.

在我們前進的過程中，我們決心走一條既經濟又能確保我們保持競爭力的轉型之路。當有意義的時候，我們就會進行投資。希洪的 ES 和我們在塞斯陶的兩家 ES 的改造都是很好的例子。這些經濟項目支持我們透過 XCarb 品牌向客戶提供越來越多的低碳解決方案。至關重要的是，我們看到歐洲在提供優質環境方面取得快速進展，適當激勵加速歐洲脫碳所需的進一步投資。

As I conclude, my message is quite simple. We are a transformed business. We have the best talent, we have excellent market positions in all the attractive geographies, including a unique exposure to India, and we have a reputation for quality and innovation that is unmatched by any of our peers.

最後，我要表達的意思很簡單。我們是一家轉型的企業。我們擁有最優秀的人才，在所有具有吸引力的地區都擁有卓越的市場地位，包括在印度的獨特影響力，而且我們在品質和創新方面享有同行無法比擬的聲譽。

Our Tier 1 balance sheet is a strategic asset that underpins our consistent growth and continued value creation. I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all our employees, customers and the shareholders for placing your trust in us.

我們的一級資產負債表是一項策略性資產，支撐著我們持續的成長和持續的價值創造。我想藉此機會感謝我們所有員工、客戶和股東對我們的信任。

With that, I will now hand it over to Genuino to talk more about our financial performance.

說完這些，我現在將把話題交給 Genuino 來進一步談論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Aditya, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered a resilient performance last year despite the challenging market backdrop. EBITDA was $7.1 billion for the year, which translates to $130 of EBITDA per tonne shipped. This is almost double the level of previous cycle lows, showing that the business and its earning capacity have structurally transformed. The benefits of our optimized asset base and our relatively diversified exposures have also seen our results show significantly more stability than peers. This was particularly evident in the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，阿迪亞，大家下午好。儘管去年的市場環境充滿挑戰，我們仍然取得了強勁的業績。全年 EBITDA 為 71 億美元，相當於每運輸一噸貨物可獲得 130 美元的 EBITDA。這幾乎是之前週期低點的兩倍，這表明業務及其盈利能力已經發生了結構性轉變。我們優化的資產基礎和相對多元化的投資機會也使我們的業績比同業更加穩定。這在第四季尤為明顯。

Adjusted net income of $2.3 billion in 2024 represents a 4.4% return on the book value of [our body], which now stands at $64 per share. Return on capital employed in 2024 was 6%. Considering where we are in the cycle, I believe both these figures are commendable.

2024 年調整後淨收入為 23 億美元，佔 [我們的身體] 帳面價值的 4.4% 回報率，目前為每股 64 美元。2024 年資本使用報酬率為 6%。考慮到我們目前所處的周期階段，我相信這兩個數字都是值得稱讚的。

Moving on to cash flow. We generated over $2 billion of investable cash flow in 2024, bringing the total to $21 billion since 2021. Last year, we invested $1.3 billion in the high return in strategic growth projects that Aditya described. We returned $1.7 billion to shareholders, including the repurchase of 6% of our outstanding shares. And we invested a net $0.6 billion in M&A, including, of course, our 28% stake in Vallourec.

繼續討論現金流。我們在 2024 年創造了超過 20 億美元的可投資現金流，使 2021 年以來的總額達到 210 億美元。去年，我們向阿迪亞所描述的高回報策略成長項目投資了 13 億美元。我們向股東返還了 17 億美元，包括回購 6% 的流通股。我們在併購方面的淨投資為 6 億美元，當然其中包括我們在 Vallourec 的 28% 的股份。

Our performance provides strong evidence that ArcelorMittal can deliver value to all aspects of this deal cycle and is testament to the progress we have made in recent years. I believe this is reflecting the dividend increase to $0.55 per share, this is a 10% increase on last year's dividend and brings the total increase since 2022 to over 80%.

我們的表現有力地證明了安賽樂米塔爾可以為這一交易週期的各個方面創造價值，也證明了我們近年來的進展。我相信這反映了股息增加至每股 0.55 美元，這比去年的股息增加了 10%，並且自 2022 年以來的總增幅超過 80%。

Finally, on the outlook, we are forecasting slightly positive apparent demand growth and are well positioned to benefit from any recovery. We are confident we will continue to generate positive cash flow this year and beyond, which will continue to be allocated via our established capital return policy.

最後，就前景而言，我們預測表觀需求將略有正成長，並且有能力從任何復甦中受益。我們相信，今年及以後我們將繼續產生正現金流，這些現金流將繼續透過我們既定的資本回報政策進行分配。

With that, Daniel, I believe we can move to the Q&A.

丹尼爾，我想我們可以進入問答環節了。

Great. Thank you, Genuino. So we will take our first question from Ephrem at Citigroup.

偉大的。謝謝你，Genuino。我們第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ephrem。

Three quick questions. Firstly, with the plant non-green steel-orated plant in Calvert to commence end of '27, does that mean anything for the second year at Calvert, either in terms of accelerating the timeline or delaying the terms in terms of project complexity on sequencing, et cetera? That's the first one.

三個簡短的問題。首先，卡爾弗特的非綠色鋼鐵工廠將於 27 年底開始運營，這對卡爾弗特的第二年有何影響，無論是在加快時間表方面，還是在項目複雜性排序方面延遲條款，等等？這是第一個。

Secondly, on CapEx. Firstly, on the strategic growth of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion of the new projects also coming into the pipeline like the electrical steel plant, should we expect it to remain at these kind of levels beyond 2026 as well as long as the balance sheet remains under geared and on the $0.3 million to $0.4 billion of decarbonization CapEx after the Chairman's open letter on the FT? Is it also right to think that it would remain for the foreseeable future at these levels unless there are major changes in the form of some regulatory support?

其次，關於資本支出。首先，隨著新項目（如電工鋼廠）的 13 億至 15 億美元的戰略增長，我們是否應該預期它在 2026 年以後仍將保持這種水平，並且只要資產負債表仍然處於低負債狀態，並且在董事長向 FT 發表公開信之後，脫碳資本支出為 30 萬至 4 億美元？是否也可以這樣認為：除非監管支持出現重大變化，否則油價在可預見的未來仍將維持在目前的水準？

And thirdly, a slightly pedantic question, with the volume increase in Liberia from incremental 10 million tonnes to 15 million tonnes. Why is the EBITDA potential only increasing from -- by about $100 million from $350 million, has the underlying assumption on the cost or pricing there changed as well?

第三，這是一個略顯迂腐的問題，利比里亞的產量從增量1000萬噸增加到了1500萬噸。為什麼 EBITDA 潛力僅從 3.5 億美元增加約 1 億美元，其成本或定價的基本假設是否也改變了？

A lot of questions but let me take a stab at them. So in terms of Calvert, Alabama, look, I think the first headline is that we are in the process of commissioning our brand-new electric furnace. This is the most technologically advanced electric furnace in the United States with [cast and hot strip] mill with the capability of producing exposed automotive grades.

問題很多，但讓我試著解答。因此，就阿拉巴馬州卡爾弗特而言，我認為第一個標題是我們正在調試我們的全新電爐。這是美國技術最先進的電爐，配備[鑄造和熱軋]軋機，能夠生產外露的汽車級鋼材。

So in our minds, it is game changing, it's just cutting edge, it's -- we've got a good cost base and then further strengthens our strong franchise that we have in the NAFTA region. We're building on that with electrical steel announcement this morning that we made. This is going to be 100% owned by ArcelorMittal. It's another world-class cutting-edge electrical steel facility for non-grade oriented steels for the premium automotive demand requirements with really good gauge capability and excellent quality characteristics.

所以在我們看來，這是改變遊戲規則的，這是最前沿的，我們擁有良好的成本基礎，並進一步加強了我們在北美自由貿易協定地區的強大特許經營權。我們正在根據今天上午發布的電工鋼公告繼續推進這項工作。安賽樂米塔爾將全資擁有該公司。這是另一家世界一流的尖端電工鋼工廠，專門生產無級取向鋼，滿足高端汽車需求，具有非常好的測量能力和卓越的品質特性。

We are also looking at a second year -- and your question was, does the electrical steel facility delay that? I don't believe it materially delays the second EAF. I think what we're focused on is commissioning the first and then utilizing the resources that we have for the first EAF and staffing the project for the second year. So that's fundamentally the plan. We're building -- we're commissioning the first year, building another world-class electrical steel facility in terms of electrical steels at Calvert and then we'll start on the second EAF.

我們也正在考慮第二年——而您的問題是，電工鋼設施是否會延遲這一目標？我不認為這會實​​質地推遲第二次 EAF。我認為我們的重點是調試第一個，然後利用我們為第一個 EAF 所擁有的資源，並為第二年的專案配備人員。這就是基本計劃。我們正在建造——我們將在第一年進行調試，在卡爾弗特建造另一個世界一流的電工鋼設施，然後我們將啟動第二座電工鋼廠。

In terms of the medium-term CapEx and Decarb, fundamentally, -- it's a great question. Our focus remains to keep the overall CapEx envelope between $4.5 billion to $5 billion. That's really the focus. And we have the ability to modify where we spend our CapEx, right?

就中期資本支出和 Decarb 而言，從根本上來說，這是一個很好的問題。我們的重點仍然是將整體資本支出保持在 45 億美元至 50 億美元之間。這才是真正的重點。我們有能力改變資本支出的地方，對嗎？

So you saw in the third quarter, we announced we are not going ahead with the Monlevade project in Brazil. Instead, we substituted that with the electrical steel project in Calvert, Alabama. So similarly, I think you can expect developments like that where we see the market is changing or we can be more agile and dynamic in allocating where we want to invest our capital. And that also applies to Decarb. I'm not suggesting that all this growth CapEx will go into Decarb. But perhaps based on acceleration of policy regulation that we want. And in case that happens, we could have more than just $300 million of Decarb CapEx per year.

所以您看到，在第三季度，我們宣布不會繼續推進巴西的 Monlevade 專案。相反，我們用阿拉巴馬州卡爾弗特的電工鋼項目來取代它。因此，同樣地，我認為你可以期待這樣的發展，我們看到市場正在發生變化，或者我們可以更靈活、更有活力地分配我們想要投資的資本。這也適用於 Decarb。我並不是建議將所有這些成長資本支出都投入到 Decarb 中。但或許是基於我們想要的政策監理加速。如果發生這種情況，我們每年的脫碳資本支出將超過 3 億美元。

In terms of Liberia, look, that's a very good question. We have not changed our long-term assumptions of iron ore, and they remain conservative, especially compared to spot today. The reason why you don't have the same delta, I mean, you have a similar delta in terms of volume growth. But the reason why it is slightly less is primarily because of quality considerations, right?

就利比里亞而言，這是一個非常好的問題。我們並未改變對鐵礦石的長期假設，而這些假設依然保守，尤其是與目前的現貨價格相比。我之所以沒有相同的增量，是因為它的數量增長有相似的增量。但稍微少一點的原因，主要還是出於品質的考慮，對吧？

The 5 million tonnes is the DSO product. so there's a much lower FE than the [synthase] product that we will make. And so as we blend, we get some revenue uplift. So maybe to explain more clearly today, the concentrate can do 15 million tonnes of concentrate and 5 million tonnes of DSO. The original plan was we lose the 5 million tonne on DSO and now the new plan is that we blend it and we have a 20 million tonne [synthase] product. And so the delta is -- obviously, there's a positive on the volume side, offset by some of the changes on the revenue side. So we can provide you with more detail on the math behind that.

這 500 萬噸是 DSO 產品。因此，FE 比我們生產的[合成酶]產品要低得多。當我們融合時，我們會獲得一些收入增加。所以今天或許可以解釋得更清楚一點，精礦可以產出 1500 萬噸精礦和 500 萬噸 DSO。最初的計劃是我們在 DSO 上損失 500 萬噸，而現在的新計劃是將其混合，這樣我們就有了 2000 萬噸的 [合成酶] 產品。因此，差異是——顯然，銷量方面有一個積極因素，但被收入方面的一些變化所抵消。因此我們可以為您提供有關其背後數學原理的更多細節。

So we'll move to take the next question from Patrick at Bank of America.

因此我們將回答美國銀行的派崔克提出的下一個問題。

I'm sure you guys knew this was coming. If you saw kind of a reemergence of a threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico from the US, how are you guys thinking about the potential impacts on Dofasco and Mexico?

我確信你們都知道這會發生。如果您發現美國再次威脅對加拿大和墨西哥徵收關稅，您如何看待這對多法斯科和墨西哥的潛在影響？

So yes, Andrew, we are expecting this question to come soon. So thank you for asking it. Look, the high level first or the global perspective, and you guys all know this better than us. There's significant global overcapacity. So any action to tackle that is welcomed. We see similar actions underway in the European marketplace, similar in India. There have been actions already taken in Brazil. There's discussions for potentially some more, nothing has really materialized and we see similar issues in the United States.

是的，安德魯，我們期待這個問題很快就會出現。感謝您提出這個問題。你看，首先是高層，或是全球視角，你們都比我們更了解這一點。全球產能嚴重過剩。因此，任何解決這一問題的行動都值得歡迎。我們看到歐洲市場和印度也在採取類似的行動。巴西已經採取了行動。可能會有更多討論，但尚未真正實現，我們在美國也看到了類似的問題。

In terms of specifically, the tariffs against Canada or Mexico, we've been there before. I think if you remember, in 2018, 2019, when 232 was imposed, there was tariffs that came from -- there was tariffs on Canadian steel and Mexican steel. And roughly, it costed us about $100 million per quarter.

具體來說，我們以前對加拿大和墨西哥徵收過關稅。我想如果你還記得的話，2018 年和 2019 年實施 232 法案時，就對加拿大鋼鐵和墨西哥鋼鐵徵收了關稅。粗略地說，我們每季的成本約為 1 億美元。

But this was more than offset by revenue, right? So if you look at the revenue impact, it was far greater. I'm not suggesting that, that would happen again in this period in time. But clearly, one mitigating factor would be the revenue impact on some of these tariffs.

但這已經超過了收入，對嗎？因此，如果你看一下收入影響，你會發現其影響要大得多。我並不是說這種事情會在這段時間內再次發生。但顯然，一個緩解因素是部分關稅對收入的影響。

Secondly, I would just add that I talked about the Calvert EAF. So you heard about that. So we have much more slabs, which were domestically produced, which are melted and poured. So that's another mitigating factor. But fundamentally, I guess the last point I would make is that these discussions remain uncertain. What will end up happening.

其次，我想補充一下，我談論的是 Calvert EAF。你聽說了這件事。因此，我們有更多的國產板材，這些板材是熔化和澆注的。所以這是另一個緩解因素。但從根本上來說，我想我要說的最後一點是這些討論仍然不確定。最終會發生什麼。

But the fundamental focus that we have as an organization is really to strengthen the NAFTA trading block. We see a lot of imports that are coming into Mexico and into Canada. And to the extent that the desire is fundamentally to strengthen NAFTA, that would be a bit positive. And excuse me, Patrick, I got the names mixed up so thank you for your question.

但作為一個組織，我們的根本重點其實是加強北美自由貿易協定。我們看到大量進口商品進入墨西哥和加拿大。從根本上來說，人們希望加強北美自由貿易協定，這將會是有點正面的。抱歉，派崔克，我把名字搞混了，謝謝你的提問。

Great. Thanks, Patrick. So we'll move now to a question from Andrew at UBS.

偉大的。謝謝，派崔克。現在我們來回答瑞銀的安德魯 (Andrew) 提出的問題。

I can see why Aditya mix things up. Just a follow up on that tariffs question, I guess just to spell out the actual volume flows into the US, can you just give us the numbers around what's coming from Mexico? Obviously, there's a bit of large lab volumes, could you quantify that and any other products? And also how much is going from Dofasco into the US? And anything from your report per sale? Just give us some volume numbers would be helpful.

我明白 Aditya 為什麼會把事情搞混。關於關稅問題的後續問題，我想只是為了說明流入美國的實際數量，您能給我們來自墨西哥的具體數字嗎？顯然，實驗室的體積有點大，您能量化它和任何其他產品嗎？還有從 多法斯科 到美國的運費是多少？您的每筆銷售報告還有什麼內容嗎？只要給我們一些數量數字就會有幫助。

And secondly, just on the electrical steel. Can you just talk a little bit about the market for non-grown orientated like -- how you see that growing in the coming years, what is -- for any of the supply coming down the pipe? How tight do you expect that market be by the time this mill comes through? And can you just talk through a little bit of the market situation there, please?

其次，我們來談談電工鋼。您能否簡單談談非種植導向的市場，例如，您認為未來幾年該市場將如何成長，以及未來的供應情況如何？當這家工廠投產時，您預期市場會有多緊張？能簡單談談那裡的市場狀況嗎？

I'll talk about electrical steels and then I'll see if Genuino can provide you with any color on your volume requirements -- volume question. In terms of the non-grade oriented electrical steel market, NOES as we call it, today, the market is in deficit, a significant amount of the supplies through imports. So if you look at our volume, it's about 150,000 tonnes. It basically covers the import volume. That's the first point.

我將討論電工鋼，然後看看 Genuino 是否能為您提供有關產量需求的詳細資訊——產量問題。就無級取向電工鋼市場（我們稱之為 NOES）而言，目前市場處於短缺狀態，大量供應依賴進口。如果你看看我們的數量，它大約是150,000噸。基本覆蓋了進口量。這是第一點。

Second point I would make is that the market continues to grow. And we should not think of this as just electrical costs. We should think of this as a market, which is electrical costs plus hybrids because electrical steels go into both vehicles. So there's still strong growth in hybrid vehicle demand and would be catering to that.

我要說的第二點是市場持續成長。我們不應該認為這只是電力成本。我們應該將其視為一個市場，即電力成本加上混合動力成本，因為兩種車輛都使用了電工鋼。因此，混合動力汽車的需求仍然強勁增長，我們將滿足這一需求。

The third point I would make is that, yes, there are some announcements of new capacity, but you really need to look at that capacity and what is the capability of that capacity to deliver the high-quality premium automotive material. That, I think, is actually much shorter or much less than the overall market situation. So in that sense, I think we have a unique product offering with a very high quality capability and the market is there for our product. Genuino?

我要說的第三點是，是的，有一些新產能的公告，但你真正需要關注的是這些產能，以及這些產能是否有能力提供高品質的優質汽車材料。我認為，這實際上比整體市場情況要短得多或少得多。所以從這個意義上來說，我認為我們擁有獨特的產品，具有非常高的品質能力，並且市場需要我們的產品。正品？

Yes. Thank you, Aditya. Hi, Andrew, As you know, we don't typically disclose the volumes that are close from Canada and Mexico to US and vice versa. And that's why we are trying to be helpful by reconfirming the cost impact that we saw back then in 2018. When we look at the close today, they are similar, and that's why we continue to quote the $100 million that Aditya talked about on the cost side. And then, of course, we will see what happens on the other side of the equation, the revenue side.

是的。謝謝你，阿迪亞。你好，安德魯，如你所知，我們通常不會透露加拿大和墨西哥與美國之間的貿易量。這就是為什麼我們試圖透過重新確認 2018 年看到的成本影響來提供幫助。當我們看今天的收盤價時，它們是相似的，這就是為什麼我們繼續引用 Aditya 在成本方面談到的 1 億美元。然後，當然，我們將看到等式的另一邊，即收入方面會發生什麼。

Tristan, Exane BNP.

特里斯坦（Tristan），Exane BNP。

I have two. First, on the strategic projects. So this year, you expect a $0.4 billion EBITDA uplift from Vega, India and Liberia but you also have 3 projects. I think they were supposed to be ramping up now, Mardyck, [Baremensa, Surro Suel]. Now due to be completed in 2025. So First, can you explain a bit the delay and why you don't expect at least some contribution for those 3 projects this year already?

我有兩個。第一，關於戰略項目。因此，今年您預計維加、印度和賴比瑞亞的 EBITDA 將增加 4 億美元，但您還有 3 個項目。我認為他們現在應該加大力度了，Mardyck，[巴雷門薩，蘇羅·蘇埃爾]。預計 2025 年完工。那麼首先，您能否解釋一下延遲的原因以及為什麼您不期望今年至少對這 3 個項目做出一些貢獻？

Thank you, Tristan. Look, that's very important question. So just on the high-level overview. We have -- we expect about $100 million of EBITDA contribution from these projects. And so instead of receiving that or getting that EBITDA contribution in 2025 that has been moved to 2026. And therefore, we expect $400 million EBITDA lift in 2025. And now we expect $600 million uplift in 2026.

謝謝你，特里斯坦。瞧，這是一個非常重要的問題。僅就高層概述而言。我們預計這些項目將帶來約 1 億美元的 EBITDA 貢獻。因此，不再在 2025 年收到或獲得 EBITDA 貢獻，而是將其推遲到 2026 年。因此，我們預計 2025 年 EBITDA 將增加 4 億美元。現在我們預計 2026 年的營收將增加 6 億美元。

So these are 3 different projects. So Mardyck is in a electrical steel facility in Europe which we are building. There were various reasons for a delay, predominantly they had to do with equipment supply. And also, I would say, a lack of experience in the large-scale projects, right? In Europe, we've not been investing. So we had a project team and engineers but there is a lack of experience. What we see is that when you have a project team, which has done one project, the next project flows much more smoothly.

這是 3 個不同的項目。Mardyck 位於歐洲，我們正在建造一家電工鋼工廠。延遲的原因有很多，主要與設備供應有關。而且我想說，缺乏大型專案的經驗，對嗎？在歐洲，我們還沒有投資。因此，我們有一個專案團隊和工程師，但缺乏經驗。我們看到的是，當你有一個專案團隊，完成了一個專案後，下一個專案的進度就會順利得多。

In [Surro Suel], we ran into certain mining difficulties, which has delayed that project. And [Baremanta] again, is issues as Mardyck equipment as well as lack of project experience. At the same time, in Brazil, which is very interesting for us, the flat operation delivered the Vega project on time and on budget, and that has ramped up in record time, actually faster than what we had anticipated or which was in our project approval process.

在[Surro Suel]，我們遇到了一些採礦困難，這推遲了這個專案。而 [Baremanta] 再次存在 Mardyck 設備問題以及缺乏專案經驗。同時，在巴西，這對我們來說非常有趣，平穩運作按時、按預算完成了Vega項目，並且以創紀錄的速度完成了項目，實際上比我們預期的或項目審批過程中的速度要快。

So it's been very interesting learning for us where we see similar geographies, similar teams performed differently. And as a result, we -- just in December, we have created a new global project team at the central level, there's an individual called Bart who is spearheading that to bring in our global expertise to bear because we have the expertise.

因此，當我們發現相似的地理位置、相似的團隊有不同的表現時，這對我們來說是非常有趣的學習。因此，就在 12 月，我們在中央層級成立了一個新的全球專案團隊，由 Bart 負責領導，發揮我們的全球專業知識，因為我們擁有專業知識。

Fundamentally, Arcelor knows how to do projects. We have been delivering projects on time and on budget, but it's not uniform. And the task is really to bring that capability across the organization, so we don't have further projects which get delayed. So I hope that helps answer the question.

從根本上來說，安塞洛知道如何做專案。我們一直按時、按預算交付項目，但並不一致。我們的真正任務是將這種能力推廣到整個組織，這樣我們就不會再有專案被推遲。我希望這有助於回答這個問題。

And maybe just a quick follow-up on the projects. I don't see the doubling of HBI capability in Texas anymore in the release. Is that a project that you've definitively dropped? Or is it tied to decarb in Europe? So any comment there?

或許只是對專案進行快速跟進。在發布中我不再看到德克薩斯州的 HBI 能力翻倍。這是一個你已經徹底放棄的項目嗎？還是它與歐洲的脫碳有關？有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. So it's a good question, and I'm glad you asked it. I think the projects that we have put in our presentation are in the medium-term pipeline. So they're not necessarily in the long-term pipeline. We have a few others just to talk about Brazil for one, where we've talked about expanding our finishing operations, this is [quarter] rolling and [gowt]. We're also thinking that since we are [slad] long to do a hot strip mill, and that's not it.

是的。這是個好問題，我很高興你問了這個問題。我認為我們在介紹中提出的專案正處於中期籌備階段。因此它們不一定在長期規劃中。我們還有其他幾個問題，例如巴西的問題，我們談到了擴大我們的精加工業務，這是[季度]的滾動問題，[咕咕聲]。我們也在想，既然我們渴望做一台熱軋機，那就不是了。

So there are numerous examples in Liberia. We have a very good resource body, an excellent resource body where you can actually do more in Liberia. So the idea now is to hit 20 million tonnes, judge where we are, figure out what is the economics based on the long-term price of iron ore and then decide if we want to continue to grow but those are all options that we have.

利比里亞有很多這樣的例子。我們擁有非常好的資源機構，一個優秀的資源機構，你實際上可以在利比里亞做更多的事情。因此，現在的想法是達到 2000 萬噸，判斷我們所處的位置，根據鐵礦石的長期價格確定經濟效益，然後決定是否要繼續增長，但這些都是我們擁有的選擇。

In Texas, I think what we have done is we have focused our efforts on Calvert right now. So you heard me talk about the projects in Calvert, the electrical steel line, the new EAF. So after all of that, we will reevaluate Texas and you're correct. It's also linked to the progress on European Decarb. So it's not that it's not there in the foreseeable future, it's just not there in the medium term.

在德克薩斯州，我認為我們現在所做的就是將精力集中在卡爾弗特身上。所以你聽到我談論了卡爾弗特的專案、電工鋼生產線和新的電弧爐。所以在經歷這一切之後，我們將重新評估德州，你是對的。這也與歐洲脫碳的進展有關。因此，並不是說在可預見的未來它不存在，只是在中期內它不存在。

And if I could just squeeze one more on projects. Just -- the NGO line in Calvert, it seems the scope of the project is much larger just in electrical line that can be $400 million CapEx. So I see the total CapEx is $1.2 million, [which it] includes a cold rolling mill and other equipment. So can you explain the capacity of the other equipment and explain the rationale of the investment? And does that replace existing capacity as well? And how should we think about it?

如果我可以在專案上再擠出一點時間的話。只是——卡爾弗特的非政府組織線路，似乎專案範圍要大得多，光是電力線路就可能達到 4 億美元的資本支出。所以我看到總資本支出是 120 萬美元，其中包括冷軋機和其他設備。那麼你能解釋一下其他設備的容量並解釋投資的理由嗎？這是否也會取代現有的產能？我們又該如何思考這個問題呢？

So it's all incremental capacity. So there's no replacement. There's no cold rolling mill line for non-grain-oriented steel products. So this is really an electrical steel line. Perhaps you're comparing it to the Mardyck facility, which is roughly the amount reported a bit more than that, but let's use that as a reference.

所以這都是增量容量。因此沒有替代品。目前還沒有生產無取向鋼產品的冷軋生產線。所以這其實是一條電工鋼線。或許您正在將其與 Mardyck 工廠進行比較，其報告金額大致比該工廠略高一些，但我們不妨將其作為參考。

So there are two or three key differences. The first and most important is the US is a greenfield site, right? So we have to do the full construction of the facility, including the whole building. In Mardyck, we were able to utilize an existing building. So construction costs are quite expensive and that adds.

因此，存在兩三個主要差異。第一個也是最重要的一點是美國是個綠地，對嗎？所以我們必須對整個設施進行全面建設，包括整棟建築。在 Mardyck，我們能夠利用現有的建築。因此，建設成本相當昂貴，而且還會增加。

Number two, importantly, the line in the US has even more capability than the line in Europe. And that is a market function. We see that the US market is moving to higher grades for this primarily because of the SUV segment and other unique characteristics of the North American marketplace. And so you need more capable equipment, more equipment, more rolling capability, and that obviously adds to cost.

第二，重要的是，美國的生產線比歐洲的生產線有更強的產能。這就是市場功能。我們看到，美國市場正在朝著更高的等級邁進，主要是因為SUV細分市場和北美市場的其他獨特特徵。因此，你需要更強大的設備、更多的設備、更強的滾動能力，而這顯然會增加成本。

And the third is, obviously, construction costs, manpower costs, steel costs and other costs are higher in the US than they are in Europe. So those are the primary three factors when you make your comparison on the electrical steel line in France and then versus the ones that we're building in Alabama.

第三，顯然美國的建築成本、人力成本、鋼材成本等都高於歐洲。因此，當您將法國的電工鋼生產線與我們在阿拉巴馬州建造的電工鋼生產線進行比較時，這些是主要三個因素。

So we'll move now to our next question, which we will take from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

現在我們進入下一個問題，由摩根士丹利的阿蘭來回答。

Just one question. It's on the buyback program. You are in the final phases of completing your existing program and you expect a positive free cash back in 25%, your share price is trading at a steep discount to fair value. What comes next? What are you thinking going forward? You do have a clear framework. But the question is, are you willing to also stretch your balance sheet to seize the opportunity at the moment? How should we think about it going forward?

只有一個問題。它屬於回購計劃。您正處於完成現有計劃的最後階段，並期望獲得 25% 的免費現金返還，而您的股價正以遠低於公允價值的價格進行交易。接下來是什麼？對未來有什麼打算？你確實有一個清晰的框架。但問題是，您是否願意擴大您的資產負債表以抓住當前的機會？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Okay. Great. Thank you, Alain. So as you heard from us and as you saw from our release, we have done quite a lot in terms of returning capital to shareholders. We think we're unmatched by any peer. That's what we said. So we have bought back 37% of the company. Since 2020, we have generated about $21 billion of cash and about $13.2 billion has been returned to shareholders. So that's very, very significant. We've also increased our base dividend by $0.10 to $0.55 per share. That reflects the buybacks that we have done. It also reflects the underlying resilience/benefits of the growth projects that are underway in the company.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，阿蘭。正如您從我們這裡聽到的以及從我們的發布中看到的，我們在向股東返還資本方面做了很多工作。我們認為無人能與我們相比。我們就是這麼說的。因此，我們回購了該公司37%的股份。自2020年以來，我們已產生約210億美元現金，並向股東返還約132億美元。所以這非常非常重要。我們還將基本股息提高 0.10 美元至每股 0.55 美元。這反映了我們已經完成的回購。它也反映了公司正在進行的成長項目的潛在彈性/優勢。

So you can see that the direction of travel is very clear. We're very focused on returning capital to shareholders. And I think we've done an excellent job in that over the last few years. Going forward, we believe our policy serves us very well which we take the free cash, subtract the minimum dividend and then half of the remaining free cash is returned as capital to shareholders. We think that allows the company to continue to grow, develop its business and also return a significant amount of capital/cash per share. So we're very comfortable with the policy that we have in place.

所以你可以看到行進的方向非常明確。我們非常注重向股東返還資本。我認為過去幾年我們在這方面做得非常出色。展望未來，我們相信我們的政策對我們非常有利，即我們利用自由現金，減去最低股息，然後將剩餘自由現金的一半作為資本返還給股東。我們認為這將使公司繼續成長、發展業務，並獲得每股大量資本/現金的回報。因此，我們對現行的政策非常滿意。

So we'll move to the next question, which we'll take from Matt at Goldman Sachs.

因此我們進入下一個問題，由高盛的馬特來回答。

I'm just -- can we please get a better understanding on the rationale for the timing of this expansion in Liberia. Has the demand outlook for center feed changed? Or has this decision been taken to provide the infrastructure for flexibility and product speck in the future?

我只是——我們能否更理解在利比里亞擴張時機的理由。中心進料的需求前景是否改變了？或者是否已做出此決定以便為未來的靈活性和產品規格提供基礎設施？

Just given some of the pressures we're seeing on high-grade iron ores currently? And then with the spend, are you upsizing the infrastructure to 20 million tonnes? Or will this also now provide a more capital-efficient pathway for that incremental 10 million tons that you may consider in the future?

只是考慮到我們目前看到的高品位鐵礦石面臨的一些壓力嗎？那麼，隨著支出的增加，你們會將基礎建設擴大到 2,000 萬噸嗎？或者這也為您未來可能考慮的增量 1000 萬噸提供了一條資本效率更高的途徑？

Yes. Thank you, Matt. So let me just give you a high level. It will help explain, I hope, your concerns to your question. So we had a new mining team that joined under that leadership. I think the first thing that has been delivered, and you guys have first of all have seen this. Its safe operations and record volumes in Q4 in Mines Canada as well as strong volumes in Liberia in the fourth quarter. We expect that to continue. The team is doing a great job.

是的。謝謝你，馬特。因此，讓我給你一個高水準的介紹。我希望它能幫助解釋您對問題的疑慮。因此，我們在該領導下組建了一個新的採礦團隊。我想這是已經交付的第一件事，你們首先已經看到了這一點。該公司在加拿大礦業部第四季度的安全營運和創紀錄的產量以及第四季度在利比里亞的強勁產量。我們預計這種情況將持續下去。該團隊表現出色。

And the second task that we ask them apart from safe and reliable operations was to relook at the Liberian project. And the team that has joined was at ArcelorMittal a few years ago so you can go through the names as if they've come back. And their thought process was that we should not stop the DSO product. So if you remember, the original project was that we have -- DSO is basically run a mine. We have 5 million tonnes of volume of that presently in Liberia. We start out the concentrator, and we stopped the DSO. So the net increase in volume is about 10 million tonnes.

除了安全可靠的營運之外，我們要求他們的第二項任務是重新審視利比里亞專案。加入的團隊幾年前就在安賽樂米塔爾，因此你可以透過這些名字看出他們好像又回來了。他們的想法是，我們不應該停止 DSO 產品。所以如果你還記得的話，最初的專案是我們——DSO 基本上是在經營一個礦場。目前，利比里亞的庫存量為 500 萬噸。我們啟動濃縮器，並停止DSO。因此淨增加量約為1000萬噸。

So two things. Number one, the resource and reserve base is much greater so we can run product for longer. And number two, we felt that the concentrate product doesn't have such a good market acceptability at center-fed. And so you bring the two ideas together, and we felt that we could maintain a 20 million tonne output mine versus a 15 million tonne, which would require investments in core infrastructure, rail, some blending capability and instead of doing just 15 million tonne concentrate, we're now going to do more center-fed and a little bit of DSO and a little bit concentrate. And so that's really the new concept.

所以有兩件事。首先，資源和儲備基礎更加強大，因此我們可以更長時間地生產產品。第二，我們認為濃縮產品在中心供料方面的市場接受度不太好。因此，將這兩個想法結合起來，我們認為我們可以維持 2000 萬噸產量的礦山，而不是 1500 萬噸，這將需要在核心基礎設施、鐵路、一些混合能力方面進行投資，而且我們現在將不再只生產 1500 萬噸精礦，而是更多地進行中心供料，少量的 DSO 和少量的精礦。這確實是一個新概念。

In terms of capability beyond right now, the investments are there for 20 million tons. But when you make certain investments, the ability to expand capacity obviously is not as expensive because there's been a lot of work done on the port side, for example, has fallen this 20 million trillion tonne expansion. So I hope that helps answer your question, Matt.

就目前的產能而言，投資額為2000萬噸。但是當你進行某些投資時，擴大產能的能力顯然不會那麼昂貴，因為港口方面已經做了很多工作，例如，已經實現了 2000 萬億噸的擴建。所以我希望這能幫助回答你的問題，馬特。

Yes, Aditya. That's not unclear. So really a margin-driven decision, which makes a lot of sense. I have a couple of others, if I may. Just on the Calvert EAF that you're commissioning, when we expect that to reach full capacity? And you touched on sort of an earlier comment just on some slab being sourced domestically, Assuming the CAFs up and running, and you keep that domestic contract in place, how much are you importing into Calvert on the slab side?

是的，阿迪亞。這並不清楚。因此，這確實是一個利潤驅動的決定，而且非常有意義。如果可以的話，我還有其他幾個。就您正在調試的 Calvert EAF 而言，我們預計什麼時候能夠達到滿載生產？您之前提到過一些關於國內採購板坯的評論，假設 CAF 正常運行，並且您保留國內合同，那麼您在板坯方面向卡爾弗特進口了多少板坯？

And then just on more broadly across the portfolio, we've seen in some of your key markets, particularly places like Brazil, just the FX depreciation. How should we be thinking about this in terms of a cost tailwind just given some of your raw materials are all, I guess, priced in US dollars. Are you seeing much of a cost tailwind there?

從更廣泛的投資組合來看，我們看到一些主要市場，特別是巴西等地，外匯出現了貶值。鑑於你們的部分原料都是以美元計價的，我們該如何從成本順風的角度來考慮這個問題？您是否看到那裡的成本順風大幅增加？

Sure. So in terms of Calvert as I mentioned earlier and perhaps you were there, Matt, this is really producing automotive quality steels, exposed quality product. And so there's a qualification process with automotive and that is normal, but that causes the ramp-up to be slower. So we are anticipating roughly 12 months from today for full ramp up full volume of that facility.

當然。因此，就我之前提到的卡爾弗特而言，也許你也在那裡，馬特，這確實是在生產汽車級鋼材，暴露優質產品。因此，汽車行業有一個資格認證流程，這是正常的，但這會導致成長速度變慢。因此，我們預計從今天起大約需要 12 個月的時間才能全面達到該工廠的產能。

In terms of the specifics of volume, I don't know if Genuino can provide you with more color. I think we don't really disclose volume and I'll get him to answer the ForEx question on Brazil.

在音量的具體方面，我不知道Genuino是否可以為您提供更多顏色。我認為我們實際上並沒有披露交易量，我會讓他回答有關巴西的外匯問題。

Yes. Sure. Matt, the FX question, the way we look at it, and you're absolutely right. So we saw a very significant FX volatility during this quarter. The Brazilian real in depreciated significantly, but also in the euros, it was across the board. As we know, I mean, the steel industry is primarily a dollar business. And so then what we normally see is that following a depreciation, domestic prices tend to then be corrected to reflect the new exchange rates.

是的。當然。馬特，關於外匯問題，從我們的角度來看，你完全正確。因此，我們在本季看到非常顯著的外匯波動。巴西雷亞爾大幅貶值，而且兌歐元也全面貶值。眾所周知，鋼鐵業主要是一個賺錢的行業。因此，我們通常會看到，在貶值之後，國內價格往往會進行調整以反映新的匯率。

And then unless the change is so significant that can impact the economies, it tends to be positive to our business, right? Because your cost base in dollars then goes down. Your revenues just adjust to the new exchange rates. And then in the medium to long term, your business is just more profitable. So that's what we see, that's what we typically see when we have significant devaluations.

除非變化太大以至於會對經濟產生影響，否則它往往對我們的業務產生正面影響，對嗎？因為你的美元成本基礎就會下降。您的收入只需根據新的匯率進行調整。從中長期來看，您的業務將更加有利可圖。這就是我們所看到的，這就是我們在貨幣大幅貶值時通常看到的情況。

So we will move to the next question, which I think will take from Dominic at JPMorgan.

因此我們將進入下一個問題，我認為這個問題將由摩根大通的 Dominic 提出。

I just have a few questions. We're starting to see signs of green shoots on pricing in Europe and the US and obviously, some discussions around maybe some import restrictions coming in, in Europe. So just wondering if you could just maybe give us a little bit more color on how you're seeing kind of orders evolving? That would be my first question.

我只是有幾個問題。我們開始看到歐洲和美國定價出現復甦跡象，而且顯然歐洲正在討論可能推出一些進口限制措施。所以我想知道您是否可以向我們稍微介紹一下您所看到的訂單變更？這是我的第一個問題。

Second question, you mentioned your working capital optimization for 2025. I just wonder if you could put -- maybe put a quantum on that in terms of what you think is an optimal working capital carry the forward number into 2025?

第二個問題，您提到了 2025 年的營運資本優化。我只是想知道，您是否可以對此進行量化，即您認為最佳營運資本結轉至 2025 年的數字是多少？

And then final question, just we're getting a lot of questions incoming around Ukraine. And so just as things stand today, could you just maybe give us a sense of how quickly you could return production back to the market? And if it would come with an incremental cost, specifically CapEx?

最後一個問題，我們收到了很多有關烏克蘭的問題。那麼就目前的情況來看，您能否告訴我們，你們能多快將生產恢復到市場？如果它會帶來增量成本，特別是資本支出？

I'll answer the Ukraine, and then I'll Genuino to answer the rest. So in terms of Ukraine, it's obviously been very difficult for our employees and all of us actually to just watch what has happened to our people and to our facilities. As you know, we're operating at about 30% of its capacity. We are a breakeven on an EBITDA basis, but we are losing cash. We have been losing cash since day one of the invasion and that's been -- that's amplified the difficulty.

我先回答烏克蘭的問題，然後請 Genuino 回答剩下的問題。因此就烏克蘭而言，顯然對我們的員工和我們所有人來說，看到我們的人民和我們的設施所遭遇的一切都非常困難。如您所知，我們的營運產能約為30％。我們在 EBITDA 基礎上實現了盈虧平衡，但我們正在虧損。自入侵第一天起，我們就一直在虧損，這進一步加劇了困難。

In terms of moving forward, clearly, we would hit cash breakeven assuming we double utilization rates. That's our expectation. So that would take the facility to about 3 million tonnes. That's still at 60% utilization rate. So there's -- it's still less -- much less than where we were before. To go beyond that would require CapEx, at this point in time, I think it's a bit early to speculate on what that CapEx would be and how we would do it.

從未來發展來看，顯然，假設我們將利用率提高一倍，我們就能達到現金收支平衡。這是我們的期望。這樣一來，該設施的產能將達到約 300 萬噸。利用率仍為 60%。所以 — — 它還是比以前少 — — 少很多。要超越這一點就需要資本支出，目前，我認為現在推測資本支出是多少以及我們將如何實現還為時過早。

I think it also depends on how quickly demand returns what happens in terms of the rebuild plan and what type of piece is actually delivered. So I think I would leave you with a thought that I can quickly bring it back to cash breakeven to a 3 million tonne rate, obviously, depending on prices and stuff like that, it could be even better than cash breakeven and then future steps, we would discuss and elaborate with all of you once there is more clarity. Genuino?

我認為這還取決於需求恢復的速度、重建計劃的進展以及實際交付的產品類型。因此，我想我會給你留下一個想法，我可以很快將其恢復到現金盈虧平衡點，達到 300 萬噸的速度，顯然，這取決於價格和諸如此類的因素，它甚至可能比現金盈虧平衡點更好，然後是未來的步驟，一旦有了更多的清晰度，我們會與大家討論和詳細說明。正品？

Yes, sure. So let me start with Europe then. So in Europe, as we all know, there are important developments that we should see other conclusions very soon. One an important one, of course, is that they ended up investigation against a few Asian countries. So that, of course, can be quite positive to the extent that it's confirmed.

是的，當然。那麼讓我先從歐洲開始。眾所周知，歐洲出現了一些重要的進展，我們很快就會看到其他結論。當然，其中最重要的一點是，他們最終對幾個亞洲國家展開了調查。因此，如果這項結果得到證實，那麼當然可以產生相當正面的影響。

Then a second piece that can be also very important is the review of safeguards that we also expect to be completed very soon. So -- and then what we see right now is the competitiveness of the imports, given where prices are in Europe, it's not so attractive. From our position, our order book for quarter one is almost -- it's basically completed. And I think everybody is looking forward for the trade actions that should potentially improve quite significantly the situation in Europe.

然後，第二件同樣非常重要的事情是對保障措施的審查，我們也希望很快就能完成。所以——我們現在看到的是，考慮到歐洲的價格，進口的競爭力就沒那麼有吸引力。從我們的情況來看，第一季的訂單幾乎已經基本完成。我認為每個人都期待貿易行動，因為這有可能顯著改善歐洲的局勢。

In the US, I think the situation is -- we are starting to see also price announcements, which is good. We'll see how it develops.

在美國，我認為情況是──我們也開始看到價格公告，這是好事。我們將看看事情將如何發展。

In terms of working capital, I think what we are guiding is that based on what we can see today, current market conditions we don't expect to invest in working capital in 2025. Our expectation is to see some release and we are not quantifying that amount right now. But at current market conditions, we should see some release.

在營運資本方面，我認為我們的指導方針是，根據我們今天所看到的情況，在當前的市場條件下，我們預計 2025 年不會投資營運資本。我們的期望是看到一些釋放，但目前我們還沒有量化這筆金額。但在當前的市場條件下，我們應該會看到一些釋放。

We are building inventories, 11 inventories that will be used in one of our facilities in Europe that we're going to need to rely. So we are building that in batteries that we will then, of course, we lease during the year. And as we know also in the first half of 2024, raw materials were more expensive. So we are still working through that. So that should also benefit working capital in 2025.

我們正在建立庫存，總共有 11 個庫存，將用於我們位於歐洲的一家工廠，我們需要依賴這些庫存。因此，我們正在建造電池，然後我們當然會在年內租用這些電池。我們也知道，2024 年上半年原物料價格更昂貴。因此我們仍在努力解決這個問題。因此這也將有利於 2025 年的營運資金。

So we'll move now to take the next question, which will be from Phil at KeyBanc.

現在我們來回答下一個問題，問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Phil。

This is [Djunveo Daniel]. On Automotive in North America and Europe, just broadly, what are you seeing this year? What are you expecting in those markets and regions?

這是[朱尼維奧丹尼爾]。就北美和歐洲的汽車市場而言，今年您看到了什麼？您對這些市場和地區有何期待？

Yes. So we are seeing more stability in North America, Phil. 2024 was a year where it was relatively stable. For us, we gained some market share. We were pleased with that. In Europe, we saw a decline in production, right, 6%, 7%. Some destocking that happened also in the fourth quarter. So the base case for Europe in 2025 with a modest decline in production. That's the latest forecast.

是的。因此我們看到北美更加穩定了，菲爾。 2024年是相對穩定的一年。對我們來說，我們獲得了一些市場份額。我們對此感到很高興。在歐洲，我們看到產量下降了，6%、7%。第四季也出現了一些去庫存的情況。因此，2025 年歐洲的產量基本上會略有下降。這是最新預測。

But there are some offsets. So we have offsets in Brazil, where we continue to see an increase stability in North America and then a small decline in Europe.

但也存在一些偏差。因此，我們在巴西取得了抵消，我們繼續看到北美的穩定成長，而歐洲則是小幅下降。

And just a second question, if I may. Calvert, you've talked about a lot today, a lot of good color, which we appreciate. Has there been any meaningful start-up costs within the results associated with the commissioning of that mill?

如果可以的話，我還有第二個問題。卡爾弗特，你今天談了很多，有很多精彩的見解，我們對此表示感謝。該廠投產後，結果是否包含任何有意義的啟動成本？

So Phil, to let you know, I mean this is the JV so at this point in time in quarter 4, not really.

所以菲爾，讓你知道，我的意思是這是合資企業，所以在第 4 季的這個時間點，事實並非如此。

So we'll move to the next question, which we will take from Bastian at Deutsche Bank.

因此我們進入下一個問題，由德意志銀行的巴斯蒂安來回答。

I've got two questions left, please. My first one is just on your European performance. I guess most of those would have been pretty amazed by your ability to preserve literally flat margins in Europe in a spot environment where hot oil coil spreads have come off by about $100 versus the last few quarters.

我還有兩個問題，請問一下。我的第一個問題是關於你在歐洲的表現。我想大多數人都會對你在現貨環境下保持歐洲利潤率基本持平的能力感到非常驚訝，在現貨環境下，熱油卷價差與過去幾個季度相比已經下降了約 100 美元。

So what exactly has allowed you to perform as well? And has there been any benefits such as energy cost repayments or anything else which supported your cost performance here? And then also, can we expect your margins to already have reflected the low point in the cycle here, which I guess was the second half of last year? That is my first question.

那麼究竟是什麼讓您表現得如此出色呢？是否有任何好處，例如能源成本償還或其他任何好處，支持了你們的成本績效？而且，我們是否可以預期您的利潤率已經反映了此週期的低點，我猜是去年下半年？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Bastian, we are actually very pleased with the performance of European business given the current market conditions. And I think when we explained the performance is a very strong cost performance, right? The fact that if you look at our production, Bas, in quarter 4 compared to last year, you can see that there is a significant improvement.

是的。巴斯蒂安，考慮到目前的市場狀況，我們對歐洲業務的表現實際上非常滿意。而且我認為當我們解釋性能時，其性價比非常強，對嗎？事實上，如果您看一下我們第四季度的產量，與去年同期相比，您會發現有顯著的改善。

Then of course, in the steel industry, when you are producing well, then, of course, your costs come down. I think we had a good performance also in terms of fixed costs. and that is supporting our results in quarter 4 and the whole of 2024. We had a much better year in terms of operations.

當然，在鋼鐵業，當你生產良好時，你的成本當然就會下降。我認為我們在固定成本方面也表現良好。這將支持我們第四季度和整個 2024 年的業績。從營運角度來說，今年我們的業績表現好得多。

And then just my second question is on your footprint. And I guess you've done a lot of changes here over the last few years. I guess, the recent ones in terms of the service centers you've been closing in France, obviously were slightly smaller in nature. But are there any further footprint steps, which you're currently looking at more closely, be it either on the restructuring side, the divestments or be it also on the accusatory side?

我的第二個問題是關於您的足跡。我想過去幾年你們在這裡做了很多改變。我想，就您最近在法國關閉的服務中心而言，顯然規模要小一些。但是，您是否正在密切關注進一步的舉措，無論是在重組方面、資產剝離方面，還是在指控方面？

What was the last word of your sentence? Divestment or?

你這句話的最後一個字是什麼？撤資還是？

Or basically acquisitions, like I guess, is there anything meaningful you currently have on the radar in terms of restructuring or divestments or acquisitions?

或者基本上是收購，就像我猜的那樣，在重組或資產剝離或收購方面，您目前在關注什麼有意義的事情嗎？

Okay. Great. So in terms of Europe, just to provide a little bit more context, fundamentally, as you know, there are three policy issues in Europe. The first is high energy prices, which is impacting the European steel industry.

好的。偉大的。就歐洲而言，我只想提供更多背景信息，從根本上說，如你所知，歐洲有三個政策問題。首先是能源價格高企，這對歐洲鋼鐵業造成了衝擊。

The second is trade. If you look at 4, 5 years ago, imports were 15%, now imports are 27% and this is because the quotas and the safeguard keep on increasing, while the currency of consumption has not. What are the actions that are being undertaken when there is an antidumping case, the second is the safe part measures themselves are being reviewed. And the third after trade is really common regulation. And again, there is a lot of discussion on climate regulation that the C-band needs to be fair and equitable to the domestic European steel industry.

第二是貿易。如果你看看四、五年前，進口占15%，現在進口占27%，這是因為配額和保障措施不斷增加，而消費貨幣卻沒有增加。當發生反傾銷案件時，正在採取什麼行動，第二是安全部件措施本身正在接受審查。繼貿易之後的第三項是真正的共同監管。此外，關於氣候調節的討論也很多，即C波段需要對歐洲國內鋼鐵業公平、公正。

Assuming those things pan out the way we would hope I think the actions that we need to take to further improve the competitiveness and concentrate our operations and improve productivity, we will be more limited in nature. To the extent that those actions don't pan out, then clearly, we will need to act to restore competitiveness to our business. We know how to do it. We've done it in the past. And then we've been embarking on such a strategy. So I hope that answers your question on how we think about our European business and how we can maintain competitiveness going forward.

假設這些事情按照我們希望的方式發展，我認為我們需要採取的行動將進一步提高競爭力、集中我們的業務並提高生產力，但本質上將受到更多限制。如果這些行動沒有奏效，那麼顯然我們需要採取行動來恢復我們業務的競爭力。我們知道如何做。我們以前也這樣做過。然後我們就開始實施這樣的策略。因此，我希望這能回答您的問題，即我們如何看待我們的歐洲業務以及如何在未來保持競爭力。

So we'll move to the next question, which we will take from Boris at Kepler Cheuvreux.

因此我們進入下一個問題，這個問題由 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Boris 來回答。

Maybe as a follow-up on that one, Mr. Mittal, you've been very straightforward regarding these issues, the European footprint faces. How would you say that you had a feeling to have been listened by the European Commission? That's my first question.

米塔爾先生，也許作為對此問題的後續回答，您對歐洲足跡面臨的這些問題已經非常直率了。您如何感受過歐盟委員會聽取了您的意見？這是我的第一個問題。

And second question would be on the Vallourec stake. Today, you have 28%. It's a great asset. You put at a reasonable price. And that now that you have some time -- you've spent some time with the Vallourec team, how do you see the future there in terms of synergies? And why not buy the entire company?

第二個問題是關於 Vallourec 的股份。今天，您有 28%。這是一筆巨大的財富。您給的價格合理。現在您有了一些時間——您已經在 Vallourec 團隊中度過了一段時間，從協同效應的角度來看，您如何看待未來的發展？那為什麼不收購整個公司呢？

Sure. So in terms of your first question, yes, obviously, they have been listened to, but listening is not enough, right? There needs to be action. And that's what we are looking forward to actually in the first half of this year. There has been some action. However, if you had noticed last week, the CSRD regulations were postponed or and change, so that's positive.

當然。所以就您的第一個問題而言，是的，顯然我們已經聽取了他們的意見，但是僅僅聽取是不夠的，對嗎？我們必須採取行動。這其實也是我們對今年上半年的期待。已經採取了一些行動。然而，如果你上週注意到的話，CSRD 法規已被推遲或改變，所以這是積極的。

But we need specific action to support the steel industry of Europe. Energy may take longer because it's a geopolitical issue. But clearly, action on trade, which is under control of European regulators as well as C-band is critical. So there is no change in our thought process. We need this to continue our Decarb journey. We need this to continue to maintain all of our operations. And there is sympathy, but clearly, we want to see the actions accomplished.

但我們需要採取具體行動來支持歐洲鋼鐵工業。能源問題可能需要更長時間，因為這是一個地緣政治問題。但顯然，對受歐洲監管機構控制的貿易以及 C 波段採取的行動至關重要。所以我們的思考過程沒有改變。我們需要它來繼續我們的 Decarb 之旅。我們需要它來繼續維持我們的所有運作。我們對此表示同情，但顯然我們希望看到行動取得成效。

In terms of Vallourec, you're right, it's a great company, it's a great asset. The management team is doing great job. We're very happy with our stake and at this point in time, we have no intentions of increasing it further.

就 Vallourec 而言，您說得對，它是一家偉大的公司，是一筆巨大的財富。管理團隊表現出色。我們對我們的股份非常滿意，目前我們並沒有打算進一步增加股份。

So we'll move to the next question, which we're going to take from Cole at Jefferies.

因此我們進入下一個問題，這個問題由 Jefferies 的 Cole 來回答。

I have two on my side. The first one is just on India. I'd love to get your thoughts on the current trends you're seeing in the market there? And what are the key positives or potential negatives that you're seeing into 2025?

我這邊有兩個。第一個問題是關於印度的。我很想聽聽您對目前那裡的市場趨勢有何看法？您認為 2025 年的主要正面因素和潛在負面因素是什麼？

And then the second question is a bit of a longer one, but I'd love to hear your thoughts how you think about it. Your slide number 2, you've been calling out for a while kind of structurally higher margins through the cycle.

第二個問題有點長，但我很想聽聽你的想法。在您的第二張幻燈片中，您一直在呼籲在整個週期中實現結構性的更高利潤率。

And you've talked about your disposals of businesses and how you've repositioned, but should we think about this into the future that your new CapEx project more value over volume focused, this even at the bottom of the cycle being $130 EBITDA per tonne, is this kind of marking the new trough for you, hopefully, through the cycle? How do you think about that kind of value proposition going forward?

您已經談到了您的業務處置以及如何重新定位，但是我們是否應該考慮未來您的新資本支出項目更加註重價值而不是數量，即使在周期底部也有 130 美元的 EBITDA 每噸，這是否標誌著您的新低谷，希望能夠度過整個週期？您如何看待這種未來的價值主張？

Great. Thank you. Let me talk about India. In terms of India, we had a great investor visit a few months ago. Our people could see that we have a very high-quality asset with a very engaged, passionate and committed team. Our facilities are world-class. They are coastal facilities with very good iron ore linkages. So we have a very, very strong foundation to build on. We are presently building on that. We are doubling the capacity, but it's not only just doubling the capacity.

偉大的。謝謝。先說印度吧。就印度而言，幾個月前我們迎來了一位出色的投資者來訪。我們的員工看到我們擁有非常優質的資產以及一支非常敬業、充滿熱情和奉獻精神的團隊。我們的設施是世界一流的。它們都是沿海設施，與鐵礦石聯繫非常密切。因此，我們擁有非常非常堅實的基礎。我們目前正在在此基礎上進行建設。我們正在將產能提高一倍，但這不僅僅是產能提高一倍而已。

We are investing upstream in terms of iron ore capability and pellet plants, but we're also investing downstream because we are in the process of commissioning downstream automotive facilities, this core rolling mill lines, galv lines. So there is a significant upgrade to the quality and capability of the mill. We're also bringing new products like Magnelis.

我們在鐵礦石產能和球團廠方面進行上游投資，但我們也在下游進行投資，因為我們正在調試下游汽車設施，包括核心軋機生產線和鍍鋅生產線。因此，工廠的品質和能力得到了顯著提升。我們也帶來了 Magnelis 等新產品。

In terms of the short term, the short term is difficult in India. The market is flooded with imports like other parts of the world because of the overcapacity that exists in the global steel industry. What is the government doing? The government is evaluating safeguard action. We should hear the results of their investigation in the first quarter of this year.

從短期來看，印度短期內情勢比較困難。由於全球鋼鐵業產能過剩，印度市場像世界其他地區一樣，進口產品大量湧入。政府在做什麼？政府正在評估保障措施。我們應該會在今年第一季聽到他們的調查結果。

If you were to ask how confident are you that the safeguards would support growth, I'm quite confident. The reason why I'm confident is because India has a very clear strategic direction. They call it Atma Nirbhar Bharat, which basically translates into self-reliance. The reason why we invested in the country in the first place was because of the shift in policy where the Indian government is very clear that they need to make steel domestically.

如果你問我，你對這些保障措施能否支持成長有多大信心，我非常有信心。我之所以有信心，是因為印度有非常明確的戰略方向。他們稱之為“Atma Nirbhar Bharat”，基本意思是自力更生。我們最初在該國投資的原因是印度政府的政策轉變，他們非常清楚需要在國內生產鋼鐵。

Other competitors have spoken out loud that if appropriate safeguard action is not put in place, then it will be difficult for them to continue to expand and to cater to domestic demand. And therefore, I do believe that appropriate action will be taken. It will allow us to continue our growth plan and build on a very excellent foundation that we have in the country already.

其他競爭對手則大聲疾呼，如果不採取適當的保障措施，那麼他們將很難繼續擴張並滿足國內需求。因此，我確實相信我們將採取適當的行動。這將使我們能夠繼續我們的成長計劃，並在我們已在該國擁有的非常好的基礎上再接再厲。

In terms of your second question on structurally higher margins, look, the short answer is yes, because we are not really growing crude steel capacity, right? If you look at the projects that we're doing, they're all value add in nature, whether it's the electrical steel capability in Caliber or even vertical integration and mining supports our business as it lowers the overall see-through cost of our product offering, whether it's all the downstream investments we are doing in Brazil and Calvert also, to the extent that we are growing, we already have the finishing capability.

關於你關於結構性較高利潤率的第二個問題，簡短的回答是肯定的，因為我們實際上並沒有增加粗鋼產能，對嗎？如果你看看我們正在做的項目，它們本質上都是增值的，無論是 Caliber 的電工鋼能力，還是垂直整合和採礦支持我們的業務，因為它降低了我們產品的整體透明成本，無論是我們在巴西和卡爾弗特進行的所有下游投資，就我們正在發展的程度而言，我們已經具備了精加工能力。

So on a per-ton basis, the shipments are not really increasing. This is us moving upstream to capture more of the value, make it melted and import it in the US make it EAF quality, green steels for the marketplace. So fundamentally, the idea is exactly that structurally higher margins. which creates a much better quality business and a much better dynamic for us as we ride through the cycles of the steel industry.

因此以每噸計算，出貨量實際上並沒有增加。這是我們向上游邁進以獲取更多的價值，將其熔化並進口到美國，使其成為符合電爐品質的綠色鋼材，供應市場。因此從根本上來說，這個想法就是結構性地提高利潤率。這將為我們在鋼鐵業週期中創造更優質的業務和更好的動力。

And then maybe just to be helpful and keep the rate -- keep the thread going here. Could you just remind us of some of the actions you've done maybe over the last 5 years that have improved the margins of the Mittal Steel business?

然後也許只是為了有所幫助並保持速率 - 讓線程繼續在這裡運行。您能否回想過去五年來您採取的一些措施，這些措施提高了米塔爾鋼鐵業務的利潤率？

Sure. Many, many actions. I think the biggest one is how we have changed our portfolio, right? And so if you saw, we also announced that absolute carbon emissions are down 50%. So that reflects how our portfolio has shifted to higher-quality assets which are higher quality because of their cost position as well as the quality position in terms of products. So that, I think, is the overarching theme. We have rounded out that asset base with very good acquisitions.

當然。很多、很多的行動。我認為最大的問題是我們如何改變我們的投資組合，對嗎？如果你看到的話，我們也宣布絕對碳排放量下降了 50%。這反映了我們的投資組合轉向更高品質的資產，這些資產由於其成本地位和產品品質地位而品質更高。所以，我認為這是總體主題。我們透過非常好的收購完善了該資產基礎。

So for example, Pecem in Brazil was built at a cost which is a 3x multiple on what we bought it for. It's a world-class lab asset, it's really low cost, highest quality, with multiple growth options. So that's also another example of how we have upgraded our asset portfolio. We talked about Vallourec, that's a grand asset. It's delivering well, the stock has done well, it has a good return. I expect it to have a good cash return as well as time goes by. So that's another example.

舉例來說，巴西佩瑟姆的建設成本是我們購買價格的三倍。這是世界一流的實驗室資產，成本真正低廉，品質最高，並具有多種成長選擇。這也是我們升級資產組合的另一個例子。我們談到了瓦盧瑞克 (Vallourec)，這是一筆寶貴的財富。交付良好，股票表現良好，回報豐厚。我期望隨著時間的推移它能夠獲得良好的現金回報。這是另一個例子。

The Hot strip mill in Mexico is another very good example where we had a slab plant in Mexico that has a very strong market. We invested in the Hot strip mill. It's a great hot strip and you can see that the profitability of Mexico, which is reflected in NAFTA has fundamentally changed, and this is for the domestic Mexican market, it's not for exports to the US So these are a few of the examples. We obviously had our management gains program.

墨西哥的熱軋帶鋼廠是另一個很好的例子，我們在墨西哥有一個板坯廠，擁有非常強大的市場。我們投資了熱軋帶鋼廠。這是一條非常熱門的新聞，你可以看到，墨西哥的盈利能力（這反映在北美自由貿易協定中）已經發生了根本性的變化，這是針對墨西哥國內市場，而不是針對對美國的出口，所以這些只是其中的幾個例子。我們顯然有自己的管理收益計畫。

We had a lot of portfolio optimization in Europe and another places. We don't talk a lot about the continuous improvement, the impact of the R&D and innovation in the company, but all of that translates too. And so that's why you can see that we continue to perform well. We continue to perform or perform at the highest level I should say, actually outperform the competition in the regions in which we operate. And that's fundamentally the dynamic of our business and our company.

我們在歐洲和其他地區進行了大量投資組合優化。我們很少談論持續改進、研發和創新對公司的影響，但所有這些也都很重要。這就是為什麼你可以看到我們繼續表現良好。我們應該說，我們將繼續保持最高水準的表現，實際上在我們開展業務的地區超越競爭對手。這根本就是我們的業務和公司的動態。

So we're moving up against time here. But I think we've got time for another couple of quick questions. So we'll take the first from Timna at Wolfe Research.

所以，我們正在與時間賽跑。但我認為我們還有時間再問幾個簡短的問題。我們首先從 Wolfe Research 的 Timna 那裡獲取答案。

Sorry I dropped off earlier. So I just wanted to ask a few maybe quick ones. One is on the electrical steel in the US The green-oriented steel is really the tight one. Is it possible that you also make that? Or are you just going to focus on non-green, that's one question.

抱歉我提早下班了。所以我只想問幾個可能很快的問題。一個是關於美國的電工鋼，綠色取向鋼確實是比較緊的一個。你可能也會這麼做嗎？或者你只是關注非綠色，這是一個問題。

And the other one is probably not as quick, but on the growth forecast, people watch your forecast very closely, of course, you don't conclude what you think happens in China. So I'd just like to get a little more of your thoughts about China since we've been dancing around this global oversupply. Do you think that they rectify that? Do you think exports could shrink this year? Just your thoughts there, please?

另一個可能沒有那麼快，但在成長預測方面，人們非常密切地關注你的預測，當然，你無法得出你認為中國會發生什麼的結論。因此，既然我們一直在討論全球供應過剩問題，我想多了解一下您對中國的看法。您認為他們會糾正這個錯誤嗎？您認為今年出口會萎縮嗎？請問您只是有這樣的想法嗎？

Sure. In terms of the electrical steel facility, it is non-grain so that's our focus. And these are different markets, right? The [goals] product goes into transformers and the electric grid. The non-grain basically goes into automotive. And the reason why that market has changed, I mean, non-grain always existed. But the reason why it has changed is because of electrical -- electric cars as well as hybrid vehicles.

當然。就電工鋼設施而言，它是非穀物的，所以這是我們的重點。這些是不同的市場，對嗎？[目標]產品進入變壓器和電網。非穀物主要用於汽車產業。而這個市場改變的原因是非穀物一直存在。但其改變的原因是電動車以及混合動力汽車。

And the quality requirements that they have is very different from the usual, I should say, or the commodity type non-grain electrical steels. This is really premium and there's a good price point. And equally important is it continues our franchise, right? We are the leading automotive supplier in the NAFTA market, just in the quality and technical capability that we have, and this continues that franchise that we have as our [sermit goal].

而且它們的品質要求與通常的，或者說商品型無晶粒電工鋼有很大不同。這確實是優質產品，而且價格也合理。同樣重要的是它延續了我們的特許經營權，對嗎？我們是北美自由貿易區市場領先的汽車供應商，憑藉我們擁有的品質和技術能力，這延續了我們作為[塞米特目標]。

In terms of China, look, the high levels are that China is exporting 110 million tonnes of steel. These are record levels. We saw this last in 2015, 2016. But fundamentally, the company did well. We generated over $2 billion of investable free cash flow in spite of 110 million tonnes of Chinese exports.

就中國而言，中國的鋼鐵出口量高達 1.1 億噸。這些都是創紀錄的水平。我們最後一次看到這種情況是在 2015 年和 2016 年。但從基本面來看，該公司表現良好。儘管中國出口量達 1.1 億噸，我們仍產生了超過 20 億美元的可投資自由現金流。

Going forward, I expect a lot of trade actions to level the playing field, whether it's the US NAFTA or Europe or Brazil or India. And perhaps the trade action spurs reduction in overcapacity or reduction of exports in China. That's really the base case, not so focused on what is happening in terms of China, but perhaps the trade actions force capacity rationalization. So I hope that provides you with the flavor of our thought process.

展望未來，我預期許多貿易行動將創造公平的競爭環境，無論是美國北美自由貿易協定、歐洲、巴西或印度。貿易行動或許會刺激中國減少過剩產能或減少出口。這確實是一種基本情況，並不太關注中國的情況，但也許貿易行動會迫使產能合理化。所以我希望這能讓您了解我們的思考過程。

So we'll move now to take the next question, which is from Max at ODDO, and then we'll take one final question after that.

現在我們來回答下一個問題，問題來自 ODDO 的 Max，然後我們再回答最後一個問題。

First question is on the bridge from Q4 to Q1 EBITDA. Can you provide some insight on the moving parts. Traditionally, Q1 has a better seasonality, higher volumes, especially in North America and Europe than Q4. So can we expect an uptick in EBITDA in Q1 versus Q4?

第一個問題是關於從第四季到第一季 EBITDA 的橋樑。您能否提供一些有關活動部件的見解。傳統上，與第四季相比，第一季的季節性更好，銷量更高，尤其是在北美和歐洲。那麼，我們是否可以預期第一季的 EBITDA 會較第四季上升？

Max, let me take this one. So you're right. So going through the regions, starting with the US, our expectation is to see some better shipments. I mean, as we normalize production in (technical difficulty) as well so our expectation is for shipments to be higher. And then in terms of prices and costs, we expect to be relatively stable.

馬克斯，這讓我來接手。所以你是對的。因此，從美國開始，逐一地區來看，我們預計出貨量會有所改善。我的意思是，隨著我們在（技術難度）方面使生產正常化，我們預計出貨量會更高。就價格和成本而言，我們預計會相對穩定。

In Brazil, we also believe that shipments should be relatively stable and prices and costs as well. In Europe, we do expect some positive also volume up, but prices, as we know, in Europe, they took longer to start to show some recovery. We will see our NRP slightly lower in Q1, higher volumes, slightly lower prices and relatively stable costs. On the mining side, we do expect another strong performance. We are expect also our volumes to improve, especially in Liberia and another strong performance in mines, Canada.

在巴西，我們相信出貨量也應該相對穩定，價格和成本也應該相對穩定。在歐洲，我們確實預期交易量也會出現一些正面的成長，但正如我們所知，歐洲的價格需要更長的時間才開始出現復甦。我們將看到我們的 NRP 在第一季略有下降，銷量增加，價格略有下降，成本相對穩定。在採礦方面，我們確實預計會再次出現強勁表現。我們也預計我們的產量將會增加，特別是在利比里亞，以及加拿大礦場的強勁表現。

And second and last one is on the decarbonization agenda. So you're suspending your actions in Europe. But could you give us an update on Canada? Do you see the situation as sufficiently supportive to carry on with your decarbonization expenses there. I think you were planning to complete the transition from 2026 to 2028 or is it on track to do that yet?

第二個也是最後一個是關於脫碳議程。所以你們暫停了在歐洲的行動。但您能向我們介紹一下加拿大的最新情況嗎？您是否認為目前的情況足以支持您繼續在那裡進行脫碳支出？我認為您計劃在 2026 年至 2028 年之間完成過渡，還是目前已經按計劃完成了？

Great. Thank you. So I would say suspended is a very strong word in terms of our Europe Decarb plans. I would say that we are progressing. We have an electric furnace, which is coming on stream in Gijon as well as we are revamping the furnaces in Sestao. So we have some product coming out both long and flat, which is decarbonized in nature.

偉大的。謝謝。因此，我想說，就我們的歐洲脫碳計劃而言，「暫停」是一個非常強烈的詞。我想說我們正在進步。我們擁有一座電爐，它位於希洪，即將投入使用，同時我們正在改造塞斯陶的電爐。因此，我們生產出了一些又長又扁的產品，本質是脫碳的。

In terms of our plans, we are waiting for appropriate regulatory framework to continue on decarbonizing our existing European business. So I think I talked about this a lot in terms of energy, trade and C-band. We need preconditions to continue that and to accelerate the Decarb journey in Europe. And I also mentioned that overall, we're cognizant of the CapEx envelope, the medium-term CapEx envelope $4.5 million to $5 million. So we expect it to be within that envelope.

就我們的計劃而言，我們正在等待適當的監管框架來繼續實現我們現有的歐洲業務脫碳。所以我認為我在能源、貿易和 C 波段方面談論了很多這個問題。我們需要先決條件來繼續這一進程並加速歐洲的脫碳。我還提到，總體而言，我們了解資本支出範圍，中期資本支出範圍為 450 萬美元至 500 萬美元。因此我們希望它在這個範圍內。

In terms of Canada, it's a similar -- similar questions there related to the regulatory environment. which are also connected to what happens with the United States as well as what happens in the elections in Canada, which are forthcoming in 2025. So I don't expect a significant progress in Canada until we have clarity on some of these questions that exist. So I hope that helps. I don't know if there's anything more. Genuino, you want to add on this question?

就加拿大而言，那裡也存在與監管環境相關的類似問題。這也與美國以及 2025 年即將舉行的加拿大選舉有關。因此，在我們弄清楚其中一些現存問題之前，我預計加拿大不會取得重大進展。我希望這會有所幫助。我不知道是否還有其他事情。Genuino，您想補充一下這個問題嗎？

No, Aditya. I think you touched on everything.

不，阿迪亞。我想你已經觸及了一切。

And perhaps at a higher level regarding the cap, so you think that because you are kind of more cautious both in Canada or in Europe, but despite that, are you still thinking that decarbonization is economically viable? Or are you facing some constraints and perhaps you were not expecting a few years ago when you launched these initiatives?

也許在上限方面處於更高的水平，所以您認為這是因為您在加拿大和歐洲都更加謹慎，但儘管如此，您是否仍然認為脫碳在經濟上是可行的？或者您正面臨一些限制，也許幾年前您啟動這些措施時並沒有預料到？

Yes, sure. So I think the key word or the key thought to take away is economic decarbonization. Clearly, we believe it's important for the global steel industry and for us to decarbonize. There's no two ways about that. However, it has to be economic for our industry, otherwise, how are we going to afford it and maintain output and maintain jobs, right? It's not possible.

是的，當然。因此我認為關鍵字或關鍵思想是經濟脫碳。顯然，我們認為脫碳對於全球鋼鐵業和我們都很重要。對此，沒有兩種方法。然而，這對我們的行業來說必須是經濟的，否則，我們如何負擔得起並保持產出和就業，對嗎？這是不可能的。

And what has changed in the last few years is that the pace of policy regulation has slowed down. There has not been the type of action that we had expected. On top of it, specifically in Europe, you have seen an energy crisis unfold, which has also delayed how you decarbonize because when you decarbonize, what you are to do, you're fundamentally substituting coal coking coal with natural gas and electricity. And as you know, in Europe, natural gas has gone through the roof and so as electricity.

而過去幾年的變化是，政策調控的步伐有所放緩。我們並沒有看到預期的行動。除此之外，特別是在歐洲，你們已經看到了能源危機的蔓延，這也推遲了你們的脫碳進程，因為當你脫碳時，你要做的就是從根本上用天然氣和電力代替焦煤。眾所周知，在歐洲，天然氣價格飛漲，電力價格亦是如此。

And cooking coal as a global commodity, has not had that same price action that the other two have had and so it makes it very difficult to move forward without an appropriate regulatory framework. So that's how I would describe it. So the focus of the company is economic decarb. It doesn't mean we're not doing anything. I mean, we've done a lot, right? 50% of absolute admissions are down from 2018 share of EAF is going up from 18% to 25% in the last 6 years. The monies that we have spent on Decarb is generating EBITDA.

而作為全球大宗商品的食用煤，其價格走勢並未像另外兩種大宗商品那樣，因此，在沒有適當的監管框架的情況下，食用煤的發展將十分困難。這就是我的描述。因此，公司的重點是經濟脫碳。這並不意味著我們什麼都不做。我的意思是，我們已經做了很多，對吧？絕對入學人數比 2018 年下降了 50%，而 EAF 的份額在過去 6 年中從 18% 上升到了 25%。我們在 Decarb 上花費的資金正在產生 EBITDA。

And most importantly, our product offering in the marketplace of XCarb products, which is fundamentally net zero green Steel continues to increase, right? It's doubling now. And so I think we are in a good position when it comes to our customers. We're in a competitive position in our business when it comes to our cost base. But -- and just to underline this theme, we have the capability, whether it's people or technology or knowledge to decarbonize. We just need the appropriate policy framework to make it economically viable.

最重要的是，我們在 XCarb 產品市場上供應的產品（根本上是淨零綠色鋼鐵）持續增加，對嗎？現在已翻倍。因此我認為，就客戶而言，我們處於有利地位。就成本基礎而言，我們的業務處於競爭地位。但是——只是為了強調這個主題，我們有能力，無論是人力、技術還是知識來實現脫碳。我們只需要適當的政策架構來使其具有經濟可行性。

So we're going to try and squeeze in one final follow-up question from Tristan at BNP Exane.

因此，我們將嘗試擠出最後一個來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Tristan 的後續問題。

Just on the steel action plan. When you talk about the things you need to see in Europe, the C-band fixed more trade support, other industry have pushed also regarding the time line of a certain regulation like the ETS phase out. Do you believe that is something on the table at the moment? Do you need to see that? And lastly, just a quick update on South Africa, given there's been a lot of headlines, that would be helpful as well.

只是關於鋼鐵行動計劃。當您談到需要在歐洲看到的事情時，C 波段固定了更多的貿易支持，其他行業也在推動某些法規（如 ETS 逐步淘汰）的時間表。您認為這是目前正在討論的事情嗎？你需要看這個嗎？最後，我簡單介紹南非的情況，考慮到已經有很多頭條新聞，這也會有所幫助。

Sure. Look, in terms of regulation. Our focus is C-band and trade. To the extent that the freelance in that's what you're talking about, get extended, that's net positive for the competitiveness of the European steel industry. However, that is not necessarily a precondition, the precondition is really appropriate trade action and appropriate C-band policy.

當然。你看一下，就監管方面而言。我們的重點是C波段和貿易。就您所說的自由職業的程度而言，如果能夠延長，那麼對於歐洲鋼鐵業的競爭力來說，將會產生積極的影響。但是，這不一定是先決條件，先決條件實際上是適當的貿易行動和適當的 C 波段政策。

I think those preconditions are much more than just about Decarb, they're also about the viability, sustainability of the European business. So perhaps that's why we have much more focus on those two initiatives. And you're right, the [Mario drug] report on the new green Industrial deal has really kick started a process within the European Commission, within European governments to reexamine. I think events in the US has accelerated all of that discussion. And clearly, I think the question was asked, are they listening? Yes, of course, they are listening. Key and most important is the actions that they take.

我認為這些先決條件不僅與 Decarb 有關，還與歐洲業務的可行性和永續性有關。所以也許這就是我們更加關注這兩項措施的原因。您說得對，有關新綠色工業協議的（馬裡奧藥品）報告確實啟動了歐盟委員會和歐洲各國政府重新審查的進程。我認為美國發生的事件加速了所有這些討論。顯然，我認為問題是，他們在聽嗎？是的，他們當然在聽。關鍵且最重要的是他們採取的行動。

In terms of South Africa, look, the headlines are around the long business. And then if you look at the along business in South Africa, it's a good operation, it's a good facility. It has been challenged by a scrap imbalance. So what has happened over the years is there is an export tax on scrap. And because there is an export tax on scrap, many millers who want to utilizing the scrap are much more competitive because scrap is very cheap in South Africa relative to other metallics and integrated operation on Newcastle has become competitive.

就南非而言，頭條新聞都是圍繞著長期業務的。如果你看南非的業務，你會發現這是一個很好的運營，一個很好的設施。廢料不平衡問題已成為其面臨的挑戰。所以多年來的情況就是對廢料徵收出口稅。而且由於廢料有出口稅，許多想要利用廢料的磨坊主變得更具競爭力，因為南非的廢料相對於其他金屬來說非常便宜，而且紐卡斯爾的綜合運營已經變得具有競爭力。

And that is not a story of yesterday. It's a story that has been going on for the last few years. And we've been working with the government to try and make that facility competitive, and we are realized we can't. There's not enough support, there's not enough conditions, there's no change in scrap regulations. And therefore, we've taken the decision to shut it down.

這並不是昨天發生的事。這是過去幾年來一直在發生的故事。我們一直在與政府合作，嘗試讓設施具有競爭力，但我們意識到我們做不到。支援不夠，條件不夠，廢料規定沒有改變。因此，我們決定將其關閉。

The other business, the flood business remains viable. So this remains a continuing discussion with the South African government to ensure that the overall answer remains viable, healthy and competitive. I don't know, Genuino, was there anything else you want to add?

另一項業務，即洪水業務仍可行。因此，我們仍需要與南非政府進行持續討論，以確保整體答案仍然可行、健康且具有競爭力。我不知道，Genuino，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's a very good summary, Aditya. And then, of course, South Africa is a listed company being [great] results today. You can also see the earnings release that -- you have more information there, but that's fundamentally where we are in this process.

不，我認為這是一個非常好的總結，阿迪亞。當然，南非是一家上市公司，今天的業績非常好。您還可以查看收益報告——那裡有更多信息，但這基本上就是我們在過程中所處的位置。

Great. Thanks. So that was our last question, so I'll hand back to Aditya for any concluding remarks.

偉大的。謝謝。這是我們的最後一個問題，所以我將把話題交還給阿迪亞，請他做最後總結。

Okay. Great. Let me just reiterate some of our key messages. I hope you have appreciated that our performance demonstrates that we are a transformed company. There were a few questions on that on our cycle through Q3 EBITDA already $130.

好的。偉大的。讓我重申我們的一些關鍵訊息。我希望你們已經意識到，我們的業績顯示我們是一家轉型中的公司。在我們第三季的 EBITDA 週期中，有人對此提出了一些疑問，目前已經達到 1.3 億美元。

As I said before, I passionately believe we have the best talent in the industry. And we are harnessing the style and to outperform the competition. If you look at our numbers on a region-by-region basis, we do really well. We have a very strong balance sheet that allows us to continue to grow in a countercyclical fashion, and has allowed us to return capital to shareholders.

正如我之前所說，我堅信我們擁有業界最優秀的人才。我們正在利用這種風格來超越競爭對手。如果你按地區來查看我們的數據，你會發現我們的表現確實很好。我們擁有非常強勁的資產負債表，這使我們能夠繼續以逆週期的方式成長，並使我們能夠向股東返還資本。

Looking to the medium and longer term, the outlook for our business is clearly positive. We're well positioned to capture demand in growth markets through our strategic investments in India, Brazil and the US These are all very exciting opportunities for us. With that, I will close to the call, and I look forward to speaking with you soon. Thank you.

放眼中期和長期，我們的業務前景顯然是樂觀的。透過在印度、巴西和美國的策略性投資，我們有能力抓住成長市場的需求。我將結束本次通話，並期待盡快與您交談。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。