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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Microsoft fourth-quarter fiscal year 2010 earnings conference call.
歡迎參加 Microsoft 2010 財年第四季度財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions).
(操作員說明)。
Today's call is being recorded.
今天的電話正在錄音。
If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
如果您有任何異議,您可以在此時斷開連接。
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.
我現在想把電話轉給先生。
Bill Koefoed, General Manager Investor Relations.
投資者關係總經理 Bill Koefoed。
Sir, you may begin.
先生,您可以開始了。
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Thank you, Barb, and thank you everyone for joining us this afternoon.
謝謝你,Barb,謝謝大家今天下午加入我們。
As usual, with me today are Peter Klein, Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Chief Accounting Officer; and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.
像往常一樣,今天和我在一起的是首席財務官 Peter Klein; Frank Brod,首席會計官;和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。
Today Peter will start with overall takeaways from the quarter and fiscal year.
今天,彼得將從本季度和財政年度的總體總結開始。
Then I will give you the details of our performance before handing it back to Peter, who will discuss our outlook.
然後,我將向您介紹我們的表現細節,然後將其交還給彼得,他將討論我們的前景。
After that we will take your questions.
之後,我們將回答您的問題。
Our earnings press release today includes an addendum of financial highlights with detailed information about revenue, operating expenses, and other items.
我們今天發布的收益新聞稿包括財務亮點的附錄,其中包含有關收入、運營費用和其他項目的詳細信息。
We have also posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks, as well as provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.
我們還發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片,旨在遵循我們準備好的評論流程,並提供 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務措施之間差異的對賬。
You can find these documents on the Investor Relations website at Microsoft.com/msft.
您可以在投資者關係網站 Microsoft.com/msft 上找到這些文件。
In addition, as part of our ongoing efforts to improve and incorporate your feedback, we will post today's prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call until the official transcript is available.
此外,作為我們不斷努力改進和整合您的反饋的一部分,我們將在電話會議後立即將今天準備好的評論發佈到我們的網站,直到獲得正式成績單。
Today's call will be webcast live and recorded.
今天的電話將進行網絡直播和錄製。
If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and any future use of recording.
如果您提出問題,它將包含在我們的實時傳輸、成績單以及任何未來的錄音用途中。
You can replay the call and view the transcript at the Microsoft Investor Relations website until July 22, 2011.
在 2011 年 7 月 22 日之前,您可以在 Microsoft 投資者關係網站上重播電話並查看記錄。
This conference call is protected by copyright law and international treaty.
本次電話會議受版權法和國際條約的保護。
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this call, or any portion of it, without the express written permission of Microsoft may result in civil and criminal penalties.
未經 Microsoft 明確書面許可,未經授權複製或分發此通話或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。
We will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking.
我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。
These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設,這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。
Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
由於今天的收益新聞稿、本次電話會議期間的評論以及我們的 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格以及其他報告和提交給證券公司的文件的風險因素部分中討論的因素,實際結果可能存在重大差異。交易委員會。
We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.
我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。
Okay, and with that I will turn the call over to Peter.
好的,然後我將把電話轉給彼得。
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
Thanks, Bill, and good afternoon everyone.
謝謝,比爾,大家下午好。
I'm very pleased to share with all of you our strong financial results.
我很高興與大家分享我們強勁的財務業績。
We achieved record revenue, operating income and earnings per share for both the fourth quarter and the full year.
我們在第四季度和全年都實現了創紀錄的收入、營業收入和每股收益。
This quarter our strong revenue performance was both broad and deep, with every business achieving double-digit growth.
本季度我們強勁的收入表現既廣泛又深入,每項業務都實現了兩位數的增長。
Strong sales execution closed the year with fourth-quarter bookings increasing 27%.
強勁的銷售執行力在今年結束時第四季度的預訂量增長了 27%。
For the year both the Windows Division and Server and Tools segment achieved record revenue.
在這一年裡,Windows 部門和服務器和工具部門都取得了創紀錄的收入。
We are equally enthusiastic about the customer and product momentum we have achieved this year across the breadth of our portfolio.
我們對今年在整個產品組合中所取得的客戶和產品發展勢頭同樣充滿熱情。
Of course, I have to start by noting Windows 7, which has received tremendous market response.
當然,我首先要提到 Windows 7,它已經獲得了巨大的市場反響。
With 175 million licenses sold to date, it is the fastest selling operating system ever, and now runs on over 15% of all PCs worldwide.
迄今為止,它已售出 1.75 億個許可證,是有史以來銷售速度最快的操作系統,目前在全球超過 15% 的 PC 上運行。
Capitalizing on the recovery of the server hardware market, Windows Server 2008 R2 has enjoyed strong demand and increased Windows Server market share.
借助服務器硬件市場的複蘇,Windows Server 2008 R2 的需求旺盛,Windows Server 市場份額不斷增加。
With the launches of Exchange 2010 and most recently SharePoint 2010 and Office 2010, we delivered key innovations in our productivity portfolio.
隨著 Exchange 2010 以及最近的 SharePoint 2010 和 Office 2010 的發布,我們在生產力產品組合中實現了關鍵創新。
Equally as important for our long-term growth, we made significant strides in our cloud initiative by bringing Windows Azure to market, and by increasing customer traction with our commercial online services.
對於我們的長期增長同樣重要的是,我們通過將 Windows Azure 推向市場並通過我們的商業在線服務增加客戶吸引力,在我們的雲計劃方面取得了重大進展。
Throughout the year we continued to update and enhance Bing, which has now achieved 13 consecutive months of marketshare growth.
在這一年中,我們不斷更新和增強 Bing,現已實現連續 13 個月的市場份額增長。
Finally, we focused on consumers with our new Xbox 360 consoles, and the announcements of Kinect and Windows Phone 7 coming to market this holiday season.
最後,我們通過新的 Xbox 360 遊戲機以及 Kinect 和 Windows Phone 7 在這個假日季節上市的公告將重點放在了消費者身上。
Meanwhile as a result of our ongoing commitment to managing costs, we held annual operating expenses roughly flat.
同時,由於我們持續致力於管理成本,我們的年度運營費用基本持平。
Our continued revenue strength and cost discipline drove yet another consecutive quarter of margin expansion, and record annual profits in the Windows Division, Server and Tools business, and Entertainment and Devices Division, as well as the Company in total.
我們持續的收入實力和成本紀律推動了連續一個季度的利潤率增長,並在 Windows 部門、服務器和工具業務、娛樂和設備部門以及公司的總體年度利潤創紀錄。
We grew full-year operating income by almost $4 billion and generated operating cash flow of $24 billion.
我們全年營業收入增長了近 40 億美元,並產生了 240 億美元的經營現金流。
Of this amount we returned about two-thirds, or almost $16 billion, to shareholders in the form of stock repurchases and dividends.
在這筆款項中,我們以股票回購和股息的形式向股東返還了大約三分之二,即近 160 億美元。
Finally, I am particularly pleased by our growth in earnings per share of 50% for the fourth quarter and 30% for the full year.
最後,我對第四季度每股收益增長 50% 和全年增長 30% 感到特別高興。
So it has been a great fiscal year and an outstanding fourth quarter.
因此,這是一個偉大的財政年度和出色的第四季度。
With those remarks, I will now turn the call over to Bill to provide more details on the quarter.
有了這些評論,我現在將電話轉給比爾,以提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息。
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Thanks, Peter.
謝謝,彼得。
As I review this quarter's performance keep in mind all growth comparisons relate to the corresponding period of last year, unless I specify otherwise.
當我回顧本季度的表現時,請記住所有增長比較都與去年同期有關,除非我另有說明。
As Peter noted in his opening remarks, we finished the year with terrific financial results.
正如彼得在開幕詞中指出的那樣,我們在這一年結束時取得了可喜的財務業績。
Total revenue for the quarter grew 22% to over $16 billion, a record fourth-quarter result.
本季度總收入增長 22% 至超過 160 億美元,創第四季度的創紀錄水平。
Windows, Online Services, Entertainment and Devices, Server and Tools, the Business Division, each of our operating segments grew revenues double digit this quarter, reflecting broad-based strength across all of our businesses.
Windows、在線服務、娛樂和設備、服務器和工具、業務部門,我們每個運營部門本季度的收入都增長了兩位數,反映了我們所有業務的廣泛實力。
Fourth-quarter GAAP operating income grew 49%, while EPS grew 50%.
第四季度 GAAP 營業收入增長 49%,而每股收益增長 50%。
Looking at the full year, and adjusting for the tech guarantees, we had four consecutive quarters of margin expansion, with EPS growing faster than revenue every quarter.
縱觀全年,並根據技術保證進行調整,我們連續四個季度實現了利潤率增長,每個季度的每股收益增長都快於收入。
Operating cash flow was up 46% to a fourth-quarter record $5.6 billion.
經營現金流增長 46%,達到第四季度創紀錄的 56 億美元。
As for the year, operating cash flow surpassed $24 billion, as Peter noted, also a record.
正如彼得所說,這一年的經營現金流超過了 240 億美元,這也是創紀錄的。
Customer demand was strong across the breadth of the Microsoft portfolio this quarter, as we saw total bookings growth accelerate to 27%.
本季度整個微軟產品組合的客戶需求強勁,我們看到總預訂量增長加速至 27%。
In the Enterprise businesses continued to invest in and commit to the Microsoft platform.
在企業中,企業繼續投資並致力於 Microsoft 平台。
Sales execution and enterprise agreement renewal rates have improved as unearned revenue at the end of the quarter was $14.8 billion, up a very healthy 21% sequentially.
銷售執行和企業協議續簽率有所改善,本季度末未實現收入為 148 億美元,環比增長 21%,非常健康。
The contracted not-billed balance ended the year over a record $15 billion.
年末合同未開票餘額超過創紀錄的 150 億美元。
The small and midmarket customer segment continued to experience robust growth and was up approximately 20%.
中小型市場客戶群繼續強勁增長,增長約 20%。
Finally, continuing a trend this year, consumer demand was fantastic with growth in Windows, Office, Search and Xbox.
最後,今年延續了這一趨勢,隨著 Windows、Office、Search 和 Xbox 的增長,消費者的需求非常可觀。
Geographically we saw strength across all regions led by emerging market.
從地理上看,我們看到了新興市場引領的所有地區的實力。
Growth in the US improved this quarter, while demand in Europe remained healthy.
本季度美國的增長有所改善,而歐洲的需求保持健康。
The PC market continues to thrive, and we estimate the market grew between 22% and 24%, with both consumer and business growing in the same range.
PC 市場繼續蓬勃發展,我們估計市場增長了 22% 到 24%,消費者和企業的增長幅度相同。
From a geographic perspective, emerging markets remain a significant driver of the PC market with almost twice the growth of mature markets.
從地域角度來看,新興市場仍然是 PC 市場的重要推動力,其增長率幾乎是成熟市場的兩倍。
With that PC backdrop, I will move on to the Windows and Windows Live Division.
以 PC 為背景,我將繼續討論 Windows 和 Windows Live 部門。
Windows revenue grew over $1 billion, or 32%, this quarter when adjusted for the Windows Tech Guarantee last year.
根據去年的 Windows 技術保證調整後,本季度 Windows 收入增長超過 10 億美元,即 32%。
Total OEM license code was 26% and outpaced the PC market for the third quarter in a row.
OEM 許可證代碼總量為 26%,連續第三季度超過 PC 市場。
Consumer and business licenses both grew approximately 26%.
消費者和營業執照均增長了約 26%。
The business PC refresh cycle has accelerated, and we recorded the second straight quarter of double-digit business license growth.
商用 PC 更新周期加快,我們連續第二個季度實現了兩位數的營業執照增長。
As in past quarters to help you bridge the secret to OEM revenue growth, we have provided a reconciliation slide in our earnings deck.
與過去幾個季度一樣,為了幫助您彌合 OEM 收入增長的秘訣,我們在收益表中提供了對賬幻燈片。
At 31% growth, adjusted Windows OEM revenue outgrew PC shipments by 7 percentage point this quarter.
本季度,調整後的 Windows OEM 收入增長 31%,比 PC 出貨量高 7 個百分點。
The hardware segment mix was a 3 point headwind to revenue.
硬件部門組合對收入構成了 3 個百分點的阻力。
As I mentioned earlier, emerging markets continued to outpace mature markets.
正如我之前提到的,新興市場繼續超過成熟市場。
Windows attach and inventory drove 6 percentage points of growth.
Windows 附加和庫存推動了 6 個百分點的增長。
We exited the quarter with normal inventory levels and continue to benefit from solid attach gains in both business and consumer.
我們以正常的庫存水平退出了本季度,並繼續受益於企業和消費者的穩固增長。
Finally, upsell and channel dynamics drove 7 percentage point of growth, reflecting a higher Windows 7 operating mix.
最後,追加銷售和渠道動態推動了 7 個百分點的增長,反映出更高的 Windows 7 運營組合。
Enterprise adoption of Windows 7 accelerated and the non-OEM portion of the Windows Division grew 36%, driven by an increase in volume licensing to businesses and retail sales of Windows 7.
企業對 Windows 7 的採用速度加快,Windows 部門的非 OEM 部分增長了 36%,這得益於對企業的批量許可和 Windows 7 零售額的增加。
Clearly the Windows franchise is thriving.
顯然,Windows 系列正在蓬勃發展。
Importantly, customer satisfaction for Windows 7 is incredibly high at 94%, and businesses are deploying Windows 7 in the enterprise.
重要的是,客戶對 Windows 7 的滿意度高達 94%,而且企業正在企業中部署 Windows 7。
In the browser IE 8 is now the fastest growing and most popular Web browser in the market, with IE 9 coming soon.
在瀏覽器方面,IE 8 現在是市場上增長最快、最受歡迎的 Web 瀏覽器,IE 9 即將推出。
Now let's move to Server and Tools, which posted 14% revenue growth in the fourth quarter, and had a record year with $14.9 billion of revenue.
現在讓我們轉向服務器和工具,它在第四季度實現了 14% 的收入增長,並創下了 149 億美元的創紀錄收入。
We estimate the underlying server hardware market grew 25% to 28%.
我們估計底層服務器硬件市場增長了 25% 到 28%。
Non-annuity revenue grew approximately 20%.
非年金收入增長約 20%。
Windows Server grew with the market, while SQL Server 2008 R2 and Visual Studio Developer Tools also contributed to the growth.
Windows Server 與市場一起增長,而 SQL Server 2008 R2 和 Visual Studio Developer Tools 也為增長做出了貢獻。
Annuity revenue, which is approximately 50% of the business, grew about 15% with improved enterprise demand.
隨著企業需求的改善,約佔業務 50% 的年金收入增長了約 15%。
From a product perspective Windows Server, SQL Server and System Center all experienced double-digit growth.
從產品的角度來看,Windows Server、SQL Server 和 System Center 都經歷了兩位數的增長。
Enterprise Services about 20% of revenue grew 3%.
企業服務約20%的收入增長了3%。
Windows Server continues to gain share as businesses replace and procure new hardware in the data center.
隨著企業在數據中心更換和採購新硬件,Windows Server 繼續獲得份額。
We estimate Windows Server grew its marketshare over 1 percentage point, while at the same time increasing premium mix to about 25%.
我們估計 Windows Server 的市場份額增長了 1 個百分點以上,同時將高級組合提高到 25% 左右。
Our virtualization suite almost doubled this quarter.
本季度我們的虛擬化套件幾乎翻了一番。
In addition to the share gains in and the traditional server market, Microsoft is leading the way to the cloud with our Windows Azure services platform.
除了在傳統服務器市場上的份額增長之外,微軟還通過我們的 Windows Azure 服務平台引領了雲計算之路。
Just last week at the Worldwide Partner Conference, we unveiled a number of new cloud innovations and partnerships, further increasing the alignment between or on-premise Windows Server, SQL Server and System Center products with the Azure platform.
就在上週的全球合作夥伴大會上,我們公佈了一些新的雲創新和合作夥伴關係,進一步提高了內部部署 Windows Server、SQL Server 和 System Center 產品與 Azure 平台之間的一致性。
Next I will move on to the Online Services division, which grew 13%.
接下來我將轉到在線服務部門,該部門增長了 13%。
The online advertising component of the division grew 19%, primarily driven by our Search business, which again outperforms the market.
該部門的在線廣告部分增長了 19%,主要受我們搜索業務的推動,該業務再次跑贏市場。
We continue to be encouraged by Bing's ongoing share gains due to the pace of exciting innovation and differentiation it brings to the market.
由於 Bing 為市場帶來的令人興奮的創新和差異化步伐,我們繼續對 Bing 的持續份額增長感到鼓舞。
June marks the 13th consecutive month of share gains in the US, which is now up over 4 points since launch.
6 月是美國股市連續第 13 個月上漲,自推出以來已上漲超過 4 個百分點。
Turning to the Microsoft Business Division, revenue grew 15%, and Office 2010 is off to a great start.
談到微軟業務部門,收入增長了 15%,Office 2010 有了一個良好的開端。
Consumer revenue, which includes OEM and retail, grew 51% following the launch of Office 2010, heading back into the back-to-school season.
包括 OEM 和零售在內的消費者收入在 Office 2010 推出後增長了 51%,即將進入返校季。
The business portion of MBD grew 8%.
MBD的業務部分增長了8%。
Non-annuity license sales jumped 15%, trending toward PC shipment growth as expected.
非年金許可證銷售額躍升 15%,符合預期的 PC 出貨量增長趨勢。
The annuity licensing portion of the business grew 6%, driven by an increase in enterprise demand.
在企業需求增長的推動下,該業務的年金許可部分增長了 6%。
Office and the integration with SharePoint, Office Communications Server and Dynamics CRM had strong demand and each of these products grew double digits this quarter.
Office 以及與 SharePoint、Office Communications Server 和 Dynamics CRM 的集成需求強勁,本季度這些產品中的每一個都增長了兩位數。
The cloud enhances these productivity scenarios, and our customers are purchasing suites of our Online Services at an increasing pace.
雲增強了這些生產力場景,我們的客戶正在以越來越快的速度購買我們的在線服務套件。
70% of our business productivity online seats represent new business to Microsoft.
我們 70% 的業務生產力在線席位代表了 Microsoft 的新業務。
Let's move onto the Entertainment and Devices Division, which grew 27%.
讓我們看看增長了 27% 的娛樂和設備部門。
Gaming revenue grew 30% as we sold 1.5 million consoles, a unit net increase of 26%, taking share as we grew faster than the overall market.
隨著我們售出 150 萬台遊戲機,遊戲收入增長了 30%,單位淨增長 26%,因為我們的增長速度快於整體市場。
Xbox LIVE continues to be a tremendous asset with over 25 million members.
Xbox LIVE 繼續成為擁有超過 2500 萬會員的巨大資產。
This year marks the first time that Xbox LIVE digital marketplace revenue exceeded subscription revenue, illustrating the services increasing level of customer engagement and monetization.
今年標誌著 Xbox LIVE 數字市場收入首次超過訂閱收入,表明服務提高了客戶參與度和貨幣化水平。
Non-gaming revenue was up 23%, driven by growth in Windows Embedded and sales of PC accessories that generally align to PC market growth.
非遊戲收入增長了 23%,這得益於 Windows Embedded 的增長以及與 PC 市場增長基本一致的 PC 配件銷售。
This quarter at E3 we unveiled Kinect, the Xbox 360 motion sensor which will enable you to play games and control your music and movies with just your voice or a wave of your hand.
本季度在 E3 上,我們推出了 Kinect,這是一款 Xbox 360 運動傳感器,您只需通過語音或揮手即可玩遊戲並控制音樂和電影。
No controller required.
無需控制器。
Earlier this week we announced products and pricing for the all new Kinect experience.
本週早些時候,我們公佈了全新 Kinect 體驗的產品和定價。
The Kinect experience, with more than 15 games available this holiday, begins in North America on November 4.
Kinect 體驗將於 11 月 4 日在北美開始,這個假期提供超過 15 款遊戲。
Now let me cover the remainder of the income statement.
現在讓我涵蓋損益表的其餘部分。
Foreign exchange had a 2% positive impact to revenue this quarter.
本季度外匯對收入產生了 2% 的積極影響。
We experienced a headwind from the euro, as one would expect, but this was more than offset by our hedging program and the dollar weakening in other currencies.
正如人們所預料的那樣,我們經歷了來自歐元的逆風,但這被我們的對沖計劃和美元對其他貨幣的貶值所抵消。
Cost of goods sold increased 23% to $3.2 billion, driven primarily by increased online costs, royalties and other charges.
銷售成本增加 23% 至 32 億美元,主要受在線成本、特許權使用費和其他費用增加的推動。
Operating expenses were $6.9 billion in the quarter, under our guidance range, and we are very pleased with the Q4 execution and fiscal discipline.
在我們的指導範圍內,本季度的運營費用為 69 億美元,我們對第四季度的執行和財政紀律感到非常滿意。
Headcount decreased 4% year-over-year.
員工人數同比減少 4%。
We repurchased $3.8 billion of shares and paid $1.1 billion of dividends.
我們回購了 38 億美元的股票並支付了 11 億美元的股息。
So to wrap up, our product cycle momentum continues with the release of Office 2010 and the breadth of our portfolio, which drove record results.
總之,隨著 Office 2010 的發布和我們產品組合的廣泛性,我們的產品週期勢頭繼續,這推動了創紀錄的業績。
Our cost discipline remains strong.
我們的成本紀律仍然很強。
In the cloud we have great momentum and are seeing businesses invest in the Microsoft platform.
在雲中,我們勢頭強勁,並且看到企業投資於 Microsoft 平台。
With that, I will hand it back to Peter, who is going to discuss our business outlook.
有了這個,我會把它交給彼得,他將討論我們的業務前景。
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
Thanks, Bill.
謝謝,比爾。
I will now share our thoughts on the first quarter and total fiscal year 2011.
我現在將分享我們對 2011 年第一季度和整個財政年度的看法。
We are entering the year with great momentum.
我們正以強勁的勢頭進入新的一年。
We are encouraged by the resurgence in business PC shipments, and expect the business PC refresh cycle to continue through fiscal year 2011.
我們對商用 PC 出貨量的回升感到鼓舞,並預計商用 PC 更新周期將持續到 2011 財年。
The recent refresh of our Enterprise Products has positioned us well to meet customers' needs as they return to investing in information technology.
我們最近更新的企業產品使我們能夠很好地滿足客戶在重新投資信息技術時的需求。
Turning to our outlook by business, we expect Windows Division revenue to grow roughly in line with PC shipments for the first quarter and full year, excluding the $700 million revenue impact from the Windows 7 retail launch, and $276 million from the technology guarantee revenue, carried over from fiscal year 2009.
轉向我們的業務展望,我們預計 Windows 部門的收入將大致與第一季度和全年的 PC 出貨量一致,不包括 Windows 7 零售發布帶來的 7 億美元收入影響,以及技術保證收入帶來的 2.76 億美元,從 2009 財年結轉。
For the Microsoft Business Division, consumer and business non-annuity revenue, approximately 40% of the total, should continue to track with their PC shipment growth rates for the first quarter and full year.
對於微軟業務部門,消費者和企業非年金收入約佔總收入的 40%,應該會繼續與第一季度和全年的 PC 出貨量增長率保持一致。
Annuity revenue for the first quarter and full year should grow low to mid single digits.
第一季度和全年的年金收入應該會增長到中個位數。
Moving to the Server and Tools business, for the first quarter we expect non-annuity revenue to be up mid-to high single digits as first-quarter bookings are sales cycle driven and tend to be the softest seasonal quarter irrespective of hardware shipments.
轉向服務器和工具業務,我們預計第一季度的非年金收入將達到中高個位數,因為第一季度的預訂受銷售週期驅動,並且無論硬件出貨量如何,往往是最疲軟的季節性季度。
For the full year we expect non-annuity revenue to generally track with the hardware market.
對於全年,我們預計非年金收入將大致與硬件市場同步。
We expect annuity revenue to grow roughly high single digits for the first quarter and full year.
我們預計第一季度和全年的年金收入將增長大約個位數。
Enterprise Services revenue should grow mid-single digits.
企業服務收入應增長中個位數。
For the Online Services Divison our online advertising business should outperform the overall online advertising market.
對於在線服務部門,我們的在線廣告業務應優於整體在線廣告市場。
Regarding our search partnership with Yahoo!, we are working closely with them to migrate both algorithmic and paid traffic in North America for this holiday season.
關於我們與 Yahoo! 的搜索合作夥伴關係,我們正在與他們密切合作,以便在這個假期期間遷移北美的算法和付費流量。
Finally, I will cover the Entertainment and Devices Division.
最後,我將介紹娛樂和設備部門。
Based upon the compelling wave of consumer offerings coming to market, we expect revenue will grow in the mid teens for the first quarter and full year, following its normal seasonal skew to the first half of the year.
基於令人信服的消費者產品進入市場,我們預計第一季度和全年的收入將在十幾歲左右增長,此前其正常的季節性偏向於今年上半年。
Moving to cost of goods sold, gross margins will be impacted by product mix, and particularly by the increase in hardware sales that will drive growth in the Entertainment and Devices Division.
轉向商品銷售成本,毛利率將受到產品組合的影響,尤其是硬件銷售的增長將推動娛樂和設備部門的增長。
We remain focused on diligently managing our cost structure and are lowering our full-year operating expense guidance to between $26.9 billion and $27.3 billion, which includes our estimate of Yahoo!
我們仍然專注於努力管理我們的成本結構,並將我們的全年運營費用指導下調至 269 億美元至 273 億美元之間,其中包括我們對雅虎的估計!
search integration expenses.
搜索整合費用。
We expect our effective tax rate to remain approximately 25%.
我們預計我們的有效稅率將保持在 25% 左右。
Pushing to the balance sheet, we expect that the first quarter unearned revenue balance will track to normal historical patterns on a sequential basis, after adjusting for the impact of tech guarantees in the prior year.
推到資產負債表上,我們預計第一季度未實現收入餘額將在調整上一年技術擔保的影響後,按順序跟踪正常的歷史模式。
Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2011 will be about $2.5 billion.
2011 財年的資本支出約為 25 億美元。
This will be the second year in a row in which CapEx spending will be lower than depreciation expense.
這將是連續第二年資本支出低於折舊費用。
We will continue to generate strong free cash flow and remain committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividend and stock repurchases.
我們將繼續產生強勁的自由現金流,並繼續致力於通過股息和股票回購向股東返還資本。
So, in summary, I am very pleased by our outstanding financial results for the quarter and the full year.
因此,總而言之,我對我們本季度和全年的出色財務業績感到非常高興。
We have great product momentum in the market and strong business and consumer demand for our most recent wave of products.
我們在市場上擁有強大的產品動力,以及對我們最近一波產品的強勁商業和消費者需求。
With the exciting pipeline of consumer products arriving to market this holiday season, we are well-positioned to continue this momentum this coming year.
隨著令人興奮的消費產品在這個假日季節進入市場,我們已做好準備在來年繼續這一勢頭。
On that note, I am looking forward to seeing all of you at our financial analyst meeting next week.
在這方面,我期待在下週的金融分析師會議上見到你們所有人。
And I will now return the call to Bill, so that we can begin taking your questions.
我現在將電話回電給比爾,以便我們開始回答您的問題。
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Thanks, Peter.
謝謝,彼得。
We want to get questions from as many of you as possible, so please stick to one question and avoid long or multipart questions.
我們希望從盡可能多的人那裡得到問題,所以請堅持一個問題,避免冗長或多部分的問題。
Barb, can you please go ahead and repeat your instructions?
Barb,你能繼續重複你的指示嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions).
(操作員說明)。
Walter Pritchard, Citi.
花旗銀行的沃爾特·普里查德。
Walter Pritchard - Analyst
Walter Pritchard - Analyst
I was wondering if you could elucidate a little bit on the PC side, your assumptions for fiscal '11, and just talk about tablets and how you're thinking about that market.
我想知道您是否可以在 PC 方面稍微說明一下,您對 11 財年的假設,然後談談平板電腦以及您對這個市場的看法。
Are you talking about growing in line with traditional PCs?
您是在談論與傳統 PC 同步增長嗎?
And what impact do you think tablets will have on the market, and what may be your share in that area, and how does that affect your growth rate?
您認為平板電腦將對市場產生什麼影響,您在該領域的份額可能是多少,這對您的增長率有何影響?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
Yes, we are very excited about the market.
是的,我們對市場感到非常興奮。
The PC market is the PC market excluding tablets.
個人電腦市場是不包括平板電腦的個人電腦市場。
But, obviously, we are super happy with both the state of the PC market and the customer traction for Windows 7.
但是,很明顯,我們對 PC 市場的現狀和 Windows 7 的客戶吸引力都非常滿意。
We think tablets are very interesting and remind us that there are always new scenarios and new opportunities.
我們認為平板電腦非常有趣,並提醒我們總是有新的場景和新的機會。
And we are constantly working with our partners and our OEM partners.
我們一直在與我們的合作夥伴和我們的 OEM 合作夥伴合作。
In fact, I think one of the things that has driven the PC market and Windows growth this year has been the work we have done with our OEM partners on multiple scenarios and form factors and price points to hit all those.
事實上,我認為今年推動 PC 市場和 Windows 增長的原因之一是我們與 OEM 合作夥伴在多個場景、外形尺寸和價格點上所做的工作,以達到所有這些目標。
Tablets, I think are interesting and great, because I think they enlarge the overall opportunity.
我認為平板電腦很有趣而且很棒,因為我認為它們擴大了整體機會。
I think they are additive to the opportunity.
我認為它們是機會的補充。
Again, it reminds us that there are lots of interesting new scenarios that we are continuing to work on, and so we are excited by that.
它再次提醒我們,我們正在繼續研究許多有趣的新場景,因此我們對此感到興奮。
Operator
Operator
Adam Holt, Morgan Stanley.
亞當霍爾特,摩根士丹利。
Adam Holt - Analyst
Adam Holt - Analyst
It looks like a really good start to Office, 8% business growth was the highest number I think you have seen in two years.
這看起來是 Office 的一個非常好的開始,8% 的業務增長是我認為你在兩年內看到的最高數字。
Do you think business revenue growth can get to the same levels you saw with the previous Office cycle, where it reached north of 20%?
您是否認為業務收入增長可以達到您在上一個 Office 週期中看到的相同水平,達到 20% 以上?
Why wouldn't the annuity business for Office grow faster than low single digits in the heart of the cycle next year?
為什麼 Office 的年金業務在明年的周期核心增長速度不會超過低個位數?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
I am not going to give guidance on business revenue, other than the driver framework that we gave.
除了我們提供的驅動程序框架外,我不會就業務收入提供指導。
In terms of the annuity business, obviously, this is in terms of the deferred revenues that we have had the last year or year and a half has been slow, and so we are digging out of that hole or the recognitions that we have from the deferred revenue balance.
顯然,就年金業務而言,這是因為我們在過去一年或一年半的遞延收入方面一直很緩慢,因此我們正在挖掘這個漏洞或我們從遞延收入餘額。
So in the course of this year we will be building that back up.
因此,在今年的過程中,我們將建立備份。
As I said, we expect Q1 unearned revenue to also return to normal historical sequential patterns.
正如我所說,我們預計第一季度未實現收入也將恢復到正常的歷史連續模式。
So we feel good about the opportunity to continue to drive bookings with Office, but in terms of the annuity revenue recognized growth that is impacted by the billings that we saw over the course of the last year.
因此,我們對繼續推動 Office 預訂的機會感到滿意,但就年金收入確認的增長而言,我們在去年看到的賬單影響了這一增長。
But having said that, we are certainly very optimistic about business uptake of Office 2010.
但話雖如此,我們當然對 Office 2010 的業務採用非常樂觀。
Operator
Operator
Heather Bellini, ISI.
希瑟·貝里尼,ISI。
Heather Bellini - Analyst
Heather Bellini - Analyst
I was wondering if you guys could talk about the decline in the consumer premium mix?
我想知道你們是否可以談談消費者溢價組合的下降?
And what percentage of the decline is related to emerging markets, and what are the other reasons, if that doesn't explain all of it?
下降的百分比與新興市場有關,如果這不能解釋所有原因,還有哪些其他原因?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
All of it.
所有的。
It is all related to the growth in emerging markets.
這一切都與新興市場的增長有關。
Heather Bellini - Analyst
Heather Bellini - Analyst
That was easy then.
那時很容易。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Philip Winslow, Credit Suisse.
菲利普·溫斯洛,瑞士信貸。
Philip Winslow - Analyst
Philip Winslow - Analyst
Great quarter.
很棒的季度。
I just wanted to have one question back on the Windows Division.
我只想問一個關於 Windows 部門的問題。
If you look at that commercial and retail license line it still remained very strong year-over-year and even sequentially.
如果你看一下商業和零售許可證線,它仍然保持非常強勁的同比甚至環比。
Obviously, in the first part of the fiscal year that was driven by consumers upgrading to Windows 7.
顯然,在消費者升級到 Windows 7 的推動下的財年第一部分。
Just what are you seeing there?
你在那裡看到了什麼?
Also, as we start to think about fiscal 11, obviously that doesn't include commercial licenses too.
此外,當我們開始考慮 11 財年時,顯然這也不包括商業許可證。
What would you expect for the impact of potentially enterprises upgrading to Windows 7 on top of the PC replacement cycle?
您對潛在企業在 PC 更換週期之上升級到 Windows 7 的影響有何預期?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
It is great.
太好了。
We are very optimistic about that opportunity, but remember it is a small part of the business.
我們對這個機會非常樂觀,但請記住,這只是業務的一小部分。
It is about 20% of the business.
它約佔業務的20%。
So while there is great intent to deploy, and we are already seeing great deployment, so that is a little bit of a tailwind, but it is not by any stretch of the imagination a material mover of the business.
因此,雖然有很大的部署意圖,而且我們已經看到了很好的部署,所以這有點順風,但無論如何它都不是業務的物質推動者。
But it is a nice attitude.
但這是一個很好的態度。
Operator
Operator
Sarah Friar, Goldman Sachs.
莎拉·弗萊爾,高盛。
Sarah Friar - Analyst
Sarah Friar - Analyst
Two questions.
兩個問題。
Just first on the overall environment, you sound incredibly upbeat.
首先是整體環境,你聽起來非常樂觀。
You clearly had a very strong quarter.
你顯然有一個非常強勁的季度。
Was there any shift as you got towards the end of the quarter, because clearly others through earnings have started to note more weakness in Europe, for example, or government spending.
到本季度末,您是否有任何轉變,因為顯然其他人通過收益已經開始注意到歐洲的更多疲軟,例如,或政府支出。
So I would just love to get your perspective.
所以我很想听聽你的看法。
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
We didn't really see any differences throughout the quarter.
我們在整個季度並沒有真正看到任何差異。
And we are encouraged.
我們受到鼓舞。
We had strong demand and strong sales execution, and obviously, did slightly better than we had hoped and talked about last quarter for our product set.
我們有強勁的需求和強大的銷售執行力,顯然,我們的產品集在上個季度的表現比我們希望和談論的要好一些。
So we are thrilled with customers adopting our products.
因此,我們對客戶採用我們的產品感到非常興奮。
And there was really no difference throughout the quarter.
整個季度真的沒有什麼不同。
Sarah Friar - Analyst
Sarah Friar - Analyst
So it sounds like with the product cycles your expectation is you can kick through even some slight decline on the macro side?
所以聽起來,隨著產品週期,你的期望是你可以在宏觀方面經歷一些輕微的下滑?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
Yes, we certainly feel really good about the traction of our product set, no doubt.
是的,毫無疑問,我們對我們的產品系列的吸引力確實感覺非常好。
Operator
Operator
Brent Thill, UBS.
瑞銀的布倫特希爾。
Brent Thill - Analyst
Brent Thill - Analyst
Peter, you are continuing your strong expense discipline in the quarter.
彼得,您在本季度繼續執行嚴格的支出紀律。
I'm just curious if you could talk about Cisco 11, and what really changes as we go into next year to continue that discipline?
我只是想知道您是否可以談論 Cisco 11,以及我們進入明年繼續這一學科的真正變化是什麼?
You did take your expense guidance down a little relative to your past guidance.
相對於過去的指導,您確實降低了您的費用指導。
Can you just explain what drove that?
你能解釋一下是什麼驅動的嗎?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
Yes, it is the same thing.
是的,這是一回事。
This is an ongoing process, something we think about every day.
這是一個持續的過程,我們每天都在思考。
And so continually as we go through, we are always scrubbing.
因此,在我們經歷的過程中,我們總是在擦洗。
We are always looking at our plans.
我們一直在關注我們的計劃。
We are always looking to make the most effective use of the money.
我們一直在尋求最有效地利用這筆錢。
As we have done that and we made progress, then we can lower our guidance, and that is just what we did.
當我們這樣做並取得進展時,我們可以降低我們的指導,這正是我們所做的。
We did better in Q4 than we expected, and we are continuing to take that into next year.
我們在第四季度的表現比我們預期的要好,我們將繼續把它帶到明年。
We will just focus on it continuously.
我們將持續關注它。
Operator
Operator
Katherine Egbert, Jefferies.
凱瑟琳·埃格伯特,傑富瑞。
Katherine Egbert - Analyst
Katherine Egbert - Analyst
Your contacted but not billed balance was up $1.5 billion this quarter.
本季度您已聯繫但未開單的餘額增加了 15 億美元。
Can you tell us about that?
你能告訴我們嗎?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
As we said, it was a strong bookings quarter all up, if you look at the revenue and the unearned and then CMB.
正如我們所說,這是一個強勁的預訂季度,如果你看看收入和未賺到的,然後是 CMB。
Our bookings growth was 27%, so it is reflective of the sales execution and the enterprise demand for our products.
我們的預訂量增長了 27%,因此它反映了銷售執行和企業對我們產品的需求。
It is interesting, Bill has touched on this, but it is very broad-based, across geographies and across products and across customer segments and size.
有趣的是,比爾談到了這一點,但它的基礎非常廣泛,跨越地域、跨越產品、跨越客戶群和規模。
So that is what is really driving that.
所以這才是真正推動它的原因。
Katherine Egbert - Analyst
Katherine Egbert - Analyst
Will that continue to increase?
還會繼續增加嗎?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
You know, I would just -- we haven't gotten given guidance on that.
你知道,我只是——我們還沒有得到這方面的指導。
We did give expectations on the unearned, so I would take that as a proxy for how things are going.
我們確實對不勞而獲的人給予了期望,所以我會把它作為事情進展的代表。
Operator
Operator
Kash Rangan, Merrill Lynch.
卡什蘭根,美林證券。
Kash Rangan - Analyst
Kash Rangan - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Looking at the unearned balance for Server and Tools and MBD, it looks like it is back up to multi-quarter highs.
看看服務器和工具和 MBD 的不勞而獲的餘額,它似乎回到了多個季度的高點。
Also, your unearned metric which you reported is well above what it has been -- the highest it has been in eight quarters.
此外,您報告的非勞動指標遠高於過去的水平——八個季度以來的最高水平。
Yet at the same time the guidance for the annuity and growth rate, it still sounds like we are in a recession, listening to your guidance, what seems to be a lower mid-single digit.
然而,在年金和增長率的指導下,聽起來我們仍然處於衰退中,聽你的指導,這似乎是一個較低的中個位數。
Can you help us understand the disconnect here?
你能幫助我們理解這裡的脫節嗎?
It seems to me that you are being a little bit conservative with your annuity guidance for what seems to be two big product lines, given the improvement in bookings, off-balance sheet and on-balance sheet.
在我看來,鑑於預訂、資產負債表外和資產負債表內的改善,您對似乎是兩大產品線的年金指導有點保守。
So it occurs to me as the deferred revenues start to build up, in your words, in the normal seasonality, that you should take your guidance up in the next three quarters.
因此,在我看來,隨著遞延收入開始增加,用您的話來說,在正常的季節性中,您應該在接下來的三個季度中提高您的指導。
So comments or reactions, explanation would be appreciated.
所以評論或反應,解釋將不勝感激。
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
What you are seeing is that as recognitions next year are a function of the deferreds that we have had.
你所看到的是,明年的認可是我們所擁有的延期的功能。
As you mentioned, this is the first quarter where we really bumped it up.
正如你所提到的,這是我們真正提升它的第一季度。
So the recognitions in the annuity revenue that you are seeing next year in the reported number is a function of the challenges we have had on our deferred balance.
因此,您明年在報告數字中看到的年金收入確認是我們在遞延餘額方面面臨的挑戰的函數。
So as we build up over time, you will start to see the annuity business fall through better.
因此,隨著我們隨著時間的推移建立起來,您將開始看到年金業務更好地失敗。
So that is what you will see you as you get towards the latter part of next year, because this is the first quarter where we really saw that unearned balance kick off.
所以這就是你在明年下半年看到的,因為這是我們真正看到不勞而獲的平衡開始的第一季度。
Kash Rangan - Analyst
Kash Rangan - Analyst
So if deferreds continue to build up normal [seasonality-wise], we should expect you to take your guidance up for the annuity growth rate in your two main businesses, right?
因此,如果遞延款繼續正常 [季節性地] 增加,我們應該期望您對您的兩個主要業務的年金增長率提高指導,對嗎?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
It is too early to tell.
現在說還為時過早。
You should take the guidance that we gave as our guidance for FY '11.
您應該將我們提供的指導作為 11 財年的指導。
Operator
Operator
Brad Reback, Oppenheimer.
布拉德·雷貝克,奧本海默。
Brad Reback - Analyst
Brad Reback - Analyst
Peter, in the slides on 18, it talks about COGS being negatively impacted next year.
彼得在 18 日的幻燈片中談到了明年 COGS 將受到負面影響。
Based on the expectation of mid teen growth in E&D can you give us any sense of what the headwind is on the COGS side?
基於對 E&D 中青少年增長的預期,您能否告訴我們 COGS 方面的逆風是什麼?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
What I tried to do is give you the drivers.
我試圖做的是給你驅動程序。
And I think you should go through your model and think about what assumptions you're going to make.
我認為你應該仔細研究你的模型並考慮你將做出什麼樣的假設。
And clearly the assumptions -- the biggest one that we like to call out, that we think is most material by far, is the growth in E&D and the headwinds from the hardware sales, which is obviously a great thing for the long term, but in the short term will provide a headwind to COGS.
很明顯的假設——我們想提出的最大的假設,我們認為迄今為止最重要的假設是 E&D 的增長和硬件銷售的逆風,從長遠來看,這顯然是一件好事,但是短期內將給 COGS 帶來不利影響。
So the reason we like to give you the drivers, it allows you the flexibility to work that through your model as you come up with your product mix.
因此,我們喜歡為您提供驅動程序的原因是,它允許您在提出產品組合時靈活地通過您的模型進行處理。
Brad Reback - Analyst
Brad Reback - Analyst
I understand.
我明白。
Not to pick here, but you did put the mid teen guidance out there.
不要選這裡,但你確實把中青年指南放在那裡。
So based on that there is no way to give us any sense of what type of headwind that generates, so we're all on the same page here?
因此,基於此,無法讓我們了解會產生哪種逆風,所以我們都在同一頁面上?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
I would just say do the math.
我只想說做數學。
I think you will -- it will come out whatever your assumptions are for the driver framework.
我想你會的——無論你對驅動程序框架的假設是什麼,它都會出來。
So let's move on to the next question.
那麼讓我們繼續下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Sandeep Aggarwal, Caris & Company.
Sandeep Aggarwal, Caris & Company。
Sandeep Aggarwal - Analyst
Sandeep Aggarwal - Analyst
Peter, we are in the middle for our enterprise refresh, and premium mix for business edition has gone up from 28% to 29%.
彼得,我們處於企業更新的中間階段,商業版的高級組合已從 28% 上升到 29%。
But if I look at the historical trend during the middle of enterprise refresh, actually you have been in mid to late 30s in terms of the business premium mix.
但如果我看一下企業更新中期的歷史趨勢,實際上你在業務溢價組合方面已經處於 30 年代中後期。
Why has it only seen only 100 basis point improvement, or is there a time maybe next -- a few quarters where we can see it reaching to the historical level?
為什麼它只看到了 100 個基點的改善,或者下一個時間——我們可以看到它達到歷史水平的幾個季度?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
I would say, one, it is early in the refresh cycle, so we should watch it.
我想說,一,它處於刷新周期的早期,所以我們應該注意它。
I think that really is the answer.
我認為這確實是答案。
Operator
Operator
Ed Maguire, CLSA.
埃德·馬奎爾,里昂證券。
Ed Maguire - Analyst
Ed Maguire - Analyst
Last quarter you provided some metrics around your Online Services subscriptions.
上個季度,您提供了一些關於您的在線服務訂閱的指標。
Could you provide some come, at least, directional indications?
您能否提供一些至少有方向性的指示?
And help us understand as well some of the traction around Azure and how that may be impacting some of the traditional server revenues?
並幫助我們了解 Azure 的一些吸引力,以及這可能如何影響一些傳統服務器的收入?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
As we talked about on the commercial -- the productivity Online Services, as Bill talked about, 70% of those wins have been competitive wins, which has just been really good.
正如我們在商業上談到的——正如比爾所說的生產力在線服務,70% 的勝利都是競爭性的勝利,這真的很好。
We are really accelerating the traction there.
我們真的在加速那裡的牽引力。
On the Azure side, it is early.
在蔚藍這邊,時間還早。
We just launched that this year.
我們今年剛剛推出。
The productivity of Online Services are farther along from a customer perspective, but we have really accelerated the developers and the users we have on the Azure platform.
從客戶的角度來看,在線服務的生產力更進一步,但我們確實加速了我們在 Azure 平台上擁有的開發人員和用戶。
It is not material to the financials now, but we are really establishing a leadership position of users.
現在對財務來說並不重要,但我們確實在建立用戶的領導地位。
We have had some -- on the productivity side we have had some great wins.
我們取得了一些成果——在生產力方面,我們取得了一些偉大的勝利。
We had the State of Kentucky, which is many, many -- 700,000 users.
我們有肯塔基州,它有很多很多—— 700,000 個用戶。
So acceleration and continued progress in leadership in that.
因此,在這方面的領導力加速和持續進步。
Operator
Operator
Gregg Moskowitz, Cowen.
格雷格莫斯科維茨,考恩。
Gregg Moskowitz - Analyst
Gregg Moskowitz - Analyst
Just a follow-up on office 2010.
只是office 2010的後續。
Qualitatively, Peter, how are you thinking about consumer and enterprise adoption rates in the first 12 months or so post-release as compared with a similar period with regard to Office 2007?
定性地說,Peter,與 Office 2007 的類似時期相比,您如何看待發布後前 12 個月左右的消費者和企業採用率?
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
You should just take the guidance that we gave you.
你應該接受我們給你的指導。
And on the non-annuity side we sort of expected to track PC shipments, which is a pretty strong result, especially given the mix of PCs to emerging markets, where we have slightly lower attach.
在非年金方面,我們預計會跟踪 PC 出貨量,這是一個相當強勁的結果,特別是考慮到 PC 與新興市場的混合,我們的附加值略低。
So we will -- this quarter will be a big quarter.
所以我們將 - 本季度將是一個重要的季度。
We will look at the back-to-school and see how you're doing, but other than that, we are very excited, off to a great start.
我們將查看返校情況,看看你的表現如何,但除此之外,我們非常興奮,有了一個良好的開端。
As you saw, the 51% number is a very strong member for early on.
正如你所看到的,51% 的數字在早期是一個非常強大的成員。
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Barb, let's move on, let's make this the last question.
Barb,讓我們繼續,讓我們把這個作為最後一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Rob Breza, RBC Capital Markets.
Rob Breza,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Rob Breza - Analyst
Rob Breza - Analyst
Thanks for sneaking me in.
謝謝你偷偷帶我進去。
Just quickly maybe as a follow-up to Greg's question, as you look at the PC shipments your expectations for Q1 are helpful.
很快,也許作為 Greg 問題的後續行動,當您查看 PC 出貨量時,您對第一季度的期望會有所幫助。
As we look at the trend in the second half of the year, would it be natural to assume after back-to-school, holiday season that we see a slight tail off?
當我們觀察下半年的趨勢時,是否可以自然地假設在開學、假期後我們會看到輕微的尾巴?
Can you just give us maybe a front half, kind of second half thought?
你能不能給我們一個前半部分,有點像後半部分的想法?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Peter Klein - CFO
Peter Klein - CFO
We are not giving color on half by half.
我們不會一半一半地給顏色。
The one thing I would say that will continue all year is that emerging markets will continue to grow faster than developed markets, and that has an impact on our business.
我想說的一件事會持續一整年,那就是新興市場的增長速度將繼續快於發達市場,這對我們的業務產生了影響。
Rob Breza - Analyst
Rob Breza - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Bill Koefoed - General Manager IR
Okay, so that will wrap up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call.
好的,這將結束今天財報電話會議的問答部分。
We look forward to seeing many of you at the financial analyst meeting next week where we will provide more details about our long-term strategies, and provide you with a hands-on opportunity to experience our technology and engage in great discussions with our management team.
我們期待在下週的金融分析師會議上見到你們中的許多人,屆時我們將提供有關我們長期戰略的更多細節,並為您提供親身體驗我們的技術並與我們的管理團隊進行精彩討論的機會.
For those of you who are unable to attend in person, you will be able to follow the day from our Investor Relations website at Microsoft.com/msft.
對於那些無法親自出席的人,您可以通過我們的投資者關係網站 Microsoft.com/msft 了解當天的情況。
Please contact us if you need additional details.
如果您需要更多詳細信息,請與我們聯繫。
We sincerely hope to see there.
我們真誠地希望看到那裡。
Thanks again for joining us today, and have a great day.
再次感謝您今天加入我們,祝您有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
That concludes today's call.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
Please disconnect your lines at this time.
此時請斷開您的線路。