ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress during the third-quarter of 2025. Leading today's call will be our CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino.

你好。大家下午好。我是安賽樂米塔爾投資者關係團隊的丹尼爾·費爾克勞夫。感謝您參加本次電話會議，共同探討安賽樂米塔爾在 2025 年第三季的業績與進展。今天的電話會議將由我們的財務長 Genuino Christino 先生主持。

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation, which was published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 20 of that presentation.

在開始之前，我想先提幾點注意事項。像往常一樣，我們不會詳細介紹今天早上在我們網站上發布的成績報告。不過，我想提請您注意該簡報第 20 頁上的免責聲明。

As usual, Genuino will make some opening remarks before we move directly to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

像往常一樣，Genuino 會作一些開場白，然後我們會直接進入問答環節。（操作說明）

Over to you, Genuino.

接下來就交給你了，Genuino。

Thanks, Daniel, and welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief, beginning with safety, a core value for our company.

謝謝丹尼爾，歡迎各位，謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。照例，我的發言會比較簡短，首先要談的是安全，這是我們公司的核心價值。

The company is completing the first year of its three-year transformation program, supporting ArcelorMittal's journey to be a zero fatality and serious injury company. The first year has focused on building the foundations for improvement across the business, and I'm encouraged by the progress we are making. We are already observing an improvement in the frequency of serious injuries and fatalities compared to last year. But there is more to be done, and there is clear determination across the entire company to implement the bespoke safety road maps that have been developed to drive lasting change.

該公司正在完成為期三年的轉型計畫的第一年，以支持安賽樂米塔爾成為零死亡和零重傷公司的願景。第一年我們主要致力於為公司各方面的改進奠定基礎，我對我們所取得的進展感到鼓舞。與去年相比，我們已經觀察到嚴重傷亡事故的發生頻率下降。但還有更多工作要做，整個公司都明確決心要落實為推動持久變革而製定的客製化安全路線圖。

Now I want to focus this quarter on three key points. First and foremost, our results continue to demonstrate structural improvements. Third quarter EBITDA per tonne was $111. This is 25% above our historical average margin. To be achieving such improved margins at what we believe to be the bottom of the cycle demonstrates the positive impact that our asset optimization and growth strategy is having.

本季我想重點關注以下三個方面。首先，我們的結果持續顯示結構性改進。第三季每噸 EBITDA 為 111 美元。這比我們歷史平均利潤率高出25%。在我們認為的周期底部，能夠實現如此高的利潤率，證​​明了我們的資產優化和成長策略正在產生積極的影響。

Our strategic projects, together with the impacts of recently completed M&A will support structurally higher margins and returns on capital employed through the cycle. We remain on track to capture $0.7 billion structural EBITDA improvement this year, and the expected medium-term impact of $2.1 billion remains unchanged.

我們的策略項目，加上近期完成的併購活動的影響，將在整個週期中支撐更高的利潤率和資本回報率。我們仍有望在今年實現 0.7 億美元的結構性 EBITDA 改善，預計中期影響為 2.1 億美元，這一目標保持不變。

My second point is on free cash flow. Our underlying business continues to generate healthy cash flows. Excluding working capital, nine months free cash flow was approximately $0.5 billion positive. Remember, this is after having invested close to $1 billion in our strategic growth projects. As we head into year-end, I expect that working capital investment will unwind as it normally does. This supports a positive outlook for free cash flow and lower net debt.

我的第二點是關於自由現金流。我們的核心業務持續產生健康的現金流。不計營運資金，前九個月的自由現金流約為 5 億美元。請記住，這還是在我們已在戰略成長項目上投資近 10 億美元之後。隨著年底臨近，我預計營運資金投資將像往常一樣逐步減少。這有利於提高自由現金流並降低淨債務。

And then my final point is on the positive outlook for our business. Relative to where we were three months ago, the outlook for our business has clearly improved. We welcome the new trade tool proposed by the European Commission. They will support a more sustainable European steel sector, returning the industry to healthier capacity utilization levels. The proposal must now be transposed into legislation as fast as possible.

最後，我想談談我們業務的積極前景。與三個月前相比，我們公司的業務前景顯然已經改善。我們歡迎歐盟委員會提出的新貿易工具。他們將支持歐洲鋼鐵業走向更永續的發展，使該產業恢復到更健康的產能利用率水準。該提案必須盡快轉化為法律條文。

And together with an effective CBAM, this can provide a solid foundation for our European business to earn its cost of capital as we have been achieving in other regions. With our advanced product offering and strong market franchises, we are well equipped to seize new structural opportunities and translate them into profitable growth.

再加上有效的 CBAM，這將為我們在歐洲的業務提供堅實的基礎，使其能夠像在其他地區一樣賺取資本成本。憑藉我們先進的產品和強大的市場地位，我們完全有能力抓住新的結構性機遇，並將其轉化為獲利成長。

As a company, ArcelorMittal is actively enabling the energy transition. We are supplying the steel required for new energy and mobility systems and the steel required for infrastructure development. We are investing in high-quality, high-margin electrical steels and building a competitive renewable energy portfolio.

作為一家公司，安賽樂米塔爾正在積極推動能源轉型。我們供應新能源和交通系統所需的鋼材以及基礎設施建設所需的鋼材。我們正在投資高品質、高利潤的電工鋼，並建立具有競爭力的再生能源組合。

Putting this all together, ArcelorMittal is in a strong position, both operationally and financially. We have a unique diversified asset base across geographies and end markets. We are delivering structurally higher margins, supported by an optimized asset portfolio and execution of our strategic growth projects. We have momentum and our growth will continue.

綜上所述，安賽樂米塔爾無論在營運或財務方面都處於強勢地位。我們在地域和終端市場擁有獨特的多元化資產基礎。我們透過優化資產組合和執行策略性成長項目，實現了結構性更高的利潤率。我們發展勢頭良好，並將繼續增長。

We will continue to implement our clearly defined capital return policies. It is working well, allowing us over the past five years to grow our dividend at a compound rate of 16% as well as repurchase 38% of our equity. ArcelorMittal share now represents a greater proportion of our capacity, a bigger share of our leading franchise businesses, a larger stake in our growth projects and a greater ownership of our unique business in India.

我們將繼續執行我們明確制定的資本回報政策。這項策略效果顯著，在過去五年中，我們實現了股利16%的複合成長率，並回購了38%的股權。安賽樂米塔爾的股份現在代表我們更大的產能比例、更大的領先特許經營業務份額、更大的增長項目股份以及對我們在印度獨特業務的更大所有權。

With that, Daniel, let's move to Q&A.

那麼，丹尼爾，我們進入問答環節吧。

Great. Thank you, Genuino. We have a good queue of questions in front of us. (Operator Instructions) But we will take the first question, please, from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

偉大的。謝謝你，Genuino。我們面前還有一大堆問題等著我們去問。（操作員說明）但是，我們先來回答摩根士丹利的阿蘭提出的第一個問題。

Genuino, I have two questions. I'll ask them one at a time. So the first one is looking forward to 2026 and before we take into account any impact from CBAM or the new safeguard, what are the unusual or exceptional costs that we need to consider while building our EBITDA bridge into next year? And I'm thinking here more the incurred US tariff costs year-to-date, the stoppages in Mexico, et cetera.

Genuino，我有兩個問題。我會一個一個問他們。因此，第一個問題是展望 2026 年，在我們考慮 CBAM 或新保障措施的任何影響之前，在建立明年 EBITDA 過渡方案時，我們需要考慮哪些不尋常或特殊成本？我這裡比較指的是今年迄今美國產生的關稅成本、墨西哥的停工等等。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. Sure, Alain. Well, thinking about 2023 in terms of exceptionals. So right now, I cannot really point to you when it comes to tariffs that we are seeing change, right? We will see, of course, in 2026, as we know, we have the USMCA. And I'm sure the negotiations between Canada, US, Mexico will continue. But of course, we have to wait and see how -- what comes out of the negotiations, right?

好的。當然可以，阿蘭。嗯，從特殊情況的角度來看2023年。所以現在，就關稅變化而言，我真的無法指出你們的情況，對吧？當然，我們拭目以待，到 2026 年，正如我們所知，我們將迎來美墨加協定 (USMCA)。我相信加拿大、美國和墨西哥之間的談判將會繼續進行。當然，我們還得拭目以待，看看談判最終會取得什麼結果，對吧？

Then clearly, we have the losses in Mexico, and we do expect that they will not reoccur in 2026. And that's really in terms of exceptionals, that's what I see. Of course, when you think about the bridge for 2026, there are many positives that we could potentially talk about, right? One is the contribution from our projects. So we have another about $800 million coming in 2026.

那麼很顯然，我們在墨西哥遭受了損失，但我們預計這種情況不會在 2026 年再次發生。我看到的只是極少數例外。當然，當我們展望 2026 年的橋樑時，有很多積極的方面值得我們探討，對吧？一是我們的專案所做的貢獻。所以到 2026 年我們還會獲得大約 8 億美元的收入。

We just saw also the first forecast of the World Steel Association in terms of demand for next year. I think we will start to see some of the benefits of the lower interest rates impacting the economies. We are seeing PMIs in Europe recovering. As we know, demand has been just moving sideways in most of our core regions. And I think there is hope that we might see a better picture next year also in terms of demand.

我們剛剛也看到了世界鋼鐵協會對明年需求的首次預測。我認為我們將開始看到低利率對經濟產生的一些好處。我們看到歐洲的採購經理人指數正在回升。我們知道，在我們大多數核心區域，需求一直處於橫盤整理狀態。我認為，明年需求方面也有望出現更好的情況。

I don't know, Daniel, if I'm missing something, if you want to complement?

丹尼爾，我不知道我是否遺漏了什麼，你有什麼補充嗎？

So all I was going to do is perhaps just adding the numbers for Mexico. So if you recall back to the Q2 conference call, at Q2 results, we talked about a $40 million impact from costs and operational costs in Q2. In our release today, you will see a number for Mexico of $90 million. And then in Q4, things should improve, but there will still be a cost in Q4 of maybe $60 million, $65 million.

所以我原本打算做的可能只是把墨西哥的數據加上去。所以，如果你還記得第二季財報電話會議，我們在第二季業績報告中談到了第二季成本和營運成本帶來的 4,000 萬美元的影響。在今天發布的新聞稿中，您會看到墨西哥的預算數字為 9000 萬美元。然後到了第四季度，情況應該會有所改善，但第四季度仍然會有大約 6000 萬美元到 6500 萬美元的成本。

So as Genuino said, that shouldn't recur in 2026. So then when you think about the bridge from 2025 to 2026, that is close to about $200 million there from nonrecurrence of Mexico.

正如 Genuino 所說，這種情況在 2026 年應該不會再次發生。所以，當你考慮 2025 年至 2026 年這段過渡時期時，由於墨西哥的不可再生資源，損失將接近 2 億美元。

That's very clear. And the second question is in Europe, you currently ship around 30 million tonnes of finished steel. If the safeguards work next year as intended or designed and imports dramatically reduce, how much can you flex your production in the near and medium term after taking into account the restart costs, the purchase of CO2 allowances, et cetera? So in other words, what is your achievable Blue Sky shipments in Europe if we go into that scenario where imports decline dramatically?

這一點很清楚。第二個問題是，在歐洲，你們目前出口約 3,000 萬噸成品鋼材。如果明年保障措施按預期或設計發揮作用，進口大幅減少，考慮到重啟成本、購買二氧化碳配額等因素，您在近期和中期內可以靈活調整生產多少？換句話說，如果進口大幅下降，您在歐洲可實現的藍天運輸量是多少？

Well, the way we see it, I mean, we do expect to be able to supply the market. I mean, as we all know, the expectation looking at the numbers, I mean there is an expectation that imports will come down by about 40% and flat as we saw, right? And it's not a secret that our market, it's about 30%. So we don't see any problems to make sure that we can capture that part of our market share. And you know, I mean, you have that also in our back book.

嗯，就我們而言，我的意思是，我們確實期望能夠滿足市場需求。我的意思是，正如我們所知，從數據來看，預計進口量將下降約 40%，並保持平穩，正如我們所看到的，對吧？我們的市佔率約為 30%，這已不是什麼秘密。因此，我們認為在確保能夠獲得那部分市場份額方面不會有任何問題。你知道，我的意思是，我們以前的資料裡也有這個。

So our capacity in Europe is way in excess of 31 -- 30 million that we are currently producing. So we feel very comfortable here to be in a position to supply the market when these new measures are in place.

因此，我們在歐洲的產能遠遠超過我們目前生產的 3,000 萬至 3,100 萬。因此，我們非常有信心在這些新措施到位後，能夠為市場提供產品。

Great. So we will move now to the next question, which we're going to take from Tom at Barclays.

偉大的。接下來，我們將進入下一個問題，這個問題來自巴克萊銀行的湯姆。

Two for me as well. The first one, just the usual one on the kind of moving parts, maybe, please, into Q4 by division? And any color around realized pricing, volumes, that kind of stuff.

我也是兩個。第一個，就是那種常見的活動部件，或許可以依部門分攤到第四季？以及任何與實際價格、銷售量之類的因素相關的色彩資訊。

Do you want to take it, Daniel?

丹尼爾，你想拿嗎？

Yes, sure, Genuino. So when we look at the bridge from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, I think it's pretty simple. I think there are really three key building blocks for you to be thinking about. The first, of course, is the normal seasonal improvement in European volumes.

是的，當然，Genuino。所以，當我們審視從第三季到第四季的過渡階段時，我認為它非常簡單。我認為你需要考慮的真正關鍵的三個組成部分。當然，首先是歐洲銷售正常的季節性成長。

The second factor or the second building block would be higher iron ore shipments. So as Genuino was talking about, we have good momentum in our strategic projects. So we're well on track to achieve the targeted 10 million tonnes of shipments in Liberia. And so that will be a nice increment in the fourth quarter.

第二個因素或第二個組成部分是較高的鐵礦石出貨量。正如 Genuino 所說，我們的策略專案進展順利。因此，我們有望實現向利比里亞出口 1000 萬噸的目標。因此，第四季將會出現一個不錯的成長。

And then the third building block would be North America. So we would expect normal seasonality in volumes. So we do have two holidays in the fourth quarter. So normally, volumes are seasonally weaker in the NAFTA segment. If you look at pricing and if you just purely on a sort of a two-month lagged basis, pricing should be lower in the fourth quarter than the third quarter, but that's going to be slightly offset by the improvement in our Mexican operations, which we just talked about in Alain's question.

第三個組成部分就是北美。因此，我們預期銷售量會出現正常的季節性波動。所以第四季我們有兩個假期。因此，通常情況下，北美自由貿易區的交易量會因季節性因素而放緩。如果從定價的角度來看，並且僅以滯後兩個月的基準來看，第四季度的價格應該低於第三季度，但這將被我們在墨西哥業務的改善稍微抵消，我們剛才在 Alain 的問題中談到了這一點。

So those would be the three key building blocks: seasonally higher volumes in Europe, higher shipments in mining from the Liberia expansion and seasonally lower volumes and lower lag prices in the North America segment.

因此，這就是三個關鍵組成部分：歐洲季節性較高的銷售量、利比里亞擴張帶來的礦業出貨量增加，以及北美地區季節性較低的銷售量和較低的延遲價格。

Great. And then maybe just following up on North America. I mean, is there anything else that you guys would call out for the print in Q3, which I guess was very strong despite the sort of additional Mexico outages. I know you've added Calvert, but I guess, on the consolidation numbers you've given before, that was maybe sort of $60 million a quarter of incremental EBITDA contribution. So maybe that offsets the hit from Mexico, but US

偉大的。然後或許可以繼續關注北美市場。我的意思是，你們還有什麼要特別指出的第三季業績嗎？儘管墨西哥又出現了一些停電情況，但我覺得第三季的業績依然非常強勁。我知道你們收購了 Calvert，但根據你們之前給出的合併數據，這大概每季能帶來 6000 萬美元的增量 EBITDA 貢獻。所以這或許能抵銷墨西哥帶來的衝擊，但美國

spot pricing has been drifting. There's obviously extra tariff costs. Was there anything on either the cost side, the mix side that you flagged for North America?

現貨價格一直在波動。顯然還有額外的關稅成本。在成本方面或產品組合方面，您是否指出了北美地區的一些問題？

Yes, Tom. So first of all, we had a record level of shipments at Calvert. Calvert doing extremely well. So I would suggest that the contribution was a bit higher than what you referred to.

是的，湯姆。首先，我們在卡爾弗特的出貨量創下了歷史新高。卡爾弗特表現非常出色。所以我認為實際貢獻金額比你提到的要高一些。

Our Canadian team is also doing a very good job in managing what they can. Costs, there is a very high focus on making sure that we take cost out. So that is also supporting the results in quarter three. So you have the strong operations in Calvert, you have strong operations in Canada in both of the facilities in the (inaudible) facility as well. So we have also a good contribution from some of the other business, our HBI DRI plant in Texas also performing well.

我們的加拿大團隊在管理他們所能做的事情方面也做得非常出色。成本方面，我們非常重視降低成本。所以這也印證了第三季的業績。所以你們在卡爾弗特有強大的營運能力，在加拿大的兩個工廠（聽不清楚）也有強大的運作能力。因此，我們的其他一些業務也做出了不錯的貢獻，我們在德州的 HBI DRI 工廠也表現良好。

So I think we have -- except for, of course, the problems in Mexico, we have our franchise business in North America operating quite, quite well.

所以我認為——當然，除了墨西哥的問題之外——我們在北美的特許經營業務運作得相當不錯。

So we will move now to the next question, which we're going to take from Cole at Jefferies.

接下來，我們將進入下一個問題，這個問題來自傑富瑞集團的科爾。

I'd just like to ask on the CapEx profile medium term and the envelope that you're thinking about because you do have a number of strategic projects in the pipeline. How should we think about broad buckets for CapEx '25, '26, '27? Any broad-based guidance you can provide?

我想問中期資本支出計劃以及您正在考慮的預算範圍，因為您確實有一些策略項目正在籌備中。我們該如何考慮 2025 年、2026 年、2027 年的資本支出大類？您能提供一些整體性的指導意見嗎？

And then following up on working capital, it's a strong improvement into the fourth quarter coming back, but I imagine as you look into 2026, hopefully, we will benefit from a stronger pricing environment. And I'm just wondering how you're thinking about working capital into 2026. Are you hoping for kind of working capital outflows and stronger pricing and demand environment for 2026?

接下來是營運資金方面，第四季出現了強勁的改善，但我認為展望 2026 年，我們有望受益於更強勁的定價環境。我想知道您是如何考慮 2026 年的營運資金問題的。您是否希望 2026 年出現某種形式的營運資金外流以及更強勁的價格和需求環境？

So in terms of CapEx, what we have been saying is -- and then, of course, we are now -- we're going to be actually just -- we're going to be starting our budget discussions for 2026 and beyond. But what we have been saying is that the range that you have -- that we have been using over the last couple of years between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, including strategic sustaining maintenance, that is a good reference for now. So I would encourage you to keep that as your reference. And then I'm sure in Q4, we will be updating you with more details, but it's a good reference.

所以就資本支出而言，我們一直說的是——當然，現在——我們實際上將——我們將開始討論 2026 年及以後的預算。但我們一直強調的是，過去幾年我們一直使用的預算範圍在 45 億美元到 50 億美元之間，其中包括策略性維持性維護，目前是一個很好的參考。所以我建議您將其作為參考。我相信在第四季度，我們會提供更多細節，但這是一個很好的參考。

In terms of working capital, I hope you're right. I mean I hope that in 2026, we have to deploy working capital because then it means that the business is strong. It's performing well. Prices are moving in the right direction, volumes as well. What we try to encourage is you should think about working capital moving in line with our EBITDA, right?

就營運資金而言，我希望你是對的。我的意思是，我希望到 2026 年，我們需要投入營運資金，因為那意味著公司業務發展強勁。它的表現很好。價格和銷售量都在朝著正確的方向發展。我們希望您考慮的是，營運資本的變動應該與我們的 EBITDA 保持一致，對嗎？

So if you believe that if you have for 2026 high EBITDA numbers, then it would be fair to expect that there will be potential investments in working capital, which is something that we would see as positive.

因此，如果您認為 2026 年的 EBITDA 數據會很高，那麼可以合理預期，營運資本方面可能會有潛在的投資，我們認為這是一件好事。

And then maybe just as a follow-up, have you seen any changes in order books? Or how are you managing your order book for the start of 2026? Are you keeping some availability for higher prices? Or how are you seeing your order book develop into 2026?

那麼，作為後續問題，您是否注意到訂單量有任何變化？或者，您如何管理 2026 年初的訂單？你們會保留一些庫存以備高價出售嗎？或者，您如何看待您的訂單量到 2026 年的發展？

Well, as we talked about, the demand has been moving sideways, right? So we -- and our order book remains relatively stable, right? So we have segments doing better than others. The order books are relatively stable across the group. We are not doing anything special to try to anticipate a stronger 2026 other than making sure that we allow the business to keep the working capital that they need so that they can benefit from a stronger 2026 that we hope will materialize.

正如我們之前討論的，需求一直處於橫盤整理狀態，對吧？所以，我們的訂單量也保持相對穩定，對吧？所以我們有一些細分市場表現得比其他市場更好。集團各部門的訂單量相對穩定。我們並沒有採取任何特殊措施來預測 2026 年的強勁成長，只是確保企業能夠保留所需的營運資金，以便他們能夠從我們希望實現的 2026 年強勁成長中受益。

So that's really how we are planning. And yes, that's how we are seeing it so far.

這就是我們目前的計劃。是的，目前我們也是這麼認為的。

Great. So we're going to move to the next question, which we'll take from Reinhardt at Bank of America.

偉大的。接下來我們要問的是來自美國銀行的萊因哈特所提出的問題。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can. Go ahead.

是的，我們可以。前進。

I just want to ask on capital allocation. So if the safeguard replacements in Europe come through in their proposed form, how would you think about Europe from a capital allocation point of view? And I don't want to necessarily draw into discussion about sort of decarbonization investment in CBAM. But just from a purely economic perspective, you talk about organic growth. Do you think Europe could be a home for capital in the future if we get this framework?

我只是想問一下關於資本配置的問題。如果歐洲的保障措施替代方案以提議的形式實施，從資本配置的角度來看，您會如何看待歐洲？我並不想深入討論CBAM的脫碳投資問題。但僅從純粹的經濟角度來看，我們談論的是有機成長。如果能建立起這樣的框架，你認為歐洲未來有可能成為資本的聚集地嗎？

I think you touched on it. I mean this is an important framework, right? And then what we are talking about is that this framework should allow the industry to be sustainable, to earn its cost of capital. And when you achieve that, then you are in a position to consider then investments. And that's exactly where we are.

我覺得你已經提到了這一點。我的意思是，這是一個重要的框架，對吧？然後，我們所討論的是，這個框架應該能夠使該行業可持續發展，並收回其資本成本。當你達到那個目標時，你就可以考慮投資了。而這正是我們現在所處的境地。

And so we are encouraged by these new measures.

因此，我們對這些新措施感到鼓舞。

Of course, still waiting for the implementation. We still need to hear more about CBAM as we all know. And then the last piece of the equation is, of course, energy, energy cost. So I think once we have that framework very clear, then we're going to be in a position to move forward. And as we discussed before, this will happen gradually, right?

當然，目前還在等待具體實施。我們都知道，我們仍然需要更多地了解CBAM。等式的最後一部分當然是能源，能源成本。所以我認為，一旦我們把這個框架非常清楚地勾勒出來，我們就能向前邁進。正如我們之前討論過的，這將逐步發生，對吧？

So you should not expect ArcelorMittal launch a number of simultaneous projects. It will happen gradually. This is going to be a multiyear journey.

所以你不應該指望安賽樂米塔爾同時啟動多個項目。這將逐步發生。這將是一段長達數年的旅程。

Understood. That's very helpful. And could you just remind me, I mean, you mentioned the business in Europe could potentially return to its cost of capital. Could you just remind us what exactly is the installed capital base of the European business?

明白了。那很有幫助。您能否提醒我一下，您之前提到過，歐洲的業務有可能恢復到資本成本水準。您能否提醒我們一下，歐洲企業的現有資本基礎究竟是多少？

Well, I don't think this is something that we are very specifically disclosing, Daniel?

嗯，丹尼爾，我覺得這件事我們不會特別具體地透露。

No, you're right, Genuino. It's not something that's broken out in our financials.

不，你說得對，Genuino。這部分內容沒有在我們的財務報表中單獨列出。

Okay. No, that's fine. Maybe just one last quick one, Genuino. You mentioned that you've got the capacity to be able to deliver effectively your share of the 10 million tonnes. Can I just see what kind of costs you might need to incur in order to bring that capacity to market?

好的。不，沒關係。或許就最後再來一次吧，Genuino。你提到你有能力有效地交付你應承擔的1000萬噸份額。我能否了解一下，為了將該產能推向市場，您可能需要承擔哪些成本？

I mean I appreciate it's there, but could you just maybe talk through some of the costs that you need to incur to actually get that utilization up?

我的意思是，我很感激它的存在，但是您能否詳細談談為了真正提高利用率而需要承擔的一些成本？

Yes. Well, it's a good point. And I would break it down into two components or two parts, right? First is, so you have the fixed cost part. So in a number of facilities, we're going to be able to leverage the fixed cost that we have, right? So you're just going to be running at a higher capacity. So you benefit on the fixed cost side.

是的。嗯，這說得有道理。我會把它分解成兩個部分，對吧？首先，你需要考慮固定成本部分。因此，在許多設施中，我們將能夠利用我們現有的固定成本，對吧？所以你的運作效率會更高。因此，您在固定成本方面是有利的。

But then in such cases, normally, what you're going to see also, it's an increase in your variable costs, including the CO2 cost, right? If you want to improve your productivity, you might need to charge higher quality materials, pellets, more pellets. So that will be -- you should expect that to have an impact as well. So I would just encourage you to think about the two components.

但通常情況下，在這種情況下，你還會看到變動成本增加，包括二氧化碳成本，對吧？如果你想提高生產效率，你可能需要使用更高品質的材料、顆粒，以及更多的顆粒。所以，你應該預料到這也會產生影響。所以我建議你思考這兩個組成部分。

So we'll move now to a question from Timna at Wells Fargo.

接下來，我們將回答來自富國銀行的蒂姆娜提出的問題。

I wanted to ask two things. One, just kind of probing a little bit more your efforts to mitigate the tariff costs and specifically how you're approaching the annual contract negotiations with automakers at Dofasco? And then a separate question, just if I missed it, I apologize. I was just wondering if you commented on why not -- why there weren't any buybacks in the quarter.

我想問兩件事。第一，能否更深入地了解您在降低關稅成本方面所做的努力，特別是您在 Dofasco 是如何處理與汽車製造商的年度合約談判的？還有一個問題，如果我錯過了，我深感抱歉。我只是想知道你有沒有解釋為什麼本季沒有股票回購。

Yes. So we continue to renew our contracts, our OEM contracts. So we just -- we're basically almost done now for part of first half of next year. So signing even more than a one-year contract. So I think fundamentally, our customers, so they like the product.

是的。因此，我們繼續續簽合同，即我們的OEM合約。所以，我們基本上已經完成了明年上半年部分的工作。所以，他簽的合約甚至超過了一年。所以我覺得從根本上來說，我們的客戶喜歡我們的產品。

They like what they get from Dofasco. So I think there is very good cooperation between us and our customers there.

他們很滿意從多法斯科公司得到的服務。所以我認為我們和那裡的客戶之間合作非常愉快。

So we don't expect really here significant change in terms of -- looking at our North America business in terms of volumes going to automotive, of course, other than if we have lower production next year, which we are not talking about, but just because of renegotiations, we are not really expecting significant change in the overall volumes going to automotive.

因此，就我們北美業務而言，就汽車行業的銷量而言，我們預計不會出現重大變化，當然，除非我們明年的產量下降（我們目前沒有討論這種情況），但僅僅是因為重新談判，我們預計汽車行業的整體銷量不會出現重大變化。

And in terms of buybacks, there is not really much more I have to say. And as you know, we have a very clear policy, and we believe that is a differential. I mean not all of our competitors will have a very clear policy. And I think we were in a way, lucky. We did a lot of buybacks at the very beginning of the year when the share price was still low.

至於股票回購，我真的沒什麼好說的了。如您所知，我們有非常明確的政策，我們相信這是一個優勢。我的意思是，並非所有競爭對手都會有非常明確的政策。我覺得從某種意義上來說，我們很幸運。今年年初股價還很低的時候，我們進行了大量股票回購。

And all I would say is that you should expect that the company will -- on that policy, that 50% of the free cash after paying dividends will be distributed to shareholders.

我只想說，你們應該期待公司會按照這項政策，在支付股息後，將 50% 的自由現金分配給股東。

I would just also add that the policy is working quite well. I mean we talked about 38%. So we did 9 million shares this year already. And we have a very low average price. So we are really creating a lot of value to our shareholders.

我還要補充一點，這項政策目前運作良好。我的意思是，我們討論的是38%。今年我們已經發行了900萬股。而且我們的平均價格非常低。因此，我們確實為股東創造了許多價值。

Daniel, if you want to complement?

丹尼爾，你想補充什麼呢？

Yes. Thanks, Genuino. I think that was very complete. So we will move to the next question, which we will take from Tristan at BNP.

是的。謝謝，Genuino。我覺得這已經非常全面了。接下來，我們將討論下一個問題，這個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Tristan。

First one is on working capital. Just wanted to see how confident you are on the almost $2 billion of release that you expect in Q4? And what should be driving that? Is there any impact from outages at (inaudible) or Mexico? And isn't there a risk of reducing inventories a bit too much and missing the recovery in Q1?

第一個是關於營運資金的。我只是想了解您對預計在第四季度實現的近20億美元的營收目標有多大信心？而驅動這一切的因素又是什麼呢？（聽不清楚）或墨西哥的停電會造成什麼影響嗎？庫存削減過多會不會有錯過第一季復甦的風險？

And if you can discuss that as well. Is that not your base case that notably in Europe, you'll see a bit of a pickup in Q1? And also if you can comment on the CBAM uncertainty. And does that have any impact on your order book in Europe and pushing more buyers towards local producer? That's my first question.

如果你也能討論一下這個問題就更好了。這不是你們的基本預期嗎？尤其是在歐洲，你們會在第一季看到一些成長？另外，如果您能就 CBAM 的不確定性發表一些看法就更好了。這是否會對您在歐洲的訂單產生影響，並促使更多買家轉向本地生產商？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. So we -- the working capital release in Q4 to some extent, it's seasonal, right? I mean, as we know, we have just less working days in December. So that will have an impact on how much receivables we carry at the end of the year, right? And then if you look also, we had a reduction in payables.

是的。所以，第四季的營運資金釋放在某種程度上是季節性的，對吧？我的意思是，我們都知道，12 月的工作日比較少。所以這將對我們年底的應收帳款餘額產生影響，對吧？此外，如果您看一下，您會發現我們的應付帳款也有所減少。

So as we prepare actually for potentially a stronger 2026, so we start also increasing, and that should also start to normalize.

因此，隨著我們為可能更強勁的 2026 年做準備，我們也開始增加，而這也應該開始趨於正常化。

And you're right. So there are a couple of one-offs such as the fact that we are not able -- we are not producing as standard in Mexico, some accumulation of raw materials that should also start to normalize, right? We have the reline of our Dunkirk blast furnace, which is also then in the process for now. We are normalizing the inventory of slabs.

你說得對。所以有一些特殊情況，例如我們無法——我們在墨西哥的生產沒有達到標準水平，一些原料積壓也應該開始恢復正常，對吧？我們正在對敦克爾克高爐進行內襯更換，目前這項工作也正在進行中。我們正在規範板材庫存。

So yes, we are very confident that you're going to see a significant release of working capital as was also the case last year. So if you go back to 2024, you're going to see something very, very similar. And you're right. So we have a concern here not to squeeze the working capital that is available to the business. And that's why what you're going to really see is more on the receivables side and payable side, not so much in terms of inventories.

所以，是的，我們非常有信心，您將會看到營運資金的大幅釋放，就像去年一樣。所以，如果你回到 2024 年，你會看到非常非常相似的景象。你說得對。因此，我們這裡需要關注的是不要過度消耗企業可用的營運資金。所以，你真正會看到的更多是應收帳款和應付帳款方面的變化，而不是庫存方面的變化。

Okay. No, that's clear. And just following up then on Europe and with the steel action plan, do you believe that there is a possibility of seeing the new quotas implemented before July next year? And to come back to my earlier question, what kind of environment do you see in Q1? If the quotas are not implemented in January, April, but in July, do you see a risk of import surging?

好的。不，這很清楚。那麼，就歐洲和鋼鐵行動計畫而言，您認為新的配額有可能在明年7月之前實施嗎？回到我之前的問題，您認為 Q1 地區是什麼樣的環境？如果配額制度不在1月或4月實施，而是在7月實施，您認為是否有進口激增的風險？

Yes, and if you could comment a little bit on your order books in Europe, if you're starting to see a bit more activity there, that would be helpful.

是的，如果您能稍微談談您在歐洲的訂單情況，例如您是否開始看到那裡的業務有所成長，那將很有幫助。

Yes. Well, in terms of timing of implementation, so when we discuss internally, I think there is still hope that we might actually see it earlier. And I think that's quite important, and that's really the efforts in terms of making sure that the parliament and the council, they understand the urgency of having these measures implemented as soon as possible.

是的。至於實施時間方面，我們內部討論後認為，我們仍然有希望提前看到它。我認為這非常重要，這才是真正需要努力的地方，目的是確保議會和理事會理解盡快實施這些措施的緊迫性。

So even though it's challenging, I think there is still hope that we may see this implemented earlier. But of course, we have to wait and see. One thing is for sure, though, I mean, of course, we don't even don't yet know for sure all the details of CBAM. But CBAM for sure is effective already from 1st of Jan, right? And then we will see what are the final terms.

所以儘管這很有挑戰性，但我認為我們仍然有希望看到這項措施早日實施。當然，我們還得拭目以待。不過有一件事可以肯定，我的意思是，當然，我們甚至還不完全了解 CBAM 的所有細節。但CBAM肯定是從1月1日起生效的，對吧？然後我們再看看最終條款是什麼。

But that alone should already at least bring the -- make the imports less competitive.

但光是這一點就應該至少能降低進口產品的競爭力。

And then in terms of order book, I think we discussed, I mean, order books are at -- they are not higher than normal. I think it's just as we are seeing demand for now at least kind of moving sideways, demand -- the order book is relatively stable.

至於訂單量，我認為我們已經討論過了，我的意思是，訂單量目前並沒有高於正常水平。我認為，至少目前我們看到的需求處於橫盤整理狀態，訂單量相對穩定。

Great. So we'll move now to take a question from Max at ODDO.

偉大的。接下來，我們將回答來自 ODDO 的 Max 提出的問題。

So my first question is on Mexico. So this is an asset where you have had a number of issues over the recent past. So there was this illegal blockade last year. There was the outage on the EAF earlier this year, and now there's this problem on the DRI plant. So how confident are you basically that the asset can return to a normalized productivity and performance and that on a recurring basis from next year?

我的第一個問題是關於墨西哥的。所以，這是您在近期遇到不少問題的資產。所以去年發生了這起非法封鎖事件。今年早些時候電弧爐發生了故障，現在直接還原鐵廠又出現了問題。那麼，您基本上有多大信心，認為該資產能夠從明年開始持續恢復到正常的生產力和性能水平？

Yes. That's a fair question. And then, of course, we are not pleased. Some of the problems that we are facing this year, they are still a result of the legal blockade that happened last year. And what we are doing right now is really reviewing all of our SOPs.

是的。這是一個很合理的問題。當然，我們對此並不滿意。我們今年面臨的一些問題，仍然是去年法律封鎖造成的後果。我們現在正在做的，就是全面審查我們所有的標準作業程序。

So we have our engineers, we have our CTO group going through all the procedures, making sure that we avoid repetition of some of these issues. So I'm very confident that with the support of the group, CTO and local team also very engaged, we're not going to have a repetition of some of these operational issues in Mexico.

因此，我們的工程師和技術長團隊正在按照所有流程進行操作，以確保避免再次出現這些問題。因此，我非常有信心，在集團、技術長和當地團隊的大力支持下，我們在墨西哥不會再遇到這些營運問題。

Okay. And then a second question is on the import pressure in Brazil and India, which seems to be quite high at the moment, and it's reflected in very low prices. So it seems that the authorities there are not really willing to tackle the situation at this stage. So how are you confident that this will be the case? And would you be ready to scale back your investments in Brazil if that's not the case, given that I think one of your competitor has done such a move and Brazil is still the biggest region where you invest at the moment if we leave aside Liberia.

好的。第二個問題是關於巴西和印度的進口壓力，目前看來這兩個國家的進口壓力相當大，這反映在非常低的價格上。看來地方政府現階段並不真正願意解決這個問題。你如何確信情況會如此？如果情況並非如此，鑑於我認為您的一個競爭對手已經採取了這樣的舉措，而且如果我們不考慮利比里亞，巴西仍然是您目前最大的投資地區，您是否準備縮減在巴西的投資？

Yes. Look, I mean, mid- to long term, we continue to be bullish on Brazil. We will continue to invest. You're right that we have seen imports rising in Brazil. And there is also a very close dialogue with the government showing what the governments are doing around the globe, right?

是的。我的意思是，從中長期來看，我們依然看好巴西。我們將繼續投資。你說得對，我們看到巴西的進口量確實在上升。而且，我們也與各國政府保持著非常密切的對話，展示世界各國政府正在採取的行動，對吧？

And what is encouraging is we have a number of antidumping measures that should start to have an impact, we believe by end of this year or beginning of next year. So we have antidumping against China on (inaudible), which, of course, are products that we are selling domestically. So that should have a positive impact.

令人鼓舞的是，我們有一些反傾銷措施，我們相信這些措施將在今年年底或明年年初開始產生效果。所以，我們對中國提起了反傾銷訴訟，涉及（聽不清楚），而這些產品當然是我們自己在國內銷售的。所以這應該會產生正面影響。

I think the system, the way it is designed today, it also allows for -- if we see surges in other products that we can also then look to add them to the quota systems that we have in place today. We have seen a reduction of imports already in quarter three compared to quarter two. So we'll see, but I think the fact that we have the antidumping is important, showing that the government is also concerned. Local mills, as we know, announced price increase as well beginning of the quarter, we'll see how it plays out.

我認為，就目前的系統設計而言，它還允許——如果我們看到其他產品的需求激增，我們也可以考慮將它們添加到我們目前實施的配額系統中。與第二季相比，第三季的進口量已經下降。所以我們拭目以待，但我認為反傾銷措施的推出很重要，這顯示政府也對此表示關切。據我們所知，本地工廠也在本季初宣布了提價，我們將拭​​目以待。

And India, I would say that demand continues to be extremely good, strong, rising, strong economic performance. You're right that prices are low, that the, I would say, -- there is also the impact of the new capacity that normally takes a while to be absorbed. So we are going through that process right now. But I think we can also be optimistic for the near term.

至於印度，我認為需求依然非常強勁、強勁且不斷成長，經濟表現強勁。你說得對，價格確實很低，而且，我想說的是，——還有新增產能的影響，這通常需要一段時間才能消化。所以我們現在正在經歷這個過程。但我認為我們對短期前景也持樂觀態度。

Okay. And just perhaps the last one is on Ukraine. It seems that the challenges there have gone bigger in recent months in terms of railways, in terms of electricity costs. So is there a point where you will consider shutting down production entirely? Or are you still committed to maintaining production as it is for the time being?

好的。或許最後一個問題與烏克蘭有關。近幾個月來，鐵路和電力成本似乎面臨更大的挑戰。那麼，你們是否會考慮完全停止生產？或者，你們是否仍計劃暫時維持目前的生產規模？

Yes. The situation in Ukraine, you're right. So we are running today at basically at capacity that is available to us. So we are running two furnaces. So the trend is EBITDA positive.

是的。你說得對，烏克蘭的局勢確實如此。所以，我們今天的產能基本上已經達到極限了。所以我們同時運行兩台爐子。所以，EBITDA 的成長趨勢是正面的。

We are not yet free cash flow neutral as we discussed before, right? And the key issue for us remains the high energy costs.

正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們還沒有實現自由現金流中性，對吧？對我們來說，關鍵問題仍然是高昂的能源成本。

So again, here, we are trying to engage in discussions with the government to show the importance to bring that to levels that are -- that will allow the industry to be sustainable even in this very challenging conditions of the war. We'll see. But for now, the plan is to continue to produce. We have the mining operations that are also close to capacity. So we are able to sell the iron ore to our own mills either in Europe or to third parties outside.

所以，我們再次嘗試與政府進行討論，以表明將相關水平提升到一定程度的重要性——這將使該行業即使在戰爭這種極具挑戰性的條件下也能持續發展。我們拭目以待。但就目前而言，計劃是繼續生產。我們的採礦作業也接近產能飽和。因此，我們可以將鐵礦石出售給我們在歐洲的自有工廠，也可以出售給歐洲以外的第三方。

So yes, I think it's -- for now, we are managing through a very challenging situation.

所以，是的，我認為——就目前而言，我們正在應對一個非常具有挑戰性的局面。

So we'll move now to take the next question, which is going to be from Bastian at Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們將回答下一個問題，這個問題來自德意志銀行的巴斯蒂安。

My first one is on Europe, and can I please come back on the situation here in the context of the policy plans? So when you look at the European capacity landscape, do you believe that the current capacity, which is in operation, would be enough to pick up the additional market share, which the domestic industry would likely absorb from the imports? Or would this 10 million tonnes, which you referred to in the chart require [idle] capacity to restart? And then maybe just as a quick add-on to that, are you generally more positive on the volume or the price leverage for your business from the policy, which has been laid out? Those are my first questions.

我的第一個問題是關於歐洲的，請問我能否結合政策計劃，談談這裡的情況？那麼，從歐洲產能格局來看，您是否認為目前已投入營運的產能足以彌補國內產業可能從進口產品中吸收的額外市場份額？或者，您在圖表中提到的這 1000 萬噸產能是否需要（閒置的）產能重新啟動？另外，您認為根據已製定的政策，您更看好業務的銷售還是價格優勢？這些是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Well, I think in terms of -- as we know, I mean, and that was also made very clear by Europe, by the commission. As we know, the capacity utilization in Europe today is low. And that's the whole idea behind some of these trade actions to allow the industry to regain a level that is more sustainable, right?

是的。嗯，我認為就我們所知而言——我的意思是，歐洲和歐盟委員會也對此表達得非常清楚。眾所周知，目前歐洲的產能利用率很低。而這正是這些貿易措施背後的全部理念，即讓該行業恢復到更永續的水平，對吧？

And I think, Bastian, it will depend on where you are in Europe, right? So there can be cases where you're going to need to bring some idle capacity. And then, of course, costs are going to be also higher because you're not going to have the benefit of the fixed cost, right? So it's difficult to be very precise on that.

巴斯蒂安，我覺得這取決於你在歐洲的哪個地方，對吧？所以有時會出現需要啟用一些閒置產能的情況。當然，由於無法享受固定成本的好處，成本也會更高，對吧？所以很難對此做出非常精確的回答。

And for us, I think it's -- I guess what is important here is really to make sure that the industry can run at a decent level of capacity utilization, right? I think that's the whole idea because then, you can earn your cost of capital, you can optimize your fixed cost base, your cost base, et cetera, et cetera. So that's how we are seeing it.

對我們來說，我認為——我想這裡真正重要的是確保該行業能夠以合理的產能利用率運行，對吧？我認為這就是關鍵所在，因為這樣一來，你就可以收回你的資本成本，優化你的固定成本基礎、成本基礎等等。這就是我們的看法。

Okay. And just in terms of the leverage for your own business, when you look at the gives and takes, are you more positive on the price effect? Or are you more positive on the volume impact on your earnings contribution?

好的。就您自身業務的槓桿作用而言，當您權衡利弊時，您是否更看好價格效應？或者您更看好銷售量對您收入貢獻的影響？

Well, I want to be drawn on that. I think for us, as I said, what is important is that we can run our facilities at a higher capacity utilization, right? And that should be then, if you have less imports, which as we know today, the cost or the price of imports is so low, right?

嗯，我想參與討論。我認為，正如我所說，對我們來說重要的是，我們可以提高設施的產能利用率，對吧？如果進口減少，情況應該就是這樣，而我們今天都知道，進口成本或價格非常低，對吧？

Daniel, do you want to add anything to this question?

丹尼爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. So I think like you're saying, it's very difficult to isolate the sort of contribution of the fixed cost absorption, the sort of operating leverage or the impact of just higher industry utilization on spreads. But I think I'm sure you've analyzed this in the past that, Bastian, there's a good correlation between spreads and utilization. So there should be two factors, and those two factors should contribute to what Genuino is talking about, our business in Europe, the industry in Europe being in a position to covers cost of capital. And that's ultimately the objective here.

是的。所以我覺得就像你說的，很難將固定成本吸收、經營槓桿或產業利用率提高對價差的影響等因素單獨考慮。但我相信你以前肯定分析過這個問題，巴斯蒂安，價差和利用率之間有很好的相關性。所以應該有兩個因素，這兩個因素應該有助於 Genuino 所說的，也就是我們在歐洲的業務，歐洲的產業能夠涵蓋資本成本。而這才是我們最終的目標。

Okay. Sounds good. And my next question is on North America. And I guess one of your Canadian peers here is heavily loss-making. Could you maybe give us a bit of color on how Dofasco is actually performing on a single entity basis?

好的。聽起來不錯。我的下一個問題是關於北美的。我猜你們加拿大同業中一定有人虧損嚴重。能否請您詳細介紹一下 Dofasco 單一實體的實際運作？

And are you still making money there?

你現在還在那裡賺錢嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Dofasco is one of the best facilities in the world. And so it's still very much profitable.

是的，絕對的。Dofasco是世界上最好的設施之一。所以它仍然非常有利可圖。

Okay. Great. And then very last question, just on your expansion strategy in Hazira. Is that on track? And just, I guess, given what you discussed earlier in terms of the capacity, which has been brought on already this year.

好的。偉大的。最後一個問題，關於您在哈茲拉的擴張策略。進度如何？而且，我想，考慮到你之前討論過的產能問題，今年已經實現了產能提升。

Do you think the market is ready for the ramp-up next year as you're planning it?

你認為市場是否已準備好迎接你計畫中的明年產能提升？

Yes. I think, first of all, our projects are ongoing and going well. So we're going to be, as we discussed, commissioning some of the finishing lines still later this year, beginning of next year. And then during 2026, we're going to be completing the upstream, including coke batteries. And a lot of the new capacity has just come down.

是的。我認為，首先，我們的專案正在進行中，而且進展順利。正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們將在今年稍後或明年年初啟用一些收尾生產線。然後在 2026 年，我們將完成上游建設，包括焦炭電池。而且很多新增產能都下降了。

So I think we're going to be in a good position to ramp up our own capacity. So allowing some time so the market can absorb that. So I think in terms of timing, it looks good, Bastian.

所以我認為我們將處於有利地位，可以迅速提升自身的產能。所以需要給市場一些時間來消化這些資訊。所以我覺得從時機來看，巴斯蒂安，這看起來不錯。

Great. So we still have a few more questions to take, Genuino. So the first of those we will take from Dominic at JPMorgan.

偉大的。所以我們還有幾個問題要回答，Genuino。所以，我們首先要介紹的是摩根大通的Dominic。

Just a couple of quick questions on, again, sort of real-time indicators of demand. You obviously have a seasonal slowdown in the North American market. But are you seeing any visible signs of kind of new pockets of weakness in the US, particularly given the government shutdown?

關於即時需求指標，我還有幾個簡單的問題。北美市場顯然存在季節性放緩。但鑑於政府停擺，您是否看到美國出現任何新的弱點的明顯跡象？

And then my second question relates to Europe and the auto segment. Do you have any insight you can share with regards to how you're approaching contracts moving into January?

我的第二個問題與歐洲和汽車產業有關。關於您如何處理一月份的合同，您有什麼見解可以分享嗎？

Yes. So starting with the US, you're right. So I think overall, we all know the numbers, right? So the demand moving sideways. But I would say that when I look at our business, Calvert is running absolutely full.

是的。所以，從美國開始，你說得對。所以我覺得總的來說，我們都知道這些數字，對吧？所以需求呈現橫盤走勢。但就我觀察，卡爾弗特的業務已經完全飽和了。

We had record levels of production shipments, right? So the two segments where we are very much focused, the energy, automotive doing relatively well.

我們的生產出貨量創下了歷史新高，對吧？因此，我們重點關注的兩個領域是能源和汽車，這兩個領域發展得相對不錯。

And then when it comes to Canada and Mexico, I think that's where we also see some potential because, of course, the demand domestically, let's forget tariffs for a moment, also significantly impacted, right, with all the uncertainties created by the change in the relationship between the various governments within North America. So I think we see potential for stabilization there that should also support the shipments domestically in Canada and Mexico.

至於加拿大和墨西哥，我認為我們也看到了一些潛力，因為當然，國內需求（暫且不談關稅）也受到了很大的影響，對吧？北美各國政府間關係的變化帶來了許多不確定性。所以我認為我們看到了那裡的穩定潛力，這也應該有助於加拿大和墨西哥國內的貨運。

Coming to the auto contracts, I mean, it's going to be just how it is. So I think we have a lot to offer to the automakers. In some cases, in North America, as we know, the negotiations will happen gradually during the year. And in Europe, there has weight to the beginning of the year. So this process is ongoing.

至於汽車合同，我的意思是，事情就是這樣。所以我認為我們能為汽車製造商提供很多東西。我們知道，在北美的一些情況下，談判會在一年內逐步進行。在歐洲，年初具有重要意義。所以這個過程仍在進行中。

And I expect that it will be -- as always is, we have an agreement that is -- that should be a win-win for both companies.

我預計這將像以往一樣，我們達成了一項協議，這對兩家公司來說應該是雙贏的。

Is there any sense that the price tension that we've seen over the last two years could alleviate this time around?

過去兩年來的價格緊張局勢是否有可能在這次有所緩解？

Yes. As you know, I mean, we don't comment on -- specifically on prices, as you can imagine. So these negotiations, first of all, they are specific. And so we don't comment on prices. I would just -- of course, the spot price is always a reference, right, starting point.

是的。如您所知，我們不會評論——特別是價格，您可以想像。所以這些談判，首先，都是具體的。因此，我們不對價格發表評論。當然，現貨價格始終是一個參考值，對吧，一個起點。

You see prices moving higher in Europe already. They are also coming up again in North America. We talked about prices in Brazil also, higher prices being announced. So I think the environment is, in that sense, it is positive.

歐洲的物價已經開始上漲了。它們在北美也再次出現。我們也談到了巴西的物價，據說那裡的價格正在上漲。所以我認為從這個意義上講，環境是正面的。

So we will move now to Andy at UBS.

接下來我們將連線瑞銀的安迪。

So just to go back to the European question about the CO2. Can you just remind us what your emissions are likely to finish at in 2025 if we assume the normal seasonal uptick in 4Q and how that compares to your free allocation levels this year?

所以，讓我們回到歐洲關於二氧化碳的問題。能否請您提醒我們一下，如果假設第四季度出現正常的季節性增長，貴公司 2025 年的排放量可能會達到多少，以及這與您今年的免費配額水平相比如何？

And going into 2026 with the reduction of the free allocations, and I guess at some of your sites, you produced less in recent years, so you may lose some free allocation because of lower production. Can you give us an idea by how much you expect your free allocation to change next year? And maybe as a follow-on to that, are there any assets which are kind of emitting less the reallocation where the uplift in production would have minimal cost on the CO2 side. Just to give us an idea for how much you could ramp production easily.

進入 2026 年，免費配額減少，而且我猜你們的一些站點近年來產量較低，所以你們可能會因為產量降低而失去一些免費配額。您能否大致估算一下明年您的免費額度會有多大變化？或許可以進一步探討一下，是否存在一些資產，在重新配置後排放量會減少，而產量的提昇在二氧化碳排放方面帶來的成本又可以降到最低？只是為了讓我們了解您可以輕鬆提高產量多少。

Andy, I mean this is -- I mean, there are many, many moving parts, right, when it comes to [DTS] system, it is complex. I would just say that as we know, in Europe, most players, if not all players, they are short, right? So they don't meet the benchmarks.

安迪，我的意思是，[DTS] 系統涉及很多很多環節，對吧，它很複雜。我想說的是，眾所周知，在歐洲，大多數球員，如果不是全部的話，個子都很矮，對吧？所以他們沒有達到標準。

I would say a good rule of thumb, it's about -- you're paying CO2 costs for about 20% of your production, right? That's the ballpark to give you an idea. I think when we look at our -- and it's always based on an average, you have your how. So it's highly technical.

我覺得比較好的經驗法則是──你付出的二氧化碳成本大約佔你生產成本的 20%，對吧？這只是個大概的範圍，給你個概念。我認為當我們審視我們的——而且它總是基於平均值，你就會有你的方式。所以它技術性很強。

So we don't really expect going forward in 2026 that we're going to be losing free emissions meaningfully because of levels of operation, right? But as we know, there are reductions, gradual reductions that will happen with the implementation of CBAM. You need to take that into account. And there are also revisions to the benchmarks, right? So that's the situation.

因此，我們預計到 2026 年，由於營運水準的提高，我們不會大幅減少自由排放，對吧？但我們知道，隨著 CBAM 的實施，將會減少，逐漸減少。你需要把這一點考慮進去。基準測試也有所修訂，對吧？情況就是這樣。

But you don't have a number of credits reduction that you expect for next year?

但是，您預計明年的學分減免額度是多少呢？

Well, I mean, we all know what's going to happen in terms of reductions. There is a 2% reduction in the [DTS] system, the three allowances, right? And then we have to see what happens now with the benchmarks. So it's too early to talk about it.

嗯，我的意思是，我們都知道接下來會發生什麼，例如減產。[DTS] 系統中的三個津貼減少了 2%，對嗎？接下來，我們要來看看基準測試的結果如何。所以現在談論這件事還為時過早。

I would just add that what is important here also is now with CBAM, right, and to the extent that CBAM is effective, then at least you are at par with imports. So they will be paying the same costs, right? I think I would encourage you also to see to the extent that costs increase in Europe, but you have at least the same cost being applied to imports, at least there is a level playing field in that regard, right, which is, I guess, what the whole industry in Europe has been advocating.

我還要補充一點，現在有了 CBAM，對吧？如果 CBAM 有效，那麼至少你們就能與進口產品持平。所以他們支付的費用是一樣的，對吧？我認為我也想鼓勵你們看看，雖然歐洲的成本有所增加，但至少進口商品的成本是相同的，至少在這方面存在一個公平的競爭環境，對吧？我想，這正是整個歐洲產業一直在倡導的。

Okay. That's clear. And just a second question on Canada. There was a recent document about medium and light -- medium and heavy vehicles, a proclamation on the auto industry from the White House, which have a paragraph in it talking about potential carve-outs for auto-grade steel from Canada where the tariff would drop by -- from 50% to 25%, conditional on some conditions around like investments in the US and things like that.

好的。這一點很清楚。關於加拿大，我還有一個問題。最近有一份關於中型和輕型車輛——中型和重型車輛的文件，一份來自白宮的汽車行業公告，其中有一段談到了對加拿大汽車級鋼材的潛在豁免，關稅將從 50% 降至 25%，但需滿足一些條件，例如在美國的投資等等。

I was wondering how you interpreted that because it seems slightly unclear to me. But if you've got an asset in the US that you're clearly investing in, do you see potential to use that recent proclamation to reduce the tariff from Dofasco into the US?

我想知道你是如何理解這句話的，因為我覺得它有點不清楚。但是，如果你在美國擁有一項你明顯在投資的資產，你認為有可能利用最近的公告來降低從多法斯科公司到美國的關稅嗎？

My understanding is that the negotiations at this point in time, as we all know, they are suspended, right? And we are hoping that they will resume the negotiations. And then we'll see finally what comes out of these discussions. I don't have anything else really to add.

據我了解，目前談判已經暫停，我們都知道這一點，對嗎？我們希望他們能夠恢復談判。然後，我們最終會看到這些討論會產生什麼結果。我沒什麼要補充的了。

So two questions left. So we're going to take the first of those from Phil at KeyBanc.

還剩下兩個問題。所以我們要從 KeyBanc 的 Phil 那裡得到第一個答案。

Regarding North America, how is the Calvert EAF ramp going? And is that part of your incremental 2026 strategic EBITDA growth bridge as you look into next year as that comes up to the levels you expect?

關於北美地區，卡爾弗特電弧爐的改造進度如何？而這是否是您2026年策略性EBITDA成長計畫的一部分，因為您預計明年EBITDA將達到預期水準？

Yes. Well, we are ramping up. So our expectation now -- latest expectation is to end the year with a run rate between 40% and 50%. So it's progressing. We started also the qualification process.

是的。我們正在加緊推進。所以我們現在的預期——最新的預期是，今年的勝率將在 40% 到 50% 之間。所以，事情正在進展。我們也啟動了資格審查程序。

And you're right. So when you look at our bridge, that is on slide 10 and the 800 million, then you're going to have contribution from Calvert in two buckets.

你說得對。所以，當你看到我們的橋樑，也就是第 10 張投影片上的 8 億美元時，你會發現卡爾弗特的貢獻分成兩部分。

One is, of course, we're going to be consolidating Calvert for the full year. And as you know, we started the consolidation in end of quarter two. So you're going to have an extra contribution from Calvert consolidation, which is in our M&A bucket. And you're going to have the contribution from the EAF. Especially in this environment, right, when we are -- when Calvert is also paying for tariffs on the slabs.

首先，當然，我們將全年整合 Calvert 公司。如您所知，我們在第二季末開始了整合工作。因此，Calvert 合併將為我們提供額外的資金，這筆資金屬於我們的併購範疇。你們還將獲得EAF的捐款。尤其是在這種環境下，對吧，當卡爾弗特還要為石板支付關稅的時候。

So that is also part of the 600 million that you see from projects. So Calvert next year, it's in the two buckets there.

所以這也是你從專案中看到的 6 億美元的一部分。所以卡爾弗特明年就有機會了，就看這兩個桶子了。

And as a follow-up, you mentioned in your remarks in your analyst deck that Canada is beginning to address some of the unfairly traded steel or some level of reciprocity for the US tariffs. What have they done specifically? And do you think they're doing enough?

作為後續，您在分析師報告中提到，加拿大正在著手解決一些不公平的鋼鐵貿易問題，或對美國關稅採取一定程度的對等措施。他們具體做了什麼？你認為他們做得夠嗎？

Well, as we know, we have a very large level of imports into Canada, right? So of course, they reduce the quotas for non-FTA countries. That's a good step, but it doesn't really address the problem. So we believe that Canada should be put in place a much stronger trade protection to make sure that the industry can again also regain market share vis-a-vis imports. As we know, a lot of the imports also come from the US, right?

我們都知道，加拿大進口量非常大，對吧？所以，他們當然會減少非自由貿易協定國家的配額。這是一個好的開始，但這並沒有真正解決問題。因此，我們認為應該對加拿大實施更強有力的貿易保護，以確保該行業能夠再次奪回相對於進口產品的市場份額。我們知道，很多進口商品也來自美國，對吧？

And there, we are hopeful, again, as we said, that Canada, US, Mexico, and maybe as part of the USMCA negotiations, they will also come to an agreement. And that would be very, very good, right, if you have the whole USMCA with similar rules, similar protection. So that would be extremely positive. And you would expect if you have a common trade block that the rules would be similar.

我們再次表示希望，正如我們所說，加拿大、美國、墨西哥，或許作為美墨加協定談判的一部分，也能達成協議。如果能達成一項包含類似規則和類似保護措施的全面美墨加協定，那將是非常非常好的，對吧。那將是極其積極的。如果存在共同的貿易集團，那麼規則理應相似。

So we'll take our final question, and we'll take that from Boris at Kepler Cheuvreux.

那麼，我們來看最後一個問題，這個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Boris。

Two questions and one technical precision. The first is on Europe. I think you're quite close with politics in talks about those trade barriers to be implemented. What is your take on the fact that those proposals of the European Commission will be adopted in the current state they have been proposed or whether there could be some dilution? That would be my first question.

兩個問題和一個技術細節。第一點是關於歐洲的。我認為你在有關貿易壁壘的談判中與政界人士關係非常密切。您認為歐盟委員會的這些提案會以目前的形式被採納，還是有可能進行一些修改？這將是我的第一個問題。

Then on China, there is a lot of talks about the anti-involution measures. Do you see any chance that China might be moving towards a cut in production as some headlines were referring earlier this year?

然後，關於中國，有很多關於反內捲措施的討論。你認為中國有可能像今年稍早一些新聞報導所說的那樣，走向減產嗎？

And lastly, just to confirm what you said earlier on the market share in Europe, is it 30% or 20% to 30%?

最後，為了確認您之前提到的歐洲市場份額，是 30% 還是 20% 到 30%？

Okay. So Boris, I will take your first question, and then I will comment on China. Well, I mean the dilution risk, I mean there is a process, right? So the proposal is now going through the parliament, it's going through the council. I think there is a desire expressed by a number of governments by the commission to have an accelerated approval process.

好的。那麼，鮑里斯，我先回答你的第一個問題，然後再談談中國。嗯，我的意思是稀釋風險，我的意思是這裡面有一個流程，對吧？所以這項提案現在正在議會和市政委員會審議中。我認為委員會代表一些政府表達了希望加快審批程序的願望。

And that is only possible if we don't have a significant change. So I think that's our request that we have these measures in place as soon as possible.

只有在沒有重大變化的情況下，這才有可能發生。所以我認為，我們的訴求就是盡快落實這些措施。

And then on the market, that's -- I mean, that's -- I'm just giving you a reference.

至於市場上的情況，我的意思是，我只是舉個例子給你聽。

Okay. Daniel, do you want to talk about China?

好的。丹尼爾，你想談談中國嗎？

Yes, yes. So it's obviously a question that we receive on most of our calls around the theme of China excess capacity, when will they address it, when will they take measures to structurally reform the industry to balance domestic capacity with domestic demand and in an effort to restore the industry to health, to reasonable levels of profitability, reasonable margins, et cetera, et cetera.

是的，是的。因此，在我們圍繞中國產能過剩主題的大多數電話會議中，我們顯然都會收到這樣的問題：他們何時才能解決這個問題？他們何時才能採取措施對行業進行結構性改革，以平衡國內產能與國內需求，並努力使該行業恢復健康，達到合理的盈利水平、合理的利潤率等等？

So to your question, there have, of course, been lots of headlines and suggestions that steel could be one of the beneficiaries of the anti-involution theme in China this year. But the reality is that we really haven't seen any changes in the impact that China is having in external markets. So they continue to have weak prices, very weak margins. Generally, there's a substantial proportion of the industry operating with -- on a loss-making basis. And they continue to export at extremely elevated levels, run rates of 120 million tonne, 130 million tonnes annualized.

所以，對於你的問題，當然有很多新聞標題和建議認為，鋼鐵可能是今年中國反內捲化主題的受益者之一。但現實情況是，我們並沒有看到中國對外部市場的影響有任何變化。所以它們的價格依然疲軟，利潤率也很低。整體而言，該產業中有相當一部分企業處於虧損狀態。而他們的出口量持續維持在極高的水平，年化出口量為 1.2 億噸至 1.3 億噸。

So those negative domestic dynamics are then being translated into other regions through those exports.

因此，這些負面的國內動態會透過出口傳遞到其他地區。

So I guess my answer to your question is until we really see strong evidence of change, and that would be through improved prices, improved margins, improved profitability and most importantly, through reduced exports, then nothing is really changing. And that just puts even more emphasis on the requirement for governments to take appropriate actions to ring-fence those domestic industries from these negative impacts of excess capacity in China.

所以，我對你的問題的回答是，除非我們真正看到強有力的變動證據，例如價格上漲、利潤率提高、獲利能力增強，最重要的是出口減少，否則一切都不會真正改變。這更凸顯了各國政府採取適當措施保護國內產業免受中國產能過剩負面影響的必要性。

So Genuino, he was just talking about the progress, the strong progress that we're making in Europe. We talked earlier about what's happening in Brazil. But it's clear that, that's the best way to deal with this issue is by putting appropriate protections in place.

所以傑努伊諾，他剛才談到了我們在歐洲的進步，巨大的進步。我們之前談到了巴西正在發生的事情。但很顯然，解決這個問題的最佳方法是採取適當的保護措施。

Great. So I think that's our last question, Genuino. So I'll hand back to you for any closing remarks.

偉大的。所以我想這是我們最後一個問題了，Genuino。那麼，我把發言權交還給您，請您作總結發言。

Thank you, everyone. Before we close, let me briefly reiterate the key messages from the start of the call. First, our results continue to demonstrate structural improvements. The fact that we are posting such improved results at what we believe to be the bottom of the cycle bodes well for when conditions normalize.

謝謝大家。在結束之前，請允許我簡要重申通話開始時的關鍵訊息。首先，我們的結果持續顯示出結構性改善。我們目前正處於週期的底部，卻取得瞭如此顯著的進步，這預示著當市場環境恢復正常時，情況會好轉。

Secondly, our underlying business continues to generate healthy cash flows. Looking behind seasonal working capital movements shows that we continue to generate good underlying free cash flow, and this is after having invested close to $1 billion in our strategic growth projects. These projects are delivering structurally high EBITDA, and this will continue in 2026.

其次，我們的基礎業務持續產生健康的現金流。撇開季節性營運資本變動不談，我們持續產生良好的潛在自由現金流，而這還是在我們已投資近 10 億美元用於戰略成長項目之後。這些項目帶來了結構性高 EBITDA，這種情況將持續到 2026 年。

Finally, the outlook for our business has clearly improved over the past three months. The newly proposed trade tool, combined with an effective CBAM provides the foundation for our new business to earn its cost of capital. Together with the actions being taken in other regions like Brazil and Canada, this continues to point towards a more regionalized and better protected steel industry in which ArcelorMittal can thrive.

最後，在過去三個月裡，我們公司的業務前景明顯改善。新提出的交易工具，結合有效的 CBAM，為我們的新業務賺取資本成本奠定了基礎。結合巴西和加拿大等其他地區正在採取的行動，這繼續表明鋼鐵業將更加區域化和受到更好的保護，安賽樂米塔爾可以在這種行業中蓬勃發展。

With that, I will close today's call. And if you need anything further, please do reach out to Daniel and his team. I look forward to speaking with you soon. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much.

今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您還有任何需要，請隨時聯繫丹尼爾和他的團隊。期待盡快與您聯繫。注意自身安全，並保護好身邊的人。非常感謝。