微軟 (MSFT) 2009 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Microsoft third-quarter 2009 fiscal year conference call. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Bill Koefoed, General Manager, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

歡迎參加 Microsoft 2009 財年第三季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）。今天的電話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係部總經理 Bill Koefoed 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thanks everyone for joining us today on our third-quarter earnings call. I am joined today by Chris Liddell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.

感謝大家今天加入我們的第三季度財報電話會議。今天，高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris Liddell 加入了我的行列； Frank Brod，公司副總裁兼首席會計官；和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。

The format for today's call will be as follows. Chris will summarize some of the key takeaways for the quarter. I will then provide details around our third-quarter results, and then hand it back to Chris for a more detailed discussion of our business outlook. After that we will take your questions.

今天電話會議的格式如下。克里斯將總結本季度的一些關鍵要點。然後，我將提供有關我們第三季度業績的詳細信息，然後將其交還給克里斯，以更詳細地討論我們的業務前景。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please be aware that we filed our Form 10-Q today in conjunction with our earnings release. We have also posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks, as well as provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will talk about today. You can find these documents at the Investor Relations website at www.Microsoft.com/MSFT.

請注意，我們今天連同我們的收益發布一起提交了表格 10-Q。我們還發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在遵循我們準備好的評論的流程，並提供我們今天將要討論的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的對賬。您可以在投資者關係網站 www.Microsoft.com/MSFT 上找到這些文件。

Today's call will be webcast live and recorded. Please be aware that if you decide to ask a question, it will be included in both our live transmission as well as any future use of the recording. A replay of the call will be available at the Microsoft Investor Relations website through the close of business on April 22, 2010.

今天的電話將進行網絡直播和錄製。請注意，如果您決定提出問題，它將包含在我們的實時傳輸以及將來對錄音的任何使用中。微軟投資者關係網站將在 2010 年 4 月 22 日收盤前重播電話會議。

This conference call report is protected by copyright law and international treaties. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this report or any portion of it, without the express permission of Microsoft, may result in civil and criminal penalties.

本電話會議報告受版權法和國際條約的保護。未經 Microsoft 明確許可，未經授權複製或分發本報告或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。

We will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-Q, our most recent Form 10-K, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。由於今天的收益新聞稿、本次電話會議期間的評論以及我們的 10-Q 表格、我們最近的 10-K 表格以及其他報告和文件的風險因素部分中討論的因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異與證券交易委員會。我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

And now I will turn the call over to Chris.

現在我將把電話轉給克里斯。

Our third-quarter results reflect a combination of two forces. Firstly, the most difficult economic environment the Company has faced in our 30 year history, but offset by Company specific factors.

我們的第三季度業績反映了兩種力量的結合。首先，公司面臨 30 年曆史上最困難的經濟環境，但被公司特定因素所抵消。

On the macroeconomic front we saw a broad-based slowdown across virtually all product lines and geographies. Our transactional revenues, for example, in our emerging markets in particular were impacted by the economic reset that we are all seeing, with demand down as much as 15% to 20%.

在宏觀經濟方面，我們看到幾乎所有產品線和地區都出現了廣泛的放緩。例如，我們在新興市場的交易收入受到了我們都看到的經濟重置的影響，需求下降了 15% 到 20%。

Against that backdrop, while I can't be happy with any quarter where our revenue and earnings per share decreased, I was actually pleased with our relative performance. First, our annuity licensing held up well, reflecting the strength of our diversified business model. Second, we managed expenses significantly below our expectations going into the quarter, which is a credit to our employees' ability to adapt to a new reality.

在這種背景下，雖然我對我們的收入和每股收益下降的任何季度都不滿意，但我實際上對我們的相對錶現感到滿意。一是年金牌照保持良好，體現了多元化經營模式的實力。其次，我們在本季度管理的費用大大低於我們的預期，這歸功於我們員工適應新現實的能力。

Third, despite all the distractions, including the first significant layoff the Company has ever implemented, we executed on our product development milestones.

第三，儘管存在種種干擾，包括公司實施的第一次重大裁員，我們仍執行了我們的產品開發里程碑。

Globally overall IT spend, and in particular business hardware purchasing, continued to slow from the levels seen in the second quarter, and severely impacted transactional license sales in our Client, Microsoft Business Division and Server and Tools businesses.

全球整體 IT 支出，尤其是企業硬件採購，繼續低於第二季度的水平，並嚴重影響了我們的客戶端、微軟業務部門以及服務器和工具業務的交易許可銷售。

We did see some pockets of strength, reflecting consumers' desire to purchase down the price point. For example, we saw healthy unit volumes at netbooks, Office Suites at retail and Xbox 360 consoles.

我們確實看到了一些實力，反映了消費者在價格點上購買的願望。例如，我們在上網本、零售辦公套件和 Xbox 360 遊戲機上看到了健康的單位銷量。

Geographically mature markets slowed noticeably, while emerging markets, which has historically have been sources of strong revenue growth for us, reported even deeper declines than mature markets.

地理上成熟的市場明顯放緩，而歷來為我們帶來強勁收入增長的新興市場，其下降幅度甚至超過成熟市場。

Our annuity business is clearly our bright spot. With strong sales execution, corporate customers are renewing their long-term commitment with us, which reflects both the value of our current product portfolio and anticipated future product innovation.

我們的年金業務顯然是我們的亮點。憑藉強大的銷售執行力，企業客戶正在重申他們對我們的長期承諾，這既反映了我們當前產品組合的價值，也反映了預期的未來產品創新。

On the expense side we executed against cost saving initiatives with production down across the board, marketing, vendor costs and other discretionary spend, as well as a reduction in headcount and headcount related costs, and lower capital expenditure.

在費用方面，我們執行了成本節約計劃，全面降低生產、營銷、供應商成本和其他可自由支配的支出，以及減少員工人數和員工人數相關成本，並降低資本支出。

We ended the quarter with 800 less employees than we started the quarter with. And importantly we are also seeing our people focus on efficiency and the need for fiscal discipline.

我們在本季度末的員工人數比本季度開始時少 800 人。重要的是，我們還看到我們的員工關注效率和財政紀律的必要性。

We accomplished this while also focusing on operational excellence. This quarter we made significant product development progress towards the next wave of products and services. Over the next 18 months we will be delivering updates to our core franchises, namely Windows 7, Windows Server, and Office 2010, as well as bringing new services, like Windows Azure, to market.

我們做到了這一點，同時也專注於卓越運營。本季度，我們在下一波產品和服務方面取得了重大的產品開發進展。在接下來的 18 個月中，我們將更新我們的核心系列產品，即 Windows 7、Windows Server 和 Office 2010，並將 Windows Azure 等新服務推向市場。

So in summary we ran cautious, but more cautious than most about the state of the world economy. Our globally diversified business gives us insight into a world where economic pressures are both broad and deep. While we would all like to think that our recovery will be soon and painless, we unfortunately believe that it will be slow and gradual.

因此，總而言之，我們對世界經濟狀況持謹慎態度，但比大多數人都更加謹慎。我們的全球多元化業務讓我們洞察了一個經濟壓力既廣泛又深刻的世界。雖然我們都願意認為我們的康復會很快且無痛，但不幸的是，我們相信這將是緩慢而漸進的。

We expect trading conditions to remain very difficult through the next quarter, and potentially through the balance of this calendar year. Against that backdrop we have to focus on our relative performance. We have the benefit of a strong annuity business, which partially insulates us. We can continue to be tight on costs. We can continue to focus on maximizing what is the strongest cash flow of any company in the industry. And we will continue to launch a countercyclical wave of products over the next 12 to 18 months, which will help growth in fiscal year '10 and beyond.

我們預計下個季度的交易條件將仍然非常困難，並且可能在本日曆年的剩餘時間內。在這種背景下，我們必須關注我們的相對錶現。我們受益於強大的年金業務，這部分地使我們絕緣。我們可以繼續緊縮成本。我們可以繼續專注於最大化業內任何公司最強勁的現金流。我們將在未來 12 到 18 個月內繼續推出一波反週期產品，這將有助於 10 財年及以後的增長。

So with those high-level themes, I will turn the call over to Bill for more details on the third quarter.

因此，對於這些高級主題，我將把電話轉給比爾，以了解第三季度的更多細節。

As Chris mentioned, our revenue results were impacted by a weak macroeconomic environment, however strong execution on our cost initiatives helped to offset the impact to operating income.

正如克里斯所說，我們的收入結果受到宏觀經濟環境疲軟的影響，但我們成本計劃的強有力執行有助於抵消對營業收入的影響。

I'm going to provide you with details on our financial performance. I will start with the overall Company business and financial momentum points, and then follow-up with revenue performance for each of the business units. All growth comparisons I mention relate to the comparable year of last year, unless otherwise specified.

我將為您提供有關我們財務業績的詳細信息。我將從公司的整體業務和財務動力點開始，然後跟進每個業務部門的收入表現。除非另有說明，否則我提到的所有增長比較都與去年的可比年份有關。

Overall, revenue declined 6% to $13.6 billion, due to continued weakness in global demand, particularly in the business PC and server hardware markets. Despite this revenue shortfall, excluding the $0.06 of charges related to severance and investment impairments, earnings per share for the quarter were $0.39, in line with expectations.

總體而言，由於全球需求持續疲軟，尤其是商用 PC 和服務器硬件市場，收入下降 6% 至 136 億美元。儘管存在收入短缺，但不包括與遣散費和投資減值相關的 0.06 美元費用，本季度每股收益為 0.39 美元，符合預期。

Within the business results the transactional portions of our business are down substantially as a result of weakness in the associated markets, while our annuity business remains healthy. Within our customer segment, small and midmarket customers remain the most severely impacted by the current economic condition. In the consumer segment we have seen healthy volumes in the lower priced products, but experienced weakness in the higher priced SKUs, as can be expected in this environment.

在業務結果中，由於相關市場的疲軟，我們業務的交易部分大幅下降，而我們的年金業務保持健康。在我們的客戶群中，中小型市場客戶仍然是受當前經濟狀況影響最嚴重的客戶。在消費領域，我們看到低價產品的銷量健康，但高價 SKU 的銷量疲軟，正如在這種環境下可以預期的那樣。

The enterprise customer segment has held up, and renewal rates were stable and within our historical range. Driven by these dynamics our product billing mix continues to shift toward our annuity licensing, which is up 5 percentage points from the prior year to about 35%.

企業客戶群保持穩定，續訂率穩定在我們的歷史範圍內。在這些動態的推動下，我們的產品計費組合繼續轉向我們的年金許可，這比上一年增加了 5 個百分點，達到約 35%。

The remaining billing mix was approximately 30% from OEMs, 15% from transactional license only sales, with the balance from our other businesses. Unearned revenue grew 1% year over year to $12.3 billion. Our contract and not billed balance exceeds $12.5 billion, and was also up year-over-year.

剩餘的計費組合約為 30% 來自 OEM，15% 來自僅交易許可銷售，其餘來自我們的其他業務。未實現收入同比增長 1% 至 123 億美元。我們的合同和未開票餘額超過 125 億美元，並且同比增長。

Overall total bookings for the Company declined 15%, driven by the declines in the transactional portions of our business. Foreign exchange rate fluctuations did not materially impact overall revenue growth this quarter.

由於我們業務的交易部分下降，公司的總預訂量下降了 15%。匯率波動並未對本季度的整體收入增長產生重大影響。

Now let me move to the revenue and business drivers by segment, beginning with Windows Client. I will start with some commentary on the PC market. We saw continued deterioration in the overall PC hardware market, which we estimate to have declined back 7% to 9%. Traditional or non-netbook PCs were down 15% to 17% compared with the year ago quarter. We have seen continued weakness in the business segment of the PC market as companies cut their IT hardware spending and extended hardware refresh cycles.

現在讓我從 Windows 客戶端開始按細分市場討論收入和業務驅動因素。我將從個人電腦市場的一些評論開始。我們看到整個 PC 硬件市場持續惡化，我們估計已經回落 7% 至 9%。與去年同期相比，傳統或非上網本 PC 下降了 15% 至 17%。隨著公司削減 IT 硬件支出和延長硬件更新周期，我們看到 PC 市場的業務部門持續疲軟。

The small notebook PCs, or netbook category of the market, continued its growth and represented about 10% of the total PC shipments for the quarter. Unit sales in the consumer segment of the market benefited from the growth in the netbook category, and were about flat year-over-year.

小型筆記本電腦或上網本市場繼續增長，佔本季度 PC 總出貨量的 10% 左右。市場消費部分的單位銷售額受益於上網本類別的增長，與去年同期相比基本持平。

So with that market context, let me move on to Client. Client revenue was $3.4 billion, down 16% from a year ago. This decline is consistent with the framework we provided to you last quarter, with Client revenue declining in line with the traditional portion of the PC hardware market. Overall OEM unit sales declined 6%, performing slightly better than the overall PC market due to a tax rate improvement. The particularly strong attach rate in netbooks illustrates that customers continue to prefer Windows.

因此，在這種市場背景下，讓我繼續討論客戶。客戶收入為 34 億美元，同比下降 16%。這一下降與我們上個季度提供給您的框架一致，客戶收入下降與 PC 硬件市場的傳統部分一致。由於稅率提高，整體 OEM 單位銷售額下降 6%，表現略好於整體 PC 市場。上網本特別高的附加率表明客戶繼續偏愛 Windows。

OEM revenue was down 19%, driven by the dynamics in the underlying PC market. Specifically sales of premium SKUs were down over 20%, primarily due to the declines in the traditional business PC market I mentioned. Particularly offsetting the decline -- partially offsetting the decline in premium units was strong growth in our lower-priced netbook software.

受基礎 PC 市場動態的推動，OEM 收入下降了 19%。具體來說，高端 SKU 的銷售額下降了 20% 以上，主要是由於我提到的傳統商務 PC 市場的下滑。特別是抵消了下降——部分抵消了高端單位的下降是我們低價上網本軟件的強勁增長。

The commercial and retail portion of the Client business grew 1%. The enterprise annuity business continued to have healthy growth. This growth was partially offset by lower retail sales attributable to general consumer spending softness, as well as some normal slowing ahead of a major product release.

客戶業務的商業和零售部分增長了 1%。企業年金業務繼續健康增長。這一增長被整體消費者支出疲軟導致的零售銷售下降以及主要產品發布前的一些正常放緩所部分抵消。

Against the current economic backdrop, the Client revenue remained -- the Client division remains focused on execution and delivering on the product pipeline. During the quarter we released the public beta of Windows 7. We feel very good about the response we are getting to Windows 7 beta testers, and our progress against the next milestone, which is the release candidate.

在當前的經濟背景下，客戶收入仍然存在——客戶部門仍然專注於執行和交付產品管道。在本季度，我們發布了 Windows 7 的公開測試版。我們對 Windows 7 測試版測試人員的反應以及我們在下一個里程碑（即發布候選版本）方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。

We also delivered significant innovations to browser, with the release of Internet Explorer 8, which has also received strong press and analyst reviews. We remain very positive about the client product pipeline and its ability to drive long-term growth for the Company.

隨著 Internet Explorer 8 的發布，我們還對瀏覽器進行了重大創新，該版本也獲得了媒體和分析師的強烈評價。我們對客戶產品線及其推動公司長期增長的能力仍然非常樂觀。

On the marketing side we have seen a measurable perception increase for Windows from our recent advertising campaign. Specifically our research shows a 10% increase in preference for Windows PCs since these campaigns launched.

在營銷方面，我們從最近的廣告活動中看到了對 Windows 的顯著提升。具體而言，我們的研究表明，自這些活動啟動以來，對 Windows PC 的偏好增加了 10%。

Now let's move to Server and Tools, where revenues grew 7% to $3.5 billion. Revenue was driven by double-digit growth in our enterprise annuity business from sales of premium editions of Windows Server 2008 and SQL Server 2008, in addition to strong growth in System Center Management Suites.

現在讓我們轉向服務器和工具，其收入增長了 7%，達到 35 億美元。除了系統中心管理套件的強勁增長外，收入還受到 Windows Server 2008 和 SQL Server 2008 高級版銷售的企業年金業務兩位數增長的推動。

The consulting and support services portion of Server and Tools revenue grew 6%. Revenue from the transactional and OEM portions of the business declined over 15% during the quarter, in line with the estimates for the underlying x86 Server hardware market.

服務器和工具收入的諮詢和支持服務部分增長了 6%。本季度該業務的交易和 OEM 部分的收入下降了 15% 以上，與對基礎 x86 服務器硬件市場的估計一致。

Industry analysts continued to publish healthy market share performance for Windows Server 2008, a validation of the competitive benefits it provides to customers. On the product front, the Server and Tools division delivered the beta release of Windows Server 2008 R2, which builds on the value of Windows Server, with new features like Live Migration. In addition, we released a beta version of Silverlight 3, which delivers new functionality to run Silverlight applications off-line.

行業分析師繼續發布 Windows Server 2008 健康的市場份額表現，證明了它為客戶提供的競爭優勢。在產品方面，服務器和工具部門發布了 Windows Server 2008 R2 的 beta 版本，它建立在 Windows Server 的價值之上，具有實時遷移等新功能。此外，我們發布了 Silverlight 3 的測試版，它提供了離線運行 Silverlight 應用程序的新功能。

Moving onto the Online Services Business, revenue declined $122 million, or 14%. Online advertising revenue was down 16%, primarily due to the significant decline in display advertising rates across the industry. Partially offsetting this was continued growth in both page views and search queries.

轉向在線服務業務，收入下降了 1.22 億美元，即 14%。在線廣告收入下降 16%，主要是由於整個行業的展示廣告費率大幅下降。部分抵消這一點的是頁面瀏覽量和搜索查詢的持續增長。

The Microsoft Business Division had revenue of $4.5 billion, which declined 5%, due to declines in non-annuity licensing. This transactional revenue was primarily impacted by the traditional PC market decline. We increased attach with pricing promotions, but due to the lower prices and PC sales, overall transactional revenue declined more than 25%. This decline was partially offset by healthy 15% revenue growth from our annuity business.

由於非年金許可的減少，微軟業務部門的收入為 45 億美元，下降了 5%。這一交易收入主要受到傳統個人電腦市場下滑的影響。我們通過價格促銷增加了附加值，但由於較低的價格和 PC 銷售，整體交易收入下降了 25% 以上。這一下降被我們年金業務 15% 的健康收入增長部分抵消。

In the quarter we continued to see strong demand in our SharePoint, Office Communications Server, and CRM products, which all grew more than 20%. On the product front, during the quarter we released a new version of our Unified Communications offering with Office Communications Server 2007 R2.

在本季度，我們繼續看到對我們的 SharePoint、Office Communications Server 和 CRM 產品的強勁需求，這些產品均增長了 20% 以上。在產品方面，本季度我們發布了新版本的統一通信產品與 Office Communications Server 2007 R2。

Additionally, last week we announced a timeline for our next release of Office 2010, and made available the beta version of Exchange 2010, which will be for sale in the second half of calendar 2009.

此外，上週我們宣布了下一個 Office 2010 版本的時間表，並提供了 Exchange 2010 的測試版，該版本將於 2009 年下半年發售。

Moving to the Entertainment and Devices Division, revenue decreased 2% to $1.6 billion. The Xbox 360 business had a very strong quarter, selling over 1.7 million consoles. This represents growth of almost 30% over the prior year. This fiscal year to date we have already sold approximately 10 million consoles, about 15% more than we sold in all of last year.

轉到娛樂和設備部門，收入下降 2% 至 16 億美元。 Xbox 360 業務的季度表現非常強勁，售出超過 170 萬台遊戲機。這意味著比上一年增長了近 30%。本財年迄今為止，我們已經售出了大約 1000 萬台遊戲機，比我們去年全年的銷量高出約 15%。

Attach rates for Xbox continue to lead the industry with software attach rates growing to 8.3, and accessories attach rates growing to 3.9. In addition, Xbox Live is a key differentiator for our platform. For example, 1 million Xbox Live Gold numbers have activated Netflix for the on Xbox LIVE. You will hear more about our Xbox Live progress at E3 in June.

Xbox 的附加率繼續引領行業，軟件附加率增長到 8.3，配件附加率增長到 3.9。此外，Xbox Live 是我們平台的一個關鍵差異化因素。例如，100 萬個 Xbox Live Gold 號碼激活了 Netflix 上的 Xbox LIVE。您將在 6 月的 E3 上聽到有關我們 Xbox Live 進展的更多信息。

During the quarter we unveiled Windows Mobile 6.5, the next version of our Windows Mobile software platform. You can expect to see phones running Windows Mobile 6.5 by the fourth quarter of this calendar year.

在本季度，我們發布了 Windows Mobile 6.5，這是我們 Windows Mobile 軟件平台的下一個版本。您可以期待在本日曆年第四季度看到運行 Windows Mobile 6.5 的手機。

Now for the rest of the income statement. Cost of revenue increased 12%, primarily given by increased distribution and data center costs. Operating expenses decreased $1.3 billion, or 16%. This year's results were impacted by $290 million of employee severance charges as a result of our announced plans to eliminate up to 5,000 positions. Prior year's results included [$1.4 billion] (corrected by company after the call) in certain legal charges. Adjusting for these items, operating expenses were down 2% year-over-year, and 10% sequentially due to our focus on efficiency that Chris described earlier.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。收入成本增加了 12%，主要是由於分銷和數據中心成本增加。運營費用減少了 13 億美元，即 16%。由於我們宣布計劃裁撤多達 5,000 個職位，今年的業績受到 2.9 億美元的員工遣散費的影響。上一年的業績包括某些法律費用 [14 億美元]（由公司在電話會議後更正）。調整這些項目後，運營費用同比下降 2%，環比下降 10%，這是由於我們對 Chris 之前描述的效率的關注。

Operating income of $4.4 billion was up 3%, but down 17% after adjusting for impact of the employee severance and legal charges from the current and prior years. Other income and expense was a net loss of $388 million, and includes $420 million of impairment charges on investments, primarily due to the continued declines in the markets.

營業收入為 44 億美元，增長 3%，但在調整了當前和往年的員工遣散費和法律費用的影響後下降了 17%。其他收入和支出淨虧損 3.88 億美元，其中包括 4.2 億美元的投資減值費用，主要是由於市場持續下跌。

Given the uncertainty and volatility of market conditions, we remain focused on cash and working capital management. The company Generated $5.4 billion, or $0.61 per share in free cash flow this quarter, reflecting moderated operating expenses and capital expenditures. We have maintained our AAA debt rating, and rebuilt cash to over $25 billion, while returning $1.2 billion in cash to shareholders through dividend.

鑑於市場狀況的不確定性和波動性，我們仍然專注於現金和營運資金管理。該公司本季度產生了 54 億美元或每股 0.61 美元的自由現金流，反映了運營費用和資本支出的放緩。我們維持 AAA 債務評級，並將現金重建至超過 250 億美元，同時通過股息向股東返還 12 億美元現金。

Our effective tax rate was 26.5% for the quarter, in line with the guidance we provided. Diluted shares outstanding for the quarter were $8.9 billion, down back 6% from the prior year. As I mentioned earlier, excluding the severance and impairment charges of $0.06, earnings per share for the quarter were $0.39, meeting expectations.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 26.5%，與我們提供的指導一致。本季度的稀釋後流通股為 89 億美元，比上年下降 6%。正如我之前提到的，不包括 0.06 美元的遣散費和減值費用，本季度每股收益為 0.39 美元，符合預期。

In summary, we remain focused in the areas we can control, and in the third quarter delivering meaningful cost savings and significant progress on our product pipeline. With that, let me turn it back to Chris, who will provide you with more insight into our business outlook.

總而言之，我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的領域，並在第三季度實現有意義的成本節約和產品管道的重大進展。有了這個，讓我把它轉回到克里斯，他將為您提供更多關於我們的業務前景的見解。

The remainder of the call I will speak to our broad expectations for the fourth quarter and our preliminary view of fiscal year '10. As I mentioned in the opening remarks, we witnessed a deterioration of spending levels through the third quarter as macro factors pressured hardware markets, IT budgets and advertising spend.

在電話會議的其餘部分，我將談到我們對第四季度的廣泛預期以及我們對 10 財年的初步看法。正如我在開場白中提到的，由於宏觀因素對硬件市場、IT 預算和廣告支出造成壓力，我們目睹了整個第三季度的支出水平惡化。

In the fourth quarter we expect the overall spending environment to remain difficult. Given the numerous ongoing trends though, rather than providing a static quantitative revenue and earnings per share guidance, we recommend that you look at the market drivers of our business using the following framework.

我們預計第四季度整體支出環境仍將艱難。不過，鑑於眾多持續趨勢，我們建議您使用以下框架查看我們業務的市場驅動因素，而不是提供靜態的定量收入和每股收益指導。

In the Client business PC shipments remain the primary driver of revenue, and we expect traditional PC shipments, those excluding netbook, to remain weak. In the fourth quarter we expect Client revenue to be in line with or slightly below the growth rate in the traditional PC market, based on a year ago comparable which had higher than normal levels of inventory at OEM and at retail, and continued weakness of business PC demand, which has a higher associated selling price. We expect the netbook mix of total PCs to follow the trend seen in Q3.

在客戶端業務中，PC 出貨量仍然是收入的主要驅動力，我們預計傳統 PC 出貨量（不包括上網本）將保持疲軟。在第四季度，我們預計客戶收入將與傳統 PC 市場的增長率持平或略低於增長率，這是基於一年前的可比性，後者的 OEM 和零售庫存高於正常水平，並且業務持續疲軟PC 需求，具有更高的相關售價。我們預計上網本的 PC 總量將跟隨第三季度的趨勢。

In the Microsoft Business Division, traditional consumer and business PC shipments remain the primary drivers of approximately 40% of the segment's revenue, which is transactional in nature. This revenue is the most susceptible to the volatile market conditions. In the fourth quarter we expect this part of the revenue to lag traditional PC shipments by several points, a result of general purchasing power weakness from small and midmarket customers, and continued inventory contraction at retail and OEM.

在微軟業務部門，傳統的消費者和商用 PC 出貨量仍然是該部門約 40% 收入的主要驅動力，這屬於交易性質。這種收入最容易受到波動的市場條件的影響。在第四季度，我們預計這部分收入將落後於傳統 PC 出貨量幾個百分點，原因是中小型市場客戶普遍購買力疲軟，以及零售和 OEM 庫存持續收縮。

The remaining 60% of MBD revenue is from annuity licensing, which has been supported by the strength of new growth businesses like SharePoint and Unified Communications. In the fourth quarter we expect positive annuity growth of single digits, slightly ahead of overall IT spend.

MBD 剩餘 60% 的收入來自年金許可，這得到了 SharePoint 和統一通信等新增長業務的支持。在第四季度，我們預計年金將實現個位數的正增長，略高於整體 IT 支出。

The pipeline for annuity contracts in the fourth quarter includes a large renewal wave, which we are optimistic on closing given our year-to-date performance, but there are clearly risks from lengthening sales cycles.

第四季度年金合同的管道包括一個大的續約浪潮，鑑於我們今年迄今為止的表現，我們對結束持樂觀態度，但顯然存在延長銷售週期的風險。

Like MBD, the Server and Tools segment includes both transactional and annuity licensing components. We expect the transactional portion of the business, which is about 30% of the total, to generally align to the server hardware markets. Third-party analysts expect those server hardware shipments to be consistent with the third quarter, and then therefore remain weak. The remaining annuity licensing and Enterprise Services portions of the Server and Tools segment will trend towards overall IT spend.

與 MBD 一樣，服務器和工具部分包括交易和年金許可組件。我們預計該業務的交易部分（約佔總數的 30%）將大致與服務器硬件市場保持一致。第三方分析師預計這些服務器硬件出貨量將與第三季度保持一致，因此仍然疲軟。服務器和工具部分的剩餘年金許可和企業服務部分將趨向於整體 IT 支出。

Our OSB revenue, excluding our legacy Access business, should mirror the online advertising spending market. Volumes should continue to increase. But monetization rates in particular, the display advertising portion of our business, will remain under pressure.

我們的 OSB 收入（不包括我們的傳統 Access 業務）應該反映在線廣告支出市場。交易量應該會繼續增加。但貨幣化率，尤其是我們業務的展示廣告部分，仍將面臨壓力。

The Entertainment and Devices Division's primary driver remains consumer sentiment and spending. Our overall market position in volumes remain very good, but console revenue, representing 30% of the segment, should decline in the fourth quarter as a result of our earlier pricing actions and a mix shift to lower-priced consoles.

娛樂和設備部門的主要驅動力仍然是消費者情緒和支出。我們在銷量方面的整體市場地位仍然非常好，但佔該細分市場 30% 的遊戲機收入應該會在第四季度下降，這是由於我們早期的定價行動和向低價遊戲機的混合轉變。

Console attach rate of revenue, representing another 30% of revenue, should benefit on a year-over-year basis from the increased installed base of consoles, partially offset by moderating attach rates. The other non-gaming portions of the business should still be impacted by the underlying PC market and overall consumer spending behavior.

佔收入的另外 30% 的遊戲機附加收入率應該會因遊戲機安裝基數的增加而同比受益，部分被適度的附加率所抵消。該業務的其他非遊戲部分仍應受到潛在 PC 市場和整體消費者支出行為的影響。

In summary, the transactional consumer and advertising revenue will remain under significant pressure until market conditions improve, offset by annuity revenue, which will start to converse with, but still outperform, overall IT spend.

總而言之，在市場狀況改善之前，交易性消費者和廣告收入將繼續承受巨大壓力，這將被年金收入所抵消，年金收入將開始與整體 IT 支出相反，但仍優於整體 IT 支出。

With those things on revenue, I will turn to our expectations of fourth-quarter operating expenses. Given the progress made on cost reductions in the first quarter, we have further reducing our full-year operating expense guidance by up to $1 billion from the guidance we provided to you last quarter of $27.4 billion. This is on top of the $1.5 billion decrease we forecast in our January call, so it totals up to $2.5 billion in savings from our original July guidance last year.

有了這些關於收入的東西，我將轉向我們對第四季度運營費用的預期。鑑於第一季度在降低成本方面取得的進展，我們將我們的全年運營費用指引從我們上一季度提供給您的 274 億美元的指引中進一步減少了 10 億美元。這是我們在 1 月份電話會議中預測的 15 億美元減少的基礎上，因此與我們去年 7 月的原始指導相比，總共節省了 25 億美元。

We now expect fiscal 2009 operating expenses to be between $26.7 billion and $26.9 billion. This forecast includes the $290 million in severance charges which were not in the prior forecast.

我們現在預計 2009 財年的運營費用在 267 億美元到 269 億美元之間。這一預測包括先前預測中沒有的 2.9 億美元遣散費。

We also now expect capital expenditures to come in at $3.1 billion, an additional $200 million below our January guidance, and some $900 million lower than our expectations at the beginning of the year.

我們現在還預計資本支出將達到 31 億美元，比我們 1 月份的指導低 2 億美元，比我們年初的預期低約 9 億美元。

Looking to the other drivers of earnings per share, we continue to expect an effective tax rate of 26.5% for the fourth quarter. Other income will be largely dependent on market movements.

展望每股收益的其他驅動因素，我們繼續預計第四季度的有效稅率為 26.5%。其他收入將在很大程度上取決於市場走勢。

I would like to spend a few minutes looking ahead to fiscal year '10. Our planning expectation is that macro conditions remain very challenging through the remainder of this 2009 calendar year, which covers the first half of our fiscal year.

我想花幾分鐘時間展望 10 財年。我們的計劃預期是，在 2009 日曆年的剩餘時間裡，宏觀狀況仍然非常具有挑戰性，這涵蓋了我們財政年度的上半年。

Third-party analysts generally expect continued decline in the demand for PC and server hardware, which as I called out earlier, will largely impact the non-annuity component of our Microsoft Business Division, Client and Server and Tools segments. Growth in the annuities portions of our business should still outperform non-annuity, although moderate reflecting the lower growth rate in bookings. We expect the volatility seen in emerging markets to continue.

第三方分析師普遍預計 PC 和服務器硬件需求將持續下降，正如我之前所說，這將在很大程度上影響我們微軟業務部門、客戶端和服務器以及工具部門的非年金部分。我們業務的年金部分的增長仍應優於非年金，儘管反映預訂增長率較低。我們預計新興市場的波動將持續。

In calendar year 2010 there is some potential for market conditions to improve, but it is clearly too soon to call. Many third-party economists are predicting the reemergence of GDP growth, which should favorably impact IT spend, hardware markets and advertising spend.

在 2010 日曆年，市場狀況有一些改善的潛力，但顯然還為時過早。許多第三方經濟學家預測 GDP 將重新出現增長，這將對 IT 支出、硬件市場和廣告支出產生有利影響。

We will also begin to benefit from favorable year-over-year comparables in the second half of fiscal 2010. And finally, we will begin to see the impact from the next wave of new products coming to market.

我們還將在 2010 財年下半年開始從有利的同比可比數據中受益。最後，我們將開始看到下一波新產品上市的影響。

As for COGS, cost of goods sold, next year we should expect to see continued growth, driven by increasing costs as the distribution deals we signed in fiscal year '09 ramps, and more of our business goes towards the software plus services model.

至於銷貨成本，即銷售成本，明年我們應該會看到持續增長，這是由於我們在 09 財年簽署的分銷協議增加導致成本增加，而且我們的更多業務轉向軟件加服務模式。

In January we shared with you a preliminary estimate for operating expenses in fiscal year '10 of $27.4 billion. We are currently in the process of finalizing next year's budget, and while we are looking for additional opportunities to save, we will provide you with an updated view of fiscal year '10 operating expense in July.

1 月份，我們與您分享了對 10 財年 274 億美元的運營費用的初步估計。我們目前正在敲定明年的預算，在尋找更多節省機會的同時，我們將在 7 月份為您提供 10 財年運營費用的最新視圖。

The headcount, as I mentioned in last quarter's call, we are committed to eliminating 5,000 positions by July 2010. In addition, we said we would make cuts in our cost of goods sold staffing. We are making progress on that plan and remain committed to implementing it as soon as practical.

正如我在上個季度的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們承諾在 2010 年 7 月之前裁減 5,000 個職位。此外，我們表示我們將削減銷售人員的成本。我們正在該計劃上取得進展，並繼續致力於盡快實施。

As we also said in January, we will add 2,000 to 3,000 new jobs in new high-growth areas over the next 18 months. The vast majority of these will be US workers, but we are also committed to hiring the best employees from around the world. So we will continue our visa program, albeit at a lower rate, with overall applications for H1B visas down from 20% and new hire visas down 40%.

正如我們在 1 月份所說的那樣，我們將在未來 18 個月內在新的高增長領域增加 2,000 到 3,000 個新工作崗位。其中絕大多數將是美國工人，但我們也致力於從世界各地招聘最優秀的員工。因此，我們將繼續我們的簽證計劃，儘管速度會降低，H1B 簽證的總體申請率從 20% 下降，新員工簽證的申請率下降 40%。

Cash maximization will continue to be a focus area in fiscal year '10, given our view of the economy. We are fortunate to have a business model that is exceptionally strong in cash generation. Despite the turbulent economic conditions, we are generating net cash flow from operations at an annualized rate of approximately $20 billion.

鑑於我們對經濟的看法，現金最大化將繼續成為 10 財年的重點領域。我們很幸運擁有一種在現金產生方面異常強大的商業模式。儘管經濟形勢動盪，我們仍以每年約 200 億美元的速度從運營中產生淨現金流。

We expect free cash flow to continue to exceed operating income. And this will be assisted by significantly lower CapEx spending in fiscal year '10. Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from the $3.1 billion I mentioned earlier at this fiscal year to approximately $2 billion next year.

我們預計自由現金流將繼續超過營業收入。這將得益於 10 財年顯著降低的資本支出。預計資本支出將從我在本財年早些時候提到的 31 億美元減少到明年的約 20 億美元。

We are very vigilant on customer credit issues and to date have had an extremely good collection experience.

我們對客戶的信用問題非常警惕，迄今為止，我們的收款體驗非常好。

Finally, we remain committed on returning capital to shareholders. And while stock repurchase will vary from quarter to quarter, we will remain a net purchaser of stock over the long term and a committed payer of dividends.

最後，我們仍然致力於向股東返還資本。雖然股票回購會因季度而異，但從長遠來看，我們仍將是股票的淨購買者，並承諾支付股息。

So in summary, it was a tough quarter, but I am pleased with the organization's response by managing costs and executing on our product portfolio. Over the next 18 months we will bringing a large wave of products and services to market and as such, while in the short-term our results will be impacted by the current economic conditions, we believe the long-term outlook for technology and our relative position remains very strong.

總而言之，這是一個艱難的季度，但我對組織通過管理成本和執行我們的產品組合的反應感到滿意。在接下來的 18 個月中，我們將向市場推出大量產品和服務，因此，在短期內，我們的業績將受到當前經濟狀況的影響，我們相信技術和我們相對的長期前景地位依然很強。

So with those comments, what I'm going to do is hand it back to Bill, and very happy to take your questions.

所以有了這些評論，我要做的就是把它交還給比爾，很高興回答你的問題。

Let's now proceed to questions. We want to accommodate questions from as many people as possible, so please avoid lengthy and multipart questions. And I will strictly limit you to just one question. Barb, will you please repeat your instructions?

現在讓我們繼續提問。我們希望容納盡可能多的人提出的問題，因此請避免冗長和多部分的問題。我會嚴格限制你回答一個問題。巴布，你能重複一下你的指示嗎？

(Operator Instructions). Heather Bellini, UBS.

（操作員說明）。瑞銀集團的希瑟·貝里尼。

Chris, I would just follow up on your COGS comment before. You said -- I believe you said we should expect to see continued growth, given the deals signed in fiscal year '09 ramp. I am just trying to get a sense, should we expect the -- I mean, the gross margin I think were a little bit disappointing to people this quarter. I thought that was an area where Steve mentioned at the event that you could actually expect to get a little bit of an improvement there.

克里斯，我會在之前跟進你的 COGS 評論。你說 - 我相信你說我們應該期待看到持續增長，因為在 09 財年簽署的交易有所增加。我只是想了解一下，如果我們期待 - 我的意思是，我認為本季度的毛利率讓人們有點失望。我認為這是史蒂夫在活動中提到的一個領域，你實際上可以期望在那裡得到一點改進。

We are -- relative to Steve's comment, we are looking for opportunities to make efficiency savings in that area. In fact, we've got a task force looking at that over the next quarter.

我們 - 相對於史蒂夫的評論，我們正在尋找在該領域提高效率的機會。事實上，我們有一個工作組在下個季度對此進行研究。

Having said that, that is efficiencies against a generally increasing trend as the mix of business shifts in that direction. We have clearly been make in some fairly significant investments in our data center infrastructure as we shift to a more online business and more software services. So that will start to flow through in terms of depreciation. And we have also been making some distribution transactions which I think we have announced. So you will start to see the costs care.

話雖如此，隨著業務組合向該方向轉變，效率與普遍增加的趨勢相反。隨著我們轉向更多的在線業務和更多的軟件服務，我們顯然已經對我們的數據中心基礎設施進行了一些相當大的投資。因此，這將開始以折舊方式流過。我們也一直在進行一些我認為我們已經宣布的分銷交易。因此，您將開始看到成本在意。

That is going to start growing faster than -- it is going to be growing still faster than sales?

那將開始以比銷售更快的速度增長？

Yes, I would think in particular in this environment, because we're going to see a relatively subdued environment certainly for the first half of the fiscal year. So, yes, you can assume that is the case.

是的，我會特別認為在這種環境下，因為我們肯定會在本財年的上半年看到一個相對低迷的環境。所以，是的，你可以假設是這種情況。

Adam Holt, Morgan Stanley.

亞當霍爾特，摩根士丹利。

I had a question about the Client commentary heading into the fourth quarter. I believe you mentioned that we should expect units and revenue to be in line maybe with revenue a little bit below units. And I guess I was wondering, given that the delta in this quarter between the licensing and units being pretty wide, should we expect to see that similar kind of delta as average selling prices are under pressure, do you expect that to close as we get into the quarter?

我對進入第四季度的客戶評論有疑問。我相信你提到我們應該期望單位和收入與收入一致，可能略低於單位。而且我想我想知道，鑑於本季度許可和單位之間的差異相當大，我們是否應該期望看到與平均售價相似的差異，因為平均售價面臨壓力，您是否希望我們得到進入季度？

And then just as we look a little bit further towards Win 7, what would you expect to see with the commercial and retail licensing business as we get a little bit closer to the release? I would think it would probably drop off. Thanks.

然後，正如我們對 Win 7 的看法更進一步，隨著我們離發布更近一點，您對商業和零售許可業務有何期待？我認為它可能會下降。謝謝。

Good points. In quarter four I would say you're going to see broadly the same trends as we saw in Q3. The introduction of netbooks makes it difficult for us to do our normal walk through of units and revenue, but the rule of thumb that we gave you last quarter is, if you look at the non-netbooks growth, or in this case decline, that would broadly approximate the revenue in the Client business. So the negatives we are seeing on ASP would be made up for the positives that we get from netbooks' growth.

好點。在第四季度，我會說您將看到與我們在第三季度看到的大致相同的趨勢。上網本的推出讓我們很難對單位和收入進行正常的遍歷，但我們上個季度給你的經驗法則是，如果你看看非上網本的增長，或者在這種情況下下降，那將大致接近客戶業務的收入。因此，我們在 ASP 上看到的負面影響將彌補我們從上網本增長中獲得的正面影響。

I think that is a reasonable rule of thumb going forward. The same sort of trends we will see, in terms of lower ASPs netbook growth you could expect to see. The only thing that you -- I think we will see in the fourth quarter that is probably slightly different from the third quarter is a continued pressure on the Business segment, which the Pro, which is our highest revenue generator, so we might see a little bit of a gap there.

我認為這是一個合理的經驗法則。我們將看到同樣的趨勢，就您可以預期看到的較低的 ASP 上網本增長而言。你唯一的 - 我認為我們將在第四季度看到可能與第三季度略有不同的是業務部門的持續壓力，專業人士是我們最高的收入來源，因此我們可能會看到有一點差距。

And also in the finished goods area, which you asked about for fiscal year '10, but I will just start with the fourth quarter. I think that will be a tough comparable because we had a very good performance in the fourth quarter of last year. So that might be a -- that might drag the overall growth rate down a touch as well.

還有成品區，你問的是 10 財年，但我將從第四季度開始。我認為這將是一個艱難的比較，因為我們在去年第四季度的表現非常好。因此，這可能會導致整體增長率下降。

Going into next year then the finished goods area, in particular [SBP], in the second half of the year when we start to see the Windows 7 impact, that will start to look more favorable. We are going to see a declining trend for a while, improving as we get to the back end of next fiscal year.

進入明年然後成品區，特別是 [SBP]，在下半年我們開始看到 Windows 7 的影響，這將開始看起來更有利。我們將看到一段時間的下降趨勢，隨著我們進入下一個財政年度的後端而改善。

Brad Reback, Oppenheimer.

布拉德·雷貝克，奧本海默。

Chris, you had talked about annuity rates, renewal rates, being pretty stable over the course of the quarter, and the expectation that they remain that way. Could you give us any sense of what pricing trends look like, and what you might expect them to be for the remainder of the fiscal year?

克里斯，你談到了年金率、續訂率、在本季度的過程中相當穩定，以及他們保持這種狀態的期望。您能否告訴我們定價趨勢是什麼樣的，以及您對本財年剩餘時間的預期？

The first comment I will make is that third quarter is a relatively quiet quarter for us. Fourth quarter is a very big quarter. So this will be an important quarter for us in terms of renewals, and that will feed through to what happens in fiscal year '10.

我要發表的第一條評論是，第三季度對我們來說是一個相對平靜的季度。第四季度是一個非常大的季度。因此，就續訂而言，這對我們來說將是一個重要的季度，這將影響到 10 財年發生的事情。

The experience to date is that we have seen what we described as no unnatural discounting. We are certainly seeing customers being very price conscious. But to date our renewals have been broadly in line with the revenue that is falling off from previous contracts that have been renewed at about the same rate.

迄今為止的經驗是，我們已經看到了我們所說的沒有不自然的折扣。我們當然看到客戶非常注重價格。但迄今為止，我們的續約與以前以大致相同的速度續約的合同所下降的收入基本一致。

Now what we are losing is perhaps some of the upside that we saw in previous years. So typically when we renew a contract we take the opportunity to upsell, put some of the new products into the mix. Hopefully for most customers we have seen them with more seats at the end of three years than they started it with, more employees.

現在我們正在失去的可能是我們在前幾年看到的一些好處。因此，通常當我們續簽合同時，我們會藉此機會追加銷售，將一些新產品放入組合中。希望對於大多數客戶來說，我們看到他們在三年結束時擁有比開始時更多的席位，更多的員工。

Clearly that trend is more difficult, so we are seeing customers with the same or even less employees than where they were three years ago. And while we will still be offering the new products, we might be losing some, picking up something from the new products, so overall a wash.

顯然，這種趨勢更加困難，因此我們看到客戶的員工數量與三年前相同，甚至更少。雖然我們仍將提供新產品，但我們可能會失去一些，從新產品中獲得一些東西，所以總體上是洗牌。

The general sort of environment that we are seeing is good renewal rates, no unnatural price discounting. But we have lost some of the upside, so therefore our renewals and our billings are sort of trending down to low single digits from the sort of mid double digits that we are experiencing in the last few years.

我們看到的一般環境是良好的續訂率，沒有不自然的價格折扣。但是我們已經失去了一些優勢，因此我們的續訂和我們的賬單從我們在過去幾年中經歷的那種中兩位數趨於下降到低個位數。

So still overall what I have described, in particular in this environment, is very healthy, but not sort of double digit rates we would have loved to have seen.

所以總的來說，我所描述的，特別是在這種環境下，是非常健康的，但不是我們希望看到的兩位數的利率。

Phil Winslow, Credit Suisse.

菲爾溫斯洛，瑞士信貸。

I just wanted to dig in to cost of goods sold just a little bit further, you commented on next year. I am just wondering if you could give us a sense of quarter to quarter there just what your expectations are? And that's it.

我只是想進一步挖掘銷售商品的成本，你評論了明年。我只是想知道你是否能給我們一個季度到季度的感覺，你的期望是什麼？就是這樣。

Sure. We are not giving out guidance on cost of goods sold. We will certainly give you some more color in July. But if you see the trends that have been happening in the last few quarters and extrapolate those, you can expect that to continue.

當然。我們沒有就所售商品的成本提供指導。我們一定會在七月給你更多的色彩。但是，如果您看到過去幾個季度發生的趨勢並對其進行推斷，您可以預期這種趨勢會持續下去。

Now you have to look a little bit deeper to the underlying trends. So for example, we have hardware cost of goods sold. They tend to move very much with Xbox sales. So that is one dynamic. Then you have the online cost of goods sold, and they are tending to go up as we depreciate some of the infrastructure we have put in. That tends to follow the capital expenditure that we have been talking about over the last couple of years.

現在您必須更深入地了解潛在趨勢。例如，我們有銷售商品的硬件成本。他們往往會隨著 Xbox 的銷售而發生很大變化。所以這是一種動態。然後你有在線銷售商品的成本，隨著我們貶值我們投入的一些基礎設施，它們往往會上升。這往往會跟隨我們在過去幾年中一直在談論的資本支出。

And then you've got general cost of goods sold, and things like distribution deals, which are starting to ramp up with the announcements that we have made over the last few months. So if you take those three trends and combine together and extrapolate them, you will get some sense of what fiscal year '10 will look like.

然後你有銷售商品的一般成本，以及分銷交易之類的東西，隨著我們在過去幾個月中發布的公告開始增加。因此，如果您將這三個趨勢結合在一起並進行推斷，您就會對 10 財年的情況有所了解。

Brendan Barnicle, Pacific Crest.

布倫丹·巴尼克爾，Pacific Crest。

Chris, as you are starting to think about Windows 7 and how that may be released, and we start to think about modeling that, should we look at that as the same sort of tech guarantee program that we had with Vista, and as a result that same impact on deferred revenue, or would there be any change maybe more like what was done in earlier OS releases?

克里斯，當您開始考慮 Windows 7 以及如何發布它時，我們開始考慮對其建模，我們是否應該將其視為與 Vista 相同的技術保證計劃，結果對遞延收入有同樣的影響，還是會有任何變化可能更像早期操作系統版本中所做的那樣？

We obviously haven't finalized all those details. It is not unreasonable to assume that we would do a tech guarantee at some stage. But the exact timing of that will depend on clearly the release time of the product itself. And that could cause some interquarter accounting recognition issues, but not a significant issue. Obviously, it will wash out over the course of the year.

我們顯然還沒有敲定所有這些細節。假設我們會在某個階段提供技術保證並不是不合理的。但具體時間將取決於產品本身的發佈時間。這可能會導致一些季度間會計確認問題，但不是一個重大問題。顯然，它會在一年中消失。

Yes, you can assume that from a modeling point of view, if you are looking over the long-term, it won't have any impact.

是的，您可以假設從建模的角度來看，如果您從長遠來看，它不會產生任何影響。

Might it be -- see its effect in the shorter period than we saw with Vista?

可能是——在比我們在 Vista 中看到的更短的時間內看到它的效果？

Too early to tell. I think that a similar period is how I would assume.

說得太早了。我認為類似的時期是我的假設。

Sarah Friar, Goldman Sachs.

莎拉·弗萊爾，高盛。

Chris, if I could just take you back more to sort of a macro view, I feel like you've given us more color than last quarter. Is there anything in the linearity of the quarter that made you feel a little bit better as you got towards the end of March?

克里斯，如果我能帶你更多地回顧一下宏觀觀點，我覺得你給了我們比上個季度更多的色彩。當你接近三月底時，本季度的線性中有什麼讓你感覺好一點的嗎？

And in particular, as I kind of think of even just the guidance you have given us, you have clearly given us a lot more color this time around than you gave us back in January. It feels like you are signaling that maybe you feel you have your arms around it better. Is that a fair or unfair way to think about it?

特別是，當我想到你給我們的指導時，你這次給我們的顯然比一月份給我們的要多得多。感覺就像你在發出信號，也許你覺得你的手臂更好地摟著它。這是一種公平或不公平的思考方式嗎？

A couple of comments. Firstly, this is the quarter we typically start to talk about fiscal year '10. So I am give you a little bit more color, because I'm trying to give you some sense of the fiscal year for next year, as opposed to what is just happening for the next quarter. So you are picking up that.

一些評論。首先，這是我們通常開始談論 10 財年的季度。所以我要給你更多的色彩，因為我試圖讓你對明年的財政年度有所了解，而不是下個季度剛剛發生的事情。所以你正在接受它。

The second, in terms of linearity, (inaudible) learning things like second derivatives and what they mean. How do I feel about the shape of the quarter? I didn't see any improvement at the end of the quarter that gives me encouragement that we are at a bottom and coming out of it.

第二，就線性而言，（聽不清）學習諸如二階導數之類的東西及其含義。我如何看待季度的形狀？在本季度末，我沒有看到任何改善，這讓我感到鼓舞的是，我們處於底部並從中走出來。

I would like to think that trading conditions will not get any worse than where they were in the third quarter. But hopefully my commentary gives you some sense that we expect them to continue in the fourth quarter and second half of the year, a little bit early to tell, but probably continue to be tough as well.

我認為交易條件不會比第三季度更糟。但希望我的評論能給你一些感覺，我們預計它們將在今年第四季度和下半年繼續，雖然有點早，但可能也會繼續艱難。

If you like, during the quarter they stopped getting worse. But that is different from they started getting better. And I think that is a safe assumption for the fourth quarter.

如果你願意，在本季度他們停止惡化。但這與他們開始變得更好不同。我認為這是第四季度的安全假設。

And US versus Europe, just the two very major geographies, any particular differences between the two?

美國與歐洲，只是兩個非常重要的地區，兩者之間有什麼特別的區別嗎？

No, not between US and Europe, or Western Europe anyway. Eastern Europe very weak, places like Russia, particularly weak. Japan very weak. Brazil very weak. So some of the areas where a year ago we were talking about extremely good growth rates, countries like Russia, particularly had extremely good growth rates a year ago have gone the other way.

不，不是在美國和歐洲之間，也不是在西歐之間。東歐很弱，像俄羅斯這樣的地方特別弱。日本很弱。巴西很弱。因此，一年前我們談論的增長率非常高的一些地區，比如俄羅斯，尤其是一年前增長率非常高的國家，卻走向了相反的方向。

So the US and Western Europe, a very similar picture, weak, but not significantly. When you go into Eastern Europe and emerging markets, the picture is generally worse.

所以美國和西歐的情況非常相似，弱，但不顯著。當你進入東歐和新興市場時，情況通常會更糟。

John DiFucci, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰·迪福奇。

Chris, last quarter you said that Client saw a 2% headwind, because the channel inventories were below normal levels. It looks like the OEM license unit growth was about 2% better than PC unit growth. I am just curious, is that all inventory making up for the inventory last channel and were the inventory today, or is there something else happening there also?

克里斯，上個季度你說客戶看到了 2% 的逆風，因為渠道庫存低於正常水平。看起來 OEM 許可證單位的增長比 PC 單位的增長高出約 2%。我只是好奇，是所有庫存都彌補了最後一個渠道的庫存，還是今天的庫存，還是那裡也發生了其他事情？

There is a combination effect. It is inventories, one of them. Attach weights rates were actually quite good in the quarter. So not only because of the netbooks impact, we have an exceptionally high netbooks attach now, above 90%, I believe. But we also saw good attach in the non-netbooks segment as well.

有組合效應。這是庫存，其中之一。本季度的附加權重率實際上相當不錯。所以不僅僅是因為上網本的影響，我們現在的上網本附加值非常高，我相信超過 90%。但我們在非上網本領域也看到了良好的連接。

There is a few variables moving there, inventory being one of them. I think was a slight negative (inaudible) inventory, but attach rate was particularly positive. That led to the impact that you have seen.

那裡有一些變數，庫存就是其中之一。我認為這是一個輕微的負面（聽不見）庫存，但附加率特別積極。這導致了你所看到的影響。

So just to be clear though, so inventory had the 2% headwind last quarter, and you saw another small headwind again this quarter as an inventory levels actually got a little lower?

所以要明確一點，所以上個季度庫存有 2% 的逆風，而本季度你又看到了另一個小的逆風，因為庫存水平實際上有點低？

Correct.

正確的。

Brent Thill, Citigroup.

花旗集團的布倫特希爾。

Your expense controls are significantly ahead of your plan you just gave just two months ago. How do you think about the next phase of expense control? And I know you mentioned you're not going to give 2010 guidance, but I think the way that you guys mentioned to think about it is that it would be flat in '09 with 2010. I think we are assuming that number that you have given us now is flat for 2010.

您的費用控制大大超出了您兩個月前剛剛制定的計劃。您如何看待下一階段的費用控制？我知道你提到你不會給出 2010 年的指導，但我認為你們提到的思考方式是 09 年與 2010 年持平。我認為我們假設你有這個數字鑑於我們現在與 2010 年持平。

Can you just help us clarify if there is anything else that you plan to spend ahead of some of these major launches that would change that trajectory that you just gave us two months ago?

您能否幫我們澄清一下，在這些重大發布之前，您是否還計劃花費其他任何東西來改變您兩個月前剛剛給我們的軌跡？

I will give you a bit of overall context about how I think about the savings in general, and then I can answer your question specifically. I think you have probably heard me say that in this Company and in the previous companies I worked in, I have always felt that the best cost savings programs are ones that are a combination of our how I describe it top-down and bottom-up. Top-down being basically, we are going to cut headcount by X. We are going to cut travel expenditure by Y. And these are the new rules.

我會給你一些關於我如何看待一般儲蓄的整體背景，然後我可以具體回答你的問題。我想你可能聽我說過，在這家公司和我以前工作過的公司中，我一直認為最好的成本節約計劃是我描述的自上而下和自下而上的結合。 .自上而下基本上，我們將裁員 X。我們將減少差旅支出 Y。這些是新規則。

The bottom-up is how then employees actually apply those rules to how they run the business. Now when I gave you the numbers a couple of months or three months ago effectively for this year, that was the sum total of our top-down initiatives.

自下而上是員工如何將這些規則實際應用於他們經營業務的方式。現在，當我在幾個月或三個月前為您提供今年有效的數字時，這就是我們自上而下舉措的總和。

So if employees implemented them exactly how -- implemented the rules exactly how we told them, effectively you would have had that number. The fact that we have been able to achieve operating expense savings in excess of that is really a credit to people implementing them in an even more extreme fashions. So they had traveled even less than what we have asked them to. They have taken vendor cost savings even more than what we have asked them. And we have ramped headcount even slower than what we were anticipating.

因此，如果員工完全按照我們告訴他們的方式執行規則，那麼您實際上就會得到這個數字。事實上，我們已經能夠實現超過這一點的運營費用節省，這確實是人們以更極端的方式實施它們的功勞。所以他們旅行的次數甚至比我們要求的還要少。他們為供應商節省的成本比我們要求的還要多。而且我們增加員工人數的速度甚至比我們預期的還要慢。

So I don't bank the bottom-up on a continual basis. I only bank what I have described as the top-down. So my starting position for fiscal year '10 remains where it was in dollar terms a quarter ago.

因此，我不會持續自下而上地進行存款。我只存入我所說的自上而下的東西。所以我在 10 財年的起始位置仍然是一個季度前以美元計算的位置。

Having said that, if we get a cultural change and employees continue to have fiscal responsibility and implement the rules in a very efficient fashion, then we could see a lower number.

話雖如此，如果我們進行文化變革並且員工繼續承擔財務責任並以非常有效的方式執行規則，那麼我們可能會看到更少的數字。

I'm not going to promise that to you at this quarter. That will be part of what we do in the budgeting round. But I would be starting next year with the number I gave you last quarter. And hopefully we can beat that when we talk to you about it in three months' time.

我不會在本季度向你承諾。這將是我們在預算回合中所做的一部分。但我將從明年開始使用上個季度給你的數字。希望我們能在三個月後與您討論它時擊敗它。

Tim Klasell, Thomas Weisel Partners.

蒂姆·克拉塞爾，托馬斯·韋塞爾合夥人。

I just wanted to go over to the Microsoft Business Division, where you said on Office you had a higher attach rate but lower ASPs and lower units. Is that lower unit -- excuse me, lower ASP and higher attach rate going to be something you will want to do permanently, i.e., if units begin to pick back up, we can model it like that? Or do you think we might see the ASPs begin to increase after the release of some of the next version or if the economy gets better?

我只是想去微軟業務部門，你說在 Office 上你有更高的附加率，但更低的 ASP 和更低的單位。那個較低的單元 - 對不起，較低的 ASP 和較高的附加率將是您永久想要做的事情，即，如果單元開始回升，我們可以這樣建模嗎？或者你認為我們可能會看到 ASP 在下一個版本發布後開始增加，或者如果經濟好轉？

There was two impacts last quarter that had ASP, and what (technical difficulty) (inaudible) talk about how you could expect them going forward. The first was that we just had a price decrease, where we took the opportunity to have a special price. And that certainly, we've got a volume pickup as a result of that, but a lower ASP. You won't see that as a permanent basis. That was something that we did for a quarter or so. That was one thing.

上個季度對 ASP 產生了兩個影響，以及（技術難度）（聽不清）談論您如何期望它們繼續發展。首先是我們剛剛降價了，我們趁機打了個特價。當然，我們的銷量因此而有所回升，但平均售價較低。您不會將其視為永久的基礎。這是我們做了一個季度左右的事情。那是一回事。

The second was that we generally saw a continued buying activity in the lower price points, and less buying activity in the higher price points, because of the worst business PC growth. So if you like, you saw a mix change to a lower SKU. Again, that is really going to be driven in the future by not our action, but by how PCs -- business PCs recover through next year. I think it is going to continue to be relatively weak for the foreseeable future. And I think I foreshadowed that in my overall comments.

第二個是我們普遍看到較低價格點的購買活動持續，而較高價格點的購買活動減少，因為商用 PC 增長最差。因此，如果您願意，您會看到混合更改為較低的 SKU。同樣，未來真正推動這一切的不是我們的行動，而是個人電腦——商用個人電腦如何在明年恢復。我認為在可預見的未來它將繼續相對疲軟。我認為我在我的整體評論中預示了這一點。

Going into the releases the next calendar year, I would like to think that business PC demand is hopefully going to be picking back up by then. Plus we will have the new release, so you will start to see that trend come back the other way. But it is going to be some time.

進入下一個日曆年的發布，我想商業 PC 需求有望在那時回升。另外，我們將發布新版本，因此您將開始看到這種趨勢以另一種方式回歸。但這將是一段時間。

Kash Rangan, Merrill Lynch.

卡什蘭根，美林證券。

Chris, you made a comment earlier that you are looking forward to launching a countercyclical wave of products the next 18 to 24 months. I was wondering if you could expand upon that, and also talk about, to the extent that you can on a quarterly earnings conference call, what kind of changes we should anticipate to the business model as well, and associated with that. Thanks.

克里斯，您之前發表評論說，您期待在未來 18 到 24 個月推出一波反週期產品。我想知道您是否可以對此進行擴展，並在季度收益電話會議上盡可能地談論我們應該對商業模式進行什麼樣的變化以及與之相關的變化。謝謝。

Sure. It is difficult to be launching a massive wave of products into a weakening demand. So that is why I have described as the countercyclical. But when you look across virtually all of our businesses, there is going to be a major release of some form or other in the next year. The most obvious is Windows 7, clearly, which has been well foreshadowed. Office will be coming out with a new version. Exchange will be coming out with a new version. We've got a potentially new search product coming out in the foreseeable future.

當然。很難在需求疲軟的情況下推出大量產品。這就是為什麼我將其描述為反週期的。但是，當您查看我們幾乎所有的業務時，明年將會有某種形式或其他形式的主要版本。最明顯的是Windows 7，顯然，它已經做好了充分的準備。 Office 將推出新版本。 Exchange 將推出新版本。在可預見的未來，我們可能會推出一種新的搜索產品。

So you will see in all of our major products a significant release in the next, let's say, 12 months. Now that is going to be into a soft demand environment potentially. But we think it is absolutely the right thing to do. And clearly that is an investment that is driven around our product development portfolio, not the economic cycle. But once we start to get economic pickup, we think that we will outperform that economic pickup.

因此，您將在接下來的 12 個月內，在我們所有的主要產品中看到重要的發布。現在，這可能會進入軟需求環境。但我們認為這絕對是正確的做法。顯然，這是一項圍繞我們的產品開發組合驅動的投資，而不是經濟周期。但是一旦我們開始獲得經濟回升，我們認為我們的表現將超過經濟回升。

At the moment it is really about surviving the economic reset, going into a growth period, which will I like to think is going to be around the corner at some stage. We will actually be going into that growth pickup with a very, very good set of new products. And so the environment one to two years out starts to look much more interesting.

目前，這真的是關於在經濟重置中倖存下來，進入一個增長期，我認為這將在某個階段指日可待。實際上，我們將通過一組非常非常好的新產品進入增長加速期。因此，一到兩年後的環境開始看起來更有趣。

Also, the business model changes associated with that product rollout?

此外，與該產品推出相關的商業模式變化？

The ones that I mentioned that might be a significant business model are the ones that you will see -- the Windows Azure, also will be generally released over that period. So that will start to change the business model. You will start to see more online driven versions of some of our key products. So that will start to change the business model.

我提到的可能是一個重要的商業模式的那些是你將看到的——Windows Azure，通常也會在那個時期發布。所以這將開始改變商業模式。您將開始看到我們一些關鍵產品的更多在線驅動版本。所以這將開始改變商業模式。

But the revenue impacts of that are going to be relatively modest, certainly in fiscal year '10. That is more of a fiscal year '11 and '12 impact in terms of significance.

但是，這對收入的影響將相對溫和，肯定是在 10 財年。就重要性而言，這更像是 11 財年和 12 財年的影響。

Robert Breza, RBC Capital Markets.

羅伯特·布雷扎，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Chris, just a follow-up to Sarah's question about the geography weakness that you mentioned in some of those countries. Are you specifically talking about the transaction business, the annuity business or both? Just kind of follow-up on that. Thanks.

克里斯，只是莎拉關於你提到的一些國家的地理薄弱問題的後續行動。您是指交易業務、年金業務還是兩者兼而有之？只是一種跟進。謝謝。

I tend to look at the transactional business, because it is probably more of an indicator of the instantaneous economic activity in their particular country, although the blended rate is also the same basic trend. But my comments were in particular around transactional.

我傾向於關注交易業務，因為它可能更像是他們特定國家即時經濟活動的指標，儘管混合率也是相同的基本趨勢。但我的評論尤其是關於交易的。

So you tend to obviously see in countries like Russia, it is more driven around transactional anyway. There isn't a strong enterprise agreement driven part of that economy yet. So the transactional tends to be a higher component. And particularly when I was mentioning countries I was thinking about that.

因此，您顯然會在俄羅斯等國家/地區看到，無論如何，它更多地是圍繞交易進行的。目前還沒有一個強有力的企業協議驅動該經濟體。所以事務性往往是一個更高的組成部分。特別是當我提到我正在考慮的國家時。

Operator, let's take one more question.

接線員，讓我們再問一個問題。

Katherine Egbert, Jefferies.

凱瑟琳·埃格伯特，傑富瑞。

Chris, you didn't repurchase any stock this quarter. Can you talk about your approach to capital? Is this environmental driven or is there another reason?

克里斯，你本季度沒有回購任何股票。你能談談你對資本的態度嗎？這是環境驅動還是有其他原因？

It is generally environmental. I think I foreshadowed that at the last call that we would be generally more cautious in this current environment in terms of building up our cash reserves.

一般是環保的。我想我在上次電話會議中預示，在當前環境下，我們在建立現金儲備方面通常會更加謹慎。

I'm happy on the flip side to lower share repurchases to have built cash and investment back over $25 billion. So we put back around $9 billion of stock this fiscal year, and paid out around $3 billion of dividends. So we have returned about $12 billion.

另一方面，我很高興降低股票回購，從而使現金和投資恢復了超過 250 億美元。因此，我們本財年收回了大約 90 億美元的股票，並支付了大約 30 億美元的股息。所以我們已經返還了大約 120 億美元。

Going forward, as I think I have said consistently, we still will be a net purchaser of our shares. We are still committed to paying dividends, so we are still committed to repaying our cash as much as possible.

展望未來，正如我一直所說的那樣，我們仍將是我們股票的淨購買者。我們仍然致力於支付股息，因此我們仍然致力於盡可能多地償還我們的現金。

But it is going to vary quarter by quarter. And it is going to depend enormously on the environment we find ourselves in, and things like our working capital management as well. But overall one of the great positives of the Company, which I mentioned briefly in my prepared remarks, is just the overall cash flow. We are generating free cash flow at around a $20 billion annualized rate, which is tremendous in this environment. So there is no reason to suspect that over the medium to long term we won't continue to be net buyers of our shares.

但它會因季度而異。這將在很大程度上取決於我們所處的環境，以及我們的營運資金管理等事情。但總體而言，我在準備好的評論中簡要提到的公司最大的積極因素之一就是整體現金流。我們正在以每年約 200 億美元的速度產生自由現金流，這在這種環境下是巨大的。因此，沒有理由懷疑在中長期內我們不會繼續成為我們股票的淨買家。

That will wrap up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. Remember that you can access this call on the Microsoft Investor Central website at www.Microsoft.com/MSFT. Again, thanks for joining us, and have a good day.

這將結束今天財報電話會議的問答部分。請記住，您可以在 Microsoft 投資者中心網站 www.Microsoft.com/MSFT 上訪問此電話。再次感謝您加入我們，祝您有美好的一天。

That concludes today's call. Please disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路。