微軟 (MSFT) 2010 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Microsoft third-quarter fiscal year 2010 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Microsoft 2010 財年第三季度財報電話會議。

At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的電話正在錄音。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

我現在想把電話轉給先生。

Bill Koefoed, General Manager, Investor Relations.

投資者關係部總經理 Bill Koefoed。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thanks everyone for joining us this afternoon.

感謝大家今天下午加入我們。

With me today are Peter Klein, Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Chief Accounting Officer, and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.

今天和我在一起的是首席財務官 Peter Klein；首席會計官 Frank Brod 和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。

Today Peter will start with overall takeaways from the quarter.

今天，彼得將從本季度的總體情況開始。

Then I will give you the details of our performance before handing it back to Peter, who will discuss our outlook.

然後，我將向您介紹我們的表現細節，然後將其交還給彼得，他將討論我們的前景。

After that we will take your questions.

之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please note we filed our Form 10-Q this afternoon.

請注意，我們今天下午提交了表格 10-Q。

In addition we posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our remarks as well as provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，我們發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在遵循我們的評論流程，並提供 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的對賬。

You can find these documents at the Microsoft investor relations website at Microsoft.com/MSFT.

您可以在 Microsoft 投資者關係網站 Microsoft.com/MSFT 上找到這些文件。

Today's call will be webcast live and recorded.

今天的電話將進行網絡直播和錄製。

If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, any future use of the recording, and in the transcript, which will be posted on our website.

如果您提出問題，它將包含在我們的實時傳輸、錄音的任何未來使用以及記錄中，這些記錄將發佈在我們的網站上。

You can replay the call and view the transcript at the Microsoft investor relations website until April 22, 2011.

在 2011 年 4 月 22 日之前，您可以在 Microsoft 投資者關係網站上重播電話並查看記錄。

This conference call is protected by copyright law and international treaty.

本次電話會議受版權法和國際條約的保護。

Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this call or any portion of it without the expressed written permission of Microsoft may result in civil and criminal penalties.

未經 Microsoft 明確書面許可，未經授權擅自複製或分發此通話或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。

We will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。

These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the risk factors section of our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

由於今天的收益新聞稿、本次電話會議期間的評論以及我們的 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格以及其他向證券公司提交的報告和文件的風險因素部分中討論的因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異和交易委員會。

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Okay Peter, it's all yours.

好吧，彼得，這都是你的。

Good afternoon everyone.

大家下午好。

Our third-quarter results reflect our strong product momentum, continued focus on controlling costs, and the beginning stages of a return in business hardware spending.

我們第三季度的業績反映了我們強勁的產品動力、持續關注控製成本以及商業硬件支出回報的開始階段。

This quarter we generated record third-quarter revenue and operating cash flow.

本季度我們創造了創紀錄的第三季度收入和經營現金流。

In addition, as a result of revenue growth and our ongoing focus on cost management, when adjusting for the impact of the tech guarantee programs this year, we had our third consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin expansion.

此外，由於收入增長和我們對成本管理的持續關注，在調整今年技術保障計劃的影響時，我們的利潤率連續第三個季度同比增長。

Strong demand for Windows 7 is a primary contributor to our performance.

對 Windows 7 的強勁需求是我們業績的主要貢獻者。

As evidence of that strong demand, both internal and external checks show that over 10% of all PCs worldwide are already running Windows 7.

作為這種強勁需求的證據，內部和外部檢查都表明，全球超過 10% 的 PC 已經在運行 Windows 7。

While reaching this level of penetration in six months qualifies Windows 7 as our fastest selling operating system ever, it also illustrates how much opportunity still remains.

雖然在 6 個月內達到這一滲透率水平使 Windows 7 成為我們有史以來最暢銷的操作系統，但它也說明了仍有多少機會。

As I have met with investors, I've commented on the tremendous product momentum we have, which was evidenced this quarter across all our businesses.

當我與投資者會面時，我對我們擁有的巨大產品動力發表了評論，這在本季度我們所有的業務中都得到了證明。

Bing achieved 10 consecutive months of market share growth since its launch.

自推出以來，必應實現了連續 10 個月的市場份額增長。

And both the US Department of Justice and the European Commission cleared our search agreement with Yahoo!

美國司法部和歐盟委員會都批准了我們與雅虎的搜索協議！

Azure, our cloud development platform, became commercially available in 41 countries.

我們的雲開發平台 Azure 在 41 個國家/地區上市。

In the mobile space we announced Windows Phone 7 and Kin.

在移動領域，我們發布了 Windows Phone 7 和 Kin。

And last Friday we released Office 2010 to manufacturing and are looking forward to its launch in June.

上週五，我們向製造業發布了 Office 2010，並期待它在 6 月發布。

All of this was achieved while continuing to focus on managing costs and prioritizing our investments.

所有這些都是在繼續專注於管理成本和優先考慮我們的投資的同時實現的。

As a result, we delivered operating income and earnings per share growth ahead of revenue growth, with earnings per share up 36% over last year.

因此，我們在收入增長之前實現了營業收入和每股收益的增長，每股收益比去年增長了 36%。

We also returned $3.1 billion of cash to investors through dividends and stock repurchases.

我們還通過股息和股票回購向投資者返還了 31 億美元現金。

So in summary, I am pleased with our continuing performance this quarter.

總而言之，我對我們本季度的持續表現感到滿意。

We had great momentum with current products in market, we have a very exciting pipeline of new products to come, and we continued to deliver strong financial results.

我們目前的產品在市場上勢頭強勁，我們有一系列令人興奮的新產品即將推出，我們繼續提供強勁的財務業績。

I'll now hand the call back to Bill to give you some additional details on the quarter, and then come back and provide some thoughts on our outlook for our fourth quarter and the next fiscal year.

我現在將電話轉回給比爾，向您提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息，然後再回來就我們對第四季度和下一財年的展望提供一些想法。

Thanks Peter.

謝謝彼得。

As I review this quarter's performance, keep in mind that all growth comparisons relate to the corresponding quarter of last year unless I specify otherwise.

當我回顧本季度的表現時，請記住，除非我另有說明，否則所有增長比較都與去年的相應季度有關。

As Peter said, we had another strong quarter.

正如彼得所說，我們有另一個強勁的季度。

Overall, GAAP revenue grew 6% to $14.5 billion.

總體而言，GAAP 收入增長 6% 至 145 億美元。

During the quarter we deferred $305 million of revenue related to the Microsoft Office 2010 Technology Guarantee program.

在本季度，我們推遲了與 Microsoft Office 2010 技術保證計劃相關的 3.05 億美元收入。

Adjusting for this amount, revenue would have been $14.8 billion, 8% growth over the prior-year period.

調整這一數額後，收入將達到 148 億美元，比去年同期增長 8%。

GAAP operating income grew 17% year-over-year, while EPS grew 36%.

GAAP 營業收入同比增長 17%，而每股收益增長 36%。

Operating cash flow this quarter was $7.4 billion, an all-time record for the company.

本季度的經營現金流為 74 億美元，創下該公司的歷史新高。

Foreign exchange had a positive impact to revenue of about $200 million this quarter.

外匯對本季度約 2 億美元的收入產生了積極影響。

In terms of overall revenue mix, geographically emerging markets grew more than 20%, while mature markets grew mid-single digits.

就整體收入組合而言，新興市場增長超過 20%，而成熟市場增長中個位數。

While consumer demand continued to be strong, we saw renewed strength from small and midmarket customers with year-over-year growth of more than 15%.

儘管消費者需求繼續強勁，但我們看到中小型市場客戶再次表現強勁，同比增長超過 15%。

Within the enterprise customer segment, we saw the beginning of a recovery in IT hardware spend, but as we've discussed on past calls, we continued to see lengthened sales cycles.

在企業客戶群中，我們看到 IT 硬件支出開始復蘇，但正如我們在過去的電話會議中所討論的，我們繼續看到銷售週期延長。

Enterprise agreement renewal rates, taking into consideration the extended sales cycles, are within our historical range.

考慮到延長的銷售週期，企業協議續訂率在我們的歷史範圍內。

Unearned revenue was $12.3 billion, down sequentially, as is typical, but better than last year's seasonal trend, and roughly flat year-over-year.

未實現收入為 123 億美元，環比下降，這是典型的，但好於去年的季節性趨勢，同比基本持平。

Our unearned revenue balance would have been up more than $100 million or 1% year-over-year when considering the recognition of undelivered elements, primarily associated with our prior Windows XP sales and the revenue deferral from our Office 2010 Technology Guarantee program.

考慮到主要與我們之前的 Windows XP 銷售和 Office 2010 技術保證計劃的收入遞延相關的未交付元素的確認，我們的未實現收入餘額將比去年同期增加超過 1 億美元或 1%。

Multiyear annuity billings were up mid-single digits year over year.

多年年金賬單同比增長中個位數。

This quarter's growth from volume licensing is beginning to offset the unearned revenue declines we have seen over the past several quarters as we rebuild our unearned balance.

本季度批量許可帶來的增長開始抵消我們在過去幾個季度中看到的未實現收入下降，因為我們正在重建我們的未實現餘額。

Now for the PC market.

現在針對PC市場。

Windows 7 and innovation from our OEM partners continued to fuel demand for PCs.

Windows 7 和我們 OEM 合作夥伴的創新繼續推動對 PC 的需求。

We estimate the PC market grew roughly 25% year-over-year.

我們估計個人電腦市場同比增長約 25%。

Within that, we estimate consumer PCs grew almost 30%, while business PCs grew 14%.

其中，我們估計消費 PC 增長了近 30%，而商用 PC 增長了 14%。

This quarter netbooks represented approximately 10% of the total PC market.

本季度上網本約佔整個 PC 市場的 10%。

Let's move on to this quarter's performance by business group, beginning with the Windows & Windows Live divisions, which had another exceptional quarter.

讓我們繼續按業務集團劃分本季度的表現，從 Windows 和 Windows Live 部門開始，該部門又有一個出色的季度。

We continued to see very strong consumer demand for Windows, with consumer license growth up 35%.

我們繼續看到消費者對 Windows 的需求非常強勁，消費者許可證增長了 35%。

We also saw a return in demand for business PCs, with licenses up more than 15%, leading us to believe the business PC refresh cycle has begun.

我們還看到對商用 PC 的需求有所回升，許可證增長超過 15%，這使我們相信商用 PC 更新周期已經開始。

OEM units increased 30% year-over-year and outpaced PC shipments.

OEM 單位同比增長 30%，超過 PC 出貨量。

OEM revenue increased 29% for the second quarter in a row, and also outpaced the PC market.

OEM 收入連續第二季度增長 29%，也超過了 PC 市場。

As with prior quarters, we've included a slide that bridges the difference between the PC market growth and OEM revenue growth.

與前幾個季度一樣，我們添加了一張幻燈片，將 PC 市場增長與 OEM 收入增長之間的差異聯繫起來。

We experienced a 9 percentage point headwind, primarily caused by emerging markets outpacing mature markets, and consumer outpacing business.

我們經歷了 9 個百分點的逆風，主要是由於新興市場超過了成熟市場，以及消費者超過了業務。

Windows attach and inventory drove 8 percentage points of OEM revenue growth.

Windows 附加和庫存推動了 OEM 收入增長 8 個百分點。

Conditions from the prior quarter remained largely unchanged, with inventory exiting the quarter at normal levels.

上一季度的情況基本保持不變，本季度庫存處於正常水平。

Windows 7 upsell and channel dynamics drove 5 percentage points of OEM revenue growth, reflecting adoption of Windows 7 on netbooks and adoption of premium versions of Windows 7 on business and consumer PCs.

Windows 7 追加銷售和渠道動態推動了 OEM 收入增長 5 個百分點，這反映了上網本採用 Windows 7 以及商業和消費 PC 採用 Windows 7 高級版本。

The commercial, retail, and online portion of the Windows division grew 26%, primarily driven by retail sales of Windows 7.

Windows 部門的商業、零售和在線部分增長了 26%，主要受 Windows 7 零售銷售的推動。

Now let's move to server and tools.

現在讓我們轉向服務器和工具。

We estimate server hardware shipments strengthened considerably, with year-over-year growth in the high teens.

我們估計服務器硬件出貨量大幅增長，同比增長在十幾歲。

The OEM and license-only revenue, which represents 30% of the business, grew high single digits, an improvement from prior quarters.

佔業務 30% 的 OEM 和僅限許可的收入增長了高個位數，比前幾個季度有所改善。

Within that, Windows Server revenue grew midteens, while SQL Server and developer tools experienced slower growth in front of new product launches.

其中，Windows Server 收入增長了 10 年左右，而 SQL Server 和開發人員工具在新產品發布前經歷了較慢的增長。

Annuity revenue, which is approximately 50% of the business, was roughly flat.

年金收入（約佔業務的 50%）基本持平。

Enterprise services grew 5%.

企業服務增長 5%。

Our virtualization solutions continue to be strong.

我們的虛擬化解決方案繼續強大。

System Center Server revenue grew over 20%, and Windows Server Premium mix remains over 20% this year.

System Center Server 收入增長超過 20%，Windows Server Premium 組合今年仍保持在 20% 以上。

Additionally, our share of new x86 virtualization licenses, which includes Hyper-V and Virtual Server, is now 25%, up 3 points year over year in the December quarter, according to IDC.

此外，根據 IDC 的數據，我們在新的 x86 虛擬化許可證（包括 Hyper-V 和虛擬服務器）中的份額現在為 25%，在 12 月季度同比增長 3 個百分點。

We released to manufacturing Digital Studio 2010, announced a new partnership with Citrix that furthers our desktop virtualization offering, and yesterday we released to manufacturing SQL Server 2008 R2.

我們發布了用於製造的 Digital Studio 2010，宣布與 Citrix 建立新的合作夥伴關係以進一步推進我們的桌面虛擬化產品，昨天我們發布了用於製造的 SQL Server 2008 R2。

Clearly there is very strong product pipeline in server and tools.

顯然，在服務器和工具方面有非常強大的產品線。

Now for the online services division.

現在是在線服務部門。

Online advertising revenue grew 19%, primarily driven by search, which outperforms the market.

在線廣告收入增長 19%，主要受搜索驅動，其表現優於市場。

We continue to be enthused with Bing's momentum, which includes 10 consecutive months of share gains in the US.

我們繼續對 Bing 的勢頭充滿熱情，其中包括連續 10 個月在美國的股價上漲。

We ended the quarter with US query share of 11.7%, according to comScore, 340 basis points higher than when we launched Bing last May.

根據 comScore 的數據，我們在本季度末的美國查詢份額為 11.7%，比我們去年 5 月推出 Bing 時高出 340 個基點。

The Yahoo!

雅虎！

search partnership implementation is underway, and we are working toward US completion by the end of this calendar year and global completion by early calendar year 2012.

搜索合作夥伴關係的實施正在進行中，我們正在努力爭取在本日曆年年底前在美國完成，並在 2012 年年初在全球完成。

Moving on to the Microsoft business division.

轉到微軟業務部門。

In general, the conditions from last quarter remain unchanged.

總體而言，上一季度的情況保持不變。

Revenue was down 6%, but when adjusted for the Office 2010 Technology Guarantee deferral of $305 million, revenue was up 1%.

收入下降了 6%，但根據 Office 2010 技術保證延期 3.05 億美元進行調整後，收入增長了 1%。

Within MBD business revenue was down 1%.

MBD內的業務收入下降了1%。

As we have discussed previously, the non-annuity component of business revenue has been pressured in advance of the next product cycle, while annuity revenue was roughly flat.

正如我們之前所討論的，業務收入的非年金部分在下一個產品週期之前就已經受到壓力，而年金收入則大致持平。

Consumer revenue, which includes the OEM and retail portions of this business, increased 11% when adjusting for the Technology Guarantee and was primarily due to strong PC shipments.

消費者收入（包括該業務的 OEM 和零售部分）在調整技術保證後增長了 11%，主要是由於 PC 出貨量強勁。

Last Friday we released to manufacturing Office 2010 and SharePoint 2010.

上週五，我們發布了生產 Office 2010 和 SharePoint 2010。

We expect commercial availability in May, with general availability in June.

我們預計 5 月上市，6 月全面上市。

With respect to the $305 million tech guarantee deferral, it's important to note that due to varying international availability and fulfillment dates, there will be puts and takes to the unearned revenue balance throughout Q4.

關於 3.05 億美元的技術擔保延期，重要的是要注意，由於國際可用性和履行日期不同，整個第四季度的未實現收入餘額都會出現看跌期權。

However, the tech guarantee deferral balance is expected to remain roughly unchanged at the end of Q4.

然而，技術擔保延期餘額預計將在第四季度末大致保持不變。

We expect that substantially all of the tech guarantee unearned revenue balance will be recognized in the second quarter of fiscal year 2011.

我們預計，在 2011 財年第二季度，幾乎所有的技術保證未實現收入餘額都將得到確認。

During the quarter we made terrific progress in our cloud offering.

在本季度，我們在雲產品方面取得了巨大進展。

Customers such as Starbucks, McDonald's, GlaxoSmithKline, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Aviva, and Swedish Red Cross are all going to the cloud with Microsoft.

星巴克、麥當勞、葛蘭素史克、可口可樂企業、英傑華和瑞典紅十字會等客戶都在與微軟一起上雲。

We now have 40 million paid seats of our commercial online services.

我們現在擁有 4000 萬個付費商業在線服務席位。

Clearly companies are choosing Microsoft for their cloud productivity solutions, and we intend to build on this momentum.

顯然，公司正在選擇微軟作為他們的雲生產力解決方案，我們打算在這一勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。

Now let's move on to the entertainment and devices division.

現在讓我們繼續討論娛樂和設備部門。

Gaming revenue declined 4%, as we sold 1.5 million consoles, a unit decline of 12%, which was roughly in line with the overall market.

遊戲收入下降 4%，因為我們售出了 150 萬台遊戲機，單位下降 12%，與整體市場基本一致。

While our software attach rate continued to lead the industry at 8.8, first party software revenue declined, based on difficult comparisons to the prior-year launch of Halo Wars.

雖然我們的軟件附加率繼續以 8.8 領先於行業，但基於與上一年發布的 Halo Wars 的艱難比較，第一方軟件收入有所下降。

This was substantially offset by the continuing strong revenue and membership growth of Xbox LIVE.

這被 Xbox LIVE 持續強勁的收入和會員增長所抵消。

Non-gaming revenue was up 14%, reflecting growth in the PC hardware market and increased Windows embedded revenue.

非遊戲收入增長 14%，反映了 PC 硬件市場的增長和 Windows 嵌入式收入的增長。

As Peter mentioned, we continued to have good momentum on the product side for mobile.

正如彼得所說，我們在移動產品方面繼續保持良好勢頭。

During the quarter we announced Windows Phone 7, and last week we announced Kin, which will be available in the US in May.

在本季度，我們發布了 Windows Phone 7，上週我們發布了 Kin，它將於 5 月在美國上市。

Now for the rest of the income statement.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。

Cost of goods sold decreased 2% to $2.8 billion, driven primarily by lower Xbox 360 volume and console costs.

銷售成本下降 2% 至 28 億美元，主要受 Xbox 360 銷量和遊戲機成本下降的推動。

These savings were partially offset by increased traffic acquisition and online costs.

這些節省被增加的流量獲取和在線成本部分抵消。

Operating expenses were $6.6 billion, as we continued to manage our expenses and prioritize our investment.

運營費用為 66 億美元，因為我們繼續管理費用並優先考慮我們的投資。

Headcount declined both year-over-year and sequentially.

員工人數同比和環比均有所下降。

D&A expenses grew due to contractual costs associated with our Yahoo!

由於與我們的 Yahoo! 相關的合同成本，D&A 費用增加了

search partnership and legal expenses.

搜索夥伴關係和法律費用。

We repurchased $2 billion worth of shares and paid $1.1 billion of dividends.

我們回購了價值 20 億美元的股票並支付了 11 億美元的股息。

So to wrap up, the consumer segment continued to drive great results.

因此，總而言之，消費者細分市場繼續取得巨大成果。

In addition, we saw the beginning of the business PC refresh.

此外，我們還看到了商用 PC 更新的開始。

This, combined with our strong product pipeline and our continued focus on execution and cost management, means we are well-positioned for the future.

這與我們強大的產品線以及我們對執行和成本管理的持續關注相結合，意味著我們為未來做好了準備。

With that I'll hand it back to Peter, who is going to discuss our business outlook.

有了這個，我會把它交還給彼得，他將討論我們的業務前景。

Thanks Bill.

謝謝比爾。

Now I'll discuss our expectations for our fourth quarter and the next fiscal year.

現在我將討論我們對第四季度和下一財年的預期。

From a macro perspective, we expect the next quarter to be similar to the third quarter, with continued strength in hardware shipments.

從宏觀上看，我們預計下一季度與三季度相似，硬件出貨量將持續走強。

We were encouraged by the recent uptick in business PC growth and expect that this business refresh cycle will continue over a couple of years.

我們對最近商用 PC 增長的回升感到鼓舞，並預計此業務更新周期將持續數年。

Before I get into my commentary by division, remember that the June quarter is the close of our fiscal year.

在我按部門進行評論之前，請記住，六月季度是我們財政年度的結束。

As such, it is historically a seasonal high for our enterprise sales.

因此，對於我們的企業銷售而言，這在歷史上是一個季節性的高點。

And we are entering it with a strong sales pipeline.

我們正在以強大的銷售渠道進入它。

While we've noted early signs of improvement, the business spending environment and associated sales cycles remain challenging.

雖然我們注意到了改善的早期跡象，但商業支出環境和相關的銷售週期仍然充滿挑戰。

We will be very focused on closing deals during the quarter, and we expect that unearned revenue will likely return to normal seasonal patterns.

我們將非常專注於在本季度完成交易，我們預計未賺取的收入可能會恢復到正常的季節性模式。

Beginning with the Windows division, we expect revenue to grow slightly faster than the overall PC market in the fourth quarter.

從 Windows 部門開始，我們預計第四季度收入的增長將略快於整體 PC 市場。

Attach, inventory and premium mix gain should more than offset macro trends, particularly that of emerging markets growing faster than mature markets.

附加值、庫存和溢價組合收益應足以抵消宏觀趨勢，尤其是新興市場增長快於成熟市場的趨勢。

Turning to the Microsoft business division, we are very excited about the launch of Office 2010 this June, as it will provide the best productivity experience across the PC, phone and browser.

談到微軟業務部門，我們對今年 6 月推出的 Office 2010 感到非常興奮，因為它將提供跨 PC、手機和瀏覽器的最佳生產力體驗。

The combination of Office 2010, SharePoint 2010, Exchange 2010, and Office Communications Server will be the practical platform for IT, delivering anywhere access to your document and unmatched collaboration.

Office 2010、SharePoint 2010、Exchange 2010 和 Office Communications Server 的組合將成為 IT 的實用平台，提供對文檔的任何地方訪問和無與倫比的協作。

For the fourth quarter, consumer and business non-annuity revenue, approximately 40% of the total, should track towards PC shipment growth, while we expect annuity revenue to be up low single digits.

對於第四季度，消費者和企業非年金收入（約佔總收入的 40%）應該會跟隨 PC 出貨量增長，而我們預計年金收入將增長低個位數。

The server and tools business generally aligns with server hardware shipments and business IT spending.

服務器和工具業務通常與服務器硬件出貨量和業務 IT 支出保持一致。

Similar to many observers, we expect server shipments to show healthy year-over-year growth.

與許多觀察家類似，我們預計服務器出貨量將呈現健康的同比增長。

In the fourth quarter we expect that non-annuity revenue should move generally in line with hardware shipments.

在第四季度，我們預計非年金收入應與硬件出貨量大體保持一致。

Annuity revenue should grow mid single digits, while enterprise services revenue should grow low single digits.

年金收入應增長中個位數，而企業服務收入應增長低個位數。

For the online services division, the outlook for online advertising appears to be improving, and we expect the trends from the third quarter to continue.

對於在線服務部門，在線廣告的前景似乎正在改善，我們預計第三季度的趨勢將繼續。

Excluding the impact of our legacy access business, revenue should be in line with or better than the market for the fourth quarter.

排除我們傳統接入業務的影響，第四季度收入應該與市場一致或更好。

In the entertainment and devices division, we maintain our view expressed last earnings call that full-year revenue should be roughly flat relative to the prior year.

在娛樂和設備部門，我們維持上次財報電話會議所表達的觀點，即全年收入應與上一年大致持平。

This translates into a fairly robust growth rate for the fourth quarter, driven by the uplift from the strong PC market, increased gaming attach revenue, and momentum in Windows embedded.

這意味著第四季度的增長率相當強勁，這得益於強勁的個人電腦市場的提振、遊戲附加收入的增加以及 Windows Embedded 的發展勢頭。

Switching to costs, we continued to make good progress containing our cost of goods sold, despite the upward pressures of increased traffic acquisition costs in our search business and growth of our online services.

轉向成本，儘管我們的搜索業務的流量獲取成本增加和我們的在線服務增長面臨上行壓力，但我們繼續在控制我們的銷售成本方面取得良好進展。

As a result of our operational initiatives, improved Xbox 360 console costs, and a continuing favorable revenue mix, we now expect full-year gross margin to expand 1% compared to the prior year.

由於我們的運營計劃、改進的 Xbox 360 遊戲機成本以及持續有利的收入組合，我們現在預計全年毛利率將比上一年增長 1%。

With regard to operating expenses, we remain focused on diligently managing our cost structure and aligning resources to key priorities.

在運營費用方面，我們仍然專注於努力管理我們的成本結構並將資源與關鍵優先事項保持一致。

For the full year we are lowering our operating expense guidance, now expected to be between $26.1 billion and $26.3 billion.

對於全年，我們正在降低我們的運營費用指導，目前預計在 261 億美元至 263 億美元之間。

We estimate that our capital spending for the year will be no more than $2 billion, and our effective tax rate should be approximately 25% for both the quarter and the year.

我們估計，我們今年的資本支出將不超過 20 億美元，我們的有效稅率在本季度和年度均應約為 25%。

We will continue to generate strong free cash flow and will return capital to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases over the long run, though the amount of repurchases may vary from quarter to quarter.

從長遠來看，我們將繼續產生強勁的自由現金流，並將通過股息和股票回購向股東返還資本，儘管回購的數量可能因季度而異。

Now I'd like to spend a few minutes looking ahead to fiscal year 2011, with more details to follow at our financial analyst meeting in July.

現在我想花幾分鐘時間展望一下 2011 財年，更多細節將在 7 月份的金融分析師會議上公佈。

From a macro perspective, we expect the business refresh cycle that I referenced earlier will continue through fiscal year 2011.

從宏觀角度來看，我們預計我之前提到的業務更新周期將持續到 2011 財年。

This, combined with strong momentum from Windows 7 and the launches of Office 2010, SharePoint 2010, and SQL Server 2008 R2, will be significant revenue drivers for our core businesses.

這與 Windows 7 的強勁勢頭以及 Office 2010、SharePoint 2010 和 SQL Server 2008 R2 的發布相結合，將成為我們核心業務的重要收入驅動因素。

Switching to online, we expect the online advertising market to be better than fiscal year 2010.

轉向在線，我們預計在線廣告市場將好於 2010 財年。

Our business should continue to grow faster than the market, excluding our legacy access business, which will be less of a headwind as it becomes a smaller portion of the mix.

我們的業務應該會繼續以快於市場的速度增長，不包括我們的傳統訪問業務，因為它在組合中所佔的比例較小，因此阻力將較小。

We expect our partnership with Yahoo!

我們期待與雅虎合作！

will begin to contribute to our revenue in the second half of that fiscal year.

將在該財政年度的下半年開始為我們的收入做出貢獻。

Lastly, the entertainment and devices division will be introducing an unprecedented wave of innovation in the first half of the year, including Natal and its launch title, as well as Halo Reach, Stable 3, and Windows Phone 7.

最後，娛樂和設備部門將在今年上半年推出前所未有的創新浪潮，包括 Natal 及其首發產品，以及 Halo Reach、Stable 3 和 Windows Phone 7。

Now moving to cost of goods sold.

現在轉向銷售商品成本。

It's important to consider the shift of revenue mix across software, services and hardware.

重要的是要考慮軟件、服務和硬件之間收入組合的轉變。

While there are a number of factors to weigh for next year, the single largest variable driving cost of goods sold will be hardware demand in the Xbox business.

雖然明年有許多因素需要權衡，但銷售商品的最大可變驅動成本將是 Xbox 業務的硬件需求。

Additionally, we will continue to pursue operational efficiency, as we have throughout this year.

此外，我們將繼續追求運營效率，就像我們今年全年所做的那樣。

Switching to operating expenses, we are currently working through our budgeting process and maintain our outlook of $27.0 billion to $27.5 billion.

轉向運營費用，我們目前正在製定預算流程，並將我們的前景維持在 270 億美元至 275 億美元之間。

All of this will allow us to continue to generate exceptional operating cash flow, which we will continue to return to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases.

所有這些都將使我們能夠繼續產生卓越的經營現金流，我們將繼續通過股息和股票回購來回報股東。

So in summary, we delivered very good financial results for the quarter, with strong demand for Windows 7 driving revenue growth, and solid cost management enabling operating income and earnings per share to grow even faster.

因此，總而言之，我們在本季度取得了非常好的財務業績，對 Windows 7 的強勁需求推動了收入增長，而穩健的成本管理使營業收入和每股收益增長得更快。

As we look forward we are encouraged by improving market conditions taking shape as we continue to launch our strongest wave of products in the company's history.

展望未來，隨著我們繼續推出公司歷史上最強勁的產品浪潮，不斷改善的市場條件使我們感到鼓舞。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bill and answer some of your questions.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給比爾並回答你的一些問題。

Thanks Peter.

謝謝彼得。

We want to get to questions from as many of you as possible, so please stick to one question and avoid long or multipart questions.

我們希望從盡可能多的人那裡得到問題，所以請堅持一個問題，避免冗長或多部分的問題。

Barb, can you please go ahead and repeat your instructions?

Barb，你能繼續重複你的指示嗎？

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Heather Bellini, ISI.

希瑟·貝里尼，ISI。

I was wondering if you could talk about your comment about a return to normal seasonality in unearned revenue.

我想知道您是否可以談談您對未賺取收入恢復正常季節性的評論。

I guess what I'm wondering is, we had the tech guarantee benefit Q3 deferred, so when we are looking, if normal seasonality were to happen in Q4, are we taking the Q3 ending balance and thinking about it that way?

我想我想知道的是，我們推遲了第三季度的技術保證福利，所以當我們尋找時，如果第四季度發生正常的季節性，我們是否會考慮第三季度的期末餘額並以這種方式考慮？

Or should we be thinking about adjustments for the tech guarantee?

還是我們應該考慮調整技術保證？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

Take it as it is.

照原樣接受。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Walter Pritchard, Citigroup.

花旗集團的沃爾特·普里查德。

Could you guys talk about on the server side, it looks like non-annuity revenue grew a little bit slower than server units.

你們能談談服務器方面的問題嗎，看起來非年金收入的增長速度比服務器單位要慢一些。

And I guess you're seeing an uplift in version mix there, which should be helping the situation.

而且我猜你看到那裡的版本組合有所提升，這應該有助於這種情況。

Just curious to get some more detail on that, as well as what you think we should see looking forward into June and beyond.

只是想了解更多細節，以及您認為我們應該在 6 月及以後看到的內容。

Yes.

是的。

You have to break it down in [sections].

您必須將其分解為[部分]。

You have to break it down into its components.

你必須把它分解成它的組成部分。

There's actually two pieces of the non-annuity business or the transactional business, the Windows Server piece and then the other pieces of the business.

實際上有兩部分非年金業務或交易業務，Windows Server 部分和其他業務部分。

The Windows Server non-annuity piece actually grew midteens, so tracked towards the hardware market.

Windows Server 非年金產品實際上增長了 10 年，因此被跟踪到硬件市場。

The other products, things like SQL Server and Visual Studio, grew slower than that in anticipation of a product release (technical difficulty) coming out.

其他產品，如 SQL Server 和 Visual Studio，增長速度比預期產品發布（技術難度）要慢。

So it tends to be less correlated, particularly in quarters where there is a significant growth year over year.

因此，它的相關性往往較低，尤其是在同比顯著增長的季度。

So that was the issue there.

這就是那裡的問題。

In terms of looking forward, I think we gave the guidance on what we expect for the transactional business, particularly as we launch Visual Studio and SQL Server, tracking more towards the server hardware market.

在展望方面，我認為我們對交易業務的期望給出了指導，特別是在我們推出 Visual Studio 和 SQL Server 時，更多地跟踪服務器硬件市場。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Adam Holt, Morgan Stanley.

亞當霍爾特，摩根士丹利。

My question is about Office.

我的問題是關於辦公室的。

As we near the release, I was hoping you could talk to us about how you're thinking about what the impact should be, what you think about with respect to the average selling price opportunity around Office, and in particular also, you mentioned transactional revenue for the next quarter.

當我們接近發佈時，我希望你能與我們談談你對影響的看法，你對 Office 的平均售價機會的看法，特別是你提到的交易下一季度的收入。

Should we assume that transactional revenue continues to accelerate as we get deeper into the Office cycle?

我們是否應該假設隨著我們深入 Office 週期，交易收入會繼續加速？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Let me take your last question first.

讓我先回答你的最後一個問題。

Certainly as we've said, we expect the largest part of the impact from the launch actually to happen in fiscal year '11.

當然，正如我們所說，我們預計發布的最大部分影響實際上將發生在 11 財年。

So typically what you'd see -- since we are launching it in the May/June time frame, typically what you'd see is several quarters after that the impact of that.

所以通常你會看到 - 因為我們是在 5 月/ 6 月的時間範圍內推出它，所以你會看到的通常是在那之後的幾個季度。

So you should see that in the first half of fiscal year '11.

所以你應該在 11 財年的上半年看到這一點。

It terms of average selling price, it's a little hard to talk about that now.

就平均售價而言，現在有點難以談論。

It's going to be a function of obviously mix, but I would just think about it the way the Office 2007 launch was.

這顯然是一個混合功能，但我只是想 Office 2007 發布的方式。

The one thing I would add to that, where you will see it is in the platform side of the business.

我要補充的一件事是，您會在業務的平台方面看到它。

So when you see the enterprise [CAL] and how we monetize the enterprise versions of the productivity infrastructure for SharePoint on Exchange is where you'll see opportunities for overall revenue growth from an ASP perspective, for [MBDL] up.

因此，當您看到企業 [CAL] 以及我們如何將 SharePoint on Exchange 的企業版生產力基礎架構貨幣化時，您將從 ASP 的角度看到總體收入增長的機會，[MBDL] 向上。

Terrific, thank you.

太棒了，謝謝。

Sarah Friar, Goldman Sachs.

莎拉·弗萊爾，高盛。

Peter, on the cost side you highlighted this great expansion that you've seen as you've -- you're starting to reap the benefits of those cost controls that you took a few -- about a year ago.

彼得，在成本方面，您強調了您所看到的這種巨大的擴張——您開始從大約一年前採取的那些成本控制中獲益。

As you look out to Q4, your guidance would suggest actually a sequential decline in the operating margin, and yet you should be hitting pretty strong product cycles still on Windows and Office beginning to come into the mix.

當您展望第四季度時，您的指導實際上表明營業利潤率會連續下降，但您應該會在 Windows 和 Office 開始進入組合時達到相當強勁的產品週期。

Why wouldn't we get more margin expansion in Q4?

為什麼我們不會在第四季度獲得更多的利潤增長？

And then as you look at fiscal '11 costs, what are the puts and takes of why costs go up versus what other measures you can do to keep them down?

然後，當您查看 11 財年的成本時，成本上升的原因是什麼，而您可以採取哪些其他措施來降低成本？

The biggest thing driving the Q4 expenses is revenue driven expenses that are associated with primarily our enterprise annuity business, which are going to be up a fair amount, both sequentially and year-over-year.

推動第四季度支出的最大因素是收入驅動的支出，這些支出主要與我們的企業年金業務相關，無論是環比還是同比都將出現相當大的增長。

So that's the biggest thing you will see in Q4.

所以這是你將在第四季度看到的最重要的事情。

The other thing you'll see in Q4 is, as I talked about, the wave of product launches that we've got coming, including Office 2010 and SQL Server.

正如我所說，您將在第四季度看到的另一件事是我們即將推出的產品浪潮，包括 Office 2010 和 SQL Server。

So it's just -- what's happening this quarter is sort of -- not unique, but those are the things that are really driving what you're seeing in Q4.

所以這只是 - 本季度發生的事情有點 - 不是獨一無二的，但這些才是真正推動你在第四季度看到的事情。

And of course those have been embedded in our guidance all year long, and the fact of the matter is, we've been -- in trying to manage our costs as softly as possible and bring it down whenever we can, which we did this quarter.

當然，這些都嵌入了我們全年的指導中，事實上，我們一直在嘗試盡可能溫和地管理我們的成本並儘可能降低成本，我們做到了這一點四分之一。

The dynamics in FY '11, as you note, there's a lot of puts and takes, and we're always prioritizing and aligning our investments.

正如您所指出的，11 財年的動態有很多看跌期權，我們總是優先考慮和調整我們的投資。

But all up, you should think the things that are driving it are similar.

但總而言之，你應該認為推動它的東西是相似的。

There's some revenue-driven as we continue to grow revenue, and there's also some sales and marketing associated with some key launches that we will have, particularly in the first half of the year related to the consumer businesses, like Natal and phone.

隨著我們繼續增加收入，有一些收入驅動，還有一些與我們將要進行的一些關鍵發布相關的銷售和營銷，特別是在今年上半年與消費者業務相關的，比如 Natal 和電話。

And I would say, keep in mind that is a pretty measured increase of only 3% to 5% for the full year.

我會說，請記住，全年僅增長 3% 到 5% 是相當可觀的增長。

Great, thanks for the color.

太好了，謝謝你的顏色。

Brent Thill, UBS.

瑞銀的布倫特希爾。

Peter, considering the strength of the product cycle and the uptick we are seeing in corporate spend, it's still surprising to hear about lengthening sales cycles, and I think the unearned was below the Street estimates.

彼得，考慮到產品週期的強度和我們在企業支出中看到的上升，聽到延長銷售週期仍然令人驚訝，而且我認為不勞而獲低於華爾街的估計。

What are customers citing the reasons why they are not pre-signing up?

客戶引用了他們沒有預先註冊的原因是什麼？

Are they just waiting for all these products to be launched before they're renewing?

他們是否只是在等待所有這些產品推出後才進行更新？

Or are they -- just trying to get our hands around what you're hearing from the customer base.

或者他們 - 只是試圖讓我們了解您從客戶群那裡聽到的內容。

There's a couple of things.

有幾件事。

One, that is true, particularly when there's so many products that are launching, so there's a bunch of revenue that's going to come through on the non-annuity side that people are waiting for launches for.

一個，這是真的，特別是當有這麼多產品正在推出時，所以會有很多收入將來自人們等待推出的非年金方面。

And I do think that hardware -- if you think about what's happened over the last year, the first thing that got hit and decreased earliest and fastest was hardware, and that's what's coming back first.

我確實認為硬件——如果你想想去年發生的事情，首先受到打擊和減少的最早和最快的是硬件，這就是首先回來的東西。

I think that over time, as we've been saying -- and I think most other people are saying -- over the course of calendar 2010 and certainly into 2011 you'll start to see the growth in the overall IT spend.

我認為隨著時間的推移，正如我們一直在說的那樣——我認為大多數其他人都在說——在 2010 年日曆期間，當然到 2011 年，您將開始看到整體 IT 支出的增長。

For us in particular, from a sales cycle perspective, Q4 is just seasonally our biggest quarter.

特別是對我們來說，從銷售週期的角度來看，第四季度只是季節性的我們最大的季度。

So when you combine the sales cycle and the product cycle, kind of converging on Q4 and beyond, as well as where we are I think in the stage of what businesses are doing in terms of first refreshing their hardware, that kind of converges over the next two or three quarters probably.

因此，當您將銷售週期和產品週期結合起來時，在第四季度及以後，以及我們在第一次更新硬件方面正在做什麼階段，我認為這種融合在可能接下來的兩三個季度。

Thanks.

謝謝。

John DiFucci, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰·迪福奇。

Peter, I have a question on the Windows business.

彼得，我有一個關於 Windows 業務的問題。

It looks like on slide 11 you've got about 8% benefit from the Windows attach and inventory, and I am assuming that's from less piracy and then inventory build in the channel.

在幻燈片 11 上，您從 Windows 附加和庫存中獲得了大約 8% 的收益，我假設這是由於盜版減少，然後是渠道中的庫存構建。

You also got about -- I think it was 10% last quarter.

你也得到了——我認為上個季度是 10%。

Now this is the second quarter into a new launch of Windows 7.

現在這是 Windows 7 新發布的第二季度。

I'm just curious -- how sustainable is that?

我只是好奇——這有多可持續？

I would assume that piracy -- there is going to be less during a -- on a launch even pirates have to buy legitimate copies at least for a while.

我會假設盜版 - 在發布期間會減少 - 即使盜版者必須至少在一段時間內購買正版副本。

And then also the inventory build in the OEM channel, I assume that would start to wane.

然後還有 OEM 渠道中的庫存，我認為這將開始減少。

If that happens, would you expect that benefit to start to wane here?

如果發生這種情況，您會期望這種好處在這裡開始減弱嗎？

And if it does, should we be thinking that the segment mix lineup above that with a corporate refresh cycle that sounds like it's going to happen in the second half, that should start -- you'd start to see less of a negative hit in that line?

如果確實如此，我們是否應該認為該細分市場的組合陣容與公司更新周期聽起來會在下半年發生，這應該開始 - 你會開始看到更少的負面影響那條線？

Or how should we be thinking about this?

或者我們應該如何思考這個問題？

Well, it's a great question.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題。

You're thinking about all of the right components of it.

您正在考慮它的所有正確組件。

And certainly attach and piracy are always going to sort of cycle up and down, depending on where you are.

當然，依附和盜版總是會上下循環，這取決於你在哪裡。

We're working through this year sort of a work-down of the inventory from last year.

今年我們正在努力減少去年的庫存。

And we are still working that.

我們仍在努力。

We're at sort of normal inventory levels.

我們處於正常的庫存水平。

That's been a good year-over-year thing for us.

這對我們來說是一件好事。

And attach -- correct -- is -- part of that is piracy related to the launch of Windows 7.

並且附上——正確的——是——其中一部分是與 Windows 7 的發布相關的盜版。

All of those things -- so we've given you specific color for Q4, what to expect for the OEM business relative to the PC business.

所有這些——所以我們已經為您提供了第四季度的特定顏色，以及相對於 PC 業務對 OEM 業務的期望。

Can I just add one thing?

我可以只添加一件事嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The other thing is just there's an overall -- I think we talked about it on prior calls -- an overall secular change, which is the multinational OEMs are becoming a more significant portion of the total PC market.

另一件事是總體上——我想我們在之前的電話會議上談到過——總體上的長期變化，即跨國 OEM 正在成為整個 PC 市場中更重要的部分。

And that does good things for our attach relative to the prior mix of our revenue from different PC manufacturers.

相對於我們之前來自不同 PC 製造商的收入組合，這對我們的附加值有好處。

Just to -- does that mean that you are seeing a little less piracy and you expect to see that in some international markets?

只是——這是否意味著你看到的盜版少了一點，你希望在一些國際市場上看到這一點？

We are seeing that globally.

我們在全球範圍內都看到了這一點。

Great, thanks.

太謝謝了。

Phil Winslow, Credit Suisse.

菲爾溫斯洛，瑞士信貸。

Good quarter.

好季度。

Peter, you guys have talked about in the last few quarters seeing a pretty significant uplift in Windows revenue from the retail channel.

彼得，你們在過去幾個季度談到了零售渠道帶來的 Windows 收入顯著增長。

Essentially consumers going out to the store to upgrade to Windows 7.

本質上是消費者去商店升級到 Windows 7。

When you compare what you believe is sort of the corporate upgrade opportunity to be to what you've seen over the past couple of quarters to consumer, which one is the larger of the two?

當您將您認為的企業升級機會與您在過去幾個季度中看到的消費者進行比較時，兩者中哪一個更大？

And when would you expect to see the corporate side begin?

您希望看到企業方面何時開始？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, just in sheer numbers in terms of PC shipments, the consumer is a lot bigger than the business segment.

好吧，就個人電腦出貨量而言，消費者比商業部門大得多。

Now, the impact you get from the business segment obviously is some ASP uplift.

現在，您從業務部門獲得的影響顯然是一些 ASP 提升。

We are starting to -- and you get the corporate refresh in two ways.

我們開始 - 您可以通過兩種方式獲得公司更新。

You can get sort of volume licensing upgrades or you can get an OEM when they buy the PCs, which is the largest piece of the revenue.

您可以獲得某種批量許可升級，或者您可以在他們購買 PC 時獲得 OEM，這是收入的最大部分。

And that's what we started to see happen, and you saw some of that impact this quarter with business PC shipments up 14%.

這就是我們開始看到的情況，您在本季度看到了其中的一些影響，商用 PC 出貨量增長了 14%。

That's the sort of -- this is sort of the shape of the opportunity going forward as that continues, and you can see that has an uplift on our OEM revenue relative to the overall PC market.

就是這樣——這是一種未來機會的形式，隨著這種情況的繼續，你可以看到相對於整個 PC 市場，我們的 OEM 收入有所提升。

Kash Rangan, Merrill Lynch.

卡什蘭根，美林證券。

I just wanted you to talk a little bit more about the deferred revenue trajectory going into Q4.

我只是想讓你多談談進入第四季度的遞延收入軌跡。

It looks like this year compared to the start of the year deferred revenue long-term [or] short-term is down a lot, more than what it has been the past few fiscal years.

與年初相比，今年的遞延收入長期[或]短期似乎下降了很多，比過去幾個財政年度的下降幅度更大。

So that would argue for a bigger than seasonal catch-up in Q4.

因此，這將證明第四季度的追趕幅度大於季節性。

So maybe you could talk about what is embedded in your expectations and what do you expect on the ELA side.

因此，也許您可以談談您的期望中包含什麼以及您對 ELA 方面的期望。

And also, I think you've talked about book but not build -- portion of your bookings.

而且，我認為您已經討論了書籍，但沒有討論您的預訂部分。

So if you could just give us some color on how that is shaping up, that would be great.

所以，如果你能給我們一些關於它是如何形成的顏色，那就太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just in terms of the numbers, what we -- sort of the guidance that we said, it's we are looking for sequential increase in Q4 in a similar range that you've seen over the last three, four, five years, the sequential growth.

就數字而言，我們所說的那種指導，我們正在尋找第四季度的連續增長，與你在過去三、四、五年看到的類似範圍內，連續增長.

We are starting to rebuild the balance.

我們開始重建平衡。

You started to see that happen a little bit in Q3 with our multiyear annuity billing having positive growth.

隨著我們的多年年金賬單出現正增長，您開始在第三季度看到這種情況發生了一點。

So I think that's sort of the essence of what we are expecting and what we are guiding to.

所以我認為這是我們所期待的和我們正在引導的本質。

What was your second question?

你的第二個問題是什麼？

The book but not build portion on the balance -- that you would talk about that in your presentations in prior times, but just noted that we've not been talking about that in recent times.

這本書但不是建立在平衡的基礎上的部分——你會在之前的演講中談到這一點，但只是注意到我們最近沒有談論過這個。

Just wondering if you have an update there.

只是想知道你那裡是否有更新。

I think that's actually a good thing that we'll talk about in July on the Q4 call, just because it's such a bigger issue, the seasonality in terms of our bookings in Q4 is so much more material than in Q3, I think that's a -- that's when we will talk about that.

我認為這實際上是一件好事，我們將在 7 月的第四季度電話會議上討論，因為這是一個更大的問題，就我們在第四季度的預訂而言的季節性比第三季度要重要得多，我認為這是一個——那時我們將討論這個問題。

Brad Reback, Oppenheimer.

布拉德·雷貝克，奧本海默。

So Peter, just switching gears back to server and tools, as I look back at my notes from last quarter, I think you guys talked about the annuity business being up mid-single digits.

所以彼得，只是將齒輪切換回服務器和工具，當我回顧上個季度的筆記時，我認為你們談到了年金業務正在增長中個位數。

I think it came in flat this quarter.

我認為本季度持平。

Given my understanding that most of that is coming off the balance sheet, what would have caused that delta in that three-month period?

鑑於我的理解是其中大部分都從資產負債表中消失，那麼在這三個月期間，是什麼導致了該增量？

The comment was for H2, not for Q3 -- up mid-single digits.

評論是針對 H2 的，而不是針對 Q3 的——中個位數。

So if you look at our guidance again with the seasonality of our sales cycle, most of that comes from Q4, which was in our guidance that we gave today.

因此，如果您再次根據我們的銷售週期的季節性來查看我們的指導，其中大部分來自第四季度，這是我們今天給出的指導。

Great, thanks.

太謝謝了。

Katherine Egbert, Jefferies & Co.

凱瑟琳·埃格伯特，傑富瑞公司

Speaking of guidance, there's a lot of moving parts right now, multiple product cycles, revenue deferrals, and economic recovery.

說到指導，現在有很多活動部件、多個產品週期、收入延遲和經濟復甦。

What are you looking for to become comfortable with providing more specific guidance?

您正在尋找什麼來適應提供更具體的指導？

What are the triggers?

觸發器是什麼？

I'm not sure there are specific triggers.

我不確定是否有特定的觸發器。

I [actually] (technical difficulty) having a driver-based framework and having a really good qualitative discussion about all the factors that drive it is actually a great way to talk about the outlook and the environment and what we are seeing for our businesses.

我[實際上]（技術難度）擁有一個基於驅動程序的框架，並對驅動它的所有因素進行了非常好的定性討論，這實際上是談論前景和環境以及我們對業務的看法的好方法。

And so I think there is no specific triggers that are going to change that.

所以我認為沒有具體的觸發因素會改變這種情況。

I think the dialogue that we are having around these drivers and the framework is great.

我認為我們圍繞這些驅動因素和框架進行的對話很棒。

Brendan Barnicle, Pacific Crest Securities.

Brendan Barnicle，Pacific Crest 證券。

Peter, you talked about next year gross margins obviously having an impact from the hardware cycle.

彼得，你談到明年的毛利率顯然會受到硬件週期的影響。

In the past at times you've talked about as you change to more cloud computing those taking a hit as well.

過去，您有時會談到，當您轉向更多的雲計算時，它們也會受到影響。

Can you give us any range?

你能給我們任何範圍嗎？

Could we see as much as 2 percentage points in change there next year?

明年我們能看到多達 2 個百分點的變化嗎？

We are not giving a range on that now.

我們現在沒有給出一個範圍。

We'll definitely talk about that at the financial analyst meeting in July.

我們肯定會在 7 月的金融分析師會議上討論這個問題。

Rob Breza, RBC Capital Markets.

Rob Breza，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Peter, just maybe as a follow-up to Brendan's question, you called out in your prepared remarks the 40 million paid seats for the cloud initiative.

Peter，作為 Brendan 問題的後續，您在準備好的發言中提到了雲計劃的 4000 萬個付費席位。

I was wondering if you could talk about where you're seeing the strength there and how we might expect that to be 12 months from now.

我想知道你是否可以談談你在哪裡看到了那裡的力量，以及我們如何預期從現在開始的 12 個月。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We are seeing strength across a variety of our areas.

我們在各個領域都看到了實力。

You heard Bill talk about all the great customers we have on (technical difficulty) our commercial online services like SharePoint Online and Exchange Online.

你聽過比爾談到我們在商業在線服務（如 SharePoint Online 和 Exchange Online）上擁有的所有優秀客戶（技術難度）。

That's obviously a big growth area for us.

這對我們來說顯然是一個很大的增長領域。

The 40 million comes from things like Live Meeting and Exchange Hosted Services and CRM Online.

4000 萬來自 Live Meeting 和 Exchange Hosted Services 以及 CRM Online。

And so what you're seeing is really part of our strategy, so the broadest array of commercial services for businesses of all sizes.

因此，您所看到的確實是我們戰略的一部分，因此為各種規模的企業提供最廣泛的商業服務。

Some of these are really aimed more at midmarket customers, some are aimed more at big enterprise customers.

其中一些實際上更多地針對中端市場客戶，而另一些則更多地針對大型企業客戶。

And we are getting growth from both.

我們正在從兩者中獲得增長。

And then the last thing that we sort of touched on but didn't talk about in great detail was Azure, which is now available in 41 countries, and what that will do really over the next couple of years.

最後我們談到但沒有詳細討論的最後一件事是 Azure，它現在在 41 個國家/地區可用，以及在接下來的幾年裡它將真正發揮作用。

We've got time for just one more question.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Tim Klasell, Thomas Weisel Partners.

蒂姆·克拉塞爾，托馬斯·韋塞爾合夥人。

A question about the Windows 7 upgrade cycle.

關於 Windows 7 升級週期的問題。

It appears to us that a lot of customers are going to attach a Windows 7 upgrade with maybe a Server 2008 R2 upgrade.

在我們看來，很多客戶都將附加 Windows 7 升級和 Server 2008 R2 升級。

Are you sensing that?

你感覺到了嗎？

And could that maybe delay the Windows 7 upgrade cycle a little bit more than we normally would but have the positive impact of pulling along some server sales as well?

這可能會比我們通常會稍微延遲 Windows 7 升級週期，但也會對拉動一些服務器銷售產生積極影響嗎？

We really haven't seen that at all.

我們真的根本沒有看到。

As a matter of fact, when we talk to our enterprise customers, there is a high degree of intent to deploy Windows 7 as soon as possible.

事實上，當我們與企業客戶交談時，有一種盡快部署 Windows 7 的高度意圖。

There's a -- many, many -- a high percentage of our customers are already either in pilot or prelaunch mode for deploying Windows 7.

我們的客戶中有很大一部分已經處於部署 Windows 7 的試點或預啟動模式。

So I think we haven't seen that as a phenomenon at all, people waiting for Windows 7.

所以我認為我們根本沒有看到這種現象，人們在等待 Windows 7。

In fact we see the opposite, that people are deploying it rather quickly.

事實上，我們看到了相反的情況，人們正在相當快地部署它。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

So that will wrap up our Q&A portion of today's earnings call.

因此，這將結束我們今天財報電話會議的問答部分。

Remember that you can access this call on the Microsoft investor relations website at Microsoft.com/MSFT.

請記住，您可以在 Microsoft 投資者關係網站 Microsoft.com/MSFT 上訪問此電話。

Please keep in mind that we will be at a number of conferences in the next couple of months.

請記住，我們將在接下來的幾個月內參加許多會議。

We will be at the JPMorgan conference in May, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch conference, the Cowen conference, the RBC and UBS conferences in June.

我們將參加 5 月的摩根大通會議、美銀美林會議、考恩會議、6 月份的 RBC 和 UBS 會議。

In addition we will be previewing Natal at E3 in LA in June.

此外，我們將於 6 月在洛杉磯的 E3 上預覽 Natal。

Please contact Microsoft investor relations if you need additional details.

如果您需要更多詳細信息，請聯繫 Microsoft 投資者關係部。

We hope to see you there.

我們希望看到你在那裡。

Thanks again for joining us, and have a great day.

再次感謝您加入我們，祝您有美好的一天。

That concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Please disconnect your lines at this time.

此時請斷開您的線路。