微軟 (MSFT) 2010 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Microsoft first quarter fiscal year 2010 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Microsoft 2010 財年第一季度財報電話會議。

At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

(Operator instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的電話正在錄音。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

我現在想把電話轉給先生。

Bill Koefoed, General Manager, Investor Relations.

投資者關係部總經理 Bill Koefoed。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Barb, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning.

謝謝你，Barb，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。

As you know, yesterday was a significant day in Microsoft with the launch of Windows 7 and Windows Server 2008 R2.

如您所知，隨著 Windows 7 和 Windows Server 2008 R2 的發布，昨天是微軟重要的一天。

We hope that you were able to see and participate in some of the exciting launch activities held around the globe.

我們希望您能夠看到並參與一些在全球範圍內舉辦的激動人心的發布活動。

As usual, here with me are Chris Liddell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.

像往常一樣，和我在一起的是高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris Liddell； Frank Brod，公司副總裁兼首席會計官；和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。

Today, Chris will start with takeaways from the first quarter of our 2010 fiscal year.

今天，克里斯將從我們 2010 財年第一季度的總結開始。

Then I'll get into the details of the quarter before handing it back to Chris, who will discuss our business outlook.

然後我將詳細介紹本季度的細節，然後將其交還給克里斯，克里斯將討論我們的業務前景。

After that we'll take your questions.

之後，我們將回答您的問題。

We filed our Form 10-Q this morning.

我們今天早上提交了表格 10-Q。

In addition, we posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks as well as provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，我們發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在遵循我們準備好的評論的流程，並提供 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務措施之間差異的對賬。

You can find these documents at the investor relations website at Microsoft.com/MSFT.

您可以在投資者關係網站 Microsoft.com/MSFT 上找到這些文件。

Today's call will be webcast live and recorded.

今天的電話將進行網絡直播和錄製。

If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, any future use of the recording and in the transcript which will be posted on our website.

如果您提出問題，它將包含在我們的實時傳輸、錄音的任何未來使用以及將發佈在我們網站上的成績單中。

You can replay the call and view the transcript at the Microsoft investor relations website until October 23, 2010.

在 2010 年 10 月 23 日之前，您可以在 Microsoft 投資者關係網站上重播電話並查看記錄。

This call is protected by copyright law and international treaties.

此電話受版權法和國際條約保護。

Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this call or any portion of it without the express written permission of Microsoft may result in civil and criminal penalties.

未經 Microsoft 明確書面許可，未經授權擅自複製或分發此通話或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。

We will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。

These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Actual results could differ materially because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release and the comments made during this conference call and in the risk factors section of our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

由於今天的收益新聞稿中討論的因素以及本次電話會議期間以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表、10-Q 表和其他報告和文件的風險因素部分中的評論，實際結果可能存在重大差異.

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I want to point out one last thing before I turn the call over to Chris.

在我把電話轉給克里斯之前，我想指出最後一件事。

With the recent move of Windows Live, we changed the name of Client division to the Windows and Windows Live division.

隨著最近 Windows Live 的遷移，我們將客戶端部門的名稱更改為 Windows 和 Windows Live 部門。

During the call we will refer to this business as the Windows division.

在電話會議中，我們將此業務稱為 Windows 部門。

Okay, Chris, the call is yours.

好的，克里斯，電話是你的。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。

The results for the first quarter were strong, particularly on an adjusted earnings per share basis, primarily as a result of two main factors -- consumer demand for our Windows and Xbox products combined with excellent cost controls.

第一季度業績強勁，特別是在調整後的每股收益基礎上，主要是由於兩個主要因素——消費者對我們的 Windows 和 Xbox 產品的需求以及出色的成本控制。

This result was achieved despite relative weakness in business spending, which has yet to see a broad-based recovery.

儘管商業支出相對疲軟，但仍實現了這一結果，而商業支出尚未出現廣泛的複蘇。

Having said that, it is showing signs of stabilization at lower levels.

話雖如此，它在較低水平上顯示出穩定的跡象。

And, while it is too early to tell, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 may well have been the bottom of the economic reset.

而且，雖然現在下結論還為時過早，但 2009 財年第四季度很可能是經濟重置的底部。

Looking at the broader picture, at our final analyst meeting in July, I articulated our approach to what we described as the new normal around five major shareholder value strategies -- maximizing cash flow, streamlining our cost structure, driving operational excellence, capturing market share and investing in innovation.

縱觀全局，在 7 月的最後一次分析師會議上，我闡述了我們圍繞五個主要股東價值戰略所描述的新常態的方法——最大化現金流、精簡我們的成本結構、推動卓越運營、佔領市場份額並投資於創新。

I'm very happy with our progress of each of those five strategies during the quarter.

我對本季度這五項戰略中每一項的進展感到非常滿意。

For example, operating cash flow was $6.1 billion in the quarter, which is a terrific result, given the economic conditions are still challenging.

例如，本季度的經營現金流為 61 億美元，這是一個了不起的結果，因為經濟狀況仍然充滿挑戰。

We resumed our share buyback program with 1.4 billion of shares repurchased in the quarter, retained our $0.13 a share dividend and built our net cash and investment balance to over $33 billion.

我們在本季度恢復了股票回購計劃，回購了 14 億股股票，保留了每股 0.13 美元的股息，並將我們的淨現金和投資餘額增加到超過 330 億美元。

During the quarter we also continued to focus on our long-term cost structure.

在本季度，我們還繼續關注我們的長期成本結構。

We realized a 10% decrease in operating expenses over the prior year, due to a lower number of people employed, lower cost per person, lower vendor spend and lower marketing costs.

由於就業人數減少、人均成本降低、供應商支出減少和營銷成本降低，我們實現了運營費用比上一年減少了 10%。

Our headcount at the end of the quarter was 4% lower than the same time last year, the first time that a reduction of that significance has been achieved in the Company's history.

我們在本季度末的員工人數比去年同期減少了 4%，這是公司歷史上首次實現這一重要性的減少。

Over the last three months we have continued to show great operational excellence with not only the successful launch of Windows 7 but also the Windows Server 2008 R2 global launch yesterday and the recent release to manufacturing of Exchange 2010.

在過去三個月中，我們繼續展示卓越的運營，不僅成功推出了 Windows 7，而且昨天還推出了 Windows Server 2008 R2 全球發布以及最近發布的 Exchange 2010。

And market share, while it's very early days, we are very happy with the progress of our search engine, Bing, and other notable accomplishments during the quarter include the continued gains in Windows Server, System Center Management Tools and Xbox LIVE.

和市場份額，雖然現在還很早，但我們對我們的搜索引擎、必應和本季度其他顯著成就的進展感到非常滿意，包括 Windows Server、系統中心管理工具和 Xbox LIVE 的持續增長。

Despite the focused on costs, we have continued to invest in innovation, and this year, to name a few, we will release Windows Azure, SharePoint 2010, SQL Server 2008 R2, Office 2010, and continue to deliver innovations in Bing.

儘管關注成本，我們仍繼續投資於創新，今年，僅舉幾例，我們將發布 Windows Azure、SharePoint 2010、SQL Server 2008 R2、Office 2010，並繼續在 Bing 中提供創新。

So, in summary, I'm very happy with both the short-term quarterly financial results and our progress on the factors that we believe will drive long-term success.

因此，總而言之，我對短期季度財務業績以及我們在我們認為將推動長期成功的因素方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。

So with that, I'll provide more color on our outlook after Bill gives you some additional detail on the quarter.

因此，在比爾向您提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息後，我將為我們的前景提供更多色彩。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

I'll start with the Company's overview and then go through revenue performance for each of our business units.

我將從公司的概述開始，然後介紹我們每個業務部門的收入表現。

All of my comments are adjusted for the $1.5 billion of revenue deferred this quarter from both the Windows 7 Upgrade program and Windows 7 licenses sold in advance of general availability.

我的所有評論都針對本季度因 Windows 7 升級計劃和在全面上市之前出售的 Windows 7 許可證而推遲的 15 億美元收入進行了調整。

Keep in mind that this is a non-GAAP view and all GAAP/non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our slide deck.

請記住，這是一個非 GAAP 視圖，所有 GAAP/非 GAAP 對賬都可以在我們的幻燈片中找到。

All growth comparisons relate to the corresponding quarter of last year, unless I specify otherwise.

除非我另有說明，否則所有增長比較都與去年的相應季度有關。

Overall, revenue was down 4% because of continued weakness in global demand, especially in the Business segment.

總體而言，由於全球需求持續疲軟，尤其是在業務領域，收入下降了 4%。

This was a positive result considering the macroeconomic environment, and as Chris noted earlier, we were pleased with the strength of consumer demand, particularly for our Windows and Xbox products.

考慮到宏觀經濟環境，這是一個積極的結果，正如 Chris 之前指出的，我們對消費者需求的強勁感到滿意，特別是對我們的 Windows 和 Xbox 產品。

Foreign exchange headwinds had a $233 million, or about a 2 percentage point impact in the first quarter.

外匯逆風在第一季度產生了 2.33 億美元，或約 2 個百分點的影響。

This quarter our product billing mix was roughly 35% annuity, 30% OEM and 25% license-only, with the balance coming from our other businesses.

本季度，我們的產品計費組合約為 35% 的年金、30% 的 OEM 和 25% 的許可，其餘來自我們的其他業務。

Enterprise agreement renewals were in line with our expectations, and our multi-year annuity revenue grew low-single digits, in line with our outlook last quarter.

企業協議續簽符合我們的預期，我們的多年年金收入增長低個位數，與我們上個季度的展望一致。

In terms of geographic mix, revenue in the US, driven primarily by consumer demand, was relatively strong compared with other regions.

在地域組合方面，主要受消費者需求推動的美國收入與其他地區相比相對強勁。

Unearned revenue, again adjusted for Windows 7, was down $13 billion, down slightly from last year.

再次針對 Windows 7 進行調整的未實現收入減少了 130 億美元，比去年略有下降。

Our contracted/not billed balance was over $13 billion, in line with last year.

我們的合同/未計費餘額超過 130 億美元，與去年持平。

Now let's move onto our thoughts on the PC market.

現在讓我們談談對 PC 市場的看法。

PC hardware demand improved significantly.

PC硬件需求明顯改善。

On a sequential basis, we estimate the PC market was up mid-teens.

在連續的基礎上，我們估計個人電腦市場上漲了十幾歲。

Year over year we estimate the market grew 0% to 2%.

我們估計市場同比增長 0% 至 2%。

We estimate consumer PCs grew mid-single digits from last year, primarily due to growth in netbooks.

我們估計消費個人電腦比去年增長了中個位數，這主要是由於上網本的增長。

This quarter netbooks represented about 12% of the total PC market, similar to the mix last quarter, and represented significant growth over the prior year.

本季度上網本約佔整個 PC 市場的 12%，與上一季度的比例相似，並且比上一年有顯著增長。

Business PCs declined high single digits year-over-year but were up sequentially.

商用個人電腦同比下降高個位數，但環比上升。

Now, with that backdrop, let's move onto the revenue and business drivers by segment, beginning with the Windows division.

現在，在這種背景下，讓我們從 Windows 部門開始按細分市場分析收入和業務驅動因素。

Overall, OEM unit sales increased 6% from last year, several points over the PC market, due to higher attach and some inventory builds in advance of the Windows 7 launch.

總體而言，OEM 單位銷售額比去年增長了 6%，比 PC 市場高幾個百分點，這是由於更高的附加值以及在 Windows 7 發布之前建立的一些庫存。

At our financial analyst meeting in July, Steve shared with you a slide that bridged the change in the PC market to OEM revenue growth.

在 7 月的財務分析師會議上，Steve 與您分享了一張幻燈片，該幻燈片將 PC 市場的變化與 OEM 收入增長聯繫起來。

We have included the first-quarter bridge in our slide deck.

我們已經將第一季度的橋樑包括在我們的幻燈片中。

To start, OEM revenues decreased 6% from last year.

首先，OEM 收入比去年下降了 6%。

Changes in segment mix represented a 7% decline in OEM revenue from the prior year.

細分市場組合的變化意味著 OEM 收入比上一年下降了 7%。

This was due to the PC market dynamics I discussed earlier, including continued growth in netbooks and the overall higher mix of consumer PCs versus business PCs.

這是由於我之前討論過的個人電腦市場動態，包括上網本的持續增長以及消費個人電腦與商用個人電腦的總體比例更高。

Windows attach and inventory represented a 4% increase.

Windows 附加和庫存增加了 4%。

Attach rates increased year-over-year due to strong attach gains on netbooks and a continued shift to multinational OEMs, which reduce piracy.

由於上網本的強勁附加收益以及向跨國 OEM 的持續轉移，從而減少了盜版，附加率同比上升。

Other items represented a 3% decrease due to the shift toward multinational OEMs and the wind-down of Windows XP revenue deferral.

由於轉向跨國 OEM 和 Windows XP 收入遞延的結束，其他項目下降了 3%。

The commercial, retail and online portion of the Windows division was up 2%, primarily driven by presales of Windows 7.

Windows 部門的商業、零售和在線部分增長了 2%，主要受 Windows 7 預售的推動。

Now let me touch on some sequential trends.

現在讓我談談一些連續的趨勢。

On a sequential basis OEM units increased 19% or about 3 percentage points faster than the overall PC market.

OEM 單位連續增長 19% 或比整個 PC 市場快約 3 個百分點。

OEM revenue, meanwhile, decreased to 20% sequentially; and, as you can see, exceeded OEM unit growth.

與此同時，OEM 收入環比下降至 20%；而且，如您所見，超過了 OEM 單位的增長。

To put the quarter results in perspective, Q1 represented the highest number of Windows licenses sold in one quarter ever, and September was the highest single month of Windows unit sales ever.

從本季度的結果來看，第一季度是有史以來銷售的 Windows 許可證數量最多的一個季度，而 9 月是有史以來 Windows 單位銷售量最高的月份。

In summary, it was a very solid quarter for the Windows division, and with Windows 7, we have a great product for the recovering PC market.

總而言之，對於 Windows 部門來說，這是一個非常穩健的季度，並且有了 Windows 7，我們為正在復甦的 PC 市場提供了一款出色的產品。

Now let's move to Server and Tools.

現在讓我們轉到服務器和工具。

In general, the conditions from the fourth quarter remain unchanged.

總體而言，第四季度的情況保持不變。

We had a strong attach of Windows Server, SQL Server and System Center.

我們有 Windows Server、SQL Server 和 System Center 的強大連接。

As a result, our license-only and OEM business declined less than the 20% drop estimated for the underlying x86 server hardware market.

因此，我們的僅許可和 OEM 業務下降幅度低於基礎 x86 服務器硬件市場預計的 20% 的下降幅度。

Annuity revenue was up single digits, in line with the outlook we gave last quarter.

年金收入增長個位數，與我們上個季度給出的展望一致。

FX rate changes were a 2-percentage-point head wind to revenue.

匯率變動對收入造成 2 個百分點的不利影響。

As I mentioned earlier, we launched Windows Server 2008 R2 to the market yesterday.

正如我之前提到的，我們昨天向市場推出了 Windows Server 2008 R2。

We believe the virtualization and management capabilities offered are currently the best value in the marketplace, and we are excited by the enterprise enthusiasm for this product.

我們相信所提供的虛擬化和管理功能是目前市場上最有價值的，我們對企業對該產品的熱情感到興奮。

Moving on to the Online Services Divison, online advertising revenue was down 3% but included a 3-point FX headwind.

轉到在線服務部門，在線廣告收入下降了 3%，但包括 3 點的外匯逆風。

While we experienced continued growth in page views, display revenue was weighed down by industry-wide year-over-year declines in advertising rates.

雖然我們的頁面瀏覽量持續增長，但顯示收入受到全行業廣告費率同比下降的拖累。

On a sequential basis, however, rates seem to be stabilizing.

然而，在連續的基礎上，利率似乎趨於穩定。

In the US search revenue was up mid-single digits despite industry-wide monetization declines in the quarter.

儘管本季度全行業的貨幣化下降，但美國的搜索收入增長了中個位數。

We continue to make search share gains with Bing, with share in the US up every month since the June release.

我們繼續通過 Bing 提高搜索份額，自 6 月發布以來，美國的份額每個月都在上升。

In July we signed a commercial agreement with Yahoo to further gain scale and momentum in the search business.

7 月，我們與雅虎簽署了一項商業協議，以進一步擴大搜索業務的規模和發展勢頭。

We are working through the regulatory review process and continue to be hopeful the deal will be approved early in calendar 2010.

我們正在通過監管審查程序，並繼續希望該交易將在 2010 年初獲得批准。

In addition, earlier this week we announced strategic partners with Facebook and Twitter.

此外，本週早些時候，我們宣布了與 Facebook 和 Twitter 的戰略合作夥伴。

These partnerships demonstrate our continued search innovation and specifically with social media and real-time content.

這些合作夥伴關係展示了我們持續的搜索創新，特別是在社交媒體和實時內容方面。

Moving on, Microsoft Business Division revenue was down 11% due to declines in both business and consumer spending.

接下來，由於商業和消費者支出的下降，微軟業務部門的收入下降了 11%。

FX rate changes were 2 percentage-point head wind to revenue.

匯率變化對收入造成 2 個百分點的不利影響。

Business revenue was down 4%, reflecting weak Business PC sales.

業務收入下降 4%，反映出商用 PC 銷售疲軟。

Within that, annuity revenue was up low-single digits, in line with the outlook we provided last quarter, while license-only sales declined over 20%.

其中，年金收入增長了低個位數，與我們上季度提供的前景一致，而僅許可銷售額下降了 20% 以上。

Consumer revenue, which includes the OEM and retail portions of this business, declined 34%, driven by tough inventory comps over last year due to prior-year pricing promotions and lower attach from the continuing shift to lower-priced PCs I discussed in my Windows division commentary.

消費者收入（包括該業務的 OEM 和零售部分）下降了 34%，原因是由於去年的價格促銷和我在 Windows 中討論的繼續轉向低價 PC 導致的低附加值導致去年庫存比較困難部門評論。

Within MBG, we continued to see double-digit growth in our SharePoint, Office Communications Server and CRM products.

在 MBG 中，我們的 SharePoint、Office Communications Server 和 CRM 產品繼續實現兩位數的增長。

In the Entertainment and Devices division, while console revenue was impacted by price cuts and volume decline, overall gaming revenue was up almost $100 million.

在娛樂和設備部門，雖然遊戲機收入受到降價和銷量下降的影響，但整體遊戲收入增長了近 1 億美元。

Halo 3: ODST was the number-one selling console title in the US last month, along with five other Xbox 360 games in the top 10.

Halo 3: ODST 是上個月在美國銷量第一的主機遊戲，其他五款 Xbox 360 遊戲也進入前 10 名。

With a worldwide installed base of almost 34 million consoles, Xbox 360 continues to lead the industry with an 8.7 software title attach rate.

Xbox 360 擁有近 3400 萬台遊戲機的全球安裝基礎，繼續以 8.7 的軟件標題附加率引領行業。

Xbox LIVE also contributed strongly to the quarter's performance with revenue growth in excess of 50%.

Xbox LIVE 也為該季度的業績做出了巨大貢獻，收入增長超過 50%。

We believe consumers will be excited by the richer multimedia enhancements and integration with social networks that we are delivering this fall.

我們相信消費者將會對我們今年秋季推出的更豐富的多媒體增強功能和與社交網絡的集成感到興奮。

Now for the rest of the income statement.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。

Cost of revenue was flat at $2.8 billion, driven by increased search distribution and online costs, which were offset by lower Xbox 360 console costs and service and support costs.

收入成本持平於 28 億美元，主要受搜索分發和在線成本增加的推動，但被 Xbox 360 主機成本以及服務和支持成本降低所抵消。

Operating expenses decreased 10% to $5.6 billion, driven by reductions in headcount, headcount-related expenses and vendor costs.

由於員工人數、員工人數相關費用和供應商成本的減少，運營費用下降了 10% 至 56 億美元。

Diluted shares outstanding were about 9 billion, down 2% from the prior year.

稀釋後流通股約為90億股，比上年下降2%。

This quarter we repurchased $1.4 billion worth of shares and paid $1.2 billion of dividends.

本季度我們回購了價值 14 億美元的股票並支付了 12 億美元的股息。

Adjusted earnings per share was $0.52, and an 8% increase from the prior year.

調整後每股收益為 0.52 美元，比上年增長 8%。

Cash flow from operations was $6.1 billion.

運營現金流為 61 億美元。

So, to wrap up, while business spending and the macroeconomic environment remained challenging, the consumer segment performed better than expected, and Windows 7 is off to a great start.

因此，總而言之，儘管企業支出和宏觀經濟環境仍然充滿挑戰，但消費者部門的表現好於預期，Windows 7 有了一個良好的開端。

And we feel terrific about our execution this quarter.

我們對本季度的執行感到非常滿意。

With that I'll hand it back to Chris, who is going to discuss our business outlook.

有了這個，我會把它交還給克里斯，他將討論我們的業務前景。

The remainder of this call I'll discuss our expectations for the second quarter and the remainder of fiscal 2010, starting with our assumptions for the industry.

在本次電話會議的其餘部分，我將討論我們對第二季度和 2010 財年剩餘時間的預期，從我們對行業的假設開始。

Overall, the corporate IT spending trends we discussed in July remain intact.

總體而言，我們在 7 月份討論的企業 IT 支出趨勢保持不變。

In our conversations with CIOs, many remain cautious about existing budgets and spending through the end of this calendar year.

在我們與 CIO 的對話中，許多人對截至本日曆年年底的現有預算和支出仍持謹慎態度。

However, we believe calendar 2010 has the potential for improvement.

然而，我們認為 2010 年日曆具有改進的潛力。

Given the industry backdrop, we are extremely well-positioned, due to the strongest product cycle in our Company's history and also continue to believe that we exit the economic reset a much stronger, more focused and cost-efficient company.

鑑於行業背景，由於我們公司歷史上最強勁的產品週期，我們處於非常有利的位置，並且我們仍然相信我們退出經濟重置是一家更強大、更專注和更具成本效益的公司。

Turning to segment expectations, in the second quarter we expected the Windows division revenue, excluding the impact of the Windows 7 upgrade program, to be in line with overall PC market growth.

轉向部門預期，我們預計第二季度 Windows 部門的收入（不包括 Windows 7 升級計劃的影響）將與整體 PC 市場增長保持一致。

With the launch of Windows 7, we expect inventory to rebuild in the channel and an increase in retail sales.

隨著 Windows 7 的推出，我們預計庫存將在渠道中重建並增加零售額。

This should offset the three hardware trends we've seen in recent quarters, which are netbooks growing faster than non-netbook PCs, consumer PCs growing faster than business PCs and emerging markets growing faster than developed markets.

這應該會抵消我們在最近幾個季度看到的三個硬件趨勢，即上網本的增長速度快於非上網本 PC、消費類 PC 的增長速度快於商用 PC 以及新興市場的增長速度快於發達市場。

In the second quarter we expect to recognize virtually all of the $1.7 billion of Windows 7 upgrade revenue deferrals from the last two quarters.

在第二季度，我們預計將確認過去兩個季度幾乎所有 17 億美元的 Windows 7 升級收入延期。

For the balance of the fiscal tear we expect Windows division revenue to remain in line with or slightly ahead of the overall PC market growth, with the main variable being the pace of business PC improvement.

對於財政撕裂的餘額，我們預計 Windows 部門的收入將與整體 PC 市場增長保持一致或略高於整體 PC 市場增長，主要變量是商用 PC 改進的速度。

We see the potential for a corporate PC refresh cycle beginning in calendar year 2010, although it could be gradual and occur over a couple of years.

我們看到了從 2010 日曆年開始的企業 PC 更新周期的潛力，儘管它可能是漸進的並且會在幾年內發生。

We also expect the netbook mix to stabilize over the course of the year.

我們還預計上網本產品組合將在今年內趨於穩定。

In the second quarter we expect Microsoft Business Division dynamics and revenue trends to be largely the same as they were in the first quarter, with growth lagging PC shipments, due to the factors Bill mentioned in his commentary.

由於比爾在評論中提到的因素，我們預計第二季度微軟業務部門的動態和收入趨勢將與第一季度基本相同，增長滯後於 PC 出貨量。

For the full year, the consumer and business non-annuity revenue, approximately 40% of the titles, should face the same trends as in the second quarter with increasing pressure in advance of the next product cycle, and as such could continue to lag PC shipments.

全年來看，大約 40% 的消費者和企業非年金收入將面臨與第二季度相同的趨勢，在下一個產品週期之前的壓力越來越大，因此可能繼續落後於 PC出貨量。

We continue to expect annuity revenue, representing 60% of the total, to be broadly flat for the full year.

我們繼續預計佔總收入 60% 的年金收入將在全年基本持平。

As I called out last quarter, MBD results should improve when we start to see business spending recover, combined with the impact of Office 2010.

正如我上個季度所說，當我們開始看到業務支出恢復時，MBD 結果應該會有所改善，再加上 Office 2010 的影響。

The Server and Tools business is most closely aligned to enterprise spend.

服務器和工具業務與企業支出密切相關。

We expect the server shipment trend to gradually start to improve towards the end of our fiscal year.

我們預計服務器出貨量趨勢將在本財年末逐漸開始改善。

We expect non-annuity revenue, which is approximately 35% of the total, to move generally in line with server shipments for the quarter and the year, and annuity revenue will be mid-single digits while services should be flat for the year.

我們預計，約佔總收入 35% 的非年金收入將與本季度和本年度的服務器出貨量基本保持一致，年金收入將保持中個位數，而全年服務應持平。

In the Entertainment and Devices Division, although we realized upside from our third-party gains in the first quarter, remember, we did release two significant titles in the second quarter of last year, which should cause difficult year-over-year comparisons.

在娛樂和設備部門，儘管我們在第一季度實現了第三方收益的增長，但請記住，我們確實在去年第二季度發布了兩個重要的遊戲，這應該會導致難以進行同比比較。

We therefore expect E&D revenue to decline several points in the second quarter, but we expect the full year revenue to be roughly flat as price cuts taken in August are offset by attached revenue and a larger console installed base.

因此，我們預計第二季度 E&D 收入將下降幾個百分點，但我們預計全年收入將大致持平，因為 8 月份的降價被附加收入和更大的控制台安裝基礎所抵消。

Turning to cost of goods sold, driving cost out of our operations plus a more favorable revenue mix resulted in a better performance for the year, and we now expect COGS as a percentage of revenue to increase only 1 point this year compared to the 2 that we just discussed at last call.

轉向銷售商品成本，將成本從我們的運營中剔除，加上更有利的收入組合導致今年業績更好，我們現在預計今年銷貨成本佔收入的百分比僅增加 1 個百分點，而 2我們剛剛在上次通話中討論過。

With operating expenses, we also continue to make excellent progress.

加上運營費用，我們也繼續取得優異的進展。

We're lowering our guidance for the full year to a range of $26.2 billion to $26.5 billion, down from what we said in July.

我們將全年的指導下調至 262 億至 265 億美元，低於 7 月份的預期。

This decrease, however, also absorbed an additional $100 million to $200 million of Yahoo!

然而，這一減少也吸收了雅虎額外 1 億至 2 億美元的資金。

integration costs, should the deal pass regulatory review.

整合成本，如果交易通過監管審查。

We will continue to look for additional cost savings opportunities both in cost of goods sold and in operating expenses through the rest of the fiscal year.

在本財年剩餘時間內，我們將繼續在銷售成本和運營費用方面尋找額外的成本節約機會。

We expect CapEx to be, at most, $2 billion for the year, and the tax rate to be 25%.

我們預計今年資本支出最多為 20 億美元，稅率為 25%。

So, in summary, I feel great about how we are executing, given the economic reset that we've been through.

所以，總而言之，考慮到我們經歷的經濟重置，我對我們的執行方式感覺很好。

We are driving excellent cash flow, product innovation and continued cost discipline.

我們正在推動出色的現金流、產品創新和持續的成本紀律。

More importantly, our strategies will position us to take advantage of a recovering economy, which we hope to begin in the next calendar year.

更重要的是，我們的戰略將使我們能夠利用正在復甦的經濟，我們希望在下一個日曆年開始。

The ensuing revenue growth, combined with continuing cost discipline, will set us up for long-term earnings per share growth and a significant return of shareholder value.

隨之而來的收入增長，加上持續的成本紀律，將為我們實現每股收益的長期增長和股東價值的顯著回報做好準備。

So with that, let me take your questions, and I'll hand back to Bill.

有了這個，讓我回答你的問題，然後我會交給比爾。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

We want to get to as many questions as possible from you, so please stick to one question and avoid long or multi-part questions.

我們希望從您那裡得到盡可能多的問題，所以請堅持一個問題，避免冗長或多部分的問題。

Operator, please go ahead and repeat your instructions.

接線員，請繼續並重複您的指示。

(Operator instructions) Adam Holt, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）Adam Holt，摩根士丹利。

Good morning and congratulations on the quarter.

早上好，祝賀本季度。

My question is about average selling prices for Windows.

我的問題是關於 Windows 的平均售價。

You actually saw premium mix increase sequentially.

您實際上看到溢價組合依次增加。

I was wondering, where do you think premium mix can go as you get deeper into the Windows 7 cycle, and when would you expect average selling prices to actually start to be additive to the Windows revenue story?

我想知道，隨著 Windows 7 週期的深入，您認為高級組合會走向何方？您預計平均售價何時會真正開始增加 Windows 的收入？

In terms of the premium mix, clearly that's going to change with the SKU structure that we have in Windows 7.

就高級組合而言，顯然這將隨著我們在 Windows 7 中的 SKU 結構而改變。

And I think we'll start to see a bit of -- in terms of that statistic, a better number going forward, simply because we won't have Home Basic in the developed markets.

而且我認為我們將開始看到一些 - 就該統計數據而言，未來的數字會更好，這僅僅是因為我們不會在發達市場擁有 Home Basic。

So that's -- we are going to see a much better Home premium mix.

所以這就是——我們將看到一個更好的家庭優質組合。

In terms of how that feeds through the financials, which I think is the main point, we'll start to see it improve better.

就這如何影響財務而言，我認為這是重點，我們將開始看到它得到更好的改善。

But in particular, we'll start to see it better when we get a bit of Business PC mix.

但特別是，當我們獲得一些商用 PC 組合時，我們會開始更好地看到它。

And to date, we've been clearly seeing a headwind in that, and hopefully, next year as we start to see a business PC refresh cycle, we'll start to see a better mix there.

迄今為止，我們已經清楚地看到了逆風，希望明年隨著我們開始看到商用 PC 更新周期，我們將開始看到更好的組合。

But that average selling price, which in the last year has been probably a negative, I would expect to turn neutral or even slightly positive as we go through the year.

但是，平均售價在去年可能是負數，我預計隨著我們這一年的過去，它會轉為中性甚至略微正數。

John DiFucci, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的約翰·迪福奇。

Chris, it looks like you saw some benefit from channel inventory build this quarter after three quarters of I think it was a net negative contribution in the last three.

克里斯，看起來你從本季度的渠道庫存建設中看到了一些好處，我認為這是過去三個季度的淨負貢獻。

You mentioned you expect inventory to build in the channel, I think, going forward here.

您提到您希望在渠道中建立庫存，我認為，在這裡繼續前進。

I'm just curious.

我只是好奇。

How much more is there before we start to get to what you might consider to be sort of, I guess, quote, normal inventory, if there was such a thing?

在我們開始討論你可能認為的東西之前還有多少，我猜，報價，正常庫存，如果有這樣的事情？

Do we have another quarter or another couple of quarters?

我們還有一個季度還是另外幾個季度？

Is this something that could be a net positive for, I don't know, the next few quarters?

我不知道，這對接下來的幾個季度是否會產生淨積極影響？

Yes; I think it will be a net positive throughout the year simply because channel inventory builds.

是的;我認為這將是全年的淨積極因素，僅僅是因為渠道庫存的建立。

And then, even if it just stays at that level, it will be positive relative to a low level that was throughout last year.

然後，即使它只是保持在那個水平，相對於去年全年的低水平，它也將是積極的。

So we don't need to see any additional build from what we saw, for it to be a year-on-year mathematical benefit.

因此，我們不需要從我們所看到的內容中看到任何額外的構建，因為它是逐年的數學收益。

So I think it's going to be a benefit right through the year.

所以我認為這將是一個全年的好處。

Whether it continues to get even better again, we'll see.

它是否會繼續變得更好，我們拭目以待。

And that's going to depend, clearly, on the demand that OEMs to see through the Christmas period.

顯然，這將取決於原始設備製造商在聖誕節期間的需求。

What we saw -- and you are certainly right; it was, last year as the economy contracted, people clearly reduced the amount of inventory we had, so we not only had lower demand, we had lower inventory holdings.

我們所看到的——你當然是對的；去年，隨著經濟收縮，人們明顯減少了我們的庫存量，所以我們不僅需求減少，庫存也減少了。

We saw that reverse in the first quarter, but we've only got back to what I'd describe as normal levels.

我們在第一季度看到了這種逆轉，但我們只是回到了我所說的正常水平。

We haven't got an excess of inventory in the channel, although clearly depending on demand.

儘管顯然取決於需求，但我們在渠道中沒有過多的庫存。

So we've got back to a normal level.

所以我們已經恢復到正常水平。

If we stick at that, it will be a year-over-year benefit.

如果我們堅持這一點，這將是一個同比增長的收益。

If we get good sales and good sell-through of Windows 7-based PCs, which were expecting, we could see some additional channel build as well.

如果我們獲得預期的基於 Windows 7 的 PC 的良好銷售和良好銷售，我們也可以看到一些額外的渠道建設。

Sarah Friar, Goldman Sachs.

莎拉·弗萊爾，高盛。

Good morning and good quarter.

早上好，好季度。

Just to switch gears a little over onto online services, you talked a little bit about the timing of the Yahoo!

只是為了稍微切換到在線服務，您談到了雅虎的時間安排！

transaction and the expectation that the cost is in the cost guidance you've given.

交易以及對成本在您提供的成本指導中的期望。

Can you give us any color, Chris, on what you're expecting on the top line add for Yahoo!

克里斯，你能給我們任何顏色嗎，你對雅虎頂行的期望添加什麼！

and then any other kind of one-off costs?

然後還有其他類型的一次性費用？

I know that Steve had mentioned a few, way back on the Yahoo!

我知道史蒂夫提到過一些，早在雅虎！

call.

稱呼。

Sure.

當然。

The $100 million to $200 million that I mentioned in my commentary is the cost, and that includes all the -- what I've described as one-off costs.

我在評論中提到的 1 億到 2 億美元是成本，這包括所有我所說的一次性成本。

There's setup costs in anticipation of migrating over.

預期遷移需要設置成本。

So that would be the total, and that will clearly depend on when we get regulatory review, assuming that we do, and how quickly we can implement.

所以這就是總數，這顯然取決於我們何時獲得監管審查，假設我們這樣做，以及我們能夠以多快的速度實施。

So there is a range there.

所以那裡有一個範圍。

On the revenue side, there will be virtually no revenue contribution this fiscal year, so all of those costs will be, if you like, one-off startup costs that we will incur this year in anticipation of a revenue contribution in fiscal year '11.

在收入方面，本財年幾乎沒有收入貢獻，因此，如果您願意，所有這些成本都將是我們今年將產生的一次性啟動成本，以期在 11 財年實現收入貢獻.

And fiscal year '11 -- I know you are not guiding for it, but just to put some boundaries around it, what sort of size are you thinking about for Yahoo!

和 11 財年——我知道你不是在為它做指導，只是為了給它設置一些界限，你在為 Yahoo! 考慮什麼樣的規模！

right now?

馬上？

We see it at about a $360 million type contribution, based on what they have been doing.

根據他們一直在做的事情，我們看到它的貢獻約為 3.6 億美元。

Yes (multiple speakers)

是（多位發言者）

-- put on the spot (multiple speakers).

—— 即場（多位發言者）。

That's much more exact than I'd give on the call.

這比我在電話中給出的要準確得多。

It will be hundreds of millions, but it's not going to be more than that or less than that, so you are in the right order of magnitude.

它將是數億，但不會多於或少於那，所以你的數量級是正確的。

I can't give you anything more specific than that on this call.

在這次電話會議上，我不能給你任何更具體的信息。

Brad Reback, Oppenheimer.

布拉德·雷貝克，奧本海默。

Chris, on the last call, on the COGS side of the equation, you talked about undertaking an internal program to focus on driving down cost.

克里斯，在最後一次電話會議上，在 COGS 方面，您談到了開展一項內部計劃以專注於降低成本。

Obviously, some of that is showing up here in the guidance going forward.

顯然，其中一些在未來的指導中有所體現。

Can you give us a sense of how far through you are with that program and if there's meaningful gains to be had from this point forward?

您能否告訴我們您對該計劃的進展程度以及從現在開始是否有有意義的收益？

Certainly, in the cost of goods sold area, I see that really as a journey that never ends.

當然，在商品銷售成本方面，我認為這真的是一個永無止境的旅程。

So that's something that we're going to focus on year after year after year now, and certainly in good manufacturing discipline a lot of it is manufacturing hardware COGS.

所以這就是我們現在年復一年地關注的事情，當然在良好的製造紀律中，很多都是製造硬件 COGS。

That's the sort of approach you should take.

這就是你應該採取的方法。

So I don't -- certainly, we've embarked on a project which has made some significant difference in the short term.

所以我不 - 當然，我們已經開始了一個在短期內產生了重大影響的項目。

And you are right; we are starting to see some benefit of that feeding through this fiscal year.

你是對的；在本財政年度，我們開始看到這種支持的一些好處。

So I'm really happy with the progress that we have made, but that's not going to be a one-off where we just do it this year and then we stop.

所以我對我們取得的進展感到非常高興，但這不會是一次性的，我們今年只是這樣做然後就停下來。

That's going to be something that we will look to continue the disciplines that we've brought in place in the last six to nine months.

這將是我們希望繼續我們在過去六到九個月內實施的學科的事情。

So definitely getting some short-term benefit.

所以肯定會獲得一些短期利益。

Definitely, you will get some this year.

當然，今年你會得到一些。

I wouldn't promise a lot more than we are starting to guide to because I think we are fairly accurate on what we are likely to achieve this year.

我不會承諾比我們開始指導的更多，因為我認為我們對今年可能實現的目標相當準確。

But I'd like to think that's a program that we can perpetuate next year and the year after, and really in perpetuity there afterwards.

但我想這是一個我們可以在明年和後年永久存在的計劃，並且在之後真的永久存在。

Phil Winslow, Credit Suisse.

菲爾溫斯洛，瑞士信貸。

Just a question on the Server and Tools division.

只是關於服務器和工具部門的一個問題。

Clearly, those are tied to server shipments.

顯然，這些與服務器出貨量有關。

But as you look out over the next couple of quarters and with your commentary on just general enterprise spending, when do you think we could actually start to see the inflection point in that line item?

但是，當您展望接下來的幾個季度以及您對一般企業支出的評論時，您認為我們何時才能真正開始看到該項目的拐點？

And how should we think about the services component of that division, too, relative to the license as well?

我們應該如何考慮該部門的服務組件，以及相對於許可證？

I'll stick to external forecasts on the underlying server demand.

我將堅持對底層服務器需求的外部預測。

Most of the external forecasts are seeing it to improve from around now through to next year.

從現在到明年，大多數外部預測都認為它會有所改善。

So we would expect -- and we subscribe to that.

所以我們會期待 - 我們同意這一點。

We would expect it to get less negative as the year goes on and start to improve through next calendar year.

我們預計隨著時間的推移，它的負面影響會減少，並在下一個日曆年開始改善。

The benefit we're seeing there is mainly, like, in market share.

我們看到的好處主要是市場份額。

So we've got great attach relative to the server market.

所以我們對服務器市場有很好的依戀。

So as it starts to improve, we would see the non-annuity component of our revenue start to improve as well.

因此，隨著它開始改善，我們將看到我們收入的非年金部分也開始改善。

So that should be an evolving trend through the rest of this fiscal year going into next calendar year.

因此，在本財年剩餘時間到下一個日曆年，這應該是一個不斷發展的趨勢。

How quickly that will happen, we'll see.

這將發生多快，我們將拭目以待。

I think we are all waiting to see how well the economy rebounds when it does.

我認為我們都在等著看經濟反彈的情況。

We are still, as I was at the July financial analyst meeting, still on the relatively conservative side.

就像我在 7 月的金融分析師會議上一樣，我們仍然處於相對保守的一邊。

We are not seeing a large rebound, but we'd like to think, certainly as we go into next calendar year, we'll start to see businesses spending again.

我們沒有看到大幅反彈，但我們想當然地認為，隨著我們進入下一個日曆年，我們將開始看到企業再次支出。

And we'll be raised with that, with good attach.

我們會因此而長大，並有良好的依戀。

On the services side, it's going to be pretty flat.

在服務方面，它將非常平坦。

I wouldn't expect that to bounce back quickly.

我不希望它迅速反彈。

So a flattish expectation on the services side, certainly through the rest of this fiscal year and going into the next one, would be my starting point.

因此，對服務方面的平淡期望，當然是在本財年剩餘時間和下一個財年，將是我的出發點。

Kash Rangan, Merrill Lynch.

卡什蘭根，美林證券。

Chris and the rest of his team, I was just wondering, what are you hearing from corporates?

克里斯和他的團隊的其他成員，我只是想知道，你從公司那裡聽到了什麼？

We have been spending some time talking to large corporates that are deploying Windows 7.

我們一直在與正在部署 Windows 7 的大型企業進行交流。

It looks like the deployment plans are coming in a little bit earlier than expectations, at least from their standpoint, hearing of the business benefits of deploying Windows 7.

看起來部署計劃比預期早一點，至少從他們的角度來看，聽說部署 Windows 7 的商業利益。

I'm just curious, what are you hearing about the upgrade cycle for Windows 7 in the corporate, because I would imagine that's got a pretty significant implication for your business premium mix going into next year because all of the lift you are getting in the near-term seems to be from the consumer side.

我只是好奇，您對企業中 Windows 7 的升級週期有何看法，因為我想這對您進入明年的業務高級組合有非常重要的影響，因為您獲得的所有提升近期似乎是從消費端。

And also, secondarily, wondering if you can comment on the shrink-wrap business, pre-orders from consumer channel, for Windows 7.

其次，想知道您是否可以評論 Windows 7 的收縮包裝業務，即來自消費者渠道的預購。

On the business side, you are right; anecdotal feedback is certainly good at this stage from corporates in terms of their reaction to Windows 7 and the benefits it brings.

在業務方面，您是對的；就企業對 Windows 7 的反應及其帶來的好處而言，現階段企業的軼事反饋肯定是好的。

We are still staying reasonably cautious about the upgrade cycle.

我們仍然對升級週期保持相當謹慎的態度。

Certainly, we expect it to begin next year, but we talk about it spreading over maybe a couple of years.

當然，我們預計它將於明年開始，但我們談論它可能會在幾年內傳播。

So I would like to think that we will start to see much better business PC numbers year-over-year next calendar year.

因此，我想我們將在下一個日曆年開始看到比去年同期更好的商用 PC 數量。

And I think we have been consistent on that on the last couple of calls, and we are still there.

我認為我們在最近幾次電話會議上一直保持一致，我們仍然在那裡。

All of the feedback that we get so far is positive, and so that supports a view that we'll start to see that.

到目前為止，我們得到的所有反饋都是積極的，因此支持我們將開始看到這一點的觀點。

How quickly that will happen, we are not going to speculate quite yet.

這會以多快的速度發生，我們還不能推測。

But certainly, all the early signs are good at this stage.

但可以肯定的是，在這個階段，所有的早期跡像都是好的。

On the shrink-wrap or FTP side, again, we only launched yesterday.

同樣，在收縮包裝或 FTP 方面，我們昨天才推出。

So it's a little hard to tell because people are buying in anticipation of demand as opposed to actual demand.

所以這有點難以判斷，因為人們是在預期需求而不是實際需求時購買的。

But again, the --

但是，再次——

You've had pre-order, you've taken pre-orders on the consumer side way back when.

你已經預訂了，你已經在消費者方面接受了預訂。

Right?

正確的？

Sure.

當然。

That's been very good, but that's small.

這是非常好的，但那是很小的。

That's small, but they have been extremely good, I would say.

那是很小的，但我會說，它們非常好。

That's been right at the top end of our expectations, at modest financial impact but extremely good reaction.

這正好在我們預期的最高端，對財務影響不大，但反應非常好。

So that has been extremely good, and the sales in retail we are expecting through the next three months to be very good.

所以這非常好，我們預計未來三個月的零售銷售會非常好。

Heather Bellini, ISI Group.

希瑟·貝里尼，ISI 集團。

Chris, you guys have done a phenomenal job on the cost side, surpassing everybody's expectations.

克里斯，你們在成本方面做得非常出色，超出了所有人的預期。

I was wondering if you could give us your view on whether or not it makes sense to think OpEx in fiscal '11 might grow at the rate of inflation, just as a general proxy, especially given that the big bear story is that Microsoft will start accelerating its investments and OpEx will start ramping again, once top line starts to improve.

我想知道您是否可以就認為 11 財年的 OpEx 可能會以通貨膨脹率增長是否有意義，就像一般代理一樣，特別是考慮到大空頭的故事是微軟將開始一旦收入開始改善，加速其投資和運營支出將再次開始上升。

This is the earliest ever for fiscal year '11 guidance, I think.

我認為，這是有史以來最早的 11 財年指導。

Okay, I don't see -- I really don't want to give a specific number, but I don't see any internal force that is going to significantly increase OpEx in fiscal year '11, at this stage.

好吧，我看不出——我真的不想給出具體數字，但我看不到任何內部力量會在 11 財年顯著增加運營支出，現階段。

I think the disciplines that we have put in place are going to continue, at least for that period of time.

我認為我們已經建立的紀律將繼續下去，至少在那段時間是這樣。

And whilst we'll clearly be looking to fund some projects, so I'm not going to say it's flat, I don't see it ramping back to anything like what you might have seen in the economic -- before the economic reset, in terms of growth.

雖然我們顯然會尋求資助一些項目，所以我不會說它是平穩的，我不認為它會恢復到你在經濟中可能看到的任何東西——在經濟重置之前，在增長方面。

And that's, in particular, because at this stage we are still relatively cautious about the economic rebound.

尤其是因為現階段我們對經濟反彈還是比較謹慎的。

So I think this fiscal discipline that you have seen will continue certainly for the next let's say 12 to 18 months.

因此，我認為您所看到的這種財政紀律肯定會在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內持續下去。

Now, I have cautioned you with the obvious comment, we are just about to go into our strategic planning round, which then goes into our budgeting round.

現在，我已經用明顯的評論提醒你了，我們即將進入我們的戰略規劃輪次，然後進入我們的預算輪次。

So that's a directional comment; that's not a specific guidance at this stage.

所以這是一個定向評論；這不是現階段的具體指導。

Todd Raker, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的托德·雷克。

Hey, guys, nice quarter.

嘿，伙計們，漂亮的季度。

Could you dig into the ASP impact a little bit more in depth on the netbook side?

您能否更深入地研究 ASP 在上網本方面的影響？

As you see the OEMs moving from an XP SKU to a Win 7 starter edition, what does that do to the economics of the low end of the business?

當您看到 OEM 從 XP SKU 轉向 Win 7 入門版時，這對低端業務的經濟性有何影響？

And, how do you think that trends out over the next 12 to 18 months?

而且，您如何看待未來 12 到 18 個月的趨勢？

Let's start with the consumer reaction because that's the sort of leading indicator.

讓我們從消費者的反應開始，因為這是一種領先指標。

And how do we feel about the consumer reaction to, firstly, having Windows on a netbook?

我們如何看待消費者對首先在上網本上安裝 Windows 的反應？

Obviously, that has been phenomenal, going from zero attach to -- in the mid-90s.

顯然，從零開始到 90 年代中期，這已經很了不起了。

So people are clearly willing to pay for having Windows on their netbook.

因此，人們顯然願意為在他們的上網本上安裝 Windows 付費。

So that's the first and most important fundamental.

所以這是第一個也是最重要的基礎。

Then, in terms of Windows 7 reaction, clearly yet to see, but early indications in terms of the OEM build that we are having and the mix that they are putting in terms of Windows 7 is encouraging.

然後，就 Windows 7 的反應而言，顯然還有待觀察，但就我們所擁有的 OEM 構建以及他們在 Windows 7 方面的組合而言，早期跡象令人鼓舞。

Now, it's very early days, but encouraging at this stage in terms of their expectations of the number of people who are going to want to see a Windows 7 on their netbook as opposed to an XP.

現在，這還為時過早，但就他們對希望在他們的上網本上看到 Windows 7 而不是 XP 的人數的期望而言，在這個階段令人鼓舞。

In terms of the ASP impact, clearly it's almost twice on Windows 7 what it would be on XP, or a significant premium off a modest base.

就 ASP 的影響而言，顯然它在 Windows 7 上幾乎是 XP 上的兩倍，或者說是在適度基礎上的顯著溢價。

So it's going to be beneficial, but I think it's more important symbolically from our point of view that people see value in Windows 7 and are willing to pay for it.

所以這將是有益的，但我認為從我們的角度來看，象徵意義更重要的是人們看到了 Windows 7 的價值並願意為此付費。

Netbooks, even though they've growing fast, is still are a relatively small component of the overall demand.

上網本雖然增長很快，但在整體需求中仍然是一個相對較小的組成部分。

So it's not going to have a massive financial impact, but it will certainly help in terms of our ASP comparisons year-over-year, if we get sort of good attach of Windows 7 that we are starting to see early days on.

因此，它不會產生巨大的財務影響，但如果我們在早期開始看到 Windows 7 的良好附加，它肯定會有助於我們的 ASP 同比比較。

Sandeep Aggarwal, Collins Stewart.

桑迪普·阿加瓦爾，柯林斯·斯圖爾特。

Chris, last two, three quarters, Microsoft is underperforming in its display advertising business, versus the overall industry.

克里斯，過去兩個、三個季度，微軟在其展示廣告業務上的表現落後於整個行業。

Is display advertising getting ignored because of the increasing focus on search?

由於越來越關注搜索，展示廣告是否會被忽視？

And then how much of online business weakness is (inaudible) [mainly] due to the -- bring cash back and search distribution deals?

然後，有多少在線業務疲軟（聽不清）[主要]是由於——帶來現金返還和搜索分銷交易？

On the display side, I'd have to say, actually, we are performing relatively in-line, certainly, with Yahoo!, when we saw their numbers.

在顯示方面，我不得不說，實際上，當我們看到雅虎的數字時，我們的表現相對一致，當然，雅虎！

So volume and monetization was broadly in line, I would say, with markets.

因此，我想說，銷量和貨幣化與市場大體一致。

So I'm not entirely sure about your underperformance comment.

所以我不完全確定你表現不佳的評論。

But nevertheless, it's difficult, and particularly on the monetization side.

但是，這很困難，尤其是在貨幣化方面。

So we've seen good volume on the display side.

所以我們在顯示器方面看到了良好的音量。

We've continued to see that right through the economic reset, so it's been growing in double digits on the volume side.

通過經濟重置，我們繼續看到這一點，因此它在數量方面一直以兩位數增長。

Where the difficulty has been, has been on monetization.

困難所在，一直是貨幣化。

So in terms of volume I'd say there's no lack of focus because we're continuing to see good user engagement and demand.

因此，就數量而言，我會說不乏關注，因為我們繼續看到良好的用戶參與度和需求。

On the monetization side, it has been tough, and that's, clearly, because of what's been happening in the overall economy.

在貨幣化方面，它一直很艱難，這顯然是因為整體經濟中正在發生的事情。

And I think people have been -- to the extent they have had budgets, they might have pushed it more on the search side than the display side.

而且我認為人們一直 - 在他們有預算的範圍內，他們可能更多地將其推向搜索方面而不是顯示方面。

We should start to see that improve going forward as we see the economy recover.

隨著我們看到經濟復甦，我們應該開始看到這種改善。

So I think you'll see display start to get better.

所以我認為你會看到顯示開始變得更好。

The other thing in display which might be hurting our numbers is just FX.

顯示的另一件事可能會損害我們的數據，那就是 FX。

We have a reasonably strong international component, so FX was a headwind in the first quarter.

我們有相當強大的國際成分，因此外彙在第一季度是一個不利因素。

But no lack of focus there.

但那裡不乏焦點。

Certainly, a lot of focus in search, but there's plenty of people still working on the display side.

當然，在搜索方面有很多重點，但仍有很多人在顯示方面工作。

What was the second part of your question?

你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Sorry.

對不起。

It was about -- is being cash back and search distribution deals -- are they causing any weakness in your online business?

它是關於 - 現金返還和搜索分銷交易 - 它們是否會導致您的在線業務出現任何弱點？

No; they are helping a little bit with volume.

不;他們在音量方面有所幫助。

They are not helping significantly with the financial side because of the nature of it.

由於財務方面的性質，他們在財務方面沒有顯著幫助。

But certainly, in terms of the market share growth in the quarter, that was negligible from cash back; that was really all the underlying search engine and, clearly, the marketing and user engagement that we got from that, so not much of an impact of that from that at all in the quarter.

但可以肯定的是，就本季度的市場份額增長而言，現金返還可以忽略不計；這實際上是所有潛在的搜索引擎，顯然，我們從中獲得的營銷和用戶參與度，因此在本季度根本沒有太大影響。

Robert Breza, RBC Capital.

羅伯特·布雷扎，加拿大皇家銀行資本。

Nice quarter, Chris.

不錯的季度，克里斯。

Just a quick question around PC unit growth.

只是一個關於 PC 單位增長的快速問題。

We've seen everything from third-party research, everything from 8% to 10% to as high as 12%.

我們已經看到了從第三方研究的所有內容，從 8% 到 10% 到高達 12% 的所有內容。

Obviously, the Windows 7 launch plays a big part in that growth.

顯然，Windows 7 的發佈在這一增長中發揮了重要作用。

Any color you can give us about what you think maybe achieves a lower end of that range or maybe the higher end of that range, just independent of Microsoft?

您可以給我們的任何顏色，您認為可能會達到該範圍的低端或該範圍的高端，而與 Microsoft 無關？

Sure.

當然。

It's rebounding very quickly, and I think even in the quarter you saw, relative to where we were three months ago, PC demand, I think, rebounded very quickly relative to everyone's expectations.

它反彈得非常快，我認為即使在你看到的那個季度，相對於我們三個月前的情況，我認為個人電腦需求相對於每個人的預期反彈得非常快。

So it's very hard because of all of the underpinnings of what's going to happen in the overall economy.

因此，這非常困難，因為整個經濟中將發生的事情的所有基礎。

What I think we're seeing is the robustness of the concept of the PC.

我認為我們看到的是 PC 概念的穩健性。

Even through an economic reset, it's something that people want to spend money on.

即使通過經濟重置，這也是人們想要花錢的事情。

And I think that gives us confidence in the long-term trend and the long-term ability to have good, potentially double-digit growth in PC demand.

我認為這讓我們對長期趨勢充滿信心，並且有能力在 PC 需求方面實現良好的、潛在的兩位數增長。

And that's clearly helped by the fact that we've got new form factors.

這顯然得益於我們擁有新的外形尺寸這一事實。

Windows 7 helps, clearly.

顯然，Windows 7 提供了幫助。

You are just seeing a general positive trend on a long-term basis that was [resilient] (technical difficulty) reset.

你只是看到了一個長期的總體積極趨勢，即[彈性]（技術難度）重置。

What that's going to mean for the rest of the fiscal year -- I think you're going to continue to see good consumer demand.

這對本財年的剩餘時間意味著什麼——我認為你將繼續看到良好的消費者需求。

Clearly, that was helping last quarter.

顯然，這在上個季度有所幫助。

I think that will continue.

我認為這將繼續下去。

You're going to see good emerging market demand; that has really continued right through the last year.

您將看到良好的新興市場需求；這種情況一直持續到去年。

So there has been double-digit growth in most of the emerging markets right through the last year.

因此，直到去年，大多數新興市場都出現了兩位數的增長。

I think the consumer and developed markets will start to gradually continue to improve.

我認為消費市場和發達市場將開始逐步持續改善。

The big variable, in my mind, is business PCs.

在我看來，最大的變數是商用 PC。

Now, that's been a significant negative.

現在，這是一個重大的負面影響。

That's decreased double digits over most of the last few quarters, and it's dragged down the numbers.

在過去幾個季度的大部分時間裡，這一數字都下降了兩位數，並且拖累了數字。

That can't continue forever.

那不可能永遠持續下去。

Eventually, those PCs wear out and have to be replaced.

最終，這些 PC 會磨損並且必須更換。

So the big variable in terms of rebound is going to be the strength and speed of the business PC refresh cycle.

因此，反彈方面的最大變量將是商用 PC 更新周期的強度和速度。

We hope and expect that to be next year.

我們希望並期待那是明年。

As I said in one of the earlier calls, we're probably still relatively cautious.

正如我在之前的一次電話會議中所說，我們可能仍然相對謹慎。

But when you start to see a rebound in that plus what you're seeing on the consumer side, we feel pretty good about what PC demand is going to look like the next calendar year.

但是，當您開始看到反彈以及您在消費者方面看到的情況時，我們對下一個日曆年的 PC 需求情況感到非常滿意。

Katherine Egbert, Jefferies.

凱瑟琳·埃格伯特，傑富瑞。

Chris, in your prepared comments you talked about the US consumer demand being strong.

克里斯，在您準備好的評論中，您談到了美國消費者需求強勁。

And then you just gave some color on good emerging markets demand.

然後你只是對良好的新興市場需求進行了一些說明。

Can you talk about Europe, what you're seeing there, both on the corporate and the consumer side?

你能談談歐洲，你在企業和消費者方面看到了什麼嗎？

Europe, relatively weak, so that would probably be the weakest area on a relative basis.

歐洲相對較弱，因此這可能是相對而言最弱的地區。

So I would start with emerging markets and, in particular, China and all the major ones.

所以我會從新興市場開始，特別是中國和所有主要市場。

We are very (technical difficulty) the US recovering a bit, Europe relatively weak.

我們非常（技術難度）美國復甦了一點，歐洲相對較弱。

So that would be at the low end of our -- all the numbers that I'm seeing.

所以這將是我們所看到的所有數字的低端。

When can you expect recoveries, do you think, there?

你認為什麼時候可以恢復？

I guess, when you see an economic recovery.

我猜，當你看到經濟復甦時。

So it depends a little on how you feel about that.

所以這在一定程度上取決於你對此的感受。

Again, I think what we've said, and I'll stick with this even though it was perhaps a bit of an unexpected quarter, this quarter, is this calendar year is transitioned to next calendar year.

再一次，我認為我們已經說過，我會堅持這一點，即使這可能是一個出乎意料的季度，本季度，這個日曆年將過渡到下一個日曆年。

I feel very good about the dynamics or potential dynamics of the next calendar year.

我對下一個日曆年的動態或潛在動態感覺非常好。

As we start to see economies improve, you are seeing economic forecasters expecting economic growth next year globally and in Europe.

隨著我們開始看到經濟好轉，您會看到經濟預測者預計明年全球和歐洲的經濟增長。

You're starting to see forecasts for business spending turning (technical difficulty) people like Gartner, again, on a global basis.

您再次開始在全球範圍內看到 Gartner 等人對業務支出轉變（技術難度）的預測。

So that's going to underpin spending overall.

因此，這將支撐整體支出。

The European consumer, when they will start to get more aggressive, I really don't know.

歐洲消費者，他們什麼時候會開始變得更加激進，我真的不知道。

But I don't expect a lot for the rest of this calendar year.

但我對本日曆年剩餘時間的期望不高。

I'd start to see it improve next calendar year.

我會開始看到它在下個日曆年有所改善。

Brendan Barnicle, Pacific Crest Securities.

Brendan Barnicle，Pacific Crest 證券。

Chris, can you remind us again of when you recognize revenue on Windows in the PC cycle, in the PC supply chain cycle, and what type of lag there potentially is between the PC build and your revenue recognition?

克里斯，您能否再次提醒我們，您何時在 PC 週期、PC 供應鏈週期中確認 Windows 的收入，以及 PC 構建與您的收入確認之間可能存在何種類型的滯後？

When we sell it to the OEMs is when we recognize that.

當我們將其出售給原始設備製造商時，我們就會意識到這一點。

Now, they buy licenses in anticipation of selling PCs, obviously.

現在，很明顯，他們購買許可證是為了銷售 PC。

That can vary in terms of their supply chain as to how far in advance of when they actually make a sale they buy the license.

這在他們的供應鏈方面可能會有所不同，即他們在實際進行銷售之前購買許可證的時間。

It can vary.

它可以變化。

But it's, on average, say, a couple months, around eight weeks.

但平均來說，是幾個月，大約八週。

So people last quarter were buying licenses in anticipation of sales that they're making this quarter.

因此，上個季度人們購買許可證是為了預期他們本季度的銷售額。

And they will be buying licenses now in anticipation of Christmas, for example.

例如，他們將在聖誕節前購買許可證。

So it varies, as I say, depending on the supply chain of the entity.

因此，正如我所說，它取決於實體的供應鏈。

But on average, around eight weeks.

但平均而言，大約八週。

Tim Klasell, Thomas Weisel Partners.

蒂姆·克拉塞爾，托馬斯·韋塞爾合夥人。

Sort of a follow-up on to the prior question.

對上一個問題的跟進。

In your OEM revenue bridge you show 4% from Windows attach in inventory.

在您的 OEM 收入橋中，您顯示 4% 來自 Windows 附加庫存。

I wonder if you can give us a little bit of color on how much that 4% is attach, i.e., maybe sort of longer-term sustainable versus inventory which can be pretty volatile.

我想知道你是否可以給我們一點顏色，說明這 4% 的附加值是多少，也就是說，與可能相當不穩定的庫存相比，可能是長期可持續的。

Yes; it's about half and half.

是的;大約是一半。

It's about half what we'd describe as inventory impact, about half attach.

這大約是我們所說的庫存影響的一半，大約一半是附加的。

And on the attach side, there's two impacts there.

在附加方面，有兩個影響。

One is the continuing growth in netbooks, which have a very, very high attach rate.

一是上網本的持續增長，其附加率非常非常高。

So, as they grow slightly faster than non-netbook PCs, you see attach benefit.

因此，由於它們的增長速度略快於非上網本 PC，因此您會看到附加優勢。

And also [M&A's], the larger OEMs, we certainly see them gaining market share.

還有[併購]，更大的原始設備製造商，我們當然看到他們獲得了市場份額。

And they tend to have a higher attach rate than the system builder channel as well.

並且它們也往往具有比系統構建器渠道更高的附加率。

So we are starting to see some attach benefit from that.

所以我們開始看到一些附加的好處。

So those two attach benefits add up to about half of what we show on that line.

所以這兩個附加的好處加起來大約是我們在那條線上顯示的一半。

The other half I would put down to inventory replenishment in the channel.

另一半我會歸結為渠道中的庫存補充。

Gregg Moskowitz, Auriga.

格雷格·莫斯科維茨，禦夫座。

Chris, as you had pointed out earlier, business spending remains subdued.

克里斯，正如你之前指出的那樣，企業支出仍然低迷。

But the license-only billings mix was higher than I expected.

但是僅許可的賬單組合比我預期的要高。

And I know you had the benefit of a couple extra field days relative to the June quarter.

而且我知道相對於 6 月這個季度，你有幾個額外的實地考察日的好處。

But even adjusting for that, it showed pretty healthy sequential growth.

但即使對此進行調整，它也顯示出相當健康的連續增長。

So I was just wondering if there was anything you would point to on the business side that perhaps helped transactional billings in the quarter.

因此，我只是想知道您是否會在業務方面指出任何可能有助於本季度交易賬單的事情。

No, there's nothing specific that I would point to there.

不，我沒有什麼特別要指出的地方。

There were a couple of -- as you said, there were a couple of days of billing that we helped out of the June quarter.

正如你所說，我們在 6 月季度幫助了幾天的計費。

But then also we lost a day or two into next quarter.

但隨後我們在下個季度損失了一兩天。

So it wasn't a significant impact from that.

因此，這並沒有產生重大影響。

I would just say, generally speaking, we are seeing good adoption of our products.

我只想說，一般來說，我們看到我們的產品得到了很好的採用。

We've got a good product suite out there.

我們有一個很好的產品套件。

So I'd point to that.

所以我會指出這一點。

But there's no underlying trends that I would say were particularly positive.

但我認為沒有任何潛在趨勢是特別積極的。

As I pointed out in my commentary, really, the business cycle was very much as we expected in the quarter.

正如我在評論中指出的那樣，實際上，本季度的商業周期非常符合我們的預期。

And you have to remember that what we are seeing now is just people playing out their budgets on the corporate side that were set, let's say, in December last year, when most people were expecting the world to be very difficult through this year.

你必須記住，我們現在看到的只是人們在公司方面發揮了他們的預算，比如說，去年 12 月，當時大多數人都預計今年世界會非常艱難。

So people are just simply spending their budgets that are set, to a large extent.

所以人們在很大程度上只是簡單地花費了他們設定的預算。

And (technical difficulty) I think it's unlikely that we are going to see a rebound even in this quarter coming up.

而且（技術難度）我認為即使在本季度即將到來的情況下，我們也不太可能看到反彈。

It's only going to be next year, when people reset their budgets for next year in the next few months and perhaps start to take a slightly more optimistic view, that we start to see business spending start to pick up.

只有到明年，當人們在接下來的幾個月裡重新調整明年的預算並可能開始採取稍微樂觀的看法時，我們才會開始看到商業支出開始回升。

So no particularly positive trends that I would point to, other than the overall reaction to our product suite.

因此，除了對我們產品套件的整體反應外，我不會指出特別積極的趨勢。

It was [clearly] much as we anticipated, which was subdued during the quarter.

這 [顯然] 與我們預期的差不多，但在本季度表現不佳。

Richard Williams, Cross Research.

理查德威廉姆斯，交叉研究。

Most of my questions have been answered, but I wonder if you could give us some sense of the Windows LIVE growth rate that you expect over the next couple of quarters?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答，但我想知道您能否讓我們了解一下您對接下來幾個季度的 Windows LIVE 增長率的預期？

Windows LIVE is really going to be driven by, in particular, how we see that monetization come through, and that comes back to the strength of the overall economic recovery.

Windows LIVE 將真正受到，特別是我們如何看待貨幣化的推動，而這又回到了整體經濟復甦的力量。

I would like to think we are going to see display rates go up as we start to see the economy recover.

我想隨著我們開始看到經濟復甦，我們將看到展示率上升。

And I think you are starting to see that from us and other people.

我認為你開始從我們和其他人身上看到這一點。

Certainly, it stopped getting worse and (technical difficulty) stabilizing.

當然，它不再變得更糟並且（技術難度）趨於穩定。

I, again, would probably stick with the same basic line we've had on most things, that we'll start to see some economic improvement on that side as the economy starts to improve.

同樣，我可能會堅持我們在大多數事情上的基本路線，隨著經濟開始改善，我們將開始看到這方面的一些經濟改善。

But that's going to be next calendar year more than this calendar year, and it's probably going to be gradual.

但這將是下一個日曆年而不是這個日曆年，而且可能是漸進的。

That continues to be our base case, pretty much across the board, for all the things that drive, in particular, the business side.

對於所有驅動因素，尤其是業務方面，這仍然是我們的基本案例，幾乎是全面的。

Okay, everybody, so that will wrap up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call.

好的，每個人，這將結束今天財報電話會議的問答部分。

Remember that you can access this call on the Microsoft investor relations website at Microsoft.com/MSFT.

請記住，您可以在 Microsoft 投資者關係網站 Microsoft.com/MSFT 上訪問此電話。

Also, please keep in mind that we're holding the Professional Developers Conference in Los Angeles.

另外，請記住，我們正在洛杉磯舉行專業開發者大會。

And as part of that, we will be hosting an analyst briefing on November 18 with Ray Ozzie and Doug Hauger.

作為其中的一部分，我們將在 11 月 18 日與 Ray Ozzie 和 Doug Hauger 一起舉辦分析師簡報會。

Please contact us if you need additional details.

如果您需要更多詳細信息，請與我們聯繫。

We hope to see you there.

我們希望看到你在那裡。

Thanks again for joining us today.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。

And that concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Please disconnect your line at this time.

此時請斷開您的線路。