ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress during the first half of 2025.

大家下午好。我是安賽樂米塔爾投資者關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。感謝您參加本次電話會議，討論安賽樂米塔爾 2025 年上半年的業績和進展。

Leading today's call will be our CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation in detail, but we published it this morning on our website for your information. I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers that are on slide number 25 of that presentation.

主持今天電話會議的將是我們的財務長 Genuino Christino 先生。在我們開始之前，我想提一些日常事務。像往常一樣，我們不會詳細介紹結果介紹，但我們今天早上在我們的網站上發布了它，供您參考。我確實想提請您注意該簡報第 25 張投影片上的免責聲明。

As normal, Genuino will make some opening remarks before moving directly to the Q&A session. (Event Instructions) Over to you, Genuino.

像往常一樣，Genuino 會先發表一些開場白，然後直接進入問答環節。（活動說明）交給你了，Genuino。

Thanks, Daniel. And welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief. Beginning with safety, the core value for our company. We are less than one year into what we know will be at least a three-year transformation to implement the six-core safety recommendations post the audit last year. Already our enhanced safety assurance model has improved oversight and consistency. I'm encouraged by the progress we are making and the determination that I see in my colleagues to drive lasting change and achieve our targets as quickly as possible.

謝謝，丹尼爾。歡迎大家，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，我將簡短地發言。從安全開始，這是我們公司的核心價值。我們知道，實施去年審計後的六項核心安全建議至少需要三年時間，而現在距離目標不到一年。我們增強的安全保證模型已經提高了監督和一致性。我們所取得的進展以及同事們推動持久變革和盡快實現目標的決心令我感到鼓舞。

Now I want to focus this quarter on three key points. First and foremost, our results continue to show structural improvements. Second, quarterly EBITDA increased as expected, and at $135 per ton, our margin continues to show that the benefits of our asset optimization and growth strategy are delivering structurally higher margins.

現在我想在本季重點討論三個重點。首先，我們的結果繼續顯示出結構性的改善。其次，季度 EBITDA 按預期成長，達到每噸 135 美元，我們的利潤率繼續表明，我們的資產優化和成長策略帶來的好處正在帶來結構性更高的利潤率。

Our strategic projects have good momentum. Liberia posted a record volume quarter. Our India renewables project is delivering all the performance that was expected and more. And the commissioning of our new value-added capacity at Hazira is underway.

我們的策略項目發展勢頭良好。利比里亞本季的產量創下紀錄。我們的印度再生能源項目正在實現預期的所有業績，甚至超乎預期。我們在哈茲拉的新增值產能的調試正在進行中。

Our strategic projects together with the impacts of recently completed M&A are an important support to our EBITDA profile. Compared to 2024 base, the impact on future normalized EBITDA is now expected to be $2.1 billion, a third of which is due to be captured in the current financial year.

我們的策略項目以及最近完成的併購的影響對我們的 EBITDA 狀況提供了重要支撐。與 2024 年基準相比，預計未來正常化 EBITDA 的影響為 21 億美元，其中三分之一將在本財年實現。

ArcelorMittal has a unique asset portfolio, and this creates significant optionality for high return strategic investments. So I'm confident that we can maintain our growth momentum. My second point is that full ownership of Calvert is a very positive development for ArcelorMittal.

安賽樂米塔爾擁有獨特的資產組合，為高回報策略投資創造了很大的選擇性。因此，我相信我們能夠保持成長勢頭。我的第二點是，完全擁有 Calvert 對安賽樂米塔爾來說是一個非常積極的發展。

Calvert is the premier steelmaking facility in the United States and the cornerstone of our North America franchise. Calvert achieved a new shipment record in the second quarter, 10% higher than the first quarter and 10% above the same period last year.

卡爾弗特是美國首屈一指的煉鋼廠，也是我們北美特許經營的基石。Calvert第二季出貨量創下新高，較第一季成長10%，較去年同期成長10%。

Since 2014, Calvert has invested over 2 billion in improving its asset base and product portfolio. The biggest investment has been the new state of the art yet, which is ramping up right now and could not have been better timed. Along with the new seven-year domestic slap supply contract, Calvert's highest quality finished steel will meet US melted and pool requirements.

自2014年以來，Calvert已投資超過20億美元用於改善其資產基礎和產品組合。迄今為止最大的投資是最新技術，目前正在加速發展，時機再好不過了。連同新的七年期國內鋼材供應合同，卡爾弗特最高品質的成品鋼材將滿足美國熔煉和熔池要求。

And we will continue to invest in the US. Our project to build a new world-class non-grain oriented electrical steel facility in Alabama is well underway. This will be a $1 billion investment over the next few years, with first production anticipated in 2027. And then, of course, we have the second EAF at Calvert, a decision on which will be taken as part of our next capital allocation cycle.

我們將繼續在美國投資。我們在阿拉巴馬州建造一座新的世界級無晶粒取向電工鋼工廠的工程正在順利進行中。這將是未來幾年 10 億美元的投資，預計 2027 年將首次投產。當然，我們在卡爾弗特還有第二個 EAF，我們將在下一個資本配置週期中做出決定。

My final point is on Europe, where we are transitioning to a more favorable market structure. We have the promise of a trade defense mechanism that protects the domestic industry and a carbon border that truly delivers a level playing field. A lot still needs to be action over the second half of this year, but if the European Commission delivers, then our business should be in a far better position to deliver the margins and returns on capital it is capable of when not suppressed by unfair trade.

我的最後一點是關於歐洲的，我們正在向更有利的市場結構轉型。我們承諾建立保護國內產業的貿易防禦機制和真正提供公平競爭環境的碳邊界。今年下半年仍有許多工作要做，但如果歐盟委員會能夠兌現承諾，那麼我們的業務將能夠更好地實現利潤和資本回報，而不會受到不公平貿易的壓制。

Added to this more favorable mix is the prospect of demand support from low interest rates and higher investment in defense and infrastructure. Our market position and product capabilities place ArcelorMittal favorably to capitalize on the opportunities these trends should create.

除這個更有利的組合外，還有低利率和增加國防和基礎設施投資帶來的需求支援前景。我們的市場地位和產品能力使安賽樂米塔爾能夠充分利用這些趨勢所創造的機會。

Putting this all together, ArcelorMittal is in a strong position both operationally and financially. Our optimized asset portfolio is delivering structurally higher margins. And with the outlook supported by our strategic growth projects, this should continue. The value we are creating is being compounded by our share buybacks.

綜合以上所有因素，安賽樂米塔爾在營運和財務上都處於強勢地位。我們優化的資產組合正在提供結構性更高的利潤率。在我們的策略性成長項目的支持下，這種情況應該會持續下去。我們所創造的價值正透過股票回購而不斷增加。

Over the past 4.5 years, we have bought back 38% of our equity. Each ArcelorMittal share now represents a greater proportion of our capacity, a bigger share of our lead franchise businesses, a larger stake in our growth projects, and a greater ownership of our unique business in India.

在過去的4.5年裡，我們回購了38%的股權。現在，每一股安賽樂米塔爾股票都代表著我們更大比例的產能、更大份額的特許經營業務、更大份額的增長項目以及更大份額的我們在印度獨特業務的所有權。

With that, Daniel, I believe we can start the Q&As.

丹尼爾，我想我們可以開始問答了。

(Event Instructions) Alain, Morgan Stanley.

（活動說明）阿蘭，摩根士丹利。

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions if I may. The first one is on the EBITDA building blocks into Q3 '25. Can you walk us through the different moving parts, including the ASP in Europe and North America, the dollar impact of tariffs on North America, and the power outage impact on Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico, if you don't mind. That's my first question. Thanks.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。如果可以的話我有兩個問題。第一個是關於 25 年第三季 EBITDA 的基礎部分。如果你不介意的話，你能否向我們介紹不同的活動部分，包括歐洲和北美的平均售價、關稅對北美美元的影響以及停電對墨西哥拉薩羅卡德納斯的影響。這是我的第一個問題。謝謝。

Thank you a lot. So I will start with your second question on Mexico, and then, as usual, then I will walk you through the moving blocks. So in quarter two, as you can see and as highlighted in our earnings, we face operational issues with one of our transformers. So that impacted the production of our EAF.

非常感謝。因此，我將從您關於墨西哥的第二個問題開始，然後像往常一樣，我將帶您了解移動塊。因此，在第二季度，正如您所看到的以及我們的收益中所強調的，我們的一台變壓器遇到了運行問題。這影響了我們的 EAF 的生產。

That has been restored, yes. And as you know, that's our most important part of the business as a flat business, so that is up and running again. Nevertheless, as we disclosed in our MDA of our NAFTA segment, we experienced $40 million of losses because of the operational issues in quarter two.

是的，已經恢復了。如你所知，作為扁平化業務，這是我們業務中最重要的部分，因此它已經恢復正常運作。然而，正如我們在北美自由貿易協定部門的 MDA 中所揭露的那樣，由於第二季的營運問題，我們遭受了 4000 萬美元的損失。

We have subsequently taken the decision to bring down the partners that is producing for the long business for maintenance. And these finances will most likely continue to be down for the next couple of months as we perform this maintenance. So that's why -- and then it will comment -- we will continue to see shipments at the same level as you see in in quarter two coming from Mexico.

隨後，我們決定關閉長期生產業務的合作夥伴，以進行維護。在我們進行維護的過程中，這些財務狀況在接下來的幾個月裡很可能會繼續下降。這就是為什麼——然後它會評論——我們將繼續看到來自墨西哥的出貨量與第二季度保持相同的水平。

So we will get back the shipments from flat. But then you will see a reduction in shipments because the furnace is down. But quarter on quarter then, shipments should be relatively stable for Mexico. Daniel, do you want to talk about the moving parts?

因此我們將從平地取回貨物。但隨後你會看到出貨量減少，因為熔爐停了。但與上一季相比，墨西哥的出貨量應該相對穩定。丹尼爾，你想談談活動部件嗎？

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Genuino. So I think what I'd like to do is just focus on the key moving parts and we can get into any of these in more detail as you wish, Alain. But I think as we look from the second quarter to the third quarter and the bridge between the two quarters, I think the first thing to be anticipating is the impact of normal, seasonally lower volumes in the Europe segment. I think that's going to be the key driver for Europe performance quarter to quarter, normal seasonality of volumes.

是的，當然。謝謝，Genuino。所以我認為我想要做的就是專注於關鍵的活動部件，我們可以按照你的意願更詳細地討論其中任何一個，阿蘭。但我認為，當我們從第二季度展望第三季度以及兩個季度之間的橋樑時，我認為首先要預料的是歐洲地區正常的、季節性的銷售下降的影響。我認為這將成為歐洲季度業績表現的關鍵驅動力，銷售的正常季節性。

Second factor to look out for is in the North America segment. Yes, we will see marginally higher tariff costs, Section 232 tariff costs. But that will be more than offset by the impacts of the Calvert consolidation. And then the third factor I would be looking out for in the Q2 to Q3 bridge is the impact of lower volumes in the mining segment. Because we did see some volume catch up in the second quarter, and that would then repeat into Q3.

需要注意的第二個因素是北美地區。是的，我們將看到略高的關稅成本，第 232 條關稅成本。但這將被卡爾弗特合併的影響所抵消。然後，在第二季到第三季之間我要關注的第三個因素是採礦業產量下降的影響。因為我們確實看到第二季銷量有所回升，而這種情況將在第三季重複出現。

So mining volumes will sort of come down a little bit in Q3. But that should be the main impact in mining because, so far, quarter to date, pricing is a little bit higher than last quarter. So those are the main three factors I would be thinking about in terms of the bridge from Q2 to Q3.

因此第三季的採礦量將會略有下降。但這應該是採礦業的主要影響，因為到目前為止，本季的價格比上一季略高。因此，就從 Q2 到 Q3 的橋樑而言，這些就是我考慮的三個主要因素。

Thank you. And the cost at Mexico should be assumed still same cost q-on-q? Or is there going to be an increase in the cost run rate because of the stoppage?

謝謝。而墨西哥的成本是否應假設仍與 q-on-q 相同？或者由於停工，成本運行率是否會上升？

That's a good reference, Alain. So the $40 million, it's a good reference.

這是一個很好的參考，阿蘭。所以 4000 萬美元是一個很好的參考。

Thank you. And my second question is on Calvert. So we can see the path to being slab self-sufficient in the US at Calvert in the medium term. But in the short term, you're still highly dependent on imported material for your slabs. How do you plan to mitigate the risk of tariffs should the current 50% level remain unchanged versus Mexico and Brazil? Will you be changing the flows? How will you change the mechanics of the business? Thank you.

謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於卡爾弗特的。因此，我們可以看到，從中期來看，美國卡爾弗特將實現板材自給自足。但在短期內，您的板材仍高度依賴進口材料。如果目前對墨西哥和巴西的關稅水準保持不變，即 50%，您打算如何降低關稅風險？您會改變流程嗎？您將如何改變業務機制？謝謝。

I think what is important alliance is, as you know -- well, I mean, we have [EAF] that is ramping up, right? And then the new agreement that was signed with Nippon Steel and US Steel for a new slab supply agreement that will guarantee Calvert what it needs in terms of melted and poured materials in the United States. And then of course, the Calvert will still need to be importing slabs from either Brazil or Mexico, so we don't see that changing in the near future.

我認為，重要的是聯盟，正如你所知——嗯，我的意思是，我們的 [EAF] 正在不斷發展，對吧？然後，與新日鐵和美國鋼鐵公司簽署的新協議是新的板坯供應協議，該協議將保證卡爾弗特在美國獲得所需的熔化和澆注材料。當然，卡爾弗特仍然需要從巴西或墨西哥進口板材，所以我們認為這種情況在不久的將來不會改變。

But as you can see, I mean, a lot of the tariffs impact is already captured in our Q2 results, right? So as Daniel said, going forward, the increased incremental impact of tariffs is not so significant. And as you can see in the results of Calvert, it's really exceptional. So the run rate is getting very close to $900 million. So Calvert is doing extremely well, a record levels of shipments in quarter two. So where we really -- Calvert is not really the concern. I think the concern at this point is really the flows from Canada to the US. That's where we see the biggest impact today.

但正如您所看到的，關稅的許多影響已經體現在我們的第二季業績中了，對嗎？因此，正如丹尼爾所說，展望未來，關稅的增量影響並不那麼顯著。正如您在卡爾弗特的結果中所看到的，它確實非常出色。因此運行率非常接近 9 億美元。因此，卡爾弗特的表現非常好，第二季的出貨量創下了歷史新高。所以我們真正關心的不是卡爾弗特。我認為目前真正令人擔憂的是從加拿大流向美國的資金流。這就是我們今天看到的最大影響。

Ephrem, Citi.

埃弗雷姆，花旗。

Thanks. On the Calvert second year, as you said, in the next CapEx -- capital allocation cycle, you would be considering. Could you be a bit more specific with the time of that? Is it 2026, or is it second half of 2025?

謝謝。正如您所說，在卡爾弗特的第二年，在下一個資本支出—資本配置週期中，您會考慮。能更具體地說明時間嗎？是2026年，還是2025年下半年？

And the second question, regarding your comment on record. I know shipments from Liberia. I think it should be doing about $5 million per quarter for a ramp up. So it looks like you're doing close to 3 million tons in the second quarter, is that correct? And how should we think about the contribution margin of the additional tons? I suppose at a $100 benchmark, I know you'll be getting about $80 per ton additional contribution margin given the cost base is relatively fixed.

第二個問題是關於您記錄的評論。我知道有來自利比里亞的貨物。我認為每季應該投入約 500 萬美元來實現成長。那麼看起來你們第二季的產量接近 300 萬噸，對嗎？那我們該如何考慮額外噸位的貢獻利潤呢？我想，以 100 美元為基準，在成本基礎相對固定的情況下，我知道您將獲得每噸約 80 美元的額外貢獻利潤。

Yeah. So I think the first part of your question, the second, I think we have been very clear that that is something that we see as natural for the next step for COVID. We are advancing our studies, and I'm sure we're going to be in a position to update you more -- most likely I would say in our quarter four results.

是的。所以我認為你問題的第一部分，也就是第二部分，我想我們已經非常清楚，我們認為這是 COVID 下一步的自然現象。我們正在推進我們的研究，我相信我們將能夠向您提供更多資訊——我最有可能的是在我們的第四季度結果中。

I'm not saying that there will be a decision at that point in time, but we are progressing our studies. And this is something that just makes a lot of sense for us, given everything that we are seeing. And then of course, as we have been discussing, a lot of investments have already been made in anticipation of the second year. So CapEx wise, it should also make sense to move forward with this. The timing wise, you're going to need to bear with us for a little longer.

我並不是說到時候就會做出決定，但我們正在推進我們的研究。考慮到我們所看到的一切，這對我們來說非常有意義。當然，正如我們一直在討論的那樣，為了迎接第二年，我們已經進行了大量投資。因此從資本支出角度來看，繼續推動這項措施也是有意義的。從時間上來說，您需要再忍耐一會兒。

Liberia. Our guidance for Liberia this year is 10 million tons of shipments. So you can see that -- the run rate in H1, it's about 8 million tons. So we have commissioned the first line, so it's -- the first line of the concentrate, it's running. That's about 5 million tons. And we're going to be commissioning the other two lines as we progress now in the second half.

賴比瑞亞.我們今年對利比里亞的預期出貨量是1000萬噸。所以你可以看到——上半年的運行率約為 800 萬噸。因此，我們已經委託了第一條生產線，所以它是 - 濃縮物的第一條生產線，它正在運行。大約是500萬噸。隨著下半年的進展，我們將投入另外兩條生產線。

So in quarter three, the level of shipments that you're going to see, it's going to be largely the same. You're not going to see an increase in shipments in quarter three, but you're going to see already a changing mix. So you're going to see more sinter feed concentrate being shipped out of Liberia and less DSO. And then in quarter four with the three lines running, then we're going to be at higher levels of shipments. And we are comfortable at this point that we're going to be achieving our 10 million tons of guidance. And then of course, with the new product, you should also expect that profitability will increase, and we're going to be tail that more as we talked about quarter three.

因此，在第三季度，您將看到的出貨量水準將基本保持不變。你不會看到第三季的出貨量增加，但你會看到產品組合改變。因此，你會看到更多的燒結精礦從利比里亞運出，而DSO則減少。然後在第四季度，隨著三條生產線的運行，我們的出貨量將會更高。我們現在很有信心能夠實現 1000 萬噸的目標。當然，隨著新產品的推出，你也應該預期盈利能力會增加，正如我們在第三季度討論的那樣，我們將更多地關注這一點。

Boris, Kepler Cheuvreux.

鮑里斯·開普勒·舍夫勒。

Hi, hello, thank you for taking my question. The first question would be on tariffs. I've read a headline where you were quoting, estimating the impact of tariffs to $150 million. That means there is something like $50 million of mitigating measures. Can you share the way you mitigate those impacts and just confirm that the impact in Q1 was around $130 million already? And regarding CapEx, just back to that question on the second EAF, how confident are you to maintain your CapEx envelope of $4.5 billion to $5 billion over time? Thank you.

你好，你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於關稅的。我讀過您引用的一篇標題，估計關稅的影響將達到 1.5 億美元。這意味著需要大約 5000 萬美元的緩解措施。您能否分享一下減輕這些影響的方法，並確認第一季的影響已達到約 1.3 億美元？關於資本支出，回到第二個 EAF 的問題，您有多大信心將資本支出維持在 45 億美元至 50 億美元之間？謝謝。

Yeah, sure. Yeah, I can confirm, Boris. So in quarter two, we incurred about $140 million in costs with Section 232 tariffs. As we discussed it in Q1, the expectation was for this number to be lower, about $100 million. But of course, we had the increase in tariffs impacting us from the beginning of June.

是的，當然。是的，我可以確認，鮑里斯。因此，在第二季度，我們因第 232 條關稅而產生了約 1.4 億美元的成本。正如我們在第一季討論的那樣，預計這個數字會較低，約為 1 億美元。但當然，從六月初開始，關稅上調就對我們產生了影響。

And what we have been doing really is, as you can imagine, the whole organization, the whole Canadian team, they have been doing a tremendous job looking for opportunities to mitigate the impacts. And that's why we're confident here to guide for a number that is lower than otherwise we would have expected when we reported Q2 numbers. So that's the $150 million. So the net net from one quarter to the other, it's in the range of $10 million.

正如您所想像的，我們實際上所做的是，整個組織、整個加拿大團隊都在做大量工作，尋找機會減輕影響。這就是為什麼我們有信心預測第二季的數據會低於我們的預期。這就是1.5億美元。因此，從一個季度到另一個季度的淨利潤在 1000 萬美元左右。

And what we have been doing is, of course, discussing with our customers on sharing tariffs, looking at our cost base. So significant amount of work being done there to make sure that we can continue to supply the OAMs. And as you know, what we sell into the US is high value-added materials, important not only for us but also for our customers. And that's our focus to make sure that we can maintain our market share with the OAMs and make sure that we can also generate the profit with these volumes.

當然，我們一直在做的是與客戶討論共享關稅，並考慮我們的成本基礎。因此，我們正在進行大量工作以確保能夠繼續供應 OAM。如您所知，我們向美國銷售的是高附加價值材料，這不僅對我們很重要，對我們的客戶也很重要。我們的重點是確保我們能夠保持與 OAM 的市場份額，並確保我們也可以透過這些數量創造利潤。

And then, sorry, there is second part of your question, Boris. With the second year, how are we comfortable that we can manage? Look, I mean, we are finishing this year a number of projects. So we guided for this year to spend between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion with growth projects. But you should not forget that we're going to be completing this year Liberia, which has consumed a significant amount of the envelope.

然後，抱歉，這是你問題的第二部分，鮑里斯。第二年，我們怎樣才能安心度過？你看，我的意思是，我們今年完成了一些專案。因此，我們預計今年將在成長項目上投入 13 億至 15 億美元。但你不應該忘記，我們今年將要完成利比里亞的任務，這已經消耗了大量的信封。

So we'll be completing some of the smaller projects in Brazil as well. So we're going to be making a room for new projects that I'm sure we're going to be in a position to discuss together with our results in quarter four.

因此我們也將在巴西完成一些較小的專案。因此，我們將為新項目騰出空間，我相信我們將能夠在第四季度一起討論我們的結果。

Tom, Barclays.

湯姆，巴克萊銀行。

Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Sorry, I'm going to have to come back to it. Just on tariffs one more time, could you just -- just to sort of check our understanding on why there's so little increase, I suppose, into Q3, even though, from June, you've only had one month basically in 50% tariffs.

是的，你好。感謝您回答我的問題。抱歉，我得回過頭來再說。再說一次關稅問題，您能否——只是想了解一下我們對為什麼第三季度關稅增幅如此之小的理解，儘管從 6 月份開始，只有一個月的關稅基本上是 50%。

And you then had the consolidation of Calvert. So as I understand, you used to be sending about 2 million tons of slab every year from mostly Brazil into the Calvert JV. Those costs used to be shared with Nippon, but now you're basically resorbing 100% of those costs. Are you basically just saying most of these tariff costs have just being passed on to customers and that's why you're not absorbing anymore? And is that true out of Calvert as well? That's the first question.

然後你就有了卡爾弗特的合併。據我了解，你們每年主要從巴西向 Calvert JV 發送約 200 萬噸板坯。這些成本過去是與日本共同承擔的，但現在你們基本上要 100% 承擔這些成本。您是否只是說大部分關稅成本都轉嫁給了客戶，所以您不再吸收這些成本？卡爾弗特的情況也是如此嗎？這是第一個問題。

Look -- so as I said, I mean, I will just reiterate, I think we have been working on mitigating these impacts. And as you can imagine, a lot of initiatives, a lot of discussions with our customers. So we're going to be sharing tariffs with customers as well. So that's why net net, the increase should not be so significant.

看——正如我所說的，我的意思是，我只想重申一下，我認為我們一直在努力減輕這些影響。正如您所想像的，我們有很多舉措，與客戶進行了很多討論。因此我們也將與客戶分享關稅。所以這就是為什麼淨增幅不應該那麼顯著。

(multiple speakers) And that thought process around the slab movement, that's correct as well, right? You're now basically absorbing all of those slab tariff costs instead of sharing it with Nippon?

（多位發言者）圍繞板塊運動的思考過程也是正確的，對嗎？您現在基本上承擔了所有的分級關稅成本，而不是與 Nippon 分擔？

That's right. Because now we have -- so there are two things. Let's just make sure that we don't mix them. One is the supply agreement with the US steel facilities. So that has nothing to do with supply within the United States. So there is no tariffs there.

這是正確的。因為現在我們有──所以有兩件事。我們只要確保不要混淆它們即可。一是與美國鋼鐵廠簽訂的供貨協議。所以這與美國境內的供應無關。所以那裡沒有關稅。

And then the tariffs, of course, will be applicable for imports from either Brazil or Mexico. But then as you can see, I mean, as we talked about, when you see the performance of Calvert, then you can see that it's actually -- the profitability of that facility, it's actually increasing. And I should remind you that even before, the costs of the slabs that were being supplied to Calvert, they were under our responsibility, ArcelorMittal responsibility. And that's why we were capturing already part of the EBITDA in our segment, as we explained just to make sure that it's clear.

當然，關稅將適用於從巴西或墨西哥進口的商品。但正如您所看到的，我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，當您看到卡爾弗特的表現時，您會發現該設施的盈利能力實際上正在提高。我應該提醒你，甚至在此之前，供應給卡爾弗特的板坯成本就由我們，安賽樂米塔爾負責。這就是為什麼我們已經在我們的部門中獲取了部分 EBITDA，正如我們解釋的那樣，只是為了確保它清晰。

Yeah, okay, fair enough. And then second one, maybe just moving on to Europe. We've seen some attempted price hikes through Q3. We're seeing a little bit of raw material cost inflation with iron ore and coking coal. Maybe just some color in general and what you're seeing in the European market at the moment. Are you seeing any inventory build ahead of CBAM and safeguard replacements? Or are you seeing still quite a slow market? Just curious how you see prices developing in the second half. Thank you.

是的，好吧，夠公平。然後第二個，也許只是轉向歐洲。我們在第三季看到了一些價格上漲的嘗試。我們看到鐵礦石和焦煤等原料成本略有上漲。也許只是一些總體顏色以及您目前在歐洲市場上看到的。您是否看到在 CBAM 和保障措施更換之前有任何庫存建立？或者您認為市場仍然相當低迷？我只是好奇您認為下半年價格走勢如何。謝謝。

Yeah. Well, the dynamics -- I mean, we talked about the fact that demand in Europe at best has been moving sideways. We feel that. And that remains a positive aspect that inventory levels in the system that we believe they continue to be low.

是的。嗯，動態——我的意思是，我們談論的事實是歐洲的需求最多只是橫向移動。我們感受到了這一點。這仍然是一個積極的方面，我們相信系統中的庫存水準仍然很低。

What is interesting, of course, is the fact that we're going to have CBAM and whatever form pick in from gen and the promise of revised safeguards. So that creates different dynamics as well. Because if you are importing material and given the lonely times, so you're going to start to worry about some of these factors. So that is positive for the domestic meals.

當然，有趣的是，我們將擁有 CBAM 以及從 gen 中選擇的任何形式，並承諾修訂保障措施。因此這也會產生不同的動態。因為如果您正在導入材料並且考慮到孤獨的時刻，那麼您將開始擔心其中的一些因素。這對國內餐飲來說是有利的。

Right now, because of some of what activities slow. But I think we are about to see in Europe, as I said at the beginning of my opening remarks, important developments. So we are all waiting to see really the actions that the commission will pass into legislation. And it's encouraging.

目前，由於一些什麼活動進展緩慢。但我認為，正如我在開場白中所說的那樣，我們即將在歐洲看到重要的發展。因此，我們都在等待觀察委員會將採取哪些行動並將其轉化為立法。這是令人鼓舞的。

And also, the agreement between the US and Europe with regards to coming together to find ways to ring fence the industry against. The biggest issue that we face today, that is, of course, the overcapacity in China. I think that is also something that of course we don't have yet the details. But the fact that the problem is acknowledged and there is a goodwill to try to address it, that should be extremely positive for our business.

此外，美國和歐洲也達成協議，共同尋找保護該產業的方法。我們今天面臨的最大問題當然是中國的產能過剩。我認為這也是我們目前尚不清楚的細節。但事實上，人們已經認識到這個問題，並且有意願去解決它，這對我們的業務來說應該是非常有利的。

Okay, clear, thank you. I'll turn it back.

好的，明白了，謝謝。我會把它轉回去。

Dominic, JPMorgan.

多明尼克，摩根大通。

Thanks for taking my question. My questions also relate to Europe. So I just wonder if I could maybe push you a little bit more on safeguards in terms of what you would think would be acceptable for the industry as a whole. And I guess I'm also interested in the timing of the European Commission announcement with your recent indication that you're going to restart the volumes at Dunkirk. So could you just maybe give us some timing? Is that an expression of confidence in the market in the second half? And again, just really interested in a bit more detail on how you think about safeguards evolving in the months ahead.

感謝您回答我的問題。我的問題也與歐洲有關。所以我只是想知道我是否可以就您認為整個行業可以接受的保障措施向您提出更多要求。而且我想，我對歐盟委員會宣布的時間也感興趣，因為你們最近表示將重啟敦克爾克核電廠的建設。那你能給我們一些時間嗎？這是對下半年市場信心的表現嗎？再說一次，我真的很想知道您對未來幾個月保障措施如何發展的看法。

Yeah. Well, regarding safeguards, we -- and by we, I mean, the industry to Eurofair. The request is that we limit through headquarters the level of imports to a market share that is more consistent with prior needs, which is about 15% of the market share. And that is the request.

是的。嗯，關於保障措施，我們——我的意思是，我們這個行業對歐洲博覽會來說就是這樣。要求我們透過總部將進口水準限制在更符合先前需求的市場份額，即約15％的市場份額。這就是請求。

And as we know, last year in 2024, the market share of imports were as high as 27%. So that is a significant -- if implemented, it will be a significant boost to utilization rates of the steel industry in Europe. And it will allow investments to happen. So that's going to be extremely positive for the industry in Europe. And then, of course, above the quarter, then we believe that we should have also 50% of barrels during what we have under Section 232.

我們知道，去年也就是2024年，進口的市佔率高達27%。因此，如果實施，這將具有重大意義，將大大提高歐洲鋼鐵業的利用率。它將允許投資發生。這對於歐洲的工業來說將是非常有利的。當然，我們認為，在本季以上，我們在第 232 條規定下也應該擁有 50% 的桶數。

Coming to Dunkirk. Dunkirk was just a normal reline, which we completed. During the second quarter, we had built this inventor before. So you should not read into it. So we just completed the line. We brought the funnels up, and we are running again. So nothing really -- just normal business there.

來到敦克爾克。敦克爾克只是一次普通的撤退，我們完成了它。在第二季度，我們之前已經打造過這款發明家。所以你不應該去深究它。所以我們剛剛完成了這條線路。我們把漏斗抬起來，然後我們又開始運行了。所以實際上沒什麼——只是正常的業務。

Okay, and then just second question. Really helpful on the CapEx reiteration at the $4.5 billion to $5 billion. But I guess in light of the question and your comments, could you maybe just give us again an updated comment on how you're thinking about decarbonization CapEx longer term in Europe at the present moment?

好的，然後是第二個問題。對於 45 億美元至 50 億美元的資本支出重申確實很有幫助。但我想，鑑於這個問題和您的評論，您能否再次向我們提供最新評論，說明您目前對歐洲長期脫碳資本支出的看法？

Yeah, well, our expectation is that this is going to happen gradually, Dominic. This is a transition that will take the case to be completed. What we have indicated is that provided that we have the right policies in place -- and by that we mean we have CBAM. We have effective trade protection. We have competitive power prices -- then we are ready to invest. And we have indicated that we are prepared to move ahead with a significant investment at Dunkirk with a large EAF.

是的，我們期望這會逐步發生，多明尼克。這是一個過渡過程，需要完成案件。我們所表明的是，只要我們有正確的政策——我們的意思是我們有 CBAM。我們有有效的貿易保護。我們的電價具有競爭力—因此我們準備投資。我們已經表示準備對敦克爾克的大型電弧爐進行重大投資。

And that's what we would see going forward that we will progressively provided that we have the conditions to keep them investing in new EAFs. And I would remind you that -- so we are investing today, so we are spending about $300 million in [DCA] projects. It happened -- we invested this amount in 2024 and we have a similar amount this year. So we are executing or building a new EAF in Spain, Gijon.

這就是我們所看到的，只要我們有條件讓他們繼續投資新的電弧爐，我們就會逐步實現這個目標。我要提醒你們——我們今天的投資，我們在 [DCA] 項目上花費了大約 3 億美元。事實是──我們在 2024 年投資了這筆錢，今年的投資金額也差不多。因此，我們正在西班牙希洪建造或建造一個新的電弧爐。

We are investing in Sestao, so that's 1.6 million tons EAF flat business. So we are progressing. And then of course, we should not forget the renewable investments. And I think as a company, we are well placed. We have the DRI facilities. We are one of the largest producers in the world. So I think we believe that we are progressing quite well. Thank you.

我們正在對 Sestao 進行投資，因此這是 160 萬噸的 EAF 扁平材業務。所以我們正在進步。當然，我們不應該忘記再生能源投資。我認為，作為一家公司，我們處於有利地位。我們有 DRI 設施。我們是世界上最大的生產商之一。所以我認為我們相信我們的進展相當順利。謝謝。

Max, ODDO.

馬克斯，奧多。

Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So I have a first question. It's on the HBI unit in Texas. Can you shed more light on your procurement there? Because I understand a lot comes from Brazil, and it's not taxed at 50%. So are you able to shift the sourcing, or are you facing some extra costs there?

是的，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。所以我有第一個問題。它位於德克薩斯州的 HBI 單位。能否詳細介紹一下那裡的採購狀況？因為我知道很多產品來自巴西，而且稅率不是 50%。那麼，您能夠轉移採購嗎？或者您面臨一些額外的成本？

Thanks so much. Well, we have the flexibility marks because we can also bring materials from our own mines in Canada. But I believe that -- to be honest, I believe that it has been included on the list of exemptions. But I have to double check to be 100% sure. But that was my reading. It came out yesterday. So I need to confirm that, but I think that was -- because pig iron is now for sure not. And I think I don't know, it's also excluded. Dan, unless you have some more.

非常感謝。嗯，我們有靈活性標誌，因為我們也可以從加拿大自己的礦場帶來材料。但我相信——說實話，我相信它已被列入豁免名單。但我必須再檢查一次才能 100% 確定。但這就是我的解讀。它昨天就出來了。所以我需要確認這一點，但我認為——因為生鐵現在肯定不是。而且我覺得我不知道，這也被排除了。丹，除非你還有更多。

No, you're -- that's the case, and we know. But I think also these things can change. So it's important that your first point to have that flexibility, that should something change that we can source from a different mind within our own system. And that would be Canada.

不，你——情況就是這樣，我們知道。但我認為這些事情也可能會改變。因此，首先要有靈活性，如果發生某些變化，我們可以從我們自己的系統內的不同想法中獲取信息，這一點很重要。那就是加拿大。

Okay, so that's clear. So one question is on M&A. So Cleveland-Cliffs has put up a for sale sign in its latest results go. So I know you don't like to comment on specific targets. But how are you thinking of further expansion in the US, notably to address the mismatch you currently have in terms of organic versus M&A.

好的，很清楚了。其中一個問題是關於併購的。因此，克利夫蘭克利夫斯公司在最新業績報告中貼出了待售標誌。所以我知道你不喜歡對具體目標發表評論。但是，您如何考慮在美國進一步擴張，特別是解決目前在有機成長與併購方面的不匹配問題。

Max, yes, you're right. So we don't really comment on M&A. I would just say that US is and has always been a very important market for the company. And as you can see, our investments covered the new electrical steel plant that we are investing.

馬克斯，是的，你是對的。所以我們實際上不評論併購。我只想說，美國現在是、一直都是該公司非常重要的市場。如您所見，我們的投資涵蓋了我們正在投資的新電工鋼廠。

So we do have the ambition to keep growing in the United States, and we have plans in place and being developed. But more specifically on M&A, I'm not going to be able to comment.

因此，我們確實有在美國繼續發展的雄心，並且我們已經制定並正在製定計劃。但對於併購方面的具體問題，我無法發表評論。

Okay, fair enough. And just the last one, it's on India. So you're flagging again your ambitions there to grow even more, notably for a new greenfield facility. But at the same time, we are seeing prices in India quite depressed at just a few tens of dollars of premium to the Chinese market. So wouldn't it be wiser to wait to have, I mean, a better trade defense system there to potentially start new investments. Because clearly, the 12% of the tariffs we've had for a few months are not enough.

好吧，夠公平。最後一個是關於印度的。因此，您再次表達了進一步發展的雄心，特別是建立一個新的綠地設施。但同時，我們看到印度的價格相當低迷，只比中國市場高出幾十美元。因此，等待那裡建立起更好的貿易防禦體系，然後再開始新的投資，不是更明智嗎？因為顯然，我們幾個月來徵收的12%的關稅是不夠的。

Yeah, I think the industry would agree with you. And I think that these are mobilized. But look, I mean, we have to look beyond this. And structurally, the Indian market is very attractive. So it's highly concentrated. It's a market that is growing 7%, 8% every year.

是的，我認為業界會同意你的看法。我認為這些都是被動員起來的。但是，我的意思是，我們必須看得更遠一些。從結構上看，印度市場非常有吸引力。所以它的濃度很高。這個市場每年以 7% 到 8% 的速度成長。

And if you want to continue to be relevant in the market and you want to keep your markets and increase your markets, so you have to grow with the market. And as you can see in our results this quarter as well, the results already doubled, so back to 200 million plus. You can argue that yet not enough, but it's -- and we have not yet seen the benefits of some of these investments that we talked about the downstream.

如果你想繼續在市場上保持競爭力，如果你想維持並擴大你的市場，那麼你必須與市場一起成長。正如您在本季度的業績中所看到的，業績已經翻了一番，回到了 2 億多。您可能會說這還不夠，但是——我們還沒有看到我們在下游談到的一些投資帶來的好處。

So our automotive complex is going to be commissioned part of it now and towards the second half of the year. So we'll continue to improve the mix of products that we're going to be able to offer in the Indian market. So we remain very excited about the opportunities provided by the Indian market. And right now, the focus is on completing the expansion in [Azera], and of course, prepare the ground for future expansion. As you know, this is a long process in India. And it's important that we continue to work so that we can, when the moment is right, to move forward.

因此，我們的汽車綜合體的一部分現在和下半年將投入使用。因此，我們將繼續改善我們能夠在印度市場提供的產品組合。因此，我們對印度市場提供的機會感到非常興奮。而現在，重點是完成[Azera]的擴展，當然，也為未來的擴展做好準備。如你所知，這在印度是一個漫長的過程。重要的是，我們要繼續努力，以便在適當的時候能夠繼續前進。

Okay, very clear. Thank you.

好的，非常清楚。謝謝。

Andy, UBS.

瑞銀的安迪。

Thank you. Can you hear me okay?

謝謝。你聽見我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Cool. Excellent. To follow up on M&A, no specific targets. But obviously, the net debt after the account that's now back above $8 billion, used to sort of talk about a $7 billion target, albeit, obviously, the business is very different now. I mean, how are you thinking about leverage more broadly around the potential for further M&A?

涼爽的。出色的。跟進併購事宜，無具體目標。但顯然，帳戶後的淨債務現在又回到了 80 億美元以上，過去我們談論的是 70 億美元的目標，儘管顯然現在的業務已經大不相同。我的意思是，您如何更廣泛地考慮進一步併購的潛力？

I mean, does this rule out large scale M&A things like Vallourec? Or I mean -- the question, I mean, being specific. I mean, are you thinking you can do something large? Or are we talking like potentially small incremental stuff from here or just focusing on some of the organic growth projects which are obviously pretty numerous in your portfolio? How do you think about that more big picture?

我的意思是，這是否排除了像 Vallourec 這樣的大規模併購？或者我的意思是──這個問題，我的意思是，要具體。我的意思是，你認為你可以做一件大事嗎？或者我們談論的是從這裡開始的潛在小增量項目，或者只是關註一些顯然在您的投資組合中相當多的有機增長項目？您如何看待這個更宏觀的圖像？

Yeah. Well, I can say that we have a good pipeline of projects that we can execute organically. So that has been the focus, it continues to be the focus. And specifically, on -- and I should also say that our message on Vallourec remains the same. So we are not -- we are happy with the performance of the company, we are happy with our state, we have no intention there to increase it.

是的。好吧，我可以說我們擁有一系列可以有機執行的專案。所以這一直是焦點，並且將繼續是焦點。具體來說，我還應該說，我們對瓦盧雷克 (Vallourec) 的訊息保持不變。所以我們不是——我們對公司的業績感到滿意，我們對我們的狀態感到滿意，我們無意增加它。

When it comes to the debt, $8 billion -- so first of all, I think we feel very comfortable. As I'm sure you have seen we were just upgraded by S&P, the triple B flat. So showing the progress or the progress that we have been discussing, acknowledged by the rating agencies as well.

說到債務，80億美元——首先，我認為我們感覺很舒服。我相信您已經看到，我們剛剛被標準普爾評為 3B 級。因此，我們一直在討論的進展也得到了評級機構的認可。

And we should not forget that with this investments, M&A, we are adding significant amount of extra EBITDA to the business. You see in our bridge, in our debt, so this year $700 million of extra EBITDA coming from projects, but also M&A. So that's how we are looking at so very comfortable with the capital structure of the company.

我們不應忘記，透過這些投資和併購，我們為業務增加了大量額外的 EBITDA。您可以看到，在我們的橋樑和債務中，今年有 7 億美元的額外 EBITDA 來自項目以及併購。這就是我們對公司資本結構非常滿意的看法。

Okay. And just one other follow up on the settlement that you put into one of the one-offs for the EBIT in the quarter, this [butterranin]. What -- when do you actually expect to make sort of cash payments on that settlement and how's that phased?

好的。關於您在本季度息稅前利潤一次性支出的結算，還有一件事需要跟進。[黃油苷]您實際上預計何時以現金支付該和解金，以及支付流程是如何分階段進行的？

It will happen over three years. And it's almost -- so that is one down payment and then -- so divide it by 4, you have 1 on signing and 3 other payments in 3 years. So it's going to happen over 3 years.

這將需要三年的時間。這差不多是 - 所以這是一筆首付，然後 - 除以 4，簽約時支付 1 筆，3 年內支付 3 筆其他款項。所以這將需要三年的時間。

Okay, and that's in line with the EBIT loss you booked on that settlement in cash.

好的，這與您以現金結算的息稅前利潤損失一致。

EBITDA loss. Well, actually, if you look at the footnote, you're going to see that the amount is 500. And then what you see in our P&L is the difference because we had already some provisions. So that's why you see a delta between the P&L and the footnote. But that's about $100 million. So the settlement is $500 million.

EBITDA 損失。嗯，實際上，如果你看一下腳註，你會看到金額是 500。然後，您在我們的損益表中看到的是差額，因為我們已經有一些準備。這就是為什麼您會看到損益表和腳註之間存在差異。但那大約是1億美元。因此和解金額為5億美元。

Okay. That's clear.

好的。這很清楚。

Bastian, Deutsche Bank.

巴斯蒂安，德意志銀行。

Yeah, hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is actually on your project pipeline. I saw in the footnotes that there are some projects which are delayed. And I was wondering if this purely due to permitting? Is this also a response to the current environment? And are there any further shifts or delays which you're currently at least looking at? Maybe you could also give us an update on the [PKDA] cadence. I think the chart here and the presentation deck seems to be changed, so there must be something which is compensating for the delay there. That's my first one.

是的，嘿，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個實際上是在你的專案管道上。我在腳註中看到有些項目被推遲了。我想知道這是否純粹是因為允許？這是否也是對當前環境的一種回應？您目前是否正在考慮任何進一步的轉變或延遲？也許您也可以向我們提供有關 [PKDA] 節奏的最新消息。我認為這裡的圖表和演示文稿似乎有所改變，所以一定有一些東西可以彌補那裡的延遲。這是我的第一個。

So basically, we have Mardyck in north of France. That's the electrical steel project there, Bastian. And as we write there, it's -- every time you have a brown field, you always -- you face. There is that you can -- you may find out something that you could not have anticipated. That's one of the reasons.

基本上，我們在法國北部有 Mardyck。那是那裡的電工鋼項目，巴斯蒂安。正如我們在那裡寫的，每當你面對棕色的田野時，你總是會面臨這種情況。您可能會發現一些您無法預料的事情。這是原因之一。

And then in Mardyck, when one of the mines (inaudible) so it was the delay. It's primarily because of license that delayed some of the moving of the equipment. But these are not very significant movements, I would say. They are quite minor. So that's why you don't really see a significant, any important change in the EBITDA bridge coming from projects.

然後在 Mardyck，當其中一個地雷（聽不清楚）時，就出現了延誤。主要是因為許可證問題導致部分設備的移動延遲。但我想說，這些都不是非常重要的措施。它們相當小。所以這就是為什麼你實際上看不到來自專案的 EBITDA 橋樑發生任何重大變化的原因。

Dan, anything about that?

丹，有什麼事嗎？

No, I would only reinforce those points, and we know. So yeah, no further additional comments.

不，我只會強調這些觀點，我們知道。是的，沒有進一步的補充評論。

And no other projects which you're currently looking to move just given the current economic environment, I guess.

我想，考慮到當前的經濟環境，您目前沒有考慮轉移其他項目。

No, not at all. And I think that's a good point because despite the challenging market conditions, we feel that the company is very well positioned to move forward with the projects. And as we talked about this year, we're going to be completing a number of projects.

不，一點也不。我認為這是一個很好的觀點，因為儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，但我們認為公司完全有能力推進這些專案。正如我們今年所討論的，我們將完成一些項目。

And then, as you can see then, we're going to have another significant pick up in EBITDA also in 2026. So we want just to keep that momentum. And so on the contrary, you should see us announcing more projects as we talked about in our Q4 results.

然後，正如您所看到的，我們的 EBITDA 在 2026 年還將再次大幅成長。所以我們只想保持這種勢頭。相反，您應該會看到我們宣布更多項目，正如我們在第四季度業績中所討論的那樣。

Okay, got you. Then my second one is on your Brazilian slab strategy. I guess, a few years ago, you obviously bought CSP, which is basically a slab business -- we still have Sierra Victoria, which is basically long slabs used to supply both I guess into Calvert or into the US and North American markets. Now, given that there is obviously a pretty long list of capacity projects in the US at the moment, I mean, you've just built like the 1.5 million ton a year if you're talking about the second one. What's going to be your strategy here for the Brazilian slab capacity where you're still long?

好的，明白了。那我的第二個問題就是你的巴西平板策略。我想，幾年前，您顯然收購了 CSP，這基本上是一個板材業務 - 我們仍然擁有 Sierra Victoria，它基本上是長板材，我想用於供應卡爾弗特或美國和北美市場。現在，鑑於美國目前顯然有相當長的產能項目清單，我的意思是，如果你談論的是第二個項目，那麼你剛剛建成的產能是每年 150 萬噸。對於您仍然持有的巴西板坯產能，您的策略是什麼？

Yeah, well, I think that's a good question, Bastian. And we are very well positioned in the Brazilian market. So first of all, I think it's important to acknowledge that Brazil is growing, right? So the flat demand is growing, and it will continue to grow. And we are well positioned because we have the crude steel capacity.

是的，嗯，我認為這是個好問題，巴斯蒂安。我們在巴西市場佔有非常有利的地位。所以首先，我認為我們必須承認巴西正在發展，對嗎？因此，平板需求正在成長，而且還會繼續成長。由於我們擁有粗鋼產能，因此我們處於有利地位。

So we don't need to invest in developing or building a new upstream. So we have. And if you look at some of our competitors there, that's the real differential that we have to grow with that market. So that's one of the possibilities that we have. And we should not forget also that [Bain and Turan], they produce some of the highest quality slabs in the world. But you're not going to find that quality of slab everywhere. So we feel that we're going to be always in a position to market the volumes that we have from there.

所以我們不需要投資開發或建造新的上游。確實如此。如果你看看我們在那裡的一些競爭對手，你會發現，這就是我們必須與該市場共同成長的真正差異。這就是我們所擁有的可能性之一。我們也不應該忘記，[Bain and Turan] 他們生產了世界上最高品質的板材。但你不會在任何地方都找到這種品質的板材。因此，我們認為我們將始終能夠銷售我們擁有的產量。

Okay, very clear. Thanks so much.

好的，非常清楚。非常感謝。

Tristan, BNP Exane.

特里斯坦（Tristan），法國國家銀行審查部門。

Yes, hi, thank you for squeezing me in. Just to the first one on China, what is your take on the recent official commentary on potential capacity restructuring? I mean, do you believe significant capacity cuts like in 2015, 2016 are really on the table? And also, you kept the stable demand outlook for the year in China despite what I think was pretty weak H1. So what are you baking in H2? And why would you have a more constructive set up for H2? That'd be my first question.

是的，嗨，謝謝你邀請我。第一個問題是關於中國的，您對最近官方關於潛在產能重組的評論有何看法？我的意思是，您是否相信像 2015 年、2016 年那樣大幅削減產能真的有可能實現？儘管我認為上半年中國經濟表現相當疲軟，但你們仍維持了今年中國市場穩定的需求前景。那你在 H2 中烘烤什麼？為什麼您要為 H2 制定更具建設性的設定？這是我的第一個問題。

Do you want to take that one, Daniel?

丹尼爾，你想拿那個嗎？

Yeah, absolutely. So I think relative to our -- it's all about relative to our expectations at the beginning of the year. So yes, in China, they're obviously seeing some export impacts from the reciprocal tariff's environment. But they are finding opportunities, obviously, new export opportunities.

是的，絕對是如此。所以我認為相對於我們——這都是相對於我們年初的預期而言的。所以是的，在中國，他們顯然看到了互惠關稅環境對出口的一些影響。但顯然他們正在尋找機會，新的出口機會。

And then domestically, demand is being supported by the infrastructure spend and the efforts to stimulate domestic consumption. So that's the reason why we've not significantly changed our projections for Chinese demand relative to what we'd published back in February. I think on the prospect of capacity reform, obviously, this is something that we have been championing, something that it's very obvious that this needs to occur.

從國內來看，基礎設施支出和刺激國內消費的努力正在支持需求。這就是為什麼我們沒有對中國需求的預測相對於我們二月發布的預測做出重大改變的原因。我認為，就產能改革的前景而言，顯然這是我們一直倡導的，而且顯然需要這樣做。

China has a capacity imbalance. It's leading to very depressed, profitability within the domestic industry. It's leading to aggressive exports at very low pricing. And as we talked about in previous questions, it is a significant source of unfair competition for the rest of the global industry. And so reform needs to happen.

中國產能不平衡。這導致國內產業的獲利能力非常低迷。這導致以極低的價格進行大規模出口。正如我們在之前的問題中討論過的，它是全球其他行業不公平競爭的一個重要根源。因此需要進行改革。

And your question obviously is, will it happen and over what sort of time frame. And all the statements that we've read over the last couple of months would give you encouragement that things will improve. I think if you look at the recent production statistics, it would suggest that things can improve. However, exports do remain very elevated. And so I think the only thing that we can really be -- really looking out for is this ring fencing that Genuino talked about previously.

你的疑問顯然是，這是否會發生，以及在什麼樣的時間範圍內發生。我們在過去幾個月讀到的所有聲明都會給你鼓勵，事情會好轉。我認為如果你看看最近的生產統計數據，你會發現情況有所改善。然而，出口量確實仍然很高。因此我認為我們唯一真正需要注意的是 Genuino 之前談到的這個圍欄。

That's what's required. We can't assume that China will reform its industry in due course. And therefore, the other regions need to appropriately ring fence their industries to make sure that they're not damaged by that excess capacity and unfair trade.

這就是所需要的。我們不能想當然地認為中國會適時改革其產業。因此，其他地區需要適當保護其產業，以確保其不會受到產能過剩和不公平貿易的損害。

All right. That's helpful. Thank you. And my second question is just going back to the key action plan. There's been a specific proposal to cut quotas by 40%, 50%. Do you think there's a real probability that the European Commission will take such action and how confident are you? Basically, what is different this time in your conversation with the commission. For instance, if we look at it, I mean, the fact that Germany was not part of the recent proposal could indicate that there is not a united front from all the member states. So any color there, that'd be great.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝。我的第二個問題是回到關鍵行動計畫。有具體提議將配額削減 40% 或 50%。您認為歐盟委員會真的有可能採取此類行動嗎？您有多大信心？基本上，這次您與委員會的談話有什麼不同。例如，如果我們看一下，我的意思是，德國沒有參與最近的提案這一事實可能表明所有成員國之間並沒有形成統一戰線。所以無論什麼顏色，都很好。

Tristan, I think we can only wait and see finally what comes out. Of course, we are engaged through the association. So we are in very close dialogue with the authorities, governments, the commission, encouraging. And France published recently a position paper in which they also defend these levels of quotas. But I agree with you, in Europe, it's challenging. That's why we have to really wait and see and see what finally gets converted into legislation. And I guess we will know very soon. I mean, the promise is to deliver the new proposal after summer. So I think our -- we should know relatively soon.

特里斯坦，我想我們只能拭目以待，看看最終結果如何。當然，我們是透過協會參與的。因此，我們與當局、政府、委員會保持密切的對話，並給予鼓勵。法國最近發表了一份立場文件，也為這些配額水準辯護。但我同意你的看法，在歐洲，這很有挑戰性。這就是為什麼我們必須拭目以待，看看最終結果會如何轉化為立法。我想我們很快就會知道。我的意思是，承諾在夏天之後提出新的提案。所以我認為我們應該很快就能知道。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Matt, Goldman Sachs.

馬特，高盛。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in there. My first question is just on India, encouraging to see those tariffs in April possibly contribute to your margins. And I have to say the quarter after quarter uplift is quite impressive. So my question is just what was the exit margin at the end of the quarter on a per ton basis, if you happen to have that to hand? And how should we think about it to go forward in light of both the tariffs and commissioning of the downstream value-added products?

嘿，下午好。謝謝你把我擠進去。我的第一個問題是關於印度的，很高興看到四月的關稅可能會對你們的利潤率有所貢獻。我必須說，季度復一季的成長相當令人印象深刻。所以我的問題是，如果您手邊有的話，本季末每噸的退出利潤率是多少？那麼從下游加值產品的關稅和投產兩個角度，我們該如何考慮推進呢？

So I'm not sure that I got the first part of the question, Daniel.

所以我不確定我是否理解了問題的第一部分，丹尼爾。

(multiple speakers)

（多位發言者）

Would you like me to repeat? Yeah, sure. Okay, just my question was just the margins that you've seen, the course from quarter uplift in India has been quite impressive. So the question is just what was your exit margin at the end of June? And then how should we think about the go forward just given the effect of the tariff, but also the commissioning of the downstream?

你想讓我再說一次嗎？是的，當然。好的，我的問題是，您所看到的利潤率，印度季度成長的進程相當令人印象深刻。所以問題是，六月底你的退出利潤率是多少？那麼，考慮到關稅的影響以及下游的調試，我們應該如何考慮未來的發展？

Perhaps I talked about the moving parts there in a little bit more detail. So moving forward, I mean, for quarter three, and I think it will address your first part of your question. So our expectation is for profitability to be largely stable compared to what you see in quarter two, which is -- which I think addresses some of your points stable.

也許我更詳細地談論了那裡的活動部件。因此，我的意思是，對於第三季度，我認為它將回答您問題的第一部分。因此，我們預計盈利能力與第二季度相比將基本保持穩定，我認為這解決了您的一些觀點。

And the downstream really -- I mean, of course, there will be a good contribution in terms of extra margin that we're going to be able to print. But more importantly, we'll open up a new avenue in terms of product offering in the Indian market. So both us and Nippon, as you know, [Auto] is a franchise of our companies. And it's a market that we're going to be able then to address strongly once we complete this investments.

而下游確實——我的意思是，當然，我們將能夠列印額外的利潤，這將是一個很好的貢獻。但更重要的是，我們將在印度市場的產品供應上開闢一條新途徑。所以，如您所知，我們和 Nippon 的 [Auto] 都是我們公司的特許經營權。一旦我們完成這些投資，我們就能大力開拓這個市場。

And as you know, I mean, these are profitable products. So I will not get into specifics, but just to give you a favor the importance of completing these projects for the future of the profitability of [MNSI]. Daniel, if you have anything to add because you were there recently as well.

如你所知，這些都是有利可圖的產品。因此，我不會講細節，只是為了讓你明白完成這些項目對於未來獲利的重要性。[MNSI]。丹尼爾，如果您最近也去過那裡，您是否還有什麼要補充的？

Yeah, absolutely, Genuino. So it is an important part. When we took investors to India to see the expansion of the capacity and the new value-added capacity that you were just talking about, I think this is all a very important part of the transformation of the business. So as we go from the current capacity, as we add the two new blast furnaces, as we have the coke capacity, we add these new finishing capabilities, higher the value product, opportunities, and this will really transform the profitability of our business in India.

是的，絕對是，Genuino。所以這是一個重要的部分。當我們帶投資者去印度看到產能擴張和您剛才談到的新增值產能時，我認為這都是業務轉型的一個非常重要的部分。因此，隨著我們從現有產能出發，隨著我們增加兩座新高爐，隨著我們擁有焦炭產能，我們增加了這些新的精加工能力，更高的產品價值和機會，這將真正改變我們在印度業務的盈利能力。

So you shouldn't think that the doubling of capacity will double profitability. Really, you should think that the doubling of capacity underway will add 150% to the normalized profitability. And a lot of that additional profitability will come through this higher added value product mix.

因此，你不應該認為產能翻倍就能讓獲利能力翻倍。實際上，您應該認為，在途產能翻倍將使正常獲利能力增加 150%。而大部分的額外獲利將來自於這種更高附加價值的產品組合。

That's helpful. Thank you. And my last question is just on cover. Congrats on the first slab. How should we think about the ramp up from here to the 1.5 million tons by mid 2026. And if you can give any color sort of on the margin uplift alongside that ramp up. Thanks.

這很有幫助。謝謝。我的最後一個問題與封面有關。恭喜您取得第一塊板。我們應該如何考慮從現在開始到 2026 年中期實現 150 萬噸的成長？如果您能在該上升過程中提供任何顏色類型的利潤提升。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, we talked about, I think, it was in the previous quarter, Matt. So it should take us about a year to get to full capacity there. So we had a couple of weeks of delays to have the first flat gusted. So our expectations to get to the end of the year, with a run rate in the range of 60%. And then from there, we will continue to ramp up. So by the end of the second quarter next year, we should be at full capacity.

是的，我的意思是，我們討論過，我想，那是在上一季度，馬特。因此我們需要大約一年的時間才能達到滿載狀態。因此，我們耽擱了幾週才將第一間公寓搬走。因此，我們預計到今年年底，運行率將達到 60% 左右。然後從那裡開始，我們將繼續加強。因此到明年第二季末，我們應該就能滿載運轉了。

Great. And then what we -- perhaps just to add in terms of the margin profitability. If you think about the cost of the EAF, it should be very similar to the Brazil slab cost. So when you think about the impact on our business, that should be a pretty good guide for you.

偉大的。然後我們——也許只是在利潤獲利能力方面進行補充。如果你考慮電弧爐的成本，它應該與巴西板坯成本非常相似。因此，當您考慮對我們業務的影響時，這對您來說應該是一個很好的指導。

So that was our last question, Genuino. So back to you.

這是我們的最後一個問題，Genuino。那麼回到你身上。

Okay. Thank you, everyone. Before we close, I want to reiterate my messages from the beginning of the call. First and foremost, our results continue to show structural improvements, and this is expected to continue.

好的。謝謝大家。在我們結束之前，我想重申我在通話開始時所表達的訊息。首先，我們的業績持續顯示出結構性改善，預計這種情況將會持續下去。

Secondly, our North America franchise is well positioned. We now own 100% of Calvert, the best steel facility in the US. This is the cornerstone of our franchise and the new EAF, together with the new slab supply agreement, to ensure we meet melted and pool requirements. Third, we are transitioning to a more favorable market structure in Europe.

其次，我們的北美特許經營權定位良好。我們現在擁有美國最好的鋼鐵廠 Calvert 的 100% 股權。這是我們特許經營和新 EAF 的基石，與新的板坯供應協議一起，確保我們滿足熔煉和熔池要求。第三，我們正在向更有利的歐洲市場結構轉型。

If the European Commission delivers a new trade defense mechanism and an effective [Siban], then our business can flourish. And ArcelorMittal is well positioned to capitalize on the opportunities created by defense and infrastructure investments. And finally, to repeat what I have said in recent calls, returning capital to shareholders at the bottom of the cycle while continue to invest in growth is clear evidence of the progress that ArcelorMittal has made and demonstrates that our company can deliver value through all aspects of these two sides.

如果歐盟委員會能夠推出新的貿易保護機制和有效的[Siban]，那麼我們的業務就能蓬勃發展。安賽樂米塔爾已做好準備，充分利用國防和基礎設施投資所創造的機會。最後，重複我在最近幾次電話會議中所說的話，在周期底部向股東返還資本，同時繼續投資於增長，這清楚地證明了安賽樂米塔爾所取得的進步，並表明我們公司可以通過這兩方面的各個方面實現價值。

With that said, I will close today's call. And if you need anything further, please do reach out to Daniel and his team. I look forward to speaking with you soon. Wish you all a happy summer. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much.

話雖如此，今天的電話會議就此結束。如果您需要任何其他協助，請聯絡 Daniel 和他的團隊。我期待很快與您交談。祝大家夏天快樂。保持安全並確保周圍人的安全。非常感謝。