ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon everyone, this is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress over the first half of 2024. Leading today's call will be our Group CFO, Mr Genuino Christino.

大家下午好，我是安賽樂米塔爾投資人關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。感謝您參加本次電話會議，討論安賽樂米塔爾 2024 年上半年的業績和進展。今天的電話會議將由我們的集團財務長 Genuino Christino 先生主持。

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation, which was published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide number two of that presentation. As normal, Genuino will make some opening remarks before moving directly to the Q&A session. (Event Instructions)

在開始之前，我想提一些家事用品。像往常一樣，我們不會查看今天早上在我們網站上發布的結果演示。不過，我確實想提請您注意該簡報第二張投影片上的免責聲明。像往常一樣，Genuino 將發表一些開場白，然後直接進入問答環節。（活動須知）

Over to you Genuino .

交給你了 Genuino。

Thank you, Daniel, and welcome everyone. I will, as usual, keep my remarks brief and focus on the theme of strategic progress. Beginning first with safety. Across ArcelorMittal, our people are galvanized to improve safety and achieve our goals of being a fatality-free organization as quickly as we can.

謝謝你，丹尼爾，歡迎大家。我將一如既往地簡短發言，聚焦策略進展這個主題。首先從安全開始。在整個安賽樂米塔爾，我們的員工都在積極提高安全性，並儘快實現成為無死亡組織的目標。

The third part safety audit, which started at the end of December, is on schedule to be finalized this quarter. All the groundwork has been completed and dss+ are now developing their actions and recommendations. Combined with the considerable efforts already underway, this will enable us to deliver the safe results we are striving for.

第三部分安全審核於 12 月底開始，預計將於本季完成。所有基礎工作均已完成，dss+ 目前正在製定行動和建議。結合已經進行的大量努力，這將使我們能夠實現我們正在努力爭取的安全結果。

Moving to our financial performance, we have faced our challenges, both macro and micro, during the first half of 2024. But our results have shown good resilience and continue to reflect the positive actions we have taken to optimize our business and high-grade our asset portfolio. The EBITDA per ton of $140 in the first half of 2024 compares well with our long-term history.

談到我們的財務業績，我們在 2024 年上半年面臨宏觀和微觀方面的挑戰。但我們的業績表現出了良好的韌性，並繼續反映了我們為優化業務和高等級資產組合所採取的積極行動。2024 年上半年每噸 EBITDA 為 140 美元，與我們的長期歷史記錄相比較。

Our operating results for the second quarter were broadly stable with the first quarter, despite the challenges faced in certain segments. This really highlights the benefits of our diversified exposure. Pre-cash flow during the quarter was slightly positive, but let me remind you that this is after investment in our strategic growth projects.

儘管某些領域面臨挑戰，但我們第二季的經營業績與第一季基本穩定。這確實凸顯了我們多元化投資的好處。本季的預現金流略為正，但我要提醒您，這是在投資我們的策略性成長項目之後。

Stripping that out, the annualized run rate investable cash flow was about $1.7 billion. Our resilient financial performance and strong balance sheet enable us to be fully focused on strategic execution. And by strategic execution, I mean delivering on our growth projects, realizing the potential of acquired assets, and consistently returning capital to shareholders.

除去這一點，年化運轉率可投資現金流約 17 億美元。我們富有彈性的財務表現和強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠完全專注於策略執行。透過策略執行，我的意思是實現我們的成長項目，實現所收購資產的潛力，並持續向股東返還資本。

Over the past three and a half years, we have invested almost $3 billion in our strategic growth projects. We are developing our upstream resources, including metallics, renewables. We are adding capacity in high-growth markets, including India.

在過去三年半中，我們已在策略性成長項目上投資了近 30 億美元。我們正在開發上游資源，包括金屬、再生能源。我們正在增加包括印度在內的高成長市場的產能。

And we are developing our capabilities to produce higher-margin products and solutions. We recently completed a new cold meal complex at Vega in Brazil and began commissioning our one-gigawatt renewables project in India. Our organic growth has good momentum, with many projects to be commissioned in the coming periods.

我們正在開發生產更高利潤的產品和解決方案的能力。我們最近在巴西維加建造了一個新的冷餐綜合設施，並開始調試我們在印度的 1 吉瓦再生能源專案。我們的有機成長勢頭良好，許多項目將在未來一段時間內投入使用。

The new assets we have acquired in recent periods continue to perform well. We expect to conclude the acquisition of our 28% stake in Vallourec very soon. We have added Italpannelli to support the growth of our construction business within Sustainable Solutions. The fact that we have been able to maintain our growth strategy, despite the challenging macro climate, means that we will enjoy the benefits to EBITDA on top of any cyclical recovery.

我們近期收購的新資產持續表現良好。我們預計很快就會完成對瓦盧瑞克 28% 股份的收購。我們增加了 Italpannelli，以支持永續解決方案中建築業務的成長。儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，我們仍能維持成長策略，這意味著我們將在週期性復甦的基礎上享受 EBITDA 的好處。

Finally, I want to highlight once again our consistent return to shareholders. Over the first half of 2024, we have returned $1.1 billion through buybacks and dividends. This is over 6% of our current market cap. We have now bought back 36% of our equity in less than four years. Given valuation disconnects, our shares remain the best opportunity in the market, so buybacks will continue.

最後，我想再次強調我們對股東的持續回報。2024 年上半年，我們透過回購和股利返還了 11 億美元。這占我們目前市值的 6% 以上。現在，我們在不到四年的時間內回購了 36% 的股權。鑑於估值脫節，我們的股票仍然是市場上最好的機會，因此回購將繼續。

To conclude my opening remarks, we are delivering resilient results, and our performance continues to provide evidence that ArcelorMittal can deliver value through all aspects of the field cycle. We are maintaining a very strong balance sheet, our strategic growth projects have good momentum, and will provide significant structural upside to EBITDA and cash flows on top of any cyclical recovery. And the benefits to our shareholders have been compounded by our continued share buybacks.

最後，我的開場白是，我們正在提供有彈性的結果，我們的業績繼續證明安賽樂米塔爾可以透過現場週期的各個方面創造價值。我們保持著非常強勁的資產負債表，我們的策略性成長項目勢頭良好，並將在任何週期性復甦的基礎上為 EBITDA 和現金流提供顯著的結構性成長。我們持續的股票回購進一步增加了股東的利益。

With that, we are ready now to go to the Q&A.

至此，我們現在準備好要進行問答了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Great, thank you Sharon. So we do have a queue of questions already generally now, so we will take them in the order that they've been put into the system. And so the first we will take from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

太好了，謝謝莎倫。所以我們現在已經有了一系列問題，因此我們將按照它們放入系統的順序進行處理。第一個我們將從摩根士丹利的阿蘭那裡得到。

Hi Alain, how are you?

嗨，阿蘭，你好嗎？

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Firstly on the outlook, Daniel, some of your peers have been profit warning over the last two weeks in Europe. In that context, how do you see the business developing for your Europe division over the next quarter?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。首先，關於前景，丹尼爾，過去兩週歐洲的一些同行發出了盈利警告。在這種情況下，您如何看待下個季度歐洲部門的業務發展？

And in the US, I would say it's the inverse. Your competitors have been increasing prices. Do you see this as a genuine inflection? And what does that mean for your Q3? That's my first question, thanks.

在美國，我想說的是相反的情況。你的競爭對手一直在提高價格。您認為這是真正的改變嗎？這對您的第三季意味著什麼？這是我的第一個問題，謝謝。

Sure, Alain, thank you. Thank you for the question. So let me start first with Europe. As we all know, the market backdrop in Europe is challenging. As we anticipated at the very beginning of the year, we are seeing declining real demand. But we are not changing, even though we have revised downwards our appearance to consumption forecast for Europe for 2024, we are still seeing appearance to consumption to be at least flat, or if not, a small positive, right?

當然，阿蘭，謝謝你。謝謝你的提問。讓我先從歐洲開始。眾所周知，歐洲市場背景充滿挑戰。正如我們年初所預期的那樣，我們看到實際需求正在下降。但我們並沒有改變，儘管我們下調了 2024 年歐洲的消費前景預測，但我們仍然認為消費前景至少持平，或者即使不是持平，也是一個小積極因素，對嗎？

So when we look at our order books also for quarter three, we do see normal seasonality. We are not really seeing something that is more extraordinary than that. And I think it's also important to note that we don't expect the same level of this stock that we saw in 2023.

因此，當我們查看第三季的訂單時，我們確實看到了正常的季節性。我們並沒有真正看到比這更非凡的事情。我認為還需要注意的是，我們預計該股票不會達到 2023 年的水平。

So we do believe that the appearance to consumption in the second half compared to -- second half of last year should be slightly better this year. So and then of course, as we know, in the US, right now, prices have come down significantly. Prices below IPP, which is something unusual. We would expect that to rebalance. So we'll see how it develops.

因此，我們確實認為，與去年下半年相比，今年下半年的消費狀況應該會稍微好一點。當然，正如我們所知，目前在美國，價格已經大幅下降。價格低於 IPP，這是不尋常的。我們預計這會重新平衡。所以我們將看看它如何發展。

Thank you. And what does that mean for the moving part for your business in Europe and the US for Q3?

謝謝。這對於第三季度您在歐洲和美國的業務的變化意味著什麼？

So I will ask Daniel, to talk about the moving parts of all the segments, not only US and Europe. So for the benefit of everyone.

所以我會請丹尼爾談談所有細分市場的變化部分，而不僅僅是美國和歐洲。所以為了大家的利益。

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Genuino. So I think as Alain talked about, I think the main moving parts that we're going to see in Q3 relative to Q2 will be the seasonally lower volumes in Europe and the lagged effect of lower spot prices in [NAFTA].

是的，當然。謝謝，傑努伊諾。因此，我認為正如阿蘭所說，我認為第三季相對於第二季我們將看到的主要變化部分將是歐洲銷售的季節性下降以及歐洲現貨價格較低的滯後效應。[北美自由貿易協定]。

But to provide a little bit more detail and context, I'll go through the various different segments, starting first with North America. So, yes, we will see lower spot prices in Q3 relative to Q2. Volumes, they'll be stable to marginally lower quarter on quarter. And of course, the impact of Mexico in Q3 is expected to be the same as it was in Q2.

但為了提供更多細節和背景，我將先從北美開始，介紹各個不同的部分。因此，是的，我們將看到第三季的現貨價格相對於第二季較低。銷量將穩定在逐季度略有下降的水平。當然，墨西哥對第三季的影響預計將與第二季相同。

In terms of the Brazil segment, look there, we're not anticipating any major movements. So we would expect similar volume and overall pricing to be broadly stable in the Q3 relative to Q2. In Europe, reiterating again that volumes will be lower, but following the normal seasonal pattern. So nothing more exaggerated than our normal seasonal volume pattern in Europe. And that applies to both flat and long products. And yes, we will see the lagged impact of lower prices. But of course, we will also see the impact of lower raw material costs coming through as well.

就巴西市場而言，我們預計不會有任何重大變動。因此，我們預計第三季的銷售和整體定價將與第二季大致穩定。在歐洲，再次重申銷售量將會下降，但遵循正常的季節性模式。因此，沒有什麼比歐洲正常的季節性成交量模式更誇張的了。這適用於扁平材和長材。是的，我們將看到價格下跌的滯後影響。但當然，我們也會看到原料成本下降的影響。

On the India and JVs, I think you will see in Q3 an improvement in volumes. So we have some maintenance in Q2, and so volume should improve in Q3. And then because of those recent higher levels of imports, I think we should probably assume that prices will be slightly lower quarter on quarter. And then in mining, of course, it's difficult to say with accuracy at this point what prices will be quarter on quarter. But in terms of volumes, I think we can confidently expect that they will improve relative to the second quarter.

在印度和合資企業方面，我認為您將在第三季度看到銷售的改善。因此，我們在第二季度進行了一些維護，因此第三季的銷售量應該會有所改善。然後，由於最近進口水平較高，我認為我們可能應該假設價格會逐季略有下降。當然，在採礦業，目前很難準確地說出每季的價格是多少。但就銷量而言，我認為我們可以自信地預期它們將相對於第二季度有所改善。

Thanks, Daniel. And my second question is on Vallourec. So you expect the deal to close in Q3. When should we expect an update on the synergies so that we better understand the value that this investment brings to you, in addition to the simple consolidation of the additional earning stream from Vallourec?

謝謝，丹尼爾。我的第二個問題是關於瓦盧瑞克的。因此，您預計交易將在第三季完成。除了瓦盧瑞克額外收入流的簡單整合之外，我們什麼時候應該期待有關協同效應的最新信息，以便我們更好地了解這項投資給您帶來的價值？

Yeah, Alain, you're right. So our expectation is that the deal should close very soon. It should close now in Q3. And then from that point onwards, of course, we're going to be present also at the board of Vallourec. Our main focus, of course, is to try and support that business. As we said before, we believe that management has been doing a great job.

是的，阿蘭，你說得對。因此，我們的預期是交易應該很快就會完成。它現在應該在第三季關閉。當然，從那時起，我們也將加入瓦盧瑞克董事會。當然，我們的主要重點是嘗試並支持該業務。正如我們之前所說，我們相信管理層做得很好。

So we want to contribute to that. And I'm sure we will be in a position to talk more about potential synergies that, as we know, being a minority shareholder of this business, it will need to be a win-win for both companies. And that's what we're going to, for sure, we'll explore possibilities with them.

所以我們希望為此做出貢獻。我確信我們將能夠更多地討論潛在的協同效應，正如我們所知，作為該業務的少數股東，這需要對兩家公司來說是雙贏的。這就是我們要做的，當然，我們將與他們一起探索可能性。

Thank you. Great.

謝謝。偉大的。

Thanks very much, Alain. So we'll move now to the next question, which we will be taking from Tristan. Please go ahead, Tristan.

非常感謝，阿蘭。現在我們將討論特里斯坦提出的下一個問題。請繼續，特里斯坦。

Yes, thank you for taking my question. Just a few follow-ups on the Q3 guidance. In North America, can you confirm how much time it would take really to restart the blast furnace? And also regarding the other division, which includes Ukraine and South Africa, I think there were expectations of further improvement in the second half.

是的，謝謝您回答我的問題。只是第三季指導的一些後續行動。在北美，您能否確認重啟高爐真正需要多長時間？至於另一個賽區，包括烏克蘭和南非，我認為下半年將會有進一步改善的預期。

So how should we think about that business? Because I believe there's still a lot of tons associated with that EBITDA line. And lastly, to the guidance on Europe, if real demand is down and you expect apparent consumption to be flat to up, does that mean that you expect some level of restocking already in September?

那我們該如何看待這項業務呢？因為我相信還有很多與 EBITDA 相關的東西。最後，對於歐洲的指導，如果實際需求下降並且您預計表觀消費將持平到上升，這是否意味著您預計 9 月已經有一定程度的補貨？

Yeah. Tristan, so let me take the first part of your question. So in Mexico, you specifically asked about the blast furnace. I think it's important, as -- in Mexico, we have two businesses, the most important one, of course, being the plant operations. And that part of the business is up and running. So we have to the end of the blockade, we have started operations already. Of course, we will see an impact as we highlighted in our release in Q3 as well.

是的。特里斯坦，讓我回答你問題的第一部分。所以在墨西哥，你特別詢問了高爐的狀況。我認為這很重要，因為在墨西哥，我們有兩項業務，最重要的一項當然是工廠運作。這部分業務已經啟動並正在運作。所以我們必須到封鎖結束為止，我們已經開始行動了。當然，正如我們在第三季的發布中所強調的那樣，我們也會看到影響。

But that business is up and running. Then we have the blast furnace, which is dedicated to the long business. That part of the business will take a little bit longer to restart. We should be restarting it -- it should take us about two months to be able to restart that part of the business.

但該業務已經啟動並正在運行。然後我們有專門用於長期業務的高爐。這部分業務將需要更長的時間才能重新啟動。我們應該重新啟動它——我們應該需要大約兩個月的時間才能重新啟動這部分業務。

Then -- so the order divisions, so specifically about Ukraine, I think Ukraine did well, given the circumstances in the second quarter. As we highlighted before, we brought back one additional furnace. So they run with two furnaces for most of the quarter. That was helpful. We saw a significant increase in terms of production, shipments.

然後，考慮到第二季的情況，訂單劃分，特別是關於烏克蘭的劃分，我認為烏克蘭做得很好。正如我們之前強調的，我們又帶回了一台熔爐。因此，他們在本季度的大部分時間都使用兩台熔爐運行。這很有幫助。我們看到產量和出貨量顯著增加。

As a result, they were a bit positive in Q2. So that's reassuring. Of course, challenges remain. As we know, power, availability of power, logistics. So we continue to face a number of challenges, but I think Q2 was a good performance.

因此，他們在第二季度的表現有些積極。所以這讓人放心。當然，挑戰依然存在。眾所周知，電力、電力供應、物流。因此，我們繼續面臨許多挑戰，但我認為第二季的表現不錯。

And then in Europe, yes, our guidance, of course, assumes that we will see a bit of restocking overall for the year. I cannot precise if we're going to start to see it already in September, but for the year, for sure, our expectation is that we will see some restocking after coming from years in which we were restocking. So that's, in a nutshell, the position.

然後在歐洲，是的，我們的指導當然假設我們今年總體上會看到一些補貨。我無法確切地說我們是否會在 9 月開始看到它，但對於今年，我們的預期是，在經過幾年的補貨之後，我們肯定會看到一些補貨。簡而言之，這就是立場。

Okay, that's helpful. And another question, then on CBAM. I think you mentioned that you remain optimistic about the commission strengthening the measures. Is there an dialogue at this stage, given the election or changes that are being posed at the moment? And what specifically are you pushing for? And do you think there is a possibility to extend the 2034 deadline for free allocations? Thank you.

好的，這很有幫助。還有一個問題，關於 CBAM。我想你提到你對委員會加強這些措施保持樂觀。鑑於目前的選舉或變化，現階段是否有對話？您具體要推動什麼？您認為有可能延長 2034 年免費分配的期限嗎？謝謝。

Well, Tristan, as we know, CBAM is extremely important for the industry in Europe, right? So at the moment, as we all know, the industry is paying for high costs of CO2 emissions that nobody else is paying. We still have high energy costs in Europe. So at this point in time, the competition is not very fair, right?

嗯，特里斯坦，我們知道，CBAM 對於歐洲的產業極為重要，對吧？因此，眾所周知，目前該行業正在為二氧化碳排放付出高昂的代價，而其他人卻沒有為此付出代價。歐洲的能源成本仍然很高。那麼在這個時間點上，競爭並不是很公平，對吧？

So that's why CBAM is so critical. We have been advocating for it for quite some time. But we know that we need improvements in the way it is designed today. And the key points, first, is to make sure that Europe can be competitive in the export market, so that we have a sort of rebate when we export.

這就是 CBAM 如此重要的原因。我們已經倡導它有一段時間了。但我們知道我們現在的設計方式需要改進。關鍵是，首先，要確保歐洲在出口市場上具有競爭力，這樣我們出口時就能有一定的退稅。

Second, we need to make sure that we avoid circumvention, that there is leakage that produces outside of Europe. They can choose materials that they will send to Europe. Also, we need to make it broader because, of course, there are products coming to Europe that today are not covered by CBAM or finished products.

其次，我們需要確保避免規避，避免在歐洲以外發生洩漏。他們可以選擇發送到歐洲的材料。此外，我們還需要擴大範圍，因為當然，有些進入歐洲的產品目前不屬於 CBAM 或成品的範圍。

So there are a number of points that we believe need to be improved so that CBAM can be effective and then can support the industry and the development of the industry going forward. And then specifically in terms of emissions or certificates, reduction of the certificates, I think this is a dialogue that is ongoing. But at this point in time, we don't really have any specifics to share with you.

因此，我們認為有很多地方需要改進，以便 CBAM 能夠發揮作用，從而支持產業和產業的未來發展。然後，特別是在排放或證書方面，減少證書方面，我認為這是一個正在進行的對話。但目前，我們確實沒有任何具體資訊可以與您分享。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Great. Thanks, Tristan. So we'll move now to the next question, which we'll take from Patrick at Bank of America. Hi, Patrick.

偉大的。謝謝，特里斯坦。現在我們將討論下一個問題，該問題由美國銀行的帕特里克提出。嗨，派崔克。

Hello. Thank you very much for the call. Two questions I wanted to ask. The first one is just on the buyback. So you're about three quarters of the way through the share buyback program and that's running ahead of schedule. I think you're about 60% of the time way through.

你好。非常感謝您的來電。我想問兩個問題。第一個是剛剛回購。因此，股票回購計劃已經完成了大約四分之三，而且比計劃提前了。我認為你大約有 60% 的時間都完成了。

So if it continues at the same pace, would you wait until May 2025, the next shareholder AGM, or is it reasonably easy to reload if you find yourself running up against that 10% authorization? And then maybe linked to that or a second part of that question, how responsive are you to the share price levels?

因此，如果繼續以同樣的速度進行，您會等到 2025 年 5 月下一次股東年度大會嗎？然後可能與該問題或該問題的第二部分相關，您對股價水準的反應如何？

I mean, do you see the stock in the 20s and the low 20s and you think, okay, this is a good opportunity to accelerate the buyback or do you try and do it fairly mechanically where you just say, this is a free cash flow, this is allocation and we're just going to spread it out? That's the first question. Thanks.

我的意思是，你看到這隻股票在20 多歲和20 多歲以下，你會想，好吧，這是一個加速回購的好機會，還是你嘗試機械地進行回購，你只是說，這是自由現金流，這是分配，我們只是將其分散？這是第一個問題。謝謝。

Yeah, Patrick. So regarding the first part of your question, that's easy. So we do have more today authorization that we got from our last AGM. So we could potentially increase the size of the buyback. Right now, as we still have, so at the end of the second quarter, we still had about 24 million shares to be bought.

是的，派崔克。所以關於你問題的第一部分，這很簡單。因此，我們今天確實獲得了上次年度股東大會上獲得的更多授權。因此，我們可能會增加回購規模。目前，我們仍然擁有，所以在第二季末，我們仍然有大約 2400 萬股可供購買。

So it's still a sizable chunk of shares that we need to buy. And we'll see as and when we cross that, we will decide then the next steps. I think that the message is the same that what we have been discussing that the policy is not changing, right?

因此，我們仍然需要購買相當大一部分股票。當我們跨越這個界限時，我們將決定下一步的行動。我認為這個訊息與我們一直在討論的政策沒有改變的訊息是一樣的，對嗎？

So the moment we complete the program, we will, of course, based on our policy, make sure that minimum of 50% of the free cash is distributed to shareholders. Regarding the pace, we are not really trying to time the market. I think the objective, the main objective is to return cash to shareholders. And that's what we have been doing consistently. And regarding the valuation, it was low before, it's even lower today.

因此，當我們完成該計劃時，我們當然會根據我們的政策，確保將至少 50% 的自由現金分配給股東。關於節奏，我們並不是真正試圖把握市場時機。我認為目標，主要目標是向股東返還現金。這就是我們一直在做的事情。至於估值，以前很低，現在更低。

So we feel that it is a good investment, even though now the share price is even lower, but we believe that when the market conditions improve, it will eventually, we will look back and see that the share buybacks really create a lot of value to our shareholders.

所以我們覺得這是一個很好的投資，雖然現在股價更低了，但是我們相信當市場狀況好轉的時候，最終我們會回過頭來看，股票回購確實創造了很多價值致我們的股東。

Okay, thank you very much. And then the second question I wanted to ask was just on the -- there's a section in there where you talk about disciplined capital investment and I suppose requiring returns on any decarbonization CapEx that you spend. I mean, I would think that potentially a quite likely outcome of that approach is that there are going to be plants that are not going to make the hurdle rates for decarbonization unless you get substantial government support.

好的，非常感謝。然後我想問的第二個問題是——其中有一個部分您談論嚴格的資本投資，我想您所花費的任何脫碳資本支出都需要回報。我的意思是，我認為這種方法的一個很可能的結果是，除非得到政府的大力支持，否則有些工廠將無法達到脫碳的門檻。

So I mean, is it not fair to say that you could end up in a situation where you're stuck in that you can't get a return to decarbonize them, you're not getting the funding. And so in that situation, what happens? Do you just run the plant with no reinvestment until the carbon costs are too high and it becomes uneconomic and you close it? Or, you know, if you stick to that completely, then surely that is quite a high likelihood that at least some plants, this is what the ultimate outcome is going to be?

所以我的意思是，如果說你最終可能會陷入無法獲得脫碳回報、無法獲得資金的境地，這是否不公平？那麼在這種情況下，會發生什麼事呢？您是否只是運行該工廠而不進行再投資，直到碳成本太高且變得不經濟而關閉它？或者，你知道，如果你完全堅持這一點，那麼至少某些植物很可能最終會出現這樣的結果？

Well, yeah, I think we can talk about that, Patrick. So I think we have also been very clear that we will invest when it makes economic sense, right? So it's very important that we achieve decent levels of economic return to justify the investment.

嗯，是的，我想我們可以談談這個，派崔克。所以我認為我們也非常清楚，當具有經濟意義時我們就會進行投資，對吧？因此，我們必須實現良好的經濟回報水準來證明投資的合理性，這一點非常重要。

I think that's something that we owe to our shareholders, right? So, and as I talked a little bit earlier, in Europe, we are in a kind of a transition phase where CBAM is not yet effective. Policies, I'm sure they will continue to evolve. We just heard from our President of the Commission, Madeleine also showing more support, of course, for the European industry.

我認為這是我們欠股東的，對嗎？因此，正如我之前所說，在歐洲，我們正處於 CBAM 尚未發揮作用的過渡階段。政策，我相信它們會繼續發展。我們剛剛聽到委員會主席馬德琳也表示了對歐洲工業的更多支持。

Of course, we have to see that supported by more actions, right? But I think we should see those moving parts before we can go ahead, commit all the investments. And we'll see. I mean, as we know, in Europe today, some plants, not us, I think the group is in good shape. We are doing well. But if you look around, you're going to see plants struggling. And that's why in Europe, the industry needs more protection, needs support to develop, as we saw in the US after Section 232, as an example.

當然，我們必須看到更多行動的支持，對嗎？但我認為，在我們繼續進行所有投資之前，我們應該看到這些正在發生的部分。我們拭目以待。我的意思是，正如我們所知，在當今的歐洲，有一些工廠，而不是我們，我認為該集團狀況良好。我們做得很好。但如果你環顧四周，你會發現植物正在掙扎。這就是為什麼在歐洲，該行業需要更多的保護，需要支持才能發展，就像我們在美國第 232 條之後看到的那樣。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Patrick. So we'll now move to the next question, which we will take from Cole at Jeffrey.

謝謝，派崔克。現在我們將討論下一個問題，該問題由 Jeffrey 的 Cole 提出。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I'd just like to hear your thoughts on some of the new trade barriers that you're seeing in Brazil and how that's impacting your business there or supporting it.

午安.感謝您提出問題。我只是想聽聽您對在巴西看到的一些新貿易壁壘的看法，以及這對您在那裡的業務有何影響或支持。

And then you made a preamble on how you've improved the EBITDA per ton of the business. Would you mind just recapping, what are the bigger moving parts of what businesses you've sold and the investments that have improved that EBITDA per ton, if this is the bottom of the cycle? Thank you.

然後您就如何提高每噸業務的 EBITDA 做了序言。如果這是週期的底部，您是否介意簡單回顧一下，您已出售的業務以及提高每噸 EBITDA 的投資中哪些較大的變動部分是什麼？謝謝。

Yeah, sure, Cole. In Brazil, I mean, we have the new quarter and the entire is above the quarter. Of course, it's an important development. So we have about 11 products. So most of the products are flat products. So it should provide some support. We will see in the second half. It's not visible really yet in the second quarter.

是的，當然，科爾。我的意思是，在巴西，我們有新的季度，整個季度都高於該季度。當然，這是一個重要的發展。所以我們大約有11種產品。所以大部分產品都是平板產品。所以它應該提供一些支持。我們將在下半場看到。在第二季度還不太明顯。

In the second quarter, we have not seen, even though we saw a nice improvement in the appearance to consumption in the second quarter, but import levels or market share from imports remain relatively stable at high levels. So we'll have to see. But clearly, I think much more needs to be done. So in this environment where you have China exporting so much, the regions are being impacted directly or indirectly.

在第二季度，我們還沒有看到，盡可能我們看到第二季度消費面貌有不錯的改善，但進口水平或進口市場份額仍然相對穩定在較高水平。所以我們得看看。但顯然，我認為還需要做更多的事情。因此，在中國出口如此之多的環境下，這些地區正受到直接或間接的影響。

So that's why it's so important that we have this trade so that the local industry that is doing the right thing, adjusting production whenever it needs to demand, they don't suffer because one player is not behaving economically.

因此，這就是為什麼我們進行這種貿易如此重要，以便當地產業做正確的事情，在需要需求時調整生產，他們不會因為一個參與者的經濟行為不當時而遭受損失。

And then in terms of the EBITDA per ton, there's quite a lot. And thank you for the question, because this is something that we try to convey this message that the group has changed over the last many years. We have exited a number of businesses that we felt either we were not the right owners or could not be competitive. And just to give a couple of examples, we exited a lot of commodity business in Europe.

然後就每噸的 EBITDA 而言，也相當多。謝謝你提出這個問題，因為這是我們試圖傳達的訊息，即該集團在過去多年中發生了變化。我們已經退出了許多我們認為自己不是合適的所有者或不具備競爭力的企業。舉幾個例子，我們退出了歐洲的許多商品業務。

So investments of Ostrava, [Galați]. We divested also Rebar in Europe. So we invested more in rails. Of course, we have the acquisitions of Votorantim in Brazil with very high levels of profitability. We invested in Pecém in Brazil. Also [Calvert], a number of added value projects that automotive also done. So we have really been working very extensively on the footprint.

所以俄斯特拉發的投資，[加拉尼]。我們也剝離了歐洲的螺紋鋼。因此，我們在鐵路方面投入了更多資金。當然，我們在巴西收購了 Votorantim，獲利水準非常高。我們投資了巴西的 Pecém。還有[Calvert]，汽車產業也完成了一些增值專案。因此，我們確實在足跡方面做了非常廣泛的工作。

Right. And that's why it's visible now. And when you combine that with the balance sheet, with the low level of debt that we have today, that's why we feel so comfortable to even in this challenging macro, we can continue to push forward with our strategy, our investments, our return to shareholders.

正確的。這就是為什麼它現在可見。當你將其與資產負債表結合時，我們今天的債務水平較低，這就是為什麼即使在這個充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下，我們也感到如此放心，我們可以繼續推進我們的策略、我們的投資、我們的回報股東。

And then just as a follow up, there's been some political commentary around Mexico and shipments coming across the border into the US. Would you just mind giving your thoughts on also ArcelorMittal Mexico business and kind of the melt and pour kind of caveat that they were talking about? Thank you.

接下來，圍繞墨西哥和跨境運往美國的貨物出現了一些政治評論。您是否介意對安賽樂米塔爾墨西哥業務以及他們正在談論的熔化和澆注類型的警告發表您的想法？謝謝。

Yeah, well, as a matter of principle, I mean, any agreement as we had an agreement between the US and the Mexican government with the deal to prevent circumvention, we will support that. Right. Coming to our business, Mexico is an important part of our business. We have invested heavily in the last couple of years. We have this new -- brand new hot strip mill that is performing well. And all of our steel in Mexico is melted and poured in Mexico. And so we are not really part of this debate because all of our steel is melted and poured in Mexico.

是的，好吧，作為原則問題，我的意思是，美國和墨西哥政府之間就防止規避協議達成的任何協議，我們都會支持。正確的。就我們的業務而言，墨西哥是我們業務的重要組成部分。過去幾年我們投入了大量資金。我們擁有這台全新的熱軋帶鋼軋機，運作良好。我們在墨西哥的所有鋼材都是在墨西哥熔化和澆注的。因此，我們實際上並不是這場辯論的一部分，因為我們所有的鋼鐵都是在墨西哥熔化和澆注的。

Very clear. Thank you.

非常清楚。謝謝。

Thanks, Cole. So we'll move to the next question, which we will be taking from Tom at Barclays. So please go ahead, Tom, if you can hear us.

謝謝，科爾。因此，我們將轉向下一個問題，該問題將由巴克萊銀行的湯姆提出。所以，湯姆，如果你聽得到我們的話，請繼續。

Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking our questions. Just two for me. The first one, you talked a little bit about how unsustainable steel spreads and steel prices are eating into the cost curve. Maybe you can just give us some thoughts on what needs to happen as a sort of catalyst to actually get that to change. You mentioned sort of swift and effective responses to unfair trade. Have the policies we've already seen, is that going to be enough? Do you need more capacity being taken out? Do you need demand really just to improve? Just curious on what stops it being unsustainable. Thanks.

是的，下午好。感謝您回答我們的問題。對我來說只有兩個。第一個，您談到了不可持續的鋼鐵價差和鋼鐵價格如何侵蝕成本曲線。也許你可以給我們一些關於需要發生什麼作為催化劑來真正改變這種情況的想法。您提到了對不公平貿易的快速有效的反應。我們已經看到的政策夠了嗎？您需要取出更多容量嗎？您真的需要需求來改進嗎？只是好奇是什麼阻止了它的不可持續。謝謝。

Do you want to start, Daniel? Provide your thoughts and then I end.

丹尼爾，你想開始嗎？提出你的想法，然後我就結束了。

Thank you, Genuino. So, yeah, I think there are perhaps several potential triggers, but clearly the best trigger would be an improvement in apparent demand. And that would be triggered really by confidence. So once the market participants become more confident that the real demand recovery is something that they can look forward to, then they're going to start thinking about replenishing their inventories and also the raw materials required to produce their inventories.

謝謝你，傑努伊諾。所以，是的，我認為可能有幾個潛在的觸發因素，但顯然最好的觸發因素是明顯需求的改善。這其實是由信心引發的。因此，一旦市場參與者更加確信真正的需求復甦是他們可以期待的，那麼他們就會開始考慮補充庫存以及生產庫存所需的原材料。

So I think one important trigger could be that improvement in confidence and really just a sense that things are brightening and that the outlook is increasingly positive. Triggers for that could be the interest rate cutting cycle as one obvious point.

因此，我認為一個重要的觸發因素可能是信心的改善，實際上只是一種事情變得光明、前景越來越樂觀的感覺。降息週期可能是觸發這現象的明顯因素。

The second trigger can really also be just this sense that things can't go any lower. So often what we see is that when steel prices have negative momentum, where possible, market participants will be de-stocking, they'll be sitting on their hands, taking a wait and see attitude. But when they believe that the risk to the downside is extremely limited, then there can be that kind of sense that I want to get a little bit more onto the front foot and start thinking about building some inventory before steel prices start to move in the opposite direction and that in itself can act as a trigger.

第二個觸發因素實際上也可能是這種感覺，即事情已經不能再惡化了。我們經常看到的是，當鋼價出現負面動能時，市場參與者在可能的情況下會去庫存，他們會按兵不動，採取觀望態度。但當他們認為下行風險極其有限時，就會有這樣一種感覺，即我想多做一點準備，並開始考慮在鋼價開始上漲之前建立一些庫存。 。

And then the third trigger would be on the supply side. So either you see the high cost producers having to really cut production or we see a better domestic market share, i.e. less import penetration. So those would be the three catalysts. And we'll see which of those is ultimately the trigger to start moving pricing higher from the current levels.

第三個觸發因素是供給側。因此，要嘛你看到高成本生產商必須真正削減產量，要嘛我們看到更好的國內市場份額，即進口滲透率較低。這些就是三個催化劑。我們將看看其中哪一個最終會觸發價格從當前水平提高。

Got it. Thank you. And then just some very quick clarification questions, please. So earlier you mentioned, Daniel, Mexico strike impact. You think it'll be the same in Q3. Could I just clarify if that was earnings, volumes, or both?

知道了。謝謝。然後請快速回答一些問題。丹尼爾，你之前提到墨西哥罷工的影響。您認為第三季也會如此。我能否澄清一下這是收入、銷售還是兩者兼而有之？

And then also in the release, you guys talked about reversing $1.6 billion of networking capital bill that you had in H1. Is that a sort of firm target? Is that like a minimum release that we're sort of expecting? Yeah, just any color that would be helpful. Thank you.

然後還在新聞稿中，你們談到了扭轉上半年 16 億美元的網路資本支出。這是一種堅定的目標嗎？這是否是我們所期待的最低版本？是的，任何有幫助的顏色都可以。謝謝。

So I'll take the second one, and Daniel can comment on the impacts of the blockade in Mexico. Clearly, we believe that we will see a reversal of the investments that we made in the second half. As we know, we're still carrying now inventories because of the weighted average impact, high cost materials coming from Q4, Q1 of last year.

所以我將採取第二個，丹尼爾可以評論墨西哥封鎖的影響。顯然，我們相信下半年的投資將會逆轉。據我們所知，由於去年第四季、第一季的加權平均影響和高成本材料的影響，我們現在仍然持有庫存。

So we'll see that. We'll work through that. But I think the message to the business is that, and given everything that we have just discussed, that we remain hopeful that we will see a better 2025 in terms of real demand. I think it's very important that we are ready for that.

所以我們會看到這一點。我們會解決這個問題。但我認為向企業傳達的訊息是，考慮到我們剛才討論的一切，我們仍然希望 2025 年的實際需求會更好。我認為我們為此做好準備非常重要。

And the instruction to the units is that we should just have the right level of working capital to what we believe we're going to need, looking at the demand that we have in front of us. So I would not jump to conclusions that we can see even more.

對各單位的指示是，我們應該根據我們所面臨的需求，擁有我們認為需要的適當水準的營運資金。所以我不會急於下結論說我們可以看到更多。

I think I will be happy to see that reversing as we have guided. And then we'll see, of course, where we landed at the end of the year. As we all know also that it's challenging to predict so precisely the evolution of working capital, but the $1.6 billion, we feel comfortable.

我想我會很高興看到這種情況按照我們的指導發生逆轉。當然，然後我們會看到我們在年底的表現。我們也知道，如此精確地預測營運資金的演變是一項挑戰，但 16 億美元的數字讓我們感到放心。

Daniel?

丹尼爾？

Yeah, sorry. So then on Mexico, Tom, I can -- yes, I can confirm that. So in terms of the volume, we would expect a similar impact in Q3 and Q2 from the blockade to about 400,000 tons and therefore the same profitability impact of about 0.1 billion dollars. So no delta quarter on quarter.

是的，抱歉。那麼關於墨西哥，湯姆，我可以——是的，我可以確認這一點。因此，就數量而言，我們預計封鎖對第三季和第二季的影響類似，約為 40 萬噸，因此獲利能力也將受到約 1 億美元的影響。因此，季度與季度之間沒有增量。

Okay. So there's no sort of like catch up with the sort of bonus payments and back pay that's not going to have a sort of incremental impact in Q3. It's all sort of vacant.

好的。因此，沒有任何類似的獎金支付和拖欠工資不會在第三季度產生增量影響。一切都是空的。

So no. So yes, you should just assume no delta from that specific effect Q3 versus Q2.

所以不。所以是的，您應該假設 Q3 與 Q2 的特定效果沒有增量。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Tom. So we will take the next question from Ephrem at Citi Group. So please go ahead, Ephraim, if you can hear us.

謝謝，湯姆。我們將回答花旗集團 Ephrem 的下一個問題。所以，以法蓮，如果你聽得到我們的話，請繼續。

Thank you. Can you hear me?

謝謝。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

是的，我們可以。

Yeah. So three tiny clarification questions. Firstly, the doubling of the EBITDA in the sustainable solutions by 2028, is that just the impact from Italpannelli and India Renewables, correct?

是的。這是三個小小的澄清問題。首先，到 2028 年，永續解決方案的 EBITDA 將翻一番，這只是 Italpannelli 和印度再生能源公司的影響，對嗎？

I mean, it does not include the impact of future acquisitions and things like Vallourec, which I assume will be put under sustainable solutions. The reason is maybe roughly $100 million incremental from India Renewables and $150 million from Vallourec plus some from Italpannelli. You're pretty much there for your 2028 target.

我的意思是，它不包括未來收購和瓦盧瑞克等公司的影響，我認為這些公司將被納入永續解決方案。原因可能是印度再生能源公司增加了大約 1 億美元，瓦盧瑞克增加了 1.5 億美元，再加上義大利潘內利增加了一些美元。您已經基本達成 2028 年目標了。

No, I think the Vallourec, as will be part of our JVs, right? So it's an equity stake, 28%. So it will be reported as part of JVs. Italpannelli and the renewable project in India, yes, it will be part of sustainable solutions. But look, I mean, we have high ambitions for this part of the business. So the renewable project in India and Italpannelli will not take us to the target. So we still have work to do and we're excited to see that through. We have a number of nice projects in front of us that we feel that we're going to be able to add a lot of value.

不，我認為瓦盧瑞克將成為我們合資企業的一部分，對吧？所以這是股權，28%。因此，它將作為合資企業的一部分進行報告。Italpannelli 和印度的可再生能源項目，是的，它將成為永續解決方案的一部分。但我的意思是，我們對這部分業務抱有很高的雄心。因此，印度和 Italpannelli 的再生能源計畫不會讓我們實現目標。因此，我們仍然有工作要做，我們很高興看到這一點。我們面前有許多不錯的項目，我們認為我們將能夠增加很多價值。

Thank you. Second, how much of the working capital build was due to Mexico, if you can quantify that, just to get comfort around the $1.6 billion release, because that's easy value.

謝謝。其次，有多少營運資金是來自墨西哥，如果你能量化的話，只是為了對 16 億美元的釋放感到安慰，因為這是很容易得到的價值。

Look, to be honest, it's because if you look at the shipments in our log business, you're not going to see that there is actually a bit of an increase, right? So we were able to mitigate some of the blockade impacts by, in case of logs, because we have different locations, we were able to continue to ship that materials, right?

說實話，這是因為如果你看看我們原木業務的出貨量，你不會發現實際上有一點成長，對吧？因此，我們能夠減輕一些封鎖影響，就原木而言，因為我們有不同的地點，所以我們能夠繼續運送這些材料，對嗎？

And that is, of course, some raw materials that could not be transformed. But we are not quantifying that, but again, I think you can assume that we feel at this point, seeing what we have in front of us, we feel good about the release in the second half. More so, I would say, more so in Q4 than in Q3, right? As it is typical, the pattern.

當然，那是一些無法轉化的原料。但我們並沒有量化這一點，但我想你可以假設我們現在感覺，看到我們面前的情況，我們對下半年的發布感覺很好。我想說，第四季比第三季更是如此，對嗎？因為它是典型的，模式。

Yeah, seasonality, yeah. Thank you. And the third question, the DR pellet projects, the 5 million tons from blast furnace to DR pellet, can you give us a sense as to the CapEx that's involved in that? Because the DR pellet premium over blast furnace pellet has been $5, $6 per ton on average, so just want to sense kind of how much incremental return if the spot premiums hold. Obviously, if the premiums go up in the future, it goes up.

是的，季節性，是的。謝謝。第三個問題，DR 球團礦項目，500 萬噸從高爐到 DR 球團礦，您能給我們介紹其中涉及的資本支出嗎？由於 DR 球團礦相對於高爐球團礦的溢價平均為每噸 5 至 6 美元，因此只想了解如果現貨溢價保持不變，增量回報有多少。顯然，如果未來保費上漲，它就會上漲。

Yeah. Danny, do you want to talk about that?

是的。丹尼，你想談談這個嗎？

Yeah, sure. So, we have announced $200 million was the CapEx on that project. In terms of the premier, I think this past quarter it has been about $8 a ton. But of course, I think the important thing as we move forward is that -- we know we're going to need more of this type of material as we look to expand our DRI capacity. We have the Texas project under consideration and that there's an appealing opportunity there to double our capacity at DRI in Texas. So, we're going to need more feedstock for that type of project.

是的，當然。因此，我們宣布該項目的資本支出為 2 億美元。就首要而言，我認為上個季度的價格約為每噸 8 美元。但當然，我認為隨著我們前進，重要的是——我們知道，當我們尋求擴大 DRI 產能時，我們將需要更多此類材料。我們正在考慮德克薩斯州的項目，那裡有一個誘人的機會，可以使我們在德克薩斯州 DRI 的產能翻倍。因此，我們將需要更多的原料來完成此類專案。

So, would it be fair to say that most of that incremental 5 million tons would be going internally to other ArcelorMittal plants?

那麼，可以公平地說，新增的 500 萬噸產量中的大部分將流向其他安賽樂米塔爾工廠嗎？

Yeah, I think that's a fair assumption. And also, I would just add to what Daniel said that we're going to be able to keep the flexibility. So, we're going to be able to have either DRI pellets or BF pellets. So, we are not giving up that flexibility.

是的，我認為這是一個合理的假設。另外，我想補充一下丹尼爾所說的，我們將能夠保持靈活性。因此，我們將能夠使用 DRI 顆粒或 BF 顆粒。因此，我們不會放棄這種靈活性。

Thank you. That's it from me.

謝謝。這就是我說的。

Okay. Thanks. So, we will move to the next question, which we will take from Dominic at JP Morgan. Please go ahead, Dominic.

好的。謝謝。因此，我們將轉向下一個問題，該問題將由摩根大通的多明尼克提出。請繼續，多米尼克。

Hi, guys. Just two quick questions for me. Just one on clarification. So, again, looking into H2 and on CapEx. So, there's a little bit of a step up to the top ends of guidance for CapEx in H2. Is there a risk of an underspend on CapEx or are you very, very confident you'll come in sort of within that range?

嗨，大家好。我只想問兩個簡單的問題。只是澄清一點。因此，再次研究 H2 和資本支出。因此，下半年資本支出指引的上限有一點進步。是否有資本支出不足的風險，或者您非常非常有信心自己會在這個範圍內？

And then second question, we hear commentary, we sort of see the numbers on inventories for US, Europe. But just wondering if we could push you a little bit further on kind of what you see and what you see in terms of lead times for US and Europe and the extent to which we could see those markets tightening quite rapidly as we move into an interest rate cutting cycle.

第二個問題，我們聽到評論，我們看到了美國和歐洲的庫存數據。但只是想知道我們是否可以進一步向您介紹一下您所看到的情況以及您在美國和歐洲的交貨時間方面所看到的情況，以及當我們感興趣時我們可以看到這些市場迅速收緊的程度降息週期。

Yeah. So, the CapEx, I think we are not changing our guidance. So, we're still retaining our guidance of $4.5 billion to $5 billion. In the H1, I believe we were at about $2.2 billion. So, it's slightly, if you analyze that, a little bit lower than the bottom end of the range. But at this point, we feel comfortable that it's just timing. So, we should be within our range. Then in terms of inventories, I think lead times are short.

是的。因此，就資本支出而言，我認為我們不會改變我們的指導。因此，我們仍然保留 45 億至 50 億美元的指引。我相信上半年我們的營收約為 22 億美元。因此，如果您進行分析，它會略低於該範圍的底端。但在這一點上，我們感到放心，這只是時機。所以，我們應該在我們的範圍內。然後就庫存而言，我認為交貨時間很短。

Dominic, I would say both in, and that's typically the case, right, when demand is relatively weak. So, lead times remain at, I would say, at the low end of the range. And the moment, again -- the moment we see a rebound in terms of the demand, real demand, we see some pickup in inventories. That is typically when you see that lead times becoming longer, and that then tends to drive very quickly, can drive very quickly prices up.

多明尼克，我想說的是，當需求相對疲軟時，通常就是這種情況。因此，我想說，交貨時間仍處於範圍的低端。再次，當我們看到需求、實際需求反彈時，我們會看到庫存回升。通常，當您看到交貨時間變得更長，然後往往會非常快地推動時，就會很快推動價格上漲。

Great. Thanks, Dominic. I'm not sure if you have a follow-up.

偉大的。謝謝，多米尼克。我不確定你是否有後續行動。

No, it's okay. Thanks.

不，沒關係。謝謝。

Great. Thank you. So, in that case, we will move to our next question, which we will take from Matt at Goldman Sachs. So, please go ahead, Matt.

偉大的。謝謝。因此，在這種情況下，我們將轉向下一個問題，該問題將由高盛的馬特提出。所以，請繼續，馬特。

Hi, good afternoon. Just a quick question on India. You and your peers have described these low-cost imports from China as a predatory pricing strategy. And I guess we've seen the rest of the world move quite quickly to protect domestic markets. So, my question is, has the Indian government been receptive to your concerns? And to the extent you can, please comment on Mattel's stance and the level of protectionist measures you'd like to see introduced?

嗨，下午好。關於印度的一個簡單問題。您和您的同行將這些來自中國的低成本進口產品描述為掠奪性定價策略。我想我們已經看到世界其他地區迅速採取行動保護國內市場。那麼，我的問題是，印度政府是否接受了你的擔憂？請盡可能評論美泰的立場以及您希望看到的保護主義措施的程度？

Well, I think the whole industry in India is, of course, concerned about the level of imports coming from China as any other region in the world. There is, of course, dialogue. I think the government understands the challenge. And I think there is a lot of focus from the Indian government to make sure that the industry can continue to develop. Right?

嗯，我認為印度整個產業當然像世界其他地區一樣擔心來自中國的進口水準。當然，還有對話。我認為政府理解這項挑戰。我認為印度政府非常重視確保該產業能夠繼續發展。正確的？

I mean, when you look at our materials, look at the forecast that we have for burnt steel consumption in India, it will grow so much in the next 10, 12 years. Then it's absolutely critical that the industry can develop. Right?

我的意思是，當你看看我們的材料時，看看我們對印度燒鋼消耗量的預測，未來 10 年、12 年它將增長如此之多。那麼這個產業能否發展絕對至關重要。正確的？

And of course, the Indian government doesn't want to be dependent on materials coming from China. So, I think it's a matter of time. So, if China doesn't correct course, then I think it's just a matter of time to see more protection, as we saw back in '15, '16. So, that's when a lot of trade actions started. And we are, again, starting to see that Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, different parts of the world are also starting to respond to that. And for sure, that should also happen there against China.

當然，印度政府不想依賴來自中國的材料。所以，我認為這只是時間問題。因此，如果中國不糾正方向，那麼我認為看到更多保護只是時間問題，正如我們在 15、16 年所看到的那樣。所以，很多貿易行動就是從那時開始的。我們再次開始看到墨西哥、巴西、南非以及世界各地也開始對此做出反應。當然，這也應該發生在對中國的比賽中。

That's helpful. Thank you. And I guess just following on from that, with the JV, you've long said that you expect it to remain self-funded. But I guess if we see EBITDA per tonne at current levels continuing, can this JV continue to self-fund the Phase 1A growth plan?

這很有幫助。謝謝。我想接下來，對於合資企業，您早就說過您希望它保持自籌資金。但我想，如果我們看到每噸 EBITDA 繼續維持目前的水平，這家合資企業能否繼續為 1A 階段的成長計畫提供資金？

Yeah, we feel very comfortable about that. As a matter of fact, if you look at even in this challenging market conditions, and we had maintenance in our JV in the second quarter, and if you look at the profitability there, still decent. We have very low cash needs. So, the normal business in terms of maintenance, CapEx, interest costs, extremely low. So, this business generates good level of free cash. But more importantly, of course, we have already signed a credit line that will allow us to complete this first expansion to 50 million tonnes.

是的，我們對此感到非常舒適。事實上，即使在這個充滿挑戰的市場條件下，我們在第二季度對合資企業進行了維護，如果你看看那裡的盈利能力，仍然不錯。我們的現金需求非常低。所以，正常的業務無論在維修、CapEx、利息成本方面，都是極低的。因此，這項業務產生了大量的自由現金。但當然更重要的是，我們已經簽署了信貸額度，這將使我們能夠完成首次產能擴張至 5,000 萬噸。

And that's transformational, right? So, when you do that, you achieve this 50 million tonnes, and you start to deliver on the EBITDA, and then the free cash follows and makes it much easier then to continue the process, the expansion. I think the challenge that we have in India is to make sure that we can keep pace with the market and make sure that we can not only retain but increase our market share in that market.

這是變革性的，對吧？因此，當你這樣做時，你就實現了 5000 萬噸，並開始交付 EBITDA，然後自由現金隨之而來，並使繼續這一過程和擴張變得更加容易。我認為我們在印度面臨的挑戰是確保我們能夠跟上市場的步伐，並確保我們不僅能夠保留而且能夠增加我們在該市場的市場份額。

That's great. Thanks, Genuino. And if I could just ask a quick clarification question, at a group level, you're expecting about a 10 million tonne increase in iron ore into 2025. Can you please give a breakdown on the components coming from Liberia and Serra Azul, just given that both are finishing in the second half and will be ramping up next year? Thanks.

那太棒了。謝謝，傑努伊諾。如果我可以問一個快速澄清的問題，在集團層面，您預計到 2025 年鐵礦石產量將增加約 1000 萬噸。您能否詳細說明來自利比里亞和塞拉阿祖爾的組件，因為這兩個組件都在下半年完成，並將在明年增加？謝謝。

Okay. Daniel, do you want to provide that?

好的。丹尼爾，你想提供這個嗎？

Yeah, thank you, Genuino. So, I think when we look at our bridge from first half '24 to that 50 million tonne number in 2025, first of all, I think we would be expecting a better volume performance in the second half. Obviously, the Q2 numbers were held back by maintenance in Canada and also the impact of those wildfires. So, second half volumes should already be better than the first half run rate. And then the key deltas in 2025 versus 2024, it really will be Liberia.

是的，謝謝你，傑努伊諾。因此，我認為，當我們審視從 24 年上半年到 2025 年 5000 萬噸的數字時，首先，我認為我們預計下半年會有更好的銷售表現。顯然，第二季的數據受到加拿大維護以及野火影響的影響。因此，下半年的成交量應該已經比上半年的運行率更好。與 2024 年相比，2025 年的關鍵三角洲確實是利比里亞。

So, we're on course to have the first concentrate available at the end of the year and then that will continue to ramp up as we move through 2024. So, at this stage, we would be expecting at least a 10 million tonne volume performance from Liberia in 2025. So, a significant step up from the 2024 level.

因此，我們計劃在今年年底推出第一批濃縮液，然後隨著 2024 年的到來，這一數量將繼續增加。因此，在現階段，我們預計 2025 年利比里亞的產量將至少達到 1,000 萬噸。因此，與 2024 年的水準相比，這是一個顯著的進步。

And then, yes, you mentioned the Serra Azul. So, that's really the other main delta when we look at 2025 versus 2024. Hopefully, that works for you, Matt?

然後，是的，你提到了蔚藍山脈。因此，當我們比較 2025 年和 2024 年時，這確實是另一個主要增量。希望這對你有用，馬特？

Yeah, yeah. Thanks, Daniel.

是啊是啊。謝謝，丹尼爾。

Great, thank you. So, we will move to the next question, which we will take from Andrew at UBS. So, please go ahead, Andrew, if you can hear us.

太好了，謝謝。因此，我們將轉向下一個問題，該問題將由瑞銀集團的安德魯提出。所以，安德魯，如果你能聽到我們的話，請繼續。

So, just on the follow-up to one of your previous questions about, what turns market in Europe. I mean, you obviously talked about potential for restocking, demand picking up, interest rates falling, et cetera. On the demand, all that was on the demand side. Then you just mentioned some of the potential high-cost blast furnace closures.

那麼，就您之前提出的問題之一的後續問題，即歐洲市場的發展趨勢。我的意思是，您顯然談到了補充庫存、需求回升、利率下降等潛力。在需求方面，一切都在需求方面。然後您剛才提到了一些潛在的高成本關閉高爐。

Your shipment levels at the moment are running pretty high. And in the past, you've been one of the leaders in taking out capacity on those down cycles. I'm curious to see, in the coming months, what planned normal maintenance is for over the summer, which blast furnaces potentially will be down? And then, how much worse do things have to get for you to start actually closing blast furnace capacity? Or, is it just a case of you're very confident that demand will turn and therefore you don't feel this time around you need to do much?

你們目前的出貨量相當高。過去，您一直是經濟下行週期中釋放產能的領導者之一。我很好奇，在接下來的幾個月裡，夏季的正常維護計畫是什麼，哪些高爐可能會停機？然後，情況要變得多糟糕才能開始真正關閉高爐產能？或者，這只是您非常有信心需求會發生變化，因此您覺得這次不需要做太多事情？

Yes, Andrew. Well, so you're right. So we are running today all of our furnaces with the exception of one furnace in force as we talked about before. And I think as I said at the beginning also, so when we look at our order books, we feel okay, so we will have the normal seasonality?

是的，安德魯。嗯，所以你是對的。因此，今天我們正在運行所有熔爐，除了我們之前談到的一台有效熔爐之外。我想正如我一開始所說的那樣，所以當我們查看我們的訂單簿時，我們感覺還不錯，所以我們會有正常的季節性？

We will -- we are not we don't really have in the second half any major maintenance foreseen for the furnaces. As we have we did a lot of work on that last year and we will sell we will produce what we can sell, Andrew. So to the extent and if that's the beauty of the ArcelorMittal footprint, right?

我們會—我們不會，我們實際上並沒有預計下半年會對熔爐進行任何重大維護。正如我們去年在這方面做了很多工作，我們將出售我們將生產我們可以出售的東西，安德魯。那麼，這是否就是安賽樂米塔爾足跡的美麗之處，對吧？

So if we feel that we don't have enough demand in front of us, we have the options to reduce capacity to bring down one furnace when we can adjust the capacity of different furnaces. And we will and if we get to that point, we will as we did in the past, we will take that call. But right now, we don't see the need. So we continue to move forward.

因此，如果我們覺得我們面前沒有足夠的需求，當我們可以調整不同熔爐的產能時，我們可以選擇減少產能以關閉一台熔爐。我們會的，如果我們達到這一點，我們會像過去一樣，我們會接受這個電話。但現在，我們認為沒有必要。所以我們繼續前進。

Okay, now that's clear. Thank you.

好吧，現在清楚了。謝謝。

Great, thanks, Andrew. So, we will now move to our next question, which we're going to take from Max at ODDO. So, go ahead, Max, if you can hear us.

太好了，謝謝，安德魯。現在，我們將討論下一個問題，該問題由 ODDO 的 Max 提出。所以，麥克斯，如果你聽得到我們的話，就繼續吧。

Yeah, good afternoon. Just following on mining, I mean, one of your competitors had to -- I mean, one of the other producers of iron ore in the region had to shut down operations because of wildfire. Is that something that you rule out on your side, given that this wildfire is still raging at the moment?

是的，下午好。就採礦業而言，我的意思是，您的競爭對手之一不得不 - 我的意思是，該地區的其他鐵礦石生產商之一不得不因為野火而關閉業務。鑑於目前這場野火仍在肆虐，您是否排除了這種可能性？

And in Liberia, you had some difficulties with the railway, or did now solve the -- we're hearing some people wanting to access this line, and yeah, which could perhaps reduce your own shipments. So, can you comment on that too?

在賴比瑞亞，你們在鐵路方面遇到了一些困難，或者現在已經解決了——我們聽說有些人想要使用這條線路，是的，這可能會減少你們自己的貨運量。那麼，您也可以對此發表評論嗎？

Yeah, so first, on Canada, the fires, you're absolutely right. So, we also suffered the impacts of the fire for a couple of weeks. And if you look at the production now, what we published, you can see that there is a lower production part of it because of maintenance, but also because of the impacts of the fire.

是的，首先，關於加拿大的火災，你是完全正確的。因此，我們也遭受了幾週火災的影響。如果你看看我們現在發布的產量，你會發現其中一部分產量較低，因為維護，但也因為火災的影響。

Slightly resolved now. That's why we feel that absent the repeat of the maintenance work, we will see, nevertheless, an improvement in production and shipments in Mines Canada in quarter three. In Liberia, we have basically resolved now the issues with the rail.

現在稍微解決了。這就是為什麼我們認為，如果不重複維護工作，我們將看到加拿大礦業公司第三季的生產和出貨量有所改善。在利比里亞，我們目前已經基本解決了鐵路問題。

Q2 was still impacted, and that's why then it was also saying that we expect higher numbers in the second half. We will see the capacity in Liberia coming back to normal levels in quarter three. And look, we have an agreement with the government that is signed that is valid. So, we have, of course, dialogue with the government, with different parties, but we are the operators of the rail. We have the concession, and as we have been discussing, we have very ambitious plans for Liberia. We see the potential of the mine. We have plans to take it to 30 million tons, and that's what we intend to do.

第二季度仍然受到影響，這就是為什麼它還說我們預計下半年的數字會更高。我們將看到利比里亞的產能在第三季恢復到正常水準。看，我們與政府簽署了一項有效的協議。因此，我們當然與政府和不同各方進行對話，但我們是鐵路的營運商。我們有讓步，正如我們一直在討論的那樣，我們對利比里亞有非常雄心勃勃的計劃。我們看到了該礦的潛力。我們計劃將其提高到3000萬噸，這就是我們打算做的。

Okay. That's clear. And just the last one. It's on Argentina. This is a country that has been dragging down the Brazil segment over the last two or three quarters, but now it seems that it's turning the corner, that the economic climate is a lot more constructive. So, do you think it will now be quite neutral, and could it even become a big earning driver for ArcelorMittal, given that you are by far the largest producer in the country?

好的。很清楚。而且只是最後一張。這是在阿根廷。這個國家在過去兩三個季度一直拖累巴西市場，但現在似乎正在扭轉局面，經濟環境變得更有建設性。那麼，您認為它現在會相當中性嗎？

Well, it's not yet the case in quarter two, and you're right. So, in quarter two, it was very challenging for us here for Argentina, right? Of course, Argentina is going through a major transformation, call it. The new government taking very hard measures to try to fix the economy, to reduce the inflation -- but as a result, a number of projects were cut.

好吧，第二季的情況還不是這樣，你是對的。所以，在第二節，我們對阿根廷隊來說非常具有挑戰性，對吧？當然，阿根廷正在經歷一場重大轉變。新政府採取了非常嚴厲的措施試圖修復經濟、降低通貨膨脹——但結果是，許多項目被削減。

So, the demand in Argentina in the first half was extremely weak, but to the extent that the government can succeed in bringing stability, reducing the level of inflation, then that should be temporary, and we should start to see again Argentina contributing more to our results. So, I think we are optimistic, but we have, of course, to wait and see early days. But this year so far, we are going through these challenges.

因此，上半年阿根廷的需求極其疲軟，但如果政府能夠成功地實現穩定，降低通膨水平，那麼這應該是暫時的，我們應該會再次開始看到阿根廷為經濟做出更多貢獻。因此，我認為我們很樂觀，但當然，我們還需要觀望早期。但今年到目前為止，我們正在經歷這些挑戰。

Okay, that's clear. Thank you.

好的，很清楚了。謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Max. So, we will move to our next question, which we will take from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian, please go ahead.

偉大的。謝謝，馬克斯。因此，我們將轉向下一個問題，該問題將由德意志銀行的巴斯蒂安提出。嗨，巴斯蒂安，請繼續。

Yeah. Hi, Daniel. Hey, good afternoon all, and thanks for taking my question. If you only have a quick one left on decarbonisation, I think you've been moving a bit more mindful here, which clearly has been putting the right approach so far, just given the very slow momentum in terms of the European infrastructure for things like hydrogen, and I guess also the other components on the policy side, which you mentioned earlier.

是的。嗨，丹尼爾。嘿，大家下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。如果你在脫碳問題上只剩下一個快速的步驟，我認為你在這裡已經更加小心了，到目前為止，顯然已經採取了正確的方法，只是考慮到歐洲基礎設施方面的勢頭非常緩慢，例如氫，我想還有您之前提到的政策方面的其他組成部分。

I guess yet we're getting to the point where the project pace will have to speed up, and I think most of your peers have seen a significant step up on decarbonisation CapEx already, or will see that next year. And by now, we should have pretty good visibility on what is coming at least in 2025. So, could you please give us maybe some early gauge on what to assume for CapEx on decarbonisation for 2025, i.e., will that be more like a $500 million to $1 billion ballpark number, or will it be possibly above $1 billion? Maybe just anything on that front, that would be great.

我想我們已經到了專案節奏必須加快的地步，我認為大多數同行已經看到脫碳資本支出的顯著進步，或者明年將會看到這一點。到目前為止，我們應該對至少 2025 年將會發生的事情有很好的了解。那麼，您能否給我們一些關於 2025 年脫碳資本支出假設的初步衡量標準，即，這是否更像是 5 億至 10 億美元的大概數字，還是可能超過 10 億美元？也許只是這方面的任何事情，那就太好了。

You want to talk about it Daniel?

你想談談丹尼爾嗎？

So, thanks, Genuino. So, I think, look, the focus of our work on decarb at the moment, as we've been consistently talking about, is engineering, so completing the engineering of the various different projects and studies that we have underway.

所以，謝謝你，傑努伊諾。因此，我認為，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，目前我們在脫碳方面的工作重點是工程，因此完成我們正在進行的各種不同項目和研究的工程。

On top of that, we've been making progress with the various different governments to make sure that they're obviously supporting these projects, and that's not just on the CapEx side, but very importantly to make sure that we have the right input factors to make sure that at the end of the day, these projects can be sustainable and cost competitive.

最重要的是，我們一直在與各個不同的政府取得進展，以確保他們明顯支持這些項目，這不僅僅是在資本支出方面，而且非常重要的是確保我們擁有正確的投入因素確保這些項目最終能夠可持續且具成本競爭力。

So then, looking into 2025, relative to this year, I don't think we will see a material step up in CapEx related to our decarb projects. So, that would be my expectation, rather than the numbers that you were talking about in your question.

因此，展望 2025 年，相對於今年，我認為我們不會看到與我們的脫碳項目相關的資本支出出現實質的進步。所以，這將是我的期望，而不是你在問題中談論的數字。

Okay. Thanks, Dana. And just as a quick follow-up, so this year, so I think you're aiming to spend $300 million to $400 million next year. It's going to be the same level. Is that a gross number, or is that already net of any government basically share of the CapEx wallet, basically, which you're budgeting for?

好的。謝謝，達納。作為快速跟進，今年，我認為您明年的目標是花費 3 億至 4 億美元。這將是相同的水平。這是一個總數字，還是已經扣除了您正在預算的任何政府基本上所佔的資本支出錢包份額？

Yeah. So, most of that is, as I say, it's supporting the engineering studies, et cetera. So, we've not yet been able to offset the benefits of the government's support.

是的。所以，正如我所說，其中大部分是支持工程研究等。所以，我們還無法抵銷政府支持帶來的好處。

Understood. Okay.

明白了。好的。

That will help to reduce the impact as we move forward as certain projects start to accelerate.

隨著某些專案開始加速，這將有助於減少我們前進的影響。

Understood. Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

明白了。好的。完美的。謝謝。

Super. Thanks, Bastian. So, we have a couple of questions left. So, one of them is a follow-up, but we'll take the next question from Alon Olsha, Bloomberg Intelligence. So, please go ahead, Alon, if you can hear us.

極好的。謝謝，巴斯蒂安。所以，我們還有幾個問題。因此，其中一個是後續問題，但我們將回答彭博資訊 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 的 Alon Olsha 提出的下一個問題。所以，阿隆，如果你聽得到我們的話，請繼續。

Yeah. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Most of them have been answered. I just had a clarification question on your strategic project. You have three which are being commissioned this year in the second half, which have the capability of adding $285 million to EBITDA.

是的。你好。感謝您提出我的問題。其中大部分已得到答案。我剛剛對你們的戰略項目有一個澄清問題。其中三台將於今年下半年投入使用，能夠為 EBITDA 增加 2.85 億美元。

Could you just remind us what the profile of that looks like, when that will start coming through? I think you've already alluded to Serra Azul mainly coming through in 2025, but the other two, that would be helpful.

您能提醒我們一下它的簡介是什麼樣的嗎？我想你已經提到 Serra Azul 主要在 2025 年完成，但其他兩個也會有幫助。

Yeah. So, hopefully, I get the gist of your question here, Alon, but I think we do have a very useful slide in our presentation deck to show the cadence of the EBITDA that we anticipate on an annual basis from the organic investment.

是的。因此，阿隆，希望我能在這裡理解您問題的要點，但我認為我們的簡報中確實有一張非常有用的幻燈片，可以展示我們每年預計從有機投資中獲得的 EBITDA 的節奏。

So, if you do get a chance to look at slide nine within the presentation deck, it's pretty neatly laid out, but just for everybody's benefit, we would expect some positive impact in the second half from the two projects that we've commissioned and began commissioning over the end of Q2.

因此，如果您確實有機會查看演示文稿中的第九張幻燈片，它的佈局非常整齊，但為了每個人的利益，我們預計我們委託的兩個項目在下半年會產生一些積極影響，第二季度末開始調試。

So, the Vega project in Brazil and the India renewables commissioning, but that will significantly accelerate in 2025. So, for the full year of 2025, we're expecting a $500 million benefit from the incremental benefit from the strategic projects. And then, of course, on top of that, we should be seeing the EBITDA benefit from Vallourec, from Italpannelli. So, year on year, next year's Delta is $0.7 billion. Then into 2026, there would be another $0.5 billion step up as more of the projects step down. And then the remaining amount would be post 2026.

因此，巴西的 Vega 專案和印度的再生能源調試將在 2025 年顯著加速。因此，到 2025 年全年，我們預計戰略項目的增量收益將達到 5 億美元。當然，最重要的是，我們應該看到 EBITDA 從 Vallourec 和 Italpannelli 中受益。因此，與去年同期相比，明年的達美航空營收為 7 億美元。然後到 2026 年，隨著更多項目的退出，將再增加 5 億美元。然後剩餘的金額將在 2026 年之後。

So, in total, it's a $2 billion uplift, including the $0.3 billion we already have been benefiting from in Mexico. But this is going to be a very sort of significant, but also unique driver of ArcelorMittal profitability relative to our peers as we go through the next two or three years and would, of course, come on top of any cyclical recovery that we can anticipate.

因此，總共增加了 20 億美元，其中包括我們在墨西哥已經受益的 3 億美元。但這將是安賽樂米塔爾相對於同行獲利能力的一個非常重要且獨特的驅動因素，在我們未來兩三年內，當然，這將超越我們可以預期的任何週期性復甦。

Great. Thanks for that. If I can, just one additional question on net debt and how that evolves over 3Q and 4Q. It looks like you've got the Vallourec payment in 3Q. So, net debt climbs plus CapEx is somewhat thick and half-weighted, but then with capital release in Q4, which will bring net debt back down. Are there any other kind of major moving parts? And is that profile broadly correct?

偉大的。謝謝你。如果可以的話，我想再問一個關於淨債務以及第三季和第四季淨債務如何演變的問題。您似乎已在第三季收到瓦盧瑞克付款。因此，淨債務攀升，加上資本支出有些厚重和半加權，但隨著第四季的資本釋放，這將使淨債務回落。還有其他類型的主要運動部件嗎？這個檔案大體上正確嗎？

Well, I think you've got it right. Yeah, those are the moving parts. I would just say that we do expect the company to be true cash flow positive, right? And on top of possible, we'll have the reversal of the working capital investments, you're right. So, in Q3, we'll see an increase because of Vallourec, but then we would expect net debt to come down again by the end of the year. And we should, of course, we will retain a very strong balance sheet low absolute levels of net debt.

嗯，我認為你說得對。是的，這些是活動部件。我只想說，我們確實希望該公司能夠實現真正的正現金流，對吧？最重要的是，我們將逆轉營運資本投資，你是對的。因此，在第三季度，由於瓦盧瑞克，我們將看到債務增加，但我們預計到年底淨債務將再次下降。當然，我們應該保持非常強勁的資產負債表，並維持較低的淨債務絕對水準。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thanks. So, we will now move to our last question, actually. So, it's a follow-up from Tristan at BNP Expanse. So, go ahead, Tristan, if you can hear us.

謝謝。所以，實際上我們現在要討論最後一個問題。所以，這是 BNP Expanse 的 Tristan 的後續行動。所以，特里斯坦，如果你聽得到我們的話，就繼續吧。

Yes, thank you for the follow-up. Just on XCarb, you mentioned that your European flat footprint has the capability to produce 8% of all grades and dimensions. So, what is that percentage relative to your current product mix?

是的，謝謝您的關注。就在 XCarb 上，您提到您在歐洲的平坦足跡有能力生產所有等級和尺寸的 8%。那麼，相對於您目前的產品組合，這個百分比是多少？

So, in other words, with XCarb, which is scrap base, how much of that mix can you replicate? And if it is a good chunk of your portfolio already, which it could be, does that mean that you don't necessarily need the five, six DRI plans you have announced to build across Europe?

那麼，換句話說，對於 XCarb（即廢料基礎），您可以複製多少這種混合物？如果它已經是您投資組合的很大一部分（也可能是），這是否意味著您不一定需要您已宣佈在整個歐洲建立的五、六個 DRI 計劃？

So, as you know, we have -- in Europe, I think, when we talk about Carb, there is a lot. But we are the only one that has today an electric arc furnace already producing flat fields, right? That's our system plant, which we are then ramping up. So, and on top of that, of course, we have our facilities in the steel. We have about 50% of our long capacity or 60% is also electric arc based.

所以，正如你所知，我認為，在歐洲，當我們談論碳水化合物時，有很多內容。但我們是當今唯一擁有電弧爐並能生產平坦田地的國家，對嗎？這就是我們的系統工廠，我們正在對其進行擴建。當然，最重要的是，我們還有鋼鐵設施。我們大約 50% 的長產能或 60% 也是基於電弧的。

And we continue to dedicate a lot of resources into R&D. I mean, today, we announced a new line of products under the XCarb umbrella for the development of the hydrogen network in Europe. So, we continue to make good progress there. But in terms of absolute volumes, as we know, we are doubling the volumes this year. We are expecting to complete this year with more than [400kt]. But of course, we have to decarbonize the footprint, right? So, you should not read that. Because of that, we don't need to progress without decarbonization plans.

我們持續將大量資源投入研發。我的意思是，今天，我們在 XCarb 旗下宣布了一系列新產品，用於歐洲氫網絡的發展。因此，我們繼續在那裡取得良好進展。但就絕對數量而言，正如我們所知，我們今年的數量翻了一番。我們預計今年將完成超過[400節]。但當然，我們必須使足跡脫碳，對吧？所以，你不應該讀那個。正因為如此，如果沒有脫碳計劃，我們就不需要取得進展。

All right. That's helpful. But of your current flat roll product mix, is that 50% you could replicate with XCarb and scrap based process? Or is it closer to 80%?

好的。這很有幫助。但是，在您目前的平捲產品組合中，您可以使用 XCarb 和基於廢料的製程複製 50% 的產品嗎？還是接近80%？

It's 80%. -- we are saying 80% for industry customers, right? So, industry customers.

是80%。 -- 我們是說 80% 是針對產業客戶，對吧？所以，行業客戶。

All right. Thank you. And maybe just a quick follow-up. Could you remind us the volume exposure you have of volumes coming from Europe to the US in case we see tariffs returning on US borders? I do believe you had some special rail and other types of products, but I don't remember the volume figure.

好的。謝謝。也許只是快速跟進。您能否提醒我們，如果我們看到美國邊境重新徵收關稅，您對從歐洲運往美國的貨物量有多少敞口？我相信你們有一些特殊的鐵路和其他類型的產品，但我不記得數量了。

It's not a big number, Tristan. It's not a big number. But you're right. We do have exports, some specialty fields. But in any case, even when Europe was still paying a section to the issue, we never stopped them. So, these are products that are not available there in the US. So, I would not expect any implications. And second, the volume is not so significant.

這不是一個大數字，特里斯坦。這不是一個大數字。但你是對的。我們確實有出口，有一些專業領域。但無論如何，即使歐洲仍在為這個問題支付一部分費用，我們也從未阻止他們。因此，這些產品在美國不可用。所以，我不希望有任何影響。其次，數量不那麼大。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Great. Thanks, Tristan. So, that was our last question, Genuino. So, I'll hand it back to you to conclude the call.

偉大的。謝謝，特里斯坦。這是我們的最後一個問題，Genuino。因此，我會將其交還給您以結束通話。

So, thank you, everyone. And before we close, I want to reiterate my message from the beginning of the call. Firstly, the whole ArcelorMittal organization is governance to improve safety performance.

所以，謝謝大家。在我們結束之前，我想重申我在電話會議一開始就傳達的訊息。首先，整個安賽樂米塔爾組織進行治理以提高安全績效。

Secondly, our resilient results in the face of challenging markets continue to demonstrate a structural improvement. This resilience means that we have been able to focus on our growth agenda. Investments we have been making will provide significant structural upside to EBITDA and cash flows on top of any CFO recovery.

其次，面對充滿挑戰的市場，我們的韌性績效持續展現結構性改善。這種韌性意味著我們能夠專注於我們的成長議程。除了財務長的復甦之外，我們一直在進行的投資將為 EBITDA 和現金流帶來顯著的結構性成長。

Our ongoing buybacks are compounded by creating benefits to our shareholders. And if you need anything further, please do reach out to Daniel and his team. I wish you all a good summer. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much

我們持續的回購透過為股東創造利益而變得更加複雜。如果您需要進一步的訊息，請聯繫 Daniel 和他的團隊。祝大家有個愉快的夏天。確保安全並確保您周圍的人的安全。非常感謝